2005 Emails ______________________________________________________ 4662. 2005-01-02 17:52:02 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Sun, 2 Jan 2005 17:52:02 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith - Thanks - hope your Christmas break is/was good. I'm in the midst of the holiday too, and not likely able to spend too much time on IPCC until just after the new year - thereafter, I'll be 100% focused on it. However, given the importance of the section you're working on, I'll try to give some helpful feedback... see BOLD comments below. Many thanks for keeping things going - it sounds like you're doing an excellent job. Will you be around and able to help with the chapter during the first two weeks of Jan? That would be great! Thanks - see BELOW - Peck >Peck and Eystein >I have to break off now for the christmas period >This is unavoidable. I am sending what I have now >even though I am not at all happy with it. >It is obviously only part way there. Getting the data >to produce Figures and work out how to design them >is going to be time very consuming >and I will rely entirely on Tim here to do them MY GUESS IS THAT YOUR FIGURES WILL BE AMONG THE MOST IMPORTANT OF THE WHOLE AR4, SO THANKS FOR WORKING SO HARD ON THEM. SAY THANKS TO TIM TOO! >- and the regional input >stuff if wanted will need input from a number of people >that I have not been able to contact (see later) > The borehole discussion (contributed to by Henry Pollack) will need >batting around and Henry (and Mike , who contributed >a section on regional forced changes) will need to be kept >on board. YES, VERY DELICATE I SUPPOSE. THE TRICK MIGHT BE TO LET THEM DISAGREE WHERE THEY DO, BUT TO HIGHLIGHT WHERE THEY DO AGREE - EG THAT THE LATE 20TH CENTURY IS WARMEST OF X YEARS. HAVE TO BALANCE OUT ED'S LATEST TOO. BUT, YOU'RE MORE UP ON THIS THAN ANYONE, SO JUST LET ME KNOW IF I CAN HELP - IF THINGS GET HAIRY WITH MIKE AND HENRY, I CAN HELP - HAVE GOOD RELATIONSHIPS W/ BOTH. >There will be loads to say on the simulated >temperature histories and Tim will help here also > - but much is unpublished or >even unanalysed (hence Simon and Eduardo will need >to contribute eventually). LOOK FORWARD TO THIS - IT'S IMPORTANT. ACCORDING TO DAVID RIND, JUDITH LEAN FEELS STRONGLY THAT THE SOLAR RECONS OF THE PAST CENTURIES MAY BE COMPLETE BUNK. I'M TRYING TO GET THE INPUT SHE PROVIDED AS LA TO THE RADIATION CHAPTER - SHE'S HAVING SOME SERIOUS PERSONAL DISTRACTIONS NOW, BUT HOPE TO HAVE MORE TO SHARE WITH YOU AND OTHERS SOON. I WOULD NOT WAIT BEFORE ENGAGING ALL THAT YOU THINK ARE NEEDED TO DO A GOOD JOB. WHAT ABOUT CASPAR AMMAN TOO? HE HAS SOME GOOD LONG RUNS AND INSIGHTS, BUT ISN'T TOO GOOD ABOUT PUBLISHING. >The glacier bit at the end is what >Olga sent and I have not had time to work through it. I'LL READ - SHOULD WE ASK FOR SOMEONE ELSE TO LOOK AT IT - LIKE LONNIE. I CAN'T SAY UNTIL I READ (AND I'M VERY SORRY I DON'T HAVE READING TIME NOW), BUT WE WANT ALL THE IMPORTANT (SENSATIVE) PARTS OF OUR CHAPTER TO BE AS STRONG AS POSSIBLE. HARD TO IMAGINE NOT HAVING LONNIE'S INPUT - BUT I'LL RESERVE JUDGEMENT UNTIL I READ. ON THE OTHER HAND, BETTER FOR YOU TO SEEK OUT HELP AND SECOND OPINIONS AS SOON AS YOU CAN GIVEN THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME LEFT (MID JAN) BEFORE WE HAVE TO HAND THINGS IN. >You two need to give some direction as to how >much you wish to have explicitly looking at the mass of >NAO?AO reconstructions , ditto ENSO or PDO and all the >simulations of these - but at this stage not sure where in overall >plan all this going. I THINK THESE "MODES" OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THEIR POSSIBLE INFLUENCES (E.G., ENSO CHANGES ON N. AMERICAN DROUGHT) NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SURE. IF THE DATA ARE INCONCLUSIVE, WE SHOULD SAY SO, BUT IF THE DATA SAY THAT THE ENSO SYSTEM HAS CHANGED SYSTEMATICALLY, THEN WE NEED TO ACCESS THAT TOO. TALKING TO JULIE, SHE AGREES THAT THE EVIDENCE FOR CHANGE IN BOTH THE TROPICAL PACIFIC, THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN, AND RESULTING DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE ALL SIGNIFICANT OR AT LEAST WORTHY OF CAREFUL ASSESSMENT. PERHAPS THE BEST GAME PLAN WOULD BE TO QUICKLY ASSESS AND OUTLINE THE MAIN POINTS FOR EACH: - ENSO AND TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN (JULIE AND PECK) - TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN (JULIE AND PECK) ----- (BOTTOM LINE ON BOTH THE ABOVE IS THAT UNPRECIDENTED CHANGES APPEAR TO BE TAKING PLACE, AND THAT THESE CHANGES DO SEEM TO MAKE SENSE IN THE CONTEXT OF GW. MOREOVER, THEY DO SEEM TO BE INFLUENCING DROUGHT OVER N. AMERICA AND N. AFRICA - CAN'T SAY WITH GREAT CONFIDENCE THAT THE DROUGHTS ARE CAUSED, OR EXTENDED, OR DEEPENED BY GW, BUT IT IS SUGGESTIVE. JULIE AND I CAN SAY MORE.) - TROPICAL ATLANTIC (PECK AND JULIE - EYSTEIN - DO YOU KNOW MUCH ON THIS TOPIC?) - RECENT CHANGE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANYTHING OUT OF NORMAL RANGE OF VARIABILITY). - NORTH ATLANTIC/NAO/AO (KEITH, ED, EYSTEIN??) WHAT'S THE STORY??? - PDO - WHO? MALCOLM? ED? (KEITH CAN YOU LEAD) - I SUSPECT THAT THE STORY IS INCONCLUSIVE??? WHAT DO YOU THINK??? - ASIAN MONSOON (PECK AND RAMESH) - THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE MONSOON IS STREGTHENING (WIND STRESS OVER ARABIAN SEA) AND THAT THE DRIER MARGINS OF THE S. ASIAN MONSOON ARE GETTING WETTER, WHEREAS OTHER AREAS OF S. (INDIAN) MONSOON PPT ARE NOT CHANGING. DATA ON E. ASIAN MONSOON APPEAR TO BE LESS CLEAR. - WEST AFRICAN MONSOON (PECK - ANYONE ELSE KNOW ANYTHING? - I HAVE UNPUBLISHED DATA TO BE PUBLISHED - I PRAY - BEFORE END OF SUMMER - DOES APPEAR THAT THE MONSOON IS STRENGTHENING IN CONCERT, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, WITH THE S. ASIAN MONSOON - HAVE TO SEE HOW PEER-REVIEW OF OUR NEW WEST AFRICAN RECORD DOES) - RELATION OF THE ABOVE TO DROUGHT (NORTH AMERICAN AND AFRICAN - JULIE AND PECK - SEE ABOVE - THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT "THE PERFECT OCEAN FOR DROUGHT" IS A LATE 20TH CENTURY FEATURE DRIVEN BY GHGS) > Do we really want a discussion on MWP >and LIA per se ? I THINK WE HAVE TO PROVIDE THE DEFINITIVE WORD ON THESE - ESPECIALLY THE MWP AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT MWP WARMTH IS AN ANALOG OR NOT FOR LATE 20TH CENTURY WARMTH, AND THUS EVIDENCE THAT NATURAL PROCESSES CAN EXPLAIN THE RECENT WARMTH (EVEN IF WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THOSE PROCESSES WERE/ARE). HOW DOES THE RECENT WARMTH COMPARE TO MWP - BOTH IN TIME AND SPACE (WAS IT GLOBALLY SYNCHRONOUS WARMTH??). WHAT ABOUT FORCING. WE NEED TO HIT THIS ONE HEAD ON. >The regional descriptions , including Southern Hemisphere >could be infinite length and I suppose we should only discuss longest or >pre assimilated information - but will need specific input here from >colleagues >if we are to do these regional (including precipitation ) sections . >I know Julie and Ed , and presumably Eystein , will be the best people to ask. >I am attaching the current text and placeholder ideas for Figures . WE SHOULD FOCUS ON THE MOST COMPELLING, BUT BEWARE BEING CHARGED WITH BIASES SUCH AS N HEM BIAS, ETC. WOULD BE GREAT TO WORK IN REGIONS TO MWP VS RECENT DISCUSSION, FOR EXAMPLE. ALSO, SEE MY LIST ABOVE - ARE THERE OTHER REGIONS THAT WE SHOULD CONSIDER - S. HEMISPHERE? RICARDO CAN BE A BIG HELP HERE, ALSO ED NO DOUBT. >Not feasible to work more on these until know wider priorities re space. YOUR SECTION IS THE MOST, OR AT LEAST ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT OF THE CHAPTER. I THINK WE CAN DEVOTE MORE SPACE IF NEEDED, AND ALSO CAN BOIL THINGS DOWN ONCE WE HAVE IT ALL IN PERSPECTIVE. >Have had bad experience with ENDNOTE - and Tom Melvin here will forward >the biblio file later. >I wanted to do more , but that is all I can manage til after Xmas > >Here is wishing you (and your loved ones) all the best >Keith READING YOUR PROSE IS A TOP PRIOIRTY, AFTER SENDING THIS AND A COUPLE OTHER "FEEDBACK" EMAILS. THANKS SO MUCH FOR WORKING SO HARD ON THIS, AND FOR BEING PROACTIVE IN BRINGING IN THE OTHER EXPERTS THAT ARE NEEDED. BEST, PECK >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccFAR-6-3-2-1Fig1.pdf (PDF >/CARO) (000C14D6) >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccFAR-6-3-2-1Fig3.pdf (PDF >/CARO) (000C14D8) >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:IPCCFAR_6-3-2-1_ 22-12-04 .doc >(WDBN/MSWD) (000C14D9) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 4315. 2005-01-03 14:26:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 3 Jan 2005 14:26:38 -0500 from: Journal of Climate subject: Review Request: J. Climate LETTER to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Dear Dr. Osborn, Paul Kushner, an Editor of Journal of Climate, has suggested you as a possible reviewer for a submitted LETTER entitled "Robustness of spatial climate reconstructions" (JCL-5520) by Eugene R. Wahl and Caspar M. Ammann. The Letters section provides rapid and high-profile publication of brief communications on topics of great interest to the climate research community. Reviewers are asked to rate letters on the basis of their importance, timeliness, and level of interest to the climate research community, and also to provide additional comments and suggestions regarding the technical merit, quality of the writing and figures, and all the usual criteria associated with the peer review process. If you can do this review, we ask that you complete your review this manuscript within ONE WEEK and I will send you a link to allow you to download the manuscript. If you are unable to complete the review within one week, please do not accept the review. In this case, we would greatly appreciate it if you could suggest other possible reviewers and provide their email addresses. Thank you. Sincerely, Catherine Cassidy Editorial Assistant, Journal of Climate Paul Kushner, Editor 1737. 2005-01-04 11:22:31 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jan 4 11:22:31 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: Fw: Rutherford et al. [2004] to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk FYI. Just look at the attachment. Don't refer to it or send it on to anybody yet. I guess you could refer to it in the IPCC Chapter - you will have to some day ! Cheers Phil X-Sender: mem6u@multiproxy.evsc.virginia.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.1.1 Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 09:22:02 -0500 To: Phil Jones From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: Re: Fw: Rutherford et al. [2004] X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-UEA-MailScanner-SpamScore: s Phil, I would immediately delete anything you receive from this fraud. You've probably seen now the paper by Wahl and Ammann which independently exposes McIntyre and McKitrick for what it is--pure crap. Of course, we've already done this on "RealClimate", but Wahl and Ammann is peer-reviewed and independent of us. I've attached it in case you haven't seen (please don't pass it along to others yet). It should be in press shortly. Meanwhile, I would NOT RESPOND to this guy. As you know, only bad things can come of that. The last thing this guy cares about is honest debate--he is funded by the same people as Singer, Michaels, etc... Other than this distraction, I hope you're enjoying the holidays too... talk to you soon, mike At 09:02 AM 12/30/2004, you wrote: Mike, FYI. Just in for an hour or so today as still off until Jan 4. Not replied to this - too much else with IPCC etc. Not read this in detail - just printed it off. Have a good New Year's Eve. Cheers Phil From: "Steve McIntyre" To: "Phil Jones" Subject: Fw: Rutherford et al. [2004] Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 10:08:18 -0500 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2800.1158 X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Dear Phil, I have noticed the following statements in Rutherford et al [2004], in which you are a co-author. As compared with some of your co-authors, I get the impression that, while you feel very strongly about your views, you are also concerned with getting to the bottom of matters and are less concerned with scoring meaningless debating points. In this spirit, I draw your attention to some incorrect statements in Rutherford et al. [2004] concerning our material. There is really a quite serious problem with the PC methods in MBH98 and the comments made in Rutherford et al [2004] are really quite misleading. For the reasons set out below, I request that these comments be removed from the manuscript. Regards, Steve McIntyre ----- Original Message ----- From: [1]Steve McIntyre To: [2]David Randall Cc: [3]Scott Rutherford ; [4]Paul Kushner ; [5]Cindy Carrick ; [6]Ross McKitrick Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 2004 1:48 PM Subject: Rutherford et al. [2004] Dear Dr. Randall, Recently, at the website [7]www.realclimate.org, Michael Mann publicized a submission by Rutherford et al. to Journal of Climate, entitled Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain. This paper contains some untrue statements and mischaracterizations regarding criticisms we (McIntyre and McKitrick) made of Mann et al. (1998) [MBH98] in a 2003 paper and subsequent exchanges under the auspices of Nature. We are writing to request that these untrue statements be removed from the paper before any further processing of the document by Journal of Climate takes place. First, Rutherford et al. states that McIntyre and McKitrick [2003] used an incorrect version of the Mann et al. (1998) proxy indicator dataset. The history of this matter is summarized below (all relevant emails and other documentation are available at [8]http://www.climate2003.com/file.issues.htm . In April 2003, we requested from Mann the FTP location of the dataset used in MBH98. Mann advised me that he was unable to recall the location of this dataset and referred the request to Rutherford. Rutherford eventually directed us to a file (pcproxy.txt) located at a URL at Manns FTP site. In using this data file, we noticed numerous problems with it, not least with the principal component series. We sought specific confirmation from Mann that this dataset was the one used in MBH98; Mann said that he was too busy to respond to this or any other inquiry. Because of the many problems in this data set, we undertook a complete new re-collation of the data, using the list of data sources in the SI to MBH98 and using original archived versions wherever possible. After publication of McIntyre and McKitrick [2003], Mann said that dataset at his FTP site to which we had been referred was an incorrect version of the data and that this version had been prepared especially for me; through a blog, he provided a new URL which he now claimed to contain the correct data set. The file creation date of the incorrect version was in 2002, long prior to my first request for data, clearly disproving his assertion that it was prepared in response to my request. Mann and/or Rutherford then deleted this incorrect version with its date evidence from his FTP site. It is false and misleading for Rutherford et al. to now allege that we used the wrong dataset. We used the dataset they directed us to at their FTP site. More importantly, for our analysis, to avoid the problems with the principal component series, we re-collated the tree ring data identified in MBH98 from ITRDB archives, calculated fresh principal component series; in addition, we re-collated other proxy data from archived versions wherever possible. Thus, our own calculations were not affected by the errors in the supplied file as we did NOT use the incorrect version in our calculations. To suggest otherwise, as is done in Rutherford et al [2004], is highly misleading. To date, no source code or other evidence has been provided to fully demonstrate that the incorrect version (now deleted) did not infect some of Manns and Rutherfords other work. In this respect, we note that the now deleted file pcproxy.txt occurs in a legend in a graphic at Rutherfords website, indicating possible use elsewhere by Rutherford of the incorrect version. Accordingly, we request that the above claim be removed from the manuscript. Secondly, Rutherford et al. [2004] argues that the difference between MBH98 results and MM03 results occurs because of our misunderstanding of a stepwise procedure in MBH98 for the calculation of principal component series for tree ring networks. Again, this claim is misleading on its face. While our 2003 paper did not implement the (then undisclosed) stepwise procedure, as soon as this matter was raised in subsequent correspondence in November 2003, we implemented it and we continued to observe the discrepancies in principal component series and final results. The current manuscript ignores a refereed exchange at Nature in which we specifically clarified (in response to a reviewers question) that we had obtained such results while using the exact stepwise procedure described in MBH98. Mann is aware of this refereed exchange. The reason for the difference between our results and MBH98 results is primarily due to the fact that the tree ring principal component series in MBH98 cannot be replicated using a conventional principal components method. The MBH98 principal component series can only be replicated by standardizing on a short segment a procedure nowhere mentioned in MBH98 and only recently acknowledged in the SI to the Corrigendum of Mann et al. [Nature 2004] in response to our concerns on the subject expressed to Nature. In effect, MBH98 did not use a conventional centered PC calculation, but used an uncentered PC calculation on de-centered data. The impact of this method is the subject of ongoing controversy, which is well-known to the authors, but the existence of the method in MBH98 is no longer in doubt. In discussions of PC calculations in 2004 exchanged with the authors through Nature, we implemented the stepwise procedures of MBH98 referred to in the present manuscript and demonstrated that important differences remain even with stepwise procedures, as long as the uncentered and decentered methods of MBH98 are used. The differences in PC series resulting from using centered and uncentered series has been fully agreed to by all parties in the Nature exchange, although the parties continue to disagree on the ultimate effect on final NH temperature calculations. Accordingly, the discussion in Rutherford et al. [2004] is very incomplete and misleading in this respect. While we recognize that Mann et al. have argued that they can salvage MBH98-type results using alternative methodologies (e.g. increasing the number of PC series used in the 1400-1450 period), these salvage efforts are themselves a matter of controversy and do not validate the claims being put forward in the Rutherford et al. paper. Accordingly we ask that this claim also be deleted from the manuscript. Regards, Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [9]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4061. 2005-01-04 11:57:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 11:57:12 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Rutherford et al. [2004] to: Phil Jones ,k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Phil & Keith - I guess we just wait and see how things pan out over the Rutherford et al paper, though I was concerned that Mike was using this paper as a vehicle for publishing points first against Esper et al. and at a later stage also against McIntyre and McItrick - points that would be made better elsewhere. I'm uncomfortable about Rutherford et al. being made the main "rebuttal" of M&M - and it's disappointing that Mike never told me he'd withdrawn his formal response from Climatic Change (I've removed our web comment now, since no formal response seems to be on the horizon). The Wahl and Ammam paper should help here I guess. - Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 1444. 2005-01-04 15:57:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jan 4 15:57:23 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: odds of keep getting record warm years to: "Stott, Peter" Peter, The only person who's tried to do something like this is Tom Karl - some years ago. I recall Tom Wigley not thinking much of it. Tom had a paper in GRL in 2000. Wigley, T.M.L., 2000: ENSO, volcanoes and record-breaking temperatures. Geophys. Res. Letts. 27, 4101-4104. This was more to do with record breaking months though - in sequence. This is what Tom Karl's was about too. Tom W's problem was El Nino effects on the monthly timescale. I don't think it is as quite as straightforward as you say, but that is where I'd start. I think you also need to assume a trend as well as an AR process. Maybe they are the same. It would be worth sorting out as the statistic won't be that good next year. The year that messes it up is 1996. 1990 is in instead. To get rid of 1990 requires other years to drop out as it is about 6th or 7th warmest, and 1996 will still be in next 10 at end of 2005. So it won't be so good in Dec 2005 ! Cheers Phil At 14:11 04/01/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, Have you ever calculated the odds of keep getting years in the warmest 10 on record, eg 9 of the 10 warmest on record being in the last 10 ? Henry Derwent is asking about this - I'm aware of what Tom Karl has done but not sure what else - presumably it's a relatively easy job to fit an AR model to the data and then calculate probabilities. Peter -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dr. Peter Stott Climate Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613 Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobile: 07753880683 E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk NOTE WILL ALSO BE AT EXETER PART OF EACH WEEK ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3885. 2005-01-04 21:50:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 4 Jan 2005 21:50:35 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] URGENT - Deadline approaching to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Dear friends - Happy New Year! Eystein and I hope those taking a holiday break had a good one, and that in any case that you are all ready to work hard over the next 10 days until the ZOD deadline. *** EVERYONE - PLEASE READ AND RESPOND IMMEDIATELY TO THIS EMAIL. By now, you all have the compilation of material sent by Eystein on December 30. The next step is for each section leader to finalize the integration and editing of their section. The attached excel spreadsheet lists who is the leader and who else has expressed interest in contributing (and in many cases has already contributed). HERE IS WHAT WE ASK YOU TO DO: ***1) MOST URGENT - send Eystein and me an email IMMEDIATELY indicating 1a) when you will get our final draft section(s) (including display items and references - see requirements below) to us - as Eystein indicated already, it is due before Jan 7, but we would really appreciate receipt of sections before then! 1b) what, if any help or input you need. In most cases, Eystein and I will provide some input, and Eystein has already done that in the draft he circulated Dec 30. I am in the process of doing this, section by section, so if you need input right away, I'll make that my priority. Some already have the feedback. 1c) an updated list of figures that you propose to include in your section - please label them section number Fig X - for example "Section 6.4.2 Fig 1" etc. 1d) an updated list of CA's (contributing authors) and their affiliation (something quick is enough for now) 1e) confirmation that you will be watching your email closely and are available to work on your IPCC responsibilities over the next 10 days. Please let us know the extent to which you can help review material. ***2) If you need anything from another LA or CA, please make the contact/request/etc yourself! Please cc my/Eystein so we know what is going on. ***Each section leader is responsible for their section getting done*** This includes soliciting and integrating all the input that is needed. It also includes getting your "section second" (see attached table) to review edit your section. ***3) By Jan 7, hopefully earlier, you should send your draft section text, display items and references - please send the text and display items first, and note that the text must include captions. Please note that all sections must be highly focused and include careful reference to the literature. See the TAR if you need examples to follow. ***4) note that your sections MUST be no longer than the assigned page limit (remember that two typed pages equal one final page, so if your assigned section is 4 pages, you have 8 single-spaced pages to work with). Almost every section is presently too long, so you have to only include that material that is relevant to making policy regarding climate change - all else must be deleted. Any questions, ask Peck and Eystein. Note also that we will make suggestions about what to cut, or leave for another section or chapter. Please keep an outline of material cut that might find a happy home in the appendix - we'll worry about the appendix after the ZOD deadline next week. We hope to hear from you ALL in the next couple days. Thanks for making your IPCC responsibility your top responsibility over the next 10 days. This is cruch time, as they say in the movies, and we all have to work hard together to make sure we have a good ZOD. Cheers, Peck and Eystein -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\ZODChap6Responsibilities.xls" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1159. 2005-01-04 21:52:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov date: Tue, 4 Jan 2005 21:52:47 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Hi Keith - Happy new year. Hopefully, you had a good holiday. I've had a chance to read your section and hopefully you've had a chance to read what I sent just before the holidays. The purpose of this email is to help get a focus on the finish line (just a few days away) and to get a dialog going that will hopefully help you finish section 6.3.2.1. If you'd like to talk on the phone, just let me know. Please see my email from right before xmas holidays for original comments. Plus, here are the new ones from both me and David Rind: 0) as leader of this KEY section, we need you to take the lead integrating everything you think should be integrated, editing and boiling it down to just ca 4 pages of final text (e.g., 8 pages of typed text plus figs). This means cutting some material (e.g., forcings and simulations) and perhaps moving glacier record (MUCH boiled down) to a box. See below. 00) note that we can also perhaps move some of the details to the appendix (although we won't write this until after the current ZOD crunch, save an outline of what you might want in there). 1) I like your figure ideas, with the comments: 1a) I don't think you need figure 1d - the SH recons are sketchy since not much data, and it might be better to just discuss in a sentence or three. Any space saved is good too. Not sure about your proposed 1e - have to see it, I guess. 1b) Figure 2 looks interesting. I'm trying to get the latest Arctic recon from Konrad Hughen - it is quite robust and a significant multi-proxy update. Should be published in time, though not sure thing since he's still hot on including his (our) AO recon which is more sketchy 1c) I think we can save space and improve organization if we DO NOT include Fig 3. However, this is open for debate - see David's comments below. 2) I agree with David's comments in general - so see them below. The prickly issue is where to put the forcings and simulated changes. I am close to having the prose from the radiation chapter, including the latest Lean and Co's view on solar - this will make many of the existing simulations involving inferred past solar forcing suspect (I will send in a day or so I hope). This means that we might be best saving space and downplaying this work some. I'm not sure, but wanted to debate it with you. Also, Chap 9 will have simulations in spades, so we can save space by letting them do it. Also, as David points out, we can focus on it elsewhere in our chapter more concisely - leaving you to focus on the VERY important obs record of temp and other changes. Can you tell, I'm still not 100% sure? I'll send another email to you and others about this in a bit. 3) Your section is too long and needs to be condensed. Thus, you need to think through what's most important and what's less so. For example, we need to figure out how to condense the glacier record of change. David thinks it should be a separate section that cuts across time scales (i.e., Holocene and last 2000 years). Perhaps we should try to make it into a box - 3 to 5 short paragraphs and a figure or two. Either way we have to really wack it. What do you think - you and I should be on the same page with Eystein before discussing w/ Olga perhaps. Or you can discuss with her - you're the lead on this section. 4) you're doing an impressive job! Lots to keep track of. Next, here is what David has offered. Take it all with a grain of salt, but I have read it and he has many good points. On the structural or any other points, I'm happy to discuss on the phone, or you can just debate with him and me on email. ******* From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** 6.3 Understanding Past Climate System Change (forcing and response) 6.3.1 Introduction (0.5 pages) 6.3.2 The Current Interglacial 6.3.2.1 Last 2000 years (4 pages) Figure 1 should be of the last 2000 years, with appropriate caveats, not just since 1860 (which will undoubtedly be in other chapters). pp. 8-18: The biggest problem with what appears here is in the handling of the greater variability found in some reconstructions, and the whole discussion of the 'hockey stick'. The tone is defensive, and worse, it both minimizes and avoids the problems. We should clearly say (e.g., page 12 middle paragraph) that there are substantial uncertainties that remain concerning the degree of variability - warming prior to 12K BP, and cooling during the LIA, due primarily to the use of paleo-indicators of uncertain applicability, and the lack of global (especially tropical) data. Attempting to avoid such statements will just cause more problems. In addition, some of the comments are probably wrong - the warm-season bias (p.12) should if anything produce less variability, since warm seasons (at least in GCMs) feature smaller climate changes than cold seasons. The discussion of uncertainties in tree ring reconstructions should be direct, not referred to other references - it's important for this document. How the long-term growth is factored in/out should be mentioned as a prime problem. The lack of tropical data - a few corals prior to 1700 - has got to be discussed. The primary criticism of McIntyre and McKitrick, which has gotten a lot of play on the Internet, is that Mann et al. transformed each tree ring prior to calculating PCs by subtracting the 1902-1980 mean, rather than using the length of the full time series (e.g., 1400-1980), as is generally done. M&M claim that when they used that procedure with a red noise spectrum, it always resulted in a 'hockey stick'. Is this true? If so, it constitutes a devastating criticism of the approach; if not, it should be refuted. While IPCC cannot be expected to respond to every criticism a priori, this one has gotten such publicity it would be foolhardy to avoid it. In addition, there are other valid criticisms to the PC approach. Assuming that the PC structure stays the same was acknowledged in the Mann et al paper as somewhat risky, given the possibility of altered climate forcing (e.g., solar). Attempting to reconstruct tropical temperatures using high latitude PCs assumes that the PCs are influenced only by global scale processes. In a paper we now have in review in JGR, and in other papers already published, it is shown that high latitude climate changes can directly affect the local expression of the modes of variability (NAO in particular). So attempting to fill in data at other locations from PCs that could have local influences may not work well; at the least, it has large uncertainties associated with it. The section from p.18-20 - simulations of temperature change over the last millennium , including regional expressions - should not be in this section. It is covered in the modeling section (several different times), and will undoubtedly be in other chapters as well. And the first paragraph on p. 19 is not right - only by using different forcings have models been able to get similar responses (which does not constitute good agreement). The discussion in the first paragraph of p. 20 is not right - the dynamic response is almost entirely in winter, which would not have affected the 'warm season bias' paleoreconstructions used to prove it. It also conflicts with ocean data (Gerard Bond, personal communication). Anyway, it's part of the section that should be dropped. pp. 20-28: The glacial variations should be summarized in a coherentglobal picture. Variations as a function of time should be noted - not just lumped together between 1400 and 1850 - for example, it should be noted where glaciers advanced during the 17th century and retreated during the 19th century, for that is important in understanding possible causes for the Little Ice Age (as well as the validity of the 'hockey stick'). The discussion on the bottom of p.25-27 as to the causes of the variations is inappropriate and should be dropped - note if solar forcing is suspect, every paragraph that relates observed changes to solar forcing will be equally suspect (e.g., see also p. 44, first paragraph). Bottom of p. 27: Greene et al. (GRL, 26, 1909-1912, 1999) did an analysis of 52 glaciated areas from 30-60N and found that the highest correlation between their ELA variations in the last 40 years was with summer season freezing height and winter season precip. The warm season freezing height was by far more important. Therefore, the relationship of glacier variations to NAO changes (which are important only in winter), as discussed in this paragraph, while perhaps valid for a period of time in southern Norway, is not generally applicable. p. 34-36 on forcings: note that this is redundant to what is discussed in several later sections (e.g., 6.5.2); and other chapters), and that is true of forcing in general for the whole of section 6.2. I would strongly suggest dropping forcing from section 6.3.2.1, at least, and perhaps giving it its own number, or referring to othersubsections for it. It has a different flavor from the responses, and the section is already very big. Forcing does need to be discussed in the paleoclimate chapter, for reasons of climate sensitivity and explaining observations, but that is what Chapter 6.5 is about. (In summary - 6.3.2.1 already is taking on one controversy - paleotemperatures, which is needs to do better, It should not have to deal with the forcing problems as well, and especially not in an off-handed way.) Specific comments: p. 36: 6 ppm corresponds to a temperature response of 0.3 to 0.6°K using the IPCC sensitivity range. p. 36, last paragraph: one could equally well conclude that the reconstructions are showing temperature changes that are too small. This is the essence of the problem with the last 2000 years: if the reconstructions are right, either there was no solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is very low. If the real world had more variability, either there was solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is high (as is internal variability). I've tried to say this in the climate sensitivity sub-chapter. pp. 37-41: obviously a lot of overlap, but it shouldn't be hard to combine these. p. 39, first paragraph: but can the models fully explain what is thought to have happened? Quantification is important here, because many of the same climate/veg models are being used to assess future changes in vegetation. p. 42 - first full paragraph: what are the implications of the methane drop without a CO2 drop? p. 43, middle paragraph: obviously should mention solar-orbital forcing in this paragraph. p. 44, first paragraph: again, assuming a solar forcing p. 45, first paragraph: overlap with pp. 20-28. Second paragraph: overlap with p.39, last full paragraph p. 52 - repeat of p. 43. ******* END From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** Thanks! Cheers, peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\BriffaComments.doc" 3053. 2005-01-05 09:55:24 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , "Piers Forster" date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 09:55:24 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Chapter 2 Forcings - the latest on solar from Judith Lean to: Keith Briffa , Gabi Hegerl , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , "Ricardo Villalba" , lean@demeter.nrl.navy.mil Hi gang - attached is the hot off the press view on solar and volcanic forcing from Chap 2. The purpose of my email is to start the process of making sure we (at least chapters 2, 6 and 9) have compatible perspectives on the isses, particularly solar. Keith is the chapter 6 lead (Ricardo the second) on the last 2000 years (section 6.3.2.1), and David and Fortunat on climate forcing (sec 6.5.2). David and Keith are doing our last 2000 model eval section (sec 6.4.3.2). In order to help Keith and Ricardo get their section down to size, we've suggested that they move discussion of the forcing to 6.5.2 (David and Fortunat need to finish this). Keith has not yet responded that this is ok, but let's go with it until he gets back into the mix. I've also sent this to Gabe (Happy New Year Gabe!). I suggest that the likely email discussion of the solar issue (perhaps volcanic will be a bit hot too) is cc'd to all on this email, plus any others that we think are key. I'm not sure Judith is on email right now, but she's on the list too for obvious reasons (Piers is the CLA coordinating this for Chap 2, so he's on too). My personal take is that much of what has been done wrt to solar in the paleo literature is now more suspect, but I think Fortunat in particular might have some sage comments on this. The main thing is that we don't ignore the latest work that suggests that solar forcing is more subdued than often thought. Debate? Thanks Chap 6 authors for coordinating with the other chapters (e.g., 2 and 9) on this issue. Best to all, Peck >X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >From: "Piers Forster" >To: "'Jonathan Overpeck'" >Subject: RE: Early draft: Natural Forcings >Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 11:07:01 -0000 >Thread-Index: AcTyk5zrDHPy1i6XQ6OYxcStlz6FtwAgtapg >X-Scanner: exiscan *1Cm919-00056N-00*XIzGZ/vmCRE* (The University of Reading) >X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu > > >Yes, please do send it... >This is what we have at the moment >Cheers > >Piers > > -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\natual.doc" 1605. 2005-01-05 11:15:53 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 11:15:53 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Fwd: Re: the Arctic paper and IPCC to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith - great (!) to hear from you - hope you had a good holiday. Your reward (ha) is the attached paper and comment below from Konrad. He can supply data if needed for a synthetic figure, but we can add this later once the Science paper he mentions (w/ us a co-authors among millions, I assume) gets vetted more. Your call. I'm still not convinced about the AO recon, and am worried about the late 20th century "coolness" in the proxy recon that's not in the instrumental, but it's a nice piece of work in any case. Now, for all the issues you raise on other stuff in your email, I'll address to you and that crowd. thanks, Peck >X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 10:53:56 -0500 >From: Konrad Hughen >Organization: WHOI >X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >To: Jonathan Overpeck >Subject: Re: the Arctic paper and IPCC >X-Virus-Status: No >X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu > >Hey Peck, > >Here's a pdf of a draft of Peter's methods paper. The figures will >be what goes into the Science paper. I've sent the whole thing to >help explain the figs, but let me know if you guys have questions. >Also, I have a movie of reconstructed Arctic temp through time. Too >big to attach but I'll try and get it to you somehow. Pretty cool. >We're planning to include the movie and supplemental figs >("robustness" tests, etc.) into the new website Matt's working on. > >Good to talk yesterday. I'll get a CV to you today. > >-Konrad > -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\ArcticOct16.pdf" 3685. 2005-01-05 11:17:13 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 11:17:13 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: ps to: Keith Briffa Keith - ps, pls don't circulate the paper from Konrad and Peter - it's still for internal use only, thx, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 426. 2005-01-05 12:24:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , "Ricardo Villalba" date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 12:24:47 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith and Co - I think David likes a good debates, so the main thing is to consider his comments and respond appropriately. Although the first priority has to be on the ZOD text and display items, maybe you can go back over his comments AFTER the looming deadline and further discuss things with David and others. For now, just work away. The biggest issue is how to handle forcing and simulations - i.e., where to put different pieces in the chapter. Eystein and I will help the team work through this. More soon, but for now just proceed as you have been proceeding. There is real merit to the concept that your section is about how climate varied over the last 2ka, and what caused these variations. The flip side is that we need to get a clear vision of how this differs from what goes into the other sections. Eystein and I will work more on this asap. Your plan re: glaciers is good. That's a tough one, but it has to be boiled WAY down. Moreover, my gut is to focus on the extent to which these complicated natural archives (e.g., complicated by ppt change) support or do not support the other proxy evidence/conclusions. This is why I was thinking we might think about a box, and to include the Lonnie perspective in it - e.g., glaciers are now melting everywhere (almost - we know why they are not in those places) in a manner unprecedented in the last xxxx years. Make sense? See what Olga says, and if needbe, I can help focus that stuff more. Thanks! Peck >Hi Peck (et al) >I am considering comments (including David's) re last 2000 years - >some are valid = some are not . Will try to chop out bits but we >need this consensus re the forcing and responses bit - I am for >keeping the forcings in as much as they relate to the specific model >runs done - and results for last 1000 years as I suspect that they >will not be covered in the same way elsewhere . David makes couple >good points - but extent to which forcings different (or >implementation) perhaps need addressing here. The basic agreement I >mean is that the recent warming is generally unprecedented in these >simulations. >It will take time and input from the tropical ice core /coral people >to do the regional stuff well . I think the glaciological stuff is a >real problem - other than just showing recent glacial states (also >covered elsewhere) - of course difficult to interpret any past >records without modelling responses (as in borehole data), but this >requires considerable space . My executive decision would be to ask >Olga to try to write a couple of papragraphs on limits of >interpretation for inferring precisely timed global temperature >changes? What do others think? I only heaved Olga's stuff in at >last moment rather than not include it - but of course it needs >considerable shortening. The discussion of tree-ring stuff is >problematic because it requires papers to be published eg direct >criticism of Esper et al. We surely do not want to waste space HERE >going into this esoteric topic? All points on seasonality , I agree >with , but the explicit stuff on M+M re hockey stick - where is >this? ie the bit about normalisation base affecting redness in >reconstructions - sounds nonsense to me ? > >I have to consider the comments in detail but am happy for hard >direction re space and focus. If concensus is no forcings and model >results here fine with me - Peck and Eystein to rule >Keith > -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3958. 2005-01-05 15:03:17 ______________________________________________________ cc: Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de date: Wed Jan 5 15:03:17 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Mike Mann's claims to: Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, mas@dmi.dk Dear Hans I can only think that these comments relate to my suggestion (made to Mike and others at a recent CLIVAR/PAGES meeting in Canada) that we ( ie those interested parties) need to organise a well formulated co-operative experiment , where the same data sets can be used to run a series of controlled comparisons of different calibration techniques. In discussing the results of the your work and earlier attempts to use the ORIGINAL Mann et al 1998,1999 techniques (by Eduardo and Irene ) I commented that we could still not be sure that the methods were being applied in the same way. Mike's more recent spatial transfer function work (Rutherford et al ) - on which Tim and I are co-authors , compared a different technique than he originally used , with our approach (based on local aggregation of chronologies and simple regression to produce regional reconstructions , which were then used in a PC regression to produce a NH series). These give similar results as regards NH land summer temperatures. This paper predates your Science piece. As we (Tim and I) believe the local calibration and aggregation approach is very likely to lead to underestimation of long-timescale variance in the larger (NH) series , we believed it a logical conclusion that Mike's approach did so also. You then published your paper demonstrating that his original approach likely does just that. However, Mike has apparently shown that his NEW method , when used with pseudo proxies and a different climate model does NOT lose the low-frequency. He showed some results briefly in Canada that seemed to demonstrate this - but incidentally, DID seem to lose the high frequency extreme variability. I have NOT read this paper , which I believe is in review (NOT BY ME). Mike did not , however, use his original technique (that you purportedly follow in your Science piece, though others (not sure who ) that he is working with might be doing this. However the new Mann method DOES seem to produce the same NH curve as the original method. Hence an apparent contradiction . Hence my belief that the different methods should be used , with the same data (and targets) in a much more systematic way, to see how they compare. This experiment should include the use of the same simulated data also. Tim and I have commented (in our perspective piece) that the loss of long-timescale amplitude in the NH history might be exaggerated by the results of your use of the ECHO G simulation - as this may produce too large an amplitude in the first place (for different reasons) and so the question of how great the underestimation in the Mann original NH reconstruction is in real life is still a moot point - and hence the real need to set up this controlled test using the alternative simulations, methods. I have nothing in press other than the Rutherford paper and have said nothing other than the above. I would like to set up the comparative exercise - as part of SOAP perhaps - but with the collaboration of Mike and his colleagues if they are willing. Hope we can discuss this at the next SOAP meeting best wishes Keith At 18:34 04/01/2005, Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de wrote: Dear Martin, dear Keith, Mike Mann has made the following claims: "You should be aware that a comment is in press in "Science" casting significant doubt on the claims of Von Storch and Zorita, and another paper, in review, suggests that their conclusions are incorrect, . A 3rd paper, by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) group using the same model as von Storch, cannot reproduce the von Stroch results (they find much less variability than von Storch), suggesting that their were some serious problems with the von Storch simulation as well as with their analysis of the simulation results. I would suggest that you get in touch with these individuals (e.g. Keith Briffa: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk or Martin Stendel: mas@dmi.dk) for a more balanced view of the Von Storch claims." May I ask you to verify this statement and, if true, send us a copy of your papers? And, possibly, explain your "more balanced views"? All the best Hans Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502 GEESTHACHT, Germany ph: +49 4152 87 1831, fx: +49 4152 87 2832 mobile: + 49 171 212 2046 [1]http://w3g.gkss.de/staff/storch; storch@gkss.de -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 972. 2005-01-05 15:27:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jan 5 15:27:09 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: IPCC to: Valerie.Masson@cea.fr Valerie I am considering what to do as regards regional input , and how to frame in the context of MWP /LIA discussion. If we do use these numbers you send - we would rather use the 2000 years - also is there a formal calibration that would provide some indication of uncertainty if interpreted as regional temperatures? thanks Keith At 14:56 05/01/2005, you wrote: Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by sainfoin.extra.cea.fr id j05EuO1U025685 Hi Keith Here are a few lines and references for the poles, together with a data file with temperatures or temperature indices for both poles. Hope that you will find it useful for IPCC. Also, what are your plans for IMPRINT WP1 budget and others? Valerie. Keith Briffa wrote: This is my fault I realise I did not say specifically what I wanted - in fact I would like a detailed section on forcings (and a detailed Figure) and in the regional discussions , sections on the Arctic, Northern Extra tropics , Tropics, southern extra tropics and Antartic. Can you provide a few sentences for any and data to draw plots? Keith At 16:36 17/12/2004, you wrote: Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by sainfoin.extra.cea.fr id iBHGZwwE025241 Dear Keith, I thought I was not expected to contribute so much for the last millenia. For Antarctica : I suggest to refer to the paper by Goosse et al GRL 2004 attached (2003GL...pdf) and the paper by Bradley Science 2003 about latitudinal patterns associated to the warmth during the medieval period and the apparent phase lag between Antarctica and the northern hemisphere. For Greenland : Hoffmann et al JGR 2001 use deuterium excess in central Greenland to suggest a significant cooling of the north Atlantic during the Little Ice Age. For Europe : Using tree ring cellulose isotopes a reconstruction of drought frequencies in Brittany has been achieved (published online, Climate Dynamics, pre print attached) for the last 400 years. It suggests that droughts are large as 1976 were twice more frequent during the warm decades than the cold decades (mean temperature difference of the two groups of 0.8 deg C). I suggest also to include references to works that place summer 2003 heat wave in Europe in a broader perspective including Luterbacher et al 2004 and Chuine et al 2004 (from grape harvest dates and phenology model). I hope that it does help... Got almost no contribution for the Holocene section either. Hope you may have suggestions. Best wishes and see you next year Valérie. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 5124. 2005-01-05 17:41:56 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Gabi Hegerl , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , "Ricardo Villalba" , lean@demeter.nrl.navy.mil date: Wed Jan 5 17:41:56 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi Peck (et al) I am considering comments (including David's) re last 2000 years - some are valid = some are not . Will try to chop out bits but we need this consensus re the forcing and responses bit - I am for keeping the forcings in as much as they relate to the specific model runs done - and results for last 1000 years as I suspect that they will not be covered in the same way elsewhere . David makes couple good points - but extent to which forcings different (or implementation) perhaps need addressing here. The basic agreement I mean is that the recent warming is generally unprecedented in these simulations. It will take time and input from the tropical ice core /coral people to do the regional stuff well . I think the glaciological stuff is a real problem - other than just showing recent glacial states (also covered elsewhere) - of course difficult to interpret any past records without modelling responses (as in borehole data), but this requires considerable space . My executive decision would be to ask Olga to try to write a couple of papragraphs on limits of interpretation for inferring precisely timed global temperature changes? What do others think? I only heaved Olga's stuff in at last moment rather than not include it - but of course it needs considerable shortening. The discussion of tree-ring stuff is problematic because it requires papers to be published eg direct criticism of Esper et al. We surely do not want to waste space HERE going into this esoteric topic? All points on seasonality , I agree with , but the explicit stuff on M+M re hockey stick - where is this? ie the bit about normalisation base affecting redness in reconstructions - sounds nonsense to me ? I have to consider the comments in detail but am happy for hard direction re space and focus. If concensus is no forcings and model results here fine with me - Peck and Eystein to rule Keith 2586. 2005-01-05 17:53:34 ______________________________________________________ cc: trond.dokken@bjerknes.uib.no date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 17:53:34 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Important chapter 6 coordination feedback from CLAs to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi all Chap 6 LAs: There has been some debate about what material goes where, and how three main sections of our chapter (3,4 and 5) should relate to each other and the rest of the AR4 document. Attached and below is some specific guidance (look for your name in bold). Please let Eystein and Peck know if there are any questions. Section 6.2 is also key, but is focused more on methods, and is thus not part of the debate that sparked the feedback below. Thanks, Peck and Eystein. Notes on required balance between Chap 6 Sections 3, 4, and 5 IPCC AR4 Input from Peck and Eystein for all LA and key CA's to read. David Rind has brought up the issue of how discussion of forcing and paleo simulations fit in to the various parts of the chapter. It is key that we reduce redundancy to a minimum, and that the various sections cross-reference and support each other. Moreover, we want our chapter to mesh well with the rest of the AR4 WGI report. Over the last12 hours we have had lots of discussion, and Eystein and I propose the following plan: 1) section 6.3 (Understanding past change - various parts) - focus is on what climate change happened and why, but only where relevant to policy. For example, for 6.3.2 - it's all about whether late 20th century warmth etc is unprecedented and likely due to humans. Can natural variability be a possible cause of what's happened over the last 100 years, and if so, to what extent. Confidence? Thus, in this section, have to include discussion of forcing and simulations in order to assess (understand) the described past change. Keith (6.3.2.1) - your section can proceed as planned, with the figs you suggest (e.g., showing hypoth forcing, simulated change and reconstructed change). Need to work in compatibility with the Chapter 2 discussion of solar and volcanic forcing. Read on Valerie (6.3.2.2) - both Eystein and Peck need to give you more specific feedback - you'll get this soon, so please keep time open to work fast and furiously. Dominique (6.3.2.3) - you have material to integrate, but still a big job. Key is to keep it focused on what is relevant to policy makers. Eystein's comments are key. David and Stefan (Deep Time Box) - this is looking good - next iteration is nearing completion according to David. 2) section 6.4. (Model Evaluation) - this section should be focused less (much less) on what happened in the past, and more on how paleo supports or does not support the performance of models (whole hierarchy) begin used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Can draw from Section 6.3, and should not be redundant. Section leaders - please revise with the above in mind. Keep focused on model evaluation, and only wrt to those models (categories of models) being used by other WG1 chapters to assess future change. 3) section 6.5 (Synthesis) - this section is designed to pull thing together from all the previous sections, as well as other chapters (e.g., chapter 2) and not yet tapped sources, to make short key statements about topics highly relevant to policy makers. The section 6.5 subsections should cut across time scales and model types. What are the key take home messages that haven't already been made in previous sections? How can we make our chapter more seamless with others? Keith - we have decided to eliminate Section 6.5.2. This means you can use any of that prose (David's) as appropriate or needed. This frees up your section to integrate forcings as planned in section 6.3.2.1 Fortunat and Dominique (6.5.3) - this section SHOULD have implications for the future, and should be more explicit in terms of why the issues you raise in the existing prose is relevant (e.g., CO2 feedback and orbital amplification - the point is that the climate system can amplify subtle changes in forcing, but connect to policy implications) Ricardo and Keith (6.5.4) - modes - this needs to be condensed and this might be made easier by referring back to section 6.3 more. Otherwise, you are on the right track. I'll try to get Julie Cole (we found a baby sitter!!) to help with the tropical part (for 6.3.2.1 too). Maybe bring in Indian Ocean. Hopefully, you (Ricardo, since Keith is buried in 6.3.2.1) create the new section - stay focused on issues that are relevant to policy and decision makers. Ramesh and Valerie (6.5.5) - extremes - I've already contacted you both about this one. Hopefully Valerie will add to Ramesh's good start, and I'll chip in as well. Let's Ramesh work on 6.5.9 Jean-Claude and Dominique (6.5.6) - abrupt change - looking forward to seeing what you can do here. Evaluate and integrate Fortunat's contribution as appropriate. Needs to complement and not repeat what's in the other abrupt change sections you are help lead (6.3.3 and 6.4.3.3). Dick and Dominique (6.5.7) - sea level - need this soon!! This is straightforward in that this is the primary place for sea level in our chapter. It must be focused on what's relevant to policy makers - e.g., what paleo says about likely future sea level change. Must also be well referenced, and can have a figure. Must anticipate and be complementary to what's in other chapters. Lastly, needs to be 1 page single-spaced. I can help if needed, but hope Dick and Dominique lead this in a strong manner. David and Co (6.5.8) - you get a tad more space, but we like your focus on a QUANTITATIVE analysis of forcing and response; and sensitivity. We're hoping you'll share your next version with Stefan, Fortunat, Bette, and us as soon as you can. We understand that you will have no figures. Ramesh and Dan (6.5.9) - looking forward to something here - remember it must be relevant to policy makers and not repeat what's in other parts of chapter. I suggest the main theme be that paleo illustrates how global climate change will manifest itself regionally. In many cases, the regional changes will be more extreme and hard to anticipate/predict than broader scale (hemispheric and global) changes. Need to provide examples - drought, flood frequency, storms, regional warming, monsoon shifts, etc, but be careful to complement, rather than repeat other sections. Perhaps the trick is to make the extremes and abrupt change sections above more generic and make the regional section more specific to certain regions. In the end we might want a map of world with annotations of what the paleo data/analysis suggests should be a major concern region by region. For example, in the SW US, it's a) more frequent, longer drought, b) lower river flows c) increased occurrence of large floods (which, by the way, usually don't help with drought), d) greater incursion of tropical storm moisture (related to floods - both Pacific and Atlantic storms get into SW), e) increased winter temps (more moisture stress if we get rid of sub-freezing weather, f) more , decreased snowpack (less river flow), and g) much hotter temps. Paleo can only inform - provide examples and proof that it can happen - a through d. The others are more difficult to tease out of paleo, and should be left for the regional prediction chapter. I could write this up if you'd like, but the key is to figure out a way to keep it to 2 pages single spaced - perhaps provide an overview of the issue with a few key examples (chosen strategically - maybe SW US, Europe, East Africa, and South Asia - can bring in sea level rise too, and how that might combine with other factors (e.g., more tropical storms), and an enhanced monsoon generated river flow/floods to really hurt coastal areas. Let me know what I can do to help. Please note that although we have gotten rid of two section numbers, we will stick with the original section numbers for now to avoid confusion. This will change, of course, in the final ZOD. Thanks, Peck and Eystein -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Chap6OrganizationMemo.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4691. 2005-01-05 21:09:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , Ricardo Villalba , lean@demeter.nrl.navy.mil, Eystein Jansen , Piers Forster date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 21:09:12 -0500 (EST) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: Chapter 2 Forcings - the latest on solar from Judith Lean to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi everybody, Thanks JOnathan for sending this, we'll have a look at it. Our chapter is out with the LAs for a last check right now, but so far, we have only a little bit on solar signals. They are detectable in some approaches and not in others, appear possibly enhanced in some (mostly 20th century) and possibly diminished in others (particularly for last millenium), so there is no clear picture. Apart from that even if solar were enhanced, it could not explain the 20th century warming. Does this sound ok with you? If yes, lets do some more coordination once the zeroth draft is submitted, does that sound ok? Happy new year to everybody Gabi On Wed, 5 Jan 2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > Hi gang - attached is the hot off the press view on solar and > volcanic forcing from Chap 2. The purpose of my email is to start the > process of making sure we (at least chapters 2, 6 and 9) have > compatible perspectives on the isses, particularly solar. > > Keith is the chapter 6 lead (Ricardo the second) on the last 2000 > years (section 6.3.2.1), and David and Fortunat on climate forcing > (sec 6.5.2). David and Keith are doing our last 2000 model eval > section (sec 6.4.3.2). In order to help Keith and Ricardo get their > section down to size, we've suggested that they move discussion of > the forcing to 6.5.2 (David and Fortunat need to finish this). Keith > has not yet responded that this is ok, but let's go with it until he > gets back into the mix. > > I've also sent this to Gabe (Happy New Year Gabe!). > > I suggest that the likely email discussion of the solar issue > (perhaps volcanic will be a bit hot too) is cc'd to all on this > email, plus any others that we think are key. I'm not sure Judith is > on email right now, but she's on the list too for obvious reasons > (Piers is the CLA coordinating this for Chap 2, so he's on too). > > My personal take is that much of what has been done wrt to solar in > the paleo literature is now more suspect, but I think Fortunat in > particular might have some sage comments on this. The main thing is > that we don't ignore the latest work that suggests that solar forcing > is more subdued than often thought. > > Debate? Thanks Chap 6 authors for coordinating with the other > chapters (e.g., 2 and 9) on this issue. > > Best to all, Peck > > > > >X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 > >From: "Piers Forster" > >To: "'Jonathan Overpeck'" > >Subject: RE: Early draft: Natural Forcings > >Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 11:07:01 -0000 > >Thread-Index: AcTyk5zrDHPy1i6XQ6OYxcStlz6FtwAgtapg > >X-Scanner: exiscan *1Cm919-00056N-00*XIzGZ/vmCRE* (The University of Reading) > >X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu > > > > > >Yes, please do send it... > >This is what we have at the moment > >Cheers > > > >Piers > > > > > > -- > Jonathan T. Overpeck > Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > Professor, Department of Geosciences > Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > > Mail and Fedex Address: > > Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > University of Arizona > Tucson, AZ 85721 > direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > fax: +1 520 792-8795 > http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1940. 2005-01-05 21:17:41 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , Ricardo Villalba , lean@demeter.nrl.navy.mil date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 21:17:41 -0500 (EST) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: Keith Briffa Hi again, we have a figure with forcing and simulations for last 1-2 millenia drafted by Pascale, but there is not a lot of forcing discussion in the chapter for the last millenium apart from a timeseries in pascales figure. Mostly, we are drawing on you guys. Our section on the last millenium simulations not very detailed, focusing more on the big picture (20th century sticks out) than the individual episodes (like medieval warm period/maunder minimum). I think this was what we approximately decided how to slice it but its been a while.... Gabi On Wed, 5 Jan 2005, Keith Briffa wrote: > Hi Peck (et al) > I am considering comments (including David's) re last 2000 years - some are > valid = some are not . Will try to chop out bits but we need this > consensus re the forcing and responses bit - I am for keeping the forcings > in as much as they relate to the specific model runs done - and results for > last 1000 years as I suspect that they will not be covered in the same way > elsewhere . David makes couple good points - but extent to which forcings > different (or implementation) perhaps need addressing here. The basic > agreement I mean is that the recent warming is generally unprecedented in > these simulations. > It will take time and input from the tropical ice core /coral people to do > the regional stuff well . I think the glaciological stuff is a real problem > - other than just showing recent glacial states (also covered elsewhere) - > of course difficult to interpret any past records without modelling > responses (as in borehole data), but this requires considerable space . My > executive decision would be to ask Olga to try to write a couple of > papragraphs on limits of interpretation for inferring precisely timed > global temperature changes? What do others think? I only heaved Olga's > stuff in at last moment rather than not include it - but of course it needs > considerable shortening. The discussion of tree-ring stuff is problematic > because it requires papers to be published eg direct criticism of Esper et > al. We surely do not want to waste space HERE going into this esoteric > topic? All points on seasonality , I agree with , but the explicit stuff > on M+M re hockey stick - where is this? ie the bit about normalisation base > affecting redness in reconstructions - sounds nonsense to me ? > > I have to consider the comments in detail but am happy for hard direction > re space and focus. If concensus is no forcings and model results here fine > with me - Peck and Eystein to rule > Keith > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- 3575. 2005-01-06 08:24:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jan 6 08:24:00 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: revised UHI paper to: "Thomas C Peterson" Tom, It shows it even more clearly than I expected ! This should stop UHI being an issue in IPCC - I hope. Hopefully the paper will get accepted soon and be out in 2005 - this is the date I have it down for. After Beijing I may need to get a pdf from you if we need to send all possible pdfs for papers in press/submitted etc with the FOD. Cheers Phil At 21:41 05/01/2005, you wrote: Hi, Phil, I wanted to thank you for your insightful review of our UHI paper. We did the analysis you suggested and produced a figure that I think shows the point you were expecting it to make very clearly (the last figure in the attached revised version of the paper). Warm regards, -Tom Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 222. 2005-01-06 08:54:58 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Thomas C Peterson" date: Thu Jan 6 08:54:58 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Fwd: Monthly CLIMATbulletins to: "Parker, David (Met Office)" , Neil Plummer Neil, Just to reiterate David's points, I'm hoping that IPCC will stick with 1961-90. The issue of confusing users/media with new anomalies from a different base period is the key one in my mind. Arguments about the 1990s being better observed than the 1960s don't hold too much water with me. There is some discussion of going to 1981-2000 to help the modelling chapters. If we do this it will be a bit of a bodge as it will be hard to do things properly for the surface temp and precip as we'd lose loads of stations with long records that would then have incomplete normals. If we do we will likely achieve it by rezeroing series and maps in an ad hoc way. There won't be any move by IPCC to go for 1971-2000, as it won't help with satellite series or the models. 1981-2000 helps with MSU series and the much better Reanalyses and also globally-complete SST. 20 years (1981-2000) isn't 30 years, but the rationale for 30 years isn't that compelling. The original argument was for 35 years around 1900 because Bruckner found 35 cycles in some west Russian lakes (hence periods like 1881-1915). This went to 30 as it easier to compute. Personally I don't want to change the base period till after I retire ! Cheers Phil At 09:22 05/01/2005, Parker, David (Met Office) wrote: Neil There is a preference in the atmospheric observations chapter of IPCC AR4 to stay with the 1961-1990 normals. This is partly because a change of normals confuses users, e.g. anomalies will seem less positive than before if we change to newer normals, so the impression of global warming will be muted. Also we may wish to wait till there are 30 years of satellite data, i.e until we can compute 1981-2010 normals, which will then be globally complete for some parameters like sea surface temperature. Regards David On Tue, 2005-01-04 at 21:58, Neil Plummer wrote: > Hi Hama, Tom > (and David, Blair) > Re: the issue of using the 1971-2000 normals in CLIMAT rather than > 1961-1990 normals. > > Happy New Year! > I have copied the relevant text from CCl XIII below, which provides > reasons for staying with the 1961-90 standard. > My initial recommendation is the same as Tom's, i.e. stay with the > standard for now. > > I think there are two main factors to consider here - capability and > demand. While there are clearly advantages with widespread use of > normals derived using the later period there must be the capacity to > do so. > > Perhaps in the lead-up to CCl-XIV, OPAG 2 can find out the extent of > the support for the change among users of CLIMAT and OPAG 1 can find > out more about capabilities. (Note, however, that this is not strictly > on issue for OPAG 1 according to the ToRs for the ICT and any of the > ETs. Happy to assist though). > > We may use the climate working groups in the Regional Associations to > assist with surveying members capabilities and could do the same > regarding the demand question though I think Tom's CCl/CLIVAR ET is > best placed to give that guidance. > > *** David, Blair - Interested in your thoughts on this matter. > > Cheers > Neil > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- > From CCl XIII ... > > 6.1.2 The Commission noted with satisfaction that > > the 19611990 Standard Normals were now complete > > and expressed its appreciation to NCDC for assembling > > the data as well as to those Members who had contributed > > data. It further noted that the 19611990 > > Standard Normals would remain in use for global purposes > > until the next Standard Normals for the period > > 19912020 were completed. > > 6.1.3 The Commission noted that, in addition to the > > 1961 to 1990 WMO Standard Normals, many countries > > had produced climatic normals using the 1971 to 2000 > > period. The Commission also noted the discussion held > > among Members on whether the standard 30-year normals > > should be accompanied by normals calculated over > > a more current period or a shorter period to reflect > > recent climate variability. The Commission noted the > > usefulness of periods other than the contiguous 30-year > > period for certain analyses below the global scale. > > However it decided to maintain the Climatological > > Standard Normals process, as it provided a common reference > > period for climate research and monitoring > > worldwide. > > > > > Neil Plummer > > Senior Climatologist > > National Climate Centre > > Bureau of Meteorology > > 700 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia > > Tel +61 3 9669 4714; Fax: +61 3 9669 4725; Mobile 0419 117865 > > Email n.plummer@bom.gov.au > > > > > ______________________________________________________________ > From: Thomas C Peterson [[1]mailto:Thomas.C.Peterson@noaa.gov] > Sent: Tuesday, 4 January 2005 1:11 AM > To: H Kontongomde > Cc: Hans Teunissen; Neil Plummer > Subject: Re: Fwd: Monthly CLIMATbulletins > > > Thanks for responding, Hama. I agree with you on both > points. I wonder how many countries produced 71-2000 > Normals? I'll cc Neil Plummer on this as the ET on Observing > Requirements and Standards for Climate is under his > leadership. > Regards, > Tom > > H Kontongomde wrote: > > Dear Tom and Hans, > > > > Happy New Year! I apologize for responding so late. I was on annual > > leave since 13 December. The question of which "Normal" between > > 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 is now frequently asked by many WMO Members. > > Depending on the practical use of the normal, one of the two Normal can > > be preffered to the other. However, the policy for CLIMAT messages is > > to use the 1961-1990 Normals and until CCl change the standard, I would > > also recommend that our colleagues of Turkey continue to use these 61-90 > > normals. This allows spatial comparisons for the entire globe, because, > > not all countries have their 1971-2000 averages ready for use. > > > > However, I think it is time that the CCl Expert Team on Observing > > Requirements and Standards for Climate clarifies the problem in > > explaining why the 61-90 Normals should continue to be the standard or > > why it is time to change. > > > > I will respond to our colleagues of Turkey. > > > > Best regards, > > > > Hama Kontongomde > > > > > > > > > > > Hans Teunissen 1/3/2005 12:16:00 PM >>> > > > > > > > Thanks for those suggestions, Tom. I'm not sure if your two questions > > below were meant to be different (is a word 'change' missing from the > > first?), but I think I get the gist from the answers. Re the CLIMAT code > > official standards, I don't think Dick (or GCOS) is really the right > > person to go to. That would be Hama, or, it seems, OSY (Sasha Karpov) > > since they arranged the publication of TD-1188. Is that right, Hama? And > > are you OK to use Tom's suggestion in the reply to Turkey? > > > > Hans. > > > > > > > > > "Thomas C Peterson" 17.12.04 19:58:42 > > > > > > > > > > > > Dear Hans & Hama, > > > > As you may remember, I was just in Turkey in October interacting with > > many people in their climate group. They have a pretty good team. > > > > The question as I understand it is not the reliability of their data > > that are transmitted (e.g., for December 2004) but for the section of > > the CLIMAT code which shows anomalies to a base period or what quintile > > the precipitation falls in. Turkey indicates that they think their > > 1971-2000 Normals are more reliable than their 1961-1990 Normals. I > > would agree with them that they are probably correct in that. I believe > > the same could be said about the US Normals. > > > > However, as I recall, not all countries redo their Normals every 10 > > years. Many only redo them every 30 years, which, I believe is the WMO > > Standard. So for this WMO coded transmission (CLIMAT) I expect that > > they specify the 1961-1990 Normals. > > > > 1. Would it make a difference in climate monitoring? Yes for those > > users who make use of the anomaly values it could make a big difference. > > More important, probably, than reliability is that the climate changes > > over a decade and taking 1961-1970 out and substituting in 1991-2000 to > > the base period calculation may make a big difference in some cases. > > > > 2. Would it make a difference in climate monitoring? Probably not as > > most climate monitoring groups don't use the reported anomalies each > > month but rather take the observations and use them with Normals they > > already have in a different file. > > > > In sum, if my memory was correct on the coding, I would recommend that > > they continue to use the official standard even if they have something > > better out there because it has the potential for making a significant > > difference and it is important that all groups follow the official > > standard. > > > > Does this sound reasonable? I'm not an expert in the CLIMAT code, so > > you might want to check with Dick about official standards for CLIMAT > > before you answer. > > > > Regards, > > > > Tom > > > > Hans Teunissen wrote: > > Hama: This one looks like it's definitely a concern for CCl/WCD. From > > theGCOS side, it seems just an issue of what's to be in the GSN archive > > -1971 to 2000 (reliable) or 1961 to 1990 (possibly unreliable). My > > votewould be for the former, but I don't know what CCl policy would be. > > Tom,do you agree re the GSN archive? (I see 6 stations for Turkey are > > inthere now, some with very long records; not sure what implication > > ofthis proposal really would be for those...are you?) Or would you > > preferto try to salvage some of the older data there (at NCDC)? Could > > you letus know? I then suggest that Hama respond for the WMO/CCl > > 'system'. Doesthat sound OK? I'll be away from tomorrow until 3 January. > > Best wishes for the Holidays and the New Year, Hans. > > =================================================================Dr. > > Hans W. Teunissen > > Tel:+41.22.730.8086Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Fax: > > +41.22.730.8052c/o World Meteorological Organization > > E-mail:HTeunissen@wmo.int7 bis, Ave. de la PaixCP 2300, CH-1211 > > Geneva > > 2Switzerland================================================================= > > > > > > Subject: > > Fwd: Monthly CLIMATbulletinsFrom: > > "Alexander Karpov" Date: > > Fri, 17 Dec 2004 11:52:43 +0100To: > > "Hans Teunissen" > > Dear Hans,As per attached query, I am kindly relying on your expertise > > how to best navigate the solisitor.Best regards,Sasha *zden Dokuyucu > > 17/12/04 08:58:21 >>> Dear > > colleagues,First of all I want to say that, I find out your e-mail > > addresses from the Web site of WMO. Please excuse me if this question > > doesn't concern you. But if you know who concern this matter, could you > > forward him/her this mail to get answer. I will be very gladif you pay > > attention me.Thanks. We are a group of people who has been working in > > the division of Climate Section,which is the sub departmentof > > Agricultural Meteorology in Turkish State Meteorological Service. This > > department is responsible for collecting all climatedata from the > > observing stations, recording and transmitting them via the > > telecommunication system to the data collectingcentre and archiving them > > properly. This division is also responsible for transmitting monthly > > CLIMAT bulletins to the WMO's relevant service. On behalf of Turkey, we > > consider the climate data, which iclude the period of between 1971 and > > 2000 years, are more trustworty because of the development in > > technological, telecommuniational and training fields. Our experiences > > are supporting this situation. We want to ask you, does it any effect on > > global monitoring system, if we use the period of years 1971-2000 > > instead of 1961-1990in transmitting monthly CLIMAT REPORTS.We would be > > very pleasure if you could get us more information.Yours Sincerely. > > Ozden DOKUYUCUEngineerAgricultural Meteorology and Climatology Analysis > > DepartmentTurkish State Meteorological ServiceP.O. Box: 401 Ankara, > > TurkeyTelephone :+90-312-3022446Fax > > :+90-312-3612371e-mail : odokuyucu@meteor.gov.tr > > -- Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D.Climate Analysis BranchNational Climatic > > Data Center151 Patton AvenueAsheville, NC 28801Voice: > > +1-828-271-4287Fax: +1-828-271-4328 > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1456. 2005-01-06 09:23:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , trond.dokken@bjerknes.uib.no date: Thu, 6 Jan 2005 09:23:42 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: hegerl@duke.edu Hi Gabi - Keith has the green light to be comprehensive and thus supportive of your chapter in the way you describe. I've seen some of it, and it's going to be good I think. Stay tuned, best, Peck >Hi again, we have a figure with forcing and simulations >for last 1-2 millenia drafted by Pascale, but there is not a lot of >forcing discussion in the chapter for the last millenium apart from a >timeseries in pascales figure. Mostly, we are drawing on >you guys. Our section on the last millenium simulations not very detailed, >focusing more on the big picture (20th century sticks out) than the >individual episodes (like medieval warm period/maunder minimum). >I think this was what we approximately decided how to slice it >but its been a while.... > >Gabi > >On Wed, 5 Jan 2005, Keith Briffa wrote: > >> Hi Peck (et al) >> I am considering comments (including David's) re last 2000 years - some are >> valid = some are not . Will try to chop out bits but we need this >> consensus re the forcing and responses bit - I am for keeping the forcings >> in as much as they relate to the specific model runs done - and results for >> last 1000 years as I suspect that they will not be covered in the same way >> elsewhere . David makes couple good points - but extent to which forcings >> different (or implementation) perhaps need addressing here. The basic >> agreement I mean is that the recent warming is generally unprecedented in >> these simulations. >> It will take time and input from the tropical ice core /coral people to do >> the regional stuff well . I think the glaciological stuff is a real problem >> - other than just showing recent glacial states (also covered elsewhere) - >> of course difficult to interpret any past records without modelling >> responses (as in borehole data), but this requires considerable space . My >> executive decision would be to ask Olga to try to write a couple of >> papragraphs on limits of interpretation for inferring precisely timed >> global temperature changes? What do others think? I only heaved Olga's >> stuff in at last moment rather than not include it - but of course it needs >> considerable shortening. The discussion of tree-ring stuff is problematic >> because it requires papers to be published eg direct criticism of Esper et >> al. We surely do not want to waste space HERE going into this esoteric >> topic? All points on seasonality , I agree with , but the explicit stuff >> on M+M re hockey stick - where is this? ie the bit about normalisation base >> affecting redness in reconstructions - sounds nonsense to me ? >> >> I have to consider the comments in detail but am happy for hard direction >> re space and focus. If concensus is no forcings and model results here fine >> with me - Peck and Eystein to rule >> Keith >> >> >> > >-------------------------------------------------------------------- >Gabriele Hegerl >Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment >Duke University, Durham NC 27708 >phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 >email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html >--------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2372. 2005-01-06 09:40:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 06 Jan 2005 09:40:26 +0000 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: the Arctic paper and IPCC to: Tim Osborn Tim confidential for now - but suppose this arctic recon should be in there too? >X-Sender: jto@jto.inbox.email.arizona.edu >Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 11:15:53 -0700 >To: Keith Briffa >From: Jonathan Overpeck >Subject: Fwd: Re: the Arctic paper and IPCC >Cc: Eystein Jansen >X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu >X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information >X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean > >Hi Keith - great (!) to hear from you - hope you had a good holiday. Your >reward (ha) is the attached paper and comment below from Konrad. He can >supply data if needed for a synthetic figure, but we can add this later >once the Science paper he mentions (w/ us a co-authors among millions, I >assume) gets vetted more. Your call. > >I'm still not convinced about the AO recon, and am worried about the late >20th century "coolness" in the proxy recon that's not in the instrumental, >but it's a nice piece of work in any case. > >Now, for all the issues you raise on other stuff in your email, I'll >address to you and that crowd. > >thanks, Peck > >>X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >>Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 10:53:56 -0500 >>From: Konrad Hughen >>Organization: WHOI >>X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >>To: Jonathan Overpeck >>Subject: Re: the Arctic paper and IPCC >>X-Virus-Status: No >>X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu >> >>Hey Peck, >> >>Here's a pdf of a draft of Peter's methods paper. The figures will be >>what goes into the Science paper. I've sent the whole thing to help >>explain the figs, but let me know if you guys have questions. Also, I >>have a movie of reconstructed Arctic temp through time. Too big to >>attach but I'll try and get it to you somehow. Pretty cool. We're >>planning to include the movie and supplemental figs ("robustness" tests, >>etc.) into the new website Matt's working on. >> >>Good to talk yesterday. I'll get a CV to you today. >> >>-Konrad > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\ArcticOct16.pdf" 4403. 2005-01-06 10:11:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: jto@u.arizona.edu,Eystein Jansen date: Thu Jan 6 10:11:46 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: solomina@gol.ru Olga am sending this to get you in this loop re the discussion for slimming down the 2000 year section Basically , IN THIS BIT - the decision is to reduce the glacier evidence to a very much smaller piece , coached in the sense of how the glacier evidence is problematic for interpreting precise and quantitative indications of the extent of regional or Hemispheric Warmth (and even cold) - issues of translating tongue position or volume into specific temperature and precipitation forcing . Hence , I am having to remove the stuff you sent and am asking if you could consider trying to write a brief section dealing with the issues I raise ? I also attach some initial comments by David Rind (on the full first draft of the chapter sent round by Eystein) for consideration Sorry about this - but presumable (as you suggested earlier) some of this can go in the 10K bit. You can shout at me (and the others) later! cheers Keith Hi Keith - Happy new year. Hopefully, you had a good holiday. I've had a chance to read your section and hopefully you've had a chance to read what I sent just before the holidays. The purpose of this email is to help get a focus on the finish line (just a few days away) and to get a dialog going that will hopefully help you finish section 6.3.2.1. If you'd like to talk on the phone, just let me know. Please see my email from right before xmas holidays for original comments. Plus, here are the new ones from both me and David Rind: 0) as leader of this KEY section, we need you to take the lead integrating everything you think should be integrated, editing and boiling it down to just ca 4 pages of final text (e.g., 8 pages of typed text plus figs). This means cutting some material (e.g., forcings and simulations) and perhaps moving glacier record (MUCH boiled down) to a box. See below. 00) note that we can also perhaps move some of the details to the appendix (although we won't write this until after the current ZOD crunch, save an outline of what you might want in there). 1) I like your figure ideas, with the comments: 1a) I don't think you need figure 1d - the SH recons are sketchy since not much data, and it might be better to just discuss in a sentence or three. Any space saved is good too. Not sure about your proposed 1e - have to see it, I guess. 1b) Figure 2 looks interesting. I'm trying to get the latest Arctic recon from Konrad Hughen - it is quite robust and a significant multi-proxy update. Should be published in time, though not sure thing since he's still hot on including his (our) AO recon which is more sketchy 1c) I think we can save space and improve organization if we DO NOT include Fig 3. However, this is open for debate - see David's comments below. 2) I agree with David's comments in general - so see them below. The prickly issue is where to put the forcings and simulated changes. I am close to having the prose from the radiation chapter, including the latest Lean and Co's view on solar - this will make many of the existing simulations involving inferred past solar forcing suspect (I will send in a day or so I hope). This means that we might be best saving space and downplaying this work some. I'm not sure, but wanted to debate it with you. Also, Chap 9 will have simulations in spades, so we can save space by letting them do it. Also, as David points out, we can focus on it elsewhere in our chapter more concisely - leaving you to focus on the VERY important obs record of temp and other changes. Can you tell, I'm still not 100% sure? I'll send another email to you and others about this in a bit. 3) Your section is too long and needs to be condensed. Thus, you need to think through what's most important and what's less so. For example, we need to figure out how to condense the glacier record of change. David thinks it should be a separate section that cuts across time scales (i.e., Holocene and last 2000 years). Perhaps we should try to make it into a box - 3 to 5 short paragraphs and a figure or two. Either way we have to really wack it. What do you think - you and I should be on the same page with Eystein before discussing w/ Olga perhaps. Or you can discuss with her - you're the lead on this section. 4) you're doing an impressive job! Lots to keep track of. Next, here is what David has offered. Take it all with a grain of salt, but I have read it and he has many good points. On the structural or any other points, I'm happy to discuss on the phone, or you can just debate with him and me on email. ******* From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** 6.3 Understanding Past Climate System Change (forcing and response) 6.3.1 Introduction (0.5 pages) 6.3.2 The Current Interglacial 6.3.2.1 Last 2000 years (4 pages) Figure 1 should be of the last 2000 years, with appropriate caveats, not just since 1860 (which will undoubtedly be in other chapters). pp. 8-18: The biggest problem with what appears here is in the handling of the greater variability found in some reconstructions, and the whole discussion of the 'hockey stick'. The tone is defensive, and worse, it both minimizes and avoids the problems. We should clearly say (e.g., page 12 middle paragraph) that there are substantial uncertainties that remain concerning the degree of variability - warming prior to 12K BP, and cooling during the LIA, due primarily to the use of paleo-indicators of uncertain applicability, and the lack of global (especially tropical) data. Attempting to avoid such statements will just cause more problems. In addition, some of the comments are probably wrong - the warm-season bias (p.12) should if anything produce less variability, since warm seasons (at least in GCMs) feature smaller climate changes than cold seasons. The discussion of uncertainties in tree ring reconstructions should be direct, not referred to other references - it's important for this document. How the long-term growth is factored in/out should be mentioned as a prime problem. The lack of tropical data - a few corals prior to 1700 - has got to be discussed. The primary criticism of McIntyre and McKitrick, which has gotten a lot of play on the Internet, is that Mann et al. transformed each tree ring prior to calculating PCs by subtracting the 1902-1980 mean, rather than using the length of the full time series (e.g., 1400-1980), as is generally done. M&M claim that when they used that procedure with a red noise spectrum, it always resulted in a 'hockey stick'. Is this true? If so, it constitutes a devastating criticism of the approach; if not, it should be refuted. While IPCC cannot be expected to respond to every criticism a priori, this one has gotten such publicity it would be foolhardy to avoid it. In addition, there are other valid criticisms to the PC approach. Assuming that the PC structure stays the same was acknowledged in the Mann et al paper as somewhat risky, given the possibility of altered climate forcing (e.g., solar). Attempting to reconstruct tropical temperatures using high latitude PCs assumes that the PCs are influenced only by global scale processes. In a paper we now have in review in JGR, and in other papers already published, it is shown that high latitude climate changes can directly affect the local expression of the modes of variability (NAO in particular). So attempting to fill in data at other locations from PCs that could have local influences may not work well; at the least, it has large uncertainties associated with it. The section from p.18-20 - simulations of temperature change over the last millennium , including regional expressions - should not be in this section. It is covered in the modeling section (several different times), and will undoubtedly be in other chapters as well. And the first paragraph on p. 19 is not right - only by using different forcings have models been able to get similar responses (which does not constitute good agreement). The discussion in the first paragraph of p. 20 is not right - the dynamic response is almost entirely in winter, which would not have affected the 'warm season bias' paleoreconstructions used to prove it. It also conflicts with ocean data (Gerard Bond, personal communication). Anyway, it's part of the section that should be dropped. pp. 20-28: The glacial variations should be summarized in a coherentglobal picture. Variations as a function of time should be noted - not just lumped together between 1400 and 1850 - for example, it should be noted where glaciers advanced during the 17th century and retreated during the 19th century, for that is important in understanding possible causes for the Little Ice Age (as well as the validity of the 'hockey stick'). The discussion on the bottom of p.25-27 as to the causes of the variations is inappropriate and should be dropped - note if solar forcing is suspect, every paragraph that relates observed changes to solar forcing will be equally suspect (e.g., see also p. 44, first paragraph). Bottom of p. 27: Greene et al. (GRL, 26, 1909-1912, 1999) did an analysis of 52 glaciated areas from 30-60N and found that the highest correlation between their ELA variations in the last 40 years was with summer season freezing height and winter season precip. The warm season freezing height was by far more important. Therefore, the relationship of glacier variations to NAO changes (which are important only in winter), as discussed in this paragraph, while perhaps valid for a period of time in southern Norway, is not generally applicable. p. 34-36 on forcings: note that this is redundant to what is discussed in several later sections (e.g., 6.5.2); and other chapters), and that is true of forcing in general for the whole of section 6.2. I would strongly suggest dropping forcing from section 6.3.2.1, at least, and perhaps giving it its own number, or referring to othersubsections for it. It has a different flavor from the responses, and the section is already very big. Forcing does need to be discussed in the paleoclimate chapter, for reasons of climate sensitivity and explaining observations, but that is what Chapter 6.5 is about. (In summary - 6.3.2.1 already is taking on one controversy - paleotemperatures, which is needs to do better, It should not have to deal with the forcing problems as well, and especially not in an off-handed way.) Specific comments: p. 36: 6 ppm corresponds to a temperature response of 0.3 to 0.6°K using the IPCC sensitivity range. p. 36, last paragraph: one could equally well conclude that the reconstructions are showing temperature changes that are too small. This is the essence of the problem with the last 2000 years: if the reconstructions are right, either there was no solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is very low. If the real world had more variability, either there was solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is high (as is internal variability). I've tried to say this in the climate sensitivity sub-chapter. pp. 37-41: obviously a lot of overlap, but it shouldn't be hard to combine these. p. 39, first paragraph: but can the models fully explain what is thought to have happened? Quantification is important here, because many of the same climate/veg models are being used to assess future changes in vegetation. p. 42 - first full paragraph: what are the implications of the methane drop without a CO2 drop? p. 43, middle paragraph: obviously should mention solar-orbital forcing in this paragraph. p. 44, first paragraph: again, assuming a solar forcing p. 45, first paragraph: overlap with pp. 20-28. Second paragraph: overlap with p.39, last full paragraph p. 52 - repeat of p. 43. ******* END From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** X-Sender: jto@jto.inbox.email.arizona.edu Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 12:24:47 -0700 To: Keith Briffa From: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data Cc: Eystein Jansen , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , "Ricardo Villalba" X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Hi Keith and Co - I think David likes a good debates, so the main thing is to consider his comments and respond appropriately. Although the first priority has to be on the ZOD text and display items, maybe you can go back over his comments AFTER the looming deadline and further discuss things with David and others. For now, just work away. The biggest issue is how to handle forcing and simulations - i.e., where to put different pieces in the chapter. Eystein and I will help the team work through this. More soon, but for now just proceed as you have been proceeding. There is real merit to the concept that your section is about how climate varied over the last 2ka, and what caused these variations. The flip side is that we need to get a clear vision of how this differs from what goes into the other sections. Eystein and I will work more on this asap. Your plan re: glaciers is good. That's a tough one, but it has to be boiled WAY down. Moreover, my gut is to focus on the extent to which these complicated natural archives (e.g., complicated by ppt change) support or do not support the other proxy evidence/conclusions. This is why I was thinking we might think about a box, and to include the Lonnie perspective in it - e.g., glaciers are now melting everywhere (almost - we know why they are not in those places) in a manner unprecedented in the last xxxx years. Make sense? See what Olga says, and if needbe, I can help focus that stuff more. Thanks! Peck Hi Peck (et al) I am considering comments (including David's) re last 2000 years - some are valid = some are not . Will try to chop out bits but we need this consensus re the forcing and responses bit - I am for keeping the forcings in as much as they relate to the specific model runs done - and results for last 1000 years as I suspect that they will not be covered in the same way elsewhere . David makes couple good points - but extent to which forcings different (or implementation) perhaps need addressing here. The basic agreement I mean is that the recent warming is generally unprecedented in these simulations. It will take time and input from the tropical ice core /coral people to do the regional stuff well . I think the glaciological stuff is a real problem - other than just showing recent glacial states (also covered elsewhere) - of course difficult to interpret any past records without modelling responses (as in borehole data), but this requires considerable space . My executive decision would be to ask Olga to try to write a couple of papragraphs on limits of interpretation for inferring precisely timed global temperature changes? What do others think? I only heaved Olga's stuff in at last moment rather than not include it - but of course it needs considerable shortening. The discussion of tree-ring stuff is problematic because it requires papers to be published eg direct criticism of Esper et al. We surely do not want to waste space HERE going into this esoteric topic? All points on seasonality , I agree with , but the explicit stuff on M+M re hockey stick - where is this? ie the bit about normalisation base affecting redness in reconstructions - sounds nonsense to me ? I have to consider the comments in detail but am happy for hard direction re space and focus. If concensus is no forcings and model results here fine with me - Peck and Eystein to rule Keith -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 758. 2005-01-06 13:15:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 6 Jan 2005 13:15:13 -0500 from: "Dennis, Kate" subject: Senator Inhofe's climate change speech to: Hi Keith, You may not remember me, but I took your Climate Change course last Spring. I'm now working for the Climate Center at the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington, DC. On Jan 4th, Senator Inhofe (a climate change skeptic) spoke to the US Senate and quoted you and Tim Osborn from a commentary on von Storch's 2004 paper in Science (I'm attaching the transcript of the speech so that you can take a look at the context...you are quoted on page 3-4.) I was wondering what your opinion was regarding the context of the quote? Am I not correct in thinking that although there is uncertainty regarding natural variability of climate over the past millenium that the warming viewed in both Mann's curve and your (and other member's of CRU) reconstructions still illustrates that warming over the past 150 years is unprecendented and a cause for concern? You and others have analysed the MWP and LIA and continue to conclude that the recent warming is unprecedented? What about verification by AOGCMs that illustrate reconstructions are most successfully modelled by GHG forcing and natural climate variability (solar and volcanic forcing)? If I remember correctly Stott et al wrote a good paper on this and also your volcanic reconstruction paper that was so lovingly referred to in the 2004 Climate Change exam! (I can't remember the exact references of the top of my head.) Anyway, I would be interested in your comments about Inhofe's speech? If you feel strongly about it I wonder if you might like to write a short rebuttal? Please let me know if you do as some Climate Center staff may be able to help in terms of visibility in Washington. Thanks, I hope all is well at UEA!! Kate Kate Dennis Climate Center Natural Resources Defense Council 1200 New York Ave. NW, Suite 400 Washington, DC 20005 E-mail: kdennis@nrdc.org Tel: (202) 513 6250 Ext. # 2250 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Inhofe_warming_speech1.doc" 2741. 2005-01-06 16:39:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 6 Jan 2005 16:39:48 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Fwd: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Section 6.3.2.1 to: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , trond.dokken@bjerknes.uib.no, "Ricardo Villalba" Keith and Ricardo - you have these covered, correcto (you've seen most/all before?)- use as appropriate and save any debates for after ZOD is my advice. But if you have time to debate before, feel free to do so. I'm sure David is up to the task. Hope things are going well. Will send input from Julie before you wake up, and also a note on sorting out glacier stuff. Thanks, more soon, peck X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 X-Sender: drind@4dmail.giss.nasa.gov Date: Thu, 6 Jan 2005 17:28:46 -0500 To: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu From: David Rind Subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Section 6.3.2.1 X-BeenThere: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 List-Id: List-Help: List-Post: List-Subscribe: , List-Archive: List-Unsubscribe: , Sender: wg1-ar4-ch06-bounces@joss.ucar.edu X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-Spam-Status: No, hits=-4.5 required=7.0 tests=BAYES_00, HTML_FONT_BIG, HTML_MESSAGE X-Spam-Level: Hi, these suggestions are primarily for Keith who is the lead, but it might be of general interest, because this is such an important (and big) part of Chapter 6. I tried to review it as if I were an outside reviewer; for what it's worth, here are some comments: Section 6.3.2.1 Figure 1 should be of the last 2000 years, with appropriate caveats, not just since 1860 (which will undoubtedly be in other chapters). pp. 8-18: The biggest problem with what appears here is in the handling of the greater variability found in some reconstructions, and the whole discussion of the 'hockey stick'. The tone is defensive, and worse, it both minimizes and avoids the problems. We should clearly say (e.g., page 12 middle paragraph) that there are substantial uncertainties that remain concerning the degree of variability - warming prior to 12K BP, and cooling during the LIA, due primarily to the use of paleo-indicators of uncertain applicability, and the lack of global (especially tropical) data. Attempting to avoid such statements will just cause more problems. In addition, some of the comments are probably wrong - the warm-season bias (p.12) should if anything produce less variability, since warm seasons (at least in GCMs) feature smaller climate changes than cold seasons. The discussion of uncertainties in tree ring reconstructions should be direct, not referred to other references - it's important for this document. How the long-term growth is factored in/out should be mentioned as a prime problem. The lack of tropical data - just a few corals prior to 1700 - has got to be discussed. The primary criticism of McIntyre and McKitrick, which has gotten a lot of play on the Internet, is that Mann et al. transformed each tree ring prior to calculating PCs by subtracting the 1902-1980 mean, rather than using the length of the full time series (e.g., 1400-1980), as is generally done. M&M claim that when they used that procedure with a red noise spectrum, it always resulted in a 'hockey stick'. Is this true? If so, it constitutes a devastating criticism of the approach; if not, it should be refuted. While IPCC cannot be expected to respond to every criticism a priori, this one has gotten such publicity it would be foolhardy to avoid it. In addition, there are other valid criticisms to the PC approach. Assuming that the PC structure stays the same was acknowledged in the Mann et al paper as somewhat risky, given the possibility of altered climate forcing (e.g., solar). Attempting to reconstruct tropical temperatures using high latitude PCs assumes that the PCs are influenced only by global scale processes. In a paper we now have in review in JGR, and in other papers already published, it is shown that high latitude climate changes can directly affect the local expression of the modes of variability (NAO in particular). So attempting to fill in data at other locations from PCs that could have local influences may not work well; at the least, it has large uncertainties associated with it. The section from p.18-20 - simulations of temperature change over the last millennium , including regional expressions - should not be in this section. It is covered in the modeling section (several different times), and will undoubtedly be in other chapters as well. And the first paragraph on p. 19 is not right - only by using different forcings have models been able to get similar responses (which does not constitute good agreement). The discussion in the first paragraph of p. 20 is not right - the dynamic response is almost entirely in winter, which would not have affected the 'warm season bias' paleoreconstructions used to prove it. It also conflicts with ocean data (Gerard Bond, personal communication). Anyway, it's part of the section that should be dropped. pp. 20-28: The glacial variations should be summarized in a coherent global picture. Variations as a function of time should be noted - not just lumped together between 1400 and 1850 - for example, it should be noted where glaciers advanced during the 17th century and retreated during the 19th century, for that is important in understanding possible causes for the Little Ice Age (as well as the validity of the 'hockey stick'). The discussion on the bottom of p.25-27 as to the causes of the variations is inappropriate and should be dropped - note if solar forcing is suspect, every paragraph that relates observed changes to solar forcing will be equally suspect (e.g., see also p. 44, first paragraph). Bottom of p. 27: Greene et al. (GRL, 26, 1909-1912, 1999) did an analysis of 52 glaciated areas from 30-60N and found that the highest correlation between their ELA variations in the last 40 years was with summer season freezing height and winter season precip. The warm season freezing height was by far more important. Therefore, the relationship of glacier variations to NAO changes (which are important only in winter), as discussed in this paragraph, while perhaps valid for a period of time in southern Norway, is not generally applicable. p. 36: 6 ppm corresponds to a temperature response of 0.3 to 0.6°K using the IPCC sensitivity range. p. 36, last paragraph: one could equally well conclude that the reconstructions are showing temperature changes that are too small. This is the essence of the problem with the last 2000 years: if the reconstructions are right, either there was no solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is very low. If the real world had more variability, either there was solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is high (as is internal variability). I've tried to say this in the climate sensitivity sub-chapter (5.8). -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3745. 2005-01-06 16:47:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jan 6 16:47:01 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Review Request: J. Climate LETTER to: Journal of Climate Dear Catherine, though I'd like to undertake this review, I simply can't do it in the next few weeks, so I'll have to decline. As regards alternative reviewers, I'd suggest: Dr. Eduardo Zorita, eduardo.zorita@gkss.de GKSS Research Centre, Germany or Dr. Juerg Luterbacher, juerg@giub.unibe.ch University of Bern, Switzerland Regards Tim At 19:26 03/01/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr. Osborn, Paul Kushner, an Editor of Journal of Climate, has suggested you as a possible reviewer for a submitted LETTER entitled "Robustness of spatial climate reconstructions" (JCL-5520) by Eugene R. Wahl and Caspar M. Ammann. The Letters section provides rapid and high-profile publication of brief communications on topics of great interest to the climate research community. Reviewers are asked to rate letters on the basis of their importance, timeliness, and level of interest to the climate research community, and also to provide additional comments and suggestions regarding the technical merit, quality of the writing and figures, and all the usual criteria associated with the peer review process. If you can do this review, we ask that you complete your review this manuscript within ONE WEEK and I will send you a link to allow you to download the manuscript. If you are unable to complete the review within one week, please do not accept the review. In this case, we would greatly appreciate it if you could suggest other possible reviewers and provide their email addresses. Thank you. Sincerely, Catherine Cassidy Editorial Assistant, Journal of Climate Paul Kushner, Editor 4404. 2005-01-06 17:02:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Olga Solomina" , Eystein Jansen , trond.dokken@bjerknes.uib.no, Valerie Masson-Delmotte , "Ricardo Villalba" date: Thu, 6 Jan 2005 17:02:37 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: Keith Briffa Thanks Keith. Eystein and I just discussed this all again and we have a proposed plan for Olga. Olga (and others - please note!) - we're running into serious space problems and are making lots of hard cuts all over the chapter. We'd therefore suggest reducing the glacier discussion in sections 6.3.2.1 and 6.3.2.2 to a mimimum, and a level required by those sections (Keith and Valerie decide for now). We then want to take out and condense that information that is focused on one very important aspect of the glacier story. We propose to put this in a new cross-cutting box (label it Box 6.1: Long-term perspective on recent global glacier retreat). Given that chapter 4 will have everything regarding the recent (instrumental) record of glacier mass balance, and the fact that many readers will be thinking - "well glaciers melted in the past for purely natural reasons, didn't they," we want to highlight with just a couple (2-3 paragraphs and a compelling figure) that we can put the current near-global glacier retreat into a long-term perspective (the figure should show long records from many sites, some going back well into the Holocene - can we do that?) , and that we can explain why (e.g., due to orbital forcing) the glaciers melted in the past. We can also (can we?) show that the current globally synchronous retreat cannot be explained by the same natural forcing. The current retreat must therefore be due to some other cause (e.g., human driven global warming). That's my take, but the data/records must speak for themselves - we can't be biased in any way. Of course, we need a brief intro that says why the issue is important, and how glaciers respond to climate. David Rind provided this ref, but we know there are others: : Greene et al. (GRL, 26, 1909-1912, 1999) did an analysis of 52 glaciated areas from 30-60N and found that the highest correlation between their ELA variations in the last 40 years was with summer season freezing height and winter season precip. The warm season freezing height was by far more important. Olga - does this make sense, and can you take charge of this? We think we can get Lonnie Thompson and Ellen Mosley Thompson to help with tropical, and Atle Nesje to help with high-latitude. Given the importance of this issue, they should at least help (review/edit), but if we don't hear from you, we'll ask them to try for the first draft - time is very short, and they can be CAs. We worry you might not be on-line right now, but your already contributed prose can serve as a good start. We don't need a fig unless we can generate a good one. But it would be very nice! What do you think? Please let us know what you think (Olga especially, but we want to make sure that Keith and Valerie are ok with this - it will give you more room, although some of the space will still come out of your sections). Thanks, Peck and Eystein. Olga am sending this to get you in this loop re the discussion for slimming down the 2000 year section Basically , IN THIS BIT - the decision is to reduce the glacier evidence to a very much smaller piece , coached in the sense of how the glacier evidence is problematic for interpreting precise and quantitative indications of the extent of regional or Hemispheric Warmth (and even cold) - issues of translating tongue position or volume into specific temperature and precipitation forcing . Hence , I am having to remove the stuff you sent and am asking if you could consider trying to write a brief section dealing with the issues I raise ? I also attach some initial comments by David Rind (on the full first draft of the chapter sent round by Eystein) for consideration Sorry about this - but presumable (as you suggested earlier) some of this can go in the 10K bit. You can shout at me (and the others) later! cheers Keith Hi Keith - Happy new year. Hopefully, you had a good holiday. I've had a chance to read your section and hopefully you've had a chance to read what I sent just before the holidays. The purpose of this email is to help get a focus on the finish line (just a few days away) and to get a dialog going that will hopefully help you finish section 6.3.2.1. If you'd like to talk on the phone, just let me know. Please see my email from right before xmas holidays for original comments. Plus, here are the new ones from both me and David Rind: 0) as leader of this KEY section, we need you to take the lead integrating everything you think should be integrated, editing and boiling it down to just ca 4 pages of final text (e.g., 8 pages of typed text plus figs). This means cutting some material (e.g., forcings and simulations) and perhaps moving glacier record (MUCH boiled down) to a box. See below. 00) note that we can also perhaps move some of the details to the appendix (although we won't write this until after the current ZOD crunch, save an outline of what you might want in there). 1) I like your figure ideas, with the comments: 1a) I don't think you need figure 1d - the SH recons are sketchy since not much data, and it might be better to just discuss in a sentence or three. Any space saved is good too. Not sure about your proposed 1e - have to see it, I guess. 1b) Figure 2 looks interesting. I'm trying to get the latest Arctic recon from Konrad Hughen - it is quite robust and a significant multi-proxy update. Should be published in time, though not sure thing since he's still hot on including his (our) AO recon which is more sketchy 1c) I think we can save space and improve organization if we DO NOT include Fig 3. However, this is open for debate - see David's comments below. 2) I agree with David's comments in general - so see them below. The prickly issue is where to put the forcings and simulated changes. I am close to having the prose from the radiation chapter, including the latest Lean and Co's view on solar - this will make many of the existing simulations involving inferred past solar forcing suspect (I will send in a day or so I hope). This means that we might be best saving space and downplaying this work some. I'm not sure, but wanted to debate it with you. Also, Chap 9 will have simulations in spades, so we can save space by letting them do it. Also, as David points out, we can focus on it elsewhere in our chapter more concisely - leaving you to focus on the VERY important obs record of temp and other changes. Can you tell, I'm still not 100% sure? I'll send another email to you and others about this in a bit. 3) Your section is too long and needs to be condensed. Thus, you need to think through what's most important and what's less so. For example, we need to figure out how to condense the glacier record of change. David thinks it should be a separate section that cuts across time scales (i.e., Holocene and last 2000 years). Perhaps we should try to make it into a box - 3 to 5 short paragraphs and a figure or two. Either way we have to really wack it. What do you think - you and I should be on the same page with Eystein before discussing w/ Olga perhaps. Or you can discuss with her - you're the lead on this section. 4) you're doing an impressive job! Lots to keep track of. Next, here is what David has offered. Take it all with a grain of salt, but I have read it and he has many good points. On the structural or any other points, I'm happy to discuss on the phone, or you can just debate with him and me on email. ******* From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** 6.3 Understanding Past Climate System Change (forcing and response) 6.3.1 Introduction (0.5 pages) 6.3.2 The Current Interglacial 6.3.2.1 Last 2000 years (4 pages) Figure 1 should be of the last 2000 years, with appropriate caveats, not just since 1860 (which will undoubtedly be in other chapters). pp. 8-18: The biggest problem with what appears here is in the handling of the greater variability found in some reconstructions, and the whole discussion of the 'hockey stick'. The tone is defensive, and worse, it both minimizes and avoids the problems. We should clearly say (e.g., page 12 middle paragraph) that there are substantial uncertainties that remain concerning the degree of variability - warming prior to 12K BP, and cooling during the LIA, due primarily to the use of paleo-indicators of uncertain applicability, and the lack of global (especially tropical) data. Attempting to avoid such statements will just cause more problems. In addition, some of the comments are probably wrong - the warm-season bias (p.12) should if anything produce less variability, since warm seasons (at least in GCMs) feature smaller climate changes than cold seasons. The discussion of uncertainties in tree ring reconstructions should be direct, not referred to other references - it's important for this document. How the long-term growth is factored in/out should be mentioned as a prime problem. The lack of tropical data - a few corals prior to 1700 - has got to be discussed. The primary criticism of McIntyre and McKitrick, which has gotten a lot of play on the Internet, is that Mann et al. transformed each tree ring prior to calculating PCs by subtracting the 1902-1980 mean, rather than using the length of the full time series (e.g., 1400-1980), as is generally done. M&M claim that when they used that procedure with a red noise spectrum, it always resulted in a 'hockey stick'. Is this true? If so, it constitutes a devastating criticism of the approach; if not, it should be refuted. While IPCC cannot be expected to respond to every criticism a priori, this one has gotten such publicity it would be foolhardy to avoid it. In addition, there are other valid criticisms to the PC approach. Assuming that the PC structure stays the same was acknowledged in the Mann et al paper as somewhat risky, given the possibility of altered climate forcing (e.g., solar). Attempting to reconstruct tropical temperatures using high latitude PCs assumes that the PCs are influenced only by global scale processes. In a paper we now have in review in JGR, and in other papers already published, it is shown that high latitude climate changes can directly affect the local expression of the modes of variability (NAO in particular). So attempting to fill in data at other locations from PCs that could have local influences may not work well; at the least, it has large uncertainties associated with it. The section from p.18-20 - simulations of temperature change over the last millennium , including regional expressions - should not be in this section. It is covered in the modeling section (several different times), and will undoubtedly be in other chapters as well. And the first paragraph on p. 19 is not right - only by using different forcings have models been able to get similar responses (which does not constitute good agreement). The discussion in the first paragraph of p. 20 is not right - the dynamic response is almost entirely in winter, which would not have affected the 'warm season bias' paleoreconstructions used to prove it. It also conflicts with ocean data (Gerard Bond, personal communication). Anyway, it's part of the section that should be dropped. pp. 20-28: The glacial variations should be summarized in a coherentglobal picture. Variations as a function of time should be noted - not just lumped together between 1400 and 1850 - for example, it should be noted where glaciers advanced during the 17th century and retreated during the 19th century, for that is important in understanding possible causes for the Little Ice Age (as well as the validity of the 'hockey stick'). The discussion on the bottom of p.25-27 as to the causes of the variations is inappropriate and should be dropped - note if solar forcing is suspect, every paragraph that relates observed changes to solar forcing will be equally suspect (e.g., see also p. 44, first paragraph). Bottom of p. 27: Greene et al. (GRL, 26, 1909-1912, 1999) did an analysis of 52 glaciated areas from 30-60N and found that the highest correlation between their ELA variations in the last 40 years was with summer season freezing height and winter season precip. The warm season freezing height was by far more important. Therefore, the relationship of glacier variations to NAO changes (which are important only in winter), as discussed in this paragraph, while perhaps valid for a period of time in southern Norway, is not generally applicable. p. 34-36 on forcings: note that this is redundant to what is discussed in several later sections (e.g., 6.5.2); and other chapters), and that is true of forcing in general for the whole of section 6.2. I would strongly suggest dropping forcing from section 6.3.2.1, at least, and perhaps giving it its own number, or referring to othersubsections for it. It has a different flavor from the responses, and the section is already very big. Forcing does need to be discussed in the paleoclimate chapter, for reasons of climate sensitivity and explaining observations, but that is what Chapter 6.5 is about. (In summary - 6.3.2.1 already is taking on one controversy - paleotemperatures, which is needs to do better, It should not have to deal with the forcing problems as well, and especially not in an off-handed way.) Specific comments: p. 36: 6 ppm corresponds to a temperature response of 0.3 to 0.6°K using the IPCC sensitivity range. p. 36, last paragraph: one could equally well conclude that the reconstructions are showing temperature changes that are too small. This is the essence of the problem with the last 2000 years: if the reconstructions are right, either there was no solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is very low. If the real world had more variability, either there was solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is high (as is internal variability). I've tried to say this in the climate sensitivity sub-chapter. pp. 37-41: obviously a lot of overlap, but it shouldn't be hard to combine these. p. 39, first paragraph: but can the models fully explain what is thought to have happened? Quantification is important here, because many of the same climate/veg models are being used to assess future changes in vegetation. p. 42 - first full paragraph: what are the implications of the methane drop without a CO2 drop? p. 43, middle paragraph: obviously should mention solar-orbital forcing in this paragraph. p. 44, first paragraph: again, assuming a solar forcing p. 45, first paragraph: overlap with pp. 20-28. Second paragraph: overlap with p.39, last full paragraph p. 52 - repeat of p. 43. ******* END From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** X-Sender: jto@jto.inbox.email.arizona.edu Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 12:24:47 -0700 To: Keith Briffa From: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data Cc: Eystein Jansen , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , "Ricardo Villalba" X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Hi Keith and Co - I think David likes a good debates, so the main thing is to consider his comments and respond appropriately. Although the first priority has to be on the ZOD text and display items, maybe you can go back over his comments AFTER the looming deadline and further discuss things with David and others. For now, just work away. The biggest issue is how to handle forcing and simulations - i.e., where to put different pieces in the chapter. Eystein and I will help the team work through this. More soon, but for now just proceed as you have been proceeding. There is real merit to the concept that your section is about how climate varied over the last 2ka, and what caused these variations. The flip side is that we need to get a clear vision of how this differs from what goes into the other sections. Eystein and I will work more on this asap. Your plan re: glaciers is good. That's a tough one, but it has to be boiled WAY down. Moreover, my gut is to focus on the extent to which these complicated natural archives (e.g., complicated by ppt change) support or do not support the other proxy evidence/conclusions. This is why I was thinking we might think about a box, and to include the Lonnie perspective in it - e.g., glaciers are now melting everywhere (almost - we know why they are not in those places) in a manner unprecedented in the last xxxx years. Make sense? See what Olga says, and if needbe, I can help focus that stuff more. Thanks! Peck Hi Peck (et al) I am considering comments (including David's) re last 2000 years - some are valid = some are not . Will try to chop out bits but we need this consensus re the forcing and responses bit - I am for keeping the forcings in as much as they relate to the specific model runs done - and results for last 1000 years as I suspect that they will not be covered in the same way elsewhere . David makes couple good points - but extent to which forcings different (or implementation) perhaps need addressing here. The basic agreement I mean is that the recent warming is generally unprecedented in these simulations. It will take time and input from the tropical ice core /coral people to do the regional stuff well . I think the glaciological stuff is a real problem - other than just showing recent glacial states (also covered elsewhere) - of course difficult to interpret any past records without modelling responses (as in borehole data), but this requires considerable space . My executive decision would be to ask Olga to try to write a couple of papragraphs on limits of interpretation for inferring precisely timed global temperature changes? What do others think? I only heaved Olga's stuff in at last moment rather than not include it - but of course it needs considerable shortening. The discussion of tree-ring stuff is problematic because it requires papers to be published eg direct criticism of Esper et al. We surely do not want to waste space HERE going into this esoteric topic? All points on seasonality , I agree with , but the explicit stuff on M+M re hockey stick - where is this? ie the bit about normalisation base affecting redness in reconstructions - sounds nonsense to me ? I have to consider the comments in detail but am happy for hard direction re space and focus. If concensus is no forcings and model results here fine with me - Peck and Eystein to rule Keith -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3095. 2005-01-07 09:04:20 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 7 09:04:20 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Request for review to: "Tara Marathe" Dear Tara, Provided you don't want the review too quickly I should be able to do this. By quickly I mean before Jan 14. I'm a CLA on the observations chapter for IPCC and draft have to be in by Jan 14. I should have some time after that and be able to respond by Jan 21. Regards Phil At 21:53 06/01/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr. Jones: Hello, I am the Associate Editor of the Technical Comments section of *Science* and I am writing to ask if you would have the time and interest to review a technical comment and response for us. The comment is by M. Mann and S. Rutherford and deals with the paper "Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data" by H. von Storch et al., published on p. 679 of the 22 October 2004 issue of *Science*. The comment and response together are about 5 pages, double-spaced, in length. If you agree to review the comment, we ask that the review be completed within two weeks. Also, if you're unable to do the review, could I ask for your suggestions on alternative appropriate reviewers? Thanks for your time and help. Sincerely yours, Tara Marathe Tara S. Marathe Associate Online Editor, Science American Association for the Advancement of Science 1200 New York Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202-326-6508 Fax: 202-289-7562 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4118. 2005-01-07 12:31:40 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 12:31:40 -0800 from: "Wanda Lewis, Editorial Assistant" subject: Request to Review: JCL#5516 "Letter" to: January 7, 2005 Dear Dr. Briffa, Andrew Weaver, Editor of the Journal of Climate, has suggested you as a possible reviewer for a "Letter" entitled "Testing the Fidelity of 'Proxy'-Based Reconstructions of Past Climate", (JCL#5516) by, Michael E. Mann, Scott Rutherford, Eugene Wahl & Caspar Ammann. The purpose of the Letters section is to provide rapid and high-profile publication of brief communications on important and timely topics of great interest to the climate research community. Would you please let me know whether or not you will be able to do this review? If you accept, we ask that you complete your review within approximately one week from receipt of the Letter. The review process for Letters is handled electronically. Also, if you accept, please send me your complete postal and *courier* address, including telephone number and fax numbers for my files. Thanks so much. If you are unable to do this review, suggestions of other possible reviewers (and their e-mail addresses if possible) for this "Letter" would be appreciated. Wanda Lewis Editorial Assistant jclea@uvic.ca ============================================================================ Mailing Address: | Courier Address: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wanda Lewis, Editorial Assistant | Wanda Lewis, Editorial Assistant Journal of Climate | Journal of Climate School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria | at Ian Stewart Complex, Room 296b PO Box 3055 | University of Victoria Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6 | 3964 Gordon Head Road Canada | Victoria, BC, V8N 3X3, Canada ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- email: jclea@uvic.ca | Tel: (250) 472-4006 http://climate.uvic.ca | Fax: (250) 472-4004 ============================================================================ 4821. 2005-01-07 14:51:53 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen , Eigil Kaas date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 14:51:53 +0100 from: Martin Stendel subject: [Fwd: Mike Mann's claims] to: Hans von Storch , Eduardo Zorita , Keith Briffa Dear Hans, sorry for the late reply. I was involved with finishing up the final report of a recently finished EU project. The problem we are facing here is the reconstruction of climate variability on a multicentury time scale from a calibration period of about 100 years. There is therefore only limited possibility to directly compare the Mann reconstructions (for the "real world") and the von Storch results (in the "model world"). We do not know the transfer function which projects the proxies on the temperature (but we will likely underestimate the low frequency contribution for methodical reasons). However, the proxies themselves are not directly comparable as well, since in the "real world" they always are an integral over some climate variation, while the pseudoproxies in the model are not. Even if they were, we could not anticipate they have the same temporal behaviour. Furthermore, it is required that the climate in the calibration period does not differ significantly from that of the reconstruction period. Since there were no major volcanic eruptions in the 20th century (of the order of Tambora), it is not clear if this assumption holds, and it is thus likely that we underestimate these effects in any reconstruction. It is not clear to me whether this effect will be the same in the real world and in the model (and how large it is). The von Storch simulations and our results can as well not be compared with each other in a straightforward way. The model we have used in our simulation is similar but not identical to the model von Storch's group has used: * The atmospheric model is the same, however we have used a higher resolution (T42 compared to T30 in the GKSS simulation). A direct comparison of these two models has been conducted in the EU project GLIMPSE. While both models are able to depict the general temperature trends ("Little Ice Age", 20th century warming etc.), we find differences in detail. Most striking, our simulation shows a considerably more blocking situations over Western Europe during cold periods (LMM and early 19th century) than the T30 GKSS version in spite of a much smaller forcing (see below). * The ocean models are different. We have used the OPYC model, whereas the von Storch group used the HOPE model. * There are considerable differences in forcing between the two simulations. Apart from the often mentioned magnitude of the solar and volcanic forcing (our forcings being considerably smaller), our volcanic forcing has a latitudinal dependence and takes into account both short-wave and long-wave effects, although only in a simplified form. This results in comparably large negative forcings in our experiment for large extratropical eruptions. Furthermore, we take into account the contribution of vegetation changes. Although globally small, this effect cannot be neglected regionally. In the paper we have submitted to Climate Dynamics we show that our low frequency variability lies in between the Mann curve and the von Storch simulation. Given all the differences mentioned above, it is difficult to make a more quantitative assessment. An answer to the question would e.g. require to redo the von Storch analysis with our data and compare these two results. Hans, I already sent you a copy of the manuscript. There was, however, an error in Fig. 2. The Mann data Irene downloaded from the official WCD-P page were already smoothed, but this was not mentioned in the readme text (but has been corrected now). When she smoothed the data sets in Fig. 2, she therefore applied the smoothing twice. The effect is not very large and does not change our statements, but it is visible. I attach the corrected file. I don't have any other papers on this issue in the pipeline, and I am not reviewing the papers Keith mentioned. I agree that this issue urgently needs further clarification given the potential political implications. Please keep us updated! Best regards from Copenhagen, also on behalf of Eigil and Jens Martin -------- Original-Nachricht -------- Betreff: Mike Mann's claims Datum: Tue, 04 Jan 2005 19:34:24 +0100 Von: [1]Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de An: [2]mas@dmi.dk, [3]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk CC: [4]Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, [5]Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de Dear Martin, dear Keith, Mike Mann has made the following claims: "You should be aware that a comment is in press in "Science" casting significant doubt on the claims of Von Storch and Zorita, and another paper, in review, suggests that their conclusions are incorrect, . A 3rd paper, by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) group using the same model as von Storch, cannot reproduce the von Stroch results (they find much less variability than von Storch), suggesting that their were some serious problems with the von Storch simulation as well as with their analysis of the simulation results. I would suggest that you get in touch with these individuals (e.g. Keith Briffa: [6]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk or Martin Stendel: [7]mas@dmi.dk) for a more balanced view of the Von Storch claims." May I ask you to verify this statement and, if true, send us a copy of your papers? And, possibly, explain your "more balanced views"? All the best Hans Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502 GEESTHACHT, Germany ph: +49 4152 87 1831, fx: +49 4152 87 2832 mobile: + 49 171 212 2046 [8]http://w3g.gkss.de/staff/storch; [9]storch@gkss.de Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\T2m_timeseries_corrected.ps" 2248. 2005-01-07 15:19:52 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 7 15:19:52 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Paper just out to: "Ferrell, Wanda" , "Bamzai, Anjuli" Wanda and Anjuli, Glad you've sorted this. The annual report on the web will be there on Monday. I just want to give it a quiet read through this weekend. Cheers Phil At 14:18 07/01/2005, Ferrell, Wanda wrote: He's not an ARM PI; I fund him out of your B&R. We don't need to worry about the weekly. Wanda R. Ferrell, PhD ARM Program Manager 301-903-0043 -----Original Message----- From: Bamzai, Anjuli Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 8:37 AM To: 'Phil Jones'; Ferrell, Wanda Subject: RE: Paper just out Wanda, At the PI meeting, I asked all PIs to inform as they publish their work. Phil was present at the meeting, I'm aware he is an ARM PI, in addition I believe he's part of the CCPP International Detection and Attribution Group which is consortium of several climate scientists including Tom Crowley, Gabi Hegerl, Nate Gillett, and Phil. Not sure which program funded this paper he sent us. I sent off to BER mentioning both programs. We will rectify and credit just one if need be. Phil: Please let us know whether the JGR paper should credit ARM or IDAG support. Anjuli -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 3:15 AM To: Ferrell, Wanda; Bamzai, Anjuli Subject: RE: Paper just out Dear Wanda, Not sure if I've missed something. Anjuli made a point of asking all at the Seattle meeting to send pdfs of papers when they come out. I sent this and cc'd to you as well. I should have the short report on the wen site next week. Best Regards Phil At 03:30 07/01/2005, Ferrell, Wanda wrote: >At the moment I am still in charge of the project. > >Wanda R. Ferrell, PhD >ARM Program Manager >301-903-0043 > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] >Sent: Thursday, January 06, 2005 4:15 AM >To: Bamzai, Anjuli >Cc: Ferrell, Wanda >Subject: Paper just out > > Dear Anjuli, > Doing my report for the RIMS annual summary reminded me I should > send you this paper. It is what I talked about in Seattle and I've > just managed to get the pdf. > > Best Regards > Phil > > >Prof. Phil Jones >Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >University of East Anglia >Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >NR4 7TJ >UK >--------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4549. 2005-01-07 16:33:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 7 16:33:48 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: EA WG to: "C G Kilsby" Chris, Tried ringing, so here are some thoughts about the Work Plan. Before I forget chop the referees off the end of Craig's CV. Task 1. Emphasize the essential need for the WG to be able to be easily altered for a future climate. Could say here that this will be difficult for WGs that use alternating sequences of wet and dry spells (this is what Lars WG does for precip). Changes to these sequences are likely to occur in the future but change from the model is most uncertain - at least cf mean and SD changes. Need to word this wrt the way GNSRP works with RCM output changes - like mean, sd, skewness. Say that BETWIXT work has shown that changing precip is not enough to change other variables. Need to have change fields for these other variables as well - partic temp and vapour pressure. Change fields for the mean for HadRM3H/P are very small for sunshine and wind so we will likely omit these. This whole aspect of being able to be modified for the future is the key. A WG may be very good - if it can't be altered simply it is useless for the future. Our WG works on half months - get the annual cycle better. Task 2 A lot of this can be got from Jones and Salmon (1995). This has Strengths and Weaknesses. What are the EA requirements? Task 3 This is the meet of the work. All you need to say is that our WG will be fit to the daily gridded data for 1958-2002. We will need all the intercorrelations between variables. We then apply these to you generated precip series for each box. I'm assuming that your GNSRP will maintain the basic stats and the dry/wet spell lengths. State upfront that our implicit assumption is that the relationships (as correlations) between precip and the other variables will not change in the future. We were going to investigate this in BETWIXT but never got around to it. Could say we can test this ! The way to do this is to fit our WG to the RCM data for a few boxes for the present climate and separately for the future - then compare the correlations. We did this for SE England in another project for HadCM3 and there was little difference. Result should show that the RCM doesn't change these inter-relationships in the future cf the present, therefore there is no need to consider this. It doesn't matter if the model is wrong cf reality. If the model doesn't change there is no way of altering reality. Task 4 A lot of Figures and/or Tables of means, sds, skewness. We could also do this for some extremes a la BETWIXT. For BEWTIXT this got out of control as you had to have 100 simulations for each site to get reliable stats for anything other than the mean. So need to be careful we don't promise too much here. Remember there are 1000's of grid boxes. Maybe a simple graphical output showing a few things. I'd prefer not to go into extremes unless there is a robust one we can show for rainfall - 5 day max total in a year ? Something that isn't too extreme so we don't need to many simulations. Task 5 is simple Task 6 Should be simple My home number is still 01953 605643. If we're out answerphone will be on. Cheers Phil Chris, Rushed through this a little, but this will give you something to go on. I have to get through the whole of Ch 3 of IPCC report and submit by early next week, so will spend all weekend on this - breaking just to hear that Rochdale beat a Charlton second XI that Curbishley will put out ! Once you get this give me a ring or I'll try you in about an hour or so. Attached CVs for me and Craig Wallace (the person we'll put forward here). Clare is in Cuba - she gets back this weekend. I'll send her an email for a CV and to discuss this briefly on Monday. Our Admin person isn't here so I've made up some numbers. Doesn't seem to get anywhere near 52K total so we need to discuss this. Urgent: I put most of Craig's time down for Task 3/4 I don't have anything about LARS WG. Maybe a sentence or two could go in to say something like - ours is much easier to perturb? Others 50-50 OK I guess we will need to beef up the days accordingly but I reckon the 6 for Clare and me is fair - it's realistic. So add to Craig's. One submission from you with a sub contract to UEA. I think this will make it easier here as I don't need to get it signed off - a hope anyway. Cheers Phil At 11:36 07/01/2005, you wrote: Phil Find attached: - rough draft of proposal - rough/blank work sheet of costs etc Urgent points to deal with: #proposal: need input everywhere, especially - need to flesh out methodology - have indicated where - integration with other EA stuff - weak on this (DST etc) - skills - CVs (who do you have in mind) - work plan (not started this yet - ideas welcome/needed!) - am keen to put in comparison with LARS - do you have anything here to make us look good? # costs - need your day rates and a stab at people, no of days in each task etc. - guess we need to aim for £52-£55K or so. Will use the spreadsheet to "optimise" this, but need some ideas from you first. -I guess we split the costs 50:50? - I see us doing: - overall direction: rainfall model: (most of) software implementation, GIS/graphical stuff ? You doing: - review of WGs, climate scenarios, WG met variables, PET Sound OK? # contracts etc: how do we do this - one submission, UNEW lead, but we have choice of: - consortium or - we contract, you sub-contract? Haven't spoken with our finance people about this,the head honcho is away until Monday. Will need to wrap up Tues am, courier Tues pm. Need finances sorting Monday though to get signatures here for Tues. Chris Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3415. 2005-01-07 17:23:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , trond.dokken@bjerknes.uib.no, Valerie Masson-Delmotte , r.ramesh@prl.ernet.in, Keith Briffa date: Fri, 7 Jan 2005 17:23:47 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Holocene masterpiece to: ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar Hi Ricardo - ah, you lucky dog - fieldwork. Thanks for taking time out for the IPCC stuff, however. I was hoping to provide more today, but other LA's kept me hoping with constant email (all good, but time consuming). I will give more feedback soon. In the meantime, it would help if you did three things (in order of importance): 1) for section 6.5.4 (Modes of Variability - your lead): ** it would be good if you could see if Julie's new prose helps, and integrate it if it does. Keith is going to leave out variability changes, and in the end, I think Valerie might too (not decided). So this makes your section even more important. ** we'd like to ask if you could create Executive Summary type bullets for each of this section. See the TAR (e.g., chapter 2) for what I mean. The reason I ask is that we're starting to work on the Exec Summ, but also that space limits on our chapter mean that we can only afford to focus section text/figs on the most important policy relevant paleoscience. By generating the bullets, you will help us, but also make it clear what points your sections support. This might help in the editing, since material that doesn't support these points can be left out. 2) please read and edit/strengthen what Valerie just sent out a few minutes ago - the next version of 6.3.2.2. Last 10,000 years. Please use track changes, and send to her, me and Eystein 3) see if you can help Ramesh (and Dan, although we haven't heard from Dan - hope he wasn't impacted by the Tsunami...) with section 6.5.9. Ramesh agreed to help take over the lead, but I haven't heard from him since then (early in the week). Pls contact him with offer to help if you have time - we need a southern hem perspective!! We'll need your editing help with Keith's material too - but that won't be available until Monday or so. Will you be able to work next week? Limited time, or unlimited? Many Thanks! Peck PS - when we're all done in 2007, we should have a LA party in Chile! Enjoy. >Dear Peck, > >Thanks for your messages. Presently, I am doing fielwork with Antonio Lara >in Valdivia, Chile. I will take a break in my fieldwork during this >weekend to interact with you and Eystein. Cheers, >ricardo > >> the following is also attached as a word file... >> >> Hi Valerie and Ricardo - Here is some detailed feedback that Eystein >> and I developed for you to use in creating the next draft of section >> 6.3.2.2. Valerie, as section lead, should do this, but hopefully >> Ricardo can help editing/improving. As noted below, you should make >> decision about what previously received input to use or not to use. >> Fortunat and Dick both provide some useful still (especially F), but >> you should only use what fits and omit the rest (remember or keep >> notes why you make the choices you did, so you can discuss with them >> later if needbe). >> >> This is a big job, but you have most of the pieces. The section has >> many important policy-relevant points to make, so focus on them (you >> can add/delete from the list below, but be ready to argue if you >> delete ;) - ). >> >> Feel free to ask questions, etc. I will try to call tomorrow morning >> (my time, but with the baby, things are unpredictable - best give me >> your home phone number if I don't get you in the office). Feel free >> to contact us both by email or phone too. >> >> Thanks! Peck and Eystein >> >> January 6, 2005 >> Holocene Section 6.3.2.2 >> Feeback from CLAs >> >> A. Preamble/Introduction - >> >> 1) off to good start - lots of useful prose in hand. One reason for >> the delay is that this section, thanks to Valerie, had one of best >> first draft starts >> 2) Need to use available input where appropriate (and only where >> appropriate) - e.g., from Dick, Fortunat, Eystein (edits in Dec 30 >> doc) and David (see his comments sent separately from Eystein's Dec >> 30 compiled chapter document >> 3) sections should be 5 pages single spaced long (2.5 in IPCC pages) > > 4) can have 2-3 figures - like your ideas and what to see more >> 5) info related to glaciers is to be mostly in the new Box 6.1 (see >> previous email) >> 6) paleoclimates of the post-glacial Holocene (e.g., 8ka to present) >> are the best studied and understood of any warm interglacial earth >> period. This stems from wide applicability of radiocarbon and U/Th >> radiometric age models, as well as those developed using annual >> layers, bands and rings. After ca. 8ka, Holocene climate change was >> dominated by orbital forcing. Before ca. 8ka., glacial boundary >> conditions, particularly glacial meltwater also played a significant >> role. Mention (with citations to keep folks happy) the 8.2 event for >> example. Primary focus is thus on the post-glacial Holocene. Need to >> stress this in intro even more clearly. >> >> B. Section focus - need to stick to making policy relevant points. >> These include, but are not limited to the following. If you think >> there are additional points, please run them by CLAs before spending >> too much time on them. PLEASE alter the points to be accurate and >> unbiased - we think we're close, but you're the lead on this section. >> Also, you have to demonstrate that each point is supported by the >> evidence. >> >> 1. there were significant changes in climate forcing during the Holocene. >> >> 1a. trace-gas: these changes, including shifts of CO2 and CH4, are >> well known and understood to be due toŠ (use Fortunat text; deal with >> Ruddiman's hypothesis that changes were due to humans) - the point is >> that there are no known natural processes that altered atm trace gas >> concentrations in the Holocene that could be causing the much more >> significant post-industrial increases. >> >> 1b. the dominant forcing of Holocene change was orbital - explain > > briefly as you do >> >> 1c. there is evidence (not necessarily clear?) that both volcanic and >> solar forcing caused some perturbations of climates, that while >> significant regionally and over short periods of time, were smaller >> than those now taking place. There is no evidence that these >> mechanisms could be generating all or most of the change seen since >> the industrial revolution. Volc caused short term perturbations, and >> perhaps periods of increase volc activity caused longer periods of >> net cooling (any really convincing papers? Don't know of any). >> Evidence for solar exists (as you say), but it is not strong - or at >> least evidence is not strong that the sun can do that much on a >> global basis. Need to discuss Bond hypoth here (with Eystein >> text/comments). >> >> 1d. there is also some evidence (crappy, since some of the best - >> e.g., Bond - are only seen to be present in only a few select locals, >> rather than clear global signals) that there are natural >> multi-decadal to millennial-scale quasi-periodic "modes" (cycle is >> not the term to use!) of variability. Some, such as the Bond "mode" >> have been cited as contributing to the Little Ice Age and subsequent >> post-industrial warming. Evidence for this is weak at best, and there >> is no evidence that any natural cycle could be driving a significant >> part of the post-industrial warming. Need to carefully make this case >> if possible - but be careful to avoid bias - case has to be clear. >> >> 2. the evidence is clear (briefly summarize, lots of citations) that >> significant changes in climate forcing in the Holocene caused >> significant changes in climate response - including changes in >> temperature, precipitation (including periods of megadrought?), >> changes in monsoon strength ENSO (I will send prose from Julie Cole), >> ice sheet melting and growth (Dick's prose), sea level rise/fall >> (Dick again - note only need deal with sea level in highly focused >> manner in this section - bulk will go in to later sea level section) >> etc. (list major ones, include paleo oceanographic changes. The >> record makes it clear that the climate system, from global scale >> temperature and processes, down to local scale phenomenon, is quite >> sensitive to changes in climate forcing. >> >> 3. the evidence is clear (briefly summarize, lots of citations) that > > there are places and periods in the Holocene when temperature was >> likely as warm as parts of the 20th century (say what parts - >> late??), but Holocene warm periods were not global in nature like >> post-industrial warmth, nor were they characterized by warmer >> temperatures in all seasons. Plus, we have a good understanding of >> where, when and WHY these earlier warm anomalies existed. In addition >> to backing this all up with evidence, we like your: >> >> 3a. Figure idea - the one following the Bradley et al MWP approach - >> you need to draft such a figure fast, but we can finalize, add more >> data, etc. after ZOD - need a good demonstration of concept for the >> ZOD, however. >> >> 3b. dealing with the inappropriateness of terms like Holocene Thermal >> Maximum or Optimum or Altithermal or Hypsithermal (although, you >> probably have to point out that there was no synchronous Neoglacial >> either). >> >> 4. the evidence is clear (briefly summarize, lots of citations) that >> certain climate system feedbacks were positive and strong in >> amplifying the externally (e.g., orbitally) forced change. Thinking >> primarily biospheric (see Fortunat prose and oceanographic (see >> Sahel/Sahara papers - for good discussion (??) see also Overpeck et >> al in PAGES synthesis volumn - you can cite/ steal from there easily. >> Note that we are only focused on climate change (and feedbacks), but >> not impacts of climate change - can avoid saying much about veg >> change this way. >> >> 5. the evidence is clear (briefly summarize, lots of citations) that >> gradual changes in climate forcing (e.g., orbital) can drive the >> climate system to change abruptly - for the SW Asian monsoon, see >> Morrill et al - Holocene. Neoglaciation shifts, Africa ppt shifts - > > you have lots of good stuff here, but need focus. >> >> -- >> Jonathan T. Overpeck >> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> Professor, Department of Geosciences >> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >> Mail and Fedex Address: >> >> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >> University of Arizona >> Tucson, AZ 85721 >> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 1607. 2005-01-07 21:08:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: stefan@pik-potsdam.de date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 21:08:55 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Latest draft 6.2.3 to: IPCC Chapter 6 Hi friends, I've had another go at section 6.2.3, by looking at the three different drafts we had so far. Those three drafts did not actually seem to disagree much in substance but more in editorial style, each trying to explain more or less the same thing a bit differently. I started from my draft here, this being the only one that stuck to the agreed word limit (but after including some of your stuff, am slightly over now as well). I've closely followed the three points we agreed in Trieste what this section should say, sticking to the same order : Why models are important to understanding past climate etc., Why paleo is important to understanding realism of models Different types of models and uses - refer to other chapters where possible. I went through your other drafts piece by piece to check whether they made any important points that my draft missed. David and Dick, I would have liked to include all your examples (Holocene warm period, mid-Pliocene, greening of Sahara, thermohaline circulation etc.) but the word limit is really against this, and it is a methods section rather than room many application examples. There are points exclusive to my draft which I wouldn't like to drop: that models tend to be developed and tuned with present climate data, so testing them on independent data from other climates is important; that a good present climate is no test for correct CO2 sensitivity (think of an error in CO2 radiative effect calculation, which could still give good present climate but mess up CO2 response); that paleoclimate models may use additional components (continental ice sheets, isotopes); that mechanistic quantitative understanding is crucial since there are no analogues for the future in the past; that we use the same models for past, present and future climate (many science journos I talk to believe we have one model doing ice age, another model doing present, etc., so this needs to be mentioned in the methods bit). If the fact that your draft did leave those out means that you object to them, let me know. If anyone thinks anything is unclear or any substance is missing that should be in there, let me know. Preferably by returning this draft with the edits you'd like to see (not increasing the length...). Otherwise I've chosen the way of presenting things that seemed to me to be the most clear and useful to outside people. I don't feel this section needs a figure (but if someone has a good one, by all means suggest it). Referencing was a bit hard to decide - these are fairly general introductory comments on paleoclimate modeling, and adding a zillion refs is probably not called for. I've now gone for citing some coupled model examples, where it seemed warranted; help and additions welcome. (Nb - EndNote file attached, it has all my Chap6 refs, also for the other sections.) Sorry for getting upset by the drafts rolling in that did not follow on from what we already had for the chapter - I've been working flat out on many things this week despite a heavy cold, so I don't react so enthusiastically if things are not moving smoothly. Cheers, Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf [1]www.ozean-klima.de [2]www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\6.2.3_ZOD.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Chapter6_Rahmstorf1.enl" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1417. 2005-01-07 22:13:05 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 07 Jan 2005 22:13:05 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] comments to 6.3.2.1 (mainly for Keith) to: IPCC Chapter 6 Keith, some comments added in the text for the past millennium, plus I wrote some extra sentences on the implications of the dispute (repeated below). Hope it is useful, Stefan Note that the major differences between the proxy reconstructions and between the model simulations for the past millennium occur for the cool periods in the 17^th-19^th Centuries; none of these reconstructions or models suggests that there was a warmer period than the late 20^th Century in the record. A larger amplitude of preindustrial natural climate variability does not imply a smaller anthropogenic contribution to 20^th Century warming (which is estimated from 20^th Century data, see Chapter XXX on attribution), nor does it imply a smaller sensitivity of climate to CO2, or a lesser projected warming for the future. -- Stefan Rahmstorf [1]www.ozean-klima.de [2]www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\6.3.2.1_comments_Stefan.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1845. 2005-01-08 19:03:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 8 Jan 2005 19:03:18 +0300 from: "Olga Solomina" subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: "Eystein Jansen" , "Jonathan Overpeck" , "Keith Briffa" , Valйrie Masson-Delmotte  Hello, everybody, I am sorry to be silent - just arrived (we have holydays until 10th of January). I think it is a good idea to put the glaciers in a separate box and link it closer to the "chryoshpere" chapter. They do not fit well to the high resolution last millennium pattern, indeed. I drew two pictures just for myself for the glacier variations of the last millennium and the Holocene. Please let me unpack and send it to you tomorrow - than we can discuss if we need this kind of struff. The problem is that there are VERY FEW good long records.... I would be happy to get help from Lonnie, Ellen and Atle (Atle sent me his recent papers). (I would aslo ask Hans Oerlemens to comments the models), but I think first of all we have to agree about the frame of this topic among ourselves. Cheers, olga ----- Original Message ----- From: [1]Jonathan Overpeck To: [2]Keith Briffa Cc: [3]Olga Solomina ; [4]Eystein Jansen ; [5]trond.dokken@bjerknes.uib.no ; [6]Valerie Masson-Delmotte ; [7]Ricardo Villalba Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 3:02 AM Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data Thanks Keith. Eystein and I just discussed this all again and we have a proposed plan for Olga. Olga (and others - please note!) - we're running into serious space problems and are making lots of hard cuts all over the chapter. We'd therefore suggest reducing the glacier discussion in sections 6.3.2.1 and 6.3.2.2 to a mimimum, and a level required by those sections (Keith and Valerie decide for now). We then want to take out and condense that information that is focused on one very important aspect of the glacier story. We propose to put this in a new cross-cutting box (label it Box 6.1: Long-term perspective on recent global glacier retreat). Given that chapter 4 will have everything regarding the recent (instrumental) record of glacier mass balance, and the fact that many readers will be thinking - "well glaciers melted in the past for purely natural reasons, didn't they," we want to highlight with just a couple (2-3 paragraphs and a compelling figure) that we can put the current near-global glacier retreat into a long-term perspective (the figure should show long records from many sites, some going back well into the Holocene - can we do that?) , and that we can explain why (e.g., due to orbital forcing) the glaciers melted in the past. We can also (can we?) show that the current globally synchronous retreat cannot be explained by the same natural forcing. The current retreat must therefore be due to some other cause (e.g., human driven global warming). That's my take, but the data/records must speak for themselves - we can't be biased in any way. Of course, we need a brief intro that says why the issue is important, and how glaciers respond to climate. David Rind provided this ref, but we know there are others: : Greene et al. (GRL, 26, 1909-1912, 1999) did an analysis of 52 glaciated areas from 30-60N and found that the highest correlation between their ELA variations in the last 40 years was with summer season freezing height and winter season precip. The warm season freezing height was by far more important. Olga - does this make sense, and can you take charge of this? We think we can get Lonnie Thompson and Ellen Mosley Thompson to help with tropical, and Atle Nesje to help with high-latitude. Given the importance of this issue, they should at least help (review/edit), but if we don't hear from you, we'll ask them to try for the first draft - time is very short, and they can be CAs. We worry you might not be on-line right now, but your already contributed prose can serve as a good start. We don't need a fig unless we can generate a good one. But it would be very nice! What do you think? Please let us know what you think (Olga especially, but we want to make sure that Keith and Valerie are ok with this - it will give you more room, although some of the space will still come out of your sections). Thanks, Peck and Eystein. Olga am sending this to get you in this loop re the discussion for slimming down the 2000 year section Basically , IN THIS BIT - the decision is to reduce the glacier evidence to a very much smaller piece , coached in the sense of how the glacier evidence is problematic for interpreting precise and quantitative indications of the extent of regional or Hemispheric Warmth (and even cold) - issues of translating tongue position or volume into specific temperature and precipitation forcing . Hence , I am having to remove the stuff you sent and am asking if you could consider trying to write a brief section dealing with the issues I raise ? I also attach some initial comments by David Rind (on the full first draft of the chapter sent round by Eystein) for consideration Sorry about this - but presumable (as you suggested earlier) some of this can go in the 10K bit. You can shout at me (and the others) later! cheers Keith Hi Keith - Happy new year. Hopefully, you had a good holiday. I've had a chance to read your section and hopefully you've had a chance to read what I sent just before the holidays. The purpose of this email is to help get a focus on the finish line (just a few days away) and to get a dialog going that will hopefully help you finish section 6.3.2.1. If you'd like to talk on the phone, just let me know. Please see my email from right before xmas holidays for original comments. Plus, here are the new ones from both me and David Rind: 0) as leader of this KEY section, we need you to take the lead integrating everything you think should be integrated, editing and boiling it down to just ca 4 pages of final text (e.g., 8 pages of typed text plus figs). This means cutting some material (e.g., forcings and simulations) and perhaps moving glacier record (MUCH boiled down) to a box. See below. 00) note that we can also perhaps move some of the details to the appendix (although we won't write this until after the current ZOD crunch, save an outline of what you might want in there). 1) I like your figure ideas, with the comments: 1a) I don't think you need figure 1d - the SH recons are sketchy since not much data, and it might be better to just discuss in a sentence or three. Any space saved is good too. Not sure about your proposed 1e - have to see it, I guess. 1b) Figure 2 looks interesting. I'm trying to get the latest Arctic recon from Konrad Hughen - it is quite robust and a significant multi-proxy update. Should be published in time, though not sure thing since he's still hot on including his (our) AO recon which is more sketchy 1c) I think we can save space and improve organization if we DO NOT include Fig 3. However, this is open for debate - see David's comments below. 2) I agree with David's comments in general - so see them below. The prickly issue is where to put the forcings and simulated changes. I am close to having the prose from the radiation chapter, including the latest Lean and Co's view on solar - this will make many of the existing simulations involving inferred past solar forcing suspect (I will send in a day or so I hope). This means that we might be best saving space and downplaying this work some. I'm not sure, but wanted to debate it with you. Also, Chap 9 will have simulations in spades, so we can save space by letting them do it. Also, as David points out, we can focus on it elsewhere in our chapter more concisely - leaving you to focus on the VERY important obs record of temp and other changes. Can you tell, I'm still not 100% sure? I'll send another email to you and others about this in a bit. 3) Your section is too long and needs to be condensed. Thus, you need to think through what's most important and what's less so. For example, we need to figure out how to condense the glacier record of change. David thinks it should be a separate section that cuts across time scales (i.e., Holocene and last 2000 years). Perhaps we should try to make it into a box - 3 to 5 short paragraphs and a figure or two. Either way we have to really wack it. What do you think - you and I should be on the same page with Eystein before discussing w/ Olga perhaps. Or you can discuss with her - you're the lead on this section. 4) you're doing an impressive job! Lots to keep track of. Next, here is what David has offered. Take it all with a grain of salt, but I have read it and he has many good points. On the structural or any other points, I'm happy to discuss on the phone, or you can just debate with him and me on email. ******* From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** 6.3 Understanding Past Climate System Change (forcing and response) 6.3.1 Introduction (0.5 pages) 6.3.2 The Current Interglacial 6.3.2.1 Last 2000 years (4 pages) Figure 1 should be of the last 2000 years, with appropriate caveats, not just since 1860 (which will undoubtedly be in other chapters). pp. 8-18: The biggest problem with what appears here is in the handling of the greater variability found in some reconstructions, and the whole discussion of the 'hockey stick'. The tone is defensive, and worse, it both minimizes and avoids the problems. We should clearly say (e.g., page 12 middle paragraph) that there are substantial uncertainties that remain concerning the degree of variability - warming prior to 12K BP, and cooling during the LIA, due primarily to the use of paleo-indicators of uncertain applicability, and the lack of global (especially tropical) data. Attempting to avoid such statements will just cause more problems. In addition, some of the comments are probably wrong - the warm-season bias (p.12) should if anything produce less variability, since warm seasons (at least in GCMs) feature smaller climate changes than cold seasons. The discussion of uncertainties in tree ring reconstructions should be direct, not referred to other references - it's important for this document. How the long-term growth is factored in/out should be mentioned as a prime problem. The lack of tropical data - a few corals prior to 1700 - has got to be discussed. The primary criticism of McIntyre and McKitrick, which has gotten a lot of play on the Internet, is that Mann et al. transformed each tree ring prior to calculating PCs by subtracting the 1902-1980 mean, rather than using the length of the full time series (e.g., 1400-1980), as is generally done. M&M claim that when they used that procedure with a red noise spectrum, it always resulted in a 'hockey stick'. Is this true? If so, it constitutes a devastating criticism of the approach; if not, it should be refuted. While IPCC cannot be expected to respond to every criticism a priori, this one has gotten such publicity it would be foolhardy to avoid it. In addition, there are other valid criticisms to the PC approach. Assuming that the PC structure stays the same was acknowledged in the Mann et al paper as somewhat risky, given the possibility of altered climate forcing (e.g., solar). Attempting to reconstruct tropical temperatures using high latitude PCs assumes that the PCs are influenced only by global scale processes. In a paper we now have in review in JGR, and in other papers already published, it is shown that high latitude climate changes can directly affect the local expression of the modes of variability (NAO in particular). So attempting to fill in data at other locations from PCs that could have local influences may not work well; at the least, it has large uncertainties associated with it. The section from p.18-20 - simulations of temperature change over the last millennium , including regional expressions - should not be in this section. It is covered in the modeling section (several different times), and will undoubtedly be in other chapters as well. And the first paragraph on p. 19 is not right - only by using different forcings have models been able to get similar responses (which does not constitute good agreement). The discussion in the first paragraph of p. 20 is not right - the dynamic response is almost entirely in winter, which would not have affected the 'warm season bias' paleoreconstructions used to prove it. It also conflicts with ocean data (Gerard Bond, personal communication). Anyway, it's part of the section that should be dropped. pp. 20-28: The glacial variations should be summarized in a coherentglobal picture. Variations as a function of time should be noted - not just lumped together between 1400 and 1850 - for example, it should be noted where glaciers advanced during the 17th century and retreated during the 19th century, for that is important in understanding possible causes for the Little Ice Age (as well as the validity of the 'hockey stick'). The discussion on the bottom of p.25-27 as to the causes of the variations is inappropriate and should be dropped - note if solar forcing is suspect, every paragraph that relates observed changes to solar forcing will be equally suspect (e.g., see also p. 44, first paragraph). Bottom of p. 27: Greene et al. (GRL, 26, 1909-1912, 1999) did an analysis of 52 glaciated areas from 30-60N and found that the highest correlation between their ELA variations in the last 40 years was with summer season freezing height and winter season precip. The warm season freezing height was by far more important. Therefore, the relationship of glacier variations to NAO changes (which are important only in winter), as discussed in this paragraph, while perhaps valid for a period of time in southern Norway, is not generally applicable. p. 34-36 on forcings: note that this is redundant to what is discussed in several later sections (e.g., 6.5.2); and other chapters), and that is true of forcing in general for the whole of section 6.2. I would strongly suggest dropping forcing from section 6.3.2.1, at least, and perhaps giving it its own number, or referring to othersubsections for it. It has a different flavor from the responses, and the section is already very big. Forcing does need to be discussed in the paleoclimate chapter, for reasons of climate sensitivity and explaining observations, but that is what Chapter 6.5 is about. (In summary - 6.3.2.1 already is taking on one controversy - paleotemperatures, which is needs to do better, It should not have to deal with the forcing problems as well, and especially not in an off-handed way.) Specific comments: p. 36: 6 ppm corresponds to a temperature response of 0.3 to 0.6°K using the IPCC sensitivity range. p. 36, last paragraph: one could equally well conclude that the reconstructions are showing temperature changes that are too small. This is the essence of the problem with the last 2000 years: if the reconstructions are right, either there was no solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is very low. If the real world had more variability, either there was solar forcing, or climate sensitivity is high (as is internal variability). I've tried to say this in the climate sensitivity sub-chapter. pp. 37-41: obviously a lot of overlap, but it shouldn't be hard to combine these. p. 39, first paragraph: but can the models fully explain what is thought to have happened? Quantification is important here, because many of the same climate/veg models are being used to assess future changes in vegetation. p. 42 - first full paragraph: what are the implications of the methane drop without a CO2 drop? p. 43, middle paragraph: obviously should mention solar-orbital forcing in this paragraph. p. 44, first paragraph: again, assuming a solar forcing p. 45, first paragraph: overlap with pp. 20-28. Second paragraph: overlap with p.39, last full paragraph p. 52 - repeat of p. 43. ******* END From David Rind 1/4/05 **************** X-Sender: jto@jto.inbox.email.arizona.edu Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2005 12:24:47 -0700 To: Keith Briffa From: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data Cc: Eystein Jansen , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Fortunat Joos , joos , "Ricardo Villalba" X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Hi Keith and Co - I think David likes a good debates, so the main thing is to consider his comments and respond appropriately. Although the first priority has to be on the ZOD text and display items, maybe you can go back over his comments AFTER the looming deadline and further discuss things with David and others. For now, just work away. The biggest issue is how to handle forcing and simulations - i.e., where to put different pieces in the chapter. Eystein and I will help the team work through this. More soon, but for now just proceed as you have been proceeding. There is real merit to the concept that your section is about how climate varied over the last 2ka, and what caused these variations. The flip side is that we need to get a clear vision of how this differs from what goes into the other sections. Eystein and I will work more on this asap. Your plan re: glaciers is good. That's a tough one, but it has to be boiled WAY down. Moreover, my gut is to focus on the extent to which these complicated natural archives (e.g., complicated by ppt change) support or do not support the other proxy evidence/conclusions. This is why I was thinking we might think about a box, and to include the Lonnie perspective in it - e.g., glaciers are now melting everywhere (almost - we know why they are not in those places) in a manner unprecedented in the last xxxx years. Make sense? See what Olga says, and if needbe, I can help focus that stuff more. Thanks! Peck Hi Peck (et al) I am considering comments (including David's) re last 2000 years - some are valid = some are not . Will try to chop out bits but we need this consensus re the forcing and responses bit - I am for keeping the forcings in as much as they relate to the specific model runs done - and results for last 1000 years as I suspect that they will not be covered in the same way elsewhere . David makes couple good points - but extent to which forcings different (or implementation) perhaps need addressing here. The basic agreement I mean is that the recent warming is generally unprecedented in these simulations. It will take time and input from the tropical ice core /coral people to do the regional stuff well . I think the glaciological stuff is a real problem - other than just showing recent glacial states (also covered elsewhere) - of course difficult to interpret any past records without modelling responses (as in borehole data), but this requires considerable space . My executive decision would be to ask Olga to try to write a couple of papragraphs on limits of interpretation for inferring precisely timed global temperature changes? What do others think? I only heaved Olga's stuff in at last moment rather than not include it - but of course it needs considerable shortening. The discussion of tree-ring stuff is problematic because it requires papers to be published eg direct criticism of Esper et al. We surely do not want to waste space HERE going into this esoteric topic? All points on seasonality , I agree with , but the explicit stuff on M+M re hockey stick - where is this? ie the bit about normalisation base affecting redness in reconstructions - sounds nonsense to me ? I have to consider the comments in detail but am happy for hard direction re space and focus. If concensus is no forcings and model results here fine with me - Peck and Eystein to rule Keith -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3912. 2005-01-08 19:04:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 8 Jan 2005 19:04:39 -0500 from: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu subject: Re: bit for ipcc to: Keith Briffa Hello Prof Briffa, I am in New Zealand now getting pissed on by rain. I return home on Jan 15 and will be only too pleased to assist you in your quixotic quest to lend some credibility to IPCC. Dr Cook Quoting Keith Briffa : > Ed been trying to find where you are. > I need you to write 1-2 sides a4 max (with refs) > re drought reconstructions - could lift some from Bradley book > but you are the horse as regards mouth - > I also need the numbers for plotting your various SH temp reconstructions > Any chance you can ring me at home 44 1953 851013 > Keith > > > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > ------------------------------------------------- This mail sent through IMP: http://horde.org/imp/ 833. 2005-01-10 08:38:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jan 10 08:38:50 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Request to Review: JCL#5516 "Letter" to: "Wanda Lewis, Editorial Assistant" just can not consider it now = teaching and IPCC stuff overwhelming - sorry Try Tom Wigley perhaps ? At 20:31 07/01/2005, you wrote: January 7, 2005 Dear Dr. Briffa, Andrew Weaver, Editor of the Journal of Climate, has suggested you as a possible reviewer for a "Letter" entitled "Testing the Fidelity of 'Proxy'-Based Reconstructions of Past Climate", (JCL#5516) by, Michael E. Mann, Scott Rutherford, Eugene Wahl & Caspar Ammann. The purpose of the Letters section is to provide rapid and high-profile publication of brief communications on important and timely topics of great interest to the climate research community. Would you please let me know whether or not you will be able to do this review? If you accept, we ask that you complete your review within approximately one week from receipt of the Letter. The review process for Letters is handled electronically. Also, if you accept, please send me your complete postal and *courier* address, including telephone number and fax numbers for my files. Thanks so much. If you are unable to do this review, suggestions of other possible reviewers (and their e-mail addresses if possible) for this "Letter" would be appreciated. Wanda Lewis Editorial Assistant jclea@uvic.ca ============================================================================ Mailing Address: | Courier Address: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wanda Lewis, Editorial Assistant | Wanda Lewis, Editorial Assistant Journal of Climate | Journal of Climate School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria | at Ian Stewart Complex, Room 296b PO Box 3055 | University of Victoria Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6 | 3964 Gordon Head Road Canada | Victoria, BC, V8N 3X3, Canada ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- email: jclea@uvic.ca | Tel: (250) 472-4006 [1]http://climate.uvic.ca | Fax: (250) 472-4004 ============================================================================ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2717. 2005-01-10 11:13:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, jto@u.arizona.edu, Valerie.Masson@cea.fr, ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 11:13:01 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Glaciers Ch 6 to: Jansen@geo.uib.no, olgasolomina@yandex.ru Hi Olga, Eystein and friends - this does sound good. Lonnie and Ellen are working fast on something, and they have asked a couple colleagues to help. This sounds like a nice complement to what you describe. We should see what they have by tomorrow I think, and then, hopefully have what we what. But, Eystein says it nice below - a cross-cutting box that would replace glacier-related text in both 6.3.2.1 (last 2000 years) and 6.3.2.2 (Holocene). That said, nothing is set in stone until we have general agreement. However, given the impact of the glacier story, putting it in a box should be powerful. thanks! Peck >Dear Olga, >My suggestion would be, and I believe this is echoed by Peck, is that the box >we produce comes in the overall Holocene sub-chapter, thus to avoid >repetition. The figure should mainly give syntheses of the glacier extent >variations through the Holocene, if possible, or a fraction of it if data only >exists e.g. for the last few millennia, for those regions where there is a >reliable data set. Then with text explaining what we think drove these >variations. I think it should be a box in Ch6, and could also include the >recent trends I have just talked with Atle and he is able to contribute >curves for Scandinavia and the Alps into a figure before the end of the week >(in a couple of days). He feels putting something together for North America >and perhaps New Zealand is feasible, but he cannot do this before the ZOD >deadline. Perhaps you might be able? If we get something for the tropics from >Lonnie and Ellen and what you have, I will be able to put this together in a >figure for the box via assistance here. We can in such a figure leave space >open for curves we anticipate including for the First Draft. >It might be a good idea to in this figure also include the recent, >instrumental evidence for the same regions, akin to what will be in Ch4, and >of course, in the next iteration come back to possible joint Ch4 and 6 figure. > >How does this sound? > >Cheers, >Eystein -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 5254. 2005-01-10 11:19:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 11:19:55 -0500 from: David Rind subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] comments to 6.3.2.1 (mainly for Keith) to: Stefan Rahmstorf Hi Stefan, Thanks for your comments. As to what I believe, I think that both the forcing and the response are too poorly known to make any definitive comment about climate sensitivity from this time period, although there have been plenty of people who have tried. That's basically the conclusion I drew in the climate sensitivity section, 5.8. (which includes a listing of the various references that have interpreted climate sensitivity by choosing to believe that they knew either the forcing or the response). With respect to the question at hand, your comment that the uncertainty for the LIA does not bear on the question of the "Medieval Warm Period": if it is the response which is at issue for the LIA, then it is equally at issue for the "MWP". As suggested above, I'm equally skeptical of the response as of the forcing, for it suggests a very low tropical sensitivity relative to that in the extratropics. There is now ample evidence in paleoclimate that what has started out as a view of small tropical response (LGM, Tertiary climates in general) is now being seen more and more as an underestimate of the tropical response. Granted, these are equilibrium climates, and it is possible the extratropical responses seen over the last 1000 years have more to do with atmospheric wave propagation changes (although what drove them?) than radiative forcing. Nevertheless, the scarcity of tropical data, and the questions associated with attempts to reconstruct them from extratropical variability, leave room for a lot of doubt on this score. David At 5:00 PM +0100 1/10/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: Hi David, well, yes and no. Well, yes and no. If the mismatch between suggested forcing, model sensitivity, and suggested response for the LIA suggests the forcing is overestimated (in particular the solar forcing), then it makes an earlier warm period less likely, with little implication for future warming. If it suggests climate sensitivity is really much lower, then it says nothing about the earlier warm period (could still have been driven by solar forcing), but suggests future warming is overestimated. Yes, IF. But it doesn't suggest that. Or do you think any of those results could possibly be interpreted as meaning that the climate sensitivity lies outside the 1.5-4.5 range? My argument is: the forcing for the past millennium is too uncertain for estimating climate sensitivity; this is why it has not been used for that, and this is why none of these studies affect our present estimates of climate sensitivity, which are based on other things rather than those proxy data. Many people don't know this; I even know one paleoclimatologist in Germany who thinks that our projections for the future are based on the proxy data for the last millennium, and if he doesn't believe in the Mann-curve it means he also doesn't have to believe in future warming. A case in point is the GKSS paper which appeared in Science, which produces far greater variability than all the proxy data, with a model that has a perfectly medium climate sensitivity somewhere near 3 ºC, while with nearly the same climate sensitivity, you can also be very close to the low-variability extreme, i.e. the Mann curve (e.g. the Bauer et al study). All just within forcing uncertainty. This is why all of this does not constrain or affect climate sensitivity in any way. (For this reason I think that the Osborn&Briffa statement in the Science commentary about the GKSS study is incorrect in stating that the larger variability implied if the Storch result is correct would imply a greater climate sensitivity - it just doesn't.) Stefan If however it implies the reconstructions are underestimating past climate changes, then it suggests the earlier warm period may well have been warmer than indicated (driven by variability, if nothing else) while suggesting future climate changes will be large. This is the essence of the problem. David -- Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4718. 2005-01-10 14:40:27 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, joos date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 14:40:27 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] comments to 6.3.2.1 (mainly for Keith) to: Eystein Jansen I agree; Keith should have the room, and section 6.5.8 should be compatible - has Fortunat followed the discussion between David/Stefan. Can you guys (David, Stefan, Keith, and Fortunat) ensure this? Thanks, Peck >Hi, >interesting discussion on an important topic. If space is the >limiting factor we may have to evaluate whether to cut back on less >central issues elswhere in the chapter. We will to a large extent be >judged on how we tackle the hockey stick, sensitivity, unprecedented >20th century warming isuues in view of palaeo, and if a slight >expansion is what it takes to do this properly, then I am >sympathetic to that (without having heard Peck on the issue). >Cheers, >Eystein > > > >At 16:32 +0000 10-01-05, Keith Briffa wrote: >>thanks David >>have to say that it is very difficult to say much in the minimal >>space - and we really need a page to discuss the problems in the >>reconstruction and and interpretation of the various forcings in >>different models - I am just going to put this down in an over >>abbreviated way and ask for specific corrections for you and Stefan >>et al. The detail perhaps depends on what the final Figure looks >>like and Tim is trying to put it together but lots of weird and >>interesting stuff / questions arise as we do - especially relating >>to past estimates of solar irradiance used by different people. At >>15:29 10/01/2005, David Rind wrote: >>>(I tried to send this earlier and it got hung up; apologies if it >>>eventually gets through and you get a second version.) >>> >>>Well, yes and no. If the mismatch between suggested forcing, model >>>sensitivity, and suggested response for the LIA suggests the >>>forcing is overestimated (in particular the solar forcing), then >>>it makes an earlier warm period less likely, with little >>>implication for future warming. If it suggests climate sensitivity >>>is really much lower, then it says nothing about the earlier warm >>>period (could still have been driven by solar forcing), but >>>suggests future warming is overestimated. If however it implies >>>the reconstructions are underestimating past climate changes, then >>>it suggests the earlier warm period may well have been warmer than >>>indicated (driven by variability, if nothing else) while >>>suggesting future climate changes will be large. >>> >>>This is the essence of the problem. >>> >>>David >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>At 9:28 AM +0000 1/10/05, Keith Briffa wrote: >>>>THanks Stefan >>>>At 21:13 07/01/2005, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: >>>>>Keith, >>>>> >>>>>some comments added in the text for the past millennium, plus I >>>>>wrote some extra sentences on the implications of the dispute >>>>>(repeated below). >>>>>Hope it is useful, >>>>>Stefan >>>>> >>>>>>Note that the major differences between the proxy >>>>>>reconstructions and between the model simulations for the past >>>>>>millennium occur for the cool periods in the 17th-19th >>>>>>Centuries; none of these reconstructions or models suggests >>>>>>that there was a warmer period than the late 20th Century in >>>>>>the record. >>>>>> >>>>>>A larger amplitude of preindustrial natural climate variability >>>>>>does not imply a smaller anthropogenic contribution to 20th >>>>>>Century warming (which is estimated from 20th Century data, see >>>>>>Chapter XXX on attribution), nor does it imply a smaller >>>>>>sensitivity of climate to CO2, or a lesser projected warming >>>>>>for the future. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>-- >>>>>Stefan Rahmstorf >>>>>www.ozean-klima.de >>>>>www.realclimate.org >>>>>_______________________________________________ >>>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>>>>http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 >>>> >>>>-- >>>>Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>Climatic Research Unit >>>>University of East Anglia >>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>> >>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>> >>>>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>>_______________________________________________ >>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>>>http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 >>>_______________________________________________ >>>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>>http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 >> >>-- >>Professor Keith Briffa, >>Climatic Research Unit >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>_______________________________________________ >>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 > > >-- >______________________________________________________________ >Eystein Jansen >Professor/Director >Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >Allégaten 55 >N-5007 Bergen >NORWAY >e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - >Home: +47-55-910661 >Fax: +47-55-584330 >----------------------- >The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students >More info at: www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts >---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >_______________________________________________ >Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2910. 2005-01-10 15:16:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jan 10 15:16:43 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: idag paleo to: Gabi Hegerl OK Phil At 14:53 10/01/2005, you wrote: Phil, if we want hans' results presented, how about Eduardo Zorita? That way we could see what their problem is, and have a bit of a discussion about it. Do you think this would be a good idea? Edu is ok, too cynical to be confrontative. I'll definitely ask Pollack. Gabi Phil Jones wrote: Gabi, IPCC is getting to me too. I should have all of Ch 3 done by about Wednesday. I would go for Henry Pollack. If he's unavailable then Hans. Ben would not be too happy with Hans being at our IDAG meeting again. Nathan Gillett joins CRU today, so he'll likely be sending you a new email address in the next few days. It should be n.gillett@uea.ac.uk if you want to send him something. His old address will likely bounce here for several months. Cheers Phil At 17:48 07/01/2005, you wrote: p.s. my style seems affected by ipcc - so to clarify: I am only for inviting Hans if you are happy with it! Gabi Hegerl wrote: Hi Phil, In wanted to quickly check back with you on the paleo bit of the IDAG meeting: We tried Mike, but missed him since he has a visitor on campus that week, and also could not get Ray Bradley. Tom now suggetss to invite Henry Pollack, since there is some new stuff on consistency with Boreholes (Tom and my record is consistent), and Myles and Tom suggests Hans - what do you think? Mike said he;'d give you his talk to give since he can't make it. I would like two things - that we can really get a good feel for this issue in IDAG - that the meeting is enjoyable without fights What do you think?\ enjoy chapter writing! Gabi -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, [1]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, [2]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5070. 2005-01-10 18:48:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jan 10 18:48:22 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] comments to 6.3.2.1 (mainly for Keith) to: David Rind and I also - Keith but Stefan has misinterpreted what we say in our perspectives piece - but not relevant to persue it now Keith At 16:33 10/01/2005, you wrote: Stefan, I agree with your comment entirely. David At 5:28 PM +0100 1/10/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: Hi David, it looks like we agree - what does Keith say about his draft text? I think it should make a clear statement that the ongoing discussion about the Mann curve, no matter "who is right" there, does not mean we have to revise either the climate sensitivity estimate of IPCC, nor the projections of future warming. I can list you lots of newspaper articles making exactly this wrong claim (Putin's advisor made it too), that's why we need to make this absolutely clear. Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf [1]www.ozean-klima.de [2]www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu [3]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2227. 2005-01-10 22:40:31 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 22:40:31 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Input for section 6.2.2 - Data LA's please respond to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi Friends - this email is for all Chap 6 LA's who work with generating and using paleo data. Section 6.2.2 (Methods - Observations) has turned out to be a bit more complicated than at first pass. Jean-Claude has taken a stab, and his effort (appreciated) makes it clear that we have a job still to do before the ZOD, as well as after. We can postpone most of the detailed effort until after the ZOD, but what we need is a good, chapter relevant and up-to-date methods section for the ZOD. Since Jean-Claude is a paleoceanographer, that part of his text is in good shape. However, we need to balance it out. So, if you are a data person, pls answer (respond to both Peck and Eystein): 1. do you have time to help Jean-Claude draft a really good 1 page section? If yes, Eystein can send Jean-Claude's prose right away (or I can if he doesn't do it first). 2. what data types are used in our section? 3. what methods (i.e., chronological, proxy measurement, calibration, analysis, etc.) need to be mentioned? 4. what methods of data generation, calibration or analysis are new or significantly improved since the time of TAR? 5. what are the key references (especially post-2000) references for #'s 2, 3 and 4 above? The job of the section 6.2.2 writing team is to produce a short (1 page final IPCC, or 2 page single spaced draft) section that gives a balanced overview of the data-related methods on which our chapter is based. As Jean-Claude notes, it needs to start with some introduction/motivation, and then it needs to turn to time control, and then types of data - both forcing and response. It should also briefly discuss analysis breakthroughs. I'm guessing Keith would be a huge help here, once he gets his last 2000 years section done. Fortunat is also needed to ensure we get his part of the picture painted well. So, looking for some heros. EVERYONE, please send in the answers to the above. Thanks! Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 5156. 2005-01-11 11:47:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 11:47:21 -0500 from: David Rind subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Bullet points for the executive summary for to: Stefan Rahmstorf , Jonathan Overpeck Sorry, but I don't think the first comment is either necessarily true or helpful to the chapter. The "encouraging successes" I believe are not based on first principle models - here Stefan and I disagree most strongly, but I would say my point of view does represent that of GCM modelers in general. Concerning the disagreement in the other sections I've agreed to mute my comments in this regard, but saying that such models have effectively solved problems (encouraging successes) is too much. I would end the first paragraph for section 6.2.3 without that last phrase - but then the remaining comment has already been made in that section. Concerning the second comment: I think that's a fair statement. David At 2:40 PM +0100 1/11/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: >I propose the following draft bullet points: > >(section 6.2.3 - paleo modeling) >- Paleoclimatic modeling has become a well-established branch of >climate research in recent years. The full spectrum of models that >is used for simulating present climate and future scenarios is now >being tested on many different problems of past climate, with >encouraging successes. [Could specify some examples if desired.] > >(section 6.4.3.3 - model evaluation of abrupt changes) >- Climate models are used to explore the possible mechanisms of past >abrupt climate changes with encouraging results. Although the >research has not yet consolidated into a generally accepted theory, >several viable mechanisms for abrupt climate changes have been >demonstrated in models. The increasing availability of >high-resolution paleoclimatic data is providing very useful data >constraints for testing these hypothesis. > >-- >Stefan Rahmstorf >www.ozean-klima.de >www.realclimate.org > >_______________________________________________ >Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4787. 2005-01-11 12:25:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jan 11 12:25:07 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: manuscript to: Scott Rutherford Thanks for that Scott. I've included it in the draft figure for IPCC. Hope all's well with you. I see that Andrew Weaver has rebutted McIntyre's request to stall our paper - good job. McIntyre's messages sounded like he'd seen all of the review process of the paper, yet obviously he hadn't otherwise he'd have known that the reviewers specifically requested discussion of McIntyre and McItrick. Cheers Tim At 21:58 22/12/2004, you wrote: Tim, Based on the CE and RE, the combined network is probably the best choice for an annual mean reconstructin, particularly as the network gets sparse back in time. So, attached is a file with year in column 1 and nh mean temp anomaly (1900-1960 reference period) in column 2. It's plain ascii text. I'm off for the holidays but may try to check e-mail tomorrow morning if you have questions. Scott On Dec 21, 2004, at 10:50 AM, Tim Osborn wrote: Hi Scott, I'm just helping with a contribution to the next IPCC assessment report and I'd like to include a reconstruction of NH annual temperature from our paper that's in press. I guess the RegEM reconstruction using the combined MXD+multiproxy network would be the "best" choice? If you agree, could you please send me a data file for the NH time series? Cheers! Tim At 14:00 24/09/2004, you wrote: Dear All, Attached is the version of the manuscript I sent in for press. The only changes are the addition of a URL for supplementary material and data files and the change of one reference that was listed as "In Press" has now been published. I'll let everyone know when I get galleys. Cheers, Scott ______________________________________________ Dr. Scott Rutherford Assistant Professor Dept. of Natural Sciences Roger Williams University e-mail: srutherford@rwu.edu [1]http://fox.rwu.edu/~rutherfo phone: (401) 254-3208 snail mail: One Ferry Road Bristol, RI 02809 Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm ______________________________________________ Dr. Scott Rutherford Assistant Professor Dept. of Natural Sciences Roger Williams University e-mail: srutherford@rwu.edu [4]http://fox.rwu.edu/~rutherfo phone: (401) 254-3208 snail mail: One Ferry Road Bristol, RI 02809 2811. 2005-01-11 16:06:32 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jan 11 16:06:32 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Messages re NA Salinity to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, Just found a couple of messages - one of which said put it in 3.9, so sorry about that. Will check in 3.3 now. I've redone CQ8. It is longer, but expands on some results you put in. I've rewritten the preamble of 3 paras though as I felt it needed this. This can be cut though. I've left one of the highlighted bits there for views. I suspect both CQs will get extensively rewritten when all CQs are brought together. Fixed Matilde's point. A change need to go in twice. Also found your email from Brian with a figure for TRMM. Should this go in? I've put in Adler's paragraph and his second figure (a map of trend). Highlighted that this needs checking with Dave's plots in 3.3. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil Kevin, Good idea re 3.9. I'll put it there. There is still a couple of days for the diagrams. They have placeholders in the text, but won't have any discussion of them - unless they come tonight or tomorrow. Byron say they will come tonight or tomorrow, so should be OK. Just got rid of all the US Spellings - very carefully ! Almost got caught by Colorado ! Cheers Phil At 15:06 11/01/2005, you wrote: Phil Not sure what you did with the material I sent. It was in the form of a paragraph that could be inserted in 3.9 perhaps as a cross cutting issue with other chapters. Sounds like good progress on the references. Not too happy about how long the figs are taking and the fact we haven't seen them. I very gently chided Dave Easterling who is here at the mtg, so no oversight back at the NCDC. Don't hesitate to make demands. Had brief discussion with Dave P and Chris F. Session on MSU yesterday with Fu giving his paper saying MSU 2LT is physically impossible. Did not go down well with John. His main comeback was how does his stuff agree with sondes. That seems to be main issue. I have not yet read all the Had At paper. Would prefer that sampling issues better dealt with (12 per month not so good). Also spatial sampling: in tropics some areas not covered at all: est Pacific etc. Nice Manabe symposium yesterday Kevin On Tue, 11 Jan 2005, Phil Jones wrote: > > Kevin, > Received this from you on Jan 7. Roxana has resent it on Jan 10. > Should I put in the para somewhere? > > I am almost done with the whole thing. I spent all the weekend > going through the text and adding in little bits and generally tidying > up. Albert went through a text version and the refs and checked > everything. I've incorporated all this. There were about 20 refs > not there - I've reduced this by 3 from web searching. 200 citations > in the text got corrected - mainly a,b,c's and years incorrect. I think > Albert was on this most of the weekend. > > I've just spent 3 hours on completing references from AGU, AMS > web sites and the final issue of 2004 for IJC which came. For all > these journals I've now changed 2004 to 2005 for papers not yet out > as all issues are finished. Just need to go through and change 2004 > to 2005 in the text. Some of the 200 (above) included this. The > only wrong ones (potentially) are journals I can't access on the web. > If Climate Dynamics would just put its last issue out for 2004 that > would get another 3. > > Also highlighted some inconsistencies, that I've no time > to follow. These relate to Chinese and Russian journal numbering. They > may be OK, they just look odd. > > Byron emailed last night, so agreed on final format for precip maps. > Hopefully they will all come tonight ! > > Hope meeting going well. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 08:00 11/01/2005, roxana@ciberplai.net wrote: > >Kevin, Phil > >Thanks for the message. I agree with Kevin about the issue of changes in > >precip, fresh water fluxes and North Atlantic salinity. > >Cheers, > >Roxana. > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Kevin Trenberth > > To: roxana bojariu > > Cc: Phil Jones ; Gulev Sergey > > Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 5:36 PM > > Subject: Re: Latest draft of our chapter > > > > > > Roxana, Phil > > > > I looked over the paper you so kindly sent. I found it > > > >quite convincing and we ought to include it somewhere. I was > > > >a bit disapointed in the paper because it was so narrowly > > > >focused on the north Atlantic, without the surrounding land > > > >or the souther North Atlantic. So it was oriented toward the > > > >increase in P-E but it is nearly all P. The context is that > > > >P also increased in adjacent land areas I believe. But where > > > >did the moisture come from? The thought is that it came from > > > >the subtropics and that is why salinity is increasing there, > > > >but the paper did not deal with that. Also it did not deal > > > >enough with run off (if P is increasing over land, that must > > > >also be a factor), and glacier melt. Something did not look > > > >right to me about the NAO series. > > > > The problem with the Josey contribution is that is was > > > >under sfc fluxes but it dealt with P mostly and not the > > > >surface fluxes. The changes in the North Atlantic salinity > > > >would make a great box, but it is a cross cutting issue that > > > >involves the ocean and the ice sections. > > > > I have followed this quite a lot and here is a paragraph > > > >from a recent article of mine: > > > > > > Recently a number of studies have highlighted the changes > > > >going on within the ocean in terms of both energy and > > > >salinity. Changes in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic > > > >Ocean over the past four decades have been revealed by > > > >Dickson et al. (2002) and Curry et al. (2003). They find a > > > >freshening in the North Atlantic and also south of 25°S, > > > >while salinity has increased in the tropics and subtropics, > > > >especially in the upper 500 m. The implication is that > > > >there have been substantial increases in moisture transport > > > >by the atmosphere from the subtropics to higher latitudes, > > > >perhaps in association with changes in atmospheric > > > >circulation, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). > > > >Antonov et al. (2002) suggest that there is a secular > > > >decrease in overall ocean salinity, raising questions about > > > >the role of melting glaciers. Wadhams and Munk (2004) have > > > >assessed this aspect in the context of the overall sea level > > > >rise and estimated sea ice melt, suggesting that the 20th > > > >century eustatic rise (from added mass) is only 0.6 mm/yr. > > > > > > > > Antonov, J. I., S. Levitus, and T. P. Boyer, 2002: Steric > > > >sea level variations during 1957-1994: Importance of > > > >salinity. J. Geophys. Res., 107 (C12), 8013, > > > >doi:10.1029/2001JC000964. > > > > Curry, R., B. Dickson, and I. Yashayaev, 2003: A change in > > > >the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past > > > >four decades. Nature, 426, 826-829. > > > > > > Dickson B., I. Yashayaev, J. Meincke, B. Turrell, S. Dye > > > >and J. Holtfort, 2002: Rapid freshening of the deep North > > > >Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature, 416, > > > >832-837. > > > > > > > > Wadhams, P, and W. Munk, 2004: Ocean freshening, sea level > > > >rising, sea ice melting. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11311, > > > >doi:10.1029/2004GL020039 > > > > > > > > Now we could add a sentence to say: > > Further, exploration of changes in surface fresh water flux > > > >over the North Atlantic by Josey and Marsh (2005) provide > > > >strong evidence that increases in precipitation from 1960-74 > > > >to 1975-1989 are the main factor. > > > > But then this issue is also related to sea level: if > > > >glacier melt is a factor then sea level goes up; if > > > >evaporation is the main factor it does not, so this is a > > > >constraint. > > > > Phil, can we get this in in some way, perhaps as a cross > > > >cutting issue in 3.9? Also make sure that the P changes are > > > >mentioned in section 3.3. I think we should also highlight > > > >it for further development with other chapters, perhaps as a > > > >Box. We may want to make Roxana a key person on looking > > > >after this topic for our chapter and to interact with > > > >chapters 4 and 5 on this topic. I am listed as the cross cut > > > >person with chapter 5 and Sergey is their person, so I'll cc > > > >Surgey; I can help but I suspect I won't have time to > > > >devote to it . > > > > Kevin > > > > > > roxana bojariu wrote: > > > > Kevin writes: > > >I don't know that reference??? Ah I see below it is not > > > >published yet. > > >Do you have a pdf? > > > > Yes, please find enclosed it. Now is in press. > > > > Josey, S. A. and R. Marsh, 2005: Surface Freshwater Flux > > > >Variability and Recent Freshening of the North Atlantic in > > > >the Eastern Subpolar Gyre,Journal of Geophysical Research,in > > > >press. > > > > >Josey works with sfc fluxes, not reanalyses. If there is > > > >P from > > >reanalyses used then it is worthless, in my view. > > > > Yes, but he compared them with rain gauge measurements > > > >from land stations bordering the ocean area in which P and > > > >P-E show the trend. > > > > >Kumar is not observations and model precip is not > > > >reliable enough to > > >trust in my view. That is what it says in the ocean > > > >precip section. I > > >am aware of the salinity changes of Dickson, and Curry > > > >et al, but that > > >should be in ocean chapter. This is something we need to > > > >address in > > >next version, but not sure we can do it this time > > > >around. > > > > I think you are right. > > > > > > > > Cheers, > > Roxana. > > > > > > > >-- > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > --------------- Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 ******************************* Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2431. 2005-01-11 22:39:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de,drind@giss.nasa.gov date: Tue Jan 11 22:39:09 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: where I am !!!! ! to: jto@jto.inbox.email.arizona.edu ,Eystein Jansen Basically , I need to send this to you to because there comes a point when I am just not able to read it objectively. I would really like you both - and David and Stefan (I am ccing to them only) to look at it . Obviously it has grown too much, but the information in here is in my opinion all important. I suggest removing the regional simulations stuff from the end (as David said earlier!) but feel this should be somewhere - also (sorry Eystein) perhaps the ocean section should go? I have dropped the proposed Figure 2 _ after wasting a lot of time on it - there are too many problems with getting and understanding data - and then making any sensible conclusion on the basis of it. We really must have the two Figures left though - or some variants (these need borehole curves including and some way of indicating envelope of uncertainty around all reconstructions - perhaps as gray shading of different darkness depending on how may confidence limits overlap). I would really appreciate a dispassionate look by all of you at the conclusions drawn after the the desciption of both Figures - in the light of the discussion we had about interpreting these Figures. I am really happy if you and David and Stefan (and Fortunat?) consider what is worth and not worth trying to say re the implications of these Figures, beyond the TAR. I can not tell if what I am saying is balanced (I know Esper reconstruction is very hairy and ECHO-G run has much too great long-term variability - but no evidence PUBLISHED to support this - yet at least). Is what I say about the implications of the reconstructions banal? I have been battling with teaching today and fucked up course scheduling by the administration that has outraged some students. Tomorrow I must take daughter back for new term in Cambridge - and now must work on proposal for Russian who leaves Thursday and needs to submit before then. Do have a look and trim , cross reference as needed. The nightmare with these references continues also and I will have to get someone to help out here - incidentally our secretary has gone absent for a month . I will be back in hopefully by tomorrow afternoon . The conclusions (bullets?) should be very brief - but can not see them yet - suggestions welcome I can try to do something for the methods but would rather you just told me exactly what is needed. I will then work on this Thursday and likely happy to accept what you say re this text. I know I have not contributed to the discussing on other sections - very frustrating - but must wait til after ZOD . Sorry Keith -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4722. 2005-01-11 22:40:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 22:40:03 +0000 from: Mail Delivery System subject: Mail delivery failed: returning message to sender to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk This message was created automatically by mail delivery software. A message that you sent could not be delivered to all of its recipients. The following address(es) failed: jto@jto.inbox.email.arizona.edu: Connection refused: retry timeout exceeded ------ This is a copy of the message, including all the headers. ------ ------ The body of the message is 761947 characters long; only the first ------ 102400 or so are included here. Return-path: Received: from [139.222.130.17] (helo=mailserver2.uea.ac.uk) by mailgate1.uea.ac.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.02 #2) id 1CoUfz-001GTY-00; Tue, 11 Jan 2005 22:39:47 +0000 Received: from [139.222.104.198] (helo=nairobi.uea.ac.uk) by mailserver2.uea.ac.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.02 #1) id 1CoUfv-001LLA-00; Tue, 11 Jan 2005 22:39:43 +0000 Message-Id: <6.1.0.6.0.20050111220646.038ca128@pop.uea.ac.uk> X-Sender: f023@pop.uea.ac.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.0.6 Date: Tue, 11 Jan 2005 22:39:09 +0000 To: jto@jto.inbox.email.arizona.edu, Eystein Jansen From: Keith Briffa Subject: where I am !!!! ! Cc: rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de,drind@giss.nasa.gov Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="=====================_567588408==_" X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean --=====================_567588408==_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Basically , I need to send this to you to because there comes a point when I am just not able to read it objectively. I would really like you both - and David and Stefan (I am ccing to them only) to look at it . Obviously it has grown too much, but the information in here is in my opinion all important. I suggest removing the regional simulations stuff from the end (as David said earlier!) but feel this should be somewhere - also (sorry Eystein) perhaps the ocean section should go? I have dropped the proposed Figure 2 _ after wasting a lot of time on it - there are too many problems with getting and understanding data - and then making any sensible conclusion on the basis of it. We really must have the two Figures left though - or some variants (these need borehole curves including and some way of indicating envelope of uncertainty around all reconstructions - perhaps as gray shading of different darkness depending on how may confidence limits overlap). I would really appreciate a dispassionate look by all of you at the conclusions drawn after the the desciption of both Figures - in the light of the discussion we had about interpreting these Figures. I am really happy if you and David and Stefan (and Fortunat?) consider what is worth and not worth trying to say re the implications of these Figures, beyond the TAR. I can not tell if what I am saying is balanced (I know Esper reconstruction is very hairy and ECHO-G run has much too great long-term variability - but no evidence PUBLISHED to support this - yet at least). Is what I say about the implications of the reconstructions banal? I have been battling with teaching today and fucked up course scheduling by the administration that has outraged some students. Tomorrow I must take daughter back for new term in Cambridge - and now must work on proposal for Russian who leaves Thursday and needs to submit before then. Do have a look and trim , cross reference as needed. The nightmare with these references continues also and I will have to get someone to help out here - incidentally our secretary has gone absent for a month . I will be back in hopefully by tomorrow afternoon . The conclusions (bullets?) should be very brief - but can not see them yet - suggestions welcome I can try to do something for the methods but would rather you just told me exactly what is needed. I will then work on this Thursday and likely happy to accept what you say re this text. I know I have not contributed to the discussing on other sections - very frustrating - but must wait til after ZOD . Sorry Keith -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ --=====================_567588408==_ Content-Type: application/msword; name="IPCCFAR11-01-05 .doc"; x-mac-type="42494E41"; x-mac-creator="4D535744" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="IPCCFAR11-01-05 .doc" 0M8R4KGxGuEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPgADAP7/CQAGAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAJAAAARAQAAAAAAAAA EAAARgQAAAEAAAD+////AAAAADsEAAA8BAAAPQQAAD4EAAA/BAAAQAQAAEEEAABCBAAAQwQAAP// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 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to drop 'value laden' terms from the draft, so this discussion does not really concern IPCC Chapter 6; and in fact, I think Jonathan has agreed to put your bullet concerning 'success' into the document. This is now more a question of defining what the terms I've been referring to really signify. Parameterizing the dynamics means that everything the weather service does - not only the synoptic scale eddies, but all planetary waves - all atmospheric modes of variabililty (including the NAO, AO, PNA) - all the storms that produce precipitation, rain, snow, drought, patterns that influence paleoclimate observations and their regional distribution - all the cloud cover associated with these storms that affect radiation absorption - all of the elements of weather that influence climate are parameterized. The primary conservation law in the atmosphere is conservation of potential vorticity - by not solving the momentum equation, in effect that conservation is violated. And it is not just the eddies that are being parameterized - the mean fields, which depend on eddy convergences of heat and momentum can't be determined either. The primary advance in atmospheric dynamics over the last 50 years is the non-acceleration theorem, which includes the concept that one cannot determine what happens to any of the mean fields, like temperature, without calculating what happens to momentum; and momentum change with climate cannot be parameterized because it involves 1) unparameterizable things like frictional dissipation, which doesn't have any easy relationship to large scale energy fields ; and 2)nonlinear terms like momentum convergence. Peter Stone has spent half his life trying to come up with such parameterizations, and basically has given up. And it is not only extratropical dynamics - the ageostrophic circulations like the Hadley Cell and Walker Cells, and the hydrologic fields associated with them can't be calculated without solving the momentum equation. Attempts to parameterize the Hadley Cell always fail when compared with models that do calculate it (another example of Richard Lindzen's simplified view of the world). So this is not just 'a few other' parameterizations - it's a good part of the ball game. This is very different from saying that GCMs do not resolve small scale features, like convection, or eddies in the ocean, or turbulence in the boundary layer. Of course, at a certain level, every model includes parameterizations, but the real question is what is the order of the phenomena that is being parameterized, and when it is zeroth order, that is no longer what I would call a 'first principles' model. Throughout the draft in this chapter we have referred to the use of other types of models (i.e., EMICs) as valuable in suggesting linkages and concepts, and I think that is the case (some GCM people won't even go that far). The concepts associated with hysteresis that your papers in particular discuss are very important, and I think I've included that comment in some of the text I've written. So in no sense do I want to limit what models are applied to these complicated questions; we need all models on whatever scales and with whatever limitations, until the time when we come up with models that really can do everything. When I've suggested that such models cannot be used to 'prove' anything (words that are no longer in the draft) - hence where I draw the line in what I believe to be their usefulness - it is because of the limitations noted above. Note that climate change skeptics say the same things about GCMs using the same principles concerning GCM limitations you refer to below, and of course to some extent they are right - proof is a relative term in real world physics. But saying that doesn't mean the heuristic arguments that these skeptics use has the same value as real science, and it also doesn't mean that all models are created equal. EMICs give up a lot of validity in gaining the ability to run simulations with very large time steps - there are no free lunches. The fact that GCMs cannot run long enough to look at how past-climate influences, over thousands of years, affect things is a severe limitation when such effects are important, as in the case of ice sheets and perhaps the ocean circulation - thus in many paleoclimate applications. Let's not overlook the very severe limitations that EMICs take on themselves by avoiding that one. David At 12:40 PM +0100 1/12/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: >A response to David's comment on bullet point 6.2.3: >this is not a bullet point that refers to any particular model, but >to all efforts of modeling paleoclimate. Personally, I think that >these efforts show encouraging successes. Now, if other people think >that the efforts in modeling paleoclimate over the past years were >mostly a failure, we may need to revise this bullet point. This >could turn out to be a discussion over wether the glass is half full >or half empty, though, which we may not resolve. >The reason I wrote about "encouraging successes" is that many people >have the impression that climate models are generally unable to >reproduce past climate changes, and I think that's not true, I think >we are starting to get some encouraging successes, while we are of >course still in an early stage of this field. > >On the different models there is indeed a disagreement between David >and myself, which partly reflects how in my perception the GCM >community is attempting to hold back the competition from other >models and retain an exclusive claim to the truth, so to speak. The >term "first principle models" used by David is a case in point, it >is a term chosen to make GCMs appear as "first principle", while >other models are put into a class below that. I don't think this >kind of language is helpful or can be justified in a scientific >sense. > >To give an example: arguably the most severe simplification in the >atmosphere model of CLIMBER2 is that synoptic eddies in the >atmosphere are not resolved, rather their effects on the large-scale >circulation are parameterised. To parameterise the effects of >synoptic eddies is standard practice in all ocean GCMs used in >coupled climate models. Hence, if using such a parameterisation of >synoptic eddies makes a model not "first principle" any more, then >none of the existing coupled GCMs is a "first principle" model >either. What David calls "first principle" models employ many >parameterisations that are not first principle - clouds, convection, >you name it. > >Clearly there is a whole spectrum of models, and they use different >ways of simulating and parameterising various mechanisms, which have >to be evaluated on a case by case basis, and some models are better >for some purposes than others. (Think of tsunami spreading models - >the best models for that will use the shallow water equations rather >than the primitive equations, and it would be silly to argue this is >somehow bad or not state-of-the-art because it is a "simplified" >model.) I would really object to any value-laden statements that >suggest GCMs are somehow fundamentally different from models that >parameterise or simplify one process or another. > >Cheers, Stefan > >-- >Stefan Rahmstorf >www.ozean-klima.de >www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1968. 2005-01-12 09:42:14 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jan 12 09:42:14 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Our joint project to: "Brohan, Philip" Philip, Making arrangements for the trip. Should get my copying in the archive done on Jan 26, so pencil in Jan 27. Harry's gone to Bangor for a few days to help them finish an earlier project that should have finished end of 2003. He's still doing quite a bit even though another project is paying him at the moment. Putting something down for a report is very useful. It does show what is still needed. We should discuss the error approach a little more for example. Apart from the normals work he has 2 things left to do. One is to check some outliers which arose re the ERA-40 work. Some of these have already been found. Second he has to send you the homogeneity corrections we've put together and then we can discuss these. Cheers Phil At 16:23 10/01/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil. I'm glad to hear that you're not completely submerged by IPCC work. I'm free on Jan 27-8 so anytime then would be good. (Check that the archive will be open though; they were saying 'February' last I heard). I've started to draft a report on the HadCRUT3 work, not because I think we are nearly finished, but because it will force me to confront all the bits that still need to be done. Hence my message to Harry. He's doing good work, I'm just starting to worry that we are going to run out of time with some key component missing. Regards, Philip On Mon, 2005-01-10 at 14:46, Phil Jones wrote: > > Philip, > Harry has just showed me your email today. Harry is still working > on the > project adjusting all the normals at the moment. He will have time to > complete > this and also to check out the outliers that came up in the comparison work > with ERA-40 (paper just out - pdf attached). > > I'm just about resurfacing after spending most the break and last week > working to put together the zeroth order draft of the chapter on Atmos. Obs. > for IPCC. I hope to send this off in the next couple of days, once I get > a few > more diagrams from NCDC. All has to be with the WG1 Secretariat on > Friday. > > I'm planning to come down to Exeter Jan 26-27 maybe 28th as well. I > have to > copy some early British rainfall data from the 10-year books in the Archives, > but I hope this won't take too long. I would then be able to talk to you > about the > work and also have some discussions with Tara and Rob about EMULATE. > > I've just sent an email to the Archives to see if the new Devon > County archive > will be open on Jan 26 and 27. How do these dates suit you? > > I'll be away Jan 18-20 in Stockholm. > > Cheers > Phil > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Philip Brohan, Climate Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Tel: +44 (0)1392 884574 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Email: philip.brohan@metoffice.com [1]http://www.metoffice.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4281. 2005-01-12 12:40:03 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 12:40:03 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Bullet points for the executive summary for to: David Rind A response to David's comment on bullet point 6.2.3: this is not a bullet point that refers to any particular model, but to all efforts of modeling paleoclimate. Personally, I think that these efforts show encouraging successes. Now, if other people think that the efforts in modeling paleoclimate over the past years were mostly a failure, we may need to revise this bullet point. This could turn out to be a discussion over wether the glass is half full or half empty, though, which we may not resolve. The reason I wrote about "encouraging successes" is that many people have the impression that climate models are generally unable to reproduce past climate changes, and I think that's not true, I think we are starting to get some encouraging successes, while we are of course still in an early stage of this field. On the different models there is indeed a disagreement between David and myself, which partly reflects how in my perception the GCM community is attempting to hold back the competition from other models and retain an exclusive claim to the truth, so to speak. The term "first principle models" used by David is a case in point, it is a term chosen to make GCMs appear as "first principle", while other models are put into a class below that. I don't think this kind of language is helpful or can be justified in a scientific sense. To give an example: arguably the most severe simplification in the atmosphere model of CLIMBER2 is that synoptic eddies in the atmosphere are not resolved, rather their effects on the large-scale circulation are parameterised. To parameterise the effects of synoptic eddies is standard practice in all ocean GCMs used in coupled climate models. Hence, if using such a parameterisation of synoptic eddies makes a model not "first principle" any more, then none of the existing coupled GCMs is a "first principle" model either. What David calls "first principle" models employ many parameterisations that are not first principle - clouds, convection, you name it. Clearly there is a whole spectrum of models, and they use different ways of simulating and parameterising various mechanisms, which have to be evaluated on a case by case basis, and some models are better for some purposes than others. (Think of tsunami spreading models - the best models for that will use the shallow water equations rather than the primitive equations, and it would be silly to argue this is somehow bad or not state-of-the-art because it is a "simplified" model.) I would really object to any value-laden statements that suggest GCMs are somehow fundamentally different from models that parameterise or simplify one process or another. Cheers, Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3232. 2005-01-12 15:17:34 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 15:17:34 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: Re: new(?) attack on your work to: Keith Briffa Keith - thought you might like to see Mike's response about the new paper - Tim >Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 09:35:15 -0500 >To: Tim Osborn >From: "Michael E. Mann" >Subject: Re: new(?) attack on your work >Cc: rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, > p.jones@uea.ac.uk, mann@virginia.edu > >Dear Tim, > >There is clearly a problem at GRL now. I don't know which editor is >allowing these papers in (Soon et al, now this one), but its clearly >beyond our control. > >The paper is all crap. I don't think I'll respond. "RealClimate" already >discredits their PCA centering convention claims, and our papers in >review and in press make this all moot... > >They can continue trying to go after MBH98--It's now chasing a ghost, >since we've all moved on to other methods, and other results, which >support the same contention. > >I can't allow myself to be sidelined with this sort of crap any further, > >Mike > >At 09:30 AM 1/12/05, Tim Osborn wrote: >>Hi Mike, >> >>with the aim of keeping you informed, rather than upsetting you, I >>thought I should forward you this manuscript from McIntyre and McKitrick >>- I've been told that it has just been accepted by GRL, though I can't >>vouch for that. None of the UEA lot reviewed it! >> >>You may already have seen it or know about it - I see you've already >>addressed some points about centre-ing of data prior to PCA on >>realclimate.org. Anyway, in case you haven't seen it, it's attached. >> >>Cheers >> >>Tim >> >> >> >>Dr Timothy J Osborn >>Climatic Research Unit >>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >> >>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>phone: +44 1603 592089 >>fax: +44 1603 507784 >>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > >_______________________________________________________________________ > Professor Michael E. Mann > Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall > University of Virginia > Charlottesville, VA 22903 >_______________________________________________________________________ >e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 > http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 2755. 2005-01-12 15:53:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jan 12 15:53:22 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: This and that to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, Almost all done. Precip figures are in with a little bit of text. Just waiting on the 5 temperature ones. Pressing Byron to send later today. Once these are in I'll send it off. I'll send you what I submit. I'll email the rest to say it has gone in and one of us will send them the version that WGI put together, so we're all working with the same draft as the reviewers will get. When that is sent we can send to the CAs. I'm away Jan 18-20 in Stockholm and Jan 24-27 in Reading/Exeter. When I submit I'll ask WGI when their final copy to send to LAs and CAs will be available - and/or where/when to download it. I've put in the final figure from Peterson and Owen (2005) on urbanization, partly to see what the reviewers think of it. There are a number of things we should do before Beijing. I'll try and put my thoughts on this over the next few days. I don't expect any to get done soon, as I want at least a month away from the Chapter. We need to pick the momentum up though well before May. I've been asked to be on the NRC panel to look at the CCSP report. I hear you're too busy. I should be but one of their possible slots was free, so I may get involved. A possible meeting (C2D2) might happen March 8-9. Will you be at that? This could be an opportune time to pick up the momentum, but I think we might have to start before that. Diagrams have been a big problem this time - they always need more time. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 501. 2005-01-12 16:04:23 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 16:04:23 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Bullet points for the executive summary for to: David Rind Dear David, now we're talking science; that's good. I appreciate that for atmospheric dynamics, the effects you are talking about are the first-order effects. How well any attempts to parameterise these effects work has to be judged by the results, e.g., the comparison of a parameterisation with data and with results from more comprehensive models. How well, for example, a model like CLIMBER2 performs in this respect is documented in the published literature. The results for large-scale features (e.g., zonal averages and the like), which we are aiming for, lie generally within the range of GCM simulations. And this is not the result (as is a common prejudice amongst the GCM friends) of some illegitimate "tuning" practise - this is all discussed in detail in the papers. If a scientist like Peter Stone didn't succeed, I have all the more respect for my Russian colleagues who were more successful in tackling this problem (it also took them most of their career). The next question then is to what accuracy you need to resolve a specific process to study a particular problem. If you want to study how a tsunami spreads, you can obviously forget about all the atmospheric dynamics, as it plays no role. This is not a climate problem of course, but I would argue that there are also many climate problems in which atmospheric dynamics is not the prime mechanism, and for which you don't need to resolve atmospheric dynamics except that you need to get some very basic feedbacks and responses (e.g., how Hadley cells shift and change in strength), which a parameterised version can give you to an acceptable level of accuracy. If that was not the case, EMICs would be useless, of course. Cheers, Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1929. 2005-01-12 16:55:36 ______________________________________________________ cc: raynaud@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr, Jean-Claude Duplessy date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 16:55:36 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Urgent - FINAL review/edits of 6.5.8 Sensitivity to: Bette Otto-Bleisner , Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn , Eystein Jansen , peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca, rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, cddhr@giss.nasa.gov Hi all on the list above... Some of you have received this already straight from David, but some other key people have not. Eystein and I would appreciate it very much if you would please read/comment/and edit the attached section 6.5.8 (Sensitivity) NO LATER THAN THURSDAY NOON, Eastern time (6PM GMT). Please send responses to all on the address list ABOVE, plus Peck. Thanks, Peck X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 X-Sender: drind@4dmail.giss.nasa.gov Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 13:29:53 -0500 To: joos From: David Rind Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Fwd: 6.5.8 Sensitivity Cc: David Rind , Jonathan Overpeck , Dominique Raynaud , Eystein Jansen , trond.dokken@bjerknes.uib.no, peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca, Jean-Claude Duplessy , rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, cddhr@giss.nasa.gov X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-Spam-Status: No, hits=-2.272 required=7 tests=BAYES_00, HTML_20_30, HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_SUSPECT_NAME X-Spam-Level: Dear Fortunat (and others), Here is the revised section 6.5.8. I've put in most of your changes (and also most of those suggested by Stefan, particularly with regards to clarifying the sign of the radiative forcing). Most importantly, I've removed the table - I agree it seems to imply a solidity that is really not there. The one thing I have not done is condense it greatly (of course!). The real reason for going into such detail, rather than just saying, "well, the forcing and response are uncertain, so we can't conclude anything", is I think it's important to show that paleoclimate scientists have gone to some effort to try to deduce climate sensitivity from the paleorecord, the parameter that is probably of most interest to IPCC. In that respect the details are important, as are the magnitudes of uncertainty represented in the different studies. Obviously, at any point in the proceedings the section can be shortened, but I thought it useful to start with this level of quantification, and show paleoclimate has this similarity with the rest of IPCC in addition to more qualitative concepts. I've responded to your individual comments below. At 6:15 PM +0100 1/11/05, joos wrote: Dear David, Here my comments on the updated climate sensitivity section. Please apologize if I formualate my comments straight away, but I need to leave very soon. Many of my comments might have to do with presentation. Your main conclusions in paragraph f are fine. My view is that it would be ideal to address the issue from a probabilistic view point. this is of course not always possible. 1) Maunder Minimum section: Several studies using Monte Carlo approaches show that almost any climate sensitivity is posssible when taking into account uncertainties in radiative forcing input data as well as observational records over the 20 century as constraints. See the Paris report for more information. The uncertainty does not only arise from indirect aerosol effect, but also form the whole range of forcing agents that all have an uncertainty attached. E.g. Reto Knutti did some evaluation of his results where he assumed that the aerosol forcing is exactly know (No error) -> even then climate sensititivity remains unconstraint. Clearly, uncertainty is growing when going further back in time than the last century as done here. Then, the numbers provided in the table are useless, as you now state in the last sentence of the revised text. 2) Other sections: I think similar concerns also hold for the other sections. For example, the LGM global cooling is very uncertain. I have just heard yesterday a talk by Ralph Schneider who showed how different SST reconstructions (Alkenone, Cd/Ca, MAT, radiolare etc) disagree. global SST cooling might be anywhere between 0 and 4 K or so. Of course, CLIMAP and the recent GLAMAP update provide a reasonable estimate. However, the point is that uncertainies are huge. The table is a very focused and stand alone thing for the reader. It gives the impression that climate sensitivity for different period can be well evaluated. However, this is not the case. 3) My conclusion: - The table should be dropped. I have quite a strong feeling here, as it seems to me that the number in the table are very hard to defend and should not be made prominent. The table and reference to it has been dropped. - The whole section should be condensed considerably. Your main conclusions in paragraph f are fine. Well, removing the table will shorten this section! Further comments: 1) section d) 1. para: solar forcing reduction estimate range up to 0.65% for MM e.g. Reid, 97 and Bard et al. Correction made, and reference added (and I also corrected the numbers as Stefan suggested, although the upper number is actually larger given the Reid estimate). 2) section d, last para equilibrium The statement that transient effects are not important is very hard to defend: 2a) The warming and forcing up to today is considered. Certainly, we are now far from equilibrium ( a lag of 30 years or so). 2b) the volcanic forcing is very pulse like and I do not see how the equilibrium concept holds here. It can only be evaluated in a transient way. 3c) The MM is probably not in equilibrium climate, as solar forcing has likely varied over the MM as indicated by radiocarbon, althoug sunspots were not present I've removed the word "transient" but I have justified the equilibrium aspect of the sentence with a reference (we investigated that issue by running from 1500 through the Maunder Minimum, and seeing what the prior changes in solar forcing did to the Maunder Minimum cooling - the effect, as noted in the reference, was small in our model). 3) section b) end of 1. para: How should such a 'general climate sensitivity' be defined? For now I've simply suggested what should also be factored in; I don't know that it's our place to come up with a new definition per se, although if IPCC is interested, we could try! 4), section c) Somewhat a mix of model and observations. end of 2 para: It is not clear which forcing was operating in these different models (at least it is not stated in the text) and hence one can not directly imply a climate sensitivity in the way done here. For this the forcing that went into the model simulations must be known. I looked at each of the references and saw what forcing they actually used - they were all very similar except for one which used current orbital parameters (not really important). This comment is now included. Hope this is useful and looking foreward to further debate the issue. Thanks for the comments! David ps - Jonathan, the attached Endnote library includes the references we discussed yesterday, as well as all the ones relevant for this section. -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\newest_6.5_2.8.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\IPPC_2007_1_Rind_Copy" 4764. 2005-01-12 17:06:49 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jan 12 17:06:49 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: One quick thing to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, What is Trenberth (2004) referred to in 3.2.2.2 on Urbanization and temperature? It is missing in the refs. Is it Nature 427, 213 and it should be 2003. Or is it 2004 and Nature 427 should be 2004? Or is it something else ! Text of the section hasn't been altered. Albert moved all the refs not referred to to the discard list at the end of the refs. I'm keeping this, but will submit without it, but I'll send it to you and the other LAs as it may prove useful. Just spent one more hour on this tidying and seeing if I could remove any of the highlighted bits. Got 5, yours would be 6. Looked odd if a CLA ref was missing. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1053. 2005-01-12 22:57:53 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , joos , Valerie Masson-Delmotte date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 22:57:53 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: methods - section 6.2.2 to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hi all: Keith and Tim asked for specific requests in terms of what you could do for section 6.2.2. I'm hoping Valerie and Fortunat have already made enough progress that they can ask, but here's my take: 1. you have lots of methodology material in your 6.3.2.1, and this is good. It would be good to refer to this from the earlier, more general 6.2.2 2. the goal of 6.2.2 is to give the reader more confidence in paleo and to get them to read on with confidence that what they read will be of use 3. I suspect that the format V and F will be working around will be one that can first highlight chronological issues (that we can date some proxies very well, and that's what we focus on in this chapter primarily). It would be good to have the usual comforting comments about tree rings and other annual proxies. 4. The, it would be good to have the basics on how proxies reflect climate, and how we know we understand the relationship. That it is useful even if the proxy is responding to things other than climate. Seasonality, etc. Include brief overview of calibration, verification. you know the drill. 5. keep it short and not too detailed. Use lots of references - including to the most recent stuff. 6. I'm sure we'll end up modifying/improving later after we figure out what to do with the appendix 7. Need to work fast, very fast, but hopefully V and F have made real progress already. Thanks!! Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3324. 2005-01-12 22:58:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, drind@giss.nasa.gov, Eystein Jansen , joos date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 22:58:01 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Comments on 6.3.2.1 to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Keith, Tim (and friends- please read below and provide your comments THURS too) - just finished reading your draft and my primary reaction is one of great relief and admiration. You've done an excellent job. I'm sure things will look different in the end, but for the ZOD, this lays things out just fine. That said, here are comments. More are in the attached draft w/ track changes 1. still need to see the figs - ok to state what still has to be done (as you have) 2. regarding the ocean section, I think some of it should stay in - both as a placeholder for other relevant stuff, and because it is important. See attached. It would be good if EYSTEIN would look at my comments for this section and provide the needed minor help - we need the punchline/bullet - how does the 20th century compare with the previous part of the record (you say it shows the warming, but then don't go the next step. 3. THIS IS THE ONLY COMMENT THAT WILL TAKE MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES - can we get THE word on the MWP in before hydro? Heck, I'd even support a small (smaller than the other ones) box. There is lots of debate about the MWP,. and we need to weigh in. Was it global, hemispheric, regional only (e.g., Europe and N. Atlantic - can then refer back to it in ocean section)? Was it one synchronous warm event or a bunch of shorter regionally asynchronous events? Warmer than 20th? Late 20th? (think you answered this, but need to nail it!). Cite the cast of papers you've already discussed, plus Bradley et al Science 03. 4. what you say is balanced, and it's ok to note in the text where you anticipate serious improvement w/ more published paper support - e.g., Esper (you're doing a paper on this, no?) and ECHO-G. 5. have to have boreholes on Figs too - that would be more important now than uncertainty estimates around all recons - the latter is harder, but in any case, say what you intend to add after ZOD. 6. see text - minor edits 7. I can make draft bullets from what you sent Guys - it was worth the wait. Hope you can take advantage of the relatively minor edits required and help some with other sections as asked for. -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 413. 2005-01-13 00:15:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 00:15:35 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: another borehole paper plus Pan et al to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk see my comments in your 6.3.2.1 text about these papers. Pan et al is just one of many that add to the confusion of what is/will happen in central usa in future. we should leave this debate to other chapters. cheers, peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\Huang2004GL019781.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\PanetalGRL2004.pdf" 5338. 2005-01-13 09:53:07 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 09:53:07 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Peck your comments... to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith - 1) ok on the refs - send tomorrow 2) glad you're keen for the box - it can't be too long - maybe shot for ca. 400 words? After the ZOD is done, I'm sure we can tune to the correct balance of info. A fig is ok if it's compelling. The box will either be 6.1 or 6.2 depending on whether you refer to it in your section before or after the glacier box. I'm guessing it'll be 6.1 and come first, but it's your call. Think of a title for the box - something like "Box 6.1: The Medieval Warm Period" or maybe something more catchy. Can't be too glib. 3) glad you have some borehole in there. Of course, you'll be at the front of the line for dealing with the grief we get no matter what choice we make. So the key is to go with what can be best justified. Your section has this nice balance already. Thanks for getting Tim (and you as time permits) to work on those other sections - VERY important too. But, your section is the most important. thx, Peck >...are really welcome. Am now incorporating them , plus doing some >editorial bits - though will wait on Eystein to send replacement >ocean bit . Having to get one of my people to do the references but >not likely these will arrive til tomorrow. The main point to discuss >is your comment on the MWP . I like the idea of a box. This IS >sufficiently important to warrant it - in the context that most >people say "it was warm/warmer than now then so disproves anthro >effect - we should address this explicitly. I will have a go - but >need to know how many words and Figure(s) allowed. We can simply >just refer to this box in a couple of places in existing text. Sorry >about Figures - now got some (2 ) borehole lines in (but may need >more - reluctant to use Huang and Pollack original though because >obviously much too cold on basis of simple regional averaging >biases. Will send latest version (without box on MWP) tonight my >time. >Keith > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2019. 2005-01-13 11:05:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, drind@giss.nasa.gov, Valerie Masson-Delmotte , joos date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 11:05:09 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: comments for 6.4.3.2 and 6.5.6 to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Keith Briffa All - I guess it is David's job to lead the incorporation of these comments into these two sections which he leads, but others may want to discuss too. What do you think about a general bullet along the lines of Commonly cited warm periods, including the Medieval Warm Period, Holocene Climate Optimum, Altithermal, Hypsithermal and others appear to have been distinct only regionally, and in a time-transgressive manner. They should not be cited as globally warm intervals comparable to the late 20th century, and are usually too poorly defined to be of use in the literature. There will soon be a box on the Medieval Warm Period that makes this case for the MWP. Tim and Keith - when drafting, perhaps you should change the box's emphasis slightly to include these other periods. Title it "Box 6.1: The Medieval Warm Period and other Poorly Defined Periods of Regional Warmth." Use the MWP as the in-depth example, and then we can mention the other terms only in the intro. After the ZOD, we can make sure we got it all perfect. Lets put an end to some myths that have been around longer than we have! Thanks all, especially David for updating these two sections as appropriate. cheers, peck X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 X-Sender: f055@pop.uea.ac.uk (Unverified) Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 16:19:31 +0000 To: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa From: Tim Osborn Subject: Re: Need your help on something important Cc: Eystein Jansen , rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, drind@giss.nasa.gov, FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-Spam-Status: No, hits=-2.599 required=7 tests=BAYES_00 X-Spam-Level: At 23:50 12/01/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Toward that end, I wonder if you two (or maybe just Tim if Keith is working more on 6.3.2.1) could read and comment/edit on: Section 6.4.3.2 -evaluation of transient model runs of the last millennium and Section 6.5.8 - synthesis of climate sensitivity issues Eystein and I are asking that you do this FAST because these sections must be compatible with your section 6.3.2.1 (and because you guys know as much as any about the material in these two other sections!). Dear Peck (plus cc to others - have I sent it to the appropriate people?), Keith and I have looked at these sections and the attached documents contain my tracked changes. They seem to be compatible with Keith's section and the figures. We've put in a couple of simple cross-references to the figures from Keith's section. Plus some minor changes. Plus some comments, particularly about the section(d) of the climate sensitivity section. Keith expands upon these latter comments with the following: -------------------- It would be wise NOT to refer to the Maunder Minimum time period. Anyway, 1675-1715 is (by most opinions) the LATE Maunder Minimum (an accidental name that derives from the random non-availability of documentary/paleo data for the earlier part of the period in some [Swiss] study by Pfister and people). Up to then, MM was taken to be 1645/50 to 1715. By using this terminology you divert objective analysis of TOTAL forcing change (particularly given volcanic uncertainty). The definition of "today" is also crucial as it affects (albeit not precise) estimation of forcing changes from the earlier period. The wider the comparison base, the more imprecise the estimates. The narrower the base, the more you could argue about likely non-equilibrium (see Tim's comment in attached document). The volcanic forcing likely means that the LMM is likely not in equilibrium either! Nice if base period for estimates of changes (forcings and temperatures) could be compatible with the base period used in Figure 1). We will cross reference this section from ours. -------------------- Cheers Tim and Keith Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\6.4.3.2_osborncomments.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\6.5.8_osborncomments.doc" 2484. 2005-01-13 12:34:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: ambenje@meteo.go.ke date: Thu Jan 13 12:34:21 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Chapter submitted !!!! to: Kevin Trenberth , Kevin Trenberth , Peter Ambenje , Roxana Bojariu , David Easterling , David Parker , Fatemeh Rahimzadeh , Jim Renwick , Matilde Rusticucci , Brian Soden , Panmao Zhai , Albert Klein Tank Dear All, Subject title says it all really. I have lodged the chapter with WGI and I think this was the second one received. Chapter 7 seems to have something there. Maybe Kevin can find out if we were second as he's at the AMS (with Dave Easterling and David Parker) and Susan Solomon is there. I'd like to thank you all for your contributions and responding to emails over the last week regards to references. A particular thank you goes to Albert who spent much of last weekend checking the reference list with the text and vice versa. Any mistakes you spot are mine, though. I spent a few hours adding in reference details and although I hope I didn't make a mistake, I probably did. Albert and me also had to make a number of decisions on a,b etc for some references and to change some years between the text and references. Hopefully we got the majority right, but I would ask you all to check those in your section before we meet again in Beijing. As for the time between now and Beijing, I am going to forget about the draft for at least a month (unless I've screwed anything up in ftp'ing the draft to WGI) ! Kevin and I will be back in touch though during February as there are a number of outstanding issues that we need to follow up well before May. We'll be making a list and sending this around in due course. Getting better versions of many of the figures is one, for example, and you'll all see highlighted bits of text when you get your copy of the ZOD. The figures file I submitted had to go into two halves, so I could print it ! This is mainly due to 10 maps of trends of temperature and precipitation that NCDC have produced in the last couple of days. All I've had a chance to do with these is to add a paragraph of text in 3.2 and 3.3. I've emailed WGI to ask them to send back to both Kevin and me the version they put together for our reviewers. When we get this we'll send this around to all of you and also to the CAs. This way we'll all be working off the same copy, so we'll be able to know exactly where we are with pages and line numbers. Given the size of the ZOD I submitted, I suspect all we'll need to send you all is an ftp address. Once again thanks for all your efforts ! My life is my own again - for a while ! Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2852. 2005-01-13 12:57:08 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, drind@giss.nasa.gov, FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 12:57:08 -0500 from: David Rind subject: Re: 6.5.8 revisions to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim (and others), Thanks for your comments. I've looked at the suggested changes (in red on Tim's document) and I basically agree with them. I've incorporated them into the accompanying version. We cannot, however, avoid using the Late Maunder Minimum time period to assess climate sensitivity for a number of reasons, but primarily because so many people have tried doing it (as indicated by the references). In addition, it relates very strongly to two main topics of controversy: the possible importance of solar forcing (for which this period is the poster child), and the validity of the "hockey stick" reconstruction. I think the conclusion, that there is too much uncertainty to derive a meaningful result, is not a negative one - it's something that needs to be said, in the face of the tendency of some people to say the opposite. The only way to clearly show this is through the details as provided. With respect to "equilibrium climate" and the presence of volcanos: volcanic aerosols do not last long enough in the atmosphere (~one year residence time)to throw models significantly out of radiative balance when 50 year runs are being considered. Nor do they induce large ocean surface temperature changes, much less interaction with the deeper layers of the ocean which is what adds an unresolved cooling (or warming) and induces larger radiative imbalances. It is the latter component that is the chief difference between the transient simulations and equilibrium simulations for CO2 changes, for example. The only way that volcanos (or any climate forcing) can force the system out of radiative balance is to provide large and continuing trends (like is happening now); over this time period, none of the model simulations had that. (The other way is to have large forcing trends prior to this time period - and that's discussed in the following sentence in the text.) Anyway, to avoid confusion, I've removed the term equilibrium and now refer to radiative balance. [I assume the figures Tim referred to (and which I now refer to in the text) have been shown in Keith's section previously; they certainly should not be waiting for the end of this chapter to make their first appearance. It's not mandatory that they be referred to here, but if they already exist, it's useful to relate to them.] David At 4:19 PM +0000 1/13/05, Tim Osborn wrote: >At 23:50 12/01/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>Toward that end, I wonder if you two (or maybe just Tim if Keith is >>working more on 6.3.2.1) could read and comment/edit on: >> >>Section 6.4.3.2 -evaluation of transient model runs of the last millennium >> >>and >> >>Section 6.5.8 - synthesis of climate sensitivity issues >> >>Eystein and I are asking that you do this FAST because these >>sections must be compatible with your section 6.3.2.1 (and because >>you guys know as much as any about the material in these two other >>sections!). > >Dear Peck (plus cc to others - have I sent it to the appropriate people?), > >Keith and I have looked at these sections and the attached documents >contain my tracked changes. They seem to be compatible with Keith's >section and the figures. We've put in a couple of simple >cross-references to the figures from Keith's section. Plus some >minor changes. Plus some comments, particularly about the >section(d) of the climate sensitivity section. Keith expands upon >these latter comments with the following: > >-------------------- >It would be wise NOT to refer to the Maunder Minimum time period. >Anyway, 1675-1715 is (by most opinions) the LATE Maunder Minimum (an >accidental name that derives from the random non-availability of >documentary/paleo data for the earlier part of the period in some >[Swiss] study by Pfister and people). Up to then, MM was taken to >be 1645/50 to 1715. By using this terminology you divert objective >analysis of TOTAL forcing change (particularly given volcanic >uncertainty). > >The definition of "today" is also crucial as it affects (albeit not >precise) estimation of forcing changes from the earlier period. The >wider the comparison base, the more imprecise the estimates. The >narrower the base, the more you could argue about likely >non-equilibrium (see Tim's comment in attached document). > >The volcanic forcing likely means that the LMM is likely not in >equilibrium either! Nice if base period for estimates of changes >(forcings and temperatures) could be compatible with the base period >used in Figure 1). > >We will cross reference this section from ours. >-------------------- > >Cheers > >Tim and Keith > > >Attachment converted: Toltec:6.4.3.2_osborncomments.doc (WDBN/MSWD) (0008C15A) >Attachment converted: Toltec:6.5.8_osborncomments.doc (WDBN/MSWD) (0008C15B) >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\newest_6.5.8.doc" 4592. 2005-01-13 14:15:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: jay.lawrimore@noaa.gov date: Thu Jan 13 14:15:11 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: tmean figs to: "Byron Gleason" Byron, Thanks for these ! Thanks also for working way past your bedtime, if the time you sent this is correct ! All has been submitted to WGI now - spent most of my morning doing this. I feel as though I now have my life back, so many thanks again. I'm sure we'll have to revisit all this later, but for the time being I am going to try and forget the last 2 weeks. Both you and Jay are down as CAs for the chapter. We'll be sending the whole submitted draft once WGI have put all the parts together, so you'll get this in a week or two. Given the size of the figures it will probably be an ftp site link rather than email. This draft will be the ZOD and we'll all have the same one with the same line numbers and pages. Cheers Phil At 05:20 13/01/2005, Byron Gleason wrote: Phil, Attached in WORD format are the TMEAN figures. Jay provided me with the data files and they all ended in 2003, unlike the PRCP figures which had a few ending through 2004. My suspicion is that the data are indeed through 2004 (for those that apply), but the data file names may have just been misnamed. I'll double check with Jay Lawrimore in the morning ... for now they're all labeled exactly as they were given to me (e.g. all ending in 2003). The grey areas account for about 10% (rough eyeball estimate) of the data for both 1901 .. and 1979 .. maps. Also, the color bar was given to me by Kevin Trenberth. - Byron Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1844. 2005-01-13 14:39:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jan 13 14:39:25 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Peck your comments... to: jto@u.arizona.edu ...are really welcome. Am now incorporating them , plus doing some editorial bits - though will wait on Eystein to send replacement ocean bit . Having to get one of my people to do the references but not likely these will arrive til tomorrow. The main point to discuss is your comment on the MWP . I like the idea of a box. This IS sufficiently important to warrant it - in the context that most people say "it was warm/warmer than now then so disproves anthro effect - we should address this explicitly. I will have a go - but need to know how many words and Figure(s) allowed. We can simply just refer to this box in a couple of places in existing text. Sorry about Figures - now got some (2 ) borehole lines in (but may need more - reluctant to use Huang and Pollack original though because obviously much too cold on basis of simple regional averaging biases. Will send latest version (without box on MWP) tonight my time. Keith -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4157. 2005-01-13 15:35:47 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jan 13 15:35:47 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT: APOCALYPSE NO - ASSESSING to: "Mary Colwell" Mary, Here is the message with dates of the Met Office meeting and the skeptics day meeting in the week before. Cheers Phil X-Sender: f023@pop.uea.ac.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.0.6 Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 14:09:14 +0000 To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk From: Keith Briffa Subject: Fwd: CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT: APOCALYPSE NO - ASSESSING CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE Subject: CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT: APOCALYPSE NO - ASSESSING CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2005 12:49:22 -0000 X-MS-Has-Attach: yes X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: APOCALYPSE NO - ASSESSING CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE Thread-Index: AcT4pAkt/XcVesrxTuSUvlkQWh9nQgAAA2LQ From: "Peiser, Benny" To: "cambridge-conference" X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-UEA-MailScanner-SpamScore: s ole0.bmp Apocalypse No - Assessing catastrophic climate change A Scientific Alliance Conference Thursday 27th January 2005 9.00 until 13.00, followed by lunch until 14.00 Central London Venue Limited Number of Complimentary Tickets Available (see below) Is Global Warming a Cause for Alarm? Will Global Warming have a Catastrophic Impact? This timely conference is taking place in advance of the Met Offices Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research conference Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: A Scientific Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases, from 1-3 February. Apocalypse No - Assessing catastrophic climate change will raise awareness about the scientific uncertainties surrounding climate change theory and examine the science behind scenarios of catastrophic climate change. Speakers include: § Professor David Bellamy, OBE § Professor S. Fred Singer, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project § Professor Richard S. Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology § Professor Nils-Axel Mörner, Stockholm University § Dr Benny Peiser, Liverpool John Moores University § Conference Chair: Professor Sir Colin Berry, Queen Mary, University of London Attendance Fees: § Corporate: £75 + VAT (£88.13) § Public Sector / NGO: £50 + VAT (£58.75) § Scientific Alliance members rate: £25 + VAT (£29.38) There a limited number of complimentary tickets available for this conference. If you would like to apply for one, please email the Scientific Alliance at info@scientific-alliance.org subject: Climate Change Conference 27 January 2005, stating: § Your Name § Your Position and Organisation (if applicable) § Whether you wish to stay for lunch (if so, please state any special dietary requirements) Do bear in mind that numbers are limited and complimentary tickets will be allocated on a first come, first served basis; early registration is therefore advised. After all the complimentary tickets have been allocated, the opportunity to register for the conference as a paying participant will be offered. A confirmation email will be sent prior to the event, with full details including the detailed agenda and directions to the venue. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1191. 2005-01-13 16:09:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 16:09:33 -0000 from: "Andrew Watson" subject: UEA global environmental change lectures to: UEA GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE LECTURES 2005 Twelve distinguished and sometimes controversial speakers, five from UEA and seven from outside, will deliver "keynote addresses" on various aspects of Global change during January and February, starting next week (January 18th). The lecture series is a new addition to the final year undergraduate syllabus in environmental sciences, but the lectures are open to all. A full list with notes on the speakers, titles, places and times can be found at [1]http://www.uea.ac.uk/env/teaching/gec_lectures/ The speakers and titles are: Tue 18 Jan, 2pm: Kerry Turner, director of CSERGE, "Valuing nature: price tags versus deliberation." Wed 19 Jan, 11am: Mike Hulme, executive director of theTyndall Centre, "Can society adapt to climate change?" Tue 25 Jan, 2pm: Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, "Global change and Antarctica". Wed 26 Jan, 11am: Phil Dale, from the John Innes Centre, "The environmental impact of GM crops". Tue 1 Feb, 2pm: Tim Lenton, ENV: "From the past to the future". Wed 2 Feb, 11am: Andrew Watkinson, Tyndall centre, "Biodiversity and global change". Tue 8 Feb, 2pm: Peter Cox, of the Hadley Centre, "The natural carbon cycle in the 21st century" Wed 9 Feb, 10am: Lord Oxburgh, current chairman of Shell and a distinguished geologist, "People, resources and climate" Tue 15 Feb, 2pm: John Schellnhuber, Research director, Tyndall Centre, "The climate problem: diagnosis, prognosis, therapy". Wed 16 Feb, 10am: Bjorn Lomborg, University of Aarhus in Denmark, "The Skeptical Environmentalist" Tue 22 Feb, 2pm: Sir Crispin Tickell, former UK ambassador to the United Nations, "Sustainability: from the natural to the human world" Wed 23 Feb, 10am: Mike Childs, Campaign Co-ordinator of Friends of the Earth, "Environmental campaigns: science-based, or scaremongering?" Cheers Andy Watson School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia 3374. 2005-01-13 16:19:31 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen ,rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, drind@giss.nasa.gov,FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 16:19:31 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Need your help on something important to: Jonathan Overpeck ,Keith Briffa At 23:50 12/01/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >Toward that end, I wonder if you two (or maybe just Tim if Keith is >working more on 6.3.2.1) could read and comment/edit on: > >Section 6.4.3.2 -evaluation of transient model runs of the last millennium > >and > >Section 6.5.8 - synthesis of climate sensitivity issues > >Eystein and I are asking that you do this FAST because these sections must >be compatible with your section 6.3.2.1 (and because you guys know as much >as any about the material in these two other sections!). Dear Peck (plus cc to others - have I sent it to the appropriate people?), Keith and I have looked at these sections and the attached documents contain my tracked changes. They seem to be compatible with Keith's section and the figures. We've put in a couple of simple cross-references to the figures from Keith's section. Plus some minor changes. Plus some comments, particularly about the section(d) of the climate sensitivity section. Keith expands upon these latter comments with the following: -------------------- It would be wise NOT to refer to the Maunder Minimum time period. Anyway, 1675-1715 is (by most opinions) the LATE Maunder Minimum (an accidental name that derives from the random non-availability of documentary/paleo data for the earlier part of the period in some [Swiss] study by Pfister and people). Up to then, MM was taken to be 1645/50 to 1715. By using this terminology you divert objective analysis of TOTAL forcing change (particularly given volcanic uncertainty). The definition of "today" is also crucial as it affects (albeit not precise) estimation of forcing changes from the earlier period. The wider the comparison base, the more imprecise the estimates. The narrower the base, the more you could argue about likely non-equilibrium (see Tim's comment in attached document). The volcanic forcing likely means that the LMM is likely not in equilibrium either! Nice if base period for estimates of changes (forcings and temperatures) could be compatible with the base period used in Figure 1). We will cross reference this section from ours. -------------------- Cheers Tim and Keith Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\6.4.3.2_osborncomments.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\6.5.8_osborncomments.doc" Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 5109. 2005-01-13 17:00:26 ______________________________________________________ cc: David Rind , Tim Osborn , Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 17:00:26 -0500 from: David Rind subject: Re: 6.5.8 revisions to: Stefan Rahmstorf Here are my responses to Stefan's comments. While I could have made each of these points in the document itself, it is already sufficiently long that Jonathan had me cut it before most of you guys saw it. At 8:53 PM +0100 1/13/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: Hi folks, on the topic of climate sensitivity. I just lost a long mail on it due to a software crash, so sorry if I'm brief now. I think it makes no sense for the purpose of the IPCC to discuss a climate sensitivity to orbital forcing - if such a thing can be defined at all. The first-order idea of orbital forcing is that in annual global mean it is almost zero - and in any case the large effect orbital forcing has on climate has very little to do with its global mean value. Hence, we'll confuse people by discussing it in this way, and even citing numbers for it. For the purpose of IPCC, I think climate sensitvity should refer to climate sensitivity wrt. greenhouse gases. The point here is that climate can be forced by other factors than simply a global, annual average radiation change, which is the metric now being used. The orbital forcing induced changes are wonderful examples of this, hence the paleoclimate chapter is a perfect place to discuss it. Variations in seasonal and latitudinal forcing clearly have had a major impact on climate, including forcing of ice ages, yet the annual average radiative change is small. The importance of this with respect to IPCC is that other climate forcings can also affect the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of radiation - aerosols, land surface changes, and even solar radiation (considering cloud cover distributions) - hence they too may have a disproportionate influence compared to their annual global average magnitude. What is said in this subsection is simply that this one metric clearly fails with respect to the major variations in paleoclimate, and as a general rule, there should be room for an expanded concept (which may then have utility for current and future climate forcing as well). Also, it is questionable to discuss climate sensitivity for uncoupled models, especially for glacial times - Ganopolski et al. (Nature 1998) have shown that glacial climate looks very different with mixed layer ocean vs. coupled. I think for a 2007 IPCC report we shouldn't be discussing old uncoupled runs when coupled model results are available. (And it is a little odd that the above paper, the first coupled model simulation of glacial climate, cited over 150 times so far, is ignored here in the discussion of the last glacial maximum - if you do a search on the Google Scholar engine for the key words "Last Glacial Maximum", you'll find it's the second-most cited paper on this topic after the Petit et al. Vostok data paper.) In fact, most if not all of climate sensitivity measurements have been done for what Stefan calls "uncoupled models", atmospheric models coupled to mixed layer ocean models. The results from all prior IPCC reports give sensitivities from precisely these types of models - for the basic reason that almost no one has ever run a coupled model for 2CO2 to equilibrium. The other disadvantage of coupled models in this regard is that their control run, if simulated long enough, often does not reproduce the current climate in important respects - one is then getting a climate sensitivity with respect to something far removed from the current climate, so what good is it? The fact that models coupled to a dynamic ocean and those coupled to mixed layer oceans may get different responses - and one can see from the numbers that the responses are actually fairly similar in general - can be related to the ocean dynamics changes; as the text notes, that is considered a feedback in this subsection, and therefore an appropriate part of the climate sensitivity calculation. I still think it makes no sense to say that climate sensitivity depends on the sign of the forcing. Talking about greenhouse gases: whether you will do an experiment going from 280 ppm to 300 ppm, or the other way round from 300 ppm to 280 ppm, should give you the same climate sensitivity. Perhaps you mean that going from 280 to 300 will give a different result compared to going from 280 to 260, but then you're really comparing different mean climates. I think this "directionality" of climate sensitivity is not a good concept. It's not the forcing per se that's the issue here, it's the feedbacks that potentially can alter the climate sensitivity to the sign of the forcing. It has been suggested in the past that climate sensitivity is larger to cooling perturbations then to warming ones, and we ourselves have found that result in some earlier model runs. The standard reason given is that with a cooling climate perturbation, sea ice can expand further equatorward, to cover a broader area, and intersect more solar radiation - therefore providing a more positive feedback to the cooling. In a warming climate, the sea ice retreats and intersects less radiation - but the sunlight-weighted area is smaller in the regions it is retreating to, so its positive feedback to the warming is not as large. However - water vapor works the opposite way. Given the exponential dependence of water vapor on temperature, in a warming climate the added temperature would allow for a greater water vapor change (increase) than would occur with a cooling climate of the same magnitude. Hence the water vapor feedback should be greater in a warming climate. So the answer is - nobody knows. Jim Hansen did a survey of people at GISS recently to see what the general opinion was for a paper he's working on (and sending around). Since paleoclimates have suffered both positive and negative forcings (in the examples given in this section), and since we don't know the answer to this question, we can't really say whether the sign of the forcing is important or not. So I've left it as an open question, with the possibility that it might matter. Relating forcing to response, the sensitivity from the models is then on the order of 0.6°C/ Wm-2 (or higher, depending on the model used); the sensitivity from the observations, if taken at face value, would be considerably less. I still don't understand how you get this conclusion. This would mean: if you take models with those estimated forcings and run them, they should show a big mismatch with the proxy data. As far as I can tell from the diagram by Mike Mann attached, combining models and data, only the Von Storch simulation (not shown on this one) does show such a mismatch. (And that uses 1.5 times the Lean solar forcing.) If you look at the various model simulations done for this time period, the only way the models can reproduce the "observed" cooling relative to the present is by using only a subset of the forcings. When you use all the forcings, you get a much higher number. You can do the math yourself: with a "best-guess" radiative forcing change of 2.4Wm**-2, models with a sensitivity of 0.6C/Wm**-2 will get a temperature change of some 1.5C, which over the course of 300 years shows up in GCMs. For example: Cubasch et al (1997), using just solar forcing in the ECHAM 3 model came up with cooling of 0.5C; if you add a reasonable response to the approximately 1.5-2 W/m**2 forcing from trace gases plus aerosols, you get an additional 1C cooling (given the sensitivity stated above). Counteracting that could be land surface changes - but counteracting that are undoubtedly the reduced pre-industrial tropospheric ozone, plus any additional volcanic cooling (a la Crowley). So assuming those sort of cancel, we have a 1.5C cooling for the MM time period from solar plus anthropogenic, similar to what we get in the GISS model (as noted in our 2004 paper). That can be compared with the Mann et al reconstruction - and you can see from your figure that for the 1700 time period relative to the 1990s, the cooling is about 0.5C. Similarly, Fischer-Bruns et al. (2002) with the ECHAM 4 model, using solar forcing of -0.1% for the MM, and volcanic forcing greater than today (like Crowley) got a cooling of 1.2C. The Zorita et al study also got a large magnitude cooling when using all the forcings. BTW, neither ECHAM 3 nor ECHAM 4 has a large climate sensitivity - it is of the order of 0.6C/Wm-2, as referred to in the comment above. Note that none of these models are shown in your accompanying figure, and all are GCM studies. How did the Crowley and Bauer studies that are shown in the figure (using EB or EMIC models) get the smaller cooling magnitudes indicated there? Only by using a subset of the forcings - Crowley basically threw out the solar changes (and had a lower sensitivity model), Bauer et al. used a large aerosol effect and still needed a large deforestation warming to bring her results in line with the Mann et al. reconstruction (in fact, it was done specifically for that reason). None of these runs used the tropospheric ozone reduction that we have evidence did occur. My impression is that these studies took the observations as given and were asking the question of what forcings would be needed to reproduce them. That is an interesting question, but it obviously does not validate the observations. The specific comment you refer to above relates to the discussion in the previous paragraphs, which detail the radiative forcings and all the different model responses. It is a fair representation of the current status, however unsettling that is. But in the current incarnation of this subsection, we do not use it to imply a low climate sensitivity - we simply say that given the uncertainties in forcing and response, we cannot use this time period to better understand climate sensitivity. And I think that's accurate. David -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 329. 2005-01-13 17:06:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 17:06:58 -0500 from: Henry Pollack subject: Re: near final 6.3.2.1 to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, Thanks for the latest version, which in the borehole discussion differs notably from the earlier version you sent, presumably due to comments from others. Because I am traveling again (leave Friday, back on Tuesday), I will send only a few general comments today, in no particular order. 1. Figure 1b, as discussed on pp.1,2 . This figure shows borehole results, and 'pseudo' borehole results, but the borehole curves are never mentioned explicitly in the text. The pseudo borehole results are the so-called 'optimal' results of Mann. Mike has never analyzed borehole temperatures; he simply manipulated reconstructions that I sent him, in a manner that dealt with spatial noise in a totally inadequate way. I think it is inappropriate to show the so-called 'optimal' reconstruction because it is flawed (even after the correction of gridding errors); the gridded curve should be the one shown in Pollack & Smerdon 2004, not the Briffa and Osborn 2002. Tim has told me of how that was constructed, and the P&S 04 version should be substituted. 2. Your discussion of uncertainty on pages 4,5 is good. The paragraph following acknowledges that there is generally greater centennial-scale variability in the ensemble of reconstructions than is displayed in the hockey stick. I think the hockey stick is effectively an end-member reconstruction, rather than a 'centrist' whose uncertainty bounds encompass all other reconstructions. 3. The statistical efforts (yours, others) to retain more long period variability in the dendro series have led to greater variability in the reconstructions, all toward a cooler past in the 16th-17th centuries. There is no a priori reason that the improved dendro series should have led to a cooler past; retention of more long period variability might conceivably have led to a warmer past, but it did not. That makes me think that the 16th-17th centuries were indeed cooler than the hockey stick portrays. 4. page 7. The Von Storch, Zorita model results suggest that the regression reconstruction techniques do not extract signals well in the presence of noise. There is a new paper soon to be submitted by Tom Crowley, Gabi Hegerl et al that reaches a similar conclusion. I believe that this is an important issue, one that is at the heart of my criticism of how Mike Mann re-analyzed the borehole results. May I suggest that in the FOD (first order draft) that you include a discussion of field reconstruction methodologies, particularly as to how they fare in the presence of noise. This would compare and contrast the regression techniques, the von Storch approach, the Crowley approach, the revised Rutherford Mann (2005)methodology, and perhaps the wavelet approach that Anders Moberg has proposed. I do not think that the problem that you cite in the last paragraph on p.7 is strictly with the particular simulation of Von Storch. The same general conclusions are reached in the new Crowley, Hegerl paper, which use different inputs. 5. It is not clear what you are saying on p.8, 3rd paragraph when you say that the GST histories imply a very much higher level of 'recent' warmth when compared to the general picture of proxy reconstructions. If 'recent' means the period of the instrumental record, the GST reconstructions compare very well, and if anything are a little muted. Moreover, both the von Storch and the new Crowley results show a very good overlap in the 17th century of borehole reconstructions with proxy reconstructions that use non-regression reconstruction methods. 6.GCM simulations are new players in the reconstruction arena. The work of Von Storch, Simon Tett, Caspar Ammann are examples. I think a discussion of how these are being integrated into the historical debate would be useful. You make the point that there are few new proxy data since the TAR. But what is new are the methods of reconstructing the climate field , and the role of the GCMs in testing certain methodologies with pseudo-proxies. The field has come quite a way from what is in the TAR, but your summary seems to convey the feeling that little has changed. 7. I am not offering any comments on the rest of the material (hydrological, etc.), as I have not had time to digest it yet. Thanks for the opportunity to comment! The comments are offered in the most constructive of spirit. You have undertaken a task of which I have not the slightest of envy. I am confident that the final product will be fair and balanced. Please let me know the time frame of when this document will undergo further shaping and refinement. I am grateful to have had the opportunity to participate. Cheers, Henry ___ ___ Henry N. Pollack [ \ / ] Professor of Geophysics | \/ | Department of Geological Sciences |MICHIGAN| University of Michigan [___]\/[___] Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1063, U.S.A. Phone: 734-763-0084 FAX: 734-763-4690 e-mail: hpollack@umich.edu URL: http://www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~hpollack URL: www-personal.umich.edu/~hpollack/book.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Quoting Keith Briffa : > > Henry > latest version and would appreciate comments > Keith > >> -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2715. 2005-01-13 19:15:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 19:15:25 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: comments on Briffa, last millennium to: Keith Briffa Dear Keith, you've done a great job on the touchy subject of the last millennium, which is central to our whole chapter. My comments to that are threefold: (1) If you could shorten the text somewhat, it could become more powerful (2) Some small edits & comments are in the attached doc (3) I propose some improvements to the figures as follows. - Fig 1a the land temps seem to go off plot, temperature scale needs to be extended - we need a break between panels a and the rest, since it's a different time scale on the x axis - Fig 1c also has one curve going off the top - Panels 1b-d might run the time axis up to 2010 or so, else the important rise at the end is hidden in the tick-marks and less obvious than it should be - the legends need to say what the baseline period (zero line of y-axis) is (hard to find this in the axis label) - this baseline should be the same for all curves, i.e. 1961-1990. Fig 2d says 1901-1960 - it's not ideal to have a different one, as compared to Fig 1. Also, is it true? Surely the Storch curve is not shown relative to this baseline, it's way above it. Aligning it like this could lead to the dangerous misunderstanding that Storch suggests a much warmer medieval time compared to everyone else, which of course is not the case. I hope this helps. Cheers, Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Briffa_ed_sr .doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\goosse_et_al_2005.pdf" 3464. 2005-01-13 20:53:13 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tim Osborn , Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 20:53:13 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: 6.5.8 revisions to: David Rind Hi folks, on the topic of climate sensitivity. I just lost a long mail on it due to a software crash, so sorry if I'm brief now. I think it makes no sense for the purpose of the IPCC to discuss a climate sensitivity to orbital forcing - if such a thing can be defined at all. The first-order idea of orbital forcing is that in annual global mean it is almost zero - and in any case the large effect orbital forcing has on climate has very little to do with its global mean value. Hence, we'll confuse people by discussing it in this way, and even citing numbers for it. For the purpose of IPCC, I think climate sensitvity should refer to climate sensitivity wrt. greenhouse gases. Also, it is questionable to discuss climate sensitivity for uncoupled models, especially for glacial times - Ganopolski et al. (Nature 1998) have shown that glacial climate looks very different with mixed layer ocean vs. coupled. I think for a 2007 IPCC report we shouldn't be discussing old uncoupled runs when coupled model results are available. (And it is a little odd that the above paper, the first coupled model simulation of glacial climate, cited over 150 times so far, is ignored here in the discussion of the last glacial maximum - if you do a search on the Google Scholar engine for the key words "Last Glacial Maximum", you'll find it's the second-most cited paper on this topic after the Petit et al. Vostok data paper.) I still think it makes no sense to say that climate sensitivity depends on the sign of the forcing. Talking about greenhouse gases: whether you will do an experiment going from 280 ppm to 300 ppm, or the other way round from 300 ppm to 280 ppm, should give you the same climate sensitivity. Perhaps you mean that going from 280 to 300 will give a different result compared to going from 280 to 260, but then you're really comparing different mean climates. I think this "directionality" of climate sensitivity is not a good concept. Relating forcing to response, the sensitivity from the models is then on the order of 0.6°C/ Wm^-2 (or higher, depending on the model used); the sensitivity from the observations, if taken at face value, would be considerably less. I still don't understand how you get this conclusion. This would mean: if you take models with those estimated forcings and run them, they should show a big mismatch with the proxy data. As far as I can tell from the diagram by Mike Mann attached, combining models and data, only the Von Storch simulation (not shown on this one) does show such a mismatch. (And that uses 1.5 times the Lean solar forcing.) Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf [1]www.ozean-klima.de [2]www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\millennium.jpg" 1462. 2005-01-13 21:45:38 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Valerie Masson-Delmotte date: Thu, 13 Jan 2005 21:45:38 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: the new "warm period myths" box to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hi Keith and Tim - since you're off the 6.2.2 hook until Eystein hangs you back up on it, you have more time to focus on that new Box. In reading Valerie's Holocene section, I get the sense that I'm not the only one who would like to deal a mortal blow to the misuse of supposed warm period terms and myths in the literature. The sceptics and uninformed love to cite these periods as natural analogs for current warming too - pure rubbish. So, pls DO try hard to follow up on my advice provided in previous email. No need to go into details on any but the MWP, but good to mention the others in the same dismissive effort. "Holocene Thermal Maximum" is another one that should only be used with care, and with the explicit knowledge that it was a time-transgressive event totally unlike the recent global warming. Thanks for doing this on - if you have a cool figure idea, include it. Best, peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 1891. 2005-01-14 09:31:33 ______________________________________________________ cc: cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, joos date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 09:31:33 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: 6.5.8 on climate sensitivity and last millennium to: Stefan Rahmstorf Dear David and Stefan and Co - Thanks Stefan - you raise some good points. The time going forward suggestion is good, and I think crafting the prose more carefully in other areas is good too. We DO have to be careful about misrepresentation of what we say, and have to anticipate what could happen in order to word it so it won't happen. David, can you take these into account for what will be the final ZOD 6.5.8? I'm sure there will be more later, but not before ZOD unless others get you comments before you're done with this revision. Thanks, Peck Hi friends, I'm not working on this topic myself so I'm by no means an expert. But I am still quite concerned with the wording in 6.5.8 on the last millennium. First, to avoid misunderstandings, I would like to suggest again to describe forcings and climate changes going forward in time, rather than going backwards in time. Even colleagues here that I discuss it with misunderstand the present version with backwards reasoning - it leads to phrases like "deforestation warming" (used by David in his last mail), although deforestation caused cooling - backwards in time you can see this as a warming, but should you call it "afforestation warming" if you look back in time? I suggest to use the physical, forwards, time arrow in the discussion. The section states: If one takes mid-range estimates of solar and anthropogenic forcings, and assumes that volcanic, tropospheric ozone and land albedo changes cancel out, the resulting radiative forcing change is ~-2.4 Wm-2. I don't think we should give a "mid-range" of the forcing like this; the assumption that ozone, land albedo and volcanic changes cancel is hard to justify in any case. For the forcing we need to give a range in my opinion, not one number. If we give a range, it will become clear that the forcing is too uncertain for drawing conclusions on climate sensitivity from this time period. The section contains the sentence: Relating forcing to response, the sensitivity from the models is then on the order of 0.6°C/ Wm-2 (or higher, depending on the model used); the sensitivity from the observations, if taken at face value, would be considerably less. Although this was toned down quite a bit, it still sounds like we can say that observations suggest a considerably smaller climate sensitivity compared to models. Skeptics will trumpet this sentence around the world. And I don't think we can justify such a statement. I agree that apparently models have not used all forcings. But I think it is not as clear-cut as you say that they would come to much larger temperature change as compared to the data if they did. I talked to Martin Claussen, co-author of the Bauer et al. paper, as he works on this period. Martin strongly disagrees with your statement Bauer et al. used a large aerosol effect and still needed a large deforestation warming to bring her results in line with the Mann et al. reconstruction (in fact, it was done specifically for that reason) The GHG, deforestation and orbital forcings are the known forcings, while solar and volcanic aerosols rely on uncertain proxy reconstructions. To cover this uncertainty, Bauer et al. did a sensitivity study and used different plausible scenarios, e.g., 0.24% and 0.32 % for solar change and a couple of scenarios for volcanic forcing, and they discuss the results of all those. I agree that for 2.4 W/m2 with best guess climate sensitivity you get 1.5 ºC in equilibrium - but much of this forcing is due to a rapid rise in the 20th Century, and the climate is not in equilibrium with that - transient runs suggest that only 1/2 to 2/3 of the equilibrium warming is realised (here the "looking back in time" issue is again a possible source of misunderstanding - it is of lesser concern whether the MM is in equilibrium, but rather to what extent the present is). That gets you down to below 1 ºC from the 1.5 ºC equilibrium value. Then you state the Mann et al. data are 0.5 ºC below the 1990s in the Maunder Minimum. I can see they are 0.4 ºC below the reference level (I believe this is 1961-1990). The mean of the 1990s is 0.3 ºC above this level (I calculated this from the Jones data) - so I find that the Mann data are in fact 0.7 ºC below the 1990s in the MM. The difference between model expectation for 2.4 W/m2 and the actual found in the Mann data is almost gone then. Add to that the possibility that the Mann data may somewhat understimate the variability, and I do not see any significant discrepancy between models and data, which we should mention and which we could defend as real - even for "best guess" sensitivity and forcing, let alone considering the uncertainty in those. Cheers, Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf [1]www.ozean-klima.de [2]www.realclimate.org -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 5255. 2005-01-14 11:15:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 14 11:15:38 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: climatic change papers to: Ricardo Ricardo, Thanks for the update on CC. The zeroth-order draft won't be available for general review. The first order draft will in the late summer. However, is you email me in 3-4 weeks time, I'll see if I have a can send you anything. I'm doing the Atmos. Obs. chapter, while Keith is doing the paleo one. My chapter has gone off - deadline for submission is today. Keith is still working on the paleo one. An EU paleo IP went off in October and it got past the first round. Proposal will be called IMPRINT. Keith says it may be worth contacting someone called Gerardo Benito who is in Madrid. He's involved in IMPRINT. Cheers Phil At 09:08 14/01/2005, you wrote: Phil: i can imagine how busy you have been. Your paper is being managed directly by Schneider, since you will be one of the inivited editors. The delay is mostly attibutable to him. Up to now only three papers have benn completed, because their delay in provoding asnwers to the authors. Please let me now when the IPCC material is available to get a copy. Juerg asked some contribution and I have written a few sentences. By the way, do you know if Keith Briffa is still planning to apply for an EU project and sif he should be interested in our collaboration? Best regards ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------- Ricardo García Herrera Dto. Física de la Tierra II Facultad de Ciencias Físicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid Ciudad Universitaria 28040 Madrid, Spain [1]rgarciah@fis.ucm.es [2]rgarcia@6000aire.fis.ucm.es phone: (34)913944490 fax: (34)913945195 ----- Original Message ----- From: [3]Phil Jones To: [4]Ricardo Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2005 2:34 PM Subject: Re: climatic change papers Ricardo, I've been snowed under with IPCC work which should finish tomorrow. It has to by Friday as the draft has to be sent then. There is a reference to CLIWOC work in it, albeit brief. I was reminded about the special issue by an email from Rodrigo Abarca del Rio from the Concepion in Chile. I will answer him when I have some time. In the meantime, I got comments on the paper from Jurg Luterbacher some months ago as he was a reviewer for Climatic Change. I have incorporated all his comments into the draft, but I've not yet received the official reviews of the paper with Mike Salmon. I don't want you to think I am slowing things up. I will be travelling quite a bit soon, so I hope they come soon. Hope all is well with you and you had a good break for the festiviities. Cheers Phil At 10:54 16/12/2004, you wrote: Dear Frits, I have emailed Katarina Kievel several times and I always get the same answer, Dr Schenider must still produce the letters and them to the authors. I'm sorry, but this all I can make since Gunther, Dennis and Phil are acting as coeditors, I cannot manage the papers where they are involved. Anyaway, I have received the review for paper 2 and we are producing the final version of this paper. I'll send it to the coauthors tomorrow, before sending it to Scheneider. I', sorry, But I cannot make anything else. best regards ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------ Ricardo García Herrera Dto. Física de la Tierra II Facultad de Ciencias Físicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid Ciudad Universitaria 28040 Madrid, Spain [5]rgarciah@fis.ucm.es [6]rgarcia@6000aire.fis.ucm.es phone: (34)913944490 fax: (34)913945195 ----- Original Message ----- From: [7]Frits B. Koek To: [8]Ricardo Sent: Thursday, December 16, 2004 11:04 AM Subject: Re: climatic change papers Dear Ricardo, Still no sign (mail, email, fax, telephone call, etc.) from Clim. Change. Are they still there? Best regards, Frits Ricardo wrote: Dear all, I have urged S. Scheneider to provide letters with the reviwers comments to your papers. Apparently you should receive them shortly...... Best regards ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------ Ricardo García Herrera Dto. Física de la Tierra II Facultad de Ciencias Físicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid Ciudad Universitaria 28040 Madrid, Spain [9]rgarciah@fis.ucm.es [10]rgarcia@6000aire.fis.ucm.es phone: (34)913944490 fax: (34)913945195 -------------------------------------------------------------- Zie ook/see also: [11]http://www.knmi.nl/maildisclaimer.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2443. 2005-01-14 12:20:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tim Osborn , Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 12:20:47 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: 6.5.8 revisions to: David Rind Hi David, thanks for the detailed response. I'll try to be brief. On the orbital forcing you write: The point here is that climate can be forced by other factors than simply a global, annual average radiation change, which is the metric now being used. I think we all agree on this point. My concern is only about how to present it in the section. I think that giving a climate sensitivity wrt. global mean orbital forcing is confusing to the uninitiated, e.g. your statement in the section: This high climate sensitivity (2°C/ Wm^-2) is occurring in an atmospheric model (ECHAM-1) whose sensitivity to doubled CO[2] is about 0.6°C/Wm^-2. I really think we should not give a number like 2°C/ Wm^-2 as "climate sensitivity" to global-mean orbital forcing and contrast it to that to doubled CO2. It gives out the message to people that climate sensitivity is all over the place and ill defined. That's not the case. Climate sensitivity is a well-defined concept for a globally uniform forcing like CO2 forcing, but nobody expects any clear relation between the global mean part of orbital forcing and the climate response. On uncoupled models: I agree that for 2xCO2 runs, you will get very similar climate sensitivity with uncoupled and coupled models, because there is no large change in ocean heat transport between equilibrium 1x and 2x CO2 states (as confirmed by doing this in coupled models). The mixed layer boundary condition used in the uncoupled models simply assumes a fixed, prescribed ocean heat transport, which turns out to be a valid approximation in this case. My concern was and is specific to the discussion for LGM climate, where this is not a valid approximation, as we know both from proxy data and from model results that ocean circulation and heat transport was very likely quite different in the LGM compared to today. In our Nature 98 LGM simulation, we get 50% difference in the response of the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, between the uncoupled "mixed layer" experiment and the one that includes the ocean model. 50% is a first-order difference, and hence I think that all the evidence we have today, points to the "constant heat transport" approximation breaking down when applied to the LGM. The IPCC report should not draw conclusions about climate sensitivity from LGM experiments that have made this approximation, as I think those would be hard to defend. I must say I'm starting to get a little concerned about the chapter discussing 1980s papers for no other apparent reason then them being authored by Rind, while leaving out important more recent, widely recognised advances in the field. I attach the Schneider et al. paper I announced earlier, submitted to Science today and arguable the most comprehense study on deriving climate sensitivity from LGM data constraints that has been done so far. On the directionality of the cimate sensitivity: of course I understand the reasons, the ice feedback and water vapor feedback etc., I've written about those myself in the past - again this is only a difference in how best to present the same, undisputed facts. You make the argument that when going to a colder climate, sensitivity is different from when going to a warmer climate. That is undisputed. But that in my view has nothing to do with the "direction" of the experiment, but with the fact that sensitivity in a colder climate is different from sensitivity in a warmer climate. I explained with the ppm example because I thought that's simple. A "directionality" would be, if going from 280 to 300 ppm would give a different equilibrium response compared to going from 300 to 280. But that's not what you're talking about. Your talking about going from 280 to 260 (say), as compared to going from 280 to 300. That of course gives different results, because the difference 280-260 applies to a colder climate than the difference 300-280 (no matter in which "direction" you derive this). Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf [1]www.ozean-klima.de [2]www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\schneider_jan05.pdf" 4686. 2005-01-14 14:23:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: David Rind , Tim Osborn , Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 14:23:47 -0500 from: David Rind subject: Re: 6.5.8 on climate sensitivity and last millennium to: Stefan Rahmstorf Here are my responses to the comments concerning 6.5.8d. With respect to Stefan's main concern: I too am sensitive to the possible mis-use of words that appear in a cavalier manner in the text. I think the way to avoid that is to be as precise as possible about what is being said. I also feel that hand-waving should be minimized - just because there are uncertainties, does not mean IPCC will throw up its hands. Thus the attempt to quantify these numbers are precisely as they will be done in other IPCC chapters. Again, the responses are in red, and the text alterations (or in this case, some entire text) are in blue. I'm not working on this topic myself so I'm by no means an expert. But I am still quite concerned with the wording in 6.5.8 on the last millennium. First, to avoid misunderstandings, I would like to suggest again to describe forcings and climate changes going forward in time, rather than going backwards in time. Even colleagues here that I discuss it with misunderstand the present version with backwards reasoning - it leads to phrases like "deforestation warming" (used by David in his last mail), although deforestation caused cooling - backwards in time you can see this as a warming, but should you call it "afforestation warming" if you look back in time? I suggest to use the physical, forwards, time arrow in the discussion. In all the other sections of 6.5.8 we discuss the temperature change and the radiative forcing relative to the present - when it was colder than the present, the temperatures were indicated to be colder, and the radiative forcing more negative. To alter that for this section alone would cause added confusion. I have therefore in each case tried to make it perfectly clear what is being said. In particular, I agree that in the case of deforestation the terminology does become confusing so the text has been changed to be more communicative; it now reads, Warming of 0.35°C due to the existence of vegetation and forests that have since been cut down was found by (Bauer et al., 2003) ... The section states: If one takes mid-range estimates of solar and anthropogenic forcings, and assumes that volcanic, tropospheric ozone and land albedo changes cancel out, the resulting radiative forcing change is ~-2.4 Wm-2. I don't think we should give a "mid-range" of the forcing like this; the assumption that ozone, land albedo and volcanic changes cancel is hard to justify in any case. For the forcing we need to give a range in my opinion, not one number. If we give a range, it will become clear that the forcing is too uncertain for drawing conclusions on climate sensitivity from this time period. The problem with giving a maximum range for this time period is the same as giving one for the 20th century - the inclusion of the potential indirect effects of aerosols means you can wipe out all climate forcing entirely. It becomes a 'reductio aud absurdum'. The issue in particular for the Late Maunder Minimum time period, and the specific reason for including it, is that it potentially says something about SOLAR forcing. In writing this section, we are not simply doing a core dump of everything people have done, we are supposed to use our brains to assess the likely situation. Having already provided the range of uncertainty,we can give a 'best estimate' for the various forcings that we can use in a meaningful way if we are careful - and which show the importance of the uncertainty in the solar forcing. I do agree that what existed in the text especially for the third paragraph needed improvement. Therefore, after several talks with people here, I've altered (especially) the first and third paragraphs accordingly. Rather than just stating the conclusion that climate sensitivity can't be well defined, the paragraphs now show quantitatively that is the case. The specificity, I believe, gives people a real feeling for the uncertainties, and in the way it is done here, especially the uncertainty in the solar forcing and actual climate response. (This rewrite obviates the need for a direct response to several of Stefan's other comments.) (d)Last 1000 years We concentrate here on the Late Maunder Minimum time period in which sunspots were generally missing (approximately 1675-1715), but outside of the estimated solar irradiance change, the discussion is applicable for the pre-industrial climate in general. The primary forcings relative to today are (1) a decrease in various greenhouse gases, with a forcing of approximately -2.4±0.25 Wm-2 (not including tropospheric ozone changes); (2) reduced tropospheric sulfate aerosols, whose direct effect is estimated by IPCC (2001) as +0.4±0.3 Wm-2 with an indirect effect ranging from +0.5 to +2 Wm-2 (3) a solar forcing reduction estimated as ranging from -0.12 to -1.56 Wm-2 (0.05% to 0.65%) ((Hoyt and Schatten, 1993);(Lean, 2000);(Foukal and Milano, 2001); (Reid, 1997)); and (4) volcanic aerosol forcing either similar to today ((Robertson, 2001)), lower than today ((Robock and Free, 1996)), or higher ((Crowley, 2000)). Large uncertainties therefore exist for all of the forcings except the trace gas values (again excluding tropospheric ozone). The cooling effects are offset to small degree by land albedo changes, estimated to contribute +0.4 Wm-2 ((Hansen et al., 1998)). Reduced tropospheric ozone has been estimated to cause an additional forcing of -0.3 to -0.8Wm-2 (Mickley et al., 2001), while increased stratospheric ozone produced a positive forcing of -0.09 to -0.25 Wm-2 (IPCC, 2001). If one takes the most widely used or mid-range estimates of solar (-0.5 Wm-2 from (Lean, 2000)) and anthropogenic forcings (-2.4Wm-2 from reduced trace gases, other than tropospheric ozone; +0.5 Wm-2 from reduced sulfate aerosols), land albedo changes (0.4 Wm-2), decreased tropospheric ozone (-0.35 Wm-2 (IPCC, 2001)) and increased stratospheric ozone (+0.15 Wm-2 (IPCC, 2001)), the net radiative forcing for this time is estimated as -2.2 Wm-2. [For this exercise we ignore the effects of volcanoes, the indirect effects of sulfate aerosols, and the effects of carbon and organic aerosols.]. Including these additional components (except for volcanic aerosols for which even the sign of the change is not well know), Hansen (personal communication) calculates a value close to -2 Wm-2. How cold was this time period? Different reconstructions (Fig. X1) provide different estimates of cooling, ranging from -0.45°C ((Mann et al., 1999), annual value for the Northern Hemisphere), to about -0.7°C ((Esper et al., 2002)for 20-90°N in the growing season, and (Briffa and Osborne, 2002)(from borehole temperature records). Model studies (Fig. X2) for this time period have generally employed significant solar reductions (-0.2% to -0.4%), which by themselves have resulted in cooling of about -0.5°C ((Cubasch et al., 1997);(Bauer et al., 2003);(Rind et al., 2004)). Utilizing a forcing of -1.5 to -2 Wm-2 from the combined influence of preindustrial trace gases and aerosols results in additional cooling of about -1 to -1.5°C ((Fischer-Bruns et al., 2002);(Rind et al., 2004);(Zorita et al., 2004)). If volcanic aerosols were actually more extensive during this time period, then additional cooling would arise from this factor as well (on the order of -0.4°C found by (Hegerl et al., 2003)using the (Crowley, 2000)reconstruction). Warming of 0.35°C due to the existence of vegetation and forests that have since been cut down was found by (Bauer et al., 2003), on the same order but of opposite sign to the tropospheric ozone forcing (Mickley et al., 2004). Adding these effects from model simulations together produces a total cooling on the order of -1 to -1.5°C or greater, significantly larger than any of the paleo-estimates. For the ~50 year time period associated with the Maunder Minimum, without large forcing trends, the model results are essentially in radiative balance, and while the influence of past solar variations could still be in acting, in at least one study they were shown to be unimportant (Rind et al., 2004). The climate sensitivity from the GCMs used for these studies in on the order of 0.6°C/ Wm-2 (or higher, depending on the model used). To calculate the sensitivity from the observations, we first use the estimated forcing of -2.2 Wm-2 and recognize that ~0.85 Wm-2 of this is unresolved (Hansen, personal communication) due to the rapid trace gas changes of the last few decades. Therefore, only 1.35 Wm-2 of the radiative forcing should have been expressed in the system. Were this to have resulted in a temperature change of about -0.5°C (as in the Mann et al reconstruction), it would imply a climate sensitivity of 0.37 Wm-2, i.e. at the low end of the IPCC range for doubled CO2 response. Using the higher estimated cooling of -0.7°C results in a climate sensitivity of 0.52 Wm-2. Alternatively, if the uncertain solar forcing change was at the estimated minimal value (-0.12 Wm-2), then the radiative forcing change would be reduced accordingly, and climate sensitivity for the two reconstructions increases to 0.5 Wm-2 and 0.7 Wm-2 (near 3°C for doubled CO2) respectively, for the different temperature reconstructions. This exercise can be carried on ad infinitum; considering the actual uncertainty in many of the forcings, and in the actual temperature response of the climate system, we conclude that we cannot properly constrain climate sensitivity for this time period (and to some extent the results are similar for other preindustrial time periods compared to the present). As an aside: if one uses the minimal estimate of solar forcing in the example presented, one gets a range of temperature response to 2xCO2 of 2-3°C, not too much different from that concluded in the paper Stefan just sent around (which was 2.5 to 3C). Then you state the Mann et al. data are 0.5 ºC below the 1990s in the Maunder Minimum. I can see they are 0.4 ºC below the reference level (I believe this is 1961-1990). The mean of the 1990s is 0.3 ºC above this level (I calculated this from the Jones data) - so I find that the Mann data are in fact 0.7 ºC below the 1990s in the MM. The difference between model expectation for 2.4 W/m2 and the actual found in the Mann data is almost gone then. Add to that the possibility that the Mann data may somewhat understimate the variability, and I do not see any significant discrepancy between models and data, which we should mention and which we could defend as real - even for "best guess" sensitivity and forcing, let alone considering the uncertainty in those. The easiest way to see this is to note that the Mann et al reconstruction has the late 1600s slightly warmer than the late 1800s. It is widely acknowledged that the late 1800s were 0.6C colder than today (taking into account the heat island effect) (and the radiative forcings, a la IPCC 2001, are all with respect to the 1990s.) That puts the late 1600s at less than 0.6C colder, close to the value indicated in the text. David -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 1850. 2005-01-14 14:32:51 ______________________________________________________ cc: David Rind , Jonathan Overpeck , wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu, Tim Osborn date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 14:32:51 -0500 from: David Rind subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Figures and Executive Summary Bullets to: Stefan Rahmstorf Consistent with my previous responses to Stefan, I prefer to keep the bullets for 6.5.8 as they were, except for changing the words in the last bullet to read: and models are generally consistent with the range David At 4:55 PM +0100 1/14/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: Hi friends, here are some suggested edits to the bullets. Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org Attachment converted: Toltec:Bullets_for_6.5.8.doc (WDBN/MSWD) (0008C577) -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 4644. 2005-01-14 16:26:52 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tim Osborn , Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , FortunatJoos@email.arizona.edu date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 16:26:52 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: 6.5.8 on climate sensitivity and last millennium to: David Rind Hi friends, I'm not working on this topic myself so I'm by no means an expert. But I am still quite concerned with the wording in 6.5.8 on the last millennium. First, to avoid misunderstandings, I would like to suggest again to describe forcings and climate changes going forward in time, rather than going backwards in time. Even colleagues here that I discuss it with misunderstand the present version with backwards reasoning - it leads to phrases like "deforestation warming" (used by David in his last mail), although deforestation caused cooling - backwards in time you can see this as a warming, but should you call it "afforestation warming" if you look back in time? I suggest to use the physical, forwards, time arrow in the discussion. The section states: If one takes mid-range estimates of solar and anthropogenic forcings, and assumes that volcanic, tropospheric ozone and land albedo changes cancel out, the resulting radiative forcing change is ~-2.4 Wm^-2. I don't think we should give a "mid-range" of the forcing like this; the assumption that ozone, land albedo and volcanic changes cancel is hard to justify in any case. For the forcing we need to give a range in my opinion, not one number. If we give a range, it will become clear that the forcing is too uncertain for drawing conclusions on climate sensitivity from this time period. The section contains the sentence: Relating forcing to response, the sensitivity from the models is then on the order of 0.6°C/ Wm^-2 (or higher, depending on the model used); the sensitivity from the observations, if taken at face value, would be considerably less. Although this was toned down quite a bit, it still sounds like we can say that observations suggest a considerably smaller climate sensitivity compared to models. Skeptics will trumpet this sentence around the world. And I don't think we can justify such a statement. I agree that apparently models have not used all forcings. But I think it is not as clear-cut as you say that they would come to much larger temperature change as compared to the data if they did. I talked to Martin Claussen, co-author of the Bauer et al. paper, as he works on this period. Martin strongly disagrees with your statement Bauer et al. used a large aerosol effect and still needed a large deforestation warming to bring her results in line with the Mann et al. reconstruction (in fact, it was done specifically for that reason) The GHG, deforestation and orbital forcings are the known forcings, while solar and volcanic aerosols rely on uncertain proxy reconstructions. To cover this uncertainty, Bauer et al. did a sensitivity study and used different plausible scenarios, e.g., 0.24% and 0.32 % for solar change and a couple of scenarios for volcanic forcing, and they discuss the results of all those. I agree that for 2.4 W/m2 with best guess climate sensitivity you get 1.5 ºC in equilibrium - but much of this forcing is due to a rapid rise in the 20th Century, and the climate is not in equilibrium with that - transient runs suggest that only 1/2 to 2/3 of the equilibrium warming is realised (here the "looking back in time" issue is again a possible source of misunderstanding - it is of lesser concern whether the MM is in equilibrium, but rather to what extent the present is). That gets you down to below 1 ºC from the 1.5 ºC equilibrium value. Then you state the Mann et al. data are 0.5 ºC below the 1990s in the Maunder Minimum. I can see they are 0.4 ºC below the reference level (I believe this is 1961-1990). The mean of the 1990s is 0.3 ºC above this level (I calculated this from the Jones data) - so I find that the Mann data are in fact 0.7 ºC below the 1990s in the MM. The difference between model expectation for 2.4 W/m2 and the actual found in the Mann data is almost gone then. Add to that the possibility that the Mann data may somewhat understimate the variability, and I do not see any significant discrepancy between models and data, which we should mention and which we could defend as real - even for "best guess" sensitivity and forcing, let alone considering the uncertainty in those. Cheers, Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf [1]www.ozean-klima.de [2]www.realclimate.org 4042. 2005-01-14 18:01:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: jto@u.arizona.edu date: Fri Jan 14 18:01:12 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: READ - GETTING IT ALL HOME TO US to: Eystein Jansen Eystein having a bad time with this end note crap Here is final version for now (use this one) - note there are some references missing from the ocean bit that you Eystein will have to hand. The formatting has gone weird (several times) and the style does not now conform to the IPCC one - but you will I hope be able to make it do so . Am including the endnote file , latest text with Figures in (and as separate Gifs - as before - one axis is wrong in Figure but can not edit it now) . I have just not been able to get to Medieval Box (been handling comments from Henry Pollock - but will try Sunday (am out on Saturday) - would not be disaster if didn't go in til next draft. 12:41 14/01/2005, you wrote: Dear Ch 6 gang. We are grateful for your strong and continuous efforts over the past days. We are getting there, and many good sections are now almost finished. This mail goes to all who have lead function on the Sections and concerns how to finish the job for the ZOD: Stefan: 6.2.3, 6.4.3.3, 6.7 (FAQ) Keith: 6.3.2.1 Valerie: 6.3.2.2, 6.4.3.1 Dominique: 6.3.3 (Eystein finishes) David: Deep Past box, 6.4.3.2, 6.5.8 Dick:/Bette: 6.4.2, Dick:6.5.7 Fortunat: 6.4.3.4, 6.5.3 Ricardo: 6.5.4 What to do: 1. Every section leader - send to Peck and Eystein TODAY: a. their final ZOD prose (noting where Peck or Eystein needs to complete something, if this is the case. Send again even if you think you sent the final before. We need to be sure that we deal with the absolutely last version). b. any final bullets if not already sent - we have them for most sections - Peck extracts from Keith´s chapter c. refs in endnote hopefully\ d. final figs, with the understanding that captions are in the text - Send figs in separate files even if also embedded in section prose. This way we are we will have what we need for the weekend. DO NOT assume we already have the latest!! In ALL cases, we need to have what YOU think is the latest, along with all the pieces (a-d above). Of course, you can just cut/paste the above. We will ask the TSU for an extention until monday for the final submission of the whole Package, which means we need to have the elements in today/night to get everything together. Again, lots of thanks for your contientious efforts. We think we are now off to a good start. Cheers, Eystein and Peck -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ----------------------- The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students More info at: [1]www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2399. 2005-01-16 12:31:02 ______________________________________________________ cc: ottobli@ucar.edu date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 12:31:02 -0500 from: David Rind subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Emailing: IPCC6.4.2.3PMIP.doc to: stefan@pik-potsdam.de, "W.R Peltier" Dick, The only caveat I can add to Stefan's comment is that what actually happens in coupled models does depend on the model - not all models get reduced poleward heat transport. In particular, several coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs actually have strengthened NADW production, due to the removal of the freshwater input from the higher latitudes that is occurring today. People at WHOI have questioned how much poleward heat transport actually did decrease, as the isotope evidence shows indications of enhanced intermediate water production. Nevertheless, Chris Charles, comparing the isotope signature from simulations with and without a coupled mixed layer ocean model (with prescribed, current day ocean heat transports) found that using current day transports produced a high latitude isotope signature that was too light compared with the observed value, indicating that at least with that model's overall climate sensitivity,it was probably an overestimate. However, that same model produced much more appropriate tropical isotope signatures by using current day transports than when the model was run with the CLIMAP SSTs (including the poleward ocean heat transport, and allowing the model to run to equilibrium with LGM forcings, produced colder tropical temperatures). David At 6:15 PM +0100 1/16/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: >Dear all, > >Dick, your section looks good, except for a few small things. I >think it's not quite right to say: > >>Although mixed layer ocean coupled models may be employed to make >>predictions of the equilibrium LGM distribution of SSTs >> >since if you don't get the ocean circulation and heat transport >right, you also get big errors in the SST distribution. In the first >(and most-cited) LGM simulation with a coupled model, Ganopolski et >al. (Nature 1998) compared the coupled version to one with a "mixed >layer ocean", and found that northern hemisphere mean LGM cooling >was enhanced by 50% when you use the coupled model. The reason is >simple and plausible: the "mixed layer ocean" uses prescribed heat >transport, which brings a lot of heat to the northern Atlantic, >preventing the expansion of sea ice. When you use a coupled model, >the warm surface currents in the North Atlantic retreat to the south >(as they should in glacial climate) with a corresponding expansion >in sea ice, and enhanced ice-albedo feedback cooling. > >Also, I think you are right that the question whether the AMOC >strengthens or weakens depends on changes in the water cycle, but I >don't think one can conclude that differences in those can be >attributed to the acceleration techniques - I think there could be >any number of other reasons for this. > >Also, I think it is worth mentioning that the strength is only one >parameter - perhaps more important to climate than the strength of >the AMOC is the latitude up to which the heat transport reaches, as >we analyse in detail in a series of papers (starting with my Nature >1994 paper which looks specifically at this in an idealised model). >There is plenty of evidence from sediment data that such latitude >changes did occur and are important. > >Cheers, Stefan > >_______________________________________________ >Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3917. 2005-01-17 09:20:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: lkeigwin@whoi.edu, cg1@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, apar@nerc.ac.uk, ppn@nerc.ac.uk, r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk, haugan@gfi.uib.no, rwood@meto.gov.uk, sfbtett@meto.gov.uk, j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk, p.j.valdes@bristol.ac.uk, marotzke@dkrz.de, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 09:20:25 +0000 from: Meric Srokosz subject: International Opportunities Fund for NERC Programmes: First Call to: sxj@soc.soton.ac.uk, mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk, shb@soc.soton.ac.uk, a.j.willmott@keele.ac.uk, ewwo@bas.ac.uk, ric@liv.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk, ericg@met.rdg.ac.uk, Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk, a.watson@uea.ac.uk, hlb@soc.soton.ac.uk, pc@soc.soton.ac.uk, ncw@soc.soton.ac.uk, j.holmes@ucl.ac.uk, j.bamber@bristol.ac.uk, C.Hughes@pol.ac.uk, i.j.fairchild@bham.ac.uk, c.pain@imperial.ac.uk, J.Lowe@rhul.ac.uk, davidm@met.reading.ac.uk, rowan@met.reading.ac.uk, Mark.Chapman@uea.ac.uk, wena@st-andrews.ac.uk, j.m.gregory@reading.ac.uk, kh@mail.nerc-essc.ac.uk Dear all - NERC has provide an opportunity to bid for money for international collaborative activities associated with NERC programmes like RAPID (see below and attached). Only one bid per programme can go forward and the time scale is short (full bid by 8th March). For RAPID I propose that anyone eligible to bid into this (NERC eligibility rules apply, and Science Coordinator is excluded from bidding) write a brief case (300 words max, plus approx. costs) and submit this to the chair of the RAPID Steering Committee (Lloyd Keigwin, lkeigwin@whoi.edu) copied to Christine Gommenginger (as I am away from 23rd Jan until 7th March; cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk). Lloyd will then decide which bid can go forward as a full bid from RAPID. In order to make this work, I suggest that outline bids be with Lloyd and Christine by Tuesday 25th Jan, and you will be informed of a decision by 7th Feb, thus leaving a month to prepare the full bid. Please note that the key objective is "To deliver high impact, international actions & activities aligned to NERC's ... Directed Programmes" so any bid must be RAPID relevant. Additionally, a key assessment criterion is "The value added to the NERC Programme by development of this specific international dimension." The money available is NOT for research, but for things like meetings, exchange of scientists,etc... The time scale is short and not of my choosing, but this is another opportunity to bid for money that can develop RAPID internationally. Meric >Date: Wed, 05 Jan 2005 18:29:53 +0000 >From: "Lesley Aspinall" >To: >Subject: International Opportunities Fund for NERC Programmes: First > Call > >To: Directors NERC Research and Collaborative Centres > Chairs NERC Directed Programme Steering Committees > NERC Programme Science Co-ordinators > >THE INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FUND FOR NERC PROGRAMMES: >FIRST CALL FOR PROPOSALS > >Closing date for submission of proposals : 8th March 2005 > >Please find attached covering letter and Announcement of Opportunity >with respect to a new NERC Funding Initiative: "the International >Opportunities Fund for NERC Programmes". > >Full details of the background and objectives of the Programmes' >International Opportunities Fund are provided in the attached "Call for >Proposals" together with application procedures and guidance notes. > >For clarification please also find attached spreadsheet listing >anticipated contacts for each Directed Programme, Research & >Collaborative Centre as some recipients of this e-mail may have >responsibilities or links with more than one NERC Programme etc. > >Should you have any queries or wish to discuss any aspect of the new >scheme in more detail please contact either Lesley Aspinall >(laa@nerc.ac.uk Tel: 01793 411536) or Zena Davis (ZK@nerc.ac.uk >Tel:01793 442614) in the NERC International Strategy Group. This is a >new and slightly unusual funding initiative and it may therefore be >helpful to discuss any queries at an early stage of proposal >development. We look forward to hearing from you. >With very best wishes for the New Year ahead. > >Lesley Aspinall >International Strategy Group >Science and Innovation Programmes >Natural Environment Research Council >Polaris House >North Star Avenue >Swindon >SN2 1EU -- Dr. Meric Srokosz, Room 254/43,Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC) Empress Dock, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK Tel:+44-(0)23-80596414 (direct line); Fax: +44-(0)23-80596400 e-mail: mas@soc.soton.ac.uk or M.Srokosz@soc.soton.ac.uk http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/SAT/pers/mas.html Science Coordinator NERC Rapid Climate Change Programme http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Covering Letter IOPPSFUND Jan2005 1.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\OPPSFUNDCALLFORPROPOSALSFINAL 1.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\NERC Programme SC RC & CC contacts 1.xls" 3227. 2005-01-17 10:04:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 10:04:47 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: CA list for ZOD to: Eystein Jansen E - here's my list for the CA's that should be listed after the LA's at the top of our chapter. Please add your names - e.g., the ones who helped with the glacier section. thx, peck Tim Osborn Julia Cole Lonnie Thompson Ellen Mosley-Thompson Mark Chandler Better Otto-Bleisner Sandy Harrison note that Keith indicated that Mike Mann, Henry Pollack and Edward Cook would be CAs at some point too. I suggest we get the green light from Keith before adding them to ZOD. Thanks, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 1286. 2005-01-17 10:10:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jan 17 10:10:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Rainfall trends to: "Klein Tank, Albert" Albert, Maybe you have this attachment - maybe not. I thought I would send on as it relates to how we should or should not refer to Michaels et al (2004) which came out in IJC in last issue of 2004. Cheers Phil Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 14:54:32 -0500 From: "Thomas R Karl" User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-US; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 (ax) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Thomas R Karl CC: Phil Jones , Pasha Groisman Subject: Re: Fwd: Rainfall trends X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-UEA-MailScanner-SpamScore: ss Sorry Phil --- pdf version attached Thomas R Karl wrote: Phil, Thanks for the article and note. I refer you to our latest work (lead author Pasha) which is attached. Here you will see we have expanded our network to include all the data we have been digitizing over the past few years. We have far more stations than we had in 1998 and were able to search for trends in the higher quantiles with longer return periods. Our results clearly show stronger trends compared to the mean the higher in the distribution you go (see Tables 1 through 4). In addition, we find (I calculated this from Table 3 in our paper) that when you compare 1910-1970 with 1971-99 you find relative to the mean annual total precip during the two periods the 99.9 percentile value accounted for 12% more precip in the later period (relative to the mean of that period) compared with the 99.9 percentile and the mean of the earlier period. For the 99th percentile it was 9% higher in the later period and for the 95 percentile it was 5% more. Also you can see the trends at the higher percentiles increasing much fast thatn for the mean. I note Pat's Fig. 4a the sign of the change is consistent with our results (not sure about magnitude because he uses inches (WHO REVIEWED THIS AND LET HIM GET AWAY WITH INCHES!!)), but when he divides by the total annual precip the results are quite different. I am not sure how much his small network of 129 stations contributes to unstable results. Second, if you look at our Table 1 we show the national trend in the mean to be about 6% per Century (consistent with IPCC and the US National Assessment). I suspect his method of averaging is misleading him, and a few stations with high 10-day precip compared to the mean within the regions are dominating and causing unstable results. We found that in looking at the extremes one really has to be careful how one does area averaging. Phil, if you simply look at the trends for the 95, 99 and 99.9 percentiles all our increasing at a much faster rate from 17 up to 33 percent per century. The intepretation is straightforward, the heaviest precip events are increasing faster than the mean (again consistent with Katz's theoretical work and Pasha's earlier empirically based model we featured in IPCC 2001). . So... I am not sure we need to respond to Pat's work as I think our latest is much more comprehensive. What do you think? P.S. I think we are close to sending our Vertical Temp Report out next week. I will send you, Kevin, and Susan copies. It was far more work than I ever imagined and we are just in our first review stage! As you can see thinks are pretty busy ---- seem to be working too much as I am sure you are!---- at least on weekends I am up here on the Mountain which makes up for a lot. Regards, Tom Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3287. 2005-01-17 10:58:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jan 17 10:58:36 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: FW: FYI --- better read this sitting down to: "Tett, Simon" Simon, Read Inhofe's speech a few days after it came out. Hans' comments were unfortunate if true. Hans is still of the opinion that the late-20th century is the warmest period of the last millennium. The basic message should still be this. As for the Arctic, the following bit of text is currently in the IPCC report - submitted last week to WGI. Snow cover has decreased in many NH regions, particularly in the spring season and this is consistent with greater increases in spring than autumn temperatures in mid-latitude regions. The reduction in frost days is principally due to an earlier last day of frost in spring rather than a later start to the frost season in autumn. Sea-ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in the spring and summer seasons, and patterns of the changes are consistent with regions showing a temperature increase. Overall the Arctic (north of 65ºN) average annual temperature has increased since the 1960s and is now warmer (at the decade timescale) than conditions experienced during the 1920-45 period. The recent warm period in the Arctic is, however, not yet as long as that in the early-to-mid 20th century. Patterns of Arctic warmth in the two periods (1920-45 and since 1990) are also quite different, as they are in almost all regions of the world with adequate data for the earlier period. Patterns of recent warming in the Arctic are more consistent with changes in the NAM than those earlier in the 20th century. It is in an concluding section and I think we will need to add a figure into the main part of the text. So Arctic warmth and its 'impression in a time series plot' depends how much you smooth it. If you decadally smooth then the last 15 years are warmest. There wasn't a time series for the Arctic in the TAR. We need one - we have an SST series for the N. Atlantic north of 35N, which shows recent period way warmer than earlier in the 20th century. Maybe I'll see you next week at Exeter - Jan 26 or better 27th. Cheers Phil At 06:31 16/01/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, picked the wrong address! Sorry as you won't get this for another week (as I write in on a plane to the US) S Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk [1]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://www.hadobs.org -----Original Message----- From: Jones, Philip [[3]mailto:philip.jones@metoffice.gov.uk] Sent: 07 January 2005 12:44 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2764. 2005-01-17 11:16:32 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 11:16:32 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Keith's box to: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , oyvind.paasche@bjerknes.uib.no Hi all - attached is Keith's MWP box w/ my edits. It reads just great - much like a big hammer. Nice job. Please insert after Eystein has had his say. thx, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\MWP-KRBjto.doc" 3668. 2005-01-17 17:50:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no,K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 17 Jan 2005 17:50:10 +0000 from: Tom Melvin to: jto@u.arizona.edu Peck, Here is MWP box and Endnote references (a few are duplicates of earlier lot) Reference to Goosse paper was the one sent by Stefan in his Email about MWP box but I don't have it here, please correct for me. Similarly don't have full details of some references because cannot access my computer. Please feel free to edit or whatever this text. Decided no figure is worth putting in (space restriction also). As for CAs, at moment only need to put Timothy J Osborn, Henry N Pollack and Michael E Mann. Eventually I expect Edward R Cook and Jan Esper to contribute but have not yet done so (though put them in now if you need to do this). Really sorry about electricity failure (1st in 25 years i've been here - Sods law) Hopefully you can just drop this in and still make the deadline? Really was beyond my control. Best wishes. Keith Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\MWP-KRB.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\MWP-KRB.enl" 3803. 2005-01-18 07:43:29 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jan 18 07:43:29 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: 2004 to: "raymond s. bradley" Ray, We all agree on that ! I'll have a look when back on Friday. Phil At 22:02 17/01/2005, you wrote: Ok, thanks--see what I posted at [1]http://www.realclimate.org I just read that Schellnhuber got an OBE!!!! I didn't know you got those for spouting bullshit, but I guess that's how far standards have fallen. Pretty amazing... ray At 08:34 AM 1/17/2005, you wrote: Ray, I got the zeroth-order draft of the IPCC Chapter on Atmospheric Obs. in on Friday and have been looking forward to a break ! I'm also off tomorrow to Stockholm for 3 days and will be away all the following week in Reading and Exeter. Attached is the press release The Met Office and UEA put out on Dec 16, 2004. If you want to piece something together from this you're most welcome to. If you use any of the diagrams you'd better check with David Parker (david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk). The diagrams will get updated once Dec04 data are fully in, but it shouldn't change anything. The diagrams will be in the WMO Statement of the Climate for 2004 which generally comes out for WMO Day, which is in early May. You might like to wait for that publication/pdf to come out. If you go here [2]http://www.wmo.ch/index-en.html and click on WMO press release no 718 you get a lot more. I've not the energy Mike has to knock these things off in a few minutes ! Hope all is well with you ! Cheers Phil PS keith is still writing some bits for the draft of the paleo chapter. The deadline for submission of chapters was Jan 14! Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Raymond S. Bradley Director, Climate System Research Center* Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Morrill Science Center 611 North Pleasant Street AMHERST, MA 01003-9297 Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 *Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 <[3]http://www.paleoclimate.org> Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [4]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html Publications (download .pdf files): [5]http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradleypub.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2341. 2005-01-18 17:06:22 ______________________________________________________ cc: cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 17:06:22 +0100 from: Fortunat Joos subject: Re: solar in Chapter 6 to: Jonathan Overpeck Excellent Peck, But I would like to see our and Chap 2 and 9 ZOD first, before writing any line. Regards, Fortunat Quoting Jonathan Overpeck : > Hi Fortunat - the key will be to work carefully in coordination with > Chaps 2 and 9 on this, and given the connections in our chapter, we'd > like it if you also coordinated with David R., Stefan R. and Keith B. > (and, of course others - but the solar debate team should be you > David, Stefan and Keith. > > We have learned that it is critical to have serious discussion and > editing of such controversal issues, and moreover to work things out > way in advance. Thus, we'd like to draft your proposed paragraph > (won't have more room than that, although you could start longer if > you wish) as soon as possible and get the others involved and in > consensus. Then we can coordinate with the other 2 chapters - should > have their official ZOD's soon. > > Sound like a workable plan? We'll send out a message about this in > the context of general LA post-ZOD work, but didn't want to slow you > down! > > Thx, Peck > > >Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > >> > >> Hi Fortunat - thanks for the suggestions. We changed the ones in the > >> text as you suggested and added one about CO2 and CH4. The only > >> strong solar point is the one you made early - and we can discuss the > >> possibility of more. Guess we should also think about one regarding > >> cosmic rays etc, > > > >What I have had in mind is reconstructions of solar magnetic activity > >from radioisotopes and comparison with sunspot observations. E.g. the > >recent Solanki paper etc. The figure that I included in some of my > >earlier contribution could be a good basis for further discussion. I > >will try to work out some text for the next round. o.k? > > > > > > > > > >but in both cases, we'd have to change the main text > >> to support. That's a psot ZOD activity. > >> > >> thx, again, peck > >> > >> >Hi, running out of time. > >> > > >> >Here just a few remarks on the summary > >> > > >> >fj > >> >-- > >> >Climate and Environmental Physics > >> >Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > >> >Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > >> >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: > >> >http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > >> > > >> >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Chap6ExecSummV2_joos_17jan0.doc > >> >(WDBN/MSWD) (000C3C8D) > >> >_______________________________________________ > >> >Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list > >> >Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu > >> >http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 > >> > >> -- > >> Jonathan T. Overpeck > >> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >> Professor, Department of Geosciences > >> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >> > >> Mail and Fedex Address: > >> > >> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > >> University of Arizona > >> Tucson, AZ 85721 > >> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > >> fax: +1 520 792-8795 > >> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > >> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > > > >-- > >Climate and Environmental Physics > >Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > >Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: > >http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > > > -- > Jonathan T. Overpeck > Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > Professor, Department of Geosciences > Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > > Mail and Fedex Address: > > Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > University of Arizona > Tucson, AZ 85721 > direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > fax: +1 520 792-8795 > http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > -- Climate and Environmental Physics Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ 1947. 