From: Ben Santer To: Phil Jones Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: John Christy's latest ideas] Date: Thu, 10 Jan 2008 12:06:45 -0800 Reply-to: santer1@llnl.gov Dear Phil, If you get a chance, could you call me up at work (+1 925 423-3364) to talk about the "IJC publication" option? I'd really like to discuss that with you. With best regards, Ben Phil Jones wrote: > > Ben, > Almost said something about this in the main email about the diagrams! > Other emails and a couple of phone calls distracting me - have to make > sure > I'm sending the right email to the right list/person! > He's clearly biased, but he gets an audience unfortunately. There are > enough people out there who think we're wrong to cause me to worry at > times. > I'd like the world to warm up quicker, but if it did, I know that > the sensitivity > is much higher and humanity would be in a real mess! > > I'm getting people misinterpreting my comment that went along with > Chris Folland's press release about the 2008 forecast. It says we're > warming at 0.2 degC/decade and that is exactly what we should be. > The individual years don't matter. > > CA are now to send out FOIA requests for the Review Editor comments > on the AR4 Chapters. For some reason they think they exist! > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 16:52 09/01/2008, you wrote: >> Dear Phil, >> >> I can't believe John is now arguing that he's the only guy who can >> provide unbiased assessments of model performance. After all the >> mistakes he's made with MSU, and after the Douglass et al. fiasco, he >> should have acquired a little humility. But I guess "humility" isn't >> in his dictionary... >> >> With best regards, >> >> Ben >> Phil Jones wrote: >>> Ben, >>> I'll give up on trying to catch him on the road to Damascus - >>> he's beyond redemption. >>> Glad to see that someone's rejected something he's written. >>> Jim Hack's good, so I'm confident he won't be fooled. >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>> At 17:28 07/01/2008, you wrote: >>>> Dear Phil, >>>> >>>> More Christy stuff... The guy is just incredible... >>>> >>>> With best regards, >>>> >>>> Ben >>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> >>>> Benjamin D. Santer >>>> Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison >>>> Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory >>>> P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 >>>> Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. >>>> Tel: (925) 422-2486 >>>> FAX: (925) 422-7675 >>>> email: santer1@llnl.gov >>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> X-Account-Key: account1 >>>> Return-Path: >>>> Received: from mail-2.llnl.gov ([unix socket]) >>>> by mail-2.llnl.gov (Cyrus v2.2.12) with LMTPA; >>>> Mon, 07 Jan 2008 09:00:41 -0800 >>>> Received: from nspiron-2.llnl.gov (nspiron-2.llnl.gov [128.115.41.82]) >>>> by mail-2.llnl.gov (8.13.1/8.12.3/LLNL evision: 1.6 $) with >>>> ESMTP id m07H0edp031523; >>>> Mon, 7 Jan 2008 09:00:40 -0800 >>>> X-Attachments: None >>>> X-IronPort-AV: E=McAfee;i="5100,188,5200"; a="5944377" >>>> X-IronPort-AV: E=Sophos;i="4.24,254,1196668800"; >>>> d="scan'208";a="5944377" >>>> Received: from dione.llnl.gov (HELO [128.115.57.29]) ([128.115.57.29]) >>>> by nspiron-2.llnl.gov with ESMTP; 07 Jan 2008 09:00:40 -0800 >>>> Message-ID: <47825AB8.5000608@llnl.gov> >>>> Date: Mon, 07 Jan 2008 09:00:40 -0800 >>>> From: Ben Santer >>>> Reply-To: santer1@llnl.gov >>>> Organization: LLNL >>>> User-Agent: Thunderbird 1.5.0.12 (X11/20070529) >>>> MIME-Version: 1.0 >>>> To: "Hack, James J." >>>> Subject: Re: John Christy's latest ideas >>>> References: >>>> <537C6C0940C6C143AA46A88946B854170B9FAF74@ORNLEXCHANGE.ornl.gov> >>>> In-Reply-To: >>>> <537C6C0940C6C143AA46A88946B854170B9FAF74@ORNLEXCHANGE.ornl.gov> >>>> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed >>>> Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit >>>> >>>> Dear Jim, >>>> >>>> I'm well aware of this paper, and am currently preparing a reply >>>> (together with many others who were involved in the first CCSP >>>> report). To put it bluntly, the Douglass paper is a piece of >>>> worthless garbage. It has serious statistical flaws. Christy should >>>> be ashamed that he's a co-author on this. His letter to Dr. Strayer >>>> is deplorable and offensive. For over a