From: Phil Jones To: "Darch, Geoff J" Subject: RE: Probabilistic information to inform EA decision making - Draft Bid Date: Thu May 22 17:18:09 2008 Geoff, Hopefully this will do. No narrative. Off home now. I'll look through anything you send tomorrow. Exam scripts to mark tonight. Cheers Phil At 17:00 22/05/2008, you wrote: Phil, The only CV we have for you is a few years old. Can you send a more up to date one (6 pages max). Thanks, Geoff ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 22 May 2008 13:07 To: Darch, Geoff J Cc: Clare Goodess; t.osborn@uea.ac.uk; McSweeney, Robert Subject: RE: Probabilistic information to inform EA decision making - Draft Bid Geoff, Rob, Will you be sending another version around at some time? I can't recall where the idea of two sets of costings came from. Here are some more thoughts Related EA work Drought work Jones, P.D., Leadbetter, A., Osborn, T.J. and Bloomfield, J.P., 2006: The impact of climate change on severe droughts: River-flow reconstructions and implied groundwater levels. Science Report: SC040068/SR2, Environment Agency, 58pp. Wade, S., Jones, P.D. and Osborn, T.J., 2006: The impact of climate change on severe droughts: Implications for decision making. Science Report: SC040068/SR3, Environment Agency, 86pp. These two bits of work related to historic records of drought on the Eden and the Ouse (Anglian). Flows were reconstructed on a monthly basis back to 1800, and the disaggregated to daily using months with similar monthly flows in the modern record from the 1960s to the near present. The 200 years of daily flows were then put through water resource system models in the two areas to see how often drought restrictions occurred. The historic record was then perturbed for the future time slices using three different GCMs. The important aspect of this work is that for both regions the perturbed futures were no worse than the historic droughts. On the Eden some recent droughts were the most severe and on the Ouse they were earlier in the 20th and in the 19th century. So, for all work, it is important to get a better handle on the scale of natural variability within each region. Task 6 should not just consider the instrumental observations that UKCIP08 has looked at (i.e. since 1961). This period will very likely cover all temperature extremes (if we forget the very cold ones), but it will be inadequate for rainfall (changes in daily, monthly and seasonal extremes). The EA work (above) showed a framework for dealing with the issue with respect to drought. The longer daily precipitation record has been looked at by Tim Osborn and Douglas Maraun (see attached pdf). Task emphasizes floods exclusively - maybe this is their responsibility and they leave droughts up to the companies. One aspect that we could develop within Task 6 is a simple soil moisture accounting model using rainfall and PET and a measure of soil amount. The results from this could then be linked with the heavy rainfall to determine different impacts depending on antecedent conditions and time of year. CRU's work on Task 7 We will be able to use the 11 RCMs on which the whole of UKCIP08 are based - available through LINK. MOHC have used emulation of these to build up distributions. An important aspect is to see for seasons and variables how the 11 span the probability domain of all the emulations (where do they sit in the pdfs). Other GCMs - this should really be RCMs. In the ENSEMBLES project we are comparing trends in reality with trends from ERA-40-forced runs of 15 different RCMs across Europe. This will be able to show that HadRM3 is within the range of the other RCMs for measures of extremes in temperatures and daily and 5-day precipitation amounts. The measures here are trends (seasonal and annual) over the period from 1961-2000. This will also show their ability to represent current climate (61-00) not just for the means and trends, but some extreme measures and their trends. This is also past variability as well, but I suspect they are meaning further back. We will be able to use a HadCM3 simulation with historic forcing since 1500. Back to other work. CRANIUM is the one to refer to. BETWIXT led to CRANIUM. The other thing to add in somewhere is that the UKCIP08 WG came from EARWIG, so attaching that paper as well. There is nothing else yet. Jones, PD, Harpham, C and Kilsby, CK, 2008: Perturbing a weather generator using factors developed from RCM simulations. Int J. Climatol (not yet submitted). This will get submitted. It shows that the way we are perturbing the WG for UKCIP08 works. We do this by fitting the WG to the model present. We then perturb by using differences between model future (2080s) and model control. These perturbations are monthly. We then run the WG and look at the daily variability in the simulations compared to the model future at the daily timescale. It works in the sense that the RCM future run is within the range the WG simulations. Whether the RCM future is right is another matter but the WG does what the RCM does. Hope this helps. Phil At 16:56 21/05/2008, Darch, Geoff J wrote: Phil, Great. From CRU we need in particular project experience (case studies). At the moment we have CRANIUM, but other relevant ones would be good e.g. BETWIXT, SKCC, EA Drought work. Key is those related to probabilistic scenarios, weather generators, working with users and those with