2005-01-18 17:35:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk, jones@gkss.de, Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de, Keith Briffa date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 17:35:21 +0000 from: "Brohan, Philip" subject: Re: SO&P Deliverable 8 to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim. Many thanks for your comments, they are thorough and useful. My responses are below. I have divided your comments into two groups: those which I can resolve either in this message or by a minor revision of the report, and those which I need to consider in further work. So: resolvable comments: > (1) For consistency, could you use ECHO-G rather than Echo-G > throughout? I will do this. > (2) Why did you use the Columbus run rather than the Erik run? I need a control run. There is a control run for Columbus but not for Erik. > (3) What is the "median" slope in Figure 2? Is this different to a > least-squares fit? For each year I have divided the instrumental anomaly by the model anomaly. The line slope is then the median of these values. I chose the median because I wanted an estimator that had no pretence to being statistically correct. Producing a statistically sound estimator is what the rest of the paper is about. Rather than explain all this in the paper, I will delete the lines (and all reference to the median) from the figure and revise the associated paragraph. > > (6) I'm also confused why the urbanisation error is represented by a random > series, albeit always negative -- isn't it more of a systematic error in > the trend, though with unknown magnitude? Page 5 implies it is random, > page 6 says it (plus bucket and exposure errors) are treated as systematic. The urbanisation error, like the bucket and exposure errors, IS a fixed series scaled by a random value. I.e. a systematic effect, as you say, a trend with unknown magnitude. Unlike the bucket and exposure errors, the trend is constrained to be negative. I will try to make this clearer in the text. > (7) Some of the error distributions may be quite non-Gaussian, I guess, so > it might be useful to show more than just the quartiles - perhaps the > quartiles and the 95% range (2.5%-97.5%)? I will experiment with this. If I can easily make a better figure along these lines I will change them all. > (8) Is there a strong enough drift in the ECHO-G control run to generate > the stronger persistence (autocorrelation), or is it genuinely different > behaviour. The ECHO-G control has no obvious drift. I think this is genuinely different behaviour. (Eduardo, Simon: any comment?) > (11) Note that Erik (and I presume Columbus) simulations do in fact > consider changes in N2O - hence page 16 is slightly in error. They did not > include CFCs or ozone etc. I have the N2O series from Julie if you'd like > it (sorry it's not yet on the SOAP website). Please send me the forcing and I'll add it in. It won't make any great difference. > (14) Section 5.2.6: I think you should say here why the "best > estimates" of > effective forcing for HadCM3 and ECHO-G differ. This needs to be clear to > avoid confusion. As far as I can tell there are two sources of difference: > first you used a different "best estimate" volcanic forcing for each model > (see 13), and second the effective forcing has been convolved with each > model's own autocorrelation structure. Is that it? You are right about the two sources of difference. I will expand this section to say this explicitly. > (15) Page 22, you say about ECHO-G "so it is more likely that the > model is > oversensitive". Don't you mean undersensitive, or have I got the sense of > beta the wrong way round? You are right, it should be undersensitive. So thanks for all those. I'll send round a modestly revised version of the report in a little while. OK: Now for the difficult points. > (4) I'm not convinced that using the autocorrelation structure of the > control run will correctly emulate the response time of the model's global > temperature to forcing perturbations. Would it give the same result as a > simple climate model (e.g. MAGICC, Wigley and Raper) that models the > timescale-dependent effective thermal inertia of the oceans? I wonder if > you have a stand-alone program to generate random forcing realisations that > could be used to drive MAGICC in ensemble mode? Might be interesting. > This approximation effectively makes two assumptions: 1) Forcing in year x has no direct influence on temperature in year x+1. It only has an indirect effect by changing the temperature in year x, and that change of temperature modifies the temperature in the next year. 2) The model autocorrelation is the same with large temperature changes as with small ones. Neither of these assumptions is true (I suspect) but improving on them is hard. I have tried to estimate the model impulse response directly from cross-correlation of the forcing and temperature time-series in a forced run, but the Natural and ALL forcings runs are not ideal for this purpose and the results were poor. Your idea of using an EBM or simple model to look at this is very attractive; Simon has made a similar suggestion. I'd like to talk to you about this at the meeting in Reading. > > (5) Would you get the same results if you did everything with decadal > means? One reason I ask is that I wasn't sure if the Folland et al. errors > were applicable to individual annual values, or to decadal means (the > "representativity" error, at least, is *timescale* dependent). Eduardo also suggested this. But If I have estimated all the uncertainties correctly, any further averaging of the input series will make the results worse. We would have to allow for the reduction in noise in the solution process, and we would lose some of the signal. This is, I think, a general result in signal processing: If you are fitting the right model, you get the best results with unsmoothed data. I am tempted to try this even so, just to see what happens. But it is technically time-consuming (I would have to modify all the uncertainty generators to produce decadal series). So I don't plan to do this soon. I am sure I am correctly using annual representativity errors, but this error component is negligible in any event. > > (9) For your uncertainty analysis of the solar forcing, you've repeatedly > taken one of the three solar curves and scaled it to get the randomly > selected strength of overall change between Late Maunder Minimum and > present. But this scaling affects all aspects of the curve, including the > magnitude of the 11-year cycles - which over recent years are known > relatively precisely from satellite measurements. Could you somehow scale > the magnitude of the long-term trend without modifying the magnitude of the > 11-year cycles? Or wouldn't it make much difference to the results? > See below. > (10) Wigley and Raper (2001, Science 293, 451-454) use a log-normal > distribution for the tropospheric aerosol forcing while you use a > rectangular distribution. Though the IPCC TAR doesn't specify the likely > distribution shape, this may be something that results are particularly > sensitive to, given the importance of this forcing. A log-normal will > clearly give less likelihood to the weak and strong extremes of aerosol > forcing, compared with your results, which could probably be argued for > with statistical and/or physical reasons. > See below. > (12) In Figure 15 the GHG uncertainty is clearly apparent. You've scaled > the ECHO-G time profile of forcing up to the best estimate from the IPCC > TAR. But given that the reason why they differ is (once you include N2O -- > see 11) because CFCs are omitted, the "best estimate" will not simply be > the "run" multiplied by a constant slightly greater than one. The "best > estimate" will be the same as the "run" up until around 1970 when the CFC > emissions become large. That is, the time profiles must be reshaped rather > than just rescaled. > Your comments 9, 10 and 12 all come into the general category of 'The forcing uncertainty estimates could be improved'. There is so much scope for refining the forcing uncertainties that I am reluctant to start. I have made many arbitrary decisions in producing these estimates, and I could easily spend a year or so making better estimates. I doubt, however, that any reasonable amount of work would produce estimates (particularly of Solar forcing) that could be widely accepted as definitive. I believe that If I spent a year refining the forcing uncertainty estimates, and then repeated the calculation, I would get essentially the same answer (beta is very uncertain), because the estimates would change greatly in detail, but little in absolute magnitude. So I am reluctant to do much more work on forcing uncertainty. I realise that this may make it very difficult to publish this analysis. I am still thinking about what to do about this, and whether and how to do more work along these lines. > (16) Conclusions: would the test have more power if you expanded to > consider (e.g.) NH land, NH ocean, SH land and SH ocean temperatures > together, rather than just global? I guess that moves closer to the type > of approach used for optimal detection and attribution - which is closely > related to what you are doing here and links should be mentioned. In fact, > possible overlaps with detection/attribution work and also with studies > (e.g. Jonathan Gregory's) that diagnose climate sensitivity from > observations may prove difficult in getting this published. We can discuss > more in Reading. > I haven't much to say here except 'yes indeed'. I have not had time to get to the bottom of optimal D+A, but on first inspection I think merging their optimisation process with the formal uncertainty approach which I have been trying to develop would be very difficult. Thanks again. See you in Reading. Philip > > Dear Philip, Simon, Julie and Eduardo, > > I have (at last!) had time to read the report in detail. Thanks very much > for all the work and writing involved - it looks impressive and certainly > satisfies the requirements for the deliverable. > > I have some comments for you all. Some may be errors which should ideally > be corrected before I post the report on the website. Others are more > general comments that needn't be dealt with now, but might be useful (I > hope) when taking the work further (e.g. papers). > -- Philip Brohan, Climate Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Tel: +44 (0)1392 884574 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Email: philip.brohan@metoffice.com http://www.metoffice.com 2035. 2005-01-19 10:51:33 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Edward Cook date: Wed, 19 Jan 2005 10:51:33 -0500 from: Edward Cook subject: Re: Re: to: Gerard van der Schrier Hi Gerard, I wouldn't contact Dai until you are certain about the problem in his calculations. Perhaps simply showing him a comparison of your PDSIs for Europe and his at the same grid point location with freak values would be enough to stimulate a useful initial discussion, or do as Keith suggests with maps. I don't know Dai at all to say how he handles possible criticism. I do know that Trenberth, his co-author, is extremely defensive and combative when ever criticized about anything because he figures that he is smarter than everyone else and virtually infallible. So at the start, if you do contact Dai, do not include Trenberth in the communication. Let Dai sort that issue out himself. I am glad to hear that the SC-PDSI also appears to improve things for Europe as well. It appears to be the way to go. With respect to the program, have you written your SC-PDSI program in Fortran? And if so, is it possible to get a copy of the source code? I would also appreciate seeing a copy of your European SC-PDSI paper when you feel comfortable with sending it to me. Cheers, Ed On Jan 19, 2005, at 10:09 AM, Gerard van der Schrier wrote: > Dear Ed, > > Thanks for sending me the pdfs of those articles. And the > recommendation to read the supplementary material. > > I've computed the self-calibrating PDSI for Europe only (but it is > trivial to do that for other regions in the world). The SC-PDSI is a > real improvement over the 'ordinary' PDSI: many thanks for suggesting > to look into this! About two weeks ago, I gave a first draft of a > paper on the European SC-PDSI to Keith and Phil (haven't heard > anything since). Initially the idea was to make an update to a > publication of Keith on European PDSI from 1992. > > About the Dai et al. PDSI: they used the code available from the NGDC. > This code is a modified version from the 1980s, when internal memory > of the computers was very limited. I'm certainly not a computer-gizmo, > but my guess about the mistake in Dai et al. is that they simply took > this code, put some do-loops around it (to compute PDSI for every > gridbox), but then failed to properly declare and initialize the > arrays. Fortran might get internal memory places mixed up when > declarations & initializations are not properly sorted out, especially > when you are working with a code that it written to be as economical > as possible with internal memory. At least: this all happened to me > when I had my first try on computing PDSI. I also got freak values of > 20 or so. The PDSI algorith then makes sure that these freak values > are quickly damped away, which makes their impact relatively short. > > I haven't told Dai et al. about this. Should I? Keith urged me to > explicitly show one of their most horrible PDSI maps and compare it to > ours. They also have freak values in Europe..... > > Thanks for the comments about the preferred format. I'll stick to that. > > I'll be in touch. > > Cheers, Gerard > >> Hi Gerard, >> >> I had a nice talk with Keith yesterday about a number of things >> including asking about your progress in generating monthly gridded >> PDSIs over global land areas. Keith indicated that you had >> successfully programmed the self-calibrating PDSI algorithm and had >> calculated gridded PDSIs for at least Europe (if I understood him >> correctly). That is great. >> >> Do you have any timetable for producing gridded PDSIs over global >> land areas? I am very interested in comparing what your PDSIs with >> those of Dai first of all. (Maybe you have already done that) Keith >> indicated that you discovered a computational error in Dai's program >> that produced unusually extreme PDSI values in some cases. (Has Dai >> and that miserable prat Trenberth been told about this? As you might >> tell, I have genuine dislike for that arrogant Kiwi) That is not >> surprising to me because I found PDSIs >20 in some of Dai's Mexican >> grid point estimates. I also suspect that the quality of the monthly >> precipitation and temperature data used by you is better than that >> used by Dai. So, between not having the computational error and >> having what I suspect to be better quality input data, your PDSI data >> will be a significant improvement over Dai's data. Added to that, the >> self-calibrating PDSI algorithm would appear to add even more >> improvement. All this being the case, the next step would be for me >> to re-do my North American PDSI reconstructions with your gridded >> PDSI data when they are available. Please let me know when this might >> be the case. I also have a Chinese graduate student here from Lanzhou >> who will work on producing gridded PDSI reconstructions for China and >> surrounding land areas (e.g. Mongolia) from long tree-ring records. >> Your gridded PDSI data over that region would also be extremely >> useful for that project. >> >> I also talked with Keith about the eventual format of the global land >> area PDSI file. As you know, Paul Krusic has written a very handy >> Fortran program for extracting sub-regions of monthly climate data >> from the Mitchell et al. (2003) 0.5° global data sets. It would be >> great if your eventual global PDSI data, derived from the same >> Mitchell et al. data (I believe), were organized in the same format >> as Mitchell's data so that Paul's program could be used with minimal >> modification. >> >> Finally, I have attached pdfs of my recent drought paper in Science >> and its Supporting Online Materials for you interest (the latter is >> very important to read in my humble opinion). Also, my recent QSR >> paper on the Esper et al. estimates of past temperature is attached. >> >> Cheers, >> >> Ed >> >> >> >> ================================== >> Dr. Edward R. Cook >> Doherty Senior Scholar and >> Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory >> Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory >> Palisades, New York 10964 USA >> Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu >> Phone: 845-365-8618 >> Fax: 845-365-8152 >> ================================== > > ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== 2009. 2005-01-20 10:04:49 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jan 20 10:04:49 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Re: to: Edward Cook Ed will be discussing all this early next week with Gerrard. He is doing the US stuff at least . We wish to do some longer (based on station records) stuff for some European locations and try some reconstructions against oak data also. I am trying to track down the NAO MSc thesis but it might be that the guy only looked at post 1950 data - will let you know. I am attaching the short 2000 year section from the ZOD of the IPCC report and the text of a "box" on the MWP (both confidential for now) but if we can get more space , it needs expanding to cover SH and more hydro . They also want an appendix on standardisation - so you will be involved in this also. Really happy to get critical comment here . There is no doubt that this section will attract all the venom from the sceptics. I find myself in the strange position of being very skeptical of the quality of all present reconstructions, yet sounding like a pro greenhouse zealot here! Told Peck that you (and Jan) will be CLAS BEST WISHES Keith 15:51 19/01/2005, you wrote: Hi Gerard, I wouldn't contact Dai until you are certain about the problem in his calculations. Perhaps simply showing him a comparison of your PDSIs for Europe and his at the same grid point location with freak values would be enough to stimulate a useful initial discussion, or do as Keith suggests with maps. I don't know Dai at all to say how he handles possible criticism. I do know that Trenberth, his co-author, is extremely defensive and combative when ever criticized about anything because he figures that he is smarter than everyone else and virtually infallible. So at the start, if you do contact Dai, do not include Trenberth in the communication. Let Dai sort that issue out himself. I am glad to hear that the SC-PDSI also appears to improve things for Europe as well. It appears to be the way to go. With respect to the program, have you written your SC-PDSI program in Fortran? And if so, is it possible to get a copy of the source code? I would also appreciate seeing a copy of your European SC-PDSI paper when you feel comfortable with sending it to me. Cheers, Ed On Jan 19, 2005, at 10:09 AM, Gerard van der Schrier wrote: Dear Ed, Thanks for sending me the pdfs of those articles. And the recommendation to read the supplementary material. I've computed the self-calibrating PDSI for Europe only (but it is trivial to do that for other regions in the world). The SC-PDSI is a real improvement over the 'ordinary' PDSI: many thanks for suggesting to look into this! About two weeks ago, I gave a first draft of a paper on the European SC-PDSI to Keith and Phil (haven't heard anything since). Initially the idea was to make an update to a publication of Keith on European PDSI from 1992. About the Dai et al. PDSI: they used the code available from the NGDC. This code is a modified version from the 1980s, when internal memory of the computers was very limited. I'm certainly not a computer-gizmo, but my guess about the mistake in Dai et al. is that they simply took this code, put some do-loops around it (to compute PDSI for every gridbox), but then failed to properly declare and initialize the arrays. Fortran might get internal memory places mixed up when declarations & initializations are not properly sorted out, especially when you are working with a code that it written to be as economical as possible with internal memory. At least: this all happened to me when I had my first try on computing PDSI. I also got freak values of 20 or so. The PDSI algorith then makes sure that these freak values are quickly damped away, which makes their impact relatively short. I haven't told Dai et al. about this. Should I? Keith urged me to explicitly show one of their most horrible PDSI maps and compare it to ours. They also have freak values in Europe..... Thanks for the comments about the preferred format. I'll stick to that. I'll be in touch. Cheers, Gerard Hi Gerard, I had a nice talk with Keith yesterday about a number of things including asking about your progress in generating monthly gridded PDSIs over global land areas. Keith indicated that you had successfully programmed the self-calibrating PDSI algorithm and had calculated gridded PDSIs for at least Europe (if I understood him correctly). That is great. Do you have any timetable for producing gridded PDSIs over global land areas? I am very interested in comparing what your PDSIs with those of Dai first of all. (Maybe you have already done that) Keith indicated that you discovered a computational error in Dai's program that produced unusually extreme PDSI values in some cases. (Has Dai and that miserable prat Trenberth been told about this? As you might tell, I have genuine dislike for that arrogant Kiwi) That is not surprising to me because I found PDSIs >20 in some of Dai's Mexican grid point estimates. I also suspect that the quality of the monthly precipitation and temperature data used by you is better than that used by Dai. So, between not having the computational error and having what I suspect to be better quality input data, your PDSI data will be a significant improvement over Dai's data. Added to that, the self-calibrating PDSI algorithm would appear to add even more improvement. All this being the case, the next step would be for me to re-do my North American PDSI reconstructions with your gridded PDSI data when they are available. Please let me know when this might be the case. I also have a Chinese graduate student here from Lanzhou who will work on producing gridded PDSI reconstructions for China and surrounding land areas (e.g. Mongolia) from long tree-ring records. Your gridded PDSI data over that region would also be extremely useful for that project. I also talked with Keith about the eventual format of the global land area PDSI file. As you know, Paul Krusic has written a very handy Fortran program for extracting sub-regions of monthly climate data from the Mitchell et al. (2003) 0.5° global data sets. It would be great if your eventual global PDSI data, derived from the same Mitchell et al. data (I believe), were organized in the same format as Mitchell's data so that Paul's program could be used with minimal modification. Finally, I have attached pdfs of my recent drought paper in Science and its Supporting Online Materials for you interest (the latter is very important to read in my humble opinion). Also, my recent QSR paper on the Esper et al. estimates of past temperature is attached. Cheers, Ed ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2151. 2005-01-20 14:30:59 ______________________________________________________ cc: rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, wigley@ucar.edu, phil Jones , keith Briffa date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 14:30:59 -0700 from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: Fwd: Your concerns with 2004GL021750 McIntyre to: "Michael E. Mann" Mike, This is truly awful. GRL has gone downhill rapidly in recent years. I think the decline began before Saiers. I have had some unhelpful dealings with him recently with regard to a paper Sarah and I have on glaciers -- it was well received by the referees, and so is in the publication pipeline. However, I got the impression that Saiers was trying to keep it from being published. Proving bad behavior here is very difficult. If you think that Saiers is in the greenhouse skeptics camp, then, if we can find documentary evidence of this, we could go through official AGU channels to get him ousted. Even this would be difficult. How different is the GRL paper from the Nature paper? Did the authors counter any of the criticisms? My experience with Douglass is that the identical (bar format changes) paper to one previously rejected was submitted to GRL. Tom. =============== Michael E. Mann wrote: Dear All, Just a heads up. Apparently, the contrarians now have an "in" with GRL. This guy Saiers has a prior connection w/ the University of Virginia Dept. of Environmental Sciences that causes me some unease. I think we now know how the various Douglass et al papers w/ Michaels and Singer, the Soon et al paper, and now this one have gotten published in GRL, Mike Subject: Your concerns with 2004GL021750 McIntyre Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 14:42:12 -0600 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Your concerns with 2004GL021750 McIntyre Thread-Index: AcT/MITTfwM54m4OS32mJvW4BluE+A== From: "Mackwell, Stephen" [1] To: [2] Cc: [3], [4] X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Jan 2005 20:42:12.0740 (UTC) FILETIME=[84F55440:01C4FF30] X-UVA-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at fork7.mail.virginia.edu X-MIME-Autoconverted: from base64 to 8bit by multiproxy.evsc.Virginia.EDU id j0KKgLO11138 Dear Prof. Mann In your recent email to Chris Reason, you laid out your concerns that I presume were the reason for your phone call to me last week. I have reviewed the manuscript by McIntyre, as well as the reviews. The editor in this case was Prof. James Saiers. He did note initially that the manuscript did challenge published work, and so felt the need for an extensive and thorough review. For that reason, he requested reviews from 3 knowledgable scientists. All three reviews recommended publication. While I do agree that this manuscript does challenge (somewhat aggresively) some of your past work, I do not feel that it takes a particularly harsh tone. On the other hand, I can understand your reaction. As this manuscript was not written as a Comment, but rather as a full-up scientific manuscript, you would not in general be asked to look it over. And I am satisfied by the credentials of the reviewers. Thus, I do not feel that we have sufficient reason to interfere in the timely publication of this work. However, you are perfectly in your rights to write a Comment, in which you challenge the authors' arguments and assertions. Should you elect to do this, your Comment would be provided to them and they would be offered the chance to write a Reply. Both Comment and Reply would then be reviewed and published together (if they survived the review process). Comments are limited to the equivalent of 2 journal pages. Regards Steve Mackwell Editor in Chief, GRL ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: [5]mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [6]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 2065. 2005-01-20 16:03:24 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 16:03:24 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Fwd: Your concerns with 2004GL021750 McIntyre to: rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, wigley@ucar.edu, phil Jones , keith Briffa Dear All, Just a heads up. Apparently, the contrarians now have an "in" with GRL. This guy Saiers has a prior connection w/ the University of Virginia Dept. of Environmental Sciences that causes me some unease. I think we now know how the various Douglass et al papers w/ Michaels and Singer, the Soon et al paper, and now this one have gotten published in GRL, Mike Subject: Your concerns with 2004GL021750 McIntyre Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 14:42:12 -0600 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Your concerns with 2004GL021750 McIntyre Thread-Index: AcT/MITTfwM54m4OS32mJvW4BluE+A== From: "Mackwell, Stephen" To: Cc: , X-OriginalArrivalTime: 20 Jan 2005 20:42:12.0740 (UTC) FILETIME=[84F55440:01C4FF30] X-UVA-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at fork7.mail.virginia.edu X-MIME-Autoconverted: from base64 to 8bit by multiproxy.evsc.Virginia.EDU id j0KKgLO11138 Dear Prof. Mann In your recent email to Chris Reason, you laid out your concerns that I presume were the reason for your phone call to me last week. I have reviewed the manuscript by McIntyre, as well as the reviews. The editor in this case was Prof. James Saiers. He did note initially that the manuscript did challenge published work, and so felt the need for an extensive and thorough review. For that reason, he requested reviews from 3 knowledgable scientists. All three reviews recommended publication. While I do agree that this manuscript does challenge (somewhat aggresively) some of your past work, I do not feel that it takes a particularly harsh tone. On the other hand, I can understand your reaction. As this manuscript was not written as a Comment, but rather as a full-up scientific manuscript, you would not in general be asked to look it over. And I am satisfied by the credentials of the reviewers. Thus, I do not feel that we have sufficient reason to interfere in the timely publication of this work. However, you are perfectly in your rights to write a Comment, in which you challenge the authors' arguments and assertions. Should you elect to do this, your Comment would be provided to them and they would be offered the chance to write a Reply. Both Comment and Reply would then be reviewed and published together (if they survived the review process). Comments are limited to the equivalent of 2 journal pages. Regards Steve Mackwell Editor in Chief, GRL ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 2696. 2005-01-21 08:01:44 ______________________________________________________ cc: mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, wigley@ucar.edu, keith Briffa , Gavin Schmidt date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 08:01:44 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Other issues to: Phil Jones , Tom Wigley Thanks Phil, Yeah--this looks bad too. IJC has published some decent stuff, but lots of crap. Didn't R.G. Currie publish nearly all of his notorious solar-looney papers there? "New Hope Environmental Sciences" is, it may not surprise anyone, a front organization. It's entirely funded by Pat Michaels, through sources of funding whose dubiousness you can only begin to imagine. As for U.Va/Michales/Cato, lets just say, something *should* have been done a long time ago. That it hasn't, is telling for the institution, and does not reflect positively on them in my own current deliberations. More news on that front shortly I hope... Mike At 04:27 AM 1/21/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Dear All, Been away, but just gone through all the emails. There is another poor paper out recently - attached. Tom Karl and Pasha Groisman are already working on a response to this one as well. It seems no-one at NCDC reviewed this, despite the tone in the first paragraph. Whoever reviewed it didn't even question the use of INCHES throughout as the rainfall unit !! I'll raise this with the IJC editor when I see him next. IJC has some good papers, but some recent papers have been accepted with one review and getting even that takes ages. IJC had that appalling paper on Sahel drought earlier in 2004. Several of us wrote a comment (which with a phone call got reviewed quickly) which came out in August. I need to check with the editor, but the last I heard was that the response to the comment has been rejected - heard this from the reviewer (not me) ! What is the New Hope Environmental Sciences at Charlottesville? 5 Boar's Head Lane sounds like an English village address - village with pub, church, village shop, bus every other Thursday - oh and a research institute ! Also doesn't UVa get irked by Michaels giving his Cato affiliation top billing? I have been turning down most reviewing requests, over the last 6 months because just too much else to do, but none of the papers I'm asked to do are contentious in any way. I've been doing those that I think are, even if they take time. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4150. 2005-01-21 08:23:35 ______________________________________________________ cc: p.m.forster@reading.ac.uk date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 08:23:35 +0000 from: "Piers Forster" (by way of International CLIVAR Project Office) subject: RE: Ams meeting to: clivar-africa@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-atlantic@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-dacs@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-gsop@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-iop@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-monsoon@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-pacific@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-pages@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-sthnocean@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-ssg@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-wgcm@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-wgsip@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk, clivar-wgomd@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk Dear Colleagues, We would like to bring to your attention the upcoming AMS joint conferences on Climate Variability and Change, Middle Atmospheres, and Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics to be held June 13-17, 2005 in Cambridge MA. Abstracts can be submitted on line at http://ams.confex.com/ The abstract deadline is February 13th. Information on the meeting can be found at http://www.ametsoc.org/meet/fainst/cambridge.html A conference highlight will be a joint half day discussion meeting on SPARC-CLIVAR interactions, with the co-chairs from the two organisations and members(s) of the WCRP joint steering committee in attendance. Several other joint sessions will be held at the conference. We encourage submissions of papers on general topics as well as to the sessions noted in the call for papers. Any questions should be addressed to Karen Rosenlof (MA, Karen.H.Rosenlof@noaa.gov), Piers Forster (CVC, p.m.forster@reading.ac.uk), or Mark Baldwin (AOFD, mark@nwra.com). -- International CLIVAR Project Office Room 256/20 Southampton Oceanography Centre Empress Dock, SOUTHAMPTON SO14 3ZH, UK email: icpo@soc.soton.ac.uk tel: +44 (0) 23 8059 6777 fax: +44 (0) 23 8059 6204 http://www.clivar.org CLIVAR - The Climate Variability and Predictability Project of the World Climate Research Programme CLIVAR Science Conference - Baltimore, MD, USA June 21-24, 2004. 5133. 2005-01-21 08:57:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 21 08:57:54 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FOIA to: Tom Wigley Tom, I hope the VTT panel doesn't prove a meeting too many at this time. It is currently scheduled for Feb 23-25 and I only get back from an 8 day workshop in Pune on Feb 20. The IPCC Chapter with Kevin is now with WGI in Boulder. We did put you down as one of our potential reviewers. Don't know whether you'll have time or whether WGI will select you - regional balance etc. Next week I'll be in Reading and Exeter, so won'be be in CRU. Have to be at an RMS Awards meeting then something on Reanalysis, then I have to collect some data from the archives in Exeter for a small project we have. It is easier for me to get this than explain to someone how to do it. So I'll miss you - not back till Thursday night. On the FOI Act there is a little leaflet we have all been sent. It doesn't really clarify what we might have to do re programs or data. Like all things in Britain we will only find out when the first person or organization asks. I wouldn't tell anybody about the FOI Act in Britain. I don't think UEA really knows what's involved. As you're no longer an employee I would use this argument if anything comes along. I think it is supposed to mainly apply to issues of personal information - references for jobs etc. Sorry I'll miss you next week. If you're in on Sunday perhaps you could come round to our new house in Wicklewood. Phone number is still the same as 01953 605643. Keith and Sarah know where it is even if they did get lost the first time they came. Cheers Phil At 02:59 21/01/2005, you wrote: Phil, Tom Karl told me you will be on the VTT review panel. This is very good news. Unfortunately I will not be at the meeting on the 23rd -- I will be in midair half way across the Pacific to spend a couple of weeks in Adelaide. I got a brochure on the FOI Act from UEA. Does this mean that, if someone asks for a computer program we have to give it out?? Can you check this for me (and Sarah). I will be at CRU next Mon, Tue, Wed in case Sarah did not tell you. Thanks, Tom. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2986. 2005-01-21 11:17:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 21 Jan 2005 11:17:33 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: question about a paper in GRL (fwd) to: Chris Reason Thanks Chris, Sorry about the email problem. My spam-blocker occasionally throws the baby out w/ the bath water, as in this case. I guess you already saw Steve Mackwell's response. Needless to say, it is a bit disconcerting. We could of course write a reply, but then these bozos get the last word anyway--hardly worth it for us. A number of my colleagues are also very concerned at the recent space of truly awful 'contrarian' climate papers (the various Douglass papers, w/ Singer and Michaels, the Soon et al paper, etc.) that have been published recently. I would assume you had little if anything to do w/ any of these, and so I'm sorry I've even brought you into the fray on this. But I guess it doesn't hurt to have brought this to your attention. Some colleagues have specifically mentioned some negative experiences w/ James Saiers, who seems to be implicated in this latest paper, and perhaps most of the ones discussed above. Why a hydrologist has been entrusted to handle climate papers (especially, controversial ones) is somewhat beyond me. It seems that something may be amiss higher up. Mackwell certainly doesn't appear to be concerned, despite the fact that many in the climate research community are not happy w/ what is going on at GRL right now. Anyway, sorry again for entraining you into this. I realize you probably weren't even aware of this at all. I appreciate your candid reply, and would of course appreciate any relevant additional information that comes your way which you feel comfortable in disclosing. I will certainly keep you posted of any relevant updates at my end. Thanks again, Mike At 10:30 AM 1/21/2005, you wrote: ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Tue, 18 Jan 2005 17:20:50 +0200 (SAST) From: Chris Reason To: Michael E. Mann Subject: Re: question about a paper in GRL Dear Mike I had a look on GEMS but it appears that it has already been accepted by one of the editors. I was not the editor on this paper and obviously cannot interfere with another editor's decision or change it. Any issue with it would therefore need to be addressed by Steve Mackwell as you suggest. I would suggest you phone him on 281-486-2128 to discuss your reservations, or alternatively, AGU HQ in Washington (amacinnes@agu.org) - his asst Anne Marie MacInnes would know his wherabouts. I'm not sure what AGU policy is regarding issues of this type. It would certainly seem like you should contact him as a matter of urgency. If it has already gone into production, then I suppose the alternative would be to submit a Comment to GRL which points out the flaws. Sorry I can't be of more help. I certainly understand your frustrations and concerns. Best Wishes Chris On Tue, 18 Jan 2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: > Dear Chris, > > A number of colleagues of mind have informed me of an inflammatory and > deeply flawed paper that has apparently been accepted in GRL by two > individuals McIntyre and McKitrick. The paper is full of false claims > that were already rejected by Nature in a comment that these authors had > submitted on the previous work of my co-authors and me. > > The authors have apparently been distributing this paper to various > individuals, including colleagues of mine. Obviously, neither my > co-authors nor I were granted any opportunity to respond to the unfounded > criticisms in this paper. But it is furthermore my understanding that > none of my scientific colleagues in this research area (that is > high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction--this would include > researchers at CRU, Univ. of Arizona, Lamont Doherty, Duke University, > University of Bern) had any role in the review of this paper. This is > especially disturbing. > > I am very concerned that this paper has been accepted by GRL. It is one > in a number of deeply flawed papers that have been accepted in the > journal recently (several papers by Douglass et al, one by Soon et al, > and now this one), and a number of my other colleagues, such as Tom > Wigley, are very concerned about this as well. > > I have tried to contact the chief editor Stephen Mackwell to discuss > this matter, but have been unable to reach him. I was hoping you might be > able to provide some help or information on this matter. > > Thanks in advance for getting back to me as soon as possible. > > Best regards, > > Mike Mann > > ______________________________________________________________ > Professor Michael E. Mann > Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall > University of Virginia > Charlottesville, VA 22903 > _______________________________________________________________________ > e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 > [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Assoc. Prof Chris Reason Oceanography Dept. University of Cape Town Private Bag Rondebosch 7701 South Africa cjr@egs.uct.ac.za tel 27-21-650-5311 fax 27-21-650-5773 / 3979 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4307. 2005-01-21 12:47:20 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 21 12:47:20 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: DECREASE IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO SULPHATES, PARTICULATES to: John Davies John, Been away. There isn't a simple answer to the question, even roughly. They have caused some cooling, but a number depends on the climate sensitivity. Best would be to look at the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report. Cheers Phil At 16:32 18/01/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr. Phil Jones, I hope that it will be possible for you to give a rough estimate to the following question. ' What is the estimated cooling effect, in degrees Celsius, of Sulphates, Particulates etc in the global atmosphere, on the global atmosphere at the surface and near to the surface of the earth.' All the Best, John B Davies. -- John B Davies ********************************************** Man-made climate change is the biggest environmental threat our planet faces. Tony Blair says climate change is the worlds greatest environmental challenge - yet the Government has sanctioned massive growth in air travel that will make it impossible to meet our carbon dioxide reduction targets. Take our Climate Challenge and make a real difference. [1]http://www.foe.co.uk/climate_challenge/ Make your personal stand against airport expansion - sign the airport pledge [2]http://www.airportpledge.org.uk Find out the real cost of cheap flights [3]http://www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/transport/issues/air_travel/index.html [4]http://www.airportwatch.org.uk Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 817. 2005-01-21 17:25:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 21 17:25:45 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: Scientific Alliance Conference: Apocalypse No - to: "Warrilow, David (GA)" , "Johnson, Cathy (GA)" David, Yes. Peter Thorne from the HC went as did David Parker - as members of the drafting team. Chris Folland also got involved. Tom Karl organised it all and had to pay for it from his budget. I'll be on a US NRC/National Academy committee that has to approve it. Apparently it has a majority report with a minor dissenting views section. I should get it in a few weeks. Cheers Phil At 16:29 21/01/2005, Warrilow, David (GA) wrote: Cathy, Is that the one that Simon Tett was involved in? -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 21 January 2005 16:23 To: Warrilow, David (GA) Subject: RE: Scientific Alliance Conference: Apocalypse No - Assessingcat astr ophic climate change David, Appreciate that. I did a piece for an R4 program (called Home Planet) on how global temps are calculated. Surprised at the recording that Philip Stott was helping out the presenter at the other end of the line. All went OK though. The IPCC chapter has gone well so far. I don't expect too many issues re urbanization and land-use effects as some good papers have come out recently. The satellite/surface issue will likely reduce as well, but the papers haven't yet come out. I've just agreed to be on the review panel fro the US Assessment of vertical temperature profiles - should meet end of Feb. The big issue that I worry about is the last 1000 years. A paper will come out in a few weeks in Nature - I don't have a copy, nor was I a reviewer - that will cause a stir. For me though all this is now in the paleo chapter as far as IPCC is concerned. Cheers Phil At 16:00 21/01/2005, you wrote: Thanks Phil - as you know they will probably major on the instrumental record. David -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 21 January 2005 13:03 To: Warrilow, David (GA) Cc: McDougal, Tony (CD); geoff.jenkins@metoffice.gov.uk Subject: Re: Scientific Alliance Conference: Apocalypse No - Assessingcatastr ophic climate change David and Tony, I'll be in Exeter at the Met Office on Jan 26-27. On the 26th I'll be working in the library on archival material. On the 27th I'll be in the Hadley Centre with Rob Allan, Philip Brohan and maybe Chris Folland. Happy to be contacted on the 27th. Geoff Jenkins knows I'll be there. Geoff has tried to see if anyone at UEA will be in London at the meeting on the 27th, but I think without success. Cheers Phil At 11:47 21/01/2005, you wrote: Dear Colleagues, you may be aware that "The Scientific Alliance" will be holding a meeting on Thursday 27 January with a sceptical stance on climate change (see below). Defra and DTI expect that as a result various technical questions are likely to come in from the press to our respective press offices. We would like to be able to put them in touch with scientists who can speak authoritatively about Climate Change. Of course there may be only a few enquiries but we would like to ensure that the press get a balanced picture. Would you be prepared to have any such enquiries passed on to you on this occasion. If so could you let us know what contact details you would be prepared for us to give to the press. Grateful if you direct your response to Tony McDougal many thanks David David Warrilow T 020 7082 8149 F 020 7082 8151 Mobile 0774 776 8840 3/B3 Ashdown House Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes. The original of this email was scanned for viruses by the Government Secure Intranet (GSi) virus scanning service supplied exclusively by Energis in partnership with MessageLabs. On leaving the GSi this email was certified virus-free Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- The original of this email was scanned for viruses by the Government Secure Intranet (GSi) virus scanning service supplied exclusively by Energis in partnership with MessageLabs. On leaving the GSi this email was certified virus-free Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1532. 2005-01-28 10:34:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 28 10:34:22 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: The Recent Sahel Drought is Real] to: Aiguo Dai , plamb@gcn.ou.edu, Kevin Trenberth , Mike Hulme , Ping Ping Xie Dear All, At a meeting earlier this week, I heard that the Chappell/Agnew paper has been talked about at quite high circles within the Royal Met. Soc. . Questions of how it got past reviewers etc. The new President of the RMS is from Salford and expressed to the Awards Committee (the meeting earlier this week) his regret that the paper was published. The reviewing procedures of IJC are being looked into within a broader study of all RMS journals. The main driver behind this is the Research Assessment Exercise in UK Universities - people are publishing in journals with high impact factors and these tend to be AMS and AGU journals for detailed science papers. Also the response to our comment was rejected by two reviewers. A revised one though has been submitted and is going to three new reviewers. I've seen neither version. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2795. 2005-01-28 16:15:49 ______________________________________________________ cc: Stephen.Juggins@newcastle.ac.uk,Valerie Masson-Delmotte ,eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, Sandy Tudhope ,dan.charman@plymouth.ac.uk date: Fri Jan 28 16:15:49 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Dirk to: dirk.verschuren@gfz-potsdam.de Dear Dirk good news re your not dropping out . We are happy to have you and if you can do what you can in the time available this would be good. Valerie and I will send a general message Monday am to all WP1 folk to say what is needed now, but we thought it best to to get back to you straight away re specific points raised in Steve's message. First, I hope you will be responsible with Dan (and help from Sandy Tudhope) for co-ordinating Task 1.4 of WP1 following the concept as we saw it in the preliminary proposal. Of course you would focus on North African (and north and south of this area) work - on the collection, comparison, integration, interpretation of the high and lower resolution records that relate to hydrology. I see Dan as taking the strain regarding the more Northern areas - with obvious attention to wetlands and Sandy helping with dynamic links (and ENSO?). Of course there are other records and there will be a need to restrict "new" collection/laboratory analyses to very specific , justified (and accepted by SC) situations , but the high resolution core(s) you told me of would be relevant. I suggest you think in terms of a person to work on this AND data compilation - perhaps a (cheap) postdoc for 3 years , and money for internal WP1 meetings - say 250KEuro ? FOR NOW - we need you to liaise with Dan and Sandy to produce what you can for the Task 1.4(see attached old version of proposal to start from) . We will need a "state of the Art" Scientific objectives and approach details . Your whole Task 1.4 section can only be 1 page A4 single spaced max. AFTER LONG DISCUSSION IN LONDON- it was decided that this task would NOW NOT INCLUDE the paleoflood work - and Eystein will be communicating with Bennitto to (regretfully ) to inform him that we have had to remove his contribution (please do not contact him until Eystein has done this). We will not put a specific focus on floods (though of course some work can be done using existing European flood data), because of Rudolf Brazdil , and we hope , he will accept to be part of WP1 but put some of his requested funds into WP6 . Hence you 3 can concentrate more on the concept of large scale hydologic variability ,monsoon changes , north south linkages etc. The problem with ENSO persists. I know you Sandy want to focus entirely on this, but we could compromise perhaps and you do part this and part Europe? It was decided that we will (somewhere) include data/model comparison with US droughts , but this does not require effort on out part other than minor data compilation of existing records [Eystein, we therefore need to ensure Cook is one of the associated americans]. We will put together an appendix of preliminary records to be used in each task - just to show impressive new potential integration (but not a priority for now). You do not need to sign any forms officially at this stage - just get approval presumably from your department internally . If we ever get there, forms will be handled at contract negotiation. So get in touch with each other (resend ideas , do not assume your previous emails went to each other), get exchanging ideas and draft what you can . ON monday , the specific letter to all people will come round , with requested timeline , task, deliverables re budget and precise format of Science writing that we need to assemble the proposal. Then Valerie and I will have to look at the whole thing in the context of our total 3.7 M budget. IT WILL ALL SEEM WORTH IT IN 2006 All the very best Keith and Valerie Keith's home number is 441953 851013 mobile 0776 9732 685 At 12:37 28/01/2005, Stephen Juggins wrote: Hi Keith, copy to Eystein, Oyvind Just had a long chat with Dirk. It's OK, he's not in Millenium! The reason he was pulling out is over committment this year. Anyway, I managed to persuade him to change his mind - the project won't start until Jan 2006 at the very earliest, so any input won't be needed until next year. He was also unsure what to ask for - I suggested he should cost in a post-doc for 3 years and 2 meetings per year, plus some "data workshops". Keith - can you give him some guidance on costing these so they are in line with what others are asking for. I told him that you would look at the overall budges for WP1 and adjust if necessary to meet the target. His only short term problem is revising any text for the proposal - he leaves for Kenya next Thursday. I realised that Eystein has only sent the documents to the ssc people so Keith, can you forward these to Dirk and let him know exactly what you need from him for the text and budgets. Finally, Dirk was worried that he wouldn't be able to get any paperwork & signatures from his Uni but as I understood from the meeting yesterday this was not needed. Is this right? If there are any forms to fill in we had better get these to him asap. Cheers, Steve Steve Juggins School of Geography, Politics & Sociology University of Newcastle Tel: +44 (0)191 222 8799 Newcastle upon Tyne Fax: +44 (0)191 222 5421 NE1 7RU, UK Mobile: +44 07740054905 [1]http://www.campus.ncl.ac.uk/staff/Stephen.Juggins/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1442. 2005-01-28 16:17:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 28 16:17:58 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Science on Landsea etc] to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Thanks. I assumed there was a lot more to this, but was only getting a small percent of information. It is amazing what some people believe. People who should know better. They should know how these sorts of things with the media get reported. I've seen this before with Ben Santer and Mike Mann and yours seems just as bad. Just have to stick in there and it might eventually blow away - although it hasn't with Ben and Mike. Have a good weekend ! Cheers Phil At 15:55 28/01/2005, you wrote: Phil I have been under vicious attacks here following Landsea's putting his resignation letter on line. Really nasty articles from Pat Michaels and Roy Spencer, both with absolutely wrong stuff in them. Also a vicious nasty letter from Bill Gray that went to many people. And the one that hurts most was from Peter Webster who, in his typical fashion, believed this stuff and went on the praise Landsea and criticise me. We had several unpleasant email exchanges that also were copied to many people. Susan has been laying low. Jim Hurrell is ralleying some support, here is what I sent him. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, How and why did all this make the news? I've seen it in a number of emails. Will there be similar items each time we gain or lose a CA? I don't seem to have had any relief to workload since getting the draft off. The small Reanalysis meeting Lennart organised though was a welcome break to discuss science. Have a good weekend ! Cheers Phil At 15:18 28/01/2005, you wrote: See attached in latest issue. It could have been worse, but not a helpful report. I agree with Kerry Emanuel, but what I said has been severely distorted by Landsea. Kevin -- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [2]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3537. 2005-01-28 17:04:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jan 28 17:04:11 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: Crok Story on Hocky Stick - English to: "Folland, Chris" , JOLLIFFE IAN Chris, Have you seen this web site? [1]http://www.realclimate.org/ Perhaps you should on this issue. Raising and lowering a series (i.e. changing the base period) won't affect the correlation matrix. So all the work CRU has done in this regard is unaffected by this. I also think it shouldn't make much difference to PCs calculated with the covariance matrix. It might change the order of some. This appears to relate to Mike's calculation of PCs using SVD. I'm not good enough at Maths to know why. Mike does answer all this on the above web site. Also the paper they mention coming out in GRL was reviewed by hydrologists. It seems you can specify an editor and if the editor doesn't know the subject they can get it reviewed or send to one who does. The editor here had an agenda. The web page is interesting, but whatever you do don't delve too deeply. It will just eat into your time and in the end be completely useless. Ray Bradley wanted something put there on 2004's temperatures. I gave him the WMO press release from mid-Dec04. Some of the comments on that are ridiculous. It has generated quite a few. The whole web site has got a lot of interest, but it is only for those with time on their hands. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil At 16:32 28/01/2005, Folland, Chris wrote: Phil If you base the data anomalies in an EOF analysis on a recent climatological period, does this really change the shape of the time series compared to the full period. This is a common method due to data limitations. This seems to be one key criticism of the Mann hockey stick (not the only one). Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) subject: RE: Concerns Tom Crowley grant through PNL re IDAG to: "Baroni, Eva M" Eva, Thanks for the quick reply. I'll see what I can do next week re billing. Have a good weekend ! Phil At 17:12 28/01/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, I pulled my file for your contract, and it looks like you have billed some of the funds authorized. Your last invoice was for work through April 30, 2004. The outstanding balance is $19,195.40. That icludes funding from the first two years of the agreement. I'll be adding the third year's funds in February. To answer your questions, you can certainly wait until the next meeting to bill us. As I said, the balance is $19,195.40 which means that you haven't quite billed out the full amount of the first year's funds; your agreement is scheduled for $17,500 per year. The funding amount includes both labor and travel. If the travel is less than expected, you can have those funds for your labor. I do ask that you bill us for your efforts since last April and for the coming meeting before too long. I'd also prefer to get another invoice toward the end of the summer for any effort you charge throughout the summer months. Our DOE client has been under a great deal of pressure to reduce the uncosted balances by the end of this fiscal year. We can assist them in that effort by bringing our billings and payments up to date before the end of September. Thanks for checking into this. Best Regards, Eva -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Friday, January 28, 2005 8:40 AM To: Baroni, Eva M Subject: Concerns Tom Crowley grant through PNL re IDAG Dear Eva, Gabi Hegerl emailed me the other day to check something for our meeting in April. This got me thinking as she said you'd told her someone hadn't claimed anything in the last year. I wondered if this was me. So, I have a few questions for you. Q1 When should I next put in a claim? Can it wait till our next meeting in April? Q2 How much money have I yet to claim? Q3 Is there a split between travel and work hours? My memory is that it is altogether. My reason for asking is that I've recently moved a lot of things round in my office and I can't find the files that would tell me the answers. They are here somewhere and will turn up. I hoped you might have the info to hand more easily. Best Regards Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5063. 2005-01-28 18:39:14 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 28 Jan 2005 18:39:14 +0000 from: Keith Briffa subject: IMPRINT - with attachment and pasted in message! to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,masson@lsce.saclay.cea.fr, hutterli@climate.unibe.ch,karin@natgeo.su.se,A.Lotter@bio.uu.nl, dirk.verschuren@UGent.be,carin.andersson@geo.uib.no, John.Birks@bot.uib.no,dan.charman@plymouth.ac.uk,juerg.beer@eawag.ch, hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de Dear Workpackage 1 Leaders First sorry for the lack of communication , but following the London meeting we are now in a position to give some details of where we are , and hopefully , where we are going . IMPRINT is now in detailed construction mode! We need to concentrate in the first instance on our own sections , but we all need to feel part of the whole wokpackage concept , and ultimately be convinced that the whole proposal hangs together well . We are not just data people (though within our WP we have the opportunity for exciting reanalyses, inter -archive comparisons , integrated larger-scale interpretation) and here we have a great opportunity to really get involved in the larger data -model comparison and get our teeth into the issues of anthropogenic versus natural change , and future climate uncertainties. Our people can bid for money under workpackages 6 and 7 and we should be thinking now of where the particular interests lie. Please note that the WP1 work will only span 3 years maximum and detailed plans and requests will need to concur with this . We are appending the version of the longer proposal that was put together (prior to the shortened submission). This is a starting point for you to start reconsidering /rethinking , if needed, details of the new sections . Valerie and I will appreciate any suggestions re the background to the science that we will have to write to introduce the whole workpackage. Suggestions for improving the whole concept proposal and clarifying the logic and value of IMPRINT in terms of Future Climate and Society will also be welcomed by Eystein. The time for putting the full proposal together is ,of course, very short ie WEEKS only We must now refine the science and work out very specific details of what is to be done , and by who, by what time , and for what cost. We will send details of the timetable and what is needed as regards writing on Monday morning - when Eystein has forwarded his specific ideas to us , along with the initial budget requests from partners. Ultimately , Valerie and I will have to get the budget for the whole WP done to 3.7 million Euro . This has to be divided according to the science that will get done and so , we will be loading the first responsibility on you folk to assess the requests (your own included) in the light of what the partners have requested in your Tasks, and then helping us with deciding where to trim. For now , you just need to get in contact with your partner leader as this will have to be a genuine joint effort. Lots of us have meetings and teaching etc and so we need to try to cover for each other as best we can. We will send the message to all partners on Monday but we would ask that you then get them involved fully in the ideas, balance and writing (if you think appropriate). The responsibility for the sections of the WP1 plan will be first your responsibility but we are a community not a pyramid. We will have limited space so then it will be up to Valerie and I to put the sections together. We will let you know how much text we need from you on Monday - but you can already start thinking in terms of "state of the art" , "areas for advancing the science" "innovation" and importantly "relevance and links to other workpackages". You will need to organise and synthesise contributions from your partners in these areas , as well as judging their requests . We need to make the work sound exciting and feasible. We do not wish to seem dictatorial but when lots of people are involved , we need to be pretty strict or we will not give Eystein the time he needs to review and revise the whole proposal. Please be patient if we do not at first acknowledge messages - just prompt. PLEASE SEND ALL MESSAGES FROM NOW ON TO VALERIE AND MYSELF , and I suggest that you consider cc'ing to ALL TASK LEADERS to allow everyone to keep in touch and comment if appropriate. We are thrilled and grateful that you are have all agreed to take this on and we are in no doubt that IMPRINT will be an exciting advance for our science. Thank you all very much for agreeing to take the strain over the next few weeks Keith and Valerie P.S. another recent message from Bergen is also appended for you information Dear WP-leaders When going through what budget information we have received from the partners, we have seen that there was in most cases a genuine lack in budget-specifications down to task level. Most, with a few exceptions, only sent in the total numbers, which they have to for the forms of the proposal, but haven't noticed that we also need resources specified on the task level. Knowing this, and also that things will change after our meeting there is really no purpose in sending out the various partner requests to you, as we believe that this won't help to clarify what the factual budget situation is. In order to get an accurate overview of the various budgets requests I have attached a spreadsheet where the proper numbers can be inserted before it is returned to us (write only down the requested amount from the EU!). As we agreed upon in London it is up to you to collect this information from the partners that constitute your specific work package. This process will hopefully give us the coherent picture of the overall budget. I have also attached the original spreadsheet we need to fill in and which gives us the total resources for the partners according to the cost model, in case some of the partners haven't received it (or occasionally lost it) and/or if you need to make new ones based on the latest information. Thus: We need the budget request - what the partners request/you think they deserve for each task on the spreadsheet, filled in for the whole WP. The deadline for submitting this information is 10 February and I kindly ask you to respect this, there really is very little room for any delays. If you have further questions please let me know and I will answer you as fast as possible. Cheers, Øyvind -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\IMPRINTold_task_descr1.doc" 4488. 2005-01-31 15:08:38 ______________________________________________________ cc: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk, Dominique Raynaud date: Mon Jan 31 15:08:38 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Brussels and Imprint to: Eystein Jansen thanks for this news Eystein I too talked briefly with Hans , but not Ib. It would still be useful as you say to emphasise the focus in our project on assessing future potential change and mechanisms - as far as I can see , the Millennium proposal seeks to develop new proxies , but with much attention as to why. We need to make the "value" of our data and data/model work very clear , so they can defend IMPRINT when the anti- paleo lobby get to work. I will certainly try to push this unofficially in talks with Ib . Subltle interventions by Andre and Jean -Claude could be most useful here also. Keith At 14:27 31/01/2005, Eystein Jansen wrote: Hi Keith, Simon and Dominique, I talked with Brelen today. He is handling the paleo-IP in the Commission. They have not yet found a replacement, so he continues, which is good in this process. He was very friendly. I had sent him an overviw of the partners which he had asked for to avoid inviting people as experts reveiwers who are involved in the proposal. He complimented our ability to attract the bets groups in Europe. I invited myself to Brussels, and he said they were hesitant to do this because they are afraid of paying favours to any special project. He said he would check with Troen about this policy, and came back and said they would prefer to avoid such meetings during this phase. Thus, we need to do remote lobbying. Since you all have good contacts, or your institutions have, it would be wise to contact Brelen, and more importantly Troen or other people in the Global Change Unit to ensure that they a) Realise how the Imprint approach is a major undertaking of the best European labs to really make paleoclimate make a difference to the predictions and modelling activities. b) Underscore the close connections to Ensembles, c) Go through with them how they interpret the wording of the call, to make sure we have a joint understanding of what it means in terms of being relevant for predictions and climate dynamics. From the review of the competing Millennium proposal it seems that these aspects of the call were not considered much. We need to influence the comission as far as possible so that they know what they will miss if the project is not funded. Best regards, Eystein -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ----------------------- The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students More info at: [1]www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4408. 2005-01-31 15:27:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk, Dominique Raynaud date: Mon, 31 Jan 2005 15:27:21 +0100 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Brussels and Imprint to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, Simon and Dominique, I talked with Brelen today. He is handling the paleo-IP in the Commission. They have not yet found a replacement, so he continues, which is good in this process. He was very friendly. I had sent him an overviw of the partners which he had asked for to avoid inviting people as experts reveiwers who are involved in the proposal. He complimented our ability to attract the bets groups in Europe. I invited myself to Brussels, and he said they were hesitant to do this because they are afraid of paying favours to any special project. He said he would check with Troen about this policy, and came back and said they would prefer to avoid such meetings during this phase. Thus, we need to do remote lobbying. Since you all have good contacts, or your institutions have, it would be wise to contact Brelen, and more importantly Troen or other people in the Global Change Unit to ensure that they a) Realise how the Imprint approach is a major undertaking of the best European labs to really make paleoclimate make a difference to the predictions and modelling activities. b) Underscore the close connections to Ensembles, c) Go through with them how they interpret the wording of the call, to make sure we have a joint understanding of what it means in terms of being relevant for predictions and climate dynamics. From the review of the competing Millennium proposal it seems that these aspects of the call were not considered much. We need to influence the comission as far as possible so that they know what they will miss if the project is not funded. Best regards, Eystein -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ----------------------- The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students More info at: www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1458. 2005-02-01 08:46:30 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Feb 1 08:46:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: DEGREES OF FREEDOM to: "Folland, Chris" Chris, Thanks for this ! Not sure why exactly, but thanks. Printed it off and had a quick look. Odd ideas all round. You will obviously point out the omission of all the SST (or NMAT) data !!! The TC ideas seem most odd. Also the time series of TCs doesn't look right either. I will read the paper at some stage. TCs affecting radiative forcing is novel - unbelievable ! Let me know how the meeting goes. I've heard it is difficult to get a word in edgeways with Illarinov. None of the usual Russians on the author list, nor any of their references. Not seen the presumably WMO book from 1964. If the paper does come out will need to send on to a few people if we are to address in Ch 3. So try and find out if they propose submitting it somewhere. No rush though as nothing will happen now till late April on the chapter. Have fun at the meeting - fun isn't the right word, but can't think of better one ! Cheers Phil At 17:25 31/01/2005, you wrote: Phil Thanks. We are doing some back of the envelope calculations to convince Illarionov et al (chief economics adviser to Putin and very anti Kyoto) that their very odd paper submitted to the Dangerous Anthropogenic Change Conference but not accepted - only because its not a topic for discussion - is out by an order of magnitude. He claims we do not know global temp even in 2004 to better than +-0.7C so we don't know the trend. David Warrilow is setting up a meeting it seems with several of us. Has some even stranger ideas later in the paper. Attached. Please DO NOT PASS ON TO ANYONE AT THIS STAGE. Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)<[2]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[3]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 31 January 2005 16:47 To: Folland, Chris Subject: Re: DEGREES OF FREEDOM Chris, It depends on the timescale - although there isn't too much difference between the interannual and the decadal. The number is nearer 20 than 60. 60 was nearer the mark for seasonal and over a 100 for monthly. I've not looked at that paper for ages. Cheers Phil At 16:13 31/01/2005, you wrote: Phil Can you clarify the number of spatial degrees of freedom annually in global. A quick look at your paper in 1997 suggests 20 not 60. Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [4]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) [5]http://www.metoffice.[6]gov.uk Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2355. 2005-02-01 10:15:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Feb 1 10:15:53 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Dai's PDSI dataset to: "Femmie en Gerard van der Schrier" Gerard I agree that this looks very much like a post-analysis truncation . What geographic area is represented by these numbers? What seems even more strange though, is the inhomogeneity at around 1956 , and perhaps between 1956 an 1980. This surely is not the result of a natural circulation related phenomenon. Have you tried comparing any of his previuos extreme maps against latest ones (and yours in overlap region)? You could plot PDF for particular dry and wet years to see if there is a sharp truncation at pdsi values of +or _ 15. Give me a ring (and I wil call you back) Keith At 07:21 01/02/2005, you wrote: Keith, It seems that Dai et al. have managed to get rid of the 'spikes' in their latest PDSI dataset (the one published in J. Hydrometeorology, 2004). At a cost though. Attached is a figure of the mean, the minimum value and the maximum value of the PDSI for each of their maps (horizontal in the figure is time in months, starting in January 1870). It seems to me that the max. and min. values are artificially bounded between +15 and -15. What do you think? My guess is that they, either during the PDSI calculations or as a post-processing routine, reset the largest PDSI values to be within +/-15. Cheers, Gerard -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4649. 2005-02-01 10:45:41 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Feb 1 10:45:41 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Dai's PDSI dataset to: "Femmie en Gerard van der Schrier" OK- just talked to Phil and he says the calibration period is probably 1951-80 - hence the changing range (and means at zero) but it is still apparent that there is great asymmetry in the extreme values, much wetter than drier, and perhaps this is a regional bias (poor data in some ares for calibration?) . These extreme values may all lie in ares of poor data coverage .The comparisons with our European (and the US) grid will probably be much better behaved. Apparently Dai (and Trenberth) are making much of the declining trend in recent years, but this Figure shows that this is the result of less wet rather than more dry - probably an important point in terms of impact. Keith Gerard I agree that this looks very much like a post-analysis truncation . What geographic area is represented by these numbers? What seems even more strange though, is the inhomogeneity at around 1956 , and perhaps between 1956 an 1980. This surely is not the result of a natural circulation related phenomenon. Have you tried comparing any of his previuos extreme maps against latest ones (and yours in overlap region)? You could plot PDF for particular dry and wet years to see if there is a sharp truncation at pdsi values of +or _ 15. Give me a ring (and I wil call you back) Keith At 07:21 01/02/2005, you wrote: Keith, It seems that Dai et al. have managed to get rid of the 'spikes' in their latest PDSI dataset (the one published in J. Hydrometeorology, 2004). At a cost though. Attached is a figure of the mean, the minimum value and the maximum value of the PDSI for each of their maps (horizontal in the figure is time in months, starting in January 1870). It seems to me that the max. and min. values are artificially bounded between +15 and -15. What do you think? My guess is that they, either during the PDSI calculations or as a post-processing routine, reset the largest PDSI values to be within +/-15. Cheers, Gerard -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 502. 2005-02-01 13:39:31 ______________________________________________________ cc: cru@uea.ac.uk date: Tue, 01 Feb 2005 13:39:31 +0000 from: Clare Goodess subject: Freedom of Information Act to: cru.internal@uea.ac.uk Dear all All CRU staff should have received important emails from Alan Preece on 14 and 29 January concerning the Freedom of Information Act which came into full force on 1 January 2005 - together with a leaflet. (If you are a member of staff and haven't received these, please let me know). It is important that we all comply with this act. If anybody in CRU (staff or student) receives a request which refers to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), please forward it immediately to the Faculty of Science FOIA contact - Mike McGarvie (x 3229, m.mcgarvie@uea.ac.uk) and copy it to Phil and myself. If you are unsure about the request or it is unusual, please copy to Phil and myself and we'll decide if we need to consult Mike McGarvie. Best wishes, Clare Dr Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: +44 -1603 592875 Fax: +44 -1603 507784 Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm 3126. 2005-02-01 14:30:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de,juerg.beer@eawag.ch,Valerie Masson-Delmotte date: Tue Feb 1 14:30:09 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: IMPRINT WP1 to: "IC Prentice, Earth Sciences" Colin thanks - I will pas on to the Task Leaders(Jurg Beer and Hubertus Fischer). I presume Fortunat has had a chance to discuss the London meeting with you. In many ways the process of putting this proposal together is very unsatisfactory. There has been little opportunity for the majority of people to discuss the science, still less to argue about the various budgeting decisions. As is usual , the request for total budget (and its as yet nominal distribution) has been largely random, influenced by competing requirements for "critical mass" and "lack of conflict" - as regards what could have been competing proposals .We find ourselves with a current situation in which Work Package 1 will request 3.7 million Euro - to fund 5 Tasks . The Task leaders will co-ordinate the writing of Science and weighing of budget requests in this light , and later Valerie Masson and I will try to balance the whole Workpackage. A message will come round soon, with requests for help and details of how to submit spreadsheet budgets. thanks again Keith 1/01/2005, you wrote: Keith, I attach a suggested budget for our participation in WP1. Best wishes Colin Prentice ---------------------- IC Prentice, Earth Sciences Colin.Prentice@bristol.ac.uk -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1171. 2005-02-01 15:40:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Feb 1 15:40:12 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Request from Nature to: "Schiermeier, Quirin" Dear Quirin, Can you call me early tomorrow as I have a few things to finish today? Can you call between 08.30-09.30 tomorrow UK time, so one hour later your time? Number is +44 1603 592090 . I would prefer not to talk much about the GRL paper, as McIntyre and McKittirick are wrong and the paper should never have been accepted by GRL. There is a lot on this on this web site [1]http://www.realclimate.org/ . I know this site is partly run by Mike Mann. The GRL paper was not reviewed by paleo people but by hydrologists. The GRL paper is wrong because it just can't have been that warm in the 15th century. The paper is a complete outlier. Happy to talk about the Moberg et al. paper. I've seen an earlier draft, but I know from Anders that the results haven't changed since I heard him present it at a meeting in 2004. Cheers Phil At 14:59 01/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr Jones, I am working on a news article for Nature about the issue of temperature variability in the last 1,000 years, pegged to the lMcIntyre/McKitrick paper in GRL, and a paper by Anders Moberg in the 10 February issue in Nature. It would be interested in your viewpoint. Can I call you today or later this week? Thank you very much for your help with this. Sincerely, Quirin Schiemreier Quirin Schiermeier German Correspondent of Nature Josephspitalstrasse 15 D-80331 Munich Germany tel + 49 89 5490 5714 fax + 49 89 5490 5720 q.schiermeier@nature.com ******************************************************************************** DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is confidential and should not be used by anyone who is not the original intended recipient. If you have received this e-mail in error please inform the sender and delete it from your mailbox or any other storage mechanism. Neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept liability for any statements made which are clearly the sender's own and not expressly made on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or one of its agents. 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Macmillan Publishers Limited Registered in England and Wales with registered number 785998 Registered Office Brunel Road, Houndmills, Basingstoke RG21 6XS ******************************************************************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3359. 2005-02-01 16:57:20 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Feb 1 16:57:20 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: SOI and NAO to: Dennis Shea Dennis, All is well at home. Hope you're well also and Kevin isn't working you too hard - or passing on his troubles due to Landsea. I know he won't be but he seems to have been dragged through the mill over it. At least the two of us know what to expect later on in the IPCC process. I hope it subsides and doesn't get to Ben Santer and Mike Mann proportions. The issue with Mike is about to come to the surface again as a paper will appear in GRL saying his curve is all wrong. The new curve is so wrong it is unbelievable that even GRL appears to have been nobbled. As for Darwin and Tahiti, several years ago I compared the two series with what we had, what CPC had then and what the Australians had for the two sites. All differences post 1931 probably resulted from this. For Tahiti they are small except for 2hPa in 1936. For Darwin, only Sept82 can be considered large. I did the comparisons with Rob Allan who was then at CSIRO (he's now at the HC in Exeter). I think we assumed the Australians knew what the number should be. I wouldn't have thought that NCEP-NCAR would be good enough to resolve small differences. Doubt if ERA-40 would either. I do recall doing a little more work on the early years at Tahiti, when doing this paper. Können, G.P., Jones, P.D., Kaltofen, M.H. and Allan, R.J., 1998: Pre-1866 extensions of the Southern Oscillation Index using early Indonesian and Tahitian meteorological readings. J. Climate 11, 2325-2339. Maybe that is why there are diffs with CPC and WMSC. Or maybe someone at CPC made some changes. Hope this helps. At 16:20 01/02/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil > don't think anyone answered your email of Dec 20. The person who > responds to cru@uea.ac.uk has been off sick since the New Year. We think > we've just found some of the emails that have come through. I thought something was up. I have asked questions before and received replys in prompt fashion. > > The base period for the SOI on our web site should be 1951-80. Are there > any other questions? THX ... Not really any specifics This was some 'deep infrastructure' work related to our section's WWW page: [1]http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/ We download the CPC darwin/tahiti every month and we compute the SOI using Trenberth (MWR, 1984). Kevin wanted a detailed comparison of the CRU and our [Climate Analysis Section] SOIs. Part of this was a value-by-value check. One thing I did was to print out values where the differences were >0.2mb I was hoping the the World Monthly SFc Station Climatology (WMSC) would resolve any major differences. However, Wilbur Spangler thought that this was not an independent dataset. For more recent data (1950-pres) to possibly help resolve differences, I interpolated the SLP given by Reanalysis. eg: the 197907 interpolated reanalysis revealed that the CRU was correct. Reanalysis showed the value to be approx 1014.? [forget exact number]. The funny thing to me is that in more recent years, sometimes the CRU agrees with WMSC and in other time and CPC agrees with the WMSC. Interpolation using reanalysis does not help. Hope all is well with you and your family! Best Regards Dennis yyyymm (0) Darwin: 197205 CRU=1012.4 CPC=1013.7 Dif= -1.3 WMSC=1013.7 (1) Darwin: 197303 CRU=1007.4 CPC=1007.0 Dif= 0.4 WMSC=1007.0 (2) Darwin: 197310 CRU=1009.6 CPC=1010.0 Dif= -0.4 WMSC=1010.0 (3) Darwin: 197412 CRU=1006.5 CPC=1006.1 Dif= 0.4 WMSC=1005.6 (4) Darwin: 197811 CRU=1009.5 CPC=1009.1 Dif= 0.4 WMSC=1009.5 (5) Darwin: 197907 CRU=1014.6 CPC=1011.1 Dif= 3.5 WMSC=1011.1 *CRU [Re] (6) Darwin: 198209 CRU=1014.3 CPC=1014.0 Dif= 0.3 WMSC=1014.3 (7) Darwin: 199010 CRU=1011.4 CPC=1010.9 Dif= 0.5 WMSC=1011.4 (0) (0) Tahiti: 189601 CRU=1010.8 CPC=1011.8 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1010.8 (1) Tahiti: 189602 CRU=1011.7 CPC=1012.7 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1011.7 (2) Tahiti: 189603 CRU=1010.6 CPC=1011.6 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1010.6 (3) Tahiti: 189604 CRU=1010.4 CPC=1011.4 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1010.4 (4) Tahiti: 189608 CRU=1013.1 CPC=1014.1 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1013.1 (5) Tahiti: 189609 CRU=1012.7 CPC=1013.7 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1012.7 (6) Tahiti: 189610 CRU=1012.7 CPC=1013.7 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1012.7 (7) Tahiti: 189611 CRU=1011.2 CPC=1012.2 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1011.2 (8) Tahiti: 189612 CRU=1010.2 CPC=1011.2 Dif= -1.0 WMSC=1010.2 (9) Tahiti: 190504 CRU=1010.0 CPC=1008.0 Dif= 2.0 WMSC=1008.0 (10) Tahiti: 190505 CRU=1011.0 CPC=1008.1 Dif= 2.9 WMSC=1008.1 (11) Tahiti: 190506 CRU=1012.0 CPC=1010.2 Dif= 1.8 WMSC=1010.2 (12) Tahiti: 193604 CRU=1014.2 CPC=1012.2 Dif= 2.0 WMSC=1014.2 (13) Tahiti: 194012 CRU=1007.5 CPC=1009.5 Dif= -2.0 WMSC=1007.5 (14) Tahiti: 195810 CRU=1012.1 CPC=1012.4 Dif= -0.3 WMSC=1012.2 (15) Tahiti: 196306 CRU=1013.4 CPC=1013.1 Dif= 0.3 WMSC=1013.3 (16) Tahiti: 196903 CRU=1012.6 CPC=1012.3 Dif= 0.3 WMSC=1012.6 (17) Tahiti: 197702 CRU=1011.8 CPC=1012.1 Dif= -0.3 WMSC=1011.8 (18) Tahiti: 198106 CRU=1014.2 CPC=1014.5 Dif= -0.3 WMSC=1014.2 (19) Tahiti: 198109 CRU=1014.8 CPC=1014.5 Dif= 0.3 WMSC=1014.8 (20) Tahiti: 198204 CRU=1011.9 CPC=1012.2 Dif= -0.3 WMSC=1011.9 (21) Tahiti: 198304 CRU=1011.0 CPC=1010.4 Dif= 0.6 WMSC=1010.4 (22) Tahiti: 198411 CRU=1012.5 CPC=1012.8 Dif= -0.3 WMSC=1012.8 (23) Tahiti: 199704 CRU=1012.3 CPC=1012.8 Dif= -0.5 WMSC=1012.2 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 594. 2005-02-02 10:23:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Feb 2 10:23:07 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: For your eyes only to: mann@virginia.edu Mike, Just received these - for your interest really. Maybe you've not seen the Dutch one in final form. Don't know what the German one says ! A paper will be in the Feb 10 issue of Nature. The press should be onto you about it at some point soon. Keith and Tim away this week. I'm off Feb 6-10 and 12-20, so won't be commenting unless called this week. Just had a call, so said what I was going to send. MM is so off the wall. Even the paper to come out on Feb 10 (which has problems and issues) has the 15th century as one of the cool ones. This will be the point to make if I do get any calls. In fact the MBH98/99 15th century is the nearest (but still miles away) from MM. Esper, Briffa, me, Crowley, the boreholes and Uncle Tom Cobbly and all (even von Storch et al) are slightly cooler than you in the 15th century. What a truly appalling article. I assume you have chapter and verse on realclimate.org. The IPCC Chapters (ZODs) are there on a protected site. You should get a copy from either Peck, Keith or Eystein for interest. Kevin Trenberth and me will be sending our chapter to all our CAs. I assume Ch 6 will do the same. Kevin seems to have been through the mill recently. Chris Landsea said he wouldn't be a CA for us in November. Why it has surfaced now is beyond me. He didn't resign in January. He was in a polite terms told by Susan Solomon that we could do without him in late November. Just to show you I do other things here are two other pdfs. One is the paper that I sent you some time ago to help a case against Pielke. The other shows that HadRM3 needs validation against observations - something the HC don't seem too keen to tell people when they say how good their RM is. This paper is in a 2004 issue of CD despite the filename CD used when they sent it to us. I'll try and dig out some long instrumental series to send to Scott. In a month or so, send me an email saying what about Illarionov and I'll see if I can send you a paper of his I have. The HC are hoping to discuss it with him this week in Exeter. In it he argues that the error on the instrumental warming is +/- 0.7 deg C, so we can't say there is any warming at all ! His arguments make Cheers Phil PS Other two were too large so sending separately Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2532. 2005-02-02 13:57:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 13:57:53 +0000 from: "Folland, Chris" subject: MANN TEMPERATURE CURVE to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith John Houghton is writing a review chapter on Global Warming for Reviews in Physics. He has asked me to help with the observed climate change section soon. He currently has the Mann (1999) curve in his draft just like IPCC 2001 without reference to the von Storch et al paper which of course Simon Tett was an author and which looks convincing to me in deducing that variance is underestimated in Mann (1999). The Mann and Jones paper is more recent and has longer time series series but has the same perceived problems. How is your IPCC chapter dealing with this? What do you think is John Houghton's best approach to the pre-instrumental period back to 1000 or 200AD for hemispheric/global temperature? Any help/advice would be most gratefully received Best wishes Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) [2]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia 3220. 2005-02-03 10:04:30 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Feb 3 10:04:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Some comments to: Anders Moberg Anders, I thought I should send am email to clear my mind. I have spoken to the German correspondent from Nature, about your paper and also about MM. I spoke briefly about MM, saying their paper was so off the wall it shouldn't really be considered in the same story. I stressed the other series - not just MBH or MJ, and pointed out that of all these (so your new one, Esper, Keith's, mine, Crowley's, MBH, MJ and GCM ones like Hans') all show the 15th relatively cold. The ironic point for MM is that the closest (but it is still far away) to their series is MBH. So your paper coming out at this time is good in a way as their work can easily be shown to be so wrong. The German Nature correspondent who called yesterday (he said he would send back any quotes he'll use today or tomorrow) wanted to make a big thing of IPCC and MBH, but I kept on saying to him that this isn't the point. IPCC isn't the issue here and you seem to have been taken in by the skeptic media hype on this. What the temperature was or wasn't over the millennium doesn't influence politicians and has nothing whatsoever to do with Kyoto, which was written before MBH98 came out. I also feel that you've gone overboard about tree-ring standardization. Problems exist with all other proxies, it is just that dendro types are more open about these. No natural archives ensure an accurate reconstruction - this is your phrase (accurate reconstruction) but for all measures I know trees are the most widespread proxy and the second best (behind documentary) with all these measures. I believe that the dating errors in some of the low-frequency series you've used are too intolerable to be used. It is also virtually impossible to show whether they do respond to past temperature variations. As with all Nature figures, the plots are so small it is difficult to make the series out. Ch 6 of the current IPCC AR4 draft has plots of all the possible series (proxy on one series of plots and model simulations on another). Tim Osborn here has produced the plot. In the next month or so, it would be good if you could send your series to Tim (and also to me) and he can add it to the plot for the next draft. I reckon your plot would look very like Esper's series, but would go back to AD 1. Over the period from 1 to AD 900 your plot, MJ and Keith's series from QSJ in 2000 would be at much the same level. The whole issue is about the amplitude over the last 1000 years. Maybe your series will be in the supplementary information ? By the way on the model simulation plot, it is the ECHO-G model that is at odds with all the other models, especially with the new NCAR GCM simulation. I would be careful about ECHO-G. DMI have run the same model with slightly different forcing from 1500 and get quite a different NH series. Finally, the other thing that I know is wrong with your series is that is just has to be too low in the 1500-1750 period. I need to do lots more work to prove this, but this is my gut feeling. There are periods in the early instrumental (1730s) and in documentary series (for both Europe and China - some decades in the 1500s) that are relatively mild. I know the evidence only comes from 2 locations, but if Europe and China were warm the odds are that a lot of other places were also warm (little sea ice off Iceland etc). So I reckon you should have some years (maybe 20 in total) much closer to the 1961-90 period between 1500-1750. ENSO years will pull it very close as it did in 1877/78. Your level in the period 900-1100 is much closer to what my gut feeling is to as where it should be. Maybe you don't have enough high-freq proxies in that part of the spectrum (for 1500-1750). Well, I've said what I wanted to say. I can get back to all the non-paleo work I have to do and we can get on with the rest of EMULATE. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1051. 2005-02-03 11:47:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 3 Feb 2005 11:47:59 -0800 (PST) from: "David M. Ritson" subject: Your Science perspective letter. to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Tim Osborn and Keith Briffa, I read with interest (and some puzzlement) your perspective on "The Real Color .." relative to the work of Storch et al. If one was dealing with the effects of noise on a single proxy record your `perspective would make perfect sense. However the MBH98 results derive from an analysis of large families of proxies, as of course you are well aware. For instance the ITRB North American set of proxy records exceeds a number N in excess of seventy. Whatever the method of analysis, SVD or simple averaging, the extracted signal is independent of N whereas the noise contamination decreases as 1/N**.5. With seventy or so proxies, and I have veriified this with the ITRB series, low fequency noise distortion effects become small. The problems, (if there are problems), appear to lie elsewhere, for instance: 1) MBH normalize, ?calibrate, each proxy record with its detrended variance. Absent proxy-specific noise (disease, incect infestations etc) this would be problem free. However in the presence of proxy specific noise the variance is inflated by the canonical factor (1+m)**.5 where m is the ratio of proxy noise to the temperature noise, and hence their temperature scaling factors will be very significantly modified by the presence of such noies. MBH do not appear to make any mention of this? It is however calculable intrinsically from the data. Maybe MBH98, as a last anlysis step, scaled their results into agreement with the observed temperature anomaly record? If they failed to do this, analysis of their Northern tree data, shows that their temperature anomalies would be underestimated by a factor around 2.5. 2) For w5atever reason the ITRB proxy family shows qualitatively vey large differences in sensitivities and noise contamination. This of courses makes weighting and selection of data highly subjective? This, not short-segment standardization (a red-herring), lies at the heart of the M&M debate where M&M want to eliminate whole classes of tree-proxies. 3). MBH98 assume that `growth', X_i, is linearly related to real temperature anomalies for each proxy i via sensitivity factors K_i X_i=K_i*T + e where T is the temperature anomaly at time t and e is random noise. or X_i=K_i*f(t)+e where T=f(t) of course if (as seems likely) the sensitivity factor varies over centuries so that in terms of a slowly varying function F K_i=K0_i*(1+F(t)) or X_i=K0_i*(1+F(t)*f(t) +e This could equally as well be interpreted as X_i=K0_i*F'(T)+e where F'(t)=f(t)*(1+F(t) Without careful independent considerations, the presence or absence of low frequency temperature components is degenerate with growth sensitivity and, on multi-century scales, is indeterminate? I would certainly appreciate any clarifications you may have for the above. Frankly I am apalled by an apparent poverty of mechanisms in the climate field to resolve such problems, or alternatively to classify them as irresolvable? Sincerely Dave Ritson ================================================================================ David Ritson, Emeritus Prof of Physics Physics Dept Varian Physics Buiding 382 Via Pueblo Mall Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-4060, USA e-mail: ritson@slac.stanford.edu Telephone number: 650/723-2685 FAX Number: 650/725/6544 ================================================================================ 3598. 2005-02-03 16:40:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 3 Feb 2005 16:40:36 -0500 from: Henry Pollack subject: Re: cry for help! to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, I am now somewhat dug out of the deluge that awaited me upon my return from travels in mid-January. I never heard back from you about my comments sent on January 13 and copied below. However, I don't want to let the discussion grow cold. I know that my own contribution needs shaping and refining, but before I do more I need to know your reaction to my critique. To enable things to continue on a slow simmer, I would be grateful to see the latest 'zero-order' draft, along with a time-table for advancing to a 'first-order' draft. I will have more discussion (already I have a few more topics that I did not include in my rushed critique of January 13) to take up with you. Perhaps when Tim Osborne visits later this month he and I can discuss some of these. What do you make of the resignation of Chris Landsea from the IPCC tropical storms working group? Cheers, Henry ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Keith, Thanks for the latest version, which in the borehole discussion differs notably from the earlier version you sent, presumably due to comments from others. Because I am traveling again (leave Friday, back on Tuesday), I will send only a few general comments today, in no particular order. 1. Figure 1b, as discussed on pp.1,2 . This figure shows borehole results, and 'pseudo' borehole results, but the borehole curves are never mentioned explicitly in the text. The pseudo borehole results are the so-called 'optimal' results of Mann. Mike has never analyzed borehole temperatures; he simply manipulated reconstructions that I sent him, in a manner that dealt with spatial noise in a totally inadequate way. I think it is inappropriate to show the so-called 'optimal' reconstruction because it is flawed (even after the correction of gridding errors); the gridded curve should be the one shown in Pollack & Smerdon 2004, not the Briffa and Osborn 2002. Tim has told me of how that was constructed, and the P&S 04 version should be substituted. 2. Your discussion of uncertainty on pages 4,5 is good. The paragraph following acknowledges that there is generally greater centennial-scale variability in the ensemble of reconstructions than is displayed in the hockey stick. I think the hockey stick is effectively an end-member reconstruction, rather than a 'centrist' whose uncertainty bounds encompass all other reconstructions. 3. The statistical efforts (yours, others) to retain more long period variability in the dendro series have led to greater variability in the reconstructions, all toward a cooler past in the 16th-17th centuries. There is no a priori reason that the improved dendro series should have led to a cooler past; retention of more long period variability might conceivably have led to a warmer past, but it did not. That makes me think that the 16th-17th centuries were indeed cooler than the hockey stick portrays. 4. page 7. The Von Storch, Zorita model results suggest that the regression reconstruction techniques do not extract signals well in the presence of noise. There is a new paper soon to be submitted by Tom Crowley, Gabi Hegerl et al that reaches a similar conclusion. I believe that this is an important issue, one that is at the heart of my criticism of how Mike Mann re-analyzed the borehole results. May I suggest that in the FOD (first order draft) that you include a discussion of field reconstruction methodologies, particularly as to how they fare in the presence of noise. This would compare and contrast the regression techniques, the von Storch approach, the Crowley approach, the revised Rutherford Mann (2005)methodology, and perhaps the wavelet approach that Anders Moberg has proposed. I do not think that the problem that you cite in the last paragraph on p.7 is strictly with the particular simulation of Von Storch. The same general conclusions are reached in the new Crowley, Hegerl paper, which use different inputs. 5. It is not clear what you are saying on p.8, 3rd paragraph when you say that the GST histories imply a very much higher level of 'recent' warmth when compared to the general picture of proxy reconstructions. If 'recent' means the period of the instrumental record, the GST reconstructions compare very well, and if anything are a little muted. Moreover, both the von Storch and the new Crowley results show a very good overlap in the 17th century of borehole reconstructions with proxy reconstructions that use non-regression reconstruction methods. 6.GCM simulations are new players in the reconstruction arena. The work of Von Storch, Simon Tett, Caspar Ammann are examples. I think a discussion of how these are being integrated into the historical debate would be useful. You make the point that there are few new proxy data since the TAR. But what is new are the methods of reconstructing the climate field , and the role of the GCMs in testing certain methodologies with pseudo-proxies. The field has come quite a way from what is in the TAR, but your summary seems to convey the feeling that little has changed. 7. I am not offering any comments on the rest of the material (hydrological, etc.), as I have not had time to digest it yet. Thanks for the opportunity to comment! The comments are offered in the most constructive of spirit. You have undertaken a task of which I have not the slightest of envy. I am confident that the final product will be fair and balanced. Please let me know the time frame of when this document will undergo further shaping and refinement. I am grateful to have had the opportunity to participate. Cheers, Henry ___ ___ Henry N. Pollack [ \ / ] Professor of Geophysics | \/ | Department of Geological Sciences |MICHIGAN| University of Michigan [___]\/[___] Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1063, U.S.A. Phone: 734-763-0084 FAX: 734-763-4690 e-mail: hpollack@umich.edu URL: http://www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~hpollack URL: www-personal.umich.edu/~hpollack/book.html 315. 2005-02-04 11:16:56 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Feb 4 11:16:56 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: About a form (W-9) that Batelle have sent me to: "Baroni, Eva M" Eva, I have just received a general mailing from PNNL (from Teresa Robertson, the Accounts Payable Supervisor) with forms to fill in. 1. W-9 seems only to apply to US nationals. Can you confirm whether I need to fill this in or whether there is another form? I have filled in form W-7 and 8233 in the past. 2. A firm about an Automated Clearing House (ACH). Can I continue to receive cheques as and when I make claims? This works ! Most of the details I'll need for ACH will be difficult or impossible for me to find in the UK. Cheers Phil At 17:12 28/01/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, I pulled my file for your contract, and it looks like you have billed some of the funds authorized. Your last invoice was for work through April 30, 2004. The outstanding balance is $19,195.40. That icludes funding from the first two years of the agreement. I'll be adding the third year's funds in February. To answer your questions, you can certainly wait until the next meeting to bill us. As I said, the balance is $19,195.40 which means that you haven't quite billed out the full amount of the first year's funds; your agreement is scheduled for $17,500 per year. The funding amount includes both labor and travel. If the travel is less than expected, you can have those funds for your labor. I do ask that you bill us for your efforts since last April and for the coming meeting before too long. I'd also prefer to get another invoice toward the end of the summer for any effort you charge throughout the summer months. Our DOE client has been under a great deal of pressure to reduce the uncosted balances by the end of this fiscal year. We can assist them in that effort by bringing our billings and payments up to date before the end of September. Thanks for checking into this. Best Regards, Eva -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Friday, January 28, 2005 8:40 AM To: Baroni, Eva M Subject: Concerns Tom Crowley grant through PNL re IDAG Dear Eva, Gabi Hegerl emailed me the other day to check something for our meeting in April. This got me thinking as she said you'd told her someone hadn't claimed anything in the last year. I wondered if this was me. So, I have a few questions for you. Q1 When should I next put in a claim? Can it wait till our next meeting in April? Q2 How much money have I yet to claim? Q3 Is there a split between travel and work hours? My memory is that it is altogether. My reason for asking is that I've recently moved a lot of things round in my office and I can't find the files that would tell me the answers. They are here somewhere and will turn up. I hoped you might have the info to hand more easily. Best Regards Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1939. 2005-02-04 12:14:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Feb 4 12:14:26 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Ch3-cas] [Fwd: Zero order draft of Chapter 3, AR4, IPCC] to: "Thorne, Peter" Peter, We can discuss this in Chicago. I get in about 2pm on the 22cnd, so give me a call when you arrive. We'll both be a bit knackered, so maybe an earlyish meal (about 6pm - normal time for them yanks) and/or a couple of expensive beers in the bar beforehand. I have just got the CCSP report - in 4 emails last night. All on my stick. Seems as though I'll be going through Chapter 5 and maybe 3. Just told them 3 would be better than 5. Lots to read on flights to India (Feb 12-20) and Madrid (Feb 6-10). Nathan and I had a meeting with Kate yesterday. We talked about a date for one when you came. I vaguely recall a date in March, but I didn't write it down so check with Kate and Nathan. Just returned from 2 hours with U/Gs and need a lunch break. Kevin is the CLA for Section 3.4 and David and Brian Soden the LAs who put most of it together. See what Kevin says in response. You have summarised his views on the issue very succinctly in your take home message from the section ! He is very pro Fu. As far as I know he wasn't involved in CCSP and I've only yet looked at the Table of Contents of it. I'll send a summary of this to all in a few minutes. Cheers Phil At 10:57 04/02/2005, you wrote: Kevin, Phil et al., my substantive comments on the upper-air portion only. Before I give specific comments below I have some over-arching comments: This draft and the CCSP report seem at best tangential - is this desirable or sensible? There is little effective communication in the main text of the uncertainty that is inherent in these measures due to the poor quality of the underlying data and metadata and to the choices made - "structural uncertainty". It seems that a decision has been made that RSS and the Fu et al. method are "right" or at least "most right" and this is what we will put forward as gospel truth almost. Other datasets are given a cursory once over almost. This completely ignores legitimate concerns that "structural uncertainty" is large aloft - seemingly reasonable choices made as to how you homogenise and then analyse the data can have very large effects. This is not at all clearly communicated in the current draft. The essential distilled message that I think the analysis of UA temperatures has left us since the TAR, and what this chapter should say, is: "Independent efforts to create climate records from satellite and radiosonde records since the TAR have served to illuminate previously unrecognised uncertainties in temperature evolution aloft (Seidel et al., 2004, Thorne et al., 2005). Further, choices in post-processing (e.g. Fu et al., 2004) may help to clarify satellite retrievals, but legitimate concerns remain (Thorne and Tett, 2004, Spencer et al., 2005) and other equally plausible approaches should be actively considered. Our increased understanding of trend uncertainty aloft means that we can no longer dismiss warming aloft of similar or greater magnitude than at the surface over the satellite record. Nor can we discount a relative cooling aloft. Uncertainties are largest in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes where radiosonde coverage is poorest. Obviously, the climate has only evolved along a single pathway. Therefore a major challenge to the climate community is to refine our range of estimates." This is what CCSP effectively says. What, rightly or wrongly, I get out of the current draft on an initial read is: "We don't like UAH. We don't believe radiosondes over the satellite period, but do over the longer period (paradox). We believe Fu et al. is correct. There is no longer any problem whatsoever." I don't think this simple message is actually remotely supported by the science. Therefore at the very least efforts are required to balance the text so that this is not the message communicated. I don't think we should be scared of admitting that we just don't know, if indeed we just don't know (which I believe is a fair reflection of the state of the science). Specific comments: p.23 lines 13-14 and 53-57 and p.24 lines 1-6. I disagree strongly with these as written. I do not believe that Fu et al. weightings is some panacea nor that the "cancellation" works on all space and timescales (the statement needs to be *proved* it cannot be accepted as an article of faith - that is not the way science works). I'd be amazed if it did. The reservations raised in the peer reviewed literature need to be better articulated here for the document to be fair and balanced. I guess this whole area will evolve significantly over the next 12 months or so though. General concern: In the TAR we used 20N to 20S to define the tropics - here (Table 3.4.1.b) you use 30N to 30S. I'd suggest 20-20 is physically more logical and has backward compatablity and should be used. This is a recommendation of the Exeter workshop report queued for review in BAMS. Regardless, you need to alight on a single definition of these regions here and elsewhere in the report and stick to it. If you look at zonal mean profiles from any UA dataset then 20-20 shows marked trend changes N and S of it (greater warming) so using 30-30 gives a chance of a fools gold scenario arising. In Table 3.4.1.b TLT is the acronym used in Christy et al. 2003 for T2LT - this may very well cause confusion. Admittedly I was only scanning the tables but I thought that this claimed there was a RSS 2LT channel equivalent! Page 26 lines 28-37. This is at significant odds with the CCSP report conclusions as currently written. Much of this relates to the relative weighting being given to the Fu et al. approach by the different author teams. It will seem very odd to a policy maker to read two such disparate threads. I particularly dislike the use on line 30 of "when the stratospheric influence is properly taken into account (Fu et al., 2004a)". How can we say it is properly taken into account that way? There are a very large population of plausible approaches that could be taken and to date we have two - a "physical" 2LT and a statistical T850-300. That is grossly insufficient to make bold statements regarding one of them properly taking the effect into account. Again, this needs balance and caveats on the Fu et al. technique until we resolve unanswered questions. Likewise, T2LT has not been proven to be untenable in the peer reviewed press - so you cannot make this statement. My feeling is that we are missing a significant opportunity here to outline the considerable uncertainty in evolution aloft in favour of deciding one subset of approaches is right and presenting this as gospel truth. I am very uncomfortable with this. As I said it is at significant odds with CCSP. page 26. para starting on line 46. Seems almost an afterthought. For HadAT (at least, but as they are so highly correlated, also highly likely LKS) the long-term trend in the tropics is entirely an artifact of the regime shift - if you split time periods then pre- and post-1979 have negative trends and the whole period has a strong positive trend. So to state boldly that trends agree and therefore all is well is again our living in a fools paradise. It is true, but it just shows that trend metrics are very dangerous beasties and should be handled with care. The Seidel and lanzante paper should also be quoted here. page 68. Bullets on line 15, line 19, and line 31. Again, my concern here is that these are far too narrow and you are effectively claiming that one approach is right. Really refers back to my earlier points. This is painting a light fuzzy grey as black when I don't believe the science to date supports such an interpretation. Page 110, line 55. Containing 676 stations (not CDRs). Page 111, line 31 The Thorne et al. referenced is a paper under review at BAMS that you don't have in your current reference list. Reference is: Causes of differences in observed climate trends Peter W. Thorne, David E. Parker, John R. Christy, Carl A. Mears Common question 3.2. You'll be unsurprised to hear that I think this paints too rosy a picture of our understanding the vertical structure of temperature changes. Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest. Phil, hopefully we can find time to discuss these further if necessary either in Chicago or when I visit in March (has a date been decided yet?). I'll be away from three weeks from today and unable to access this email account. If we need to iterate further I can be reached (intermittently) on peterwthorne@btinternet.com but will be fairly busy and then on holiday in the middle week. Peter -- Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist Hadley Centre for climate prediction and research Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB Tel:+44 1392 886552 Fax:+44 1392 885681 [1]http://www.hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4417. 2005-02-04 13:21:56 ______________________________________________________ cc: peterwthorne@btinternet.com date: Fri Feb 4 13:21:56 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Ch3-cas] [Fwd: Zero order draft of Chapter 3, AR4, IPCC] to: "Thorne, Peter" , Kevin Trenberth , Chris Folland , Simon Tett , David Parker Peter, Neither Kevin (I think) nor I have yet seen the CCSP draft. I have just received it as I've agreed to be on the review panel. Eventually, Ch 3 will have to somewhat agree with CCSP, but you are looking at the ZOD. We have the FOD, SOD and maybe a TOD to go through yet. If the CCSP comes out before the FOD commenting period then we will likely get loads of comments coming in telling us the same thing, so the FOD is likely to markedly different from the ZOD. Thanks for your comments - they are almost the first. Kevin has forwarded a somewhat similar broadside from John Christy - with detailed comments to follow, when he has time to catch breath. So, take it from me the FOD will be a marked improvement on the ZOD - not just in this section, but in almost all sections. Some sections need a lot more work than this one. Remember that responding to comments is the purpose of the reviewing strategy ! I'll own up to writing CQ 3.2 ! I did it in 30 mins a few weeks ago. It is better than the text provided by one of CA's, but it needs a lot of more work - something I didn't have time for in early Jan. It may only be better in the sense that it does mention vertical temperature trends ! If you're there on Feb 22 (in the delightful O'Hare Hilton) then we can discuss this further. I should have read the CCSP by then ! Cheers Phil At 10:57 04/02/2005, Thorne, Peter wrote: Kevin, Phil et al., my substantive comments on the upper-air portion only. Before I give specific comments below I have some over-arching comments: This draft and the CCSP report seem at best tangential - is this desirable or sensible? There is little effective communication in the main text of the uncertainty that is inherent in these measures due to the poor quality of the underlying data and metadata and to the choices made - "structural uncertainty". It seems that a decision has been made that RSS and the Fu et al. method are "right" or at least "most right" and this is what we will put forward as gospel truth almost. Other datasets are given a cursory once over almost. This completely ignores legitimate concerns that "structural uncertainty" is large aloft - seemingly reasonable choices made as to how you homogenise and then analyse the data can have very large effects. This is not at all clearly communicated in the current draft. The essential distilled message that I think the analysis of UA temperatures has left us since the TAR, and what this chapter should say, is: "Independent efforts to create climate records from satellite and radiosonde records since the TAR have served to illuminate previously unrecognised uncertainties in temperature evolution aloft (Seidel et al., 2004, Thorne et al., 2005). Further, choices in post-processing (e.g. Fu et al., 2004) may help to clarify satellite retrievals, but legitimate concerns remain (Thorne and Tett, 2004, Spencer et al., 2005) and other equally plausible approaches should be actively considered. Our increased understanding of trend uncertainty aloft means that we can no longer dismiss warming aloft of similar or greater magnitude than at the surface over the satellite record. Nor can we discount a relative cooling aloft. Uncertainties are largest in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes where radiosonde coverage is poorest. Obviously, the climate has only evolved along a single pathway. Therefore a major challenge to the climate community is to refine our range of estimates." This is what CCSP effectively says. What, rightly or wrongly, I get out of the current draft on an initial read is: "We don't like UAH. We don't believe radiosondes over the satellite period, but do over the longer period (paradox). We believe Fu et al. is correct. There is no longer any problem whatsoever." I don't think this simple message is actually remotely supported by the science. Therefore at the very least efforts are required to balance the text so that this is not the message communicated. I don't think we should be scared of admitting that we just don't know, if indeed we just don't know (which I believe is a fair reflection of the state of the science). Specific comments: p.23 lines 13-14 and 53-57 and p.24 lines 1-6. I disagree strongly with these as written. I do not believe that Fu et al. weightings is some panacea nor that the "cancellation" works on all space and timescales (the statement needs to be *proved* it cannot be accepted as an article of faith - that is not the way science works). I'd be amazed if it did. The reservations raised in the peer reviewed literature need to be better articulated here for the document to be fair and balanced. I guess this whole area will evolve significantly over the next 12 months or so though. General concern: In the TAR we used 20N to 20S to define the tropics - here (Table 3.4.1.b) you use 30N to 30S. I'd suggest 20-20 is physically more logical and has backward compatablity and should be used. This is a recommendation of the Exeter workshop report queued for review in BAMS. Regardless, you need to alight on a single definition of these regions here and elsewhere in the report and stick to it. If you look at zonal mean profiles from any UA dataset then 20-20 shows marked trend changes N and S of it (greater warming) so using 30-30 gives a chance of a fools gold scenario arising. In Table 3.4.1.b TLT is the acronym used in Christy et al. 2003 for T2LT - this may very well cause confusion. Admittedly I was only scanning the tables but I thought that this claimed there was a RSS 2LT channel equivalent! Page 26 lines 28-37. This is at significant odds with the CCSP report conclusions as currently written. Much of this relates to the relative weighting being given to the Fu et al. approach by the different author teams. It will seem very odd to a policy maker to read two such disparate threads. I particularly dislike the use on line 30 of "when the stratospheric influence is properly taken into account (Fu et al., 2004a)". How can we say it is properly taken into account that way? There are a very large population of plausible approaches that could be taken and to date we have two - a "physical" 2LT and a statistical T850-300. That is grossly insufficient to make bold statements regarding one of them properly taking the effect into account. Again, this needs balance and caveats on the Fu et al. technique until we resolve unanswered questions. Likewise, T2LT has not been proven to be untenable in the peer reviewed press - so you cannot make this statement. My feeling is that we are missing a significant opportunity here to outline the considerable uncertainty in evolution aloft in favour of deciding one subset of approaches is right and presenting this as gospel truth. I am very uncomfortable with this. As I said it is at significant odds with CCSP. page 26. para starting on line 46. Seems almost an afterthought. For HadAT (at least, but as they are so highly correlated, also highly likely LKS) the long-term trend in the tropics is entirely an artifact of the regime shift - if you split time periods then pre- and post-1979 have negative trends and the whole period has a strong positive trend. So to state boldly that trends agree and therefore all is well is again our living in a fools paradise. It is true, but it just shows that trend metrics are very dangerous beasties and should be handled with care. The Seidel and lanzante paper should also be quoted here. page 68. Bullets on line 15, line 19, and line 31. Again, my concern here is that these are far too narrow and you are effectively claiming that one approach is right. Really refers back to my earlier points. This is painting a light fuzzy grey as black when I don't believe the science to date supports such an interpretation. Page 110, line 55. Containing 676 stations (not CDRs). Page 111, line 31 The Thorne et al. referenced is a paper under review at BAMS that you don't have in your current reference list. Reference is: Causes of differences in observed climate trends Peter W. Thorne, David E. Parker, John R. Christy, Carl A. Mears Common question 3.2. You'll be unsurprised to hear that I think this paints too rosy a picture of our understanding the vertical structure of temperature changes. Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest. Phil, hopefully we can find time to discuss these further if necessary either in Chicago or when I visit in March (has a date been decided yet?). I'll be away from three weeks from today and unable to access this email account. If we need to iterate further I can be reached (intermittently) on peterwthorne@btinternet.com but will be fairly busy and then on holiday in the middle week. Peter -- Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist Hadley Centre for climate prediction and research Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB Tel:+44 1392 886552 Fax:+44 1392 885681 [1]http://www.hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2012. 2005-02-04 13:34:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Feb 4 13:34:13 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Nature quote for checking to: "Schiermeier, Quirin" Dear Quinn, Fine. Presumably this will be in the same issue as the Moberg et al paper next week. Although I'm away Feb 6-9, I'll be in on Feb 10 (pm), so if you send your story next week I'd appreciate it. Other media may call on Feb 10-11. Cheers Phil At 12:22 04/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, Would that be ok: "The past climate is somewhat irrelevant when it comes to predict the future climate," says Phil Jones, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia in the UK. "What really matters is what has happened in the 20^th century - and we can expect from that a much warmer climate in the future than in the warmest period of the last millennium." Thanks, Quirin -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 01 February 2005 16:40 To: Schiermeier, Quirin Subject: Re: Request from Nature Dear Quirin, Can you call me early tomorrow as I have a few things to finish today? Can you call between 08.30-09.30 tomorrow UK time, so one hour later your time? Number is +44 1603 592090 . I would prefer not to talk much about the GRL paper, as McIntyre and McKittirick are wrong and the paper should never have been accepted by GRL. There is a lot on this on this web site [2]http://www.realclimate.org/ . I know this site is partly run by Mike Mann. The GRL paper was not reviewed by paleo people but by hydrologists. The GRL paper is wrong because it just can't have been that warm in the 15th century. The paper is a complete outlier. Happy to talk about the Moberg et al. paper. I've seen an earlier draft, but I know from Anders that the results haven't changed since I heard him present it at a meeting in 2004. Cheers Phil At 14:59 01/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr Jones, I am working on a news article for Nature about the issue of temperature variability in the last 1,000 years, pegged to the lMcIntyre/McKitrick paper in GRL, and a paper by Anders Moberg in the 10 February issue in Nature. It would be interested in your viewpoint. Can I call you today or later this week? Thank you very much for your help with this. Sincerely, Quirin Schiemreier Quirin Schiermeier German Correspondent of Nature Josephspitalstrasse 15 D-80331 Munich Germany tel + 49 89 5490 5714 fax + 49 89 5490 5720 q.schiermeier@nature.com ******************************************************************************** DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is confidential and should not be used by anyone who is not the original intended recipient. If you have received this e-mail in error please inform the sender and delete it from your mailbox or any other storage mechanism. Neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept liability for any statements made which are clearly the sender's own and not expressly made on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or one of its agents. 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Macmillan Publishers Limited Registered in England and Wales with registered number 785998 Registered Office Brunel Road, Houndmills, Basingstoke RG21 6XS ******************************************************************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ******************************************************************************** DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is confidential and should not be used by anyone who is not the original intended recipient. If you have received this e-mail in error please inform the sender and delete it from your mailbox or any other storage mechanism. Neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept liability for any statements made which are clearly the sender's own and not expressly made on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or one of its agents. Please note that neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept any responsibility for viruses that may be contained in this e-mail or its attachments and it is your responsibility to scan the e-mail and attachments (if any). No contracts may be concluded on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or its agents by means of e-mail communication. Macmillan Publishers Limited Registered in England and Wales with registered number 785998 Registered Office Brunel Road, Houndmills, Basingstoke RG21 6XS ******************************************************************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2384. 2005-02-04 14:44:57 ______________________________________________________ cc: Kevin Trenberth , Peter Ambenje , Roxana Bojariu , David Easterling , David Parker , Fatemeh Rahimzadeh , Jim Renwick , Matilde Rusticucci , Brian Soden , Panmao Zhai , Albert Klein Tank date: Fri Feb 4 14:44:57 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Zero order draft of Chapter 3, AR4, IPCC to: Kevin Trenberth , ch3-cas@cgd.ucar.edu Dear All, One additional aspect of the ZODs, is that some of you are our link points to other chapters. For example, if I recall correctly, Dave Easterling agreed to be our link to the cryospshere chapter (#4) particularly for snowfall. So where you have that responsibility you'll need to download and look through that chapter as well, to see if we have overlapping material and we're self consistent. Additionally Albert and Matilde took responsibility for our two CQs. I know I rewrote CQ 3.2 at the very last minute and heavily edited CQ 3.1, but it would probably help if you two could look at the other CQ answers. As this involves downloading all the chapters, I would suggest you limit yourselves to the most relevant chapters (at least to Ch 3). So just look at Ch 1, 4, 5, 6 and 9. I'm going to be away for much of the next three weeks, so don't expect any quick responses to emails. Cheers Phil At 15:50 03/02/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Dear CA The zero order draft of Chapter 3 of the WG1 IPCC AR4 report is now available. Your contribution has helped us put together this draft, and we thank you very much. However, it is NOT yet the first draft; we recognize that it is incomplete in some places (for instance where some CAs did not come through, or through oversight), and we have not even reviewed it fully ourselves, given the tight timetable. So we are seeking constructive comments and your assistance on developing the first draft. What is most helpful is for you to suggest new text and references, and explicit changes. Not "such and such" is bad or needs fixing. We can not promise to use the new text because there are 60 CAs who may well suggest different things. We also have to limit page numbers, so we especially welcome suggestions for shortening. If you care to rewrite a section more succinctly, then we will gladly consider it. The figures are all preliminary and will be thoroughly examined in Beijing in May, so suggestions of improved or more recent figures are welcomed. We also welcome copies of any papers submitted or referred to. I am sending this out in two parts. This part has the text attached as a pdf. It is order 1 MB. The second part includes the figures, many in color, and it is 3.7 MB. We need you comments by 1 April 2005 at the latest. If you prefer to focus only on the section in which your contribution appeared, then that is fine, but you are welcome to comment on other parts as well. If you can not comment or prefer not to for some reason or another, a message to that effect would also be welcomed so we can track responses. Please send your comments, preferably in word, with your name on each page, and clear identification of section, page and line number or figure number. You may like to make a comment, followed by explicit suggestion for addition or change. Please do justify and argue why the change is needed. Please send comments to Kevin Trenberth and Phil Jones, who will assemble them. Many thanks for your help Kevin Trenberth [1]trenbert@ucar.edu Phil Jones [2]p.jones@uea.ac.uk -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [3]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [4]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1618. 2005-02-04 15:40:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 15:40:45 -0700 from: Jerry Meehl subject: IPCC model analysis workshop to: ipcc_subprojects@jetta.llnl.gov, mlatif@ifm.uni-kiel.de, Ron Stouffer , covey1@llnl.gov, meehl@ucar.edu, john.f.mitchell@metoffice.com, gates5@llnl.gov, avillwock@ifm.uni-kiel.de, B.McAvaney@bom.gov.au, Satyan_V@gateway.wmo.ch, bader2@llnl.gov, cmsaw@joss.ucar.edu, wg1-ar4-ch10@joss.ucar.edu, Jim Hurrell , Dave Gutzler , Lisa Goddard , David Legler , "Fein, Jay S." , David Legler , Jay McCreary , Sally Conlon , Stephanie Shearer Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by smtp-4.llnl.gov id j14MfwCX012043 February 4, 2005 Dear analysts and attendees, Note—we are sending this message to several email alias lists, so if you receive it more than once we apologize-- Attached is a draft agenda for the Workshop on Analyses of Climate Model Simulations for the IPCC AR4 to be held in Hawaii workshop 1-4 March, 2005. This agenda was put together by the organizing committee (Gerald Meehl, chair; Lisa Goddard, Dave Gutzler and Jim Hurrell) and approved at the US CLIVAR SSC meeting last week in Miami. Since we had such an overwhelming response for the workshop (around 125 presentations), we have decided to have a "short-oral-presentation/poster-presentation" workshop. Therefore, all the presentations will have a short oral presentation (about 3 minutes each) in plenary, followed by the poster discussion. There will be 7 half day sessions with this format (total 3.5 days) with about 15-20 presentations in each session. Also attached is a list of presentations with a session number for each. Sessions 1 and 2 will be on March 1; sessions 3 and 4 on March 2; sessions 5 and 6 on March 3; and session 7 on March 4. Please take note of the day and time of the session to which you have been assigned. These sessions were divided roughly by topic, but not strictly so. Therefore, you may feel you are in the “wrong” session, but since these are mostly discussion sessions, it is not crucial as to which session your presentation will appear. If we have missed a presentation, or if you see other errors, please let me know as soon as possible and we can revise the agenda. There will be three invited talks of general interest: Susan Solomon will speak about the IPCC process and schedule; Karl Taylor about the PCMDI IPCC model data archive; and Thomas Stocker regarding where results from the workshop will fit in to the IPCC AR4. There will be lead authors or coordinating lead authors present from five of the chapters of the AR4. These lead authors will play a key role in evaluating and compiling the results for their respective chapters. A discussion session will occur after session 7 on the morning of March 4 where workshop participants will have a chance to hear from and discuss with the lead authors regarding a synthesis of the results from the workshop. Instructions to presenters: 1. Each presenter will be given three minutes in plenary to present a brief summary of important conclusions from their analyses. We suggest you prepare *one* overhead transparency which summarizes either the main points from your study, or one key figure. This is intended to briefly introduce your poster presentation, and not be a comprehensive summary. We intend to adhere strictly to the 3 minute time limit for each presenter, with a warning at 2.5 minutes and a “must end” at the 3 minute mark. 2. Presenters must put up their posters immediately prior to their session, and take them down immediately afterwards to clear the way for the next session. Dimensions of the mounting boards are 46” (115 cm) wide, by 63” (158 cm) tall. If necessary, the poster can hang down below the bottom of the mounting board an additional 7” (18 cm). 3. It is important for the IPCC lead authors to have an electronic record of results presented to assist them in beginning to assess the results for the AR4. Therefore, we request presenters also prepare an electronic version that can be posted on the IPCC web site. You can either email your powerpoint presentation to Scott Longmore prior to the workshop (longmore@ucar.edu) or bring your talk on CD or memory stick to transfer to his laptop during the workshop. 4. A workshop report will be posted on the IPCC web site after the workshop. It will contain the abstracts from the presentations and a brief summary of the workshop. Recall that this workshop is very important for you to inform the IPCC AR4 lead authors regarding your results that you want assessed for the AR4. However, this is not the final step. To be included for assessment, papers describing your results must be submitted to peer-reviewed journals by May, 2005, and accepted for publication by December, 2005. We are aware of the difficulties some of you have had in downloading enough data from the archive at PCMDI to begin your analyses. Therefore, even preliminary results or status updates are important to present at the workshop. Also be aware that there is more model data appearing on the PCMDI web site daily. It is crucial that, after the workshop and before you submit your final papers to journals, you include as much data from as many models as possible. Modeling groups have worked very hard and they have committed considerable resources to run their models for these analyses, so it’s vital that you include them in your papers. We will be discussing these issues further at the workshop. Thanks to all of you for agreeing to participate in this important workshop, and we look forward to a stimulating and productive four days in Hawaii! Best regards, Jerry Meehl (for the WGCM Climate Simulation Panel and the International Workshop on IPCC Model Analysis Organizing Committee) Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\Agenda.Hawaii.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\CMSAW.20050202.condensed-2testsort.xls" 3045. 2005-02-04 15:54:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 15:54:15 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Fwd: Re: FW: "hockey stock" methodology misleading to: Phil Jones , rbradley@geo.umass.edu, tom crowley , tom crowley , mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, Keith Briffa Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 15:52:53 -0500 To: Andy Revkin From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: Re: FW: "hockey stock" methodology misleading Hi Andy, The McIntyre and McKitrick paper is pure scientific fraud. I think you'll find this reinforced by just about any legitimate scientist in our field you discuss this with. Please see the RealClimate response: [1]http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=111 and also: [2]http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=114 The Moberg et al paper is at least real science. But there are some real problems with it (you'll want to followup w/ people like Phil Jones for a 2nd opinion). While the paper actually reinforces the main conclusion of previous studies (it also finds the late 20th century to be the warmest period of the past two millennia), it challenges various reconstructions using tree-ring information (which includes us, but several others such as Jones et al, Crowley, etc). I'm pretty sure, by the way, that a very similar version of the paper was rejected previously by Science. A number of us are therefore very surprised that Nature is publishing it, given a number of serious problems: Their method for combining frequencies is problematic and untested: A. they only use a handful of records, so there is a potentially large sampling bias. B. worse, they use different records for high-frequencies and low-frequencies, so the bias isn't even the same--the reconstruction is apples and oranges. C. The wavelet method is problematic. We have found in our own work that you cannot simply combine the content in different at like frequencies, because different proxies have different signal vs. noise characteristics at different frequencies--for some records, there century-scale variability is likely to be pure noise. They end up therfore weighting noise as much as signal. For some of the records used, there are real age model problems. The timescale isn't known to better than +/- a couple hundred years in several cases. So when they average these records together, the century-scale variability is likely to be nonsense. D. They didn't do statistical verification. This is absolutely essential for such reconstructions (see e.g. the recent Cook et al and Luterbacher et al papers in Science). They should have validated their reconstruction against long-instrumental records, as we and many others have. Without having done so, there is no reason to believe the reconstruction has any reliability. This is a major problem w/ the paper. It is complicated by the fact that they don't produce a pattern, but just a hemispheric mean--that makes it difficult to do a long-term verification. But they don't attempt any sort of verification at all! There are some decades known to be warm from the available instrumental records (1730s, some in the 16th century) which the Moberg reconstruction completely misses--the reconstruction gives the impression that all years are cold between 1500 and 1750. The reconstruction would almost certainly fail cross-validation against long instrumental records. If so, it is an unreliable estimate of past changes. We're surprised the Nature Reviewers didn't catch this. E. They also didn't validate their method against a model (where I believe it would likely fail). We have done so w/ our own "hybrid frequency-domain" method that combines information separately at low and high-frequencies, but taking into account the problem mentioned above. This is described in: Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Osborn, T.J., Bradley, R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes, M.K., Jones, P.D., [3]Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Methodology, Predictor Network, Target Season and Target Domain, Journal of Climate, in press (2005). In work that is provisionally accepted in "Journal of Climate" (draft attached), we show that our method gives the correct history using noisy "pseudoproxy" records derived from a climate model simulation with large past changes in radiative forcing. Moberg et al have not tested their method in such a manner. F. They argue selectively for favorable comparison w/ other work: (1) Esper et al: when authors rescaled the reconstruction using the full instrumental record (Cook et al, 2004), they found it to be far more similar to Mann et al, Crowley and Lowery, Jones et al, and the roughly dozen or so other empirical and model estimates consistent w/ it. Several studies, moreover [see e.g.: Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Faluvegi, G., [4]Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D05104, doi: 10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004.] show that extratropical, land-only summer temperatures, which Esper et al emphasises, are likely to biased towards greater variability--so its an apples and oranges comparison anyway. (2) von Storch et al: There are some well known problems here: (a) their forcing is way too large (Foukal at al in Science a couple months back indicates maybe 5 times too large), DKMI uses same model, more conventional forcings, and get half the amplitude and another paper submitted recently by the Belgium modeling group suggests that some severe spin-up/initialization problems give the large century-scale swings in the model--these are not reproducible. (3) Boreholes: They argue that Boreholes are "physical measurements" but many papers in the published literature have detailed the various biases in using continental ground surface temperature to estimate past surface air temperature changes--changing snow cover gives rise to a potentially huge bias (see e.g. : Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., [5]Ground vs. Surface Air Temperature Trends: Implications for Borehole Surface Temperature Reconstructions,Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (12), 1607, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017170, 2003). Methods that try to correct for this give smaller amplitude changes from borehole temperatures: Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Keimig, F.T., [6]Optimal Surface Temperature Reconstructions using Terrestrial Borehole Data, Journal of Geophysical Research, 108 (D7), 4203, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002532, 2003] [[7]Correction(Rutherford and Mann, 2004)] Most reconstructions and model estimates still *sandwich" the Mann et al reconstruction. See e.g. figure 5 in: Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., [8]Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi: 10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004. Ironically, MM say our 15th century is too cold, while Moberg et al say its too warm. Hmmm.... To recap, I hope you don't mention MM at all. It really doesn't deserve any additional publicity. Moberg et al is more deserving of discussion, but, as outlined above, there are some real problems w/ it. I have reason to believe that Nature's own commentary by Schiermeier will actually be somewhat critical of it. I'm travelling and largely unavailable until monday. If you need to talk, you can possibly reach me at 434-227-6969 over the weekend. I hope this is of some help. Literally got to run now... mike At 02:14 PM 2/4/2005, Andy Revkin wrote: Hi all, There is a fascinating paper coming in Nature next week (Moberg of Stockholm Univ., et al) that uses mix of sediment and tree ring data to get a new view of last 2,000 years. Very warped hockeystick shaft (centuries-scale variability very large) but still pronounced 'unusual' 1990's blade. i'd like your reaction/thoughts for story i'll write for next thursday's Times. also, is there anything about the GRL paper forthcoming from Mc & Mc that warrants a response? I can send you the Nature paper as pdf if you agree not to redistribute it (you know the embargo rules). that ok? thanks for getting in touch! andy ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [9]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [10]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4332. 2005-02-04 16:32:17 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Feb 4 16:32:17 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Journalist Daniel Glick's inquiry to: Dan, I will unfortunately be on travel for much of the rest of the month. I have Feb 6-10 in Madrid, 12-20 in Pune, India and 22-25 in Chicago. So I don't have the time. Whether I have the heart and stomach is another matter. I think I would have. I am a convening lead author on the next IPCC report, so it would be good to keep in touch. I would appreciate a copy of your finished article for Audobon. Mike Mann's work is of particular interest to me. I don't think it is far from what really happened. We'll never know for sure - our grandchildren will have a lot more proxy records. Mike's probably told you about the web site he and others have set up to respond to a lot of the hype [1]http://www.realclimate.org/ . Mike keeps trying to get me write some things for this, but there is no enough time in the day. A lot of interest has been generated by it, but I doubt it will convince the Crichton's of this world. Why he has embarked on this crusade is anybody's guess. All I can say is that he is getting bad advice. You might be aware that some new twists on the records for the last 1000 years will appear soon. There is a paper in Nature (Feb8/9 issue) with a new 2000 year series. It has greater amplitude than Mike Mann's, but still has the recent period as the warmest. Another paper will appear in GRL by two skeptics (McIntyre and McKittrick). This claims to have found a mistake in Mike's method. Their new curve has the warmest century by far in the 15th century. None of the 6-7 curves of the last millennium have the 15th century as warm - it is probably the 4th coldest. So they have made a much bigger mistake than Mike - even if he made one at all ! Both paper would be worth your reading - and they both should make a splash. The one thing the skeptics can achieve is a lot of publicity. Unfortunately sowing doubts sometimes bears fruit. I'll be around in March, so if you've not finished and want some input then, then email me again. Apologies again ! Cheers Phil At 14:42 04/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr. Jones, We corresponded last year while I was researching a cover story for National Geographic magazine on climate change (it appeared in the September 2004 issue). I have another somewhat less august task at hand, and was hoping you might be able to help. I don't know if you have caught wind of a bestselling novel written by Michael Crichton (Jurassic Park, Andromeda Strain), which has generated some controversy here because of its misrepresentation of climate change science, among other things. I have been asked by Audubon magazine to write about l'affaire Crichton, not simply because his book will likely sell orders of magnitudes more copies than the top ten non-fiction books on climate change, but also because he is making it something of a crusade to make public talks denouncing climate change research -- and researchers. One target in public talks (and in the book) has been Michael Mann's work, which I imagine might be of particular interest to you. I also imagine that debating a fiction writer about climate change science may seem to be a particularly futile endeavor. But if you have the heart and stomach for it, I would welcome your comments. If you are unaware of the particulars, I can send you specific references and questions for you. If you are au courant, then please feel free to comment. With your permission, I would appreciate the opportunity to quote from your email in my article. If there are others whom you think I should also contact, I am all ears. Warm regards, Daniel Glick Daniel Glick 303 543-9086 3590 Nyland Way Lafayette, Colorado 80026 daniel@danielglick.net [2]www.danielglick.net -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[3]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 10:32 AM To: Dan Glick Subject: Re: National Geographic inquiry Dear Dan, I am off home in the next few minutes, but if you send something I'll try and have a look over the next few days. Let me know how soon you want comments back. Cheers Phil At 10:03 14/11/2003 -0700, you wrote: Dr. Jones, I was wondering if you might be willing and able to take a look at the section of my draft article on climate change that includes a mention of your work. I am anxious to be as accurate as I can possibly be. Thanks, Dan Glick Daniel Glick 3590 Nyland Way Lafayette, CO 80026 [4]daniel@danielglick.net [5]http://www.danielglick.net ----- Original Message ----- From: [6]Phil Jones To: [7]Dan Glick Sent: Friday, September 05, 2003 4:21 AM Subject: Re: National Geographic inquiry Dear Dan, I will be able to talk to you. I will be away Sept 23-24 and most of October at meetings, so if you can get hold of me before the end of September. My direct line is in the email tail. You will obviously get an array of answers to your questions from different people. Another person to talk to would be Ray Bradley (at UMASS, Amherst) and Tom Wigley (at NCAR). It would seem easier to answer your questions on the phone and then perhaps elaborate over email on specific. The paleo data, for example, are just extensions of instrumental records. The latter are used for the detail of patterns of changes and for linking to possible causal factors. Paleo data allow us to place the recent past in a longer context. I'm writing a longer piece with Mike Mann, which would be useful for you to read, but it's not in a form yet we can send out. We will be going into some of the same issues, but our readerships will be different. Paper will be for Reviews of Geophysics (RoG). A couple of things for you to look at - or think about. 1. I had a paper in RoG in 1999. Jones, P.D., New, M., Parker, D.E., Martin, S. and Rigor, I.G., 1999: Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37, 173-199. 2. Ray Bradley's book in 1999 on Paleoclimatology. Ray's email is rbradley@geo.umass.edu 3. I'll forward you an email about some paleo work that has come out over the last few months that has generated a lot of controversy. I just want to make you aware of the issues and some people's agendas and sensitivities. Cheers Phil At 13:50 04/09/2003 -0600, you wrote: Dear Professor Jones, I am an American journalist working on a article for National Geographic Magazine about observed changes in the earth and its physical processes. An integral part of my story will be to explore two simple (and sometimes evasive) questions: What do we know about how the planet is changing; and How do we know what we know? I would like very much if you might be willing to help me address these two questions with reference to global temperatures. With high hopes that you might help me understand and disseminate this information to a broad, lay audience, I make the following requests: For starters, I would appreciate it if you would assign me some homework. (I have in hand your recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters, as well as your Science article of April 27, 2001.) One thing I am interested in is tracing a brief evolution of climate research itself: Who, for example, is credited with first seeing data sets that indicated unusual warming patterns? What were some of the difficult methodological issues that had to be confronted when assessing the data? How did people go about reconciling different data sets, then calibrating them to become meaningful on a global scale? How did the science of proxy measurements begin to gain scientific credibility? What were some of the famous, or infamous, bumps in the scientific road? I realize this is a vast topic, and frankly it is only one part of my upcoming article about physical change. But I see it as the platform that helps make sense of other observed changes, like glacier melt and sea level rise. Obviously the contention that 20th century temperatures are anomalously high is one of the foundations of other global climate changes. Forgive this long-winded email. Would you would be willing to point me in the direction of some good reading on the subject, and then be gracious enough to consent to an interview? We could talk by telephone at your convenience (I am on travel for most of the next two weeks, but will be available afterwards), or conduct a series of email "conversations." If you are unable to help me, or even if you are, would you be kind enough to suggest other scientists who might be able to speak to the questions I pose here? Thank you for your time. Regards, Dan Daniel Glick 3590 Nyland Way Lafayette, CO 80026 [8]daniel@danielglick.net [9]http://www.danielglick.net Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1837. 2005-02-04 16:51:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Feb 4 16:51:39 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: A few comments to: "Richard Gyllencreutz" , dhebbeln@uni-bremen.de Dear Dierk and Richard, I still have not found any quality time to look at the draft. I also now have the Iberian paper which arrived a couple of days ago. Both hard copies are in my bag for the flight to Madrid on Sunday and also on my laptop. So, I hope to get to them both - your one first though ! A few thoughts though on the current email. I would echo the points about using calendar dates. You have done well to put AD before the date. The Iberians have it after everywhere ! If you can I would omit reference to the MWP and LIA. The jury is still out (and will likely never come to a verdict) on whether the periods existed or how long they were if they did. If you want to say something the 10th and 11th centuries were likely the warmest of the last 3000 years (up to and including the 19th century). The coldest two centuries were the 17th and 19th for the last 2000 years. The 6th may also have been as cold, but there is much less evidence. I will at least get to the introduction and discussion/conclusions. Cheers Phil At 15:47 04/02/2005, Richard Gyllencreutz wrote: Dear Dierk (and Phil), I hope you received my revised version of the manuscript. I forgot to mention my revision of the last sentences of the abstract, which I hope is a more efficient wording. I have some further comments: On page 10 (I think it would be good to insert page numbers before submitting), I think its better to use the word "documented" instead of "reported", and to use appriximate ages instead of the terms LIA and MWP. See the new suggested text versions 1 and 2 below. 1) Higher Atlantic sea surface temperatures has been documented in several cores from the Norwegian margin from ca AD 1200 to AD 1400-1450 (Koç and Jansen, 2002; Risebrobakken et al., 2003; Andersson et al., 2003) and from fjords in western Norway from ca AD 1300-1350 to AD 1550-1600 (Mikalsen, 2001; Klitgaard Kristensen et al., 2004). 2) This is supported by data from Björck and Clemmensen (2004), where aeolian sand influx in raised bogs in southwestern Sweden indicate increased winter storminess from ca AD 1450 to AD 1900, preceded by about 700 years of low values. Another, more problematic point (Here I especially address Phil): After reading Hughes and Diaz (1994, Climatic Change 26 "Was there a MWP, and if so, where and when?"), I am not really convinced about the sentence "While the MWP is often seen as the warmest period since the Holocene climatic optimum (Reference?), the LIA is referred to as the coldest period since the Younger Dryas (Folland et al., 1990)." The IPCC volume (Houghton et al., 1990) which includes the Folland reference above, was criticised due to inadequate data regarding the MWP by Hughes and Diaz (1994, p.136). However, according to Hughes and Diaz (1994), it seems safe to assume that the medieval warm period was warmer than the following 600 years. Crowley and Lowery (2000, Ambio 29) writes: "To conclude, a new compilation of evidence for Medieval warmth indicates 3 relatively short-lived warming intervals (10101040, 10701105, and 11551190) that are comparable to the mid-20th century warm period. Scaling of the hemispheric composite to the Northern Hemisphere temperature records suggests that Little Ice Age temperatures were about 0.450.50°C colder than the mid-20th century warm period and that mean temperatures between 10001200 were only about 0.20°C warmer than the Little Ice Age." Since it seems hard to find any reference supporting the statement above, I think we should express our opinion a bit more cautious, but I don't know how. What do you think? What does Phil Jones say about this? Maybe we should just wrap it and leave it for the referees? cheers Richard At 10:49 2005-02-03, you wrote: Dear all, thanks to Dorthe for realising that the final version of our HOLSMEER paper sent around yesterday was not the real final but an older version. Sorry, obviously there are too many folders and files on my computer. Please, find NOW attached the final version for a last check. Cheers, Dierk ********************************************************** Dr. Dierk Hebbeln Tel. +49-421-2189079 FB Geowissenschaften Fax +49-421-2189080 Universität Bremen dhebbeln@uni-bremen.de Postfach 330440 D-28334 Bremen Germany The following section of this message contains a file attachment prepared for transmission using the Internet MIME message format. If you are using Pegasus Mail, or any other MIME-compliant system, you should be able to save it or view it from within your mailer. If you cannot, please ask your system administrator for assistance. ---- File information ----------- [1]File: Northern Coastal Sites HOLSMEER paper.doc Date: 2 Feb 2005, 16:38 Size: 2354688 bytes. Type: Unknown ___________________________________ Richard Gyllencreutz Department of Geology and Geochemistry Stockholm University SE-10691 Stockholm Sweden Ph:+46-8-674 77 25 Fax: +46-8-674 78 97 richard.gyllencreutz@geo.su.se ___________________________________ Med en geolog, man menar, en, vars levebröd är stenar Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1516. 2005-02-04 17:28:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: Kevin Trenberth date: Fri Feb 4 17:28:06 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: [Ch3-cas] [Fwd: Zero order draft of Chapter 3, AR4, IPCC] to: "Folland, Chris" Chris, Thanks. If you can persuade him to send comments a little more constructively following Kevin's guidelines then please do. I think being on the CCSP has been a little of an eye opener for Peter. Some of the email exchanges have been vitriolic - I had a selection sent to me the other day. I'll also talk to Peter in Chicago in 2 weeks time. Cheers Phil At 17:06 04/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil I am sorry that Peter was so aggressive rather than just sharp. Not really like that as you know. I think he got overenthusiastic because of the nature of some of the CCSP exchanges on vertical temperature trends between other scientists which have not helped the cause of gentlemanly conduct or clear thinking for that matter. Not a good example! The job of an IPCC reviewer at the ZOD stage is to make positive suggestions to help the Strawman along and not to be too critical. In the IPCC TAR at the ZOD stage we were fortunate that this was realised, though we did try and create this atmosphere in covering emails. I will have a look at the chapter soon. Cheers Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)Kevin, Phil et al., > >my substantive comments on the upper-air portion only. Before I give >specific comments below I have some over-arching comments: > >This draft and the CCSP report seem at best tangential - is this >desirable or sensible? > >There is little effective communication in the main text of the >uncertainty that is inherent in these measures due to the poor quality >of the underlying data and metadata and to the choices made - >"structural uncertainty". It seems that a decision has been made that >RSS and the Fu et al. method are "right" or at least "most right" and >this is what we will put forward as gospel truth almost. Other datasets >are given a cursory once over almost. This completely ignores >legitimate concerns that "structural uncertainty" is large aloft - >seemingly reasonable choices made as to how you homogenise and then >analyse the data can have very large effects. This is not at all >clearly communicated in the current draft. > >The essential distilled message that I think the analysis of UA >temperatures has left us since the TAR, and what this chapter should >say, is: > >"Independent efforts to create climate records from satellite and >radiosonde records since the TAR have served to illuminate previously >unrecognised uncertainties in temperature evolution aloft (Seidel et >al., 2004, Thorne et al., 2005). Further, choices in post-processing >(e.g. Fu et al., 2004) may help to clarify satellite retrievals, but >legitimate concerns remain (Thorne and Tett, 2004, Spencer et al., >2005) and other equally plausible approaches should be actively >considered. Our increased understanding of trend uncertainty aloft >means that we can no longer dismiss warming aloft of similar or greater >magnitude than at the surface over the satellite record. Nor can we >discount a relative cooling aloft. Uncertainties are largest in the >tropics and Southern Hemisphere high latitudes where radiosonde >coverage is poorest. Obviously, the climate has only evolved along a >single pathway. Therefore a major challenge to the climate community is >to refine our range of estimates." > >This is what CCSP effectively says. > >What, rightly or wrongly, I get out of the current draft on an initial >read is: > >"We don't like UAH. We don't believe radiosondes over the satellite >period, but do over the longer period (paradox). We believe Fu et al. >is correct. There is no longer any problem whatsoever." > >I don't think this simple message is actually remotely supported by the >science. Therefore at the very least efforts are required to balance >the text so that this is not the message communicated. I don't think we >should be scared of admitting that we just don't know, if indeed we >just don't know (which I believe is a fair reflection of the state of >the science). > >Specific comments: > >p.23 lines 13-14 and 53-57 and p.24 lines 1-6. I disagree strongly with >these as written. I do not believe that Fu et al. weightings is some >panacea nor that the "cancellation" works on all space and timescales >(the statement needs to be *proved* it cannot be accepted as an article >of faith - that is not the way science works). I'd be amazed if it did. >The reservations raised in the peer reviewed literature need to be >better articulated here for the document to be fair and balanced. I >guess this whole area will evolve significantly over the next 12 months >or so though. > >General concern: In the TAR we used 20N to 20S to define the tropics - >here (Table 3.4.1.b) you use 30N to 30S. I'd suggest 20-20 is >physically more logical and has backward compatablity and should be >used. This is a recommendation of the Exeter workshop report queued for >review in BAMS. Regardless, you need to alight on a single definition >of these regions here and elsewhere in the report and stick to it. If >you look at zonal mean profiles from any UA dataset then 20-20 shows >marked trend changes N and S of it (greater warming) so using 30-30 >gives a chance of a fools gold scenario arising. > >In Table 3.4.1.b TLT is the acronym used in Christy et al. 2003 for >T2LT >- this may very well cause confusion. Admittedly I was only scanning the >tables but I thought that this claimed there was a RSS 2LT channel >equivalent! > >Page 26 lines 28-37. This is at significant odds with the CCSP report >conclusions as currently written. Much of this relates to the relative >weighting being given to the Fu et al. approach by the different author >teams. It will seem very odd to a policy maker to read two such >disparate threads. I particularly dislike the use on line 30 of "when >the stratospheric influence is properly taken into account (Fu et al., >2004a)". How can we say it is properly taken into account that way? >There are a very large population of plausible approaches that could be >taken and to date we have two - a "physical" 2LT and a statistical >T850-300. That is grossly insufficient to make bold statements >regarding one of them properly taking the effect into account. Again, >this needs balance and caveats on the Fu et al. technique until we >resolve unanswered questions. Likewise, T2LT has not been proven to be >untenable in the peer reviewed press - so you cannot make this >statement. My feeling is that we are missing a significant opportunity >here to outline the considerable uncertainty in evolution aloft in >favour of deciding one subset of approaches is right and presenting >this as gospel truth. I am very uncomfortable with this. As I said it >is at significant odds with CCSP. > >page 26. para starting on line 46. Seems almost an afterthought. For >HadAT (at least, but as they are so highly correlated, also highly >likely LKS) the long-term trend in the tropics is entirely an artifact >of the regime shift - if you split time periods then pre- and post-1979 >have negative trends and the whole period has a strong positive trend. >So to state boldly that trends agree and therefore all is well is again >our living in a fools paradise. It is true, but it just shows that >trend metrics are very dangerous beasties and should be handled with >care. The Seidel and lanzante paper should also be quoted here. > >page 68. Bullets on line 15, line 19, and line 31. Again, my concern >here is that these are far too narrow and you are effectively claiming >that one approach is right. Really refers back to my earlier points. >This is painting a light fuzzy grey as black when I don't believe the >science to date supports such an interpretation. > >Page 110, line 55. Containing 676 stations (not CDRs). > >Page 111, line 31 The Thorne et al. referenced is a paper under review >at BAMS that you don't have in your current reference list. Reference >is: Causes of differences in observed climate trends Peter W. Thorne, >David E. Parker, John R. Christy, Carl A. Mears > >Common question 3.2. You'll be unsurprised to hear that I think this >paints too rosy a picture of our understanding the vertical structure >of temperature changes. Observations do not show rising temperatures >throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study >and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright >dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest. > >Phil, hopefully we can find time to discuss these further if necessary >either in Chicago or when I visit in March (has a date been decided >yet?). > >I'll be away from three weeks from today and unable to access this >email account. If we need to iterate further I can be reached >(intermittently) on peterwthorne@btinternet.com but will be fairly busy >and then on holiday in the middle week. > >Peter >-- >Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist >Hadley Centre for climate prediction and research >Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB >Tel:+44 1392 886552 Fax:+44 1392 885681 [3]http://www.hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3772. 2005-02-04 17:31:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Feb 4 17:31:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: Zero order draft of Chapter 3, AR4, IPCC] to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Thanks for trying. Maybe try again at the end of your day or another day when the traffic is less. I downloaded all AR4 chapters at 8am a couple of days ago in 5 minutes. Later it was taking Keith Briffa and Nathan Gillett ages. Doesn't matter if you don't have time. Maybe ask Dennis to do it later. Must really go now ! Phil At 17:17 04/02/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil It did not work: tp> cd incoming 250-You may upload files here for collection by CRU staff. Please remember to email the recipient to let them know you have left something for them. 250 CWD command successful. ftp> put Cchange04.ppt 200 PORT command successful 421 No Transfer Timeout (300 seconds): closing control connection. Seems like it took too long? Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Almost off home but I'll look at your message before going. When you have some time, try ftp'ing [1]ftp.cru.uea.ac.uk anonymous and emails as password cd incoming and put it there. Let me know if you succeed and I can collect it next week on Feb 11. Cheers Phil At 16:39 04/02/2005, you wrote: Phil I tried to attach the ppt with all the figues: but it is too big for your server?? Kevin -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: Zero order draft of Chapter 3, AR4, IPCC Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 09:36:00 -0700 From: Kevin Trenberth [2] To: Phil Jones [3] References: [4]<42024852.7060406@cgd.ucar.edu> [5]<6.1.2.0.0.20050204144545.03dd6830@pop.uea.ac.uk> Hi Phil Not sure how to handle all this. Recall how it was done for GCOS: I don't think that worked. The official version requires each comment to have name etc on it so it can be carved up. The CAs won't do that, so I think we have to treat each CA separately, or at best broken up by section. I can try to get my admin to work on it if we have clear guidelines. I am also concerned about splitting: There are a lot of things that can be done by LAs working in pairs. In previous IPCCs we broke up into sections. Two people worked on each section in parallel. Lots of things can be done that way. But there are some major things that we have to build a consensus on of all of us. I now have a particular interest in making sure the hurricanes are done well. I also am concerend about the UA-MSU etc and clearly you and I should both be engaged there. So sorting out the fairly minor from major points will be a key task. I am not taken by our set of figures. If I look at them and try to create a story e.g. by ppt, I think they are lacking. I am attaching the ones I have assembled. I am away next week in Hawaii at the Chapman conference (AGU). Then I am briefly back and then I am gone and out of touch in New Zealand on personal time 20 Feb to 3 March. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, At least two of the CAs have already begun reading the ZOD. I hope your clear message is followed by all the CAs. Glad you sent the pdf and not the doc version. Tracked changes would be a nightmare. With all these comments, I presume we'll both assemble all the CA comments. WGI will get comments from our nominated (and their) referee's. I presume WGI will somehow collate these, so for example, all comments on section 3.7 or 3.7.1 will be together. Is there a way we can collate all the CA comments similarly? I guess we can decide this later when some more have come in. I reckon we'll have to split the group in Beijing if we are to get through all the comments in the 3.5 days, so separating them would prove useful. Would an email to WGI be useful to see if they can do it for us? Just a thought ! As you saw, I've reminded our LAs with responsibility for linking with other chapters look at that chapter as well. No chance so far to look at the CCSP (vertical temp trends) - 6 sections each of 40-70 pages !! Away from today Feb 6-10 in Madrid (EU project meeting) , 12-20 in Pune (extremes workshop - the last one in the current round, for South Asia) and 22-25 at O'Hare Hilton for the CCSP report. Only here 11th and 21st. Should have email contact in Madrid and Chicago, but Pune may be hit and miss. Still, not much need for too much contact at this time. I'll give the diagrams and other issues some thought whilst away. Albert will be in Pune. Have a good few weeks and I hope the Landsea issue has subsided. Cheers Phil At 15:50 03/02/2005, you wrote: Dear CA The zero order draft of Chapter 3 of the WG1 IPCC AR4 report is now available. Your contribution has helped us put together this draft, and we thank you very much. However, it is NOT yet the first draft; we recognize that it is incomplete in some places (for instance where some CAs did not come through, or through oversight), and we have not even reviewed it fully ourselves, given the tight timetable. So we are seeking constructive comments and your assistance on developing the first draft. What is most helpful is for you to suggest new text and references, and explicit changes. Not "such and such" is bad or needs fixing. We can not promise to use the new text because there are 60 CAs who may well suggest different things. We also have to limit page numbers, so we especially welcome suggestions for shortening. If you care to rewrite a section more succinctly, then we will gladly consider it. The figures are all preliminary and will be thoroughly examined in Beijing in May, so suggestions of improved or more recent figures are welcomed. We also welcome copies of any papers submitted or referred to. I am sending this out in two parts. This part has the text attached as a pdf. It is order 1 MB. The second part includes the figures, many in color, and it is 3.7 MB. We need you comments by 1 April 2005 at the latest. If you prefer to focus only on the section in which your contribution appeared, then that is fine, but you are welcome to comment on other parts as well. If you can not comment or prefer not to for some reason or another, a message to that effect would also be welcomed so we can track responses. Please send your comments, preferably in word, with your name on each page, and clear identification of section, page and line number or figure number. You may like to make a comment, followed by explicit suggestion for addition or change. Please do justify and argue why the change is needed. Please send comments to Kevin Trenberth and Phil Jones, who will assemble them. Many thanks for your help Kevin Trenberth [6]trenbert@ucar.edu Phil Jones [7]p.jones@uea.ac.uk -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [8]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [9]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [10]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [11]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [12]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [13]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [14]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [15]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [16]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [17]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1988. 2005-02-07 15:16:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 7 15:16:38 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: cry for help! to: Henry Pollack Henry I am buried in emails and trying to sort out part of a massive EC proposal . We have only a couple of weeks and 40-60 partners vying for resources! Just been away for 3 days and have loads of teaching in the way too. Will forward the zero order draft as soon as can - literally have not seen it in its entirety myself yet! Thought I sent the 2000 year piece to you , but if not sorry. Remember this is the zero order and much water to flow yet. Tried to incorporate your comments and dodge acerbic ones from elsewhere. Will involve you fully in future discussion and rewriting , thanks for your continued input. Keith At 21:40 03/02/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, I am now somewhat dug out of the deluge that awaited me upon my return from travels in mid-January. I never heard back from you about my comments sent on January 13 and copied below. However, I don't want to let the discussion grow cold. I know that my own contribution needs shaping and refining, but before I do more I need to know your reaction to my critique. To enable things to continue on a slow simmer, I would be grateful to see the latest 'zero-order' draft, along with a time-table for advancing to a 'first-order' draft. I will have more discussion (already I have a few more topics that I did not include in my rushed critique of January 13) to take up with you. Perhaps when Tim Osborne visits later this month he and I can discuss some of these. What do you make of the resignation of Chris Landsea from the IPCC tropical storms working group? Cheers, Henry ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Keith, Thanks for the latest version, which in the borehole discussion differs notably from the earlier version you sent, presumably due to comments from others. Because I am traveling again (leave Friday, back on Tuesday), I will send only a few general comments today, in no particular order. 1. Figure 1b, as discussed on pp.1,2 . This figure shows borehole results, and 'pseudo' borehole results, but the borehole curves are never mentioned explicitly in the text. The pseudo borehole results are the so-called 'optimal' results of Mann. Mike has never analyzed borehole temperatures; he simply manipulated reconstructions that I sent him, in a manner that dealt with spatial noise in a totally inadequate way. I think it is inappropriate to show the so-called 'optimal' reconstruction because it is flawed (even after the correction of gridding errors); the gridded curve should be the one shown in Pollack & Smerdon 2004, not the Briffa and Osborn 2002. Tim has told me of how that was constructed, and the P&S 04 version should be substituted. 2. Your discussion of uncertainty on pages 4,5 is good. The paragraph following acknowledges that there is generally greater centennial-scale variability in the ensemble of reconstructions than is displayed in the hockey stick. I think the hockey stick is effectively an end-member reconstruction, rather than a 'centrist' whose uncertainty bounds encompass all other reconstructions. 3. The statistical efforts (yours, others) to retain more long period variability in the dendro series have led to greater variability in the reconstructions, all toward a cooler past in the 16th-17th centuries. There is no a priori reason that the improved dendro series should have led to a cooler past; retention of more long period variability might conceivably have led to a warmer past, but it did not. That makes me think that the 16th-17th centuries were indeed cooler than the hockey stick portrays. 4. page 7. The Von Storch, Zorita model results suggest that the regression reconstruction techniques do not extract signals well in the presence of noise. There is a new paper soon to be submitted by Tom Crowley, Gabi Hegerl et al that reaches a similar conclusion. I believe that this is an important issue, one that is at the heart of my criticism of how Mike Mann re-analyzed the borehole results. May I suggest that in the FOD (first order draft) that you include a discussion of field reconstruction methodologies, particularly as to how they fare in the presence of noise. This would compare and contrast the regression techniques, the von Storch approach, the Crowley approach, the revised Rutherford Mann (2005)methodology, and perhaps the wavelet approach that Anders Moberg has proposed. I do not think that the problem that you cite in the last paragraph on p.7 is strictly with the particular simulation of Von Storch. The same general conclusions are reached in the new Crowley, Hegerl paper, which use different inputs. 5. It is not clear what you are saying on p.8, 3rd paragraph when you say that the GST histories imply a very much higher level of 'recent' warmth when compared to the general picture of proxy reconstructions. If 'recent' means the period of the instrumental record, the GST reconstructions compare very well, and if anything are a little muted. Moreover, both the von Storch and the new Crowley results show a very good overlap in the 17th century of borehole reconstructions with proxy reconstructions that use non-regression reconstruction methods. 6.GCM simulations are new players in the reconstruction arena. The work of Von Storch, Simon Tett, Caspar Ammann are examples. I think a discussion of how these are being integrated into the historical debate would be useful. You make the point that there are few new proxy data since the TAR. But what is new are the methods of reconstructing the climate field , and the role of the GCMs in testing certain methodologies with pseudo-proxies. The field has come quite a way from what is in the TAR, but your summary seems to convey the feeling that little has changed. 7. I am not offering any comments on the rest of the material (hydrological, etc.), as I have not had time to digest it yet. Thanks for the opportunity to comment! The comments are offered in the most constructive of spirit. You have undertaken a task of which I have not the slightest of envy. I am confident that the final product will be fair and balanced. Please let me know the time frame of when this document will undergo further shaping and refinement. I am grateful to have had the opportunity to participate. Cheers, Henry ___ ___ Henry N. Pollack [ \ / ] Professor of Geophysics | \/ | Department of Geological Sciences |MICHIGAN| University of Michigan [___]\/[___] Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1063, U.S.A. Phone: 734-763-0084 FAX: 734-763-4690 e-mail: hpollack@umich.edu URL: [1]http://www.geo.lsa.umich.edu/~hpollack URL: www-personal.umich.edu/~hpollack/book.html -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3971. 2005-02-07 16:00:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 7 16:00:07 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: FW: TOR temperature reconstruction to: "Myles Allen" , "Gabi Hegerl" , "Martin Juckes" Myles et al Thanks fot the offer .The subject is exercising many minds , and no doubt much parallel effort is underway to reassess the methodology and results of the Hockey Stick , and review the issues of anthropogenic versus natural forcing of millennium and recent climate change. The coming Moberg Nature paper , while not adding much to the Science, will likely fuel the discussion further. Not unexpectedly we (myself, Tim Osborn, and colleagues In the Hadley Centre and Germany ), will work on the issue . Already , problems with the Von Storch paper have been identified and a paper submitted by other German colleagues pointing this out. The money on offer from the call seems low and the time scale for the work tight. Hence, we would be happy to collaborate , but the level would perhaps be best kept low - Not that this is not of fundamental importance and priority , but because we are very committed and over the next 2 to 3 weeks , especially so , working on an EC proposal (that will contain a significant element of methodological work in this area). The bottom line then is that I and Tim would be happy to be named as collaborators (perhaps just wit a little money to cover attending a meeting?) but could not likely over-commit to a strict timetable. We will not be putting in a competing proposal. cheers Keith 14:55 07/02/2005, Myles Allen wrote: Dear Gabi, Keith and Martin, I have just received the enclosed invitation-to-tender from RIVM (perhaps you have received it as well). As it happens, both Gabi and I and Martin Juckes and I have been talking extensively about this issue, and Gabi and Martin have already (independently) made a good deal of progress. In case you haven't met, Martin is an expert in optimal estimation working at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory as well as here in Oxford. Would you be interested in responding to this call together? It would seem like a good opportunity to bring these strands together. Myles Climate Dynamics Group Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics, University of Oxford Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 Fax: 44-1865-272923 E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk -----Original Message----- From: Bertjan Heij [[1]mailto:Bertjan.Heij@rivm.nl] Sent: 07 February 2005 11:22 To: Myles Allen Subject: TOR temperature reconstruction Dear Dr. Allen, I've got your name from our Met Office staff (KNMI, the Netherlands). They suggested that you might be interested in carrying out an assessment on reconstruction of temperatures of the past 1000 years (the 'hockeystick'). Attached you find the context (the subprogramme WAB of the Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change) and the Terms of Reference for the project . Please let me know whether you are interested to submit a project proposal, based on the TOR. Sincerely, BertJan Heij (See attached file: 10-10 TORlaatsteversie-EN.doc)(See attached file: wab internettekst rapinfo-engels.doc) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP CC) P.O. Box 1 (pb 59) 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands tel.: 31 30 2743108 fax: 31 30 2744436 Hét platform voor klimaatkennis in Nederland: [2]www.klimaatportaal.nl e-mail: bertjan.heij@rivm.nl -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________________________ "Dit bericht en eventuele aangehechte bestanden zijn vertrouwelijk en uitsluitend bestemd voor de geadresseerde. Ongeautoriseerde verstrekking of bekendmaking aan en gebruik door anderen zijn niet toegestaan. Als u dit bericht per vergissing hebt ontvangen wordt u verzocht dit onmiddellijk aan de afzender te melden en het bericht van uw systemen te verwijderen. De werkgever van de afzender kan niet garanderen dat de verzonden en/of ontvangen informatie juist is en aanvaardt geen aansprakelijkheid voor schade die eruit kan voortvloeien." "This message and any files transmitted with it may contain confidential information and is solely intended for the addressee(s). Any unauthorized disclosure or actions taken in reliance on it are forbidden. If you have received this message in error, please delete it and notify the sender. The employer of the sender does not guarantee that the information sent and/or received is correct and does not accept any liability for damages related thereto." -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1160. 2005-02-07 17:08:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 7 17:08:01 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: [Wg1-ar4-las] Zero Order Draft Accessibility to: Henry Pollack Henry - try the link at the bottom of this email - please keep confidential for now cheers Keith Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 13:58:33 -0700 From: Scott Longmore User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:1.7.2) Gecko/20040804 Netscape/7.2 (ax) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu X-Mailman-Approved-At: Wed, 02 Feb 2005 14:04:26 -0700 Subject: [Wg1-ar4-las] Zero Order Draft Accessibility X-BeenThere: wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 List-Id: List-Help: <[1]mailto:wg1-ar4-las-request@joss.ucar.edu?subject=help> List-Post: <[2]mailto:wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu> List-Subscribe: <[3]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-las>, <[4]mailto:wg1-ar4-las-request@joss.ucar.edu?subject=subscribe> List-Archive: <[5]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/private/wg1-ar4-las> List-Unsubscribe: <[6]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-las>, <[7]mailto:wg1-ar4-las-request@joss.ucar.edu?subject=unsubscribe> Sender: wg1-ar4-las-bounces@joss.ucar.edu X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-UEA-MailScanner-SpamScore: s Dear Lead Authors, A few of you have had trouble downloading the Zero Order Drafts via the Author Resource Final Zero Order Drafts webpage. An alternative method for downloading the drafts is to connect directly using a FTP client to the server: SERVER: [8]FTP.JOSS.UCAR.EDU ACCOUNT: wg1_gnrl PASSWORD: EQ0KW0WG DIRECTORY: /pub/ZOD The FTP server information has also been detailed on the Author Resource Final Zero Order Drafts webpage. Regards, IPCC WG1 TSU _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-las mailing list Wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu [9]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-las -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [10]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4769. 2005-02-07 21:46:29 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 21:46:29 +0000 from: "Folland, Chris" subject: FW: SCEPTICS to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Keith Message failed first time - my fault. Please see below Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)===== Original Message From "Folland, Chris" > ===== >Phil > >See below. I have been asked to reply - it's a message to John >Houghton. Can you email me Jones et al 1998 and the Briffa paper? > >Thanks > >Chris > >OBSERVATIONS OF A SKEPTIC >In Sir Houghton's book Global Warming: the Complete Briefing , >published in 1994, he emphasizes (pp 51-52) the widespread evidence of a medieval warm period. This was also shown in the SAR. > >As of 1997, there were several studies offering hemispheric or global averages: >-The borehole records of Huang, Pollack and Shen, published in GRL in >1997, showing a strong MWP much warmer than today >-The graphs of Briffa and Jones that appear in Figure 2.21 -The Mann >hockey stick with the peak in the late 20th century > >THe hockey stick is the only reconstruction shown in the Summary (why?) >and is the sole basis for the claim that temperatures are the highest in 1000 years. On page 134 in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report the hockey stick is printed twice, in two half-page, full colour versions, one above the other. In Figure 2.20 it is graphed alone. In Figure 2.21 it is overlaid with one graph due to P. Jones and the other due to K. Briffa. The original Jones graph (published in The Holocene in 1998) does not look like a hockey stick, as the "warmest" years are AD1106, AD1074, and AD1103, and the warmest decade is the 1930s. This is not visible in the IPCC version because the line is so heavily smoothed (why?-- the Hockey stick is shown unsmoothed in Fig 2.20). The original Briffa graph (published in Quaternary Science Reviews in 2000) also reaches peak values in the 11th century, but this is not visible in the IPCC presentation since the first 400 years were left out (why?). > >Two graphs of data based on borehole temperature measurements by Huang >et al don't look like the hockey stick either, but one is banished to a small chart on an earlier page (p. 132) and the other is mentioned in the text but is not reproduced at all. Why? > > > > >Professor Chris Folland > >Head of Climate Variability Research > >Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org > >Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United >Kingdom >Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk >Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 >Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 > (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > >Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of >East Anglia 1847. 2005-02-08 09:27:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 08 Feb 2005 09:27:37 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: FW: SCEPTICS to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Keith - here's my reply to Chris Folland (cc'd to you but with a typo in your email address, so it got returned). - Tim Chris, I've attached electronic reprints of the two relevant papers. In both cases the figures are rather low resolution. For the Briffa et al. paper I've also included better resolution copies of the 3 colour plates as separate files. At 21:43 07/02/2005, Folland, Chris wrote: >The original Briffa graph (published in Quaternary Science Reviews in 2000) >also reaches peak values in the 11th century, but this is not visible in the >IPCC presentation since the first 400 years were left out (why?). Important point! The real reference for the Briffa curve shown in the IPCC TAR is Briffa et al. (J. Geophys. Res., 2001 - the attached reprint) and goes back only to 1400, as shown in the TAR. Although this paper was published in January 2001, I think it was too late to put in the final reference including page numbers. I don't know how it got attributed to Briffa (Quaternary Science Reviews, 2000) because that shows a completely different reconstruction which does go back to 1000, but which was based on tree-ring width not tree-ring density and from only three sites in northern Eurasia. If you also want a copy of the QSR 2000 paper, then you'll need to ask Keith because I don't have an electronic copy. Best wishes Tim Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Plate1_Briffa2001.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Plate2_Briffa2001.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Plate3_Briffa2001.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Briffa2001_lowres_plates.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\jones1998recon_holocene.pdf" Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 1918. 2005-02-08 11:17:24 ______________________________________________________ cc: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, masson@lsce.saclay.cea.fr, hutterli@climate.unibe.ch, karin@natgeo.su.se, dirk.verschuren@UGent.be, carin.andersson@geo.uib.no, John.Birks@bot.uib.no, dan.charman@plymouth.ac.uk, juerg.beer@eawag.ch, hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de date: Tue Feb 8 11:17:24 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: IMPRINT to: "Lotter, prof. dr. A.F." Andy the tree-ring stuff will all be collated in 1.1. I would suggest ice core data and varves would be better in 1.2 but would like Valerie to comment - in the meantime assume they are in 1.2. 1.4 does include peat and rhizopods. The CO2 from stomatal density does not fit in the project - we will get this information from the ice cores. Valerie , please comment when you can. Keith At 10:50 08/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Keith, Slowly I am getting an overview over Task 1.2 Yet there are still some points that need clarification from your part: - Does 1.1 include ice-core data, varves and tree rings? I assume so. This would then also signify that 1.1 would be responsible to collate long time series of tree-ring and varve data in relation to Holocene climate reconstruction - Does 1.4 include peat records and rhizopods? Seeing Dan Charman as one of the taskleader I assume so, which would also mean that 1.4 collates these data - What about CO2 reconstructions for the Holocene that do not derive from ice-cores? I am thinking of stomatal density derived CO2 records. They would fit into 1.5 but I am not sure whether the ice-core lobby will be happy to deal with them as they tend to show somewhat different results. Could you let me have a quick answer? Many thanks, Andy ******************************************************************* Prof. Dr. Andre F. Lotter Dept. of Palaeoecology Utrecht University Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology Budapestlaan 4 NL-3584 CD Utrecht - The Netherlands Tel. direct +31 30 2532653 Tel. secretary +31 30 2532629 Fax +31 30 2535096 e-mail [1]a.f.lotter@bio.uu.nl WWW [2]http://www.bio.uu.nl/~palaeo/Engels/engels.html ******************************************************************* -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4754. 2005-02-08 11:50:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 8 Feb 2005 11:50:28 +0100 from: "Lotter, prof. dr. A.F." subject: IMPRINT to: Dear Keith, Slowly I am getting an overview over Task 1.2 Yet there are still some points that need clarification from your part: - Does 1.1 include ice-core data, varves and tree rings? I assume so. This would then also signify that 1.1 would be responsible to collate long time series of tree-ring and varve data in relation to Holocene climate reconstruction - Does 1.4 include peat records and rhizopods? Seeing Dan Charman as one of the taskleader I assume so, which would also mean that 1.4 collates these data - What about CO2 reconstructions for the Holocene that do not derive from ice-cores? I am thinking of stomatal density derived CO2 records. They would fit into 1.5 but I am not sure whether the ice-core lobby will be happy to deal with them as they tend to show somewhat different results. Could you let me have a quick answer? Many thanks, Andy ******************************************************************* Prof. Dr. Andre F. Lotter Dept. of Palaeoecology Utrecht University Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology Budapestlaan 4 NL-3584 CD Utrecht - The Netherlands Tel. direct +31 30 2532653 Tel. secretary +31 30 2532629 Fax +31 30 2535096 e-mail [1]a.f.lotter@bio.uu.nl WWW [2]http://www.bio.uu.nl/~palaeo/Engels/engels.html ******************************************************************* 1418. 2005-02-08 12:41:07 ______________________________________________________ cc: , , , , , , , , date: Tue Feb 8 12:41:07 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: RE: IMPRINT to: "Dan Charman" , "Lotter, prof. dr. A.F." Just to give an idea at this stage, I suspect that the nominal 740K E for each task , will be shifted perhaps to less in 1.5 ,1.4, and 1.3, more in 1.1 and 1.2 (the 1.1 needing to hold the "consultancy" pot for bringing in other data suppliers to workshops and including updating of selected tree-ring records. However, we do not yet have the total task deliverables and requests to see the balance. The specific focus for integrating the various records will have to be explicit somewhere (though will be done by all to some extent) and I am assuming this will be in 1.1? At 11:28 08/02/2005, Dan Charman wrote: Hi Andy/Keith Yes we will cover all the peat data in 1.4. The question is whether we split the nominal budget between 1.4 and 1.2 for this work. I have no preference as long as we have the money to do the job from somewhere! I guess this is an issue that affects many other parts of IMPRINT in a similar way. I gather from the emails on ice core data that we should probably split the budget between tasks where we are working on data relevant to both. Can you indicate what you would prefer Andy/Keith/Valerie? Thanks. Dan ________________________________ From: Keith Briffa [[1]mailto:k.briffa@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Tue 08/02/2005 11:17 To: Lotter, prof. dr. A.F. Cc: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk; masson@lsce.saclay.cea.fr; hutterli@climate.unibe.ch; karin@natgeo.su.se; dirk.verschuren@UGent.be; carin.andersson@geo.uib.no; John.Birks@bot.uib.no; Dan Charman; juerg.beer@eawag.ch; hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de Subject: Re: IMPRINT Andy the tree-ring stuff will all be collated in 1.1. I would suggest ice core data and varves would be better in 1.2 but would like Valerie to comment - in the meantime assume they are in 1.2. 1.4 does include peat and rhizopods. The CO2 from stomatal density does not fit in the project - we will get this information from the ice cores. Valerie , please comment when you can. Keith At 10:50 08/02/2005, you wrote: >Dear Keith, > >Slowly I am getting an overview over Task 1.2 >Yet there are still some points that need clarification from your part: > >- Does 1.1 include ice-core data, varves and tree rings? I assume >so. This would then also signify that 1.1 would be responsible to collate >long time series of tree-ring and varve data in relation to Holocene >climate reconstruction >- Does 1.4 include peat records and rhizopods? Seeing Dan Charman >as one of the taskleader I assume so, which would also mean that 1.4 >collates these data >- What about CO2 reconstructions for the Holocene that do not >derive from ice-cores? I am thinking of stomatal density derived CO2 >records. They would fit into 1.5 but I am not sure whether the ice-core >lobby will be happy to deal with them as they tend to show somewhat >different results. > >Could you let me have a quick answer? > >Many thanks, > >Andy > >******************************************************************* >Prof. Dr. Andre F. Lotter >Dept. of Palaeoecology >Utrecht University >Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology >Budapestlaan 4 >NL-3584 CD Utrecht - The Netherlands > >Tel. direct +31 30 2532653 >Tel. secretary +31 30 2532629 >Fax +31 30 2535096 >e-mail <[2]mailto:a.f.lotter@bio.uu.nl>a.f.lotter@bio.uu.nl >WWW ><[3]http://www.bio.uu.nl/~palaeo/?Engels/engels.html>http://www.bio.uu.nl/~palaeo/Engel s/engels.html > >******************************************************************* > -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3674. 2005-02-08 13:53:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 8 Feb 2005 13:53:03 +0000 from: David Viner subject: Re: Press Summaries for Tuesday 8th February 2005 to: Tim Osborn , k.briffa Briffa Lenton's Words(amongst others having ago at CC science). Scientists at UEA have also cast doubt on the famous hockey stick graph used to convince us that global warming is a recent phenomena, with no allowance made for the well documented medieval warm period and the later Little Ice Age. The graph and its scary supporters assume that the climate in northern Europe over the past millennium has been roughly constant, but Timothy Osborn and Keith Briffa conclude that the true variability is likely to be much greater, and if it is, "the extent to which the recent warming can be viewed as 'unusual' would need to be reassessed". Tim and Keith The essay by HVS is all well and good, but that does not address the Lenton article in which you are either correctly represented or not. Do you agree with Lenton's precise words or not? Simple Yes or No? If you support Lenton's comments then the Unit needs to have a big discussion about them. If you do not then you should contact Lenton and put him right. If Lenton is wrong and you do not correct him then it will be people like me who have to pick up the pieces and spend more time addressing them, than you will spend by writing a short email to him. So do you want to take a few minutes now sending an email to Lenton or spend a greater amount of time taking this issue further. In new Scientist Tim is quoted: Arial"One of the conclusions we draw is that the climate’s sensitivity might be higher, and therefore future climate change will be greater,” So why can not you send this short excerpt to Lenton and a further piece to put him straight? David PS The issue about over dramatisation is one carried out by the media or pressure groups, and very rarely the scientists themselves, the other extracts of HVS's story aren't very good either. On 8 Feb 2005, at 12:40, Tim Osborn wrote: At 11:59 08/02/2005, David Viner wrote: Dear Keith and Tim please see below a summary of Lenton's piece. If you are happy with this fine, I and others here will pick up the pieces. If not it would be good if you could correct Lenton, if not it will just keep resurfacing every-time we speak to the media or give public presentations. It may mean a bit of hassle in the short term for you but is likely to create a lot more hassle for others. Cheers David David - here are some relevant excerpts from an essay recently published by von Storch: "...there is indeed a serious problem for the natural sciences: namely, the public depiction and perception of climate change. Research has landed in a crisis because its public actors assert themselves on the saturated market of discussion by overselling the topic.... ...The costs of stirring up fear are high... A scarce resource - public attention and trust in the reliability of science - is used up without being renewed by the practice of positive examples... ...The concealment of dissent and uncertainty in favor of a politically good cause takes its toll on credibility, for the public is more intelligent than is usually assumed. In the long term, these allegedly so helpful dramatizations achieve the opposite of that which they wish to achieve." Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Geneva+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Dr David Viner Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ Tel: +44 1603 592089 Fax: +44 1603 507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link http://www.e-clat.org Tourism and Climate Change http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 685. 2005-02-09 04:38:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Lotter, prof. dr. A.F." , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, masson@dsm-mail.saclay.cea.fr, hutterli@climate.unibe.ch, karin@natgeo.su.se, dirk.verschuren@ugent.be, carin.andersson@geo.uib.no, john.birks@bot.uib.no, dan.charman@plymouth.ac.uk, juerg.beer@eawag.ch, hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de date: Wed, 9 Feb 2005 04:38:32 +0100 (CET) from: Valérie Masson-Delmotte subject: Re: IMPRINT to: "Keith Briffa" Dear all, If you want to restrict 1.1 to annually resolved records then only very few ice core data would fit (Greenland, very relevant for the stability of teleconnections and NAO type reconstructions). The rest of high res proxy data from ice cores and lake seds would fit into 1.2 and/or 1.3 depending on dating controls. As for CO2 various reconstructions : could not it be that part of the discrepancies between ice cores and stomatal proxies can be reconciled if changes in water stress for stomata are included, which would be relevant for 1.4 ?? Valerie > Andy > the tree-ring stuff will all be collated in 1.1. I would suggest ice core > data and varves would be better in 1.2 but would like Valerie to comment > - > in the meantime assume they are in 1.2. 1.4 does include peat and > rhizopods. The CO2 from stomatal density does not fit in the project - we > will get this information from the ice cores. > > Valerie , please comment when you can. Keith > > > At 10:50 08/02/2005, you wrote: >>Dear Keith, >> >>Slowly I am getting an overview over Task 1.2 >>Yet there are still some points that need clarification from your part: >> >>- Does 1.1 include ice-core data, varves and tree rings? I >> assume >>so. This would then also signify that 1.1 would be responsible to collate >>long time series of tree-ring and varve data in relation to Holocene >>climate reconstruction >>- Does 1.4 include peat records and rhizopods? Seeing Dan >> Charman >>as one of the taskleader I assume so, which would also mean that 1.4 >>collates these data >>- What about CO2 reconstructions for the Holocene that do not >>derive from ice-cores? I am thinking of stomatal density derived CO2 >>records. They would fit into 1.5 but I am not sure whether the ice-core >>lobby will be happy to deal with them as they tend to show somewhat >>different results. >> >>Could you let me have a quick answer? >> >>Many thanks, >> >>Andy >> >>******************************************************************* >>Prof. Dr. Andre F. Lotter >>Dept. of Palaeoecology >>Utrecht University >>Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology >>Budapestlaan 4 >>NL-3584 CD Utrecht - The Netherlands >> >>Tel. direct +31 30 2532653 >>Tel. secretary +31 30 2532629 >>Fax +31 30 2535096 >>e-mail a.f.lotter@bio.uu.nl >>WWW >>http://www.bio.uu.nl/~palaeo/Engels/engels.html >> >>******************************************************************* >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > -- Valerie. ____________________________________________________________________________ Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (UMR CEA/CNRS 1572) Bat 701, L'Orme des Merisiers CEA Saclay, 91 191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex , France Tel. (33) 1 69 08 77 15, Fax. (33) 1 69 08 77 16 2686. 2005-02-09 07:49:02 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 07:49:02 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: CLIVAR abstract to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, Thanks for the clarification. I have seen the zero order draft and have looked over it, though not yet in full detail. On the whole appears quite fair, and balanced, and comprehensive. Very nice job! I still think the borehole discussion is a bit unbalanced. It sounds a lot like Henry Pollock to me. The Gonzalez-Rouco simulation is, as we know, somewhat questionable, and there is no discussion of the GISS simulation by Mann and Schmidt which suggests a likely low-frequency bias. So I'm likely to comment on this in my "official" remarks as a reviewer for the chapter (seems a bit odd that I'm both a contributor and reviewer, but as long as you all don't mind, I don't either). Other than that, I think my comments will probably be minor (you know how rare that is!). I see that the comments are due in early April, so I'll probably wait until it gets close so that I can provide an update on the status of in-review/in-press manuscripts. For example, I'm hoping to work w/ Phil on a sort-of response to Moberg et al, which should be quite clarifying (we can get the same result as them, basically, using the Mann and Jones series and a similar approach to what they did, but I think I can show that the approach does very poorly w/ pseudoproxies). By the way, the Mann et al J. Climate letter on the CCSM Pseudoproxy experiments in now provisionally accepted. Will keep you updated. Thanks again for keeping me updated, and congratulations on a wonderful job w/ the ZOD. Its an improvement on what we had in the TAR for sure, and I really like the fact that it gives justice to the large amount of work that has been done by the community since then... thanks again, mike (At 03:50 AM 2/9/2005, you wrote: Sorry !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can see that I am in "headless chicken mode" - no idea how this message got reworked into my inbox! Have you seen the zero order draft ? Where are we with balancing views? Keith At 16:54 08/02/2005, you wrote: HI Keith, Thanks--this is a very old message. I think we provided this abstract many months ago already. SO, unless I misunderstand, nothing for us to do here, I think?? Mike At 11:33 AM 2/8/05, Keith Briffa wrote: Mike just seen this email - please forward their request again and I will look again cheers Keith At 22:43 12/11/2003, you wrote: Dear Keith, No doubt you got the reminder that the CLIVAR folks want a (400 word) abstract from us by Dec 15th for the June meeting. Did you want to take the first stab at this, then we can iterate back and forth a bit? let me know how you want to proceed w/ this... Thanks, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ _______________________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4948. 2005-02-09 10:16:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tim Osborn date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 10:16:12 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: CLIVAR abstract to: Keith Briffa Thanks Keith, Wow--you're echoing my thoughts exactly. I really can't believe Nature published this. The problems seem to jump out at you when you read what they've done. I can only assume that the borehole folks and Von Storch and company pushed this (as reviewers, or otherwise). Heike Langenberg was a von Storch post-doc, but she's always struck me as honest and independent--I'd hate to think otherwise... I'm doing some experiments right now w/ CCSM3 pseudoproxies emulating what they've done as we speak. I'll plan to send these to you guys and Phil, as soon as I've got some results. We could join efforts in a response, or both write separate responses. Whatever you think makes more sense. In any case, I want to show you guys the results and get your thoughts... Thanks again, Mike At 10:07 AM 2/9/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: thanks for this . I have to say that I do not think the Moberg paper advances the Science much. Need to see supplementary information , but my initial thought is that there are real problems with their treatment of the "low frequency data" . We are weighed down with trying to put a large European proposal together , but Tim and I are toying wit the idea of writing a response. I find it a bit irritating that they couch their piece as a specific criticism of the M+J series and virtually ignore the other reconstructions , hence setting up a straw Mann (ha ha) . Problem is that thsi juxtaposition of boreholes ,Echo-G and their series will create a new "state of the art" of (apparently) mutually reinforcing evidence. At 12:49 09/02/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, Thanks for the clarification. I have seen the zero order draft and have looked over it, though not yet in full detail. On the whole appears quite fair, and balanced, and comprehensive. Very nice job! I still think the borehole discussion is a bit unbalanced. It sounds a lot like Henry Pollock to me. The Gonzalez-Rouco simulation is, as we know, somewhat questionable, and there is no discussion of the GISS simulation by Mann and Schmidt which suggests a likely low-frequency bias. So I'm likely to comment on this in my "official" remarks as a reviewer for the chapter (seems a bit odd that I'm both a contributor and reviewer, but as long as you all don't mind, I don't either). Other than that, I think my comments will probably be minor (you know how rare that is!). I see that the comments are due in early April, so I'll probably wait until it gets close so that I can provide an update on the status of in-review/in-press manuscripts. For example, I'm hoping to work w/ Phil on a sort-of response to Moberg et al, which should be quite clarifying (we can get the same result as them, basically, using the Mann and Jones series and a similar approach to what they did, but I think I can show that the approach does very poorly w/ pseudoproxies). By the way, the Mann et al J. Climate letter on the CCSM Pseudoproxy experiments in now provisionally accepted. Will keep you updated. Thanks again for keeping me updated, and congratulations on a wonderful job w/ the ZOD. Its an improvement on what we had in the TAR for sure, and I really like the fact that it gives justice to the large amount of work that has been done by the community since then... thanks again, mike (At 03:50 AM 2/9/2005, you wrote: Sorry !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can see that I am in "headless chicken mode" - no idea how this message got reworked into my inbox! Have you seen the zero order draft ? Where are we with balancing views? Keith At 16:54 08/02/2005, you wrote: HI Keith, Thanks--this is a very old message. I think we provided this abstract many months ago already. SO, unless I misunderstand, nothing for us to do here, I think?? Mike At 11:33 AM 2/8/05, Keith Briffa wrote: Mike just seen this email - please forward their request again and I will look again cheers Keith At 22:43 12/11/2003, you wrote: Dear Keith, No doubt you got the reminder that the CLIVAR folks want a (400 word) abstract from us by Dec 15th for the June meeting. Did you want to take the first stab at this, then we can iterate back and forth a bit? let me know how you want to proceed w/ this... Thanks, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ _______________________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [7]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 2572. 2005-02-09 11:09:57 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tim Osborn , Phil Jones date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 11:09:57 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: CLIVAR abstract to: Keith Briffa Dear Keith, Phil, Tim: I'm attaching a preliminary result. Let me first explain what I've done. I've adapted to the Mann and Jones composite scheme and applied to pseudoproxies from Caspar's forced CSM1.4 coupled model experiment. The Pseudoproxy experiments and "Composite-Plus-Scale" scheme are described in more detail in the attached paper (provisionally accepted as letter in J. Climate, but likely to change a bit in response to reviewers). I've also attached the "supplementary information" from the paper. I've attached the result of an experiment using an average SNR=0.25, and I've compared the standard composite scheme (i.e., the Mann and Jones approach, but really the way we've all done this sorts of composites in the past, more or less), and the "Moberg" scheme. I've implemented the MOberg scheme in the following way. All pseudoproxies are initially decadally-smoothed since this is the typical starting point (e.g. Crowley and Lowery, Bradley and Jones, and Mann and Jones are all based on decadal resolution proxies) I choose half of the 12 pseudproxies for the low frequency calibration (>80 year periods), and the other half for the high-frequency calibration (<80 year periods). To emulate their use of low-resolution proxies, I first lowpass (at 40 year period) the proxies to be used in the low-frequency calibration (this approximates the smoothness of the sed cores, boreholes, etc.). This turns out to be the essential step. Because, Moberg et al standardized all proxies by their nominal standard deviation. This means that the low-res proxies (which have almost most of their variance at multidecadal timescales), get near unit weight in any compositing, while the high-res (i.e., "tree-ring" proxies), get downweighted because they have significant variance in both bands, so they get only a fraction of a unit weight. In short, the Moberg et al standardization procedure overweights the low-res proxies by design. Indeed, my experiment demonstrates this. I use their scheme, standardizing all proxies by nominal sd first, then separately composite the high f and low f components, recombine, and then standardize by the target (NH) series (i.e., I apply same mean and decadal standard deviation to composite as in the target true model NH series). The attached comparison shows a comparison of actual model NH series (red), Mann and Jones (e.g. standard) compositing approach w/ the 12 pseudoproxies (black), and the Moberg et al scheme (blue). As discussed in our J. Climate letter, CPS will underestimate the low f variance at low SNR, and that's clear here (red curve lies a bit colder than black). But what really jumps out here is the spurious low f variability (in this case, anomalous multidecadal cooling periods) w/ the Moberg scheme. This is just one example. I need to try some more, but the answer that is emerging is that their scheme imposes spurious low-frequency variability. Will update you when I have more complete results. Let me know what you think... Thanks, mike At 10:07 AM 2/9/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: thanks for this . I have to say that I do not think the Moberg paper advances the Science much. Need to see supplementary information , but my initial thought is that there are real problems with their treatment of the "low frequency data" . We are weighed down with trying to put a large European proposal together , but Tim and I are toying wit the idea of writing a response. I find it a bit irritating that they couch their piece as a specific criticism of the M+J series and virtually ignore the other reconstructions , hence setting up a straw Mann (ha ha) . Problem is that thsi juxtaposition of boreholes ,Echo-G and their series will create a new "state of the art" of (apparently) mutually reinforcing evidence. At 12:49 09/02/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, Thanks for the clarification. I have seen the zero order draft and have looked over it, though not yet in full detail. On the whole appears quite fair, and balanced, and comprehensive. Very nice job! I still think the borehole discussion is a bit unbalanced. It sounds a lot like Henry Pollock to me. The Gonzalez-Rouco simulation is, as we know, somewhat questionable, and there is no discussion of the GISS simulation by Mann and Schmidt which suggests a likely low-frequency bias. So I'm likely to comment on this in my "official" remarks as a reviewer for the chapter (seems a bit odd that I'm both a contributor and reviewer, but as long as you all don't mind, I don't either). Other than that, I think my comments will probably be minor (you know how rare that is!). I see that the comments are due in early April, so I'll probably wait until it gets close so that I can provide an update on the status of in-review/in-press manuscripts. For example, I'm hoping to work w/ Phil on a sort-of response to Moberg et al, which should be quite clarifying (we can get the same result as them, basically, using the Mann and Jones series and a similar approach to what they did, but I think I can show that the approach does very poorly w/ pseudoproxies). By the way, the Mann et al J. Climate letter on the CCSM Pseudoproxy experiments in now provisionally accepted. Will keep you updated. Thanks again for keeping me updated, and congratulations on a wonderful job w/ the ZOD. Its an improvement on what we had in the TAR for sure, and I really like the fact that it gives justice to the large amount of work that has been done by the community since then... thanks again, mike (At 03:50 AM 2/9/2005, you wrote: Sorry !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can see that I am in "headless chicken mode" - no idea how this message got reworked into my inbox! Have you seen the zero order draft ? Where are we with balancing views? Keith At 16:54 08/02/2005, you wrote: HI Keith, Thanks--this is a very old message. I think we provided this abstract many months ago already. SO, unless I misunderstand, nothing for us to do here, I think?? Mike At 11:33 AM 2/8/05, Keith Briffa wrote: Mike just seen this email - please forward their request again and I will look again cheers Keith At 22:43 12/11/2003, you wrote: Dear Keith, No doubt you got the reminder that the CLIVAR folks want a (400 word) abstract from us by Dec 15th for the June meeting. Did you want to take the first stab at this, then we can iterate back and forth a bit? let me know how you want to proceed w/ this... Thanks, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ _______________________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [7]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\pseudoproxy-jclimlett2.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\supplementary2.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\CompareSNR0pt25.pdf" 633. 2005-02-09 11:14:17 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 11:14:17 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Fwd: Re: CLIVAR abstract to: Keith Briffa , Phil Jones , Tim Osborn just to clarify, the "calibration period" (i.e., the period over which the composite is standardized to the actual model series) is 1856-1980, as in Mann and Jones, and MOberg et al... mike Date: Wed, 09 Feb 2005 11:09:57 -0500 To: Keith Briffa From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: Re: CLIVAR abstract Cc: Tim Osborn , Phil Jones Dear Keith, Phil, Tim: I'm attaching a preliminary result. Let me first explain what I've done. I've adapted to the Mann and Jones composite scheme and applied to pseudoproxies from Caspar's forced CSM1.4 coupled model experiment. The Pseudoproxy experiments and "Composite-Plus-Scale" scheme are described in more detail in the attached paper (provisionally accepted as letter in J. Climate, but likely to change a bit in response to reviewers). I've also attached the "supplementary information" from the paper. I've attached the result of an experiment using an average SNR=0.25, and I've compared the standard composite scheme (i.e., the Mann and Jones approach, but really the way we've all done this sorts of composites in the past, more or less), and the "Moberg" scheme. I've implemented the MOberg scheme in the following way. All pseudoproxies are initially decadally-smoothed since this is the typical starting point (e.g. Crowley and Lowery, Bradley and Jones, and Mann and Jones are all based on decadal resolution proxies) I choose half of the 12 pseudproxies for the low frequency calibration (>80 year periods), and the other half for the high-frequency calibration (<80 year periods). To emulate their use of low-resolution proxies, I first lowpass (at 40 year period) the proxies to be used in the low-frequency calibration (this approximates the smoothness of the sed cores, boreholes, etc.). This turns out to be the essential step. Because, Moberg et al standardized all proxies by their nominal standard deviation. This means that the low-res proxies (which have almost most of their variance at multidecadal timescales), get near unit weight in any compositing, while the high-res (i.e., "tree-ring" proxies), get downweighted because they have significant variance in both bands, so they get only a fraction of a unit weight. In short, the Moberg et al standardization procedure overweights the low-res proxies by design. Indeed, my experiment demonstrates this. I use their scheme, standardizing all proxies by nominal sd first, then separately composite the high f and low f components, recombine, and then standardize by the target (NH) series (i.e., I apply same mean and decadal standard deviation to composite as in the target true model NH series). The attached comparison shows a comparison of actual model NH series (red), Mann and Jones (e.g. standard) compositing approach w/ the 12 pseudoproxies (black), and the Moberg et al scheme (blue). As discussed in our J. Climate letter, CPS will underestimate the low f variance at low SNR, and that's clear here (red curve lies a bit colder than black). But what really jumps out here is the spurious low f variability (in this case, anomalous multidecadal cooling periods) w/ the Moberg scheme. This is just one example. I need to try some more, but the answer that is emerging is that their scheme imposes spurious low-frequency variability. Will update you when I have more complete results. Let me know what you think... Thanks, mike At 10:07 AM 2/9/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: thanks for this . I have to say that I do not think the Moberg paper advances the Science much. Need to see supplementary information , but my initial thought is that there are real problems with their treatment of the "low frequency data" . We are weighed down with trying to put a large European proposal together , but Tim and I are toying wit the idea of writing a response. I find it a bit irritating that they couch their piece as a specific criticism of the M+J series and virtually ignore the other reconstructions , hence setting up a straw Mann (ha ha) . Problem is that thsi juxtaposition of boreholes ,Echo-G and their series will create a new "state of the art" of (apparently) mutually reinforcing evidence. At 12:49 09/02/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, Thanks for the clarification. I have seen the zero order draft and have looked over it, though not yet in full detail. On the whole appears quite fair, and balanced, and comprehensive. Very nice job! I still think the borehole discussion is a bit unbalanced. It sounds a lot like Henry Pollock to me. The Gonzalez-Rouco simulation is, as we know, somewhat questionable, and there is no discussion of the GISS simulation by Mann and Schmidt which suggests a likely low-frequency bias. So I'm likely to comment on this in my "official" remarks as a reviewer for the chapter (seems a bit odd that I'm both a contributor and reviewer, but as long as you all don't mind, I don't either). Other than that, I think my comments will probably be minor (you know how rare that is!). I see that the comments are due in early April, so I'll probably wait until it gets close so that I can provide an update on the status of in-review/in-press manuscripts. For example, I'm hoping to work w/ Phil on a sort-of response to Moberg et al, which should be quite clarifying (we can get the same result as them, basically, using the Mann and Jones series and a similar approach to what they did, but I think I can show that the approach does very poorly w/ pseudoproxies). By the way, the Mann et al J. Climate letter on the CCSM Pseudoproxy experiments in now provisionally accepted. Will keep you updated. Thanks again for keeping me updated, and congratulations on a wonderful job w/ the ZOD. Its an improvement on what we had in the TAR for sure, and I really like the fact that it gives justice to the large amount of work that has been done by the community since then... thanks again, mike (At 03:50 AM 2/9/2005, you wrote: Sorry !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You can see that I am in "headless chicken mode" - no idea how this message got reworked into my inbox! Have you seen the zero order draft ? Where are we with balancing views? Keith At 16:54 08/02/2005, you wrote: HI Keith, Thanks--this is a very old message. I think we provided this abstract many months ago already. SO, unless I misunderstand, nothing for us to do here, I think?? Mike At 11:33 AM 2/8/05, Keith Briffa wrote: Mike just seen this email - please forward their request again and I will look again cheers Keith At 22:43 12/11/2003, you wrote: Dear Keith, No doubt you got the reminder that the CLIVAR folks want a (400 word) abstract from us by Dec 15th for the June meeting. Did you want to take the first stab at this, then we can iterate back and forth a bit? let me know how you want to proceed w/ this... Thanks, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ _______________________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [7]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [8]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4784. 2005-02-09 13:28:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 9 Feb 2005 13:28:48 -0000 from: "Myles Allen" subject: FW: TOR temperature reconstruction to: "Martin Juckes" , "Gabi Hegerl" , , "Keith Briffa" Greetings, We appear to be it. The original TOR suggested 80keuro might be available, and it seems we can reasonably bid for a fair chunk (up to all if it's justifiable) of that money. This suggests we could include some personnel costs as well as travel. I've already talked this over with Martin: would Gabi or Tim be interested, either in the form of salary support via your institutions or as direct sub-contractors (I'm easy either way)? I assume, from Keith's e-mail, that Keith only wants travel support. Myles Climate Dynamics Group Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics, University of Oxford Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 Fax: 44-1865-272923 E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk -----Original Message----- From: Bertjan Heij [mailto:Bertjan.Heij@rivm.nl] Sent: 09 February 2005 11:09 To: Myles Allen Cc: Ottelien van Steenis Subject: RE: TOR temperature reconstruction Dear Myles, I have approached the KNMI in the Netherlands but they don't have time at the moment. I also talked to a couple of paleoclimate people (also in the NL) but they are not really interested because of the short and recent period that is covered by the hockeystick. So, my request to you is to submit a proposal, together with the colleagues you've mentioned. I'll send you the proposal format and cost tables shortly. The proposal will be on the agenda for the next meeting of the Steering Committee, on 15 March. Do you think you can manage to send me your proposal on Thursday 10 March at the latest? If you need more information: please let me know. We have a 'Reader' for this type of projects, but unfortunately it is in Dutch. I'll read through it again and provide a translation of the most important issues. best regards, BertJan. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP CC) P.O. Box 1 (pb 59) 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands tel.: 31 30 2743108 fax: 31 30 2744436 Hét platform voor klimaatkennis in Nederland: www.klimaatportaal.nl e-mail: bertjan.heij@rivm.nl -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |---------+----------------------------> | | "Myles Allen" | | | | | | | | | 08-02-05 18:33 | | | | |---------+----------------------------> >------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | To: "Bertjan Heij" | | cc: "Martin Juckes" , "Gabi Hegerl" , "Keith Briffa" , | | | | Subject: RE: TOR temperature reconstruction | >------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| Dear Bertjan, After some very quick and informal consultations, I can confirm that myself, Martin Juckes (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory), Gabriele Hegerl (Duke University), Keith Briffa (University of East Anglia) and Tim Osborn (UEA) would be interested in the possibility of tendering for this activity. Our areas of expertise are statistical analysis (Allen), optimal estimation (Juckes), climate change detection (Hegerl), interpretation of tree-ring data (Briffa) and pattern-based climate reconstructions (Osborn). What is the procedure now? Are you envisaging competing bids from teams of experts, or would you like us to join forces with other experts you have approached? Myles Climate Dynamics Group Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics, University of Oxford Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 Fax: 44-1865-272923 E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk -----Original Message----- From: Bertjan Heij [mailto:Bertjan.Heij@rivm.nl] Sent: 07 February 2005 13:45 To: Myles Allen Subject: RE: TOR temperature reconstruction Dear Dr. Allen, I am looking for the best experts to undertake the whole assessment. In general, we try to invite a team of experts to undertake this kind of assessments. How many people? That depends also on the subject and the available 'pool' of experts. There are already a couple of experts too closely involved, as a party in the public debate, so I've asked the KNMI for suggestions. If you are interested to submit a proposal and if you have suggestions who to invite to join in: you are welcome! Regards, BertJan Heij -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP CC) P.O. Box 1 (pb 59) 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands tel.: 31 30 2743108 fax: 31 30 2744436 Hét platform voor klimaatkennis in Nederland: www.klimaatportaal.nl e-mail: bertjan.heij@rivm.nl -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |---------+----------------------------> | | "Myles Allen" | | | | | | | | | 07-02-05 12:33 | | | | |---------+----------------------------> >------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | To: "Bertjan Heij" | | cc: | | Subject: RE: TOR temperature reconstruction | >------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| This is indeed an interesting problem. Can you clarify, please, whether you are seeking volunteers to participate in such an evaluation exercise, or seeking proposals to undertake the whole six-month study? Climate Dynamics Group Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics, University of Oxford Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 Fax: 44-1865-272923 E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk -----Original Message----- From: Bertjan Heij [mailto:Bertjan.Heij@rivm.nl] Sent: 07 February 2005 11:22 To: Myles Allen Subject: TOR temperature reconstruction Dear Dr. Allen, I've got your name from our Met Office staff (KNMI, the Netherlands). They suggested that you might be interested in carrying out an assessment on reconstruction of temperatures of the past 1000 years (the 'hockeystick'). Attached you find the context (the subprogramme WAB of the Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change) and the Terms of Reference for the project . Please let me know whether you are interested to submit a project proposal, based on the TOR. Sincerely, BertJan Heij (See attached file: 10-10 TORlaatsteversie-EN.doc)(See attached file: wab internettekst rapinfo-engels.doc) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP CC) P.O. Box 1 (pb 59) 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands tel.: 31 30 2743108 fax: 31 30 2744436 Hét platform voor klimaatkennis in Nederland: www.klimaatportaal.nl e-mail: bertjan.heij@rivm.nl -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________________________ "Dit bericht en eventuele aangehechte bestanden zijn vertrouwelijk en uitsluitend bestemd voor de geadresseerde. Ongeautoriseerde verstrekking of bekendmaking aan en gebruik door anderen zijn niet toegestaan. Als u dit bericht per vergissing hebt ontvangen wordt u verzocht dit onmiddellijk aan de afzender te melden en het bericht van uw systemen te verwijderen. De werkgever van de afzender kan niet garanderen dat de verzonden en/of ontvangen informatie juist is en aanvaardt geen aansprakelijkheid voor schade die eruit kan voortvloeien." "This message and any files transmitted with it may contain confidential information and is solely intended for the addressee(s). Any unauthorized disclosure or actions taken in reliance on it are forbidden. If you have received this message in error, please delete it and notify the sender. The employer of the sender does not guarantee that the information sent and/or received is correct and does not accept any liability for damages related thereto." 2617. 2005-02-09 14:20:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 9 Feb 2005 14:20:19 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Fwd: IPCC relevant paper to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi All - this paper in from Tom Delworth, who indicated that he'd be happy to see it go to the entire LA team. Please considerate as appropriate, and interact w/ Tom if needed. Thanks, Peck >X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >Date: Fri, 14 Jan 2005 13:15:00 -0500 >From: "Tom Delworth" >X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >To: jto@u.arizona.edu >Cc: tom.delworth@noaa.gov >Subject: IPCC relevant paper >X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu >X-Spam-Status: No, hits=x required=7 >X-Spam-Level: > >Hi Peck, > > I have attached a manuscript (submitted to J Clim) that I thought could >be of interest for your paleo chapter in the IPCC. In the study we >use the new GFDL coupled models to study the tropic-wide >climate response to a strong weakening of the THC. We find >a clear tropic-wide reorganization of precipitation and circulation, >which we believe is in excellent agreement with proxy indicators. >What appears to be crucial are air-sea interactions, particularly in the >tropical Pacific, which orchestrate the overall response. > > Any feedback or comments woul be most welcome. > > Hope all is well with you. > >Regards, >Tom Delworth > > > -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Zhang_Delworth.pdf" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1971. 2005-02-10 14:24:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 14:24:54 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: FW: TOR temperature reconstruction to: "Myles Allen" , "Martin Juckes" ,"Gabi Hegerl" , "Keith Briffa" At 13:28 09/02/2005, Myles Allen wrote: >We appear to be it. The original TOR suggested 80keuro might be >available, and it seems we can reasonably bid for a fair chunk (up to all >if it's justifiable) of that money. This suggests we could include some >personnel costs as well as travel. I've already talked this over with >Martin: would Gabi or Tim be interested, either in the form of salary >support via your institutions or as direct sub-contractors (I'm easy >either way)? I assume, from Keith's e-mail, that Keith only wants travel >support. Hi Myles I can't find a copy of the TOR or of Keith's reply, but want to re-iterate the basic tone of Keith's message which is that neither of us could contribute in the next, say, 3 months due to other commitments. But if the time scale extends considerably beyond that, then we can start talking! Some salary support in return for well-defined tasks might be possible - depending on the size and whether this was enough to pay a post doc for a few months, or are you just talking a few days "consultancy"? Alternatively, of course we could collaborate, though would you expect us to be sharing our already developed ideas and plans regarding the "hockey stick" issue, given that we plan to undertake some such work ourselves, as written into existing projects/proposals? Sorry if this sounds hard-nosed! I don't mean to be, but am just torn between (i) avoiding committing too much from ourselves, whether funded or not; (ii) maintaining a spirit of collaboration; and (iii) ensuring that we can continue to make our own unique/independent contribution to this issue. Ideally the time table would stretch to allow us to make a fuller contribution later in the year, but since it's probably very much a policy-driven problem, I guess the Dutch want the answer ASAP! Could you expand on what you would want from us? Anyway, thanks for inviting us and maybe we can work something out. Best wishes Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 2393. 2005-02-11 08:54:23 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 08:54:23 +0000 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: SCEPTICS to: Tim Osborn , "Folland, Chris" Chris, Sending again as Tim seems to have spelt UEA wrong in Keith's email address. Phil Chris, In addition to Tim's comments, here are a few of mine. 1. As you know IPCC is an Assessment, not a review. 2. The Huang et al paper in 1997 is quite different from later ones nearer 2000. I don't see how their method of curve development can generate a warmer MWP. 3. The 1998 Holocene paper didn't have the years beyond the early 1990s and then the number of proxies was reduced from a few to very few. 4. In the 2001 and earlier IPCC tomes you tended to show one series at high-freq with others at low-freq (decadal) at least for instrumental. I presume you were just doing this for the paleo series. 5. The 2001/2 Briffa et al paper came out after the TAR. This one had a series to 1400. The 2000 paper is based on 3 tree-ring series. 6 There are 2 ways of producing long paleo series. - one a la MBH taking all proxies and having an increasing number with time and even longer instrumental from the 18th century on. - pick a subset of proxies that mostly go back to 1000 or AD 1, then just average these. This is the approach we took in The Holocene in 1998. Also this is done in MJ2003, Crowley and most recently in Esper et al and Moberg et al. Apologies for brief comments but off again tomorrow for 8 days in Pune. Cheers Phil At 09:19 08/02/2005, Tim Osborn wrote: >Chris, > >I've attached electronic reprints of the two relevant papers. In both >cases the figures are rather low resolution. For the Briffa et al. paper >I've also included better resolution copies of the 3 colour plates as >separate files. > >At 21:43 07/02/2005, Folland, Chris wrote: >>The original Briffa graph (published in Quaternary Science Reviews in 2000) >>also reaches peak values in the 11th century, but this is not visible in the >>IPCC presentation since the first 400 years were left out (why?). > >Important point! The real reference for the Briffa curve shown in the >IPCC TAR is Briffa et al. (J. Geophys. Res., 2001 - the attached reprint) >and goes back only to 1400, as shown in the TAR. Although this paper was >published in January 2001, I think it was too late to put in the final >reference including page numbers. I don't know how it got attributed to >Briffa (Quaternary Science Reviews, 2000) because that shows a completely >different reconstruction which does go back to 1000, but which was based >on tree-ring width not tree-ring density and from only three sites in >northern Eurasia. > >If you also want a copy of the QSR 2000 paper, then you'll need to ask >Keith because I don't have an electronic copy. > >Best wishes > >Tim > > > > > > > > >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5024. 2005-02-11 09:56:30 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 09:56:30 +0000 from: "Folland, Chris" subject: FW: Hockey stick. to: "p.jones" , k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, OSBORN Phil, Tim and Keith Please see what I sent in reply to the unknown Sceptic via Antonio Regalado. . Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)<[2]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Folland, Chris Sent: 10 February 2005 21:19 To: 'Sir John Houghton'; Regalado, Antonio Subject: RE: Hockey stick. Dear John and Antonio Here is my reply to "Observations of a Sceptic" which also includes some observations on today's paper in Nature by Moberg et al. in the context of the Sceptic's concerns. I believe some technical details of this new paper might be contested by some paleoclimate experts. Its a cutting edge area of climate change science. I hope this helps. If you want any more help, please let me know. Best wishes Chris Professor Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [3]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072)<[4]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Also: Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Sir John Houghton [mailto:john.houghton@jri.org.uk] Sent: 04 February 2005 11:47 To: Regalado, Antonio Cc: Chris Folland Subject: Re: Hockey stick. Dear Antonio Regalado Thank you for your email. I am copying this to Chris Folland as he was a convening lead author of the chapter to which you refer and will be able to reply to the queries your skeptic has raised much better than I can. The only points I would make are (1) the discussions around the Mann and other diagrams were entirely scientific in nature; the Mann diagram was the one that was included in the Summary because we believed it to be the best data available at the time. I remember a significant entirely scientific debate regarding its quality at the time. There was no inappropriate bias or 'conspiracy' attached to its inclusion - indeed no such bias would have survived the thorough and open IPCC refereeing procedures. (2) whether or not the MWR was warmer than colder in global average terms than 1998 would make no difference to the IPCC's 2001 report's conclusions about the 20th century record and the contribution of greenhouse gases. With best regards John Houghton On 2 Feb 2005, at 19:39, Regalado, Antonio wrote: Dear Dr. Houghton, Thanks for speaking to me about climate change, skeptics and the IPCC from Exeter. Below appear some questions sent to me by a 'skeptic' (who shall remain anonymous) and who wonders why the Mann graph was presented so prominently in the summary for policy makers. He may be seeing a "conspiracy" where there is none, but I think the observations are interesting. It comes down to a matter of emphasis. Thanks, Antonio Regalado Staff Reporter, Health & Science The Wall Street Journal 200 Liberty Street New York, NY 10281 tel: 212-416-3011 mobile: 917-686-3389 OBSERVATIONS OF A SKEPTIC In Sir Houghton's book Global Warming: the Complete Briefing , published in 1994, he emphasizes (pp 51-52) the widespread evidence of a medieval warm period. This was also shown in the SAR. As of 1997, there were several studies offering hemispheric or global averages: -The borehole records of Huang, Pollack and Shen, published in GRL in 1997, showing a strong MWP much warmer than today -The graphs of Briffa and Jones that appear in Figure 2.21 -The Mann hockey stick with the peak in the late 20th century THe hockey stick is the only reconstruction shown in the Summary (why?) and is the sole basis for the claim that temperatures are the highest in 1000 years. On page 134 in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report the hockey stick is printed twice, in two half-page, full colour versions, one above the other. In Figure 2.20 it is graphed alone. In Figure 2.21 it is overlaid with one graph due to P. Jones and the other due to K. Briffa. The original Jones graph (published in The Holocene in 1998) does not look like a hockey stick, as the "warmest" years are AD1106, AD1074, and AD1103, and the warmest decade is the 1930s. This is not visible in the IPCC version because the line is so heavily smoothed (why?-- the Hockey stick is shown unsmoothed in Fig 2.20). The original Briffa graph (published in Quaternary Science Reviews in 2000) also reaches peak values in the 11th century, but this is not visible in the IPCC presentation since the first 400 years were left out (why?). Two graphs of data based on borehole temperature measurements by Huang et al don't look like the hockey stick either, but one is banished to a small chart on an earlier page (p. 132) and the other is mentioned in the text but is not reproduced at all. Why? Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\REPLIES TO OBSERVATIONS OF A SCEPTIC.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Re Hockey stick..htm" 1397. 2005-02-11 10:43:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 10:43:46 +0000 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,k.briffa@uea.ac.uk X-Sender: mem6u@holocene.evsc.virginia.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.1.1 Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 18:35:02 -0500 To: Caspar Ammann , "Eugene R" , Scott Rutherford , Phil Jones From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-UEA-MailScanner-SpamScore: s Dear Caspar, Gene, Scott, Phil, I am attaching a response I've drafted to the Moberg et al paper (attached for those of you who haven't seen it). The message is pretty clear and simple--their method overemphasizes the low-frequency variability. To demonstrate this, I've made use of stuff from Mann and Jones, and from the Mann/Rutherford/Wahl/Ammann J. Climate letter on Pseudoproxies. So I would welcome any of you to be co-authors on this--just let me now if you're interested. I've been in touch w/ Keith (he and Tim are potentially working on their own independent response--waiting to hear further). This is a very rough draft, so comments much appreciated. Looking forward to hearing back, Mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\MobergComment.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Figure110.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Figure36.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\MobergetalNature05.pdf" 1287. 2005-02-11 12:20:44 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 12:20:44 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: to: Phil Jones , Caspar Ammann , "Eugene R" , Scott Rutherford thanks Phil, Will definitely pass your regards on to Steve. Funny thing, I'm sitting right behind the person who manages NCAR's main website. We were just talking about their new news page, and the fact that they published the entire transcript on Kevin vs. Landsea, etc. Most people think the Landsea thing was carefully planned. pretty sad... will be in touch again soon, mike At 12:03 PM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Keith and Tim are here next week, but very busy with a proposal to the EU. So you may have to hassle them a bit, or hang on for a week or two. Nature dragged in the IPCC angle which annoyed me. I tried to explain to him how IPCC works. IPCC won't be discussing this in Beijing in May - except as part of Chapter 6. Hans von Storch will likely regret some of the words he's said. FYI, just as NCAR have put up a web site to give the whole story re Chris Landseas's 'resignation' from a CA in the atmos. obs. chapter (to help Kevin Trenberth out), KNMI are doing the same re Rob van Dorland and that Dutch magazine. The chief scientist at KNMI has got involved as Rob didn't say the things attributed to him. I'll find out more on this in Pune as a guy from KNMI will be there. Several other CAs on our chapter pulled out, or just didn't do anything. Their stories never got run. Dick's report was good and my bit in Nature cam across well. Say hi to all there and wish Steve well. Cheers Phil At 16:19 11/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Phil--thanks, that's great. Really happy to hear that everyone is on board with this. I'm at a symposium honoring Steve Schneider out at stanford right now. Lots of folks here--as I talk this over w/ them, and see Dick Kerr's coverage of this, etc. I realize its not so bad--I was afraid this would be spun as bolstering the contrarians, but it hasn't. In large part due to quotes from you and others pointing out that the study actually reinforces the key conclusions, etc., and the fact Dick Kerr showed Keith and Tim's plot showing the scattering of multiple reconstructions, etc. which takes the focus off "Mann" a bit... Nonetheless, I *am* convinced their methodology is suspect, as the analysis I sent shows. So I will really appreciate input from Keith, Tim, and you to make sure the language and wording are appropriate and fair... I will revise as I get input from various people, with an aim to having this submission-ready in about 10 days (so you can have one final look after you return, and before you have to head out again). looking forward to getting people's comments, feedback, etc. thanks again, mike At 08:05 AM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike et al, I've talked to Keith and Tim here and it seems best if we all come in with you on this response. What you have done is basically fine. We can discuss specific wording later. My problem is that I'm off tomorrow to Pune till Feb 20 and email may be sporadic or non-existent. So can you discuss revised drafts with Keith and Tim, but keep me on - lower down as I'm away. I'm here on Feb 21 then off to Chicago to review the vertical temperature report for the NRC/NAS Feb 22-25. Keep me on the emails in case email works well in Pune. Cheers Phil At 23:35 10/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Dear Caspar, Gene, Scott, Phil, I am attaching a response I've drafted to the Moberg et al paper (attached for those of you who haven't seen it). The message is pretty clear and simple--their method overemphasizes the low-frequency variability. To demonstrate this, I've made use of stuff from Mann and Jones, and from the Mann/Rutherford/Wahl/Ammann J. Climate letter on Pseudoproxies. So I would welcome any of you to be co-authors on this--just let me now if you're interested. I've been in touch w/ Keith (he and Tim are potentially working on their own independent response--waiting to hear further). This is a very rough draft, so comments much appreciated. Looking forward to hearing back, Mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 3742. 2005-02-11 15:51:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Feb 11 15:51:37 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: NRC Temp Trends -- CCSP executive summary to: "Sinha, Parikhit" Ricky, The answer is No. As you might guess, I get no money from NOAA. I am on one of their panels (CCDD run by Tom Karl) that meets every year, but we just discuss research directions. Cheers Phil At 15:06 11/02/2005, you wrote: Thanks Phil. The conflict of interest question relates to the following: whether you have any funding from or appointments with the study sponsor (NOAA) that would be adversely or positively affected by conclusions from the NRC review. I'm guessing your answer is no, but let me know about this. I'll also let you know what transpires during the conference call. See you in Chicago. Thanks. Ricky ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Friday, February 11, 2005 3:46 AM To: Sinha, Parikhit Subject: Re: NRC Temp Trends -- CCSP executive summary Dear Ricky, The parcel has arrived and I also have the Executive Summary, so I'm all set for my trip tomorrow and have lots to read. Send me a summary of any relevant points from your conference call on Feb 15. I don't think I have any conflicts. I know ben Santer and Tom Wigley very well and most of the other authors as well. Peter Thorne was my PhD student - completed about 3 years ago. See you on Feb 22 or 23. I will check my email on Feb 20/21 and maybe in India. Cheers Phil At 18:43 08/02/2005, you wrote: Dear all, Please find attached the executive summary, preface, and glossary for the CCSP report on Temperature Trends that you will be reviewing. We recently received these items from the sponsor. Please include them in your briefing book. We would like all of you to bring written comments on the executive summary to the upcoming meeting in Chicago. We will send you the last remaining report item, Appendix A, once we receive it from the sponsor. Thanks. Ricky <> <> <> ******************************************************** Parikhit Sinha, Ph.D. Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Academies/National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20001 Phone: (202) 334-1946 Fax: (202) 334-3825 email: psinha@nas.edu web: [2]www.nationalacademies.org/basc ******************************************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1667. 2005-02-12 13:11:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: Julie.Jones@gkss.de, Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de, fidelgr@fis.ucm.es, Tim_Osborn@gkss.de, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Sat, 12 Feb 2005 13:11:06 +0100 from: Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de subject: Re: fwrd to: "David M. Ritson" Dear David, we just had a good meeting in Reading, and it seems hat we really need more work to understand all this. For the time being, a major point seems to be the usage of the low-frequency data during the training period - which is to first order a trend and has thus only one dgf. If we believe that the NH-trend is properly decribed by the proxy trend in the 20th century, then everythin g is fine; If we, however, are concerned that the trend the proxy data of the 20th century are compromised - e.g. by the fertilisation effect in tree ring data - then we have a problem. In Moberg's recent reconstruction in nature, this point is made very explicit - as he openly relies on the assumption that is normized history may be scaled by the variance of the 20th century. Your comment about the politication I found most interesting - we just had an article in the German weekly SPIEGEL about that - see attached. Have you seen Marcel Crok's analysis of the McIntire & Mann conflict? - also attached. All the best Hans Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502 GEESTHACHT, Germany ph: +49 4152 87 1831, fx: +49 4152 87 2832 mobile: + 49 171 212 2046 http://w3g.gkss.de/staff/storch; storch@gkss.de "David M. Ritson" 11.02.2005 22:26 To Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de cc Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de, Julie.Jones@gkss.de, fidelgr@fis.ucm.es, simon.tett@metoffice.com Subject Re: fwrd ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2005 13:18:55 -0800 (PST) From: David M. Ritson To: Tim Osborn Cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Subject: Re: Your Science perspective letter. Dera Tim and Keith, I appreciated your candid reply. My context is a belief that the climate field is losing and has lost a great deal of credibility over the years as to whether it is serious science. Practically any of my colleagues in the physics department would say that things are so politicized that they wouldn't know what to believe, but that, at some point, if you keep adding greenhouse gasl s you are going to have a problem. The handling of millenium temperature records certainly lends support to this cynicism. In the MBH instance virtually all the simple internal consistency checks. one should expect to find, are missing. For example in the last days I pulled the North American tree files of seventy proxies, added white noise to all the records, and reanalysed, to check I wasn't overlooking something obvious. Of course, well within errors, relative shapes are unaffected, whereas the absolute normalisation goes as 1/(1+m)**.5. I failed to find a coherent description in the literature as to where and how MBH calibrated their data on an absolute scale. Maybe they finally regressed their results relative to the observational data? In that case yours and Von Storch et al work would be misleading. I had expected that you and/or Von Storch et al, could provide the answer to this most basic question, and e-mailed both of you, however to no avail (not that you both didn't try.). Tests based on a SINGLE proxy are not directly responsive to MBH. SVD analysis of a single proxy provides only one non-zero eigenvector, and it is identical to the original parent single proxy data. A 1/(1+m)**.5 PC1 scale error trivially, and identically, results from this. The above is not to say that thre isn't a lot of good work, Crowley, Esper etc. I give M&M lots of credit for stirring things up but poor marks for their basic understanding and objectivity on many of the issues, and the same goes for MBH. What is so damaging about the current debate as to whether current temperatures exceed anything in the past millenium is the poverty of the work and, by inference, the refereeing of it. Final scientific answers seem out of current reach. Politically it should suffice to say that the last twenty/fifty years have seen a greater NH temperature change that in any comparable period over the last millenium. This appears well within our scientific reach. Sincerely, David On Mon, 7 Feb 2005, Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear David, > > thank you for your interesting e-mail about MBH98, von Storch et al., and > our perspective on it. With up-coming deadlines and meetings I don't have > time for a full response unfortunately, but here are a few thoughts about > the applicability of our perspective... > > You are indeed correct that the specific example we gave was on the effects > of noise on a single proxy record. Space constraints prevented us from > giving additional and more applicable examples, which would have been > developed from the example we gave. Plus, our appreciation of the problem > was only beginning to develop at that stage - and indeed our thoughts and > ideas about the nature of the problem and how we might solve it are not yet > settled. Nevertheless, I think that our example can equally be applied to > the case where the combination (by whatever method) of many records into a > single time series is used as a "proxy" for the true NH temperature. The > "proxy" will depend upon the NH temperature plus the "noise" that arises > from the fact that the individual records are relatively sparse and do not > therefore sample the full NH. Like the noise in individual records, this > "noise" due to representing the true NH by an incomplete sample will likely > have a "whiter" spectrum than the spectrum of the real temperature, due to > the timescale-dependent spatial correlation structure of temperatures > variations (meaning fewer degrees of freedom at longer time scales). > > Sorry for the brief reply, but hope it is of some interest. > > Best regards > > Tim > > > > At 19:47 03/02/2005, David M. Ritson wrote: > >Dear Tim Osborn and Keith Briffa, > > > >I read with interest (and some puzzlement) your perspective on > >"The Real Color .." relative to the work of Storch et al. > >If one was dealing with the effects of noise on a single proxy record > >your `perspective would make perfect sense. However the MBH98 results > >derive from an analysis of large families of proxies, as of course you are > >well aware. For instance the ITRB North American set of proxy records > >exceeds a > >number N in excess of seventy. Whatever the method of analysis, SVD or > >simple averaging, the extracted signal is independent of N whereas > >the noise contamination decreases as 1/N**.5. With seventy or so proxies, > >and I > >have veriified this with the ITRB series, low fequency noise distortion > >effects become small. > >The problems, (if there are problems), appear to lie elsewhere, for instance: > > > >1) MBH normalize, ?calibrate, each proxy record with its detrended variance. > >Absent proxy-specific noise (disease, incect infestations etc) > >this would be problem free. However in the presence of proxy specific > >noise the variance is inflated by the canonical factor > >(1+m)**.5 where m is the ratio of proxy noise to the temperature noise, > >and hence their temperature scaling factors will be very significantly > >modified by the presence of such noies. > >MBH do not appear to make any mention of this? It is however calculable > >intrinsically from the data. Maybe MBH98, as a last > >anlysis step, scaled their results into agreement with the observed > >temperature anomaly record? If they failed to do this, analysis of > >their Northern tree data, shows that their temperature anomalies would be > >underestimated by a factor around 2.5. > > > >2) For w5atever reason the ITRB proxy family shows qualitatively vey large > >differences in sensitivities and noise contamination. This of courses > >makes weighting and selection of data highly subjective? This, not > >short-segment standardization (a red-herring), lies at the heart of the M&M > >debate where M&M want to eliminate whole classes of tree-proxies. > > > > > >3). MBH98 assume that `growth', X_i, is linearly related to real temperature > >anomalies for each proxy i via sensitivity factors K_i > > > > X_i=K_i*T + e > >where T is the temperature anomaly at time t and e is random noise. > >or > > X_i=K_i*f(t)+e where T=f(t) > > > > > >of course if (as seems likely) the sensitivity factor > >varies over centuries so that in terms of a slowly varying function F > > > > K_i=K0_i*(1+F(t)) > >or > > X_i=K0_i*(1+F(t)*f(t) +e > >This could equally as well be interpreted as > > X_i=K0_i*F'(T)+e > >where > > F'(t)=f(t)*(1+F(t) > > > >Without careful independent considerations, the presence or absence of low > >frequency temperature components is degenerate with growth sensitivity and, on > >multi-century scales, is indeterminate? > > > >I would certainly appreciate any clarifications you may have for the above. > >Frankly I am apalled by an apparent poverty of mechanisms in the climate field > >to resolve such problems, or alternatively to classify them as irresolvable? > > > >Sincerely > > > >Dave Ritson > >================================================================================ > >David Ritson, Emeritus Prof of Physics > >Physics Dept > >Varian Physics Buiding > >382 Via Pueblo Mall > >Stanford University > >Stanford, CA 94305-4060, USA > > > >e-mail: ritson@slac.stanford.edu > >Telephone number: 650/723-2685 > >FAX Number: 650/725/6544 > >================================================================================ > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\crok1.0501.e.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Spiegel1.0501.e.doc" 2676. 2005-02-14 11:28:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , Caspar Ammann date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 11:28:11 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: WSJ to: Tom Wigley Hi Tom, Thanks--we've done all of this. We've shown on RealClimate (and in press J. Climate paper by Rutherford et al) that the result is completely robust with respect to whether or not PCA is used at all to represent the tree-ring networks. So its a spurious issue, claim. I mentioned this in an email exchange w/ Gabi and others. This was copied to Francis, so I'm very surprised to see him quoted in this way. Ammann and Wahl will be independently responding to MM in the near future (in "Climatic Change" it appear), and their code will be online. We and others of course have done Monte Carlo on RE, there is somethin very wrong in their estimation of the significance levels. Hard to know just what they did--it obviously didn't get a real review. travelling for a couple days. That's all I can say for now. mike p.s. attached Sci. Am article (just appeared on the newstands) much better than the WSJ... At 10:58 AM 2/14/2005, Tom Wigley wrote: Mike, I'm sorry we had no time to talk at Stanford. Here is the answer to the LIA bounce back idea ... For 20th century warming to be a bounce back, the heat must come from somewhere. The only source consistent with the bounce back idea is the ocean. The Levitus data show that heat has been going INTO the ocean, not coming out of it. This is really obvious, but I have never seem it stated anywhere. ---------- Re WSJ. They say ... "Statistician Francis Zwiers of Environment Canada, a government agency, says he now agrees that Dr. Mann's statistical method "preferentially produces hockey sticks when there are none in the data." Dr. Mann, while agreeing that his mathematical method tends to find hockey-stick shapes, says this doesn't mean its results in this case are wrong. Indeed, Dr. Mann says he can create the same shape from the climate data using completely different math techniques." ----------------- It is a bit worrying that Francis agrees with M&M -- but it seems that you do too. My questions are: (1) Do other reconstructions (not including Lonnie Thompson's of course) suffer from this standardization problem? (2) You have stated that simply averaging the data together gives the same result. Has this elementary method been published? (2a) I note that the PC1 amplitude time series invariably correlates highly with the (non-areally-weighted) 'area average'. So this brings up the issue of whether you use some area weighting in your PCA -- as we invariably do when doing PCA of gridded data? (3) From what I can see without reading their full GRL paper, M&M think that the RE statistic has an odd sampling distribution. It is easy to show this by Monte Carlo simulation -- have you done this (i.e., in the abstract, as a statistical exercise, not for the specific case of MBH98, etc.)? Tom. ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SciAmProfileMar05.pdf" 603. 2005-02-14 16:46:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tim Osborn , k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, masson@dsm-mail.saclay.cea.fr, hutterli@climate.unibe.ch, wanner@giub.unibe.ch, juerg@giub.unibe.ch, karin@natgeo.su.se, eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, ddj@gfy.ku.dk, sigfus@gfy.ku.dk, guiot@cerege.fr, esper@wsl.ch, frank@wsl.ch, eavaganov@forest.akadem.ru, antti.ojala@gsf.fi, r.battarbee@geog.ucl.ac.uk, j.holmes@ucl.ac.uk, brazdil@sci.muni.cz, jerome@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr, barbante@unive.it, shishov@forest.akadem.ru date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 16:46:25 +0100 from: Hubertus Fischer subject: Re: IMPRINT task 1.1 coming together to: petit Hi everybody, Not knowing whether this discussion is still acute I strongly support Jean-Robert's arguments. While the concentration of dust is coupled to source and transport variations, the dust size is essentially only to the latter and promises unrivaled information on long-range transport conditions. This parameter should be extensively used in the coming years as outlined in Barbara Delmonte's and Urs Ruth's work. Cheers Hubertus ----- Original Message ----- From: petit Date: Monday, February 14, 2005 2:47 pm Subject: Re: IMPRINT task 1.1 coming together > Dear Tim, > > In response to your comment nb 2 and 8 from document Task 1 > section B4 and > B8 to remove the dust studies from task 1.1 to reduce budget, I > would like > advocate for having dust project studies as part of IMPRINT. > > Recent works on dust studies from Antarctic ice cores have changed > our view > on the climate variability over the east Antarctic plateau, but > unfortunately yet not widely known. > Variability in dust size parameters during Holocene(signal/noise > ratio) is > indeed well higher and significant than other climate proxies > (e.g. stable > isotope, ...). Moreover the dust size differs from the total dust > concentration and is almost only dependant on the atmospheric > circulation > modes (Delmonte et al., 2002, 2004, and in press ). > During the last deglaciation and the Holocene period, it was shown > the size > distribution changes have been associated to the (pseudo > oscillating) > shifts of the polar vortex over East Antarctica between Dome > region and > Vostok region (Delmonte et al., 2004, and in press ). Moreover, > during > Holocene (up to 3000 BP ) significant secular to sub millennial > and secular > periodicities are present in the dust records with a dominant 200 > year > (solar?) period which is common to all records (Delmonte et al, in > press, > attached). > > Note also that such spectrum of climate sub millennial and secular > variability in Antarctica (prior 3000 BP) seems consistent with > NH variability of the last 2000 years as recently presented by > Mobek et > al, Nature, feb 10, 2005, . > GCM have been indeed used to assess the observed recent climatic > change > over Antarctica (warming Peninsula and cooling East Antarctica and > the > shift in the polar vortex) and associated due to the recent ozone > depletion > (e.g. papers from Solomon and Thompson ? in Science). > > The proposed task aims to document the 0-2000 BP period in > Antarctica from > existing ice cores and pits, with the ambition to compare with the > natural > forcings from solar variability (10Be) and volcanic input.Our task > is also > to generate dust data from pits and shallow cores covering the > instrumental period. > > Dust size studies are currently developed at Laboratory of > Glaciology > (LGGE) with collaboration with University Bicocca, Milano for > coulter > counter measurements and also University of Berne and AWI > Bremerhaven > are using laser system for flow-line analysis > > I strongly advocate for having this project part of IMPRINT which > appear > relevant to tasks1.1 task 1.2, and task 1.5. > Without this support our European community will not be able to > continue > this original and promising research. > > Sincerely yours > > Jean Robert Petit > > > > -------------------------------------------------- > Jean Robert PETIT > > LGGE-CNRS BP 96 > F-38402 St Martin d'Heres Cedex > Tel: +33 (0)4 76 82 42 44 > Fax: +33 (0)4 76 82 42 01 > > petit@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr > > http://www-lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr > -------------------------------------------------- > 2080. 2005-02-15 17:32:14 ______________________________________________________ cc: petit , jerome@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr, barbante@unive.it, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, masson@dsm-mail.saclay.cea.fr, hutterli@climate.unibe.ch, hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 17:32:14 +0100 from: Valerie Masson-Delmotte subject: Re: IMPRINT task 1.1 coming together to: Tim Osborn Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by cirse.extra.cea.fr id j1FGUx5f004355 Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear Jean, Carlo and Jerome, > > ok, so there is a strong scientific case for the dust size studies > with Antarctic ice cores. I note that the papers mentioned focus on > pre-10k BP and pre-2k BP periods so far - presumably you suggest to > now analyse data for the last 2000 years too? (Otherwise it isn't > relevant for task 1.1). > > If we keep it in task 1.1, is there any overlap between LGGE and UMB > (Milan) that could result in reduced budget requests? And is the > high-resolution stratigraphy task listed under UMB necessary to get > the dating of these dust size records? Or is that independent work > that could be dropped? Finally, is Talos Dome simply another name for > Taylor Dome (sorry for my ignorance!). > > Best wishes > > Tim > > At 13:47 14/02/2005, petit wrote: > >> Dear Tim, >> >> In response to your comment nb 2 and 8 from document Task 1 section >> B4 and B8 to remove the dust studies from task 1.1 to reduce budget, >> I would like advocate for having dust project studies as part of >> IMPRINT. >> >> Recent works on dust studies from Antarctic ice cores have changed >> our view on the climate variability over the east Antarctic plateau, >> but unfortunately yet not widely known. >> Variability in dust size parameters during Holocene(signal/noise >> ratio) is indeed well higher and significant than other climate >> proxies (e.g. stable isotope, ...). Moreover the dust size differs >> from the total dust concentration and is almost only dependant on the >> atmospheric circulation modes (Delmonte et al., 2002, 2004, and in >> press ). >> During the last deglaciation and the Holocene period, it was shown >> the size distribution changes have been associated to the (pseudo >> oscillating) shifts of the polar vortex over East Antarctica between >> Dome region and Vostok region (Delmonte et al., 2004, and in press ). >> Moreover, during Holocene (up to 3000 BP ) significant secular to sub >> millennial and secular periodicities are present in the dust records >> with a dominant 200 year (solar?) period which is common to all >> records (Delmonte et al, in press, attached). >> >> Note also that such spectrum of climate sub millennial and secular >> variability in Antarctica (prior 3000 BP) seems consistent with NH >> variability of the last 2000 years as recently presented by Mobek et >> al, Nature, feb 10, 2005, . >> GCM have been indeed used to assess the observed recent climatic >> change over Antarctica (warming Peninsula and cooling East Antarctica >> and the shift in the polar vortex) and associated due to the recent >> ozone depletion (e.g. papers from Solomon and Thompson … in Science). >> >> The proposed task aims to document the 0-2000 BP period in Antarctica >> from existing ice cores and pits, with the ambition to compare with >> the natural forcings from solar variability (10Be) and volcanic >> input.Our task is also to generate dust data from pits and shallow >> cores covering the instrumental period. >> >> Dust size studies are currently developed at Laboratory of Glaciology >> (LGGE) with collaboration with University Bicocca, Milano for coulter >> counter measurements and also University of Berne and AWI Bremerhaven >> are using laser system for flow-line analysis >> >> I strongly advocate for having this project part of IMPRINT which >> appear relevant to tasks1.1 task 1.2, and task 1.5. >> Without this support our European community will not be able to >> continue this original and promising research. >> >> Sincerely yours >> >> Jean Robert Petit >> >> >> >> -------------------------------------------------- >> Jean Robert PETIT >> >> LGGE-CNRS BP 96 >> F-38402 St Martin d'Heres Cedex >> Tel: +33 (0)4 76 82 42 44 >> Fax: +33 (0)4 76 82 42 01 >> >> petit@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr >> >> http://www-lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr >> -------------------------------------------------- >> >> > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Dear Jean Robert, Carlo, Jerome, Are you really sure that the dust variability goes into 1.1 and should not it go into 1.2 because of the resolution of the records (decadal variability at best)? I think that the data are really important in terms of changes in vortex and response to forcings such as irradiance at the centennial time scale. Valerie. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\masson34.vcf" 4816. 2005-02-15 18:09:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 18:09:25 +0100 from: Valerie Masson-Delmotte subject: B4 read to: Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn Dear Keith and Tim, I have been through B4 text which I think needs to be partly rewritten - to make the state of the art more explicit (where will this be together with key references?) and avoid repetitions - to make more explicit the links between the different subtasks. I would suggest in page 1 (introduction) to include : - place the well described climate variability of the last millenium into a broader perspective of decadal to millenial scale variability. - temporal resolution, calibration, quantitative reconstructions have to be also highlighted. I would suggest to state that : in the last decade, intensive efforts have been conducted in different communities to provide decadal to millenial scale reconstructions of past climate change. This project wants to build bridges over these various communities dedicated to specific archives (marine, terrestrial, ice core work) in order to evaluate clearly the spectral part of climate variability that each proxy record captures. - I think that the introduction and objectives have to pose scientific questions and must not only focus on methods (which looks a bit boring). So we should clearly say that in order to improve the current understanding of climate change, we need to understand how climate variability changes together with mean climate. Until now, efforts to disentangle these two factors have failed because of the different "sampling" of climate variaibility in different proxies. The Holocene perspective offers the possibility by combining different types of proxy records to evaluate how the mean state and the variability (including the seasonal cycle, temperature and precipitation effects) vary in response to a variety of climate forcings (orbital forcing with both precession and obliquity components driving both changes in seasonal and latitudinal gradients of incoming solar radiation; irradiance with a key necessity to better quantify it; and intervals of more or less frequent volcanic activity). - it should be made clear that the focus will be on describing past temperature AND precipitation variability all way through in a way to assess not only the realism of the simulated temperature but also the mechanisms involved in climate feedbacks (water cycle). - forcings. Do we have to say anything about land use changes? (you have the Ruddimann hypothesis for the Holocene; and also changes known to be very significant during the last centuries). It is not very explicit in the WP1 but I am sure that modellers such as Fortunat Joos or Victor Brovkin will play with this factor. - all way through : we have to be very consistent about places of interest. You can see from B4 draft places of interest ranging from Europe and Africa, surrounding oceans, poles, Antarctica, Greenland, North American droughts and various ocean basins. I think that it would be much better to pose the questions in terms of forcings and responses together with modes of variability rather than in geographical structure. Then you have the orbital forcing and you need to have latitudinal gradients to look at the climate response because the forcing includes lat and seasonal gradients. It should be made clear that it not understood what may organise (and cause?) millenial scale variability throughout the Holocene and that the collection of data should enable to evaluate the local vs global character of this variability (is it common in proxies of ocean circulation and terrestrial records, and common between the different latitudes). The north American droughts arrive here a bit strangely, why not first ask about variability of temperature (seasonal, annual) and precipitation (incl droughts), and put the reconstructions in Europe and Africa in a broader context of hydrological cycle variability incl north America? For task 1.1, I would suggest to classify the likey results (I would prefer to call it deliverables) by temporal scale covered starting by documentary evidence, European scale, and then broader scale including the poles. It should be made clear that an improved knowledge about polar variability is also an outcome of 1.5 with a better reconstruction of forcings together with common time scales for the 2 poles. - reference to links outside IMPRINT: we should ask clearly all partners to list their national and EC projects (including ESF Euroclimate projects now accepted) - in several tasks it is mentioned "selected regions". It should be made clear what are the selected regions and what the criteria are. - task 1.3 is a bit too explicit about Jan and Jul temperature (winter/summer could be enough, because of previous calibration works on biomes with coldest month, warmest months or other bioclimatic variables) - I like task 1.4 the way it is formulated now, maybe too much detail in the likely results - forcings : I do not understand what is meant by "to make predictions about the future". Predictions of future forcings? Predictions of possible variability due to natural causes in the future that may offset greenhouse increase? Sentence about orbital parameters to be rewritten to : The orbital forcing is the only forcing which can be precisely calculated both for the past and the future... What is " a range of physically plausible" models? (I would say : a hierarchy of climate models see WP4). Do you think that we should include a schematic diagram about sites, or about the combination of different archives with different time resultions in the different tasks? Valerie. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\masson35.vcf" 2152. 2005-02-15 23:01:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Tue, 15 Feb 2005 23:01:55 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Fwd: reprints to: Eystein Jansen E - thought you might find these interesting. The Ruthet al is the latest from the Mann et al gang, and Brian L's work is interesting given the comparison w/ glacier movement data. Best keep the unpublished stuff among our team. I'll cc to Keith, although I bet he's seen all of this. thx, Peck >X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >Date: Mon, 14 Feb 2005 14:52:39 -0700 >From: Malcolm Hughes >X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >To: jto@u.arizona.edu >Cc: mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu >Subject: reprints >X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu >X-Spam-Status: No, hits=x required=7 >X-Spam-Level: > >Peck - the Rutherford et al in press paper I mentioned Friday may be >reached at http://www.realclimate.org/RuthetalJClim2004.pdf. The >components of the Luckman and Wilson in press Climate Dynamics paper >are in the attached files - these may differ very slightly from the >published version as Brian sent me them before acceptance by the >journal, Cheers, Malcolm > > > > -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Luckman_and_Wilson_-_text1.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Luckman_and_Wilson_-_Tables.pdf" 5126. 2005-02-16 12:24:41 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Tim Osborn" , Phil Jones , mann@virginia.edu date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 12:24:41 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re:Moberg Critique to: Keith Briffa Thanks Keith, Sounds good--interestingly, I sat next to Donald Kennedy (cheif editor at Science) on the way back from this symposium honoring Steve Schneider. He was at the symposium too, it turns out, and he saw my talk. I didn't recognize him at first. But he was going through Nature, marking with a "?" certain pages. As I'm watching him, he puts a questionmark above the Nature news story on the Moberg paper. I ask him about it, he introduces himself. He mentions he's checking out "the competition". I introduce myself, but I guess he already had recognized me. Anyway, we start talking about this. I tell him Dick Kerr's story on this was much better. We had a great several hour conversation--he's really a great guy (a close friend of Steve's, it turns out). One of the things I showed him (in confidence) were the results of our own analysis that showed the Moberg method probably overestimates the variability. He found it very persuasive, and said he really hopes Nature publishes it. So the long and short of it is that if Nature doesn't want to go with this, I bet we can get Don Kennedy to consider running this in Science. What do you guys think? mike At 11:55 AM 2/16/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: Mike just a quick note to provide evidence of life here! We are having trouble here with work loads - teaching, marking, proposal writing, and overdue annual report (they are threatening to withold funding on our current EC grant!) will get to you soon re this version - Certainly do not imagine having to say anything too significant . It is vital that this letter is sent soon . I would expect Nature to prevaricate , but I really hope we can convince them to publish this. Keith At 22:44 12/02/2005, you wrote: sorry. text revised yet again. no more changes until I receive comments from everyone. thanks... mike At 12:03 PM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Keith and Tim are here next week, but very busy with a proposal to the EU. So you may have to hassle them a bit, or hang on for a week or two. Nature dragged in the IPCC angle which annoyed me. I tried to explain to him how IPCC works. IPCC won't be discussing this in Beijing in May - except as part of Chapter 6. Hans von Storch will likely regret some of the words he's said. FYI, just as NCAR have put up a web site to give the whole story re Chris Landseas's 'resignation' from a CA in the atmos. obs. chapter (to help Kevin Trenberth out), KNMI are doing the same re Rob van Dorland and that Dutch magazine. The chief scientist at KNMI has got involved as Rob didn't say the things attributed to him. I'll find out more on this in Pune as a guy from KNMI will be there. Several other CAs on our chapter pulled out, or just didn't do anything. Their stories never got run. Dick's report was good and my bit in Nature cam across well. Say hi to all there and wish Steve well. Cheers Phil At 16:19 11/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Phil--thanks, that's great. Really happy to hear that everyone is on board with this. I'm at a symposium honoring Steve Schneider out at stanford right now. Lots of folks here--as I talk this over w/ them, and see Dick Kerr's coverage of this, etc. I realize its not so bad--I was afraid this would be spun as bolstering the contrarians, but it hasn't. In large part due to quotes from you and others pointing out that the study actually reinforces the key conclusions, etc., and the fact Dick Kerr showed Keith and Tim's plot showing the scattering of multiple reconstructions, etc. which takes the focus off "Mann" a bit... Nonetheless, I *am* convinced their methodology is suspect, as the analysis I sent shows. So I will really appreciate input from Keith, Tim, and you to make sure the language and wording are appropriate and fair... I will revise as I get input from various people, with an aim to having this submission-ready in about 10 days (so you can have one final look after you return, and before you have to head out again). looking forward to getting people's comments, feedback, etc. thanks again, mike At 08:05 AM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike et al, I've talked to Keith and Tim here and it seems best if we all come in with you on this response. What you have done is basically fine. We can discuss specific wording later. My problem is that I'm off tomorrow to Pune till Feb 20 and email may be sporadic or non-existent. So can you discuss revised drafts with Keith and Tim, but keep me on - lower down as I'm away. I'm here on Feb 21 then off to Chicago to review the vertical temperature report for the NRC/NAS Feb 22-25. Keep me on the emails in case email works well in Pune. Cheers Phil At 23:35 10/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Dear Caspar, Gene, Scott, Phil, I am attaching a response I've drafted to the Moberg et al paper (attached for those of you who haven't seen it). The message is pretty clear and simple--their method overemphasizes the low-frequency variability. To demonstrate this, I've made use of stuff from Mann and Jones, and from the Mann/Rutherford/Wahl/Ammann J. Climate letter on Pseudoproxies. So I would welcome any of you to be co-authors on this--just let me now if you're interested. I've been in touch w/ Keith (he and Tim are potentially working on their own independent response--waiting to hear further). This is a very rough draft, so comments much appreciated. Looking forward to hearing back, Mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 3240. 2005-02-16 16:41:23 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,Phil Jones date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 16:41:23 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Moberg et al. to: "Michael E. Mann" Hi Mike, as Phil says, Keith and I have a busy week hence replies will be brief and slow. In confidence, I can tell you that I reviewed a very similar paper by the same authors that was submitted to Science last year, and recommended rejection just a few months prior to their submission to Nature. I'm telling you this because you might find my review interesting, in that it makes some of the same points that you also draw out (note that this review was of a slightly different version of the paper, so please don't assume that all these comments still apply to the published Moberg et al., though I think the main one still does). Anyway, my review (in confidence) is attached. I found it rather annoying that they didn't appear to address my main concern, just submitted a slightly modified version to another journal! Since I agree with the main point that you make (which matches the concerns expressed in my review) I'm happy to be a co-author on the correspondence to Nature. I'll try to provide any comments as soon as I can, but am examining a PhD on Friday in Reading (and am still reading the thesis!), and then going to Michigan and Hawaii later next week - hence real busy. Anyway, will reply as soon as possible. Cheers Tim At 22:44 12/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: >sorry. text revised yet again. no more changes until I receive comments >from everyone. > >thanks... > >mike > >At 12:03 PM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: > >> Mike, >> Keith and Tim are here next week, but very busy with a proposal to >> the EU. >> So you may have to hassle them a bit, or hang on for a week or two. >> Nature dragged in the IPCC angle which annoyed me. I tried to explain to >> him how IPCC works. IPCC won't be discussing this in Beijing in May - >> except >> as part of Chapter 6. Hans von Storch will likely regret some of the >> words he's said. >> FYI, just as NCAR have put up a web site to give the whole story re >> Chris Landseas's >> 'resignation' from a CA in the atmos. obs. chapter (to help Kevin >> Trenberth out), KNMI >> are doing the same re Rob van Dorland and that Dutch magazine. The >> chief scientist >> at KNMI has got involved as Rob didn't say the things attributed to >> him. I'll find >> out more on this in Pune as a guy from KNMI will be there. >> >> Several other CAs on our chapter pulled out, or just didn't do >> anything. Their stories >> never got run. >> >> Dick's report was good and my bit in Nature cam across well. >> >> Say hi to all there and wish Steve well. >> >> Cheers >> Phil >> >> >>At 16:19 11/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: >>>Phil--thanks, that's great. Really happy to hear that everyone is on >>>board with this. >>> >>>I'm at a symposium honoring Steve Schneider out at stanford right now. >>>Lots of folks here--as I talk this over w/ them, and see Dick Kerr's >>>coverage of this, etc. I realize its not so bad--I was afraid this would >>>be spun as bolstering the contrarians, but it hasn't. In large part due >>>to quotes from you and others pointing out that the study actually >>>reinforces the key conclusions, etc., and the fact Dick Kerr showed >>>Keith and Tim's plot showing the scattering of multiple reconstructions, >>>etc. which takes the focus off "Mann" a bit... >>> >>>Nonetheless, I *am* convinced their methodology is suspect, as the >>>analysis I sent shows. So I will really appreciate input from Keith, >>>Tim, and you to make sure the language and wording are appropriate and fair... >>> >>>I will revise as I get input from various people, with an aim to having >>>this submission-ready in about 10 days (so you can have one final look >>>after you return, and before you have to head out again). >>> >>>looking forward to getting people's comments, feedback, etc. >>> >>>thanks again, >>> >>>mike >>> >>>At 08:05 AM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: >>> >>>> Mike et al, >>>> I've talked to Keith and Tim here and it seems best if we all come >>>> in with you on >>>> this response. What you have done is basically fine. We can discuss >>>> specific wording >>>> later. >>>> My problem is that I'm off tomorrow to Pune till Feb 20 and email >>>> may be >>>> sporadic or non-existent. So can you discuss revised drafts with >>>> Keith and Tim, >>>> but keep me on - lower down as I'm away. I'm here on Feb 21 then off >>>> to Chicago >>>> to review the vertical temperature report for the NRC/NAS Feb 22-25. >>>> Keep me on the emails in case email works well in Pune. >>>> >>>> Cheers >>>> Phil >>>> >>>> >>>>At 23:35 10/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: >>>>>Dear Caspar, Gene, Scott, Phil, >>>>> >>>>>I am attaching a response I've drafted to the Moberg et al paper >>>>>(attached for those of you who haven't seen it). The message is >>>>>pretty clear and simple--their method overemphasizes the low-frequency >>>>>variability. To demonstrate this, I've made use of stuff from Mann and >>>>>Jones, and from the Mann/Rutherford/Wahl/Ammann J. Climate letter on >>>>>Pseudoproxies. So I would welcome any of you to be co-authors on >>>>>this--just let me now if you're interested. I've been in touch w/ >>>>>Keith (he and Tim are potentially working on their own independent >>>>>response--waiting to hear further). >>>>> >>>>>This is a very rough draft, so comments much appreciated. >>>>> >>>>>Looking forward to hearing back, >>>>> >>>>>Mike >>>>> >>>>>______________________________________________________________ >>>>> Professor Michael E. Mann >>>>> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall >>>>> University of Virginia >>>>> Charlottesville, VA 22903 >>>>>_______________________________________________________________________ >>>>>e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 >>>>> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml >>>>Prof. Phil Jones >>>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>>>University of East Anglia >>>>Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>>>NR4 7TJ >>>>UK >>>>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> >>> >>>______________________________________________________________ >>> Professor Michael E. Mann >>> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall >>> University of Virginia >>> Charlottesville, VA 22903 >>>_______________________________________________________________________ >>>e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 >>> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml >> >>Prof. Phil Jones >>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>NR4 7TJ >>UK >>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> > >______________________________________________________________ > Professor Michael E. Mann > Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall > University of Virginia > Charlottesville, VA 22903 >_______________________________________________________________________ >e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 > http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Review of Moberg 2004 science1.doc" Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 2492. 2005-02-16 17:56:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 17:56:01 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Fwd: RE: WSJ article to: Gavin Schmidt , Stephen H Schneider , Tom Wigley , Ben Santer , mann@virginia.edu, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, omichael@Princeton.edu, jmahlman@ucar.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk Interesting that Antonio R. doesn't (or at least claims not to) recognize a lack of balance in the article. Please treat this email as confidential. I don't believe that sending a letter to the editor myself would be the best avenue. But perhaps someone else is interested in pursuing this? Mike Subject: RE: WSJ article Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 17:43:10 -0500 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: WSJ article Thread-Index: AcUUaIg6ON4Ck5ANQ2OfoGmU0QNsvAAAEqMA From: "Regalado, Antonio" To: "Michael E. Mann" X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Feb 2005 22:43:10.0610 (UTC) FILETIME=[E423A720:01C51478] X-UVA-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at fork11.mail.virginia.edu Hi Mike, On the personal stuff, Id go with your first impressions, rather than the perceptions of others. This isnt a one-sided story. Anyway, I certainly want to find out who is right here and so I am open to writing more as the papers come out and the facts become clearer, just as I have written in the past about the Soon and Balliunias business (p. A3not bad) and about paleo-climate (p. 1 story in 2002 about Gary Comers funding, feature story on Lonnie Thompsons melting glaciers), etc. Would it surprise you to hear that anytime I write a story which seems to favor global warming I am also deluged by accusations of bias and demands for corrections etc.? Regarding Moberg, I think the issue you are raising is a question of emphasis and not a matter for a correction. The specific sentences youre thinking of (Indeed, new research from Stockholm University on historical temperatures suggests past fluctuations were nearly twice as great as the hockey stick shows. That could mean the 20th-century jump isn't quite so anomalous. ) seem to me be not only factual but precisely to the point of what the mainstream of science is discussing vis a vis MBH, which was the topic of that part of my story. For instance, in the Anderson/Woodhouse commentary that accompanied Moberg in the same issue of Nature, they too stress the increased variability just as I did and they make no mention of the late 1990s. And as per my email Monday, my article does also say that other reconstructions also indicate that the 20^th Century was unusually warm and that the punch line is the same. Im sure youre fully sick of writing letters, but this may be right opportunity for a letter to the editor from you or someone who you can second. The person to send a letter to is [1]Karen.Pensiero@wsj.com. If you want, CC: me and my editor, [2]Elyse.tanouye@wsj.com. Or even an editorial on the broader topic of where the science is at. I can give you the name for who to send an editorial to if you want it. It is probably worth pointing out that no amount of debate can change the facts buried in those tree rings, etc.. Yes, I will continue to write about climate. The next topic is impacts. What do you think is the best story there? Id like to write about current impacts rather than only projected ones as these will be more tangible for the reader. Also, since the Arctic has been well covered Id be interested in impacts at lower latitudes. Antonio ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 1629. 2005-02-16 22:17:22 ______________________________________________________ cc: Valérie Masson-Delmotte , Keith Briffa date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 22:17:22 +0100 from: Juerg Beer subject: Re: budgets IMPRINT to: Hubertus Fischer Dear Valerie, Keith and Hubertus, I agree with Hubertus that it will be quite impossible for us to deal with the cutting problem because you have to look at the proposal as a whole and to define core issues which are absolutely essential compared to other things which are nice to have. What I can say with regard to solar forcing based on 10Be we can live with the data we already have and the ones we are producing right now. Additional data would be nice but are not fundamental. The main task will be to figure out how to extract the forcing function which is not at all trivial. My plan is to find a brilliant postdoc to basically this job. If things are getting really tough I would be willing to cut this postdoc down from 3 to 2 years provided I would be allowed to pay let say ¤ 20'000 to a retired scientist with unconventional ideas who would be extremely useful to help working out the kind of model we are looking for. Please have a look at my revised EAWAG budget which comes down from ¤ 231000 to ¤ 177500. What do you thin about this? Best wishes, Juerg >Dear Val, Keith and Juerg > >First of all, did I get you right (last >paragraph of your email) that you want the task >leaders to boil down the budget. I would hate to >do that. Not only because I don't like to argue >about money with everybody but most of all, >because a lot of the personal requested (and the >money for it) is shared in different tasks and >WPs. So if we change something in one task >without considering the others we will make work >impossible for some groups. E.g. in the case of >AWI I asked for one PhD and one PostDoc for >three years. While I can handle to reduce the >total sum by taking out the PhD or shortening >the PostDoc time I cannot do that in task 1.5. >only. So it would be much more convenient if the >coordinator together with the WP leaders (who >have the overview about the total budget) would >allocate a maximum sum for each group (based on >the comments provided by the task leaders) and >then each group has to recalculate their budget >to fit that number and change the task >contributions a! > ccordingly. >Below a few more comments on where to cut: > >> Hubertus and Jurg >> and Valerie (sorry tried ringing without luck ) >> thank you for these fair and constructive remarks . We are having >> real >> trouble with budgets and the problems seem basically irresolvable. >> >> You are the arbiters of 1.5 , and I think it is a vitally >> important >> section of this project. Ultimately I make suggestions but that is >> all I do >> .I simply ask that you go forward as follows >> >> 1 remove the biomass burning work > >yes > >> 2 remove the Talos Dome work > >I guess we have to do that in task 1.5 but probably not in 1.1 > >> 3 reconsider the AWI PhD - but only if you are convinced the >> other groups >> really do have facility to do the work - the last 2000 years is an >> absolute >> must here. > >I will squeeze some money out of the AWI budget, >one way or the other, but there is also >potential at other groups. E.g. if the Swiss use >their CFA system for NGRIP the Copenhagen people >need only personell and very little equipment > >> 4 I am not able to judge , but there seems to be a good deal of >> Be data >> out there or being worked on already. Jurg I fully appreciate the >> need to >> compile various records and address the problem of local >> concentration >> influence (precipitation variability) but we need you to ensure >> this is >> efficiently covered only to the extent it needs to be in IMPRINT. > >Juerg please respond > >> 5 Hubertus , I take you message that the dust work is important >> and will >> say no more about dropping it. > >Yes, I think that is true and the dust size >comes with the CFA analyses on NGRIP >automatically. However, it needs someone to >evaluate the data. > >Any comments on the sulfur isotopes from anybody? > >> Valerie please intercede as you see fit also - ice is certainly > > not my thing >> Hubertus and Jurg I would then be grateful if you discuss,decide, >> explain >> to colleagues, amend and resend budgets - wait til the version of >> B4 comes >> again before reworking task descriptions though >> >> thanks >> >> Keith -- Juerg Beer phone: +41-44-823-5111 EAWAG fax: +41-44-823-5210 Ueberlandstrasse 133 e-mail: beer@eawag.ch Postfach 611 http://www.eawag.ch CH-8600 Duebendorf http://www.eawag.ch/research/surf/forschung/d_tracer.html Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\IMPRINTbudgetEAWAG2.xls" 3450. 2005-02-16 23:45:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Tim Osborn" , "Valerie Masson-Delmotte" , "Manuel Hutterli" , , John Birks , juerg.beer@eawag.ch, hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de, Karin Holmgren , oyvind.paasche@geo.uib.no date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 23:45:55 +0100 from: Eystein Jansen subject: RE: IMPRINT WP1 Task 1.1 latest budget and "workplan" to: Keith Briffa , "Lotter, prof. dr. A.F." , "Ian Snowball" , "Antti Ojala" Hi, as Keith apparently forecasted what I will say, here goes: Going above 3.7mill, I do not have the full overview of the total flexibility i.e. whether there will be flexibility. Yet we can always inflate budgets now, and go above 3.7, but I do not see now where we can cut. Increasing the overall budget is just fooling ourselves as we are quite sure we will be cut if we pass the funding decision. So increasing the budget is just a way of moving problems in front of us. If you think it needs to be larger, we can do this within a few 100k Euros, that´s not a big deal, but we will have to cute down at some point in the future anyway. I do hope, though, that some of the originally planned work will happen in WP6 i.e. some of the syntheses. I think we must be very specific as to what WP1 will do: Improve and extend the best available time series, provide data syntheses, focus only on data that gives quantitative reconstructions of climate physics parameters. I would be hoping that what we get is a much more comprehensive data base than was used in the recent Moberg et al. paper, with decadal resolution and regional spatial coverage. Thus some of the proxies and archivesmay have to be be ditched, and we should stay with only the best and most relevant material. In this respect I agree with Valerie that we need to closely consider the data sets of relevance for modelling. I think some times we might think too much in terms of needing to have specific loclities or archives on board, whereas it is the wuality of the climate reconstruction (quantifieable with decadal resolution) that needs focus. Probably not too much help in this. The bottom line: Lets not argue ove ra few kEuros, add this to 1.2 if needed. Then we can take the discussion later. Look closely at what everybody proopses to do in 1.2. Is all results going to me model relevant? Cheers, Eystein At 12:30 +0000 16-02-05, Keith Briffa wrote: >I do realise the problem with scale and budget >of work in 1.2 Andy , I thought all along that >this area was likely to need more than >proportional support. The real problem is that , >as I also expected, all tasks are way over >budget. I do not believe Valerie or I will >advocate a random cut to specific areas. We are >asking Eystein about the possibility of moving >above the 3.7 million. I feel the Holocene >section is proportionally under funded in the >light of earlier discussions on the importance >of this . The trouble is I know what he will say. > >At 12:02 16/02/2005, Lotter, prof. dr. A.F. wrote: >>Dear Keith and other involved task leaders, >> >>I agree that it makes sense to include the >>Scandinavian varves into task 1.2 as there are >>other varved series from central Europe that >>qualify for this task (e.g. Poland, Germany). I >>don't think sections B4 and B8 need a specific >>adaptation as it is all in there already >>(nevertheless, I shall have another look at it >>and will let you know if I feel that specific >>modifications are needed). >> >>However, I start getting a bit worried that >>everything that needs to get out (for >>scientific or budget reasons?) of whatever task >>in WP 1 ends up in task 1.2. You are well aware >>of the fact that task 1.2 will have to deal >>with the following continental and marine >>proxies: >>- freshwater climate proxies (chironomids, >>Cladocera, diatoms, ostracods, stable oxygen >>isotopes, lake level data) >>- varves >>- marine climate proxies (foraminifera, >>coccoliths, alkenone-derived temperatures >>TEX86, UK37, IRD, etc) >>- ice core data from Greenland and Antarctica >>(stable isotopes, CO2, ions, dust, etc.) >> >> >>To get an idea of what it exactly signifies to >>take on the Scandinavian varves into task 1.2 I >>need from the task leaders the deliverables as >>well as the budgets of the two partners. >> >>As you know the Task 1.2 budget is now >>already > 1 M*; any suggestions which parts we >>can pass on to other task leaders to get the >>budget back to a reasonable figure? >> >>Looking forward to hearing from you. >> >>Cheers, >> >>Andy >> >> >> >>******************************************************************* >>Prof. Dr. Andre F. Lotter >> >>Dept. of Palaeoecology >>Utrecht University >>Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology >>Budapestlaan 4 >>NL-3584 CD Utrecht - The Netherlands >> >>Tel. direct +31 30 2532653 >>Tel. secretary +31 30 2532629 >>Fax +31 30 2535096 >>e-mail a.f.lotter@bio.uu.nl >>WWW http://www.bio.uu.nl/~palaeo/Engels/engels.html >> >>******************************************************************* >> >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Keith Briffa [mailto:k.briffa@uea.ac.uk] >>Sent: Mittwoch, 16. Februar 2005 10:57 >>To: Ian Snowball; Antti Ojala >>Cc: Tim Osborn; Valerie Masson-Delmotte; Manuel >>Hutterli; Lotter, prof. dr. A.F.; >>carin.andersson@geo.uib.no >>Subject: Re: IMPRINT WP1 Task 1.1 latest budget and "workplan" >> >>Andy and Carin >> >>will you review the messages below. I would like you to include the varve >>work (and Ian and Anttti) completely into task 2 . At this stage we have to >>make these decisions on a practical level , and I am convinced of the case >>to keep the work centralised in task 2 , even though there are overlaps >>with task 1. I realise this requires a reworking of budget . I am happy for >>edited text on The B4 and b8 (not yet complete) sections. >> >> >>At 08:38 16/02/2005, Ian Snowball wrote: >>>Hello All, >>> >>>I agree completely with Antti. It is now up the the WP task leaders to >>>agree which WP task GTK AND LU should be attached to. Do not split us, it >>>would not make any sense to a referee. I would advise 1.2, but of course >>>the more recent data data will contribute to 1.1. >>> >>> >From a scientific point of view, the Finnish varves will provide a more >>> pristine natural signal over the last 500 years than the Swedish sites >>> that are being studied just now. Between 10,000 and 500 cal BP, the sites >>> can be considered pristine (apart from atmospheric pollution from central >>> Europe). >>> >>>Ian. >>> >>>Ian Snowball (Docent/Associate Professor) >>>GeoBiosphere Science Centre >>>Department of Geology - Quaternary Sciences >>>Lund University >>>Sölvegatan 12 >>>SE-223 62 Lund >>>Sweden >>>Tel. +46 (0) 46 222 3952 >>>Fax. +46 (0) 46 222 4830 >>>Mob. +46 (0) 70 676 3915Return-path: >>>Received: from argus3.net.lu.se (argus3.net.lu.se [130.235.132.83]) >>> by cassandra.net.lu.se >>> (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.2 HotFix 1.14 (built Mar 18 2003)) >>> with ESMTP id <0IBZ000WETBBWG@cassandra.net.lu.se> for >>> geol-isn@ims-ms-daemon; >>> Wed, 16 Feb 2005 08:11:36 +0100 (MET) >>>Received: from kusti.gsf.fi (muuri.gsf.fi [193.167.179.2]) >>> by argus3.net.lu.se (8.13.0/8.13.0) with ESMTP id >>> j1G7B4Tc022388 for >>> ; Wed, 16 Feb 2005 08:11:04 +0100 (CET) >>>Received: from OTATW24210741.gsf.fi (otadhcpa75.gsf.fi [172.16.0.75]) >>> by kusti.gsf.fi (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id JAA01944; Wed, >>> 16 Feb 2005 09:10:35 +0200 >>>Date: Wed, 16 Feb 2005 09:10:03 +0200 >>>From: Antti Ojala >>>Subject: Re: IMPRINT WP1 Task 1.1 latest budget and "workplan" >>>In-reply-to: <12c2d4612c5f0d.12c5f0d12c2d46@net.lu.se> >>>X-Sender: aojala@popper.gtk.fi >>>To: Ian Snowball , Tim Osborn >>>Cc: Keith Briffa , >>> Valerie Masson-Delmotte , >>> Manuel Hutterli >>>Message-id: <6.1.2.0.0.20050216085419.029b4ad0@popper.gtk.fi> >>>MIME-version: 1.0 >>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.2.0 >>>Content-type: text/html; charsetiso-8859-1= >>>X-Spam-Flag: NO >>>X-MailScanner: Found to be clean >>>X-LDC-MailScanner-VirusCheck: Found to be clean >> >X-LDC-MailScanner-SpamCheck: not spam, >>SpamAssassin (score0.101, required 5, >>> HTML_MESSAGE 0.00, MIME_HTML_ONLY 0.10) >>>X-MailScanner-From: antti.ojala@gsf.fi >>>References: <12c2d4612c5f0d.12c5f0d12c2d46@net.lu.se> >>>Original-recipient: rfc822;geol-isn@cassandra.net.lu.se >>> >>>Hi all, >>>I agree with Ian. >>>This is why I suggested that GTK's work (as well as work by Swedish varve >>>group) should be at least divided between WP1 tasks 1.1. and 1.2., and >>>even included entirely into task 1.2. if one choice should be made. >>> >>>What comes to Swedish and Finnish varve people working closely together >>>and having the same aims (as we are doing in our nationally funded project >>>all the time), is defenately one of our strengths. We can then better >>>exclude local disturbances and peculiarities from our records and have >>>best possible results in terms of regional climate fluctuations. >>>So in IMPRINT we should have the same aims and goals too. >>> >>>antti. >>> >>>At 18:05 15.2.2005, Ian Snowball wrote: >>>Hello all, >>> >>>We'd better answer the following questions before IMPRINT WP1 gets out of >>>control. What is the role of Swedish and Finnish varved lake sediments in >>>WP1? We don't have quantified palaeoclimate data at annual resolution (who >>>does?) I believe that we can prepare qualified decadal to century-scale >>>records of winter precipitation(summer conditions for the last 8000-10000 >>>years, so I thought that fitted WP1 task 1.2 better. The raw data sets >>>either exist, or they will be produced over the next 2-3 years as part of >>>other Nationally funded projects. >>> >>>What do you think Antti? We should be doing coherent work. The varves do >>>not stop at 2000 years and the dating error (%) is certainly no worse over >>>the last 8000 years. The last 2000 years will contain human impact for at >>>least the last 200-300 years in Sweden. You should reply to all. >>> >>>Ian Snowball (Docent/Associate Professor) >>>GeoBiosphere Science Centre >>>Department of Geology - Quaternary Sciences >>>Lund University >>>Sölvegatan 12 >>>SE-223 62 Lund >>>Sweden >>>Tel. +46 (0) 46 222 3952 >>>Fax. +46 (0) 46 222 4830 >>>Mob. +46 (0) 70 676 3915 >>> >>>----- Original Message ----- >>>From: Tim Osborn >>>Date: Tuesday, February 15, 2005 3:38 pm >>>Subject: Re: IMPRINT WP1 Task 1.1 latest budget and "workplan" >>> >>> > At 07:36 10/02/2005, you wrote: >>> > >Hi Tim, >>> > > >>> > >I am not involved in task 1.1, which is correct as far as I'm aware. >>> > > >>> > >Ian. >>> > > >>> > >Ian Snowball (Docent/Associate Professor) >>> > >>> > Dear Ian - quick question: which task are you in then? Antti >>> > Ojala is >>> > (currently) listed in task 1.1 - does this seem odd to split the >>> > varved >>> > lake work between 1.1 and 1.X? Cheers, Tim >>> > >>> > >>> > Dr Timothy J Osborn >>> > Climatic Research Unit >>> > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >>> > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >>> > >>> > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>> > phone: +44 1603 592089 >>> > fax: +44 1603 507784 >>> > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >>> > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm >>> > >>> > >>> >>>************************************************** >>>Dr. Antti Ojala >>>Senior Scientist >>>Geological Survey of Finland >>>P.O. Box 96 >>>FIN-02150, Espoo >>>Finland >>>tel: +358-(0)20-550 2566 >>>mobile: +358-(0)40-8489796 >>>*************************************************** >> >>-- >>Professor Keith Briffa, >>Climatic Research Unit >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ----------------------- The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students More info at: www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3639. 2005-02-21 09:02:29 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 21 09:02:29 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Special Issue of Climatic Change/CLIWOC to: Katarina Kivel Katerina, Attached are the 4 pdfs you need for Figs 4-7. I will be able to afford the colour charges for Figures 1 and 2 provided they can be put onto 4 pages (2 for each figure). They are laid out this way in the file I sent you. I can sort this out with Kluwer later. In CRU today, but away the rest of the week. Cheers Phil At 18:47 14/02/2005, you wrote: Phil, Thank you for the revised paper, responses, and figures. We can handle the PDF files, but not the PS files (it was a mistake on my part when I said earlier that we could). Springer is likely able to handle PS files, but if it isn't too much trouble, we would like to receive them from you in PDF (after you return) so that we have a readable file. In the meantime, I will let you know if Steve has any further comments after he has looked over the paper. Regards, Katarina P.S. The symposium in honor of Steve went very well, indeed. Everyone enjoyed it very much -- Terry and her organizers did a terrific job. We missed your not being there! At 01:13 AM 2/11/2005, you wrote: Katerina, Here is the first of a number of emails about the Jones/Salmon paper for the Special Issue. This one contains the paper and the responses. Subsequent files will have the figures in. I'm only in today, so if there are any issues then I won't be able to respond again until Feb 21 or more likely March 1. I'll send an email at the end to say I've sent all. I hope Steve's 60th went will or is going well ! Cheers Phil At 17:57 04/02/2005, you wrote: Phil, You can send post script files to this email address (not to Steve's address) -- perhaps one figure per message. If we have problems downloading, we will let you know. Regards, Katarina At 05:54 AM 2/4/2005, you wrote: Katerina, I've had a brief chance to look at the 3 reviews. I should be able to incorporate the comments into a revised draft whilst I'm away. Are figures as postscript files adequate for Climatic Change? Some of these are large. They are emailable, so do you want them? Or is there an ftp site to send them too. Steve said he would look through the response (in the covering letter). Should I send him everything and cc you? Cheers Phil Katerina, Received all the reviews. I'm on travel for the next three weeks, but I should be able to get a revised manuscript back to you by the middle of March, maybe earlier. Cheers Phil At 20:02 03/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, Attached is Steve Schneider's cover letter and the three reviews of your manucript "Preliminary reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation index from wind strength measures taken during the CLIWOC period." Please acknowledge receipt of this message. Thank you, Katarina Katarina Kivel Assistant Editor, CLIMATIC CHANGE Department of Biological Sciences Stanford University Stanford, California 94305-5020 TEL 650-725-6508 FAX 650-725-4387 EMAIL kivel@stanford.edu Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Katarina Kivel Assistant Editor, CLIMATIC CHANGE Department of Biological Sciences Stanford University Stanford, California 94305-5020 TEL 650-725-6508 FAX 650-725-4387 EMAIL kivel@stanford.edu Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Katarina Kivel Assistant Editor, CLIMATIC CHANGE Department of Biological Sciences Stanford University Stanford, California 94305-5020 TEL 650-725-6508 FAX 650-725-4387 EMAIL kivel@stanford.edu Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3066. 2005-02-21 09:32:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 21 09:32:13 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Zero order draft to: "Parker, David (Met Office)" David, Thanks ! They are calling some people at specific times related to their chapter. Looking at the schedule and knowing which ones you've been involved with it isn't worth worrying about. Ch 3 starts at 1.30pm central and Ch 6 isn't till much later, so late evening UK on 23rd. You are probably better off out of it. Cheers Phil At 09:05 21/02/2005, you wrote: Phil I'm not due to be in the Chicago meeting but will be in my office in Exeter during normal hours Mon 21st - Thurs 24th, away Friday. I haven't booked a phone link: when that option arose, Peter hadn't had his accident; but I have found phone links to be ineffective except for very short periods. Videoconferencing can be better. Regards David On Mon, 2005-02-21 at 08:04, Phil Jones wrote: > Peter, > Sorry to here of your problems. Thanks for the comments on the ZOD > and the additional aspects in your email. Let me know any more of the > BAMS letter if you get them. We'll be looking at all the comments from > middle of April onwards. The next AR4 meeting is around May 10. > Some of the reason why some bits you wrote (and also Adrian > Simmons - had a long set of comments from him also) are not there > or have been reduced significantly, is that we've been told to concentrate > on what we do know or not know but not to say what we should be > doing. We'll be questioning this in Beijing. Problems with ERA-40 and > NCEP-NCAR are therefore very brief and also in many other areas. We're > not supposed to endorse the GCOS Imp. Plan for example. Roger Pielke > won't be pleased with this. Ch 6 of the CCSP doc does this and more. > Found this a little too hopeful, saying we can't say anything unless we > have pictures, complete histories etc. etc. Optimistic in the extreme, > although all necessary it could be said in a much better way. > > Well, hope you're back on your feet soon and I'll see you when you > hobble up here for a supervisory meeting in March. > > Cheers > Phil > > PS David - will you be in Chicago? What time do you get in tomorrow? > > > At 00:25 20/02/2005, Peter Thorne wrote: > >Phil (cc: David), > > > >I'm afraid I won't make Chicago ... will probably be under surgeons knife. > >Have taken today to try to write up some more lucid notes on the zero > >order draft that are attached and are what I would have discussed with you > >at Chicago. I leave it up to you how far these notes are forwarded on. > > > >I have to say that I still back my initial reaction despite that being > >seen as a "diatribe". I included the salient emails as an appendix as > >there's some additional material in them that might help. At this stage > >I'm pretty sure we can reconcile these things relatively simply. However, > >I certainly would be unhappy to be associated with it if the current text > >remains through final draft - I'm absolutely positive it won't. > > > >As an aside for your eyes only (so please don't forward this part on to > >anyone) there may well be a very large signatory letter to BAMS from > >operational satellite guys that Fu et al. is wrong which is one reason why > >I want to avoid the impression given in zero order draft - it may make us > >all painted into a difficult corner. More will be obvious after TOVS > >workshop in May / June but things may move dramatically one way or the > >other so just a heads up. > > > >I note that my box on the lapse rates was completely and utterly ignored > >which may explain to some extent my reaction, but I also think the science > >is being manipulated to put a political spin on it which for all our sakes > >might not be too clever in the long run. > > > >I hope Chicago ends up being okay. By the end of it hopefully we'll be in > >a position to make sure the first draft is good. I should still be able to > >make a March supervisory meeting albeit as the crutched wonder and we can > >discuss further then. > > > >Cheers > > > >Peter > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- David E Parker A2_W052 Met Office FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK email: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1299. 2005-02-21 12:15:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 21 12:15:39 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: WMO non respondo to: "Hans Teunissen" Hans, This guy pesters me from time to time. I've given him your name at WMO/GCOS as someone who'll reply. We can discuss the merits of my stance in April ! He wants to find fault with some of our station data and by default that the world isn't warming. If you can just tell him some wmo email addresses that might respond. Why I'm helping him with emails is beyond me ! He wants to discredit what I've done. Why the gridded data isn't good enough is beyond me. Cheers Phil To: wshughes@iinet.net.au From: Phil Jones Subject: Re: WMO non respondo Warwick, Hans Teunisson will reply. He'll tell you which other people should reply. Hans is "Hans Teunissen" . I should warn you that some data we have we are not supposed top pass on to others. We can pass on the gridded data - which we do. Even if WMO agrees, I will still not pass on the data. We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it. There is IPR to consider. You can get similar data from GHCN at NCDC. Australia isn't restricted there. Several European countries are. Basically because, for example, France doesn't want the French picking up data on France from Asheville. Meteo France wants to supply data to the French on France. Same story in most of the others. Cheers Phil At 17:42 17/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, Greetings from sunny Perth. Re the issue of the non-availability of your station by station global data. I have this month emailed the WMO a couple of times with the text below this email, no response so far. I have used the following two email addresses from the "ADMINISTRATIVE DIRECTORY Offices and Departments:" on the WMO web site. First the Office of the Secretary-General(SG) sg_o@wmo.int and looking down their long list of Departments I selected World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme Division (WCD) with email address wcdmp@wmo.int . I wondered if you had any suggestion for a WMO email address that might respond ? Best wishes, Warwick Hughes >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Dear Chief Executive Officer, World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme Division (WCD), Last July I emailed Prof Phil Jones; Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK asking him for his "...station by station temperature data, updated through 2001 referred to on your CRU web page; [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/#datdow as "Over land regions of the world over 3000 monthly station temperature time series are used." Professor Jones replied to say that he had been asked to stop releasing those data. In view of the desirability that the free flow of scientific data be maintained, I feel sure this is a misunderstanding and I look forward to you letting Prof Jones know that the WMO has no objection to him quickly passing on to me these global station by station temperature data updated as recent as possible. I have been researching and publishing on climate science since the early 1990's, see list below. Refereed Published Papers: 1992 Robert C. Balling, Jr., Sherwood B. Idso, and Warwick S. Hughes. "Long-Term and Recent Anomalous Temperature Changes in Australia." Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, No. 23, pp. 2317-2320. 1995 Robert C. Balling, Jr. and Warwick S. Hughes. "Comments on "Detecting Climate Change Concurrent with Deforestation in the Amazon Basin: Which Way Has It Gone ?" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 76, No. 4, 9. 559. 1995 Warwick S. Hughes. Comment on D.E. Parker, "Effects of Changing Exposure of Thermometers at Land Stations." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 15, pp. 231-234. 1996 Warwick S. Hughes and Robert C. Balling, Jr. "Urban Influences on South African Temperature Trends." International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 16, No. 8, pp. 935-940. Online at [2]http://www.john-daly.com/s-africa.htm 1997 Warwick S. Hughes. Comment on, "Historical Thermometer Exposures in Australia." by N. Nichols et al. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 17, pp. 197-199. I look forward to your assistance. Yours faithfully, Warwick S. Hughes Perth Australia 61895930975 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4246. 2005-02-21 12:30:52 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 21 12:30:52 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: proposition of text - not sure if is enough convincing! to: Valerie.Masson@cea.fr Ok Valerie, if you say 1.3 milllion for 1.1 send this out . please put task 1.1 at At 11:53 21/02/2005, you wrote: Proposition of email to task leaders AND SSC . To be also distributed to all participants to WP1 (Keith, we urgently have to do this because WP1 seems very obscure to them). Here is the current situation for WP1. We have been working on a "bottom up" process asking to the various partners their deliverables together with requested costs, with task leaders being responsible for priorities within their tasks. The current status of budget requests is the following per task 1.5 1.14 M euros (reconstruction of forcings) 1.4 0.958 M euros (reconstruction of hydrological variability) 1.3 0.885 M Euros (centennial to millenial scale var) 1.2 1.095 M Euros (decadal to centennial var) 1.1 (last 2 millenia) Many partners have already warned that their participation in IMPRINT would be endangered if they had to reduce their EC request, because they would not be able to provide the deliverables without a minimum funding! The situation is extremely difficult to handle because the scientists were reasonable in designing the costs per deliverable, and the various deliverables are needed to obtain a real assessment on the forcings and variability during the Holocene. Tasks 1.5 outputs are clearly requested by the modelling community (improved knowledge of forcings with uncertainties). The other outputs will be critical for model data comparisons and to understand interglacial climate variability organization. The initial budget for WP1 was estimated to about 5 million euros and this is also the current amount requested by the participants to provide new inputs. The somehow arbitrary cut to 3.7 M euros is impossible to fit with the expected deliverables. It may be feasible to have reasonable deliverables with an overall budget of about 4.2 M Euros and still major decisions have to be made : - do we cut new methods (still present in the forcing task)? - do we re focus some of the work on selected periods for which modellers will put more emphasis? On the continental part this decision is very critical because the "marine" partners also apply for funding in WP2 and 3 but for terrestrial records this WP1 is the only way to integrate this community. We strongly believe that WP1 outcomes are key to the full project and are necessary to progress in the basic understanding of climate variability and sensitivity to a range of various forcings. Valerie. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 557. 2005-02-21 14:30:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 21 14:30:11 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: FYI: Scripps Study Finds Greenhouse Gases Proximate Cause of to: "Peter Mayes" Peter, There are some links in this one. There isn't a study as such, as Tim Barnett just gave a talk to the annual AAAS meeting. The AAAS web site is given. I suspect this study just updated one Tim had in Science in 2002 or 2001. Cheers Phil X-Sender: schlesin@mail.atmos.uiuc.edu Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 08:13:43 -0600 To: "'Douglas Hoyt'" , "'Climatesceptics'" , "'Daniel P. Schrag'" , "'Richard B. Alley'" , "'Eileen Claussen'" , , , "'Zhenhua li'" , "'Ahilleas Maurellis'" , 'André L. Berger' , "'Andrei S. Monin'" , "'Andrew J. Weaver'" , "'Bernhard Matz'" , "'Brian J. Hoskins'" , "'Bruce A. Wielicki'" , "'Carl Wunsch'" , "'Chris E. Forest'" , "'Chris K. Folland'" , 'Christian-D. Schönwiese' , "'David R. Legates'" , "'Eugenia Kalnay'" , "'Francis W. Zwiers'" , "'Geoff Jenkins'" , "'George Kukla'" , "'Gerard A. Meehl '" , "'Henrik Saxe'" , "'James E. Hansen'" , "'Kevin E. Trenberth'" , "'Martin R. Manning'" , "'Phil Jones'" , "'Rajendra K. Pachauri'" , "'Robert C. Balling Jr'" , "'Roger A. Pielke Sr.'" , "'Roy W. Spencer'" , "'Russell Vose'" , "'Stephen H. Schneider'" , "'Tom M. L. Wigley'" , "'Zbigniew Jaworowski'" , "'Alexey A. Lyubushin'" , "'Bjorn Lomborg'" , "'Charles F. \"Chick\" Keller'" , "'David J. Karoly'" , "'Donald J. Wuebbles'" , "'Heinz Hug'" , "'Jarl R. Ahlbeck'" , "'Kamo S. Demirchian'" , "'Kenneth Green'" , "'Kirill Ya. Kondratyev'" , "'Leonid B. Klyashtorin'" , "'Marty Hoffert'" , "'Michael C. MacCracken'" , "'Reid A. Bryson'" , "'Richard S. Lindzen'" , "'S. Fred Singer'" , "'Sallie Baliunas'" , "'Willie Soon'" , "'Vincent Gray'" , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , "'Moss, Richard H'" , , "'Mike MacCracken'" , , , , , , , "'Klaus Keller'" , , , , , , From: Michael Schlesinger Subject: FYI: Scripps Study Finds Greenhouse Gases Proximate Cause of Ocean Warming (N.B. Source is Insurance Journal; see links at bottom) Cc: schlesin@atmos.uiuc.edu X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean [1]http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2005/02/21/51777.htm?print=1 International News Scripps Study Finds Greenhouse Gases Proximate Cause of Ocean Warming February 21, 2005 Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, and their colleagues have produced the first clear scientific evidence that human activity-and very little else- is warming the world's oceans. The Scripps' report, coming from one of the world's leading ocean research institutions, may turn out to be the "smoking gun" that finally establishes the link between greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other pollutants) and the increase in temperature worldwide, or global warming. The authors contend that their results clearly indicate that the oceans' warming is produced "anthropogenically," i.e. by human activities. The study, conducted by Tim Barnett and David Pierce, along with colleagues at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), used a combination of computer models and real-world "observed" data to capture signals of the penetration of greenhouse gas-influenced warming in the oceans, a Scripps bulletin stated. The findings were reported at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), held in Washington D.C. Dr. Barnett, a research marine physicist in the Climate Research Division at Scripps, stated: "This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past and likely future evolution." He admitted to being "stunned" by the results because the computer models reproduced the penetration of the warming signal in all the oceans. "The statistical significance of these results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much of the uncertainty about the reality of global warming," he continued. In an interview with the BBC Barnett noted that the world's oceans cover around 71 percent of the earth's surface, and that what happens in them therefore has significant consequences on the world's weather and climate. The study used advanced computer models of climate "to calculate human-produced warming over the last 40 years in the world's oceans," said Scripps' bulletin. "In all of the ocean basins, the warming signal found in the upper 700 meters predicted by the models corresponded to the measurements obtained at sea with confidence exceeding 95 percent. The correspondence was especially strong in the upper 500 meters of the water column." The bulletin noted that it is this "high degree of visual agreement and statistical significance that leads Barnett to conclude that the warming is the product of human influence. Efforts to explain the ocean changes through naturally occurring variations in the climate or external forces- such as solar or volcanic factors--did not come close to reproducing the observed warming." If the observations Barnett and his colleagues have identified continue, they will "produce broad-scale changes across the atmosphere and land." Rapidly melting glaciers in South America and China could greatly reduce the amount of water available in the dry summer months. In the Western U.S. warmer conditions could fundamentally alter the snow pack upon which many Western States rely for water. "The new ocean study, taken together with the numerous validations of the same models in the atmosphere, portends far broader changes," Barnett stated. "Other parts of the world will face similar problems to those expected--and being observed now--in the western U.S. The skill demonstrated by the climate models in handling the changing planetary heat budget suggests that these scenarios have a high enough probability of actually happening that they need to be taken seriously by decision makers." While it may be an exaggeration to say that the world's decision makers have been "dithering" over climate change, the only concrete result so far has been the Kyoto protocol, which went into force last week (See IJ Website Feb.17), at least for the countries that have signed up to it. The United States, Brazil and China are notably absent. If the Scripps report convinces those who are still unsure about the causes of global warming that it originates from greenhouse gases, the world will owe Dr. Barnett and his colleagues a great debt. More details concerning the report and the effects of global warming can be obtained on the Scripps' Website at: [2]http://scripps.ucsd.edu[3]/; or on the AAAS Website at: [4]http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2005/0217warmingwarning.shtmle. For general information, see also the United Nations Environment Program Web site at: [5]http://www.unep.org/, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at: [6]http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm. Find this article at: [7]http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2005/02/21/51777.htm © 2005 Wells Publishing, Inc. Reprint Information | Home Search | Contact Us Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1463. 2005-02-21 14:49:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 21 14:49:00 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Beijing - READ THIS FIRST - even newer one to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Booked flights. Arrive on May 8 and return on May 13, so will have May 9 for discussions. Have to get back asap as on HC review committee from May 17. Hope NZ is relaxing ! Cheers Phil Kevin, Realize that there is on one hotel for us ! Phil Kevin, In CRU today - off to Chicago for the VTT CCSP meeting tomorrow. This should be interesting ! Roger Pielke has been stirring things up with a minority report, but Tom Wigley has given me much of the background and some amazingly caustic emails. I'll need to tread carefully ! I'll try to arrange a flight to get Beijing on the Sunday as well. Flying from here I'll get in early that day. I'll return on May 13. Which hotel will you go for? No luck with the ppt file. System here says it's empty. Can you give the file to Dennis and I'll get our computer guy here Mike Salmon (who Dennis has been in contact with in the last week or so about our hi-res datasets)? Maybe between the two of them they can figure something out. If I recall you are either in NZ or Hawaii, so don't worry about the file till you get back unless Dennis can access your filestore. Cheers Phil At 16:28 14/02/2005, you wrote: Phil Any idea of your schedule to Beijing? We have to be there 10-12. I think my main options are a flight from San Fran that gets in after 5 p.m. So I am thinking of going a day earlier: would give me monday free (maybe a bit of sight seeing but also a chance to get together.) Can you get in a bit earlier also? Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3326. 2005-02-21 15:06:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:06:53 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: deliverable 6 data to: Keith Briffa FYI >Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:06:38 +0000 >To: Andreas Pauling >From: Tim Osborn >Subject: deliverable 6 data > >Hi Andreas, > >At last I have a moment to get to this! > >If I recall correctly, you were going to provide the Luterbacher European >temperature reconstruction and the European precipitation reconstruction >(is that the "Pauling" reconstruction)? I think you'd also got hold of >the Guiot European temperature recon - is that right? > >I think it would be useful to obtain the gridded reconstructions >themselves (on the 0.5deg grid?), but also the European mean time series >(for Guiot, was it only the European mean - I can't remember if he >produced a gridded recon?). > >Separate files for each season (and separate files for gridded and >area-mean) would be good. > >As for the format, I'm happy with an ASCII format, unless you already have >them in netCDF and you prefer that. > >I'm not sure about the uncertainty time series - certainly they would be >useful for the area-mean time series, but I'm not sure if we need *all* >the RE values (or 95% uncertainty ranges) through time for the gridded >fields. If you have them in the same format as the gridded data itself, >then we could include them. > >As for the description, that can be limited to the description of the data >format and file contents, and we can just use the Luterbacher and Guiot >papers to provide the scientific description (plus similar for the >precipitation as soon as its available). The description could be plain >text, or HTML, or a word/PDF document. However you wish really! > >For transfer, you can send files to this ftp server: > >Address: mlserver3.cru.uea.ac.uk >Username: hadleycentre >Password: vu459klm > >When logged in, cd to my directory (tosborn). > >You can then use mkdir to make a subdirectory (e.g. deliv6) and cd into that. > >The you can put the various files. > >Does that all sound ok? Please let me know of any difficulties, >ambiguities etc. > >Best wishes and hope you've now recovered from the flu! > >Tim > >At 16:54 18/02/2005, you wrote: >>Dear Tim, >> >>the draft of the annual report is fine for me (and also for >>Heinz Wanner). >> >>Elena Xoplaki told me that you need a description of the >>reconstructed precipitation data set. What variables do you need >>(spatial extent, resolution, etc.)? How are we going to do the >>data transfer? >> >>Cheers, >> >>Andreas >> >> >>Zitat von f055 : >> >> > Dear all, >> > >> > it has been a time-consuming task, but we have put together >> > most of the SO&P >> > annual report now - >> > your contributions have been quite detailed and hence the >> > report is rather >> > long. It is essential that this >> > is submitted to the EU within the next few days. The current >> > version has been >> > placed on the SO&P >> > website (but not linked to anything - so you need the exact >> > addresses below to >> > find it). Please take a >> > look, at least at the bits involving your institution, and let >> > me know of any >> > changes - it is essential that >> > you use the Word version and track changes otherwise I won't >> > have time to >> > combine multiple >> > comments. I have also posted a PDF version, because sometimes >> > the figures do >> > not work for some >> > people in the word version. >> > >> > The text that is highlighted in yellow is still unchanged from >> > the last >> > report. Keith and I are working on >> > that, so there's not much need for you to comment on the >> > yellow bits yet. >> > I'll post a completed draft >> > with those final sections updated as soon as I can. >> > >> > Anyway, the files are: >> > >> > >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/soap/soap_annual_report_2_v >>er13.doc >> > >> > and >> > >> > ./soap_annual_report_2_ver13.pdf >> > ./soap_annual_report_2_ver13.2.pdf >> > ./soap_annual_report_2_ver13.3.pdf >> > >> > (the PDF got split into 3 separate files for some reason). >> > >> > Cheers >> > >> > Tim >> > >> > >> >> >> >> >>------------------------------------------------------ >>This mail was sent through IMP at http://mail.unibe.ch Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 506. 2005-02-21 16:41:02 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 21 16:41:02 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: FYI re IPCC to: Susan Solomon Susan, In case you've not seen this, look at Item 4. Some of the other items are interesting re Mike Mann, but less relevant. A rival IPCC (their Team B). They seem to not realise we're doing an assessment and not a review ! Surprised by Zillman's quote. It is likely out of context as Francis Zwiers one was in the WSJ on the hockey stick. Thanks for sending round the piece about dealing with the media. Kevin and I are fully aware how careful we need to be about tropical cyclones and on the MSU issue (I'm off tomorrow to Chicago to be on the Academy review of the CCSP report on vertical temperature trends). Keith Briffa is also totally aware of the importance of the last millennium re Ch 6. Cheers Phil X-Sender: f023@pop.uea.ac.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.0.6 Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:40:05 +0000 To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk From: Keith Briffa Subject: Fwd: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA Subject: CCNet: PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 15:02:37 -0000 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: pressure grows on climate modellers to relase secret data Thread-Index: AcUXiV64e/f3Ii8uQSa0X88pndSQgQAl2O1w From: "Peiser, Benny" To: "cambridge-conference" X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean CCNet 22/2005 - 21 February 2005 PRESSURE GROWING ON CONTROVERSIAL RESEARCHER TO DISCLOSE SECRET DATA -------------------------------------------------------------------- This should have produced a healthy scientific debate. Instead, Mr. Mann tried to shut down debate by refusing to disclose the mathematical algorithm by which he arrived at his conclusions. All the same, Mr. Mann was forced to publish a retraction of some of his initial data, and doubts about his statistical methods have since grown. --The Wall Street Journal, 18 February 2005 But maybe we are in that much trouble. The WSJ highlights what Regaldo and McIntyre says is Mann's resistance or outright refusal to provide to inquiring minds his data, all details of his statistical analysis, and his code. So this is what I say to Dr. Mann and others expressing deep concern over peer review: give up your data, methods and code freely and with a smile on your face. --Kevin Vranes, Science Policy, 18 February 2005 Mann's work doesn't meet that definition [of science], and those who use Mann's curve in their arguments are not making a scientific argument. One of Pournelle's Laws states "You can prove anything if you can make up your data." I will now add another Pournelle's Law: "You can prove anything if you can keep your algorithms secret." --Jerry Pournelle, 18 February 2005 The time has come to question the IPCC's status as the near-monopoly source of information and advice for its member governments. It is probably futile to propose reform of the present IPCC process. Like most bureaucracies, it has too much momentum and its institutional interests are too strong for anyone realistically to suppose that it can assimilate more diverse points of view, even if more scientists and economists were keen to join up. The rectitude and credibility of the IPCC could be best improved not through reform, but through competition. --Steven F. Hayward, The American Enterprise Institute, 15 February 2005 (1) HOCKEY STICK ON ICE The Wall Street Journal, 18 February 2005 (2) SCIENCE AND OPEN ALGORITHMS: "YOU CAN PROVE ANYTHING WITH SECRET DATA AND ALGORITHMS" Jerry Pournell, 18 February 2005 (3) OPEN SEASON ON HOCKEY AND PEER REVIEW Science Policy, 18 February 2005 (4) CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE: TIME FOR TEAM "B"? The American Enterprise Institute, 15 February 2005 (5) BRING THE PROXIES UP TO DATE! Climate Audit, 20 February 2005 (6) CARELESS SCIENCE COSTS LIVES The Guardian, 18 February 2005 (7) RE: MORE TROUBLE FOR CLIMATE MODELS Helen Krueger (8) HOW TO HANDLE ASTEROID 2004 MN4 Jens Kieffer-Olsen (9) AND FINALLY: EUROPE FURTHER FALLING BEHIND IN TECHNOLOGY AND RESEARCH EU Observer, 10 February 2005 ================== (1) HOCKEY STICK ON ICE The Wall Street Journal, 18 February 2005 [1]http://online.wsj.com/article_email/0,,SB110869271828758608-IdjeoNmlah4n5yta4GHaqyIm4 ,00.html On Wednesday National Hockey League Commissioner Gary Bettman canceled the season, and we guess that's a loss. But this week also brought news of something else that's been put on ice. We're talking about the "hockey stick." Just so we're clear, this hockey stick isn't a sports implement; it's a scientific graph. Back in the late 1990s, American geoscientist Michael Mann published a chart that purported to show average surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1,000 years. The chart showed relatively minor fluctuations in temperature over the first 900 years, then a sharp and continuous rise over the past century, giving it a hockey-stick shape. Mr. Mann's chart was both a scientific and political sensation. It contradicted a body of scientific work suggesting a warm period early in the second millennium, followed by a "Little Ice Age" starting in the 14th century. It also provided some visually arresting scientific support for the contention that fossil-fuel emissions were the cause of higher temperatures. Little wonder, then, that Mr. Mann's hockey stick appears five times in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's landmark 2001 report on global warming, which paved the way to this week's global ratification -- sans the U.S., Australia and China -- of the Kyoto Protocol. Yet there were doubts about Mr. Mann's methods and analysis from the start. In 1998, Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics published a paper in the journal Climate Research, arguing that there really had been a Medieval warm period. The result: Messrs. Soon and Baliunas were treated as heretics and six editors at Climate Research were made to resign. Still, questions persisted. In 2003, Stephen McIntyre, a Toronto minerals consultant and amateur mathematician, and Ross McKitrick, an economist at Canada's University of Guelph, jointly published a critique of the hockey stick analysis. Their conclusion: Mr. Mann's work was riddled with "collation errors, unjustifiable truncations of extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculations of principal components, and other quality control defects." Once these were corrected, the Medieval warm period showed up again in the data. This should have produced a healthy scientific debate. Instead, as the Journal's Antonio Regalado reported Monday, Mr. Mann tried to shut down debate by refusing to disclose the mathematical algorithm by which he arrived at his conclusions. All the same, Mr. Mann was forced to publish a retraction of some of his initial data, and doubts about his statistical methods have since grown. Statistician Francis Zwiers of Environment Canada (a government agency) notes that Mr. Mann's method "preferentially produces hockey sticks when there are none in the data." Other reputable scientists such as Berkeley's Richard Muller and Hans von Storch of Germany's GKSS Center essentially agree. We realize this may all seem like so much academic nonsense. Yet if there really was a Medieval warm period (we draw no conclusions), it would cast some doubt on the contention that our SUVs and air conditioners, rather than natural causes, are to blame for apparent global warming. There is also the not-so-small matter of the politicization of science: If climate scientists feel their careers might be put at risk by questioning some orthodoxy, the inevitable result will be bad science. It says something that it took two non-climate scientists to bring Mr. Mann's errors to light. But the important point is this: The world is being lobbied to place a huge economic bet -- as much as $150 billion a year -- on the notion that man-made global warming is real. Businesses are gearing up, at considerable cost, to deal with a new regulatory environment; complex carbon-trading schemes are in the making. Shouldn't everyone look very carefully, and honestly, at the science before we jump off this particular cliff? Copyright 2005, The Wall Street Journal ============= (2) SCIENCE AND OPEN ALGORITHMS: "YOU CAN PROVE ANYTHING WITH SECRET DATA AND ALGORITHMS" Jerry Pournell, 18 February 2005 [2]http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/view349.html#hockeystick Science and Open Algorithms: You can prove anything with secret data and algorithms. There is a long piece on the global "hockey stick" in today's Wall Street Journal that explains something I didn't understand: Mann, who generated the "hockey stick" curve purporting to show that the last century was unique in all recorded history with its sharp climb in temperature, has released neither the algorithm that generated his curve nor the data on which it was based. I had refrained from commenting on the "hockey stick" because I couldn't understand how it was derived. I've done statistical analysis and prediction from uncertainty much of my life. My first job in aerospace was as part of the Human Factors and Reliability Group at Boeing, where we were expected to deal with such matters as predicting component failures, and deriving maintenance schedules (replace it before it fails, but not so long before it fails that the costs including the cost of the maintenance crew and the costs of taking the airplane out of service are prohibitive) and other such matters. I used to live with Incomplete Gamma Functions and other complex integrals; and I could not for the life of me understand how Mann derived his famous curve. Now I know: he hasn't told anyone. He says that telling people how he generated it would be tantamount to giving in to his critics. More on this after my walk, but the one thing we may conclude for sure is that this is not science. His curve has been distributed as part of the Canadian government's literature on why Canada supports Kyoto, and is said to have been influential in causing the "Kyoto Consensus" so it is certainly effective propaganda; but IT IS NOT SCIENCE. Science deals with repeatability and openness. When I took Philosophy of Science from Gustav Bergmann at the University of Iowa a very long time ago, our seminar came to a one-sentence "practical definition" of science: Science is what you can put in a letter to a colleague and he'll get the same results you did. Now I don't claim that as original for it wasn't even me who came up with it in the seminar; but I do claim Bergmann liked that formulation, and it certainly appealed to me, and I haven't seen a better one-sentence practical definition of science. Mann's work doesn't meet that definition, and those who use Mann's curve in their arguments are not making a scientific argument. One of Pournelle's Laws states "You can prove anything if you can make up your data." I will now add another Pournelle's Law: "You can prove anything if you can keep your algorithms secret." ============= (3) OPEN SEASON ON HOCKEY AND PEER REVIEW Science Policy, 18 February 2005 [3]http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000355open_seaso n_on_hocke.html By Kevin Vranes The recent 2/14 WSJ article ("Global Warring..." by Antonio Regaldo) addresses the debate that most readers of this site are well familiar with: the Mann et al. hockey stick. The WSJ is still asking - and trying to answer - the basic questions: hockey stick or no hockey stick? But the background premise of the article, stated explicitly and implicitly throughout, is that it was the hockey stick that led to Kyoto and other climate policy. Is it? I think it's fair to say that to all of us in the field of climatology, the notion that Kyoto is based on the Mann curve is utter nonsense. If a climatologist, or a policy advisor charged with knowing the science well enough to make astute recommendations to his/her boss, relied solely on the Mann curve to prove definitively the existence of anthropogenic warming, then we're in deeper trouble than anybody realizes. (This is essentially what Stephan Ramstorf writes in a 1/27 RealClimate post.) And although it's easy to believe that national and international policy can hinge on single graphs, I hope we give policy makers more credit than that. But maybe we are in that much trouble. The WSJ highlights what Regaldo and McIntyre says is Mann's resistance or outright refusal to provide to inquiring minds his data, all details of his statistical analysis, and his code. The WSJ's anecdotal treatment of the subject goes toward confirming what I've been hearing for years in climatology circles about not just Mann, but others collecting original climate data. As concerns Mann himself, this is especially curious in light of the recent RealClimate posts (link and link) in which Mann and Gavin Schmidt warn us about peer review and the limits therein. Their point is essentially that peer review is limited and can be much less than thorough. One assumes that they are talking about their own work as well as McIntyre's, although they never state this. Mann and Schmidt go to great lengths in their post to single out Geophysical Research Letters. Their post then seems a bit ironic, as GRL is the journal in which the original Mann curve was published (1999, vol 26., issue 6, p. 759), an article which is now receiving much attention as being flawed and under-reviewed. (For that matter, why does Table 1 in Mann et al. (1999) list many chronologies in the Southern Hemisphere while the rest of the paper promotes a Northern Hemisphere reconstruction? Legit or not, it's a confusing aspect of the paper that should never have made it past peer review.) Of their take on peer review, I couldn't agree more. In my experience, peer review is often cursory at best. So this is what I say to Dr. Mann and others expressing deep concern over peer review: give up your data, methods and code freely and with a smile on your face. That is real peer review. A 12 year-old hacker prodigy in her grandparents' basement should have as much opportunity to check your work as a "semi-retired Toronto minerals consultant." Those without three letters after their name can be every bit as intellectually qualified, and will likely have the time for careful review that typical academic reviewers find lacking. Specious analysis of your work will be borne out by your colleagues, and will enter the debate with every other original work. Your job is not to prevent your critics from checking your work and potentially distorting it; your job is to continue to publish insightful, detailed analyses of the data and let the community decide. You can be part of the debate without seeming to hinder access to it. =============== (4) CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE: TIME FOR TEAM "B"? The American Enterprise Institute, 15 February 2005 [4]http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.21974/pub_detail.asp By Steven F. Hayward The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is currently working on its fourth assessment report. Despite the IPCC's noble intent to generate a scientific consensus, a number of factors have compromised the research and drafting process, assuring that its next assessment report will be just as controversial as previous reports in 1995 and 2001. Efforts to reform this large bureaucratic effort are unlikely to succeed. Perhaps the time has come to consider competition as the means of checking the IPCC's monopoly and generating more reliable climate science. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moves toward the release of its fourth assessment report (fourth AR) in 2007, the case of Chris Landsea offers in microcosm an example of why the IPCC's findings are going to have credibility problems. Last month Landsea, a climate change scientist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), resigned as a participant in the producing the report. Landsea had been a chapter author and reviewer for the IPCC's second assessment report in 1995 and the third in 2001, and he is a leading expert on hurricanes and related extreme weather phenomena. He had signed on with the IPCC to update the state of current knowledge on Atlantic hurricanes for the fourth report. In an open letter, Landsea wrote that he could no longer in good conscience participate in a process that is "being motivated by pre-conceived agendas" and is "scientifically unsound."[1] Landsea's resignation was prompted by an all too familiar occurrence: The lead author of the fourth AR's chapter on climate observations, Kevin Trenberth, participated in a press conference that warned of increasing hurricane activity as a result of global warming.[2] It is common to hear that man-made global warming represents the "consensus" of science, yet the use of hurricanes and cyclones as a marker of global warming represents a clear-cut case of the consensus being roundly ignored. Both the second and third IPCC assessments concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record. Moreover, most climate models predict future warming will have only a small effect--if any--on hurricane strength. "It is beyond me," Landsea wrote, "why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming."[3] Landsea's critique goes beyond a fit of pique at the abuse of his area of expertise. The IPCC, he believes, has become thoroughly politicized, and is unresponsive to criticism. "When I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership," Landsea wrote, "their response was simply to dismiss my concerns."[4] Landsea's frustration is not an isolated experience. MIT physicist Richard Lindzen, another past IPCC author who is not participating in the fourth report, has written: "My experiences over the past 16 years have led me to the discouraging conclusion that we are dealing with the almost insoluble interaction of an iron triangle with an iron rice bowl." (Lindzen's "iron triangle" consists of activists misusing science to get the attention of the news media and politicians; the "iron rice bowl" is the parallel phenomenon where scientists exploit the activists' alarm to increase research funding and attention for the issue.[5]) And Dr. John Zillman, one of Australia's leading climate scientists, is another ex-IPCC participant who believes the IPCC has become "cast more in the model of supporting than informing policy development."[6] And when the IPCC is not ignoring its responsible critics like Landsea and Lindzen, it is demonizing them. Not long ago the IPCC's chairman, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, compared eco-skeptic Bjorn Lomborg to Hitler. "What is the difference between Lomborg's view of humanity and Hitler's?" Pachauri asked in a Danish newspaper. "If you were to accept Lomborg's way of thinking, then maybe what Hitler did was the right thing."[7] Lomborg's sin was merely to follow the consensus practice of economists in applying a discount to present costs for future benefits, and comparing the range of outcomes with other world problems alongside climate change. It is hard to judge what is worse: Pachauri's appalling judgment in resorting to reductio ad Hitlerum, or his abysmal ignorance of basic economics. In either case, it is hard to have much confidence in the policy advice the IPCC might have. [...] Time for "Team B"? The time has come to question the IPCC's status as the near-monopoly source of information and advice for its member governments. It is probably futile to propose reform of the present IPCC process. Like most bureaucracies, it has too much momentum and its institutional interests are too strong for anyone realistically to suppose that it can assimilate more diverse points of view, even if more scientists and economists were keen to join up. The rectitude and credibility of the IPCC could be best improved not through reform, but through competition.... FULL PAPER at [5]http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.21974/pub_detail.asp =========== (5) BRING THE PROXIES UP TO DATE! Climate Audit, 20 February 2005 [6]http://www.climateaudit.org/index.php?p=89#more-89 Steve McIntyre I will make here a very simple suggestion: if IPCC or others want to use "multiproxy" reconstructions of world temperature for policy purposes, stop using data ending in 1980 and bring the proxies up-to-date. Let's see how they perform in the warm 1990s - which should be an ideal period to show the merit of the proxies. I do not believe that any responsible policy-maker can base policy, even in part, on the continued use of obsolete data ending in 1980, when the costs of bringing the data up-to-date is inconsequential compared to Kyoto costs. I would appreciate comments on this note as I think that I will pursue the matter with policymakers. For example, in Mann's famous hockey stick graph, as presented to policymakers and to the public, the graph used Mann's reconstruction from proxies up to 1980 and instrumental temperatures (here, as in other similar studies, using Jones' more lurid CRU surface history rather than the more moderate increases shown by satellite measurements). Usually (but not always), a different color is used for the instrumental portion, but, from a promotional point of view, the juxtaposition of the two series achieves the desired promotional effect. (In mining promotions, where there is considerable community experience with promotional graphics and statistics, securities commission prohibit the adding together of proven ore reserves and inferred ore reserves - a policy which deserves a little reflection in the context of IPCC studies). Last week, a brand new multiproxy study by European scientists [Moberg et al., 2005] was published in Nature. On the very day of publication, I received an email from a prominent scientist telling me that Mann's hockeystick was yesterday's news, that the "community" had now "moved on" and so should I. That the "community" had had no opportunity to verify Moberg's results, however meritorious they may finally appear, seemed to matter not at all. If you look at the proxy portion of the new Moberg graphic, you see nothing that would be problematic for opponents of the hockey stick: it shows a striking Medieval Warm Period (MWP), a cold Little Ice Age and 20th century warming not quite reaching MWP levels by 1979, when the proxy portion of the study ends. (I'm in the process of examining the individual proxies and the Moberg reconstruction is not without its own imperfections.) In the presentation to the public - see the figure in the Nature article itself, once again, there is the infamous splice between reconstruction by proxy (up to 1980) and the instrumental record thereafter (once again Jones' CRU record, rather than the satellite record). One of the first question that occurs to any civilian becoming familiar with these studies (and it was one of my first questions) is: what happens to the proxies after 1980? Given the presumed warmth of the 1990s, and especially 1998 (the "warmest year in the millennium"), you'd think that the proxy values would be off the chart. In effect, the last 25 years have provided an ideal opportunity to validate the usefulness of proxies and, especially the opportunity to test the confidence intervals of these studies, put forward with such assurance by the multiproxy proponents. What happens to the proxies used in MBH99 or Moberg et al [2005] or Crowley and Lowery [2000] in the 1990s and, especially, 1998? This question about proxies after 1980 was posed by a civilian to Mann in December at realclimate. Mann replied: Most reconstructions only extend through about 1980 because the vast majority of tree-ring, coral, and ice core records currently available in the public domain do not extend into the most recent decades. While paleoclimatologists are attempting to update many important proxy records to the present, this is a costly, and labor-intensive activity, often requiring expensive field campaigns that involve traveling with heavy equipment to difficult-to-reach locations (such as high-elevation or remote polar sites). For historical reasons, many of the important records were obtained in the 1970s and 1980s and have yet to be updated. [my bold] Pause and think about this response. Think about the costs of Kyoto and then think again about this answer. Think about the billions spent on climate research and then try to explain to me why we need to rely on "important records" obtained in the 1970s. Far more money has been spent on climate research in the last decade than in the 1970s. Why are we still relying on obsolete proxy data? As someone with actual experience in the mineral exploration business, which also involves "expensive field campaigns that involve traveling with heavy equipment to difficult-to-reach locations", I can assure readers that Mann's response cannot be justified and is an embarrassment to the paleoclimate community. The more that I think about it, the more outrageous is both the comment itself and the fact that no one seems to have picked up on it. It is even more outrageous when you look in detail at what is actually involved in collecting the proxy data used in the medieval period in the key multiproxy studies. The number of proxies used in MBH99 is from fewer than 40 sites (28 tree ring sites being U.S. tree ring sites represented in 3 principal component series). As to the time needed to update some of these tree ring sites, here is an excerpt from Lamarche et al. [1984] on the collection of key tree ring cores from Sheep Mountain and Campito Mountain, which are the most important indicators in the MBH reconstruction: "D.A.G. [Graybill] and M.R.R. [Rose] collected tree ring samples at 3325 m on Mount Jefferson, Toquima Range, Nevada and 11 August 1981. D.A.G. and M.R.R. collected samples from 13 trees at Campito Mountain (3400 m) and from 15 trees at Sheep Mountain (3500 m) on 31 October 1983." Now to get to Campito Mountain and Sheep Mountain, they had to get to Bishop, California, which is hardly "remote" even by Paris Hilton standards, and then proceed by road to within a few hundred meters of the site, perhaps proceeding for some portion of the journey on unpaved roads. The picture below illustrates the taking of a tree ring core. While the equipment may seem "heavy" to someone used only to desk work using computers, people in the mineral exploration business would not regard this drill as being especially "heavy" and I believe that people capable of operating such heavy equipment can be found, even in out-of-the way places like Bishop, California. I apologize for the tone here, but it is impossible for me not to be facetious. There is only one relatively remote site in the entire MBH99 roster - the Quelccaya glacier in Peru. Here, fortunately, the work is already done (although, needless to say, it is not published.) This information was updated in 2003 by Lonnie Thompson and should be adequate to update these series. With sufficient pressure from the U.S. National Science Foundation, the data should be available expeditiously. (Given that Thompson has not archived data from Dunde drilled in 1987, the need for pressure should not be under-estimated.) I realize that the rings need to be measured and that the field work is only a portion of the effort involved. But updating 28 tree ring sites in the United States is not a monumental enterprise nor would updating any of the other sites. I've looked through lists of the proxies used in Jones et al. [1998], MBH99, Crowley and Lowery [2000], Mann and Jones [2003], Moberg et al [2005] and see no obstacles to bringing all these proxies up to date. The only sites that might take a little extra time would be updating the Himalayan ice cores. Even here, it's possible that taking very short cores or even pits would prove adequate for an update and this might prove easier than one might be think. Be that as it may, any delays in updating the most complicated location should not deter updating all the other locations. As far as I'm concerned, this should be the first order of business for multiproxy studies. Whose responsibility is this? While the costs are trivial in the scheme of Kyoto, they would still be a significant line item in the budget of a university department. I think that the responsibility here lies with the U.S. National Science Foundation and its equivalents in Canada and Europe. The responsibilities for collecting the proxy updates could be divided up in a couple of emails and budgets established. One other important aspect: right now the funding agencies fund academics to do the work and are completely ineffective in ensuring prompt reporting. At best, academic practice will tie up reporting of results until the publication of articles in an academic journals, creating a delay right at the start. Even then, in cases like Thompson or Jacoby, to whom I've referred elsewhere, the data may never be archived or only after decades in the hands of the originator. So here I would propose something more like what happens in a mineral exploration program. When a company has drill results, it has to publish them through a press release. It can't wait for academic reports or for its geologists to spin the results. There's lots of time to spin afterwards. Good or bad - the results have to be made public. The company has a little discretion so that it can release drill holes in bunches and not every single drill hole, but the discretion can't build up too much during an important program. Here I would insist that the proxy results be archived as soon as they are produced - the academic reports and spin can come later. Since all these sites have already been published, people are used to the proxies and the updates will to a considerable extend speak for themselves. What would I expect from such studies? Drill programs are usually a surprise and maybe there's one here. My hunch is that the classic proxies will not show anywhere near as "loud" a signal in the 1990s as is needed to make statements comparing the 1990s to the Medieval Warm Period with any confidence at all. I've not surveyed proxies in the 1990s (nor to my knowledge has anyone else), but I've started to look and many do not show the expected "loud" signal e.g. some of the proxies posted up on this site such as Alaskan tree rings, TTHH ring widths, and theories are starting to develop. But the discussions so far do not explicit point out the effect of signal failure on the multiproxy reconstruction project. But this is only a hunch and the evidence could be otherwise. The point is this: there's no need to speculate any further. It's time to bring the classic proxies up to date. ============= (6) CARELESS SCIENCE COSTS LIVES The Guardian, 18 February 2005 [7]http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1417224,00.html Dick Taverne In science, as in much of life, it is believed that you get what you pay for. According to opinion polls, people do not trust scientists who work for industry because they only care about profits, or government scientists because they suspect them of trying to cover up the truth. Scientists who work for environmental NGOs are more highly regarded. Because they are trying to save the planet, people are ready to believe that what they say must be true. A House of Lords report, Science and Society, published in 2000, agreed that motives matter. It argued that science and scientists are not value-free, and therefore that scientists would command more trust "if they openly declare the values that underpin their work". It all sounds very plausible, but mostly it is wrong. Scientists with the best of motives can produce bad science, just as scientists whose motives may be considered suspect can produce good science. An obvious example of the first was Rachel Carson, who, if not the patron saint, was at least the founding mother of modern environmentalism. Her book The Silent Spring was an inspiring account of the damage caused to our natural environment by the reckless spraying of pesticides, especially DDT. However, Carson also claimed that DDT caused cancer and liver damage, claims for which there is no evidence but which led to an effective worldwide ban on the use of DDT that is proving disastrous. Her motives were pure; the science was wrong. DDT is the most effective agent ever invented for preventing insect-borne disease, which, according to the US National Academy of Sciences and the WHO, prevented over 50 million human deaths from malaria in about two decades. Although there is no evidence that DDT harms human health, some NGOs still demand a worldwide ban for that reason. Careless science cost lives. Contrast the benefits that have resulted from the profit motive, a motive that is held to be suspect by the public. Multinationals, chief villains in the demonology of contemporary anti-capitalists, have developed antibiotics, vaccines that have eradicated many diseases like smallpox and polio, genetically modified insulin for diabetics, and plants such as GM insect-resistant cotton that have reduced the need for pesticides and so increased the income and improved the health of millions of small cotton farmers. The fact is that self-interest can benefit the public as effectively as philanthropy. Motives are not irrelevant, and unselfish motives are rightly admired more than selfish ones. There are numerous examples of misconduct by big companies, and we should examine their claims critically and provide effective regulation to control abuses of power and ensure the safety of their products. Equally, we should not uncritically accept the claims of those who act from idealistic motives. NGOs inspired by the noble cause of protecting our environment often become careless about evidence and exaggerate risks to attract attention (and funds). Although every leading scientific academy has concluded that GM crops are at least as safe as conventional foods, this does not stop Greenpeace reiterating claims about the dangers of "Frankenfoods". Stephen Schneider, a climatologist, publicly justified distortion of evidence: "Because we are not just scientists but human beings as well ... we need to ... capture the public imagination ... So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we have." But in the end motives are irrelevant to the validity of science. It does not matter if a scientist wants to help mankind, get a new grant, win a Nobel prize or increase the profits of her company. It does not matter whether a researcher works for Monsanto or for Greenpeace. Results are no more to be trusted if the researcher declares his values and confesses that he beats his wife, believes in God, or is an Arsenal supporter. What matters is that the work has been peer-reviewed, that the findings are reproducible and that they last. If they do, they are good science. If not, not. Science itself is value-free. There are objective truths in science. We can now regard it as a fact that the Earth goes rounds the sun and that Darwinism explains the evolution of species. A look at the history of science makes it evident how irrelevant the values of scientists are. Newton's passion for alchemy did not invalidate his discovery of the laws of gravitation. To quote Professor Fox of Rutger's University: "How was it relevant to Mendel's findings about peas that he was a white, European monk? They would have been just as valid if Mendel had been a Spanish-speaking, lesbian atheist." · Lord Taverne is chair of Sense About Science and author of The March of Unreason, to be published next month Copyright 2005, The Guardian ========== LETTERS ========= (7) RE: MORE TROUBLE FOR CLIMATE MODELS Helen Krueger Dear Dr. Peiser, I just want to let you know how much I am enjoying being included in your list so that I can benefit from your astute handling of alarmist information personally and with my students. Thank you so much! Regards, Helen A. Krueger Educational Consultant Phone: 203-426-8043 FAX: 203-426-3541 =========== (8) HOW TO HANDLE ASTEROID 2004 MN4 Jens Kieffer-Olsen Dear Benny Peiser, In CCNet 18/2005 - 11 February 2005 you brought an interesting article on the possible breakup of NEA 2004 MN4 in the year 2029: > But there's another reason for concern. According to Dan > Durda, another SWRI astronomer, 2004 MN4 is likely to be > a "rubble-pile" asteroid, consisting of material only > loosely held together by gravity. Because the asteroid > will pass us at just 2.5 times Earth's diameter, tidal > forces could tear it apart. The result would be a trail > of rocks drifting slowly apart with the passage of time. > One or more of these might hit Earth in the more distant > future, creating a spectacular fireball as it burns up > in the atmosphere. > --Bill Cooke, Astronomy Magazine, 10 February 2005 First of all, a 300m asteroid could break into 100 pieces each larger than the Tunguska impactor. Secondly, the years for which a TS rating of 1 already exist for the object are NOT in the distant future, but 6, 7, and 8 years later. That reminds us that neither the Torino nor the Palermo scale takes into account the possibility of such a MIRV'ed approach. Furthermore, the Palermo scale is designed to take into account the lead time. Even if 2004 MN4 were not to break up, the lead time to virtual impact in 2029 would be down to one sixth of the time to-day. In other words, if the post-2029 orbit is not being resolved before then, we may as well up the PS rating accordingly. If my math is correct, we should add 0.78 to its Palermo Scale rating, ie. log10(6), for a total of -0.65. Yours sincerely Jens Kieffer-Olsen, M.Sc.(Elec.Eng.) Slagelse, Denmark ========== (9) AND FINALLY: EUROPE FURTHER FALLING BEHIND IN TECHNOLOGY AND RESEARCH EU Observer, 10 February 2005 [8]http://www.euobserver.com/?aid=18382&print=1 By Lucia Kubosova BRUSSELS / EUOBSERVER - Europeans are still failing to show world leadership in technology and research, a new report shows. The paper, published on Thursday (10 February) has evaluated the EU research and development programmes and their impact on Europe's knowledge-base and potential for innovation. While it argues that EU funds for the programmes make a "major contribution", it suggests that more resources, industry participation and simplified administration are needed for them to have a greater effect in future. "We have somehow lost momentum", said Erkki Ormala, chair of the panel issuing the report. "The EU is falling behind. And we are now under pressue not only compared to our traditional rivals like the US or Japan, but also China, India or Brazil. We are facing a much tougher competition in talent and knowledge than we are used to". Research Commissioner Janez Potocnik considers the paper's results as a reason for doubling the funds in his portfolio within the next budgetary period of 2007-2013. "We don't want to achieve our economic growth by lowering the social or environmental standards. So to compete globally, we need to focus on knowledge", Mr Potocnik said to journalists, adding that the EU programmes should "make a bridge between practical innovation and research". The report has listed several possible solutions for tackling outlined setbacks. It argues that the EU must attract and reward the best talent, mobilise resources for innovation and boost cooperation between governments, businesses and universities in research. It supports the idea of setting up a European Research Council to promote excellence and encourages more industry involvement, mainly on the part of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). However, SME representatives complain that their ideas about EU research and innovation funding are not taken into consideration. "It's not about how big the budget is for SMEs and their involvement in such projects. It is rather about the allocation of the funds. Most of them are granted for huge long-term projects which cost millions of euro and they can hardly attract smaller companies", according to Ullrich Schroeder, from UEAPME, the main umbrella organisation. He argues that while several reports have already pointed out that SMEs must be more involved if the "Lisbon agenda" goal of 3 percent of GDP to be invested in research and development in the EU by 2010 is to be achieved, in reality they are not as well supported as huge transnational companies. "It is not that the EU member states invest much less in universities than the US, but the greatest difference is that European SMEs are only investing 8% of the US amount, and it is simply not enough". Mr Schroeder also said that while "there is a lot of rhetoric from politicians, that the SMEs should get involved, innovate and compete, when they come up with good projects, they are not sufficiently supported". "The European Commission is more concerned about big companies and hightech areas, while innovation is needed also in more down-to earth sectors", Mr Schroeder told the EUobserver. © EUobserver.com 2005 ------ CCNet is a scholarly electronic network. To subscribe/unsubscribe, please contact the editor Benny Peiser . Information circulated on this network is for scholarly and educational use only. The attached information may not be copied or reproduced for any other purposes without prior permission of the copyright holders. DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed in the articles and texts and in other CCNet contributions do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the editor. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2413. 2005-02-21 22:53:31 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Brohan, Philip" date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 22:53:31 +0000 from: "Tett, Simon" subject: FW: More on the "Hocky Stick" to: Keith Briffa , Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, "Folland, Chris" Keith/Hans/Chris, Defra do ask the impossible! Can you help me? Are there other papers I should be aware of? Hans/Chris are the statistical criticisms of Mackintyre and McKitrick OK? Philip -- do you have any thoughts? [Beyond that the paleo community cannot do stats!] (Keith/Hans we can claim to the EU that SOAP is informing policy now!) Simon Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org -----Original Message----- From: Johnson, Cathy (GA) [mailto:Cathy.Johnson@defra.gsi.gov.uk] Sent: 21 February 2005 14:16 To: 'Simon Tett' Cc: Warrilow, David (GA); Oliver, Sophia (GA); 'Vicky Pope' Subject: RE: More on the "Hocky Stick" Dear Simon Thank you for bringing this to our attention. As there have been a number of developments in this area lately, we would find it very useful to have a short briefing note (1 page maximum) summarising the present state of knowledge. Please can you prepare one for us? It should cover: Mackintyre and McKitrick's criticism of Mann et al (from a year or two ago) von Storch et al's critique of Mann et al Mackintyre and McKitrick's latest criticism of Mann et al the new paper from Moberg et al anything else you think we should be aware of a summing up many thanks Cathy -----Original Message----- From: Simon Tett [mailto:simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk] Sent: Wednesday, February 09, 2005 1:19 PM To: Johnson, Cathy (GA) Cc: Vicky Pope; Tim Osborn; Keith Briffa; Chris Folland; Simon Tett Subject: More on the "Hocky Stick" Cathy, Tomorrow Nature is publishing a paper, by Moberg and others, called "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data". It reconstructs past temperature variability from 200 AD to present and finds much higher variability than is in the Mann "Hocky Stick". They claim that temperatures around 1000 to 1100 are roughly the same as the 20th century prior to 1990. Moberg et al combine data from low temporal resolution proxies (Ice cores, ocean sediments and others) with high-resolution proxies (mainly tree-ring data). Tree rings have problems estimating low-frequency temperature variability due to the need to correct for tree growth. So they time-filter the tree-ring data to remove low frequencies and combine this with the low frequency variability. However, Tim Osborn and Keith Briffa (who know much much more than I do about proxy reconstructions) have grave reservations about the paper's methodology. Their main concern is how the low-resolution data was calibrated in order to convert changes in the proxy to changes in temperature. The supplementary information to the paper (which is not available to us right now) may reassure them (or may reinforce their views). yours Simon P.S. If you want to discuss more then I am in Exeter today/Thursday and can be contacted on 01392 886886 -- Simon Tett Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes. The original of this email was scanned for viruses by the Government Secure Intranet (GSi) virus scanning service supplied exclusively by Energis in partnership with MessageLabs. On leaving the GSi this email was certified virus-free 4527. 2005-02-22 09:35:50 ______________________________________________________ cc: erick.larson@fa.uib.no, Beatriz Balino , loutre@astr.ucl.ac.be date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 09:35:50 +0100 from: Hugues Goosse subject: Re: B parts to: Eystein Jansen , imprint-ssc@bjerknes.uib.no Dear Eystein, I have attached the document B1-3 and B4 with some comments and suggestion from our group (track changes in word). In addition, I have included below the main points so that you should not track the changes in all the documents to get the main topics of the suggestions we have included in the documents. All the best Hugues The project adresses various questions. This must appears as a strength because we will be able to address the main issues in which paleoclimate can be useful for future prediction not a weakness because the project is too diluted. If the sub-titles in B.1 are not compulsory, we suggest to slightly adapt improving climate predictions .... state-of-the art to the actual content of the section. improving climate predictions .... the project specifities within the general scientific context Section on abrupt climate change and on climate surprises in B1 could be merged. Moreover, A component of the proposal is missing at this stage, i.e. the end of an interglacial. Make it clearer in B1 that there will be climate projection (WP4 and WP7). What is the role of regional model(s) in the project?. WP1. Introduction mainly focused towards Europe but we also want to make hemispheric scale reconstruction (useful to asses climate sensitivity for instance). To make those hemispheric reconstruction, links with existing data could be made more clear. It is mentioned a few times (introduction of WP2, task 2.3, introduction of WP.4) that we want to look at the end of interglacial and thus state when the present interglacial will end. However, it is not at all clear to me how the modelling work would help for that. Furthermore, this issue is not mentioned in WP7 that should summerize the lessons for the future or in documents B1-B3. The way model simulation will be handled in the data base would probably require one or two additional sentences. The deliverables of WP6 are mainly related to the skill of proxy and models but the text also deals with mechanisms. Some words about mechanisms (or related to the preparation of the work done in WP7 should also be included). In WP7, more emphasis could be made on Greenland Ice Sheet melting (as it appears to be an important point in B1). At some locations (e.g. tasks 6.4 and 7.2), we use sentences like additional experiments will be made to study this point. I think that such sentences should be avoided because they are not precise enough. If we know now what we will do, we should say that. If the design of those experiments depends of the results of the project itself and are thus not yet precisely determined, we should say it explicitly. The place for numerical simulation should remain, as much as possible, in WP4. We assume that updated list of partners, list of deliverable and timetables are part of the formatting and thus we didnt comment on these points. A final check for acronyms will be needed (AMOC or A-MOC or MOC; SOAP or SO&P; ...) International program : INTIMATE Project : INTegration of Ice core, Marine and Terrestrial records of the Last Termination. At 08:44 18/02/2005 +0100, Eystein Jansen wrote: Dear friends, Thanks for working hard on getting there.... Please find enclosed two documents. One contains the draft of B1,B2 and B3. The second contains the draft of B4. Please circulate this to your WP Task leaders and partners as you see fit. All comments need to be with us by noon on February 23. Use the track changes function or mark changes with colour. We will circulate B6 (Management) and B8 (First 18 month implementation) early next week. A few remarks: - We have positive answers from the key US and Canadian associated scientists we listed in London. They will be listed in B5. - Please help with B1. This is the most critical part for the evaluation. - B3: list the key national and international programmes. - B4. I have only done very minor changes to what was sent. We need to thoroughly go through both the science, the deliverables and the linkages between WP. The introduction to this chapter is new. WP8 - I have entered a few suggestions in blue. We need to put the BCCR elements in, but haven´t had time yet. - Provide key references. And anything else which will help. As you will see we have not bothered about consistent formatting now, since we anticipate lots of changes. This will de done in the last phase, so don´t worry about this now. But good ideas on presentation are of course welcome. All in all we are on track. The last weeks will be hectic, but we´ll get it in in good shape. Cheers, Eystein -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ----------------------- The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students More info at: [1]www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------- GOOSSE Hugues [2]http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/users/hgs/index.html Institut dAstronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Université catholique de Louvain , Chemin du cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium e-mail: hgs@astr.ucl.ac.be Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\B4_1_UCL-ASTR.1.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\IMPRINT_St2_B1-3_UCL_ASTR.1.doc" 1586. 2005-02-22 14:37:29 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, masson@dsm-mail.saclay.cea.fr, Laurent.Labeyrie@lsce.cnrs-gif.fr, Elsa.Cortijo@lsce.cnrs-gif.fr, hutterli@climate.unibe.ch, wanner@giub.unibe.ch, juerg@giub.unibe.ch, karin@natgeo.su.se, eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, ddj@gfy.ku.dk, sigfus@gfy.ku.dk, guiot@cerege.fr, esper@wsl.ch, frank@wsl.ch, eavaganov@forest.akadem.ru, antti.ojala@gsf.fi, r.battarbee@geog.ucl.ac.uk, j.holmes@ucl.ac.uk, brazdil@sci.muni.cz, jerome@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr, barbante@unive.it, shishov@forest.akadem.ru, A.Lotter@bio.uu.nl, dirk.verschuren@UGent.be, carin.andersson@geo.uib.no, John.Birks@bot.uib.no, dan.charman@plymouth.ac.uk, juerg.beer@eawag.ch, Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 14:37:29 +0100 from: Hubertus Fischer subject: Re: IMPRINT task 1.1 budget must be cut to: Tim Osborn Dear Tim and Manuel, thanks for the info. I think you are right that we have to cut into the flesh. By the way please note that the AWI numbers did not include the 20% overhead so the number in your spreadsheet effectively represents a 20% budget cut which I accept to do my share. Now to the cutting: a) An obvious cut for task 1.1 are archives which do not fulfil our requirement of (near)annual resolution. There are still speleothems mentioned in the task description, do they really fulfil that criterion? b) For the last 2000 years the analysis of the NGRIP ice core may be questioned because for that time period we have other Greenland cores. However, we HAVE to have this record for task 1.2 and 1.5 anyway and since the costs are split across the tasks and we cannot inflate the other tasks, I would strongly argue not to touch it. But I cannot judge from my viewpoint where other communities and groups plan to acquire new data. Please reconsider your plans with respect to that. c) All the groups have to reconsider whether the amount of money they asked for is really needed or could be reduced. In case of AWI with the effective 20% budget reduction the limit is reached, sorry. Cheers Hubertus ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Osborn Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2005 10:41 am Subject: IMPRINT task 1.1 budget must be cut > Dear all, > > URGENT! > > the attached spreadsheet shows the latest task 1.1 budget. I > realised that > it is necessary to separate out the travel/consumables/equipment > associated > with just this task (Oyvind's spreadsheet just allowed for a total > across > the workpackage for those headings). The new spreadsheet shows > only the > task 1.1 costs. Some people followed Oyvind's spreadsheet and > gave only > totals for the WP1, but I have split these proportionally > according to how > many tasks those partners were involved in. Please adjust your > total if > necessary! > > I have cut out the GKT varved lake work as that is moved to task > 1.2, > reducing cost by 68k. > > I have moved UMB (Milano) to CONISMA (Roma) and dropped the > stratigraphy > work (leaving only half of the dust size work in task 1.1), > reducing cost > by about 40k. > > I have reduced UEA budget by 20k. > > I have reduced UNIBE budget by 15k (as suggested by Manuel). > > I have reduced UBERN budget by about 30k (as agreed by Juerg, to > focus on > Europe not NH). > > I have reduced MU budget by 15k (as agreed by Rudolf, to focus on > documentary data only). > > I have reduced WSL budget by 48k (reduced work on European > dendroarcheological sources from 12 months to 6 months), but moved > the > Moroccan tree-ring work from task 1.4 to 1.1. > > Total staff costs look to be 1 mEuro, but total task cost is 1.23 > mEuro > when travel, consumables and equipment are included. Keith and > Valerie > need us to reduce this to 0.9 mEuro total! > > We cannot do this by trimming round the edges - there needs to be > a cut in > the deliverables. Please make suggestions to me and Manuel. > > Cheers > > Tim > Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 3667. 2005-02-22 17:25:51 ______________________________________________________ cc: domraynaud@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr date: Tue Feb 22 17:25:51 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: URGENT huge cuts to be made in IMPRINT WP1 to: Chappellaz Jerome , Valerie Masson-Delmotte , Hubertus Fischer , petit Thank you for these sacrifices. We genuinely are attempting to keep the balance on Science and prioritize data production most likely to be compatible with the model comparison aspect - the forcing side we have tried to protect . If it is possible , I see the value of the methane gradient work , but this must rest with Jurg and Hubertus. From our part in task 1.1 we will remove the dust work - and support strongly any initiatives to support it elsewhere (as a collaboration with IMPRINT ) if you propose it. thanks again Keith At 16:51 22/02/2005, Chappellaz Jerome wrote: A 17:24 22/02/2005 +0100, Valerie Masson-Delmotte a écrit : Dear all, We are in big trouble for IMPRINT WP1 budget. We are 25% over the upper limit for WP1. We will defend the forcing reconstruction as a key priority and therefore have to take about 300 keuros out of task 1.1. As for task 1.1, the dilemna is the largest. If you look at the full proposal it is really structured to propose revised regional and hemispheric temperature changes. It is crucial to include there mainly calibrated and annual dated proxies which can also be compared to the model results. We have already argued about this but Keith and I really think that without climate simulations including dust or even including a realistic representation of polar vortex it will be difficult to make the dust reconstruction a central point of the project. Do you think that it is possible to take the dust work out of IMPRINT at this stage? If we do not do it then typically the tree ring work cannot be done. We would like to hear from you about this urgently. Dear Valérie, If the degree of prioritizing reaches this level, I don't see how we can keep the pressure on the interest of dust size distribution and its striking link with solar variability... I know that you are among the person who understands the interest of such data. Note that cutting this will also mean to cut the Italian contribution (CONISMA, formerly UNIMIB). I expect you and Keith to look at the end at the equilibrium between disciplines within WP1 so that after such cut the ice input to WP1 do not become ridiculous. Not to speak about the share of national contributions... For your information, I took the yet-unconstrained decision to remove our input on the CH4 gradient from task 1.5. Which means that for LGGE today, remains in WP1 only the activity related with the volcanic forcing, through the sulphur isotope pionneering work, on which I expect no more further cuts. On the other hand I expect that other partners remain honest in their request and also accept to make cuts where it's not absolutely first priority. All the best, Jérôme ___________________________________________________________________________________ Jérôme Chappellaz Directeur adjoint Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement ([1]LGGE, UMR 5183 CNRS-UJF) 54 rue Molière - Domaine Universitaire - BP 96 - 38402 St Martin d'Hères Cedex, FRANCE Tel : +33 (0) 4 76 82 42 64 - Fax: +33 (0) 4 76 82 42 01 chappellaz@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr ; direction@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr [2]LGGE gas team web site Want to know about climate, past, present and future ? : Visit the [3]PAGES web site -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1198. 2005-02-22 23:35:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, frank@wsl.ch date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 23:35:37 +0100 from: jan.esper@wsl.ch to: osborn@uea.ac.uk Hi Tim You might sense that I am not very happy with the cut of 48k, but I also get the impression that you are quite under pressure with this budget. Anyway, if you think we should further reduce, then I guess, I cannot just say "no". So, I suggest that you reduce our budget now down to 130k, which I believe was mentioned for the WSL right from the beginning for WP1. Hope this is now fine. About Valerie, yes within Isonet there is going to be a ca. 400-year isotope record from Col du Sard (using 4 trees I believe). We have 400 cores (covering all age classes) from the middle and high Atlas ready for analysis. You can imagine that we can use all this material to come up with quite conclusive ideas about the long-term evolution of climate in Morocco. Please let me know, if you need further information about our intentions. I somehow disagree with you that the study on low-frequency variations in tree-ring data should be limited (to UEA), and believe that you had to argue this way just because of budgeting reasons. Anyway, I think that we should take the chance and collaborate with you, Keith and Tom, if you are interested (even if Imprint is not funded...). Hope this is the last cutting round for now, and that we can get back to science soon. I am just hating these money issues, and believe that all this must bother you too. Best wishes Jan Cc D Frank K Briffa Delivered-To: esper@wsl.ch Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 09:41:43 +0000 To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,masson@lsce.saclay.cea.fr, Laurent.Labeyrie@lsce.cnrs-gif.fr,Elsa.Cortijo@lsce.cnrs-gif.fr, hutterli@climate.unibe.ch,wanner@giub.unibe.ch,juerg@giub.unibe.ch, karin@natgeo.su.se,eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de,ddj@gfy.ku.dk,sigfus@gfy.ku.dk, guiot@cerege.fr,esper@wsl.ch,frank@wsl.ch,eavaganov@forest.akadem.ru, antti.ojala@gsf.fi,r.battarbee@geog.ucl.ac.uk,j.holmes@ucl.ac.uk, brazdil@sci.muni.cz,jerome@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr,barbante@unive.it, shishov@forest.akadem.ru,karin@natgeo.su.se,A.Lotter@bio.uu.nl, dirk.verschuren@UGent.be,carin.andersson@geo.uib.no, John.Birks@bot.uib.no,dan.charman@plymouth.ac.uk,juerg.beer@eawag.ch, Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk From: Tim Osborn Subject: IMPRINT task 1.1 budget must be cut X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-WSL-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-WSL-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-WSL-MailScanner-SpamCheck: not spam, SpamAssassin (score=-3.062, required 6, BAYES_00 -4.90, MIME_MISSING_BOUNDARY 1.84) X-MailScanner-From: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Dear all, URGENT! the attached spreadsheet shows the latest task 1.1 budget. I realised that it is necessary to separate out the travel/consumables/equipment associated with just this task (Oyvind's spreadsheet just allowed for a total across the workpackage for those headings). The new spreadsheet shows only the task 1.1 costs. Some people followed Oyvind's spreadsheet and gave only totals for the WP1, but I have split these proportionally according to how many tasks those partners were involved in. Please adjust your total if necessary! I have cut out the GKT varved lake work as that is moved to task 1.2, reducing cost by 68k. I have moved UMB (Milano) to CONISMA (Roma) and dropped the stratigraphy work (leaving only half of the dust size work in task 1.1), reducing cost by about 40k. I have reduced UEA budget by 20k. I have reduced UNIBE budget by 15k (as suggested by Manuel). I have reduced UBERN budget by about 30k (as agreed by Juerg, to focus on Europe not NH). I have reduced MU budget by 15k (as agreed by Rudolf, to focus on documentary data only). I have reduced WSL budget by 48k (reduced work on European dendroarcheological sources from 12 months to 6 months), but moved the Moroccan tree-ring work from task 1.4 to 1.1. Total staff costs look to be 1 mEuro, but total task cost is 1.23 mEuro when travel, consumables and equipment are included. Keith and Valerie need us to reduce this to 0.9 mEuro total! We cannot do this by trimming round the edges - there needs to be a cut in the deliverables. Please make suggestions to me and Manuel. Cheers Tim #Attachment converted: MacEsper:Budget_task_level_osborn_ 1.xls (XLS4/XCEL) (00117993) Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This message was sent using IMP (http://horde.org/imp/) at WSL (http://www.wsl.ch). 3811. 2005-02-23 08:20:18 ______________________________________________________ cc: imprint-ssc@bjerknes.uib.no, erick.larson@fa.uib.no date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 08:20:18 +0100 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Re: travel, workshops,management to: Keith Briffa Keith and other SCC members. The budget squeeze is problematic and we face the problem of meeting the reality of doing what we were told to do: establish one large paleo project that showed the community could team up, avoid being split up in several projects with different foci, and then adjusting this to the level of funding the EU will be able to provide, which is probbaly 50% less than what the project really needs. I appreciate all the problems you are faced with. With respect to travels, I think one travel per year of 1-2 kEuros, depending on where people live, for the PI and those employed in a Task to do the job is reasonable. This allows participation in key workshops and/or international meetings when science is ready for presentation and dissemination, for the duration of the period the Task is being performed. If there are excessive travel requests, they need to be cut. If not now, then they will be in the contract negotiations when we trim the budget for each partner to get to the budget we have been given by the EU. Thus we should not do too much micro-management of budgets now, since all items and all partners will be revisited in the contracts phase anyhow, but exsessive demands need be dealt with. In terms of management: There are two management aspects: 1. The science management. 2. The project management, including financial matters, reporting etc. What you ask for concerns 1. As I indicated in the meeting in London, I think it is fair to support the work of the WP leaders/co-leaders of WP 1-4 and 6,7 with science management resources. My indication then was about 1 month/year for the duration of the WP. If we assume that each has a lifetime of 3 years , this amounts to 36 months of salary. My thinking is that we need to distinguish science management from Project management - project office etc. This will also help balancing the management costs and avoid having inflated "office-costs", and show that we prioritise having science done. And for that we also need science management to support your work in efectively leading the WP to reach their objectives. Thus the best thing is to add 1 month to your institution´s budgets per year for a three year period, justified as WP scientific management. This can be accomodated by increasing the overall WP budgets accordingly. Hence, do not ban these costs, but add them to the grand total of the WP. I will then reduce the central management budget accordingly, and let this only deal with running the project office, centrally funded meetings and take care of the "mercantile" management. Workshops We need to detail how workshops are funded. There will be some workshops that are for all partners, only a few. Then we have the workshops to integrate data, which is particularly intense in WP 1. Particuarly in WP 1, these also involve people from outside the consortium. I think some workshop support needs to come from the central budget. I don´t think we are at the level ofdetail which makes it possible to identify excactly what we need outside of the first 18 months. Given the importance and the magnitude of the WP 1 data gathering efforts, and the tight squeeze on budgets, I am inclined to say that the data gathering workshops needed in the first half should be funded outside of the WP 1 budget of 3.7 mill. We can detail how this is done later, whether by moving costs or inside the management budget. Hope this clarifies some things. Comments welcome. I am available on mobile phone today 9-12 and after 6 PM (+47906 18 858) for discussions. Central Europe time. best wishes, Eystein >Oyvind >it is clear that we need some general formula >for working out the travel, management costs. >People have used random numbers . We are having >to make hard cuts - and there is no room for >random, inflated or unreasonable costs for the >above. We do not know how this has been handled >across WPs >but I feel you need to specify a standard amount >for institutional travel , that will be balanced >by the use of carefully chosen locations for >meetings. >Also what can be included as management costs? >In the situation we find ourselves in , real >management costs should be born by the >management budget - so do we have a rule to ban >these across the WP costs? If we do this in WP1 >, it should be likewise elsewhere. Where people >need resources to pay salaries , this should >take preference. >Also we have insufficient funds for holding >"workshops" - so a random approach to these must >also be avoided . Can the database WP pay for >these? We need at least 1 per task , and at >least 1 large one across tasks in WP1 . We have >no money for radiocarbon dates as far as I can >see - so where will these come from. We are >reducing the budget as you instructed , but this >must be helped by answers to the questions >above. Thanks >Keith > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ----------------------- The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students More info at: www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 555. 2005-02-23 12:29:03 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Folland, Chris" , Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, Keith Briffa , "Brohan, Philip" , Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:29:03 +0100 from: Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de subject: Re: FW: More on the "Hocky Stick" to: "Tett, Simon" Simon, I think one should list three publications which have stirred some disucsions, namely ours, the one by Anders Moberg and colleagues and Steve Mcintyre's in GRL. I would assign the following significance ot these articles (just among us, please): -- ours: methodical basis for hockey stick reconstruction is weak; discussion was unwisely limited by IPCC declaring MBH to be "true". (Stupid, politicized action by IPCC, not MBH's responsbilkity. IPCC did one more of these silly oversellings - by showing the damage curve by Munich Re without proper caveat in the fig caption); -- Moberg: an alternative suggestion - this may turn out to be more or lesa accurate at a later time, but it is at least a serious hypothesis, which is consistent with the independent bore hole reconstruction and our model simulations. -- Mc&Mc: As far as I can say (we did not redo the analysis, but Francis Zwires did) the identfied glitch is real. One should not do it this way. HOWEVER, we have tested the implication of this unwise set up in the logic of ERIK, and we found that it does not matter in this setup (see attachment, submitted to GRL). I should also mention the Crok analysis - Crok is a Dutch journalist who researched the whole field quite extensively. It turns out that the social process, within which the MBH / Mc&Mc drama evolved, was certainy not geared twowards best science, but towards defending turfs and claims. I have pdf's of all these articles; if you need them, let me know. I do not know what the status f gerd Bürger's paper is, but I find it relevant - demonstrating that we still have many things to think about. Does this help? Cheers Hans Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center Max-Planck-Strasse 1, 21502 GEESTHACHT, Germany ph: +49 4152 87 1831, fx: +49 4152 87 2832 mobile: + 49 171 212 2046 http://w3g.gkss.de/staff/storch; storch@gkss.de "Tett, Simon" 21.02.2005 23:53 To Keith Briffa , Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, "Folland, Chris" cc "Brohan, Philip" Subject FW: More on the "Hocky Stick" Keith/Hans/Chris, Defra do ask the impossible! Can you help me? Are there other papers I should be aware of? Hans/Chris are the statistical criticisms of Mackintyre and McKitrick OK? Philip -- do you have any thoughts? [Beyond that the paleo community cannot do stats!] (Keith/Hans we can claim to the EU that SOAP is informing policy now!) Simon Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org -----Original Message----- From: Johnson, Cathy (GA) [mailto:Cathy.Johnson@defra.gsi.gov.uk] Sent: 21 February 2005 14:16 To: 'Simon Tett' Cc: Warrilow, David (GA); Oliver, Sophia (GA); 'Vicky Pope' Subject: RE: More on the "Hocky Stick" Dear Simon Thank you for bringing this to our attention. As there have been a number of developments in this area lately, we would find it very useful to have a short briefing note (1 page maximum) summarising the present state of knowledge. Please can you prepare one for us? It should cover: Mackintyre and McKitrick's criticism of Mann et al (from a year or two ago) von Storch et al's critique of Mann et al Mackintyre and McKitrick's latest criticism of Mann et al the new paper from Moberg et al anything else you think we should be aware of a summing up many thanks Cathy -----Original Message----- From: Simon Tett [mailto:simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk] Sent: Wednesday, February 09, 2005 1:19 PM To: Johnson, Cathy (GA) Cc: Vicky Pope; Tim Osborn; Keith Briffa; Chris Folland; Simon Tett Subject: More on the "Hocky Stick" Cathy, Tomorrow Nature is publishing a paper, by Moberg and others, called "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data". It reconstructs past temperature variability from 200 AD to present and finds much higher variability than is in the Mann "Hocky Stick". They claim that temperatures around 1000 to 1100 are roughly the same as the 20th century prior to 1990. Moberg et al combine data from low temporal resolution proxies (Ice cores, ocean sediments and others) with high-resolution proxies (mainly tree-ring data). Tree rings have problems estimating low-frequency temperature variability due to the need to correct for tree growth. So they time-filter the tree-ring data to remove low frequencies and combine this with the low frequency variability. However, Tim Osborn and Keith Briffa (who know much much more than I do about proxy reconstructions) have grave reservations about the paper's methodology. Their main concern is how the low-resolution data was calibrated in order to convert changes in the proxy to changes in temperature. The supplementary information to the paper (which is not available to us right now) may reassure them (or may reinforce their views). yours Simon P.S. If you want to discuss more then I am in Exeter today/Thursday and can be contacted on 01392 886886 -- Simon Tett Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes. The original of this email was scanned for viruses by the Government Secure Intranet (GSi) virus scanning service supplied exclusively by Energis in partnership with MessageLabs. On leaving the GSi this email was certified virus-free Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\mcintyre.comment.pdf" 2813. 2005-02-23 13:03:13 ______________________________________________________ cc: mlsa@gfy.ku.dk, bigler@gfy.ku.dk, jps@gfy.ku.dk, ch@gfy.ku.dk, as@gfy.ku.dk date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:03:13 +0100 from: "Dorthe D. Jensen" subject: partner 37, UC overview - Dorthe Dahl-Jensen to: masson@dsm-mail.saclay.cea.fr, stocker@climate.unibe.ch, hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de, valter maggi , beaufort@cerege.fr, "Joan O. Grimalt" , Denis-Didier Rousseau , c.tzedakis@geog.leeds.ac.uk, barbante@unive.it, Ralph Schneider , Øyvind Paasche , Eystein Jansen , Ralph Schneider , "Eric W Wolff" , Maria Sanchez Goni , "Dorthe D. Jensen" , Hall@cardiff.ac.uk, Elsa Cortijo , Frank Sirocko , Chappellaz Jerome , Keith Briffa , hufischer@awi-bremerhaven.de, colin.prentice@bristol.ac.uk, Manuel Hutterli , , , Colin.Prentice@bristol.ac.uk, barbante@unive.it, Juerg Beer , Fortunat Joos , Imprint-WP4 , "Crucifix, Michel" , "Jones, Chris D" , "Hewitt, Chris" , sigfus@gfy.ku.sk, kka@gfy.ku.dk Dear all I have tried to take the newest numbers from the WP's we (UC, partner 37) are involved in. I have adjusted the numbers in our budgets so they agree with the negations between all. I have summarized the numbers here below so they fit into the tabels Eystein and Oyvind need. I hope the form is OK - I would find it troublesome to get the full tabels from all with only one column filled out - but if you prefer this pls let me know. Do we need to update the exel-sheets as well?? A few comments to the WP and task leaders: 1.2 (Lotter) I have kept 10 KEuros as consumables - until the issue is solved. WP2 (Jerome) The salary is 151 KEuro in 2.2 - I have transferred the difference between the figure used by you (170 KEuro) and the new one to consumables so the sum still is 190 KEuro for WP2 for UC (partner 37 not 39) WP4: I have split the 18 KEuro allocated to us up on consumables under the tasks and travels. Here are the overall figures (detailed task budget attached): WP1: Personal: 1.1 (0) 1.2 (37.7 KEuro) 1.3 (0) 1.4 (0) 1.5 (37.7 KEuro) Total person months: 45 (this is from permanent staff, if post doc is to included add 12 months) Travels: 11.6 KEuro Consumables: 49.6 KEuro (includes publication charges, audit certificate) SUM 136.6 KEuro (first 18 months: 79.0 KEuro) WP2: Personal: 2.1 (0) 2.2 (151 KEuro) 2.3 (0) Total person months: 40 (this is from permanent staff, if post doc is to included add 24 months) Travels: 12 KEuro Consumables: 27 KEuro (includes publication charges, audit certificate) SUM: 190 KEuro (first 18 months: 100.0 KEuro) WP4: Personal: non for any of the tasks Total person months: 14 (this is from permanent staff) Travels: 6 KEuro Consumables: 12 KEuro (includes publication charges, audit certificate) SUM: 18 KEuro (first 18 months: 7.2 KEuro) Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\CPH-budget-230205.doc" 437. 2005-02-23 13:07:13 ______________________________________________________ cc: Myles Allen , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Keith Briffa date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:07:13 -0500 (EST) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and to: Martin Juckes Hi all, WIthout having looked at the proposal (my home day today, so can 't look), I have already looked into scaling various reconstructions with a nonbiased technique (tls), and find that it makes some difference particularly to records that don't correlate magnificently with the target of reconstruction. So my hope is to sell this as part of the plan, and write it up. But there also seems a real difference, Mann and jones for example even if tls scaled has less variance than Esper et al. because in that reconstruction, the early 20th century is probably the strongest excursion, while in Esper et al earlier variability is stronger. So there still is real differences in record. so what I hope to add to the proposal is stuff I have already well started, but needs to be checked more systematically, and written up). Tom and I also have a new reconstruciton taht is submitted for publication (apart from one last iteration with Cos) with tls and is quite similar to Moberg et al Gabi On Wed, 23 Feb 2005, Martin Juckes wrote: > > Hello, > > I've finally got around to sketching a rough plan of objectives and > deliverables. Given the small amount of money and the specific aims > there is not much room for innovative thinking, but hopefully the > work done within the poroject will be helpful to work which people > are already doing. > > Essentially, I'm proposing to assemble/get hold of a representative > proxy database and run a representative set of reconstruction methods > on the same data. > > The proposal has to be submitted before Thursday, March 10, so we have > two weeks to come up with it. > > A rough outline is attached. > > Martin > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- 4166. 2005-02-23 13:17:29 ______________________________________________________ cc: , date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:17:29 +0000 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re:workshops -URGENT to: "Michael Diepenbroek" , "'Eystein Jansen'" Michael we are in serious problem with budget in WP1 - can your budget strectch to a series of workshops (Eystein has said some might be centrally funded , but we would be helped if we could refund some also from WP5 - and especially. This could be "consultancy" money that we have chopeed that was going to pay for data providers. Even 100K E would be a help. KeithAt 07:53 23/02/2005, Michael Diepenbroek wrote: >Hi Eystein, Keith, >we could move the data gathering workshops to WP 5. I remember that this >was discussed before. >Michael > > > >Dr. Michael Diepenbroek >WDC-MARE / PANGAEA - www.pangaea.de >_____________________________________________ >MARUM - Institute for Marine Environmental Sciences >University Bremen >POP 330 440 >28359 Bremen >Phone ++49 421 218-65590, Fax ++49 421 218-9570 >IP Phone ++49 421 57 282 970 >e-mail mdiepenbroek@pangaea.de > > > > > -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- > > Von: Eystein Jansen [mailto:eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no] > > Gesendet: Mittwoch, 23. Februar 2005 08:20 > > An: Keith Briffa > > Cc: imprint-ssc@bjerknes.uib.no; erick.larson@fa.uib.no > > Betreff: Re: travel, workshops,management > > > > Keith and other SCC members. > > > > The budget squeeze is problematic and we face > > the problem of meeting the reality of doing what > > we were told to do: establish one large paleo > > project that showed the community could team up, > > avoid being split up in several projects with > > different foci, and then adjusting this to the > > level of funding the EU will be able to provide, > > which is probbaly 50% less than what the project > > really needs. > > > > I appreciate all the problems you are faced with. > > > > With respect to travels, I think one travel per > > year of 1-2 kEuros, depending on where people > > live, for the PI and those employed in a Task > > to do the job is reasonable. This allows > > participation in key workshops and/or > > international meetings when science is ready for > > presentation and dissemination, for the duration > > of the period the Task is being performed. > > If there are excessive travel requests, they need > > to be cut. If not now, then they will be in the > > contract negotiations when we trim the budget > > for each partner to get to the budget we have > > been given by the EU. Thus we should not do too > > much micro-management of budgets now, since all > > items and all partners will be revisited in the > > contracts phase anyhow, but exsessive demands > > need be dealt with. > > > > In terms of management: > > There are two management aspects: > > 1. The science management. > > 2. The project management, including financial matters, reporting >etc. > > > > What you ask for concerns 1. As I indicated in > > the meeting in London, I think it is fair to > > support the work of the WP leaders/co-leaders of > > WP 1-4 and 6,7 with science management > > resources. My indication then was about 1 > > month/year for the duration of the WP. If we > > assume that each has a lifetime of 3 years , > > this amounts to 36 months of salary. My > > thinking is that we need to distinguish science > > management from Project management - project > > office etc. This will also help balancing the > > management costs and avoid having inflated > > "office-costs", and show that we prioritise > > having science done. And for that we also need > > science management to support your work in > > efectively leading the WP to reach their > > objectives. > > Thus the best thing is to add 1 month to your > > institution´s budgets per year for a three year > > period, justified as WP scientific management. > > This can be accomodated by increasing the > > overall WP budgets accordingly. Hence, do not ban > > these costs, but add them to the grand total of > > the WP. I will then reduce the central > > management budget accordingly, and let this only > > deal with running the project office, centrally > > funded meetings and take care of the "mercantile" > > management. > > > > Workshops > > We need to detail how workshops are funded. > > There will be some workshops that are for all > > partners, only a few. > > Then we have the workshops to integrate data, > > which is particularly intense in WP 1. > > Particuarly in WP 1, these also involve people > > from outside the consortium. > > I think some workshop support needs to come from > > the central budget. I don´t think we are at the > > level ofdetail which makes it possible to > > identify excactly what we need outside of the > > first 18 months. Given the importance and the > > magnitude of the WP 1 data gathering efforts, > > and the tight squeeze on budgets, I am inclined > > to say that the data gathering workshops needed > > in the first half should be funded outside of > > the WP 1 budget of 3.7 mill. We can detail how > > this is done later, whether by moving costs or > > inside the management budget. > > > > Hope this clarifies some things. Comments welcome. > > > > I am available on mobile phone today 9-12 and > > after 6 PM (+47906 18 858) for discussions. > > Central Europe time. > > > > best wishes, > > Eystein > > > > > > > > > > > > >Oyvind > > >it is clear that we need some general formula > > >for working out the travel, management costs. > > >People have used random numbers . We are having > > >to make hard cuts - and there is no room for > > >random, inflated or unreasonable costs for the > > >above. We do not know how this has been handled > > >across WPs > > >but I feel you need to specify a standard amount > > >for institutional travel , that will be balanced > > >by the use of carefully chosen locations for > > >meetings. > > >Also what can be included as management costs? > > >In the situation we find ourselves in , real > > >management costs should be born by the > > >management budget - so do we have a rule to ban > > >these across the WP costs? If we do this in WP1 > > >, it should be likewise elsewhere. Where people > > >need resources to pay salaries , this should > > >take preference. > > >Also we have insufficient funds for holding > > >"workshops" - so a random approach to these must > > >also be avoided . Can the database WP pay for > > >these? We need at least 1 per task , and at > > >least 1 large one across tasks in WP1 . We have > > >no money for radiocarbon dates as far as I can > > >see - so where will these come from. We are > > >reducing the budget as you instructed , but this > > >must be helped by answers to the questions > > >above. Thanks > > >Keith > > > > > >-- > > >Professor Keith Briffa, > > >Climatic Research Unit > > >University of East Anglia > > >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > > > > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 > > >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > > > > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > > > > > > -- > > ______________________________________________________________ > > Eystein Jansen > > Professor/Director > > Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and > > Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen > > Allégaten 55 > > N-5007 Bergen > > NORWAY > > e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no > > Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 > > Fax: +47-55-584330 > > ----------------------- > > The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD >students > > More info at: www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts > > >------------------------------------------------------------------------ >---- -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3799. 2005-02-23 13:43:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: Fortunat Joos , Imprint-WP4 , "Crucifix, Michel" , "Jones, Chris D" , "Hewitt, Chris" , Keith Briffa date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 13:43:01 +0000 from: "Tett, Simon" subject: Re: Issues to resolve to: Victor Brovkin The impression I got was that including C14 in Hadley models was fairly easy. You would need to define source (solar) at oceanic surface. The C14 flux could be assumed constant (and well mixed) across the atmosphere. We get this from the Be10 data. After that C14 is a tracer (which decays). Total time to implement 1 month or so. I have no feeling for proxies but had the impression that there was a lot of C14 data around..... My worry is trying to do both O18 and C13. Both are tricky and would need more than 6 months between them. Note we all have to do these proxies in the same way so might not be able to use our existing code. My feeling is that for the last 1000 years O18 is the most important and we should all say we will do that in the same way. C14 is easy so might as well do that as well. We can add that we will use existing implementations of C13 -- which requires no resources from IMPRINT. Anyone have any comments. Simon On Wed, 2005-02-23 at 13:17, Victor Brovkin wrote: > Simon, > > we've discussed 14C as a proxy with Fortunat but haven't come to the > decision whether to include it into task 4.2 and the proxy table or > not. Obviously, we have 14C in the models already, so the only work > will be with proxy protocol for oceanic 14C that is easy to take from > OCMIP. However, we need to explain where exaclty in the proposal we > will use 14C. One point would be in task 4.6 (THC) where 14C could be > used as a ventilation proxy but we already have 231Pa/230Th for this > purpose. Another suggestion would be to use simulated atm.14C as a > proxy for solar activity (solving inverse task with boundary condition > from observed atm. 14C) but then we need mentioning of this work in > the other tasks (WP1) that deal with using Be for solar activity. So, > we need further integration of 14C into the proposal text and it might > be not enough time now. Also, we might get critisized for dilluting > rather thin personal resources among too many proxy developments. > > What do you think? > > Victor > > > > > > > Tett, Simon wrote: > > On Wed, 2005-02-23 at 08:16, joos wrote: > > > > > Dear Simon, > > > > > > Thanks for working on this. > > > > > > 14C as a proxy: > > > Viktor, we forgot 14C in the proxy table. Need to add this. Bern may > > > coordinate the proxy protocol. Please modify proxy tables and others > > > please indicate whether you do 14C in your model. > > > For the Bern model> 14C: +++ > > > > > I am concerned that with limited resources we are trying to do too many > > proxies. (6 months effort would allow about 2 to be implemented...) > > > > > 4.3: > > > I am wondering if we do not need to cover 'the medieval warm period', > > > e.g. starting at 800 or 850 AD with the GCMs. Anyway, just a thought. > > > > > To do it well we'd need to start the simulations 100-200 years earlier > > (to let the upper-ocean adjust) -- requiring 1500 years of simulation > > (600-2100). If we started at 1000 (so we could discuss 1200 on) we would > > only require 1100 years of simulation (and 800 years of high resoln > > proxy records). > > > > > 4.3, 4.4 and 4.6 > > > In Bern we will look with the fast model at CO2, CH4, d13C and 14C (atm, > > > ocean, land), pollen, ocean 18O, ocean 231Pa/230Th, %CaCO3 as > > > appropriate within each task. > > > > > Is there enough resource to implement the proxies in a consistent way. > > Is pollen interactive or offline calculations? > > > > > 4.4 > > > - CO2: in all fast models > > > - CH4: Bristol, Bern, PIK? > > > > > I think that Hadley might be able to do CH4 from wetlands -- is that > > sufficient. Michael/Chris(es) can you advise? > > > > > > > - in selected fast models (see proxy table): d13C and 14C > > > (atm,ocean,land), pollen, %CaCO3. > > > - GCM snapshots: pollen > > > (I do not think that we can do more with the GCMs given the > > > intialisation problem with biogeochemical cycles) > > > > > Can we do something clever to get round this? -- some kind of > > control/perturbation experiment. > > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > > Fortunat > > > > > > "Tett, Simon" wrote: > > > > > > > All, > > > > thanks for your input so far! I need a bit more from you. > > > > > > > > 1) Can I have a description of your models for the table in WP4. (Please > > > > could Bristol and BCCR fill in the table). > > > > > > > > 2) BCCR -- can you you clarify what proxies you plan to simulated and > > > > fill in the table in 4.2. > > > > > > > > > > > > 3) All -- We need to firm up the following. > > > > 1) Need some thoughts on what our protocol will be -- are you > > > > all happy with the current text? > > > > I think task 4.6/WP3 needs some early experiments to > > > > identify the hot spots. > > > > GCM simulations should be limited to the last 1000 years -- > > > > which has some issues for WP1 [Keith would this reduce your budget > > > > sensibly if you talked about the last 1000 years at high spatial resoln] > > > > Need to firm up the snap shot simulations -- what do they bring > > > > to the project.... > > > > 2) Need a minimum set of proxies that all of us will implement. > > > > Given the (limited) resources we have can I suggest the following. > > > > a) For models in 4.3 ("recent Holocene") we need delta > > > > 18 0, 14 C (as it tells us something for ocean proxies) and maybe 13 C > > > > (though this will be a challenge on the resources available). I am very > > > > open to guidance from those of you with more expertise than me. > > > > b) Not sure about the other tasks but could task leaders give me > > > > views on what proxies are key to their needs. Jerome can I have some > > > > text on your ice sheet modelling -- other 4.5 modellers can you think > > > > how to integrate with that work. > > > > > > > > 4) Gilles -- can I have some text for 4.6 with deliverables. > > > > > > > > Simon > > > > > > > > Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. > > > > Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) > > > > Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB > > > > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 > > > > Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 > > > > E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > > > Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > > > Name: imprint_wp4.doc > > > > Type: Microsoft Word Document (application/msword) > > > > imprint_wp4.doc Encoding: BASE64 > > > > Description: imprint_wp4.doc > > > > Download Status: Not downloaded with message > > > > > > > > > > > -- > +-----------------------------------------------------+ > | Dr. V. Brovkin | > | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | > | Climate Systems Research Department | > | P.O.Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany | > | Tel.: +49 331 288 2592 | > | Fax: +49 331 288 2570 | > | e-mail: victor@pik-potsdam.de | > +-----------------------------------------------------+ 4046. 2005-02-23 15:37:43 ______________________________________________________ cc: , , "Philip Newton" date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 15:37:43 +0000 from: "Andy Parsons" subject: Palaeoclimate Change: High-latitudes & Ocean Circulation to: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Palaeoclimate Change: High-latitudes & Ocean Circulation * Thursday 2nd and Friday 3rd June 2005 * The Geological Society of London, Burlington House The full list of invited speakers is now available on the Conference website: http://www.nerc.ac.uk/funding/earthsci/iodpconference.shtml Hosted by the UK Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP), NERC with sponsorship from IMAGES, The Tyndall Centre, RAPID, Geotek Ltd., Statoil, BP and Exxon Mobil International. Organisers: Paul Wilson (Southampton Oceanography Centre, paw1@soc.soton.ac.uk ) Ian Hall (Cardiff, hall@cardiff.ac.uk ), Mike Bickle (Cambridge) and Juergen Thurow (UCL) The aim of the meeting is to bring together the UK community in the broad field of Palaeoceanography & Palaeoclimate Change to discuss exciting new results emerging from recent initiatives (e.g., IODP drilling in the Arctic (http://www.rcom-bremen.de/English/ACEX_Press_Release_16._Nov._2004.html), IMAGES, RAPID) aimed at improving our understanding of extreme and rapid changes in Earth's past climate, with special emphasis on the high latitudes and ocean circulation. This two-day meeting will take the same form as the 2001 William Smith Meeting of the Geological Society and consist of a series of invited 30 min lectures from senior overseas and UK scientists. For further details and registration please visit the conference website. Please also note June 2nd & 3rd in your diary & check out the poster; http://www.nerc.ac.uk/funding/earthsci/documents/arctic_meeting_pos.jpg If you have further questions about the event please contact Charlotte Dew at NERC (IODPJUN05@nerc.ac.uk ), Paul Wilson (paw1@soc.soton.ac.uk ) or Ian Hall (hall@cardiff.ac.uk ). ---- Dr. Andy Parsons RAPID Programme Administrator Natural Environment Research Council Polaris House North Star Avenue Swindon SN2 1EU Tel +44 (0)1793 411679 Mobile: +44 (0)7881 845111 Fax +44 (0)1793 411545 andy.parsons@nerc.ac.uk The information contained in this email may be subject to public disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act 2000. Unless the information is legally exempt from disclosure, the confidentiality of this email and your reply cannot be guaranteed. 1076. 2005-02-23 16:22:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: Victor Brovkin , Imprint-WP4 , "Crucifix, Michel" , "Jones, Chris D" , "Hewitt, Chris" , Keith Briffa date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 16:22:11 +0100 from: joos subject: Re: Issues to resolve to: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk "Tett, Simon" wrote: > > The impression I got was that including C14 in Hadley models was fairly > easy. You would need to define source (solar) at oceanic surface. The > C14 flux could be assumed constant (and well mixed) across the > atmosphere. We get this from the Be10 data. After that C14 is a tracer > (which decays). Total time to implement 1 month or so. I have no feeling > for proxies but had the impression that there was a lot of C14 data > around..... > - suggest to prescribe tropo 14C as good data exists (INtcal etc). Then to infer ocean uptake and total production as a proxy for solar activity. This could provide a very strong feedback to 1.5 and is highly relevant science. - You do not get 14C prod from Be10 so easy. You need first to extrapolate ice core Be-10 to the global production. Then apply a non-linear production model to link the producton of both radioisotopes with the solar and geomagnetic field. - Note that mean life time is 8267 yr and it needs some time to get the ocean to equilibrium. - protocol: follow OCMIP-2 howto Orr et al. on the www. > My worry is trying to do both O18 and C13. Both are tricky and would > need more than 6 months between them. Note we all have to do these > proxies in the same way so might not be able to use our existing code. > My feeling is that for the last 1000 years O18 is the most important and > we should all say we will do that in the same way. C14 is easy so might > as well do that as well. 18O in the atm. is from my viewpoint extremly difficult and involves ocean, land, hydrological cylce. What is the science question behind for the last millennium? Suggest rather to spare resources for other tracers. >We can add that we will use existing > implementations of C13 -- which requires no resources from IMPRINT. > fine with 13C. Regards,fj > Anyone have any comments. > > Simon > On Wed, 2005-02-23 at 13:17, Victor Brovkin wrote: > > Simon, > > > > we've discussed 14C as a proxy with Fortunat but haven't come to the > > decision whether to include it into task 4.2 and the proxy table or > > not. Obviously, we have 14C in the models already, so the only work > > will be with proxy protocol for oceanic 14C that is easy to take from > > OCMIP. However, we need to explain where exaclty in the proposal we > > will use 14C. One point would be in task 4.6 (THC) where 14C could be > > used as a ventilation proxy but we already have 231Pa/230Th for this > > purpose. Another suggestion would be to use simulated atm.14C as a > > proxy for solar activity (solving inverse task with boundary condition > > from observed atm. 14C) but then we need mentioning of this work in > > the other tasks (WP1) that deal with using Be for solar activity. So, > > we need further integration of 14C into the proposal text and it might > > be not enough time now. Also, we might get critisized for dilluting > > rather thin personal resources among too many proxy developments. > > > > What do you think? > > > > Victor > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Tett, Simon wrote: > > > On Wed, 2005-02-23 at 08:16, joos wrote: > > > > > > > Dear Simon, > > > > > > > > Thanks for working on this. > > > > > > > > 14C as a proxy: > > > > Viktor, we forgot 14C in the proxy table. Need to add this. Bern may > > > > coordinate the proxy protocol. Please modify proxy tables and others > > > > please indicate whether you do 14C in your model. > > > > For the Bern model> 14C: +++ > > > > > > > I am concerned that with limited resources we are trying to do too many > > > proxies. (6 months effort would allow about 2 to be implemented...) > > > > > > > 4.3: > > > > I am wondering if we do not need to cover 'the medieval warm period', > > > > e.g. starting at 800 or 850 AD with the GCMs. Anyway, just a thought. > > > > > > > To do it well we'd need to start the simulations 100-200 years earlier > > > (to let the upper-ocean adjust) -- requiring 1500 years of simulation > > > (600-2100). If we started at 1000 (so we could discuss 1200 on) we would > > > only require 1100 years of simulation (and 800 years of high resoln > > > proxy records). > > > > > > > 4.3, 4.4 and 4.6 > > > > In Bern we will look with the fast model at CO2, CH4, d13C and 14C (atm, > > > > ocean, land), pollen, ocean 18O, ocean 231Pa/230Th, %CaCO3 as > > > > appropriate within each task. > > > > > > > Is there enough resource to implement the proxies in a consistent way. > > > Is pollen interactive or offline calculations? > > > > > > > 4.4 > > > > - CO2: in all fast models > > > > - CH4: Bristol, Bern, PIK? > > > > > > > I think that Hadley might be able to do CH4 from wetlands -- is that > > > sufficient. Michael/Chris(es) can you advise? > > > > > > > > > > - in selected fast models (see proxy table): d13C and 14C > > > > (atm,ocean,land), pollen, %CaCO3. > > > > - GCM snapshots: pollen > > > > (I do not think that we can do more with the GCMs given the > > > > intialisation problem with biogeochemical cycles) > > > > > > > Can we do something clever to get round this? -- some kind of > > > control/perturbation experiment. > > > > > > > > > > Regards, > > > > > > > > Fortunat > > > > > > > > "Tett, Simon" wrote: > > > > > > > > > All, > > > > > thanks for your input so far! I need a bit more from you. > > > > > > > > > > 1) Can I have a description of your models for the table in WP4. (Please > > > > > could Bristol and BCCR fill in the table). > > > > > > > > > > 2) BCCR -- can you you clarify what proxies you plan to simulated and > > > > > fill in the table in 4.2. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 3) All -- We need to firm up the following. > > > > > 1) Need some thoughts on what our protocol will be -- are you > > > > > all happy with the current text? > > > > > I think task 4.6/WP3 needs some early experiments to > > > > > identify the hot spots. > > > > > GCM simulations should be limited to the last 1000 years -- > > > > > which has some issues for WP1 [Keith would this reduce your budget > > > > > sensibly if you talked about the last 1000 years at high spatial resoln] > > > > > Need to firm up the snap shot simulations -- what do they bring > > > > > to the project.... > > > > > 2) Need a minimum set of proxies that all of us will implement. > > > > > Given the (limited) resources we have can I suggest the following. > > > > > a) For models in 4.3 ("recent Holocene") we need delta > > > > > 18 0, 14 C (as it tells us something for ocean proxies) and maybe 13 C > > > > > (though this will be a challenge on the resources available). I am very > > > > > open to guidance from those of you with more expertise than me. > > > > > b) Not sure about the other tasks but could task leaders give me > > > > > views on what proxies are key to their needs. Jerome can I have some > > > > > text on your ice sheet modelling -- other 4.5 modellers can you think > > > > > how to integrate with that work. > > > > > > > > > > 4) Gilles -- can I have some text for 4.6 with deliverables. > > > > > > > > > > Simon > > > > > > > > > > Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. > > > > > Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) > > > > > Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB > > > > > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 > > > > > Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 > > > > > E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > > > > Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > > > > Name: imprint_wp4.doc > > > > > Type: Microsoft Word Document (application/msword) > > > > > imprint_wp4.doc Encoding: BASE64 > > > > > Description: imprint_wp4.doc > > > > > Download Status: Not downloaded with message > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > +-----------------------------------------------------+ > > | Dr. V. Brovkin | > > | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research | > > | Climate Systems Research Department | > > | P.O.Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany | > > | Tel.: +49 331 288 2592 | > > | Fax: +49 331 288 2570 | > > | e-mail: victor@pik-potsdam.de | > > +-----------------------------------------------------+ -- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ 768. 2005-02-24 12:45:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: Phil Jones , Tim Osborn , Caspar Ammann , "Wahl, Eugene R" , Scott Rutherford date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 12:45:10 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: to: Keith Briffa Thanks Keith, I've made these changes and a few very minor changes just to improve the grammar in places, etc. Also, I'm embarassed to say that Scott's name was accidentally left out of the author list, so I've included that back in. There was one bit about the high-pass filtering and low-pass filtering which you changed, based on I think some minor confusion about what I meant. I've fixed that. I'm assuming that Tim will be ok w/ the attached, final version, so I'm going to go ahead and submit to Nature now. We'll have ample opportunity for revision at a later stage. Lets cross our fingers. Thanks again everyone, Mike At 11:01 AM 2/24/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: Sorry Mike - still dashing - but attached shows some slight wording changes - only early and late - missed Track changes so just compare - sorry to mess up - otherwise go with this for now and lets see reaction Keith t 00:40 22/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil et al, All of the suggested changes have been made, and some others additional changes have been made for clarification, including descriptions of updated versions of the figures (Scott: can you get to me pdf versions of figures 1 and 3 that have the correct "degrees" symbol on the y axis? Also--we need an updated url for the pseudoproxy data at fox.rwu.edu as noted! thanks in advance for getting back to me ASAP on these) Changes indicated in yellow highlighting. Will try to prepare a final draft for submission once I've heard back from Keith, Tim, and anyone else who has any remaining comments. I've also attached a draft cover letter to go to Nature along w/ the submission. Thanks, Mike At 09:14 AM 2/21/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Here's a few modifications to the text. Keith and Tim are pretty happy with it as well, but the'll reply as soon as they have some time. Off again tomorrow to Chicago. Back in next week. Happy for you to submit this as soon as you have their and other comments. Cheers Phil At 22:44 12/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: sorry. text revised yet again. no more changes until I receive comments from everyone. thanks... mike At 12:03 PM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Keith and Tim are here next week, but very busy with a proposal to the EU. So you may have to hassle them a bit, or hang on for a week or two. Nature dragged in the IPCC angle which annoyed me. I tried to explain to him how IPCC works. IPCC won't be discussing this in Beijing in May - except as part of Chapter 6. Hans von Storch will likely regret some of the words he's said. FYI, just as NCAR have put up a web site to give the whole story re Chris Landseas's 'resignation' from a CA in the atmos. obs. chapter (to help Kevin Trenberth out), KNMI are doing the same re Rob van Dorland and that Dutch magazine. The chief scientist at KNMI has got involved as Rob didn't say the things attributed to him. I'll find out more on this in Pune as a guy from KNMI will be there. Several other CAs on our chapter pulled out, or just didn't do anything. Their stories never got run. Dick's report was good and my bit in Nature cam across well. Say hi to all there and wish Steve well. Cheers Phil At 16:19 11/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Phil--thanks, that's great. Really happy to hear that everyone is on board with this. I'm at a symposium honoring Steve Schneider out at stanford right now. Lots of folks here--as I talk this over w/ them, and see Dick Kerr's coverage of this, etc. I realize its not so bad--I was afraid this would be spun as bolstering the contrarians, but it hasn't. In large part due to quotes from you and others pointing out that the study actually reinforces the key conclusions, etc., and the fact Dick Kerr showed Keith and Tim's plot showing the scattering of multiple reconstructions, etc. which takes the focus off "Mann" a bit... Nonetheless, I *am* convinced their methodology is suspect, as the analysis I sent shows. So I will really appreciate input from Keith, Tim, and you to make sure the language and wording are appropriate and fair... I will revise as I get input from various people, with an aim to having this submission-ready in about 10 days (so you can have one final look after you return, and before you have to head out again). looking forward to getting people's comments, feedback, etc. thanks again, mike At 08:05 AM 2/11/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike et al, I've talked to Keith and Tim here and it seems best if we all come in with you on this response. What you have done is basically fine. We can discuss specific wording later. My problem is that I'm off tomorrow to Pune till Feb 20 and email may be sporadic or non-existent. So can you discuss revised drafts with Keith and Tim, but keep me on - lower down as I'm away. I'm here on Feb 21 then off to Chicago to review the vertical temperature report for the NRC/NAS Feb 22-25. Keep me on the emails in case email works well in Pune. Cheers Phil At 23:35 10/02/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Dear Caspar, Gene, Scott, Phil, I am attaching a response I've drafted to the Moberg et al paper (attached for those of you who haven't seen it). The message is pretty clear and simple--their method overemphasizes the low-frequency variability. To demonstrate this, I've made use of stuff from Mann and Jones, and from the Mann/Rutherford/Wahl/Ammann J. Climate letter on Pseudoproxies. So I would welcome any of you to be co-authors on this--just let me now if you're interested. I've been in touch w/ Keith (he and Tim are potentially working on their own independent response--waiting to hear further). This is a very rough draft, so comments much appreciated. Looking forward to hearing back, Mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [6]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\MobergComment-final.doc" 3501. 2005-02-24 16:40:41 ______________________________________________________ cc: Martin Juckes , Myles Allen , , Keith Briffa date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 16:40:41 +0000 (GMT) from: Martin Juckes subject: Re: Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and to: hegerl@duke.edu Thanks Gabi, I think that will fit in well, especially the systematic checking -- which is precisely what they want to pay for, I think. I'll try to send out a slightly extended outline tomorrow. cheers, Martin On Wed, 23 Feb 2005 hegerl@duke.edu wrote: > > Hi all, > > WIthout having looked at the proposal (my home day today, so can > 't look), I have already looked > into scaling various reconstructions with a nonbiased technique (tls), and > find that it makes some difference particularly to records that don't > correlate magnificently with the target of reconstruction. So my hope is > to sell this as part of the plan, and write it up. But there also seems a > real difference, Mann and > jones for example even if tls scaled has less variance than Esper et al. > because in that reconstruction, the early 20th century is probably the > strongest excursion, while in Esper et al earlier variability is stronger. > So there still is real differences in record. > so what I hope to add to the proposal is stuff I have already well > started, but > needs to be checked more systematically, and > written up). Tom and I also have a new reconstruciton taht is submitted > for publication (apart from one last iteration with Cos) with tls and is > quite similar to Moberg et al > > Gabi > > On Wed, 23 Feb 2005, Martin Juckes wrote: > > > > > Hello, > > > > I've finally got around to sketching a rough plan of objectives and > > deliverables. Given the small amount of money and the specific aims > > there is not much room for innovative thinking, but hopefully the > > work done within the poroject will be helpful to work which people > > are already doing. > > > > Essentially, I'm proposing to assemble/get hold of a representative > > proxy database and run a representative set of reconstruction methods > > on the same data. > > > > The proposal has to be submitted before Thursday, March 10, so we have > > two weeks to come up with it. > > > > A rough outline is attached. > > > > Martin > > > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > Gabriele Hegerl > Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment > Duke University, Durham NC 27708 > phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 > email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html > --------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > 422. 2005-02-24 18:52:54 ______________________________________________________ cc: chapter06 date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 18:52:54 +0800 from: "=?GB2312?Q?=D5=C5=B5=C2=B6=FE?=" subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] List of issues by Zhang D to: Jonathan Overpeck Dear Peck : I had received your email of Juan.9 on Juan. 12. and replied immediately. On your request, a list 'of all issues/tasks on Chapter 6 ZOD I think ' is sent to you and Eystein by the deadline Feb.24. Attached is the 'list '. Once you receive the mail ,please reply a message. Because our email-net has some trouble recently. Best wish Zhang De'er ======== 2005-02-09 11:15:00 ======== Greetings Chap 6 Lead Authors: By now, the rush up to the ZOD is hopefully but a fond memory, and you're ready to get back into the thick of IPCC chapter work. Both Chapter 6 and the other chapters are now on the WG 1 website for all of you to enjoy and critique. See your email from the WG1 TSU for information on how to get ZOD chapters. As you read our chapter, you will no doubt be thinking - "it's really too bad we did so much at the last minute, and that the ZOD is so rough." The science is in there, and you all did a great job, but in the future, we won't have the luxury of sending an incomplete draft to the TSU. The purpose of this email is to set a deliberate pace to ensure that our FOD is as perfect and polished as possible. Anything short of this will look bad to our colleagues, and will cost us more work in the official post-FOD IPCC review process. PLEASE MEET ALL DEADLINES below. Please read all of this communication and NOTE the deadlines - we are asking that you all respond quickly on a couple issues. ****1) Due as soon as you read this email - we would like to consider a pre-May LA meeting involving all, or a sub-set of LAs, and would like to know when you are available to meet for 2 days (plus travel to/from US East Coast). The purpose would be to get much further ahead with the FOD and to be able make the most of the Beijing LA2 meeting in May. Remember how frustrating the Trieste meeting was due to the lack of time. Please let us know if you are available to meet April 12,13 (Tues/Wed) and April 19,20 (Tues/Wed). We will pick the dates that work best. Funding would be handled in the usual IPCC manner. ****2) Due February 24, 2005 - each person should read ALL of the Chapter 6 ZOD. As you do this, please compiling a list of all the issues/tasks you think need to be dealt with and completed before the FOD. For example: o what important issues or disagreements remain unresolved and what needs to be done to resolve them? o what work is needed to make the text better? o what key (relevant) science is missing? o what key references are missing or need to be updated? o are there key display items that need to be deleted or added? o what work is needed to make final draft display items? Each LA should provide the above information to PECK and EYSTEIN on a section-by-section basis by February 24. Please let us know NOW if you can't meet this deadline. ****3) Due March 3, 2005 - (we have to meet a key IPCC deadline) -Now that we have our ZOD, we have been requested to provide input for the official IPCC AR4 Glossary. Please see the attached glossary document, and follow the instructions included at the top of that file. THIS IS JUST AS IMPORTANT AS OUR OTHER WORK. Each LA should provide this information TO PECK AND EYSTEIN by March 3. Please let us know NOW if you can't meet this deadline. ****4) Due March 10, 2005 - in Trieste, we assigned Chapter Liaisons for each of the other WG1 chapters. This liaison list is attached below. Please note that some of you are liaisons for more than one other chapter. For each chapter for which you are liaison (and more if you are so inspired), please compile: o a list of substantive scientific suggestions for the LAs of that chapter, particularly as they relate to Chapter 6 - don't get bogged down in general editing. o a list of issues that our Chapter 6 team must work on to ensure compatibility with other chapters; in each case, describe the issue and how you think it should best be resolved. Ideally, we can do much of this before Beijing. Each LA should provide the above information to PECK and EYSTEIN by March 10. Please let us know NOW if you can't meet this deadline. ******************************** Lastly, we have some good news. As you all know, Bette Otto-Bleisner did a great last-minute job in helping with section 6.4.2 (Equilibrium model evaluations), and has made it possible for us to tap into PMIP2 in a much needed manner. We clearly need her continued major contribution, and thus asked the IPCC WG1 Bureau to appoint her to our LA team. Susan Solomon supported this request and we recently received a positive response. So, welcome to the team, Bette! PLEASE work hard to meet deadlines - I think we all know what happens when deadlines are not met, and we cannot afford to miss deadlines any longer. Thanks, Peck and Eystein Chapter Six - Paleoclimate Cross-Chapter Liaisons Frequency Asked Questions Stefan Chapter 1. Historical Dominique (served on SAR) Chapter 2. Radiation Dominique (trace gas, aerosol) David (solar, volcanic, aerosol) Chapter 3. Atmo Obs Keith Ramesh Chapter 4. Cyro Obs Dick (ice sheets Olga (mountain ice) Chapter 5. Ocean Obs. Jean-Claude Eystein Chapter 7. Biogeochem Fortunat (biogeochem) Ricardo (veg dynamics) Chapter 8. Model Eval Bette Dick Stefan David Chapter 9. Attribution David Valerie Keith Chapter 10. Projections David Stefan Chapter 11. Regional Dan Ramesh Zhang Overpeck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Zhang De'er [1]derzhang@cma.gov.cn 2005-02-24 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\List-issues-Zhang D.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3119. 2005-02-25 09:42:41 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Martin Juckes" , date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 09:42:41 -0000 from: "Myles Allen" subject: RE: Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and to: "Keith Briffa" , "Martin Juckes" , I floated the idea of bringing Anders Moberg and Jan Esper in on the proposal (offering them both travel money), because one of the things I would want to do would be to get a better grasp of their error analysis, and it's always a lot easier to do this by talking friendlily to people than by reverse-engineering their papers. I tried and failed to understand Mann's error analysis using both approaches about 5 years ago, so I don't think it is worth trying again, particularly given his current level of sensitivity. I don't think anyone was particularly against the idea, but we haven't done anything about it. Would people like me to? Can we make a deliverable of this project a piece of public-domain IDL code (or matlab, if people prefer and someone else volunteers to write it) that takes temperature and proxy inputs and generates reconstructions using at least two methods (Moberg and Crowley et al, for example, plus ideally MBH, Juckes et al, Osborne & Briffa etc etc), providing a framework for comparison. This kind of exercise was hugely valuable in teasing out the origins of differences between different approaches to optimal fingerprinting prior to the TAR. If people provide me with inputs and exact specification of algorithms, I would be happy to produce this (if it's in IDL) as my contribution. Myles Climate Dynamics Group Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics, University of Oxford Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 Fax: 44-1865-272923 E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk -----Original Message----- From: Keith Briffa [mailto:k.briffa@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 25 February 2005 07:59 To: Martin Juckes; hegerl@duke.edu Cc: Martin Juckes; Myles Allen; t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Subject: Re: Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and Evaluation (MITRIE) Hi all just for interest , Tim and I (and Philip Brohan at the Hadley Centre) have also been playing with "classic regression" and variants to avoid bias . I have also looked at the Esper stuff in detail and am convinced that that the application of the Regional Curve standardisation he employs introduces significant bias in his reconstruction , and coupled to the way he uses a cosign lat. weighting , another early bias . These act together to make the early part of his scaled series ( I do not call it a reconstruction , because some series included do not have a clear temperature signal ) too cold. So while the differences between reconstructions , and the amplitude of each can be varied by using similar scaling in each, there are real differences in represented signal (and spatial and processing questions) related to them also. There will be a significant job to do here just describing the underlying character and biases in these data . The outline looks good . At 16:40 24/02/2005, Martin Juckes wrote: >Thanks Gabi, > >I think that will fit in well, especially the systematic checking -- >which is precisely what they want to pay for, I think. > >I'll try to send out a slightly extended outline tomorrow. > >cheers, >Martin > >On Wed, 23 Feb 2005 hegerl@duke.edu wrote: > > > > > Hi all, > > > > WIthout having looked at the proposal (my home day today, so can > > 't look), I have already looked > > into scaling various reconstructions with a nonbiased technique (tls), and > > find that it makes some difference particularly to records that don't > > correlate magnificently with the target of reconstruction. So my hope is > > to sell this as part of the plan, and write it up. But there also seems a > > real difference, Mann and > > jones for example even if tls scaled has less variance than Esper et al. > > because in that reconstruction, the early 20th century is probably the > > strongest excursion, while in Esper et al earlier variability is stronger. > > So there still is real differences in record. > > so what I hope to add to the proposal is stuff I have already well > > started, but > > needs to be checked more systematically, and > > written up). Tom and I also have a new reconstruciton taht is submitted > > for publication (apart from one last iteration with Cos) with tls and is > > quite similar to Moberg et al > > > > Gabi > > > > On Wed, 23 Feb 2005, Martin Juckes wrote: > > > > > > > > Hello, > > > > > > I've finally got around to sketching a rough plan of objectives and > > > deliverables. Given the small amount of money and the specific aims > > > there is not much room for innovative thinking, but hopefully the > > > work done within the poroject will be helpful to work which people > > > are already doing. > > > > > > Essentially, I'm proposing to assemble/get hold of a representative > > > proxy database and run a representative set of reconstruction methods > > > on the same data. > > > > > > The proposal has to be submitted before Thursday, March 10, so we have > > > two weeks to come up with it. > > > > > > A rough outline is attached. > > > > > > Martin > > > > > > > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Gabriele Hegerl > > Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment > > Duke University, Durham NC 27708 > > phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 > > email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html > > --------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > > > -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 308. 2005-02-25 14:53:45 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Martin Juckes" , , "Keith Briffa" , date: Fri, 25 Feb 2005 14:53:45 -0000 from: "Myles Allen" subject: Millennial temperatures to: "Eduardo Zorita" , "Jan Esper" , "Anders Moberg" Dear Eduardo, Jan and Anders, I have been asked (on rather short notice) to put together a team of international experts to perform an inter-comparison and evaluation of reconstructions of temperatures over the past millennium on behalf of the Dutch government. Essentially, they have allocated 80keuro to this task and are soliciting bids -- my understanding, reading between the lines of the e-mails from the project manager, is that we may be the only bidders, but if there are rival bids and if you happen to be putting together another one, then please accept my apologies, and rest assured I won't take offence if you simply ask me to go away. The resources offered are not large, and they would like deliverables on a six-month timescale, so we clearly can't break a lot of new ground with this. What I thought would be useful would be to put together a common piece software in an accessible language like IDL or Matlab to take a common set of input proxy series and reproduce reconstructions using several different algorithms. I'm sure we won't be able to do this for all the algorithms out there, but if we can do this even for just a couple, then we can put down a framework for other authors to make their own input to. This way we can document exactly whether reconstructions differ because of inputs, processing philosophy, or simply tunable parameters. Gabriele Hegerl and I did something like this (with Nathan Gillett) pulling together different detection and attribution results in the build-up to the IPCC TAR, and although it sounds rather mundane, it was actually incredibly valuable for the TAR because it meant the chapter authors understood the origins of the differences between the studies' results in a nice, impersonal environment. We would aim to make this code publicly available to accompany a review paper at the conclusion of the project. A nice extension would be to apply the various algorithms to some pseudo-proxy data from models, but this would depend on us not tripping over other pieces of research currently under way. My colleague Martin Juckes (at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory) is pulling together the current version of our outline bid, which currently involves myself, Gabriele Hegerl (with whom I have been working on another regression based reconstruction with Tom Crowley), Keith Briffa and Tim Osborn (who have also been looking into regression-based approaches). Would you be prepared to participate in this exercise, specifically with Jan and Anders contributing the details of their respective reconstruction algorithms and Eduardo advising on the details of the MBH algorithm? At present we were envisaging salary support for Martin and Gabi, and travel support possibly supplemented with a small consultancy fee if regulations allow for everyone else. At the very least, this should fund us all getting together for a practical workshop sorting out the code -- I'm sure we can choose somewhere nice for the purpose! Looking forward to hearing from you (please copy Martin in on any response) and congratulations to Anders on the impact of your paper: well deserved. Yours sincerely, Myles Allen Climate Dynamics Group Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics, University of Oxford Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 Fax: 44-1865-272923 E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk 37. 2005-02-27 12:14:17 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 27 Feb 2005 12:14:17 -0500 from: "Shaopeng Huang" subject: borehole-based climate reconstruction to: , , , , , , Dear IPCC AR4 Paleoclimate Chapter lead authors, Attacked please find a reprint of my letter published in Nature this week (Feb. 24) and the email exchange I had with RealClimate.org earlier regarding some borehole-based reconstructions. I thought you might be interested in reading them. Sincerely, Shaopeng Huang Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Nature5224.pdf" From: "Shaopeng Huang" Subject: how small is small and how big is big Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 18:31:14 -0500 Thank you for responding to my concern about your December 4 posting. You stated in your added comment that the two borehole curves of your Figure 1 suffer from a "small error in the areal weighting normalization". But how small is this "small error"? According to Rutherford and Mann (2004), it is a factor of 1.47. In comparison, how big is the arithmetic mean different from "appropriately" 5-deg by 5-deg weighted mean? According to Huang (2004) based on the existing borehole database, it is a factor of 1.01. It is also confusing that you cited Briffa and Osborn (2002) and Mann et al. (2003) both as "appropriately areally-averaged" reconstruction of borehole data. Briffa and Osborn (2002) employed a 10-deg by 10-deg averaging scheme (Osborn, per. comm.) while Mann et al. (2003) and Rutherford and Mann (2004) took a 5-deg by 5-deg area weighting approach. They are different. For your information, Pollack and Smerdon (2004) and Huang (2004) show how different averaging methods would lead to different mean values. Huang (2004) further presents the latest borehole-based NH reconstruction with complementary information from the 20th century SAT record and the multi-proxy model of Mann et al. (1999). -----Original Message----- From: contrib@realclimate.org [[1]mailto:contrib@realclimate.org] Sent: Thursday, January 13, 2005 1:02 PM To: Shaopeng Huang Subject: Re: Comment on Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and the so-called 'Hockey Stick' Thank you for pointing this out. We have placed a comment in the caption to the figure correcting this oversight, and directing readers to the corrected figures in the Rutherford and Mann (2004) or Jones and Mann (2004) papers. > I am sadly disappointed by your misrepresentation of ground surface > temperature history reconstruction. I wonder why you would use an outdated > illustration (Figure 1) in which borehole-based reconstruction is > misrepresented by the erroneous Mann et al. (J. Geophys. Res., 2003), > rather > than by the original reconstruction by Huang et al. (Nature, 2000), or the > result of Pollack and Smerdon (J. Geophys. Res., 2004) which first pointed > out a serious error of the Mann et al. (2003) reconstruction, or the > result > of Rutherford and Mann (J. Geophys. Res., 2004) which acknowledged the > error > and offered a substantial correction to the shown representation, or the > latest integrated reconstruction by Huang (Geophys. Res. Lett., 2004). > Advocating a piece of work of known error is not in the best interest of > climate research community in general and RealClimate in particular. > > Shaopeng Huang > University of Michigan > > 3614. 2005-02-28 08:58:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 28 08:58:57 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: CCSP report review period to: Ben Santer Ben, Good to see you if briefly last Wednesday ! The rest of the meeting was rather odd. Some very odd things said by a few people - clearly irked by not having got a couple of proposals recently ! I'm not supposed to be contacting you ! I would urge you to write up what you presented on the day and in the report. It was the most convincing presentation and chapter of the report. You should have less to do than the other chapters. Not yet sure how the summary will fare. We didn't discuss the email evidence (as you put it) nor Pielke's dissent. We shouldn't and we won't if the NRC people have their way. I was never really sure what the point of the review was. Cheers Phil At 20:59 24/02/2005, you wrote: Dear Dian, Thanks very much for your email. I agree wholeheartedly with the sentiments you expressed. Over the next few months, my time and effort will be directed towards writing up some of the analyses that we've performed in the course of our work on Chapter 5. I believe this is how I can be of most benefit to the CCSP report. At yesterday's meeting in Chicago, it was disappointing to see that our group's email correspondence can be submitted as evidence to the NRC panel. This has rather diminished my enthusiasm for further rounds of email exchanges amongst CCSP Lead Authors. With best regards, Ben Dian Seidel wrote: Dear Group, One thing I like about our line of work is the path we take in our research. Focusing on the publication part of the path, I always get a sense of satisfaction, and breathe a little sigh of relief, when I send a manuscript off for journal review. Although the outcome is uncertain, I like knowing that the paper is out of my hands for a period of time, and that I can turn my attention to other matters until I hear back from the editor. After the review period, I'm able to return to the work refreshed, and with a bit more objectivity, because I've put it aside for a while. I'd like to suggest that we try to take advantage of the time the NRC panel is reviewing of our report to detach ourselves from it, so that when we have to address their comments and revise the report, we might have a clearer perspective on our work. These are just my own thoughts, and Tom as our Editor and the CLAs might have different ideas on how to keep us busy. But I hope not! :-) Dian ----- Original Message ----- From: "Thomas R Karl" Date: Thursday, February 24, 2005 3:16 pm Subject: Re: science issue Roger, We should freely communicate among the team as needed. Thanks, Tom Roger Pielke wrote: Tom What is your policy with respect to internal CCSP exchanges? (i.e. my comments/questions to Ben). Are we to consider the CCSP report process>closed until we receive the NRC review? (of course, it is up to Ben as to whether he replies even if you are permitting CCSP exchanges). Roger -- -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Benjamin D. Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. Tel: (925) 422-2486 FAX: (925) 422-7675 email: santer1@llnl.gov ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2261. 2005-02-28 09:32:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Feb 28 09:32:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: review request to: "Dr. Gufran Beig" Dear Gufran, The two papers you sent me are really poor papers. It is impossible to really review them properly as they are so bad. The first paper doesn't say anything new. It is too vague and selective in relating the lake/river anomalies with solar activity and there is no real physical explanation of the findings that are inferred. I would suggest they refer to Verschuren D Laird, KR and Cumming, BF (2000) Rainfall and drought in equatorial east Africa during the last 1,100 years. Nature 403, 410-413. This treats the lake level variability / solar activity in some detail. I hope this is of some use. Regards Phil At 11:34 18/02/2005, Dr. Gufran Beig wrote: Dear Dr. Jones; I am contacting you as a main Guest editor of the European Journal "PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH". We organize every 2 years the workshop on "long term changes and trends in the atmosphere". This year it was held in Sozopol, Bulgaria. Papers out of this workshop will be published in the above mentioned journal. I am requesting you to kindly help us in a review process by reviewing the attached 2 papers which I feel fall in the preview of your area of expertise. Hope you would agree that this is a service we all should render for the cause of science. Please send your critical comments by e-mail as soon as you can. I will be highly obliged. I also request you to kindly send me a reprint or a soft copy of your paper entitled "Climate over past millennia published in Rev. Geophys vol 42, June 2004 issue p. RG2002 by P.D. Jones and M.E.Mann Please acknowledge the receipt of the paper for review. -- With best regards. ============================= Dr. Gufran BEIG Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr. Homi Bhabha Road,Pashan PUNE-411 008 INDIA. Phone: +91-20-25893600; Fax: +91-20-25893825 E-mail: beig@tropmet.res.in Web: [1]http://envis.tropmet.res.in [2]http://www.tropmet.res.in Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4898. 2005-02-28 14:57:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: Nathan Gillett date: Mon Feb 28 14:57:32 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: idag report = and a tough question to: Gabi Hegerl , Tom Crowley , myles , Nathan Gillett , Tim Barnett , Reiner Schnur Dear All, Obviously we should all discuss this when we meet at the end of the month. Tim's idea of an annual meeting would be useful, even if we can't find a champion or a theme for a further 3 years. We have been going for 9 years now, so maybe it is time to call it a day. This isn't a great reason though. If the agencies are keen and I think Anjuli is, probably more so than Ricky, then we should think of something we can do. We are running out of Americans though and need one of you to front it. Maybe this was the idea that Gabi was thinking about suggesting David Karoly. The front person can't be from one of the modelling centres or PCMDI, I would think. Myles could take over, but I'm not sure the US would wear this. Cheers Phil At 22:01 21/02/2005, Gabi Hegerl wrote: Hi funded idag people! We need ca 1 page from you about what you did last year on the grant, and what are your plans for this last year (so far, I only gor a bit from Tim, but TIm, could you add what plan is next year?). I append the work plan in case you can't find it. There is also a really tough question out: What next?? Our grant runs out in early 2006. So this is our last year. We can do two things - decide this is it, we have detected all signals we want to detect as a group and are moving on to other stuff - or do we want to continue? In that case, we'd need a vision and a new group leader. Tom feels he really is burned out and can't really contribute a vision for continuation. If all we do is get some extra money for what we do anyway, its also ethically questionable, at a time of budget shortenings of research in general. If we feel as a group we can contribute (beyond emergency input to agencies, a lot of which we have done lately), then its a different matter. When I talked to Anjuli Bamzai (Rick Petty's successor), she sounded very supportive and assumed that of course we'll go for another round. If we want another round, we would need another enthousiastic person to run this (I can co it again, but don't want to do it alone), and a bit of a twist where we are really interested in going. Such as impacts and extremes, or so. I personally am waffling between stopping here, or going maybe at reduced budget to fund meetings, and some extra work that we would find hard to do on our normal grants but that we find relevant. We might consider explicitly including Dave Karoly (funded, he is not funded right now). Please think about this, and lets come up with an email consensus on this before we meet (we don';t want the agency guys watch us wonder what our purpose is). So I need your opinion on this soon. Gabi -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, [1]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1800. 2005-03-01 08:40:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Mar 1 08:40:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Future Directions to: Gabi Hegerl , Tom Crowley , Gabi Hegerl , myles , Tim Barnett , Nathan Gillett , "Stott, Peter" , David Karoly , Reiner Schnur , Karl Taylor , francis Dear All, I've knocked Chris off this reply. There is a meeting of the CCDD program next week in Asheville. I guess Chris wants something for this. I'm on the panel, so if you want to add to what Gabi and Tom have put together then let me know and I'll feed that in additionally to what is already there. From being at the review last week of the vertical temperature trends panel, the issue of reducing forcing uncertainties is important. A number of people think that agreement in the 20th century is all doing to model tuning due to uncertain forcing with sulphates. How to counter this is one area. One of my own pet areas is trying to reduce uncertainties in the paleo record for the last millennium, but again this is one of convincing people that we really know what has happened. So much is being made of the paleo records, but are they that important to detection when most of the work is going on with the 20th century records. Is the pre-20th century really that important when it comes to D&A? Cheers Phil At 20:45 28/02/2005, Gabi Hegerl wrote: Hi IDAG people, Chris Miller needs some input on where detection is going and what should be funded, appended is a list Tom and I sent him as rapid response, but it sounds like they are still in the process of thinking about this, so please reply (soon) if you have additions/comments (Chris, only thought of sending this now, I hope results will be still helpful) Gabi 1) extending detection to other fields, esp. U.S. possible variables are circulation, anything hydrological (drought, average rainfall), climate extremes, storms, all this is getting more feasible as observational data get better, reanalyses get more reliable (although trend sstill questionable), and models get better and have higher resolution 2) compiling "showable" scorecard of what has been detected in the system already 3) abrupt changes - Tom thinks the relevance has been overstated of past changes in the thermohaline circulation (because of proximity of massive amounts of ice/freshwater). However, I think it would still be useful to find a fingerprint of predictors for thermohaline shutdown (from waterhosing experiments), and establish how early warning signs can be detected. Another aprupt change that could be dealt with are events such as the mega drought cycles in the western U.S., which our preliminary work indicates does not correspond with multidecal peaks in warmth for zonal average temperatures. 4) using paleoclimate data for understanding regional responses to known forcings, such as pulse of volcanism in early 19th century. tests of a model's predictability on regional scales. this however would require ensemble runs and a fair amount of legwork, so probably would be best as a proposal than as an IDAG project. 5) more surface temperature detection as already donw, to keep analyzing 20th century from models as model diagnostic and evaluating how to get most model performance information out of this diagnostic. For this, updates of forcing estimates, particularly reduced sulfate aerosol uncertainties would be useful. -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: Directions in D&A Date: Tue, 22 Feb 2005 10:51:56 -0500 From: Chris Miller Reply-To: christopher.d.miller@noaa.gov Organization: NOAA To: Gabi Hegerl References: <4216317A.7020700@noaa.gov> <421A4F67.1040201@duke.edu> Gabi, I'm looking for some quick thoughts, which probably means just you and Tom. Obviously, the rest of IDAG would have ideas but it would take some time to poll them (I could see it as an agenda item at the IDAG meeting). If you had a couple highlight items by Thursday morning, that would be helpful as I have an internal meeting where this will be discussed. Thanks again, Chris Gabi Hegerl wrote: Chris, by when do you need this? From the whole IDAG or just, eg from me and Tom? Gabi Chris Miller wrote: Tom, Gabi, As you are probably aware, one of the recurring challenges for federal program managers is to indicate to upper management what the science priorities in the future should be. NOAA is more future-looking than it has been in the past and we are now being called upon more frequently to respond to this question. A simplistic answer would be "more of the same" since we are doing such good work now. This could be part of the answer, but not the whole answer. NOAA is interested in new science thrusts, new observational programs or analyses, new institutional arrangements, etc. (the "new is better syndrome"). I would appreciate it if you could take a few minutes to think about this issue and send me a few bullets on where you think the community should be going on D&A, for both continuing and new investments (from the perspective of the work that IDAG has been involved in to date). Thanks for your help and look forward to the next IDAG mtg. Chris -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, [1]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, [2]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, [3]http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1326. 2005-03-01 19:23:16 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eduardo Zorita , Jan Esper , Anders Moberg , , Keith Briffa , date: Tue, 1 Mar 2005 19:23:16 +0000 (GMT) from: Martin Juckes subject: Re: Millennial temperatures to: Myles Allen Hello, Firstly I would like to welcome Jan Esper, Anders Moberg and Eduardo Zorita to our consortium, which now includes an impressive range of expertise. I have attached a draft, this is still very rough, but all comments are welcome. Myles is keen to have a workshop, and after some initial reservations I agree -- with the short timescale of the project we cannot hope to reach agreement between so many people without meeting. Options to be considered are: (1) Immediately before or after the NCCR Climate Summer School, 28th Aug to 2nd Sept, Grendelwald, Switzerland. This would cut our travel costs and allow us as several members of the consortium are already planning to be there. (2) Meet in Oxford. (3) Any other ideas? cheers, Martin Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\draft_03.pdf" 4119. 2005-03-02 08:38:55 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Mar 2 08:38:55 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: ???? to: Tim Barnett Tim, Because people still keep going on about the LIA, I guess there is still some debate amongst proxy people. I reckon it has more chance of being larger scale than the MWP, but both are more likely to be just NH and maybe just the N. Atlantic environs for the MWP. What neither events are though are peoples of ubiquitously cold or warm periods, with all years for several centuries consistently cooler/warmer than modern base periods. Tried to say a lot of these things in the attached paper which maybe I've sent you before, so apologies if I have already. What irks most is the continual comments that say.. 'this reconstruction hasn't got the LIA or MWP period, which we all know is there..'. What is the point in doing any more proxy work if the answer is already known ! Ideas have to change as new data become available. I keep saying this, but a lot of ears are deaf to new series and people prefer to believe in concepts from the 1960s. The 1960s were a good decade for many things, but not for the last millennium. It's like saying - based on a very small amount of data here's what we think happened, but despite all the new info we will still keep these outdated concepts. If you were at Duke you would hear me present something about the 1730s and 1740s, For western Europe the 1730s were amazingly mild (almost as warm as today - warmer for autumns, for some reason), but the 1740s (especially 1740 itself) dramatically cooler. All must be naturally forced - but no volcanoes (or at least none we know about in the ice cores) and little change in solar output (at least in the series we have). So, maybe natural variability from just the ocean is more than we thought. Maybe the long PCM run will have events like this, not the same periods, but it should be getting something like this. So, LIA a coolish period from 1550 to 1720 and again from 1780 to 1840, but certainly not always cool. I believe these periods for the NH could be about 0.5C below 1961-90 when averaged and maybe some decades nearer to 1.0C below. Cheers Phil At 23:57 01/03/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil....i have gotten a little confused on the little ice age. was it indeed a global event, or largely confined to the N Hem and/or Europe. Is this still a controversy or do most good people believe the same story? tks for clearing things up Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3676. 2005-03-02 16:42:00 ______________________________________________________ cc: john.kennedy@metoffice.gov.uk, Philip Brohan date: Wed Mar 2 16:42:00 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Query to: Ian Harris , Peter Thorne Dear All, I'll elaborate on Harry's email a little and then make a suggestion. The deleted stations were mainly duplicate ones, or ones with very little data (but had normals from the WMO source). The changed stations may have had from 1 to N changes. You don't yet have these files (Philip may have) and need the appropriate normals and SD files. So, I hope you've not mixed any files sent by Harry - as you'll need a full new set. I don't think this is the reason, by the way. Far more likely is that the month you're now doing is January - a new year. This always gave me problems as the Anders file has to be expanded to have one more year for each station. I also needed to expand some arrays to read in one more year. As Harry says we've not altered anything in NZ. The fact that the error manifest itself in NZ may be irrelevant and it is just masking where it really occurred. Hope you find it ! Peter will be back with you on Friday ! Cheers Phil At 13:34 02/03/2005, Ian Harris wrote: On 2 Mar 2005, at 13:15, Peter Thorne wrote: Phil, Philip, Harry, John, do you know of any changes made to a NZ station(s) in the last month? I'll try to investigate further upon my return on Friday, but it looks like this can't be dismissed as a simple bug in the system. I doubt a change at UEA would have led to this problem unless it had been deliberately propogated to the Met Office archive which is conceivable. I have no info as to the relative magnitude of the change. No changes to NZ data from my end, Peter. Here's a map showing the stations I've 'affected' ;-) [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~harry/for_philip_b/changedstationstorev10.pdf Keep me posted! Harry Thanks Peter Note: forwarded message attached. From: "Hardwick, Jen" Date: 2 March 2005 08:49:34 GMT To: Peter Thorne Subject: HadCRUTtttttttttttttttttewwwe ew HadCRUT fails at test 3# from the test_landsstmerge program, after the negrhadcrut2 script. "Test 3 failed, values before the current month are too dissimilar. Check random years Either SST or land in error for hadcrut2 The proportion of values changed before the current month is: 0.0063" The criteria are 0.001 for a normal run through and 0.005 if Phil updates the anders file. Looking at the data there are a number of differences for the previous month and subsequent months. This is interesting because the land values have not changed and the SST values have not changes. Looking more closely at the 'dodgy' file you can see that the change in values, for almost all years back to 1856, are localised to the lat, long grid box areas (27, 66+). This is around New Zealand. I'm baffled. Not an unusual turn of events there! Don't worry too hard about it, Happy day Jen -- Jen Hardwick, Climate Information Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Tel: +44 (0)1392 884288 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Email: jen.hardwick@metoffice.gov.uk [2]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Global climate data sets are available from [3]http://www.hadobs.org Ian "Harry" Harris Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ United Kingdom Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1715. 2005-03-03 13:36:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 3 Mar 2005 13:36:38 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC - please send input asap to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu, Bette Otto-Bleisner Hi all - as you can see from the email below (thanks Fortunat), we REALLY need feedback from ALL of the LA's of chapter 6. As of now, we only have about half of the responses. Please try to make the IPCC a higher priority so that we can ensure a good job - it's hard to imagine a more important goal.. As soon as we have most of the responses, we will compile and circulate. Don't forget the other deadlines that are also near at hand. Please note that we REALLY will need the requested input on other chapters as soon as possible - this is because we are starting to set the agenda for the Beijing meeting, and we want to be in the driver's seat as much as possible. Many thanks for working hard on behalf of our chapter and the IPCC! Best, Peck >o.k. Peck, > >I have not yet seen any other comments. I am of course eager to see what >criticism people have to offer for my parts. Would you mind to compile >everything and send it out? > >cheers,fj > >Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >> >> Hi Fortunat - thanks! A delay on the glossary is fine, just keep it >> coming. Ditto for your feedback on Chapt 7. Thanks again! Peck >> >> >Hi Peck, >> > >> >Here finally the comments on the ZOD. Sorry for the delay. I will >>not be able >> >to respond on the glossary thing by tomorrow. >> > >> >I have a number of substantial suggestios: >> > >> >- Do not include an appendix and supplementary material >> >- reorganize flow of last millennium section >> >- Move model evaluation section into 6.3 >> >- Add solar and volcanic reconstructions for past millennia and GHG data. >> > >> >Regards, >> > >> >Fortunat >> > >> >Quoting Jonathan Overpeck : >> > >> >> Hi all - We have heard from a good number of you, but also have not >> >> heard from some of you. Please note the deadline for the first round >> >> of post-ZOD feedback was yesterday, and more is due next week. If you >> >> have not sent your material, or contacted us yet, please do so as >> >> soon as possible. A small delay is ok, but we need to hear from you >> >> in any case - please respond if you have not already done so. >> >> >> >> Thanks, Peck and Eystein >> >> >> >> >Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2005 11:15:25 -0700 >> >> >To: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu,betteotto-b >> >> >From: Jonathan Overpeck >> >> >Subject: The next round of work is upon us - IMPORTANT >> >> >Cc: >> >> >Bcc: >> >> >X-Attachments: :Macintosh HD:370627:Glossary WgI TARChap6.doc: >> >> > >> >> >Greetings Chap 6 Lead Authors: >> >> > >> >> >By now, the rush up to the ZOD is hopefully but a fond memory, and >> >> >you're ready to get back into the thick of IPCC chapter work. Both >> >> >Chapter 6 and the other chapters are now on the WG 1 website for all >> >> >of you to enjoy and critique. See your email from the WG1 TSU for >> >> >information on how to get ZOD chapters. >> >> > >> >> >As you read our chapter, you will no doubt be thinking - "it's >> >> >really too bad we did so much at the last minute, and that the ZOD >> >> >is so rough." The science is in there, and you all did a great job, >> >> >but in the future, we won't have the luxury of sending an incomplete >> >> >draft to the TSU. The purpose of this email is to set a deliberate >> >> >pace to ensure that our FOD is as perfect and polished as possible. >> >> >Anything short of this will look bad to our colleagues, and will >> >> >cost us more work in the official post-FOD IPCC review process. >> >> >PLEASE MEET ALL DEADLINES below. >> >> > >> >> >Please read all of this communication and NOTE the deadlines - we >> >> >are asking that you all respond quickly on a couple issues. >> >> > >> >> >****1) Due as soon as you read this email - we would like to >> >> >consider a pre-May LA meeting involving all, or a sub-set of LAs, >> >> >and would like to know when you are available to meet for 2 days >> >> >(plus travel to/from US East Coast). The purpose would be to get >> >> >much further ahead with the FOD and to be able make the most of the > > >> >Beijing LA2 meeting in May. Remember how frustrating the Trieste >> >> >meeting was due to the lack of time. Please let us know if you are >> >> >available to meet April 12,13 (Tues/Wed) and April 19,20 (Tues/Wed). >> >> >We will pick the dates that work best. Funding would be handled in >> >> >the usual IPCC manner. >> >> > >> >> > >> >> >****2) Due February 24, 2005 - each person should read ALL of the >> >> >Chapter 6 ZOD. As you do this, please compiling a list of all the > > >> >issues/tasks you think need to be dealt with and completed before >> >> >the FOD. For example: >> >> > >> >> >o what important issues or disagreements remain unresolved and what >> >> >needs to be done to resolve them? >> >> >o what work is needed to make the text better? >> >> >o what key (relevant) science is missing? >> >> >o what key references are missing or need to be updated? >> >> >o are there key display items that need to be deleted or added? >> >> >o what work is needed to make final draft display items? >> >> > >> >> >Each LA should provide the above information to PECK and EYSTEIN on >> > > >a section-by-section basis by February 24. Please let us know NOW if >> >> >you can't meet this deadline. >> >> > >> > > > >> >> >****3) Due March 3, 2005 - (we have to meet a key IPCC deadline) >> >> >-Now that we have our ZOD, we have been requested to provide input >> >> >for the official IPCC AR4 Glossary. Please see the attached glossary >> >> >document, and follow the instructions included at the top of that >> >> >file. THIS IS JUST AS IMPORTANT AS OUR OTHER WORK. Each LA should >> >> >provide this information TO PECK AND EYSTEIN by March 3. Please let >> >> >us know NOW if you can't meet this deadline. >> >> > >> >> > >> >> >****4) Due March 10, 2005 - in Trieste, we assigned Chapter Liaisons >> >> >for each of the other WG1 chapters. This liaison list is attached >> >> >below. Please note that some of you are liaisons for more than one >> >> >other chapter. For each chapter for which you are liaison (and more >> >> >if you are so inspired), please compile: >> >> > >> >> >o a list of substantive scientific suggestions for the LAs of that >> >> >chapter, particularly as they relate to Chapter 6 - don't get bogged >> >> >down in general editing. >> >> >o a list of issues that our Chapter 6 team must work on to ensure >> >> >compatibility with other chapters; in each case, describe the issue >> >> >and how you think it should best be resolved. Ideally, we can do >> >> >much of this before Beijing. >> >> > >> >> >Each LA should provide the above information to PECK and EYSTEIN by >> >> >March 10. Please let us know NOW if you can't meet this deadline. >> >> > >> >> >******************************** >> >> >Lastly, we have some good news. As you all know, Bette Otto-Bleisner >> >> >did a great last-minute job in helping with section 6.4.2 >> >> >(Equilibrium model evaluations), and has made it possible for us to >> >> >tap into PMIP2 in a much needed manner. We clearly need her >> >> >continued major contribution, and thus asked the IPCC WG1 Bureau to >> >> >appoint her to our LA team. Susan Solomon supported this request and >> >> >we recently received a positive response. So, welcome to the team, >> >> >Bette! >> >> > >> >> >PLEASE work hard to meet deadlines - I think we all know what >> >> >happens when deadlines are not met, and we cannot afford to miss >> >> >deadlines any longer. >> >> > >> >> >Thanks, Peck and Eystein >> >> > >> >> > >> >> >Chapter Six - Paleoclimate >> >> >Cross-Chapter Liaisons >> >> > >> >> >Frequency Asked Questions Stefan >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 1. Historical Dominique (served on SAR) >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 2. Radiation Dominique (trace gas, aerosol) >> >> > David (solar, volcanic, aerosol) >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 3. Atmo Obs Keith >> >> > Ramesh >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 4. Cyro Obs Dick (ice sheets >> >> > Olga (mountain ice) >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 5. Ocean Obs. Jean-Claude >> >> > Eystein > > >> > >> >> >Chapter 7. Biogeochem Fortunat (biogeochem) >> >> > Ricardo (veg dynamics) >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 8. Model Eval Bette >> >> > Dick >> >> > Stefan >> >> > David >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 9. Attribution David >> >> > Valerie >> >> > Keith >> >> > >> >> >Chapter 10. Projections David >> >> > Stefan > > >> > >> >> >Chapter 11. Regional Dan >> >> > Ramesh >> >> > Zhang >> >> > Overpeck >> >> > >> >> >-- >> >> > >> >> >Jonathan T. Overpeck >> >> >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> >> >Professor, Department of Geosciences >> >> >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >> > >> >> >Mail and Fedex Address: >> >> > >> >> >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> >> >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >> >> >University of Arizona >> >> >Tucson, AZ 85721 >> >> >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >> >> >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >> >> >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >> >> >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> >> Jonathan T. Overpeck >> >> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> >> Professor, Department of Geosciences >> >> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >> >> >> Mail and Fedex Address: >> >> >> >> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> >> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >> >> University of Arizona >> >> Tucson, AZ 85721 >> >> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >> >> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >> >> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >> >> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> > >> > >> >-- >> >Climate and Environmental Physics >> >Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern >> >Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 >> >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: >> >http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ >> > >> >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Comments_ZOD_fjoos_010305.doc >> >(WDBN/MSWD) (000F4630) >> >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Comments_ZOD_fjoos_010305.pdf >> >(PDF /CARO) (000F4631) >> >> -- >> Jonathan T. Overpeck >> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> Professor, Department of Geosciences >> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >> Mail and Fedex Address: >> >> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >> University of Arizona >> Tucson, AZ 85721 >> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >-- >Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern >Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern >Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: >http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1223. 2005-03-03 16:37:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Mar 3 16:37:44 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: SISB recommendation on phase 2 - THIS ONE IS CONFIDENTIAL to: wigley@ucar.edu Tom, This one isn't widely known ! So for your eyes only. Nothing you couldn't have guessed from the others I've just sent. NERC did move the goalposts during the submission writing. They were asked for a 25 page submission only and given a budget. The reviewing panel wanted more detail and NERC has a large shortfall as reorganizing CEH has left a big hole in their finances. They do seem to believe in their own publicity, rather than solid science and publications to back it all up. Still they have a chance to submit a better proposal, provided a deal can be arranged for the 6 months from October 2005. Cheers Phil X-Sender: f037@pop.uea.ac.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2005 14:04:53 +0000 To: n.adger@uea.ac.uk,kevin.anderson@manchester.ac.uk, n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk,terry.barker@econ.cam.ac.uk, abristow@its.leeds.ac.uk,k.brown@uea.ac.uk,Jim.Hall@ncl.ac.uk, he101@esc.cam.ac.uk,j.a.halliday@rl.ac.uk,j.kohler@uea.ac.uk, brian.launder@manchester.ac.uk,peter.k.stansby@manchester.ac.uk, samantha.jones@uea.ac.uk,m.hulme@uea.ac.uk,h.j.schellnhuber@uea.ac.uk, diana.liverman@eci.ox.ac.uk,a.d.may@its.leeds.ac.uk,rjn@soton.ac.uk, simon.shackley@manchester.ac.uk,j.g.shepherd@soc.soton.ac.uk, a.watkinson@uea.ac.uk,w.j.watson@sussex.ac.uk,m.allen1@physics.ox.ac.uk, p.ekins@psi.org.uk,michael.grubb@imperial.ac.uk,p.jones@uea.ac.uk, chris.west@ukcip.org.uk,paul.wilkinson@lshtm.ac.uk,t.lenton@uea.ac.uk, a.minns@uea.ac.uk,alex.haxeltine@uea.ac.uk From: Mike Hulme Subject: SISB recommendation on phase 2 Dear Phase 2 Co-proposer, We have had the feedback from NERC following the SISB meeting. Two documents are attached, one minuting the SISB recommendation and one from John Lawton to John and I confirming this recommendation. The detailed implications of this recommendation are yet to be revealed/negotiated. This recommendation raises several major challenges for the Tyndall Centre over the next 12 months, not least how we retain staff and maintain any sort of research momentum. This is quite apart from whatever new process we initiate for a re-submitted phase 2 proposal, or indeed other more radical options. Our next step should be to re-convene as a phase 2 proposing group to decide on our response. This should be in London and could be either Mon 14th or Thurs 17th March, or we could use the scheduled Tyndall Council meeting day of Monday 21st March in London, to address the phase 2 challenge. Please indicate your preference and availability to Samantha Jones for 14, 17 or 21 March. Thanks, Mike Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3498. 2005-03-03 16:46:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Mar 3 16:46:54 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: This and that - and CCSP to: wigley@ucar.edu Tom, Off tomorrow and not back in CRU till March 10. I'm not supposed to talk to anyone of the report authors ! There was a lot of odd things said after the presentations in Chicago last week. We're charged with writing a report, which will be published, but you get to rewrite the report and no-one sees the one we looked at ! What is the point of publishing it ! Roger Pielke didn't come out of it too well. Some thought he had some good ideas but didn't express them very well. Most thought he just didn't express them very well. All thought Ben's was the best chapter. Almost all think RSS is right. Also why is Fu et al. dismissed as controversial? Likely most work will be needed on Ch 6 and 1, then 2-4 and least for 5. The Exec Summary was deemed OK, but it isn't a summary of the report, so you'll have to do some major reworking. Remember I didn't tell you all this. Lots of details to come - not sure when. Seems a long-winded process. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3651. 2005-03-06 18:14:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 6 Mar 2005 18:14:37 +0300 (MSK) from: "olgasolomina" subject: Glacier box - comments and suggestions to: jto@u.arizona.edu, eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, Valerie.Masson@cea.fr, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Valerie, Keith, Eystein and Peck, Here are my comments on the glaciers box and suggestions for some improvements. I apologize that I am commenting the text that I was supposed to write myself, but we all know the reason – it was done in a rush and I had very limited access to the literature in the fall. I spent two weeks in Lamont (just came back) and had opportunity to read more. I want to say that I very much appreciate the help and contribution from all people who saved the situation to get the draft for the ZOD, and I hope that we can sharpen it further now. In general my main concerns are the following: 1. We are focusing on the continuous records, which is one of the main achievement of the last years, indeed. But the real continuous records come from Scandinavia only – even the Alps are mostly based on moraine datings (wood etc.). The records from FJL and Brooks Range are not continuous, they are just the same as in any other place in the World, presented as continuous curves. So, two potential strategies can be suggested – to forget the rest of the World and keep the picture Scandinavia and Alps only or add more discontinuos records drawn as curves. I would go for the second solution for obvious reason to keep the global prospective. I attach more curves that I got from publications + I asked Tom Lowell and Wibjorn Karlen to make something of this kind for NZealand and Africa. I suggest to focus in detail (with dates etc.)on the Scandinavian records (as we did in our text), but briefly discuss the general picture of Holocene glacier variations referring to the updated picture. I need your opinion before changing the graphics (see comments and suggestions in “Box comments SO” file) 2. During a good half of the Holocene the glaciers were SMALLER than now. I attach here the figure with the same axes as at the Valerie’ picture (warmest/wettest periods), and the detailed comments on it. To be “scientifically correct” we probably can shade these periods for the regions that we are presenting at our figure (see a separate file “smaller than now” ). What is unusual about the modern retreat is the RATE, though we do not know much about the rate of the former retreat (again because of the lack of continuous records). 3. I changed the introduction. I believe that it is really important to keep the general prospective and mention the exceptions, namely glacier advances (at a Holocene global scale) reflect mostly temperature, therefore a kind of global synchroniety can be visible, though occasionally precipitation may trigger certain advances – maritime and tropical regions are likely to experience it more often than the rest of the World) . Two papers justifying this point of view appeared recently (Oerlemans, 2005, Mayewski et al., 2004) and deserve attention. I included the refs in the updated text. I am ready to discuss further this part, but I believe that we need changes here! I am aware that this will require rather big changes in the text and figure, but I hope we are still at the stage when we can change, can we? I will come soon with comments on the whole text and suggestions for the links to Ch4 (cryosphere), but I am really concern about those glaciers in the box, you know… Regards, olga Thanks! Peck > >>Hello, >> >>Thanks a lot for the remaind. I (eventually!) got access to the >>literature (in Columbia University where I am now) and will come >>soon with comments and improvement of the etxt - at list concerning >>the glaciers in the Holocene and last two millennia. >> >>Regards, >>olga >> >> >>>Hi all - We have heard from a good number of you, but also have not >>>heard from some of you. Please note the deadline for the first round >>>of post-ZOD feedback was yesterday, and more is due next week. If you >>>have not sent your material, or contacted us yet, please do so as >>>soon as possible. A small delay is ok, but we need to hear from you >>>in any case - please respond if you have not already done so. >>> >>>Thanks, Peck and Eystein >>> >>>>Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2005 11:15:25 -0700 >>>>To: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu,betteotto-b >>>>From: Jonathan Overpeck >>>>Subject: The next round of work is upon us - IMPORTANT >>>>Cc: >>>>Bcc: >>>>X-Attachments: :Macintosh HD:370627:Glossary WgI TARChap6.doc: >>>> >>>>Greetings Chap 6 Lead Authors: >>>> >>>>By now, the rush up to the ZOD is hopefully but a fond memory, and >>>>you're ready to get back into the thick of IPCC chapter work. Both >>>>Chapter 6 and the other chapters are now on the WG 1 website for all >>>>of you to enjoy and critique. See your email from the WG1 TSU for >>>>information on how to get ZOD chapters. >>>> >>>>As you read our chapter, you will no doubt be thinking - "it's >>>>really too bad we did so much at the last minute, and that the ZOD >>>>is so rough." The science is in there, and you all did a great job, >>>>but in the future, we won't have the luxury of sending an incomplete >>>>draft to the TSU. The purpose of this email is to set a deliberate >>>>pace to ensure that our FOD is as perfect and polished as possible. >>>>Anything short of this will look bad to our colleagues, and will >>>>cost us more work in the official post-FOD IPCC review process. >>>>PLEASE MEET ALL DEADLINES below. >>>> >>>>Please read all of this communication and NOTE the deadlines - we >>>>are asking that you all respond quickly on a couple issues. >>>> >>>>****1) Due as soon as you read this email - we would like to >>>>consider a pre-May LA meeting involving all, or a sub-set of LAs, >>>>and would like to know when you are available to meet for 2 days >>>>(plus travel to/from US East Coast). The purpose would be to get >>>>much further ahead with the FOD and to be able make the most of the >>>>Beijing LA2 meeting in May. Remember how frustrating the Trieste >>>>meeting was due to the lack of time. Please let us know if you are >>>>available to meet April 12,13 (Tues/Wed) and April 19,20 (Tues/Wed). >>>>We will pick the dates that work best. Funding would be handled in >>>>the usual IPCC manner. >>>> >>>> >>>>****2) Due February 24, 2005 - each person should read ALL of the >>>>Chapter 6 ZOD. As you do this, please compiling a list of all the >>>>issues/tasks you think need to be dealt with and completed before >>>>the FOD. For example: >>>> >>>>o what important issues or disagreements remain unresolved and what >>>>needs to be done to resolve them? >>>>o what work is needed to make the text better? >>>>o what key (relevant) science is missing? >>>>o what key references are missing or need to be updated? >>>>o are there key display items that need to be deleted or added? >>>>o what work is needed to make final draft display items? >>>> >>>>Each LA should provide the above information to PECK and EYSTEIN on >>>>a section-by-section basis by February 24. Please let us know NOW if >>>>you can't meet this deadline. >>>> >>>> >>>>****3) Due March 3, 2005 - (we have to meet a key IPCC deadline) >>>>-Now that we have our ZOD, we have been requested to provide input >>>>for the official IPCC AR4 Glossary. Please see the attached glossary >>>>document, and follow the instructions included at the top of that >>>>file. THIS IS JUST AS IMPORTANT AS OUR OTHER WORK. Each LA should >>>>provide this information TO PECK AND EYSTEIN by March 3. Please let >> >>us know NOW if you can't meet this deadline. >>>> >>>> >>>>****4) Due March 10, 2005 - in Trieste, we assigned Chapter Liaisons >>>>for each of the other WG1 chapters. This liaison list is attached >>>>below. Please note that some of you are liaisons for more than one >>>>other chapter. For each chapter for which you are liaison (and more >>>>if you are so inspired), please compile: >>>> >>>>o a list of substantive scientific suggestions for the LAs of that >>>>chapter, particularly as they relate to Chapter 6 - don't get bogged >>>>down in general editing. >>>>o a list of issues that our Chapter 6 team must work on to ensure >>>>compatibility with other chapters; in each case, describe the issue >>>>and how you think it should best be resolved. Ideally, we can do >>>>much of this before Beijing. >>>> >>>>Each LA should provide the above information to PECK and EYSTEIN by >>>>March 10. Please let us know NOW if you can't meet this deadline. >>>> >>>>******************************** >>>>Lastly, we have some good news. As you all know, Bette Otto-Bleisner >>>>did a great last-minute job in helping with section 6.4.2 >>>>(Equilibrium model evaluations), and has made it possible for us to >>>>tap into PMIP2 in a much needed manner. We clearly need her >>>>continued major contribution, and thus asked the IPCC WG1 Bureau to >>>>appoint her to our LA team. Susan Solomon supported this request and >>>>we recently received a positive response. So, welcome to the team, >>>>Bette! >>>> >>>>PLEASE work hard to meet deadlines - I think we all know what >>>>happens when deadlines are not met, and we cannot afford to miss >>>>deadlines any longer. >>>> >>>>Thanks, Peck and Eystein >>>> >>>> >>>>Chapter Six - Paleoclimate >>>>Cross-Chapter Liaisons >>>> >>>>Frequency Asked Questions Stefan >>>> >>>>Chapter 1. Historical Dominique (served on SAR) >>>> >>>>Chapter 2. Radiation Dominique (trace gas, aerosol) >>>> David (solar, volcanic, aerosol) >>>> >>>>Chapter 3. Atmo Obs Keith >>>> Ramesh >>>> >>>>Chapter 4. Cyro Obs Dick (ice sheets >>>> Olga (mountain ice) >>>> >>>>Chapter 5. Ocean Obs. Jean-Claude >>>> Eystein >>>> >>>>Chapter 7. Biogeochem Fortunat (biogeochem) >>>> Ricardo (veg dynamics) >>>> >>>>Chapter 8. Model Eval Bette >>>> Dick >>>> Stefan >>>> David >>>> >>>>Chapter 9. Attribution David >>>> Valerie >>>> Keith >>>> >>>>Chapter 10. Projections David >>>> Stefan >>>> >>>>Chapter 11. Regional Dan >>>> Ramesh >>>> Zhang >>>> Overpeck >>>> >>>>-- >>>> >>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>>> >>>>Mail and Fedex Address: >>>> >>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>>University of Arizona >>>>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >>> >>>-- >>>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>> >>>Mail and Fedex Address: >>> >>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>University of Arizona >>>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> >>-- >>Dr.Olga Solomina >>Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences >>Institute of Geography RAS >>Staromonetny-29 >>Moscow, Russia >>tel: 007-095-125-90-11, 007-095-939-01-21 >>fax: 007-095-959-00-33 >>e-mail: olgasolomina@yandex.ru >>PAGES Web:www.pages-igbp.org > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Dr.Olga Solomina Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Geography RAS Staromonetny-29 Moscow, Russia tel: 007-095-125-90-11, 007-095-939-01-21 fax: 007-095-959-00-33 e-mail: olgasolomina@yandex.ru PAGES Web:www.pages-igbp.org -- ñÎÄÅËÓ.ðÏÞÔÁ: ÏÂßÅÍ ÐÏÞÔÏ×ÏÇÏ ÑÝÉËÁ ÎÅÏÇÒÁÎÉÞÅÎ! http://mail.yandex.ru/monitoring/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Box commentsSO.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\ipcc smaller than now.doc" 1104. 2005-03-08 10:41:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 10:41:54 +0100 from: Heinz Wanner subject: Hockeystick to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, I am quite amused about the fact that everybody wants to express his/her concern about the hocheystick story. It is in a certain sense ridiculous, on the other hand we have to define our position. I had to give several interviews (TV, radio, newspapers) but tried just to explain science. Now an old story is warmed up. I was a reviewer of the IPCC-TAR report 2001. In my review which I can not find again in its precise wording I critcized the fact that the whole Mann hockeytick is being printed in its full length in the IPCC-TAR report. In 1999 I made the following comments: 1. The spatial, temporal (tree-ring data in the midlatitudes mainly contain "summer information") and spectral coverage and behaviour of the data is questionable, mainly before 1500-1600 AD. 2. It is in my opinion not appropriate already to make statements for the southern hemisphere and for the period prior to 1500 AD. My review was classified "unsignificant" even I inquired several times. Now the internationally well known newspaper SPIEGEL got the information about these early statements because I expressed my opinion in several talks, mainly in Germany, in 2002 and 2003. I just refused to give an exclusive interview to SPIEGEL because I will not cause damage for climate science. I just told a woman from SPIEGEL that I do carefully follow the activities and the forthcoming of the next IPCC report and I will then take position concerning the paleoclimate chapter there. I thought it is meaningful to infomr you about this fact. Cheers, Heinz --------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Heinz Wanner, Prof., Director of NCCR (National Center of Competence in Research in Climate) --------------------------------------------------------------- Office Institute of Geography: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 8885 Phone +41 (0)31 631 3160 Fax +41 (0)31 631 8511 Fax +41 (0)31 631 4383 www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch e-mail: heinz.wanner@giub.unibe.ch --------------------------------------------------------------- 2698. 2005-03-08 16:49:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 08 Mar 2005 16:49:57 +0100 from: Heinz Wanner subject: Re: Hockeystick to: Keith Briffa Dear Keith, thanks for the quick answer. For me it is absolutely clear that I will not tear down the excellent IPCC work. For that reason I do actually not give an interview to SPIEGEL. I am also a bit irritated about some reactions of Hans von Storch concerning this story. I will contact him personally (and friendly). Just two additional comments: 1) I am ready to review the paleoclimate section you are writing and editing for IPCC because it covers one of my central interests. 2) I will really help to push the whole reconstruction story within PAGES and PAGES-CLIVAR. In our group we will not be active in constructing another 1000 years hockeystick, but we will carefully go on in reconstructing high-quality temperature and precipitation for the period from 1000 to 2005 AD in the Atlantic-European area (in collaboration with our mathematics and statistics institute). I hope to see you in Vienna in April or at least at the next SOAP meeting. Heinz --------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Heinz Wanner, Prof., Director of NCCR (National Center of Competence in Research in Climate) --------------------------------------------------------------- Office Institute of Geography: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 8885 Phone +41 (0)31 631 3160 Fax +41 (0)31 631 8511 Fax +41 (0)31 631 4383 www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch e-mail: heinz.wanner@giub.unibe.ch --------------------------------------------------------------- 2133. 2005-03-09 17:37:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 9 Mar 2005 17:37:28 +0000 (GMT) from: Martin Juckes subject: Draft for temperature reconstruction proposal to: mitrie -- Anders Moberg , Eduardo Zorita , , Jan Esper , Keith Briffa , Martin Juckes , Myles Allen , Hello, another draft is attached. This has to go in tomorrow, so hopefully there are no dramatic changes needed. I will add more references, and the finance figures are not fully checked, so they don't add up to the full 80,000 Euros yet. I haven't heard from BertJan Heij yet about the prospective start date, but it could be as sonnas April, in which case we will have to complete by September. I think this is realistic, provided we all agree with the general aims. I think a workshop in or near Oxford is the easiest option. The Rutherford Laboratory has a small conference facility in Abingdon, about 7 miles from Oxford, which would be suitable. If possible, I think it would be good to have the workshop in July. Can you tell me how you would rate weeks starting: 4 July 11 July 18 July 29 July 1 August 8 August thanks, Martin Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\draft_03.ps" 4093. 2005-03-11 08:41:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 11 08:41:18 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: Application for Fellowship ref 00022570 to: "Althea Howard" Althea, Back in Norwich now. I don't recall meeting this person in Birmingham in 1999. Likely my fault as I meet a lot of people. I only recall 2-3 emails many years ago. I suspect Brian will not recall him either. Looking at his 'application' form, he doesn't have that many real references. He looks to be retired. Being an editor on Climate Research is something I wouldn't put on my CV. It is a discredited journal in the field. Most of the people he puts in the email (the 4 in the US and the other 5 are mainly greenhouse skeptics - although Changnon, Landsea and Pielke are mainstream climatologists). So, I'd be wary of accepting him as a fellow. Mike Hulme isn't at the Hadley Centre, but here at UEA (m.hulme@uea.ac.uk). My only other link with him occurred in late 2003. Usborne books (a British publishing house had a good book for kids (12-14 yr olds)) yet a group of Canadians (including Khandekar) complained to the publishers about the content of one of their series on Global Warming. Usborne got me to read through the book and assess their critical comments, which were groundless. I did think at the time that this was being very petty. Hope this helps in any decision. Cheers Phil At 08:32 09/03/2005, you wrote: Here it is Phil....many thanks. Althea Howard (Ms) Membership, Subscriptions and Accounts Royal Meteorological Society 104 Oxford Road Reading RG1 7LL Tel 0118 9568500, Fax 0118 9568571 membership@rmets.org ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Madhav Khandekar [[1]mailto:mkhandekar@rogers.com] Sent: 05 March 2005 00:50 To: Althea Howard Subject: RE: Application for Fellowship ref 00022570 Dear Ms Howard During my attendance to IUGG Conference in Birmingham, UK(1999), I met following UK scientists ( only briefly) who would be aware of my research. 1: Dr. Phil Jones, University of east Anglia, UK ( Phil and I have communicated with each other extensively thru e-mails). 2: Prof. Brian Hoskins, University of Reading, UK ( I met and discussed only briefly with Prof. Hoskins during IUGG). During my wave modeling work at Environment Canada, I attended several annual meetings in Europe ( from 1988 thru 1993) and have met a few UK wave modelers. Notable among them are: 1: Ms Rachael Stratton ( she used to work in wave modeling group at UK Met office some 15 years ago. I understand she works at present with climate molders like Dr. Gareth Jones and others at UK Climate Modeling Group). 2: Dr. Peter A.E.M. Janssen, originally from Netherlands, now working on global ocean wave models at ECMWF in Reading, UK. More recently at the Climate Change Conference in Moscow ( July 2004), I met Dr. Mike Hulme, a climate scientist with UK climate modeling Group at Exeter, UK. In my editorial work, I often communicate with several US scientists, notable among them are: 1: Prof. Roger Pielke, Sr, Dept of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA 2: Prof. Robert Balling Jr, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA 3: Dr. Stanley Changnon, Climatologist ( Emeritus) at Illinois State Water Survey, USA 4. Dr. Christopher Landsea, Hurricane specialist, NOAA Laboratory, Miami, USA Some of the scientists living elsewhere with whom I often communicate are: 1. Dr. Chris de Freitas, University of Auckland, New Zealand 2. Dr. Vincent Gray, retd. Scientist and IPCC external reviewer, Wellington, New Zealand 3. Prof. Kevin Walsh, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 4. Prof. Nils-Axel Morner, Head, Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, University of Stockholm, Sweden. 5. Dr. Paul Reiter, Scientist & Head of Insect & Infectious Disease, Pasteur Institute, Paris You may want to find out if some of these scientists are Fellows of RMS and you may be able to obtain a supporting reference on my behalf. For your ready reference and use, I am enclosing a brief bio-data of mine in an electronic form ( [2]File:MLK bio, revised) Let me know if you need any other info in this connection. Thank you Sincerely Madhav Khandekar Unionville, ON, L3R 7Z5 Canada -----Original Message----- From: Althea Howard [[3]mailto:Althea.Howard@rmets.org] Sent: Friday, March 04, 2005 10:30 AM To: mkhandekar@rogers.com Subject: Application for Fellowship ref 00022570 Dear Dr Khandekar, Many thanks for your application, but unfortunately we are not able to arrange sponsors for you. I note that you are a member of both the AMS and CMOS, so if you are acquainted with any members of those Societies I can check to see if they are Fellows of the Royal Met Soc. and you could then approach them as potential sponsors. I look forward to hearing from you again, Best regards, Althea Howard (Ms) Membership, Subscriptions and Accounts Royal Meteorological Society 104 Oxford Road Reading RG1 7LL Tel 0118 9568500, Fax 0118 9568571 membership@rmets.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1213. 2005-03-11 08:59:05 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 11 08:59:05 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: This and that - and CCSP to: Tom Wigley Tom, In Asheville this week but now back. Had a brief work with Tom K. on the VTT work. So he got a summary like you. I'm not supposed to be talking to anyone of your group except through Tom K. I've just got comments on your exec summ from Dennis Hartmann. I'll go through these this weekend. I think I've effectively signed off on Chapters 3 and 5. You'll likely have to rewrite the summary to pick up the bullet points from the other 6 chapters. Hopefully you'll get comments before May 1. We have to finish by April 1 (there is a conf call on the 18th), which will hopefully be it for me. At the moment the NRC person is having difficulty with my following comment - There is an issue related to land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes that >could be addressed here or maybe elsewhere in other chapters. This is >that in the modeling discussion (in Chapters 5 and 6) LULC is considered >to be a forcing that is in some models and not incorporated in others as >the forcing and its history is uncertain. If it is a forcing (and we >think it is), then we should not be worrying that it influences the >surface or tropospheric temperature record. If it is a forcing then it >needs to be in the data in the order that it might be found. You can't >have it both ways - the data are affected by it, so they are somehow >wrong, yet it is omitted from many models." I do need to work on the English a little, but it should be understandable. Tom K is also very fed up with Pielke ! Cheers Phil PS Have you been getting postcards from Thomson publishing (?) about essential science indicators. I have 3, for 3 papers saying they've been heavily cited. The 3 are from 1997-2003 and have been cited 57, 68 and 41 times ! 3 articles in the top 1% of the field. Articles are the one with Anders Moberg in 2003, one in Science on the last millennium in 2001 and the one on error estimates from 1997. At 23:46 10/03/2005, you wrote: THanx Phil. Some comments in caps .... Tom =========== Phil Jones wrote: BEN WAS REALLY PISSED OFF WITH ROGER -- AS WAS TOM KARL I GUESS (NOT YET TALKED TO HIM). ALL OF HIS POINTS CAN BE SHOT DOWN, BUT IT IS A PAIN NONE THE LESS. APPARENLTY JUDY CURRY EXPOSED HER INFERIORITY COMPLEX (ANS HER INFERIORITY). Tom, Off tomorrow and not back in CRU till March 10. I'm not supposed to talk to anyone of the report authors ! There was a lot of odd things said after the presentations in Chicago last week. We're charged with writing a report, which will be published, but you get to rewrite the report and no-one sees the one we looked at ! What is the point of publishing it ! Roger Pielke didn't come out of it too well. Some thought he had some good ideas but didn't express them very well. Most thought he just didn't express them very well. All thought Ben's was the best chapter. Almost all think RSS is right. Also why is Fu et al. dismissed as controversial? A VERY GOOD POINT TO STRESS. THIS IS CHRISTY'S WORDING. Likely most work will be needed on Ch 6 and 1, then 2-4 and least for 5. The Exec Summary was deemed OK, but it isn't a summary of the report, ACTUALLY, IT IS. ALL ITEMS *ARE* IN THE CHAPTERS -- BUT ONLY THOSE DEEMED MOST IMPORTANT (BY ALL EXCEPT ROGER!!) MAYBE I WILL HAVE TO DO ANOTHER (SIDE) VERSION THAT CITES THE SOURCES BY CHAPTER AND LINE NUMBER. so you'll have to do some major reworking. Remember I didn't tell you all this. Lots of details to come - not sure when. Seems a long-winded process. COMMENTS DUE BY MAY 1, THEN WE HAVE 2 WEEKS TO MODIFY/RESPOND. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3737. 2005-03-11 12:04:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 12:04:28 -0000 from: "Laura Middleton" subject: Dangerous climate change - brown bag lunch,1-2, Tues 15 March, to: , "'Woodgate Fiona Mrs \(ENV\) e438'" , , , , , , , -All welcome and bring your sandwiches!- (Re)Thinking the dangers of climate change: perceptions and communication This informal lunchtime discussion will focus on: - how climate change is currently portrayed by scientists, media and government, - how climate change is perceived by the public, - the influence of climate change communication on individual behaviour. It will draw upon the outcomes of the recent Exeter conference on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference and the now completed Dangerous Climate Change project. We will comment upon how the media covered the findings of the ADCC conference, how Hollywood has capitalised on some potentially dangerous impacts of climate change (in the blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow) and how these relate to public perceptions of climate change. We will also link the lessons learnt from our work with the recently launched DEFRA climate change communication strategy. This in itself is set out to alter individual attitudes to climate change, not enact behavioural change. Questions to discuss could include: - What does 'dangerous' climate change mean? Is it a useful concept? Can / should it be defined? By whom? - What does this imply for policy making? Are current activities / initiatives to address climate change likely to be successful? - Given that groups within society portray climate change differently, is one preferable over others, in terms of motivating individuals to reduce their contributions to climate change? - Are there other factors that need to be considered or enacted before individuals change their behaviours, such as enabling them to do so by increasing the saliency of climate change and creating agency? Irene Lorenzoni, Tom Lowe and Sophie Nicholson-Cole CER / Tyndall For more info see: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/events/events_timetable.shtml http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/forum/messages/archive/dangerous.html Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\winmail64.dat" 926. 2005-03-11 15:16:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 11 15:16:38 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: AGG Meeting to: Richard Thigpen Dick, I know all the African problems, but we need to try. Trying to go to the Cairo workshop would be a good way, if many countries go. This would help in more ways than one. You'll get to use the software and meet the people on the ground and see who comes. Also we're going to be discussing an issue with CLIMATs at AOPC. This is item 6.7 on the agenda Hans has sent around. This is how the countries calculate their mean daily and hence mean monthly values. We discussed this in the context of the conf call last year re the Antarctic stations. There has been some discussion over emails for the last few months on this and we need to come up with an AOPC decision to recommend to CCL on this. If we don't we may have to pick up the pieces the new software will produce. If you ever get any queries on this, countries should stick with the method they have always used, not change to some method that might give better absolute values. If there is anyone I should tell how important it is for you to go to Cairo then let me know. Cheers Phil At 13:41 11/03/2005, you wrote: Phil, Yes, but...... Africa is what, 80 countries? Most have not answered me yet. Much easier said than done but still that's what we need to decide. I may have some data rescue efforts starting there soon. Brazil has politely told me to leave them alone, its their business. Perhaps Carolina Vera can help us find a leverage point there. I think Karpov said the Cairo workshop was to be in the second quarter. No dates when he told me that but I'll find out. Actually I would like to attend one just to see how easy our software really is. Should be a good AGG/AOPC meeting. See you soon. Dick Phil Jones wrote: Dick, OK, understand about the workshops. We should try in AOPC to link these with the other GCOS workshops and inform any future ones about the ETCCDMI (the extremes ones - like the one in Pune).Tom Peterson should have a report on this last one in CLIVAR Exchanges. These workshops (the Pune) have led to papers, so we can decide from them where we need other improvements. The big hole in S. America was the Amazon part of Brazil, so we should push Brazil for more there. With Canada and Russia sorted and maybe Mexico, the next big area should be Africa. There was a workshop in Cape Town, but there were a number of no shows, so we need to try to coax a number of African countries to begin transmitting. Maybe the Cairo workshop will help there. Do you know when that one will be? I think with the GSN we need to work on a few areas - Africa is the main one and also the Brazilian Amazon. Cheers Phil At 12:20 11/03/2005, you wrote: Hello Phil, The workshops I mean are the ones begun by WWW where they actually teach operators how to do CLIMAT and CLIMAT TEMP. The first was in Moscow and the second is planned for Cairo. They teach the software that we financed as well as the basic handbook that WWW produced. They (WWW) will need support if we want them to move quickly. So I'd like to get AOPC to tell GCOS it is a high priority. (Or not) As far as priorities, I believe we need them for both GUAN and GSN. As you note, GSN is not as much a money issue but the money I have been getting is "for" GUAN so no choice. I will send some background for at least Mexico soon. Do you have an opinion of the next "big" area? We got Russia, Brazil, Canada revisions. To me we are getting down to the ones and twos here and there. Cheers Dick Phil Jones wrote: Dick, Been in Asheville this week, but now back. Hans has put a good deal of time into the AOPC agenda for AGG. We do need to have some priorities if we have more money. This should be GSN rather than GUAN this time I feel, but I realise that GUAN will still take most of the money as GSN mods are relatively cheap. So, some up with some suggestions and we can prioritize at AOPC. The climate workshops - are these the ones that have developed indices? Like the one I went to in Pune last month, or do you mean the ones like Delhi? We do need to work on the voids in the GSN network. So, do all you can before AOPC. If you want to send me something sooner, then do and I'll go through it. I'll be away the week before AOPC and I'm coming straight from that meeting in Bologna to Geneva. Cheers Phil At 14:11 07/03/2005, you wrote: Good Day Phil, I am beginning to think about the up-coming AGG/AOPC meeting. A few topics that I hope we can cover; A new GUAN priority list (in case we get more money) I am working with Mexico to revise their GSN list. Anyone preferences are welcome/timely. Overall priorities for whatever funding we can get. CLIMAT workshops, data rescue projects, etc. How do these compare to GUAN renovations where most of the money has gone? Some of the big voids, such as in Asia, South America, Pacific. Another look/ discussion of the Pacific. Given the state of some of the countries, should we add additional stations even if the distribution isn't perfect? I will get together the background (maps, etc.) that we will need. Any other topics you want to get prepared for? Some of these are AOPC topics but perhaps an AGG review first. Cheers Dick Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3528. 2005-03-11 15:23:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: , date: Fri Mar 11 15:23:47 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: AOPC-XI: 2nd Mailing to: "Hans Teunissen" Hans, Fine re the Mon Repos. Been emailing Dick re AGG. He asked for the big issues we should cope with re the GSN and GUAN. I said Africa. Now he's complaining that this is 80 countries. We have to start somewhere though, which is what I've told him. We also have to get Brazil to do more. They have apparently told Dick to leave them alone. Maybe Carolina Vera can be some help here? There is a workshop on making CLIMATs in Cairo relatively soon - Karpov is organising it. Dick should go to this if poss. Also we should send this group our recommendation re how to calculate CLIMATs, just to be sure they are not recommending countries do something new or different from what they always did. Geting a better absolute mean is one thing, but it will likely screw up the homogeneity of the long series. Cheers Phil At 13:46 11/03/2005, Hans Teunissen wrote: Thanks for the feedback/update, Phil. Re Item 6.7, that's the issue of whether to determine mean monthlies from max-plus-min-over-2 or from averages of hourly values. It was driven by the query from Malta, you may recall, and a certain Phil Jones volunteered Jones and Peterson to talk about it at AOPC (I've just forwarded you some background info I have). Idea is to get CCl onside, I think. I have some other bumff on this, but not in an easily-sendable form. I'll have it at the meeting of course. Maybe we should also try to get some CCl-types there for that (besides Tom, of course!) - I'll check with WCP here. Glad you'll be at the dinner - a bit of a tradition now, I guess. We had considered moving it elsewhere, just for a change, but that would complicate the transportation (unless we book at La Perle du Lac, for example, but that would probably blow the week's per diem!). People are scattered at various hotels, including the Mon Repos. Going for dinner after the session here means it''s easy to at least get to dinner, and the trip to hotel would have to be done anyway. A bientot, Hans. >>> Phil Jones 11.03.05 14:20:24 >>> Hans, I'm in contact with Dick about AGG matters. We're trying to come up with priorities for the next year. Thanks for giving the AGG sufficient time in the current agenda. As for the rest of the agenda, I can talk a little about paleo (say 20 mins). Also some things on the Reanalysis in area 10. Glad you've got David Parker talking about the Surface Pressure WG. I can chip in there if needed. Also I may be able to say something more on the vertical temperature trends as I'm on the NRC review of this CCSP report. Consolidation of the GSN will come from the AGG report back. Not sure what you mean by mean monthly statistics in 6.7. Hopefully Tom P does. OK for the dinner at the Mon Repos. I don't think we're staying there - see Natasha as to where we are, but still OK. I just thought you might want to consider somewhere else nearer to our hotels. If I recall correctly I'm at the Edelweiss in town. I'm in Bologna the week before, so can't pick up any files after April 5. Cheers Phil At 14:17 09/03/2005, you wrote: Dear All: Attached please find an update of the Provisional Agenda for the AOPC-XI session next month in Geneva. This is based on the Agenda Outline distributed in January, taking into account suggested modifcations and giving more detail re the anticipated timing of the meeting. We have also assigned document numbers where we think appropriate, and would ask that participants review this assignment carefully for any needed modifcations, additions or deletions (silence means you will provide the document indicated for your item!). Documents will be posted on the AOPC-XI Web site ([1]http://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/aopcXI) which we'll activate next week. I have also attached another copy of the Action Items status list to remind everyone of ongoing and/or expected activities. Please send any corrections to the agenda back to me (and Mike) as soon as possible, and we can make appropriate adjustments in the next version. As usual, we have planned an informal group dinner (self-funded) at the Mon Repos for the Tuesday evening (see Agenda). You might wish to let us know if you'll be available to attend that dinner; we'll finalize just before then, as usual. We look forward to seeing everyone next month in Geneva for a productive and enjoyable meeting. Best regards, Hans Teunissen. ================================================================= Dr. Hans W. Teunissen Tel: +41.22.730.8086 Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Fax: +41.22.730.8052 c/o World Meteorological Organization E-mail: [2]HTeunissen@wmo.int 7 bis, Ave. de la Paix CP 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland ================================================================= Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4289. 2005-03-11 15:26:50 ______________________________________________________ cc: , , , , date: Fri, 11 Mar 2005 15:26:50 +0000 from: "Philip Newton" subject: RE: RAPID Steering Committee to: , "Andy Parsons" Dear Simon (and listeners), Many thanks for your response. You may or may not know that Sandy raised similar concerns, which we have debated at length both by e-mail and phone, and Sandy has done an excellent job in presenting these views. It is clear that you both feel that asking the SC to discuss this issue under AOB at the last meeting, and then to provide inputs by correspondence, was insufficient, and of course I can understand why you feel this is so. I can see, in retrospect, that there would have been greater buy-in and accountability from the SC had there been a formal paper on the subject, and will bear this in mind in future such exercises in other programmes. (I note, for the record, that decisions on SC membership are for NERC, in conjunction with the SC Chair, so there has been no transgression of NERC policy). It is perhaps unfortunate that the criteria applied do not take into account the willingness of individuals to continue to contribute. But I can assure you that programme integration will not fall by the wayside in the remaining stages of the programme, and I see this as my main responsibility as programme manager. In evidence, I offer the fact that programme integration has effectively been a standing item at the last few SC meetings, and that the bulk of the science co-ordination effort is channelled towards integration. You have indeed played a key role in the programme to date, and I do not necessarily see that stepping down from the SC has to end this. SC membership, as you know, is just one of many ways of contributing to a community programme. For example, although we have asked Richard Wood to be the single representative of the Hadley Centre, we would often expect him to represent institutional viewpoints. Moreover, I seem to recall that you are a collaborator on some RAPID grants (forgive me if I misremember), and may have some natural involvement in the model-integration work that Jonathan Gregory is leading. I would very much hope that you might have the time to contribute in such ways. We would also welcome your participation at annual meetings. You were not sent the SC papers for the 17 March meeting on the assumption that you would accept the invitation to step down from the SC. Sandy rightly questioned whether this invitation to step down was a euphemism for something a little more dictatorial, and I hope that he is now convinced that it wasn't! If you don't wish to step down, please get back to me (ideally before the 17 March SC) and we can discuss how to take matters forward. With best wishes, and so sorry to hear that your wife is still unwell, Phil Dr Philip Newton Deputy Director, Science & Innovation/Marine Sciences Manager Natural Environment Research Council Polaris House North Star Avenue Swindon SN2 1EU, UK. Tel: +44 (0) 1793 411636 Fax: +44 (0) 1793 411545 E-mail: ppn@nerc.ac.uk >>> "Tett, Simon" 11/03/2005 09:37:49 >>> Dear Andy (CC Others who may have a view), thank you for your letter inviting me to resign from the scientific steering committee of Rapid. I am sorry for the delay in responding. I have just returned to work from two weeks sick leave. I understand the argument for a smaller committee. I also note Phil's point having two people from the Met Office. However I think that membership of the SSC is an issue that the SSC should properly discuss. The SSC should at least come to some view about principles for continued (or new ) membership. My recall of our last discussion on this subject was that it was rather inconclusive. This is not particularly surprising as the item was discussed late in the day after a long meeting mainly devoted to proposal review. I have been involved in activities that led to Rapid since 1997 and played a key role in part of them. I would very much like to see the program through to its conclusion. In particular I wish to continue banging the drum for program integration. I note I do not have papers for the March 17th meeting which, due to my Wife's ill-health, I am unlikely to be able to attend. Yours Simon Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org -----Original Message----- From: Andy Parsons [mailto:apar@nerc.ac.uk] Sent: 01 March 2005 16:42 To: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk Subject: RAPID Steering Committee Dear Simon, Please find attached a letter from Phil Newton regarding the RAPID Steering Committee. Regards, Andy Dr. Andy Parsons RAPID Programme Administrator Natural Environment Research Council Polaris House North Star Avenue Swindon SN2 1EU Tel +44 (0)1793 411679 Mobile: +44 (0)7881 845111 Fax +44 (0)1793 411545 andy.parsons@nerc.ac.uk The information contained in this email may be subject to public disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act 2000. Unless the information is legally exempt from disclosure, the confidentiality of this email and your reply cannot be guaranteed. 3195. 2005-03-11 16:03:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 11 16:03:18 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: out in "Science Express" to: s.raper@uea.ac.uk Hi Sarah, the attached isn't directly relevant to you, as it's using glacier lengths to estimate temperatures, rather than using temperature to drive a glacier model. But I thought you might find it interesting anyway. Tim Date: Mon, 07 Mar 2005 07:41:34 +0000 To: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk From: Phil Jones Subject: Fwd: out in "Science Express" X-Sender: mem6u@holocene.evsc.virginia.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.1.1 Date: Sat, 05 Mar 2005 08:17:17 -0500 To: rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, Keith Briffa , Phil Jones , jto@u.arizona.edu, Caspar Ammann , "Wahl, Eugene R" From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: out in "Science Express" X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-UEA-MailScanner-SpamScore: s FYI, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5256. 2005-03-11 16:50:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 11 16:50:45 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: This and that - and CCSP to: Tom Wigley Tom, Thanks for that. I was just about to get around to rewording that and sending it back. I had to read the first draft of the comments on the Executive Summary from one of the other panel members. Although there is a lot to do, I think you'll like some of them. Many of the other chapter authors may not, though ! Maybe we'll end up with some more dissenters ! A lot relate to Fu et al as you might have guessed. We have a conf call next Friday at 4pm my time, when hopefully we'll get something towards closure on this. I've only had emails from two people on the panel and the secretary since I left Chicago. Unfortunately Mike Wallace doesn't seem to have had time to look through Ch 5 (well very briefly). He was only on the conf call in Chicago for 30 minutes. He didn't say much. Cheers Phil At 16:12 11/03/2005, you wrote: SEE BELOW -- SAME THING SAID TWICE Phil Jones wrote: Tom, In Asheville this week but now back. Had a brief work with Tom K. on the VTT work. So he got a summary like you. I'm not supposed to be talking to anyone of your group except through Tom K. I've just got comments on your exec summ from Dennis Hartmann. I'll go through these this weekend. I think I've effectively signed off on Chapters 3 and 5. You'll likely have to rewrite the summary to pick up the bullet points from the other 6 chapters. Hopefully you'll get comments before May 1. We have to finish by April 1 (there is a conf call on the 18th), which will hopefully be it for me. At the moment the NRC person is having difficulty with my following comment - There is an issue related to land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes that >could be addressed here or maybe elsewhere in other chapters. This is >that in the modeling discussion (in Chapters 5 and 6) LULC is considered >to be a forcing AND IN CH. 1 that is in some models and not incorporated in others as >the forcing and its history is uncertain. If it is a forcing NOTE WORDING -- *NOT* A FORCING? (and we >think it is 'IS' OR 'IS NOT' -- AMBIGUOUS IF NOT CAREFULLY WORDDED ), then we should not be worrying that it influences the >surface or tropospheric temperature record. If it is a forcing ???? SAME THING TWICE ??? then it >needs to be in the data WHAT DATA? YOU CAN'T HAVE A FORCING IN THE TEMP DATA -- BUT YOU COULD HAVE THE *EFFECTS* OF A FORCING IN THE TEMP DATA in the order that it might be found. You can't >have it both ways - the data are affected by it, so they are somehow >wrong, yet it is omitted from many models." GOOD GRIEF -- I HAVE RARELY READ ANYTHING SO POORLY WORDED!! I do need to work on the English a little BOY -- WHAT AN UNDERSTATEMENT , but it should be understandable. Tom K is also very fed up with Pielke ! Cheers Phil PS Have you been getting postcards from Thomson publishing (?) NO about essential science indicators. I have 3, for 3 papers saying they've been heavily cited. The 3 are from 1997-2003 and have been cited 57, 68 and 41 times ! PER YEAR?? EVEN 68 TOTAL CITES IN 7 YEARS IS NOT MUCH. 3 articles in the top 1% of the field. Articles are the one with Anders Moberg in 2003, one in Science on the last millennium in 2001 and the one on error estimates from 1997. At 23:46 10/03/2005, you wrote: THanx Phil. Some comments in caps .... Tom =========== Phil Jones wrote: BEN WAS REALLY PISSED OFF WITH ROGER -- AS WAS TOM KARL I GUESS (NOT YET TALKED TO HIM). ALL OF HIS POINTS CAN BE SHOT DOWN, BUT IT IS A PAIN NONE THE LESS. APPARENLTY JUDY CURRY EXPOSED HER INFERIORITY COMPLEX (ANS HER INFERIORITY). Tom, Off tomorrow and not back in CRU till March 10. I'm not supposed to talk to anyone of the report authors ! There was a lot of odd things said after the presentations in Chicago last week. We're charged with writing a report, which will be published, but you get to rewrite the report and no-one sees the one we looked at ! What is the point of publishing it ! Roger Pielke didn't come out of it too well. Some thought he had some good ideas but didn't express them very well. Most thought he just didn't express them very well. All thought Ben's was the best chapter. Almost all think RSS is right. Also why is Fu et al. dismissed as controversial? A VERY GOOD POINT TO STRESS. THIS IS CHRISTY'S WORDING. Likely most work will be needed on Ch 6 and 1, then 2-4 and least for 5. The Exec Summary was deemed OK, but it isn't a summary of the report, ACTUALLY, IT IS. ALL ITEMS *ARE* IN THE CHAPTERS -- BUT ONLY THOSE DEEMED MOST IMPORTANT (BY ALL EXCEPT ROGER!!) MAYBE I WILL HAVE TO DO ANOTHER (SIDE) VERSION THAT CITES THE SOURCES BY CHAPTER AND LINE NUMBER. so you'll have to do some major reworking. Remember I didn't tell you all this. Lots of details to come - not sure when. Seems a long-winded process. COMMENTS DUE BY MAY 1, THEN WE HAVE 2 WEEKS TO MODIFY/RESPOND. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3562. 2005-03-11 17:03:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 11 17:03:22 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: revision of Chapter 3 review to: "Sinha, Parikhit" , "Dennis Hartmann" , "Ken Kunkel" Ricky, Ken and Dennis, I've modified the text in the Ch 3 document. The main revision is the following to the bit you were having troubles with. There is an issue related to land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes that could be addressed here or maybe elsewhere in other chapters. This is that in the modeling discussion (in Chapters 1, 5 and 6) LULC is considered to be a forcing that is incorporated in some models and not incorporated in others as the forcing and its history are uncertain. We think this is correct and LULC should be considered as a forcing. . Any LULC effects in observational datasets should therefore be left in and not commented upon as a problem in Chapter 6. Chapter 6 cant have it both ways the data are affected by it, so they are somehow wrong, yet it is omitted from many models. I have made a few other small changes to Ch 3 and also to the CH 5 comments, so I'm reattaching them. I have no real comments of substance on Dennis' review of the Executive Summary. It is fair and lucid. I reckon they may lead to more dissent due to having to refer to Fu et al in a much more balanced way, but they have to do this. I know Tom Wigley will be happy to do this, but I suspect some of the other chapter leads will have reservations. I've got the conference call in my diary. Can you check that I can call in without getting charged? Can international callers get in? Finally, how are the other chapter reviews coming along? Have a good weekend. Cheers Phil At 15:26 09/03/2005, Sinha, Parikhit wrote: Hi Ken, Phil, Dennis. Below is some text from the second page of the chapter 3 comments. I don't quite understand the last three sentences. Can you suggest a rewording? Thanks. Ricky "There is an issue related to land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes that could be addressed here or maybe elsewhere in other chapters. This is that in the modeling discussion (in Chapters 5 and 6) LULC is considered to be a forcing that is in some models and not incorporated in others as the forcing and its history are uncertain. If it is a forcing (and we think it is), then we should not be worrying that it influences the surface or tropospheric temperature record. If it is a forcing then it needs to be in the data in the order that it might be found. You can't have it both ways - the data are affected by it, so they are somehow wrong, yet it is omitted from many models." Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 651. 2005-03-15 08:42:28 ______________________________________________________ cc: Valerie.Masson@cea.fr, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 08:42:28 +0100 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Re: glacier box, links ch 4 & ZOD comments to: Jonathan Overpeck , olgasolomina@yandex.ru Hi, Concerning the glacier box: I suggest we aim to work on this issue before the Beijing meeting. I can co-ordinate an e-mail discussion and bring in, when needed those who helped us with the box. The first pass, I suggest would be to look at the comments we have received and Olga´s suggestions, then draft a revised text and response to the comments for discussion. OK? Concerning the last two millennia. I agree that the issue of multidecadal and longer time scale variability needs more emphasis, and that this issue is a bit lost in perhaps too much detail in the ZOD. I am sure, now that we are done with our EU bid, things will progress on the European side. Cheers, Eystein At 16:03 -0700 14-03-05, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Olga - thanks for the more detailed comments. What do you think of the Oerlemans paper. Seemed quite interesting too me, but I find it hard to assess. We have two options for discussing the box. One would be to discuss in China at LA2, but it might make more sense to discuss before then, and perhaps with the others who helped. Could we do this by email - perhaps send the final text to everyone and then get ideas/comments. Then try to come up with a plan that can be finalized in Beijing? What do you think Eystein? Keith and Valerie - I know we're waiting for you to finish your proposal and send all your requested input, but would you please add this email query to your list of things to do as soon as you can. Thanks all, Peck Hello everybody, 1.ZOD comments There are two papers appeared recently that we certainly have to discuss in our chapter both dealing with the LOW FREQUENCY VARIATIONS of the last two millennia: Oerlemans, J. (2005). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records." Science: www.sciencexpress.org / 03 March 2005 / Page 3/ 10.1126/science.1107046. Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N., Karlen, W. (2005). "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere tempertures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution data." Nature 433(10Feb): 613-617. My main concern about the last 2ka and the MWP box is the lack of this (low-frequency) topic. I like the whole text in general, but I feel like there are too many technical details on "spagetti". I agree that the global temperature reconstructions based on annually resolved records are probably the most important achievement and the main stream, but we are loosing sometimes this way some very important evidences and issues. I do not mean just glaciers, but, say, lake level variations, marine sediments, Southern hemisphere data, Antarctica versus N Hemisphere and some other important issues. 2. I would very much appreciate if we discuss futher the glacier box. It is far from being ready and I need a feedback from you. 3. Links ch 4 I sent a rough text to Georg Kaser who is in charge for glaciers in ch 4, but had no answer so far. He has been in the field, so might be just too busy to answer. I will contact you again as soon as we agree about the text on "glaciers in LIA and beyond" to discuss the problems of probable contradictions. Regards, olga -- Dr.Olga Solomina Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Geography RAS Staromonetny-29 Moscow, Russia tel: 007-095-125-90-11, 007-095-939-01-21 fax: 007-095-959-00-33 e-mail: olgasolomina@yandex.ru PAGES Web:www.pages-igbp.org -- ëÂÓÌþ ÛýÌÈ Â̸, ÚÓ· ÁýÂÒÚË ÔÓÚÛ Ìý üÌÂÍÒ http://mail.yandex.ru -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 284. 2005-03-15 11:31:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 11:31:07 +0300 (MSK) from: "olgasolomina" subject: glacier box to: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, jto@u.arizona.edu, Valerie.Masson@cea.fr, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Hello everybody, Thanks a lot for your replies. I think we have to start with the Eystein e-mail strategy and finalise the discussion in Beijing. There are basically two problems: 1.introduction, which can be easily edited or just be very short containing only paleo-aspect and refering for the rest to the glacier chapter and 2.Scandinavia/Alps or broader perspective. I like the last possibility - those curves, even of low resolution, clearly show the main Holocene pattern. I suggest I will still continue to collect curves from people and will try to produce a new version of the picture. If we do not like it we will have to remove the ZFI and Brooks Range and keep only Scand, Alps and Spitsbergen with the discussion changed accordingly. If you agree, I would like to ask Eystein to ask to colleague, who produced the last version to send me the original data for the Scand & Alps curves or I'll send him mine (he seems to be more experienced in graphics)with the request to help again. We will certainly discuss the Oerlemans paper in Ch4 but I thought that if we are talking about the boreholes, we have to mention briefly glaciers in the same context as well. Another paper that I mentioned is even more important and can change a lot in the 2ka chapter because in terms of low-frequency it looks very different from all spagetti.(Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N., Karlen, W. (2005). "Highly variable Northern Hemisphere tempertures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution data." Nature 43(10Feb): 613-617.). Peck, who would you recommend to contact to produce a new curve of Holocene glacier variations in China? You should know the best possibility, I guess I have Bao Yang in mind, but I am not sure that he is the right one for glaciers. May be Lonnie can help again?. Regards, olga >Hi, >Concerning the glacier box: >I suggest we aim to work on this issue before the >Beijing meeting. I can co-ordinate an e-mail >discussion and bring in, when needed those who >helped us with the box. The first pass, I suggest >would be to look at the comments we have >received and Olga´s suggestions, then draft a >revised text and response to the comments for >discussion. >OK? >Concerning the last two millennia. >I agree that the issue of multidecadal and longer >time scale variability needs more emphasis, and >that this issue is a bit lost in perhaps too much >detail in the ZOD. I am sure, now that we are >done with our EU bid, things will progress on the >European side. >Cheers, >Eystein > > >At 16:03 -0700 14-03-05, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>Hi Olga - thanks for the more detailed comments. >>What do you think of the Oerlemans paper. Seemed >>quite interesting too me, but I find it hard to >>assess. >> >>We have two options for discussing the box. One >>would be to discuss in China at LA2, but it >>might make more sense to discuss before then, >>and perhaps with the others who helped. Could we >>do this by email - perhaps send the final text >>to everyone and then get ideas/comments. Then >>try to come up with a plan that can be finalized >>in Beijing? >> >>What do you think Eystein? >> >>Keith and Valerie - I know we're waiting for you >>to finish your proposal and send all your >>requested input, but would you please add this >>email query to your list of things to do as soon >>as you can. >> >>Thanks all, Peck >> >>>Hello everybody, >>> >>>1.ZOD comments >>> >>>There are two papers appeared recently that we >>>certainly have to discuss in our chapter both >>>dealing with the LOW FREQUENCY VARIATIONS of >>>the last two millennia: >>> >>>Oerlemans, J. (2005). "Extracting a Climate >>>Signal from 169 Glacier Records." Science: >>>www.sciencexpress.org / 03 March 2005 / Page 3/ >>>10.1126/science.1107046. >>> >>>Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D., Holmgren, K., >>>Datsenko, N., Karlen, W. (2005). "Highly >>>variable Northern Hemisphere tempertures >>>reconstructed from low-and high-resolution >>>data." Nature 433(10Feb): 613-617. >>> >>>My main concern about the last 2ka and the MWP >>>box is the lack of this (low-frequency) topic. >>>I like the whole text in general, but I feel >>>like there are too many technical details on >>>"spagetti". I agree that the global temperature >>>reconstructions based on annually resolved >>>records are probably the most important >>>achievement and the main stream, but we are >>>loosing sometimes this way some very important >>>evidences and issues. I do not mean just >>>glaciers, but, say, lake level variations, >>>marine sediments, Southern hemisphere data, >>>Antarctica versus N Hemisphere and some other >>>important issues. >>> >>>2. I would very much appreciate if we discuss >>>futher the glacier box. It is far from being >>>ready and I need a feedback from you. >>> >>>3. Links ch 4 >>>I sent a rough text to Georg Kaser who is in >>>charge for glaciers in ch 4, but had no answer >>>so far. He has been in the field, so might be >>>just too busy to answer. I will contact you >>>again as soon as we agree about the text on >>>"glaciers in LIA and beyond" to discuss the >>>problems of probable contradictions. >>> >>>Regards, >>>olga >>> >>> >>>-- >>>Dr.Olga Solomina >>>Corresponding Member of Russian Academy of Sciences >>>Institute of Geography RAS >>>Staromonetny-29 >>>Moscow, Russia >>>tel: 007-095-125-90-11, 007-095-939-01-21 >>>fax: 007-095-959-00-33 >>>e-mail: olgasolomina@yandex.ru >>>PAGES Web:www.pages-igbp.org >>> >>>-- >>>Ì÷“õ”íÀ ù”Ü—íšé ”÷í£, — 2805. 2005-03-15 15:51:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: Martin Juckes , mitrie -- Anders Moberg , Eduardo Zorita , , Jan Esper , Keith Briffa , date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 15:51:01 +0000 (GMT) from: Martin Juckes subject: RE: TOR temperature reconstruction (fwd) -- past the first hirdle to: Myles Allen Michael Mann is convening a session at Beijing on "Explaining the Climates of Historic Times: Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Influences (ICCL and PAGES)", we would have to approach him. Martin On Tue, 15 Mar 2005, Myles Allen wrote: > Regarding Beijing, I find it hard to believe that between the recipients of this e-mail and the steering committee there isn't a convenor willing to bend some abstract submission deadlines if they want to. A more serious question is whether we will have anything to say by then, but we should do: at least bringing the different results together in a common talk and discussing the possible origins of differences would be worthwhile, even if we have not reconciled them by then (assuming, of course, that we ever will: we shouldn't assume a priori that reconciliation is possible). > > It might send a positive message to the committee that we are prepared to talk at Beijing. > > Myles > > Climate Dynamics Group > Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics > Department of Physics, University of Oxford > Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 > Fax: 44-1865-272923 > E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Martin Juckes [mailto:M.N.Juckes@rl.ac.uk] > Sent: 15 March 2005 15:30 > To: mitrie -- Anders Moberg; Eduardo Zorita; hegerl@duke.edu; Jan Esper; Keith Briffa; Martin Juckes; Myles Allen; t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > Subject: Re: TOR temperature reconstruction (fwd) -- past the first hirdle > > > Well, we got a positive response from the steering group > (I haven't seen their detailed comments yet, I'll pass them > on when I get them).Can we present results in Beijing in August > is one question. Abstract submission closed 2 days ago, so > I think we can say no on that. > > cheers, > Martin > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 16:23:38 +0100 > From: Bertjan Heij > To: Martin Juckes > Subject: Re: TOR temperature reconstruction > > Dear Martin, > > The Steering Group response was positive! There are somef (minor) comments. > I'll be back to you coming Monday; next couple of days I am on holiday... > Important question: there is a meeting of PAGES (and CLIVAR as well, if I > am right) in Beijing, in August. The Steering Comm. asks if it possible to > present the results of the project there (and finish the final report after > that meeting). What do you think? > > Regards, > BertJan. > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP CC) > P.O. Box 1 (pb 59) > 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands > tel.: 31 30 2743108 > fax: 31 30 2744436 > > Hét platform voor klimaatkennis in Nederland: www.klimaatportaal.nl > e-mail: bertjan.heij@rivm.nl > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > ----- Forwarded by Bertjan Heij/RIVM/NL on 15-03-05 16:16 ----- > |---------+----------------------------> > | | Bertjan Heij | > | | | > | | 10-03-05 11:54 | > | | | > |---------+----------------------------> > >--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| > | | > | To: Martin Juckes | > | cc: | > | Subject: Re: TOR temperature reconstruction(Document link: Bertjan Heij) | > >--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| > > > > Dear Martin, > > Coming Tuesday your proposal will be discussed in the Steering Group of the > WAB-programme. Then, the comments (if any) have to be incorporated in a > final version. So, that's in your hands (assuming that I mail you the > comments as soon as possible). The final step is: submitting the proposal > to the Ministry for a final decision. And that is the weakest part in the > story, because I don't know how long that will take. But I know the people > there and you can be sure that I'll do my very best to speed up the process > there. When the decision is there, the funding can start immediately. > > OK? > Regards, > BertJan. > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Netherlands Research Programme on Climate Change (NRP CC) > P.O. Box 1 (pb 59) > 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands > tel.: 31 30 2743108 > fax: 31 30 2744436 > > Hét platform voor klimaatkennis in Nederland: www.klimaatportaal.nl > e-mail: bertjan.heij@rivm.nl > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > > > |---------+----------------------------> > | | Martin Juckes | > | | | | .uk> | > | | | > | | 09-03-05 16:33 | > | | | > |---------+----------------------------> > >--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| > | | > | To: Bertjan Heij | > | cc: | > | Subject: TOR temperature reconstruction | > >--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| > > > > > > > Dear Bertjan, > > I am finalising our proposal, which should be with you tomorrow, if an > email version and faxed signed copy are acceptable (I'm sorry I forgot to > check this earlier -- it has been a struggle to coordinate a group > of people broad enough to address the problem within the time > frame, but we are getting there). I can put the original signed copy in > the post to be with you before next Tuesday. > > Please could you clarify two things: > > (1) When will is the decision expected? > > (2) When can funding start? i.e. when is the first possible and latest > acceptable date? > > sincerely, > Martin Juckes > > > > > > ____________________________________________________________________________ > > "Dit bericht en eventuele aangehechte bestanden zijn vertrouwelijk en > uitsluitend bestemd voor de geadresseerde. Ongeautoriseerde verstrekking of > bekendmaking aan en gebruik door anderen zijn niet toegestaan. Als u dit > bericht per vergissing hebt ontvangen wordt u verzocht dit onmiddellijk aan > de afzender te melden en het bericht van uw systemen te verwijderen. > De werkgever van de afzender kan niet garanderen dat de verzonden en/of > ontvangen informatie juist is en aanvaardt geen aansprakelijkheid voor > schade die eruit kan voortvloeien." > > "This message and any files transmitted with it may contain confidential > information and is solely intended for the addressee(s). Any unauthorized > disclosure or actions taken in reliance on it are forbidden. If you have > received this message in error, please delete it and notify the sender. > The employer of the sender does not guarantee that the information sent > and/or received is correct and does not accept any liability for damages > related thereto." > > > 5325. 2005-03-16 13:38:30 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Mar 16 13:38:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: ZOD IPCC to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, We have a paper by Parker (2004) in Nature saying it isn't important. This got used in some Royal Society (UK) release (which has had little impact) - I'll forward this, for interest when you're back. It'll be difficult to find out which stations they've used in China, but I would expect the affect to be small. Their conclusions are based on NCEP being right ! HadCRUT2v doesn't use a place called Shenzhen, nor any place with a similar sounding name in SE China - at least in the anglicized Chinese names we have ! Time Atlas has Shenzhen just across the old border from Hong Kong. We use the Royal Obs. in HK, but this stopped reporting in 1992. Cheers Phil At 16:52 14/03/2005, you wrote: Phil I was able to get it, not read it yet. Seems to highlight that Urban Heat Island changes are important and we ought to say that. Question for global numbers is whether the stations used are affected by this or not: how much might be due to this? Kevin > > Kevin, > The attachment can wait till you get back. I'll email Lisa > and see what she has. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 12:51 14/03/2005, you wrote: >>Hi Phil >>I am in Guayaquil, not sure I can read the attachment. Yes I have the >>comments from these. I have sent all to Lisa Butler who is collating >> them >>all. I don't have the master list. I think there are more?? >> >> >> > >> > Kevin, >> > Thanks for this. As a check I have some comments from >> > >> > C. Y. Lam >> > Gareth Marshall >> > Peter Thorne >> > Simon Josey and Sergey Gulev >> > John Christy >> > Richard Allan >> > Adrian Simmons >> > John Lanzante >> > Hans Alexandersson >> > Matthew Wheeler >> > >> > Do you have any more or are missing any of these? >> > >> > The attached paper makes the same mistake as Kalnay and Cai. It >> > believes >> > NCEP ! Judith Curry on the NRC panel came up with a tirade of >> things >> > that she said >> > were wrong with the surface temp record. She said she would send me >> more >> > references but I've only managed to locate one of those she >> mentioned. >> > >> > Also if you're interested you can get Chet's paper. Saw him last >> week. >> > >> > Cheers >> > Phil >> > >> > You can find the paper: >> > >> > Ropelewski, C.F, D.S Gutzler, R.W. Higgins, and C. R. Mechoso, 2005: >> The >> > North American Monsoon System, Proceedings of the Third International >> > Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-III), Hangzhou, China, 2-6 Nov. 2004. >> > >> > >> > [1]http://iri.columbia.edu/~chet/04NAMS-NOV_pdf_ver.pdf >> > Chet >> > >> > It will be in >> > >> > The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast >> > >> > (Subtitle: Report of the International Committee of the Third >> > International Workshop on Monsoons, November 2004, Hangzhou, China) >> > >> > Editors: C.-P. Chang, Bin Wang and Gabriel N.C. Lau >> > >> > WMO TD-###, 2005 >> > >> > >> >>Why should I want to look at that? >>Kevin >> >> >> > >> > At 20:01 11/03/2005, you wrote: >> >>Hi all >> >> >> >>On behalf of Phil Jones and myself, I firstly want to thank those of >> you >> >>who have sent in comments on the zero order draft of Chapter 3. The >> >>comments are being collated and will be very useful to us in making >> >>revisions. The deadline I suggested is the end of this month, and so >> the >> >>main point of this message is to send a reminder to those of you who >> have >> >>not yet sent in comments. Now is the time to assess the material and >> >> make >> >>suggestions. It can have big impact at this stage. Later it will be >> >>harder as things start to get locked in. >> >> >> >>Thanks >> >>Kevin Trenberth >> >> >> >>-- >> >>**************** >> >>Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: >> trenbert@ucar.edu >> >>Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [2]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ >> >>P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 >> >>Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) >> >> >> >>Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 >> >> >> > >> > Prof. Phil Jones >> > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >> > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >> > University of East Anglia >> > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >> > NR4 7TJ >> > UK >> > >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2790. 2005-03-16 14:10:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 14:10:09 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: workshop dates to: Martin Juckes , Myles Allen Dear Martin and Myles, I was away in Michigan and Hawaii for some time so couldn't contribute to the proposal or surrounding discussion. It's unfortunate as I would have made a few points concerning the make-up of the consortium and allocation of proposed funds (potential conflicts given our submitted/in preparation critiques of both Moberg and Esper; whether there is a need to pay for development of wavelet code given that (a) IDL wavelet code already exists, and (b) the use of wavelets is, in my view, irrelevant to the outcome of the reconstructions; etc.). Plus we would have wanted some part of the funding to help us with our analyses of Esper, Mann and McItrick work including alternatives that reduce bias. As for the workshop, currently 25-29 July is possible for me and I've pencilled it into my diary. But I am currently trying to find dates for the final meeting of our EU project SO&P and if the selected dates overlap then that will have to take precedence. But I hope to attend. Regards Tim At 13:57 14/03/2005, Martin Juckes wrote: >Hello, > >with 3 responses in we are already down to one possible week: 25-29 July. > >Can everyone make this week, or do we need to accept less than 100% >attendance? > >cheers, >Martin Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 5313. 2005-03-16 14:41:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith Briffa" date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 14:41:12 -0000 from: "Myles Allen" subject: RE: workshop dates to: "Tim Osborn" , "Martin Juckes" Hi Tim and Keith, Sorry, but your earlier e-mails seemed to be quite explicit that you wouldn't have any time to commit so were interested in travel funding only. What stage are you at with the Esper, Mann, McItrick work? Is it worth worrying about McItrick? Myles Climate Dynamics Group Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department of Physics, University of Oxford Tel: 44-1865-272085/925 Fax: 44-1865-272923 E-mail: myles.allen@physics.oxford.ac.uk -----Original Message----- From: Tim Osborn [mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 16 March 2005 14:10 To: Martin Juckes; Myles Allen Cc: Keith Briffa Subject: Re: workshop dates Dear Martin and Myles, I was away in Michigan and Hawaii for some time so couldn't contribute to the proposal or surrounding discussion. It's unfortunate as I would have made a few points concerning the make-up of the consortium and allocation of proposed funds (potential conflicts given our submitted/in preparation critiques of both Moberg and Esper; whether there is a need to pay for development of wavelet code given that (a) IDL wavelet code already exists, and (b) the use of wavelets is, in my view, irrelevant to the outcome of the reconstructions; etc.). Plus we would have wanted some part of the funding to help us with our analyses of Esper, Mann and McItrick work including alternatives that reduce bias. As for the workshop, currently 25-29 July is possible for me and I've pencilled it into my diary. But I am currently trying to find dates for the final meeting of our EU project SO&P and if the selected dates overlap then that will have to take precedence. But I hope to attend. Regards Tim At 13:57 14/03/2005, Martin Juckes wrote: >Hello, > >with 3 responses in we are already down to one possible week: 25-29 July. > >Can everyone make this week, or do we need to accept less than 100% >attendance? > >cheers, >Martin Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 2412. 2005-03-16 15:08:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: Myles Allen , Keith Briffa date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 15:08:46 +0000 (GMT) from: Martin Juckes subject: Re: workshop dates to: Tim Osborn Hello Tim, It sounds as though we are going to have some lively discussion between you and Anders. Hopefully the money allocated for the "wavelet" section of the work will assist the evaluation of its scientific significance rather than duplicate software which already exists. There is 5000 Euros allocated for a student between you and Keith -- I'm not sure what Keith has in mind as it was all arranged in haste. We do have an opportunity to make minor changes -- I'm not sure when the deadline for these will be, but I'm expecting it to be early next week (BertJan is on holiday, so we can't get any more information for the moment). I don't think we can change the make up of the consortium, or resolve any scientific disagreements at this stage -- doing the latter is the main objective of the project. cheers, Martin On Wed, 16 Mar 2005, Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear Martin and Myles, > > I was away in Michigan and Hawaii for some time so couldn't contribute to > the proposal or surrounding discussion. It's unfortunate as I would have > made a few points concerning the make-up of the consortium and allocation > of proposed funds (potential conflicts given our submitted/in preparation > critiques of both Moberg and Esper; whether there is a need to pay for > development of wavelet code given that (a) IDL wavelet code already exists, > and (b) the use of wavelets is, in my view, irrelevant to the outcome of > the reconstructions; etc.). Plus we would have wanted some part of the > funding to help us with our analyses of Esper, Mann and McItrick work > including alternatives that reduce bias. > > As for the workshop, currently 25-29 July is possible for me and I've > pencilled it into my diary. But I am currently trying to find dates for > the final meeting of our EU project SO&P and if the selected dates overlap > then that will have to take precedence. But I hope to attend. > > Regards > > Tim > > > At 13:57 14/03/2005, Martin Juckes wrote: > > >Hello, > > > >with 3 responses in we are already down to one possible week: 25-29 July. > > > >Can everyone make this week, or do we need to accept less than 100% > >attendance? > > > >cheers, > >Martin > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > 4106. 2005-03-16 16:57:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Mar 16 16:57:46 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: last millennium - responding to Susan to: Jonathan Overpeck Jonathan I am slowly getting teaching duties behind me and certainly turning my attention back to IPCC. I have spoken wit Phil re the observations chapter and we have discussed the need to show pre 20th instrumental data in our chapter in a manner that is relevant to the comparison with more recent instrumental (ie N.Hemisphere or global mean) records , and the possibility of showing ensembles of regional temperature records , and composites in a way that possibly bares on the discussions with Susan. We are still considering this question , but certainly there needs to be some "frozen grid" curves as flagged in the ZOD. I am not sure of the context of the discussion you are having with Susan , or the logic for what Tom Crowley is trying to do with the ensemble curves of various palaeo-series. I flagged clearly at the outset that I would like to do some regional comparisons of various data/reconstructions . This required more time and input than was achievable for the ZOD. I still think this is desirable though. Similarly , there is far too little in the current version about moisture variability in the last 2000 years and too little on the S.Hemisphere in general. It was always clear that there would be much more discussion on the scaling issue and specific reference to work that will explore the effect of regional, seasonal and methodological differences in aggregation and scaling (including timescale dependent effects). The problem is that the work on much of this is not yet done or published. It should be immediately apparent that our greatest enemy , acting against a thorough exposition of these issues , is the lack of sufficient allotted space. Now , returning to the Crowley Figures , I do not see how not showing an integrated and "appropriately" scaled record helps to clarify the picture on the precedence of recent warming in any clear way. On the contrary , it merely confuses the issue by omitting to tackle the knotty problem of expressing an underlying mean large-scale signal , that emerges from the regional noise only through aggregation of demonstrably appropriate palaeo-records . This aggregation should allow quantification (with appropriate uncertainty) of the extent of warming and provide clearly defined target for comparison with model simulations. If it thought appropriate , yes we can show individual records , but just normalising them over a common base ignores the different sensitivities and regional distribution issues . I am not convinced this selective presentation clarifies anything. I would be happy for this discussion to opened to the rest of the author team. best wishes Keith At 16:28 15/03/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith - I can't remember when you said you'd be able to get back into the IPCC fray, but I hope it is soon. Please let me and Eystein know what you think regarding the email I just cc'd to you. We should respond to Susan asap. Hope things are going well. Thanks, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3876. 2005-03-16 18:49:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 16 Mar 2005 18:49:28 UT from: EarthSurface@agu.org subject: 2005JF000303 Review Instructions for Journal of Geophysical to: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Dr. Briffa: Thank you so much for your email. I have extended your deadline to April 15. Please let me know if you need anything. Thanks for your help, Jeanette Thank you for agreeing to review "Seasonality, Borehole Temperatures and Tree-rings: Estimates of Extratropical Northern Hemispheric Warming" by Robert Harris, David Chapman [Standard Manuscript MS#2005JF000303]. To access the manuscript, review form, and instructions please click on the link below. As we are just launching this new journal, it is especially important to demonstrate that the review process is an efficient one. We therefore ask that you please complete your review by April 15, 2005. If you are unable to complete the review or expect significant delays, please contact me immediately. When preparing your review comments, it may be preferable to draft these comments in a word processor and then copy them into the review form. If you do so, please scroll through these comments before submitting the review to ensure that all characters are rendered correctly and that no incorrect font substitution has occurred. We certainly want to prevent microns from turning into millimeters. We sincerely appreciate your valuable assistance in helping to maintain the quality of the Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface. Sincerely, Robert Anderson Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface 794. 2005-03-17 15:05:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Mar 17 15:05:38 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: BBC E-mail: New row on climate 'hockey stick' to: "Michael E. Mann" Mike, If you do it's worth sending also to this guy, Alex Kirkby. "Alex Kirby" This guys higher up. He got them to check more the items they post on their web site from members of the public. Just finished my call with Paul Olding. Their filming will be done in May for September showing. Mentioned all the paleo series and have just sent him the Rev Geophys paper. Cheers Phil At 14:27 17/03/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, Might be worth sending in a letter of complaint to BBC. They should know that the scientific community is unhappy w/ their flawed reporting on these matters. I've already brought this up w/ Ben Dempsey (who is supposed to call me shortly--sounds like you're talking to a different person at Horizon), mike At 03:26 AM 3/17/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Ray, I tried to convince the reporter here there wasn't a story, but he went with it anyway. At least he put in a quote from me that there are loads of other series that show similar-ish series to MBH and MJ. Had to mention the Moberg et al series to achieve this. The reporter said he'd not seen Moberg et al., and it wasn't flagged up by Nature to them at the appropriate time. Odd ! Then why are you running with this GRL paper as there are 10s issued each week. Well, it turns out, not surprisingly, that MM have issued numerous press releases themselves - using their networks. Waterhouse is at Anglian Polytechnic Uni (APU) - it's in Cambridge and Chelmsford. Keith said what does John Waterhouse know about paleo - my thoughts also ! We've worked with John several years ago on an isotopes in trees project, that didn't produce much. APU is OK when it comes to counselling studies. Ruth works for them teaching at Yarmouth ! His quote is typical of many I get to here. Pity the reporter didn't mention this to me. My response would have been what is the point of doing any more paleo work, if we are constrained by the answer we are allowed to get. If we don't have the MWP and LIA then we are wrong. We have orders of magnitude more data than when these came into vogue in the 1960s, but we still are expected to find them. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil At 17:20 16/03/2005, you wrote: ray saw this story on BBC News Online and thought you should see it. ** Message ** Anglia Polytechnic?!!!! ** New row on climate 'hockey stick' ** New controversy has erupted over one of the most provocative symbols of the global warming debate: the so-called "hockey stick" graph. < [1]http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/4349133.stm > ** BBC Daily E-mail ** Choose the news and sport headlines you want - when you want them, all in one daily e-mail < [2]http://www.bbc.co.uk/dailyemail/ > ** Disclaimer ** The BBC is not responsible for the content of this e-mail, and anything said in this e-mail does not necessarily reflect the BBC's views. If you don't wish to receive such mails in the future, please e-mail webmasters@bbc.co.uk making sure you include the following text: I do not want to receive "E-mail a friend" mailings. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 63. 2005-03-18 11:02:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 18 11:02:33 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: HadCRUT2 problems - diagnosis and possible solution to: "Folland, Chris" Chris, [[[redacted: personal]]] Peter is and will be a very good scientist - he just needs to be able to write clear English in emails, and also to know a little of the history of Had/CRU work. David's email helped there. You'll both be a big loss to the HC when you go, but glad to hear it won't be until end of next year. This date will be fine for IPCC. As for IPCC, I'm sure we can get later submitted work in quite easily. I am towing the WGI line though for the time being, which is submit by May05. This is a ridiculous date, but I suspect Susan has it to allow a slippage to the end of 05. There will still be many relevant papers appearing in 2006, that we won't know about, that we should be referring to. Govt. Reviews should enable us to get these in. Hopefully DEFRA will have some HC people in on these. Did you get involved in these with the TAR - or did you stay totally separate? What is your home #? Is 9am OK on Monday? Cheers Phil At 10:23 18/03/2005, you wrote: Phil Thanks. I have not seen any HadCRUT3 stuff yet. [[[redacted: personal]]] It would be a good idea to have a chat about IPCC. I cannot believe IPCC will allow itself to be 18 months out of date when it appears. If so, long live the TAR! Surely the Government Reviewers like DEFRA wont allow that! Can you ring me Monday at home any reasonable time. Working at home then. Am would be best. Heard no more about Ilarionov. We are ready if he pounces! No feedback from the "Sceptic". But at least I did not get misquoted by the Wall St Journal - I was not even quoted despite my hour of discussion. A good sign probably. So far, touch wood, I have stayed on the "right" side of the sceptics over the last decade. Certainly spoken to enough of them, often at length, and found out a bit about what makes them tick (different in every case). There may come a moment when this is useful. A long standing problem worth mentioning now is my potential successor. A month ago it was formally agreed that I can stay on till 31 Dec 2006, so the problem recedes for now. We might want to chat about that. DEP goes about the same time on present projections. Chris Prof. Chris Folland Met Office Fellow and Head of Climate Variability Research Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) [2]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[3]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 18 March 2005 08:58 To: Folland, Chris Subject: RE: HadCRUT2 problems - diagnosis and possible solution Chris, I'm going to send a brief email to Philip to see where we are with HadCRUT3/v. There needs to be a submission fairly soon wrt AR4. The Beijing meeting is May 10-13 with rewriting the 2-3 months after, before we get a FOD for general release to any who want to comment. As an aside, I'll be interested to see how WGI plays this wrt the FOD. I can see bits of text appearing on web sites if Susan isn't very careful. I'm sure there will be safeguards to stop this. As for HadCRUT2/v, I was only suggesting what seemed most practical given the imminent arrival of HadCRUT3/v. Sticking with the current coverage percentages we are using seems the best thing to do with 2v. It would have been better for Peter to have just compared where the differences were rather than looking at the whole world. Tasmania is either in the right or wrong position, after all. Even if it is wrong it won't make much difference. Also trying to stop key files (those that will be used in HadCRUT3/v) being altered just seemed common sense to me. I've only seen so far one brief outline of the proposed HadCRUT3/v paper. It would be good to see more of the whole thing rather than bits and bobs and potential diagrams that Simon keeps sending around. Although the contract we've done for you has ended, the person here is still doing some work. We've not sent everything back yet. We've still not sent the new SD file, which is necessary to weed out some typos that creep in from time to time. We have removed some duplicate stations that came in last time, and checked/altered/deleted some of the 1961-90 normals files. Philip should have these. Let me know of any relevant decisions made at the meeting. The next time I'll be down in Exeter will be for the HC Review meeting (May 17-19), the week after Beijing. Any further news on Iliaronov? Also was the person happy with you response to the question to John Houghton about paleo in the TAR? This seemed fine with me. Also, I'd be happy to ignore Iliaranov's piece. Another aside, NCDC have decided in their new gridding (which might not be in time for AR4) to forget their first difference method. They say it is more trouble than it is worth. They are also going to try to use SYNOP-calculated CLIMATs, which seems more trouble than it's worth. Cheers Phil At 22:21 17/03/2005, you wrote: >Phil > >Except for the one hopefully calming email I sent, I have kept out of >this so far. I have now asked for a briefing next week (likely >Tuesday). If anything silly looks like happening please do not hesitate >to contact me! > >Chris > >Prof. Chris Folland > >Met Office Fellow and Head of Climate Variability Research > >Global climate data sets are available from [4]http://www.hadobs.org > >Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United >Kingdom >Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk >Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 >Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 > (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) >[5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > >Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East >Anglia, Norwich > > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Phil Jones [[6]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] >Sent: 17 March 2005 16:59 >To: Thorne, Peter >Cc: Thorne, Peter; i.harris@uea.ac.uk; Chris Folland; Tett, Simon; >Parker, David; John Kennedy; Brohan, Philip; Jennifer Hardwick; Jen >Teignmouth >Subject: Re: HadCRUT2 problems - diagnosis and possible solution > > > > Dear All, > Maybe I've misinterpreted Peter's email, but UEA doesn't want >the whole of > HadCRUT2v/HandCRUT2 back. If the coverage percentage goes back to >what it > was then none of HadCRUT2/v will change except for Jan 2005. Unless >I've misunderstood, > we've been using the same coverage since 2v started, so there is no >need to > send the whole thing back. Also, if the old version goes back, then >there >shouldn't be > any error messages !!! Why will there be any if we are doing what we >were. THERE IS NO > NEED TO CHANGE ANYTHING IF YOU GO BACK TO THE ORIGINAL COVERAGE > FILE. There won't be any grid boxes that are different. I don't want >any >changes. I keep > saying this and it keeps falling on deaf ears. > > As an aside, the coverage percentage file isn't mine. When I >started doing HadCRUT2v, > I got this from David Parker, so it's yours - not mine ! > > Finally, although there are differences they only have an impact > if > >they are between > 25 and 75% land/ocean coverage. > > The USGS version isn't what you want anyway. Part of the >differences come about from > setting ocean squares to land where there is permanent sea ice. This >was >a simpler > way of allowing some extrapolation over sea ice from land stations >without bringing in > any SST and also stopping SST getting into squares where it shouldn't. > > Merging on errors isn't right either. It still makes no sense. >Merging by area, maybe > incorporating errors might be possible. Merging should also consider >the >number of > samples not just the error. If a box has 75% land with two stations >but >large error, but the > 25% ocean has small error, the merged value should also reflect the >greater % land. I > still need to be convinced of this, and the only way I'll be convinced >is >to see the > old and new methods (and little difference between them). > > Cheers > Phil > > > Cheers > Phil > > >At 15:38 17/03/2005, Thorne, Peter wrote: > >All, > > > >attached is an excel spreadsheet (sorry linux people!) showing the > >percentage coverage from IGBP > >([7]http://lpdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/globdoc2_0.asp) resolved to 5 by 5 and > >the > > >version that Phil has sent of the coverage percentage. Top is Phil's > >data which is to nearest whole percent (x100), next is IGBP as a > >fractional coverage and then last is the difference field as a > >fractional measure (Phil minus IGBP). There are some fairly large > >differences throughout. In the poles these are because of different > >classification procedures I should think. Differences beyong the 3rd > >d.p are probably rounding (obviously). The others look kinda scary so > >I'm advocating adopting an Ostrich position ... > > > >As Simon intimated earlier in this thread in HadCRUT3 the merge is > >going to be based upon estimated error rather than fractional > >coverage. > > > >Path of least resistance is install Phil's dataset back in which > >we've been using for a long time and run and just ignore any error > >messages, send UEA everything (complete rather than solely post-1990 > >merged hadcrut2 and hadcrut2v files) this month and then keep running > >it with a mask we know to be sub-optimal because the whole thing is > >going to be > > >replaced on a timescale of months. We can let you know which > >gridboxes have changed in the merged product for the website Phil. > > > >I haven't got time to chase this further right now so if you do want > >it > > >chased you'll have to scrape together the time from somewhere else > >I'm afraid. > > > > > >All those not in favour shout now or forever hold your peace. > > > >Peter > > > >-- > >Peter Thorne Climate Research Scientist > >Hadley Centre for climate prediction and research > >Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB > >Tel:+44 1392 886552 Fax:+44 1392 885681 [8]http://www.hadobs.org > >Prof. Phil Jones >Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >University of East Anglia >Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >NR4 7TJ >UK >----------------------------------------------------------------------- >- >---- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3670. 2005-03-18 17:12:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 18 Mar 2005 17:12:19 -0700 from: Jerry Meehl subject: update on IPCC model analyses to: ipcc_subprojects@jetta.llnl.gov, cmsaw@joss.ucar.edu, mlatif@ifm.uni-kiel.de, Ron Stouffer , covey1@llnl.gov, meehl@ucar.edu, john.f.mitchell@metoffice.com, gates5@llnl.gov, avillwock@ifm.uni-kiel.de, B.McAvaney@bom.gov.au, Satyan_V@gateway.wmo.ch, bader2@llnl.gov, Jim Hurrell , Dave Gutzler , Lisa Goddard , David Legler Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by smtp-1.llnl.gov id j2J0DQI9014338 March 18, 2005 (we apologize if some of you receive this message more than once since we are sending it to several email alias lists; we include the message text below, as well as in an msword attachment) Dear IPCC analysts, Thank you to all who attended the very successful workshop in Honolulu held March 1-4, and to all those who have been analyzing the IPCC AR4 model output who were not able to attend. It was clear from the workshop that the models are being analyzed over a wide range of topics and that some interesting results are already emerging. The multi-model analyses are going to be major contributors to the success of the AR4. The purpose of this email is to let you know how to feed the results of your analyses into the AR4 drafting process For those who were not able to come to the workshop, I would like to confirm here the timescales on which material is required. To fit with the IPCC review process, papers will need to be submitted to peer-reviewed journals and available to IPCC lead authors by 1 MAY 2005, and accepted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal by approximately 1 DEC 2005. These deadlines are set to allow lead authors time to consider all available literature in time for the first and second AR4 drafts. Electronic copies of papers need to be sent to the appropriate lead author contacts, with an electronic copy lodged with the WG1 Technical Support Unit (TSU) – see below. For the May deadline, the authors need some form of draft paper to assess. In almost all cases this will be in the form of a paper submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. An exception to the need for a peer-reviewed paper can be made for calculations of well-established diagnostics (e.g. where the diagnostic and the lines of inference from the results are described in a number of existing peer-reviewed papers). This would be at the discretion of the lead authors and would be subject to scrutiny by the WG1 Review Editors and Bureau. If you are planning work of this type I would advise establishing early direct contact with an appropriate lead author. List of contacts for AR4 modelling chapters Please email a pdf copy of your paper to the IPCC WG1 TSU (ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov) and to the relevant contact points below. Note that your study may be relevant to more than one chapter (e.g. a study that considers both the control simulations of ENSO and future changes in ENSO would be relevant to both Chapters 8 and 10). Roughly speaking, Ch. 8 deals with simulations of aspects of the climatology or processes in present-day climate, Ch. 9 addresses simulation of trends or responses to specific forcings in 20th century climate in addition to detection/attribution studies, Ch. 10 assesses any aspect of climate change projections from global models, and Ch. 11 deals with aspects of regional climate change projections from regional models or information downscaled from global models. These are not strict boundaries, but are used for general guidance to give you a rough idea of where to send copies of your papers. As long as you send copies to the chapter contacts you think are relevant for your paper, it is then the responsibility of the respective lead authors to sort out exactly where your results will be assessed. Chapter outlines can be found at: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/index.html Chapter 8: Climate Models and their Evaluation Please send copies to the appropriate section contacts: 8.1 Introduction and Philosophy: Richard Wood richard.wood@metoffice.gov.uk 8.2 Advances in Modelling (model formulation, resolution etc): Akimasa Sumi sumi@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp 8.3 Evaluation of contemporary climate as simulated by coupled global models: Karl Taylor taylor13@llnl.gov 8.4 Evaluation of large-scale climate variability: John Fyfe John.Fyfe@ec.gc.ca 8.5 Model simulations of extremes: Jagadish Shukla shukla@cola.iges.org 8.6 Climate Sensitivity and hydrological sensitivity: Sandrine Bony Sandrine.Bony@lmd.jussieu.fr 8.7 Mechanisms producing thresholds and abrupt climate change: Ron Stouffer Ronald.Stouffer@noaa.gov 8.8 Representing the global system with simpler models: Thierry Fichefet fichefet@astr.ucl.ac.be Chapter 9 : Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Please send all papers to CLA Gabi Hegerl hegerl@duke.edu Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections Please send all papers to CLA Thomas Stocker stocker@climate.unibe.ch Chapter 11: Regional Climate Projections Please send all papers to CLA Jens Christensen jhc@dmi.dk The draft papers will be made available through the WG1 web pages to all WG1 lead authors. Additionally, the TSU will set up a tracking sheet, and it will be your responsibility to update this form as your paper progresses through the review process. Further details regarding this procedure will be forthcoming. Thank you again for your contribution, and good luck with your writing! Jerry Meehl For the Ch. 8, 9, 10 and 11 Lead Authors, and for the WGCM Climate Simulation Panel Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\sending_in_papers1.doc" 2848. 2005-03-21 08:39:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: zhongwei yan , mann@virginia.edu date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 08:39:46 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: Christoph Kull , Keith Briffa Dear Cristoph, Keith: Thanks for the update. I'm with Keith on this--I think that a smaller, more focused, coordinated invited workshop where each of the participants might actually be able to produce some analyses for discussion/comparison beforehand, would be most effective. Several of the more obvious participants for this are already mentioned below. Gabi Hegerl might be added to this list, as well as Ray Bradley and Ed Cook... Mike At 05:43 AM 3/21/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear Keith, Thanks for the reply! Yes, I completely agree - and we will be able to go this way. A solution might be, that after the "invited workshop" we will have an open day.... Anyway, lets await the other responses. I will get back to you - also with news about related swiss funding... All the best, Christoph On 21.03.2005 10:55, "Keith Briffa" wrote: > Good news Christoph > I can see that this might need to be an open event , but the value will be > more if , as we suggested, some work can be done before (as decided by a > small group). We certainly do not want a very big meeting - this will just > dilute the interaction and so I still suggest an invited workshop . Can we > wait until hearing what Mike and the others think before issuing too many > invitations > > best wishes > Keith > > At 08:00 21/03/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: >> Dear Zhongweyi, dear Keith, dear Mike >> Hope everything is going well! >> As I already wrote some days ago, PAGES will get funded from the US-side at >> least for the period till August 2006. Its pretty sure that there will be >> further support afterwards, but we will have to apply for funding again and >> in a different way. >> Therefore, the question about the planned P/C workshop on past millennia >> variability arise. >> The plan is to held this workshop in 2006 in Switzerland. PAGES will >> probably find additional money from swiss resources to cover part of the >> expenses. We certainly would need funding from PAGES and CLIVAR. I guess >> this is secured - following the discussions in Victoria. >> Shall I contact the key players (Briffa, , Mann, Jones, Moberg, Esper, >> Crowley, Luterbacher) in order to pre-set a possible calendar date. Do you >> suggest someone else to contact in advance? >> I suggest to start planning with late summer / autumn 2006. Spring 2006 is >> probably too early. >> PAGES policy requires to have this workshop finally as an "open event". We >> may set the number of participants but should allow also outsiders to >> participate in order to discuss about methodology and probable future >> approaches. >> Anyway, let me know what you think, all the best and greetings from Bern! >> Christoph >> >> -- >> Christoph Kull >> Science Officer >> PAGES IPO >> Sulgeneckstrasse 38 >> CH-3007 Bern >> Switzerland >> >> phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 >> fax: +4131 312 31 68 > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 1563. 2005-03-21 09:32:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 09:32:43 -0700 from: Tom Wigley subject: GRL to: Sarah Raper , Phil Jones , Keith Briffa Apparently our GSIC paper is out ..... Wigley, T.M.L. and Raper, S.C.B., 2005: Extended scenarios for glacier melt due to anthropogenic forcing. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L05704, doi:10.1029/2004GL021238. Will you be around on April 27 and 28 (Wed., Thur.)? I have to attend a meeting on April 24, 25 in London. It might be useful for me to come up to UEA for these days re AR4 stuff. I would catch the train on Wed morning and leave on Fri morning. Need to know as soon as possible. There are also things I would like to talk to Keith and Phil about re some work we are doing on the 'hockey stick'. Tom. 860. 2005-03-21 11:21:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 21 Mar 2005 11:21:45 +0000 from: Sarah Raper subject: MAGICC working to: Tim Osborn --Apple-Mail-2--47081021 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed Dear Tim, left Norwich 8;30am yesterday arrived Bremerhaven midnight (bus to Stansted.....), glad its the last trip. Friday night remembered to compile MAGICC with fort77 - sometimes its best to stop for a while. Here is the run, send graph and I'll do another. Good luck tomorrow. 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-.299 1972 -.272 .758 .056 -.188 -.311 -.251 -.292 1973 -.277 .635 -.011 -.215 -.305 -.262 -.292 1974 -.345 .368 -.362 -.392 -.323 -.358 -.331 1975 -.284 .407 .005 -.215 -.316 -.269 -.300 1976 -.218 .777 .270 -.070 -.286 -.181 -.255 1977 -.171 .966 .391 .009 -.254 -.124 -.218 1978 -.122 1.071 .525 .095 -.222 -.064 -.180 1979 -.075 1.170 .640 .172 -.188 -.008 -.142 1980 -.055 1.169 .618 .180 -.163 .010 -.120 1981 -.361 .138 -.964 -.618 -.243 -.423 -.299 1982 -.523 -.968 -1.407 -.901 -.348 -.622 -.423 1983 -.335 -.313 -.166 -.316 -.343 -.335 -.334 1984 -.204 .757 .367 -.025 -.286 -.161 -.247 1985 -.171 .986 .346 -.007 -.247 -.129 -.213 1986 -.120 1.004 .491 .084 -.213 -.066 -.173 1987 -.044 1.192 .743 .233 -.171 .030 -.118 1988 .016 1.359 .881 .328 -.127 .102 -.069 1989 .051 1.379 .895 .360 -.092 .137 -.036 YEAR TEMUSER oceanflux q TEMLAND TEMOCEAN TNH TSH --Apple-Mail-2--47081021-- 3728. 2005-03-23 21:52:52 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 23 Mar 2005 21:52:52 +0100 from: Kurt Nicolussi subject: Re: Alpine Pinus cembra to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, > > thanks for this - first fine if Reinhard wishes to produce a series - > but note that his existing data for temperature are great and the > spatial coherence so strong that we will not do better than go with his > already produced monthly data. Very long daily data will be useful though. The high elevation temperature grid data are quite similar, and I agree that it won't be necessary to establish a new series. What I know daily data are relatively rare due to destroyed archives. > As for the data , we would prefer that you send what is already > available as soon as possible , and new data additionally later. That > will then allow some quick exploration before Bologna. We are happy to > ask you to be a guinea pig (do you know this expression ) tying to help > us (Tom that is) write a generally useable version of the software. I will try my best. > At present it is in the form of dissociated routines , but Tom must put > them together in a windows form for general use. In the meantime , he > will try to put some together in a form for you to use immediately and > you can work in parallel with it along with us. Tom will contact you > directly about this .We would try to provide you with this in Bologna. > As for format , please send all data in the format you use , and Tom > will build this in as an option. If this is OK , please send the data > and associated info when you can. Beside your approaches I will prepare RCS-chronologies based on this splitting into two sub-groups (maybe more). We can compare the results at least in Bologna. You find attached the subfossil data (pc_su1a.fh), the historical material (pc_hi1a.fh) and the data from living trees (pc_re1a.fh). Additionally I've attached the RCS-curves for the living tree's sub-group and the historical material. The pith offset is taken into account for these series. The hist and living material is on the actual state, I will add some subfossil data later. Best regards Kurt > > Best wishes > Keith > > At 13:42 23/03/2005, you wrote: > >> Dear Keith, >> >> I apologize for my delayed reply, but I', still interested in a joint >> analysis of the stone pine data. In the meanwhile I talked with >> Reinhard and he agreed to produce a "central eastern Alps" temp data >> set for our analyses. >> >> As I told you at the telephone we're just adding new data to the stone >> pine data base - and that's not finished up to know. But if it's >> necessary I could send you the actual state of the data set and send >> the new data later. Which format would you prefer? >> >> Yes, I would like to "do some exploratory Multiple RCS attempts" >> because I'm not interested to be the "data source" only. You mentioned >> "signal removal before defining the RCS curves" and the >> "best-fit-approach" - to do have software for this which you could >> send me? >> >> Best regards >> Kurt >> >> >> >>> Kurt >>> sorry to be slow in getting back to you. I am still heavily in >>> teaching for another week or so. I am really pleased that we might >>> try some joint analyses now. Eventually , I would like to try and >>> combine all data (with Michael and perhaps Jan) but for now I think >>> we should explore yours and if it works out we agreed that you would >>> front a revised paper , for 2K year reconstruction based on this. >>> Would you be happy for us to do some exploratory Multiple RCS >>> attempts , and use the signal removal (before defining the RCS >>> curves) and possibly the best-fit mean approach Tom has pioneered. >>> You could do some parallel work along the lines you suggest. I am >>> very happy for Reinhard to work with us and the glacier comparison >>> work is a possibility - but you will have to give us more details of >>> which glacier series you envisage working with - will this be a >>> simple comparison plot , or do you intend using a simple model to >>> reconstruct volume (or tongue movement) , driven by the reconstructed >>> temperatures (and assumed or precipitation from the Swiss indices?) . >>> We are comitted to try something like this eventually as part of the >>> consolidation phase of work. >>> Either way , if you would send the data files (and detailed >>> locational evidence) Tom could start playing with some chronology >>> development ,experimenting with the standardisation and we can try to >>> produce something for discussion before Bologna? What do you say? > > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ HEADER: DateEnd=655 Length=655 KeyCode=z_r_rc5c DATA:Chrono 904 61 0 0 1007 80 39 22 1117 93 52 27 1276 113 68 25 1363 134 61 51 1381 148 59 75 1395 164 77 70 1356 183 81 82 1325 190 80 102 1364 200 105 82 1342 204 105 93 1347 209 101 102 1370 215 112 95 1386 221 111 104 1424 234 112 108 1407 240 116 118 1410 244 119 120 1428 247 125 117 1415 250 110 136 1447 258 134 115 1478 262 136 121 1467 264 129 133 1533 269 140 121 1501 269 130 139 1524 272 141 127 1535 275 141 130 1531 275 136 139 1535 277 144 131 1551 279 143 134 1604 282 157 120 1543 284 131 150 1578 283 156 126 1577 283 140 142 1567 283 137 145 1569 283 140 143 1573 282 126 155 1628 282 162 118 1606 281 136 145 1590 281 134 147 1586 285 145 136 1577 285 140 143 1593 285 152 132 1573 285 150 133 1572 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880 1080 1175 1255 1175 1170 1065 1090 1115 1125 890 1000 890 675 590 685 765 1005 1060 720 805 660 695 595 655 580 750 910 700 915 850 780 725 860 720 620 650 615 540 440 505 525 600 530 635 800 885 930 820 870 880 680 695 820 700 655 635 620 570 675 660 595 525 425 515 435 515 575 540 505 480 430 430 385 430 520 485 435 360 280 250 260 190 195 240 245 270 240 245 215 265 295 220 305 295 295 305 480 345 410 420 310 310 260 365 365 360 350 360 365 340 340 430 345 330 370 380 515 695 640 520 610 530 455 365 410 380 340 335 405 430 425 430 440 445 410 380 360 310 375 410 405 435 370 405 450 370 340 315 285 255 275 275 360 275 325 335 385 315 300 255 250 210 235 255 265 265 225 230 235 235 270 260 270 285 160 155 210 170 150 160 105 150 115 140 105 125 135 195 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1758 Length=134 KeyCode=kri2-1_m DATA:Tree 1421 1782 2284 1477 2043 1603 1706 1726 2632 2771 2635 2427 1921 2172 1571 2272 1845 2198 1812 1704 1565 1811 1449 1471 1534 1491 1044 888 891 1061 1255 1312 1401 1134 1193 1381 1232 1529 1377 1608 1553 1856 1373 1075 947 863 896 831 829 1147 780 1042 799 763 775 811 1134 929 1466 1408 1119 1398 1342 1242 855 946 991 800 704 906 838 818 941 743 641 761 555 544 515 601 530 598 713 684 607 666 675 730 605 654 656 466 294 284 329 377 382 457 433 611 535 760 630 654 881 785 797 632 595 529 625 818 735 727 734 666 562 799 536 511 455 509 357 406 482 433 530 654 673 566 685 498 592 448 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1691 Length=86 KeyCode=kri2-2_m DATA:Tree 2194 2366 2501 2828 2874 2963 2251 1760 1730 2049 1153 1176 1356 1462 1149 652 367 242 212 428 355 487 297 371 476 750 866 1217 1048 1133 1140 721 816 818 973 1019 913 719 729 812 1000 893 901 978 955 788 761 667 670 772 1009 1023 939 810 723 661 753 538 602 562 753 706 685 703 651 690 750 910 1234 1085 1020 873 825 769 655 689 440 641 528 464 569 649 576 420 432 407 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1978 Length=208 KeyCode=mif1_m DATA:Tree 340 240 335 275 360 625 515 320 355 500 510 700 830 930 920 580 545 345 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309 329 197 304 388 326 324 350 288 244 402 428 420 392 414 390 373 406 462 485 406 511 379 289 360 626 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1568 Length=120 KeyCode=ogar1_m DATA:Tree 1294 1401 1283 1208 1189 1228 1180 1029 1341 1435 1319 1308 1110 1415 1341 1029 952 969 1050 954 754 900 889 896 816 880 1082 948 933 1006 1012 846 820 696 654 612 651 875 776 789 835 910 795 646 381 536 440 530 436 509 527 567 680 733 682 600 649 663 683 750 720 711 633 688 637 693 672 609 414 595 438 384 369 358 355 535 516 707 603 518 499 405 383 347 338 365 344 259 297 334 376 378 393 398 394 367 334 394 405 418 460 541 657 768 819 831 766 827 645 552 710 645 660 553 476 526 478 440 422 294 HEADER: DateEnd=1587 Length=157 KeyCode=ogar2_m DATA:Tree 1155 903 1065 1084 1184 1361 1404 986 1422 1376 1186 1011 1130 1112 1213 1041 1051 1170 1074 1232 874 855 773 823 860 752 615 536 575 619 519 663 772 610 515 412 469 455 360 501 493 506 576 647 645 689 734 705 658 585 525 549 535 552 542 604 698 659 657 649 565 533 460 538 486 490 402 544 544 540 558 539 544 538 504 558 597 675 673 700 691 839 771 692 590 629 477 496 501 444 419 430 404 419 442 494 527 509 413 446 393 321 307 356 375 333 361 360 327 328 351 313 300 255 215 288 294 259 227 242 260 278 297 294 326 366 418 380 426 519 457 418 382 360 329 328 445 404 358 357 252 289 179 263 205 198 215 230 166 229 193 208 234 205 208 206 201 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1612 Length=147 KeyCode=pfa2_m1 DATA:Tree 942 1305 1810 1247 1162 1672 1660 887 970 1422 1957 1505 1585 1937 2395 2147 2255 2460 2885 1685 2607 3270 2810 2507 3067 2332 1800 1082 1945 1882 2010 1482 2357 3267 3462 2825 3210 2782 2730 2660 2220 2717 2492 2730 3275 2622 3160 2902 2525 1492 1520 1262 1532 2152 2070 1615 1812 1347 1545 1682 2265 1582 1612 1060 1035 1132 1077 887 1062 917 715 842 717 940 1460 1082 1215 1262 1135 1032 1062 1155 1122 920 660 677 752 907 875 927 1167 952 960 950 770 880 737 715 647 532 517 572 642 607 757 800 770 700 622 720 537 427 420 297 357 445 392 397 410 457 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1318 1290 1871 1486 1175 1210 1197 843 540 855 507 636 574 457 537 620 488 704 655 627 683 659 675 658 694 597 501 558 442 526 433 394 433 490 657 672 719 734 632 830 838 804 727 700 668 565 540 487 480 335 282 270 315 358 327 364 358 328 385 339 362 484 470 464 547 598 668 542 660 612 658 708 702 524 651 718 917 486 877 760 767 717 655 598 842 638 720 670 563 675 633 535 475 247 387 472 549 481 495 509 508 412 588 570 641 612 725 736 668 800 590 420 505 438 458 416 494 433 514 643 492 493 459 488 595 581 627 585 655 433 513 420 368 472 499 398 373 339 403 393 372 465 613 455 480 580 498 363 533 395 373 339 336 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1845 Length=132 KeyCode=pla6_m DATA:Tree 2500 1712 2210 1587 1320 1385 1479 1698 1532 1013 1082 1013 777 1047 1002 1162 963 1170 1058 854 1162 811 910 1041 996 635 564 524 558 681 481 632 580 557 470 439 608 696 998 816 727 739 984 908 887 721 595 670 547 482 454 420 485 604 532 585 594 692 583 597 653 632 713 650 806 510 591 485 590 619 676 799 784 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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1845 Length=123 KeyCode=pla8_m DATA:Tree 1407 2472 2302 2120 2491 2492 2149 1988 2292 2071 1178 2193 2385 1613 1460 1679 1192 1051 1295 1245 942 907 1125 980 967 941 892 835 754 896 743 1014 1088 1793 1823 2484 2547 1950 1943 1643 1693 1707 1149 1344 1727 1398 1203 992 1218 1072 958 1288 1392 1260 1185 1273 935 1116 1417 1486 1237 1170 877 717 623 683 429 464 417 507 550 742 748 735 740 644 682 812 620 427 415 493 527 537 492 405 287 374 363 376 392 482 360 323 253 219 245 240 262 267 378 304 429 510 433 551 521 387 382 393 313 313 352 334 356 390 386 377 363 387 447 359 545 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1914 Length=115 KeyCode=pma1_mk DATA:Tree 1317 959 1172 1048 1212 1227 600 1349 1132 1111 848 1178 1333 894 1097 931 1236 1043 765 699 824 974 1108 1233 1160 1212 1190 1220 971 937 880 832 797 793 900 966 533 516 483 556 585 465 723 541 602 569 667 728 719 597 483 436 407 470 380 374 547 569 560 598 671 769 648 718 581 551 676 798 594 673 692 701 599 750 883 983 775 778 680 806 911 1162 977 1051 854 844 618 763 600 922 695 745 800 863 762 884 858 946 1002 773 840 954 889 962 1070 1048 911 830 900 704 576 882 813 447 758 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1926 Length=134 KeyCode=pma2_m DATA:Tree 375 474 621 476 525 665 746 629 485 819 551 404 495 316 286 271 253 274 270 330 284 313 240 242 191 78 157 189 255 301 426 400 478 379 424 552 694 574 556 476 372 657 545 451 518 488 526 576 533 935 804 839 824 1208 1381 1888 2143 1926 1332 1007 924 875 1390 1873 1617 1170 1123 1292 2087 1971 1817 1275 1017 1070 1888 1629 2266 1587 1647 1363 1379 1476 1330 1091 924 844 825 888 978 974 909 752 778 562 605 607 619 541 549 733 662 768 750 651 728 613 530 708 715 707 637 794 675 583 579 591 456 406 531 564 410 473 436 378 463 347 361 312 394 478 582 689 538 544 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1927 Length=84 KeyCode=pma3_m DATA:Tree 774 853 1240 2016 2417 2402 2023 1962 1774 1396 1340 1693 1894 1698 1406 1603 1670 2001 1836 1624 1188 1363 1330 1627 1624 1880 1503 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160 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1671 Length=106 KeyCode=psb1_m DATA:Tree 544 629 685 502 354 433 421 431 450 364 307 249 268 221 238 214 234 281 380 312 495 308 187 219 212 180 214 223 208 227 136 201 172 275 266 198 162 187 263 184 189 165 187 110 210 205 141 315 274 333 438 439 509 641 519 573 466 411 368 466 371 495 268 238 164 222 190 209 273 332 416 415 426 312 411 445 348 354 230 247 226 301 326 257 264 231 246 213 188 284 273 311 314 361 370 466 251 275 302 259 393 378 183 180 128 170 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1890 Length=258 KeyCode=pwt1_m DATA:Tree 249 229 249 287 197 381 123 243 239 234 193 196 226 426 432 410 346 338 420 414 344 498 503 574 539 403 362 426 431 481 397 422 322 350 377 367 266 283 312 271 327 349 260 289 261 249 297 260 356 333 311 325 293 313 323 368 349 390 345 315 284 263 268 267 281 241 160 158 185 259 324 305 312 299 258 326 345 397 390 389 356 289 252 230 140 84 136 221 210 256 343 380 412 501 563 581 693 744 605 556 593 645 656 650 529 676 717 719 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261 200 198 230 241 191 243 253 216 235 275 285 303 301 305 258 275 286 346 263 270 266 218 266 226 198 181 181 180 158 160 140 135 130 93 90 100 82 100 105 105 120 92 105 85 110 77 72 85 115 127 137 87 90 75 77 90 110 90 77 90 125 105 115 97 112 125 102 102 117 87 85 110 102 90 110 120 120 102 117 95 70 75 105 125 135 130 97 127 127 132 102 72 130 117 140 137 142 152 125 137 160 147 95 105 105 112 90 82 52 65 70 65 65 47 55 60 70 67 75 82 90 55 82 72 87 72 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1780 Length=276 KeyCode=pwt4_m DATA:Tree 1252 1049 868 846 529 917 566 653 896 975 715 698 1054 1079 834 1173 1333 1027 494 1066 1230 1343 1052 941 1249 1198 1005 987 1025 1281 1125 1287 982 863 708 851 768 661 759 836 695 817 910 919 973 923 1135 1243 1233 1108 1106 1180 1023 1181 1461 1393 1508 1328 929 998 1131 923 894 1084 1001 904 653 683 743 813 834 627 463 591 448 340 459 544 825 782 547 574 657 439 643 597 441 465 538 510 501 554 565 594 649 589 545 558 711 704 571 512 507 572 493 541 558 607 569 610 706 505 501 486 526 541 489 397 425 375 328 300 337 209 292 237 229 212 222 219 250 215 219 235 230 264 250 205 229 195 248 230 215 195 223 188 172 166 168 172 220 225 202 232 230 219 223 220 191 241 259 257 196 209 213 148 160 213 236 214 138 182 139 125 190 145 166 229 255 262 227 281 342 237 171 199 201 207 190 230 215 234 206 183 143 202 168 174 166 184 170 248 202 142 162 223 183 206 148 175 170 135 89 159 126 137 111 148 94 126 117 114 146 156 83 105 121 116 173 198 183 191 152 133 171 112 105 116 85 82 109 77 88 78 67 77 80 80 65 96 105 80 116 85 145 137 144 123 177 109 70 102 123 113 88 43 61 37 58 65 105 85 104 85 95 89 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1650 Length=231 KeyCode=pwt5_m DATA:Tree 1650 1535 1883 1910 1993 2163 2030 2171 1883 1743 1333 1666 1455 1586 1980 1528 1590 1515 1201 1033 1451 1216 1296 1215 1193 1393 1705 1445 1515 1366 1320 938 940 1068 913 875 695 548 388 296 391 421 428 463 435 368 378 300 246 213 265 186 220 263 316 293 310 256 281 283 236 215 183 223 283 248 293 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KeyCode=BKA57_m DATA:Tree 1440 1425 1260 1205 1175 1065 655 1065 1305 1210 915 980 665 815 145 85 315 295 195 420 540 580 750 805 970 900 1220 1390 1355 1605 1847 2035 1967 1312 2500 1517 1577 1760 1527 1910 1500 1652 1857 1432 1292 1292 1635 1732 1487 1420 1380 1050 1040 1347 1197 1090 1162 1315 1467 1625 1912 1767 1672 1370 1377 1702 1852 1655 1590 1362 1230 1467 1520 1530 1412 1215 972 1075 1202 1175 1425 1267 1227 1345 1360 1122 1370 1082 1005 1172 1277 1477 1557 1272 1322 1330 1020 1085 982 1002 1385 1782 1390 1407 1680 1445 1600 1072 1265 1215 675 952 662 632 742 640 655 430 632 597 902 1000 850 807 985 962 1000 955 807 737 577 712 792 815 905 842 875 877 637 835 760 760 647 790 1030 742 882 987 1220 1427 1220 990 1075 870 837 902 682 662 497 602 725 672 487 592 735 737 997 1057 1182 880 820 897 617 890 745 830 820 895 765 1125 1135 1100 967 802 735 1122 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=126 KeyCode=BKA58_m DATA:Tree 1605 1500 1740 1790 1885 1515 1910 1925 1835 1395 1930 2017 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785 555 555 375 555 410 475 460 475 565 630 1055 725 735 795 650 980 1280 1090 950 785 700 680 485 600 905 945 970 1035 1225 1250 1120 1175 1265 955 1180 1020 862 1562 1260 1050 750 1065 1240 1052 965 872 760 1045 840 922 682 1100 1047 1057 887 930 852 1297 867 857 1097 1130 1177 920 662 760 655 615 710 820 790 850 895 837 702 767 1077 1240 747 835 717 365 517 450 390 695 455 617 317 682 672 712 790 917 722 1242 1827 2005 1372 1472 1480 902 795 897 1110 1040 1802 1950 1737 1487 1297 1292 1132 1192 1182 1210 430 622 455 817 870 542 680 595 612 622 727 557 485 400 425 352 452 557 557 695 662 935 810 870 732 602 445 332 420 527 465 547 352 430 570 735 685 625 527 675 1005 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=112 KeyCode=BKT19_m DATA:Tree 1120 250 1015 1430 1297 687 995 1030 950 1572 1495 1300 1385 925 972 1165 1037 1122 940 602 627 762 625 795 982 1035 1325 1520 1700 1542 1540 1775 1982 1672 1600 1600 735 1417 1162 1192 1632 1317 1560 1140 1875 1410 1695 1770 1360 1225 1427 1395 1360 1290 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1002 1140 1095 765 907 1020 905 1237 1560 1025 875 1117 1272 1172 1157 1012 902 1215 1092 1310 642 1087 957 922 862 872 832 982 520 695 820 1147 1367 945 645 757 495 452 600 500 550 667 637 557 500 672 1005 840 630 667 545 365 507 430 340 935 652 457 347 465 570 660 1065 675 432 817 1155 790 622 595 652 482 482 562 670 622 565 420 522 515 487 465 530 505 495 627 325 410 375 497 400 360 285 377 350 362 370 427 445 395 370 302 312 252 352 425 395 477 452 400 397 450 350 262 345 370 382 442 367 357 520 485 437 380 362 385 485 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=106 KeyCode=BKT28_m DATA:Tree 1465 1235 935 905 805 705 730 425 730 1065 565 905 1070 735 717 810 685 897 947 920 970 1017 935 977 1077 1077 1100 1070 1085 1255 807 1532 1117 1272 1655 1095 1337 947 1482 1517 1707 1875 1745 1675 1725 1800 1640 1405 1462 1707 1185 950 1002 1197 1152 1220 1165 1057 985 1060 1135 1042 810 1205 1352 670 950 685 1130 1017 1135 1015 1007 1030 807 967 967 932 852 905 627 740 750 952 1145 977 1665 1355 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1272 1520 1215 1192 1760 2100 1702 2190 1917 1532 2190 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=85 KeyCode=BKT30_m DATA:Tree 1007 925 907 900 807 777 717 627 692 550 685 637 810 1050 817 910 580 1027 1220 1200 1515 1275 1235 1515 1320 1175 1017 1302 940 942 802 700 812 785 955 1287 910 937 952 1045 1142 935 1140 1320 427 642 562 910 850 470 717 655 472 457 657 612 545 490 467 507 672 632 582 702 690 745 890 812 955 742 770 562 635 822 790 652 625 535 600 600 600 462 482 647 655 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=114 KeyCode=BKT31_m DATA:Tree 540 990 1505 1495 1897 1737 2000 1137 1672 1485 1395 1785 1657 1257 1552 1127 972 1190 1317 1482 1375 910 1302 985 912 1135 950 1202 1300 1560 1512 1275 1722 1637 1560 1240 1442 1377 667 1097 902 850 1232 705 922 597 1070 1105 1170 1295 1067 1037 1225 1462 1442 1277 1330 1512 1175 955 1132 1230 1290 1275 1190 1090 987 852 975 942 945 977 1047 900 1145 1127 1435 1410 1080 1162 932 935 712 920 717 715 615 762 467 547 650 692 852 697 837 760 727 607 565 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487 450 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=31 KeyCode=BKT35_m DATA:Tree 1107 1187 1445 1035 1105 1087 1392 1327 1222 1272 1420 1665 1645 2400 2537 1790 1947 1620 1475 1877 1990 1960 1512 2207 2595 2902 2610 2210 1937 1840 1720 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=56 KeyCode=BKT36_m DATA:Tree 1000 1110 1100 1050 850 575 405 630 860 1455 2927 2785 2452 2880 3162 1905 2470 2245 2730 2800 2610 2225 2112 2075 1555 1907 1555 1285 1170 1237 1062 1067 1062 1152 1315 1327 1702 1335 1325 1062 955 1017 742 735 977 955 842 737 645 697 745 685 480 505 487 515 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=89 KeyCode=bkt37_m DATA:Tree 265 280 120 160 250 405 230 225 435 540 615 790 710 295 145 125 235 225 510 570 530 862 1155 1317 1190 1330 1075 1352 1455 1437 1480 1660 1920 1557 1490 1532 1782 1832 1830 2032 1900 1635 1610 1857 1757 1500 2075 2677 1065 1855 1420 1305 1740 1485 1597 1537 1520 1377 2397 1617 1710 1827 1657 1267 1550 1620 1950 1850 1355 2400 1975 1947 1870 1842 1812 820 1495 2317 2050 2087 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900 1400 1162 1445 1137 1412 1110 1305 1160 1842 1790 1567 1377 1750 1940 1602 1882 1667 1800 2257 1650 2315 1450 2510 2167 1822 1422 1767 1645 2010 1092 932 1275 1717 1660 1280 1167 1382 857 862 1192 1067 1180 1215 1492 1460 1227 1712 1862 1625 1250 1282 1052 630 800 590 522 787 502 675 427 715 942 1037 1062 835 705 1027 1180 1147 1035 1130 940 837 777 1112 932 797 805 730 612 637 662 775 815 777 722 932 817 872 890 1205 1292 820 782 552 535 400 455 382 365 370 407 220 270 280 270 420 340 345 395 445 437 377 390 230 355 357 407 415 330 325 335 375 382 412 392 362 365 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=123 KeyCode=BKT61_m DATA:Tree 1030 1025 1370 1375 1185 1547 1420 1407 1640 1892 1642 1790 1685 2192 1795 2352 960 2075 1680 1652 1472 1612 1765 1987 1472 1462 2360 2245 2127 1767 1167 1355 1215 970 1075 1212 1215 1117 1082 850 1147 1095 1045 1197 937 855 772 535 862 810 860 1235 935 1262 825 1177 1222 1415 1280 967 850 1087 1130 1180 930 1307 1252 897 875 1080 1242 1322 1270 1352 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947 972 887 937 990 955 930 1100 1245 1327 1105 870 837 892 810 1105 902 832 827 785 807 1072 1325 1272 1235 1075 942 845 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=81 KeyCode=BRA27_m DATA:Tree 780 865 745 960 475 690 730 872 1032 832 600 670 590 657 660 655 775 835 717 880 1062 1312 1245 1432 1422 867 1287 1460 1267 1285 1607 1557 1300 1117 1162 1642 1635 1775 1455 1185 1015 1262 1057 1330 1500 1157 990 1022 710 527 767 745 882 1030 1097 780 732 860 892 1277 1377 1395 1277 1320 1027 1157 1490 1350 1665 1605 1817 2277 1992 1907 2392 2340 1645 1642 1715 1450 1502 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=81 KeyCode=BRA28_m DATA:Tree 835 807 1070 1362 1590 1105 1690 1375 1450 1870 1612 2225 1865 2607 2482 1420 1467 1172 1315 1660 1680 1717 1812 2225 2765 2165 1957 1882 2152 2030 2340 2560 2165 2195 2047 2527 2577 2092 2825 2792 3070 3247 3635 3442 2802 2775 3167 2102 1740 1655 2645 2210 2662 2512 2400 1662 1915 1910 1857 2012 1725 1942 2617 2695 2015 2027 2135 1570 1887 2505 2187 2015 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KeyCode=BRA30_m DATA:Tree 1180 1660 2100 2200 2355 2110 2015 1725 1720 1652 1910 2037 2082 2545 1917 1860 2260 2387 2340 2327 2230 1925 1332 1562 1035 1025 1212 1280 1900 1757 2717 2237 2687 2157 1925 2700 3377 2742 2912 2312 2277 2377 1950 2167 2460 2705 2677 2605 3082 2332 2492 2450 2810 3217 2465 2897 3105 2715 3480 2777 3150 2665 2197 2055 2130 1347 1250 1937 1497 1447 1515 1400 972 1052 1037 1082 1032 1152 1465 1530 1320 1220 1115 1097 960 877 1047 975 825 937 910 1295 1610 1377 1425 680 860 1045 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=91 KeyCode=BRA31_mk DATA:Tree 1935 1585 1845 2215 2050 2010 2157 1997 2130 2305 1800 2012 1930 2102 1772 1147 1882 1620 1742 2007 1762 1682 1365 1605 1557 1637 1580 1560 1430 1335 1190 1597 1307 1230 1657 1325 1270 1112 1257 1292 1562 1427 1180 1187 1060 1157 1112 982 1180 1412 1280 1625 1320 1882 1850 1755 1562 1530 1137 1237 1705 1242 1352 1237 1255 1275 1360 1162 1102 1077 1005 1282 1117 1137 927 932 870 750 840 1025 1062 987 892 817 1220 1472 1255 1667 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567 607 675 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=270 KeyCode=BRA34_m DATA:Tree 1370 1000 830 1025 1230 920 1000 1140 1280 1150 1145 1280 1155 1037 1102 1295 1307 1410 1200 1380 1042 1100 937 1092 755 765 782 805 787 972 847 787 725 795 945 927 957 782 842 792 1087 1187 1055 887 1032 1055 1042 1440 1645 1202 1482 1107 855 900 960 1172 1370 1340 1240 1437 1120 1125 1200 1010 1195 1530 1177 1290 1360 1445 1447 1395 1385 1180 967 1327 1075 1132 1387 1172 1017 1237 1165 1052 940 822 817 830 980 837 892 757 892 1122 770 862 575 602 600 447 465 382 295 555 640 615 705 635 850 735 767 865 792 752 765 1010 975 630 622 677 832 792 925 1017 667 845 717 710 622 607 492 555 420 515 485 432 372 507 550 472 560 680 962 1057 1075 1020 870 975 975 1115 1185 967 842 800 892 1185 1277 882 915 812 737 662 815 645 870 805 925 740 725 650 880 580 600 707 695 622 532 505 472 487 480 475 402 305 420 522 640 495 670 750 590 562 677 692 420 635 630 547 625 457 457 442 797 640 790 765 760 645 915 707 725 657 767 642 582 635 682 770 665 847 795 750 790 655 627 692 587 670 705 667 702 655 722 650 590 510 530 505 587 567 495 502 597 605 540 517 510 560 620 747 670 687 717 592 612 585 500 732 660 557 560 637 625 870 960 737 837 772 780 777 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=255 KeyCode=BRA35_m DATA:Tree 525 570 760 695 560 725 690 315 410 200 260 195 405 400 335 130 210 345 585 420 410 345 205 245 240 400 245 125 365 775 840 580 700 580 460 480 405 390 520 480 505 700 525 605 995 675 1055 917 1007 960 1237 835 922 812 1095 937 790 777 565 535 772 547 847 990 1080 682 1102 930 882 895 872 612 655 652 857 620 650 647 707 542 555 325 285 567 397 272 190 167 352 437 472 827 550 712 727 840 935 667 677 592 812 825 567 537 557 727 895 1202 1167 710 805 765 787 862 797 800 845 585 682 695 495 400 527 502 377 457 577 630 627 637 670 587 577 610 632 747 672 447 535 522 680 837 637 587 620 522 667 717 775 835 782 742 670 795 667 857 650 740 715 735 682 502 542 472 507 465 530 487 602 672 642 657 527 662 645 577 577 747 692 500 572 525 527 622 585 507 565 715 582 622 537 470 402 545 477 497 510 617 565 522 542 465 602 490 582 597 537 487 445 495 475 442 487 577 347 597 527 737 722 692 627 622 507 470 575 422 430 397 345 347 382 327 430 372 387 445 407 450 390 392 312 310 472 387 427 415 422 425 582 635 547 717 652 767 810 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=88 KeyCode=BRA36_m DATA:Tree 830 862 1045 1337 1377 1227 1205 1162 1125 937 957 1067 702 755 562 590 680 495 465 485 670 860 777 830 735 627 767 805 1050 880 1210 1305 1125 1005 1040 1067 1160 1217 1225 802 725 812 865 1022 875 1197 1065 862 1052 1210 1342 1057 850 897 827 597 595 797 682 605 652 737 515 697 662 675 755 770 890 820 965 887 865 1020 607 777 790 800 655 782 745 950 947 737 692 637 625 822 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=75 KeyCode=BRA39_m DATA:Tree 560 710 980 605 690 635 450 840 1190 965 970 910 555 835 980 1235 1245 1755 2122 1582 1702 1672 1702 1732 1437 1475 1582 1557 1615 2025 1840 1830 1892 1750 1605 1902 1830 1895 1887 1367 2095 1212 1155 1460 1855 1452 1752 1822 1915 1132 1677 1495 1342 1427 1595 2057 1977 2092 1227 1167 1650 1445 1662 1840 1647 1387 1407 1082 1452 2012 1882 1997 1480 1332 1537 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=221 KeyCode=BRA3_m DATA:Tree 1085 1590 1025 1095 1250 1560 2175 1855 2090 2150 1640 1500 2125 1650 1725 1685 1495 1840 2010 1915 1850 1720 1645 1825 1650 1040 1070 1005 1160 1095 935 780 1040 1250 1645 1220 1070 1610 1220 1705 1155 1385 1645 2420 1945 1290 1915 960 955 455 405 250 350 370 660 990 1070 1890 1410 1695 1635 1805 3875 2385 2415 1625 2610 2710 2405 1920 1895 1675 1145 1005 910 730 1160 1055 1120 1215 1065 980 875 735 680 835 800 685 1090 1180 1065 1690 1415 1765 1595 1365 1180 1260 1210 1345 1200 1485 1060 770 720 780 830 940 800 855 835 800 1040 955 770 795 870 890 750 775 500 795 570 450 520 550 510 580 485 490 540 535 610 535 525 575 650 635 475 650 565 510 445 615 445 290 525 495 510 585 610 520 565 740 645 925 695 800 610 750 790 845 695 700 720 670 800 885 890 910 960 880 695 625 690 595 785 735 940 1125 560 960 860 925 820 685 620 515 555 535 755 575 730 695 730 515 530 520 465 595 545 695 670 680 495 515 460 350 400 490 505 395 475 375 615 515 510 480 665 635 435 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=88 KeyCode=BRA40_m DATA:Tree 805 1095 1010 997 862 900 1042 1042 1100 820 915 997 615 460 352 550 537 467 407 440 690 795 757 795 790 690 800 712 862 775 930 890 705 702 597 712 607 842 940 897 545 627 750 667 462 640 737 695 1257 1052 1080 1122 950 967 982 857 675 945 632 790 967 1105 702 692 680 855 925 1105 1625 1185 1022 982 1057 1200 1157 1597 1647 1432 1485 1515 1755 2082 2587 2365 2482 2557 2545 2945 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=214 KeyCode=BRA41_m DATA:Tree 1695 1655 1140 1285 1120 1755 1885 1762 1805 2325 1425 1492 1707 1675 1717 1607 2007 1397 1425 1572 1332 1510 1387 1635 1310 1202 1215 1277 1142 850 872 772 860 867 797 725 775 1020 695 625 420 307 307 230 257 292 242 362 627 772 987 945 1250 835 887 802 645 565 567 615 657 305 382 352 500 660 782 917 467 700 670 742 1035 765 920 797 502 580 567 495 487 715 705 560 450 527 555 675 637 577 470 485 542 595 557 467 365 352 482 660 745 645 595 655 655 860 1030 1082 1010 755 975 1102 1292 897 1180 910 820 917 1127 1025 865 782 647 565 530 595 577 645 745 917 757 577 667 822 605 607 680 702 497 640 597 545 715 550 642 507 885 870 990 1015 1000 635 820 805 945 780 960 812 717 662 822 905 927 1167 1090 895 872 850 955 990 870 970 1065 932 1272 1177 1590 1810 1792 1567 1617 1365 917 1325 1165 1027 870 1012 895 960 837 760 812 812 585 462 375 405 385 445 407 632 557 607 655 780 850 1125 1167 1170 1070 1072 992 1090 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=200 KeyCode=BRA42_m DATA:Tree 1040 1030 835 795 665 1060 770 850 1020 910 920 850 680 940 1167 1120 1010 1002 1452 1522 1365 1222 1307 1192 1050 957 660 840 682 762 650 665 722 1140 1512 1552 1970 1170 1145 1285 1390 1345 910 780 922 1345 1420 827 1227 1017 1542 1757 1417 1545 1032 1077 1172 1487 1432 1070 1150 1357 850 765 805 982 760 1027 1292 927 742 935 1107 1137 1352 1372 1052 1032 1152 1092 1332 1125 1145 910 967 1327 1132 717 715 682 972 1170 1282 1345 1272 1002 1127 987 992 885 982 802 617 800 792 815 705 737 610 782 582 705 647 712 857 1042 940 780 882 885 750 762 812 780 597 825 762 555 850 597 615 412 810 752 977 1127 997 635 860 822 982 805 777 717 712 562 605 682 550 657 575 420 520 530 555 530 522 367 407 285 352 465 545 565 462 490 465 477 442 612 552 502 457 510 462 407 415 412 442 410 445 492 445 645 537 480 400 705 707 782 727 832 677 1042 1107 850 1202 942 885 1075 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=396 KeyCode=BRA43 DATA:Tree 865 815 850 1060 1455 1145 1205 1690 1100 1265 1435 1480 1585 1615 1745 1810 1702 1685 1815 1875 1825 2015 2042 1877 2062 1937 2117 1872 2167 2282 1880 2140 2215 1670 1827 1335 1605 1377 1407 1502 1792 1557 1562 1800 1680 1937 1645 2052 1687 1885 1547 1472 1335 1357 885 992 955 885 672 720 797 735 845 912 932 977 1035 945 1062 1072 995 1235 1317 1327 1105 1070 1117 902 1105 990 1040 842 647 930 830 805 870 982 965 900 887 767 735 930 1045 875 737 822 980 842 965 925 730 805 645 577 535 655 475 557 497 570 740 725 672 632 650 750 877 965 750 760 802 690 455 417 367 397 305 425 455 502 525 557 592 727 642 705 625 550 485 467 527 700 640 665 747 690 597 757 535 627 635 762 650 765 812 615 650 572 805 850 840 775 670 482 632 495 520 422 480 477 402 452 560 500 555 497 582 512 485 490 540 515 452 642 545 557 535 432 455 635 472 487 590 647 620 652 735 532 530 540 555 597 585 605 537 590 602 590 545 435 485 395 455 427 405 417 522 515 357 462 290 305 225 165 197 170 122 230 165 220 182 180 202 232 275 245 250 310 280 320 335 245 302 335 427 462 570 582 365 542 487 427 465 485 497 410 365 447 350 315 305 350 550 375 432 427 452 465 502 520 432 430 435 432 425 425 382 380 360 435 357 332 337 370 420 350 365 317 332 337 315 267 305 260 382 312 292 360 382 382 312 295 262 230 257 295 315 342 357 375 357 272 402 420 347 350 320 335 225 355 325 297 372 275 310 260 405 357 360 395 395 390 592 540 545 492 567 477 532 420 517 500 470 537 622 482 460 467 517 470 440 397 492 390 505 515 540 662 557 530 482 457 402 475 455 450 460 577 490 522 407 470 475 420 377 405 467 477 417 450 292 562 530 585 635 772 642 790 872 582 662 642 650 785 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=420 KeyCode=BRA44_m DATA:Tree 800 945 710 760 885 505 600 595 565 650 535 390 360 480 645 685 750 450 520 385 575 575 665 855 715 525 415 260 390 490 485 470 345 510 630 840 1160 1085 965 1010 970 975 1067 965 1087 920 1132 960 1025 855 930 785 775 802 920 647 830 632 762 485 605 620 705 692 730 757 695 780 642 955 742 870 975 982 980 1095 800 797 670 647 577 527 542 567 587 562 510 522 532 462 612 725 792 700 695 747 715 710 712 562 640 655 712 590 492 497 385 450 482 362 377 495 602 542 522 515 520 537 555 532 750 712 655 500 512 597 410 512 510 412 260 347 370 460 482 492 495 650 635 652 655 712 665 767 645 715 577 482 395 305 265 390 355 445 385 485 585 572 612 640 522 672 692 537 625 607 690 867 772 755 1020 822 632 745 542 557 630 735 655 712 775 627 512 592 685 822 670 565 645 512 502 470 490 405 540 595 495 577 580 440 542 485 495 467 535 547 642 637 585 800 580 857 855 700 760 1052 900 1010 1190 920 892 825 802 577 667 882 627 800 920 785 800 787 677 780 562 552 597 567 542 512 452 455 577 547 415 357 187 127 87 50 50 50 67 105 97 85 80 115 125 140 125 137 140 202 240 230 197 130 165 142 210 230 247 240 170 262 220 242 292 202 230 270 167 187 145 145 130 205 247 232 232 260 327 332 365 360 282 342 385 480 442 482 332 427 422 460 437 385 480 442 422 460 405 427 382 412 455 377 442 372 387 320 342 327 337 277 217 277 205 200 210 267 207 217 297 340 325 302 412 540 337 360 332 322 230 292 285 230 327 250 305 320 437 422 415 570 460 310 515 360 455 407 495 465 387 485 455 405 490 510 460 390 365 390 515 505 425 650 500 502 520 542 505 535 500 530 427 380 357 540 447 385 412 410 352 352 320 400 385 387 400 430 470 547 422 427 370 582 547 635 625 565 492 720 700 592 835 777 710 787 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=199 KeyCode=BRA45_m DATA:Tree 685 830 705 700 660 610 730 785 730 640 490 560 600 655 665 610 450 565 585 490 585 500 600 420 460 435 485 355 295 270 280 305 415 600 460 582 545 610 655 787 737 812 680 570 707 802 615 872 732 1122 1315 1040 1490 1125 1150 1202 1652 1550 1307 1252 1227 1055 1080 1135 940 835 1072 1062 1005 855 1052 1310 1680 1485 1195 1205 1480 1685 1322 1785 1650 1560 1527 1570 1647 1945 1590 1772 1520 1995 1640 2075 1982 1860 1887 1810 1677 1630 1497 1740 1572 1015 1720 1480 1572 1362 1312 1217 1407 1070 1027 1040 1110 1340 1310 1310 1282 1682 1587 1580 1492 1295 1210 810 1025 970 1097 1172 980 1027 752 1105 1117 1390 1225 1220 855 955 910 1035 782 907 905 772 627 802 817 937 1125 1020 787 760 800 930 792 685 825 917 942 1137 1035 1070 1137 1075 935 877 915 602 847 657 705 707 737 782 702 710 692 742 557 622 647 625 532 560 557 377 612 707 697 620 842 592 1252 1480 1252 1597 1345 1062 1300 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=167 KeyCode=BRA46_m DATA:Tree 337 435 420 627 717 755 947 930 707 665 630 770 987 1022 915 1307 1152 1290 1692 1517 2035 1385 1530 1562 2112 1932 1907 1632 1805 1357 1365 1287 1455 1350 1527 1402 1227 1212 1297 1667 1700 1795 1647 1460 1385 1460 1432 1712 1790 1452 1577 1672 1937 1822 1470 1365 1412 1657 1520 1742 1590 1740 1545 1507 1680 1625 1165 1527 1262 1062 1460 1222 1250 1105 915 940 1020 900 920 897 1047 1040 1282 1095 1010 1030 1135 1130 1002 1145 877 620 792 885 875 1325 1077 992 857 1140 1055 1185 1220 1022 730 935 937 982 862 942 850 765 690 867 920 997 1097 985 880 995 872 832 905 720 632 867 727 980 952 977 1127 895 1037 1072 1087 877 1020 995 917 842 897 815 920 795 775 742 750 657 812 750 607 575 560 445 650 530 585 665 605 520 805 750 760 722 645 557 677 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=224 KeyCode=BRA47_m DATA:Tree 1095 1435 1395 1660 1682 1247 1082 1117 1007 1415 1462 1680 1485 1725 1757 1592 1325 1480 1617 1695 1582 1635 1832 1830 1630 1432 1595 1542 1550 1822 1407 1780 1675 1825 1605 1482 1280 1455 1315 1185 1197 1147 1387 1130 940 1025 1280 1142 927 775 440 422 272 150 140 132 102 215 335 377 447 352 537 482 612 602 397 392 417 647 867 505 682 575 772 772 775 870 465 617 490 675 722 552 540 565 462 547 582 597 485 530 607 477 567 697 955 987 1000 1005 757 870 1205 1090 1377 1067 1007 1025 1075 1322 1390 872 775 787 817 692 740 902 835 787 725 660 807 790 775 632 555 645 810 720 565 530 560 520 660 712 552 717 975 1317 1072 782 945 1052 747 682 880 705 457 532 640 640 847 617 605 492 782 762 1022 952 760 495 700 730 830 665 757 872 707 665 650 792 702 795 785 760 720 635 672 675 677 702 865 682 1012 992 1045 1112 997 1155 1170 937 790 1055 1007 902 967 1055 1040 1010 945 882 1000 960 912 870 875 720 652 710 640 885 785 810 715 910 812 1187 1325 1007 1265 1022 937 1135 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=356 KeyCode=BRA48_m DATA:Tree 395 350 390 570 585 645 555 730 690 660 777 805 987 1010 845 722 655 640 590 557 520 450 490 640 475 532 677 620 982 1152 1380 1480 1400 1575 1395 1225 1005 800 825 790 810 835 440 505 500 370 520 610 720 925 910 795 925 865 1165 990 1030 1150 1075 845 755 875 705 590 600 495 265 350 335 355 415 365 415 510 515 605 730 640 732 655 655 677 677 665 537 462 342 377 400 472 440 470 467 547 535 492 582 517 442 487 567 860 995 1485 1262 1390 1237 1200 882 1005 807 657 622 640 565 667 680 577 530 572 765 787 807 622 662 612 617 617 537 442 507 565 475 485 515 405 460 377 335 297 327 385 450 455 430 587 545 647 685 592 705 767 635 795 850 757 775 800 797 572 590 622 617 705 792 862 715 655 667 667 652 630 547 517 597 552 350 462 610 557 435 390 260 247 210 165 147 58 75 135 135 170 205 205 287 322 387 370 332 292 317 347 390 265 270 287 382 332 352 387 257 360 292 330 337 262 255 232 200 220 182 247 210 245 262 245 242 302 297 295 330 305 297 267 307 317 395 405 362 362 385 385 455 457 455 390 430 372 455 425 430 430 482 440 485 477 522 380 397 315 282 300 237 270 257 212 242 270 317 370 422 470 422 395 467 565 492 515 467 440 375 402 385 317 420 305 307 302 350 350 335 340 330 265 402 380 382 335 355 367 307 335 347 375 402 460 430 357 355 342 410 445 470 547 665 617 797 830 845 820 730 650 577 437 462 507 495 507 467 537 582 627 622 525 595 515 560 665 650 550 512 537 460 665 605 582 540 607 505 767 825 727 730 832 830 827 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=99 KeyCode=BRA49_m DATA:Tree 960 550 825 640 910 1040 1000 1135 1560 1472 1795 1600 1920 1690 1830 1662 1992 2005 2355 1762 1585 1730 1505 1177 1675 1740 1527 1825 1490 1620 1537 1942 2090 2122 2402 2045 1527 1852 1925 2477 2082 2165 2417 2202 2097 2090 2100 2007 1967 1987 1657 1495 1557 1930 1855 1720 2050 2385 2125 2267 2275 2175 1962 1665 1722 1885 1935 1552 1905 1525 1385 1127 1287 1220 1117 857 890 1217 1120 1305 1390 1425 1155 1150 1327 1060 1405 1722 1392 1307 1360 1062 1695 2110 1840 2257 2335 2050 2162 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=82 KeyCode=BRA4_m DATA:Tree 2415 1975 2435 2285 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515 650 660 675 555 740 737 552 572 615 755 827 1025 905 827 675 692 790 875 912 797 645 775 917 910 710 650 605 677 767 772 727 690 585 595 480 560 592 750 557 550 615 700 690 507 512 520 430 440 487 440 482 527 725 650 500 597 740 502 517 475 510 407 382 407 395 457 280 365 327 405 400 372 422 440 290 472 430 510 482 625 605 405 405 455 442 497 507 347 385 307 277 297 325 310 295 355 302 345 370 450 477 437 417 455 367 405 430 355 405 370 392 372 470 517 515 557 517 515 615 530 592 505 567 417 675 585 672 557 642 532 1057 1207 882 957 1080 892 950 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=200 KeyCode=BRA51_m DATA:Tree 560 385 725 555 325 650 445 655 700 920 1070 1210 1025 1285 1200 1260 1225 1005 1825 1710 1440 1215 1860 1615 1385 1205 725 850 540 370 435 440 325 930 1485 1215 1457 1167 1650 1520 1640 1762 1147 1240 1077 1720 1607 1130 1292 1002 1600 1620 1957 2107 1275 1575 1572 1737 1520 1205 1280 1395 887 1195 1120 1100 1002 1155 1050 885 985 1122 1237 900 1207 1162 1230 1137 1360 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DateEnd=1988 Length=337 KeyCode=BVE1_m DATA:Tree 565 430 585 645 845 725 720 710 820 610 810 865 835 715 955 890 685 615 530 685 575 565 450 305 385 410 240 395 345 490 740 740 762 645 620 960 820 895 955 987 937 920 1020 890 637 690 520 447 565 492 532 470 505 587 870 670 890 832 1055 882 922 880 992 772 840 427 585 597 732 715 805 677 805 855 1010 945 902 992 1035 1015 1010 1205 1195 1040 1117 1017 982 987 870 657 927 602 650 640 867 715 945 820 765 710 772 752 882 897 850 887 670 732 800 730 590 840 1067 650 850 960 950 880 637 520 542 590 640 766 641 570 708 541 670 833 668 900 1118 760 811 931 883 715 763 701 575 631 806 720 706 785 885 786 860 705 661 630 698 573 568 721 730 501 475 503 468 325 326 230 198 221 133 183 161 143 295 478 593 635 563 533 596 606 541 501 486 565 620 678 521 505 546 698 750 755 948 646 796 851 793 736 640 656 511 376 406 380 430 278 383 488 390 363 511 515 746 731 618 536 498 535 668 880 931 781 815 758 1133 1058 651 756 843 841 705 690 623 728 751 715 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1552 1500 1660 1292 1532 1482 1637 1672 1300 1200 1125 1422 1457 1070 895 972 1060 947 905 930 1127 1137 1067 915 652 682 950 792 742 847 702 630 617 642 557 527 510 570 545 647 665 717 585 572 635 812 857 767 862 700 572 715 670 647 717 542 665 507 715 557 605 582 510 297 590 522 512 372 410 380 270 255 492 375 407 547 572 487 515 517 547 507 422 395 470 362 430 405 377 305 365 312 287 325 300 360 337 300 220 207 232 230 212 242 297 255 312 335 352 312 237 307 275 242 212 185 230 227 217 235 320 212 212 222 272 262 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=233 KeyCode=BVE25_m DATA:Tree 1075 1370 930 1090 885 825 695 990 760 520 495 550 645 1050 855 610 665 832 1040 1005 1137 1197 1237 1375 1570 1392 1582 1735 1902 1130 1125 1192 1080 922 902 947 890 1052 1232 1112 1260 1110 1105 1065 1120 870 1315 1085 870 902 895 1105 860 760 827 867 960 745 765 490 677 510 417 572 580 625 832 1272 1197 1275 1165 1112 1080 1040 987 860 715 862 945 810 617 807 577 717 885 917 1032 735 920 927 685 487 370 452 647 630 640 717 745 902 1110 1072 1155 1117 822 872 877 845 810 680 655 860 920 1230 1105 1017 1032 862 945 835 607 385 387 427 372 425 332 487 560 447 405 382 395 567 455 700 1017 712 452 380 312 425 370 340 327 387 417 455 495 385 272 410 527 407 410 475 457 302 515 375 277 322 247 290 280 492 340 400 367 322 257 355 280 240 197 295 250 200 130 220 200 157 240 255 262 227 237 212 190 202 257 280 460 925 905 860 570 385 355 315 320 340 410 340 320 245 260 260 320 160 215 220 180 275 245 240 185 190 195 135 270 220 220 220 140 140 275 205 130 240 220 250 235 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=231 KeyCode=BVE26_m DATA:Tree 865 1120 1110 1117 670 880 845 705 817 752 780 972 662 592 572 490 645 750 895 950 830 892 1037 917 1095 1270 1387 837 1070 1097 845 702 805 1027 1045 1192 1445 1125 1365 1240 1315 1197 1275 960 1172 1002 832 947 737 825 782 897 682 965 980 672 610 337 312 210 95 150 177 267 502 717 735 665 510 537 732 782 700 635 555 642 845 822 667 890 622 695 772 702 932 567 792 715 625 727 630 687 680 525 460 450 407 402 625 647 637 702 765 805 887 892 930 842 790 797 755 927 932 862 812 865 947 1037 647 602 530 487 517 610 677 830 812 792 535 617 450 535 405 477 467 410 392 320 262 175 242 262 310 375 415 607 675 807 505 687 895 835 870 820 657 442 527 410 332 400 287 315 297 415 437 437 550 487 300 402 375 445 370 440 380 305 265 385 337 320 422 370 302 312 310 332 352 272 310 360 280 357 407 405 365 375 355 325 315 392 410 435 397 430 410 325 295 285 355 360 387 425 502 427 417 495 467 300 470 415 415 340 337 262 470 495 425 487 380 397 382 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=142 KeyCode=BVE28_m DATA:Tree 825 910 860 952 862 852 945 1170 1005 1247 1180 1407 1382 1607 1655 1847 1862 1855 1862 1637 1657 1577 2120 2157 2125 1985 1877 1990 2012 1640 1480 1845 2030 2022 2120 2027 2200 2012 1540 1447 1367 1485 2100 1715 1352 1702 1445 1235 1245 960 1152 1317 1200 1200 1285 1310 1587 1610 1370 1392 1372 1730 1807 1627 1490 1337 1017 1467 1112 1260 1545 1242 1220 827 1137 895 1080 1052 1132 965 1085 835 1105 785 1262 1670 1060 1070 1175 1197 1255 1622 1527 1360 1032 985 1010 757 740 777 807 432 615 615 740 567 692 720 715 777 742 1010 942 710 605 487 490 472 510 642 770 872 1065 797 860 815 722 722 507 697 892 757 775 792 570 785 807 530 925 712 640 745 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=203 KeyCode=BVE29_m DATA:Tree 710 1040 1035 1565 1225 1255 1285 1135 905 875 1090 1105 952 932 857 997 1110 1185 975 857 802 987 732 580 617 620 812 665 647 612 462 422 337 232 222 180 350 337 390 455 535 537 415 582 532 437 497 557 622 380 570 647 587 545 932 1112 1452 910 1445 1220 1007 1075 1040 1032 1162 865 807 927 830 712 860 957 940 1060 1105 1317 1520 1717 1577 1462 1395 1455 1727 2365 1892 1370 1280 1392 1555 1370 1142 1255 1220 1402 1337 1435 1137 1242 1185 1400 1180 1007 952 1415 1072 1002 1097 987 1047 937 830 732 785 782 822 820 767 942 1015 940 827 1185 1252 1165 960 1080 1002 672 847 837 780 912 680 777 657 947 702 677 797 665 542 882 687 895 625 865 737 707 692 987 770 735 1012 945 700 810 777 797 685 740 810 825 405 827 667 777 647 635 677 695 585 575 885 845 720 710 660 555 540 585 540 705 610 710 785 770 755 695 695 405 660 725 595 680 680 490 945 815 520 710 585 635 665 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=193 KeyCode=BVE2_mk DATA:Tree 1890 1985 1815 1635 1440 1360 1830 1465 1215 1172 1252 1887 1812 1650 1545 1805 1537 1155 1420 837 912 747 605 702 735 740 995 1575 1822 2090 1937 1905 1785 1682 1275 1282 1230 1075 1407 1545 985 1307 1090 1565 1647 1807 1855 1020 1392 1450 1735 1607 1470 1232 1227 1007 1012 875 805 682 935 902 887 1227 1287 1530 1537 1532 1565 1490 1380 1380 1462 1860 1857 1470 1235 1202 1392 1417 1070 1042 845 880 912 967 810 947 967 992 882 800 790 1132 902 822 812 785 705 655 715 637 612 562 590 627 577 720 685 680 597 570 640 635 540 670 612 425 577 515 467 550 397 410 367 567 447 447 465 505 367 520 470 465 455 597 547 467 345 585 647 495 695 550 435 450 430 487 432 387 452 560 417 465 550 610 647 582 637 470 475 492 550 422 412 412 385 290 395 425 387 472 440 527 547 622 545 520 497 327 475 447 387 367 375 310 370 392 285 412 382 387 422 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=222 KeyCode=BVE30_m DATA:Tree 575 830 985 730 700 725 580 630 685 930 925 795 575 750 865 820 1025 1090 845 940 875 745 740 720 740 740 725 850 935 1045 950 1145 1135 1195 930 1120 807 720 662 500 402 437 372 447 482 585 362 272 105 127 127 80 72 120 102 155 342 357 482 560 645 615 662 722 467 417 462 512 570 440 432 307 432 675 710 855 695 790 712 750 1027 1105 962 1020 870 792 717 762 655 855 872 820 910 1145 1177 1585 1497 1440 1370 1030 1290 995 1227 1347 1140 1120 967 1320 1505 1092 990 1242 1360 1115 1022 1192 1190 1222 1080 1330 927 1070 1157 990 847 952 942 905 925 742 657 835 685 830 852 895 1072 1127 1062 1047 1237 1215 1337 1165 1167 882 687 937 865 780 1035 877 1147 750 912 875 1105 1110 1020 847 1027 885 1045 835 965 1082 767 700 792 930 862 887 902 820 632 685 807 675 735 840 870 660 835 717 835 835 897 912 950 885 807 950 825 937 800 675 532 625 607 630 755 822 900 905 1097 1032 980 842 530 770 785 752 680 597 565 910 832 692 1007 820 830 1062 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=237 KeyCode=BVE31_m DATA:Tree 900 805 980 790 900 1060 785 710 695 750 645 815 730 590 965 945 800 970 610 470 410 520 580 550 702 700 802 975 865 850 742 970 1182 870 1085 1112 907 765 755 780 515 485 705 480 717 847 900 597 790 615 757 570 275 340 282 335 417 237 357 545 615 380 320 192 165 82 122 117 127 140 225 330 285 332 422 470 480 567 527 465 375 560 652 647 340 445 422 762 1365 1350 1325 815 1085 900 830 1062 782 785 782 500 472 537 567 500 857 987 1057 875 875 962 1085 1155 1222 1060 972 1210 1100 1347 1247 1070 1060 1042 1247 1105 837 922 925 1030 990 1180 960 872 1007 1140 1070 1027 790 1065 870 875 980 955 900 787 647 577 705 680 710 827 855 1030 965 815 710 642 907 850 742 760 730 407 622 552 450 700 445 565 420 617 662 682 975 762 560 817 687 710 595 625 555 505 400 562 557 447 580 577 470 440 465 495 452 322 425 515 395 417 480 470 432 402 537 410 485 422 552 490 482 422 460 397 342 335 415 490 440 520 567 610 442 380 405 165 352 325 325 312 255 180 430 330 297 367 377 405 425 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=65 KeyCode=BVE32_m DATA:Tree 1342 1485 1975 1797 1837 1740 1350 1672 1757 1437 1220 1182 1120 1207 1320 1132 932 762 675 655 842 760 900 977 822 1030 1065 1587 1730 1497 1937 1707 1745 1320 1535 1085 1080 1105 1335 1410 1392 1140 1180 1342 1450 1620 1362 1625 1185 1267 1650 1445 2090 1922 1840 1855 1702 1695 1922 2097 1777 2132 2175 2120 2250 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=82 KeyCode=BVE33_m DATA:Tree 1300 1457 1385 920 910 817 512 787 550 417 910 382 290 215 327 355 495 500 527 547 682 567 777 652 912 1120 772 775 657 642 697 820 762 630 580 785 730 627 607 890 872 735 850 987 1627 1577 1447 1752 1317 1255 697 1250 870 952 815 830 772 1085 1015 1097 987 1182 1352 1030 1162 902 967 955 690 1010 1082 955 802 685 682 1007 902 907 1160 890 847 1317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=200 KeyCode=BVE34_m DATA:Tree 865 840 725 710 725 685 315 680 530 740 695 1142 937 755 735 630 617 652 675 440 417 347 307 315 345 462 332 232 115 82 87 157 220 235 320 360 402 370 425 360 540 502 450 362 542 640 512 730 1010 565 545 225 222 212 182 272 195 240 282 360 342 342 302 322 275 327 222 322 370 390 460 622 720 850 830 857 690 662 910 885 1040 1067 865 857 740 762 930 752 822 927 1020 802 875 922 857 732 695 627 730 737 822 730 620 657 705 575 607 640 710 660 682 592 620 645 812 952 967 1050 1155 1257 1177 1145 1102 1052 665 955 747 690 1335 895 1075 730 932 725 852 810 817 487 747 520 585 510 850 770 590 542 622 637 610 755 630 427 372 365 337 347 382 405 595 402 487 452 620 592 547 622 525 562 445 547 450 485 405 285 277 272 270 367 292 410 500 397 492 405 337 435 240 377 310 320 367 330 220 375 385 195 307 272 332 432 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=71 KeyCode=BVE35_m DATA:Tree 290 280 250 332 260 495 490 640 675 622 630 787 742 862 1045 897 992 842 847 845 925 1007 945 740 825 1040 917 1020 1150 1255 1207 1507 1190 1515 1742 1480 1580 1290 1197 787 942 840 790 890 922 775 1012 910 1142 1165 1195 1350 1032 1087 930 857 882 695 737 927 902 822 827 797 977 1000 992 1130 1047 1030 1472 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=179 KeyCode=BVE36_m DATA:Tree 325 300 370 260 255 240 185 70 50 225 445 350 390 625 605 785 705 760 910 890 880 950 1115 675 1000 905 550 1025 895 1125 465 1105 1220 960 1175 1425 1605 1835 1645 1365 1150 885 977 1167 1185 1180 1845 1857 2147 2487 2610 2750 3015 3202 2812 2400 2452 2402 2407 2687 2580 1915 1582 1737 2147 1892 1545 1425 1267 1562 1412 1717 1532 1587 1402 1512 1287 1230 1220 1587 1115 1112 1487 1285 1367 1457 1487 1370 1395 1135 1235 1440 1567 1660 1722 1990 1897 1967 1907 2005 1640 1750 1610 1037 1380 1152 1080 1365 1207 1047 977 1452 1210 1207 1267 1365 1062 1370 1435 1532 1237 1495 1572 1130 895 1345 1525 1405 1707 1595 1322 1227 1252 1247 997 892 957 1105 932 1040 1020 1095 997 1027 1015 995 935 910 1242 1095 1012 815 922 842 777 747 937 977 962 1132 1202 1162 827 705 755 407 705 665 525 595 542 360 530 432 470 582 507 597 597 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=273 KeyCode=BVE37_mk DATA:Tree 882 932 867 877 930 817 1052 1172 1187 872 1190 1330 1640 1665 1645 1410 1355 1527 1420 1412 1580 1422 1645 1770 1605 965 1507 1117 1057 1132 1142 937 1250 1230 995 987 1037 1072 1150 1150 1162 1177 812 995 982 1007 872 1240 1245 820 1095 1105 952 1032 812 995 802 870 872 897 917 777 970 702 820 895 885 860 1260 877 757 975 1067 900 855 927 755 690 825 597 800 820 865 827 727 755 817 735 662 627 555 840 645 460 462 600 577 380 527 307 405 380 370 417 375 310 500 625 562 607 652 647 620 670 690 605 600 597 677 690 455 715 610 785 672 677 727 445 685 587 567 565 532 537 487 435 675 510 500 717 612 445 345 395 357 420 410 505 440 357 440 487 502 572 627 430 415 445 442 420 342 330 305 367 327 425 382 395 417 342 275 335 255 307 262 262 322 287 300 215 235 230 170 210 177 220 267 262 277 232 197 230 315 217 145 207 202 130 165 167 150 165 142 145 85 192 167 167 202 160 130 197 210 192 177 202 180 162 157 240 190 167 210 177 127 145 150 175 147 125 155 177 135 182 157 147 160 145 132 102 122 97 132 95 97 102 112 67 107 65 82 95 107 107 87 85 95 85 67 50 82 55 52 60 77 62 110 80 60 65 67 72 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=104 KeyCode=BVE3_m DATA:Tree 865 1380 1060 1135 1525 1585 1265 1385 1500 1215 1300 1130 920 1235 1220 1185 1282 1210 1882 1607 1247 1510 1690 1785 1677 1665 1610 1595 1047 1422 1252 1262 1587 1232 1275 1217 1395 1102 1150 1335 1322 1145 1455 1247 1420 1137 1367 1370 1155 1217 1232 1387 1057 1257 1182 1055 1010 977 1002 837 730 915 1025 802 985 905 1137 1132 1317 1445 1385 1185 1007 1295 892 905 860 940 710 725 685 835 977 1140 1295 1245 1365 1055 937 1000 652 1000 967 890 765 750 775 857 812 652 755 727 722 742 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=228 KeyCode=BVE4_m DATA:Tree 490 505 605 650 680 785 830 1040 1150 780 655 730 595 785 895 1075 1000 1070 1090 1300 1220 1475 1905 2090 1695 1835 2170 2375 1757 1495 1277 1280 1220 1577 1330 1842 1690 1632 1367 1420 1125 1580 1965 1362 1220 955 1127 957 685 652 927 1167 822 817 632 732 585 527 545 535 645 792 1220 950 1017 850 855 830 957 942 745 830 972 1002 1097 702 792 642 762 900 972 1060 927 1110 1062 947 1160 882 875 745 617 512 467 557 455 552 510 462 455 567 592 585 572 650 582 612 485 517 665 617 515 507 577 625 555 537 507 572 610 522 542 600 607 525 460 457 392 427 502 507 580 622 695 590 522 550 447 480 497 497 520 510 577 630 700 727 700 960 815 632 717 712 527 672 577 540 612 592 572 460 740 577 642 652 665 525 715 592 680 507 667 675 587 590 622 575 557 732 737 622 640 527 535 510 462 550 620 460 535 532 565 607 575 675 582 557 582 660 507 550 530 535 457 542 525 527 592 667 672 705 752 600 605 547 352 582 557 450 402 397 400 462 587 500 550 472 432 500 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=193 KeyCode=BVE5_m DATA:Tree 865 1235 1280 1010 800 685 675 740 855 975 520 950 1185 975 595 1015 1147 1060 1027 845 842 577 652 797 812 722 1130 1540 1425 1790 1517 1605 1610 1682 1770 1477 1720 1572 1985 1937 1617 1595 1570 1992 2132 2192 2985 1847 2120 2100 2012 2015 1970 1680 1767 1335 1375 1475 1315 1352 1647 1800 1405 1460 1622 1540 1410 1645 1667 1350 1330 1447 1475 1622 1887 1487 1310 1160 1542 1247 987 1057 980 1200 957 1017 907 1070 1057 932 827 885 880 1040 920 922 1072 927 890 805 797 787 907 817 917 920 957 927 1130 1115 967 1170 1260 1200 1177 1317 1027 667 930 787 700 1057 692 637 550 790 675 840 752 725 535 742 807 707 597 705 697 460 380 515 420 372 452 410 305 285 292 240 277 260 272 317 210 262 270 277 302 255 297 325 350 295 315 272 250 287 257 240 282 295 292 332 385 370 387 452 380 427 412 240 415 360 275 277 172 177 265 240 177 177 195 172 122 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=277 KeyCode=BVE6_m DATA:Tree 595 615 620 565 530 435 430 655 730 560 645 680 985 1235 1220 1110 1180 1540 1520 1090 1120 1417 1212 1190 1057 847 1082 980 902 610 780 707 737 645 777 602 827 1145 1045 1200 1082 1017 1225 1207 1197 1520 1180 1305 1207 992 875 1857 2160 1467 1672 1302 1062 1237 1042 1162 937 940 1200 1272 1367 1250 1565 1175 1390 1497 1215 1357 1880 1500 1517 1685 1630 1405 1275 1452 1117 1020 1532 1322 1495 1527 1535 1427 1145 902 970 800 690 585 700 827 940 610 592 595 670 435 472 272 227 175 125 165 150 162 202 462 497 547 680 727 865 927 865 802 707 857 730 722 605 647 627 985 1247 1382 1657 1355 1367 1187 715 805 727 800 822 520 532 417 422 357 460 657 600 635 672 587 772 962 827 795 745 735 810 802 902 757 650 627 722 667 452 510 550 485 412 442 512 577 547 552 412 562 475 610 457 417 440 387 305 327 375 297 352 315 342 415 402 520 547 530 495 487 680 482 532 630 492 305 375 385 357 515 340 420 347 522 505 482 562 517 300 437 505 557 535 615 577 400 342 490 527 500 635 612 455 437 460 372 325 370 450 517 432 607 540 765 780 677 715 527 577 530 622 485 432 412 407 345 407 360 337 355 387 357 395 415 307 350 240 210 352 315 255 387 270 372 495 502 457 515 417 442 505 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=206 KeyCode=BVE7_m DATA:Tree 1140 1157 1167 975 872 1025 947 1132 980 835 947 1210 1005 967 1140 1190 950 1022 677 1087 892 882 1002 970 1097 1385 1080 720 925 1057 750 560 555 597 240 117 195 277 297 560 977 1012 1137 750 815 1027 1125 1070 877 822 877 1165 1297 857 1212 1115 1235 1510 1432 1465 1182 1620 1242 1212 1360 1302 1260 1187 1042 925 777 852 750 875 1210 1072 1115 1185 1300 1407 1757 1777 1472 1272 1322 1492 1767 1605 1760 1737 1412 1787 1987 1370 1430 1732 1665 1495 1807 1637 1830 1787 1482 1227 1237 1100 1357 1162 1030 1090 1037 1047 1042 1085 840 932 710 802 780 832 992 940 887 830 920 1225 1127 1075 1002 732 522 652 627 587 835 670 637 555 810 670 682 580 660 475 652 515 595 450 570 642 422 507 570 717 540 747 700 670 622 675 727 677 650 725 830 572 777 695 757 837 732 772 745 740 520 667 570 545 595 537 447 557 525 625 680 572 660 577 637 607 610 442 322 472 512 622 517 472 442 460 552 472 667 525 537 585 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=30 KeyCode=BVE8_m DATA:Tree 817 962 1180 1457 1455 1595 1390 1387 1462 1785 1762 1627 1842 1715 1405 1712 1270 1880 1845 1705 1515 1592 1955 2442 2425 2252 2755 2407 2562 2940 HEADER: DateEnd=1988 Length=263 KeyCode=BVE9_m DATA:Tree 1325 1200 1040 1295 1395 1360 1050 1615 1635 1555 1620 1365 1420 1415 1150 925 1235 1017 1125 1285 1235 1200 1570 1632 1222 1362 1370 1555 1790 1737 1897 1927 1707 1685 1837 1792 1520 2162 2115 1660 1870 2005 1577 1655 1400 1657 1547 1667 1817 1987 1952 1627 2002 1527 1825 2037 1637 2122 2590 1870 1512 1712 1820 1675 1565 1732 1245 1257 1730 1507 1770 1742 1640 1330 1477 1390 1637 1540 1237 1092 1092 1265 1037 720 695 812 945 612 717 527 542 502 442 602 537 432 725 1022 1010 937 1020 1060 1005 992 872 785 827 932 997 1117 732 847 785 1037 1172 1127 1162 880 942 967 957 1327 1135 1025 912 747 742 890 915 895 1135 1160 862 887 862 780 962 992 932 932 932 877 915 1170 1102 905 820 842 992 867 692 642 570 645 570 590 642 685 772 750 622 697 612 735 792 642 710 802 777 695 607 527 565 470 515 505 552 570 537 610 452 507 592 467 445 492 477 337 415 412 375 415 350 420 340 475 400 325 337 375 270 422 430 437 462 542 435 380 290 417 397 375 565 452 352 320 265 405 385 312 377 470 467 572 547 712 630 492 532 465 432 440 635 490 562 512 587 442 535 497 472 497 552 550 730 672 525 480 462 360 542 507 575 580 480 442 672 795 797 760 720 742 835 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1992 Length=395 KeyCode=gzw1_m DATA:Tree 3090 3295 3310 2655 2215 2470 2660 2485 1890 1655 1805 1840 1942 2272 2270 2070 2125 1890 1775 1637 1657 1680 1810 1750 1862 1455 1575 1460 1722 2067 1710 2110 1200 1395 1615 1802 2032 2025 2370 2485 2442 1660 2405 1885 1880 1700 1475 1402 1757 1340 1262 1125 935 1022 850 1122 927 865 912 852 690 915 1060 1375 1180 1085 1252 1150 1152 1112 1000 1032 950 1040 972 960 822 530 1245 737 560 957 832 812 1010 1052 1010 942 1197 1447 1330 1125 1150 1050 835 700 902 592 712 807 692 545 797 730 675 572 515 472 590 677 490 542 707 705 705 800 795 892 667 480 630 670 635 405 675 607 785 735 880 885 850 772 880 797 732 785 827 602 700 975 897 1130 910 692 1027 827 652 605 745 540 722 545 497 420 587 590 680 795 812 900 735 677 672 540 577 730 760 477 507 605 322 367 362 355 300 325 382 525 472 412 430 382 435 482 550 457 542 445 615 627 640 397 502 480 347 405 267 335 357 382 447 380 422 365 480 415 470 375 450 487 345 272 220 395 327 222 225 242 202 265 160 197 125 147 305 210 150 187 155 277 207 145 200 207 185 265 262 275 217 257 265 252 185 190 230 115 262 222 235 237 225 297 255 182 232 207 172 177 162 127 142 125 160 187 190 197 182 227 222 217 270 230 262 167 170 227 287 245 230 262 202 237 187 210 210 250 162 227 157 177 230 212 140 167 177 197 140 150 182 132 120 132 197 170 165 190 197 220 150 247 255 190 220 192 245 185 237 285 205 320 202 292 270 315 317 260 330 342 257 440 340 350 335 437 350 240 220 362 245 367 282 220 185 205 195 180 212 262 232 267 212 215 290 270 250 232 262 255 237 305 360 330 310 297 330 287 242 272 295 342 322 322 385 345 292 380 257 265 415 400 290 347 357 365 582 572 480 440 475 510 475 385 525 567 615 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1992 Length=401 KeyCode=gzw2_m DATA:Tree 1475 1545 1410 1145 1255 1500 1655 1440 1425 1325 1635 1885 1760 1790 1355 1370 2015 1775 1470 1905 1905 2015 2425 1915 1680 1710 1550 1555 2095 2240 2085 1740 1925 1880 1885 2035 1515 1380 1020 1290 1565 1200 1345 1582 1682 1695 1907 1345 1620 1557 1800 1792 1687 1315 1397 975 1100 1210 1120 1000 852 937 812 880 1080 1212 1055 1022 1140 1527 1365 1202 1495 1192 1527 1225 1192 1185 1092 1282 1060 1125 1070 785 1122 985 875 1085 1025 982 962 1035 1005 975 890 1040 915 777 780 847 865 757 865 757 685 720 597 507 580 628 573 558 520 418 516 470 511 500 685 645 630 603 875 790 616 445 531 672 622 390 537 557 1010 915 1110 1037 1162 825 960 1000 867 1090 880 757 802 1055 1100 1182 795 617 815 667 702 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540 600 530 435 430 437 210 440 352 347 395 377 262 425 462 357 275 367 402 362 290 282 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1990 Length=226 KeyCode=ma44_m DATA:Tree 945 1140 1240 980 1230 985 1190 1380 1195 1395 1435 1615 1650 1830 1870 2650 2115 2405 2775 2305 1520 1645 1905 1870 2015 1885 2045 1850 2025 1995 1965 2505 2435 2155 1810 1795 1810 1690 1875 1535 1370 1305 1715 1745 1325 1210 1755 1855 1035 1120 765 770 515 325 650 840 920 1725 1895 1705 1605 1895 2395 2150 2120 1975 1800 1525 1760 2000 1900 1600 1715 975 1300 1280 1315 1740 1235 1695 1600 1690 1775 1680 1685 1555 1280 1420 1250 1190 1270 1420 1315 1285 1290 1050 1425 1315 1220 1235 1285 1375 1585 1550 1680 1560 1420 1580 1475 1620 1770 1475 1505 1085 1285 1000 805 555 565 705 840 610 865 555 820 560 530 600 615 715 580 600 515 475 400 385 470 580 600 655 610 435 580 560 460 475 620 630 405 595 620 510 485 550 575 500 955 730 970 1060 960 705 850 775 810 770 855 800 635 550 640 615 600 945 760 510 660 600 665 610 505 705 810 650 905 925 875 1090 875 795 930 760 740 900 920 805 695 820 600 590 775 835 1025 870 1085 1025 1005 855 850 790 500 800 660 675 790 645 515 670 810 730 660 850 900 745 475 385 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1990 Length=315 KeyCode=ma45_m DATA:Tree 1647 1365 1337 1362 1115 1365 1232 1627 1777 1662 1907 2147 1520 1682 1742 1905 1670 1375 1617 1410 1317 1500 1432 1180 1702 1440 1510 1670 1735 1855 1857 1435 1092 1745 2155 1755 1860 1952 1660 1558 1471 891 1075 1287 1612 1285 1642 1802 1605 1710 2277 2062 2085 1910 2015 1370 1720 1800 1362 1335 1740 1697 1890 1787 1725 1117 1702 1210 1370 1367 1612 1402 1542 1547 1445 1527 1340 1382 1605 1312 1402 1722 1115 1357 1380 860 660 732 755 590 832 1080 930 1102 1130 1315 1395 1480 1252 1080 887 890 1307 922 1065 1302 1110 1007 1027 835 912 967 940 832 732 835 625 575 677 657 727 780 775 625 687 685 790 737 630 677 677 925 775 515 567 650 657 370 537 292 377 310 247 297 405 332 557 617 535 590 632 597 510 510 460 557 535 662 720 822 497 612 457 605 570 610 640 450 630 602 712 742 645 602 610 520 662 607 422 480 517 520 427 472 467 535 552 555 545 430 540 605 557 655 642 592 557 497 562 575 460 387 260 420 392 485 295 300 300 352 292 267 172 327 225 225 257 212 255 197 192 177 127 167 135 182 257 270 287 287 202 260 277 280 342 412 392 285 432 375 450 380 340 310 325 462 350 417 427 395 300 427 415 342 267 310 185 205 182 257 245 255 402 250 180 212 215 252 205 210 205 250 217 355 315 247 250 195 140 125 117 137 210 180 180 177 212 155 165 167 190 235 220 255 282 247 250 247 247 137 232 167 197 225 155 130 222 182 165 165 170 212 187 150 107 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=350 KeyCode=mis-101m DATA:Tree 809 837 702 489 670 953 899 994 1029 817 758 803 545 1667 1704 813 785 611 541 464 358 287 344 594 534 592 454 327 454 422 378 573 528 482 672 960 822 593 851 734 670 584 642 582 575 646 729 548 518 518 612 390 400 361 433 494 369 382 481 564 620 699 733 794 650 682 704 760 625 446 542 352 412 429 477 426 498 521 550 556 548 664 692 557 484 674 547 592 708 655 672 787 793 601 652 477 410 391 470 437 642 876 596 560 514 535 531 507 435 451 383 503 473 549 509 589 621 460 404 491 399 373 374 390 357 406 374 397 394 342 495 448 528 547 447 484 635 495 478 622 662 549 517 556 450 395 442 391 503 439 569 443 439 510 469 533 499 469 393 419 340 278 342 401 329 284 272 219 151 147 111 134 105 102 166 149 133 111 110 109 110 114 117 100 117 121 175 165 111 142 141 178 164 204 314 225 313 299 271 274 228 244 212 169 210 250 219 213 244 246 203 235 285 349 400 441 407 287 293 383 332 307 275 232 260 380 403 430 416 310 386 362 384 401 495 428 373 245 196 322 360 311 263 318 304 286 267 272 249 228 152 178 195 176 219 215 366 327 213 293 265 193 196 213 195 161 187 207 240 233 168 243 238 202 160 136 185 163 134 242 205 214 222 253 260 161 159 251 177 241 257 203 223 194 149 125 162 181 152 202 190 264 285 255 257 192 183 276 189 171 161 150 135 158 178 160 178 180 180 193 168 156 189 125 120 129 111 115 151 121 119 175 133 210 424 319 309 399 417 411 344 249 199 285 255 304 326 448 314 396 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=457 KeyCode=mis-102m DATA:Tree 438 328 326 428 413 438 558 263 172 195 185 307 374 361 412 340 379 263 413 549 273 554 710 457 471 458 611 655 652 619 600 218 226 343 398 343 223 313 338 288 279 402 398 509 513 522 79 68 87 119 82 109 120 84 39 75 82 69 113 128 131 143 154 249 369 360 355 396 354 306 484 387 366 255 181 412 530 474 427 406 357 444 328 311 252 237 338 292 143 120 211 238 218 307 333 296 406 398 296 596 417 416 466 459 392 394 336 391 337 249 275 262 257 271 430 521 424 257 297 338 539 400 453 563 482 549 473 602 446 404 615 405 655 563 216 297 267 272 307 463 437 790 637 494 583 581 534 570 511 454 470 407 436 509 358 440 501 399 201 96 119 160 267 221 227 298 283 259 247 339 433 441 308 307 216 198 149 115 107 168 160 237 212 306 395 441 295 329 558 688 525 498 603 638 655 730 650 732 698 519 605 597 373 303 346 462 564 661 772 505 523 612 585 659 575 482 443 383 569 548 604 438 585 730 510 483 499 352 407 424 328 240 326 327 372 397 376 602 507 770 647 504 593 808 518 558 726 769 889 758 896 698 839 922 728 785 832 820 673 717 581 670 467 416 344 389 461 338 290 389 502 532 313 224 141 113 139 113 102 107 75 157 164 131 155 130 195 192 252 278 239 211 269 442 491 231 264 235 245 315 598 693 453 561 488 589 622 456 506 515 324 397 373 332 291 460 379 246 270 323 442 415 369 328 301 241 357 525 545 465 486 542 726 722 748 513 441 541 501 631 609 795 824 875 815 701 713 597 710 673 577 510 461 425 336 333 251 189 319 300 274 267 397 544 398 351 492 659 447 466 457 456 341 382 480 342 513 358 391 375 390 393 345 454 445 384 655 593 562 518 793 817 547 538 543 504 760 681 664 652 585 439 522 663 501 436 674 615 942 900 823 984 719 810 963 816 668 828 628 563 488 533 443 488 454 517 526 624 624 650 609 489 514 453 349 535 483 552 625 563 549 880 714 647 721 694 681 829 630 702 723 582 755 955 870 677 694 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=193 KeyCode=mis-103b DATA:Tree 1474 1146 1326 940 921 799 735 636 456 479 461 382 396 727 808 638 380 465 642 1229 823 688 853 899 862 771 679 637 593 841 1251 719 1053 667 810 699 742 755 813 1401 940 1320 1292 717 700 667 485 585 706 572 550 505 581 452 575 707 2535 2267 1559 1349 1054 818 980 1023 1083 1143 911 1012 1013 923 939 1002 817 762 839 893 966 1127 941 812 698 590 681 708 881 960 734 898 782 869 855 732 564 727 841 725 604 555 661 921 603 457 603 708 515 451 580 585 420 521 479 337 428 346 387 337 424 411 462 559 468 372 574 531 593 572 694 726 698 584 670 779 717 773 770 611 445 397 377 464 457 444 563 556 734 1055 1092 1040 763 677 529 536 497 419 444 377 392 412 423 449 403 419 576 546 727 766 769 559 507 816 644 830 569 428 403 420 405 500 475 496 490 550 428 467 337 378 610 545 573 634 619 382 428 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=186 KeyCode=mis-105 DATA:Tree 1356 1216 1807 1443 1198 1106 1235 1084 1674 1875 1210 1510 1370 1234 1486 1051 1023 1183 1527 1393 389 462 635 635 327 371 280 370 522 489 695 403 600 468 430 511 298 295 356 204 329 318 266 311 328 314 188 330 308 317 411 475 597 538 715 813 570 767 844 737 775 841 773 983 929 757 760 901 852 875 917 841 868 975 777 1034 951 1182 931 627 753 726 829 668 638 613 677 698 580 683 646 906 1320 1093 1021 1000 1125 980 938 1070 924 713 760 857 848 1096 907 708 580 762 604 677 744 823 685 913 759 571 468 461 424 350 313 382 499 722 893 1014 861 819 720 904 919 674 674 852 865 1360 1505 1531 1696 1394 1678 1733 1397 1032 1227 1133 904 732 892 1010 1107 722 750 757 725 779 676 749 696 631 642 403 687 532 557 568 637 652 978 859 896 960 898 907 947 905 792 785 777 899 965 1062 864 895 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1993 Length=420 KeyCode=MIS12 DATA:Tree 440 640 475 380 435 480 405 420 480 640 745 685 490 340 190 245 320 350 305 260 320 330 260 320 260 210 290 325 240 290 415 430 255 340 365 225 385 395 340 440 415 450 385 415 420 475 420 400 420 360 455 475 330 415 290 320 375 410 310 215 210 320 320 380 450 195 385 270 320 390 335 335 305 235 330 365 280 320 335 405 285 350 310 315 310 355 280 340 235 260 340 320 330 375 235 340 235 215 245 290 195 170 255 140 195 225 230 210 210 240 175 210 240 250 290 175 310 295 270 225 255 225 235 230 210 165 150 180 120 155 200 160 215 250 155 220 270 285 343 280 278 323 283 225 228 180 245 175 263 235 318 268 365 340 390 328 408 380 333 398 420 340 398 470 438 480 423 308 405 270 278 328 348 268 363 325 218 253 315 343 333 400 360 350 273 285 313 355 268 348 318 298 333 405 420 380 378 333 340 360 365 428 383 260 413 393 523 513 375 445 568 383 423 458 480 490 460 448 365 308 388 333 448 425 425 368 348 435 560 348 368 310 335 380 330 275 213 330 298 203 255 205 163 135 83 133 123 78 163 158 123 148 155 223 223 170 213 223 228 270 305 365 228 258 220 283 300 373 330 255 280 280 340 408 260 313 295 190 263 330 248 268 273 345 268 300 425 370 395 443 428 425 388 483 535 580 645 390 378 415 545 540 478 490 358 473 388 448 455 510 480 393 383 478 378 440 398 405 388 405 395 303 400 193 203 320 285 313 298 360 418 400 288 403 523 525 468 485 498 370 490 355 313 428 288 420 320 583 638 495 505 463 373 643 518 470 500 650 615 573 585 750 613 578 500 570 573 465 480 773 683 575 710 865 768 850 865 845 893 693 830 658 610 603 738 838 863 783 830 568 778 730 788 898 725 820 933 888 673 610 578 370 693 790 670 593 593 548 913 863 788 600 745 745 983 683 690 840 778 1075 HEADER: DateEnd=1993 Length=80 KeyCode=MIS13 DATA:Tree 1055 1180 755 1305 1070 1190 1000 1740 1795 1910 1900 1775 1740 2315 2515 2850 2715 3085 3055 2820 2555 2970 3025 3440 3740 3495 2970 3355 3310 3870 4305 3540 4635 5170 3475 4350 4830 4230 4370 3590 3245 3120 2670 2180 2735 2445 2250 2150 2925 2505 2925 2330 2200 2575 2705 3605 3740 3495 2750 2435 1870 1340 2135 2225 2120 1640 1620 1405 2050 1920 1995 2160 2225 1910 2710 1840 1670 2535 2625 2220 HEADER: DateEnd=1993 Length=188 KeyCode=MIS2 DATA:Tree 915 1210 1145 1030 1085 1380 968 983 815 603 335 283 118 245 198 163 295 473 560 553 428 585 460 893 963 755 640 680 845 885 698 793 595 748 1023 1133 1478 745 875 883 1003 1045 610 773 675 345 425 640 635 800 785 720 640 710 743 930 903 680 573 465 503 713 783 863 865 1085 940 1143 1093 1195 1145 1343 1203 1208 978 903 883 753 678 695 778 945 845 1058 913 793 910 770 763 773 773 683 630 823 818 868 780 1093 1440 1180 1108 1218 1238 1078 1238 1178 905 670 723 805 683 895 645 690 518 668 795 950 1180 950 735 1030 1118 1478 1335 1583 1430 1008 1013 1180 1090 1128 1223 1208 1050 813 818 910 758 655 725 1005 903 1288 1620 1530 1978 1643 1545 1525 1473 1163 1838 1413 1095 1155 1218 1210 1518 1098 968 958 1023 1405 1625 1390 1128 1068 883 645 988 935 800 955 1053 980 1268 1420 1273 1333 965 878 1023 900 810 805 723 948 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1993 Length=240 KeyCode=MIS3 DATA:Tree 1110 1255 1205 1415 840 1040 690 830 670 1305 1030 790 1210 1085 735 975 1130 845 790 1105 970 920 825 595 1065 1120 1440 1255 1480 2015 2625 1515 1075 1465 1670 1505 1350 1360 1035 1570 1970 1470 2060 2225 2200 1515 1445 1410 1935 1655 1045 975 935 1225 1130 575 685 1090 965 550 635 425 275 290 170 175 195 190 330 575 610 890 650 850 625 565 575 450 395 440 485 670 245 340 175 265 300 325 450 210 270 265 280 360 305 375 300 175 285 250 240 210 285 255 200 250 445 515 595 515 515 415 400 385 450 510 475 290 395 570 630 570 455 465 440 450 390 405 620 500 475 440 510 645 625 670 600 415 420 455 440 320 280 260 225 300 255 295 435 825 1360 1115 1125 1265 1600 1525 1325 1345 1195 610 645 815 665 925 590 575 540 680 795 830 1200 1650 1160 1885 1925 1800 1330 1760 1490 990 1110 1135 1415 1330 1490 1160 1005 1005 1140 1880 1605 1390 1635 2555 1845 2220 2185 1975 2455 1850 1785 1465 1255 1035 1620 1285 1055 1070 1270 1225 1625 1050 1025 1285 1450 1610 1520 1400 1335 1035 1170 700 1335 1090 955 1045 1305 1230 1715 1775 1490 1530 1330 1140 1415 1095 1005 1145 1210 1305 HEADER: DateEnd=1991 Length=234 KeyCode=MIS6 DATA:Tree 860 1685 2030 1910 1605 2215 1495 1215 1450 1660 1345 1590 1515 1510 1195 1355 1410 1615 1440 1480 2030 1510 1810 1235 1805 1750 2560 1130 1425 1835 2065 2155 1870 1950 1325 1640 1850 1365 1955 1630 1400 1490 1380 1350 1945 1790 1605 1515 1225 1850 1725 1170 950 1165 1245 865 840 600 735 800 675 850 920 605 945 1395 1135 1380 1455 1430 1345 1565 1490 980 715 850 1325 1685 1435 1715 1015 1280 1350 1540 2490 1320 1630 1625 1855 1600 1155 1375 1130 735 980 1110 1145 755 815 1090 775 865 1130 1245 885 1520 1355 1488 1425 1860 1718 1958 2035 1808 1840 1770 1713 1620 1568 1908 1475 1713 1400 1360 1445 1488 1160 1613 1918 1675 1640 1388 1303 1223 1303 1183 1135 970 1020 838 1035 915 973 1013 1345 1338 1188 1270 1015 993 1150 1115 915 803 1578 808 698 1055 498 768 550 990 855 1053 888 720 400 750 903 1183 1128 1193 1265 790 708 1050 1180 978 943 890 895 850 758 890 1063 900 815 1200 853 1213 898 655 620 438 570 640 645 568 930 675 748 695 828 710 713 738 760 900 913 1013 1083 1195 980 928 773 595 1123 1003 873 908 1050 913 1453 1455 1290 1560 1373 1558 2450 1643 1508 1350 1415 1528 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=124 KeyCode=mis-90 DATA:Tree 1593 1169 1221 1917 1521 1367 1459 1435 1122 1084 931 813 814 1244 907 1171 1193 848 512 705 777 742 692 791 1269 917 1226 1246 1460 1729 1778 1270 1238 1861 1945 1750 1499 1778 1522 954 1645 1696 1106 1037 1018 1080 559 718 1019 1405 1475 1140 879 1199 1238 1305 1229 1365 1506 1205 1173 1372 1597 1791 1760 1570 1458 1394 1227 1234 1263 1071 615 374 470 661 856 920 1042 781 837 649 596 625 860 938 1105 998 1444 773 1211 1285 1276 1301 1032 1259 1165 1312 998 849 908 437 927 826 703 670 726 860 1274 1596 1437 1350 1344 1340 1606 1231 1309 1614 2177 1796 2174 2139 1627 1243 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=372 KeyCode=mis-96 DATA:Tree 1324 1691 1290 1666 1451 1494 1730 1444 1321 1740 1505 1647 1589 1087 1746 1325 1412 1362 1238 1273 1123 1027 1079 1113 996 759 736 972 730 830 962 1058 870 875 856 977 761 648 856 1019 1111 998 810 812 683 824 826 802 607 448 710 439 508 629 590 737 616 716 621 456 638 722 750 635 635 633 547 549 604 572 504 372 304 237 282 265 391 451 398 274 363 360 390 319 401 484 412 364 457 420 319 236 210 198 314 191 285 197 398 449 503 387 503 568 527 454 323 416 380 330 418 416 382 487 415 355 374 229 251 248 290 275 304 304 255 245 295 363 329 305 331 289 272 248 234 298 234 279 302 266 276 301 195 212 184 185 176 161 194 259 271 187 261 211 350 322 349 374 430 264 260 314 344 234 238 260 212 214 261 261 292 285 322 275 252 341 314 297 235 235 222 255 239 217 261 348 335 209 215 121 100 140 104 86 69 65 155 203 105 72 123 174 163 136 136 133 159 202 191 204 159 153 176 218 205 220 230 167 218 190 200 235 203 237 208 165 184 167 157 159 178 241 182 254 253 259 266 324 255 245 328 388 455 482 376 359 329 349 454 512 536 512 423 435 369 361 399 364 313 345 313 387 308 350 353 301 332 321 279 279 295 248 223 271 296 289 271 349 475 380 269 399 504 345 392 462 479 351 365 254 235 372 258 288 256 331 356 448 436 276 261 372 356 391 434 520 464 403 439 454 428 437 433 385 318 338 288 383 458 430 443 547 500 562 636 760 596 495 432 456 415 440 400 381 498 392 347 381 408 434 504 564 545 439 441 519 411 421 326 382 524 442 361 446 463 444 632 549 547 538 538 479 480 530 471 535 534 627 651 733 522 550 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=232 KeyCode=mis-98 DATA:Tree 773 791 768 766 638 695 728 876 793 646 646 616 554 486 517 688 782 884 840 842 728 1130 1212 908 884 917 836 770 787 553 859 860 1067 821 746 716 1233 967 751 659 805 705 652 695 809 799 828 766 709 525 290 184 136 163 181 308 475 586 528 812 573 902 722 678 628 361 462 565 845 837 321 622 545 573 693 916 875 595 727 784 864 790 599 795 771 513 668 701 673 622 826 871 698 716 859 1081 1044 1359 1127 1071 957 1081 1116 1457 1264 1207 1201 1274 1322 1307 1088 1177 1088 1249 1327 1185 1395 1288 1119 1359 1308 1527 1298 1806 1390 1177 1127 1177 1336 1126 1101 958 1017 861 952 857 968 1002 1915 1607 1256 1452 1670 1367 1270 1363 1132 769 838 946 886 1229 838 932 787 1189 1066 1020 1024 942 669 913 1039 1111 1110 1429 1441 1174 1219 1262 1321 1437 1462 1369 1246 1138 1022 1036 802 920 1065 1193 1036 1411 1258 1328 1371 1171 1330 1331 1082 780 1065 891 789 945 1082 1026 1143 881 949 892 909 980 922 887 764 738 582 490 687 577 638 654 566 568 888 968 964 1109 992 795 947 718 786 855 829 1086 1226 1420 1009 978 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1997 Length=209 KeyCode=mis-99 DATA:Tree 1240 1157 1272 964 818 948 684 890 885 834 710 704 723 768 777 729 678 785 1053 895 640 814 1237 1339 967 942 512 450 568 435 379 266 271 285 366 311 406 341 399 309 406 343 227 274 331 337 405 287 248 193 222 280 425 590 450 590 558 607 784 620 722 709 439 553 482 476 408 499 511 384 315 361 478 524 547 493 377 391 388 410 595 484 517 565 719 727 724 534 546 664 613 632 546 663 603 641 657 580 800 620 844 730 673 719 679 806 805 655 503 534 441 458 401 422 540 907 706 544 628 677 535 571 697 631 420 559 639 687 1048 850 834 586 852 957 1081 1211 1273 943 1084 1050 1178 960 1013 1004 839 755 764 733 852 825 807 744 663 628 676 638 499 539 665 544 729 768 815 908 846 1032 1106 950 904 1311 970 750 755 950 806 906 671 633 543 515 703 714 612 513 533 426 346 484 386 580 534 570 539 832 826 687 691 572 530 718 472 453 411 456 574 651 619 435 436 0 HEADER: DateEnd=1993 Length=377 KeyCode=MIS9 DATA:Tree 330 345 265 240 280 185 185 240 250 255 320 110 230 230 240 210 195 225 245 210 320 305 215 365 315 245 340 270 300 280 180 235 265 175 180 225 255 195 245 210 250 230 230 190 275 205 190 305 235 220 290 210 255 230 250 260 290 205 170 250 140 185 195 220 245 210 290 185 210 215 215 255 190 275 220 235 285 300 190 240 230 175 130 170 200 310 275 320 235 235 330 190 230 315 305 340 260 280 320 280 225 180 160 185 135 168 180 273 250 240 220 295 265 303 298 240 333 300 255 298 370 358 500 368 280 483 285 365 370 395 318 490 485 368 473 450 455 460 463 408 453 388 475 508 490 383 500 515 398 465 533 418 443 365 425 425 410 423 565 490 388 535 365 468 495 458 453 573 378 363 468 518 458 443 468 385 368 435 383 465 453 410 430 338 385 430 440 338 350 303 378 360 290 305 373 383 208 270 143 133 150 138 118 113 73 103 143 148 150 133 145 173 170 168 158 150 163 208 228 188 163 170 258 203 170 230 145 225 285 278 303 275 278 248 178 190 200 193 148 220 190 135 208 215 190 200 248 230 170 225 173 215 270 265 233 268 320 323 275 275 245 220 283 300 315 230 243 278 235 208 285 233 295 235 255 293 288 278 218 273 220 190 228 260 263 305 278 290 328 238 353 408 268 248 253 270 203 228 260 203 275 205 218 218 325 328 238 330 260 205 298 335 355 360 358 313 343 333 410 363 320 383 355 320 310 288 340 425 360 395 458 348 428 470 483 445 368 430 330 320 343 373 393 395 348 420 400 428 413 398 413 383 375 448 420 425 350 355 285 450 498 455 448 475 438 678 673 623 560 570 663 803 630 568 688 825 948 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=2002 Length=404 KeyCode=sm10_m DATA:Tree 202 279 367 305 404 504 539 498 583 659 613 804 708 698 545 572 515 906 926 850 931 865 774 788 661 693 646 515 542 482 631 510 434 439 366 384 473 562 495 647 365 613 514 463 506 350 323 372 324 340 251 188 232 198 244 207 287 302 340 322 414 350 496 472 451 535 487 452 395 304 376 329 448 399 427 430 213 448 320 342 375 291 410 426 465 569 586 635 738 678 624 648 667 688 628 662 603 565 528 456 360 474 423 493 416 464 538 546 561 501 539 623 501 396 406 306 352 313 215 213 239 362 228 369 325 489 460 499 552 590 557 576 599 526 563 575 522 654 781 649 796 681 574 729 440 473 463 625 533 696 579 428 546 601 739 805 867 686 758 602 695 673 750 610 681 735 483 520 689 509 506 582 626 539 515 605 807 776 642 886 631 980 865 918 910 897 717 634 524 669 679 682 641 561 556 615 556 620 545 712 749 735 849 796 818 826 681 771 1098 1141 764 717 861 869 546 602 457 262 404 113 204 149 20 76 216 151 249 188 236 312 163 128 109 136 188 168 134 107 154 118 158 173 154 174 113 178 225 199 229 173 290 246 187 189 173 130 209 107 118 123 213 231 243 229 204 209 199 216 229 283 374 318 186 196 190 311 316 393 324 351 267 344 415 385 478 423 428 273 365 414 475 328 398 314 333 348 388 278 269 229 240 243 294 314 337 388 441 209 308 315 226 293 269 321 239 283 306 206 302 145 207 183 150 161 133 182 185 143 196 228 281 237 348 272 310 279 355 242 280 365 233 244 242 212 311 286 314 378 448 381 407 420 376 363 364 256 268 291 309 426 321 332 246 290 298 275 324 267 414 439 500 464 472 330 460 448 347 444 386 288 376 259 330 467 350 367 389 385 502 435 357 406 409 462 571 483 477 380 341 408 403 383 416 483 0 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=2002 Length=218 KeyCode=sm13_m DATA:Tree 1619 1509 1418 1539 1462 1008 1398 899 1291 1369 1252 1278 1406 1223 1209 1215 1001 1028 1327 880 826 810 963 766 466 635 760 645 315 394 263 234 256 194 183 232 156 445 452 430 477 415 323 373 423 409 326 246 359 469 537 291 324 331 436 419 371 484 290 473 438 475 582 545 456 479 419 489 437 375 368 424 431 450 386 430 535 656 692 746 751 779 840 847 863 775 547 556 535 821 887 898 807 592 800 860 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550 430 140 340 220 200 310 430 410 440 270 420 550 370 500 380 350 510 620 540 610 610 900 570 690 790 470 950 550 580 590 1130 780 620 570 510 1050 640 650 470 700 490 510 690 840 1210 860 660 700 730 670 900 680 770 770 830 710 520 770 770 800 420 370 510 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=972 Length=150 KeyCode=eba33_m DATA:Tree 1436 1913 1736 1540 1601 1928 1363 2126 2409 1393 1975 1892 2127 2988 3111 2730 2962 2879 2031 2531 2118 2379 1864 1909 2227 2423 1977 1714 1528 1470 1783 1710 1289 1856 2170 2733 2246 2712 2380 1733 1948 2392 2067 1998 2980 2397 2598 2699 2083 2419 2172 2206 2496 2058 1568 2142 1773 1941 2061 1738 2153 1693 2024 2336 2346 2174 2027 2057 1898 2032 1557 1575 1492 1094 1417 1081 1129 1292 1418 1371 1261 1231 974 812 609 874 856 642 874 1055 1015 1174 961 1126 1139 944 1157 704 764 978 854 1008 856 720 883 815 1110 733 640 731 628 717 604 708 762 737 517 588 822 403 448 244 480 406 463 621 738 564 782 798 677 511 719 930 720 764 643 896 672 560 772 810 789 779 639 686 724 783 673 574 HEADER: DateEnd=977 Length=110 KeyCode=ugb1_m DATA:Tree 1669 1942 1792 1585 2129 2437 2408 2682 1945 1483 1761 2643 2643 2429 2343 2319 2197 2651 2407 2572 2232 2322 2268 2385 2215 1871 1746 1550 913 1340 1314 1578 1825 2169 1974 1985 1596 1683 1883 1301 1623 1576 1321 1409 1731 1756 2049 1954 2574 2349 1797 1724 1202 1101 1030 1074 917 732 834 776 1374 1260 1364 1181 1428 1331 1363 1025 1399 1450 1227 908 998 1512 1125 948 532 749 769 1067 1731 1707 1097 1414 1219 1292 749 680 656 770 703 891 1476 1155 655 923 1252 1486 1365 1021 1214 996 1346 950 813 1028 907 941 919 909 HEADER: DateEnd=977 Length=109 KeyCode=zar6_m DATA:Tree 641 477 400 498 677 1121 1771 2579 1964 1732 1960 2302 2619 2834 3240 2807 3151 3497 3020 3156 2911 2520 2543 2684 2626 2433 2376 2007 2306 1645 1943 2282 2341 2090 2289 1823 2053 2007 1842 2150 2256 1419 1364 1443 1547 1738 1481 1639 1456 1448 1705 1493 1416 1403 1431 1147 1103 1338 1309 1547 1425 1094 836 1115 1198 1165 1056 1076 926 972 740 752 885 952 824 598 682 673 876 1155 1115 1259 1501 1228 1335 1081 871 976 811 711 927 1056 1013 872 677 871 943 1032 728 600 594 1004 606 466 652 635 515 361 308 0 HEADER: DateEnd=979 Length=115 KeyCode=eba1_km DATA:Tree 1844 1935 2419 2108 2923 2472 2006 2441 2531 2190 2043 1478 1085 1515 1419 1557 1511 1567 1580 1281 1380 1342 1312 1288 1369 1363 1295 1532 1069 1205 1141 826 1224 941 886 1053 1095 1015 926 779 396 219 218 345 287 152 250 256 385 268 152 545 456 353 353 214 218 352 385 395 468 504 545 531 514 434 260 394 244 162 241 405 535 311 184 188 553 142 271 136 337 163 238 452 601 537 451 947 353 293 662 819 740 665 481 936 569 350 606 885 709 754 528 444 738 791 785 496 665 683 705 658 689 860 825 0 0 0 0 0 HEADER: DateEnd=987 Length=261 KeyCode=tah30_km DATA:Tree 594 894 787 701 712 767 741 893 868 790 942 955 964 1063 1124 1075 922 965 1438 1275 1186 1086 1010 1072 712 587 516 443 470 513 518 765 773 601 700 684 700 713 701 702 714 691 675 589 608 453 397 362 451 298 253 245 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288 8 3 5 277 8 4 4 260 8 3 5 297 8 6 2 319 7 5 2 344 7 5 2 309 7 3 4 288 7 3 4 336 7 5 2 318 7 4 3 309 7 3 4 298 7 3 4 304 7 5 2 260 6 1 5 219 6 2 4 248 6 4 2 250 6 3 3 244 6 4 2 227 6 2 4 215 6 1 5 255 6 4 2 250 6 3 3 275 6 2 4 185 4 2 2 207 4 2 1 171 4 1 3 179 4 3 1 204 3 1 2 183 3 1 2 183 3 2 1 243 3 3 0 184 3 0 3 149 3 1 2 158 3 1 2 199 3 3 0 213 3 2 1 201 3 1 2 212 3 1 2 166 3 0 3 259 3 3 0 176 2 1 1 165 2 0 2 148 2 1 1 165 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  2294. 2005-03-30 10:50:50 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, oyvind.paasche@bjerknes.uib.no, guiot@cerege.fr, kazuyo@cerege.fr, Valerie.Masson@cea.fr, juerg.beer@eawag.ch, kazuyo@cerege.fr date: Wed, 30 Mar 2005 10:50:50 +0200 from: Edouard BARD subject: Re: IMPRINT Task 1.5 to: Eystein Jansen Dear Eystein, Many thanks for the clarification. Having myself been coordinator of EU proposals, I know how difficult the last moments are when many texts and budget tables have to be merged into something coherent for the evaluation. The new EU framework makes this problem even more accute with these gigantic proposals gathering a significant part of the european scientists working in our field. Anyway, it was logical from our perspective to mention this minor overlook that can be fixed at a later stage. We all hope that IMPRINT will be accepted and will benefit to all our teams. Cheers, Edouard >Dear Edouard and Kazuyo, > >Thanks for notifying. There are some glitches in >the document, not unexpected. There are no >problems to change details like this in the >negotiation phase. Given that we are elected, we >expect funding to be less than applied, thus all >tasks and all costings need to be revisited and >justified again (as the system works this way), >and we will have the opportunity to identify both >redundancies, priorities as well as things we >missed in the proposal. The process for doing so >will be via the task and WP leaders. > >Cheers, >Eystein > ---------------------------------------------- Edouard BARD CEREGE, UMR-6635, Europole de l'Arbois BP80 13545 Aix-en-Provence cdx 4 Ph +33 4 42 97 15 61, Fax +33 4 42 97 15 95, email bard@cerege.fr Chaire d'évolution du climat et de l'océan du Collège de France http://www.college-de-france.fr/site/evo_cli/ http://www.cerege.fr/tracorga/BARD/bardF.html ---------------------------------------------- 3031. 2005-04-04 10:22:51 ______________________________________________________ cc: lkeigwin@whoi.edu, r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk, Cathy.Johnson@defra.gsi.gov.uk, haugan@gfi.uib.no, rwood@meto.gov.uk, j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk, p.j.valdes@bristol.ac.uk, marotzke@dkrz.de, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, valborg@mercury.soc.soton.ac.uk date: Mon, 4 Apr 2005 10:22:51 +0100 from: Meric Srokosz subject: Arctic IPY Announcement of Opportunity to: sxj@soc.soton.ac.uk, mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk, shb@soc.soton.ac.uk, a.j.willmott@keele.ac.uk, ewwo@bas.ac.uk, ric@liv.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk, ericg@met.rdg.ac.uk, Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk, a.watson@uea.ac.uk, hlb@soc.soton.ac.uk, pc@soc.soton.ac.uk, ncw@soc.soton.ac.uk, j.holmes@ucl.ac.uk, j.bamber@bristol.ac.uk, C.Hughes@pol.ac.uk, i.j.fairchild@bham.ac.uk, c.pain@imperial.ac.uk, J.Lowe@rhul.ac.uk, davidm@met.reading.ac.uk, rowan@met.reading.ac.uk, Mark.Chapman@uea.ac.uk, wena@st-andrews.ac.uk, j.m.gregory@reading.ac.uk, kh@mail.nerc-essc.ac.uk, he101@esc.cam.ac.uk, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Sandy.Harrison@bristol.ac.uk, grant.bigg@sheffield.ac.uk Dear all - please see http://www.nerc.ac.uk/funding/polarsci/arctic_ipy_ao.shtml for the AO for Arctic IPY. This is looking for consortium bids to do studies in the Arctic and provides a potential opportunity for RAPID-related studies to be extended to the northern N. Atlantic. As those involved in RAPID I would like to encourage you to think about putting in a bid to the Arctic IPY AO that could build on the science that has been funded under RAPID. If you need advice then I am happy to try to help. Of course, Bob Dickson (a member of the RAPID Steering Committee) is the person with particular interest in this aspect of RAPID science and better able to provide advice and information on how bids could best be integrated with existing activities (such as ASOF). Meric -- Dr. Meric Srokosz, Room 254/43,Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC) Empress Dock, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK Tel:+44-(0)23-80596414 (direct line); Fax: +44-(0)23-80596400 e-mail: mas@soc.soton.ac.uk or M.Srokosz@soc.soton.ac.uk http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/SAT/pers/mas.html Science Coordinator NERC Rapid Climate Change Programme http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/ ***************note that from 1st May 2005******************** SOC will become National Oceanography Centre, Southampton *************************************************************** 3817. 2005-04-04 19:02:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 04 Apr 2005 19:02:25 +0200 (MET DST) from: Eduardo Zorita subject: Re: ECHO-G data control to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk (Tim Osborn) Tim, There indeed several ECHO-G "controls". Cubasch group has made several of them and the MPI also. But they normalyy show a much large drift than our f77 control, and this drift seems to depend on the initial conditions. they have been trying to understand what is happening, as far as I know. Anyhow, if you wanted the control from which the initla conditions for ERIK were taken, it is this one. Sorry for the possible overlap between Hugues papers and your work. Actually, I have been marginally involved in that paper and Hugues and me even discussed on his putting my name on it, as I felt my contribution had not been very large. But we have to try to coordinate our work still more closely, altough it is becoming more difficult, since there is increasing request for colaboration from several directions. I guess this is good, but sometimes it is difficult to keep an overview. For you to know, Hughes and me are planning to launch an "equivalent SRES A2" solar-only run, with solar forcing matching the diagnosed greenhouse gas forcing, to check if the sensitivities and feedbacks look roughly the same. eduardo 2014. 2005-04-04 23:08:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Øyvind Paasche , Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 4 Apr 2005 23:08:47 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: last millennium - responding to Susan to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hi Keith and Tim - sorry for the delay in responding. I think the issues you raise are worth discussing, but we can do that in Beijing, and hopefully with Susan. She is keen on the idea, and my gut says it's a good idea to include such "crowley" plots somewhere - at least in the appendix, for example. But, let's talk in person. In the meantime, we really need your comments on the ZOD - including what you feel has to be done with your section, but also with the others. We have comments from most others, and are expecting the external review comments soon, so please send yours ASAP so they can be included in this important stage. Thanks! Best, peck >Jonathan > >I am slowly getting teaching duties behind me and certainly turning >my attention back to IPCC. I have spoken wit Phil re the >observations chapter and we have discussed the need to show pre 20th >instrumental data in our chapter in a manner that is relevant to the >comparison with more recent instrumental (ie N.Hemisphere or global >mean) records , and the possibility of showing ensembles of regional >temperature records , and composites in a way that possibly bares on >the discussions with Susan. We are still considering this question , >but certainly there needs to be some "frozen grid" curves as flagged >in the ZOD. >I am not sure of the context of the discussion you are having with >Susan , or the logic for what Tom Crowley is trying to do with the >ensemble curves of various palaeo-series. > >I flagged clearly at the outset that I would like to do some >regional comparisons of various data/reconstructions . This required >more time and input than was achievable for the ZOD. I still think >this is desirable though. Similarly , there is far too little in the >current version about moisture variability in the last 2000 years >and too little on the S.Hemisphere in general. It was always clear >that there would be much more discussion on the scaling issue and >specific reference to work that will explore the effect of regional, >seasonal and methodological differences in aggregation and scaling >(including timescale dependent effects). The problem is that the >work on much of this is not yet done or published. It should be >immediately apparent that our greatest enemy , acting against a >thorough exposition of these issues , is the lack of sufficient >allotted space. > >Now , returning to the Crowley Figures , I do not see how not >showing an integrated and "appropriately" scaled record helps to >clarify the picture on the precedence of recent warming in any clear >way. On the contrary , it merely confuses the issue by omitting to >tackle the knotty problem of expressing an underlying mean >large-scale signal , that emerges from the regional noise only >through aggregation of demonstrably appropriate palaeo-records . >This aggregation should allow quantification (with appropriate >uncertainty) of the extent of warming and provide clearly defined >target for comparison with model simulations. > >If it thought appropriate , yes we can show individual records , but >just normalising them over a common base ignores the different >sensitivities and regional distribution issues . I am not convinced >this selective presentation clarifies anything. I would be happy >for this discussion to opened to the rest of the author team. > >best wishes > >Keith > > At 16:28 15/03/2005, you wrote: >>Hi Keith - I can't remember when you said you'd be able to get back >>into the IPCC fray, but I hope it is soon. Please let me and >>Eystein know what you think regarding the email I just cc'd to you. >>We should respond to Susan asap. Hope things are going well. >>Thanks, Peck >>-- >>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >>Mail and Fedex Address: >> >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>University of Arizona >>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 5105. 2005-04-05 07:56:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Apr 5 07:56:57 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Douglass and Knox, GRL, March 2005 to: Tom Wigley Tom, That's what Myles says as well - you can't reduce the uncertainty range, especially the upper limit. Myles gets the lower limit of at least 1-1.5C. I'm off after today until April 15. See you later in the month. Cheers Phil At 15:41 04/04/2005, you wrote: Thanx Phil. I will see Myles at the end of the month before coming up to Norwich. By the way, my paper says one CAN get sensitivity from volcanoes, but cannot narrow the uncertainty range. Tom. =========== Phil Jones wrote: Tom, I gave Myles the crap paper last week when we met at Duke for an IDAG meeting. He has a paper coming out soon in GRL saying much the same as you - volcanoes can't be used to estimate the climate sensitivity. He was unaware of Douglass and Knox. I think Myles paper has someone else as the first author. Myles is aware of your paper. He refers to it and made a comment to getting the same sort of answer in his presentation. I am saying all this as Myles went onto Sydney, Australia and is there for much of this week. I think we've all signed off on the NRC review. You should get something in the next 2-3 weeks so I'm told. I couldn't seem to stop Lindzen referring to the crap paper nor his own in response to some comments in Chapter 5. With your paper coming up and the one Myles is involved with you'll have enough to not bother answering. Cheers Phil At 14:52 04/04/2005, you wrote: I am writing a comment on this, with Ben and Caspar Ammann. It is total crap. It is a pain to do, but important to have a response on the record. A number of us suspect that one of the editors of GRL is deliberately choosing 'sympathetic' referees for papers like this (another e.g. is the recent M&M paper criticizing the hockey stick). Myles -- did I send you my volcano paper (soon in JGR)? Tom. =================== Myles Allen wrote: Dear Phil and Tom, Thanks for the copy of Douglass and Knox, Phil. Am I right that answer to the "exercise to the reader spotting the obvious mistake" is: 1) Failure to take into account uncertainty in the baseline climate (or, indeed, the removed ENSO and solar signals) in fitting the simple model. If everything is shifted down by 0.2K in figure 3, you could get a much higher peak and relaxation time. I'm reasonably confident about this one, because (as Dick points out) fitting things is what I do... I'm less confident about 2) Confusion between TOA longwave anomalies, which would presumably be affected by the cold stratospheric aerosol cloud, and tropopause longwave anomalies, which are relevant to the calculation of lambda. This is most evident in paragraph [26], where they suggest Delta(T)/Delta(LW)~lambda, with Delta(LW) being the perturbation TOA longwave anomaly observed by ERBE. Can one really ignore the impact of volcanic aerosols on longwave fluxes? 3) Odder still, equation (9) seems to suggest that the forcing due to Pinatubo is simply the longwave anomaly, with no mention of shortwave at all: although, perhaps by chance, they seem to get a forcing-to-AOD relationship that is consistent with Hansen's. Are you doing anything about this, Tom? Does it matter? Will anyone care? Myles Send instant messages to your online friends [1]http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2267. 