decade, Christy has >>>> portrayed himself as the only guy who is smart enough to develop >>>> climate-quality data records from MSU. Recently, he's also portrayed >>>> himself as the only guy who's smart enough to develop >>>> climate-quality data records from radiosonde data. And now he's the >>>> only scientist who is capable of performing "hard-nosed", >>>> independent assessments of climate model performance. >>>> >>>> John Christy has made a scientific career out of being wrong. He's >>>> not even a third-rate scientist. I'd be happy to discuss Christy's >>>> "unique ways of validating climate models" with you. >>>> >>>> With best regards, >>>> >>>> Ben >>>> Hack, James J. wrote: >>>>> Dear Ben, >>>>> >>>>> Happy New Year. Hope all is well. I was wondering if you're >>>>> familiar with the attached paper? I thought that you had recently >>>>> published something that concludes something quite different. Is >>>>> that right? If yes, could you forward me a copy? And, any >>>>> comments are also welcome. >>>>> He's coming to ORNL next week to under the premise that he has some >>>>> unique ways to validate climate models (this time with regard to >>>>> the lower thermodynamic structure). I'd be happy to chat with you >>>>> about this as well if you would like. I'm appending what I know to >>>>> the bottom of this note. >>>>> >>>>> Best regards ... >>>>> >>>>> Jim >>>>> >>>>> James J. Hack Director, National Center for Computational Sciences >>>>> Oak Ridge National Laboratory >>>>> One Bethel Valley Road >>>>> P.O. Box 2008, MS-6008 >>>>> Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6008 >>>>> >>>>> email: jhack@ornl.gov >>>>> voice: 865-574-6334 >>>>> fax: 865-241-9578 >>>>> cell: 865-206-9001 >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> >> -----Original Message----- >>>>>> >> From: John Christy [_mailto:john.christy@nsstc.uah.edu_] >>>>>> >> Sent: Tuesday, October 23, 2007 9:16 AM >>>>>> >> To: Strayer, Michael >>>>>> >> Cc: Salmon, Jeffrey >>>>>> >> Subject: Climate Model Evaluation >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> Dr. Strayer: >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> Jeff Salmon is aware of a project we at UAHuntsville believe is >>>>>> >> vital and that you may provide a way to see it accomplished. >>>>>> As you >>>>>> >> know, our nation's energy and climate change policies are being >>>>>> >> driven by output from global climate models. However, there has >>>>>> >> never been a true "red team" assessment of these model >>>>>> projections >>>>>> >> in the way other government programs are subjected to hard-nosed, >>>>>> >> independent evaluations. To date, most of the "evaluation" of >>>>>> these >>>>>> >> models has been left in the hands of the climate modelers >>>>>> >> themselves. This has the potential of biasing the entire process. >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> It is often a climate modeler's claim (and promoted in IPCC >>>>>> >> documents - see attached) that the models must be correct because >>>>>> >> the global surface >>>>>> >> temperature variations since 1850 are reproduced (somewhat) by >>>>>> the >>>>>> >> models when run in hindcast mode. However, this is not a >>>>>> scientific >>>>>> >> experiment for the simple reason that every climate modeler >>>>>> saw the >>>>>> >> answer ahead of time. It is terribly easy to get the right answer >>>>>> >> for the wrong reason, especially if you already know the answer. >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> A legitimate experiment is to test the models' output against >>>>>> >> variables to which modelers did not have access ... a true blind >>>>>> >> test of the models. >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> I have proposed and have had rejected a model evaluation >>>>>> project to >>>>>> >> DOE based on the utilization of global datasets we build here at >>>>>> >> UAH. We have published many of these datasets (most are >>>>>> >> satellite-based) which document the complexity of the climate >>>>>> >> system and which we think models should replicate in some way, >>>>>> and >>>>>> >> to aid in model development where shortcomings are found. >>>>>> These are >>>>>> >> datasets of quantities that modelers in general were not aware of >>>>>> >> when doing model testing. We have performed >>>>>> >> a few of these tests and have