EA or Defra (or CCW) as the client. Any further thoughts or elaboration of your input would be useful, particularly for Task 7, where it may be best to spell out what you will do. Do you have any preference for the allocation of days between you, Clare and Tim? Also, do you want to revise your rates (for reference Jim Hall is in at £950, Chris Kilsby at £750)? They should apply until the end of the contract i.e. December 2009 and we are asked whether any discounts are available e.g. over and above a certain number of days, which could be worked in if you increased your rates. However, this is entirely up to you! We are still waiting on input from Oxford, Newcastle and Futerra - all promised imminently. It will be a busy day tomorrow! Many thanks, Geoff ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [ [2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 21 May 2008 16:16 To: McSweeney, Robert Cc: Clare Goodess; t.osborn@uea.ac.uk; Darch, Geoff J Subject: Re: Probabilistic information to inform EA decision making - Draft Bid Geoff, Rob, I can do some work tomorrow. Can you be a little more specific? It looks as though you need a lot. Have you got anything from anyone else? I assume this still has to be all off by the end of Friday. Cheers Phil At 14:15 20/05/2008, McSweeney, Robert wrote: All, Attached is an outline draft of the bid. It sets out the information we need to include, some of which is already in place. Please could you take a look at it and forward any of the outstanding information to Geoff and me, such as - CVs and pen portraits if you haven't already sent them (NB, CVs are in the Appendix and aren't in the attached document) - Any relevant (corporate) project experience, case studies, etc - Thoughts and input to the methodology section (NB, each task has been given a lead group or groups) - General comments and suggestions Please send comments and information as soon as you have the opportunity, the deadline is rapidly approaching! Many thanks, Rob <> __________________________________________________ Rob McSweeney Assistant Scientist MEng (Hons) MSc Water and Environment (Water Resources Management) ATKINS Atkins Limited, Broadoak, Southgate Park, Bakewell Road, Orton Southgate, Peterborough. PE2 6YS. Tel: +44 (0)1733 366900 Direct: +44 (0)1733 366981 Fax: +44 (0)1733 366999 Email: rob.mcsweeney@atkinsglobal.com Website: [3]www.atkinsglobal.com/climate_change [4]Click Here to read our new Solutions Magazine sharing industry knowledge and addressing your challenges. This email and any attached files are confidential and copyright protected. If you are not the addressee, any dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited. Unless otherwise expressly agreed in writing, nothing stated in this communication shall be legally binding. The ultimate parent company of the Atkins Group is WS Atkins plc. Registered in England No. 1885586. Registered Office Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW. A list of wholly owned Atkins Group companies registered in the United Kingdom can be found at: [5]http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx. P Consider the environment. Please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This message has been scanned for viruses by [6]MailControl This email and any attached files are confidential and copyright protected. If you are not the addressee, any dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited. Unless otherwise expressly agreed in writing, nothing stated in this communication shall be legally binding. The ultimate parent company of the Atkins Group is WS Atkins plc. Registered in England No. 1885586. Registered Office Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW. A list of wholly owned Atkins Group companies registered in the United Kingdom can be found at: [7]http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx. P Consider the environment. Please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- This message has been scanned for viruses by [8]MailControl This email and any attached files are confidential and copyright protected. If you are not the addressee, any dissemination of this communication is strictly prohibited. Unless otherwise expressly agreed in writing, nothing stated in this communication shall be legally binding. The ultimate parent company of the Atkins Group is WS Atkins plc. Registered in England No. 1885586. Registered Office Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road, Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW. A list of wholly owned Atkins Group companies registered in the United Kingdom can be found at: [9]http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx. P Consider the environment. Please don't print this e-mail unless you really need to. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- References 1. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk 2. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk 3. file://www.atkinsglobal.com/climate_change 4. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/aboutus/publications/watersolutions/7273742_solutions.pdf 5. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx 6. http://bluepages.wsatkins.co.uk/?6875772 7. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx 8. http://bluepages.wsatkins.co.uk/?6875772 9. http://www.atkinsglobal.com/terms_and_conditions/index.aspx