2005-04-05 13:07:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 5 Apr 2005 13:07:12 +0100 from: "Rob Wilson" subject: Re: Emailing: ECHO-G and solar weighting to: , "Tim Osborn" Hi Tim, thanks for the reply I was always under the impression that, in general, solar changes controlled long term changes in climate and volcanic events caused short term cooling. I am surprised when you say that volcanic forcing dominates the models - this seems at odds to papers by Lean and Rind etc. The 1257/59 volcanic event has an obvious effect in the model - yet the recovery is quick - i.e. no effect on the long term trend of the model output. I guess 'clusters' of volcanic events could cause a longer term response of the climate system. How are the relative weightings of the external forcing estimated in the models? Although I agree that GHGs are important in the 19th/20th century (especially since the 1970s), if the weighting of solar forcing was stronger in the models, surely this would diminish the significance of GHGs. Jeez - I sound like a sceptic - this is not my intension. I guess, ultimately, what troubles me is that of the myriad of NH recons out there now, they generally show a MWP that is NOT as warm as the late 20th century. I have no trouble with this - however, the solar activity of the MWP (excluding the Oort minimum) is also generally not as high as the recent period. I know correlation does not mean causation, but it seems to me that by weighting the solar irradiance more strongly in the models, then much of the 19th to mid 20th century warming can be explained from the sun alone. again, am I being overtly simplistic? Rob ----- Original Message ----- From: [1]Tim Osborn To: [2]Rob Wilson ; [3]K.briffa@uea.ac.uk Sent: Tuesday, April 05, 2005 12:01 PM Subject: Re: Emailing: ECHO-G and solar weighting Rob - I don't think either run is heavily influenced by the solar forcing. The apparent lack of agreement between the solar record and NATURAL is because the volcanic forcing dominates over the solar (for example, giving the cooling trend during the final 3 decades). The ALL run appears to fit better with the solar record, but the 1700-present greenhouse gas forcing is more than double the 1700-present solar forcing and hence the warming trend over that period in the model is driven mainly by GHGs. I think Irina Fast showed some solar-only runs for 1750-present in Reading and they didn't show temperature trends anywhere near so large as in the ALL run. Cheers, Tim At 11:06 05/04/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: >Dear Tim and Keith, >I was wondering if you could clarify the relative inputs of the ECHO-G >model for me. > >the attached figure compares the ALL and NATURAL ECHO-G outputs (annual >extra-tropical land temperatures) with the spliced Beryllium record from >the Crowley 2000 paper. > >I do not understand why the NATURAL run, which is weighted heavily towards >the solar input (if I understand the situation correctly), does not show >more of an increase since the early 1700s. > >The Beryllium record qualitatively compares well with the ALL forcing run. > >Perhaps I am missing something here, but from this comparison, it seems to >be that most of the long term variability in the ALL run can be explained >solely by the Beryllium record. > >I am not sure if this particular Be record was used for ECHO-G, but if we >believe the Be record (probably debatable!), then it seems to me that the >sun's activity can explain most of the NH temperature variability. CO2 and >other greenhouse gases would therefore have a weaker influence. > >I am sure I have simplified that the situation horribly, BUT have I missed >something? > >hope you can help >Rob Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: [4]t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 4391. 2005-04-05 13:57:16 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Apr 5 13:57:16 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: pretty good piece in today's "Washington Times" to: "Michael E. Mann" Mike, Yes I'll be in Bern in June. I won't get there till the Monday pm though. Keith is going with me tomorrow so I'll let him know you're pleased with Ch 6. Ch 3 needs a lot of work still, but we have broken the back of it. Lots to do on the details and getting better and clearer figures. I am expecting many more comments on the FOD (first-order draft) after we submit that in the late summer. We still have 40 sets of comments from our CAs and 5-6 formal friendly reviews. I hope once all these are in and then the draft reduced in size with better figures and more concise text we'll be mostly there. Responding to the zillions of comments will then be much easier with that draft than the current one. Cheers Phil At 13:35 05/04/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, Thanks for touching base. Things are getting busy, w/ the move to Penn State just around the corner now. I'm also trying to finalize my reviewer comments on the IPCC chapter 6. Keith and company did a great job, and my comments are mostly minor and (hopefully) constructive. Your chapter looked very good by the way! Be prepared for an onslaught of comments from the contrarians! They've probably hired a staff of hundreds to type away--the online comment form makes this very easy. The Sci. Am piece was good too. I agree w/ you about Bill R.'s stuff--I think Bill is a good scientist, and he's a personal friend too. But I remain a bit skeptical. At least he's putting this out in a constructive fashion however... Regarding Science comment--yeah, we wanted to revise significantly to incorporate results from our J. Climate letter. W/out those results, the comment was much weaker. Science told us that this would be too significant a change, but said that we could opt instead for them to do an "editor's choice" piece on our J. Climate paper. Sounded like a good deal to me. Please don't tell the GKSS folks about any of this. I'd prefer the element of surprise. Still awaiting word from Nature on the status of the Moberg comment. Will keep you posted. talk to you later, Mike p.s. see you in Bern in June, right?? At 07:07 AM 4/5/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike, This was a good one as stories go. Someone finally got to the other reconstructions. Just also seen the March Scientific American. Saw your story earlier, but hadn't seen Ruddiman's bit. Not sure I believe it. Tim got an email from Eduardo today. He says you've withdrawn your comment to Science on von Storch et al. Is this true? Do you reckon the paper with Caspar and others in J. Climate is a better way of responding? By the way you've pissed off GKSS by withdrawing. Is the Nature comment on Moberg et al. still awaiting a response? Off from tomorrow from April 6-15. Should be in email contact - at least from April 10. Cheers Phil At 17:27 04/04/2005, you wrote: [1]http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050401-080237-5213r.htm ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3722. 2005-04-05 15:06:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 05 Apr 2005 15:06:53 -0700 from: Katarina Kivel subject: review of paper for Climatic Change to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith Briffa, We have had trouble prying a sufficient number of reviews for the paper by Macias Fauria, M., Andreu, L., Bosch, O., Camarero, J.J., Gutiérrez, entitled Increasing Aridity is Enhancing Silver (Abies alba Mill.) Water Stress in Its South-Western Distribution Limit. In view of your interest in the topic, Steve Schneider has asked me to contact you to see if you would be willing to review this paper for Climatic Change within the next few weeks. Thank you very much for your consideration. We look forward to hearing from you as soon as possible. Regards, Katarina Kivel Katarina Kivel Assistant Editor, CLIMATIC CHANGE Department of Biological Sciences Stanford University Stanford, California 94305-5020 TEL 650-725-6508 FAX 650-725-4387 EMAIL kivel@stanford.edu 1170. 2005-04-05 16:50:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Apr 5 16:50:27 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Progress Report] + additional thought to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Thanks for the reviews I didn't have. The WG1 AR4 as a whole was my reading of the email from Martin Manning about planning for LA2 in Beijing (his email of March 29). This was in the penultimate paragraph of a long email. We are down for a presentation (20 minutes) on Day 3 at LA2. I've not looked at the other chapters, except for a glance at Chs 6 and 9. Given all the other things we have to do between now and LA2, this seems a bridge too far. I picked this email up last week, but didn't take this Day 3 presentation in until the weekend. We have until April 11 to respond. The Climate Sensitivity Workshop was a more focused issue as far as I'm concerned. I still have difficulty remembering which number each chapter is except for 3, 6 and 9 ! I see I missed a bit in this email. WG1 will send compiled comments from their reviewers by April 11, if all reviewers get their comments in by April 8. I also meant to add in the email earlier today that the NRC review process appeared to go OK from my perspective. I had only to review Ch 5 and the Exec Summary. Although the latter will require some work, Ch 5 came off lightly compared to Chapters 1 and 6. Chapter 6 was a mess and none of the group got on with Pielke and I can understand why. Back to our ZOD, reducing the size is difficult, but it is something we will have to come to grips with. Working through the LAs is the way, but they will need strong suggestions. I hope the formal reviews have specifics. If we get the collated comments from WGI by April 11, then we should likely send these out. We should also send back the CA comments somehow, but we don't have time to collate them. I only know that Chris Folland's is for the whole thing and maybe Adrian's is. The rest might be very specific so could just be sent for each chapter lead? I've put the few that came in emails into doc files. We do need this lot to come with suggestions. So maybe send the WGI material when we get it, then the CA comments when we've had some time to think. Assigning people to downsize sections is a good idea - at least for 3.5-3.7. We need to think hard about 3.4 and 3.3 as the'll need some clear guidance from us. Off home in 20 minutes. Next login likely on Thursday unless I can get on at an airport tomorrow. Cheers Phil and also in a lesser sense to 2-4. The authors have to deal with Fu et al explicitly instead of saying it is controversial. I didn't succeed in getting some of Dick Lindzen's comments removed. Chapter 6 was a complete mess. It did seem odd that our review will get published - why, when the final report will be quite different. At 15:22 05/04/2005, you wrote: Phil I am attaching the 2 contributions from Warren, and also the Robertson and Fogt/Bromwich one. I did not understand your addendum: WG1 AR4 as whole? I must say I have not looked at any other chapters. It seems premature at this point. Our LAs are supposed to help on that. Last night I went over the hurricane sections of the 2004 BAMS article. It has a lot of useful material: on all the regions for the first time. I will follow up with Levinson to see if we can get a composite figure and a global view. Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, I meant to add - any thoughts about the view of the WG1 AR4 as a whole. Pity we don't get more time to think about this. We could have been given this for LA3 or LA4, but have it for May. Cheers Phil Kevin, Checking Lisa's list I think I have all except for the following: 1. I got some comments from Steve Warren, but don't have the earlier ones from March 17 on section 3.4.1 . 2. I've not got Peter Robertson's. 3. Also not got Fogt and Bromwich. I'm off tomorrow for a 3 day meeting of an EU project in Bologna and then on next week for AOPC in Geneva (April 11-15). I get back late on April 15 and am then here (except for the odd day or two in London) until I leave for Beijing on May 7. I need to get my visa during these three weeks ! I arrive in Beijing on May 8 in the morning. I have my visa for China at least. So from comparing schedules we have some time over the next 4 weeks. I'm away next week (and this) and you're away the week of April 25-29. I did begin reading the first few reviews but realised it was pointless, so stopped after Adrian's long one. I have them all on my lap top apart from the few above. I hope to go through some over the next 10 days whilst away. I did talk to Chris Folland about his review (briefly) and spoke to David Karoly (last week at Duke) and Jim Salinger (by email) about their formal (friendly reviews) which have gone directly to WGI. These were more extensive than many of the others and all said to me it was a good start, but 30-40% too long. All said major reductions needed in 3.5-3.7 and also if possible in 3.4. Apart from Chris' though I've not seen the other two. I've not looked at the pdfs of the chapter nor any others though. I think reductions are also necessary in 3.3 as well. Maybe this will get said. The only sections I think are near to their final size are 3.2 and 3.8. 3.1 is OK and 3.9 OK for size, not content. Then there is the summary ! Easier said than done. I don't see who else will do the heavy editing required. But then I am not sure if I try whether I also take out the good stuff: I am not familiar enough with the literature. So, what to do in the next few weeks and what to tell the LAs. Here are a few thoughts. We need to get things to them at least a week to 10 days in advance, I feel. One thing would be to get them to review the chapter ! Given my schedule this week: out all day wednesday and half of thursday, I plan to look at the collated material starting about friday, which is also when you should have it. After going thru it to see what it is like, I think we should try to get it to the LAs soon thereafter, but only if we can make sensible suggestions on procedures. 1. We need better figures in many cases. Here we could both independently go through these to - decide those we really want and suggest mods (likely to most, I think). - decide on additional ones and ones we can drop I think we'll need to be pretty specific here - down to colours, line styles. If we come up with a joint list, we can combine and then have a session on these at Beijing and/or send out joint suggestions ahead to the LAs. The NRC report has a few good ones in a common style re 3.4. Agree this is important. I would like to see more of things like latitude time sections to get away a bit from global means and also linear trends. Those could also be done regionally. 2. Reductions in size of the sections. Problem here is I don't reckon we can afford to let some of the LAs do this. Jim Renwick should be OK for this, PanMao and Roxana will need some help. I hope the 'overall' reviews are specific here as this would be useful to us and the LAs. The timetable seems to give us only 4 hours on May 10, but we didn't flag up too much so won't be involved in many of the clusters on the 11th, so potentially another 4.5 hours there. I guess we'll have to leave the 12th for planning who'll do what. We can try this one as homework before the meeting: assign some people to downsize certain sections. 3. Missing sections that get flagged up in the reviews. Impossible to say till we get the 'official' ones. April 22 was the date we should be getting these. 4. New stuff that has come along since Trieste. I think we're up top speed with most of this. The BAMS 2004 report will be useful. I've just got a copy of this from Dave Easterling, but not had a chance to go through it as I only got it yesterday. 5. The Summary and section 3.9. We should set aside some time for this, but I reckon this is best done by us beforehand. This is a possibility for May 9 in Beijing. 6. The boxes and the CQs. So, as we can't really see revised figures in Beijing, we should try and make all the suggestions ahead of time and just go through these briefly and decide who'll do what and who'll do the contacting when we're there. Most of our time should go on the revisions. Do we have some section or part of that looks good (and had few comments) with regard to style, content etc that we could show the LAs? We will need to be very specific on what needs redcuing. Do we want to try and stick to the page numbers for each section that we came up with - this would be a good starting point. Most of the boxes need some work, but not as much as much of the text. Finally, there is a lunch meeting on the CQs, so I reckon we should wait for that before deciding anything. This email got a bit disjointed - it's been 90 minutes since I started, but I kept on getting interrupted, but all my thoughts are there - but not always in the right place. I have to prepare for the 10 days away. I'll have email contact at WMO, and probably in Bologna, but not entirely confident on that. Cheers Phil PS My daughter's wedding is set for Sept10. I'll likely be totally out of it from September 7-12. I think this is after we have to produce the FOD. I only have 2 weeks away - one in June and one in July during JJA. Hay that's a long way off. The key thing is the FOD is due in August, so the intense period is the summer; you'll be home free by September. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 797. 2005-04-08 14:29:52 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith Briffa" date: Fri, 08 Apr 2005 14:29:52 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Emailing: ECHO-G and solar weighting to: "Rob Wilson" At 10:36 08/04/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: >1. I have to admit that I still find it strange that the natural forcing >ECHO-G run does not show higher values in the recent period when compared >to the 1100-1225 period. The higher modelled temperatures through this >earlier period are obviously forced by solar input. The fact that the >natural run does not show equivalently high (or higher) values in the >recent period means that the relative weighting of the forcings must have >changed over time. This seems completely illogical to me, but in my >ignorance, I think I must go with what the model shows. However, I think >some sort of mention of this is warranted in the paper - or am I being too >simplistic about all this. I believe the early warmth in the ECHO-G run is due, at least in part, to the initial conditions being too warm (nearer to present-day than pre-industrial) and hence would have been cooler if the model had started with more realistic conditions. At least partly an artefact of the experimental design rather than the real world. I tried to show that at the Reading meeting with comparisons with the MAGICC simulations. >2. As you and Keith will be included on the coral paper (will not hear >back from Sandy until the 20th) we can discuss this issue further later as >this is relevant for that paper also. I am troubled about the variance of >the modelled data being higher than the actual instrumental data. For >example, the temperature amplitude (defined as the difference between the >warmest and coldest decade) in the ECHO-G model of NH temperatures is 2.08 >(see table below). However, the variance of the model is much higher than >the instrumental data over their common period. If I scale the modelled >data to the same mean/variance of the instrumental data (in this case Land >only 20-90N), then the amplitude reduces to 1.27. This value sits nicely >between my RCS reconstruction and Jan's curve when they have also been >scaled to the same instrumental data-set. This analysis suggests that >amplitude of the Moberg series is possibly too high. Also, ECHO-G has no cooling effect in 20th century due to tropospheric sulphate aerosols and hence warms too much. Hence amplitude too great. Tim >Coldest > >Warmest > >Amplitude > >Wilson STD > >1813-1822 (-0.74) > >1938-1947 (0.20) > >0.94 > >Wilson RCS > >1600-1609 (-0.97) > >1937-1946 (0.17) > >1.14 > >Esper02 > >1345-1354 (-1.18) > >1950-1959 (0.15) > >1.34 > >Briffa00 > >1813-1822 (-0.80) > >1951-1960 (0.10) > >0.90 > >Mann99 > >1458-1467 (-0.68) > >1957-1966 (0.10) > >0.79 > >Jones98 > >1693-1702 (-0.77) > >1929-1938 (0.06) > >0.83 > >Moberg05 > >1576-1585 (-1.33) > >1104-1113 (0.23) > >1.56 > >ECHO-G > >1689-1698 (-1.97) > >1953-1962 (0.11) > >2.08 > >ECHO-G [scl] > >1689-1698 (-1.09) > >1953-1962 (0.18) > >1.27 > >Does the higher variance in the ECHO-G model imply that it is TOO sensitive? > >comments are much appreciated > >regards >Rob > > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Tim Osborn >To: Rob Wilson >Cc: Keith Briffa >Sent: Wednesday, April 06, 2005 10:22 AM >Subject: Re: Emailing: ECHO-G and solar weighting > >At 13:07 05/04/2005, you wrote: > >I was always under the impression that, in general, solar changes > >controlled long term changes in climate and volcanic events caused short > >term cooling. > >... > >I guess 'clusters' of volcanic events could cause a longer term response > >of the climate system. > >Clustering of volcanic events does indeed enable them to have longer term >influences. But there probably is a changeover in which is dominant as you >go to longer time scales. But where that changeover happens depends on how >strong the forcings are, which is particularly uncertain for solar (and >fairly uncertain for volcanic). The strength of the forcings is determined >by how the modellers designed their experiments - they specify the forcing >time series in advance. For the ones they chose to use in ECHO-G (based on >Crowley's earlier work, though not identical) the volcanic still looks to >be dominant on time scales up to 30 years and probably of similar >importance to solar on time scales 30-100 years (these are my guesses from >eyeballing some figures of smoothed forcings, but could be quantified by >looking at spectra etc.). Above 100 years, then solar is probably bigger >than volcanoes in ECHO-G, but not overwhelmingly so. > > >How are the relative weightings of the external forcing estimated in the > >models? > >Although I agree that GHGs are important in the 19th/20th century > >(especially since the 1970s), if the weighting of solar forcing was > >stronger in the models, surely this would diminish the significance of GHGs. > >The forcings for ECHO-G are selected in advance by (1) choosing the >strength and time series of solar irradiance variability; (2) choosing the >strength and time series of volcanic aerosol variability and converting >this to a surrogate time series of solar irradiance reductions, which are >then added to (1); and (3) choosing the time series of greenhouse gas >concentrations. > >Thus (1) and (2) prescribe the forcings to the model - there is no role for >the model itself to determine the strength of those forcings. The model >does however determine the strength of the forcing induced by the GHGs, but >this is fairly accurately known as are the histories of the GHG >concentrations (the combined uncertainty in history of GHGs and their >conversion to radiative forcing is given by the IPCC TAR as just >+-10%). Thus the ECHO-G model's only role in determining the relative >weightings of the forcings is in how it converts (3) to a forcing and this >is very well known. Hence the climate model doesn't really determine the >relative weightings - they are determined by whoever designed the >experiment and selected the inputs. > >If (1) had been chosen with stronger changes, ECHO-G would have responded >by making last 150 years warming stronger - the GHG-induced warming would >still be just as great, but would have extra solar-induced warming on >top. Thus GHG-warming would not be reduced. This might give a poorer fit >to the observed record, implying either that the solar forcing should be >reduced (since the GHG can't be as it's so well known) or that the climate >model is too sensitive (quite possible). So, in the latter respect, your >point could be correct because a lower sensitivity would then downplay the >response (including the GHG-induced warming) until it fitted the >observations once more. > >However, that recent paper by Foukal et al. suggests the evidence for >long-term fluctuations of solar irradiance is biased and perhaps there >isn't any! Also, the people doing detection & attribution of 20th century >climate changes reckon that the particular timing of the solar and GHG >forcings during the 20th century (i.e. the interdecadal time series >structure, not just the increasing trend) and the slightly different >patterns of climate response to the two forcings can be used to distinguish >between the two and they find the observed warming time series and patterns >match better to that expected from the GHG forcing than the solar forcing - >and if I understand it correctly, this result doesn't depend on the >magnitude of the forcings, just the time series structure. > >Sorry to go on. Hope some of this is useful/interesting. > >Cheers > >Tim > >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 76. 2005-04-11 07:33:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Edward Cook date: Mon, 11 Apr 2005 07:33:06 -0400 from: Edward Cook subject: Re: North American SC-PDSI to: Gerard van der Schrier Hi Gerard, Thanks for the EOT source code. I will have a go at it and let you know if I encounter any problems with it. It looks like it won't be a problem to deal with. Interesting plot from the Dai data as well. Aside from what appears to be a calibration period around months 1000-1400, the remainder of the mins and maxs look like they have been mowed to keep them from getting too extreme as you suggest. I am afraid that the Dai data are looking more and more unreliable. At some point, this will need to be brought up to Dai. Of course, Trenberth will go nuts because his name is on the publications associated with the data. Below is an html version of an article written by Ned Guttman that discusses, among other things, the modified PDSI that does not require backtracking. Some of the equations and math terms did not translate from the paper to html, which is why there are occasional gaps in the rendering. A more accessible description of the modified PDSI can be found at http://nadss.unl.edu/PDSIReport/pdsi/, which is a fine review report by Nathan Wells, author of the SC-PDSI. Go to "The Weighted PDSI" to get a detailed description of the modified PDSI used by NOAA for operational purposes (see below). I hope this helps. Cheers, Ed CourierDETERMINATION OF DROUGHT FREQUENCIES FOR THE NATIONAL DROUGHT ATLASTimes    CourierNathaniel B. GuttmanTimes  CourierNational Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NCTimes    Courier 1.     INTRODUCTIONTimes  Courier        The meaning of the word "drought", as used in the National Drought Atlas, is the condition of widespread and negative economic, social, and environmental impacts resulting from less water than expected.  The water shortfall can come from a lack of precipitation, a deficiency in water storage and distribution systems, or inefficient use of water.  "Water management" refers to the planned intervention of man in the hydrologic cycle of rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration in order to enhance water uses and reduce water hazards.  Pertaining to drought, it refers to reducing the adverse impacts of drought, to planning activities preceding a drought, and to operational activities during a drought.Times          Courier   One indicator of drought that is also used for water management is the Palmer Drought Severity Index.  This index, which was developed over 25 years ago (Palmer, 1965), relates the normal amount of precipitation that should have occurred in an area to that which actually did occur. ("Normal" is used in the sense that the moisture supply satisfied the average or climatically expected percentage of the absolute moisture requirements of the area.)  The index is relatively independent of time and space.  It is a representation of what Palmer called meteorological drought, i.e., an evaluation of meteorological anomalies characterized by prolonged and abnormal moisture deficiencies.    Times         Courier   This article describes the Palmer Drought Index and the data that were used to compute the Index for the National Drought Atlas.  It discusses the methodologies, assumptions and limitations used to prepare drought frequencies.  Times  Courier 2.     PALMER INDEX Times       Courier   The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is based on a calculated water balance using methods devised by Thornthwaite (Thorthwaite and Mather, 1955).  For month i, the weighted moisture anomaly index, , is Times  Courierwhere k is a weighting factor that allows for spatial comparison; P, PE, PR, PRO, and PL are the actual precipitation, computed potential evapotranspiration, potential recharge (net gain in soil moisture), potential runoff, and potential loss of soil moisture, respectively, for the month;  and  are, respectively, the coefficients of evapotranspiration (mean evapotranspiration divided by the mean potential evapotranspiration), recharge (mean recharge divided by the mean potential recharge, runoff (mean runoff divided by mean potential runoff), and loss (mean loss divided by the potential runoff).Times         CourierA drought index, , for month i is computed on an incremental basis such that each successive month is evaluated in terms of its contribution to the severity of drought.  A recursive relationship linking one month to the next is defined asTimes           CourierComputation of the PDSI requires a tracking of the beginning, establishment and ending of wet and dry spells.  In practice, three values of  are computed simultaneously each month.  The first, a wetness index , is the PDSI for a wet spell that might become established.  The second, a dryness index , is the PDSI for a dry spell that might become established.  The third, , is the PDSI for any wet or dry spell that has definitely become established, i.e., .  It is also necessary to determine the percent of moisture required to end a spell that is actually received, where the end of spell is defined as .Times         CourierIf a spell has become established and the percent of moisture needed to end the spell is zero, then the PDSI is equal to . This condition also means that  and  are equal to zero.  If a wet spell is established but dry months occur so that the percent of moisture needed to end the spell is between 0 and 100, then  is computed along with .  If the percentage does not return to zero and reaches 100 in month m, then the PDSI for months i through m are the  values because the wet spell has definitely ended and the dry spell has begun.  If the percentage does return to zero in month m, then the PDSI for months i through m  are the  values because the established wet spell has not ended.  Similar computations are made for established dry spells using  and . Once an established spell has ended, the value of  equals zero.Times         CourierIf a spell is not established,  and  are computed simultaneously until the month i in which either or . At this time a new spell has become established and the procedure described in the preceding paragraph is followed.  The PDSI values for the months i backward to t are  if a wet spell has become established or  if a dry spell has become established.  At the point backwards in time when the appropriate index (wet or dry) is zero, the PDSI becomes the other index (dry or wet) value until it reaches zero.Times         CourierTable 1, taken from Palmer (1965), arbitrarily relates an index value to a qualitative measure of wetness or dryness.  Since  Palmer's original intent was to describe drought, he postulated that an index value of -4 would spell economic disaster in any region in which the established economy is significantly dependent upon the weather for its moisture supply.  Values between 0 and -4 represent conditions that are scaled between normal and economic disaster.  The meaning of positive index values is a mirror image of the meaning of the negative values.  It is based on Palmer's assumption that the abnormal moisture departures which lead to drought would lead to wet periods if they were positive instead of negative.Times         CourierThe PDSI is a retrospective index because current values depend on future conditions.  It is therefore useful as a climatological indicator but not as a "real-time" index for making operational decisions.  The necessity for an index that could be used operationally led to a variation of the PDSI known as the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index or PHDI (Karl, 1986).  The PHDI avoids the backtracking problem, and can therefore be used in "real-time", by selecting  as the index value whenever the percent of moisture needed to end an established spell is between 0 and 100 and by selecting the nonzero  or  during the onset of a wet or dry spell.  The PDSI and the PHDI are identical during an established spell. They differ, however, during the onset and ending of a spell.  The PHDI during the months that a spell is incipient may change sign from month to month depending on the magnitude of the current month's departure from normal conditions (i.e., ); the PDSI values are those for the wet (dry) index for all the incipient months of a wet (dry) spell that does become established.  At the end of a spell, the sign of the PDSI values will reverse to signify the end sooner than with the PHDI values.Times         Courier   The tendency of the PHDI to switch signs during incipient conditions, as well as the slow response of the PHDI at the end of a spell, led to development of the modified PDSI as a better representation of existing conditions for real-time, operational use (Heddinghaus and Sabol, 1991).  During near normal or incipient conditions when  , the modified PDSI is equal to the  or  with the largest absolute value.  During an established spell, the modified PDSI is equal to the PDSI.  During the end of an established spell, the modified PDSI is equal to the weighted average of  and  if the spell is dry or  and  if the spell is wet.  The weighting factors are [1-(PCT/100)] for  and (PCT/100) for , where PCT is the percent of moisture needed to end the spell.Times         Courier   The National Drought Atlas is intended for use in real-time by water managers.   Because the modified PDSI values are readily available from the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, the Weekly Climate Bulletin, or the Climate Analysis Center's Climate Dial-Up Service, it is the modified Palmer Index whose values are summarized in the Atlas.  Times  Courier 3.     LIMITATIONS OF THE PALMER INDEX Times         Courier   Since the index is widely used as a drought assessment tool for water management and planning activities (Wilhite et al., 1991; Wilhite, 1990; Grigg and Vlachos, 1990; South Carolina Water Resources Commission, 1987; American Meteorological Society, 1986), it is important to summarize its limitations.  Palmer developed his index from temperature and precipitation data observed in the Great Plains (Palmer, 1965).  He specifically designed the index to treat the drought problem in semiarid and dry subhumid climates, and cautioned that extrapolation beyond these conditions may lead to unrealistic results.  The index is, however, being computed for and used in all 48 contiguous States.  Palmer also clearly states that improvements in the computation of evapotranspiration, determination of the available water capacity in a layer of soil, and estimation of runoff would likely lead to better results.  Not considered in his development are conditions such as water supply from areas that are not in proximity to the location for which the index is computed, snowmelt, or frozen ground.Times         CourierFour previous studies examined the Palmer Index in terms of the various assumptions and parameterizations inherent in the computation of the index.  Karl (1983) looked at drought durations and found that increasing the available water capacity in the soil tends to increase both the length and severity of the more extreme droughts.  The effect is greatest in the Rocky Mountain states and least in the East.  For milder droughts, there is little effect in the East.  He also found that the magnitude of the PDSI, but not the duration of a drought, is sensitive to the weighting factor k that allows for spatial comparisons.   He concluded that his sensitivity experiments showed a negligible effect on drought duration.  In a second study, Karl (1986) examined the effect on both the PDSI and PHDI of the length of the period used to compute the normal climate of the area, and concluded that at least 50 years of data should be used.  Times         CourierAlley (1984), in an excellent critique of the PDSI, documented several limitations of the method for computing the PDSI.  He noted that the simplistic representation of runoff is very crude, and that it is difficult to account for the lag between moisture surplus and streamflow.  He advised that extreme caution should be exercised in using water balance variables such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration in developing indices of drought.  He also advised that because terms such as "severe" and "extreme" drought are loosely defined, care should be used when referring to drought severity classes.  Alley determined that the conditional distribution of the PDSI given the value for the previous month may be bimodal, therefore limiting the use of conventional time series models for describing the stochastic properties of the index.  He was also disturbed by the effect on the index of the arbitrary thresholds for determining the beginning and ending of wet and dry spells.  Times         Courier   Guttman (1992) examined the sensitivity of monthly time series of the PHDI to departures from average temperature and precipitation conditions.  He found that an initialization period of up to five years is necessary before the time series become reliable.  He also found that the effect of temperature departures from average conditions are, from a practical view, insignificant.  The PHDI is, however, sensitive to precipitation departures from normal.   The results also show that a warmer than normal temperature usually decreases the PHDI more than a colder than normal temperature of the same magnitude increases the PHDI, but drier than normal conditions tend to decrease the index less than wetter conditions increase the index.  Guttman (1992) suggests that  the distribution of PHDI values may be asymmetric and possibly bimodal, thereby possibly impacting threshold values used for making operational decisions. Times  Courier 4.     DATATimes         Courier   Monthly modified PDSI values were computed for 1,036 sites across the contiguous United States.  Time series go back from 1990 (except from 1988 or 1989 for a few sites) to at least 1930 after allowing for an initialization period of four years.  Computations required not only serially complete monthly temperature and precipitation data, but also soil water capacities, coefficients for computing potential evapotranspiration, and weighting factors.  The values of these latter constants and factors that were used for the at-site computations were the values on file at the National Climatic Data Center that are representative of the climatic division in which the site is located.  Although not examined, the use of climatic division values was not thought to significantly impact the at-site modified PDSI computations.  This belief is based on the results of Karl (1983) and Guttman (1992), on the relatively small area of a climatic division (there are 344 divisions in the 48 contiguous United States), and on the assumption that a division is climatologically homogeneous. Times       Courier   Monthly average temperature and total precipitation data were taken from the National Climatic Data Center's 1,219-station Historical Climatology Network (Karl et al., 1990).  Both unadjusted and adjusted data are contained in this data set.  The unadjusted data are original observations that have undergone quality assurance checks.  Missing data have not been estimated and remain missing.  The adjusted data are the original observations that have been quality checked and modified from the original data, when necessary, to account for non-climatic effects and biases such as those caused by changes in station location.  Missing data have been estimated so that the data for a station are essentially serially complete.Times         Courier   The estimation and modification techniques are based on the concept of making corrections from trends and patterns at neighboring stations.  The neighbors are the closest stations within the network, and could be large distances away.  Meteorologically, precipitation is often a localized phenomenon so that adjustments made on the basis of stations that are not within the localized area are suspect.  It was therefore decided to use the unadjusted precipitation data for the drought atlas.  The spatial representation of monthly average temperature, however, is  generally a smooth, continuous field so that more confidence can be placed on temperature adjustments than on precipitation adjustments.  This added confidence, coupled with the relative insensitivity of the Palmer Index to temperature, led to the decision to use the serially complete, adjusted temperature data for the Atlas. Times  Courier        Since the unadjusted precipitation data are not serially complete, the missing data had to be estimated.  In addition, some of the monthly precipitation totals are the sum of daily values for less than a full month, i.e., some of the monthly data are partial totals.  Because of the localized nature of precipitation, there is no generalized, accepted method of obtaining meteorologically reliable estimates of missing data.  Times          Courier   A simple precipitation estimation procedure was used that is based on the assumption that, even though precipitation is a localized phenomenon, an average monthly total over a small area should be reasonably representative of any site within the area.   A missing total for a given month and year was estimated by averaging the totals for the month and year for all stations in the National Climatic Data Center's Summary of the Month digital data base that are within 60 miles of the station with missing data.  The number of nearby stations whose totals were averaged varied from 1 to 87.  The number of stations depends on the density of the station network (most dense in the Northeast and least dense in the Rocky Mountains) and the year (fewer stations in the earlier years of the period of record).  If digital data were not available, Climatological Data publications were examined, and the published recorded or estimated values for the month and year in question at the Historical Climatology Network station were used.  The publications were also used to obtain a small number of values to extend the length of record of the temperature records (the length of record of the temperature data at a site is often shorter than that of precipitation data).Times          Courier   If a station had a partial precipitation total for a given month and year, the average of the totals for the nearby stations was computed and compared to the partial total.  The higher of the partial total or nearby station average was used as the estimate for the total for the month and year at the station.   Almost 13,000 comparisons were made between a nearby station average and a partial total.  The nearby station average was higher than the  partial total for 60 percent of the comparisons and lower for 40 percent.  These percentages subjectively confirm the difficulty in estimating monthly precipitation amounts over a small area and add credibility to the decision to use the unadjusted data from the Historical Climatology Network.          Times          Courier   Note that the number of stations for which the drought index has been computed is less than the number of stations for which precipitation probabilities have been computed.  It was necessary to eliminate some stations from the drought computations because of inadequate data.  The inadequacies resulted from the requirement that both temperature and precipitation data had to be serially complete from 1926 onward.  If either the temperature or precipitation data were not available and missing data could not be estimated because of lack of digital or published data from nearby stations, then the modified PDSI could not be computed. Times  Courier 5.     DROUGHT FREQUENCIES  Times          Courier   Drought is defined as beginning in the month and year when the modified PDSI equals or falls below -1 after having been above -1, and drought duration is defined as the interval of time for which the modified PDSI remains equal or below -1.  Using these definitions, frequencies of drought beginning in a specified calendar month were tabulated for fixed durations of 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 60 months.Times          Courier   The method of counting the occurrences of drought is best illustrated by example.  Consider a site with a modified PDSI above -1 from January through February, 1943; at or below -1 for each month from March 1943 through June 1946; and above -1 from July through December 1946.  For the time period from 1943 through 1946, there would be 3 occurrences of drought with a 1-month duration beginning (and ending) in January and February (the years 1944, 1945 and 1946), 4 occurrences in each month March through June (the years 1943, 1944, 1945 and 1946), and 3 occurrences in each month July through December (the years 1943, 1944 and 1945).  There would be 3 occurrences of 6-month droughts beginning in January (the years 1944, 1945 and 1946), 2 occurrences beginning in February (the years 1944 and 1945), and 3 occurrences beginning in each month March through December (the years 1943, 1944 and 1945).          Multiyear drought events with fixed durations of 24, 36 or 60 months beginning in a specified month are non-overlapping.  The drought index for a site was examined from the beginning of the series to determine whether or not a drought of specified duration had occurred.  Once an event was identified, the series was then examined beginning with the month after the end of the drought to determine whether or not another drought had occurred.  For example, consider a drought beginning in March 1943 and ending in June 1947 and a second drought beginning in January 1949 and ending in December 1950.  There would be two occurrences of a 24-month drought beginning in January (January 1944-December 1945 and January 1949-December 1950), one in February (February 1944-January 1946), two each in March through July (March 1943-February 1945 and March 1945-February 1947, etc.), and one each in August through December (August 1943-July 1945, etc.).  There would also be one occurrence of 36-month droughts beginning in each of the calendar months (January 1944-December 1946, February 1944-January 1947, March 1943-February 1946, etc.).  As defined for the Atlas, there were no occurrences of a drought with a duration of 60 months.Times          Courier   Drought frequencies are expressed in terms of percentage.  The number of occurrences of droughts of a specified duration was divided by the number of periods of the specified duration that are contained in the whole length of record.  This quotient was then multiplied by 100 to obtain a percentage.  The use of percentages allows comparisons among stations with varying lengths of data records.  Caution, however, should be exercised in making comparisons because cyclical, aperiodic or other climatic conditions may influence the number of droughts in one time period differently from that in another time period.     Times  Courier 6.     REFERENCESTimes  CourierAlley, W.M., 1984: The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations  and assumptions, J. Clim. Appl. Meteor., 23, 1100-1109.Times  CourierAmerican Meteorological Society, 1986: Conference on Climate and  Water Management--A Critical Era, Boston, MA, 154pp.Times  CourierGuttman, N.B., 1992: A sensitivity analysis of the Palmer  Hydrologic Drought Index.  Water Resources Bull., in press.Times  CourierKarl, T.R., C.N. Williams, Jr., F.T. Quinlan and T.A. Boden, 1990:  United States Historical Climatology Network (HCN) serial  temperature and precipitation data.  ORNL/CDIAC-30, NDP- 019/R1, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge  National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN, 374pp. Grigg, N.S. and E.C. Vlachos, 1990: Drought Water Management,  International School for Water Resources, Colorado St. Univ.,  Ft. Collins, CO, 252pp.Times  CourierHeddinghaus, T.R. and P. Sabol, 1991: A review of the Palmer  Drought Severity Index and where do we go from here? Proc. 7th  Conf. on Applied Climatology, September 10-13, 1991, American  Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 242-246.Times  CourierKarl, T.R., 1983: Some spatial characteristics of drought duration  in the United States, J. Clim. Appl. Meteor., 22, 1356-1366.Times  CourierKarl, T.R., 1986: The sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity  Index and Palmer's Z-index to their calibration coefficients  including potential evapotranspiration, J. Clim. Appl.  Meteor., 25, 77-86. Palmer, W.C., 1965: Meteorological Drought. Res. Paper No. 45,  Weather Bureau, Washington, DC, 58pp.Times  CourierSouth Carolina Water Resources Commission, 1987: Southeastern  Drought Symposium Proceedings. South Carolina State  Climatology Office Publication G-30, Columbia, SC, 110pp.Times  CourierThornthwaite, C.W. and J.R. Mather, 1955: The Water Balance. Publ.  in Climatology, 8, 1, Drexel Inst. Technology, Lab.  Climatology, Centerton, NJ, 102pp.Times  CourierWilhite, D.A., 1990: Planning for Drought: A Process for State  Government. IDIC Tech. Rep. Series 90-1, International Drought  Information Center, Univ. Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, 52pp.Times  CourierWilhite, D.A., D.A. Wood and P.A. Kay, 1991: Drought Management and  Planning. IDIC Tech. Rep. Series 91-1, International Drought  Information Center, Univ. Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, 245pp.   Times ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== 1029. 2005-04-15 16:59:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Apr 15 16:59:42 2005 from: Tom Melvin subject: Re: Tom Program to: Kurt Nicolussi Kurt, The Data was embedded into the Email. One possibility is that if you put the data in a .zip file they will not be embedded. Tom 452 395 445 460 367 437 g27_m 1050 452 370 352 380 405 422 337 405 380 340 g27_m 1060 435 412 455 462 520 530 400 552 512 445 g27_m 1070 432 412 425 450 595 999 g28_m 869 1210 g28_m 870 1192 1137 360 1080 1020 1030 757 707 727 987 g28_m 880 1047 1052 1197 1005 895 932 1120 672 762 567 g28_m 890 552 772 827 787 835 902 647 717 532 700 g28_m 900 875 907 922 925 765 825 892 727 885 870 g28_m 910 845 840 895 995 982 757 900 830 440 800 g28_m 920 730 607 647 717 737 687 637 722 897 822 g28_m 930 712 680 725 730 800 732 675 642 620 572 g28_m 940 652 700 667 615 590 640 602 702 715 647 g28_m 950 652 670 610 695 615 570 635 465 545 432 g28_m 960 562 450 432 462 562 680 640 602 545 547 g28_m 970 620 517 552 512 500 425 407 422 467 505 g28_m 980 440 442 540 502 605 600 490 567 600 642 g28_m 990 585 592 492 540 490 425 350 362 352 350 g28_m 1000 372 390 372 467 377 415 377 380 435 400 g28_m 1010 295 292 332 305 207 302 222 252 197 225 g28_m 1020 167 147 212 182 190 192 192 182 175 202 g28_m 1030 235 272 227 250 262 225 270 232 195 235 g28_m 1040 215 190 212 217 242 225 237 215 212 272 g28_m 1050 215 290 322 255 300 285 280 347 265 327 g28_m 1060 347 342 330 360 365 437 390 475 457 402 g28_m 1070 402 432 390 400 417 325 462 397 367 452 g28_m 1080 447 427 380 420 377 427 475 450 495 470 g28_m 1090 495 532 585 540 505 510 550 507 510 560 g28_m 1100 500 567 507 462 572 550 455 432 457 502 g28_m 1110 510 487 432 520 480 447 485 462 455 460 g28_m 1120 505 485 530 550 460 452 465 430 452 402 g28_m 1130 480 999 g29neu_m 659 791 g29neu_m 660 733 395 596 402 592 622 1152 543 820 925 g29neu_m 670 847 1022 810 1036 753 607 862 986 870 718 g29neu_m 680 977 1043 1091 841 760 897 613 981 967 1021 g29neu_m 690 677 848 666 821 961 886 1175 1333 1623 1602 g29neu_m 700 1530 1277 966 1008 1021 1333 953 835 796 781 g29neu_m 710 801 797 770 697 632 737 916 773 743 733 g29neu_m 720 713 698 873 760 612 630 752 800 930 620 g29neu_m 730 800 772 710 642 875 951 733 627 647 630 g29neu_m 740 651 716 795 645 735 850 718 695 691 737 g29neu_m 750 720 677 602 680 761 668 787 552 776 951 g29neu_m 760 835 735 805 878 757 833 616 527 640 805 g29neu_m 770 696 630 555 513 493 445 412 331 345 325 g29neu_m 780 316 361 525 428 370 380 420 465 435 421 g29neu_m 790 340 428 308 395 370 398 341 388 368 300 g29neu_m 800 281 290 271 293 321 326 253 258 308 303 g29neu_m 810 306 325 380 315 341 321 338 451 266 231 g29neu_m 820 230 183 205 208 248 215 183 198 287 242 g29neu_m 830 242 205 202 185 212 177 242 265 185 280 g29neu_m 840 352 310 325 326 330 331 338 373 461 400 g29neu_m 850 411 346 243 341 385 356 336 355 378 301 g29neu_m 860 301 343 405 397 467 360 390 412 422 467 g29neu_m 870 365 317 440 420 385 482 455 442 532 490 g29neu_m 880 445 380 450 270 999 g35_m 130 1300 1402 1451 1074 1604 1384 1063 974 907 1010 g35_m 140 1147 1116 1072 1122 817 1022 908 1087 902 854 g35_m 150 819 830 701 1004 1272 800 919 827 731 684 g35_m 160 589 705 690 725 635 669 941 795 800 797 g35_m 170 895 709 655 592 566 591 568 602 433 325 g35_m 180 437 564 560 591 563 547 492 512 530 471 g35_m 190 411 509 519 484 515 536 528 599 506 512 g35_m 200 408 525 524 369 341 316 284 244 260 431 g35_m 210 288 401 381 380 373 328 316 342 266 231 g35_m 220 241 248 314 303 329 346 364 345 396 394 g35_m 230 349 407 365 362 411 437 373 357 391 430 g35_m 240 444 474 453 417 421 525 103 384 324 294 g35_m 250 242 197 296 282 306 259 316 280 234 292 g35_m 260 272 335 350 256 235 290 252 264 236 214 g35_m 270 266 282 275 307 280 274 283 256 347 232 g35_m 280 276 346 326 338 316 343 294 278 315 362 g35_m 290 234 266 293 269 273 333 290 265 251 241 g35_m 300 293 355 287 377 318 355 303 277 226 288 g35_m 310 346 335 311 277 270 294 346 281 342 286 g35_m 320 350 213 208 263 259 206 237 300 362 225 g35_m 330 319 354 254 270 253 220 999 g38_m 343 1351 1335 2159 2821 3841 3428 3260 g38_m 350 3418 3308 2659 2961 2536 2811 2115 2128 1901 1788 g38_m 360 2055 1710 1798 1718 2103 2070 2248 2573 2155 2088 g38_m 370 2003 1979 1970 2008 1679 1785 1706 1450 1473 1789 g38_m 380 1825 1488 1499 1713 1609 1705 1774 1823 1881 1978 g38_m 390 1659 1430 1448 1215 1745 1566 1446 1806 1719 1240 g38_m 400 1366 1160 1174 1199 1375 1239 1373 1425 1399 1285 g38_m 410 1238 1354 1543 613 868 793 845 1054 1013 1084 g38_m 420 1230 1289 1126 1127 1187 1214 1005 983 1074 1291 g38_m 430 1532 1051 1252 1303 1237 1345 1119 1183 1291 1069 g38_m 440 972 887 1084 1155 935 865 727 960 989 906 g38_m 450 876 734 795 736 692 824 641 821 778 849 g38_m 460 1091 854 786 806 833 800 921 205 438 468 g38_m 470 472 564 595 651 546 603 637 575 509 648 g38_m 480 650 610 559 665 638 608 609 615 559 580 g38_m 490 499 448 426 541 597 542 650 606 573 611 g38_m 500 625 468 343 374 323 359 453 392 379 413 g38_m 510 442 406 461 355 437 422 420 413 464 450 g38_m 520 508 489 487 501 454 494 498 546 521 578 g38_m 530 589 499 480 533 445 430 498 556 447 373 g38_m 540 430 465 426 426 373 329 364 374 463 379 g38_m 550 415 386 454 478 549 595 600 601 558 538 g38_m 560 471 429 391 404 409 403 401 445 445 435 g38_m 570 501 394 365 361 278 331 339 431 411 359 g38_m 580 314 301 381 361 344 358 331 398 500 323 g38_m 590 348 368 337 402 320 295 315 300 218 253 g38_m 600 250 213 248 237 237 240 252 217 258 280 g38_m 610 230 252 190 267 250 270 260 257 290 343 g38_m 620 263 300 302 260 252 275 248 212 287 267 g38_m 630 265 195 262 260 265 193 225 198 215 197 g38_m 640 235 242 235 175 180 258 225 227 165 212 g38_m 650 248 225 187 215 217 262 237 238 283 200 g38_m 660 193 212 205 238 197 197 165 177 220 167 g38_m 670 168 193 183 167 235 190 160 150 165 208 g38_m 680 208 188 150 185 215 213 190 193 183 135 g38_m 690 153 155 98 105 123 148 103 118 110 108 g38_m 700 103 115 123 123 145 148 133 128 153 133 g38_m 710 135 133 110 100 123 153 145 153 138 130 g38_m 720 125 150 148 123 118 115 105 130 135 128 g38_m 730 125 115 160 155 140 140 180 145 999 g45_m 385 354 335 418 371 253 g45_m 390 246 299 407 472 391 408 331 438 510 423 g45_m 400 636 650 437 503 564 562 604 769 1050 931 g45_m 410 733 643 553 509 598 626 506 547 419 514 g45_m 420 508 455 477 411 410 450 400 390 339 424 g45_m 430 481 396 434 551 418 471 422 422 424 387 g45_m 440 408 420 476 486 420 423 396 410 419 374 g45_m 450 400 425 466 427 369 429 390 480 442 446 g45_m 460 428 330 320 377 390 346 329 231 265 230 g45_m 470 202 258 281 350 356 377 372 312 260 324 g45_m 480 275 261 261 307 266 239 256 230 286 263 g45_m 490 255 239 258 260 270 310 303 309 303 288 g45_m 500 287 252 263 323 272 268 299 255 274 271 g45_m 510 248 282 280 258 289 280 265 256 207 209 g45_m 520 198 198 175 209 259 303 295 327 256 279 g45_m 530 230 251 216 199 158 208 264 294 214 169 g45_m 540 158 153 143 161 157 117 127 191 219 186 g45_m 550 172 219 234 205 271 312 243 313 298 296 g45_m 560 257 230 218 200 207 192 205 223 218 214 g45_m 570 218 193 160 189 155 177 157 193 186 178 g45_m 580 135 144 165 197 187 185 195 212 229 180 g45_m 590 197 191 217 246 209 219 248 227 215 191 g45_m 600 193 179 200 212 217 218 200 188 219 240 g45_m 610 233 137 178 203 193 197 214 239 242 306 g45_m 620 252 222 281 201 223 231 209 999 g48_m 317 988 1051 1231 g48_m 320 1360 1513 1609 1535 1489 1260 1085 1123 1438 1121 g48_m 330 1158 1255 972 937 946 738 787 835 772 855 g48_m 340 927 1026 970 721 850 1002 943 795 759 696 g48_m 350 790 801 748 901 856 808 624 595 714 802 g48_m 360 863 1053 1060 992 954 848 843 855 934 800 g48_m 370 887 878 782 806 835 856 659 805 823 839 g48_m 380 849 606 709 677 620 757 773 944 794 749 g48_m 390 636 735 696 710 774 664 688 709 803 778 g48_m 400 709 662 601 606 729 709 622 613 580 562 g48_m 410 578 659 603 597 553 549 698 659 710 633 g48_m 420 613 556 595 620 578 566 515 530 473 543 g48_m 430 592 542 605 582 667 540 478 509 509 442 g48_m 440 608 632 636 530 721 463 559 551 603 495 g48_m 450 626 386 446 482 554 495 528 613 629 637 g48_m 460 767 559 544 651 511 287 529 473 496 414 g48_m 470 510 440 465 497 548 631 490 432 370 473 g48_m 480 647 468 420 539 526 559 399 436 482 589 g48_m 490 455 540 505 624 648 591 518 595 528 475 g48_m 500 580 568 510 532 356 533 565 494 501 556 g48_m 510 489 444 547 491 412 423 416 482 436 401 g48_m 520 469 479 641 696 649 544 540 555 307 435 g48_m 530 471 348 369 442 387 382 356 366 364 364 g48_m 540 405 434 429 349 391 333 456 381 488 401 g48_m 550 477 457 479 453 555 662 679 627 542 596 g48_m 560 484 428 325 440 438 407 416 411 445 564 g48_m 570 467 424 422 368 260 338 410 438 546 446 g48_m 580 482 404 433 454 446 454 445 454 492 447 g48_m 590 442 424 363 427 459 462 376 328 394 317 g48_m 600 332 308 359 335 346 386 435 346 378 458 g48_m 610 344 409 341 329 361 342 334 398 455 417 g48_m 620 344 406 444 388 422 476 439 391 424 383 g48_m 630 293 298 327 320 390 323 458 451 417 369 g48_m 640 416 356 334 300 387 344 319 331 281 244 g48_m 650 251 341 258 281 216 267 260 295 250 305 g48_m 660 285 325 266 257 251 259 272 232 296 214 g48_m 670 242 240 222 243 235 251 236 224 195 236 g48_m 680 175 144 167 150 139 137 87 138 124 161 g48_m 690 79 171 123 177 181 160 161 152 167 166 g48_m 700 222 300 241 236 165 288 185 160 273 212 g48_m 710 183 165 135 143 100 162 171 147 128 157 g48_m 720 164 92 191 51 89 62 140 91 104 53 g48_m 730 92 76 80 66 80 82 83 67 93 65 g48_m 740 68 67 110 110 999 g49_m 929 2800 g49_m 930 2284 1947 1579 1775 1740 2387 2314 1841 2263 1770 g49_m 940 2083 1721 1764 1351 1225 1335 1718 1642 1661 1787 g49_m 950 1824 2039 1850 2201 1698 1447 1823 1315 1370 1197 g49_m 960 1263 1177 1259 1087 1130 1360 1321 1183 1212 1060 g49_m 970 988 810 993 1013 960 1099 1174 953 916 992 g49_m 980 873 959 789 881 1027 1014 812 753 830 865 g49_m 990 819 895 863 743 694 618 607 713 619 696 g49_m 1000 552 603 611 601 531 577 622 588 673 496 g49_m 1010 503 594 599 542 445 486 447 530 357 556 g49_m 1020 402 394 502 500 564 479 476 461 503 469 g49_m 1030 544 616 471 451 518 465 530 487 436 431 g49_m 1040 367 424 422 379 409 417 440 404 405 427 g49_m 1050 448 361 416 311 312 311 299 320 244 285 g49_m 1060 294 309 343 398 353 396 366 452 325 267 g49_m 1070 237 306 225 275 254 264 999 g50smg5m 153 1710 2100 1380 619 535 585 555 g50smg5m 160 573 548 527 822 628 465 555 497 474 363 g50smg5m 170 396 418 479 611 1031 1454 1491 1790 2030 1421 g50smg5m 180 1845 1913 1654 1627 1686 1803 1610 1464 1531 1881 g50smg5m 190 2084 1986 1422 1654 1766 1836 1451 2142 1741 1767 g50smg5m 200 1584 1437 1543 1377 1350 1187 1213 1061 1130 1392 g50smg5m 210 1104 1190 1370 1240 1285 1293 1171 1238 1046 1026 g50smg5m 220 1123 977 1285 1189 1308 1223 1210 1052 1245 1277 g50smg5m 230 1172 1031 1060 1121 1288 1254 1189 1187 1240 1491 g50smg5m 240 1487 1369 1366 1217 1039 1331 664 833 900 916 g50smg5m 250 903 772 939 839 959 837 825 843 699 824 g50smg5m 260 705 783 843 667 576 588 600 639 527 483 g50smg5m 270 482 508 553 538 433 572 544 481 571 465 g50smg5m 280 446 513 551 480 491 444 498 420 405 419 g50smg5m 290 342 368 417 343 350 361 331 385 324 247 g50smg5m 300 342 374 328 320 284 232 228 228 229 180 g50smg5m 310 243 225 200 242 217 190 181 198 203 231 g50smg5m 320 199 207 247 195 242 210 166 170 219 169 g50smg5m 330 153 179 138 79 156 136 162 159 118 137 g50smg5m 340 127 147 127 112 120 157 163 189 170 137 g50smg5m 350 172 153 167 173 159 202 179 136 158 180 g50smg5m 360 154 172 160 167 147 136 176 175 198 146 g50smg5m 370 194 194 173 196 187 231 185 241 219 232 g50smg5m 380 229 187 257 218 169 173 158 201 159 175 g50smg5m 390 145 149 138 125 166 160 170 166 146 143 g50smg5m 400 172 137 158 181 192 195 160 179 208 158 g50smg5m 410 126 149 154 151 132 96 159 146 156 121 g50smg5m 420 172 148 125 133 139 147 152 122 174 146 g50smg5m 430 212 174 203 234 202 185 168 259 232 204 g50smg5m 440 241 229 258 232 265 210 238 234 259 227 g50smg5m 450 282 207 253 261 238 267 234 274 257 243 g50smg5m 460 267 200 214 245 207 260 296 159 198 215 g50smg5m 470 190 182 187 217 212 239 241 215 200 211 g50smg5m 480 272 223 169 183 174 224 162 152 157 154 g50smg5m 490 122 143 153 196 215 174 171 233 217 214 g50smg5m 500 209 191 185 224 182 188 206 199 184 217 g50smg5m 510 198 186 198 152 120 146 132 130 114 112 g50smg5m 520 127 152 141 148 150 163 160 195 109 171 g50smg5m 530 157 165 182 183 159 165 187 179 164 156 g50smg5m 540 144 117 131 137 141 133 128 143 159 125 g50smg5m 550 118 102 134 136 131 156 210 183 187 167 g50smg5m 560 143 166 170 185 198 182 160 176 188 188 g50smg5m 570 177 168 131 139 151 177 180 171 217 190 g50smg5m 580 193 171 176 207 220 206 228 237 245 175 g50smg5m 590 169 186 120 195 210 120 180 210 180 150 g50smg5m 600 180 120 180 180 150 180 150 120 150 180 g50smg5m 610 150 120 120 180 999 g51_m 154 2125 1947 2353 2395 2616 2930 g51_m 160 2863 2687 2409 2926 2867 2728 2721 2982 2562 1979 g51_m 170 2271 2563 2592 2380 2428 2657 2408 2511 2620 2111 g51_m 180 2665 2390 2545 2385 2540 2349 2373 1881 2037 2567 g51_m 190 2237 2340 2354 2249 2367 2209 2128 2378 2088 1909 g51_m 200 1635 1507 1662 1327 1446 1227 1114 1028 1103 1465 g51_m 210 1129 1406 1683 1431 1470 1536 1495 1538 1389 1368 g51_m 220 1496 1242 1550 1228 1407 1394 1514 1265 1440 1260 g51_m 230 1011 905 1007 1064 1160 1167 1195 1227 1177 1289 g51_m 240 1126 1141 1088 1070 878 1039 539 741 771 732 g51_m 250 740 607 735 602 587 564 586 591 416 478 g51_m 260 506 556 518 383 377 383 340 379 392 317 g51_m 270 367 424 449 461 447 499 525 539 593 485 g51_m 280 474 526 461 441 406 400 438 364 332 384 g51_m 290 327 326 413 310 321 351 341 388 299 187 g51_m 300 297 366 281 312 220 162 140 162 147 143 g51_m 310 193 221 188 232 209 220 154 194 232 236 g51_m 320 218 220 246 222 259 215 208 217 209 184 g51_m 330 193 180 159 122 160 148 170 220 168 188 g51_m 340 177 181 182 179 188 192 200 296 282 278 g51_m 350 262 256 254 233 206 270 230 209 161 162 g51_m 360 183 138 146 125 124 120 160 128 130 130 g51_m 370 136 174 164 171 159 228 128 136 182 175 g51_m 380 162 142 999 g52_m 164 2919 2655 1605 1981 2518 2390 g52_m 170 918 2369 2437 1391 2799 2345 2447 1984 1746 2062 g52_m 180 2308 2186 2495 2018 1597 2666 2897 2544 2754 2709 g52_m 190 2496 2707 2712 2569 2651 3079 2714 3037 2280 2485 g52_m 200 2294 2340 2395 2023 1787 1457 1265 1002 1072 1615 g52_m 210 1402 1674 2182 1878 1715 1624 1421 1629 1217 1052 g52_m 220 1013 931 1223 1110 1097 1252 1228 1060 1062 1053 g52_m 230 1000 993 1023 1042 1147 1120 1119 1017 862 1004 g52_m 240 1042 974 970 725 588 705 267 446 492 444 g52_m 250 455 374 628 486 432 428 413 420 337 423 g52_m 260 454 435 365 256 233 228 240 333 272 211 g52_m 270 224 278 345 395 272 321 360 377 413 334 g52_m 280 310 364 458 346 390 305 339 289 272 271 g52_m 290 229 271 261 245 282 338 317 348 323 205 g52_m 300 288 379 321 318 276 214 249 241 244 213 g52_m 310 293 321 311 363 323 290 257 254 295 287 g52_m 320 261 306 317 313 389 351 317 345 378 293 g52_m 330 342 360 315 276 369 358 381 374 343 408 g52_m 340 429 465 408 365 402 419 421 461 501 391 g52_m 350 410 419 358 357 380 387 350 312 332 345 g52_m 360 334 374 333 399 356 360 436 413 476 381 g52_m 370 427 461 462 439 413 491 361 418 406 420 g52_m 380 428 355 450 448 362 413 421 520 450 405 g52_m 390 331 311 405 344 382 328 332 420 367 340 g52_m 400 393 326 392 386 343 388 330 313 355 294 g52_m 410 254 290 288 176 249 193 261 268 285 229 g52_m 420 245 241 213 203 177 207 164 157 186 171 g52_m 430 227 143 175 212 209 175 150 184 185 147 g52_m 440 199 164 189 174 185 131 151 162 172 146 g52_m 450 164 123 122 118 141 127 154 174 161 179 g52_m 460 195 148 130 197 138 232 263 161 173 220 g52_m 470 257 256 296 353 316 303 309 269 229 270 g52_m 480 342 383 266 281 261 324 245 236 182 207 g52_m 490 203 227 209 267 205 161 135 190 204 242 g52_m 500 238 202 173 279 165 208 244 159 175 235 g52_m 510 275 197 239 277 432 438 443 583 545 519 g52_m 520 467 508 529 554 598 469 495 604 281 496 g52_m 530 666 355 374 466 398 317 398 287 281 327 g52_m 540 371 274 256 223 240 246 278 311 315 261 g52_m 550 279 229 323 258 346 383 365 378 426 382 g52_m 560 348 238 160 93 179 146 191 160 195 184 g52_m 570 174 127 201 172 141 197 285 297 422 403 g52_m 580 357 399 338 373 273 188 192 173 179 144 g52_m 590 95 138 74 84 51 58 67 70 86 71 g52_m 600 58 81 98 68 34 57 89 86 69 111 g52_m 610 95 97 114 74 110 106 120 103 89 62 g52_m 620 67 102 107 66 80 84 999 g53_m 212 623 605 443 601 618 837 1019 819 g53_m 220 992 505 439 370 422 252 127 163 167 128 g53_m 230 111 214 407 616 443 785 691 551 657 739 g53_m 240 385 344 391 275 267 326 192 272 169 198 g53_m 250 198 173 172 197 330 570 438 531 528 618 g53_m 260 515 700 722 809 746 748 695 863 880 941 g53_m 270 1104 1279 1196 1097 1366 1748 1362 1220 1143 981 g53_m 280 959 1109 960 1004 705 663 685 631 529 592 g53_m 290 567 526 591 428 412 439 452 468 407 327 g53_m 300 407 487 414 476 394 283 281 345 248 234 g53_m 310 335 429 357 357 357 344 300 300 283 309 g53_m 320 334 368 396 390 463 341 340 344 368 326 g53_m 330 349 391 336 319 328 288 304 315 271 339 g53_m 340 285 305 242 234 243 295 309 379 371 325 g53_m 350 335 367 362 349 332 393 366 327 324 305 g53_m 360 293 277 258 269 270 234 255 238 272 229 g53_m 370 238 288 268 279 289 282 216 273 262 321 g53_m 380 296 269 293 306 267 328 340 371 297 339 g53_m 390 289 279 251 279 271 252 240 252 245 246 g53_m 400 255 239 247 267 268 267 263 269 282 256 g53_m 410 251 288 290 243 235 232 251 254 274 250 g53_m 420 276 242 243 215 235 229 193 210 232 259 g53_m 430 264 215 247 257 261 270 228 224 201 184 g53_m 440 207 200 212 206 204 187 184 206 189 206 g53_m 450 231 174 187 223 224 183 170 210 207 192 g53_m 460 195 135 132 150 172 190 212 163 199 189 g53_m 470 168 161 177 196 185 193 187 171 146 182 g53_m 480 196 213 132 154 160 169 148 153 145 135 g53_m 490 148 161 129 138 138 121 118 132 126 149 g53_m 500 144 117 110 140 158 159 172 141 153 170 g53_m 510 163 151 190 157 161 154 150 164 178 181 g53_m 520 169 172 154 179 182 181 191 171 137 186 g53_m 530 182 164 182 169 164 133 180 172 138 135 g53_m 540 130 124 120 131 162 130 128 133 158 137 g53_m 550 136 142 165 147 182 204 177 190 182 217 g53_m 560 202 200 179 219 200 175 224 244 279 265 g53_m 570 280 245 209 178 208 219 228 238 232 246 g53_m 580 207 210 287 264 239 246 256 260 253 234 g53_m 590 238 187 215 259 220 229 213 204 159 221 g53_m 600 210 185 207 199 205 224 186 199 188 185 g53_m 610 180 213 198 219 234 215 211 282 293 321 g53_m 620 284 296 315 283 351 377 322 346 427 335 g53_m 630 414 343 372 330 378 312 386 350 320 414 g53_m 640 373 385 405 425 427 458 366 377 319 325 g53_m 650 415 417 396 332 345 452 476 400 430 379 g53_m 660 442 458 362 396 359 365 377 310 351 337 g53_m 670 343 398 366 342 396 298 321 298 315 330 g53_m 680 356 335 386 363 449 444 477 350 410 999 g54_2m 969 1272 g54_2m 970 1017 1415 736 648 470 614 425 444 423 742 g54_2m 980 445 548 253 455 320 785 1207 1625 1931 1699 g54_2m 990 1495 1632 1370 1652 1429 1164 1016 1217 974 1195 g54_2m 1000 947 964 962 1039 988 941 1034 984 1075 1016 g54_2m 1010 711 787 974 964 581 691 607 741 562 753 g54_2m 1020 538 541 671 563 596 511 519 555 549 436 g54_2m 1030 597 589 501 651 622 633 550 607 435 538 g54_2m 1040 434 477 508 512 515 488 519 627 610 656 g54_2m 1050 593 576 569 490 521 530 490 471 393 461 g54_2m 1060 485 441 446 447 374 374 282 330 359 325 g54_2m 1070 348 360 357 439 337 129 226 192 167 296 g54_2m 1080 290 325 265 276 292 268 258 271 217 243 g54_2m 1090 193 254 259 262 205 235 247 257 224 208 g54_2m 1100 247 252 230 218 299 301 278 231 224 245 g54_2m 1110 267 305 241 262 287 250 228 183 164 154 g54_2m 1120 190 182 237 237 274 244 266 263 260 210 g54_2m 1130 212 238 266 234 224 236 243 246 239 218 g54_2m 1140 233 250 180 214 196 240 254 184 219 265 g54_2m 1150 262 229 216 253 232 243 287 268 268 278 g54_2m 1160 350 313 270 295 246 272 233 186 193 224 g54_2m 1170 234 221 247 255 201 232 214 242 193 193 g54_2m 1180 215 192 200 207 199 167 176 160 119 118 g54_2m 1190 134 160 124 127 128 107 80 95 97 103 g54_2m 1200 105 118 113 150 147 138 186 161 180 155 g54_2m 1210 190 172 179 151 166 160 164 127 134 179 g54_2m 1220 157 162 140 163 146 158 122 162 155 174 g54_2m 1230 187 136 138 132 136 142 133 185 194 198 g54_2m 1240 198 245 212 210 179 186 170 189 196 137 g54_2m 1250 98 87 83 55 46 48 60 66 72 75 g54_2m 1260 999 g55_m 181 3141 2926 2629 2343 2138 2223 1881 1916 2262 g55_m 190 1801 2110 1492 2765 2885 2284 2160 2182 1392 1569 g55_m 200 1428 1424 907 635 808 620 764 783 855 1152 g55_m 210 842 988 1307 1212 1103 624 595 665 623 581 g55_m 220 704 654 864 906 893 845 956 673 822 928 g55_m 230 850 988 804 883 1097 1117 1020 1055 1013 1154 g55_m 240 1000 927 861 859 750 1099 228 703 731 765 g55_m 250 762 812 833 864 799 884 748 934 886 885 g55_m 260 785 913 924 786 720 900 758 803 749 745 g55_m 270 828 865 729 696 697 895 881 794 811 773 g55_m 280 812 846 916 1027 789 824 856 721 763 749 g55_m 290 730 685 698 616 660 685 710 721 645 619 g55_m 300 634 694 506 596 555 392 400 475 429 448 g55_m 310 516 483 474 511 472 473 510 466 529 510 g55_m 320 414 448 537 540 623 452 410 428 483 458 g55_m 330 469 480 386 347 357 338 390 373 308 332 g55_m 340 346 343 364 367 416 439 455 447 515 424 g55_m 350 556 520 486 454 576 505 479 457 469 443 g55_m 360 435 361 315 359 460 376 375 416 420 385 g55_m 370 397 393 414 415 373 431 370 404 442 544 g55_m 380 571 459 410 475 424 385 394 444 441 453 g55_m 390 326 311 340 411 386 348 370 383 417 317 g55_m 400 353 305 328 348 338 335 358 347 429 361 g55_m 410 338 374 400 240 292 296 296 297 359 324 g55_m 420 323 347 314 280 355 345 288 321 300 322 g55_m 430 345 252 277 289 260 273 246 294 237 228 g55_m 440 210 215 249 255 257 211 234 247 243 251 g55_m 450 271 243 271 225 220 244 233 275 242 256 g55_m 460 268 210 223 256 287 263 303 94 228 231 g55_m 470 175 212 212 264 262 246 257 265 210 280 g55_m 480 299 287 253 244 296 237 242 244 294 277 g55_m 490 282 267 244 277 295 307 300 243 221 278 g55_m 500 266 215 264 281 281 216 291 242 248 310 g55_m 510 272 299 283 269 283 264 223 230 350 294 g55_m 520 288 300 253 272 259 358 373 340 294 263 g55_m 530 290 327 283 351 234 282 293 282 280 232 g55_m 540 240 262 221 219 199 168 212 229 276 205 g55_m 550 200 241 272 272 282 337 292 311 296 306 g55_m 560 255 207 200 263 225 222 226 223 264 232 g55_m 570 222 179 173 207 193 235 173 223 261 231 g55_m 580 191 221 255 258 262 266 270 302 299 236 g55_m 590 250 201 184 216 183 153 169 168 143 159 g55_m 600 148 120 134 183 164 157 118 104 131 138 g55_m 610 113 109 106 122 117 90 78 93 89 92 g55_m 620 74 90 105 70 64 62 53 54 67 50 g55_m 630 52 64 98 150 106 82 81 54 55 53 g55_m 640 57 76 52 60 58 999 g56_m 394 635 731 482 565 515 518 g56_m 400 344 254 220 270 252 271 270 344 382 395 g56_m 410 377 420 442 276 399 285 331 399 500 448 g56_m 420 507 483 432 431 453 412 308 295 314 376 g56_m 430 439 448 449 426 427 437 404 373 426 436 g56_m 440 380 420 437 473 434 432 544 612 573 572 g56_m 450 676 502 551 540 549 567 469 533 486 489 g56_m 460 637 509 491 464 474 539 620 344 418 462 g56_m 470 461 458 456 542 462 561 518 519 391 434 g56_m 480 591 495 395 527 539 554 543 592 589 685 g56_m 490 805 701 577 636 777 690 817 787 741 843 g56_m 500 767 593 586 708 640 597 745 525 582 688 g56_m 510 698 625 638 510 459 438 445 481 531 493 g56_m 520 452 522 492 486 555 519 553 577 453 416 g56_m 530 457 436 468 488 480 422 299 221 102 99 g56_m 540 110 101 119 101 113 106 116 140 181 142 g56_m 550 144 131 150 163 175 210 203 205 180 195 g56_m 560 175 181 165 182 162 171 156 165 182 212 g56_m 570 234 265 265 190 178 192 185 214 189 190 g56_m 580 150 172 189 214 193 192 215 236 225 191 g56_m 590 196 178 199 249 246 175 185 142 134 140 g56_m 600 140 140 189 191 204 174 155 117 151 197 g56_m 610 179 215 228 209 237 237 259 283 360 443 g56_m 620 321 252 279 276 316 350 331 320 329 325 g56_m 630 376 307 286 252 195 999 g58_km 398 552 536 g58_km 400 634 629 603 501 597 535 615 529 560 562 g58_km 410 595 653 729 420 521 525 539 510 547 601 g58_km 420 604 524 520 523 536 530 511 496 510 524 g58_km 430 632 478 534 552 548 589 505 512 520 512 g58_km 440 518 517 533 559 558 493 507 632 596 571 g58_km 450 587 406 427 448 445 559 526 545 451 439 g58_km 460 483 383 355 321 351 409 438 218 307 304 g58_km 470 308 306 306 321 280 373 280 272 219 235 g58_km 480 258 284 239 310 284 287 275 253 222 255 g58_km 490 243 236 203 255 326 259 247 236 251 273 g58_km 500 272 233 229 351 266 275 263 197 233 247 g58_km 510 258 254 239 194 245 224 215 235 223 220 g58_km 520 241 251 240 234 247 235 216 161 151 134 g58_km 530 145 138 163 183 168 121 120 117 73 77 g58_km 540 999 g59_m 332 343 273 270 212 236 312 287 280 g59_m 340 321 272 332 359 309 267 293 306 159 152 g59_m 350 250 208 185 172 214 261 132 133 174 184 g59_m 360 203 176 179 172 180 199 214 170 118 107 g59_m 370 156 160 117 97 80 64 63 84 86 92 g59_m 380 118 90 121 228 191 183 212 206 180 131 g59_m 390 89 57 64 89 100 146 141 183 161 94 g59_m 400 89 86 92 119 121 99 149 143 153 152 g59_m 410 108 158 148 77 102 99 91 91 100 85 g59_m 420 98 104 110 158 185 165 180 198 308 368 g59_m 430 385 343 235 244 222 240 227 213 217 152 g59_m 440 141 214 259 297 204 289 293 373 210 153 g59_m 450 141 112 163 175 128 126 122 145 178 186 g59_m 460 182 154 158 186 225 206 204 119 166 165 g59_m 470 138 101 118 144 147 172 173 212 120 165 g59_m 480 266 279 205 254 219 209 127 159 128 160 g59_m 490 156 212 212 194 303 320 385 357 348 408 g59_m 500 335 352 272 293 247 186 267 132 157 239 g59_m 510 244 263 250 334 407 497 477 479 465 353 g59_m 520 347 346 248 273 280 323 294 422 276 311 g59_m 530 481 346 376 413 397 357 240 156 70 83 g59_m 540 93 122 144 134 115 111 188 197 284 262 g59_m 550 300 285 326 307 311 410 400 408 418 344 g59_m 560 281 260 244 237 195 195 215 216 237 287 g59_m 570 282 257 290 228 288 258 324 406 355 352 g59_m 580 319 292 287 257 276 256 270 315 254 240 g59_m 590 148 187 203 192 163 217 156 135 122 245 g59_m 600 228 999 g60_km 215 726 653 732 505 485 g60_km 220 418 455 449 406 538 456 485 383 535 455 g60_km 230 480 581 448 595 537 481 620 424 433 584 g60_km 240 577 518 622 587 587 552 667 354 323 387 g60_km 250 305 331 492 420 345 493 467 597 482 567 g60_km 260 478 517 435 341 316 337 365 360 406 364 g60_km 270 350 325 261 336 379 422 428 403 341 346 g60_km 280 400 448 375 465 392 358 398 372 379 424 g60_km 290 350 321 348 343 390 427 466 492 473 428 g60_km 300 431 457 393 414 346 340 348 390 326 331 g60_km 310 302 307 302 340 350 338 351 398 408 422 g60_km 320 371 353 370 400 409 273 283 291 334 287 g60_km 330 290 300 271 240 216 206 235 208 170 174 g60_km 340 180 190 179 173 209 238 238 236 220 221 g60_km 350 234 243 204 225 255 267 243 218 205 184 g60_km 360 240 214 220 214 259 237 279 280 270 262 g60_km 370 263 292 322 309 287 276 229 252 249 269 g60_km 380 286 238 229 250 237 257 239 254 288 292 g60_km 390 248 249 247 260 287 308 301 305 239 184 g60_km 400 183 181 177 202 177 171 243 215 304 308 g60_km 410 322 384 386 327 257 293 275 290 324 210 g60_km 420 215 218 195 210 221 217 208 211 270 283 g60_km 430 338 192 229 236 209 215 198 226 231 189 g60_km 440 202 216 217 200 223 217 243 248 262 265 g60_km 450 270 195 249 265 255 234 216 236 181 214 g60_km 460 237 212 214 213 243 233 299 153 222 237 g60_km 470 189 200 202 241 212 217 229 195 161 218 g60_km 480 247 215 178 208 207 227 176 178 181 185 g60_km 490 193 194 227 215 236 255 265 238 237 244 g60_km 500 194 200 171 242 205 201 225 211 185 216 g60_km 510 231 234 209 259 211 218 235 271 266 220 g60_km 520 206 209 224 206 220 185 155 197 202 185 g60_km 530 194 209 203 225 252 235 197 232 155 191 g60_km 540 162 166 194 206 183 174 147 159 167 142 g60_km 550 160 151 187 181 225 272 182 196 178 166 g60_km 560 176 171 135 103 133 142 151 171 144 169 g60_km 570 190 142 111 124 120 142 178 129 191 162 g60_km 580 155 158 181 175 176 999 g64_m 157 2520 3172 3391 g64_m 160 2846 2378 1889 1973 1775 1858 1988 1843 1787 1682 g64_m 170 2074 2015 1907 1717 1768 1769 1780 1656 1378 1557 g64_m 180 2016 1806 1873 1868 2112 1706 1656 1248 1715 2041 g64_m 190 1651 1405 1540 1820 2216 1789 1576 1637 1469 1424 g64_m 200 1359 1206 1599 1337 1121 854 919 782 971 1544 g64_m 210 1003 1299 1485 1212 1428 1412 1526 1340 1227 1274 g64_m 220 1170 1141 1370 1374 1349 1337 1471 1188 1288 1347 g64_m 230 1176 1101 1096 1143 1295 1419 1357 1277 1098 1327 g64_m 240 1364 1390 1285 1328 1065 1209 211 574 710 749 g64_m 250 667 626 802 825 708 1008 853 1118 929 1003 g64_m 260 870 1023 898 837 738 783 686 673 740 581 g64_m 270 784 967 748 757 641 730 840 826 743 659 g64_m 280 703 786 768 916 756 752 903 641 637 770 g64_m 290 697 600 686 714 647 622 679 724 704 619 g64_m 300 688 897 785 729 664 616 548 554 465 468 g64_m 310 531 590 599 584 618 591 547 619 641 618 g64_m 320 546 572 655 608 807 563 639 625 709 659 g64_m 330 645 678 610 542 579 553 604 623 560 566 g64_m 340 521 611 506 464 491 507 601 601 584 479 g64_m 350 505 488 431 368 483 571 436 420 401 351 g64_m 360 389 354 390 359 371 349 375 393 415 403 g64_m 370 388 492 428 482 457 479 390 468 414 361 g64_m 380 393 273 284 343 304 357 329 398 434 419 g64_m 390 410 403 342 369 368 365 316 351 357 330 g64_m 400 394 347 325 368 349 317 319 327 343 329 g64_m 410 343 372 331 286 263 250 298 287 283 295 g64_m 420 310 335 317 329 325 323 327 316 322 330 g64_m 430 343 295 369 388 341 304 267 293 298 290 g64_m 440 322 284 325 325 349 279 284 337 322 296 g64_m 450 347 288 306 360 339 307 281 287 292 271 g64_m 460 323 271 277 289 287 307 429 192 288 307 g64_m 470 254 284 279 326 276 309 335 323 257 343 g64_m 480 336 313 236 313 293 324 254 283 287 308 g64_m 490 268 299 239 285 296 268 334 276 281 340 g64_m 500 297 260 254 335 301 300 312 228 275 290 g64_m 510 237 240 262 238 239 259 270 283 296 244 g64_m 520 247 249 237 253 257 249 286 304 216 259 g64_m 530 308 219 267 278 249 244 243 237 223 180 g64_m 540 182 166 179 176 134 91 142 163 163 151 g64_m 550 142 154 186 172 169 179 210 200 230 218 g64_m 560 192 157 164 205 159 141 147 166 195 233 g64_m 570 235 217 222 153 241 189 204 218 205 204 g64_m 580 178 167 187 178 185 191 179 238 213 195 g64_m 590 248 214 211 215 215 170 203 199 149 149 g64_m 600 167 175 227 175 206 239 208 169 229 263 g64_m 610 248 367 297 342 310 289 295 308 351 401 g64_m 620 311 342 363 335 331 321 323 291 398 441 g64_m 630 447 356 349 293 336 251 259 290 269 232 g64_m 640 255 311 300 288 283 362 358 339 334 326 g64_m 650 342 304 259 379 400 462 437 382 355 301 g64_m 660 359 389 246 275 181 249 335 303 349 279 g64_m 670 241 321 287 260 297 239 201 252 240 278 g64_m 680 276 290 296 299 367 333 331 341 353 275 g64_m 690 200 262 207 197 228 277 999 g71_m 908 760 721 g71_m 910 458 868 979 400 133 284 332 428 214 590 g71_m 920 587 195 519 514 458 408 855 1227 404 1393 g71_m 930 492 775 775 716 829 642 759 430 422 332 g71_m 940 334 344 384 307 468 319 488 329 328 369 g71_m 950 338 444 378 330 249 279 402 263 275 279 g71_m 960 293 225 277 236 260 320 300 241 350 309 g71_m 970 319 263 299 290 293 268 366 385 350 313 g71_m 980 290 302 257 308 397 523 329 266 256 360 g71_m 990 353 411 402 380 362 329 290 377 393 450 g71_m 1000 340 347 340 331 302 336 366 364 389 321 g71_m 1010 248 295 303 406 303 299 228 287 259 298 g71_m 1020 209 229 324 294 352 273 277 301 365 247 g71_m 1030 390 385 312 262 355 318 352 429 345 342 g71_m 1040 343 353 309 329 408 999 g72_m 911 1282 1049 600 862 1055 229 472 221 461 g72_m 920 699 740 1110 688 389 508 735 849 295 677 g72_m 930 335 402 401 342 717 512 764 441 519 352 g72_m 940 450 473 470 405 436 379 531 437 476 578 g72_m 950 480 553 447 475 458 385 565 447 408 508 g72_m 960 460 359 416 334 460 558 449 348 482 387 g72_m 970 451 384 496 468 496 496 540 495 416 361 g72_m 980 385 426 363 343 535 695 470 416 398 486 g72_m 990 456 571 496 477 463 446 354 407 469 520 g72_m 1000 474 471 474 521 436 495 492 506 571 442 g72_m 1010 392 424 417 458 367 388 356 477 369 415 g72_m 1020 304 362 456 449 507 362 367 342 309 295 g72_m 1030 418 427 339 331 271 325 448 403 330 318 g72_m 1040 306 422 383 346 417 367 387 438 431 458 g72_m 1050 471 483 483 409 353 403 402 392 347 335 g72_m 1060 320 313 410 459 399 347 263 383 438 315 g72_m 1070 310 304 274 359 319 283 262 999 g73_m 646 2259 2542 2229 2175 g73_m 650 2378 2128 1992 1970 1917 2083 1850 1879 1713 1491 g73_m 660 1721 1744 1147 1548 1398 1498 1606 1505 1291 1099 g73_m 670 1158 1276 1346 1318 1428 1209 1067 1361 1260 1423 g73_m 680 1280 1108 1267 1186 1146 1143 735 770 944 824 g73_m 690 716 1007 839 967 912 1112 994 890 871 975 g73_m 700 938 1491 1148 1043 976 1167 1024 726 908 813 g73_m 710 834 766 749 583 643 782 851 813 722 888 g73_m 720 754 860 775 808 719 810 849 903 1102 930 g73_m 730 998 923 931 903 912 871 806 668 622 644 g73_m 740 865 772 800 732 746 811 896 784 625 636 g73_m 750 671 678 641 713 839 737 796 687 725 874 g73_m 760 699 738 707 650 686 757 681 602 706 794 g73_m 770 664 513 482 506 571 617 637 595 645 582 g73_m 780 560 575 670 620 505 562 541 584 527 580 g73_m 790 556 588 505 535 559 587 497 497 511 445 g73_m 800 436 448 465 367 472 384 352 313 338 290 g73_m 810 433 398 503 433 386 353 396 527 426 408 g73_m 820 429 300 307 285 282 279 238 241 308 192 g73_m 830 262 266 199 260 255 306 296 238 165 302 g73_m 840 307 289 297 268 281 275 242 283 324 253 g73_m 850 275 326 327 316 329 282 262 232 320 254 g73_m 860 239 219 277 256 301 267 291 281 200 254 g73_m 870 213 240 206 213 259 357 317 999 g74_m 771 936 286 281 940 731 610 1833 1453 1408 g74_m 780 1161 910 1112 1301 1011 1104 707 677 764 722 g74_m 790 705 765 619 880 1039 1180 802 1161 1292 1376 g74_m 800 1193 1018 954 880 1508 1614 1559 1287 940 1070 g74_m 810 1354 1236 1267 1400 1487 1145 1276 1428 1189 1181 g74_m 820 1253 851 1005 913 964 878 796 818 824 340 g74_m 830 630 697 688 767 1021 1108 1153 924 789 822 g74_m 840 996 939 835 848 920 894 799 740 759 796 g74_m 850 705 695 678 797 753 602 603 624 704 588 g74_m 860 517 501 524 537 523 486 508 563 603 633 g74_m 870 579 485 564 521 525 517 611 608 721 874 g74_m 880 937 606 727 555 626 771 848 818 828 838 g74_m 890 777 748 823 749 756 712 624 870 670 680 g74_m 900 762 865 870 823 715 756 853 759 969 914 g74_m 910 883 874 1044 1041 1032 811 1028 847 807 828 g74_m 920 660 617 557 564 570 437 464 422 558 518 g74_m 930 464 591 627 552 668 573 530 555 531 514 g74_m 940 423 539 607 560 543 596 561 523 683 741 g74_m 950 792 784 741 841 812 703 748 595 593 559 g74_m 960 655 589 624 516 688 797 778 657 726 739 g74_m 970 794 630 604 645 655 780 890 837 742 729 g74_m 980 761 744 793 834 927 1099 850 688 685 706 g74_m 990 712 776 717 923 854 701 694 777 712 800 g74_m 1000 614 781 772 901 659 818 727 687 680 881 g74_m 1010 745 983 1127 969 935 810 687 902 696 855 g74_m 1020 749 999 gli20_1m 879 226 gli20_1m 880 220 136 143 277 257 403 616 494 428 443 gli20_1m 890 423 295 238 640 848 1322 972 1717 1971 1839 gli20_1m 900 1381 1374 1305 1112 1311 1455 825 553 786 674 gli20_1m 910 720 754 757 857 977 953 1088 1060 642 863 gli20_1m 920 873 653 617 752 757 696 729 737 773 975 gli20_1m 930 744 845 856 837 758 668 814 779 866 678 gli20_1m 940 540 691 602 512 444 553 569 662 670 851 gli20_1m 950 836 1104 1007 961 696 537 715 496 513 473 gli20_1m 960 589 445 382 457 514 558 474 316 417 383 gli20_1m 970 322 256 237 300 229 291 331 358 447 445 gli20_1m 980 377 408 380 436 458 436 387 331 295 275 gli20_1m 990 329 385 311 362 316 272 296 248 257 195 gli20_1m1000 203 241 185 219 113 212 140 114 180 143 gli20_1m1010 148 158 128 107 85 82 74 111 80 122 gli20_1m1020 74 67 96 98 96 111 127 111 102 88 gli20_1m1030 169 193 183 209 158 138 150 148 144 98 gli20_1m1040 116 107 152 162 171 136 159 160 118 149 gli20_1m1050 196 138 156 138 141 105 135 142 145 146 gli20_1m1060 164 165 120 157 153 156 105 149 174 104 gli20_1m1070 119 96 109 98 90 74 67 48 55 86 gli20_1m1080 75 99 91 105 97 94 80 85 69 97 gli20_1m1090 92 100 124 142 128 157 147 120 146 140 gli20_1m1100 123 136 140 153 150 194 217 160 228 189 gli20_1m1110 238 170 160 191 234 138 154 148 103 116 gli20_1m1120 170 111 999 gli21_m 1136 1142 1110 1539 1310 gli21_m 1140 1203 1280 1483 1560 1250 1258 1081 657 921 1290 gli21_m 1150 1355 826 902 1151 927 839 901 997 991 1143 gli21_m 1160 1341 1516 1029 1030 906 781 642 651 689 784 gli21_m 1170 1039 850 594 761 674 913 970 765 709 758 gli21_m 1180 850 783 724 600 731 757 845 696 566 502 gli21_m 1190 476 473 600 505 571 734 549 611 638 599 gli21_m 1200 519 527 574 637 677 726 726 652 690 577 gli21_m 1210 674 521 543 456 413 453 542 444 408 435 gli21_m 1220 426 433 416 417 369 381 360 308 306 325 gli21_m 1230 328 358 305 312 332 292 279 395 393 466 gli21_m 1240 404 418 351 360 344 289 251 333 339 371 gli21_m 1250 348 335 356 298 256 357 217 391 271 376 gli21_m 1260 337 237 212 229 242 269 258 232 999 gli28_km 131 713 926 718 913 1025 676 1043 887 892 gli28_km 140 946 850 522 766 614 711 610 832 685 569 gli28_km 150 547 524 412 411 414 397 351 323 267 323 gli28_km 160 340 313 346 384 278 384 405 429 500 446 gli28_km 170 545 591 506 568 583 527 593 528 386 382 gli28_km 180 464 605 702 884 816 710 731 569 582 775 gli28_km 190 643 692 687 844 667 778 952 1133 1014 934 gli28_km 200 668 703 800 609 557 470 707 437 556 1007 gli28_km 210 1017 944 917 934 929 956 852 840 978 819 gli28_km 220 763 595 651 679 652 857 1094 1042 1127 1088 gli28_km 230 1061 1036 849 902 1169 1475 1253 952 959 1093 gli28_km 240 1161 1141 1073 1125 838 1009 880 877 1111 1322 gli28_km 250 1190 948 931 748 731 744 572 440 490 681 gli28_km 260 558 644 615 643 639 654 471 463 452 321 gli28_km 270 353 435 351 385 323 407 441 509 454 404 gli28_km 280 417 393 424 479 460 396 349 326 283 375 gli28_km 290 375 300 458 391 374 452 480 443 343 313 gli28_km 300 357 402 357 391 510 434 308 368 286 324 gli28_km 310 258 361 377 260 427 402 414 318 300 270 gli28_km 320 199 226 262 165 240 226 200 193 281 163 gli28_km 330 230 340 279 179 194 187 218 188 165 182 gli28_km 340 212 235 203 242 232 257 306 418 418 280 gli28_km 350 296 326 292 213 296 263 243 147 192 203 gli28_km 360 282 245 196 303 307 276 366 277 289 250 gli28_km 370 247 441 352 396 333 288 179 240 236 245 gli28_km 380 192 255 250 274 196 229 245 260 261 266 gli28_km 390 304 279 267 238 314 289 166 158 155 288 gli28_km 400 310 244 238 203 185 207 253 276 222 265 gli28_km 410 242 197 196 247 188 230 254 219 253 211 gli28_km 420 230 186 199 240 223 210 119 199 176 223 gli28_km 430 270 258 256 226 218 178 151 180 222 216 gli28_km 440 999 gli29_m 1514 930 746 652 506 672 637 gli29_m 1520 875 716 760 824 813 661 720 607 490 668 gli29_m 1530 574 836 886 815 809 630 611 672 786 880 gli29_m 1540 1487 1247 1092 907 1078 831 809 832 729 638 gli29_m 1550 734 1003 1136 1293 908 889 1142 966 834 873 gli29_m 1560 985 1319 1235 1057 927 664 720 695 669 671 gli29_m 1570 667 561 846 699 965 1053 718 600 636 414 gli29_m 1580 417 370 492 555 490 459 401 372 277 308 gli29_m 1590 369 265 250 300 278 209 115 77 115 153 gli29_m 1600 169 140 128 136 164 231 165 159 150 155 gli29_m 1610 176 211 249 319 199 222 266 196 349 308 gli29_m 1620 373 391 199 228 304 307 246 264 149 179 gli29_m 1630 129 137 167 185 262 347 358 338 417 152 gli29_m 1640 235 214 138 154 138 190 191 245 214 207 gli29_m 1650 178 228 193 193 176 427 999 gli37_m 504 2708 3448 4165 2410 2608 2363 gli37_m 510 2124 2352 1758 1756 1743 1803 1516 1740 2710 1811 gli37_m 520 1972 2059 2008 2698 2367 1618 1741 1970 1584 1262 gli37_m 530 1345 1315 1434 1617 1603 1475 1984 1657 1763 2037 gli37_m 540 1226 1663 1847 1592 1535 1418 1839 1720 2248 1292 gli37_m 550 1563 1205 1662 1203 1244 1315 1578 1365 1647 1410 gli37_m 560 1312 1190 1075 1125 992 975 991 903 1192 1471 gli37_m 570 1098 1077 1087 1069 1222 1165 1443 1469 1510 1335 gli37_m 580 1348 1198 1358 1215 1095 1001 1092 1590 1437 1090 gli37_m 590 780 893 784 992 848 745 793 755 832 496 gli37_m 600 790 701 863 879 882 1150 1028 939 910 977 gli37_m 610 876 996 980 1109 952 855 841 971 1136 1125 gli37_m 620 986 934 1040 796 855 736 693 529 695 742 gli37_m 630 544 603 531 670 717 542 504 708 570 558 gli37_m 640 572 548 497 999 gli38_m 796 1256 1154 1143 1291 gli38_m 800 1305 1154 1183 814 1356 1363 1469 1470 1819 1737 gli38_m 810 1592 1515 1515 1647 1020 734 750 700 780 719 gli38_m 820 776 600 596 491 553 535 495 457 324 304 gli38_m 830 526 585 515 575 468 198 291 385 308 562 gli38_m 840 870 835 1014 976 1237 1175 975 789 1118 925 gli38_m 850 1044 1160 1020 1082 976 769 971 937 903 751 gli38_m 860 773 909 743 837 798 723 593 829 709 774 gli38_m 870 840 815 953 952 884 927 741 818 1075 975 gli38_m 880 965 856 982 867 779 723 875 847 699 723 gli38_m 890 660 636 582 493 507 505 402 478 423 418 gli38_m 900 497 486 432 440 428 450 357 290 340 423 gli38_m 910 347 356 420 575 547 677 679 538 515 518 gli38_m 920 459 462 554 498 532 390 505 451 598 600 gli38_m 930 533 523 679 592 686 516 619 539 551 456 gli38_m 940 455 531 505 489 448 487 616 664 572 706 gli38_m 950 591 609 664 637 486 502 587 600 486 541 gli38_m 960 565 513 438 471 502 662 649 519 573 428 gli38_m 970 490 356 324 361 294 301 334 341 381 296 gli38_m 980 348 332 343 361 449 425 321 374 364 329 gli38_m 990 354 440 414 495 455 448 429 419 421 364 gli38_m 1000 332 376 355 348 351 372 405 401 402 389 gli38_m 1010 437 459 404 404 337 282 230 328 276 349 gli38_m 1020 298 244 296 248 240 240 268 241 295 238 gli38_m 1030 304 342 244 257 313 277 351 336 335 310 gli38_m 1040 221 273 240 168 299 300 315 286 354 383 gli38_m 1050 362 387 348 294 256 243 282 280 264 252 gli38_m 1060 329 271 334 321 360 306 249 235 290 255 gli38_m 1070 206 225 219 220 187 168 165 164 142 165 gli38_m 1080 196 217 199 221 216 184 257 266 233 188 gli38_m 1090 198 230 245 266 248 231 268 395 319 371 gli38_m 1100 306 307 370 282 352 392 331 281 332 372 gli38_m 1110 351 301 272 287 231 202 193 144 187 165 gli38_m 1120 162 138 193 175 154 172 202 169 205 177 gli38_m 1130 228 190 203 206 202 200 225 243 214 259 gli38_m 1140 176 185 216 196 225 287 195 160 195 224 gli38_m 1150 221 178 243 239 183 171 212 197 166 208 gli38_m 1160 233 268 194 169 163 127 138 138 130 138 gli38_m 1170 131 110 152 123 131 136 121 139 142 155 gli38_m 1180 152 144 142 143 120 150 151 116 86 86 gli38_m 1190 109 110 120 125 139 100 101 97 105 79 gli38_m 1200 109 123 87 142 108 177 160 123 126 144 gli38_m 1210 158 147 158 160 144 139 145 139 162 162 gli38_m 1220 155 124 135 137 147 153 135 105 130 124 gli38_m 1230 120 92 90 94 105 80 64 68 91 90 gli38_m 1240 100 103 107 108 124 99 105 100 93 129 gli38_m 1250 110 119 127 99 113 157 102 137 136 175 gli38_m 1260 116 86 83 100 69 104 75 90 131 134 gli38_m 1270 123 145 134 132 139 156 138 131 137 166 gli38_m 1280 114 127 131 130 104 93 102 104 130 140 gli38_m 1290 108 141 108 104 82 75 70 84 120 89 gli38_m 1300 999 gli40_m 1089 170 gli40_m 1090 240 199 205 270 274 284 263 271 304 340 gli40_m 1100 382 327 311 313 282 344 399 388 521 510 gli40_m 1110 374 382 365 435 269 392 455 356 511 564 gli40_m 1120 627 456 716 752 553 688 915 670 652 514 gli40_m 1130 612 512 612 635 691 739 819 1133 1179 1150 gli40_m 1140 1188 885 1167 1586 1650 1956 1925 1603 1491 2037 gli40_m 1150 2055 1384 1764 1742 1677 1600 1593 1535 1385 1386 gli40_m 1160 1633 1873 1528 1593 1333 1525 1195 1523 1596 1536 gli40_m 1170 1648 1545 1180 1301 1191 1557 1773 1289 1466 1590 gli40_m 1180 1516 1279 1264 1265 1473 1457 1331 1310 1167 1072 gli40_m 1190 1141 912 1086 1136 1270 1281 990 1067 1052 1099 gli40_m 1200 1071 1104 1203 1132 1006 1061 1130 975 1121 1085 gli40_m 1210 1018 1172 1087 964 957 892 965 813 780 1090 gli40_m 1220 855 926 917 924 1010 867 851 882 1007 760 gli40_m 1230 833 813 946 774 732 634 498 561 707 708 gli40_m 1240 769 835 804 991 792 944 819 935 906 766 gli40_m 1250 769 728 841 1012 781 959 608 802 728 635 gli40_m 1260 557 516 521 482 363 329 426 444 469 471 gli40_m 1270 460 523 555 525 553 541 427 549 486 616 gli40_m 1280 578 535 540 619 470 576 571 389 447 458 gli40_m 1290 491 480 446 405 415 464 377 512 525 414 gli40_m 1300 375 438 435 424 450 408 357 342 459 448 gli40_m 1310 476 492 590 624 474 466 405 503 425 372 gli40_m 1320 458 431 442 444 457 461 400 440 461 530 gli40_m 1330 488 343 574 488 542 451 370 339 290 270 gli40_m 1340 317 246 243 280 236 235 234 171 156 167 gli40_m 1350 176 183 192 163 200 164 177 198 179 211 gli40_m 1360 200 208 184 216 199 235 186 267 203 219 gli40_m 1370 243 260 177 218 221 213 209 173 251 259 gli40_m 1380 268 210 198 227 289 259 217 252 249 294 gli40_m 1390 250 259 999 gli41_m 1489 1011 gli41_m 1490 1493 1286 1076 852 1156 1124 1085 828 1201 1517 gli41_m 1500 1290 1141 1243 1395 1129 1241 1345 1504 1477 1546 gli41_m 1510 1485 1360 2015 1857 1369 1475 1612 1469 1941 1837 gli41_m 1520 1989 2145 1845 1438 1479 1449 1669 1567 1242 1773 gli41_m 1530 1664 1800 1638 1591 1636 1486 1301 1389 1435 1384 gli41_m 1540 1734 1271 1455 1509 1457 1675 1922 1785 1576 1282 gli41_m 1550 1264 1477 1518 1731 1541 1594 1806 1612 1584 1481 gli41_m 1560 1223 2085 2306 1743 1679 2022 1862 1601 1921 1806 gli41_m 1570 1787 1850 2214 1965 1560 1571 1294 1137 1301 1085 gli41_m 1580 983 1074 1087 1160 888 853 784 940 670 710 gli41_m 1590 638 540 597 480 381 294 247 283 275 323 gli41_m 1600 330 269 260 244 254 295 271 299 363 352 gli41_m 1610 407 518 534 688 750 712 688 655 685 734 gli41_m 1620 861 835 647 657 734 765 521 673 479 527 gli41_m 1630 372 425 420 535 518 603 681 763 935 664 gli41_m 1640 788 651 657 701 619 600 591 483 468 440 gli41_m 1650 429 420 409 406 306 411 369 276 206 298 gli41_m 1660 301 398 303 259 339 467 308 293 223 142 gli41_m 1670 157 205 173 178 999 gli48_m 1376 1500 1460 1546 1667 gli48_m 1380 1543 1617 1513 1427 1588 1267 1440 1484 1221 1541 gli48_m 1390 1403 1490 1308 1557 1393 1159 1198 1521 1355 1769 gli48_m 1400 1518 1488 1192 1351 1389 1516 1304 1286 1448 1612 gli48_m 1410 1832 1768 1850 1900 1828 1755 1486 1449 1451 1799 gli48_m 1420 1650 1895 1704 1660 1651 1773 1758 1806 1597 1832 gli48_m 1430 1730 1746 1533 1714 1751 1775 1543 1798 2192 1933 gli48_m 1440 1884 1601 2271 2126 1970 2065 1834 1852 1878 1472 gli48_m 1450 1447 1210 1048 1143 1143 949 924 970 843 815 gli48_m 1460 896 1270 1228 1178 1097 892 862 734 674 525 gli48_m 1470 684 790 731 783 1133 872 874 812 769 839 gli48_m 1480 911 773 695 858 885 766 887 1019 956 885 gli48_m 1490 838 823 863 736 854 761 704 604 810 954 gli48_m 1500 1017 1026 1091 1117 1127 1093 1293 1388 1214 1096 gli48_m 1510 1225 959 1078 1063 936 783 853 999 gp011_m 612 1340 1405 2170 1462 1245 1120 1857 3162 gp011_m 620 1435 1190 1025 540 692 797 762 670 1532 1405 gp011_m 630 1247 932 1537 1457 1570 1197 917 1353 1608 1531 gp011_m 640 1273 1473 2515 1660 1451 1470 1155 1425 1001 873 gp011_m 650 1021 1208 1543 951 1177 1728 1215 1001 931 835 gp011_m 660 773 748 601 635 649 797 939 562 697 646 gp011_m 670 739 828 875 775 1227 1099 750 851 655 790 gp011_m 680 815 562 698 550 859 812 543 444 385 425 gp011_m 690 245 392 352 211 260 321 236 222 260 252 gp011_m 700 273 336 416 409 338 475 500 360 522 529 gp011_m 710 555 358 470 335 198 455 317 451 400 406 gp011_m 720 526 512 381 358 351 330 408 411 578 433 gp011_m 730 566 490 418 380 380 420 361 321 258 286 gp011_m 740 332 260 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460 369 464 gp020_m 230 449 439 421 340 429 728 698 478 585 704 gp020_m 240 690 440 571 544 580 666 740 599 914 1249 gp020_m 250 1023 511 794 520 329 378 381 374 253 279 gp020_m 260 389 418 561 334 285 232 205 218 119 74 gp020_m 270 121 140 180 186 183 209 274 283 326 306 gp020_m 280 298 396 390 206 180 201 182 201 250 228 gp020_m 290 262 203 207 214 225 413 471 600 559 444 gp020_m 300 516 591 469 476 411 354 198 223 162 150 gp020_m 310 196 156 127 135 127 148 100 133 115 78 gp020_m 320 45 93 78 73 98 53 38 33 33 999 gp021_m 244 1018 1080 1280 1172 1791 2018 gp021_m 250 1674 758 1164 923 718 586 459 716 640 1090 gp021_m 260 838 1230 1578 1675 1361 1455 1240 1021 944 617 gp021_m 270 633 541 671 790 635 1136 1608 1806 1715 1544 gp021_m 280 1540 1851 1716 1403 2063 1467 1752 1968 1932 1954 gp021_m 290 1991 2038 2313 2109 2255 2502 2289 2346 1960 2040 gp021_m 300 1925 1638 1530 1552 1596 1271 1406 1601 1235 1387 gp021_m 310 1746 1638 1875 1838 2095 2186 1954 2046 1935 1960 gp021_m 320 1540 1668 1506 1064 1468 1156 1022 1025 910 960 gp021_m 330 785 999 gp025_km1063 1028 1522 2212 2107 1507 1826 1967 gp025_km1070 2107 1946 1630 2200 1880 2341 2468 2173 2665 2823 gp025_km1080 2542 2915 2572 2492 2418 2455 2897 2762 2737 3256 gp025_km1090 2921 2607 2457 2620 1855 2153 2261 2058 1943 2073 gp025_km1100 2066 2091 2372 2211 2453 2438 2650 2245 2302 2916 gp025_km1110 2577 2713 2098 2651 2233 1797 2261 1742 1923 1641 gp025_km1120 2266 2083 2010 1276 1332 1928 1845 1796 1860 1457 gp025_km1130 1277 1100 1110 1251 1461 1430 1377 1566 1397 1575 gp025_km1140 1555 1703 1667 1526 1179 1359 1346 1055 1361 1708 gp025_km1150 1425 1035 1330 1818 1630 1436 1640 1875 1588 1741 gp025_km1160 999 gp026_m 933 680 582 865 515 490 470 367 gp026_m 940 377 257 360 365 507 485 630 710 847 928 gp026_m 950 1253 1267 1466 1765 1285 986 1946 1841 2527 2697 gp026_m 960 2681 1915 1631 2197 2655 2441 2290 2280 2583 2482 gp026_m 970 2940 2055 1873 1948 1940 2224 1899 1724 1695 2752 gp026_m 980 2312 2597 3069 2779 2974 3114 2904 2552 2801 2957 gp026_m 990 2645 2915 2695 2989 1836 1633 1991 1865 1443 1902 gp026_m 1000 1766 1948 2123 2521 2085 2632 2201 1536 1910 2358 gp026_m 1010 2123 2048 2157 1993 1035 1280 1138 1346 1201 1562 gp026_m 1020 983 1105 1444 1737 1920 1503 1523 1121 1380 1087 gp026_m 1030 1718 2033 1387 1302 1200 1142 989 1327 1032 780 gp026_m 1040 688 623 742 885 1159 843 1066 1143 923 1102 gp026_m 1050 1177 831 921 682 557 534 449 466 483 578 gp026_m 1060 603 593 589 698 819 639 499 560 582 384 gp026_m 1070 343 308 278 280 250 168 206 192 225 230 gp026_m 1080 257 351 340 366 450 278 187 233 154 202 gp026_m 1090 170 123 161 206 185 193 151 158 146 141 gp026_m 1100 181 128 165 145 115 116 168 125 148 113 gp026_m 1110 163 311 251 260 302 202 167 137 80 207 gp026_m 1120 132 100 85 130 165 110 100 75 999 gp059_m 239 569 gp059_m 240 704 1011 1059 1266 1150 1494 1603 1545 2143 2185 gp059_m 250 2128 729 1155 1070 1038 1378 1014 1040 816 1036 gp059_m 260 694 1356 1483 1339 1432 1285 1346 1249 1083 725 gp059_m 270 1082 1065 972 1084 1283 1617 1663 1839 2127 1913 gp059_m 280 2152 1990 1962 1907 1735 1588 1710 1500 1490 1681 gp059_m 290 1584 1525 1630 1404 1488 1583 1777 1554 1551 1257 gp059_m 300 1157 1249 966 1361 1361 1288 1207 1314 838 1250 gp059_m 310 1538 1260 1157 994 1349 1314 1223 1169 1372 1349 gp059_m 320 1147 1267 1087 991 1170 804 596 516 739 594 gp059_m 330 505 499 506 329 425 999 gp061_m 62 713 863 1243 1315 1535 1750 2513 2495 gp061_m 70 2488 1355 628 725 1685 1473 1233 900 1053 1025 gp061_m 80 1055 918 1190 972 1078 992 1368 1158 1990 1737 gp061_m 90 1783 2218 1730 1578 1537 1293 1210 1175 1003 1130 gp061_m 100 1118 1258 1188 1405 1353 1330 1088 1268 1225 790 gp061_m 110 935 1151 908 645 950 729 919 828 575 543 gp061_m 120 573 811 796 694 484 504 504 606 670 759 gp061_m 130 756 638 814 688 714 784 643 760 859 795 gp061_m 140 935 1057 1233 1358 767 857 670 957 698 683 gp061_m 150 762 963 685 568 515 407 337 427 423 385 gp061_m 160 372 432 357 542 402 380 510 510 568 528 gp061_m 170 625 630 575 510 380 523 490 393 360 173 gp061_m 180 190 265 155 225 245 195 205 75 50 50 gp061_m 190 70 60 65 999 gp062_m 225 533 635 493 540 597 gp062_m 230 700 690 670 1120 1670 1643 2063 1433 1625 1803 gp062_m 240 2100 2053 2143 2205 1665 1755 2055 2058 1928 2365 gp062_m 250 1815 1078 1330 1413 1393 1993 1253 1547 1248 1190 gp062_m 260 1125 1643 1902 1730 1912 2018 1993 1408 1010 915 gp062_m 270 970 778 783 1090 1333 1730 1805 1595 1885 1743 gp062_m 280 1755 1590 1040 950 970 900 805 900 880 895 gp062_m 290 575 999 gp090_m 643 1565 1500 2075 1550 1725 1415 1690 gp090_m 650 2175 2207 2193 1423 2090 2335 1743 1438 1796 1575 gp090_m 660 1426 1325 1348 1605 2070 2196 2730 2068 1913 2048 gp090_m 670 1918 2385 2381 2290 2423 2575 2081 2595 1707 1903 gp090_m 680 2191 2096 2486 1947 2292 2381 2037 1853 1267 1308 gp090_m 690 746 1263 1317 1385 1597 2288 1403 1286 1022 1061 gp090_m 700 980 1745 2463 1920 1392 1973 1787 1108 2230 1525 gp090_m 710 1508 1212 1481 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gp109_m 750 375 280 295 300 325 435 425 260 450 490 gp109_m 760 425 495 600 565 645 555 999 gp115_1m 63 222 175 150 175 240 273 220 gp115_1m 70 272 266 360 316 382 348 256 150 128 68 gp115_1m 80 75 77 81 77 73 85 152 257 346 327 gp115_1m 90 308 353 333 361 283 262 282 255 293 313 gp115_1m 100 342 446 432 370 328 306 255 250 260 257 gp115_1m 110 302 315 213 191 275 213 290 287 230 358 gp115_1m 120 265 321 327 280 203 237 325 348 317 311 gp115_1m 130 280 262 347 322 336 455 345 356 368 313 gp115_1m 140 390 433 432 410 226 277 211 238 211 200 gp115_1m 150 261 356 165 145 107 140 163 156 92 95 gp115_1m 160 73 81 103 171 250 276 235 235 323 213 gp115_1m 170 317 266 226 323 351 307 310 260 402 217 gp115_1m 180 327 347 350 451 377 300 233 155 125 101 gp115_1m 190 51 999 gp115_2m 219 182 gp115_2m 220 252 258 313 225 201 178 216 188 181 195 gp115_2m 230 166 163 206 212 213 250 281 362 470 496 gp115_2m 240 545 540 803 867 733 880 751 655 846 967 gp115_2m 250 856 506 887 1105 816 978 808 1025 870 986 gp115_2m 260 843 1103 1147 870 740 663 838 928 672 545 gp115_2m 270 984 1055 1106 1163 1323 1594 1869 1848 1929 1653 gp115_2m 280 1870 1681 2019 1852 1384 1321 1363 1151 1155 1544 gp115_2m 290 1339 1458 1688 1276 1199 1411 1687 1463 1290 1046 gp115_2m 300 1094 1129 1077 1698 1488 1886 1848 1968 1381 1888 gp115_2m 310 2038 1808 1670 1533 2363 2131 1858 1746 2111 2055 gp115_2m 320 1706 1815 1436 1245 1603 1121 750 725 1010 738 gp115_2m 330 833 811 891 665 713 367 999 gp141_m 989 610 gp141_m 990 758 735 635 1039 844 1157 1087 1141 1069 1185 gp141_m 1000 1355 1632 1756 1929 1371 1793 1575 1278 1781 1952 gp141_m 1010 1286 1416 1317 1765 1286 1230 1090 1480 1397 1210 gp141_m 1020 973 1173 1644 1538 1308 1468 1418 1343 1026 1186 gp141_m 1030 1331 1575 1284 1233 1236 1030 1262 1190 861 882 gp141_m 1040 920 1457 1327 1182 1224 1018 1152 1314 1158 1099 gp141_m 1050 1577 1187 1100 817 920 861 923 1028 917 982 gp141_m 1060 976 1023 817 787 957 913 784 1008 1108 837 gp141_m 1070 849 804 683 682 643 545 531 581 472 523 gp141_m 1080 624 500 475 592 716 808 651 696 559 851 gp141_m 1090 638 520 719 572 554 647 670 663 745 819 gp141_m 1100 764 727 611 690 753 1027 929 931 852 1007 gp141_m 1110 767 803 796 780 658 674 675 690 622 704 gp141_m 1120 857 805 662 727 712 721 632 647 641 431 gp141_m 1130 515 530 455 404 440 419 440 593 851 862 gp141_m 1140 831 752 766 600 602 641 556 370 571 550 gp141_m 1150 498 248 235 200 237 149 180 166 127 221 gp141_m 1160 287 264 322 415 464 365 127 192 223 199 gp141_m 1170 497 254 252 999 gp60100m -1 437 gp60100m 0 580 782 827 687 330 590 540 600 562 490 gp60100m 10 246 240 270 379 533 505 426 611 635 522 gp60100m 20 639 515 619 545 563 421 545 502 660 683 gp60100m 30 729 850 644 801 851 1116 1017 957 1074 1228 gp60100m 40 1114 1227 1343 1364 1202 1268 1214 1148 1171 858 gp60100m 50 619 676 903 888 901 1169 1082 758 991 878 gp60100m 60 767 723 726 851 885 858 785 808 737 665 gp60100m 70 594 521 721 643 564 536 534 305 342 179 gp60100m 80 367 384 528 532 549 496 646 631 558 599 gp60100m 90 569 596 520 607 468 386 477 428 447 553 gp60100m 100 763 860 777 995 1206 1148 876 927 979 690 gp60100m 110 639 949 916 686 1143 807 882 834 677 856 gp60100m 120 817 924 884 737 525 671 638 734 743 936 gp60100m 130 711 826 802 902 838 809 642 758 1147 1046 gp60100m 140 969 1192 1068 1054 879 904 949 1508 1503 1223 gp60100m 150 1507 1680 1560 1490 1553 1102 901 1765 2075 1615 gp60100m 160 1895 2400 1305 2630 1600 999 gx40_km 1022 1895 1965 1692 1340 1221 1132 1529 1517 gx40_km 1030 2078 2684 1976 2338 2126 2011 1700 1509 1203 1084 gx40_km 1040 1028 1337 1387 1370 1465 1260 1300 1164 1068 1193 gx40_km 1050 1157 860 975 774 734 724 759 747 768 998 gx40_km 1060 1064 943 1049 1020 947 860 656 847 818 695 gx40_km 1070 737 705 514 679 593 532 522 515 566 647 gx40_km 1080 751 804 739 786 855 789 764 727 665 724 gx40_km 1090 603 618 704 670 621 556 679 905 775 759 gx40_km 1100 706 742 807 734 764 811 795 651 659 784 gx40_km 1110 714 1018 783 798 712 691 616 561 510 578 gx40_km 1120 629 531 632 678 544 667 551 529 479 395 gx40_km 1130 441 519 511 442 426 498 433 457 468 525 gx40_km 1140 518 538 647 999 koa12_m 159 944 koa12_m 160 821 915 651 1154 874 1024 619 805 929 691 koa12_m 170 789 912 951 1110 1170 1143 1002 928 937 806 koa12_m 180 1161 1237 1004 805 864 819 808 660 828 998 koa12_m 190 832 856 970 975 930 924 995 1049 1093 1113 koa12_m 200 846 880 1064 1266 1085 875 753 560 717 903 koa12_m 210 801 745 780 767 750 710 696 885 868 709 koa12_m 220 799 674 815 721 753 751 677 692 599 689 koa12_m 230 706 803 763 757 887 1075 838 653 692 972 koa12_m 240 1003 693 814 688 612 738 681 625 690 672 koa12_m 250 677 400 562 559 605 893 576 733 447 523 koa12_m 260 423 498 474 328 247 297 257 265 238 208 koa12_m 270 209 200 225 266 252 284 255 348 309 383 koa12_m 280 447 568 587 587 618 631 526 484 464 481 koa12_m 290 437 475 553 561 562 513 571 472 449 475 koa12_m 300 472 470 383 378 354 351 273 238 217 275 koa12_m 310 280 285 269 249 288 188 115 118 216 178 koa12_m 320 167 999 koa29_m 142 805 748 615 543 672 918 699 784 koa29_m 150 772 758 313 591 734 794 672 667 793 907 koa29_m 160 953 1038 983 1284 1111 980 1254 1032 907 678 koa29_m 170 794 765 793 771 786 752 811 816 845 768 koa29_m 180 1057 1256 1316 1062 1095 1056 1152 982 988 1307 koa29_m 190 1033 1144 1259 1221 1137 1253 1158 1053 1010 974 koa29_m 200 820 932 1132 940 1097 976 877 652 684 896 koa29_m 210 799 797 779 899 710 711 731 767 660 504 koa29_m 220 551 633 786 608 717 736 708 718 805 892 koa29_m 230 851 785 670 743 824 818 880 698 808 703 koa29_m 240 601 520 720 598 572 813 765 690 624 711 koa29_m 250 717 494 631 607 509 639 667 739 390 466 koa29_m 260 558 626 710 588 562 513 542 483 391 260 koa29_m 270 346 348 445 455 413 438 589 588 557 608 koa29_m 280 648 999 koa32_m 172 463 401 320 409 444 354 434 315 koa32_m 180 413 521 450 528 538 623 546 508 645 722 koa32_m 190 811 921 837 750 947 1074 1201 1360 1471 966 koa32_m 200 674 780 727 592 655 583 572 517 871 1000 koa32_m 210 944 927 927 900 892 1092 1038 1004 996 1134 koa32_m 220 1264 1120 1227 1315 1369 1080 1285 1367 1277 1327 koa32_m 230 1273 1279 1055 1297 1762 2188 1749 1364 1613 2302 koa32_m 240 1895 1348 1628 1493 1345 1908 1755 1760 1947 2259 koa32_m 250 1615 1172 1336 1502 1480 1827 1555 1621 1339 1399 koa32_m 260 1209 1710 2067 2046 1896 1601 1573 1258 1085 954 koa32_m 270 983 993 1018 1079 951 1204 1563 1620 1417 1196 koa32_m 280 1467 1554 1803 1484 1389 1385 1390 1336 1290 1362 koa32_m 290 1219 985 1438 1330 1322 1244 1193 1276 1219 905 koa32_m 300 1014 1028 807 774 831 1011 956 745 702 802 koa32_m 310 763 899 1008 820 843 999 lfs00_m 336 150 177 136 177 lfs00_m 340 182 161 242 276 263 356 355 392 376 376 lfs00_m 350 319 372 279 343 234 290 318 45 39 46 lfs00_m 360 77 90 122 128 132 107 160 154 184 184 lfs00_m 370 166 178 220 277 220 243 151 216 247 283 lfs00_m 380 250 186 289 218 250 209 212 261 156 153 lfs00_m 390 137 186 203 196 238 236 100 192 216 222 lfs00_m 400 308 284 288 294 301 353 436 363 391 309 lfs00_m 410 360 332 250 294 257 286 281 332 356 323 lfs00_m 420 352 316 278 257 281 280 256 276 242 279 lfs00_m 430 325 320 310 373 325 280 260 279 245 187 lfs00_m 440 243 250 271 285 308 260 127 265 154 140 lfs00_m 450 237 139 194 212 250 166 260 302 306 261 lfs00_m 460 283 305 348 314 303 198 313 273 267 302 lfs00_m 470 269 318 286 337 209 247 149 215 196 191 lfs00_m 480 306 355 237 189 259 381 296 307 259 335 lfs00_m 490 306 327 295 276 340 113 149 193 148 261 lfs00_m 500 227 177 124 280 119 214 322 203 999 lfs01_m 1158 835 1277 lfs01_m 1160 1548 1584 1028 923 709 803 707 863 889 960 lfs01_m 1170 1045 800 735 813 658 797 841 695 691 652 lfs01_m 1180 754 675 626 453 472 441 566 466 299 371 lfs01_m 1190 343 336 334 301 330 288 212 166 228 216 lfs01_m 1200 268 320 319 363 417 418 427 305 369 386 lfs01_m 1210 431 625 514 485 419 460 362 337 465 502 lfs01_m 1220 434 543 567 570 697 699 744 630 588 617 lfs01_m 1230 676 531 395 322 289 253 237 287 409 397 lfs01_m 1240 444 536 554 727 690 590 605 591 620 525 lfs01_m 1250 550 596 504 608 495 773 622 645 635 1010 lfs01_m 1260 1048 615 668 569 475 442 608 451 509 597 lfs01_m 1270 572 625 599 538 584 514 447 555 318 321 lfs01_m 1280 283 296 281 256 222 256 338 215 192 163 lfs01_m 1290 153 127 107 78 95 74 81 119 100 84 lfs01_m 1300 98 123 97 143 121 137 112 84 102 134 lfs01_m 1310 94 99 117 126 110 115 113 78 53 77 lfs01_m 1320 67 52 30 49 83 102 117 94 125 121 lfs01_m 1330 91 91 136 129 104 79 110 107 82 999 lfs03_m 1282 1185 1107 1193 1282 1000 877 1159 976 lfs03_m 1290 876 711 670 526 469 510 515 701 525 417 lfs03_m 1300 510 579 554 623 453 453 486 520 664 725 lfs03_m 1310 776 1014 1073 1165 966 931 861 1130 1221 1233 lfs03_m 1320 1516 1551 1480 1865 1859 1606 1464 1357 1196 1161 lfs03_m 1330 881 663 1122 1383 1202 1045 816 1070 890 917 lfs03_m 1340 1057 864 742 820 592 675 509 499 429 405 lfs03_m 1350 392 294 304 361 370 365 326 288 366 376 lfs03_m 1360 403 485 306 376 340 419 309 281 325 310 lfs03_m 1370 295 364 470 413 370 402 372 335 272 283 lfs03_m 1380 262 263 309 283 399 426 386 322 249 227 lfs03_m 1390 219 257 117 252 205 148 155 226 169 187 lfs03_m 1400 187 203 247 254 243 230 234 225 194 222 lfs03_m 1410 163 152 259 315 188 216 212 294 363 333 lfs03_m 1420 323 370 339 337 424 467 455 365 421 285 lfs03_m 1430 148 283 335 350 489 459 388 343 285 395 lfs03_m 1440 338 329 424 348 491 426 446 404 404 289 lfs03_m 1450 347 324 277 347 358 215 169 171 210 140 lfs03_m 1460 181 241 172 150 159 116 131 158 103 101 lfs03_m 1470 152 38 68 81 141 74 123 127 63 90 lfs03_m 1480 999 lfs12_m 949 792 lfs12_m 950 675 927 795 1001 739 741 933 828 917 1002 lfs12_m 960 1154 1029 798 923 1181 1174 971 920 1144 1123 lfs12_m 970 1039 916 913 894 926 988 772 780 712 790 lfs12_m 980 678 751 1069 951 942 993 985 1008 1031 993 lfs12_m 990 886 917 771 966 707 663 723 523 441 554 lfs12_m 1000 415 496 560 524 412 523 442 367 561 605 lfs12_m 1010 674 572 467 522 371 502 315 463 471 596 lfs12_m 1020 353 480 635 688 584 691 768 647 788 454 lfs12_m 1030 728 881 632 742 768 744 658 617 652 543 lfs12_m 1040 437 476 561 460 524 407 478 499 487 495 lfs12_m 1050 521 405 397 338 355 403 391 372 373 473 lfs12_m 1060 495 476 445 463 533 605 576 725 781 862 lfs12_m 1070 712 571 432 470 579 566 396 328 999 maza01_m1090 1997 1590 1164 1674 1078 1030 1148 1684 1404 1851 maza01_m1100 1719 1547 1867 2004 1822 1707 2109 2016 1664 2089 maza01_m1110 1826 1989 1674 1568 1569 1555 1496 1448 1485 1473 maza01_m1120 1577 1512 1519 2135 1691 2181 1846 1694 1783 1686 maza01_m1130 1884 1514 1345 1453 1589 1467 1461 1852 1697 1694 maza01_m1140 1542 1264 1139 1348 1306 1215 1599 1156 1394 1726 maza01_m1150 1715 1153 886 1404 1331 1358 1232 1299 1235 1134 maza01_m1160 1425 1440 1209 1119 1060 1079 1188 1322 1403 1544 maza01_m1170 1604 1458 1364 1193 748 563 763 794 800 718 maza01_m1180 747 848 957 906 1030 1200 1120 944 943 1046 maza01_m1190 933 814 798 911 700 894 953 758 483 453 maza01_m1200 324 443 425 570 483 673 790 767 833 709 maza01_m1210 802 971 1015 956 996 869 928 705 815 767 maza01_m1220 824 792 663 604 512 375 999 maza02_m1148 1393 1610 maza02_m1150 1590 958 729 1098 1089 1078 852 966 928 980 maza02_m1160 1237 1292 1030 1073 863 880 938 963 981 1156 maza02_m1170 1251 1115 879 1042 583 575 586 642 500 577 maza02_m1180 534 639 642 656 630 737 694 601 538 651 maza02_m1190 586 566 566 529 526 542 541 503 381 423 maza02_m1200 342 415 433 657 666 860 1061 832 1003 815 maza02_m1210 882 990 961 819 830 859 909 679 706 815 maza02_m1220 956 832 838 696 607 653 621 440 547 688 maza02_m1230 663 652 545 501 470 478 267 999 maza04_m1167 1219 1466 1587 maza04_m1170 1479 1210 923 438 227 324 287 205 189 163 maza04_m1180 160 154 218 230 366 453 373 377 427 626 maza04_m1190 564 591 545 450 506 621 644 578 425 399 maza04_m1200 351 404 614 691 587 653 738 739 893 916 maza04_m1210 1167 1427 1331 1142 1135 985 1101 1101 1048 1177 maza04_m1220 1348 1282 1262 1062 1188 1518 1346 1009 1033 1072 maza04_m1230 1005 1032 1071 884 1027 1071 836 732 1028 979 maza04_m1240 1045 1038 838 919 777 826 829 1161 1294 1071 maza04_m1250 662 620 597 653 396 606 522 569 543 492 maza04_m1260 594 609 791 695 644 501 633 452 525 695 maza04_m1270 529 595 555 574 662 404 310 337 248 339 maza04_m1280 341 219 163 119 112 135 123 96 136 185 maza04_m1290 206 176 174 144 154 283 272 236 190 171 maza04_m1300 155 114 138 110 140 112 93 87 79 124 maza04_m1310 75 145 153 133 113 136 73 999 maza05_m1144 996 1280 1293 900 1268 1534 maza05_m1150 1409 888 767 1547 1587 1413 1391 1190 1336 1168 maza05_m1160 1327 1496 1531 1579 1441 1555 1381 1583 1412 1243 maza05_m1170 1384 1296 1184 983 625 631 791 610 811 847 maza05_m1180 772 907 895 832 932 868 791 860 867 836 maza05_m1190 831 816 633 550 502 566 484 500 409 201 maza05_m1200 217 347 535 690 726 699 757 757 887 1152 maza05_m1210 1134 1138 955 966 816 740 842 714 675 851 maza05_m1220 888 922 900 719 867 982 828 705 843 945 maza05_m1230 810 802 822 700 671 760 600 656 827 832 maza05_m1240 766 764 751 901 1002 813 829 1120 1089 745 maza05_m1250 635 513 640 746 537 779 621 661 612 568 maza05_m1260 701 613 718 514 466 435 617 399 492 603 maza05_m1270 476 513 459 421 557 485 342 385 252 384 maza05_m1280 315 228 212 148 126 192 194 225 199 214 maza05_m1290 321 286 256 245 164 228 999 maza06km1202 601 632 597 682 706 686 1011 1023 maza06km1210 998 1014 1253 1176 1500 1442 1043 828 964 1179 maza06km1220 1020 1015 1197 978 1104 830 766 714 642 530 maza06km1230 486 466 702 923 976 989 808 851 1307 971 maza06km1240 878 1115 949 1088 852 841 983 1150 865 838 maza06km1250 588 542 586 891 615 717 479 422 428 414 maza06km1260 359 296 431 539 641 421 516 455 516 652 maza06km1270 473 613 518 547 632 531 476 473 347 286 maza06km1280 253 268 387 402 406 727 779 710 645 696 maza06km1290 601 584 339 320 447 539 400 521 554 681 maza06km1300 581 717 782 999 mazb33_m1224 766 1132 964 1010 915 970 mazb33_m1230 1320 1075 1169 1018 1081 1234 1008 1112 1668 1494 mazb33_m1240 1566 1269 1096 1205 1006 864 857 994 771 819 mazb33_m1250 798 848 1002 1144 767 1117 1018 1045 950 914 mazb33_m1260 903 731 677 771 721 770 1094 956 1127 1184 mazb33_m1270 1121 1045 1100 980 1188 881 676 746 615 632 mazb33_m1280 642 532 555 432 406 496 399 307 363 454 mazb33_m1290 427 427 551 398 429 467 491 555 477 433 mazb33_m1300 357 382 470 490 435 485 493 364 439 472 mazb33_m1310 462 511 427 515 432 304 334 391 433 367 mazb33_m1320 409 323 379 336 408 381 350 378 433 304 mazb33_m1330 279 198 243 209 247 200 187 187 114 146 mazb33_m1340 154 153 116 111 118 95 85 100 108 169 mazb33_m1350 173 131 175 999 mazb34_m1355 2354 3004 2594 2740 3293 mazb34_m1360 2969 3073 2715 2499 2214 2009 1524 1567 1400 1376 mazb34_m1370 1401 1259 1389 1508 1604 1347 1433 1504 1530 1472 mazb34_m1380 1524 1363 1368 1612 1463 1312 1626 1325 1649 1792 mazb34_m1390 1612 1566 1809 1420 1386 1300 1449 1509 1305 1314 mazb34_m1400 1337 1209 1394 1795 1564 1169 1036 1106 1107 1111 mazb34_m1410 908 1045 1000 1058 919 930 980 940 1083 918 mazb34_m1420 933 972 904 873 901 868 754 822 939 834 mazb34_m1430 744 834 865 944 724 946 726 680 614 830 mazb34_m1440 793 760 1038 1112 1045 941 822 1020 827 741 mazb34_m1450 742 778 760 635 589 625 479 503 453 550 mazb34_m1460 540 590 459 402 999 mazb37_m1211 1476 1405 1508 1420 1371 1296 1319 1220 1446 mazb37_m1220 1422 1232 1315 1113 947 1064 1019 801 765 864 mazb37_m1230 822 644 803 778 755 845 753 799 1300 1025 mazb37_m1240 865 748 667 898 769 869 911 1044 920 970 mazb37_m1250 764 705 771 691 539 852 896 995 822 765 mazb37_m1260 694 631 564 568 570 652 768 575 708 714 mazb37_m1270 575 629 685 544 611 491 349 384 354 405 mazb37_m1280 389 317 330 216 296 283 242 209 265 322 mazb37_m1290 301 244 307 245 205 292 284 304 252 282 mazb37_m1300 230 244 300 253 243 254 278 206 210 225 mazb37_m1310 230 285 279 370 300 196 215 267 303 272 mazb37_m1320 262 238 276 274 354 377 387 330 328 272 mazb37_m1330 276 214 229 216 289 278 249 261 157 207 mazb37_m1340 188 201 190 176 153 180 136 147 169 192 mazb37_m1350 229 209 259 255 259 215 247 327 340 389 mazb37_m1360 438 403 349 350 296 332 282 343 306 263 mazb37_m1370 248 307 280 274 202 196 269 245 255 204 mazb37_m1380 264 251 231 186 294 322 247 212 166 210 mazb37_m1390 303 287 245 281 200 196 218 265 248 311 mazb37_m1400 246 279 227 325 288 264 198 244 222 228 mazb37_m1410 206 220 999 mazb45_m1144 1530 1510 1827 1067 1215 1655 mazb45_m1150 1533 851 735 1123 1181 1028 881 1024 942 875 mazb45_m1160 1504 1334 1220 1415 975 1027 887 850 896 886 mazb45_m1170 1176 895 834 802 594 635 816 1122 942 1021 mazb45_m1180 893 1076 1031 870 787 1014 988 802 802 855 mazb45_m1190 788 895 939 875 850 1050 719 597 583 618 mazb45_m1200 594 612 589 726 722 805 926 789 910 889 mazb45_m1210 1013 1048 1092 1060 1148 1022 1252 1114 1180 1262 mazb45_m1220 1158 1021 1079 1022 898 1135 1179 941 970 907 mazb45_m1230 933 748 679 898 989 1225 1066 1263 1764 1404 mazb45_m1240 1372 1454 1014 1216 999 mazb47_m 559 1827 mazb47_m 560 2168 2087 1660 1818 1623 1452 1545 1682 1558 1819 mazb47_m 570 1756 1615 1734 1444 1721 1650 1669 1842 2068 1490 mazb47_m 580 1486 1671 1949 1684 1469 1288 1409 1669 1525 1448 mazb47_m 590 1538 1364 1391 1580 1432 1449 1430 1201 1072 1125 mazb47_m 600 1247 857 1258 1173 1256 1328 1393 1422 1540 1797 mazb47_m 610 1072 1057 823 1126 1045 985 1041 1061 1347 1465 mazb47_m 620 1093 1171 1325 875 999 mazb48km1174 748 800 1084 867 815 931 mazb48km1180 816 899 1063 1100 986 916 907 680 538 643 mazb48km1190 681 601 577 555 517 646 554 558 594 746 mazb48km1200 814 725 728 726 827 956 1103 692 853 706 mazb48km1210 815 805 755 614 678 672 656 631 689 838 mazb48km1220 840 736 708 559 786 986 858 765 727 655 mazb48km1230 727 542 553 538 607 633 662 420 940 857 mazb48km1240 889 803 606 762 563 614 573 806 901 768 mazb48km1250 664 552 582 672 583 686 663 697 762 624 mazb48km1260 577 488 545 497 341 419 500 535 616 574 mazb48km1270 456 544 550 509 788 566 532 522 512 467 mazb48km1280 460 320 343 293 316 398 415 410 476 458 mazb48km1290 493 434 641 506 929 1119 1268 1171 923 738 mazb48km1300 490 593 548 473 383 423 533 535 474 445 mazb48km1310 548 475 453 684 593 565 543 649 710 659 mazb48km1320 699 656 701 758 835 604 523 726 649 477 mazb48km1330 387 291 484 472 481 415 571 697 453 405 mazb48km1340 426 407 354 378 359 474 365 362 344 413 mazb48km1350 426 481 544 505 999 mazb55_m1260 1812 1557 1565 2223 2093 1228 1846 1661 2476 2879 mazb55_m1270 1659 1997 2081 2347 2700 1755 1174 1695 689 1039 mazb55_m1280 954 1232 726 713 1083 1394 1528 1128 1497 1349 mazb55_m1290 1602 929 1342 1230 1566 2073 1449 1879 1916 2207 mazb55_m1300 1682 1810 2547 1302 1408 1622 2001 1777 1696 1534 mazb55_m1310 1641 1404 1490 2329 1932 1295 1237 1506 1297 1472 mazb55_m1320 1878 1903 1940 1490 1848 1806 1820 1914 2228 1858 mazb55_m1330 1805 1175 1886 1540 1811 1559 1248 1441 1459 1630 mazb55_m1340 2151 2110 1669 999 mazb56km 711 543 414 347 316 391 393 327 323 321 mazb56km 720 314 397 398 297 296 363 451 435 532 587 mazb56km 730 419 483 608 552 427 475 603 591 502 456 mazb56km 740 384 453 493 472 441 488 437 433 377 313 mazb56km 750 323 327 399 513 380 424 370 346 396 443 mazb56km 760 379 450 473 355 292 217 252 294 301 272 mazb56km 770 282 287 240 272 256 306 418 398 405 352 mazb56km 780 435 511 572 564 405 370 410 449 429 465 mazb56km 790 414 393 317 263 222 296 228 202 190 202 mazb56km 800 208 215 230 222 247 173 152 106 112 103 mazb56km 810 131 135 143 184 203 154 198 291 293 247 mazb56km 820 293 298 270 255 234 149 150 118 143 145 mazb56km 830 190 177 165 193 207 241 208 144 112 150 mazb56km 840 141 130 203 180 207 193 192 194 184 151 mazb56km 850 207 256 193 188 220 224 238 205 225 228 mazb56km 860 211 191 253 216 244 224 231 241 226 246 mazb56km 870 189 224 241 221 227 193 230 224 270 252 mazb56km 880 269 311 294 289 203 270 271 245 208 179 mazb56km 890 209 173 185 164 279 231 234 295 259 222 mazb56km 900 283 330 290 413 290 999 mazb57_m1072 832 789 987 1112 1151 923 1726 1848 mazb57_m1080 1330 1174 996 1203 1130 1161 953 1172 1014 1191 mazb57_m1090 1092 731 856 772 1145 1390 1179 1460 1362 1807 mazb57_m1100 2048 1600 1589 1021 1442 1763 2443 1767 1633 1374 mazb57_m1110 1356 1995 1137 1040 704 743 816 816 772 800 mazb57_m1120 734 555 618 1166 1412 1123 1197 1476 1357 939 mazb57_m1130 1169 1404 1309 1431 1398 1285 934 1194 1335 1315 mazb57_m1140 1097 1220 1377 1166 1022 951 1016 694 867 1237 mazb57_m1150 1136 733 649 1027 1025 1035 974 1169 870 898 mazb57_m1160 1491 1630 1342 1172 1007 1047 989 1054 820 900 mazb57_m1170 994 822 827 821 617 680 920 1106 676 765 mazb57_m1180 637 717 747 718 549 636 668 633 751 863 mazb57_m1190 638 627 668 669 620 597 524 393 334 453 mazb57_m1200 476 494 427 529 580 615 665 422 398 316 mazb57_m1210 539 318 278 271 269 999 mazb59_m1064 1359 1814 1675 1248 2100 2081 mazb59_m1070 2179 2119 1605 1810 1643 1714 1879 1425 1686 2125 mazb59_m1080 2021 2014 1783 1575 1881 1826 1531 1415 1468 1834 mazb59_m1090 1332 1019 790 858 953 1119 1141 1318 1030 1064 mazb59_m1100 1041 1041 957 1127 997 1064 1053 1048 944 1074 mazb59_m1110 900 957 707 635 544 653 733 728 708 902 mazb59_m1120 893 718 562 933 1090 721 1101 1090 903 658 mazb59_m1130 928 1158 870 914 1019 902 593 697 911 812 mazb59_m1140 761 843 1091 866 800 857 879 530 891 890 mazb59_m1150 904 624 597 681 757 725 724 640 625 726 mazb59_m1160 982 1073 1022 1093 1016 935 763 775 645 864 mazb59_m1170 951 693 865 849 557 573 940 1284 1062 970 mazb59_m1180 874 886 861 790 614 728 712 585 529 724 mazb59_m1190 636 593 579 551 482 432 346 243 248 238 mazb59_m1200 178 249 229 417 345 605 605 456 354 281 mazb59_m1210 448 391 343 416 450 470 437 536 489 604 mazb59_m1220 607 646 624 602 541 845 617 535 560 593 mazb59_m1230 546 435 375 378 331 362 291 360 589 619 mazb59_m1240 615 590 462 408 396 367 452 419 352 426 mazb59_m1250 335 324 407 448 507 618 483 539 618 999 mazb60_m 548 891 793 mazb60_m 550 1002 842 1217 1098 1059 1246 1446 1738 1592 1730 mazb60_m 560 1509 1832 1926 1945 1420 1222 1309 1655 1671 1996 mazb60_m 570 1943 1798 1706 1477 1669 1615 1260 1194 1491 1302 mazb60_m 580 1009 1011 1372 1316 1290 1235 1167 1219 1149 1015 mazb60_m 590 1026 863 936 945 820 1085 946 906 640 679 mazb60_m 600 747 811 854 750 863 884 790 810 930 1071 mazb60_m 610 996 980 833 919 1002 1104 931 910 1225 1250 mazb60_m 620 930 825 1038 836 808 914 838 825 981 783 mazb60_m 630 864 720 675 632 783 716 564 656 657 737 mazb60_m 640 539 537 615 554 628 715 605 555 620 656 mazb60_m 650 1066 1174 998 871 733 773 738 777 999 mazb61km 621 650 798 777 876 1013 881 794 840 767 mazb61km 630 706 574 656 616 613 580 510 692 570 566 mazb61km 640 473 479 504 502 415 439 466 355 324 318 mazb61km 650 297 297 285 260 316 418 413 357 299 349 mazb61km 660 292 296 272 200 279 295 424 300 460 508 mazb61km 670 499 429 324 326 427 378 314 221 219 231 mazb61km 680 270 266 233 257 366 347 300 273 226 223 mazb61km 690 173 228 350 351 309 353 389 346 364 396 mazb61km 700 312 507 409 468 452 451 587 483 381 485 mazb61km 710 546 380 314 328 272 368 381 393 405 396 mazb61km 720 614 646 516 410 411 407 396 459 393 285 mazb61km 730 330 320 373 385 244 259 290 261 188 233 mazb61km 740 242 274 302 304 257 323 382 374 242 195 mazb61km 750 241 234 216 246 198 223 228 220 210 219 mazb61km 760 228 238 260 214 227 244 259 319 300 366 mazb61km 770 355 342 291 293 233 294 281 360 268 249 mazb61km 780 261 264 285 247 325 269 325 344 331 340 mazb61km 790 400 441 451 384 293 351 235 208 235 187 mazb61km 800 222 206 246 235 263 204 178 150 191 211 mazb61km 810 231 201 228 287 270 275 395 370 403 368 mazb61km 820 372 334 341 346 340 306 265 218 276 275 mazb61km 830 313 347 296 295 359 353 371 232 184 206 mazb61km 840 205 184 194 203 224 218 186 242 249 241 mazb61km 850 263 324 278 224 266 228 258 258 999 mazb70_m -43 378 320 304 mazb70_m -40 226 265 437 474 461 544 615 766 672 485 mazb70_m -30 461 596 608 622 802 704 651 609 749 581 mazb70_m -20 680 573 556 438 441 376 480 412 376 359 mazb70_m -10 299 317 302 231 200 327 345 397 457 580 mazb70_m 0 535 365 300 331 442 501 478 464 430 369 mazb70_m 10 415 344 333 331 327 304 295 296 228 158 mazb70_m 20 149 96 118 115 115 201 241 252 280 222 mazb70_m 30 281 238 249 283 362 438 370 383 337 411 mazb70_m 40 323 285 336 288 280 290 392 365 393 298 mazb70_m 50 415 363 462 464 435 438 390 362 389 373 mazb70_m 60 465 494 470 607 651 525 502 510 438 361 mazb70_m 70 357 416 460 429 443 472 562 511 521 458 mazb70_m 80 526 458 545 591 488 487 512 512 575 541 mazb70_m 90 448 452 999 mazc03_m1112 1654 1670 1512 2168 1723 1881 2112 1740 mazc03_m1120 1914 1371 1432 2042 1511 1789 1675 1421 1140 1091 mazc03_m1130 1216 1173 980 974 701 615 599 556 707 651 mazc03_m1140 832 608 682 695 853 946 1008 867 1062 1379 mazc03_m1150 1250 939 858 1358 1201 1044 1299 1162 960 883 mazc03_m1160 1104 1015 642 674 634 613 454 445 457 576 mazc03_m1170 511 396 430 352 215 162 310 436 419 280 mazc03_m1180 332 266 320 307 252 357 406 326 267 345 mazc03_m1190 374 370 472 415 309 208 239 240 164 224 mazc03_m1200 255 216 256 366 319 477 429 362 344 284 mazc03_m1210 388 334 394 389 414 438 344 524 525 596 mazc03_m1220 695 639 645 548 654 809 773 461 690 639 mazc03_m1230 676 522 464 422 439 409 566 614 732 729 mazc03_m1240 936 873 859 996 902 1010 938 990 922 719 mazc03_m1250 601 532 756 998 838 994 944 826 759 677 mazc03_m1260 572 291 288 307 286 306 312 287 398 334 mazc03_m1270 251 210 208 193 132 999 mazc04_m1088 827 1111 mazc04_m1090 1546 1541 1646 2367 2379 2502 2795 2860 2779 3313 mazc04_m1100 3015 2369 2381 1664 1961 1905 1860 1767 1463 1997 mazc04_m1110 1605 1520 1326 1352 1314 1224 1400 1944 2421 2157 mazc04_m1120 2835 2268 2673 3113 2320 2517 2212 2193 1698 1228 mazc04_m1130 1512 1553 1477 1357 1034 756 724 747 841 789 mazc04_m1140 873 900 1196 1229 1367 1661 1361 1099 1477 2168 mazc04_m1150 1875 1390 1682 2354 2493 2271 2818 2502 2060 1946 mazc04_m1160 1743 1780 1283 1260 1220 981 817 800 787 780 mazc04_m1170 772 748 682 533 383 435 421 635 917 646 mazc04_m1180 801 790 677 637 504 592 582 534 507 479 mazc04_m1190 392 393 258 397 371 195 283 303 239 214 mazc04_m1200 277 307 257 380 450 583 604 488 442 528 mazc04_m1210 561 626 766 774 782 872 920 861 936 996 mazc04_m1220 994 927 907 749 713 808 765 736 718 917 mazc04_m1230 962 826 994 1208 1174 1114 1098 1031 1239 1118 mazc04_m1240 1062 1142 875 922 859 923 920 952 975 788 mazc04_m1250 593 583 683 775 557 920 1226 1493 1427 1432 mazc04_m1260 1177 1227 1127 1034 1051 1209 1267 825 1087 1140 mazc04_m1270 992 1277 999 mazc05_m 837 1617 1703 1981 mazc05_m 840 2147 1978 2143 1977 2244 2052 2113 2409 1987 1465 mazc05_m 850 1571 1617 1410 1570 1159 1037 1607 1312 1707 1255 mazc05_m 860 1364 1441 1362 1293 1631 998 830 1011 996 1025 mazc05_m 870 899 968 1204 1097 1171 1225 1177 866 1204 1076 mazc05_m 880 1173 1329 1397 1094 754 846 856 924 838 465 mazc05_m 890 763 734 574 459 580 495 448 624 603 443 mazc05_m 900 446 470 457 535 450 457 456 402 544 662 mazc05_m 910 624 716 772 852 809 844 877 799 627 665 mazc05_m 920 686 659 812 654 763 594 679 575 761 853 mazc05_m 930 704 692 823 585 556 483 506 549 444 345 mazc05_m 940 308 470 280 350 327 559 431 489 537 492 mazc05_m 950 588 505 504 417 411 356 354 299 312 258 mazc05_m 960 301 291 202 259 333 283 242 184 194 249 mazc05_m 970 188 174 137 171 196 999 mazc06_m1367 952 610 586 mazc06_m1370 829 673 806 425 372 467 957 1247 971 1037 mazc06_m1380 1102 1503 751 1311 1447 1242 1156 1032 785 807 mazc06_m1390 792 922 764 926 910 981 961 994 993 908 mazc06_m1400 970 1162 1246 1322 1222 1243 735 966 924 881 mazc06_m1410 975 964 778 1005 1019 1104 893 952 878 1008 mazc06_m1420 1102 1052 1090 1061 1193 1112 970 914 866 807 mazc06_m1430 593 711 864 975 1070 911 732 805 885 865 mazc06_m1440 1015 938 969 896 832 768 759 863 778 829 mazc06_m1450 689 714 779 889 894 874 689 645 674 654 mazc06_m1460 717 857 693 590 610 553 441 515 468 348 mazc06_m1470 441 428 428 529 732 641 533 530 629 614 mazc06_m1480 671 699 564 495 632 451 494 660 568 624 mazc06_m1490 536 564 747 560 597 728 741 505 686 859 mazc06_m1500 754 981 840 772 783 754 631 560 612 588 mazc06_m1510 609 551 803 559 702 627 629 707 788 665 mazc06_m1520 790 691 603 525 473 532 476 461 500 422 mazc06_m1530 363 367 392 297 287 326 203 258 302 332 mazc06_m1540 343 275 153 233 308 264 279 261 376 303 mazc06_m1550 235 247 268 227 222 207 269 213 195 200 mazc06_m1560 202 161 126 112 163 135 183 116 270 216 mazc06_m1570 212 188 225 200 193 299 162 211 215 170 mazc06_m1580 201 150 218 201 250 215 208 155 112 99 mazc06_m1590 184 111 106 121 156 128 100 159 150 150 mazc06_m1600 145 158 103 198 227 200 144 120 167 125 mazc06_m1610 198 197 99 183 170 152 197 200 117 136 mazc06_m1620 110 162 119 115 108 88 145 107 114 121 mazc06_m1630 61 49 40 70 143 80 99 124 76 56 mazc06_m1640 108 105 89 82 66 103 95 112 111 149 mazc06_m1650 58 105 99 85 152 161 122 128 140 107 mazc06_m1660 119 219 146 123 101 105 136 156 176 196 mazc06_m1670 88 149 154 130 121 100 186 92 107 97 mazc06_m1680 83 85 177 148 116 100 110 100 98 110 mazc06_m1690 84 73 60 67 70 94 25 88 62 70 mazc06_m1700 54 75 108 113 96 89 120 82 67 80 mazc06_m1710 127 92 133 80 85 91 92 48 85 97 mazc06_m1720 198 126 159 65 153 130 130 99 65 130 mazc06_m1730 113 100 112 147 143 98 59 131 136 145 mazc06_m1740 117 109 140 87 68 72 108 113 145 83 mazc06_m1750 43 45 123 71 85 99 95 83 71 61 mazc06_m1760 72 78 999 mazc09_m 196 1296 1316 1157 902 mazc09_m 200 760 620 638 668 623 764 758 728 837 752 mazc09_m 210 517 590 590 609 554 442 397 493 344 319 mazc09_m 220 318 307 452 353 479 517 455 467 386 381 mazc09_m 230 320 355 317 248 337 233 280 223 211 195 mazc09_m 240 270 222 263 210 188 252 313 262 342 312 mazc09_m 250 334 292 322 323 391 330 357 402 348 351 mazc09_m 260 350 381 470 379 330 353 295 305 281 262 mazc09_m 270 268 322 348 414 317 337 466 619 499 456 mazc09_m 280 445 431 459 407 495 477 411 378 431 409 mazc09_m 290 383 372 377 244 301 303 263 343 223 224 mazc09_m 300 254 277 284 306 313 277 324 297 278 274 mazc09_m 310 262 320 298 343 365 346 297 353 330 348 mazc09_m 320 327 391 404 364 383 412 324 273 329 338 mazc09_m 330 307 269 253 236 247 272 269 322 243 278 mazc09_m 340 244 361 313 253 276 309 327 309 308 201 mazc09_m 350 231 238 279 281 217 233 246 239 260 319 mazc09_m 360 251 342 295 307 298 261 328 342 316 234 mazc09_m 370 226 302 314 283 276 372 232 368 319 395 mazc09_m 380 335 303 333 368 290 263 278 372 254 234 mazc09_m 390 215 196 252 283 237 201 192 288 261 247 mazc09_m 400 363 274 288 326 298 352 328 292 324 303 mazc09_m 410 237 256 276 231 206 143 227 189 242 219 mazc09_m 420 283 239 221 221 182 190 167 146 144 172 mazc09_m 430 205 214 242 299 368 338 278 400 405 330 mazc09_m 440 343 390 387 424 437 364 340 352 342 262 mazc09_m 450 368 336 332 390 336 383 389 402 338 322 mazc09_m 460 999 mazc10km 278 353 438 mazc10km 280 395 347 478 388 455 458 542 524 508 716 mazc10km 290 550 495 678 344 492 446 620 521 506 461 mazc10km 300 465 675 552 606 804 673 805 560 533 476 mazc10km 310 585 568 509 645 687 555 569 524 489 497 mazc10km 320 511 555 412 519 508 703 611 551 693 608 mazc10km 330 682 870 825 529 665 596 786 909 777 1179 mazc10km 340 1269 1124 1180 1018 918 866 992 938 823 611 mazc10km 350 803 666 667 668 646 702 495 602 545 676 mazc10km 360 820 724 726 731 520 437 555 576 627 529 mazc10km 370 621 939 974 1060 917 1378 996 1147 810 980 mazc10km 380 968 632 982 835 734 720 725 766 609 512 mazc10km 390 510 673 540 528 502 667 601 927 743 662 mazc10km 400 849 762 681 707 907 766 909 909 912 944 mazc10km 410 775 664 684 849 468 607 596 784 768 848 mazc10km 420 717 599 591 453 523 513 477 447 447 571 mazc10km 430 620 465 693 592 569 655 632 690 616 554 mazc10km 440 637 587 457 493 483 463 391 556 490 422 mazc10km 450 506 452 522 421 534 560 460 468 444 452 mazc10km 460 606 514 355 478 437 435 436 371 346 403 mazc10km 470 312 336 260 269 141 220 242 249 243 311 mazc10km 480 364 370 392 370 481 379 340 385 344 405 mazc10km 490 414 411 365 354 423 310 252 259 271 231 mazc10km 500 167 195 162 203 205 219 273 232 268 238 mazc10km 510 206 194 157 215 193 201 198 252 295 311 mazc10km 520 330 438 318 293 373 322 227 287 237 186 mazc10km 530 253 289 311 330 384 394 309 232 209 198 mazc10km 540 234 285 313 234 304 221 308 303 248 216 mazc10km 550 196 233 319 245 277 298 380 380 371 371 mazc10km 560 427 347 279 285 226 274 261 262 225 286 mazc10km 570 411 276 307 281 395 285 380 341 333 288 mazc10km 580 310 228 263 267 266 240 195 208 193 171 mazc10km 590 166 167 154 140 166 131 164 141 117 191 mazc10km 600 209 117 120 123 117 111 155 126 167 194 mazc10km 610 200 252 138 164 169 159 208 159 156 246 mazc10km 620 155 118 146 113 130 136 168 156 174 999 mazc13_m 210 308 502 402 412 463 376 348 250 228 244 mazc13_m 220 240 271 305 243 304 375 321 348 332 306 mazc13_m 230 270 294 230 193 194 176 224 176 203 260 mazc13_m 240 257 233 268 158 166 179 253 262 300 295 mazc13_m 250 314 249 318 260 291 295 308 296 276 289 mazc13_m 260 205 348 341 276 218 268 187 309 221 261 mazc13_m 270 248 289 333 356 249 293 316 275 268 268 mazc13_m 280 219 330 342 332 384 366 401 380 342 297 mazc13_m 290 345 277 279 227 220 263 265 243 220 206 mazc13_m 300 250 231 200 219 294 241 279 274 264 251 mazc13_m 310 248 311 361 339 359 340 270 288 297 333 mazc13_m 320 307 306 302 287 350 337 241 218 274 242 mazc13_m 330 309 373 360 292 308 283 321 383 371 400 mazc13_m 340 387 363 394 362 339 335 400 404 390 346 mazc13_m 350 378 334 304 427 322 374 334 354 343 346 mazc13_m 360 374 429 447 437 340 285 323 364 333 324 mazc13_m 370 334 429 525 475 431 575 388 471 378 477 mazc13_m 380 522 423 422 390 320 389 407 399 375 427 mazc13_m 390 385 389 337 372 405 369 335 336 365 346 mazc13_m 400 437 318 309 321 287 249 273 315 237 297 mazc13_m 410 253 293 306 218 263 194 266 266 291 285 mazc13_m 420 278 265 188 214 241 224 175 186 223 219 mazc13_m 430 269 196 243 248 304 256 199 274 305 237 mazc13_m 440 268 277 303 252 282 260 295 338 271 286 mazc13_m 450 320 264 221 332 313 250 237 234 206 225 mazc13_m 460 262 216 194 220 236 227 226 246 193 257 mazc13_m 470 204 168 172 156 123 102 89 123 137 139 mazc13_m 480 200 223 166 137 164 247 134 190 219 245 mazc13_m 490 265 244 246 221 222 218 174 186 164 170 mazc13_m 500 124 119 110 166 114 156 153 109 130 166 mazc13_m 510 142 113 133 149 95 97 111 124 120 141 mazc13_m 520 134 142 118 162 164 155 131 130 61 143 mazc13_m 530 146 126 170 174 169 123 153 149 190 201 mazc13_m 540 222 160 174 118 160 135 183 155 140 114 mazc13_m 550 149 188 175 122 167 172 165 152 221 222 mazc13_m 560 227 186 125 216 192 208 229 185 251 296 mazc13_m 570 283 296 312 311 370 307 402 472 490 374 mazc13_m 580 388 381 460 426 402 317 313 310 339 355 mazc13_m 590 367 332 279 390 417 411 373 424 340 387 mazc13_m 600 284 315 347 295 369 489 432 298 412 473 mazc13_m 610 382 478 431 462 541 450 389 491 439 428 mazc13_m 620 328 446 410 357 494 533 392 356 401 340 mazc13_m 630 330 298 305 261 404 307 350 416 483 382 mazc13_m 640 347 410 387 401 468 380 264 279 273 275 mazc13_m 650 324 373 348 316 296 377 340 384 274 266 mazc13_m 660 231 275 252 220 278 442 463 454 429 436 mazc13_m 670 373 439 368 397 410 385 303 354 253 388 mazc13_m 680 286 322 313 320 258 223 113 180 154 174 mazc13_m 690 87 169 205 233 227 383 220 203 254 204 mazc13_m 700 245 275 213 282 999 maze02_m 873 2791 2889 3366 2845 2705 2978 2798 maze02_m 880 3019 3153 3330 2654 2404 2277 2147 2276 1814 1572 maze02_m 890 1239 1290 1187 1025 1055 988 964 1165 1065 888 maze02_m 900 1063 1204 1277 1284 1189 1389 1359 1138 1103 1137 maze02_m 910 843 992 1174 1301 1337 1572 1355 1106 997 1173 maze02_m 920 1053 1159 1248 1025 1205 1127 1262 873 930 851 maze02_m 930 716 607 635 672 556 545 593 446 489 393 maze02_m 940 272 567 461 515 478 679 607 591 1012 753 maze02_m 950 999 maze03_m 255 1539 1545 1868 1608 2029 maze03_m 260 1501 2201 2307 1675 1631 1915 1477 1788 1319 1552 maze03_m 270 1712 2012 2519 2222 2687 2493 3318 2601 2785 2529 maze03_m 280 2910 2624 2964 2833 2439 2452 2470 2713 2370 2950 maze03_m 290 2438 2486 2207 2105 2208 2193 2435 1624 1861 1623 maze03_m 300 1716 2029 1670 1982 1900 1743 1972 1458 1215 1208 maze03_m 310 1372 1383 1610 1379 1531 1630 1180 1408 1655 1693 maze03_m 320 1409 1320 1375 1337 1681 1756 1200 1203 1557 1274 maze03_m 330 1211 1295 1153 1057 1051 790 940 1165 873 856 maze03_m 340 1016 1296 1111 1078 988 1054 1388 1287 1174 777 maze03_m 350 835 667 591 807 691 656 657 629 546 600 maze03_m 360 693 675 654 739 609 562 673 867 690 584 maze03_m 370 503 634 726 729 779 997 547 880 547 717 maze03_m 380 849 575 646 619 457 515 545 552 523 559 maze03_m 390 385 518 543 611 714 742 577 693 681 674 maze03_m 400 716 472 476 531 521 467 406 500 469 421 maze03_m 410 431 445 457 413 369 399 464 414 457 485 maze03_m 420 605 536 554 533 705 686 549 557 645 649 maze03_m 430 634 458 502 581 782 711 535 706 937 658 maze03_m 440 620 603 540 537 538 436 389 528 512 376 maze03_m 450 427 458 371 406 479 477 367 271 226 205 maze03_m 460 254 157 165 177 158 202 153 129 155 189 maze03_m 470 131 137 122 132 120 113 86 118 125 147 maze03_m 480 217 260 168 191 175 244 202 189 154 193 maze03_m 490 198 224 187 151 199 181 129 146 130 94 maze03_m 500 85 72 66 99 57 80 93 69 87 118 maze03_m 510 113 89 98 97 60 66 69 76 58 51 maze03_m 520 71 87 87 80 78 95 99 100 106 130 maze03_m 530 182 150 144 116 116 155 226 172 99 101 maze03_m 540 136 114 105 122 155 152 127 125 115 104 maze03_m 550 140 168 147 171 196 170 203 173 999 maze04km1548 3061 2790 maze04km1550 2672 2843 2700 2932 2671 2293 2975 2562 2368 2441 maze04km1560 2198 2316 2663 1830 2076 2329 2189 2562 2713 2256 maze04km1570 2170 1970 2048 1892 1815 1938 2015 1924 1945 1995 maze04km1580 1579 2061 2120 2706 2200 1867 1782 1724 1318 1425 maze04km1590 1465 1164 971 1115 1089 1053 1096 1216 1171 1047 maze04km1600 738 752 688 845 1038 990 864 756 883 880 maze04km1610 1150 1169 1157 1147 1378 1658 1331 1364 1207 1170 maze04km1620 1179 1229 1148 1254 1126 1131 966 934 610 842 maze04km1630 710 913 788 784 926 853 1042 1058 988 941 maze04km1640 971 865 834 905 899 871 857 616 672 731 maze04km1650 733 641 694 657 631 516 582 414 405 478 maze04km1660 475 452 472 548 999 maze10_m 567 1281 1207 1306 maze10_m 570 1142 1173 1428 1201 1323 1094 1261 967 1319 1007 maze10_m 580 1167 974 1229 995 1076 1142 1077 973 1153 1071 maze10_m 590 1136 1308 961 1125 763 861 994 1140 750 1027 maze10_m 600 632 870 810 603 604 538 815 693 729 689 maze10_m 610 617 782 574 748 873 714 595 560 740 837 maze10_m 620 636 666 671 602 775 804 887 659 789 822 maze10_m 630 880 690 705 745 757 651 618 779 562 638 maze10_m 640 589 630 837 530 545 598 701 741 693 697 maze10_m 650 755 721 682 646 549 559 545 544 531 549 maze10_m 660 744 516 518 568 407 530 590 540 503 551 maze10_m 670 456 634 507 527 483 554 590 658 999 maze11_m1737 2249 2572 2348 maze11_m1740 2532 1354 1223 1629 1307 1557 1643 1343 1461 1332 maze11_m1750 1145 1099 1139 1009 1061 1099 1216 1535 1164 1379 maze11_m1760 1587 1213 1531 1425 1474 1154 1116 1127 947 1053 maze11_m1770 973 919 909 877 833 1165 1145 963 1061 925 maze11_m1780 936 1236 892 1101 785 522 378 236 229 172 maze11_m1790 236 326 220 214 241 336 333 321 321 284 maze11_m1800 235 268 332 261 296 193 219 304 284 260 maze11_m1810 245 333 448 384 430 358 398 448 395 400 maze11_m1820 999 maze19_m1146 2400 2385 2358 2820 maze19_m1150 2887 1799 2217 3169 2845 2611 2546 2793 2984 2585 maze19_m1160 2754 3128 2497 2408 2021 2345 2125 1806 1792 1889 maze19_m1170 1748 1600 1444 1512 1134 1313 1578 1636 1560 1653 maze19_m1180 1533 1470 1670 1704 1798 2145 1600 1685 1456 1370 maze19_m1190 1217 1140 1124 910 961 1068 969 1093 1066 1099 maze19_m1200 997 1146 968 1168 1203 1135 1109 918 1097 1048 maze19_m1210 958 1090 923 888 822 886 934 825 948 1229 maze19_m1220 1143 1097 977 939 1006 1062 994 802 859 923 maze19_m1230 1133 663 530 440 395 421 394 440 466 533 maze19_m1240 567 545 510 598 538 574 631 622 621 615 maze19_m1250 567 520 580 596 545 518 576 709 999 maze20_m 671 2070 1973 1993 1992 1659 1564 1952 1453 1641 maze20_m 680 1888 1710 1980 2095 2097 2230 1555 1515 1594 1535 maze20_m 690 1181 2167 1611 1739 1615 1801 1648 1471 1594 1354 maze20_m 700 1098 1748 1452 1282 1205 1784 1694 1112 1508 1356 maze20_m 710 1433 1290 1320 1288 1316 1519 1346 1102 926 1310 maze20_m 720 1405 1119 1409 1547 1115 1176 1157 1103 1485 1248 maze20_m 730 1185 1400 1237 1126 1318 1298 1277 1134 1089 1205 maze20_m 740 1209 1439 1394 1062 1155 1529 1306 1280 1099 983 maze20_m 750 1283 1131 1204 1419 1183 1543 1427 935 1237 1345 maze20_m 760 1269 1247 1087 1356 1197 1434 1300 1081 1061 1079 maze20_m 770 1056 1023 1133 832 904 984 831 992 1027 784 maze20_m 780 877 914 1064 1052 985 938 925 845 739 865 maze20_m 790 786 914 780 797 685 635 549 675 645 740 maze20_m 800 578 702 770 562 728 644 636 522 534 407 maze20_m 810 615 533 661 771 657 520 500 734 727 786 maze20_m 820 786 745 671 548 542 439 382 361 534 407 maze20_m 830 516 575 462 523 481 529 639 569 490 557 maze20_m 840 608 582 591 558 632 592 597 444 595 510 maze20_m 850 680 754 553 579 546 506 592 527 554 453 maze20_m 860 374 437 493 441 511 395 437 529 473 545 maze20_m 870 505 526 538 485 487 588 521 340 581 441 maze20_m 880 561 558 598 675 483 579 489 467 465 603 maze20_m 890 999 maze24_m 123 1732 1952 2198 2301 2272 2896 2850 maze24_m 130 2277 2683 2294 1559 2320 2103 1849 1977 1327 1920 maze24_m 140 1826 1647 2072 2154 1588 2242 1686 2365 2175 2214 maze24_m 150 1563 1864 1774 1904 2056 1471 1347 1940 1561 1206 maze24_m 160 1163 1329 1308 1561 1354 1364 1382 1480 1436 1003 maze24_m 170 1326 1048 820 1109 832 988 1023 1104 1106 857 maze24_m 180 902 1318 1394 1574 1291 1417 1364 1323 1446 1579 maze24_m 190 1577 1763 1623 1557 1421 1430 1632 1652 1528 1452 maze24_m 200 1126 1323 1121 1035 954 976 986 987 1048 1181 maze24_m 210 972 1134 1152 1164 1145 1114 968 1143 892 577 maze24_m 220 620 648 807 604 757 866 483 560 583 476 maze24_m 230 474 462 347 367 490 502 462 406 354 404 maze24_m 240 402 341 508 358 448 565 638 721 611 737 maze24_m 250 563 494 462 509 648 376 494 497 405 487 maze24_m 260 439 408 435 356 376 416 261 309 182 178 maze24_m 270 205 227 254 282 186 233 276 365 360 367 maze24_m 280 293 370 384 254 326 376 382 299 349 318 maze24_m 290 258 250 210 209 223 271 221 299 241 155 maze24_m 300 241 299 306 269 289 199 253 153 142 118 maze24_m 310 168 194 174 194 187 141 138 173 150 140 maze24_m 320 141 149 169 181 216 245 163 153 172 146 maze24_m 330 152 164 205 184 215 267 355 325 264 275 maze24_m 340 226 392 412 429 350 404 438 503 435 263 maze24_m 350 371 337 388 441 296 340 296 292 328 340 maze24_m 360 280 425 370 425 378 290 280 167 172 108 maze24_m 370 190 255 261 225 212 305 157 358 221 264 maze24_m 380 248 169 271 245 186 211 200 218 159 194 maze24_m 390 167 247 231 208 210 224 247 234 218 189 maze24_m 400 238 220 243 213 258 197 999 maze28_m1151 1138 996 2237 2408 2689 2835 2291 2063 2124 maze28_m1160 2119 2570 2552 2437 2033 1765 1844 1122 1257 1870 maze28_m1170 2392 1648 1602 1218 1001 1083 1482 1664 1296 1136 maze28_m1180 1305 1157 1126 991 994 1192 1309 1227 1521 1472 maze28_m1190 1259 1333 1297 1301 1491 1399 1286 1169 1024 949 maze28_m1200 1050 1427 1290 1207 1258 1375 1409 1027 1305 1085 maze28_m1210 1096 877 775 741 791 800 746 695 793 858 maze28_m1220 1091 1037 998 969 929 1039 982 824 877 1035 maze28_m1230 1130 797 719 649 602 586 589 639 860 835 maze28_m1240 926 1025 794 918 794 808 715 846 926 806 maze28_m1250 754 717 838 806 571 881 806 883 844 851 maze28_m1260 924 802 739 778 513 641 752 598 670 750 maze28_m1270 801 818 730 661 777 646 533 668 541 723 maze28_m1280 709 587 619 445 400 633 534 427 584 572 maze28_m1290 487 423 497 402 507 573 540 665 540 488 maze28_m1300 482 518 547 467 555 702 644 764 694 617 maze28_m1310 573 566 532 808 616 461 429 437 548 515 maze28_m1320 575 604 694 535 717 946 797 806 811 771 maze28_m1330 666 284 489 560 447 368 330 324 218 264 maze28_m1340 315 315 347 217 188 164 98 122 48 144 maze28_m1350 126 146 189 184 292 271 481 498 418 436 maze28_m1360 403 431 396 361 359 498 442 442 403 432 maze28_m1370 383 518 740 860 646 625 685 818 773 829 maze28_m1380 900 877 846 660 1221 1268 1312 805 678 897 maze28_m1390 965 943 745 960 911 981 652 846 909 768 maze28_m1400 822 925 906 1040 836 990 676 975 984 997 maze28_m1410 913 785 906 1084 863 894 858 670 910 1054 maze28_m1420 916 1052 819 720 970 897 746 735 734 608 maze28_m1430 635 605 753 746 823 772 699 770 609 860 maze28_m1440 692 603 882 576 651 587 424 519 633 642 maze28_m1450 455 525 616 717 486 486 543 599 649 517 maze28_m1460 630 581 540 560 497 479 286 233 214 214 maze28_m1470 214 156 229 231 235 208 183 160 185 176 maze28_m1480 329 261 268 273 326 224 228 266 233 315 maze28_m1490 205 172 183 187 161 216 278 204 267 268 maze28_m1500 331 371 341 456 437 407 379 324 302 274 maze28_m1510 296 258 233 277 225 250 307 357 351 358 maze28_m1520 288 345 316 355 303 369 352 379 352 362 maze28_m1530 278 303 248 233 338 325 999 maze32_m1336 714 721 637 789 maze32_m1340 877 907 1136 1102 869 1048 915 713 586 978 maze32_m1350 740 633 670 595 828 817 1079 1693 1574 1575 maze32_m1360 1432 1364 1170 1448 1553 1631 1461 1665 1414 1278 maze32_m1370 1342 1481 1491 1200 1041 1032 916 974 1227 1127 maze32_m1380 1225 1436 1220 1067 1643 1732 1524 1168 969 983 maze32_m1390 1106 1081 884 1082 1235 996 969 1009 1204 1303 maze32_m1400 1353 1724 1361 1663 1707 1723 1099 1641 1996 1648 maze32_m1410 1521 1765 1774 2239 1950 1920 1687 1490 1714 1934 maze32_m1420 1607 1996 2002 1954 2413 2449 2132 1971 1987 2076 maze32_m1430 1533 1465 1916 2118 1660 1514 1513 1673 1566 1303 maze32_m1440 1276 1072 1950 1830 1486 1995 1524 1715 1543 1717 maze32_m1450 1415 1488 1663 1648 1651 1455 1366 1525 1249 1218 maze32_m1460 1455 1608 1336 1056 1068 904 797 752 810 583 maze32_m1470 640 532 517 479 587 622 593 564 530 476 maze32_m1480 550 696 871 679 746 457 544 684 629 827 maze32_m1490 746 855 1070 663 568 724 997 711 918 1620 maze32_m1500 1286 1602 1671 1452 1254 1786 976 957 975 1149 maze32_m1510 921 631 640 545 579 553 681 726 752 654 maze32_m1520 694 753 579 659 661 909 1062 1174 1113 1013 maze32_m1530 698 680 694 537 677 600 568 465 605 931 maze32_m1540 854 684 490 477 501 446 585 616 634 589 maze32_m1550 468 750 558 648 428 528 601 608 540 521 maze32_m1560 441 702 681 416 455 430 718 464 545 602 maze32_m1570 557 656 746 615 592 874 572 460 792 470 maze32_m1580 545 719 680 1026 879 766 968 660 999 maze38_m1551 3114 2358 2968 2155 2151 2849 3033 2933 3006 maze38_m1560 2864 3315 2853 1878 2022 2484 2853 2459 2899 2273 maze38_m1570 1936 2191 1918 1609 1018 1254 932 702 979 1044 maze38_m1580 990 1064 1079 1406 1119 916 965 799 681 804 maze38_m1590 693 638 803 835 627 606 600 628 822 787 maze38_m1600 757 696 602 642 777 805 610 637 857 550 maze38_m1610 724 752 569 691 1175 1722 1395 945 928 949 maze38_m1620 903 704 659 915 713 963 922 785 603 796 maze38_m1630 656 729 823 547 753 927 878 981 1180 959 maze38_m1640 1452 1129 979 1156 905 933 899 631 702 946 maze38_m1650 795 1062 918 982 852 902 838 549 753 910 maze38_m1660 1337 1755 1215 1060 1054 1003 1001 999 maze39_m1032 1756 1655 1732 1867 1882 1915 2259 1731 maze39_m1040 1642 1707 1559 1387 1854 1941 2213 2196 1777 2561 maze39_m1050 2086 2099 2026 1669 1135 1108 1080 1461 1640 1609 maze39_m1060 1903 1741 1615 1679 2001 1819 1246 1316 1286 1230 maze39_m1070 1015 873 956 1559 1493 1237 1553 1622 1423 1102 maze39_m1080 1160 1112 938 844 757 675 631 761 679 748 maze39_m1090 631 916 981 934 858 753 1064 1256 1085 1525 maze39_m1100 1056 1140 1183 999 maze41_m1041 1839 1579 1346 1696 1676 1697 1799 1620 1624 maze41_m1050 1279 1168 1326 956 695 496 406 595 646 868 maze41_m1060 908 1178 1249 1195 1330 1002 845 1046 640 559 maze41_m1070 582 751 592 732 813 933 1015 832 452 322 maze41_m1080 334 318 177 333 361 486 618 661 541 871 maze41_m1090 717 722 787 835 1077 923 1191 1469 1173 1533 maze41_m1100 1170 1021 1378 993 896 789 569 603 779 627 maze41_m1110 586 646 352 473 535 448 464 618 773 784 maze41_m1120 983 641 758 1169 1033 948 809 871 885 704 maze41_m1130 852 858 995 814 911 892 717 779 723 687 maze41_m1140 805 840 698 799 835 965 916 549 840 932 maze41_m1150 866 674 716 885 873 826 934 964 934 828 maze41_m1160 1033 1015 814 876 629 737 599 613 687 720 maze41_m1170 691 408 502 468 350 484 580 460 530 593 maze41_m1180 628 627 669 619 665 685 741 608 590 527 maze41_m1190 516 530 640 613 669 609 495 495 476 481 maze41_m1200 643 541 538 553 605 999 maze43_m 166 1585 1331 1319 1244 maze43_m 170 1325 1095 809 848 760 890 893 1094 1441 1197 maze43_m 180 1424 1782 1921 1797 1807 1807 1685 1503 1622 1736 maze43_m 190 1472 1547 1376 1484 1292 1409 1384 1362 1159 1143 maze43_m 200 966 1077 893 889 1071 949 911 657 1016 1347 maze43_m 210 810 797 841 943 891 922 786 809 764 628 maze43_m 220 587 625 708 586 678 930 718 667 560 530 maze43_m 230 534 557 457 477 649 597 605 519 541 630 maze43_m 240 549 407 844 714 600 1002 929 999 maze45_m 185 1832 1319 1128 1558 1765 maze45_m 190 1407 1674 1470 1886 1608 1736 1353 1181 1022 1086 maze45_m 200 938 851 861 882 1045 861 791 747 853 1076 maze45_m 210 754 902 1058 1070 878 883 714 755 637 633 maze45_m 220 763 692 770 684 767 782 736 645 596 548 maze45_m 230 558 532 382 402 510 519 537 454 396 511 maze45_m 240 545 490 800 708 606 815 949 897 1036 894 maze45_m 250 902 799 950 787 905 955 887 840 831 751 maze45_m 260 661 878 907 624 732 859 603 801 711 709 maze45_m 270 906 973 625 576 667 775 838 916 804 709 maze45_m 280 545 666 729 614 614 527 493 497 437 423 maze45_m 290 423 411 279 235 222 346 288 279 242 245 maze45_m 300 357 349 256 288 309 245 264 237 235 185 maze45_m 310 275 326 289 332 342 294 152 211 265 236 maze45_m 320 265 304 333 262 354 344 286 228 218 189 maze45_m 330 202 196 206 167 178 147 208 177 165 172 maze45_m 340 192 246 282 223 208 190 254 268 999 maze46_m 421 1814 2016 1495 1628 1947 1757 1336 1947 1955 maze46_m 430 1855 1409 1341 1678 1407 1580 1759 1732 1619 1458 maze46_m 440 1347 1803 2013 1941 1633 1333 1175 1439 1151 1167 maze46_m 450 1641 1505 1158 1235 1058 1287 1150 1061 867 877 maze46_m 460 1184 854 865 854 944 745 835 767 941 956 maze46_m 470 847 628 646 638 556 630 742 682 596 748 maze46_m 480 818 873 728 809 809 900 668 640 649 673 maze46_m 490 606 545 626 663 815 667 570 502 616 657 maze46_m 500 661 597 587 696 605 594 781 617 736 776 maze46_m 510 759 692 807 882 906 783 868 992 1097 866 maze46_m 520 766 718 684 674 809 795 894 943 759 781 maze46_m 530 792 788 757 782 712 629 480 478 533 554 maze46_m 540 651 625 622 533 472 384 425 464 552 410 maze46_m 550 358 378 466 482 445 469 489 677 620 587 maze46_m 560 596 471 242 474 464 505 485 482 463 409 maze46_m 570 383 428 447 434 402 356 362 410 463 466 maze46_m 580 411 392 515 418 345 289 316 224 289 299 maze46_m 590 278 216 225 258 252 326 248 246 223 273 maze46_m 600 244 226 227 209 226 246 238 202 252 234 maze46_m 610 244 225 233 258 239 274 246 264 310 301 maze46_m 620 192 219 266 229 169 216 198 185 210 180 maze46_m 630 144 131 167 148 176 177 212 207 181 151 maze46_m 640 136 166 153 193 204 207 150 150 148 179 maze46_m 650 213 236 237 199 179 192 252 236 222 183 maze46_m 660 213 233 207 179 207 203 205 241 159 190 maze46_m 670 999 maze52_m-108 688 851 885 837 745 731 762 735 maze52_m-100 795 742 742 922 1121 1007 963 949 1045 1252 maze52_m -90 1053 822 1013 870 769 1075 1075 790 957 856 maze52_m -80 960 998 1058 945 877 1063 1197 965 803 919 maze52_m -70 890 732 650 700 667 989 671 1010 720 836 maze52_m -60 766 690 657 757 806 821 740 1051 973 846 maze52_m -50 847 849 762 877 630 509 458 602 332 432 maze52_m -40 523 379 565 556 645 717 737 939 788 655 maze52_m -30 659 687 709 658 711 543 532 498 621 414 maze52_m -20 514 649 626 596 560 652 598 661 543 622 maze52_m -10 544 495 414 402 358 464 493 578 452 609 maze52_m 0 595 486 445 354 487 522 651 575 584 541 maze52_m 10 551 593 603 585 587 418 363 502 376 314 maze52_m 20 279 258 274 346 295 342 303 323 274 306 maze52_m 30 294 254 274 354 331 381 313 400 420 471 maze52_m 40 372 323 311 347 322 331 403 495 481 429 maze52_m 50 461 453 616 555 523 673 543 466 488 511 maze52_m 60 525 641 497 439 476 443 474 436 559 510 maze52_m 70 399 452 442 497 614 496 538 453 472 419 maze52_m 80 426 405 546 543 502 519 529 522 661 565 maze52_m 90 543 448 513 548 334 545 458 577 559 506 maze52_m 100 561 628 531 526 519 597 560 486 460 426 maze52_m 110 553 517 442 462 536 456 502 511 373 493 maze52_m 120 412 426 467 358 333 357 498 442 467 354 maze52_m 130 396 440 425 441 419 380 365 350 345 415 maze52_m 140 383 439 437 360 385 366 371 410 249 290 maze52_m 150 159 278 283 380 313 183 250 269 172 166 maze52_m 160 139 199 136 158 126 161 999 maze61_m-160 1022 1314 1522 1441 1884 1953 1674 1172 1464 1656 maze61_m-150 1639 1680 1411 1794 1510 1330 1667 1864 1551 1536 maze61_m-140 1524 1072 1741 1399 1289 1489 1717 1663 1884 2094 maze61_m-130 2043 2163 1543 1533 1601 1837 1247 1278 1557 1831 maze61_m-120 1280 1182 1600 1411 1513 1331 1423 1354 1199 1389 maze61_m-110 1261 992 1014 1140 1390 1129 1103 1211 1234 1313 maze61_m-100 1523 1377 1146 1209 1384 1462 1304 1275 1266 1357 maze61_m -90 1412 1028 1298 1149 996 1228 1200 1007 1220 968 maze61_m -80 1059 1059 1201 1184 1169 1177 1322 1150 927 1100 maze61_m -70 1131 1043 854 734 720 746 654 880 724 864 maze61_m -60 737 676 655 614 590 475 509 755 668 774 maze61_m -50 652 779 612 553 485 474 417 445 373 441 maze61_m -40 352 302 482 485 445 544 595 856 658 572 maze61_m -30 563 638 689 621 724 546 515 482 521 354 maze61_m -20 423 452 462 448 349 421 413 454 387 454 maze61_m -10 549 430 348 261 289 358 436 457 422 552 maze61_m 0 446 390 335 252 315 381 475 538 567 510 maze61_m 10 577 528 558 551 505 530 408 600 423 304 maze61_m 20 263 346 318 393 344 428 383 408 346 345 maze61_m 30 378 270 289 312 370 422 349 408 421 589 maze61_m 40 531 356 358 360 318 330 529 415 518 442 maze61_m 50 378 458 469 532 568 643 494 466 474 518 maze61_m 60 541 693 578 460 313 365 999 maze62km1604 359 355 279 280 596 187 maze62km1610 529 935 626 879 744 928 1512 1215 1185 1149 maze62km1620 919 1071 714 662 921 843 773 796 739 661 maze62km1630 730 902 845 798 830 1317 1218 1190 964 762 maze62km1640 763 911 857 908 870 1080 1038 853 1055 931 maze62km1650 981 806 886 1017 891 769 998 913 951 936 maze62km1660 824 1019 984 962 767 882 829 790 883 696 maze62km1670 792 769 681 622 535 384 413 370 439 460 maze62km1680 463 383 392 382 536 827 822 1286 1038 818 maze62km1690 872 803 766 497 635 575 521 490 524 475 maze62km1700 714 476 621 569 522 690 582 668 566 478 maze62km1710 483 508 542 420 478 557 519 521 454 480 maze62km1720 496 431 444 578 607 652 633 612 793 675 maze62km1730 706 623 617 636 563 508 629 581 693 749 maze62km1740 917 622 619 606 556 555 551 400 531 367 maze62km1750 290 300 401 433 511 524 510 493 450 476 maze62km1760 576 498 476 517 421 354 376 382 444 413 maze62km1770 459 352 351 397 412 393 389 319 999 maze63_m 656 1001 931 1359 1282 maze63_m 660 1173 962 1176 1149 1062 952 876 1202 1250 1454 maze63_m 670 1255 1182 1278 1274 1243 1118 973 913 922 1037 maze63_m 680 1195 1156 903 1000 1027 1150 1004 916 887 831 maze63_m 690 724 797 883 1054 1098 1307 1100 953 970 897 maze63_m 700 689 915 793 869 808 898 1068 825 741 724 maze63_m 710 678 709 620 664 733 737 699 681 663 671 maze63_m 720 727 790 707 690 615 627 569 573 565 474 maze63_m 730 537 508 576 558 533 527 465 551 528 504 maze63_m 740 593 566 735 708 649 825 880 915 807 755 maze63_m 750 853 708 580 701 628 898 892 714 852 845 maze63_m 760 856 839 1003 858 854 893 989 833 877 929 maze63_m 770 867 839 868 750 668 721 668 816 733 653 maze63_m 780 674 780 682 624 647 653 710 755 663 737 maze63_m 790 670 759 944 959 774 866 706 751 721 765 maze63_m 800 660 816 841 668 717 622 660 634 666 672 maze63_m 810 704 651 633 784 787 603 698 975 877 694 maze63_m 820 594 514 483 515 569 476 441 352 472 432 maze63_m 830 466 481 476 515 501 466 579 604 514 558 maze63_m 840 504 521 999 maze67_m 857 1086 1101 1266 maze67_m 860 1337 1325 1474 1483 1132 1234 884 994 865 876 maze67_m 870 938 986 1149 1173 1068 1230 1295 1050 1283 1278 maze67_m 880 1402 1305 1586 1480 1441 1343 1621 1478 1383 1291 maze67_m 890 1269 1232 1204 984 918 965 893 975 969 916 maze67_m 900 997 1071 1026 954 972 914 786 720 720 863 maze67_m 910 852 990 963 934 1132 1174 1213 1077 1092 1028 maze67_m 920 884 829 986 1007 1323 1048 1027 929 1181 1066 maze67_m 930 968 1001 974 879 831 774 843 793 784 642 maze67_m 940 603 790 599 643 607 736 845 916 910 867 maze67_m 950 811 943 850 773 722 744 903 787 846 736 maze67_m 960 747 624 599 693 805 820 701 634 635 642 maze67_m 970 547 476 478 519 618 582 649 615 563 613 maze67_m 980 651 654 557 609 575 571 476 412 390 397 maze67_m 990 317 389 330 422 999 mazf01_m1805 1569 1326 1727 1978 1220 mazf01_m1810 1111 1466 1354 1029 1126 881 1177 1088 747 875 mazf01_m1820 1327 1032 1365 1581 950 1331 1202 1417 1338 1407 mazf01_m1830 1591 1301 1003 1185 1168 1325 1040 1278 969 958 mazf01_m1840 1264 1192 1366 1036 1277 1268 1259 1347 1378 1042 mazf01_m1850 1058 1059 1079 1308 1283 1337 1373 1269 1109 1144 mazf01_m1860 1047 926 974 799 814 922 908 1127 998 1099 mazf01_m1870 1013 988 978 922 1040 1113 974 749 567 753 mazf01_m1880 782 801 999 mis005_m1552 1255 1260 980 865 1070 950 925 850 mis005_m1560 750 1340 1475 975 1020 1050 995 873 1065 888 mis005_m1570 875 713 1038 1090 985 1200 823 733 725 625 mis005_m1580 578 598 590 705 745 833 913 1030 453 563 mis005_m1590 613 410 475 315 298 320 223 348 323 345 mis005_m1600 263 250 238 303 393 385 408 360 515 400 mis005_m1610 420 553 553 695 753 780 1008 880 775 643 mis005_m1620 578 623 593 473 580 540 420 490 310 465 mis005_m1630 370 530 583 670 685 658 628 555 530 213 mis005_m1640 448 488 503 590 538 533 555 453 470 508 mis005_m1650 428 468 420 560 473 363 410 438 405 455 mis005_m1660 440 648 598 510 628 675 753 745 483 642 mis005_m1670 548 577 573 663 593 268 423 375 287 412 mis005_m1680 493 617 663 598 508 447 475 525 460 388 mis005_m1690 422 463 415 382 442 447 395 303 230 230 mis005_m1700 280 252 378 388 365 395 452 602 453 425 mis005_m1710 497 428 457 437 445 477 490 355 290 322 mis005_m1720 548 362 405 325 460 417 470 432 458 413 mis005_m1730 440 382 348 527 483 358 502 602 732 1033 mis005_m1740 980 683 890 695 528 473 526 486 644 613 mis005_m1750 530 486 506 463 516 570 461 494 333 396 mis005_m1760 469 436 371 466 446 296 288 284 220 245 mis005_m1770 265 212 192 178 230 245 252 167 213 183 mis005_m1780 198 213 238 260 358 300 258 363 633 513 mis005_m1790 490 510 525 395 520 388 368 350 295 185 mis005_m1800 158 170 200 193 188 168 163 145 118 155 mis005_m1810 90 135 90 60 35 40 999 mis007_m1571 850 860 915 925 1210 1275 860 790 610 mis007_m1580 550 730 800 920 785 1005 960 910 625 1000 mis007_m1590 865 610 850 695 595 505 385 415 495 430 mis007_m1600 430 350 410 520 710 575 360 390 430 375 mis007_m1610 415 565 500 648 575 478 580 493 455 593 mis007_m1620 463 473 335 363 353 413 413 443 233 305 mis007_m1630 313 383 358 438 478 525 440 428 430 313 mis007_m1640 520 463 430 463 405 410 405 363 485 480 mis007_m1650 360 240 353 448 348 383 360 350 325 443 mis007_m1660 498 720 595 560 628 658 665 545 388 450 mis007_m1670 345 393 363 400 355 250 303 205 160 263 mis007_m1680 223 303 400 363 258 225 235 258 205 213 mis007_m1690 283 260 233 200 280 180 190 193 138 95 mis007_m1700 100 105 183 218 215 208 218 293 213 185 mis007_m1710 240 203 220 183 170 138 135 120 100 113 mis007_m1720 115 128 173 150 183 173 160 163 180 200 mis007_m1730 208 190 168 325 273 273 298 270 205 260 mis007_m1740 203 188 228 188 143 150 173 163 310 235 mis007_m1750 218 188 208 225 253 278 198 173 155 188 mis007_m1760 185 193 170 245 225 173 240 228 188 143 mis007_m1770 155 150 133 148 170 183 158 120 173 150 mis007_m1780 178 208 188 168 213 155 160 160 155 155 mis007_m1790 153 155 138 173 168 183 233 170 200 168 mis007_m1800 168 163 215 165 120 115 115 105 103 93 mis007_m1810 90 140 145 113 153 75 75 100 75 85 mis007_m1820 70 88 100 98 128 115 115 120 95 103 mis007_m1830 118 138 138 143 113 999 mis008_m1685 245 260 270 205 190 mis008_m1690 230 235 205 180 310 215 220 210 185 170 mis008_m1700 190 125 175 173 185 153 235 208 193 188 mis008_m1710 218 263 318 320 268 285 230 215 258 213 mis008_m1720 258 170 265 203 290 258 343 330 308 245 mis008_m1730 198 233 205 243 233 218 208 268 265 390 mis008_m1740 268 248 318 425 288 225 318 320 348 338 mis008_m1750 278 268 345 385 485 470 338 345 278 283 mis008_m1760 340 348 350 328 350 235 400 343 338 323 mis008_m1770 305 440 325 375 358 550 498 343 525 403 mis008_m1780 515 575 325 430 540 355 540 393 510 383 mis008_m1790 378 330 245 198 260 283 298 290 275 240 mis008_m1800 295 278 265 233 273 230 245 338 248 163 mis008_m1810 150 218 265 218 198 178 173 178 140 128 mis008_m1820 128 115 195 208 213 190 138 253 278 198 mis008_m1830 253 288 203 295 278 268 190 108 105 158 mis008_m1840 118 173 148 93 153 158 163 110 113 125 mis008_m1850 123 90 98 103 90 85 75 115 95 73 mis008_m1860 70 120 133 110 83 90 113 88 113 125 mis008_m1870 135 105 120 150 120 165 170 160 180 170 mis008_m1880 145 160 205 190 205 210 205 230 220 260 mis008_m1890 210 220 260 305 340 999 mis010_m1576 560 450 500 490 mis010_m1580 500 540 590 730 635 615 650 665 363 425 mis010_m1590 510 510 525 440 408 438 303 350 303 220 mis010_m1600 255 253 285 378 365 395 315 343 460 325 mis010_m1610 470 575 498 620 578 675 703 573 460 523 mis010_m1620 478 525 445 525 558 608 510 623 320 563 mis010_m1630 518 575 568 480 468 538 530 575 733 540 mis010_m1640 758 703 618 688 718 673 670 390 555 605 mis010_m1650 528 598 555 620 438 498 568 485 510 545 mis010_m1660 455 563 523 483 600 510 595 645 538 653 mis010_m1670 478 558 518 490 403 245 370 335 390 428 mis010_m1680 515 625 650 588 473 360 485 553 430 363 mis010_m1690 498 455 378 398 418 348 365 303 333 220 mis010_m1700 183 288 335 350 333 300 363 380 315 380 mis010_m1710 363 280 405 425 383 368 355 205 140 145 mis010_m1720 193 175 173 193 248 203 208 240 205 243 mis010_m1730 218 198 173 205 200 215 265 238 308 310 mis010_m1740 213 155 190 195 170 178 233 193 225 218 mis010_m1750 220 193 203 255 260 280 243 245 213 240 mis010_m1760 220 248 238 250 235 275 263 275 255 253 mis010_m1770 248 263 240 323 283 273 343 275 415 323 mis010_m1780 385 383 378 335 418 365 365 413 395 345 mis010_m1790 323 340 283 308 355 323 403 423 390 360 mis010_m1800 433 385 425 555 365 360 270 280 305 290 mis010_m1810 250 330 320 155 140 50 90 30 999 mis011_m1585 1380 1420 1175 680 865 mis011_m1590 1075 915 1253 983 860 700 608 575 485 540 mis011_m1600 593 475 503 665 723 588 483 508 575 530 mis011_m1610 735 1138 1175 995 1090 1193 1295 1188 1293 1503 mis011_m1620 1410 1458 1433 1328 1463 1675 1420 1773 1195 1705 mis011_m1630 1050 1963 1715 1598 1468 1843 1805 1730 1638 895 mis011_m1640 1388 1008 948 1013 968 893 803 578 630 640 mis011_m1650 490 518 608 673 540 633 608 725 635 723 mis011_m1660 585 773 633 643 895 768 853 875 705 720 mis011_m1670 583 583 530 558 470 278 443 380 343 303 mis011_m1680 225 253 318 310 265 253 275 285 283 205 mis011_m1690 330 265 265 250 250 180 200 185 153 53 mis011_m1700 128 125 128 168 183 150 205 193 138 228 mis011_m1710 238 188 228 200 203 200 163 45 70 110 mis011_m1720 100 123 65 140 125 150 60 60 75 85 mis011_m1730 120 105 155 125 80 90 105 115 999 mis014_m1513 835 845 620 608 540 518 515 mis014_m1520 408 430 350 425 345 360 403 323 243 268 mis014_m1530 218 240 268 220 183 208 190 258 278 280 mis014_m1540 218 300 290 298 318 305 333 445 490 420 mis014_m1550 375 380 403 278 248 363 348 400 390 400 mis014_m1560 413 505 490 373 378 318 303 313 365 430 mis014_m1570 435 490 540 538 510 515 425 325 398 260 mis014_m1580 285 235 263 310 280 303 305 253 123 228 mis014_m1590 263 220 228 153 183 170 113 135 105 85 mis014_m1600 130 68 130 153 153 160 135 155 100 120 mis014_m1610 163 193 138 173 183 178 233 278 253 338 mis014_m1620 320 350 268 330 260 353 315 383 135 345 mis014_m1630 290 265 253 235 238 340 343 448 510 388 mis014_m1640 498 398 358 428 360 435 508 255 348 378 mis014_m1650 265 265 280 315 228 335 348 288 310 373 mis014_m1660 318 403 355 338 443 393 430 408 323 353 mis014_m1670 270 275 333 340 238 145 278 208 220 205 mis014_m1680 175 203 228 268 205 225 325 310 278 213 mis014_m1690 283 293 225 278 258 175 225 215 200 130 mis014_m1700 138 135 125 93 88 75 90 105 135 95 mis014_m1710 148 168 140 133 145 165 128 95 70 78 mis014_m1720 75 53 100 38 113 80 68 93 110 130 mis014_m1730 120 118 108 158 168 138 183 185 205 260 mis014_m1740 215 158 203 120 170 178 208 168 288 213 mis014_m1750 175 220 248 245 238 353 308 288 250 318 mis014_m1760 270 283 178 298 355 278 340 383 268 270 mis014_m1770 310 300 275 308 350 400 370 270 438 320 mis014_m1780 430 525 445 395 450 253 328 378 438 348 mis014_m1790 348 345 268 265 300 295 385 413 473 335 mis014_m1800 375 343 393 308 295 280 258 308 290 245 mis014_m1810 258 350 358 195 248 195 170 165 168 195 mis014_m1820 115 68 238 220 208 193 243 280 210 205 mis014_m1830 243 258 180 258 255 248 145 160 223 170 mis014_m1840 173 190 208 130 165 150 125 185 140 138 mis014_m1850 115 60 138 73 78 90 108 135 115 135 mis014_m1860 148 165 190 183 180 163 195 218 290 283 mis014_m1870 313 160 245 303 345 323 305 338 298 353 mis014_m1880 345 428 360 353 268 323 248 395 285 380 mis014_m1890 335 135 98 158 110 140 168 195 198 193 mis014_m1900 258 288 235 180 270 410 218 245 268 293 mis014_m1910 145 215 220 165 268 158 213 205 293 300 mis014_m1920 178 305 273 230 495 520 468 415 445 335 mis014_m1930 293 325 393 390 430 450 405 315 418 378 mis014_m1940 448 520 465 478 625 540 880 999 mis015_m1483 1275 1375 1350 1925 1695 1425 1715 mis015_m1490 2330 1790 1110 1045 1520 1660 1720 975 1215 1560 mis015_m1500 2345 1520 1802 2018 1725 1850 1723 2197 2387 2065 mis015_m1510 2113 1552 2460 2168 2097 1587 2172 2147 2275 2350 mis015_m1520 2017 1825 1678 1250 1698 1740 1587 1372 1135 1102 mis015_m1530 1073 910 893 783 673 470 333 502 523 833 mis015_m1540 1128 823 902 912 1203 1130 952 923 952 852 mis015_m1550 817 953 1145 1203 933 952 1040 1065 785 990 mis015_m1560 920 1157 1227 877 698 732 775 722 1055 1207 mis015_m1570 1237 1170 1457 1225 1117 1097 953 740 722 618 mis015_m1580 543 478 572 705 590 605 618 605 287 373 mis015_m1590 430 423 443 390 343 245 112 117 112 78 mis015_m1600 73 67 87 68 62 77 70 72 90 100 mis015_m1610 83 125 97 120 137 132 155 155 155 197 mis015_m1620 170 167 158 198 130 170 110 180 70 123 mis015_m1630 100 125 128 120 175 280 330 350 400 260 mis015_m1640 475 425 460 485 335 310 345 265 315 355 mis015_m1650 170 125 50 90 65 115 100 115 120 120 mis015_m1660 80 190 130 125 220 170 999 mis016_m1548 3115 3215 mis016_m1550 2400 2338 2528 2500 2530 2168 3103 2828 2813 3095 mis016_m1560 2878 3425 3325 2215 1988 2588 2410 2063 1950 1903 mis016_m1570 2088 2033 2293 1960 1810 1690 1655 2080 1365 1018 mis016_m1580 1103 1213 1263 1805 1405 1378 1328 1220 680 910 mis016_m1590 925 703 768 708 715 728 468 518 380 265 mis016_m1600 280 270 230 230 268 273 208 178 178 173 mis016_m1610 228 273 153 235 258 235 280 225 245 323 mis016_m1620 308 408 278 348 343 338 293 315 100 215 mis016_m1630 165 260 195 160 135 165 165 235 325 125 mis016_m1640 265 245 245 220 175 999 mis022_m1506 445 590 415 515 mis022_m1510 708 475 468 443 570 518 515 713 550 480 mis022_m1520 518 440 528 273 710 593 670 348 370 345 mis022_m1530 363 318 273 475 355 363 325 288 230 345 mis022_m1540 490 440 495 325 325 363 458 473 418 345 mis022_m1550 368 405 430 403 490 415 643 615 575 735 mis022_m1560 830 1190 1073 690 723 715 720 720 638 898 mis022_m1570 618 555 648 615 545 633 650 523 508 358 mis022_m1580 453 423 573 815 760 938 808 805 528 768 mis022_m1590 810 550 440 413 445 338 263 203 163 188 mis022_m1600 193 153 173 205 318 318 325 328 393 310 mis022_m1610 390 388 385 613 598 698 710 685 590 615 mis022_m1620 568 763 735 658 615 760 590 765 473 495 mis022_m1630 523 593 618 488 580 563 615 543 710 438 mis022_m1640 680 638 543 550 553 745 770 555 633 620 mis022_m1650 450 333 325 423 318 373 380 255 280 363 mis022_m1660 420 660 540 393 423 528 620 570 525 463 mis022_m1670 350 430 490 475 385 80 260 160 125 190 mis022_m1680 225 180 320 320 220 180 999 mis023_m1586 705 600 295 380 mis023_m1590 350 275 385 400 305 325 240 215 200 165 mis023_m1600 400 275 335 280 330 370 470 335 568 375 mis023_m1610 490 575 678 750 758 710 620 685 828 700 mis023_m1620 665 723 583 535 518 655 425 780 490 560 mis023_m1630 373 448 590 370 740 923 933 590 670 433 mis023_m1640 828 713 503 600 438 393 498 353 528 690 mis023_m1650 465 318 258 270 245 378 288 325 278 298 mis023_m1660 310 578 453 465 543 658 755 648 565 395 mis023_m1670 313 350 428 375 253 175 133 115 93 138 mis023_m1680 170 125 225 225 235 210 245 255 180 315 mis023_m1690 283 290 223 240 345 278 240 258 225 148 mis023_m1700 165 163 195 165 210 220 193 255 330 368 mis023_m1710 260 310 245 218 123 108 95 108 95 98 mis023_m1720 198 203 258 270 330 290 225 999 mis024_m1508 845 648 mis024_m1510 645 445 605 653 660 603 663 663 800 768 mis024_m1520 793 833 683 500 663 748 725 588 525 653 mis024_m1530 703 883 668 730 618 640 750 710 770 908 mis024_m1540 840 610 588 728 740 685 885 1053 983 1000 mis024_m1550 735 903 1083 1178 1195 953 995 928 988 1063 mis024_m1560 935 1758 1830 998 983 1103 945 813 1080 990 mis024_m1570 908 1000 1160 1183 1008 1108 943 755 685 580 mis024_m1580 490 615 598 765 710 680 735 565 308 610 mis024_m1590 623 473 478 448 368 335 255 260 278 330 mis024_m1600 328 293 255 453 525 490 475 470 575 465 mis024_m1610 683 918 983 1233 1068 1013 1103 1068 838 750 mis024_m1620 558 618 565 535 598 603 298 433 190 310 mis024_m1630 335 390 418 528 550 573 745 635 750 443 mis024_m1640 563 495 345 415 395 360 470 320 345 330 mis024_m1650 275 285 320 370 355 400 999 mis025_m1464 572 687 705 395 312 325 mis025_m1470 460 643 922 1100 737 1075 1347 963 1088 1598 mis025_m1480 1367 1273 967 1227 1062 970 1290 1212 1242 1940 mis025_m1490 1710 1548 1982 1685 1445 1205 1518 1430 1342 1460 mis025_m1500 1392 1172 1470 1215 1483 1952 1975 2277 2093 1958 mis025_m1510 1688 1655 2603 2213 2257 1712 2017 1903 2088 2015 mis025_m1520 1862 2280 1878 1370 1668 2052 2492 2468 2132 2100 mis025_m1530 2133 2190 1592 1558 1475 1643 1607 1522 1610 1917 mis025_m1540 2085 1288 1408 1318 1423 1550 1393 1443 1657 1505 mis025_m1550 1368 1638 1555 1535 1530 1503 1645 1553 1913 1888 mis025_m1560 1718 2513 2430 2058 2033 2190 1947 1795 1778 1743 mis025_m1570 1790 1785 1762 1542 1528 1525 1427 1225 1282 1048 mis025_m1580 1058 988 1165 1393 1178 1257 1198 1048 668 1052 mis025_m1590 1038 720 857 737 692 610 573 533 412 353 mis025_m1600 485 423 393 450 477 430 325 358 435 348 mis025_m1610 433 542 525 595 555 573 640 748 783 807 mis025_m1620 820 945 978 878 1057 1225 762 1080 660 960 mis025_m1630 910 1200 1155 1197 1117 1267 1327 1148 1233 680 mis025_m1640 905 672 738 740 695 798 825 510 600 555 mis025_m1650 480 433 478 570 555 553 668 678 478 508 mis025_m1660 443 655 718 565 598 568 763 890 618 643 mis025_m1670 373 428 568 605 440 260 510 345 330 460 mis025_m1680 360 455 395 930 855 595 635 680 715 575 mis025_m1690 890 1285 1020 825 940 530 485 415 360 285 mis025_m1700 275 255 390 315 370 290 230 265 245 290 mis025_m1710 285 185 205 200 225 320 335 999 mis026_m1435 367 303 317 330 298 mis026_m1440 463 443 322 357 390 453 365 335 405 410 mis026_m1450 437 458 498 332 528 305 373 222 213 157 mis026_m1460 212 182 162 292 250 243 212 255 238 183 mis026_m1470 267 243 245 362 500 633 630 522 682 703 mis026_m1480 857 845 907 1190 962 830 1032 927 1127 1263 mis026_m1490 1448 1157 1497 1065 950 1002 1008 773 1022 1133 mis026_m1500 1313 1147 1313 1183 1232 1118 987 937 965 805 mis026_m1510 715 625 1017 923 845 757 947 868 917 862 mis026_m1520 728 843 747 597 722 747 1112 740 663 697 mis026_m1530 527 533 527 578 525 652 588 735 562 815 mis026_m1540 853 703 765 597 908 845 962 1033 1028 883 mis026_m1550 772 1043 1038 1162 1030 970 1142 1217 1138 1202 mis026_m1560 1328 1572 1472 1165 1003 1177 1158 1155 1215 1185 mis026_m1570 1277 1233 1292 1167 967 1005 1057 863 858 655 mis026_m1580 672 695 722 817 703 808 867 768 442 697 mis026_m1590 555 367 398 323 368 300 138 135 80 65 mis026_m1600 72 75 77 132 210 162 140 143 167 152 mis026_m1610 142 150 157 180 188 205 235 270 230 313 mis026_m1620 245 268 275 338 322 310 325 503 273 317 mis026_m1630 390 347 408 318 335 390 382 437 467 375 mis026_m1640 652 578 477 512 448 578 467 425 500 518 mis026_m1650 427 438 350 563 433 502 595 493 532 507 mis026_m1660 413 483 423 440 512 502 525 412 370 348 mis026_m1670 283 282 303 387 320 192 232 223 253 285 mis026_m1680 185 192 193 160 128 999 mis027_m1443 1633 2003 2075 1713 1588 1745 1658 mis027_m1450 1623 1360 1338 1388 1213 1165 1093 1160 1353 1173 mis027_m1460 1160 1460 1185 1220 1260 1043 1060 1108 1078 965 mis027_m1470 1258 1333 1265 940 1220 885 1045 930 1083 1548 mis027_m1480 1358 1033 853 773 700 653 753 778 908 875 mis027_m1490 750 785 658 630 670 633 613 360 693 600 mis027_m1500 613 708 780 725 758 855 823 883 828 705 mis027_m1510 753 488 930 848 910 698 783 703 610 563 mis027_m1520 595 585 425 463 513 470 570 473 360 433 mis027_m1530 310 300 308 303 280 248 258 273 230 258 mis027_m1540 263 238 235 170 223 215 228 288 298 280 mis027_m1550 230 308 318 358 230 313 365 388 318 388 mis027_m1560 533 648 500 385 338 448 545 533 553 645 mis027_m1570 660 630 718 688 713 640 473 488 418 310 mis027_m1580 350 300 390 568 593 735 598 543 325 448 mis027_m1590 495 355 250 303 288 285 173 188 138 125 mis027_m1600 143 163 228 200 195 235 178 195 258 278 mis027_m1610 378 363 313 513 255 295 333 343 320 410 mis027_m1620 330 388 303 285 398 353 338 378 170 215 mis027_m1630 165 225 178 160 253 270 320 320 385 220 mis027_m1640 500 345 273 313 240 258 213 263 308 248 mis027_m1650 193 165 145 198 180 195 210 195 255 178 mis027_m1660 298 273 195 250 255 293 285 255 225 165 mis027_m1670 145 195 230 175 160 50 160 120 100 110 mis027_m1680 70 100 999 mis028_m1495 245 255 240 238 275 mis028_m1500 270 303 375 348 300 368 390 378 310 295 mis028_m1510 265 273 400 425 420 430 365 355 595 615 mis028_m1520 610 573 410 320 443 563 568 438 363 280 mis028_m1530 193 208 213 270 210 208 235 268 213 303 mis028_m1540 385 300 245 280 268 178 300 320 410 438 mis028_m1550 418 475 555 488 488 485 490 443 583 640 mis028_m1560 950 1008 1003 628 483 445 438 540 515 448 mis028_m1570 455 473 480 540 418 478 453 385 410 330 mis028_m1580 323 403 495 580 725 853 655 558 325 600 mis028_m1590 513 375 503 405 268 293 198 230 178 178 mis028_m1600 210 178 225 333 285 328 365 405 460 328 mis028_m1610 458 510 415 653 565 543 615 555 493 623 mis028_m1620 473 623 543 513 575 698 370 648 393 523 mis028_m1630 503 545 543 500 533 660 630 603 695 430 mis028_m1640 670 610 405 388 420 473 498 383 375 408 mis028_m1650 205 220 298 263 195 235 238 213 210 268 mis028_m1660 255 355 320 248 310 360 348 418 248 225 mis028_m1670 180 223 250 235 248 103 180 175 165 168 mis028_m1680 168 203 253 278 450 405 620 805 680 525 mis028_m1690 505 425 335 355 400 315 290 245 180 125 mis028_m1700 115 165 180 999 mis029_m1400 385 450 355 425 395 350 345 360 410 400 mis029_m1410 405 460 485 425 305 450 325 290 440 525 mis029_m1420 475 575 510 680 720 620 510 595 495 590 mis029_m1430 540 455 470 550 595 530 550 520 605 730 mis029_m1440 825 835 1095 1040 1025 1070 800 780 805 755 mis029_m1450 615 610 465 475 490 535 420 380 350 350 mis029_m1460 340 350 245 290 250 195 235 205 105 140 mis029_m1470 125 135 185 170 340 255 310 300 310 360 mis029_m1480 495 380 280 400 490 420 655 750 560 555 mis029_m1490 640 605 405 305 445 375 365 190 235 220 mis029_m1500 340 345 325 340 345 335 365 485 400 405 mis029_m1510 435 275 375 435 285 320 355 320 285 360 mis029_m1520 395 500 370 385 440 390 455 455 390 480 mis029_m1530 510 420 450 415 460 495 555 535 625 660 mis029_m1540 665 535 395 425 415 505 590 610 625 385 mis029_m1550 450 475 860 895 590 740 980 965 875 850 mis029_m1560 900 1375 1250 890 690 695 820 885 1555 1460 mis029_m1570 1095 1020 1130 855 810 1065 1025 670 820 650 mis029_m1580 640 565 750 845 760 940 1000 850 490 755 mis029_m1590 925 780 725 715 565 600 475 475 300 295 mis029_m1600 370 230 255 300 255 250 240 260 230 215 mis029_m1610 310 360 325 390 360 395 550 385 370 470 mis029_m1620 480 705 490 595 435 630 410 720 240 475 mis029_m1630 465 525 520 475 400 530 550 610 590 555 mis029_m1640 880 640 720 830 765 695 670 380 720 805 mis029_m1650 530 505 505 480 425 545 470 380 345 250 mis029_m1660 250 340 340 325 325 345 345 335 250 305 mis029_m1670 265 255 330 330 265 155 315 220 215 205 mis029_m1680 200 225 225 225 200 999 mis030_m1392 1030 878 1198 1360 1348 1148 1110 1335 mis030_m1400 1335 1415 1360 1288 1260 1373 1428 1770 1800 1808 mis030_m1410 2030 2210 2723 2340 2015 2028 1820 1875 2143 1835 mis030_m1420 1900 2103 2183 2045 1868 1708 1528 1713 1820 1943 mis030_m1430 1573 1618 1645 1755 1700 1643 1413 1388 1418 1250 mis030_m1440 1275 1285 1495 1323 1140 1295 1165 1100 1035 1048 mis030_m1450 1078 885 933 1048 828 848 668 710 698 573 mis030_m1460 743 825 680 633 483 425 348 428 400 260 mis030_m1470 373 393 493 490 653 613 685 645 578 573 mis030_m1480 583 518 468 488 488 398 563 550 450 480 mis030_m1490 433 410 398 360 328 323 323 235 340 343 mis030_m1500 370 383 445 415 430 460 413 470 418 418 mis030_m1510 435 273 500 423 373 288 398 368 303 368 mis030_m1520 338 340 413 310 415 338 410 355 285 378 mis030_m1530 480 523 480 408 430 383 358 448 290 323 mis030_m1540 475 383 340 360 453 480 655 700 638 525 mis030_m1550 328 380 483 470 413 415 460 495 508 535 mis030_m1560 480 723 738 473 520 488 508 448 680 528 mis030_m1570 538 700 658 533 698 723 590 533 450 368 mis030_m1580 400 473 448 510 618 1230 1165 1430 780 835 mis030_m1590 775 200 220 140 120 55 45 85 110 115 mis030_m1600 50 125 110 100 125 110 100 125 95 115 mis030_m1610 145 185 125 170 150 230 215 195 255 215 mis030_m1620 165 160 235 215 195 205 210 250 205 290 mis030_m1630 315 440 440 390 265 345 330 190 155 150 mis030_m1640 185 155 250 245 215 270 295 255 430 390 mis030_m1650 385 535 505 655 670 770 695 455 565 530 mis030_m1660 420 999 mis032_m1453 365 365 200 240 505 375 495 mis032_m1460 490 440 335 465 300 305 365 275 240 225 mis032_m1470 260 330 345 403 470 428 475 478 505 465 mis032_m1480 435 485 398 373 418 340 408 395 405 450 mis032_m1490 588 573 538 335 345 333 370 310 420 360 mis032_m1500 415 453 485 388 495 415 445 453 365 355 mis032_m1510 455 350 443 450 478 368 418 403 380 448 mis032_m1520 613 628 468 455 543 403 445 388 295 340 mis032_m1530 283 223 233 235 235 190 195 193 193 228 mis032_m1540 233 195 208 163 143 168 153 153 215 205 mis032_m1550 195 255 238 238 190 250 298 245 288 280 mis032_m1560 285 330 263 255 235 200 285 185 215 285 mis032_m1570 280 250 375 340 250 290 245 200 230 160 mis032_m1580 215 245 310 270 270 280 275 270 165 260 mis032_m1590 400 325 255 210 190 195 180 160 80 45 mis032_m1600 95 65 80 120 80 115 100 100 100 95 mis032_m1610 155 90 70 170 999 mis033_m1444 720 782 888 868 922 840 mis033_m1450 755 720 792 510 822 663 703 645 695 752 mis033_m1460 940 1202 652 942 687 630 533 588 665 523 mis033_m1470 720 677 757 820 982 1108 1258 1005 888 970 mis033_m1480 982 1062 908 1210 902 842 943 903 895 898 mis033_m1490 1152 1225 1218 1058 915 863 950 653 848 932 mis033_m1500 1000 1125 1302 1072 1137 1037 878 857 925 928 mis033_m1510 1025 885 1257 1077 1108 862 942 895 927 942 mis033_m1520 872 933 792 740 780 908 1020 940 780 832 mis033_m1530 725 838 683 677 638 585 490 558 513 668 mis033_m1540 673 488 515 443 563 593 588 538 620 560 mis033_m1550 503 592 655 542 418 517 615 493 512 570 mis033_m1560 672 788 708 632 498 575 572 493 543 545 mis033_m1570 518 462 578 547 448 473 383 372 323 263 mis033_m1580 263 310 313 353 403 450 382 352 287 352 mis033_m1590 330 297 258 212 208 195 110 102 73 83 mis033_m1600 122 90 105 127 167 135 143 168 148 142 mis033_m1610 175 198 192 233 212 195 268 250 193 207 mis033_m1620 228 255 260 225 233 302 295 378 202 282 mis033_m1630 283 395 383 407 408 415 395 320 370 295 mis033_m1640 430 397 327 335 413 418 413 350 393 438 mis033_m1650 353 388 295 400 305 343 320 305 310 328 mis033_m1660 273 360 303 275 355 358 345 350 343 293 mis033_m1670 335 313 390 395 330 190 460 425 393 443 mis033_m1680 305 323 353 280 268 248 270 295 273 200 mis033_m1690 305 300 283 273 315 240 260 250 243 148 mis033_m1700 138 170 193 168 120 163 178 160 140 193 mis033_m1710 170 153 138 135 155 113 105 83 63 68 mis033_m1720 75 73 113 78 78 88 90 105 105 83 mis033_m1730 85 93 95 160 168 128 123 138 165 218 mis033_m1740 198 190 158 100 133 140 95 100 198 128 mis033_m1750 123 143 125 148 155 238 175 130 155 205 mis033_m1760 175 193 148 245 193 170 185 178 130 178 mis033_m1770 155 188 153 168 203 273 220 185 253 195 mis033_m1780 313 323 258 280 348 203 258 333 293 255 mis033_m1790 263 325 253 300 278 225 293 258 330 270 mis033_m1800 275 243 240 220 230 140 135 999 mis034_m1445 318 210 245 298 293 mis034_m1450 285 175 175 255 308 325 268 238 290 248 mis034_m1460 398 355 215 285 385 335 318 295 218 153 mis034_m1470 275 340 390 410 398 580 558 445 458 510 mis034_m1480 513 570 518 528 503 473 513 500 513 558 mis034_m1490 680 565 610 488 583 693 705 510 690 823 mis034_m1500 803 845 943 805 728 813 770 773 830 1005 mis034_m1510 970 783 1270 1108 883 828 680 553 673 740 mis034_m1520 973 1040 760 620 775 845 975 830 735 883 mis034_m1530 775 658 635 605 633 658 733 765 878 785 mis034_m1540 830 670 655 568 760 648 883 700 643 600 mis034_m1550 558 630 785 828 843 1063 1225 905 800 913 mis034_m1560 915 1275 1523 1008 895 848 710 838 898 885 mis034_m1570 860 853 973 1105 1018 1083 793 618 640 655 mis034_m1580 1883 498 623 548 700 545 483 345 250 283 mis034_m1590 493 300 285 260 313 375 270 220 180 290 mis034_m1600 210 185 245 400 420 340 340 395 590 425 mis034_m1610 545 645 580 715 450 460 615 605 485 510 mis034_m1620 435 445 325 350 500 350 355 395 245 360 mis034_m1630 235 340 300 370 460 460 555 505 555 270 mis034_m1640 505 465 375 415 370 420 360 325 375 370 mis034_m1650 350 340 285 295 290 315 290 340 295 270 mis034_m1660 260 425 260 240 275 330 300 340 270 245 mis034_m1670 220 240 250 250 230 95 225 130 140 235 mis034_m1680 135 180 215 230 205 210 245 220 160 140 mis034_m1690 225 240 265 210 195 110 140 135 120 85 mis034_m1700 75 50 145 85 135 110 135 180 75 80 mis034_m1710 70 85 90 65 105 65 80 95 40 40 mis034_m1720 75 45 100 40 80 70 55 130 95 125 mis034_m1730 110 95 110 245 225 195 155 140 160 180 mis034_m1740 90 110 130 45 65 85 100 95 155 85 mis034_m1750 80 65 95 115 145 195 115 215 60 100 mis034_m1760 110 80 55 110 130 90 180 125 125 185 mis034_m1770 175 155 200 310 300 999 mis035_m1412 818 1040 1450 1963 1570 1413 1528 1613 mis035_m1420 785 1733 1260 1235 1303 1313 1030 1260 933 1018 mis035_m1430 878 1085 1238 1273 1413 1430 1313 1245 995 818 mis035_m1440 833 888 885 748 730 800 820 763 788 553 mis035_m1450 483 498 640 523 538 560 710 628 493 455 mis035_m1460 443 708 533 560 558 420 493 540 410 425 mis035_m1470 493 533 523 578 700 650 535 448 465 690 mis035_m1480 743 678 648 800 828 403 545 610 588 460 mis035_m1490 583 523 588 453 445 538 555 368 418 403 mis035_m1500 503 515 598 558 678 598 475 368 420 503 mis035_m1510 580 413 615 598 630 488 643 628 353 293 mis035_m1520 300 345 288 293 390 393 465 353 285 270 mis035_m1530 245 263 248 210 258 238 225 260 245 273 mis035_m1540 243 188 213 235 203 223 253 315 325 240 mis035_m1550 233 265 298 340 300 320 363 343 355 343 mis035_m1560 240 158 155 195 350 348 270 250 333 380 mis035_m1570 370 270 358 440 435 383 333 245 235 188 mis035_m1580 198 183 280 318 275 275 375 295 208 395 mis035_m1590 500 270 283 190 193 203 175 203 135 110 mis035_m1600 143 118 130 190 153 138 130 143 160 173 mis035_m1610 240 265 185 200 258 235 245 210 198 238 mis035_m1620 235 270 253 310 275 355 298 320 153 363 mis035_m1630 340 395 328 348 300 463 463 398 405 368 mis035_m1640 533 460 485 495 513 533 493 263 225 323 mis035_m1650 258 230 268 303 213 265 283 268 333 325 mis035_m1660 180 323 168 108 188 245 340 380 320 385 mis035_m1670 290 320 370 370 275 170 415 320 445 520 mis035_m1680 320 305 320 365 290 280 305 455 270 225 mis035_m1690 325 305 375 999 mis036_m1491 563 388 558 595 703 582 420 693 950 mis036_m1500 1043 988 830 843 825 782 757 955 905 807 mis036_m1510 1028 777 815 980 977 980 923 1023 1070 1300 mis036_m1520 1283 1112 948 662 828 1212 1153 1037 782 1003 mis036_m1530 1012 843 870 597 717 782 668 898 920 912 mis036_m1540 1080 855 913 950 1073 1128 1207 1138 1083 950 mis036_m1550 825 1100 1160 1092 960 932 1043 1088 1185 1257 mis036_m1560 1113 1500 1383 1090 1143 1240 1097 1037 1322 1220 mis036_m1570 1078 1025 1200 1217 1093 1255 870 728 912 808 mis036_m1580 837 720 860 1133 1115 1155 1308 1030 542 908 mis036_m1590 898 673 800 705 688 583 403 400 538 472 mis036_m1600 423 330 348 422 595 543 492 535 545 418 mis036_m1610 590 687 537 673 640 662 670 572 632 672 mis036_m1620 568 563 457 462 440 538 452 567 317 578 mis036_m1630 398 577 552 533 538 682 728 723 858 560 mis036_m1640 830 650 700 720 710 748 837 483 633 727 mis036_m1650 583 588 550 607 450 572 637 497 470 545 mis036_m1660 300 490 387 362 517 555 497 435 378 415 mis036_m1670 298 387 452 442 353 183 353 300 297 423 mis036_m1680 335 285 268 293 215 172 202 267 213 140 mis036_m1690 225 242 213 195 225 188 158 135 145 65 mis036_m1700 88 135 123 110 108 118 175 163 148 190 mis036_m1710 215 158 158 135 133 138 118 93 105 90 mis036_m1720 138 98 165 133 165 155 170 188 233 220 mis036_m1730 170 285 233 298 245 268 238 305 295 265 mis036_m1740 213 173 163 128 163 150 168 113 165 105 mis036_m1750 143 178 218 315 258 328 278 273 188 203 mis036_m1760 228 253 153 220 225 183 208 190 165 178 mis036_m1770 155 153 210 193 205 245 210 175 190 180 mis036_m1780 220 290 290 200 235 170 155 180 250 210 mis036_m1790 180 180 160 160 220 215 345 300 420 285 mis036_m1800 999 mis037_m1570 940 785 1265 1290 1185 1135 1195 1130 900 705 mis037_m1580 530 345 490 405 540 670 1035 703 570 545 mis037_m1590 535 470 545 445 358 253 185 193 175 210 mis037_m1600 295 228 203 243 425 403 363 495 548 573 mis037_m1610 630 715 685 605 543 560 593 520 508 440 mis037_m1620 468 455 388 370 508 680 478 738 638 563 mis037_m1630 393 438 513 468 585 605 600 675 783 545 mis037_m1640 1033 1138 978 933 673 695 830 650 830 948 mis037_m1650 680 750 850 878 745 960 783 865 705 813 mis037_m1660 840 1038 758 720 913 780 775 803 635 598 mis037_m1670 570 710 718 733 623 340 518 443 445 583 mis037_m1680 600 593 675 550 425 475 635 538 458 713 mis037_m1690 705 515 478 530 665 388 463 425 468 255 mis037_m1700 248 210 298 280 290 250 233 260 215 290 mis037_m1710 308 495 363 290 428 298 333 168 170 185 mis037_m1720 220 178 290 198 305 323 445 360 408 420 mis037_m1730 628 475 378 375 328 308 315 488 628 713 mis037_m1740 408 258 350 158 170 185 200 215 285 278 mis037_m1750 183 183 233 228 303 213 180 168 228 213 mis037_m1760 228 305 258 358 375 325 363 418 225 293 mis037_m1770 328 350 250 315 290 475 415 328 435 353 mis037_m1780 555 620 675 665 910 425 475 600 555 470 mis037_m1790 410 999 mis038km1151 133 143 193 252 235 243 233 213 268 mis038km1160 325 338 337 318 290 348 308 413 417 455 mis038km1170 543 438 317 370 382 447 337 452 347 382 mis038km1180 457 515 585 452 448 480 515 468 375 402 mis038km1190 322 238 317 315 343 345 243 202 277 213 mis038km1200 255 300 297 435 460 463 407 280 273 310 mis038km1210 408 350 375 327 455 363 348 315 280 332 mis038km1220 332 295 308 303 287 342 277 193 237 280 mis038km1230 242 175 230 248 292 235 187 230 317 308 mis038km1240 255 248 163 237 302 315 278 322 275 282 mis038km1250 287 262 260 235 237 318 260 357 337 413 mis038km1260 410 278 307 288 267 315 378 322 400 392 mis038km1270 495 465 432 488 518 433 353 385 273 352 mis038km1280 342 272 257 202 247 187 175 125 182 173 mis038km1290 157 113 222 208 258 337 272 352 277 277 mis038km1300 278 313 287 272 215 260 287 225 270 247 mis038km1310 150 255 277 285 283 227 253 363 322 317 mis038km1320 293 260 238 303 400 378 320 288 328 273 mis038km1330 223 188 425 400 403 315 258 203 168 200 mis038km1340 238 245 148 228 295 345 293 213 155 163 mis038km1350 180 193 213 195 310 225 195 230 260 213 mis038km1360 200 205 165 155 148 195 148 178 203 203 mis038km1370 235 235 258 225 168 198 193 243 225 223 mis038km1380 243 228 220 315 373 320 270 288 340 365 mis038km1390 270 190 160 258 213 208 195 215 203 198 mis038km1400 103 143 153 265 278 283 243 258 235 255 mis038km1410 243 293 280 320 285 315 245 298 388 328 mis038km1420 318 355 290 323 365 355 320 405 400 345 mis038km1430 295 400 410 615 605 620 435 490 390 430 mis038km1440 445 350 355 290 390 565 280 380 460 335 mis038km1450 385 320 350 400 370 355 360 380 365 490 mis038km1460 495 515 485 565 585 515 440 380 400 385 mis038km1470 555 490 400 415 605 535 630 680 680 575 mis038km1480 645 750 535 490 580 495 615 660 540 645 mis038km1490 765 740 655 375 425 370 440 310 470 450 mis038km1500 555 625 760 655 705 670 665 770 855 1320 mis038km1510 1130 895 1520 1205 1135 955 1035 635 895 775 mis038km1520 945 1115 1000 800 980 955 1190 1115 660 750 mis038km1530 530 465 495 390 490 480 405 375 325 295 mis038km1540 305 240 200 240 205 210 250 270 305 310 mis038km1550 380 400 515 580 355 490 455 425 345 435 mis038km1560 500 685 730 560 295 430 100 335 405 355 mis038km1570 290 310 385 320 315 320 320 305 245 220 mis038km1580 125 165 999 mis039_m1230 1640 1808 1930 1430 1215 1760 1360 1283 1763 1313 mis039_m1240 1438 1457 1440 1512 1152 1147 1402 1272 1387 1362 mis039_m1250 1333 1372 1428 1408 1222 1363 1510 1713 1583 1760 mis039_m1260 1658 1320 1640 1425 1278 1247 1272 1160 1075 1207 mis039_m1270 1053 1163 1135 1198 1257 1207 1022 1300 988 1228 mis039_m1280 1177 1050 1062 1060 983 1020 898 725 917 1053 mis039_m1290 1168 1010 953 1078 1250 1477 1300 1490 1397 1093 mis039_m1300 965 1217 880 823 842 737 585 455 588 502 mis039_m1310 490 663 757 745 653 693 655 865 867 777 mis039_m1320 885 825 752 895 770 743 807 825 903 758 mis039_m1330 633 512 848 1003 925 918 772 727 675 678 mis039_m1340 707 712 637 753 752 827 768 677 605 638 mis039_m1350 665 672 775 580 628 505 422 587 787 773 mis039_m1360 795 853 755 805 817 795 663 752 745 673 mis039_m1370 900 908 777 742 682 560 610 642 715 625 mis039_m1380 805 790 833 688 1052 1080 1120 908 933 953 mis039_m1390 857 1052 688 718 723 645 647 657 560 607 mis039_m1400 503 513 447 675 775 747 560 580 625 755 mis039_m1410 705 670 842 707 640 610 530 537 677 817 mis039_m1420 778 812 687 828 1180 945 860 950 870 970 mis039_m1430 740 776 686 805 751 766 719 668 634 659 mis039_m1440 660 709 886 833 831 764 655 555 740 683 mis039_m1450 569 488 468 406 391 399 354 325 333 379 mis039_m1460 343 329 315 271 258 189 244 298 263 226 mis039_m1470 220 286 288 310 351 310 314 311 318 379 mis039_m1480 470 694 441 536 598 470 600 671 686 590 mis039_m1490 729 796 950 641 641 608 595 428 565 508 mis039_m1500 604 656 591 595 584 540 528 560 555 639 mis039_m1510 698 613 858 764 694 633 603 563 581 759 mis039_m1520 754 874 645 515 565 594 743 678 650 701 mis039_m1530 613 618 560 433 456 438 430 444 504 561 mis039_m1540 675 510 473 469 543 536 535 549 585 519 mis039_m1550 531 573 726 633 576 641 611 633 600 656 mis039_m1560 621 1051 1214 970 738 793 638 763 798 741 mis039_m1570 758 829 773 860 744 901 729 633 581 468 mis039_m1580 444 426 431 486 483 678 719 701 489 755 mis039_m1590 865 586 568 489 439 371 241 271 304 285 mis039_m1600 263 249 231 293 331 305 250 263 294 246 mis039_m1610 321 374 475 621 549 563 559 475 421 522 mis039_m1620 447 513 443 443 448 465 397 587 252 450 mis039_m1630 373 632 400 343 370 563 530 485 543 283 mis039_m1640 398 345 390 468 432 467 517 368 403 405 mis039_m1650 352 353 302 367 300 347 372 427 353 397 mis039_m1660 318 370 298 273 348 462 397 328 257 245 mis039_m1670 163 168 235 240 165 133 168 152 168 162 mis039_m1680 163 180 202 205 200 210 220 305 265 178 mis039_m1690 323 310 300 258 348 268 270 200 175 103 mis039_m1700 163 113 223 153 198 150 203 220 165 250 mis039_m1710 268 245 245 240 253 218 230 85 55 95 mis039_m1720 138 150 265 188 313 360 408 335 328 323 mis039_m1730 285 335 220 285 255 220 180 225 285 375 mis039_m1740 395 245 325 245 335 210 250 380 485 320 mis039_m1750 235 210 235 245 305 400 330 455 225 425 mis039_m1760 600 405 435 465 485 410 455 480 390 445 mis039_m1770 380 440 530 530 430 435 355 265 440 320 mis039_m1780 400 400 370 555 750 455 480 635 800 730 mis039_m1790 790 555 490 540 415 385 640 790 890 570 mis039_m1800 575 595 850 755 630 575 570 815 845 500 mis039_m1810 415 495 515 340 360 170 160 155 90 140 mis039_m1820 95 55 185 225 255 255 285 400 445 435 mis039_m1830 415 375 370 370 350 465 265 250 325 315 mis039_m1840 380 425 430 295 335 315 380 460 395 425 mis039_m1850 315 360 620 470 375 205 240 310 270 325 mis039_m1860 315 595 670 445 440 365 340 315 340 360 mis039_m1870 450 335 425 490 425 415 370 370 385 340 mis039_m1880 355 475 450 455 420 370 340 510 290 450 mis039_m1890 465 350 320 435 435 430 305 205 370 430 mis039_m1900 445 470 370 335 245 215 180 190 245 150 mis039_m1910 155 205 225 999 mis040_m1423 475 493 260 370 425 393 413 mis040_m1430 590 668 780 853 785 765 843 890 890 670 mis040_m1440 710 645 680 805 1080 1005 728 728 700 630 mis040_m1450 590 565 630 498 525 595 350 395 343 400 mis040_m1460 525 613 490 415 370 320 220 255 213 195 mis040_m1470 268 353 308 393 595 585 543 475 553 568 mis040_m1480 568 643 508 525 547 393 537 563 515 543 mis040_m1490 665 622 668 410 418 525 533 303 488 448 mis040_m1500 495 558 600 477 470 455 360 368 367 408 mis040_m1510 418 298 508 458 463 427 510 325 413 500 mis040_m1520 500 567 555 408 437 488 522 442 343 405 mis040_m1530 358 318 268 263 373 340 313 307 258 310 mis040_m1540 420 253 223 248 308 248 293 345 315 273 mis040_m1550 222 275 318 287 308 320 448 380 337 462 mis040_m1560 580 872 833 483 510 502 480 443 447 538 mis040_m1570 500 570 622 598 545 593 418 365 402 300 mis040_m1580 308 375 383 520 570 605 438 370 250 388 mis040_m1590 352 298 315 293 250 277 198 173 167 200 mis040_m1600 153 173 165 197 242 230 235 240 288 280 mis040_m1610 333 380 407 498 442 425 432 435 403 383 mis040_m1620 412 448 435 382 427 423 335 463 370 445 mis040_m1630 408 547 663 602 707 692 665 678 650 392 mis040_m1640 592 587 680 727 758 677 640 533 567 622 mis040_m1650 490 442 425 540 460 517 490 433 410 395 mis040_m1660 442 603 543 378 490 490 492 377 275 265 mis040_m1670 193 245 338 305 262 168 308 228 242 348 mis040_m1680 255 203 247 250 220 198 262 228 220 215 mis040_m1690 238 197 208 225 265 198 270 248 152 100 mis040_m1700 108 107 115 130 153 127 173 163 115 193 mis040_m1710 198 185 190 178 190 190 195 88 100 105 mis040_m1720 180 185 255 170 185 203 258 208 220 230 mis040_m1730 218 235 225 355 305 205 250 245 310 393 mis040_m1740 315 360 460 278 230 283 355 470 548 480 mis040_m1750 365 445 438 555 498 540 475 423 348 485 mis040_m1760 443 398 340 413 478 270 288 270 228 258 mis040_m1770 313 310 310 230 240 245 195 195 260 165 mis040_m1780 190 265 270 265 285 215 265 420 385 320 mis040_m1790 385 380 305 350 275 175 240 220 210 999 mis041_m1400 368 335 435 440 378 335 380 503 533 420 mis041_m1410 545 500 580 513 588 655 558 533 565 485 mis041_m1420 535 775 638 755 643 515 543 638 608 650 mis041_m1430 643 890 848 910 1010 933 928 758 708 693 mis041_m1440 643 573 563 558 835 803 675 683 720 590 mis041_m1450 560 458 458 473 485 540 380 405 405 345 mis041_m1460 445 543 475 528 523 428 373 390 415 418 mis041_m1470 533 583 485 528 580 645 613 543 498 478 mis041_m1480 488 653 490 498 635 430 533 583 523 538 mis041_m1490 725 743 685 618 643 680 563 483 703 703 mis041_m1500 665 668 755 668 688 663 643 738 755 900 mis041_m1510 855 635 1088 945 960 795 913 778 998 855 mis041_m1520 985 833 798 648 795 743 1013 803 675 843 mis041_m1530 950 995 855 810 815 755 670 790 765 873 mis041_m1540 948 570 613 570 590 650 725 793 858 678 mis041_m1550 603 695 613 610 530 585 715 695 655 730 mis041_m1560 725 970 950 690 608 658 660 540 673 718 mis041_m1570 730 638 790 728 753 720 570 538 520 395 mis041_m1580 458 430 493 595 568 603 643 553 300 493 mis041_m1590 513 380 445 458 383 295 235 223 158 158 mis041_m1600 188 145 148 168 178 188 193 173 188 173 mis041_m1610 200 228 195 225 190 185 230 220 220 260 mis041_m1620 290 265 250 235 250 340 280 370 250 390 mis041_m1630 375 220 150 140 95 115 125 145 160 175 mis041_m1640 999 mis042km1397 308 310 268 mis042km1400 142 267 365 385 505 468 457 492 568 698 mis042km1410 740 773 878 842 850 978 732 772 927 1115 mis042km1420 1002 1625 1220 1413 1597 1293 1255 1460 1340 1380 mis042km1430 1270 1545 1758 1783 1872 1855 1852 1607 1512 1155 mis042km1440 1447 1780 1738 1472 1777 1718 1522 1358 1413 1652 mis042km1450 1582 1503 1320 1195 882 870 795 690 562 590 mis042km1460 700 895 713 772 707 418 342 368 287 240 mis042km1470 337 380 410 442 567 550 650 575 673 572 mis042km1480 658 988 802 778 852 673 837 972 977 912 mis042km1490 1053 1083 885 773 592 685 692 555 588 630 mis042km1500 717 885 940 778 807 720 788 817 718 673 mis042km1510 710 558 838 727 643 572 658 525 535 492 mis042km1520 452 418 368 327 428 397 427 460 360 408 mis042km1530 377 267 322 355 297 310 275 313 275 315 mis042km1540 320 252 198 207 272 255 265 332 490 337 mis042km1550 285 333 282 295 252 277 292 280 232 327 mis042km1560 323 310 263 287 298 295 272 253 293 300 mis042km1570 302 267 305 255 257 302 283 227 228 240 mis042km1580 265 193 235 290 268 300 332 262 140 180 mis042km1590 207 172 212 175 197 193 140 183 163 160 mis042km1600 193 202 253 272 252 293 268 248 280 277 mis042km1610 342 377 347 420 283 290 337 328 298 297 mis042km1620 242 288 255 253 272 343 318 410 230 255 mis042km1630 267 278 283 272 275 348 362 363 365 325 mis042km1640 432 390 403 363 362 352 358 240 280 358 mis042km1650 340 303 323 352 298 362 395 313 287 300 mis042km1660 252 347 333 245 333 378 298 332 220 263 mis042km1670 217 263 280 265 210 130 183 125 123 170 mis042km1680 160 182 195 167 143 162 188 212 178 183 mis042km1690 207 203 200 220 167 113 113 102 93 73 mis042km1700 78 97 108 77 95 108 152 130 117 160 mis042km1710 152 132 128 120 105 87 75 999 mis043_m1161 928 598 437 460 505 577 583 602 575 mis043_m1170 603 557 750 487 455 532 553 565 465 478 mis043_m1180 425 385 523 407 477 462 587 560 363 372 mis043_m1190 395 260 315 300 337 302 300 363 402 315 mis043_m1200 348 375 372 360 402 488 432 357 338 352 mis043_m1210 368 305 288 352 380 330 328 382 313 353 mis043_m1220 400 322 343 330 405 333 428 283 238 275 mis043_m1230 293 265 272 272 248 207 195 188 212 185 mis043_m1240 98 113 87 93 127 143 148 138 162 115 mis043_m1250 152 110 77 98 115 133 88 118 112 158 mis043_m1260 155 120 147 128 120 142 107 95 95 103 mis043_m1270 88 97 93 163 133 97 117 143 123 125 mis043_m1280 140 182 152 115 115 137 168 130 115 112 mis043_m1290 82 82 108 107 98 133 128 213 160 153 mis043_m1300 177 178 155 207 177 188 223 185 215 200 mis043_m1310 182 215 263 288 248 222 210 273 250 230 mis043_m1320 280 273 285 283 300 215 245 248 277 268 mis043_m1330 305 195 258 333 353 337 302 263 245 307 mis043_m1340 327 277 267 305 295 368 363 333 297 392 mis043_m1350 332 307 392 337 388 355 342 343 508 600 mis043_m1360 852 880 645 598 613 642 475 568 583 467 mis043_m1370 570 722 662 580 635 512 475 500 537 430 mis043_m1380 483 498 580 605 758 728 778 718 725 768 mis043_m1390 642 662 477 658 677 603 612 718 563 697 mis043_m1400 715 810 795 820 750 737 592 600 607 603 mis043_m1410 607 682 713 593 593 640 643 480 575 568 mis043_m1420 532 627 565 593 733 663 607 653 558 583 mis043_m1430 482 572 662 625 588 563 522 562 503 515 mis043_m1440 555 517 532 542 598 598 518 527 538 468 mis043_m1450 455 470 438 395 357 377 313 315 322 297 mis043_m1460 340 333 402 370 352 325 282 252 232 210 mis043_m1470 258 245 217 223 277 260 288 315 300 352 mis043_m1480 363 377 323 312 373 283 398 400 347 378 mis043_m1490 360 360 360 322 352 363 403 298 418 360 mis043_m1500 413 448 472 433 363 363 447 442 427 420 mis043_m1510 475 382 553 498 500 448 533 450 488 528 mis043_m1520 475 450 473 385 543 523 448 405 355 353 mis043_m1530 320 318 315 300 355 333 200 238 240 258 mis043_m1540 253 233 223 213 235 240 235 293 318 283 mis043_m1550 273 310 305 288 293 330 350 295 323 355 mis043_m1560 458 545 638 668 643 580 570 620 680 558 mis043_m1570 520 553 588 593 503 565 468 455 483 338 mis043_m1580 388 413 478 695 613 673 273 80 60 80 mis043_m1590 133 120 143 125 123 113 68 120 158 225 mis043_m1600 245 188 178 188 215 243 255 250 238 233 mis043_m1610 198 168 175 383 250 260 295 220 183 228 mis043_m1620 170 298 225 243 280 293 237 238 122 178 mis043_m1630 160 190 195 183 222 335 300 313 353 213 mis043_m1640 308 312 235 262 245 333 203 212 235 240 mis043_m1650 188 205 187 235 192 253 265 208 218 272 mis043_m1660 217 320 227 260 310 295 270 273 233 205 mis043_m1670 230 220 275 225 217 115 138 155 150 187 mis043_m1680 115 165 197 193 207 183 187 247 197 197 mis043_m1690 260 222 255 192 195 192 185 150 147 133 mis043_m1700 153 142 160 183 218 192 210 187 167 270 mis043_m1710 205 200 200 238 193 268 253 148 148 107 mis043_m1720 170 133 212 187 242 257 263 338 382 392 mis043_m1730 415 378 323 502 445 378 420 402 405 442 mis043_m1740 438 317 308 272 263 232 285 273 377 283 mis043_m1750 272 333 362 322 328 360 278 298 203 317 mis043_m1760 368 307 248 348 388 282 313 292 247 268 mis043_m1770 252 245 237 252 275 323 297 213 332 348 mis043_m1780 355 403 483 442 492 430 435 453 640 530 mis043_m1790 475 488 448 335 478 393 543 475 508 445 mis043_m1800 510 463 485 458 385 323 518 503 445 303 mis043_m1810 288 343 215 140 133 130 88 98 105 65 mis043_m1820 78 55 115 63 110 100 120 128 153 150 mis043_m1830 185 98 128 133 153 243 173 148 103 165 mis043_m1840 145 133 163 128 115 128 115 110 128 128 mis043_m1850 150 118 145 168 183 145 163 215 163 230 mis043_m1860 225 180 255 265 303 220 263 258 235 260 mis043_m1870 228 180 210 230 220 278 240 170 188 208 mis043_m1880 190 295 265 223 208 173 173 230 245 235 mis043_m1890 193 173 325 285 230 260 265 265 260 290 mis043_m1900 270 355 330 370 420 435 355 400 500 375 mis043_m1910 340 470 440 205 250 295 175 280 220 220 mis043_m1920 310 325 380 255 370 280 210 360 340 350 mis043_m1930 320 345 265 225 275 220 999 mis044_m1439 235 mis044_m1440 180 213 258 315 313 328 293 258 383 323 mis044_m1450 275 313 285 383 280 228 143 150 323 265 mis044_m1460 348 413 218 328 175 228 110 255 305 275 mis044_m1470 350 368 335 425 433 688 515 458 463 435 mis044_m1480 383 383 455 425 483 410 435 435 413 610 mis044_m1490 558 473 443 395 343 388 405 280 340 370 mis044_m1500 388 425 375 355 430 445 428 435 468 463 mis044_m1510 515 448 473 513 490 480 430 410 405 410 mis044_m1520 380 443 390 265 408 378 378 315 258 275 mis044_m1530 198 238 245 220 245 268 173 218 188 240 mis044_m1540 368 338 243 220 185 133 180 193 293 255 mis044_m1550 205 205 235 200 225 303 258 253 273 395 mis044_m1560 473 588 718 528 475 510 370 468 460 445 mis044_m1570 428 410 383 425 363 393 373 295 278 273 mis044_m1580 228 265 320 348 375 425 355 338 255 413 mis044_m1590 355 328 318 275 253 205 183 170 163 165 mis044_m1600 215 218 188 263 253 260 303 255 300 248 mis044_m1610 275 333 378 458 468 550 605 613 555 515 mis044_m1620 515 508 433 463 508 540 423 525 330 408 mis044_m1630 353 428 375 348 435 490 530 438 523 428 mis044_m1640 573 488 413 420 395 425 383 325 395 398 mis044_m1650 338 288 293 345 340 358 418 368 370 410 mis044_m1660 438 535 453 420 460 430 395 380 263 273 mis044_m1670 248 268 290 313 248 158 235 200 210 245 mis044_m1680 200 245 258 265 263 283 283 360 268 328 mis044_m1690 320 315 283 278 278 225 258 233 233 178 mis044_m1700 143 150 135 180 173 148 170 180 200 253 mis044_m1710 270 265 263 243 255 255 205 135 105 65 mis044_m1720 85 145 155 165 193 185 208 293 298 258 mis044_m1730 300 273 208 300 285 215 495 515 415 445 mis044_m1740 335 450 435 260 205 170 205 250 355 290 mis044_m1750 245 275 240 255 285 295 220 300 295 250 mis044_m1760 215 275 215 290 265 195 205 285 215 220 mis044_m1770 225 255 130 165 210 315 245 205 315 305 mis044_m1780 355 295 265 345 375 295 260 235 290 999 mis045_m1366 490 865 728 868 mis045_m1370 1065 1120 870 663 708 460 645 703 638 583 mis045_m1380 725 780 578 1018 1228 1390 1340 1510 1240 1240 mis045_m1390 1198 1490 1080 1243 1050 748 623 800 785 768 mis045_m1400 918 1110 1353 1295 1218 645 688 433 760 975 mis045_m1410 1120 983 1050 928 758 993 770 680 883 628 mis045_m1420 703 1288 843 893 840 868 843 745 765 750 mis045_m1430 608 645 688 963 820 860 835 705 605 555 mis045_m1440 710 790 798 643 573 458 280 330 380 480 mis045_m1450 538 470 415 450 340 315 373 360 430 545 mis045_m1460 498 548 420 675 463 430 358 345 243 225 mis045_m1470 300 375 330 293 360 328 388 288 453 475 mis045_m1480 588 855 470 645 658 450 508 423 490 420 mis045_m1490 510 450 345 470 678 603 435 225 290 313 mis045_m1500 365 340 388 340 308 280 298 305 210 255 mis045_m1510 268 163 253 300 278 243 253 215 280 303 mis045_m1520 340 408 303 270 250 233 248 268 215 215 mis045_m1530 190 228 203 228 215 243 195 170 140 218 mis045_m1540 250 165 215 110 118 150 253 185 245 278 mis045_m1550 220 220 255 255 165 145 153 213 205 268 mis045_m1560 333 398 413 413 330 265 360 265 290 308 mis045_m1570 300 260 228 170 228 275 218 168 155 125 mis045_m1580 110 148 168 188 190 190 215 180 120 120 mis045_m1590 173 173 193 145 173 200 123 103 133 93 mis045_m1600 88 68 95 98 110 235 150 165 158 160 mis045_m1610 163 155 168 258 290 313 428 310 300 158 mis045_m1620 178 235 198 143 148 183 160 320 155 305 mis045_m1630 200 305 310 345 415 455 475 425 430 225 mis045_m1640 505 540 345 495 310 445 430 410 555 565 mis045_m1650 570 685 470 545 530 615 660 780 495 580 mis045_m1660 545 865 575 575 670 460 370 500 440 480 mis045_m1670 555 460 385 480 999 mis046km1514 1110 995 1160 915 1075 1140 mis046km1520 1290 1190 860 715 695 675 790 745 728 753 mis046km1530 645 613 565 505 468 613 468 478 408 455 mis046km1540 613 430 425 435 420 455 465 483 485 513 mis046km1550 453 478 568 565 473 560 723 775 740 710 mis046km1560 610 733 778 665 705 868 903 860 1003 885 mis046km1570 995 998 1103 1000 1128 1030 923 768 693 590 mis046km1580 555 535 603 748 625 578 718 663 483 710 mis046km1590 708 445 480 393 450 425 245 273 198 218 mis046km1600 208 168 220 263 285 248 258 263 300 265 mis046km1610 405 533 488 700 673 825 1023 763 815 888 mis046km1620 890 780 783 715 800 803 535 745 435 925 mis046km1630 900 848 700 573 588 663 630 658 670 550 mis046km1640 953 730 793 748 765 750 693 518 600 628 mis046km1650 645 635 555 608 408 495 600 533 550 618 mis046km1660 473 663 523 410 568 633 865 678 583 655 mis046km1670 523 578 605 725 610 455 580 425 453 458 mis046km1680 413 530 535 580 543 453 553 538 528 403 mis046km1690 608 565 533 528 543 523 440 378 323 248 mis046km1700 303 305 328 290 308 358 345 343 323 368 mis046km1710 398 360 443 388 350 388 345 293 225 183 mis046km1720 240 133 228 193 263 248 313 278 283 308 mis046km1730 370 370 405 370 360 355 400 415 455 478 mis046km1740 490 398 485 340 295 270 335 238 363 335 mis046km1750 290 305 268 313 313 293 368 315 300 360 mis046km1760 345 365 260 448 368 263 330 335 238 253 mis046km1770 265 283 270 280 258 303 308 260 295 270 mis046km1780 330 320 298 298 440 283 283 328 300 258 mis046km1790 243 275 193 255 275 195 290 250 265 255 mis046km1800 230 255 293 245 213 193 175 185 178 140 mis046km1810 130 170 195 115 130 70 999 mis047_m1367 905 440 295 mis047_m1370 537 595 682 618 752 702 1278 650 555 902 mis047_m1380 723 783 703 837 723 773 732 688 683 693 mis047_m1390 607 997 972 990 822 757 640 657 620 557 mis047_m1400 560 802 937 897 770 817 807 817 752 763 mis047_m1410 783 895 860 897 910 992 775 780 905 842 mis047_m1420 782 1180 1202 1403 1202 1132 933 898 885 975 mis047_m1430 728 752 893 1022 992 983 853 848 807 733 mis047_m1440 632 640 835 720 733 830 847 922 858 882 mis047_m1450 807 748 798 813 682 677 723 733 685 580 mis047_m1460 775 1108 717 727 852 660 583 550 497 408 mis047_m1470 387 515 495 483 525 487 590 573 625 555 mis047_m1480 642 778 618 498 455 305 525 428 405 373 mis047_m1490 493 520 470 408 463 470 573 455 563 518 mis047_m1500 488 507 558 673 548 562 500 497 472 487 mis047_m1510 500 395 635 467 472 467 660 418 440 388 mis047_m1520 458 583 495 382 392 385 445 457 408 358 mis047_m1530 398 348 353 287 313 378 265 340 317 390 mis047_m1540 378 200 200 217 192 255 260 253 285 212 mis047_m1550 207 287 305 312 237 263 282 237 222 228 mis047_m1560 255 425 350 327 270 270 217 178 263 262 mis047_m1570 247 213 238 248 245 312 193 192 290 195 mis047_m1580 258 207 218 233 277 253 272 223 132 172 mis047_m1590 190 162 152 145 160 153 75 90 92 63 mis047_m1600 67 52 72 82 77 85 78 95 102 102 mis047_m1610 122 153 140 202 217 218 262 180 150 172 mis047_m1620 172 220 163 170 172 213 165 173 85 188 mis047_m1630 123 133 168 150 187 255 233 248 260 185 mis047_m1640 265 273 268 355 350 318 345 188 203 243 mis047_m1650 213 195 165 160 138 255 275 245 218 210 mis047_m1660 148 255 210 195 298 375 378 335 235 320 mis047_m1670 263 293 388 375 335 235 358 208 223 345 mis047_m1680 115 123 163 150 140 145 155 155 133 100 mis047_m1690 150 148 125 133 163 163 150 163 90 95 mis047_m1700 100 98 125 138 133 140 165 188 140 145 mis047_m1710 180 175 165 148 108 133 123 103 95 90 mis047_m1720 105 100 143 103 125 123 113 113 113 105 mis047_m1730 88 153 113 143 128 130 138 143 133 195 mis047_m1740 148 125 138 118 113 105 148 130 165 120 mis047_m1750 103 120 135 150 155 185 155 128 88 120 mis047_m1760 110 113 130 195 205 140 150 185 165 155 mis047_m1770 180 155 160 130 140 185 145 90 180 120 mis047_m1780 225 245 235 175 240 145 185 245 225 215 mis047_m1790 245 195 125 180 195 235 999 mis049km1342 830 920 610 675 595 650 600 695 mis049km1350 915 1050 1180 980 1095 1150 985 1060 1170 1325 mis049km1360 1310 1175 1130 1335 1380 1220 885 1125 823 1013 mis049km1370 1090 1045 1028 963 855 650 613 595 655 588 mis049km1380 735 708 820 763 1143 1083 990 698 820 878 mis049km1390 665 598 533 600 675 675 755 745 628 765 mis049km1400 725 738 713 665 688 718 500 500 540 560 mis049km1410 630 655 815 773 553 618 648 618 730 735 mis049km1420 570 700 530 573 615 455 425 415 433 485 mis049km1430 368 383 390 400 368 333 338 375 313 333 mis049km1440 263 303 430 470 530 523 433 383 390 373 mis049km1450 390 400 358 308 355 400 395 470 403 385 mis049km1460 380 410 363 475 445 365 563 500 508 430 mis049km1470 518 575 510 483 513 513 525 600 570 575 mis049km1480 600 763 580 505 555 393 553 610 555 503 mis049km1490 528 550 588 440 418 418 438 343 505 415 mis049km1500 413 455 518 498 500 403 413 443 430 470 mis049km1510 483 358 510 495 473 420 533 430 480 493 mis049km1520 548 525 390 423 480 508 548 538 403 455 mis049km1530 475 395 368 363 405 358 278 333 248 323 mis049km1540 338 253 348 330 358 418 350 360 400 430 mis049km1550 380 420 418 425 340 345 385 405 435 438 mis049km1560 463 553 490 490 513 518 540 443 495 513 mis049km1570 498 473 485 488 438 470 468 435 493 490 mis049km1580 425 475 508 615 513 473 575 553 295 560 mis049km1590 588 418 433 353 373 355 275 253 228 218 mis049km1600 230 200 205 238 248 263 218 235 285 260 mis049km1610 318 333 348 388 423 500 405 328 313 328 mis049km1620 380 423 348 440 380 440 343 455 268 450 mis049km1630 450 453 433 438 383 480 468 425 390 320 mis049km1640 463 443 453 460 535 478 513 273 348 418 mis049km1650 413 380 345 380 270 323 360 315 295 283 mis049km1660 223 275 275 285 358 373 370 368 318 325 mis049km1670 238 228 248 273 203 135 248 160 183 193 mis049km1680 150 203 213 208 198 185 218 273 230 145 mis049km1690 208 203 173 185 180 165 175 155 158 90 mis049km1700 130 105 118 120 153 123 168 160 100 120 mis049km1710 145 158 155 125 148 160 123 88 80 93 mis049km1720 85 70 150 108 130 110 123 88 125 100 mis049km1730 100 140 120 135 113 130 118 153 133 158 mis049km1740 140 118 163 120 113 105 153 110 125 123 mis049km1750 148 173 170 188 200 178 145 143 143 153 mis049km1760 130 178 148 160 160 175 173 205 135 160 mis049km1770 195 188 165 195 205 180 200 125 208 158 mis049km1780 235 213 215 203 263 230 999 mis051_m1185 947 845 1067 1237 1493 mis051_m1190 1177 905 1253 925 947 885 852 1050 712 825 mis051_m1200 1323 1363 1292 1168 1447 1103 1213 972 1128 1112 mis051_m1210 955 865 980 1003 1057 873 963 792 772 872 mis051_m1220 848 730 767 788 970 748 925 762 828 743 mis051_m1230 850 770 868 797 768 618 620 610 650 672 mis051_m1240 598 702 718 985 758 702 685 652 728 585 mis051_m1250 600 565 580 708 658 815 715 775 803 755 mis051_m1260 765 787 818 703 812 603 665 615 692 715 mis051_m1270 608 630 532 602 652 587 492 620 480 547 mis051_m1280 435 362 408 313 290 355 360 267 393 427 mis051_m1290 425 337 363 375 432 473 397 473 498 465 mis051_m1300 500 440 422 365 345 400 370 318 385 357 mis051_m1310 297 388 360 423 360 363 355 432 435 408 mis051_m1320 495 432 493 467 493 427 440 450 507 480 mis051_m1330 413 278 448 388 367 345 240 237 210 202 mis051_m1340 230 200 182 180 168 165 132 135 152 137 mis051_m1350 168 133 192 163 182 157 197 218 252 273 mis051_m1360 260 285 233 237 247 283 213 280 218 260 mis051_m1370 273 278 218 237 223 215 217 185 207 192 mis051_m1380 210 198 200 198 275 227 230 257 257 335 mis051_m1390 305 280 200 235 235 217 205 240 223 267 mis051_m1400 267 285 262 280 253 283 267 292 297 295 mis051_m1410 293 300 277 318 272 302 252 253 275 315 mis051_m1420 252 347 257 292 308 283 265 280 257 273 mis051_m1430 227 248 252 248 240 245 247 255 228 212 mis051_m1440 180 205 295 297 240 230 203 255 213 190 mis051_m1450 177 202 248 245 203 205 200 205 200 208 mis051_m1460 198 125 100 78 90 78 80 65 80 95 mis051_m1470 68 125 115 128 158 140 275 285 310 255 mis051_m1480 345 355 310 200 260 230 345 300 300 300 mis051_m1490 385 350 350 275 270 255 240 180 250 220 mis051_m1500 285 260 295 270 250 255 240 270 215 245 mis051_m1510 250 235 340 250 350 225 275 220 240 255 mis051_m1520 210 999 mis052_m1266 420 363 382 477 mis052_m1270 613 692 608 850 862 850 403 448 207 202 mis052_m1280 330 230 193 190 158 270 282 95 107 130 mis052_m1290 132 103 82 133 110 145 160 212 200 197 mis052_m1300 218 200 142 240 168 245 267 203 245 185 mis052_m1310 225 280 365 365 395 333 313 362 465 395 mis052_m1320 367 457 468 485 397 262 420 385 453 460 mis052_m1330 323 335 455 478 473 308 307 293 323 363 mis052_m1340 352 385 313 440 327 440 308 248 218 193 mis052_m1350 247 240 403 350 423 370 290 382 565 532 mis052_m1360 340 482 503 545 608 535 478 468 482 358 mis052_m1370 417 412 460 392 472 278 303 337 330 317 mis052_m1380 415 412 480 635 798 805 852 738 650 572 mis052_m1390 452 568 447 497 673 530 518 542 505 577 mis052_m1400 602 558 695 732 758 597 538 522 557 647 mis052_m1410 615 645 747 730 608 640 600 577 647 617 mis052_m1420 537 653 725 877 940 895 802 725 662 732 mis052_m1430 532 603 587 770 838 668 618 628 512 582 mis052_m1440 802 705 693 700 830 853 663 657 627 555 mis052_m1450 545 540 537 522 443 442 405 437 420 373 mis052_m1460 500 600 527 515 447 435 368 358 347 315 mis052_m1470 415 420 405 448 450 488 515 535 510 528 mis052_m1480 610 522 505 542 462 335 410 475 448 438 mis052_m1490 497 508 492 492 397 393 378 298 407 467 mis052_m1500 488 528 522 463 482 493 460 552 512 470 mis052_m1510 542 432 615 525 472 407 432 395 410 408 mis052_m1520 377 367 345 258 322 345 387 355 350 368 mis052_m1530 305 332 297 307 295 338 270 340 258 365 mis052_m1540 312 230 278 207 262 262 278 290 318 370 mis052_m1550 308 363 455 417 362 345 368 423 403 370 mis052_m1560 447 488 450 413 355 392 395 367 373 375 mis052_m1570 398 420 425 447 438 475 523 408 410 378 mis052_m1580 327 368 423 500 422 453 402 348 227 338 mis052_m1590 403 325 343 263 280 285 272 265 238 185 mis052_m1600 202 190 173 252 303 268 255 253 228 220 mis052_m1610 332 302 297 318 307 357 408 367 348 338 mis052_m1620 300 357 298 288 265 282 230 325 162 272 mis052_m1630 230 250 238 238 247 287 290 310 328 272 mis052_m1640 397 332 395 385 397 333 303 205 268 273 mis052_m1650 255 275 253 288 248 288 280 295 280 277 mis052_m1660 238 318 235 253 300 303 307 323 240 235 mis052_m1670 185 252 238 243 208 133 187 165 162 175 mis052_m1680 185 218 235 220 202 202 240 252 182 165 mis052_m1690 233 242 230 212 242 173 183 160 162 117 mis052_m1700 122 117 172 173 188 180 208 242 183 188 mis052_m1710 275 283 288 248 240 255 233 155 153 160 mis052_m1720 195 165 268 238 303 323 288 303 315 290 mis052_m1730 293 340 353 373 388 315 353 405 395 460 mis052_m1740 460 400 365 205 240 240 270 260 410 370 mis052_m1750 300 335 365 385 370 395 305 400 280 340 mis052_m1760 375 380 485 480 480 300 285 999 mis053_m1506 837 803 898 955 mis053_m1510 918 838 775 883 1062 660 447 398 355 308 mis053_m1520 332 323 243 182 270 232 303 358 265 265 mis053_m1530 170 235 217 222 202 185 150 228 235 252 mis053_m1540 347 340 230 238 307 278 348 350 438 433 mis053_m1550 347 368 453 445 455 523 630 597 535 758 mis053_m1560 903 1005 985 752 645 660 573 733 818 767 mis053_m1570 605 610 670 782 670 577 560 497 525 403 mis053_m1580 383 502 627 748 700 750 728 578 378 608 mis053_m1590 580 547 522 487 362 388 297 282 262 247 mis053_m1600 320 298 302 333 415 400 412 415 528 487 mis053_m1610 458 707 598 765 673 667 708 617 577 568 mis053_m1620 520 512 490 433 430 520 397 502 267 448 mis053_m1630 375 425 503 450 448 470 498 472 483 363 mis053_m1640 463 512 378 415 385 435 362 320 327 317 mis053_m1650 287 243 188 263 247 288 293 255 188 230 mis053_m1660 240 348 257 235 302 330 380 312 235 218 mis053_m1670 197 262 240 233 197 117 228 155 223 255 mis053_m1680 222 282 332 248 448 453 487 400 295 218 mis053_m1690 280 228 225 197 248 168 173 160 122 100 mis053_m1700 127 127 182 198 175 140 163 167 180 222 mis053_m1710 223 193 235 207 230 243 250 120 115 97 mis053_m1720 228 173 253 183 222 265 272 287 293 302 mis053_m1730 275 290 238 305 275 218 258 220 183 230 mis053_m1740 243 185 273 150 173 148 170 165 185 78 mis053_m1750 60 63 95 90 130 138 130 105 120 163 mis053_m1760 145 130 138 198 170 143 168 178 230 215 mis053_m1770 165 175 225 275 275 280 215 295 285 265 mis053_m1780 225 235 180 275 235 175 160 245 240 999 mis055_m1208 713 893 mis055_m1210 478 688 403 958 823 603 783 638 463 363 mis055_m1220 540 825 900 743 1118 678 900 718 548 768 mis055_m1230 750 583 530 543 435 438 448 450 525 703 mis055_m1240 423 685 763 625 568 723 703 500 543 500 mis055_m1250 648 580 488 585 690 693 583 615 618 608 mis055_m1260 660 478 515 525 453 368 455 458 430 498 mis055_m1270 463 570 508 625 603 478 445 403 365 405 mis055_m1280 408 395 395 318 328 370 328 243 260 303 mis055_m1290 285 280 235 210 253 290 333 335 268 275 mis055_m1300 268 245 140 250 190 193 265 233 203 185 mis055_m1310 168 218 215 223 235 225 283 378 370 360 mis055_m1320 400 343 318 345 353 355 338 363 380 435 mis055_m1330 398 318 273 423 458 390 273 265 265 258 mis055_m1340 253 248 235 260 210 235 308 203 140 198 mis055_m1350 195 208 200 153 208 180 148 185 208 253 mis055_m1360 210 210 210 223 235 220 155 175 145 145 mis055_m1370 190 190 208 215 223 163 178 205 193 230 mis055_m1380 220 228 260 253 313 235 258 278 268 328 mis055_m1390 325 350 175 290 230 163 233 285 288 260 mis055_m1400 275 338 348 365 353 325 295 290 310 348 mis055_m1410 395 348 475 518 450 503 395 518 560 488 mis055_m1420 433 478 438 435 533 373 410 363 423 350 mis055_m1430 255 318 303 390 448 375 335 325 270 383 mis055_m1440 428 393 388 365 403 410 340 298 320 260 mis055_m1450 250 248 260 283 235 203 190 235 188 190 mis055_m1460 225 253 220 283 225 205 178 185 143 150 mis055_m1470 158 178 123 145 218 165 188 175 175 213 mis055_m1480 275 310 270 270 310 278 323 335 320 393 mis055_m1490 360 303 343 260 325 335 250 168 220 250 mis055_m1500 263 250 278 218 223 230 238 250 215 235 mis055_m1510 233 185 310 305 295 255 308 288 208 148 mis055_m1520 160 200 203 215 370 335 338 318 283 338 mis055_m1530 273 290 298 268 283 183 93 143 143 163 mis055_m1540 180 138 143 135 160 195 228 223 250 243 mis055_m1550 235 255 238 240 288 348 343 345 353 355 mis055_m1560 378 390 388 313 370 355 355 260 320 275 mis055_m1570 310 305 375 400 365 345 195 275 235 225 mis055_m1580 290 340 355 260 260 320 220 120 999 mis057_m1399 560 mis057_m1400 497 645 627 837 817 625 535 682 803 695 mis057_m1410 812 912 978 782 825 992 923 865 1000 770 mis057_m1420 542 1057 958 833 788 573 730 857 795 842 mis057_m1430 743 792 818 895 1032 845 828 797 677 710 mis057_m1440 778 818 742 742 787 863 713 702 623 655 mis057_m1450 570 520 540 560 447 462 437 490 520 512 mis057_m1460 573 722 593 615 585 408 382 445 342 355 mis057_m1470 595 667 697 707 887 702 738 648 640 767 mis057_m1480 810 915 697 722 828 633 717 682 635 548 mis057_m1490 627 598 545 508 523 532 498 392 532 563 mis057_m1500 587 628 630 572 620 502 468 587 583 455 mis057_m1510 533 345 480 502 513 407 507 410 380 418 mis057_m1520 388 413 363 337 388 405 465 437 420 450 mis057_m1530 460 473 380 355 377 298 190 247 285 335 mis057_m1540 335 255 212 213 217 203 260 240 287 210 mis057_m1550 220 245 363 380 218 292 308 260 247 260 mis057_m1560 302 417 340 298 258 237 298 253 360 370 mis057_m1570 310 255 305 233 260 298 192 205 190 147 mis057_m1580 188 200 215 258 230 248 245 182 133 153 mis057_m1590 183 158 157 163 153 165 97 108 98 72 mis057_m1600 108 85 105 88 103 127 112 107 105 123 mis057_m1610 167 147 128 182 153 120 157 145 128 162 mis057_m1620 172 230 148 173 180 203 175 233 143 167 mis057_m1630 125 152 135 117 182 230 202 242 267 163 mis057_m1640 262 262 212 295 272 238 232 183 198 270 mis057_m1650 168 180 207 250 242 267 230 223 222 293 mis057_m1660 262 365 263 202 243 283 255 245 207 155 mis057_m1670 152 198 205 210 208 117 175 143 147 207 mis057_m1680 155 215 288 277 223 237 248 282 203 198 mis057_m1690 228 185 202 192 223 147 172 135 93 95 mis057_m1700 97 105 113 103 85 107 138 120 65 83 mis057_m1710 113 100 78 95 73 53 67 70 52 65 mis057_m1720 47 73 60 72 80 102 110 118 98 100 mis057_m1730 107 112 152 178 158 175 198 193 223 165 mis057_m1740 175 160 105 105 115 120 155 213 173 163 mis057_m1750 193 220 203 218 293 233 203 193 158 220 mis057_m1760 205 158 233 253 178 223 215 153 190 180 mis057_m1770 163 135 185 195 245 203 200 380 405 999 mis058_m1670 487 330 290 330 270 288 310 367 358 332 mis058_m1680 238 228 178 202 227 202 272 362 283 170 mis058_m1690 175 193 183 148 172 137 137 103 148 180 mis058_m1700 205 185 207 145 137 135 118 163 212 243 mis058_m1710 220 198 335 265 255 258 243 200 225 145 mis058_m1720 118 78 72 57 60 60 108 147 192 268 mis058_m1730 325 185 227 285 238 253 258 267 293 255 mis058_m1740 293 145 133 115 163 165 180 190 165 150 mis058_m1750 203 157 122 135 138 115 118 103 90 147 mis058_m1760 223 220 148 138 107 130 95 118 120 250 mis058_m1770 430 420 332 290 377 455 495 555 702 578 mis058_m1780 763 715 800 855 1282 850 837 1132 1240 1100 mis058_m1790 850 1010 865 1197 1113 722 987 1148 1222 972 mis058_m1800 915 822 730 875 732 603 775 1090 932 810 mis058_m1810 848 1185 1002 652 665 238 475 837 1235 997 mis058_m1820 897 595 860 1142 993 1050 897 850 858 1007 mis058_m1830 842 503 483 473 937 952 632 682 495 745 mis058_m1840 845 748 1025 640 708 723 1170 1015 855 778 mis058_m1850 700 572 700 855 722 628 942 980 713 868 mis058_m1860 697 930 963 1127 915 902 773 972 697 955 mis058_m1870 965 883 820 963 1102 1177 720 920 838 952 mis058_m1880 1195 1390 1270 1297 1147 1307 1340 1530 1268 1382 mis058_m1890 1180 1120 1043 1040 950 863 642 647 657 562 mis058_m1900 558 435 440 527 597 530 503 542 657 667 mis058_m1910 682 683 602 587 780 650 593 882 707 557 mis058_m1920 530 855 748 957 942 1028 745 963 1118 1222 mis058_m1930 1000 1017 1030 665 793 983 1237 1325 1140 1293 mis058_m1940 925 822 835 1222 1293 972 823 998 990 1342 mis058_m1950 1437 1325 1308 1218 1153 1040 1550 1412 1470 1378 mis058_m1960 1478 1548 785 700 595 545 885 760 615 580 mis058_m1970 675 600 525 999 mis059_m1517 990 1130 1060 mis059_m1520 1350 1295 1600 925 1095 985 1230 1205 800 925 mis059_m1530 685 590 585 633 705 830 588 505 448 535 mis059_m1540 610 673 520 548 600 828 840 853 1310 918 mis059_m1550 935 1005 1070 1070 998 965 1183 1155 1235 1363 mis059_m1560 1263 1403 1375 1308 1420 1488 1470 1865 1578 1138 mis059_m1570 1068 833 1178 1043 885 1213 915 733 760 718 mis059_m1580 695 810 875 1125 925 788 1128 948 503 710 mis059_m1590 763 625 628 610 660 613 418 443 483 485 mis059_m1600 458 378 438 455 570 578 525 528 468 458 mis059_m1610 593 590 470 645 738 748 935 648 785 883 mis059_m1620 758 893 703 958 750 848 675 810 493 828 mis059_m1630 673 773 803 765 925 905 870 930 815 685 mis059_m1640 885 1005 843 1005 918 935 820 620 843 873 mis059_m1650 768 763 705 703 545 698 688 858 688 633 mis059_m1660 430 758 573 538 823 710 658 718 518 670 mis059_m1670 538 693 748 743 523 390 568 368 405 515 mis059_m1680 433 543 573 505 545 415 558 735 593 365 mis059_m1690 575 693 593 430 455 345 373 280 308 260 mis059_m1700 260 278 368 268 283 370 210 240 160 215 mis059_m1710 305 410 275 295 195 233 185 160 103 128 mis059_m1720 148 118 130 110 168 143 140 185 195 273 mis059_m1730 325 138 145 148 145 130 150 170 228 268 mis059_m1740 170 150 125 110 60 98 160 213 233 225 mis059_m1750 173 300 163 223 233 213 213 163 153 143 mis059_m1760 195 210 195 200 218 228 230 155 138 165 mis059_m1770 243 178 135 135 195 243 235 185 193 248 mis059_m1780 303 338 358 315 368 258 258 233 228 190 mis059_m1790 210 200 185 165 198 245 265 245 260 223 mis059_m1800 245 243 215 180 140 185 225 200 165 205 mis059_m1810 155 245 999 mis060km1382 505 620 525 420 240 215 275 325 mis060km1390 280 375 365 280 355 535 500 465 515 758 mis060km1400 825 853 908 910 905 838 805 893 825 830 mis060km1410 1048 953 890 903 945 928 818 868 915 673 mis060km1420 628 1223 1238 1235 1320 1058 915 778 868 883 mis060km1430 760 708 718 728 755 628 525 500 495 445 mis060km1440 405 395 568 703 725 715 570 598 535 528 mis060km1450 473 475 455 420 413 463 428 495 505 565 mis060km1460 593 615 513 510 518 395 393 520 598 478 mis060km1470 563 593 655 650 670 588 650 573 545 595 mis060km1480 615 770 498 505 528 370 485 495 493 610 mis060km1490 605 600 538 365 368 385 405 370 433 385 mis060km1500 355 360 348 348 335 335 285 238 255 270 mis060km1510 328 265 365 323 390 328 308 280 285 308 mis060km1520 290 248 223 200 133 225 218 240 185 285 mis060km1530 200 168 175 158 173 155 148 138 153 175 mis060km1540 220 158 118 165 168 135 128 155 193 140 mis060km1550 128 153 155 103 90 130 140 125 130 165 mis060km1560 230 303 260 245 253 225 278 248 293 270 mis060km1570 233 250 315 355 353 418 408 350 340 290 mis060km1580 313 293 310 330 290 343 400 320 158 205 mis060km1590 260 250 243 283 293 228 200 210 178 160 mis060km1600 198 183 183 225 278 308 288 335 353 295 mis060km1610 328 335 280 440 438 435 448 330 368 360 mis060km1620 375 453 380 433 348 378 495 490 253 313 mis060km1630 203 243 193 233 263 375 298 298 295 268 mis060km1640 315 313 310 353 268 283 238 185 220 223 mis060km1650 210 195 173 205 173 218 263 233 210 233 mis060km1660 150 253 203 165 275 333 313 273 175 198 mis060km1670 145 160 188 185 168 115 168 123 143 153 mis060km1680 148 140 153 155 138 113 148 163 133 120 mis060km1690 188 195 173 190 183 170 170 193 138 123 mis060km1700 113 113 93 100 85 88 153 110 98 108 mis060km1710 138 999 mis061_m1435 1000 745 760 795 560 mis061_m1440 645 615 905 1070 815 850 810 775 690 685 mis061_m1450 645 765 520 485 445 495 500 705 695 980 mis061_m1460 810 1135 740 850 810 595 545 610 605 570 mis061_m1470 665 890 780 765 1040 800 760 625 595 750 mis061_m1480 835 975 655 660 665 425 550 608 588 568 mis061_m1490 530 600 443 330 503 453 455 350 525 503 mis061_m1500 523 658 730 598 650 505 468 525 438 465 mis061_m1510 545 385 500 538 650 505 500 493 540 555 mis061_m1520 520 508 410 508 430 535 653 623 568 570 mis061_m1530 505 490 475 403 445 563 340 360 385 420 mis061_m1540 495 363 398 308 418 460 445 415 400 293 mis061_m1550 278 353 380 375 283 398 393 405 490 463 mis061_m1560 408 463 475 400 350 358 390 348 285 268 mis061_m1570 298 308 375 435 418 528 413 383 440 375 mis061_m1580 473 505 653 943 805 768 1050 470 333 433 mis061_m1590 468 448 500 400 518 498 335 525 558 475 mis061_m1600 543 400 358 545 818 685 565 563 530 540 mis061_m1610 715 820 680 800 800 930 960 793 795 808 mis061_m1620 595 780 670 758 645 733 593 808 338 518 mis061_m1630 565 645 533 438 423 715 708 805 770 530 mis061_m1640 845 600 625 705 520 575 623 415 480 535 mis061_m1650 555 533 548 688 525 645 620 538 548 618 mis061_m1660 503 670 358 305 438 363 383 378 265 365 mis061_m1670 255 250 300 365 223 153 213 190 213 248 mis061_m1680 205 248 258 255 233 215 305 343 265 178 mis061_m1690 255 258 293 268 343 240 233 235 178 203 mis061_m1700 220 140 213 193 220 248 280 278 178 213 mis061_m1710 263 305 255 240 285 265 240 165 175 160 mis061_m1720 255 125 215 135 240 180 170 160 200 190 mis061_m1730 240 230 160 225 190 165 190 225 235 380 mis061_m1740 245 190 250 170 175 180 245 180 270 175 mis061_m1750 210 215 280 230 200 240 205 205 200 235 mis061_m1760 215 205 140 260 240 150 185 190 155 155 mis061_m1770 155 135 195 170 185 215 190 165 215 215 mis061_m1780 245 190 185 190 225 145 185 170 225 160 mis061_m1790 220 195 135 170 115 165 999 mis062_m1324 1540 1265 1038 1050 1348 1403 mis062_m1330 990 743 1353 1343 1305 1073 983 833 838 953 mis062_m1340 1298 1108 1020 1170 1003 1055 980 1028 868 1053 mis062_m1350 1208 1515 1575 1268 1415 1438 1193 1393 1543 1475 mis062_m1360 1783 1455 1360 1755 1758 1520 1208 1355 1248 1140 mis062_m1370 1445 1405 1255 1253 1343 1238 1015 815 883 688 mis062_m1380 685 688 838 715 1140 1150 1383 1000 1038 1015 mis062_m1390 825 943 853 970 648 633 685 990 853 1003 mis062_m1400 873 1068 1038 980 943 1105 895 1063 1003 1138 mis062_m1410 1098 1143 1113 1200 955 1090 900 995 1030 970 mis062_m1420 883 1073 1128 1125 1173 1178 940 840 873 970 mis062_m1430 908 828 868 980 822 750 763 712 787 742 mis062_m1440 757 697 890 892 748 773 652 788 773 678 mis062_m1450 607 578 595 522 523 470 470 443 450 480 mis062_m1460 505 533 453 473 423 375 402 427 405 372 mis062_m1470 397 417 508 502 593 530 535 493 545 573 mis062_m1480 637 753 505 475 517 395 523 632 602 527 mis062_m1490 490 487 405 373 452 352 463 372 477 470 mis062_m1500 447 428 433 443 477 423 390 388 338 367 mis062_m1510 380 327 470 500 485 482 560 418 412 410 mis062_m1520 302 348 333 348 412 443 440 460 442 418 mis062_m1530 403 435 398 395 443 438 352 448 428 497 mis062_m1540 498 440 433 402 377 362 397 463 442 390 mis062_m1550 372 435 403 435 352 423 442 433 448 463 mis062_m1560 505 572 532 445 445 438 445 450 517 460 mis062_m1570 475 473 543 528 517 528 423 377 452 350 mis062_m1580 415 425 480 568 520 487 525 470 283 382 mis062_m1590 435 448 378 325 365 317 273 318 258 278 mis062_m1600 303 287 292 380 372 373 340 327 375 320 mis062_m1610 402 420 367 432 447 457 440 387 382 432 mis062_m1620 372 417 360 352 350 390 342 383 218 322 mis062_m1630 330 307 258 255 287 323 372 372 340 260 mis062_m1640 382 365 388 458 403 395 412 342 382 387 mis062_m1650 367 318 340 363 312 350 353 362 348 368 mis062_m1660 307 420 372 325 415 405 425 408 348 365 mis062_m1670 315 360 355 415 315 213 303 228 238 255 mis062_m1680 225 245 250 280 250 263 275 258 205 198 mis062_m1690 250 270 240 255 248 228 225 208 180 135 mis062_m1700 155 128 133 153 185 163 180 203 138 210 mis062_m1710 235 203 220 155 168 165 148 130 113 105 mis062_m1720 108 103 140 148 215 155 175 170 140 135 mis062_m1730 140 160 190 225 165 160 190 145 175 175 mis062_m1740 185 110 165 105 115 140 140 105 160 135 mis062_m1750 125 105 120 110 135 145 135 130 105 115 mis062_m1760 135 120 85 130 130 70 165 130 110 100 mis062_m1770 70 90 110 105 75 90 70 65 90 80 mis062_m1780 140 115 120 100 125 135 125 95 100 70 mis062_m1790 65 65 60 50 50 45 40 55 999 mis063_m1556 435 405 375 440 mis063_m1560 620 695 665 480 450 365 305 285 310 350 mis063_m1570 320 245 210 230 145 230 320 340 320 265 mis063_m1580 225 220 265 340 225 240 315 420 355 595 mis063_m1590 520 435 365 395 285 220 145 100 85 100 mis063_m1600 165 165 195 215 240 255 325 335 300 290 mis063_m1610 345 475 540 660 925 1085 1168 1225 1008 708 mis063_m1620 588 543 388 383 393 460 470 535 323 495 mis063_m1630 408 370 373 410 480 580 595 528 543 458 mis063_m1640 655 613 615 655 548 498 625 535 568 545 mis063_m1650 473 388 328 423 380 473 573 568 508 545 mis063_m1660 403 625 545 445 615 575 700 795 548 525 mis063_m1670 458 553 505 560 480 435 470 358 335 428 mis063_m1680 430 468 580 550 620 520 588 525 528 583 mis063_m1690 578 503 480 570 575 543 638 538 465 303 mis063_m1700 313 260 360 370 330 388 613 650 518 433 mis063_m1710 458 550 503 433 473 435 393 270 230 180 mis063_m1720 245 215 328 308 355 385 538 505 440 493 mis063_m1730 558 460 510 645 565 545 678 635 653 810 mis063_m1740 620 513 635 378 393 338 413 405 500 463 mis063_m1750 438 498 463 550 575 593 493 575 465 493 mis063_m1760 505 513 420 635 730 663 715 670 423 403 mis063_m1770 380 435 430 385 378 508 438 365 458 393 mis063_m1780 563 588 710 910 1263 870 788 630 623 580 mis063_m1790 690 710 610 675 815 520 650 720 695 590 mis063_m1800 585 530 510 520 425 999 mis064_m1588 563 612 mis064_m1590 712 833 568 363 428 507 435 547 197 288 mis064_m1600 420 348 520 565 623 738 793 833 822 905 mis064_m1610 1025 1072 937 843 1263 1372 1335 1280 1353 1407 mis064_m1620 1018 1153 1165 1112 1068 1183 1170 1492 1030 1552 mis064_m1630 1532 1253 1132 1068 1132 1285 1420 1378 1550 1273 mis064_m1640 1927 1570 1537 1505 1362 1618 1837 1372 1545 1625 mis064_m1650 1292 998 877 915 850 938 1265 1182 1082 1208 mis064_m1660 1053 1553 1572 1113 1573 1480 1720 1448 1183 1163 mis064_m1670 837 743 777 945 825 435 683 580 627 685 mis064_m1680 628 652 710 777 718 683 860 990 797 732 mis064_m1690 833 773 655 693 725 623 652 632 480 408 mis064_m1700 498 383 473 405 472 470 503 572 542 650 mis064_m1710 663 588 543 485 535 597 498 413 350 315 mis064_m1720 400 310 402 385 462 558 642 530 595 565 mis064_m1730 565 585 425 645 648 727 773 670 638 848 mis064_m1740 753 443 663 418 463 473 528 503 683 480 mis064_m1750 422 380 402 413 380 430 340 333 320 385 mis064_m1760 333 337 277 383 368 293 377 428 317 320 mis064_m1770 232 223 230 248 265 367 330 287 313 278 mis064_m1780 372 383 487 445 523 310 352 320 372 383 mis064_m1790 420 425 290 475 445 999 mis065_m1506 230 330 365 405 mis065_m1510 335 375 480 410 360 355 440 280 300 370 mis065_m1520 315 370 330 280 410 350 455 380 340 335 mis065_m1530 365 325 235 270 265 235 195 245 260 390 mis065_m1540 330 300 260 285 255 335 320 345 405 355 mis065_m1550 360 355 410 420 430 415 505 505 435 518 mis065_m1560 605 673 670 655 415 408 448 460 440 333 mis065_m1570 445 468 545 490 465 393 360 310 275 268 mis065_m1580 250 260 260 310 280 285 313 233 108 148 mis065_m1590 420 530 400 280 253 208 128 113 98 100 mis065_m1600 40 73 63 70 88 95 83 95 100 138 mis065_m1610 153 215 208 283 285 235 320 308 335 310 mis065_m1620 300 308 263 223 230 338 365 473 430 1588 mis065_m1630 1058 453 323 225 195 300 295 330 360 1210 mis065_m1640 1945 1420 1363 995 828 783 805 553 810 703 mis065_m1650 553 750 770 960 920 995 975 943 910 1048 mis065_m1660 830 1198 923 740 878 758 745 725 683 748 mis065_m1670 710 695 615 958 688 435 738 565 373 568 mis065_m1680 568 695 775 755 710 708 738 935 928 1228 mis065_m1690 1430 1208 955 1053 1135 950 1195 955 773 540 mis065_m1700 518 513 585 505 465 485 425 440 413 445 mis065_m1710 538 538 558 545 483 558 598 503 445 378 mis065_m1720 385 223 360 315 368 388 385 333 355 353 mis065_m1730 393 303 188 233 260 300 340 440 395 535 mis065_m1740 355 295 378 280 298 345 423 335 493 473 mis065_m1750 388 398 418 413 413 430 365 368 328 388 mis065_m1760 400 388 418 590 488 330 370 400 300 338 mis065_m1770 345 248 335 303 288 333 275 288 348 330 mis065_m1780 338 418 643 620 658 395 323 433 590 415 mis065_m1790 435 508 353 395 323 303 400 415 390 180 mis065_m1800 170 180 285 185 165 145 110 150 125 135 mis065_m1810 105 185 170 140 120 120 100 130 125 125 mis065_m1820 90 85 999 mis066_m1475 180 200 145 235 170 mis066_m1480 185 160 160 235 275 170 255 375 305 350 mis066_m1490 370 150 120 175 105 125 190 135 155 190 mis066_m1500 205 210 525 965 1055 980 1205 1115 1125 715 mis066_m1510 960 695 790 705 705 540 900 853 730 628 mis066_m1520 743 785 893 390 935 815 960 630 420 565 mis066_m1530 955 930 675 620 535 738 535 730 633 908 mis066_m1540 1108 923 828 650 825 780 960 995 998 953 mis066_m1550 735 1015 1033 1390 1138 1080 1008 993 1230 1260 mis066_m1560 1393 1690 1810 1543 1273 1278 1380 1093 1425 1265 mis066_m1570 1070 1333 1373 1273 1125 1365 1100 838 848 810 mis066_m1580 638 640 825 1228 1355 1030 1240 970 465 780 mis066_m1590 810 633 725 618 473 380 320 368 485 488 mis066_m1600 463 295 448 420 663 608 533 618 603 483 mis066_m1610 728 863 765 935 1070 1293 1683 1168 925 903 mis066_m1620 730 723 655 628 685 743 578 608 390 458 mis066_m1630 423 573 648 625 628 773 808 783 940 658 mis066_m1640 963 860 683 810 760 833 908 680 608 620 mis066_m1650 490 493 480 578 463 583 668 623 590 618 mis066_m1660 518 965 525 415 660 810 770 660 458 425 mis066_m1670 343 510 428 320 320 240 273 140 185 478 mis066_m1680 378 345 425 345 305 318 420 505 570 530 mis066_m1690 510 368 398 483 398 300 278 320 360 193 mis066_m1700 135 103 233 250 243 113 175 238 200 270 mis066_m1710 220 300 245 225 215 215 999 mis067_m1422 1300 1555 1560 1478 1313 1220 898 1193 mis067_m1430 1068 1088 1138 1055 1170 1258 1278 1173 1190 1138 mis067_m1440 1065 755 1088 1013 1095 1193 1085 1140 1148 1185 mis067_m1450 980 868 868 863 750 715 645 658 720 808 mis067_m1460 765 960 728 703 653 585 543 760 685 613 mis067_m1470 685 650 755 693 843 798 893 888 825 828 mis067_m1480 940 1080 823 738 655 495 600 758 735 675 mis067_m1490 755 915 713 658 675 603 708 515 785 805 mis067_m1500 718 783 878 718 760 678 733 840 708 703 mis067_m1510 800 603 880 778 735 648 835 715 708 723 mis067_m1520 610 705 683 610 718 675 825 825 670 745 mis067_m1530 675 683 680 733 740 648 495 595 478 608 mis067_m1540 508 350 418 363 385 405 345 433 505 380 mis067_m1550 343 413 468 413 340 443 478 525 510 523 mis067_m1560 548 638 480 455 438 440 458 410 445 575 mis067_m1570 488 475 573 643 550 508 428 400 385 345 mis067_m1580 400 315 385 430 365 350 453 288 185 208 mis067_m1590 265 210 190 218 268 218 120 140 65 75 mis067_m1600 55 70 90 125 125 95 85 120 140 140 mis067_m1610 105 170 185 165 170 135 145 140 150 160 mis067_m1620 115 115 100 130 120 155 75 999 mis068_m1477 183 155 203 mis068_m1480 170 178 140 173 173 115 113 165 178 225 mis068_m1490 158 143 120 165 198 295 243 183 245 293 mis068_m1500 278 260 290 153 258 313 255 263 288 440 mis068_m1510 408 283 323 305 380 278 303 178 225 258 mis068_m1520 565 618 298 235 583 728 715 778 643 738 mis068_m1530 803 690 638 588 530 543 638 735 763 768 mis068_m1540 628 545 573 623 590 448 528 593 525 670 mis068_m1550 485 528 403 413 510 645 613 548 560 625 mis068_m1560 720 775 700 488 460 395 353 383 458 418 mis068_m1570 510 433 438 563 445 483 423 548 648 445 mis068_m1580 375 498 415 628 640 588 553 468 243 478 mis068_m1590 383 343 378 348 318 333 225 195 208 273 mis068_m1600 293 283 403 543 553 493 668 513 503 350 mis068_m1610 548 558 588 553 600 558 440 360 353 422 mis068_m1620 417 387 647 402 430 405 318 517 292 462 mis068_m1630 252 282 287 328 477 595 557 367 410 205 mis068_m1640 297 287 302 435 372 357 390 297 410 433 mis068_m1650 355 255 220 243 215 308 278 292 257 283 mis068_m1660 228 343 287 227 337 345 365 265 210 238 mis068_m1670 192 173 235 267 188 132 265 163 175 243 mis068_m1680 225 230 268 275 240 230 268 295 315 362 mis068_m1690 400 330 235 227 257 220 268 278 213 137 mis068_m1700 178 215 265 253 247 195 270 257 153 182 mis068_m1710 230 250 223 203 292 247 243 203 247 192 mis068_m1720 230 203 342 248 323 298 310 275 233 198 mis068_m1730 167 222 195 283 270 232 260 268 293 377 mis068_m1740 295 235 305 298 285 277 312 277 300 238 mis068_m1750 205 240 250 293 313 280 278 237 212 290 mis068_m1760 270 300 255 357 313 248 282 342 257 297 mis068_m1770 268 283 235 262 238 310 298 232 348 288 mis068_m1780 387 378 363 433 595 448 423 505 475 412 mis068_m1790 457 453 405 395 387 408 447 355 312 252 mis068_m1800 273 292 333 283 332 268 280 318 277 223 mis068_m1810 222 315 288 232 228 163 180 193 133 150 mis068_m1820 133 107 227 257 273 377 303 330 330 362 mis068_m1830 377 347 305 335 387 332 235 305 245 315 mis068_m1840 365 357 393 238 390 385 415 427 335 338 mis068_m1850 308 220 267 240 252 235 290 325 252 262 mis068_m1860 270 297 278 287 238 237 268 357 347 310 mis068_m1870 340 238 247 300 363 368 283 330 343 363 mis068_m1880 333 400 308 288 318 345 283 325 310 358 mis068_m1890 268 313 420 280 290 305 305 340 270 195 mis068_m1900 999 mis069_m1405 590 440 490 580 575 mis069_m1410 585 710 705 635 530 630 640 505 575 685 mis069_m1420 660 915 840 865 895 920 690 680 635 700 mis069_m1430 610 550 605 690 585 550 515 505 500 550 mis069_m1440 555 540 645 720 815 640 610 690 555 575 mis069_m1450 445 500 500 445 470 395 400 465 445 590 mis069_m1460 525 695 490 460 395 300 450 365 385 325 mis069_m1470 400 570 420 438 420 390 478 448 478 515 mis069_m1480 550 563 498 460 565 378 613 608 548 530 mis069_m1490 570 598 598 543 553 423 463 388 605 585 mis069_m1500 528 515 610 533 550 510 483 573 480 535 mis069_m1510 543 405 590 573 545 410 493 460 495 395 mis069_m1520 423 525 430 380 455 408 470 468 403 475 mis069_m1530 478 393 383 383 360 345 335 403 365 435 mis069_m1540 435 308 355 318 345 390 385 415 388 365 mis069_m1550 323 403 435 385 350 358 393 358 405 423 mis069_m1560 483 458 355 380 390 395 378 210 328 245 mis069_m1570 310 333 313 315 305 343 283 243 273 248 mis069_m1580 263 260 330 333 285 255 230 165 130 143 mis069_m1590 203 205 188 178 205 220 178 208 165 130 mis069_m1600 138 113 145 163 165 180 163 145 125 138 mis069_m1610 190 175 120 178 193 193 188 173 168 178 mis069_m1620 185 195 188 165 180 238 178 218 105 228 mis069_m1630 170 200 205 160 173 248 195 213 238 183 mis069_m1640 303 290 255 305 283 315 330 213 258 243 mis069_m1650 225 260 250 258 183 240 205 208 203 233 mis069_m1660 185 263 195 183 225 210 233 265 198 235 mis069_m1670 208 245 223 218 188 138 205 140 130 175 mis069_m1680 163 178 175 190 148 143 163 168 128 108 mis069_m1690 190 180 173 180 180 150 150 145 163 118 mis069_m1700 148 145 155 150 125 118 148 138 108 143 mis069_m1710 143 155 135 135 145 145 140 115 135 150 mis069_m1720 135 125 140 123 143 83 108 153 160 148 mis069_m1730 173 160 140 160 163 160 153 150 183 205 mis069_m1740 213 185 235 198 188 208 198 213 328 338 mis069_m1750 295 328 275 275 243 233 190 253 175 203 mis069_m1760 208 218 155 255 220 180 188 193 145 190 mis069_m1770 185 165 168 168 215 220 183 175 243 180 mis069_m1780 238 203 243 230 283 220 218 280 285 243 mis069_m1790 248 285 258 220 260 243 268 270 258 233 mis069_m1800 198 190 265 253 310 265 220 193 203 188 mis069_m1810 200 210 178 83 170 193 175 153 138 190 mis069_m1820 160 153 183 193 188 265 228 293 210 218 mis069_m1830 200 238 180 160 180 105 165 155 155 200 mis069_m1840 150 140 100 95 130 75 90 50 115 100 mis069_m1850 70 90 115 95 105 100 70 75 40 75 mis069_m1860 100 999 mis070_m1365 985 870 942 992 982 mis070_m1370 1050 1242 590 903 825 1003 930 850 868 692 mis070_m1380 828 1000 780 1158 1500 1168 1318 888 825 868 mis070_m1390 943 1027 738 792 708 915 917 1090 1028 853 mis070_m1400 858 1072 1165 1113 978 1012 863 967 923 1000 mis070_m1410 1152 1257 1182 1262 1123 1390 1302 1157 1453 1397 mis070_m1420 1427 1613 1337 1365 1463 1308 1177 1252 1085 1528 mis070_m1430 1213 1163 1122 1523 1447 1335 1223 1338 1163 1098 mis070_m1440 975 1115 1255 1083 1213 1077 977 1007 885 942 mis070_m1450 992 898 888 737 802 725 717 713 690 718 mis070_m1460 782 1025 662 687 683 537 765 727 685 515 mis070_m1470 563 672 660 637 723 853 785 725 805 758 mis070_m1480 832 1027 835 867 752 610 847 983 912 863 mis070_m1490 1015 1070 1208 972 848 790 738 557 765 653 mis070_m1500 822 777 712 580 637 688 633 722 700 752 mis070_m1510 792 628 918 948 950 858 980 850 840 775 mis070_m1520 688 703 587 647 513 583 697 740 713 688 mis070_m1530 603 585 648 547 625 578 503 527 488 525 mis070_m1540 642 432 422 387 465 520 507 543 528 433 mis070_m1550 418 532 757 605 460 657 663 568 585 603 mis070_m1560 647 982 978 793 702 793 788 630 808 787 mis070_m1570 893 882 1005 962 930 1060 710 623 740 660 mis070_m1580 755 687 725 773 748 687 748 717 432 520 mis070_m1590 582 483 478 508 427 492 350 373 463 450 mis070_m1600 425 375 377 400 500 478 428 463 470 398 mis070_m1610 542 678 620 725 723 738 753 603 608 763 mis070_m1620 615 840 970 900 880 915 725 895 520 1140 mis070_m1630 995 1085 1070 995 845 940 1005 1165 1325 895 mis070_m1640 1235 950 1095 1075 1010 1050 1145 999 mis071_m1446 645 633 513 633 mis071_m1450 675 720 645 580 440 558 518 475 443 480 mis071_m1460 430 360 268 318 253 283 290 280 230 223 mis071_m1470 248 280 283 360 438 470 358 443 545 433 mis071_m1480 575 620 665 458 400 338 400 480 498 488 mis071_m1490 543 623 523 590 483 465 435 345 458 395 mis071_m1500 525 760 680 548 560 515 635 685 615 563 mis071_m1510 555 425 663 618 645 695 678 553 758 568 mis071_m1520 645 768 550 595 693 563 743 575 473 718 mis071_m1530 555 545 528 655 600 578 573 678 540 615 mis071_m1540 720 585 713 475 470 473 633 580 605 600 mis071_m1550 395 510 500 505 433 438 533 608 495 610 mis071_m1560 575 843 765 710 603 523 725 620 740 713 mis071_m1570 735 590 645 708 663 900 780 680 703 628 mis071_m1580 465 590 738 875 1080 1070 1088 840 515 655 mis071_m1590 793 575 500 588 420 343 225 270 233 223 mis071_m1600 290 265 250 225 370 363 375 355 413 340 mis071_m1610 525 563 500 655 635 633 775 780 690 585 mis071_m1620 515 518 385 388 453 465 303 438 240 238 mis071_m1630 220 265 280 285 405 478 420 423 525 398 mis071_m1640 628 630 410 445 338 325 353 378 478 478 mis071_m1650 360 323 368 370 385 458 355 398 303 378 mis071_m1660 348 500 338 358 423 300 310 335 308 265 mis071_m1670 258 330 363 445 418 225 238 208 203 203 mis071_m1680 245 325 308 163 148 225 270 260 223 180 mis071_m1690 183 193 200 178 215 105 115 90 73 68 mis071_m1700 50 123 155 128 115 168 153 165 208 248 mis071_m1710 208 153 188 175 160 158 115 83 168 193 mis071_m1720 125 163 158 208 223 223 200 258 225 225 mis071_m1730 255 253 258 253 230 275 320 283 325 298 mis071_m1740 233 235 160 155 198 270 320 315 280 253 mis071_m1750 268 268 243 265 280 250 250 310 250 220 mis071_m1760 305 365 250 355 310 195 265 310 270 205 mis071_m1770 999 mis073km1578 975 875 mis073km1580 1018 890 1190 1670 1798 1825 2118 1820 1093 1193 mis073km1590 1218 805 1268 1110 1055 935 755 805 818 698 mis073km1600 945 765 743 760 1095 980 793 910 740 570 mis073km1610 845 968 1485 1468 1168 1043 1170 985 1048 1235 mis073km1620 1153 1090 905 830 720 1573 1033 1318 900 1128 mis073km1630 723 765 593 530 605 753 890 1023 1273 830 mis073km1640 1578 1368 1548 1565 1405 1210 1013 485 670 655 mis073km1650 470 408 448 470 313 455 488 428 550 510 mis073km1660 403 718 485 453 530 580 600 565 533 675 mis073km1670 410 425 488 510 328 115 358 173 215 238 mis073km1680 180 190 218 263 210 215 320 398 310 240 mis073km1690 455 430 413 450 565 405 518 378 330 158 mis073km1700 140 135 158 175 203 163 215 278 168 208 mis073km1710 323 328 340 270 280 298 190 145 125 130 mis073km1720 200 160 235 178 293 268 243 263 300 268 mis073km1730 263 288 240 420 338 285 343 398 320 410 mis073km1740 330 238 340 230 230 218 240 208 275 178 mis073km1750 210 190 215 263 260 383 345 320 273 255 mis073km1760 230 250 170 268 325 233 228 270 208 215 mis073km1770 208 215 235 210 220 318 275 210 315 240 mis073km1780 378 388 413 305 460 335 335 413 440 308 mis073km1790 343 263 268 303 250 273 363 343 403 298 mis073km1800 275 338 475 418 408 285 325 320 218 158 mis073km1810 88 275 223 999 mis074_m1483 970 785 630 995 1130 900 930 mis074_m1490 870 875 705 670 740 680 820 560 900 720 mis074_m1500 850 905 815 730 730 655 825 803 710 648 mis074_m1510 708 585 930 813 855 748 930 778 830 843 mis074_m1520 683 765 703 695 823 833 933 975 945 888 mis074_m1530 785 715 733 753 725 498 585 695 623 668 mis074_m1540 715 595 565 590 560 493 495 603 570 470 mis074_m1550 438 580 635 610 505 608 775 700 703 683 mis074_m1560 798 973 678 615 515 520 583 508 603 645 mis074_m1570 658 568 708 668 620 645 478 485 520 360 mis074_m1580 463 393 418 555 538 625 588 515 318 433 mis074_m1590 478 410 405 403 453 500 350 333 250 220 mis074_m1600 275 238 290 288 335 365 313 315 340 340 mis074_m1610 408 515 383 530 505 448 498 515 465 560 mis074_m1620 478 573 498 515 515 578 448 533 265 440 mis074_m1630 303 370 310 360 395 473 485 558 588 300 mis074_m1640 500 448 433 513 425 378 238 170 245 253 mis074_m1650 250 280 310 360 230 315 215 185 230 340 mis074_m1660 235 430 285 270 320 305 350 310 255 295 mis074_m1670 245 335 300 305 245 100 235 140 145 195 mis074_m1680 140 140 155 999 mis075km1347 1168 932 860 mis075km1350 1017 1553 1757 1683 1463 1505 1580 1880 1303 1295 mis075km1360 1183 1338 1170 1225 1287 1017 1055 1190 1023 990 mis075km1370 935 1043 1117 1105 997 928 903 935 962 908 mis075km1380 1007 963 868 900 1240 1118 1203 1165 1185 1283 mis075km1390 1183 1227 830 820 767 847 1043 1177 982 1095 mis075km1400 1045 1097 1132 1250 972 1112 788 933 1020 1110 mis075km1410 1110 1155 1342 1150 960 1027 795 777 1062 1092 mis075km1420 905 1057 993 1235 1283 992 903 957 1125 1238 mis075km1430 793 767 870 963 992 842 725 880 770 780 mis075km1440 938 750 1048 1087 945 925 680 862 792 800 mis075km1450 688 628 708 725 633 612 630 672 757 652 mis075km1460 877 912 628 635 603 460 533 655 587 505 mis075km1470 578 590 622 675 788 793 723 630 580 623 mis075km1480 593 670 495 572 508 448 538 540 582 545 mis075km1490 500 453 425 317 323 335 325 237 403 363 mis075km1500 383 393 422 357 368 340 363 365 333 363 mis075km1510 402 315 457 435 467 395 457 420 410 390 mis075km1520 407 442 408 418 378 447 485 490 478 462 mis075km1530 427 417 422 397 455 382 347 377 373 398 mis075km1540 430 355 285 330 292 277 360 398 390 330 mis075km1550 267 345 428 360 350 358 503 458 510 492 mis075km1560 497 698 668 465 543 477 420 457 525 567 mis075km1570 523 473 587 565 565 530 438 400 445 345 mis075km1580 422 380 488 608 500 537 603 498 338 388 mis075km1590 450 368 438 387 373 427 293 292 247 243 mis075km1600 287 272 252 292 343 342 337 420 498 358 mis075km1610 455 542 477 560 535 513 443 502 467 503 mis075km1620 465 547 507 552 503 540 395 592 332 550 mis075km1630 402 450 423 440 423 540 530 463 488 328 mis075km1640 448 408 423 485 450 425 500 357 447 435 mis075km1650 343 310 278 330 260 312 347 263 257 317 mis075km1660 255 333 340 267 380 332 382 342 288 345 mis075km1670 255 278 325 332 230 142 298 222 227 255 mis075km1680 247 277 287 313 278 255 295 370 258 190 mis075km1690 302 305 295 273 325 273 255 207 185 130 mis075km1700 172 167 213 212 203 165 225 273 210 248 mis075km1710 270 238 248 258 300 273 223 143 95 68 mis075km1720 130 133 140 173 193 228 213 223 213 183 mis075km1730 178 205 165 190 185 168 213 200 225 250 mis075km1740 210 275 305 215 195 180 210 180 195 185 mis075km1750 195 205 215 200 210 225 260 185 160 190 mis075km1760 200 170 160 190 180 145 175 145 145 165 mis075km1770 115 115 145 130 165 205 170 135 185 105 mis075km1780 145 140 170 205 245 170 150 225 210 200 mis075km1790 205 205 170 195 220 195 255 265 325 285 mis075km1800 300 315 335 320 250 190 210 180 195 155 mis075km1810 175 235 210 135 145 80 999 mis077_m1377 400 398 505 mis077_m1380 525 717 575 1210 1475 1357 1573 1353 517 867 mis077_m1390 718 872 435 627 752 882 903 823 750 1008 mis077_m1400 892 1270 1587 1497 1583 1437 1335 1580 1575 1527 mis077_m1410 1835 1738 2087 1725 1422 1803 1600 1672 2087 1780 mis077_m1420 1803 2027 1933 1752 1645 1623 1703 1938 1887 1887 mis077_m1430 1358 1678 1587 2027 1992 1735 1590 1493 1493 1405 mis077_m1440 1653 1313 1487 1377 1575 1702 1352 1350 1413 1132 mis077_m1450 1350 1188 1070 1110 817 1062 1130 1040 1163 925 mis077_m1460 983 1218 740 742 588 700 582 898 705 502 mis077_m1470 562 642 703 612 772 557 650 605 510 585 mis077_m1480 872 912 603 745 957 663 658 785 657 772 mis077_m1490 882 897 690 657 623 783 698 478 678 770 mis077_m1500 1030 1087 1092 898 895 842 687 827 967 972 mis077_m1510 952 647 1033 837 783 728 817 747 785 783 mis077_m1520 868 967 730 665 878 850 865 753 695 817 mis077_m1530 775 645 673 580 502 537 382 437 450 555 mis077_m1540 622 518 387 365 425 492 632 718 768 623 mis077_m1550 538 702 742 697 573 828 925 852 702 792 mis077_m1560 807 1272 1128 982 817 883 842 715 943 843 mis077_m1570 853 850 958 895 807 957 797 562 670 632 mis077_m1580 605 622 642 818 702 763 637 613 300 420 mis077_m1590 460 402 482 418 333 330 222 190 102 88 mis077_m1600 83 67 105 120 108 95 100 130 133 185 mis077_m1610 210 248 270 308 267 387 352 398 437 472 mis077_m1620 325 387 348 438 428 480 407 295 418 607 mis077_m1630 643 577 668 547 903 827 723 878 533 690 mis077_m1640 493 468 635 538 405 325 303 360 358 290 mis077_m1650 420 420 480 375 470 530 470 455 630 620 mis077_m1660 970 470 370 405 385 440 490 999 mis078_m1652 965 1120 1040 1200 1758 1878 1503 1303 mis078_m1660 1178 2025 1560 1223 1605 1153 1515 1295 868 928 mis078_m1670 738 888 850 975 665 448 663 543 490 683 mis078_m1680 698 760 658 630 625 578 680 763 408 450 mis078_m1690 683 658 503 470 538 463 600 513 430 283 mis078_m1700 463 358 538 425 375 320 528 508 358 540 mis078_m1710 663 673 680 488 665 665 578 278 368 290 mis078_m1720 478 260 378 225 408 390 445 320 370 348 mis078_m1730 315 253 128 373 315 170 258 758 828 953 mis078_m1740 773 453 598 310 300 260 315 253 390 313 mis078_m1750 248 270 455 590 1158 738 305 240 195 193 mis078_m1760 218 230 238 473 390 298 415 363 248 288 mis078_m1770 315 170 298 273 350 478 365 358 360 365 mis078_m1780 370 338 485 495 398 343 405 365 585 999 mis080_m1602 160 175 55 135 130 65 40 70 mis080_m1610 85 80 40 85 45 60 65 60 45 60 mis080_m1620 60 60 55 55 120 138 140 168 98 125 mis080_m1630 53 105 95 103 205 313 333 405 408 140 mis080_m1640 353 395 370 383 273 368 380 315 370 328 mis080_m1650 328 320 293 278 208 303 213 198 218 363 mis080_m1660 318 603 350 325 430 468 493 413 413 393 mis080_m1670 333 483 430 485 458 235 363 248 180 265 mis080_m1680 245 283 403 460 343 340 363 500 288 275 mis080_m1690 280 268 298 293 528 318 323 293 213 163 mis080_m1700 233 233 230 265 263 275 390 398 308 363 mis080_m1710 430 450 328 275 285 213 198 108 125 88 mis080_m1720 168 113 163 123 233 213 208 230 270 303 mis080_m1730 248 210 153 265 255 180 225 278 285 425 mis080_m1740 353 223 360 188 235 218 313 275 453 278 mis080_m1750 290 300 480 423 513 570 485 423 348 335 mis080_m1760 415 410 403 538 568 363 455 613 305 380 mis080_m1770 375 298 265 310 308 560 415 250 400 350 mis080_m1780 553 508 643 588 708 493 500 513 678 470 mis080_m1790 503 355 999 mis081_m1379 1660 mis081_m1380 1730 1680 1845 1805 2210 2035 2035 1685 1410 1665 mis081_m1390 1368 1500 1193 1370 1190 1130 1308 1665 1453 1785 mis081_m1400 1813 1740 1478 1455 1763 1798 1133 1213 1358 1413 mis081_m1410 1493 1278 1348 1153 1045 1128 900 910 1163 1093 mis081_m1420 968 1403 1075 1365 1520 1183 1020 1025 1003 963 mis081_m1430 890 985 1113 1248 915 828 838 718 703 808 mis081_m1440 785 548 978 963 878 928 613 730 875 708 mis081_m1450 800 595 688 698 455 613 500 535 533 553 mis081_m1460 540 518 375 383 410 338 253 310 288 273 mis081_m1470 278 328 353 425 518 368 460 360 365 405 mis081_m1480 615 638 490 533 570 370 550 635 665 675 mis081_m1490 688 590 415 318 453 408 453 325 460 433 mis081_m1500 575 550 403 623 743 595 630 755 695 553 mis081_m1510 735 493 660 658 633 520 680 533 508 628 mis081_m1520 478 588 468 555 580 605 510 598 548 460 mis081_m1530 328 383 403 260 363 528 418 438 403 505 mis081_m1540 538 393 445 453 460 448 395 558 583 495 mis081_m1550 483 593 638 595 458 620 638 693 638 673 mis081_m1560 658 695 605 533 455 478 575 583 663 565 mis081_m1570 598 503 608 540 550 715 400 383 475 343 mis081_m1580 463 450 435 580 685 818 690 663 345 450 mis081_m1590 418 418 358 340 368 408 190 333 278 343 mis081_m1600 295 278 225 348 453 370 340 353 400 348 mis081_m1610 625 518 393 583 545 530 598 488 510 665 mis081_m1620 538 735 510 505 580 640 515 665 293 505 mis081_m1630 395 495 395 275 435 585 533 590 620 220 mis081_m1640 670 575 583 600 400 545 473 383 425 485 mis081_m1650 370 463 463 503 318 440 355 288 458 438 mis081_m1660 328 550 403 363 540 548 595 483 393 478 mis081_m1670 378 385 523 490 385 225 295 295 215 350 mis081_m1680 170 200 265 230 185 140 190 300 150 100 mis081_m1690 170 180 180 275 310 290 200 215 140 140 mis081_m1700 230 190 155 155 220 230 170 999 mis082_m1499 885 mis082_m1500 938 1010 855 790 990 735 720 925 950 923 mis082_m1510 1473 938 1640 1435 1160 1130 1535 948 838 1093 mis082_m1520 1520 1188 1260 1105 853 700 748 978 1070 1250 mis082_m1530 1105 1175 1255 1323 1105 773 603 893 878 1065 mis082_m1540 1593 1185 1285 835 833 788 930 1340 745 463 mis082_m1550 380 610 553 563 425 580 593 585 475 463 mis082_m1560 458 745 810 978 788 845 853 830 1330 970 mis082_m1570 840 1015 1608 1163 890 1110 705 663 633 450 mis082_m1580 545 433 528 655 593 690 620 488 238 255 mis082_m1590 288 330 380 278 225 258 115 175 140 45 mis082_m1600 95 95 140 135 120 185 155 170 155 195 mis082_m1610 265 240 175 305 310 275 340 280 335 350 mis082_m1620 260 320 250 215 260 230 205 275 130 255 mis082_m1630 170 185 185 145 305 365 245 340 999 mis083_m1510 2180 1665 2540 2170 2185 1775 2203 2190 2648 2528 mis083_m1520 2225 2188 2180 1468 1758 1860 2613 2143 1943 1883 mis083_m1530 1588 1573 1145 1193 1215 1055 910 1250 1410 1495 mis083_m1540 1395 1023 993 880 1068 1700 1648 1998 1970 1685 mis083_m1550 1323 1475 1508 1373 1128 1123 1133 1020 895 735 mis083_m1560 785 1110 983 855 815 1093 1083 1020 1285 1105 mis083_m1570 1083 1330 1560 1633 1285 1313 1078 813 875 865 mis083_m1580 733 728 878 1013 868 943 890 828 495 760 mis083_m1590 665 588 600 495 478 430 303 398 318 355 mis083_m1600 318 265 288 350 388 413 313 360 430 283 mis083_m1610 405 395 318 453 455 458 560 438 495 588 mis083_m1620 553 653 545 575 483 578 388 523 268 478 mis083_m1630 445 455 370 395 375 518 533 575 690 495 mis083_m1640 653 558 690 753 595 508 505 325 345 318 mis083_m1650 253 228 235 255 233 305 315 338 350 480 mis083_m1660 415 305 260 275 255 245 315 255 295 250 mis083_m1670 385 999 mis084_m1320 355 258 453 433 128 148 228 325 288 75 mis084_m1330 88 238 345 548 473 275 218 270 238 193 mis084_m1340 198 300 258 450 460 538 628 653 483 553 mis084_m1350 468 460 375 490 505 675 508 650 530 688 mis084_m1360 558 720 558 628 485 673 663 658 668 510 mis084_m1370 650 930 723 570 628 633 598 500 493 593 mis084_m1380 695 743 958 983 1075 1000 938 780 948 1068 mis084_m1390 960 853 900 980 1133 1145 1135 1120 1020 1028 mis084_m1400 1240 1388 1487 1375 1170 1432 1300 1425 1865 1637 mis084_m1410 1568 1915 2200 1845 1517 1762 1453 1412 1598 1300 mis084_m1420 1077 1573 1422 1497 1365 1313 1162 1200 1245 1305 mis084_m1430 1117 1153 1537 1967 1712 1507 1195 1367 1152 1122 mis084_m1440 1367 1412 1507 1602 1623 1723 1347 1345 1368 1247 mis084_m1450 1318 1152 1100 1102 855 893 835 1003 1152 948 mis084_m1460 990 1090 848 997 785 647 688 698 473 388 mis084_m1470 462 448 473 523 567 592 793 822 777 890 mis084_m1480 953 933 670 753 953 673 823 935 840 637 mis084_m1490 688 632 463 335 362 363 375 263 372 325 mis084_m1500 543 843 795 760 770 735 613 615 725 658 mis084_m1510 715 490 693 690 605 475 523 448 463 460 mis084_m1520 450 508 338 270 375 343 415 458 385 405 mis084_m1530 328 373 435 290 333 303 318 273 233 285 mis084_m1540 325 288 230 250 255 273 210 225 298 233 mis084_m1550 220 288 265 245 183 238 268 248 275 328 mis084_m1560 383 343 318 335 275 285 358 283 310 268 mis084_m1570 253 280 345 345 335 388 358 268 355 285 mis084_m1580 273 283 300 335 268 283 235 113 95 150 mis084_m1590 193 158 133 160 150 130 73 113 75 115 mis084_m1600 120 93 88 120 130 130 135 118 130 135 mis084_m1610 243 230 135 283 345 363 373 305 270 313 mis084_m1620 275 345 348 400 358 423 365 548 265 440 mis084_m1630 343 388 383 305 293 368 350 323 300 248 mis084_m1640 323 295 295 345 303 430 455 270 318 388 mis084_m1650 338 380 383 440 335 398 460 435 383 363 mis084_m1660 295 535 473 305 443 515 793 540 175 255 mis084_m1670 225 210 295 295 225 110 210 155 190 235 mis084_m1680 145 130 155 145 95 85 205 260 180 135 mis084_m1690 999 mis091_m1123 1855 1843 1759 1480 1650 1843 1158 mis091_m1130 1425 1251 1337 1617 1500 1597 1305 1602 1354 1858 mis091_m1140 1663 1355 1419 1330 1119 1195 1525 1227 1099 1764 mis091_m1150 1263 978 1000 1197 1096 1033 1395 1299 1108 1581 mis091_m1160 1646 1848 1577 1425 1573 1254 1317 1330 1295 1561 mis091_m1170 1936 1493 1274 1254 953 1442 2152 1569 1500 1554 mis091_m1180 1324 1321 1126 1236 1354 1206 1188 1200 1143 1113 mis091_m1190 932 766 885 983 1090 1082 998 783 813 699 mis091_m1200 793 1137 954 1490 1194 1564 1183 839 1159 880 mis091_m1210 844 878 969 936 881 903 927 714 684 1200 mis091_m1220 1077 830 918 1016 1056 1087 924 723 865 830 mis091_m1230 896 783 790 686 721 692 536 545 686 729 mis091_m1240 674 874 721 958 712 662 641 800 753 708 mis091_m1250 636 676 779 791 663 838 595 729 763 849 mis091_m1260 721 652 761 617 647 596 730 529 761 654 mis091_m1270 611 677 637 653 653 648 462 606 415 502 mis091_m1280 394 344 393 321 371 359 329 169 255 309 mis091_m1290 258 210 284 233 260 353 305 330 271 275 mis091_m1300 239 206 211 195 269 229 254 196 226 235 mis091_m1310 194 251 224 278 250 229 254 265 233 240 mis091_m1320 259 271 282 286 306 305 295 331 382 364 mis091_m1330 252 163 299 316 305 346 292 328 280 317 mis091_m1340 372 364 258 231 241 227 220 159 159 201 mis091_m1350 167 146 186 183 235 169 179 189 175 192 mis091_m1360 202 194 170 179 196 209 137 212 162 179 mis091_m1370 170 188 228 279 211 212 225 245 238 214 mis091_m1380 246 244 207 238 311 260 204 200 186 225 mis091_m1390 207 202 132 179 179 166 149 197 219 229 mis091_m1400 223 227 219 286 230 247 204 268 297 358 mis091_m1410 286 348 325 361 282 326 296 285 350 383 mis091_m1420 346 465 331 395 525 493 458 425 407 396 mis091_m1430 362 439 442 478 473 392 323 346 330 461 mis091_m1440 473 457 582 570 545 601 429 512 497 999 mis092_m1384 609 580 564 325 219 396 mis092_m1390 291 320 572 707 229 160 102 113 114 191 mis092_m1400 412 548 759 976 676 1009 1259 1493 1322 1246 mis092_m1410 1015 987 1443 1145 1064 1045 916 826 1186 1371 mis092_m1420 1221 1555 1139 923 1043 339 582 545 513 645 mis092_m1430 592 1011 974 1359 1082 827 1261 1175 1390 1281 mis092_m1440 1384 1543 1265 1205 1674 1647 1803 1492 1287 1399 mis092_m1450 1499 1725 1035 1189 503 863 1112 1105 1131 1103 mis092_m1460 1495 1796 915 1121 1233 1276 1505 1423 997 743 mis092_m1470 1025 1076 852 816 1226 1029 888 1012 1216 1302 mis092_m1480 1501 1934 1181 1087 1573 1157 1356 1479 1557 1354 mis092_m1490 1608 1654 1783 1663 1586 1672 1622 1234 1244 1394 mis092_m1500 1860 1881 1752 1631 1614 1763 1504 2128 2195 1752 mis092_m1510 1941 1447 2041 2120 1761 1506 1482 1281 1654 1718 mis092_m1520 1591 1681 1260 969 1273 1318 1379 1444 1263 1128 mis092_m1530 945 905 902 897 700 843 631 761 754 967 mis092_m1540 849 730 899 722 743 707 887 818 1074 737 mis092_m1550 715 886 1017 1116 949 931 786 720 755 758 mis092_m1560 1015 1653 1433 1018 849 1029 1068 940 951 1033 mis092_m1570 952 1105 1130 843 942 951 770 520 524 517 mis092_m1580 414 390 438 520 581 458 567 495 299 393 mis092_m1590 433 350 338 280 266 215 146 167 161 138 mis092_m1600 161 125 134 146 135 53 86 71 104 84 mis092_m1610 133 101 128 142 167 177 999 mis094_m1415 1978 1952 1446 2362 2120 mis094_m1420 2286 2542 1950 2351 2624 2173 2212 2129 2695 2742 mis094_m1430 2029 2369 2001 2632 2579 2739 2300 2126 1860 1549 mis094_m1440 1983 1844 1818 2185 2324 2029 1760 1905 1812 1800 mis094_m1450 1465 1684 1498 1767 1222 1344 1234 1253 1596 1437 mis094_m1460 1731 2587 1475 1600 1406 1187 1336 1331 1107 761 mis094_m1470 967 956 866 1190 1501 1519 1137 1170 1119 1427 mis094_m1480 1502 1804 1337 1552 1530 1294 1568 1875 2080 1568 mis094_m1490 1827 1556 1319 1222 1450 1362 1167 848 1393 1475 mis094_m1500 1417 1289 1291 1184 1198 791 912 1118 779 1009 mis094_m1510 1140 745 1308 1032 917 858 973 983 1138 1141 mis094_m1520 860 610 427 485 416 611 643 609 522 544 mis094_m1530 475 405 343 345 297 273 227 275 322 378 mis094_m1540 574 505 533 441 467 496 538 658 708 569 mis094_m1550 543 715 746 673 587 600 735 745 737 712 mis094_m1560 637 795 581 465 457 468 434 399 521 536 mis094_m1570 550 577 682 619 535 611 489 369 387 249 mis094_m1580 292 241 226 317 291 332 285 232 142 163 mis094_m1590 250 191 189 131 155 160 80 123 93 108 mis094_m1600 82 93 113 114 103 77 86 61 79 81 mis094_m1610 76 86 91 91 125 107 76 140 144 180 mis094_m1620 153 156 213 316 340 364 230 337 394 488 mis094_m1630 354 294 109 999 mis095_m1495 921 1200 1042 1560 1301 mis095_m1500 1574 1455 1688 1191 1645 1848 1872 2110 1933 1914 mis095_m1510 1869 1484 1589 1588 1567 1202 1652 1249 1435 1410 mis095_m1520 1543 1375 1242 1030 1373 1306 1333 1158 919 966 mis095_m1530 851 821 841 824 698 555 558 785 815 947 mis095_m1540 1322 1047 1193 1054 1195 974 1067 1196 957 926 mis095_m1550 988 1206 1189 1118 1037 1052 1298 1198 1170 1235 mis095_m1560 1170 1859 1893 1465 1487 1617 1318 1352 1537 1423 mis095_m1570 1486 1403 1615 1433 1321 1267 1071 979 1001 863 mis095_m1580 882 855 850 1061 934 1160 1302 1054 604 1022 mis095_m1590 696 479 583 609 576 502 353 326 293 266 mis095_m1600 333 283 356 438 449 450 450 456 510 411 mis095_m1610 524 653 558 680 647 696 778 675 696 780 mis095_m1620 781 977 797 766 763 986 812 1109 637 1034 mis095_m1630 604 621 661 705 826 1069 1230 1025 1053 705 mis095_m1640 997 872 905 923 952 893 870 661 855 898 mis095_m1650 694 527 547 609 523 598 622 572 512 549 mis095_m1660 520 701 635 585 762 778 847 817 726 802 mis095_m1670 558 581 653 685 510 343 528 412 376 350 mis095_m1680 321 361 365 446 457 451 583 605 560 538 mis095_m1690 727 796 660 606 620 583 558 476 421 274 mis095_m1700 304 269 277 266 320 274 350 409 378 510 mis095_m1710 633 576 659 580 569 569 494 322 324 272 mis095_m1720 335 269 464 412 489 492 489 418 462 448 mis095_m1730 471 443 405 441 464 544 601 553 540 692 mis095_m1740 682 581 818 504 524 504 545 441 527 534 mis095_m1750 455 465 485 566 571 590 570 575 438 574 mis095_m1760 539 486 447 614 675 511 529 569 469 516 mis095_m1770 398 459 416 400 435 503 482 449 647 413 mis095_m1780 553 650 611 636 824 507 572 762 674 562 mis095_m1790 524 544 408 447 462 381 567 486 463 397 mis095_m1800 405 444 465 419 399 358 415 328 321 235 mis095_m1810 307 349 278 124 206 133 180 160 78 104 mis095_m1820 115 120 126 156 144 152 164 208 192 230 mis095_m1830 233 270 253 250 254 236 200 220 203 187 mis095_m1840 254 286 334 334 325 291 313 266 269 220 mis095_m1850 238 201 218 313 274 410 327 394 366 387 mis095_m1860 359 318 502 435 469 484 405 345 441 473 mis095_m1870 522 552 548 512 539 652 535 517 464 587 mis095_m1880 578 490 416 485 370 534 381 611 999 mis106_m1548 533 551 mis106_m1550 527 606 586 600 571 552 726 716 723 727 mis106_m1560 774 1039 974 855 720 749 808 741 872 881 mis106_m1570 871 823 864 987 1003 982 842 657 666 524 mis106_m1580 506 531 581 549 529 546 588 557 337 463 mis106_m1590 561 420 436 434 422 387 292 267 184 147 mis106_m1600 179 128 173 171 180 169 150 163 166 179 mis106_m1610 199 184 133 251 221 232 250 207 202 243 mis106_m1620 237 296 237 250 196 258 168 207 129 175 mis106_m1630 103 161 113 143 172 267 207 194 203 115 mis106_m1640 211 226 240 298 262 279 232 192 224 260 mis106_m1650 217 252 224 198 192 243 171 203 185 195 mis106_m1660 141 286 201 172 264 247 284 280 215 234 mis106_m1670 162 189 225 224 177 106 251 145 192 199 mis106_m1680 153 149 187 204 157 119 135 149 120 89 mis106_m1690 145 130 170 215 274 239 231 175 152 103 mis106_m1700 115 124 92 94 106 109 118 164 112 191 mis106_m1710 219 161 157 163 154 169 138 43 86 74 mis106_m1720 75 76 118 67 123 90 98 151 137 119 mis106_m1730 82 90 140 247 138 133 144 136 117 130 mis106_m1740 110 105 151 124 124 114 118 115 244 200 mis106_m1750 126 107 92 116 99 139 87 97 105 105 mis106_m1760 108 75 78 84 83 80 97 70 20 117 mis106_m1770 100 88 64 74 69 106 83 71 88 75 mis106_m1780 157 87 80 80 115 55 116 120 103 89 mis106_m1790 132 96 100 61 95 109 107 94 108 98 mis106_m1800 89 99 106 89 101 88 103 83 73 55 mis106_m1810 45 52 67 62 999 mis107_m1553 618 578 532 679 644 962 845 mis107_m1560 871 1140 1049 620 735 869 1086 894 902 916 mis107_m1570 845 776 694 670 697 678 654 835 661 440 mis107_m1580 409 502 709 924 639 995 950 631 645 755 mis107_m1590 638 526 642 617 525 512 459 444 651 521 mis107_m1600 499 450 451 582 626 587 579 601 719 752 mis107_m1610 706 738 797 783 736 579 622 805 865 1019 mis107_m1620 946 886 871 746 799 846 688 912 663 760 mis107_m1630 621 633 637 726 734 732 755 905 938 666 mis107_m1640 1029 874 785 815 767 739 749 593 603 644 mis107_m1650 624 649 572 589 649 726 872 743 574 618 mis107_m1660 577 602 527 546 656 664 660 563 431 393 mis107_m1670 367 454 521 516 435 237 330 301 327 405 mis107_m1680 382 389 534 435 317 327 356 398 371 376 mis107_m1690 409 498 538 613 660 448 498 545 489 268 mis107_m1700 316 260 308 318 280 289 315 308 346 352 mis107_m1710 438 433 367 343 342 405 315 139 142 154 mis107_m1720 232 172 214 182 214 251 291 269 296 319 mis107_m1730 330 305 274 321 334 390 509 547 591 635 mis107_m1740 484 415 494 274 307 329 351 331 410 381 mis107_m1750 310 366 197 202 239 304 236 219 194 198 mis107_m1760 242 244 182 234 253 169 213 242 242 227 mis107_m1770 246 169 168 236 195 277 224 170 303 351 mis107_m1780 374 318 297 255 348 237 253 279 367 330 mis107_m1790 299 342 312 260 333 273 347 354 368 286 mis107_m1800 261 308 384 277 323 283 237 348 207 123 mis107_m1810 103 106 88 99 999 mis108_m 645 464 325 348 382 337 mis108_m 650 453 526 598 390 371 437 410 574 544 623 mis108_m 660 496 516 422 498 493 656 729 579 649 674 mis108_m 670 596 685 738 719 761 882 767 987 854 877 mis108_m 680 957 723 750 754 769 981 536 663 709 569 mis108_m 690 358 624 548 369 338 468 535 620 702 564 mis108_m 700 597 790 532 636 506 554 559 398 497 421 mis108_m 710 540 578 560 452 327 425 353 544 440 425 mis108_m 720 489 487 352 411 520 512 467 475 526 481 mis108_m 730 415 631 530 501 579 598 515 643 655 657 mis108_m 740 675 693 683 596 471 539 582 589 440 550 mis108_m 750 626 534 518 724 563 656 552 406 559 562 mis108_m 760 475 443 532 566 520 539 581 535 689 720 mis108_m 770 673 648 690 594 685 615 438 554 539 557 mis108_m 780 486 548 566 574 441 378 397 527 423 471 mis108_m 790 484 517 425 500 449 480 423 422 330 384 mis108_m 800 351 388 452 298 349 292 308 267 310 326 mis108_m 810 350 317 418 381 370 385 398 487 465 431 mis108_m 820 451 339 303 357 349 322 287 234 379 296 mis108_m 830 316 310 268 263 184 111 150 118 105 143 mis108_m 840 149 129 157 120 178 147 177 207 245 200 mis108_m 850 225 208 263 263 261 252 213 231 209 225 mis108_m 860 231 280 245 191 281 206 261 269 329 298 mis108_m 870 285 292 266 263 279 292 279 253 241 271 mis108_m 880 275 267 241 267 191 275 283 242 300 413 mis108_m 890 309 402 332 295 347 356 214 427 319 268 mis108_m 900 304 292 303 304 412 273 240 203 187 195 mis108_m 910 162 194 211 255 238 192 262 196 197 241 mis108_m 920 222 233 250 162 144 154 122 161 128 151 mis108_m 930 141 157 263 162 218 171 241 299 210 158 mis108_m 940 153 304 212 211 138 212 172 248 250 224 mis108_m 950 164 177 212 163 175 191 244 211 235 236 mis108_m 960 277 201 142 170 223 214 175 146 122 204 mis108_m 970 207 186 208 166 174 156 152 178 147 152 mis108_m 980 147 199 187 192 199 203 275 221 235 215 mis108_m 990 222 204 201 284 194 155 232 183 198 296 mis108_m1000 197 152 185 192 127 202 170 108 215 171 mis108_m1010 235 205 208 170 161 243 195 166 197 179 mis108_m1020 159 130 217 147 164 206 193 202 226 153 mis108_m1030 226 212 234 249 251 244 231 337 310 302 mis108_m1040 213 191 287 234 333 348 324 325 325 418 mis108_m1050 427 382 343 314 296 243 342 329 340 340 mis108_m1060 370 390 400 341 415 405 338 352 333 262 mis108_m1070 268 271 232 262 282 218 184 214 232 214 mis108_m1080 266 234 221 224 254 280 226 254 270 276 mis108_m1090 201 185 999 mis109_m1429 418 mis109_m1430 455 494 437 712 766 843 793 459 690 885 mis109_m1440 1074 559 512 677 606 495 438 432 513 450 mis109_m1450 446 474 425 336 317 225 311 300 403 232 mis109_m1460 202 165 141 91 83 153 152 184 180 181 mis109_m1470 168 159 196 166 245 252 280 256 242 333 mis109_m1480 369 297 289 379 451 354 382 373 401 381 mis109_m1490 374 380 363 359 309 368 406 304 431 543 mis109_m1500 741 800 763 637 597 509 542 523 426 511 mis109_m1510 594 430 690 670 661 583 535 530 598 509 mis109_m1520 473 486 444 398 458 423 519 431 349 532 mis109_m1530 415 363 390 400 346 393 307 347 303 343 mis109_m1540 393 357 372 301 321 382 394 354 412 369 mis109_m1550 395 500 472 394 394 452 461 497 470 566 mis109_m1560 569 534 516 405 403 501 541 647 637 649 mis109_m1570 630 541 543 532 438 428 452 442 417 350 mis109_m1580 281 276 343 432 412 417 466 386 310 369 mis109_m1590 356 323 299 311 338 299 268 245 412 471 mis109_m1600 437 350 308 388 311 270 213 217 258 253 mis109_m1610 354 385 360 392 403 434 539 482 440 488 mis109_m1620 482 524 452 429 492 529 431 550 359 429 mis109_m1630 415 457 461 411 395 414 390 373 403 291 mis109_m1640 542 509 483 409 342 398 392 290 252 327 mis109_m1650 282 260 220 248 202 258 233 219 190 180 mis109_m1660 178 214 146 159 174 148 180 167 143 138 mis109_m1670 140 203 151 188 173 111 156 138 142 177 mis109_m1680 154 148 179 159 184 181 207 254 197 184 mis109_m1690 156 152 160 206 175 143 128 137 123 116 mis109_m1700 109 129 112 127 150 136 144 163 149 138 mis109_m1710 156 148 108 114 104 109 92 60 57 61 mis109_m1720 126 108 112 104 154 171 156 163 155 190 mis109_m1730 205 149 158 183 199 138 151 163 173 213 mis109_m1740 162 175 180 135 105 143 163 201 307 279 mis109_m1750 229 236 219 178 194 216 192 165 171 129 mis109_m1760 126 147 149 163 170 151 141 154 135 148 mis109_m1770 154 118 104 124 163 211 187 151 220 258 mis109_m1780 290 299 240 201 249 184 156 178 199 176 mis109_m1790 152 165 155 144 172 177 229 189 291 231 mis109_m1800 265 320 266 192 165 178 204 282 255 277 mis109_m1810 228 999 mis110km1435 926 997 1222 1055 1110 mis110km1440 1104 1171 1252 1164 1057 1007 834 732 923 841 mis110km1450 972 938 526 486 475 385 379 274 279 162 mis110km1460 197 167 141 186 196 197 170 168 162 134 mis110km1470 192 170 131 158 172 180 216 179 256 279 mis110km1480 334 389 240 317 310 307 422 586 637 674 mis110km1490 693 647 684 537 484 441 437 285 425 508 mis110km1500 635 708 627 540 667 655 625 453 546 624 mis110km1510 719 492 708 663 500 458 451 387 511 455 mis110km1520 445 586 540 488 578 616 774 769 582 814 mis110km1530 533 615 587 646 552 596 432 447 361 431 mis110km1540 400 373 355 290 356 305 432 417 459 457 mis110km1550 323 320 354 288 283 311 359 347 354 522 mis110km1560 686 623 691 558 465 556 607 685 637 509 mis110km1570 434 371 343 424 358 334 242 189 163 119 mis110km1580 140 156 219 250 245 249 274 206 150 166 mis110km1590 175 185 144 138 174 164 141 116 132 135 mis110km1600 151 135 130 196 230 205 155 150 148 142 mis110km1610 155 130 130 261 285 357 398 358 302 343 mis110km1620 316 269 238 249 196 202 143 176 81 98 mis110km1630 76 135 113 133 185 228 212 266 312 169 mis110km1640 260 233 221 216 166 192 120 92 115 100 mis110km1650 87 88 88 116 82 116 130 114 91 95 mis110km1660 88 172 84 85 120 162 116 151 122 89 mis110km1670 103 141 143 150 128 86 77 88 86 120 mis110km1680 99 167 221 152 125 114 160 217 148 131 mis110km1690 108 97 96 118 134 94 140 122 85 66 mis110km1700 61 67 85 115 121 138 150 119 133 113 mis110km1710 119 77 65 75 91 83 999 mis111_m 987 786 725 1172 mis111_m 990 728 485 783 813 670 810 1006 1040 1114 1065 mis111_m1000 1232 1107 1015 1239 976 1302 1139 948 1116 1268 mis111_m1010 443 642 573 653 440 411 393 514 477 453 mis111_m1020 370 455 693 672 560 616 636 568 661 520 mis111_m1030 679 873 676 696 823 778 635 755 831 691 mis111_m1040 721 724 956 971 917 776 946 911 781 832 mis111_m1050 1000 739 934 652 620 687 678 749 807 886 mis111_m1060 806 718 619 662 725 852 805 732 739 834 mis111_m1070 827 793 653 756 744 694 618 700 719 616 mis111_m1080 662 726 525 642 675 593 573 669 550 777 mis111_m1090 722 735 688 723 486 547 551 625 712 829 mis111_m1100 577 542 514 433 404 499 594 496 502 543 mis111_m1110 531 598 491 544 509 503 529 459 435 406 mis111_m1120 491 412 438 452 514 436 418 435 466 316 mis111_m1130 415 350 340 385 393 394 317 360 291 345 mis111_m1140 327 364 315 363 301 374 415 267 344 416 mis111_m1150 382 303 281 440 561 424 458 494 391 461 mis111_m1160 553 556 551 510 540 483 438 500 484 515 mis111_m1170 559 466 417 433 358 426 483 539 449 437 mis111_m1180 426 482 484 440 483 470 539 389 415 420 mis111_m1190 352 271 405 361 466 494 354 348 387 396 mis111_m1200 472 464 409 501 415 392 403 378 380 372 mis111_m1210 463 374 436 408 436 418 422 380 371 360 mis111_m1220 349 350 355 319 310 341 315 264 280 286 mis111_m1230 294 256 275 300 287 285 236 240 295 301 mis111_m1240 317 359 274 324 308 322 340 343 321 321 mis111_m1250 311 308 313 275 267 297 273 334 312 359 mis111_m1260 360 325 351 315 272 323 326 270 297 291 mis111_m1270 277 282 290 335 354 320 225 239 218 337 mis111_m1280 305 239 256 213 226 263 235 173 242 277 mis111_m1290 247 200 247 235 252 256 238 268 243 243 mis111_m1300 249 271 214 216 220 264 244 204 218 203 mis111_m1310 190 250 251 223 206 184 200 251 273 246 mis111_m1320 248 248 243 251 219 220 210 225 291 217 mis111_m1330 197 184 297 241 256 233 222 243 190 214 mis111_m1340 209 195 159 214 187 198 167 158 164 169 mis111_m1350 183 122 180 160 192 135 145 163 182 207 mis111_m1360 172 199 170 150 154 174 153 183 169 150 mis111_m1370 154 145 147 193 179 181 172 131 127 177 mis111_m1380 177 158 165 132 205 188 176 190 160 192 mis111_m1390 192 187 97 162 179 176 150 203 179 207 mis111_m1400 264 282 161 182 135 199 126 133 154 181 mis111_m1410 121 185 134 146 120 113 127 141 194 204 mis111_m1420 181 180 115 154 189 157 145 139 142 119 mis111_m1430 116 150 109 121 115 121 121 119 84 119 mis111_m1440 121 109 138 126 159 110 100 144 162 105 mis111_m1450 109 127 107 112 122 114 105 118 118 137 mis111_m1460 129 126 105 99 133 88 86 67 67 47 mis111_m1470 85 71 85 90 107 91 95 119 116 105 mis111_m1480 93 101 95 77 94 77 75 93 94 90 mis111_m1490 74 82 89 64 107 999 mis112_m1407 274 179 158 mis112_m1410 157 157 161 178 160 143 163 142 107 136 mis112_m1420 139 150 141 164 134 66 56 75 98 82 mis112_m1430 83 91 91 109 111 87 71 52 74 79 mis112_m1440 94 85 46 70 76 127 106 118 184 188 mis112_m1450 142 145 182 194 104 75 51 142 233 153 mis112_m1460 273 315 225 227 172 230 203 247 366 221 mis112_m1470 430 371 416 307 354 330 319 272 237 279 mis112_m1480 317 341 313 464 379 289 364 412 419 464 mis112_m1490 474 390 446 333 271 234 292 166 338 189 mis112_m1500 275 256 399 381 472 362 382 340 302 384 mis112_m1510 259 182 294 94 224 289 486 401 513 508 mis112_m1520 494 491 289 209 279 237 250 264 158 261 mis112_m1530 246 278 283 295 277 179 163 207 169 192 mis112_m1540 240 171 143 157 197 237 173 181 228 235 mis112_m1550 232 188 209 198 163 213 187 172 172 189 mis112_m1560 205 302 304 232 320 218 146 137 172 167 mis112_m1570 223 168 234 273 257 365 320 205 226 178 mis112_m1580 235 307 313 445 405 418 407 326 245 384 mis112_m1590 395 261 290 243 252 284 294 330 330 264 mis112_m1600 245 169 277 295 294 313 337 316 415 320 mis112_m1610 373 518 653 577 472 458 457 364 302 341 mis112_m1620 312 303 302 275 268 314 231 349 113 221 mis112_m1630 240 316 281 453 415 511 533 447 431 262 mis112_m1640 298 280 227 306 440 470 465 232 295 322 mis112_m1650 326 256 261 329 246 327 413 538 406 373 mis112_m1660 330 641 542 374 494 605 940 599 329 359 mis112_m1670 271 239 286 332 247 240 403 294 346 365 mis112_m1680 249 348 262 365 288 197 199 265 228 173 mis112_m1690 238 221 148 216 190 149 195 223 209 188 mis112_m1700 155 223 339 426 370 219 232 286 184 266 mis112_m1710 249 286 374 300 364 468 468 405 425 376 mis112_m1720 427 360 442 334 379 398 730 701 522 475 mis112_m1730 486 475 424 567 497 538 633 853 743 898 mis112_m1740 897 591 751 434 363 267 335 277 261 280 mis112_m1750 248 216 259 229 290 337 204 166 118 180 mis112_m1760 175 194 106 253 310 210 200 249 176 191 mis112_m1770 139 131 142 192 206 287 240 170 291 134 mis112_m1780 245 239 210 195 291 169 199 336 338 288 mis112_m1790 272 249 198 148 182 155 173 79 205 109 mis112_m1800 70 78 95 69 57 78 92 91 62 38 mis112_m1810 42 74 93 50 41 45 31 35 117 90 mis112_m1820 55 96 89 63 69 70 91 73 117 167 mis112_m1830 182 150 112 104 149 122 134 147 89 99 mis112_m1840 90 108 102 113 151 113 99 106 118 155 mis112_m1850 106 95 123 167 159 193 184 200 150 234 mis112_m1860 214 220 199 262 319 275 282 257 268 243 mis112_m1870 299 329 280 273 267 291 282 286 271 238 mis112_m1880 170 228 256 161 257 392 423 600 571 560 mis112_m1890 351 174 171 241 287 234 211 149 99 135 mis112_m1900 999 mis114_m 894 465 520 500 690 775 460 mis114_m 900 530 415 685 650 670 890 410 430 160 160 mis114_m 910 175 200 325 225 745 625 539 528 408 661 mis114_m 920 591 614 595 523 423 536 614 549 578 761 mis114_m 930 439 486 686 710 728 606 616 406 458 441 mis114_m 940 441 468 358 414 313 400 448 518 429 474 mis114_m 950 466 396 318 276 381 301 543 268 500 484 mis114_m 960 528 406 440 426 546 478 261 324 260 273 mis114_m 970 285 238 260 290 188 166 145 218 163 213 mis114_m 980 121 175 138 263 249 166 233 164 206 90 mis114_m 990 145 131 85 156 121 86 160 131 201 169 mis114_m1000 125 135 98 91 83 83 94 73 198 123 mis114_m1010 100 126 98 116 73 178 131 106 165 84 mis114_m1020 156 65 153 136 88 123 165 76 93 109 mis114_m1030 205 291 240 118 198 166 161 135 238 166 mis114_m1040 133 180 106 126 234 214 233 223 176 228 mis114_m1050 193 296 278 229 221 231 253 245 155 143 mis114_m1060 300 205 198 156 153 130 121 218 161 116 mis114_m1070 130 94 123 78 105 98 43 78 104 98 mis114_m1080 78 105 139 120 156 143 185 158 121 114 mis114_m1090 144 178 173 178 131 198 163 158 240 233 mis114_m1100 196 154 200 244 228 183 280 346 453 408 mis114_m1110 393 383 476 306 375 388 321 319 448 398 mis114_m1120 458 300 318 371 378 524 496 349 323 274 mis114_m1130 113 206 223 303 298 330 218 206 146 104 mis114_m1140 184 66 81 60 63 46 71 41 63 68 mis114_m1150 91 95 83 141 108 76 56 98 106 117 mis114_m1160 159 140 249 198 160 132 121 189 128 155 mis114_m1170 182 165 231 172 158 252 144 187 176 164 mis114_m1180 195 225 217 125 177 171 213 213 168 188 mis114_m1190 163 82 146 130 140 212 151 146 162 141 mis114_m1200 119 205 186 237 178 291 294 236 136 172 mis114_m1210 238 150 200 172 144 158 186 155 144 101 mis114_m1220 199 163 139 130 133 170 186 74 134 189 mis114_m1230 166 139 125 105 133 79 101 131 126 183 mis114_m1240 118 211 124 165 183 173 130 180 173 148 mis114_m1250 143 149 166 113 181 203 143 246 213 214 mis114_m1260 228 193 238 214 213 206 256 153 239 231 mis114_m1270 249 251 211 289 256 221 186 195 196 253 mis114_m1280 225 256 180 188 225 165 164 188 188 223 mis114_m1290 201 151 148 201 274 313 260 370 265 415 mis114_m1300 358 393 403 371 321 325 338 331 330 310 mis114_m1310 229 300 303 376 336 308 370 331 488 406 mis114_m1320 449 426 548 451 524 479 463 428 423 436 mis114_m1330 329 306 459 490 431 446 339 383 291 391 mis114_m1340 388 316 234 281 268 279 295 250 301 328 mis114_m1350 296 315 409 328 491 336 356 433 454 411 mis114_m1360 415 395 579 556 444 545 383 490 480 481 mis114_m1370 458 476 596 481 491 295 323 253 246 376 mis114_m1380 361 406 288 336 346 373 358 343 314 438 mis114_m1390 358 398 261 378 333 326 304 319 363 344 mis114_m1400 451 390 398 406 381 363 273 295 313 401 mis114_m1410 326 340 318 418 258 406 253 318 416 395 mis114_m1420 349 453 348 393 431 523 333 378 358 393 mis114_m1430 314 334 341 469 490 365 331 290 239 344 mis114_m1440 345 376 465 388 426 326 300 253 261 269 mis114_m1450 269 356 158 205 188 160 172 150 127 267 mis114_m1460 190 232 182 237 167 187 175 145 112 140 mis114_m1470 190 215 215 240 305 240 265 300 415 325 mis114_m1480 390 460 315 215 185 200 185 999 mis115_m1248 363 298 mis115_m1250 393 294 277 366 315 394 395 555 478 429 mis115_m1260 507 414 450 432 403 310 382 361 279 348 mis115_m1270 316 340 323 347 450 385 388 376 293 344 mis115_m1280 600 512 432 452 368 691 593 382 383 408 mis115_m1290 374 414 365 376 356 628 625 629 524 401 mis115_m1300 419 409 410 465 388 482 528 524 615 597 mis115_m1310 454 628 627 807 820 835 669 899 879 920 mis115_m1320 875 912 878 908 888 755 779 707 1040 929 mis115_m1330 723 446 751 837 738 763 546 497 535 520 mis115_m1340 589 501 402 402 384 392 366 316 335 321 mis115_m1350 357 322 368 295 296 286 249 245 403 366 mis115_m1360 286 314 258 274 239 234 199 203 209 227 mis115_m1370 207 264 267 296 228 188 207 132 177 205 mis115_m1380 218 217 205 205 225 174 210 194 225 179 mis115_m1390 196 188 181 257 202 156 133 199 195 216 mis115_m1400 183 217 247 300 184 207 183 228 209 260 mis115_m1410 278 350 361 375 304 264 259 275 315 291 mis115_m1420 245 288 285 322 456 319 313 279 339 357 mis115_m1430 266 303 285 401 355 356 354 324 287 340 mis115_m1440 351 359 331 276 339 347 268 327 304 334 mis115_m1450 391 291 321 346 253 243 230 235 204 198 mis115_m1460 241 323 258 247 191 161 177 159 174 148 mis115_m1470 209 264 211 191 306 330 345 340 383 284 mis115_m1480 347 400 208 268 286 218 329 366 339 302 mis115_m1490 353 387 419 233 254 178 204 156 283 580 mis115_m1500 546 589 606 458 400 443 411 669 747 842 mis115_m1510 732 575 749 799 892 750 921 638 947 914 mis115_m1520 859 980 720 567 522 511 651 665 627 707 mis115_m1530 646 759 696 724 595 619 713 643 633 648 mis115_m1540 632 431 499 480 522 479 569 698 783 831 mis115_m1550 614 688 700 727 702 671 875 713 773 820 mis115_m1560 752 1056 1085 807 750 627 721 672 839 821 mis115_m1570 918 895 890 1000 996 1030 977 856 914 745 mis115_m1580 831 847 847 956 814 966 1009 1059 828 1063 mis115_m1590 1161 767 915 803 737 691 704 612 610 653 mis115_m1600 603 628 632 573 632 484 465 451 490 448 mis115_m1610 610 744 743 805 733 911 836 802 857 855 mis115_m1620 788 742 972 945 983 651 495 708 811 628 mis115_m1630 808 701 717 654 724 686 803 700 785 499 mis115_m1640 638 647 621 999 mis116_m1333 329 276 375 277 245 362 375 mis116_m1340 262 234 247 279 254 261 328 214 133 131 mis116_m1350 160 169 196 188 216 222 213 446 496 435 mis116_m1360 293 287 249 367 383 398 327 290 316 361 mis116_m1370 327 292 245 251 786 719 616 413 364 338 mis116_m1380 406 352 263 327 395 315 330 314 259 315 mis116_m1390 303 390 318 366 375 294 319 386 332 353 mis116_m1400 327 398 357 499 475 395 273 307 413 415 mis116_m1410 502 516 536 537 504 528 403 389 551 539 mis116_m1420 428 617 522 667 748 458 481 522 512 530 mis116_m1430 449 459 439 543 602 534 406 421 297 351 mis116_m1440 414 408 403 388 505 498 375 374 342 307 mis116_m1450 318 292 293 290 268 232 208 201 230 244 mis116_m1460 281 339 268 287 280 202 155 214 275 241 mis116_m1470 267 316 288 276 305 334 445 323 346 417 mis116_m1480 451 466 311 373 370 265 297 362 344 320 mis116_m1490 350 289 242 211 208 169 189 148 233 230 mis116_m1500 249 254 320 232 214 198 215 280 231 201 mis116_m1510 194 108 178 176 201 170 191 164 148 223 mis116_m1520 220 228 179 207 179 171 137 197 173 165 mis116_m1530 108 138 164 102 144 116 111 106 107 147 mis116_m1540 185 103 63 78 124 108 104 127 175 119 mis116_m1550 140 153 199 143 106 164 169 133 147 193 mis116_m1560 232 306 257 220 214 181 172 185 215 180 mis116_m1570 167 197 210 215 246 291 209 184 197 170 mis116_m1580 214 285 317 290 263 383 342 279 160 225 mis116_m1590 270 198 187 170 175 202 159 132 120 91 mis116_m1600 106 136 125 147 176 211 128 162 183 163 mis116_m1610 180 227 170 312 284 265 308 219 208 235 mis116_m1620 229 238 174 183 174 181 156 276 141 173 mis116_m1630 172 215 148 211 256 317 264 220 259 109 mis116_m1640 196 231 220 288 266 298 271 206 189 221 mis116_m1650 154 197 174 265 163 217 158 105 101 121 mis116_m1660 94 159 103 98 201 220 200 142 108 103 mis116_m1670 52 81 148 148 100 68 89 77 91 155 mis116_m1680 99 109 120 103 69 94 134 139 121 78 mis116_m1690 92 105 99 105 133 92 131 104 71 68 mis116_m1700 100 82 108 130 114 83 67 98 71 80 mis116_m1710 103 64 78 69 57 88 85 55 50 43 mis116_m1720 53 37 60 49 62 67 62 88 70 77 mis116_m1730 73 115 99 131 109 92 161 98 119 162 mis116_m1740 118 135 190 81 107 123 141 134 306 191 mis116_m1750 143 196 219 234 263 350 268 346 243 379 mis116_m1760 458 339 287 506 469 291 308 349 279 282 mis116_m1770 175 167 145 170 216 261 198 167 386 344 mis116_m1780 335 297 269 262 396 277 308 321 451 380 mis116_m1790 381 421 383 283 381 292 389 279 375 269 mis116_m1800 273 298 360 221 254 214 245 322 295 281 mis116_m1810 272 361 379 220 183 173 144 129 189 228 mis116_m1820 167 234 365 385 513 563 503 413 326 344 mis116_m1830 370 280 329 395 487 539 220 319 336 370 mis116_m1840 371 300 412 196 332 309 423 418 371 405 mis116_m1850 376 242 319 317 224 163 282 362 273 267 mis116_m1860 286 277 314 367 267 289 247 268 340 420 mis116_m1870 412 258 312 309 363 362 285 337 387 394 mis116_m1880 500 465 536 484 446 284 276 242 239 205 mis116_m1890 999 mis199_m1253 1678 1503 2063 2067 2261 1940 2045 mis199_m1260 2165 1517 1600 1629 1574 1186 1565 1406 1284 1672 mis199_m1270 1407 1603 1547 1650 1850 1802 1417 1739 1355 1611 mis199_m1280 1630 1153 1137 1438 1253 1236 1098 804 976 1019 mis199_m1290 739 707 824 737 785 873 684 842 677 699 mis199_m1300 767 845 797 729 817 781 641 474 614 638 mis199_m1310 515 577 544 613 563 530 534 582 563 547 mis199_m1320 599 622 514 608 600 497 514 509 728 659 mis199_m1330 505 462 690 605 551 529 399 404 443 384 mis199_m1340 461 387 295 339 335 291 237 248 222 223 mis199_m1350 247 194 282 226 288 256 224 266 357 341 mis199_m1360 328 344 381 355 302 355 293 387 309 291 mis199_m1370 356 311 351 405 374 326 320 257 260 306 mis199_m1380 370 365 336 393 522 524 458 470 507 575 mis199_m1390 569 569 511 602 559 461 494 611 604 610 mis199_m1400 618 603 498 521 458 563 452 446 496 541 mis199_m1410 545 572 572 655 522 633 484 532 634 557 mis199_m1420 539 597 469 549 757 687 486 536 556 497 mis199_m1430 486 527 522 707 829 702 624 489 449 596 mis199_m1440 592 565 847 781 868 866 631 792 671 583 mis199_m1450 574 576 464 460 430 372 419 357 443 420 mis199_m1460 547 592 567 527 489 497 528 463 429 389 mis199_m1470 514 449 429 449 585 487 524 547 574 578 mis199_m1480 686 840 460 478 483 366 577 710 566 619 mis199_m1490 615 502 483 472 507 392 450 348 440 406 mis199_m1500 417 433 406 357 360 421 432 424 352 342 mis199_m1510 276 191 176 999 rsa02_m 1132 500 565 687 568 522 447 450 705 rsa02_m 1140 381 362 334 494 443 522 610 301 508 620 rsa02_m 1150 537 310 331 316 344 335 492 349 352 385 rsa02_m 1160 522 715 604 490 482 486 354 345 392 527 rsa02_m 1170 588 408 464 531 456 581 660 567 445 317 rsa02_m 1180 395 412 477 423 377 422 395 406 303 321 rsa02_m 1190 300 207 282 252 369 483 383 231 316 254 rsa02_m 1200 277 292 283 374 281 460 597 422 368 340 rsa02_m 1210 471 384 423 419 480 357 466 379 406 470 rsa02_m 1220 540 554 571 680 629 874 916 859 838 731 rsa02_m 1230 1019 731 668 477 363 369 413 553 641 799 rsa02_m 1240 812 942 847 976 707 999 rsa03_m 225 2366 2578 2456 2588 1933 rsa03_m 230 1968 2116 1901 2224 1650 2506 1834 1119 2105 2044 rsa03_m 240 2087 2025 1822 1681 1238 1457 1454 1401 1092 1378 rsa03_m 250 1134 1039 1187 1152 1086 1408 1228 1422 1434 1282 rsa03_m 260 1161 1192 1210 1153 1230 1290 1173 926 995 960 rsa03_m 270 1085 1096 944 937 895 1183 1228 1055 914 712 rsa03_m 280 904 1011 973 1068 1002 1034 914 817 751 938 rsa03_m 290 893 809 1037 761 793 965 875 938 1027 815 rsa03_m 300 804 912 768 815 972 830 740 678 481 588 rsa03_m 310 691 612 601 586 679 586 505 444 422 518 rsa03_m 320 443 439 497 452 456 367 336 341 406 370 rsa03_m 330 401 552 448 427 577 502 570 561 504 538 rsa03_m 340 581 546 497 391 349 444 426 573 582 415 rsa03_m 350 515 464 528 535 504 514 447 428 450 403 rsa03_m 360 400 386 414 456 448 365 462 437 427 456 rsa03_m 370 524 582 467 494 452 479 359 406 535 565 rsa03_m 380 529 379 401 389 337 346 373 416 344 357 rsa03_m 390 302 305 328 307 369 361 343 332 320 363 rsa03_m 400 367 331 370 424 368 322 337 382 432 389 rsa03_m 410 407 401 365 407 315 297 393 364 457 385 rsa03_m 420 458 352 280 334 329 301 301 358 382 399 rsa03_m 430 514 385 368 397 432 410 397 433 296 325 rsa03_m 440 383 338 335 349 360 356 375 417 428 403 rsa03_m 450 475 323 337 368 395 333 303 348 332 342 rsa03_m 460 333 306 325 321 283 322 340 165 242 290 rsa03_m 470 312 284 260 270 248 283 228 218 999 rsa04_m 897 300 428 327 rsa04_m 900 633 467 433 507 400 215 206 112 185 241 rsa04_m 910 280 470 589 568 659 540 402 470 516 487 rsa04_m 920 501 513 525 551 570 507 639 881 910 828 rsa04_m 930 878 856 1006 1166 1334 1189 1302 1222 1135 1005 rsa04_m 940 900 988 983 914 699 730 939 1027 1335 1595 rsa04_m 950 1498 1438 1207 1205 1270 1208 1349 1233 1154 987 rsa04_m 960 1366 1127 1088 1174 1684 1506 1131 1352 1305 877 rsa04_m 970 1118 1066 1108 978 1192 1268 1275 987 932 1270 rsa04_m 980 1166 1001 1272 1200 1394 1146 822 1135 1343 1147 rsa04_m 990 1391 1344 1171 1342 1112 991 1013 869 922 1084 rsa04_m 1000 887 855 723 865 937 1083 795 790 1182 1217 rsa04_m 1010 1025 952 865 868 848 922 702 641 986 1304 rsa04_m 1020 538 444 835 882 869 710 833 669 807 788 rsa04_m 1030 939 835 826 784 685 733 582 672 697 656 rsa04_m 1040 520 758 851 547 712 643 647 571 515 475 rsa04_m 1050 463 430 428 433 299 414 352 330 348 482 rsa04_m 1060 604 485 486 526 665 650 570 952 1154 738 rsa04_m 1070 647 690 718 719 524 362 405 464 489 430 rsa04_m 1080 489 547 605 686 679 702 734 819 561 659 rsa04_m 1090 540 584 593 558 539 428 402 458 447 494 rsa04_m 1100 480 419 451 367 420 471 505 401 428 435 rsa04_m 1110 398 485 396 417 351 320 346 265 313 274 rsa04_m 1120 319 274 272 292 510 450 405 420 416 279 rsa04_m 1130 452 507 510 538 578 526 522 531 584 756 rsa04_m 1140 560 660 511 697 564 598 573 417 476 497 rsa04_m 1150 497 363 373 406 423 371 367 317 284 319 rsa04_m 1160 415 443 464 403 356 367 359 380 352 321 rsa04_m 1170 457 274 410 375 345 408 421 487 613 486 rsa04_m 1180 549 465 620 625 632 553 766 595 480 504 rsa04_m 1190 463 361 429 434 470 496 483 367 354 305 rsa04_m 1200 306 381 428 350 370 403 448 586 999 rsa05_m 974 1591 1723 1739 2276 2232 2088 rsa05_m 980 2249 1896 2306 2212 1973 2585 2519 2428 2624 2331 rsa05_m 990 1909 2147 2327 2654 1968 2019 2360 2081 2060 2285 rsa05_m 1000 1984 2015 1895 2395 1893 2408 2316 2265 2545 2942 rsa05_m 1010 2662 2578 2251 2530 1711 1931 2062 2287 2219 2260 rsa05_m 1020 1255 1592 2050 2045 2044 2025 2196 1926 2527 1598 rsa05_m 1030 1817 2208 1906 1727 1730 1876 1663 1564 1260 1177 rsa05_m 1040 959 1410 1647 1274 1447 1227 1364 1374 1217 1254 rsa05_m 1050 1227 1009 1126 855 458 622 716 669 731 823 rsa05_m 1060 867 893 943 980 1228 1385 1187 1085 1154 1046 rsa05_m 1070 926 922 986 956 914 825 803 919 989 919 rsa05_m 1080 990 1040 882 1006 951 896 924 1033 853 855 rsa05_m 1090 723 955 978 863 635 638 648 810 742 766 rsa05_m 1100 763 742 803 662 663 760 772 710 727 722 rsa05_m 1110 742 907 718 615 564 558 603 539 565 537 rsa05_m 1120 672 490 462 516 817 812 661 679 684 507 rsa05_m 1130 672 609 497 582 540 535 482 530 481 595 rsa05_m 1140 516 504 465 476 394 468 497 348 398 431 rsa05_m 1150 398 325 314 365 401 421 367 338 299 318 rsa05_m 1160 294 290 270 308 236 268 246 291 241 279 rsa05_m 1170 310 235 226 275 269 316 365 317 411 314 rsa05_m 1180 311 268 323 315 252 306 347 259 302 299 rsa05_m 1190 191 196 211 208 253 199 194 143 227 182 rsa05_m 1200 168 218 221 238 207 268 282 219 210 218 rsa05_m 1210 232 242 282 235 252 177 225 196 235 258 rsa05_m 1220 250 254 175 215 219 999 rsa07_m 1126 1821 1304 1009 934 rsa07_m 1130 1165 1098 1095 777 891 977 1028 1059 954 1104 rsa07_m 1140 1209 1044 1065 1351 1354 1177 1139 905 1086 1231 rsa07_m 1150 1207 860 781 845 817 856 877 893 838 980 rsa07_m 1160 975 1030 973 991 831 793 717 681 642 615 rsa07_m 1170 643 539 556 536 494 527 554 685 575 649 rsa07_m 1180 685 596 633 540 484 439 529 381 355 360 rsa07_m 1190 365 279 300 317 331 360 323 296 318 330 rsa07_m 1200 263 301 413 443 425 512 451 446 489 472 rsa07_m 1210 455 478 497 454 570 430 423 407 450 584 rsa07_m 1220 588 545 469 523 476 499 492 453 390 406 rsa07_m 1230 408 380 375 299 328 384 330 281 362 395 rsa07_m 1240 411 463 379 407 402 439 378 404 301 378 rsa07_m 1250 369 283 291 227 229 276 272 364 310 455 rsa07_m 1260 371 240 292 340 234 367 434 362 376 424 rsa07_m 1270 384 343 343 336 340 367 347 263 222 222 rsa07_m 1280 232 265 286 266 305 351 379 256 358 369 rsa07_m 1290 385 421 383 394 482 423 490 509 497 417 rsa07_m 1300 341 343 357 371 408 245 232 174 217 181 rsa07_m 1310 164 222 212 198 198 144 131 185 120 155 rsa07_m 1320 204 171 200 237 251 310 274 275 310 281 rsa07_m 1330 294 204 261 246 267 221 160 127 131 129 rsa07_m 1340 120 135 129 116 102 109 96 84 79 93 rsa07_m 1350 85 54 115 109 107 71 123 92 110 111 rsa07_m 1360 114 104 101 116 113 139 105 143 148 140 rsa07_m 1370 140 177 192 179 163 145 147 133 120 140 rsa07_m 1380 156 168 118 117 122 999 rsa09_km1069 2155 rsa09_km1070 1948 1663 1476 1857 1490 1359 1189 1705 2070 1966 rsa09_km1080 1891 2583 2355 2236 1823 1957 2401 2239 1630 1845 rsa09_km1090 1804 1874 1941 1867 1533 1780 1759 1865 1692 2392 rsa09_km1100 2088 1818 1970 1642 1555 1607 1835 1874 2026 2006 rsa09_km1110 1966 2068 1921 1769 1578 1677 1522 1265 1333 1166 rsa09_km1120 1389 993 1191 1344 1326 1506 1259 1168 1528 1439 rsa09_km1130 1545 1289 1230 1326 1583 1637 1619 1698 1669 1776 rsa09_km1140 1595 1531 1452 1765 1498 1640 1681 1044 1491 1670 rsa09_km1150 1534 1067 1278 1623 1403 1247 1220 1299 1102 1024 rsa09_km1160 1282 1238 1080 1111 1059 1194 1080 1263 1249 1208 rsa09_km1170 1197 1070 1103 1195 868 1088 1405 1238 1207 1158 rsa09_km1180 1007 1010 967 893 1083 886 1032 862 777 740 rsa09_km1190 674 590 682 595 749 950 542 563 582 648 rsa09_km1200 530 616 422 600 373 682 565 999 rsa11_m 1243 1822 1799 1378 1803 1740 1335 1880 rsa11_m 1250 1899 1749 1899 2305 2289 2685 1922 1976 1626 2056 rsa11_m 1260 1845 1473 1520 1282 1386 1166 1264 1355 1431 1447 rsa11_m 1270 1027 1305 1106 918 1282 1288 1035 1489 1005 1090 rsa11_m 1280 928 778 846 1102 898 946 897 869 1022 923 rsa11_m 1290 987 957 1117 1199 1247 1404 1064 1350 1156 770 rsa11_m 1300 865 990 851 958 1037 1007 974 877 973 1010 rsa11_m 1310 911 1109 1009 1225 1275 874 972 1019 819 900 rsa11_m 1320 1058 931 978 967 1045 1178 982 992 1022 821 rsa11_m 1330 742 573 835 733 798 733 557 629 647 572 rsa11_m 1340 620 561 492 556 525 521 513 475 456 515 rsa11_m 1350 512 418 509 461 459 317 400 510 618 585 rsa11_m 1360 489 500 496 550 550 659 381 575 557 571 rsa11_m 1370 477 532 527 529 442 405 407 388 415 372 rsa11_m 1380 416 422 275 309 381 458 398 366 340 436 rsa11_m 1390 444 343 356 405 342 297 309 382 376 342 rsa11_m 1400 413 436 413 517 430 418 280 513 473 400 rsa11_m 1410 367 419 360 352 323 400 280 296 288 297 rsa11_m 1420 265 320 305 268 426 292 236 215 221 218 rsa11_m 1430 119 263 253 249 244 256 241 250 180 253 rsa11_m 1440 243 186 270 218 226 266 228 239 206 174 rsa11_m 1450 146 100 175 153 97 142 91 59 105 96 rsa11_m 1460 93 124 88 57 80 55 999 rsa12_m 1229 1725 rsa12_m 1230 3055 2957 1910 1407 1480 1107 812 920 1183 1414 rsa12_m 1240 1897 1558 1117 1653 934 1068 1061 1294 990 1237 rsa12_m 1250 1229 1147 1108 1735 1365 1450 1205 1525 1180 1433 rsa12_m 1260 1432 1194 1416 1242 1445 1149 1362 1339 1375 1209 rsa12_m 1270 1150 1149 1009 972 1249 1076 900 1156 925 921 rsa12_m 1280 1123 1177 1012 1082 894 1147 1058 876 960 1011 rsa12_m 1290 994 854 773 796 980 1225 964 1083 752 668 rsa12_m 1300 640 599 595 765 755 719 809 740 831 817 rsa12_m 1310 615 811 712 739 730 568 537 606 465 594 rsa12_m 1320 600 572 550 592 658 464 493 408 529 693 rsa12_m 1330 563 410 483 497 545 492 465 462 428 432 rsa12_m 1340 454 384 332 351 311 307 356 260 260 221 rsa12_m 1350 287 221 245 275 241 206 199 214 258 328 rsa12_m 1360 287 345 357 378 399 351 291 319 377 324 rsa12_m 1370 283 331 295 294 281 237 281 260 216 230 rsa12_m 1380 200 193 212 205 213 166 229 243 243 299 rsa12_m 1390 251 233 193 198 196 208 244 233 246 251 rsa12_m 1400 200 174 172 189 180 176 122 184 175 173 rsa12_m 1410 126 153 128 149 105 152 137 133 114 139 rsa12_m 1420 119 145 122 117 167 122 76 120 102 115 rsa12_m 1430 81 152 141 152 148 150 131 162 99 152 rsa12_m 1440 144 128 134 154 142 155 138 174 163 129 rsa12_m 1450 112 52 177 141 117 129 104 128 163 219 rsa12_m 1460 166 196 103 213 158 116 104 151 151 92 rsa12_m 1470 149 152 167 149 235 197 176 183 211 188 rsa12_m 1480 290 224 149 159 191 79 247 337 207 220 rsa12_m 1490 172 211 162 116 156 142 235 103 188 164 rsa12_m 1500 182 183 179 156 179 175 167 152 159 192 rsa12_m 1510 246 196 200 227 222 130 174 142 131 165 rsa12_m 1520 195 176 162 159 192 195 170 252 226 189 rsa12_m 1530 188 194 200 63 222 176 147 203 175 208 rsa12_m 1540 220 241 133 258 228 163 225 155 999 rsa13_m 1282 1922 1649 1499 1693 1533 1382 1484 1494 rsa13_m 1290 1326 1412 1086 1348 1397 1869 1452 1775 1645 1051 rsa13_m 1300 972 1189 899 1045 1148 1310 1271 1054 1120 1103 rsa13_m 1310 801 1005 859 1067 877 873 800 1083 880 906 rsa13_m 1320 912 935 883 968 977 1099 881 878 934 788 rsa13_m 1330 795 602 821 829 874 702 705 602 620 625 rsa13_m 1340 720 657 653 611 673 537 650 649 564 541 rsa13_m 1350 541 500 643 574 544 452 513 590 669 730 rsa13_m 1360 787 693 639 828 878 862 600 767 669 599 rsa13_m 1370 548 549 581 545 572 401 357 377 485 425 rsa13_m 1380 434 374 355 498 531 586 574 494 567 590 rsa13_m 1390 425 460 571 509 404 481 486 406 484 461 rsa13_m 1400 536 524 542 599 574 655 523 652 715 678 rsa13_m 1410 668 700 544 498 454 565 496 525 462 463 rsa13_m 1420 455 555 553 584 720 421 234 249 247 282 rsa13_m 1430 231 272 333 343 326 395 323 333 329 377 rsa13_m 1440 273 332 489 371 999 rsa17_m 1296 1343 1685 2249 1724 rsa17_m 1300 1307 1508 1348 1126 990 1212 1218 1100 1225 1208 rsa17_m 1310 1227 1388 1225 1264 1192 1093 711 998 875 1035 rsa17_m 1320 1282 1212 1309 1379 1593 1641 1479 1420 1655 1594 rsa17_m 1330 1255 827 1424 1460 1399 1037 923 1112 998 1009 rsa17_m 1340 1008 1122 1008 1067 800 794 764 588 507 568 rsa17_m 1350 691 567 670 503 561 453 573 688 707 651 rsa17_m 1360 595 680 535 571 477 522 508 586 454 362 rsa17_m 1370 373 420 392 435 408 418 381 394 394 456 rsa17_m 1380 472 481 413 459 639 632 484 392 320 449 rsa17_m 1390 458 461 347 382 295 203 223 297 340 382 rsa17_m 1400 381 363 413 391 356 421 324 360 391 311 rsa17_m 1410 304 342 286 298 284 337 282 293 354 416 rsa17_m 1420 376 465 423 356 474 323 350 433 422 426 rsa17_m 1430 486 565 502 463 440 419 359 378 373 388 rsa17_m 1440 359 309 468 333 315 310 216 268 276 214 rsa17_m 1450 214 211 308 278 230 233 270 280 169 232 rsa17_m 1460 223 288 225 217 218 203 999 rsa18_m 1197 1155 1020 1046 rsa18_m 1200 1309 1292 1489 1549 1934 1983 1873 1069 1255 1154 rsa18_m 1210 1264 1256 1363 1133 1353 1139 1331 1139 1382 1500 rsa18_m 1220 1229 1146 1065 1125 1296 1213 1194 1087 1092 1130 rsa18_m 1230 1174 1115 1286 1036 1172 1130 832 929 1340 1231 rsa18_m 1240 1134 1334 1056 1187 837 1084 1035 1457 1509 1304 rsa18_m 1250 1303 1151 1300 1632 1432 1435 1072 1205 994 1365 rsa18_m 1260 1050 906 922 990 791 730 947 674 870 755 rsa18_m 1270 746 1041 994 860 985 809 615 943 736 784 rsa18_m 1280 981 679 684 886 869 1073 1074 661 990 999 rsa19_m 1025 1325 1620 1484 1993 1657 rsa19_m 1030 1956 2217 1796 2277 1460 1437 1496 1984 1590 2072 rsa19_m 1040 1608 2114 2069 1761 1946 1764 2007 2330 1796 2546 rsa19_m 1050 3113 2009 2012 1854 1247 1778 1483 1614 1719 1557 rsa19_m 1060 1690 1579 2020 1682 2243 2602 2303 1526 1714 1433 rsa19_m 1070 1644 1607 1388 1351 1183 1087 1233 2286 2513 1806 rsa19_m 1080 1770 2338 1758 1450 1437 1152 1849 2047 861 1382 rsa19_m 1090 1355 1566 1580 1629 1442 1526 1058 1467 1503 1733 rsa19_m 1100 1330 1000 1195 981 897 1070 1309 1251 1282 1599 rsa19_m 1110 1536 1919 1387 1232 1058 963 1043 880 876 957 rsa19_m 1120 1279 1079 1038 1377 1348 1849 1468 1364 1451 780 rsa19_m 1130 1096 1037 980 1068 1240 991 863 1108 997 1017 rsa19_m 1140 669 616 497 702 584 662 760 458 608 792 rsa19_m 1150 690 470 430 673 805 746 656 623 401 458 rsa19_m 1160 753 851 535 665 556 655 591 711 695 812 rsa19_m 1170 773 609 597 648 425 577 837 766 704 852 rsa19_m 1180 836 816 908 1009 997 1205 1358 979 842 906 rsa19_m 1190 893 691 801 768 837 781 674 424 674 627 rsa19_m 1200 683 654 697 758 817 1266 1032 830 792 682 rsa19_m 1210 796 538 633 485 665 492 510 547 537 761 rsa19_m 1220 663 592 999 rsa20_km1210 910 940 983 905 1048 759 1049 934 984 1005 rsa20_km1220 787 733 702 744 927 736 882 901 760 801 rsa20_km1230 805 722 957 742 696 705 605 717 753 773 rsa20_km1240 788 896 795 1011 599 607 621 600 592 662 rsa20_km1250 606 538 557 719 526 557 532 543 483 535 rsa20_km1260 532 485 573 628 557 487 532 424 546 652 rsa20_km1270 610 625 596 486 569 539 401 578 394 447 rsa20_km1280 460 371 429 502 460 476 418 342 440 526 rsa20_km1290 482 463 522 456 547 645 530 636 597 409 rsa20_km1300 451 434 388 453 457 430 380 406 502 429 rsa20_km1310 427 553 445 436 470 408 422 558 421 471 rsa20_km1320 567 501 489 472 514 496 523 448 445 402 rsa20_km1330 396 303 506 482 477 467 415 371 426 444 rsa20_km1340 450 429 433 495 450 418 393 375 339 458 rsa20_km1350 384 348 391 323 273 278 296 378 444 464 rsa20_km1360 479 467 400 358 435 421 306 433 398 364 rsa20_km1370 323 445 354 378 322 273 249 231 259 228 rsa20_km1380 243 219 191 251 292 252 274 228 224 263 rsa20_km1390 235 200 203 175 197 216 205 192 209 214 rsa20_km1400 202 169 188 199 173 214 187 183 265 191 rsa20_km1410 206 229 203 222 165 183 161 156 120 175 rsa20_km1420 157 186 147 166 250 206 157 170 190 145 rsa20_km1430 137 173 166 206 166 196 154 148 144 180 rsa20_km1440 201 133 156 210 210 242 197 238 247 181 rsa20_km1450 169 142 144 159 115 118 132 128 163 147 rsa20_km1460 188 188 185 216 175 168 148 159 146 136 rsa20_km1470 155 150 188 189 236 201 209 271 205 220 rsa20_km1480 283 298 256 247 288 237 263 348 308 281 rsa20_km1490 252 269 276 202 275 263 284 213 325 305 rsa20_km1500 360 341 384 421 342 324 329 381 361 388 rsa20_km1510 453 386 446 422 386 352 391 396 413 361 rsa20_km1520 293 334 281 351 353 412 360 412 440 415 rsa20_km1530 343 374 334 277 444 373 319 334 292 284 rsa20_km1540 313 281 249 345 335 300 333 331 328 254 rsa20_km1550 256 325 285 296 226 261 314 319 294 295 rsa20_km1560 290 316 275 238 286 305 280 279 280 320 rsa20_km1570 300 232 353 295 253 288 200 208 226 201 rsa20_km1580 242 264 264 357 275 262 328 282 149 203 rsa20_km1590 272 254 212 211 240 249 148 237 156 252 rsa20_km1600 195 230 163 271 285 173 255 242 487 237 rsa20_km1610 383 444 283 304 571 669 547 291 384 518 rsa20_km1620 508 999 rsa22_m 1484 564 651 603 574 582 682 rsa22_m 1490 796 782 998 636 1104 1308 876 449 585 690 rsa22_m 1500 714 942 615 649 888 736 810 813 965 793 rsa22_m 1510 846 628 813 641 550 515 603 572 467 610 rsa22_m 1520 555 598 366 481 488 502 563 553 537 606 rsa22_m 1530 568 528 499 478 534 543 527 656 539 569 rsa22_m 1540 765 696 606 727 922 781 944 1096 1171 750 rsa22_m 1550 622 670 927 867 600 794 1058 870 743 630 rsa22_m 1560 529 737 648 587 480 526 614 810 956 658 rsa22_m 1570 599 615 887 398 469 606 390 241 385 252 rsa22_m 1580 355 246 203 304 241 278 254 235 184 199 rsa22_m 1590 242 139 187 232 228 180 92 129 132 150 rsa22_m 1600 105 122 139 169 182 200 247 261 245 245 rsa22_m 1610 350 498 389 438 443 999 rsa24_m 1423 1288 1266 1045 856 666 686 815 rsa24_m 1430 927 722 751 1000 814 683 597 562 548 695 rsa24_m 1440 747 606 887 896 695 662 530 614 604 558 rsa24_m 1450 460 656 703 701 740 700 850 985 822 783 rsa24_m 1460 708 803 731 753 794 711 917 865 837 914 rsa24_m 1470 976 875 807 864 926 869 967 878 787 928 rsa24_m 1480 861 790 760 845 702 706 799 992 1015 894 rsa24_m 1490 1048 967 809 801 914 851 798 666 884 907 rsa24_m 1500 1017 1111 1213 713 744 709 848 1162 894 996 rsa24_m 1510 1010 959 1112 857 778 576 616 619 826 785 rsa24_m 1520 505 588 412 522 742 651 743 649 718 899 rsa24_m 1530 925 843 774 847 850 726 554 630 584 671 rsa24_m 1540 624 482 612 611 588 691 763 778 727 569 rsa24_m 1550 545 683 640 633 696 610 678 666 573 600 rsa24_m 1560 750 773 656 585 586 690 657 684 662 633 rsa24_m 1570 600 555 728 738 713 838 602 534 527 444 rsa24_m 1580 432 406 565 649 714 703 800 594 403 404 rsa24_m 1590 408 388 409 341 420 435 388 433 401 340 rsa24_m 1600 479 415 430 420 496 423 326 364 465 454 rsa24_m 1610 506 597 546 539 548 593 666 566 574 535 rsa24_m 1620 509 664 627 664 627 858 865 1127 763 1208 rsa24_m 1630 843 645 559 518 501 532 622 737 886 1024 rsa24_m 1640 1615 1387 1382 1013 792 591 665 390 742 901 rsa24_m 1650 1128 856 1019 1032 737 709 689 684 606 677 rsa24_m 1660 580 874 715 600 880 698 946 781 683 827 rsa24_m 1670 642 631 602 793 821 522 732 690 515 462 rsa24_m 1680 507 999 rsa25_m 947 1033 985 1205 rsa25_m 950 1122 1075 1256 1055 788 924 1145 877 1079 1025 rsa25_m 960 1344 1004 833 791 1007 1065 979 842 758 781 rsa25_m 970 760 620 697 510 536 625 552 616 527 537 rsa25_m 980 406 357 612 909 708 566 453 389 509 346 rsa25_m 990 546 490 385 441 357 256 377 464 445 528 rsa25_m 1000 580 776 613 641 479 729 697 737 906 902 rsa25_m 1010 839 912 892 1006 621 719 579 530 722 778 rsa25_m 1020 535 338 522 582 704 788 942 761 778 655 rsa25_m 1030 906 986 893 850 723 597 506 376 501 570 rsa25_m 1040 471 472 640 645 787 1004 1238 1081 1096 1118 rsa25_m 1050 1271 1057 1056 963 569 857 800 703 662 801 rsa25_m 1060 903 920 1163 930 1024 1020 827 1232 1430 1024 rsa25_m 1070 917 905 818 737 636 548 729 748 875 808 rsa25_m 1080 881 1172 933 1006 813 748 804 841 643 751 rsa25_m 1090 847 1101 885 893 841 782 823 780 656 1080 rsa25_m 1100 976 963 927 632 695 683 894 640 740 616 rsa25_m 1110 665 809 571 618 483 555 525 566 491 454 rsa25_m 1120 597 402 426 508 656 713 557 585 550 383 rsa25_m 1130 454 506 446 500 538 477 413 485 486 486 rsa25_m 1140 463 450 382 471 413 510 470 329 512 483 rsa25_m 1150 483 310 413 468 464 472 522 633 465 594 rsa25_m 1160 668 655 632 473 595 574 448 390 385 444 rsa25_m 1170 544 560 432 473 338 372 585 629 572 495 rsa25_m 1180 598 463 438 449 452 430 999 rsa28_m 823 2231 2546 2006 1625 1339 1842 1234 rsa28_m 830 1530 1580 1407 1500 1834 1758 2156 1739 1568 1983 rsa28_m 840 2004 1949 2226 1835 1935 1685 1534 1306 1543 1469 rsa28_m 850 1560 1851 1635 1639 1484 1403 1581 1543 1747 1452 rsa28_m 860 1645 1430 1130 1273 1335 1113 1102 1203 1248 1231 rsa28_m 870 1009 988 973 905 893 1137 1090 1057 1355 1252 rsa28_m 880 1184 1062 1039 872 833 909 1017 1016 1061 1126 rsa28_m 890 1151 1123 1097 825 946 822 734 1080 768 754 rsa28_m 900 650 741 764 747 623 573 523 467 354 402 rsa28_m 910 418 425 499 562 581 535 663 657 533 524 rsa28_m 920 424 405 511 445 588 405 515 507 551 522 rsa28_m 930 423 490 561 483 480 411 475 457 410 386 rsa28_m 940 381 500 387 403 224 329 298 999 rsa29_m 1296 1587 2157 2663 2089 rsa29_m 1300 1727 2178 1929 1486 2539 2331 1923 1544 1910 1278 rsa29_m 1310 1171 1719 1489 1745 1484 1342 1245 1435 813 689 rsa29_m 1320 1409 1247 1038 1433 1631 1433 1258 1101 1377 1539 rsa29_m 1330 1015 787 2097 1708 1953 1277 941 931 945 1022 rsa29_m 1340 1049 920 770 840 574 589 590 380 381 482 rsa29_m 1350 469 439 544 435 601 502 621 594 891 820 rsa29_m 1360 877 965 907 976 1124 1171 913 1242 982 652 rsa29_m 1370 742 621 646 683 714 589 572 517 742 653 rsa29_m 1380 744 702 581 653 853 869 781 651 657 768 rsa29_m 1390 611 654 580 652 689 605 738 799 815 769 rsa29_m 1400 737 1001 718 892 810 832 543 644 679 783 rsa29_m 1410 829 882 720 714 513 652 546 473 554 608 rsa29_m 1420 490 799 551 684 769 700 660 746 690 785 rsa29_m 1430 571 668 650 758 823 716 680 664 618 777 rsa29_m 1440 628 470 631 470 626 710 461 637 686 413 rsa29_m 1450 494 471 568 473 472 510 461 524 501 375 rsa29_m 1460 325 375 220 355 395 315 271 284 295 256 rsa29_m 1470 389 339 313 475 469 410 410 323 252 277 rsa29_m 1480 278 155 149 999 rsa30_m 1444 1316 1280 1596 1380 1122 1261 rsa30_m 1450 1401 1318 1380 1113 970 1079 1030 1029 962 1082 rsa30_m 1460 1148 2260 1329 916 790 826 833 898 834 738 rsa30_m 1470 940 927 1016 1559 1613 2027 2360 1672 1904 1883 rsa30_m 1480 1545 2113 1840 1884 1714 1512 2131 1942 1461 1230 rsa30_m 1490 1702 1486 1450 1179 1214 1179 1134 794 1048 915 rsa30_m 1500 920 993 1113 1131 1284 1003 976 1111 1221 1040 rsa30_m 1510 1126 790 1257 1006 1045 843 1047 959 1310 992 rsa30_m 1520 1092 941 726 741 608 539 574 523 404 436 rsa30_m 1530 511 666 633 568 439 443 397 500 442 591 rsa30_m 1540 604 424 475 494 412 319 308 289 413 274 rsa30_m 1550 253 999 rsa31_m 1273 930 1145 833 636 691 497 457 rsa31_m 1280 667 483 524 597 673 763 687 349 463 479 rsa31_m 1290 608 573 756 725 845 1008 880 822 736 615 rsa31_m 1300 577 564 531 539 786 830 771 577 759 757 rsa31_m 1310 680 853 756 852 724 620 601 661 273 415 rsa31_m 1320 523 483 448 487 536 594 561 684 681 594 rsa31_m 1330 463 293 529 511 598 541 452 449 418 382 rsa31_m 1340 407 399 259 318 294 295 268 257 241 248 rsa31_m 1350 279 261 389 272 284 241 269 318 367 365 rsa31_m 1360 385 530 405 431 315 394 287 479 420 392 rsa31_m 1370 483 480 509 578 396 438 508 528 504 462 rsa31_m 1380 513 555 415 448 549 496 521 489 410 394 rsa31_m 1390 417 446 358 531 431 384 386 504 501 416 rsa31_m 1400 420 416 442 782 545 466 299 486 590 481 rsa31_m 1410 419 455 439 494 428 999 rsa35_m 997 1755 1560 2108 rsa35_m 1000 1590 1820 1501 1521 1181 1442 1372 1188 1453 1435 rsa35_m 1010 1370 1447 1404 1344 960 1102 1066 1147 1178 1266 rsa35_m 1020 696 647 916 1022 1154 937 1165 947 1026 647 rsa35_m 1030 1022 1218 1126 1129 1083 1105 1113 1000 1073 975 rsa35_m 1040 634 522 754 590 729 722 850 738 776 803 rsa35_m 1050 765 667 732 547 473 495 538 526 564 512 rsa35_m 1060 601 577 699 541 646 761 478 718 746 625 rsa35_m 1070 696 628 627 605 614 627 606 721 901 777 rsa35_m 1080 771 764 729 777 790 661 663 662 553 802 rsa35_m 1090 557 728 662 828 582 597 563 775 543 1013 rsa35_m 1100 785 649 752 632 505 649 731 562 504 533 rsa35_m 1110 669 863 623 715 573 516 477 473 502 535 rsa35_m 1120 778 551 948 931 800 821 844 864 988 700 rsa35_m 1130 864 778 715 773 767 999 rsa36_m 1010 912 588 498 603 396 508 885 586 713 1667 rsa36_m 1020 1473 2121 2203 1803 2478 1898 1553 1390 902 583 rsa36_m 1030 771 687 723 1306 1810 1545 1459 1025 1227 983 rsa36_m 1040 988 1484 1486 1006 1221 755 1027 772 890 966 rsa36_m 1050 813 674 923 758 547 518 573 616 722 705 rsa36_m 1060 709 668 860 820 810 867 835 1087 1582 1062 rsa36_m 1070 1029 836 646 958 824 781 955 1315 1063 906 rsa36_m 1080 1143 1356 1084 1240 1088 1082 842 862 643 990 rsa36_m 1090 996 1119 1171 1115 959 1229 811 1194 1072 1392 rsa36_m 1100 944 1034 1073 702 854 958 1078 822 758 753 rsa36_m 1110 913 1101 781 943 703 703 692 594 697 673 rsa36_m 1120 1191 711 679 900 994 1028 903 846 1028 689 rsa36_m 1130 782 756 708 705 712 682 611 702 700 767 rsa36_m 1140 800 761 550 699 437 577 663 381 518 613 rsa36_m 1150 551 405 413 509 517 432 470 523 501 462 rsa36_m 1160 801 760 626 546 474 502 303 439 484 496 rsa36_m 1170 579 436 460 589 532 468 622 622 556 520 rsa36_m 1180 585 520 646 557 604 605 612 999 rsa37_m 1377 402 405 430 rsa37_m 1380 445 484 442 490 590 524 549 541 490 507 rsa37_m 1390 538 541 440 574 473 422 427 527 430 471 rsa37_m 1400 411 459 467 386 352 392 329 345 334 322 rsa37_m 1410 318 351 387 385 336 331 309 341 346 336 rsa37_m 1420 351 376 336 345 381 291 278 317 274 258 rsa37_m 1430 242 277 318 305 282 269 284 234 268 276 rsa37_m 1440 259 225 285 243 266 228 210 223 213 173 rsa37_m 1450 163 141 144 159 119 146 137 140 161 160 rsa37_m 1460 143 166 151 131 129 111 111 92 112 116 rsa37_m 1470 119 121 151 141 157 121 120 100 126 126 rsa37_m 1480 134 119 101 162 156 92 163 187 141 133 rsa37_m 1490 103 107 91 87 102 96 106 51 120 93 rsa37_m 1500 88 113 107 124 134 110 143 149 136 141 rsa37_m 1510 181 160 158 143 166 120 139 132 154 126 rsa37_m 1520 115 145 121 140 87 157 137 161 167 205 rsa37_m 1530 133 156 154 123 206 165 162 151 160 171 rsa37_m 1540 203 191 109 144 157 155 145 157 162 113 rsa37_m 1550 139 151 165 143 97 174 163 146 130 80 rsa37_m 1560 96 73 103 88 105 77 123 119 132 125 rsa37_m 1570 113 90 155 58 148 112 67 115 98 50 rsa37_m 1580 103 69 95 143 99 120 158 150 125 999 rsa38_m 1551 896 1261 1116 1104 741 780 757 438 614 rsa38_m 1560 662 830 700 704 810 780 711 866 789 537 rsa38_m 1570 500 486 733 497 347 447 446 476 538 436 rsa38_m 1580 415 284 283 405 390 550 557 447 301 568 rsa38_m 1590 513 480 546 490 468 418 304 453 436 650 rsa38_m 1600 641 408 472 575 668 723 893 1140 992 581 rsa38_m 1610 690 1415 1017 883 1083 1052 859 964 1154 964 rsa38_m 1620 774 910 842 740 790 670 621 826 511 862 rsa38_m 1630 781 1149 799 1001 1086 1458 1471 1639 1678 1027 rsa38_m 1640 1303 1329 1282 1232 1284 1288 1485 957 1181 1135 rsa38_m 1650 1054 688 874 1044 899 918 1120 857 814 1019 rsa38_m 1660 1153 1125 997 955 1351 981 1439 1103 709 866 rsa38_m 1670 729 590 582 744 590 412 747 815 606 982 rsa38_m 1680 886 976 885 1075 1332 988 1732 1540 901 751 rsa38_m 1690 969 827 797 789 859 875 807 789 596 755 rsa38_m 1700 881 818 1122 966 989 723 1150 1105 728 884 rsa38_m 1710 980 1022 1105 808 1031 1111 938 658 705 934 rsa38_m 1720 1213 1128 805 999 rsa39_m 1284 975 1180 1100 695 1015 915 rsa39_m 1290 1052 752 748 684 674 861 845 716 620 667 rsa39_m 1300 586 502 405 309 587 792 812 589 865 714 rsa39_m 1310 664 980 887 946 840 816 659 843 623 727 rsa39_m 1320 711 725 608 678 616 657 922 842 933 865 rsa39_m 1330 753 643 986 831 966 939 751 580 625 540 rsa39_m 1340 507 486 407 436 356 375 340 273 247 322 rsa39_m 1350 358 263 310 291 287 267 253 297 369 461 rsa39_m 1360 480 432 386 394 395 466 462 548 664 544 rsa39_m 1370 590 545 489 544 513 401 392 421 456 397 rsa39_m 1380 409 389 366 373 470 433 430 403 427 479 rsa39_m 1390 416 553 563 464 471 453 440 496 435 443 rsa39_m 1400 436 432 413 487 480 417 285 314 365 336 rsa39_m 1410 253 283 274 339 273 348 367 322 395 412 rsa39_m 1420 411 432 441 421 502 431 354 418 343 358 rsa39_m 1430 327 415 416 501 514 472 448 390 473 547 rsa39_m 1440 598 573 698 649 641 664 586 653 544 434 rsa39_m 1450 477 580 540 475 398 436 431 406 343 331 rsa39_m 1460 392 500 328 368 285 267 259 277 243 230 rsa39_m 1470 250 233 260 300 361 327 324 357 379 292 rsa39_m 1480 350 409 329 435 377 342 380 496 381 364 rsa39_m 1490 348 315 272 206 270 294 290 218 292 297 rsa39_m 1500 354 351 318 285 317 286 275 343 336 306 rsa39_m 1510 324 284 312 214 220 208 278 352 361 305 rsa39_m 1520 281 279 140 254 167 277 262 222 253 310 rsa39_m 1530 293 397 359 353 354 332 367 341 457 406 rsa39_m 1540 447 405 297 283 999 rsa40_m 1051 549 635 571 479 589 484 462 473 548 rsa40_m 1060 582 556 589 535 719 709 441 650 711 722 rsa40_m 1070 700 588 465 502 464 424 427 405 545 484 rsa40_m 1080 524 588 470 544 567 552 537 662 489 459 rsa40_m 1090 433 474 443 529 430 432 418 512 427 529 rsa40_m 1100 513 489 563 359 393 371 483 404 465 402 rsa40_m 1110 496 426 343 382 399 461 414 419 446 440 rsa40_m 1120 518 430 385 513 556 452 407 441 582 388 rsa40_m 1130 500 502 434 495 424 487 427 457 468 547 rsa40_m 1140 438 422 418 529 403 456 448 262 446 495 rsa40_m 1150 478 336 376 445 538 535 510 552 474 501 rsa40_m 1160 535 488 394 388 312 357 271 344 347 342 rsa40_m 1170 366 274 277 353 218 289 386 346 291 303 rsa40_m 1180 321 370 359 375 370 381 379 319 328 371 rsa40_m 1190 292 283 346 314 461 323 245 245 335 275 rsa40_m 1200 319 299 254 245 211 205 266 242 208 170 rsa40_m 1210 270 204 228 135 172 127 152 160 158 192 rsa40_m 1220 172 211 233 230 162 190 160 137 142 115 rsa40_m 1230 136 96 121 107 108 140 108 127 156 172 rsa40_m 1240 191 176 158 194 156 151 172 188 127 175 rsa40_m 1250 157 168 999 rsa41_m 1011 635 623 554 499 546 433 658 554 572 rsa41_m 1020 391 506 608 512 503 553 585 510 483 337 rsa41_m 1030 500 594 432 463 535 548 516 511 517 509 rsa41_m 1040 464 589 719 550 658 554 616 579 525 553 rsa41_m 1050 594 389 498 486 314 419 406 463 486 634 rsa41_m 1060 621 463 468 439 495 469 387 466 557 474 rsa41_m 1070 493 431 406 488 479 437 457 444 478 454 rsa41_m 1080 443 570 411 540 575 422 418 518 425 475 rsa41_m 1090 453 537 507 473 341 369 368 485 441 564 rsa41_m 1100 563 405 521 278 421 327 380 285 366 323 rsa41_m 1110 388 369 282 336 328 418 355 349 410 381 rsa41_m 1120 396 272 281 456 372 360 386 433 504 265 rsa41_m 1130 348 429 362 430 459 404 354 381 426 486 rsa41_m 1140 403 463 434 522 397 422 387 193 403 357 rsa41_m 1150 350 274 273 408 380 391 413 497 378 466 rsa41_m 1160 530 523 445 405 350 432 384 383 375 378 rsa41_m 1170 486 390 385 460 273 382 506 500 466 447 rsa41_m 1180 433 452 399 370 444 429 457 495 348 409 rsa41_m 1190 316 322 390 333 370 402 417 396 418 360 rsa41_m 1200 425 446 263 354 215 364 435 292 607 519 rsa41_m 1210 406 507 485 343 396 342 347 374 327 407 rsa41_m 1220 355 357 346 381 283 437 358 356 359 383 rsa41_m 1230 401 405 364 325 364 380 278 325 373 382 rsa41_m 1240 388 527 336 476 385 401 412 397 313 423 rsa41_m 1250 393 345 420 365 294 386 287 391 384 504 rsa41_m 1260 400 376 456 417 293 471 392 307 398 372 rsa41_m 1270 394 318 332 320 270 319 238 342 247 260 rsa41_m 1280 232 225 275 233 343 280 310 234 339 299 rsa41_m 1290 286 315 354 333 356 452 398 428 409 317 rsa41_m 1300 312 241 999 rsa42_m 1326 1085 1045 1169 930 rsa42_m 1330 818 500 924 761 867 722 628 641 500 485 rsa42_m 1340 570 530 371 501 482 467 562 530 471 388 rsa42_m 1350 472 430 569 491 600 467 551 638 642 706 rsa42_m 1360 653 600 493 564 568 544 429 474 442 341 rsa42_m 1370 392 379 406 426 366 383 328 439 466 428 rsa42_m 1380 446 465 444 549 515 517 517 527 516 513 rsa42_m 1390 459 457 385 428 407 352 372 379 352 359 rsa42_m 1400 287 279 271 257 250 272 190 331 322 309 rsa42_m 1410 258 342 319 330 282 312 246 275 307 310 rsa42_m 1420 234 332 259 282 525 420 335 249 273 249 rsa42_m 1430 233 263 280 364 350 312 320 378 326 398 rsa42_m 1440 401 306 464 407 398 454 394 396 422 356 rsa42_m 1450 380 363 373 465 328 314 241 358 318 316 rsa42_m 1460 354 341 229 256 296 274 322 341 381 324 rsa42_m 1470 383 293 379 374 575 532 437 453 364 402 rsa42_m 1480 381 432 350 318 350 269 301 384 380 368 rsa42_m 1490 300 274 315 237 255 298 296 238 326 330 rsa42_m 1500 317 316 332 316 317 302 294 265 249 230 rsa42_m 1510 289 202 217 244 244 231 259 243 249 265 rsa42_m 1520 273 337 240 288 268 309 311 331 282 333 rsa42_m 1530 342 375 340 341 370 297 278 436 423 458 rsa42_m 1540 398 280 278 341 305 999 rsa52_km 635 601 596 669 865 560 rsa52_km 640 573 654 860 787 637 645 593 678 648 670 rsa52_km 650 744 794 864 746 749 962 733 941 1000 721 rsa52_km 660 606 868 562 594 523 740 800 715 641 746 rsa52_km 670 542 535 610 466 598 492 426 490 623 627 rsa52_km 680 569 564 560 420 354 420 383 475 438 394 rsa52_km 690 338 555 490 532 461 435 421 370 517 437 rsa52_km 700 454 488 417 394 370 453 392 326 387 388 rsa52_km 710 371 391 319 267 198 252 299 297 299 291 rsa52_km 720 306 283 291 287 245 303 321 352 352 194 rsa52_km 730 229 256 226 253 279 312 237 263 243 265 rsa52_km 740 259 255 280 233 247 281 276 263 229 211 rsa52_km 750 285 220 243 275 313 267 272 218 313 317 rsa52_km 760 313 240 247 234 271 188 224 140 224 219 rsa52_km 770 233 281 251 251 307 309 250 260 296 263 rsa52_km 780 290 290 295 335 272 268 208 262 293 298 rsa52_km 790 247 300 195 281 240 213 161 242 198 194 rsa52_km 800 160 223 292 158 199 202 207 183 177 135 rsa52_km 810 167 163 147 140 999 rsa54_m 1334 417 352 318 539 342 389 rsa54_m 1340 368 323 307 346 280 289 315 165 175 210 rsa54_m 1350 270 287 373 240 277 283 315 350 379 338 rsa54_m 1360 288 482 407 428 470 460 334 395 433 304 rsa54_m 1370 490 419 505 552 538 481 427 484 550 494 rsa54_m 1380 482 483 538 529 570 525 609 483 491 577 rsa54_m 1390 474 568 504 548 560 591 546 547 545 475 rsa54_m 1400 518 613 473 553 506 476 419 527 576 564 rsa54_m 1410 509 468 504 639 490 562 495 446 475 445 rsa54_m 1420 557 715 587 442 556 419 466 472 526 418 rsa54_m 1430 455 476 496 465 539 487 422 370 410 557 rsa54_m 1440 466 424 511 488 463 513 388 410 532 320 rsa54_m 1450 999 rsa56_m 1242 724 648 602 560 505 552 440 490 rsa56_m 1250 496 612 638 593 436 531 398 510 475 626 rsa56_m 1260 530 346 567 709 495 604 890 563 466 487 rsa56_m 1270 681 592 444 470 411 379 360 327 287 253 rsa56_m 1280 324 216 206 172 242 333 390 248 366 472 rsa56_m 1290 537 508 758 589 698 811 645 756 567 484 rsa56_m 1300 442 539 426 340 478 420 318 246 339 357 rsa56_m 1310 202 355 325 381 411 418 303 458 413 396 rsa56_m 1320 494 482 345 421 560 553 579 576 606 478 rsa56_m 1330 251 248 462 325 357 387 322 375 259 264 rsa56_m 1340 262 237 195 227 198 141 129 122 129 169 rsa56_m 1350 182 144 167 130 173 147 173 186 249 292 rsa56_m 1360 359 399 330 302 347 378 250 348 375 275 rsa56_m 1370 277 349 394 360 327 204 212 177 222 259 rsa56_m 1380 219 228 209 203 285 269 225 213 185 167 rsa56_m 1390 174 185 128 161 134 155 181 256 256 244 rsa56_m 1400 204 201 217 240 185 194 139 168 217 219 rsa56_m 1410 172 156 185 199 159 159 161 174 180 186 rsa56_m 1420 207 257 222 244 354 298 283 284 316 329 rsa56_m 1430 270 407 426 384 441 394 345 334 370 373 rsa56_m 1440 287 289 444 298 357 265 184 275 221 171 rsa56_m 1450 155 213 225 207 155 185 189 206 246 280 rsa56_m 1460 310 314 305 247 259 149 145 148 169 157 rsa56_m 1470 200 297 285 216 999 rsa57_m 1249 586 rsa57_m 1250 658 671 1037 1251 1021 1587 1450 1383 805 1256 rsa57_m 1260 1222 1003 1716 1385 1523 1568 1821 1804 1709 1715 rsa57_m 1270 1726 1757 1580 1628 1743 1434 1108 1215 816 1062 rsa57_m 1280 1631 1514 1371 1260 1045 1447 1226 998 1105 1017 rsa57_m 1290 773 749 799 740 912 883 818 962 1037 828 rsa57_m 1300 878 696 716 736 781 871 895 633 615 794 rsa57_m 1310 683 854 750 814 825 743 703 763 383 669 rsa57_m 1320 662 654 620 798 856 774 732 588 771 712 rsa57_m 1330 582 395 477 467 446 442 391 397 228 316 rsa57_m 1340 351 317 358 402 294 278 237 264 280 311 rsa57_m 1350 329 278 241 266 348 292 283 329 421 506 rsa57_m 1360 557 675 342 412 999 rsa58_m 1249 1624 rsa58_m 1250 1249 915 1043 1083 873 1022 838 947 580 1298 rsa58_m 1260 998 695 867 962 912 825 1022 899 787 787 rsa58_m 1270 830 827 904 737 801 749 678 545 326 399 rsa58_m 1280 644 653 684 660 858 1137 1116 697 1043 1006 rsa58_m 1290 778 787 769 762 916 1159 1088 966 928 681 rsa58_m 1300 674 671 637 589 624 641 780 673 743 731 rsa58_m 1310 539 712 682 848 949 895 673 919 481 625 rsa58_m 1320 788 788 775 947 986 918 1056 1087 1188 940 rsa58_m 1330 726 524 828 773 863 790 766 684 573 632 rsa58_m 1340 567 488 454 469 386 424 363 314 286 376 rsa58_m 1350 412 403 527 485 596 587 488 589 802 864 rsa58_m 1360 974 803 681 664 897 946 481 751 660 361 rsa58_m 1370 395 549 621 473 354 339 360 393 448 397 rsa58_m 1380 355 369 322 390 603 567 640 411 326 383 rsa58_m 1390 354 468 336 415 312 366 352 412 409 420 rsa58_m 1400 325 370 451 472 540 505 340 302 373 398 rsa58_m 1410 362 402 352 409 228 401 351 295 336 330 rsa58_m 1420 427 371 352 372 484 433 426 295 393 377 rsa58_m 1430 319 386 453 500 429 391 293 325 292 358 rsa58_m 1440 430 293 412 339 400 343 277 393 306 270 rsa58_m 1450 227 244 310 338 291 273 251 417 383 439 rsa58_m 1460 505 550 423 419 498 401 371 409 406 411 rsa58_m 1470 442 308 344 421 408 483 382 322 320 307 rsa58_m 1480 305 391 322 362 347 308 401 473 423 378 rsa58_m 1490 381 371 427 368 314 315 212 235 300 319 rsa58_m 1500 318 327 319 348 395 324 999 rsa59_m 1235 2431 1639 1002 1782 1656 rsa59_m 1240 1794 1885 1569 1153 1036 1142 1359 1253 1045 1361 rsa59_m 1250 1154 982 1169 1136 1068 1245 1064 1212 743 1229 rsa59_m 1260 1088 631 1020 973 970 920 1080 1079 1187 1357 rsa59_m 1270 1072 975 1024 958 991 752 756 706 472 533 rsa59_m 1280 857 795 849 975 1007 1616 1327 934 1208 1300 rsa59_m 1290 1024 1107 905 912 1065 1483 1536 1288 1292 832 rsa59_m 1300 901 833 807 838 750 932 1058 989 992 943 rsa59_m 1310 789 1015 880 1005 1126 957 860 924 561 673 rsa59_m 1320 703 753 728 1129 1070 956 1010 1075 1367 943 rsa59_m 1330 707 529 871 872 964 763 626 663 610 687 rsa59_m 1340 668 561 439 595 465 464 436 352 389 426 rsa59_m 1350 499 443 513 522 562 532 595 828 910 838 rsa59_m 1360 803 852 893 673 703 796 649 642 626 426 rsa59_m 1370 552 546 600 643 505 547 488 586 721 548 rsa59_m 1380 557 620 560 543 820 774 822 632 556 616 rsa59_m 1390 616 645 518 552 476 524 589 544 557 584 rsa59_m 1400 542 494 431 555 607 538 433 545 507 609 rsa59_m 1410 562 512 513 553 475 999 rsa60_m 1286 867 991 791 665 rsa60_m 1290 425 533 529 551 499 728 925 843 842 727 rsa60_m 1300 629 667 542 577 369 491 745 851 751 824 rsa60_m 1310 700 737 819 906 783 699 654 815 337 591 rsa60_m 1320 581 724 646 850 800 784 798 810 801 788 rsa60_m 1330 671 562 747 817 864 731 598 751 590 606 rsa60_m 1340 574 490 424 586 412 490 513 488 431 430 rsa60_m 1350 480 536 597 649 738 661 622 741 901 907 rsa60_m 1360 878 796 759 775 986 867 621 688 507 483 rsa60_m 1370 469 597 609 537 455 444 501 516 520 430 rsa60_m 1380 451 470 463 534 687 498 594 588 497 578 rsa60_m 1390 450 395 261 313 271 274 283 343 378 336 rsa60_m 1400 252 364 382 405 481 422 317 310 330 999 rsa63_m 1231 1632 1415 1319 1493 1592 1304 1691 2289 2082 rsa63_m 1240 2155 2450 1815 1705 1577 1610 1552 1771 1704 1679 rsa63_m 1250 1597 1461 1403 1762 1457 1939 1557 1429 968 1330 rsa63_m 1260 1283 1190 1524 1686 1580 1395 1816 1802 1540 1799 rsa63_m 1270 1322 1578 1475 1414 1612 1537 1281 1015 556 469 rsa63_m 1280 556 537 595 627 703 955 885 514 649 664 rsa63_m 1290 731 746 749 713 803 1009 985 1246 1135 822 rsa63_m 1300 842 790 807 655 654 502 478 554 605 648 rsa63_m 1310 669 701 647 874 761 853 671 695 547 698 rsa63_m 1320 857 787 772 901 972 1020 930 1049 1041 1016 rsa63_m 1330 854 653 796 778 755 944 893 845 753 844 rsa63_m 1340 834 708 656 711 542 662 630 576 448 531 rsa63_m 1350 636 642 625 518 697 700 672 678 726 745 rsa63_m 1360 714 855 719 905 930 873 725 758 787 611 rsa63_m 1370 683 754 779 878 819 572 501 424 495 426 rsa63_m 1380 444 518 535 583 738 707 616 603 999 rsa66_m 1403 1079 1027 1237 861 924 1032 981 rsa66_m 1410 911 802 865 889 728 760 593 654 654 653 rsa66_m 1420 557 744 703 662 907 784 706 772 853 745 rsa66_m 1430 707 1031 944 1133 1086 1154 951 904 843 1027 rsa66_m 1440 887 675 847 873 897 714 545 570 579 507 rsa66_m 1450 489 441 612 581 532 549 476 488 623 545 rsa66_m 1460 585 542 323 257 254 193 182 216 214 195 rsa66_m 1470 190 200 204 182 353 267 318 324 305 320 rsa66_m 1480 451 373 377 362 431 298 376 448 410 519 rsa66_m 1490 347 330 302 264 275 209 238 161 209 217 rsa66_m 1500 310 253 188 221 239 299 229 275 286 245 rsa66_m 1510 999 rsa69_m 1359 1115 rsa69_m 1360 1038 1215 1096 1473 1181 1125 974 1214 1022 873 rsa69_m 1370 590 716 707 739 684 505 532 573 555 527 rsa69_m 1380 605 452 427 530 831 637 718 648 651 717 rsa69_m 1390 554 558 424 553 473 408 444 542 474 528 rsa69_m 1400 417 424 508 398 434 413 326 376 405 428 rsa69_m 1410 478 331 358 416 289 318 314 332 330 398 rsa69_m 1420 364 548 494 519 544 542 522 507 511 465 rsa69_m 1430 393 552 493 710 644 584 424 436 482 535 rsa69_m 1440 588 520 592 496 542 538 475 454 444 427 rsa69_m 1450 447 416 488 481 418 403 327 321 391 405 rsa69_m 1460 453 531 441 458 362 368 322 267 233 208 rsa69_m 1470 195 191 209 277 386 310 165 175 120 169 rsa69_m 1480 320 999 rsa71_m 1255 2108 1975 2072 1432 1500 rsa71_m 1260 1338 1310 1948 1835 1614 1315 1234 1630 1376 1509 rsa71_m 1270 1224 1261 1099 1106 1272 1133 998 1003 708 561 rsa71_m 1280 652 621 675 754 676 781 846 768 863 794 rsa71_m 1290 740 794 880 751 895 1077 1043 1316 1089 1064 rsa71_m 1300 960 898 860 715 682 805 1033 814 1102 948 rsa71_m 1310 864 1067 908 913 977 912 839 958 715 898 rsa71_m 1320 955 866 817 900 1134 1026 994 1133 1163 945 rsa71_m 1330 742 578 832 729 804 700 699 782 738 778 rsa71_m 1340 829 758 623 761 598 703 539 495 510 526 rsa71_m 1350 754 641 822 773 841 797 765 912 1022 1021 rsa71_m 1360 994 1019 851 950 853 829 672 771 740 556 rsa71_m 1370 616 629 577 514 496 413 416 486 581 502 rsa71_m 1380 449 446 382 456 531 574 566 500 547 534 rsa71_m 1390 512 500 464 531 419 397 321 406 377 424 rsa71_m 1400 411 287 283 255 291 316 291 336 328 371 rsa71_m 1410 331 321 326 351 305 375 357 408 447 422 rsa71_m 1420 999 rsa73_m 1244 490 383 664 635 755 629 rsa73_m 1250 564 355 464 579 573 621 669 711 694 619 rsa73_m 1260 496 559 790 1001 823 676 833 946 911 991 rsa73_m 1270 996 843 698 793 900 733 627 457 256 257 rsa73_m 1280 469 737 700 690 662 798 751 645 811 840 rsa73_m 1290 809 925 1106 1057 1232 1447 1278 1272 1132 893 rsa73_m 1300 794 1038 1017 666 726 1153 1199 911 998 1128 rsa73_m 1310 1062 1138 1091 1171 997 855 811 883 947 1078 rsa73_m 1320 1224 1025 885 1006 889 574 551 606 806 713 rsa73_m 1330 542 272 556 647 418 503 494 487 437 426 rsa73_m 1340 414 387 381 453 264 280 181 194 207 310 rsa73_m 1350 412 999 rsa74_m 1016 518 692 530 584 rsa74_m 1020 473 498 521 448 529 396 460 405 484 304 rsa74_m 1030 423 411 379 409 431 375 402 475 322 350 rsa74_m 1040 392 363 439 384 495 381 375 423 422 386 rsa74_m 1050 375 354 401 365 163 290 224 264 255 324 rsa74_m 1060 405 417 441 480 451 414 305 391 439 342 rsa74_m 1070 268 304 285 332 266 290 304 246 189 306 rsa74_m 1080 318 396 381 465 431 377 401 435 351 412 rsa74_m 1090 387 351 374 424 383 439 383 450 383 417 rsa74_m 1100 375 365 431 427 465 262 327 316 346 356 rsa74_m 1110 350 439 383 404 375 369 295 305 299 279 rsa74_m 1120 331 302 309 394 435 540 533 555 673 575 rsa74_m 1130 519 491 494 602 539 578 533 495 532 598 rsa74_m 1140 560 560 538 581 535 581 643 446 629 631 rsa74_m 1150 698 543 508 670 618 513 564 632 546 582 rsa74_m 1160 634 626 536 613 585 579 493 466 465 482 rsa74_m 1170 484 423 471 548 411 401 480 454 502 585 rsa74_m 1180 581 502 486 477 445 423 489 384 353 461 rsa74_m 1190 421 374 373 378 388 364 324 310 326 315 rsa74_m 1200 357 375 366 445 377 460 446 463 409 435 rsa74_m 1210 414 438 398 344 369 332 373 323 379 370 rsa74_m 1220 342 332 400 310 342 382 364 339 304 312 rsa74_m 1230 348 335 369 307 354 364 321 432 386 434 rsa74_m 1240 483 530 400 488 436 465 484 554 509 565 rsa74_m 1250 529 546 564 548 557 664 430 549 405 512 rsa74_m 1260 499 450 476 459 438 508 467 388 562 496 rsa74_m 1270 464 417 402 382 463 455 346 434 366 385 rsa74_m 1280 363 330 388 364 438 477 420 351 441 397 rsa74_m 1290 373 434 454 345 426 511 489 498 490 438 rsa74_m 1300 433 484 397 405 423 480 439 413 479 428 rsa74_m 1310 999 smg04_m 918 2550 2190 smg04_m 920 1860 1260 1620 1710 1950 2040 2310 2280 2040 3060 smg04_m 930 2580 2910 2280 2400 1830 1950 1920 1350 1470 1200 smg04_m 940 1380 1050 1290 1050 1050 930 1290 1110 1110 1140 smg04_m 950 1170 1200 960 1170 990 840 1020 660 810 750 smg04_m 960 870 840 1020 900 960 1080 990 900 990 1050 smg04_m 970 1050 870 990 930 810 840 930 660 660 780 smg04_m 980 750 870 690 780 1050 990 900 720 810 870 smg04_m 990 810 870 780 780 750 660 630 780 660 750 smg04_m 1000 570 570 630 660 840 630 660 600 660 660 smg04_m 1010 570 630 690 690 570 570 450 600 420 600 smg04_m 1020 390 420 540 510 540 540 600 540 600 540 smg04_m 1030 660 660 495 480 540 495 540 495 540 480 smg04_m 1040 420 525 435 450 480 420 525 435 375 450 smg04_m 1050 450 390 390 300 300 270 300 300 240 300 smg04_m 1060 315 300 360 390 375 330 315 375 450 390 smg04_m 1070 300 330 300 360 999 sos01_m 636 2017 1688 2079 1319 sos01_m 640 1237 1221 1545 1359 1157 1566 1988 2357 2428 2295 sos01_m 650 1858 2203 2116 1941 2190 1733 1141 1112 1596 1799 sos01_m 660 1516 1629 1170 1383 1287 1497 1514 1732 1500 1401 sos01_m 670 1191 1277 1127 1031 1193 1036 949 1090 1187 1267 sos01_m 680 1265 1298 1416 1105 1270 1257 979 1013 1048 979 sos01_m 690 731 1124 810 819 937 1274 1307 1201 1321 1393 sos01_m 700 1082 1454 1213 1317 1373 1400 1340 791 1044 867 sos01_m 710 933 857 730 572 760 843 757 739 638 783 sos01_m 720 717 700 963 883 545 567 472 785 1079 852 sos01_m 730 974 1362 1115 981 1259 1256 1428 1580 1398 1422 sos01_m 740 1660 1491 1805 1189 1077 999 sos02_m 934 5250 3767 3985 3475 3881 3649 sos02_m 940 4233 3781 3230 3734 3548 3610 4079 2863 4144 3832 sos02_m 950 3568 3632 3387 3524 3042 3617 4053 3014 3360 4003 sos02_m 960 4247 3435 4199 3083 3063 3299 3118 2901 3532 3071 sos02_m 970 3415 2122 2486 2267 2832 3181 2741 2687 2748 2968 sos02_m 980 2576 2440 2629 2882 2721 3221 3292 3002 3233 2746 sos02_m 990 2513 2568 2386 2467 2408 2262 2456 2370 2107 2759 sos02_m 1000 2229 2180 1959 2177 1706 1987 1793 1408 1665 1861 sos02_m 1010 1823 1973 1773 2024 1307 1375 1315 1982 1874 2575 sos02_m 1020 1690 1865 1913 1941 2245 2114 2397 1951 2072 1637 sos02_m 1030 2002 2411 1940 2297 1974 2076 1927 1949 2063 2600 sos02_m 1040 1925 999 ssm015_m 514 1693 1907 1459 1585 1850 1544 ssm015_m 520 1707 2123 2087 3039 2700 2354 2677 2477 1730 1920 ssm015_m 530 1891 1197 1443 1492 1473 1550 1206 1148 1433 1206 ssm015_m 540 714 802 955 875 976 533 609 547 564 392 ssm015_m 550 458 449 507 531 796 897 935 1009 987 1058 ssm015_m 560 904 1014 783 1028 1080 1006 1162 1033 1428 1774 ssm015_m 570 1433 1436 1753 1351 1562 1060 1367 1378 2052 1360 ssm015_m 580 1184 973 1377 1171 842 857 917 1338 1832 1215 ssm015_m 590 1109 1257 860 822 776 708 668 831 693 566 ssm015_m 600 649 513 830 604 686 911 972 864 1125 1473 ssm015_m 610 810 1744 1081 1287 1530 1248 1308 1145 1437 1480 ssm015_m 620 913 1044 904 607 641 737 711 587 760 728 ssm015_m 630 845 705 717 646 586 465 478 606 634 621 ssm015_m 640 619 793 935 607 560 598 501 641 545 439 ssm015_m 650 516 411 367 225 240 302 319 289 286 296 ssm015_m 660 337 268 274 189 219 255 259 260 264 334 ssm015_m 670 340 356 348 351 412 436 463 442 341 339 ssm015_m 680 376 332 308 276 338 339 277 271 255 243 ssm015_m 690 221 250 288 263 245 342 254 208 154 133 ssm015_m 700 114 198 230 309 174 241 274 277 207 190 ssm015_m 710 259 172 178 152 149 344 279 243 332 297 ssm015_m 720 285 352 208 254 270 298 322 308 380 323 ssm015_m 730 366 419 447 433 308 322 351 274 196 196 ssm015_m 740 244 343 484 477 280 391 469 522 304 243 ssm015_m 750 161 148 127 115 87 135 229 106 229 221 ssm015_m 760 287 234 408 246 507 346 372 262 228 235 ssm015_m 770 335 282 127 191 205 999 ssm021_m 188 467 416 ssm021_m 190 422 458 525 500 554 503 796 593 712 784 ssm021_m 200 439 733 1317 968 894 917 933 442 502 704 ssm021_m 210 781 1392 1319 1034 1117 1138 1142 957 690 470 ssm021_m 220 397 582 869 419 694 698 814 618 557 1008 ssm021_m 230 831 747 792 901 1106 1030 1372 843 1044 1543 ssm021_m 240 1067 832 1243 1014 609 1222 1179 976 1171 1429 ssm021_m 250 1403 787 994 1036 833 589 587 740 448 496 ssm021_m 260 559 794 932 762 685 734 655 788 638 525 ssm021_m 270 531 554 598 611 533 740 785 841 1171 1196 ssm021_m 280 885 1002 1340 791 819 852 737 701 621 711 ssm021_m 290 494 819 783 473 630 956 621 897 817 585 ssm021_m 300 607 834 671 694 828 390 630 999 ssm022_m 346 746 649 684 352 ssm022_m 350 340 321 279 293 346 255 262 168 264 474 ssm022_m 360 502 552 665 882 861 725 733 713 696 590 ssm022_m 370 556 651 848 1009 851 684 492 587 671 789 ssm022_m 380 876 786 835 981 889 950 898 893 947 1005 ssm022_m 390 834 732 657 647 618 728 736 689 723 831 ssm022_m 400 1004 1122 1052 1102 1202 1079 953 952 950 781 ssm022_m 410 661 711 573 546 508 600 774 803 709 651 ssm022_m 420 730 792 716 725 712 617 521 576 851 968 ssm022_m 430 891 767 895 871 801 823 737 846 882 754 ssm022_m 440 831 944 1085 1126 935 792 722 735 678 649 ssm022_m 450 786 815 887 934 911 1079 1110 1042 1130 1155 ssm022_m 460 1290 1084 939 1105 1082 1136 1121 964 896 831 ssm022_m 470 861 935 933 1028 867 761 714 735 628 753 ssm022_m 480 847 789 479 540 592 652 444 495 754 849 ssm022_m 490 420 460 458 487 561 433 486 550 613 588 ssm022_m 500 545 999 ssm034_m 144 1507 1247 907 1236 931 1115 ssm034_m 150 1035 1454 837 1109 1227 742 756 777 956 878 ssm034_m 160 608 593 870 1263 1006 1072 1197 1527 1353 1112 ssm034_m 170 987 1006 471 480 449 708 1083 870 870 580 ssm034_m 180 737 1143 1340 1137 994 915 956 806 710 985 ssm034_m 190 823 1102 1236 1170 1031 1169 1332 1256 1333 1202 ssm034_m 200 696 816 1236 850 683 491 365 169 241 590 ssm034_m 210 482 811 863 894 903 914 749 666 438 360 ssm034_m 220 396 488 854 595 655 592 827 704 643 706 ssm034_m 230 731 784 564 554 887 881 904 892 831 1117 ssm034_m 240 1244 932 908 990 868 1013 1008 748 721 872 ssm034_m 250 769 431 627 578 379 384 427 570 247 317 ssm034_m 260 281 378 474 477 478 390 270 398 281 291 ssm034_m 270 176 204 304 361 364 478 598 738 809 710 ssm034_m 280 715 753 888 461 452 396 573 539 447 392 ssm034_m 290 370 442 529 452 453 693 616 583 360 295 ssm034_m 300 404 451 433 255 224 201 247 247 331 238 ssm034_m 310 417 400 417 438 610 416 281 445 341 286 ssm034_m 320 371 370 416 357 438 999 ssm035_m 474 1686 1835 2608 2904 2391 2742 ssm035_m 480 2464 2641 1970 2079 2203 2551 2364 2384 2381 2158 ssm035_m 490 1851 2345 1971 2502 3124 2299 3133 2940 2544 1811 ssm035_m 500 2291 1778 1733 2242 1801 1902 999 ssm036_m 379 2053 ssm036_m 380 1994 1337 1543 1651 1351 1620 1440 1309 1279 1366 ssm036_m 390 1268 1284 1029 733 825 960 667 878 875 871 ssm036_m 400 1416 1328 1534 1509 1875 1433 1325 1422 1525 1533 ssm036_m 410 934 1295 1321 1374 1099 1047 1402 1440 1234 1096 ssm036_m 420 1153 1556 1418 1547 1666 1478 1124 853 1114 1509 ssm036_m 430 1610 935 1113 1074 1016 814 656 1085 1077 839 ssm036_m 440 1092 1247 1823 1764 1532 1074 739 1169 774 620 ssm036_m 450 898 856 928 1007 1125 1073 1182 838 918 1059 ssm036_m 460 1030 915 618 1052 917 922 1097 1069 934 953 ssm036_m 470 920 984 797 1073 740 670 734 689 575 534 ssm036_m 480 584 634 471 336 412 497 268 284 370 388 ssm036_m 490 349 306 373 526 568 387 565 700 825 738 ssm036_m 500 848 688 726 1397 1133 1591 999 ssm037_m 427 970 1092 1131 ssm037_m 430 1404 924 1113 1015 701 679 685 802 923 1009 ssm037_m 440 1273 1506 1669 1523 1522 1114 830 1018 727 544 ssm037_m 450 942 1176 1562 1255 1244 1141 974 768 754 947 ssm037_m 460 1050 812 747 925 959 995 1073 876 871 820 ssm037_m 470 750 813 740 781 707 767 871 915 597 636 ssm037_m 480 771 730 370 293 323 452 306 290 350 391 ssm037_m 490 391 325 285 444 500 458 606 798 901 928 ssm037_m 500 976 762 708 948 999 ssm040km 453 2241 2124 2109 2055 1947 2677 1839 ssm040km 460 2451 2243 2236 2134 2057 1709 1471 1466 1617 1227 ssm040km 470 1400 1470 1245 1895 1607 1771 1851 1452 856 1078 ssm040km 480 1178 1250 954 1117 1240 1596 1164 1232 1368 1274 ssm040km 490 1152 1153 1200 1416 1941 1512 2002 1867 1604 1329 ssm040km 500 1599 1310 1378 1719 1319 1356 999 ssm042_m 98 1059 1187 ssm042_m 100 1080 1097 1264 1295 1348 1144 769 1154 1212 936 ssm042_m 110 1038 1277 1466 1131 1448 1113 1063 1198 1005 1392 ssm042_m 120 1100 967 953 1086 997 1058 867 1055 1126 1157 ssm042_m 130 1073 1202 1282 1467 1915 1937 1403 2138 2000 1657 ssm042_m 140 1503 1847 2093 2295 1399 1350 1124 1262 1034 960 ssm042_m 150 918 1558 1301 1498 1456 925 886 1048 1010 925 ssm042_m 160 819 883 884 1035 786 925 1048 1332 1592 1615 ssm042_m 170 1632 1974 999 ssm043_m 438 915 761 ssm043_m 440 576 662 1060 1325 1407 1087 1025 1046 867 910 ssm043_m 450 1333 1377 1303 1149 1167 1324 1507 1440 1747 1688 ssm043_m 460 1947 2324 2290 2619 2039 2092 2504 2453 2644 2533 ssm043_m 470 2677 2840 2652 2774 2883 3107 2767 2689 2547 2687 ssm043_m 480 2916 2695 1940 2214 2444 2295 2032 2435 2106 2057 ssm043_m 490 1851 1971 1722 2414 2938 2416 3117 2966 2556 2143 ssm043_m 500 2465 2026 2194 2515 2021 2445 999 ssm044_m 323 586 706 1278 1245 1138 1797 1426 ssm044_m 330 2005 1411 1825 1174 1452 1540 1149 430 499 769 ssm044_m 340 749 929 1043 1088 1599 1640 2448 2648 2132 1551 ssm044_m 350 2248 2223 1608 1589 1173 1473 1072 1102 618 734 ssm044_m 360 920 1260 1175 1310 1463 1155 1325 1599 1867 1652 ssm044_m 370 1361 1221 1161 1828 1406 2126 1299 1900 2608 2863 ssm044_m 380 2932 2031 2078 2038 1904 1983 1683 1976 2060 2243 ssm044_m 390 1726 1709 1442 1491 1570 1848 1954 2043 1543 1552 ssm044_m 400 2154 2222 1855 1714 2112 1964 1973 2055 2103 1871 ssm044_m 410 1529 1572 1672 1358 1129 1309 1566 1613 1452 1163 ssm044_m 420 1324 1225 1126 1322 1380 1110 923 945 1361 1579 ssm044_m 430 1743 974 1519 1289 1243 1281 962 1221 1519 1398 ssm044_m 440 1349 1556 1959 1791 1681 1582 1266 1336 1035 760 ssm044_m 450 1069 1131 1394 1450 1290 1443 1567 1327 1143 1290 ssm044_m 460 1292 1022 808 1153 1180 1054 1006 968 819 940 ssm044_m 470 916 1026 899 1231 998 1039 988 792 603 613 ssm044_m 480 767 716 497 525 675 929 559 655 737 813 ssm044_m 490 641 678 622 824 1139 773 1085 1026 941 1063 ssm044_m 500 1170 1144 881 1490 1314 1808 999 ssm045_m 453 676 612 1085 1382 1278 1477 898 ssm045_m 460 1282 1783 1550 1867 1950 1565 1999 1897 1924 1731 ssm045_m 470 2053 2244 1871 2643 2630 2624 2854 2151 1397 1718 ssm045_m 480 3081 2812 1444 2066 1897 2280 1495 2100 2002 3159 ssm045_m 490 2925 2504 2197 2206 2622 2427 2636 2439 2359 2320 ssm045_m 500 2316 2539 2319 3353 2343 2495 999 ssm057_m 637 898 1142 1094 ssm057_m 640 1442 1330 1529 1189 1003 1573 1341 1545 1178 1562 ssm057_m 650 1691 1709 1365 1076 757 714 654 936 1016 1042 ssm057_m 660 1155 1367 927 1032 1141 1485 1628 1384 1369 1124 ssm057_m 670 1020 1076 1181 1585 1306 1560 1603 2077 1633 1603 ssm057_m 680 1338 1321 1148 1076 1215 1078 884 1138 1323 1068 ssm057_m 690 669 1009 1321 1288 1184 1264 992 802 830 862 ssm057_m 700 827 917 833 1003 1000 1529 1345 823 1231 1146 ssm057_m 710 1229 1058 674 640 610 702 1010 1284 1162 1296 ssm057_m 720 873 463 384 531 475 596 634 725 869 764 ssm057_m 730 795 1027 1069 839 1157 1256 1032 1201 978 1025 ssm057_m 740 1352 1655 1566 1153 999 ssm087_m 547 847 647 826 ssm087_m 550 843 1135 795 778 1035 485 905 1277 927 417 ssm087_m 560 351 369 197 301 475 854 909 610 679 627 ssm087_m 570 665 632 570 478 685 615 615 550 675 453 ssm087_m 580 383 496 864 755 546 642 593 776 740 533 ssm087_m 590 669 612 507 380 392 454 515 577 546 342 ssm087_m 600 384 399 537 421 486 435 364 424 459 538 ssm087_m 610 442 562 515 535 641 435 406 395 484 585 ssm087_m 620 402 384 345 143 195 220 209 234 312 336 ssm087_m 630 304 212 167 229 203 213 177 254 224 233 ssm087_m 640 299 355 487 369 411 500 416 493 400 367 ssm087_m 650 349 450 464 249 250 334 355 301 300 280 ssm087_m 660 275 231 268 228 185 229 305 289 302 384 ssm087_m 670 371 418 396 373 477 599 559 654 564 481 ssm087_m 680 448 397 364 477 661 716 466 438 335 403 ssm087_m 690 271 357 401 476 458 539 496 349 365 365 ssm087_m 700 329 446 641 557 483 507 568 414 526 398 ssm087_m 710 436 396 263 257 201 415 476 581 658 733 ssm087_m 720 692 468 476 562 861 775 690 765 1027 635 ssm087_m 730 743 984 703 586 646 680 658 609 383 424 ssm087_m 740 564 658 892 729 580 784 766 912 588 400 ssm087_m 750 400 304 302 329 311 335 505 403 526 893 ssm087_m 760 845 912 890 963 896 931 926 633 781 1169 ssm087_m 770 1072 729 646 469 480 502 246 381 421 289 ssm087_m 780 255 257 322 261 165 298 350 318 348 999 ssm088_m 578 588 412 ssm088_m 580 342 346 405 479 414 315 272 266 257 277 ssm088_m 590 280 253 264 198 127 169 164 184 172 174 ssm088_m 600 147 112 138 154 193 137 155 115 73 160 ssm088_m 610 178 141 118 168 150 139 130 102 66 51 ssm088_m 620 70 67 68 63 50 54 55 76 83 77 ssm088_m 630 71 50 68 59 55 50 37 73 69 51 ssm088_m 640 90 102 105 83 136 187 137 159 113 143 ssm088_m 650 146 206 230 166 179 177 176 180 177 182 ssm088_m 660 172 157 134 163 124 158 226 218 195 223 ssm088_m 670 210 206 200 249 302 373 231 268 235 210 ssm088_m 680 251 303 313 386 471 444 321 482 325 375 ssm088_m 690 334 394 340 360 300 359 507 463 700 512 ssm088_m 700 379 612 607 538 569 629 659 551 665 499 ssm088_m 710 486 354 298 326 405 533 678 745 698 758 ssm088_m 720 554 499 561 585 656 610 718 803 947 665 ssm088_m 730 651 899 740 450 575 603 483 387 336 374 ssm088_m 740 564 604 678 546 456 625 502 467 332 185 ssm088_m 750 146 131 102 112 139 149 385 286 409 721 ssm088_m 760 837 782 713 879 757 999 ssm121_m 368 847 832 ssm121_m 370 1079 1144 920 996 773 1165 580 686 820 991 ssm121_m 380 1940 1148 1412 1560 1223 1116 1038 803 924 1087 ssm121_m 390 913 963 776 612 719 447 542 400 324 324 ssm121_m 400 643 760 649 906 1486 1124 1037 1144 1287 1303 ssm121_m 410 1140 1123 1230 983 661 647 819 650 640 457 ssm121_m 420 731 893 860 820 966 725 537 485 870 953 ssm121_m 430 912 587 705 731 809 659 863 871 781 770 ssm121_m 440 750 751 1078 1308 888 717 553 962 564 386 ssm121_m 450 478 685 889 626 564 434 504 342 386 486 ssm121_m 460 586 467 450 562 535 429 526 460 359 477 ssm121_m 470 368 279 369 420 259 317 305 309 257 231 ssm121_m 480 277 221 138 149 165 164 77 120 88 89 ssm121_m 490 97 81 82 999 ssm123_m 262 277 175 135 100 126 184 187 177 ssm123_m 270 221 188 169 181 192 162 170 196 181 165 ssm123_m 280 154 165 165 177 245 265 219 227 255 269 ssm123_m 290 196 238 259 212 192 200 179 201 185 203 ssm123_m 300 255 279 240 341 285 334 514 577 407 521 ssm123_m 310 506 472 390 444 655 358 361 331 322 259 ssm123_m 320 221 237 257 297 388 252 157 130 237 236 ssm123_m 330 346 328 301 312 356 423 270 211 248 328 ssm123_m 340 237 279 289 291 390 489 561 630 527 399 ssm123_m 350 525 509 435 362 562 462 307 286 274 287 ssm123_m 360 386 476 542 717 715 606 698 659 619 699 ssm123_m 370 727 812 607 625 465 640 235 535 585 768 ssm123_m 380 835 532 796 863 732 862 894 738 712 709 ssm123_m 390 684 519 356 431 424 814 394 450 309 286 ssm123_m 400 544 391 431 491 554 493 285 375 375 411 ssm123_m 410 282 427 999 ssm124_m 440 1584 1926 3309 2587 2620 2365 2482 1820 1122 1349 ssm124_m 450 1993 2102 2374 1982 1332 1972 1981 1453 1568 1224 ssm124_m 460 1444 1168 811 1027 953 1075 968 992 885 708 ssm124_m 470 816 752 791 1077 896 1038 1020 755 440 618 ssm124_m 480 651 670 427 552 723 862 656 755 720 672 ssm124_m 490 549 509 518 747 946 815 1067 1055 1056 857 ssm124_m 500 758 735 661 934 819 875 999 ssm125_m -85 1623 2952 2050 2453 2008 ssm125_m -80 1842 1700 2114 2060 1659 1680 1264 1344 1404 1366 ssm125_m -70 2370 2090 1866 2155 1652 1554 1394 1947 2809 2948 ssm125_m -60 3922 3348 3289 3041 2889 1930 1557 1630 1347 1256 ssm125_m -50 1733 1493 1218 1458 1291 1244 1181 1017 811 661 ssm125_m -40 432 235 311 179 301 298 421 672 823 759 ssm125_m -30 746 921 932 1032 1367 1259 1842 1821 1835 1297 ssm125_m -20 1074 1083 847 784 1125 1234 929 831 1053 1211 ssm125_m -10 1324 1227 1119 1056 788 803 1064 663 1119 1598 ssm125_m 0 1536 1328 1554 1398 1721 1599 1515 1769 1912 1227 ssm125_m 10 1212 1061 1082 1203 1714 2327 1203 2123 1494 1951 ssm125_m 20 1349 1026 1059 1052 772 1050 1135 1188 1095 1306 ssm125_m 30 1003 824 964 1498 2476 2505 2220 1919 2163 2412 ssm125_m 40 2025 1270 1830 1554 1621 1690 1507 1367 1697 1551 ssm125_m 50 1559 1309 1519 1151 1017 1058 742 647 727 894 ssm125_m 60 1327 1182 1161 1287 1695 1119 729 1120 1004 1112 ssm125_m 70 939 1071 933 965 999 ssm211_m 355 335 423 250 319 534 ssm211_m 360 523 411 567 854 718 636 710 838 750 429 ssm211_m 370 386 510 708 897 600 525 353 345 434 554 ssm211_m 380 631 564 598 840 655 639 519 657 616 609 ssm211_m 390 587 541 577 627 474 532 494 444 491 500 ssm211_m 400 706 834 750 746 918 809 751 753 760 643 ssm211_m 410 538 616 444 481 384 490 608 673 627 615 ssm211_m 420 679 721 708 757 830 594 523 447 664 808 ssm211_m 430 760 593 741 739 664 725 646 767 901 731 ssm211_m 440 724 906 1066 1052 845 770 723 729 638 571 ssm211_m 450 838 738 850 933 906 1122 1117 918 942 958 ssm211_m 460 1135 1008 804 899 886 1027 1200 1029 864 769 ssm211_m 470 793 885 798 1051 794 769 732 763 508 511 ssm211_m 480 647 733 456 503 639 701 391 437 514 715 ssm211_m 490 510 554 574 611 708 523 690 775 850 563 ssm211_m 500 999 ssm303_m 405 583 745 961 1055 959 ssm303_m 410 857 887 642 403 456 445 482 433 460 458 ssm303_m 420 601 474 488 622 698 604 519 482 871 888 ssm303_m 430 629 447 588 529 420 395 391 587 615 455 ssm303_m 440 481 676 722 778 692 723 559 766 567 418 ssm303_m 450 546 558 782 719 598 726 617 650 628 621 ssm303_m 460 623 587 518 597 493 799 697 671 861 824 ssm303_m 470 816 979 925 1160 923 1156 1091 945 609 749 ssm303_m 480 916 972 547 809 1120 1168 768 790 877 776 ssm303_m 490 764 811 650 702 889 693 884 995 817 847 ssm303_m 500 722 689 699 1002 908 725 999 ssm304_m 456 980 1065 1115 1001 ssm304_m 460 1172 1360 1303 1568 1442 1427 1412 1377 1946 1489 ssm304_m 470 2491 2271 1905 2406 1960 1779 1796 1685 1089 1306 ssm304_m 480 1894 1513 1022 1238 1556 1673 1276 1620 1419 1455 ssm304_m 490 1246 1609 1194 1533 2047 1422 2025 1957 1755 1616 ssm304_m 500 1707 1509 1446 2437 2069 2222 999 ssm308_m 434 1512 1641 1847 1987 2286 2235 ssm308_m 440 2183 2216 3052 1909 2012 2226 1971 1497 1769 1166 ssm308_m 450 1285 1552 1754 1736 1488 1942 1773 1441 1479 1258 ssm308_m 460 1336 1305 1090 1250 1196 1175 1135 1072 950 811 ssm308_m 470 862 937 1014 1255 1076 1091 1153 786 513 552 ssm308_m 480 576 664 569 702 774 639 452 524 597 652 ssm308_m 490 622 541 404 515 605 526 475 468 436 399 ssm308_m 500 437 430 391 509 999 ssm311_m 192 1089 793 678 1155 968 832 1037 1001 ssm311_m 200 710 558 974 919 746 432 124 76 128 254 ssm311_m 210 553 527 534 748 845 931 771 770 759 683 ssm311_m 220 759 638 701 830 507 683 717 1233 1261 860 ssm311_m 230 913 636 774 649 869 1132 1222 1180 1120 1291 ssm311_m 240 1139 758 931 726 615 920 830 677 770 1331 ssm311_m 250 1228 577 838 690 552 547 572 1240 999 ssm315_m 359 649 ssm315_m 360 910 1265 1445 1203 1069 813 802 663 509 492 ssm315_m 370 604 631 831 1358 1023 1116 659 1004 1167 1447 ssm315_m 380 1610 1028 1165 1242 1026 1134 1109 1088 1011 912 ssm315_m 390 982 1094 810 509 555 619 457 621 567 582 ssm315_m 400 1008 1040 1207 1365 1787 1348 1171 1226 1341 1420 ssm315_m 410 861 1105 1212 1098 997 705 1126 1117 851 767 ssm315_m 420 934 1230 1157 1257 1322 1232 1011 778 986 1158 ssm315_m 430 1201 864 1096 1127 942 686 606 960 921 726 ssm315_m 440 851 942 1389 1300 968 774 645 963 590 451 ssm315_m 450 660 600 736 659 637 746 863 612 681 803 ssm315_m 460 862 709 503 799 670 678 884 808 677 735 ssm315_m 470 742 826 822 975 697 868 1023 948 748 798 ssm315_m 480 782 846 562 347 414 507 325 277 406 446 ssm315_m 490 359 339 349 566 592 421 657 688 933 807 ssm315_m 500 933 762 878 1181 1029 812 999 ssm317_m 466 1462 1838 1901 2264 ssm317_m 470 2673 2737 2539 2784 2339 2485 2204 2029 1330 1969 ssm317_m 480 2160 1988 1464 1942 2417 2516 2255 2477 2342 2130 ssm317_m 490 1652 1988 1945 2469 3032 2275 3232 3364 2949 2277 ssm317_m 500 2441 1845 1909 2365 1929 2266 999 ssm322_m 199 1092 ssm322_m 200 1036 953 669 869 873 561 228 508 470 812 ssm322_m 210 689 853 837 1067 1300 748 946 788 845 897 ssm322_m 220 738 823 935 732 949 812 1484 1092 855 815 ssm322_m 230 579 690 621 744 990 1062 821 711 722 848 ssm322_m 240 727 663 966 873 756 885 1038 734 898 686 ssm322_m 250 549 348 497 427 346 392 368 467 305 231 ssm322_m 260 258 274 400 483 548 382 308 270 230 200 ssm322_m 270 166 203 311 390 453 515 569 590 670 619 ssm322_m 280 615 663 653 404 495 513 649 509 541 549 ssm322_m 290 495 582 940 835 864 867 846 798 600 524 ssm322_m 300 527 548 419 400 421 574 617 909 714 631 ssm322_m 310 648 720 681 700 916 853 748 881 700 687 ssm322_m 320 711 633 544 557 736 623 365 335 542 434 ssm322_m 330 537 659 492 419 575 457 335 277 247 316 ssm322_m 340 235 334 373 354 397 587 560 591 484 342 ssm322_m 350 458 521 461 433 999 ssm324_m 142 863 1429 789 644 959 1314 929 1158 ssm324_m 150 1274 1858 1046 955 1058 757 693 703 801 583 ssm324_m 160 620 727 788 964 877 799 907 881 920 837 ssm324_m 170 708 755 386 418 375 601 767 855 716 573 ssm324_m 180 901 1086 1162 873 795 919 904 775 786 824 ssm324_m 190 725 829 1234 932 976 1030 1142 1208 1083 971 ssm324_m 200 627 643 920 686 615 464 272 198 238 555 ssm324_m 210 533 777 816 905 1003 1123 839 870 597 486 ssm324_m 220 495 549 927 652 775 768 961 863 742 872 ssm324_m 230 678 818 583 648 941 1012 1007 1012 979 1360 ssm324_m 240 1177 851 1011 1130 895 1271 1063 775 816 863 ssm324_m 250 661 433 632 478 339 419 432 530 305 319 ssm324_m 260 285 364 461 450 478 381 326 434 400 322 ssm324_m 270 233 180 258 330 305 422 553 704 846 813 ssm324_m 280 796 893 986 711 556 507 635 627 602 573 ssm324_m 290 479 558 718 657 707 989 901 843 592 548 ssm324_m 300 578 571 447 344 282 246 271 348 404 362 ssm324_m 310 539 473 457 472 704 516 415 614 505 527 ssm324_m 320 499 559 541 403 999 ssm351_m 257 273 205 226 ssm351_m 260 181 272 351 259 218 135 140 223 245 213 ssm351_m 270 285 278 248 233 300 377 300 432 609 454 ssm351_m 280 409 526 497 267 243 306 442 375 390 445 ssm351_m 290 302 486 588 495 519 447 609 587 500 528 ssm351_m 300 393 428 309 343 598 867 856 780 503 530 ssm351_m 310 607 649 624 540 723 474 437 448 436 499 ssm351_m 320 498 413 406 427 613 414 356 321 437 407 ssm351_m 330 530 445 353 234 301 231 160 149 217 250 ssm351_m 340 348 354 386 301 376 409 473 453 330 248 ssm351_m 350 268 266 236 252 256 246 191 204 166 182 ssm351_m 360 252 251 298 319 334 278 315 242 203 175 ssm351_m 370 155 127 144 210 200 257 111 202 221 263 ssm351_m 380 376 272 192 244 188 223 212 157 194 154 ssm351_m 390 163 172 140 123 93 83 94 75 20 69 ssm351_m 400 108 129 166 197 266 222 285 287 316 304 ssm351_m 410 240 177 161 168 156 999 ssm353_m 473 1465 1213 466 389 94 391 914 ssm353_m 480 1181 1504 1033 1340 1349 1973 1303 1300 1368 1071 ssm353_m 490 982 1168 1163 1374 1942 1431 2316 1766 1671 1316 ssm353_m 500 1192 1199 941 1423 1085 1254 999 ssm354_m 177 823 926 1039 ssm354_m 180 1411 1187 1131 801 1107 1199 1022 441 716 727 ssm354_m 190 1046 1303 1211 881 1043 1500 1220 1139 870 740 ssm354_m 200 579 707 912 614 528 386 291 208 327 751 ssm354_m 210 703 813 781 775 789 738 641 629 553 485 ssm354_m 220 547 605 903 561 661 662 956 812 698 788 ssm354_m 230 530 583 518 590 858 998 920 804 898 1066 ssm354_m 240 883 640 818 799 711 883 825 682 717 742 ssm354_m 250 675 302 548 461 303 398 393 533 311 260 ssm354_m 260 219 288 414 471 553 477 426 378 303 282 ssm354_m 270 267 237 327 428 503 785 858 869 1039 858 ssm354_m 280 860 911 1120 645 550 480 567 515 531 575 ssm354_m 290 418 493 808 544 657 784 834 689 552 554 ssm354_m 300 494 481 365 390 359 404 443 509 485 472 ssm354_m 310 524 545 479 514 839 644 627 685 679 639 ssm354_m 320 738 681 603 643 1031 858 446 475 605 483 ssm354_m 330 689 532 531 521 651 555 401 329 372 523 ssm354_m 340 452 472 365 346 324 999 ssm355_m 462 985 1839 1622 1358 1847 1294 1898 1839 ssm355_m 470 2478 2025 1806 2007 1571 1371 1249 897 716 1230 ssm355_m 480 1215 1616 1589 1902 1984 2180 1532 1608 1724 1412 ssm355_m 490 1205 1469 1680 2062 2115 1718 2826 2244 2193 1613 ssm355_m 500 1943 1704 1577 2330 2248 2384 999 ssm358_m 362 173 246 200 209 192 188 245 214 ssm358_m 370 231 193 217 275 249 248 205 302 272 245 ssm358_m 380 250 177 163 156 160 154 114 115 182 111 ssm358_m 390 98 107 93 96 118 150 92 59 77 91 ssm358_m 400 135 152 131 137 121 80 75 59 95 65 ssm358_m 410 57 54 50 84 127 157 114 127 172 271 ssm358_m 420 290 245 291 401 330 288 327 361 369 325 ssm358_m 430 247 230 249 373 346 426 426 515 548 535 ssm358_m 440 413 616 679 679 740 790 610 1032 808 641 ssm358_m 450 986 1003 1102 1068 990 1308 1067 916 1131 1014 ssm358_m 460 1554 1121 832 947 742 679 810 686 663 727 ssm358_m 470 756 889 917 968 1175 1602 1564 1424 719 1115 ssm358_m 480 1715 1426 586 701 764 879 475 539 625 775 ssm358_m 490 766 648 592 716 932 829 1141 1130 808 718 ssm358_m 500 1082 932 660 1355 1017 986 999 ssm398_m 444 260 297 185 370 334 178 ssm398_m 450 273 375 703 827 621 717 885 1143 1039 693 ssm398_m 460 882 1500 1122 2270 1267 1777 2225 1917 1865 1596 ssm398_m 470 2525 2648 2070 2881 2400 2175 1917 1788 1422 1929 ssm398_m 480 2294 2001 1653 1847 2140 2169 1724 2086 1965 1964 ssm398_m 490 1337 1214 1123 1468 1465 1413 2264 2316 2234 1494 ssm398_m 500 1332 1340 1044 1651 1468 1617 999 ssm401_m 457 1961 1822 1712 ssm401_m 460 1955 2330 2331 2333 1984 1636 1319 1432 1557 1765 ssm401_m 470 2058 2771 2438 2746 2712 2874 2117 2030 1177 1683 ssm401_m 480 1917 2749 2133 2637 2704 2909 2820 3115 2627 2330 ssm401_m 490 2086 2105 2013 2080 2688 2717 3083 2618 2410 2424 ssm401_m 500 2156 2544 2170 2485 1981 2632 1757 1298 1423 2250 ssm401_m 510 2510 2028 1740 1594 1466 1774 1736 1551 1526 1524 ssm401_m 520 1567 1774 2029 2116 2226 2023 1995 2360 1436 1475 ssm401_m 530 1357 1055 1359 1666 1726 1691 1674 988 832 640 ssm401_m 540 448 563 715 736 757 436 546 515 481 279 ssm401_m 550 317 259 431 357 490 588 686 717 1112 883 ssm401_m 560 1055 1032 865 999 ssm433_m 438 2639 2762 ssm433_m 440 2885 2431 2531 2368 2300 2106 1642 2393 2210 1156 ssm433_m 450 1658 1633 1793 1601 1717 1760 1796 871 1648 1720 ssm433_m 460 1709 1288 1389 1403 1112 1343 1386 1421 1258 1517 ssm433_m 470 1074 1153 1357 1290 1334 1168 1753 1620 1223 1552 ssm433_m 480 937 980 789 459 678 708 351 388 639 525 ssm433_m 490 723 753 1098 1385 999 tah12_m 169 1771 tah12_m 170 2116 2889 3351 2789 2712 2440 2391 2263 2313 1793 tah12_m 180 2356 2221 2328 2586 3123 2827 2130 1737 1840 2183 tah12_m 190 2322 2321 2056 2025 2094 2250 2222 2400 1984 2532 tah12_m 200 2205 2309 2092 2035 1860 1687 1762 1626 1762 2194 tah12_m 210 1797 1919 2690 2292 1943 2005 2164 1920 1654 1623 tah12_m 220 1675 1310 1620 1522 1497 1672 1982 1678 1686 1783 tah12_m 230 1545 1982 1735 2128 2201 2610 2154 1727 1405 1735 tah12_m 240 1912 1614 1599 1511 1434 1773 1840 1665 1274 1213 tah12_m 250 1051 762 894 1049 1344 1446 1368 1357 1071 1075 tah12_m 260 784 1018 1061 913 902 837 839 949 789 744 tah12_m 270 994 1084 1014 968 1032 990 1450 1067 803 913 tah12_m 280 727 989 1154 1025 941 955 853 831 766 927 tah12_m 290 820 914 1174 838 850 819 922 870 748 635 tah12_m 300 730 744 630 657 764 598 652 649 656 639 tah12_m 310 777 755 818 694 905 767 657 706 673 662 tah12_m 320 589 651 640 665 842 698 577 515 677 563 tah12_m 330 622 677 709 541 562 524 642 648 585 535 tah12_m 340 531 625 562 527 541 551 588 665 595 433 tah12_m 350 413 341 422 350 366 422 362 355 326 330 tah12_m 360 386 387 461 479 425 390 469 463 416 351 tah12_m 370 353 416 344 360 354 399 252 418 338 406 tah12_m 380 430 363 368 321 312 323 336 332 322 306 tah12_m 390 305 327 318 286 354 381 296 318 251 317 tah12_m 400 396 332 312 344 372 393 371 393 353 399 tah12_m 410 357 352 325 279 262 270 316 344 373 378 tah12_m 420 428 356 308 356 343 329 330 310 405 362 tah12_m 430 426 300 285 335 330 338 332 443 492 422 tah12_m 440 465 514 466 485 446 373 403 492 397 399 tah12_m 450 508 393 339 338 314 287 276 314 320 332 tah12_m 460 453 377 333 384 347 367 382 402 448 424 tah12_m 470 421 445 450 496 368 403 364 333 278 267 tah12_m 480 285 227 123 155 135 171 146 191 166 209 tah12_m 490 174 266 361 280 320 235 290 340 316 370 tah12_m 500 362 294 295 375 343 349 463 443 384 468 tah12_m 510 481 441 473 479 464 445 391 521 554 467 tah12_m 520 451 499 456 480 510 461 481 529 449 514 tah12_m 530 500 410 398 434 343 309 314 327 339 272 tah12_m 540 223 230 323 290 321 212 171 999 tah13_m 213 1825 2346 1239 1865 2451 2465 1531 tah13_m 220 1885 1523 1196 1236 1001 1059 1670 1068 1353 1339 tah13_m 230 1161 1529 1209 1656 1422 1846 1817 1479 1293 1471 tah13_m 240 1585 1509 1163 1109 1035 1659 1700 1311 1113 1108 tah13_m 250 960 590 703 749 893 940 853 1061 933 753 tah13_m 260 597 895 859 776 697 681 598 762 615 604 tah13_m 270 581 581 589 487 512 629 623 441 439 469 tah13_m 280 490 672 812 811 801 722 555 502 642 790 tah13_m 290 648 663 787 547 545 514 600 573 514 486 tah13_m 300 477 498 499 503 551 459 460 504 446 488 tah13_m 310 546 508 519 419 574 551 421 502 440 441 tah13_m 320 472 458 471 458 586 479 445 381 477 449 tah13_m 330 481 493 577 452 465 414 539 482 412 374 tah13_m 340 372 491 455 419 456 474 519 565 467 301 tah13_m 350 271 224 279 239 274 272 251 290 249 248 tah13_m 360 344 345 390 335 330 265 333 293 302 255 tah13_m 370 250 251 257 251 293 308 181 331 273 320 tah13_m 380 317 230 200 221 218 236 244 231 241 251 tah13_m 390 220 232 263 332 265 264 221 231 209 265 tah13_m 400 301 250 236 198 265 307 310 301 293 283 tah13_m 410 271 276 247 197 206 158 251 212 260 254 tah13_m 420 253 247 195 245 260 276 225 257 236 263 tah13_m 430 269 233 210 208 246 223 227 279 296 280 tah13_m 440 270 354 368 352 326 241 299 349 351 294 tah13_m 450 310 280 217 207 214 237 249 243 230 247 tah13_m 460 337 281 223 292 249 253 159 220 280 250 tah13_m 470 240 215 228 256 202 200 222 200 165 192 tah13_m 480 999 tah21_m -36 1654 2047 1546 2330 2953 3410 tah21_m -30 3068 2204 1868 1462 2791 1585 2171 2046 1999 1851 tah21_m -20 2108 2187 1334 1562 1201 1328 1058 1214 917 1197 tah21_m -10 1052 1233 1230 1492 1392 1541 1291 1162 1393 1339 tah21_m 0 1461 1109 845 1205 1479 1434 1298 1371 1314 1137 tah21_m 10 1151 1083 1097 962 1373 1322 1018 1620 1236 1184 tah21_m 20 937 872 963 1057 1003 1153 1119 1486 1311 998 tah21_m 30 1362 1272 1125 1242 1351 1260 1111 1274 1488 1394 tah21_m 40 1409 1304 1183 1106 1086 1165 1071 1035 1063 833 tah21_m 50 936 768 937 877 868 957 797 820 953 825 tah21_m 60 816 879 926 1032 972 1062 1054 914 783 697 tah21_m 70 517 455 398 303 284 199 279 203 219 248 tah21_m 80 283 258 423 376 308 391 465 464 445 438 tah21_m 90 346 420 385 346 283 402 391 520 475 431 tah21_m 100 487 641 624 612 528 685 518 576 597 489 tah21_m 110 652 714 622 571 799 607 635 725 581 881 tah21_m 120 695 769 944 750 587 742 756 634 599 811 tah21_m 130 572 821 743 477 619 698 570 590 500 758 tah21_m 140 764 768 694 757 652 726 610 631 504 570 tah21_m 150 471 521 434 390 544 483 376 443 352 320 tah21_m 160 391 400 230 424 386 403 300 429 268 478 tah21_m 170 507 410 361 581 420 999 tah22_m -64 562 718 988 1220 tah22_m -60 1625 1701 1306 1680 1431 1175 975 1470 1235 815 tah22_m -50 908 1018 766 893 917 772 763 1174 595 681 tah22_m -40 616 238 120 183 252 393 480 671 700 437 tah22_m -30 383 328 277 271 297 282 314 409 421 370 tah22_m -20 472 473 313 235 222 288 323 477 393 342 tah22_m -10 416 462 420 367 347 397 361 444 449 516 tah22_m 0 559 511 394 395 613 633 549 539 500 484 tah22_m 10 531 433 387 386 508 544 455 606 480 399 tah22_m 20 339 326 248 211 163 200 192 287 205 160 tah22_m 30 204 201 225 227 284 322 475 454 477 459 tah22_m 40 513 488 533 541 575 479 394 376 360 324 tah22_m 50 353 333 320 344 385 412 451 500 467 386 tah22_m 60 368 361 414 403 343 412 336 365 392 337 tah22_m 70 274 381 539 365 330 254 197 194 220 128 tah22_m 80 132 149 193 207 123 143 155 169 160 177 tah22_m 90 212 169 152 135 95 154 112 139 999 tah24_m -51 1256 tah24_m -50 1669 1303 789 723 637 556 548 651 258 382 tah24_m -40 150 105 65 266 251 504 260 384 479 456 tah24_m -30 479 604 859 701 724 617 607 673 628 958 tah24_m -20 1224 1323 1057 1050 786 764 685 778 747 907 tah24_m -10 1022 1098 1012 850 739 833 889 980 1008 1198 tah24_m 0 932 1112 772 833 988 947 1037 1121 956 1031 tah24_m 10 918 1145 952 949 947 788 706 949 782 728 tah24_m 20 729 734 732 737 618 511 613 736 761 618 tah24_m 30 551 462 586 664 670 620 533 581 714 717 tah24_m 40 816 686 679 674 782 792 653 702 701 591 tah24_m 50 592 516 627 627 591 691 571 596 678 609 tah24_m 60 597 560 531 515 476 493 474 701 780 614 tah24_m 70 443 524 730 776 788 621 633 499 466 448 tah24_m 80 470 397 500 469 397 432 425 383 432 433 tah24_m 90 351 308 311 260 171 204 159 192 160 157 tah24_m 100 124 205 175 197 205 179 222 203 195 212 tah24_m 110 999 tah25_m 966 2233 2078 2488 2421 tah25_m 970 2902 2029 2817 2381 2454 2471 2361 2029 2099 2520 tah25_m 980 2518 2315 2354 2245 2230 1909 1566 1270 2005 2069 tah25_m 990 1988 2217 2214 2309 1603 1332 1764 1729 1499 1505 tah25_m 1000 1158 1218 1398 1498 1022 1506 1231 814 1495 1625 tah25_m 1010 1502 1384 1533 1340 857 1153 843 980 1443 1515 tah25_m 1020 889 650 1676 1785 1714 1307 1293 1243 1397 753 tah25_m 1030 742 474 373 340 813 826 736 718 636 660 tah25_m 1040 570 639 832 746 988 753 885 944 1028 1054 tah25_m 1050 984 990 1079 864 768 758 725 706 