From: Phil Jones To: Jorge Sánchez Sesma Subject: Re: Global Temperature Date: Mon Mar 15 16:01:14 2004 Dear Jorge, Happy for you to use me in an additional attempt tp get some Mexican support to come to CRU next year. What exactly do you need? Send me an example of what you want? Life is very busy here at the moment as I'll be away for several meetings over the next 6 weeks and I must prepare some material for most of them. GKSS is just one model and it is a model, so there is no need for it to be correct. I am also aware that Ed Cook is revising the ECS curve in a paper he's submitting to Quaternary Science Reviews. Remember that if ECS (and GKSS) are correct then the climate is more sensitive to external forcing (the factors that cause past changes/variability). If the climate is more sensitive then the likely changes in the future will be greater. The curves that we've produced here (and also Mike Mann's) suggest a climate sensitivity of about 2.5 deg C for a CO2 doubling. Getting volcanic forcing right in the past (along with solar) are crucial in any study. Cheers Phil At 12:22 12/03/2004 -0600, you wrote: Dear Dr. Jones: I am very happy because I went to a Workshop in Kona Hawaii (with support of NASA-CRCES after to gain a contest with a review paper about global temperature reconstructions, it was a different version of the paper that you have read). There I met with Dr. Michael Mann. Mann was very kind with me, however when he did know my work he changed his attitude. I met there also Dr. Hans von Starch who presented a global temperature reconstructions with a AOCGCM with natural and anthropogenic forcings. His results agree more or less with ECS, and my results. i am in contact with the GKSS group in order to compare and share information. However, the key point of my studies, as you have pointed out, is to justify that the background Ice Acidity (without volcanic activity) from polar caps could be considered as a proxy. I have contacted Dr. Hammer and Dr. Crowley to have information and advice. In order continue this kind of studies I would like to propose you again (as we have tried last year) to ask support the the AMC (Mexican Academy of Sciences) to support a visit to CRU-UEA next year to continue my work, with your help and advice, about global temperature for the Holocene. I will need only an official invitation for my visit. It would be in March 2005 for 3 or 4 weeks. Also, I am asking support to travel to Japan this year (this fall), however I would like to stop in England a week, in order to visit CRU-UEA and to continue our collaboration. I would like to know your oppinion, cheers, Jorge Jorge Sánchez-Sesma Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua Subcoordinación de Hidrometeorología Paseo Cuauhnahuac No. 8532, Col. Progreso Jiutepec, Morelos 62550, México telefono: 52+(777)329-3600 x 879 fax 52+(777)3293683 email: jsanchez@tlaloc.imta.mx pagina: [1]http://nimbus.imta.mx Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- References 1. http://nimbus.imta.mx/