From: Phil Jones To: James Hansen Subject: Differences in our series (GISS/HadCRUT3) Date: Tue Jan 15 13:17:19 2008 Cc: gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov Jim, Gavin, Thanks for the summary about 2007. We're saying much the same things about recent temps, and probably when it comes to those idiots saying global warming is stopping - in some recent RC and CA threads. Gavin has gone to town on this with 6,7, 8 year trends etc. What I wanted to touch base on is the issue in this figure I got yesterday. This is more of the same. You both attribute the differences to your extrapolation over the Arctic (as does Stefan). I've gone along with this, but have you produced an NH series excluding the Arctic ? Do these agree better? I reviewed a paper from NCDC (Tom Smith et al) about issues with recent SSTs and the greater number of buoy type data since the late-90s (now about 70%) cf ships. The paper shows ships are very slightly warmer cf buoys (~0.1-0.2 for all SST). I don't think they have implemented an adjustment for this yet, but if done it would raise global T by about 0.1 for the recent few years. The paper should be out in J. Climate soon. The HC folks are not including SST data appearing in the Arctic for regions where their climatology (61-90) includes years which had some sea ice. I take it you and NCDC are not including Arctic SST data where the climatology isn't correct? You get big positive anomalies if you do. Some day we will have to solve both these issues. Both are difficult, especially the latter! Cheers Phil At 21:39 14/01/2008, you wrote: To be removed from Jim Hansen's e-mail list respond with REMOVE as subject Discussion of 2007 GISS global temperature analysis is posted at Solar and Southern Oscillations [1]http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080114_GISTEMP.pdf Jim Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- References 1. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080114_GISTEMP.pdf