From: Pierre Francus To: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: Re: Key new IPCC relevant paleo-science Date: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 07:03:50 -0400 Cc: Steve Colman , Eystein Jansen , Jonathan Overpeck , Tim Osborn , Fortunat Joos , David Rind , Stefan Rahmstorf , Bette Otto-Bleisner , "cddhr@giss.nasa.gov" , Ricardo Villalba , "Jouzel@dsm-mail.extra.cea.fr" , Valerie Masson-Delmotte , Dominique Raynaud , Keith Briffa , Phil Jones , "jean-claude.duplessy@lsce.cnrs-gif.fr" , "dolago@uonbi.ac.ke" , "peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca" , "rramesh@prl.res.in" , "olgasolomina@yandex.ru" , "derzhang@msn.com" , Heinz Wanner , Thorsten Kiefer , Eric W Wolff , "fatima.abrantes@ineti.pt" , "j.dearing@soton.ac.uk" , "jose_carriquiry@uabc.mx" , "moha_umero@yahoo.com" , Michael Schulz , "nakatsuka.takeshi@f.mbox.nagoya-u.ac.jp" , Bette Otto-Bliesner , "peter.kershaw@arts.monash.edu.au" , Francus Pierre , Whitlock Cathy , "zlding@mail.iggcas.ac.cn" , Laurent Labeyrie , Gavin Schmidt Dear all, I guess one point that can be outlined for the next IPCC report is about the regional differences in climate change and variability. We can see that in the paleo record, and it is very clear from the work of the PAGES "last 2k regional groups". There is for instance a new Arctic 2k summary in Journal of Paleolimnology (Kauffman et al 2009), and another paper in prep (I guess you are co-author Peck). All the best Pierre ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pierre Francus Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique Centre Eau, Terre et Environnement 490 rue de la couronne, Québec, QC G1K 9A9, CANADA Membre du GEOTOP, Membre associé du CEN, PAGES SSC member [1]pfrancus@ete.inrs.ca â 1-418-654-3780 Fax: 1-418-654-2600 Personnal web page: [2]http://www.inrs-ete.uquebec.ca/professeur.php?page=PierreFrancus Laboratory : [3]http://www.ete.inrs.ca/profs/pf/itrax/home.htm PASADO-CANADA: [4]http://www2.ete.inrs.ca/pasado/PASADO-Canada/Welcome.html GEOTOP: [5]http://www.geotop.uqam.ca/ CEN: [6]http://www.cen.ulaval.ca/ PAGES: [7]http://www.pages.unibe.ch/ On 21-avr.-09, at 16:42, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Thanks Steve and friends I still need to read all the feedback, and appreciate it. I think you hit on a biggie that paleo provides critical evaluations of model realism. With regard to the others, the key for inclusion in an IPCC assessment, is to synthesize the published literature in a way that informs policy makers (the top audience) on what is happening in the climate system, and more important even what will happen in the he climate system. Taking the terrific speleothem work for example, what are the key lessons that are NEW and important to highlight to policy makers? This is the kind of relevant science we need to compile/highlight. Itâs harder than at first glance, but thatâs ok quality of relevant issues is more important than quantity. Again, thanks all for taking this exercise seriously. Feel free to seek input from colleagues, although please help us by only sending what you think has a chance of fitting with the criteria above it is unclear if there will be time for anyone to read all the strong literature that has come out since mid-2006, so please summarize each key point with a couple sentence bullet, the complete reference (maybe even send the pdf), and if you think the key point isnât easy to understand to a non-paleo person â a little (e.g., para) supporting text, w/ a key figure if you think it really helps. Best, peck On 4/16/09 1:48 PM, "Steve Colman" <[8]scolman@d.umn.edu> wrote: Dear Peck and Eystein, I tend to agree with Stefan that it would be conceptually nice to weave paleo-science into all the chapters of the next report, but that, as a practical matter, a tighter focus on paleo results would have more impact. Most people seem to accept that past history is the only way to assess what the climate system can actually do (e.g., how fast it can change). However, I think that the fact that reconstructed history provides the only calibration or test of models (beyond verification of modern simulations) is under-appreciated. In terms of recent or near-future new results, I think that two areas of continental paleoclimate research are exciting: (1) the new speleothem records, which are producing extremely high-resolution, well-dated hitories, especially in monsoon areas; and (2) the network of long-term continental climate histories coming from drill cores in lakes (Titicaca, Malawi, Bosumtwi, Peten Itza, Qinghai, El' gygytgyn) is reaching the point where stimulating syntheses may be possible. Best, Steve Colman Professor of Geological Sciences and Director, Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth RLB 2205 E. 5th St., Duluth, MN 55812; Ph: 218-726-6723; fax -6979 [9]www.d.umn.edu/llo <[10]http://www.d.umn.edu/llo> Jonathan T. Overpeck Co-Director, Institute for Environment and Society Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for Environment and Society 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 Email: [11]jto@u.arizona.edu PA Lou Regalado +1 520 792-8712 [12]regalado@email.arizona.edu References 1. mailto:pfrancus@ete.inrs.ca 2. http://www.inrs-ete.uquebec.ca/professeur.php?page=PierreFrancus 3. http://www.ete.inrs.ca/profs/pf/itrax/home.htm 4. http://www2.ete.inrs.ca/pasado/PASADO-Canada/Welcome.html 5. http://www.geotop.uqam.ca/ 6. http://www.cen.ulaval.ca/ 7. http://www.pages.unibe.ch/ 8. file://localhost/tmp/scolman@d.umn.edu 9. http://www.d.umn.edu/llo 10. http://www.d.umn.edu/llo 11. file://localhost/tmp/jto@u.arizona.edu 12. file://localhost/tmp/regalado@email.arizona.edu