644 652 tah25_m 1060 847 664 692 801 796 839 726 726 799 421 tah25_m 1070 376 348 392 496 380 283 458 542 706 851 tah25_m 1080 961 1110 1071 1582 1505 999 tah26_m 0 1116 1002 771 735 990 1156 1154 1473 1253 1374 tah26_m 10 1173 1110 1106 1057 890 658 575 689 667 523 tah26_m 20 464 399 336 440 407 350 353 535 369 226 tah26_m 30 345 284 359 421 437 485 494 522 570 585 tah26_m 40 631 796 754 681 648 847 736 745 700 465 tah26_m 50 625 479 575 435 519 725 611 684 590 358 tah26_m 60 692 513 592 652 604 577 484 579 641 558 tah26_m 70 427 504 499 415 412 454 425 432 354 275 tah26_m 80 267 277 348 372 335 399 535 616 622 563 tah26_m 90 579 463 399 338 328 456 422 405 351 346 tah26_m 100 433 593 701 525 568 618 512 471 475 409 tah26_m 110 337 345 373 424 550 466 464 510 579 505 tah26_m 120 465 298 346 319 289 246 205 204 291 312 tah26_m 130 297 349 293 331 438 428 379 425 407 495 tah26_m 140 483 474 518 570 376 392 356 340 296 401 tah26_m 150 315 999 tah27_m -190 807 692 653 725 900 717 662 973 1012 656 tah27_m -180 410 429 344 653 534 492 761 618 714 866 tah27_m -170 769 581 688 674 554 426 551 585 550 422 tah27_m -160 342 495 503 473 653 825 991 406 565 633 tah27_m -150 708 793 602 655 597 591 688 681 655 525 tah27_m -140 308 189 214 126 93 161 98 119 156 195 tah27_m -130 285 400 362 461 341 493 300 243 252 285 tah27_m -120 292 373 428 755 815 672 838 979 681 801 tah27_m -110 637 796 649 527 468 461 434 508 360 297 tah27_m -100 386 319 345 363 343 327 378 415 412 403 tah27_m -90 444 626 656 576 553 519 608 600 864 727 tah27_m -80 756 702 695 586 528 502 344 331 276 204 tah27_m -70 321 268 244 258 116 187 200 221 188 231 tah27_m -60 281 243 318 410 425 318 350 297 328 332 tah27_m -50 409 478 288 475 384 443 423 530 369 453 tah27_m -40 431 234 177 193 195 220 281 305 337 352 tah27_m -30 384 315 291 432 541 423 516 591 647 500 tah27_m -20 535 578 491 392 335 404 351 418 419 415 tah27_m -10 471 456 513 514 411 401 542 472 599 628 tah27_m 0 718 807 488 576 676 800 766 848 1074 1079 tah27_m 10 1073 867 815 770 1002 746 551 781 463 361 tah27_m 20 365 335 385 305 232 255 262 365 259 194 tah27_m 30 205 175 181 189 255 303 285 323 323 377 tah27_m 40 459 497 420 434 436 338 447 410 530 383 tah27_m 50 431 373 560 568 515 497 453 475 501 999 tah29_m -75 1272 1273 1045 1043 737 tah29_m -70 837 677 633 672 435 724 567 705 544 550 tah29_m -60 768 674 785 850 961 1002 773 831 846 726 tah29_m -50 901 915 799 1095 1141 917 966 1088 965 1146 tah29_m -40 1367 928 710 641 423 622 592 776 796 739 tah29_m -30 816 757 910 891 1353 1155 1216 1121 1022 1015 tah29_m -20 1122 1254 1046 1087 905 930 781 1020 780 1053 tah29_m -10 1118 1035 957 867 580 863 1014 1016 989 943 tah29_m 0 931 730 490 429 444 503 576 737 624 635 tah29_m 10 655 676 694 730 813 697 583 806 851 715 tah29_m 20 590 580 583 564 461 413 433 477 430 418 tah29_m 30 370 346 496 700 689 999 tah30_km 727 594 894 787 tah30_km 730 701 712 767 741 893 868 790 942 955 964 tah30_km 740 1063 1124 1075 922 965 1438 1275 1186 1086 1010 tah30_km 750 1072 712 587 516 443 470 513 518 765 773 tah30_km 760 601 700 684 700 713 701 702 714 691 675 tah30_km 770 589 608 453 397 362 451 298 253 245 258 tah30_km 780 233 215 248 219 240 284 322 332 342 349 tah30_km 790 263 287 227 196 144 168 165 223 176 189 tah30_km 800 176 145 132 76 110 96 99 97 150 178 tah30_km 810 211 217 219 209 215 218 223 320 259 233 tah30_km 820 264 192 259 243 192 150 140 155 140 93 tah30_km 830 74 118 103 127 152 165 189 243 231 245 tah30_km 840 279 314 301 354 411 381 295 279 284 278 tah30_km 850 303 288 257 311 330 245 284 228 255 225 tah30_km 860 229 245 192 186 204 212 203 276 269 256 tah30_km 870 198 202 243 221 233 287 286 227 330 281 tah30_km 880 305 311 335 260 218 298 344 291 283 348 tah30_km 890 307 301 313 270 317 306 261 433 359 290 tah30_km 900 196 255 195 178 168 217 221 175 203 222 tah30_km 910 183 214 272 263 256 289 296 256 170 276 tah30_km 920 185 205 226 200 174 163 116 104 137 141 tah30_km 930 152 144 201 202 188 148 182 190 212 188 tah30_km 940 135 215 157 158 133 152 139 153 193 209 tah30_km 950 168 161 137 149 103 172 179 158 143 135 tah30_km 960 202 183 153 167 201 183 221 138 193 157 tah30_km 970 203 147 164 122 143 171 180 198 161 163 tah30_km 980 203 216 181 173 175 189 170 155 999 tah31_m 239 833 tah31_m 240 998 998 622 558 668 714 680 711 749 692 tah31_m 250 647 594 554 600 569 506 525 582 416 508 tah31_m 260 464 474 487 462 373 396 310 443 380 367 tah31_m 270 382 431 480 503 357 433 528 460 386 363 tah31_m 280 418 557 611 562 566 620 556 505 488 534 tah31_m 290 461 480 499 482 536 565 595 746 451 509 tah31_m 300 523 693 568 562 614 630 635 516 571 498 tah31_m 310 556 534 592 630 656 525 502 576 430 416 tah31_m 320 455 518 553 528 668 579 531 607 623 566 tah31_m 330 636 626 873 537 588 466 690 685 449 471 tah31_m 340 643 623 742 684 666 707 696 699 747 443 tah31_m 350 426 450 402 495 490 497 393 425 591 559 tah31_m 360 570 623 671 771 587 637 744 617 548 459 tah31_m 370 557 653 572 619 572 641 499 788 593 641 tah31_m 380 696 411 497 531 564 458 447 662 685 577 tah31_m 390 631 700 867 799 694 600 540 621 570 653 tah31_m 400 939 701 607 686 824 670 748 665 673 787 tah31_m 410 725 536 640 634 601 449 605 611 697 789 tah31_m 420 845 680 430 509 532 469 471 350 432 480 tah31_m 430 487 431 358 404 525 447 344 484 517 361 tah31_m 440 491 443 508 508 429 339 388 520 414 375 tah31_m 450 479 296 276 322 333 340 279 380 344 353 tah31_m 460 448 272 265 365 268 327 338 332 999 tah32_m 143 1399 1356 1750 2200 1644 1906 2297 tah32_m 150 1994 2041 1923 1904 1812 1452 1446 1523 1256 1106 tah32_m 160 995 810 970 1018 1044 1144 1144 1251 1225 1303 tah32_m 170 1207 1193 1080 1031 1005 1049 1072 1043 931 664 tah32_m 180 898 956 914 1123 1301 1388 1162 952 1179 1312 tah32_m 190 1431 1401 1385 1471 1281 1468 1384 1370 1108 1246 tah32_m 200 1225 1208 1327 991 826 650 590 545 578 735 tah32_m 210 593 744 1120 1059 982 1025 942 835 749 568 tah32_m 220 702 618 639 562 628 766 887 727 729 738 tah32_m 230 789 872 647 834 986 1144 1032 951 916 953 tah32_m 240 789 710 771 808 722 884 858 657 686 577 tah32_m 250 482 383 440 494 491 505 443 475 425 358 tah32_m 260 300 418 436 377 328 353 248 341 290 215 tah32_m 270 275 267 307 222 298 195 291 295 175 196 tah32_m 280 206 276 390 374 380 410 337 297 299 379 tah32_m 290 329 383 384 265 357 339 311 352 227 216 tah32_m 300 217 219 185 218 254 198 231 282 273 252 tah32_m 310 274 272 282 267 290 246 203 264 227 249 tah32_m 320 201 255 266 273 326 307 250 225 289 282 tah32_m 330 374 367 452 355 397 383 413 340 288 247 tah32_m 340 259 344 329 322 353 419 492 495 467 337 tah32_m 350 407 339 321 340 380 386 307 328 285 290 tah32_m 360 308 336 312 407 314 270 374 335 300 238 tah32_m 370 239 333 284 279 327 326 215 345 337 278 tah32_m 380 375 311 260 277 280 281 245 251 252 249 tah32_m 390 280 297 236 263 281 311 213 213 216 252 tah32_m 400 272 236 216 220 241 257 231 271 249 246 tah32_m 410 227 208 212 200 201 216 267 272 242 274 tah32_m 420 294 317 228 284 270 241 220 203 242 278 tah32_m 430 289 194 190 221 181 183 150 181 214 168 tah32_m 440 178 240 276 256 264 164 221 286 168 232 tah32_m 450 241 165 130 216 195 157 106 184 166 155 tah32_m 460 215 159 124 999 tah33_m 497 940 991 1311 tah33_m 500 876 662 683 905 730 830 912 1016 856 1268 tah33_m 510 1646 1226 1111 1137 1206 1031 1146 1077 1272 1193 tah33_m 520 1401 1348 928 1068 1083 891 862 943 741 715 tah33_m 530 921 735 748 713 693 690 647 515 549 439 tah33_m 540 585 550 628 413 406 367 406 458 507 364 tah33_m 550 401 416 401 418 475 465 583 608 576 481 tah33_m 560 511 462 315 467 552 790 785 569 483 486 tah33_m 570 561 704 603 601 534 420 576 563 643 538 tah33_m 580 475 436 479 403 357 325 360 440 521 410 tah33_m 590 432 347 311 401 326 323 232 236 237 194 tah33_m 600 207 173 208 183 207 297 278 295 283 300 tah33_m 610 219 260 300 323 378 373 290 364 342 292 tah33_m 620 255 288 268 233 256 284 202 201 245 277 tah33_m 630 318 247 238 213 290 210 281 254 205 221 tah33_m 640 247 240 298 218 248 267 283 233 213 238 tah33_m 650 218 232 288 227 210 227 309 281 214 273 tah33_m 660 274 252 284 270 247 318 263 241 250 280 tah33_m 670 248 260 262 242 290 304 296 247 240 271 tah33_m 680 311 331 285 331 362 386 312 297 258 203 tah33_m 690 177 210 202 209 228 203 182 138 142 158 tah33_m 700 174 243 280 287 265 349 451 365 382 395 tah33_m 710 429 346 270 214 163 234 209 202 196 252 tah33_m 720 229 222 263 285 242 238 219 231 232 999 tah34_km 151 355 347 325 298 244 250 330 301 142 tah34_km 160 126 141 188 223 172 198 158 130 172 131 tah34_km 170 105 111 105 97 102 146 129 98 64 48 tah34_km 180 91 81 78 132 140 91 75 74 82 109 tah34_km 190 99 93 78 59 68 83 83 95 65 75 tah34_km 200 52 55 54 48 42 53 38 30 37 56 tah34_km 210 61 77 61 73 64 62 58 55 55 48 tah34_km 220 52 47 42 57 40 60 64 74 59 69 tah34_km 230 88 96 70 87 102 124 96 83 66 94 tah34_km 240 111 131 127 104 101 104 134 96 163 126 tah34_km 250 183 145 133 142 111 179 163 159 153 159 tah34_km 260 167 233 148 149 149 163 155 122 136 130 tah34_km 270 132 113 109 186 605 800 556 329 279 456 tah34_km 280 373 385 247 318 273 442 523 785 382 580 tah34_km 290 551 862 902 651 520 354 535 433 336 484 tah34_km 300 558 727 598 623 688 599 591 467 500 490 tah34_km 310 385 398 461 403 532 345 339 516 380 441 tah34_km 320 392 370 384 447 475 349 307 285 578 458 tah34_km 330 406 429 454 263 371 318 285 245 198 261 tah34_km 340 463 481 453 350 565 622 734 626 505 378 tah34_km 350 438 406 343 348 409 353 306 369 407 360 tah34_km 360 368 461 580 593 566 486 594 584 402 354 tah34_km 370 348 455 397 424 357 502 299 474 284 320 tah34_km 380 463 348 277 344 372 389 381 478 417 390 tah34_km 390 435 535 496 476 519 502 485 464 373 403 tah34_km 400 496 410 419 413 491 446 464 491 519 486 tah34_km 410 441 467 579 423 402 431 484 506 528 590 tah34_km 420 682 813 536 683 741 757 534 346 251 254 tah34_km 430 234 148 154 205 250 294 241 291 319 249 tah34_km 440 277 343 292 388 313 291 312 407 378 381 tah34_km 450 476 384 374 420 385 417 305 339 346 407 tah34_km 460 548 429 369 440 443 378 445 500 395 436 tah34_km 470 465 451 559 634 483 531 519 392 356 352 tah34_km 480 259 227 169 142 129 158 63 119 108 139 tah34_km 490 159 120 202 196 180 99 126 111 135 164 tah34_km 500 143 137 157 271 188 215 231 308 296 295 tah34_km 510 394 427 425 999 tah35_km 277 492 469 522 tah35_km 280 650 543 468 632 422 654 572 544 510 447 tah35_km 290 575 821 680 558 667 446 570 543 554 526 tah35_km 300 510 597 454 540 385 430 512 815 907 732 tah35_km 310 549 689 516 501 515 488 441 524 469 562 tah35_km 320 475 379 390 541 587 451 355 340 308 393 tah35_km 330 371 458 510 352 393 349 340 279 248 241 tah35_km 340 258 367 348 344 329 409 579 497 550 353 tah35_km 350 377 373 383 504 538 466 358 384 425 370 tah35_km 360 402 403 545 547 435 402 508 386 354 359 tah35_km 370 420 432 361 331 403 458 263 516 385 485 tah35_km 380 568 410 332 382 358 386 419 406 375 415 tah35_km 390 468 467 523 469 494 513 362 495 396 351 tah35_km 400 570 417 470 373 422 331 350 412 440 513 tah35_km 410 503 422 550 455 430 386 498 420 468 490 tah35_km 420 489 409 334 428 544 509 507 322 375 459 tah35_km 430 434 362 296 358 384 392 325 429 498 380 tah35_km 440 384 424 435 484 508 379 510 494 475 452 tah35_km 450 404 331 273 318 349 326 258 283 276 282 tah35_km 460 330 999 tah37_m 224 1534 2045 1998 1316 1754 1103 tah37_m 230 1099 948 1047 1087 1386 1711 1392 886 762 1175 tah37_m 240 1530 1404 1246 1377 1334 1939 1947 1541 972 1149 tah37_m 250 1204 986 1141 997 1287 1263 1181 1020 916 805 tah37_m 260 528 1055 1180 848 801 903 893 1007 827 844 tah37_m 270 956 984 872 619 550 736 889 576 458 561 tah37_m 280 607 735 894 943 861 918 701 760 807 1001 tah37_m 290 934 1002 1006 743 707 764 862 726 470 537 tah37_m 300 533 559 449 512 449 451 372 452 464 525 tah37_m 310 452 342 367 331 404 389 336 373 356 323 tah37_m 320 393 457 359 354 429 400 367 324 391 450 tah37_m 330 426 504 616 446 400 334 455 419 390 287 tah37_m 340 327 409 377 340 316 346 380 338 339 203 tah37_m 350 207 199 247 185 196 214 163 192 169 182 tah37_m 360 180 236 239 246 227 195 246 228 244 187 tah37_m 370 185 176 193 170 210 203 128 245 203 289 tah37_m 380 239 187 152 178 152 161 151 155 168 224 tah37_m 390 183 226 238 245 232 242 157 152 146 168 tah37_m 400 200 177 174 155 208 190 195 192 201 191 tah37_m 410 207 209 195 124 142 141 179 218 192 156 tah37_m 420 159 130 125 145 154 134 150 143 151 144 tah37_m 430 161 119 107 122 126 117 133 165 187 183 tah37_m 440 176 206 188 216 204 140 179 180 161 137 tah37_m 450 166 136 131 157 145 104 120 144 129 153 tah37_m 460 176 138 137 133 149 146 152 190 183 206 tah37_m 470 188 164 200 194 163 185 182 198 181 151 tah37_m 480 126 117 82 98 97 133 74 97 101 83 tah37_m 490 91 86 106 92 107 67 78 98 84 97 tah37_m 500 73 109 79 111 82 101 110 110 113 124 tah37_m 510 142 121 114 117 141 142 117 102 999 tah39_m 498 1558 2364 tah39_m 500 1475 1500 1369 2420 1795 1491 1823 1908 1682 2453 tah39_m 510 3343 2174 1846 1930 1798 1505 1407 1567 2090 2213 tah39_m 520 2375 2348 1522 1906 1892 1227 1135 1512 1237 1366 tah39_m 530 1448 833 1032 985 1062 1207 1085 806 680 557 tah39_m 540 900 1173 1188 778 443 414 449 411 593 393 tah39_m 550 413 406 534 740 686 798 1188 1522 1020 933 tah39_m 560 700 766 630 864 788 833 578 511 575 588 tah39_m 570 615 896 792 643 755 633 702 691 797 732 tah39_m 580 716 600 702 631 643 680 689 793 860 695 tah39_m 590 643 673 640 702 747 759 536 475 454 399 tah39_m 600 454 309 338 298 414 559 599 695 703 685 tah39_m 610 477 579 605 691 763 755 729 1015 926 1033 tah39_m 620 663 706 940 689 660 649 611 456 577 700 tah39_m 630 977 816 701 622 979 598 761 675 571 979 tah39_m 640 1024 832 1189 799 765 925 742 658 763 586 tah39_m 650 722 676 708 558 428 634 785 759 582 627 tah39_m 660 626 818 776 711 622 923 841 665 847 1175 tah39_m 670 787 769 675 643 686 763 630 531 589 691 tah39_m 680 826 748 658 747 858 1500 978 1205 761 440 tah39_m 690 283 356 382 325 409 408 366 302 341 414 tah39_m 700 398 634 533 627 528 775 887 723 786 723 tah39_m 710 686 627 746 513 482 530 558 429 457 516 tah39_m 720 519 550 763 833 667 638 544 622 575 999 tah40_m 209 1097 tah40_m 210 1050 1687 2749 2497 2695 2238 1672 2807 2552 1686 tah40_m 220 2089 1764 1385 1154 1037 1386 1852 1181 1083 1389 tah40_m 230 1228 1717 1662 2267 2027 2279 2204 1444 1465 1607 tah40_m 240 1481 1630 1142 1160 1086 1379 1618 1603 1448 1195 tah40_m 250 983 593 786 1014 1387 1332 1197 1303 1352 975 tah40_m 260 653 1015 1140 869 765 686 905 1001 798 741 tah40_m 270 898 918 861 797 783 703 691 490 480 622 tah40_m 280 575 712 871 870 837 689 663 633 682 941 tah40_m 290 815 952 968 811 847 723 835 791 655 550 tah40_m 300 595 538 480 487 582 475 415 438 444 464 tah40_m 310 474 483 579 459 555 525 343 395 337 361 tah40_m 320 419 383 362 383 536 429 386 332 437 398 tah40_m 330 380 562 641 451 426 302 395 434 357 311 tah40_m 340 275 357 324 301 328 339 358 395 287 199 tah40_m 350 213 164 207 203 199 203 156 196 166 143 tah40_m 360 202 219 241 224 193 173 232 232 201 170 tah40_m 370 167 178 159 175 220 228 97 248 217 256 tah40_m 380 234 212 222 217 181 200 219 222 183 213 tah40_m 390 180 247 242 231 291 282 246 229 181 268 tah40_m 400 303 250 235 199 255 238 281 321 297 292 tah40_m 410 291 278 236 172 210 175 227 199 233 234 tah40_m 420 252 184 222 237 289 231 220 223 220 278 tah40_m 430 262 261 221 245 249 243 229 236 286 273 tah40_m 440 299 332 297 316 300 246 241 255 235 234 tah40_m 450 296 246 220 237 225 202 226 240 223 231 tah40_m 460 251 238 247 233 243 282 288 309 339 999 tah41_m 147 1933 1480 570 tah41_m 150 550 743 685 882 1611 1021 1336 1367 1148 761 tah41_m 160 838 848 1131 897 847 899 951 809 559 617 tah41_m 170 512 539 554 420 533 515 570 492 329 344 tah41_m 180 478 530 392 630 635 516 435 472 504 601 tah41_m 190 853 898 861 866 765 931 866 1097 859 917 tah41_m 200 978 735 754 883 769 592 605 500 482 635 tah41_m 210 506 557 583 682 597 651 596 567 566 537 tah41_m 220 549 693 687 691 742 864 920 657 823 802 tah41_m 230 757 1109 724 913 902 1189 1174 1017 926 1057 tah41_m 240 1031 987 888 1002 785 732 591 665 626 580 tah41_m 250 525 369 407 428 585 759 705 719 754 729 tah41_m 260 504 618 595 549 474 529 449 484 429 407 tah41_m 270 416 565 695 499 561 515 740 686 665 651 tah41_m 280 560 609 743 652 641 690 622 676 579 716 tah41_m 290 546 701 674 412 372 298 472 420 356 427 tah41_m 300 533 540 428 378 420 405 384 438 411 385 tah41_m 310 379 467 465 339 366 355 332 371 394 474 tah41_m 320 338 288 279 314 380 381 358 343 387 405 tah41_m 330 413 455 522 349 334 265 299 329 331 404 tah41_m 340 426 521 479 465 357 321 385 390 357 302 tah41_m 350 248 187 178 230 217 222 137 248 179 158 tah41_m 360 155 206 243 235 162 170 243 188 197 191 tah41_m 370 190 198 162 213 182 287 172 224 218 205 tah41_m 380 292 190 212 999 tah42_m 109 1791 tah42_m 110 1792 2063 2081 1926 2563 2505 2449 3360 2511 1978 tah42_m 120 1801 2102 2613 1024 1759 2390 1584 1682 1738 1228 tah42_m 130 1286 1263 1214 395 681 872 833 1283 1321 1280 tah42_m 140 1101 1093 1177 1341 932 1099 997 977 598 786 tah42_m 150 663 996 978 932 943 815 838 880 834 828 tah42_m 160 694 633 766 1021 831 874 1029 1157 916 720 tah42_m 170 744 792 814 860 713 691 616 620 584 443 tah42_m 180 539 653 635 786 787 759 557 504 619 688 tah42_m 190 704 805 1071 1060 799 739 872 1063 813 935 tah42_m 200 811 768 815 836 671 579 681 535 528 835 tah42_m 210 522 552 688 632 611 597 555 649 741 542 tah42_m 220 486 556 595 566 612 784 757 574 541 475 tah42_m 230 384 641 491 584 796 811 826 743 533 497 tah42_m 240 687 564 549 662 599 704 640 747 594 456 tah42_m 250 424 295 350 321 421 590 603 563 436 442 tah42_m 260 376 500 398 329 260 354 254 389 321 318 tah42_m 270 354 375 442 403 406 397 687 664 660 606 tah42_m 280 560 568 768 628 612 564 479 445 488 634 tah42_m 290 486 616 606 377 348 364 531 450 465 547 tah42_m 300 459 542 351 455 494 444 431 425 393 361 tah42_m 310 433 487 487 411 433 382 343 380 399 422 tah42_m 320 311 330 334 389 513 488 343 352 557 595 tah42_m 330 629 619 772 519 529 495 601 594 485 511 tah42_m 340 509 560 599 668 547 483 695 661 897 788 tah42_m 350 737 617 557 687 733 600 519 693 540 453 tah42_m 360 606 537 743 588 550 515 742 724 999 ugb01_m 868 1669 1942 ugb01_m 870 1792 1585 2129 2437 2408 2682 1945 1483 1761 2643 ugb01_m 880 2643 2429 2343 2319 2197 2651 2407 2572 2232 2322 ugb01_m 890 2268 2385 2215 1871 1746 1550 913 1340 1314 1578 ugb01_m 900 1825 2169 1974 1985 1596 1683 1883 1301 1623 1576 ugb01_m 910 1321 1409 1731 1756 2049 1954 2574 2349 1797 1724 ugb01_m 920 1202 1101 1030 1074 917 732 834 776 1374 1260 ugb01_m 930 1364 1181 1428 1331 1363 1025 1399 1450 1227 908 ugb01_m 940 998 1512 1125 948 532 749 769 1067 1731 1707 ugb01_m 950 1097 1414 1219 1292 749 680 656 770 703 891 ugb01_m 960 1476 1155 655 923 1252 1486 1365 1021 1214 996 ugb01_m 970 1346 950 813 1028 907 941 919 909 999 ugb02_m 1041 1221 1395 953 1082 1671 1681 1662 1135 1493 ugb02_m 1050 1512 1045 1286 1117 870 766 697 815 1073 1099 ugb02_m 1060 1265 1290 1088 1435 1506 1354 1186 1170 1746 1596 ugb02_m 1070 1042 964 691 813 966 995 917 913 857 878 ugb02_m 1080 970 922 650 889 857 727 665 995 547 800 ugb02_m 1090 711 911 945 1054 906 1063 1030 978 958 1087 ugb02_m 1100 1129 798 862 605 643 715 952 788 817 830 ugb02_m 1110 999 ugb03_m 927 1446 946 662 ugb03_m 930 535 620 660 697 856 923 1418 1261 1084 1224 ugb03_m 940 1216 1349 1265 1163 1069 892 965 947 1165 1298 ugb03_m 950 1155 980 910 1025 1057 945 1312 1000 977 1071 ugb03_m 960 1053 1185 697 688 887 984 762 812 1107 1126 ugb03_m 970 876 917 1205 1363 1200 895 847 783 1011 946 ugb03_m 980 1095 902 876 1087 979 831 745 654 668 718 ugb03_m 990 884 845 774 988 767 737 640 597 527 538 ugb03_m 1000 537 723 680 833 625 640 334 236 327 405 ugb03_m 1010 450 528 668 667 495 745 542 623 650 539 ugb03_m 1020 337 321 374 470 401 381 352 266 343 261 ugb03_m 1030 346 432 404 364 339 341 293 308 345 373 ugb03_m 1040 351 386 484 261 422 389 477 472 393 404 ugb03_m 1050 458 344 379 473 351 277 239 218 276 306 ugb03_m 1060 287 216 194 276 279 296 255 264 352 294 ugb03_m 1070 332 215 208 247 300 280 262 331 277 285 ugb03_m 1080 247 290 260 330 999 wtl3_m 1223 2075 1850 2001 3086 2341 2999 2227 wtl3_m 1230 2787 2643 2515 2068 2086 2115 1580 1832 2085 2066 wtl3_m 1240 2198 2421 2233 2788 2005 2049 2015 2829 2147 1969 wtl3_m 1250 1959 1775 1758 2355 1835 2269 1825 2121 1766 1953 wtl3_m 1260 1847 1453 1632 1400 1361 1040 1296 1029 1335 1456 wtl3_m 1270 1369 1569 1378 1211 1440 1366 1251 1366 1014 1110 wtl3_m 1280 1108 787 799 787 637 811 867 429 556 642 wtl3_m 1290 552 625 589 526 516 532 542 824 777 627 wtl3_m 1300 553 663 622 604 627 707 606 541 607 670 wtl3_m 1310 542 818 905 813 690 641 623 1029 879 827 wtl3_m 1320 983 1001 905 924 1144 1089 1108 955 1145 972 wtl3_m 1330 786 608 955 913 741 724 689 723 656 705 wtl3_m 1340 836 727 634 684 524 609 461 413 389 421 wtl3_m 1350 521 507 578 448 498 429 427 527 598 707 wtl3_m 1360 698 719 656 733 676 721 508 577 523 468 wtl3_m 1370 598 512 492 544 386 397 413 396 475 475 wtl3_m 1380 499 474 452 443 505 538 475 434 464 437 wtl3_m 1390 346 323 204 361 328 266 296 390 411 418 wtl3_m 1400 396 404 382 457 351 384 311 391 452 430 wtl3_m 1410 340 408 436 461 368 368 336 416 411 409 wtl3_m 1420 362 402 391 378 463 386 367 393 379 368 wtl3_m 1430 309 415 352 390 476 425 344 346 307 376 wtl3_m 1440 336 269 396 410 338 392 291 348 322 285 wtl3_m 1450 313 250 310 316 307 332 291 308 312 271 wtl3_m 1460 315 339 327 314 300 271 285 266 298 295 wtl3_m 1470 314 357 318 355 450 457 538 560 450 445 wtl3_m 1480 479 474 433 401 460 361 520 607 562 540 wtl3_m 1490 516 417 409 247 387 311 373 243 427 397 wtl3_m 1500 394 398 430 385 418 406 413 472 459 513 wtl3_m 1510 525 409 568 474 444 341 423 398 382 331 wtl3_m 1520 300 315 259 332 191 291 308 293 272 253 wtl3_m 1530 184 177 200 160 222 162 145 153 200 202 wtl3_m 1540 212 181 130 230 230 184 194 222 238 190 wtl3_m 1550 200 284 286 271 224 231 264 219 233 244 wtl3_m 1560 231 324 246 218 217 203 194 192 220 252 wtl3_m 1570 243 204 258 203 225 226 128 162 176 113 wtl3_m 1580 173 128 158 203 163 161 174 123 111 147 wtl3_m 1590 179 103 74 98 138 134 78 113 77 75 wtl3_m 1600 73 65 93 126 110 123 93 122 132 97 wtl3_m 1610 162 160 80 132 98 115 144 107 113 164 wtl3_m 1620 134 164 127 76 120 69 38 59 20 78 wtl3_m 1630 20 86 62 65 93 126 116 150 156 64 wtl3_m 1640 147 185 140 172 161 203 182 179 154 179 wtl3_m 1650 152 135 125 157 146 130 125 143 151 222 wtl3_m 1660 168 206 187 172 234 238 227 187 191 244 wtl3_m 1670 172 229 303 244 190 113 155 124 133 166 wtl3_m 1680 155 186 254 265 299 226 294 296 227 194 wtl3_m 1690 181 176 145 173 152 118 168 168 120 159 wtl3_m 1700 118 101 144 133 171 107 199 185 155 182 wtl3_m 1710 210 189 163 104 153 122 95 37 87 92 wtl3_m 1720 108 99 150 110 155 122 128 151 151 129 wtl3_m 1730 106 152 149 282 270 232 247 218 182 206 wtl3_m 1740 189 183 240 181 189 129 207 215 226 114 wtl3_m 1750 82 127 153 999 wtl4_m 867 1649 1428 1401 wtl4_m 870 1500 1547 1521 1394 1346 1393 1212 933 1159 1067 wtl4_m 880 1293 1165 1368 1215 1110 1223 1248 1209 1157 1217 wtl4_m 890 948 1015 987 914 921 778 633 794 635 721 wtl4_m 900 637 636 563 490 522 464 415 293 267 282 wtl4_m 910 237 346 388 436 493 436 531 468 429 560 wtl4_m 920 537 590 654 653 665 547 528 591 585 862 wtl4_m 930 755 649 816 823 817 731 845 724 783 641 wtl4_m 940 654 797 568 537 508 701 657 689 835 895 wtl4_m 950 737 853 724 917 782 678 871 678 782 707 wtl4_m 960 872 690 639 729 733 863 843 653 732 704 wtl4_m 970 739 691 707 703 684 695 677 603 685 693 wtl4_m 980 580 669 868 905 985 938 886 717 506 535 wtl4_m 990 617 999 wtl5_m 1613 1471 1461 1146 1968 2325 1800 1882 wtl5_m 1620 2181 1929 1740 1645 1699 1747 1674 1931 1315 1791 wtl5_m 1630 1358 1309 1763 1704 1672 1435 1563 1271 1362 1079 wtl5_m 1640 1246 1315 1342 1245 1371 1318 1460 1417 1472 1384 wtl5_m 1650 1411 1111 1124 1306 1457 1525 1658 1417 1434 1471 wtl5_m 1660 1539 1425 1666 1298 1638 1205 1577 1372 1364 1578 wtl5_m 1670 1451 1450 1471 1371 1384 757 1012 959 1158 1463 wtl5_m 1680 1495 1778 1547 1659 1860 1196 1567 1493 1447 1218 wtl5_m 1690 1375 1502 1228 1096 983 916 992 835 703 659 wtl5_m 1700 705 602 545 572 860 805 894 802 999 wtl6_m 1195 1639 1998 2144 2031 2541 wtl6_m 1200 3278 2523 2628 2294 3002 2470 2642 2135 3158 3015 wtl6_m 1210 1954 2468 2546 2542 2743 2444 2500 2131 2287 2452 wtl6_m 1220 2196 2298 1874 2046 2483 2235 2471 1918 2017 1913 wtl6_m 1230 2374 1879 2421 1783 1854 1753 1490 1249 1876 1806 wtl6_m 1240 1875 2152 2040 2136 1554 1691 1851 2089 1620 1345 wtl6_m 1250 1398 1352 1544 1557 1195 1491 1273 1327 1108 1285 wtl6_m 1260 1053 743 892 781 574 597 550 549 736 732 wtl6_m 1270 746 654 748 648 754 549 547 564 618 605 wtl6_m 1280 517 392 362 339 380 336 432 278 424 537 wtl6_m 1290 408 382 581 400 557 560 408 502 590 426 wtl6_m 1300 334 405 401 433 486 481 440 380 482 477 wtl6_m 1310 409 511 566 573 510 401 569 838 764 736 wtl6_m 1320 811 726 633 762 771 840 862 836 928 1000 wtl6_m 1330 978 906 1060 1033 760 688 644 638 604 670 wtl6_m 1340 869 929 778 796 789 739 688 643 653 622 wtl6_m 1350 761 688 825 656 795 758 632 875 826 828 wtl6_m 1360 999 wtl7_m 1385 885 1392 1205 1059 1254 wtl7_m 1390 1357 1448 1304 1483 1379 698 1030 1132 1061 998 wtl7_m 1400 1077 1467 1800 1625 1291 1409 1047 1338 1257 979 wtl7_m 1410 1053 1001 1101 1222 1073 1331 1218 1230 1348 1143 wtl7_m 1420 1474 1668 2014 1379 1554 1433 1220 1300 1295 1177 wtl7_m 1430 1235 1777 1550 1655 1497 1443 1296 1392 1098 1095 wtl7_m 1440 1223 1099 1475 1190 1335 1412 1188 1101 1197 1105 wtl7_m 1450 1533 970 952 858 914 937 913 989 877 780 wtl7_m 1460 690 967 705 690 611 473 361 423 577 523 wtl7_m 1470 605 548 553 565 708 622 754 736 627 578 wtl7_m 1480 739 700 569 557 781 498 691 911 903 920 wtl7_m 1490 1250 909 806 493 592 383 467 326 499 473 wtl7_m 1500 441 505 492 581 501 508 504 493 499 539 wtl7_m 1510 590 470 611 591 469 355 483 544 458 343 wtl7_m 1520 273 273 281 360 384 463 431 364 378 318 wtl7_m 1530 272 199 264 197 307 357 303 256 265 269 wtl7_m 1540 339 360 206 406 350 280 402 411 455 337 wtl7_m 1550 346 493 530 490 443 530 583 505 489 514 wtl7_m 1560 546 793 669 562 644 745 679 711 897 570 wtl7_m 1570 639 695 815 647 587 682 458 414 499 354 wtl7_m 1580 500 442 400 483 344 146 96 178 184 222 wtl7_m 1590 255 170 99 191 205 260 213 273 213 296 wtl7_m 1600 276 285 268 240 354 339 380 414 458 323 wtl7_m 1610 456 405 339 555 442 549 485 333 299 446 wtl7_m 1620 417 459 427 374 426 454 376 474 319 501 wtl7_m 1630 385 364 224 314 317 376 488 829 1019 469 wtl7_m 1640 805 624 735 806 926 820 1213 831 738 1033 wtl7_m 1650 837 681 832 874 778 1060 1131 1011 955 927 wtl7_m 1660 811 987 626 489 805 835 881 811 607 787 wtl7_m 1670 513 511 801 786 527 220 429 304 436 712 wtl7_m 1680 608 867 777 1089 1040 705 1081 1171 1020 590 wtl7_m 1690 711 701 597 635 615 781 730 708 678 578 wtl7_m 1700 646 705 966 999 wtl8_m 1278 709 1354 wtl8_m 1280 1554 1239 834 869 688 869 739 442 701 711 wtl8_m 1290 632 577 573 535 596 715 666 839 694 539 wtl8_m 1300 568 722 558 586 651 583 549 451 540 549 wtl8_m 1310 448 636 665 763 725 583 543 747 590 531 wtl8_m 1320 570 636 578 625 737 703 801 646 690 541 wtl8_m 1330 486 428 503 388 352 379 391 421 378 366 wtl8_m 1340 368 297 274 356 325 317 284 269 246 256 wtl8_m 1350 239 203 289 238 340 267 260 365 407 406 wtl8_m 1360 360 351 327 391 373 423 311 357 287 297 wtl8_m 1370 270 285 267 285 209 228 221 203 198 245 wtl8_m 1380 212 220 233 248 259 274 279 266 247 258 wtl8_m 1390 197 184 133 204 169 176 217 235 217 270 wtl8_m 1400 293 230 241 292 184 266 221 284 286 241 wtl8_m 1410 218 280 272 277 214 214 204 220 242 238 wtl8_m 1420 212 246 231 252 330 289 250 249 281 261 wtl8_m 1430 239 212 196 280 304 281 235 245 246 303 wtl8_m 1440 296 251 247 243 237 267 230 284 251 210 wtl8_m 1450 225 217 228 249 221 208 207 218 201 162 wtl8_m 1460 198 211 212 216 213 165 150 151 138 142 wtl8_m 1470 133 137 140 157 247 252 252 325 222 224 wtl8_m 1480 296 299 270 257 289 252 364 353 340 297 wtl8_m 1490 312 330 304 212 237 167 300 200 302 252 wtl8_m 1500 203 213 260 247 298 286 262 276 288 353 wtl8_m 1510 310 319 354 363 335 289 310 283 347 233 wtl8_m 1520 221 232 243 193 222 316 246 315 226 214 wtl8_m 1530 163 174 182 186 226 172 200 209 199 243 wtl8_m 1540 193 207 264 252 185 216 215 229 254 225 wtl8_m 1550 245 320 252 348 261 286 329 360 391 355 wtl8_m 1560 386 471 376 301 410 336 328 287 328 340 wtl8_m 1570 322 289 301 289 279 301 255 259 326 265 wtl8_m 1580 290 270 245 342 232 234 251 220 153 222 wtl8_m 1590 252 208 206 225 257 233 229 271 189 185 wtl8_m 1600 169 177 163 238 254 240 207 228 243 195 wtl8_m 1610 245 258 238 297 313 306 253 274 223 280 wtl8_m 1620 282 999 z01x04gm 247 2010 1620 1920 z01x04gm 250 1420 1140 1910 1240 1310 1250 1110 1230 1130 1110 z01x04gm 260 1030 1170 1020 980 1350 1290 1290 1170 1140 1050 z01x04gm 270 1320 1390 1400 1430 1450 1550 2150 1940 1700 1390 z01x04gm 280 1310 1670 1490 1140 1190 1270 1120 1010 1060 1290 z01x04gm 290 1130 1220 1130 880 1080 1230 1130 1110 1180 980 z01x04gm 300 1350 1240 1110 1200 1370 1090 1460 1040 840 800 z01x04gm 310 850 800 1080 1010 1170 1010 900 1040 1000 990 z01x04gm 320 730 800 820 720 1130 830 590 730 680 510 z01x04gm 330 540 800 560 490 590 550 810 999 z01x05gm 99 600 z01x05gm 100 630 780 720 720 670 800 560 640 770 530 z01x05gm 110 620 570 460 410 620 440 560 600 510 510 z01x05gm 120 520 440 510 420 440 410 470 430 470 480 z01x05gm 130 400 490 380 400 420 360 400 480 370 610 z01x05gm 140 490 450 500 400 410 470 350 410 270 350 z01x05gm 150 240 360 260 310 240 210 280 320 350 280 z01x05gm 160 270 310 300 370 380 390 300 440 320 210 z01x05gm 170 310 290 290 310 240 330 300 180 190 290 z01x05gm 180 250 310 280 410 390 340 290 280 370 400 z01x05gm 190 430 450 510 520 510 460 640 620 390 530 z01x05gm 200 380 570 350 430 420 380 400 290 240 540 z01x05gm 210 480 470 590 420 440 390 550 520 480 380 z01x05gm 220 430 540 540 380 540 570 630 570 580 560 z01x05gm 230 530 540 440 550 630 580 600 480 590 640 z01x05gm 240 550 600 820 620 580 810 780 740 800 830 z01x05gm 250 770 500 690 660 670 460 540 460 430 430 z01x05gm 260 530 600 680 560 590 630 510 560 420 400 z01x05gm 270 360 380 430 390 430 570 660 620 560 570 z01x05gm 280 560 700 760 680 640 550 570 480 500 460 z01x05gm 290 330 510 490 370 340 450 370 999 z01x06gm 210 1080 560 540 500 930 640 420 1120 720 490 z01x06gm 220 670 820 740 720 720 690 910 680 740 610 z01x06gm 230 410 420 400 600 650 840 610 550 550 650 z01x06gm 240 550 650 710 620 500 690 570 440 560 590 z01x06gm 250 410 340 500 810 600 500 360 460 370 170 z01x06gm 260 230 400 380 450 360 390 230 300 200 210 z01x06gm 270 200 190 220 210 320 340 530 400 300 320 z01x06gm 280 300 380 320 330 350 300 360 320 250 310 z01x06gm 290 280 220 190 240 220 210 250 310 170 250 z01x06gm 300 260 320 220 280 240 220 270 370 300 190 z01x06gm 310 220 240 170 200 170 220 90 230 180 160 z01x06gm 320 190 150 270 410 430 340 240 140 240 420 z01x06gm 330 300 400 310 370 250 250 300 270 210 310 z01x06gm 340 200 450 450 350 260 450 570 500 440 120 z01x06gm 350 210 260 170 260 440 340 210 280 290 460 z01x06gm 360 510 470 360 420 440 360 570 450 490 390 z01x06gm 370 380 490 600 540 560 550 250 500 440 550 z01x06gm 380 500 460 380 530 490 360 370 310 440 400 z01x06gm 390 360 320 240 260 250 290 140 180 310 320 z01x06gm 400 530 999 z01x17gm 888 940 750 z01x17gm 890 610 730 620 340 470 460 290 610 550 410 z01x17gm 900 620 490 500 530 630 430 410 290 460 480 z01x17gm 910 220 500 480 690 800 780 1070 1120 750 750 z01x17gm 920 670 700 630 660 620 800 750 810 830 850 z01x17gm 930 490 400 840 690 840 530 580 480 490 350 z01x17gm 940 390 570 470 440 320 560 510 480 660 690 z01x17gm 950 780 680 610 740 570 590 720 690 590 540 z01x17gm 960 560 320 200 420 450 300 370 190 220 220 z01x17gm 970 220 230 210 180 280 300 210 410 380 350 z01x17gm 980 410 390 640 670 690 630 470 480 360 310 z01x17gm 990 540 440 410 540 390 370 400 360 290 310 z01x17gm1000 360 560 360 420 270 440 240 180 610 460 z01x17gm1010 600 600 480 670 390 460 240 490 570 790 z01x17gm1020 580 670 1000 870 560 550 660 730 640 360 z01x17gm1030 440 510 520 630 680 620 560 700 820 820 z01x17gm1040 620 420 630 400 550 590 790 660 550 540 z01x17gm1050 560 490 390 400 370 340 300 300 350 400 z01x17gm1060 480 430 360 350 500 460 220 370 340 350 z01x17gm1070 280 240 230 300 230 200 340 370 490 450 z01x17gm1080 460 590 540 540 480 380 410 520 290 340 z01x17gm1090 400 540 530 490 460 510 420 380 370 520 z01x17gm1100 999 z01x28gm 839 2840 z01x28gm 840 2970 2830 3330 2420 2620 2780 2510 2130 2430 1980 z01x28gm 850 2360 2970 2700 2650 2600 1940 2130 2120 1850 1710 z01x28gm 860 1680 1050 610 730 810 570 950 1010 830 820 z01x28gm 870 690 920 1170 1110 1180 1600 1270 1010 1230 1260 z01x28gm 880 1190 1440 1490 1190 960 1150 1230 950 1150 1370 z01x28gm 890 1250 1090 1100 1010 890 700 700 820 900 850 z01x28gm 900 1040 1130 960 1110 910 830 610 410 640 410 z01x28gm 910 400 640 760 730 840 850 920 1020 780 910 z01x28gm 920 740 740 840 1180 1050 1120 1080 1210 1180 1350 z01x28gm 930 950 920 1510 1120 1200 1060 1360 1150 920 850 z01x28gm 940 840 1120 920 1000 580 930 630 690 850 1070 z01x28gm 950 1380 1220 1020 1120 1160 920 1310 1110 1170 1190 z01x28gm 960 1180 980 930 1040 1190 1270 950 690 950 999 z01x29gm 882 1890 1220 1120 1260 1120 1060 1210 1720 z01x29gm 890 1190 1000 1130 700 830 440 530 760 550 480 z01x29gm 900 790 860 660 810 460 550 430 140 340 220 z01x29gm 910 200 310 430 410 440 270 420 550 370 500 z01x29gm 920 380 350 510 620 540 610 610 900 570 690 z01x29gm 930 790 470 950 550 580 590 1130 780 620 570 z01x29gm 940 510 1050 640 650 470 700 490 510 690 840 z01x29gm 950 1210 860 660 700 730 670 900 680 770 770 z01x29gm 960 830 710 520 770 770 800 420 370 510 999 z01x30gm 131 3940 3530 2910 2930 2490 1840 1630 1960 2160 z01x30gm 140 1750 1820 1040 1660 1230 1480 1250 1550 1410 1210 z01x30gm 150 1100 1220 850 1010 1270 840 800 970 940 800 z01x30gm 160 840 890 1080 1430 1290 810 590 650 570 620 z01x30gm 170 640 580 560 490 540 510 510 380 280 260 z01x30gm 180 330 290 400 460 530 520 420 330 420 450 z01x30gm 190 360 360 330 250 290 410 550 510 500 510 z01x30gm 200 520 650 670 520 450 400 280 210 330 450 z01x30gm 210 230 220 200 290 250 300 300 330 320 250 z01x30gm 220 340 260 380 280 410 380 480 470 480 530 z01x30gm 230 500 540 450 400 500 530 400 440 460 610 z01x30gm 240 610 590 680 690 640 520 460 340 480 400 z01x30gm 250 410 210 340 320 280 230 200 130 110 140 z01x30gm 260 160 160 180 170 110 150 130 220 200 150 z01x30gm 270 170 280 270 290 310 290 420 450 420 420 z01x30gm 280 450 570 640 540 430 510 570 520 550 670 z01x30gm 290 550 620 740 500 590 700 760 510 430 540 z01x30gm 300 590 590 510 540 470 370 500 620 560 530 z01x30gm 310 620 470 490 410 460 410 340 400 400 400 z01x30gm 320 450 500 440 400 500 440 380 250 450 360 z01x30gm 330 440 370 430 320 420 340 460 340 330 370 z01x30gm 340 320 370 290 300 430 470 460 530 590 440 z01x30gm 350 540 520 500 550 690 620 440 440 400 340 z01x30gm 360 540 550 590 520 390 200 370 280 330 360 z01x30gm 370 300 360 350 450 490 650 300 600 540 530 z01x30gm 380 710 460 650 690 860 880 1210 999 zar006_m 869 641 zar006_m 870 477 400 498 677 1121 1771 2579 1964 1732 1960 zar006_m 880 2302 2619 2834 3240 2807 3151 3497 3020 3156 2911 zar006_m 890 2520 2543 2684 2626 2433 2376 2007 2306 1645 1943 zar006_m 900 2282 2341 2090 2289 1823 2053 2007 1842 2150 2256 zar006_m 910 1419 1364 1443 1547 1738 1481 1639 1456 1448 1705 zar006_m 920 1493 1416 1403 1431 1147 1103 1338 1309 1547 1425 zar006_m 930 1094 836 1115 1198 1165 1056 1076 926 972 740 zar006_m 940 752 885 952 824 598 682 673 876 1155 1115 zar006_m 950 1259 1501 1228 1335 1081 871 976 811 711 927 zar006_m 960 1056 1013 872 677 871 943 1032 728 600 594 zar006_m 970 1004 606 466 652 635 515 361 308 999 zar007_m 861 1125 1571 1838 1564 1836 1756 1457 1367 1891 zar007_m 870 1717 1597 1742 1618 1160 1607 1547 1106 1428 1532 zar007_m 880 1569 1218 1365 1256 1043 1202 1151 1148 1170 878 zar007_m 890 1065 1209 1456 1116 912 928 533 701 579 730 zar007_m 900 732 827 856 864 669 728 666 441 534 609 zar007_m 910 460 579 856 931 927 910 1083 791 630 791 zar007_m 920 790 671 714 746 650 567 536 625 594 640 zar007_m 930 708 612 728 665 825 756 840 775 667 625 zar007_m 940 629 821 801 762 612 763 722 713 834 839 zar007_m 950 802 884 858 777 630 592 729 664 562 690 zar007_m 960 904 660 617 661 836 848 675 570 725 690 zar007_m 970 834 687 636 628 600 600 554 501 551 657 zar007_m 980 567 601 636 649 683 571 509 582 529 558 zar007_m 990 569 521 401 423 434 338 371 381 451 497 zar007_m1000 386 485 404 510 423 536 509 369 379 334 zar007_m1010 311 304 303 321 228 267 232 345 257 366 zar007_m1020 266 222 305 354 353 385 384 356 417 373 zar007_m1030 491 507 358 349 384 333 385 391 342 360 zar007_m1040 272 231 283 249 305 323 352 373 271 272 zar007_m1050 315 340 999 zar008_m 570 757 796 636 650 613 919 842 575 1133 990 zar008_m 580 684 612 501 599 683 642 794 773 1301 1077 zar008_m 590 1070 1201 702 1181 1043 897 716 648 671 373 zar008_m 600 307 260 361 412 550 588 624 517 579 556 zar008_m 610 421 759 644 663 706 763 663 739 906 1144 zar008_m 620 759 1065 853 609 632 590 490 462 759 755 zar008_m 630 825 931 857 947 1101 953 1192 1443 1517 1086 zar008_m 640 945 1020 1265 779 575 603 545 957 824 516 zar008_m 650 700 830 835 611 832 1391 1102 941 872 766 zar008_m 660 651 657 720 583 577 573 605 587 544 566 zar008_m 670 573 749 666 592 806 771 874 830 753 655 zar008_m 680 524 627 566 626 854 1070 925 579 494 474 zar008_m 690 428 525 531 508 502 999 zar009_m 460 929 1331 2238 2735 2640 2439 2753 240 982 1401 zar009_m 470 1635 1741 1324 1588 1511 1686 1403 1173 1227 1333 zar009_m 480 1330 1575 1134 1545 1322 1447 1077 1580 1410 1408 zar009_m 490 1339 1403 1591 1571 1800 1230 1778 1418 1456 1323 zar009_m 500 1397 1247 1247 1888 1366 1508 1750 1304 1267 1407 zar009_m 510 1321 1300 1575 1320 1225 1280 1128 1230 1424 953 zar009_m 520 1360 1506 1326 1569 1452 1191 929 1043 504 1046 zar009_m 530 1057 962 952 843 890 835 767 728 644 553 zar009_m 540 523 517 507 447 458 277 411 367 448 412 zar009_m 550 566 491 593 584 801 739 740 784 930 816 zar009_m 560 870 541 381 567 429 360 524 623 753 878 zar009_m 570 825 822 861 581 733 717 706 668 798 596 zar009_m 580 635 461 558 547 471 438 573 526 574 545 zar009_m 590 484 460 413 475 409 408 373 413 373 247 zar009_m 600 239 128 221 244 400 423 377 370 429 441 zar009_m 610 467 615 558 662 469 623 623 636 754 958 zar009_m 620 693 860 620 459 481 494 441 485 667 670 zar009_m 630 571 591 637 557 601 543 658 717 737 675 zar009_m 640 561 682 469 448 566 626 534 640 496 474 zar009_m 650 464 593 779 575 624 729 652 671 641 636 zar009_m 660 533 620 699 607 565 592 653 532 511 621 zar009_m 670 572 708 532 513 790 651 820 614 737 635 zar009_m 680 587 754 628 569 567 457 437 377 328 394 zar009_m 690 379 485 420 425 447 554 524 429 535 412 zar009_m 700 351 534 634 609 512 548 416 538 512 482 zar009_m 710 508 624 622 491 470 514 500 494 385 394 zar009_m 720 403 999 zar012_m1109 458 zar012_m1110 584 639 395 622 439 383 395 385 442 422 zar012_m1120 493 492 413 558 573 561 656 602 536 530 zar012_m1130 605 639 699 679 646 705 650 769 617 721 zar012_m1140 708 764 707 810 634 729 683 408 691 694 zar012_m1150 849 690 613 796 740 599 670 679 632 666 zar012_m1160 720 750 709 706 688 774 776 833 790 816 zar012_m1170 781 720 747 905 874 885 894 770 734 736 zar012_m1180 733 716 789 738 705 835 905 657 703 625 zar012_m1190 673 582 729 751 772 725 608 573 616 626 zar012_m1200 619 560 624 808 797 845 797 694 652 749 zar012_m1210 809 796 817 771 734 609 675 742 726 844 zar012_m1220 822 799 806 800 587 802 851 911 755 690 zar012_m1230 636 611 685 666 656 624 529 639 649 729 zar012_m1240 671 709 559 627 553 579 525 536 467 599 zar012_m1250 590 616 599 500 501 499 396 560 529 554 zar012_m1260 599 453 637 626 500 507 682 678 799 655 zar012_m1270 643 601 677 569 542 532 363 441 370 384 zar012_m1280 394 341 365 326 322 290 354 260 351 338 zar012_m1290 333 276 296 240 250 296 278 362 346 322 zar012_m1300 307 316 298 295 278 263 280 319 312 319 zar012_m1310 302 288 298 315 295 266 268 294 289 231 zar012_m1320 261 241 225 238 235 218 225 204 186 169 zar012_m1330 172 121 196 193 199 147 135 155 102 136 zar012_m1340 143 141 109 81 106 76 60 73 64 83 zar012_m1350 81 51 87 57 113 56 99 27 999 zar013_m 397 723 785 494 zar013_m 400 709 815 667 545 601 642 898 669 787 659 zar013_m 410 688 642 837 792 874 771 802 742 744 749 zar013_m 420 727 789 884 785 814 775 821 852 724 849 zar013_m 430 868 703 655 575 627 654 606 670 742 683 zar013_m 440 664 774 840 819 529 589 532 655 451 382 zar013_m 450 511 555 726 648 422 582 653 637 374 358 zar013_m 460 502 524 520 445 480 496 430 356 457 450 zar013_m 470 380 411 411 426 426 427 352 422 404 453 zar013_m 480 444 483 445 514 417 393 368 413 358 370 zar013_m 490 329 305 362 454 481 407 329 368 379 469 zar013_m 500 481 420 410 456 445 456 518 498 466 476 zar013_m 510 392 444 418 362 391 311 256 251 232 204 zar013_m 520 250 388 439 434 443 479 431 311 260 303 zar013_m 530 310 383 381 368 263 319 292 211 188 147 zar013_m 540 201 228 253 240 183 131 157 206 197 187 zar013_m 550 251 240 252 286 347 419 370 211 240 215 zar013_m 560 241 183 195 182 165 164 247 280 279 357 zar013_m 570 332 278 286 322 368 408 397 354 428 374 zar013_m 580 182 300 386 415 341 406 466 442 484 345 zar013_m 590 268 212 193 255 281 225 137 190 126 128 zar013_m 600 107 71 999 zar145_m 814 1500 1145 1225 845 1553 1358 zar145_m 820 1860 1665 1743 1420 1498 1645 1660 1513 1465 1110 zar145_m 830 1375 1293 1255 1365 1318 1380 1328 1465 1465 1708 zar145_m 840 1970 2025 1796 1657 1876 1910 1813 1780 1534 1733 zar145_m 850 1364 1549 1465 1961 1651 1522 1670 1830 2093 1416 zar145_m 860 1400 805 897 1099 1221 1353 1363 1531 1601 1654 zar145_m 870 1649 1477 1543 2016 1718 1650 1337 1135 1053 1236 zar145_m 880 1315 1206 1384 1422 1363 1231 1247 1316 1169 1092 zar145_m 890 1171 1315 1406 1224 1155 1110 772 824 594 822 zar145_m 900 822 829 808 848 666 812 873 722 730 824 zar145_m 910 776 833 905 970 1055 1202 1265 1051 1157 1223 zar145_m 920 1029 811 945 1047 877 839 853 915 1074 1301 zar145_m 930 964 1014 1118 1011 1200 1018 1070 875 879 750 zar145_m 940 792 801 813 761 680 669 764 818 887 914 zar145_m 950 993 1090 1008 897 771 711 837 846 788 952 zar145_m 960 1112 941 969 827 1057 986 902 797 978 814 zar145_m 970 1091 757 861 932 855 836 937 736 904 958 zar145_m 980 808 820 857 948 926 944 831 786 823 799 zar145_m 990 811 755 656 754 735 654 701 614 546 719 zar145_m1000 616 747 617 749 622 685 652 628 663 649 zar145_m1010 655 698 626 777 543 650 577 725 653 774 zar145_m1020 559 563 698 697 670 703 679 674 772 758 zar145_m1030 820 886 725 629 642 546 584 650 603 629 zar145_m1040 566 612 731 653 715 855 1081 1052 788 1007 zar145_m1050 937 771 746 550 613 580 562 650 510 560 zar145_m1060 693 715 667 662 756 712 551 674 690 577 zar145_m1070 592 585 552 591 702 618 679 794 790 626 zar145_m1080 580 613 543 658 591 481 450 526 423 467 zar145_m1090 486 492 512 557 509 467 593 635 532 577 zar145_m1100 532 535 513 410 387 398 286 263 267 317 zar145_m1110 321 379 270 308 277 258 316 302 291 285 zar145_m1120 357 346 322 371 354 320 366 331 319 392 zar145_m1130 366 370 352 351 374 372 373 387 352 412 zar145_m1140 288 292 267 303 267 292 252 202 310 370 zar145_m1150 350 325 283 362 342 270 267 300 322 338 zar145_m1160 380 347 403 352 340 297 298 318 333 383 zar145_m1170 332 363 303 330 310 308 335 360 317 330 zar145_m1180 293 293 352 318 372 400 288 230 260 233 zar145_m1190 243 195 208 240 265 235 170 170 245 260 zar145_m1200 250 205 220 275 205 255 255 225 220 205 zar145_m1210 255 245 225 205 175 140 200 160 170 230 zar145_m1220 230 220 190 180 170 175 999 zts05_m 224 1240 1149 1193 1141 1086 941 zts05_m 230 870 904 851 764 951 717 816 743 797 725 zts05_m 240 1025 967 1182 1031 1031 1291 1408 1495 1382 1293 zts05_m 250 1588 1336 1340 1314 1936 1922 1397 1475 1498 1419 zts05_m 260 1000 1494 1146 1013 822 1077 966 1155 1133 947 zts05_m 270 1171 1484 1329 1268 1168 1335 1584 1190 1110 969 zts05_m 280 1119 1070 951 963 981 998 954 945 1117 1202 zts05_m 290 1058 874 814 720 872 782 901 777 873 905 zts05_m 300 899 1015 959 952 988 1030 1001 971 845 884 zts05_m 310 764 710 810 790 921 679 717 828 781 786 zts05_m 320 660 724 713 714 862 625 649 569 685 623 zts05_m 330 571 557 570 444 456 407 432 495 524 428 zts05_m 340 504 651 617 529 620 524 694 770 712 537 zts05_m 350 665 579 584 668 709 764 680 734 650 650 zts05_m 360 808 814 840 768 674 675 818 908 747 678 zts05_m 370 706 819 822 812 702 894 841 1045 901 1031 zts05_m 380 1082 743 802 716 623 649 660 737 787 806 zts05_m 390 660 675 497 624 492 368 402 597 550 782 zts05_m 400 811 568 692 717 694 558 570 602 567 580 zts05_m 410 519 472 604 466 466 364 481 469 515 523 zts05_m 420 556 470 416 520 480 447 433 456 382 451 zts05_m 430 548 420 583 575 623 544 414 509 483 449 zts05_m 440 468 501 450 452 471 347 389 493 365 371 zts05_m 450 453 388 391 468 684 662 527 515 464 441 zts05_m 460 543 458 411 392 446 473 494 428 496 462 zts05_m 470 385 379 340 287 246 238 223 241 205 230 zts05_m 480 365 350 210 257 258 384 200 250 268 276 zts05_m 490 293 293 267 300 326 240 210 212 186 194 zts05_m 500 145 123 107 165 82 142 150 150 179 203 zts05_m 510 209 177 173 182 140 133 132 185 121 171 zts05_m 520 175 198 205 201 226 218 216 245 114 192 zts05_m 530 253 212 305 293 364 287 193 184 278 292 zts05_m 540 235 180 273 222 278 208 253 265 347 259 zts05_m 550 301 361 521 574 598 819 926 1150 1278 1559 zts05_m 560 1496 1102 979 1216 1053 890 802 987 913 889 zts05_m 570 997 876 880 682 1036 793 681 571 656 592 zts05_m 580 653 605 999 zts08_m 351 1010 797 1294 1159 1196 1070 1115 978 1072 zts08_m 360 1142 1097 929 868 788 710 832 782 647 558 zts08_m 370 634 815 875 1056 747 1161 981 1202 867 952 zts08_m 380 1138 789 844 927 738 815 847 882 791 863 zts08_m 390 717 960 663 736 770 744 670 759 671 764 zts08_m 400 879 703 732 797 886 676 781 858 748 696 zts08_m 410 817 846 994 670 622 578 737 712 751 741 zts08_m 420 894 758 563 577 649 608 464 449 559 708 zts08_m 430 987 617 766 795 711 594 433 530 561 658 zts08_m 440 999 zts14_m 158 1905 2127 zts14_m 160 1816 1779 2077 2174 1985 1521 1818 1722 1684 1733 zts14_m 170 1952 1767 1530 1188 1067 1221 1390 1718 1570 1324 zts14_m 180 1699 1715 1710 2006 2143 2145 2026 1707 1958 2432 zts14_m 190 2614 2748 2394 2440 2184 2177 2291 2554 1827 2210 zts14_m 200 1841 1580 1625 1388 1440 1821 1854 1669 1647 1938 zts14_m 210 1685 2069 2346 2048 1895 2376 2264 1789 1639 1437 zts14_m 220 1684 1287 1971 1840 1892 2361 2273 1804 1847 1712 zts14_m 230 1849 1923 1813 1807 2142 2216 1838 1593 1486 1651 zts14_m 240 1846 1555 1918 1494 1389 1853 1542 1663 1800 2044 zts14_m 250 1693 1265 1419 1581 1663 1601 1351 1361 1314 1275 zts14_m 260 1052 1399 1325 1024 1047 1366 1213 1201 1135 855 zts14_m 270 1152 848 883 981 1048 998 1289 1125 1025 1048 zts14_m 280 1130 1314 1218 1108 1103 1183 1129 1004 1117 1333 zts14_m 290 1185 994 961 904 1245 1116 1095 1045 962 1001 zts14_m 300 873 857 851 816 867 828 898 962 842 1030 zts14_m 310 905 800 980 923 1015 908 1008 1073 1347 1122 zts14_m 320 988 840 733 851 1122 910 999 zts22_m 291 1167 1328 937 942 1027 1285 1148 951 948 zts22_m 300 1013 924 849 762 818 668 886 740 577 528 zts22_m 310 611 659 551 636 672 635 535 675 640 659 zts22_m 320 461 467 548 438 556 470 351 350 451 462 zts22_m 330 497 554 530 457 520 455 565 662 466 459 zts22_m 340 434 607 454 472 507 580 606 663 647 477 zts22_m 350 571 577 578 797 676 653 476 505 531 522 zts22_m 360 518 627 630 506 476 436 557 558 602 559 zts22_m 370 535 668 570 540 549 637 467 594 512 621 zts22_m 380 536 433 540 490 390 421 450 570 355 435 zts22_m 390 355 430 442 410 360 393 299 393 357 406 zts22_m 400 511 365 378 401 381 419 407 417 342 446 zts22_m 410 337 349 457 339 353 269 392 359 357 365 zts22_m 420 488 465 404 387 363 379 364 346 370 463 zts22_m 430 511 483 502 585 597 673 453 588 582 476 zts22_m 440 508 385 455 474 458 304 406 475 389 391 zts22_m 450 501 353 341 430 404 323 363 421 349 401 zts22_m 460 530 455 459 556 446 493 492 449 477 511 zts22_m 470 470 452 411 455 368 423 395 443 412 340 zts22_m 480 489 417 381 313 999 zts23_m 1034 1937 1728 1743 2097 1576 2174 zts23_m 1040 1989 2125 1886 1599 2187 1973 2130 1956 2036 2072 zts23_m 1050 1905 1479 1376 1384 1260 1837 1726 1960 1539 1575 zts23_m 1060 1602 1240 976 1021 1159 1251 876 1263 1279 1166 zts23_m 1070 1101 1122 959 1005 894 885 849 835 736 783 zts23_m 1080 920 874 686 701 618 548 577 464 405 418 zts23_m 1090 362 411 392 350 379 311 361 359 324 332 zts23_m 1100 275 257 269 217 225 261 223 242 255 221 zts23_m 1110 285 266 173 190 213 179 147 116 125 110 zts23_m 1120 118 96 135 170 172 181 229 220 223 218 zts23_m 1130 234 219 207 207 201 262 261 295 327 292 zts23_m 1140 314 292 293 286 305 363 360 293 353 362 zts23_m 1150 406 339 330 455 433 438 401 470 447 526 zts23_m 1160 574 596 603 577 478 455 398 378 510 496 zts23_m 1170 487 370 395 295 198 218 226 284 279 292 zts23_m 1180 257 170 219 223 260 303 327 269 268 276 zts23_m 1190 260 258 336 307 329 301 293 284 241 250 zts23_m 1200 203 236 222 294 215 235 257 207 232 299 zts23_m 1210 301 276 261 291 269 274 281 329 304 342 zts23_m 1220 329 310 315 253 275 342 341 233 255 279 zts23_m 1230 306 258 222 244 246 313 336 427 565 518 zts23_m 1240 460 568 483 652 542 559 616 697 610 522 zts23_m 1250 440 582 530 471 446 678 540 516 552 588 zts23_m 1260 559 353 528 400 379 346 365 319 337 378 zts23_m 1270 307 999 zts25_km1023 1150 1216 1715 1814 1364 1493 1054 zts25_km1030 1502 1555 992 1044 945 1126 957 1016 901 926 zts25_km1040 1017 1403 1505 1226 1803 1552 1200 1042 873 822 zts25_km1050 767 696 874 607 495 480 576 851 773 955 zts25_km1060 1139 1103 1181 868 1017 939 1020 1062 898 941 zts25_km1070 721 756 641 752 683 749 671 782 989 850 zts25_km1080 896 1043 794 965 899 1082 1056 1169 824 987 zts25_km1090 852 1041 981 1001 920 1003 1041 1072 940 1037 zts25_km1100 1100 998 1082 816 736 641 576 537 658 446 zts25_km1110 480 335 315 286 206 195 217 298 416 444 zts25_km1120 423 373 402 346 358 508 381 511 611 557 zts25_km1130 625 532 451 554 547 622 532 534 485 587 zts25_km1140 504 410 406 360 302 336 428 286 366 376 zts25_km1150 437 354 463 609 538 533 554 617 585 858 zts25_km1160 1340 1629 1166 1229 990 968 712 776 877 898 zts25_km1170 984 1200 1484 1460 929 849 1051 1031 917 904 zts25_km1180 931 1154 914 1108 1395 1627 1135 1295 1347 1587 zts25_km1190 1210 915 1020 816 807 914 678 638 795 974 zts25_km1200 1605 1545 1322 1748 999 zts27_m 195 1072 927 864 762 350 zts27_m 200 397 502 543 590 562 197 325 393 213 370 zts27_m 210 377 432 514 710 623 475 489 648 574 550 zts27_m 220 828 519 638 567 683 628 654 514 689 756 zts27_m 230 660 586 475 590 560 383 392 391 468 490 zts27_m 240 621 608 712 600 624 682 629 626 509 569 zts27_m 250 605 528 717 654 630 913 916 787 677 729 zts27_m 260 565 1056 680 439 351 442 446 539 456 337 zts27_m 270 419 451 435 417 503 807 709 545 476 464 zts27_m 280 596 866 987 871 715 679 574 617 535 525 zts27_m 290 503 410 384 444 485 518 695 604 610 618 zts27_m 300 681 686 577 540 620 619 555 619 523 731 zts27_m 310 580 592 631 570 609 593 501 479 481 520 zts27_m 320 464 444 432 385 548 328 308 263 315 295 zts27_m 330 277 346 310 290 331 319 382 387 339 338 zts27_m 340 496 557 578 571 526 540 468 564 416 338 zts27_m 350 438 527 530 999 zts35_m 1470 1424 1405 1719 1549 1795 1827 2196 2080 1934 2606 zts35_m 1480 2002 1745 1844 1801 2287 1656 1721 1850 1760 1694 zts35_m 1490 1632 1657 1569 1486 1489 1491 1627 1254 1780 2237 zts35_m 1500 2022 1781 2686 2356 1892 2502 1842 2032 2327 2139 zts35_m 1510 2266 1756 2697 1595 1766 1370 1798 1546 1834 1751 zts35_m 1520 1494 1553 1543 1087 1416 1439 1505 1591 1636 1414 zts35_m 1530 1628 1629 1360 1381 1384 1893 1392 1947 1787 1962 zts35_m 1540 1518 1202 1009 1242 1491 1422 1554 1941 1819 1584 zts35_m 1550 1463 1759 1789 1946 1688 1553 1939 2018 2156 1788 zts35_m 1560 1257 1620 1627 1327 1410 1571 1513 1455 1879 1758 zts35_m 1570 1670 1764 2000 1788 1617 1918 1661 1239 1540 1517 zts35_m 1580 1670 1907 1851 1935 1637 1624 1937 1836 1060 1441 zts35_m 1590 1529 1003 947 971 852 825 835 812 764 743 zts35_m 1600 742 573 529 753 1112 970 720 581 700 436 zts35_m 1610 650 675 548 610 518 566 661 491 373 416 zts35_m 1620 444 492 457 483 521 568 463 539 384 362 zts35_m 1630 375 351 326 369 396 393 504 425 501 415 zts35_m 1640 999 zts39_m 78 1545 1205 zts39_m 80 692 684 348 605 819 887 928 1065 1204 1570 zts39_m 90 650 747 570 593 655 499 638 519 1206 513 zts39_m 100 391 513 336 362 646 379 516 500 639 507 zts39_m 110 544 633 577 475 612 483 553 565 520 403 zts39_m 120 335 430 356 394 388 568 558 573 650 561 zts39_m 130 629 691 682 583 718 753 668 735 872 795 zts39_m 140 839 827 665 719 533 726 678 697 527 700 zts39_m 150 566 646 577 557 796 676 548 565 566 451 zts39_m 160 529 536 429 503 433 482 365 442 386 372 zts39_m 170 432 380 307 350 340 410 346 312 317 306 zts39_m 180 369 428 408 386 423 452 411 348 340 506 zts39_m 190 536 506 556 524 566 660 560 497 455 444 zts39_m 200 394 331 378 413 457 478 501 542 558 655 zts39_m 210 464 565 657 719 571 530 544 520 382 306 zts39_m 220 358 334 422 396 364 430 525 430 353 286 zts39_m 230 313 390 308 399 460 471 380 392 352 322 zts39_m 240 345 290 334 316 224 305 360 321 360 399 zts39_m 250 416 314 396 437 456 507 562 555 286 305 zts39_m 260 317 459 328 273 229 282 224 176 192 165 zts39_m 270 207 217 201 256 273 224 325 227 223 220 zts39_m 280 198 220 235 176 199 208 170 140 189 194 zts39_m 290 162 185 196 169 231 246 254 276 252 217 zts39_m 300 172 172 225 223 271 214 247 207 157 252 zts39_m 310 187 227 233 232 196 204 163 125 163 174 zts39_m 320 174 197 213 231 206 227 176 173 222 177 zts39_m 330 199 209 182 119 156 159 175 183 154 173 zts39_m 340 182 220 193 209 206 191 195 248 236 158 zts39_m 350 195 214 217 219 263 283 253 203 220 184 zts39_m 360 218 223 208 179 138 149 193 167 122 138 zts39_m 370 132 182 170 170 162 200 149 162 160 228 zts39_m 380 228 221 167 150 141 135 141 161 162 138 zts39_m 390 144 158 159 223 198 999 zts40_m 993 391 329 400 341 380 312 352 zts40_m 1000 327 396 310 338 270 365 293 321 623 549 zts40_m 1010 573 505 485 445 354 415 363 485 409 449 zts40_m 1020 296 439 555 573 528 563 626 634 507 315 zts40_m 1030 486 741 450 613 592 592 436 435 434 448 zts40_m 1040 447 567 477 351 475 438 486 447 406 419 zts40_m 1050 481 402 443 358 407 343 359 374 407 449 zts40_m 1060 493 574 582 460 601 546 450 546 441 474 zts40_m 1070 465 453 470 645 590 606 515 463 550 420 zts40_m 1080 383 426 393 605 702 1062 898 699 634 724 zts40_m 1090 548 656 591 739 451 524 508 661 502 588 zts40_m 1100 586 634 679 603 485 489 529 353 429 405 zts40_m 1110 449 335 223 307 253 425 433 635 1094 1073 zts40_m 1120 996 780 928 843 993 1495 914 892 861 656 zts40_m 1130 828 654 551 583 532 644 708 728 757 700 zts40_m 1140 558 570 711 660 458 505 542 257 420 546 zts40_m 1150 397 244 393 515 473 549 456 440 544 784 zts40_m 1160 1042 1126 851 779 777 779 583 487 430 412 zts40_m 1170 432 331 246 334 169 277 277 245 198 105 zts40_m 1180 238 325 351 289 458 383 445 562 556 772 zts40_m 1190 706 532 571 380 367 368 318 474 999 zts42_m 1015 901 900 547 497 778 zts42_m 1020 117 259 467 472 673 835 754 855 1038 812 zts42_m 1030 1130 1106 1011 1045 1032 775 947 924 590 889 zts42_m 1040 948 791 1029 790 810 793 714 679 745 759 zts42_m 1050 788 674 648 524 530 638 664 656 565 705 zts42_m 1060 756 725 675 629 634 672 447 647 402 339 zts42_m 1070 401 610 634 582 500 635 706 659 636 649 zts42_m 1080 693 729 631 610 650 634 646 649 673 683 zts42_m 1090 583 637 658 658 587 454 642 766 698 691 zts42_m 1100 662 610 545 525 339 339 277 290 258 282 zts42_m 1110 271 200 95 204 229 279 369 395 496 552 zts42_m 1120 494 389 357 554 466 526 576 562 525 377 zts42_m 1130 489 561 575 552 573 671 658 787 665 652 zts42_m 1140 610 475 449 430 365 379 492 333 485 612 zts42_m 1150 627 498 453 776 705 720 558 599 621 666 zts42_m 1160 913 1215 853 811 645 521 368 328 325 326 zts42_m 1170 278 273 248 227 147 203 220 259 267 317 zts42_m 1180 335 348 414 374 463 428 436 324 319 466 zts42_m 1190 404 289 334 358 398 399 307 313 330 266 zts42_m 1200 284 222 190 308 344 392 461 360 362 306 zts42_m 1210 322 369 307 328 327 373 400 307 266 247 zts42_m 1220 999 zts43_m 860 691 822 865 974 1213 978 763 931 811 1026 zts43_m 870 1048 945 1315 1184 847 1141 1029 901 1435 1355 zts43_m 880 1360 1359 1389 1220 1126 1205 1164 1048 1083 1213 zts43_m 890 1238 860 1084 822 956 729 693 1107 957 809 zts43_m 900 751 851 832 715 905 944 787 467 729 686 zts43_m 910 617 514 717 639 824 873 916 858 760 734 zts43_m 920 717 710 786 800 772 770 828 651 1012 974 zts43_m 930 796 901 879 845 688 621 700 562 546 522 zts43_m 940 307 652 599 675 621 835 858 784 845 780 zts43_m 950 663 792 589 589 475 493 783 548 539 500 zts43_m 960 551 559 548 508 544 618 559 401 501 487 zts43_m 970 565 423 392 344 375 308 375 472 448 490 zts43_m 980 402 391 387 403 402 380 410 378 319 357 zts43_m 990 338 382 287 465 405 413 433 391 329 435 zts43_m 1000 331 412 400 404 297 436 310 241 439 345 zts43_m 1010 395 351 383 384 325 419 379 483 437 495 zts43_m 1020 250 205 233 373 343 427 558 508 999 zts44_m 1028 858 1017 zts44_m 1030 772 627 1133 958 1163 1022 1007 1218 1125 1262 zts44_m 1040 1161 1244 1248 1191 1417 1217 1253 1320 1179 1354 zts44_m 1050 1343 1094 1205 995 970 1037 1030 1233 993 1175 zts44_m 1060 1183 1075 1084 1097 1150 1269 1030 1116 1090 1129 zts44_m 1070 1231 1176 865 1027 1023 713 931 795 841 768 zts44_m 1080 710 892 772 920 886 957 982 881 868 888 zts44_m 1090 715 894 843 918 797 643 715 840 662 805 zts44_m 1100 829 760 765 745 710 726 849 747 776 761 zts44_m 1110 687 617 421 468 364 346 324 413 465 463 zts44_m 1120 562 503 542 661 607 554 589 587 530 453 zts44_m 1130 529 534 542 581 615 615 539 576 535 558 zts44_m 1140 481 520 553 582 542 613 621 427 517 629 zts44_m 1150 526 391 399 604 594 592 551 530 486 503 zts44_m 1160 578 621 483 586 504 529 510 390 409 448 zts44_m 1170 507 397 415 370 264 288 399 359 315 287 zts44_m 1180 332 331 356 357 343 419 366 347 313 308 zts44_m 1190 240 303 303 302 344 370 284 277 292 262 zts44_m 1200 284 298 250 332 295 350 415 328 332 287 zts44_m 1210 346 360 303 304 265 242 298 312 303 308 zts44_m 1220 277 308 279 292 246 373 283 237 260 325 zts44_m 1230 335 248 267 262 270 312 268 315 395 489 zts44_m 1240 501 590 506 573 471 534 648 595 459 999 zts45_m 1026 1576 1830 1423 991 zts45_m 1030 957 1699 1186 1486 1605 1413 1537 2172 1497 1657 zts45_m 1040 1419 1682 1996 1599 1639 1560 1512 1711 1329 1215 zts45_m 1050 1209 1067 1011 945 926 1092 1102 1274 1072 1294 zts45_m 1060 1220 1184 1169 1138 1246 1314 1097 1317 1242 1235 zts45_m 1070 1206 1152 882 1202 1172 783 1045 1062 1010 973 zts45_m 1080 930 1126 1013 1022 974 1057 1070 1043 908 929 zts45_m 1090 876 918 885 1073 847 701 755 842 672 827 zts45_m 1100 892 724 806 743 671 645 772 699 659 792 zts45_m 1110 638 645 448 459 320 339 312 379 475 456 zts45_m 1120 560 473 617 639 567 605 564 534 574 440 zts45_m 1130 479 518 502 574 588 607 508 652 550 631 zts45_m 1140 669 591 571 683 624 680 681 484 598 735 zts45_m 1150 593 439 468 703 671 693 634 586 603 573 zts45_m 1160 690 722 514 647 585 510 505 422 413 433 zts45_m 1170 505 400 347 450 284 317 459 467 353 374 zts45_m 1180 337 392 357 362 373 507 511 400 999 zts46_m 951 1070 1083 1230 1220 1342 1323 1353 1576 2218 zts46_m 960 1633 805 1179 932 1227 942 893 869 925 702 zts46_m 970 844 627 645 940 1754 1354 878 844 760 714 zts46_m 980 712 682 737 773 833 953 882 828 938 962 zts46_m 990 935 1017 953 1071 1095 867 1152 1102 1091 1363 zts46_m 1000 1089 1005 1113 1129 883 1126 875 640 762 900 zts46_m 1010 980 960 827 868 615 748 739 947 848 929 zts46_m 1020 607 601 941 1073 1026 862 793 802 833 611 zts46_m 1030 932 969 745 758 674 641 688 742 729 668 zts46_m 1040 806 818 735 716 977 728 787 679 665 728 zts46_m 1050 659 564 674 602 560 634 496 576 464 555 zts46_m 1060 593 517 557 519 520 530 389 561 512 463 zts46_m 1070 442 408 442 999 zts47_m 950 1548 1215 1166 1166 1421 1852 1381 1614 1403 1645 zts47_m 960 1796 1137 1611 1158 1260 1220 1137 1024 1283 1105 zts47_m 970 1261 871 984 1029 974 1060 1022 906 746 860 zts47_m 980 839 860 636 824 777 964 878 768 889 856 zts47_m 990 771 887 849 923 937 924 932 1091 988 1444 zts47_m 1000 1131 1018 1026 1024 738 891 713 501 801 920 zts47_m 1010 742 1007 896 912 668 913 820 1039 845 1016 zts47_m 1020 609 860 1084 1117 1107 968 872 1054 1096 743 zts47_m 1030 1055 1092 787 858 844 793 899 1038 914 866 zts47_m 1040 825 980 944 791 1012 813 904 1043 871 960 zts47_m 1050 1017 842 1069 806 631 688 562 699 649 842 zts47_m 1060 938 917 924 855 956 903 746 842 820 714 zts47_m 1070 638 635 639 744 495 333 515 448 476 512 zts47_m 1080 478 597 581 688 554 573 560 505 407 657 zts47_m 1090 431 576 433 534 467 418 510 528 438 563 zts47_m 1100 525 483 538 477 441 498 470 465 466 547 zts47_m 1110 512 518 291 359 382 403 370 365 339 333 zts47_m 1120 240 213 222 298 427 594 355 394 520 379 zts47_m 1130 378 278 186 245 370 273 228 327 405 483 zts47_m 1140 464 308 402 449 344 367 330 205 338 372 zts47_m 1150 313 209 208 283 273 399 462 999 zts48_m 919 487 zts48_m 920 837 320 703 648 550 567 1322 1036 794 766 zts48_m 930 950 780 582 892 538 483 801 518 571 536 zts48_m 940 531 457 381 485 470 500 611 689 661 715 zts48_m 950 905 850 651 652 716 859 970 707 711 760 zts48_m 960 632 608 581 552 512 530 476 582 686 476 zts48_m 970 506 376 385 372 536 650 603 620 439 585 zts48_m 980 564 525 431 496 597 609 623 703 774 678 zts48_m 990 567 687 677 823 792 795 772 856 787 1022 zts48_m 1000 922 843 1052 933 895 1233 967 721 996 969 zts48_m 1010 878 1065 954 906 825 914 781 909 869 774 zts48_m 1020 495 597 741 842 819 660 704 787 919 712 zts48_m 1030 1060 1361 963 1007 952 1020 1040 1042 864 801 zts48_m 1040 937 1075 767 539 855 823 855 978 957 912 zts48_m 1050 1027 1147 1216 920 999 zts49_m 975 1566 643 905 501 1411 zts49_m 980 536 1428 421 1229 614 897 1173 1216 1291 1067 zts49_m 990 1202 1170 904 1051 724 410 780 622 684 822 zts49_m 1000 585 536 614 733 640 676 713 553 696 752 zts49_m 1010 709 770 649 718 548 739 714 1046 932 1303 zts49_m 1020 738 1062 1186 1105 1044 948 936 904 956 703 zts49_m 1030 1117 1178 747 830 768 766 752 844 767 767 zts49_m 1040 786 881 859 752 994 749 648 718 639 754 zts49_m 1050 928 707 751 658 543 687 573 685 657 735 zts49_m 1060 812 817 796 774 776 667 629 744 699 623 zts49_m 1070 550 538 545 552 488 317 433 510 438 451 zts49_m 1080 398 501 404 417 468 495 491 379 410 451 zts49_m 1090 394 460 384 417 360 304 366 472 429 440 zts49_m 1100 384 366 375 377 375 456 350 300 272 335 zts49_m 1110 322 334 264 266 250 258 243 221 223 204 zts49_m 1120 999 zts51_m 848 2568 2379 zts51_m 850 3100 3243 3099 2842 2758 1872 2043 1883 2278 1642 zts51_m 860 1937 1988 1954 1779 2076 2147 1639 2410 2202 1998 zts51_m 870 1906 1832 2072 1843 1922 1912 1816 1448 1832 1628 zts51_m 880 1884 1576 1625 1544 1436 1572 1669 1600 1452 1531 zts51_m 890 1206 1248 1326 1208 1248 1074 826 1408 1194 824 zts51_m 900 849 1060 873 916 976 1116 1108 813 861 902 zts51_m 910 633 666 851 798 960 853 879 1016 694 942 zts51_m 920 826 857 891 885 875 920 895 800 856 783 zts51_m 930 735 737 857 907 872 895 810 786 761 760 zts51_m 940 633 977 806 777 706 800 864 678 894 821 zts51_m 950 724 760 657 553 471 512 583 559 545 594 zts51_m 960 683 654 487 562 631 641 655 490 512 589 zts51_m 970 587 470 563 579 510 457 567 563 611 644 zts51_m 980 500 616 653 636 634 700 654 632 566 539 zts51_m 990 585 655 626 756 707 769 561 582 530 643 zts51_m 1000 576 710 578 587 465 571 442 298 610 408 zts51_m 1010 504 543 532 509 469 535 461 526 531 482 zts51_m 1020 357 257 322 401 377 406 506 551 537 435 zts51_m 1030 647 797 708 703 791 689 834 851 803 789 zts51_m 1040 809 926 789 582 736 678 774 708 754 832 zts51_m 1050 723 677 937 842 608 613 643 682 614 736 zts51_m 1060 778 827 751 706 837 658 537 519 504 501 zts51_m 1070 452 381 371 382 387 381 310 316 310 299 zts51_m 1080 257 365 321 488 442 324 295 417 313 398 zts51_m 1090 999 zts52_m 1623 646 792 659 792 447 268 336 zts52_m 1630 245 360 366 286 346 466 796 825 1063 844 zts52_m 1640 1006 789 910 1072 1025 1080 1142 961 1338 1727 zts52_m 1650 1211 822 1356 1022 1124 1168 1398 1241 769 1364 zts52_m 1660 1421 1811 2252 1530 1578 1499 1679 1573 1220 854 zts52_m 1670 782 826 876 1153 1082 756 1200 837 712 853 zts52_m 1680 918 1094 1420 1862 1769 1396 1886 1851 1524 1516 zts52_m 1690 1896 1679 1475 1140 824 688 847 894 905 384 zts52_m 1700 360 177 340 344 349 405 468 490 445 659 zts52_m 1710 750 790 731 730 572 444 264 159 165 217 zts52_m 1720 399 300 236 201 197 259 331 257 312 235 zts52_m 1730 227 272 152 374 408 358 399 999 zts53_m 298 990 804 zts53_m 300 563 585 385 650 455 502 690 554 539 453 zts53_m 310 725 788 651 721 646 688 433 654 643 438 zts53_m 320 673 800 789 592 932 952 450 419 401 293 zts53_m 330 336 387 280 235 352 218 338 353 290 276 zts53_m 340 205 187 218 266 264 294 397 471 425 307 zts53_m 350 313 216 261 221 219 268 221 170 250 285 zts53_m 360 142 267 301 372 275 178 297 212 188 170 zts53_m 370 185 360 320 444 315 500 120 432 317 229 zts53_m 380 314 279 315 231 178 380 268 377 264 224 zts53_m 390 225 314 121 230 182 212 250 230 220 211 zts53_m 400 211 195 264 216 257 321 247 412 291 298 zts53_m 410 245 285 314 250 161 224 289 287 265 245 zts53_m 420 348 242 275 224 267 286 171 153 215 290 zts53_m 430 303 179 306 273 239 250 179 334 350 276 zts53_m 440 373 331 393 323 307 184 250 218 208 205 zts53_m 450 336 174 89 235 188 205 220 253 219 203 zts53_m 460 203 184 151 200 176 218 210 999 zts54_m 192 1596 1378 1531 1465 1536 1630 1358 1201 zts54_m 200 1086 934 914 827 1000 832 875 792 1045 1312 zts54_m 210 738 1170 1321 1143 1025 1158 928 746 691 634 zts54_m 220 639 604 756 686 725 833 934 548 707 600 zts54_m 230 568 664 617 421 538 453 477 470 456 479 zts54_m 240 615 479 686 835 714 825 908 964 1071 1021 zts54_m 250 909 768 849 819 925 1106 1133 1136 1088 1079 zts54_m 260 749 1108 965 766 616 647 544 616 554 444 zts54_m 270 518 607 560 653 645 822 773 723 857 855 zts54_m 280 918 962 814 843 743 719 765 754 788 836 zts54_m 290 662 646 678 669 729 802 951 800 754 714 zts54_m 300 704 798 600 554 640 714 705 728 684 726 zts54_m 310 684 728 673 686 625 696 547 605 587 635 zts54_m 320 503 487 505 442 538 516 512 418 487 452 zts54_m 330 572 628 494 362 467 436 538 466 395 405 zts54_m 340 427 517 512 465 420 449 505 492 529 393 zts54_m 350 440 364 432 573 543 430 432 388 443 396 zts54_m 360 477 458 478 343 385 302 371 404 385 999 3296. 2005-04-18 08:01:43 ______________________________________________________ cc: "francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca" date: Mon Apr 18 08:01:43 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Global warming to: Francis Zwiers , "Fudge, Dennis WLAP:EX" Dennis, Hopefully Francis' colleague will be able to answer. I am also not qualified to answer. Cheers Phil At 21:16 15/04/2005, Francis Zwiers wrote: Hi Dennis, I do not have the expertise to respond to this question, but I will pass it onto a colleague (an expert on aerosols) who may be able to respond. Cheers, Francis At 14:07 14/04/2005, Fudge, Dennis WLAP:EX wrote: Sorry to bother you, considering your positions, but I thought if anyone had an answer for this, you two would be the best bet. The following web pages are articles on the transport of black soot to the arctic which melts the snow and causes global warming, in which I assume you are already aware of this event. [1]http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/arctic_soot.html [2]http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412/article-59690.html Now the question of the day..... Does this black soot increase or decrease the rate of fresh snow melting? Based on what you were learn in school this answer is quite obvious. But, the albedo of the ultraviolet light on fresh snow is high, and low for infrared/microwaves. Based on Oke, 1987, a reverse exist for soil and vegetation. Which is responsible for melting snow, short waves or long waves? Also, the top portion of soot on top of the snow only heats up (I believe soot has a low conductivity) and that heat may rise into the air rather than being transfer to the snow. I am not certain how efficient that would be when dealing with very fine particles. During the spring, I have seen black particles on snow but the clean snow surrounding it seem to be melting faster. Polar bears, arctic foxes and many other resident arctic and Antarctic animals have white coats. They actually absorb more heat from the sun and surrounding environment than darker-colored objects. Which could be due to microwaves generating more heat than ultraviolet wavelengths. Oke also stated that the maximum absorption of radiation is just below the surface during the day which would be the site of maximum heating and highest temperature. Coating the surface with fine soot may interfere with this heating. Most people don't question this because it seems too obvious to question (Black surface in the summer is hotter than a white surface). Perhaps at high solar radiation intensity the short waves are the dominant factor and at low solar radiation the infrared is the dominant factor. I am not saying that this theory is correct but it may be worth looking at further, if it have not already been examined. Dennis Fudge Air Pollution Meteorologist Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection 250-565-4210 If you woke up breathing, congratulations! You have another chance! ___________________________________________________________ Francis Zwiers, Chief Canadian Ctr for Climate Modelling and Analysis Meteorological Service of Canada c/o University of Victoria PO Box 1700, STN CSC Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Phone: (250)363-8229 Fax: (250)363-8247 Web: [3]http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5266. 2005-04-18 08:40:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Apr 18 08:40:45 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Villach, 1985 to: pearcefred Fred, Been away. I do remember the Villach meeting. There was the US Dept of Energy State of the Art reports in 1982 that Bill Clark edited, so Villach wasn't the first. Also IPCC may not have happened if WMO had taken the issue seriously in the mid-1980s. I was much younger then, so hope that Bert Bolin knows more as to what the driving force behind IPCC was. Cheers Phil At 17:10 12/04/2005, you wrote: Apologies for writing to you as a group. I am interested in proposing to the New Scientist editors the idea of a feature in our Histories slot about the Villach 1985 conference on climate change. I was not writing about climate change for New Scientist at that time, though I was commissioning John Gribbin on the topic. But my memory is that Villach for the first time laid out the science of climate change in a coherent way for an international audience. Without it perhaps there would not have been the 1989 Toronto meeting, the IPCC or the UNFCCC. And certainly looking at the SCOPE book of the conference again, it seems that remarkably little has changed in the central IPCC analysis to this day. I wonder if each of you would agree with this interpretation. Would it perhaps be interesting to write about "the week they invented climate change". And would you be willing eventually to offer your memories of that meeting? The subtext here is to address the quite common public perception today that nobody was talking about the greenhouse effect until the recent run of very warm years and that in some sense, the science was invented to explain the phenomenon. Thanks for your time. Regards Fred Pearce New Scientist Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2177. 2005-04-18 17:00:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Apr 18 17:00:57 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: News about GPCC to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, Sent to all our LAs and Aiguo Dai, but foolishly added the h to yours as I typed your email in rather than copying and pasting ! Cheers Phil Dear All, I've been slowly reading through the comments. I noted some on our use of precip datasets, particularly one by Aiguo Dai and the GPCC. It is true that they don't make their precip data sources available, but they have signed agreements to not pass the original data onto others. They have recently released several versions of their gridded datasets, which we should probably use in section 3.3 in some way. It is easiest to download directly from [1]http://gpcc.dwd.de and look for VASClimO. At least from 1951 this is likely the best source of land-based precip data to use. I say best only in the sense that it uses more stations than any others. Cheers Phil From: Rudolf Bruno To: 'Hans Teunissen' , m.manton@bom.gov.au, Makoto Suzuki , parkin@essic.umd.edu, Johannes Schmetz , Raino Heino , Raphael Okoola , David Parker , Kazutoshi Onogi , Ed Harrison , Mitch Goldberg , Thomas.C.Peterson@noaa.gov, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, Alan Thomas , Stephan Bojinski Subject: News about GPCC Date: Tue, 15 Mar 2005 13:22:12 +0100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Dear colleagues, dear friends I'm very glad to inform you about some outstanding news: 1) New Visualizer and Download ULRs: [2]http://orias.dwd.de/GPCC/GPCC_Visualizer [3]ftp://ftp.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/download.html The Visualizer has been re-designed and tranfered to a new platform. The tool is much faster now. Attention: The old ULR has been switched off. So change your bookmarks! All links to the old one will not work anymore. You can still access the Visualizer via GPCC's Website alias address [4]http://gpcc.dwd.de 2) Two new analysis products are available from the GPCC now: - a new 50-year Precipitation Climatology 1951-2000 optimized for homogeneity in time - Version 3 of the Full Data Product 1951-2004 optimized for best spatial coverage The first version of our climatological analyses is based on (mostly) complete and homogeneous time-series from observations at 9343 selected stations. It provides precipitation totals and the interpolation error (jackknife) for the 600 individual months (1951-2000). The gridded data (0.5 degree), format descripition and an introduction (pdf) is accessible via GPCC's Website [5]http://gpcc.dwd.de Go from there to the side menu item "VASClimO". Version 3 of the Full Data Product 1951-2004 includes the maximum number of stations for each individual month. The best covered period is from 1986 to 1990 (with about 40,000 stations). The number of stations gradually decreases after 1991 douwn to the basis of our near real-time Monitoring Product. Before 1986 the number of stations is between 10,000 and 15,000 as the attached figure illustrades. 3) Change of GPCC's affiliation within the DWD organisation The full GPCC has moved from the department for Climatology to the department for Hydrometeorology. That will not change GPCC's activities. For my person: For the next time I have to cover 2 jobs, the lead of the GPCC as well as of another division within this department. So, be patient with me, if I will not react immediately. Looking forward to a further good cooperation. With best regards, Bruno Rudolf ------------------------------------------ Dr. Bruno Rudolf Global Precipitation Climatology Centre c/o Deutscher Wetterdienst P.O. Box 10 04 65 63004 Offenbach am Main Germany Office: Kaiserleistr. 44, Room 214 Tel.: +49 - 69 - 8062 2765 Fax: +49 - 69 - 8062 3759 email: bruno.rudolf@dwd.de Web: [6]http://gpcc.dwd.de ------------------------------------------ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4395. 2005-04-19 16:12:38 ______________________________________________________ cc: David Parker , Brian Soden , Susan Solomon , Martin Manning , "'David R. Easterling'" date: Tue Apr 19 16:12:38 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Chapter 3.4.1 to: "Parker, David (Met Office)" , Kevin Trenberth Kevin, I plan to look through your 3.4.1 draft tomorrow or later this week. At the same time I also plan to have a go at section 3.2. David has sent me some new figures and there are two new papers to add in. I am having difficulty finding some quality time at the moment, but hope this will come later this week. I did read all the CCSP report. The review group are having a conf call tomorrow on this, but they have chosen your afternoon, so I can't take part. There were 6 reviewers of the review and one other almost wrote as much as you. Most were positive on the review saying that the report authors have a lot to do, particularly for Chapters 1 and 6. How all this pans out is impossible to tell. The next meeting of the authors is being scheduled for the week after Beijing. I agree some of their figures are useful, but I too doubt whether we will have much useful for the FOD we have to write. We will likely be doing them in parallel - which is hardly ideal. I wouldn't send our 3.4.1 to Tom at this time - at least wait till Brian, David and I have been through yours. Also I wouldn't want Tom passing it on to the CCSP VTT authors. I think they will have a lot of hard thinking when they get the NRC review, to worry too much about what we're doing. We do need to have our chapter and their report meshing at some time, but this might have to wait till the SOD (by which time their report might be finished). Cheers Phil At 17:35 18/04/2005, Parker, David (Met Office) wrote: Kevin Thanks. You have saved me some work because on my journey back from Geneva I also studied the comments on 3.4.1 (on paper) and was considering making an electronic revised section. I came to the conclusion that 3.4.1 should say that there are 2 schools of thought about Fu et al and other aspects of the temperatures-aloft issue: the jury is still out. That would be a assessment (as opposed to a review) of the current state of the science. Fu may not be correct as he seems to imply upper tropospheric warming rates well outside the error-bars implied by the radiosondes (though I am aware of their problems too). I have not yet read your attachment but will consider it in the next few days. I looked at the surface temperature comments too and feel it may be best to wait until in Beijing, as most comments are about what diagrams to choose. I could try to re-order the urban warming section as reviewers suggest, but we may still wish to contact Tsutsumi (who didn't reply to my email a couple of months ago) to write something. Regards David On Mon, 2005-04-18 at 17:13, Kevin Trenberth wrote: > Hi Phil and David, and Brian > > I believe you three are probably closest to the satellite temperature > record issue and so I am sending this to you. I have thoroughly gone > over all the comments we received and I have prepared a revised 3.4.1 > which is attached. This is the cleaned up version. The actual > version has tracking turned on but the changes are so extensive that > they are very hard to follow. As you know, I have read the entire > CCSP report and commented extensively on it. I know Phil was on the > review team and David was there as a lead author. However David and > Phil may not be as familiar with the whole report. > > Obviously this remains a controversial topic. Many of the comments we > received were diametrically opposed to one another. The rhetoric was > disappointing (especially from Peter Thorne). In fact Peter's > comments are mostly not useful and reveal very strong biases against > Fu and reanalyses. Previously, you'll recall that David provided most > of the text and I edited it and updated it with the Fu material in a > somewhat ad hoc fashion that got almost everyone mad. Probably a good > thing to do in retrospect, as this next version will look so much > better. Note that I have done nothing with the appendices at this > point, so that needs to be addressed. I have taken out all the > tables?? > > You will see even in the current text that I have 2 sections I would > like to delete. > > While individual comparisons of radiosonde station data with > collocated satellite data (Christy and Norris, 2004) suggest that the > median trends of radiosonde temperatures in the troposphere are > generally very close to UAH trends and a little less than RSS trends, > trends at individual radiosonde sites vary and root mean square > differences of UAH satellite data with radiosondes are substantial > (Hurrell et al., 2000). Moreover, as noted in 3.4.1.1, comparisons > with radiosonde data are compromised by the multiple problems with the > latter, and there are diurnal cycle influences on them over land. In > the stratosphere, radiosonde trends are more negative than both MSU > retrievals, especially RSS. [DELETE THIS?] > > The problem here is the rhetoric of Christy et al. In his > contribution Christy justifies the UAH record by saying that "median > trends agree with those of sondes". But he actually sent to us his > Fig. 2 showing the lack of agreement in general. It is only the > median that agrees, the agreement with sondes individually is not good > and this is just for trends. [Hence the median depends on the > selection of stations]. It is even worse if rms differences are > examined (as in Hurrell et al 2000). The only reason to include this > is to rebut Christy's claim. For most other readers it has no > business being there. Your suggestions appreciated. Maybe this > should go in the appendix? > > You will see that I have stolen 2 figures from the CCSP report. I > made up the 3rd figure from data provided from the CCSP report plus > extra material (only the global is in the current draft). It would > also be nice to include a spatial map of trends at the surface and for > the troposphere (T2 corrected as from Fu) but no such figure exists > anywhere, yet. We can get trends from RSS and UAH for T2. It would > be good to have access to the originals so we can modify them and > clean up the terminology. {On that score, I don't think the CCSP > terminology is tenable given the new retrievals of Fu et al (2005) and > ours, using T2, T3, and T4 is much easier). > > At present the CCSP report is not very useful to us. Some figures are > useful. It may become so, but I actually have my doubts, given the > vested interests of the authors. > > I am tempted to send this to Tom Karl in his role as editor of our > chapter, and of course he is head of the CCSP effort, but I would NOT > want him to use it for CCSP (except that it might highlight the > differences in assessments). What do you think? Via Tom we might get > better access to the figures and updates? Also I'l l cc David > Easterling. > This would be the main basis for FOD. > > Ideally also it is desirable to get the figures updated thru 2004, but > can we? > > Please read this version and let me know what you think? (Please be > kind, I have put in a LOT of work on this) > > Best regards > Kevin > > -- > **************** > Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu > Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ > P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 > Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) > > Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 -- David E Parker A2_W052 Met Office FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK email: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1726. 2005-04-19 16:48:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Apr 19 16:48:28 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: IPCC stuff to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, I've looked very briefly at chapters 6 and 9. I did download the others but they have sat unopened on my laptop. Even with 6 and 9 I've only read small bits and had brief discussions with Keith Briffa (6) and Nathan Gillett (9) as we occasionally interact over coffee/tea/lunch breaks. They are both LAs, but it seems their CLAs are working differently. Neither chapter was sent back to all CAs, and they haven't yet got any of their comments back. Still going through ours - the latest lot. Obs/model changes is one possibility but that would also have to involve 9 and 6 (if the paleo runs were involved) as well as the modelling chapters. I did look at Ch 4 on the cryosphere (the figures). They have one based on NCEP temperatures for the Arctic (N. of 70N) in response to one their CQs !!! They also have a whole section on Oerlemans (2005) reconstruction of global-scale temperatures from glacier termini positions. A lot of overlap with Ch 6 here as well. A lot of integration is going to be needed with this one. On the issue of what else we have to contribute to, Brian Hoskins is a good choice, but I doubt he'll do it. Agree that we don't have someone we can nicely pass this onto. If only we had Neville Nicholls in our chapter ! I think we will likely end up doing the SPM and Tech Summ and the Synthesis between us. We do one each. I reckon it all depends how good an FOD we can put together and how much that can alter when it come sto the ZOD. Parts of our FOD will hopefully be good once we have the lengths right and better figures. Depends also on how many comments the FOD gets - how long is a piece of string? From my brief look over 4, 6 and 9 I reckon ours is better. The comments we were getting were encouraging. Mike Manton thought Ch 1 very poor, by the way. Commitment and time are crucial, and I can't decide till after Beijing. If we can get a sub group to take responsibility for the figures, might this help (say David P, Dave E, Brian, Jim R and Albert)? If this can go to safe pairs of hands, once their content and layout have been decided, we might get more time. Have to go home now. We'll need to work on plans for the 3 days on May 9. Phil At 22:57 18/04/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I just talked with Susan Solomon about the forthcoming IPCC meeting. Below somewhat confidential. Seems like they will go ahead and we will be up on the last day to give our views on the AR4 as a whole. This means a bit of homework to say how our chapter relates to others and whether or not we are at odds. Will our obs changes be related to those from models? might be one question. I have not looked at any other chapters ZOD. Any ideas? Seems like I will be co-chairing the inter-chapter group on obs (oceans, cryosphere, paleo). So we will need to also prepare for that: how we integrate with snow and glacier melt, sea level rise, sub-surface T changes, overlaps between paleo and instrumental record, etc. Care to add to the list? Other big questions we have to contribute to include 1) The SPM and Technical summary. Who from our chapter can do this? It needs someone who is broad and knows the whole chapter, and probably is NOT you or me as we have too much else to do that overlaps. Frankly I am not sure I can truly recommend anyone. So a possible option is to use a review editor (Susan suggested Brian Hoskins). Here is my quick take: David P contributes, but does not have strong views and does not speak up enough. Brian S. has the knowledge but has been disappointing in failure to interact and contribute outside of tasks assigned. Jim R. might be possible but not very strong David E. has not done much or anything outside of 3.3. Klein Tank: might be possible, but I have been disappointed thus far. Has not grasped everything, too many things in 3.8 at odds with elsewhere. Roxana, Matilde, Peter, Fatema, Pan Mao would be out of their depth. 2) The synthesis report. This is another troublesome item that will go on in parallel with AR4 report and makes it tough to do both. Need broad people and ones who will speak up and take issue with the WG2 and WG3 people who have political agendas that go beyond the science. Requires a commitment. You or me might be possible but will we have time? So 4 things to think about. Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3873. 2005-04-20 09:07:27 ______________________________________________________ cc: Peter Lemke , Martin Manning , Susan Solomon , ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Wed, 20 Apr 2005 09:07:27 -0600 from: Kevin Trenberth subject: Re: WG1 LA2 meeting - Overlap cluster A to: Phil Jones Hi Martin I agree with what Phil says, but I note that cluster B does not actually have chapter 6 as part of it. So the question is whether chapter 6 will be involved?. If so then we may well want to split into 2 parts. Last night I had a quick look at Chap 9 and I am concerned about redundancy and overlap and conflicts: they are doing some similar things with observations but maybe different obs, and coming to different conclusions e.g. wrt things like dimming. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Dear All, In addition to Kevin's comments and from a quickish look through parts of Chapters 4, 6 and 9, here are a few suggestions. First for best use of time, I would suggest that Cluster B gets broken into two parts. Basically separating off the overlap with the paleo and instrumental record including borehole temperatures and glacier length changes from the sea ice/SST, snow/temperature. OHC/SST, salinity/precip and SLR etc. The latter can be dealt with by Chs 5, 3 and 4. The former is really for 6, 3 and 4. Issues for 3 and 6 are the interface of the instrumental and paleo records, particularly how the early 19th century is dealt with. This period of instrumental records is believed by many in the paleo community not to exist, but in Europe and a few other regions it exists back in good order to the late 18th century. The 19th century is, I believe, the key to resolving much of the discussion about the millennium. Much more should be made of this period when comparisons with long forced GCM runs are analyzed. Europe may be a small continent, but the 200-250 year 'perfect proxy' records (which have all seasons!) need to be studied more. As any conclusions relate to Ch 6, the main text should be there, with perhaps a box on the early instrumental period in Ch 3. Somewhat related to the above, Ch 4 has a section on the recent Oerlemans (2005) work - attached for reference. Mike Mann sent me a figure (see jpg) comparing this with most other reconstructions of parts of the millennium. It seems that this piece of work should be with all the others in Ch 6 and not Ch 4. When producing plots like this getting the right base level is crucial - not just for Oerlemans' series, but also for the boreholes. Also, the degree of smoothing and the y-scale used can easily determine the takeaway message. Chapter 9 has an interest in both these issues. Finally, there is one other issue. Do we want to consider having a web site (distributed?) where the data for some selected time series can be downloaded from - not just the smoothed/plotted series, but on the original timescale as well. This possibly comes back also to a consistent way of smoothing time series. Cheers Phil At 08:11 20/04/2005, Peter Lemke wrote: Dear Martin, I am also willing to co-chair the cluster B. (As always) Kevin has done a very good job in listing the most important issues. Therefore, I have nothing to add at the moment. I will think about this on the weekend. Best regards, Peter Kevin Trenberth schrieb: Hi Martin Yes I will do this. Firstly on cluster A: I/we have an issue which is: what about changes in radiative forcing from water vapor (or feedback if you prefer), it is of order 1 W m-2. So this relates to water vapor changes in chapter 3. Cluster B: Consistency in observed climate change: atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere. This may also extend to paleo, chapter 6. Issues: *Consistency of:* * sea ice with SST * snow cover with snowfall and temperature * glacier melting and permafrost changes vs temperatures * borehole temperatures, glacier changes and paleo record * overlap between paleo record and instrumental record * salinity vs precipitation * ocean heat content with SST and surface fluxes * sea level rise as an integrator: ocean expansion, melting of land ice, increased water storage on land, and changes in TOA radiation (presumably led by Chapter 5.) Issues consist of use of consistent temperature and precipitation records (don't use NCEP surface temperatures as in Ch 4 CQ). Points of contention: 1) consistency 2) overlap and redundancy 3) where to place integrated assessment? * sea level: Chapter 5 * snow, ice, temperature chapter 3 section 3.9 * paleo record vs instrumental chapter 6 * overall view including sea level chapter 3, in 3.9 * T increase (land, SST, subsurface ocean), snow retreat, sea ice retreat, thinning, freezing season shorter, glacier melt, sea level rise. * Precip changes, drought, salinity, ocean currents, P-E, snowfall. Please see the draft of 3.9. So in terms of the agenda, the main points are: 1) Ensuring consistency among variables across chapters 2) Agreement on which chapter and what person will handle what, and in particular, that 3.9 will have a look ahead aspect to the chapters that follow. The above points could all be briefly on the table with the focus on cross-chapter issues. Desirable to circulate draft section 3.9 (1 page). Peter may wish to add or change this? Regards Kevin Martin Manning wrote: Dear Kevin and Peter Please find attached our current program for the second Lead Author meeting on May 10 - 12. We will shortly be sending out some more details on the plans for the meeting and in particular would like to clarify what needs to be done in the Overlap Cluster meetings shown in the program on Wednesday 11th. This is to ask if you would be prepared to jointly co-chair the session on Overlap Cluster B dealing with "Consistency in covering observed climate change" and which will involve discussion among chapters 3, 4, 5, 9 and 11. The attached program lists, on the last page, overlap / consistency areas that have been mentioned in the ZOD. We would really be most grateful for your assistance in this, and if you agree, we would like to ask that you each to specify what in your view would be the 2 or 3 most important issues to resolve during the overlap cluster session. We will then use your input to draw up a specific agenda and circulate agendas for all overlap clusters to all CLAs prior to the meeting. We hope in this way that we can reach a shared understanding of the most important overlap and consistency issues and the corresponding key decisions that will have to be made in Beijing. I would be grateful if you could let me know whether you are able to help us with this by Wednesday 20th. Regards Martin -- *Recommended Email address: [1]mmanning@al.noaa.gov *** Please note that problems may occur with my @noaa.gov address Dr Martin R Manning, Director, IPCC WG I Support Unit NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory Phone: +1 303 497 4479 325 Broadway, DSRC R/AL8 Fax: +1 303 497 5628 Boulder, CO 80305, USA -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 -- **************************************************** Prof. Dr. Peter Lemke Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research Postfach 120161 27515 Bremerhaven GERMANY e-mail: [4]plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de Phone: ++49 (0)471 - 4831 - 1751/1750 FAX: ++49 (0)471 - 4831 - 1797 [5]http://www.awi-bremerhaven.de **************************************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [6]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- _______________________________________________________________________________ [cid:part1.06010200.08000003@ucar.edu] -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [7]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [8]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Embedded Content: Re WG1 LA2 meeting - Overlap c.jpg: 00000001,429c633d,00000000,00000000 1890. 2005-04-20 10:03:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Wed Apr 20 10:03:06 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Fwd: WG1 LA2 meeting - Overlap cluster D to: Jonathan Overpeck , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, joos , Bette Otto-Bleisner , peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca, rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de Peck I think your points are fine - the whole issue of estimating model sensitivity implicit in your a) and b) could be more explicit perhaps Keith At 21:29 19/04/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Dear IPCC WG1 Chapter 6 modeling-related authors - Pls see Martin's note below and send me your list of the 2 to 3 most important issues to resolve during this overlap cluster session in Beijing. Try to keep your list short; perhaps several small issues can be dealt with under a bigger issue. Ideas that come to my mind are (please help me frame these better if you agree that they are issues): a) EMICS and GCMs - how to present in a balanced and consistent manner? b) model evaluation and implications for models used in Chapter 10 (e.g., does the IPCC put too much weight on models that appear to evaluate less well?) c) are discussions of what is known and not known about hypothesized climate forcing (e.g., solar) consistent across chapters? What else? It appears that I need to send Martin feedback soon, so please send your input to me asap. CC to the others unless there is a reason not to, but everything should go to Eystein too. thanks, Peck X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2005 19:05:34 -0600 To: stocker@climate.unibe.ch, jto@u.arizona.edu From: Martin Manning Subject: WG1 LA2 meeting - Overlap cluster D Cc: Susan.Solomon@noaa.gov, ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov Dear Tom and Peck Please find attached our current program for the second Lead Author meeting on May 10 - 12. We will shortly be sending out some more details on the plans for the meeting and in particular would like to clarify what needs to be done in the Overlap Cluster meetings shown in the program on Wednesday 11th. This is to ask if you would be prepared to jointly co-chair the session on Overlap Cluster D dealing with "Consistency in coverage of modelling on various time scales" and which will involve discussion among chapters 6, 8, 10 and possibly also 4, 7, 9 and 11. The attached program lists, on the last page, overlap / consistency areas that have been mentioned in the ZOD. We would really be most grateful for your assistance in this, and if you agree, we would like to ask that you each to specify what in your view would be the 2 or 3 most important issues to resolve during the overlap cluster session. We will then use your input to draw up a specific agenda and circulate agendas for all overlap clusters to all CLAs prior to the meeting. We hope in this way that we can reach a shared understanding of the most important overlap and consistency issues and the corresponding key decisions that will have to be made in Beijing. I would be grateful if you could let me know whether you are able to help us with this by Wednesday 20th. Regards Martin -- Recommended Email address: mmanning@al.noaa.gov ** Please note that problems may occur with my @noaa.gov address Dr Martin R Manning, Director, IPCC WG I Support Unit NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory Phone: +1 303 497 4479 325 Broadway, DSRC R/AL8 Fax: +1 303 497 5628 Boulder, CO 80305, USA -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1151. 2005-04-20 17:00:07 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Klein Tank, Albert" , David Easterling , Jim Renwick date: Wed Apr 20 17:00:07 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: 3.3 and 3.8 to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Although CA had record rains they occurred in bursts from October to March, as opposed to in a couple of months (Jan/Feb) as in the classic El Ninos. Need to make clear somewhere these extremes were very atypical. There was one year someone said it was like, but I can't recall which. It just goes to show that when we think we know something, Nature changes the deck. Any SST-based index is likely to be a permanent El Nino state with a little more warming, unless the base period is changed. Wouldn't one based on SOI be less susceptible. The paper may be relevant. Seems to conclude lots of things happening in the Arctic, but can't be explained by the AO (NAM) or the NAO. Cheers Phil At 16:38 20/04/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Phil raises a good point I forgot: the need to briefly annotate the comments. On ENSO: The recommendations to NOAA was that the single best index: if you want to have just 1, is Nino 3.4. I agree with that. But it was also recommended that it should not be applied with a threshold such that once it crosses it is EN and if it doesn't cross it is not! In fact at least 2 indices are essential as we have documented, and we proposed the TNI: the trans Nino index which is the normalized difference between Nino 4 and Nino 1+2. Historically all nino regions have been strongly correlated, but with lags: before 1976 Nino 1+2 led N 3 and N 4 by several months. After 1976 Nino 3.4 led 1+2 by several months: a reversal in evolution, and some responses on the coast have been wimpy: we have seen that especially in last 2 events, so not much in 1+2 region at all. (One can argue that it relates to warming of oceans and esp Nino 4 region) This past year has been remarkable in US: the wimpy EN has nonetheless had major impacts with record rains in southwest (Arizona, CA, N Mexico) and drought in northwest (Washington, Idaho). On satellite mean OLR you can see visually the direct link from anomalous convection near or west of dateline to California, so I don't think there is much doubt of a causal link. But it is not really much of a classical EN even though conditions are quite anomalous. Need to deal with the different flavors of EN, as I have been saying for years. Nino 3.4 is related to the basin scale mean and relates best to anomalous tropical precip. TNI discriminates between Nino 4 and Nino 1+2 and allows evolution to be described: it is related to Nino 3.4 at leads or lags on average. Nino 4 has been very high and Nino 1+2 not, so TNI has played a major role over past year. The following are the relevant pubs. Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001: Indices of El Niño evolution. J. Climate, 14, 16971701. Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak and J. M. Caron, 2002: Interannual variations in the atmospheric heat budget. J. Geophys. Res., 107(D8), 4066, 10.1029/2000D000297 Trenberth, K. E., J. M. Caron, D. P. Stepaniak and S. Worley, 2002: Evolution of El Niño Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 107(D8), 4065,10.1029/2000D000298. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Dear All, I was going to reply an hour ago to your emails, but got so fed up with interruptions here that I went somewhere quiet to try and read Kevin's new 3.4.1. Latter is good and I'll transfer my comments tonight and send to Kevin tomorrow. What I was going to suggest was tracked changes but just of your sections and we merge them in Beijing - or I can do this if you send me them by May 5. Probably best if we just bring all to China. Important, though, in all you do, is to note in the reviews that you've responded to each comment in some way. So keep track there as well - remembering the two sets of comments from the LAs and the formal WG1 reviews. These responses can be brief - even just say done. Also we are supposed to get a few more reviews from WG1. When you're doing this Albert, it is best for almost all aspects of extremes to be in your section, so note potential overlaps. I looked through the BAMS review whilst in a hotel room one night a week or two ago and it does contain a lot of useful info and some other diagrams in addition to the hurricane one. We should discuss the ACE work in Beijing at some point. It would be good to have something on that. One thing - linking it to ENSO stirred a chord ! We need to decide on a definition of ENSO (Nino3.4, SOI or whatever) and what are El Nino and La Nina years. I'm not advocating anything - except that we don't use the stupid new NOAA definition ! It seems that only NOAA think we've had or are in an El Nino. If any chapter amongst all of IPCC should have a definitive index and or list of moderate/strong years it should be us. It should be a good one though - I'm sure you have one in something you've done Kevin, or there is one you prefer that we can update. Darwin SOI is fine with me, maybe we can add a list of the key years to the Table in 3.6. Cheers Phil At 15:34 20/04/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi guys, I suggested earlier, that it is desirable if you can use track changes and come to Beijing with proposed revised text. I realize it will be a logistical nightmare trying to bring all the stuff together, but it is important to be able to compare with one another on the proposed changes and get agreement: sanity checks from at least one other person before changing text for the FOD. ie.we need to keep making progress, not two steps forward and one backwards, as part of it degrades. Great figures (can be new) will be much appreciated. As David knows, I have been working with David Levinson on a new figure on global aspects of hurricanes. I think that whole section is very imnportant yet the ZOD falls way short. But the 2004 BAMS climate review, coming out in June and which I sent around, has all the basic material to allow a much better and more balance view of this issue, and it requires someone spending the time to pull out the relevant material. I wonder if you, Albert can have a crack at that? I went through and marked up some areas. David also provided me with a global view of the ACE index. He is not comfortable enough with it to have it published, but it is interesting and can be discussed. The key aspects here are that ENSO perturbs the distribution of hurricanes in every basin. With EN there is a decrease in Nth Atlantic but marked increase in E N. Pacific and also W N Pacific. So the most active year globally on record is 1997 by far, and second is 1992, also an El Nino year. We have a lot of the ingredients on this in the Nth Atlantic sectiuon, but the others are weak. Once material is revised, we will integrate it in Beijing into a master copy. Bring your memory sticks. Kevin Klein Tank, Albert wrote: Phil, Yes, I have planned time to work on the comments before the meeting. Is it OK to use track changes and edit Kevin's FOD? And can I make changes everywhere in the chapter (which will give us multiple versions of Ch3 in Beijing) or only in certain sections? I also intended to make brief notes to the comments in the table that Kevin send and the table that was send to us by the TSU. Here again my question is: do we just go ahead and integrate everything in Beijing? Albert. -----Original Message----- From: David Easterling [[1]mailto:David.Easterling@noaa.gov] Sent: woensdag 20 april 2005 14:58 To: Phil Jones Cc: Klein Tank, Albert; Kevin Trenberth Subject: Re: 3.3 and 3.8 Phil, I will have some time to do revisions before the meeting. I was wondering just how far to go prior to the meeting. Dave Phil Jones wrote: Albert, Dave, Will either of you have much time to do any revisions of sections 3.3 and 3.8 before LA2? Have any of the other LAs contacted you about revisions? I've been discussing 3.2 with David, and Kevin has rewritten 3.4.1, so am wondering how your timetables are between now and LA2? Deciding in 3.3 on which precip series to show was the reason for sending the new data from GPCC. All alternate/revised diagrams will be vitally important in Beijing. David has sent me 3 for 3.2. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [2]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [3]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [4]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [5]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [6]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [7]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3947. 2005-04-21 08:33:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: "'David R. Easterling'" date: Thu Apr 21 08:33:47 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Chapter 3.4.1 to: Kevin Trenberth , David Parker , Brian Soden Kevin, A very slightly revised 3.4.1 attached. It reads well and the CCSP-based figures are fine. Not keen on their use of running means, but the message is clear. Agree on deleting the highlighted bits of text. Added in the word radiances a few times, wrt raw MSU data. Cheers Phil At 17:13 18/04/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Phil and David, and Brian I believe you three are probably closest to the satellite temperature record issue and so I am sending this to you. I have thoroughly gone over all the comments we received and I have prepared a revised 3.4.1 which is attached. This is the cleaned up version. The actual version has tracking turned on but the changes are so extensive that they are very hard to follow. As you know, I have read the entire CCSP report and commented extensively on it. I know Phil was on the review team and David was there as a lead author. However David and Phil may not be as familiar with the whole report. Obviously this remains a controversial topic. Many of the comments we received were diametrically opposed to one another. The rhetoric was disappointing (especially from Peter Thorne). In fact Peter's comments are mostly not useful and reveal very strong biases against Fu and reanalyses. Previously, you'll recall that David provided most of the text and I edited it and updated it with the Fu material in a somewhat ad hoc fashion that got almost everyone mad. Probably a good thing to do in retrospect, as this next version will look so much better. Note that I have done nothing with the appendices at this point, so that needs to be addressed. I have taken out all the tables?? You will see even in the current text that I have 2 sections I would like to delete. While individual comparisons of radiosonde station data with collocated satellite data (Christy and Norris, 2004) suggest that the median trends of radiosonde temperatures in the troposphere are generally very close to UAH trends and a little less than RSS trends, trends at individual radiosonde sites vary and root mean square differences of UAH satellite data with radiosondes are substantial (Hurrell et al., 2000). Moreover, as noted in 3.4.1.1, comparisons with radiosonde data are compromised by the multiple problems with the latter, and there are diurnal cycle influences on them over land. In the stratosphere, radiosonde trends are more negative than both MSU retrievals, especially RSS. [DELETE THIS?] The problem here is the rhetoric of Christy et al. In his contribution Christy justifies the UAH record by saying that "median trends agree with those of sondes". But he actually sent to us his Fig. 2 showing the lack of agreement in general. It is only the median that agrees, the agreement with sondes individually is not good and this is just for trends. [Hence the median depends on the selection of stations]. It is even worse if rms differences are examined (as in Hurrell et al 2000). The only reason to include this is to rebut Christy's claim. For most other readers it has no business being there. Your suggestions appreciated. Maybe this should go in the appendix? You will see that I have stolen 2 figures from the CCSP report. I made up the 3rd figure from data provided from the CCSP report plus extra material (only the global is in the current draft). It would also be nice to include a spatial map of trends at the surface and for the troposphere (T2 corrected as from Fu) but no such figure exists anywhere, yet. We can get trends from RSS and UAH for T2. It would be good to have access to the originals so we can modify them and clean up the terminology. {On that score, I don't think the CCSP terminology is tenable given the new retrievals of Fu et al (2005) and ours, using T2, T3, and T4 is much easier). At present the CCSP report is not very useful to us. Some figures are useful. It may become so, but I actually have my doubts, given the vested interests of the authors. I am tempted to send this to Tom Karl in his role as editor of our chapter, and of course he is head of the CCSP effort, but I would NOT want him to use it for CCSP (except that it might highlight the differences in assessments). What do you think? Via Tom we might get better access to the figures and updates? Also I'l l cc David Easterling. This would be the main basis for FOD. Ideally also it is desirable to get the figures updated thru 2004, but can we? Please read this version and let me know what you think? (Please be kind, I have put in a LOT of work on this) Best regards Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [1]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [2]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2167. 2005-04-21 13:46:04 ______________________________________________________ cc: , , "Tim Osborn" date: Thu, 21 Apr 2005 13:46:04 +0100 from: "Rob Wilson" subject: Emailing: Wilson et al. Figures and Tables, Wilson et al. Paper v2 to: "Brohan, Philip" Hi Philip, Tim, Keith and Simon, attached is the coral SST reconstruction paper. Sandy and I would appreciate critical comments and any editing that you feel the paper requires. I have purposely kept the paper as short as possible although I have yet no target journal in mind - I am open to suggestions. I think more is needed with regards to the recon/model comparison. Although they compare quite well, the fact that HADCM3 seems to underestimate recent temperatures (affect of aerosol cooling??), while ECHO-G tracks the trend quite well although it does not include aerosol cooling needs some sort of comment. I think Tim might have some better thoughts on this than me. anyway, I am open to critical abuse all the best Rob ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Rob Wilson Honorary Research Fellow School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Scotland, U.K. Tel: 0131 620 1141 Publication PDFs: [1]http://www.robdendro.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/publications.html ".....I have wondered about trees. They are sensitive to light, to moisture, to wind, to pressure. Sensitivity implies sensation. Might a man feel into the soul of a tree for these sensations? If a tree were capable of awareness, this faculty might prove useful. " "The Miracle Workers" by Jack Vance ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Wilson et al. Figures and Tables.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Wilson et al. Paper v2.doc" 4222. 2005-04-22 08:12:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Apr 22 08:12:44 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: 2005GL022760R Revision received to: kjohnson@agu.org Send me details of how to access the revised version. Phil Jones At 21:37 21/04/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr. Jones: I have received a revised version of "Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature" by Kevin Trenberth, Dennis Shea Geophysical Research Letters [Paper #2005GL022760R] which you previously reviewed for possible publication in Geophysical Research Letters. Would you be willing and available to provide another review of this manuscript? Your input on the revision is pivotal to determining if your concerns have been adequately addressed. If you agree to review this revision, you will have access to all previous versions of the manuscript and reviews as well as the author(s) response to the reviews. I would ask for your comments within about 14 days from your acceptance. Thank you for your continued support of Geophysical Research Letters. Sincerely, Naohiro Yoshida Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1529. 2005-04-22 09:29:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Apr 22 09:29:45 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Mann vs. McIntyre to: David Appell David, I wouldn't worry about the criticism. It is groundless in my view. It is just people making mischief. The MM paper in GRL is just wrong. The point you can make is that there are loads of other papers giving similar results to MBH. None of these has a warm 15th century. Most give cooler 15th centuries than MBH - in fact MM is closest to MBH in their revised curve. I know this wasn't part of their GRL paper, but they had one in CR that said revisions to MBH gives a warm 15th century. MM is the outlier in all this, not MBH. In a soccer analogy in the UK, we have the premier league with teams like Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in it. MBH is in this premier league. MM is Sunday morning soccer played by amateurs. I'm sure you have similar baseball analogies. Cheers Phil At 21:12 21/04/2005, you wrote: Dr. Jones, Hi. Do you have any thoughts on the Michael Mann vs. Stephen McIntyre controversy? I wrote a profile of Michael Mann for the March 2005 issue of Scientific American. Some readers have criticized me, based mostly on a 2/14 article in the Wall Street Journal, for failing to pay heed to the work of Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, which was published in Geophysical Research Letters in February 2005. I'm wondering if you put much faith in the McIntyre & McKitrick paper, and how you think it stacks up to the work of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes.... Any thoughts you'd care to share? I would need your response by Monday, April 25th.... Thanks, David -- David Appell, freelance science journalist e: appell@nasw.org p: 603-659-1892 w: [1]http://www.nasw.org/users/appell m: 26H Piscassic St. #208, Newmarket, NH 03857 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3877. 2005-04-22 13:12:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: David Easterling , "Parker, David (Met Office)" date: Fri Apr 22 13:12:09 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Figures and Tables in 3.2 and also 3.3 to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, A few thoughts. Fig 3.2.6 will bring out the recent land/ocean diverging trends. I'll bring that in to the revised 3.2 I'm currently doing. The possible new addition to 3.2.4 could replace what we currently have. I'm a little wary about have too many plots of this kind as the reviewers will want even more. It will likely be difficult to get an in situ plot like 3.6.10. David is working on new Tables 3.2.1 and 3.2.2 so the comments about digits are pertinent. We should be able to decide on these in Beijing. One final comment on figures in this section is that the rest of Fig 3.2.4 needs updating and needs some of the other SST analyses added. We said add Ishii et al 2005. We'll need an NCDC one as well, and need to get GISS into 3.2.1. After Beijing we should have someone responsible for each Figure, so that updates can be done for the FOD, SOD etc. Similarly for Tables. If we all have a spreadsheet of responsibilities we'll know who to contact. Cheers Phil At 18:19 21/04/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Phil some comments: Phil Jones wrote: Dave, David and Kevin, In addition to Kevin's point about where to break the map (30E is another possibility), I have now been through both sets of comments on 3.2. On the Figures, all the SH people have rightly asked for the seasonal maps (i.e .3.2.9 and 3.3.3) be labelled December to February, March to May etc, rather than the Winter, Spring there at the moment. Can you pass this on to Byron, Dave? None of the reviewers said anything about time latitude sections, only requests for more regional aspects. I did though. Question is how to handle this. I don't much like linear trends, so maps of linear trends are not sufficient. I am thinking more and more that a big issue emerging is the increasing trend of land vs ocean. We have a land vs ocean figure: Fig 3.2.6? Is that the right one? We need to capture that well. This relates to the max vs min and DTR issue, and also MSU issue. How to bring out where the land vs ocean are separating: maybe that's in the 1979-2004 trend map? Figures 3.2.5a and now b have additional time series plots for the Tropics (20N-20S) and NH N of 20N and the SH S of 20S. Having the tropics answers one reviewer (Fu), but I feel, David, the extratropics are too like the whole hemispheres. Chris Folland wanted an Arctic plot. Doing this would mean we could get into Ch 4 - they had an NCEP temperature average for the Arctic in one of their answers to a CQ! So, can you ask John Kennedy to see if he can do an Arctic and an Antarctic plot. Do the latter from only 1958 onwards - there is some earlier data but it is sparse and very noisy. I guess once HadCRUT3 gets used for the SOD (or maybe the FOD) we can get error bars on these non-hemispheric plots. Please also note Fig 3.6.10: This one is based on remote sensing though and can in situ match it? This one relates to SAM. Also for use in the hurricane section, can we include either the attached figure or a new version as a replacement for 3.2.4e. This is based on HADISST. I would say the two polar regions are poleward of 65 degrees. Any views on this and dropping the two extratropic plots? As for the Tables (3.2.1 and 3.2.2) there were a number of comments. John Janzante wanted them laid out better. His comment is on p10 of the 66 page set of LA comments. Basically he's suggested omitting the significance level and use italics and bold to indicate 5 and 1% conf. levels. The ranges would go on the line below the trend estimate. This seems reasonable. I still think they should be in a Table, but the plot Kevin used in 3.4.1 was effective. Finally, there was one comment on the precision used (DK comments # 3.28 on pg 8 of 33). I have some sympathy for one less significant figure for the shorter periods, but that three is needed for the 144 and 104 year periods, otherwise for these they all be similar. Need to consistent for all periods, so stick with three. David is going to redo these, so any views? I strongly agree with 1 less digit. For longer period, units maybe should be per century? Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1809. 2005-04-22 15:16:17 ______________________________________________________ cc: Satyan_V@gateway.wmo.ch date: Fri, 22 Apr 2005 15:16:17 -0600 from: Jerry Meehl subject: [Cmsaw] May 1 deadline to: ipcc_subprojects@pcmdi.llnl.gov, cmsaw@joss.ucar.edu Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by thunder.joss.ucar.edu id j3MLGVYO014404 --the text of this message is also included as an msword attachment to this email; we apologize if you receive this message more than once since we are sending it to several different email alias lists-- April 22, 2005 Message regarding May 1, 2005, deadline for papers to be assessed for the IPCC AR4 As you all know, it was stated at the Hawaii workshop in March that for your papers to be assessed in the IPCC AR4, the IPCC WG1 deadline for manuscripts to be submitted to peer-reviewed journals was May 1, 2005. Recently, a number of you have been asking about that deadline, and pointing out the difficulties, both logistical and scientific, in actually meeting it. Recall that the May 1 deadline was put in place to ensure that your papers could be adequately discussed and assessed by the lead authors at the upcoming Beijing meeting in early May. This is still a key consideration. However, the concern that inadequate, partially completed papers could be submitted before May 1 simply to meet that deadline, or that there could be important relevant work very close but not quite completed before May 1, has made more compelling the argument to seek the maximum flexibility while still conforming to the needs and rules of the Assessment Process. Therefore, though you are still encouraged to submit papers prior to May 1, papers submitted any time during the month of May are now eligible for assessment. However, if you can’t meet the May 1 deadline with a completed manuscript, you are encouraged to send preliminary drafts of your papers to the appropriate lead authors so that they have something in hand to discuss in Beijing. Then, on submission of a final manuscript in May, please proceed with the recommendations made in Hawaii (summarized at http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/info_for_analysts.php) to send copies to the WG1 TSU as well as appropriate Lead Author contacts. Please be advised that for citation in the AR4, papers need to be in press no later than December 15, 2005. This is dictated by the need for full clarity as to what papers can actually be included in the AR4 for the official Government review. Therefore there is a certain trade-off regarding the May deadline in that you have to consider the length of time required to go through the review process. The longer you wait in May before submitting a paper, the closer you will be cutting the December deadline for your papers to be accepted. We thank those of you who have already submitted papers, and we look forward to more to come before May 1, and then on through the month of May. Best regards, Jerry Meehl (for the WGCM Climate Simulation Panel in consultation with Susan Solomon and Thomas Stocker) Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\Deadline.update.doc" _______________________________________________ Cmsaw mailing list Cmsaw@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/cmsaw 3427. 2005-04-22 16:45:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Apr 22 16:45:22 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Pielke !!! to: trenbert@ucar.edu This is all I need ! Must try and be somewhere else ! Is Jr as bad as Sr, or has someone here got it wrong and this is Sr? Sr is at Atmos Sci. so this is Jr. Phil At 17:35 21/04/2005, you wrote: ~~~~ All Welcome~~~~ 3 May The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - honest broker or political advocate? Understanding the difference and why it matters Roger A. Pielke, Jr, Centre for Science & Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado, USA 4-5pm, Zuckerman Institute Seminar Room, UEA The IPCC was created in the late 1980s to provide guidance to policy makers on climate change. Roger argues that since that time, the IPCC has seen its mandate and behaviour change from providing a guide to policy options to a much more narrow focus in support of a particular option at the center of intense political debate. This process has been accompanied by some in the IPCC leadership taking a more prominent role as participants in climate politics. All indications suggest that the fourth assessment will continue in this trend of narrowing it focus to advocate a particular approach to climate policy over other possible responses. This talk will explain the important differences between the IPCC serving as an "honest broker" and serving as a "political advocate." Roger will also explore the consequences for climate policy of these various alternatives, arguing that the IPCC is an important institution and that its role as an honest broker is worth preserving. » [1]Link to more details Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2406. 2005-04-25 11:19:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Apr 25 11:19:18 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Report to: "Brohan, Philip" , Ian Harris Philip, Harry and I are meeting at 2pm today and you'll get the answers and/or additional material later today or tomorrow. As I'm away tomorrow, I'll answer 3 now and give my thoughts on 6. 3. Each month the HC updates the 1991-2005 file with the latest CLIMAT messages. I also do this and pick up earlier CLIMAT messages (for the last 18 months) or so in case any late data get added in. I do this monthly and add in any months of MCDW (Monthly Climatic Data for the World - a file I get from NCDC) that have been received in the past month. MCDW is currently about 2-3 months behind real time. About 100 stations get added through this - most are additional stations in the US that don't appear in the GTS CLIMAT messages. I also from MCDW add in their back data. This is approximately an additional 50-100 station months worth of data - for a random selection of countries. This often (but not always) includes Pakistan, a few sites in India, Sudan, Brazil, a few sites in Thailand plus others. These listed have been regulars in the last 12 months. How NCDC gets this data isn't clear to me. It is likely to be back data received after the cut-off each month. It could be mailed in reports. If it is coming by the GTS your system could be losing it. In assessments done by WMO every year, there is a +/- 2-5% difference in CLIMAT reports received at the main monitoring centres around the world. Each month I also manually add in monthly temperatures for some sites in the Antarctic. These are for the South Pole and Russian sites on the continent (3 sites, Bellingshausen, Vostok and Mirny). South Pole never comes in over the GTS and the Russian sites are very sporadic. I get these by email from the SP and by email from a colleague in St. Petersburg (Victor Lagun). Victor is on the attached paper which came out in IJC recently. All the Antarctic data in this paper are in the dataset. Every now and then I go to the BAS web site of Gareth Marshall and pick up and manually add in back Antarctic data (this is mainly for the French site at Dumont D'Urville) and the NZ site (Scott Base) as reporting from other countries has been relatively good recently. I don't keep any sort of record of any of this, but all the manually entered data is checked by me for outliers. All the MCDW data and back CLIMATs entered automatically get their anomalies listed out and I look for largish values. I am happy to continue doing all this after HadCRUT3 starts. The Antarctic stuff is important as coverage is poor down there. NCDC have produced maps of recent trends for the AR4 from their dataset and their Antarctic coverage is much poorer than HadCRUT2. We are currently trying to figure out if this is because of missing data or the their plotting software. It may be that the single 5 by 5 boxes get omitted when plotting. 6) What Harry has plotted is the annual average corrections in the histograms. The CRU averages appear small, but the stations are all over the world, so averaging makes them appear near zero - adjustments don't have a preferential sign (which might be a point worth making, if you gridded with and without the adjustments, differences would be very small). For Canada, although a big country, it is still only a small part of the world. The adjustments they have applied tend to make sites warmer or colder by about 0.7 deg C. There is less cancelling going on and the adjustments fall into two camps. Maybe if we split the CRU adjustments into continents (even just NH and SH) we might get the bimodal shapes that Canada shows. The different seasonal cycles around the world partly produce the CRU result as for winter months adjustments tend to be larger. I'll see if Harry can try this for USA+Central America/Caribbean, S. America, Europe, Asia Australasia and Africa (+NH and SH). Some of these may not have many samples though. Cheers Phil At 10:07 25/04/2005, Brohan, Philip wrote: Hi Harry. Thanks for the report, it is basically fine - clear and concise. It describes well all the good work you've done on the data. There are a few points that still need clearing up, mostly details needed for the HadCRUT3 paper I am writing: 1) I am using revision 10 of the data files (data, normals and SDs). Is this the final version? If not, please send me the latest revision. 2) Have you any references for the data changes you have made? We'll need these for the paper. 3) Have any other station data changes or additions been made since the production of HadCRUT2? (Antarctic data?) This isn't really part of your report, but we'll need to put details in the paper. 4) Please send me a list of the station IDs you deleted. I can then delete them from the recent data file as well. 5) You've done a good job cleaning up the normals, but I still need estimates of the expected uncertainty of the station normals where they are inferred from limited data or taken from WMO. You will know this from the work you describe in section 3 on process improvement. Can you add a couple of figures like those in section 4, showing the difference between the WMO and new normals for your 617 stations, and the effect of using only 15 of the 30 years in generating a climatology? 6 I'm a bit confused by section 4: Additional information. If I interpret it correctly, for both the CRU and Canadian data, a bit under half of the measurements have been corrected. But the CRU corrections are most likely to be small (~.2C), while the Canadian corrections are never small, and are most likely to be medium sized (~.6C). Is this right? Can you shed any light on this discrepancy? (At first glance it looks as if the uncorrected Canadian data has large inhomogeneities which are approximately normally distributed, but only those larger than a threshold have been identified and corrected; while the CRU corrections are an attempt to correct for the remaining small inhomogeneities. But this is pure speculation on my part.) Thanks, Philip On Fri, 2005-04-22 at 18:56, Ian Harris wrote: > Philip, > > Please find attached a final draft of the report, "ENHANCEMENT AND > QUALITY CONTROL OF CRU MONTHLY TEMPERATURE STATION DATA SET'. > > All comments, etc will be dealt with as quickly as possible. > > Cheers > > Harry > Ian "Harry" Harris > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ > United Kingdom -- Philip Brohan, Climate Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Tel: +44 (0)1392 884574 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://www.hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4606. 2005-04-26 20:25:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 20:25:46 -0400 (EDT) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: ms ps urgent to: jto@u.arizona.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, tcrowley@duke.edu HI Jonathan and Keith, Is it possible to not distribute the ms I just sent any further than the two of you for now? Science can be a bit neurotic and I don't want it to flounder because of distribution! (I don;t know how we are all supposed to handle the IPCC revision with submitted ms when we are not supposed to distribute, I am wondering about a Barnett paper for my chapter, also, for the same purpose - but I';ll probably send it only to my ocean guy and under promises of secrecy....) Gabi -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- 2429. 2005-04-27 09:06:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Apr 27 09:06:53 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: CCNet: DEBUNKING THE "DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE" SCARE to: mann@virginia.edu Mike, Presumably you've seen all this - the forwarded email from Tim. I got this email from McIntyre a few days ago. As far as I'm concerned he has the data - sent ages ago. I'll tell him this, but that's all - no code. If I can find it, it is likely to be hundreds of lines of uncommented fortran ! I recall the program did a lot more that just average the series. I know why he can't replicate the results early on - it is because there was a variance correction for fewer series. See you in Bern. Cheers Phil Dear Phil, In keeping with the spirit of your suggestions to look at some of the other multiproxy publications, I've been looking at Jones et al [1998]. The methodology here is obviously more straightforward than MBH98. However, while I have been able to substantially emulate your calculations, I have been unable to do so exactly. The differences are larger in the early periods. Since I have been unable to replicate the results exactly based on available materials, I would appreciate a copy of the actual data set used in Jones et al [1998] as well as the code used in these calculations. There is an interesting article on replication by Anderson et al., some distinguished economists, here [1]http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-014.pdf discussing the issue of replication in applied economics and referring favorably to our attempts in respect to MBH98. Regards, Steve McIntyre X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.2.0.14 Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2005 13:28:53 +0100 To: Phil Jones ,"Keith Briffa" From: Tim Osborn Subject: Fwd: CCNet: DEBUNKING THE "DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE" SCARE Keith and Phil, you both feature in the latest issue of CCNet: (4) GLOBAL WARMING AND DATA Steve Verdon, Outside the Beltway, 25 April 2005 [2]http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/10200 A new paper ([3]http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-014.pdf) from the St. Luis Federal Reserve Bank has an interesting paer on how important it is to archive not only the data but the code for empirical papers. While the article looks mainly at economic research there is also a lesson to be drawn from this paper about the current state of research for global warming/climate change. One of the hallmarks of scientific research is that the results can be replicable. Without this, the results shouldn't be considered valid let alone used for making policy. Ideally, investigators should be willing to share their data and programs so as to encourage other investigators to replicate and/or expand on their results.3 Such behavior allows science to move forward in a Kuhn-style linear fashion, with each generation seeing further from the shoulders of the previous generation.4 At a minimum, the results of an endeavor-if it is to be labeled "scientific"-should be replicable, i.e., another researcher using the same methods should be able to reach the same result. In the case of applied economics using econometric software, this means that another researcher using the same data and the same computer software should achieve the same results. However, this is precisely the problem that Steven McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have run into since looking into the methodology used by Mann, Hughes and Bradely (1998) (MBH98), the paper that came up with the famous "hockey stick" for temperature reconstructions. For example, this post here shows that McIntyre was prevented from accessing Mann's FTP site. This is supposedly a public site where interested researchers can download not only the source code, but also the data. This kind of behavior by Mann et. al. is simply unscientific and also rather suspicious. Why lock out a researcher who is trying to verify your results...do you have something to hide professors Mann, Bradley and Huges? Not only has this been a problem has this been a problem for McIntyre with regards to MBH98, but other studies as well. This post at Climate Audit shows that this problem is actually quite serious. Crowley and Lowery (2000) After nearly a year and over 25 emails, Crowley said in mid-October that he has misplaced the original data and could only find transformed and smoothed versions. This makes proper data checking impossible, but I'm planning to do what I can with what he sent. Do I need to comment on my attitude to the original data being "misplaced"? Briffa et al. (2001) There is no listing of sites in the article or SI (despite JGR policies requiring citations be limited to publicly archived data). Briffa has refused to respond to any requests for data. None of these guys have the least interest in some one going through their data and seem to hoping that the demands wither away. I don't see how any policy reliance can be made on this paper with no available data. Esper et al. (2002) This paper is usually thought to show much more variation than the hockey stick. Esper has listed the sites used, but most of them are not archived. Esper has not responded to any requests for data. ' Jones and Mann (2003); Mann and Jones (2004) Phil Jones sent me data for these studies in July 2004, but did not have the weights used in the calculations, which Mann had. Jones thought that the weights did not matter, but I have found differently. I've tried a few times to get the weights, but so far have been unsuccessful. My surmise is that the weighting in these papers is based on correlations to local temperature, as opposed to MBH98-MBH99 where the weightings are based on correlations to the temperature PC1 (but this is just speculation right now.) The papers do not describe the methods in sufficient detail to permit replication. Jacoby and d'Arrigo (northern treeline) I've got something quite interesting in progress here. If you look at the original 1989 paper, you will see that Jacoby "cherry-picked" the 10 "most temperature-sensitive" sites from 36 studied. I've done simulations to emulate cherry-picking from persistent red noise and consistently get hockey stick shaped series, with the Jacoby northern treeline reconstruction being indistinguishable from simulated hockey sticks. The other 26 sites have not been archived. I've written to Climatic Change to get them to intervene in getting the data. Jacoby has refused to provide the data. He says that his research is "mission-oriented" and, as an ex-marine, he is only interested in a "few good" series. Jacoby has also carried out updated studies on the Gaspé series, so essential to MBH98. I've seen a chronology using the new data, which looks completely different from the old data (which is a hockey stick). I've asked for the new data, but Jacoby-d'Arrigo have refused it saying that the old data is "better" for showing temperature increases. Need I comment? I've repeatedly asked for the exact location of the Gaspé site for nearly 9 months now (I was going to privately fund a re-sampling program, but Jacoby, Cook and others have refused to disclose the location.) Need I comment? Jones et al (1998) Phil Jones stands alone among paleoclimate authors, as a diligent correspondent. I have data and methods from Jones et al 1998. I have a couple of concerns here, which I'm working on. I remain concerned about the basis of series selection - there is an obvious risk of "cherrypicking" data and I'm very unclear what steps, if any, were taken to avoid this. The results for the middle ages don't look robust to me. I have particular concerns with Briffa's Polar Urals series, which takes the 11th century results down (Briffa arguing that 1032 was the coldest year of the millennium). It looks to me like the 11th century data for this series does not meet quality control criteria and Briffa was over-reaching. Without this series, Jones et al. 1998 is high in the 11th century. Note that none of this actually "disproves" the global warming hypothesis. However, it does raise very, very serious questions in my opinion. We are talking about enacting policies to curb global warming that could cost not billions, but trillions of dollars. Shouldn't we at least be allowed to see the source code, the data and ask for replication at a minimum? I think the answer is simple: YES!! Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2029. 2005-04-27 14:03:31 ______________________________________________________ cc: trenbert@ucar.edu date: Wed Apr 27 14:03:31 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: AR4 Question] to: "carl mears" Carl, Kevin is right about the deadlines not being very hard. One thing I would add - in our next draft, we've been asked to supply pdfs of submitted papers and those in press to go with the first order draft (FOD). As I understand reviewers will be able to request these from WGI, if they are essential to their review. I hope and expect that WGI will police this in some way. Anyone can review the FOD, if they sign up, so you can see my concern. So, if we can get a pdf, we'll add it to the load we'll send to WGI. Even the current FOD (which is the partially revised ZOD at the moment and will get finalised following the May 10-12 meeting and subsequent writing for a mid-Aug submission) is at odds with CCSP. Having just gone through and signed off the NRC review of the CCSP VTT report, you will find you (plural here) have a lot to respond to. This review is supposed to be sent off by NRC on 29 April. It would seem your new paper goes some way to addressing some of our concerns. With AR4 not due out till Jan 2007, you can see why we're treating IPCC deadlines for papers being submitted as soft rather than hard. There are 19 months between now and Jan07 ! Through our CAs and other contacts we're aware of many papers in the pipeline, but there will doubtless be many more. Cheers Phil At 02:03 27/04/2005, you wrote: Phil, FYI Kevin ---------------------------- Original Message ---------------------------- Subject: Re: AR4 Question From: trenbert@ucar.edu Date: Tue, April 26, 2005 7:00 pm To: "carl mears" -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Carl Good to hear from you. I believe the cutoff date was 1 May, although the timetable I have says 10 May: I would use that. 10 May is when we meet again in Beijing to begin to finalize the First order draft. To be honest I regard this as a soft deadline: the more critical deadline is to have the paper accepted and in press by the end of the year: actually by 16 December when the last meeting of the Lead Authors takes place. {Even that might be a bit soft as the real deadline is when we put the second order (final) draft to bed in January} Now you will know that if you submit it, and it is critical of UAH reconstruction, that John will do all he can to hold it up and prevent publication. You should alert the editor to this and point out that he has a conflict of interest. It would be bad if the editor did not consult John, but John's views should be timely and carry no weight in the decision. But most editors don't work that way. Now you may also be aware that Qiang Fu has a paper now in press on this topic in GRL. Fu's analysis also suggests that the diurnal temperature correction is flawed in UAH, something I have long suspected. But his analysis is superficial. Even in the ZOD we were critical of UAH in the tropics TLT, and the current draft, which is revised, says similar things. We are trying to look ahead and we are at odds with CCSP at this point. Unfortunately there are many in the community not so enlightened and so we have to be careful in our wording. I look forward to your paper and if you can get it to us by end of next week then that should be fine. Kevin Please also note that our paper on water vapor trends is now in press (It uses RSS SSM/I data: I sent a copy to Frank Wentz but was never sure he received it, please check with him. You can download it from our web site [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas. Kevin > > > Hi Kevin > > I've been talking to some modeling people, and they seem to have a semi-firm > cutoff date (May 30) by when a paper needs to be submitted to a journal in order > to be considered for consideration in the AR4. Does our chapter have a similar > date? Has it already past? I hope not. > > I'm very close to submitting our analysis of MSU TLT that is very different > from > UAH, particularly in the tropics. I think that the UAH diurnal correction is > totally wrong. (Did you know it is of opposite sign from their TMT correction, > complete with a huge seasonal cycle in the tropics). > > Anyway, if you believe our new version, the surface/TLT disconnect in the tropics is resolved. Seems like the AR4 would be immediately out-of-date without this. I hope to have a draft that you could see in a week or so. When > is the LA meeting? > > Thanks > > -Carl > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3437. 2005-04-27 15:05:17 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Elfring, Chris" , "Shiflett, Rachael" , "Greenway, Rob" date: Wed Apr 27 15:05:17 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Temp Trends Report for Final Sign-off to: "Staudt, Amanda" , "Dennis L. Hartmann " , "John Michael Wallace " , "Judith A. Curry " , "Junhong Wang" , "Kenneth Kunkel " , "Richard L. Smith " , "Richard S. Lindzen " , "William Randel" Amanda, Thanks. That has made it very clear. I meant to add one other thing. I enjoyed being on the committee and learnt a lot from the experience. Regards Phil At 14:38 27/04/2005, Staudt, Amanda wrote: Phil, Thanks for your e-mail and sign-off on the report. In response to your question, only the "clean" version will be released to the sponsor and the public. As you correctly guessed, we'll keep the memo and the tracked changes version on file for awhile to refer back to in case there are any questions about how we responded to review. They are considered strictly internal NRC documents and I have not heard of any occasions when these documents are shared publicly. Like other committee correspondence and past report drafts, we ask that you do not share those documents with others outside the committee. This helps preserve the committee's ability to think freely and independently on the topic. Best regards, Amanda ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Amanda Staudt, PhD Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research Council/National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 Phone: (202) 334-2995 Fax: (202) 334-3825 E-mail: astaudt@nas.edu -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Wednesday, April 27, 2005 7:10 AM To: Staudt, Amanda; Dennis L. Hartmann ; John Michael Wallace ; Judith A. Curry ; Junhong Wang; Kenneth Kunkel ; Richard L. Smith ; Richard S. Lindzen ; William Randel Cc: Elfring, Chris; Shiflett, Rachael; Greenway, Rob Subject: Re: Temp Trends Report for Final Sign-off Amanda, Away yesterday and tomorrow, so have gone though this today. I am happy to sign off on this. I looked at the sections (Chs 5 and 3 and the ES) I was involved with. The major upfront substantive comments are also fine. I only had time to scan the other chapters in the tracked version. The responses to the A-F reviewers were interesting to read. Some nicely worded responses to some of the comments from F. Can I check one thing? Will the CCSP team just get the file "TempTrends_4-25-05 clean.doc" ? What happens to the file "TempTrends Review Memo.doc" ? Is it just like a normal 'responses to reviewers' file, so is kept on file by the editor of the journal (in this case NRC) for a while? It is the justification that we did a good job, so is it made publicly available as well? Regards Phil At 22:27 25/04/2005, Staudt, Amanda wrote: >Dear Committee members, > >I have attached a final draft of: Review of the U.S. Climate Change >Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product on Temperature Trends >in the Lower Atmosphere (filename = "TempTrends_4-25-05 clean.doc"). In >addition, I've attached a version with tracked changes (filename = >"TempTrends 4-25-05 tracked.doc") and a document with the accumulated >responses to reviewer comments (filename = "TempTrends Review Memo.doc") >for your reference. > >Please review the clean draft and let me know by Thursday, April 28, >2005 if you are willing to sign off on delivering this report to the >sponsor and making it publicly available. > >If you have any major substantive concerns please let me know ASAP so >that we can resolve them expeditiously. The report will be copy edited >this week, so most of the remaining editorial issues should be take care >of. > >**** Note that if I do not hear from you by close of business on >Thursday, April 28, 2005, I will assume that you have provided your sign >off. **** > >Thanks, >Amanda > >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >Amanda Staudt, PhD >Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate >National Research Council/National Academies >500 Fifth Street, NW >Washington, DC 20001 >Phone: (202) 334-2995 >Fax: (202) 334-3825 >E-mail: astaudt@nas.edu > > > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3834. 2005-04-27 16:47:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Apr 27 16:47:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: FYI to: trenbert@ucar.edu, Dennis Shea Thought it worth reiterating your point that the changes needed were NOT serious. This should have been done by the editor ! GRL reference format has changed ! Probably JGR has changed also. Cheers Phil X-Mailer: MIME::Lite 3.01 (F2.6; B2.11; Q2.03) Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2005 14:40:14 UT To: p.jones@uea.ac.uk Subject: Review Received by Geophysical Research Letters From: grlonline@agu.org Reply-To: kjohnson@agu.org X-Spam-Score: 0.2 X-Spam-Level: / Dear Dr. Jones: Thank you for your review of "Relationships between precipitation and surface temperature" by Kevin Trenberth, Dennis Shea [Paper #2005GL022760R], which we have safely received. A copy of this review is attached below for your reference. Thank you for your time and effort! Sincerely, Naohiro Yoshida Editor Geophysical Research Letters ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Science Category: Science Category 1 Presentation Category: Presentation Category A Annotated Manuscript: No Anonymous: No Referrals: No Confidential Referrals: Highlight: No Preference Highlight: Formal Review: The authors responses are fine and the manuscript should be published. I have one major and one very minor comment at this time. The major one is that neither reviewer raised serious concerns. This manuscript should NOT have been sent back to both sets of reviewers. The minor one is to inform the authors of the change in GRL reference format. Years now go in round brackets after the authors rather than at the end. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 759. 2005-04-27 17:00:36 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Wed, 27 Apr 2005 17:00:36 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: ms ps urgent to: hegerl@duke.edu Hi Gabi - thanks for sending the paper - it should be a good read! Since you should hear soon from Science, I think we can keep this to ourselves. As soon as we can distribute, I'd like at least Eystein to see it, so let us know. Good luck! I'll cross my fingers. best, peck >HI Jonathan and Keith, > >Is it possible to not distribute the ms I just sent >any further than the two >of you for now? Science can be a bit neurotic and I don't want it >to flounder because of distribution! (I don;t know how we are all >supposed to handle the IPCC revision with submitted ms when we >are not supposed to distribute, I am wondering about a Barnett >paper for my chapter, also, for the same purpose - but I';ll probably >send it only to my ocean guy and under promises of secrecy....) > >Gabi > >-------------------------------------------------------------------- >Gabriele Hegerl >Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment >Duke University, Durham NC 27708 >phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 >email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html >--------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3248. 2005-04-28 09:17:24 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tom Crowley , Keith Briffa date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 09:17:24 -0400 (EDT) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: submitted manuscript to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, Yes, I am looking forward to reading your paper - I only heard about you looking into ECHO-G behavior a few days ago - are our findings consistent? THe only thing I did really was check why I need to downscale to match our obs (although the significance of this hinges on estimated degrees of freedoms for the ctl, so it still could be chance but I doubt it) Gabi On Thu, 28 Apr 2005, Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear Gabi and Tom, > > We finished off that paper I told Gabi about (I had Tom's email address > wrong last time), investigating the behaviour of the ECHO-G "Erik" > simulation. It was submitted to Climate Dynamics earlier this week. > > I thought you might be interested to see it, so I've attached a PDF of the > submitted version. It seems that we both submitted our papers at the same > time (Keith told me that you'd submitted yours too)! If it's appropriate > to cross-reference them, then I guess something suitable could be added to > each at the revision stage (assuming reviews are favourable!). > > Best wishes > > Tim > > PS. Keith and I need to talk about which model runs to include in the IPCC > diagram. We'll get back to you when we've talked. > -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- 5220. 2005-04-28 10:48:21 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 10:48:21 -0400 from: Gabi Hegerl subject: Re: submitted manuscript to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, I definitely want to cite this paper! Right now, my paper only has pers com for the ECHO-G sensitivity being similar to our EBM sensitivity of 2.5 in the electronic supplement - that definitely needs a citation (and science wants written permission for pers coms so I postponed that to the revised version, but a paper to cite is much better anyway - I should have asked you but had run out of time so postponed that.....sorry!!!). I am still a bit nonplussed that this model has relatively high decadal variability (more than our reconstruction unforced residual) and a quite modest sensitivity - do you know why? (Suki had this theory based on stochastic climate model theory that level of variability is related to climate sensitivity so high sens high var, but it seems to not always work like this) paper looks nice - I don't think it affects our main result that the reconstruction technique works since for that test the model only needs somewhat decent teleconnections but not necessarily everything realistic) - I thought there must be some drift in one of the runs because the inter runs variability has a trend which makes no sense unless one of the runs drift. But I need to consider your results when looking again at my single fingerprint detection - I don't think it changes things, but it will change discussion of differences a bit - although i think that the overestimated volcanism is probably partly due to forcing differences. Gabi Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear Gabi and Tom, > > We finished off that paper I told Gabi about (I had Tom's email > address wrong last time), investigating the behaviour of the ECHO-G > "Erik" simulation. It was submitted to Climate Dynamics earlier this > week. > > I thought you might be interested to see it, so I've attached a PDF of > the submitted version. It seems that we both submitted our papers at > the same time (Keith told me that you'd submitted yours too)! If it's > appropriate to cross-reference them, then I guess something suitable > could be added to each at the revision stage (assuming reviews are > favourable!). > > Best wishes > > Tim > > PS. Keith and I need to talk about which model runs to include in the > IPCC diagram. We'll get back to you when we've talked. > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html 2407. 2005-04-29 09:25:08 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Apr 29 09:25:08 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: AGG Recommendations to: Hans Teunissen Hans, This email bounced from Bruno's site. His email is Rudolf Bruno . Is Bruno on AGG? Probably doesn't matter as you'll send out the AGG recommendations to all of AOPC soon. Maybe you can highlight the extra things people said they would (e.g Carolina, she may be the only one) follow up. Cheers Phil Hans, Attached is David's file with a few additional changes. 1. OK to have unique in the section on Calculation of mean monthly stats. 2. I've removed the tongue-in-cheek sentence. I still expect Tom to send details to Mike at the end of September though. 3. I would go with your suggestion of adding Willis Is. to the GUAN, so approach Australia. Keep Townsville in the network though. 4. Finally wrt certificates, the AGG report should include the values for X and Y finally used by Tom to decide which GSN and GUAN sites get which stars on their certificates. Cheers Phil At 14:45 28/04/2005, Parker, David (Met Office) wrote: Hans Thanks. I have made a few changes which don't relate to your comments below. I think the 2nd paragraph under GUAN on page 5 aims to check that stations haven't become silent. If there are, say, 8 stations missing in each month, then if these stations differ from month to month then the stations are not silent, whereas if the same stations are always missing, then they are silent. I'm easy about Willis Island. Regards David On Thu, 2005-04-28 at 13:16, Hans Teunissen wrote: > Phil: > > Attached for your (and AGGs) comment is a copy of the AGG recs from > the AOPC session, following my copy editing of your version of > Thursday 14th. A few queries/commets: > > - I added the adjective 'unique' in the first sentence in first para > under 'Calculation of mean monthly statistics....' (p.2), in deference > to the 'advice' provided by things such as the Guide to Climatological > Practices (1983) (which in fact suggests it 'both' ways, depending on > the circumstances); or do you want to keep it as strong as it is now? > > - I assume 2nd para under C) (p.3) is tongue-in-cheek....? > > - what does 2nd para under GUAN (p.5) mean? > > - I've added the 5th para shown under GUAN on p. 5. I think it was > discussed, but perhaps outside the 'main' meeting. Willis Island has > been fully refurbished, at considerable expense, and it would be very > helpful to Australia for us to request its inclusion. We could ask for > it to *replace* Townsville, but I for one think that would be a > mistake - better to have 'over dense' than to regret having dropped a > station that's free to us (for now, anyway). Does AGG agree with what > I've put there? If so, the SG will write to Australia PR requesting > that Willis Island be added to GUAN. > > I'll finalize this version and send to all AOPC as soon as I have your > (and others') responses/comments. > > Cheers, > > Hans. > > > > > > ================================================================= > Dr. Hans W. Teunissen Tel: > +41.22.730.8086 > Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Fax: +41.22.730.8052 > c/o World Meteorological Organization E-mail: > HTeunissen@wmo.int > 7 bis, Ave. de la Paix > CP 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2 > Switzerland > ================================================================= -- David E Parker A2_W052 Met Office FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK email: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4608. 2005-04-29 10:30:20 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Apr 29 10:30:20 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: HC to: Ben Santer Ben, Tom was here yesterday. He said you were going to the CCSP meeting for a day in Chicago, then flying on to the UK for the HC meeting May 18-19 (and 17th evening). Do you still want to come on up to Norwich afterwards? Glad to hear from Tom you've been writing up your CCSP chapter and extending it significantly. He gave me a brief summary. I signed off yesterday on the CCSP report. You should be getting it through Tom Karl later today, or by Monday. As I did Ch 5, if you want to check anything with me feel free to. I wasn't able to stop some comments being put in by Lindzen, but Tom has a paper as does Myles which are enough to ignore his and the Douglass papers. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1674. 2005-05-01 21:23:55 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 1 May 2005 21:23:55 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Fwd: Papers of potential interest to the AR4 to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >Envelope-to: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >Date: Sun, 01 May 2005 01:10:03 -0500 >Subject: Papers of potential interest to the AR4 >From: Noah Diffenbaugh >To: , >CC: > >Dear Drs Overpeck and Jansen: > >I have attached pdfs of 4 papers that may be of interest to the Paleoclimate >chapter of the AR4. > >Thank you! >Noah > >-------------------- > >The papers are: > >Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and L.C. Sloan, Mid-Holocene orbital forcing of >regional-scale climate: a case study of western North America using a >high-resolution RCM, Journal of Climate, 17(15), 2927-2937, 2004. > >This study used a regional climate model to test the response of >regional-scale climate processes to mid-Holocene orbital forcing. We found >summer warming of 1 to 2.5 šC over most of the western United States, >suggesting that observed regional mid-Holocene temperature change can be >explained by direct orbital forcing alone, independent of climate system >feedbacks. In contrast, positive anomalies in mean annual P-E were in >disagreement with proxy reconstructions from the Pacific coast, suggesting >that direct orbital forcing of regional-scale atmospheric processes was not >the sole influence shaping the mid-Holocene moisture record of the Pacific >coast. > > >Diffenbaugh, Noah S., J.L. Bell and L.C. Sloan, Simulated changes in extreme >temperature and precipitation events at 6 ka, Palaeogeography, >Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, preliminarily accepted to special issue, >December 2004. > >This study used a regional climate model to test the response of extreme >climate events to mid-Holocence orbital forcing, using the western North >America as a case study. We found that anomalies in annual extreme >precipitation event frequency were mostly positive throughout the region, as >were differences in extreme event contribution to total annual >precipitation. We also found large positive anomalies in extreme hot events, >with days in which the maximum daily temperature exceeded 32 šC 24 % more >frequent in the 6 ka integration and heat waves lasting up to 12 days >longer. We propose that such changes in the frequency and duration of >extreme climate events could have played a substantial role in shaping >paleoclimate records from a variety of regions. > > >Diffenbaugh, Noah S., L.C. Sloan and M.A. Snyder, Orbital suppression of >wind driven upwelling in the California Current at 6 ka, Paleoceanography, >18(2), 1051, 10.1019/2002PA000865, 2003. > >This study used a regional climate model to test the response of wind driven >upwelling in the California Current to Mid Holocene orbital forcing. The >seasonality of modern California Current wind driven coastal upwelling >simulated by the RCM is in strong agreement with observational data. >Further, we show that changes in the seasonality of solar insolation induced >by mid-Holocene Milankovitch forcing decrease early and peak season coastal >upwelling in the California Current, along with increasing late season >coastal upwelling. These results are in agreement with several marine and >terrestrial proxies, suggesting that, relative to present, California >Current activity during the mid-Holocene was characterized by a longer and >less vigorous upwelling season, with decreased seasonal contrast. > > >Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and L.C. Sloan, Global climate sensitivity to land >surface change: The Mid Holocene revisited, Geophysical Research Letters, >29(10), 1476, 10.1029/2002GL014880, 2002. > >This study tests the response of large-scale atmospheric processes to a >global mid-Holocene vegetation distribution reconstructed from the fossil >record. Large areas of the globe showed statistically significant >temperature sensitivity to these land surface changes, with the magnitude of >the vegetation forcing equal to the magnitude of 6 ka orbital forcing, >emphasizing the importance of accurate land surface distribution for both >model validation and future climate prediction. > >-- >Dr. Noah S. Diffenbaugh >Assistant Professor >Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences >550 Stadium Mall Drive >Purdue University >West Lafayette, IN, 47907-2051 > >(765) 494-0754 (office) >(765) 494-2434 (lab) >(765) 496-1210 (fax) > >diffenbaugh@purdue.edu >http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~ndiffenb > > > > > -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Diffenbaugh_PA_03.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Diffenbaugh_JoC_04.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Diffenbaugh_GRL_02.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\nsd_p3_ms.pdf" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3748. 2005-05-03 08:25:41 ______________________________________________________ cc: Beck Christoph , Rudolf Bruno date: Tue May 3 08:25:41 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: AW: Your views appreciated to: Grieser Jürgen Jurgen, Bruno and Christoph, Thanks for the comments. The'll be discussed at the WGI IPCC meeting next week (May 10-12). Cheers Phil At 16:42 29/04/2005, Grieser Jürgen wrote: Dear Phil, Bruno forwarded your todays email to me and I am very glad to be asked to reply. Pls find my comments in the attached word document. In case of further questions, comments, etc. pls don't hesitat to contact me again. Best regards from Christoph Beck, Bruno Rudolf and myself, Jürgen. ******************************************** Dr. Juergen Grieser Global Precipitation Climatology Centre GPCC Deutscher Wetterdienst P.O.Box 10 04 65 63004 Offenbach Germany Tel.: +49 -69 8062 2873 Fax: +49 -69 8062 3759 Web: [1]http://gpcc.dwd.de <[2]http://gpcc.dwd.de/> ******************************************** -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- Von: Rudolf Bruno Gesendet am: Freitag, 29. April 2005 13:39 An: 'Phil Jones' Cc: Grieser Jürgen Betreff: AW: Your views appreciated Hi Phil, thank you for contacting us. A very first quick reply: Yes, what you called the fixed stations versions should be used for the purpose discussed. We call it 50 year climatology, because it is optimized for homogeneity, and it is THE only of our products recommended to use it for climate variability (trend) studies. And relative anomaly is used for interpolation for this product. Juergen Grieser will send a more complete reply on the 50 year climatology. The Monitoring Product and Full Data Product are based on interpolation of precipitation totals because we had no normals for many of the stations with data for the recent years. For the recent years, most data are only available from SYNOP, and the accuracy of those is very low. Compared to normals, we partly obtain unrealistic anomalies, which are spatially exported by gridding. Maps resulting from the anomaly maps combined with normal maps showed some curious structures, whil the results from direct interpolation was still plausible. This assessment is based on earlier studies. We will do the methods comparison again for the currebt version of the full data basis. But whatever one does in analysis: if the gauge data base (number of stations) is very different in time, one will not get a homogeneous product (my opinion). Cheers, Bruno -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- Von: Phil Jones [[3]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Gesendet am: Freitag, 29. April 2005 11:16 An: Rudolf Bruno Betreff: Your views appreciated Bruno, Shortly after AOPC, I was back with my IPCC hat on modifying text based on reviews of our first zero-order draft. I go to Beijing the week after next for the next Lead Author's meeting. By mid-August, we will have a new draft (the first-order one) which can be downloaded by anyone over an 8-week period then. I expect many hundreds will and there will be thousands of comments. That was some background ! I sent your email about VasClimO to some of the people we've involved as contributing authors (CAs) and also to our Lead Author for our precipitation section. Our LA for this is Dave Easterling. The details also went to Aiguo Dai (who is with Kevin Trenberth at NCAR). My intention was to alert this group to your latest work at GPCC. I said that your dataset from 1951 was likely the best available. Our chapter currently has trend maps for 1901-2004 and 1979-2004 from GHCN gridded fields (Dave Easterling produced these). Dave hasn't responded on this yet. The point of this email is to get your views on the email below from Aiguo Dai. We will almost certainly have some time series plots from different data sources including GPCC, GHCN, maybe CRU and Chen et al.. What I would like before I leave for China on May 7 (so by middle of next week) are your brief views on some of these other products (e.g. Chen et al. 2002, GPCPv2 from Adler et al., 2003)? Would you recommend using your fixed station version? I am very sympathetic to the view that you should grid using anomalies. Can you briefly say why you didn't? If the answers to all these questions are in the report, tell me and I'll read it. I've not had time to yet. I am just trying to get all the views together for the Beijing meeting. I expect Kevin Trenberth will want to accept what Aiguo says. For the moment, just reply to me. Cheers Phil Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 16:17:07 -0600 From: Aiguo Dai Organization: NCAR, Boulder, CO User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 (ax) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Phil Jones CC: trenberth@ucar.edu, Peter Ambenje , Roxana Bojariu , David Easterling , David Parker , Fatemeh Rahimzadeh , Jim Renwick , Matilde Rusticucci , Brian Soden , Panmao Zhai , Albert Klein Tank , Aiguo Dai Subject: Re: Fwd: News about GPCC X-Spam-Score: 1.3 X-Spam-Level: + Dear Phil et al.: Based on my reading of their tech, report, GPCC is still gridding the total monthly precipitation amounts instead of anomalies. Many people (e.g., Jones and Hulme 1996; Chen et al. 2002) have shown that it is much better to grid the anomalies besides different gridding methods, even for temperature. GPCC argues that gridding monthly anomalies is better for some regions but worse for other regions, which I can not understand. Because of this griding method, one can not use their version 3 full data product for assessing climate changes (because addition or removal of wet/dry stations will have large impacts on regional estimates of precipitation), while their version with fixed stations (9343, but still 10% of the years may have missing data) does not make full use of the available data. For example Chen et al. (2002) and GHCHv2 use more than 10,000 gauges from 1948-around 1993 (over 15,000 during the 1960s and 1970s). I strongly recommend GPCC to grid anomalies using all available gauge data for each month. Maybe they can listen to people like Phil? There appears to be large differences among various estiamtes for global (land) precipitation for the last several years (1997-present), partly because of limited number of raingages available. The attached figure compares land precip during 1979-2002 from Chen et al. (2002), CRU (New et al., Mitchell et al.) and GPCP v2 (Adler et al. 2003, with climatological corrections for wind-induced undercatch). I think it would be useful to add both the Chen et al. (1948-present) and the new GPCC (1951-2000, the fixed station version) analyses into the precip plots of IPCC chapter 3. Regards, Aiguo Dai Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 938. 2005-05-03 11:04:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue May 3 11:04:19 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: 2005JD005799 Decision Letter to: Craig Wallace Not good news on our JGR paper. I've only scanned them so far - rev2 is good, rev3 is biased because he/she doesn't see the point of pattern scaling, but rev1 makes some valid criticisms. We need to read these in detail and decide what can be done. Tim X-Mailer: MIME::Lite 3.01 (F2.6; B2.11; Q2.03) Date: Mon, 2 May 2005 18:56:53 UT To: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Subject: 2005JD005799 Decision Letter From: jgr-atmospheres@agu.org Reply-To: jgr-atmospheres@agu.org X-Spam-Score: 0.2 X-Spam-Level: / Content-Disposition: inline Content-Length: 6317 Content-Transfer-Encoding: binary Content-Type: text/plain Dear Dr. Osborn: Enclosed please find 3 evaluations on your manuscript entitled "Linear and exponential relationships between global temperature change and patterns of precipitation change" [Paper #2005JD005799]. After careful consideration, based on the reviewers' recommendations of your manuscript, I am sorry to inform you that I have decided to reject it for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. If you wish to resubmit this paper, please note that you will need to send a point-by-point response to all of the reviewer's criticisms. In this case, your manuscript will then be treated as a new submission. I am sorry I cannot be more positive. Sincerely, Ruth Lieberman Editor, JGR-Atmospheres ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Reviewer #1 Evaluations: Assessment: Category 5 Ranking: Select one Annotated Manuscript: No Reviewer #1(Comments): Though this paper is one if the best-written papers I have received for review lately, I must recommend that this paper NOT be accepted for the following reasons: The data in the paper do not support the authors' conclusion that the mixed scaling "replicates GCM data better", there is no attempt at cross-validation, there is no physical basis for the curve-fit, and in fact it is logically inconsistent, and finally, the metrics of goodness-of-fit given here are weak. I addresss each of these points in more detail below, and finish with some techincal points. However, the authors did convince me that an improvement on linear extrapolation would be useful, as well as of the need to develop better metrics. Their method, and this paper fall short, however. Everything presented in this paper is a fit to data, with no cross-validation. That is, the authors do not do not address the problem of extrapolation. Yet this is critical for the applications of this technique. For example, they could have trained the fit on delta-T up to 1K and then "predicted" the higher values. This is purely an exercise in curve fitting. There is no physical basis other than that p>0. To get an idea of the pitfalls of this approach, consider the following thought experiment: Suppose we had run the GCM experiments in reverse -- starting with high values of global temperatures and decreasing GHGs, and suppose that the GCM's followed the same trajectory down the GHG curve as they did up. Where precipitation increased in the "normal" set of runs it would decrease in the "reversed" set. According to the logic of this paper, you would fit the curve with a linear function in the first case and with an exponential in the second case. Yet it would be the same data that you are fitting in two different ways! Their conclusion that the mixed linear-exponential model can " replicate GCM data better" is not supported by the evidence in this paper. The performance of the mixed model was at best...mixed. It depended on the GCM, and even then it depended in an unpredictable way on the actual temperature change. I quote: "Given the clear curvature of local precipitation changes (with respect to global temperature) for HadCM3, it is surprising that the global-mean precipitation is quite linearly related to delta-T, and the exponential and mixed functions are not as food fits as the linear function. For the NCAR PCM model, the slight curvature of the global precipitation-temperature relationship is reasonably captured by the mixed function for delta-T < 1.4K, and by the exponential function for delta-T > 1.6K, but the linear sclaing is a poor fit throughout." Clearly the fit doesn't work for one model, and for another it is dependent on the temperature change in an unpredictable way. No overall metric of goodness of fit - such as mean-square error - is presented. Only "extremes" of drying and wetting -- a small percentage of the globe-- and global-mean precipitation (a weak metric that hits method doesn't really do well at) are looked at. Since the mixed functional fit is "worse" for the HadCM3 globally, then there must be many local regions where their fit is not good at all. Technical points: The method is not documented clearly enough to reproduce. In the title, abstract and in the text clearly state where this temperature is being measured. Is it surface air temperature, surface temperature, or some other measure of global mean temperature? p<6mm/mon (0.2mm/day) ignored. What is the impact of this? Why was this done? If the attempt is to get better scaling for extremes then why exclude the dryest areas? 50 year sliding boxcar(?) window means that the samples used in the fits are not independent. The SRES A2 scenario extends out to the year 2100 -- so there are 3 (1950 - 2100) independent samples. I am not sure whether they have taken this into account in their statistical test if Figure 1. The authors do not mention the length of the runs that they used. Reviewer #2 Evaluations: Assessment: Category 2 Ranking: Very Good Annotated Manuscript: No Reviewer #2(Comments): Review of "Linear and exponential relationships between global temperature change and patterns of precipitation changes" by Osborn and Wallace. This is a well-written, succinct paper that makes some useful points relevant to scaling patterns of precipitation change, and I recommend its publication almost without change. The only changes that I suggest are: 1. ON page 1,line 4, I find it stylistically better to say, "the rate of precipitation decrease tends to decrease .... " 2. On page 2, lines 11-12, I would write, "or WHEN the regional pattern of sulphate aerosol forcing changes through time [ ], although for some models the regional temperature response to aerosol forcing is governed by the pattern of climate feedbacks triggered by overall warming, rather than by the forcing pattern [Harvey, 2004] 3. Page 4, 2nd last line, I find it stylistically better to say, "with a decreasing rate of change ...." Reference: Harvey, L.D.D. 2004. Characterizing the annual-mean climatic effect of anthropogenic CO2 and aerosol emissions in eight coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs. Climate Dynamics 23: 569-599. Reviewer #3 Evaluations: Assessment: Category 5 Ranking: Poor Annotated Manuscript: No 3386. 2005-05-03 13:13:04 ______________________________________________________ cc: Nick Brooks , "Thomas C Peterson" , Richard Thigpen , date: Tue May 3 13:13:04 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Western Sahara to: "Hans Teunissen" Hans, I told Nick Brooks who works here at UEA that I would forward his email to someone. You'll need to read his email to see the idea and I'll elaborate on the potential problems. The major problem is that the 'country' isn't one in the strictest sense. It is a UN protectorate of sorts. There are all sorts of issues of stepping on toes - Morroco for a start. Apparently you can get to the 'country' through Mauritania as well as Algeria. Being a UN agency you may be able to find out what the problems might be. As there are very little or no data, there are no GCOS sites. There is probably nothing we can do, but maybe someone will have some bright idea. Cheers Phil From: Nick Brooks Subject: Re: Western Sahara Project enquiry Date: Tue, 3 May 2005 11:39:57 +0100 To: Phil Jones X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.619.2) Dear Phil Thanks for forwarding this to me; I'll get back to the person in question. I've been meaning to contact you about Western Sahara in any case. On my last trip there in March this year I was struck by how green it was. According to Stefan Kroepelin, who came with me, the vegetation where we were, between about 20 and 25 degrees N, was equivalent to that beginning at 16 degrees N in the eastern Sahara. The locals talk about rain and drought, and apparently every couple of years they get the tail end of the summer monsoon rains. The also get some winter rain, presumably associated with the Atlantic westerlies that water Morocco. All the climatological charts show Western Sahara as hyper arid, much like the central Sahara at the same latitudes. This is probably not surprising, given that there are no data for the region, except for one met station on the coast where coastal upwelling is associated with subsidence. So I suspect that our understanding of the rainfall and climate of this part of northern Africa needs to be revised. I know CRU are not in the business of setting up met stations, but thought perhaps you knew people in the Met Office who might be interested in this. I work in what is known locally as the "free zone", which is the part not occupied my Morocco (most of the country is). I have excellent relations with the Polisario, who run this part of Western Sahara from Algeria, and it would be no problem to set up some observing stations from the point of view of bureaucracy - all we need are the resources, some expertise, and equipment that can be left to its own devices for long periods. I don't know how much this would cost though. Feel free to forward this to the relevant people if you think it might be worth pursuing. I think this would be a worthwhile exercise in the name of better observational data from Africa, and this almost never-visited region might yield some interesting results regarding monsoon sensitivity and oscillation of the monsoon limit. All the best Nick Dr Nick Brooks Senior Research Associate, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Assistant Director, UEA Saharan Studies Programme School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: +44 1603 593904 Fax: +44 1603 593901 Email: nick.brooks@ueaa.ac.uk Tyndall website: [1]http://www.tyndall.ac.uk Saharan Studies Programme: [2]http://www.uea.ac.uk/sahara Personal website: [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~e118/welcome.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4565. 2005-05-04 09:53:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 04 May 2005 09:53:42 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Past Millennia Reconstructions to: Christoph Kull , rbradley@geo.umass.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, tcrowley@duke.edu Dear Christoph, Thanks--this looks good. Only one thing I would want to take issue with; that's the 2nd bullet under "Accepted Robust Findings": "There is evidence for periods of cooling (e.g. LIA) and warming (e.g. MWP)." This statement is somewhat problematic For one thing, it's a tautology, because there "has" to be both a warmest and coldest interval in any regional or hemispheric reconstruction, but as many of us have pointed out in past work, it is not very useful to simply label these "MWP" and "LIA" when they vary from region to region. Even the hemispheric reconstructions are not even in agreement as to what the precise timing was of the warmest or coldest periods (compare Esper et al, Moberg et al, Jones et al, etc.). Moreover, spatial reconstructions and hemispheric reconstructions do not agree on the timing of the minima/maxima, and so its not clear what we mean by "LIA" and "MWP" if we're not absolutely specific (Europe, Northern Hemisphere mean? Southern Hemisphere mean??). I suggest deleting this bullet, as it doesn't add anything. The relevant points, in my opinion, are already raised in the "background" and accompanying figure. I'd be interested in what others' thoughts are, Mike At 09:25 AM 5/4/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear all, After having already received some feedbacks to the message below, I would like to ask you about your comments. If possible, we would appreciate your input to the attached draft document on "Proxy based climate reconstructions and modeling A PAGES view and a basis for future activities" by end of May. Thanks a lot for your effort, all the best and greetings from Bern, Christoph > Dear all, > After discussing the issue of past climate variability during the past years, > this topic remained a burning issue for PAGES, CLIVAR, the wider scientific > community and the public. > Especially the fact, that the late 20th century warmth is most probably > anomalous in the context of the past 1,000-2,000 years fuelled this > discussion. Significant differences and uncertainties exist, however, between > various estimates with regard to both empirical reconstructions and model > simulations. > PAGES gets often contacted in order to make a statement on those different > approaches, results and related implications. In fact, it is impossible to > have a short answer prepared and quite often, our reply remains a statement > about the different approaches used and the range of conclusions. > The PAGES IPO would therefore like to promote and prepare a widely agreed > statement on that topic, thereby not judging the different approaches, but > extracting the robust findings, their degree of (un)certainty, still open > questions, and especially strategies for future activities to answer them. > It is the idea to have this statement finally signed by the key-players in > this field (e.g. you! And others). This short note would afterwards be > available as the PAGES viewpoint to the different published results. > Furthermore, this "general agreement" could be used as a basis for discussions > for future related activities. > The PAGES IPO in Bern prepared a first DRAFT (attached) while discussing > this issue with the University of Bern scientists. > > We would highly acknowledge your edits, comments etc. on the attached document > in order to finally have a broadly accepted statement available on our > web-page. > > Thanks a lot for your research and finally your related effort for > PAGES! > > All the best and greetings from Bern, > Christoph -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4133. 2005-05-04 11:15:32 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 4 May 2005 11:15:32 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments from David Rind to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi Chap 6 Colleagues - Eystein will be sending out a email from him and me tomorrow, so please look for it - it gives an overview of what you should be prepared to do at the meeting, and what preparation before the meeting should be completed. We're assuming you have already read all the comments that have been sent (both from official reviewers and from each other). You should have all of these. Eystein will also send a logistics email about Monday. I've sent him my input for these two emails this morning. It turns out that David Rind won't be able to join us in Beijing for some US bizarre government rules. I'm leaving his email intact so you can read about the frustrating catch-22 he is in. It also reveals how the US government is working - not the democracy we grew up with. MORE IMPORTANTLY, David has provided some sage input for our discussions in Beijing. PLEASE READ and think about the issues he raises. Dominique and Jean Claude will both be unable to join us for health reasons. I join you all in hoping that they get better soon. If they are able to send any comments for us to consider, they will. Please keep an eye out for Eystein's email tomorrow, and in the meantime, make sure you've read all the comments, and that you BRING them ALL to the meeting. Thanks, Peck X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 Date: Wed, 27 Apr 2005 15:02:45 -0400 To: Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen From: David Rind Subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Review comments Hi Jonathan and Eystein, First a quick word about my situation (or lack thereof), and then some comments about the reviews. Apparently the typhoid vaccine will finally become available in the near future, perhaps as early as later this week. However, it's a moot point - NASA requires a 2 month lead time for international travel, so the timing is fine for a China meeting in August (which Ron Miller here at GISS will now be able to go to), but not for anything before July. If there was any flexibility here (and Jim Hansen was not allowed to go to India with a 2 week lead-time) it would not apply to me, because I don't yet have a 'government' passport. I could not get the government passport ahead of time because it is only issued in conjunction with approved international travel, which starts with the medical clearance. Nobody will say so directly, but I bet the reason it wasn't available (and as I was told, many travelers were 'inconvenienced'), was that the government was stockpiling it in case of a terrorist attack on the water supply. [It truly wasn't available - not here in NY, nor in several other cities along the east coast where I had friends call up and ask - as the people at the Cornell Medical Center told me it wouldn't be. The fact that they were so sure implied to me they knew what was going on.] Anyway - I'll do what I can in conjunction with whatever comes out of the meeting - and I've already sent you my opinions about the document as it stands, as well as the overlap with chapters 2 (primarily the solar forcing), and chapter 9. I looked at chapter 10 (the other chapter I'm the liaison for), and there are just a few points of overlap which could be discussed some other time. As far as the reviews are concerned: 1)The suggestion about reorganizing the chapter should be considered seriously - there are many points over overlap, and some inconsistently from one section to another - but I don't know that one suggested format (to go by historical time period) is proper either. For one thing, it is boring, and it will also lead many readers to just ignore sections prior to the last 1000 years (as NOAA apparently is already doing!). The ability to understand and model more extreme climates is an important part of why the paleochapter is here - if climate warms by 4°C in the next 100 years, looking at the climate, the consequences, and modeling capability for climate changes of 0.5°C does not help very much. I've already laid out what I think the inconsistencies are, and we could work to merge sections that really have repetition, but I think it is important to evaluate models over the suite of time-scales, forcings and magnitudes of response that paleoclimate situations offer. Having it together I think gives readers a sense of what models can and cannot do, and the uncertainties. If these are all relegated to their individual time-slices, I think you lose that perspective. I also like having the Synthesis and Implications for Climate change combine ideas from the different time periods - it gives paleoclimate studies more of an unified feel, as if it were a real discipline rather than a bunch of people doing their own time-period thing. That's necessary for IPCC, and necessary for the outside community to see as well. So I would vote for keeping the general order, but eliminating the overlap and inconsistencies in ways that seem most reasonable. 2) Concerning the hockey stick (which took up probably 3/4 of the review pages!): what Mike Mann continually fails to understand, and no amount of references will solve, is that there is practically no reliable tropical data for most of the time period, and without knowing the tropical sensitivity, we have no way of knowing how cold (or warm) the globe actually got. (And similarly, without knowing the tropical sensitivity for the LGM, we don't know what it's global cooling was, and without knowing it for 2xCO2, we don't know what the future sensitivity would be.) It cannot be reconstructed with any confidence from the extratropical response, even if we were to know that well, because the extratropical response is partly driven by in situ feedbacks, so can occur with a variety of tropical responses. [We have a paper in press (two papers, actually), discussing this aspect - I've actually sent them to IPCC and several of the chapter leads with respect to their discussions of AO/NAO variations with climate.] Therefore the detailed comments Mike provides concerning the extratropical issues - how much does snow cover alter the ground temperature versus the surface air temperature - are to some extent beside the point. I've made the comment to Mike several times, but it doesn't seem to get across - during the 20th century, according to Jim Hansen's temperature reconstruction, the tropical warming has been 60% of that in the extratropics (and that includes the amplifying AO/NAO extratropical change). I believe that in Mike's reconstruction, it averages about 30%. How well we know the numbers for the first part of this century is also somewhat uncertain, so I can't say Mike is wrong - but the point is, I don't know that he's right, nor do I think anybody else knows either. So what should we do about it? Basically I think we should indicate that there are conflicting views concerning the actual global climate change during this time period - quote the references (including the one's Mike provides), note that there are uncertainties concerning the magnitude of the extratropical response, and that there is a paucity of tropical data - and leave it at that. Unsatisfying, perhaps, since people will want to know whether 1200 AD was warmer than today, but if the data doesn't exist, the question can't yet be answered. A good topic for needed future work. 3) Concerning Mike's comment about the importance of volcanism for the 17th century cooling - again, what is the evidence for the aerosol optical depth? Everything is indirect, so much so that different authors come up with very different values, as I've quoted in the chapter. The safest and most honest approach for this and other similar subjects, is that when something is uncertain we should say it. I know uncertainty lies in the eyes of the beholder, but I think it will also be found in the eyes of the reviewers, and here I would suggest a democratic approach - let's not use one person's dogmatic view, but by quoting what the community thinks (as in the case of solar forcing), let the uncertainty be made apparent. And if there is uncertainty in the ice sheet reconstruction (e.g., how different are the U of Maine results), we should say that as well. I'm not suggesting we don't use our understanding to evaluate what has been published - if it is clear to the community as a whole that a segment of the differing results are clearly inferior, we should say that - and offer the proof the community has provided. 4) And the question of dogmatism versus uncertainty extends to modeling results, particularly (though not only) in the case of EMIC results, and results using coupled ice sheet models, or vegetation models (e.g., Colin Prentice's comments). Both mechanistically and theoretically, there are major uncertainties in the results from such models - matching of time scales and resolution for ice sheets, understanding the way plants actually operate, and all the simplifications inherent in EMICs - these should be emphasized to be conceptual results primarily. I discussed this at some length with Peter Stone, who himself runs an EMIC, and is very familiar with all of them, and he agreed entirely. What this means in practice is that results that are obtained through the use of such models not be given the dogmatic air of 'explaining' the problem, but rather of suggesting an explanation. It leaves the question open for further understanding, which I think is the most accurate approach. For GCMs, as in the prediction chapter, the use of a variety of models giving different answers already makes it clear that there is uncertainty in their results. That covers the majority of the comments. Note that "Batch B" is not about our chapter, as far as I could tell. David -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 2359. 2005-05-04 14:28:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed May 4 14:28:54 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: A quick question if i may. to: R.Platt@geo.hull.ac.uk At 23:55 03/05/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr Briffa Hi Rob I know its marking season, but i wonder if you might answer me a few quick questions. will have to be brief , 'cause got to go to China at weekend and need to do loads of stuff before Having conducted some reading into the climate change debate, i became rather unstuck as i found myself reading in energy and environment of the rejection of mann's climate curve by mckintyre and mckittrick last year. This led me to look into more of the proxy data records, yours being one them. As i read the various discussion i suddenly had a thought, and i'm not sure where to get an answer so i hope you don't mind me asking you. Of course not I may be rather over simplifying dendrochronolgy, but am i correct to believe that the signal for temperature is based simply on the size of the tree ring, or is it more complex than this. It is often mean width of rings from many trees at a site , averaged for each year AFTER measurements have been processed to remove geometric bias due to rings getting thinner as they are laid down round an increasing circumference ie young (inner trunk) rings are thicker and older (outer trunk) rings are progressively thinner - even in constant climate. Maximum ring density (hardness of wood - related to how densely packed the cells are and how wide their cells walls are) is also used , and also has a geometric bias that needs to be accounted for. If its not, surely the size of the tree ring, which represents growth during a certain season, can be affected by many, if not all environmental parameters. This is a much discussed , and potentially true , issue. In fact, many theoretical models of tree growth (such as the vegetation schemes used in some large climate models) assume that tree productivity (and hence carbon sequestration) increases as CO2 increases. There is conflicting literature arguing that we can , and can not, observe such changes (over and above the influence of climate) on the growth rates of some trees in the late 20th century. Any "fertilizing" effect , such as the increased transport of nitrogen compounds to higher latitudes (that might be expected to be nitrogen poor) from increasing industrialisation might be expected to result in increased tree growth , possibly exaggerating (or obscuring) the apparent role of warming in causing modern ring widths in these areas to increase. However , while direct fertilization in trees (by N,P,K ) undoubtedly causes increased ring widths (in the absence of other limitation such as by water shortage) , it is still hotly debated as to whether the controlled greenhouse experiments , or open top chamber experiments using increased CO2 levels, actually indicate any real evidence of fertilization (except perhaps for very brief periods). It is interesting to note , that stomatal density changes have been used to infer past atmospheric CO2 levels , during the last 10000 years, suggesting that trees adapt to the ambient CO2 , and so may not simply increase in growth proportionately. Could an increase in carbon in the atmosphere therefore give the same result as an increase in temperature? How can one distinguish the two? and what would this mean for our understanding of proxy based climate change? We can not give a definitive answer as of yet , but the general idea is to attempt to separate them using statistical techniques . The short answer is that we should not rule out the possibility that the apparent increase in 20thcentury tree growth around the world , might be partly due to higher CO2 levels. Any thoughts would be gratefully received. Cheers. In fact the issues are much more complex , due to the confounding effects of the need to manipulate tree-ring measurements before environmental interpretation , and because various aspects of the environment have shown (partly parallel ) trends over the 20th century but I have to do other stuff now Rob cheers Keith -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1817. 2005-05-04 15:41:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed May 4 15:41:53 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: ppt for LA2 to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Finally gotten around to putting thoughts down. Mostly on the challenges slides at the start. Maybe you would have said these things. 1. As well as suggesting the model chapters rank models (I don't think they will go with this - even though it is what we should be doing, and there are a whole raft of issues as to how to do it) should we also be dismissing observational papers that are clearly wrong (or a distortion of the facts and emphasizing the wrong issues). In some parts of our chapter, we omit the poor papers. Just stressing that we are doing an assessment and not a review. An assessment is our expert view of the science at the present. For space limitations we must omit many papers, but we must do this objectively. In the NRC review I made the point that most of the papers reviewed were the author's own. It is difficult and we must not fall into that trap. All this again comes back to assessment/review. With 3.4.1 we mustn't get caught up in having to agree with the CCSP VTT report. We're either doing OUR assessment or we might as well give up. Gone on for long enough on that one. 2. I think we both believe we should be saying somewhere what we should be measuring (how accurately, where and with what). If we don't say this somewhere, AR5 will be in a worse state. Susan is against this, but I think on this point she's wrong. IPCC has a lot of clout - much more than GCOS and/or WMO. It should be saying something about what we should be doing. 3. Minor point, just land warming more than ocean, not much more. 4. I guess you've expanded on linear trends enough 5. The CCSP diagrams are good, but I'm not keen on running means. I guess though they wouldn't be too different with a better smoother. 6. I guess you'll raise map projections. Could add in the new one Dave has done for precip to show the 30E edge. The additional slides. Most of these are from a talk I have to give in Bern next month. They relate mostly to issues with Ch 6. Maybe you can add a couple of them.They relate to the issues of: - making full use of the instrumental records to compare with proxy records - changes in seasonality - was the few hundred years before 1850 always colder than the post 1920 period. The first 2 are the longest European records. The period I'm interested in is the rise up from the late 17th century to the 1730s and then the year 1740. No volcanoes for 20-30 year period may be a factor, solar also, but nothing explains 1740. It is not just in CET. 1730s at CET and De Bilt is the warmest decade until the 1990s. Producing these sorts of things in proxy data is a key. 3rd slide is just some of these longer records filtered. They don't agree that well, so why should proxy series agree. We have more to learn from the early instrumental period. 4th is just a simple example of instrumental/proxy overlap. Highlights seasonality differences. and 5th just shows how unusual the central European summer was in 2003 - if we wanted a figure for the box. The interface with Ch 6 and the early instrumental period is crucial. 60% of the comments on Ch 6 were on the 3-4 pages on the last millennium ! Ours weren't that distorted to one of our sections. Issues at UEA and CRU haven't helped me get to 3.2 yet. I hope to by the end of the day. Cheers Phil At 15:26 03/05/2005, you wrote: Phil Did you look at and have comments/suggestion on the ppt for the last day in Beijing? Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1945. 2005-05-05 11:29:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 5 May 2005 11:29:54 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Beijing Ch6 info 1 to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Dear Chapter 6 Lead Authors: We're looking forward to seeing you all in Beijing, and having a productive meeting. As far as we know, everyone is coming except Jean-Claude (for health reason), Dominique (also health reasons) and David (prevented from traveling by NASA). We have quite a bit to accomplish at this meeting, and thus we expect that all attending will do some homework before they arrive. This should include: a) please read all the comments, and for those relevant to your sections (or others) please note how you intend to deal with them. Of course, we won't talk about little edits, but we want to make sure that the group can discuss anything more serious. For each section, we plan to ask each responsible person to GIVE A SHORT PRESENTATION on what must be done. We hope that all LA's will have input for each section. PLEASE SEE ATTACHED FILE FOR ASSIGNMENTS, and NOTE THAT WE HAD TO MAKE NEW ASSIGNMENTS IN ORDER TO COVER FOR THOSE NOT ABLE TO ATTEND. NB: There will be a projector in our Chapter discussion room, so bring Powerpoint presentations as you feel. b) please reread the other chapter(s) for which you are responsible (SEE ATTACHED LIST FOR ASSIGNMENTS), as well as the comments you prepared earlier. For anything significant (e.g., overlap or achieving cross-IPCC consistency), YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO LEAD DISCUSSION for your chapter. c) think extra hard about the fact that our chapter is significantly too long and that it must be shortened. What text and figures can we cut? Please note that our criteria includes that the material discussed must be relevant to policy, new since TAR, and not just a review of the field. d) make sure you bring your calendars - we will discuss and agree on a schedule of deadlines. Unlike our experience with the ZOD, we will have to meet more deadlines. The First Order Draft (FOD) must be perfect! This will include nice final figures, and a complete bibliography. e) we will discuss section 6.2.2 (with Valerie and us in the lead), and how we will ensure this important section, and its more detailed expansion in the appendix, will be covered. We propose that we and a small number of contributing authors to do the job. Please come with names of individuals who will be potentially expert in this area (e.g., with describing the nature of proxies), AND who will promise to work hard to meet deadlines. Please feel free to circulate any special ideas or requests to the group before the weekend. See you in Beijing! Best, Peck and Eystein Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\ZODChap6Responsibilities1.xls" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\IPCCChap6CrossChapLaisonsBeijing.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4172. 2005-05-05 17:15:56 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu May 5 17:15:56 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Atlantic SST 10-20N to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, David's plot for this zone looks a little different from yours in the ppt for the last day. It isn't just the different level of smoothing - some of the peak years are 0.2 to 0.3 different. Also some difference between Fig 3.2.4e for north of 35N, but here yours stops at 65N, whereas David's goes to the sea-ice edge (or as far north as the data allow). I didn't realise HadISST was so different from Rayner et al (2005). I have a draft of the latter. It will get submitted by end of May. It is another epic. Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1119. 2005-05-05 17:48:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu May 5 17:48:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Sections 3.5-3.7 to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, At least we have similar worries re the sections that require most work. I'll email Albert and see if he can send me anything by end of tomorrow. I believe I booked the more expensive room, but haven't had any sort of confirmation. I'll find out on Sunday morning, so see you Monday at breakfast and we'll sort out what we can usefully do. The areas could be different for 35-65N as David's goes further north. I don't reckon there should be any differences between 10-20N, unless parts of the Caribbean do/don't get included. Need to check where the Atlantic ends. If you don't do it carefully you could get a bit of the Pacific in near Panama if the whole Caribbean is in. Cheers Phil At 17:34 05/05/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I have gone thru 3.7 and made a version that agrees with the cuts of Jim and mine. I'll make that available. It is about 5 pp and there are some areas for discussion. The problem is that there are major things missing. I found about a dozen papers on Indian rainfall and monsoon trends and 1976 shift etc that ought to be discussed. At present there are 29 refs to be deleted. I have highlighted them all in the list. I am concerned about 3.3. I think the discussion on Marengo's work highlights the need to not use just one precip dataset but use several and expose differences: like in temperature with GISS, NCDC and HadCRU. Your data and GPCP ought to be considered as much as NCDC stuff. I have been disappointed Dave has not been more responsive. Also I have not gotten to 3.8 and I am quite worried about that. There are several NCAR people on the same flight I am on. I will leave here 7:15 a.m saturday and arrive 4:55 pm sunday. The flight is 13 hours from San Francisco and of course I have an extra flight to get there. So I expect to be bushed. On monday I think we ought to plan for a solid half day of work but also a few hours to go out and about. I have no plans at the present. I am trying to get an upgraded room but can't get the Chinese to respond!!! See you in Beijing Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Just had a brief look at your 3.7 reductions and those that Jim sent. There is some agreement on the cuts you've both made. You've also cut it from 7 to 5pp, which is good. Jim's also made cuts to the other two sections. With Martin stating we are 50% over we probably need more, but I'd like to think that 20-25% over can be accommodated somehow. Many of our figures could go smaller, if all the figures were to be on a web site where people could get larger figures. I've not hassled Dave Easterling about 3.3 except wrt figures. It was a little counter productive last time, but I think we will need to bring some more pressure to bear. Albert is supposed to be having a go now at 3.8. He's been getting off a paper from the Central/South Asian workshop we had in Feb in Pune. That is back with the numerous authors now, but is in good shape. He should have had this week on 3.8, but I've heard nothing, except that he's on a flight on Sunday from Europe. So he'll not be with us on the Monday. Just heard that Peter Thorne's HadAT paper has been accepted. Revision accepted in 48hrs by JGR. Editor said major revision (like your GRL paper), but this was major. Can't have gone back to reviewers ! We all arrive on May 8 at 08.35 at Beijing Apt. Will look around if able that day, but if you're in the hotel by 8pm (I think you said you get in about 5pm) give me a call. Otherwise, I'll likely be up early, so see you at breakfast and we can figure out where we can do some work on the 9th. WGI people will be registering from 10am, so maybe they can help if we are more than just us. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3388. 2005-05-06 16:22:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri May 6 16:22:15 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Section 3.7 to: "David Easterling" Dave, Good on the plots. We'll have something to look at. The DTR plot is already penciled in in 3.2. Phil At 16:01 06/05/2005, you wrote: Phil, I have asked Byron to download the GPCC gridded data and if possible produce a trend map for us to see in Beijing. Also, Jay is going to produce a version of GHCN for the 1948-present period for comparison. I agree that we need to stick with our set periods, and if so then the Chen data set is only valid for the 1979-present period. Plus I just spoke with Russ and he is trying to get us a DTR plot for 1979-present. Dave Phil Jones wrote: Dave, We do need to decide what we show in 3.3 and what comparisons are done in map or time series form. There is also the new GPCC analyses that I sent round details of a few weeks ago. Aiguo Dai sent some time series comparisons a week or so ago with these in and highlighted a number of issues. I've had some email discussion with GPCC on this and I'll bring this with me. A lot of the detail you refer to will likely have to go into one of the Appendices. 3.2 may be a useful guide here with time series comparisons of the various datasets, but only one for maps of trends. Temperature is a lot easier, but if we set periods, we may be able to follow those 'rules'. Periods are a problem, but I think we should be sticking to just the 2, from 1901 and 1979. Before adding Figures, we need to decide which we really need as we have too many. We are 50% oversize. Kevin, Jim and others have reduced some of 3.5-3.7 and also done some work on 3.4. David, Kevin and me have worked on 3.2 and the Appendices. But all this hasn't saved that many pages so far (< 5). References will have gone down by a page or two. Figures are where we are likely to make most reductions. I know we won't manage 50%, but 25% is possible. Hope you all have good trips to Beijing. See you all next week ! Phil At 13:43 06/05/2005, David Easterling wrote: All, I too am a bit concerned about results from the various pcp datasets. I think this really warrants a discussion next week in Beijing. Part of the problem I see is that trend results are strongly impacted by the starting and ending points of the time series and we have different trends with different starting and stopping points. The Chen et al dataset is 1948-2003, GHCN has both 1901-2003 and 1979-2003 in our plots, GPCP has 1979-2003 and so on. We are going to produce a GHCN plot for the 1948-2003 period for comparison with Chen. Also, they have very different methodologies in their development. Chen uses optimal interpolation of gauge data and and EOF reconstruction over the ocean but is based on both GHCN and synoptic reports from the NOAA/CPC Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (CAMS) dataset, GHCN is only land-based gauge data with a simple gridding scheme but some of the data (e.g. Canada and Russia) have been adjusted for undercatch, etc., and GPCP is a blend of satellite and gauge data. Also we need to be careful when we use the word "trend" and probably should use something like "change" in many places. Even the global temperature time series since 1900 does not exihibit a monotonic trend, but has three distinct phases, increase, no change, then increase. Dave Easterling Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all, and especially Panmao, Jim and Matilde (who I challenged with having a go at revising 3.7). Jim has made a good attack on 3.5 an 3.6 and progress is being made there. However, perhaps the section where the biggest shortcomings exist are 3.7. It is too long, and not focussed enough on the topic of change in monsoons, etc. As I read through it, 3.7.1 is mostly about changes in rainfall, and so this MUST be fully compatible with 3.3 and it should not repeat what is in 3.3. Instead it should refer to 3.3 and some 3.3 figures might be modified to accommodate 3.7 and monsoon needs. Accordingly, I want to recruit David Easterling to also look hard at 3.7. I am quite concerned about the multiplicity oif rainfall datasets and the sometimes different stories they tell, and the lack of clear timelines. Saying something is a trend for 20 years and then it changed sign means it is not a trend. The discussion should take place more in the context of how we think things should or might change. In monsoon areas, there are strong contrasts of rain areas and subsidence, and if the circulation gets stronger then wouldn't both get more intense? Doing area averages over regions that involve both make no sense. Would shifts be more likely: dipole structures? With land warming faster than oceans, does that mean enhanced monsoons? Given pollution (dimming), wouldn't rainfall be reduced in some areas? Or actually what that really does is change the frequency and intensity of rainfall, making rains less frequent, but still heavy because there is more water vapor. Is there evidence of this? Does this have a seasonal signal: mainly in winter but not the monsoon season? Can we answer these kinds of questions? Can we say how monsoons are changing? Are they all changing in the same ways or are they different? Can we bring the common features up front? Analyses of rainfall data or CAPE (as in the Australian section) are not confined to Australia. Note my comment that the DeMott and Randel (2004) paper is likely contaminated by the erroneous corrections applied to some sonde data that have since been corrected (Durre et al 2002). This intersects with 3.4.1 I decided to go through the section with a "blunt ax" approach and cut stuff that seemed not obviously pertinent. Even then I probably did not go far enough. I stress that this has NOT taken into account suggestions from reviewers. But I thought I would do this as a challenge to you to say why this stuff should not be cut? i.e. often the default is to leave it the way it is unless critical comments suggest otherwise. In this case I want to suggest that at least for the cut material, that the default be to leave it out unless justified. It is not that some of the cut material is wrong, it is just that it is focussed on mean conditions or ENSO relations that are dealt with elsewhere in our chapter (3.6), or other material that is not adequately focussed. This section is supposed to deal with the phenomenology of monsoons, Hadley and Walker circulation, etc. It should not repeat what is in 3.3. It also has the chance to regionalize some aspects, which is why I am including all LAs on this email. In case you still have not quite got the message, I wish to provoke you into action on this section. Don't get upset with what I have done, instead get on with it! Bring your suggestions to Beijing. Thanks Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [1]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [2]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 -- David R. Easterling, Ph.D. Chief, Scientific Services Division NOAA's National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 USA V: 828-271-4675 F: 828-271-4328 [3]David.Easterling@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- David R. Easterling, Ph.D. Chief, Scientific Services Division NOAA's National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 USA V: 828-271-4675 F: 828-271-4328 [5]David.Easterling@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3436. 2005-05-10 08:19:59 ______________________________________________________ cc: Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Tue, 10 May 2005 08:19:59 +0800 from: "zhang de'er" subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] comments-ch6&ch11-ZhangD to: jto@u.arizona.edu Content-Type: text/plain; charset=gb2312; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by thunder.joss.ucar.edu id j4A0K9ui005336 Eystein and Peck: The commentsof ch6 have not contained the comments of mine. I had sent an e-file to Peck on 24 Feb. So ,I'm afraid the mail would be loset. And another e-file about Chapter 11 sent on 2 March. Here, send the 2 file again .please see attachment. Zhang De'er _________________________________________________________________ Ãâ·ÑÏÂÔØ MSN Explorer: http://explorer.msn.com/lccn Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Comments ch06-Zhang D1.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\comments-Ch11__Zhang D1.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4396. 2005-05-12 09:35:28 ______________________________________________________ cc: fiona.smith@metoffice.gov.uk, "Tett, Simon" date: Thu May 12 09:35:28 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Palaeo reconstructions to: "Jenkins, Geoff" Thanks for the opportunity to see this, Geoff. I have a few points to raise: (1) There were no years, or indeed any x-axis labelling, on the figure. (2) Perhaps this will be said in a caption, but please make sure that somewhere (caption or figure) it is clear that this is northern hemisphere mean annual temperature, rather than global mean annual temperature. (3) It might also be worth saying that the apparent narrowing of the range in the first 2 centuries isn't because of smaller uncertainties, but rather because of few reconstructions from which to define the "envelope". At 16:41 11/05/2005, Jenkins, Geoff wrote: Are you happy for us to use it in the booklet of slides we are doing? I will credit you as the source. (4) Yes, fine with me. I assume zero is the 61-90 mean for both instrumental and reconstructions. (5) Correct. My only concern is with the very obvious difference between reconstructions and instrumental over the last few decades. I recall Keith mentioning this when he gave us a talk, but I don't remember the reason. If we don't give one then the obvious mismatch will raise unanswered questions and may cast doubt on the reliability of the reconstructions. Does IPCC comment? I suppose another way round would be to simply miss off the last 30 yrs of the reconstructions. Your advice would be appreciated. (6) There are some issues with whether reconstructions capture the post-1980 warming. But in this case, these issues are dominated by effect of there being very few reconstructions past 1980 and thus (as with the first two centuries - point (3) above) the envelope is poorly defined. Indeed only one extends to the end of the envelope (hence the convergence to a point) and this is the borehole record which couldn't resolve any acceleration in warming on time scales of a decade or two anyway! I would suggest cutting off the reconstruction envelope in 1980, after which there are far fewer reconstructions available (and those that are available are based on fewer constituent proxy series). This seems honest because it will be clear that we are not using the reconstructions to "confirm" the recent warming, for which we rely on the instrumental temperatures, but taking it through to 1980 will be far enough to show that while the instrumental series is still just within the reconstruction envelope, it is not central and thus there are possibilities of reconstructions bias which deserve investigation even if they aren't disastrous to our interpretation. I think that's a fair view. Hope this is useful, Best wishes Tim 1631. 2005-05-12 12:10:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu May 12 12:10:12 2005 from: Tom Melvin subject: Re: Program to: Kurt Nicolussi Kurt, Thanks Tom At 12:03 12/05/2005, you wrote: Dear Tom, I need to separate modern / sub-fossil trees to test RCS curves. Have you got a list or separate raw data files for each (with pith) as I should use the same trees as you use. You should have got three different files - historical samples, subfossil material, living trees - with the pith-offset information. If you still have these files you can produce different RCS curves. The RCS curve for the Youngest trees (ALPS -63) goes up instead of down! The climate signal is sufficient to change the slope of the RCS curve when all trees come from roughly the same period. Your separation of modern trees for an RCS curve will require the use of Signal Free methods to remove this distortion. I should be able to demonstrate this on your trees when I have a separate "modern" RCS curve. There are only few trees with an age between 40 und 63 years - that can also be by chance. And in reality the "modern trees" (=living trees) are from the last 400 years, many of them started growth during the Little Ice Age. So, the "modern RCS" curve obtained are from a wide climate range. For me the effects of coring position and the effects of systematic sample bias - the trees with long series are slow growing trees - are bigger One possibility is to use many RCS curves to standardise producing series of tree indices with means roughly 1.0 and then to use the relative magnitudes of the RCS curves (to each other) to "reinstate" overall growth rate of each individual tree before averaging to get a chronology. I will try this on your trees as well. Sounds interesting. Kurt 3710. 2005-05-12 15:50:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 12 May 2005 15:50:36 +0200 from: Kurt Nicolussi subject: for discussion to: Tom Melvin , "k.briffa@uea.ac.uk" , Andrea Johanna Thurner Hi Tom and Keith, with the completed data set - as I sent you - we established new RCS standardized chronologies for the last 2000 years - up to now using win-ARSTAN. Now we can them compare with the results obtained by using TOM.exe (MRCS, ...). I've added some figures established by Andrea: Vergleich RCS-chronos mit_ohne pt 2.wmf --- compares the two chonos (with / without pt) Vergleich RCS-chronos mit_ohne pt 2 smooth.wmf --- smoothed version of chronos EPS_RBAR_mit_u_ohne_pt 1k.wmf --- comparison of the EPS and RBAR values of these two chronos Mittelk_mit power trans_Vergl5.wmf --- comparison of the chronologies of the three groups of samples (living, subfossil, historical) obtained by using different RCS curves for standardization, all data with pt. Mittelk_ohne power trans_Vergl5.wmf --- the same as above, but without pt. Vergleich RCS mit power trans.wmf --- the RCS curves of the three sample groups, with pt. Vergleich RCS ohne power trans.wmf --- the same, without pt. 1) Why did we divide the data - for data from living trees in comparison to subfossil or historical data it ist necessary - see the different RCS-curves: Vergleich RCS ohne power trans.wmf, Vergleich RCS mit power trans.wmf the "historical" and the "subfossil" RCS differs not really, but up to now we don't have tested what would be the effects. 2) Than we compared the chronologies of these different groups in the overlapping period - see: Mittelk_ohne power trans_Vergl5.wmf; Mittelk_mit power trans_Vergl5.wmf. historical and subfossil differs only slightly - with the exception of the period around AD 1700 - here one sites dominates the data set (altitude 2200 to 2300 m a.s.l.), maybe that's the reason. The first part of the living trees chronology is below the other series - the very old trees start as slow growing trees - maybe we should divide the data sets in two age (?) classes - what do you think? 3) we wanted to compare chronologies established by using power transformation or not - altogether, there are not so big differences for the last 1000 years, but especially for the last few decades is maybe better - but e.g. around 500 AD - the pt version is very high, perhabs too high. (see: Vergleich RCS-chronos mit_ohne pt 2.wmf and Vergleich RCS-chronos mit_ohne pt 2 smooth.wmf). The RBAR values are slightly higher with pt (see: EPS_RBAR_mit_u_ohne_pt 1k.wmf). What's your opinion? Altogether, the temperature sensitive Pinus cembra chronologies show a temperature variability with which I can explain most of the glacier fluctuations within this period that I know. Also the different levels - the LIA as the longest below-average period, the MWP as long, but not extrem above-average period, the long Roman Warm Period on a level similar the late 20th century. Best regards Kurt -- Dr. Kurt Nicolussi, Assoc. Prof. Tree-ring Group / Institute of Geography University of Innsbruck Innrain 52 A-6020 Innsbruck Tel +43 512 507 5673 Fax +43 512 507 2806 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Vergleich RCS-chronos mit_ohne pt 2.wmf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\EPS_RBAR_mit_u_ohne_pt 1k.wmf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Mittelk_mit power trans_Vergl5.wmf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Mittelk_ohne power trans_Vergl5.wmf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Vergleich RCS mit power trans.wmf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Vergleich RCS ohne power trans.wmf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Vergleich RCS-chronos mit_ohne pt 2 smooth.wmf" 3842. 2005-05-16 08:21:51 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon May 16 08:21:51 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: HadRM3 to: "Stephen Dorling" , "David Viner" , "Mike Hulme" Steve, Back from China and the IPCC meeting. Response a little brief as I've loads to go through before going to Exeter tomorrow. The first pdf is a paper assessing how good HadRM3 is. Over the UK and similar latitude regions of Europe it is pretty good. HadRM3 is too warm in summer in southern Europe (soil moisture dries out) and too cold in far northern Europe. The very warm temps in southern Europe appear to begin to occur in southern Britain in the future perturbed run, because the soil moisture dries out. The second paper takes this a step further looking at HadCM3 and comparing it to CET. Bottom line is that HadCM3 has the same very warm Tx values in the future as HadRM3. Whether they are real (possible) is the question, but the 2003 summer shows how the soil moisture can dry out and all the excess heat goes into sensible heat. I reckon they are likely in very dry years, particularly after 2040 (see the Brabson et al. paper). Hope they help and this isn't too late. Cheers Phil At 14:30 11/05/2005, Stephen Dorling wrote: Dave, Mike, Phil I'm trying to write a review report for DEFRA on climate change and air quality. One of my high profile co-authors is highly critical of HadRM3 in terms of its tendency, he says, to overestimate Tmax in the control climate, especially the extreme summer temperatures. Essentially, he was once provided, by Tom Holt, with daily gridpoint Tmax which, on analysis, showed occasional instances of 41C for central England in the control. On the basis of this, and other evidence such as disappointing results when HadRM3 was used to simulate climate change in India, he refuses to use HadRM3 claiming it is "much too warm" generally, prefering instead to stick with HadCM3. He wishes to make a strong point about this in the report. The main issue is that Tmax has a strong influence on surface ozone and natural emissions of volatile hydrocarbons. I've looked back through the UKCIP02 Scientific Report and also at the draft paper by Dave Rowell et al arising from the PRUDENCE RCM intercomparison. It is acknowledged that absolute simulations of Tmax are too high in the upper 1 percentile and the stress seems to be on working with scenario-baseline as a fairly reliable indicator. I wondered if you had any comments on this? I may need to go to the trouble of comparing HadRM3 and HadCM3 daily Tmax timeseries to really nail this but I feel sure someone has already done this. As ever it is difficult to find the appropriate report/paper. Just to add insult to injury, a separate study has recently used a 25km HadRM3 simulation, within the PRECIS system, to further investigate air quality impacts. Unfortunately only four individual years are being analysed in the control and the future scenario to draw conclusions. My "colleague" is rejecting this as bad practise (which it probably is) in terms of significance testing and dealing with natural variability. Very grateful if you can help at all. There is potential embarrasment within DEFRA on this of course. Steve Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1123. 2005-05-16 08:30:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon May 16 08:30:37 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Paleo things - McIntyre ppt and Wahl/Amman paper for CC to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Keith and Tim, Attached is the ppt McIntyre must have used talking to the Marshall Inst. Also I'm reviewing the CC submission for Wahl and Amman. From a quick read it seems pretty conclusive that MM have made mistakes and WA almost replicates MBH. I can send the paper if you want it for rewriting Ch 6. I suspect you may only have enough space for one sentence on it. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2548. 2005-05-16 15:23:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 16 May 2005 15:23:45 +0200 from: Valérie Masson-Delmotte subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC FOD : Holocene section to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu, fleitman@pangea.stanford.edu, pasb@dsm-mail.saclay.cea.fr, Sandy.Harrison@bristol.ac.uk, Valerie Masson-Delmotte Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by thunder.joss.ucar.edu id j4GDOZui010137 Dear all, Please find attached a new sketch for the FOD section on the Holocene - it has to be finalised before June 15th, and figures must be finished before June 1st (you can see the tracked changes from the ZOD version). I have modified the structure to include the modelling part (incl. text from Chapter 9), the suggestions by the reviewers, and something about interannual variability from the previous last section of the ZOD. I need to reprocess all the text + references, modify the labelling of the sections (new structure of the chapter). The references are not totally inside the attached Endnote database but most of them are already. I have several requests for many of you : - Fortunat : you kindly offered to provide me with a xmgr figure showing the Holocene GHG evolution, so ... this will be fine. - Dick : can you update the description of ice sheet evolution during the early Holocene (e.g. precise volume of ice caps at 10k, 8k, 6k, dates of disappearance of Laurentide and Fennoscandia) - Bettie : can you go through the modelling part (especially what I called : what do we learn from equlibrium simulations) and improve it + provide the table - Eystein, Stefan : where does the 8.2 event go? In the previous section on glacial interglacial time scale + rapid events or in the Holocene section on rapid events? - Dominik : can you please have a look at this terrible draft and contact me to discuss the tropical precip figure + text ? - Daniel, Ricardo, Ramesh, Peck : can you please send me what you think are the most relevant data to illustrate the abrupt changes in tropical precip (data + location of records latitude, longitude + references, if possible in Endnote format on a separated file if you already have it) - Peck : can you ask Julie to have a look at the last section (ENSO) and update the refs to coral works? - Sandy : can you have a look at the biome sections (introduction + warm early Holocene +¨equilibrum runs sections) and improve them? The total (text + figures) should be about the right length after rewriting, I think. If you rewrite some of the text can you please send it in a separate word file (not correct this version?) Sincerely, Valerie. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\VMD-FOD-V1.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\VMD-IPCC.enl" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\masson112.vcf" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3301. 2005-05-16 15:28:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon May 16 15:28:48 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: More from Battelle to: tcrowley@duke.edu, Gabi Hegerl Gabi, Tom, Here's the last thing I got on May 9 from the people at PNL. I'm away from later today until Friday, so no rush. But if you are going to talk to Anjuli, can you ask her to give us all clearer instructions. The process they are saying we need to go through will take months. It applies to Nathan as well. I've not heard from Myles So any help would be appreciated. Apologies if this is a pain. Cheers Phil Date: Mon, 09 May 2005 08:07:06 -0700 From: "Saraceno, Angela M" Subject: RE: Some more thoughts on the payments To: Phil Jones Cc: "Frankenfield, Mindy K" , "Robertson, Teresa L" , "King, Onie L" Thread-Topic: Some more thoughts on the payments thread-index: AcVSNEyds/yKeWYHQ9asFUHpfZW7bACdBJ/g X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 May 2005 15:07:07.0243 (UTC) FILETIME=[C42CB3B0:01C554A8] X-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-Spam-Level: / Hi Dr. Jones, I asked our corporate tax attorney whether or not your reimbursements could be considered foreign source income, and she said that they could not. So, you will have to follow the previously discussed procedure regarding these payments. Please let me know if you have any additional questions. Thanks, Angela From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Friday, May 06, 2005 5:02 AM To: Saraceno, Angela M Cc: Frankenfield, Mindy K; Robertson, Teresa L; King, Onie L Subject: Some more thoughts on the payments Dear Angela, I've been making a few enquiries here in the UK about how to get an ITIN number. According to the IRS web pages I can apply at the embassy, or through three different companies based in London. I contacted one of these and outlined the issues from your emails over the phone. The person asks (see their email below) that I contact you again. His suggestion is to treat reimbursements as 'foreign source' similar to payments already received in 2003. Can you look into this and give me your thoughts? I am away much of the next two weeks, so there is no rush to reply. The costs he refers to come to about £400, so not cheap. Going through the embassy would be much cheaper, but harder to arrange. Looking forward to hearing from you when I get back. I will be at work on Monday week (May 16) but just for the one day. Regards Phil Subject: US Taxpayer Identification Number Date: Fri, 6 May 2005 11:39:04 +0100 From: "Chris Wilding" To: X-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-Spam-Level: / Dear Professor Jones Further to our telephone conversation on Tuesday, I have discussed your issue with a colleague. We feel that the IRS would probably regard the reimbursement of travel expenses as sufficient reason to issue an ITIN, and so you could then use the forms you have been sent to release the payment. This would obviously cost time and money to resolve. Alternatively, there may well be some mileage in contacting the US company and asking them to treat the reimbursements as "foreign source", similar to other payments you have received, because they relate to the work you performed in the UK for them. This would remove the need for the ITIN and treaty claim. There may also be other arrangements you can make with the US company to avoid unnecessary costs and form-filling. In practical terms there is no question of any tax avoidance as you have indicated that amounts are being reported to the UK Inland Revenue and the payments would be exempt from US tax under the US/UK treaty in any event. We would of course be very happy to assist you with the ITIN application if that is the only way around this problem. I hope this is of use. If you do end up requiring our help with the ITIN please do not hesitate to contact me. Regards Chris Wilding ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Chris Wilding wildingc@ustax.co.uk Direct dial +44 (0)20 7556 1423 Secretary +44 (0)20 7556 1405 (Sara Metcalf) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -- Buzzacott Livingstone, 12 New Fetter Lane, London, EC4A 1AG Tel +44 (0)20 7556 1400 Fax +44 (0)20 7556 1212 The information in this e-mail is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for the addressee. If you are not the intended recipient, any disclosure, copying, distribution or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful. This e-mail has been created and transmitted by an automated system and may therefore not be endorsed by a duly authorised signatory. When addressed to our clients any opinions or advice contained in this e-mail are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in the governing Buzzacott Livingstone engagement letter. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 612. 2005-05-17 15:33:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue May 17 15:33:15 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Nature Review Request - manuscript 2005-05-05186 to: m.hutchinson@nature.com Since the author, Nathan Gillett, is a close colleague of mine (just a couple of offices down the corridor), I don't think it would be appropriate for me to review this manuscript. Regards Tim At 14:44 16/05/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr Osborn I was wondering whether you would be willing to review a short manuscript for the Brief Communications section of Nature. The manuscript comes from Nathan Gillettand is entitled "Inconsistency between simulated and observed Northern Hemisphere circulation changes". Its first paragraph is pasted below. Is this a paper that you would be able to review for us within 14 days? If so, please let me know as soon as possible, and I will send instructions to you on how to access the manuscript. Failing that, it would be helpful to us if you could suggest alternative referees. Many thanks in advance for your help and I look forward to hearing from you. Yours sincerely Rosalind Cotter Editor, Brief Communications Inconsistency between simulated and observed Northern Hemisphere circulation changes Nathan Gillett In recent decades winter sea level pressure has decreased over the Arctic and increased in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics, a change associated with 50% of the observed Eurasian winter warming over the past thirty years, 60% of the rainfall increase in Scotland, and 60% of the rainfall decrease in Spain. This trend has previously been shown to be inconsistent with the simulated response to greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol changes, but other climate influences such as ozone depletion have been suggested as a possible reason for the discrepancy. Here, for the first time, we compare observed Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure trends with those simulated in response to all the major human and natural climate influences in eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models over the past 50 years, and find that the observed trend is inconsistent both with simulated internal variability and with the simulated response to combined human and natural climate influences. Please note that your contact details are being held on our editorial database which is used only for this journal's management of the peer review process. If you would prefer us not to contact you in the future please let us know by emailing nature@nature.com. This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking System NY-610A-NPG&MTS 2589. 2005-05-17 17:28:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: ib.troen@cec.eu.int,hans.brelen@cec.eu.int date: Tue May 17 17:28:25 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: IMPRINT to: Eystein Jansen Eystein We have now heard that Millennium will definitely be funded . This means that the very worst case scenario has been realised - because it means that the EU are not likely to call for any palaeoclimate in the next funding round. I have to say that, though there is normally an element of randomness in the refereeing of EU proposals , that to a large extent is unfortunate but inevitable, I believe strongly that the system has let us down very badly in this case. It is clear that we, the IMPRINT community were misled ; first by Ib Troen's direction (given publicly in Utrecht) that we should produce a proposal which was of the scale to unify the whole Palaeoclimate community , with a specific role to bring data and modelling foci to bear on the issue of climate predictability; that we should be careful to not to over-emphasise the collection of new data but rather work mostly to consolidate and jointly interpret existing data , and that we should formulate a scheme where these are fed directly into a hierarchy of modelling experiments that would address causes of climate change, model viability and issues of probability of future climate and its causes. Secondly, We were misled by the accepting , on the basis of the published call, that the EU required IP proposals of ambitious scope , large enough to move the science of European palaeoclimate forward as a whole and with relevance to globally important issues, with aims clearly beyond the scope of "slightly bigger STREPS" . On reading the cursory referees' responses to our proposal , I am also moved to express my own opinion that they are an insult to the community of researchers that constitute IMPRINT , and an indictment of the failure of the referees to address their assessment to the generally publicised aims of the IP concept. To describe the whole proposal as "too complicated", and to state that there is " no value" in the first four workpackages , and most of all , to rate the quality of the consortium as 4 out of 5 , all require explicit justification well beyond the few lines with which we are presented. While I have no ill will at all regarding the competing proposal Millennium , I feel that the extended IMPRINT community can justifiably ask very serious questions regarding the apparent lack of equitable assessment of the two proposals in the light of the published call requirements - the efforts of the IMPRINT consortium over recent months at least deserve answers as to how , for the sake of 0.5 of a mark , that proposal will be funded when it clearly did not address the scope of the original call - in terms of community integration, emphasis on wider data consolidation, scope of model hierarchy, and specific addressing of the data/model integration towards the issue of climate sensitivity/predictability. Expressing these concerns should not be considered "sour grapes " . They are not and I congratulate the MILLENNIUM team on having succeeded . They will do valuable research. Rather these comments are justified because the review process has not taken account of the scope of the IP concept, and the need to invoke a research plan with the necessary breadth and expertise (and proven managerial ability - as can be gauged by the assessment of the CARBO OCEAN coordination plan) , and because the success of the much more limited MILLENNIUM project has already been cited by European officials as justification for the lack of any need to fund palaeoclimate research in the next call - effectively cutting off the wider palaeoclimate community from EU research support for the next few years. I believe we are justified in questioning the operation of the IP concept , and questioning it in fora beyond the circle of EU administration, which has , in my opinion has done a serious dis-service to our community and palaeoclimate in general. At the very least , the "goalposts" regarding IP proposals seem to have been moved and the time of many researchers has been wasted. My motivation in writing this is upset , but also serious concern for the non-transparent and inconsistent way important funding decisions are made. Best wishes Keith 2672. 2005-05-18 06:51:51 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Andrew Weaver , Weijian Zhou , Peter Clark , Keith Briffa , Michael E Mann , Paul Valdes , Valerie Masson , James Hurrell , Elsa Cortijo , Juerg Beer , Andreas Schmittner , Jonathan Overpeck , christoph.kull@pages.unibe.ch, ereno@at.fcen.uba.ar, Detemmerman_V@gateway.wmo.ch, mdsp@mercury.noc.soton.ac.uk, hyc@mercury.noc.soton.ac.uk, rbos@obs-vlfr.fr, caetano@soc.soton.ac.uk, legler@usclivar.org date: Wed, 18 May 2005 06:51:51 -0400 (EDT) from: Gavin Schmidt subject: Re: Fwd: model to: zhongwei yan The reference given shows this long term run of bryson's energy balance model as a bit of an afterthought. The only inputs are orbital forcing and a volcanic index of uncertain provenance and scaling. No solar forcing is used. Thus just using this figure out of context would seem to be more confusing than enlightening (though it simply reflects the volcanic forcing used). Unless you were collecting all published millenial simulations (rather than just the most enlightening), I would not recommend adding it to the site. If you are collecting all such data, the site needs to be extremely clear about what kind of models are used, and what the input data is. Gavin *--------------------------------------------------------------------* | Gavin Schmidt NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies | | 2880 Broadway | | Tel: (212) 678 5627 New York, NY 10025 | | | | gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov http://www.giss.nasa.gov/~gavin | *--------------------------------------------------------------------* On Wed, 18 May 2005, zhongwei yan wrote: > Dear CLIVAR-PAGES members, > > I suppose some of you also received the following message from Reid Bryson. > Anyone knows more details and any comments? Should this work (about the last > millennia) be highlighted at CLIVAR's web site or PAGES'? > > Cheers, Zhongwei > >> Date: Tue, 17 May 2005 11:17:31 -0500 >> From: Reid Bryson >> Subject: model >> X-Sender: rabryson@wiscmail.wisc.edu >> To: zxy@soc.soton.ac.uk >> X-Spam-Report: AuthenticatedSender=yes, SenderIP=144.92.131.188 >> X-Spam-PmxInfo: Server=avs-1, Version=4.7.1.128075, Antispam-Engine: >> 2.0.3.1, >> Antispam-Data: 2005.5.17.16, SenderIP=144.92.131.188 >> X-MailScanner-NOCS: Found to be clean >> X-MailScanner-NOCS-SpamCheck: not spam, SpamAssassin (score=-4.48, >> required 5, BAYES_00 -4.90, HTML_MESSAGE 0.10, MIME_HTML_ONLY 0.32) >> X-MailScanner-NOCS-From: rabryson@wisc.edu >> Status: >> Colleagues, >> Here is another type of model to put into the PAGES-CLIVAR coop and >> comparisons.. This is a new higher resolution version of the model >> used in: >> Ruter, A.H., J. Arzt, S. Vavrus, R.A. Bryson, and J.E. Kutzbach (2004) >> Climate and environment of the subtropical and tropical Americas (NH) in >> the mid-Holocene: comparison of observations with climate model >> simulations. Quaternary Science Reviews 23(5-6):663-679. >> >> -- >> Reid A. Bryson Ph.D. D.Sc..D.Engr. >> Global 500 Laureate >> Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research >> Emeritus Prof. of Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental Studies >> Univ. of Wisconsin, 1225 W. Dayton St., Madison, WI 53706 >> Ph. 608-262-5814, FAX. 608-263-4190 >> http://ccr.meteor.wisc.edu/bryson/bryson.html >> >> "If you can't say it in plain English, you probably don't understand it >> well enough to be talking about it in the first place." > > > -- > *********************************** > Dr. Zhongwei Yan > International CLIVAR Project Office > Southampton Oceanography Centre > European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH > > Email: zxy@soc.soton.ac.uk > http://www.clivar.org/ > *********************************** 3135. 2005-05-20 05:36:23 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Fri, 20 May 2005 05:36:23 -0400 (EDT) from: Alan Robock subject: Re: your presentation at EGU to: Gerard van der Schrier Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; CHARSET=iso-8859-1; FORMAT=flowed Content-ID: X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by envsci.rutgers.edu id j4K9aSOI013920 Dear Gerard, Thanks for your interesting results. I guess I would conclude that you have discovered limitations to the PDSI model that raise questions as to how well it simulates long-term trends. It means, I think, that more information than temperature and precipitation are needed for such calculations. It makes me wonder how good tree-ring reconstructions of drought are that are based only on PDSI. Alan ------------------------------------------------------------------------ (remove 0 when calling from On sabbatical, Jan. 20 - June 30, 2005, at outside France) Cell: +33-(0)6-7229-8903 Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Phone: +33-(0)1-4427-4763 Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Case Courrier 99 Fax: (0)1-4427-6272 Couloir 45-55, 3eme étage, E-mail: robock@envsci.rutgers.edu 75252 Paris Cedex 05, FRANCE http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Alan Robock, Professor II Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-732-932-9478 Rutgers University Fax: +1-732-932-8644 14 College Farm Road E-mail: robock@envsci.rutgers.edu New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 USA http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock On Fri, 20 May 2005, Gerard van der Schrier wrote: > Dear Alan, > > Thanks very much for the suggestions to improve the presentation. I agree > that the quality of the slides were horrible. It all seemed o.k. when I > produced them at the office though. > > Unfortunately, I've missed the opportunity to shake hands during the coffee > break. What I would have liked to say is that I really liked your recent GRL > article and the presentation at the EGU meeting. The absence of a trend > toward increased summer drought we observe in our PDSI records, was nice to > see confirmed in your soil moisture records form the Ukraine. > > Following a suggestion made by somebody in the audience, I computed the > self-calibrating PDSI for the area in the Ukraine from which you have the > records of soil moisture data. (June-July-August, averaged over 22-40E, > 46-52N) The figure is attached to this mail, and it shows a clear trend from > the mid-1940s to the early 1980s toward increased availability of soil > moisture. This is similar to your fig. 2a. However, instead of remaining > more-or-less constant from the mid 1980s onwards, the PDSI shows a rather > abrupt transition to slightly dry conditions and remains more-or-less > constant until 2002 (perhaps with a slight trend towards wetter conditions). > (alanrobock.eps) > > When averaging the CRU temperature and precipitation datasets over the same > area (for the preceeding JFMAMJJA months), a similar trend toward wetter > conditions in precipitation is found as in your figure 2b. From the early > 1980s, there is a steep trend toward less precipitation, coupled to > persistent and very high temperatures, which explains the change in the > scPDSI curve. (alanrobock2.eps) > > Best Regards, > Gerard > --------------------------------------- > Dr. G. van der Schrier > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ > UK > g.schrier@uea.ac.uk > www.uea.ac.uk/~f029 > --------------------------------------- > > > > > > 4909. 2005-05-20 12:51:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri May 20 12:51:12 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: News travels fast as you might have guessed to: John Christy John, Heard back from several sources about the Chicago meeting. Similar sentiments from Jim Hurrell. Email from Tom Peterson below and Jim's bit pasted in below. It seems that not all was solved - re his last sentence about Pielke ! It seems that you can both come out with credit if these expressions of praise can get reported to the community. I'll make the same sorts of comments as and when I get the chance, but won't be shouting from the rooftops or going out of my way to say anything. Not sure exactly what else to say, but for the chapter in AR4 can you keep me informed about what you plan to do wrt publication etc. For my part, I'll try and keep Kevin under control ! Cheers Phil From JH Sitting in the CCSP meeting, but I wanted to let you know of what I believe is really remarkable progress. And I give much credit to Roy Spencer. He has admitted UAH Tlt has a negative bias, accepting the RSS argument the diurnal cycle correction is of the wrong sign. He also has stated the Fu technique is "acceptable" especially given the notion of 1000-200 T as opposed to 850-300. The revised CCSP report will have much more on Fu, and also a new UAH Tlt product. The latter also means IPCC FAR draft will need to be revised to include the new product. Roy thinks it can be done in about 2 weeks. Date: Wed, 18 May 2005 14:07:44 -0400 From: "Thomas C Peterson" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 1.0.2 (Windows/20050317) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Phil Jones Subject: Latest MSU results X-Spam-Score: 0.5 X-Spam-Level: / Hi, Phil, I just thought I'd send my CCSP trip report on to you too as it discusses the latest developments in MSU VTT matters that I'm sure you will be addressing in IPCC. Unfortunately, some of the papers being submitted on these matters are to Science so they are embargoed until published. I didn't describe Ben's work (with Tom Wigley). It looked at the relationship between sfc, lower trop and upper tropospheric temperatures in over 40 models and found out that the UAH lower trop was out of the model range. -Tom Trip Report: Chicago, May 16-17, 2005 CCSP Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere Lead Authors Meeting In this meeting we decided how to address the numerous official NRC review comments. It led to many good plans and, fortunately, only a moderate amount of additional work for me to do. But the important part, the reason Im sending out a trip report more widely, was the reports on new research by Ben Santer, Carl Mears, Qiang Fu (presented by Dian Seidel) and Steve Sherwood (briefly described by John Lanzante). As an upshot, the report will be changed to: Use the Fu data for tropospheric temperatures as we agreed that his new work is more reliable than his initial derivation and better represents what is going on in the troposphere than MSU 2 alone does. Fu applies a mathematical weighting formula to remove the stratospheric component from the MSU 2s mostly tropospheric temperatures. As the stratosphere is cooling, Fus adjustment shows the troposphere warming more than MSU 2 alone would indicate. RSS has developed a new lower tropospheric temperature data set that shows considerable warming. In the process of comparing their work with UAHs effort, they found what appears to be an error in the UAH lower tropospheric temperatures. John Christy and Roy Spencer, after listening to Carl and digesting his comments, agreed that it is quite likely that an error is in their lower tropospheric temperature formula. John estimates that in the tropics this will change the trend from (if I recall correctly) 0.0 K/decade to 0.1 K/decade. This is a giant step forward in reconciling vertical temperature trends. And I must say that the way they reacted to this news and the plans they drew up to address it reflects very well on their character and scientific integrity. Also, John Lanzante talked about some recent work by Steve Sherwood that uncovers what may be an inherent cold bias in daytime radiosondes. The meeting ended with Roger Pielke, Sr. arguing with Tom Karl about the goal for VTT synthesis report. Regards, Tom Peterson -- Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D. Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 Voice: +1-828-271-4287 Fax: +1-828-271-4328 -- Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D. Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 Voice: +1-828-271-4287 Fax: +1-828-271-4328 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3808. 2005-05-20 12:53:40 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri May 20 12:53:40 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Latest MSU results to: "Thomas C Peterson" Tom, Thanks for the update. Heard much the same from Ben and Chris who were at the HC from Wednesday. Jim Hurrell also said that Roy deserves a lot of credit. Will make the section in Ch 3 a lot easier. Your last sentence is highly amusing ! Cheers Phil At 19:07 18/05/2005, you wrote: Hi, Phil, I just thought I'd send my CCSP trip report on to you too as it discusses the latest developments in MSU VTT matters that I'm sure you will be addressing in IPCC. Unfortunately, some of the papers being submitted on these matters are to Science so they are embargoed until published. I didn't describe Ben's work (with Tom Wigley). It looked at the relationship between sfc, lower trop and upper tropospheric temperatures in over 40 models and found out that the UAH lower trop was out of the model range. -Tom Trip Report: Chicago, May 16-17, 2005 CCSP Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere Lead Authors Meeting In this meeting we decided how to address the numerous official NRC review comments. It led to many good plans and, fortunately, only a moderate amount of additional work for me to do. But the important part, the reason Im sending out a trip report more widely, was the reports on new research by Ben Santer, Carl Mears, Qiang Fu (presented by Dian Seidel) and Steve Sherwood (briefly described by John Lanzante). As an upshot, the report will be changed to: Use the Fu data for tropospheric temperatures as we agreed that his new work is more reliable than his initial derivation and better represents what is going on in the troposphere than MSU 2 alone does. Fu applies a mathematical weighting formula to remove the stratospheric component from the MSU 2s mostly tropospheric temperatures. As the stratosphere is cooling, Fus adjustment shows the troposphere warming more than MSU 2 alone would indicate. RSS has developed a new lower tropospheric temperature data set that shows considerable warming. In the process of comparing their work with UAHs effort, they found what appears to be an error in the UAH lower tropospheric temperatures. John Christy and Roy Spencer, after listening to Carl and digesting his comments, agreed that it is quite likely that an error is in their lower tropospheric temperature formula. John estimates that in the tropics this will change the trend from (if I recall correctly) 0.0 K/decade to 0.1 K/decade. This is a giant step forward in reconciling vertical temperature trends. And I must say that the way they reacted to this news and the plans they drew up to address it reflects very well on their character and scientific integrity. Also, John Lanzante talked about some recent work by Steve Sherwood that uncovers what may be an inherent cold bias in daytime radiosondes. The meeting ended with Roger Pielke, Sr. arguing with Tom Karl about the goal for VTT synthesis report. Regards, Tom Peterson -- Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D. Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 Voice: +1-828-271-4287 Fax: +1-828-271-4328 -- Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D. Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 Voice: +1-828-271-4287 Fax: +1-828-271-4328 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4265. 2005-05-20 12:57:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri May 20 12:57:27 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: CCSP meeting: confidential to: Kevin Trenberth , jhurrell@ucar.edu Kevin, Jim, Heard the news also from Ben and Chris at the HC Review meeting. Tom Peterson also emailed me to say that Roy deserves credit. I won't be doing any crowing, but it would be useful to find out what UAH plan to do re a new publication/note. I'll contact John and see what I can find out. Should certainly make the section of Ch 3 a lot easier to write. Cheers Phil At 16:12 17/05/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Thanks Jim Another typical UAH response though: every time we found something, they changed the dataset so they could argue our findings were no longer relevant, but they did not ever take care of the issues. Can I share this with a couple of others on our chapter: in particular David Parker is an author, but is not at your mtg. Kevin jhurrell@ucar.edu wrote: Dear Kevin and Phil, Sitting in the CCSP meeting, but I wanted to let you know of what I believe is really remarkable progress. And I give much credit to Roy Spencer. He has admitted UAH Tlt has a negative bias, accepting the RSS argument the diurnal cycle correction is of the wrong sign. He also has stated the Fu technique is "acceptable" especially given the notion of 1000-200 T as opposed to 850-300. The revised CCSP report will have much more on Fu, and also a new UAH Tlt product. The latter also means IPCC FAR draft will need to be revised to include the new product. Roy thinks it can be done in about 2 weeks. The scientific issue of just how to do this is still up for debate. RSS has based the diurnal cycle corrections on CCM3; UAH will do it based on AMSU data. Whether their redo will result in a +.2C/decade correction (as implied by Mears et al.) in the tropics, or something smaller, will depend on this. But that it will move Tlt to a warmer trend is not in doubt. Just a quick update. More when I return. Jim -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3037. 2005-05-20 15:50:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 20 May 2005 15:50:28 +0100 from: Clare Goodess subject: Re: Notes from meeting on CRU website 2005-05-19 to: Mike Salmon ,cru.internal@uea.ac.uk Hi Mike Thanks a lot for this. In terms of new information sheets, we also agreed to have one on impacts - to be led by Mick with inputs from Tom and Clare. And on a slightly separate issue, I said I would ask the new UEA science communications officer (Nicky Barrell) to come and talk to CRU. Clare At 12:20 20/05/2005, Mike Salmon wrote: >Attending: Clare, Mick, Nathan, Dimitrios, Malcolm, Gerard, Harry, DavidL, >Mike, Carol, MattS, Kate >(I think that's all, but I forgot to take a list at the time - apologies >if I missed you out) > >Apologies: Keith, Tim, DavidV, Craig > >--- Front page >There should be a "press release" for every paper CRU produces - authors >responsible. >These will be linked from the News section as they appear. >Mick suggested they could also be submitted to http://www.sciencedaily.com/ >Changes to website (eg. dataset updates) should go into News section too. >Consider providing RSS feed of News section. > >--- About CRU >Needs tweaking? Clare > >--- Data >Referred to the Data Comittee. Craig > >--- Information sheets >Many need updating: >3: UK weather and climate - Phil >4: UK Climate indicators - Clare >5: The millenial temperature record - Gerard/Phil >6: The Holocene - Keith >7: Thermohaline circulation - Tim >8: Modelling climate change - Clare/DavidV >9: Climate change scenarios - Clare >10: Sea level rise - Sarah/Mick >11: North Atlantic Oscillation - Tim >12: El Niño and the Southern Oscillation and their influence - Malcolm >13: Volcanoes and their effect on climate - DavidV >14: Applied climatology - remove >15: Changing intensity of rainfall over Britain - Tim > >New ones to be written: >Extremes - Amanda/Clare/Ben/TomH >Abrupt Climate Change - Tim >? - Nathan >Global Dimming and Brightening - Mick >Seasonal Climate Prediction - MattS/Clare >Drought in the Sahel - AndyM/Nick/Mick > >Should also produce PDF versions for better handouts. >Do the stats include search engines? > >--- Research Projects >Deferred to subsequent meeting > >--- Staff & Students >Encourage home pages more. >Provide boilerplate homepage for new users. > >--- Academic Programmes >Carol will co-ordinate PhD pages particularly aimed towards prospective >students. > >--- Publications >Database has not been updated since December. Julie/Mike to fix. > >--- Climate Monitor Online >Is gridded visualisation in step with Data page? Mike to check/fix. >News from new Tiempo Cyberclimate NewsWatch? > >Next meeting will be to discuss the Research Projects section over a >bring-and-share lunch, date TBD. > > Dr Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: +44 -1603 592875 Fax: +44 -1603 507784 Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm 1199. 2005-05-23 13:39:54 ______________________________________________________ cc: d.wratt@niwa.cri.nz date: Mon May 23 13:39:54 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Latest draft text to: Kevin Trenberth , Kevin Trenberth , Peter Ambenje , Roxana Bojariu , David Easterling , David Parker , Fatemeh Rahimzadeh , Jim Renwick , Matilde Rusticucci , Brian Soden , Panmao Zhai , Albert Klein Tank Dear All, Kevin is having a couple of weeks off, so I'll be working on the text this week and next. So send revised pieces of text or your suggestions for changes as soon as you have them. Apologies if the UEA system is bouncing emails. Everything crashed over the weekend and it is slowly coming back. I've heard from Panmao (he'll send a revised 3.7 in the next few days) and Fatima (comments by Friday). Any other comments on the new CQs and the rest of Kevin's points by Friday and I'll incorporate them all next week. In the meantime, let me know of any problems with the schedule we agreed in Beijing for the figures and major text revisions (i.e 3.3 for Dave, 3.4.x for Brian, 3.5-3.6 from Jim/Roxana and 3.8 for Albert). I'll be able to go through sections with you before merging them into the full version. Getting all the figures together is the first priority. I expect to finish 3.2 in the next couple of days and would like to help with 3.3 and 3.8 next week. As for Kevin's points, #5 is an amazing revelation, but I've already heard that UAH are wriggling and trying to reduce the effects in their reworking. The sondes do appear to be the outlier now work is underway for tropical sondes to separate day and night launches. All the new work should make this section easier to write and a significant advance for AR4. Cheers Phil At 23:07 19/05/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi everyone We presume most of you are working diligently on the FOID when you can? I have tried to advance the text in several respects. 1) A new CQ has been added, please check it out. Some accommodation to CQ 1 may be needed. I include a possible figure here. Other options should be proposed. 2) I removed box 3.4 and I think I renumbered all. I put a little of the text from there into the main text. 3) I have to say I am confused over droughts, I understand the decision was to leave the main discussion in 3.3? Not sure how this works? 4) Brian mentioned moving suface water vapor to 3.4. Organizationally it does not make sense, so I have not done that. 5) I have revamped once again 3.4.1. Some amazing new dvelopments have occurred. Following the submission of the Mears and Wentz paper and the Santer et al paper (both now included), at the CCSP mtg this week, Spencer agreed that T2LT is flawed and will be redone. It could be redone quite quickly: in a couple of months (not in time for FOD). It makes all the stuff Christy has done on comparisons with sondes moot and recovering from this will take a lot longer. The sondes are emerging as the outliers in the tropics. The Fu method will now be embraced by CCSP (as we have already done). 6) I added a para on the 3 new figures, which I am fan of, on SST lat time sections. Just a place holder in red. 7) All the hurricane section has been upgraded and redone substantially. This also brings in the new figure. 8) Some references have been removed. I also highlighted some older ones that are candidates for removal. 9) Sections 3.5 and 3.6 are up to date. 3.7 still needs a lot of work. Figures are being done. 10) 3.3 is the only section untouched by me. 11) 3.4.x, x>2 needs work; waiting on Brian. 13) 3.8 also need work and so does CQ 1. The results of the regional wrokshops must be included soon. 14) I edited Boxes 3.2 and 3.4. I have not revisited Box 3.1. I will cc David Wratt on this to check out the new CQ. Regards Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4284. 2005-05-23 22:15:16 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 23 May 2005 22:15:16 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Post Beijing - next steps for First Order Draft to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi all - Hopefully, everyone has had a safe trip home and is ready for the next "intense" phase of the IPCC AR4 drafting. The purpose of this email is to lay out most of what we discussed in Beijing so that you all can start working on your assignments. Please start by reading the attached file "NoteToLAsMay23.doc." Note that we have also attached (see the NoteToLAsMay23 file for details first): - The new Chap 6 outline w/ leadership roles and page limits - The powerpoint file of Exec Summary Bullets from Beijing - An Excel file with the Chap6 FOD schedule and deadlines Please review the attached material immediately, and let us know if there any issues. Please note that the first MAJOR DEADLINE is June 3. Thanks in advance for all the hard work that we'll all be doing this summer. Best, Peck and Eystein -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\NoteToLAsMay23.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Ch06_FODMay23Outline.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\chap6BeijingFODBullets.ppt" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Chap6FODDeadlines.xls" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1145. 2005-05-23 22:46:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 23 May 2005 22:46:11 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: IPCC - your section to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith - thanks again for the help in Beijing. We hope you found a fabulous clay pot or at least some good views of China. We know it's going to be extra hard on you to get everything done on time, but we're hoping you can more-or-less stick to the schedule we just sent around. Your section is going to be the big one, and we need to make sure we have as much review and polishing as possible. If we don't we (especially you) will pay heavily at FOD review time. Lots of work now saves even more work later. Or so the real veterans tell us. Lastly, we wanted you to know that we can probably win another page or two (total, including figs and refs) if you end up needing it. Susan didn't promise this, but she gave us the feeling that we could get it if we ask - but probably only for your section, and maybe an extra page for general refs (although we're not going to mention this to the others, since we're not sure we can get it). Note that some of the methodological parts of your sections should go into supplemental material - this has to be written just as carefully, but it gives you another space buffer. All this means you can do a good job on figures, rather than the bare minimum. We're hoping you guys can generate something compelling enough for the TS and SPM - something that will replace the hockey-stick with something even more compelling. Anyhow, thanks in advance for what is most likely not going to be your number 1 summer to remember. That said, what we produce should provide real satisfaction. Best, Peck and Eystein -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 4882. 2005-05-24 08:28:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue May 24 08:28:13 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Review of Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH Robustness for Climatic Change to: Katarina Kivel Katerina, The review is attached. If you want it posted let me know. Best Regards Phil At 20:04 12/05/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, Attached is a letter from Steve Schneider requesting review of the above referenced paper, which is also sent as an attachment (ms and four figures). Please acknowledge receipt and let us know if you need a hard copy. Regards, Katarina Katarina Kivel Assistant Editor, CLIMATIC CHANGE Department of Biological Sciences Stanford University Stanford, California 94305-5020 TEL 650-725-6508 FAX 650-725-4387 EMAIL kivel@stanford.edu Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3327. 2005-05-25 16:02:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed May 25 16:02:26 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Ch 3 to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Things seem to be coming in. Will work on 3.5-3.7 tomorrow. 3.2 and the Appendices now back with David. The Appendices read pretty good - lots of useful background material. It will be shame to lose it to a web site. Once David gets these back these should be almost good enough to go out to all on July 15 (or whenever we said). A thought kept recurring - there must be a better way to do this ! Although the FOD reviews will be different from the ZOD (and many more), I'm prepared to come to Boulder for a week in early 2006 if needed. I think I can get the money from the UK to do this. Question is will be it be worthwhile. Better if we were both locked away somewhere other than one of our institutions, but then we wouldn't have the infrastructure, support (email, printers etc). Anyway, give it some thought. You'll know more than I do about some much the FOD and SOD change. Q is whether a week or a fortnight is sufficient. If we knew that a few of the key people in the chapter were at their desks, the text should show a marked improvement. Assuming here the majority of the Figures set by then - just a few need updating. Cheers Phil At 17:03 24/05/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil Thanks for update: monday is a holiday here: Memorial Day, seems weird that Brian is working? My approach to the revisions at this stage is not to take the material sent and wholesale replace it, but cautiously compare and insert if it makes sense. i.e. you and I need to act as editors with a fairly strong hand. I suspect 3.7 may have some useful material but it could degrade the section by further adding material that is not especially relevant. I'll bet it does not shorten it, which is desired still. I am clearly not on same page as Brian wrt clouds and radiation, and I am interested in his take on it all, given the new material and changes. I am not a fan of Norris' stuff. We have updated Fig 3.4.1 on water vapor thru 2004: the ocean trend drops to 1.2%/decade. So you can help a lot by putting your take on the 3.4 stuff: it may also require some careful wording to accommodate different views if we can't see eye to eye. For instance, on the dimming, the recent Pinker paper uses ISCCP and I simply don't believe the trends from ISCCP at all. Saying Wielicki and ISCCP agree actually damns them both. Or similarly saying Norris and ISCCP agree causes problems (this relates to upper cloud, which Norris gets from total minus lower, but those two sets of data are not homogeneous: there is not a lower cloud ob for every total; using means, esp zonal means without differencing each ob potentially causes major problems). Dennis is starting on the 3.6 figs today plus the Sahel one. Cheers Kevin Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3940. 2005-05-26 09:03:16 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 26 May 2005 09:03:16 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Fwd: RE: NATURE: 2005-02-02202 to: Phil Jones , tim Osborn , Keith Briffa , Scott Rutherford , "Wahl, Eugene R" , Caspar Ammann , mann@virginia.edu Dear All, So here is where we stand w/ the comment. Nature seemed adamant about not allowing us to focus on the synthetic example (ridiculous in my opinion), so I've been forced instead to move this into the Mann et al (pseudoproxy) J. Climate paper. That was in the final stage of revision, but Andrew Weaver has allowed me to add the Moberg-simulation results into the final version since it specifically addresses a request of one of the reviewers of our paper (who wanted to see us discuss implications of the pseudoproxy analyses for the Moberg et al example). I'll send everyone a copy of that when its finalized. They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic example, referring to the J. Cimate paper (which should be finally accepted upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a bit. I'm going to try to produce a revised draft of the Nature comment that confirms to what was outlined by Heike, and then send it to all of you for comments. At that point, we can decide if this is worth submitting, or if it is too flimsy w/out a supporting synthetic example. It would be extremely helpful if Tim or someone else could provide a very simple example (short of model-based pseudoproxies, etc.) that demonstrates the potential for bias we are talking about? I hope to be in touch again soon w/ a revised draft. Meanwhile, feel free to provide me any feedback... thanks, mike X-IronPort-AV: i="3.93,138,1114992000"; d="scan'208,217"; a="36995657:sNHT25392824" From: "Langenberg, Heike" To: "'Michael E. Mann'" Subject: RE: NATURE: 2005-02-02202 Date: Thu, 26 May 2005 10:49:34 +0100 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) X-UVA-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at fork3.mail.virginia.edu Dear Mike, thank you for the note. That scenario sounds fine, but please keep the discussion of the synthetic example brief (50-100 words). We will ask the referees whether they think the discussion of the results in the Journal of Climate adds important content to the comment, and if they feel it does, there is no objection from our part. I hope this will clarify our position for you. Best wishes, Heike -----Original Message----- From: Michael E. Mann [[1]mailto:mann@virginia.edu] Sent: 26 May 2005 00:01 To: h.langenberg@nature.com Subject: Re: NATURE: 2005-02-02202 Dear Heike, I'm sorry I've been unable to get back to you sooner. We have chosen to include our synthetic example in the final revisions of our manuscript to be published in "Journal of Climate", and it appears that the manuscript has reached the stage of final acceptance. So this part of our original submitted comment will now appear elsewhere (J. Climate) and obviously it would be inappropriate for us to publish those results again in Nature. Therefore, including this in our comment is a moot issue now. So, if we chose to revise our original submitted comment along the lines you have suggested in your email below, focusing on the application to the Mann and Jones (2003) dataset & demonstration that the procedure inherently inflates the low-frequency variability (and eliminating the latter part of the comment which focuses on the synthetic example), would there be any objection on Nature's part to us briefly discussing the synthetic network results in the context of the comment, referring to our manuscript accepted in Journal of Climate for further details? We're very much hoping that this is a scenario with which Nature would be comfortable. I thanks in advance for your response, Mike At 11:47 AM 5/10/2005, h.langenberg@nature.com wrote: Content-Disposition: inline Content-Length: 4973 Content-Transfer-Encoding: binary Content-Type: text/plain Dear Mike, thank you for the note, asking for clarification of our decision. However, I am afraid I am unable to follow your argument and therefore suggest that you revise your contribution along the lines indicated in our previous letter, if you wish to pursue publication in Nature. Specifically, both referees feel that a quantification of the possible bias in the Moberg et al estimate of low-frequency variability based on your synthetic example (the second part of your manuscript) is flawed or at least highly uncertain given the assumptions that go into your reconstruction (as, for example, outlined in referee 1's point 1). Based on these criticisms, we decided to decline publication of the present version of the comment, and I am sorry to say that we are unable to conclude that your remarks below address these criticisms satisfactorily. However, referee 2 notes that you identify a weakness in the Moberg et al approach (that is, that they normalise the data before filtering). We offered the possibility to resubmit specifically because we feel that this point (if significant) may be of interest to our broader audience. It seems to us that the referee's suggestion of providing a direct comparison between the Moberg reconstruction and results obtained with the same method but after correction of this weakness would be the most convincing quantification of its effect. I hope these comments will help to clarify our decision and help you decide how best to proceed. Best wishes, Heike -----Original Message----- From: Michael E. Mann [[2]mailto:mann@virginia.edu] Sent: 06 May 2005 19:58 To: h.langenberg@nature.com Subject: Re: Decision on Nature Manuscript 2005-02-02202 Dear Heike, Thanks for your email. We would be happy to revise our contribution for consideration by Nature. However, let me first seek some further clarification from you. Your email indicates that our revised comment should quantify "the spurious contribution to long-term variability introduced in the Moberg et al. reconstruction due to the erroneous normalising procedure prior to the filtering process". This is indeed what we felt we were doing, but apparently this was not communicated as clearly as it needed to be. In particular, your email suggests that our revised version eliminate the latter half of the contribution (the synthetic proxy or "pseudoproxy" analysis). This is problematic, because this is actually where the key scientific points are made, and where general conclusions about the potential bias of the method can be drawn. The first half of our contribution simply shows that using the Moberg et data data applied to the Mann and Jones (2003) reconstruction inflates the low-frequency variance. It does not (nor can it) address whether or not the inflation of variance is realistic or not. The reviewers are in fact incorrect when they conclude that this part of our analysis demonstrates a bias in the Moberg et al method. It doesn't! Only an analysis (as described in the second half of our comment) in which the exact answer is known, so that competing methods can be objectively tested against a "ground truth", can address whether the additional variance is spurious or not. In other words, with a synthetic example, where, unlike the real world, the actual climate history is known, we can determine whether or not a particular method returns the correct reconstruction. This was described in some detail in the supporting manuscript we provided, which was presumably seen by the reviewers? But the reviewers, at least in part, fail to have grasped this key point. In the synthetic example, we showed that the Moberg et al method does not return the actual model history when applied to realistic synthetic proxies. So there can be no question that the method exhibits a bias. Its purely a matter of how *large* the bias is. We feel that this point has somehow been lost on the reviewers. The degree of bias does indeed depend on signal-to-noise ratios, and we can easily quantify that in a revised comment. Part of the confusion (at least with reviewer #2) appears to have been with our Figure 3 which left out one important piece of information (the uncertainty in the Moberg et al-type reconstruction). That is easily rectified as well. So we would like to request that we not drop the synthetic proxy or "pseudoproxy" aspect of the analysis, which is absolutely essential to the argument we are making, but instead revise this part of the analysis to address the criticisms raised by the original authors, and to clarify precisely what is shown by such a synthetic example. In the process, we would we would quantify, as requested, the dependence of the bias on e.g. signal-to-noise characteristics of the pseudoproxy data. Please let me know if it would be acceptable for us to proceed as suggested above. Thanks in advance, Mike This email has been sent through the NPG Manuscript Tracking System NY-610A-NPG&MTS ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ******************************************************************************** DISCLAIMER: This e-mail is confidential and should not be used by anyone who is not the original intended recipient. If you have received this e-mail in error please inform the sender and delete it from your mailbox or any other storage mechanism. Neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept liability for any statements made which are clearly the sender's own and not expressly made on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or one of its agents. Please note that neither Macmillan Publishers Limited nor any of its agents accept any responsibility for viruses that may be contained in this e-mail or its attachments and it is your responsibility to scan the e-mail and attachments (if any). No contracts may be concluded on behalf of Macmillan Publishers Limited or its agents by means of e-mail communication. Macmillan Publishers Limited Registered in England and Wales with registered number 785998 Registered Office Brunel Road, Houndmills, Basingstoke RG21 6XS ******************************************************************************** ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 1181. 2005-05-26 09:13:41 ______________________________________________________ cc: trenbert@ucar.edu, "Thomas C Peterson" , "Parker, David (Met Office)" date: Thu May 26 09:13:41 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: World's First Global Thermometer to: Mike MacCracken Mike, Thanks for emailing this. Not seen it. The original is junk science at its best ! It seems that they have little idea of the literature. I recall reviewing a paper on global temperatures in the mid-1980s, where a group at a US University (don't recall which) who just took the NCAR dataset and averaged all the surafce temps together. No anomalies, no allowance for coverage, no SSTs. Claimed there were massive jumps at certain times of several degrees ! This seems more of the same sort of awful science. HadCRU, NCDC and GISS all get figures out within a few weeks of the end of the month and all agree. A paper in submission to GRL saying this - I know it's all been said before. My main reason for replying though is that soon (hopefully) you'll be able to point out that satellites too show warming. Look out for the CCSP report on vertical temperature trends when it's available for open review sometime from late August. Also the hockey stick has been reproduced by Eugene Wahl and Caspar Amman (Alfred Uni and NCAR) and they go on to reproduce what McIntyre/McKitrick got wrong. They have two papers in submission and there are at least 3 others showing much the same. Ch 6 is likely to conclude much the same as the TAR wrt the last 1000 years. It also seems that borehole evidence has been reconciled. I reckon you'll have at lot more articles like this to respond to in the coming months, but a lot more material to work with. IPCC Chapters will be available for review from September. Cheers Phil At 19:31 25/05/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil--I hope I got the response right--and thought you might be interested in the original article, if you have not already seen it. Mike Subject: Re: World's First Global Thermometer Hi Jane--Well, JunkScience.com is just that--junk science. Certainly, he identifies a number of the challenges First, the scientific results are actually looking to estimate the "change' in global average surface temeprature and not its value, per se--he is right that a global average temperature is an artifact. Becasue most of the stations are likely in the Northern Hemisphere, it is likely that the summer month average temeprature he calculates will be greater than the winter average temperature--for the change in value, however, one needs to get the departure of the June temperature from the average June temperature, etc.--just the kind of seasonal adjustment done for the economic and job indicators (and that can take a good bit of time to work out accurately). Near as I can tell from his writeup, this is neglected even though it will surely be a much larger cycling than the amount of change we are looking for. In addition, each year is distinct, and so there will be variations from year-to-year, and not comparing to a long-term, carefully checked average is essential. To get at a valid estimate of the average of the local changes in surface temperature around the Earth, great care has to be taken to make sure one has good and self-consistent baseline temperatures to work with that are not contaminated by station moves, changes in instruments and measuring technique, development around stations, and many other factors that this JunkScience effort calls "statistical mysteries"--well, maybe they are mysteries to the writer, but they are necessary and why experts work so hard at it. In economics, the equivalent type of adjustment is, for example, adjustments across brands and models of cars or gasoline, etc. , and there are all sorts of other adjustments that it often takes them months to make sure they have right. This is all really necessary to be doing to get a reliable picture from the first estimate. Then, there is the issue of coverage--on land going from an irregular array of stations to a useful measure (so combine, carefully accounting for location and area represented--more "statistical mysteries" roughly equivalent to accounting in the inflation index for how much of each thing a person buys). There are, for example, a great many more stations in Europe than in Africa, so one does have to be careful in averaging, etc. Since the ocean covers about 70% of the Earth's surface, its changes do have to be included, and this has to also be done carefully using the right type of measurement to get an equivalently representative and consistent indication of temperature (and because ocean measurements come via different techniques, one has to be especially careful). Satellite estimates of surface temeprature, which are very good in a relative sense (one value compared to anohter) can be used to help interpolate between surface measurements that are more accurately done in a particular location, but an evaluation needs to be done about how they compare with what one might get elsewhere. So, what JunkScience has is a number that comes out in real-time--well, congratulations, but it is roughly equivalent on the stock market to having the average of the prices of all the stocks that trade any given day without accounting for how many shares of which stock traded that day, whether any splits occurred, and so on--this is just why there are normalized stock averages that are carefully controlled (those 'statistical mysteries"). Mike World's First Global Thermometer Friday, May 20, 2005 By Steven Milloy As the Northern Hemisphere enters the summer season and natural global warming occurs, it¹s a good time to consider the concept of global temperature perhaps the most talked about, but least understood, component of the global warming controversy. Since 1988 when National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) researcher James Hansen launched global warming alarmism with his congressional testimony that manmade emissions of greenhouse gases were warming the Earth¹s atmosphere, global warming has been a hot topic. The controversy only heightened with the advent of the so-called ³hockey stick² graph that purports to show a dramatic rise in global temperature during the 20th century. At JunkScience.com, we¹re trying to shed light on the problem of relying on global temperature as an indicator of global warming by developing and displaying the world¹s first (almost) real-time global thermometer. We gather temperature readings from about 1,000 surface-based temperature stations around the globe, calculating an average temperature, which we call the ³global mean temperature² (GMT). We use ³raw² temperature data that isn¹t statistically massaged to account for seasonal variation or for the urban heat island effect the phenomenon caused by the heat-retaining properties of concrete and asphalt in urban areas that is known to artificially increase local temperatures. We display the current GMT and maintain old GMTs to track weekly, monthly and, eventually, annual trends. From what we can tell, our data track pretty well with the temperature estimates published by other climate researchers, which are available only weeks to months after the data are collected. At the time of this column, the GMT according to our calculations is roughly 62 degrees Fahrenheit. So what does that mean exactly? We¹re not really sure. First, global temperature is a contrived concept. There is no magical point in the Earth¹s atmosphere to place a thermometer and take the planet¹s temperature. Moreover, if you live in a polar or tropical region (or almost anywhere for that matter), a GMT of 62 degrees F is patently meaningless what matters is what¹s going on outside where you are. Our GMT is based on surface records. But if you look at a map of weather stations around the globe, you¹ll readily see the built-in bias of temperature readings from surface-based weather stations. The overwhelming majority of surface-based weather stations are land-based relatively few temperature readings come from ocean-based facilities, resulting in a major upward bias in available temperature data since about 75 percent of the Earth¹s surface is water. An additional bias arises from the fact that there is more land mass and, therefore, more surface temperature stations in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. There¹s an even further bias introduced by the tendency of land-based weather stations to be located in more heavily populated areas, which are subject to the urban heat island effect. Relatively speaking, not many temperature readings come from the wilds of northern and central Asia or eastern Africa, for example. There are alternatives to the JunkScience.com-calculated GMT none, however, are available in real-time. The National Climactic Data Center collects temperature data from about 3,000 surface-based weather stations. But researchers often try to statistically adjust these data to account for the urban heat island effect, which produces results that are more statistical mysteries than true averages of global surface temperature readings. Other researchers calculate GMTs from data collected by satellites and weather balloons. These data measure atmospheric temperatures from all around the Earth and don¹t suffer from the same biases as the surface temperature data. It¹s important to note that without the upward bias inherent to the surface temperature data, the satellite/balloon temperature measurements show no significant increase since data collection began 30 years ago. Global warming alarmism is largely based on the notion that global temperatures have increased since the 19th century industrial revolution due to manmade emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide. The infamous hockey stick graph tries to dramatize the alleged increase in temperature by going back 1,000 years. But the pre-20th century GMTs in the hockey stick graph for the most part don¹t come from thermometer readings. Instead they are guesstimates of GMTS based on geographically and temporally scattered data scavenged from tree rings, ice cores and other dubious proxies for thermometers. Whether calculated in real-time or two months after-the-fact, surface-based calculations of GMT are inherently and impossibly biased. In this light, the hockey stick¹s GMTs over the last 1,000 years are near worthless yet it is this very data that are being used to drive global warming hysteria. We hope that the JunkScience.com global thermometer will help demystify the flawed science that has led to the present state of climate clamoring. Remember, just 30 years ago, early climate alarmists were actually fretting about global cooling. It¹s shocking that our government may commit us to potentially harmful energy and policies like the international global warming treaty known as the Kyoto Protocol or the legislation introduced in the U.S. Senate by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., based on such an elusive, if not meaningless, concept as global temperature. Steven Milloy publishes JunkScience.com and CSRwatch.com, is adjunct scholar at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and is the author of Junk Science Judo: Self-defense Against Health Scares and Scams (Cato Institute, 2001). Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3094. 2005-05-26 15:12:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk, pmzhai@cma.gov.cn, Kevin Trenberth date: Thu May 26 15:12:40 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fig. 3.7.1 to: "David Easterling" Dave, Thanks for the update on the maps. Can you calculate a CRU time series from what you have? Exactly which dataset do you have? Is it CRU TS 2.0? If this is it then OK. This is the infilled one, so variance may be a little low in early years. Hopefully your calculations will agree with Aiguo. I don't have anyone here to do this at the moment. There seem a lot of deadlines at the moment here, which is making it hard for me to find quality time for Ch3. Luckily there is a holiday weekend coming up and I hope to use that to get 3.5-3.7 looked over. 3.2 is now done and agreed with David. I'll tweak anything when I get your spatial maps. I came in with good intentions today, but have been answering emails and seeing students. As for smoothing, we didn't agree. For temperature we are going with the HC 'approximate' 20-year binomial. I'll attach a figure David's produced to let you see that. I reckon if you did a 13-year binomial you'll get something like it. Remember to send David all the series for trend estimation when you have them. I am assuming Bin Wang did 3.7.1. Can you clarify with Dave exactly what 3.7.1 is? Give him the method to calculate it. Also clarify the two Chen's. I see that David has emailed his reading of the English. I was about to wright something like this. It is definitely the difference between two period averages and not extremes years in the periods. The caption obviously needs a lot of work - I'll have a go at that when I get to it. If the 3 of us are having difficulties, what hope have we for the readers. If you can't get anything remotely like it I would suggest we drop it - but try David's English translation first ! Cheers Phil At 14:11 26/05/2005, David Easterling wrote: Phil, We will have the maps redone next week and I have started reworking the text for 3.3 Do you have a CRU global pcp time series for 1901-2003 you can send or should we calculate? I have the numbers for the figure Aiguo Dai sent. Also, we never decided on a standard smoothing routine. My preference is for a 13 or 9 point binomial with reflected ends, but we need to decide. Last, it is still not clear who did figure 3.7.1, was it Bin Wang? The two Chen papers are by different authors, the 2004 EA monsoon paper is by T-C Chen of Iowa State U., and the 2002 paper and data set creator is Ming Chen at NOAA/CPC. I have requested the PREC/L data set from CPC. But I am not even sure exactly what 3.7.1 is, the title says change in mean annual range between the two periods, which I interpret to mean the difference between the highest and lowest years for the post 1976 period minus the difference between the highest and lowest from the pre-1976 period giving a measure of change in year to year consistency of monsoons. Also, there is a reference in the text that Chen et al. (2004) compiled PREC/L, but that is not the case, it should be Chen et al. (2002) as creator, but with an update to 2003. Dave Phil Jones wrote: Dave, I still don't understand why Bin Wang is involved in this ! Have you contacted Chen? Maybe it was Bin Wang. Have you looked into trying to reproduce it? Panmao has sent me a revised 3.7.3 using HadSLP2. I'm going to contact Rob Allan about this one as he's been involved in developing HadSLP2. Will you be in a position to send revised Figures soon? Any date also when you'll be working on the text of 3.3? Cheers Phil At 19:44 25/05/2005, David Easterling wrote: Phil, I am trying to track down the source of Fig. 3.7.1 the epoch difference in monsoon rainfall map. It has a reference of Chen et al. 2004, which is the J. Climate paper on the east Asian monsoon, but this figure is not in the paper. Someone must of plotted it using their data, but not sure who. Do you know? Dave -- David R. Easterling, Ph.D. Chief, Scientific Services Division NOAA's National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 USA V: 828-271-4675 F: 828-271-4328 David.Easterling@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- David R. Easterling, Ph.D. Chief, Scientific Services Division NOAA's National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 USA V: 828-271-4675 F: 828-271-4328 David.Easterling@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3170. 2005-05-26 15:35:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu May 26 15:35:35 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: revising section on tropospheric temps for IPCC Chapter 9 to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, See if Bill can split the differences between day and night launches. If he has data that splits the 00 from 12Z, it's not too difficult to separate the two as the tropics mostly have near 12 hr days and nights. There are probably only a few sites that do both. Might be that only Singapore, Darwin, Tahiti and a Caribbean one have both. Maybe more in Australian region. Cheers Phil At 15:16 26/05/2005, you wrote: Hi all I am happy with 3.4.1 and it accommodates the latest developments, almost. I am attaching the text. However, yesterday we got a new paper from Susan Solomon and David Thmopson (Thompson and Soilomon 2005) J Clim "Recent stratospheric climate trends: global structure and tropospheric linkages" I read it last night and I think a lot of it is wrong. It is based on radiosondes and NCEP reanalyses. Yesterday I played golf with Bill Randel who tells me he had done what I have been advocating for some time now: taking the MSU record and differencing it with sonde records at those locations. He says it is very revealing and shows spurious unphysical features in ALL tropical sondings. He has completed the work and is writing it up. But I have not seen any of the results. Please don't pass this on. Fu is also working on the sonde MSU comparison. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Neville, Attached for your perusal only is the Carl/Wentz pdf of the latest RSS work. Roy Spencer admitted to a mistake in the UAH 2LT work at the Chicago CCSP meeting May 16-17. Relates to a sign on the correction for diurnal cycle changes. John Christy has told me that he will send me their revised version. His email of May 20 didn't make much sense - he's clearly wriggling, saying the mistake isn't that important. We will likely know more in a few weeks, so this issue isn't likely to be resolved in time for the FOD. With this problem and the earlier changes, UAH are losing credibility. I've not yet looked at our section in 3.4.1 but for the moment we will be going with the attachment and also with recent Fu papers. Upshot of all this is that the likely outlier now is the sondes. John Lanzante and the HC (probably) are working on looking at tropical sondes and separating them into day and night launches if at all possible. Ben Santer is going to keep me informed of how CCSP progresses. David should hear as well at some stage during June. They are on a tight timeframe now. There is an 8 week open review period for CCSP, but not till after Aug 12. This open review requires open access to all pdfs in press (no passwords or any control), so there may be issues wrt Science submissions (the attached and a paper by Ben et al.). David and/or Kevin may elaborate, but it seems watch this space is the only advice I can give. I could send our latest draft, but I'm not sure if I have all the figures for the relevant section. Cheers Phil At 08:03 26/05/2005, Neville Nicholls wrote: Hi David. I am just starting the process of revising what Chapter 9 will be saying about free atmosphere temperature. My intention is to start with what Chapter 3 will be saying in the FOD. I wouldnt want to stray too far from what you are going to say. Could you let me know if you think there will be substantial changes from your ZOD, and if so, let me know the broad direction of such changes? It would be great to have access to your early re-drafts even before I start revising Chapter 9, so we can ensure compatability. I am also interested in some recent work by RSS (I think) apparently finding more problems with the UAH data. I dont have details of this, so I may be completely wrong - are you aware of such work? Cheers, Neville Neville Nicholls Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre 9th Floor, 700 Collins Street Docklands,Melbourne, AUSTRALIA PO Box 1289K, Melbourne, AUSTRALIA 3001 Phone: +61 (0)3 9669 4407 Fax: +61 (0)3 9669 4660 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1713. 2005-05-26 20:00:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 26 May 2005 20:00:54 UT from: grlonline@agu.org subject: 2005GL023335 Request to Review from Geophysical Research Letters to: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Dr. Briffa: Would you be willing and available to review "Reconstructed Drought Variability on the Crimean Peninsula over the Past Four Centuries and Tree-Ring Age Correction of Saki Lake Chronology" by Olga Solomina, Nicole Davi, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Gordon Jacoby, submitted for possible publication in the Geophysical Research Letters. The manuscript's abstract is: The first verifiable annual reconstruction of spring (April-July) precipitation is presented for Crimea, Ukraine. It is derived from Crimean pine (Pinus hamata D.Sosn) ring-width data spanning 1620-2002. The reconstruction accounts for 37% of the variance in observed precipitation over 1896-1988. Most droughts recorded in Crimean historical documents in the 17th-19th centuries coincide with below-average reconstructed precipitation in the concurrent or following year. An 11-year filtered version of the reconstruction correlates with an annually- laminated sediment thickness record from Saki Lake (4188 years long), once the lake record is shifted backward by 15 years. The offset may be explained by anthropogenic changes at the lake at the end of the 19th century. The significant relationship between the lake sediments and reconstruction suggests that the lake record is also a moisture indicator. If so, the wettest period of the past 1500 years (~ AD1050-1250) broadly coincides with the "Medieval Warm Period" in Crimea. If you agree to review this manuscript, I would ask for your comments within 14 days from your acceptance. To ACCEPT, click on the link below: If you are unable to review this manuscript at this time, I would appreciate any suggestions of other potential reviewers who would be qualified to examine this manuscript. (Via reply e-mail.) To DECLINE, click on the link below: If you have any questions or need more information feel free to reply to this e-mail. Thank you for your consideration and support of Geophysical Research Letters. Sincerely, James E. Saiers Associate Editor Geophysical Research Letters 2804. 2005-05-27 15:40:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 27 May 2005 15:40:13 +0100 from: "Tett, Simon" subject: Paper to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Tim, Hi thanks very much. Quite interesting and I am happy to be a co-author. I think I would like to see a complete draft before making more comments though! Main comment -- can you be more quantitative i.e. use control data to compute uncertainties and then compare models with each other and the obs. I will write some text for the model description (I need to do it for Jason as well). The CET record is not good early on. I am not sure how to quantify this. Note that David Parker has a paper on uncertainty in CET. Models also likely to underestimate grid point var. I suspect the air temperature data is very poor nth of 70N and sth of 45S. Any way of including this in your analysis? Page 6, para 2. Note in HadCM3 there are quite strong changes in NH land snow cover due to trees being chopped down... I don't think solar var in ECHO-G is much greater than in HadCM3 -- see my last tech report. For your 50-year filter what are you doing for your last 25 years? (Mann, 2004 has some ideas). Simon Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org 272. 2005-05-30 06:46:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: stocker@climate.unibe.ch date: Mon, 30 May 2005 06:46:01 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Re: FW: Imprint to: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk, Keith Briffa Hi Simon and Keith, sorry for not answering before. We had the annual external evaluation of the Bjerknes Centre last week, which kept me busy. I see the points raised by the Hadley Centre, although I am not sure I agree. If our community does not make strong statements, we may risk being further marginalised, and even though this will be annoying some in the Commission it might in balance make it worthwhile. The reality of the mattter is that Met Office is sceptical to sending official complaints, and the same position is also taken by CNRS. This will dilute the protest, and i think we need to follow the alternative strategy of informing our national reps. This approach could be strengthened if we write a memo, summarizing our concerns, i.e. something which would be very close to the leter we intended to send to the Commission, and made sure all national reps get a copy. Thus our arguments would be well known. In addition we should request a meeting with the Commission. Could you let me know if you think we should take this route? If yes, I can have a draft ready tomorrow. Eystein At 10:15 +0100 26-05-05, Tett, Simon wrote: >Eystein & Keith, > I have talked to Adrian Broad (who is responsible for links with the EU >amongst other things). He has talked to Dave Griggs. > >Met Office position is basically that I should not sign any formal >letter to the commission as it will change nothing and just annoy them >(which would do the Met Office no good). Other proposals, that the Met >Office was involved with, also seem to have had evaluation problems so >Imprint is not our only concern. > >Adrian thinks the best way forward is to forward our concerns directly >to our national representatives so that they are aware of the >`evidence'/opinions regarding the latest round of evaluations. Adrian >has also told me that Dave will have a private word with contacts he >knows in DG(Research) who manage the budget for GCE (Global Change and >Environment) under FP6 (and forwards into the equivalent top level theme >in FP7). > >Adrian thinks the best way forward would be for all partners in Imprint >to raise the issues through their national reps + other contacts rather >than through a formal complaint. > >Simon > >On Thu, 2005-05-26 at 04:46, Eystein Jansen wrote: >> Keith, what do you think? >> Concerning the committee having met, this is only >> partly corrrect, as they have approved the short >> listing of proposals to start negotiations with, >> but haven¬¥t formally decided on giving any >> projects the green light. This will happen in >> September as far as I have been informed. >> >> Some say it will help us writing a complaint >> which will be seen by both the national reps of >> the committee as well as parliament members. >> >> >> At 16:06 +0100 25-05-05, Tett, Simon wrote: >> >Both, >> > see Dave's comments below. Adrian Broad >> >tells me that the appropriate committee has >> >already met so we will not be able to change the >> >decision. >> > >> >Simon >> > >> >Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. >> >Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) >> >Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB >> >Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 >> >Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 >> >E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >> >Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org >> > >> > >> >-----Original Message----- >> >From: Griggs, Dave >> >Sent: 24 May 2005 16:47 >> >To: Tett, Simon; Broad, Adrian >> >Cc: Brohan, Philip; Hewitt, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Jones, Chris D >> >Subject: RE: Imprint >> > >> > >> >Simon >> > >> >I think we have to be very cautious about doing >> >something like this. It is unlikely to be >> >effective (as acknowledged by Eystein) and may >> >be counterproductive as it may even predjudice >> >the Commission against future bids. My preferred >> >route would be to make the concerns very clear >> >to the Commission, but to do it informally so > > >that they are not embarrassed in public. >> > >> >Dave >> > >> > >> > >> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >> > >> > Dr Dave Griggs, Director Climate Research >> >>Met Office Hadley Centre >> >>Fitzroy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom >> >>Tel: +44 (0)1392 886615 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 >> >>E-mail: dave.griggs@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >> >> >> > >> > >> >-----Original Message----- >> >From: Tett, Simon >> >Sent: 24 May 2005 10:43 >> >To: Broad, Adrian; Griggs, Dave >> >Cc: Brohan, Philip; Hewitt, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Jones, Chris D >> >Subject: Imprint >> > >> > >> > >> >Adrian & Dave, >> > We have just received the evaluation of >> >IMPRINT. Though we passed the minimum criteria >> >we are unlikely to get funded. I think some of >> >the referee's comments were fair. The proposal >> >was too broad and trying to do too many things. >> > >> >However my colleagues are extremely unhappy that a competing proposal >> >(Millennium) looks like it will be funded. We >> >feel that (at least in stage 1) Millennium did >> >not really answer the call. Below is an email >> >from Eystein Jansen who thinks we should >> >protest. On a personal basis I would like to see >> >more evidence before signing onto such a thing. >> >However I would also like to get a Met Office >> >corporate view on this before doing anything >> >else. Simon >> > >> >------------------------------------------------ >> >Dear friends of the Imprint - SSC, >> > >> >After seeing the evaluation summary of our >> >proposal, and not least the same for Millennium, >> >it is clear to me that we have been very badly >> >treated, first by the public advice from the >> >Commission in Utrecht who advised the community >> >to create a proposal which we did, but which is >> >orthogonal to what they now have decided to >> >negotiate, later by the random way we were >> >reviewed and the many inconsistencies in the >> >evaluation. Compared to this the Millennium >> >review was full of subjective phrases and a >> >number of negative aspects were glossed over. >> >The review is an insult, and it appears likely >> >that elements in the panel bear some grudges >> >against our community. In order to get the 0.5 >> >point difference between Imprint and Millennium >> >they had to give a number of very imbalanced >> >statements. They also had to raise the management >> >score of Millennium to 4 by the xtended panel >> >despite critisisms by the reviewers that the >> >management was not well laid out. >> > >> >I feel that the review was very biased and the >> >result is that they will probably fund a project >> >with only limited relevance to the call, and miss >> >a major opportunity of integrating European >> >paleoclimate research and climate modelling and >> >create a new major step forward. >> > >> >We have been advised to send a formal letter of >> >complaint to the Commission, asking for a renewed >> >evaluation, not because we think there is a good >> >chance that it will lead to much, but we think it >> >is important that they know that they have upset >> >a community consisting of top level European >> >scientists, This may help us in the longer term. >> > >> >The advice I have got is to send this to Pierre >> >Valette, co-signed by the key partners, both >> >their PIs and head of administration, with copies >> >to our individual national members of the Global >> >Change Panel of the EU. >> >So far there is no formal decision on which >> >proposal to fund, this may happen in September >> >after negotiations with the selected proposals. >> >There is a seldom precedence in Europe that such >> >an intervention has been successful, but very >> >rarely. >> > >> >In phrasing such a letter we have to be very >> >careful and make sure our message is clear and >> >fair, but I think it needs to be done. >> > >> >I would therefore ask you to respond immediately >> >to this mail as to whether you think we should go >> >this route or not. We will then in a few days >> >send out a draft for comments, if you agree that >> >we shall send in a complaint. We have to move >> >fast here, so I hope you will be quick. > > > >> >Concerning the other proposals on what to do, >> >there are many good ideas, and I think we should >> >have a meeting in the autumn to discuss the >> >strategy of securing paleo in the 7th Framwork >> >program. The text is out for review now, and we >> >all need to suggest changes through our national >> >representatives. I will distribute a list of who >> >this is for the various countries over the >> >week-end. >> >I am also working on formulating text to help >> >launch our ideas in teh European Parliament via >> >AtteˆÇ¬¥s wife. >> >Best wishes, >> > >> >Eystein >> >-- >> >Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. >> >Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) >> >Meteorology Building, University of Reading RG6 6BB >> >Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 >> >Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 >> >E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >> >Global climate data sets are available from >> >http://www.hadobs.org Dr Simon Tett Managing >> >Scientist, Data development and applications. >> >Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) >> >Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB >> >Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 >> >Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 >> >E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >> >Global climate data sets are available from http://www.hadobs.org >> -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 2034. 2005-05-31 10:11:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue May 31 10:11:10 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: FW: Imprint to: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk Date: Mon, 30 May 2005 06:46:01 +0200 To: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk, Keith Briffa From: Eystein Jansen Subject: Re: FW: Imprint Cc: stocker@climate.unibe.ch X-checked-clean: by exiscan on noralf X-Scanner: 5b3c8d86a19165b1fc6316d8c0ee82f5 [1]http://tjinfo.uib.no/virus.html X-UiB-SpamFlag: NO UIB: -15 hits, 8.0 required X-UiB-SpamReport: spamassassin found; -15 From is listed in 'whitelist_from' X-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-Spam-Level: / X-Spam-Flag: NO Hi Simon and Keith, sorry for not answering before. We had the annual external evaluation of the Bjerknes Centre last week, which kept me busy. I see the points raised by the Hadley Centre, although I am not sure I agree. If our community does not make strong statements, we may risk being further marginalised, and even though this will be annoying some in the Commission it might in balance make it worthwhile. The reality of the mattter is that Met Office is sceptical to sending official complaints, and the same position is also taken by CNRS. This will dilute the protest, and i think we need to follow the alternative strategy of informing our national reps. This approach could be strengthened if we write a memo, summarizing our concerns, i.e. something which would be very close to the leter we intended to send to the Commission, and made sure all national reps get a copy. Thus our arguments would be well known. In addition we should request a meeting with the Commission. Could you let me know if you think we should take this route? If yes, I can have a draft ready tomorrow. Eystein At 10:15 +0100 26-05-05, Tett, Simon wrote: Eystein & Keith, I have talked to Adrian Broad (who is responsible for links with the EU amongst other things). He has talked to Dave Griggs. Met Office position is basically that I should not sign any formal letter to the commission as it will change nothing and just annoy them (which would do the Met Office no good). Other proposals, that the Met Office was involved with, also seem to have had evaluation problems so Imprint is not our only concern. Adrian thinks the best way forward is to forward our concerns directly to our national representatives so that they are aware of the `evidence'/opinions regarding the latest round of evaluations. Adrian has also told me that Dave will have a private word with contacts he knows in DG(Research) who manage the budget for GCE (Global Change and Environment) under FP6 (and forwards into the equivalent top level theme in FP7). Adrian thinks the best way forward would be for all partners in Imprint to raise the issues through their national reps + other contacts rather than through a formal complaint. Simon On Thu, 2005-05-26 at 04:46, Eystein Jansen wrote: Keith, what do you think? Concerning the committee having met, this is only partly corrrect, as they have approved the short listing of proposals to start negotiations with, but haven¬¥t formally decided on giving any projects the green light. This will happen in September as far as I have been informed. Some say it will help us writing a complaint which will be seen by both the national reps of the committee as well as parliament members. At 16:06 +0100 25-05-05, Tett, Simon wrote: >Both, > see Dave's comments below. Adrian Broad >tells me that the appropriate committee has >already met so we will not be able to change the >decision. > >Simon > >Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. >Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) >Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB >Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 >Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 >E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk [2]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >Global climate data sets are available from [3]http://www.hadobs.org > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Griggs, Dave >Sent: 24 May 2005 16:47 >To: Tett, Simon; Broad, Adrian >Cc: Brohan, Philip; Hewitt, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Jones, Chris D >Subject: RE: Imprint > > >Simon > >I think we have to be very cautious about doing >something like this. It is unlikely to be >effective (as acknowledged by Eystein) and may >be counterproductive as it may even predjudice >the Commission against future bids. My preferred >route would be to make the concerns very clear >to the Commission, but to do it informally so > >that they are not embarrassed in public. > >Dave > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Dr Dave Griggs, Director Climate Research >>Met Office Hadley Centre >>Fitzroy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom >>Tel: +44 (0)1392 886615 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 >>E-mail: dave.griggs@metoffice.gov.uk [4]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >> > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Tett, Simon >Sent: 24 May 2005 10:43 >To: Broad, Adrian; Griggs, Dave >Cc: Brohan, Philip; Hewitt, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Jones, Chris D >Subject: Imprint > > > >Adrian & Dave, > We have just received the evaluation of >IMPRINT. Though we passed the minimum criteria >we are unlikely to get funded. I think some of >the referee's comments were fair. The proposal >was too broad and trying to do too many things. > >However my colleagues are extremely unhappy that a competing proposal >(Millennium) looks like it will be funded. We >feel that (at least in stage 1) Millennium did >not really answer the call. Below is an email >from Eystein Jansen who thinks we should >protest. On a personal basis I would like to see >more evidence before signing onto such a thing. >However I would also like to get a Met Office >corporate view on this before doing anything >else. Simon > >------------------------------------------------ >Dear friends of the Imprint - SSC, > >After seeing the evaluation summary of our >proposal, and not least the same for Millennium, >it is clear to me that we have been very badly >treated, first by the public advice from the >Commission in Utrecht who advised the community >to create a proposal which we did, but which is >orthogonal to what they now have decided to >negotiate, later by the random way we were >reviewed and the many inconsistencies in the >evaluation. Compared to this the Millennium >review was full of subjective phrases and a >number of negative aspects were glossed over. >The review is an insult, and it appears likely >that elements in the panel bear some grudges >against our community. In order to get the 0.5 >point difference between Imprint and Millennium >they had to give a number of very imbalanced >statements. They also had to raise the management >score of Millennium to 4 by the xtended panel >despite critisisms by the reviewers that the >management was not well laid out. > >I feel that the review was very biased and the >result is that they will probably fund a project >with only limited relevance to the call, and miss >a major opportunity of integrating European >paleoclimate research and climate modelling and >create a new major step forward. > >We have been advised to send a formal letter of >complaint to the Commission, asking for a renewed >evaluation, not because we think there is a good >chance that it will lead to much, but we think it >is important that they know that they have upset >a community consisting of top level European >scientists, This may help us in the longer term. > >The advice I have got is to send this to Pierre >Valette, co-signed by the key partners, both >their PIs and head of administration, with copies >to our individual national members of the Global >Change Panel of the EU. >So far there is no formal decision on which >proposal to fund, this may happen in September >after negotiations with the selected proposals. >There is a seldom precedence in Europe that such >an intervention has been successful, but very >rarely. > >In phrasing such a letter we have to be very >careful and make sure our message is clear and >fair, but I think it needs to be done. > >I would therefore ask you to respond immediately >to this mail as to whether you think we should go >this route or not. We will then in a few days >send out a draft for comments, if you agree that >we shall send in a complaint. We have to move >fast here, so I hope you will be quick. > > >Concerning the other proposals on what to do, >there are many good ideas, and I think we should >have a meeting in the autumn to discuss the >strategy of securing paleo in the 7th Framwork >program. The text is out for review now, and we >all need to suggest changes through our national >representatives. I will distribute a list of who >this is for the various countries over the >week-end. >I am also working on formulating text to help >launch our ideas in teh European Parliament via >AtteǬ¥s wife. >Best wishes, > >Eystein >-- >Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. >Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) >Meteorology Building, University of Reading RG6 6BB >Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 >Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 >E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk [5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >Global climate data sets are available from >[6]http://www.hadobs.org Dr Simon Tett Managing >Scientist, Data development and applications. >Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) >Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB >Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 >Mobex: +44-(0)1392 886886 >E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk [7]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk >Global climate data sets are available from [8]http://www.hadobs.org -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4213. 2005-05-31 11:26:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue May 31 11:26:09 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: WGII submission deadline different from WGI to: trenberth@ucar.edu Kevin, WGI and II working to different deadlines. I'm happier with our date, as it should mean we can finalize sections sooner. I propose to send you the current chapter as of June 3 at 5pm my time. I should have 3.5-3.7 finished (at least by me, Roxana, Jim and Panamo). Brian says his revised 3.4 will be later this week (family bereavement). I've been through the Boxes and 3.1. No figures or text yet from Dave. Forwarded two papers to Albert and asked how he's getting on. My fod folder with pdfs in now has 20 in it. Cheers Phil Deadline: Submission of material for assessment by the IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment The IPCC is currently undertaking its Fourth Assessment, due to be completed in 2007. Working Group II (WGII) deals with the impacts of climate change, adaptation and vulnerability. If you have written, or know of, material which has appeared since the last assessment (in 2001) and which should be assessed by WGII, please be aware of the following deadlines for submission: The absolute deadline for submission is 14th April 2006. If you plan to submit material after 1st April 2006, you need to warn the WGII in advance by email to [1]ipcc-wg2@metoffice.gov.uk . With respect to what sorts of literature can be assessed: 1. Grey literature can be assessed, following IPCC procedures, which require authors to supply copies for assessment, and to deposit a copy with the WGII Technical Support Unit. 2. Peer-reviewed literature is preferred. Peer-reviewed literature: 1. The deadline of 14th April 2006 applies to submitted manuscripts, not to published papers. 2. Papers would need to be in print by 3rd November 2006, unless under very exceptional circumstances. Grey literature The deadline of 14th April 2006 is absolute. You can submit material direct to the Co-ordinating Lead Authors of the relevant chapters, or to the WGII Technical Support Unit (TSU). For advice, or to send material in electronic form, contact the TSU at [2]ipcc-wg2@metoffice.gov.uk, phone +44 (0)1392 886212. A list of WGII chapters and authors is given on the WGII web page: [3]http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html ======================== Dr Jean Palutikof Head IPCC WGII TSU Met Office, Fitzroy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1392 886212 Mobile: +44 (0) 7753 880737 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 jean.palutikof@metoffice.gov.uk Dr Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: +44 -1603 592875 Fax: +44 -1603 507784 Web: [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ [5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4036. 2005-05-31 16:22:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 31 May 2005 16:22:43 +0200 from: "Heinz Wanner" subject: Re: Fw: MBH98 to: "Keith Briffa" Dear Keith, thanks for the message. I really understand your reaction. In my opinion, we must now be very careful with our criticism. We must include this aspect in our PAGES-CLIVAR discussion next week. See you and very kind regards, Heinz 4607. 2005-06-01 12:29:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 01 Jun 2005 12:29:15 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: Re: ECHO-G solar forcing to: "Keith Briffa" Here's the response to my query about whether they'd got the solar forcing wrong in ECHO-G. It seems they're happy they got it right. Tim >Date: Tue, 31 May 2005 19:49:16 +0200 >From: Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco >Subject: Re: ECHO-G solar forcing >To: Tim Osborn >X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux i686; en-US; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 > Netscape/7.1 >X-Spam-Score: 0.6 >X-Spam-Level: / >X-Spam-Flag: NO > >Dear Tim, >dont worry I understand your motivation. >It is correct that the solar forcing is rescaled to the variance of Lean >et al. There was only one factor applied to the Crowley data and that was >the scaling for the Lean et al. >The curve that was selected for that was the BE10/lean splice in Fig2 from >Crowley 2000. >As you indicate, the solar irradiance is the input to the model which >reads solar constant values each year, not forcing. The values that are >used to force the model are those in >my web page for the model: >http://chubasco.fis.ucm.es/~fi/for_wpa01/for_wpa01.html > >you can have a look at any of the forced integrations. For innstance: >Forced run: Erik1 (a01) > >Those plots specify actually the exact values that go into the model. >Hope this is of help? let me know if you need more info. You can also >discuss it with Edu, who actually prepared the forcings... of course I >will be glad to >provide you with any info that might be of help >Sad about rumorology :-( >greetings >Fidel > >Tim Osborn wrote: >>Dear Fidel, >> >>Keith Briffa, with some input from me, is preparing a section on the >>climate of the last 2000 years for the next draft of the IPCC >>Paleoclimate chapter. >> >>We are including some model simulations and forcings from experiments of >>the last 1000 years, and would like to include the ECHO-G Erik run. >> >>We are concerned that some colleagues that we have met at various >>meetings have the impression (possibly from Mike Mann?) that you did the >>solar forcing "wrong" in this simulation - with variations that are >>unrealistically strong. >> >>I already know from the supplementary information in von Storch et al. >>(2004) that you scaled the Crowley (2000) solar irradiance history to >>have the same variance as the Lean et al. history, but the "rumours" talk >>about much bigger differences than simply this rescaling. Some have >>suggested that the conversion from solar irradiance to forcing [ >>*0.25*(1-albedo) ] was forgotten. >> >>Knowing a little about running GCMs, I don't think this can be true >>because I think you don't put this in as a radiative forcing, but instead >>just vary the solar "constant" - then there is no conversion from >>irradiance to forcing, and it can't be forgotten! >> >>But Keith has asked me to double check with you anyway! >> >>The attached file is an early draft of the figure, including panel (b) >>showing the solar forcing (converted to a forcing by *0.25*(1-albedo), >>and then smoothed with a 30 year filter). >> >>It shows very little difference between ECHO-G forcing and the >>others. Does this figure look right to you? >> >>Many thanks in advance for your checking - and sorry to question your >>capability (I just was asked to check)! >> >>Best wishes >> >>Tim >>Dr Timothy J Osborn >>Climatic Research Unit >>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >> >>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>phone: +44 1603 592089 >>fax: +44 1603 507784 >>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >>sunclock: >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > >-- >Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera >Facultad CC Fisicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid >28040 Madrid, Spain. Tel(fax): +34 91394 4468 (4635) >http://chubasco.fis.ucm.es/~fi/ Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 3564. 2005-06-01 12:45:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith Briffa" date: Wed Jun 1 12:45:01 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: IPCC AR4 model runs of last 1000 years to: Hugues Goosse Dear Hugues, Keith Briffa, with some input from me, is preparing a section on the climate of the last 2000 years for the next draft of the IPCC Paleoclimate chapter. We are including some model simulations and forcings from experiments of the last 1000 years, and have begun to produce a figure - see the attached early version (note that labelling is wrong etc. so don't use it). Is there a suitable simulation from your work with ECBILT-CLIO-VECODE that you would like to be included in this IPCC figure? I guess results from Goosse et al. (2005; GRL) or Goosse et al. (in press, QSR) would have suitable simulations in them? If the answer is yes, then I would need a single simulation. We cannot include ensemble members or multiple runs with different forcings, simply because the figure would become too complicated (I know though these ranges are important in comparing models with each other and with paleo data, but we cannot include many tens of curves and/or ranges). I would need the following information/data (see also attached table/refs): (1) Model name and reference (and, if multiple simulations are described by the reference, then some indication of what data you are sending - e.g. ensemble mean from the XX experiment). (2) Global-mean forcings, specifying separately: (a) volcanic (b) solar (c) anthropogenic forcing (GHGs, aerosols, ozone etc.) and if possible include here pre-industrial GHG forcing if you included such variations in your experiment. (3) NH-mean temperature (optionally include NH-land temperature and full global-mean temperature, in case the IPCC authors decided that some other figure panel is needed) from one simulation or an ensemble mean. I hope that you agree to contribute some data to this IPCC figure, and that this data request is not too time consuming! Best wishes Tim 650. 2005-06-01 13:32:56 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith Briffa" date: Wed Jun 1 13:32:56 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: IPCC AR4 model runs of last 1000 years to: "Pascale Braconnot" Dear Pascale, As you know, Keith Briffa (with some input from me) is preparing a section on the climate of the last 2000 years for the next draft of the IPCC Paleoclimate chapter. We are including some model simulations and forcings from experiments of the last 1000 years, and have begun to produce a figure - see the attached early version (note that labelling is wrong etc. so don't use it). Keith said I should ask you about including suitable simulations from your group in this IPCC figure. Please let me know if you would like to contribute data for this figure. If the answer is yes, then I would need a single simulation. We cannot include ensemble members or multiple runs with different forcings, simply because the figure would become too complicated (I know though these ranges are important in comparing models with each other and with paleo data, but we cannot include many tens of curves and/or ranges). I would need the following information/data (see also attached table/refs): (1) Model name and reference (and, if multiple simulations are described by the reference, then some indication of what data you are sending - e.g. ensemble mean from the XX experiment). (2) Global-mean forcings, specifying separately: (a) volcanic (b) solar (c) anthropogenic forcing (GHGs, aerosols, ozone etc.) and if possible include here pre-industrial GHG forcing if you included such variations in your experiment. (3) NH-mean temperature (optionally include NH-land temperature and full global-mean temperature, in case the IPCC authors decided that some other figure panel is needed) from one simulation or an ensemble mean. I hope that you agree to contribute some data to this IPCC figure, and that this data request is not too time consuming! Best wishes Tim 1455. 2005-06-01 14:58:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jun 1 14:58:18 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: 1114867 Science Review Request to: "Lisa Johnson" Lisa, I am away next week at a meeting in Switzerland, but will say YES to doing this provided I can send you the review on June 13. I get back the day before and will have it done whilst away. I leave on June 3 so need the ms by then. I read the page you sent with ease. Regards Phil At 14:22 01/06/2005, you wrote: Dear Dr. Jones: I am asking on behalf of Dr. Jesse Smith if you would have the time and interest to review a manuscript for SCIENCE? The paper is titled "Amplification of Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Tropical Atmosphere" from Benjamin D. Santer and colleagues. I have attached the title page and abstract to this e-mail as a pdf file. Please let me know if you have any trouble opening or printing it. We ask that the review be completed in two weeks. If you are able to review the paper, we will send it electronically. If you are not able to review the manuscript, any suggestions of other appropriate referees would be appreciated. Thank you for your time and help. Sincerely, Lisa Johnson Publications Assistant SCIENCE (202) 326-7014 ljohnson@aaas.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3894. 2005-06-01 16:47:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jun 1 16:47:13 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: This and that to: Gabi Hegerl , Tom Crowley Gabi, Tom, Hope you had a good break at the beach ! Been too engrossed (or rather besieged) by IPCC Ch 3 to have had time to send an email to Anjuli. Thought I'd better send something before I forgot again. I hope it will become clearer soon what needs to be done. Next week I get to go to a meeting in Bern and I can forget IPCC for a week ! I have to do some reviewing though - 3 papers to make sure we can refer to them in Ch 3 ! Not sure quite of the ethics on this. Christchurch is difficult to get to, when my favourite airline say flights are full on my preferred dates. I'd book something soon Gabi, as the return date is the difficult one. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2115. 2005-06-02 14:46:30 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 2 14:46:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: 3 things to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, 1. The UK Govt have agreed to pay all my visit to Boulder next year ! We can agree dates much nearer the time. Never known them respond so quickly ! 2. I'd begun to go through 3.4, so will attempt to finish that now that Brian has sent some material. 3. I got the latest data for the RSS 2LT equiv. from Carl Mears (for the globe 70S-85N - omits also a few high elev 2.5 deg squares over the Himalayas). Been quickly experimenting with this for a figure for CQ2 - as our CQs all had no figures in the ZOD. As we have these series plotted in many ways in 3.4 and 3.2, have a look at the attachment. Attempting to plot them in a different way. We've not plotted the msu this way, nor the surface with such a tight smoother. I need to do more on this (getting colour in, but I had a plot like this to hand). The histogram is the RSS data. The thinner of the two smooth lines is RSS smoothed and the thicker is HadCRUT2v (the global surface - adjusted by +0.20 to bring it to the RSS 1979-98 based period). Smoothing is Gaussian based on roughly 24 months. Probably better if I subtract 0.20 from RSS. Either way, the smooth line shows greater fluctuations in RSS than the surface, for the ENSO events and for the Pinatubo period. Won't do any more on this till I get back. Better to get to Brian's 3.4 fo rthe last day and a half. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 283. 2005-06-02 15:43:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: Kevin Trenberth date: Thu Jun 2 15:43:46 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Ch 3 - Current Status to: "Parker, David (Met Office)" , b.soden@miami.edu Brian, I can incorporate these. Currently going through your part of 3.4. You have made it shorter, but not by much - maybe a page in total ! Cheers Phil At 15:12 02/06/2005, Parker, David (Met Office) wrote: Brian Thanks. You've made it shorter: just a few comments. Page 29 lines 51-52: with satellite observations over the tropical oceans (Allan et al., 2002) although ***THE amplitude and structures OF THE VARIABILITY *** are unrealistic (Trenberth et al., 2005) Page 33: lines 11-13 and 49-50 say approximately the same thing. Page 36 lines 14-18: The changes in SW measured by ERBS Edition 3 are larger ***THAN*** the clear-sky flux changes due to humidity variations (Wong et al., 2000) or anthropogenic radiative forcing (Chapter 2).If correct, the large increase ***DECREASE???*** in reflected SW with little change in outgoing LW imply a reduction in tropical low cloud cover over this period. However, specific information on cloud radiative forcing is not available from ERBS after 1989 and, as noted in Section 3.4.3, surface datasets suggest an increase in low cloud cover over this period. The last one is the only important one! Regards David On Thu, 2005-06-02 at 12:58, Brian Soden wrote: > Here are my revisions to section 3.4 > > Phil Jones wrote: > > > > >> Dear All, > > > > Late on Friday (3rd) UK time, I'll send around the latest > > version of the Chapter. Over the last > > 10 days I've interacted with a number of you and can do a little more > > before Friday. I will > > be away June 5-10, so Kevin will take over again next week. > > I have been through the whole chapter except for sections 3.3, > > most of 3.4 (except 3.4.1) > > , 3.8 and 3.9. > > > > 3.2 just requires comments from all of you later. It is in a > > near-finished state for FOD > > submission. > > > > 3.5-3.7. All that Jim, Roxana, Panmao, Matilde have sent is in, > > and I've been through > > these 3 sections extensively over the last few days. > > > > I've also been through the Appendices and Boxes (except for the > > regional one that goes > > with 3.8). Also I'll get to the CQs. I have incorporated comments > > sent from Fatima last > > weekend. > > > > In addition to this, I've updated about 20 of the references with > > final pages. I see that Jim > > and Roxana have also begun doing this, so forward when you know. Best > > way is to send > > a quick email like David did today giving volume and page numbers of > > papers when you > > see them out. > > > > When you get the draft, can you hold off sending quick comments as > > Kevin isn't back > > till Tuesday. Emphasis needs to shift next week to 3.3 and 3.8. I'm > > expecting Brian's > > 3.4 later this week. > > > > Finally, I have two folders on my PC with > > > > 1. About 20 pdfs of papers that will not be out by Aug 12 that we > > refer to. If there are > > ones in your section that you have can you send me these? > > > > 2. All the latest versions of Figures. This is mainly 3.2 and 3.5-3.7 > > so far and one or two > > others. For 3.2 I have .eps and .png. EPS are the main requirement, > > as we can make > > easily displayable ones from this format. Getting the figures is > > more urgent that the text. > > > > Cheers > > Phil > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > University of East Anglia > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > NR4 7TJ > > UK > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > -- David E Parker A2_W052 Met Office FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK email: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 Global climate data sets are available from [1]http://hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4897. 2005-06-02 17:34:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 2 Jun 2005 17:34:19 UT from: grlonline@agu.org subject: 2005GL023212 Request to Review from Geophysical Research Letters to: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Dr. Briffa: Would you be willing to review a Comment and a Reply that have been submitted to Geophysical Research Letters? The Comment is on a published article written by McIntyre and McKitrick entitled "Hockey Sticks, Principal Components and Spurious Significance." The text of the Comment and Reply totals 7 double-spaced pages. Geophysical Research Letters seeks rapid publication of groundbreaking research that should have an immediate impact on the science community. To help meet the journal's goal for fast publication, I would like to receive your review of the Comment and Reply within 14 days. To ACCEPT the review, click on the following link: If you are unable to provide a review, I would appreciate your suggestions of potential reviewers who are qualified to evaluate the Comment and Reply. Please send these suggestions by replying to this message. To DECLINE, click on the link below: If you have any questions or need more information feel free to reply to this e-mail. Thank you for your consideration and support of Geophysical Research Letters. Sincerely, James E. Saiers Editor Geophysical Research Letters 2250. 2005-06-02 17:34:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 2 17:34:28 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: future to: Anders Moberg Anders, This sounds a bit like Tim's. UEA had to suggest subjects with someone in mind, then it was open for everyone to apply - provided they had 2-3 yrs of research money available. Ridiculous system - Tim is still in discussions with two others appointed this way in ENV with both ENV and UEA ! I'm off at the weekend for Bern. I get back on June 10 and will be at the Wymondham bus stop at 18.40 on June 12 for your arrival. I hope this is the correct time. Ruth and I are looking forward to your visit. I will try and write a few sentences whilst away on the subject of the last millennium. IPCC won't come to a conclusion on this for their 2007 report, that's for sure. There are a number of new millennial curves coming along every few months these days. I heard today that Ed Cook has a new one with Esper, Jacoby and D'Arrigo a new one. At least 4 papers that show where MM went wrong in their analyses and one that has reproduced MBH98. Keith has to summarize all this for IPCC ! In my chapter, we are expecting to finally sort out the MSU issue. I say we here, not meaning CRU, but science in general. It seems that Spencer and Christy have made mistakes and they admit them. Keep this under your hat until something comes out. This will mean that the millennium will be one of the few major issues the skeptics will still be able to have a go at. They won't like the MSU resolution, so this will likely take the most of any flak that IPCC will get. In the meantime, how has your Nature work gone down in Sweden? Going for this subject could be a double-edged sword depending who is on the committee. There are some who think it is a non-issue and some who think it is vitally important. I could write something along the lines of working towards improving the records, and removing doubts that it is warmer now than it's ever been. There is also some links to the 17-19th centuries and the early instrumental data. It's not just paleo. Keith thinks Millennium has been funded. Have you heard anything? Cheers Phil At 14:20 02/06/2005, you wrote: Phil, I would like to have your opinion about a possible research topic to be suggested to the Swedish Research Council before June 30. This is their deadline for submitting suggested topics for 6-year senior researcher positions at Swedish universities. They announce a handful of such research positions every year, and each time it is open to suggest the topics. The positions are then announced and anyone can apply for them. I guess Tim has had an equivalent postion through NERC. The topics could be in any science. For example, this year they announced positions in such disparate subjects as Combinatorics, Complex plasmas, Biochemisty and biophysics of membrane proteines, etc. I did apply myself for one called "Correlation and calibration of late-Quaternary timescales". The decision on who will get the jobs will be taken sometime this autumn. Now, the Research Council wants new subjects for the next year's announcement. I remember that you said, when you were here in Stockholm, that the question of climate variability in the last millennium will not be solved at the time of the next IPCC report. So, perhaps this could be a topic to suggest. The main reason for my interest in this is because I would like to see a position announced that I can apply for myself !! So, the idea is that will I prepare a text (with a title and short motivation) and then give this text to some leading person at the Stockholm University, who will then submit the suggestion to the Research Council. If the topic will be accepted (in competition with all fields of science), it will be announced in March next year. So - could you think of a good title of such a topic? And, moreover, could you give some short motivation for it. The motivation should be written such that it "can be read and understood by scientists in other disciplines. Motivate the aim of the subject, either for renewal or recruitment" " 1. Renewal . The research area shall be of international importance and/or rapidly growing with relatively small activity in Sweden. Indicate the most outstanding international research environments. In case Swedish environments exist, at most three of these should be mentioned. The importance for science and/or society of the Swedish research environments may be described briefly" " 2. Recruitment. The proposal shall aim at strengthening an existing Swedish research environment. Describe shortly the scientific and/or societal importance of the Swedish research environments. At most three of the Swedish research environments should be mentioned. Some of the most distinguished international environments may also be mentioned" Any idea? I realize that you cannot say too much about the Swedish research environments, but if you could think of a title and a general motivation, I would be happy if you could write some words about this back to me. Cheers, Anders Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1608. 2005-06-02 20:19:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: Ricardo Villalba , Keith Briffa , Valйrie Masson-Delmotte , Oyvind.Paasche@bjerknes.uib.no, Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen date: Thu, 2 Jun 2005 20:19:37 +0200 (MEST) from: Georg Kaser subject: Re: glacier bullet, glossary, structure to: Olga Solomina Dear Olga, I deeple apologize for haveing not read your e-mail earlier. I was so overburden with other obligations when coming back from Beijing that I gave myself the deadline of June 1 to start with IPCC work. As usual, circumstances have forced me to postpone this "dedaline" to next Monday. For this, I had not realised that Chapter 6 has its first deadline tomorrow. I have now gone through the "Glaiers during the LIA" and "Glaciers during the MWP" paragraphs as well as through the "glacier bullet" you send today. I think the LIA paragraph fits well into the Chapter 4 as a supplement to the "Observations" we concentrate on. The MWP is a bit out of focus (Observations!). As I mentioned earlier, I would be glad if chapter 6 could give glaciers approprate space as being the only climate proxies which are exclus´ively governed by physical processes and are, thus, much safer to interpret than any other proxies. The fact that they give filtered information as a mean over longer time periods enables them to represent climate. Over the last years, glaciologists have started to investigate the impact of climate seasonality on glaciers and have also started to separate thermal and hygric variables driving glaciers. All this deserves much attention also beyond the "Observations" to be coverd in Chapter 4. A comment on the bullet: this is fine. The only point I would change is the one mentioning Africa. For Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya, advances have been reconstructed from moraines aoroud 1900 and (measured) thickening took place in the 1970s. Rwenzori glaciers have advanced in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A compilation of this is attached as well as a figure and a table from an ongoing compilation of the post-LIA retreat of tropical glaciers I am working on. Please keep them confidential. Note from this figure also the exception Kilimanjaro glaciers play. They have to be seen separately from anything else we observe in the tropics mainly because of the absolute lack of movement on the Plateau (there are also other reasons which would go beyond a readable e-mail). So, to make the long story short: (i) Afrikan glaciers are no exception to the global picture and (ii) Kilimanjaro glaciers are an exception in Africa, in the Tropics, and on the global picture. Thus, Kili glaciers should not be used as an example neither for Africa nor for the tropics. Although I am highly interested in Kilimanjaro myself running a reserach project there, I strongly suggest to not overestimate its glaciers. Accoding to a request from Suasan Solomon I will address that briefly in Chapter 4.5. By the way, Kili glaciers only cover 2.6 km2 out of 2,500 km2 in the tropics (see table in attachement). Hope this is of help and if you have any further question feel free to contact me. Best wishes, Georg Georg Kaser ------------------------------------------------- Institut fuer Geographie Innrain 52 A-6020 INNSBRUCK Tel: ++43 512 507 5407 Fax: ++43 512 507 2895 http://meteo9.uibk.ac.at/IceClim/CRYO/cryo_a.html On Thu, 2 Jun 2005, Olga Solomina wrote: > Dear colleagues, > > Please find attached my suggestions for the "Glacier bullet" (chapter 6). It > accumulates (and replaces) all "glacier cases" mentioned in different places > in our preliminary draft. > > I find that our first subdivision of the chapter to 2ka, 10ka etc. was more > natural rather than 6ka etc. - now we have a mixture of two systems. > > My suggestions for the glossary are: > > The Holocene (including Early, Mid, Late with approximate dates) > Little Ice Age > Neoglacial > > I also attach two paragraphs that I wrote for the Ch4 for the recent glacier > variations, though it is still unclear where it should be. I think both the > glacier recession from the LIA maximum positions and glacier advances > occurred during the MWP should be mentioned somewhere. > > Cheers, > olga > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\KASER-1999GPCh.PDF" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\TropGlac.doc" 1944. 