found models reveal serious >>>>>> >> shortcomings in some of the most fundamental aspects of energy >>>>>> >> distribution. We believe a rigorous test of climate models is in >>>>>> >> order as the congress starts considering energy reduction >>>>>> >> strategies which can have significant consequences on our >>>>>> economy. >>>>>> >> Below is an abstract of a retooled proposal I am working on. >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> If you see a possible avenue for research along these lines, >>>>>> please >>>>>> >> let me know. Too, we have been considering some type of >>>>>> partnership >>>>>> >> with Oakridge since the facility is nearby, and this may be a way >>>>>> >> to do that. >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> John C. >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> Understanding the vertical energy distribution of the Earth's >>>>> atmosphere >>>>>> >> and its expression in global climate model simulations >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> John R. Christy, P.I., University of Alabama in Huntsville >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> Abstract >>>>>> >> >>>>>> >> Sets of independent observations indicate, unexpectedly, that the >>>>>> >> warming of the tropical atmosphere since 1978 is proceeding at a >>>>>> >> rate much less than that anticipated from climate model >>>>>> simulations. >>>>>> >> Specifically, while the surface has warmed, the lower troposphere >>>>>> >> has experienced less warming. In contrast, all climate models we >>>>>> >> and others have examined indicate the lower tropical atmosphere >>>>>> >> should be warming at a rate 1.2 to 1.5 times greater than the >>>>>> >> surface when forced with increasing greenhouse gases within the >>>>>> >> context of other observed forcings (the so-called "negative lapse >>>>>> >> rate feedback".) We propose to diagnose this curious phenomenon >>>>>> >> with several satellite-based datasets to document its relation to >>>>>> >> other climate variables. We shall do the same for climate model >>>>>> >> output of the same simulated variables. This will >>>>>> >> enable us to propose an integrated conceptual framework of the >>>>>> >> phenomenon for further testing. Tied in with this research are >>>>> potential >>>>>> >> answers to fundamental questions such as the following: (1) In >>>>>> >> response to increasing surface temperatures, is the lower >>>>>> >> atmosphere reconfiguring the way heat energy is transported which >>>>>> >> allows for an increasing amount of heat to more freely escape to >>>>>> >> space? (2) Could there be a natural thermostatic effect in the >>>>>> >> climate system which acts in a different way than parameterized >>>>>> >> convective-adjustment schemes dependent upon current >>>>>> assumptions of >>>>>> >> heat deposition and retention? (3) >>>>>> >> If observed atmospheric heat retention is considerably less than >>>>>> >> model projections, what impact will lower retention rates have on >>>>>> >> anticipated increases in surface temperatures in the 21st >>>>>> century? >>>>>> >> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> >>>> Benjamin D. Santer >>>> Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison >>>> Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory >>>> P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 >>>> Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. >>>> Tel: (925) 422-2486 >>>> FAX: (925) 422-7675 >>>> email: santer1@llnl.gov >>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> >>> Prof. Phil Jones >>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>> NR4 7TJ >>> UK >>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >> >> >> -- >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> >> Benjamin D. Santer >> Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison >> Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory >> P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 >> Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. >> Tel: (925) 422-2486 >> FAX: (925) 422-7675 >> email: santer1@llnl.gov >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Benjamin D. Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. Tel: (925) 422-2486 FAX: (925) 422-7675 email: santer1@llnl.gov ----------------------------------------------------------------------------