###SATELLITE

url<-"http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2"
g<-read.table(url,skip=5,nrow=320)
NH<-ts(g[,4],start=c(1978,12),end=c(2005,7),freq=12)
N<-length(NH);N #321

GL<-ts(g[,3],start=c(1978,12),end=c(2005,7),freq=12)
	
###PLOT
test.GL<-arima(GL,order=c(1,0,1),include.mean=FALSE)
  	#        ar1      ma1
	#      0.9257  -0.3183
	#s.e.  0.0241   0.0571

	#sigma^2 estimated as 0.01217:  log likelihood = 250.71,  aic = -495.43

predict.GL<-predict(test.GL,n.ahead=120)
	par(mar=c(4,4,2,2))
	plot.ts(GL,xlim=c(1977,2017),xlab="",ylab="Anomaly deg C")
	lines(seq(2005+8.5/12,2005+10+7.5/12,1/12),predict.GL$pred,col="red")
	lines(seq(1978+11.5/12,2005+6.5/12,1/12),GL-test.GL$residuals,col="red")
	lines(seq(1978+11.5/12,2015+6.5/12,1/12),-24.29584+ 0.01222 *seq(1978+11.5/12,2015+6.5/12,1/12),col="blue")