2005-06-03 15:15:47 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jun 3 15:15:47 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: 1816 tropical SSTs to: "Rob Wilson" Rob, I seem to have gotten the coral paper anyway ! I'll have a look at it as I'm away next week. When I was including coral in the 1998 paper it was length we were looking for rather than numbers. There are more now. Correlations with SST can be difficult because of the quality of the SST data for some regions for some periods. I tended to go for a reasonable size box where the coral's from, to avoid basing it on a single box. The GBR stuff from Janice Lough was the best, but then that was several corals anyway. We had trouble getting the Galapagos to correlate. Cheers Phil At 09:22 03/06/2005, you wrote: Morning Phil, no the Nature paper is a TR based NH extra-tropical temperature reconstruction that I wrote with Rosanne D'Arrigo. Essentially a substantial update (1250 years in length) to the original Jacoby and D'Arrigo work. The coral paper is a different beast. I am leaning towards JGR for submission as I don't think it has the restrictive word length of GRL. I can send you the last draft of the coral paper if you like, although I hope to tighten it in the next week or so. For the coral reconstruction, I did not include the New Caledonia data. I set up a fairly stringent screening procedure for the coral data - i.e. only those series that correlated significantly with local annual SSTs using both unfiltered and 1st differenced time-series were used for later analysis. The new Caledonia data did not pass this test. This is, in fact, a problem with many of the coral data-sets - the long term trends in these data might be related to salinity changes rather than SST. However, due to strong linear trends, there is often a reasonable correlation with local SST using unfiltered series, which is purely an artefact of trend. Hence my use of 1st difference transforms to identify a 'pure' temperature signal. The new Caledonia data did not correlate significant with local SSTs at these high frequencies - hence, using my empirical approach, I could not rationalise the record to be a true temperature proxy. Although a strict interpretation of the new Caledonia O18 record as a temperature proxy would indicate cooler conditions around the 1810-1820 period, I do not think such an interpretation is entirely correct. Also, through this period, the lowest index value is 1814, not 1816. 1885 is an inferred cool year which could tie in nicely with Krakatoa however. It is also interesting to note that many of the coral records utilised by Mike Mann also failed my screening procedure. The attached figure shows normalised series of the 5 coral records that go back to 1801 in my 'SST sensitive' data-set. The y-axis has been inverted as the series are negatively correlated to SSTs. Only one record (MAL = Malindi: western Indian Ocean - Julia Cole) shows an inferred cool year in 1816. As I state in the paper - lots of potential for corals, but there is simply not enough data prior to 1850 to derive particularly robust reconstructions. just say if you want a copy of the paper hope this helps best regards Rob ----- Original Message ----- From: [1]Phil Jones To: [2]Rob Wilson Sent: Thursday, June 02, 2005 3:48 PM Subject: Re: 1816 tropical SSTs Rob, Nice diagram ! Is this in the Nature submission you were talking to Keith about this morning. I'd put more faith in the few corals at this time the ships. I think corals have juvenile problems like trees. Is any of Crowley's corals from the New Caledonia region in the coral set. Tom makes a big thing of their cooling in the 1810s. Cheers Phil At 15:11 02/06/2005, you wrote: Dear Michael, Last week, from a BBC Timewatch documentary, I was very interested to learn about your research on historical temperatures in the year after the Tambora eruption. Phil Jones sent me your e-mail address so I could contact you. I am working with Keith Briffa and have been using coral isotopic records to reconstruct annual tropical SSTs for the last few centuries. A paper will be submitted on this work in the next few weeks. One of the observations that our reconstruction shows is that tropical SSTs were not particularly anomalous around 1816 - see attached figure. We are wondering if your results agree or disagree with our observation. Unfortunately, there are only a few coral records that go back to the early 19th century, so the fact that we do not identify cool SSTs in 1816 might reflect the spatial bias in our coral record network. However, teak tree-ring chronologies from Indonesia also do not show anomalous growth departures for this period. Do you per chance have any spatial maps of SSTs for this year? I would also be interested in any articles you have written (or that are in preparation) with regards to 1816. I hope you can help best regards Rob ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Rob Wilson Honorary Research Fellow School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Scotland, U.K. Tel: 0131 620 1141 Publication PDFs: [3]http://www.robdendro.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/publications.html ".....I have wondered about trees. They are sensitive to light, to moisture, to wind, to pressure. Sensitivity implies sensation. Might a man feel into the soul of a tree for these sensations? If a tree were capable of awareness, this faculty might prove useful. " "The Miracle Workers" by Jack Vance ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4593. 2005-06-03 16:05:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jun 3 16:05:00 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: IPCC WG1 AR4 to: "Say, Nick (GA)" Nick, Thanks for the very quick and positive response. I need to firm up on dates with my co-CLA, so will provide you with an estimate in due course. I'll likely do this when you ask for costs for the 3rd LA meeting in NZ in December. Cheers Phil At 10:30 02/06/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, David Warrilow has agreed to support your visit to the NCAR in Boulder, CO. Please can you provide me with an estimate of your T & S expenditure. Many thanks, Nick Say Global Atmosphere Division, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Zone 3/A2, Ashdown House, 123 Victoria Street, London SW1E 6DE GTN: 3544 8161 Tel.: (0207) 082 8161 Fax: (0207) 082 8151 Email: Nick.Say@defra.gsi.gov.uk > Help save paper - do you need to print this e-mail? -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 26 May 2005 11:28 To: Oliver, Sophia (GA) Subject: IPCC WG1 AR4 Dear Sophia, As you know I'm one of the CLAs for Ch3 on Observations for the WGI AR4. At the moment I'm trying to co-ordinate the writing of the First Order Draft by August 12. Our 3rd Lead Authors Meeting will be NZ in December, so you'll be in touch with us all about that in due course. At this I'd like you to consider an additional piece of expenditure. This would be a visit by me to my co-CLA (Kevin Trenberth who's at NCAR in Boulder, Co). We are thinking a meeting of a week or two would help immensely to the writing of the second order draft. The best time for this would be after the NZ meeting - early Feb or late Jan 2006. This would just be for the two of us, not a special chapter meeting. Can you discuss this with the appropriate people at DEFRA? There is no rush as the date is a long way off. Best Regards Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes. The original of this email was scanned for viruses by the Government Secure Intranet (GSi) virus scanning service supplied exclusively by Energis in partnership with MessageLabs. On leaving the GSi this email was certified virus-free Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1753. 2005-06-03 16:52:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: Kevin Trenberth , Brian Soden , David Parker date: Fri Jun 3 16:52:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Fu Tropospheric Trends] to: "David Easterling" Dave, That could be what we want to show. Only 2 shades of red/blue are evident on the 79-03 sfc plot - the scale being determined by the seasonal plots. Phil At 16:27 03/06/2005, David Easterling wrote: Phil, Using the 1979-2003 sfc temp plotting scheme with the Fu data would result in only two shades of red and two of blue since the sfc temp range is about -1.5 to +1.5 and the Fu range is only -0.4 to +0.5 C/decade, unless this is what you want to show. Dave Phil Jones wrote: Dave, The one thing I would change with this is to use the same scale we used for the 1979-2003 Annual surface trends, so they can be easily compared. I think this is what we agreed in the exchanges Dennis last week. The white and grey are fine and the rivers have gone ! Cheers Phil At 19:37 02/06/2005, David Easterling wrote: Take a look at the latest map for the Fu data. -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Fu Tropospheric Trends Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 14:21:47 -0400 From: Byron Gleason [1] To: David Easterling [2] Dave, Attached is the Tropospheric Trends map by Fu et al. (2004). Minor lakes and rivers have been eliminated. National boundaries have been made gray. Small trends near 0.0 have been made white. I don't know if these grids that I have been plotting are "pixel" or "grid" registered ... this only makes a small difference in plotting by say half a grid box. This can be double checked in the future, and is probably not that critical. - Byron -- David R. Easterling, Ph.D. Chief, Scientific Services Division NOAA's National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 USA V: 828-271-4675 F: 828-271-4328 [3]David.Easterling@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- David R. Easterling, Ph.D. Chief, Scientific Services Division NOAA's National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 USA V: 828-271-4675 F: 828-271-4328 [5]David.Easterling@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3305. 2005-06-06 10:25:15 ______________________________________________________ cc: jto@u.arizona.edu,eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no date: Mon, 6 Jun 2005 10:25:15 -0300 (ART) from: ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar subject: Re: Southern Hemisphere + Modes of variability to: "Keith Briffa" Dear Keith, Peck and Eystein, Please, find attached a new draft from section 6.5.4. Modes of climate variability and regional climate extremes over the last 2000 years. I am still working on the text. However, I have included at the end of the text a Figure from D’Arrigo et al (2005) paper on ENSO variability over the past six centuries, GRL 32. Please take a look to the figure. It summarizes much of our present knowledge of ENSO variability from proxies and models in the past centuries. If we have room for one more figure in the Chapter, I would ask Rosanne to send me the data to generate a new version of this figure. Cheers, Ricardo k.briffa@uea.ac.uk jto@u.arizona.edu eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no > Ricardo > just to confirm my feeling that the S.H. section should be very brief as > regards text (but incorporated definitely in 2000 year section) , and > possibly have Figure incorporated as part of "Regional Changes" section - > at present unclear where this goes - probably eventually better as part of > 2000 year section also. I am expecting you (with Ed ) to rewrite the SH > section, Large scale drought and regional section , with prescribed > length > restrictions. > Keith > > At 14:32 03/06/2005, ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar wrote: >>Dear Keith, Peck and Eystein >> As we agreed in Beijing, I am sending for your consideration a >> figure >>with the most relevant information on high-resolution records in the >>Southern Hemisphere since TAR. The figure includes the New Zealand >>(Oroco Swamp) and Tasmania (updated 2000) reconstructions by Ed Cook, and >>our new temperature reconstructions for northern and southern Patagonia >>(2003). I am working on a pair of short paragraphs highlighting the most >>important features in these reconstructions. >>As we also agreed, I am reviewing all the ENSO+NAO+AO+AAO in the ZOD to >>avoid repetitions and dispersion of this information across the Chapter. >>In the Beijing meeting I got the impression that this information would >>show up at the end of the section on The last 2000 years, but in the new >>outline from Peck and Eystein I saw that my all section (6.5.4) on Modes >>of variability still is there. However I note, that they also have >>included in section 6.5.4 Regional climate extremes over the last 2000 >>years. Do you have in mind how to proceed with the regional extreme >>events? >>Best regards, >>Ricardo > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Modes of variability-draft3.doc" 844. 2005-06-07 10:46:06 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 07 Jun 2005 10:46:06 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: Re: IPCC AR4 to: "Keith Briffa" >Reply-To: "Rob Wilson" >From: "Rob Wilson" >To: "Tim Osborn" >Subject: Re: IPCC AR4 >Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2005 10:36:45 +0100 >X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.2527 >X-OriginalArrivalTime: 07 Jun 2005 09:37:38.0421 (UTC) >FILETIME=[8B049A50:01C56B44] >X-Spam-Score: 0.1 >X-Spam-Level: / >X-Spam-Flag: NO > >Morning Tim, >Indeed, the data I sent you were the time-series generated from the simple >regression calibration >However, the data in Figure 3B are scaled time series. I mentioned it in >the caption of that figure. > >Essentially I used the regression based calibration to undertaken >verification and generate the error bars. >Although verification could be made using scaled series, I could not >generate error bars with scaling. > >So which version to use? I think the scaled one likely would better >portray a better estimate of temperature amplitude. >However, this is really only a gut feeling and has certainly not been tested. > >I have essentially used the same methodology for the coral paper and >Philip Brohan is generating a pseudo-proxy data-set with which I can test >regression vs. scaling procedures. This might become a part II paper, >depending on the results. > >re. my Figure 4 - I scaled all recons and models as I felt it was the >better method of comparison. I am not sure if others would agree, but as >the models show higher variance than the instrumental data and most recons >lower, I need to scale them all so I was comparing apples with apples with >regards to past temperature amplitude change. > >Hope this clarifies everything >Rob > >PS. between you and me, I don't think our new NH recon really adds >anything new expect perhaps the fact that we should not put too much >confidence in these recons prior to 1100 or so. After seeing Ulrich >Cubasch's talk on the 32 flavours of climate, I think the whole >methodology is up in the air as well. Do you know if he has drafted a >paper on this work yet? > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Tim Osborn >To: Rob Wilson >Sent: Tuesday, June 07, 2005 10:07 AM >Subject: Re: IPCC AR4 > >Hi Rob, > >I haven't been able to reproduce figure 3B in your paper then. This is >labelled as anomalies wrt 1961-1990 and thus if I plot the data you sent >for "RCS recon" "unfilter calib" I expected to reproduce it. In 3B there >are numberous positive RCS values in the 20th century, yet only a handful >in excel file you sent. > >I'm wondering whether this is because you calibrated the reconstructions >using regression against instrumental temperatures - and that is the data >you sent - but then you scaled to match the instrumental mean and variance >- and that is the data in 3B. Is this right? If so, I'd need to know your >view on which you would prefer to be presented in the IPCC figure - >presumably you prefer the scaled version, since that's what you show in the >figures of the paper. But you also scale all the others for comparison >(figure 4A), whereas we've decided with discussion from the other chapter >authors to stick with original calibrations. So please let me know if I'm >right about reasons why I can't reproduce your figure 3B and if so which >version you and Rosanne prefer to show. > >I'm also a little unclear why you would regress and then rescale, since the >latter would yield the same results as rescaling the original series >wouldn't it? Or was it a multiple regression? Sorry, I've only read your >paper once and didn't pick up on this yet! Still, this is more a >scientific issue and the question about the IPCC figure is the more important. > >Cheers > >Tim > >PS. Will get comments to you about the coral work very soon! > > > > > > >At 20:54 06/06/2005, you wrote: > >Hi Tim, > >they are anomalies relative to the 1961-1990 mean, although remember > >calibration was made over the 1856-1978 period. Therefore, the 1961-1990 > >mean of the reconstructed series will likely not be zero - in fact due to > >the divergence, the are slightly lower. > > > >regards > >Rob > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: <Tim>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>Tim Osborn > >To: > <Rob>mailto:rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>Rob > Wilson > >Cc: > <K.briffa@uea.ac.uk>mailto:K.briffa@uea.ac.uk>K.briffa@uea.ac.uk > >Sent: Monday, June 06, 2005 3:43 PM > >Subject: Re: IPCC AR4 > > > >Hi Rob - thanks very much for the data. One question - I'm using the > >unfiltered RCS calibated data - what are they anomalies from? The > >1961-1990 mean, or the calibration period mean? Cheers, Tim > > > >At 08:32 04/06/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: > > >Hi Tim and Keith, > > >I have attached the two NH reconstructions we have developed (STD and RCS > > >versions). > > > > > >I am also sending the original paper to give you more information if need > > >be. Unfortunately, and not surprisingly I guess, we heard yesterday that > > >it was rejected from Nature. We are currently editing for submission to > > >another Journal next week - under debate as to which. > > > > > >2 sigma error bars are provided for both the unfiltered reconstruction and > > >the 20 yr spline version (i.e. see Figures 2a and 2b in the supplementary > > >material). > > > > > >Please Note: The smoothed error bars were generated only as a guide for > > >the confidence of the lower frequency signal - I re-did the calibration > > >using smoothed series for each nested model. The resulting smoothed > > >reconstruction therefore does not overlay perfectly upon the unfiltered > > >reconstruction. In all analyses in the paper, I used the unfiltered > > >reconstructions or low pass filtered versions of them. > > > > > >if you have any questions please feel free to e-mail or phone. > > >regards > > >Rob > > > > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > > >From: > > > <<Rosanne>mailto:druidrd@ldeo.columbia.edu>Rosanne>mailto:druidrd@ldeo.columbia.edu>Rosanne>mailto:druidrd@ldeo.columbia.edu>Rosanne > > > D'Arrigo > > >To: > <<Tim>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>Tim>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>Tim>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>Tim > Osborn > > >Cc: > > > <<rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>mailto:rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>mailto:rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>mailto:rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk > > >Sent: Friday, June 03, 2005 2:44 PM > > >Subject: Re: IPCC AR4 > > > > > >hi Tim, > > > > > >Greetings. its is fine with me to show figures from our nh paper, which > > >we are submitting shortly. I am ccing to Rob Wilson who can send you the > > >data for the figures. > > > > > >cheers, > > >Rosanne > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Dear Rosanne, > > > > > > > >As you probably know, Keith Briffa has the job of putting together > > > >the section on the climate of the last 2000 years for the next draft > > > >of the IPCC Paleoclimate chapter. I'm helping out with some > > > >comments and figures - in particular, I am preparing a diagram > > > >showing various TAR and post-TAR reconstructions of NH temperature. > > > > > > > >I contacted Ed Cook to get the updated calibration of the Esper et > > > >al. reconstruction, which he provided. But Ed also suggested that I > > > >contact you because you have a new tree-ring based NH temperature > > > >series in the pipeline. > > > > > > > >I'm not sure what stage it's at, but if it's appropriate would you > > > >be willing to have it included in an IPCC comparison diagram? To be > > > >included, a paper describing it would need to have been accepted for > > > >publication by December. > > > > > > > >Please let me know what you would like me to do: include it or not? > > > > > > > >If yes, then the data that I'd need are: > > > >(1) the calibrated NH temperature reconstruction (plus an indication > > > >of the reference period) > > > >(2) uncertainty ranges for the calibrated series, if you have them, > > > >at an appropriate time scale (e.g. for 30 year smoothed data) > > > > > > > >Best regards > > > > > > > >Tim > > > >Dr Timothy J Osborn > > > >Climatic Research Unit > > > >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > > > >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > > > > > > >e-mail: > > > <<t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > > > >phone: +44 1603 592089 > > > >fax: +44 1603 507784 > > > >web: > > > <<http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > > > >sunclock: > > > > > > <<http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > > > > > > > > > > > >Dr Timothy J Osborn > >Climatic Research Unit > >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > > >e-mail: > <t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk>t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > >phone: +44 1603 592089 > >fax: +44 1603 507784 > >web: > <http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > >sunclock: > ><http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~t > imo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 1214. 2005-06-08 08:57:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jun 8 08:57:43 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: Von Storch et al critique of MBH (fwd) to: "Keith Briffa" Apparently we owe Mike Mann an apology! B*ll*cks to that! Tim Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2005 18:08:14 -0700 (PDT) From: "David M. Ritson" To: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Subject: Von Storch et al critique of MBH (fwd) Dear Tim, I pursued the question as to whether MBH does or does not constrain/force their proxy results into agreement with the observational data for 1902-1982 with Mike Mann. The answer is indeed that they calibrate by forcing this agreeement. In more detail Their basic assumption was that the `growth', X_ij for proxy i and year j was given by X_ij=SUM_m(S_mi*A_mj)+e_ij where, A_mj is the amplitude of mth EOF for year j, and S_mi is the `sensitivity' of proxy i to EOF m, and the e_ij are the associated random noise. The m EOFs are determined from the observed temperature anomaly data for 1902-1981. The sensitivity factors, S_mi are determined to best fit the 1902-1981 proxy data to the observed data. Given the S_mi, they can reconstruct the best-fit A_mj from their X_ij. Therefore, by `definition' their reconstructed signal for 1902-1981 must, within errors, agree with the original experimental temperature anomaly signal. The MBH results do indeed agree within errors with the 1902-1981 observational temperatures. Von Storch et al in their Science letter (supported by your perspective) in their Figure 2A show simulation results for 1902-1981 that qualitively very `strongly diverge from the `observed' data for 1902-1981 as a function of added white noise. One can only conclude that VS04 did not follow the MBH calbration procedures. Enclosed is some correspondance with Hans relative to this. Frankly I think Hans, and you guys, owe Mike an apology on this point? Below, unfortunately (apologies) in order of present backwards in time, is some relevant correspondance with Hans. Cheers Dave ================================Correspondance======================= ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 06 Jun 2005 22:56:01 +0200 From: Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de To: David M. Ritson Cc: Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de, fidelgr@fis.ucm.es, Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, Julie.Jones@gkss.de Subject: Re: VS04 (fwd) Dave, I am impressed by your certainty, but I suggest that you just wait for our paper. I am actually not that stupid as you indicate. At least, I believe so. The statement "Fundamentally whenever you scale units, cm to km, ozs to kg, deg F to deg C, etc, you are "regressing a trend on a trend"." may be a bit too simple. In the meantime, I propose that you write a comment on our paper so that we can discuss that publicly - since you seem to know so well what this is about. By the way, it was MY answer not our groups' answer. All the best, Hans From:"David M. Ritson" Sent:06.06.2005 22:27 To: Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de Dear Hans et al, Thanks for your reply which clarifies your group's position. Fundamentally whenever you scale units, cm to km, ozs to kg, deg F to deg C, etc, you are "regressing a trend on a trend". MBH, in terms of your simplified model, use a thermometric scale based on the tree-ring sizes, and then, entirely correctly, they calibrate the proxy temperature scale relative to the observational absolute temperatures from 1902 to 1981. This is exactly what students do in elementary lab classes when they fabricate thermometers, do an experiment and finally calibrate their fabricated thermometers against a calibrated thermometer. Your group according to your e-mail, omitted the calibration step. Under such circumstances results are necessarily meaningless. I feel embarassed to be going into such elementary considerations with you of all people. From a formal statistical point of view when you regress a gradient against a gradient intrinsic errors from a single measurement are indeterminate, ie you are dividing zero chisquared by zero degrees of freedom. Of course extrinsic errors exist and are readily found from an ensemble of measurements, and/or from the errors associated with the procedure used. In actuality MBH98 used a more sophisticated procedure. They had eighty annual measurements they regressed against, and as outlined in my previous e-mails they calibrated sensitivity factors to a few leading EOFs derived from the observational data. This of course does not change the gut argument. MBH98 calibrated their proxy temperature scale, and according to your communication your group omitted this step in your simulation of MBH procedures. I certainly feel, in view of the scientific and media attention to your letter, that it is essential that this omission be fully clarified to the scientific community and that such a clarification would be most meaningful if it came directly from you people. Sincerely Dave On Sun, 5 Jun 2005 Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de wrote: > David, > > we had something prepared for this question for another comment we got on > our science paper. This comment was eventually no accepted for pu > blication, and we will have now all this in a separate publication of our > own. This is work in progress and we will make this available as soon as > we are done. You know that Mann had withdrawn his comment on our article > recently - after he had told journalists long ago that it was already in > press. > > The answer in a nutshell is: Thou shalt not regress a trend on a trend. > Or, in other words - a stats model based on 1 dgf can not be statistically > be justified (but maybe physically). A fundamental and most meaningful > principle of statistics. > Cheers > Hans > 483. 2005-06-08 09:00:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: ricardo date: Wed Jun 8 09:00:32 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: submitted from ZhangD to: "=?GB2312?Q?=D5=C5=B5=C2=B6=FE?=" thanks Zhang Ricardo , have you contacted Ed re drought large -scale stuff, and contribution to SH text? Keith At 02:49 08/06/2005, =?GB2312?Q?=D5=C5=B5=C2=B6=FE?= wrote: Keith and Ricardo: attachment is my writing submitted to section 6.5.4, I have sent it to Peck on 2 Jun. Perhaps it was lost. Best wish Zhang De'er ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡derzhang@cma.gov.cn ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡2005-06-08 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2968. 2005-06-10 17:20:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 10 Jun 2005 17:20:10 -0400 from: Gabi Hegerl subject: Re: request for data for IPCC AR4 figures to: Tim Osborn Tim, I append the all forcings run with sensitivity 2.5, a mid-range aerosol forcing (-1.5 NH 30-90N mean), and a mid-range ocean heat uptake. Tom uses the old Mitchell et al97 direct aerosol forcing timeseries, contact us if you need to know more. He promised to send his volcano forcing. He also said he'd send the reconstruction (its actually 3, a short densely sampled one, and two longer less densely sampled ones stacked into one another). The errobars are for decadal data, if you want I can make you 30-yr errorbars (not magic but takes a bit). I also hope Tom remembers if he got the 90% or 95% errorbars stored! The paper sigh is just being reformatted for another journal, but no major changes. THe GRL paper is still an ok reference for the runs, although the best reference is the sensitivity estimate paper that is also being reformatted to another journal - I can send it to you as soon as we get there. Hope this helps, let me know what else is needed (sorry need to run now so no time for checkign) Gabi Tim Osborn wrote: > At 14:58 10/06/2005, you wrote: > >> Its actually my fault, I woke up this morning remembering that I >> STILL didn't send you these data. >> I think you need the new timeseries, and I'll let you know the >> anomalies. > > > Thanks. Have you heard anything back from the journal yet? > >> I also promised the >> simulation - all forcings. > > > What is the reference for this (presumably new) model run - is it the > same as your submitted paper describing the new reconstruction? > >> Is this afternoon ok? >> Totally ok to say you need it right now (I'd prefer >> to do something else first that needs to go out, but I can change plan) > > > Please don't change your plans! Just send it as soon as you have a > spare moment (I realise - having no spare moments of my own - that > this might mean never! but of course I don't really mean that!). > >> There is some difference in the volcanic forcing, but I THINK (TOM??) >> not in the others. >> Tom would need to send the new volcanic forcing (used for the >> megaensemble Tom). > > > Ok. I have the solar which sounds like it is unchanged. Tom will > hopefully send the revised volcanic. The figure also has a panel "all > other forcings", which I don't have for your simulations - hence that > would be good too. I don't mind adding them up if you have separate > time series for GHG, SO4, etc. > >> Promise will happen today, I am sorry for being slack on this (I bet >> you know the reason ;) > > > You haven't been slack at all - it's my responsibility to get the > figure done. > > Thanks for your help > > Tim > > > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html 1000 -0.0054 1001 -0.0084 1002 -0.0098 1003 -0.0645 1004 -0.0887 1005 -0.0644 1006 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1861 0.0326 1862 0.0154 1863 0.0237 1864 0.0363 1865 0.0477 1866 0.0563 1867 0.0438 1868 0.0409 1869 0.0555 1870 0.0668 1871 0.0759 1872 0.0824 1873 0.0872 1874 0.0914 1875 0.0945 1876 0.0979 1877 0.1009 1878 0.1031 1879 0.1059 1880 0.1081 1881 0.1062 1882 0.1080 1883 0.0938 1884 -0.1750 1885 -0.1728 1886 -0.0932 1887 -0.0253 1888 0.0228 1889 0.0497 1890 0.0689 1891 0.0831 1892 0.0937 1893 0.1026 1894 0.1107 1895 0.1170 1896 0.1222 1897 0.1271 1898 0.1322 1899 0.1368 1900 0.1422 1901 0.1483 1902 0.1540 1903 0.0940 1904 0.0914 1905 0.1187 1906 0.1429 1907 0.1470 1908 0.1425 1909 0.1620 1910 0.1795 1911 0.1936 1912 0.1691 1913 0.0091 1914 0.0540 1915 0.1199 1916 0.1567 1917 0.1813 1918 0.2045 1919 0.2217 1920 0.2351 1921 0.2458 1922 0.2551 1923 0.2631 1924 0.2469 1925 0.2373 1926 0.2553 1927 0.2711 1928 0.2851 1929 0.2971 1930 0.3072 1931 0.3169 1932 0.3270 1933 0.3363 1934 0.3448 1935 0.3521 1936 0.3588 1937 0.3598 1938 0.3590 1939 0.3651 1940 0.3731 1941 0.3802 1942 0.3865 1943 0.3711 1944 0.3652 1945 0.3758 1946 0.3841 1947 0.3912 1948 0.3945 1949 0.3957 1950 0.3972 1951 0.3967 1952 0.3849 1953 0.3914 1954 0.3986 1955 0.4038 1956 0.4076 1957 0.4117 1958 0.4157 1959 0.4193 1960 0.4167 1961 0.4068 1962 0.4054 1963 0.3931 1964 0.3433 1965 0.3077 1966 0.3147 1967 0.3390 1968 0.3385 1969 0.3169 1970 0.3453 1971 0.3864 1972 0.4180 1973 0.4331 1974 0.4388 1975 0.4152 1976 0.4381 1977 0.4821 1978 0.5187 1979 0.5433 1980 0.5751 1981 0.5993 1982 0.5528 1983 0.3952 1984 0.4441 1985 0.5260 1986 0.5756 1987 0.6154 1988 0.6612 1989 0.7037 1990 0.7357 1991 0.7296 1992 0.5345 1993 0.5596 1994 0.6365 1995 0.6964 1996 0.7457 1997 0.7917 1998 0.8404 1999 0.8869 2000 0.9286 2001 0.9635 2312. 2005-06-13 09:26:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 09:26:18 -0400 (EDT) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: request for data for IPCC AR4 figures to: Tim Osborn MOrning TIm, Uuups, its NH 30-90N as far as I remember. What do you want - no problem makeing something different! Also, what aerosols would you like? If you have no preference, I'll use my "standard" reasonable fit values with 2.5 sensitivity. Gabi On Mon, 13 Jun 2005, Tim Osborn wrote: > Thanks for the model simulated temperatures, Gabi. Could I just check > exactly what it is, because it seems to warm a little more than I was > expecting. > > Is it the full NH land & marine, annual-mean temperature. This is what I want. > > Or is it 30-90N mean or something else? > > Cheers > > Tim > > At 22:20 10/06/2005, you wrote: > >Tim, > > > >I append the all forcings run with sensitivity 2.5, a mid-range aerosol > >forcing (-1.5 NH 30-90N mean), > >and a mid-range ocean heat uptake. > >Tom uses the old Mitchell et al97 direct aerosol forcing timeseries, > >contact us if you need to know more. > >He promised to send his volcano forcing. > >He also said he'd send the reconstruction (its actually 3, a short densely > >sampled one, and two longer > >less densely sampled ones stacked into one another). The errobars are for > >decadal data, if you want I > >can make you 30-yr errorbars (not magic but takes a bit). > >I also hope Tom remembers if he got the 90% or 95% errorbars stored! > > > >The paper sigh is just being reformatted for another journal, but no major > >changes. > >THe GRL paper is still an ok reference for the runs, although the best > >reference is the sensitivity estimate > >paper that is also being reformatted to another journal - I can send it to > >you as soon as we get there. > > > >Hope this helps, let me know what else is needed (sorry need to run now so > >no time for checkign) > > > >Gabi > > > > > > > >Tim Osborn wrote: > > > >>At 14:58 10/06/2005, you wrote: > >> > >>>Its actually my fault, I woke up this morning remembering that I STILL > >>>didn't send you these data. > >>>I think you need the new timeseries, and I'll let you know the anomalies. > >> > >> > >>Thanks. Have you heard anything back from the journal yet? > >> > >>> I also promised the > >>>simulation - all forcings. > >> > >> > >>What is the reference for this (presumably new) model run - is it the > >>same as your submitted paper describing the new reconstruction? > >> > >>> Is this afternoon ok? > >>> Totally ok to say you need it right now (I'd prefer > >>>to do something else first that needs to go out, but I can change plan) > >> > >> > >>Please don't change your plans! Just send it as soon as you have a spare > >>moment (I realise - having no spare moments of my own - that this might > >>mean never! but of course I don't really mean that!). > >> > >>>There is some difference in the volcanic forcing, but I THINK (TOM??) > >>>not in the others. > >>>Tom would need to send the new volcanic forcing (used for the > >>>megaensemble Tom). > >> > >> > >>Ok. I have the solar which sounds like it is unchanged. Tom will > >>hopefully send the revised volcanic. The figure also has a panel "all > >>other forcings", which I don't have for your simulations - hence that > >>would be good too. I don't mind adding them up if you have separate time > >>series for GHG, SO4, etc. > >> > >>>Promise will happen today, I am sorry for being slack on this (I bet you > >>>know the reason ;) > >> > >> > >>You haven't been slack at all - it's my responsibility to get the figure > >>done. > >> > >>Thanks for your help > >> > >>Tim > >> > >> > >> > >>Dr Timothy J Osborn > >>Climatic Research Unit > >>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > >>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >> > >>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > >>phone: +44 1603 592089 > >>fax: +44 1603 507784 > >>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > >>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > > >-- > >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > >Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for > >the Environment and Earth Sciences, > >Box 90227 > >Duke University, Durham NC 27708 > >Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 > >email: hegerl@duke.edu, http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html > > > > > > > > 1000 -0.0054 > > 1001 -0.0084 > > 1002 -0.0098 > > 1003 -0.0645 > > 1004 -0.0887 > > 1005 -0.0644 > > 1006 -0.0443 > > 1007 -0.0476 > > 1008 -0.0479 > > 1009 -0.0347 > > 1010 -0.0252 > > 1011 -0.0200 > > 1012 -0.0188 > > 1013 -0.0197 > > 1014 -0.0216 > > 1015 -0.0243 > > 1016 -0.0276 > > 1017 -0.0313 > > 1018 -0.0694 > > 1019 -0.0890 > > 1020 -0.0777 > > 1021 -0.0679 > > 1022 -0.0608 > > 1023 -0.0580 > > 1024 -0.1009 > > 1025 -0.1203 > > 1026 -0.1004 > > 1027 -0.0844 > > 1028 -0.0728 > > 1029 -0.0673 > > 1030 -0.0646 > > 1031 -0.0635 > > 1032 -0.0632 > > 1033 -0.0637 > > 1034 -0.0648 > > 1035 -0.0659 > > 1036 -0.0670 > > 1037 -0.0682 > > 1038 -0.0694 > > 1039 -0.0707 > > 1040 -0.0718 > > 1041 -0.0722 > > 1042 -0.0720 > > 1043 -0.0714 > > 1044 -0.0705 > > 1045 -0.0694 > > 1046 -0.0682 > > 1047 -0.0669 > > 1048 -0.0655 > > 1049 -0.0640 > > 1050 -0.0627 > > 1051 -0.0616 > > 1052 -0.0607 > > 1053 -0.0599 > > 1054 -0.0591 > > 1055 -0.0584 > > 1056 -0.0577 > > 1057 -0.0571 > > 1058 -0.0564 > > 1059 -0.0558 > > 1060 -0.0553 > > 1061 -0.0549 > > 1062 -0.0858 > > 1063 -0.0997 > > 1064 -0.0856 > > 1065 -0.0742 > > 1066 -0.0907 > > 1067 -0.0980 > > 1068 -0.0848 > > 1069 -0.0745 > > 1070 -0.0669 > > 1071 -0.0622 > > 1072 -0.0586 > > 1073 -0.0556 > > 1074 -0.0527 > > 1075 -0.0500 > > 1076 -0.0478 > > 1077 -0.0464 > > 1078 -0.0444 > > 1079 -0.0421 > > 1080 -0.0398 > > 1081 -0.0376 > > 1082 -0.0356 > > 1083 -0.0519 > > 1084 -0.0580 > > 1085 -0.0476 > > 1086 -0.0388 > > 1087 -0.0317 > > 1088 -0.0266 > > 1089 -0.0218 > > 1090 -0.0182 > > 1091 -0.0365 > > 1092 -0.0437 > > 1093 -0.0322 > > 1094 -0.0227 > > 1095 -0.0154 > > 1096 -0.0110 > > 1097 -0.0081 > > 1098 -0.0057 > > 1099 -0.0036 > > 1100 -0.0279 > > 1101 -0.0365 > > 1102 -0.0212 > > 1103 -0.0091 > > 1104 -0.0001 > > 1105 0.0049 > > 1106 0.0083 > > 1107 0.0108 > > 1108 0.0129 > > 1109 0.0148 > > 1110 0.0161 > > 1111 0.0166 > > 1112 0.0166 > > 1113 0.0163 > > 1114 0.0157 > > 1115 0.0149 > > 1116 -0.0076 > > 1117 -0.0347 > > 1118 -0.0369 > > 1119 -0.0320 > > 1120 -0.0248 > > 1121 -0.0187 > > 1122 -0.0138 > > 1123 -0.0098 > > 1124 -0.0065 > > 1125 -0.0037 > > 1126 -0.0013 > > 1127 0.0008 > > 1128 0.0027 > > 1129 0.0045 > > 1130 0.0067 > > 1131 0.0101 > > 1132 0.0142 > > 1133 0.0187 > > 1134 0.0235 > > 1135 0.0285 > > 1136 0.0338 > > 1137 0.0397 > > 1138 0.0465 > > 1139 0.0528 > > 1140 0.0579 > > 1141 0.0605 > > 1142 0.0617 > > 1143 0.0621 > > 1144 0.0618 > > 1145 0.0610 > > 1146 0.0598 > > 1147 0.0583 > > 1148 0.0565 > > 1149 0.0545 > > 1150 0.0521 > > 1151 0.0493 > > 1152 0.0462 > > 1153 0.0428 > > 1154 0.0391 > > 1155 0.0354 > > 1156 0.0314 > > 1157 0.0273 > > 1158 0.0232 > > 1159 0.0189 > > 1160 0.0154 > > 1161 0.0139 > > 1162 0.0135 > > 1163 0.0138 > > 1164 0.0147 > > 1165 0.0159 > > 1166 0.0180 > > 1167 0.0211 > > 1168 -0.0885 > > 1169 -0.1378 > > 1170 -0.0872 > > 1171 -0.0466 > > 1172 -0.0167 > > 1173 -0.0022 > > 1174 0.0058 > > 1175 0.0109 > > 1176 0.0145 > > 1177 0.0170 > > 1178 0.0181 > > 1179 0.0184 > > 1180 0.0186 > > 1181 0.0188 > > 1182 0.0188 > > 1183 0.0187 > > 1184 0.0179 > > 1185 0.0162 > > 1186 0.0149 > > 1187 0.0138 > > 1188 -0.0278 > > 1189 -0.0473 > > 1190 -0.0539 > > 1191 -0.0498 > > 1192 -0.0282 > > 1193 -0.0143 > > 1194 -0.0044 > > 1195 0.0019 > > 1196 -0.0292 > > 1197 -0.0416 > > 1198 -0.0223 > > 1199 -0.0061 > > 1200 0.0060 > > 1201 0.0119 > > 1202 0.0145 > > 1203 0.0148 > > 1204 0.0150 > > 1205 0.0149 > > 1206 -0.0067 > > 1207 -0.0169 > > 1208 -0.0084 > > 1209 -0.0018 > > 1210 0.0024 > > 1211 0.0034 > > 1212 0.0030 > > 1213 0.0014 > > 1214 -0.0014 > > 1215 -0.0039 > > 1216 -0.0062 > > 1217 -0.0086 > > 1218 -0.0111 > > 1219 -0.0137 > > 1220 -0.0157 > > 1221 -0.0170 > > 1222 -0.0183 > > 1223 -0.0186 > > 1224 -0.0183 > > 1225 -0.0425 > > 1226 -0.0528 > > 1227 -0.0405 > > 1228 -0.2691 > > 1229 -0.3691 > > 1230 -0.2581 > > 1231 -0.1697 > > 1232 -0.1079 > > 1233 -0.0812 > > 1234 -0.0670 > > 1235 -0.0576 > > 1236 -0.0507 > > 1237 -0.0453 > > 1238 -0.0410 > > 1239 -0.0374 > > 1240 -0.0344 > > 1241 -0.0317 > > 1242 -0.0292 > > 1243 -0.0269 > > 1244 -0.0248 > > 1245 -0.0229 > > 1246 -0.0210 > > 1247 -0.0193 > > 1248 -0.0176 > > 1249 -0.0160 > > 1250 -0.0149 > > 1251 -0.0255 > > 1252 -0.0307 > > 1253 -0.0263 > > 1254 -0.0231 > > 1255 -0.0211 > > 1256 -0.0208 > > 1257 -0.0213 > > 1258 -0.7395 > > 1259 -1.1808 > > 1260 -0.9350 > > 1261 -0.6878 > > 1262 -0.4842 > > 1263 -0.3714 > > 1264 -0.3014 > > 1265 -0.2530 > > 1266 -0.2175 > > 1267 -0.2367 > > 1268 -0.2364 > > 1269 -0.2003 > > 1270 -0.1725 > > 1271 -0.1511 > > 1272 -0.1377 > > 1273 -0.1283 > > 1274 -0.1212 > > 1275 -0.1158 > > 1276 -0.2556 > > 1277 -0.3861 > > 1278 -0.3647 > > 1279 -0.3193 > > 1280 -0.2720 > > 1281 -0.2385 > > 1282 -0.2144 > > 1283 -0.1957 > > 1284 -0.1802 > > 1285 -0.1683 > > 1286 -0.3874 > > 1287 -0.5363 > > 1288 -0.4623 > > 1289 -0.3804 > > 1290 -0.3095 > > 1291 -0.2667 > > 1292 -0.2379 > > 1293 -0.2180 > > 1294 -0.2034 > > 1295 -0.1921 > > 1296 -0.1826 > > 1297 -0.1975 > > 1298 -0.2022 > > 1299 -0.1885 > > 1300 -0.1771 > > 1301 -0.1672 > > 1302 -0.1600 > > 1303 -0.1541 > > 1304 -0.1488 > > 1305 -0.1438 > > 1306 -0.1391 > > 1307 -0.1346 > > 1308 -0.1302 > > 1309 -0.1260 > > 1310 -0.1221 > > 1311 -0.1190 > > 1312 -0.1163 > > 1313 -0.1139 > > 1314 -0.1118 > > 1315 -0.1098 > > 1316 -0.1080 > > 1317 -0.1063 > > 1318 -0.1048 > > 1319 -0.1033 > > 1320 -0.1023 > > 1321 -0.1023 > > 1322 -0.1030 > > 1323 -0.1039 > > 1324 -0.1048 > > 1325 -0.1407 > > 1326 -0.1576 > > 1327 -0.1433 > > 1328 -0.1322 > > 1329 -0.1246 > > 1330 -0.1210 > > 1331 -0.1396 > > 1332 -0.1459 > > 1333 -0.1322 > > 1334 -0.1208 > > 1335 -0.1122 > > 1336 -0.1057 > > 1337 -0.1002 > > 1338 -0.0949 > > 1339 -0.0898 > > 1340 -0.0849 > > 1341 -0.0979 > > 1342 -0.1021 > > 1343 -0.0917 > > 1344 -0.0823 > > 1345 -0.3058 > > 1346 -0.4490 > > 1347 -0.3695 > > 1348 -0.2866 > > 1349 -0.2170 > > 1350 -0.1769 > > 1351 -0.1511 > > 1352 -0.1326 > > 1353 -0.1188 > > 1354 -0.1080 > > 1355 -0.0993 > > 1356 -0.0923 > > 1357 -0.0868 > > 1358 -0.0831 > > 1359 -0.0793 > > 1360 -0.0754 > > 1361 -0.0708 > > 1362 -0.0658 > > 1363 -0.0605 > > 1364 -0.0557 > > 1365 -0.0516 > > 1366 -0.0474 > > 1367 -0.0437 > > 1368 -0.0392 > > 1369 -0.0344 > > 1370 -0.0304 > > 1371 -0.0281 > > 1372 -0.0269 > > 1373 -0.0264 > > 1374 -0.0264 > > 1375 -0.0267 > > 1376 -0.0463 > > 1377 -0.0569 > > 1378 -0.0506 > > 1379 -0.0458 > > 1380 -0.0427 > > 1381 -0.0420 > > 1382 -0.0717 > > 1383 -0.0857 > > 1384 -0.0736 > > 1385 -0.0644 > > 1386 -0.0581 > > 1387 -0.0559 > > 1388 -0.0555 > > 1389 -0.0990 > > 1390 -0.1194 > > 1391 -0.1006 > > 1392 -0.0850 > > 1393 -0.0750 > > 1394 -0.0720 > > 1395 -0.0711 > > 1396 -0.0711 > > 1397 -0.0716 > > 1398 -0.0725 > > 1399 -0.0737 > > 1400 -0.0749 > > 1401 -0.0753 > > 1402 -0.0749 > > 1403 -0.0751 > > 1404 -0.0755 > > 1405 -0.0759 > > 1406 -0.0765 > > 1407 -0.0770 > > 1408 -0.0776 > > 1409 -0.0782 > > 1410 -0.0783 > > 1411 -0.0774 > > 1412 -0.0772 > > 1413 -0.0771 > > 1414 -0.0772 > > 1415 -0.0772 > > 1416 -0.0773 > > 1417 -0.0774 > > 1418 -0.0776 > > 1419 -0.0777 > > 1420 -0.0775 > > 1421 -0.0767 > > 1422 -0.0769 > > 1423 -0.0773 > > 1424 -0.0780 > > 1425 -0.0788 > > 1426 -0.0797 > > 1427 -0.0807 > > 1428 -0.0817 > > 1429 -0.0828 > > 1430 -0.0842 > > 1431 -0.0862 > > 1432 -0.0885 > > 1433 -0.0911 > > 1434 -0.0939 > > 1435 -0.0968 > > 1436 -0.0998 > > 1437 -0.1029 > > 1438 -0.1062 > > 1439 -0.1095 > > 1440 -0.1125 > > 1441 -0.1152 > > 1442 -0.1717 > > 1443 -0.1980 > > 1444 -0.1760 > > 1445 -0.1584 > > 1446 -0.1459 > > 1447 -0.1416 > > 1448 -0.1415 > > 1449 -0.1416 > > 1450 -0.1415 > > 1451 -0.1414 > > 1452 -0.1419 > > 1453 -0.3236 > > 1454 -0.4920 > > 1455 -0.4675 > > 1456 -0.4123 > > 1457 -0.3535 > > 1458 -0.3121 > > 1459 -0.2830 > > 1460 -0.3580 > > 1461 -0.3844 > > 1462 -0.3268 > > 1463 -0.2809 > > 1464 -0.2468 > > 1465 -0.2491 > > 1466 -0.2460 > > 1467 -0.2266 > > 1468 -0.2112 > > 1469 -0.2138 > > 1470 -0.2125 > > 1471 -0.2003 > > 1472 -0.1906 > > 1473 -0.1832 > > 1474 -0.1784 > > 1475 -0.1749 > > 1476 -0.1721 > > 1477 -0.1693 > > 1478 -0.1661 > > 1479 -0.1639 > > 1480 -0.2170 > > 1481 -0.2403 > > 1482 -0.2440 > > 1483 -0.2352 > > 1484 -0.2055 > > 1485 -0.1863 > > 1486 -0.1730 > > 1487 -0.1646 > > 1488 -0.1594 > > 1489 -0.1557 > > 1490 -0.1526 > > 1491 -0.1491 > > 1492 -0.1448 > > 1493 -0.1697 > > 1494 -0.1793 > > 1495 -0.1624 > > 1496 -0.1466 > > 1497 -0.1351 > > 1498 -0.1279 > > 1499 -0.1226 > > 1500 -0.1184 > > 1501 -0.1144 > > 1502 -0.1102 > > 1503 -0.1362 > > 1504 -0.1469 > > 1505 -0.1315 > > 1506 -0.1189 > > 1507 -0.1092 > > 1508 -0.1036 > > 1509 -0.0997 > > 1510 -0.0964 > > 1511 -0.0933 > > 1512 -0.2074 > > 1513 -0.2587 > > 1514 -0.2063 > > 1515 -0.1643 > > 1516 -0.1342 > > 1517 -0.1202 > > 1518 -0.1132 > > 1519 -0.1091 > > 1520 -0.1065 > > 1521 -0.1045 > > 1522 -0.1028 > > 1523 -0.1013 > > 1524 -0.0999 > > 1525 -0.1142 > > 1526 -0.1201 > > 1527 -0.1121 > > 1528 -0.1056 > > 1529 -0.1006 > > 1530 -0.0971 > > 1531 -0.0932 > > 1532 -0.0900 > > 1533 -0.0877 > > 1534 -0.0862 > > 1535 -0.0842 > > 1536 -0.0822 > > 1537 -0.0799 > > 1538 -0.0775 > > 1539 -0.0750 > > 1540 -0.0726 > > 1541 -0.0703 > > 1542 -0.0682 > > 1543 -0.0661 > > 1544 -0.0641 > > 1545 -0.0621 > > 1546 -0.0602 > > 1547 -0.0582 > > 1548 -0.0566 > > 1549 -0.0554 > > 1550 -0.0539 > > 1551 -0.0522 > > 1552 -0.0504 > > 1553 -0.0484 > > 1554 -0.1061 > > 1555 -0.1316 > > 1556 -0.1043 > > 1557 -0.0815 > > 1558 -0.0645 > > 1559 -0.0556 > > 1560 -0.0501 > > 1561 -0.0462 > > 1562 -0.0696 > > 1563 -0.0791 > > 1564 -0.0649 > > 1565 -0.0535 > > 1566 -0.0449 > > 1567 -0.0404 > > 1568 -0.0384 > > 1569 -0.0365 > > 1570 -0.0347 > > 1571 -0.0725 > > 1572 -0.0888 > > 1573 -0.0697 > > 1574 -0.0548 > > 1575 -0.0446 > > 1576 -0.0391 > > 1577 -0.0357 > > 1578 -0.0337 > > 1579 -0.0329 > > 1580 -0.0465 > > 1581 -0.0524 > > 1582 -0.0460 > > 1583 -0.0407 > > 1584 -0.0373 > > 1585 -0.0352 > > 1586 -0.0542 > > 1587 -0.3537 > > 1588 -0.3543 > > 1589 -0.2711 > > 1590 -0.2182 > > 1591 -0.1774 > > 1592 -0.1433 > > 1593 -0.1316 > > 1594 -0.1501 > > 1595 -0.1449 > > 1596 -0.1326 > > 1597 -0.1185 > > 1598 -0.1062 > > 1599 -0.0968 > > 1600 -0.4064 > > 1601 -0.6868 > > 1602 -0.5638 > > 1603 -0.4293 > > 1604 -0.3181 > > 1605 -0.2567 > > 1606 -0.2191 > > 1607 -0.1938 > > 1608 -0.1764 > > 1609 -0.1632 > > 1610 -0.1528 > > 1611 -0.1446 > > 1612 -0.1383 > > 1613 -0.1336 > > 1614 -0.1296 > > 1615 -0.1261 > > 1616 -0.1231 > > 1617 -0.1205 > > 1618 -0.1183 > > 1619 -0.1165 > > 1620 -0.1275 > > 1621 -0.1905 > > 1622 -0.1850 > > 1623 -0.1666 > > 1624 -0.1498 > > 1625 -0.1377 > > 1626 -0.1308 > > 1627 -0.1263 > > 1628 -0.1227 > > 1629 -0.1192 > > 1630 -0.1172 > > 1631 -0.1162 > > 1632 -0.1154 > > 1633 -0.1155 > > 1634 -0.1153 > > 1635 -0.1146 > > 1636 -0.1148 > > 1637 -0.1154 > > 1638 -0.2233 > > 1639 -0.2869 > > 1640 -0.2720 > > 1641 -0.4836 > > 1642 -0.6308 > > 1643 -0.5234 > > 1644 -0.4024 > > 1645 -0.3146 > > 1646 -0.2653 > > 1647 -0.2547 > > 1648 -0.2313 > > 1649 -0.2107 > > 1650 -0.1956 > > 1651 -0.1850 > > 1652 -0.1776 > > 1653 -0.1722 > > 1654 -0.1683 > > 1655 -0.1658 > > 1656 -0.1638 > > 1657 -0.1620 > > 1658 -0.1606 > > 1659 -0.1595 > > 1660 -0.1587 > > 1661 -0.1582 > > 1662 -0.1586 > > 1663 -0.1599 > > 1664 -0.1609 > > 1665 -0.1618 > > 1666 -0.1627 > > 1667 -0.1700 > > 1668 -0.3882 > > 1669 -0.3791 > > 1670 -0.3082 > > 1671 -0.2583 > > 1672 -0.2260 > > 1673 -0.2488 > > 1674 -0.3553 > > 1675 -0.3340 > > 1676 -0.2968 > > 1677 -0.2656 > > 1678 -0.2464 > > 1679 -0.2355 > > 1680 -0.2402 > > 1681 -0.3331 > > 1682 -0.3229 > > 1683 -0.2916 > > 1684 -0.2658 > > 1685 -0.2484 > > 1686 -0.2385 > > 1687 -0.2319 > > 1688 -0.2277 > > 1689 -0.2430 > > 1690 -0.2478 > > 1691 -0.2366 > > 1692 -0.2272 > > 1693 -0.2326 > > 1694 -0.4196 > > 1695 -0.4265 > > 1696 -0.5141 > > 1697 -0.4683 > > 1698 -0.3953 > > 1699 -0.3420 > > 1700 -0.3036 > > 1701 -0.2799 > > 1702 -0.2631 > > 1703 -0.2505 > > 1704 -0.2408 > > 1705 -0.2327 > > 1706 -0.2251 > > 1707 -0.2189 > > 1708 -0.2136 > > 1709 -0.2090 > > 1710 -0.2046 > > 1711 -0.2002 > > 1712 -0.1962 > > 1713 -0.1920 > > 1714 -0.1874 > > 1715 -0.1828 > > 1716 -0.1780 > > 1717 -0.1733 > > 1718 -0.1686 > > 1719 -0.1640 > > 1720 -0.1593 > > 1721 -0.1544 > > 1722 -0.1499 > > 1723 -0.1461 > > 1724 -0.1416 > > 1725 -0.1478 > > 1726 -0.1478 > > 1727 -0.1380 > > 1728 -0.1291 > > 1729 -0.1217 > > 1730 -0.1170 > > 1731 -0.1477 > > 1732 -0.1600 > > 1733 -0.1415 > > 1734 -0.1264 > > 1735 -0.1148 > > 1736 -0.1081 > > 1737 -0.1035 > > 1738 -0.0998 > > 1739 -0.1021 > > 1740 -0.1882 > > 1741 -0.1757 > > 1742 -0.1434 > > 1743 -0.1206 > > 1744 -0.1059 > > 1745 -0.0985 > > 1746 -0.0933 > > 1747 -0.0887 > > 1748 -0.0855 > > 1749 -0.0832 > > 1750 -0.0810 > > 1751 -0.0785 > > 1752 -0.0759 > > 1753 -0.0732 > > 1754 -0.0704 > > 1755 -0.0676 > > 1756 -0.0653 > > 1757 -0.0638 > > 1758 -0.0616 > > 1759 -0.0592 > > 1760 -0.0570 > > 1761 -0.0546 > > 1762 -0.1106 > > 1763 -0.1352 > > 1764 -0.1068 > > 1765 -0.0832 > > 1766 -0.0658 > > 1767 -0.0564 > > 1768 -0.0498 > > 1769 -0.0900 > > 1770 -0.1053 > > 1771 -0.0797 > > 1772 -0.0572 > > 1773 -0.0396 > > 1774 -0.0284 > > 1775 -0.0193 > > 1776 -0.0106 > > 1777 -0.0037 > > 1778 0.0018 > > 1779 0.0077 > > 1780 0.0128 > > 1781 0.0155 > > 1782 0.0169 > > 1783 0.0011 > > 1784 -0.0845 > > 1785 -0.0644 > > 1786 -0.0342 > > 1787 -0.0122 > > 1788 -0.0003 > > 1789 0.0050 > > 1790 -0.0293 > > 1791 -0.0290 > > 1792 -0.0137 > > 1793 -0.0020 > > 1794 0.0081 > > 1795 0.0153 > > 1796 0.0209 > > 1797 0.0241 > > 1798 0.0252 > > 1799 0.0253 > > 1800 0.0247 > > 1801 0.0238 > > 1802 0.0225 > > 1803 0.0210 > > 1804 0.0191 > > 1805 0.0171 > > 1806 0.0155 > > 1807 0.0144 > > 1808 0.0126 > > 1809 -0.1410 > > 1810 -0.4491 > > 1811 -0.3860 > > 1812 -0.2857 > > 1813 -0.2134 > > 1814 -0.1664 > > 1815 -0.3297 > > 1816 -0.7065 > > 1817 -0.6092 > > 1818 -0.4630 > > 1819 -0.3364 > > 1820 -0.2579 > > 1821 -0.2075 > > 1822 -0.1706 > > 1823 -0.1414 > > 1824 -0.1184 > > 1825 -0.0998 > > 1826 -0.0840 > > 1827 -0.0700 > > 1828 -0.0569 > > 1829 -0.0469 > > 1830 -0.0805 > > 1831 -0.1434 > > 1832 -0.2657 > > 1833 -0.2130 > > 1834 -0.1494 > > 1835 -0.2771 > > 1836 -0.3586 > > 1837 -0.2786 > > 1838 -0.2018 > > 1839 -0.1392 > > 1840 -0.1257 > > 1841 -0.1109 > > 1842 -0.0806 > > 1843 -0.0706 > > 1844 -0.0783 > > 1845 -0.0543 > > 1846 -0.0323 > > 1847 -0.0144 > > 1848 -0.0014 > > 1849 0.0079 > > 1850 0.0153 > > 1851 0.0213 > > 1852 0.0268 > > 1853 0.0323 > > 1854 -0.0084 > > 1855 -0.0159 > > 1856 0.0070 > > 1857 0.0244 > > 1858 0.0376 > > 1859 0.0460 > > 1860 0.0515 > > 1861 0.0326 > > 1862 0.0154 > > 1863 0.0237 > > 1864 0.0363 > > 1865 0.0477 > > 1866 0.0563 > > 1867 0.0438 > > 1868 0.0409 > > 1869 0.0555 > > 1870 0.0668 > > 1871 0.0759 > > 1872 0.0824 > > 1873 0.0872 > > 1874 0.0914 > > 1875 0.0945 > > 1876 0.0979 > > 1877 0.1009 > > 1878 0.1031 > > 1879 0.1059 > > 1880 0.1081 > > 1881 0.1062 > > 1882 0.1080 > > 1883 0.0938 > > 1884 -0.1750 > > 1885 -0.1728 > > 1886 -0.0932 > > 1887 -0.0253 > > 1888 0.0228 > > 1889 0.0497 > > 1890 0.0689 > > 1891 0.0831 > > 1892 0.0937 > > 1893 0.1026 > > 1894 0.1107 > > 1895 0.1170 > > 1896 0.1222 > > 1897 0.1271 > > 1898 0.1322 > > 1899 0.1368 > > 1900 0.1422 > > 1901 0.1483 > > 1902 0.1540 > > 1903 0.0940 > > 1904 0.0914 > > 1905 0.1187 > > 1906 0.1429 > > 1907 0.1470 > > 1908 0.1425 > > 1909 0.1620 > > 1910 0.1795 > > 1911 0.1936 > > 1912 0.1691 > > 1913 0.0091 > > 1914 0.0540 > > 1915 0.1199 > > 1916 0.1567 > > 1917 0.1813 > > 1918 0.2045 > > 1919 0.2217 > > 1920 0.2351 > > 1921 0.2458 > > 1922 0.2551 > > 1923 0.2631 > > 1924 0.2469 > > 1925 0.2373 > > 1926 0.2553 > > 1927 0.2711 > > 1928 0.2851 > > 1929 0.2971 > > 1930 0.3072 > > 1931 0.3169 > > 1932 0.3270 > > 1933 0.3363 > > 1934 0.3448 > > 1935 0.3521 > > 1936 0.3588 > > 1937 0.3598 > > 1938 0.3590 > > 1939 0.3651 > > 1940 0.3731 > > 1941 0.3802 > > 1942 0.3865 > > 1943 0.3711 > > 1944 0.3652 > > 1945 0.3758 > > 1946 0.3841 > > 1947 0.3912 > > 1948 0.3945 > > 1949 0.3957 > > 1950 0.3972 > > 1951 0.3967 > > 1952 0.3849 > > 1953 0.3914 > > 1954 0.3986 > > 1955 0.4038 > > 1956 0.4076 > > 1957 0.4117 > > 1958 0.4157 > > 1959 0.4193 > > 1960 0.4167 > > 1961 0.4068 > > 1962 0.4054 > > 1963 0.3931 > > 1964 0.3433 > > 1965 0.3077 > > 1966 0.3147 > > 1967 0.3390 > > 1968 0.3385 > > 1969 0.3169 > > 1970 0.3453 > > 1971 0.3864 > > 1972 0.4180 > > 1973 0.4331 > > 1974 0.4388 > > 1975 0.4152 > > 1976 0.4381 > > 1977 0.4821 > > 1978 0.5187 > > 1979 0.5433 > > 1980 0.5751 > > 1981 0.5993 > > 1982 0.5528 > > 1983 0.3952 > > 1984 0.4441 > > 1985 0.5260 > > 1986 0.5756 > > 1987 0.6154 > > 1988 0.6612 > > 1989 0.7037 > > 1990 0.7357 > > 1991 0.7296 > > 1992 0.5345 > > 1993 0.5596 > > 1994 0.6365 > > 1995 0.6964 > > 1996 0.7457 > > 1997 0.7917 > > 1998 0.8404 > > 1999 0.8869 > > 2000 0.9286 > > 2001 0.9635 > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- 5129. 2005-06-13 13:16:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jun 13 13:16:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: global surface temperature time series to: "Thomas C Peterson" , Kevin Trenberth Tom, Ch 3 of the IPCC report will discuss developments since the TAR. So Ch 1 should probably go up to the TAR, but it could stop earlier around 1990 (with the first IPCC report). A smooth transition will likely be up to the TAR. The CCSP document probably needs to go into much more detail, so may not be entirely relevant. I would have thought that Ch 1 should place greater emphasis on work pre-IPCC. Some of the references I gave you the other week would be best for this. There is a need to get across the fact that IPCC didn't invent global temperatures. Groups were working on this before 1990 and there were two major reviews pre-1990, namely the SCOPE one in 1986 and the earlier DoE State of the Art report from 1982 (which Bill Clark edited). The other thing to get across is that no matter how the data are analysed the results are pretty much the same - even back to Murray Mitchell. Cheers Phil At 20:11 08/06/2005, Thomas C Peterson wrote: Dear Kevin & Phil, I'm currently writing a new section for our IPCC introductory chapter on the history of global surface temperatures time series. My description will focus on early efforts and with some general comments about moderately recent developments - i.e., up to the TAR. As I recall, your chapter discusses developments since the TAR. Which reminded me that I wanted to send you the revised version of the article describing the new NCDC/NOAA global temperature time series (attached). Also I wanted to know if I end around the time of the TAR and refer vaguely to three major groups producing surface temperature time series - NOAA, NASA and the UK (as per the CCSP VTT document (I'll paste the May 5th version below for reference purposes only) will that be a smooth transition into your chapter or would you like me to deal with the different global analyses in some other manner? Regards, Tom Peterson 2. SURFACE TEMPERATURES 2.1 Land-based temperature data Over land temperature data come from fixed weather observing stations with thermometers housed in special instrument shelters. Records of temperature from many thousands of such stations exist. Chapter 2 outlines the difficulties in developing reliable surface temperature datasets. One concern is the variety of changes that may affect temperature measurements at an individual station. For example, the thermometer or instrument shelter might change, the time of day when the thermometers are read might change, or the station might move. These problems are addressed through a variety of procedures (see Peterson et al., 1998a for a review) that are generally quite successful at removing the effects of such changes at individual stations (e.g., Vose et al., 2003) whether the changes are documented in the metadata or detected via statistical analysis using data from neighboring stations as well (Aguilar et al., 2003). Subtle or widespread impacts that might be expected from urbanization or the growth of trees around observing sites might still contaminate a data set. These problems are addressed either actively in the data processing stage (e.g., Hansen et al., 2001) or through data set evaluation to ensure as much as possible that the data are not biased (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson, 2003; Parker, 2004; Peterson and Owen, 2005). Changes in regional land use such as deforestation, aforestation, agricultural practices, and other regional changes in land use are not addressed in the development of these data sets. Modeling studies have suggested over decades to centuries these affects can be important on regional space scales (Oleson et al., 2004). 2.2 Marine temperature data Data over the ocean come from moored buoys, drifting buoys, and volunteer observing ships. Historically, ships have provided most of the data but in recent years an increasing number of buoys have been used, placed primarily in data-sparse areas away from shipping lanes. In addition, satellite data are often used after 1981. Many of the ships and buoys take both air temperature observations and sea surface temperature (SST) observations. Night marine air temperature (NMAT) observations have been used to avoid the problem that the Suns heating of the ships deck can make the thermometer reading warmer than the actual air temperature. Where there are dense observations of NMAT and SST, over the long term they track each other very well. However, since marine observations in an area may only be taken a few times per month, SST has the advantage over air temperature in that water temperature changes much more slowly than that of air. Also, there are twice as many SST observations as NMAT from the same platforms as SSTs are taken during both the day and night and SST data are supplemented in data sparse areas by drifting buoys which do not take air temperature measurements. Accordingly, only having a few SST observations in a grid box for a month can still provide an accurate measure of the average temperature of the month. 2.3 Global surface temperature data Creating global surface temperature analyses usually involves not only merging land and ocean data but also considering how best to represent areas where there are few or no observations. One approach is to only use those grid boxes with data. This conservative approach avoids any error associated with interpolating data. Unfortunately, the areas without data are not evenly or even randomly distributed around the world, leading to considerable uncertainties in the analysis, though it is possible to make an estimate of these uncertainties. Using the conservative approach, the tropical land surface areas would be under represented, as would the southern ocean. Therefore, techniques have been developed to interpolate data to some extent into surrounding data-void regions. A single group may produce several different such data sets for different purposes. The choice may depend on whether the interest is a particular local region, the entire globe, or use of the data set with climate models (Chapter 5). Currently, there are three main groups creating global analyses of surface temperature (see Table 3A). 2.3.1 NOAA The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) integrated land and ocean data set (see Table 3A) is derived from in situ data. The SSTs come from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) SST observations release 2 (Slutz et al., 1985; Woodruff et al., 1998; Diaz et al., 2002). Those that pass quality control tests are averaged into monthly 2^o grid boxes (Smith and Reynolds, 2003). The land surface air temperature data come from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) (Peterson and Vose, 1997) and are averaged into 5^o grid boxes. A reconstruction approach is used to create complete global coverage by combining together the faster and slower varying components of temperature (van den Dool et al., 2000; Smith and Reynolds, 2005). 2.3.2 NASA The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) produces a global air temperature analysis (see Table 3A) known as GISTEMP using land surface temperature data primarily from GHCN and the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN; Easterling, et al., 1996). The NASA team modifies the GHCN/USHCN data by combining at each location the time records of the various sources and adjusting the non-rural stations in such a way that their long-term trends are consistent with those from neighboring rural stations (Hansen et al., 2001). These meteorological station measurements over land are combined with in situ sea surface temperatures and Infrared Radiation (IR) satellite measurements for 1982 to the present (Reynolds and Smith, 1994; Smith et al., 1996) to produce a global temperature index (Hansen et al., 1996). 2.3.3 UK The global land and ocean data set from the UK (see Table 3A) is produced as a joint effort by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological (Met) Office. The land surface air temperature data are from Jones and Moberg (2003) of the Climatic Research Unit. The global SST fields are produced by the Hadley Centre using a blend of COADS and Met Office data bank in situ observations (Rayner, et al., 2003). The integrated data set is known as HadCRUT2v (Jones and Moberg, 2003). The temperature anomalies were calculated on a 5^ox5^o grid box basis. Within each grid box, the temporal variability of the observations has been adjusted to account for the effect of changing the number of stations or SST observations in individual grid-box temperature time series (Jones et al., 1997, 2001). There is no reconstruction of data gaps because of the problems of introducing biased interpolated values. The global temperature and hemispheric time series have been created using a technique known as optimal averaging (Parker et al., 2004; Folland et al., 2001a) which provides estimates of uncertainty in the time series, including the effects of data gaps and uncertainties related to bias corrections or uncorrected biases. 2.3.4 Synopsis of surface datasets Since the three chosen datasets utilize many of the same raw observations, there is a degree of interdependence. Nevertheless, there are some differences among them as to which observing sites are utilized. There are three ways to assess how well the changing network of surface observations monitor global or regional temperature (Jones, 1995). The first is using frozen grids where analysis using only those grid boxes with data present in the sparsest years are used to compare to the full data set results from other years (e.g., Parker et al., 1994). The results generally indicate very small errors on multi-annual timescales (Jones, 1995). The second technique is subsampling a spatially complete field, such as model output, only where in situ observations are available. Again the errors are small (e.g., the standard errors are less than 0.06°C for the observing period 1880 to 1990; Peterson et al., 1998b). The third technique is comparing optimum averaging, which fills in the spatial field using covariance matrices, eigenfunctions or structure functions, with other analyses. Again, very small differences are found (Smith et al., 2005). The fidelity of the surface temperature record is further supported by work such as Peterson et al. (1999) which found that a rural subset of global land stations had almost the same global trend as the full network and Parker (2004) that found no signs of urban warming over the period. An important advantage of surface data is the fact that at any given time there are thousands of thermometers in use that contribute to a global or other large-scale average. Besides the tendency to cancel random errors, the large number of stations also greatly facilitates temporal homogenization since a given station may have several near-neighbors for buddy-checks. While there are fundamental differences in the global averaging procedures applied, the differing techniques with the same data produce almost the same results (Wuertz et al., 2005). 2.4 Global surface temperature variations and differences between the data sets Examination of the three global temperature anomaly time series (T[sfc]) from 1958 to the present shown in Figure 3.2.4 reveals that the three time series have a very high level of agreement. They all show some cooling from 1958 to around 1976, followed by strong warming. That most of the temperature change occurs after the mid 1970s has been previously documented (Karl et al., 2000; Folland et al., 2001b; Seidel and Lanzante, 2004). The variability of the time series is quite similar as are their trends. The signature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whose origin is in the tropics, is responsible for many of the prominent short-term (several year) up and down swings of temperature as expected (Trenberth et al., 2002). The strong El Niño of 1997-98 stands out as an especially large warm event within an overall upward trend. -- Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D. Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 Voice: +1-828-271-4287 Fax: +1-828-271-4328 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 907. 2005-06-13 16:16:00 ______________________________________________________ cc: Sarah Raper date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 16:16:00 -0600 from: Tom Wigley subject: paleo data to: Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn Dear three (plus one), I may have told you that I am contributing to a review paper on solar effects with Peter Foukal and some other astronomers. Part of this involves comparing MAGICC results with the paleo data. The results are quite interesting -- I will send them to you when I have updated them to account for my request below. I am sure my analysis is more comprehensive than anyone elses, but it still needs some work. I have compared MAGICC with ALL paleo data sets. However, I need to do this with data that are consistently low-pass filtered (with different filters). To do this means I need the raw (annual) paleo time series. I do not have all paleo data in this form. For example, some of the data that Phil and Mike Mann have produced seem only available as (roughly) decadally-smoothed data -- and Crowley has put somethong like an 11-year running mean (a crappy filter) through his data. I think I can get the raw Crowley data. Can any of you send me the Mann and Jones (NH, SH, GL) and Jones and Mann data please -- as soon as possible, as ASCII. My analyses so far have involved 1000s of model runs and statistical analyses. What goes into the Foukal et al. paper will just touch the surface of these results, since the paper is oriented towards the astronomical side. Caspar Ammann and I will write up a more complete paper on the climate side. You might like to be involved in this (Sarah too). We have various runs with paleo-CSM to cover too, and these are quite interesting. MAGICC fits the AOGCM very well. I am planning to come to CRU in early August. I would like to come sooner, but it is just not possible. I will tell you dates when I know them. Best wishes, Tom. 1360. 2005-06-13 17:08:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 17:08:01 +0200 from: Hugues Goosse subject: Re: IPCC AR4 model runs of last 1000 years to: Tim Osborn Dear Tim, The figures appear fine for me. The forcing we are using for Ozone reaches about 0.4 W/m2. If you add the weak radiative forcing of aerosols, it make more or less the differences with the others. ECBILT has a quite low sensitivity (in particular, the response is weak in the tropics, with a large impact at global scale, the response is more in agreement with other models in mid and high latitudes). That explains probably why the response is weak despite the larger forcing. All the best Hugues At 15:07 13/06/2005 +0100, you wrote: >Hugues, > >please see attached figure. Still in progress - more lines to add, plus >legend is incomplete. > >You were right that Crowley et al. (2003) use SO4 aerosol forcing that >reaches about -1 W/m2 by 2000. The lower value I told you comes from some >of their newer simulations! > >Your data are a dirty yellow colour. (c) shows "all other forcings" which >should include everything except volcanic and solar irradiance. You will >see that ECHO-G (red) is highest from 1850 to late 1900s, as expected >because of no SO4 cooling. But your data catch up and reach ECHO-G by >1990, despite SO4 cooling and land-use cooling. Hence your GHGs are >stronger (ECHO-G GHG was +1.8 W/m2 in 1990). They include only CO2, CH4 >and N2O. Maybe that explains it? > >Anyway, I think (hope) that everything is correct, but I would be please >if you could check that the "Goosse2005" series look right. > >Cheers > >Tim > > >At 11:18 13/06/2005, you wrote: >>Yes, it is the direct forcing applied in the model (TSI changes) not the >>forcing at the tropopause. >> >>Cheers >> >>Hugues >> >>At 09:55 13/06/2005 +0100, you wrote: >>>At 08:28 02/06/2005, you wrote: >>>>Hi Tim, >>>> >>>>I have attached the file I send to Pascale. It includes Solar forcing, >>>>volcanic forcing, >>> >>>Dear Hugues, >>> >>>a quick question - is the solar forcing the irradiance change, and thus >>>should I multiply by 0.25*(1-albedo) to convert to a forcing comparable >>>to GHG forcing? >>> >>>Cheers >>> >>>Tim >>> >>> >>> >>>Dr Timothy J Osborn >>>Climatic Research Unit >>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >>>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >>> >>>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>>phone: +44 1603 592089 >>>fax: +44 1603 507784 >>>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >>>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm >> >> -------------------------------------- >>GOOSSE Hugues >>http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/users/hgs/index.html >>Institut dAstronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître >>Université catholique de Louvain , Chemin du cyclotron, 2 >>1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium >> >>e-mail: hgs@astr.ucl.ac.be > > > >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -------------------------------------- GOOSSE Hugues http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/users/hgs/index.html Institut dAstronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Université catholique de Louvain , Chemin du cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium e-mail: hgs@astr.ucl.ac.be 1527. 2005-06-14 09:50:50 ______________________________________________________ cc: date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 09:50:50 +0100 from: "Rob Wilson" subject: Re: IPCC AR4 to: "Tim Osborn" Hi Tim [and Keith], Hopefully I will soon have reached a compromise with Philip Brohan with regards to the coral reconstruction paper - he has issues with the use of regression and we have been playing around with a pseudo-proxy data-set to test the method. I have comments from Keith and colleagues at GKSS, but will not start editing the paper until I have received something from you. I would like to do this as soon as possible as I move house in 2 weeks and would like to have the paper submitted before then. another a related issue. From both my TR NH recon and the coral recon, I noted that RE values seem to be grossly inflated. The attached figure shows a pseudo-proxy example - in this situation, calibration was made over the 1940-1981 period and verification over the 1897-1939 period. Clearly, the predicted values (Lrec) are too high. RE = 0.63, while CE = -0.74. In this example, a sole reliance on RE would be wrong and could result in a highly bias reconstruction. CE is telling the correct story - i.e. the predicted values should not be trusted. I was wondering what you and Keith have experienced over the years. There has been criticism by Macintyre of Mann's sole reliance on RE, and I am now starting to believe the accusations. Although RE is stating that it is still better to use the predictive values than the mean of the calibration period, that is essentially meaningless - surely? sorry for the pressure - but friendly pressure I hope regards Rob PS. Will get comments to you about the coral work very soon! Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\negative CE.pdf" 4055. 2005-06-14 10:13:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jun 14 10:13:35 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: positions to: "raymond s. bradley" Ray, I have money for Malcolm for the next 3 years. He likes to look for other opportunities every now and then. I hope he will stay at CRU. Clair Hanson is also good, but she's worked more on wind data and sceanrios and I've not had much research contact with her. Cheers Phil At 00:00 14/06/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil: I am advertising for a post-doc, to look at climate extremes in New England over the last ~200 years....I've had inquiries from Clair Hanson & Malcolm Haylock. What say you about them? I have not seen Clair's cv, but Haylock seems ideal for this position. We got the $$ from a Congressional earmark, so it comes directly through NOAA. We hope to get another one next year, so as to give us an additional couple of years cushion.... Hope all's going well. I just got back from the High Arctic (Ellesmere) --it was exceptionally warm...up to 15C in Axel Heiberg in the first week of June....quite an unusual year. Off to France on Sunday to continue along the Pilgrims' Trail...this time we will cross the Pyrenees into Spain. Cheers Ray Raymond S. Bradley Director, Climate System Research Center* Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Morrill Science Center 611 North Pleasant Street AMHERST, MA 01003-9297 Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 *Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 < [1]http://www.paleoclimate.org> Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html Publications (download .pdf files): [3]http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradleypub.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2687. 2005-06-14 10:30:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jun 14 10:30:54 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Distortion of the work of CRU by Geologist Bob Carter in the to: "David Jones" David, Thanks for the email. There is really no point in trying to engage with these sort of people. It is just a waste of time. There is no research at CRU at UEA which shows that temperatures have cooled since 1998. The temperature plot on our web page may appear to show this, but no-one in their right mind would base anything on a 5-7 year trend. It's surprising he should say this as a geologist, who normally think of this sort of period as a few seconds in geologic time. He is so out of step on virtually everything he has said - not just related to us here. - the world will not get colder. There won't be any sort of ice age for the next 50K years. - the Roman and Medieval periods were cooler than today in Europe. Several passes in the Swiss/Austrian/Italian Alps are opening up in summer and material from when they were last open is appearing. It is either from the climate optimum (6K years ago) or from the Bronze Age. A little of it is Roman. None is Medieval. Considering the lag in the glacial system, many don't have many years left even if no more warming occurs. The Thames froze over between 1450 and 1830 because of the old London Bridge. In case you want to respond here is a paper that has some of these issues in them. An angle you could use might be this. Australians might think it a joke that the English are growing grapes. There are 400 vineyards now compared to ~40 in 1086 at the time of the Domesday Book. Growers from the French champagne region are looking at buying land in Southern England - a strange state of affairs, but true ! Also unlikely is an English victory over Australia at cricket. Might be a different story when they get to the more serious one and five day games ! Cheers Phil At 03:08 14/06/2005, you wrote: Phil, I thought I would draw the article linked to below to your attention - [1]http://theage.com.au/articles/2005/06/12/1118514924793.html. In particular the two paragraphs " A cooling trend took place between 1940 and 1970, when temperatures began to rise again, reaching a peak in 1998. "This coincided with the biggest El Nino in the 20th century," he said. However, research by the climate research unit at East Anglia University in Britain had shown that the average global temperature had declined since 1998. " Bob Carter's email address is bob.carter@jcu.edu.au . He is infamous for distorting climate change science in the media. Regards, David Dr David Jones Head of Climate Analysis Section National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Victoria 3001, Australia email : D.Jones@bom.gov.au Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678 Ph (work) : (+61 3) 9669 4085 Ph (mobile): 0400132764 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4701. 2005-06-14 11:21:26 ______________________________________________________ cc: ,"Hans Teunissen" , "Stephan Bojinski" date: Tue Jun 14 11:21:26 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Certificates of Recogniton to: "Hans Teunissen" , , Hans, I am snowed under with visitors in CRU this week and with IPCC. A quick look at the certificates for both the GSN and GUAN indicates that you seem to have covered everything. I was wondering why silent stations were going to get something, but as long as the covering letter explains the three possible levels of performance then PRs should get the message about what needs to be done to improve performance. The GSN letter should include the sentence about historical data. Presumably we don't need to ask the PRs for comments on the system. If they want respond I presume they will. Cheers Phil At 08:36 14/06/2005, Hans Teunissen wrote: Dear All: Further to the AGG recommendations on Certificates of Appreciation for GSN stations, Stephan and I have pursued the details of the process and have come up with the following procedures and proposals. For GSN, there are three categories of stations that should get certificates: 1. Stations in the network lists that are silent 2. Stations that have met some of the criteria defined 3. Stations that have met all of the criteria. Attached are samples of the proposed Certificates for each category. You'll see that we have replaced the 'stars' and their definition with a simple 'tick' box which does the same thing, but in an easier (and clearer, we think) way. We have also changed the name from Cerificate of Appreciation to Certificate of Recognition, partly in response to some sentiments we got here to the effect that it seems odd to be 'appreciating' something while at the same time making it obvious that they are not doing what they are supposed to. This change also helps soften the oddity of sending certificates to stations that are silent. Furthermore, for the silent stations, you'll see we have left off the criteria entirely. These will be included in the covering letter, which will go to all relevant PRs with copies to the Focal Points. A sample letter for GSN is attached. For the GUAN, the approach will be similar. Stephan is currently using the information Tom provided to categorize all the stations. Following that, we'll have to get translations and then print and mail the batches of certificates. The total process will likely take several weeks more, given EC here for the next couple of weeks, but at least we're progressing! Please provide any comments you have on this approach and on the certificates and/or wording. Cheers, Hans (and Stephan). ================================================================= Dr. Hans W. Teunissen Tel: +41.22.730.8086 Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Fax: +41.22.730.8052 c/o World Meteorological Organization E-mail: [1]HTeunissen@wmo.int 7 bis, Ave. de la Paix CP 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland ================================================================= Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1865. 2005-06-14 13:20:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: Thorsten Kiefer , vdetemmerman@wmo.int, Heinz Wanner , Anders Moberg date: Tue Jun 14 13:20:10 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: CLIVAR-PAGES workshop questioned to: Christoph Kull , Eystein Jansen , "Michael E. Mann" , Andrew Weaver , Keith Briffa , zhongwei yan Christoph, I have discussed our deliberations last week with Anders Moberg whilst he is here this week. Preparing the key datasets will be crucial to the success of the workshop. Whilst we can produce some standard datasets for each group to run through their approaches this will only work if it is with model data. We will need some carefully produced model datasets that combine the low- and high-frequency components of the chosen model run(s). Standard observational datasets (paleo) will only work for a few of the groups. These will only be able to test methods, not the philosophy behind the approaches. Once the meeting is approved by all concerned, we need to work as group (all the invitees) to develop these datasets. My own view is that the methods themselves will not produce very different results with standard datasets. Whether the low-frequency in the proxy series is real or realistic is the crucial aspect. This might be resolved regionally through additional workshops. The longer European instrumental data will be crucial to testing philosophy for Europe, so the workshop should provide a template for other regions of the world. Cheers Phil At 07:17 14/06/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear all, Sorry for the late reply! I spent my final day of Swiss Army military service yesterday....:-)!! About the planned workshop: We had a short planning meeting last week at the PAGES IPO in Bern. As discussed in Victoria past November, this event will be a joint CLIVAR/PAGES activity following the spirit of the (by the Working Group accepted) scientific agenda, including data, modeling and methodological issues of those past millennia reconstructions, PAGES IPO was charged to take the lead organizing this event together with Mike Mann and Keith Briffa. Last week we discussed in a small group (IPO, Mike Mann, Phil Jones, Heinz Wanner) logistical and scientific aspects of this event. PAGES will provide funding in the order of 10k US$, hopefully CLIVAR will also be able to contribute. Actually, I am preparing a short document - based on the discussion held last week - outlining the ideas for this event. I will be able to circulate this by end of the week. All the best and greetings from Bern, Christoph On 14.06.2005 07:27, "Eystein Jansen" wrote: > Dear Zhongwei and Mike, > Thanks for bringing this up and taking the initiatives. > When we discussed the Pages/clivar plans it was > clear to all in the panel that the workshop was > not merely a workshop on paleo-proxy methodology, > i.e. Pages stuff, but the intention was to bring > the climate modelling aspects closely into the > workshop both in terms of using data and models > innovatively for improving recnstructions and for > data/model intercomparisons. I think there should > be lots of stuff for the dec./cen aspects of > Clivar in what we had in mind, both in terms of > regional aspects and decadal/mulitdecadal modes > of variability, but it is clear that these > objectives need to be made visible in the > workshop document. > > Best regards > Eystein > > > At 13:46 -0400 13-06-05, Michael E. Mann wrote: >> Phil, >> >> Thanks for providing the clarification on this. >> Sorry to all if my original message was unclear. >> >> I expect we'll hear further word from Christoph >> on this shortly. I was just relaying what I took >> from this meeting regarding the specific planned >> workshop on climate of the past one/two >> millennia... >> >> mike >> >> At 11:43 AM 6/13/2005, Phil Jones wrote: >> >>> Dear All, >>> I was at the meeting last week with Mike >>> in Bern. My understanding is that >>> there will be a CLIVAR/PAGES Intersection workshop in 2006 (maybe June). >>> The proposal Mike is talking about is for this meeting - a necessity to >>> gain >>> some CLIVAR support. Christoph is preparing the document/proposal which >>> will have the aims of the meeting and a list of possible invitees. >>> >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>> At 16:20 13/06/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: >>> >>>> Mike >>>> >>>> can you clarify , from whom this proposal is >>>> coming - do you mean a proposal independent of >>>> the original CLIVAR/PAGES concept/ >>>> Keith >>>> >>>> At 15:18 13/06/2005, zhongwei yan wrote: >>>> >>>>>> Dear Zhongwei, >>>>>> >>>>>> Thanks for the heads up on this. In fact, >>>>>> several of us (Christoph, Thorsten, Phil >>>>>> Jones, and myself) met in Bern last week to >>>>>> discuss this very topic. >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> That's great. >>>>> >>>>>> The issues you raise were indeed a focal >>>>>> point ofÝ our discussions, and I think that >>>>>> the initial ideas we came up with regarding >>>>>> the proposed workshop strongly embrace both >>>>>> PAGES and CLIVAR priorities (its our hope to >>>>>> bring together both modelers and data >>>>>> people, and emphasize issues such as >>>>>> regional reconstructions, and processes, >>>>>> that are indeed of particular interest to >>>>>> the CLIVAR community). >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> I think it's better to explicitly cite this in the proposal. >>>>> >>>>>> A more detailed, formal draft proposal will, >>>>>> as I understand it, be shortly forthcoming. >>>>>> That would be a good opportunity for us to >>>>>> iterate on these details. >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Is Christoph preparing this document? Please >>>>> include Valery in contact, who needs the >>>>> formal proposal to justify WCRP funding on >>>>> this workshop. Cheers. Zhongwei >>>>> >>>>>> thoughts or comments? >>>>>> >>>>>> thanks, >>>>>> >>>>>> Mike >>>>>> >>>>>> At 09:13 AM 6/13/2005, zhongwei yan wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> Dear Andrew, Eystein, Keith and Mike >>>>>>> >>>>>>> While Christoph already confirmed the PAGES >>>>>>> support for the first workshop (PRMDIP) >>>>>>> organized by the new group, the WCRP side >>>>>>> (currently under financial pressure) posed >>>>>>> questions on funding it. Attached please >>>>>>> find a 1-page justification that I >>>>>>> abstracted from the Vision Document, which >>>>>>> you may need to improve. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> A major question is that as a whole the >>>>>>> workshop appears a quite purely PAGES >>>>>>> business. There is not much explicit >>>>>>> expression how CLIVAR-kind of science >>>>>>> (perhaps here this mainly means modeling) >>>>>>> is needed. Do you think there should be >>>>>>> some more explicit expression about >>>>>>> modelling's role in data reconstruction? >>>>>>> and how the workshop is organized to >>>>>>> realize this ? >>>>>>> >>>>>>> You may have other views anyway. Please >>>>>>> have a look at the 1-page and let me have >>>>>>> your comments. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Christoph told me that a few members will >>>>>>> gather in Bern this month discussing the >>>>>>> workshop details. When is it, Christoph? >>>>>>> Would it be possible that when you reach >>>>>>> some details, you ring directly to explain >>>>>>> to Valery (Geneva), who is in charge of >>>>>>> WCRP's funding on CLIVAR? >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Cheers, Zhongwei >>>>>>> >>>>>>> PS: here's Valery's contact details: >>>>>>> Valery Detemmerman >>>>>>> Senior Scientific Officer >>>>>>> World Climate Research Programme >>>>>>> c/o WMO >>>>>>> CP 2300 >>>>>>> 1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland >>>>>>> phone: +41 22 730 8242 >>>>>>> fax: +41 22 730 8036 >>>>>>> email: vdetemmerman@wmo.int >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> *********************************** >>>>>>> Dr. Zhongwei Yan >>>>>>> International CLIVAR Project Office >>>>>>> Southampton Oceanography Centre >>>>>>> European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Email: zxy@noc.soton.ac.uk >>>>>>> [1]http://www.clivar.org/ >>>>>>> *********************************** >>>>>>> >>>>>> ______________________________________________________________ >>>>>> ÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝ Professor Michael E. Mann >>>>>> ÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝ Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall >>>>>> ÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝ University of Virginia >>>>>> ÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝ Charlottesville, VA 22903 >>>>>> _______________________________________________________________________ >>>>>> e-mail: mann@virginia.eduÝÝ Phone: (434) 924-7770ÝÝ FAX: (434) 982-2137 >>>>>> ÝÝÝÝÝÝÝÝ [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> *********************************** >>>>> Dr. Zhongwei Yan >>>>> International CLIVAR Project Office >>>>> Southampton Oceanography Centre >>>>> European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH >>>>> >>>>> Email: zxy@noc.soton.ac.uk >>>>> [3]http://www.clivar.org/ >>>>> *********************************** >>>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>> University of East Anglia >>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>> >>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>> >>>> [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>> >>> >>> Prof. Phil Jones >>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>> NR4 7TJ >>> UK >>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >> ______________________________________________________________ >> Professor Michael E. Mann >> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall >> University of Virginia >> Charlottesville, VA 22903 >> _______________________________________________________________________ >> e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 >> [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml > > > -- > ______________________________________________________________ > Eystein Jansen > Professor/Director > Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and > Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen > Allégaten 55 > N-5007 Bergen > NORWAY > e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no > Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 > Fax: +47-55-584330 -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 103. 2005-06-14 14:10:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:10:25 +0100 from: Gerard van der Schrier subject: fingerprinting to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, Before leaving for the Netherlands, I wanted to have shown you some results of the fingerprinting work. It turns out to be a bit of a headache, I'm afraid. Following your suggestion, I use decadal averaged for the MOC/NAO and PDSI data. The amplitude of the MOC and the NAO-related signal is then estimated on the change in PDSI between consecutive decades. To get better statistics on the performance of the method, I used the trick to combine each decade with all other decades (rather than only the next in line). So the impact of MOC & NAO on the change in PDSI between e.g. decade 1700-1709 and e.g. decade 1810-1819 is then estimated. This gives 1250 different testcases. It seems that the percentage of getting the sign of the MOC right is about 50%...... Also other tests indicate that I'm not doing much better than guessing randomly. It works better for the NAO though. Tricks like regressing out the (known) NAO-signal or smoothing the response patterns (hoping to further reduce the noise) don't help much. I expected this to work better, so I may have to look at this again. There is a strong signal of the MOC on (summer) sea-ice concentration. But is mainly east of Greenland (and not near northern Scandinavia as I had hoped). Sea-ice has a strong impact on temperatures, so maybe we can use that link between terrestrial climate and MOC. Any ideas? [[[retracted 3 paragraphs: personal, family]]] I'll be back wednesday morning 22st June. Cheers, Gerard 273. 2005-06-14 14:19:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 14:19:27 -0400 from: Gabi Hegerl subject: EBM run to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, here is the EBM run averaged 0-90N. let me know if it still looks weird, it should be quite similar to what you have otherwise! and let me know if you need anything else Gabi -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html 1000.0000 -0.0043 1001.0000 -0.0070 1002.0000 -0.0082 1003.0000 -0.0412 1004.0000 -0.0586 1005.0000 -0.0449 1006.0000 -0.0325 1007.0000 -0.0336 1008.0000 -0.0337 1009.0000 -0.0252 1010.0000 -0.0188 1011.0000 -0.0156 1012.0000 -0.0153 1013.0000 -0.0165 1014.0000 -0.0186 1015.0000 -0.0215 1016.0000 -0.0248 1017.0000 -0.0285 1018.0000 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0.4603 1973.0000 0.4765 1974.0000 0.4833 1975.0000 0.4631 1976.0000 0.4827 1977.0000 0.5243 1978.0000 0.5605 1979.0000 0.5843 1980.0000 0.6160 1981.0000 0.6410 1982.0000 0.5810 1983.0000 0.4503 1984.0000 0.5014 1985.0000 0.5765 1986.0000 0.6208 1987.0000 0.6601 1988.0000 0.7040 1989.0000 0.7450 1990.0000 0.7766 1991.0000 0.7608 1992.0000 0.5735 1993.0000 0.6086 1994.0000 0.6826 1995.0000 0.7409 1996.0000 0.7888 1997.0000 0.8327 1998.0000 0.8789 1999.0000 0.9240 2000.0000 0.9654 2001.0000 1.0003 2606. 2005-06-14 15:47:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 15:47:44 +0200 from: Hugues Goosse subject: Re: IPCC AR4 model runs of last 1000 years to: Tim Osborn Dear Tim, I have an additional comment compared to our phone call yesterday. The forcing that I have send you are global mean, but aerosols and deforestation forcing are mainly occuring in the northern Hemisphere. If we use forcing for NH only, we would get a decrease of 0.5 W m-2 at least compared to global mean. This means that our forcing would be lower than the one of the GKSS model that only includes global forcings (Solar, GHG, no latitude change in volcanos). This does not change the fact that our model has a low climate sensitivity but this probably helps to analyse the figure more precisely. I have read your paper about ECHO-G and MAGICC. To my point of view, it brings some very useful information compared to the paper we have written on a similar subject. In particular, it brings some quantitative information that were out of the scope of our brief study. The first point (which was the starting point of our experiments) is that we agree that the differences between ERIK simulation and other model results is not due to the forcing used except during the last 100 years, as the forcing of ECHO-G does not include aerosols forcing. We also agree that the drift (or experimental design) is responsible for a significant part of the differences between models. Nevertheless, you suggest that the experimental design is the main source of the differences while, using a much simpler method (too simple ?), we were more in favour of a larger role of climate sensitivity after the first 250 years of the simulations. This first depends on the models that are compared. For ECBILT-CLIO that has a low sensitivity, the different climate sensitivity certainly plays a large role when results are compared to those of ECHO-G. The role of climate sensitivity is probaby weaker when ECHO-G is compared to models that have a climate snesitivity in the range 2.5-3 K. This of course also depends on the climate sensitivity of ECHO-G itself. Your analysis suggest a climate sensitivity around 2.4 while Stuber et al.'s give about 3. If I have understand well your figure 6, despite your correction, the agreement between MAGICC and adjusted ECHO-G is not perfect for the period 1050-1300. With a higher sensitivy like the one proposed by Stuber et al., you would get probably higher temperature during this period in MAGICC (and thus a better agreement with corrected ECHO-G) but then a worse agreement during some other parts of the simulation. This is more or less what we get : a reasonable scaling for low frequency variations during the pre-industrial period was not working well for the last 100 years (we were not hoping to match high frequency changes like the ones associated with volcanos). This might also be related to a different sensitivity of the ECHO-G to different forcings (like shown for instance by Gregory et al. 2004 for the HADCM3). This illustrates that indirect comparisons are difficult and uncertainties will certainly remain after any indirect comparison. Nevertheless, We probably agree that those comparisons can provide some useful information when it is not possible to use the original models because of cpu time requirements. All the best Hugues At 15:07 13/06/2005 +0100, you wrote: >Hugues, > >please see attached figure. Still in progress - more lines to add, plus >legend is incomplete. > >You were right that Crowley et al. (2003) use SO4 aerosol forcing that >reaches about -1 W/m2 by 2000. The lower value I told you comes from some >of their newer simulations! > >Your data are a dirty yellow colour. (c) shows "all other forcings" which >should include everything except volcanic and solar irradiance. You will >see that ECHO-G (red) is highest from 1850 to late 1900s, as expected >because of no SO4 cooling. But your data catch up and reach ECHO-G by >1990, despite SO4 cooling and land-use cooling. Hence your GHGs are >stronger (ECHO-G GHG was +1.8 W/m2 in 1990). They include only CO2, CH4 >and N2O. Maybe that explains it? > >Anyway, I think (hope) that everything is correct, but I would be please >if you could check that the "Goosse2005" series look right. > >Cheers > >Tim > > >At 11:18 13/06/2005, you wrote: >>Yes, it is the direct forcing applied in the model (TSI changes) not the >>forcing at the tropopause. >> >>Cheers >> >>Hugues >> >>At 09:55 13/06/2005 +0100, you wrote: >>>At 08:28 02/06/2005, you wrote: >>>>Hi Tim, >>>> >>>>I have attached the file I send to Pascale. It includes Solar forcing, >>>>volcanic forcing, >>> >>>Dear Hugues, >>> >>>a quick question - is the solar forcing the irradiance change, and thus >>>should I multiply by 0.25*(1-albedo) to convert to a forcing comparable >>>to GHG forcing? >>> >>>Cheers >>> >>>Tim >>> >>> >>> >>>Dr Timothy J Osborn >>>Climatic Research Unit >>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >>>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >>> >>>e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>>phone: +44 1603 592089 >>>fax: +44 1603 507784 >>>web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >>>sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm >> >> -------------------------------------- >>GOOSSE Hugues >>http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/users/hgs/index.html >>Institut dAstronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître >>Université catholique de Louvain , Chemin du cyclotron, 2 >>1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium >> >>e-mail: hgs@astr.ucl.ac.be > > > >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -------------------------------------- GOOSSE Hugues http://www.astr.ucl.ac.be/users/hgs/index.html Institut dAstronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître Université catholique de Louvain , Chemin du cyclotron, 2 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium e-mail: hgs@astr.ucl.ac.be 3481. 2005-06-15 12:06:26 ______________________________________________________ cc: Anders Moberg , "Deliang Chen" date: Wed Jun 15 12:06:26 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: WP4 deliverables to: alex@gvc.gu.se Dear Alex et al, The reply from Adam indicates they are not going to do anything with the extremes in the model runs, so we have a free run here. I talked to Deliang on the phone this morning and we discussed possible pieces of work over the next few months. I tried to explain something to Deliang, but not very well, so I'm elaborating here. The extreme software runs at present through station data and is based on the 1961-90 base period. You will need to modify this a little to cope with the model have 12 thirty day months and only 360 days in a year. However, in order to show the model runs more clearly when comparing with observations, I think you will need to do some experimentation with 1 or 2 of the runs. There will eventually be 6 runs with natural forcing and 6 with natural plus anthropogenic forcing. I presume that these 6 can be paired, so that one natural run and one nat+anthro run start from the same initial conditions in 1869. If this is the case then the 1961-90 base period should be used from one of these runs and the extremes calculated (with the other pair using the same thresholds). Which of the pair to use to calculate the thresholds is a difficult choice. I would suggest you try the nat+anthro one first. This way the thresholds and counts should be more similar to the real world than the nat only one. We can then plot time series of differences between the pair of runs and see the anthro component more easily. If Anders can't understand this once I've sent it I will try and elaborate. Adam's point about the runs from 1949 makes some sense, but I would first see how long it is going to take you to push the model data through the adapted software. The long runs are more important. In order to avoid problems later, we should all look at the output of the first pair in a little detail to make sure all is OK, before moving on the the other members of the ensemble. Cheers Phil At 08:06 15/06/2005, Alexander Walther wrote: Hi Phil, Yes, applying the extremes routine on the model runs is included in our plans. I'm currently downloading the model runs. As soon as the data are "available" and readable for me, I will run the routine. I think this could be done within the next four weeks. I guess Deliang has promised anyway to present some results based on the GCM data. So let's keep in touch on this. I think there is a need for some discussion (E.g. area of interest to be extracted from the GCM, focus on certain indices etc.). I'm in contact with Anders anyway. I think we'll find a suitable Agenda. best regards westward Alex Phil Jones wrote: Dear Adam and Alex, Anders Moberg is in CRU this week and we are working on some of the WP4 deliverables. We are making good progress on D14 (observed changes in extremes since the late 19th century). We've been thinking about D15 and D16. Anders will email Jucundus, Paul and Alex about D15, but this is about D16 (assessment of the likelihood of any anthropogenic influence in extremes). The question to you, Adam, is the HC going to do any work on this deliverable (D16)? One possible aspect we can look at over the next few months is to compare the time series of the indices across Europe from the model runs. The question to Alex is, have you yet considered running the extremes software through the longer model integrations. I think it is only worthwhile to use the runs that begin in 1869 and run to 2001/2. From David Fereday's email of a week or so ago, roughly half of the runs are there now, 3 of 6 all forcings and 4 of 6 natural runs. I've cc'd David to check that natural runs include solar and volcanoes? Hopefully whilst Anders is here you can give a few minutes thought to what you might be doing on D16 over the next few months (up to the Paris meeting in October). Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- *************************** Alexander Walther Earth Sciences Centre Göteborg University Box 460 S-405 60 Göteborg, Sweden --------------------------- Fon: (+46)-31-7734849 Fax: (+46)-31-7731986 [1]http://www.gvc.gu.se/rcg *************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 746. 2005-06-15 15:54:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jun 15 15:54:12 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] comments to 6.3.2.1 (mainly for Keith) to: Tim Osborn X-Sender: nglej@pop.uib.no Date: Mon, 10 Jan 2005 18:01:42 +0100 To: Keith Briffa , David Rind , wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu From: Eystein Jansen Subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] comments to 6.3.2.1 (mainly for Keith) X-checked-clean: by exiscan on noralf X-Scanner: 86c2b4d1c5e6d442895e9f35c939dd37 [1]http://tjinfo.uib.no/virus.html X-UiB-SpamFlag: NO UIB: 0.0 hits, 11.0 required X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Hi, interesting discussion on an important topic. If space is the limiting factor we may have to evaluate whether to cut back on less central issues elswhere in the chapter. We will to a large extent be judged on how we tackle the hockey stick, sensitivity, unprecedented 20th century warming isuues in view of palaeo, and if a slight expansion is what it takes to do this properly, then I am sympathetic to that (without having heard Peck on the issue). Cheers, Eystein At 16:32 +0000 10-01-05, Keith Briffa wrote: thanks David have to say that it is very difficult to say much in the minimal space - and we really need a page to discuss the problems in the reconstruction and and interpretation of the various forcings in different models - I am just going to put this down in an over abbreviated way and ask for specific corrections for you and Stefan et al. The detail perhaps depends on what the final Figure looks like and Tim is trying to put it together but lots of weird and interesting stuff / questions arise as we do - especially relating to past estimates of solar irradiance used by different people. At 15:29 10/01/2005, David Rind wrote: (I tried to send this earlier and it got hung up; apologies if it eventually gets through and you get a second version.) Well, yes and no. If the mismatch between suggested forcing, model sensitivity, and suggested response for the LIA suggests the forcing is overestimated (in particular the solar forcing), then it makes an earlier warm period less likely, with little implication for future warming. If it suggests climate sensitivity is really much lower, then it says nothing about the earlier warm period (could still have been driven by solar forcing), but suggests future warming is overestimated. If however it implies the reconstructions are underestimating past climate changes, then it suggests the earlier warm period may well have been warmer than indicated (driven by variability, if nothing else) while suggesting future climate changes will be large. This is the essence of the problem. David At 9:28 AM +0000 1/10/05, Keith Briffa wrote: THanks Stefan At 21:13 07/01/2005, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: Keith, some comments added in the text for the past millennium, plus I wrote some extra sentences on the implications of the dispute (repeated below). Hope it is useful, Stefan Note that the major differences between the proxy reconstructions and between the model simulations for the past millennium occur for the cool periods in the 17th-19th Centuries; none of these reconstructions or models suggests that there was a warmer period than the late 20th Century in the record. A larger amplitude of preindustrial natural climate variability does not imply a smaller anthropogenic contribution to 20th Century warming (which is estimated from 20th Century data, see Chapter XXX on attribution), nor does it imply a smaller sensitivity of climate to CO2, or a lesser projected warming for the future. -- Stefan Rahmstorf <[2]http://www.ozean-klima.de>[3]www.ozean-klima.de [4]www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu [5]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu [7]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu [8]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu [10]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ----------------------- The Bjerknes Training site offers 3-12 months fellowships to PhD students More info at: [11]www.bjerknes.uib.no/mcts ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [12]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 346. 2005-06-15 16:13:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jun 15 16:13:36 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Fwd: updated MWP figure to: Eystein Jansen Eystein tried phoning on your mobile - no luck - Don't like this Figure , but still having trouble working on ours. Have cut large bits out of my text and suggestions for cutting other bits , but will be a little late sending these bits. Can you ring to discuss (and IMPRINT) tomorrow ? Keith At 06:28 15/06/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, enclosed for your consideration. Eystein Envelope-to: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 15:13:28 -0400 From: Tom Crowley X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: J Overpeck , "Jansen, Eystein " , Tim Osborn Subject: updated MWP figure X-checked-clean: by exiscan on alf X-UiB-SpamFlag: NO UIB: 0 hits, 8.0 required X-UiB-SpamReport: spamassassin found; Hello, I have been fiddling with the best way to illustrate the stable nature of the medieval warm period - the attached plot has eight sites that go from 946-1960 in decadal std. dev. units - although small in number there is a good geographic spread -- four are from the w. hemisphere, four from the east. I also plot the raw composite of the eight sites and scale it to the 30-90N decadal temp. record. this record illustrates how the individual sites are related to the composite and also why the composite has no dramatically warm MWP -- there is no dramatically warm clustering of the individual sites. use or lose as you wish, tom -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2499. 2005-06-16 09:58:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar,Eystein Jansen ,jto@u.arizona.edu,Tim Osborn date: Thu Jun 16 09:58:11 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Fwd: NH Borehole Timeseries to: hpollack@umich.edu Henry thanks for this . There will be problems reducing the overall text and in so doing trying to avoid too simplistic/stark statements , or making implications that were not intended. The borehole section is too technical and long and will have to be shortened, perhaps(?) with some text moved to a "Supplementary Section" still not decided. The problem is that the proportional allotment of space re. multi-proxies, GST, simulations, (and especially the regional section (which should /might contain SH temperatures and , large scale precip. - necessarily very briefly if at all) will have to be thrashed out but ultimately decided by Peck and Eystein - obviously with interaction with all of us. Hence , we need your input and I will send the text as it is soon. Ricardo is still working on the last (Regional section) and we are struggling here to get the Figures the way we want them. Can I ask if there is an equivalent SH GST curve as for the north - we were considering (though are now not likely ) to show one - but wanted to know anyway. Thanks Keith At 14:32 15/06/2005, you wrote: FYI Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2005 13:53:37 -0400 From: Henry Pollack To: Tim Osborn Cc: Jason Smerdon Subject: NH Borehole Timeseries User-Agent: Internet Messaging Program (IMP) H3 (4.0.3) X-Remote-Browser: Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 6.0; Windows NT 5.1; SV1; .NET CLR 1.1.4322) X-IMP-Server: 141.211.144.92 X-Originating-IP: 141.211.197.134 X-Originating-User: X-Spam-Score: 2.5 X-Spam-Level: ++ X-Spam-Flag: NO Hi Tim, Attached is the Northern Hemisphere timeseries for the boreholes, an area- weighted average from a five-degree grid. It includes a mean reconstruction and two uncertainty timeseries representing +/- 1 standard error. We have referenced the series to the zero crossing of the NH SAT (total). This is after the Moberg et al. paper in which the crossing year was determined to be 1958.5. That reference for the SAT data is: Jones, P.D. and A. Moberg, Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Clim. 16, 206223 (2003). The reference for the borehole reconstruction is Pollack & Smerdon (2004). If you and Keith are using another subset (land only?) or version of the SAT data please send us the year of the zero-crossing of the 20th-century SAT trend in the dataset you are using. We can reference from there accordingly. Let me or Jason know if you have any questions. I am leaving for Australia next week and Jason is also traveling a little, so please let us know ASAP if you need something different. Cheers, Henry Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4472. 2005-06-16 10:00:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: Ronald Stouffer , Alan Robock , Norman Grody date: Thu Jun 16 10:00:01 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Trends paper again/ it is for JGR now to: Konstantin Vinnikov Kostya, I have looked at the paper and I don't have many comments. Can you always keep to two decimal places for the trends, so in the abstract say 0.20 +/- 0.10 if that is what it is? This also occurs later in the text as well. The trend Mears and Wentz get for their lower tropospheric series is +0.193 degC per decade. Their error is +/- 0.045 deg C decade, but this is 1SE. I presume yours is 2SE, which makes the error estimates very close. Mears and Wentz use the period 1979-2003. As you might have expected UAH are redoing their analysis for their 2LT. They are closer to the others now for 2LT at 0.115 degC/decade. The attached paper should be referred to briefly (on p4) as Fu has started to use this approach with Ch 3, but this can only be done since 1987. With JGR submission you need to be careful who you suggest to review or not review the manuscript. I will leave this to you, but it might be worth suggesting Fu and someone at RSS, but not UAH. I am being asked to review about 4 times as many papers as normal over the past few months - at least I can't get this one ! Cheers Phil At 14:12 14/06/2005, Konstantin Vinnikov wrote: Dear Phil, This is not important, but, the satellites at polar orbits are slowing very slow. You cannot see it. The observed change in the equator crossing time of NOAA satellites is periodic one as it has been shown in Ignatov et al. (2004) which is missed in our reference list. I will check all our references later. As for Mears et al. new paper, as far as I know, there is an extremely strong pressure on Science to publish it immediately. I feel that I have a conflict of interest and cannot be objective on this subject because our paper with the mostly the same results has been rejected. But I should not complain, our paper is much better now. Norman and I worked really hard all this time and were able to improve our satellite data and trend estimates. Kostya ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dr. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov Office: (301) 405-5382 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Home: (301) 779-2970 University of Maryland Fax: (301) 314-9482 College Park, MD 20742 kostya@atmos.umd.edu On Tue, 14 Jun 2005, Phil Jones wrote: > > Kostya, > I will look at the paper, but have visitors here this week, so may not > get to it > until the weekend. I will get comments to you by Monday at the latest. > Ron is being > very brief about the sign error the UAH people have in their series. RSS have > a paper in submission to Science and they get a trend of their MSU2LT > (produced > a little different from UAH) of +0.19 deg C per decade for > 1979-2004. Our surface > is +0.17 deg C per decade. > UAH have their diurnal cycle adjustment for satellite slowing, in > with the wrong sign. > Christy has sent me his latest revision. They now get a warming of 2LT of > +0.12 deg C > per decade - closer but still lower. If you changed their NOAA-9 factor > two would > almosr agree. Keep quiet about all this for a few months yet. > > I'm assuming none of this affects your work as you go back to the raw > radiances. > > The field is rapidly changing - almost by the week. So it would be > good to get your > paper off asap. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 04:32 14/06/2005, Ronald Stouffer wrote: > > >HI Kostya, > > > >I am visiting PCMDI and just talked with Ben. He said that Christy has a > >sign error in their MSU 2LT computation. He said that they are are in > >the process of redoing their calculations and that the error had to do > >with their diurnal cycle correction. T'is interesting... > > > >I will try to read your paper on my way home (Wed). > >-Ron > > > >----- Original Message ----- > >From: Konstantin Vinnikov > >Date: Monday, June 13, 2005 7:01 pm > >Subject: Trends paper again/ it is for JGR now > > > > > Dear Ron and Phil, > > > > > > Norman and I finished new version of our Trends paper. It is too > > > long now, so it is going to be submitted to JGR-Atmosphere. This > > > Journalis chosen because related paper on Calibration technique > > > (Grody et al., > > > 2004) is published in JGR. > > > > > > A lot of new material is added on satellite data, on diurnal cycle in > > > free atmosphere, on time series of tropospheric temperature. But, > > > SurfaceTemperature and Model sections are the same as they were in > > > the Nature > > > version. There is no sense to use different models and forcings, > > > because(1) this will not change result, and because (2), as far as > > > I know, such > > > work has been done by Santer (not published, yet). > > > > > > I would be happy to know your opinion about current version of the > > > paper. > > > Alan is going to work on this manuscript in a few days. So, it > > > would be > > > great if you send your comments and corrections soon. > > > > > > Thank you. Kostya > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > Dr. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov Office: (301) 405-5382 > > > Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Home: (301) 779-2970 > > > University of Maryland Fax: (301) 314-9482 > > > College Park, MD 20742 kostya@atmos.umd.edu > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4867. 2005-06-16 15:11:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 16 15:11:01 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: An idea to: "Michael E. Mann" Mike, I will reply to Yasmine and say no tomorrow. Don't want to do it too soon. Keith and I and Tim have been having loads of discussions about Ch 6 for IPCC. Keith has to submit his latest draft tomorrow for better for worse. What I'm thinking is that sometime when the three of us here have some spare time - which may be some ways off, we'd like to do some experiments with different proxy combinations. Would you be happy sending us all the proxies you have (or Scott - the rookie) is putting together? If so can you arrange it. There is no rush. We won't pass any on or put on web sites etc. If we ever did get some time then we could do something - it will be slowly, not for this IPCC and unlikely to get written up or started until well into 2006. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1877. 2005-06-16 16:06:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 16 16:06:33 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: a ps to: Tom Crowley Tom, I meant to add that the data will not go beyond this building and will not be on any ftp site. We're having a few problems in CRU at the moment with people looking through our site for station temperature and precipitation data. We're logging some unusual visitors ! Also, touch wood, I think I've resolved payments with PNL. Nathan has got a check and I'm hopeful mine may arrive soon. Thanks for yours and Gabi's help. Anjuli got them moving. What they are now doing is what I asked them to do initially ..... Glad to see the IDAG paper out also. Cheers Phil Tom, Email Keith for the data in a week or so. He is struggling to make an IPCC deadline for the paleo chapter. Keith, Tim and me would like to do some work on the paleo series over the next 12-18 months. Timeframe is difficult as we don't have much quality time because of numerous deadlines. To do something we'd like to get all the proxy series you have used for the last 1K-2K years as you originally got them. Would you be willing to send us what you have? No rush as we won't be starting anything for ages. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3945. 2005-06-16 18:43:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 16 Jun 2005 18:43:23 -0300 from: "Ricardo Villalba" subject: Greetings from Mendoza to: "Edward R. Cook" , "Keith Briffa" Dear Ed, Hope everything is going fine at LDEO. Together with Keith Briffa and other folks, we are collaborating in the elaboration of the new IPPC Assessment. Keith is intensively working on the Northern Hemisphere records and he asked me to compile all the available information on temperature reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere since the IPCC Third Assessment in year 2001. The S.H. section should be very brief as regards text, and possibly have a Figure incorporated as part of "Regional Changes" or "The past 2000 years" sections. Please, find attached a file containing a couple of paragraphs on temperature variations in the SH and a tentative figure. As you will note, I incorporate the New Zealand temperature reconstruction from the figure in your GRL paper. I do not have the actual data. At this point, I kindly ask you to check the attached text to see if I am missing some vital piece of information on the SH since IPCC third Assessment. I would also appreciate a digital copy of the New Zealand temperature reconstruction to properly be included in the Figure. Keith also wants to know if you are willing to collaborate in the incorporation of your beautiful work on the North American PDSI reconstruction in the Assessment. Final decision on the material to be included in the Assessment depends on the coordinators of the chapter (Overpeck and Jansen) but we are trying to include as much information on tree rings as we can. Ed, thanks in advance for your help. Cheers, Ricardo > Ricardo > just to confirm my feeling that the S.H. section should be very brief as > regards text (but incorporated definitely in 2000 year section) , and > possibly have Figure incorporated as part of "Regional Changes" section - > at present unclear where this goes - probably eventually better as part of > 2000 year section also. I am expecting you (with Ed ) to rewrite the SH > section, Large scale drought and regional section , with prescribed length > restrictions. > Keith > > At 14:32 03/06/2005, ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar wrote: > >Dear Keith, Peck and Eystein > > As we agreed in Beijing, I am sending for your consideration a figure > >with the most relevant information on high-resolution records in the > >Southern Hemisphere since TAR. The figure includes the New Zealand > >(Oroco Swamp) and Tasmania (updated 2000) reconstructions by Ed Cook, and > >our new temperature reconstructions for northern and southern Patagonia > >(2003). I am working on a pair of short paragraphs highlighting the most > >important features in these reconstructions. > >As we also agreed, I am reviewing all the ENSO+NAO+AO+AAO in the ZOD to > >avoid repetitions and dispersion of this information across the Chapter. > >In the Beijing meeting I got the impression that this information would > >show up at the end of the section on The last 2000 years, but in the new > >outline from Peck and Eystein I saw that my all section (6.5.4) on Modes > >of variability still is there. However I note, that they also have > >included in section 6.5.4 Regional climate extremes over the last 2000 > >years. Do you have in mind how to proceed with the regional extreme > >events? > >Best regards, > >Ricardo > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Southern hemisphere.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SHregteml1.JPG" 777. 2005-06-17 16:27:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jun 17 16:27:12 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Natural Climate Variability to: "Joel Smith" Dear Joel, Seems as though you ought to send me the RFP whatever that is ! I am away the week after next (June27-Jul1), but hear for most of the rest of the summer. I should say that I am very busy at the moment with the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC - I'm a Convening Lead Author. Much of what you are planning will be reported in this Assessment, which has yet to go through an open and a Govt review process, so will not be out until early 2007. There will be two meetings yet of the IPCC chapter authors, and lots of writing and editing involved, so a lot of the key people who would need to be involved are very busy. There are a number of other initiatives taking place in the US as well in the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), so, what I'm saying is that your initiative is running in parallel with a lot of other things. Many are looking at the same sort of issues as you want to. Once I've looked at the RFP perhaps we could talk. Cheers Phil At 15:56 17/06/2005, you wrote: Dr. Jones: The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in the US is interested in sponsoring a workshop to review the state of knowledge on natural climate variability. EPRI is interested in this partly to help get a better handle on the attribution matter. They're not doubting the contribution of anthropogenic influences on climate. Nonetheless, as we look more at attribution, e.g., estimating the role of anthropogenic forcings at the regional scale and for specific extreme climate events, it is important to improve our understanding of natural variability. In addition, if there is movement to eventually set a global mean temperature target for climate change, then understanding the range of natural variability is even more critical. EPRI would like to put out an RFP to those who might be interested in organizing a workshop. The goal of the workshop would be to review the state of knowledge on natural climate variability, assess how well the climate models are capturing it, and define a research agenda. I am wondering if you or someone from your group might be interested in organizing such a workshop? The workshop does not need to be in the U.S. We'd be happy to send the RFP to you, when it is ready to go. I'd be happy to supply more information or call you (although I am out most of next week.) yours, Joel Smith Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. P.O. Box 4059 Boulder, CO 80306-4059 USA Tel: 1-303-381-8218 Fax: 1-303-381-8200 jsmith@stratusconsulting.com [1]www.stratusconsulting.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2950. 2005-06-17 16:34:14 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jun 17 16:34:14 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Natural Climate Variability to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, I know what EPRI is and what they've done in the past. No idea what an RFP is though. Said very busy with IPCC and it and some CCSP initiatives are looking at these issues. Point of emailing is have you heard of the person or the organization? A brief scan of their web site suggests they seem reasonable - consultants - more on the impact and energy sectors. Where they got my name from I have no idea. Cheers Phil Subject: Natural Climate Variability Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 08:56:02 -0600 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Natural Climate Variability Thread-Index: AcVzTK3tLzI0rnCBRxClTJn+D8YTdw== From: "Joel Smith" To: X-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-Spam-Level: / X-Spam-Flag: NO Dr. Jones: The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in the US is interested in sponsoring a workshop to review the state of knowledge on natural climate variability. EPRI is interested in this partly to help get a better handle on the attribution matter. They're not doubting the contribution of anthropogenic influences on climate. Nonetheless, as we look more at attribution, e.g., estimating the role of anthropogenic forcings at the regional scale and for specific extreme climate events, it is important to improve our understanding of natural variability. In addition, if there is movement to eventually set a global mean temperature target for climate change, then understanding the range of natural variability is even more critical. EPRI would like to put out an RFP to those who might be interested in organizing a workshop. The goal of the workshop would be to review the state of knowledge on natural climate variability, assess how well the climate models are capturing it, and define a research agenda. I am wondering if you or someone from your group might be interested in organizing such a workshop? The workshop does not need to be in the U.S. We'd be happy to send the RFP to you, when it is ready to go. I'd be happy to supply more information or call you (although I am out most of next week.) yours, Joel Smith Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. P.O. Box 4059 Boulder, CO 80306-4059 USA Tel: 1-303-381-8218 Fax: 1-303-381-8200 jsmith@stratusconsulting.com [1]www.stratusconsulting.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 569. 2005-06-17 20:31:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,hpollack@umich.edu,joos@climate.unibe.ch, rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de,drind@giss.nasa.gov,tcrowley@duke.edu date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 20:31:11 +0100 from: Keith Briffa subject: First draft of FOD to: jto@u.arizona.edu,eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Peck and Eystein one day after the deadline only! attached in separate emails (only to you two - for integration and distribution) is the text and 2 Figures for the 2000 year section. I have included the last part (in green) as sent (I believe in preliminary form) by Ricardo (this is in green to indicate that I have not tried to edit it until Ricardo and others are ready- though I think it may be too large already - but see later). The section presently in blue, must (I think) be taken out (either to be put in supplementary information - as could other sections that I have actually taken out of the ZOD already - or dumped. I will not work on this assumption yet in case it will not happen). I have put in a bulleted summary section at the end (not including regional bullets) - please consider these as my contribution to the potential new bullets). We will have to see where the SH section Ricardo is writing with Ed Cook will go - no matter how brief I belive this has to go in - the large-scale moisture stuff from the ZOD has gone from this draft also and, if retained in some form, will have to go in the regional section also - as will monsoon if we have it - I do not see how this will can be accomplished without very heavy editing of this section (happy to help with this when appropriate). I have tried to incorporate all comments received on ZOD , while putting in the degree of detail I thought necessary about the most important stuff as I see it - given the severe space constraint I realise this needs further pruning but it will mean cutting flesh. David,Stefan, Fortunat and Henry and Tom Crowley's comments are essential now (we agreed to add Tom as CA in Beijing). Henry will need to help in paring down the GST citations where possible (hope he understands my attempts to revise his section while trying to keep all interested parties opinion's in mind). I particularly need feedback soon on the Figures - which Tim has worked heroically on (as well as helping me with text) for the past weeks. We believe we have come up with a great solution to a really difficult job of conveying a massive amount of information in these , clearly. Note the expanding time scale on the reconstruction Figure - and our way of showing the "average " confidence limits (*1.5) . This information is then transferred , after adjustment to another base period, to the simulations Figure . At least , the lower part of this must have a great chance of making the SFP. I am not sure how much space this text will take up after you reformat, but the Figures and associated legends should be allocated their own 2 pages. I am here for the next 2 weeks at least and ready to interact with yourselves and others regarding the next steps - especially for the regional section - but we need strong direction from The CLAs ( and the uncensored opinions of the LAs and CLAs on the current content and priorities . Over to you now -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 3011. 2005-06-20 10:58:19 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Tett, Simon" , philip.brohan@metoffice.gov.uk,"Keith Briffa" date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 10:58:19 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: RE: Palaeo reconstructions to: "Jenkins, Geoff" Dear Geoff, well of course Defra can do as they like, but the 3 alternative figures all have problems: (1) they all show results from Moberg et al. (2005) which we have criticised in a response to Nature (which Nature have declined to publish, on the grounds that it was too technical) and which Philip Brohan at the Hadley Centre has also criticised. I have cc'd this to Philip in case he wishes to share his criticisms with you. The basic complaint is that the low resolution proxies, which entirely determine the long-term variations shown by the Moberg series, have not been properly calibrated and thus the long-term curve cannot be accepted as representing "degrees C". (2) As the blue uncertainty ranges clearly show, this also has narrower uncertainties near 1000 AD than in the "Little Ice Age". So if they are unhappy that the figure you drew from my advice shows this same behaviour, why would they be happy with the Moberg figures. (3) The uncertainty ranges given for the MBH reconstruction look wrong to me - compare with Fig 2.21 of IPCC TAR. Maybe it can be explained by different smoothing/filtering or different reference period, or maybe it can't. Finally I would add that, on reflection, there are actually four reasons why the envelope narrowed near 1000 AD: (1) The reason I gave before (fewer reconstructions from which to define the envelope). (2) There is some proxy data that is common to almost all the reconstructions (thus they aren't all independent) and the proportion of this common data is greater in the earlier parts of the series (thus there is even less independence near 1000 AD). (3) The envelope of reconstructions, nor any of the uncertainty ranges associated with individual reconstructions, represent the full uncertainty - in particular, very few include uncertainty due to the deterioration of proxy data back in time (e.g., some tree-ring chronologies comprise of fewer actual tree cores further back). (4) Some aspects of the uncertainty are actually reduced in the 1000-1100 period compared with the "Little Ice Age". It seems that many of the uncertainties and potential biases are compounded when reconstructing values that are further from the calibration period mean (usually 20th century mean). Thus the "Little Ice Age" values are perhaps truly more uncertain than the 1000-1100 values, because the latter are nearer to the 20th century level. Therefore perhaps the narrowing of the uncertainty range early on in these figures is correct (unless this point (4) is dominated by points (1-3)). Hope this helps. Perhaps Defra would like to fund us to give them some advice on these issues (or even a small, critical study), instead of getting the advice for free? :-) Cheers Tim At 14:50 16/06/2005, Jenkins, Geoff wrote: >Tim > >Sorry to did all this up again, but Defra arent happy with the figure we >came up with on your advice, showing the envalope of all >reconstructions. The reason is the point (3) you made below, ie it looks >like uncertainties are smaller earlier on. Despite making this point in >the text, Defra would prefer to use suomething else and suggest one of >the figs from Moburg et al. Hence I have included a couple of >alternatives with text attached (plus the old one for comparison). I >would be really grateful if you could let me have your advice on which >of these you think is the more acceptable. > >Thanks > >Geoff > >(3) It might also be worth saying that the apparent narrowing of the >range >in the first 2 centuries isn't because of smaller uncertainties, but >rather >because of few reconstructions from which to define the "envelope". Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 3397. 2005-06-20 14:48:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: Sandy.Harrison@bristol.ac.uk date: Mon, 20 Jun 2005 14:48:55 +0200 from: Fortunat Joos subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC FOD : Holocene section to: Valerie.Masson@cea.fr Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by thunder.joss.ucar.edu id j5KCnmui025954 Dear Valerie, Attached suggestions and revision for the Holocene section. I have slightly expanded on Ruddiman taking into account the most recent literature. I have also updated the GHG figure, now showing also radiative forcing relative to 1765 conditions on a linear scale. The references for the GHG data are all given on top of the data files that I sent to you for the ZOD. Please let me know if I need to resend. The NOAA data (butler, conway, dlugokencky) are personal communications. With best wishes, Fortunat Valérie Masson-Delmotte wrote: > Dear all, > > Please find attached a new sketch for the FOD section on the Holocene - > it has to be finalised before June 15th, and figures must be finished > before June 1st (you can see the tracked changes from the ZOD version). > > I have modified the structure to include the modelling part (incl. text > from Chapter 9), the suggestions by the reviewers, and something about > interannual variability from the previous last section of the ZOD. I > need to reprocess all the text + references, modify the labelling of the > sections (new structure of the chapter). The references are not totally > inside the attached Endnote database but most of them are already. > > I have several requests for many of you : > > - Fortunat : you kindly offered to provide me with a xmgr figure showing > the Holocene GHG evolution, so ... this will be fine. > - Dick : can you update the description of ice sheet evolution during > the early Holocene (e.g. precise volume of ice caps at 10k, 8k, 6k, > dates of disappearance of Laurentide and Fennoscandia) > - Bettie : can you go through the modelling part (especially what I > called : what do we learn from equlibrium simulations) and improve it + > provide the table > - Eystein, Stefan : where does the 8.2 event go? In the previous section > on glacial interglacial time scale + rapid events or in the Holocene > section on rapid events? > - Dominik : can you please have a look at this terrible draft and > contact me to discuss the tropical precip figure + text ? > - Daniel, Ricardo, Ramesh, Peck : can you please send me what you think > are the most relevant data to illustrate the abrupt changes in tropical > precip (data + location of records latitude, longitude + references, if > possible in Endnote format on a separated file if you already have it) > - Peck : can you ask Julie to have a look at the last section (ENSO) and > update the refs to coral works? > - Sandy : can you have a look at the biome sections (introduction + warm > early Holocene +¨equilibrum runs sections) and improve them? > > The total (text + figures) should be about the right length after > rewriting, I think. > > If you rewrite some of the text can you please send it in a separate > word file (not correct this version?) > > Sincerely, > > Valerie. > > _______________________________________________ > Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list > Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu > http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- --- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\masson_FOD-VMD-2_revfjoos_19jun05.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 5167. 2005-06-21 10:06:20 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jun 21 10:06:20 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: This and That to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, I am here all of July from the 5th. We probably need to make a new list of figures we think are in the text and those we think we will add. We then need to get all the figures into a file. On July 5 I could begin this with David's figures for 3.2. I believe these to be good enough for the FOD. I will send a reminder to all on Friday - mainly Dave E about Figures. Also about getting pdfs and updating references. So, have a look through what I send on Friday next week and we'll pick the whole thing up on July 5. Cheers Phil At 15:06 20/06/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil Glad to hear of more progress. Of course 4th July is a major holiday here so, not much likely then. We set end of the month for figures. So what I would like to see us begin is a new version of the figure section. I should have a bunch of new figs from Dennis. I have some already. However, I am not fully sure whether the list of Figs and the figs referenced in main doc are compatible? I was going to suggest that you and I both go thru the figs independently and fill in with new ones where appropriate? However you could have first crack if you wish: update all the ones from David and send a reminder to Easterling and his programmer. Note we need to use the fig from Jim not Bromwich on geopot trends. I need to go over 3.4 completely. But I am around most of July: a few obligations and some golf! Cheers Kevin > >> Kevin, > Spent much of the weekend on the chapter. Still to add comments > in on some sections as I was trying to give it a more laid back read > through. > > Have sent a revised 3.8 to Albert - hardly any changes to your parts, > but a > lot to his. He says he will send his comments back by Thursday. > > I plan to send a revised version of all on Friday (5pm here) and then > I'm away > the following week - back in on July 5. I'll remind a number of many > things still > missing. I'm adding papers to 3.8, but have most of the pdfs. We need to > get > all to go through their sections and send pdfs and update the reference > list. > I seem to have added more submitted ones than we added page numbers for > in the last round. > > Most of the time I can get will be devoted to 3.3, but I need to add > in changes I noticed to 3.5-3.7. > > I will combine the two PDSI bits (3.8.3.3 with 3.3.4) and put the > revised section > in 3.3.4. It seems more appropriate there and there was some repetition. > > Cheers > Phil > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 934. 2005-06-21 15:17:51 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jun 21 15:17:51 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Moberg paper to: "Brohan, Philip" Philip I do agree with your sentiments here - and if it proves possible , would like to be involved , along I am sure with Tim. We have as you know , been thinking along the same lines (in terms of the apparent differences in many reconstructions being due to the specific choice of regression method - rather than fundamental different signal in the selected proxy predictors). We intend ,still to do some work to illustrate this , largely stimulated by your contributions in a couple of the SOAP meetings. It now transpires that Gabbi Hegerl and Tom Crowley (along with Myles Allen and Henry Pollack and Eduardo ) have yet another NH reconstruction (using many data in common with various existing reconstructions , and heavily biased towards tree-ring data) , calibrated using a total least squares approach applied to regional , decadally-smoothed predictors, and subsequently seemingly coinciding with the Pollack Ground Surface temperature reconstruction (Pollack and Smerdon ) and the ECHO-G simulation- suggesting a much larger amplitude of temperature change (warming) over the last 500 years than many other reconstructions. In case you have not seen this , I attach it (please treat Hegerl et al. paper as confidential). Obviously this approach (smoothing and TLS) gives larger amplitude change than simple least squares on interannual data - and re-calibrating other reconstructions in the same way would demonstrate this. We have been working for a while trying to recreate the Esper et al series , which originally used many of the data Hegerl/Crowley use, smoothed and simply adjusted to match the mean and standard deviation of the Mann et al series originally , and then later re-calibrated against smoothed temperature data by Cook et al. Our purpose was to discuss a likely flaw in the logic of the tree-ring standardisation in the first instance and then show the potential for the final reconstruction to be biased through time, according to the changing constituent series in the single mean tree-ring predictor. It turns out that the method they actuallly used does not corespond to the description in the papers - but they include a re-normalisation step before producing the mean predictor , that mitigates much of the problem. I will not go on about this here though. The conclusion of this work though , is that the final reconstruction amplitude is extremely sensitive to the scaling method and period used. As we discussed in Reading , it is becoming the accepted practise to sacrifice any formal regression validation (and any chance to realistically gage the validity of the regression estimates ) for the sake of getting large low-frequency variance in the reconstruction - Moberg's work exemplifies this. There is a special PAGES/CLIVAR workshop being organised to address these exact same issues - as well as the approaches to testing reconstruction methodology using model simulations. This will be held in Switzerland next year and we (you and us etc) could work towards this as a medium-term goal , as well as a more immediate response to Moberg. Best wishes Keith At 11:52 20/06/2005, you wrote: Keith That's not good news, and I'm surprised as well as disappointed to hear it. The errors in the Moberg paper were evident to quite a few different people on first reading and I thought the Mann et al. comment explained them pretty well. The problems with the MOBERG paper stem from incorrect use of statistical regression. It is not the only paper to use regression incorrectly. I now believe that many of the differences in paleo-temperature reconstructions come from differences in regression methods and are due to different (implicit) assumptions about the errors in the paleo and instrumental temperature series. And also that by making those assumptions explicit we can show that some reconstructions are better than others. So rather than write a specific critique of Moberg et al, I'd like to write a more general paper on methodological differences. Perhaps a specific comment on the MOBERG method could be built into that. Philip On Fri, 2005-06-17 at 10:12, Keith Briffa wrote: > Philip et al. > don't know if you know , but the Comment by Mann et al. , dicussing the > Moberg methodology will not be published now. Nature considered it > unwarranted to include the simulation evidence - but would perhaps of > allowed some other brief remarks which Mike and the rest of us decided did > not justify publication - apparently he is including some of the content in > a revised paper (J.Climate) which was originally a response to the von > Storch work. I still consider it important that something from a wider > group is published giving an indication at least that there are problems > with Moberg's approach - note also the inconsistency in the timing of the > (premature) warming in the 20th century in his record (apparently > associated with the rigidity of the wavelet approach they used). Their > reconstruction is the only one giving apparent evidence of a warmer > Medieval period , and may also be highlighted in a DEFRA document that > Geoff Jenkins is the contact for! > Could/should you consider resurrecting the comment , or should we consider > more comparisons of his method using the ECH-G data and writing a paper? > Keith > > > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Philip Brohan, Climate Scientist Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Tel: +44 (0)1392 884574 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://www.hadobs.org -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3353. 2005-06-22 16:39:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jun 22 16:39:15 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: [Fwd: esper] to: Tom Wigley Tom sorry , but Examiners meeting kept me out of office all day - no easy answer - but basically smoothed data and simple rescaling (not regression) against smoothed Man curve produces this amplitude - been working a while to explain the anomalous cold implied by Esper curve in first half of first millennium (but turns out they did not do what the paper says) - now 2 other series show large amplitude also to do with selection and method of scaling - can I call to discuss on phone as have to go now and no time to type this ? When good time to call you ? Malcolm Hughes here tomorrow and I have to leave about 3 pm.also. Have to rush now to pick up Kirsten and rescue car from garage Keith At 21:29 20/06/2005, you wrote: Sorry to bug you, but I am being pressured on this. Have you had time to think it over?? Thanks for your help. Tom. =========== -------- Original Message -------- Subject: esper Date: Tue, 14 Jun 2005 10:18:57 -0600 From: Tom Wigley [1] Organization: NCAR/CGD To: Keith Briffa [2], Phil Jones [3], Tim Osborn [4], Caspar Ammann [5] CC: Peter Foukal [6] Guys, No doubt you have thought through this, but what particular choice of input proxies makes the Esper curve in 1600-50 different from others (see attached)? What is interesting is that Keith's curve is the only other one to show this. Briffa and Esper also are similar for dips around 1350, 1470, 1820 -- so I presume they have data in common that is not expressed in the other curves. I note, however, that Briffa and Esper are opposite in the second half of the 17th century. Any idea why there is this contrast with the early 17th century? I realize that Esper is made up of different bits -- but it does have some very odd behavior. For example, if I lowpass his annual data, then the amplitude of the low-frequ fluctuations that I get is noticeably less that what he has (i.e., as in the second attached plot). I guess there is some scaling done somewhere -- which of course is statistically bogus. Since you have compared all these things before, I'm sure you have some answers. It seems to me that the radical differences between different data sets (notwithstanding the multiple reasons for differences) do not engender confidence in any of them. Comparisons with model results do not make things much better. These points seem to be glossed over in the literature -- please tell me if this is a false impression on my part (since I would not want to propogate bad press in our review paper). Many thanx for your help and insights. Tom. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4972. 2005-06-23 07:41:55 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 23 07:41:55 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Landsea to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, Read the article on the new patio at home with a glass of wine. I thoroughly agree that we don't need to refer to it. Wrote that on it last night. It is very political. Several sentences and references shouldn't be there. I don't know who was supposed to have reviewed it - maybe Linda will know, as she used to or still does have something to do with BAMS. The inference in the email (from whence it came) is that it has been accepted ! Cheers Phil At 18:38 22/06/2005, you wrote: Don't see why we should refer to the Pielke piece. It is ot yet published. It is very political and an opinion. I understand that Kerry Emanuel has been in touch with NCAR and wants to try to make amends. I will find out what that means on my return. My recommendation would be to remove the criticism of the news conference that I was part of or withdraw the article. Kevin > >> Kevin, > I'll read the Pielke et al piece for BAMS that came over the > skeptic > email > today. Presumably we'll get forced to refer to it. We won't have to > refer > to Michaels > et al (2005) though as that is models. Michaels is wrong about the > heavy > precip, > but getting Groisman to write a succinct comment is impossible. > > I'm just awaiting Albert's revised 3.8. Been through all else except > for 3.4 and 3.6 - and 3.9. We should work on the latter next month. > > David has sent me a few more comments. Nothing - no diagrams from > Dave. > He's away till June 24. > > Cheers > Phil > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2415. 2005-06-23 11:41:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 23 11:41:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: Dave Keeling to: Ian.Sample@guardian.co.uk Ian, I'm not an expert in this, so I'd try and get someone else, but I'll try. I think the confusion is due to the natural and the enhanced (i.e. the human induced part) of the greenhouse effect. Natural here is why the mean temperature of the Earth is 14 deg C and not 30 degs cooler. Water Vapour is the main component of the natural greenhouse effect. Water Vapour is about 60-70% of the total if the sky were clear. CO2 is about 25%. The water vapour contribution is virtually impossible to measure and it depends on which lines in the absorption spectra get saturated. The additional CO2 since pre-industrial times is about 62% of the human-induced part. The rest (38%) is CH4, N2O, CFCs etc. So, they likely refer to different things: whether you include the natural greenhouse effect and whether you include water vapour. Cheers Phil At 10:18 23/06/2005, you wrote: Phil, hi, Thanks for the message and the email. We heard the news about Keeling after trying to track him down for a comment. I believe we're going to be doing an obit - at least I have pushed for it. I'm going to look again at the piece I've done - it's more a very very selective skip through some of the key milestones from Arrhenius onwards rather than a piece on Keeling himself. Incidentally, I wondered if you might be able to help me clear something up. I'm trying to check a figure for the %age contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect. I found figures attributing around 60% to atmospheric water vapour, but there seem to be two figures for CO2 - either around 25% or around 62%. If it's 62% (as a noaa guy told me last night), it means the water figure must be wrong. I'm wondering if there's a bit of confusion in that maybe the figs refer to different things. Might you know someone who can clarify what the contribution is? It'd be great if there's anyone who can help! With thanks again, Ian Phil Jones cc: Subject: Fwd: Dave Keeling 23/06/05 08:54 am Ian, This is all I have. Jim Fleming is an American Historian who has written a book on the scientists involved in climate change work over the last few centuries, but mainly from Aarrhenius onwards. Here is his co-ordinates if you need more. James R. Fleming -- Science, Technology and Society Program Colby College 5881 Mayflower Hill Waterville, ME 04901-8858 USA Phone 207-872-3548 Fax 207-872-3074 Secretary 207-872-3246 Profesional Profile: [1]http://www.colby.edu/profile/jfleming/ "James R. Fleming" >Dear Alan, > >I will be sending you a complete DVD of the scanned Callendar papers, but >for now, can you make the minor changes indicated below in Box 1. > >Also, Dave Keeling at Scripps died Monday of a sudden heart attack. I'm >sure it is news in the CRU. > >Thanks for doing this, >Jim Fleming Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4873. 2005-06-23 14:49:36 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Thu, 23 Jun 2005 14:49:36 +0100 from: "Betts, Richard" subject: RE: sudden response to vegetation change? to: Tim Osborn , "Tett, Simon" Tim, Yes, this probably is due to land use, and is probably an artifact of the particular diagnostic chosen for the run rather than being a result of climate change. That particular soil moisture diagnostic represents soil moisture in the root zone. When deforestation is imposed, the root zone shrinks so that diagnostic shows less soil moisture. The soil moisture content per unot root depth may not have actually changed though. There is an alterntive diagnostic (soil moisture content in layers) which is independent of the plant roots, but unfortunately I think that wasn't included in the run. Cheers, Richard Dr Richard Betts Manager, Ecosystems and Climate Impacts Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX5 2SN, UK Tel: +44 (0)1392 886877 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 richard.betts@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk -----Original Message----- From: Tim Osborn [mailto:t.osborn@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Thursday, June 23, 2005 2:35 PM To: Betts, Richard; Tett, Simon Cc: Keith Briffa Subject: sudden response to vegetation change? Dear Simon and Richard, I have a question regarding some very sudden changes in soil moisture in the ALL250 HadCM3 run. Please see the attached PDF plots. They all come from 9 grid boxes in and around Fargo in North Dakota. The exact lat-lon coordinates for the 9 boxes are given in the header of the ASCII data file which contains the soil moisture data only. If you look at the soil moisture plots, you'll see very sudden reductions in some boxes at different times. Why? If "real", I can only guess that this is due to vegetation change imposed during ALL250. These are annual means with a 30-yr filter also shown. If you look at the data file you'll see that the second time series (from 97.5 W, 50 N) has the change between 1910 and 1911 affect all months. And it is huge relative to the pre-1910 mean and relative to interannual variability. The first time series in the file doesn't show such a change. Should such changes be so sudden, and with such contrast between neighbouring grid boxes? I guess it might if the Ramankutty & Foley land use data have such discontinuities in. For interest I've also included time series of new surface SW radiation and air temperature from the same 9 boxes. They show trends rather than sudden changes, perhaps more related to tropospheric sulphate aerosol cooling than to vegetation change? Anyway, there's apparently no anthropogenic warming here in HadCM3. Any comments on the apparent discontinuities? I'm wondering whether I should use these grid box time series? I could average the 9 together to get a North Dakota time series, which would smooth the change out, but given the underlying behaviour, I'm not sure I'd be confident in this either. Cheers Tim 2674. 2005-06-23 15:43:29 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 23 15:43:29 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: NH Borehole Timeseries to: Jason Smerdon , Henry Pollack Dear Jason and Henry, (1) Data---------------------------------------- I've at last found time to extract time series from the HadCM3 and ECHO-G (==ECHAM4/HOPE) model simulations of the last 500 and 1000 years, respectively. To avoid focussing on single grid boxes, I've actually extracted the closest box to the lat/lon coordinates you provided, plus the 8 surrounding boxes. For ECHO-G there is a single simulation ("erik") from 1000-1990 forced by solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas variations. For HadCM3 there are two runs, "nat" 1500-1999 forced by solar and volcanic, plus "all" 1750-1999 forced by solar, volcanic and anthropogenic forcings. Thus to recreate the best simulation of the real climate since 1500, you need to take years 1500-1749 from "nat" and tack on 1750-1999 from "all". I haven't done this because I thought you might first just look at the recent period of "erik" and "all" and see how they compare with Fargo observations (but see below about what you might do with the data). The variables I've provided for each run are: airtm = 1.5m air temperature precp = precipitation snowd = depth of lying snow swrad = net surface short-wave radiation plus for HadCM3 soilt = soil temperatures at 4 different depths all in one file. The depths are not give in the files: levels 1 to 4 have thicknesses 0.1, 0.25, 0.65 and 2.0 m respectively. Thus the middles of levels 1 to 4 are at 0.050, 0.225, 0.675 and 2.000 m below the surface. while for ECHO-G tsoi* = soil temperatures at * levels, where * = 1 to 5. The depths of the middles of these five levels are given in each file. I do have a few other variables, including (e.g.) soil moisture. But I didn't want to overload you and also soil moisture seems to behave strangely in HadCM3 - I'm checking it out with the Hadley Centre. (2) Plots--------------------------------------- To give you an idea of what the data look like, I've also included plots of the mean seasonal cycles and of annual time series from each variable (in separate files) and for each of the 9 grid boxes (in separate plots in each file). (3) Climate behaviour--------------------------- You'll see that ECHO-G begins relatively warm, which is partly an artefact of the initial conditions being too warm - so don't spend a long time worrying about that. Also, ECHO-G has large warming from LIA to present - but no tropospheric sulphate aerosol cooling was included, so that explains why it is greater warming that in other models. I recently submitted a paper describing these issues which I can send if you want. It makes comparing long-term trends with palaeodata rather complex. You'll see that HadCM3 "all" actually cools at this location. I think that this is because of the relatively strong tropospheric sulphate aerosol cooling included in this model (see large falls in swrad). Not also that some big vegetation changes may have been imposed in the HadCM3 "all" simulation - makes a big difference to soil moisture, and possibly contributes to the cooling simulated near Fargo in this model. In other areas warming does occur, and in fact warming dominates when looking at the whole hemisphere or globe. (4) What to do with the data?-------------------- We didn't really discuss what you would do with the data in detail. It might be interesting to look at the land-air coupling simulated near Fargo by these models, in comparison with observations. I've provided snow and precip in case you wanted to look at how these affect the coupling in the models. In HadCM3 there are large changes in vegetation imposed at various times in some of the 9 boxes - mainly between 1870 and 1910. Maybe a response in land-air coupling might be apparent in HadCM3 by comparing 1750-1850 with 1920-present? Anyway, you're free to investigate the data in whatever way you wish and hopefully there might be results interesting enough for a paper? This single site data isn't really appropriate for looking at long-term trends, given the atypical behaviour of this region in HadCM3 and the lack of sulphate in ECHO-G. I'm still working on the borehole simulations and will send you some results to look at in a few weeks. Sorry for the long email - I tried to be comprehensive, but if you need further explanation then please ask. I've just realised that all these time series data and plots come to about 20 MB -- too big to email. I've put them on our anonymous ftp site: ftp.cru.uea.ac.uk cd /people/timosborn/borehole4pollacksmerdon You'll want all the files in this directory. Cheers Tim 1925. 2005-06-24 11:52:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, "Ricardo Villalba" date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 11:52:25 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: First draft of FOD to: Keith Briffa Hi gang - I still have to weigh in on the great figs/text that Keith and Tim have created, but here's some feedback in the meantime. I agree that a mean recon isn't the thing to do. Let me think more before I weigh in more on the fig. Working to get other LAs to get their stuff in. As for the Southern Hem temperature change fig (and caption and a little text), I agree that you (Ricardo in the lead) should do it as you've proposed. We need a clear S. Hem statement, and although it should stress that the data are too few to create a reliable S Hem recon, we should show the data that are available. Thus, PLEASE proceed Ricardo on this tack. Also, can we include the borehole recon series from S. Africa and Australia (e.g., Pollack and Huang, 98)? I'm sure Henry Pollack would provide fast - cc Huang too, since he might be even faster. Keith and Tim, does that make sense? Please note that I think we can find room for the above, regardless, if it is compelling enough. As for ENSO, we will need to address for sure - based mainly on the more direct coral data rather than teleconnected (e.g., tree-ring) relationships. The latter don't seem to be definitive enough at this time - as I think we discussed in China. The same holds true for NAO/AO/PDO etc., and I think that we (Keith and Tim) will need to have this in their section - in a appropriately short manner. I'll provide more feedback on this soon, so don't sweat it for now. Main thing is to go ahead on the S Hem temp fig/caption/short text., independent of ENSO etc discussions. Thanks, Peck >Eystein and Peck >very quick initial response - as have not seen >Tim today. The Figure legends with very detailed >explanations is at the end of the text I sent >you already. The forcings ARE the ones that went >into the models , appropriately colour coded for >direct comparison - it was partly the difficulty >of getting all of these prescribed or diagnosed >forcings sorted out for each model that took Tim >so long.The uncertainty levels are a compromise >that chose came up with - see description in >caption , but we are considering other things . >Will get back to re the colours. Producing a >mean reconstruction is not in my opinion a >sensible thing to do so we will have to talk >about this. The question of space is crucial >regarding the Figure and reworking needed on >Regional stuff Ricardo and I need to know how >the space is panning out , and you opinions on >the reative importance of a SH regional Figure >versus an ENSO Figure.- and what about Monsoon >Peck? By the way, please clarify the space re >the Medieval Warm Period Box. Does this have to >come down , thought it was short enough? >Keith > > At 09:03 24/06/2005, Eystein Jansen wrote: >>Hi Keith and Tim, >>Lots of thanks for your hard work. >>I have gone through the FOD draft and the >>figures. Will send comments on text later today. >>Here some comments on the figures. >>I did not see the figure captions so it is not >>entirely transparent to me what went into the >>figures, hopefully all is material that is or >>will be published before the end of 2005. But >>anyhow, I think these figures are very good and >>in my view give the different reconstructions, >>the combined uncertainty as well as >>reconstructions and simulations brought >>together. I assume you have the Moberg et al >>reconstruction included, but not the Oerlemans, >>which will be treated in Ch. 4 (needs a x-ref). >>Concerning the way of displaying the >>uncertainties, it is not transparent to me how >>the white and grey areas are produced. Would it >>be viable to make a single curve of the mean of >>the reconstructions to accompany the >>simulations? The white area underlying the >>simulations seem a bit weak, in the sence that >>a superficial reader might wonder if it >>displays something without content, perhaps a >>different shade or colour would be better. >>Conserning the simulations, it needs to be >>clarified that the simulations did not >>necessarily use the forcings displayed above, >>hence it may be misleading to place the >>forcings and simulations into the same figure. >>Concerning the forcings, I am a bit surprised >>that the amplitude of these are so close to >>each other. Although I haven´t followed the >>litterature here in detail, my impression was >>that there is quite high discrepancies between >>the various solar reconstructions, but I may be >>wrong. >> >>Ricardo asks about whether Peck and I have >>Ok-ed his suggested figure. To me it seems a >>good candidate for an ENSO illustration, with >>some polishing to make it less technical, but >>since Peck is more up to speed on this and >>working on the issue, I would leave it to him >>to weigh in on this matter. >> >>Some first impressions for your consideration. >> >>Cheers, >>Eystein >> >> >> >> >> >>-- >>______________________________________________________________ >>Eystein Jansen >>Professor/Director >>Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >>Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >>Allégaten 55 >>N-5007 Bergen >>NORWAY >>e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >>Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 >>Fax: +47-55-584330 > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2478. 2005-06-24 16:35:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jun 24 16:35:01 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: The latest version of Ch 3 to: Kevin Trenberth , Peter Ambenje , Roxana Bojariu , David Easterling , David Parker , Fatemeh Rahimzadeh , Jim Renwick , Matilde Rusticucci , Brian Soden , Panmao Zhai , Albert Klein Tank Dear All, Attached is the latest draft of the text. During the last two weeks I've made extensive alterations to 3.3. and 3.8, but there are minor changes to all sections with the exception of 3.4, 3.6 and 3.9. I'm away next week and have a meeting in London on July 4, so I'll be back in CRU on July 5. I will have email connection next week during the meeting I'm going to which is near Rome. The principal change I've made is to merge the sections on drought from sections 3.8 and 3.3 into a longer section 3.3.4. There were a number of differences between these two sections which I've resolved. The only drawback of having the section in 3.3 is that it refers to Box 3.5 which comes in 3.8. 4 of our 5 recent extremes relate to drought. Also in this rewrite I removed or have flagged some sections that relate to paleo. The flagged ones should probably be removed. I've also flagged some sections in 3.5, 3.7 and 3.8 that are on detection or impacts which I think should also be removed. In Beijing, we agreed on a deadline for submission of final figures for the FOD of June 30. Can these be sent both to Kevin and me and to any others who've been involved in the various discussions? From July 5 onwards I'll be working with Kevin to put together a complete set of our diagrams. Albert mentioned that one or two may not yet be available. If we still want them we will want some form of placeholder. So the next push should be on these figures. I have had another push on updating the references. As fast as I put in the page numbers of those just out, I seem to be adding more in press ones ! Albert agreed to check the references with the text and vice versa, but not till early August. I am only able to check a few of the common journals (AMS, AGU, RMS, Climate Dynamics etc) so can you all spend a little time going through the reference list to see if you can update those that are now out. There are still about 40-50 that should be out now. We also need full details for some that are down for years between 1980 and 2004. Check if the reference is there and add in the details. It might the case that the reference has been removed. Trying to get these is time consuming for me. In many cases I have little idea what I'm looking for. I have said this last paragraph at least twice and Kevin has reiterated the point, but NOTHING HAS HAPPENED. We are going to be busy over the next 6 weeks, so can all have a concerted look at the references. I hope I've highlighted all the incomplete references. Also, whilst you're doing this you will realise that many will not be out before August 12. We need pdfs for all these. Here is my current list of pdfs. I have to check later whether any of these are out. Directory of C:\Documents and Settings\f028\My Documents\fodpdfs .. 20/06/2005 16:10 1,267,306 Aguilaretal2005.pdf 16/06/2005 11:23 2,222,713 alexanderetal2005.pdf 31/05/2005 07:50 1,526,767 caesaralexander05.pdf 05/05/2005 08:00 1,173,439 Dai_etal_BAMS_Clouds.pdf 28/04/2005 07:58 581,127 Fujibe_SOLA.pdf 23/12/2004 09:30 278,872 FuMSU_TropicsGRL.pdf 02/04/2005 13:41 1,023,007 Griffiths et al manuscript revised 18feb05.pdf 03/05/2005 07:45 921,057 Hirota050430.pdf 14/06/2005 07:42 325,831 kleintanketal2005.pdf 20/05/2005 09:03 968,951 Kostopoloujones2005.pdf 26/05/2005 12:24 280,445 kothawalekumar2005.pdf 13/05/2005 16:20 569,999 Mears_Wentz_2005.pdf 31/05/2005 10:30 364,509 Newetal2005.pdf 13/05/2005 16:20 1,225,333 NorrisIndoPac.pdf 17/03/2005 08:57 1,584,581 NorrisJGRaccepted.pdf 16/05/2005 16:21 1,543,724 Pezza.Simmonds.GRL2005.pdf 31/05/2005 07:50 3,865,471 rayner_etal_2005.pdf 26/05/2005 07:44 1,023,382 smithreynolds2005.pdf 21/06/2005 08:36 509,491 smitsetal2005.pdf 26/05/2005 07:44 745,322 ThompsonSolomon2005Updated1.pdf 04/05/2005 10:02 1,102,751 thorenetal2005.pdf 26/05/2005 07:44 963,654 voseetal05b.pdf 20/06/2005 16:10 937,539 Zhangetal2005.pdf You will see I haven't yet got these into a common naming format, but I am getting there slowly. We will need pdfs of all papers that we will not have page numbers by Aug 12. I think that is all at the moment. Kevin is back this weekend, so he will send an additional email if there is anything I've forgotten. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4238. 2005-06-24 17:05:14 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 17:05:14 -0600 from: Raimund Muscheler subject: solar activity to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, Caspar Ammann told me that you are coordinator of the discussion about climate change during the last 1000 years. There are conflicting results about the changes in solar activity during the last 1000 years (e.g. Bard et al., 2000, Usoskin et al., 2003) with potentially important implications for the discussion of the influence of natural causes on the current climate change. Therefore, we discussed the radionuclide-based evidence of past changes in solar activity and the reasons for the conflicting results. We also included new calculations about past changes in the 14C production rate that we could connect to the instrumental data. Caspar said that you might be interested to see the paper (I attached the title & abstract below). Best regards Raimund Title: Changes in solar activity during the last 1000 years inferred from radionuclide records Abstract: Identification of the causes of past climate change requires detailed knowledge of one of the most important natural factors - solar forcing. Prior to the period of direct solar observations, radionuclide abundances in natural archives provide the best-known proxies for changes in solar activity. Here we present two independent reconstructions of changes in solar activity during the last 1000 years, which are interred from 14C and 10Be records. These records exhibit a good agreement that allows us to obtain a reliable estimate of past solar magnetic modulation of the radionuclide production rates. Differences between 10Be records from Antarctica and Greenland indicate that climatic changes have influenced the deposition of 10Be during some periods of the last 1000 years. The radionuclide-based reconstruction of past changes in solar activity does not always agree with the sunspot record, which indicates that the coupling between those proxies is not as close as has been assumed by some authors. The tree ring 14C record and 10Be from Antarctica indicate that recent solar activity is high but not exceptional with respect to the last 1000 years. Raimund Muscheler National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80305-3000 USA tel: 303-497-1399 fax: 303-497-1348 email: raimund@ucar.edu 1453. 2005-06-24 19:32:56 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Fri, 24 Jun 2005 19:32:56 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] SEction 6.2.3 to: Eystein Jansen Hi friends, attached is section 6.2.3. for the FOD, including the EndNote file (which holds all my Chapter 6 references). The changes from the ZOD are not dramatic. What I have done: - No length cuts, as this was already right. - Cut the number of refs as requested (including all self-refs) and in fact a bit more - as this is a fairly general section on paleo-modeling methods, I thought I can cut a bit more refs than average, as general statements (like that models are used to simulate e.g. the LGM) do not need to be backed up with refs, since we discuss specific examples later on anyway. - Implemented reviewer requests for some small rephrasing, including new sentence on vege and ecosystem models - Implemented one reviewer request for changing a ref, resisted some reviewer requests for additional refs (e.g., citing Milankovich...) The exec bullet point for this section (methodological advances) is fine with me. Hope it is to everyones liking, Stefan p.s. Now I'm working on section 6.3.2 on abrupt climate changes. Won't finish today, but over weekend. -- To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\6.2.3_FOD.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Chapter6_Rahmstorf-Converted.enl" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 585. 2005-06-25 16:08:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 16:08:23 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Exec bullet points on abrupt change to: Eystein Jansen , Jonathan Overpeck , IPCC Chapter 6 Hi friends, we were left with three semi-finished bullet points on THC changes and abrupt climate change in Beijing. In the powerpoint file sent by Peck on 2 June, these are the slides # 11, 18, and 19. Bullet 18 is really about shift in e.g. drought regime and other regional changes, which I'm not expert on so won't comment. Bullets 11 and 19 are within my expertise, they concern THC changes and DO and Heinrich events. I would like to suggest the following wording for these two bullets (and I propose to keep them together): * More than 20 times during the past 100,000 years, large and abrupt climate shifts have occurred known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events and Heinrich events. Temperatures changed by up to 12 ºC within a decade around the northern Atlantic (e.g., in Greenland). These events persisted for centuries and had global repercussions, such as major shifts in tropical rainfall patterns. They were probably not associated with large changes in global mean temperature, but rather with a redistribution of heat between northern and southern hemisphere. * Strong evidence, both from sediment data and from modelling, links abrupt climate events to changes in the Atlantic ocean circulation, although details of the mechanism are still under discussion. Our current understanding suggests that the ocean circulation can become unstable and change rapidly when critical thresholds are crossed. While it is unclear where these thresholds are and how much they differ between glacial and modern climate, it cannot be ruled out that future warming and meltwater inflow could again trigger major ocean circulation changes. The rationale here is that there are in my view two key conclusions from our paleo-knowledge about these abrupt events: (1) that very big and abrupt events have happened quite a few times in the past (this is a warning that the climate system is capable of such things, purely from data), and (2) that we actually know something about the mechanism, namely that the ocean circulation (triggered by whatever) can change in a fast and major way, and this could happen again. I believe these are robust conclusions that I hope everyone can share. I'm now working on the draft of 6.3.2 which will underpin these two bullets. Stefan _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4381. 2005-06-26 08:11:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 08:11:58 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: Re: NEED HELP! to: "Michael E. Mann" ,tim Osborn , Keith Briffa Mike, Picked these up on the way to the airport. Off to near Rome all next week. Another meeting on solar variability and climate. Should have email contact. Keith and Tim should be here next week, at least on Monday and Tuesday. Malcolm was here on Friday. He's probably still in the UK for a few days, but not near Norwich. Cheers Phil At 17:00 25/06/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Tim/Keith/Phil, Please see attached letter from the U.S. House republicans. As Tom has mentioned below, it would be very helpful if I can get feedback from you all as I proceed w/ drafting a formal response. Thanks in advance for any help, mike Date: Sat, 25 Jun 2005 09:36:49 -0600 From: Tom Wigley Organization: NCAR/CGD User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 (ax) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Michael Oppenheimer Cc: "Michael E. Mann" , shs@stanford.edu, dlashof@nrdc.org, jhansen@giss.nasa.gov, mmaccrac@comcast.net, santer1@llnl.gov, wigley@ucar.edu, Caspar Ammann Subject: Re: NEED HELP! X-UVA-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at fork9.mail.virginia.edu Mike, There are broader implications of this, so it is important to respond well. It is a pity you have to be the guinea pig after what you have gone through already, but you have many supporters. I would not advise a legal route. I think you need to consider this as just another set of referees' comments and respond simply, clearly and directly. On the science side the key point is that the M&M criticisms are unfounded. Although this may be difficult, remember that this is not really a criticism of you personally, but one aspect of a criticism of the foundations of global warming science by people both inside and outside of Congress who have ulterior motives. There may, in fact, be an opportunity here. As you know, we suspect that there has been an abuse of the scientific review process at the journal editor level. The method is to choose reviewers who are sympathetic to the anti-greenhouse view. Recent papers in GRL (including the M&M paper) have clearly not been reviewed by appropriate people. We have a strong suspicion that this is the case, but, of course, no proof because we do not know *who* the reviewers of these papers have been. Perhaps now is the time to make this a direct accusation and request (or demand) that this information be made available. In order to properly defend the good science it is essential that the reasons for bad science appearing in the literature be investigated. The lever here is that the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce is suggesting that your papers are bad science and asking (their point 8e) for the identity of people who reviewed your work. In response, it is completely fair and justifiable to point out that it is the papers that criticize your and related work that are bad science, and that, through the Subcommittee you can request the identities of the reviewers of all of these critical papers -- starting with M&M. When you respond, there are a number of items that require a direct response from you alone. There are also a number of scientific points where you could give a multi-authored response. There are many people who have expertise in this area and familiarity with the scientific issues who I am sure would be willing to join you (I would be happy to do so). At this stage, however, I would keep the group small. A few others could be added to the original email list nevertheless. I took the liberty of copying your plea and the Subcommittee's letter to Caspar Ammann, primarily because I think he can help with the scientific aspects better than most people. After all, he has been able to follow your method and reproduce your results, he has shown the flaws in M&M's work, he has investigated the bristlecone pine issue, and he has made all his software available on the web. The others who could be added at this early stage are Ray Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, your 'co-conspirators' -- and perhaps Phil Jones, Keith Briffa and Tim Osborn. I do not know how 'powerful' these alien opinions may be in the present parochial context, but I note that the instigators of all this are Canadians and that the science has no national boundaries. Phil, Keith and Tim are useful because they have demonstrated the flaws in the von Storch work -- which is, I assume, the Science paper that the Subcommittee's letter referes to. A word of warning. I would be careful about using other, independent paleo reconstruction work as supporting the MBH reconstructions. I am attaching my version of a comparison of the bulk of these other reconstructions. Although these all show the hockey stick shape, the differences between them prior to 1850 make me very nervous. If I were on the greenhouse deniers' side, I would be inclined to focus on the wide range of paleo results and the differences between them as an argument for dismissing them all. I attach also a run with MAGICC using central-estimate climate model parameters (DT2x = 2.6 degC, etc. -- see the TAR), and forcings used by Caspar in the runs with paleo-CSM. I have another Figure somewhere that compares MAGICC with paleo-CSM. The agreement is nearly perfect (given that CSM has internally generated noise while MAGICC is pure signal). The support for the hockey stick is not just the paleo reconstructions, but also the model results. If one takes the best estimates of past forcing off the shelf, then the model results show the hockey stick shape. No tuning or fudging here; this is a totally independent analysis, and critics of the paleo data, if they disbelieve these data, have to explain why models get the same result. Of course, von Storch's model results do not show such good century timescale agreement, but this is because he uses silly forcing and has failed to account for the fact that his model was not in equilibrium at the start of the run (the subject of Tim Osborn et al.'s submitted paper). This is a pain in the but, but it will all work out well in the end (unintentional pun -- sorry). Good science will prevail. Best wishes, Tom. ----------------------------------------------- Michael Oppenheimer wrote: Michael: This is outrageous. Ill contact some people who may be able to help right away. ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Michael E. Mann [[1]mailto:mann@virginia.edu] Sent: Friday, June 24, 2005 4:27 PM To: [2]shs@stanford.edu; [3]omichael@Princeton.EDU; [4]dlashof@nrdc.org; [5]jhansen@giss.nasa.gov; [6]mmaccrac@comcast.net; [7]santer1@llnl.gov; [8]wigley@ucar.edu Subject: NEED HELP! Importance: High dear all, this was predicted--they're of course trying to make things impossible for me. I need immediate help regarding recourse for free legal advice, etc. mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: [9]mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [10]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [11]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1248. 2005-06-26 20:54:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 20:54:46 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Congress and us to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi Peck, check this web-site: http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/Letters/06232005_1570.htm, and the lettters they have sent out. US Congress is entering the Hockey stick fight. I don´t think (hope) we will be engaged in this, but shows the climate surrounding us. There are in the lettter to Pachauri some refs to the 4AR... Eystein -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 881. 2005-06-27 10:57:56 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 10:57:56 +0100 from: f028 subject: FWD: [Fwd: response--comments?] to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Keith and Tim, Probably best to stay out of this, but Caspar is here at the meeting near Rome, so he sent me this email response from Mike. Presumably, Keith, Malcolm knew nothing about this when he was in CRU. I seem to get a mention in the letter to Pacchauri. Cheers Phil >===== Original Message From Caspar Ammann ===== -------- Original Message -------- Subject: response--comments? Date: Sun, 26 Jun 2005 20:28:13 -0400 From: Michael E. Mann To: John P. Holdren , kg13@cornell.edu, kknobloch@ucsusa.org, shs@stanford.edu, Tom Wigley , Gavin Schmidt , Stefan Rahmstorf , rbradley@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, jhansen@giss.nasa.gov, Caspar Ammann , omichael@Princeton.EDU>, , , , , Dear All, Please find attached (confidentially) a draft of a point-by-point response to the House Committee inquiry. I am currently talking w/ lawyers--the best option would be to have their request (or, more to the point, any possible subpoena that might follow it up) dismissed in court as frivolous in nature. Naturally, my response aims to drive home how frivolous the request is (in particular, how it is based on transparently false premises). Any suggestions/comments would be most appreciated. Thanks in advance for any feedback, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- Caspar M. Ammann National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80307-3000 email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Questions-answers.doc" 3609. 2005-06-27 10:58:43 ______________________________________________________ cc: jto@u.arizona.edu, eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, "Ricardo Villalba" date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 10:58:43 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Re: First draft of FOD to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, sorry that I did not see the figure legends - looked in the wrong file. Enclosed is your file with my comments to the text, seen as "track changes". My broadband access was down on Friday and I was away without internet in the week-end, thus you did not get it before now. I would hope to see the paragraphs in blue retained, since they give necessary detail about the many reconstructions available for the 4AR. Lets see where the whole chapter ends up in terms of space before deciding. As you can see from my comments in the text I think we need to be very careful concerning the wording of the MM case and also using the Wahl/Amman papers before they have been peer reviewed. I leave the ENSO stuff to Peck. Concerning figures. I agree that providing a mean reconstruction is not right - wanted to check this out, as this also involves how we deal with Crowleys figure. Would be nice if some other colour than white was used for the mid part. I second Peck´s comments concerning SH. Even a brief section and a Figure would be great. Cheers, Eystein >Peck and Eystein >one day after the deadline only! >attached in separate emails (only to you two - >for integration and distribution) is the text >and 2 Figures for the 2000 year section. I have >included the last part (in green) as sent (I >believe in preliminary form) by Ricardo (this is >in green to indicate that I have not tried to >edit it until Ricardo and others are ready- >though I think it may be too large already - but >see later). The section presently in blue, must >(I think) be taken out (either to be put in >supplementary information - as could other >sections that I have actually taken out of the >ZOD already - or dumped. I will not work on this >assumption yet in case it will not happen). >I have put in a bulleted summary section at the >end (not including regional bullets) - please >consider these as my contribution to the >potential new bullets). >We will have to see where the SH section Ricardo >is writing with Ed Cook will go - no matter how >brief I belive this has to go in - the >large-scale moisture stuff from the ZOD has gone >from this draft also and, if retained in some >form, will have to go in the regional section >also - as will monsoon if we have it - I do not >see how this will can be accomplished without >very heavy editing of this section (happy to >help with this when appropriate). >I have tried to incorporate all comments >received on ZOD , while putting in the degree of >detail I thought necessary about the most >important stuff as I see it - given the severe >space constraint I realise this needs further >pruning but it will mean cutting flesh. >David,Stefan, Fortunat and Henry and Tom >Crowley's comments are essential now (we agreed >to add Tom as CA in Beijing). Henry will need >to help in paring down the GST citations where >possible (hope he understands my attempts to >revise his section while trying to keep all >interested parties opinion's in mind). >I particularly need feedback soon on the >Figures - which Tim has worked heroically on (as >well as helping me with text) for the past >weeks. We believe we have come up with a great >solution to a really difficult job of conveying >a massive amount of information in these , >clearly. Note the expanding time scale on the >reconstruction Figure - and our way of showing >the "average " confidence limits (*1.5) . This >information is then transferred , after >adjustment to another base period, to the >simulations Figure . At least , the lower part >of this must have a great chance of making the >SFP. >I am not sure how much space this text will take >up after you reformat, but the Figures and >associated legends should be allocated their own >2 pages. I am here for the next 2 weeks at least >and ready to interact with yourselves and others >regarding the next steps - especially for the >regional section - but we need strong direction >from The CLAs ( and the uncensored opinions of >the LAs and CLAs on the current content and >priorities . >Over to you now > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\IPCC-FOD-KRB-17-06ej.doc" 507. 2005-06-27 13:42:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 13:42:26 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: FWD: [Fwd: response--comments?] to: f028 ,k.briffa@uea.ac.uk At 10:57 27/06/2005, f028 wrote: >Keith and Tim, > Probably best to stay out of this, but Caspar > is here at the meeting near Rome, so he sent me this > email response from Mike. Our emails crossed - I sent a supportative email to MBH with a copy of our MAGICC-vs-ECHO-G manuscript and I dug out the email that Sonja B-C had sent after publishing M&M. But after just now reading Mike's draft response that you forwarded, which is in Mike's usual provocative rather than placatory tone(!), I will keep a low profile as you suggests. However... > I seem to get a mention in the letter to Pacchauri. ...they may well be asking for all the temperature station data again, since this is indeed raised in the IPCC letter - "Are the data and methodologies for such works complete and available for other researchers to test and replicate?" I'd guess your US DoE funding means that you would be under some obligation to respond if they were to direct their enquiry towards you! Hope Rome's not too unbearable - 37C on the forecast! Cheers Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 3038. 2005-06-27 14:01:44 ______________________________________________________ cc: santer1@llnl.gov, wigley@ucar.edu, Keith Briffa , Phil Jones , Bradley Raymond , Hughes Malcolm date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 14:01:44 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Fwd: Re: NEED HELP! to: Tim Osborn Dear Tim, Here is a draft of my response to the congressional inquiry. Please let me know if you have any comments (in particular, if the way I have cited your submitted paper is ok??). thanks again for your help, mike At 08:35 AM 6/27/2005, Tim Osborn wrote: At 17:00 25/06/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Tim/Keith/Phil, Please see attached letter from the U.S. House republicans. As Tom has mentioned below, it would be very helpful if I can get feedback from you all as I proceed w/ drafting a formal response. Thanks in advance for any help, mike Dear Mike, Malcolm and Ray I was shocked to see how blatantly this committee has been subverted by the anti-greenhouse lobby. It is an outrageous request in many ways, not least in the amount of effort that it will take to gather together all the information and respond; e.g. point 4 -- provide all data, and (it seems) computer code, documentation, etc., related to any paper that you authored or co-authored! It would take me months to organize and document the 100s-1000s programs and 10s-100s of GB of data which have been used in papers with my name on! Even if the committee's review doesn't come to a conclusion that the anti-greenhouse lobby likes, they will still consider it a victory if they tie up your time for a number of months. Is there any way of reducing the efforts involved -- perhaps by requesting the committee to say which papers they wish to focus on? I haven't spoken to Keith or Phil yet, but I'm sure we will help where we can. Here are two specific things: (1) Tom mentioned a paper that we've submitted that has relevance to von Storch et al. (2004). It's still under review so I don't want it distributed far, but in case a copy hasn't found its way to you yet, the submitted manuscript is attached. The focus is not, in fact, on the von Storch et al. study, but is instead on the ECHO-G simulation that they used. We use MAGICC to show that the atypical ECHO-G behaviour can be mainly attributed to relatively large disequilibrium in the initial conditions and to the omission of any anthropogenic tropospheric sulphate cooling towards the end of the run. Our final conclusion on page 15 might be useful for you: we do not discount the bias in climate reconstructions suggested by von Storch, but we do show that the size of the bias would likely have been much smaller if ECHO-G didn't have the unrealistic behaviour that we identified. To emphasize again: we don't invalide von Storch's results, we just cast doubt on the magnitude of the bias. (2) Tom also suggests that you raise questions regarding the reviewing of papers that attack your work. This is a good idea. I can help with some insight into the "review process" (in the loosest sense!) that was used for M&M's first paper in Energy & Environment. I've attached an edited response from that "journal's" editor, Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, to some questions I raised. The editor clearly indicates that there was very little peer-review. Publication was speeded up for purely political reasons, with scientific review losing in the trade off with policy. The limited review that apparently took place used reviewers who were selected because they were not "part of the anti-skeptics bandwagon" rather than for having the necessary expertise. From which I read that she only selected skeptics. I haven't forwarded this before, though I have alluded to these admissions from the editor to some of you, because the editor implied that she was responding in confidence. But in light of the challenge that you are now facing, I thought it would be fair to give you this information. Best wishes Tim From: "Sonja.B-C" Date: Thu, 6 Nov 2003 21:52:12 +0000 To: Tim Osborn Subject: Re: McIntyre-McKitrick and Mann-Bradley-Hughes Dear Tim Thanks for your considered reponse from Norwich.... I respond in CAPITALS IN TEXT. Please consider this for UEA eyes only; I am very honest... Sonja On Wed, 05 Nov 2003 10:44:23 Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear Sonja, > > Below are some responses to your message that was forwarded from the > climatsceptics mailing list... > > The interesting thing about their preliminary response, however, is that it > indicates that the difference in results might be fully explained by a > simple error in not using many of the early tree-ring data. If this is > confirmed by their fuller response, then, even though there may be some > problems with the proxy data used by Mann et al., it implies that these > problems do not actually make a lot of difference to the results - the main > difference comes from omitting the early tree-ring data. A paper that > identifies some problems with the proxy data used by Mann et al. would > still be interesting, but if these problems made very little difference to > the results obtained, then it would be of rather minor importance. ... I ALSO BELIEVE THAT MCINTYRE AND MCKINTRICK HAVE MORE CRITICISMS TO MAKE (HENCE THE EMAIL TO STEVE). (STEVE, NEXT TIME, IF THERE IS ONE, WE MIGHT LET MANN HAVE LOOK IN ADVANCE, BUT NO PROMISE...THIS TIME I WAS RUSHING YOU TO GET THIS PAPER OUT FOR POLICY IMPACT REASONS, EG. PUBLICATION WELL BEFORE COP9. TIM, HOW ELSE DO YOU THINK A SMALL JOURNAL RUN BY TWO PEOPLE VERY PART TIME CAN ATTRACT PAPERS OF BROADER INTEREST IF NOT BY DOING THINGS QUICKLY?... THE M&M PAPER WAS AMENDED UNTIL THE VERY LAST MOMENT. THERE WAS A TRADE OFF IN FAVOUR OF POLICY, AND THIS IS A DECISION I STAND BY. SCIENCE DEBATES SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN PUBLIC IF THEY HAVE MAJOR POLICY RELEVANCE. > > I will finish by asking a few questions about Energy and Environment and > the peer-reviewing of this paper, which I hope you will be able and willing > to answer. > > (1) Mann et al. assert that they were not given the opportunity to review > the McIntyre and McKitrick paper. It would be nice if you could confirm > that assertion, to ensure that we don't propagate any inaccuracies. You > might also want to comment on whether this is reasonable or not, for a > paper that is a direct response to their original paper. > TRUE, BUT I HAD NO IDEA THAT HE, OR SCIENTIFIC ETHICS, EXPECTED THIS... IN THIS CASE IT WAS ALSO ONE OF SPEED THINK HOW LONG IT WOULD TAKE TO ALLOW RESPONSES, AND COUNTER RESPONSES.. IN MY VIEW IT IS STILL BETTER IF THIS TAKES PLACE IN PUBLIC SO THAT ALL CAN SEE THE ARGUMENTS USED IN HIGHLY CONTESTED AREAS. > (2) The McIntyre and McKitrick paper does not seem to have submission, > acceptance or publication dates on it. Does E&E not normally do this? If > you do, then I'd be interested to know what these dates are. NO WE DONT, WE ARE A TINY OUTFIT, LARGELY UNPAID, NO GLOSSY JOURNAL, AND WE HAVE NEVER WORKED TO SUCH DATES. THIS PAPER WAS AMENED UNTIL THE VERY LAST MINUTE AND I WATCHED IT BEING WRITTEN OVER SEVERAL MONTHS WITH A LOT OF HELP, AS ACKNOWLDEGED. I THEN SEND IT OUT TO ANOTHER 5 PEOPLE WHO ONLY had a few days to respond TO THE AUTHORS DIRECT, BUT ALL DID EXCEPT ONE WHO NEVER GOT IT...) . SOME WERE VERY SENIOR SCIENTISTS INDEED BUT WHO WERE CHOSEN BECAUSE THEY WERE NOT PART OF THE ANTI- SKEPTICS BANDWAGON. AT THIS STAGE I WANTED IMPROVEMENTS NOT FUNDAMENTAL CRITIQUE ...THE REAL DEBATE SHOULD COME AFTER PUBLICATION. THESE REPLIES CONTAINED NO RESERVATIONS RE PUBLICATION, ONLY ADMISSIONS THAT SOME THINGS HAD TO BE TAKEN ON TRUST AND THAT NONE HAD A LOOK AT THE ORIGINAL DATA. ---------------------- Dr.Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen Reader,Department of Geography, Editor, Energy & Environment (Multi-science,[1]www.multi-science.co.uk) Faculty of Science University of Hull Hull HU6 7RX, UK Tel: (0)1482 465349/6341/5385 Fax: (0)1482 466340 Sonja.B-C@hull.ac.uk Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\BartonWhitfield-Responses.doc" 3207. 2005-06-27 15:42:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 15:42:40 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: First draft of FOD - figures to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hi Keith and Tim - Eystein is going to chat with you tomorrow, and my goal is to get as much as I can to you guys today and tomorrow. First, off the figures are great (!) - that was tough job, and I'm very impressed. Of course, I can already start to sense what the debates will be, but we can address that in the text. Here are some comments with respect to the figures - some are relevant to the text... 1) they really are great 2) is the instrumental series on the first fig (top and bottom) the same as featured in chapter 3? Need to say that. 3) rather than clogging up the caption with all the notes on each curve, how about a table for each of the two figures. Then you can include some more info on each recon - e.g., number of sites, types of proxies??) I'm thinking mainly that the captions are not pretty, but you may be able to include more summary info on each curve also 4) should we make all the series in their original and modified for the figure form available on a www site so that reviewers can play with the data and make sure they get their two cents in before this thing is all said and published? The WDC-A is ready to help w/ posting of data and figs (see below). 5) I like the expanding time axis, but I'd be prepared to have a second one with a linear axis. In fact, I'd put it up on the www page at the same time with the data. The more we do to help others understand, the better? 6) Also, it would be good to see both the data and the figure w/o the Gaussian-weighted filtering. What do doe these look like, can we make them available as suggested above. At the least, I'd like to see the fig w/o the filtering, even though I know it will be a mess. How about a series of time series plots (same x and y axes as the big fig 1) - in each you show both the filtered and unfiltered series. I know this is a pain for Tim, but we really have to make sure we're not missing anything in the data. And also - that we anticipate what others will do, ask us to do, or squawk about. 7) On the forcing fig (fig 2) - why don't we see all the different experiment curves (e.g., dotted red) in the forcing plots a, b and c? Need to say why in the caption - and if they have the same forcing, so you can't see it on the plot, need to say it. This could be much easier in a table that indicates "same as X"). 8) On fig 2 - does the recalulated envelop of reconstructed temps also include instrumental temps? Think so, but you should say it in the caption. Why doesn't the envelop go up to present? Can it? Might look better, and be more consistent w/ fig 1. If the envelop can't go to present, then maybe include the instrumental curve as in Fig 1. 9) reminders for the text (I'll think about these as I read a second time for editing) - 9a) need to explain why the recons don't continue going up w/ instrumental data at the end (post 1990?) - might what to mention something in caption, if you can shift all the other stuff to a table. 9b) there will be lots of discussion (during and post AR4 drafting) about what recon series (Fig 1) should or should not be believed. Thus, I think it is critical for us to same more about each recon - that is to INCLUDE what you wrote in blue, and perhaps to enhance. Need to really convince the reader that while not one recon is alone the truth (and hence Fig 1), they all have important strengths and weaknesses. But, the former outweigh the latter, so we've included them. 9c) I'm sure you saw the recent (to be infamous) Wall Stree Journal editorial - they showed what I think was a IPCC FAR curve - with the good old MWP and LIA etc (Lamb view? - I don't have the FAR w/ me). The way to handle the hocky stick might best be to put it in an historical perspective along with the older IPCC views. First, show your great figs, discuss them and what went into them, and then - after showing the state-of-the-art, discuss how much our understanding and view have changed. In this, simply compare each of the historical views (FAR, SAR, TAR) to the current view, and while doing so, play down the controversy (s) - especially the hockey stick. The smart folks will realize that that the fluff in the news is just that, but those with a real stake in that debate will hopefully get the point that it doesn't matter... 10) lastly (almost), I'm sorry to ask again, but I still want to know what is wrong with Tom Crowley's latest plot with all the recons shown together back through the Med W Period? I need to send you my edits on the MWP box, but it seem to me that Tom's fig could go in that box - to help make the point that - sorry, guys - the MWP wasn't much compared to the recent GLOBAL warming... 11) lastly (promise) - don't foget that Eystein and I think we can get a page or two extra for your section in the end. This means you can do all the above, and I can help (next) with the modes and extremes sections, and we can get it all in. Great job! Thanks, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 479. 2005-06-27 22:14:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 22:14:09 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: the Med Warm Period Box - Peck comments/edits to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Eystein Jansen Gentlemen - attached is the ZOD Med Warm Period Box with my edits/comments. I don't see anything sent since then, so hope I'm not editing the wrong thing. In any case, the Box was pretty nice as is, so I only made a few changes. Obviously, some updating w/ new studies is needed. The big issues are two: 1) the recent Wall Street Journal editiorial that is creating all the crap in the US actually showed a time series from the IPCC FAR - if you don't have it, or Eystein can't send, I can scan it in (my Republican Dad sends me these things, although he's an increasingly rare breed of moderate Republican). My thought is that it might we worth adding a couple lines documenting how the view of the MWP changed with each assessment and new knowledge. In doing so, it could be made very clear that there is a reason that scientists don't show those old plots anymore. We need to move the debate beyond the FAR, SAR and TAR on this issue! 2) it would be cool to have another figure that made the point about no single synchronous period warmer than late 20th century. This is where I get soft with respect to Tom's plot. If it is published to the extent we need it, and if the composite or large-area average recon is the same as you are showing in your great new Fig 1, then it seems that it would be reasonable to show Tom's fig as part of the Box - just to show the same thing in a different way, and to hammer in one more nail. That said, I'm not sure if my two conditions above are met (I emailed Tom, no response yet - you might have insight), and I believe you just don't like Tom's fig for some - probably good - reason. But, I wanted us to think extra hard about whether there is SOME fig that might work? That's it for tonight. Will finish editing your main text next work session tomorrow I hope. Best, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\MWP_box_textjto.doc" 2913. 2005-06-28 08:46:28 ______________________________________________________ cc: Christoph Kull , Christoph Kull , rbradley@geo.umass.edu, jan.esper@wsl.ch, anders@misu.su.se, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, wanner@giub.unibe.ch, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, tcrowley@duke.edu, Thorsten Kiefer date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 08:46:28 -0400 from: Julie Brigham-Grette subject: Re: Past Millennia Variability to: "Michael E. Mann" Yes, this change sounds great and most appropriate Mike. thanks...Julie BG (from Salt Lake) Christoph, Looks pretty good in general, but there is big problem in wording here: * Late 20th century warming is most probably anomalous regarding the past 1000 years. However, due to the much sparser network, and generally unreliable character of proxy data compared to the modern instrumental network, a solid conclusion about the uniqueness of the recent warmth cannot yet be definitive. I don't think that this group would agree that "generally unreliable character" is an appropriate description. I would suggest something more akin to the following, and would be interested in any other thoughts be have on this: Late 20th century warming is likely anomalous in the context of the past 1000 years. However, due to the much sparser available data, and the more uncertain character of proxy data compared to the modern instrumental network, a more definitive conclusion is not yet possible. thanks, mike At 08:21 AM 6/28/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear all, After including your comments, the document regarding "Past Millennia Variability" increased in length :-)! Thanks a lot for your edits. It is the idea to use this statement as a "working-basis" for a planned related workshop under the umbrella of PAGES-CLIVAR. Finally (after a wider discussion) a revised version may become a background statement for future research activities. Feel free to send me your comments. All the best and greetings from the PAGES office in Bern, Christoph -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml -- <<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>> "I love deadlines. I love the wooshing sound they make as they go by." --- Douglas Adams, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy Julie Brigham-Grette, Professor Dept of Geosciences 611 N. Pleasant Street Morrill Science Building University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003 Phone: 413-545-4840 // FAX: 413-545-1200 Email: juliebg@geo.umass.edu Web Site: www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/jbg PAGES SSC Chair: http://www.pages.unibe.ch/ AMQUA: http://www4.nau.edu/amqua/ <<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>><<>> 4286. 2005-06-28 09:27:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 09:27:43 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] abrupt and Important thoughts on References to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi all - thanks Fortunat and Stefan for more debate on the 1470. Sounds like the final decision is up to Eystein, but I can guess the way he's thinking. With regard to refs - remember that our goal is to cut the number of references significantly. Since this is an assessment and not a review, we can delete all but the most recent and comprehensive references. I don't like cutting out the original refs any more than you, but we just don't have room, and its more important to have text than exhaustive references. Our colleagues will hopefully understand, and if they don't then they need to do an ego check. It's more important that we make an impact with policy makers rather than with citation indices. Does this make sense? In any case, please help make sure we trim the total references DOWN in number by a significant number. This is not happening the to degree it should. Also, please not that in the US, the US Congress is questioning whether it is ethical for IPCC authors to be using the IPCC to champion their own work/opinions. Obviously, this is wrong and scary, but if our goal is to get policy makers (liberal and conservative alike) to take our chapter seriously, it will only hurt our effort if we cite too many of our own papers (perception is often reality). PLEASE do not cite anything that is not absolutely needed, and please do not cite your papers unless they are absolutely needed. Common sense, but it isn't happening. Please be more critical with your citations so we save needed space, and also so we don't get perceived as self serving or worse. Again, we can debate this if anyone thinks I've gone off the deep end. Thanks, peck PS - this is not to say anything critical of the refs Fortunat is suggesting - we must cite the most relevant papers, and we must be as up to date as possible. >Peck and all, > >Fully agree. This '1470' yr periodicity is highly controversial and I >was never convinced. >We can use the space for better things that are relevant in the context >of the anthropogenic GHG perturbation. > >I miss the recent and relevant literature. Examples are Pahnke and Zahn, >Science, 2005 and Stocker and Johnsen, Paleoceanography 18, 2003, and >Knutti et al., Nature, 2004 >Hemitt et al., Rev Geophysics, 2004 might be a good reference for >Heinrich events. > > > >Regards, > >Fortunat > > >Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >> >> Hi guys - I'm not aware of the age model changes that Eystein is >> talking about (however, I'm not in the Euro meeting circles, and >> trust he's right), but I know of several studies (e.g., U/Th dated >> (well dated) spelothem studies (plus C14 Cariaco) that indicate that >> the GISP/GRIP age models are off by quite a bit pre 40kish. The other >> studies agree, so it makes sense to me that the ice core gangs are >> revising their age models. Regardless of the probabilities (note that >> one finds evidence in quasi-periodic variance most all paleo >> records), this significant age model change means that the "1470 >> beat" has to be off/wrong or something else other than we've been led >> to believe. For the sake of playing it safe, we should play this beat >> way down until there is new evidence that is more convincing that it >> is for real. We can mention it, but we make it clear that the >> evidence for it is not all that strong - at best. >> >> I'll cc this to Fortunat and Valerie too - we don't want to rush to >> conclusions w/o good discussion. >> >> Thanks, Peck >> >> >Hi Eystein, >> > >> >concerning your comment on the 1470-year beat: I'm aware that in the >> >new time scale, it is less regular (at least I heard this, have not >> >tested myself yet). >> > >> >If you have two time scales, one showing a regularity and one not, >> >then there are two possibilities. >> >(1) The regular one is correct, in the other one the regularity got >> >wiped out by random dating errors. >> >(2) The one without regularity is correct, in the other one a >> >regularity arose by chance due to random dating errors. > > > >> >The likelyhood of the regularity found with the original GISP2 time >> >scale occuring by chance is minute - I've done some more >> >calculations, they are not complete yet but the likelyhood is in the > > >permil range. I think hypothesis (2) can be exluded at least at 99% >> >confidence level. >> > >> >Stefan >> > >> >-- >> >To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de >> >(My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) >> > >> >Stefan Rahmstorf >> >www.ozean-klima.de >> >www.realclimate.org >> >> -- >> Jonathan T. Overpeck >> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> Professor, Department of Geosciences >> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >> Mail and Fedex Address: >> >> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >> University of Arizona >> Tucson, AZ 85721 >> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >-- >Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern >Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern >Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: >http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1510. 2005-06-28 10:11:05 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 10:11:05 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Fwd: Re: updated MWP figure to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith - might be worth talking on the phone - you, me and Eystein - after you get back. You could be right, but it is a powerful way to look at the issue. The question is whether the normalization could be preventing a warmer than late-20th century signal from appearing? Should we instead update the Bradley Science graphic? That's not as effective in my opinion. So, let's talk next week? Going to a tree day meeting or a three day meeting - it has to be tough looking at tree data all day. have fun, thx, peck >Jonathan and Eystein >I am leaving very early for a tree day meeting in Swansea , and will >be away til Monday. Presently buried in EC Reporting and other stuff >- but the reason I dislike the MWP Figure is that the simple >normalization of series as done , (regardless of regional selection >of specific proxies) gives a largely random amplitude to the various >records , depending on their spectral character, and of course, >equal weight to all regardless of the strength of their link with >local or NH temperatures). I will think about this - you are the >ultimate arbiter anyway . >sorry to be so abruptly communicative >Keith > >At 16:10 28/06/2005, you wrote: >>Hi Tom -- thanks for the extra effort. I'm pushing others on the >>author team to think hard about such a figure (space may end up >>being the hardest part), and I should have something to discuss w/ >>you soon. Thanks for being willing to shift priorities if needed. >> >>FYI - I just got reviews back from an EOS piece that took over a >>1.5 months to get. And of course, they want some edits. Not the >>speedy venue we once knew a loved, although I bet if you really >>keep it short and sweet it might go faster. >> >>Best, more soon, peck >> >>>X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >>>Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 10:13:49 -0400 >>>From: Tom Crowley >>>X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >>>To: Jonathan Overpeck >>>Cc: Eystein Jansen >>>Subject: Re: updated MWP figure >>> >>>Hi Jonathan, >>> >>>let me answer the last question first - there are actually not >>>many records that go back that far and I have used, I think, every >>>one except Quelcaya, which being from the southern tropics makes >>>for a lonely but potential future inclusion (which makes no >>>difference on the conclusion). >>> >>>several of the sites include multiple time series - e.g., western >>>U.S. time series, w. Siberia time series, e. Asia, and w. >>>Greenland. I did not want to overweight any site though because >>>of the need for a geographic balance -- note that there are four >>>sites each in the w. hemisphere and e. hemisphere, and that the >>>distribution of sites in each hemisphere represents a good scatter. >>> >>>for almost all of these sites the references are easily imaginable >>>based on the location of the site, but they can be provided if you >>>are interested in including the figure. >>> >>>can you think of any long sites I have not included? right now I >>>cannot..... >>> >>>in the overlap interval of 1500-1850 our composite has highly >>>significant correlations with the Mann, Jones, and Briffa >>>reconstructions that contain much more data -- thereby suggesting >>>that use of only long time series provides a "reasonable" estimate >>>of the last 1100 years. >>> >>>I have not submitted this for publication but if you are >>>interested in including this in ipcc I can knock off a tutorial >>>note to eos on short notice..... >>> >>>I am attaching the figure in several different alternate formats - >>>cannot easily do the two you suggest from my mac, but again I can >>>get that done with more work if you are interested - let me know >>>where to go next - note that I originally sent this along fyi, >>>only to be used if you thought the figure was worthwhile -- if not >>>I will just reorder the priority of writing it up as a note, >>>tom >>> >>>Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>> >>>>Hi Tom - thanks for sending this plot. I'm a bit late in >>>>responding since we were moving to (and still into) our >>>>sabbatical digs in SW CO. >>>> >>>>Would you be willing to provide more on this plot in order for me >>>>to understand it better? I personally like the plot quite a bit, >>>>but between the space restrictions and other's assessment, >>>>whether we use it or not will take some real thinking. >>>> >>>>For example, it would help to have >>>> >>>>1) a higher resolution version - eps or ai? >>>>2) a caption or text that would spell out which records are >>>>included, and their origins (references) >>>>3) a bibliography for those refs. >>>>4) perhaps, you have a paper with this included? If so, can you >>>>send a prerprint? >>>>5) some discussion of why you used the series (sites) you did, >>>>and not others - more specifically, what's wrong with others? >>>> >>>>If you don't mind helping here, I'll promise to get it in the mix >>>>for serious discussion. Of course, it's already in the mix since >>>>Eystein forwarded to Keith, and you Tim, but I want to weigh in >>>>as informed as possible. Trying to keep track of a lot, so your >>>>help is much appreciated. >>>> >>>>Thanks! Peck >>>> >>>>>Hello, >>>>> >>>>>I have been fiddling with the best way to illustrate the stable >>>>>nature of the medieval warm period - the attached plot has eight >>>>>sites that go from 946-1960 in decadal std. dev. units - >>>>>although small in number there is a good geographic spread -- >>>>>four are from the w. hemisphere, four from the east. I also >>>>>plot the raw composite of the eight sites and scale it to the >>>>>30-90N decadal temp. record. >>>>> >>>>>this record illustrates how the individual sites are related to >>>>>the composite and also why the composite has no dramatically >>>>>warm MWP -- there is no dramatically warm clustering of the >>>>>individual sites. >>>>> >>>>>use or lose as you wish, tom >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >>-- >>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >>Mail and Fedex Address: >> >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>University of Arizona >>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> >> >> > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3943. 2005-06-28 13:19:02 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 13:19:02 -0600 from: Raimund Muscheler subject: Re: solar activity to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, I attached the two papers (Comment to Solanki, Nature, in press) and the review article that we submitted a few weeks ago. Please keep it confidential. Best wishes Raimund >Hi Raimund >sure am interested in this and would like full copy as soon as available >Keith >At 00:05 25/06/2005, you wrote: >>Dear Keith, >> >>Caspar Ammann told me that you are coordinator of the discussion about >>climate change during the last 1000 years. There are conflicting results >>about the changes in solar activity during the last 1000 years (e.g. Bard >>et al., 2000, Usoskin et al., 2003) with potentially important >>implications for the discussion of the influence of natural causes on the >>current climate change. Therefore, we discussed the radionuclide-based >>evidence of past changes in solar activity and the reasons for the >>conflicting results. We also included new calculations about past changes >>in the 14C production rate that we could connect to the instrumental data. >> >>Caspar said that you might be interested to see the paper (I attached the >>title & abstract below). >> >>Best regards >>Raimund >> >> >>Title: >> >>Changes in solar activity during the last 1000 years inferred from >>radionuclide records >> >>Abstract: >>Identification of the causes of past climate change requires detailed >>knowledge of one of the most important natural factors - solar forcing. >>Prior to the period of direct solar observations, radionuclide abundances >>in natural archives provide the best-known proxies for changes in solar >>activity. Here we present two independent reconstructions of changes in >>solar activity during the last 1000 years, which are interred from 14C and >>10Be records. These records exhibit a good agreement that allows us to >>obtain a reliable estimate of past solar magnetic modulation of the >>radionuclide production rates. Differences between 10Be records from >>Antarctica and Greenland indicate that climatic changes have influenced >>the deposition of 10Be during some periods of the last 1000 years. The >>radionuclide-based reconstruction of past changes in solar activity does >>not always agree with the sunspot record, which indicates that the >>coupling between those proxies is not as close as has been assumed by some >>authors. The tree ring 14C record and 10Be from Antarctica indicate that >>recent solar activity is high but not exceptional with respect to the last >>1000 years. >> >> >>Raimund Muscheler >>National Center for Atmospheric Research >>Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology >>1850 Table Mesa Drive >>Boulder, CO 80305-3000 USA >>tel: 303-497-1399 fax: 303-497-1348 >>email: raimund@ucar.edu >> >> > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Muscheler_et_al_Nature_Comm.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Muscheler_et_al_subm_to_ESR.pdf" Raimund Muscheler National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80305-3000 USA tel: 303-497-1399 fax: 303-497-1348 email: raimund@ucar.edu 1136. 2005-06-28 14:47:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 14:47:25 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] abrupt and Important thoughts on References to: "W.R Peltier" Thanks Dick - you put it nicely. In our call today, Eystein gently noted that I might be a bit paranoid about not wanting to run afoul of the skeptics and their growing and powerful disinformation and harassment machine in the US. It IS turning quite nasty in the US, but... I apologize if I'm getting too paranoid. That said, I think we should all be thinking about how our chapter will be received - both by colleagues, but also by the policy makers, leaders of industry and the public. Our goal is to provide the best basis for decision support, and to do so in a way that has not even a sign of bias. As you all work on the next drafts, please think not just about the science, but about how it is conveyed - we have a different audience that we are used to. Feel free to share ideas on how to best word things for policy makers. This is the best shot at making a difference we may get, so we want to make the best of it. Thanks for putting up w/ my rants! best, peck PS - Eystein also pointed out that we are doing better with references than the first time through (the ZOD), so don't leave out anything that is critical. >Without being specific as to which of Jonathan's comments are most >important, I will say that I agree with them whole heartedly. We >will be doing ourselves and our science a disservice to the extent >that this chapter is seen to be about us!---Dick Peltier > > > > > > >At 11:27 AM 28/06/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>Hi all - thanks Fortunat and Stefan for more debate on the 1470. >>Sounds like the final decision is up to Eystein, but I can guess >>the way he's thinking. >> >>With regard to refs - remember that our goal is to cut the number >>of references significantly. Since this is an assessment and not a >>review, we can delete all but the most recent and comprehensive >>references. I don't like cutting out the original refs any more >>than you, but we just don't have room, and its more important to >>have text than exhaustive references. Our colleagues will hopefully >>understand, and if they don't then they need to do an ego check. >>It's more important that we make an impact with policy makers >>rather than with citation indices. >> >>Does this make sense? >> >>In any case, please help make sure we trim the total references >>DOWN in number by a significant number. This is not happening the >>to degree it should. >> >>Also, please not that in the US, the US Congress is questioning >>whether it is ethical for IPCC authors to be using the IPCC to >>champion their own work/opinions. Obviously, this is wrong and >>scary, but if our goal is to get policy makers (liberal and >>conservative alike) to take our chapter seriously, it will only >>hurt our effort if we cite too many of our own papers (perception >>is often reality). PLEASE do not cite anything that is not >>absolutely needed, and please do not cite your papers unless they >>are absolutely needed. Common sense, but it isn't happening. Please >>be more critical with your citations so we save needed space, and >>also so we don't get perceived as self serving or worse. >> >>Again, we can debate this if anyone thinks I've gone off the deep end. >> >>Thanks, peck >>PS - this is not to say anything critical of the refs Fortunat is >>suggesting - we must cite the most relevant papers, and we must be >>as up to date as possible. >> >>>Peck and all, >>> >>>Fully agree. This '1470' yr periodicity is highly controversial and I >>>was never convinced. >>>We can use the space for better things that are relevant in the context >>>of the anthropogenic GHG perturbation. >>> >>>I miss the recent and relevant literature. Examples are Pahnke and Zahn, >>>Science, 2005 and Stocker and Johnsen, Paleoceanography 18, 2003, and >>>Knutti et al., Nature, 2004 >>>Hemitt et al., Rev Geophysics, 2004 might be a good reference for >>>Heinrich events. >>> >>> >>> >>>Regards, >>> >>>Fortunat >>> >>> >>>Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>>> >>>> Hi guys - I'm not aware of the age model changes that Eystein is >>>> talking about (however, I'm not in the Euro meeting circles, and >>>> trust he's right), but I know of several studies (e.g., U/Th dated >>>> (well dated) spelothem studies (plus C14 Cariaco) that indicate that >>>> the GISP/GRIP age models are off by quite a bit pre 40kish. The other >>>> studies agree, so it makes sense to me that the ice core gangs are >>>> revising their age models. Regardless of the probabilities (note that >>>> one finds evidence in quasi-periodic variance most all paleo >>>> records), this significant age model change means that the "1470 >>>> beat" has to be off/wrong or something else other than we've been led >>>> to believe. For the sake of playing it safe, we should play this beat >>>> way down until there is new evidence that is more convincing that it >>>> is for real. We can mention it, but we make it clear that the >>>> evidence for it is not all that strong - at best. >>>> >>>> I'll cc this to Fortunat and Valerie too - we don't want to rush to >>>> conclusions w/o good discussion. >>>> >>>> Thanks, Peck >>>> >>>> >Hi Eystein, >>>> > >>>> >concerning your comment on the 1470-year beat: I'm aware that in the >>>> >new time scale, it is less regular (at least I heard this, have not >>>> >tested myself yet). >>>> > >>>> >If you have two time scales, one showing a regularity and one not, >>>> >then there are two possibilities. >>>> >(1) The regular one is correct, in the other one the regularity got >>>> >wiped out by random dating errors. >>>> >(2) The one without regularity is correct, in the other one a >>>> >regularity arose by chance due to random dating errors. >>> > > >>>> >The likelyhood of the regularity found with the original GISP2 time >>>> >scale occuring by chance is minute - I've done some more >>>> >calculations, they are not complete yet but the likelyhood is in the >>> > >permil range. I think hypothesis (2) can be exluded at least at 99% >>>> >confidence level. >>>> > >>>> >Stefan >>>> > >>>> >-- >>>> >To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de >>>> >(My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) >>>> > >>>> >Stefan Rahmstorf >>>> >www.ozean-klima.de >>>> >www.realclimate.org >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>> Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>>> >>>> Mail and Fedex Address: >>>> >>>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>> University of Arizona >>>> Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >>>-- >>>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern >>>Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern >>>Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 >>>e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Internet: >>>http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ >> >> >>-- >>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >>Mail and Fedex Address: >> >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>University of Arizona >>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>_______________________________________________ >>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 > >Prof W.R Peltier >Dept of Physics, University of Toronto >60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, CANADA, M5S 1A7 >Tel (416)-978-2938 Fax (416)-978-8905 >email peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1245. 2005-06-28 20:39:30 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 20:39:30 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: message... to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, sorry I missed your phone message. In the middle of the move to Penn State Univ., and of course I've been busy dealing w/ all of this other business... easiest to reach me at my cell phone over next few days---feel free to call me there if you have a chance, its 434-227-6969... thanks, mike ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 3753. 2005-06-28 23:57:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 23:57:15 +0200 from: Valérie Masson-Delmotte subject: Re: IPCC ch9 for information and check. to: Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by cirse.extra.cea.fr id j5SLvFxj010843 Dear Keith, I have read your text - despite of the heat wave here (40°C in my office in the afternoon...). I am a bit puzzled by the regional aspects. I think that you should make more clear in the beginning that there is very little new information / work conducted on the S Hemisphere / tropics and that most efforts have been focussed on the N Hemisphere, because you mention almost nothing for the S Hemisphere. Is ENSO considered as a regional mode of variability? I thought that it had almost global relevance at least in terms of impacts. Valérie. Keith Briffa a écrit : > Pascale > I am sending what I sent Peck and Eystein > The regional stuff at the end is from Ricardo Villalba and will need > to be shortened /rewritten after advice from CLAs. Please note this is > only provisional and I have had no feedback from other LA and CLAs and > the text needs to be vetted/chopped or whatever. Please note also that > the blue text will likely disappear - no space. The Figure legends are > at the back of the text file. I will send Figures as a separate message > cheers > Keith > At 15:52 23/06/2005, Pascale Braconnot wrote: > >> Dear all, >> >> Here is what I send today to gaby and francis as a contribution for >> the first draft for chapt 9.3 >> >> We know we have overlap between the two chapters (9 and 6). We need >> to make sure that the point of view is different (or slightly). >> in particular, chapter 6 days much more about the data (I nearly >> supress all ref to data in 9), and may be also on model evaluation >> (which i do not mention as such). >> >> It could be nice you send me your parts in chapter 6 when ready. I >> will have only a small time to adapt the chapt 9 contribution and >> make changes in July. >> >> How things will work in chapter9 in the coming month. >> >> CLA recieved all the contributions, they work together next week >> (i still need to interact with gbi for the last millenium part and >> the update of the figure on detection: attribution, but gabi didn't >> had time to do it at the moment). >> >> Then Gabi and Francis will return comments to us (as well as internal >> comments withing LA of the chapter) and last changes will be provided >> for the end of July. >> >> On my side I am out of contact (mail etc) starting 22 July. >> I need thus to finish every thing for July 20. >> >> I hope the draft 1 writing is going on well on your side >> >> Cheers >> >> Pascale >> >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\masson119.vcf" 3208. 2005-06-29 13:43:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 29 Jun 2005 13:43:13 -0400 from: David Appell subject: Barton letters to MBH to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Dr. Osborn, Hi. I'm a freelance science journalist.... I was wondering about your thoughts on the Rep. Barton/Whitfield letters received by Mann, Bradley, and Hughes. (Mann suggested I contact you.) I don't have an assignment to write about them yet, though I'm trying, but meantime I'm reporting on the issue at my Weblog, http://www.davidappell.com . Would you care to make any comment that I can quote there? Thanks, David -- David Appell, freelance science journalist e: appell@nasw.org p: 603-659-1892 w: http://www.nasw.org/users/appell m: 26H Piscassic St. #208, Newmarket, NH 03857 586. 2005-06-30 09:52:29 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Thu, 30 Jun 2005 09:52:29 -0400 from: "W.R Peltier" subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Emailing: IPCC6.3.3FOD.doc to: Valerie.Masson@cea.fr Hi Valerie, Thanks for your input----I'll attempt to integrate your comments into the next draft of the sea level section. Cheers Dick At 05:15 AM 30/06/2005, Valérie Masson-Delmotte wrote: >Dear all, > >A few comments on Dick's text > >- title : should be modified to "sea level changes during THE LAST glacial >interglacial cycle" (mainly discussed here) >- structure : I would suggest to focus on specific questions maybe by time >scale, more explicitely >- a few typos (.. instead of ., Cuffy instead of Cuffey) >- as for sea level changes inferred from the conventional approach I would >suggest to refer to Waelbroeck et al QSR 2002 which also takes into >account the effects of deep water temperatures on the interpretation of >benthic foram 18O for sea level reconstructions >- a good review paper for the last interglacial period sea level is found >in Muhs et al Quat Res 2002 >- should we be as precise as one decimeter for the LGM sea level change? I >thought that the uncertainty was in terms of meters. >- the argument about the Holocene sea level is also given in the Holocene >section (6.4.1.7), should it disappear from there? >- the sentence starting by "a recent review..." is strange because the >paper cited for a methodology applied by others is older than the review >- for the Greenland contribution to sea level I think that the most >accurrate constraint comes from the North GRIP 2004 paper (Cuffey and >Marshall and Tarasov and Peltier had several scenarios where the Greenland >ice sheet was forced by estimated climate histories based on Vostok for >the Eemian; the NGRIP data enable to have a local climate scenario and >discriminate among the various modelling sensitivity studies, which, by >the way, did not have the large basal geothermal heat flow derived from >the NorthGRIP borehole T profile). >- the 6 line long sentence starting by "this is an important thought >still..." (second page, middle part) could be separated in several sentences. > >Valérie. > >W.R Peltier a écrit : > >>Dear Colleagues, >> This is the first of Section 6.3.3 for the FOD. There are still a >> few rough spots that I will sort out tomorrow morning but I thought that >> you should see the direction in which I was heading. I decided to keep >> (but have considerably revised) the discussion on the contamination of >> the rate of rsl rise measured using the T/P satellite system by the GIA >> process. This result is now being widely used by the community and is >> generally seen to an important contribution of the paleo-climate >> community since the TAR. The new Figure I've produced could easily be >> moved into Chapter 5 together with the paragraph describing it. Since I >> have not heard anything back from Willebrand on how our Chapter 5 >> colleagues intend to deal with this issue I believe that we should >> include it in this section of our chapter together with the Figure and >> leave it to the next stage of discussion to decide finally how the AR4 >> will handle it. The new Figure on this will be forwarded tomorrow. I >> believe that you all have the Figure previously produced describing the >> variation of sea level from the Eemian interglacial to the present. >>Dick >> >> >> >> >> >> >>IPCC6.3.3FOD.doc >> >> >> >>Note: To protect against computer viruses, e-mail programs may prevent >>sending or receiving certain types of file attachments. Check your >>e-mail security settings to determine how attachments are handled. >> >>Prof W.R Peltier >>Dept of Physics, University of Toronto >>60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, CANADA, M5S 1A7 >>Tel (416)-978-2938 Fax (416)-978-8905 >>email peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca >> >>------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> >>_______________________________________________ >>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >>Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >>http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 > > > Prof W.R Peltier Dept of Physics, University of Toronto 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, CANADA, M5S 1A7 Tel (416)-978-2938 Fax (416)-978-8905 email peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 567. 2005-07-01 12:46:59 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Stephen Schneider , "Wahl, Eugene R" , Keith Briffa date: Fri, 1 Jul 2005 12:46:59 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: What's up with your paper with Eugene? to: Caspar Ammann Hi Caspar and Gene - Thanks. I look forward to hearing how things go - if the paper is in press by the first week of August, we'll cite it in the Chapter 6 of the FOD, but otherwise I guess it'll have to wait - that's ok too. But... keep us posted (and send revised preprint when possible). Thanks! Peck >Hi Peck, > >you might have heard.. the thing is flying in everybody's face right >now... Mike-Ray-Malcolm, IPCC and NSF got these lovely letters from >the House of Representatives... > >Now, I know of - and already have in hand - comments by two reviews >of the WA paper, both strongly positive. Steve is probably waiting >on the Canadians to finish theirs. There were two requests for >additional information over the course of the review so far, I hope >no other one is required that delays the process. I cc Steve, he >might give you the best perspective on the progress. Gene is going >to be at NCAR in early July and we will finish with revisions ASAP. > >I hope this helps for now. I'm currently in Rome at a meeting on >Sun-Climate links, >Caspar > > >Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > >>Hi Caspar - we're working on the IPCC chapter and wonder if you >>could pls update us w/ the status of Wahl and Ammann? Most >>important - will it be in press by the end of the month? >> >>Thanks! Peck > > >-- >Caspar M. Ammann >National Center for Atmospheric Research >Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology >1850 Table Mesa Drive >Boulder, CO 80307-3000 >email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 1531. 2005-07-03 16:32:08 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Valerie Masson-Delmotte , Eystein Jansen , Tim Osborn date: Sun, 03 Jul 2005 16:32:08 +0200 from: Valérie Masson-Delmotte subject: Re: Law Dome figure to: Ricardo Villalba I agree with you that there is an ambiguity in the Law Dome signal, especially between 18O and borehole temperature. I think, based on our deuterium excess data (published in the PhD of Marc Delmotte and in the Goosse paper) that the "medieval" signal in the 18O record is due to changing evaporation conditions, but this still remains to be confirmed from similar analyses on other sites. Unfortunately, to my knowledge, this is the only place in Antarctica where an inversion of the borehole profile has been attempted with enough resolution to cover the past centuries. There had been calibration studies such as these refered to by Ricardo, at seasonal, interannual and decadal scales (Van Ommen and Morgan; Jones; Masson-Delmotte). I do not know exactly how Jones obtained the temperature recontsruction displayed in his paper (not enough details). Valérie Ricardo Villalba a écrit : > Hi All, > > I totally agree with Tim. Ambiguities in the Law Dome records was the major > reason to not include any of the records in the SH figure. I prefer to > leave the SH figure as it and discuss the Law Dome ambiguities in the text. > Cheers, > > Ricardo > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tim Osborn" > To: "Jonathan Overpeck" ; "Ricardo Villalba" > ; "Keith Briffa" ; "Valerie > Masson-Delmotte" ; "Eystein Jansen" > > Sent: Tuesday, July 18, 2006 10:57 AM > Subject: Re: Law Dome figure > > > >> Hi all, >> >> (1) Jones/Mann showed (and Mann/Jones used in their reconstruction) >> an isotope record from Law Dome that is probably O18 (they say >> "oxygen isotopes"). This has a "cold" present-day and "warm" MWP >> (indeed relatively "warm" throughout the 1000-1750 period). The >> review comments from sceptics wanted us to show this for obvious >> reasons. But its interpretation is ambiguous and I think (though I'm >> not certain) that it has been used to indicate atmospheric >> circulation changes rather than temperature changes by some authors >> (Souney et al., JGR, 2002). >> >> (2) Goosse et al. showed Deuterium excess as an indicator of Southern >> Ocean SST (rather than local temperature). Goosse et al. also showed >> a composite of 4 Antarctic ice core records (3 deuterium, 1 >> O18). Neither of these comes up to the 20th century making plotting >> on the same scale as observed temperature rather tricky! >> >> (3) Dahl-Jensen showed the temperatures obtained by inverting the >> borehole temperature profiles. This has a colder MWP relative to the >> recent period, which shows strong recent warming. >> >> I have data from (1) and now from (3) too, but not from (2) though I >> could ask Hugues Goosse for (2). Anyway, (1) and (2) aren't >> calibrated reconstructions like the others in the Southern Hemisphere >> figure, so plotting them would alter the nature of the figure. >> >> But if we show only (3) then we will be accused of (cherry-)picking >> that (and not showing (1) as used by Mann/Jones) because it showed >> what we wanted/expected. >> >> Can I, therefore, leave the SH figure unchanged and can we just >> discuss the Law Dome ambiguities in the text? >> >> Cheers >> >> Tim >> >> At 02:41 18/07/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >> >>> Hi Tim, Ricardo and Keith - Valerie just reminded me that she sent >>> this to us all (minus Tim) back in June. There is plenty below for >>> discussion in the text, and the Law Dome borehole data can be >>> obtained at the site below (http://www.nbi.ku.dk/side95613.htm). >>> This is the record that should be added to the SH figure. >>> >>> Thanks, Peck >>> >>> >>>> X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >>>> Date: Wed, 28 Jun 2006 12:44:50 +0200 >>>> From: Valérie Masson-Delmotte >>>> Reply-To: Valerie.Masson@cea.fr >>>> Organization: LSCE >>>> To: Jonathan Overpeck , >>>> Ricardo Villalba , >>>> Keith Briffa >>>> Subject: (pas de sujet) >>>> >>>> Dear Ricardo and Peck, >>>> >>>> Here are the references for the Law Dome temperature discussion : >>>> >>>> * stack of Antarctic ice cores and Law Dome deuterium excess >>>> profile (showing large changes in moisture source) >>>> >>>> Title: *A late medieval warm period in the Southern Ocean as a >>>> delayed response to external forcing?* >>>> Author(s): *Goosse H* >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Goosse+H&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3>, > >>>> *Masson-Delmotte V* >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Masson-Delmotte+V&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1 > /3>, > >>>> Renssen H >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Renssen+H&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3>, > >>>> Delmotte M >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Delmotte+M&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3>, > >>>> Fichefet T >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Fichefet+T&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3>, > >>>> Morgan V >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Morgan+V&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3>, > >>>> van Ommen T >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=van+Ommen+T&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3>, > >>>> Khim BK >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Khim+BK&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3>, > >>>> Stenni B >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Stenni+B&curr_doc=1/3&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=1/3> > >>>> Source: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 31 (6): Art. No. L06203 MAR 17 2004 >>>> Document Type: Article >>>> Language: English >>>> Abstract: On the basis of long simulations performed with a >>>> three-dimensional climate model, we propose an interhemispheric >>>> climate lag mechanism, involving the long-term memory of deepwater >>>> masses. Warm anomalies, formed in the North Atlantic when warm >>>> conditions prevail at surface, are transported by the deep ocean >>>> circulation towards the Southern Ocean. There, the heat is released >>>> because of large scale upwelling, maintaining warm conditions and >>>> inducing a lagged response of about 150 years compared to the >>>> Northern Hemisphere. Model results and observations covering the >>>> first half of the second millenium suggest a delay between the >>>> temperature evolution in the Northern Hemisphere and in the >>>> Southern Ocean. The mechanism described here provides a reasonable >>>> hypothesis to explain such an interhemipsheric lag. >>>> KeyWords Plus: CLIMATE-CHANGE; ICE CORE; LAW DOME; TEMPERATURES; >>>> ANTARCTICA; PALEOCLIMATE; CIRCULATION; MILLENNIUM; RECORDS; SIGNAL >>>> >>>> * borehole temperature profile from Law Dome : >>>> Title: *Monte Carlo inverse modelling of the Law Dome (Antarctica) >>>> temperature profile* >>>> Author(s): *DahlJensen D* >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=DahlJensen+D&curr_doc=4/15&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=4/15> > , > >>>> Morgan VI >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Morgan+VI&curr_doc=4/15&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=4/15>, > >>>> Elcheikh A >>>> >>> >> > Search&field=AU&val=Elcheikh+A&curr_doc=4/15&Form=FullRecordPage&doc=4/15> > >>>> Source: ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY, VOL 29, 1999 ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY 29: >>>> 145-150 1999 >>>> Document Type: Article >>>> Language: English >>>> >>>> Abstract: The temperature profile in the 1200 m deep Dome Summit >>>> South (DSS) borehole near the summit of Law Dome, Antarctica, was >>>> measured in 1996, 3 years after the termination of the deep drilling. >>>> >>>> The temperature profile contains information on past surface >>>> temperature over the last 4 ka. This temperature history is >>>> determined by the use of a Monte Carlo inverse method in which no >>>> constraints are placed on the unknown temperature history and no >>>> solution is assumed to be unique. The temperature history is >>>> obtained from a selection of equally well-fitting solutions by a >>>> statistical treatment. >>>> >>>> The results show that solutions covering the last 4 ka have a >>>> well-developed central value, a most likely temperature history. >>>> The temperature record has two well-developed minima at: AD 1250 >>>> and 1850. From 1850 to the present, temperatures have gradually >>>> increased by 0.7 K. The reconstructed temperatures are compared >>>> with the stable oxygen isotope (delta(18)O) from the DSS ice core. >>>> >>>> => The inversed temperature data are available on the GFY web site at : >>>> http://www.nbi.ku.dk/side95613.htm, go to "Dye 3, GRIP, Law Dome >>>> temperature reconstructed from borehole measurements" >>>> >>>> * Regarding the calibration issue there are several publications : >>>> - seasonal calibration between 18O and T : >>>> >>>> [van Ommen and Morgan, 1997a] >>>> >>> >> > 20Ommen%20-%20delT.pdf> > >>>> Tas D. van Ommen and Vin Morgan. Calibrating the ice core >>>> paleothermometer using seasonality. J. Geophys. Res., >>>> 102(D8):9351-9357, 1997, [AAD Cat. Ref. 7488]. >>>> >>>> [van Ommen and Morgan, 1997b] >>>> >>> >> > 20Ommen%20-%20delTcorr.pdf> > >>>> Tas D. van Ommen and Vin Morgan. Correction to "Calibrating the ice >>>> core paleothermometer using seasonality". J. Geophys. Res., >>>> 102(D25):30,165, 1997, [AAD Cat. Ref. 8236]. >>>> >>>> - decadal calibration from a high resolution ice core (using >>>> deuterium excess) >>>> >>>> *Recent southern Indian Ocean climate variability inferred from a >>>> Law Dome ice core: new insights for the interpretation of coastal >>>> Antarctic isotopic records* >>>> V. Masson-Delmotte ^A1 , M. Delmotte ^A1 A4 , V. Morgan ^A2 , D. >>>> Etheridge ^A3 , T. van Ommen ^A2 , S. Tartarin ^A1 , G. Hoffmann >>>> >>>> Stable isotopes in water have been measured along a very high >>>> accumulation ice core from Law Dome on the east Antarctic coast. >>>> These enable a detailed comparison of the isotopic records over >>>> sixty years (1934-1992) with local (Antarctic station data) and >>>> remote meteorological observations (atmospheric reanalyses and >>>> sea-surface temperature estimates) on a seasonal to inter-annual >>>> time scale. Using both observations and isotopic atmospheric >>>> general circulation model (GCM) results, we quantify the >>>> relationships between stable isotopes (d ^18 O, dD and deuterium >>>> excess; /d/ = dD -8 × d ^18 O) with site and source temperature at >>>> seasonal and decadal time scales, showing the large imprint of >>>> source conditions on Law Dome isotopes. These calibrations provide >>>> new insights for the quantitative interpretation of temporal >>>> isotopic fluctuations from coastal Antarctic ice cores. An abrupt >>>> change in the local meridional atmospheric circulation is clearly >>>> identified from Law Dome deuterium excess during the 1970s and >>>> analysed using GCM simulations. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Valérie. >>>> >>> -- >>> Jonathan T. Overpeck >>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>> Professor, Department of Geosciences >>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>> >>> Mail and Fedex Address: >>> >>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>> University of Arizona >>> Tucson, AZ 85721 >>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >> Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow >> Climatic Research Unit >> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >> Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >> >> e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >> phone: +44 1603 592089 >> fax: +44 1603 507784 >> web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >> sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm >> >> **Norwich -- City for Science: >> **Hosting the BA Festival 2-9 September 2006 >> >> >> > > > 3018. 2005-07-04 21:53:23 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa date: Mon, 4 Jul 2005 21:53:23 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper to: "Wahl, Eugene R" Hi Gene - good to hear from you. What you list below seems like it must be pretty good to me. Of course, we'd like to include all we can in the FOD, hence the interest in knowing if it's in press or not before the end of the month. Just keep us updated, and if you feel comfortable sharing the ms. that'd be great, but only if you feel ok about sharing it. The key people are me, Eystein Jansen and Keith Briffa - we won't share it with others. Thanks for keeping us up to date. Best, peck >Hello Jonathan: > >Thanks for this info. Could you clue me in--I had heard through the >grapevine (ultimate source, Jerry Meehl) that the actual in-press >deadline for IPCC citations in the AR would be Jan 1 of 2006. On >the IPCC website I see mid-December for the Christchurch meeting. > >I assume this the same situation for Chapter 6, and thus the early >August deadline is for the FOD. Is this getting it correct? > >Let me know if viewing the submitted text would be of use to you, >and I'll ship at once. > > >Hope you are well. > >Peace, Gene >Dr. Eugene R. Wahl >Asst. Professor of Environmental Studies >Alfred University > >607-871-2604 >1 Saxon Drive >Alfred, NY 14802 > >________________________________ > >From: Jonathan Overpeck [mailto:jto@u.arizona.edu] >Sent: Fri 7/1/2005 2:46 PM >To: Caspar Ammann >Cc: Eystein Jansen; Stephen Schneider; Wahl, Eugene R; Keith Briffa >Subject: Re: What's up with your paper with Eugene? > > > >Hi Caspar and Gene - Thanks. I look forward to hearing how things go >- if the paper is in press by the first week of August, we'll cite it >in the Chapter 6 of the FOD, but otherwise I guess it'll have to wait >- that's ok too. > >But... keep us posted (and send revised preprint when possible). Thanks! Peck > >>Hi Peck, >> >>you might have heard.. the thing is flying in everybody's face right >>now... Mike-Ray-Malcolm, IPCC and NSF got these lovely letters from >>the House of Representatives... >> >>Now, I know of - and already have in hand - comments by two reviews >>of the WA paper, both strongly positive. Steve is probably waiting >>on the Canadians to finish theirs. There were two requests for >>additional information over the course of the review so far, I hope >>no other one is required that delays the process. I cc Steve, he >>might give you the best perspective on the progress. Gene is going >>to be at NCAR in early July and we will finish with revisions ASAP. >> >>I hope this helps for now. I'm currently in Rome at a meeting on >>Sun-Climate links, >>Caspar >> >> >>Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >> >>>Hi Caspar - we're working on the IPCC chapter and wonder if you >>>could pls update us w/ the status of Wahl and Ammann? Most >>>important - will it be in press by the end of the month? >>> >>>Thanks! Peck >> >> >>-- >>Caspar M. Ammann >>National Center for Atmospheric Research >>Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology >>1850 Table Mesa Drive >>Boulder, CO 80307-3000 >>email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 385. 2005-07-05 10:15:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jul 5 10:15:39 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: FW: Your graph regarding global temperature anomaly to: heino.schmid@aon.at Dear Heinrich, There are a multitude of explanations of the course of temperature change during the 20th century. These are discussed in the various IPCC reports. The warming from 1915 to about 1940 is generally believed to be due to a slight increase in solar output and a reduction in volcanism. The recent warming from 1975 is due to the build-up of greenhouse gases, as they begin to dominate over sulphate aerosol releases. The slight cooling from 1940 to 1975 is thought to be due to industrial development (using lots of dirty coal) increasing aerosol emissions. WWII is not thought to have had any impact. On all the above there is natural variability which could have caused some of the changes even without any external forcing (greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar, volcanoes etc) as we have had warm and cold decades in the past when there was little changes in external influences. I hope this short reply helps. The best things to read are the IPCC reports. Regards Phil -----Original Message----- From: Heinrich Schmid [[1]mailto:heino.schmid@aon.at] Sent: Sunday, June 26, 2005 8:35 AM To: cru@uea.ac.uk Subject: Your graph regarding global temperature anomaly Sir, viewing the graph one recognizes a significant change in direction at about the year 1910. Then there is another change at about 1940 and again at about 1975. This period between 1940 and 1975 could be interpreted as being due to the negative forcing of the dust and smoke created during WWII. Your response would be appreciated. This interpretation would have significant implications to our understanding of global warming Sincerely Heinrich Schmid Kellertal 171 A-6410 Pettnau Austria Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2453. 2005-07-05 14:00:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jul 5 14:00:11 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Re: NEED HELP! to: "Neville Nicholls" Neville, Mike's draft reply - needs some work. Again keep top yourself. Nothing though that you wouldn't expect. The responses that Tim Osborn kept about E&E might be useful for your talk in Perth. They illustrate nicely that there is peer review and peer review ! Cheers Phil X-Sender: mem6u@holocene.evsc.virginia.edu X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.1.1 Date: Mon, 27 Jun 2005 14:01:44 -0400 To: Tim Osborn From: "Michael E. Mann" Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: NEED HELP! Cc: santer1@llnl.gov, wigley@ucar.edu, Keith Briffa , Phil Jones , Bradley Raymond , Hughes Malcolm X-Spam-Score: 1.7 X-Spam-Level: + X-Spam-Flag: NO Dear Tim, Here is a draft of my response to the congressional inquiry. Please let me know if you have any comments (in particular, if the way I have cited your submitted paper is ok??). thanks again for your help, mike At 08:35 AM 6/27/2005, Tim Osborn wrote: At 17:00 25/06/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Tim/Keith/Phil, Please see attached letter from the U.S. House republicans. As Tom has mentioned below, it would be very helpful if I can get feedback from you all as I proceed w/ drafting a formal response. Thanks in advance for any help, mike Dear Mike, Malcolm and Ray I was shocked to see how blatantly this committee has been subverted by the anti-greenhouse lobby. It is an outrageous request in many ways, not least in the amount of effort that it will take to gather together all the information and respond; e.g. point 4 -- provide all data, and (it seems) computer code, documentation, etc., related to any paper that you authored or co-authored! It would take me months to organize and document the 100s-1000s programs and 10s-100s of GB of data which have been used in papers with my name on! Even if the committee's review doesn't come to a conclusion that the anti-greenhouse lobby likes, they will still consider it a victory if they tie up your time for a number of months. Is there any way of reducing the efforts involved -- perhaps by requesting the committee to say which papers they wish to focus on? I haven't spoken to Keith or Phil yet, but I'm sure we will help where we can. Here are two specific things: (1) Tom mentioned a paper that we've submitted that has relevance to von Storch et al. (2004). It's still under review so I don't want it distributed far, but in case a copy hasn't found its way to you yet, the submitted manuscript is attached. The focus is not, in fact, on the von Storch et al. study, but is instead on the ECHO-G simulation that they used. We use MAGICC to show that the atypical ECHO-G behaviour can be mainly attributed to relatively large disequilibrium in the initial conditions and to the omission of any anthropogenic tropospheric sulphate cooling towards the end of the run. Our final conclusion on page 15 might be useful for you: we do not discount the bias in climate reconstructions suggested by von Storch, but we do show that the size of the bias would likely have been much smaller if ECHO-G didn't have the unrealistic behaviour that we identified. To emphasize again: we don't invalide von Storch's results, we just cast doubt on the magnitude of the bias. (2) Tom also suggests that you raise questions regarding the reviewing of papers that attack your work. This is a good idea. I can help with some insight into the "review process" (in the loosest sense!) that was used for M&M's first paper in Energy & Environment. I've attached an edited response from that "journal's" editor, Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen, to some questions I raised. The editor clearly indicates that there was very little peer-review. Publication was speeded up for purely political reasons, with scientific review losing in the trade off with policy. The limited review that apparently took place used reviewers who were selected because they were not "part of the anti-skeptics bandwagon" rather than for having the necessary expertise. From which I read that she only selected skeptics. I haven't forwarded this before, though I have alluded to these admissions from the editor to some of you, because the editor implied that she was responding in confidence. But in light of the challenge that you are now facing, I thought it would be fair to give you this information. Best wishes Tim From: "Sonja.B-C" Date: Thu, 6 Nov 2003 21:52:12 +0000 To: Tim Osborn Subject: Re: McIntyre-McKitrick and Mann-Bradley-Hughes Dear Tim Thanks for your considered reponse from Norwich.... I respond in CAPITALS IN TEXT. Please consider this for UEA eyes only; I am very honest... Sonja On Wed, 05 Nov 2003 10:44:23 Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear Sonja, > > Below are some responses to your message that was forwarded from the > climatsceptics mailing list... > > The interesting thing about their preliminary response, however, is that it > indicates that the difference in results might be fully explained by a > simple error in not using many of the early tree-ring data. If this is > confirmed by their fuller response, then, even though there may be some > problems with the proxy data used by Mann et al., it implies that these > problems do not actually make a lot of difference to the results - the main > difference comes from omitting the early tree-ring data. A paper that > identifies some problems with the proxy data used by Mann et al. would > still be interesting, but if these problems made very little difference to > the results obtained, then it would be of rather minor importance. ... I ALSO BELIEVE THAT MCINTYRE AND MCKINTRICK HAVE MORE CRITICISMS TO MAKE (HENCE THE EMAIL TO STEVE). (STEVE, NEXT TIME, IF THERE IS ONE, WE MIGHT LET MANN HAVE LOOK IN ADVANCE, BUT NO PROMISE...THIS TIME I WAS RUSHING YOU TO GET THIS PAPER OUT FOR POLICY IMPACT REASONS, EG. PUBLICATION WELL BEFORE COP9. TIM, HOW ELSE DO YOU THINK A SMALL JOURNAL RUN BY TWO PEOPLE VERY PART TIME CAN ATTRACT PAPERS OF BROADER INTEREST IF NOT BY DOING THINGS QUICKLY?... THE M&M PAPER WAS AMENDED UNTIL THE VERY LAST MOMENT. THERE WAS A TRADE OFF IN FAVOUR OF POLICY, AND THIS IS A DECISION I STAND BY. SCIENCE DEBATES SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN PUBLIC IF THEY HAVE MAJOR POLICY RELEVANCE. > > I will finish by asking a few questions about Energy and Environment and > the peer-reviewing of this paper, which I hope you will be able and willing > to answer. > > (1) Mann et al. assert that they were not given the opportunity to review > the McIntyre and McKitrick paper. It would be nice if you could confirm > that assertion, to ensure that we don't propagate any inaccuracies. You > might also want to comment on whether this is reasonable or not, for a > paper that is a direct response to their original paper. > TRUE, BUT I HAD NO IDEA THAT HE, OR SCIENTIFIC ETHICS, EXPECTED THIS... IN THIS CASE IT WAS ALSO ONE OF SPEED THINK HOW LONG IT WOULD TAKE TO ALLOW RESPONSES, AND COUNTER RESPONSES.. IN MY VIEW IT IS STILL BETTER IF THIS TAKES PLACE IN PUBLIC SO THAT ALL CAN SEE THE ARGUMENTS USED IN HIGHLY CONTESTED AREAS. > (2) The McIntyre and McKitrick paper does not seem to have submission, > acceptance or publication dates on it. Does E&E not normally do this? If > you do, then I'd be interested to know what these dates are. NO WE DONT, WE ARE A TINY OUTFIT, LARGELY UNPAID, NO GLOSSY JOURNAL, AND WE HAVE NEVER WORKED TO SUCH DATES. THIS PAPER WAS AMENED UNTIL THE VERY LAST MINUTE AND I WATCHED IT BEING WRITTEN OVER SEVERAL MONTHS WITH A LOT OF HELP, AS ACKNOWLDEGED. I THEN SEND IT OUT TO ANOTHER 5 PEOPLE WHO ONLY had a few days to respond TO THE AUTHORS DIRECT, BUT ALL DID EXCEPT ONE WHO NEVER GOT IT...) . SOME WERE VERY SENIOR SCIENTISTS INDEED BUT WHO WERE CHOSEN BECAUSE THEY WERE NOT PART OF THE ANTI- SKEPTICS BANDWAGON. AT THIS STAGE I WANTED IMPROVEMENTS NOT FUNDAMENTAL CRITIQUE ...THE REAL DEBATE SHOULD COME AFTER PUBLICATION. THESE REPLIES CONTAINED NO RESERVATIONS RE PUBLICATION, ONLY ADMISSIONS THAT SOME THINGS HAD TO BE TAKEN ON TRUST AND THAT NONE HAD A LOOK AT THE ORIGINAL DATA. ---------------------- Dr.Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen Reader,Department of Geography, Editor, Energy & Environment (Multi-science,[1]www.multi-science.co.uk) Faculty of Science University of Hull Hull HU6 7RX, UK Tel: (0)1482 465349/6341/5385 Fax: (0)1482 466340 Sonja.B-C@hull.ac.uk Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4910. 2005-07-06 08:57:41 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jul 6 08:57:41 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Misc to: n.nicholls@bom.gov.au Neville, Here's an email from John, with the trend from his latest version in. Also has trends for RATPAC and HadAT2. If you can stress in your talks that it is more likely the sondes are wrong - at least as a group. Some may be OK individually. The tropical ones are the key, but it is these that least is know about except for a few regions. The sondes clearly show too much cooling in the stratosphere (when compared to MSU4), and I reckon this must also affect their upper troposphere trends as well. So, John may be putting too much faith in them wrt agreement with UAH. Happy for you to use the figure, if you don't pass on to anyone else. Watch out for Science though and the Mears/Wentz paper if it ever comes out. Also, do point out that looking at surface trends from 1998 isn't very clever. Cheers Phil Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 07:59:51 -0500 From: John Christy User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; PPC Mac OS X Mach-O; en-US; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Phil Jones Subject: Misc X-NSSTC-MailScanner: Found to be clean X-NSSTC-MailScanner-SpamCheck: not spam (whitelisted), SpamAssassin (score=-5.8, required 5, BAYES_01 -5.40, RCVD_IN_ORBS 0.11, SIGNATURE_LONG_SPARSE -0.49, USER_AGENT_MOZILLA_UA 0.00) X-MailScanner-From: john.christy@nsstc.uah.edu X-Spam-Score: 0.0 X-Spam-Level: / X-Spam-Flag: NO Hi Phil: I've been getting round-about versions of rumors concerning our newly adjusted version 5.2 LT dataset. I believe I had indicated earlier to you that the correction was within our published margin of error. In any case here are the numbers that describe various aspects of v5.2 1979-2004 Global Trend +0.115 UAH, +0.125 RATPAC and +0.137 HadAT (note, when subsampled for the same latitudes in which sonde observations are available, UAH and HadAT are almost exactly the same.) Update of site by site comparison of UAH LT 5.2 and SH radiosondes from Christy and Norris 2004: All 87 SH stations, no adjustments Raobs + 0.028 UAH +0.040 74 best sites with adjustments Raobs +0.030 UAH +0.054 These SH changes from the original publication were very minor because most stations were outside the tropics where the diurnal error had essentially no impact. A paper by Sherwood claims that Day minus Night is a legitimate way to go about looking at sonde problems. The real problem though is that Day minus Night is only an indicator of a sonde change, it does not determine the change itself. Most notorious is the Philipps Mark III to Vaisala RS-80 where the night warmed by about 0.3 C and the day by a little bit less, which means the Day minus Night reveals a negative shift when in fact both ob times have a significant positive shift (these sondes form a signifciant part of the LKS dataset). Similar results occur for US VIZ mini-art 2 to Micro-art software in 1990. I have many other sone comparisons, and all are more consistent with the UAH trends more than RSS and certainly VG. Indeed, I was curious to see that your name was on VG's latest paper. I wish I had time to fill you in on why the addition of the non-linear terms is a red herring (both UAH and RSS have performed the calculations with and without the non-linear terms with no impact on the trends) and why the latitudinal difference for calculating the coefficients leads one astray. I'm a little nervous now that you may have a "dog in this fight" as we say in Alabama while writing up the IPCC. I expect my sonde comparisons to be included in the IPCC and I will have further results demonstrating the problems with the Day minus Night technique within a few months. I've lots to do now. Thanks for listening. John C. -- ************************************************************ John R. Christy Director, Earth System Science Center voice: 256-961-7763 Professor, Atmospheric Science fax: 256-961-7751 Alabama State Climatologist University of Alabama in Huntsville [1]http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html Mail: ESSC-Cramer Hall/University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville AL 35899 Express: Cramer Hall/ESSC, 320 Sparkman Dr., Huntsville AL 35805 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2252. 2005-07-06 15:07:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jul 6 15:07:45 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Misc to: "Neville Nicholls" Neville, Mike's response could do with a little work, but as you say he's got the tone almost dead on. I hope I don't get a call from congress ! I'm hoping that no-one there realizes I have a US DoE grant and have had this (with Tom W.) for the last 25 years. I'll send on one other email received for interest. Cheers Phil At 14:21 06/07/2005, you wrote: Thanks Phil. I had seen the estimates of 0.12C for UAH 5.2, but wasnt sure if the version producing these trends had all the months corrected, and that John was happy with the corrections (I had heard that his initial estimate was that the change made a major difference to the trends, but that later calulations didnt support this). I think I have a pretty good idea now of the trends in the various data sets. I have seen the Mears/Wentz paper, but will watch out for John's paper (I know I could have asked John about all of this, but I suspect he feels a bit over-burdened and harrassed at the moment, and I didnt want to add to the pressure on him, so thanks for passing this stuff on to me). I thought Mike Mann's draft response was pretty good - I had expected something more vigorous, but I think he has got the "tone" pretty right. Do you expect to get a call from Congress? Neville Nicholls Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre 9th Floor, 700 Collins Street Docklands,Melbourne, AUSTRALIA PO Box 1289K, Melbourne, AUSTRALIA 3001 Phone: +61 (0)3 9669 4407 Fax: +61 (0)3 9669 4660 -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Wed 7/6/2005 5:57 PM To: Neville Nicholls Subject: Fwd: Misc Neville, Here's an email from John, with the trend from his latest version in. Also has trends for RATPAC and HadAT2. If you can stress in your talks that it is more likely the sondes are wrong - at least as a group. Some may be OK individually. The tropical ones are the key, but it is these that least is know about except for a few regions. The sondes clearly show too much cooling in the stratosphere (when compared to MSU4), and I reckon this must also affect their upper troposphere trends as well. So, John may be putting too much faith in them wrt agreement with UAH. Happy for you to use the figure, if you don't pass on to anyone else. Watch out for Science though and the Mears/Wentz paper if it ever comes out. Also, do point out that looking at surface trends from 1998 isn't very clever. Cheers Phil >Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2005 07:59:51 -0500 >From: John Christy >User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; PPC Mac OS X Mach-O; en-US; rv:1.4) >Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 >X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >To: Phil Jones >Subject: Misc >X-NSSTC-MailScanner: Found to be clean >X-NSSTC-MailScanner-SpamCheck: not spam (whitelisted), > SpamAssassin (score=-5.8, required 5, BAYES_01 -5.40, > RCVD_IN_ORBS 0.11, SIGNATURE_LONG_SPARSE -0.49, > USER_AGENT_MOZILLA_UA 0.00) >X-MailScanner-From: john.christy@nsstc.uah.edu >X-Spam-Score: 0.0 >X-Spam-Level: / >X-Spam-Flag: NO > >Hi Phil: > >I've been getting round-about versions of rumors concerning our newly >adjusted version 5.2 LT dataset. I believe I had indicated earlier to you >that the correction was within our published margin of error. In any case >here are the numbers that describe various aspects of v5.2 >1979-2004 > >Global Trend +0.115 UAH, +0.125 RATPAC and +0.137 HadAT (note, when >subsampled for the same latitudes in which sonde observations are >available, UAH and HadAT are almost exactly the same.) > >Update of site by site comparison of UAH LT 5.2 and SH radiosondes from >Christy and Norris 2004: > >All 87 SH stations, no adjustments Raobs + 0.028 UAH +0.040 >74 best sites with adjustments Raobs +0.030 UAH +0.054 > >These SH changes from the original publication were very minor because >most stations were outside the tropics where the diurnal error had >essentially no impact. > >A paper by Sherwood claims that Day minus Night is a legitimate way to go >about looking at sonde problems. The real problem though is that Day >minus Night is only an indicator of a sonde change, it does not determine >the change itself. Most notorious is the Philipps Mark III to Vaisala >RS-80 where the night warmed by about 0.3 C and the day by a little bit >less, which means the Day minus Night reveals a negative shift when in >fact both ob times have a significant positive shift (these sondes form a >signifciant part of the LKS dataset). Similar results occur for US VIZ >mini-art 2 to Micro-art software in 1990. > >I have many other sone comparisons, and all are more consistent with the >UAH trends more than RSS and certainly VG. Indeed, I was curious to see >that your name was on VG's latest paper. I wish I had time to fill you in >on why the addition of the non-linear terms is a red herring (both UAH and >RSS have performed the calculations with and without the non-linear terms >with no impact on the trends) and why the latitudinal difference for >calculating the coefficients leads one astray. I'm a little nervous now >that you may have a "dog in this fight" as we say in Alabama while writing >up the IPCC. I expect my sonde comparisons to be included in the IPCC and >I will have further results demonstrating the problems with the Day minus >Night technique within a few months. > >I've lots to do now. Thanks for listening. > >John C. > >-- >************************************************************ >John R. Christy >Director, Earth System Science Center voice: 256-961-7763 >Professor, Atmospheric Science fax: 256-961-7751 >Alabama State Climatologist >University of Alabama in Huntsville >[2]http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html > >Mail: ESSC-Cramer Hall/University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville >AL 35899 >Express: Cramer Hall/ESSC, 320 Sparkman Dr., Huntsville AL 35805 > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4729. 2005-07-06 17:17:41 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jul 6 17:17:41 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Where are we? to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, I'll look at this later. Have to do a few G8 interviews tomorrow am, but hopefully through by 2pm. Cheers Phil At 16:31 06/07/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I have been working full time on this past day. I will send to you the status at end of today. This will include a new Figure file based on the figures I have. This means none or almost none from DE. I have a number of suggestions on the Figs: for instance renumbering. Some are grouped in too cumbersome way at moment. e.g. the new Fig from David on lat-time series of SST should be a figure in its own right. I am adding place holders in a few places, like the CQs. I am also reducing all figures to single column and grouping. I have redone a couple. Some Figures are not mentioned in text: 3.8.1 and 3.8.2. Can you say where those should be? I need to go thru text along side the Figs to try to reconcile. At present there is not a good match. Hope to achieve this today. Then I'll send and we can try to sort out and make assignments. Many have not been done: all the ones from Panmao and DE. We also need to go thru 3.9 and add 2 new Figs from the TAR: we need to update those somehow at some point. More later Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, I've now got all the immediate work out of the way, so I can give some thought to the chapter. I'll begin looking through the latest draft tomorrow. We probably though need to determine where we are with the Figures. Have we yet got all we need from Dave E re Figures? Which sections need more work in the time remaining? Apart from next Monday pm away I'm here all next week. The only other times I'll be away are July19-21 when I have to first to Exeter and then to Newcastle. Here the rest of the time until Aug 12. We did say that we would send out one more version, and Albert is still willing to go through all the refs. On refs, the Diaz re was in a section I deleted as it was paleo, when the PDSI sections got merged. These two are just out: Moberg, A. and Jones, P.D., 2005: Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe 1901-1999. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1173-1188. Kostopoulou, E. and Jones, P.D., 2005: Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 89, 69-85. Should just need to add page numbers. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1973. 2005-07-08 09:43:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 8 09:43:03 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Alexander et al. (2005) pdf to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Have had a relook at the figures - I reviewed this for JGR. Warm nights is the most convincing/coherent temp extreme plot, so I'll ask Lisa for the panels that go into Figure 8. I'll also ask for the time series plots in Fig 13 and 14, as one or some of these might be a useful addition with a map in 3.8.1 or in CQ3.1. I'll see if I can get an annual time series for warm nights rather than the 4 seasons. Precip extremes are altogether less coherent. I'll see if I can get Lisa to produce a map to go with the time series from Fig 12b. Also likely might be an annual version of Fig 11 or a map to go with Fig 12a. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4630. 2005-07-08 10:31:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 8 10:31:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Other figures and other recent emails to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, The earlier emails have dealt with figures from 3.2, 3.3, 3.5 and 3.8. The only query with any of these relates to 3.5.1. Did Dennis do this, so the 20 rather than 10m contour can be easily dealt with when he's back? Or should an email go to Jim? Figures for 3.4 and 3.6 look good. A few responses though to yours Fig 3.6.2 OK. On 3.6.1, Jim's colouring makes it clearer than the alternative above. Figure 3.7.1 Needs units added to caption (mm/day?). How's about trying a plot just for 45N to 45S, or even 30S? Still have a hard time knowing what this figure means? Fig 3.7.5 Matilde said Marengo couldn't update this. This is I believe because it is based on Hulme, which we've not updated. We no longer get that journal. I'll email Matilde to see if she can get the regions defined. If it is from our data, then I've not much confidence in the NAR part. Forgot to mention to DE about 3.8.5. On the CQs, as PDSI is now in 3.3 (i.e. not in the extremes section), the PDSI figures should stay in CQ3.3. Hopefully we will get a better plot from Lisa to replace the Groisman plot. I'm attaching an updated version of Fig 3.8.6 (JJA temps for Central Europe). New one has 2004 on. I propose we just put the TAR 3.9 figures in as placeholders for the FOD. Finally Have you incorporated all the changes to references (some deletions) that Fatima has sent, and also David's couple of small emils. I can do this at the weekend if not? I will now have a tea and then start on reading the current draft. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 170. 2005-07-08 11:43:30 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 8 11:43:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Your hurricane article to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Seems that this potential Nature paper may be worth citing, if it does say that GW is having an effect on TC activity. Most odd therefore, the arguments here and those of the BAMS paper, with Pielke Jr and Landsea.. I got the attached from Tom Peterson yesterday. Shows that if you adjust adequately you get the same trends as good stations that haven't changed any routines. I presume some of these poorer sites are those that Pielke Sr. has pictures of. He'll no doubt respond at some time to say that people use the raw data - but clearly one needs to be in possession of all the facts, and not just throw up ones arms and say all is wrong. The US does have good metadata, he will likely say many other countries don't. That is why homogeneity assessments are done. They take a long time, they aren't sexy science and don't get reported in detail. If we wanted a figure for one of the Appendix on this subject (which we don't) this would be a good one to use. When I'm reading there later I'll see if a ref could go in. Problem is that citing one example, opens us to others showing more plots of raw temperatures. Best probably to talk in general terms. Cheers Phil At 18:55 07/07/2005, you wrote: Thanks Kerry A couple of quick responses below. Kerry Emanuel wrote: There is a great deal of confusion on this point in the past, but I thought that had been cleared up by a number of publications. The bottom line is that even in mature hurricanes, most of the water precipitated is advected in, not locally evaporated. But the advected part is irrelevant to the storm energetics (though highly relevant to rainfall). This can be seen from a number of perspectives, but to cut it short, advection cannot change available potential energy; only surface fluxes and radiation can do that. I don't disagree with this at all. But it does say that one has to encompass the entire domain of the storm and its circulation including surrounding areas of subsidence etc: which can even become global. I am familiar with Montgomery's work and it was that which I directly commented on wrt use of axi symmetric storms and how it interacts with the environment. Doesn't seem realistic enough to me. I agree that this does relate to local energy transformations (latent to sensible to kinetic etc) and part of this is simply the different perspectives. All of these things are scientific points that we ought to be able to do better on. I think we have done better than you are giving us credit for.... I think so too, but that is not what it says in the BAMS article. I note your findings that recent trends are towards longer storm lifetimes and toward greater intensity, and that the time series of "total power dissipation" is strongly linked to SSTs. I believe this is fully consistent with my article, and the piece you are missing is water vapor. What drives tropical cyclones..and what we are finding empirically to be the dominant environmental control variable...is the thermodynamic disequilibrium between the surface and the atmosphere. This is related to water vapor through its greenhouse effect. It is perfectly possible to have a dry hurricane, and we have simulated one, if there is enough temperature difference between the surface and boundary layer air and if the surface acts (like the ocean) as an infinite heat capacitor. Of course, the water vapor content per se is highly relevant to storm rainfall. What does that really mean? I don't find "thermodynamic disequilibrium" helpful in terms of talking about change. It relates to ocean atmosphere differences, but only the ocean SSTs and heat content are sort of given by the environment: the atmosphere is determined by the synoptic situation and the storm itself and where it moves. It seems more like a weather terminology and not a climate one. Maybe I am not viwing it correctly but maybe also my confusion can help you clarify what you mean? Finally, let me just say that I am puzzled and disappointed that you are an author on the Pielke et al BAMS article, with its biased rhetoric that does not confine itself to science. There is a story here, which I will tell you in full in August. In brief, I was asked to sign on as a co-author last fall, well before I did the work that is the subject of my Nature article. I refused to sign on because I objected to much of the rhetoric. The lead authors were conciliatory and offered to remove and alter the worst passages. I did agree with one main point...that global warming aside, there are disturbing demographic trends that one needs to worry about with respect to hurricanes. So we went through a series of compromises, and the draft you saw is far better than the one we started with. The price for these revisions is that I agreed to stay on as a co-author, a point I am still not comfortable with. In any event, I think the work in my Nature paper makes it clear (to me, at any rate) that global warming is having a large effect on global TC activity. I also have some new modeling results that support this point, which I will show you in August. Why do you not then withdraw as an author of the BAMS article? All the best, Kerry ______________________________________________ Kerry A. Emanuel Professor of Meteorology Rm. 54-1620, MIT Phone: (617) 253-2462 77 Mass. Ave. Fax: (617) 324-0308 Cambridge, MA 02139 Email: [1]emanuel@texmex.mit.edu Web: [2]http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/home.html ______________________________________________ -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [3]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [4]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3166. 2005-07-09 10:18:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 09 Jul 2005 10:18:18 -0400 from: "W.R Peltier" subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Emailing: dgeoid9ice5gvm2).eps to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Jonathan and all, Please note that you have once more screwed up the figures for section 6.3.3 of the FOD. The figure to which I am referring as Figure X in the text is the much smaller figure attached to this message than the one which you have mistakenly (in my strong opinion) relegated to "POSSIBLE SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL". This figure speaks directly to the issue of policy relevance which I thought was to be our primary concern. I have purposely removed the more detailed figure that you have relegated to the Supplementary Material so this most import part could appear in the chapter itself. We will clearly have to have a focussed discussion of this issue within the group as a whole. IN the meantime I'd appreciate it if you were to include the correct version of the figure in the document as only it corresponds to the words written in section 6.3.3. Cheers Dick dgeoid9ice5gvm2).eps Note: To protect against computer viruses, e-mail programs may prevent sending or receiving certain types of file attachments. Check your e-mail security settings to determine how attachments are handled. Prof W.R Peltier Dept of Physics, University of Toronto 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, CANADA, M5S 1A7 Tel (416)-978-2938 Fax (416)-978-8905 email peltier@atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\dgeoid9ice5gvm2)2.eps" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 5318. 2005-07-11 15:38:30 ______________________________________________________ cc: Dennis Shea date: Mon Jul 11 15:38:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Dennis to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, No you didn't ! I realized it was named after Dennis. Maybe the'll be enough this season to get to Kevin. Phil At 15:02 11/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Phil With the title you sent I didn't know if the message was about the hurricane or Dennis Shea. Of course you know that it was named after Dennis? I read more of Emanuel's stuff over weekend and I'll modify the hurricane section a bit. Kerry's Nature paper (did I send it to you) recognizes the theory does not account for the large increases in recent years. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, So earliest Hurricane in the season since records began in 1851. Having read the draft at the weekend, with higher SSTs, the next La Nina will be an interesting year. Maybe one or two years of record numbers/severity will be enough to convince more Americans. Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2230. 2005-07-11 16:20:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 11 Jul 2005 16:20:07 -0400 from: Gabi Hegerl subject: Re: common questions question (fwd) to: Jonathan Overpeck , "Jansen, Eystein " , Keith Briffa , Pascale Braconnot Hi Peck, Here comes a draft of 9.3, from Pascale with some changes by me to which Pascale didn't have a chance to respond yet - Pascale, I hope this is ok, I do this now because there is so little time left to iterate! I also just found some text from ch 2 that we are supposed to take, and added it but it needs checking up and references and us checking if we buy the results cited. Peck, if we still take the LGM sensitivity (6.5.8 ZOD) could you please send it + CAs- David R, Bette??)? thanks! Gabi Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > Hi Gabi - Funny, I was just thinking about emailing you... > > The persons to check w/ on common questions is Stefan Rahmstorf and > Keith Briffa. I'll cc them to know what's up. We're getting close to a > new FOD, and if you're willing it might be good for you to check it > out. We'll be sending it by Tom too, no doubt. But, the big issue is > that our two chapters have to be compatible. Does this make sense to you? > > In addition to Stefan and Keith, it might be helpful for Eystein, > myself and David Rind to check out your chapter when it's ready. When > we divided things up in China, I believe we left the door open for > David - the person who did the Chap 6 sensitivity and solar forcing > work that is now covered more in your chapter (and not in ours) - to > be a CA for your chapter and to help make sure you have the > sensitivity assessment as strong as it can be. David has been having > some tough family issues that have taken him away from the IPCC since > China, but he just let me know he's back and ready to help 100%. We're > going to talk next week, and I'd like to encourage him to interact > with you on the sensitivity issues. Is this still ok? Again, I think > this is important particularly to ensure we don't have to deal with > criticism and controversy later. The spotlight will be on our two > chapters! Thanks. > > I hope the ms does well at Nature - the people who would benefit most > from seeing it would be me, Eystein and Keith - especially Keith. As > before, we're happy to keep it to ourselves. Thanks. > > Ah, Monday - we made a quick raid on Mao's tomb. It was pretty cool to > see after all my trips to China and having never seen it. It was funny > that Valerie and Dick had the same exact goal, so we just did it. Was > back at the hotel for a very jet-lagged Eystein to show up a day late > due to a canceled train in Norway. No rest for the wicked after that - > those IPCC mtgs certainly are a workout. Interesting, however. > > Again, thanks and best of luck on that ms - it is worthy! > > cheers, peck > >> > (or whatever they are called now - faqs?) >> >>> >>> Hi Peck, >>> >>> I hope you are well and can still stick your head out of the IPCC >>> pile! >>> We are just fiddling with our common questions, and recognize that >>> our common question about attribution of 20th century warming draws >>> some from chapter 6 stuff (level of variability in paleo and >>> unusualness of 20th century, mentioning uncertainty >>> in reconstructions - all this for strengthening our argument about >>> naturally forced and internal variability). So I >>> was wondering who would be a good person to >>> swing this by in your chapter for a check. You, or somebody else who >>> does the faqs? >>> Hope your summer is going well. When we are not working, Tom and I >>> seem to spend the time in 3 feet of water (lately also in 10 feet >>> since >>> our 5 year old is somehow enthoused about jumping from the diving >>> board, >>> preferrably the 3m one... scary! :) >>> >>> greetings (oh, and I did wind up seing the great wall with the >>> Brits on >>> friday in Mutuanyu, was great - where did you go that monday?) >>> >>> Gabi >> >> p.s. should have also said: Tom and my reconstruction paper is now >> under review for nature. One step further than we got with science.. >> So I hope we can have it ready for IPCC, but who knows... >> I did rework it quite a bit, so shall send you new version tomorrow, >> or should I send it to Keith? >> >> Gabi >> >> >>> >>> -------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School >>> of the >>> Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax >>> 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu >>> http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html >>> --------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> -------------------------------------------------------------------- >> Gabriele Hegerl >> Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment >> Duke University, Durham NC 27708 >> phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 >> email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html >> --------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\forpeck_preindustrial.doc" 194. 2005-07-12 16:39:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jul 12 16:39:46 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: New drafts] to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Done this. I'll work on this version some more tomorrow. I'll resend it tomorrow late, so you can pick up after the golf. Here's some thoughts on the captions for the maps. I think we need this sort of detail to keep skeptics happy. I need to read Jay's email carefully to check I've missed nothing. Off home now to see a roofer - we have a small leak ! Tell me if a revised set of figures are on the ftp site, for my tomorrow.. Didn't get to send any more pdf reminders - will do tomorrow. Cheers Phil At 15:54 12/07/2005, you wrote: Rats David sent me some separate corrections: I thought you had them: this one needs to be updated with initials Chagnon, F.J.F. and R. L. Bras, 2005: Kevin -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: New drafts Date: Tue, 12 Jul 2005 09:43:51 +0100 From: Parker, David (Met Office) [1] To: Kevin Trenberth [2] References: [3]<42CF0169.4010203@ucar.edu> [4]<1121094349.5955.35.camel@eld448.desktop.frd.metoffice.com> [5]<42D2CF60.7030604@ucar.edu> Kevin Thanks. I noticed that the first author is "Chagnon" not "Changnon" and amended your entry in the references. The two Changnons cited in the references are correct...its odd that all these are in the surface moisture field! I presume that only you can amend the file on your directory so I am attaching a copy with my edits. David On Mon, 2005-07-11 at 20:58, Kevin Trenberth wrote: > David > That paper probably ought to be included: I added the following to > 3.3.2.4 under urban areas: > > > > Nor is it confined to urban areas. Other changes in land use can also > affect precipitation, and a notable example is in the Amazon arising > from deforestation, where Chagnon and Bras (2005) find large changes > in local rainfall, with increases in deforested areas, associated with > local atmospheric circulations that are changed by gradients of > vegetation. Changes are also found in seasonality. > > Kevin > > > Parker, David (Met Office) wrote: > > Kevin > > > > Thanks for this useful material. I managed to read the file of diagrams > > on the 2nd attempt. > > > > > > Fig 3.2.1: We cannot add the shaded band because we haven't done optimum > > averaging on land-only. This is because we haven't yet developed the > > requisite covariance matrices yet. It is more complex to do this for > > land-only than for the ocean or for the entire globe, partly because we > > are dealing with a discontinuous domain. I'm sure it will be done in due > > course, but we're not there yet. > > > > Fig 3.6.1. I prefer the alternative as the NAO is covered by Fig 3.6.5. > > > > Fig 3.6.7. The low pass filter can't have come from Fig 3.6.1 where no > > low-pass filter is evident. > > > > Fig 3.7.2 caption "...rate in each of the monsoon regions..." > > > > Amazonia: I saw the attached paper in GRL this morning. > > > > Regards > > > > David > > > > > > > > On Fri, 2005-07-08 at 23:42, Kevin Trenberth wrote: > > > > > Hi all > > > > > > Phil and I have been working diligently on getting the basic chapter together. I think we have made a lot of progress. However, we urgently await the revised figures from David Easterling, and supposedly these are coming very soon, so you may want to hold off on this for a couple of days, and wait for a new version. The new aspect is that the figure file is now coordinated fully with the t ext. Figures have been reassembled and renumbered and many have been redone. At least that is the way it is supposed to be, but I may have done it wrong, so please check. Gaps also exist in 3.8 (as well as 3.3). I put stuff in for the CQs. > > > > > > I am trying out making these available through ftp, rather than sending large emails. In part icular the figure file is over 20 MB. I have placed the 2 files on my ftp site at NCAR. I would be interested to know if you can access these OK? Do not send to others. > > > > > > People from outside can access the data by: > > > ftp [6]ftp.cgd.ucar.edu > > > cd /pub/trenbert/ > > > > > > The following is a listing of the two files there: > > > 1 cgdcas 20509184 Jul 8 16:26 Ch03_FOD_Figs8July.doc* > > > 1 cgdcas 903680 Jul 8 16:27 Ch03_FOD_text_2005_0708.doc* > > > > > > You can see the names and the size. > > > I think seeing a lot of new figures is actually exciting, but you will note some choices to be made. Roxana and Jim: I had to reshape 3.6 a bit but options still exist: see the layout as it sta nds and queries on Fig. 3.6.1. The figs are reduced to about final size. > > > > > > I still have not read a lot of the text, and new papers keep coming in. For instance a new pa per by Emanuel will soon appear in Nature on Hurricanes, and accommodations will be needed. > > > > > > Best regards > > > Kevin > > > > > -- > **************** > Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [7]trenbert@ucar.edu > Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [8]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ > P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 > Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) > > Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 -- David E Parker A2_W052 Met Office FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK email: [9]david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 Global climate data sets are available from [10]http://hadobs.org -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [11]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [12]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1142. 2005-07-13 09:52:28 ______________________________________________________ cc: david.easterling@noaa.gov, jay.lawrimore@noaa.gov, "Russell Vose" date: Wed Jul 13 09:52:28 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Some more thoughts on DTR map for 1979-2004 to: "Byron Gleason" , Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Byron, Agree that we will have to wait till Russ gets back to check this out. Added Russ in on this reply. Russ sent Fig 3.2.2 for the ZOD, which we still have in the FOD figure at the moment. We will need this updating. Presumably the new one will be similar to one from the ZOD. That figure had a trend of -0.08 C/decade for 1950-2003. From a guesstimate of the trend over 1979-2003 in this figure, the trend is about -0.2 C in total. This sort of trend is in the first light blue category, just less than -0.1 C/decade. I reckon that the average of the trends in the 79-04 map would average to about this number. So, it seems OK. I am though a little alarmed at how variable the trends are between adjacent boxes. From knowledge of the likely variations in spatial density, most of these seem to occur where station numbers are likely low. Where density is high (US, Canada, northern/central Europe, northern Russia and China/Japan and eastern Australia) changes between adjacent boxes are a lot smoother. I also know that DTR amplifies any problem in station homogeneity (as opposed to the mean which reduces it). Problems are usually of the opposite sign for max and min. So, can you see if a similar plot for 1950-2004 would be better behaved. This period would be 55 years as opposed to 26. It could be that we might need to go to more than 18 years to get reliable trends for 1979-2004 - if you're using the same threshold as the mean temp maps. I have plans with Russ to look at these data for 1958-2001 and 1979-2001 with the ERA-40 Reanalyses (along with Adrian Simmons). ERA-40 should be good enough for the shorter period to assess reliability, but this will beyond the AR4. Cheers Phil At 21:39 12/07/2005, Byron Gleason wrote: Kevin, Russ Vose did the analysis and currently he is on vacation in Pennsylvania, and will return Monday. - Byron Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Byron Thanks for the figure. I have to express surprise over the figure. It shows a lot more red than I expected based on other material. Over the US Dai has produced DTR trends for a slightly different period: 1976-2004 and it is much bluer all round. I am also a bit alarmed at some spots where trends are opposite: 2 large positive spots near others of opposite sign. Is this consistent with Alexander et al 2005? Is this consistent with Fig 3.2.2. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: Folks, Fig. 3.2.11 (global map 79-04 of dtr trends) now available on [1]ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ipcc/ipcc05 This map was a little tricky style wise because it is temperature related so I wanted to use the same color scheme as the other temperature maps, however there isn't global coverage like the other temperature maps, thus the oceans end up being mostly grey. Nevertheless, I think it looks better than if I used the precip. color scheme (it would be a little atypical to depict temperature using green and tan). - Byron Phil Jones wrote: Dear All, I've picked up a file from Kevin where he has put all the new figures. Also downloaded them all myself, and have ben looking at them over a coffee for the last 10-15 minutes. Comments, thoughts under each variable. Temperature Maps The layout and grey/white are fine on these. The aim with the 1979-2004 ones is to have all 5 for this period with the same scale, which they do. As we are likely to get comments on these in this review round, I reckon the ones we currently have are fine. The annual plot for 79-04 will look a bit washed out cf 1901-2004, but it wouldn't if it was the DJF plot for the same period. So, I'm happy to go with these. Precipitation Maps These now have the better coverage (compared to the ZOD), so you've solved that issue. The problem with these plots is the two greys. There is a lot more little trend areas on these maps as opposed to the temperature ones. To be consistent with the temperature ones, I think we will have to go with the light grey for missing and white for little trend. There should only be a largish areas of white on the 79-04 annual map. There should be a lot less on the seasonal ones. Apologies for getting this wrong the other day. Can you make these changes to these 6? Finally The only other plots needed are the one for DTR (map will be 3.2.11, annual for 79-04, or whatever final year Russ is happy with) and a max/min/dtr annual series for the globe. Also there is the time series plots for precip, which Dave said all that was missing was the longer CRU series back to 1901. Thanks again for all your help with these figures. Thanks Jay for the details of how these have been produced. I'll use this to send Kevin some captions, if I get a chance today. Cheers Phil At 00:23 12/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Thanks Byron I think I got them all. But have not looked at them: Phil I'll try to redo the Fig file tonite. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: Folks, Figs (with new naming scheme) can now be found in: [2]ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ipcc/ipcc05 Note: everything has been centered on 0.0 degrees and the tmean maps have been redone to account for a mistake where I was still saying "Grey Intervals" and it should have said "White Intervals". I will probably get a new ftp directory in the future, but for now this should suffice, and more maps to come tomorrow. - Byron Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all I have put the new figures into my file. I do note that 180 is in the center. For a lot of fields this is desirable because of the large effects of El Nino. But for land stuff it seems desirable to have the break elsewhere, perhaps with 0 meridian centered. I think this will be the case for precip, and so it probably should be for T too? It will mean we have a mixture in the chapter but that may be better that strict adherence to something that makes no sense in some cases. I am opening this up for your views. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 500. 2005-07-13 11:40:45 ______________________________________________________ cc: Kevin Trenberth , Byron Gleason , david.easterling@noaa.gov date: Wed Jul 13 11:40:45 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: tmean pics to: "Jay Lawrimore" Jay, Well spotted ! There is something on our web site about this - somewhat hidden under our high-resolution datasets. So well hidden that I can't find it ! The original reason for developing these high-resolution datasets was to have them globally complete for 1901-2000 for the world's land areas (except Antarctica). This was for driving vegetation models. They still are used for this, but they have been used for much more. To make them complete, we interpolate the anomaly fields (there is a little more in this latest paper attached). How good this works is obviously variable dependent. It is the largest problem with precipitation as this has the shortest correlation length scales. So, this problem is the same as you have (Smith and Reynolds, most recently) when grids are infilled, which in anomaly form relax to zero (the average value of the1961-90 period is zero). This is why the SR averages for infilled datasets are 0.1-0.2C warmer in the pre-1920 period than non-infilled ones. The same thing happens with RSOI techniques. Kevin and Jim Hurrell have a paper on this wrt SST. Without infilling the number of boxes decreases in earlier years, so you are essentially assuming the average of the missing boxes is equal to those that exist. With infilling you give them zero or near zero, which wrt 1961-90 makes them warmer for early decades in the 20th century. I say all this for temperature, as it is easy to follow. For precip the problem is greater in areal extent. There is a field we have somewhere, which is the distance to the nearest real station (for each variable/date), which we have used to omit these points. However, for precip it makes very little difference. What I would do is just average what is there and see how much it differs from GHCN which will omit missing areas. As we're only showing CRU as a smoothed series, the fact that the individual years pre-1920 for CRU will be less variable than later will not be apparent. There are loads of other problems, with both our dataset and GHCN (as gridded precip) which you alluded to in your email about the precip/temp maps. Some of these effects can be seen in the time series you've sent. There are more stations in this region of equatorial Pacific from the late 1950s to 1990. As our fields are complete (for land areas), you should be able to simply average them (with areal weighting) to derive a global land series. If you do take anomalies, take out the 1961-90 one. A simple way to omit the areas infilled is to calculate the SD of the 12 months' anomalies for each year. If the number is zero or very small then omit that year. Hope this explains the issue. Cheers Phil At 17:29 12/07/2005, Jay Lawrimore wrote: Hi Phil, I'm working on the CRU time series with gridded data from 1901 to 2002. In running it through our station analysis system I've taken the half degree grids and assigned a lat/lon to each to create pseudo-stations. After running some analyses and looking back at the original data files that Byron downloaded from your ftp site - it appears there are lengthy periods when, instead of assigning missing values, the grids have been assigned climatological normals. For instance in the area 10N to 0N and 180W to 80W, there are 44 grid boxes with data and many of these appear to have normals from the early 1920s back to 1901. This results in odd looking time series as you see in the attached. Here are the data for 1 of the grids - taken from the file cru_ts_2_10.1901-2002.pre. What are your thoughts on how this should be handled? Jay Grid-ref= 190, 200 0 104 42 600 2819 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2759 3082 2930 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2739 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2657 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 103 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 3079 3082 3080 3263 4452 4047 1790 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3054 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 3136 3082 3062 3263 4452 3999 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 3809 1852 111 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2953 3082 3062 3387 4612 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3299 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3122 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 45 600 2542 3082 3062 3263 4452 4047 1852 114 0 104 40 600 2537 3082 3062 3263 4452 4116 1852 114 0 104 42 600 2737 3082 3062 3394 4452 3719 1852 114 0 50 17 146 1771 2765 2728 2349 3330 4084 2503 74 0 84 32 612 3144 2811 3117 3325 6174 4140 1296 32 0 121 79 563 2791 2546 4109 3051 1798 1785 659 104 0 155 30 316 2605 1902 2872 2405 2684 2076 604 38 0 101 59 961 2603 2777 2397 3142 2880 2331 941 85 0 121 76 859 3060 3258 2471 1596 3601 2048 794 124 0 108 60 745 2329 2133 4461 4193 2391 2659 368 51 0 87 50 589 3117 3584 7556 7832 5787 1562 1029 66 0 184 52 841 3645 3757 2936 6490 4407 4553 2750 58 0 143 44 377 3175 2638 3104 3831 4429 5897 1783 233 0 127 73 762 3886 6198 2642 3126 3633 4990 1946 42 0 4 2 30 4622 3097 4467 2013 9673 8641 2966 377 0 5 10 164 4059 3332 1861 7992 8788 3517 2776 4 0 4 0 24 1593 2872 585 199 2462 3594 4272 260 6 7 145 17 1891 2765 707 1028 5747 6152 1100 5 3 6 2 947 2211 2117 5416 1266 3775 2291 3557 238 0 208 420 161 3035 2228 2847 3665 4772 5233 1726 543 5 7 303 2247 3303 3769 2204 5006 7163 5059 6092 396 5 27 157 1160 3842 4623 7081 7156 5524 3477 6016 29 0 4 2 441 5186 2040 2719 4392 4127 2793 1640 133 0 4 3 38 2425 1637 3013 3939 3503 4246 3164 573 0 5 47 470 1122 3720 3270 2013 3517 3554 3742 564 10 293 66 40 1773 2370 3328 1707 2813 3813 4031 8 0 7 0 40 1190 3615 3208 4010 5164 2845 94 123 0 7 30 109 2384 3067 2526 4053 3374 6929 1942 422 0 10 12 528 3380 2302 4482 2059 5088 3715 1207 6 0 8 0 1060 1891 3686 7443 3488 3975 2258 1526 140 0 4 2 3010298 1880 2820 1586 4193 2570 2507 311 0 16 2 1231 7299 4851 4084 2150 7034 8062 617 16 7 7 0 81 1929 3970 6399 6732 8592 8916 1707 165 4 75 3 209 2709 3686 1846 3120 5369 4282 2459 3 0 17 495 64 3467 2308 3300 1547 3294 3222 194 21 0 5 82 198 3125 4783 2461 2170 2889 2991 1422 156 0 6 3 40 1010 2019 998 1341 4452 4800 511 4 2 7 146 1977 2414 4087 3671 5554 4817 5176 2348 3 0 28 131 85 1606 4219 5624 3247 3624 3566 950 97 0 14 17 1527 2575 2971 2186 3648 1999 5075 585 231 3 2 36 2180 2080 2962 3080 2173 3592 4468 3262 7 0 13 25 965 2225 4984 3971 3048 3388 5589 941 112 0 3 0 30 2638 1840 738 1609 5208 4747 3079 135 0 3 74 448 5044 4349 2569 2718 3508 4557 517 117 3 307 70 1923 1267 2950 3545 2578 5685 2271 567 433 2 3 161 116 5134 4512 3925 2239 4167 4942 2407 241 4 4 3 532 3361 2589 1246 3929 684710094 1994 316 0 78 148 1302 2638 3698 6025 4223 4964 6751 1922 8 0 13 69 1201 3320 2959 2810 3903 5885 6209 1918 20 0 3 99 137 3388 3446 1350 2043 3152 1627 2050 197 0 2 2 809 3437 4679 4350 5756 5315 4209 2146 17 0 5 0 1143 3736 3609 1271 2180 7906 2611 228 19 0 10 3 53 1330 1800 3368 2780 6410 3873 4012 7 0 140 3 377 2022 4444 2936 679 4260 3594 1028 3 0 3 2 490 2050 3165 2272 1883 3009 2602 1370 3 0 149 40 239 5161 1168 4761 3965 4897 3153 578 300 0 7 9 1511 3484 4318 3196 4053 7799 5533 1646 275 5 56 0 428 3908 2644 2440 2075 5823 5035 3233 35 0 7 33 361 4584 5030 3270 5068 3432 6625 1292 637 2 120 16 56 7485 3014 2514 1344 4073 4003 1579 38 0 94 98 250 1617 2672 2247 3234 4852 5792 3753 350 0 442 0 398 2129 3134 2449 2855 5516 2161 705 115 0 81 0 589 1623 2244 2532 3671 2649 4181 1113 4 0 3 3 40 4891 4617 2780 2281 1714 2740 133 144 0 7 35 78 1790 2019 3812 3071 3170 2404 468 18 0 125 41 166 2417 2244 3046 6605 3650 7876 339 21 2 70 26 32 2211 2798 2563 2118 3793 3728 2357 215 2 7 53 834 3248 2422 3126 3426 3214 1085 3627 84 0 72 2 240 1598 2315 3150 3430 2920 2667 1274 123 0 84 15 355 1363 1963 4583 4082 5222 4517 1576 207 0 30 23 643 2616 4447 3928 3906 4714 3477 1215 64 0 26 33 464 2548 1560 2100 3341 3446 4161 1994 52 0 13 173 1973 2811 2490 4060 5061 4185 5484 1542 135 4 18 26 325 4943 2872 5462 3244 3726 3161 3129 21 6 31 23 1261 1557 2712 848 2219 5422 2878 3990 29 0 36 20 259 1426 3248 4078 3123 5360 5682 2248 237 0 424 8 767 3005 3076 1375 3580 4438 2076 1276 147 0 32 15 210 4195 2672 2097 1840 3673 2194 1840 108 2 15 42 179 3300 1797 1748 1508 2524 3230 1711 123 4 31 11 252 2356 2124 2189 1958 3944 3809 1783 62 Phil Jones wrote: Dear All, I've picked up a file from Kevin where he has put all the new figures. Also downloaded them all myself, and have ben looking at them over a coffee for the last 10-15 minutes. Comments, thoughts under each variable. Temperature Maps The layout and grey/white are fine on these. The aim with the 1979-2004 ones is to have all 5 for this period with the same scale, which they do. As we are likely to get comments on these in this review round, I reckon the ones we currently have are fine. The annual plot for 79-04 will look a bit washed out cf 1901-2004, but it wouldn't if it was the DJF plot for the same period. So, I'm happy to go with these. Precipitation Maps These now have the better coverage (compared to the ZOD), so you've solved that issue. The problem with these plots is the two greys. There is a lot more little trend areas on these maps as opposed to the temperature ones. To be consistent with the temperature ones, I think we will have to go with the light grey for missing and white for little trend. There should only be a largish areas of white on the 79-04 annual map. There should be a lot less on the seasonal ones. Apologies for getting this wrong the other day. Can you make these changes to these 6? Finally The only other plots needed are the one for DTR (map will be 3.2.11, annual for 79-04, or whatever final year Russ is happy with) and a max/min/dtr annual series for the globe. Also there is the time series plots for precip, which Dave said all that was missing was the longer CRU series back to 1901. Thanks again for all your help with these figures. Thanks Jay for the details of how these have been produced. I'll use this to send Kevin some captions, if I get a chance today. Cheers Phil At 00:23 12/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Thanks Byron I think I got them all. But have not looked at them: Phil I'll try to redo the Fig file tonite. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: Folks, Figs (with new naming scheme) can now be found in: [1]ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ipcc/ipcc05 Note: everything has been centered on 0.0 degrees and the tmean maps have been redone to account for a mistake where I was still saying "Grey Intervals" and it should have said "White Intervals". I will probably get a new ftp directory in the future, but for now this should suffice, and more maps to come tomorrow. - Byron Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all I have put the new figures into my file. I do note that 180 is in the center. For a lot of fields this is desirable because of the large effects of El Nino. But for land stuff it seems desirable to have the break elsewhere, perhaps with 0 meridian centered. I think this will be the case for precip, and so it probably should be for T too? It will mean we have a mixture in the chapter but that may be better that strict adherence to something that makes no sense in some cases. I am opening this up for your views. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Jay Lawrimore Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch NOAAs National Climatic Data Center Scientific Services Division Veach-Baley Federal Building 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801-5001 Ph. (828) 271-4750, Fax (828) 271-4328 [5]Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov Visit the NCDC Monitoring Site: [6]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/monitoring.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4167. 2005-07-13 14:39:07 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Matilde Rusticucci" date: Wed Jul 13 14:39:07 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Figure 3.7.5 to: mati@at.fcen.uba.ar, "Kevin Trenberth" Matilde, Thanks. I have printed the paper off and will read along with one by Botta et al. in GRL from 2002. Just some text seems fine. Cheers Phil At 13:58 13/07/2005, Matilde Rusticucci wrote: Kevin, Phil > Ok all let me try to clear this up a bit. > 1) The Figure from Marengo is amongst those in the Figure file on the > ftp site. At present it is not included in the text, although the > result is discussed. Is this adequate or should we include this figure? I think that this is adequate. No figure but results discussed in the text. > 2) The figure is spectacular but concern has been expressed about whther > it is real: it it fully believable? Is it reproducible with other > data? If there are any questions about this then there is more reason > to not include it. In the same paper, Marengo compares the calculated indices with NCEP, CMAP GHCN and CRU data. Because the figure caption has some errors, it´s a little difficult to follow, but he says in the text that his data-based indices and CRU are positively and significantly correlated. No relation seems to be with NCEP, (19291999). In particular: "In northern Amazonia, the NAR index shows a negative trend while NCEP rainfall and the CMAP datasets show a positive trend. (194899) In southern Amazonia,rainfall from gauge observation and from the gridded datasets CRU, CMAP and the NCEP rainfall show a positive trend also significant at 5% level. " IN MY UNDERSTANDING THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT STATION DATA ARE INCORRECT but the others could be... > 3) There was also the desire that if we did include it, could it be > updated? The answer seems to be no. > The answer is NO > If that is the case then we are back to should we include it or not? > Matilde I thought you had views about the credibility of the figure? > Kevin > I hope I have explained it clearly for you, is it done now? (if not, we can try in Spanish ...) cheers, Matilde Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1113. 2005-07-13 18:34:00 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen , cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Keith Briffa , francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca date: Wed, 13 Jul 2005 18:34:00 -0600 (MDT) from: Bette Otto-Bliesner subject: Re: Senstivity, LGM and otherwise to: hegerl@duke.edu Hi Gabi, Here is the section from the FOD draft that includes the new PMIP-2 results. The radiative forcings have been modified based on new calculations. Note the PMIP-2 LGM model results included in the FOD do not include vegetation or atmospheric aerosol changes so for these results the radiative forcing estimate is 5.7 +/- 1.3 W/m2. Bette ______________________________________________ Bette L. Otto-Bliesner Climate Change Research National Center for Atmospheric Research 1850 Table Mesa Drive / P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, Colorado 80307 Phone: 303-497-1723 Fax: 303-497-1348 Email: ottobli@ncar.ucar.edu ______________________________________________ On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 hegerl@duke.edu wrote: > > > Hi chapter 6, > > I am getting a bit nervous about the sensitivity stuff, since > chapter 10 wants our version from us (blush nowhere near there) > for their summary of all things sensitivity - so I am in the middle > of the pipeline.... > ALl I'd need is the text from the ZOD, if you want to update anything > or make me aware of refs, thats fine, but not as urgent. > Did the ZOD have the ice age sensitivity? > > thank you and sorry... > > Gabi > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > Gabriele Hegerl > Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment > Duke University, Durham NC 27708 > phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 > email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html > --------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\What do ice ages tell us_071105.doc" 3201. 2005-07-14 11:11:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jul 14 11:11:11 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Some help needed with Figures for the FOD submission to: , "'Klein Tank, Albert'" , "'Kevin Trenberth'" Lisa, Happy to wait till then. If you can also send a revised caption, that would be great. A DTR plot for 1979-2003 would be useful to compare with Russ's. Kevin has asked Aiguo Dai to produce one from Synops, so we will have 3 to look at. Depending on how they all look, it might be worth trying to write something up - as the discrepancies might provide some useful assessment. Just a thought. Cheers Phil At 09:45 14/07/2005, Lisa Alexander wrote: Hi All, OK, so I hope I have got all your comments! I think Phils description of the percentile results was very clear. It therefore seems reasonable to me to have the y-axis on the timeseries as number of days and have the same axis for each plot. It will probably be tomorrow before I can redo the diagram with all the changes required so I hope you can wait until then. As for DTR, I have only got the trends from 1951-2003 (see attached apologies for the hideous colour scheme). The coverage is not as good as Russs due to the smaller correlation decay length for DTR compared to the percentile indices. At first glance there are some discrepancies e.g. South America but obviously well have to wait until I look at the latter period trends. Again if you give me until tomorrow I can redo the plot for the 1979-2003 period. Regards. Lisa. -----Original Message----- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5260. 2005-07-14 16:48:04 ______________________________________________________ cc: Byron Gleason , david.easterling@noaa.gov, jay.lawrimore@noaa.gov, Russell Vose , Aiguo Dai , Lisa Alexander , David Parker date: Thu Jul 14 16:48:04 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Some more thoughts on DTR map for 1979-2004 to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, I've asked Lisa to produce a plot for 1979-2003 so we might get that tomorrow. I was going to suggest we look at the CRU data but Aiguo has used that to some extent. As Spain was so different in the two maps, I've sent an email there for the definitive answer. I'm involved in a paper on this work, so asked for the trends over the 2 periods. I'll study them all - including Jay's tonight. Aiguo's grid looks as though it could degraded to Russ's. Not sure if Lisa's could be made available in a grid form - maybe at the HC model grid. If we got these we could then look at spatial correlations. Need to check what the threshold for years acceptable is first. Russ's should be the 18 that Byron used for the 1979-2004 mean temp maps. The other way to check Russ's is to average max and min and then compare with the mean trend map for the year for 1979-2004 - and similarly for the others. We have some more confidence in that field. Cheers Phil At 15:57 14/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all I am attaching some figures from Aiguo Dai. These include the trends in DTR, clouds and precip for 1050-2004 and 1979-2004. He has also produced a number of other figures, such as correlations among these fields: DTR mostlt negatively correlated with cloud (exception Africa), cloud strong positive correlation with cloud everywhere. For convenience I am attaching the other ones as well. Notes from Dai: The precip is from Chen et al. (2002 and updates). The merged DTR and cloud cover were derived from CRU_TS_2.02 and my synoptic obs. based on which data set had better sampling (i.e., larger number of reports or stations for the CRU case) for each individual monthly/season at each grid box and a common/overlapping period was used to adjust the two data sets to have the same mean. This is a preliminary analysis that will be explored more as part of my NOAA proposal. ASOS cloud data since 1994 for N.A. were not used and U.S. military cloud data were included. ==== Firstly for 1950-2004 there seems to be a very good agreement with Lisa's map thru 2003 except Aiguo has Australia, Africa, S America and other areas also filled in. However for 1979-2004 there are major differences with the Vose one from NCDC. South America still has negative trends in the Dai work vs positive for Vose. The US, Australia and Europe have distinctly more negative trends in Dai: the sign changes in many points. In Spain it goes the other way? There seems to be some agreement at some islands where presumably the data are limited and more likely similar: Hawaii, Bermuda, near Madagascar,?? The lack of reproducibility here is very disturbing. Lisa can weigh in on which, if any is closest to hers. Comments? Suggestions? Kevin Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all I am sufficiently concerned about this that I have asked Aiguo Dai to use his data to compute DTR trends for 1979 to 2004. Aiguo has all the synops and so values are based on a much more comprehensive dataset with wider coverage, including oceans, but perhaps with problems and inhomogeneities such as ASOS. Still it will be a useful sanity check. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Byron, Agree that we will have to wait till Russ gets back to check this out. Added Russ in on this reply. Russ sent Fig 3.2.2 for the ZOD, which we still have in the FOD figure at the moment. We will need this updating. Presumably the new one will be similar to one from the ZOD. That figure had a trend of -0.08 C/decade for 1950-2003. From a guesstimate of the trend over 1979-2003 in this figure, the trend is about -0.2 C in total. This sort of trend is in the first light blue category, just less than -0.1 C/decade. I reckon that the average of the trends in the 79-04 map would average to about this number. So, it seems OK. I am though a little alarmed at how variable the trends are between adjacent boxes. From knowledge of the likely variations in spatial density, most of these seem to occur where station numbers are likely low. Where density is high (US, Canada, northern/central Europe, northern Russia and China/Japan and eastern Australia) changes between adjacent boxes are a lot smoother. I also know that DTR amplifies any problem in station homogeneity (as opposed to the mean which reduces it). Problems are usually of the opposite sign for max and min. So, can you see if a similar plot for 1950-2004 would be better behaved. This period would be 55 years as opposed to 26. It could be that we might need to go to more than 18 years to get reliable trends for 1979-2004 - if you're using the same threshold as the mean temp maps. I have plans with Russ to look at these data for 1958-2001 and 1979-2001 with the ERA-40 Reanalyses (along with Adrian Simmons). ERA-40 should be good enough for the shorter period to assess reliability, but this will beyond the AR4. Cheers Phil At 21:39 12/07/2005, Byron Gleason wrote: Kevin, Russ Vose did the analysis and currently he is on vacation in Pennsylvania, and will return Monday. - Byron Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Byron Thanks for the figure. I have to express surprise over the figure. It shows a lot more red than I expected based on other material. Over the US Dai has produced DTR trends for a slightly different period: 1976-2004 and it is much bluer all round. I am also a bit alarmed at some spots where trends are opposite: 2 large positive spots near others of opposite sign. Is this consistent with Alexander et al 2005? Is this consistent with Fig 3.2.2. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: Folks, Fig. 3.2.11 (global map 79-04 of dtr trends) now available on [1]ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ipcc/ipcc05 This map was a little tricky style wise because it is temperature related so I wanted to use the same color scheme as the other temperature maps, however there isn't global coverage like the other temperature maps, thus the oceans end up being mostly grey. Nevertheless, I think it looks better than if I used the precip. color scheme (it would be a little atypical to depict temperature using green and tan). - Byron Phil Jones wrote: Dear All, I've picked up a file from Kevin where he has put all the new figures. Also downloaded them all myself, and have ben looking at them over a coffee for the last 10-15 minutes. Comments, thoughts under each variable. Temperature Maps The layout and grey/white are fine on these. The aim with the 1979-2004 ones is to have all 5 for this period with the same scale, which they do. As we are likely to get comments on these in this review round, I reckon the ones we currently have are fine. The annual plot for 79-04 will look a bit washed out cf 1901-2004, but it wouldn't if it was the DJF plot for the same period. So, I'm happy to go with these. Precipitation Maps These now have the better coverage (compared to the ZOD), so you've solved that issue. The problem with these plots is the two greys. There is a lot more little trend areas on these maps as opposed to the temperature ones. To be consistent with the temperature ones, I think we will have to go with the light grey for missing and white for little trend. There should only be a largish areas of white on the 79-04 annual map. There should be a lot less on the seasonal ones. Apologies for getting this wrong the other day. Can you make these changes to these 6? Finally The only other plots needed are the one for DTR (map will be 3.2.11, annual for 79-04, or whatever final year Russ is happy with) and a max/min/dtr annual series for the globe. Also there is the time series plots for precip, which Dave said all that was missing was the longer CRU series back to 1901. Thanks again for all your help with these figures. Thanks Jay for the details of how these have been produced. I'll use this to send Kevin some captions, if I get a chance today. Cheers Phil At 00:23 12/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Thanks Byron I think I got them all. But have not looked at them: Phil I'll try to redo the Fig file tonite. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: Folks, Figs (with new naming scheme) can now be found in: [2]ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ipcc/ipcc05 Note: everything has been centered on 0.0 degrees and the tmean maps have been redone to account for a mistake where I was still saying "Grey Intervals" and it should have said "White Intervals". I will probably get a new ftp directory in the future, but for now this should suffice, and more maps to come tomorrow. - Byron Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all I have put the new figures into my file. I do note that 180 is in the center. For a lot of fields this is desirable because of the large effects of El Nino. But for land stuff it seems desirable to have the break elsewhere, perhaps with 0 meridian centered. I think this will be the case for precip, and so it probably should be for T too? It will mean we have a mixture in the chapter but that may be better that strict adherence to something that makes no sense in some cases. I am opening this up for your views. Kevin Byron Gleason wrote: -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [4]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2173. 2005-07-14 21:48:56 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 21:48:56 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: IMPORTANT - The next steps for chapter 6 enroute to THE FOD to: cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de, Bette Otto-Bleisner , Keith Briffa , joos , olgasolomina@yandex.ru, Eystein Jansen , jto@u.arizona.edu Hi all - in the last few emails, we have suggested that you serve as "head" lead authors for the various sections of our chapter. One main purpose of this email is to make sure you are comfortable with the responsibility and have time for it. The other main goal is to explain what is expected of each of you. First, here's a list of who's heading what sections. We picked you guys since you have proven to be intellectual leaders on the team, but also because you have track records of getting the job done on time. The one person we worry about is Olga, since she is leaving soon for the field, but nonetheless, we'd like all her input on Box 6.3 before she leaves. We will take over after then. Exec Summary and Section 6.1 - PECK and EYSTEIN Section 6.2 - DAVID Section 6.3 - STEFAN Section 6.4 - BETTE Section 6.5 - KEITH Section 6.6 - FORTUNAT Box 6.1 - DAVID Box 6.2 - FORTUNAT Box 6.3 - OLGA Box 6.4 - KEITH Second, what is needed? Here is a list that has come to mind. We'd like you all to comment on this list (use the email list used for this email), so that we all agree about what we're doing in the next couple weeks. 1) Your primary job is to make sure your section (text, tables, figs and refs) is as perfect as possible. Each of us has to be careful about how we schedule things so that we have the job DONE by July 24. 2) Each of you should solicit feedback and edits from the ENTIRE LA team, plus relevant CAs. This is obviously to get the best ideas possible, but also to ensure that all on the LA team have had input. Please create a check list and make sure that you have some sort of feedback (at least an "OK") from each LA. We suggest you start asap, and don't expect LAs to just respond to the emails we just sent - many of the LAs just don't respond in a timely fashion (thankfully, you guys are not on that list!). 2.5) Monitor all chapter listserv traffic for your input, as some LAs prefer to communicate only in that way. 3) Please explicitly ask for feedback on the text, tables, figs and refs. 4) With respect to text, try hard to get it down to size (see below), and to ensure that it is FOCUSED on only that science which is policy relevant. ALL TEXT should support an Exec Summary Bullet. If it doesn't the text should be removed, or a bullet created for discussion with our team. Also, although it is ultimately our job to try to make the chapter flow as one document, please do what you can to make your section's text flow with the other sections. Look to make sure all information is compatible across sections, and that the same type of language/style is used (to the extent you can. 4.4) We hope that you will start your process by reading THE ENTIRE CHAPTER carefully, and sending your comments for each section to the "head" LA for that section. This will get things moving fast, and help with the compatibility issues mentioned in #4 above. 5) With respect to the figures (and table), make sure each one is as compelling as possible. To save space (see below) you might decide a figure has to go. You might decide a new figure has to be included (only if there is space!). Work to get the figure redrafted where needed to be perfect - a sign of ultimate success will be that our figs get into the TS/SPM docs. Peck will be on that team, and will push hard, but figures MUST BE POLICY RELEVANT AND COMPELLING. 6) With respect to refs, please make sure that only the most relevant ones are cited, and that all of the citations are complete and entered into your copy of the master chapter endnote file. Although we expect to cite our own work where it makes sense, please be double sure that we're not going overboard in this regard - it won't look good to the outside world (e.g., skeptics) if we appear self-serving at all. 7) If you run into any debates that can't be easily solved (i.e. with all LAs happy), please consult with us. It is our job to make the ultimate calls, since someone has to do it. Again, it is our goal to make sure that no one is left with a bad feeling about our product. On the other hand, we have to make sure we stick to only the best science. 8) We'll be asking to make sure we have all the CAs listed. Let us know if you need to consult with any new ones. AGain, we must do what it takes to get the science and message as perfect as possible. CA consultation at this point is encouraged where it will help. For example, we need to get out the Pre-Q box to some Pre-Q experts - we are discussing w/ David. 9) At any point you need input, ask. We are happy to talk on the phone, and can call you or a group if you want a conference call. We are doing this already, and it can save lots of time. Or email. Both of us will be mostly around save a day or two. 10) Size and need to cut some sections. Because of recent changes in the TSU, we haven't been able to get the latest word, but we suspect that our comments in the FOD draft just sent are true - some sections have a real space issue (factor in figures), others less so. We'll provide more on this soon, and we expect that if you follow the above guidelines, you'll be getting things into more focus, and hopefully less space - especially section 6.3. When thinking about Figs, Tables and Refs, also be thinking "How can I save space?" 11) Feel free to bring in other LAs to help you coordinate. For example, for section 6.3, Bette and Dominique (to be back soon) can be a big help, Stefan. Keith is working with Tim and Ricardo, but also some others to do the job he has left. Etc. 12) We will start sending more info next week, and will help reach consensus on what we're doing, and by when if needed. Let us know what we've missed, and what might be wrong or unclear. Ok, that's more than enough. Thanks again for helping us lead the next big push! Best, Peck and Eystein -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 4504. 2005-07-15 11:06:31 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 15 11:06:31 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: paleoT to: Tom Wigley Tom, This Briffa series is just a three site average (trees from Tornetrask, Polar Urals and Taimyr) - all in northern Eurasia. It is therefore for a limited region and is likely just the summer, whereas some of the others have regressed on annual T for the NH (or north of 20N). Of these 3, the first two are in most of the other series (Esper, Crowley, Jones, Mann) and also for HF in Moberg. Not sure whether Taimyr is in any of the others. Esper uses a different standardization approach, but should have most of the same trees, but only TRW. The others use our reconstructions which have MXD is as well. Have you tried these correlations after extracting the LF trends (say residuals from a 30 or 50 yr filter)? Would expect some of them to be much, much lower. Keith's reconstruction that would be much better is the one that goes back to only about 1400. Do you have this? Go here [1]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html then click on paleo data, then on obtaining and look for Keith's - it says 600 years in the title. You can get the data. Cheers Phil At 21:57 14/07/2005, you wrote: Phil, I eventually refiltered all the paleo data and have compared these with likewise filtered MAGICC output. Very interesting results. Can you comment, off the record, on Keith's paleo series. Here are correlations of individual series against the 7 series average. (Different series lengths, but essentially same results over common lengths.) SERIES 1000-1610 1610-1995 1000-1995 Briffa -.272 .262 .207 Esper .583 .917 .687 Crowley .879 .946 .902 Jones .773 .917 .861 Mann .760 .856 .822 M&J-NH .929 .965 .936 Moberg .904 .856 .871 Correlations with the climate model are not the same -- but Briffa is again the clear outlier. Why? Tom. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1564. 2005-07-15 11:40:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: , , Jay Lawrimore , Byron Gleason , david.easterling@noaa.gov date: Fri Jul 15 11:40:55 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: RE: [Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Re: Some more thoughts on DTR map for to: Lisa et al, Thanks. Forwarding to the others at NCDC involved in all the discussions. I think the main conclusion to draw from all this is that 1979-2004 is too short a period. If Russ produces a map for 1951-2004 then hopefully they will all look much more similar. We should likely go with one of these plots. We probably need to consider if we want a trend map. I would say yes, as if we get the right one, it will show that DTR is decreasing as an average, but definitely not in many locations. There are certainly lots of potential problem areas as Lisa alludes to, as does the detail from Aiguo. Cheers Phil Reply-To: From: "Lisa Alexander" To: "'Kevin Trenberth'" , "'Phil Jones'" , "'Klein Tank, Albert'" Subject: RE: [Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Re: Some more thoughts on DTR map for 1979-2004]] Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 20:07:11 +1000 Organization: BMRC, Bureau of Meteorology - Australia X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Hi all, I have plotted up the 1979-2003 DTR trends using the global extremes data. Ive tried to use a similar colour scheme and range to Aiguo since he also has trends for the longer period. Things to note:- 1. I have only used quality controlled stations which have at least 40 years of data between 1951-2003. This is because otherwise I would have had to regrid all of the data which would take some more time to complete. The spatial coverage would be better if I say regridded using stations that had at least 20 years of data between 1979 and 2003 and this might be something worth considering. 2. Figure caption:- Observed trends per decade for 1979-2003 for the diurnal temperature range index. Trends were calculated for grid boxes which had at least 20 years of data during this period and ended no later than 1999. Black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level using the method of Wang and Swail, [2001]. 3. I have used the HadCM3 grid size (2.5 x 3.75). 4. There are very few areas showing significant change. We can safely say that there is not general agreement between the 3 results! I agree well with Aiguo in some regions and with Russ in others. For comparison I asked Dean Collins to plot DTR trends for Australia for the two periods (attached). I would say that Russ and I agree better over Australia than Aiguo. Since Dean and I source the same daily data our results should be similar but there are some differences in detail which would need to be checked out. Aiguo and I agree better in terms of the sign of the trend over South America but not in magnitude. I have not read Russs or Aiguos papers so I cant comment on their methods. Potential areas of discrepancy are: 1. Are we all using exactly the same definition of DTR? 2. Data sources. 3. Different gridding methodologies. 4. Different trend calculation methodologies and missing data tolerance. One might suggest that the sample size is too small to accurately calculate trends over 25 years. However it is quite worrying that the sign of the trend can be so different between the methods. When I calculated the correlation decay distances for the paper, DTR was one of the less coherent indices which may be a factor. For some reason Im having trouble getting the percentile maps and timeseries diagram exactly how you want them. Perhaps its because its Friday. Im attaching what I have so far. Y-axis now represents the anomalies in days. Perhaps Ill have better luck on Monday. Regards. Lisa. - Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5058. 2005-07-15 12:36:04 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 15 12:36:04 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: greetings and paper to: Neil Ward Neil, Noted the likely date. Phil At 00:55 15/07/2005, you wrote: Phil - just a quick note as I begin this travel - I'll be flying out of Norwich on Aug 4, so meetings on Aug 3 would seem to make sense - I should be checking e-mail from time to time while traveling and will watch for your suggestions of meetings and timings - Thanks and look forward to catching up and good discussions - Neil Phil Jones wrote: Neil, A number of people should be around on those dates. I'll cc this reply to a number of people who you'll know or will have heard of you. Jean is at the Hadley Centre and Tom is there also (although still working for CRU) Let me know a firmer date nearer the time. Cheers Phil At 22:27 21/06/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, I'm planning to be in Southern England around July 27 - Aug 4 - indeed likely will even pass through Norwich airport - therefore, if yourself and/or others at CRU are around it could be a good opportunity to spend a day catching up and exploring research areas of mutual interest - hopefully everyone won't be on vacation watching the Ashes series... All the best, Neil -- Dr. Neil Ward Director, Decision Systems Research International Research Institute for Climate Prediction The Earth Institute at Columbia University 101 Monell Bldg., LDEO 61 Route 9W Palisades, NY 10964-8000 Phone: 845-680-4446 Fax: 845-680-4865 Email: nward@iri.columbia.edu Internet: [1]http://iri.columbia.edu Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5261. 2005-07-16 21:01:56 ______________________________________________________ cc: ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar, drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu, Eystein Jansen , dolago@uonbi.ac.ke, jcole@geo.arizona.edu, r.ramesh@prl.ernet.in, tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu date: Sat, 16 Jul 2005 21:01:56 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure to: Keith Briffa Thanks Keith, and Ed, and to all the others on this email for being willing (I hope) to help create some excellent short sections for the Chapter 6 FOD. Ricardo - hope you're down there and able to get the SH section. Just to make sure you're not confused, what we're looking for is 1) a figure w/ available long T recons, plus borehole, either as single SH curve, or regional (e.g., Austrialia and southern Africa) and 2) some short prose (paragraph or two) giving an overview - i.e., that a SH composite recon is not possible, but that we do have some good long recons and they show... (plus borehole). Focus is on temperature. Ricardo - do you have this under control, and can we expect something in the next couple days? Pretty, please? Por favor? Ricardo and Ed - I guess you guys and I need to think about a short section on variability (e.g., ENSO to add to Keith's NAO - will have to at least say something about PDO and AMO too, even if it is that we don't have good recons). Julie is ready to help on the ENSO part - we have the prose - it just needs to be tightened up. I think we (me, Julie, R and E) should try to work in any of the regional forcing that is policy-relevant. The rest will have to be deleted. Then there is a short section on hydrological change over the last millennium. We don't have room to do everything, so I suggest we go with those regions with GOOD records and a clear story. If needed, we can mention other regions very briefly. I think the regions for which some prose (probably no figure, although maybe we could squeeze in N. America a la Cook et al's recent Science stuff): - North America (Ed, Julie and I write) - North Africa (East and West - I can write and hopefully get some input from Dan Olago. Note that this is partly a monsoon story. Couple good papers JUST out on East Africa. - Monsoon Asia - trickier, but Ramesh and I can try something if he's game Any others? Bottom line - I'd like to hear ASAP from each of you indicating you are around, and willing to do this work FAST (this week if possible) Ed? Ricardo? Julie (Ok, I know where to find her!) Ramesh? Dan? Keith - I'm assuming you are just aching for us to send you stuff, and that you'll be working hard - as you indicate - on the other stuff, particularly the MWP fig. Want to talk again about that? Remember that the idea was a Tom C esque fig, but only for the MWP. I think you were exploring the incorporation of other data sets too, but perhaps not. Again - many thanks, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 1828. 2005-07-17 20:40:15 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu date: Sun, 17 Jul 2005 20:40:15 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure to: "Ricardo Villalba" Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a big fan of the Jones and Mann SH recon. It is based on so little. On the other hand, it is in the literature. So, I leave it up to you and Keith to decide - perhaps Eystein can weigh in too. I do, however, think it would be really helpful to included the borehole data (see prev. emails) - either as a single SH curve, or (probably better) two regional curves (Australia and S. Africa). Is there a reason this is not a good idea? Can't complain about snow bias down there... Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the next draft and figure - complete w/ borehole I hope. thx, Peck >Hi Keith, > >Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed Cook >returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall, he >agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp data to >include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month ago. > >In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to the Jones >and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH. At that time we have >to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the >regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include Antarctica >(Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with the >hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at the >bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain both >hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at the >bottom of my figure. Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein to see >the best way to proceed? Thanks, > >Ricardo > > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Keith Briffa" >To: ; "Eystein Jansen" >Cc: ; "Ed Cook" >Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM >Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure > > >> Guys >> still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am exploring the >MWP >> Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to do a >> plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry - I am happy to >> very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the ENSO >stuff ) >> but my understanding is that this section is best done (to incorporate >also >> the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my Peck. This >> is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the regional >> forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps not. >> Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will incorporate it >but >> that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the North >> Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section . >> It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff and >> involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the Figure . In >> meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing text and >bullets >> Keith >> >> Keith >> >> >> >> -- >> Professor Keith Briffa, >> Climatic Research Unit >> University of East Anglia >> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >> >> >> > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern >hemisphere2.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2559. 