for the last 1000 years we have been in areas where we see  temperature as warm or warmer. like for eaxmple

that is ther are nature factors, fluctuations in the sun, volcanoes and so 


emanuel<-read.table("c:/climate/data/hurricane/emanuel.txt",sep=",")
dimnames(emanuel)[[2]]<-c("year","pdi","sst","adj.pdi")



fm<-lm(emanuel[,2]~emanuel[,3])
summary(fm)

             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)  -341.777     92.519  -3.694 0.000523 ***
emanuel[, 3]   12.637      3.311   3.817 0.000355 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 

Residual standard error: 6.424 on 53 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-Squared: 0.2156,     Adjusted R-squared: 0.2008 
F-statistic: 14.57 on 1 and 53 DF,  p-value: 0.0003555 

arima(emanuel[,2],order=c(1,0,1))

          ar1     ma1  intercept
      -0.5762  0.7738    11.3528
s.e.   0.2553  0.1860     1.0504

arima(emanuel[,2],order=c(1,0,0))
         ar1  intercept
      0.1014    11.3612
s.e.  0.1360     1.0613


arima(emanuel[,4],order=c(1,0,1))


arima(emanuel[,3],order=c(1,0,1))
         ar1      ma1  intercept
      0.9065  -0.7013    27.9841
s.e.  0.1274   0.2033     0.1049

arima(emanuel[,3],order=c(1,0,0))
       0.3475    27.9486
s.e.  0.1344     0.0506

 
arima(fm$residuals,order=c(1,0,1))
          ar1     ma1  intercept
      -0.6182  0.8179    -0.0098
s.e.   0.2824  0.2058     0.9238


nf<-layout(array(1:3,dim=c(3,1)),heights=c(1.1,1,1.3))
par(mar=c(0,3,1,1))
plot(emanuel[,1],emanuel[,2],type="l",axes=FALSE)
axis(side=1,labels=FALSE);axis(side=2,las=1);box()
lines(emanuel[,1],emanuel[,4],col="red")
fm<-lm(emanuel[,2]~emanuel[,1])
lines(emanuel[,1],fm$fitted.values,col="blue")
text(1970,28,pos=4,font=2,"PDI")

par(mar=c(0,3,0,1))
plot(emanuel[,1],emanuel[,3],type="l",axes=FALSE)
axis(side=1,labels=FALSE);axis(side=2,las=1);box()
fm<-lm(emanuel[,3]~emanuel[,1])
lines(emanuel[,1],fm$fitted.values,col="blue")
text(1970,28.4,pos=4,font=2,"SST")

par(mar=c(3,3,0,1))
fm<-lm(emanuel[,2]~emanuel[,3])
 plot(emanuel[,1],fm$residuals,type="h",lwd=2)
text(1970,15,pos=4,font=2,"Residuals: PDI~SST")


arima(fm$residuals,order=c(2,0,0))