###EMANUEL 2005 ##LOAD HURRICANE DATA cwd.data<-"c:/climate/data/hurricane" load(file.path(cwd.data,"Track.ATL.tab")) dim(Track) load(file.path(cwd.data,"hurricane.ATL.tab")) dim(hurricane) hurricane$id<-10000+hurricane$id Track$wind.ms<- 0.5139861 * Track$wind # m sec-1 Track$id<-10000+Track$id Track.ATL<-Track;hurricane.ATL<-hurricane load(file.path(cwd.data,"Track.WPAC.tab")) dim(Track) load(file.path(cwd.data,"hurricane.WPAC.tab")) dim(hurricane) Track$wind.ms<- 0.5139861 * Track$wind # m sec-1 conversion Track$id<-20000+Track$id hurricane$id<-20000+hurricane$id Track.WPAC<-Track;hurricane.WPAC<-hurricane Track<-rbind(Track.ATL,Track.WPAC) hurricane<-rbind(hurricane.ATL,hurricane.WPAC) #Emanuel says: #The annual average storm peak wind speed #summed over the North Atlantic and eastern and western North #Pacific has also increased during this period, by about 50%. hurricane$peakwind<-NA temp<-(Track$wind.ms>18)&!is.na(Track$wind.ms) test<-tapply(Track$wind.ms[temp],Track$id[temp],max,na.rm=T) x<-as.numeric(names(test)); temp<-(x<15000); hurricane$peakwind [x[temp]-10000]<-c(test[x[temp]-10000])/4 temp<-(x>15000) hurricane$peakwind [hurricane$id>15000][x[temp]-20000]<-c(test[x[temp]-20000])/4 temp<-(hurricane$id<15000) peakwind.ATL<-tapply(hurricane$peakwind [temp],hurricane$year[temp],mean,na.rm=T) temp<-(hurricane$id>15000);sum(temp) peakwind.WPAC<-tapply(hurricane$peakwind [temp],hurricane$year[temp],mean,na.rm=T) peakwind.TOT<-tapply(hurricane$peakwind ,hurricane$year,mean,na.rm=T) nf<-layout(array(1:3,dim=c(1,3)),widths=c(1.2,1.1,1.1)) par(mar=c(3,3,1,1)) plot(1949:2006,peakwind.ATL[(1949:2006)-1850],type="h",xlim=c(1945,2006),ylim=c(4,15)) lines(2005:2006,peakwind.ATL[(2005:2006)-1850],type="h",col="red") par(mar=c(3,1,1,1)) plot(1949:2006,peakwind.WPAC[(1949:2006)-1944],type="h",xlim=c(1945,2006),ylim=c(4,15)) lines(2005:2006,peakwind.WPAC[(2005:2006)-1944],type="h",col="red") par(mar=c(3,1,1,1)) plot(1949:2006,peakwind.TOT[(1949:2006)-1850],type="h",xlim=c(1945,2006),ylim=c(4,15)) lines(2005:2006,peakwind.TOT[(2005:2006)-1850],type="h",col="red") ##FIGURE WITH TREND LINES nf<-layout(array(1:3,dim=c(1,3)),widths=c(1.2,1.1,1.1)) par(mar=c(3,3,1,1)) plot(1945:2006,peakwind.ATL[(1945:2006)-1850],type="h",xlim=c(1945,2006),ylim=c(4,15)) lines(2005:2006,peakwind.ATL[(2005:2006)-1850],type="h",col="red") year0<-1949:2004;fm<-lm( peakwind.ATL[(1949:2004)-1850]~year0);summary(fm); lines(year0,fm$fitted.values) fm$fitted.values[2004-1948]/fm$fitted.values[1] #1.158982 par(mar=c(3,1,1,1)) plot(1945:2006,peakwind.WPAC[(1945:2006)-1944],type="h",xlim=c(1945,2006),ylim=c(4,15)) lines(2005:2006,peakwind.WPAC[(2005:2006)-1944],type="h",col="red") year0<-1949:2004;fm<-lm( peakwind.WPAC[(1949:2004)-1944]~year0);summary(fm); lines(year0,fm$fitted.values) fm$fitted.values[2004-1948]/fm$fitted.values[1] #0.8605246 peakwind.WPAC[2004-1944]/peakwind.WPAC[1949-1944] #1.658683 par(mar=c(3,1,1,1)) plot(1945:2006,peakwind.TOT[(1945:2006)-1850],type="h",xlim=c(1944,2006),ylim=c(4,15)) lines(2005:2006,peakwind.TOT[(2005:2006)-1850],type="h",col="red") year0<-1949:2004;fm<-lm( peakwind.TOT[(1949:2004)-1850]~year0);summary(fm); lines(year0,fm$fitted.values) fm$fitted.values[2004-1948]/fm$fitted.values[1] #1.110622 peakwind.TOT[2004-1850]/peakwind.TOT[1948-1850] #1.192501 mean(peakwind.TOT[(2000:2004)-1850])/mean(peakwind.TOT[(1946:1950)-1850]) # 1.067626 lines(1946:1950, rep(mean(peakwind.TOT[(1946:1950)-1850]),5),col="blue",lwd=2) lines(2000:2004, rep(mean(peakwind.TOT[(2000:2004)-1850]),5),col="blue",lwd=2)