2005-07-18 07:07:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , "Ricardo Villalba" , Eystein Jansen , edwardcook date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 07:07:10 -0400 from: edwardcook subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure to: Jonathan Overpeck Given the nature of the SH and what Ricardo put together, I would keep the Australian and South Aftrican borehole records separate. Henry Pollack can provide them, I am sure. He gave an excellent talk at a meeting in Canberra that I recently participated in. Cheers, Ed P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction. JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL TEMPERATURES YEAR TEMP °C 900 13.751 901 14.461 902 13.236 903 13.331 904 13.483 905 13.632 906 12.959 907 13.628 908 13.372 909 12.868 910 13.244 911 13.793 912 14.048 913 14.444 914 13.095 915 14.036 916 13.215 917 13.698 918 13.570 919 13.665 920 13.871 921 13.966 922 14.762 923 14.325 924 14.077 925 14.713 926 14.081 927 14.218 928 13.793 929 14.151 930 14.985 931 13.599 932 14.663 933 14.110 934 14.968 935 14.391 936 15.484 937 15.554 938 14.977 939 15.303 940 15.179 941 15.591 942 14.737 943 14.007 944 14.865 945 14.449 946 14.350 947 15.096 948 15.257 949 15.789 950 15.303 951 15.513 952 16.111 953 15.723 954 15.459 955 14.015 956 13.083 957 13.850 958 14.069 959 13.772 960 14.873 961 14.692 962 14.923 963 14.527 964 15.034 965 14.688 966 14.486 967 14.444 968 14.436 969 13.776 970 13.809 971 14.391 972 13.487 973 13.995 974 14.061 975 14.321 976 14.882 977 14.226 978 14.977 979 15.447 980 14.424 981 14.923 982 14.180 983 15.484 984 13.487 985 14.168 986 14.176 987 15.699 988 15.187 989 16.305 990 14.845 991 14.647 992 15.765 993 14.754 994 14.271 995 13.623 996 14.300 997 13.937 998 14.040 999 14.011 1000 12.976 1001 13.904 1002 13.500 1003 13.586 1004 14.090 1005 13.809 1006 13.413 1007 13.318 1008 13.892 1009 14.151 1010 14.391 1011 13.793 1012 14.626 1013 13.755 1014 13.838 1015 13.017 1016 13.083 1017 13.549 1018 13.471 1019 13.087 1020 13.458 1021 13.203 1022 14.090 1023 13.574 1024 13.755 1025 13.826 1026 13.137 1027 13.194 1028 14.036 1029 13.091 1030 13.768 1031 13.813 1032 13.846 1033 13.871 1034 14.255 1035 14.370 1036 13.805 1037 14.576 1038 13.504 1039 13.867 1040 14.927 1041 14.420 1042 15.661 1043 15.484 1044 15.595 1045 14.741 1046 13.644 1047 14.271 1048 14.288 1049 13.661 1050 13.665 1051 13.298 1052 14.003 1053 13.826 1054 13.788 1055 13.768 1056 12.976 1057 13.397 1058 13.529 1059 13.549 1060 13.846 1061 14.032 1062 14.820 1063 13.962 1064 14.279 1065 14.151 1066 14.358 1067 14.131 1068 13.652 1069 13.941 1070 14.007 1071 14.403 1072 13.764 1073 13.982 1074 13.846 1075 13.830 1076 13.450 1077 13.632 1078 13.265 1079 13.331 1080 14.267 1081 13.644 1082 13.549 1083 13.557 1084 13.549 1085 14.725 1086 13.479 1087 12.848 1088 12.559 1089 12.926 1090 13.793 1091 14.387 1092 14.531 1093 14.114 1094 14.754 1095 14.688 1096 14.845 1097 14.729 1098 15.059 1099 15.059 1100 15.055 1101 16.057 1102 15.208 1103 15.492 1104 14.519 1105 14.741 1106 14.151 1107 15.005 1108 13.640 1109 13.652 1110 13.566 1111 13.978 1112 14.424 1113 14.180 1114 14.931 1115 14.601 1116 14.403 1117 14.391 1118 14.981 1119 15.125 1120 13.817 1121 12.897 1122 13.863 1123 14.271 1124 14.857 1125 14.882 1126 14.762 1127 14.548 1128 14.403 1129 14.667 1130 14.572 1131 14.057 1132 14.556 1133 15.018 1134 13.892 1135 13.995 1136 13.982 1137 14.853 1138 14.779 1139 15.129 1140 15.117 1141 14.849 1142 15.228 1143 15.216 1144 15.030 1145 14.428 1146 15.063 1147 15.216 1148 15.043 1149 15.034 1150 14.370 1151 15.096 1152 15.410 1153 15.719 1154 16.577 1155 15.769 1156 15.364 1157 15.855 1158 15.422 1159 14.515 1160 15.810 1161 15.628 1162 15.402 1163 15.092 1164 15.298 1165 14.865 1166 14.882 1167 15.274 1168 14.605 1169 14.746 1170 15.472 1171 15.509 1172 15.018 1173 15.369 1174 15.084 1175 15.855 1176 14.795 1177 15.571 1178 14.255 1179 14.510 1180 14.865 1181 14.036 1182 14.688 1183 14.713 1184 14.519 1185 14.255 1186 15.204 1187 14.461 1188 15.476 1189 14.882 1190 15.005 1191 14.453 1192 14.729 1193 15.265 1194 14.444 1195 14.696 1196 15.793 1197 14.581 1198 15.014 1199 14.539 1200 14.044 1201 14.733 1202 14.853 1203 15.298 1204 13.772 1205 13.991 1206 14.651 1207 14.836 1208 14.440 1209 15.162 1210 14.766 1211 15.010 1212 15.356 1213 14.787 1214 15.645 1215 15.435 1216 15.043 1217 15.063 1218 14.151 1219 15.397 1220 15.154 1221 15.892 1222 15.488 1223 15.938 1224 15.525 1225 15.591 1226 14.589 1227 15.496 1228 15.963 1229 14.502 1230 14.457 1231 15.468 1232 14.985 1233 15.282 1234 14.989 1235 15.237 1236 15.711 1237 15.888 1238 14.259 1239 14.560 1240 15.711 1241 15.195 1242 15.484 1243 15.166 1244 16.020 1245 16.454 1246 15.480 1247 15.492 1248 16.528 1249 15.150 1250 14.436 1251 14.878 1252 15.723 1253 15.043 1254 15.121 1255 14.845 1256 14.807 1257 14.482 1258 14.585 1259 15.307 1260 15.100 1261 14.354 1262 13.995 1263 14.106 1264 14.403 1265 14.754 1266 14.581 1267 14.799 1268 14.378 1269 14.671 1270 14.193 1271 14.387 1272 14.453 1273 14.510 1274 15.187 1275 15.393 1276 14.498 1277 14.560 1278 15.022 1279 14.498 1280 14.725 1281 13.549 1282 14.977 1283 14.065 1284 14.024 1285 13.603 1286 15.220 1287 15.080 1288 14.898 1289 14.774 1290 15.542 1291 15.212 1292 14.267 1293 14.692 1294 13.644 1295 14.222 1296 15.038 1297 14.721 1298 15.682 1299 13.896 1300 14.766 1301 14.836 1302 14.370 1303 14.812 1304 14.812 1305 13.673 1306 14.036 1307 13.929 1308 14.807 1309 14.114 1310 13.446 1311 13.368 1312 14.168 1313 14.989 1314 14.292 1315 14.985 1316 14.123 1317 14.321 1318 13.966 1319 14.325 1320 14.647 1321 14.622 1322 14.279 1323 14.510 1324 13.689 1325 13.450 1326 14.197 1327 13.867 1328 14.205 1329 14.779 1330 14.350 1331 14.729 1332 13.479 1333 13.974 1334 14.453 1335 14.535 1336 15.402 1337 14.424 1338 14.399 1339 14.906 1340 15.430 1341 14.531 1342 15.785 1343 15.513 1344 15.220 1345 15.352 1346 15.443 1347 15.410 1348 15.777 1349 14.902 1350 14.576 1351 14.605 1352 14.168 1353 14.601 1354 15.414 1355 14.300 1356 14.630 1357 15.170 1358 14.919 1359 14.688 1360 14.081 1361 14.799 1362 14.581 1363 15.133 1364 13.838 1365 14.708 1366 13.149 1367 13.281 1368 13.760 1369 14.123 1370 13.314 1371 14.523 1372 14.267 1373 14.226 1374 14.044 1375 14.271 1376 15.307 1377 14.684 1378 14.168 1379 14.473 1380 13.578 1381 13.586 1382 13.999 1383 13.991 1384 13.710 1385 14.411 1386 13.867 1387 14.255 1388 13.611 1389 13.974 1390 13.916 1391 13.615 1392 14.440 1393 14.787 1394 15.880 1395 16.297 1396 16.289 1397 15.170 1398 16.082 1399 15.463 1400 14.366 1401 14.758 1402 14.902 1403 14.568 1404 15.158 1405 15.579 1406 13.966 1407 13.970 1408 13.772 1409 14.523 1410 14.498 1411 14.791 1412 14.007 1413 15.818 1414 13.974 1415 13.776 1416 13.760 1417 14.407 1418 14.498 1419 14.515 1420 14.341 1421 14.374 1422 13.677 1423 14.354 1424 13.223 1425 13.801 1426 14.560 1427 14.374 1428 14.494 1429 15.051 1430 14.836 1431 13.999 1432 14.341 1433 14.865 1434 15.063 1435 15.311 1436 15.765 1437 15.789 1438 15.204 1439 15.298 1440 15.257 1441 15.443 1442 14.737 1443 15.385 1444 15.723 1445 14.717 1446 15.088 1447 15.253 1448 14.477 1449 16.004 1450 14.581 1451 14.449 1452 14.993 1453 14.151 1454 14.556 1455 14.366 1456 14.601 1457 13.813 1458 14.242 1459 15.047 1460 14.919 1461 14.300 1462 15.010 1463 14.139 1464 15.001 1465 14.873 1466 15.406 1467 14.399 1468 14.671 1469 15.092 1470 14.337 1471 14.948 1472 15.047 1473 14.523 1474 14.680 1475 14.395 1476 15.661 1477 15.158 1478 15.414 1479 15.641 1480 15.909 1481 15.748 1482 14.708 1483 14.981 1484 14.659 1485 15.113 1486 14.754 1487 15.740 1488 15.327 1489 15.125 1490 15.026 1491 15.567 1492 15.265 1493 15.996 1494 16.326 1495 14.915 1496 15.831 1497 14.845 1498 15.670 1499 16.156 1500 15.864 1501 15.831 1502 16.581 1503 15.212 1504 15.534 1505 15.270 1506 15.492 1507 15.633 1508 14.420 1509 15.723 1510 14.816 1511 15.282 1512 15.641 1513 14.655 1514 14.510 1515 13.508 1516 14.172 1517 14.251 1518 13.628 1519 13.698 1520 13.405 1521 13.920 1522 13.974 1523 13.978 1524 14.238 1525 14.003 1526 13.298 1527 13.694 1528 15.005 1529 14.218 1530 14.110 1531 14.593 1532 13.916 1533 14.510 1534 14.057 1535 14.048 1536 13.673 1537 14.477 1538 14.090 1539 14.300 1540 14.374 1541 14.387 1542 14.085 1543 14.184 1544 14.597 1545 14.783 1546 15.348 1547 15.859 1548 15.835 1549 14.729 1550 15.451 1551 15.204 1552 15.022 1553 15.352 1554 14.251 1555 14.135 1556 14.609 1557 14.572 1558 15.224 1559 14.688 1560 14.618 1561 15.179 1562 14.399 1563 14.873 1564 13.652 1565 13.958 1566 15.595 1567 14.898 1568 13.595 1569 14.019 1570 15.030 1571 15.228 1572 15.241 1573 16.355 1574 14.865 1575 14.923 1576 15.542 1577 15.162 1578 14.956 1579 15.657 1580 15.208 1581 15.208 1582 15.166 1583 14.473 1584 14.052 1585 14.213 1586 14.568 1587 14.762 1588 14.288 1589 14.069 1590 13.929 1591 13.479 1592 14.044 1593 14.267 1594 14.288 1595 14.609 1596 14.362 1597 13.846 1598 14.098 1599 14.147 1600 14.783 1601 13.995 1602 13.925 1603 13.999 1604 14.688 1605 13.892 1606 15.410 1607 14.325 1608 15.241 1609 15.104 1610 14.531 1611 15.958 1612 14.597 1613 14.337 1614 14.647 1615 13.318 1616 14.424 1617 13.768 1618 14.779 1619 14.886 1620 14.065 1621 14.085 1622 14.626 1623 13.912 1624 13.487 1625 14.292 1626 13.075 1627 13.871 1628 13.850 1629 13.755 1630 14.680 1631 14.048 1632 14.601 1633 15.752 1634 14.420 1635 14.085 1636 14.230 1637 15.426 1638 16.322 1639 14.762 1640 14.882 1641 14.985 1642 14.931 1643 15.484 1644 15.843 1645 14.861 1646 14.284 1647 14.494 1648 14.935 1649 13.966 1650 14.296 1651 13.768 1652 15.001 1653 14.944 1654 15.418 1655 15.146 1656 14.915 1657 14.803 1658 14.638 1659 14.630 1660 14.052 1661 13.702 1662 14.081 1663 14.312 1664 14.197 1665 13.780 1666 14.292 1667 14.634 1668 13.768 1669 14.671 1670 14.246 1671 14.812 1672 15.216 1673 15.810 1674 14.869 1675 16.148 1676 14.977 1677 14.923 1678 15.488 1679 14.956 1680 14.098 1681 14.523 1682 15.327 1683 15.666 1684 15.554 1685 15.270 1686 15.492 1687 15.459 1688 14.754 1689 14.741 1690 14.700 1691 14.906 1692 13.904 1693 14.527 1694 15.063 1695 14.399 1696 15.096 1697 15.360 1698 15.694 1699 15.249 1700 14.779 1701 14.609 1702 15.336 1703 15.121 1704 15.154 1705 15.212 1706 14.750 1707 15.472 1708 14.164 1709 13.665 1710 14.213 1711 14.741 1712 15.521 1713 15.410 1714 14.519 1715 15.154 1716 14.597 1717 15.212 1718 14.688 1719 13.962 1720 15.109 1721 15.839 1722 15.765 1723 15.001 1724 15.389 1725 15.088 1726 14.655 1727 14.312 1728 14.824 1729 14.981 1730 13.640 1731 15.043 1732 13.953 1733 13.681 1734 14.036 1735 13.937 1736 14.832 1737 14.807 1738 14.325 1739 14.337 1740 14.680 1741 14.779 1742 14.255 1743 14.205 1744 14.024 1745 14.069 1746 15.216 1747 15.455 1748 15.447 1749 15.851 1750 15.253 1751 14.626 1752 15.294 1753 15.744 1754 15.158 1755 14.750 1756 15.319 1757 15.059 1758 15.195 1759 14.725 1760 14.609 1761 14.869 1762 15.212 1763 15.505 1764 14.634 1765 15.175 1766 14.552 1767 15.109 1768 14.312 1769 14.090 1770 14.246 1771 14.127 1772 14.667 1773 14.312 1774 14.659 1775 14.296 1776 14.527 1777 14.069 1778 15.005 1779 14.832 1780 15.146 1781 14.865 1782 14.102 1783 13.735 1784 14.510 1785 14.052 1786 14.795 1787 15.455 1788 15.298 1789 14.325 1790 14.927 1791 14.230 1792 14.230 1793 14.836 1794 15.637 1795 15.022 1796 14.473 1797 14.968 1798 14.028 1799 13.463 1800 14.151 1801 15.187 1802 15.290 1803 15.732 1804 14.985 1805 15.224 1806 16.251 1807 13.289 1808 14.420 1809 14.696 1810 14.568 1811 15.802 1812 16.082 1813 16.416 1814 16.082 1815 16.309 1816 15.967 1817 16.247 1818 15.208 1819 15.587 1820 15.323 1821 15.505 1822 14.812 1823 15.298 1824 15.022 1825 15.179 1826 15.967 1827 14.040 1828 14.449 1829 14.242 1830 14.548 1831 14.378 1832 15.137 1833 13.496 1834 14.081 1835 15.228 1836 14.700 1837 14.432 1838 14.927 1839 14.482 1840 15.175 1841 14.296 1842 14.762 1843 14.350 1844 14.770 1845 15.026 1846 14.688 1847 14.944 1848 15.088 1849 14.774 1850 14.865 1851 14.787 1852 14.527 1853 14.502 1854 15.183 1855 14.828 1856 15.270 1857 14.436 1858 14.721 1859 14.539 1860 14.407 1861 14.832 1862 14.271 1863 14.490 1864 13.953 1865 15.290 1866 14.473 1867 15.414 1868 14.440 1869 15.129 1870 15.022 1871 15.468 1872 14.993 1873 14.890 1874 14.638 1875 14.898 1876 14.993 1877 14.366 1878 14.333 1879 13.454 1880 15.369 1881 15.109 1882 15.187 1883 15.278 1884 14.308 1885 15.026 1886 15.385 1887 15.183 1888 14.127 1889 14.985 1890 15.480 1891 14.717 1892 15.773 1893 14.807 1894 15.451 1895 15.179 1896 13.780 1897 14.531 1898 13.912 1899 14.354 1900 15.290 1901 15.752 1902 14.886 1903 15.216 1904 15.938 1905 15.208 1906 14.279 1907 14.923 1908 15.022 1909 15.501 1910 15.633 1911 15.212 1912 13.648 1913 14.329 1914 15.389 1915 14.704 1916 15.983 1917 14.779 1918 14.432 1919 14.024 1920 14.040 1921 14.622 1922 15.315 1923 14.560 1924 15.835 1925 14.927 1926 14.812 1927 15.220 1928 16.433 1929 14.506 1930 14.535 1931 14.073 1932 14.440 1933 15.406 1934 14.708 1935 15.026 1936 14.106 1937 13.372 1938 14.663 1939 13.842 1940 13.879 1941 14.725 1942 14.510 1943 14.337 1944 15.133 1945 14.189 1946 14.048 1947 14.098 1948 14.923 1949 14.733 1950 14.581 1951 15.121 1952 14.073 1953 14.572 1954 14.106 1955 14.457 1956 14.849 1957 14.626 1958 15.374 1959 15.183 1960 14.970 1961 15.140 1962 15.289 1963 14.991 1964 14.395 1965 14.991 1966 15.587 1967 14.948 1968 14.948 1969 14.629 1970 15.779 1971 16.354 1972 15.247 1973 14.671 1974 15.353 1975 16.141 1976 14.586 1977 14.863 1978 15.332 1979 14.948 1980 14.906 1981 15.481 1982 14.991 1983 14.117 1984 15.353 1985 15.225 1986 15.587 1987 15.140 1988 14.863 1989 16.098 1990 15.417 1991 14.991 1992 14.096 1993 14.160 1994 15.183 1995 15.119 1996 15.630 1997 14.927 1998 15.417 1999 16.354 On Jul 17, 2005, at 10:40 PM, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a big fan of the Jones and > Mann SH recon. It is based on so little. On the other hand, it is in > the literature. So, I leave it up to you and Keith to decide - perhaps > Eystein can weigh in too. > > I do, however, think it would be really helpful to included the > borehole data (see prev. emails) - either as a single SH curve, or > (probably better) two regional curves (Australia and S. Africa). Is > there a reason this is not a good idea? Can't complain about snow bias > down there... > > Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the next draft and figure - > complete w/ borehole I hope. > > thx, Peck > >> Hi Keith, >> >> Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed >> Cook >> returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall, >> he >> agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp >> data to >> include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month >> ago. >> >> In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to >> the Jones >> and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH. At that time >> we have >> to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the >> regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include >> Antarctica >> (Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with >> the >> hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at >> the >> bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain >> both >> hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at >> the >> bottom of my figure. Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein >> to see >> the best way to proceed? Thanks, >> >> Ricardo >> >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Keith Briffa" >> To: ; "Eystein Jansen" >> Cc: ; "Ed Cook" >> >> Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM >> Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure >> >> >>> Guys >>> still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am exploring >>> the >> MWP >>> Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to >>> do a >>> plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry - I am >>> happy to >>> very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the ENSO >> stuff ) >>> but my understanding is that this section is best done (to >>> incorporate >> also >>> the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my >>> Peck. This >>> is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the >>> regional >>> forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps not. >>> Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will >>> incorporate it >> but >>> that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the >>> North >>> Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section . >>> It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff and >>> involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the >>> Figure . In >>> meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing text >>> and >> bullets >>> Keith >>> >>> Keith >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>> Climatic Research Unit >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>> >>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>> >>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>> >>> >>> >> >> Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern hemisphere2.doc >> (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0) > > > -- > Jonathan T. Overpeck > Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > Professor, Department of Geosciences > Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > > Mail and Fedex Address: > > Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > University of Arizona > Tucson, AZ 85721 > direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > fax: +1 520 792-8795 > http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > > ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== 3715. 2005-07-18 07:39:13 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 07:39:13 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Re: Your spaghetti figure to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi, if what Tom writes is correct, then I would think it is not necessary to have a separate paper. But we need to be sure so as not to break any of the regulations since this will be one of the most scrutinized sections of the whole 4AR. I guess it is now up to how Keith and Tim takes the MWP box further and what ends up in the figure. Cheers, Eystein At 21:35 -0600 17-07-05, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >Hi Tom - thx for the quick response. It sounds >like you don't need to do the extra pub. Keith >and Eystein, do you agree? Tom can help make >sure everything is ok, and should probably be a >Contributing Author for the effort. Is that >appropriate, all? Tom has already given us lots >of useful review comments, and I suspect (am I >right, Tom) that would be willing to review some >more, in addition to helping make sure Keith and >Tim get the figure we're thinking about right? >Of course, if we run into a methodological or >space problem, the fig might still not make it, >but Keith, Eystein and I talked and have agreed >that it would be good to hammer home that >available data do not support the concept of a >single (or multiple) globally synchronous (e.g., >to the degree that the late 20th century is) >warm events during anyone's definition of >Medieval times. We also agreed that this fig >would focus on that issue only, and not Medieval >warmth vs 20th century. This amplitude issue is >dealt with in the main "temps of the last 2K" >figs that Tim and Keith produced. But, given all >the misunderstanding and misrepresenting that is >going on wrt to the Medieval Warm Period, we >concluded that it's worth the extra space to >address the issue in more than one way - hence >the decision to try to do something along the >lines of your figure. > >It's in Keith and Tim's hands for the next step - they're working away. > >Thanks again to all, best, peck > >Thx, peck > >>Quoting Jonathan Overpeck : >> >> >>Jonathan, can do, but I am wondering if we need to - seven of the curves have >>been processed in the way we describe in the >>Hegerl et al paper to nature that >>gabi sent you - s.d.s even listed in >>supplementary file. the only exception is >>the Alberta record, which Lockhart (sp?) >>extended recently to about 900 - that >>is published too - so each of the records has >>gone through some peer-processing >>- so should the figure itself, based on those data, still require an extra >>reference? if so I will still do it, but I >>wonder if it is needed. please get >>back to me soon on this, tom >> >>> Hi Tom - Looks like we (Keith) is going to try to come up w/ a new >>> version of your figure for our MWP Box. We're banking on Susan giving >>> us the extra space for this and a couple other things, but I >>> recommend you do that quick EOS paper you mentioned. Still ok? >>> >>> Many thanks. >>> >>> best, peck >>> -- >>> Jonathan T. Overpeck >>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>> Professor, Department of Geosciences >>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>> >>> Mail and Fedex Address: >>> >>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>> University of Arizona >>> Tucson, AZ 85721 >>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 456. 2005-07-18 08:23:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jul 18 08:23:57 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: CRU TS 2.1 to: m.salmon@uea.ac.uk Mike, Can you make the CRU TS 2.1 data available to two people - in a similar way to you have done for Bruno Rudolf last week? The two people are Aiguo Dai and Karl Taylor Karl Taylor Cheers Phil Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 11:04:16 -0600 From: Aiguo Dai User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.0; en-US; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 (ax) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Phil Jones CC: Kevin Trenberth , m.salmon@uea.ac.uk Subject: Re: DTR and CRU data X-Spam-Score: 0.0 X-Spam-Level: / X-Spam-Flag: NO Hi, Phil, I'd like to use the updated CRU TS2.1 data set if it can be put somewhere I can pick up. However, I will not be able to do much more analyses for the next month or so as I am leaving for China for about a month. If the new data set is in a similar format as CRU TS2.02, I may be able to have a quick look before I leave. Regards, Aiguo Phil Jones wrote: Aiguo, The DTR exchanges have served one useful purpose. I've realized that you're using an earlier CRU dataset. We have a new one - see attached paper. If you want I can arrange for you to be given access to the CRU TS 2.1 version. This has more DTR data for recent years and the fields run up to 2002. Send an email to Mike Salmon, if you would like this data. It isn't yet set up for simple downloading. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Aiguo Dai, Scientist Email: adai@ucar.edu Climate & Global Dynamics Division Phone: 303-497-1357 National Center for Atmospheric Research Fax : 303-497-1333 P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/ Street Address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, USA Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3267. 2005-07-18 09:01:20 ______________________________________________________ cc: Celine Bonfils , trenbert@ucar.edu date: Mon Jul 18 09:01:20 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: need daily max/min or dtr climatology to: Karl Taylor Karl, The earlier email should set you up for collecting the new CRU TS 2.1 dataset. Your email about DTR is quite timely considering all the email traffic we've had on the issue over the past week. I'll try to briefly summarise this and send you some figures. Most relate to trends over the periods 1950/1-2003/4 or 1979-2003/4. Apologies for resending your figures, but together with the others we have, they are useful background. In answer to 2) there are 3 versions of DTR that we've been looking at: - one from NCDC, Russ Vose, a trend map so far for 1979-2004 - various plots from Aiguo Dai at NCAR - plots for 1950-2003 and 1979-2003 from Lisa Alexander (who is an HC employee but works at BoM in Melbourne at the moment) After your three the png file is from NCDC (Russ Vose, who's currently away). The next is from Lisa for 1951-2003 The next two are from NCDC and are trends over the USA and the final two are from Aiguo Dai and include some other fields like cloud All this may be more than you want, but these are the three versions we are potentially working with. If you look at the trends for the approximately the same periods, you will see the problems we have. Trends are often opposite for some regions (southern South America, Spain). There are some other plots as well, but these are enough for the moment. We will likely go with a trend map for 1951-2004, as these are closer. The differences for 1979-2004 reflect problems, but also are due to the period being too short. So, this answers 2) and also 4). Lisa is HC, so her version is essentially what the HC could produce. NCDC's version uses thousands of stations (~5000). Lisa's uses stations that have been collected through workshops, so QC is likely better. Aiguo's is CRU up to a point then has synop data for more recent years. Ch 3 needs to resolve these trend differences. We may not fully succeed in time for the FOD, but we need to go with one of these. As for 1), I'd suggest you use CRU TS 2.1. This will be globally complete. I would suggest you only go with the period 1951-2004 or a part thereof (i.e 1961-90 if you want). CRU is globally complete (except for Antarctica), so omit 60-90S (you seem to have done this). Also models should be land only. The best zones for the obs are 70-30N and 20-40S. Tropics less good, but I reckon the obs are not that much out Greenland isn't good in CRU. Is there a possibility of plotting a model-obs field and seeing that? Do you adjust the models for elevation? DTR tends to be higher with elevation. DTR also has a marked seasonal cycle. Can you see if the models are closer in DJF than JJA, for example? Hope these few ideas help and you can get access to the data. Kevin may have some other ideas. Cheers Phil PS I'm away after today and not back in CRU till Friday. At 00:11 17/07/2005, Karl Taylor wrote: Hi Phil, For the model evaluation chapter of the IPCC AR4 we need the climatological monthly means of daily Tmax-Tmin. Celine Bonfils, who is working with me, obtained what we needed (at .5x.5 degree resolution) from your web site and plotted the zonal mean (over land areas only). We also took the difference between the models' diurnal temperature range (DTR) and the observed. I've attached a few figures showing samples of the results for annual means of DTR. I have a few questions: 1) Do you think the observations are reliable enough to conclude that the model's largely underestimate DTR? 2) Are there alternative obs. data sets available? 3) Who should I contact at the Hadley Centre to get their HadTX and HadTN data? ([1]http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadtx/) 4) How does your DTR climatology compare to the one at NCDC, analyzed by Tom Karl and Dave Easterling? I'm trying to get my section of chpt. 8 finished, so any quick responses would be much appreciated. thanks, Karl Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2329. 2005-07-18 09:38:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: l.alexander@bom.gov.au, Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl, Jay Lawrimore , Byron Gleason , david.easterling@noaa.gov, aiguo dai , David Parker date: Mon Jul 18 09:38:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: RE: [Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Re: Some more thoughts on DTR map for to: Kevin Trenberth Dear All, I'm away after today until Friday. I've arranged for Aiguo to get the latest CRU data. Also, I've sent some of the plots on to Karl Taylor (at PCMDI). Karl is writing for Ch 8 on model evaluation and is checking a plot of zonal mean abs DTR against the models. He's using the CRU data as the obs absolute. This isn't that relevant for the trends, but we need to be aware that most models underestimate abs DTR by between 2-4 K. I've suggested he sticks with CRU data as he has it. It would be useful though to get abs DTR for comparison from NCDC at some point. Cheers Phil At 16:15 15/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all and many thanks to Lisa for thie maps. Some points I would make 1) The trends are not significant locally but when they are the same sign over large areas, one gains significance. It means that small differences, like Aiguo using 1979 to 2004 and Lisa 1979 to 2003 can make a difference, and 1950 vs 1951 for the start. The end points matter a lot with trends. It also suggests that this ought not to be done with fine grain structure but rather with a much coarser grid. 2) The arguments about significance apply for all fields not just DTR. This has long been an issue with the MSU record, for instance: all the differences in dispute are in fact not significant mostly. Since we decided to go with 1979-2004, I think we should try to stick with that and see if we can get a coarse grain product. 3) There are nonetheless major differences with the Vose product in places like Spain and South America that clearly require a lot more work from NCDC to sort out. Aiguo has the advantage of a whole lot more data from all the synops, but the disadvantage of not having the fine quality control. 4) Lisa's map seems to have colors in it that are not in the color bar. (Or vice versa: the color bar is weird) Most places the agreement is not that bad with Aiguo, Australia being an exception. Phil noted that Aiguo has been using an older version of the CRU data. 5) It may be that we need to look at some time series to see what years are causing the trends to be so different in a few places. e.g. Spain, Argentina, some spots in the US? Got to run Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Lisa et al, Thanks. Forwarding to the others at NCDC involved in all the discussions. I think the main conclusion to draw from all this is that 1979-2004 is too short a period. If Russ produces a map for 1951-2004 then hopefully they will all look much more similar. We should likely go with one of these plots. We probably need to consider if we want a trend map. I would say yes, as if we get the right one, it will show that DTR is decreasing as an average, but definitely not in many locations. There are certainly lots of potential problem areas as Lisa alludes to, as does the detail from Aiguo. Cheers Phil Reply-To: [1] From: "Lisa Alexander" [2] To: "'Kevin Trenberth'" [3], "'Phil Jones'" [4], "'Klein Tank, Albert'" [5] Subject: RE: [Fwd: Re: [Fwd: Re: Some more thoughts on DTR map for 1979-2004]] Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 20:07:11 +1000 Organization: BMRC, Bureau of Meteorology - Australia X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.2627 Hi all, I have plotted up the 1979-2003 DTR trends using the global extremes data. Ive tried to use a similar colour scheme and range to Aiguo since he also has trends for the longer period. Things to note:- 1. I have only used quality controlled stations which have at least 40 years of data between 1951-2003. This is because otherwise I would have had to regrid all of the data which would take some more time to complete. The spatial coverage would be better if I say regridded using stations that had at least 20 years of data between 1979 and 2003 and this might be something worth considering. 2. Figure caption:- Observed trends per decade for 1979-2003 for the diurnal temperature range index. Trends were calculated for grid boxes which had at least 20 years of data during this period and ended no later than 1999. Black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level using the method of Wang and Swail, [2001]. 3. I have used the HadCM3 grid size (2.5 x 3.75). 4. There are very few areas showing significant change. We can safely say that there is not general agreement between the 3 results! I agree well with Aiguo in some regions and with Russ in others. For comparison I asked Dean Collins to plot DTR trends for Australia for the two periods (attached). I would say that Russ and I agree better over Australia than Aiguo. Since Dean and I source the same daily data our results should be similar but there are some differences in detail which would need to be checked out. Aiguo and I agree better in terms of the sign of the trend over South America but not in magnitude. I have not read Russs or Aiguos papers so I cant comment on their methods. Potential areas of discrepancy are: 1. Are we all using exactly the same definition of DTR? 2. Data sources. 3. Different gridding methodologies. 4. Different trend calculation methodologies and missing data tolerance. One might suggest that the sample size is too small to accurately calculate trends over 25 years. However it is quite worrying that the sign of the trend can be so different between the methods. When I calculated the correlation decay distances for the paper, DTR was one of the less coherent indices which may be a factor. For some reason Im having trouble getting the percentile maps and timeseries diagram exactly how you want them. Perhaps its because its Friday. Im attaching what I have so far. Y-axis now represents the anomalies in days. Perhaps Ill have better luck on Monday. Regards. Lisa. - Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [6]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [7]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [8]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4965. 2005-07-18 09:44:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jul 18 09:44:11 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Text and CQ stuff to: Kevin Trenberth , Kevin Trenberth , Peter Ambenje , Roxana Bojariu , David Easterling , Fatemeh Rahimzadeh , Jim Renwick , Matilde Rusticucci , Brian Soden , Panmao Zhai , Albert Klein Tank , David Parker , "Solomon, Susan" Kevin, David has all the numbers. I'll be down in Exeter tomorrow and Wednesday. I'll try and find a few minutes to talk to him about it. Cheers Phil At 22:59 16/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all I have started going thru the text a bit more thoroughly. At present the description of the global mean temperature record is for a warming of 0.6C during the 20th Century. That is the linear reprducible value. But it is not a useful value as the trend is not linear. In the recent paper by Raper et al on SST they make a point to give values for both the linear trend and the change from the low pass filtered record. The latter is quite a bit bigger. I would like to see us adopt something similar. The question then is how to characterise the record. Here is my attempt: words However, the record is best characterized as level prior to about 1920, a warming to 1940 or so, leveling out or even slightly decreasing until 1970, and a fairly linear trend since then. Going by the low pass filtered data, the overall warming through 2005 is 0.75ºC, with 0.5ºC increase occurring after 1970. To illustrate this I tried to capture the sense of this in the accompanying ppt. There are two slides. Make sure you go into slide show mode to view them. You will see the first has a smoothed trend the second has linear segments that join. The idea is to also capture the overall error bars to a reasonable degree, as you can see. In fact this could be linked to the modeling and attribution chapter to say that the warming in the first part of the 20th century was partly due to solar, the cooling from 1940 to 1970 to increased aerosol, and the warming after 1970 to the increasing GHGs. This could work very well as part of the CQ2. Ideally the background global mean values should not have the red bars on it but should just be a time series with error bars. The curves which I fitted by eyeball using power point should be done more rigorously, perhaps using a cubic spline fit with strong tension., or a series of segments with divides at 1940 and 1970. Then a linear value with the given starting point could be determined for both the mean and both end of the error bars. I am seeking feedback on this idea. 1) Is it a good idea and has your support? 2) Any comments or suggestions? 3) Any volunteers to do it more rigorously? Any such person would need the mean and error bars to do this from David or Phil? 4) Do you prefer the straight lines or smoothed values? Thanks Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [1]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [2]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3718. 2005-07-18 10:58:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Tom Crowley date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 10:58:09 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, Eystein and Tom: See below (BOLD) for my comments. Thanks for moving this forward and making sure we do it right (i.e., without any bias, or perception of bias). >Dear Peck, Eystein and Tom >At this point we thought it was important to >review where we think we are with the MWP Figure. > >First, we have no objection to a Figure . Our >only concerns have been that we should >1/... be clear what we wish this Figure to >illustrate (in the specific context of the MWP >box) - note that this is very different from >trying to produce a Figure in such a way as to >bias what it says (I am not suggesting that we >are, but we have to guard against any later >charge that we did this). We say this because >there are intonations in some of Peck's previous >messages that he wishes to "nail" the MWP - >i.e. this could be interpreted as trying to say >there was no such thing, and SORRY TO SCARE YOU. I **ABSOLUTELY** AGREE THAT WE MUST AVOID ANY BIAS OR PERCEPTION OF BIAS. MY COMMENT ON "NAILING" WAS MADE TO MEAN THAT ININFORMED PEOPLE KEEPING COMING BACK TO THE MWP, AND DESCRIBING IT FOR WHAT I BELIEVE IT WASN'T. OUR JOB IS TO MAKE IT CLEAR WHAT IT WAS WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE DATA. IF THE DATA ARE NOT CLEAR, THEN WE HAVE TO BE NOT CLEAR. THAT SAID, I THINK TOM'S FIGURE CAPTURED WHAT I HAVE SENSED IS THE MWP FOR A LONG TIME, AND BASED ON OTHER SOURCES OF INFO - INCLUDING KEITH'S PROSE. THE IDEA OF A FIGURE, IS THAT FIGURES CAN BE MORE COMPELLING AND CONNECT BETTER THAN TEXT. ALSO, THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO LOOK AT THE MWP, AND AS LONG AS WE DON'T INTRODUCE BIAS OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT WILL DILUTE THE MESSAGE IN THE END, THE IDEA IS TO SHOW THE MWP IN MORE WAYS THAN TWO (THAT IS, THE EXISTING FIGS IN THE TEXT THAT KEITH AND TIM MADE). > 2/ ...agree that we have done this in the best way. >The truth is that there IS a period of relative >warmth around the end of the 1st and start of >the 2nd millennium C.E. , but that there are >much fewer data to base this conclusion on (and >hence the uncertainty around even our multiple >calibrated multi-proxy reconstructions are >wide). The geographical spread of data also >impart a northern (and land) bias in our early >proxy data. NEED TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS BIAS IN THE CAPTION AND BOX TEXT >My understanding of Tom's rationale with the >Figure is that we should show how, because the >timing of maximum pre-20th century warmth is >different in different records, the magnitude of >the warmest period (for the Hemisphere , or >globe, as a whole) is less than the recently >observed warmth. YES, BUT IN A WAY THAT SAYS "LOOK, HERE ARE THE ACTUAL REGIONAL CURVES - CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF" INSTEAD OF JUST SAYING (IN A SCIENTIFICALLY MORE STANDARD MANNER - HERE ARE THE VARIOUS, MOST ROBUST, LARGE AREA RECONSTRUCTIONS. IN MY MIND, THE LATTER (KEITH/TIM FIGS IN THE MAIN TEXT) WILL BE THE MOST APPEALING/CONVINCING TO PALEOCLIMATE SCIENTISTS, BUT TOM'S MIGHT HELP THERE, AND CERTAINLY WITH NON-PALEO SCIENTISTS AND POLICY FOLKS. MIGHT HELP... IF IT DOESN'T NOTHING LOST, BUT IF IT COULD HURT CONVEYING UNDERSTANDING, THEN ITS BAD TO USE THE NEW FIGURE. >The reconstructions we plot in Chapter 6 already >express the mean Hemispheric warmth (after >various selection and scaling of data), and so >the additional information that the MWP box >figure should show must relate to the scatter of >the proxy data. There seems to be a consensus >that this is best done by showing individual >records , and we are happy to agree. >What we worry very much about, however, is that >we should not produce a Figure that then >conflicts with the picture of proxy evidence for >Hemispheric mean warmth as a whole,shown in the >main Chapter Figure. By showing a composite (as >Tom has done) and scaling against another >(30-90degrees N) temperature record - this is >just what is done. ABSOLUTELY RIGHT - CAN'T HAVE CONFLICT. >As we promised, Tim has produced a similar >Figure, using the same series plus a few extras, >but omitting the composite mean and the scaling >against instrumental temperatures. The idea was >to include as many of the original input series >(to the various reconstructions) as we could - >though avoiding conflicting use of different >versions of the same data. The precise selection >of records will have to be agreed and, >presumably, based on some clear, objective >criteria that we would need to justify (this >will not be straight forward). This, along with >Tom's plot (forwarded by Peck) is in the >attachment. > >We would like to get your opinion now, and >especially Tom's, on the points regarding the >composite and scaling. We would be in favour of >just showing the series - but do they make the >point (and emphasise the message of the text in >the box)? Or does the scatter of the various >series as plotted, dilute the message about the >strength of 20th century mean warming (note the >apparently greater scatter in the 20th century >in our figure than in Tom's)? Can you all chip >in here please. >best wishes WHAT ABOUT THE IDEA THAT WE ONLY SHOW THE SERIES FOR THE MWP, SINCE THE COMPARISON TO THE 20TH CENTURY IS DONE WELL (AND BEST?) IN THE TEXT FIGS (WHICH I'M ATTACHING JUST IN CASE TOM DOESN'T HAVE, ALONG WITH THE TEXT - IF YOU HAVE TIME, TOM, PLEASE READ COMMENT ON ANYTHING YOU WISH, BUT CERTAINLY THE LAST 2000 YEARS BIT - ASSUME YOU'LL BE DOING THIS AT THE REVIEW STAGE ANYHOW...) ANOTHER THING THAT IS A REAL ISSUE IS SHOWING SOME OF THE TREE-RING DATA FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 1950. BASED ON THE LITERATURE, WE KNOW THESE ARE BIASED - RIGHT? SO SHOULD WE SAY THAT'S THE REASON THEY ARE NOT SHOWN? OF COURSE, IF WE ONLY PLOT THE FIG FROM CA 800 TO 1400 AD, IT WOULD DO WHAT WE WANT, FOCUS ON THE MWP ONLY - THE TOPIC OF THE BOX - AND SHOW THAT THERE WERE NOT ANY PERIODS WHEN ALL THE RECORDS ALL SHOWED WARMTH - I.E., OF THE KIND WE'RE EXPERIENCING NOW. TWO CENTS WORTH >Keith and Tim >P.S. We agreed in Beijing that we should definitely ask Tom to be a CA . TRUE - BUT HAS ANYONE CONFIRMED W/ TOM. TOM, YOU OK W/ THIS? THANKS - A GREAT DISCUSSION, AND LETS SAY THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS FIGURE UNTIL WE ALL ARE COMFORTABLE WITH WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE END. BEST, PECK > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:mwpbox_figures.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0008A8AE) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Ch06_FOD_11_text1.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Ch06_FOD_11_figures2.doc" 2046. 2005-07-18 11:49:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jul 18 11:49:50 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Re: This and that to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Keith, Tim, They have sent these responses to the media and back to the US Committee today. Phil Date: Fri, 15 Jul 2005 10:59:54 -0400 From: "Michael E. Mann" Reply-To: mann@psu.edu Organization: Dept. of Meteorology, Penn State University User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 1.0.2 (Windows/20050317) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Phil Jones Subject: Re: This and that X-Spam-Score: 0.0 X-Spam-Level: / X-Spam-Flag: NO thanks Phil, please treat the attached as confidential (mine and also a copy of Ray's that he sent me). They are being provided to the media w/ an embargo until midnight sunday (since the committee officially receives these monday morning). I'm happy to be settling in at Penn State now, though I wish I could focus on that lone and didn't have the nuisance of this other stuff to deal w/. i hope your summer is going well, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Thanks. It would appear that you're doing a joint response, which seems a good idea. Thanks in advance for the draft, when you can send it. I notice the new email address. I'll make sure I use this in future. It is even shorter now ! Hope you're settling in and getting a warm welcome. Cheers Phil At 14:40 15/07/2005, you wrote: HI Phil, Thanks--well, needless to say been very busy w/ the response to this inquiry, but we're pretty happy w/ the way things are going. I'll provide you a draft of our formal response once I can. Meanwhile, I've attached some of the articles/statements/etc that have come out in support of us. This is proving very helpful, and ultimately may be a deciding factor in forcing these guys into retreat. more soon, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Hope the move is going well ! Nice to see the pieces by Rich Monastersky and Tom Crowley and the letter from AAAS (that Kevin sent me). Didn't realize you had a deadline to reply to. Hope that is going well also. Sent a reminder to Scott about the data - no rush, away most of the next week and still have a lot to do on IPCC. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3273. 2005-07-18 11:50:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 11:50:46 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box to: Tom Crowley Tom - thanks. Let's see what Keith says too. My comments below (BOLD) >a few comments - > >1) are you trying to choose between my way of >presenting things and your way - ie, w w/out >composite? IF YOU USE A COMPOSITE IN THE BOX FIGURE, THEN IT SHOULD MATCH ONE OF THE COMPOSITE SERIES IN THE TEXT FIGS. THAT WOULD BE OK? 2) with your data, do they all go through from beginning to end? KEITH HAS TO ANSWER 3) why include chesapeake, which is likely a salinity record? KEITH HAS TO ANSWER, BUT DON'T NEED A SALINITY RECORD. 4) some of your data are from virtually the same site - Mangazeja and yamal are both w. siberia - I composited data available from multiple sites to produce one time series, which is equally counted against the other regions, which might (greenland, w.U.S., e. Asia) or might not have multiple records in them KEITH HAS TO ANSWER >5) I am not sure whether it is wise to add me to >the CA list, just because the reviewer is >supposed to be impartial and a CA loses that >appearance of impartiality if he has now been >included as a CA - may want to check with Susan >S. on this one to be sure - still happy to >provide advice WE CAN CHECK W/ SUSAN (WE HAVE A FEW THINGS TO DISCUSS W/ HER). LETS SEE WHAT THE FIG DISCUSSION LEADS TO FIRST. FRANKLY, I'D RATHER HAVE YOUR COMMENTS ON OUR NEW DRAFT BEFORE WE COMPLETE THE FOD, BUT I SEE YOUR POINT. IT HAS BEEN NICE HAVING YOUR INDEPENDENT COMMENTS. >6) I am happy to go in either direction - >include or not include my figure - all I need >are specific directions as to what to do, as >CLAs you people need to decide, and then just >tell me what or what not to do THANKS - LETS SEE WHAT KEITH SAYS ABOUT ALL THIS. >7) I am a little unhappy with the emphasis on >hemispheric warmth - lets face it, almost all of >the long records are from 30-90N - the question >is: how representative is 30-90N to the rest of >the world? for the 20th c. one can do >correlations with the instrumental record, but >co2 has almost certainly increased the >correlation scale beyond what it was >preanthropogenic. you could correlate with >quelcaya - not sure how many other records >there are that are annual resolution - in the >tropics I have produced a tropical composite >(corals + Quelc.) but it only goes back to ~1780 >- corals just don't live v long - in that >interval at least the agreement is satisfactory >with the mid latitude reconstruction but there >is only 100 years extra of independent >information beyond the instrumental >record...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSEDAS A >GENERAL ISSUE SOMEWHERE (SHORTLY) IN YOUR DOC I AGREE THAT WE NEED TO BE CLEAR ON THIS. KEITH? > >tom >THANKS AGAIN, PECK > > >Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > >>Hi Keith, Eystein and Tom: See below (BOLD) for >>my comments. Thanks for moving this forward and >>making sure we do it right (i.e., without any >>bias, or perception of bias). >> >>>Dear Peck, Eystein and Tom >>>At this point we thought it was important to >>>review where we think we are with the MWP >>>Figure. >>> >>>First, we have no objection to a Figure . Our >>>only concerns have been that we should >>>1/... be clear what we wish this Figure to >>>illustrate (in the specific context of the MWP >>>box) - note that this is very different from >>>trying to produce a Figure in such a way as to >>>bias what it says (I am not suggesting that we >>>are, but we have to guard against any later >>>charge that we did this). We say this because >>>there are intonations in some of Peck's >>>previous messages that he wishes to "nail" >>>the MWP - i.e. this could be interpreted as >>>trying to say there was no such thing, and >> >> >>SORRY TO SCARE YOU. I **ABSOLUTELY** AGREE THAT >>WE MUST AVOID ANY BIAS OR PERCEPTION OF BIAS. >>MY COMMENT ON "NAILING" WAS MADE TO MEAN THAT >>ININFORMED PEOPLE KEEPING COMING BACK TO THE >>MWP, AND DESCRIBING IT FOR WHAT I BELIEVE IT >>WASN'T. OUR JOB IS TO MAKE IT CLEAR WHAT IT WAS >>WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE DATA. IF THE DATA ARE >>NOT CLEAR, THEN WE HAVE TO BE NOT CLEAR. THAT >>SAID, I THINK TOM'S FIGURE CAPTURED WHAT I HAVE >>SENSED IS THE MWP FOR A LONG TIME, AND BASED ON >>OTHER SOURCES OF INFO - INCLUDING KEITH'S >>PROSE. THE IDEA OF A FIGURE, IS THAT FIGURES >>CAN BE MORE COMPELLING AND CONNECT BETTER THAN >>TEXT. ALSO, THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO LOOK AT THE >>MWP, AND AS LONG AS WE DON'T INTRODUCE BIAS OR >>ANYTHING ELSE THAT WILL DILUTE THE MESSAGE IN >>THE END, THE IDEA IS TO SHOW THE MWP IN MORE >>WAYS THAN TWO (THAT IS, THE EXISTING FIGS IN >>THE TEXT THAT KEITH AND TIM MADE). >> >>> 2/ ...agree that we have done this in the best way. >>>The truth is that there IS a period of >>>relative warmth around the end of the 1st and >>>start of the 2nd millennium C.E. , but that >>>there are much fewer data to base this >>>conclusion on (and hence the uncertainty >>>around even our multiple calibrated >>>multi-proxy reconstructions are wide). The >>>geographical spread of data also impart a >>>northern (and land) bias in our early proxy >>>data. >> >> >>NEED TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS BIAS IN THE CAPTION AND BOX TEXT >> >>>My understanding of Tom's rationale with the >>>Figure is that we should show how, because the >>>timing of maximum pre-20th century warmth is >>>different in different records, the magnitude >>>of the warmest period (for the Hemisphere , or >>>globe, as a whole) is less than the recently >>>observed warmth. >> >> >>YES, BUT IN A WAY THAT SAYS "LOOK, HERE ARE THE >>ACTUAL REGIONAL CURVES - CHECK IT OUT FOR >>YOURSELF" INSTEAD OF JUST SAYING (IN A >>SCIENTIFICALLY MORE STANDARD MANNER - HERE ARE >>THE VARIOUS, MOST ROBUST, LARGE AREA >>RECONSTRUCTIONS. IN MY MIND, THE LATTER >>(KEITH/TIM FIGS IN THE MAIN TEXT) WILL BE THE >>MOST APPEALING/CONVINCING TO PALEOCLIMATE >>SCIENTISTS, BUT TOM'S MIGHT HELP THERE, AND >>CERTAINLY WITH NON-PALEO SCIENTISTS AND POLICY >>FOLKS. MIGHT HELP... IF IT DOESN'T NOTHING >>LOST, BUT IF IT COULD HURT CONVEYING >>UNDERSTANDING, THEN ITS BAD TO USE THE NEW >>FIGURE. >> >>>The reconstructions we plot in Chapter 6 >>>already express the mean Hemispheric warmth >>>(after various selection and scaling of data), >>>and so the additional information that the MWP >>>box figure should show must relate to the >>>scatter of the proxy data. There seems to be a >>>consensus that this is best done by showing >>>individual records , and we are happy to agree. >>>What we worry very much about, however, is >>>that we should not produce a Figure that then >>>conflicts with the picture of proxy evidence >>>for Hemispheric mean warmth as a whole,shown >>>in the main Chapter Figure. By showing a >>>composite (as Tom has done) and scaling >>>against another (30-90degrees N) temperature >>>record - this is just what is done. >> >> >>ABSOLUTELY RIGHT - CAN'T HAVE CONFLICT. >> >>>As we promised, Tim has produced a similar >>>Figure, using the same series plus a few >>>extras, but omitting the composite mean and >>>the scaling against instrumental temperatures. >>>The idea was to include as many of the >>>original input series (to the various >>>reconstructions) as we could - though >>>avoiding conflicting use of different versions >>>of the same data. The precise selection of >>>records will have to be agreed and, >>>presumably, based on some clear, objective >>>criteria that we would need to justify (this >>>will not be straight forward). This, along >>>with Tom's plot (forwarded by Peck) is in the >>>attachment. >>> >>>We would like to get your opinion now, and >>>especially Tom's, on the points regarding the >>>composite and scaling. We would be in favour >>>of just showing the series - but do they make >>>the point (and emphasise the message of the >>>text in the box)? Or does the scatter of the >>>various series as plotted, dilute the message >>>about the strength of 20th century mean >>>warming (note the apparently greater scatter >>>in the 20th century in our figure than in >>>Tom's)? Can you all chip in here please. >>>best wishes >> >> >>WHAT ABOUT THE IDEA THAT WE ONLY SHOW THE >>SERIES FOR THE MWP, SINCE THE COMPARISON TO THE >>20TH CENTURY IS DONE WELL (AND BEST?) IN THE >>TEXT FIGS (WHICH I'M ATTACHING JUST IN CASE TOM >>DOESN'T HAVE, ALONG WITH THE TEXT - IF YOU HAVE >>TIME, TOM, PLEASE READ COMMENT ON ANYTHING YOU >>WISH, BUT CERTAINLY THE LAST 2000 YEARS BIT - >>ASSUME YOU'LL BE DOING THIS AT THE REVIEW STAGE >>ANYHOW...) >> >>ANOTHER THING THAT IS A REAL ISSUE IS SHOWING >>SOME OF THE TREE-RING DATA FOR THE PERIOD AFTER >>1950. BASED ON THE LITERATURE, WE KNOW THESE >>ARE BIASED - RIGHT? SO SHOULD WE SAY THAT'S THE >>REASON THEY ARE NOT SHOWN? OF COURSE, IF WE >>ONLY PLOT THE FIG FROM CA 800 TO 1400 AD, IT >>WOULD DO WHAT WE WANT, FOCUS ON THE MWP ONLY - >>THE TOPIC OF THE BOX - AND SHOW THAT THERE WERE >>NOT ANY PERIODS WHEN ALL THE RECORDS ALL SHOWED >>WARMTH - I.E., OF THE KIND WE'RE EXPERIENCING >>NOW. >> >>TWO CENTS WORTH >> >> >>>Keith and Tim >>>P.S. We agreed in Beijing that we should definitely ask Tom to be a CA . >> >> >>TRUE - BUT HAS ANYONE CONFIRMED W/ TOM. TOM, YOU OK W/ THIS? >> >>THANKS - A GREAT DISCUSSION, AND LETS SAY THE >>JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS FIGURE UNTIL WE ALL >>ARE COMFORTABLE WITH WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE >>END. >> >>BEST, PECK >> >>> >>>-- >>>Professor Keith Briffa, >>>Climatic Research Unit >>>University of East Anglia >>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>> >>>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>> >>> >>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:mwpbox_figures.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0008A8AE) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 316. 2005-07-18 12:22:19 ______________________________________________________ cc: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,p.jones@uea.ac.uk date: Mon Jul 18 12:22:19 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: crowley to: Tom Wigley as a first quick response - the Crowley numbers came from his paper with Lowery. I seem to remember that there were 2 versions of the composite that he produced - certainly we used the data that did not include Sargasso and Michigan site data. I presume the other (from the CRU web site) were the data used by Phil and Mike Mann that they got from him (where exactly did you pick then up from?)and could be the other data set (with those sites included). It seems odd that the values are so high in the recent period of this series and could conceivably be instrumental data , but would have to check. The scaling of the data we used to produce the Crowley curve that formed one of the lines in our spaghetti diagram (that we put on the web site under my name and made available to NGDC), was based on taking the unscaled composite he sent and re-calibrating against April - Sept. average for land North of 20 degrees Lat., and repeating his somewhat bazaar calibration procedure (which deliberately omitted the data between 1900-1920 that did not fit with the instrumental data (remember his data are also decadal smoothed values). In fact , as we were using summer data we calibrated over 1881-1900 (avoiding the high early decades that I still believe are biased in summer) and 1920 - 1960 , whereas he used 1856-1880 and 1920-1965. Of the precise details might differ - but the crux of the matter is that I suspect one of the Figures you show may have instrumental data in the recent period - but not ours. If you say exactly where these series came from I can ask Tim (who will have done the calibrations) to check. As for the second question , the QR data are averaged ring widths from relatively few site chronologies in the high north (mostly N.Eurasia - Scandinavia,Yamal,Taimyr), though with a few other site data added in as stated. The 2001 data are the MXD data from near 400 sites and provide the best interannual to multidecadal indication of summer temps for land areas north of 20 degrees than any of the true proxy (ie not including instrumental ) data. No idea what the correlation over the common 600 year period is - but I have never said that the ring width is anything other than summer temps for the area it covers . Keith At 20:38 15/07/2005, you wrote: Keith, Look at the attached. Can you explain to me why these plots differ -- particularly after 1880? Could you also explain why the Briffa data in QR 2000 are so poorly correlated with the Briffa 2001 data? I think I know the answers, but I want an independent and spontaneous answer from you. Thanks, Tom. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 819. 2005-07-18 13:23:30 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 13:23:30 -0400 from: Tom Crowley subject: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box to: Jonathan Overpeck a few comments - 1) are you trying to choose between my way of presenting things and your way - ie, w w/out composite? 2) with your data, do they all go through from beginning to end? 3) why include chesapeake, which is likely a salinity record? 4) some of your data are from virtually the same site - Mangazeja and yamal are both w. siberia - I composited data available from multiple sites to produce one time series, which is equally counted against the other regions, which might (greenland, w.U.S., e. Asia) or might not have multiple records in them 5) I am not sure whether it is wise to add me to the CA list, just because the reviewer is supposed to be impartial and a CA loses that appearance of impartiality if he has now been included as a CA - may want to check with Susan S. on this one to be sure - still happy to provide advice 6) I am happy to go in either direction - include or not include my figure - all I need are specific directions as to what to do, as CLAs you people need to decide, and then just tell me what or what not to do 7) I am a little unhappy with the emphasis on hemispheric warmth - lets face it, almost all of the long records are from 30-90N - the question is: how representative is 30-90N to the rest of the world? for the 20th c. one can do correlations with the instrumental record, but co2 has almost certainly increased the correlation scale beyond what it was preanthropogenic. you could correlate with quelcaya - not sure how many other records there are that are annual resolution - in the tropics I have produced a tropical composite (corals + Quelc.) but it only goes back to ~1780 - corals just don't live v long - in that interval at least the agreement is satisfactory with the mid latitude reconstruction but there is only 100 years extra of independent information beyond the instrumental record...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSEDAS A GENERAL ISSUE SOMEWHERE (SHORTLY) IN YOUR DOC tom Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > Hi Keith, Eystein and Tom: See below (BOLD) for my comments. Thanks > for moving this forward and making sure we do it right (i.e., without > any bias, or perception of bias). > >> Dear Peck, Eystein and Tom >> At this point we thought it was important to review where we think we >> are with the MWP Figure. >> >> First, we have no objection to a Figure . Our only concerns have been >> that we should >> 1/... be clear what we wish this Figure to illustrate (in the >> specific context of the MWP box) - note that this is very different >> from trying to produce a Figure in such a way as to bias what it says >> (I am not suggesting that we are, but we have to guard against any >> later charge that we did this). We say this because there are >> intonations in some of Peck's previous messages that he wishes to >> "nail" the MWP - i.e. this could be interpreted as trying to say >> there was no such thing, and > > > SORRY TO SCARE YOU. I **ABSOLUTELY** AGREE THAT WE MUST AVOID ANY BIAS > OR PERCEPTION OF BIAS. MY COMMENT ON "NAILING" WAS MADE TO MEAN THAT > ININFORMED PEOPLE KEEPING COMING BACK TO THE MWP, AND DESCRIBING IT > FOR WHAT I BELIEVE IT WASN'T. OUR JOB IS TO MAKE IT CLEAR WHAT IT WAS > WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE DATA. IF THE DATA ARE NOT CLEAR, THEN WE HAVE > TO BE NOT CLEAR. THAT SAID, I THINK TOM'S FIGURE CAPTURED WHAT I HAVE > SENSED IS THE MWP FOR A LONG TIME, AND BASED ON OTHER SOURCES OF INFO > - INCLUDING KEITH'S PROSE. THE IDEA OF A FIGURE, IS THAT FIGURES CAN > BE MORE COMPELLING AND CONNECT BETTER THAN TEXT. ALSO, THERE ARE MANY > WAYS TO LOOK AT THE MWP, AND AS LONG AS WE DON'T INTRODUCE BIAS OR > ANYTHING ELSE THAT WILL DILUTE THE MESSAGE IN THE END, THE IDEA IS TO > SHOW THE MWP IN MORE WAYS THAN TWO (THAT IS, THE EXISTING FIGS IN THE > TEXT THAT KEITH AND TIM MADE). > >> 2/ ...agree that we have done this in the best way. >> The truth is that there IS a period of relative warmth around the end >> of the 1st and start of the 2nd millennium C.E. , but that there are >> much fewer data to base this conclusion on (and hence the uncertainty >> around even our multiple calibrated multi-proxy reconstructions are >> wide). The geographical spread of data also impart a northern (and >> land) bias in our early proxy data. > > > NEED TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS BIAS IN THE CAPTION AND BOX TEXT > >> My understanding of Tom's rationale with the Figure is that we should >> show how, because the timing of maximum pre-20th century warmth is >> different in different records, the magnitude of the warmest period >> (for the Hemisphere , or globe, as a whole) is less than the recently >> observed warmth. > > > YES, BUT IN A WAY THAT SAYS "LOOK, HERE ARE THE ACTUAL REGIONAL CURVES > - CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF" INSTEAD OF JUST SAYING (IN A > SCIENTIFICALLY MORE STANDARD MANNER - HERE ARE THE VARIOUS, MOST > ROBUST, LARGE AREA RECONSTRUCTIONS. IN MY MIND, THE LATTER (KEITH/TIM > FIGS IN THE MAIN TEXT) WILL BE THE MOST APPEALING/CONVINCING TO > PALEOCLIMATE SCIENTISTS, BUT TOM'S MIGHT HELP THERE, AND CERTAINLY > WITH NON-PALEO SCIENTISTS AND POLICY FOLKS. MIGHT HELP... IF IT > DOESN'T NOTHING LOST, BUT IF IT COULD HURT CONVEYING UNDERSTANDING, > THEN ITS BAD TO USE THE NEW FIGURE. > >> The reconstructions we plot in Chapter 6 already express the mean >> Hemispheric warmth (after various selection and scaling of data), and >> so the additional information that the MWP box figure should show >> must relate to the scatter of the proxy data. There seems to be a >> consensus that this is best done by showing individual records , and >> we are happy to agree. >> What we worry very much about, however, is that we should not produce >> a Figure that then conflicts with the picture of proxy evidence for >> Hemispheric mean warmth as a whole,shown in the main Chapter Figure. >> By showing a composite (as Tom has done) and scaling against another >> (30-90degrees N) temperature record - this is just what is done. > > > ABSOLUTELY RIGHT - CAN'T HAVE CONFLICT. > >> As we promised, Tim has produced a similar Figure, using the same >> series plus a few extras, but omitting the composite mean and the >> scaling against instrumental temperatures. The idea was to include as >> many of the original input series (to the various reconstructions) as >> we could - though avoiding conflicting use of different versions of >> the same data. The precise selection of records will have to be >> agreed and, presumably, based on some clear, objective criteria that >> we would need to justify (this will not be straight forward). This, >> along with Tom's plot (forwarded by Peck) is in the attachment. >> >> We would like to get your opinion now, and especially Tom's, on the >> points regarding the composite and scaling. We would be in favour of >> just showing the series - but do they make the point (and emphasise >> the message of the text in the box)? Or does the scatter of the >> various series as plotted, dilute the message about the strength of >> 20th century mean warming (note the apparently greater scatter in the >> 20th century in our figure than in Tom's)? Can you all chip in here >> please. >> best wishes > > > WHAT ABOUT THE IDEA THAT WE ONLY SHOW THE SERIES FOR THE MWP, SINCE > THE COMPARISON TO THE 20TH CENTURY IS DONE WELL (AND BEST?) IN THE > TEXT FIGS (WHICH I'M ATTACHING JUST IN CASE TOM DOESN'T HAVE, ALONG > WITH THE TEXT - IF YOU HAVE TIME, TOM, PLEASE READ COMMENT ON ANYTHING > YOU WISH, BUT CERTAINLY THE LAST 2000 YEARS BIT - ASSUME YOU'LL BE > DOING THIS AT THE REVIEW STAGE ANYHOW...) > > ANOTHER THING THAT IS A REAL ISSUE IS SHOWING SOME OF THE TREE-RING > DATA FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 1950. BASED ON THE LITERATURE, WE KNOW THESE > ARE BIASED - RIGHT? SO SHOULD WE SAY THAT'S THE REASON THEY ARE NOT > SHOWN? OF COURSE, IF WE ONLY PLOT THE FIG FROM CA 800 TO 1400 AD, IT > WOULD DO WHAT WE WANT, FOCUS ON THE MWP ONLY - THE TOPIC OF THE BOX - > AND SHOW THAT THERE WERE NOT ANY PERIODS WHEN ALL THE RECORDS ALL > SHOWED WARMTH - I.E., OF THE KIND WE'RE EXPERIENCING NOW. > > TWO CENTS WORTH > > > >> Keith and Tim >> P.S. We agreed in Beijing that we should definitely ask Tom to be a CA . > > > TRUE - BUT HAS ANYONE CONFIRMED W/ TOM. TOM, YOU OK W/ THIS? > > THANKS - A GREAT DISCUSSION, AND LETS SAY THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON > THIS FIGURE UNTIL WE ALL ARE COMFORTABLE WITH WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN > THE END. > > BEST, PECK > >> >> -- >> Professor Keith Briffa, >> Climatic Research Unit >> University of East Anglia >> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >> >> Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:mwpbox_figures.pdf (PDF /«IC») >> (0008A8AE) > > > 4578. 2005-07-18 14:25:52 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jul 18 14:25:52 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Text and CQ stuff to: "Parker, David (Met Office)" , Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Even without smoothing it is possible to get a trend of nearer 0.75 if the trend starts around 1920 (especially if the cold year of 1917 is at the start). The periods chosen for Table 3.2.2 had some justification, so we need to be a little careful. As a schematic for CQ2 though, it will be a different way of showing the same data. I'll talk it over with David. Cheers Phil At 14:03 18/07/2005, Parker, David (Met Office) wrote: Kevin I will discuss with Phil when he comes. We could ask John Kennedy to do a plot. However, sub-period linear trends are already in Table 3.2.2 and, despite not being matched exactly to the sub-periods you suggest, lead to a similar conclusion (ca 0.75C warming overall). Regards David On Sat, 2005-07-16 at 22:59, Kevin Trenberth wrote: > Hi all > > I have started going thru the text a bit more thoroughly. At present > the description of the global mean temperature record is for a warming > of 0.6C during the 20th Century. That is the linear reprducible > value. But it is not a useful value as the trend is not linear. In > the recent paper by Raper et al on SST they make a point to give > values for both the linear trend and the change from the low pass > filtered record. The latter is quite a bit bigger. I would like to > see us adopt something similar. The question then is how to > characterise the record. Here is my attempt: words > > However, the record is best characterized as level prior to about > 1920, a warming to 1940 or so, leveling out or even slightly > decreasing until 1970, and a fairly linear trend since then. Going by > the low pass filtered data, the overall warming through 2005is 0.75ºC, > with 0.5ºC increase occurring after 1970. > > To illustrate this I tried to capture the sense of this in the > accompanying ppt. There are two slides. Make sure you go into slide > show mode to view them. You will see the first has a smoothed trend > the second has linear segments that join. The idea is to also capture > the overall error bars to a reasonable degree, as you can see. In > fact this could be linked to the modeling and attribution chapter to > say that the warming in the first part of the 20th century was partly > due to solar, the cooling from 1940 to 1970 to increased aerosol, and > the warming after 1970 to the increasing GHGs. > > This could work very well as part of the CQ2. > > Ideally the background global mean values should not have the red bars > on it but should just be a time series with error bars. The curves > which I fitted by eyeball using power point should be done more > rigorously, perhaps using a cubic spline fit with strong tension., or > a series of segments with divides at 1940 and 1970. Then a linear > value with the given starting point could be determined for both the > mean and both end of the error bars. > > I am seeking feedback on this idea. 1) Is it a good idea and has your > support? 2) Any comments or suggestions? > 3) Any volunteers to do it more rigorously? Any such person would > need the mean and error bars to do this from David or Phil? > 4) Do you prefer the straight lines or smoothed values? > > Thanks > Kevin > -- > **************** > Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu > Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ > P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 > Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) > > Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 -- David E Parker A2_W052 Met Office FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK email: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 Global climate data sets are available from [2]http://hadobs.org Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1552. 2005-07-18 15:42:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jul 18 15:42:46 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: updated MWP figure to: Tim Osborn Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 09:10:43 -0600 To: tcrowley@eos.duke.edu From: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: Fwd: Re: updated MWP figure Cc: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Eystein Jansen Hi Tom -- thanks for the extra effort. I'm pushing others on the author team to think hard about such a figure (space may end up being the hardest part), and I should have something to discuss w/ you soon. Thanks for being willing to shift priorities if needed. FYI - I just got reviews back from an EOS piece that took over a 1.5 months to get. And of course, they want some edits. Not the speedy venue we once knew a loved, although I bet if you really keep it short and sweet it might go faster. Best, more soon, peck X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 10:13:49 -0400 From: Tom Crowley X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Jonathan Overpeck Cc: Eystein Jansen Subject: Re: updated MWP figure Hi Jonathan, let me answer the last question first - there are actually not many records that go back that far and I have used, I think, every one except Quelcaya, which being from the southern tropics makes for a lonely but potential future inclusion (which makes no difference on the conclusion). several of the sites include multiple time series - e.g., western U.S. time series, w. Siberia time series, e. Asia, and w. Greenland. I did not want to overweight any site though because of the need for a geographic balance -- note that there are four sites each in the w. hemisphere and e. hemisphere, and that the distribution of sites in each hemisphere represents a good scatter. for almost all of these sites the references are easily imaginable based on the location of the site, but they can be provided if you are interested in including the figure. can you think of any long sites I have not included? right now I cannot..... in the overlap interval of 1500-1850 our composite has highly significant correlations with the Mann, Jones, and Briffa reconstructions that contain much more data -- thereby suggesting that use of only long time series provides a "reasonable" estimate of the last 1100 years. I have not submitted this for publication but if you are interested in including this in ipcc I can knock off a tutorial note to eos on short notice..... I am attaching the figure in several different alternate formats - cannot easily do the two you suggest from my mac, but again I can get that done with more work if you are interested - let me know where to go next - note that I originally sent this along fyi, only to be used if you thought the figure was worthwhile -- if not I will just reorder the priority of writing it up as a note, tom Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Tom - thanks for sending this plot. I'm a bit late in responding since we were moving to (and still into) our sabbatical digs in SW CO. Would you be willing to provide more on this plot in order for me to understand it better? I personally like the plot quite a bit, but between the space restrictions and other's assessment, whether we use it or not will take some real thinking. For example, it would help to have 1) a higher resolution version - eps or ai? 2) a caption or text that would spell out which records are included, and their origins (references) 3) a bibliography for those refs. 4) perhaps, you have a paper with this included? If so, can you send a prerprint? 5) some discussion of why you used the series (sites) you did, and not others - more specifically, what's wrong with others? If you don't mind helping here, I'll promise to get it in the mix for serious discussion. Of course, it's already in the mix since Eystein forwarded to Keith, and you Tim, but I want to weigh in as informed as possible. Trying to keep track of a lot, so your help is much appreciated. Thanks! Peck Hello, I have been fiddling with the best way to illustrate the stable nature of the medieval warm period - the attached plot has eight sites that go from 946-1960 in decadal std. dev. units - although small in number there is a good geographic spread -- four are from the w. hemisphere, four from the east. I also plot the raw composite of the eight sites and scale it to the 30-90N decadal temp. record. this record illustrates how the individual sites are related to the composite and also why the composite has no dramatically warm MWP -- there is no dramatically warm clustering of the individual sites. use or lose as you wish, tom -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 895. 2005-07-19 07:52:58 ______________________________________________________ cc: olgasolomina@yandex.ru date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 07:52:58 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Re: glaciers of the last 1ka in chapter 4 to: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa Hi, yes we deferred the Oerlemans figure to Ch4 due to avoid overlap, and because some in our team had doubts about the degree to which the T record is clean enough, and thus it would be more appropriate that Ch4 devote text to the result. Eystein At 10:13 -0600 18-07-05, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >Thanks Keith and Olga - just to make sure, we >are not going to show the Oerleman's temperature >curve in our chapter, correct? I think we agreed >in Beijing that from a temperature >reconstruction point of view, it is quite >suspect. Thanks again, peck > >>HI Olga >>sorry to be slow , I am struggling a bit to >>keep up with the communication and changing >>issues. Thanks for the comments - we still seem >>to have a lot to do re the reworking of the >>regional stuff?extremes , and waiting on the >>southern Hemisphere bit. Please do send the >>text to who you think most appropriate - do you >>think we need to cross reference to your bit on >>Oerleman's curve? Please advise - will wait on >>your specific comments also - how are these to >>be coordinated ? >>cheers >>KeithAt 18:13 15/07/2005, you wrote: >>>Dear Keith, >>> >>>I just red - with a lot of pleasure - the 2ka >>>and MWP in the FOD. I find it very >>>comprehensive and well done. Will come later >>>with some minor comments. I am sending you now >>>the part of the Ch 4, where I wrote a little >>>sub-chapter on glaciers (the text is with my >>>comments that I sent to Georg Kaser). Please >>>notice that there is a paragraph on Oerlemans' >>>reconstruction. I think it would be also good >>>to send your text to Tingjun Zhang to check >>>for consistency with the permafrost >>>sub-section of the ch 4.Will you do it or >>>should I contact him? >>> >>>Regards, >>>olga >> >>-- >>Professor Keith Briffa, >>Climatic Research Unit >>University of East Anglia >>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >> >>Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>Fax: +44-1603-507784 >> >>http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 262. 2005-07-19 09:31:05 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jul 19 09:31:05 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box to: Tim Osborn Date: Mon, 18 Jul 2005 11:50:46 -0600 To: Tom Crowley From: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box Cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.2 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Tom - thanks. Let's see what Keith says too. My comments below (BOLD) a few comments - 1) are you trying to choose between my way of presenting things and your way - ie, w w/out composite? IF YOU USE A COMPOSITE IN THE BOX FIGURE, THEN IT SHOULD MATCH ONE OF THE COMPOSITE SERIES IN THE TEXT FIGS. THAT WOULD BE OK? 2) with your data, do they all go through from beginning to end? KEITH HAS TO ANSWER 3) why include chesapeake, which is likely a salinity record? KEITH HAS TO ANSWER, BUT DON'T NEED A SALINITY RECORD. 4) some of your data are from virtually the same site - Mangazeja and yamal are both w. siberia - I composited data available from multiple sites to produce one time series, which is equally counted against the other regions, which might (greenland, w.U.S., e. Asia) or might not have multiple records in them KEITH HAS TO ANSWER 5) I am not sure whether it is wise to add me to the CA list, just because the reviewer is supposed to be impartial and a CA loses that appearance of impartiality if he has now been included as a CA - may want to check with Susan S. on this one to be sure - still happy to provide advice WE CAN CHECK W/ SUSAN (WE HAVE A FEW THINGS TO DISCUSS W/ HER). LETS SEE WHAT THE FIG DISCUSSION LEADS TO FIRST. FRANKLY, I'D RATHER HAVE YOUR COMMENTS ON OUR NEW DRAFT BEFORE WE COMPLETE THE FOD, BUT I SEE YOUR POINT. IT HAS BEEN NICE HAVING YOUR INDEPENDENT COMMENTS. 6) I am happy to go in either direction - include or not include my figure - all I need are specific directions as to what to do, as CLAs you people need to decide, and then just tell me what or what not to do THANKS - LETS SEE WHAT KEITH SAYS ABOUT ALL THIS. 7) I am a little unhappy with the emphasis on hemispheric warmth - lets face it, almost all of the long records are from 30-90N - the question is: how representative is 30-90N to the rest of the world? for the 20th c. one can do correlations with the instrumental record, but co2 has almost certainly increased the correlation scale beyond what it was preanthropogenic. you could correlate with quelcaya - not sure how many other records there are that are annual resolution - in the tropics I have produced a tropical composite (corals + Quelc.) but it only goes back to ~1780 - corals just don't live v long - in that interval at least the agreement is satisfactory with the mid latitude reconstruction but there is only 100 years extra of independent information beyond the instrumental record...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSEDAS A GENERAL ISSUE SOMEWHERE (SHORTLY) IN YOUR DOC I AGREE THAT WE NEED TO BE CLEAR ON THIS. KEITH? tom THANKS AGAIN, PECK Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Keith, Eystein and Tom: See below (BOLD) for my comments. Thanks for moving this forward and making sure we do it right (i.e., without any bias, or perception of bias). Dear Peck, Eystein and Tom At this point we thought it was important to review where we think we are with the MWP Figure. First, we have no objection to a Figure . Our only concerns have been that we should 1/... be clear what we wish this Figure to illustrate (in the specific context of the MWP box) - note that this is very different from trying to produce a Figure in such a way as to bias what it says (I am not suggesting that we are, but we have to guard against any later charge that we did this). We say this because there are intonations in some of Peck's previous messages that he wishes to "nail" the MWP - i.e. this could be interpreted as trying to say there was no such thing, and SORRY TO SCARE YOU. I **ABSOLUTELY** AGREE THAT WE MUST AVOID ANY BIAS OR PERCEPTION OF BIAS. MY COMMENT ON "NAILING" WAS MADE TO MEAN THAT ININFORMED PEOPLE KEEPING COMING BACK TO THE MWP, AND DESCRIBING IT FOR WHAT I BELIEVE IT WASN'T. OUR JOB IS TO MAKE IT CLEAR WHAT IT WAS WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE DATA. IF THE DATA ARE NOT CLEAR, THEN WE HAVE TO BE NOT CLEAR. THAT SAID, I THINK TOM'S FIGURE CAPTURED WHAT I HAVE SENSED IS THE MWP FOR A LONG TIME, AND BASED ON OTHER SOURCES OF INFO - INCLUDING KEITH'S PROSE. THE IDEA OF A FIGURE, IS THAT FIGURES CAN BE MORE COMPELLING AND CONNECT BETTER THAN TEXT. ALSO, THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO LOOK AT THE MWP, AND AS LONG AS WE DON'T INTRODUCE BIAS OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT WILL DILUTE THE MESSAGE IN THE END, THE IDEA IS TO SHOW THE MWP IN MORE WAYS THAN TWO (THAT IS, THE EXISTING FIGS IN THE TEXT THAT KEITH AND TIM MADE). 2/ ...agree that we have done this in the best way. The truth is that there IS a period of relative warmth around the end of the 1st and start of the 2nd millennium C.E. , but that there are much fewer data to base this conclusion on (and hence the uncertainty around even our multiple calibrated multi-proxy reconstructions are wide). The geographical spread of data also impart a northern (and land) bias in our early proxy data. NEED TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS BIAS IN THE CAPTION AND BOX TEXT My understanding of Tom's rationale with the Figure is that we should show how, because the timing of maximum pre-20th century warmth is different in different records, the magnitude of the warmest period (for the Hemisphere , or globe, as a whole) is less than the recently observed warmth. YES, BUT IN A WAY THAT SAYS "LOOK, HERE ARE THE ACTUAL REGIONAL CURVES - CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF" INSTEAD OF JUST SAYING (IN A SCIENTIFICALLY MORE STANDARD MANNER - HERE ARE THE VARIOUS, MOST ROBUST, LARGE AREA RECONSTRUCTIONS. IN MY MIND, THE LATTER (KEITH/TIM FIGS IN THE MAIN TEXT) WILL BE THE MOST APPEALING/CONVINCING TO PALEOCLIMATE SCIENTISTS, BUT TOM'S MIGHT HELP THERE, AND CERTAINLY WITH NON-PALEO SCIENTISTS AND POLICY FOLKS. MIGHT HELP... IF IT DOESN'T NOTHING LOST, BUT IF IT COULD HURT CONVEYING UNDERSTANDING, THEN ITS BAD TO USE THE NEW FIGURE. The reconstructions we plot in Chapter 6 already express the mean Hemispheric warmth (after various selection and scaling of data), and so the additional information that the MWP box figure should show must relate to the scatter of the proxy data. There seems to be a consensus that this is best done by showing individual records , and we are happy to agree. What we worry very much about, however, is that we should not produce a Figure that then conflicts with the picture of proxy evidence for Hemispheric mean warmth as a whole,shown in the main Chapter Figure. By showing a composite (as Tom has done) and scaling against another (30-90degrees N) temperature record - this is just what is done. ABSOLUTELY RIGHT - CAN'T HAVE CONFLICT. As we promised, Tim has produced a similar Figure, using the same series plus a few extras, but omitting the composite mean and the scaling against instrumental temperatures. The idea was to include as many of the original input series (to the various reconstructions) as we could - though avoiding conflicting use of different versions of the same data. The precise selection of records will have to be agreed and, presumably, based on some clear, objective criteria that we would need to justify (this will not be straight forward). This, along with Tom's plot (forwarded by Peck) is in the attachment. We would like to get your opinion now, and especially Tom's, on the points regarding the composite and scaling. We would be in favour of just showing the series - but do they make the point (and emphasise the message of the text in the box)? Or does the scatter of the various series as plotted, dilute the message about the strength of 20th century mean warming (note the apparently greater scatter in the 20th century in our figure than in Tom's)? Can you all chip in here please. best wishes WHAT ABOUT THE IDEA THAT WE ONLY SHOW THE SERIES FOR THE MWP, SINCE THE COMPARISON TO THE 20TH CENTURY IS DONE WELL (AND BEST?) IN THE TEXT FIGS (WHICH I'M ATTACHING JUST IN CASE TOM DOESN'T HAVE, ALONG WITH THE TEXT - IF YOU HAVE TIME, TOM, PLEASE READ COMMENT ON ANYTHING YOU WISH, BUT CERTAINLY THE LAST 2000 YEARS BIT - ASSUME YOU'LL BE DOING THIS AT THE REVIEW STAGE ANYHOW...) ANOTHER THING THAT IS A REAL ISSUE IS SHOWING SOME OF THE TREE-RING DATA FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 1950. BASED ON THE LITERATURE, WE KNOW THESE ARE BIASED - RIGHT? SO SHOULD WE SAY THAT'S THE REASON THEY ARE NOT SHOWN? OF COURSE, IF WE ONLY PLOT THE FIG FROM CA 800 TO 1400 AD, IT WOULD DO WHAT WE WANT, FOCUS ON THE MWP ONLY - THE TOPIC OF THE BOX - AND SHOW THAT THERE WERE NOT ANY PERIODS WHEN ALL THE RECORDS ALL SHOWED WARMTH - I.E., OF THE KIND WE'RE EXPERIENCING NOW. TWO CENTS WORTH Keith and Tim P.S. We agreed in Beijing that we should definitely ask Tom to be a CA . TRUE - BUT HAS ANYONE CONFIRMED W/ TOM. TOM, YOU OK W/ THIS? THANKS - A GREAT DISCUSSION, AND LETS SAY THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS FIGURE UNTIL WE ALL ARE COMFORTABLE WITH WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE END. BEST, PECK -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:mwpbox_figures.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0008A8AE) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3162. 2005-07-19 09:33:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 09:33:55 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Ad: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box to: Tom Crowley , Jonathan Overpeck Hi, I think both Keith's and Tom's emails highlight some of the problems when going from hemispheric scale reconstructions to plots of individual records or regional groupings of them. First I agree with Keith concerning the reality of a warmer MWP on average, we cannot leave the impression that there was no warmth when making the argument that it had lots of geographical and temporal diversity. We should make it clear the distinction between reconstructions and individual series. Concerning Tom's point about which series to include, I see the point of avoiding oversampling one region, but there is a problem as soon as we start bringinging indivifual series together to make a regional composite. We will undoubtedly be attacked for not showing all available data, but can come around this by stating yhat the purpose is not that of a reconstruction, rather to drive home the point of geograhy/temporal diversity through typical series. I would also concur that we should omit the Chesapeak series, if the data is Cronin's Mg/Ca data. There are too many uncertainties on salinity influences on this proxy, plus it is radiocarbon based. Both here and in the text the lack of low lat series needs to be pointed out. I think we should stick to the agreement from our conf.call and only show the 800-1300 AD interval. This will avoid confusion wrt the reconstruction fig. in the main chapter. Cheers Eystein 3149. 2005-07-19 10:06:56 ______________________________________________________ cc: , , "'Eystein Jansen'" , "'Gabi Hegerl'" , "'Keith Briffa'" date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 10:06:56 +0100 from: "Piers Forster" subject: RE: solar forcing over the recent millennia to: "'Jonathan Overpeck'" , "'V. Ramaswamy'" Hi all This a draft of our solar and volcanic sections, so you can see where we have got to and what we intend to cover - note it is still some way off being complete! There is also a section at the start on land-use changes prior to 1750 that Richard Betts, one of our LAs wanted the Paleo chapter to consider Note also the brief sections on the climate response to solar and volcanic forcings, these may also fit better elsewhere Cheers Piers Piers Forster (p.m.forster@rdg.ac.uk) T +44 118 378 6020; F +44 118 378 8905 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK -----Original Message----- From: Jonathan Overpeck [mailto:jto@u.arizona.edu] Sent: 18 July 2005 18:54 To: V. Ramaswamy Cc: p.m.forster@reading.ac.uk; cddhr@giss.nasa.gov; Eystein Jansen; Gabi Hegerl; Keith Briffa Subject: Re: solar forcing over the recent millennia Hi Ram and Piers - might be good to share, and also to share w/ David Rind, Keith Briffa and Gabi, since we need to make sure all our chapters are compatible on the issue of solar. I believe, last we talked, that you were playing pre-20th century aspects. I think David tries hard to keep in touch w/ Judith L on these issues too. That should help. We're happy to share our text w/ you too. Thanks again, peck >Hi Piers, > >Would it be best to send to Jonathan Chap. 2's latest version of the >solar - and also volcano? Note that these sections are still at the >draft-stage. > >Ram > > > >On Mon, 18 Jul 2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > >> Hi Fortunat et al. - thanks for this new >> material, and for the review of this new >> material. I think David Rind is up on the Chap 2 >> discussion of solar, and he's also a CA/liaison >> on Chap 9. Thus, he can help make sure we are >> consistent (best confirm, David). >> >> If we have it all right and it makes sense for >> Rob to be a CA, great (and thanks!). Rob - can >> you send a short cv to me and Eystein? >> >> thanks, peck >> >> >Hi, >> > >> >I have some text on solar for section 6.5.2. I >> >tried to be as brief as possible. >> > >> >I got also input from Rob Dorland for our chapter and I have summarized his >> >text, mainly in para 2.7.2.1, in the very >>last para of the attached document. >> > >> >(I have not yet checked his lower bound Maunder Minimum for the earlier >> >reconstruction, but will try to do so asap if >>this last paragraph survives. I >> >suspect the lower bound should be 0.25% reduction instead of 0.15%; I have >> >added Bard as additional reference which >>gives the high Maunder Minimum bound >> >of a 0.65% reduction in irradiance below the present mean level) >> > >> >KEITH AND DAVID could you check whether you >>agree with the writing. Bette has >> >already looked over it here at NCAR and found the expansion worthwhile. >> > >> >PECK AND EYSTEIN, can you put Rob van Dorland >>down as contributing author if >> >this expansion on solar forcing is welcomed. >> > >> >ROB: would you mind to send me the references >>for your text in endnote format? >> >(I usually use bibtex and are just in the transition). >> > >> >With best wishes, >> > >> >Fortunat >> > >> > >> > >> > >> >-- >> >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; >> > >> >Until November 23 >> > National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD >> > 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 >> > ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) >> > >> > home address: >> > 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 >> > ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) >> > >> >After November 24 >> > Climate and Environmental Physics >> > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern >> > Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 >> > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ >> > >> >Attachment converted: Macintosh >> >HD:joos_Ch06_FOD_6.5.2_s#8A3ED.doc (WDBN/) >> >(0008A3ED) >> >Attachment converted: Macintosh >> >HD:dorland_Ch02s7_ZOD_pr#8A3EE.doc (WDBN/) >> >(0008A3EE) >> >> >> -- >> Jonathan T. Overpeck >> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> Professor, Department of Geosciences >> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >> Mail and Fedex Address: >> >> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >> University of Arizona >> Tucson, AZ 85721 >> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\ch2topaleo19July.doc" 629. 2005-07-19 10:24:44 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 10:24:44 -0400 from: Tom Crowley subject: how about this? to: Eystein Jansen I just highlighted the mwp section - my time series starts later than 800 - a number of the records are truncated before 950. tc Eystein Jansen wrote: >Hi, >I think both Keith's and Tom's emails highlight some of the problems when going from hemispheric scale reconstructions to plots of individual records or regional groupings of them. First I agree with Keith concerning the reality of a warmer MWP on average, we cannot leave the impression that there was no warmth when making the argument that it had lots of geographical and temporal diversity. >We should make it clear the distinction between reconstructions and individual series. >Concerning Tom's point about which series to include, I see the point of avoiding oversampling one region, but there is a problem as soon as we start bringinging indivifual series together to make a regional composite. We will undoubtedly be attacked for not showing all available data, but can come around this by stating yhat the purpose is not that of a reconstruction, rather to drive home the point of geograhy/temporal diversity through typical series. I would also concur that we should omit the Chesapeak series, if the data is Cronin's Mg/Ca data. There are too many uncertainties on salinity influences on this proxy, plus it is radiocarbon based. Both here and in the text the lack of low lat series needs to be pointed out. >I think we should stick to the agreement from our conf.call and only show the 800-1300 AD interval. This will avoid confusion wrt the reconstruction fig. in the main chapter. >Cheers >Eystein > > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\mwp.singlets.jpg" 265. 2005-07-19 11:10:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 11:10:33 -0400 from: Tom Crowley subject: time for a decision to: Keith Briffa ok, Jonathan and Eystein, Keith and I have said about as much as we can, we are falling over each other trying to not to push our own work, its obvious neither will be offended etc etc just tell who what to do what..... as for contrib. author, I still think it is a good idea to try to keep the reviewers separate although now that I think of it I am not really separate so maybe it is a moot point tom Keith Briffa wrote: > Sorry > my message went off before I received Tom's latest - which reminded me > that I had not responded to the question re the short versus full > exposition of data. > This might be a bad idea - not letting people judge for themselves > whether the MWP scatter is greater than other periods (particularly in > the recent period). I strongly urge using all period (and with no > composite line through) - sorry have to dash , but will be back to > read other opinions first thing tomorrow > Keith > > At 15:24 19/07/2005, you wrote: > >> I just highlighted the mwp section - my time series starts later than >> 800 - a number of the records are truncated before 950. tc >> >> Eystein Jansen wrote: >> >>> Hi, >>> I think both Keith's and Tom's emails highlight some of the problems >>> when going from hemispheric scale reconstructions to plots of >>> individual records or regional groupings of them. First I agree with >>> Keith concerning the reality of a warmer MWP on average, we cannot >>> leave the impression that there was no warmth when making the >>> argument that it had lots of geographical and temporal diversity. >>> We should make it clear the distinction between reconstructions and >>> individual series. >>> Concerning Tom's point about which series to include, I see the >>> point of avoiding oversampling one region, but there is a problem as >>> soon as we start bringinging indivifual series together to make a >>> regional composite. We will undoubtedly be attacked for not showing >>> all available data, but can come around this by stating yhat the >>> purpose is not that of a reconstruction, rather to drive home the >>> point of geograhy/temporal diversity through typical series. I >>> would also concur that we should omit the Chesapeak series, if the >>> data is Cronin's Mg/Ca data. There are too many uncertainties on >>> salinity influences on this proxy, plus it is radiocarbon based. >>> Both here and in the text the lack of low lat series needs to be >>> pointed out. >>> I think we should stick to the agreement from our conf.call and only >>> show the 800-1300 AD interval. This will avoid confusion wrt the >>> reconstruction fig. in the main chapter. >>> Cheers >>> Eystein >>> >>> >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4961. 2005-07-19 14:55:44 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu, Eystein Jansen date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 14:55:44 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure to: "Ricardo Villalba" Hi SH gang - Thanks for keeping things moving Ricardo. Eystein and I just discussed this fig on the phone and would like to suggest the following: 1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact. 2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed) 3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty please...) to draft the final figure so that it matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is this ok, and do you have the data to do the job. If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send upon request? Many thanks, Peck and Eystein >Dear Keith and Ed, > >Please, find attached the new version of the SH figure for the IPCC. I have >now included the New Zealand record. All the records have been scaled to 4 >°C amplitude. Variability in the Tas record is reduced compared to New >Zealand and Patagonian records. The reference lines is the mean used for the >calibration period in each record, 15 C for New Zealand, 14.95 C for >Tasmania and 0 C for the Patagonian records (they show departures). Please, >let me know if you want to introduce some changes in the figure. The >opposite phase in the Patagonia-New Zealand records is so clear before 1850, >which is consistent with our previous TPI. For instance, in the instrumental >record the 1971 and 1976 are the coolest summer in northern Patagonian >during the past 70 years, but the warmest in New Zealand reconstruction!! >This out of phase relationship between regions in the Southern Hemisphere >points out to the difficulty of using few records to get a hemispheric >average. Cheers, > >Ricardo > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Jonathan Overpeck" >To: "edwardcook" >Cc: "Keith Briffa" <>; "Ricardo Villalba" ; >"Eystein Jansen" <> >Sent: Monday, July 18, 2005 1:09 PM >Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure > > >Thanks Ed - Ricardo, can you get the data from Henry? What do you think, >Keith? >Best, Peck > >>Given the nature of the SH and what Ricardo put >>together, I would keep the Australian and South >>Aftrican borehole records separate. Henry >>Pollack can provide them, I am sure. He gave an >>excellent talk at a meeting in Canberra that I >>recently participated in. >> >>Cheers, >> >>Ed >> >>P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction. >> >>JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM >>OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS >>BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL >>TEMPERATURES >> YEAR TEMP °C >> 900 13.751 >> 901 14.461 >> 902 13.236 >> 903 13.331 >> 904 13.483 >> 905 13.632 >> 906 12.959 >> 907 13.628 >> 908 13.372 >> 909 12.868 >> 910 13.244 >> 911 13.793 >> 912 14.048 >> 913 14.444 >> 914 13.095 >> 915 14.036 >> 916 13.215 >> 917 13.698 >> 918 13.570 >> 919 13.665 >> 920 13.871 >> 921 13.966 >> 922 14.762 >> 923 14.325 >> 924 14.077 >> 925 14.713 >> 926 14.081 >> 927 14.218 >> 928 13.793 >> 929 14.151 >> 930 14.985 >> 931 13.599 >> 932 14.663 >> 933 14.110 >> 934 14.968 >> 935 14.391 >> 936 15.484 >> 937 15.554 >> 938 14.977 >> 939 15.303 >> 940 15.179 >> 941 15.591 >> 942 14.737 >> 943 14.007 >> 944 14.865 >> 945 14.449 >> 946 14.350 >> 947 15.096 >> 948 15.257 >> 949 15.789 >> 950 15.303 >> 951 15.513 >> 952 16.111 >> 953 15.723 >> 954 15.459 >> 955 14.015 >> 956 13.083 >> 957 13.850 >> 958 14.069 >> 959 13.772 >> 960 14.873 >> 961 14.692 >> 962 14.923 >> 963 14.527 >> 964 15.034 >> 965 14.688 >> 966 14.486 >> 967 14.444 >> 968 14.436 >> 969 13.776 >> 970 13.809 >> 971 14.391 >> 972 13.487 >> 973 13.995 >> 974 14.061 >> 975 14.321 >> 976 14.882 >> 977 14.226 >> 978 14.977 >> 979 15.447 >> 980 14.424 >> 981 14.923 >> 982 14.180 >> 983 15.484 >> 984 13.487 >> 985 14.168 >> 986 14.176 > > 987 15.699 >> 988 15.187 >> 989 16.305 >> 990 14.845 >> 991 14.647 >> 992 15.765 >> 993 14.754 >> 994 14.271 >> 995 13.623 >> 996 14.300 >> 997 13.937 >> 998 14.040 >> 999 14.011 >> 1000 12.976 >> 1001 13.904 >> 1002 13.500 >> 1003 13.586 >> 1004 14.090 >> 1005 13.809 >> 1006 13.413 >> 1007 13.318 >> 1008 13.892 >> 1009 14.151 >> 1010 14.391 >> 1011 13.793 >> 1012 14.626 >> 1013 13.755 >> 1014 13.838 >> 1015 13.017 > > 1016 13.083 >> 1017 13.549 >> 1018 13.471 >> 1019 13.087 >> 1020 13.458 >> 1021 13.203 >> 1022 14.090 >> 1023 13.574 >> 1024 13.755 >> 1025 13.826 >> 1026 13.137 >> 1027 13.194 >> 1028 14.036 >> 1029 13.091 >> 1030 13.768 >> 1031 13.813 >> 1032 13.846 >> 1033 13.871 >> 1034 14.255 >> 1035 14.370 >> 1036 13.805 >> 1037 14.576 >> 1038 13.504 >> 1039 13.867 >> 1040 14.927 >> 1041 14.420 >> 1042 15.661 >> 1043 15.484 >> 1044 15.595 >> 1045 14.741 >> 1046 13.644 >> 1047 14.271 >> 1048 14.288 >> 1049 13.661 >> 1050 13.665 >> 1051 13.298 >> 1052 14.003 >> 1053 13.826 >> 1054 13.788 >> 1055 13.768 >> 1056 12.976 >> 1057 13.397 >> 1058 13.529 >> 1059 13.549 >> 1060 13.846 >> 1061 14.032 >> 1062 14.820 >> 1063 13.962 >> 1064 14.279 >> 1065 14.151 >> 1066 14.358 >> 1067 14.131 >> 1068 13.652 >> 1069 13.941 >> 1070 14.007 >> 1071 14.403 >> 1072 13.764 >> 1073 13.982 >> 1074 13.846 >> 1075 13.830 >> 1076 13.450 >> 1077 13.632 >> 1078 13.265 >> 1079 13.331 >> 1080 14.267 >> 1081 13.644 >> 1082 13.549 >> 1083 13.557 >> 1084 13.549 >> 1085 14.725 >> 1086 13.479 >> 1087 12.848 >> 1088 12.559 >> 1089 12.926 >> 1090 13.793 >> 1091 14.387 >> 1092 14.531 >> 1093 14.114 >> 1094 14.754 >> 1095 14.688 >> 1096 14.845 >> 1097 14.729 >> 1098 15.059 >> 1099 15.059 >> 1100 15.055 >> 1101 16.057 >> 1102 15.208 >> 1103 15.492 >> 1104 14.519 >> 1105 14.741 >> 1106 14.151 >> 1107 15.005 >> 1108 13.640 >> 1109 13.652 >> 1110 13.566 >> 1111 13.978 >> 1112 14.424 >> 1113 14.180 >> 1114 14.931 >> 1115 14.601 >> 1116 14.403 >> 1117 14.391 >> 1118 14.981 >> 1119 15.125 >> 1120 13.817 >> 1121 12.897 >> 1122 13.863 >> 1123 14.271 >> 1124 14.857 >> 1125 14.882 >> 1126 14.762 >> 1127 14.548 >> 1128 14.403 >> 1129 14.667 >> 1130 14.572 >> 1131 14.057 >> 1132 14.556 >> 1133 15.018 >> 1134 13.892 >> 1135 13.995 >> 1136 13.982 >> 1137 14.853 >> 1138 14.779 >> 1139 15.129 >> 1140 15.117 >> 1141 14.849 >> 1142 15.228 >> 1143 15.216 >> 1144 15.030 >> 1145 14.428 >> 1146 15.063 >> 1147 15.216 >> 1148 15.043 >> 1149 15.034 >> 1150 14.370 >> 1151 15.096 >> 1152 15.410 >> 1153 15.719 >> 1154 16.577 >> 1155 15.769 >> 1156 15.364 >> 1157 15.855 >> 1158 15.422 >> 1159 14.515 >> 1160 15.810 >> 1161 15.628 >> 1162 15.402 >> 1163 15.092 >> 1164 15.298 >> 1165 14.865 >> 1166 14.882 >> 1167 15.274 >> 1168 14.605 >> 1169 14.746 >> 1170 15.472 >> 1171 15.509 >> 1172 15.018 >> 1173 15.369 >> 1174 15.084 >> 1175 15.855 >> 1176 14.795 >> 1177 15.571 >> 1178 14.255 >> 1179 14.510 >> 1180 14.865 >> 1181 14.036 >> 1182 14.688 >> 1183 14.713 >> 1184 14.519 >> 1185 14.255 >> 1186 15.204 >> 1187 14.461 >> 1188 15.476 >> 1189 14.882 >> 1190 15.005 >> 1191 14.453 >> 1192 14.729 >> 1193 15.265 >> 1194 14.444 >> 1195 14.696 >> 1196 15.793 >> 1197 14.581 >> 1198 15.014 >> 1199 14.539 >> 1200 14.044 >> 1201 14.733 >> 1202 14.853 >> 1203 15.298 >> 1204 13.772 >> 1205 13.991 >> 1206 14.651 >> 1207 14.836 >> 1208 14.440 >> 1209 15.162 >> 1210 14.766 >> 1211 15.010 >> 1212 15.356 >> 1213 14.787 >> 1214 15.645 >> 1215 15.435 >> 1216 15.043 >> 1217 15.063 >> 1218 14.151 >> 1219 15.397 >> 1220 15.154 >> 1221 15.892 >> 1222 15.488 >> 1223 15.938 >> 1224 15.525 >> 1225 15.591 >> 1226 14.589 >> 1227 15.496 >> 1228 15.963 >> 1229 14.502 >> 1230 14.457 >> 1231 15.468 >> 1232 14.985 >> 1233 15.282 >> 1234 14.989 >> 1235 15.237 >> 1236 15.711 >> 1237 15.888 >> 1238 14.259 >> 1239 14.560 >> 1240 15.711 >> 1241 15.195 >> 1242 15.484 >> 1243 15.166 > > 1244 16.020 >> 1245 16.454 >> 1246 15.480 >> 1247 15.492 >> 1248 16.528 >> 1249 15.150 >> 1250 14.436 >> 1251 14.878 >> 1252 15.723 >> 1253 15.043 >> 1254 15.121 >> 1255 14.845 >> 1256 14.807 >> 1257 14.482 >> 1258 14.585 >> 1259 15.307 >> 1260 15.100 >> 1261 14.354 >> 1262 13.995 >> 1263 14.106 >> 1264 14.403 >> 1265 14.754 >> 1266 14.581 >> 1267 14.799 >> 1268 14.378 >> 1269 14.671 >> 1270 14.193 >> 1271 14.387 >> 1272 14.453 > > 1273 14.510 >> 1274 15.187 >> 1275 15.393 >> 1276 14.498 >> 1277 14.560 >> 1278 15.022 >> 1279 14.498 >> 1280 14.725 >> 1281 13.549 >> 1282 14.977 >> 1283 14.065 >> 1284 14.024 >> 1285 13.603 >> 1286 15.220 >> 1287 15.080 >> 1288 14.898 >> 1289 14.774 >> 1290 15.542 >> 1291 15.212 >> 1292 14.267 >> 1293 14.692 >> 1294 13.644 >> 1295 14.222 >> 1296 15.038 >> 1297 14.721 >> 1298 15.682 >> 1299 13.896 >> 1300 14.766 >> 1301 14.836 >> 1302 14.370 >> 1303 14.812 >> 1304 14.812 >> 1305 13.673 >> 1306 14.036 >> 1307 13.929 >> 1308 14.807 >> 1309 14.114 >> 1310 13.446 >> 1311 13.368 >> 1312 14.168 >> 1313 14.989 >> 1314 14.292 >> 1315 14.985 >> 1316 14.123 >> 1317 14.321 >> 1318 13.966 >> 1319 14.325 >> 1320 14.647 >> 1321 14.622 >> 1322 14.279 >> 1323 14.510 >> 1324 13.689 >> 1325 13.450 >> 1326 14.197 >> 1327 13.867 >> 1328 14.205 >> 1329 14.779 >> 1330 14.350 >> 1331 14.729 >> 1332 13.479 >> 1333 13.974 >> 1334 14.453 >> 1335 14.535 >> 1336 15.402 >> 1337 14.424 >> 1338 14.399 >> 1339 14.906 >> 1340 15.430 >> 1341 14.531 >> 1342 15.785 >> 1343 15.513 >> 1344 15.220 >> 1345 15.352 >> 1346 15.443 >> 1347 15.410 >> 1348 15.777 >> 1349 14.902 >> 1350 14.576 >> 1351 14.605 >> 1352 14.168 >> 1353 14.601 >> 1354 15.414 >> 1355 14.300 >> 1356 14.630 >> 1357 15.170 >> 1358 14.919 >> 1359 14.688 >> 1360 14.081 >> 1361 14.799 >> 1362 14.581 >> 1363 15.133 >> 1364 13.838 >> 1365 14.708 >> 1366 13.149 >> 1367 13.281 >> 1368 13.760 >> 1369 14.123 >> 1370 13.314 >> 1371 14.523 >> 1372 14.267 >> 1373 14.226 >> 1374 14.044 >> 1375 14.271 >> 1376 15.307 >> 1377 14.684 >> 1378 14.168 >> 1379 14.473 >> 1380 13.578 >> 1381 13.586 >> 1382 13.999 >> 1383 13.991 >> 1384 13.710 >> 1385 14.411 >> 1386 13.867 >> 1387 14.255 >> 1388 13.611 >> 1389 13.974 >> 1390 13.916 >> 1391 13.615 >> 1392 14.440 >> 1393 14.787 >> 1394 15.880 >> 1395 16.297 >> 1396 16.289 >> 1397 15.170 >> 1398 16.082 >> 1399 15.463 >> 1400 14.366 >> 1401 14.758 >> 1402 14.902 >> 1403 14.568 >> 1404 15.158 >> 1405 15.579 >> 1406 13.966 >> 1407 13.970 >> 1408 13.772 >> 1409 14.523 >> 1410 14.498 >> 1411 14.791 >> 1412 14.007 >> 1413 15.818 >> 1414 13.974 >> 1415 13.776 >> 1416 13.760 >> 1417 14.407 >> 1418 14.498 >> 1419 14.515 >> 1420 14.341 >> 1421 14.374 >> 1422 13.677 >> 1423 14.354 >> 1424 13.223 >> 1425 13.801 >> 1426 14.560 >> 1427 14.374 >> 1428 14.494 >> 1429 15.051 >> 1430 14.836 >> 1431 13.999 >> 1432 14.341 >> 1433 14.865 >> 1434 15.063 >> 1435 15.311 >> 1436 15.765 >> 1437 15.789 >> 1438 15.204 >> 1439 15.298 >> 1440 15.257 >> 1441 15.443 >> 1442 14.737 >> 1443 15.385 >> 1444 15.723 >> 1445 14.717 >> 1446 15.088 >> 1447 15.253 >> 1448 14.477 >> 1449 16.004 >> 1450 14.581 >> 1451 14.449 >> 1452 14.993 >> 1453 14.151 >> 1454 14.556 >> 1455 14.366 >> 1456 14.601 >> 1457 13.813 >> 1458 14.242 >> 1459 15.047 >> 1460 14.919 >> 1461 14.300 >> 1462 15.010 >> 1463 14.139 >> 1464 15.001 >> 1465 14.873 >> 1466 15.406 >> 1467 14.399 >> 1468 14.671 >> 1469 15.092 >> 1470 14.337 >> 1471 14.948 >> 1472 15.047 >> 1473 14.523 >> 1474 14.680 >> 1475 14.395 >> 1476 15.661 >> 1477 15.158 >> 1478 15.414 >> 1479 15.641 >> 1480 15.909 >> 1481 15.748 >> 1482 14.708 >> 1483 14.981 >> 1484 14.659 >> 1485 15.113 >> 1486 14.754 >> 1487 15.740 >> 1488 15.327 >> 1489 15.125 >> 1490 15.026 >> 1491 15.567 >> 1492 15.265 >> 1493 15.996 >> 1494 16.326 >> 1495 14.915 >> 1496 15.831 >> 1497 14.845 >> 1498 15.670 >> 1499 16.156 >> 1500 15.864 > > 1501 15.831 >> 1502 16.581 >> 1503 15.212 >> 1504 15.534 >> 1505 15.270 >> 1506 15.492 >> 1507 15.633 >> 1508 14.420 >> 1509 15.723 >> 1510 14.816 >> 1511 15.282 >> 1512 15.641 >> 1513 14.655 >> 1514 14.510 >> 1515 13.508 >> 1516 14.172 >> 1517 14.251 >> 1518 13.628 >> 1519 13.698 >> 1520 13.405 >> 1521 13.920 >> 1522 13.974 >> 1523 13.978 >> 1524 14.238 >> 1525 14.003 >> 1526 13.298 >> 1527 13.694 >> 1528 15.005 >> 1529 14.218 > > 1530 14.110 >> 1531 14.593 >> 1532 13.916 >> 1533 14.510 >> 1534 14.057 >> 1535 14.048 >> 1536 13.673 >> 1537 14.477 >> 1538 14.090 >> 1539 14.300 >> 1540 14.374 >> 1541 14.387 >> 1542 14.085 >> 1543 14.184 >> 1544 14.597 >> 1545 14.783 >> 1546 15.348 >> 1547 15.859 >> 1548 15.835 >> 1549 14.729 >> 1550 15.451 >> 1551 15.204 >> 1552 15.022 >> 1553 15.352 >> 1554 14.251 >> 1555 14.135 >> 1556 14.609 >> 1557 14.572 >> 1558 15.224 >> 1559 14.688 >> 1560 14.618 >> 1561 15.179 >> 1562 14.399 >> 1563 14.873 >> 1564 13.652 >> 1565 13.958 >> 1566 15.595 >> 1567 14.898 >> 1568 13.595 >> 1569 14.019 >> 1570 15.030 >> 1571 15.228 >> 1572 15.241 >> 1573 16.355 >> 1574 14.865 >> 1575 14.923 >> 1576 15.542 >> 1577 15.162 >> 1578 14.956 >> 1579 15.657 >> 1580 15.208 >> 1581 15.208 >> 1582 15.166 >> 1583 14.473 >> 1584 14.052 >> 1585 14.213 >> 1586 14.568 >> 1587 14.762 >> 1588 14.288 >> 1589 14.069 >> 1590 13.929 >> 1591 13.479 >> 1592 14.044 >> 1593 14.267 >> 1594 14.288 >> 1595 14.609 >> 1596 14.362 >> 1597 13.846 >> 1598 14.098 >> 1599 14.147 >> 1600 14.783 >> 1601 13.995 >> 1602 13.925 >> 1603 13.999 >> 1604 14.688 >> 1605 13.892 >> 1606 15.410 >> 1607 14.325 >> 1608 15.241 >> 1609 15.104 >> 1610 14.531 >> 1611 15.958 >> 1612 14.597 >> 1613 14.337 >> 1614 14.647 >> 1615 13.318 >> 1616 14.424 >> 1617 13.768 >> 1618 14.779 >> 1619 14.886 >> 1620 14.065 >> 1621 14.085 >> 1622 14.626 >> 1623 13.912 >> 1624 13.487 >> 1625 14.292 >> 1626 13.075 >> 1627 13.871 >> 1628 13.850 >> 1629 13.755 >> 1630 14.680 >> 1631 14.048 >> 1632 14.601 >> 1633 15.752 >> 1634 14.420 >> 1635 14.085 >> 1636 14.230 >> 1637 15.426 >> 1638 16.322 >> 1639 14.762 >> 1640 14.882 >> 1641 14.985 >> 1642 14.931 >> 1643 15.484 >> 1644 15.843 >> 1645 14.861 >> 1646 14.284 >> 1647 14.494 >> 1648 14.935 >> 1649 13.966 >> 1650 14.296 >> 1651 13.768 >> 1652 15.001 >> 1653 14.944 >> 1654 15.418 >> 1655 15.146 >> 1656 14.915 >> 1657 14.803 >> 1658 14.638 >> 1659 14.630 >> 1660 14.052 >> 1661 13.702 >> 1662 14.081 >> 1663 14.312 >> 1664 14.197 >> 1665 13.780 >> 1666 14.292 >> 1667 14.634 >> 1668 13.768 >> 1669 14.671 >> 1670 14.246 >> 1671 14.812 >> 1672 15.216 >> 1673 15.810 >> 1674 14.869 >> 1675 16.148 >> 1676 14.977 >> 1677 14.923 >> 1678 15.488 >> 1679 14.956 >> 1680 14.098 >> 1681 14.523 >> 1682 15.327 >> 1683 15.666 >> 1684 15.554 >> 1685 15.270 >> 1686 15.492 >> 1687 15.459 >> 1688 14.754 >> 1689 14.741 >> 1690 14.700 >> 1691 14.906 >> 1692 13.904 >> 1693 14.527 >> 1694 15.063 >> 1695 14.399 >> 1696 15.096 >> 1697 15.360 >> 1698 15.694 >> 1699 15.249 >> 1700 14.779 >> 1701 14.609 >> 1702 15.336 >> 1703 15.121 >> 1704 15.154 >> 1705 15.212 >> 1706 14.750 >> 1707 15.472 >> 1708 14.164 >> 1709 13.665 >> 1710 14.213 >> 1711 14.741 >> 1712 15.521 >> 1713 15.410 >> 1714 14.519 >> 1715 15.154 >> 1716 14.597 >> 1717 15.212 >> 1718 14.688 >> 1719 13.962 >> 1720 15.109 >> 1721 15.839 >> 1722 15.765 >> 1723 15.001 >> 1724 15.389 >> 1725 15.088 >> 1726 14.655 >> 1727 14.312 >> 1728 14.824 >> 1729 14.981 >> 1730 13.640 >> 1731 15.043 >> 1732 13.953 >> 1733 13.681 >> 1734 14.036 >> 1735 13.937 >> 1736 14.832 >> 1737 14.807 >> 1738 14.325 >> 1739 14.337 >> 1740 14.680 >> 1741 14.779 >> 1742 14.255 >> 1743 14.205 >> 1744 14.024 >> 1745 14.069 >> 1746 15.216 >> 1747 15.455 >> 1748 15.447 >> 1749 15.851 >> 1750 15.253 >> 1751 14.626 >> 1752 15.294 >> 1753 15.744 >> 1754 15.158 >> 1755 14.750 >> 1756 15.319 >> 1757 15.059 > > 1758 15.195 >> 1759 14.725 >> 1760 14.609 >> 1761 14.869 >> 1762 15.212 >> 1763 15.505 >> 1764 14.634 >> 1765 15.175 >> 1766 14.552 >> 1767 15.109 >> 1768 14.312 >> 1769 14.090 >> 1770 14.246 >> 1771 14.127 >> 1772 14.667 >> 1773 14.312 >> 1774 14.659 >> 1775 14.296 >> 1776 14.527 >> 1777 14.069 >> 1778 15.005 >> 1779 14.832 >> 1780 15.146 >> 1781 14.865 >> 1782 14.102 >> 1783 13.735 >> 1784 14.510 >> 1785 14.052 >> 1786 14.795 > > 1787 15.455 >> 1788 15.298 >> 1789 14.325 >> 1790 14.927 >> 1791 14.230 >> 1792 14.230 >> 1793 14.836 >> 1794 15.637 >> 1795 15.022 >> 1796 14.473 >> 1797 14.968 >> 1798 14.028 >> 1799 13.463 >> 1800 14.151 >> 1801 15.187 >> 1802 15.290 >> 1803 15.732 >> 1804 14.985 >> 1805 15.224 >> 1806 16.251 >> 1807 13.289 >> 1808 14.420 >> 1809 14.696 >> 1810 14.568 >> 1811 15.802 >> 1812 16.082 >> 1813 16.416 >> 1814 16.082 >> 1815 16.309 >> 1816 15.967 >> 1817 16.247 >> 1818 15.208 >> 1819 15.587 >> 1820 15.323 >> 1821 15.505 >> 1822 14.812 >> 1823 15.298 >> 1824 15.022 >> 1825 15.179 >> 1826 15.967 >> 1827 14.040 >> 1828 14.449 >> 1829 14.242 >> 1830 14.548 >> 1831 14.378 >> 1832 15.137 >> 1833 13.496 >> 1834 14.081 >> 1835 15.228 >> 1836 14.700 >> 1837 14.432 >> 1838 14.927 >> 1839 14.482 >> 1840 15.175 >> 1841 14.296 >> 1842 14.762 >> 1843 14.350 >> 1844 14.770 >> 1845 15.026 >> 1846 14.688 >> 1847 14.944 >> 1848 15.088 >> 1849 14.774 >> 1850 14.865 >> 1851 14.787 >> 1852 14.527 >> 1853 14.502 >> 1854 15.183 >> 1855 14.828 >> 1856 15.270 >> 1857 14.436 >> 1858 14.721 >> 1859 14.539 >> 1860 14.407 >> 1861 14.832 >> 1862 14.271 >> 1863 14.490 >> 1864 13.953 >> 1865 15.290 >> 1866 14.473 >> 1867 15.414 >> 1868 14.440 >> 1869 15.129 >> 1870 15.022 >> 1871 15.468 >> 1872 14.993 >> 1873 14.890 >> 1874 14.638 >> 1875 14.898 >> 1876 14.993 >> 1877 14.366 >> 1878 14.333 >> 1879 13.454 >> 1880 15.369 >> 1881 15.109 >> 1882 15.187 >> 1883 15.278 >> 1884 14.308 >> 1885 15.026 >> 1886 15.385 >> 1887 15.183 >> 1888 14.127 >> 1889 14.985 >> 1890 15.480 >> 1891 14.717 >> 1892 15.773 >> 1893 14.807 >> 1894 15.451 >> 1895 15.179 >> 1896 13.780 >> 1897 14.531 >> 1898 13.912 >> 1899 14.354 >> 1900 15.290 >> 1901 15.752 >> 1902 14.886 >> 1903 15.216 >> 1904 15.938 >> 1905 15.208 >> 1906 14.279 >> 1907 14.923 >> 1908 15.022 >> 1909 15.501 >> 1910 15.633 >> 1911 15.212 >> 1912 13.648 >> 1913 14.329 >> 1914 15.389 >> 1915 14.704 >> 1916 15.983 >> 1917 14.779 >> 1918 14.432 >> 1919 14.024 >> 1920 14.040 >> 1921 14.622 >> 1922 15.315 >> 1923 14.560 >> 1924 15.835 >> 1925 14.927 >> 1926 14.812 >> 1927 15.220 >> 1928 16.433 >> 1929 14.506 >> 1930 14.535 >> 1931 14.073 >> 1932 14.440 >> 1933 15.406 >> 1934 14.708 >> 1935 15.026 >> 1936 14.106 >> 1937 13.372 >> 1938 14.663 >> 1939 13.842 >> 1940 13.879 >> 1941 14.725 >> 1942 14.510 >> 1943 14.337 >> 1944 15.133 >> 1945 14.189 >> 1946 14.048 >> 1947 14.098 >> 1948 14.923 >> 1949 14.733 >> 1950 14.581 >> 1951 15.121 >> 1952 14.073 >> 1953 14.572 >> 1954 14.106 >> 1955 14.457 >> 1956 14.849 >> 1957 14.626 >> 1958 15.374 >> 1959 15.183 >> 1960 14.970 >> 1961 15.140 >> 1962 15.289 >> 1963 14.991 >> 1964 14.395 >> 1965 14.991 >> 1966 15.587 >> 1967 14.948 >> 1968 14.948 >> 1969 14.629 >> 1970 15.779 >> 1971 16.354 >> 1972 15.247 >> 1973 14.671 >> 1974 15.353 >> 1975 16.141 >> 1976 14.586 >> 1977 14.863 >> 1978 15.332 >> 1979 14.948 >> 1980 14.906 >> 1981 15.481 >> 1982 14.991 >> 1983 14.117 >> 1984 15.353 >> 1985 15.225 >> 1986 15.587 >> 1987 15.140 >> 1988 14.863 >> 1989 16.098 >> 1990 15.417 >> 1991 14.991 >> 1992 14.096 >> 1993 14.160 >> 1994 15.183 >> 1995 15.119 >> 1996 15.630 >> 1997 14.927 >> 1998 15.417 >> 1999 16.354 >> >>On Jul 17, 2005, at 10:40 PM, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >> >>>Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a >>>big fan of the Jones and Mann SH recon. It is >>>based on so little. On the other hand, it is in >>>the literature. So, I leave it up to you and > >>Keith to decide - perhaps Eystein can weigh in >>>too. >>> >>>I do, however, think it would be really helpful >>>to included the borehole data (see prev. >>>emails) - either as a single SH curve, or >>>(probably better) two regional curves >>>(Australia and S. Africa). Is there a reason >>>this is not a good idea? Can't complain about >>>snow bias down there... >>> >>>Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the >>>next draft and figure - complete w/ borehole I > >>hope. >>> >>>thx, Peck >>> >>>>Hi Keith, >>>> >>>>Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed >Cook >>>>returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall, he >>>>agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp data to >>>>include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month >ago. >>>> >>>>In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to the >Jones >>>>and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH. At that time we >have >>>>to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the >>>>regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include >Antarctica >>>>(Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with the >>>>hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at the >>>>bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain both >>>>hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at the >>>>bottom of my figure. Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein to >see >>>>the best way to proceed? Thanks, >>>> >>>>Ricardo >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>----- Original Message ----- >>>>From: "Keith Briffa" >>>>To: ; "Eystein Jansen" >>>>Cc: ; "Ed Cook" >>>>Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM >>>>Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure >>>> >>>>> Guys >>>>> still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am exploring >the >>>>MWP >>>>> Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to do >a >>>>> plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry - I am happy >to >>>>> very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the ENSO >>>>stuff ) >>>>> but my understanding is that this section is best done (to incorporate >>>>also >>>>> the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my Peck. >This >>>>> is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the regional >>>>> forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps not. >>>>> Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will incorporate >it >>>>but >>>>> that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the >North >>>>> Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section . >>>>> It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff and >>>>> involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the Figure >. In >>>>> meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing text >and >>>>bullets >>>>> Keith >>>>> >>>>> Keith >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>>> >>>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>>> >>>>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern >>>>hemisphere2.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0) >>> >>> >>>-- >>>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>> >>>Mail and Fedex Address: >>> >>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>University of Arizona >>>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >>================================== >>Dr. Edward R. Cook >>Doherty Senior Scholar and >>Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory >>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory >>Palisades, New York 10964 USA >>Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu >>Phone: 845-365-8618 >>Fax: 845-365-8152 >>================================== > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:SHregteml 1.JPG (JPEG/«IC») (0008ADC3) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2600. 2005-07-19 15:35:39 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith R. Briffa" , date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 15:35:39 -0300 from: "Ricardo Villalba" subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure to: "Jonathan Overpeck" , "Edward R. Cook" Dear Keith and Ed, Please, find attached the new version of the SH figure for the IPCC. I have now included the New Zealand record. All the records have been scaled to 4 °C amplitude. Variability in the Tas record is reduced compared to New Zealand and Patagonian records. The reference lines is the mean used for the calibration period in each record, 15 C for New Zealand, 14.95 C for Tasmania and 0 C for the Patagonian records (they show departures). Please, let me know if you want to introduce some changes in the figure. The opposite phase in the Patagonia-New Zealand records is so clear before 1850, which is consistent with our previous TPI. For instance, in the instrumental record the 1971 and 1976 are the coolest summer in northern Patagonian during the past 70 years, but the warmest in New Zealand reconstruction!! This out of phase relationship between regions in the Southern Hemisphere points out to the difficulty of using few records to get a hemispheric average. Cheers, Ricardo ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jonathan Overpeck" To: "edwardcook" Cc: "Keith Briffa" <>; "Ricardo Villalba" ; "Eystein Jansen" <> Sent: Monday, July 18, 2005 1:09 PM Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure Thanks Ed - Ricardo, can you get the data from Henry? What do you think, Keith? Best, Peck >Given the nature of the SH and what Ricardo put >together, I would keep the Australian and South >Aftrican borehole records separate. Henry >Pollack can provide them, I am sure. He gave an >excellent talk at a meeting in Canberra that I >recently participated in. > >Cheers, > >Ed > >P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction. > >JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM >OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS >BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL >TEMPERATURES > YEAR TEMP °C > 900 13.751 > 901 14.461 > 902 13.236 > 903 13.331 > 904 13.483 > 905 13.632 > 906 12.959 > 907 13.628 > 908 13.372 > 909 12.868 > 910 13.244 > 911 13.793 > 912 14.048 > 913 14.444 > 914 13.095 > 915 14.036 > 916 13.215 > 917 13.698 > 918 13.570 > 919 13.665 > 920 13.871 > 921 13.966 > 922 14.762 > 923 14.325 > 924 14.077 > 925 14.713 > 926 14.081 > 927 14.218 > 928 13.793 > 929 14.151 > 930 14.985 > 931 13.599 > 932 14.663 > 933 14.110 > 934 14.968 > 935 14.391 > 936 15.484 > 937 15.554 > 938 14.977 > 939 15.303 > 940 15.179 > 941 15.591 > 942 14.737 > 943 14.007 > 944 14.865 > 945 14.449 > 946 14.350 > 947 15.096 > 948 15.257 > 949 15.789 > 950 15.303 > 951 15.513 > 952 16.111 > 953 15.723 > 954 15.459 > 955 14.015 > 956 13.083 > 957 13.850 > 958 14.069 > 959 13.772 > 960 14.873 > 961 14.692 > 962 14.923 > 963 14.527 > 964 15.034 > 965 14.688 > 966 14.486 > 967 14.444 > 968 14.436 > 969 13.776 > 970 13.809 > 971 14.391 > 972 13.487 > 973 13.995 > 974 14.061 > 975 14.321 > 976 14.882 > 977 14.226 > 978 14.977 > 979 15.447 > 980 14.424 > 981 14.923 > 982 14.180 > 983 15.484 > 984 13.487 > 985 14.168 > 986 14.176 > 987 15.699 > 988 15.187 > 989 16.305 > 990 14.845 > 991 14.647 > 992 15.765 > 993 14.754 > 994 14.271 > 995 13.623 > 996 14.300 > 997 13.937 > 998 14.040 > 999 14.011 > 1000 12.976 > 1001 13.904 > 1002 13.500 > 1003 13.586 > 1004 14.090 > 1005 13.809 > 1006 13.413 > 1007 13.318 > 1008 13.892 > 1009 14.151 > 1010 14.391 > 1011 13.793 > 1012 14.626 > 1013 13.755 > 1014 13.838 > 1015 13.017 > 1016 13.083 > 1017 13.549 > 1018 13.471 > 1019 13.087 > 1020 13.458 > 1021 13.203 > 1022 14.090 > 1023 13.574 > 1024 13.755 > 1025 13.826 > 1026 13.137 > 1027 13.194 > 1028 14.036 > 1029 13.091 > 1030 13.768 > 1031 13.813 > 1032 13.846 > 1033 13.871 > 1034 14.255 > 1035 14.370 > 1036 13.805 > 1037 14.576 > 1038 13.504 > 1039 13.867 > 1040 14.927 > 1041 14.420 > 1042 15.661 > 1043 15.484 > 1044 15.595 > 1045 14.741 > 1046 13.644 > 1047 14.271 > 1048 14.288 > 1049 13.661 > 1050 13.665 > 1051 13.298 > 1052 14.003 > 1053 13.826 > 1054 13.788 > 1055 13.768 > 1056 12.976 > 1057 13.397 > 1058 13.529 > 1059 13.549 > 1060 13.846 > 1061 14.032 > 1062 14.820 > 1063 13.962 > 1064 14.279 > 1065 14.151 > 1066 14.358 > 1067 14.131 > 1068 13.652 > 1069 13.941 > 1070 14.007 > 1071 14.403 > 1072 13.764 > 1073 13.982 > 1074 13.846 > 1075 13.830 > 1076 13.450 > 1077 13.632 > 1078 13.265 > 1079 13.331 > 1080 14.267 > 1081 13.644 > 1082 13.549 > 1083 13.557 > 1084 13.549 > 1085 14.725 > 1086 13.479 > 1087 12.848 > 1088 12.559 > 1089 12.926 > 1090 13.793 > 1091 14.387 > 1092 14.531 > 1093 14.114 > 1094 14.754 > 1095 14.688 > 1096 14.845 > 1097 14.729 > 1098 15.059 > 1099 15.059 > 1100 15.055 > 1101 16.057 > 1102 15.208 > 1103 15.492 > 1104 14.519 > 1105 14.741 > 1106 14.151 > 1107 15.005 > 1108 13.640 > 1109 13.652 > 1110 13.566 > 1111 13.978 > 1112 14.424 > 1113 14.180 > 1114 14.931 > 1115 14.601 > 1116 14.403 > 1117 14.391 > 1118 14.981 > 1119 15.125 > 1120 13.817 > 1121 12.897 > 1122 13.863 > 1123 14.271 > 1124 14.857 > 1125 14.882 > 1126 14.762 > 1127 14.548 > 1128 14.403 > 1129 14.667 > 1130 14.572 > 1131 14.057 > 1132 14.556 > 1133 15.018 > 1134 13.892 > 1135 13.995 > 1136 13.982 > 1137 14.853 > 1138 14.779 > 1139 15.129 > 1140 15.117 > 1141 14.849 > 1142 15.228 > 1143 15.216 > 1144 15.030 > 1145 14.428 > 1146 15.063 > 1147 15.216 > 1148 15.043 > 1149 15.034 > 1150 14.370 > 1151 15.096 > 1152 15.410 > 1153 15.719 > 1154 16.577 > 1155 15.769 > 1156 15.364 > 1157 15.855 > 1158 15.422 > 1159 14.515 > 1160 15.810 > 1161 15.628 > 1162 15.402 > 1163 15.092 > 1164 15.298 > 1165 14.865 > 1166 14.882 > 1167 15.274 > 1168 14.605 > 1169 14.746 > 1170 15.472 > 1171 15.509 > 1172 15.018 > 1173 15.369 > 1174 15.084 > 1175 15.855 > 1176 14.795 > 1177 15.571 > 1178 14.255 > 1179 14.510 > 1180 14.865 > 1181 14.036 > 1182 14.688 > 1183 14.713 > 1184 14.519 > 1185 14.255 > 1186 15.204 > 1187 14.461 > 1188 15.476 > 1189 14.882 > 1190 15.005 > 1191 14.453 > 1192 14.729 > 1193 15.265 > 1194 14.444 > 1195 14.696 > 1196 15.793 > 1197 14.581 > 1198 15.014 > 1199 14.539 > 1200 14.044 > 1201 14.733 > 1202 14.853 > 1203 15.298 > 1204 13.772 > 1205 13.991 > 1206 14.651 > 1207 14.836 > 1208 14.440 > 1209 15.162 > 1210 14.766 > 1211 15.010 > 1212 15.356 > 1213 14.787 > 1214 15.645 > 1215 15.435 > 1216 15.043 > 1217 15.063 > 1218 14.151 > 1219 15.397 > 1220 15.154 > 1221 15.892 > 1222 15.488 > 1223 15.938 > 1224 15.525 > 1225 15.591 > 1226 14.589 > 1227 15.496 > 1228 15.963 > 1229 14.502 > 1230 14.457 > 1231 15.468 > 1232 14.985 > 1233 15.282 > 1234 14.989 > 1235 15.237 > 1236 15.711 > 1237 15.888 > 1238 14.259 > 1239 14.560 > 1240 15.711 > 1241 15.195 > 1242 15.484 > 1243 15.166 > 1244 16.020 > 1245 16.454 > 1246 15.480 > 1247 15.492 > 1248 16.528 > 1249 15.150 > 1250 14.436 > 1251 14.878 > 1252 15.723 > 1253 15.043 > 1254 15.121 > 1255 14.845 > 1256 14.807 > 1257 14.482 > 1258 14.585 > 1259 15.307 > 1260 15.100 > 1261 14.354 > 1262 13.995 > 1263 14.106 > 1264 14.403 > 1265 14.754 > 1266 14.581 > 1267 14.799 > 1268 14.378 > 1269 14.671 > 1270 14.193 > 1271 14.387 > 1272 14.453 > 1273 14.510 > 1274 15.187 > 1275 15.393 > 1276 14.498 > 1277 14.560 > 1278 15.022 > 1279 14.498 > 1280 14.725 > 1281 13.549 > 1282 14.977 > 1283 14.065 > 1284 14.024 > 1285 13.603 > 1286 15.220 > 1287 15.080 > 1288 14.898 > 1289 14.774 > 1290 15.542 > 1291 15.212 > 1292 14.267 > 1293 14.692 > 1294 13.644 > 1295 14.222 > 1296 15.038 > 1297 14.721 > 1298 15.682 > 1299 13.896 > 1300 14.766 > 1301 14.836 > 1302 14.370 > 1303 14.812 > 1304 14.812 > 1305 13.673 > 1306 14.036 > 1307 13.929 > 1308 14.807 > 1309 14.114 > 1310 13.446 > 1311 13.368 > 1312 14.168 > 1313 14.989 > 1314 14.292 > 1315 14.985 > 1316 14.123 > 1317 14.321 > 1318 13.966 > 1319 14.325 > 1320 14.647 > 1321 14.622 > 1322 14.279 > 1323 14.510 > 1324 13.689 > 1325 13.450 > 1326 14.197 > 1327 13.867 > 1328 14.205 > 1329 14.779 > 1330 14.350 > 1331 14.729 > 1332 13.479 > 1333 13.974 > 1334 14.453 > 1335 14.535 > 1336 15.402 > 1337 14.424 > 1338 14.399 > 1339 14.906 > 1340 15.430 > 1341 14.531 > 1342 15.785 > 1343 15.513 > 1344 15.220 > 1345 15.352 > 1346 15.443 > 1347 15.410 > 1348 15.777 > 1349 14.902 > 1350 14.576 > 1351 14.605 > 1352 14.168 > 1353 14.601 > 1354 15.414 > 1355 14.300 > 1356 14.630 > 1357 15.170 > 1358 14.919 > 1359 14.688 > 1360 14.081 > 1361 14.799 > 1362 14.581 > 1363 15.133 > 1364 13.838 > 1365 14.708 > 1366 13.149 > 1367 13.281 > 1368 13.760 > 1369 14.123 > 1370 13.314 > 1371 14.523 > 1372 14.267 > 1373 14.226 > 1374 14.044 > 1375 14.271 > 1376 15.307 > 1377 14.684 > 1378 14.168 > 1379 14.473 > 1380 13.578 > 1381 13.586 > 1382 13.999 > 1383 13.991 > 1384 13.710 > 1385 14.411 > 1386 13.867 > 1387 14.255 > 1388 13.611 > 1389 13.974 > 1390 13.916 > 1391 13.615 > 1392 14.440 > 1393 14.787 > 1394 15.880 > 1395 16.297 > 1396 16.289 > 1397 15.170 > 1398 16.082 > 1399 15.463 > 1400 14.366 > 1401 14.758 > 1402 14.902 > 1403 14.568 > 1404 15.158 > 1405 15.579 > 1406 13.966 > 1407 13.970 > 1408 13.772 > 1409 14.523 > 1410 14.498 > 1411 14.791 > 1412 14.007 > 1413 15.818 > 1414 13.974 > 1415 13.776 > 1416 13.760 > 1417 14.407 > 1418 14.498 > 1419 14.515 > 1420 14.341 > 1421 14.374 > 1422 13.677 > 1423 14.354 > 1424 13.223 > 1425 13.801 > 1426 14.560 > 1427 14.374 > 1428 14.494 > 1429 15.051 > 1430 14.836 > 1431 13.999 > 1432 14.341 > 1433 14.865 > 1434 15.063 > 1435 15.311 > 1436 15.765 > 1437 15.789 > 1438 15.204 > 1439 15.298 > 1440 15.257 > 1441 15.443 > 1442 14.737 > 1443 15.385 > 1444 15.723 > 1445 14.717 > 1446 15.088 > 1447 15.253 > 1448 14.477 > 1449 16.004 > 1450 14.581 > 1451 14.449 > 1452 14.993 > 1453 14.151 > 1454 14.556 > 1455 14.366 > 1456 14.601 > 1457 13.813 > 1458 14.242 > 1459 15.047 > 1460 14.919 > 1461 14.300 > 1462 15.010 > 1463 14.139 > 1464 15.001 > 1465 14.873 > 1466 15.406 > 1467 14.399 > 1468 14.671 > 1469 15.092 > 1470 14.337 > 1471 14.948 > 1472 15.047 > 1473 14.523 > 1474 14.680 > 1475 14.395 > 1476 15.661 > 1477 15.158 > 1478 15.414 > 1479 15.641 > 1480 15.909 > 1481 15.748 > 1482 14.708 > 1483 14.981 > 1484 14.659 > 1485 15.113 > 1486 14.754 > 1487 15.740 > 1488 15.327 > 1489 15.125 > 1490 15.026 > 1491 15.567 > 1492 15.265 > 1493 15.996 > 1494 16.326 > 1495 14.915 > 1496 15.831 > 1497 14.845 > 1498 15.670 > 1499 16.156 > 1500 15.864 > 1501 15.831 > 1502 16.581 > 1503 15.212 > 1504 15.534 > 1505 15.270 > 1506 15.492 > 1507 15.633 > 1508 14.420 > 1509 15.723 > 1510 14.816 > 1511 15.282 > 1512 15.641 > 1513 14.655 > 1514 14.510 > 1515 13.508 > 1516 14.172 > 1517 14.251 > 1518 13.628 > 1519 13.698 > 1520 13.405 > 1521 13.920 > 1522 13.974 > 1523 13.978 > 1524 14.238 > 1525 14.003 > 1526 13.298 > 1527 13.694 > 1528 15.005 > 1529 14.218 > 1530 14.110 > 1531 14.593 > 1532 13.916 > 1533 14.510 > 1534 14.057 > 1535 14.048 > 1536 13.673 > 1537 14.477 > 1538 14.090 > 1539 14.300 > 1540 14.374 > 1541 14.387 > 1542 14.085 > 1543 14.184 > 1544 14.597 > 1545 14.783 > 1546 15.348 > 1547 15.859 > 1548 15.835 > 1549 14.729 > 1550 15.451 > 1551 15.204 > 1552 15.022 > 1553 15.352 > 1554 14.251 > 1555 14.135 > 1556 14.609 > 1557 14.572 > 1558 15.224 > 1559 14.688 > 1560 14.618 > 1561 15.179 > 1562 14.399 > 1563 14.873 > 1564 13.652 > 1565 13.958 > 1566 15.595 > 1567 14.898 > 1568 13.595 > 1569 14.019 > 1570 15.030 > 1571 15.228 > 1572 15.241 > 1573 16.355 > 1574 14.865 > 1575 14.923 > 1576 15.542 > 1577 15.162 > 1578 14.956 > 1579 15.657 > 1580 15.208 > 1581 15.208 > 1582 15.166 > 1583 14.473 > 1584 14.052 > 1585 14.213 > 1586 14.568 > 1587 14.762 > 1588 14.288 > 1589 14.069 > 1590 13.929 > 1591 13.479 > 1592 14.044 > 1593 14.267 > 1594 14.288 > 1595 14.609 > 1596 14.362 > 1597 13.846 > 1598 14.098 > 1599 14.147 > 1600 14.783 > 1601 13.995 > 1602 13.925 > 1603 13.999 > 1604 14.688 > 1605 13.892 > 1606 15.410 > 1607 14.325 > 1608 15.241 > 1609 15.104 > 1610 14.531 > 1611 15.958 > 1612 14.597 > 1613 14.337 > 1614 14.647 > 1615 13.318 > 1616 14.424 > 1617 13.768 > 1618 14.779 > 1619 14.886 > 1620 14.065 > 1621 14.085 > 1622 14.626 > 1623 13.912 > 1624 13.487 > 1625 14.292 > 1626 13.075 > 1627 13.871 > 1628 13.850 > 1629 13.755 > 1630 14.680 > 1631 14.048 > 1632 14.601 > 1633 15.752 > 1634 14.420 > 1635 14.085 > 1636 14.230 > 1637 15.426 > 1638 16.322 > 1639 14.762 > 1640 14.882 > 1641 14.985 > 1642 14.931 > 1643 15.484 > 1644 15.843 > 1645 14.861 > 1646 14.284 > 1647 14.494 > 1648 14.935 > 1649 13.966 > 1650 14.296 > 1651 13.768 > 1652 15.001 > 1653 14.944 > 1654 15.418 > 1655 15.146 > 1656 14.915 > 1657 14.803 > 1658 14.638 > 1659 14.630 > 1660 14.052 > 1661 13.702 > 1662 14.081 > 1663 14.312 > 1664 14.197 > 1665 13.780 > 1666 14.292 > 1667 14.634 > 1668 13.768 > 1669 14.671 > 1670 14.246 > 1671 14.812 > 1672 15.216 > 1673 15.810 > 1674 14.869 > 1675 16.148 > 1676 14.977 > 1677 14.923 > 1678 15.488 > 1679 14.956 > 1680 14.098 > 1681 14.523 > 1682 15.327 > 1683 15.666 > 1684 15.554 > 1685 15.270 > 1686 15.492 > 1687 15.459 > 1688 14.754 > 1689 14.741 > 1690 14.700 > 1691 14.906 > 1692 13.904 > 1693 14.527 > 1694 15.063 > 1695 14.399 > 1696 15.096 > 1697 15.360 > 1698 15.694 > 1699 15.249 > 1700 14.779 > 1701 14.609 > 1702 15.336 > 1703 15.121 > 1704 15.154 > 1705 15.212 > 1706 14.750 > 1707 15.472 > 1708 14.164 > 1709 13.665 > 1710 14.213 > 1711 14.741 > 1712 15.521 > 1713 15.410 > 1714 14.519 > 1715 15.154 > 1716 14.597 > 1717 15.212 > 1718 14.688 > 1719 13.962 > 1720 15.109 > 1721 15.839 > 1722 15.765 > 1723 15.001 > 1724 15.389 > 1725 15.088 > 1726 14.655 > 1727 14.312 > 1728 14.824 > 1729 14.981 > 1730 13.640 > 1731 15.043 > 1732 13.953 > 1733 13.681 > 1734 14.036 > 1735 13.937 > 1736 14.832 > 1737 14.807 > 1738 14.325 > 1739 14.337 > 1740 14.680 > 1741 14.779 > 1742 14.255 > 1743 14.205 > 1744 14.024 > 1745 14.069 > 1746 15.216 > 1747 15.455 > 1748 15.447 > 1749 15.851 > 1750 15.253 > 1751 14.626 > 1752 15.294 > 1753 15.744 > 1754 15.158 > 1755 14.750 > 1756 15.319 > 1757 15.059 > 1758 15.195 > 1759 14.725 > 1760 14.609 > 1761 14.869 > 1762 15.212 > 1763 15.505 > 1764 14.634 > 1765 15.175 > 1766 14.552 > 1767 15.109 > 1768 14.312 > 1769 14.090 > 1770 14.246 > 1771 14.127 > 1772 14.667 > 1773 14.312 > 1774 14.659 > 1775 14.296 > 1776 14.527 > 1777 14.069 > 1778 15.005 > 1779 14.832 > 1780 15.146 > 1781 14.865 > 1782 14.102 > 1783 13.735 > 1784 14.510 > 1785 14.052 > 1786 14.795 > 1787 15.455 > 1788 15.298 > 1789 14.325 > 1790 14.927 > 1791 14.230 > 1792 14.230 > 1793 14.836 > 1794 15.637 > 1795 15.022 > 1796 14.473 > 1797 14.968 > 1798 14.028 > 1799 13.463 > 1800 14.151 > 1801 15.187 > 1802 15.290 > 1803 15.732 > 1804 14.985 > 1805 15.224 > 1806 16.251 > 1807 13.289 > 1808 14.420 > 1809 14.696 > 1810 14.568 > 1811 15.802 > 1812 16.082 > 1813 16.416 > 1814 16.082 > 1815 16.309 > 1816 15.967 > 1817 16.247 > 1818 15.208 > 1819 15.587 > 1820 15.323 > 1821 15.505 > 1822 14.812 > 1823 15.298 > 1824 15.022 > 1825 15.179 > 1826 15.967 > 1827 14.040 > 1828 14.449 > 1829 14.242 > 1830 14.548 > 1831 14.378 > 1832 15.137 > 1833 13.496 > 1834 14.081 > 1835 15.228 > 1836 14.700 > 1837 14.432 > 1838 14.927 > 1839 14.482 > 1840 15.175 > 1841 14.296 > 1842 14.762 > 1843 14.350 > 1844 14.770 > 1845 15.026 > 1846 14.688 > 1847 14.944 > 1848 15.088 > 1849 14.774 > 1850 14.865 > 1851 14.787 > 1852 14.527 > 1853 14.502 > 1854 15.183 > 1855 14.828 > 1856 15.270 > 1857 14.436 > 1858 14.721 > 1859 14.539 > 1860 14.407 > 1861 14.832 > 1862 14.271 > 1863 14.490 > 1864 13.953 > 1865 15.290 > 1866 14.473 > 1867 15.414 > 1868 14.440 > 1869 15.129 > 1870 15.022 > 1871 15.468 > 1872 14.993 > 1873 14.890 > 1874 14.638 > 1875 14.898 > 1876 14.993 > 1877 14.366 > 1878 14.333 > 1879 13.454 > 1880 15.369 > 1881 15.109 > 1882 15.187 > 1883 15.278 > 1884 14.308 > 1885 15.026 > 1886 15.385 > 1887 15.183 > 1888 14.127 > 1889 14.985 > 1890 15.480 > 1891 14.717 > 1892 15.773 > 1893 14.807 > 1894 15.451 > 1895 15.179 > 1896 13.780 > 1897 14.531 > 1898 13.912 > 1899 14.354 > 1900 15.290 > 1901 15.752 > 1902 14.886 > 1903 15.216 > 1904 15.938 > 1905 15.208 > 1906 14.279 > 1907 14.923 > 1908 15.022 > 1909 15.501 > 1910 15.633 > 1911 15.212 > 1912 13.648 > 1913 14.329 > 1914 15.389 > 1915 14.704 > 1916 15.983 > 1917 14.779 > 1918 14.432 > 1919 14.024 > 1920 14.040 > 1921 14.622 > 1922 15.315 > 1923 14.560 > 1924 15.835 > 1925 14.927 > 1926 14.812 > 1927 15.220 > 1928 16.433 > 1929 14.506 > 1930 14.535 > 1931 14.073 > 1932 14.440 > 1933 15.406 > 1934 14.708 > 1935 15.026 > 1936 14.106 > 1937 13.372 > 1938 14.663 > 1939 13.842 > 1940 13.879 > 1941 14.725 > 1942 14.510 > 1943 14.337 > 1944 15.133 > 1945 14.189 > 1946 14.048 > 1947 14.098 > 1948 14.923 > 1949 14.733 > 1950 14.581 > 1951 15.121 > 1952 14.073 > 1953 14.572 > 1954 14.106 > 1955 14.457 > 1956 14.849 > 1957 14.626 > 1958 15.374 > 1959 15.183 > 1960 14.970 > 1961 15.140 > 1962 15.289 > 1963 14.991 > 1964 14.395 > 1965 14.991 > 1966 15.587 > 1967 14.948 > 1968 14.948 > 1969 14.629 > 1970 15.779 > 1971 16.354 > 1972 15.247 > 1973 14.671 > 1974 15.353 > 1975 16.141 > 1976 14.586 > 1977 14.863 > 1978 15.332 > 1979 14.948 > 1980 14.906 > 1981 15.481 > 1982 14.991 > 1983 14.117 > 1984 15.353 > 1985 15.225 > 1986 15.587 > 1987 15.140 > 1988 14.863 > 1989 16.098 > 1990 15.417 > 1991 14.991 > 1992 14.096 > 1993 14.160 > 1994 15.183 > 1995 15.119 > 1996 15.630 > 1997 14.927 > 1998 15.417 > 1999 16.354 > >On Jul 17, 2005, at 10:40 PM, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > >>Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a >>big fan of the Jones and Mann SH recon. It is >>based on so little. On the other hand, it is in >>the literature. So, I leave it up to you and >>Keith to decide - perhaps Eystein can weigh in >>too. >> >>I do, however, think it would be really helpful >>to included the borehole data (see prev. >>emails) - either as a single SH curve, or >>(probably better) two regional curves >>(Australia and S. Africa). Is there a reason >>this is not a good idea? Can't complain about >>snow bias down there... >> >>Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the >>next draft and figure - complete w/ borehole I >>hope. >> >>thx, Peck >> >>>Hi Keith, >>> >>>Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed Cook >>>returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall, he >>>agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp data to >>>include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month ago. >>> >>>In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to the Jones >>>and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH. At that time we have >>>to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the >>>regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include Antarctica >>>(Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with the >>>hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at the >>>bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain both >>>hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at the >>>bottom of my figure. Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein to see >>>the best way to proceed? Thanks, >>> >>>Ricardo >>> >>> >>> >>>----- Original Message ----- >>>From: "Keith Briffa" >>>To: ; "Eystein Jansen" >>>Cc: ; "Ed Cook" >>>Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM >>>Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure >>> >>>> Guys >>>> still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am exploring the >>>MWP >>>> Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to do a >>>> plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry - I am happy to >>>> very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the ENSO >>>stuff ) >>>> but my understanding is that this section is best done (to incorporate >>>also >>>> the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my Peck. This >>>> is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the regional >>>> forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps not. >>>> Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will incorporate it >>>but >>>> that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the North >>>> Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section . >>>> It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff and >>>> involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the Figure . In >>>> meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing text and >>>bullets >>>> Keith >>>> >>>> Keith >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>> University of East Anglia >>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>> >>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>> >>>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>> >>>> >>> >>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern >>>hemisphere2.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0) >> >> >>-- >>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >>Mail and Fedex Address: >> >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>University of Arizona >>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> >================================== >Dr. Edward R. Cook >Doherty Senior Scholar and >Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory >Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory >Palisades, New York 10964 USA >Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu >Phone: 845-365-8618 >Fax: 845-365-8152 >================================== -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SHregteml2.JPG" 1870. 2005-07-19 15:36:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 15:36:06 -0600 (MDT) from: Bette Otto-Bliesner subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on exec bullets to: Stefan Rahmstorf 5. I think we need to provide the temperature range for LGM PMIP-2 simulations, because they all use the same boundary conditions and forcings and provide another measure of climate sensitivity for the models in Chapters 8 and 10. The response, globally and regionally, for LGM is quite dependent on the boundary conditions and forcings used. PMIP-2 simulations with dynamic vegetation are not yet available and changes to atmospheric aerosols are not included. Both forcings could result in some additional cooling, especially regionally, but also globally as you point out. Crucifix et al. using the slab version of HadCM3 (and not using PMIP-2 specifications) put the global-average contribution of vegetation changes at 0.6C, but they did not use the PMIP-2 specifications. Yes, Kim et al. did get 10C cooling in their LGM simulation but they did not include vegetation or aerosols changes so we cannot attribute their large cooling to full glacial cooling. Their run is truly an outlier for the forcings they did apply; they did not submit a new LGM simulation for PMIP-2. I suggest we reword into two bullets to clarify as follows: * The Last Glacial Maximum featured reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, increased atmospheric aerosols, and altered land ice and vegetation. In a coordinated international multi-model experiment (PMIP-2), models simulate a change in global mean surface air temperature change between the Last Glacial Maximum and the current interglacial of 3.1 to 5.1C when considering greenhouse forcing and continental ice changes (radiative forcing change of -4 to 7 W m-2). For full glacial conditions, models simulate even greater cooling of XXC. * Global cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum is comparable in magnitude with the projected global mean warming over the 21st century, although the warming after the Last Glacial Maximum happened over thousands of years rather than the 100 years expected in the future. 9. A paper submitted by the CAPE LIG members finds summer temperature anomalies 5C above present over most Arctic lands for the Eemian. Arctic warming of 6-8C at the end of this century is on the high end for the IPCCAR4 models. Chapman and Walsh's paper on the IPCC AR4 web site link for the Honolulu meeting gives projected temperature changes for 60-90 N of 1-5.5C for SRESB1, 2.5-7C for SRESA1B, and 4-9C for SRESA2 by the end of the 21st century. The 14-GCM mean map for the middle of the road SRESA1B gives cooling of 3-6C for 2070-2089. Bette ______________________________________________ Bette L. Otto-Bliesner Climate Change Research National Center for Atmospheric Research 1850 Table Mesa Drive / P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, Colorado 80307 Phone: 303-497-1723 Fax: 303-497-1348 Email: ottobli@ncar.ucar.edu ______________________________________________ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3167. 2005-07-19 15:38:31 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Tue Jul 19 15:38:31 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: thoughts and Figure for MWP box to: Tom Crowley , Jonathan Overpeck Tom et al thanks for remarks - in response to Tom's questions At 18:23 18/07/2005, Tom Crowley wrote: a few comments - 1) are you trying to choose between my way of presenting things and your way - ie, w w/out composite? Yes 2) with your data, do they all go through from beginning to end? pretty much - and have been standardised over the maximum period for each (not necessarily the best way?) 3) why include chesapeake, which is likely a salinity record? Because Moberg used it in their latest reconstruction - I agree that I would not use it because of the dubious temperature signal (salinity effect and no local replication) and poor dating control (and I do not like the way the Moberg method effectively over weights the low-frequency predictor series in their analysis). 4) some of your data are from virtually the same site - Mangazeja and yamal are both w. siberia - I composited data available from multiple sites to produce one time series, which is equally counted against the other regions, which might (greenland, w.U.S., e. Asia) or might not have multiple records in them Just to reiterate - I understood after the group chat with Susan S. in Beijing , that we were being asked to try to produce a "cloud" diagram including as many of "original" predictor series ,from all the reconstructions, to see if it provided an "obvious" picture of the unprecedented warming over the last millennium or so. Tim and I are in no way trying t produce a different Figure for the sake of producing a different Figure . In practice this is hard to do (because some records are sensible "local" composites already, and how far do you go in showing all input data? The problem of what and how to composite is tricky - and no obviously "correct" way is apparent. Having said this , Tom's way is fine with me (provided the composites are robust) and we get general agreement. Am happy to go with Tom's Figure , or version that incorporates as many records as possible - but as we have said - without the composite or temperature scaled add ons. 5) I am not sure whether it is wise to add me to the CA list, just because the reviewer is supposed to be impartial and a CA loses that appearance of impartiality if he has now been included as a CA - may want to check with Susan S. on this one to be sure - still happy to provide advice My own position on this is that you are an "unofficial" referee, who has (and still is) making a significant contribution - I see no conflict 6) I am happy to go in either direction - include or not include my figure - all I need are specific directions as to what to do, as CLAs you people need to decide, and then just tell me what or what not to do Agree - CLAs please rule on the individual record/composite question - I am very happy to go with Tom's Figure. We did ours because we were asked to. 7) I am a little unhappy with the emphasis on hemispheric warmth - lets face it, almost all of the long records are from 30-90N - the question is: how representative is 30-90N to the rest of the world? for the 20th c. one can do correlations with the instrumental record, but co2 has almost certainly increased the correlation scale beyond what it was preanthropogenic. Absolutely agree , and hope this comes over in text (and bullets) - if not needs strengthening (note David R's comments). you could correlate with quelcaya - not sure how many other records there are that are annual resolution - in the tropics I have produced a tropical composite (corals + Quelc.) but it only goes back to ~1780 - corals just don't live v long - in that interval at least the agreement is satisfactory with the mid latitude reconstruction but there is only 100 years extra of independent information beyond the instrumental record.. We have gone round in circles over this , but understand consensus to be that Quelc. not a clean temperature record. Agree corals would be better longer (the new coral-based reconstruction by Rob Wilson et al goes back to 1700 and shows unprecedented tropical warming . Along with the text from Julie we can not go much further, but the importance of extending the tropical (and SH records needs to be very clear) .THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSEDAS A GENERAL ISSUE SOMEWHERE (SHORTLY) IN YOUR DOC Really hope it is already - but advise if you think not tom Thanks for this - lets take lead from J and E now (also can you advise on state of play with the Hegerl et al manuscript?) thanks Keith Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Keith, Eystein and Tom: See below (BOLD) for my comments. Thanks for moving this forward and making sure we do it right (i.e., without any bias, or perception of bias). Dear Peck, Eystein and Tom At this point we thought it was important to review where we think we are with the MWP Figure. First, we have no objection to a Figure . Our only concerns have been that we should 1/... be clear what we wish this Figure to illustrate (in the specific context of the MWP box) - note that this is very different from trying to produce a Figure in such a way as to bias what it says (I am not suggesting that we are, but we have to guard against any later charge that we did this). We say this because there are intonations in some of Peck's previous messages that he wishes to "nail" the MWP - i.e. this could be interpreted as trying to say there was no such thing, and SORRY TO SCARE YOU. I **ABSOLUTELY** AGREE THAT WE MUST AVOID ANY BIAS OR PERCEPTION OF BIAS. MY COMMENT ON "NAILING" WAS MADE TO MEAN THAT ININFORMED PEOPLE KEEPING COMING BACK TO THE MWP, AND DESCRIBING IT FOR WHAT I BELIEVE IT WASN'T. OUR JOB IS TO MAKE IT CLEAR WHAT IT WAS WITHIN THE LIMITS OF THE DATA. IF THE DATA ARE NOT CLEAR, THEN WE HAVE TO BE NOT CLEAR. THAT SAID, I THINK TOM'S FIGURE CAPTURED WHAT I HAVE SENSED IS THE MWP FOR A LONG TIME, AND BASED ON OTHER SOURCES OF INFO - INCLUDING KEITH'S PROSE. THE IDEA OF A FIGURE, IS THAT FIGURES CAN BE MORE COMPELLING AND CONNECT BETTER THAN TEXT. ALSO, THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO LOOK AT THE MWP, AND AS LONG AS WE DON'T INTRODUCE BIAS OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT WILL DILUTE THE MESSAGE IN THE END, THE IDEA IS TO SHOW THE MWP IN MORE WAYS THAN TWO (THAT IS, THE EXISTING FIGS IN THE TEXT THAT KEITH AND TIM MADE). 2/ ...agree that we have done this in the best way. The truth is that there IS a period of relative warmth around the end of the 1st and start of the 2nd millennium C.E. , but that there are much fewer data to base this conclusion on (and hence the uncertainty around even our multiple calibrated multi-proxy reconstructions are wide). The geographical spread of data also impart a northern (and land) bias in our early proxy data. NEED TO BE CLEAR ABOUT THIS BIAS IN THE CAPTION AND BOX TEXT My understanding of Tom's rationale with the Figure is that we should show how, because the timing of maximum pre-20th century warmth is different in different records, the magnitude of the warmest period (for the Hemisphere , or globe, as a whole) is less than the recently observed warmth. YES, BUT IN A WAY THAT SAYS "LOOK, HERE ARE THE ACTUAL REGIONAL CURVES - CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF" INSTEAD OF JUST SAYING (IN A SCIENTIFICALLY MORE STANDARD MANNER - HERE ARE THE VARIOUS, MOST ROBUST, LARGE AREA RECONSTRUCTIONS. IN MY MIND, THE LATTER (KEITH/TIM FIGS IN THE MAIN TEXT) WILL BE THE MOST APPEALING/CONVINCING TO PALEOCLIMATE SCIENTISTS, BUT TOM'S MIGHT HELP THERE, AND CERTAINLY WITH NON-PALEO SCIENTISTS AND POLICY FOLKS. MIGHT HELP... IF IT DOESN'T NOTHING LOST, BUT IF IT COULD HURT CONVEYING UNDERSTANDING, THEN ITS BAD TO USE THE NEW FIGURE. The reconstructions we plot in Chapter 6 already express the mean Hemispheric warmth (after various selection and scaling of data), and so the additional information that the MWP box figure should show must relate to the scatter of the proxy data. There seems to be a consensus that this is best done by showing individual records , and we are happy to agree. What we worry very much about, however, is that we should not produce a Figure that then conflicts with the picture of proxy evidence for Hemispheric mean warmth as a whole,shown in the main Chapter Figure. By showing a composite (as Tom has done) and scaling against another (30-90degrees N) temperature record - this is just what is done. ABSOLUTELY RIGHT - CAN'T HAVE CONFLICT. As we promised, Tim has produced a similar Figure, using the same series plus a few extras, but omitting the composite mean and the scaling against instrumental temperatures. The idea was to include as many of the original input series (to the various reconstructions) as we could - though avoiding conflicting use of different versions of the same data. The precise selection of records will have to be agreed and, presumably, based on some clear, objective criteria that we would need to justify (this will not be straight forward). This, along with Tom's plot (forwarded by Peck) is in the attachment. We would like to get your opinion now, and especially Tom's, on the points regarding the composite and scaling. We would be in favour of just showing the series - but do they make the point (and emphasise the message of the text in the box)? Or does the scatter of the various series as plotted, dilute the message about the strength of 20th century mean warming (note the apparently greater scatter in the 20th century in our figure than in Tom's)? Can you all chip in here please. best wishes WHAT ABOUT THE IDEA THAT WE ONLY SHOW THE SERIES FOR THE MWP, SINCE THE COMPARISON TO THE 20TH CENTURY IS DONE WELL (AND BEST?) IN THE TEXT FIGS (WHICH I'M ATTACHING JUST IN CASE TOM DOESN'T HAVE, ALONG WITH THE TEXT - IF YOU HAVE TIME, TOM, PLEASE READ COMMENT ON ANYTHING YOU WISH, BUT CERTAINLY THE LAST 2000 YEARS BIT - ASSUME YOU'LL BE DOING THIS AT THE REVIEW STAGE ANYHOW...) ANOTHER THING THAT IS A REAL ISSUE IS SHOWING SOME OF THE TREE-RING DATA FOR THE PERIOD AFTER 1950. BASED ON THE LITERATURE, WE KNOW THESE ARE BIASED - RIGHT? SO SHOULD WE SAY THAT'S THE REASON THEY ARE NOT SHOWN? OF COURSE, IF WE ONLY PLOT THE FIG FROM CA 800 TO 1400 AD, IT WOULD DO WHAT WE WANT, FOCUS ON THE MWP ONLY - THE TOPIC OF THE BOX - AND SHOW THAT THERE WERE NOT ANY PERIODS WHEN ALL THE RECORDS ALL SHOWED WARMTH - I.E., OF THE KIND WE'RE EXPERIENCING NOW. TWO CENTS WORTH Keith and Tim P.S. We agreed in Beijing that we should definitely ask Tom to be a CA . TRUE - BUT HAS ANYONE CONFIRMED W/ TOM. TOM, YOU OK W/ THIS? THANKS - A GREAT DISCUSSION, AND LETS SAY THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THIS FIGURE UNTIL WE ALL ARE COMFORTABLE WITH WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE END. BEST, PECK -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:mwpbox_figures.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0008A8AE) -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 512. 2005-07-19 15:48:56 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 19 Jul 2005 15:48:56 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on exec bullets to: Eystein Jansen , wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu, Jonathan Overpeck Hi all, here is some comments on the summary bullet points. I number the bullets in sequence of appearance. 1. Need to improve on how we phrase "time-average climates" versus "events" (the PETM) - the PETM data are still averages over thousands of years, to any policy maker this would be a "time average climate". Maybe we can say something like "climate states stable over many millions of years (e.g., the mid-Pliocene), or a warm event lasting a few hundred thousand years (the PETM). (And why do we speak of warm events in plural - is there another case like the PETM?) 2. I suggest: · Post-industrial levels of atmospheric CO[2] and CH[4] have risen far above the levels found in the longest (up to 800,000 years) ice-core records, highlighting the fact that the recent unprecedented rise in these trace gases does not stem from natural mechanisms. Over these multi-millennia time scales, Antarctic temperature and CO[2] co-vary with each other. 3. I suggest: · There is no evidence that the current warming will be mitigated by a natural cooling trend towards glacial conditions. Understanding of orbital forcing indicates that the earth would not naturally enter another ice age for at least 30,000 years. Rising atmospheric CO[2] may delay the earth from entering the next scheduled ice age. 5. This bullet says: Paleoclimate models simulate a change in global mean surface air temperature change between the Last Glacial Maximum and the current interglacial of 3.1 to 5.1°C. That is incorrect. E.g., the first coupled LGM simulation (Ganopolski et al., Nature 1998) obtained 6.2 ºC, and more recently Kim et al. (2003) obtain 10 ºC. Our new large ensemble study (Schneider et al., submitted) gets a glacial cooling in the range of 6.0-7.5 ºC for model versions with mid-range climate sensitivity (2.5-3.5 ºC), and finds that the regional results (e.g., tropical SST cooling, Greenland and Antarctic cooling) of these runs agree well with paleo data - indicating that the data constraints suggest an actual global cooling in this range. The reason why these numbers are larger than many previous modeling studies is that many have only used part of the forcing changes, i.e. mostly not including either vegetation changes or dust forcing. The latter account for ~2 ºC additional cooling in our model. I think if we do want to cite numbers, we need to distinguish which numbers apply to models with the full set of glacial forcings, and which numbers apply to a subset only, which essentially makes those sensitivity studies rather than attempts to simulate the full glacial conditions. They should not be lumped together, else the range of model responses looks far more uncertain than it actually is. 9. This bullet makes the radical claim that Arctic warming caused Antarctic ice sheet decay - I look forward to the submitted Science papers that supposedly show this... But jokes aside - is it true that Eemian Arctic warming is comparable to Arctic warming at the end of this century (like, 6-8 ºC)? I got some sceptical looks when I ran that past a few people here. 14. I suggest: · The current retreat of mountain glaciers is unusual in the context of the Holocene, particularly considering that the known natural forcing mechanisms, such as the orbital decrease in summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere, should be more favourable to glacier growth, as it was in the past. -- To reach me directly please use: [1]rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf [2]www.ozean-klima.de [3]www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4623. 2005-07-20 09:41:07 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:41:07 -0400 from: David Rind subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on Section 6.3 to: Stefan Rahmstorf Sorry, Stefan. In the interest of maintaining a constructive working atmosphere, perhaps I should have used the term "conceptual" model, which I would use for any model (not just CLIMBER-2) that parameterizes the water vapor feedback with a functional relationship, that has a one layer cloud model, that parameterizes the dynamic transports, etc. These are all zeroth or first order processes, which GCMs, with all their flaws (which I'm the first to admit) at least try to calculate. I apologize if the comment was taken personally as applying only to this one model. Unlike others, I believe conceptual models do have their use, which is why I have included without argument the comment in Section 6.2 that models of various complexity are useful for paleoclimate studies due to the long time periods that need to be simulated. I believe such models can suggest possible mechanisms, and, by using appropriate tuning procedures, can suggest orders of magnitude of various terms. But "suggest" is as far as I would go, due to the highly parameterized nature of the primary processes and climate feedbacks - and I should say that if you think this is just coming from the GCM community, this comment comes straight from Peter Stone, who as you know runs an EMIC and has published numerous papers with one. Given that opinion, or even regardless of it, the reference is overused - it shows up four times in five paragraphs. As for your comment about GCMs, if they were used to address questions that depended heavily on highly parameterized representations of the processes you mention, I would call their approach "simplistic" (conceptual) in those cases as well. David At 12:39 PM +0200 7/20/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: have a request on procedure. In the interest of a good and constructive working atmosphere, I would suggest that all of us focus on sober scientific arguments and refrain from unneccessarily derogatory comments about the work of colleagues. I'm referring in this case to David's comment - this reference is overused, especially for such a simplistic model It would never occur to me to call David's model "simplistic" because it does not include an interactive continental ice sheet model, vegetation model, carbon cycle model, sediment model and isotope model. _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 18. 2005-07-20 09:52:27 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith R. Briffa" , , date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 09:52:27 -0300 from: "Ricardo Villalba" subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure to: "Jonathan Overpeck" Hi Keith, Ed, Peck, Eystein Regarding Peck's suggestions, 1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact. Rio de Janeiro, starting in 1851, is the longest, homogeneous temperature record from the Southern Hemisphere. In New Zealand and Australia, temperature records start at the same time. We do not have any long record for the 18th century, even the first half of the 19th century. The hemispheric record from the Southern Hemisphere will be discussed in Chapter 2 and we do not have any additional information to provide. 2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed) Definitely!! I do not have the records here in Mendoza. Keith, do you have access to these data? As soon as I receive the borehole records I will incorporate them in the figures. I would appreciate receiving the key references to properly cite the records. 3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty please...) to draft the final figure so that it matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is this ok, and do you have the data to do the job. If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send upon request? At the time the figure is ready, I will send all the data to Keith and Tim to draft the final figure, and the final text to incorporate in the FOD. Cheers, Ricardo ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jonathan Overpeck" To: "Ricardo Villalba" Cc: "Keith Briffa" ; ; "Eystein Jansen" Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2005 5:55 PM Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure Hi SH gang - Thanks for keeping things moving Ricardo. Eystein and I just discussed this fig on the phone and would like to suggest the following: 1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact. 2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed) 3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty please...) to draft the final figure so that it matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is this ok, and do you have the data to do the job. If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send upon request? Many thanks, Peck and Eystein >Dear Keith and Ed, > >Please, find attached the new version of the SH figure for the IPCC. I have >now included the New Zealand record. All the records have been scaled to 4 >°C amplitude. Variability in the Tas record is reduced compared to New >Zealand and Patagonian records. The reference lines is the mean used for the >calibration period in each record, 15 C for New Zealand, 14.95 C for >Tasmania and 0 C for the Patagonian records (they show departures). Please, >let me know if you want to introduce some changes in the figure. The >opposite phase in the Patagonia-New Zealand records is so clear before 1850, >which is consistent with our previous TPI. For instance, in the instrumental >record the 1971 and 1976 are the coolest summer in northern Patagonian >during the past 70 years, but the warmest in New Zealand reconstruction!! >This out of phase relationship between regions in the Southern Hemisphere >points out to the difficulty of using few records to get a hemispheric >average. Cheers, > >Ricardo > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Jonathan Overpeck" >To: "edwardcook" >Cc: "Keith Briffa" <>; "Ricardo Villalba" ; >"Eystein Jansen" <> >Sent: Monday, July 18, 2005 1:09 PM >Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure > > >Thanks Ed - Ricardo, can you get the data from Henry? What do you think, >Keith? >Best, Peck > >>Given the nature of the SH and what Ricardo put >>together, I would keep the Australian and South >>Aftrican borehole records separate. Henry >>Pollack can provide them, I am sure. He gave an >>excellent talk at a meeting in Canberra that I >>recently participated in. >> >>Cheers, >> >>Ed >> >>P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction. >> >>JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM >>OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS >>BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL >>TEMPERATURES >> YEAR TEMP °C >> 900 13.751 >> 901 14.461 >> 902 13.236 >> 903 13.331 >> 904 13.483 >> 905 13.632 >> 906 12.959 >> 907 13.628 >> 908 13.372 >> 909 12.868 >> 910 13.244 >> 911 13.793 >> 912 14.048 >> 913 14.444 >> 914 13.095 >> 915 14.036 >> 916 13.215 >> 917 13.698 >> 918 13.570 >> 919 13.665 >> 920 13.871 >> 921 13.966 >> 922 14.762 >> 923 14.325 >> 924 14.077 >> 925 14.713 >> 926 14.081 >> 927 14.218 >> 928 13.793 >> 929 14.151 >> 930 14.985 >> 931 13.599 >> 932 14.663 >> 933 14.110 >> 934 14.968 >> 935 14.391 >> 936 15.484 >> 937 15.554 >> 938 14.977 >> 939 15.303 >> 940 15.179 >> 941 15.591 >> 942 14.737 >> 943 14.007 >> 944 14.865 >> 945 14.449 >> 946 14.350 >> 947 15.096 >> 948 15.257 >> 949 15.789 >> 950 15.303 >> 951 15.513 >> 952 16.111 >> 953 15.723 >> 954 15.459 >> 955 14.015 >> 956 13.083 >> 957 13.850 >> 958 14.069 >> 959 13.772 >> 960 14.873 >> 961 14.692 >> 962 14.923 >> 963 14.527 >> 964 15.034 >> 965 14.688 >> 966 14.486 >> 967 14.444 >> 968 14.436 >> 969 13.776 >> 970 13.809 >> 971 14.391 >> 972 13.487 >> 973 13.995 >> 974 14.061 >> 975 14.321 >> 976 14.882 >> 977 14.226 >> 978 14.977 >> 979 15.447 >> 980 14.424 >> 981 14.923 >> 982 14.180 >> 983 15.484 >> 984 13.487 >> 985 14.168 >> 986 14.176 > > 987 15.699 >> 988 15.187 >> 989 16.305 >> 990 14.845 >> 991 14.647 >> 992 15.765 >> 993 14.754 >> 994 14.271 >> 995 13.623 >> 996 14.300 >> 997 13.937 >> 998 14.040 >> 999 14.011 >> 1000 12.976 >> 1001 13.904 >> 1002 13.500 >> 1003 13.586 >> 1004 14.090 >> 1005 13.809 >> 1006 13.413 >> 1007 13.318 >> 1008 13.892 >> 1009 14.151 >> 1010 14.391 >> 1011 13.793 >> 1012 14.626 >> 1013 13.755 >> 1014 13.838 >> 1015 13.017 > > 1016 13.083 >> 1017 13.549 >> 1018 13.471 >> 1019 13.087 >> 1020 13.458 >> 1021 13.203 >> 1022 14.090 >> 1023 13.574 >> 1024 13.755 >> 1025 13.826 >> 1026 13.137 >> 1027 13.194 >> 1028 14.036 >> 1029 13.091 >> 1030 13.768 >> 1031 13.813 >> 1032 13.846 >> 1033 13.871 >> 1034 14.255 >> 1035 14.370 >> 1036 13.805 >> 1037 14.576 >> 1038 13.504 >> 1039 13.867 >> 1040 14.927 >> 1041 14.420 >> 1042 15.661 >> 1043 15.484 >> 1044 15.595 >> 1045 14.741 >> 1046 13.644 >> 1047 14.271 >> 1048 14.288 >> 1049 13.661 >> 1050 13.665 >> 1051 13.298 >> 1052 14.003 >> 1053 13.826 >> 1054 13.788 >> 1055 13.768 >> 1056 12.976 >> 1057 13.397 >> 1058 13.529 >> 1059 13.549 >> 1060 13.846 >> 1061 14.032 >> 1062 14.820 >> 1063 13.962 >> 1064 14.279 >> 1065 14.151 >> 1066 14.358 >> 1067 14.131 >> 1068 13.652 >> 1069 13.941 >> 1070 14.007 >> 1071 14.403 >> 1072 13.764 >> 1073 13.982 >> 1074 13.846 >> 1075 13.830 >> 1076 13.450 >> 1077 13.632 >> 1078 13.265 >> 1079 13.331 >> 1080 14.267 >> 1081 13.644 >> 1082 13.549 >> 1083 13.557 >> 1084 13.549 >> 1085 14.725 >> 1086 13.479 >> 1087 12.848 >> 1088 12.559 >> 1089 12.926 >> 1090 13.793 >> 1091 14.387 >> 1092 14.531 >> 1093 14.114 >> 1094 14.754 >> 1095 14.688 >> 1096 14.845 >> 1097 14.729 >> 1098 15.059 >> 1099 15.059 >> 1100 15.055 >> 1101 16.057 >> 1102 15.208 >> 1103 15.492 >> 1104 14.519 >> 1105 14.741 >> 1106 14.151 >> 1107 15.005 >> 1108 13.640 >> 1109 13.652 >> 1110 13.566 >> 1111 13.978 >> 1112 14.424 >> 1113 14.180 >> 1114 14.931 >> 1115 14.601 >> 1116 14.403 >> 1117 14.391 >> 1118 14.981 >> 1119 15.125 >> 1120 13.817 >> 1121 12.897 >> 1122 13.863 >> 1123 14.271 >> 1124 14.857 >> 1125 14.882 >> 1126 14.762 >> 1127 14.548 >> 1128 14.403 >> 1129 14.667 >> 1130 14.572 >> 1131 14.057 >> 1132 14.556 >> 1133 15.018 >> 1134 13.892 >> 1135 13.995 >> 1136 13.982 >> 1137 14.853 >> 1138 14.779 >> 1139 15.129 >> 1140 15.117 >> 1141 14.849 >> 1142 15.228 >> 1143 15.216 >> 1144 15.030 >> 1145 14.428 >> 1146 15.063 >> 1147 15.216 >> 1148 15.043 >> 1149 15.034 >> 1150 14.370 >> 1151 15.096 >> 1152 15.410 >> 1153 15.719 >> 1154 16.577 >> 1155 15.769 >> 1156 15.364 >> 1157 15.855 >> 1158 15.422 >> 1159 14.515 >> 1160 15.810 >> 1161 15.628 >> 1162 15.402 >> 1163 15.092 >> 1164 15.298 >> 1165 14.865 >> 1166 14.882 >> 1167 15.274 >> 1168 14.605 >> 1169 14.746 >> 1170 15.472 >> 1171 15.509 >> 1172 15.018 >> 1173 15.369 >> 1174 15.084 >> 1175 15.855 >> 1176 14.795 >> 1177 15.571 >> 1178 14.255 >> 1179 14.510 >> 1180 14.865 >> 1181 14.036 >> 1182 14.688 >> 1183 14.713 >> 1184 14.519 >> 1185 14.255 >> 1186 15.204 >> 1187 14.461 >> 1188 15.476 >> 1189 14.882 >> 1190 15.005 >> 1191 14.453 >> 1192 14.729 >> 1193 15.265 >> 1194 14.444 >> 1195 14.696 >> 1196 15.793 >> 1197 14.581 >> 1198 15.014 >> 1199 14.539 >> 1200 14.044 >> 1201 14.733 >> 1202 14.853 >> 1203 15.298 >> 1204 13.772 >> 1205 13.991 >> 1206 14.651 >> 1207 14.836 >> 1208 14.440 >> 1209 15.162 >> 1210 14.766 >> 1211 15.010 >> 1212 15.356 >> 1213 14.787 >> 1214 15.645 >> 1215 15.435 >> 1216 15.043 >> 1217 15.063 >> 1218 14.151 >> 1219 15.397 >> 1220 15.154 >> 1221 15.892 >> 1222 15.488 >> 1223 15.938 >> 1224 15.525 >> 1225 15.591 >> 1226 14.589 >> 1227 15.496 >> 1228 15.963 >> 1229 14.502 >> 1230 14.457 >> 1231 15.468 >> 1232 14.985 >> 1233 15.282 >> 1234 14.989 >> 1235 15.237 >> 1236 15.711 >> 1237 15.888 >> 1238 14.259 >> 1239 14.560 >> 1240 15.711 >> 1241 15.195 >> 1242 15.484 >> 1243 15.166 > > 1244 16.020 >> 1245 16.454 >> 1246 15.480 >> 1247 15.492 >> 1248 16.528 >> 1249 15.150 >> 1250 14.436 >> 1251 14.878 >> 1252 15.723 >> 1253 15.043 >> 1254 15.121 >> 1255 14.845 >> 1256 14.807 >> 1257 14.482 >> 1258 14.585 >> 1259 15.307 >> 1260 15.100 >> 1261 14.354 >> 1262 13.995 >> 1263 14.106 >> 1264 14.403 >> 1265 14.754 >> 1266 14.581 >> 1267 14.799 >> 1268 14.378 >> 1269 14.671 >> 1270 14.193 >> 1271 14.387 >> 1272 14.453 > > 1273 14.510 >> 1274 15.187 >> 1275 15.393 >> 1276 14.498 >> 1277 14.560 >> 1278 15.022 >> 1279 14.498 >> 1280 14.725 >> 1281 13.549 >> 1282 14.977 >> 1283 14.065 >> 1284 14.024 >> 1285 13.603 >> 1286 15.220 >> 1287 15.080 >> 1288 14.898 >> 1289 14.774 >> 1290 15.542 >> 1291 15.212 >> 1292 14.267 >> 1293 14.692 >> 1294 13.644 >> 1295 14.222 >> 1296 15.038 >> 1297 14.721 >> 1298 15.682 >> 1299 13.896 >> 1300 14.766 >> 1301 14.836 >> 1302 14.370 >> 1303 14.812 >> 1304 14.812 >> 1305 13.673 >> 1306 14.036 >> 1307 13.929 >> 1308 14.807 >> 1309 14.114 >> 1310 13.446 >> 1311 13.368 >> 1312 14.168 >> 1313 14.989 >> 1314 14.292 >> 1315 14.985 >> 1316 14.123 >> 1317 14.321 >> 1318 13.966 >> 1319 14.325 >> 1320 14.647 >> 1321 14.622 >> 1322 14.279 >> 1323 14.510 >> 1324 13.689 >> 1325 13.450 >> 1326 14.197 >> 1327 13.867 >> 1328 14.205 >> 1329 14.779 >> 1330 14.350 >> 1331 14.729 >> 1332 13.479 >> 1333 13.974 >> 1334 14.453 >> 1335 14.535 >> 1336 15.402 >> 1337 14.424 >> 1338 14.399 >> 1339 14.906 >> 1340 15.430 >> 1341 14.531 >> 1342 15.785 >> 1343 15.513 >> 1344 15.220 >> 1345 15.352 >> 1346 15.443 >> 1347 15.410 >> 1348 15.777 >> 1349 14.902 >> 1350 14.576 >> 1351 14.605 >> 1352 14.168 >> 1353 14.601 >> 1354 15.414 >> 1355 14.300 >> 1356 14.630 >> 1357 15.170 >> 1358 14.919 >> 1359 14.688 >> 1360 14.081 >> 1361 14.799 >> 1362 14.581 >> 1363 15.133 >> 1364 13.838 >> 1365 14.708 >> 1366 13.149 >> 1367 13.281 >> 1368 13.760 >> 1369 14.123 >> 1370 13.314 >> 1371 14.523 >> 1372 14.267 >> 1373 14.226 >> 1374 14.044 >> 1375 14.271 >> 1376 15.307 >> 1377 14.684 >> 1378 14.168 >> 1379 14.473 >> 1380 13.578 >> 1381 13.586 >> 1382 13.999 >> 1383 13.991 >> 1384 13.710 >> 1385 14.411 >> 1386 13.867 >> 1387 14.255 >> 1388 13.611 >> 1389 13.974 >> 1390 13.916 >> 1391 13.615 >> 1392 14.440 >> 1393 14.787 >> 1394 15.880 >> 1395 16.297 >> 1396 16.289 >> 1397 15.170 >> 1398 16.082 >> 1399 15.463 >> 1400 14.366 >> 1401 14.758 >> 1402 14.902 >> 1403 14.568 >> 1404 15.158 >> 1405 15.579 >> 1406 13.966 >> 1407 13.970 >> 1408 13.772 >> 1409 14.523 >> 1410 14.498 >> 1411 14.791 >> 1412 14.007 >> 1413 15.818 >> 1414 13.974 >> 1415 13.776 >> 1416 13.760 >> 1417 14.407 >> 1418 14.498 >> 1419 14.515 >> 1420 14.341 >> 1421 14.374 >> 1422 13.677 >> 1423 14.354 >> 1424 13.223 >> 1425 13.801 >> 1426 14.560 >> 1427 14.374 >> 1428 14.494 >> 1429 15.051 >> 1430 14.836 >> 1431 13.999 >> 1432 14.341 >> 1433 14.865 >> 1434 15.063 >> 1435 15.311 >> 1436 15.765 >> 1437 15.789 >> 1438 15.204 >> 1439 15.298 >> 1440 15.257 >> 1441 15.443 >> 1442 14.737 >> 1443 15.385 >> 1444 15.723 >> 1445 14.717 >> 1446 15.088 >> 1447 15.253 >> 1448 14.477 >> 1449 16.004 >> 1450 14.581 >> 1451 14.449 >> 1452 14.993 >> 1453 14.151 >> 1454 14.556 >> 1455 14.366 >> 1456 14.601 >> 1457 13.813 >> 1458 14.242 >> 1459 15.047 >> 1460 14.919 >> 1461 14.300 >> 1462 15.010 >> 1463 14.139 >> 1464 15.001 >> 1465 14.873 >> 1466 15.406 >> 1467 14.399 >> 1468 14.671 >> 1469 15.092 >> 1470 14.337 >> 1471 14.948 >> 1472 15.047 >> 1473 14.523 >> 1474 14.680 >> 1475 14.395 >> 1476 15.661 >> 1477 15.158 >> 1478 15.414 >> 1479 15.641 >> 1480 15.909 >> 1481 15.748 >> 1482 14.708 >> 1483 14.981 >> 1484 14.659 >> 1485 15.113 >> 1486 14.754 >> 1487 15.740 >> 1488 15.327 >> 1489 15.125 >> 1490 15.026 >> 1491 15.567 >> 1492 15.265 >> 1493 15.996 >> 1494 16.326 >> 1495 14.915 >> 1496 15.831 >> 1497 14.845 >> 1498 15.670 >> 1499 16.156 >> 1500 15.864 > > 1501 15.831 >> 1502 16.581 >> 1503 15.212 >> 1504 15.534 >> 1505 15.270 >> 1506 15.492 >> 1507 15.633 >> 1508 14.420 >> 1509 15.723 >> 1510 14.816 >> 1511 15.282 >> 1512 15.641 >> 1513 14.655 >> 1514 14.510 >> 1515 13.508 >> 1516 14.172 >> 1517 14.251 >> 1518 13.628 >> 1519 13.698 >> 1520 13.405 >> 1521 13.920 >> 1522 13.974 >> 1523 13.978 >> 1524 14.238 >> 1525 14.003 >> 1526 13.298 >> 1527 13.694 >> 1528 15.005 >> 1529 14.218 > > 1530 14.110 >> 1531 14.593 >> 1532 13.916 >> 1533 14.510 >> 1534 14.057 >> 1535 14.048 >> 1536 13.673 >> 1537 14.477 >> 1538 14.090 >> 1539 14.300 >> 1540 14.374 >> 1541 14.387 >> 1542 14.085 >> 1543 14.184 >> 1544 14.597 >> 1545 14.783 >> 1546 15.348 >> 1547 15.859 >> 1548 15.835 >> 1549 14.729 >> 1550 15.451 >> 1551 15.204 >> 1552 15.022 >> 1553 15.352 >> 1554 14.251 >> 1555 14.135 >> 1556 14.609 >> 1557 14.572 >> 1558 15.224 >> 1559 14.688 >> 1560 14.618 >> 1561 15.179 >> 1562 14.399 >> 1563 14.873 >> 1564 13.652 >> 1565 13.958 >> 1566 15.595 >> 1567 14.898 >> 1568 13.595 >> 1569 14.019 >> 1570 15.030 >> 1571 15.228 >> 1572 15.241 >> 1573 16.355 >> 1574 14.865 >> 1575 14.923 >> 1576 15.542 >> 1577 15.162 >> 1578 14.956 >> 1579 15.657 >> 1580 15.208 >> 1581 15.208 >> 1582 15.166 >> 1583 14.473 >> 1584 14.052 >> 1585 14.213 >> 1586 14.568 >> 1587 14.762 >> 1588 14.288 >> 1589 14.069 >> 1590 13.929 >> 1591 13.479 >> 1592 14.044 >> 1593 14.267 >> 1594 14.288 >> 1595 14.609 >> 1596 14.362 >> 1597 13.846 >> 1598 14.098 >> 1599 14.147 >> 1600 14.783 >> 1601 13.995 >> 1602 13.925 >> 1603 13.999 >> 1604 14.688 >> 1605 13.892 >> 1606 15.410 >> 1607 14.325 >> 1608 15.241 >> 1609 15.104 >> 1610 14.531 >> 1611 15.958 >> 1612 14.597 >> 1613 14.337 >> 1614 14.647 >> 1615 13.318 >> 1616 14.424 >> 1617 13.768 >> 1618 14.779 >> 1619 14.886 >> 1620 14.065 >> 1621 14.085 >> 1622 14.626 >> 1623 13.912 >> 1624 13.487 >> 1625 14.292 >> 1626 13.075 >> 1627 13.871 >> 1628 13.850 >> 1629 13.755 >> 1630 14.680 >> 1631 14.048 >> 1632 14.601 >> 1633 15.752 >> 1634 14.420 >> 1635 14.085 >> 1636 14.230 >> 1637 15.426 >> 1638 16.322 >> 1639 14.762 >> 1640 14.882 >> 1641 14.985 >> 1642 14.931 >> 1643 15.484 >> 1644 15.843 >> 1645 14.861 >> 1646 14.284 >> 1647 14.494 >> 1648 14.935 >> 1649 13.966 >> 1650 14.296 >> 1651 13.768 >> 1652 15.001 >> 1653 14.944 >> 1654 15.418 >> 1655 15.146 >> 1656 14.915 >> 1657 14.803 >> 1658 14.638 >> 1659 14.630 >> 1660 14.052 >> 1661 13.702 >> 1662 14.081 >> 1663 14.312 >> 1664 14.197 >> 1665 13.780 >> 1666 14.292 >> 1667 14.634 >> 1668 13.768 >> 1669 14.671 >> 1670 14.246 >> 1671 14.812 >> 1672 15.216 >> 1673 15.810 >> 1674 14.869 >> 1675 16.148 >> 1676 14.977 >> 1677 14.923 >> 1678 15.488 >> 1679 14.956 >> 1680 14.098 >> 1681 14.523 >> 1682 15.327 >> 1683 15.666 >> 1684 15.554 >> 1685 15.270 >> 1686 15.492 >> 1687 15.459 >> 1688 14.754 >> 1689 14.741 >> 1690 14.700 >> 1691 14.906 >> 1692 13.904 >> 1693 14.527 >> 1694 15.063 >> 1695 14.399 >> 1696 15.096 >> 1697 15.360 >> 1698 15.694 >> 1699 15.249 >> 1700 14.779 >> 1701 14.609 >> 1702 15.336 >> 1703 15.121 >> 1704 15.154 >> 1705 15.212 >> 1706 14.750 >> 1707 15.472 >> 1708 14.164 >> 1709 13.665 >> 1710 14.213 >> 1711 14.741 >> 1712 15.521 >> 1713 15.410 >> 1714 14.519 >> 1715 15.154 >> 1716 14.597 >> 1717 15.212 >> 1718 14.688 >> 1719 13.962 >> 1720 15.109 >> 1721 15.839 >> 1722 15.765 >> 1723 15.001 >> 1724 15.389 >> 1725 15.088 >> 1726 14.655 >> 1727 14.312 >> 1728 14.824 >> 1729 14.981 >> 1730 13.640 >> 1731 15.043 >> 1732 13.953 >> 1733 13.681 >> 1734 14.036 >> 1735 13.937 >> 1736 14.832 >> 1737 14.807 >> 1738 14.325 >> 1739 14.337 >> 1740 14.680 >> 1741 14.779 >> 1742 14.255 >> 1743 14.205 >> 1744 14.024 >> 1745 14.069 >> 1746 15.216 >> 1747 15.455 >> 1748 15.447 >> 1749 15.851 >> 1750 15.253 >> 1751 14.626 >> 1752 15.294 >> 1753 15.744 >> 1754 15.158 >> 1755 14.750 >> 1756 15.319 >> 1757 15.059 > > 1758 15.195 >> 1759 14.725 >> 1760 14.609 >> 1761 14.869 >> 1762 15.212 >> 1763 15.505 >> 1764 14.634 >> 1765 15.175 >> 1766 14.552 >> 1767 15.109 >> 1768 14.312 >> 1769 14.090 >> 1770 14.246 >> 1771 14.127 >> 1772 14.667 >> 1773 14.312 >> 1774 14.659 >> 1775 14.296 >> 1776 14.527 >> 1777 14.069 >> 1778 15.005 >> 1779 14.832 >> 1780 15.146 >> 1781 14.865 >> 1782 14.102 >> 1783 13.735 >> 1784 14.510 >> 1785 14.052 >> 1786 14.795 > > 1787 15.455 >> 1788 15.298 >> 1789 14.325 >> 1790 14.927 >> 1791 14.230 >> 1792 14.230 >> 1793 14.836 >> 1794 15.637 >> 1795 15.022 >> 1796 14.473 >> 1797 14.968 >> 1798 14.028 >> 1799 13.463 >> 1800 14.151 >> 1801 15.187 >> 1802 15.290 >> 1803 15.732 >> 1804 14.985 >> 1805 15.224 >> 1806 16.251 >> 1807 13.289 >> 1808 14.420 >> 1809 14.696 >> 1810 14.568 >> 1811 15.802 >> 1812 16.082 >> 1813 16.416 >> 1814 16.082 >> 1815 16.309 >> 1816 15.967 >> 1817 16.247 >> 1818 15.208 >> 1819 15.587 >> 1820 15.323 >> 1821 15.505 >> 1822 14.812 >> 1823 15.298 >> 1824 15.022 >> 1825 15.179 >> 1826 15.967 >> 1827 14.040 >> 1828 14.449 >> 1829 14.242 >> 1830 14.548 >> 1831 14.378 >> 1832 15.137 >> 1833 13.496 >> 1834 14.081 >> 1835 15.228 >> 1836 14.700 >> 1837 14.432 >> 1838 14.927 >> 1839 14.482 >> 1840 15.175 >> 1841 14.296 >> 1842 14.762 >> 1843 14.350 >> 1844 14.770 >> 1845 15.026 >> 1846 14.688 >> 1847 14.944 >> 1848 15.088 >> 1849 14.774 >> 1850 14.865 >> 1851 14.787 >> 1852 14.527 >> 1853 14.502 >> 1854 15.183 >> 1855 14.828 >> 1856 15.270 >> 1857 14.436 >> 1858 14.721 >> 1859 14.539 >> 1860 14.407 >> 1861 14.832 >> 1862 14.271 >> 1863 14.490 >> 1864 13.953 >> 1865 15.290 >> 1866 14.473 >> 1867 15.414 >> 1868 14.440 >> 1869 15.129 >> 1870 15.022 >> 1871 15.468 >> 1872 14.993 >> 1873 14.890 >> 1874 14.638 >> 1875 14.898 >> 1876 14.993 >> 1877 14.366 >> 1878 14.333 >> 1879 13.454 >> 1880 15.369 >> 1881 15.109 >> 1882 15.187 >> 1883 15.278 >> 1884 14.308 >> 1885 15.026 >> 1886 15.385 >> 1887 15.183 >> 1888 14.127 >> 1889 14.985 >> 1890 15.480 >> 1891 14.717 >> 1892 15.773 >> 1893 14.807 >> 1894 15.451 >> 1895 15.179 >> 1896 13.780 >> 1897 14.531 >> 1898 13.912 >> 1899 14.354 >> 1900 15.290 >> 1901 15.752 >> 1902 14.886 >> 1903 15.216 >> 1904 15.938 >> 1905 15.208 >> 1906 14.279 >> 1907 14.923 >> 1908 15.022 >> 1909 15.501 >> 1910 15.633 >> 1911 15.212 >> 1912 13.648 >> 1913 14.329 >> 1914 15.389 >> 1915 14.704 >> 1916 15.983 >> 1917 14.779 >> 1918 14.432 >> 1919 14.024 >> 1920 14.040 >> 1921 14.622 >> 1922 15.315 >> 1923 14.560 >> 1924 15.835 >> 1925 14.927 >> 1926 14.812 >> 1927 15.220 >> 1928 16.433 >> 1929 14.506 >> 1930 14.535 >> 1931 14.073 >> 1932 14.440 >> 1933 15.406 >> 1934 14.708 >> 1935 15.026 >> 1936 14.106 >> 1937 13.372 >> 1938 14.663 >> 1939 13.842 >> 1940 13.879 >> 1941 14.725 >> 1942 14.510 >> 1943 14.337 >> 1944 15.133 >> 1945 14.189 >> 1946 14.048 >> 1947 14.098 >> 1948 14.923 >> 1949 14.733 >> 1950 14.581 >> 1951 15.121 >> 1952 14.073 >> 1953 14.572 >> 1954 14.106 >> 1955 14.457 >> 1956 14.849 >> 1957 14.626 >> 1958 15.374 >> 1959 15.183 >> 1960 14.970 >> 1961 15.140 >> 1962 15.289 >> 1963 14.991 >> 1964 14.395 >> 1965 14.991 >> 1966 15.587 >> 1967 14.948 >> 1968 14.948 >> 1969 14.629 >> 1970 15.779 >> 1971 16.354 >> 1972 15.247 >> 1973 14.671 >> 1974 15.353 >> 1975 16.141 >> 1976 14.586 >> 1977 14.863 >> 1978 15.332 >> 1979 14.948 >> 1980 14.906 >> 1981 15.481 >> 1982 14.991 >> 1983 14.117 >> 1984 15.353 >> 1985 15.225 >> 1986 15.587 >> 1987 15.140 >> 1988 14.863 >> 1989 16.098 >> 1990 15.417 >> 1991 14.991 >> 1992 14.096 >> 1993 14.160 >> 1994 15.183 >> 1995 15.119 >> 1996 15.630 >> 1997 14.927 >> 1998 15.417 >> 1999 16.354 >> >>On Jul 17, 2005, at 10:40 PM, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >> >>>Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a >>>big fan of the Jones and Mann SH recon. It is >>>based on so little. On the other hand, it is in >>>the literature. So, I leave it up to you and > >>Keith to decide - perhaps Eystein can weigh in >>>too. >>> >>>I do, however, think it would be really helpful >>>to included the borehole data (see prev. >>>emails) - either as a single SH curve, or >>>(probably better) two regional curves >>>(Australia and S. Africa). Is there a reason >>>this is not a good idea? Can't complain about >>>snow bias down there... >>> >>>Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the >>>next draft and figure - complete w/ borehole I > >>hope. >>> >>>thx, Peck >>> >>>>Hi Keith, >>>> >>>>Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed >Cook >>>>returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall, he >>>>agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp data to >>>>include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month >ago. >>>> >>>>In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to the >Jones >>>>and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH. At that time we >have >>>>to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the >>>>regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include >Antarctica >>>>(Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with the >>>>hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at the >>>>bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain both >>>>hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at the >>>>bottom of my figure. Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein to >see >>>>the best way to proceed? Thanks, >>>> >>>>Ricardo >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>----- Original Message ----- >>>>From: "Keith Briffa" >>>>To: ; "Eystein Jansen" >>>>Cc: ; "Ed Cook" >>>>Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM >>>>Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure >>>> >>>>> Guys >>>>> still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am exploring >the >>>>MWP >>>>> Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to do >a >>>>> plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry - I am happy >to >>>>> very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the ENSO >>>>stuff ) >>>>> but my understanding is that this section is best done (to incorporate >>>>also >>>>> the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my Peck. >This >>>>> is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the regional >>>>> forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps not. >>>>> Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will incorporate >it >>>>but >>>>> that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the >North >>>>> Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section . >>>>> It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff and >>>>> involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the Figure >. In >>>>> meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing text >and >>>>bullets >>>>> Keith >>>>> >>>>> Keith >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>>> >>>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>>> >>>>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern >>>>hemisphere2.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0) >>> >>> >>>-- >>>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>> >>>Mail and Fedex Address: >>> >>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>University of Arizona >>>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >>================================== >>Dr. Edward R. Cook >>Doherty Senior Scholar and >>Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory >>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory >>Palisades, New York 10964 USA >>Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu >>Phone: 845-365-8618 >>Fax: 845-365-8152 >>================================== > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:SHregteml 1.JPG (JPEG/«IC») (0008ADC3) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2558. 2005-07-20 10:58:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 10:58:48 -0600 (MDT) from: Bette Otto-Bliesner subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Basis for radiative forcings in Figure 6.3.1-2 to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi all, Here are the numbers I used for the radiative forcing panel of Figure 6.3.1-2. GHGs - PMIP-2 concentrations for LGM and PreI: LGM PreI CO2 185 280 CH4 350 760 N2O 200 270 - Ice cores measurement uncertainties of +/- 5 ppm for CO2, +/- 20 ppb for CH4, +/- 10 ppb for N2O from Jacqueline Fluckiger, Valerie, and Dominique. - TAR formulas to convert to radiative forcings, uncertainties in calculation both as per discussions with Ramaswamy. radiative forcing: CO2 -2.22, uncertainty range -1.87 to -2.60 W/m2 CH4+N2O -0.54, uncertainty range -0.40 to -0.68W/m2 Mineral Dust - Claquin et al. (2003) Table 1, deltas Exp1-3. r.f. = -1.4, uncertainty range -1 to -2 W/m2 Continental ice sheet and sea level - PMIP-1 estimates from Taylor et al., will update to PMIP-2 values if they become available for the SOD r.f. = -3, uncertainty range -1.9 to -4 W/m2 Vegetation - calculations by Crucifix based on his recently accepted paper in Climate Dynamics r.f = -1.2, uncertainty range 1.0 to 1.4 W/m2 Bette ______________________________________________ Bette L. Otto-Bliesner Climate Change Research National Center for Atmospheric Research 1850 Table Mesa Drive / P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, Colorado 80307 Phone: 303-497-1723 Fax: 303-497-1348 Email: ottobli@ncar.ucar.edu ______________________________________________ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1307. 2005-07-20 11:51:34 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 11:51:34 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on exec bullets to: Bette Otto-Bliesner Hi Bette, thanks for your response to my bullet concerns. Concerning bullet 9, you put my questions to rest - I can see now that it is a bullet we can support well. Concerning bullet 5, your suggested rephrasing goes in the right direction. The additional global cooling due to vegetation feedback in HadCM3 (0.6 ºC) agrees well with that in our model (0.7 ºC). I agree that Kim et al. is an outlier that is hard to understand - it is always tricky how to deal with such outliers in an assessment like IPCC. In the spirit of your rephrasing, how about this version: * The Last Glacial Maximum featured reduced atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, increased atmospheric aerosols, and altered land ice and vegetation. In a coordinated international multi-model experiment (PMIP-2), models simulate a change in global mean surface air temperature change between the Last Glacial Maximum and the current interglacial of 3.1 to 5.1C when considering greenhouse forcing and continental ice changes (radiative forcing change of -4 to 7 W m-2). The other factors (vegetation and aerosol changes) have not yet been considered in most models, but initial results suggest they could cause additional cooling of ~ 2 ºC. I agree with your split-off second part of the bullet. Cheers, Stefan -- To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 952. 2005-07-20 12:11:20 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 12:11:20 -0400 from: David Rind subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on Section 6.3 to: Stefan Rahmstorf Dear Stefan, The distinction here is that GCMs attempt to calculate from first principles the zeroth and first order processes that dominate the problem they are studying, whereas EMICs parameterize many of those processes. The fact that EMICs can reproduce GCM results suggest that their parameterizations have been tuned to do so - but this does not in any way imply that if one alters the forcing or boundary conditions outside of a small range, or apply them to completely different problems, that the two types of models will react similarly. In fact, there is a history of this - the first "EMICs" had a very large sensitivity to a 2% solar insolation change; then they had to be re-tuned to prevent that from happening. EMICs are used for paleo-problems because of their ability to take large time-steps, but there is no free lunch - in doing so, they sacrifice calculating the fundamental physical processes the way the real world does it. GCMs have storms, they have real water vapor transports, they have winds calculated from solving the conservation of momentum equation, etc. etc. There is a quantum difference between the fundamental approaches - it is not a continuum, in which there are no real differences, everything is simply a matter of opinion, there is no such thing as truth - that's the argument that greenhouse skeptics use to try to make science go away. Because we can't use GCMs for long-time scale problems, we do the best we can - we use these heavily parameterized models. If we could use GCMs for those problems, EMICs could then be tuned to produce the GCM results on those time-scales as well. But in this case we have no way to validate the EMIC results - and since the first principles are not being used, we cannot know whether they represent a physically consistent solution or not. Therefore all they can do is suggest interactions among processes, a useful though not definitive addition to the field. David ps - concerning CLIMBER-2, I asked a number of leading climate scientists to read the model description paper. Peter Stone was the only person I asked who thought the model was at all useful for studying the types of problems we are discussing. And it was not only GCM scientists. If you want to hear further cogent arguments concerning its inapplicability, consider contacting Bill Rossow (the recent winner of a major honor as a leading climate scientist) but make sure your email program or telephone accepts unexpurgated text. At 4:22 PM +0200 7/20/05, Stefan Rahmstorf wrote: >Dear David, > >I take from your response that you consider all models that >parameterise an important first-order process "conceptual models". I >can live with that - but then there are only conceptual climate >models around. Any coupled climate GCM that I know of parameterises >oceanic convection (and in a very crude way), hence it is a >conceptual model in your terms, and there is no fundamental >distinction of category between your model and our model. > >To me the scientific question is not whether an important process is >parameterised (many are in GCMs) - it is how well this >parameterisation works, for the task at hand. We have tested the >feedbacks in great detail (e.g., the cloud, water vapour, lapse rate >and snow/ice albedo feedbacks for 2xCO2) in our model and they >perform quantitatively within the range simulated by various GCMs. >The same is true for many other diagnostics - the model has taken >part in model intercomparisons with GCMs and always falls within the >range of different GCMs, in a quantitative way. To repeat that >point, the quantitative differences between different GCMs are >larger than the typical difference between our model and a GCM. So I >see no basis for your claim that this model can only "suggest orders >of magnitude". That's just plain wrong from all the evidence that I >have seen (a lot). If you have concrete evidence to the contrary, >other than just knowing one person who happens to agree with you, >please come forward with it. > >Stefan > >-- >To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de >(My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) > >Stefan Rahmstorf >www.ozean-klima.de >www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3217. 2005-07-20 12:18:22 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen ,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Wed Jul 20 12:18:22 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: CLA feedback on Tom and the MWP to: Jonathan Overpeck , Tom Crowley Hi all think this is resolved now (virtually) - We use series that total to Tom/Gabi composite , and we can cite this as an example of the scatter of regional records "in a typical reconstruction". This avoids very difficult issue of what is the best way to aggregate certain data sets - we are simply illustrating the point with one published (by then) data set. The issue of the composite is then not an issue either , because it is not a new (unpublished) composite that we were concerned about - though I still believe it is a distraction to put the composite in. It would be best to use data from 800 or 850 at least , and go to 1500 (?) and presumably normalise over the whole period of data shown. OK? Even though you guys all wish to go with the reduced period (ie not up the present) , but my own instinct is that this might later come back to haunt us - but will take your lead. I agree the look of the Figure should match the others. So, if Tom will send the data sets (his regional curves) , Tim will plot and send back asap for scrutiny. Thanks Tom and thanks for your help with this - further comments on latest version of 6.5 (last 2000 years) still welcome , though will be incorporating a few changes in response to David and Fortunat input , and SH bit (from Ricardo and Ed) still to go in and regional section to be revised (after input from Peck et al.) cheers Keith . At 21:42 19/07/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Keith and Tim: Just got off the phone with Eystein, and hopefully he will sleep ok knowing that we have a plan for the MWP fig and Tom... Please ask questions if we don't cover all the key points, but here's what we think: 1) the MWP fig should span the MWP only, and should emphasize variation in regional amplitude (we agree that we must be clear that this fig is not a reconstruction) - that is, it is best to use time series representing regions, assuming that the regional series do represent a region ok with one or more input series. We want to avoid a regional bias if we can - this is what got us into all the MWP misunderstanding in the first place, perhaps (e.g., nice MWP in Europe/Atlantic region - must be global) 2) If you guys could agree on the series and the interval, that'd be great. We agree it would be good to start before 1000 and end before the Renaissance (15th century?). If you want more feedback on these issues, we're happy to provide, but it seems logical that you pick series and intervals so that each series covers the entire interval selected. 3) Don't use the Chesapeak record - it is likely biased by salinity 4) We'd like Keith and Tim to draft the final figure so that it matches the look and style of the other two figs they have made. Hope this is doable. Tom, does Keith have all the data? Thanks for sending if not. 5) We agree that Tom should NOT be a CA given that he was officially one of the ZOD reviewers. Of course, this doesn't represent a real conflict, but we need to avoid even the appearance of conflict. We greatly appreciate all the feedback that Tom is providing! Is this plan ok w/ you Tom? We think you're cool with it, but just want to check one more time. That... it is. Please let us know if there are any more questions. Keith - feel free to try and get Eystein on his cell doing your work hours if you want quick feedback. Or we can do this by email - he's not in a very email friendly place right now, but the fishing appears to be ok. Again, thanks to you both for all the discussion and thought that has gone into this figure. Best, peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 400. 2005-07-20 12:39:05 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 12:39:05 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on Section 6.3 to: David Rind Dear chapter 6 friends, I have a request on procedure. In the interest of a good and constructive working atmosphere, I would suggest that all of us focus on sober scientific arguments and refrain from unneccessarily derogatory comments about the work of colleagues. I'm referring in this case to David's comment - this reference is overused, especially for such a simplistic model The reference concerned is our theory of DO events which appeared in Nature in 2001 and has since been cited 133 times according to the Web of Science (a sign of overuse?) The model concerned is the CLIMBER-2 model, featured in over 50 peer-reviewed publications since 1998, including 7 in Nature and Science. This model is different from David's model, because it has been constructed for a differenet purpose, but it is not "simplistic". It would never occur to me to call David's model "simplistic" because it does not include an interactive continental ice sheet model, vegetation model, carbon cycle model, sediment model and isotope model. I'm absolutely open to any rational scientific criticism and discussion, but I can see no purpose in derogatory statements like the above, which include not even a trace of scientific argument. This kind of thing only poisons the working atmosphere in our group, which I thought was very positive and a great pleasure in Beijing. Regards, Stefan -- To reach me directly please use: [1]rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf [2]www.ozean-klima.de [3]www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 5090. 2005-07-20 13:48:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 13:48:11 -0500 from: Peczkis Jan subject: Re: [ITRDBFOR] How to intimidate scientists to: ITRDBFOR@LISTSERV.ARIZONA.EDU I object to the use of this forum to promote global warming as fact. This forum should deal directly with tree rings and nothing else. As for politics, it works both ways. Yes, there are those who would like global warming to be false so that they would not have to change their ways or spend the money to make corrections. But don't forget that there are also those who have used environmental concerns to mask their antipathy towards free enterprise. They would like nothing more than to use such things as the threat of global warming to increase their socialistic governmental power over American society in general and American free enterprise in particular. Jan Peczkis ----- Original Message ----- From: Franco Biondi Date: Tuesday, July 19, 2005 8:16 pm Subject: [ITRDBFOR] How to intimidate scientists > Dear Forum, > > in case you haven't yet, I encourage you to learn more about the > recentletter sent by US Representative Joe Barton (Texas), > Chairman of the House > Energy and Commerce Committee, to Michael Mann, Ray Bradley, and > our own > Malcolm Hughes. You can find plenty of information (including the > full text > of the letter and several responses to it) at this website: > http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?cat=1 > > In case you become as outraged as I have, you can sign a petition > at this > web site: > http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/760674840 > > Hope your summer is going well, > Franco > > > -- > ------------------------------------------------------------------- > --------- > Dr. Franco Biondi > DendroLab > University of Nevada > Mail Stop 154 > Reno, NV 89557-0048 > (USA) > > E-MAIL: fbiondi@unr.edu > HOMEPAGE: http://unr.edu/homepage/fbiondi > DENDROLAB WEBSITE: http://woods.geography.unr.edu > PH.: + 1 (775) 784-6921 (office) or 784-6348 (lab) > FAX: + 1 (775) 784-1058 > ------------------------------------------------------------------- > --------- > 3805. 2005-07-20 14:21:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 14:21:12 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure to: "Ricardo Villalba" Hi Ricardo - thanks for the feedback and the plan sounds fine as long as it happens (the final fig) pretty soon (within the next week, so we have time to critique?). When I mentioned instrumental data, I didn't mean ones like the Rio one you mention, but superimposing the local temp record (e.g., the one used in the reconstruction calibration) right on top of each reconstruction (save the borehole series). This would thus be more similar to the NH section 6.5 fig that Keith and Tom did, and show - hopefully - that over the period of overlap, the proxy recon agrees with the local instrumental record. Also, the local instrumental record can come up to 2004. What do you guys think of this? thx, peck >Hi Keith, Ed, Peck, Eystein > > > >Regarding Peck's suggestions, > > >1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact. > > > >Rio de Janeiro, starting in 1851, is the longest, homogeneous temperature >record from the Southern Hemisphere. In New Zealand and Australia, >temperature records start at the same time. We do not have any long record >for the 18th century, even the first half of the 19th century. The >hemispheric record from the Southern Hemisphere will be discussed in Chapter >2 and we do not have any additional information to provide. > > >2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed) > > > >Definitely!! I do not have the records here in Mendoza. Keith, do you have >access to these data? As soon as I receive the borehole records I will >incorporate them in the figures. I would appreciate receiving the key >references to properly cite the records. > > >3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty >please...) to draft the final figure so that it >matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is >this ok, and do you have the data to do the job. >If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send >upon request? > > > >At the time the figure is ready, I will send all the data to Keith and Tim >to draft the final figure, and the final text to incorporate in the FOD. >Cheers, > >Ricardo > > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: "Jonathan Overpeck" >To: "Ricardo Villalba" >Cc: "Keith Briffa" ; ; >"Eystein Jansen" >Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2005 5:55 PM >Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure > > >Hi SH gang - Thanks for keeping things moving >Ricardo. Eystein and I just discussed this fig on >the phone and would like to suggest the following: > >1) should we include instrumental data? If not, it could lessen the impact. >2) we need to include the two borehole (see previous email from me and Ed) >3) we would like to ask Keith and Tim (pretty >please...) to draft the final figure so that it >matches the other in the section and MWP box. Is >this ok, and do you have the data to do the job. >If not, we trust your kind colleagues can send >upon request? > >Many thanks, Peck and Eystein > >>Dear Keith and Ed, >> >>Please, find attached the new version of the SH figure for the IPCC. I >have >>now included the New Zealand record. All the records have been scaled to 4 >>°C amplitude. Variability in the Tas record is reduced compared to New >>Zealand and Patagonian records. The reference lines is the mean used for >the >>calibration period in each record, 15 C for New Zealand, 14.95 C for >>Tasmania and 0 C for the Patagonian records (they show departures). Please, >>let me know if you want to introduce some changes in the figure. The >>opposite phase in the Patagonia-New Zealand records is so clear before >1850, >>which is consistent with our previous TPI. For instance, in the >instrumental >>record the 1971 and 1976 are the coolest summer in northern Patagonian >>during the past 70 years, but the warmest in New Zealand reconstruction!! >>This out of phase relationship between regions in the Southern Hemisphere >>points out to the difficulty of using few records to get a hemispheric > >average. Cheers, >> >>Ricardo >> >>----- Original Message ----- >>From: "Jonathan Overpeck" >>To: "edwardcook" >>Cc: "Keith Briffa" <>; "Ricardo Villalba" ; >>"Eystein Jansen" <> >>Sent: Monday, July 18, 2005 1:09 PM >>Subject: Re: the regional section and MWP Figure >> >> >>Thanks Ed - Ricardo, can you get the data from Henry? What do you think, >>Keith? >>Best, Peck >> >>>Given the nature of the SH and what Ricardo put >>>together, I would keep the Australian and South >>>Aftrican borehole records separate. Henry > >>Pollack can provide them, I am sure. He gave an >>>excellent talk at a meeting in Canberra that I >>>recently participated in. >>> >>>Cheers, >>> >>>Ed >>> >>>P.S. Ricardo, here is the Oroko temperature reconstruction. >>> >>>JANUARY-MARCH TEMPERATURES RECONSTRUCTED FROM >>>OROKO SWAMP, NEW ZEALAND SILVER PINE TREE RINGS >>>BE ADVISED THAT THE DATA AFTER 1958 ARE INSTRUMENTAL >>>TEMPERATURES >>> YEAR TEMP °C >>> 900 13.751 >>> 901 14.461 >>> 902 13.236 >>> 903 13.331 >>> 904 13.483 >>> 905 13.632 >>> 906 12.959 >>> 907 13.628 >>> 908 13.372 >>> 909 12.868 >>> 910 13.244 >>> 911 13.793 >>> 912 14.048 >>> 913 14.444 >>> 914 13.095 >>> 915 14.036 >>> 916 13.215 >>> 917 13.698 >>> 918 13.570 >>> 919 13.665 >>> 920 13.871 >>> 921 13.966 >>> 922 14.762 >>> 923 14.325 >>> 924 14.077 >>> 925 14.713 >>> 926 14.081 >>> 927 14.218 >>> 928 13.793 >>> 929 14.151 >>> 930 14.985 >>> 931 13.599 >>> 932 14.663 >>> 933 14.110 >>> 934 14.968 >>> 935 14.391 >>> 936 15.484 >>> 937 15.554 >>> 938 14.977 >>> 939 15.303 >>> 940 15.179 >>> 941 15.591 >>> 942 14.737 >>> 943 14.007 >>> 944 14.865 >>> 945 14.449 >>> 946 14.350 >>> 947 15.096 >>> 948 15.257 >>> 949 15.789 >>> 950 15.303 >>> 951 15.513 >>> 952 16.111 >>> 953 15.723 >>> 954 15.459 >>> 955 14.015 >>> 956 13.083 >>> 957 13.850 >>> 958 14.069 >>> 959 13.772 >>> 960 14.873 >>> 961 14.692 >>> 962 14.923 >>> 963 14.527 >>> 964 15.034 >>> 965 14.688 >>> 966 14.486 >>> 967 14.444 >>> 968 14.436 >>> 969 13.776 >>> 970 13.809 >>> 971 14.391 >>> 972 13.487 >>> 973 13.995 >>> 974 14.061 >>> 975 14.321 >>> 976 14.882 >>> 977 14.226 >>> 978 14.977 >>> 979 15.447 >>> 980 14.424 >>> 981 14.923 >>> 982 14.180 >>> 983 15.484 >>> 984 13.487 >>> 985 14.168 >>> 986 14.176 >> > 987 15.699 >>> 988 15.187 >>> 989 16.305 >>> 990 14.845 >>> 991 14.647 >>> 992 15.765 >>> 993 14.754 >>> 994 14.271 >>> 995 13.623 >>> 996 14.300 >>> 997 13.937 >>> 998 14.040 >>> 999 14.011 >>> 1000 12.976 >>> 1001 13.904 >>> 1002 13.500 >>> 1003 13.586 >>> 1004 14.090 >>> 1005 13.809 >>> 1006 13.413 >>> 1007 13.318 >>> 1008 13.892 >>> 1009 14.151 >>> 1010 14.391 >>> 1011 13.793 >>> 1012 14.626 >>> 1013 13.755 >>> 1014 13.838 >>> 1015 13.017 >> > 1016 13.083 >>> 1017 13.549 >>> 1018 13.471 >>> 1019 13.087 >>> 1020 13.458 >>> 1021 13.203 >>> 1022 14.090 >>> 1023 13.574 >>> 1024 13.755 >>> 1025 13.826 >>> 1026 13.137 >>> 1027 13.194 >>> 1028 14.036 >>> 1029 13.091 >>> 1030 13.768 >>> 1031 13.813 >>> 1032 13.846 >>> 1033 13.871 >>> 1034 14.255 >>> 1035 14.370 >>> 1036 13.805 >>> 1037 14.576 >>> 1038 13.504 >>> 1039 13.867 >>> 1040 14.927 >>> 1041 14.420 >>> 1042 15.661 >>> 1043 15.484 >>> 1044 15.595 >>> 1045 14.741 >>> 1046 13.644 >>> 1047 14.271 >>> 1048 14.288 >>> 1049 13.661 >>> 1050 13.665 >>> 1051 13.298 >>> 1052 14.003 >>> 1053 13.826 >>> 1054 13.788 >>> 1055 13.768 >>> 1056 12.976 >>> 1057 13.397 >>> 1058 13.529 >>> 1059 13.549 >>> 1060 13.846 >>> 1061 14.032 >>> 1062 14.820 >>> 1063 13.962 >>> 1064 14.279 >>> 1065 14.151 >>> 1066 14.358 >>> 1067 14.131 >>> 1068 13.652 >>> 1069 13.941 >>> 1070 14.007 >>> 1071 14.403 >>> 1072 13.764 > >> 1073 13.982 >>> 1074 13.846 >>> 1075 13.830 >>> 1076 13.450 >>> 1077 13.632 >>> 1078 13.265 >>> 1079 13.331 >>> 1080 14.267 >>> 1081 13.644 >>> 1082 13.549 >>> 1083 13.557 >>> 1084 13.549 >>> 1085 14.725 >>> 1086 13.479 >>> 1087 12.848 >>> 1088 12.559 >>> 1089 12.926 >>> 1090 13.793 >>> 1091 14.387 >>> 1092 14.531 >>> 1093 14.114 >>> 1094 14.754 >>> 1095 14.688 >>> 1096 14.845 >>> 1097 14.729 >>> 1098 15.059 >>> 1099 15.059 >>> 1100 15.055 >>> 1101 16.057 >>> 1102 15.208 >>> 1103 15.492 >>> 1104 14.519 >>> 1105 14.741 > >> 1106 14.151 >>> 1107 15.005 >>> 1108 13.640 >>> 1109 13.652 >>> 1110 13.566 >>> 1111 13.978 >>> 1112 14.424 >>> 1113 14.180 >>> 1114 14.931 >>> 1115 14.601 >>> 1116 14.403 >>> 1117 14.391 >>> 1118 14.981 >>> 1119 15.125 >>> 1120 13.817 >>> 1121 12.897 >>> 1122 13.863 >>> 1123 14.271 >>> 1124 14.857 >>> 1125 14.882 >>> 1126 14.762 >>> 1127 14.548 >>> 1128 14.403 >>> 1129 14.667 >>> 1130 14.572 >>> 1131 14.057 >>> 1132 14.556 >>> 1133 15.018 >>> 1134 13.892 >>> 1135 13.995 >>> 1136 13.982 >>> 1137 14.853 >>> 1138 14.779 >>> 1139 15.129 >>> 1140 15.117 >>> 1141 14.849 >>> 1142 15.228 >>> 1143 15.216 >>> 1144 15.030 >>> 1145 14.428 >>> 1146 15.063 >>> 1147 15.216 >>> 1148 15.043 >>> 1149 15.034 >>> 1150 14.370 >>> 1151 15.096 >>> 1152 15.410 >>> 1153 15.719 >>> 1154 16.577 >>> 1155 15.769 >>> 1156 15.364 >>> 1157 15.855 >>> 1158 15.422 >>> 1159 14.515 >>> 1160 15.810 >>> 1161 15.628 >>> 1162 15.402 >>> 1163 15.092 >>> 1164 15.298 >>> 1165 14.865 >>> 1166 14.882 >>> 1167 15.274 >>> 1168 14.605 >>> 1169 14.746 >>> 1170 15.472 >>> 1171 15.509 >>> 1172 15.018 >>> 1173 15.369 >>> 1174 15.084 >>> 1175 15.855 >>> 1176 14.795 >>> 1177 15.571 >>> 1178 14.255 >>> 1179 14.510 >>> 1180 14.865 >>> 1181 14.036 >>> 1182 14.688 >>> 1183 14.713 >>> 1184 14.519 >>> 1185 14.255 >>> 1186 15.204 >>> 1187 14.461 >>> 1188 15.476 >>> 1189 14.882 >>> 1190 15.005 >>> 1191 14.453 >>> 1192 14.729 >>> 1193 15.265 >>> 1194 14.444 >>> 1195 14.696 >>> 1196 15.793 >>> 1197 14.581 >>> 1198 15.014 >>> 1199 14.539 >>> 1200 14.044 >>> 1201 14.733 >>> 1202 14.853 >>> 1203 15.298 >>> 1204 13.772 >>> 1205 13.991 >>> 1206 14.651 >>> 1207 14.836 >>> 1208 14.440 >>> 1209 15.162 >>> 1210 14.766 >>> 1211 15.010 >>> 1212 15.356 >>> 1213 14.787 >>> 1214 15.645 >>> 1215 15.435 >>> 1216 15.043 >>> 1217 15.063 >>> 1218 14.151 >>> 1219 15.397 >>> 1220 15.154 >>> 1221 15.892 >>> 1222 15.488 >>> 1223 15.938 >>> 1224 15.525 >>> 1225 15.591 >>> 1226 14.589 >>> 1227 15.496 >>> 1228 15.963 >>> 1229 14.502 >>> 1230 14.457 >>> 1231 15.468 >>> 1232 14.985 >>> 1233 15.282 >>> 1234 14.989 >>> 1235 15.237 >>> 1236 15.711 >>> 1237 15.888 >>> 1238 14.259 >>> 1239 14.560 >>> 1240 15.711 >>> 1241 15.195 >>> 1242 15.484 >>> 1243 15.166 >> > 1244 16.020 >>> 1245 16.454 >>> 1246 15.480 >>> 1247 15.492 >>> 1248 16.528 >>> 1249 15.150 >>> 1250 14.436 >>> 1251 14.878 >>> 1252 15.723 >>> 1253 15.043 >>> 1254 15.121 >>> 1255 14.845 >>> 1256 14.807 >>> 1257 14.482 >>> 1258 14.585 >>> 1259 15.307 >>> 1260 15.100 >>> 1261 14.354 >>> 1262 13.995 >>> 1263 14.106 >>> 1264 14.403 >>> 1265 14.754 >>> 1266 14.581 >>> 1267 14.799 >>> 1268 14.378 >>> 1269 14.671 >>> 1270 14.193 >>> 1271 14.387 >>> 1272 14.453 >> > 1273 14.510 >>> 1274 15.187 >>> 1275 15.393 >>> 1276 14.498 >>> 1277 14.560 >>> 1278 15.022 >>> 1279 14.498 >>> 1280 14.725 >>> 1281 13.549 >>> 1282 14.977 >>> 1283 14.065 >>> 1284 14.024 >>> 1285 13.603 >>> 1286 15.220 >>> 1287 15.080 >>> 1288 14.898 >>> 1289 14.774 >>> 1290 15.542 >>> 1291 15.212 >>> 1292 14.267 >>> 1293 14.692 >>> 1294 13.644 >>> 1295 14.222 >>> 1296 15.038 >>> 1297 14.721 >>> 1298 15.682 >>> 1299 13.896 >>> 1300 14.766 > >> 1301 14.836 >>> 1302 14.370 >>> 1303 14.812 >>> 1304 14.812 >>> 1305 13.673 >>> 1306 14.036 >>> 1307 13.929 >>> 1308 14.807 >>> 1309 14.114 >>> 1310 13.446 >>> 1311 13.368 >>> 1312 14.168 >>> 1313 14.989 >>> 1314 14.292 >>> 1315 14.985 >>> 1316 14.123 >>> 1317 14.321 >>> 1318 13.966 >>> 1319 14.325 >>> 1320 14.647 >>> 1321 14.622 >>> 1322 14.279 >>> 1323 14.510 >>> 1324 13.689 >>> 1325 13.450 >>> 1326 14.197 >>> 1327 13.867 >>> 1328 14.205 >>> 1329 14.779 >>> 1330 14.350 >>> 1331 14.729 >>> 1332 13.479 >>> 1333 13.974 > >> 1334 14.453 >>> 1335 14.535 >>> 1336 15.402 >>> 1337 14.424 >>> 1338 14.399 >>> 1339 14.906 >>> 1340 15.430 >>> 1341 14.531 >>> 1342 15.785 >>> 1343 15.513 >>> 1344 15.220 >>> 1345 15.352 >>> 1346 15.443 >>> 1347 15.410 >>> 1348 15.777 >>> 1349 14.902 >>> 1350 14.576 >>> 1351 14.605 >>> 1352 14.168 >>> 1353 14.601 >>> 1354 15.414 >>> 1355 14.300 >>> 1356 14.630 >>> 1357 15.170 >>> 1358 14.919 >>> 1359 14.688 >>> 1360 14.081 >>> 1361 14.799 >>> 1362 14.581 >>> 1363 15.133 >>> 1364 13.838 >>> 1365 14.708 >>> 1366 13.149 >>> 1367 13.281 >>> 1368 13.760 >>> 1369 14.123 >>> 1370 13.314 >>> 1371 14.523 >>> 1372 14.267 >>> 1373 14.226 >>> 1374 14.044 >>> 1375 14.271 >>> 1376 15.307 >>> 1377 14.684 >>> 1378 14.168 >>> 1379 14.473 >>> 1380 13.578 >>> 1381 13.586 >>> 1382 13.999 >>> 1383 13.991 >>> 1384 13.710 >>> 1385 14.411 >>> 1386 13.867 >>> 1387 14.255 >>> 1388 13.611 >>> 1389 13.974 >>> 1390 13.916 >>> 1391 13.615 >>> 1392 14.440 >>> 1393 14.787 >>> 1394 15.880 >>> 1395 16.297 >>> 1396 16.289 >>> 1397 15.170 >>> 1398 16.082 >>> 1399 15.463 >>> 1400 14.366 >>> 1401 14.758 >>> 1402 14.902 >>> 1403 14.568 >>> 1404 15.158 >>> 1405 15.579 >>> 1406 13.966 >>> 1407 13.970 >>> 1408 13.772 >>> 1409 14.523 >>> 1410 14.498 >>> 1411 14.791 >>> 1412 14.007 >>> 1413 15.818 >>> 1414 13.974 >>> 1415 13.776 >>> 1416 13.760 >>> 1417 14.407 >>> 1418 14.498 >>> 1419 14.515 >>> 1420 14.341 >>> 1421 14.374 >>> 1422 13.677 >>> 1423 14.354 >>> 1424 13.223 >>> 1425 13.801 >>> 1426 14.560 >>> 1427 14.374 >>> 1428 14.494 >>> 1429 15.051 >>> 1430 14.836 >>> 1431 13.999 >>> 1432 14.341 >>> 1433 14.865 >>> 1434 15.063 >>> 1435 15.311 >>> 1436 15.765 >>> 1437 15.789 >>> 1438 15.204 >>> 1439 15.298 >>> 1440 15.257 >>> 1441 15.443 >>> 1442 14.737 >>> 1443 15.385 >>> 1444 15.723 >>> 1445 14.717 >>> 1446 15.088 >>> 1447 15.253 >>> 1448 14.477 >>> 1449 16.004 >>> 1450 14.581 >>> 1451 14.449 >>> 1452 14.993 >>> 1453 14.151 >>> 1454 14.556 >>> 1455 14.366 >>> 1456 14.601 >>> 1457 13.813 >>> 1458 14.242 >>> 1459 15.047 >>> 1460 14.919 >>> 1461 14.300 >>> 1462 15.010 >>> 1463 14.139 >>> 1464 15.001 >>> 1465 14.873 >>> 1466 15.406 >>> 1467 14.399 >>> 1468 14.671 >>> 1469 15.092 >>> 1470 14.337 >>> 1471 14.948 >>> 1472 15.047 >>> 1473 14.523 >>> 1474 14.680 >>> 1475 14.395 >>> 1476 15.661 >>> 1477 15.158 >>> 1478 15.414 >>> 1479 15.641 >>> 1480 15.909 >>> 1481 15.748 >>> 1482 14.708 >>> 1483 14.981 >>> 1484 14.659 >>> 1485 15.113 >>> 1486 14.754 >>> 1487 15.740 >>> 1488 15.327 >>> 1489 15.125 >>> 1490 15.026 >>> 1491 15.567 >>> 1492 15.265 >>> 1493 15.996 >>> 1494 16.326 >>> 1495 14.915 >>> 1496 15.831 >>> 1497 14.845 >>> 1498 15.670 >>> 1499 16.156 >>> 1500 15.864 >> > 1501 15.831 >>> 1502 16.581 >>> 1503 15.212 >>> 1504 15.534 >>> 1505 15.270 >>> 1506 15.492 >>> 1507 15.633 >>> 1508 14.420 >>> 1509 15.723 >>> 1510 14.816 >>> 1511 15.282 >>> 1512 15.641 >>> 1513 14.655 >>> 1514 14.510 >>> 1515 13.508 >>> 1516 14.172 >>> 1517 14.251 >>> 1518 13.628 >>> 1519 13.698 >>> 1520 13.405 >>> 1521 13.920 >>> 1522 13.974 >>> 1523 13.978 >>> 1524 14.238 >>> 1525 14.003 >>> 1526 13.298 >>> 1527 13.694 >>> 1528 15.005 > >> 1529 14.218 >> > 1530 14.110 >>> 1531 14.593 >>> 1532 13.916 >>> 1533 14.510 >>> 1534 14.057 >>> 1535 14.048 >>> 1536 13.673 >>> 1537 14.477 >>> 1538 14.090 >>> 1539 14.300 >>> 1540 14.374 >>> 1541 14.387 >>> 1542 14.085 >>> 1543 14.184 >>> 1544 14.597 >>> 1545 14.783 >>> 1546 15.348 >>> 1547 15.859 >>> 1548 15.835 >>> 1549 14.729 >>> 1550 15.451 >>> 1551 15.204 >>> 1552 15.022 >>> 1553 15.352 >>> 1554 14.251 >>> 1555 14.135 >>> 1556 14.609 >>> 1557 14.572 >>> 1558 15.224 >>> 1559 14.688 >>> 1560 14.618 >>> 1561 15.179 > >> 1562 14.399 >>> 1563 14.873 >>> 1564 13.652 >>> 1565 13.958 >>> 1566 15.595 >>> 1567 14.898 >>> 1568 13.595 >>> 1569 14.019 >>> 1570 15.030 >>> 1571 15.228 >>> 1572 15.241 >>> 1573 16.355 >>> 1574 14.865 >>> 1575 14.923 >>> 1576 15.542 >>> 1577 15.162 >>> 1578 14.956 >>> 1579 15.657 >>> 1580 15.208 >>> 1581 15.208 >>> 1582 15.166 >>> 1583 14.473 >>> 1584 14.052 >>> 1585 14.213 >>> 1586 14.568 >>> 1587 14.762 >>> 1588 14.288 >>> 1589 14.069 >>> 1590 13.929 >>> 1591 13.479 >>> 1592 14.044 >>> 1593 14.267 >>> 1594 14.288 >>> 1595 14.609 >>> 1596 14.362 >>> 1597 13.846 >>> 1598 14.098 >>> 1599 14.147 >>> 1600 14.783 >>> 1601 13.995 >>> 1602 13.925 >>> 1603 13.999 >>> 1604 14.688 >>> 1605 13.892 >>> 1606 15.410 >>> 1607 14.325 >>> 1608 15.241 >>> 1609 15.104 >>> 1610 14.531 >>> 1611 15.958 >>> 1612 14.597 >>> 1613 14.337 >>> 1614 14.647 >>> 1615 13.318 >>> 1616 14.424 >>> 1617 13.768 >>> 1618 14.779 >>> 1619 14.886 >>> 1620 14.065 >>> 1621 14.085 >>> 1622 14.626 >>> 1623 13.912 >>> 1624 13.487 >>> 1625 14.292 >>> 1626 13.075 >>> 1627 13.871 >>> 1628 13.850 >>> 1629 13.755 >>> 1630 14.680 >>> 1631 14.048 >>> 1632 14.601 >>> 1633 15.752 >>> 1634 14.420 >>> 1635 14.085 >>> 1636 14.230 >>> 1637 15.426 >>> 1638 16.322 >>> 1639 14.762 >>> 1640 14.882 >>> 1641 14.985 >>> 1642 14.931 >>> 1643 15.484 >>> 1644 15.843 >>> 1645 14.861 >>> 1646 14.284 >>> 1647 14.494 >>> 1648 14.935 >>> 1649 13.966 >>> 1650 14.296 >>> 1651 13.768 >>> 1652 15.001 >>> 1653 14.944 >>> 1654 15.418 >>> 1655 15.146 >>> 1656 14.915 >>> 1657 14.803 >>> 1658 14.638 >>> 1659 14.630 >>> 1660 14.052 >>> 1661 13.702 >>> 1662 14.081 >>> 1663 14.312 >>> 1664 14.197 >>> 1665 13.780 >>> 1666 14.292 >>> 1667 14.634 >>> 1668 13.768 >>> 1669 14.671 >>> 1670 14.246 >>> 1671 14.812 >>> 1672 15.216 >>> 1673 15.810 >>> 1674 14.869 >>> 1675 16.148 >>> 1676 14.977 >>> 1677 14.923 >>> 1678 15.488 >>> 1679 14.956 >>> 1680 14.098 >>> 1681 14.523 >>> 1682 15.327 >>> 1683 15.666 >>> 1684 15.554 >>> 1685 15.270 >>> 1686 15.492 >>> 1687 15.459 >>> 1688 14.754 >>> 1689 14.741 >>> 1690 14.700 >>> 1691 14.906 >>> 1692 13.904 >>> 1693 14.527 >>> 1694 15.063 >>> 1695 14.399 >>> 1696 15.096 >>> 1697 15.360 >>> 1698 15.694 >>> 1699 15.249 >>> 1700 14.779 >>> 1701 14.609 >>> 1702 15.336 >>> 1703 15.121 >>> 1704 15.154 >>> 1705 15.212 >>> 1706 14.750 >>> 1707 15.472 >>> 1708 14.164 >>> 1709 13.665 >>> 1710 14.213 >>> 1711 14.741 >>> 1712 15.521 >>> 1713 15.410 >>> 1714 14.519 >>> 1715 15.154 >>> 1716 14.597 >>> 1717 15.212 >>> 1718 14.688 >>> 1719 13.962 >>> 1720 15.109 >>> 1721 15.839 >>> 1722 15.765 >>> 1723 15.001 >>> 1724 15.389 >>> 1725 15.088 >>> 1726 14.655 >>> 1727 14.312 >>> 1728 14.824 >>> 1729 14.981 >>> 1730 13.640 >>> 1731 15.043 >>> 1732 13.953 >>> 1733 13.681 >>> 1734 14.036 >>> 1735 13.937 >>> 1736 14.832 >>> 1737 14.807 >>> 1738 14.325 >>> 1739 14.337 >>> 1740 14.680 >>> 1741 14.779 >>> 1742 14.255 >>> 1743 14.205 >>> 1744 14.024 >>> 1745 14.069 >>> 1746 15.216 >>> 1747 15.455 >>> 1748 15.447 >>> 1749 15.851 >>> 1750 15.253 >>> 1751 14.626 >>> 1752 15.294 >>> 1753 15.744 >>> 1754 15.158 >>> 1755 14.750 >>> 1756 15.319 > >> 1757 15.059 >> > 1758 15.195 >>> 1759 14.725 >>> 1760 14.609 >>> 1761 14.869 >>> 1762 15.212 >>> 1763 15.505 >>> 1764 14.634 >>> 1765 15.175 >>> 1766 14.552 >>> 1767 15.109 >>> 1768 14.312 >>> 1769 14.090 >>> 1770 14.246 >>> 1771 14.127 >>> 1772 14.667 >>> 1773 14.312 >>> 1774 14.659 >>> 1775 14.296 >>> 1776 14.527 >>> 1777 14.069 >>> 1778 15.005 >>> 1779 14.832 >>> 1780 15.146 >>> 1781 14.865 >>> 1782 14.102 >>> 1783 13.735 >>> 1784 14.510 >>> 1785 14.052 >>> 1786 14.795 >> > 1787 15.455 >>> 1788 15.298 >>> 1789 14.325 > >> 1790 14.927 >>> 1791 14.230 >>> 1792 14.230 >>> 1793 14.836 >>> 1794 15.637 >>> 1795 15.022 >>> 1796 14.473 >>> 1797 14.968 >>> 1798 14.028 >>> 1799 13.463 >>> 1800 14.151 >>> 1801 15.187 >>> 1802 15.290 >>> 1803 15.732 >>> 1804 14.985 >>> 1805 15.224 >>> 1806 16.251 >>> 1807 13.289 >>> 1808 14.420 >>> 1809 14.696 >>> 1810 14.568 >>> 1811 15.802 >>> 1812 16.082 >>> 1813 16.416 >>> 1814 16.082 >>> 1815 16.309 >>> 1816 15.967 >>> 1817 16.247 >>> 1818 15.208 >>> 1819 15.587 >>> 1820 15.323 >>> 1821 15.505 >>> 1822 14.812 >>> 1823 15.298 >>> 1824 15.022 >>> 1825 15.179 >>> 1826 15.967 >>> 1827 14.040 >>> 1828 14.449 >>> 1829 14.242 >>> 1830 14.548 >>> 1831 14.378 >>> 1832 15.137 >>> 1833 13.496 >>> 1834 14.081 >>> 1835 15.228 >>> 1836 14.700 >>> 1837 14.432 >>> 1838 14.927 >>> 1839 14.482 >>> 1840 15.175 >>> 1841 14.296 >>> 1842 14.762 >>> 1843 14.350 >>> 1844 14.770 >>> 1845 15.026 >>> 1846 14.688 >>> 1847 14.944 >>> 1848 15.088 >>> 1849 14.774 >>> 1850 14.865 >>> 1851 14.787 >>> 1852 14.527 >>> 1853 14.502 >>> 1854 15.183 >>> 1855 14.828 >>> 1856 15.270 >>> 1857 14.436 >>> 1858 14.721 >>> 1859 14.539 >>> 1860 14.407 >>> 1861 14.832 >>> 1862 14.271 >>> 1863 14.490 >>> 1864 13.953 >>> 1865 15.290 >>> 1866 14.473 >>> 1867 15.414 >>> 1868 14.440 >>> 1869 15.129 >>> 1870 15.022 >>> 1871 15.468 >>> 1872 14.993 >>> 1873 14.890 >>> 1874 14.638 >>> 1875 14.898 >>> 1876 14.993 >>> 1877 14.366 >>> 1878 14.333 >>> 1879 13.454 >>> 1880 15.369 >>> 1881 15.109 >>> 1882 15.187 >>> 1883 15.278 >>> 1884 14.308 >>> 1885 15.026 >>> 1886 15.385 >>> 1887 15.183 >>> 1888 14.127 >>> 1889 14.985 >>> 1890 15.480 >>> 1891 14.717 >>> 1892 15.773 >>> 1893 14.807 >>> 1894 15.451 >>> 1895 15.179 >>> 1896 13.780 >>> 1897 14.531 >>> 1898 13.912 >>> 1899 14.354 >>> 1900 15.290 >>> 1901 15.752 >>> 1902 14.886 >>> 1903 15.216 >>> 1904 15.938 >>> 1905 15.208 >>> 1906 14.279 >>> 1907 14.923 >>> 1908 15.022 >>> 1909 15.501 >>> 1910 15.633 >>> 1911 15.212 >>> 1912 13.648 >>> 1913 14.329 >>> 1914 15.389 >>> 1915 14.704 >>> 1916 15.983 >>> 1917 14.779 >>> 1918 14.432 >>> 1919 14.024 >>> 1920 14.040 >>> 1921 14.622 >>> 1922 15.315 >>> 1923 14.560 >>> 1924 15.835 >>> 1925 14.927 >>> 1926 14.812 >>> 1927 15.220 >>> 1928 16.433 >>> 1929 14.506 >>> 1930 14.535 >>> 1931 14.073 >>> 1932 14.440 >>> 1933 15.406 >>> 1934 14.708 >>> 1935 15.026 >>> 1936 14.106 >>> 1937 13.372 >>> 1938 14.663 >>> 1939 13.842 >>> 1940 13.879 >>> 1941 14.725 >>> 1942 14.510 >>> 1943 14.337 >>> 1944 15.133 >>> 1945 14.189 >>> 1946 14.048 >>> 1947 14.098 >>> 1948 14.923 >>> 1949 14.733 >>> 1950 14.581 >>> 1951 15.121 >>> 1952 14.073 >>> 1953 14.572 >>> 1954 14.106 >>> 1955 14.457 >>> 1956 14.849 >>> 1957 14.626 >>> 1958 15.374 >>> 1959 15.183 >>> 1960 14.970 >>> 1961 15.140 >>> 1962 15.289 >>> 1963 14.991 >>> 1964 14.395 >>> 1965 14.991 >>> 1966 15.587 >>> 1967 14.948 >>> 1968 14.948 >>> 1969 14.629 >>> 1970 15.779 >>> 1971 16.354 >>> 1972 15.247 >>> 1973 14.671 >>> 1974 15.353 >>> 1975 16.141 >>> 1976 14.586 >>> 1977 14.863 >>> 1978 15.332 >>> 1979 14.948 >>> 1980 14.906 >>> 1981 15.481 >>> 1982 14.991 >>> 1983 14.117 >>> 1984 15.353 > >> 1985 15.225 >>> 1986 15.587 >>> 1987 15.140 >>> 1988 14.863 >>> 1989 16.098 >>> 1990 15.417 >>> 1991 14.991 >>> 1992 14.096 >>> 1993 14.160 >>> 1994 15.183 >>> 1995 15.119 >>> 1996 15.630 >>> 1997 14.927 >>> 1998 15.417 >>> 1999 16.354 >>> >>>On Jul 17, 2005, at 10:40 PM, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>> >>>>Thanks Ricardo and Ed! I personally am not a >>>>big fan of the Jones and Mann SH recon. It is >>>>based on so little. On the other hand, it is in >>>>the literature. So, I leave it up to you and >> >>Keith to decide - perhaps Eystein can weigh in >>>>too. > >>> >>>>I do, however, think it would be really helpful >>>>to included the borehole data (see prev. >>>>emails) - either as a single SH curve, or >>>>(probably better) two regional curves >>>>(Australia and S. Africa). Is there a reason >>>>this is not a good idea? Can't complain about >>>>snow bias down there... >>>> >>>>Thanks again - I look forward to seeing the >>>>next draft and figure - complete w/ borehole I >> >>hope. >>>> >>>>thx, Peck >>>> >>>>>Hi Keith, >>>>> >>>>>Please, find attached my last version of the SH temp. As you know, Ed >>Cook >>>>>returned my original version of the SH with minor comments. Overall, he >>>>>agreed with the text. Still I am waiting from him the Oroco Swamp data >to >>>>>include in the Figure, which first draft I sent you more than a month >>ago. >>>>> >>>>>In the last version I have included a first paragraph referring to the >>Jones >>>>>and Mann (2003) temperature reconstruction for the SH. At that time we >>have >>>>>to decide if we want to have the hemispheric (Jones and Mann) and the >>>>>regional views (Tasmania, New Zealand, Patagonia, maybe include >>Antarctica >>>>>(Ommem et al. 2005)), or just one of them. If we decide to stay with the >>>>>hemispheric view, we should include Jones and Mann reconstruction at the >>>>>bottom of one of your figures. In cases that we decide to maintain both >>>>>hemispheric and regional views, we should include Jones and Mann at the >>>>>bottom of my figure. Please, could you check with Peck and Eystein to >>see >>>>>the best way to proceed? Thanks, >>>>> >>>>>Ricardo >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>----- Original Message ----- >>>>>From: "Keith Briffa" >>>>>To: ; "Eystein Jansen" >>>>>Cc: ; "Ed Cook" >>>>>Sent: Friday, July 15, 2005 11:01 AM >>>>>Subject: the regional section and MWP Figure >>>>> >>>>>> Guys >>>>>> still need the SH temp bit from Ricardo/ED to edit and am exploring >>the >>>>>MWP >>>>>> Figure - but the concept still is unclear to me - but we agreed to >do >>a >>>>>> plot like Tom's . The regional section is still a worry - I am >happy >>to >>>>>> very briefly edit the section on NAO (possibly incorporate the ENSO >>>>>stuff ) >>>>>> but my understanding is that this section is best done (to >incorporate >>>>>also >>>>>> the regional moisture work of Ed ) by Ricardo /Ed with input my >Peck. >>This >>>>>> is still my opinion. I also would appreciate feedback re the >regional >>>>>> forcing section that I think we may have to drop - but perhaps not. >>>>>> Therefore I ask that when i get the SH temp stuff I will incorporate >>it >>>>>but >>>>>> that you guys (Peck, Ricardo, Ed and Eystein interacting over the >>North >>>>>> Atlantic bit) first review and redo the regional section . >>>>>> It is important to get feedback from Henry re the borehole stuff and >>>>>> involve Tom in the debate with all of us , of the value of the >Figure >>. In >>>>>> meantime , will experiment with the Figure and review existing text >>and >>>>>bullets >>>>>> Keith >>>>>> >>>>>> Keith >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>>>> >>>>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>>>> >>>>>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Southern >>>>>hemisphere2.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0008A6E0) >>>> >>>> >>>>-- >>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck > >>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>>> >>>>Mail and Fedex Address: >>>> >>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>>University of Arizona >>>>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>>> >>>================================== >>>Dr. Edward R. Cook >>>Doherty Senior Scholar and >>>Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory >>>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory >>>Palisades, New York 10964 USA > >>Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu >>>Phone: 845-365-8618 >>>Fax: 845-365-8152 >>>================================== >> >> >>-- >>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >>Mail and Fedex Address: >> >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>University of Arizona >>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >> >>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:SHregteml 1.JPG (JPEG/«IC») (0008ADC3) > > >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 1688. 2005-07-20 16:22:16 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 16:22:16 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on Section 6.3 to: David Rind Dear David, I take from your response that you consider all models that parameterise an important first-order process "conceptual models". I can live with that - but then there are only conceptual climate models around. Any coupled climate GCM that I know of parameterises oceanic convection (and in a very crude way), hence it is a conceptual model in your terms, and there is no fundamental distinction of category between your model and our model. To me the scientific question is not whether an important process is parameterised (many are in GCMs) - it is how well this parameterisation works, for the task at hand. We have tested the feedbacks in great detail (e.g., the cloud, water vapour, lapse rate and snow/ice albedo feedbacks for 2xCO2) in our model and they perform quantitatively within the range simulated by various GCMs. The same is true for many other diagnostics - the model has taken part in model intercomparisons with GCMs and always falls within the range of different GCMs, in a quantitative way. To repeat that point, the quantitative differences between different GCMs are larger than the typical difference between our model and a GCM. So I see no basis for your claim that this model can only "suggest orders of magnitude". That's just plain wrong from all the evidence that I have seen (a lot). If you have concrete evidence to the contrary, other than just knowing one person who happens to agree with you, please come forward with it. Stefan -- To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4022. 2005-07-20 16:58:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: p.jones@uea.ac.uk date: Wed Jul 20 16:58:40 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: crowley to: Keith Briffa , Tom Wigley Hi Tom, as a followup to Keith's email, it might be quite likely that one of the series you plot is replaced by the instrumental record after 1960, because the file from Crowley and Lowery that is available at the WDC-Paleoclimate contains such a record. The header states: ---------------------------------------- Crowley and Lowery 2000 (Ambio 29, 51) Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction Modified as published in Crowley 2000 (Science v289 p.270, 14 July 2000) Data from Fig. 1, Crowley 2000: Decadally smoothed time series of Crowley-Lowery reconstruction spliced into smoothed Jones et al instrumental record after 1860 (labeled CL2.Jns11), and a slight modification (labeled CL2) of the original Crowley and Lowery reconstruction to 1965. ---------------------------------------- The URL of this file is: [1]ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/gcmoutput/crowley2000/crowley_lowery2000_nht.txt and it is listed here: [2]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html Cheers Tim At 12:22 18/07/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: as a first quick response - the Crowley numbers came from his paper with Lowery. I seem to remember that there were 2 versions of the composite that he produced - certainly we used the data that did not include Sargasso and Michigan site data. I presume the other (from the CRU web site) were the data used by Phil and Mike Mann that they got from him (where exactly did you pick then up from?)and could be the other data set (with those sites included). It seems odd that the values are so high in the recent period of this series and could conceivably be instrumental data , but would have to check. The scaling of the data we used to produce the Crowley curve that formed one of the lines in our spaghetti diagram (that we put on the web site under my name and made available to NGDC), was based on taking the unscaled composite he sent and re-calibrating against April - Sept. average for land North of 20 degrees Lat., and repeating his somewhat bazaar calibration procedure (which deliberately omitted the data between 1900-1920 that did not fit with the instrumental data (remember his data are also decadal smoothed values). In fact , as we were using summer data we calibrated over 1881-1900 (avoiding the high early decades that I still believe are biased in summer) and 1920 - 1960 , whereas he used 1856-1880 and 1920-1965. Of the precise details might differ - but the crux of the matter is that I suspect one of the Figures you show may have instrumental data in the recent period - but not ours. If you say exactly where these series came from I can ask Tim (who will have done the calibrations) to check. As for the second question , the QR data are averaged ring widths from relatively few site chronologies in the high north (mostly N.Eurasia - Scandinavia,Yamal,Taimyr), though with a few other site data added in as stated. The 2001 data are the MXD data from near 400 sites and provide the best interannual to multidecadal indication of summer temps for land areas north of 20 degrees than any of the true proxy (ie not including instrumental ) data. No idea what the correlation over the common 600 year period is - but I have never said that the ring width is anything other than summer temps for the area it covers . Keith At 20:38 15/07/2005, you wrote: Keith, Look at the attached. Can you explain to me why these plots differ -- particularly after 1880? Could you also explain why the Briffa data in QR 2000 are so poorly correlated with the Briffa 2001 data? I think I know the answers, but I want an independent and spontaneous answer from you. Thanks, Tom. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 226. 2005-07-20 18:22:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 18:22:47 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Comments on Section 6.3 to: David Rind Dear David, not sure this is a helpful discussion to get the AR4 on track... So convection is not a "zeroth and first order processes that dominate the problem", when GCMs look at ocean circulation changes? As an oceanographer, I would argue that it is, and it is parameterised in any coupled climate model I know of, not calculated from first-order principles. I suspect the same is true for clouds in GCMs. Our model certainly parameterises more processes than a GCM - there is indeed a price to pay for speed. But that remains a difference of degree, not a fundamental one. Note also that the parameterisations we use mostly have a sound theoretical basis, they are not some arbitrary tunable things. It is not a scientific argument to refer me to other people who may have a bad opinion of the model (the reviewers of our 50+ papers obviously didn't), nor is it a scientific argument to compare me with climate sceptics. That does not help our working atmosphere. I suggest we close this discussion and simply agree that we disagree on this point; the topic of EMICS is covered well in other chapters, and there is no need to go deeply into this in our chapter. Stefan -- To reach me directly please use: rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3361. 2005-07-21 12:54:14 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 12:54:14 -0400 from: Tom Crowley subject: Re: MWP figure to: Tim Osborn Tim, we are getting close but there are a few items to discuss: 1) seven of the eight time series are from the Hegerl et al paper, now out for review in Nature 2) the eighth time series is from Brian Luckmans recent extension of the Alberta record to the 10th century - we used his original time series in the H et al paper because the comparisons between model and observations had been going on for a while, in fact before the new Luckman paper came out, and we did not want to switch horses in midstream by changing the composite - as you know the Luckman paper is either accepted or published in CD, so there is no problem changing that 3) although technically the time series are not the same they are very close, if you want me to do some comparisons I can, but I could not get to it until probably tuesday of next week - I don't particularly see any problem in makng such an addition 4) we cannot extend the time series back to 800 without dropping out something - the reason we start at 945 is that is the first year when all the records are available - if we go back to 800 we do so at the cost of dropping 2 or possibly even 3 records. as our Dark Ages reconstruction starting at 560 indicates (att.), the biggest warming between 800-1900 is in the late 10the century (960-995), we did not think we missing out on anything by starting at 945 rather than 800. I await your feedback on this increasingly intricate issue, tom Tim Osborn wrote: > Hi Tom, > > In Keith's email below, when he says "we use series that total to > Tom/Gabi composite", he doesn't mean that *our* mock up of the figure > uses these series, but that if the series shown in *your* draft figure > are the same as those used in the Hegerl/Crowley recon that is > currently submitted ("...a twice validated climate record...") then we > will go with *your* figure. It is fine then to include the "composite > series" and the instrumental data and a temperature scale. Our > previous concerns about these latter points were that it might be seen > as another new NH temperature reconstruction. But if in fact the > composite and its expression as a temperature are not a new NH T > recon, but are in fact identical to the published (submitted, at > least) Hegerl/Crowley NH T recon (which is already included in the > main intercomparison figure) then there's no problem. > > Does your figure equate to the new Hegerl/Crowley NH T recon? If so, > we should go with your MWP figure, though the CLAs want me to draw it > in the same style as the others and also cut the time period down to a > few centuries spanning the MWP. Keith suggests beginning in 800 or 850. > > Would it be possible therefore to send the data series you used for > your figure, but beginning in 800/850, so I can plot the figure in the > required form? > > Cheers > > Tim > > At 14:53 20/07/2005, Tom Crowley wrote: > >> Keith, if you can find more I see no problem - it seems that a lot of >> the data you used was via Cook and colleagues - I was unable to >> locate a full length record from Quebec in that time series, but >> maybe you are relying on something else - if so can I have it!? >> >> other suggestions: provide a more general label to sites - eg, >> mangazeyek (sp)/yamal could be listed as polar urals - taimyr >> central Siberia. >> >> China shoudl be relabeled as east Asia as it does include some >> information from Japan and the Tibetan Plateau (L. Thompson) and we >> don't want to get into some political to-do by calling Tibet "Chinese". >> >> that's all I can think of for present, good sailing, tom >> >> Keith Briffa wrote: >> >>> Hi all >>> think this is resolved now (virtually) - >>> >>> We use series that total to Tom/Gabi composite , and we can cite >>> this as an example of the scatter of regional records "in a typical >>> reconstruction". This avoids very difficult issue of what is the >>> best way to aggregate certain data sets - we are simply illustrating >>> the point with one published (by then) data set. >>> The issue of the composite is then not an issue either , because it >>> is not a new (unpublished) composite that we were concerned about - >>> though I still believe it is a distraction to put the composite in. >>> It would be best to use data from 800 or 850 at least , and go to >>> 1500 (?) and presumably normalise over the whole period of data >>> shown. OK? Even though you guys all wish to go with the reduced >>> period (ie not up the present) , but my own instinct is that this >>> might later come back to haunt us - but will take your lead. >>> I agree the look of the Figure should match the others. >>> So, if Tom will send the data sets (his regional curves) , Tim will >>> plot and send back asap for scrutiny. Thanks Tom and thanks for >>> your help with this - further comments on latest version of 6.5 >>> (last 2000 years) still welcome , though will be incorporating a few >>> changes in response to David and Fortunat input , and SH bit (from >>> Ricardo and Ed) still to go in and regional section to be revised >>> (after input from Peck et al.) >>> cheers >>> Keith >>> . >>> >>> >>> At 21:42 19/07/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>> >>>> Hi Keith and Tim: Just got off the phone with Eystein, and >>>> hopefully he will sleep ok knowing that we have a plan for the MWP >>>> fig and Tom... >>>> >>>> Please ask questions if we don't cover all the key points, but >>>> here's what we think: >>>> >>>> 1) the MWP fig should span the MWP only, and should emphasize >>>> variation in regional amplitude (we agree that we must be clear >>>> that this fig is not a reconstruction) - that is, it is best to use >>>> time series representing regions, assuming that the regional series >>>> do represent a region ok with one or more input series. We want to >>>> avoid a regional bias if we can - this is what got us into all the >>>> MWP misunderstanding in the first place, perhaps (e.g., nice MWP in >>>> Europe/Atlantic region - must be global) >>>> >>>> 2) If you guys could agree on the series and the interval, that'd >>>> be great. We agree it would be good to start before 1000 and end >>>> before the Renaissance (15th century?). If you want more feedback >>>> on these issues, we're happy to provide, but it seems logical that >>>> you pick series and intervals so that each series covers the entire >>>> interval selected. >>>> >>>> 3) Don't use the Chesapeak record - it is likely biased by salinity >>>> >>>> 4) We'd like Keith and Tim to draft the final figure so that it >>>> matches the look and style of the other two figs they have made. >>>> Hope this is doable. Tom, does Keith have all the data? Thanks for >>>> sending if not. >>>> >>>> 5) We agree that Tom should NOT be a CA given that he was >>>> officially one of the ZOD reviewers. Of course, this doesn't >>>> represent a real conflict, but we need to avoid even the appearance >>>> of conflict. We greatly appreciate all the feedback that Tom is >>>> providing! Is this plan ok w/ you Tom? We think you're cool with >>>> it, but just want to check one more time. >>>> >>>> That... it is. Please let us know if there are any more questions. >>>> Keith - feel free to try and get Eystein on his cell doing your >>>> work hours if you want quick feedback. Or we can do this by email - >>>> he's not in a very email friendly place right now, but the fishing >>>> appears to be ok. >>>> >>>> Again, thanks to you both for all the discussion and thought that >>>> has gone into this figure. >>>> >>>> Best, peck >>>> -- >>>> Jonathan T. Overpeck >>>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>> Professor, Department of Geosciences >>>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>>> >>>> Mail and Fedex Address: >>>> >>>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>>> University of Arizona >>>> Tucson, AZ 85721 >>>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>>> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>> Climatic Research Unit >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>> >>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>> >>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >> >> > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\CH.DA.jpg" 726. 2005-07-21 16:16:20 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith Briffa" , Jonathan Overpeck date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 16:16:20 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: NH Borehole Timeseries to: Jason Smerdon ,Henry Pollack Dear Henry and Jason, thanks for the NH borehole temperatures which you sent some weeks ago. The decision has now been made by the lead authors to also include a figure showing some local/regional Southern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions in the IPCC paleo chapter. It wouldn't be complete without some borehole inversions too! I have data from the Huang et al. (2000) analysis which I could add to the figure, but thought I'd first check whether you have either an SH series, or series for southern Africa and Australia, that you would prefer to be used (perhaps with gridding and weighting before averaging, and/or with the zero point adjusted in the same way that you did for the NH)? Please let me have your views on this, as well as suitable time series if you have them. Cheers Tim At 18:53 13/06/2005, Henry Pollack wrote: >Hi Tim, > >Attached is the Northern Hemisphere timeseries for the boreholes, an area- >weighted average from a five-degree grid. It includes a mean reconstruction >and two uncertainty timeseries representing +/- 1 standard error. We have >referenced the series to the zero crossing of the NH SAT (total). This is >after the Moberg et al. paper in which the crossing year was determined to be >1958.5. That reference for the SAT data is: > >Jones, P.D. and A. Moberg, Hemispheric and large-scale surface air >temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. >Clim. 16, 206223 (2003). > >The reference for the borehole reconstruction is Pollack & Smerdon (2004). > >If you and Keith are using another subset (land only?) or version of the SAT >data please send us the year of the zero-crossing of the 20th-century SAT >trend >in the dataset you are using. We can reference from there >accordingly. Let me >or Jason know if you have any questions. I am leaving for Australia next week >and Jason is also traveling a little, so please let us know ASAP if you need >something different. > >Cheers, >Henry > Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 4925. 2005-07-22 11:59:29 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 11:59:29 -0600 (MDT) from: Bette Otto-Bliesner subject: Re: [wg1-ar4-ch06] Updated 6.1 (inc. Bette's comments) to: David Rind Looking more closely at the PRISM data set on the web, I would be more comfortable with the following changes and additions to the text: 1. In paragraph 3, temperatures warmer (estimated by GCMs to be 2-3C above preindustrial). The uneven and geographically sparse nature of the data cores makes me uneasy including a global warming estimate based on the data. 2. In paragraph 4, I would like to see numbers (with uncertainties) of high-latitude and tropical warming from the data. This is important since we contend that the Pliocene response is different than what models project for the future. I think in addition to Jim Zachos we should have Alan Haywood look at this box ahay@bas.ac.uk. Bette ______________________________________________ Bette L. Otto-Bliesner Climate Change Research National Center for Atmospheric Research 1850 Table Mesa Drive / P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, Colorado 80307 Phone: 303-497-1723 Fax: 303-497-1348 Email: ottobli@ncar.ucar.edu ______________________________________________ On Fri, 22 Jul 2005, David Rind wrote: > Hi Eyestein, > > Thanks for your comments. With respect to the suggested changes in paragraphs > 1,2 and 4, they seem fine to me. However, I think we need to include in > paragraph 5 potential reasons as to why the substantial (and not just > significant) high latitude warming that appears in the mid-Pliocene record is > not produced in GCMs in response to higher CO2, in general - otherwise we > leave the reader with a big question and no possible solution. The tendency > of GCM simulations for the future climate to produce an NADW decrease forces > those simulations to have minimal high latitude warming in the North > Atlantic, exactly opposite the inference from the Pliocene paleo-record > (which is quite robust in this respect at least). If the Pliocene record is > indicating the opposite of what current models are predicting, it may be > offering us a valuable clue... > > The suggested reasons also include the comment that the lack of land ice at > high northern latitudes might be a strong contributing cause - which would > make it a no-analog situation, and hence not fully a GCM problem. > > I would favor leaving those two sentences as they were. > > David > > > At 5:19 PM +0200 7/22/05, Eystein Jansen wrote: >> Hi, >> see enclosed some comments to the last version of the deep time box. I >> propose some deletions and some toning down of language. What do you think? >> >> Eystein >> -- >> ______________________________________________________________ >> Eystein Jansen >> Professor/Director >> Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >> Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >> Allégaten 55 >> N-5007 Bergen >> NORWAY >> e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >> Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 >> Fax: +47-55-584330 >> >> Attachment converted: Toltec:IPCC Box 6.1_latest_EJcomm.doc (WDBN/«IC») >> (1BE54183) > > > -- > /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > > /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 2653. 2005-07-22 13:17:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 13:17:42 -0400 from: David Rind subject: Re: [wg1-ar4-ch06] Updated 6.1 (inc. Bette's comments) to: Eystein Jansen Hi Eyestein, Thanks for your comments. With respect to the suggested changes in paragraphs 1,2 and 4, they seem fine to me. However, I think we need to include in paragraph 5 potential reasons as to why the substantial (and not just significant) high latitude warming that appears in the mid-Pliocene record is not produced in GCMs in response to higher CO2, in general - otherwise we leave the reader with a big question and no possible solution. The tendency of GCM simulations for the future climate to produce an NADW decrease forces those simulations to have minimal high latitude warming in the North Atlantic, exactly opposite the inference from the Pliocene paleo-record (which is quite robust in this respect at least). If the Pliocene record is indicating the opposite of what current models are predicting, it may be offering us a valuable clue... The suggested reasons also include the comment that the lack of land ice at high northern latitudes might be a strong contributing cause - which would make it a no-analog situation, and hence not fully a GCM problem. I would favor leaving those two sentences as they were. David At 5:19 PM +0200 7/22/05, Eystein Jansen wrote: >Hi, >see enclosed some comments to the last version >of the deep time box. I propose some deletions >and some toning down of language. What do you >think? > >Eystein >-- >______________________________________________________________ >Eystein Jansen >Professor/Director >Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >Allégaten 55 >N-5007 Bergen >NORWAY >e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 >Fax: +47-55-584330 > >Attachment converted: Toltec:IPCC Box >6.1_latest_EJcomm.doc (WDBN/«IC») (1BE54183) -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1043. 2005-07-22 15:26:52 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 22 15:26:52 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: [Fwd: Re: IPCC reference] to: trenbert@ucar.edu Not quite sure where this leaves us. Need to check in early Aug, I guess. Phil Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2005 10:28:55 -0400 From: Brian Soden Reply-To: b.soden@miami.edu User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux i686; en-US; rv:1.7.2) Gecko/20040805 Netscape/7.2 X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Phil Jones Subject: [Fwd: Re: IPCC reference] X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.3 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: IPCC reference Date: Thu, 14 Jul 2005 09:36:49 +0100 From: Gary J Robinson [1] To: [2]b.soden@miami.edu References: [3]<42D56819.50704@noaa.gov> Hi Brian, Although it was accepted with major revisions (mainly arising from comments from Bill Rossow), I have taken the opportunity to extend the data period to include more satellites before resubmitting. I plan to have the revised version on my web area ([4]http://www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/~gazza) by the end of this month once I have received further comments. You may be interested in another paper I am submitting (probably to JAOT) on the radiometric calibration of the ISCCP IR channel data. Again, I hope to have this available by the end of this month. Regards, Gary On 13 Jul 2005, at 20:14, Brian Soden wrote: Gary or Richard Could you please tell me the status of the following paper that is referenced in Ch. 3 of the IPCC AR4 draft. Robinson, G., 2005: Rigorous quality control of the ISCCP B3 10µm dataset: Automated identification and treatment of radiometric noise, navigation and rectification errors. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech. submitted. thanks. Brian Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3899. 2005-07-22 15:50:04 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 15:50:04 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Re: first set of comments on Ch06-FOD-11 to: Dominique Raynaud Hi Dominique - great to have you back on-line! Please refer back to our emails of July 14 for instructions on providing comments and edits on the current (July 14) FOD draft. In particular, it will be much easier if you provide comments on a section by section basis (edited directly into the Word version of the file), and then send to the relevant section teams below: Exec Summary - send to Peck and Eystein Section 6.2 - DAVID and Stefan Section 6.3 - Dominique, Bette, STEFAN, and Dick Section 6.4 - BETTE, Valerie Section 6.5 - KEITH, Ricardo, Ramesh, Dan, Prof. Zhang Section 6.6 - FORTUNAT Box 6.1 - DAVID, Stefan Box 6.2 - FORTUNAT, Stefan Box 6.3 - OLGA, Keith Box 6.4 - KEITH, Ricardo Note that we asked those in BOLD to be the coordinator for each section - because you were traveling, you escaped this job! Nonetheless, you have to work FAST - see next email. Please start by resending the comments/edits below the to right teams. Merci! Peck and Eystein Dear Peck, Eystein,Bette and Fortunat, Here is a first set of comments on chapter 6 (file:Ch06-FOD-11). If you prefer I can also include my corrections on the file. I hope to have a second set of comments at the end of the beginning of next week. Kind regards to all of you Dominique FIRST SET OF COMMENTS - Contributing authors: please add Jean-Marc Barnola (contribution to the Vostok figure) and Frédéric Parrenin (contribution to the discussion about the validity of the EPICA DC time scale and on the termination of an interglacial). - Executive summary page 6-2, line 16: ...Antarctic temperature and CO2 generally co-vary... line 19 ...indicates that the earth could not enter.... page 6-3, lines 28 and 29: I don't understand the bullet as it is. Would it be clearer just to say: "There is no evidence for century-to millennial-scale modes of natural climate variability that could explain global warming of the last 150 years"? - 6.3.1 page 6-5, line 48: we have two recent (post TAR) references for ice cores, but no ref. for marine and terrestrial records. line 55 delete: (see section 6.?) page 6-6, line 2 delete Figure (6.3.1-1) line 3 delete Greenland line 23 ...trace gases are an important feedback... page 6-8, lines 6 to 34: All this section about glacial-interglacial terrestrial carbon cycle seems to present the state of the art as already known for TAR. I suggest to delete it or to extract only the very few new facts relevant for the future. This will help to reduce 6.3 Page 6-9 line 49 The reference NorthGrip members should be deleted here, because of no relevance with the five glacial cycles. I am not sure what would be the good ref. here. -- Dominique Raynaud Research Director at CNRS Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement BP 96 38402 Saint Martin d'Heres Cedex, France raynaud@lgge.obs.ujf-grenoble.fr PH: +33 4 76 82 42 52 FAX: +33 4 76 82 42 01 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 3313. 2005-07-22 15:50:08 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 22 15:50:08 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: End of day summary to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, My earlier email with Sherwood said you were away, so you may not get this till later. I will try and find some time this weekend to go through some more bits. I will likely only have one day, and I have other things to do as well. Your email to all expressed some frustration that the whole thing is taking too much of our time. I feel the same too, but know that Aug 12 isn't that far away! I have to confess I'm trying to do many other things. UEA isn't helping, the whole place is being reorganized. I've been told to go to meetings about the new grant submission format, and am getting grief for not going. Problem is that I have a couple fof projects finishing and a couple starting that need some attention. Also two PhD students finishing, who I've been badgering for the last 2 years. If only they had wanted to submit a few months earlier it would be much better ! As for the emails over the last few days. 1. The Australian insert into the extremes box was OK. 2. The amendments to 3.8 are OK. 3. I need to check what David has done. He is so responsive as he doesn't seem to have anything else to do down there - at least when I was down in Exeter earlier this week ! 4. I will have a go at an opening for CQ2. Putting the heatwaves/warm nights into CQ1 will likely mean I need to check for overlaps with CQ2. I had some of this stuff there - all issues of temperature. I also need to get the new Figure in and some brief text. If it is very brief I will leave it there. Will check what David has done in this respect. The version you sent yesterday seems fine to go with for the FOD. David will be away after next week, but John Kennedy will be there if need any more mods to any figures the HC have done. 5. Good to hear about Lisa Butler and the reference formatting. Remember that Albert said he would check this list against the text. He is still keen to do that in early Aug. This will be one less thing for us to do. I was wondering earlier today whether a call early next week would be useful. Any thoughts on that. Have you heard any more on the DTR issue? Russ Vose should be back by now? I will look this weekend into Aiguo's email as to why the CRU versions differ. I suspect that a decision was made to no longer use some dataset, but it might take some time to track down why. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2091. 2005-07-22 15:57:32 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 22 Jul 2005 15:57:32 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] DEADLINES NEXT WEEK ---- IMPORTANT!! to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu, Bette Otto-Bleisner Hi all - We just talked, and have adjusted next week's deadlines to give you all (and us!) the maximum time to produce the next draft. Please WORK FAST to: 1) EVERYONE: By Monday, July 25: please provide all section edits and comments to the designated section leaders listed in our July 14 emails (BOLD names in list copied below). This should include edits/comments on the text, figs and references. Note that this deadline has been moved to give you one more day. 2) ALL SECTION LEADERS (in BOLD below): By Wednesday, July 27, please provide the updated text, figs and refs (in ENDNOTE FILE) to Peck and Eystein. ALL - of course, there will still be some writing and figure work in progress on the 27th, but we'd like to get as much as possible by that date so we can assemble the next draft in total. If you can't provide everything by the 27th, please let us know what will be coming by when. Exec Summary - send to Peck and Eystein Section 6.2 - DAVID and Stefan Section 6.3 - Dominique, Bette, STEFAN, and Dick Section 6.4 - BETTE, Valerie Section 6.5 - KEITH, Ricardo, Ramesh, Dan, Prof. Zhang Section 6.6 - FORTUNAT Box 6.1 - DAVID, Stefan Box 6.2 - FORTUNAT, Stefan Box 6.3 - OLGA, Keith Box 6.4 - KEITH, Ricardo Many thanks, Peck and Eystein. -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 583. 2005-07-22 16:03:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 22 16:03:58 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: For your eyes only to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, This pdf added, so add a reference somewhere. Also added the two that Roxana sent. The attacks in London haven't helped my work rate that's for sure! I was trying to work yesterday evening on a train from Newcastle. There were announcements every 30 minutes about whether the tube was working and everyone calling on mobiles - and this was supposed to be the mobile-free quiet carriage ! Train was on time back in Norfolk though. Most people are going about as normal - or at least trying to. It does get you thinking sitting on trains. An arab looking guy got on at one station and a couple of people moved when he sat down. There is an England vs Australia test match going on at Lords! Aus 190 AO and 174-3, England 155 AO at the moment. Now to a leaving do - all the UEA reorganization mean our secretary is leaving today to go elsewhere in the University. Cheers Phil At 15:12 22/07/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I am in today and plan to clean up a few things. This paper makes sense: I read only the abstract so far, but it is a point made be Wentz earlier. I wonder if they updated their figures? We use 2 of them that need updating. I guess I should try to incorporate John Christy's new trend also into the other figure. And I need to check CQ1 fig. I presume you are keeping all the pdfs, and will add this one. The main section I have not touched yet is the stuff on dimming and radiation. Also 3.9 again. How's the mood in England with the London attacks? Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Whilst in Exeter, I got this from Peter Thorne (who is reviewing it for Science). I suspect we should be referring to it, just as an addition to the Randel and Wu paper. It would seem that Bill is aware of this. Maybe you've already seen this. Peter went on about not passing this on to anyone else and also what Ch 3 should be concluding about the whole LT issue and what CCSP says. I felt what he was saying was far too strong, so won't go into it. He is my ex-student - I hope the situation won't go as far as you have with one of your ex-students! CCSP should be available from Aug 15 publicly until Sept 30. Then they have a meting in mid-Oct to finalize everything and all will be printed by Oct 31 ! They've been told they can't change anything once they leave O'Hare at the end of the meeting. The attached paper is tentatively accepted, as is Santer et al. Peter didn't know about Mears and Wentz. The plan is for Science to put all three out together asap, but this is also confidential. Most of the chapters for CCSP are coming along well - except for the Pielke one, now there's a surprise. He's not happy with the Peterson paper on E. Colorado. I'll email again later today with some more on the FOD. Downloaded the latest draft and figs. First I need to get comments back on Brohan et al. so that can be submitted. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 820. 2005-07-23 09:40:27 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Sat, 23 Jul 2005 09:40:27 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: Ad: Re: [wg1-ar4-ch06] Updated 6.1 (inc. Bette's comments) to: David Rind Hi David, thanks for the reply. I think your arguments to add some comments of explanation re Pliocene warmth are convincing and that there is potential relevance for IPCC concerning lat. heat transport in a world with less land and sea ice. My concern is that I don't think the text should be interpreted to imply that the Mid Pliocene was free of Arctic sea ice and Greenland was ice free. There is evidence from the recent IODP Central Arctic Drilling (have to check what ref. to use) of sea ice cover through the Pliocene. I have publishet on IRD evidence for a Greenland ice sheet of some sort. Concerning THC, N Atlantic data indicate strong presence of NADW akin to now, but we cannot constrain overturning rate. Both Nordic Seas an Arctic Ocean was poorly ventilated and deep water formation to feed overflows was shallover, perhaps due to higher temperature? Instead of deleting the section I proposed, I suggest changing it as follows: After (Rind and Chadler 1991) add , "for which available proxy data are inconclusive", and Instead of writing "absence of land ice", write " reduced extent of land and sea ice". I will find the best refs for this on Monday. Cheers Eystein _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 2263. 2005-07-25 09:05:02 ______________________________________________________ cc: mitrie -- Anders Moberg , Eduardo Zorita , Jan Esper , Keith Briffa , Myles Allen , Nanne Weber , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 09:05:02 -0400 (EDT) from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: meeting etc to: Martin Juckes Hi all, I apologize big time for having to do this to you, and it does not mean the project is less important to me at all! The IPCC deadline is less than 3 weeks away, and in addition to all the stuff I knew I had to do (brush up the sections I am responsible for + read all the other stuff), there is an unanticipated (although I shouldhave) flurry of cross-chapter coordiation which seemed to take nearly all the time in the last two weeks...(we need our chapter to go our to our LAs this week for checking, comments, and I just couldn't see this happen if I go on a trip again....). I hope I can participate by phone (I can phone in also for Edus talk if there are any questions, and for you guys talk maybe too? If we can figure out a way?) and for coordinating acitivites. I was really looking forward to meeting you all and hope it will happen another time. sorry..... Gabi On Mon, 25 Jul 2005, Martin Juckes wrote: > > > Hello All, > > Unfortunately, Gabi has had to withdraw from our meeting this week. > Eduardo is going to give her presentation, and she will ring in > to contribute to the discussion. > > My apologies to those of you who tried to log into the web site. > The password is mitrie%05, not 50 as in my previous email. > (address: http://home.badc.rl.ac.uk/mjuckes/mitrie > userid: your email address) > > cheers, > Martin > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1074. 2005-07-25 10:16:30 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 10:16:30 -0400 from: Tom Crowley subject: participation in IPCC to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi all, there is another reason why I should not be formally listed as an LA - it is my understanding that IPCC contributors have to be a little careful about getting involved in political matters that could be used to impugn the integrity of the process - well I am starting to do just that, with the attached commen in Eos, plus some radio interviews where I have been somewhat pointed in my thoughts. I suppose its still ok to be a reviewer, but even then you might keep these comments in mind, tom > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Crowley1.EOS.2005.pdf" 4719. 2005-07-25 11:25:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jul 25 11:25:10 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Changes to 3.4 to accommodate Sherwood et al OK to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Changes to section 3.4.1.1/2/5 are all OK. Phil At 19:17 22/07/2005, you wrote: Phil Rumour has it that all three will be together. I have made changes in 3.4.1 and they turn out to be non trivial: 3.4.1.1 I moved the Haimberger para to second last and added stuff: A new development in approaches to improve radiosonde data has been to use the bias-adjustments estimated during data assimilation into model-based reanalyses (Haimberger, 2005). Despite the risk of contamination by other biased data in the assimilation, or by model biases, the adjustments are found to agree with those estimated by existing methods. In another major new development, Sherwood et al. (2005) has found substantial changes in the diurnal cycle as measured by sondes that are almost certainly a consequence of improved sensors, which have have become much smaller over time, reducing the radiation effects. Hence relative to nighttime values, they find a daytime warming of sonde temperatures prior to 1971 that is likely spurious and then a daytime cooling, especially from 1979 to 1997 during the satellite era, that is also spurious. Thus there is likely a spurious downward trend in sonde temperature records throughout the atmosphere after 1979 of order 0.1°C globally: the assessed spurious cooling is greatest in the tropics of 0.16 K decade^1 for the 850 to 300 hPa layer, and least in the NH extratropics of 0.04 K decade^-1. End of 3.4.1.2 now reads: While comparisons of radiosonde station data with collocated satellite data (Christy and Norris, 2004) suggest that the median trends of radiosonde temperatures in the troposphere are very close to UAH trends and a little less than RSS trends, comparisons of trends at individual radiosonde sites vary and root mean square differences of UAH satellite data with radiosondes are substantial (Hurrell et al., 2000). Moreover, radiosonde data contain diurnal cycle influences (Sherwood et al., 2005) that lead to spurious cooling throughout the atmosphere from 1979 to 1997, and residual spurious downward jumps (Randel and Wu, 2005), so that they are compromised by multiple problems (Section 3.4.1.1 and Appendix 3.A.5.1). In the stratosphere, radiosonde trends are more negative than both MSU retrievals, especially when compared with RSS, and this too is likely due to changes in sondes (Randel and Wu, 2005). In 3.4.1.5 I added one sentence at end of para: In the tropics, the theoretically expected amplification of temperature perturbations with height is borne out in interannual fluctuations (ENSO) in radiosondes, RSS and with models (Santer et al., 2005), and only the radiosonde records are at odds for trends. If the latter were corrected for radiation effects (Sherwood, et al. 2005), then they too show increased warming with altitude. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Whilst in Exeter, I got this from Peter Thorne (who is reviewing it for Science). I suspect we should be referring to it, just as an addition to the Randel and Wu paper. It would seem that Bill is aware of this. Maybe you've already seen this. Peter went on about not passing this on to anyone else and also what Ch 3 should be concluding about the whole LT issue and what CCSP says. I felt what he was saying was far too strong, so won't go into it. He is my ex-student - I hope the situation won't go as far as you have with one of your ex-students! CCSP should be available from Aug 15 publicly until Sept 30. Then they have a meting in mid-Oct to finalize everything and all will be printed by Oct 31 ! They've been told they can't change anything once they leave O'Hare at the end of the meeting. The attached paper is tentatively accepted, as is Santer et al. Peter didn't know about Mears and Wentz. The plan is for Science to put all three out together asap, but this is also confidential. Most of the chapters for CCSP are coming along well - except for the Pielke one, now there's a surprise. He's not happy with the Peterson paper on E. Colorado. I'll email again later today with some more on the FOD. Downloaded the latest draft and figs. First I need to get comments back on Brohan et al. so that can be submitted. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4843. 2005-07-25 13:04:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 13:04:40 -0400 from: Tom Crowley subject: Re: MWP figure to: Tim Osborn Tim, go ahead and do it, don't forget all of these time series have been published, all we did was take the published data and convert it to std. deviation of decadally smoothed data, so even though my compilation is still in our review in Nature, the basic data should not even be at that stage, and in the supplementary section of the nature paper I think I was fairly complete in describing what I did. come to think of it, there is one exception, Jacoby only released individual tree ring sites from Mongolia, not his annual avergae composite, so I had to do a composite on that, splicing together information from different sections of the various records - i spent about a week on this but don't claim to have the final summary, would be good if someone else did it too so we could compare notes - see. attached [red X's signify the values of the final composite, different colors represent different sections of the splice, with coded annotations about which records were included in each section of the splice). hope this helps, tom Tim Osborn wrote: > At 17:54 21/07/2005, Tom Crowley wrote: > >> Tim, we are getting close but there are a few items to discuss: > > > Hi Tom, > > I haven't seen any replies from Peck or Eystein, and Keith will be > away all week because unfortunately his father has just died. > > So I guess it's down to us to make the final decisions. Here are my > responses: > >> 1) seven of the eight time series are from the Hegerl et al paper, >> now out for review in Nature >> 2) the eighth time series is from Brian Luckmans recent extension of >> the Alberta record to the 10th century - we used his original time >> series in the H et al paper because the comparisons between model and >> observations had been going on for a while, in fact before the new >> Luckman paper came out, and we did not want to switch horses in >> midstream by changing the composite - as you know the Luckman paper >> is either accepted or published in CD, so there is no problem >> changing that >> 3) although technically the time series are not the same they are >> very close, if you want me to do some comparisons I can, but I could >> not get to it until probably tuesday of next week - I don't >> particularly see any problem in makng such an addition > > > I don't think this any comparisons are necessary. Even if they're not > quite the same, they'll be close if 7/8 series are the same or > similar. I think we should go with the 8 you've used in your figure. > >> 4) we cannot extend the time series back to 800 without dropping out >> something - the reason we start at 945 is that is the first year when >> all the records are available - if we go back to 800 we do so at the >> cost of dropping 2 or possibly even 3 records. as our Dark Ages >> reconstruction starting at 560 indicates (att.), the biggest warming >> between 800-1900 is in the late 10the century (960-995), we did not >> think we missing out on anything by starting at 945 rather than 800. > > > good reason. so 945 onwards is fine. > > Are you happy for me to have these data series, so I can draw the > final version of the figure? If there's any problem over restricted > access, then I'm happy to guarantee that I'll only use them for this > IPCC figure and not pass them on to anyone else. > > Best wishes > > Tim > > > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\Mongolia.splice.jpg" 3225. 2005-07-25 15:03:02 ______________________________________________________ cc: "David Easterling" , russell.vose@noaa.gov date: Mon Jul 25 15:03:02 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: What is left to do to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, Been in touch with Dave. He's back at NCDC - was at a CCSP planning for the next issue, extremes, in Aspen last week. He's now raring to go and has already sent me some of the pdfs needed. Only a few more to go now. Discussed on the phone, the main issues we need to make progress on this week. DTR - sent all the diagrams I had, and Russ is looking into this. Bottom line, is that their new series has NO decreasing trend in DTR since 1979. Russ will be plotting some station series from the regions with divergent trends cf Aiguo and Lisa. Particularly South America, where the differences were largest. Section 3.3 - Dave will work on this more, adding in text on the new Figures and the Table, and will produce a Table of the various datasets. Dave - around most of this week, if you can get revised drafts. If there is anything else, you're closer in time to Dave than I am, so email him. Cheers Phil PS I have a visitor tomorrow from about 11-4, but apart from that I have managed to get on top of most of my other work. I've sent some comments back on 3.9, will send what I did on CQ3.2 tomorrow and will start looking at other sections. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2523. 2005-07-25 16:00:02 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 16:00:02 +0200 from: Fortunat Joos subject: Re: Fwd: RE: solar forcing over the recent millennia to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi, Suggest to incorporate the essence of the paragraph into the forcing section. Regards, Fortunat Quoting Jonathan Overpeck : > Hi Keith and Fortunat - here's some text (and candid insight from > Chap 2 CLA) on land-use change back on paleo timescales. What should > we do w/ it? Anything? > > thanks > > best, peck > > >X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 > >From: "Piers Forster" > >To: "'Jonathan Overpeck'" > >Subject: RE: solar forcing over the recent millennia > >Date: Thu, 21 Jul 2005 10:21:50 +0100 > >Organization: University of Reading > >thread-index: AcWNdVqPqgXy+jzVRjCio7W7H4cJFwAX7kMg > > > > > > > >Peck > > > >Here is the text on land-use. I think it was more one of our Las (Richard > >Bets) wanting to get his work referenced as I took it out of our chapter. > >But I'm not even 100% sure he as submitted the work he refers to here in the > >Betts (2005) reference. But if you think you would want to cite it I could > >ask him > > > >Piers > > > > > > > > > >Since anthropogenic land cover change was in progress well before fossil > >fuel burning began, this may have exerted a radiative forcing of climate > >prior to the industrial era. Betts et al (2005) used a GCM to estimate the > >radiative forcing due to anthropogenic surface albedo changes at 1750 > >relative to the natural vegetation state. The global mean shortwave > >radiative forcing due to land cover change by 1750 was simulated as -0.06 > >Wm-2. The local forcing at 1750 reached -2 Wm-2 over Europe, China and > >India. In Europe, approximately 12% of the land currently used for crops or > >grazing had been modified by 1750 (Klein Goldewijk 2001). Although a > >greater fraction (15%) of the land was cultivated in China at that time, > >much of this was in warmer regions where the relative infrequency of snow > >cover reduced the impact of deforestation on surface albedo. The greatest > >forcing within China was in Manchuria, where long-lasting snow cover allowed > >land cover change to exert large impacts on surface albedo. > > > >Negative radiative forcings were simulated in of some parts of the Americas, > >but these areas were small since European settlers had arrived only > >relatively recently and major agricultural expansion had yet to take place. > > > >Piers Forster (p.m.forster@rdg.ac.uk) > >T +44 118 378 6020; F +44 118 378 8905 > >Department of Meteorology, > >University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: Jonathan Overpeck [mailto:jto@u.arizona.edu] > >Sent: 20 July 2005 22:51 > >To: Piers Forster > >Cc: Eystein Jansen; cddhr@giss.nasa.gov; Gabi Hegerl; Keith Briffa; 'V. > >Ramaswamy' > >Subject: RE: solar forcing over the recent millennia > > > >Hi Piers et al - thanks! I'm hoping (please > >confirm, David) that David will be working to > >ensure all of our chapters are consistent wrt > >solar forcing - want to also make sure we're also > >ok wrt to volcanic? > > > >Of course the rest of us should try to keep an eye on things too. > > > >We are still over our official space limit, but > >if you want to send the land-use change material > >you mention, we can check it out and see if we > >can at least reference the right citations. > > > >Thanks again, peck > > > >>Hi all > >> > >>This a draft of our solar and volcanic sections, so you can see where we > >>have got to and what we intend to cover - note it is still some way off > >>being complete! > >> > >>There is also a section at the start on land-use changes prior to 1750 that > >>Richard Betts, one of our LAs wanted the Paleo chapter to consider > >> > >>Note also the brief sections on the climate response to solar and volcanic > >>forcings, these may also fit better elsewhere > >> > >> > >>Cheers > >>Piers > >> > >> > >> > >> > >>Piers Forster (p.m.forster@rdg.ac.uk) > >>T +44 118 378 6020; F +44 118 378 8905 > >>Department of Meteorology, > >>University of Reading, RG6 6BB, UK > >> > >>-----Original Message----- > >>From: Jonathan Overpeck [mailto:jto@u.arizona.edu] > >>Sent: 18 July 2005 18:54 > >>To: V. Ramaswamy > >>Cc: p.m.forster@reading.ac.uk; cddhr@giss.nasa.gov; Eystein Jansen; Gabi > >>Hegerl; Keith Briffa > >>Subject: Re: solar forcing over the recent millennia > >> > >>Hi Ram and Piers - might be good to share, and > >>also to share w/ David Rind, Keith Briffa and > >>Gabi, since we need to make sure all our chapters > > >are compatible on the issue of solar. I believe, > >>last we talked, that you were playing pre-20th > >>century aspects. > >> > >>I think David tries hard to keep in touch w/ > >>Judith L on these issues too. That should help. > >> > >>We're happy to share our text w/ you too. > >> > >>Thanks again, peck > >> > >>>Hi Piers, > >>> > >>>Would it be best to send to Jonathan Chap. 2's latest version of the > > >>solar - and also volcano? Note that these sections are still at the > >>>draft-stage. > >>> > >>>Ram > >>> > >>> > >>> > >>>On Mon, 18 Jul 2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > >>> > >>>> Hi Fortunat et al. - thanks for this new > >>>> material, and for the review of this new > >>>> material. I think David Rind is up on the Chap 2 > >>>> discussion of solar, and he's also a CA/liaison > >>>> on Chap 9. Thus, he can help make sure we are > >>>> consistent (best confirm, David). > >>>> > >>>> If we have it all right and it makes sense for > >>>> Rob to be a CA, great (and thanks!). Rob - can > >>>> you send a short cv to me and Eystein? > >>>> > >>>> thanks, peck > >>>> > >>>> >Hi, > >>>> > > >>>> >I have some text on solar for section 6.5.2. I > >>>> >tried to be as brief as possible. > >>>> > > >>>> >I got also input from Rob Dorland for our chapter and I have > >summarized > >>his > >>>> >text, mainly in para 2.7.2.1, in the very > >>>>last para of the attached document. > >>>> > > >>>> >(I have not yet checked his lower bound Maunder Minimum for the > >earlier > >>>> >reconstruction, but will try to do so asap if > >>>>this last paragraph survives. I > >>>> >suspect the lower bound should be 0.25% reduction instead of 0.15%; > I > >>have > >>>> >added Bard as additional reference which > >>>>gives the high Maunder Minimum bound > >>>> >of a 0.65% reduction in irradiance below the present mean level) > >>>> > > >>>> >KEITH AND DAVID could you check whether you > >>>>agree with the writing. Bette has > >>>> >already looked over it here at NCAR and found the expansion > >worthwhile. > >>>> > > >>>> >PECK AND EYSTEIN, can you put Rob van Dorland > >>>>down as contributing author if > >>>> >this expansion on solar forcing is welcomed. > >>>> > > >>>> >ROB: would you mind to send me the references > >>>>for your text in endnote format? > >>>> >(I usually use bibtex and are just in the transition). > >>>> > > >>>> >With best wishes, > >>>> > > >>>> >Fortunat > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> > > >>>> >-- > >>>> >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; > >>>> > > >>>> >Until November 23 > >>>> > National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, > >CGD > >>>> > 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 > >> >> > ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) > >>>> > > >>>> > home address: > >>>> > 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 > >>>> > ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) > >>>> > > >>>> >After November 24 > >>>> > Climate and Environmental Physics > >>>> > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > >>>> > Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > >>>> > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > >>>> > > >>>> >Attachment converted: Macintosh > >>>> >HD:joos_Ch06_FOD_6.5.2_s#8A3ED.doc (WDBN/) > >>>> >(0008A3ED) > >>>> >Attachment converted: Macintosh > >>>> >HD:dorland_Ch02s7_ZOD_pr#8A3EE.doc (WDBN/) > >>>> >(0008A3EE) > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> -- > >>>> Jonathan T. Overpeck > >>>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>>> Professor, Department of Geosciences > >>>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >>>> > >>>> Mail and Fedex Address: > >>>> > >>>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > >>>> University of Arizona > >>>> Tucson, AZ 85721 > >>>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > >>>> fax: +1 520 792-8795 > >>>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > >>>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >>>> > >> > >> > >>-- > >>Jonathan T. Overpeck > >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>Professor, Department of Geosciences > >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >> > >>Mail and Fedex Address: > >> > >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > >>University of Arizona > >>Tucson, AZ 85721 > >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 > >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >> > >>Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ch2topaleo19July.doc (WDBN/) > >(0008AD67) > > > > > >-- > >Jonathan T. Overpeck > >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >Professor, Department of Geosciences > >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > > > >Mail and Fedex Address: > > > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > >University of Arizona > >Tucson, AZ 85721 > >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > >fax: +1 520 792-8795 > >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > > > -- > Jonathan T. Overpeck > Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > Professor, Department of Geosciences > Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > > Mail and Fedex Address: > > Institute for the Study of Planet Earth > 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor > University of Arizona > Tucson, AZ 85721 > direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 > fax: +1 520 792-8795 > http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ > http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > -- e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Until November 23 National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) home address: 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) After November 24 Climate and Environmental Physics Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ 498. 2005-07-25 16:05:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Jul 25 16:05:57 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Extremes in model runs... to: alex@gvc.gu.se Alexander, Thanks for the update. The reason for pairing off the runs is that all the parameters that are calculated for the indices should be taken from the control (natural) runs and then used for the nat+anthro runs. Jeff Knight is the person at the HC to check about which is which. Cheers Phil At 15:29 25/07/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, only a short notice for your information. Some routines are ready to reformat/extract/process/... the model data. Things went quite fine with this "new stuff". I'm still downloading the model runs (it's a bit new, to "think" in those file-sizes which cannot be downloaded in some minutes). However, according to your suggestion I will start with 1 or 2 of the runs. You presume that the 6 model runs (6 nat and 6 nat+anthro) can be paired. I will try to find out from the Hadley group if this is the case. At the moment there are 4 natural runs and 3 nat+anthro runs available. I guess I'll be able to send some results by the end of next week. So we'll keep in touch. all the best to Norwich Alex -- *************************** Alexander Walther Earth Sciences Centre Göteborg University Box 460 S-405 60 Göteborg, Sweden --------------------------- Fon: (+46)-31-7734849 Fax: (+46)-31-7731986 [1]http://www.gvc.gu.se/rcg *************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2749. 2005-07-25 16:24:49 ______________________________________________________ cc: richard.somerville@wanadoo.fr, mmanning@al.noaa.gov date: Mon Jul 25 16:24:49 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: tropical cyclones to: Kevin Trenberth , ssolomon@al.noaa.gov Susan, It is good news if Kerry has dropped off that BAMS paper, but we both think he is still on. Kerry would be a welcome addition to the CA list, but can we add him after the FOD. We are rushing trying to complete other sections at the moment and don't want to go back to sections we are happy with now. So can we suggest Kerry is a reviewer, and if he feels it needs extensively modifying we get him involved during the SOD process. If he's happy with our draft on TCs it might be better having him outside the process than in, when it comes to any flak later. Phil At 15:18 25/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Susan FYI, I have had quite a few exchanges with Kerry after some contacts via Rick Anthes, not too long ago. Kerry will be here first week of August and is giving a seminar. I presume the seminar is on his paper coming out in Nature which I have a copy of and which is already in our chapter. In it he develops a new destructive potential index for tropical storms. It is similar to the ACE I used in the Science paper. The latter is accumulated energy, relates to v**2. Kerry goes a step further and computes dissipated which is related more to v**3, so it emphasizies the big guys more. He concludes that this index "show a substantial upward trend beginning in the mid 1970s, roughly doubling since then. This trend is owing to trends both toward longer storm lifetimes and toward greater storm intensity." This is global although he focusses most on Atlantic and NW Pacific. It is difficult to go back before the satellite era of the late 1960s. A lot of our excahnges related to the Pielke et al paper cvoming out in BAMS. He was approached by Pielke Jr and Landsea and he says he play a major role in toning it down, and thus felt obligated to remain an author, in spite of the fact that the messages there are in conflict with is Nature paper. I pointed out several such conflicts: the BAMS article says we don't know enough Science to say anything useful: Kerry and I agree we can do a lot better than that. And then his conclusion fits very well with mine, drawn independently as given in my Science article. But last I heard he was still an author? As you know Kerry reviewed the ZOD, which had troubles and mixed stuff coming mainly from Albert. The FOD has changed completely and has a major new figure. I would be glad if Kerry reviews it; whether he needs to be CA is not clear at this point. I would say not. You are wlecome to review the text of that section. It has been stable now for some time. Thanks Kevin ssolomon@al.noaa.gov wrote: Dear Kevin and Phil, Informally via Richard Somerville, Kerry Emmanuel has today volunteered to serve as a CA on the topic of tropical cyclones. You may want to consider an option of sending him your draft text for that subsection, if you think it would be practical and helpful to iterate with him before your draft is due in the middle of August. I am passing this on to you for information, recognizing that it is quite late for that. It may be worth noting that according to Richard, I understand that Kerry has withdrawn his name from the Pielke/Landsea piece that is due to appear in BAMS, and that Kerry has another piece of his own on this topic that is submitted to Nature. It is entirely your call. best regards, Susan -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2074. 2005-07-25 21:44:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Mon, 25 Jul 2005 21:44:12 +0200 from: Fortunat Joos subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] solar in 6.5.2 to: Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Mime-Autoconverted: from 8bit to 7bit by courier 0.47 Dear Peck, David and all, Here an update on the solar text. Raimund Muscheler helped me with the issue. Could you please add Raimund as a CA. We have a new proposal for the bullet: "There is proxy evidence that solar activity changed on decadal-to-multi centennial time scales and some studies indicate a solar influence on climate. However, . the relationship between changes in solar proxies and variation in solar irradiance, or climate, remains uncertain." The climate evidence refers mainly to the studies cited in the Holocene section. Furthermore, I have tried to include all references provided by Chapter 2. The solar references are now added in plain text at the end of the file. Unfortunately, I could not locate Krivova and Solanki 2003 and I am not completely sure with all references. I would find it a good solution if chapter 2 could check the text. I have also checked again the land use issue in response to the mail by Piers, chap2 and I think Keith has covered that point. With best regards, Fortunat Quoting Fortunat Joos : > Dear Stefan, > > Attached a revised text on the abrupt glacial changes. References are added > as > wll. > > I have tried to be as short as possible with my additions. I agree with David > and Bette that we can save space by omitting the 1500 yr cycle and move the > future section to chap 10. > > With best regards, > > Fortunat > > -- > e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; > > Until November 23 > National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD > 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 > ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) > > home address: > 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 > ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) > > After November 24 > Climate and Environmental Physics > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > > -- e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Until November 23 National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) home address: 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) After November 24 Climate and Environmental Physics Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\joos_Ch06_FOD_6_5_solar_joos_21jul05.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1495. 2005-07-26 12:09:33 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu, Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 12:09:33 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: Last Millennium section 6.5 - comments by SR to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith and all, (please everyone have a look at point (4)) I think section 6.5 is in remarkably good shape (certainly compared to my own..). There are some comments from me: (1) About the new proxy reconstructions, the section says: "Most of these are shown..." in the Figure. This immediately raises the question: why not all? Which one is not shown? This section will be scrutinised with great suspicion by some people, so we need to be careful. Can you clarify which one you left out, and why? Or can we just write: "These are shown..." That would be much nicer. (2) Several times you say "simply scaled" - would "scaled" do as well? The "simply" in this context sounds a bit like we criticise that. (3) Is "predictand" a word that everybody knows? I'd never seen it before. (4) Now here is my biggest question, that I think we need to discuss in the whole group. Figure 6.5.2-1 shows simulations of the past millennium, relative to 1500-1899 means. Is this really the best reference period? Contra: it differs from how we show the data reconstructions, i.e., relative to 1961-1990. Everyone knows what that climate actually was, since there are good instrumental data for 1961-1990, so that it makes sense to look at changes relative to that period. Nobody knows what the real 1500-1899 mean was, so this is a fictitious baseline. Pro: it gets rid of "end effects", i.e. model initialisation problems at the beginning (as in Von Storch 04), and different anthropogenic forcings used at the end (e.g. some ignore aerosols); the simulations look closer together in this way (right?) I have not formed a clear opinion on what is best. (5) Also on the figures: I like the grey bands, but here's a suggestion for improvement: instead of leaving the core region between those two bands white, I think they should also be shaded - either the same grey, or a darker shade of grey. This makes it more clear that we are talking about one, wide uncertainty band here, not about two seperate things. It had me confused at first when I saw it, even though I was there when we discussed this in Beijing. Final point: we need to keep an eye on developments concerning the model tests of the proxy method, there seem to be several important things in the pipeline there. Cheers, Stefan -- To reach me directly please use: [1]rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf [2]www.ozean-klima.de [3]www.realclimate.org 3365. 2005-07-26 14:27:29 ______________________________________________________ cc: Henry Pollack date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 14:27:29 -0400 (EDT) from: Jason E Smerdon subject: Re: NH Borehole Timeseries to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, Attached are three borehole reconstruction time series for the Southern Hemisphere, Africa and Australia. I have also included a pdf file containing the plots for the three series and the corresponding SAT time series that I used to reference the boreholes. There are several things to keep in mind with regard to the SH reconstructions. The SH dataset is much smaller than the NH dataset. There are a total of 165 sites in the SH, as compared to the 695 sites in the NH. The African and Australian subsets include 92 and 57 sites, respectively. The SH hemisphere is therefore much more sparsely sampled. As such, we have only computed point averages in each of the included reconstructions and noise may be more of a factor in the SH than in the NH. Additionally, more than half of the holes in the SH were measured before 1980. While this is true of places in the NH as well, the hemisphere includes many more measurements during the 80s and 90s. Many of the measurements in the SH therefore have missed much of the extreme warming in the latter two decades of the 20th century. We have taken this into account by referencing the boreholes to shortened periods in the 20th century SAT record, i.e., we used SAT trends from 1900 (1910 in the case of Australia) to the median borehole logging dates. The fact that the boreholes have not measured the late 20th-century warming is clearly visible in each of the plots that I have included. Each of the above points necessitate cautious interpretations of the SH record. Given that the provided reconstructions have been assembled in a bit of a hurry, Henry and I hope that we will have further chances to refine the reconstructions themselves (if needed) and their subsequent interpretation. It would also be very helpful to see the ensemble comparison including all of the SH reconstructions once it is completed. In the meantime, let me know if you need anything else. I hope that all is well. Best of luck with the IPCC duties and I hope that the included reconstructions are helpful. Take Care, Jason ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ____ ____ Jason E. Smerdon, Ph.D. [ \ / ] Dept. of Geological Sciences | \/ | University of Michigan | | 1100 N. University Ave. | |\/| | Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1005 | | | | Phone: (734) 657-9747 [____] [____] Fax: (734) 763-4690 E-mail: jsmerdon@umich.edu Web: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jsmerdon ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\SH_Reconstructions.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\African_Reconstruction.txt" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\Australian_Reconstruction.txt" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\SH_Reconstruction.txt" 724. 2005-07-26 15:06:45 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 15:06:45 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: MWP figure to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim - I think you made the right call, and the fig looks nice. Thanks. With respect to the MWP fig: 1) What period did you normalize to? 2)Is the composite (n.b., not a recon) related to any of the recons in your main text fig? No big deal either way, but thought it would be good to know. 3) I'd go ahead an work on a caption as soon as you can. With respect to the SH fig - your plan sounds fine. Can you send a caption for this one too - by Friday? It would be a big help to have all figs/captions by then. Again, many thanks for both the diplomacy, debates and great final products. Best, peck >Dear Keith, Peck and Eystein, > >as you'll have seen from Tom C's replies to my fairly direct requests for the >data that went into his MWP >figure, he seems somehow reluctant to send it to me and prefers me to find it >myself (including >spending a week re-assembling a Mongolian composite). I have no time to do >this, so have instead >reverted to using the very similar data that we already had. I'm sure it's so >similar that it tells the same >story. > >So, the attached file is my latest attempt at the MWP figure. It shows 8 >local/regional proxy series, >normalised over a common period after filtering to the 20-year and longer time >scale. It also shows a >composite mean, and no temperature scale. The period covered is 850 to 1350. > >What do you think? Hopefully it is what you want. > >I've started on the SH figure, having received data from Ricardo and borehole >series for SH, S. Africa and >Australia from Jason/Henry. I need to sort out Tasmania / New Zealand >instrumental data - Ed has this, >though I could extract appropriate boxes from the Jone et al. gridded data set >if necessary. > >I'll include these series: > >S American trees*2 plus instrumental T overlaid > >S African and Australian boreholes (must also overlay instrumental T to >explain why values are all >negative - due to early sampling prior to strongest warmng) > >Tasmanian and New Zealand trees*2 plus instrumental T) > >It may be Friday by the time I get this one done. > >Cheers > >Tim > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccar4_mwpbox.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0008C3A0) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2006. 2005-07-26 16:38:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jul 26 16:38:43 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Revised CQs to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Agree on lower atmosphere. Not sure on 2). Your first suggestion is probably better, but the second covers more of the message I was trying to convey. So go with the second. Cheers Phil At 15:24 26/07/2005, you wrote: Phil I am having trouble with one sentence: it is not right English wise. Temperature estimates for the lower parts of the atmospheric column (~2-8km), despite being different quantities than those measured at the surface, show similar warming rates (within the error estimates of the two datasets) to the surface since 1958 (from radiosondes) and from 1979 (from satellites). 1) Suggest "lower atmosphere" instead of lower parts of the atmospheric column: don't like "parts" 2) The "despite being different quantities" does not work. We could say "a physically distinct region" or despite being independent of those at the surface Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Updated the pdf directory. Sent some revisions to Lisa for the references. Some title changes so sent pdfs where needed. Here's my mods to CQ3.2. They are red on my machine. Changes to the other CQs are only to make the text WG Body Text. I'll now go through your revised attachment and approve or whatever. Mark New should then arrive. He should be gone by 4pm, by which time you'll likely be in . Don't forget to get Lisa to email me with any problems in the refs. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3844. 2005-07-26 16:55:44 ______________________________________________________ cc: David Easterling , trenbert@ucar.edu, Aiguo Dai , l.alexander@bom.gov.au, Byron Gleason date: Tue Jul 26 16:55:44 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: DTR follow-up to: "Russell Vose" Russ, The work with Adrian will help in the long-term, but not in the short term here (i.e. Aug 12). Let's discuss that possibility later. Also can you arrange for WWR91-00 to get sent at some time. Is it all on a CD, for example. That would be fine. If books have been produced, they are always useful - and do get used in our library. We would like them, not asap, so if books are available, they can come on a slow boat. The HC said they had found some errors with station level and SLP. It was Rob Allan, so only looking at pressure. As for the matter in hand. Can you send this group, time series plots for 1950-2004 for annual max/min/dtr, so we can compare with the figure we currently have in the draft ? Dave a copy of this. Maybe plot with/without the suspect Argentinian stations. An issue with these plots might be the last 2-3 years. Do they significantly impact the trends, for example? Aiguo's data must use synops for 2001-4. You note problems using this source via your pt 7 earlier. We do need resolution, but I'm not sure we will get it. Cheers Phil At 15:26 26/07/2005, Russell Vose wrote: Phil: Thanks for the feedback. How much longer would you recommend I continue to look at regional-scale discrepancies? I'm wondering because my data "sensitivity" tests aren't having a huge impact. For instance, I removed all Argentinian stations derived from GHCN-Daily (i.e., the those with data disagreements with other sources from 1984-87). The DTR trends dropped as a result, which was expected, but most trends are still slightly positive in that area. As far as the work with Adrian Simmons goes -- might be a really useful Q/A tool. We should discuss further because it could impact how I merge stations in the future. The global/annual DTR trend from 1979-2004 is 0.0036 C/dec if you include the suspect Argentinian stations and -0.0033 C/dec if you exclude them. Neither is anywhere close to statistically significant. Both are based on a 1979-2004 base period, 21 years of data, etc. We might have sent the WWR 1991-2000 data to the HC. Hope they got the clean data! Just let me know when you want it. Regarding the impending deadline -- I'm on it, or it's on me! Phil Jones wrote: Russ, Thanks for the summary. The results you're getting in 4) and 5) seem to confirm that you've got the overall numbers right, but the detail for South America and other regions will be where the goodness of the results stands or falls. So, continue the work on sorting this out. The work we planned with Adrian Simmons with the ERA-40 data would seem more important. This highlighted a few problems with the CRU data for mean temperature. My guess is that a similar comparison might highlight many more problems, most of which would likely be resolved through looking at the issues of dataset construction that rest of the decisions you allude to in 7). The points you make in 7) just highlight how difficult it is to put together datasets of this kind, particularly when trying to use daily and hourly data. We are working to a tight deadline, as you know. What is the DTR trend over all for 1979-2004? In the longer term I'd like to get a copy of the WWR dataset for the 1990s. The HC seem to have a copy of this by the way ! No rush, as I've far too much on at the moment. Cheers Phil At 22:37 25/07/2005, Russell Vose wrote: Hi guys... About two weeks ago I received several e-mails expressing surprise (and concern) over Fig. 3.2.11, the global map of gridded DTR trends for 1979-2004. Over the past few days I've conducted several sanity checks to address these concerns. In general, these checks indicate that the analysis is accurate over large spatial scales, although some areas may be suspect due to limitations in the underlying station network. In the following I discuss the various checks performed as well as the results obtained therein. 1. As a first step I double-checked the calculations by hand and didn't catch any problems. 2. I computed trends for 1950-93, the Easterling et al. analysis period, using exactly the same base period as in the Science paper. As global/annual trends derived from the "NCDC" dataset were within 0.02 C/dec of Dave's results (slight differences are to be expected given differences in spatial coverage). Furthermore, trend maps prepared from the NCDC dataset are VERY similar to Easterling et al. 3. I evaluated trends for 1979-2004 using two record length thresholds: 18 years (67%) and 21 years (80%). Note that the former was used in the map you received a couple of weeks ago. The latter contains slightly less noise, but the patterns are essentially the same. Specifically, both maximum and minimum temperature increased over virtually all areas except northwestern Australia and parts of southern South America. As already discussed in various e-mails, the DTR pattern was much more variable, with somewhat surprising increases in the same areas (as well as the United States and Europe). 4. I took Phil's suggestion and compared the max/min trends in the NCDC dataset to the mean temperature trend in GHCN version 2.0, which is used here operationally. For 1979-2004, the maximum temperature trend is 0.284 C/dec, the minimum temperature trend is 0.280 C/dec, and the mean temperature trend is 0.269 C/dec (again, slight difference likely results from differences in spatial coverage). Few areas have had decreasing mean temperature trends during that period, but those that did almost always had a decrease in the maximum and/or minimum (e.g., southern South America, northwestern Australia). 5. I followed up on another of Phil's suggestions and evaluated trends from 1950-2004 (using a base period of 1979-2004, requiring 18 years of data during the base period and 36 during the trend period -- not that the results are very sensitive to these thresholds). As expected, the DTR map is much smoother than for 1979-2004. On the global scale, the maximum temperature trend was 0.144 C/dec, the minimum was 0.204 C/dec, and the DTR was -0.058 C/dec. The maximum and minimum trends are considerably larger than Easterling et al. (1997) whereas the DTR is smaller. 6. I have made numerous time series plots for southern South America in an effort to explain the somewhat surprising trends there. At first I was highly confident in my data for that area because it is a compendium of records from the Easterling et al. (1997) paper, the new addition of World Weather Record (which no one has yet), CLIMAT reports, and GHCN-Daily. In many cases I have data for the same station from more than one source, and the time series plots suggest that the data during the overlap periods are very similar. However, by the end of today I had identified 13 stations that may have suspect data from 1984-87. Specifically, the GHCN-Daily data for this period disagrees with the other sources in a manner which may result in an increasing DTR trend. Unfortunately, I have no way of knowing which source is correct (majority doesn't rule in this business). I'll try to sort that out in the next day or so. 7. For the record, we actually computed monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature for all stations in the Integrated Surface Hourly (i.e., synoptic) database for the entire period of record. There are many decisions one must make along the way (e.g., what observation time should one use, should one make assumptions about missing "period quantities", how many days must have data when computing a monthly mean). We basically found those decisions had a huge impact on the results. Consequently, I made only very limited use of these data in the analysis -- basically applied them to fill a few holes or extend the record when the agreement seemed reasonable for certain quantitative checks and on time series plots. -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2124. 2005-07-26 17:13:55 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jul 26 17:13:55 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Natural GH effect] to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, I remember the discussions, but I've not seen this attachment before. It might have been posted on the WGI web site? I was aware that CQ3.2 was supposed to include urban issues. I've been ignoring it as it just confuses the message the QACC is trying to convey. I'm off home now. I'll think about this overnight. Each QACC would be better after each section, like the boxes. This might mean renumbering. It will also mean moving some figures and their renumbering? Cheers Phil At 16:07 26/07/2005, you wrote: Hi all I just found out I am supposed to help do another CQ: on water vapor and the natural greenhouse effect. Help! Anyway, I was also sent this attachment, which I don't think I had seen before. I recall the meetings on this in Beijing. Several points affect us immediately 1) The CQ's are now labeled : QACCS (Questions about Climate Change Science) - that reeks of a committee decision, doesn't it? 2) In item 4 there are suggestions for CQ3.2 to add stuff on urban effects. So for the moment I have taken the short para from the exec summary and put it in there as a place holder. 3) In item 5 it suggests placing the QACCS in the text at the appropriate places, rather than at the end. This is a bit weird in that the order and numbering is fixed and so QACCS 3.2 will come before QACCS 3.1. It is also apt to disrupt the text somewhat although it makes the figures more complementary. Si maybe we can place it at the end of major sections, not really embedded? Please comment about the latter. I gather we don't have to do this, but perhaps we should? It also means relabeling all the references to CQ to QACCS. Henceforth you will not see CQ any more. Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4178. 2005-07-27 16:38:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Jul 27 16:38:28 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Figure for AR4 to: Kevin Trenberth OK. Not sure where it could go then. Lisa's map is much more spotty than a schematic. Phil At 16:23 27/07/2005, you wrote: I put them all together: that schematic is from Groisman 2005. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, My view here was that this could replace the schematic we have (3.8.2), unless we now have one instead of that from the Groisman et al. (2005) paper. Phil At 15:02 27/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi all At present we do not have the figure Lisa sent on precvipitation in our chapter. Should we? If so should we replace one or add it? Kevin Lisa Alexander wrote: All, Oops - sorry I can't spell. Please find new graph attached. I've plotted anomalies as bars like in the temperature plots. Phil, you were right - zero line is 22.53%. Caption:- Observed trends (%) per decade for 1951-2003 for the contribution to total annual precipitation from very wet days i.e. (R95p/PRCPTOT)*100. Trends were only calculated for grid boxes where both PRCPTOT and R95p had at least 40 years of data during this period and had data until at least 1999. Black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level. Below the map is the global annual time series anomalies (with respect to 1961-1990) defined as the percentage change from the base period average (22.5%). The red line shows a 21-term binomial fit to the data to show decadal variations. Cheers. Lisa. -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Tuesday, 26 July 2005 8:26 PM To: Lisa Alexander; Kevin Trenberth; Klein Tank, Albert Subject: RE: Figure for AR4 Lisa, Thanks for all this. The temperature ones look fine now. For the precip plot, the title needs to say 'contribution', so add the 't'. As with the temperature, it would be best if the map and the time series were in the same units, so can you plot the time series as % anomaly rather than % of the total contribution. The plot should be the same. Maybe you can add to the caption that zero is 22.5% of the annual total. It looks about this number for 1961-90. We can do this if you give us the number. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil At 10:29 26/07/2005, Lisa Alexander wrote: Hi All, I have redone the PDF's with the new subset of stations (this makes very little difference). Phil, you wanted the number of stations used in the graphs so I've included that too. Cheers. Lisa. -----Original Message----- From: Lisa Alexander Sent: Tuesday, 26 July 2005 4:41 PM To: 'Kevin Trenberth'; Phil Jones Cc: Klein Tank, Albert; David Parker Subject: RE: Figure for AR4 Hi all, I have converted the temperature maps and timeseries to days and used the same y-axis for each of the timeseries plots. Revised caption should be: Observed trends (days) per decade for 1951 to 2003 for the percentile temperature indices (a) cold nights (TN10p), (b) warm nights (TN90p), (c) cold days (TX10p), (d) warm days (TX90p). Trends were only calculated for grid boxes that had at least 40 years of data during this period and had data until at least 1999. Black lines enclose regions where trends are significant at the 5% level. Below each map is the global annual time series anomalies (with respect to 1961-1990). The red line shows a 21-term binomial fit to the data to show decadal variations. Trends are significant at the 5% level for all the indices shown using a modified Kendall tau test. From Alexander et al. (2005a). I have also created the updated R95pT map and timeseries plot. The map is not currently in the paper but I am going to add it into Fig 9. Note that R95pT is only defined where PRCPTOT and R95p both exist. The R95pT map is as the temperature map but for decadal trends (%) of the contribution to total annual precipitation from very wet days. The timeseries is shown as actual percentage contribution (as in the paper) but could be changed to anomalies for consistency with the temperature plots if required. Finally, I will have to check the PDF's since a slightly different US network has been used but I will send you an updated plot if necessary. Cheers. Lisa. -----Original Message----- From: Kevin Trenberth [[2]mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu] Sent: Tuesday, 26 July 2005 12:34 AM To: Phil Jones Cc: Klein Tank, Albert; Lisa Alexander; David Parker Subject: Re: Figure for AR4 Hi all Thanks for being so responsive, especially Lisa. Agree with Phil's assessment. I would point out that precip is in another category and % is much more appropriate there as it provides a normalization and makes more physical sense. The latter comes from Clausius-Clapeyron which expresses change in saturation vapor pressure as function of itself plus T etc. Thus it is a logarithmic relation de/e = d (ln e) or de/e is a fraction = percent. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Lisa, Albert, Agree that the paper and the IPCC plots should be in the same units. Also the maps and the time series plots should be in the same units, and agree that days/decade are the most easily understood. The 4 temperature- related indices (warm/cold nights/days) can be in these units. The precip plot (R95pT) currently isn't in, but should with its map replace what is currently there for 3.8.2. By the way Lisa, the plot you sent (once in consistent units) will be with common question 3.1 on changes in extremes. For the text on temperature-related indices we will be using two of the panels (cold/warm nights) - top two plots from Figure 3 of the paper. If these plots have been altered by any of the updated data (it would seem not) then can you send revised plots. So, in summary, I think the consensus for the 4 temp indices will be days/decade. For David, the change in units should make no difference to the REML trends. Cheers Phil At 08:44 25/07/2005, Klein Tank, Albert wrote: Hi Lisa, Thanks for the updates. Yes, I would prefer IPCC (and the paper) to present all temperature indices results (time series plots, maps, tables) in days/decade, which I think avoids confusion about the calculated trends. I have done this in the past for Europe and the Pune paper, but I am aware that others have also used %. Albert. -----Original Message----- From: Lisa Alexander [[3]mailto:L.Alexander@bom.gov.au] Sent: maandag 25 juli 2005 07:56 To: Kevin Trenberth; Klein Tank, Albert Cc: Phil Jones; David Parker Subject: RE: Figure for AR4 Hi All, OK there seems to be some confusion (I must confess I'm a bit confused myself!). Do you want me to put either or both the timeseries and maps as % or days? I changed the timeseries plots into days as requested (hence why the y-axis was different) but I didn't change the gridded maps. I have now redone the maps and timeseries using updated data. The main changes are that additional data have been added over Brazil and Africa (precip only) and a more homogeneous US station network has been used. For some of the indices this has reduced the decorrelation length scales but for others (particularly precip) the correlations have improved. Hence you might note some slight differences in coverage in the new plots. I have also recalculated the timeseries using the new dataset. The attached plot shows the trends on the maps as % (index measure) per decade and the timeseries are shown as anomalies (as in the paper). I'm also attaching the actual global timeseries (% temperature, fraction precip as before) for David to calculate the REML trends. I can see that trends of days might be more understandable but all trends in the paper were calculated using the units pertaining to each particular index. Albert, as a co-author of the paper would you prefer to see the trends of both the maps and timeseries as days per decade? If we can come to a consensus, I would be willing to redo the diagrams if you thought this would make the results clearer (bearing in mind that I haven't received both reviews back yet). Cheers. Lisa. -----Original Message----- From: Kevin Trenberth [[4]mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu] Sent: Saturday, 23 July 2005 6:29 AM To: Albert Klein Tank; Lisa Alexander Cc: Phil Jones; David Parker Subject: Figure for AR4 Hi all, esp Lisa: I was going thru stuff on the figure and I am not sure we have it right. Albert suggested that the change in units of the time series makes it days instead of %. I do notice some small discrepancies with the original if it is % in relative values rescaled . [Is it that 10% is 10% of 365 so it scales to 36.5 days?] The problem is the maps are in %. So shouldn't we do the time series in % too? We can add explanation in terms of days in the text or cpation perhaps? Lisa does this mean the panels for the time series need to be redone with % scaling? Hopefully all the same. Or can we explain what the time series is and why the maps are %? Thanks Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [5]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [6]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [7]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------- - ---- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [8]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [9]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [10]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [11]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [12]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [13]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [14]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [15]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 429. 2005-07-28 01:17:13 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 01:17:13 +0200 from: Fortunat Joos subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] introduction 6.2.1 - 6.4.1 holocene solar. to: Jonathan Overpeck , Eystein Jansen Hi Peck and Eystein, here my general comment on the introduction and specific comments on section 6.2.1 and 6.4.1. 6.1 and 6.2.1: Well done! (1) Perhaps, words such as 'significant' and other value judgment terms could be used somewhat less. e.g. 'With proper care, current methodologies alloww more accurate age models' more accurate than what? We always hope that things are done with proper care. (2) The following sentence must in my opinion be deleted: 'but also note that new work reveals that cosmogeninc-isotope-derived estimates of solar forcing for the Holocene are not likely as well-constrained as commonly thought.' This is a very sweeping statement that is not backed up by the chapter text. It is also a very policy sensitive statement. We are either able to firmly support that or to drop it. I suspect that the paleo community would be divided about this. Scott Lehmann has just shown me a plot with a really nice correlatin between d18O in N-pachy in the Norht-Atlatnic and sunspots over the past 400 years. Yes, there appears to be a link. I also doubt that some of the existing work, e.g. Fleitman etc can be dismissed so easily. section 6.4.1: (3) I also think that the Holocene text on solar needs some readjustments. Linking the studies suggesting solar changes and those with NADW variations seems a somewhat improper comparison. The present text reads: 'Based on the correlation between changes in atmospheric concentrations of cosmogenic isotopes (10Be or 14C) and climate proxy records, some authors argue that solar activity may be the driver for an organised centennial to millennial scale variability (e.g., (Bond et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2003) (Karlen, 1996) (Wang et al., 2005b), whereas others point to modes of variability driven by processes within the climate system, for instance related to the deep ocean circulation (Bianchi and McCave, 1999) (Duplessy et al., 2001) (Oppo et al., 2003) (Marchal et al., 2002).' I suggest to change it to something along the following line. "'Based on the correlation between changes in atmospheric concentrations of cosmogenic isotopes (10Be or 14C) and climate proxy records, many studies suggest that solar activity may be a driver for centennial to millennial scale variability (e.g., (Bond et al., 2001; Fleitmann et al., 2003) (Karlen, 1996) (Wang et al., 2005b). The importance of (forced or unforced) modes of variability within the climate system, for instance related to the deep ocean circulation has been pointed out (Bianchi and McCave, 1999) (Duplessy et al., 2001) (Oppo et al., 2003) (Marchal et al., 2002)." With best regards, Fortunat Quoting Fortunat Joos : > Hi Stefan, Peck and all, > > Here an update on the abrupt event figure and the figure caption. There were > some lost lines in the one send yesterday - please delete. I have now also > numbered some of the D/O events and the A1 to A4 events. > > The purpose of the figure is to demonstrate the asynchrounous evolution of NH > and SH temperatuere and the magnitude of the GHG changes during abrupt > events. > > Clearly, it would be great if the figure could be amended by other > information, > e.g. from the land or sediment records. We may also think about indicating > the > local Greenland temperatre change for the bigger events. > > Any ideas, suggestions, comments are welcomed. > > Peck: please include ERIC MONNIN as a Contributing author. > > Eric has synchronized the Taylor Dome and Dome C data on the GRIP time scale > and > helped me greatly to put toghether the records for the abrupt event and for > the > LGM-box figures. > > With best regards, > > Fortunat > > Quoting Fortunat Joos : > > > Hi, > > > > Here finally the abrupt event figure plus an update of the LGM-box figure. > > Will provide figure caption, section 6.6. text and shortened LGM-box > > tomorrow. > > > > With best regards, > > > > Fortunat > > > > -- > > e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; > > > > Until November 23 > > National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD > > 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 > > ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) > > > > home address: > > 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 > > ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) > > > > After November 24 > > Climate and Environmental Physics > > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > > Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > > > > > > > -- > e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; > > Until November 23 > National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD > 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 > ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) > > home address: > 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 > ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) > > After November 24 > Climate and Environmental Physics > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > > -- e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; Until November 23 National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) home address: 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) After November 24 Climate and Environmental Physics Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 1169. 2005-07-28 09:37:18 ______________________________________________________ cc: Susan Solomon date: Thu Jul 28 09:37:18 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: New versions to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin/Susan, I'll look over 3.9. A quick look at the back references to sections which contain the detail summarized here, suggests that you've got the right level of section. I guess we could add a sentence to say that this/these are the principal section(s), but the whole of the x.x section is likely also relevant. I've added Susan in to show what we're doing. It might be appropriate for other chapters. Part of my reason was traceability, but also we are referring to subsequent sections in Chapters 4 and 5. The figures seem to be coming along well. Pdfs are also. I'll send another reminder about these out later today, when I've had one last look for a few of them. I'll attach section numbers as there are so few now. Cheers Phil The bulletted points and back references are below. · Global-mean surface temperatures show overall warming of 0.75ºC over the 19012004 period although rates of temperature rise are much greater after 1979. Both land surface air temperatures and SST show warming although land regions have warmed at a faster rate than the oceans for both hemispheres in the past few decades, consistent with the much greater mass and thermal inertia of the oceans. Some areas have not warmed in recent decades, and a few have cooled although not significantly. [3.2.2] · The warming of the climate is consistent with a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions. The latter is due to an earlier last day of frost in spring rather than a later start to the frost season in autumn. The increase in the number of daily warm extremes and reduction in cold extremes across over 70% of land regions studied have been most marked at night over the 1951-2003 period. The greater increase in nighttime as opposed to daytime temperatures has continued. [3.8.2.1] · Widespread (but not ubiquitous) decreases in continental DTR since the 1950s occur with increases in cloud amounts, as expected from the impact of cloud cover on solar heating of the surface. [3.2.2; 3.4.3] · The temperature increases are consistent with the observed nearly worldwide reduction in mountain glacier mass and extent. A few regions of the world where mountain glacier termini are determined by winter precipitation totals, as opposed to summer temperatures, do show some advances, but these are consistent with changes in circulation and associated increases in winter precipitation (e.g., southwestern Norway, parts of coastal Alaska, southern Chile and Fjordland of the South Island of New Zealand). Tropical ice caps in South America, Africa and Tibet have all shown remarkable declines in recent decades. If continued, some may disappear within the next 30 years. Reduction in mass of such glaciers depends on local heat budgets, which is not necessarily reflected in local temperature changes. The temperature records all show a slight warming, but nowhere near the magnitude required to explain the rapid demise of the many of the ice caps. [4.5] · Snow cover has decreased in many NH regions, particularly in the spring season, consistent with greater increases in spring as opposed to autumn temperatures in mid-latitude regions. The decrease is accompanied by increased active layer thickness above permafrost and decreased seasonally frozen ground depths. [3.3.2.3; 4.2.4, 4.8] · Sea-ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in the spring and summer seasons, and patterns of the changes are consistent with regions showing a temperature increase, although changes in winds are also a major factor. Decreases are found in the length of the freeze season of river and lake ice. [3.2.2.3; 4.3, 4.4, 5.3.3] · Surface temperature variability and trends since 1979 are consistent with those estimated by most analyses of satellite retrievals of lower-tropospheric temperatures, provided the latter are adequately adjusted for all issues of satellite drift, orbit decay, different satellites and stratospheric influence on the T2 records, and also with ERA-40 estimates of lower-tropospheric temperatures. The range from different datasets of global surface warming since 1979 is 0.15 to 0.18 compared to 0.12 to 0.19 K decade^-1 for MSU estimates of lower tropospheric temperatures. [3.4.1] · Stratospheric temperature estimates from radiosondes, satellites (T4) and reanalyses are in qualitative agreement recording a cooling of between 0.3 and 0.8ºC decade^-1 since 1979. Increasing evidence suggests increasing warming with altitude from 1979 to 2004 from the surface through much of the troposphere in the tropics, cooling in the stratosphere, and a higher tropopause, consistent with expectations from observed increased greenhouse gases and changes in stratospheric ozone. Over extratropical land, the larger warming at night is associated with larger surface temperature changes. [3.4.1] · Radiation changes at the top-of the atmosphere from the 1980s to 1990s, possibly ENSO related in part, appear to be associated with reductions in tropical cloud cover, and are linked to changes in the energy budget at the surface and in observed ocean heat content in a consistent way. [3.4.3; 3.4.4] · Surface specific humidity has also generally increased after 1976 in close association with higher temperatures over both land and ocean. Consistent with a warmer climate, total column water vapour has increased over the global oceans by 1.2 ± 0.3% from 1988 to 2004, consistent in patterns and amount with changes in SST and a fairly constant relative humidity. Upper tropospheric water vapour has also increased in ways such that relative humidity remains about constant, providing a major positive feedback to radiative forcing. [3.4.2] · Over land a strong negative correlation is observed between precipitation and surface temperature in summer and in low latitudes throughout the year, and areas that have become wetter, such as the eastern United States, have not warmed as much as other land areas. Increased precipitation is associated with increases in cloud and surface wetness, and thus increased evaporation. Although records are sparse, continental-scale estimates of pan evaporation show decreases, due to decreases in surface radiation associated with increases in clouds, changes in cloud properties, and increases in air pollution in different regions from 1970 to 1990. There is tentative evidence to suggest that this has reversed in recent years. The inferred enhanced evaporation and reduced temperature increase is physically consistent with enhanced latent versus sensible heat fluxes from the surface in wetter conditions. [3.3.5; 3.4.4.2] · Surface observations of cloud cover changes over land exhibit coherent variations on interannual to decadal time scales which are positively correlated with gauge-based precipitation measurements. [3.4.3] · Consistent with rising amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere, increases in the numbers of heavy precipitation events (e.g., 90/95^th percentile) have been reported from many land regions, even those where there has been a reduction in total precipitation. Increases have also been reported for rarer precipitation events (1 in 50 year return period), but only a few regions have sufficient data to assess such trends reliably. [3.4.2; 3.8.2.2] · Patterns of precipitation change are much more spatially- and seasonally-variable than temperature change, but where significant changes do occur they are consistent with measured changes in streamflow. [3.3.4] · Droughts have increased in various parts of the world. The regions where they have occurred seem to be determined largely by changes in SSTs, especially in the tropics, through changes in the atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Inferred enhanced evaporation and drying associated with warming and decreased precipitation are important factors in increases in drought. In the western United States, diminishing snow pack and subsequent summer soil moisture reductions have also been a factor. In Australia and Europe, direct links to warming have been inferred through the extreme nature of high temperatures and heat waves accompanying drought. [3.3.4, QACCS 3.3, 3.8.3, 4.x.x] · Changes in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades have been pronounced as freshening has occurred in the North Atlantic and also south of 25°S, while salinity has increased in the tropics and subtropics, especially in the upper 500 m. The implication is that there have been increases in moisture transport by the atmosphere from the subtropics to higher latitudes, in association with changes in atmospheric circulation, including the NAO, thereby increasing precipitation over the northern ocean and in adjacent land areas (as observed). [3.3.2, 3.3.3, 5.3.2, 5.5.3] · Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation are apparent. Increasing westerlies have been present in both hemispheres as enhanced annular modes. In the NH, the NAM and NAO change the flow from oceans to continents and are a major part of the wintertime observed change in storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns, especially over Europe and North Africa. In the SH, SAM changes, in association with the ozone hole, have been identified with recent contrasting trends of large warming in the Antarctic Peninsula, and cooling over interior Antarctica. [3.5, 3.6, 3.8.3] · The 19761977 climate shift toward more El Niños has affected Pacific rim countries and monsoons throughout the tropics. Over North America, ENSO and PNA-related changes appear to have led to contrasting changes across the continent, as the west has warmed more than the east, while the latter has become cloudier and wetter. [3.6, 3.7] · Variations in extratropical storminess are strongly associated mostly with changes in mean atmospheric circulation, such as changes and variations in ENSO, NAO, PDO, and SAM. Wind and significant wave height analysis support the reanalysis-based evidence for an increase in extratropical storm activity in the NH in recent decades. After the late 1990s, however, some of these variations seemed to change sign. [3.5, 3.6, 3.8.3.2] · Changes are observed to occur in the number, distribution and tracks of tropical storms that are clearly related to ENSO phases and to a slightly lesser extent to the AMO and QBO modulations. Increases in intensity and lifetimes of tropical storms since the 1970s are consistent with increases in SSTs and atmospheric water vapour. [3.8.3.1] · Sea level likely rose about 18±3 cm during the 20^th century, but increased 3.0±0.4 mm/year after 1992, when confidence increases from global altimetry measurements. During this period, glacier melt has increased ocean mass by order 1.0 mm/year, increases in ocean heat content and associated ocean expansion are estimated to contribute 1.6 mm/year, while changes in land water storage are uncertain but may have taken water out of the ocean. Isostatic rebound contributes about 0.3 mm/year. This near balance gives increased confidence that the observed sea level rise is a strong indicator of warming, and an integrator of the cumulative energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere.[4.5, 4.7, 4.9.8, 5.2, 5.5] At 23:47 27/07/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Phil I placed new versions of the figure and text files on my ftp site. I implemented your suggestion of adding section numbers to the 3.9. I used the ones from the ZOD wrt other chapters. So they may change. I also added a small piece on freezing seasons on lakes and rivers that was mentioned in the last para but not in any bullets. You may like to comment on this as some are x.x, some are y.y.y and some are z.z.z.z. In the first case the whole section is really applicable and so mentioning each subsection does not seem worthwhile. Should we go to the z.z.z.z level, as that is not in the TOC? In doing this I found that two sections in 3.8 had very similar titles and so I changed that of 3.8.3 to explicitly say tropical and extratrtopical storms and extreme events, which are the 3 subsections. The Table of contents (TOC) is all up to date, and now corrected for one subsection that was mislabeled as level 2 instead of 3. Several figures have been revised. I am out tomorrow all day but Lisa tells me she is up to w in the references. So should have a complete new version on Friday. Hopefully several of the figures will be by upgraded then too. I have a new Fig 3.3.1 but can't work with it: something wrong with it, so I've asked Dave E for a different one. Main outstanding stuff is all waiting on Dave Easterling. I have requests in to Tom Karl on the 2 CCSP figures. Following my earlier email I have responses on Figs 3.2.3: now good, 3.4.6 I did, 3.5.2, and one from Groisman. So only 7 figures not in final form. I believe we have 74 figures in the sense that they are separate files. That includes counts of 1 for several multipanel files (like some T ones or the hurricane one), but 4 for some 4 panel ones like the ENSO one, where the files were all generated anew and independently. So the good part is that 67 of them are in great shape. We actually have 48 figures counting the 2 TAR ones that will be in 3.9, and 3 in the 3 QACCS. Cheers Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5009. 2005-07-28 14:27:16 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 14:27:16 +0100 from: "Tett, Simon" subject: Bristlecones! to: Tim Osborn Tim (CC Keith), John Houghton is being quized by bits of the US senate. One question is "Whats the status of the review of the Mann hockey stick temperature curve? I understand that studies by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick suggest that it relied on the statistically insignificant bristlecone pine. Is the IPCC taking another look at that work, which forms the basis for much of todays climate change debate?" My current thoughts on an answer is to say that other reconstructions show a similar pattern (though not magnitude). However how many of the other reconstructions use the bristlecone data? [I suspect yours does not] many thanks S -- Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, University of Reading Reading RG6 6BB Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5614 Fax +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobile: +44-(0)77 538 80696 I work in Exeter about 2 days/week. E-mail: simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk 5088. 2005-07-29 10:05:20 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 10:05:20 -0600 from: Raimund Muscheler subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Solar activtiy & IPCC to: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, oyvind.paasche@bjerknes.uib.no, jto@u.arizona.edu, wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Dear all, Fortunat asked me to send you our article (submitted to Earth Science Reviews) about solar activity changes during the last 1000 years. I hope you think our discussion is useful in the context of the conflicting results about past changes in solar activity (e.g. Bard et al. & Solanki et al.). Best wishes Raimund Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Muscheler_et_al_subm_to_ESR1.pdf" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 544. 2005-07-29 15:04:55 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 29 15:04:55 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Report on increase in hurricane destructiveness] to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Will remove. Still going through Dave's revisions. Moving sections around to make it read better. Nothing on 3.3.2.5 onwards. Should be emailing revised version in 20-30 minutes. Phil At 14:50 29/07/2005, you wrote: Phil This article is nearly out: embargoed till today. So we should be able to remove that pdf and update the reference. Kevin -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Report on increase in hurricane destructiveness Date: Thu, 28 Jul 2005 16:16:04 -0400 From: Jeff Hecht [1] To: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Nature is publishing a letter by Kerry Emanuel which reports that hurricane destructiveness has incr eased over the past 30 years, as measured by duration and peak intensity of storms. He links that wi th warming of sea-surface temperatures, but notes that the increase is larger than expected from the ory. I'm curious what you think of his analysis, particularly light of your recent Perspective in Science . Why do you think his estimates of destructiveness are higher than predicted? Do you expect this tr end to continue? I spoke to someone in your office, who suggested I send you this to read. Please call me at 617-965- 3834 on Friday after you have a chance to read it. Thanks, Jeff Hecht, New Scientist magazine -- Jeff Hecht, science & technology writer [3]jeff@jeffhecht.com Boston Correspondent: New Scientist magazine Contributing Editor: Laser Focus World 525 Auburn St., Auburndale, MA 02466 USA v. 617-965-3834; fax 617-332-4760 -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [4]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [5]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 641. 2005-07-29 15:17:35 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa ,p.jones@uea.ac.uk date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 15:17:35 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Bristlecones! to: "Tett, Simon" At 14:27 28/07/2005, Tett, Simon wrote: > John Houghton is being quized by bits of the US senate. One > question is >"Whats the status of the review of the Mann hockey stick temperature >curve? I understand that studies by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick >suggest that it relied on the statistically insignificant bristlecone >pine. Is the IPCC taking another look at that work, which forms the >basis for much of todays climate change debate?" > >My current thoughts on an answer is to say that other reconstructions >show a similar pattern (though not magnitude). However how many of the >other reconstructions use the bristlecone data? [I suspect yours does >not] Hi Simon - I was away yesterday, so couldn't answer then. Hopefully it isn't too late to answer today. (1) I don't understand what they mean by describing the bristlecone pine as "statistically insignificant". (2) The Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH1999) reconstruction is only one small piece of information in today's climate change debate. (3) As far as I understand, then yes the MBH1999 reconstruction does give quite a lot of weight to a few western US tree-ring series, which are mostly bristlecone pines for the longest records. (4) Other reconstructions show similar shape (though not magnitude) and support similar conclusions (regarding the unprecedented nature of recent warmth/warming trend). This is the main argument to make, as you thought. Some of these other reconstructions do not include these bristlecones (e.g. Briffa, 2000; Crowley et al., 2003; Moberg et al., 2005; Briffa et al., 2001). Crowely and Moberg use different Bristlecone records I think. Other reconstructions do use the same Bristlecone pines (e.g., Mann and Jones, 2004). BUT the critical thing is that the studies either do not use these Bristlecone pines, or if they do use them, then they give them much more similar weighting to the other records used. I think MBH1999 is the only one that might give them a dominant weighting. (5) IPCC is assessing all published work that relates to these issues in preparation for the AR4 in 2007. This includes the McIntyre and McKitrick papers as well as papers that report results contrary to McIntyre/McKitrick, such as the paper in press by Wahl and Amman that shows the Mann et al. results are reproducible. cc'd for additional comments to Phil and Keith (when he's back). Cheers Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 571. 2005-07-29 16:12:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 29 Jul 2005 16:12:57 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: hockey stick debate to: "D.W. Pearce" Dear Dr. Pearce, Thanks for your inquiy. Indeed, there have been detailed rebuttal's by me directly (on the website "RealClimate.org" and also e.g. on the BBC, links available here: [1]http://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/Mann/news/news.html but perhaps more importantly, the claims of McIntyre and McKitrick have now been independnetly discredited independently by at least two research groups (and several others that have submitted papers for review recently). There a discussion of this (and some relevant links) on the RealClimate.org website. In particular, see the latest posting "Scientists Respond to Barton", especially the "Response of Michael Mann" that is linked to below. You might want to look specifically at the press release (and extensive supporting material provided) by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from a couple months ago, describing the work of an independent group of scientists who have established deep flaws in the McIntyre and McKitrick claims [2]http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/ammann.shtml (there is a link to the abstracts of their papers, one on them is currently iin revision, the other is in press). Also, you should note this additional paper by Rutherford et al discrediting the McIntyre and McKitrick claims, to appear next month in the "Journal of Climate" is available here (click on hyperlink for first article in list): [3]http://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/Mann/articles/articles.html I hope this information if of help to you. For independent commentary by other scientists familiar w/ the details of this work, you might contact Caspar Ammann of NCAR ([4]ammann@ucar.edu) or Gavin Schmidt of the NASA/GISS Laboratory in New York ([5]gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov), Stefan Rahmstorf of the Univ. of Potsdam, UK ([6]rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de), or Tim Osborn of the UK Met Office ([7]t.osborn@uea.ac.uk). Sincereley, mike mann I am travelling for the next 2 weeks and may be difficult to reach, but I hope this information is of some help to you. In addition, you might want to contact D.W. Pearce wrote: Dear Professor Mann, I wonder if you can help me. I recently acted as advisor to the House of Lords inquiry into climate change economics. Their Lordships were keen to take a brief look at some of the scientific controversies, even though the committee in question is an economics committee and I am an economist too. As such, they did not pass judgement on the science but recorded issues that they thought needed to be better aired. One of these was the famous hocky stick debate and the committee received quite a lot of evidence on the debate. I did my best to search the literature and your own webpage to see if anyone had published a refutation of the McKitrick/McIntyre critique which I am sure you know about. I was unable to find any refutation and the committee simply recorded that they had not seen one and they thought that some effort should be made on the part of the scientific community to make that refutation. In a review of the Lords report, one critic (Tom Burke, whom you probably won't know but is an ex-advisor to a past Secretary of State for the Environment in the UK) states that 'They (the Lords) might have tried listening to the Today programme. The author [yourself] gave a detailed rebuttal on air in February of this year. They could also have tried Google. If so they would have found links not only to Michael Mann's detailed rebuttals but also to the findings of several other research groups who, using different data and different methodologies, have reproduced Mann's orginal result in all essential respects'. Mr Burke read the Lords report rather too hastily since the other research work is referred to in the Lords Report, as are papers finding significant 'blips' in in the temperature history and to which he makes no reference. However, I have been unable to download what appear to be your broadcasts on your webpage and I wondered if you have a transcript in e-form that I might see. Alternatively you may have issued some other refutation of the McKitrick-McIntyre critique - if so I have not been able to find it. I should add that it is only this critique that the Lords referred to and not to any other. I am anxious not to mislead their Lordships, who will reply to Mr Burke. Their report will also be debated in the House of Lords later this year. If you can help this would be much appreciated. If I don't hear from you I will assume that the Lords were right in their initial statement that the debate continues. Sorry to trouble you with this. David Pearce Professor David W Pearce OBE, D.Sc tel: +44 (0)20 7679 5898 fax: +44 (0)20 7916 2772/5 [8]e-mail:d.pearce@ucl.ac.uk -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [9]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [10]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 3751. 2005-07-29 16:30:35 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Fri Jul 29 16:30:35 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Bristlecones! to: Tim Osborn , "Tett, Simon" Simon, If you go to this web page [1]http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/ammann.shtml You can click on a re-evaluation of MBH, which leads to a paper submitted to Climatic Change. This shows that MBH can be reproduced. The R-code to do this can be accessed and eventually the data - once the paper has been accepted. IPCC will likely conclude that all MM arguments are wrong and have been answered in papers that have either come out or will soon. MBH is just one curve of many - more now than there were in 2001. MBH is still in the spaghetti of curves, and is not an outlier. If there are outliers it will be Esper et al. and another one. Bristlecones are only crucial to the issue if you are MM. They misused them, by their PCA application. This is all well-known to those in the know. I have reviewed the CC paper by Wahl and Ammann. It reproduces all the mistakes MM have made, so they know how and why their results have been achieved. I can send you the paper if you want, subject to the usual rules. MBH have all responded to the same requests as IPCC got from the US Senate. Their responses are all posted at [2]http://www.realclimate.org/ The skeptics have shot themselves in the foot over this one. Cheers Phil At 15:17 29/07/2005, Tim Osborn wrote: At 14:27 28/07/2005, Tett, Simon wrote: John Houghton is being quized by bits of the US senate. One question is "Whats the status of the review of the Mann hockey stick temperature curve? I understand that studies by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick suggest that it relied on the statistically insignificant bristlecone pine. Is the IPCC taking another look at that work, which forms the basis for much of todays climate change debate?" My current thoughts on an answer is to say that other reconstructions show a similar pattern (though not magnitude). However how many of the other reconstructions use the bristlecone data? [I suspect yours does not] Hi Simon - I was away yesterday, so couldn't answer then. Hopefully it isn't too late to answer today. (1) I don't understand what they mean by describing the bristlecone pine as "statistically insignificant". (2) The Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH1999) reconstruction is only one small piece of information in today's climate change debate. (3) As far as I understand, then yes the MBH1999 reconstruction does give quite a lot of weight to a few western US tree-ring series, which are mostly bristlecone pines for the longest records. (4) Other reconstructions show similar shape (though not magnitude) and support similar conclusions (regarding the unprecedented nature of recent warmth/warming trend). This is the main argument to make, as you thought. Some of these other reconstructions do not include these bristlecones (e.g. Briffa, 2000; Crowley et al., 2003; Moberg et al., 2005; Briffa et al., 2001). Crowely and Moberg use different Bristlecone records I think. Other reconstructions do use the same Bristlecone pines (e.g., Mann and Jones, 2004). BUT the critical thing is that the studies either do not use these Bristlecone pines, or if they do use them, then they give them much more similar weighting to the other records used. I think MBH1999 is the only one that might give them a dominant weighting. (5) IPCC is assessing all published work that relates to these issues in preparation for the AR4 in 2007. This includes the McIntyre and McKitrick papers as well as papers that report results contrary to McIntyre/McKitrick, such as the paper in press by Wahl and Amman that shows the Mann et al. results are reproducible. cc'd for additional comments to Phil and Keith (when he's back). Cheers Tim Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2828. 2005-08-01 09:05:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Aug 1 09:05:07 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: End of week to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, The weekend went well. Somewhat refreshed, I'll go through the ref changes Albert has made to check that all those out really deserve to be out. Also will see what I can do with the new ones he's noticed are not in the list. I'll send this when I get through it, before I go today. As for pdfs, it seems that we're missing just 5 now (4 from people in CRU and the HC) and one from Russ Vose at NCDC. I'm off today at about 2.30pm. Have to do a number of things in the garden before tomorrow's CRU BBQ. Forecast is good. Won't be in at all tomorrow. Here after that for rest of week and all next week. Let's aim for a call on Wednesday, but the BBQ should be over about 6pm if you want to call my home on Tuesday (+44 1953 605643). Otherwise I'll call on Wednesday. Cheers Phil At 17:09 29/07/2005, you wrote: Phil I have spent all morning so far on figures. Big problems with ones from NCDC: can't open them. Also with one from Lisa: somehow the colors changed when I reformatted it. Got one from Groisman also with problems opening it. I think I have these sorted out now and will move to text and refs with Lisa. We also need to simply look at text for troublesome refs and consider option of removing them. Had email from Neville: expect comments on 3.9 from him and others next week. On the 2 CCSP figs: Tom Karl tells me they will not be avilable till 9 Aug earliest. They are still fiddling with them and Tom is off in Alaska till then. I think we should chat next week, probably about Tuesday: still got too much to do. I still have not read thru the dimmin stuff and there is one new ref I need to fold in. We need to get Albert onto checking consistency of text with refs, once those are done: are figs in ref list in text and vice versa? I also have to do CQ on water vapor with Richard Somerville. But I think we are in good shape. Have great weekend with family etc Thanks kevin. Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Off home now. Parts of 3.3 are now better, but not sure about the whole section. I spent some time a few weeks ago on 3.3.4, so think that is clear. Down to only a couple of incomplete refs/pdfs. Nothing yet from Hirabayashi. I'm just awaiting 4 pdfs and reminded the people yesterday. 2 are from the HC and 2 from CRU. Your email of Wednesday said you were nearly there with all the Figures. So, what is left that we can usefully do over the next 2 weeks. I'll have time after Tuesday to read through again, but feel this should be concentrated in certain sections. If you want to call, I'll be at home from 7-9pm tonight (7 hrs ahead) on +44 1953 605643. We're up early tomorrow to see granddaughter in Bristol all day tomorrow. Have a good weekend. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [1]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 609. 2005-08-01 11:58:49 ______________________________________________________ cc: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, jto@u.arizona.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, Edward Cook , "Ricardo Villalba" , Jason E Smerdon , Henry Pollack date: Mon, 1 Aug 2005 11:58:49 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: SH figure for IPCC AR4 to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim and SH friends - PLEASE try to get feedback to Tim asap - we're almost out of time. The Fig looks nice, thanks! Borehole issue: Are the Australasia boreholes that, or are they just Australia? I think they are the latter, unless you have more updated data from Henry et al. If only Oz, best change in the fig too. Borehole issue: using 95 confidence interval - seems ok to me - lets see what the rest of the gang says. Also, is this compatible with the estimated confidence interval in your other maintext figs - I know this latter one is somewhat unconventional, but it is 1.5 sd, no? Oxygen isotopes - complicated by non-temp issues, therefore we decided not to use in this section/figure. You got it right. Nitpicky - Replace "K" with "°C" on the y axis label. Thanks again, Peck >Dear all, > >attached is my attempt to produce a SH figure >for the draft chapter - in .ps, .pdf and .gif >forms. I tried to make it as compact as >possible, while still keeping the series >separated by a bit of white space between them. > >Here's a draft of the figure caption. Below it >are some QUESTIONS - please read to the bottom! > >Figure XXXXXX. > >Temperature reconstructions for regions in the >Southern Hemisphere: two summer temperature >series from South American tree-ring data; >annual temperature estimates from borehole >inversions for southern Africa and Australia >(derived using the approach of Pollack and >Smerdon, 2004); summer temperature series from >Tasmania and New Zealand tree-ring data (Cook et >al., 2000; 2002). The black curves show summer >or annual instrumental temperatures for each >region. All tree-ring and instrumental series >have been smoothed with a 30-year filter and >represent anomalies (K) from the 1961-1990 mean >(indicated by the horizontal lines). Thin lines >mark the 95% uncertainty range of the borehole >inversions, estimated from inter-borehole >variability. > >Cook ER, Buckley BM, D'Arrigo RD and Peterson MJ >(2000) Warm-season temperatures since 1600 BC >reconstructed from Tasmanian tree rings and >their relationship to large-scale sea surface >temperature anomalies. Climate Dynamics 16, >79-91. > >Cook ER, Palmer JG and D'Arrigo RD (2002) >Evidence for a 'Medieval Warm Period' in a 1,100 >year tree-ring reconstruction of past austral >summer temperatures in New Zealand. Geophysical >Research Letters 29, 14-1667 (doi: >10.1029/2001GL014580). > >QUESTIONS: > >RICARDO: (i) are the Patagonia series both >SUMMER temperature? (ii) please add appropriate >references for these series (iii) did you use a >30-year filter for the Patagonia, Tasmania and >New Zealand series that you sent? -- if not, >please correct what I wrote in the caption. (iv) >are the Patagonia tree-ring reconstructions and >instrumental temperatures that you sent already >expressed as anomalies from 1961-1990 -- if not, >what is the reference period and can it be >changed to 1961-1990 (it is not easy for me to >change it because I only have the filtered >series)? > >JASON/HENRY: (i) I doubled the +-1 standard >error ranges provided by Jason, to get the +-2 >SE range (~95% range?) shown in this figure -- >is that ok? > >ED: (i) are the references I used correct, or do >you have newer ones? (ii) the data that Ricardo >sent me were absolute temperatures not >anomalies, so to get the anomalies I simply >shifted the series so that it's mean matched the >instrumental temperature mean during the >calibration periods you used in these papers >(1894-1957 for NZ and 1920-1991 for TAS) - is >that the correct thing to do? (iii) for the >instrumental temperatures I simply took the >Jones grid box land temperature for the >appropriate box and used the Jan-Mar mean for NZ >and Nov-Apr mean for TAS - is that ok? > >EVERYONE: >(i) I included the 95% uncertainty range on the >boreholes because Jason sent me the necessary >data, but should it be included or not? >Obviously it's useful information, but the >tree-ring reconstructions don't have similar >ranges (although I guess someone has computed >them at some point?). >(ii) the vertical positioning of the borehole >series was done by Jason/Henry and took into >account that many boreholes were sampled before >1980, and thus before the most recent rapid >warming -- therefore they are positioned to give >a better match with the pre-1980 observations >(in fact the median of all sampling dates is the >last year used -- what is it Jason?). Should >this be mentioned in the text (together, >perhaps, with a caveat regarding the poorer >sampling in the SH compared with the NH) or in >the caption, or not at all? Also, should the >borehole time series be stopped at the median >date, rather than continued through to 2000 in >the figure? > >I'd be grateful for any other comments regarding >the figure, as well as answers to these >questions. Phil Jones took a look and asked why >we hadn't included the Law Dome d18O ice core >series from Tas van Ommen - but perhaps you've >already discussed such things in earlier emails? > >Cheers > >Tim > > > > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccar4_sh.gif (GIFf/«IC») (0008D900) >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccar4_sh.ps ( / ) (0008D901) >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipccar4_sh 1.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0008D902) >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 809. 2005-08-03 09:08:34 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Aug 3 09:08:34 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: pairing of model runs... to: alex@gvc.gu.se Alex, OK, my misunderstanding. Treat each as a separate run then. Makes life easier. Cheers Phil At 18:12 01/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, I asked Jeff Knight for assistance regarding pairing of model runs. The model runs seem to be not available in pairs as I understood his answer. See his answer below. So I'll continue with applying the extremes rountine on each single run (start with one "anthro+nat" and one "nat")?. =========================================== ... There is no sense in which the runs are paired. The experimental design is this: We perform a 1-year spin-up run for each ensemble member starting 1st December 1868. We use initial atmospheric conditions from a coupled run of HadCM3 for circa 1870 conditions. Different initial conditions are used for each member. By the end of the spin-up calculations, the initial conditions are forgotten, as the atmosphere on its own has memory for only a few months. The atmospheric states at 1st December 1869 are a combination of the response to the climate forcing factors (SST, GHG etc, and the same for all ensemble members) and a random component (which varies between ensemble members), such that each ensemble member starts with a different plausible state. We then perform the runs from 1st December 1869 to obtain the final results that are published on the web site. The ensemble members represent independent realisations of the 'weather noise' but with a consistent forced component. As such there is no pairing between ensembles as the 1/12/1869 conditions are unique for each and every run performed. I hope this helps. Please ask if you need any more information. Jeff PS. The remaining 3 all forcings and 2 natural runs will soon be added to the site. We are just awaiting resolution of a technical difficulty in getting more disk space added to the server. ================================================= regards Alex -- *************************** Alexander Walther Earth Sciences Centre Göteborg University Box 460 S-405 60 Göteborg, Sweden --------------------------- Fon: (+46)-31-7734849 Fax: (+46)-31-7731986 [1]http://www.gvc.gu.se/rcg *************************** Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4100. 2005-08-03 14:57:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 03 Aug 2005 14:57:45 +0200 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Fwd: Last Millennium section 6.5 - comments by SR] to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, Tim Osborn Hi Keith (and Tim), Eystein told me you're back in the office tomorrow, and, to simplify things for you, he asked me to resend my comments on your section so you will find them easily. One point we'll perhaps need to cover better in our chapter is the model tests of the proxy methods. David Ritson and Caspar Amman both independently seem to have concluded that Storch et al. did not implement the MBH method correctly in their model, and that is why the errors are so large (see the very different trends in the calibration period, where the proxy method should be scaled to match the climate trend). I also attach again my own little note that is currently under consideration at Science, concerning another aspect of the VS04 publication. If the ECHO-G result falls apart, the conclusion would be that all the other model tests of the proxy method confirm that it works within its stated error limits. Cheers, Stefan -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Last Millennium section 6.5 - comments by SR Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2005 12:09:33 +0200 From: Stefan Rahmstorf [1] To: Keith Briffa [2] CC: [3]wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu, Jonathan Overpeck [4], Eystein Jansen [5] References: [6] Hi Keith and all, (please everyone have a look at point (4)) I think section 6.5 is in remarkably good shape (certainly compared to my own..). There are some comments from me: (1) About the new proxy reconstructions, the section says: "Most of these are shown..." in the Figure. This immediately raises the question: why not all? Which one is not shown? This section will be scrutinised with great suspicion by some people, so we need to be careful. Can you clarify which one you left out, and why? Or can we just write: "These are shown..." That would be much nicer. (2) Several times you say "simply scaled" - would "scaled" do as well? The "simply" in this context sounds a bit like we criticise that. (3) Is "predictand" a word that everybody knows? I'd never seen it before. (4) Now here is my biggest question, that I think we need to discuss in the whole group. Figure 6.5.2-1 shows simulations of the past millennium, relative to 1500-1899 means. Is this really the best reference period? Contra: it differs from how we show the data reconstructions, i.e., relative to 1961-1990. Everyone knows what that climate actually was, since there are good instrumental data for 1961-1990, so that it makes sense to look at changes relative to that period. Nobody knows what the real 1500-1899 mean was, so this is a fictitious baseline. Pro: it gets rid of "end effects", i.e. model initialisation problems at the beginning (as in Von Storch 04), and different anthropogenic forcings used at the end (e.g. some ignore aerosols); the simulations look closer together in this way (right?) I have not formed a clear opinion on what is best. (5) Also on the figures: I like the grey bands, but here's a suggestion for improvement: instead of leaving the core region between those two bands white, I think they should also be shaded - either the same grey, or a darker shade of grey. This makes it more clear that we are talking about one, wide uncertainty band here, not about two seperate things. It had me confused at first when I saw it, even though I was there when we discussed this in Beijing. Final point: we need to keep an eye on developments concerning the model tests of the proxy method, there seem to be several important things in the pipeline there. Cheers, Stefan -- To reach me directly please use: [7]rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf [8]www.ozean-klima.de [9]www.realclimate.org -- To reach me directly please use: [10]rahmstorf@ozean-klima.de (My former addresses @pik-potsdam.de are read by my assistant Brigitta.) Stefan Rahmstorf [11]www.ozean-klima.de [12]www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\proxy_errors.pdf" 827. 2005-08-03 22:35:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 3 Aug 2005 22:35:43 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Draft of 6.5.4 Regional variability in quantities other than to: Keith Briffa , drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu, t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Eystein Jansen Hi Keith, Ed, Tim and Eystein - attached is the new section 6.5.4. for your editing and merging with the rest of 6.5. It would help if Ed, Tim and Eystein read it and gave comments to the master 6.5 integrated Keith. Here are some notes to go with the text: 1) Julie Cole rewrote the already pretty good ENSO section (and merged in some of the regional forcing stuff) 2) I agree w/ Keith that we just delete the regional forcing section 3) The Atlantic variability subsection needs Keith and Eystein to work it - Ed too. I didn't really touch it. 4) The Asian monsoon and Africa sections are new and really boiled down to keep things short and sweet (yet "regional"). I sent these sections to Ramesh and Dan O for comments/edits. If they send anything, I'll update and send to Keith. Ed - you may have some insights into the Asian monsoon section?? 5) the North American section is new also - I'm hoping Ed will work on it to make sure it's ok. I'm happy to handle the edits and send to Keith for final integration. If Keith would rather do all the editing, that's cool too. 6) as long as we're at it, you should also read the attached new exec summary bullets - at least the last 2000 year ones - the text should support the bullets. Please send any bullet comments/edits to me and Eystein. All - we got hammered in the ZOD reviews on the assertion that we get more extensive, longer droughts during warm periods. The reason was the implied implication for the future - more droughts. I tried to take a different tack this time around. Does it work? Many thanks, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\6.5.4Peck.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Ch06_RevisedDraftFODbullets.doc" 2059. 2005-08-04 08:34:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 4 08:34:25 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Out in latest J. Climate to: mann@psu.edu Mike, He's been working with Myles Allen. Tim went to the first meeting of this Dutch funded project near Oxford last week. Tim said they were doing some odd things, like correlating all the proxy series they had with CET (yes CET)! Even the few SH proxies they have. The others who went to the meeting were Zorita and Moberg. Zorita was still showing the GKSS run with Moberg series, even though its forcing is too large, it doesn't have aerosols in the 20th century and has spin up problems for the first 200 years. Meeting wasn't that productive according to Tim. There was a belief amongst those there that all trees you used have lost low-freq, but this isn't true as you know. Also, it was a good job Keith wasn't there (he didn't go as his father died the weekend before and he's not been in CRU since) as Martin assumed that RCS was developed by Esper (who also wasn't there). Tim put them right on this one, but RCS isn't applicable for normal tree sites, nor useful for bristlecones. Tim said Esper was wrong is his use of RCS, but they wouldn't accept that as Esper wasn't there to defend himself! Basically only Tim knew anything about proxy data especially trees. Tim got the impression that they wanted to find that MBH is wrong. Given the previous comment, as you weren't there they are using double standards. So, in conclusion, act carefully. Don't jump in, but some carefully thought through comments should be productive. Suggest they read the RevG article. Martin isn't associated with the contrarians, but he's not in possession of the all the facts. He isn't aware of Casper's work, nor your latest study which you sent the other day, nor Rutherford et al. There still seems to be a belief in these lower responding proxies. This is something we want to work on more here, as the only way it seems to show that these lower-freq proxies aren't that great is to use higher-freq proxies. When you're back or sometime, can you remind Scott to send your latest set of proxies. I'll have some time in the autumn to work on them as the AR4 should be in by Aug 12. Science should be publishing 3 papers on the MSU issue by the end of Aug or early Sept. This is Mears/Wentz, Santer et al. and Sherwood et al. Latter shows that sondes are only truly reliable when flown at night. Daytime ones have all manner of problems with heating, just like air temps on board ships - hence the NMAT series. I'll forward another email for interest. Cheers Phil At 03:40 04/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, Thanks, yes I'm in China now. As you might imagine, ,things have been very busy, but calming down a bit. Looks like Barton may be backing down... Martin Juckes has an invited talk in my session. I invited him, because he was working w/ Stott et al, and so I assume he was legit, and not associated with the contrarians. But if he's associated w/ the Dutch group, he may actually be a problem. Do you have additional information about him and what he has been up to? Thanks, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Good to hear it is out ! Hope the changeover is going OK and life is getting back to normal. If you're not gone to China yet - you'll meet someone called Martin Dukes (?). He's giving a talk at your session. He knows about maths etc but not much about paleo ! Might need some education, but is probably OK. Not met him, but Tim has. Doing some worked funded by the Dutch govt on the hockey stick. Cheers Phil At 04:05 03/08/2005, you wrote: Dear Colleagues, FYI, two papers attached: First (reprint), Rutherford et al, is now out in latest issue of Journal of Climate. This paper, aside from addressing other more scientifically-worthwhile issues, also happens to discredit most of the McIntyre and McKitrick claims. Second (preprint), Mann et al, is formally in press (i.e., has gone off to the AMS production staff) in Journal of Climate. This paper strongly challenges the conclusions of von Storch et al (2004), and raises some methodological issues w/ the approach used by Moberg et al (2005). Feel free to pass along to others. Thanks Mike -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2998. 2005-08-04 09:49:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 4 09:49:54 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Out in latest J. Climate to: mann@psu.edu Mike, Gabi was supposed to be there but wasn't either. I think Gabi isn't being objective as she might because of Tom C. I recall Keith telling me that her recent paper has been rejected, not sure if outright or not. Gabi sees the issue from a D&A perspective, not whether any curve is nearer the truth, but just what the envelope of the range might be. There is an issue coming up in IPCC. Every curve needs error bars, and having them is all that matters. It seems irrelevant whether they are right or how they are used. Changing timescales make this simple use impractical. We have a new version of HadCRUT just submitted, so soon the'll be HadCRUT3v and CRUTEM3v. The land doesn't change much. This has errors associated with each point, but the paper doesn't yet discuss how to use them. I'll attach this paper. Only just been submitted to JGR - not in this format though. This format lays it out better. Thanks for reminding Scott. Cheers Phil At 08:48 04/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, Thanks for the heads up. Will be prepared for this then. I thought that Gabi Hegerl was involved with this guy? Doesn't she know better? It is disturbing that she hasn't set them straight on this. By the way, as you may or may not have heard, its been discovered that there is a major error in Von Storch et al '04 that they now appear to be trying to hide (they have some obscure article in an Italian journal where they attempt to justify the error). There are several comments that have been or are soon to be submitted to Science about this. As it turns out, they introduces a spurious step in their supposed implementation of the MBH98 procedure in which they detrended the series first, gives completely wrong results.. Caspar Ammann and Gene Wahl and David Ritson of Stanford have both independently discovered this, because they noticed that amplitude of the calibrated signal in VS04 scales with the signal-to-noise ratio--this was the first clue that there was a major problem. There may be calls upon Science for them to retract their paper. The results are completely wrong, aside from the problems w/ the GKSS simulation. You can expect to hear more about this soon... I'll remind Scott about the proxies. He and Zhang are in the process of screening the proxy series for temperature signals, etc. Once they've done that, should be more useful. I expect we'll be able to get you some stuff by late August. I did hear about the 3 papers coming out in Science. Apparently Donald Kennedy is doing an editorial that will discuss this in the context of the whole Barton business. That should be interesting...There will be articles by both Gavin and Steve Sherwood on "RealClimate" in coordination with the publication of the papers in Science Express. This should help turn the debate around. talk to you later, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, He's been working with Myles Allen. Tim went to the first meeting of this Dutch funded project near Oxford last week. Tim said they were doing some odd things, like correlating all the proxy series they had with CET (yes CET)! Even the few SH proxies they have. The others who went to the meeting were Zorita and Moberg. Zorita was still showing the GKSS run with Moberg series, even though its forcing is too large, it doesn't have aerosols in the 20th century and has spin up problems for the first 200 years. Meeting wasn't that productive according to Tim. There was a belief amongst those there that all trees you used have lost low-freq, but this isn't true as you know. Also, it was a good job Keith wasn't there (he didn't go as his father died the weekend before and he's not been in CRU since) as Martin assumed that RCS was developed by Esper (who also wasn't there). Tim put them right on this one, but RCS isn't applicable for normal tree sites, nor useful for bristlecones. Tim said Esper was wrong is his use of RCS, but they wouldn't accept that as Esper wasn't there to defend himself! Basically only Tim knew anything about proxy data especially trees. Tim got the impression that they wanted to find that MBH is wrong. Given the previous comment, as you weren't there they are using double standards. So, in conclusion, act carefully. Don't jump in, but some carefully thought through comments should be productive. Suggest they read the RevG article. Martin isn't associated with the contrarians, but he's not in possession of the all the facts. He isn't aware of Casper's work, nor your latest study which you sent the other day, nor Rutherford et al. There still seems to be a belief in these lower responding proxies. This is something we want to work on more here, as the only way it seems to show that these lower-freq proxies aren't that great is to use higher-freq proxies. When you're back or sometime, can you remind Scott to send your latest set of proxies. I'll have some time in the autumn to work on them as the AR4 should be in by Aug 12. Science should be publishing 3 papers on the MSU issue by the end of Aug or early Sept. This is Mears/Wentz, Santer et al. and Sherwood et al. Latter shows that sondes are only truly reliable when flown at night. Daytime ones have all manner of problems with heating, just like air temps on board ships - hence the NMAT series. I'll forward another email for interest. Cheers Phil At 03:40 04/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil, Thanks, yes I'm in China now. As you might imagine, ,things have been very busy, but calming down a bit. Looks like Barton may be backing down... Martin Juckes has an invited talk in my session. I invited him, because he was working w/ Stott et al, and so I assume he was legit, and not associated with the contrarians. But if he's associated w/ the Dutch group, he may actually be a problem. Do you have additional information about him and what he has been up to? Thanks, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Good to hear it is out ! Hope the changeover is going OK and life is getting back to normal. If you're not gone to China yet - you'll meet someone called Martin Dukes (?). He's giving a talk at your session. He knows about maths etc but not much about paleo ! Might need some education, but is probably OK. Not met him, but Tim has. Doing some worked funded by the Dutch govt on the hockey stick. Cheers Phil At 04:05 03/08/2005, you wrote: Dear Colleagues, FYI, two papers attached: First (reprint), Rutherford et al, is now out in latest issue of Journal of Climate. This paper, aside from addressing other more scientifically-worthwhile issues, also happens to discredit most of the McIntyre and McKitrick claims. Second (preprint), Mann et al, is formally in press (i.e., has gone off to the AMS production staff) in Journal of Climate. This paper strongly challenges the conclusions of von Storch et al (2004), and raises some methodological issues w/ the approach used by Moberg et al (2005). Feel free to pass along to others. Thanks Mike -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1721. 2005-08-04 11:45:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: Henry Pollack date: Thu, 4 Aug 2005 11:45:11 -0400 (EDT) from: Jason E Smerdon subject: Re: SH figure for IPCC AR4 to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, Henry and I apologize for not being available the last few days. Henry has been out of town and I have been in the midst of moving to New York. Nevertheless, we had the chance to cross paths today and discuss the figure and caption. We hope it is not too late to add our two cents. We agree that the uncertainties on the borehole curves should be removed to make the display more consistent. We have also decided that it would be best to truncate the borehole curves at their median logging dates. For Australia and Africa those years are 1972 and 1986, respectively. If you wish to discuss the sampling densities, the total number of boreholes in Australia and Africa are 57 and 92, respectively. The SH has a total of 165 holes, compared to 695 in the NH. Let us know if you need anything else. I hope this has not arrived too late and good luck with everything. Best Regards, Jason 3747. 2005-08-04 13:59:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 4 13:59:44 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: changes wrt Webster et al to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, These changes are OK. I've made a pdf of the Webster et al doc. I'll send it with the few others early next week. I'll try and call later today (say 3pm UK, 8am MT). If you try, I'll be on the phone sometime between 4-5UK to Dave Griggs. Have to go at 5.30 tonight - 32cnd wedding anniv. Trying to go through Jim's emails, but keep getting interrupted. On the K and deg C issue, is there a halfway house. What about deg C in 3.1 and 3.9 and the QACCs and K elsewhere? I still reckon I can do this with a global edit. Need to keep any absolute temps in C though. I would be happy with all in K except for any absolute ones. I can see all sides of this point, so as long as we're consistent, we can leave the final decision to the reviewer's comments. The call should determine what else there is to do. What we can manage etc? What are Pielke and Christy up to? Cheers Phil At 00:36 04/08/2005, you wrote: Phil I have altered two paras: The last 2 sentence of this para and the last of the second. Of more direct relevance is the destructiveness of tropical storms, which relates to the total power dissipation within each storm (Emanuel, 2005), as the main dissipation is from surface friction and wind stress effects. Consequently it is proportional to the wind speed cubed. An index of the total power dissipation (Emanuel, 2005) shows substantial upward trends beginning in the mid 1970s, roughly doubling since then. It comes about because of longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensity, and is strongly correlated with tropical SST. These relationships have been reinforced by Webster et al. (2005) who found a large increase in numbers and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5 globally even as total number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in most basins. The largest increase is in the North Pacific, Indian and Southwest Pacific oceans. There is a clear El Niño connection in most regions, and strong negative correlations between regions in the Pacific and Atlantic, so that the total tropical storm activity is more nearly constant than ACE values in any one basin. With El Niño the incidence of hurricanes typically decreases in the Atlantic (Gray, 1984; Bove et al., 1998) and far western Pacific and Australian regions, while it increases in the central North and South Pacific and especially in the western North Pacific typhoon region (Gray, 1984; Lander, 1994; Chan and Liu, 2004; Kuleshov and de Hoedt, 2003), emphasizing the change in locations for tropical storms to preferentially form and track with ENSO. Formation and tracks of tropical storms favour either the Australian or South Pacific region depending on the phase of ENSO (Basher and Zheng, 1995; Kuleshov and de Hoedt, 2003), and these two regions have been combined. It is also possible to sum the ACE values over all regions and produce a global value. Although this has been done, it is not shown, as it is not considered sufficiently reliable. However, by far the highest ACE year is 1997, when a major El Niño event occurred and surface temperatures were the highest on record (Section 3.2), and this is followed by 1992, a moderate El Niño year. Such years tend to contain low values in the Atlantic, but much higher values in the Pacific, and they highlight the critical role of SSTs in the distribution and formation of hurricanes. 1994 is third and 2004 the fourth highest globally in ACE values. Emanuels (2005) power dissipation index also peaks in the late 1990s about the time of the 1997-98 El Niño for the combined Atlantic and West Pacific regions, although 2004 is almost as high. Webster et al. (2005) find that numbers of intense (cat. 4 and 5) hurricanes after 1990 are much greater than from 1970 to 1989. Sorry I am having major trouble with email and I can't do it any other way. Let me know if you think this is OK? Kevin Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 499. 2005-08-04 17:03:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 4 17:03:01 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: First Tmax dataset to: Adrian.Simmons@ecmwf.int Adrian, Great ! Thanks in advance. Phil At 16:48 04/08/2005, you wrote: Phil It's pretty straightforward - may be able to do it tomorrow afternoon. Adrian Phil Jones wrote: Adrian, Is it a trivial exercise for you to work a trend from land regions of DTR (annual) for 1979-2001? I'm just after a number. Does ERA-40 have DTR still going down? CRU mask not essential. Omit Antarctica. If it isn't trivial then don't bother. Cheers Phil At 17:04 03/08/2005, Adrian Simmons wrote: Phil, Russell As promised earlier, attached is the first of the datasets. It is the set of monhtly-averages of the daily maximum two-metre temperature, computed from the four 0-6h forecasts per day carried out from the ERA-40 analyses. Once you have run gunzip on the dataset, you should be left with a simple character file, suitable for a formatted read into a FORTRAN program. Looking at the file with any editor, you should see a sequence comprising a month identifier (format is I4,I2) showing YYYYMM and then the field itself. Each row (format 72f7.2) contains the temperature in Kelvin for grid boxes running east from the dateline, ie for longitudes 180W-175W, 175W-170W, 170W-165W,..., 175E-180E, as in the CRUTEM2V dataset downloadable from the CRU website. There are 36 rows running from north to south, ie for latitudes 90N-85N, 85N-80N,80N-75N,...,85S-90S. The months run from 1958 1 to 200112. If you can read the data without problem, I'll send the corresponding monthly-average minimum temperatures computed the same way, and the alternative monthly averages of the max/min temperatures computed each day from the 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC analyses. I'll send one field per email to avoid hitting possible mailbox limits. Best regards Adrian -- -------------------------------------------------- Adrian Simmons Head of Data Division European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK Phone: +44 118 949 9700 Fax: +44 118 986 9450 -------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- -------------------------------------------------- Adrian Simmons Head of Data Division European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK Phone: +44 118 949 9700 Fax: +44 118 986 9450 -------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4130. 2005-08-05 09:33:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Aug 5 09:33:54 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-clas] Grey Literature to: IPCC-WG1 Melinda, As I said yesterday, I have about 5-6 more pdfs to send towards the end of next week. Tell Scott to get in touch with me if there are any issues. As I might have expected, I was sent the published pdf for one of the 50+ pdfs I sent yesterday. When I send the others I'll tell you which it is, and if any more come out and then you or Scott can remove the odd one or two that have just come out. Cheers Phil At 21:53 04/08/2005, you wrote: Thank you Phil, I've forwarded your email to Scott Longmore who will be dealing with this portion of the compilation process. It's great to have this in early so that we too can test the system live and start the compilation of grey lit. Cheers, Melinda Phil Jones wrote: Melinda, I have just uploaded 55 pdf files to the Grey_Literature directory of Ch03. There are a few more to come before Aug 12. I just thought I'd try the system out. Of the 55, 50 are single files containing pdfs of papers in press or submitted. 2 papers have 2 files each (Santer and Sherwood), where one is the paper and the other figures or supplemental material. One file (Uppalaetal2005) is just the paper. I'll upload the figures (which are large) when I get them. My naming convention has been either 2005.pdf or and2005.pdf or etal2005.pdf All papers highlighted in yellow in our references will have a file or in 3 cases two files. All will be there except the CCSP report. This will be available on a web site from about Aug 22. If there are any issues, we have until the 12th to resolve them. Cheers Phil At 18:27 02/08/2005, you wrote: Dear CLAs, Following Martin's email of 1 August we have had some inquiries regarding how best to submit unpublished literature cited in your chapter to the TSU. Please submit all unpublished literature via the FTP site: URL: [1]ftp://wg1_gnrl:EQ0KW0WG@ftp.joss.ucar.edu FTP Server: [2]ftp.joss.ucar.edu Account/Password: wg1_gnrl/EQ0KW0WG Directory: pub/AR4_FOD/Chxx/Grey_Literature If you have any questions please do not hesitate in contacting us. Cheers, Melinda -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IPCC WGI TSU NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 325 Broadway DSRC R/AL8 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Phone: +1 303 497 7072 Fax: +1 303 497 5686/5628 Email: [3]ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-clas mailing list [4]Wg1-ar4-clas@joss.ucar.edu [5]http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-clas Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [6]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IPCC WGI TSU NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 325 Broadway DSRC R/AL8 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Phone: +1 303 497 7072 Fax: +1 303 497 5686/5628 Email: [7]ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5186. 2005-08-05 11:33:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Jonathan Overpeck" , "Eystein Jansen" , "Keith Briffa" date: Fri, 5 Aug 2005 11:33:10 +0400 from: "Olga Solomina" subject: ground surface temp ch 4 and 6 coordination to:  Dear Tingjun, Please have a look at the portion of our chapter concerning the ground surface temperature reconstructions - just to be sure that it is not repeated somehow in your chapter. The text is written by Keith Briffa ([1]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk), so you might contact him if it is necessary. All the best, olga What do large-scale temperature histories from ground surface temperature measurements tell us?[2][OS1] Ground surface temperature (GST) histories reconstructed from direct measurements of subsurface temperatures in boreholes have been presented by several geothermal research groups (Pollack and Huang, 2000; Harris and Chapman, 2001; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004); see Pollack and Huang (2000) for a review of the methodology. These have all been derived using the contents of a publicly-available database of borehole temperatures (Huang and Pollack, 1998) that presently includes 695 sites in the Northern Hemisphere. These geothermal reconstructions provide independent estimates of surface temperature changes over the past five centuries, with which to compare the other proxy reconstructions, but because the Earth acts as a low-pass filter on downward-propagating temperature signals, decadal and shorter fluctuations are generally unresolved in borehole reconstructions. The coupling between above and below ground temperatures is known to be complex and affected by factors such as ground vegetation and snow cover. Within the year, summer evapotranspiration can cool the ground relative to the surface air temperature; while in winter ground surface freezing can prevent the subsurface transfer of cold air temperature signals. On longer timescales changing vegetation and snow cover are likely to result in complex and spatially varying biases in the way SAT are reflected in local GST reconstructions (Gosnold et al., 1997; Pollack and Huang, 2000; Hinkel et al., 2001; Kane et al., 2001; Sokratov and Barry, 2002; Lin et al., 2003; Mann and Schmidt, 2003; Stieglitz et al., 2003; Bartlett et al., 2004; Chapman et al., 2004; Smerdon et al., 2004, 2005). The few studies to date, using global simulations by three-dimensional coupled models, provide contradictory evidence of the likely accuracy of deep soil temperatures as an indicator of SAT on longer timescales. Gonzalez-Rouco et al. (2003) using the ECHO-G model, concluded that deep soil temperatures were indistinguishable from continental annual SAT, but in another simulation using GISS model E, Mann and Schmidt (2003) found a significant discrepancy between cold-season GST and SAT trends on multi-decadal timescales, linked to changing snow cover trends. Neither of the model simulations used in these studies included time-varying vegetation cover. Figure 6.5.1-1a includes one reconstruction of average Northern Hemisphere GST, that by Pollack and Smerdon (2004). They state that this (like all geothermal reconstructions) shows a somewhat muted estimate of the real 20th-century trend, because about half of the borehole sites at the time of measurement (which varies by up to decades) had not yet been exposed to the significant warming of the last two decades of the 20th century. The one standard deviation uncertainties for their series (not shown here) are 0.1 (in 1500), 0.5 (1800) and 0.3 (1900) ºC. These are minimum errors (associated with various regional aggregations of local records) and do not take account of site specific noise in individual local site reconstructions (Pollack and Huang, 2000). This reconstruction indicates temperatures during the 16th and 17th centuries that coincide with the lower range of multiproxy reconstructions, values in the centre of the range during the 19th and early 20th century and an overall warming near to 1.0ºC over the last 500 years. Not all hemispheric analyses of these borehole data give the same magnitude of warming (Rutherford and Mann, 2004) but all (Huang et al., 2000; Harris and Chapman, 2001; Beltrami, 2002a) are more consistent with the multi-proxy reconstructions that show the greatest warming during this period, and in less agreement with those that show least. ______________________________ [3][ 1067. 2005-08-05 14:28:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Aug 5 14:28:11 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: SV: Help with a Figure to: Alexandersson Hans Hans, Thanks very much. The update is great and the colouring makes it easier to view. Also as the message is the same, that is good also. Will add a sentence on the now clearer recent decline. Cheers Phil At 13:59 05/08/2005, you wrote: Dear Phil, Recently I updated the pressure series and then now this weak I calculated an update of the figure also! I also made some checks and found some errors (esp Danish series) so that there should be some minor differences with previous figures. They will also change due to the fact that with a longer period you get new mean value and standard deviations used for the standardization. But the main message is still there: a decline up to around 1965, a rapid rise to about 1990 and then a clear decline. Looking at individual triangles I noticed that for the northernmost triangles the latest years had really high values! I managed to export an eps-file from my Matlab. Hopefully that is OK. In that figure blue rings and the blue line denotes the 95-percentile while red crosses and red line is the 99-percentile. Best greetings from another non-Euro member! Hasse Alexandersson ___________________________________________________________________________________ Från: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Skickat: den 28 juli 2005 10:23 Till: Alexandersson Hans; 'Kevin Trenberth' Kopia: albert.klein.tank@knmi.nl Ämne: Help with a Figure Hans, We are using a figure of yours in the First Order Draft of the Observations Chapter of AR4. The figure is 3.8.4 and has this caption Figure 3.8.4: Storm index for British Isles, North Sea, Norwegian Sea, 18811998. Dots are 95-percentiles and crosses 99-percentiles of standardized geostrophic winds averaged over 10 sets of triangles of stations. The smoothed curves (solid for 95-percentiles) are obtained by a Gaussian low pass filter (Alexandersson et al., 2000). The copy we have has probably been pulled from a pdf file. We are trying to get .eps files for all figures, so the quality will be better, both for reviewing and also eventually in the final version. Can you send us an eps version? Ideally we would like this as soon as possible, but by Aug 11. If you're away, it isn't a problem, and we'll add it later. Cheers Phil PS We understand why it can't be updated. We will respond accordingly if the reviewers ask about this. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1132. 2005-08-05 15:34:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Aug 5 15:34:58 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Correlation values (fwd) to: Anders Moberg , David Lister Anders, David's shown me the plot and forwarded the email. The plot is showing what we thought it would. Before you do others though I thought I should comment upon it. As the plotted points (which get joined up) are correlations between the average Tx series for winter and the 2/5/10 and 90/95/98 extreme series, I was wondering whether you should be joining up the 10 and 90 points. If we had a 50th percentile, then that should be correlated with the average to almost 1. Obviously it would be silly to plot 50, but maybe a break in the lines between 10 and 90 is preferable. Just a thought when I first saw it. It clearly shows that the cold tail for all three points has slightly higher correlation than the warm tail, for the average value (black) and most of the grey individual stations. There are a few places though where this isn't the case. It would be good to say if these were in one part of Europe, if they are not randomly located. This situation might differ for other variables and seasons. Cheers Phil At 15:20 05/08/2005, you wrote: ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2005 15:39:18 +0200 From: Anders Moberg To: David Lister Subject: Re: Correlation values Hi David, The attached figure shows the kind of plots I intend to make from your correlation tables. So, once I have the rest of the tables (I conclude that the file you sent were for winter?), I can finish the figures. This, however, will not happen during next week which is my final summer holiday week. In other words, it is no hurry with sending me any more files now. I will be back at work on Monday, August 15. I will not read emails before then, so if you have any new plots/tables for me you can send them all on Friday, August 12, if you like. Just in case, I repeat which kinds of correlation tables I need: 1. correlation between MEANTX and TX2P, TX5P, ..., TX98P (i.e. 6 correlations per station) 2. the same for TN 3. correlation between PRECTOT and PREC90P, ..., PREC98P (3 correlations per station) 4. correlation between SDII and PREC90P, ..., PREC98P (3 correlations per station) All these, of course, both for winter and summer. For the paper, I guess I will have to make a representative selection of the correlation results. Have a good time until we hear from each other again (I guess/fear there will be lots of of regional graphs to look at on August 15...) Cheers, Anders At 12:02 2005-08-05 +0100, you wrote: Okay Anders, More to follow after lunch ....... Cheers David On Fri, 5 Aug 2005, Anders Moberg wrote: > David, > > Thanks, the table looks good. I don't need to know about the significances. > I think these are anyway not very useful numbers, as all correlations > calculated here are clearly made between dependent variables. I rather > regard the correlations as objective measures of the degree of similarity > between the variables. You are right about the lats/lons. > > Cheers, > Anders > > > At 11:47 2005-08-05 +0100, you wrote: > >Anders, > > > >I have attached a file that gives the correlation values for MEANTX with > >the other TX extreme variables. Please have a look at it and let me know > >if this is okay ......... whilst most/all correlations are significant > >(5%), do you need to know which are and which are not? I guess that you > >do not need station lat./lons. > > > >Cheers > > > >David > > > > > >On Fri, 5 Aug 2005, Anders Moberg wrote: > > > > > David, > > > > > > When you do the multi-plot map for winter precip - could you omit the brown > > > circle in the legend as there are no <-80 trend in winter? (just to avoid > > > annoying someone who likes spotting silly details...) > > > > > > Anders > > > > > > > >*********************************************************************** **** > >David Lister > >Climatic Research Unit > >University of East Anglia > >NORWICH NR1 7TJ > >United Kingdom > > > >Telephone +44 (0)1603 593818 > >Fax +44 (0)1603 507784 > > > >CRU web site [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3837. 2005-08-05 16:12:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Aug 5 16:12:50 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: DTR trends to: "Russell Vose" , Adrian.Simmons@ecmwf.int Adrian, Russ and me have been having some email exchanges about which of your two datasets we need. We have maps of DTR from Russ (the one he emailed you an hour or so ago) and from Aiguo Dai and Lisa Alexander. I've been concentrating on Australia (as we have maps of trends from BoM for 1950-03 and 1979-03 (attached). Maybe Australia isn't the best place to look but we're confident BoM is likely to be right. Of the time series you sent, Australia shows the largest difference between the 0-6h forecast and the 6 hrly analyses, particularly from about 1990. This divergence since 1990 also occurs in other regions although not over North America nor much over Europe, which suggests it is something to do with the data. This divergence isn't an issue in the mean temp from the 2004 paper, so any thoughts. Russ thinks the 6 hrly analyses look better compared to his plot, but I reckon that the 0-6hr forecasts are better in some regions. So, is it possible to send both datasets. Russ can cope with the format. Cheers Phil At 14:31 05/08/2005, Russell Vose wrote: Adrian: Many thanks for these figures. At first glance it appears that my analysis for 1979-2004 and yours for 1979-2001 (6-hrly analysis) exhibit some general agreement. It's not a perfect match, but both suggest that many areas (western U.S., Europe, western Asia, Australia) experienced an increase in DTR since 1979. Do you have a global (land surface) trend for 1979-2001 for the 6-hrly analysis? Adrian Simmons wrote: Phil Attached are a set of results based on DTR computed both from the max/min temperatures in the four daily 0-6h forecasts and from the max/min of the analysed temperatures for 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC. No mask based on CRUTEM2V has been applied, but I've masked out sea points, based on selecting only 5deg boxes that are more than 50% land. The first two attachments show maps of the least-square linear trends in DTR computed for 1958-2001 and 1979-2001. The third attachment shows time series of some area averages. These are plotted as deviations from the 44-year mean, and smoothed by a 12-month running average. Clearly there are some things here that must be treated with much suspicion - the drop from the 60s to the mid-70s in the tropics (and southern hemisphere?) for example is suggestive of a shift in the assimilation associated with change in data coverage. perhaps, though, there is something useful in the information for Europe (at least from 1967 onwards after the SYNOP coverage improves) and North America. Best regards Adrian Phil Jones wrote: Adrian, Is it a trivial exercise for you to work a trend from land regions of DTR (annual) for 1979-2001? I'm just after a number. Does ERA-40 have DTR still going down? CRU mask not essential. Omit Antarctica. If it isn't trivial then don't bother. Cheers Phil At 17:04 03/08/2005, Adrian Simmons wrote: Phil, Russell As promised earlier, attached is the first of the datasets. It is the set of monhtly-averages of the daily maximum two-metre temperature, computed from the four 0-6h forecasts per day carried out from the ERA-40 analyses. Once you have run gunzip on the dataset, you should be left with a simple character file, suitable for a formatted read into a FORTRAN program. Looking at the file with any editor, you should see a sequence comprising a month identifier (format is I4,I2) showing YYYYMM and then the field itself. Each row (format 72f7.2) contains the temperature in Kelvin for grid boxes running east from the dateline, ie for longitudes 180W-175W, 175W-170W, 170W-165W,..., 175E-180E, as in the CRUTEM2V dataset downloadable from the CRU website. There are 36 rows running from north to south, ie for latitudes 90N-85N, 85N-80N,80N-75N,...,85S-90S. The months run from 1958 1 to 200112. If you can read the data without problem, I'll send the corresponding monthly-average minimum temperatures computed the same way, and the alternative monthly averages of the max/min temperatures computed each day from the 00, 06, 12 and 18UTC analyses. I'll send one field per email to avoid hitting possible mailbox limits. Best regards Adrian -- -------------------------------------------------- Adrian Simmons Head of Data Division European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK Phone: +44 118 949 9700 Fax: +44 118 986 9450 -------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4447. 2005-08-08 12:38:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 8 Aug 2005 12:38:19 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: URGENT - 6.5 exec summary bullets to: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Eystein Jansen Hi Keith and Tim - We're working on the exec summary bullets, and would like to see if we can be more explicit is what we say about the last 2000 years. Please open the attached WORD file and see if you can help as indicated... I marked this URGENT because you might want to think about this before finishing the rest of your section. We'll need to double check all the other section 6.5 bullets, but that can wait until you are done w/ the section. I'll send them in the next email so you can work on them as soon as possible. thanks! Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\Recentwarmingdraftbullets.doc" 2739. 2005-08-08 13:46:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Aug 8 13:46:37 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Section 3.4 to: trenbert@ucar.edu Kevin, Apart from DTR, the other main issue is whether to go with the new naming convention for atmospheric layers that CCSP has used in their latest diagrams. Still thinking about authorship. I can see your point. I reckon that you've done about 60% and me 40% so far, so you're well ahead. My normal rules would be that whoever writes most get lead authorship, but I want to see if I can do more with the SOD and later. If I don't do more we will likely (in the IPCC definition) switch when the SOD is submitted next year. It will depend on the type and number of comments we get and who has to do most to revise things. I am still planning to come to NCAR in February next year if it will be a useful use of time. I'd like to talk to a few other people, even get the issue raised at one of the CLAM meetings in NZ. It is probably up to us though. I've had a look at the hotels for the ChCh meeting. Copthorne (in Durham St) is NZ 129.38 excluding breakfast Crowne Plaza is 185.63 excluding breakfast (standard room) or 253.13 including breakfast (club class room) I like breakfast ! With one pound being 2.58NZD at the moment even the higher rate is only about 15% more than we paid in Beijing. I think I might indulge myself. UK taxes well spent! Both have hi-speed internet access at extra cost. Not clear if internet access is free with the higher room cost (probably isn't as they don't say). Unless you want to go for the Copthorne, let's go for the Crowne Plaza. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3026. 2005-08-08 17:06:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Aug 8 17:06:35 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: DTR paper to: "Russell Vose" At least it's -ve ! It does look better. Home now ! Phil At 16:51 08/08/2005, you wrote: The 1979-2004 DTR trend is a statistically insignificant -0.001 C/dec. The new plot probably looks better because South America is fixed. Also, for some reason the red stands out less when the maps are smaller! If Byron changed the color bar it's probably because Kevin asked him to. Byron has a zillion directories with IPCC stuff -- he basically saves every version of everything. So if someone changes there mind 20 times over the course of 6 months, then settles on something they tried a while earlier, he can say, "You were right back on October 1st!" Phil Jones wrote: Russ, New plot for 1979-2004 looks a little different from the one we already have. It also looks as though there is slightly more blue. Even if it's not significant a trend number with a minus sign will be good enough for Kevin. Well, I hope so ! More of the extreme colours have gone this time, but Byron's changed the colour bar ! Cheers Phil At 15:19 08/08/2005, you wrote: Yes, there will be tables documenting trends globally and for each hemisphere (annual and by season). Phil Jones wrote: Russ, Presumably the paper will have trends averaged for NH, SH and Globe for the two periods 1979-2004 and 1950/1-2004. SH isn't essential as long as Globe and NH are there. Looking forward to the plots. Phil At 15:14 08/08/2005, you wrote: Phil: The paper will contain time series and maps for both periods. I'll forward the maps in my next message. I have someone working on the time series plots right now. Will send them later today. Phil Jones wrote: Russ, Thanks for the update. As we have the 1979-2004 trend plot, can we also get the time series one for max/min/dtr for 1950-2004 soonish - as soon as the draft. It will likely be in the draft, probably. Cheers Phil At 15:02 08/08/2005, you wrote: Phil: Just a quick update -- the writing progresses well, but I won't have a draft for you today. Tomorrow with a little good fortune! -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2462. 2005-08-08 18:34:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Aug 8 18:34:07 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: RE: solar MM to: Tim Osborn Date: Mon, 8 Aug 2005 11:24:37 -0600 To: David Rind From: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: RE: solar MM Cc: Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at email.arizona.edu X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO David - sounds promising. So, the bottom line is that a little disagreement is ok - that's a reflection of the real uncertainty? But, the discrepancy is not all that big in the end? No need to take this to a higher level? Keith Briffa is back on line and finishing off Section 6.5, so you might want to send him an email w/ suggestions that help keep chap 6 compatible w/ 2 and 9 - for example, with respect to solar, we acknowledge the forcing could be less than 0.5 W/m**2, and the uncertaintly wrt to trop aerosols and land albedo is significant - we could easily be closer to chap 9's estimate. Would you say the key is that our analysis acknowledge the uncertainty so as to overlap well with the other chapters? Keith - please make sure you send your new 6.5 to David too - while you were out, he was working hard w/ chap 2 and 9 to make sure we (the IPCC) avoid saying things that confuse. The comparison of radiative forcings from 3 different angles is what assessment is all about, and it's great David has had the patience to help figure it all out. Thx, Peck Hi Gabi, The key to your proposed solution is the updated numbers from Chapter 2. If indeed the radiative forcing change to 1750 is -1.53, then presumably you have made this consistent with the earlier part of Chapter 9. The numbers previously looked like this (I haven't seen the latest version of 6.5, but I've included the previous estimates we had in the ZOD): W/m**2 Chapter 6 Chapter 9 MM 1750 Greenhouse gases: -2.4 -2.6 TROP aerosols: 0.5 0.2 Solar -0.5 -0.1 Volcanic: ? ? Land albedo: +0.4 0.03 Trop O3: -0.35 -0.4 Strat O3: +0.15 0.10 1'st indirect aerosol forcing 1.2 STRAT H2O -0.13 AVIATION -0.02 TOTAL -2.2 -1.7 There is essentially no change in greenhouse gas forcing from 1750 to 1700 (see for example Crowley et al., GRL, 2003), so the difference in the estimated numbers is probably due to inclusion of more things or different choices in Chapter 2. A similar statement holds for trop aerosols. One can also use these two to presume that the same also holds true for land albedo. [The value listed for that in Chapter 9 is quite small compared to some other studies; e.g., Govindasamy et al., GRL, 28, 291-294,2001.] So, to the extent these numbers are still discussed in Chapter 6, they should be made consistent with those in chapters 2 and 9. With respect to your proposed paragraph below: I would drop the comments about trace gas differences but saying land albedo changes may have been greater, along with the additional solar change, could give us the -1.8 W/m**2 forcing. Concerning the temperature response: the Moberg et al paper itself claims 1°C difference between 1500 and 2000, but the figure seems to show a larger number, perhaps 1.3°C (again, just eye-balling it). However, the coldest time period is not in the MM but before it. I think therefore a better estimate from that paper for the MM would be 1°C. So, with respect to the sensitivity: if 0.85 W/m**2 is unresolved, then we have a total forcing of ~0.95 W/m**2, and a climate response varying between 0.45°C and 1°C - or a climate sensitivity for 2xCO2 of 1.9°C to 4.2°C, or pretty similar to standard IPCC estimates. I think this will work! David At 1:02 PM -0400 8/6/05, hegerl@duke.edu wrote: On Sat, 6 Aug 2005 hegerl@duke.edu wrote: p.s. I modified the text for MM forcing according to below theory (please yell if its off!) which would say (and has questions for you): During the cool period of the Late Maunder Minimum (approximately 1675-1715), sunspots were generally missing, and solar irradince is believed to have been smaller. This period will be used in Section 9.6 to discuss climate sensitivity; therefore we discuss its radiative forcing estimates . The estimated difference between present day solar irradiance and the late 17th century Maunder Minimum is presently -1.1 W/m2 (best estimate, range -0.5 to -2 W/m2 , Chapter 2), but with large uncertainties. This leads to a best estimate radiative forcing of -0.2 W/m2 (-0.1 to -0.35 W/m2 67% confidence interval; note that solar forcing from 1750 to the present is estimated having increased by 0.1 W/m2 , chapter 2). Many radiative forcing changes, particularly those associated with industrialization, are very similar from the present to the Maunder Minimum as they are from the present to preindustrial (total forcing estimated of -1.53 W/m2, see 9.2.1.2). CO2 may have been slightly lower (by???), and land cover changes may also have been glightly greater between the Maunder Minimum and 1750. This yields an approximate net radiative forcing of-1.8 W m-2 (between the late Maunder Minimum and the present, with large uncertainties. > > > Hi David et al, > > I spent some more time pondering the MM forcing. > I think the best place to start is the updated chapter 2 forcing > from preindustrial, which is (according to what Joyce pulled out of > ch 2, so hope its correct): > > -1.53 from present to the 1750 period (all included that they deem > relevant, so no volcanoes because episodic, but all else in there > including contrails and other weird small stuff, I THINK it also > includes land cover changes) > > We would have to add -0.1 for the more reduced solar (given +0.1 1750 to > now from ch2, and 0.2 from MM on), and maybe some number for the > somewhat lower CO2 between 1700 and 1750 (what would that be)? and > maybe another number for additional changes in land cover? > > Overall, the number you had before of -1.8 (after adjusting solar down > to recent wisdom) seems now pretty good to me. > Should we keep it, or do you ahve another suggestion? > I am glad we didn't loose the forcing from MM to present :))) > > greetings, let me know what would be good for us to write (and then I'll > do the arithmetic for the best guess sensitivity once you guys also > check my numbers for high/low estimates of annual temp changes at that > period, right now its -0.45 Mann to -1.5 Moberg-readoffplotinahurry by me) > > Thanks in advance, I think we are very close to resolve this! > > Gabi > > On Fri, 5 Aug 2005, David Rind wrote: > > > As this continuing exchange has clarified, what's in Chapter 6 is > > inconsistent with what is in Chapter 2 (and Chapter 9 is caught in > > the middle!). Worse yet, we've managed to make global warming go > > away! (Maybe it really is that easy...:) > > > > David > > > > At 9:49 AM -0600 8/5/05, Bette Otto-Bliesner wrote: > > >Gabi, > > > > > >In Chap 6, we use 2.2 with a range of 1.9 to 2.6 W/m2. The > > >uncertainty range includes both uncertainties in the ice core > > >measurements and uncertainties in the radiative transfer > > >calculations. > > > > > >Bette > > > > > >_ > > > > > > >At 2:27 PM -0400 8/4/05, Gabi Hegerl wrote: > > > > > >David, so with the Judith correction only (solar down by 0.4), we > > >get a total forcing of > > >0.95 to MM, (after subtracting the 0.85 not realized yet according to Jim) > > > > > >Then, if the indirect effect and black carbon is added, wouldn't > > >this reduce the forcing to nearly nothing? > > >(or what am I doing wrong, 2.2 changes to 1.8 with new solar, black > > >carbon and ind aerosol takes away > > >0.9. yielding 0.9 W/m**2, then Jim says 0.85 of that is unrealized???) > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- > Gabriele Hegerl > Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment > Duke University, Durham NC 27708 > phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 > email: hegerl@duke.edu [1]http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html > --------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- Gabriele Hegerl Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University, Durham NC 27708 phone 919-684-6167, fax 919-684-5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu [2]http://www.eos.duke.edu/Faculty/hegerl.html --------------------------------------------------------------------- -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [3]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [4]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 2055. 2005-08-09 08:46:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Aug 9 08:46:01 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: some upper ocean trends to: D.E.Harrison@noaa.gov Ed, A few thoughts. 1. For surface T (and SST separately) we have the concept of the effective # of spatial degrees of freedom (as especially for SST) T changes slowly. I'll attach our latest surface T paper (just submitted) and an earlier one. This concept might be useful, wrt errors in the various types of obs. I can see why most people try to take the base period out. We've tried to allow for the error of estimation of this as well. It is likely much easier for the surface as there are many more obs. 2. Is there a period for the 0.06 and 0.037 deg C increase? Presumbly it is since about 1950? 3. The Soon et al (2004) paper referred to on p3 is missing from the refs. Do you have a pdf of this? If it is Willie Soon, I'd be very doubtful about it being much use. He tends to be economical with the truth to suit his own ends! 4. Paper should be a useful addition to Ch 5 on oceans. Cheers Phil At 15:52 08/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I'm sure that it has been extremely hectic for you. Hope you'll get a bit of rest next week. I've not sent the ms around, but shall take your suggestion to send to Nate and Jurgen. thanks. All best wishes. Ed Phil Jones wrote: Ed, I'll get to this the week after next. The next IPCC draft has to be in this Friday, then I have a week off ! Have you sent this draft to the convening lead authors of the ocean chapter? They are from memory Nathan Bindoff and Jurgen Willebrand. Syd is an LA on the chapter. I'm on Atmospheric Obs. with Kevin Trenberth. There are separate chapters this time for oceans, cryopshere and paleo. Cheers Phil At 22:45 05/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil My student and I have gotten together a ms on the upper ocean temperature trend project we've been at. We're at a bit of a loss to understand how Levitus and others have gotten the results they have...it appears that they've had to resort to a great deal of extrapolation. I've attached a preprint here, in case it might be of interest to you. Comments are always welcome. I hope your summer is going well. All best wishes, Ed Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1047. 2005-08-09 10:50:52 ______________________________________________________ cc: Fortunat Joos , drind@giss.nasa.gov, rahmstorf@pik-potsdam.de, olgasolomina@yandex.ru, hpollack@umich.edu, ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar, jsmerdon@umich.edu, drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu, tcrowley@duke.edu, oyvind.paasche@bjerknes.uib.no date: Tue, 9 Aug 2005 10:50:52 -0600 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: Section on last 2000-years to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith - This has been a really tough couple weeks for you, and we all thank you for finding the focus to help w/ the IPCC. I'm sure we'll be ok for FOD. Eystein and I will edit what you just sent, and send relevant pieces to David, who can check for cross-chapter consistency. Fortunat is not available this week. And... we don't have any time left for anything else. Of course, there is plenty of time for post-FOD improvements as you describe. Regarding my push to say more about the future, I'll try to keep it more subdued. You are right. Of course, where I think paleo directly informs the future, I'll keep pushing. Hopefully, you and Tim will be around for the next 24 hours for questions/dialog. We are very close. thanks again, Peck >Peck and Eystein >in case you tried (!), my phone has been broken for the last few >days (yes - honestly). >I am sorry I had to rush off - and stay longer than I had >anticipated . The funeral was delayed >while a post-mortem examination had to be held to establish the >precise cause of death. Ironic >that dad had struggled on having had at least 3 heart attacks, 2 >strokes, chronic diabetes and partial liver and kidney failure for >some years (besides being virtually immobile and completely blind >for 18 months). All in all , though it was a release, the actual >demise was sudden and unexpected and I managed to arrive too late to >be with him at the end. >Given the time constraint , this "final" revision is not as >considered as it might have been , but we have tried to take into >account all comments available , and have given considerable >attention to the IPCC terminology and emphasis on the bullet points >. At this stage , however, there are some clear areas where future >work will be required to keep abreast of recent developments and , >perhaps, to re-balance the emphasis and structure. I apologise for >not having responded directly to Fortunat, Stefan, Ricardo.Olga, >David and Tom, but please be aware that I have considered all of >their comments and done what I could to address them .Thanks >Fortunat and Ricardo (and Ed - who should be added to the list of >CAs) for the text and Figures and Henry and Jason for the help and >data . David's suggestions about re-ordering the paragraphs was >particularly difficult to resolve in my own mind , because I do see >the logic , but equally , did not want to interfere with the time >line approach to describing post- TAR work that underlies the >current structure. as you can see I decided to leave the order as it >was. It would be great if David and Fortunat could check cross >Chapter referencing (eg in relation to forcings and detection >chapters). We can revisit this , and the issue of McIntyre and >McKitrick (centering of PCs in Mann et al reconstruction - which is >clearly unfounded) until such time as the numerous responses are >published. >The new SH section is in , and the MWP box slightly amended to take >account of the new Figure. >Peck, I have considered your text on the regional section - and you >will see that I have edited out some relating to future (and >association between drought and SSTs) . I feel strongly that you are >venturing into "observational" territory and speculation beyond what >we should say. I have also amended the bullet points to reflect >this. YOU ARE THE ULTIMATE ARBITERS and it is up to you if you wish >to re-insert , but I will give you a continuing argument later about >our overstepping the "paleo" boundary. Note also that the bullet on >European summer 2004 has bee altered to reflect what was a last >minute , one-sentence , insertion in the first paragraph regarding >Jurg Lutterbacher's Science paper - as there was no mention of it >otherwise. We had to remove the reference to "700 years in France" >as I am not sure what this is , and it is not in the text anyway. >The use of "likely" , "very likely" and my additional fudge word >"unusual" are all carefully chosen where used. >Tim has been a rock in the last minute rush here - not only doing >the Figures , but also helping with the text. I am really grateful >to him. He has sent the text , with some comments, and highlighted >references, that need attention. If Oyvind can identify references >and handle these problems with Endnote , we are also really grateful. >The final references , if missing , are probably in the current >text, the previous Endnote library , or in sections of text sent by >Ricardo, Fortunat, Peck and Eystein. I trust when you guys have >stiched the new text back in and the Figures etc. we will perhaps >get a last chance to correct and check references etc. Thanks >Keith > > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 1411. 2005-08-09 11:38:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Aug 9 11:38:01 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: Re: Fwd: Description of the HadAM3P-model of the Hadley to: Clare Goodess Clare, The IPCC deadline was May 31. This was a soft deadline, The hard one is Aug 12. Richard is an LA, but he's bending the rules. Phil At 11:12 09/08/2005, you wrote: X-IronPort-AV: i="3.96,91,1122854400"; d="scan'208"; a="704742:sNHT20764468" Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 11:06:41 +0100 From: "Buonomo, Erasmo" Subject: Re: Fwd: Description of the HadAM3P-model of the Hadley Centre To: Clare Goodess Cc: hans.caspary@hft-stuttgart.de, Hans.Caspary@t-online.de X-Mailer: Ximian Evolution 1.4.5 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 09 Aug 2005 10:06:41.0167 (UTC) FILETIME=[09CCC9F0:01C59CCA] X-UEA-Spam-Score: 1.1 X-UEA-Spam-Level: + X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Hi Clare and Hans, what we have been doing recently in our publications (see Dave Rowell's recent papers) is to cite the PRECIS document (the third in your list) for HadRM3P and the following paper for HadAM3P Jones, R.G. Murphy, J.M., Hassell, D.C. and Woodage, M.J., 2005: A high resolution atmospheric GCM for the generation of regional climate scenarios. J. Geophys. Res. to be submitted. i.e. we are already citing the paper on HadAM3P you have heard about. There should be already a draft or something approaching a draft, but Richard has got the IPCC deadline, probably it will be submitted this September. Regards, Erasmo On Tue, 2005-08-09 at 09:35, Clare Goodess wrote: > Hi Erasmo > > Finding suitable references for HadAM3P has always been a problem. > Last time I asked Richard he suggested the PRECIS document. These are > the references we currently have on our internal web site with the > data: > > Pope, D. V, M. Gallani, R. Rowntree and A. Stratton, 2000: The impact > of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: > HadAM3. Climate Dyn., 16, 123-146. > > Johns, T.C., J.M. Gregory, W.J. Ingram, C.E. Johnson, A. Jones, J.A. > Lowe, J.F.B. Mitchell, D.L. Roberts, D.M.H. Sexton, D.S. Stevenson, > S.F.B. Tett and M.J. Woodage, 2003: Anthropogenic climate change for > 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emission > scenarios. Climate Dyn., 20, 583-612. > > Jones, R.G., Noguer, M., Hassell, D.C., Hudson, D., Wilson, S.S., > Jenkins, G.J. and Mitchell, J.F.B. (2004) Generating high resolution > climate change scenarios using PRECIS, Met Office Hadley Centre, > Exeter, UK, 40pp > > > Are you able to suggest anything else. I know a paper is being > written/planned on HadAM3P - do you know how this is progressing? > > Best wishes, Clare > > > Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 09:51:56 +0200 > > From: "Hans J. Caspary" > > Reply-To: hans.caspary@hft-stuttgart.de > > User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 1.0.2 (Windows/20050317) > > X-Accept-Language: de-DE, de, en-us, en > > To: Clare Goodess > > Subject: Description of the HadAM3P-model of the Hadley Centre > > X-ID: T-GjhiZDgehTp0ysBNzU+vZcr9wXO07uc3l4trJ8YOu6VN5H2uL7wx > > X-TOI-MSGID: 3e2859d2-eea2-4fee-bf87-a9ab4fdf5ba5 > > X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 > > X-UEA-Spam-Level: / > > X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO > > > > Dear Clare, > > > > could you please give me a reference where I can find a short > > description of the HadAM3P model and its differences to HadCM3. For > > HadCM3 I found this on the web-site of the Hadley Centre on the > > following address: > > > > [1]http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/models/HadCM3.html > > > > I also tried to find the description in one of our deliverables but > > could not find it. Please give me a short reply. Thank's. > > > > Best wishes > > > > Hans > > > > -- > > Prof. Dr.-Ing. Hans J. Caspary > > Department of Civil Engineering > > Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences > > P.O. Box 10 14 52 > > D-70013 Stuttgart > > Germany > > Phone + Fax: +49-721-892037 > > > Dr Clare Goodess > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences > University of East Anglia > Norwich > NR4 7TJ > UK > > Tel: +44 -1603 592875 > Fax: +44 -1603 507784 > Web: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ > [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm -- ------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Erasmo Buonomo Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1392 886126 Fax: +44 (0)113 336 1072 Email:Erasmo.Buonomo@metoffice.gov.uk [4]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk ------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: +44 -1603 592875 Fax: +44 -1603 507784 Web: [5]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 821. 2005-08-09 13:59:34 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Aug 9 13:59:34 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: Chapter CLAs ---- OK with the new terminology to: Tom Wigley Tom, We would definitely like the old notation. The Table certainly helps as it explains it clearly. It might be worth getting Kevin to email Tom K. I think the latter is now back from Alaska. Cheers Phil At 13:28 09/08/2005, you wrote: Phil, (Confidential) I am pushing for a return to 'old' notation (T2, T4, etc.) in the CCSP report. The Table I sent was dreamed up by me, but in collab with Ben. Some people do not like my suggestion -- see John's comments below. Consistency with IPCC seems an important issue, so Tom Karl may contact you. Seems that both you and Kevin support my 'old' notation. I will send you my original email to CCSP authors on this issue to fill you in. John has not addressed the points I made. In the end it is a personal issue -- all notation schemes have flaws. Tom. ======================== -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: Chapter CLAs ---- OK with the new terminology proposed by Tom W.? Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 06:21:16 -0600 From: Tom Wigley [1] Organization: NCAR/CGD To: [2]John.Lanzante@noaa.gov CC: _NESDIS NCDC CCSP Temp Trends Lead Authors [3] References: [4]<200508090413.j794D5Q32711@jrl.gfdl.noaa.gov> I'd like to point out that IPCC is not going to adopt the (for want of a better handle) Folland notation. If we stick to this, we will be an outlier. Perhaps some liaison with Phil Jones and Kevin Trenberth might be useful. I suggest that this be left up to Tom Karl. Tom. =============== John Lanzante wrote: All, Every time one of these things comes up I have to pinch myself to see if I'm dreaming. It escapes me why, after having charted our course, through countless emails and 2-day marathon sessions in Chicago, there arises a sudden and repeated urge to do an about face, knowing full well that at some point down the road we may very well end up back where we started. Perhaps this is some kind of Monte Carlo experiment where we are supposed to try every possible combination? For perspective, I'd like to remind you that the latest proposed terminology for the layers is nearly the same as the terminology that we adopted for the very first draft of this report. Subsequently, we rejected it because it was too cryptic. Next we adopted terms that were almost abbreviations of plain English, such as "Low-Trop", etc. At our last Chicago meeting the point was raised that it would still not be clear to the non-specialist how the various layers relate to one another. For example, where does 850-300 fit in compared to Low-Trop? Additionally, there was a discomfort with using "Fu" to describe layers since none of the other layers are named after individuals and since such a designation yields no information as to where that layer falls in the scheme of things. Furthermore, we needed some way to clearly distinguish between "Fu" in the tropics vs. globally. Chris Folland then suggested the most recent nomenclature: we designate each layer by a range of pressures to which it corresponds (or corresponds approximately). There are several clear advantages to this system. First, it eliminates the hodge-podge that, for historical reasons, is used in the literature. There is now a uniformity. Second, it eliminates the use of a proper name (Fu). Third, the layer names themselves make it readily apparent the extent to which given layers overlap -- they eliminate the need for a reader to constantly refer back to the diagram in Chapter 2. When Chris proposed this scheme it seemed as if a hush fell over the room as people thought to themselves "why didn't I think of that". When we concluded the discussion, I don't recall anyone objecting. So now I am very puzzled why, after all of this time, with so little time left, and much work yet to be done has this issue surfaced again????? Surely we have more productive things to do than changing all of the text, all of the figures, and all of the tables? Maybe it would be a useful exercise to recall why it is we are writing this report and put ourselves in the shoes of the readers. We were asked by policymakers to write a report for them. Therefore we need to imagine ourselves as the uninitiated reader (clean slate). When someone is presented with terminology such as T2, TLT, T(850-300), T4, TFu, etc., their first thoughts will undoubtedly be "You must be kidding -- how did these #@$% people come up with this nonsensical alphabet soup of numbers and letters, without any rhyme or reason. Why didn't they just refer to them as something like layer1, layer2, layer3 .... so it would be easy to remember and conceptualize?" While terms such as T2, TLT, TFu may be familiar to us (the LAs) they are not going to be familiar to many at all. We (the LAs) are part of a very small clique. Even the majority of people in the broader climate field are not going to understand these terms. If one conducted a survey by visiting every office in GFDL or NCAR or the Hadley Centre and asked what these terms mean, how many people would have a clue? In the NRC review I could find no criticism of our terminology "Low-Trop", etc., but I did see repeated reminders that we need to make this report accessible to a wide audience. Going back to the secret code does not do that. The beauty of the terminology that Chris Folland suggested is that the reader does not need to keep referring back to any diagrams -- does not need to memorize any terminology -- all the reader needs to understand is that pressure decreases upwards. Perhaps a few sentences could be added to Chapter 2, being very explicit in explaining this -- leading the reader through a few examples. Tom Karl wrote: CLA's please provide me with a specific yes or no regarding your acceptance of the proposed notation table attached. Also let me know if you will change your text and figures to accommodate. My answer is a resounding "NO" -- I do not intend to change. In my opinion, making these changes would be a highly unproductive exercise and be a decided step backwards in clarity and readability. There is never going to be an ideal terminology. I see no reason to make things more difficult for the reader. You've probably seen the recent stories about incoming NAS president, Ralph Cicerone. In a Nature article they reported that the 2001 report on Climate Change Science that he chaired "was widely praised as straightforward and easy to understand" and "was also phenomenally fast", having been produced in about a month. Back when Michael Jordon ruled the basketball world, there was the popular phrase "Be like Mike". I'd like to start a similar movement by suggesting that we should "Be like Ralph". _____John Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3182. 2005-08-09 14:05:31 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 14:05:31 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Section 6.5 FOD bullets to: Jonathan Overpeck ,Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , Øyvind Paasche Dear all, here are the revised bullet points relating to section 6.5. We've gone through them in some detail with attention to precise wording changes and also given separate conclusions for the last 500, 1000 and 2000 year periods as suggested by Peck - including a "very likely" statement for the last 500 years. We've also re-ordered them a little to given a more obvious structure. Cheers Keith and Tim Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\09aug05_Ch06_FOD_BULLETS_text.doc" Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 627. 2005-08-09 14:14:43 ______________________________________________________ cc: Henry Pollack ,Keith Briffa , Eystein Jansen , Jonathan Overpeck date: Tue, 09 Aug 2005 14:14:43 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: SH figure for IPCC AR4 to: Jason E Smerdon Thanks for the comments Jason/Henry. Just wanted to let you know that I've dropped the uncertainty ranges to be consistent with the other records and also cut the borehole series at the median sampling dates. Cheers Tim At 16:45 04/08/2005, Jason E Smerdon wrote: >Hi Tim, > >Henry and I apologize for not being available the last few days. Henry >has been out of town and I have been in the midst of moving to New York. >Nevertheless, we had the chance to cross paths today and discuss the >figure and caption. We hope it is not too late to add our two cents. > >We agree that the uncertainties on the borehole curves should be removed >to make the display more consistent. We have also decided that it would >be best to truncate the borehole curves at their median logging dates. For >Australia and Africa those years are 1972 and 1986, respectively. If you >wish to discuss the sampling densities, the total number of boreholes in >Australia and Africa are 57 and 92, respectively. The SH has a total of >165 holes, compared to 695 in the NH. > >Let us know if you need anything else. I hope this has not arrived too >late and good luck with everything. > >Best Regards, >Jason Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 1697. 2005-08-09 16:43:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Aug 9 16:43:39 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: DTR etc to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Russ is supposed to be sending the diagrams by the close of his day today. The plot he sent me yesterday for 79-04 for DTR looks better over southern South America. Decisions about infilling and periods of record seem to be important there. Australia looks similar with what Lisa sent (the BoM figure). I've been concentrating on these two regions. Spain is a mix of blue and red. Attaching the plot, dtr at the bottom. Max and then min presumably are the other two. Russ knows exactly what we want, so wait for an email from him in about 4-5 hours time. We should be getting this bottom plot plus max/min/dtr time series from 1950. Paper pdf will likely come later on Wednesday or early Thursday. Cheers Phil At 15:43 09/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I am wondering how to discuss this: Aiguo has some different values and some for US are different than theirs yet fit with other things. Matilde was adamant about S America: I wonder what the reference is? What about Spain? If there are references, then we can opening discuss some differences (and hopefully they can be resolved by next draft). It won't do to have one product that is at odds with some others: that will invite comments. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Kevin, Russ has only sent me 2-3 emails on this. We've been discussing some of the decisions made on station inclusion. He sent me some revised maps yesterday - of max, min and dtr for the two periods. I reminded him of what we want - dtr map for 79-04 and the time series of max/min/dtr for 50-04. Russ said he hoped to get these plus a pdf by the end of today. His latest DTR trend for 79-04 is -0.001 K/dec. Paper will have trends for the other period and for NH and SH separately. Cheers Phil At 21:35 08/08/2005, you wrote: Kevin: Phil and I have been in close communication on this. I haven't been CCing everyone because I didn't want to fill up everyone's in-box with many small messages (I sent 5 just this morning). Kevin Trenberth wrote: Dear Russ and David It is the last few days for our IPCC chapter and we need to resolve the DTR stuff. 1) There was supposed to be an updated Fig 3.2.2 on global time series of max min and DTR. The current one shows a downward drift in DTR although smaller after 1979. 2) What about 3.2.11: this is th map of DTR trends 1979to 2004? 3) What about Vose et al 2005? Vose, R.S., D.R. Easterling, and B. Gleason, 2005a: Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004. Geophys. Res. Lett. (submitted). I still have not seen this and nor has Phil. We need this immediately, if not before. These are now extremely urgent. If the paper is not submitted then we can't refer to it. We have to submit a pdf to TSU by end of the week. And the LAs need to evaluate it. So we can not tolerate any delay at all. Regards Kevin -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [1]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [2]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 -- Russell S. Vose, Chief Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, North Carolina 28801 Phone: (828) 271-4311 Fax: (828) 271-4328 E-mail: [3]Russell.Vose@noaa.gov Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [5]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [6]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16. 2005-08-09 17:21:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Aug 9 17:21:11 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Section on last 2000-years to: jto@u.arizona.edu,eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Peck and Eystein in case you tried (!), my phone has been broken for the last few days (yes - honestly). I am sorry I had to rush off - and stay longer than I had anticipated . [[[redacted: family]]] Given the time constraint , this "final" revision is not as considered as it might have been , but we have tried to take into account all comments available , and have given considerable attention to the IPCC terminology and emphasis on the bullet points . At this stage , however, there are some clear areas where future work will be required to keep abreast of recent developments and , perhaps, to re-balance the emphasis and structure. I apologise for not having responded directly to Fortunat, Stefan, Ricardo.Olga, David and Tom, but please be aware that I have considered all of their comments and done what I could to address them .Thanks Fortunat and Ricardo (and Ed - who should be added to the list of CAs) for the text and Figures and Henry and Jason for the help and data . David's suggestions about re-ordering the paragraphs was particularly difficult to resolve in my own mind , because I do see the logic , but equally , did not want to interfere with the time line approach to describing post- TAR work that underlies the current structure. as you can see I decided to leave the order as it was. It would be great if David and Fortunat could check cross Chapter referencing (eg in relation to forcings and detection chapters). We can revisit this , and the issue of McIntyre and McKitrick (centering of PCs in Mann et al reconstruction - which is clearly unfounded) until such time as the numerous responses are published. The new SH section is in , and the MWP box slightly amended to take account of the new Figure. Peck, I have considered your text on the regional section - and you will see that I have edited out some relating to future (and association between drought and SSTs) . I feel strongly that you are venturing into "observational" territory and speculation beyond what we should say. I have also amended the bullet points to reflect this. YOU ARE THE ULTIMATE ARBITERS and it is up to you if you wish to re-insert , but I will give you a continuing argument later about our overstepping the "paleo" boundary. Note also that the bullet on European summer 2004 has bee altered to reflect what was a last minute , one-sentence , insertion in the first paragraph regarding Jurg Lutterbacher's Science paper - as there was no mention of it otherwise. We had to remove the reference to "700 years in France" as I am not sure what this is , and it is not in the text anyway. The use of "likely" , "very likely" and my additional fudge word "unusual" are all carefully chosen where used. Tim has been a rock in the last minute rush here - not only doing the Figures , but also helping with the text. I am really grateful to him. He has sent the text , with some comments, and highlighted references, that need attention. If Oyvind can identify references and handle these problems with Endnote , we are also really grateful. The final references , if missing , are probably in the current text, the previous Endnote library , or in sections of text sent by Ricardo, Fortunat, Peck and Eystein. I trust when you guys have stiched the new text back in and the Figures etc. we will perhaps get a last chance to correct and check references etc. Thanks Keith -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 219. 2005-08-09 17:48:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 9 Aug 2005 17:48:39 UT from: grlonline@agu.org subject: 2005GL024155 Request to Review from Geophysical Research Letters to: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Dr. Briffa: Would you be willing and available to review "Are empirical climate reconstruction methods robust?" by Gerd Bürger, Ulrich Cubasch, submitted for possible publication in the Geophysical Research Letters. The manuscript's abstract is: 64 climate reconstructions, based on regression of temperature fields on multi-proxies and mutually distinguished by at least one of six standard criteria, cover an entire spread of millennial histories. No single criterion is accountable for the spread, which appears to depend on a complicated interplay of the criteria. The uncertainty is traced back to the fact that regression is applied here in an extrapolative manner, with millennial variations exceeding the standard calibration scale by a factor of 5 and more. Even if linearity still holds for that larger domain, the model error propagates in a way that is proportional to both the estimation error and the proxy variations, and is thus extrapolated accordingly. This is particularly critical for the parameter-loaded models of the analyzed kind. Without a model error estimate and without techniques to hold it small, it is not clear how these methods can be salvaged to become robust. If you agree to review this manuscript, I would ask for your comments within 14 days from your acceptance. To ACCEPT, click on the link below: If you are unable to review this manuscript at this time, I would appreciate any suggestions of other potential reviewers who would be qualified to examine this manuscript. (Via reply e-mail.) To DECLINE, click on the link below: If you have any questions or need more information feel free to reply to this e-mail. Thank you for your consideration and support of Geophysical Research Letters. Sincerely, Naohiro Yoshida Associate Editor Geophysical Research Letters 638. 2005-08-10 10:49:18 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Aug 10 10:49:18 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: 3.9 to: Kevin Trenberth , Peter Lemke Peter, Kevin Not having seen Ch 4, I agree that the term 'local heat budget' can be ambiguous. Are you also discussing the issue of 'dirty' glaciers? For the Alps, the Swiss (well Wilfried Haeberli) reckon that temperature alone cannot explain all the retreat in some recent summers (especially 2003). Would local heat budgets include the effects of local anthropogenic pollutants making the snow less white? Lonnie Thompson has been on Quelccaya in the last couple of months and reports that it is in an awful state. Like Kilimanjaro, the recent annual layers aren't distinguishable. Lonnie reckons a lot of retreat is caused by sublimation. On Quelccaya Lonnie and Ray Bradley have put up an AWS (on Sajama too). They've not got as much data as they hoped as both have fallen over due to melting and also the guide who helped them put one on Quelccaya later went back and brought it back down to try and sell ! I'm happy with Kevin's draft, if local heat budgets is explained in your chapter. Cheers Phil At 17:29 09/08/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Peter, Thanks (sorry I can't get rid of the blue). I am cc'ing Phil on this: Georg has suggested instead the following. The temperature increases are consistent with the observed nearly worldwide reduction in glacier and ice cap mass and extent with strongest recession rates in the 1930s and 1940s and after 1990 and little changes around 1970. Tropical glacier changes are synchronous with global ones, Kilimanjaro being an exception with radiatively forced constant retreat of the plateau ice. 20^th Century glacier retreats are consistent with temperature variations. Before 1900, glacier fluctuations are probably not only reflecting temperature variations but mainly precipitation anomalies. In the Tropics, glacier changes are related to atmospheric moisture variations which, in turn, correlate with sea surface temperatures in the respective source regions and varying atmospheric circulation modes. In some regions (Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram) moderately increased accumulation is observed indicating an amplified hydrological cycle. I am not altogether happy with this wording. In this bullet it reflects findings from your chapter and ours (wrt precip, temp, circulation etc). I would propose the following as a compromise between the old text and the proposed: The temperature increases are consistent with the observed nearly worldwide reduction in glacier and ice cap mass and extent in the 20th century. Tropical glacier changes in South America, Africa and Tibet are synchronous with global ones, and all have shown declines in recent decades. If continued, some may disappear within the next 30 years. Local temperature records all show a slight warming, but not of the magnitude required to explain the rapid reduction in mass of such glaciers (e.g., on Kilimanjaro), which instead depends on local heat budgets. Glaciers and ice caps respond not only to temperatures but also changes in precipitation, and before 1900, glacier fluctuations are probably not only reflecting temperature variations but mainly precipitation anomalies. In some regions moderately increased accumulation observed in recent decades is consistent with changes in atmospheric circulation and associated increases in winter precipitation (e.g., southwestern Norway, parts of coastal Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, and Fjordland of the South Island of New Zealand). Note I have retained a bit more detail on the regions affected, and tried to stay away from "radiatively forced" (whatever that means) and vague terms like "amplified hydrological cycle". I also want to retain more specific reference to the precip and circulation changes going together. Whether "local heat budgets" is adequate is my main question? I gather this is related to changes in cloud and sunshine, increased heating that goes into melting and ablation rather than temp increases. Should we spell that out? Do you deal with that? I also did not add the detail on the dates in first sentence as those should be in your chapter and they don't relate directly to the other variables. Are my terms "20th century" and "recent decades" correct? Thanks Kevin Peter Lemke wrote: Dear Kevin, after his return from the Kilimanjaro Georg has supplied a modification to the text in 3.9 concerning the glaciers. I have made a tiny change further down in the text replacing "order" by "approximately" meaning 1mm/year and not implying, say, 3mm/year. Best regards, Peter -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [1]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [2]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4642. 2005-08-10 12:12:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Aug 10 12:12:26 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: This morning's revisions to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Revised draft. Been through the DTR stuff and also changed parts of 3.2.2.1, following some emails from Tom Peterson. I removed ref to Argentina and Vincent et al. Didn't seem that appropriate. Sent Vinvent et al, so you can see. Also this version still has some of my comments in. You've responded to them, but they need removing. Emailed Russ saying we want map without grids. Now just waiting till he gets in. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1802. 2005-08-10 16:03:33 ______________________________________________________ cc: Peter Lemke date: Wed Aug 10 16:03:33 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: to: Georg Kaser , Kevin Trenberth Georg, Send us a revised bullet point and we'll modify it into better English. Do bear in mind we are only talking about a few sentences and this is still the FOD. Hopefully you can get this to us tomorrow. Maybe we just need to be a little more specific about regions. I just used Kilimanjaro as an example, as it had received, I felt, more attention in the media. Apart from hearing about it from Lonnie, I did see it on a BBC news item once. Few people know that there are any glaciers in Irian Jaya. Cheers Phil At 14:24 10/08/2005, Georg Kaser wrote: Kevin, Have many thanks for compiling and editing 3.9. I agree that the "radiatively forced" and the "amplified hydrological cycle" should be removed and I also agree with Phil's comment on the "local heat budget". In glaciology, the sum of each energy flux toward and from the respective snow/ice surface is considered to make up the "local heat budget". This also includes the sensible heat flux. There are some other points in the text which I would like to comment: 1. Tropical glaciers are considered those in the South American Andes between Venezuela and Norhern Boliva, those in East Africa and those in Irian Jaya (New Guinea). In Chapter 4, Tibetean glaiers are taken as part of the Asian High Mountains (find the present state Chapter 4.5. "Glaciers and Ice Caps attached). 2. Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, Norway and NZ cannot be merged in the respective statement. In Alaska and Patagonia, moderately increase accumulation is accompanied by strongly enhanced ablation making the mass balances markedly negative. From glaciological site, no studies concerning atmospheric circulation patterns are provided in the respective studies. In the Karakoram mountains, enhanced accumulation has led to considerable glacier advances, increased winter accumulation from the Westerlies is only suggested but not subject of detailed studies. Heavy debris loads on the tongues probably prevent from enhanced abaltion. In Southwest Norway and NZ South Island, glaciers advances have ceded around 2000. I don't know whether their advances shall still be mentioned in extension; I would not do so beyond the respective statement in Ch. 4.5. 3. "If continued, some may disappear within the next 30 years." This sentence can stand for every mountain region in the world and should not be used for tropical mountains only. Everywhere, many small glaciers have disappeared since the 19th Century maxima and many will disappear soon in the Alps, the Caucasus, in the Asian High mountains etc. as well as in the Tropics. From the today's perspective Mount Kenya, all Mountains in the Rwenzori Range except Mt. Stanley, Irain Jaya will be without glaciers soon, probably sooner than Kilimanjaro; well known and studied glaciers in the Andes like Chacaltaya, Charquini and Pastoruri will also disappear soon. This is not because of a particular regional climate feature but just because they were already small when retreats started. As you will see from Figure 4.5.5. Kilimanjaro's plateau ice is particular, slope glaciers are less. The plateau glaciers retreat from their vertical walls where no accumulation is possible and since they do so, there is no way to find an equilibrium besides disappearance. The vertical walls are a result of cold temperatures high sublimation and strong solar radiance. There is no way to replace the retreat by ice dynamics on the flat summit plateau. Slope glaciers are only partially subject of this kind of ablation and their retreat rate seems to have slowed markedly (See insert of Fig 4.5.5). If Kilimanjaro is mentioned in 3.9. it must also be added that it is a particular case with complex relation to climate change. 4. All studies which investigate tropical glacier retreat and climate show the dominance of changes in energy and mass balance terms which are related to the atmospheric moisture content rather than locally measured air temperatures. Both increased and reduced moisture can lead to negative mass balances and it has done so in most cases studied (Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Cordillera Real, Bolivia, Antisana, Ecuador, Rwenzori, Mt. Kenia, Kilimanjaro). Yet, wherever respective analyses were made, correlations were found to anomalies in ENSO or Indian Oceans Indian Ocean Dipole Mode respectively strongly indicating global warming as the principle reason of th eretreat. I give you this lengthy explanation in order to make sure that the very compressed and condensed bullet in 3.9. gets the right content. I have started to change your paragraph suggestion accordingly but have to admit that, not being a native speaker myself, it either becomes very long or very awkward. I also appreciate Phil's statement about Quelccaya and Sajama. Doug Hardy and Ray Bradley run AWS' there since a couple of years as well as on Kilimanjaro with all the problems of recording data at such high elevation sites. Doug is preparing a paper on the climate records there but it has still not reached it's final state. Information on sublimation on Quelccaya is not published such as the positive mass balances and advances on several Andean glaciers between 1998 and 2002 are not published. Kilimanjaro has experienced both ablation as well as accumulation layers on the horizontal surfaces over the last years. I have just come back from fieldwork there last week and the last half year was a mass loss year. Being very much involved into tropical glaciers myself, I have to accept that such detailed information would be available for several hundreds of glaciers in the world each one providing 10 or more publications. Going into such details cannot be the aim of the report, I am afraid. Best wishes, Georg Georg Kaser ------------------------------------------------- Institut fuer Geographie Innrain 52 A-6020 INNSBRUCK Tel: ++43 512 507 5407 Fax: ++43 512 507 2895 [1]http://meteo9.uibk.ac.at/IceClim/CRYO/cryo_a.html Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 318. 2005-08-10 16:15:52 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Aug 10 16:15:52 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: krakatau and 1902 to: Tom Crowley Tom, I've been in contact with Kevin Trenberth daily for the past month or two ! He's normally emailed me by now, but I have some relief today. Phil At 15:18 10/08/2005, you wrote: Phil, Gabi is very busy indeed and it is no coincidence that our departure date comes so shortly after the the CLAs send off their FODs - Gabi seems to be in constant communication with Francis Z. on this. I understand your rationale about high latitude cooling in 1902, but believe me we have seven cores now from Greenland, and one from Mt. Logan, and the 1902 eruption occurs in only two of them - the evidence is pretty strong that the sulphate loading is just not there in high latitudes, so you may be looking at some teleconnective cooling in regions from Europe and eastern N. America -- v. strong PNA with a dash of sulphate? tom Phil Jones wrote: Tom, OK re the data. I thought you'd already gone to Europe. So make a not for when you get back. I presume Gabi will be pleased to send that final Ch 9 file to WGI on Friday. I'll be having next week off. 1902 could be a La Nina as far as global temps occur, but the pattern shows more cooling in higher lats, like typical volcanoes (especially in Europe and eastern N. America). Also there was more than one volcano in the year. Have a good month away ! Cheers Phil At 14:33 10/08/2005, you wrote: Phil, thanks, actually the tree ring density data shows a clear Krakatau cooling in high latitudes, and I have an unpublished composite of paleo tropical proxies that shows cooler temps than you reconstruct. the 1902 sulphate data are pretty good - there is very weak evidence for any type of significant sulphate loading from the eruptions - could you possibly just be having a super la nina? tom ps we leave for europe on sunday, won't be able to get data to you until after I return, sept. 9 Phil Jones wrote: Tom, I can't recall where we might have mentioned this, so here's some papers (below). Figure 2 in the first paper looks the best, but he text doesn't seem to say anything specific. Figure shows Krakatau response is pretty small, compared to Pinatubo and also to the 1902 eruption(s). This paper shows 1902 response is much larger, and larger than Pinatubo. So my take would be 1902 should be large. Is Krakatau smaller because a lot of water might have been involved. Don't forget to send your various datasets when you get a chance. Cheers Phil PS the other two papers may say something - the GRL one especially. I can't seem to find a copy of that. Kelly, P.M., Pengqun, J. and Jones, P.D., 1996: The spatial temperature response to large volcanic eruptions. International Journal of Climatology 16, 537-550. Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R. and Schweingruber, F.H., 1995: Tree-ring evidence of the widespread effects of explosive volcanic eruptions. Geophysical Research Letters 22, 1333 1336. Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H. and Osborn, T.J., 1998: Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the last 600 years. Nature 393, 450-455. At 00:43 10/08/2005, you wrote: Phil, I know you have mentioned before that you cannot find evidence in your instrumental reconstruction for a significant Krakatau cooling - but where do you actually mention it? I would like to cite this because I am finally writing up my ice core calibration comparison with Sato, and our global Krakatau value is slightly (~6%) greater than Pinatubo. also have you ever commented on the lack of cooling from the 1902 eruptions? Myles claims that this has been discussed, but I have not seen it. The reason I ask is that we think that Sato et al have significantly overestimated the aod for these eruptions - most ice cores in both Antarctica and Greenland (and we have examined 22) do not have the event. thanks for any help, regards, tom Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [2]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2654. 2005-08-10 17:06:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: Georg Kaser , Peter Lemke date: Wed Aug 10 17:06:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: to: Kevin Trenberth Sort of arguing that way. It is also the before 1900 part. Precip and temp anomalies are important at all times for glaciers. Their influence didn't change around 1900. So what about Precipitation anomalies are also important before 1900. I'd not got the implication. Adding also makes it clearer. Phil At 16:56 10/08/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Phil is arguing for changes to 4.5. Maybe the statement is too strong although it is consistent with the last para of 4.5.2.? An alternative might be: Precipitation anomalies are important before 1900. In the context this implies in addition to temperature. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Georg, I've now also looked at the figures you sent from Ch 4. Kevin has the sentence, which Peter may have added? I reckon this is too strong. Can we omit it? Sentence is Before 1900, glacier fluctuations probably mainly reflect precipitation anomalies. Reasoning Is this a general statement. I wonder if we need it. Oerlemans uses estimated glacier termini positions (and related ELA changes) to infer past temperatures and you have his figure. I know he assumes precip to have remained essentially the same but he backs out temperature. Also glaciers in Europe advanced in the 17th and 18th centuries. It was cooler then (more so in winter than summer). I also have a paper resubmitted to JGR where Alpine precip shows no long-term changes since 1800. This uses loads of stations and is from the ALP-IMP project that ZAMG co-ordinate (Reinhard Boehm). So the advances are caused by more precip, but the retreats by higher summer T and maybe less winter precip. Cheers Phil At 16:23 10/08/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Georg Many thanks for the attachments. I had looked at the ZOD but this is much more informative. Based on your comments and the 4.5 section I have come up with the following bullet. Note that here we are writing for a general audience. I have now tried to include more clearly the factors involved. I think these are consistent with your chapter but the language in your chapter might be improved in a couple of places. For instance an important forcing is radiation (solar and IR) which are greatly impacted by clouds, water vapor, and albedo (the dirty cover on top of snow Phil referred to), and I thought these could be brought out better in your chapter. These are perhaps more basic that temperature lapse rates and precipitation gradients which are consequences. In 4.5.2 you use the term "radiatively forced" but it is not clear what that means. I suggest using some of these terms. Also it is not clear what "amplified hydrological cycle" means. [FYI, the expectation is for more intense precipitation, not necessarily for more total (owing to pollution effects). The former is determined by increased water vapor]. I took some of your words in the following. We need to emphasize that glaciers are not just high latitudes. I retained Kilimanjaro as that has received a lot of publicity. Some of this is necessarily abrupt, but there will be a reference to 4.5 immediately following this bullet. So the recent reversals in NZ and Norway can not be dealt with here. Let me know if you have further suggestions. Again, many thanks Regards Kevin o The temperature increases are consistent with the observed nearly worldwide reduction in glacier and ice cap mass and extent in the 20^th century. Tropical glacier changes in South America and Africa, and those in Tibet are synchronous with higher latitude ones, and all have shown declines in recent decades. Local temperature records all show a slight warming, but not of the magnitude required to explain the rapid reduction in mass of such glaciers (e.g., on Kilimanjaro). Glaciers and ice caps respond not only to temperatures but also changes in precipitation, and both global mean winter accumulation and summer melting have increased over the last half century in association with temperature increases. Other factors in recent ablation include changes in cloudiness and water vapour and associated radiation, and surface sensible heat exchange. Before 1900, glacier fluctuations probably mainly reflect precipitation anomalies. In some regions moderately increased accumulation observed in recent decades is consistent with changes in atmospheric circulation and associated increases in winter precipitation (e.g., southwestern Norway, parts of coastal Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, and Fjordland of the South Island of New Zealand) even as enhanced ablation has led to marked declines in mass balances in Alaska and Patagonia. Georg Kaser wrote: Kevin, Have many thanks for compiling and editing 3.9. I agree that the "radiatively forced" and the "amplified hydrological cycle" should be removed and I also agree with Phil's comment on the "local heat budget". In glaciology, the sum of each energy flux toward and from the respective snow/ice surface is considered to make up the "local heat budget". This also includes the sensible heat flux. There are some other points in the text which I would like to comment: 1. Tropical glaciers are considered those in the South American Andes between Venezuela and Norhern Boliva, those in East Africa and those in Irian Jaya (New Guinea). In Chapter 4, Tibetean glaiers are taken as part of the Asian High Mountains (find the present state Chapter 4.5. "Glaciers and Ice Caps attached). 2. Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, Norway and NZ cannot be merged in the respective statement. In Alaska and Patagonia, moderately increase accumulation is accompanied by strongly enhanced ablation making the mass balances markedly negative. From glaciological site, no studies concerning atmospheric circulation patterns are provided in the respective studies. In the Karakoram mountains, enhanced accumulation has led to considerable glacier advances, increased winter accumulation from the Westerlies is only suggested but not subject of detailed studies. Heavy debris loads on the tongues probably prevent from enhanced abaltion. In Southwest Norway and NZ South Island, glaciers advances have ceded around 2000. I don't know whether their advances shall still be mentioned in extension; I would not do so beyond the respective statement in Ch. 4.5. 3. "If continued, some may disappear within the next 30 years." This sentence can stand for every mountain region in the world and should not be used for tropical mountains only. Everywhere, many small glaciers have disappeared since the 19th Century maxima and many will disappear soon in the Alps, the Caucasus, in the Asian High mountains etc. as well as in the Tropics. From the today's perspective Mount Kenya, all Mountains in the Rwenzori Range except Mt. Stanley, Irain Jaya will be without glaciers soon, probably sooner than Kilimanjaro; well known and studied glaciers in the Andes like Chacaltaya, Charquini and Pastoruri will also disappear soon. This is not because of a particular regional climate feature but just because they were already small when retreats started. As you will see from Figure 4.5.5. Kilimanjaro's plateau ice is particular, slope glaciers are less. The plateau glaciers retreat from their vertical walls where no accumulation is possible and since they do so, there is no way to find an equilibrium besides disappearance. The vertical walls are a result of cold temperatures high sublimation and strong solar radiance. There is no way to replace the retreat by ice dynamics on the flat summit plateau. Slope glaciers are only partially subject of this kind of ablation and their retreat rate seems to have slowed markedly (See insert of Fig 4.5.5). If Kilimanjaro is mentioned in 3.9. it must also be added that it is a particular case with complex relation to climate change. 4. All studies which investigate tropical glacier retreat and climate show the dominance of changes in energy and mass balance terms which are related to the atmospheric moisture content rather than locally measured air temperatures. Both increased and reduced moisture can lead to negative mass balances and it has done so in most cases studied (Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Cordillera Real, Bolivia, Antisana, Ecuador, Rwenzori, Mt. Kenia, Kilimanjaro). Yet, wherever respective analyses were made, correlations were found to anomalies in ENSO or Indian Oceans Indian Ocean Dipole Mode respectively strongly indicating global warming as the principle reason of th eretreat. I give you this lengthy explanation in order to make sure that the very compressed and condensed bullet in 3.9. gets the right content. I have started to change your paragraph suggestion accordingly but have to admit that, not being a native speaker myself, it either becomes very long or very awkward. I also appreciate Phil's statement about Quelccaya and Sajama. Doug Hardy and Ray Bradley run AWS' there since a couple of years as well as on Kilimanjaro with all the problems of recording data at such high elevation sites. Doug is preparing a paper on the climate records there but it has still not reached it's final state. Information on sublimation on Quelccaya is not published such as the positive mass balances and advances on several Andean glaciers between 1998 and 2002 are not published. Kilimanjaro has experienced both ablation as well as accumulation layers on the horizontal surfaces over the last years. I have just come back from fieldwork there last week and the last half year was a mass loss year. Being very much involved into tropical glaciers myself, I have to accept that such detailed information would be available for several hundreds of glaciers in the world each one providing 10 or more publications. Going into such details cannot be the aim of the report, I am afraid. Best wishes, Georg Georg Kaser ------------------------------------------------- Institut fuer Geographie Innrain 52 A-6020 INNSBRUCK Tel: ++43 512 507 5407 Fax: ++43 512 507 2895 [1]http://meteo9.uibk.ac.at/IceClim/CRYO/cryo_a.html -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [5]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [6]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 302. 2005-08-10 17:13:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Aug 10 17:13:37 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: to: Kevin Trenberth Fine with me. Let's hope they agree by tomorrow. Phil At 17:11 10/08/2005, you wrote: Ok so here is how it now reads: The temperature increases are consistent with the observed nearly worldwide reduction in glacier and ice cap mass and extent in the 20^th century. Tropical glacier changes in South America and Africa, and those in Tibet are synchronous with higher latitude ones, and all have shown declines in recent decades. Local temperature records all show a slight warming, but not of the magnitude required to explain the rapid reduction in mass of such glaciers (e.g., on Kilimanjaro). Glaciers and ice caps respond not only to temperatures but also changes in precipitation, and both global mean winter accumulation and summer melting have increased over the last half century in association with temperature increases. Other factors in recent ablation include changes in cloudiness and water vapour and associated radiation, and surface sensible heat exchange. Precipitation anomalies are also important before 1900 in glacier fluctuations. In some regions moderately increased accumulation observed in recent decades is consistent with changes in atmospheric circulation and associated increases in winter precipitation (e.g., southwestern Norway, parts of coastal Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, and Fjordland of the South Island of New Zealand) even as enhanced ablation has led to marked declines in mass balances in Alaska and Patagonia. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Sort of arguing that way. It is also the before 1900 part. Precip and temp anomalies are important at all times for glaciers. Their influence didn't change around 1900. So what about Precipitation anomalies are also important before 1900. I'd not got the implication. Adding also makes it clearer. Phil At 16:56 10/08/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Phil is arguing for changes to 4.5. Maybe the statement is too strong although it is consistent with the last para of 4.5.2.? An alternative might be: Precipitation anomalies are important before 1900. In the context this implies in addition to temperature. Kevin Phil Jones wrote: Georg, I've now also looked at the figures you sent from Ch 4. Kevin has the sentence, which Peter may have added? I reckon this is too strong. Can we omit it? Sentence is Before 1900, glacier fluctuations probably mainly reflect precipitation anomalies. Reasoning Is this a general statement. I wonder if we need it. Oerlemans uses estimated glacier termini positions (and related ELA changes) to infer past temperatures and you have his figure. I know he assumes precip to have remained essentially the same but he backs out temperature. Also glaciers in Europe advanced in the 17th and 18th centuries. It was cooler then (more so in winter than summer). I also have a paper resubmitted to JGR where Alpine precip shows no long-term changes since 1800. This uses loads of stations and is from the ALP-IMP project that ZAMG co-ordinate (Reinhard Boehm). So the advances are caused by more precip, but the retreats by higher summer T and maybe less winter precip. Cheers Phil At 16:23 10/08/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: Hi Georg Many thanks for the attachments. I had looked at the ZOD but this is much more informative. Based on your comments and the 4.5 section I have come up with the following bullet. Note that here we are writing for a general audience. I have now tried to include more clearly the factors involved. I think these are consistent with your chapter but the language in your chapter might be improved in a couple of places. For instance an important forcing is radiation (solar and IR) which are greatly impacted by clouds, water vapor, and albedo (the dirty cover on top of snow Phil referred to), and I thought these could be brought out better in your chapter. These are perhaps more basic that temperature lapse rates and precipitation gradients which are consequences. In 4.5.2 you use the term "radiatively forced" but it is not clear what that means. I suggest using some of these terms. Also it is not clear what "amplified hydrological cycle" means. [FYI, the expectation is for more intense precipitation, not necessarily for more total (owing to pollution effects). The former is determined by increased water vapor]. I took some of your words in the following. We need to emphasize that glaciers are not just high latitudes. I retained Kilimanjaro as that has received a lot of publicity. Some of this is necessarily abrupt, but there will be a reference to 4.5 immediately following this bullet. So the recent reversals in NZ and Norway can not be dealt with here. Let me know if you have further suggestions. Again, many thanks Regards Kevin o The temperature increases are consistent with the observed nearly worldwide reduction in glacier and ice cap mass and extent in the 20^th century. Tropical glacier changes in South America and Africa, and those in Tibet are synchronous with higher latitude ones, and all have shown declines in recent decades. Local temperature records all show a slight warming, but not of the magnitude required to explain the rapid reduction in mass of such glaciers (e.g., on Kilimanjaro). Glaciers and ice caps respond not only to temperatures but also changes in precipitation, and both global mean winter accumulation and summer melting have increased over the last half century in association with temperature increases. Other factors in recent ablation include changes in cloudiness and water vapour and associated radiation, and surface sensible heat exchange. Before 1900, glacier fluctuations probably mainly reflect precipitation anomalies. In some regions moderately increased accumulation observed in recent decades is consistent with changes in atmospheric circulation and associated increases in winter precipitation (e.g., southwestern Norway, parts of coastal Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, and Fjordland of the South Island of New Zealand) even as enhanced ablation has led to marked declines in mass balances in Alaska and Patagonia. Georg Kaser wrote: Kevin, Have many thanks for compiling and editing 3.9. I agree that the "radiatively forced" and the "amplified hydrological cycle" should be removed and I also agree with Phil's comment on the "local heat budget". In glaciology, the sum of each energy flux toward and from the respective snow/ice surface is considered to make up the "local heat budget". This also includes the sensible heat flux. There are some other points in the text which I would like to comment: 1. Tropical glaciers are considered those in the South American Andes between Venezuela and Norhern Boliva, those in East Africa and those in Irian Jaya (New Guinea). In Chapter 4, Tibetean glaiers are taken as part of the Asian High Mountains (find the present state Chapter 4.5. "Glaciers and Ice Caps attached). 2. Alaska, Patagonia, Karakoram, Norway and NZ cannot be merged in the respective statement. In Alaska and Patagonia, moderately increase accumulation is accompanied by strongly enhanced ablation making the mass balances markedly negative. From glaciological site, no studies concerning atmospheric circulation patterns are provided in the respective studies. In the Karakoram mountains, enhanced accumulation has led to considerable glacier advances, increased winter accumulation from the Westerlies is only suggested but not subject of detailed studies. Heavy debris loads on the tongues probably prevent from enhanced abaltion. In Southwest Norway and NZ South Island, glaciers advances have ceded around 2000. I don't know whether their advances shall still be mentioned in extension; I would not do so beyond the respective statement in Ch. 4.5. 3. "If continued, some may disappear within the next 30 years." This sentence can stand for every mountain region in the world and should not be used for tropical mountains only. Everywhere, many small glaciers have disappeared since the 19th Century maxima and many will disappear soon in the Alps, the Caucasus, in the Asian High mountains etc. as well as in the Tropics. From the today's perspective Mount Kenya, all Mountains in the Rwenzori Range except Mt. Stanley, Irain Jaya will be without glaciers soon, probably sooner than Kilimanjaro; well known and studied glaciers in the Andes like Chacaltaya, Charquini and Pastoruri will also disappear soon. This is not because of a particular regional climate feature but just because they were already small when retreats started. As you will see from Figure 4.5.5. Kilimanjaro's plateau ice is particular, slope glaciers are less. The plateau glaciers retreat from their vertical walls where no accumulation is possible and since they do so, there is no way to find an equilibrium besides disappearance. The vertical walls are a result of cold temperatures high sublimation and strong solar radiance. There is no way to replace the retreat by ice dynamics on the flat summit plateau. Slope glaciers are only partially subject of this kind of ablation and their retreat rate seems to have slowed markedly (See insert of Fig 4.5.5). If Kilimanjaro is mentioned in 3.9. it must also be added that it is a particular case with complex relation to climate change. 4. All studies which investigate tropical glacier retreat and climate show the dominance of changes in energy and mass balance terms which are related to the atmospheric moisture content rather than locally measured air temperatures. Both increased and reduced moisture can lead to negative mass balances and it has done so in most cases studied (Cordillera Blanca, Peru, Cordillera Real, Bolivia, Antisana, Ecuador, Rwenzori, Mt. Kenia, Kilimanjaro). Yet, wherever respective analyses were made, correlations were found to anomalies in ENSO or Indian Oceans Indian Ocean Dipole Mode respectively strongly indicating global warming as the principle reason of th eretreat. I give you this lengthy explanation in order to make sure that the very compressed and condensed bullet in 3.9. gets the right content. I have started to change your paragraph suggestion accordingly but have to admit that, not being a native speaker myself, it either becomes very long or very awkward. I also appreciate Phil's statement about Quelccaya and Sajama. Doug Hardy and Ray Bradley run AWS' there since a couple of years as well as on Kilimanjaro with all the problems of recording data at such high elevation sites. Doug is preparing a paper on the climate records there but it has still not reached it's final state. Information on sublimation on Quelccaya is not published such as the positive mass balances and advances on several Andean glaciers between 1998 and 2002 are not published. Kilimanjaro has experienced both ablation as well as accumulation layers on the horizontal surfaces over the last years. I have just come back from fieldwork there last week and the last half year was a mass loss year. Being very much involved into tropical glaciers myself, I have to accept that such detailed information would be available for several hundreds of glaciers in the world each one providing 10 or more publications. Going into such details cannot be the aim of the report, I am afraid. Best wishes, Georg Georg Kaser ------------------------------------------------- Institut fuer Geographie Innrain 52 A-6020 INNSBRUCK Tel: ++43 512 507 5407 Fax: ++43 512 507 2895 [1]http://meteo9.uibk.ac.at/IceClim/CRYO/cryo_a.html -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [2]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [3]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [5]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [6]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [7]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [8]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [9]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2457. 2005-08-11 09:48:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 11 09:48:26 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: logbooks and things to: "Dennis Wheeler" Dennis, I've sent some emails here, but people are away this week. I'm off next week, so maybe you'll get something in a week or two. Cheers Phil At 09:16 11/08/2005, you wrote: Phil, Thanks for your prompt reply. There's clearly some talking to be done in Exeter. I don't know if you are interested, but we are planning a working dinner on the Tuesday evening to review the whole logbook/imaging/digitisation enterprise. Philip Brohan and his people will be there, together with Clive, myself, Scott and Joe. You'd be more than welcome. I'd certainly appreciate anything that you can direct to me with regard to successful (or, even, otherwise) bid documents. regards Dennis ----- Original Message ----- From: [1]Phil Jones To: [2]Dennis Wheeler Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2005 8:44 AM Subject: Re: logbooks and things Dennis, I am planning to come to the marine meeting in Exeter in October. There is an additional day on the Friday for MSLP, which Rob is putting together. On Gibraltar, it would be good to sort out the record once and for all, and if it involves using more of Cadiz, then so be it. It needs to be Gibraltar from the 1850s onwards though as this is by far the easiest to update. So, lets try and work on that. We could discuss this more in Exeter. In the long run it would be useful to try and sort out the temperatures also, but with the elevation and time schedule changes this is likely to be more difficult than MSLP. I've not managed to find the original copies of the Gibraltar data I got from Hubert Lamb. They are likely in my room somewhere, but I would need weeks to go through it. CRU has to clear out a store in a barn about 5 miles away over the next 2 months, so I might find them there! I saw Clive a few weeks ago, so am up to speed on what he's doing. It is good that he's got some funding for another year. As for getting funds from NERC, this is likely to optimistic, but if we don't even try we will never know. We've not been very successful with NERC over the years. They have just changed their submission strategy to an online submission and I've not yet used that. I don't know when deadlines are, but agree that we might stand more chance if it came from here rather than Sunderland. They also do joint submissions. I'm away next week, so I'll send a couple of emails to see if I can get sent (to you) copies of some recent successful ones - one for a new researcher and one for one of the thematic programs. NERC have an enabling fund, but calls for this have been stopped for this year as they are short of cash. We've been looking into this for updating some of widely used high-res datasets, and it seemed possible until the fund was dropped for a year. With NERC though we should use the impetus of the US and the CLIWOC special issue and the EU book. As for Catherine, I spoke to her a while ago. I've had that topic on the list for a few years, had some interest from students, but not been successful here as I have too many students at the moment. Some have completed now or will do soon, so I might have more chance this time (this will be late autumn/winter). Despite all the things you might read in the media, about students not wanting to do PhDs, we still require them to have a first and an MSc. We still manage to get them. Maybe this coming year will be different though. If you give her a good reference and say she is excellent, I might stand more chance. Also say topic is great also. I've probably rambled on enough now.... Cheers Phil At 20:59 10/08/2005, you wrote: Phil, As promised, Ive written to keep you up-to-date with developments and also, although more of that later, to seek your expert advice. Firstly, Ive been reworking the early Gibraltar air pressure data. As you may know, Ive not been entirely happy with the 1821-1852 part of the series. Ive been out to Gibraltar (courtesy of a grant from the RMS Legacy Fund) and abstracted again the 0900 series to check its accuracy, but Ive also taken the 1200 and 1700 observations for completeness and added the temperature obs for the same fixed hours. Time limited me to securing only the 1821 to 1830 part of the three decades. However, Ive been able to set these data against those for Cadiz for the same period (the INM kindly sent me photocopies of the very many original sheets that contain the latter and they gone on for many more years). The results so far but theyre far from complete suggest that my concerns may be unfounded. If this is the case, then the data are good but their behaviour suggests something very unusual about pressure variations at the southern end of the NAO for these years. Either way, Im becoming convinced that the Cadiz data would be a better basis for these years. Although they would need to be homogenised into the Gibraltar set. But this wouldnt be difficult. Ill keep you posted. Theres still a way to go on this, but it looks promising. By the way, Ive been asked to send a reference on behalf of a former CLIWOC abstractor, Catharine Ward, who wants to work on your Paris data project and the NAO ramifications. Ill get this off to you in the post tomorrow apologies for the delay. Secondly, logbook studies are continuing and, happily, within a new EU grant. You may have heard that Danny McCarroll (Swansea) led a successful bid for a so-called Millennium project which is, essentially, a European version of your work with Mike Mann for the 1000-year climate record. Doubtless the EU wanted a European version for political reasons but, as youll appreciate more than anyone, theres a good scientific basis for such a regional expression of the global scheme that you have produced with Mike. But I digress; I was asked to join the documentary team of the project (there others are for dendrochronology, terrestrial sediments, marine sediments and a multi-proxy calibration team) by Rudolf Brazdil. My brief is to supply logbook data, but Ive also written myself in to take care of the Gibraltar-Cadiz series, so I should be able to complete the unfinished work mentioned above. I have about 110,000 and will be able to employ one abstractor for at least a year, maybe longer. Its nothing on the CLIWOC scale, but were only using logbooks from the NE Atlantic and, helpfully, the Mediterranean. Clive, as you will probably know, is employed for this year by NCDC and is, with his usual attention to detail and thoroughness, preparing a directory of logbooks that can be expected to supply useful (mostly instrumental) climatic data. Scott and Joe Elms have secured about $700,000 for logbook digitisation, leaving the UK people to secure money to provide the images. Their funds, for reasons of US Government policy, cannot be spent outside the USA and Clives employment is a bit of a one-off exception. As a result Im trying to get money to produce a very large number of logbook images. Im working with Philip Brohan, Simon Tett and Rob Allen with a view to approaching NERC. The US support is obviously helpful but, on the other hand, I dont think that wed get much change from asking NERC for money to take lots of photos! So were thinking of tying the whole thing in with some research at the Hadley Centre and focussing on those logbooks that provide instrumental data. At the moment our plan, such as it is, is to consider using these data to test proxy and multi-proxy calibrations from other independently-derived series. Of course, the US folk would get copies for their warehouses full of people to digitise, but we might need to underplay that side of things. Id very much welcome your thoughts on this one Phil. Also, if its possible and practical, Id like to see a copy of a climate-based bid that has gone forward to NERC. Could you let me have such a thing without breaking confidences etc.? Ive not applied to them before, and Im a little in the dark on what they might expect in a bid document. The regulations will require that myself and the University are the leaders as the UK Met Office cannot receive funds directly from NERC. Alternatively, might CRU be interested in becoming involved? At this stage were open to any offers of support, guidance or participation. Needless to say, Im concerned that the university of Sunderland will not carry a great deal of academic weight with NERC. Otherwise, Ive had no luck elsewhere and its all a little embarrassing given the Americans enthusiasm and commitment. I probably beginning to ramble a bit here, so Ill close, but let me know your views on this and the other matters above. Scott and Joe Elms are coming over for the MARCDAT II meeting in Exeter in October. Clive is attending also, and Im giving short presentation on the instrumental data to be found in the logbooks of the EIC ships. Do you plan to attend? Regards Dennis Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1873. 2005-08-11 12:25:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 11 12:25:39 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: to: "Sari Kovats" Sari, We have some boxes on recent extremes around the world. Here are the two European ones. You can see we have little on impacts. we are leaving that to WG2. Hope this is all you need. Lots of press to deal with today re the Guardian front page. If you see Jean again, ask her to check her email. Small problem with an external examination. Cheers Phil Box 3.5.4 Floods in Europe, Summer 2002 A catastrophic flood occurred along several central European rivers in August 2002. The floods resulting from this extraordinary high precipitation were enhanced by the fact that the soils were completely saturated and the river water levels were already high because of previous rain (Ulbrich et al., 2003ab; Rudolf and Rapp, 2003). Hence it was part of a pattern of weather over an extended period. In the flood, the water levels of the Elbe at Dresden reached a maximum mark of 9.4 m, which is the highest level since records began in 1275 (Ulbrich et al., 2003a). Some small villages in the Erz Mountains (on tributaries of the Elbe) were hit by extraordinary flash floods. The river Vltava inundated the city of Prague before contributing to the Elbe flood. A return period of 500 years was estimated for the flood levels at Prague (Grollmann and Simon, 2002). The central European floods were caused by two heavy precipitation episodes. The first, on 67 August was situated mainly over Lower Austria, the southwestern part of the Czech Republic and southeastern Germany. The second took place on 1113 August 2002 and most severely affected the Erz Mountains and western parts of the Czech Republic. A slowly moving low pressure system moved from the Mediterranean Sea to central Europe on a path over or near the eastern Alps and led to large-scale, strong and quasi-stationary frontal lifting of air with very high liquid water content. Additional to this advective rain were convective precipitation processes (showers and thunderstorms) and a significant orographic lifting (mainly over the Erz Mountains). A maximum 24-hour-precipitation total of 353 mm was observed at the German station Zinnwald-Georgenfeld, a new record for Germany. The synoptic situation of the floods is well known to meteorologists of the region. Similar situations led to the summer floods of the River Oder in 1997 and the River Vistula in 2001 (Ulbrich et al., 2003b). Average summer precipitation trends in the region are negative but barely significant (Schönwiese and Rapp, 1997) and there is no significant trend in flood occurrences of the Elbe within the last 500 years (Mudelsee et al., 2003). However, the observed increase in precipitation variability at a majority of German precipitation stations during the last century (Trömel and Schönwiese, 2005) is indicative of an enhancement of the probability of both floods and droughts. Box 3.5.5 Heat Wave in Europe, Summer 2003 The heat wave that affected many parts of Europe during the course of summer 2003 produced record-breaking temperatures particularly during June and August (Beniston, 2004; Schär et al., 2004), see Figure 3.8.6. Absolute maximum temperatures exceeded the record temperatures observed in the 1940s and early 1950s in many locations in France, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom according to the information supplied by national weather agencies (WMO, 2003). Gridded instrumental temperatures (from HadCRUT2v for the region 35-50°N, 0-20°E) show that the summer was the warmest since comparative records began in 1780 (3.8 K above the 1961-90 average) and 1.4 K warmer than any other summer in this period (next warmest 1807). Luterbacher et al. (2004) estimate that 2003 is likely to have been the warmest summer since 1500 based on earlier documentary records. The 2003 heat wave was associated with a very robust and persistent blocking high pressure system that some weather services suggested may be a manifestation of an exceptional northward extension of the Hadley Cell. Already a record month in terms of maximum temperatures, June exhibited high geopotential values that penetrated northwards towards the British Isles, with the greatest northward extension and longest persistence of record-high temperatures observed in August. An exacerbating factor for the temperature extremes was the lack of precipitation in many parts of western and central Europe, leading to much-reduced soil moisture and surface evaporation and evapotranspiration, and thus to a strong positive feedback effect (Beniston and Diaz, 2004). At 11:55 11/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Phil I am sitting in ipcc chapter (health) meeting with Jean Palutikof - and she mentions you are saying something on climate change and august 2003 europe heatwave. We have a bit to say on this (and about early casualties of clmate change) and so clearly need to know your assessment- is it possible to send us this text/paragraph today ? as we are finalising draft now.. thanks very much Sari ******************* Sari Kovats Lecturer Public and Environmental Health Research Unit (PEHRU) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT tel: +44 20 7927 2962 fax: +44 20 7580 4524 sari.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3331. 2005-08-12 08:59:56 ______________________________________________________ cc: mann@psu.edu, Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 08:59:56 -0600 from: Caspar Ammann subject: Re: [Fwd: Storch drift] to: Stefan Rahmstorf Stefan, this is very important news indeed. The runs will get a huge hit from this. The only way a coupled model can get a continued trend (without invoking an energy leak somewhere) is when there is a terrible deep-ocean spin up available even for their present day initialization, not to speak about the subsequent shock to pre-industrial conditions. Did you really say 1.5 degrees? Wow, that is quite a bit. Seems to me they must have used Levitus ocean data with an atmospheric restart file, then hit it with the solar/GHG changes. It seems rather large of a drop to come from a fully coupled stage. 1.5 degrees is about 30% too large to be exclusively from the atmospheric composition and solar irradiance, thus my suspicion regarding levitus. Now it would be important to know what happend because some people are using the run as a possible real-world scenario (although Hans in talks does not claim so). Caspar PS Now, bare in mind that the Science paper applies to the reconstruction, and for the general discussion the influence of spinup should not make that big of a difference (other than inflating the difference of the coldest period to the calibration period, which creates some issues discussed by Mike previously). Michael E. Mann wrote: > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > Subject: > Storch drift > From: > Stefan Rahmstorf > Date: > Thu, 11 Aug 2005 15:37:27 +0200 > To: > mann@psu.edu > > To: > mann@psu.edu > CC: > Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa > , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > > > Hi Mike, > > here is some interesting new info on the drift problem in the VS04 > runs. Irina Fast and Gerd Bürger submitted a comment about this to > Science some months ago; it was rejected and they did not pursue it. > I'm trying to encourage them to resubmit this elsewhere. I do not have > the ms. but have seen several graphs. There are two key points. > > 1. The ECHO-G run started at year 900, the VS04 paper of course shows > only results starting from year 1000. I've seen the full run now. > Between 900 and 1000, the NH temperature drops by about 1.5 ºC! That's > how severe their initialisation problem is. From my experience of how > the THC responds after such step-function changes in forcing, the > strong warming from 1050-1150 in VS04 could well be a rebound effect > from the 1.5 ºC cooling that precedes it, since the THC tends to > oscillate on such a time scale when forced rapidly. > > 2. Irina has run ECHO-G initialised with modern climate and then > switching to pre-industrial conditions similar to the run shown by > VS04, but without any further variability in the forcing. Thus, this > shows the pure drift from initialising this run - this is what Tim has > been estimating in MAGICC. The actual drift in ECHO-G is even larger > and more persistent than what Tim found: there is a cooling between > the years 1000 and 2000 of over 0.6 ºC, and this is an almost linear > trend over the whole time. I.e., not just drifting during the first > few centuries, but over the entire 1000-year period. > > Cheers, Stefan > -- Caspar M. Ammann National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80307-3000 email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 5299. 2005-08-12 11:21:20 ______________________________________________________ cc: Stefan Rahmstorf , mann@psu.edu, Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn , Phil Jones date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 11:21:20 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: [Fwd: Storch drift] to: Caspar Ammann Hi Caspar, Thanks for the comments. Frankly, Von storch is being duplicitous here. He may tell certain audiences (like the NCAR group last month) that he is not suggesting that the GKSS simulation is reealistic, because he knows he'll get skewered if he claims othewise. But then he turns around to the press, and talks about how the Moberg et al reconstruction matches their model, etc. I frankly consider this dishonest, at best! If what Stefan says is true (that the entire long-term trend, including the cold LIA in the model, is all due to the spinup problem), then it completely invalidates the use of that model for testing statistical reconstruction methodologies which require physically-consistent patterns of variance in the calibration period to reconstruct the past. But that's a separate issue. As we now know, the far more damning fact is that Von Storch et al knowingly applied a procedure which is not the MBH98 procedure, and they think they can get away w/ admitting this now in some obscure Italian journal which isn't even in the ISI database. Tim/Phil/Keith: you may not know about the latter, but Caspar should be able to fill you in on this shortly... Meanwhile, lets enjoy the media fiesta on MSU... Mike Caspar Ammann wrote: > Stefan, > > this is very important news indeed. The runs will get a huge hit from > this. The only way a coupled model can get a continued trend (without > invoking an energy leak somewhere) is when there is a terrible > deep-ocean spin up available even for their present day > initialization, not to speak about the subsequent shock to > pre-industrial conditions. Did you really say 1.5 degrees? Wow, that > is quite a bit. Seems to me they must have used Levitus ocean data > with an atmospheric restart file, then hit it with the solar/GHG > changes. It seems rather large of a drop to come from a fully coupled > stage. 1.5 degrees is about 30% too large to be exclusively from the > atmospheric composition and solar irradiance, thus my suspicion > regarding levitus. Now it would be important to know what happend > because some people are using the run as a possible real-world > scenario (although Hans in talks does not claim so). > > Caspar > > PS Now, bare in mind that the Science paper applies to the > reconstruction, and for the general discussion the influence of spinup > should not make that big of a difference (other than inflating the > difference of the coldest period to the calibration period, which > creates some issues discussed by Mike previously). > > > > Michael E. Mann wrote: > >> >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> >> Subject: >> Storch drift >> From: >> Stefan Rahmstorf >> Date: >> Thu, 11 Aug 2005 15:37:27 +0200 >> To: >> mann@psu.edu >> >> To: >> mann@psu.edu >> CC: >> Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa >> , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >> >> >> Hi Mike, >> >> here is some interesting new info on the drift problem in the VS04 >> runs. Irina Fast and Gerd Bürger submitted a comment about this to >> Science some months ago; it was rejected and they did not pursue it. >> I'm trying to encourage them to resubmit this elsewhere. I do not >> have the ms. but have seen several graphs. There are two key points. >> >> 1. The ECHO-G run started at year 900, the VS04 paper of course shows >> only results starting from year 1000. I've seen the full run now. >> Between 900 and 1000, the NH temperature drops by about 1.5 ºC! >> That's how severe their initialisation problem is. From my experience >> of how the THC responds after such step-function changes in forcing, >> the strong warming from 1050-1150 in VS04 could well be a rebound >> effect from the 1.5 ºC cooling that precedes it, since the THC tends >> to oscillate on such a time scale when forced rapidly. >> >> 2. Irina has run ECHO-G initialised with modern climate and then >> switching to pre-industrial conditions similar to the run shown by >> VS04, but without any further variability in the forcing. Thus, this >> shows the pure drift from initialising this run - this is what Tim >> has been estimating in MAGICC. The actual drift in ECHO-G is even >> larger and more persistent than what Tim found: there is a cooling >> between the years 1000 and 2000 of over 0.6 ºC, and this is an almost >> linear trend over the whole time. I.e., not just drifting during the >> first few centuries, but over the entire 1000-year period. >> >> Cheers, Stefan >> > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4271. 2005-08-12 17:08:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Aug 12 17:08:42 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: [Fwd: Storch drift] to: mann@psu.edu OK. Keith is also away next week. He's already gone. He'll need to look more at all this before the next IPCC meeting in December. You should have seen some of the crap comments he got. Not yours, but some of the other authors on the paleo chapter. People who you think ought to know better. Most relating to MM. All mostly ignored. You'll be able to register to get the draft by early Sept. Cheers Phil At 16:49 12/08/2005, you wrote: Thanks Phil, Can you tell Keith (confidentially) that Ammann and Wahl are submitting a comment to Science pointing out that von Storch knowingly did not apply the MBH98 procedure, and that all of the conclusions in that paper are wrong! There may be calls on Science to retract VS04, because the mistake undermines every single conclusion!! mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, We have the Italian paper Well Keith does for his AR4 work. Submission day for AR4 is today by the way. I think the Italian journal is the one from a conf I went to 3 weeks after the Berne meeting. I didn't bother sending anything to the Italian meeting either, just like Berne. The journal the Italians were planning did look obscure when I was there, but I didn't write anything down, as I had no intention of sending anything. Yes the MSU stuff is out. There will be something in Nature next week on it. Off next week as a break from IPCC. Cheers Phil At 16:21 12/08/2005, you wrote: Hi Caspar, Thanks for the comments. Frankly, Von storch is being duplicitous here. He may tell certain audiences (like the NCAR group last month) that he is not suggesting that the GKSS simulation is reealistic, because he knows he'll get skewered if he claims othewise. But then he turns around to the press, and talks about how the Moberg et al reconstruction matches their model, etc. I frankly consider this dishonest, at best! If what Stefan says is true (that the entire long-term trend, including the cold LIA in the model, is all due to the spinup problem), then it completely invalidates the use of that model for testing statistical reconstruction methodologies which require physically-consistent patterns of variance in the calibration period to reconstruct the past. But that's a separate issue. As we now know, the far more damning fact is that Von Storch et al knowingly applied a procedure which is not the MBH98 procedure, and they think they can get away w/ admitting this now in some obscure Italian journal which isn't even in the ISI database. Tim/Phil/Keith: you may not know about the latter, but Caspar should be able to fill you in on this shortly... Meanwhile, lets enjoy the media fiesta on MSU... Mike Caspar Ammann wrote: Stefan, this is very important news indeed. The runs will get a huge hit from this. The only way a coupled model can get a continued trend (without invoking an energy leak somewhere) is when there is a terrible deep-ocean spin up available even for their present day initialization, not to speak about the subsequent shock to pre-industrial conditions. Did you really say 1.5 degrees? Wow, that is quite a bit. Seems to me they must have used Levitus ocean data with an atmospheric restart file, then hit it with the solar/GHG changes. It seems rather large of a drop to come from a fully coupled stage. 1.5 degrees is about 30% too large to be exclusively from the atmospheric composition and solar irradiance, thus my suspicion regarding levitus. Now it would be important to know what happend because some people are using the run as a possible real-world scenario (although Hans in talks does not claim so). Caspar PS Now, bare in mind that the Science paper applies to the reconstruction, and for the general discussion the influence of spinup should not make that big of a difference (other than inflating the difference of the coldest period to the calibration period, which creates some issues discussed by Mike previously). Michael E. Mann wrote: ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Subject: Storch drift From: Stefan Rahmstorf Date: Thu, 11 Aug 2005 15:37:27 +0200 To: mann@psu.edu To: mann@psu.edu CC: Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hi Mike, here is some interesting new info on the drift problem in the VS04 runs. Irina Fast and Gerd Bürger submitted a comment about this to Science some months ago; it was rejected and they did not pursue it. I'm trying to encourage them to resubmit this elsewhere. I do not have the ms. but have seen several graphs. There are two key points. 1. The ECHO-G run started at year 900, the VS04 paper of course shows only results starting from year 1000. I've seen the full run now. Between 900 and 1000, the NH temperature drops by about 1.5 ºC! That's how severe their initialisation problem is. From my experience of how the THC responds after such step-function changes in forcing, the strong warming from 1050-1150 in VS04 could well be a rebound effect from the 1.5 ºC cooling that precedes it, since the THC tends to oscillate on such a time scale when forced rapidly. 2. Irina has run ECHO-G initialised with modern climate and then switching to pre-industrial conditions similar to the run shown by VS04, but without any further variability in the forcing. Thus, this shows the pure drift from initialising this run - this is what Tim has been estimating in MAGICC. The actual drift in ECHO-G is even larger and more persistent than what Tim found: there is a cooling between the years 1000 and 2000 of over 0.6 ºC, and this is an almost linear trend over the whole time. I.e., not just drifting during the first few centuries, but over the entire 1000-year period. Cheers, Stefan -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1311. 2005-08-12 17:15:47 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 17:15:47 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: READ THIS !!!!! to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Keith, Might be Mike over-reacting, but worth keeping an eye on this over the next few months and talking to Caspar at some point. Cheers Phil >Date: Fri, 12 Aug 2005 11:49:53 -0400 >From: "Michael E. Mann" >Reply-To: mann@psu.edu >Organization: Dept. of Meteorology, Penn State University >User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 1.0.2 (Windows/20050317) >X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >To: Phil Jones >Subject: Re: [Fwd: Storch drift] >X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by f05n05.cac.psu.edu >id j7CFnuAp024508 >X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 >X-UEA-Spam-Level: / >X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO > >Thanks Phil, > >Can you tell Keith (confidentially) that Ammann and Wahl are submitting a >comment to Science pointing out that von Storch knowingly did not apply >the MBH98 procedure, and that all of the conclusions in that paper are >wrong! There may be calls on Science to retract VS04, because the mistake >undermines every single conclusion!! > >mike > >Phil Jones wrote: > > Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2308. 2005-08-22 16:22:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Aug 22 16:22:28 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Last week's events to: Ben Santer , wigley@ucar.edu Ben and Tom, Congratulations on the paper coming out on Aug 12. I did talk to Nature about the three papers. Last week seems to have been a good one to have had off. I did this because of the IPCC submission deadline of Aug 12. As you said Tom, there were some stupid messages going around. If only these people would try and write peer-review papers, provided they get proper reviews. The one from Sonia should be kept as it proves that E&E is not a proper journal. I almost missed the one with Pielke's resignation in. Is this going to make your CCSP task easier or harder? Presumably now you'll get all his comments to officially deal with. Maybe you'll be able to ignore them? Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4601. 2005-08-22 16:31:56 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Aug 22 16:31:56 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Things to: "Michael E. Mann" Mike, You might like this one for your files! Amazing how people can read the wrong thing into co-authorship! I seem to have chosen a good week to have been away after the IPCC deadline of Aug 12. My email was full of loads of these sorts of emails, from the skeptics. It also seems that Roger Pielke Sr has resigned from the CCSP report and even John Christy has asked to come off the skeptic email list - along with several others. Roger said the NYT article was the last straw. Congratulations on the upcoming December event ! I can't make the AGU either, but my reason isn't so good! Don't forget to get Scott to send the data soon. Cheers Phil From: RichardSCourtney@aol.com Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2005 19:02:07 EDT Subject: Re: [Climate Sceptics] Validation of Santer et al, Part I: Formal Considerati... To: climatesceptics@yahoogroups.com, roy.spencer@msfc.nasa.gov, christy@nsstc.uah.edu, wigley@ucar.edu, jhansen@giss.nasa.gov, trenbert@ucar.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, chairipcc@teri.res.in, pielke@atmos.colostate.edu, Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov, mears@remss.com, celestej@atmos.washington.edu, dian.seidel@noaa.gov, Steven.Sherwood@yale.edu, ahilleas@gmail.com, weaver@ocean.seos.uvic.ca, giese@sweeney.tamu.edu, b.a.wielicki@larc.nasa.gov, chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk, schoenwiese@meteor.uni-frankfurt.de, david.easterling@noaa.gov, legates@udel.edu, cgfi@rica.net, dshindell@giss.nasa.gov, ekalnay@atmos.umd.edu, joos@climate.unibe.ch, francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca, hegerl@acpub.duke.edu, meehl@ncar.ucar.edu, g.gerlich@tu-braunschweig.de, gerrit.lohmann@dkrz.de, marlandgh@ornl.gov, john.f.mitchell@metoffice.gov.uk, kcaldeira@globalecology.stanford.edu, martin.wild@env.ethz.ch, schlesin@atmos.uiuc.edu, robert.balling@asu.edu, russell.vose@noaa.gov, shs@leland.stanford.edu, ssolomon@al.noaa.gov, tadand@atmos.washington.edu, cubasch@zedat.fu-berlin.de, arking@jhu.edu, lubushin@mtu-net.ru, cfk@lanl.gov, daniel.rosenfeld@huji.ac.il, douglass@pas.rochester.edu, dhoyt@toast.net, shuara@fullzero.com.ar, yfq@asrc.cestm.albany.edu, francis.massen@education.lu, gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov, taylor@coas.oregonstate.edu, gerd-rainer.weber@gvst.de, Hartwig.Volz@rwe.com, jahlbeck@abo.fi, kondratyev@KK10221.spb.edu, klyashtorin@mtu-net.ru, mmaccrac@comcast.net, peter@physchem.kth.se, rabryson@facstaff.wisc.edu, lindzen@wind.mit.edu, rsk@pas.rochester.edu, singer@sepp.org, baliunas@cfa.harvard.edu, tpatters@ccs.carleton.ca, climate@iinet.net.au, wibjorn.karlen@kultgeog.uu.se, wsoon@cfa.harvard.edu, vinmary.gray@paradise.net.nz, Peter.Thorne@metoffice.gov.uk, gleckler1@llnl.gov, qfu@atmos.washington.edu, rruedy@giss.nasa.gov CC: anrevk@nytimes.com, antonio.regalado@wsj.com, dddusmma@comcast.net, georgewill@washpost.com, nschulz@techcentralstation.com, nc@windstream.demon.co.uk, Karl.Ziemelis@nature.com, lgunter@shaw.ca, P.Campbell@nature.com, kennedyd@stanford.edu X-Mailer: 9.0 SE for Windows sub 631 X-Spam-Flag: NO X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.7 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Dear Timo: You report that Ben Santer has said the first draft of the paper by Santer et al. was circulated to a limited distribution of potential co-authors about 3-4 weeks before the final version was submitted for publication (see below). Whatever the truth of that and whatever the reason was in this case, the usual reasons for seeking coauthors after the work is done should be noted. The seeking of additional coauthors prior to publication is always an indication that the originators of the paper doubt its worth: why else would they 'share the credit'? And the usual reason for this deplorable practice is to subvert the peer review process. When many (often prominent) coauthors are gathered then it becomes difficult to find reviewers who will be unconnected with any of the coauthors. And few peer reviewers wish to take the risk of suggesting rejection of a paper that is coauthored by colleagues (who may find out). Hence, a large number of coauthors can be taken as a warning that the providers of a paper have doubts concerning the quality of the paper. Indeed, as a generalisation, the quality of a research paper is usually inversely related to the number of its coauthors. Some journals have been attempting to reduce the seeking of additional coauthors by trying to limit the number of authors. But, sadly, this corruption has become so endemic in climate science that the journals often fail (as a scan through recent editions of Nature and Science demonstrates). All the best Richard In a message dated 18/08/2005 18:05:04 GMT Standard Time, timo.hameranta@pp.inet.fi writes: Now, it was some kind of a news to me when Ben Santer Aug 11 explained: "The first draft of the Santer et al. paper was circulated to a limited distribution of potential co-authors on April 20th, 2005." The paper was then revisited with Carl Mears and Frank Wentz April 26 - May 13. As far as I can see, this circulation of the draft April 20th, 2005 means that any actual field research or replication of the results or a proper review by the potential co-authors, besides Carl Mears and Frank Wentz, and any mutual communication about possible discrepancies between all the authors were practically impossible when the paper was submitted to Science May 13, 2005. It seems evident that those other co-authors could have had only certain additions and corrections to the text, if any. These invited co-authors have done at best the job which normally belongs to the acknowledged colleagues, and after submission to editors and peer-reviewers. Those invited co-authors should rather be called co-signers only. I do admit that the line between actual research workers and commentators is sometimes flickering, but in this case not. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2366. 2005-08-22 16:59:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: m.haylock@uea.ac.uk, mark.new@ouce.ox.ac.uk date: Mon Aug 22 16:59:40 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Russian daily precipitation data to: Lisette Klok , Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl Albert and Lisette, Malcolm forwarded me the maps. The coverage is looking very good. Seeing all the stations over Russia and fUSSR got me thinking about another series of emails that came last week when I was away. In EMULATE we've noticed a lot of problems with the long-term homogeneity of fUSSR precip data, before 1967. The two emails below are to Anders and Alex (of EMULATE) asking them to download this new corrected dataset from Pasha Groisman. This will be available from Sept 1 2005. I have got it earlier from Tom Peterson with download instructions. I would suggest that you also get this dataset for ENSEMBLES. We should be making use of these improvements to the database, despite the hassle of pairing off the stations across the fUSSR. I know these data are no longer as measured, but they have been modified by the best person (Groisman) whoshould know what he's doing. Cheers Phil PS to Albert - I suspect this affects our ..stans from the Pune meeting, but let's ignore that. There wasn't too much happening on the large scale for precip. Anders, Alex, With these instructions and ftp site you should be able to get the daily Russian precip data. Can one of you download this lot as David is aware here this week and next? I suspect you will get many more stations than we will need, but hopefully you will be able to replace all the precip data for our sites in Russia. If there are any problems or issues get back to Tom directly and cc to me. The data has also gone to Lisa and Xuebin Zhang, so we have gained about 10 days getting it earlier. One final thing, I suspect this problem with Russian precip applies to all the other fUSSR stations as well. David saw problems with Kiev in some examples the week before last. So check all these as well. Cheers Phil Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2005 08:52:37 -0400 From: "Thomas C Peterson" User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 1.0.6 (Windows/20050716) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Phil Jones Subject: Re: Russian daily precipitation data X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Dear Phil, I talked to Pasha about his data Friday. From what I can gather, Pasha homogeneity adjusted Russian precip several years ago in collaboration with a colleague back in Russia. These had adjustments to account for the installation of the windshield in the 1950s, the change in how they handled wetting (the liquid remaining in the gauge after puring it into the measuring devise) and the impact of changing the number of observations per day in the 1980s on the wetting adjustment. The windshield adjustment was just a factor applied to all stations for all observations. These are the data I've recommended we use in the Lisa et al. extremes paper. I reformatted them based on the flags & using the output from one of Pasha's directories Friday. I put them on our ftp site and sent Lisa & Xuebin the following message: I've reformatted the files to simple YYYY MM DD mm. The units are millimeters. The precision is 10ths of mm. However, when the precip was listed as 0 but it had the trace flag, I made the precip 0.01 mm. Missing is -99.90. You should be able to get the file via our ftp: [1]ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/download/ussr.adj.dly.Z I tarred the file and then compressed it when I saw how big it was. So first uncompress then untar (tar -xf). These were done on our lynux workstations. Pasha's data set that he is making available the end of the month has raw data, this version, and then an "unbiased" version. So the proper reference to these data would be in Pasha's new data set. All I'm doing is giving you a week jump on the data this part is available. ---- I should note that the inventory file I included had more stations than the number with daily data that I included in the tar file. I also was a little rushed Friday, so please let me know if anything is amiss with the data. Now, regarding Pasha's new data set. He says that will be available the end of the month. He doesn't want anyone to have access to it yet as he is double checking things. He also seems to be somewhat concerned about the reception it will have, or so I gathered, as he told me the story: "How do you recognize the first pioneers? By the arrows in their backs." This dataset is "unbiased". That means he and a different Russian colleague adjusted the data to be equivalent to what actually fell (e.g., accounting for wind induced under catch). The windshield adjustments are based on the actual wind speed during the storm events. Temperature and humidity are used as well. In blizzard conditions, the catch is lowered to account for blowing surface snow getting in the gauge. Lower than blizzard wind speed generally has the catch increased. Trace precip varies due to some formula but I saw values where trace was turned into 2 mm or 4 mm or (if memory serves) 0 mm. If adequate wind data was not present, the value of the valid precip measurement was set to missing. The data include daily and sub-daily amounts. This dataset may be a giant leap forward in some ways, but I personally would like to see the some analyses from it (which I often think of as post-production quality assurance testing) before I jumped into using it. Knowing Pasha, I expect those studies will be published fairly quickly. If you have any questions, please let me know. Regards, Tom Phil Jones wrote: Tom, Is it possible that you might help us get this daily Russian precipitation dataset any sooner? It will be called td-9813. The EMULATE project will run until the end of the year and we would be keen to get it sooner rather than later. Cheers Phil Hi Anders, Thanks for all the info. I have asked Tom Peterson to get a copy of the corrected dataset (he is co-author with me on a global extremes paper that has just been accepted in JGR). We access a couple of different sources for Russian data and do our own qc and homogeneity tests on the data so I hope that this new information will only have a minimal impact but it is important to know about it. It would have been nice to know about this sooner (Tom sits only a few desks away from Pasha) but I can understand that sometimes internal communication is harder than external communication! Cheers. Lisa. -----Original Message----- From: Anders Moberg [[2]mailto:anders@misu.su.se] Sent: Wednesday, 17 August 2005 8:01 PM To: Lisa Alexander Subject: Fwd: Re: Russian precipitation data Lisa, Here is a copy of the mail I got from Pasha Groisman (I did not send out a copy of this to EMULATE, but I thought you could be interested in reading his answer directly). This is the last message in this little series Cheers, Anders Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2005 08:34:21 -0400 From: "Pasha Groisman" [3] User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird 1.0.6 (Windows/20050716) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Anders Moberg [4] Subject: Re: Russian precipitation data X-Virus-Scanned: by amavisd-new at av-in.su.se Dear Anders: The description of this archive is attached. NCDC service should be able to assist you to get the data set. We have prepared a new data set (td-9813) that will be publicly available very soon (its description, a short version is also attached).. . How to Order Data: The data are distributed free of charge for use with a non-commercial purposes according to regulations outlined in WMO resolution 40. Contact NCDC's Climate Services about costs of copying of the off-line version of this dataset. Phone 828 271-4800 Fax 828-271-4876 e-mail [5]NCDC.Orders@noaa.gov 7. Archiving Data Center: Name: National Climatic Data Center/NCDC Address: Federal Building 151 Patton Ave. Asheville, NC 28801 5001 Phone: 828-271-4800 Fax 828-271-4876 e-mail [6]NCDC.Orders@noaa.gov Pasha Anders Moberg wrote: Dear Pasha, I am writing concerning long daily Russian (fUSSR) precipitation series, which you have written extensively about. I am a meteorologist at Stockholm University. Currently, I am involved in an EU-project called EMULATE which is coordinated by Phil Jones (CRU, Univ. East Anglia, UK). One component in EMULATE is to build a database with daily temperature and precipitation series for as many European sites as possible with data starting 1900 or earlier. We collect data from various sources, both through personal contacts, through digitization of original data within the project, and by using publicly available data. For the fUSSR region, our main data source has been the 223 station series in the NDP-040 dataset by Razuvaev et al. 1993, with subsequent updates obtained by Lisa Alexander at the Hadley Center (HC is also in EMULATE). We are aware of the various homogeneity problems with the precip data (relating to the corrections K1 and K3 etc.) that you have discussed in the literature. Is it possible to get access to your corrected version of the daily precip series? In your paper with Esfir Rankova in IJC (2001, vol. 21, p. 657-678) you mention that data are "available from the NCDC website for the 1891-1999 period (TD-3720)". I can, however, not find these data on the website. Could you help me/us to somehow get access to the data? Using homogenized Russian series instead of the original data would of course be a great improvement to our database. Hope you can help us in some way, If you are interested in more details about EMULATE, there are some on [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/projects/emulate/ With kindest regards, Anders Moberg ------------------------------------------------------ Anders Moberg Associate Professor (Docent) Department of Meteorology Stockholm University SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden phone: +46 8 16 4349 fax. +46 8 15 7185 [8]anders@misu.su.se [9]http://www.misu.su.se/ -- Pavel Ya. Groisman, Ph.D. UCAR Project Scientist at NCDC National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, USA Ph. +1 (828) 271-4347; Fax: +1 (828) 271-4328 Office e-mail: [10]Pasha.Groisman@noaa.gov Home e-mail: [11]Pasha.Groisman@direcpc.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [12]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D. Climate Analysis Branch National Climatic Data Center 151 Patton Avenue Asheville, NC 28801 Voice: +1-828-271-4287 Fax: +1-828-271-4328 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4745. 2005-08-25 08:34:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 25 08:34:33 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Fwd: RE: CCSP Report to: Kevin Trenberth Kevin, Seems the best and the only solution. There will still be a month (October) for reviewers of our chapter to get the latest CCSP draft. Maybe over a beer or two in Christchurch with Tom, he'll be able to give us a brief summary of all the legal issues! With the NZ dates, it is likely that Tom might have to be in constant contact with the CCSP people and some at NCDC. I hope he still manages to come to Christchurch. I'll email Albert to collect some information on the current European floods, so we can add a sentence or two to the floods box. The Portuguese fires seem more for WGII, but I'll update the summer temp series for C. Europe in early October. It's still been very hot in the western Med. Since early July we've had a constant stream of depressions coming across Britain from the NW with the later track towards the Alps and northern Balkans. Another is on its way - it passed here yesterday, with a near record low pressure over northern Scotland (for August). Cheers Phil At 17:36 24/08/2005, you wrote: Martin Yes that's about as good as can be done. Of course, given this situation we will be unaware of what changes have been made and what the CCSP report says. The fact that Tom is a review editor of our chapter makes me wonder if our report may not influence theirs more than theirs influencing us? Tom has access to our draft already. Clearly this is one area where we will have work to do in Christchurch. Kevin Martin Manning wrote: Hi Kevin I hope my message and proposal below to Richard is OK from your perspective as I believe it is compatible with what you expected. Regards Martin Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2351. 2005-08-25 09:51:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Aug 25 09:51:50 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: MACE proposal to: "Klein Tank, Albert" , "Rob Allan" , "Craig Donlon" , "Chris Folland" , "Ag Stephens" Dear All, I've been through the latest versions, and added in a few comments. I've also added in a recipient section to each WP. There is a lot of talk about deliverables and who should get them. I thought it would useful to spell this out for each WP. Obviously this is just a start. As for Albert's points: 1. We probably need to begin to contact the WP leaders once agreed. Text lengths are about right for those that are about half a page. 2. The focus should be on European extremes - the floods and fires now going on give this a greater sense of urgency. If we can add in something about these events before Nov 4 then that would be good. I'll have the summer temp averages from 1780 by the end of September. I feel we need something in on atmospheric chemistry 3. Suggest we define this by lat and long. EMULATE has a window 25-70N by 70W to 50E. We could reduce this to 30W to 50E. A better alternative would be to say we think globally, but the emphasis will be Europe (geographic), North Africa Turkey and the Near East. Defining a region with co-ordinates might mean we miss Svalbard, Iceland, Greenland - but we don't want to define it by members and accession states. 4. I've tried emphasize that ground-base data and truth are essential for all satellite and remote-sensed datasets. The example of the MSU mess and all the recalibrations highlight that satellite data cannot be used without any chekcks. 5. OK 6. I'd like to include some of this. Not that we will be able to afford much, but we will know what to do with datasets when others develop them. 7. Agreed. 8. Suggest that IPCC could go into some of the recipient lists. IPCC uses the scientific literature so that needs to be there for almost all WPs. Cheers Phil At 14:08 23/08/2005, Klein Tank, Albert wrote: Dear Rob, Craig, Phil, Chris and Ag, Attached is an update of the MACE proposal. All comments received so far have been implemented. The new version also contains a suggestion for WP breakdown with names attached. I have removed the old placeholder figures, because they clearly led to misunderstanding. The idea is to use this version of the document (after including your comments) to contact potential partners asking for feedback and input (Rob; good to know that Inge and Juerg are keen to be involved). The highlighted sentences and sections (track changes) relate to parts of the text which still need some discussion. In particular, the topics below require your attention: 1) the breakdown in WP's and the suggested names, in particular for the WP-leaders. 2) a good and focussed objective and scientific question that MACE adresses (please comment on my text suggestions). 3) the spatial domain of MACE, which is rather vague now; do we need to focus more clearly on Europe? 4) the fact that MACE includes only limited work on developing integrated products from satellites and ground based observations; we focus on the ground based segment to make that ready for use in integrated products. 5) the fact that we will go back to the early part of the 20th century. 6) historical data rescue and archaeology are largely outside the scope of MACE 7) the example which will be used to illustrate the project's impact is the European summer of 2003; or should we also include the summer flooding in 2002 and extreme summer of 2005? 8) the bullet section describing MACE's input to IPCC has been deleted (it seems rather weak and strange; Rob did you find out what the source is?). Cheers, Albert. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2480. 2005-08-26 09:06:30 ______________________________________________________ cc: Rob Allan , Chris Folland , Craig Donlon , Ag Stephens date: Fri Aug 26 09:06:30 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: FW: Ideas for a European monitoring project to: "Allan, Rob" , "Klein Tank, Albert" Albert, Rob, A few additional thoughts. Getting DWD involved is good, but we will need to be careful with numbers. I'll leave Rob to liaise on DARC and you with DLR and the atmospheric chemistry issue. Over the next week or two we will likely need to work on the WP descriptions a little more. I realise this is what you suggested, but I'm just confirming that. As for the comments Chris sent yesterday. I agree we need more substance on a number of the science issues. Here, we need to focus on what MACE could have provided (if up and running) during the 2003 summer or during the current summer - in the way of co-ordination and products. Limited space is a problem within the 15 pages. Linking to ENSEMBLES is important. I see this more through the data side than the RCM aspects. ERA-70 is the way forward in the long-term, but Adrian says this won't be till 2009 at the earliest. This is good for us, as it gives MACE some chance of influencing the input to it from Europe at least. ENSEMBLES is developing the high-res daily datasets (for Tx, Tn and Precip) for two main reasons, 1) for RCM evaluation and 2) for looking at extremes across the continent. They will be exceedingly useful validation tool for ERA-70, but this is long-term. Maybe MACE should be proposing to pick up these high-res data from ENSEMBLES and work towards getting them into an operational status. This will be vital to much of the CIB work and the CLTs will help in breaking down barriers to this. In the long-run, this operational aspect with the high-res grids evolving into being produced by an on-line ERA-70. ENSEMBLES will look through WP5.4 into the feasibility of this with ERA-40 from 1979 onwards. To get the lengths of useful records though we will need the ENSEMBLES high-res grids and basic station data for assessments back to 1950 and earlier in some parts of Europe. The process and the lessons learned in doing this for these three variables (and the derived ones, of Tmean and DTR) will then provide guidance as to how the other surface ECVs can be gradually added ( pressure will likely be the easiest of these, but there is vapour pressure, wind speed/direction and surface rad budgets as well). This will gradually test to the limit the capability of ERA-70 and ERA-40 to get these additional ECVs. So, in summary, I'm suggesting we concentrate links to ENSEMBLES on the obs data side and just link very loosely to RCM work. Similarly, any D&A work should be for others to follow up, but using MACE and ENSEMBLES products. The attached is a workshop summary put together by Lennart Bengtsson and many others that will appear in BAMS. This might provide some background. Many were involved in this (Chris and me in tis email list). Cheers Phil At 15:25 25/08/2005, Allan, Rob wrote: On Thu, 2005-08-25 at 15:13, Klein Tank, Albert wrote: > Rob et al., > > I agree with many of the points you discussed at your meeting this morning. But before bringing in DARC it would be good to have a response of ECMWF because of their GEMS project which is handling atmospheric chemistry data assimilation in particular. Did you get a response from Adrian Simmonds already? Also, I am a bit hesitant to bring in too many UK partners. There are some other potential partners very active in this area, such as DLR (my KNMI chemistry colleagues are still considering whether or not to participate in the chemistry part given their involvement in GEOMON). > > With respect to being "complementary to satellite data" I have been in contact with Bruno Rudolf and Martin Wersheck of DWD (see below). It would be interesting to have DWD not only for their GPCC but also to make the connection to the Climate Monitoring SAF work. Agree? > > Albert. > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Werscheck Martin [[1]mailto:Martin.Werscheck@dwd.de] > Sent: Thursday, August 25, 2005 3:05 PM > To: Klein Tank, Albert > Cc: Gratzki Annegret; Schulz Jörg; Hechler Peer > Subject: AW: Ideas for a European monitoring project > > > Dear Albert, > > thats really fast. Thank you for the draft proposal... we will discuss within CM-SAF. Next week we all will be veeeery busy with our 2nd User & Training Workshop that we organise in Nuremberg (3 days). Immediately following we have sort of "high level" meeting with GCOS (Goodrich, Manton), WMO (Hinsman, Duchossis), climate experts (Trenberth, Rossow et. al.), satellite operators (EUMETSAT,Russia) etc. pp., titled "contribution of the SAF Network to Global Climate Monitoring". This meeting will be followed by two weeks occupied with RAVI meeting in Heidelberg. So, it might take a couple of days until I can give a more detailed feedback. > > > Thanks again for considering our participation. > > kind regards > > martin > > -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- > Von: Klein Tank, Albert [[2]mailto:Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl] > Gesendet am: Donnerstag, 25. August 2005 14:30 > An: Rudolf Bruno > Cc: Hechler Peer; Werscheck Martin; Beck Christoph; Grieser Jürgen > Betreff: RE: Ideas for a European monitoring project > > Dear Bruno, Martin, et al. > > Thanks for your quick responses. Addressing the new EU FP6 call, I would like to make a connection from ground-based monitoring to satellite monitoring without actually including much on satellite products. The latter is already taken care of in CM-SAF. We would like CM-SAF to be represented to ensure that our project is complementary. That is also why I sent my first email to Martin (after reading your comprehensive "Klimastatusbericht 2004"). > > Other DWD contributions are also welcome. To give more details of what we aim for, I attach a very first draft proposal. So far, it has been discussed only between Rob Allan and Chris Folland of the UK Met Office, Phil Jones of CRU and me. Therefore, please note that partners and in particular names are very preliminary. > > Looking forward to your comments. > > Albert. > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Rudolf Bruno [[3]mailto:Bruno.Rudolf@dwd.de] > Sent: Thursday, August 25, 2005 12:47 PM > To: Klein Tank, Albert > Cc: Hechler Peer; Werscheck Martin; Beck Christoph; Grieser Jürgen > Subject: AW: Ideas for a European monitoring project > > Dear Albert, > > The title of the project sounds interesting. The GPCC is planning to comlement the global view by a stronger focus on Europe. > > Currently we are in the final phase of a successful project (VASClimO funded by the German Government 2001 - mid 2006). The extremes have been a side aspect of this project, however, the main focus was/is the analysis of monthly precip for trends. Juergen Grieser and Christoph Beck are the research scientists of VASClimO. Find more info on our Website. > > I asked both, if there would be interested in MACE and be willing to prepare a proposal or a sketch of it at least. > > Please let us know, if you are interested in participation of DWD/GPCC? > > Best regards, Bruno > > > -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- > Von: Werscheck Martin > Gesendet am: Donnerstag, 25. August 2005 12:30 > An: 'Klein Tank, Albert' > Cc: Rudolf Bruno; Hechler Peer > Betreff: AW: Ideas for a European monitoring project > > Dear Albert, > > thanks for inviting to contribute to FP6 Project Proposal "MACE". Sounds really interesting! As the focus is on ground based observations, I wonder how we could fit in with climate relevant data/products derived from satellite input. So, do you see any chance to include satellite activities? > Can you provide more information, esp. on that topic? > > Within the Climate SAF we are about to draft the proposal for the next phase > (2007 - 2012), and this takes quite some resources to do. For this reason and the still ongoing discussion about the future foci of DWD activities it is quite hard to tell about the chances to join any bigger projects. I expect to have a more clear view by end of this year. What is the schedule for MACE ? > > I hope it is o.k. with you that I forwarded your email to Bruno Rudolf. He might be a candidate for MACE, too. > > For the time being I cross fingers for a successful application for this ambitious project (trying to keep the numbers of partners below 30). > > Best regards to Aryan, > > cheers > martin > > -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht----- > Von: Klein Tank, Albert [[4]mailto:Albert.Klein.Tank@knmi.nl] > Gesendet am: Dienstag, 23. August 2005 16:28 > An: Martin Werscheck > Betreff: Ideas for a European monitoring project > > Dear Martin, > > The reason that I am contacting you is to ask if you are interested to contribute to a new European FP6 Integrated Project that I intend to propose. It is called "MACE: Monitoring and Assessment of Climate Extremes". > The proposal is based on earlier work by Rob Allan of the UK Met Office under the acronym AESOP (in which your colleague Bruno Rudolf was one of the partners). > > Responding to the 4th call of the European Commission, the new project aims to extend the European capacity in a cost effective manner for the systematic monitoring of climate variability and change in support of GCOS, GEOSS, and the European Union Strategy for Sustainable Development and the Environmental Action Plan for the European Union. The focus is on ground-based observations (complementary to satellite measurements). > > Before sending you more details, I would be pleased to know if you are interested to participate in such a project. I also welcome your ideas on what DWD's contribution could be given your role in the CM-SAF. For your information, the indicated maximum budget we aim for is 7 million euros. > This means that the project is rather ambitious, although we're trying to keep the number of partners under 30, with a distinct scientific focus. > > Looking forward to hear from you! > > Best regards, > > Albert. > > ********************* > Albert Klein Tank > KNMI, the Netherlands > ********************* Albert, Thanks for that. My first go at sending something to Adrian Simmons failed as he couldn't read the attachment - I seem to remember him having similar problems with AESOP. I'm trying again now. Please do explore the chemistry bit with your DLR people and we'll see what comes of it first before doing anything about others such as DARC. Yes, I fully agree about DWD. Cheers, Rob. -- Dr Rob Allan, Climate Scientist, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UNITED KINGDOM. Phone: +44 1392 886 904 (W) Phone: +44 1837 659 177 (H) E-mail: rob.allan@metoffice.gov.uk (W) E-mail: rallan@onetel.com (H) Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4907. 2005-08-26 10:52:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: Heinz Wanner , Christoph Kull , Keith Briffa , "Michael E. Mann" , Thorsten Kiefer date: Fri, 26 Aug 2005 10:52:32 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: Phil Jones Dear Phil et al, I agree on Mike Evans. I'm afraid I don't agree on Zorita. He has engaged in some very nasty, and in my opinion unprofessional email exchanges with some close colleagues of mine who have established some fundamental undisclosed errors in work he co-published with von Storch. Given this, I don't believe he can be involved in constructive dialogue of the sort we're looking for at this workshop. There are some similarly problematic issues w/ Cubasch, who like von Storch, who has engaged in inflammatory and ad hominem public commentary. There is no room for that on any side of the debate. If the Germans need to be represented here, I would suggest instead someone from the Potsdam group, such as Eva Bauer, who has been doing some very interesting work on modelling the climate of the past 2K, mike Phil Jones wrote: Christoph, I have checked with IPCC and their 4th meeting is in the June 26-30 week in Bergen.. As for Heinz's suggestions - Mike Evans would be OK - I'm nor sure that Mikami would contribute much See Keith's comment on Zorita Cheers Phil At 14:39 26/08/2005, Heinz Wanner wrote: Dear Christoph, I have only a few additional comments concerning the planned workshop. First of all, I support this concept. Related to the topics, I heavily support to organize a discussion about how we can reconstruct different paremeters independently. It is important to try to reconstruct air pressure as a basic circulation parameter - if possible. Concerning the participants: - Write GooSSe; - Mikami from Japan (Tokyo Metropolitan University) could be an interesting Asian participant; - You mentioned Kevin Trenberth or Mark Cane. Both are absolutely okay, but why not invite a younger colleague like Mike Evans from Tucson? - If Phil and Mike do not support von Storch it does not make sense to invite him (and Eduardo Zorita?); - For me Ulrich Cubasch is an interesting modeler with good ideas about paleomodeling. Maybe Gavin can comment this when he is back from his China trip? Cheers, Heinz ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- Dr. Heinz Wanner Prof., Director NCCR Climate ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- Office Institute: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 88 85 Phone +41 (0)31 631 31 60 Fax +41 (0)31 631 85 11 Fax +41 (0)31 631 43 38 [1]www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ [2]www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch [3]wanner@giub.unibe.ch ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [5]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [6]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 221. 2005-08-26 15:32:34 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Phil Jones" , "Michael E. Mann" , "Thorsten Kiefer" date: Fri Aug 26 15:32:34 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: "Heinz Wanner" , "Christoph Kull" Sorry to be slow Christoph I am really happy to endorse all of Heinz's comments (and by inference) , Mike's also. If it was necessary to have a participant from Hamburg , I would support Eduardo . best wishes Keith At 14:39 26/08/2005, Heinz Wanner wrote: Dear Christoph, I have only a few additional comments concerning the planned workshop. First of all, I support this concept. Related to the topics, I heavily support to organize a discussion about how we can reconstruct different paremeters independently. It is important to try to reconstruct air pressure as a basic circulation parameter - if possible. Concerning the participants: - Write GooSSe; - Mikami from Japan (Tokyo Metropolitan University) could be an interesting Asian participant; - You mentioned Kevin Trenberth or Mark Cane. Both are absolutely okay, but why not invite a younger colleague like Mike Evans from Tucson? - If Phil and Mike do not support von Storch it does not make sense to invite him (and Eduardo Zorita?); - For me Ulrich Cubasch is an interesting modeler with good ideas about paleomodeling. Maybe Gavin can comment this when he is back from his China trip? Cheers, Heinz ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- Dr. Heinz Wanner Prof., Director NCCR Climate ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- Office Institute: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 88 85 Phone +41 (0)31 631 31 60 Fax +41 (0)31 631 85 11 Fax +41 (0)31 631 43 38 [1]www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ [2]www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch [3]wanner@giub.unibe.ch ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [4]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 3349. 2005-08-30 11:25:59 ______________________________________________________ cc: i.harris@uea.ac.uk, "Tett, Simon" date: Tue Aug 30 11:25:59 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: sorry about this review to: "Brohan, Philip" , "Kennedy, John" Philip, I had a more detailed look at the comments over the long weekend. Here are a few thoughts. 1. If you want to know more about the structural uncertainty, that Tom P. is talking about, then talk to either Peter Thorne or David Parker. This term seems to have become widespread with the CCSP meetings on the lower tropospheric/surface temperatures differences. Basically, it is that errors don't include the effects of assumptions made in the dataset construction. So, when you get new or modified data, such as the revised SST data around WW2, the new data shouldn't change things more than the earlier error estimates - if these were correct. 2. It would seem that the error bars appear too small for SST. I said after the quick read, that I didn't think any more work is needed, but I think you are going to have to add two things. First, it will be necessary to produce HadCRUT3v a different way (the old HadCRUT2v way) of merging the land and marine components - just to show that it makes very little difference. Second, some comparison of the Smith and Reynolds dataset and its error bars will have to be included. The problem you'll find with SR, is that they have infilled data everywhere, so their long-term trends are smaller, because the infilling is mostly with near zero values, so the 1880-1920 period is warmer wrt 1961-90 than it should be. As for Tom's points His 4 is a good point. 6 will just need some additional words. This might need a sentence saying how few stations these less good means relate to. 7 is mostly secondary points that won't be that important. r-bar isn't calculated the way Tom thinks or maybe the paper implies. If you look back and re-read Jones et al. (1997) you'll see that r-bar is estimated from the earlier grid-box dataset. Probably just needs a few extra sentences. 8. Is a reasonable point, but this will likely make the error bars smaller? 9. I agree on this ! 10. If you compare with the old method merging this will show that this isn't that important. All that seems to be required is some more detailed explanation. The reason SST's appear better is that the autcorrelation from day-to-day and measurement- to-measurement is high (much higher than land). 11. A model could also be used to demonstrate this. Better than NCEP/NCAR. Minor Points A. My copy had these odd citations. There is an @ sign after each reference. Probably came about when making the pdf? B. WWR volumes for the 1991-2000 were not included. We've just received these last week. Haven't had time to add them in. Harry will likely do this but not till early next year, when we have some more funds for him. D. Good point E. More text needed, with a reference back. Maybe get David P to read through, if he hasn't already. F. We use anomalies G Good point. H. I thought I'd caught all these. I. This is a good point. It would be useful to say that there isn't a master dataset that we all draw from. We just use all we can get. This will answer N as well. I can write this. I have been in touch with Tom Peterson about this over the summer wrt Roger Pielke. J. Better explanation needed. K. These sd's differ though? P. Errors should be independent. Some rephrasing needed. Q. Agree that this needs to be clearer. S. More text needed. U. The recent periods are too short. May stations/countries haven't made the relevant simultaneous measurements. X will get answered in one of the main points. Z comparison of the different weighting schemes will show this doesn't have much effect. EE One of these is the average station variance. Hope these are of some use. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4979. 2005-09-01 11:51:47 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Sep 1 11:51:47 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Stating the obvious to: Kevin Trenberth , "David Easterling" Kevin, Dave, I sent an email to Albert and Roxana about recent extremes in Europe. They will be bringing some text to NZ. We will have to decide what to do about Katrina there as well. Situation looks very serious from here, but we'll need to distinguish the severity of the storm from the apparent unpreparedness, lack of maintenance of the levees etc. It was clearly a very large storm and the track couldn't have been much worse. I bet if there's another event this season, the exodus will be a much higher percentage. The Emmanuel and Webster et al. papers have been very timely, but once the rescue operations are over and the clean-up in earnest begins, the increasing destructiveness of such storms will again get back into the debate. The BBC site has a story about the eventual cost (guessed at 25B$). This might be more than the WTC on 9/11. Funds were diverted from levee improvement, to help finance the war and homeland security..... Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1240. 2005-09-02 10:21:40 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Sep 2 10:21:40 2005 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: current status of the draft to: Anders Moberg Anders, Let's try and do a 6th region, so when you send an email to David tell him about the changes to the Black Sea region and also the Greater Alpine region. I would suggest the latter should include only Swiss and Austrian stations, unless there are any in the very south of Germany. If it is clear to David what he has to do, then it shouldn't be too onerous. We are taking off the key station, so it should be simpler. cc me on the email and I'll talk this through with David on Monday. As you say, just the necessary plots for the paper are all we need. Also give David titles for the plots, he'll have to remove the focus on.. As for WP4, show some of the cluster plots to indictae the difficulties. We'll have a number of the cluster experts in the group, so we'll get some feedback. Alex could show these. Either during or just after the meting we'll need to decide what additional work will be most profitable. Not much has happened on D16, so raise that not just in WP4, but also when WP3 is discussed. Also one or two ppt on the data problems would also be useful. Cheers Phil At 06:49 02/09/2005, you wrote: Phil, About Figure 11-13 (regional time series): Up to now, David has identified five regions. Five is an odd number and this makes it difficult to set the page layout for the plots (see attached). Four or six would be better. I have thought about adding a Greater Alpine region (there are quite many stations there) and changing the Blacksean region to a more NE-wards located SW Russian region (with more stations than the Blacksean). This, however, would mean more job for David to look through the time series and find a suitable selection of stations. What is your opinion about the option with 6 regions? "Presumably you'll talk about many of these analyses during WP4, but hopefully more on what is planned beyond this paper." Well, at the moment I have not many concrete ideas about what to do in the four extra months. I will need to see what the other groups are doing, and then discuss with you and others when we meet in Paris. We need to make sure that we deliver all the deliverables, and this will determine what will be the best things to do. I remember well that you and I talked about doing cluster analysis to define regions and then analyse trends in different regions. The preliminary work that Alex made on this tells us that this can be difficult. We should discuss if the cluster analysis is a useful way to proceed, or if we (me) should go in another direction. I can show some of the clustering results from Alex (or I can ask him to do it). I have a feeling that work on D16 (anthropogenic) has not proceeded far in any group. We'll see... Later today, I will specify exactly what I would like to get from David when he is back. He does not need to re-do all the plots etc. The important thing now is to make those calculations that are necessary for the paper, and also to make those plots that we will use. Cheers, Anders At 10:39 2005-09-01 +0100, you wrote: Anders, One other thing. I forgot a couple of comments I had on the figures. The current Fig 10 (precip) will need to say in the caption or the text, that the very low correlations for a few stations are mostly in the Med. I hope they are. These types of plots also are potentially useful as homogeneity tests as well. The related temperature plot is much better behaved. The other summary plots are all good. David will be able to revise the time series plots, omitting the key station. The maps look OK. Cheers Phil Anders, Here's a few comments on the current draft. The summary in the results sections is well written. Some bits will likely get repeated in the conclusions and the abstract. What might happen is that you might have to expand on them in the section of the paper and move what is there to the conclusions/abstract. Stick though with what you have for the moment. For the summary/abstract apart from the above, the points to stress are our attempts to produce consistency between the indices across Europe (expressing the precip indices as %s of 1961-90). Also the issue of trying to do as much homogeneity as practical to produce good results. I suspect this will get enhanced once David has produced the comparisons for precip, like you've done for temperature. Minor points There needs to be a sentence in the intro to say we're using standard software. I know it is later, but it could go in the 3rd paragraph. In the data collection section, there is mention of 4 principal sources, which is clear. This is then followed by the second category. I think you just need to say there are 3 categories, and maybe slightly better distinguish the two categories and sources. The first category is readily available sources, the second developed as part of EMULATE and the third data from individual scientists. Emphasize that none of these can be assumed to be OK (problem free) here or in the homogeneity section. Romania and Russia prove this. Could emphasize here and also in the introduction, that the more these series are used for work of this kind, the more any problems will be found. Different types of analyses highlight different sorts of problems. I think we've said some of these things in IMPROVE and also in the 2005 IJC paper. The issue is that homogeneity per se, without any form of analysis, is unlikely to create error-free datasets. Even with the CRU monthly data, we are still finding problems that have been there for ever. Several passes are needed through datasets to get rid of most of the serious errors. In basic quality controls, it would be better to briefly detail the QC steps here rather than refer to the EMULATE web site. Can do the latter, provided the basics are in the paper. Emphasize for Sweden that Tx and Tn were not homogenized separately. The climate indices section is good. David will be able to help with the Analysis Methods section. He should be back in on Monday. In the section on Spatial distribution of Trends, need to say first time that linear trends account for the numbers given, just so it is clear. Don't say precipitation day, but say wet day. The 9th word of the correlation between indices section is delaled. I think you meant dealed, but the proper word is dealt. This is just another English verb where for various tenses it is highly irregular. Para 2 say unsurprising rather than non-surprising. The second half of this paragraph took a while to read and understand fully what was being said. I look forward to the next draft. As I might have said I'll be away from Sept 8-17 inclusive. We are on target for a paper to be ready by the Paris meeting. Presumably you'll talk about many of these analyses during WP4, but hopefully more on what is planned beyond this paper. Hope all these are useful. Cheers Phil At 15:39 30/08/2005, you wrote: Phil, I attach the paper in its current status. As you see there is some rather complete text in most sections apart from the bit with regional time series and the final discussions and conclusions. Obviously, the text on precip will be changed once David has re-run his analyses with the new Russian data. If you have time, it would be good if you give me some indications of any big things that look bad or if you think something is missing. Also, any suggestions for points to stress in the discussion and conclusions are welcome. If you have too little time, then don't bother too much with this now. I will complete the paper anyway - hopefully towards next weekend or so. Cheers, Anders Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4109. 2005-09-06 12:37:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 06 Sep 2005 12:37:00 -0400 from: jgr-atmospheres subject: Re: 2005JD006352 Review Overdue - Third notice to: Keith Briffa Dr. Briffa, Yes, your comments are still required. Telicia Keith Briffa wrote: > Dear John > I have only recently returned from an absence caused by the sudden death > of my father. Sorry but when I rushed to Liverpool , I did not take this > paper. I have since read it in detail - and the case for publishing is , > in my opinion, marginal at best. Before committing time to write a > formal review - just wanted to check that this is still required - given > my tardiness to date? Please advise. > best wishes > Keith > > At 16:19 31/08/2005, you wrote: > >> Dear Dr. Briffa: >> >> On June 21, 2005, you agreed to review "On the Long-Term Context for >> Late 20th Century Warming" by Rosanne D'Arrigo, Robert Wilson, Gordon >> Jacoby [Paper # 2005JD006352] and submit your comments on possible >> publication in Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. To >> date, we have not received your review. Please let us know whether >> you will be able to submit these comments. Please advice us >> immediately if you will not be able to complete this review. >> >> To view the manuscript and complete the review form, click the below >> link. >> >> >> >> >> >> (NOTE: The link above automatically submits your login name and >> password. If you wish to share this link with colleagues, please be >> aware that they will have access to your entire account for this >> journal.) >> >> Thank you for your continuing assistance and support of Journal of >> Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. We look forward to receiving your >> comments. >> >> >> Sincerely, >> John Austin >> Editor, JGR-Atmospheres > > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1683. 2005-09-07 13:56:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 7 Sep 2005 13:56:57 +0100 from: "Jonathan Renouf" subject: Final thoughts to: "Keith Briffa" Hi Keith, Good to talk to you this morning. Just a few thoughts to reiterate what we're hoping to get out of filming tomorrow. 1) Your interview appears at a crucial point in the film. Up until now our presenter (Paul Rose, he'll be there tomorrow) has followed two conflicting thoughts. On the one hand he's understood that the world is currently getting warmer. But on the other he's discovered lots of historical stories (the Bronze Age, the MWP, the LIA) which tell him that climate changes naturally all the time. In trying to resolve this paradox he's come across this thing called the hockey stick curve, and he's come to you to explain it to him. 2) Your essential job is to "prove" to Paul that what we're experiencing now is NOT just another of those natural fluctuations we've seen in the past. The hockey stick curve is a crucial piece of evidence because it shows how abnormal the present period is - the present warming is unprecedented in speed and amplitude, something like that. This is a very big moment in the film when Paul is finally convinced of the reality of man made global warming. 3) The hockey stick curve shows that what Paul thought were big climate events (the Bronze Age maximum, the MWP, the LIA) actually when looked at in a global context weren't quite as dramatic as he thought. They're there, but they are nothing like as sudden or big. 4) Paul can question you on things like: How reliable is the hockey stick curve? How do you work out past climate (cue for you to talk about proxies)? What drives all the "natural" fluctations in climate (this can be answered in very broad terms eg it's down to changes in the sun's output, volcanoes etc) 5) In terms of filming my first choice is to do it as a projection in Zicer, where you show the Mann curve, then flick up as many other ones as you think are important (within reason!) and elaborate the point that what's happening now is unprecedented compared to these historic records. In my ideal world, you walk right up to the projector image and point things out on the screen, with parts of the projected image falling on your heads and shoulders. Stills of tree rings or anything else climate related eg ice cores, corals, would also work as powerpoints, because you could talk about them as egs of proxies. Hopefully this makes it clear what I'm trying to achieve. Look forward to tomorrow. All best Jonathan Jonathan Renouf Series Producer Science Department 201 Wood Lane London W12 7TS Tel: 44-20-8752-5695 Fax: 44-20-8752-7534 Mob: 07739-920-490 Email: jonathan.renouf@bbc.co.uk http://www.bbc.co.uk/ This e-mail (and any attachments) is confidential and may contain personal views which are not the views of the BBC unless specifically stated. If you have received it in error, please delete it from your system. Do not use, copy or disclose the information in any way nor act in reliance on it and notify the sender immediately. Please note that the BBC monitors e-mails sent or received. Further communication will signify your consent to this. 4002. 2005-09-12 19:04:31 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 12 Sep 2005 19:04:31 -0600 from: Martin Manning subject: [Wg1-ar4-las] The WG1 Review process is underway to: wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu Dear Lead Authors Those of you who are registered as expert reviewers for the first order draft will have recently received the general invitation that has gone out to about 1200 experts around the world inviting them to submit review comments and providing them with the access details for the WG1 FOD review web site. For those of you who did not receive this I am attaching here for your information another copy of the "invitation-to-review" letter from the WG1 co-chairs. You are welcome to access the review web site as explained in the attached letter in order to obtain a copy of the draft as it has been distributed. We will shortly be sending Word document versions of each chapter to the corresponding CLAs so that you will have this exact version to work from when considering revisions. Please note that we are asking that all review comments be submitted through the TSU as we are conducting a formal review process and operating under some specific IPCC rules. In particular, it is important to avoid any perception that certain colleagues or groups of scientists have special channels for making comments to you as authors. Thus all comments are to be treated equally and if you have colleagues who would like to make comments on the draft we would ask that you urge them to register as a reviewer on our main web site: [1]http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1_home.html (use the link under "News") and to then submit their comments as part of the standard review process. People registering this way will receive the review instructions from us promptly. Finally, on behalf of the TSU, may I express my sincere appreciation to you all, and particularly to the CLAs, for the quality of the first order draft as submitted. While you will see that the TSU has made many small changes for consistency in format and to correct some errors, this job was made much easier by the care that you obviously all put into preparing the draft in the first place. A list of changes made by the TSU to each chapter (other than formatting) will be sent to the CLAs shortly - these cover things like correcting some cross referencing between chapters, and will include a list of any references that were removed because they were to papers that are not yet available. Best regards Martin Manning -- Recommended Email address: mmanning@al.noaa.gov ** Please note that problems may occur with my @noaa.gov address Dr Martin R Manning, Director, IPCC WG I Support Unit NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory Phone: +1 303 497 4479 325 Broadway, DSRC R/AL8 Fax: +1 303 497 5628 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WG1_ER_Letter1.pdf" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-las mailing list Wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-las 1200. 2005-09-15 09:21:44 ______________________________________________________ cc: Martin Juckes , Anders Moberg , Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de, esper@wsl.ch, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, Myles Allen , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Thu, 15 Sep 2005 09:21:44 -0400 from: hegerl@duke.edu subject: Re: paper on CPD website to: Nanne Weber Great, looking forward to reading it! The paper that edu presented is being revised for nature (but who knows if it winds up there!) - I'll also send you the resubmitted version once we get there. Martin, one of the things on my to do list is find out what I need to do for you - check with Tom about the forcing, do I need to do any writing for now? Gabi Quoting Nanne Weber : > Hi All, > > the paper on the work that I presented at our Oxford > meeting is now published on the > Climate of the Past Discussions (CPD) website, > the first publication stage of the new > electronic journal Climate of the Past. > See their webpage http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/ > under Online Library CPD (papers in open discussion). > Papers published in CPD are fully citable > and archived together with comments on those papers. > > Comments are very welcome, either through the CPD webpage > or directly to me. > Best regards, > > Nanne > > ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > Dr. S. L. Weber > Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) > P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt > The Netherlands > > phone +31 30 2206756 fax +31 30 2202570 > e-mail weber@knmi.nl http://www.knmi.nl/~weber > ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > 4431. 2005-09-20 16:15:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Sep 20 16:15:00 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: optimal fingerprinting to: Gerard van der Schrier At 08:17 20/09/2005, you wrote: The correlation between 'best-guess' amplitude and 'observed' is ca. 0.7, not too bad and obviously not produced by any rescale. Your observation that there was some overshoot in the best-guess was very valid: the results in the little report have been rescaled. yes, I see now the 0.26 scaling factor listed in the conclusions. In the optimal-fingerprinting algorithm of Allen and Tett is a scaling argument which I don't completely understand. Also, I use a NAG-routine to compute the prinicpal components, which applies a scaling. A quick calculation shows that if I made a mistake here, it would produce results which may not be needing this ad-hoc rescaling. There are a few different "conventions" regarding the scaling of EOFs/PCs. The one that I prefer is to scaling the EOF patterns so that they are unit vectors, and applying the opposite scaling to the PCs so that their variance is equal to the eigenvalue (I think). But other conventions are to scale the EOFs so that their "length" is equal to sqrt(eigenvalue) and the variance of the PC becomes equal to the eigenvalue-squared, or to scale EOFs so that their "length" is equal to 1/sqrt(eigenvalue) and the PCs have unit variance. I don't know which of these options the NAG-routines apply, nor which the Allen/Tett algorithm requires. I can ask Nathan if you first check what the NAG-routines do (if it isn't documented, then just calculate the "length" of each EOF vector and see if it is 1, sqrt(e), 1/sqrt(e) or something else!). I'm now a little more excited about this fingerprinting. Do you think it would make a nice RAPID paper if we applied the fingerprinting tehnique on actual SSH measurements? The TOPEX/Poseidon data are available and they show a strong trend over the 90s. In the RAPID annual meeting, we've seen 3 estimates of the decrease in THC (or MHT) strength over this period. Ours would be a fourth complementary way, and the first time optimal fingerprinting is applied in an oceanographic context. I realize that this would mean a further alienation of the original idea to couple *proxy* data to ocean circulation. Despite this difference to the original idea, such a paper would be worthwhile. But the biggest problem is likely to be distinguishing the MHT-trend from the GHG-warming-trend, both of which will influence SSH. The GHG-warming signal in SSH is not well known, being very different between models and also already incorporating a combination of GHG-warming plus MHT-weakening in some models. Perhaps GHG-warming without any ocean circulation response would produce a more uniform pattern of SSH increase? In which case, using the deviations in SSH from the spatial-mean increase might help? Also, reviewers might complain that we only used HadCM3 to estimate the SSH signal pattern - they might ask whether other models would yield very different patterns? That might be avoided by calling this a first attempt, allowing multi-model comparisons to be left until later work (by us or others)? I realize that. I've downloaded the DAI-precipitation, so a quick comparison should not be too difficult. Yes - a quick comparison to see if differences in precipitation data explain the differences in recent PDSI trend should be sufficient. I have done that already. The results are not very spectacular. I did the trick with replacing actual temperatures for the climatological temperatures in a paper on the ALP-IMP data. A huge impact of higher surface temperatures on the areal extent of drought was found. For the US, no such thing happens. Phil recently send me an email, predicting this result! He also wrote that this result would indicate that there is nothing wrong with the CRU-temperatures. I don't quite understand this remark, so I will have to get back on that. I don't understand Phil's remark either. But the result itself could be mentioned in the paper, because it is interesting to know that the temperature changes aren't causing much trend in PDSI. Ken Kunkel replied to my email (I'll forward it.) His datasets are available and seem to be well-documented. Do we really want to get into the trouble of making a second scPDSI dataset with his data? After all, we focus on (sc)PDSI, rather than precipitation. I guess your first reaction was to avoid it, if possible. Hmm. I still want to avoid much extra work. These are all daily data, so would need to be made into monthly totals. Then you would need to locate which 0.5deg boxes each station was in, take the 0.5deg monthly temperatures and the Kunkel station precipitation together to compute PDSI and compare that with the 0.5deg box PDSI that you already computed. Sounds like a lot of work to do for all 0.5deg boxes with Kunkel stations in them. Should I ask Keith - he's back from his holiday tomorrow (Wednesday). Cheers Tim 1895. 2005-09-23 10:03:17 ______________________________________________________ cc: Jonathan Overpeck , Tim Osborn , oyvind.paasche@geo.uib.no, Martin Manning date: Fri, 23 Sep 2005 10:03:17 +0200 from: Eystein Jansen subject: [Fwd: Re: Chapter 6 - Submitted Papers] to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith,see correspondance below. Just to make sure. is the Briffa et al. paper submitted, or should it be deleted from the FOD? The ref to the Wilson et al. paper I assume comes from Peck/Julie, who can handle the issue. Right, Peck? Eystein Envelope-to: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 18:05:33 -0600 To: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no, jto@u.arizona.edu From: Martin Manning Subject: [Fwd: Re: Chapter 6 - Submitted Papers] Cc: ssolomon@al.noaa.gov, ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov X-checked-clean: by exiscan on alf X-UiB-SpamFlag: NO UIB: 1.8 hits, 8.0 required X-UiB-SpamReport: spamassassin found; 0.8 BODY: Contains 'Dear (something)' 1.0 BODY: Claims you can be removed from the list 0.1 BODY: Message is 30% to 40% HTML 0.0 BODY: HTML included in message Dear Eystein and Peck Following the release of the first draft of the WG1-AR4 we have had a response from Steve McIntyre (a name that should ring a bell) regarding unpublished literature in Chapter 6. He also asks about access to data sets but that is not an IPCC function so is easily dealt with. The unpublished papers that he has picked up as not being available are: Briffa, K.R., T.M. Melvin, V.V. Shishov, and et. al, 2005: Warm season temperatures across northern Eurasia: a 2000-year tree-ring based study. Quaternary Science Reviews(In preparation). and Wilson and al. 2005 (mentioned on page 6-31) The first of these was I think meant to be deleted from the text here and we may have made an error in missing that. The second is cited but does not appear in the reference list so we did not pick it up as an unpublished paper that needed to be collected. Could you please let me know: 1) are drafts for either of these papers available yet and if so can you send copies to the TSU? 2) how do you expect to use these references in the second draft - remembering that we can only use papers that are in press at that time and that the Briffa et al paper is used quite a bit - e.g. on page 6-29. I am attaching the correspondence with McIntyre below for your information but the only issues you need to consider are those above, and we will handle any further interactions with McIntyre from here. Thanks Martin Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 16:42:00 -0600 From: IPCC-WG1 User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; PPC Mac OS X Mach-O; en-US; rv:1.4) Gecko/20030624 Netscape/7.1 X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: martin Manning Subject: [Fwd: Re: Chapter 6 - Submitted Papers] X-Rcpt-To: X-DPOP: Version number supressed -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: Chapter 6 - Submitted Papers Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2005 13:30:52 -0400 From: Steve McIntyre [1] To: IPCC-WG1 [2] References: <026101c5bd56$fbafb280$6402a8c0@herbert> [3]<432F2687.3030101@al.noaa.gov> <029101c5bd95$4d2ae240$6402a8c0@herbert> [4]<43303CC7.7080401@al.noaa.gov> It's possible that the references were inadvertently left in, in which case your suggestion that a comment be pointed on the review form would obviously suffice. However, it's equally possible that the authors intend to use these references and they inadvertently failed to post them up on the website. If the latter, then they should ask the authors to post up the references. Could you verify which applies with the authors and, if the latter, take appropriate steps. Additionally, I have attempted to locate van Ommen, Annals of Glaciology, 39, mentioned in the same section. Can you confirm that this volume has either been printed or made available electronically (as I am presently unable to locate wither). If not, then this should be made available in a pdf form at the website. I have been unable to locate supplementary information or data archives for several of the articles posted at the pdf location for Chapter 6 and would appreciate assistance in this regard. 1) Hegerl et al, submitted. Can you provide me with an ftp location for the proxy data used in this study (which does not even list the proxies used) or post it at your website. 2) D'Arrigo et al, submitted. Again, this data has not been archived at WDCP. Can you provide me with an ftp location for the proxy data used in this study or post it at your website. Similarly, the SI to Rutherford et al, 2005 does not contain the Briffa et al. data set. Again can you provide an ftp location for this dataset or otherwise provide it. Thank you for your attention, Steve McIntyre ----- Original Message ----- From: [5]IPCC-WG1 To: [6]Steve McIntyre Sent: Tuesday, September 20, 2005 12:45 PM Subject: Re: Chapter 6 - Submitted Papers Dear Dr McIntyre, It would seem that the authors may have inadvertently left in the Wilson et al. and Briffa et al. citations, as I do not have copies of the preprints for either. I apologize for the discrepancy and have made note of this error for the authors for correction of the next draft, but if you would also like to comment on this in your review, please do so. Best regards, Melinda Tignor Steve McIntyre wrote: Thanks for the directions. I found 5 of them there. I was still unable to locate Briffa et al, 2005 (QSR in prep) or Wilson and al. 2005 (mentioned on page 6-31). Could you take a look for them. Thanks. ----- Original Message ----- From: [7]IPCC-WG1 To: [8]Steve McIntyre Sent: Monday, September 19, 2005 4:58 PM Subject: Re: Chapter 6 - Submitted Papers Dear Mr McIntyre, As mentioned on the Reviewer website, copies of unpublished literature may be downloaded for your review. Papers for each chapter are found at the same website: URL: [9]http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/restricted/review/FOR/ UserName: WG1-FOR Password: 2005Nov04 Once inside the site, click on "Download Draft Chapters" on the left side of the page. From here, scroll down the page where you downloaded the chapter to the last sentence, "If you wish to see copies of unpublished papers cited in the draft chapters click here" - click "here" and you will be taken to another page listing all the chapters with unpublished literature and from clicking on the individual chapter you will be taken to the list of unpublished literature. Please let me know if I can be of further assistance. Best regards, Melinda Tignor WGI TSU Steve McIntyre wrote: Dear Sirs, The covering literature indicated that the website would provide access to submitted, in-press, or otherwise unpublished papers and reports that are cited in the draft WG I report. In connection with Chapter 6, I was unable to locate the following: Briffa et al, 2005. ( presumably this is the paper denoted as in prep. in the bibliography) DArrigo et al, submitted Hegerl et al, submitted Smerdon et al 2005. JGR (in review) Tett et al, submitted. Clim. Dyn. submitted. Wahl and Ammann 2004. (in review) Wilson and al, 2005 (referred to on page 6-31, but not in bibliography. Could you please post these on the website or email me pdf's. For these unpublished articles, could you also provide locations of FTP sites where the underlying data may be reviewed. Thank you for your attention, Stephen McIntyre -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IPCC WGI TSU NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 325 Broadway DSRC R/AL8 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Phone: +1 303 497 7072 Fax: +1 303 497 5686/5628 Email: [10]ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IPCC WGI TSU NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 325 Broadway DSRC R/AL8 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Phone: +1 303 497 7072 Fax: +1 303 497 5686/5628 Email: [11]ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IPCC WGI TSU NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 325 Broadway DSRC R/AL8 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Phone: +1 303 497 7072 Fax: +1 303 497 5686/5628 Email: [12]ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov -- Recommended Email address: mmanning@al.noaa.gov ** Please note that problems may occur with my @noaa.gov address Dr Martin R Manning, Director, IPCC WG I Support Unit NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory Phone: +1 303 497 4479 325 Broadway, DSRC R/AL8 Fax: +1 303 497 5628 Boulder, CO 80305, USA -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 3472. 2005-09-23 10:55:40 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Sep 23 10:55:40 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Fwd: McIntyre Jones and Briffa to: Keith Briffa , p.jones@uea.ac.uk, t.m.melvin@uea.ac.uk David and I were just doing a quick search for "briffa error" on google and it came up with this page: [1]http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=159 with discussion of modern sample bias and a link to Tom's PhD thesis, plus quotes from it, etc. They may well have got some of the ideas in the abstract below from Tom's thesis! Hopefully nobody will preempt your papers on standardisation and bias. Cheers Tim At 13:19 22/09/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: Keith, found this posting on McIntyre´s blog. Something in the making, just to warn you if you did not see it yet. Cheers Eystein 9/16/2005 U.S. climate change Science Program Workshop I've had an abstract accepted for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Workshop, "Climate Science in Support of Decisionmaking," to be held November 14-16, 2005. My abstract is entitled: "More on Hockey Sticks: the Case of Jones et al [1998]". The workshop is described here. Here is my abstract (which moves on from MBH): More on Hockey Sticks: the Case of Jones et al [1998] Abstract. Multiproxy studies purporting to show 20th century uniqueness have been applied by policymakers, but they have received remarkably little independent critical analysis. Jones et al. [1998] is a prominent multi-proxy study used by IPCC [2001] and others to affirm the hockey stick shaped temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. [1998]. However, the reconstruction of Jones et al. [1998] is based on only 3-4 proxies in the controversial Medieval Warm Period, including non-arms-length studies by Briffa et al. [1992] and Briffa et al [1995]. We show that the Polar Urals data set in Briffa et al [1992] fails to meet a variety of quality control standards, both in replication and crossdating. The conclusion of Briffa et al. [1995] that 1032 was the "coldest year" of the millennium proves to be based on inadequate replication of only 3 tree ring cores, of which at least 2 are almost certainly incorrectly crossdated. We show that an ad hoc adjustment to the Tornetrask data set in Briffa et al [1992] cannot be justified. The individual and combined impact of defects in the Polar Urals data set and Tornetrask adjustments on the reconstruction of Jones et al [1998] is substantial and can be seen to have the effect of modifying what would otherwise indicate a pronounced Medieval Warm Period in the proxy reconstruction. Inhomogeneity problems in the Polar Urals and Tornetrask data sets, pertaining to altitude, minimum girth bias and pith centering bias will also be discussed. 1110. 2005-09-23 15:00:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 23 Sep 2005 15:00:22 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Greenpeace to: c.goodess@uea.ac.uk,n.gillett@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, d.viner@uea.ac.uk,k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear All, I've not got the time to do this. If anyone is interested then email Mike Schwarz. I've told him I've no time. Bear in mind the other side will likely get someone to put the opposite view across. Not sent widely as I presume a court would only be impressed by qualifications. Phil Subject: Greenpeace Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 17:49:15 +0100 X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: Greenpeace Thread-Index: AcW6G77TJ2PQCOHXTWyyZ6w4u6nI9QFeWxLwAAANZpA= From: "Mike Schwarz" To: X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO [] [] [] Dear Professor Jones Please forgive this e-mail out of the blue. I have been given your name by Greenpeace. I am acting for some Greenpeace campaigners who face criminal proceedings arising from a protest about a new Landrover model which they say is unnecessarily fuel-inefficient and therefore contributes more than necessary to climate change. I am looking for an expert who might be able to prepare a short (4 or 5 pages) report - aimed at a lay audience, rather than cutting edge science - summarising the connection between human activity and climate change and the effects of climate change with a view, if need be, to giving evidence at my clients' trial - at West London Magistrates Court on 28^th and 31^st October. My clients have legal aid to be represented and so I would be able to pay for a report. Is this something, in principle, you would be able and willing to help with? If so I shall give you further details. If not, is there someone else you could suggest? You should be aware that I have written in similar terms to Professor Hulme. I look forward to hearing from you. Mike Schwarz ___________________________________________________________________________________ This email is from Bindman & Partners Solicitors of 275 Gray's Inn Road London WC1X 8QB, United Kingdom . Tel +44 (0)20 7833 4433 Fax +44 (0)20 7837 9792 DX 37904 Kings Cross. [1]www.bindmans.com A list of partners is available on request. This email is intended to be read only by the addressee. Its contents are confidential and may also be the subject of legal privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this email and it has therefore reached you by mistake, please notify this firm immediately at the address given below. You are hereby placed on notice that any copying, publication or any other form of dissemination of this email or its contents is prohibited. Communications including e-mails may be monitored in the interests of maintaining professional standards. If you have received this email in error or have any questions please contact: [2]postmaster@bindmans.com Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3968. 2005-09-26 11:35:26 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Osborn Timothy Dr \(CRU\) f055" date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 11:35:26 +0100 from: "McGarvie Michael Mr \(ACAD\) k364" subject: RE: Re: Freedom of Information Act to: "Goodess Clare Dr \(CRU\) f034" Clare, Very happy for Tim to meet and discuss with Dave. I will alert Dave and perhaps Tim could get in touch with him directly? Thanks Michael -----Original Message----- From: Clare Goodess [mailto:C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Monday, September 26, 2005 11:31 AM To: McGarvie Michael Mr (ACAD) k364 Cc: Osborn Timothy Dr (CRU) f055 Subject: RE: Re: Freedom of Information Act Michael The whole situation is quite complicated and politically sensitive. Would it be possible for Tim and Dave to meet to discuss this. I think this would be the most efficient way of handling things. Clare At 11:23 26/09/2005, you wrote: >Clare, > >I am sorry that you have not had a reply to your earlier emails. As I >think I mentioned in an earlier email, I am the person who co-ordinates >any requests that come through on FOIA relating to the SCI Faculty and >do not have 'chapter and verse' on policy. I will chase this one >through Dave Palmer who is the 'guru' on such things. > >Your message refers to a formal request under FOIA for information. >Could you please forward that to Dave? > >Thanks > >Michael > >-----Original Message----- >From: Clare Goodess [mailto:C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk] >Sent: Monday, September 26, 2005 11:17 AM >To: David.Palmer@uea.ac.uk; m.mcgarvie@uea.ac.uk >Cc: Osborn Timothy Dr (CRU) f055; Briffa Keith Prof (CRU) f023; Jones >Philip Prof (CRU) f028 >Subject: Fwd: Re: Freedom of Information Act > >Dear Mike and David > >In February through April this year, I tried to get some advice from >you on behalf of Tim Osborn and colleagues in the Climatic Research >Unit who were concerned about the implications of the FOI for some of >their research data. Unfortunately, you were not able to provide any >advice then. > >However, as you will see from the forwarded email below, an issue has >now arisen (as Tim anticipated earlier this year). I would be very >grateful if you could offer Tim and Keith some help with this issue >as a matter of urgency. > > >Best wishes, Clare > > > > >X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.2.3.4 > >Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2005 10:56:06 +0100 > >To: Clare Goodess > >From: Tim Osborn > >Subject: Fwd: Re: Freedom of Information Act > >Cc: "Keith Briffa" > > > >Hi Clare - back in the spring, you were making enquiries regarding > >research data and FOI Act. Did you ever receive a decision from the > >relevant people? We have received a request for data that we do not > >wish to give out because it is valuable to us/UEA in terms of future > >research and future funding - but are we obliged to do so under the > >FOI Act? - Cheers, Tim > > > >>Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 13:53:01 +0000 > >>To: Clare Goodess > >>From: Tim Osborn > >>Subject: Re: Freedom of Information Act > >> > >>Hi Clare - I'm not clear how this applies to research data. Do I > >>have to give out my data if someone requests it? Who will pay if > >>there's a considerable amount of time involved? Or can I just say > >>that the data are private? > >> > >>Cheers > >> > >>Tim > >> > >>At 13:39 01/02/2005, you wrote: > >>>Dear all > >>> > >>>All CRU staff should have received important emails from Alan > >>>Preece on 14 and 29 January concerning the Freedom of Information > >>>Act which came into full force on 1 January 2005 - together with a > >>>leaflet. (If you are a member of staff and haven't received > >>>these, please let me know). > >>> > >>>It is important that we all comply with this act. If anybody in > >>>CRU (staff or student) receives a request which refers to the > >>>Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), please forward it immediately > >>>to the Faculty of Science FOIA contact - Mike McGarvie (x 3229, > >>>m.mcgarvie@uea.ac.uk) and copy it to Phil and myself. If you are > >>>unsure about the request or it is unusual, please copy to Phil and > >>>myself and we'll decide if we need to consult Mike McGarvie. > >>> > >>> > >>>Best wishes, Clare > >>> > >>> > >>>Dr Clare Goodess > >>>Climatic Research Unit > >>>University of East Anglia > >>>Norwich > >>>NR4 7TJ > >>>UK > >>> > >>>Tel: +44 -1603 592875 > >>>Fax: +44 -1603 507784 > >>>Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ > >>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm > > > >Dr Timothy J Osborn > >Climatic Research Unit > >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > >phone: +44 1603 592089 > >fax: +44 1603 507784 > >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > >Dr Clare Goodess >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences >University of East Anglia >Norwich >NR4 7TJ >UK > >Tel: +44 -1603 592875 >Fax: +44 -1603 507784 >Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm Dr Clare Goodess Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: +44 -1603 592875 Fax: +44 -1603 507784 Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~clareg/clare.htm 2590. 2005-09-28 10:37:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 10:37:37 -0400 from: "Rosanne D'Arrigo" subject: Re: Fw: D'Arrigo et al, submitted to: Tim Osborn hi Rob - i am leary of passing all of this around but in this case i am glad in that osborn et al need to know what is going on - they should fire him as a reviewer of IPCC - i cant believe they included him in the first place! So, please email him back and tell him that he should as he says take it up with the ipcc authors and see whether it is still appropriate to include him as a reviewer. we should however be very cautious about our emails, lord v will stop at nothing (this is sort of fun in a harry potter way)... R >Dear Rob and Rosanne, > >I strongly agree that this is an abuse of his >position as IPCC reviewer! The data archiving >issues are a separate issue because I think >there's no need for the data you used to be >publicly available until the paper is actually >published, and I would hope that the editor >would respond appropriately. But the other >comments could clearly influence the >editorial/review process and this is very unfair >when your paper has already been reviewed by >others. McIntyre could of course submit a >comment after your paper was published if he >wished to criticize certain aspects, and that is >the route he should have followed. He tried to >stop publication of a paper that I was a >co-author on, Rutherford et al. (2005), by >contacting the editor of J. Climate with various >criticisms - fortunately the editor told him >firmly that the route to take was to submit a >comment after publication. However, in our case >the paper was already in press. In your case, >with the editor's decision still to be made, >there is clearly more scope for McIntyre to >influence the decision in your case - and this >certainly should not happen. > >The conditions which McIntyre (and all other >IPCC reviewers) agreed to before downloading >your manuscript were: > >"This site also provides access to copies of >some submitted, in-press, or otherwise >unpublished papers and reports that are cited in >the draft WG I report. All such material is made >available only to support the review of the IPCC >drafts. These works are not themselves subject >to the IPCC review process and are not to be >distributed, quoted or cited without prior >permission from their original authors in each >instance." > >I don't think that contacting the journal editor >with criticisms is "only to support the review >of the IPCC drafts". > >I will take this issue up with the chapter lead >authors and the WG1 technical support unit - >unless you prefer that I didn't. Please let me >know. > >Cheers > >Tim > >At 08:33 28/09/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: >>Hi Tim and Keith, >>please see the e-mail (below) from Steve Macintyre to the Editor of JGR. >> >>This seems a major abuse of his position as reviewer for IPCC? >> >>In some respects, I don't mind having to >>address his comments (many of which are already >>adequately explained I think, although a >>detailed list of all data used could certainly >>go in an appendix), but this just seems a bit >>off. After all, we have addressed the reviewers >>comments and are currently awaiting a decision. >>This e-mail may effect the decision greatly. >> >>Is he going to do this for all papers he does not quite agree with. >> >>comments? >> >>Rob >> >>---------- >> >>>From: "Steve McIntyre" >>><stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca> >>>To: "Colin O'Dowd" <jgr@nuigalway.ie> >>>Cc: "Rob Wilson" >>><rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>, >>> "Rosanne D'Arrigo" >>><druidrd@ldeo.columbia.edu> >>>Subject: D'Arrigo et al, submitted >>>Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 10:37:06 -0400 >>>Dear Dr O'Dowd, >>>I am a reviewer for the IPCC Fourth Assessment >>>Report (IPCC 4AR) and am writing in respect to >>>a submission to your journal by D'Arrigo et >>>al., entitled "On the Long-Term Context for >>>Late 20th Century Warming." This article was >>>referenced in chapter 6 of the Draft IPCC 4AR >>>and made available to IPCC reviewers. In the >>>course of my review, I contacted the senior >>>author, Dr. D'Arrigo, for the FTP location of >>>the data used in this article or for >>>alternative access to the data. Dr D'Arrigo >>>categorically refused and I was referred to >>>the journal editor if I desired recourse. >>> >>> >>>Data Citation and Archiving >>>I point out that AGU policies for data >>>citation and data archiving >>>(http://www.agu.org/pubs/data_policy.html >>>) specifically require that authors provide >>>data citation according to AGU standards and >>>require that contributors archive data in >>>permanent archives, such as the World Data >>>Center for Paleoclimatology. For example, the >>>policy states: >>> >>> >>>1. Data sets cited in AGU publications must >>>meet the same type of standards for public >>>access and long-term availability as are >>>applied to citations to the scientific >>>literature. Thus data cited in AGU >>>publications must be permanently archived in a >>>data center … >>>2. Data sets that are available only from the >>>author, through miscellaneous public network >>>services, or academic, government or >>>commercial institutions not chartered >>>specifically for archiving data, may not be >>>cited in AGU publications. >>> >>> >>>On page 21 of D'Arrigo et al., there is a >>>listing of "regional groupings" of data. In >>>some cases, part of the data is archived at >>>WDCP; in other cases, the data has been >>>collected by the authors, but has not been >>>archived. >>> >>> >>>In cases, where the data has been archived, it >>>has not been cited according to AGU policies. >>>For example, the Torntraesk site is presumably >>>swed019w, but this is not stated. The Polar >>>Urals site appears to be a combination of >>>russ021w, russ176w and russ022w, but this is >>>not stated. The Quebec site appears to be a >>>version of cana036, but a version that differs >>>from the one archived, as it includes more >>>series. The "Mongolia" site appears to be the >>>authors' mong003 site, but a different version >>>than the one archived (which commences at a >>>different date). The "Yukon" series is a >>>combination of two sites, which are not >>>stated. At least one of the sites is a >>>different version from the one archived. The >>>Icefields site is again a different version >>>than the one archived. Other data sets e.g. >>>Seward, NW North America, Central Alaska, >>>Wrangells, Coast Alaska, Central NWT, Southern >>>Alaska, have been collected by the authors and >>>are either not archived at all or archived in >>>obsolete versions. >>> >>> >>>In order that this submission comply with AGU >>>policies on data archiving, I request that you >>>require D'Arrigo et al. do (1) provide >>>accurate data citations complying with AGU >>>policies for all data sets presently archived >>>at WDCP; (2) archive all "grey" data used in >>>the article. >>> >>> >>>Methodology >>>The results of this article depend on >>>methodological details, especially as to >>>standardization procedures. However, these >>>procedures are not described in objective or >>>operational terms. I will illustrate some >>>examples below: >>> Page 21 – "In select cases, a power transform >>>(PT) was applied to correct for data biases. >>>This bias was assessed by correlation and >>>residual analysis against both local and large >>>scale temperature series." In which cases was >>>PT applied and what were the objective >>>criteria in the correlation and residual >>>analysis, which were used to determine whether >>>this should be applied. >>> >>> >>> >>>Page 21 – "Due to differing populations in the >>>TR data, the data-sets were often grouped into >>>'common' populations. No one strategy is >>>appropriate for all data-sets and careful >>>evaluation of each composite data-set was >>>made." That's nice, but what were the >>>operational criteria which were used to >>>allocate each case to the 5 different >>>alternative procedures. >>> >>> >>>Page 7 – "The standard error of the regression >>>estimate (standard deviation of the regression >>>residuals) from the full period calibration >>>was used to generate the 2 sigma error bars >>>and this was also adjusted (inflated) to >>>account for the change (decrease) in explained >>>variance in each nest." – The last adjustment >>>is not described in operational terms. >>>Shouldn't the standard error be realistically >>>measured by the standard deviation from the >>>verification period residuals? >>> >>> >>>Page 20. "Successful modeling of paleoclimate >>>data with the high temperatures of the late >>>1990s is essential if we are to make robust, >>>definitive conclusions about past temperature >>>amplitudes and variability." Abstract – >>>"presently-available paleoclimatic >>>reconstructions are inadequate for making >>>specific inferences, at hemispheric scales, >>>about MWP warmth relative to the anthropogenic >>>period and that such comparisons can only >>>still be made at the local/regional scale." >>>Page 13. "After this period [mid-1980s], the >>>divergence between the tree-ring and >>>instrumental data results in weakening of >>>calibration results and failed verification >>>statistics". The authors contradict these >>>caveats by proceeding to make a variety of >>>inferences and claims "at hemispheric scales" >>>about MWP warmth or lack thereof relative to >>>the modern period. A comparison of their >>>reconstruction to instrumental temperatures is >>>prominently made in the Abstract, on page 10 >>>and page 14. If the reconstructions are >>>inadequate for making these inferences, then >>>don't make them. >>> >>> >>>Thank you for your consideration, >>> >>> >>>Yours truly, >>>Stephen McIntyre >>> > >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Rosanne D'Arrigo, Senior Research Scientist Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory 61 Route 9W Palisades, New York 10964 845 365 8617 845 365 8152 fax NOTE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS:rdd@ldeo.columbia.edu 4868. 2005-09-29 09:20:00 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 09:20:00 +0100 from: Tim Osborn subject: McIntyre and D'Arrigo et al (submitted) to: Phil Jones , Eystein Jansen , Jonathan Overpeck Dear Phil, Eystein and Peck, I've already talked about this to Phil and Keith, but for Eystein's and Peck's benefit the emails copied below relate to McIntyre downloading a PDF of a manuscript cited by the IPCC paleo chapter and then apparently trying to interfere with the editorial process that the paper is currently going through at JGR. I think this is an abuse of McIntyre's position as an IPCC reviewer. Rosanne replied to my email below, to say that they *do* want this taken further. So... Phil has agreed to forward these messages to Susan Solomon and Michael Manning. Eystein and Peck: do you want to add anything too? Cheers Tim >Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2005 09:08:22 +0100 >To: "Rob Wilson" , "Rosanne D'Arrigo" > >From: Tim Osborn >Subject: Re: Fw: D'Arrigo et al, submitted >Cc: > >Dear Rob and Rosanne, > >I strongly agree that this is an abuse of his position as IPCC >reviewer! The data archiving issues are a separate issue because I >think there's no need for the data you used to be publicly available >until the paper is actually published, and I would hope that the >editor would respond appropriately. But the other comments could >clearly influence the editorial/review process and this is very >unfair when your paper has already been reviewed by >others. McIntyre could of course submit a comment after your paper >was published if he wished to criticize certain aspects, and that is >the route he should have followed. He tried to stop publication of >a paper that I was a co-author on, Rutherford et al. (2005), by >contacting the editor of J. Climate with various criticisms - >fortunately the editor told him firmly that the route to take was to >submit a comment after publication. However, in our case the paper >was already in press. In your case, with the editor's decision >still to be made, there is clearly more scope for McIntyre to >influence the decision in your case - and this certainly should not happen. > >The conditions which McIntyre (and all other IPCC reviewers) agreed >to before downloading your manuscript were: > >"This site also provides access to copies of some submitted, >in-press, or otherwise unpublished papers and reports that are cited >in the draft WG I report. All such material is made available only >to support the review of the IPCC drafts. These works are not >themselves subject to the IPCC review process and are not to be >distributed, quoted or cited without prior permission from their >original authors in each instance." > >I don't think that contacting the journal editor with criticisms is >"only to support the review of the IPCC drafts". > >I will take this issue up with the chapter lead authors and the WG1 >technical support unit - unless you prefer that I didn't. Please let me know. > >Cheers > >Tim > >At 08:33 28/09/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: >>Hi Tim and Keith, >>please see the e-mail (below) from Steve Macintyre to the Editor of JGR. >> >>This seems a major abuse of his position as reviewer for IPCC? >> >>In some respects, I don't mind having to address his comments (many >>of which are already adequately explained I think, although a >>detailed list of all data used could certainly go in an >>appendix), but this just seems a bit off. After all, we have >>addressed the reviewers comments and are currently awaiting a >>decision. This e-mail may effect the decision greatly. >> >>Is he going to do this for all papers he does not quite agree with. >> >>comments? >> >>Rob >> >>---------- >> >> >>>From: "Steve McIntyre" >>><stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca> >>>To: "Colin O'Dowd" <jgr@nuigalway.ie> >>>Cc: "Rob Wilson" >>><rjwilson_dendro@blueyonder.co.uk>, >>> "Rosanne D'Arrigo" >>> <druidrd@ldeo.columbia.edu> >>>Subject: D'Arrigo et al, submitted >>>Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2005 10:37:06 -0400 >>>Dear Dr O'Dowd, >>>I am a reviewer for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 4AR) >>>and am writing in respect to a submission to your journal by >>>D'Arrigo et al., entitled "On the Long-Term Context for Late 20th >>>Century Warming." This article was referenced in chapter 6 of the >>>Draft IPCC 4AR and made available to IPCC reviewers. In the course >>>of my review, I contacted the senior author, Dr. D'Arrigo, for the >>>FTP location of the data used in this article or for alternative >>>access to the data. Dr D'Arrigo categorically refused and I was >>>referred to the journal editor if I desired recourse. >>> >>> >>>Data Citation and Archiving >>>I point out that AGU policies for data citation and data archiving >>>(http://www.agu.org/pubs/data_policy.html >>>) specifically require that authors provide data citation >>>according to AGU standards and require that contributors archive >>>data in permanent archives, such as the World Data Center for >>>Paleoclimatology. For example, the policy states: >>> >>> >>>1. Data sets cited in AGU publications must meet the same type of >>>standards for public access and long-term availability as are >>>applied to citations to the scientific literature. Thus data cited >>>in AGU publications must be permanently archived in a data center … >>>2. Data sets that are available only from the author, through >>>miscellaneous public network services, or academic, government or >>>commercial institutions not chartered specifically for archiving >>>data, may not be cited in AGU publications. >>> >>> >>>On page 21 of D'Arrigo et al., there is a listing of "regional >>>groupings" of data. In some cases, part of the data is archived at >>>WDCP; in other cases, the data has been collected by the authors, >>>but has not been archived. >>> >>> >>>In cases, where the data has been archived, it has not been cited >>>according to AGU policies. For example, the Torntraesk site is >>>presumably swed019w, but this is not stated. The Polar Urals site >>>appears to be a combination of russ021w, russ176w and russ022w, >>>but this is not stated. The Quebec site appears to be a version of >>>cana036, but a version that differs from the one archived, as it >>>includes more series. The "Mongolia" site appears to be the >>>authors' mong003 site, but a different version than the one >>>archived (which commences at a different date). The "Yukon" series >>>is a combination of two sites, which are not stated. At least one >>>of the sites is a different version from the one archived. The >>>Icefields site is again a different version than the one archived. >>>Other data sets e.g. Seward, NW North America, Central Alaska, >>>Wrangells, Coast Alaska, Central NWT, Southern Alaska, have been >>>collected by the authors and are either not archived at all or >>>archived in obsolete versions. >>> >>> >>>In order that this submission comply with AGU policies on data >>>archiving, I request that you require D'Arrigo et al. do (1) >>>provide accurate data citations complying with AGU policies for >>>all data sets presently archived at WDCP; (2) archive all "grey" >>>data used in the article. >>> >>> >>>Methodology >>>The results of this article depend on methodological details, >>>especially as to standardization procedures. However, these >>>procedures are not described in objective or operational terms. I >>>will illustrate some examples below: >>> Page 21 – "In select cases, a power transform (PT) was applied >>> to correct for data biases. This bias was assessed by correlation >>> and residual analysis against both local and large scale >>> temperature series." In which cases was PT applied and what were >>> the objective criteria in the correlation and residual analysis, >>> which were used to determine whether this should be applied. >>> >>> >>> >>>Page 21 – "Due to differing populations in the TR data, the >>>data-sets were often grouped into 'common' populations. No one >>>strategy is appropriate for all data-sets and careful evaluation >>>of each composite data-set was made." That's nice, but what were >>>the operational criteria which were used to allocate each case to >>>the 5 different alternative procedures. >>> >>> >>>Page 7 – "The standard error of the regression estimate (standard >>>deviation of the regression residuals) from the full period >>>calibration was used to generate the 2 sigma error bars and this >>>was also adjusted (inflated) to account for the change (decrease) >>>in explained variance in each nest." – The last adjustment is not >>>described in operational terms. Shouldn't the standard error be >>>realistically measured by the standard deviation from the >>>verification period residuals? >>> >>> >>>Page 20. "Successful modeling of paleoclimate data with the high >>>temperatures of the late 1990s is essential if we are to make >>>robust, definitive conclusions about past temperature amplitudes >>>and variability." Abstract – "presently-available paleoclimatic >>>reconstructions are inadequate for making specific inferences, at >>>hemispheric scales, about MWP warmth relative to the anthropogenic >>>period and that such comparisons can only still be made at the >>>local/regional scale." Page 13. "After this period [mid-1980s], >>>the divergence between the tree-ring and instrumental data results >>>in weakening of calibration results and failed verification >>>statistics". The authors contradict these caveats by proceeding to >>>make a variety of inferences and claims "at hemispheric scales" >>>about MWP warmth or lack thereof relative to the modern period. A >>>comparison of their reconstruction to instrumental temperatures is >>>prominently made in the Abstract, on page 10 and page 14. If the >>>reconstructions are inadequate for making these inferences, then >>>don't make them. >>> >>> >>>Thank you for your consideration, >>> >>> >>>Yours truly, >>>Stephen McIntyre >>> Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 1980. 2005-09-30 15:29:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 30 Sep 2005 15:29:54 -0600 from: IPCC-WG1 subject: [Wg1-ar4-las] Review process information to: wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu Dear Lead Authors, Thanks for your very hard work in producing the First Order Draft of the WG1 AR4, which is now under expert review. We are tremendously impressed with the drafts and look forward to discussing the material with you. Following some recent events regarding use of the unpublished material cited in the FOD that is being made available to reviewers through the generosity of other kind colleagues, we would like to summarize here some aspects of the IPCC procedure that should be clearly understood by authors and reviewers alike. As per IPCC procedures, unpublished "materials referenced" in the draft chapters are being provided to the reviewers. This is done only on the strict condition that none of these may be quoted, cited, or distributed without the prior consent of the original authors in each case. Reviewers have been clearly informed of these provisions. "Materials referenced" is unambiguously defined by the list of such "references" given at the end of each chapter. It does not extend beyond those cited references to such material as datasets, computer codes, or other sources of information that those papers may themselves cite or use. Please be advised that it is inappropriate for reviewers to cite their acting as reviewers in the IPCC process as entitling them to access to such additional information from us, from you, or from the authors of cited papers. Our review web site also makes it very clear that access to unpublished material for the purposes of the IPCC review does not imply any role in reviewing those papers that have been submitted to peer reviewed journals. The IPCC process can not supercede or alter the practices related to scientific review of papers followed by individual scientific journals. If you become aware of any attempts to use access to unpublished material to influence its publication in any way please inform the TSU immediately. Please also be advised that all IPCC reviewer comments are to be submitted through the written review procedures, and must be collected and archived by the TSU. This is essential to meet the need for a formal process that is open and transparent. Thus the IPCC review process cannot operate via email exchanges among individuals. Reviewers were given information on how to access the WG1 web site, where they can upload their forms containing any comments. If they have technical difficulties they have been advised to contact the TSU. Lead Authors have no obligation to enter into communication with reviewers and there should be no need to do so. While we recognize that this is an area in which you may have to make your own judgments, we would suggest that you be cautious in your own interests and those of the IPCC. If you receive emails or other communications from reviewers you may wish to indicate that dialogue with individual reviewers during the review and drafting process could compromise the requirements for transparency in the IPCC review process, and that reviewers should provide all comments in the standard way to the TSU. We hope this information is helpful to you. Thanks again and we look forward to seeing you in New Zealand in a few months. Yours sincerely, Susan Solomon and Martin Manning _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-las mailing list Wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-las 2474. 2005-10-08 12:50:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 08 Oct 2005 12:50:50 +0200 from: Heinz Wanner subject: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop - past millennia variability to: christoph.kull@pages.unibe.ch, JSmith@stratusconsulting.com, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, kiefer@pages.unibe.ch, lwillia@epri.com, mann@psu.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk Dear colleagues, thanks for your messages. I will not comment the different suggestions but discuss it within the PAGES group in Bern and let you know our ideas next week. My opinion is that we should not loose too much time. Kind regards, Heinz --------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Heinz Wanner, Prof., Director of NCCR (National Center of Competence in Research in Climate) --------------------------------------------------------------- Office Institute of Geography: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 8885 Phone +41 (0)31 631 3160 Fax +41 (0)31 631 8511 Fax +41 (0)31 631 4383 www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch e-mail: heinz.wanner@giub.unibe.ch --------------------------------------------------------------- 2305. 2005-10-19 14:55:54 ______________________________________________________ cc: Thorsten Kiefer date: Wed, 19 Oct 2005 14:55:54 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop - past millennia variability to: Keith Briffa , Christoph Kull , "Michael E. Mann" , Heinz Wanner Dear All, I echo Keith's points. I didn't get a chance to talk to Keith today before he left for London. I have just had a phone call though from someone in the States. The person was Joel Smith from Stratus Consulting of Boulder, CO. His details are below. Their web site looks sound and Kevin Trenberth says they are OK. I talked to Kevin about them when they first approached me a year ago. What they wanted me to do was potentially organize a workshop on Climate Variability, decadal to centennial scale variability. What do we believe from obs and paleo and do models reproduce this. The funder for the workshop is EPRI who want to fund more in this area. The workshop would lead to an agenda for them. I mentioned our proposal and he asked me to send him this. I can't think of any good reason why not, so I'm about to do this. I'll cc this to all of you. I told him I'm away tomorrow and Friday, so he might get back to you Christoph if he likes the proposal. Why EPRI are using a company to organize meetings may seem odd, but this maybe how EPRI works. Mike may want to comment on this. EPRI has funded some good things in the past and thieir heart is in the right place. Nothing may come of this, it was just a case of chance - his phone call and your email yesterday, Christoph. Cheers Phil From: "Joel Smith" To: X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.1 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Hi Phil, It was great to talk to you just now. You have my e-mail. My phone is 1-303-381-8218 and the fax is 1-303-381-8200 I look forward to seeing the materials on the climate variability workshop. yours, Joel At 10:22 18/10/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: Christoph and friends Sorry to hear this. The motivation for CLIVAR involvment arose out of the PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Committee meeting in Victoria last year , so if the meeting is held without CLIVAR input it would seem to have negative implications for the future of that Committee. On the other hand , the idea was tabled because of a crucial scientific need to co-ordinate a systematic comparison of methods of reconstruction (and implications for future model/data comparisons). Hence my feeling is that the meeting should go ahead as your second suggestion - but let CLIVAR know , and some support may also be forthcoming. If not, some of the potential attendees (me, Mike,Gavin etc.) can represent that CLIVAR involvement. cheers Keith At 09:21 18/10/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear all, Finally I got a response back from CLIVAR regarding the attempt we made, getting funding for the planned workshop. Unfortunately, CLIVAR isn't able guaranteeing financial support for this planned joint event. They actually are in financial troubles and first need to sort out their budget for the coming period (see below). > We weren't > able to come to a view on this at the CLIVAR SSG Exec meeting as I > had hoped because of budget uncertainties both in terms of bids for > activities and the funds WCRP have available over the next biennium. > I have subsequently spoken to Valery Detemmerman about the > PAGES/CLIVAR Workshop. As you probably know, Valery looks after the > CLIVAR budget at the JPS for WCRP (I hold no funds for activities > here). She has the request noted but I'm afraid cannot commit until > there is more certain information about the whole WCRP and CLIVAR > budget situation. Rest assured that she is working on it. We will > get back to you on this as soon as we possibly can. so: what to do? We still have the 10k from PAGES available. Basically, there are two options: 1) postpone the event to 2007 - hoping that CLIVAR will be able to join. 2) holding a smaller event as originally planned in June 2006 (before or after the HOLIVAR meeting). We would then be restricted to include only a small group of participants, i.e. having from the key Labs / research groups one representative on board. Please let me know what you think! All the best and greetings from the PAGES office in Bern! Christoph -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4770. 2005-10-19 18:47:11 ______________________________________________________ cc: date: Wed, 19 Oct 2005 18:47:11 -0700 from: "Williams, Larry" subject: FW: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: , , , , , Gentlemen: It seems a happy coincidence has happened. With Joel Smith's help I have been searching for many months for a way support a workshop on climate variability. Armed with sufficient budget I have been somewhat surprised at the difficulty of finding scientific talent willing to take on this task. The main problem has been that there are two significant efforts going on in this area that have the experts fully engaged. Between the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the US Climate Change Science Program everyone who could contribute to this type of workshop seems to be fully loaded (burnt out?) and not very interested in yet another set of meetings. So when I read over the draft CLIVAR/PAGES Workshop 2006 I was very pleased to see an agenda that would fit our needs very well. The general scientific thrust outlined in your draft is right on target. The additional benefits from our point of view are: 1. excellent scientific leadership 2. excellent proposed attendees (I recognize many-not all-names on your list) 3. workshop leading to peer-reviewed paper. 4. cosponsorship by other funders-not just EPRI providing the budget The main additional features that I would like to propose would be: 4. brief report on the workshop (cut and paste from the paper?) with an emphasis on creating a list of the most important researchable topics needed to advance the field. The main objective of this report and list would be to use it as a guide for EPRI in funding follow-on research in this area. We can discuss this further at some later time. 5. Acknowledgement of Electric Power Research Institute financial support in the paper and for the meeting. Let me give you a brief explanation of why we are interested in supporting your workshop. In the 90's we had a significant component of climate change science research that we initiated and supported. We had strong involvement with NCAR through our MECCA project, a major carbon cycle project (Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project [CCMLP]-Colin Prentice, Martin Heiman, Fortunate Joos, and 6 teams of modelers from Europe and the US--see Section 3.6 of TAR for CCMLP references), the US based ecosystem (VEMAP I and II) project, and many other worthy science research efforts. Financial difficulties for the US electric industry during this period eroded our science budget and these projects gradually came to an end. Things are looking better now and we want to get back in the business of supporting excellent climate change science research. This workshop could be an entry point for us to a new period of support for good science. Let me know if EPRI support for your workshop seems feasible from your point of view. If it does we can discuss the next steps on how to proceed. Best Regards, Larry Williams Larry Williams, Ph.D. Senior Technical Manager Global Climate Electric Power Research Institute Office: 650-855-2695 Fax: 650-855-2950 [1]ljwillia@epri.com ______________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Wed 10/19/2005 8:13 AM To: Joel Smith Cc: Christoph Kull; Keith Briffa; Michael E. Mann; Heinz Wanner; Thorsten Kiefer Subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop > Joel, The workshop outline is attached. As I said on the phone, I'll be away tomorrow and Friday. PAGES have their support of 10K$ (US) for this and were hoping CLIVAR could match this. CLIVAR has come back and told us that their budget situation isn't good at the moment, and hope for better things later. At the moment we are wondering whether we will go ahead with a smaller workshop. These type of meetings need to be arranged some time in advance because of people's diaries and possible fieldwork commitments. The timing next June was to take advantage of another meeting in London, so we could get North Americans and others slightly cheaper. We also thought the Bernese Oberland in June would also tempt people, together with the excellent list of people we'd put together. Only the organizing committee (this email list) know of the meeting, as we've not approached the majority of the list to check availability. Email Christoph and the others if you're interested. I'm sure emphases can be changed somewhat, but the main thrust is model/data comparisons with respect to past variability. Emphasis would be on temperature, but we'd also look at variability of features such as ENSO, the NAO etc. We've all been to many meetings and know that numbers of 20-30 work best, along with lots of discussion and relatively few presentations. Best Regards Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\P-C-workshop_final2.doc" 5012. 2005-10-20 12:14:40 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 12:14:40 +0100 from: "IC Prentice, Earth Sciences" subject: Re: Thank you to: Rachel Brazil , k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, Andy Rowell , v@vparry.co.uk, john.f.mitchell@metoffice.gov.uk Rachel, Not solar *radiation* as such, remember, but b****** cosmic rays.... Nevertheless, I enjoyed yesterday evening. And everyone else's questions made sense! Colin --On Thursday, October 20, 2005 12:00 pm +0100 Rachel Brazil wrote: > > > Dear All, > > > > Thank you very much for participating in our seminar yesterday - I hope > you all felt that it was worthwhile. We certainly felt that the event was > a success. > > > > If you would like us to cover your travel expenses, please send me the > receipts (and bank details if you would like the money paid directly into > your account, or otherwise the address you would like the cheque sent > to). > > > > We had a few request for copies of the presentations, so if you don't > mind, could I request a copy of your PowerPoint presentations to send to > these people (only about 3 or 4 requests). The presentations will also be > very useful for myself as I will be writing up a report of the seminar. > You may have seen copies of reports from our previous seminars at the > registration desk. This will probably be ready in January or February -- > I'll send you all a draft to check through beforehand. > > > > Lastly, I'm not sure if any of you were listening to Radio 4 last night > -- but bizarrely, they interviewed Piers Corbyn -- the guy from Weather > Action who thinks its all to do with solar radiation. > > http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/worldtonight/ > > I think you can re-listen until next Wednesday! > > > > > > Thanks again -- best wishes > > > > Rachel > > ____________________________________________ > > Dr Rachel Brazil > > Manager, Materials Chemistry > > Royal Society of Chemistry, Burlington House > > Piccadilly, London, W1J 0BA UK > > Tel +44 (0) 20 7440 3305 Fax +44 (0) 20 7734 1227 > > www.rsc.org and www.chemsoc.org > > > > ___________________________________________ > > Dr Rachel Brazil MRSC > > Manager, Materials Chemistry > > > > Royal Society of Chemistry, Burlington House > > Piccadilly, London, W1J 0BA UK > > Tel +44 (0) 20 7440 3305 > > Fax +44 (0) 20 7734 1227 > > www.rsc.org and www.chemsoc.org > > > > For news and information, visit the Materials Chemistry Gateway: > www.rsc.org/materialschemistry > > > > > > > DISCLAIMER: > > This communication (including any attachments) is intended for the use of > the addressee only and may contain confidential, privileged or copyright > material. It may not be relied upon or disclosed to any other person > without the consent of the RSC. If you have received it in error, please > contact us immediately. Any advice given by the RSC has been carefully > formulated but is necessarily based on the information available, and the > RSC cannot be held responsible for accuracy or completeness. In this > respect, the RSC owes no duty of care and shall not be liable for any > resulting damage or loss. The RSC acknowledges that a disclaimer cannot > restrict liability at law for personal injury or death arising through a > finding of negligence. The RSC does not warrant that its emails or > attachments are Virus-free: Please rely on your own screening. > ---------------------- IC Prentice, Earth Sciences Colin.Prentice@bristol.ac.uk 2180. 2005-10-20 13:23:57 ______________________________________________________ cc: Heinz Wanner , k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, Christoph Kull , p.jones@uea.ac.uk date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 13:23:57 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop - past millennia variability to: Thorsten Kiefer HI Thorsten, Thanks for the update and summary. Having the endorsement of EPPRI for this could actually be helpful. There is nothing intrinsically anti-industry about the science (though some may feel there is), and so having EPPRI's stamp of approval could be helpful for both us and the broader community. My Ph.D advisor (Barry Saltzman) got significant support from EPPRI through the years, and he never fealt that they in any way tried to place any constraints on what he did, published, etc... I personally don't see a problem with this. But I'm interested in how others feel... mike Thorsten Kiefer wrote: > Dear colleagues, > > I discussed the options with Heinz today and had spoken yesterday with > Christoph (who is now travelling), so can summarise a PAGES viewpoint. > - We agreed with the opinions articulated so far that postponing the > workshop should be avoided in order to preserve the momentum. Also, > there would be no guarantee for financial support by CLIVAR somewhat > later. > - To preserve the initial good concept, CLIVAR should remain on board, > assuming they want to. > > Currently, the resulting options for continuing as planned are to > downscale the workshop to the 10k PAGES support or, thanks to Phil's > mediation, to accept co-sponsoring by EPRI. Based on the > recommendations to and comments of Phil, the background information > from Larry Williams, and some study of their website we are in > principal open for such a partnership. Maybe unsurprisingly, EPRI > seems to have a general philosophy of handing climate change by > adaptation rather than mitigation, on which not everyone may agree. On > the other hand, this is beyond our objectives of reconstructing and > understanding climate change. Nevetheless, in the light of this, > points that we think needed clarifying and assuring are > 1) that the science remains independent. > 2) that the credibility of the group and the results does not suffer > from industry-related sponsoring. > > If these two points can be dealt with, then this could be a good > opportunity to get the initiative going. Keith and Mike, it would be > important to have your opinions on this. It is clear that all of us > addressed here had to be comfortable with EPRI sponsoring and the way > this is handled. If we are, then we should also get consent from > CLIVAR and the CLIVAR/PAGES leaders Andrew Weaver and Eystein Jansen. > > With kind regards, > Thorsten > > > > On 8 Oct, 2005, at 12:50, Heinz Wanner wrote: > >> Dear colleagues, >> >> thanks for your messages. I will not comment the different >> suggestions but >> discuss it within the PAGES group in Bern and let you know our ideas >> next >> week. My opinion is that we should not loose too much time. >> >> Kind regards, Heinz >> --------------------------------------------------------------- >> Dr. Heinz Wanner, Prof., Director of NCCR >> (National Center of Competence in Research in Climate) >> --------------------------------------------------------------- >> >> Office Institute of Geography: Office NCCR Climate: >> >> Institute of Geography NCCR Climate >> Climatology and Meteorology Management Center >> Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a >> CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern >> >> Phone +41 (0)31 631 8885 Phone +41 (0)31 631 3160 >> Fax +41 (0)31 631 8511 Fax +41 (0)31 631 4383 >> >> www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch >> >> e-mail: heinz.wanner@giub.unibe.ch >> --------------------------------------------------------------- >> >> > --------------------------------------------------------------------- > Thorsten Kiefer > PAGES International Project Office > Sulgeneckstrasse 38, CH-3007 Bern, Switzerland > tel: +41-(0)31-312 3154 > fax: +41-(0)31-312 3168 > kiefer@pages.unibe.ch > http://www.pages-igbp.org/ > --------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 2962. 2005-10-24 05:53:43 ______________________________________________________ cc: p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, mann@psu.edu, wanner@giub.unibe.ch, thorsten.kiefer@pages.unibe.ch date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 05:53:43 -0700 from: Andrew Weaver subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: Eystein Jansen , Christoph Kull Seems like an excellent and creative idea! Cheers andrew > Hi, > this seems very good to me. Since Phil has this > contact I am sure there are no hidden strings > associated. > > Eystein > > > At 11:12 +0200 24-10-05, Christoph Kull wrote: >> Dear Andrew, dear Eystein, >> While organizing the planned PAGES/CLIVAR workshop on past millennia >> variability we asked CLIVAR to financially contribute in a similar way as >> already approved by PAGES (10k). Unfortunately, CLIVAR's budget situation >> seems to be quite difficult, and therefore CLIVAR isn't able to provide the >> expected support. While discussing what to do, Phil Jones brought a >> possibility up to discussion that seems to be very promising - Thanks a lot >> Phil!!! >> >> As seen below, EPRI ( Electric Power Research Institute) could become a >> co-organizer. This looks like a really good idea to proceed with the >> organization of this event! We therefore would like to inform you about the >> development and would like to get some feedback from you as PAGES/CLIVAR >> foci leaders in order to afterwards proceed with the event organization. >> See the emails below for further information on the planned / suggested EPRI >> involvement. >> >> Please let me know by Wednesday your comments! >> >> >> All the best, thanks a lot! >> Cheers, >> Christoph >> -- >> Christoph Kull >> Science Officer >> PAGES IPO >> Sulgeneckstrasse 38 >> CH-3007 Bern >> Switzerland >> >> phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 >> fax: +4131 312 31 68 >> >> ------ Forwarded Message >>> From: "Williams, Larry" >>> Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2005 18:47:11 -0700 >>> To: , , >>> , , , >>> >>> Cc: >>> Subject: FW: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop >>> >>> Gentlemen: >>> >>> It seems a happy coincidence has happened. With Joel Smith's help I have >>> been searching for many months for a way support a workshop on climate >>> variability. Armed with sufficient budget I have been somewhat surprised >>> at the difficulty of finding scientific talent willing to take on this >>> task. The main problem has been that there are two significant efforts >>> going on in this area that have the experts fully engaged. Between the >>> Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the US Climate Change Science >>> Program everyone who could contribute to this type of workshop seems to >>> be fully loaded (burnt out?) and not very interested in yet another set >>> of meetings. >>> >>> So when I read over the draft CLIVAR/PAGES Workshop 2006 I was very >>> pleased to see an agenda that would fit our needs very well. The general >>> scientific thrust outlined in your draft is right on target. The >>> additional benefits from our point of view are: >>> 1. excellent scientific leadership >>> 2. excellent proposed attendees (I recognize many-not all-names on >>> your list) >>> 3. workshop leading to peer-reviewed paper. >>> 4. cosponsorship by other funders-not just EPRI providing the budget >>> >>> The main additional features that I would like to propose would be: >>> 4. brief report on the workshop (cut and paste from the paper?) with >>> an emphasis on creating a list of the most important researchable topics >>> needed to advance the field. The main objective of this report and list >>> would be to use it as a guide for EPRI in funding follow-on research in >>> this area. We can discuss this further at some later time. >>> 5. Acknowledgement of Electric Power Research Institute financial >>> support in the paper and for the meeting. >>> >>> Let me give you a brief explanation of why we are interested in >>> supporting your workshop. In the 90's we had a significant component of >>> climate change science research that we initiated and supported. We had >>> strong involvement with NCAR through our MECCA project, a major carbon >>> cycle project (Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project [CCMLP]-Colin >>> Prentice, Martin Heiman, Fortunate Joos, and 6 teams of modelers from >>> Europe and the US--see Section 3.6 of TAR for CCMLP references), the US >>> based ecosystem (VEMAP I and II) project, and many other worthy science >>> research efforts. Financial difficulties for the US electric industry >>> during this period eroded our science budget and these projects >>> gradually came to an end. Things are looking better now and we want to >>> get back in the business of supporting excellent climate change science >>> research. This workshop could be an entry point for us to a new period >>> of support for good science. >>> >>> Let me know if EPRI support for your workshop seems feasible from your >>> point of view. If it does we can discuss the next steps on how to >>> proceed. >>> >>> Best Regards, >>> >>> Larry Williams >>> >>> Larry Williams, Ph.D. >>> Senior Technical Manager Global Climate >>> Electric Power Research Institute >>> Office: 650-855-2695 >>> Fax: 650-855-2950 >>> ljwillia@epri.com >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ________________________________ >>> >>> From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] >>> Sent: Wed 10/19/2005 8:13 AM >>> To: Joel Smith >>> Cc: Christoph Kull; Keith Briffa; Michael E. Mann; Heinz Wanner; >>> Thorsten Kiefer >>> Subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>> Joel, >>> The workshop outline is attached. As I said on the phone, I'll be >>> away tomorrow and Friday. PAGES have their support of 10K$ (US) >>> for this and were hoping CLIVAR could match this. CLIVAR has >>> come back and told us that their budget situation isn't good at the >>> moment, and hope for better things later. At the moment >>> we are wondering whether we will go ahead with a smaller >>> workshop. These type of meetings need to be arranged some >>> time in advance because of people's diaries and possible fieldwork >>> commitments. The timing next June was to take advantage of >>> another meeting in London, so we could get North Americans and >>> others slightly cheaper. We also thought the Bernese Oberland in >>> June would also tempt people, together with the excellent list of >>> people we'd put together. >>> >>> Only the organizing committee (this email list) know of the >>> meeting, >>> as we've not approached the majority of the list to check >>> availability. >>> >>> Email Christoph and the others if you're interested. I'm sure >>> emphases >>> can be changed somewhat, but the main thrust is model/data comparisons >>> with respect to past variability. Emphasis would be on temperature, >>> but >>> we'd also look at variability of features such as ENSO, the NAO etc. >>> We've >>> all been to many meetings and know that numbers of 20-30 work best, >>> along with lots of discussion and relatively few presentations. >>> >>> Best Regards >>> >>> Phil >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Prof. Phil Jones >>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>> University of East Anglia >>> Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>> NR4 7TJ >>> UK >>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ >>> ---- >>> >>> >> >> ------ End of Forwarded Message >> >> >> Attachment converted: Nebbiolo:P-C-workshop_final 1.doc (WDBN/«IC») >> (0067F418) > > > -- > ______________________________________________________________ > Eystein Jansen > Professor/Director > Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and > Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen > Allégaten 55 > N-5007 Bergen > NORWAY > e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no > Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 > Fax: +47-55-584330 ============================================================================ Mailing Address: | Courier Address: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Weaver | Andrew Weaver School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria | at Ian Stewart Complex, Room 296a PO Box 3055 | University of Victoria Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6 | 3964 Gordon Head Road Canada | Victoria, BC, V8N 3X3, Canada ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- email: weaver@uvic.ca | Tel: (250) 472-4001 http://climate.uvic.ca | Fax: (250) 472-4004 ============================================================================ 243. 2005-10-24 08:59:00 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Christoph Kull , p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, wanner@giub.unibe.ch, thorsten.kiefer@pages.unibe.ch date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 08:59:00 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: Andrew Weaver I like the idea as well... Mike Andrew Weaver wrote: Seems like an excellent and creative idea! Cheers andrew Hi, this seems very good to me. Since Phil has this contact I am sure there are no hidden strings associated. Eystein At 11:12 +0200 24-10-05, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear Andrew, dear Eystein, While organizing the planned PAGES/CLIVAR workshop on past millennia variability we asked CLIVAR to financially contribute in a similar way as already approved by PAGES (10k). Unfortunately, CLIVAR's budget situation seems to be quite difficult, and therefore CLIVAR isn't able to provide the expected support. While discussing what to do, Phil Jones brought a possibility up to discussion that seems to be very promising - Thanks a lot Phil!!! As seen below, EPRI ( Electric Power Research Institute) could become a co-organizer. This looks like a really good idea to proceed with the organization of this event! We therefore would like to inform you about the development and would like to get some feedback from you as PAGES/CLIVAR foci leaders in order to afterwards proceed with the event organization. See the emails below for further information on the planned / suggested EPRI involvement. Please let me know by Wednesday your comments! All the best, thanks a lot! Cheers, Christoph -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 ------ Forwarded Message From: "Williams, Larry" [1] Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2005 18:47:11 -0700 To: [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7] Cc: [8] Subject: FW: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop Gentlemen: It seems a happy coincidence has happened. With Joel Smith's help I have been searching for many months for a way support a workshop on climate variability. Armed with sufficient budget I have been somewhat surprised at the difficulty of finding scientific talent willing to take on this task. The main problem has been that there are two significant efforts going on in this area that have the experts fully engaged. Between the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the US Climate Change Science Program everyone who could contribute to this type of workshop seems to be fully loaded (burnt out?) and not very interested in yet another set of meetings. So when I read over the draft CLIVAR/PAGES Workshop 2006 I was very pleased to see an agenda that would fit our needs very well. The general scientific thrust outlined in your draft is right on target. The additional benefits from our point of view are: 1. excellent scientific leadership 2. excellent proposed attendees (I recognize many-not all-names on your list) 3. workshop leading to peer-reviewed paper. 4. cosponsorship by other funders-not just EPRI providing the budget The main additional features that I would like to propose would be: 4. brief report on the workshop (cut and paste from the paper?) with an emphasis on creating a list of the most important researchable topics needed to advance the field. The main objective of this report and list would be to use it as a guide for EPRI in funding follow-on research in this area. We can discuss this further at some later time. 5. Acknowledgement of Electric Power Research Institute financial support in the paper and for the meeting. Let me give you a brief explanation of why we are interested in supporting your workshop. In the 90's we had a significant component of climate change science research that we initiated and supported. We had strong involvement with NCAR through our MECCA project, a major carbon cycle project (Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project [CCMLP]-Colin Prentice, Martin Heiman, Fortunate Joos, and 6 teams of modelers from Europe and the US--see Section 3.6 of TAR for CCMLP references), the US based ecosystem (VEMAP I and II) project, and many other worthy science research efforts. Financial difficulties for the US electric industry during this period eroded our science budget and these projects gradually came to an end. Things are looking better now and we want to get back in the business of supporting excellent climate change science research. This workshop could be an entry point for us to a new period of support for good science. Let me know if EPRI support for your workshop seems feasible from your point of view. If it does we can discuss the next steps on how to proceed. Best Regards, Larry Williams Larry Williams, Ph.D. Senior Technical Manager Global Climate Electric Power Research Institute Office: 650-855-2695 Fax: 650-855-2950 [9]ljwillia@epri.com [10] ________________________________ From: Phil Jones [[11]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Wed 10/19/2005 8:13 AM To: Joel Smith Cc: Christoph Kull; Keith Briffa; Michael E. Mann; Heinz Wanner; Thorsten Kiefer Subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop Joel, The workshop outline is attached. As I said on the phone, I'll be away tomorrow and Friday. PAGES have their support of 10K$ (US) for this and were hoping CLIVAR could match this. CLIVAR has come back and told us that their budget situation isn't good at the moment, and hope for better things later. At the moment we are wondering whether we will go ahead with a smaller workshop. These type of meetings need to be arranged some time in advance because of people's diaries and possible fieldwork commitments. The timing next June was to take advantage of another meeting in London, so we could get North Americans and others slightly cheaper. We also thought the Bernese Oberland in June would also tempt people, together with the excellent list of people we'd put together. Only the organizing committee (this email list) know of the meeting, as we've not approached the majority of the list to check availability. Email Christoph and the others if you're interested. I'm sure emphases can be changed somewhat, but the main thrust is model/data comparisons with respect to past variability. Emphasis would be on temperature, but we'd also look at variability of features such as ENSO, the NAO etc. We've all been to many meetings and know that numbers of 20-30 work best, along with lots of discussion and relatively few presentations. Best Regards Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [12]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- ------ End of Forwarded Message Attachment converted: Nebbiolo:P-C-workshop_final 1.doc (WDBN/«IC») (0067F418) -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: [13]eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 ============================================================================ Mailing Address: | Courier Address: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Andrew Weaver | Andrew Weaver School of Earth and Ocean Sciences | School of Earth and Ocean Sciences University of Victoria | at Ian Stewart Complex, Room 296a PO Box 3055 | University of Victoria Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6 | 3964 Gordon Head Road Canada | Victoria, BC, V8N 3X3, Canada ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- email: [14]weaver@uvic.ca | Tel: (250) 472-4001 [15]http://climate.uvic.ca | Fax: (250) 472-4004 ============================================================================ -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [16]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [17]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 3692. 2005-10-24 10:56:24 ______________________________________________________ cc: jsmith@stratusconsulting.com, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, mann@psu.edu, wanner@giub.unibe.ch, thorsten.kiefer@pages.unibe.ch date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 10:56:24 +0200 from: Christoph Kull subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: "Williams, Larry" Dear Larry, First of all, thanks a lot for the positive comments and feedback! Also the organizing committee appreciate this unique chance to booster research, collaboration and communication in that scientifically hot thematic of Climate Change! Therefore, we are very pleased about the opportunity getting EPRI as a partner on board for organizing this event! Nevertheless, we still need some time to communicate and discuss this plan within the respective Scientific Steering Group of PAGES/CLIVAR. I am looking forward getting back to you this week with a definitive, (hopefully and most likely) positive reply about co-organizing this "Past Millennia Workshop" in June 2006 in the Swiss Alps. We may afterwards discuss further issues more in detail. Thanks a lot for you offer and help! All the best and greetings from Bern, Christoph On 20.10.2005 03:47, "Williams, Larry" wrote: > Gentlemen: > > It seems a happy coincidence has happened. With Joel Smith's help I have > been searching for many months for a way support a workshop on climate > variability. Armed with sufficient budget I have been somewhat surprised > at the difficulty of finding scientific talent willing to take on this > task. The main problem has been that there are two significant efforts > going on in this area that have the experts fully engaged. Between the > Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the US Climate Change Science > Program everyone who could contribute to this type of workshop seems to > be fully loaded (burnt out?) and not very interested in yet another set > of meetings. > > So when I read over the draft CLIVAR/PAGES Workshop 2006 I was very > pleased to see an agenda that would fit our needs very well. The general > scientific thrust outlined in your draft is right on target. The > additional benefits from our point of view are: > 1. excellent scientific leadership > 2. excellent proposed attendees (I recognize many-not all-names on > your list) > 3. workshop leading to peer-reviewed paper. > 4. cosponsorship by other funders-not just EPRI providing the budget > > The main additional features that I would like to propose would be: > 4. brief report on the workshop (cut and paste from the paper?) with > an emphasis on creating a list of the most important researchable topics > needed to advance the field. The main objective of this report and list > would be to use it as a guide for EPRI in funding follow-on research in > this area. We can discuss this further at some later time. > 5. Acknowledgement of Electric Power Research Institute financial > support in the paper and for the meeting. > > Let me give you a brief explanation of why we are interested in > supporting your workshop. In the 90's we had a significant component of > climate change science research that we initiated and supported. We had > strong involvement with NCAR through our MECCA project, a major carbon > cycle project (Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project [CCMLP]-Colin > Prentice, Martin Heiman, Fortunate Joos, and 6 teams of modelers from > Europe and the US--see Section 3.6 of TAR for CCMLP references), the US > based ecosystem (VEMAP I and II) project, and many other worthy science > research efforts. Financial difficulties for the US electric industry > during this period eroded our science budget and these projects > gradually came to an end. Things are looking better now and we want to > get back in the business of supporting excellent climate change science > research. This workshop could be an entry point for us to a new period > of support for good science. > > Let me know if EPRI support for your workshop seems feasible from your > point of view. If it does we can discuss the next steps on how to > proceed. > > Best Regards, > > Larry Williams > > Larry Williams, Ph.D. > Senior Technical Manager Global Climate > Electric Power Research Institute > Office: 650-855-2695 > Fax: 650-855-2950 > ljwillia@epri.com > > > > > > ________________________________ > > From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: Wed 10/19/2005 8:13 AM > To: Joel Smith > Cc: Christoph Kull; Keith Briffa; Michael E. Mann; Heinz Wanner; > Thorsten Kiefer > Subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop > > > > >> Joel, > The workshop outline is attached. As I said on the phone, I'll be > away tomorrow and Friday. PAGES have their support of 10K$ (US) > for this and were hoping CLIVAR could match this. CLIVAR has > come back and told us that their budget situation isn't good at the > moment, and hope for better things later. At the moment > we are wondering whether we will go ahead with a smaller > workshop. These type of meetings need to be arranged some > time in advance because of people's diaries and possible fieldwork > commitments. The timing next June was to take advantage of > another meeting in London, so we could get North Americans and > others slightly cheaper. We also thought the Bernese Oberland in > June would also tempt people, together with the excellent list of > people we'd put together. > > Only the organizing committee (this email list) know of the > meeting, > as we've not approached the majority of the list to check > availability. > > Email Christoph and the others if you're interested. I'm sure > emphases > can be changed somewhat, but the main thrust is model/data comparisons > with respect to past variability. Emphasis would be on temperature, > but > we'd also look at variability of features such as ENSO, the NAO etc. > We've > all been to many meetings and know that numbers of 20-30 work best, > along with lots of discussion and relatively few presentations. > > Best Regards > > Phil > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > ---- > > -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 882. 2005-10-24 11:12:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, mann@psu.edu, wanner@giub.unibe.ch, thorsten.kiefer@pages.unibe.ch date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 11:12:12 +0200 from: Christoph Kull subject: FW: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: Andrew Weaver , Eystein Jansen Dear Andrew, dear Eystein, While organizing the planned PAGES/CLIVAR workshop on past millennia variability we asked CLIVAR to financially contribute in a similar way as already approved by PAGES (10k). Unfortunately, CLIVAR's budget situation seems to be quite difficult, and therefore CLIVAR isn't able to provide the expected support. While discussing what to do, Phil Jones brought a possibility up to discussion that seems to be very promising - Thanks a lot Phil!!! As seen below, EPRI ( Electric Power Research Institute) could become a co-organizer. This looks like a really good idea to proceed with the organization of this event! We therefore would like to inform you about the development and would like to get some feedback from you as PAGES/CLIVAR foci leaders in order to afterwards proceed with the event organization. See the emails below for further information on the planned / suggested EPRI involvement. Please let me know by Wednesday your comments! All the best, thanks a lot! Cheers, Christoph -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 ------ Forwarded Message > From: "Williams, Larry" > Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2005 18:47:11 -0700 > To: , , > , , , > > Cc: > Subject: FW: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop > > Gentlemen: > > It seems a happy coincidence has happened. With Joel Smith's help I have > been searching for many months for a way support a workshop on climate > variability. Armed with sufficient budget I have been somewhat surprised > at the difficulty of finding scientific talent willing to take on this > task. The main problem has been that there are two significant efforts > going on in this area that have the experts fully engaged. Between the > Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and the US Climate Change Science > Program everyone who could contribute to this type of workshop seems to > be fully loaded (burnt out?) and not very interested in yet another set > of meetings. > > So when I read over the draft CLIVAR/PAGES Workshop 2006 I was very > pleased to see an agenda that would fit our needs very well. The general > scientific thrust outlined in your draft is right on target. The > additional benefits from our point of view are: > 1. excellent scientific leadership > 2. excellent proposed attendees (I recognize many-not all-names on > your list) > 3. workshop leading to peer-reviewed paper. > 4. cosponsorship by other funders-not just EPRI providing the budget > > The main additional features that I would like to propose would be: > 4. brief report on the workshop (cut and paste from the paper?) with > an emphasis on creating a list of the most important researchable topics > needed to advance the field. The main objective of this report and list > would be to use it as a guide for EPRI in funding follow-on research in > this area. We can discuss this further at some later time. > 5. Acknowledgement of Electric Power Research Institute financial > support in the paper and for the meeting. > > Let me give you a brief explanation of why we are interested in > supporting your workshop. In the 90's we had a significant component of > climate change science research that we initiated and supported. We had > strong involvement with NCAR through our MECCA project, a major carbon > cycle project (Carbon Cycle Model Linkage Project [CCMLP]-Colin > Prentice, Martin Heiman, Fortunate Joos, and 6 teams of modelers from > Europe and the US--see Section 3.6 of TAR for CCMLP references), the US > based ecosystem (VEMAP I and II) project, and many other worthy science > research efforts. Financial difficulties for the US electric industry > during this period eroded our science budget and these projects > gradually came to an end. Things are looking better now and we want to > get back in the business of supporting excellent climate change science > research. This workshop could be an entry point for us to a new period > of support for good science. > > Let me know if EPRI support for your workshop seems feasible from your > point of view. If it does we can discuss the next steps on how to > proceed. > > Best Regards, > > Larry Williams > > Larry Williams, Ph.D. > Senior Technical Manager Global Climate > Electric Power Research Institute > Office: 650-855-2695 > Fax: 650-855-2950 > ljwillia@epri.com > > > > > > ________________________________ > > From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: Wed 10/19/2005 8:13 AM > To: Joel Smith > Cc: Christoph Kull; Keith Briffa; Michael E. Mann; Heinz Wanner; > Thorsten Kiefer > Subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop > > > > >> Joel, > The workshop outline is attached. As I said on the phone, I'll be > away tomorrow and Friday. PAGES have their support of 10K$ (US) > for this and were hoping CLIVAR could match this. CLIVAR has > come back and told us that their budget situation isn't good at the > moment, and hope for better things later. At the moment > we are wondering whether we will go ahead with a smaller > workshop. These type of meetings need to be arranged some > time in advance because of people's diaries and possible fieldwork > commitments. The timing next June was to take advantage of > another meeting in London, so we could get North Americans and > others slightly cheaper. We also thought the Bernese Oberland in > June would also tempt people, together with the excellent list of > people we'd put together. > > Only the organizing committee (this email list) know of the > meeting, > as we've not approached the majority of the list to check > availability. > > Email Christoph and the others if you're interested. I'm sure > emphases > can be changed somewhat, but the main thrust is model/data comparisons > with respect to past variability. Emphasis would be on temperature, > but > we'd also look at variability of features such as ENSO, the NAO etc. > We've > all been to many meetings and know that numbers of 20-30 work best, > along with lots of discussion and relatively few presentations. > > Best Regards > > Phil > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > ---- > > ------ End of Forwarded Message Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\P-C-workshop_final3.doc" 2948. 2005-10-24 18:23:55 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Oct 24 18:23:55 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Proxy data question to: Nicola.Williams@uea.ac.uk Nicola it is , as you imply, only "useful" to look at proxies before the availability of climate data - as they are meant to give some information on climate when we have no other - ie they are used as palaeoclimatic substitutes. Yes , one needs to compare them with the "target" climate to be able to judge how well or poorly this substitution is . The formal regression procedures involved in "calibrating" and "verifying the calibration results" provide insight into how well the inferences on past climate are likely to stand up (as shown by quantified uncertainty bounds on our reconstructions ) - provided of course that the "uniformitarian principle is maintained. The reason Mann only used the proxies up until about 1980 , is because they did not extend through to the present day at many sites , and 1980 was a convenient cut off to use in his calibration . So we can not say how well the proxies would mimic the recent (post 1980) warming. This is the point I stressed in my lecture - that we need to update many crucial proxies , and then test the relationships we have derived for retrodicting climate - by using them to estimate the warming in different areas (and the globe) in the last 20 years and comparing the estimates with measured reality.This is likely to be a harsh test and will likely show that we may underestimate the true magnitude of the warming - but whether to an extent that exceeds the calculated uncertainty in the past regression estimates is a moot point. At 17:37 24/10/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, I hvae a question related to your lecture and the M525 coursework which I wondered if you could help me with. How recently are proxy indicators (specifically tree rings) used as a record of climate? What I mean is, can proxy records be used for the last 20 years? I realise there is instrumental data for this period but is it possible to use proxy data to look at temperature in this most recent period as well? Does it match with the instrumental record for this period? I think I read in Mann et al 1998 that it was only used up to 1980 - what is the reason for this, is the time lag between change and response this long? Hope that makes sense! Thanks for your help, Nikki Williams -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 5143. 2005-10-25 07:55:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 25 Oct 2005 07:55:59 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: IRI announcement: International conference to: cru.internal@uea.ac.uk Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2005 13:52:58 -0400 From: Maria Salgado User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-US; rv:1.7.2) Gecko/20040804 Netscape/7.2 (ax) X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: undisclosed-recipients:; Subject: IRI announcement: International conference X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.51 on 129.236.112.82 X-UEA-Spam-Score: 1.5 X-UEA-Spam-Level: + X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Dear colleagues and friends of IRI: This is to bring to your attention an international conference entitled: Living with Climate Variability and Change: Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risks, to be held in Espoo, Finland during July 17-21, 2006. The conference is being jointly sponsored by the Finnish Meteorological Service, the World Meteorological Organization, and the IRI. With a focus clearly on the management of climate related risks and opportunities, we believe this forum will provide a chance to review the progress, obstacles and future prospects for effective policy and practice in critical sectors such as agriculture, water resources, public health, and disasters. Attendance will include experts and practitioners in all of these areas. Please consider attending. A conference website has been established at: [1]www.livingwithclimate.fi. There you can also view and/or download the first announcement. A shortcut to that is: [2]http://www.livingwithclimate.fi/linked/en/Flyer.pdf More information will be posted to the website, and a second conference announcement will be forthcoming soon. With best regards, Stephen E. Zebiak Director-General International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) The Earth Institute at Columbia University 61 Rt. 9W, 128 Monell Building Palisades, NY 10964 Tel: 845-680-4497 Fax: 845-680-4866 email: [3]steve@iri.columbia.edu -- -- \ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4928. 2005-10-25 15:46:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Oct 25 15:46:44 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Review of Proposal - NE/D001463/1- CONFIDENTIAL to: paneld@nerc.ac.uk Sarah here is my assessment of the Huntley proposal . These are good people but I can not in conscience rate this as a high proposal in terms of blue skies research or strategic outcomes for future modelling of climate changes. Some of the work is worthy , but none is particularly novel and it can not be considered good value for money. I have to ask that this review be kept anonymous. Thank you. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------- Your Ref NE/D001463/1 Principal Investigator Professor B Huntley 1 No entry 2 Medium 3 Whole application 4 (a) alpha 3 What are the proposal's strengths The main attribute of the project is the expertise of the proposers in the fields of lake sourced Palaeoenvironmental data. Assembling the evidence of the past as a way of testing forest dynamics in a vegetation model is good in concept and the selection of the region and the types of proxies are as good as could be achieved in most regions. These strengths are undermined by limitations in the relevance of the likely outcomes to the proposers over-achieving goal. What are the proposal's weaknesses The over-arching goal of the proposal is stated as to improve knowledge and understanding of the rate and character of the response of Boreal and sub-Arctic ecotones to climate change, in order to improve parameterisation of seasonal albedo feedbacks in climate change models. The extent to which this is achievable depends on the relevance of the results for the chosen location to Arctic scale earth system models being used to predict climate change. The emphasis in the proposal is on one model LandClim which will operate at a spatial resolution far beyond the achievable resolution of all climate models being used to project climate change in fifty to one hundred years time. Typically these have a resolution of 2.5 degrees of latitude or about 250km. Even with an embedded high resolution regional model, (not routinely run in model projections), this would still likely be 50km or at very best 25kms. This virtually encompasses the entire range of the proposed study. The proposal does not make a convincing case for how the results of this localised vegetation modelling would impact on the design of current large modelling of future climate or vegetation schemes used by general circulation models. Besides mean climate, issues to do with the realistic simulation of extreme short lived or small scale events like frost day probability terrain influenced exposure and snow cover, or localised palludification must all influence germination and mortality of seedlings and must be parameterised in some way. The comparison of different estimates of local climate change produced by a range of different lake proxy data is of scientific value and comparing this evidence with indications of changing tree cover through time will also produce results that are of scientific use. Neither idea can be considered original. For an example see Heinrichs et al. in Boreas (2005) pages 192-206 or Lotter et al. in Palaeoclimatology (1997) pages 395-420, or Heiri et al. (2003) in Palaeo³ pages 35-53, or Seppa and Birks (2002) in Quaternary Research pages 191-199. A review of these and other work shows significant variability in even the major subdivisions of inferred Holocene climate or characteristic vegetation biomes in the north of Scandinavia. Apparent contradictions in the character and timing of transitions are probably the result of different sampling approaches and limited sensitivities in the available proxies, coupled with real dating uncertainties. Complex ecological changes in lake structure and the chemical and biological evolution of internal lake conditions can confound the simple interpretation of different biological proxies as monitors of external climate conditions. Climate estimates based on modern day training sets for specific proxies typically produce large uncertainty and past climate estimates might have uncertainty of an order equal to the magnitude of temperature change in this area during most of the Holocene. There is also likely to be additional significant uncertainty in the age-depth models for different lakes. Even if some tephras are reliably identified they will be likely associated with uncertainty of decades to centuries when the stratigraphic uncertainty in a particularly lake core sample is taken into account. See Pilcher et al in Boreas (2005) pages 136-156. All of the above will limit the accuracy and precision with which climate changes can be deduced or can be associated with tree cover changes but it will especially limit the degree to which inferences about the phasing and rapidity of tree distribution responses to rapid warming. The work is scientifically interesting but the reward can be considered medium as far as relevance for future climate modelling. The part of the work proposed that deals with simulation of present tree distribution using modern climate in the selected region, and comparison with satellite and detailed terrain mapping of trees on to GIS seems a useful preliminary exercise. This could act as a test of the model sensitivity to climate changes in temperature and precipitation that are well enough known over hundreds of years. Looking more widely at how well this model performs at different locations and climate across the northern tree line ecotone also seems more valuable preliminary exercise and one that should come before this paleo attempt at testing the model. In summary the considerable resources requested to develop very localised reconstructions of tree cover and basic climate for thousands of years is hard to justify when the likely impact of the results on future modelling studies is not likely to be great. Instead further sensitivity studies using a range of assumptions about localised albedo changes could be proposed using general circulation models or linking them to different vegetation models. (b) Fit to NERC priorities C (c) Risk Reward Medium for both Risk and Reward (d) Cost Effectiveness 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 2364. 2005-10-26 19:27:39 ______________________________________________________ cc: , , , , , date: Wed, 26 Oct 2005 19:27:39 -0700 from: "Williams, Larry" subject: RE: Past Millennia Workshop to: "Christoph Kull" Dear Christoph, It seems we are all in agreement and this is great news! The next steps should be straightforward. I am just back from a trip and will send you further comments tomorrow. Best wishes from cloudy Palo Alto California, Larry Larry Williams, Ph.D. Senior Technical Manager Global Climate Electric Power Research Institute Office: 650-855-2695 Fax: 650-855-2950 ljwillia@epri.com -----Original Message----- From: Christoph Kull [mailto:christoph.kull@pages.unibe.ch] Sent: Wednesday, October 26, 2005 6:04 AM To: Williams, Larry Cc: jsmith@stratusconsulting.com; p.jones@uea.ac.uk; k.briffa@uea.ac.uk; mann@psu.edu; wanner@giub.unibe.ch; thorsten.kiefer@pages.unibe.ch Subject: Past Millennia Workshop Dear Larry, I am happy to let you know that all involved persons (the organizing committee as well as the scientific steering committee leaders of PAGES/CLIVAR) are absolutely positive about the participation of EPRI in the organization of this event. Thanks a lot for your effort! The comments (see below), we received from your side about the scientific organization do absolutely match with our idea of this workshop. >> pleased to see an agenda that would fit our needs very well. The >> general scientific thrust outlined in your draft is right on target. >> The additional benefits from our point of view are: >> 1. excellent scientific leadership >> 2. excellent proposed attendees (I recognize many-not all-names on >> your list) >> 3. workshop leading to peer-reviewed paper. >> 4. cosponsorship by other funders-not just EPRI providing the >> budget >> >> The main additional features that I would like to propose would be: >> 4. brief report on the workshop (cut and paste from the paper?) >> with an emphasis on creating a list of the most important >> researchable topics needed to advance the field. The main objective >> of this report and list would be to use it as a guide for EPRI in >> funding follow-on research in this area. We can discuss this further at some later time. >> 5. Acknowledgement of Electric Power Research Institute financial >> support in the paper and for the meeting. Of course we will be able and happy to include the requested additional features (points 4 and 5 above). Please let me know if there are some other issues to discuss. Regarding the further process: - The scientific content of the workshop seems to be definitive. As you may imagine, it was quite a task merging the different ideas of how to best address this "hot topic". - also the location as well as the timing of the event are already fixed. There are two possibilities (7-10 June or 18-21 June, before or just after the Holivar meeting in London - www.holivar2006.org; dates may probably shift by one day). The event will be logistically organized by the PAGES IPO somewhere in the Bernese Oberland - Swiss Alps. Of course there are still a few points to discuss: - are you the primary EPRI contact for the further process in organizing the event and may I include you in the communication regarding the organization? - PAGES has a budget of 10k$ to support the workshop. There is of course quite a substantial contribution necessary if we plan to end up with 25 to 30 participants. Basically, we will have to plan the event depending on the available total funding. Do you already know how EPRI plans the support? - Once we have sorted out those details, we will have to contact the possible participants and quickly have to start with the logistical arrangements for the workshop venue. Anyway, we may figure out the organizational details bilaterally between EPRI and the PAGES office in the near future! Looking forward to a fruitful collaboration! All the best, thanks a lot and greetings from sunny Bern! Christoph Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 4398. 2005-11-02 13:35:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Nov 2 13:35:27 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: optimal detection to: Gerard van der Schrier Gerard just a note to say I am reading these messages and happy you are continuing along the lines you are - and especially appreciate the continuing work on the long PDSI data sets. Keith At 13:19 02/11/2005, you wrote: Keith & Tim, I've applied the optimal detection to the observed trend in sea-level over the 1990 as observed from satellites. The routine comes up with a best-guess estimate, which is negative, suggesting that the meridional heat transport at 30N decreased. This is consistent with some of the results we heard at the RAPID science meeting. The heat transport is still normalized, so I can't say yet how large (in percentage) the decrease is. The problem is: the best-guess amplitude is too small (or the error bars too large) to say with some confidence that the result is significantly different from zero. I actually expected the sea-level variability in HadCM3 to be less strong compared to the real world, feeding my hope that we might be able to detect a response significantly different from zero, but this turns out not be true. There are still one-or-two things I could try. E.g., I've taken now the *difference* in heat transport between 30N and 70N. Heat transport at 70N is ca. 10% of that at 30N. Moreover, the HadCM3 model seems to overestimate meridional heat transport at high latitudes. It might be a good idea to relate sea-level changes to heat transport at 30N only. Cheers, Gerard -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4835. 2005-11-03 10:42:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 03 Nov 2005 10:42:00 +0000 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Fwd: 2005GL024674 Request to Review from Geophysical Research to: Keith Briffa Keith - I've been asked to separately review this. Obviously we can't both agree to act as two separate reviewers. It's probably/possibly SO&P-funded, which might be seen as a conflict, though I'm sure we'd be as rigorous as ever! Though it sounds interesting, I'd say no due to lack to time (I've got a different manuscript to review at the moment). Cheers Tim At 10:40 01/11/2005, you wrote: >do WE wish to do this? >K >>X-Mailer: MIME::Lite 3.01 (F2.6; B2.11; Q2.03) >>Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2005 19:49:34 UT >>To: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk >>Subject: 2005GL024674 Request to Review from Geophysical Research Letters >>From: grlonline@agu.org >>Reply-To: amacinnes@agu.org >>X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.2 >>X-UEA-Spam-Level: / >>X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO >> >> >>Dear Dr. Briffa: >> >>Would you be willing and available to review "On the influence of >>undetrended calibrations of proxy-based climate reconstructions of >>the past centuries" by Eduardo Zorita, Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Hans >>von Storch, submitted for possible publication in the Geophysical >>Research Letters. >> >>The manuscript's abstract is: >> >> Statistical temperature reconstructions rely on the calibration >>of proxy indicators against instrumental temperatures, usually >>at interannual timescales. Calibrations may be accomplished with >>detrended or non-detrended data. >>Non-detrended calibration assumes that centennial trends in >>the proxies can be completely ascribed to 20th century climate >>change and that >>relationship between temperature and proxy trends is the same at >>interanual-decadal and centennial and longer timescales. >>A test of the validity of these assumptions is proposed that can be >>applied to all multiproxy methods. This test is illustrated in one >>regression-based reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere >>temperature (NHT) of the last centuries, showing that both >>assumptions are not fulfilled in this particular reconstruction. >>The influence of non-climate trends in the proxies (centennial >>noise) is explored analyzing pseudo-reconstructions in a >>simulation of the last millennium with a general circulation >>model. They are found to further contribute to the >>underestimation of the reconstructed NHT variations. >> >>If you agree to review this manuscript, I would ask for your >>comments within 14 days from your acceptance. >> >>To ACCEPT, click on the link below: >> >> >> >> >> >>If you are unable to review this manuscript at this time, I would >>appreciate any suggestions of other potential reviewers who would >>be qualified to examine this manuscript. (Via reply e-mail.) >> >>To DECLINE, click on the link below: >> >> >> >> >> >>If you have any questions or need more information feel free to >>reply to this e-mail. >> >>Thank you for your consideration and support of Geophysical Research Letters. >> >>Sincerely, >> >>Rangasayi Halthore >>Associate Editor >>Geophysical Research Letters > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 189. 2005-11-08 10:47:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Nov 8 10:47:59 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: IPCC and comment on von Storch et al./Mann et al. to: Gerd Bürger Thanks Gerd - this will definitely go in Keith At 09:48 08/11/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, would love reprints - suggested wording also welcome and will judge if/how to include suggested wording: Bürger et al. 2005 show that paleo-driven regression models strongly depend on the details of the data processing, finding an entire range of climate histories. This uncertainty can be traced back to an unjustified extrapolation of the regression laws beyond their calibration scale, a fact which is particularly critical for the parameter-loaded versions of the multiproxy type (cf. Bürger and Cubasch 2005). Bürger, G., I. Fast, and U. Cubasch, 2005. Climate reconstruction by regression - 32 variations on a theme. Tellus A, in the press. Bürger, G., and U. Cubasch, 2005. Are multiproxy climate reconstructions robust? Geoph. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2005GL024155 (in the press). Papers attached. Ciao, Gerd -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 153. 2005-11-08 10:48:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 08 Nov 2005 10:48:43 +0100 from: Gerd Bürger subject: Re: IPCC and comment on von Storch et al./Mann et al. to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, > would love reprints - suggested wording also welcome and will judge > if/how to include suggested wording: Bürger et al. 2005 show that paleo-driven regression models strongly depend on the details of the data processing, finding an entire range of climate histories. This uncertainty can be traced back to an unjustified extrapolation of the regression laws beyond their calibration scale, a fact which is particularly critical for the parameter-loaded versions of the multiproxy type (cf. Bürger and Cubasch 2005). Bürger, G., I. Fast, and U. Cubasch, 2005. Climate reconstruction by regression - 32 variations on a theme. Tellus A, in the press. Bürger, G., and U. Cubasch, 2005. Are multiproxy climate reconstructions robust? Geoph. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2005GL024155 (in the press). Papers attached. Ciao, Gerd Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Tellus1.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\grl.pdf" 4310. 2005-11-08 15:06:53 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Tue, 8 Nov 2005 15:06:53 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] FOD X-chapter issues and LA3 to: Fortunat Joos Hi Fortunat - we are saddened that you can't come to the LA3, particularly given your broad perspectives and links with the TS and SPM. Maybe something will happen to ease your other burdens and you can reconsider. If not, we'll work hard with the preparation you can send us in advance of the meeting - proposed responses to reviewer comments on parts of the chapter that you played a major role in. Also, it would be good to get your help with the issues you raise below (thanks very much for the list!). In particular... 1) will you send us (Eystein and Peck) the data for the GHC that we should ask Chap 2 to use? We'll also need the complete references (missing in FOD chap 6, as it turned out - can you send in endnote form?). We will engage w/ them, and suggest perhaps a plot that zooms in on the last 2000 years, and refs our fig for the Holocene. Can't have too much of this, and we discussed w/ Susan a while back. 2) "simple formulations to estimate LGM GHGs forcing from ice core GHGs concentrations . These have not been revised by chap 2 up to now." Can you work w/ chapter 2 on this, or ???? 3) good point too regarding "I believe that the ocean c-cycle sectin in chap. 7 needs a major rewrite." How do you recommend this get done? Are you the CA (chap 7) to do the job, or??? 4) we agree on the ocean acidification issue in chap 6, to the extent we have room. I don't think the paper(s) exist that will make this easy (e.g., on pre-Quaternary CO2 and calcification impacts - slow changes in CO2 shouldn't impact as much as fast changes, right? So maybe we could add something in our pre-Q box if there is useful information. OR into your section as another subsection/question? You want to do this job? Is there a CA candidate we could invite who might be a big help? 5) you suggest a good idea: "I suggest that we include also a table or at least some text describing the rates of change and magnitudes over different past period in the main text and have bullets in the executive summary on this in the SOD to back up the TS and the SPM. This is a bit complicated by the time resolution of the ice core and the life time of the GHGs which is especially short for methane (20yrs). Dominique and I need to work on rates of change in GHGs to see what we can say with which level of uncertainty, perhaps in collaboration with Renato Spahni who has an model describing the attenuation of atmosperic signals by the bubble close-off process in ice cores. We will probably also have a look what we can say in terms of GHG evolution earlier than 650 ka BP." Can you and Dom do it in time to show in New Zealand? Is there a way to make a figure that is more compelling that the table? That could be an award winner. ????? 6) It has been the plan to showcase the EPICA results instead of long Vostok in the figure, no? The question is... can we make the proposed new figure in time for vetting before New Zealand? Can you provide it, or is this another job for our man in Grenoble? Fortunat - thanks for helping with all this. We'd still love to see you in New Zealand, so if you change your mind, I'm sure we can arrange good wine and coffee! Thanks, Peck and Eystein. >Dear Chapter 6 team, > >Unfortunately, I am not able to make it to New Zealand. Coming back from >Boulder, I have to take my share of teaching here at the University. IPCC work >is continuing on a number of issues. Namely, contribution to the TS and SPM >writing process, scenario calculations with the >Bern Carbon Cycle-Climate Model >for chapter 10; we will shortly become new mitigation scenarios from chap. 3 >for evaluations. I will aim to go through the comments of the chap 6 section >that I have written and propose solutions before Christchurch. > >I have read and commented on the whole chapter >2, the majority of chap. 10, the >carbon cycle part of chap 7 and the BGC part of chap 5. A few issues to watch >are: > >- Chap 2: >Solar forcing. The present split between chap 2 >and 6 looks quite reasonable to >me. > >GHG forcing: chap 2 uses a very limited set of ice core data for CO2, CH4, and >N2O over the last millennium to produce question 2.1 figure 1 that shows the >evolution of GHGs over the last 2000 year. I suggest that chap 2 uses the same >data as chap 6 to produce such a figure or simply refers to our figure showing >the changes in GHGs over the Holocene. > >- simple formulations to estimate LGM GHGs forcing from ice core GHGs >concentrations . These have not been revised by chap 2 up to now. > >- Chap 7 >chap 7 has text linking back to the box on glacial-interglacial CO2 changes. >This looks fine at the moment. > >- chap 7 has text on various carbon cycle mechanisms and the ocean section >argues that the impact of ocean biology changes >on atm. CO2 is largely unknown. >This conflicts with what we say in chapter 6 and >with the story of the ice core >data. I believe that the ocean c-cycle sectin in >chap. 7 needs a major rewrite. > >- Ocean acidification: An issue not well covered >in TAR is ocean acidification. >Ocean acidification is an important issue. For example, it poses a threat to >the marine foodchain and the projected shoaling >of the lysocline threatens cold >water corals. There are some paleo studies on the issue, e.g., Pelejeros, >Science, 2005 using corals. There may also be >some useful information available >from the very deep past about possilbe mass >extinction of calcyfiying organisms. >Currently, ocean acidification is dealt with in >chap 7 from a process view point >and in chapter 5 looking at current observation. >I expect chapter 10 to include >a discussion and results on acidification in the SOD. I think we also should >take up the issue in chap 6 from a paleo perspective. > >As far as the chapter presentation in Beijing is concerned, I guess most is >covered by the available text and figures. > >Additional points that are not yet well covered are: > >- A table in the ZOD of the Technical Summary gives the rate of change in RF >for the major GHGs. The recent acceleration in >GHG forcing is quite impressive. >The TS also make some statements for how far back recent GHGs changes were >unprecedented in terms of magnitude and rate. Such statements were prominently >included in the SPM of the TAR and the TAR >synthesis report. I think the FOD is >too silent on rate of changes for GHGs. I suggest that we include also a table >or at least some text describing the rates of change and magnitudes over >different past period in the main text and have bullets in the executive >summary on this in the SOD to back up the TS and the SPM. This is a bit >complicated by the time resolution of the ice core and the life time of the >GHGs which is especially short for methane (20yrs). Dominique and I need to >work on rates of change in GHGs to see what we can say with which level of >uncertainty, perhaps in collaboration with Renato Spahni who has an model >describing the attenuation of atmosperic signals >by the bubble close-off process >in ice cores. We will probably also have a look >what we can say in terms of GHG >evolution earlier than 650 ka BP. > >- The new EPICA results should be included. > > >With best wishes, > >Fortunat > >Quoting Eystein Jansen : > >> >> Dear Chapter 6 Lead Authors: >> >> As many of you have just finished reading and >> commenting on the FOD, we will use this >> opportunity to ask you to think ahead to LA3 in >> Christchurch. The primary focus of the meeting >> will be on the comments received to our own >> chapter, but there will be a number of x-chapter >> issues and consistency issues we need to solve >> for the SOD. >> In order to have an effective meeting, we need to >> identify what the key issues we have concerning >> Ch 6 vs the other chapters. >> We would be grateful if you could send us your >> views on this within a week. Thus we can collate >> these and prepare ourselves and the other CLAs >> for the meeting. >> >> One more thing we would invite you to come back >> to us with is the following: As you remember >> there was in Beijing a plenary session in which > > some of the chapters presented their perspective >> on the newxt IPCC-report. In Christchurch it is >> our turn. Thus if you have views on what we >> should say, what we should present, nice >> illustrations etc., please send them so we can >> prepare. >> >> Looking forward to hear from you. >> >> Best wishes, >> peck and Eystein >> -- >> ______________________________________________________________ >> Eystein Jansen >> Professor/Director >> Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and >> Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen >> Allégaten 55 >> N-5007 Bergen >> NORWAY >> e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no >> Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 >> Fax: +47-55-584330 >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >> Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >> http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 >> > > >-- >e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch; > >Until November 23 > National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Terrestrial Sciences, CGD > 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305 > ++1-303 497 13 44 (office) > > home address: > 3655 Emerson Avenue, Boulder, CO, 80305 > ++1-303 494 69 52 (home) > >After November 24 > Climate and Environmental Physics > Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern > Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 > Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ > >_______________________________________________ >Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4050. 2005-11-15 09:43:47 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:43:47 +0100 from: Bas van Geel subject: Re: request from Bas van Geel to: Keith Briffa Thanks Keith! Bas >Bas >the obvious one from my viewpoint should be Volcanoes . There is my Tree-density/eruption curve (see Figure 5 in attached paper) and the evidence of effects seen in instrumental data (tried to attach paper by Jones et al - also has tree-ring links- but too long so posting it to you.) By the time of the meeting we will have much longer (minimum 2000 year series of reconstructed temperatures for Fennoscandia, Urals, Taimyr ) and the integrated signal compared to volcanic forcing. >Cheers >Keith > > At 10:12 12/11/2005, you wrote: >>Dear Keith, >> >>I will be one of the keynote speakers during the HOLIVAR conference in London next June. I intend to focus on holocene climate variability at decadal-centennial time scales, based on the evidence from proxy records. I already have several good examples of climate change and the effect on populations living in hydrologically marginal areas (Michel Magny's lake level records and my own studies focusing on raised bogs). So the societal/archaeological dimension is already well covered. >> >>However, these examples focus on the evidence for solar forcing of climate change, and each HOLIVAR keynote should be a state-of-the-art synthesis, not just a presentation of results from the speakers own lab (which in my case mainly relate to the evidence for solar forcing of climate change). I ask you to suggest some ('non-solar') examples of studies with evidence for climate shifts at decadal-centennial caused by other climate forcing mechanisms. Your ideas and materials are most welcome, preferably within the next two weeks. >>Best wishes, >>Bas van Geel >> >> >>-- >>------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>Dr Bas van Geel >>E-mail: vanGeel@science.uva.nl Phone: +31 20 525 7664 Fax: +31 20 525 7832 >>http://staff.science.uva.nl/~vangeel/ >>Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED) >>http://www.science.uva.nl/ibed >>Research Group Paleoecology and Landscape Ecology * >>Faculty of Science, Universiteit van Amsterdam >>Kruislaan 318, 1098 SM Amsterdam, The Netherlands >>(Visiting address: Kruislaan 318, building I, room B111) >> >>* participating in Graduate School 'Centre for Geo-ecological Research' (ICG) >>------------------------------------------------------------------------- > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:briffa_GPC2003.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0007E73F) -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Bas van Geel E-mail: vanGeel@science.uva.nl Phone: +31 20 525 7664 Fax: +31 20 525 7832 http://staff.science.uva.nl/~vangeel/ Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED) http://www.science.uva.nl/ibed Research Group Paleoecology and Landscape Ecology * Faculty of Science, Universiteit van Amsterdam Kruislaan 318, 1098 SM Amsterdam, The Netherlands (Visiting address: Kruislaan 318, building I, room B111) * participating in Graduate School 'Centre for Geo-ecological Research' (ICG) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4121. 2005-11-15 10:29:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Phil Jones date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 10:29:42 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: heads up... to: Tim Osborn Thanks Tim, Phil yes, I never had any doubt he's wrong. In fact he's been wrong about just about every claim he's ever made. He almost had a point w/ the PCA centering, but as we all know, that doesn't matter at all in the end. The issue isn't whether or not he's right, as we all well know by now, but whether his false assertions have enough superficial plausability to get traction. In this case, they might, so probably good to at least be prepared. I was told by a journalist Paul Thacker that his poster got prominent placement, probably not an accident (see forwarded email). I believe that Mike Schlesinger and David Karoly were there in the same session, so might be worth checking w/ them. I think Connie Woodhouse and Tom Wigley were also at the meeting, but not sure... I suspect that this is the first in a line of attacks (I'm sure Tom C is next in line) that will ultimately get "published" one way or another. The GRL leak may have been plugged up now w/ new editorial leadership there, but these guys always have "Climate Research" and "Energy and Environment", and will go there if necessary. They are telegraphing quite clearly where they are going w/ all of this... Mike Tim Osborn wrote: > Thanks for this Mike. We'd spotted an earlier draft of his poster and > were a bit concerned about this receiving prominence at the meeting. > Did it arouse much discussion, do you know? Keith and Tom Melvin > looked into the dating a while back when McIntyre first raised it and > were quite satisfied with the published dating I think. Not sure what > should be done - unless he submits something for peer-review. Cheers, > Tim > > At 14:53 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: > >> not sure if you guys are aware, McIntyre presented this poster at >> the CCSP meeting. Apparently, they gave him a very prominent >> location, so that everyone entering the meeting would have seen the >> poster... >> >> mike >> >> can find at: >> http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm >> >> >> P-GC1.4 >> >> More on Hockey Sticks: The Case of Jones et al. [1998] >> >> >> >> Stephen McIntyre, >> stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca >> >> >> >> Multiproxy studies purporting to show 20th century uniqueness have >> been applied by policymakers, but they have received remarkably >> little independent critical analysis. Jones et al. [1998] is a >> prominent multi-proxy study used by IPCC [2001] and others to affirm >> the hockey stick shaped temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. >> [1998]. However, the reconstruction of Jones et al. [1998] is based >> on only 3-4 proxies in the controversial Medieval Warm Period, >> including non-arms-length studies by Briffa et al. [1992] and Briffa >> et al [1995]. We show that the Polar Urals data set in Briffa et al >> [1992] fails to meet a variety of quality control standards, both in >> replication and crossdating. The conclusion of Briffa et al. [1995] >> that 1032 was the "coldest year" of the millennium proves to be based >> on inadequate replication of only 3 tree ring cores, of which at >> least 2 are almost certainly incorrectly crossdated. We show that an >> ad hoc adjustment to the Tornetrask data set in Briffa et al [1992] >> cannot be justified. The individual and combined impact of defects in >> the Polar Urals data set and Tornetrask adjustments on the >> reconstruction of Jones et al [1998] is substantial and can be seen >> to have the effect of modifying what would otherwise indicate a >> pronounced Medieval Warm Period in the proxy reconstruction. >> Inhomogeneity problems in the Polar Urals and Tornetrask data sets, >> pertaining to altitude, minimum girth bias and pith centering bias >> will also be discussed. >> >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: >> mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> >> > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 1340. 2005-11-15 10:29:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 10:29:45 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: [Fwd: Re: FYI] to: Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm Return-Path: X-Original-To: mann@meteo.psu.edu Delivered-To: mann@meteo.psu.edu Received: from tr10n04.aset.psu.edu (tr10g04.aset.psu.edu [128.118.142.105]) by mail.meteo.psu.edu (Postfix) with ESMTP id 0386F20401D for ; Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:31:00 -0500 (EST) Received: from rubidium.acs.org (rubidium.acs.org [216.143.112.6]) by tr10n04.aset.psu.edu (8.13.2/8.13.2) with ESMTP id jAFEV0QH171798 for ; Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:31:00 -0500 Received: from Wash58.acs.org (wash58.acs.org [172.26.253.26]) by rubidium.acs.org (8.12.10/8.12.10) with ESMTP id jAFEUnqd025773 for ; Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:30:49 -0500 (EST) Received: by wash58.acs.org with Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) id ; Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:30:49 -0500 Message-ID: <3AFA044F41CC954EB61B6FB3909773DB0244C74A@wash58.acs.org> From: Paul Thacker To: mann@psu.edu Subject: RE: FYI Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 09:30:49 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19) Content-Type: text/plain X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-sophos X-PSU-Spam-Flag: NO X-PSU-Spam-Hits: -2.599 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.0.2 (2004-11-16) on mail.meteo.psu.edu X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.5 required=5.0 tests=AWL,BAYES_00 autolearn=ham version=3.0.2 There's a whole circuit of them with the CEI and AEI as the Ivy League equivalents. They always give their people these titles such as "scholar" or something along those lines. Don't know if you saw this article I did this summer about Milloy of JunkScience.com. I did the story because he was chosen as a journalism judge by AAAS. http://tinyurl.com/cuevz Anyways, his sidekick who runs TASSC with him is Bonner Cohen. Cohen is now at the National Center for Public Policy Research. It's a second tier group, or maybe the farm league for the top dogs like CEI. Believe it or not, there's dozens of these think tanks, most are here in DC, but they are also in other cities as well. By the way, saw McIntyre at the CCSP conference. His poster was right up front when you walked into the poster hall. He should be there today as well. Paul D. Thacker Associate Editor Environmental Science & Technology tel: 202.872.4541 fax: 202.872.4403 email: p_thacker@acs.org alt email: pdthacker@yahoo.com 1155 Sixteenth St. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 News:http://pubs.acs.org/journals/esthag/index_news.html -----Original Message----- From: Michael E. Mann [mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu] Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2005 9:22 AM To: Paul Thacker Subject: Re: FYI yep... Paul Thacker wrote: >Independent Institute is another of these free market think tanks with >funding from Exxon. > >Paul D. Thacker >Associate Editor >Environmental Science & Technology >tel: 202.872.4541 >fax: 202.872.4403 >email: p_thacker@acs.org >alt email: pdthacker@yahoo.com >1155 Sixteenth St. N.W. >Washington, D.C. 20036 >News:http://pubs.acs.org/journals/esthag/index_news.html > >-----Original Message----- >From: Michael E. Mann [mailto:mann@meteo.psu.edu] >Sent: Monday, November 14, 2005 3:05 PM >To: Paul Thacker >Subject: FYI > >Paul, FYI: > >http://www.independent.org/events/detail.asp?eventID=111 > >mike > > > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 1148. 2005-11-15 17:47:53 ______________________________________________________ cc: Phil Jones date: Tue Nov 15 17:47:53 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: heads up... to: mann@psu.edu, Tim Osborn Mike thanks for this. When time allows we will do a response to this poster and simply post it on our web page. As others have said , the dating of the chronology in the Urals is not wrong - but the magnitude of the extreme years in the early Urals reconstruction were not adjusted to account for inflated variance related to low chronology replication - so they are sort of right that the emphasis on 1032 is probably overdone. Anyway thanks again Keith At 15:29 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Thanks Tim, Phil yes, I never had any doubt he's wrong. In fact he's been wrong about just about every claim he's ever made. He almost had a point w/ the PCA centering, but as we all know, that doesn't matter at all in the end. The issue isn't whether or not he's right, as we all well know by now, but whether his false assertions have enough superficial plausability to get traction. In this case, they might, so probably good to at least be prepared. I was told by a journalist Paul Thacker that his poster got prominent placement, probably not an accident (see forwarded email). I believe that Mike Schlesinger and David Karoly were there in the same session, so might be worth checking w/ them. I think Connie Woodhouse and Tom Wigley were also at the meeting, but not sure... I suspect that this is the first in a line of attacks (I'm sure Tom C is next in line) that will ultimately get "published" one way or another. The GRL leak may have been plugged up now w/ new editorial leadership there, but these guys always have "Climate Research" and "Energy and Environment", and will go there if necessary. They are telegraphing quite clearly where they are going w/ all of this... Mike Tim Osborn wrote: Thanks for this Mike. We'd spotted an earlier draft of his poster and were a bit concerned about this receiving prominence at the meeting. Did it arouse much discussion, do you know? Keith and Tom Melvin looked into the dating a while back when McIntyre first raised it and were quite satisfied with the published dating I think. Not sure what should be done - unless he submits something for peer-review. Cheers, Tim At 14:53 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: not sure if you guys are aware, McIntyre presented this poster at the CCSP meeting. Apparently, they gave him a very prominent location, so that everyone entering the meeting would have seen the poster... mike can find at: <[1]http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm>http://www.climatesc ience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm P-GC1.4 More on Hockey Sticks: The Case of Jones et al. [1998] Stephen McIntyre, <[2]mailto:stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca>stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca Multiproxy studies purporting to show 20th century uniqueness have been applied by policymakers, but they have received remarkably little independent critical analysis. Jones et al. [1998] is a prominent multi-proxy study used by IPCC [2001] and others to affirm the hockey stick shaped temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. [1998]. However, the reconstruction of Jones et al. [1998] is based on only 3-4 proxies in the controversial Medieval Warm Period, including non-arms-length studies by Briffa et al. [1992] and Briffa et al [1995]. We show that the Polar Urals data set in Briffa et al [1992] fails to meet a variety of quality control standards, both in replication and crossdating. The conclusion of Briffa et al. [1995] that 1032 was the "coldest year" of the millennium proves to be based on inadequate replication of only 3 tree ring cores, of which at least 2 are almost certainly incorrectly crossdated. We show that an ad hoc adjustment to the Tornetrask data set in Briffa et al [1992] cannot be justified. The individual and combined impact of defects in the Polar Urals data set and Tornetrask adjustments on the reconstruction of Jones et al [1998] is substantial and can be seen to have the effect of modifying what would otherwise indicate a pronounced Medieval Warm Period in the proxy reconstruction. Inhomogeneity problems in the Polar Urals and Tornetrask data sets, pertaining to altitude, minimum girth bias and pith centering bias will also be discussed. -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: <[3]mailto:mann@psu.edu>mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 <[4]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm>[5]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/ mann.htm Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [8]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 5298. 2005-11-21 11:00:18 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen date: Mon Nov 21 11:00:18 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: extra request for Christchurch to: Jonathan Overpeck , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Think we can do - but both in Switzerland all week , so will look next week Keith At 03:42 18/11/2005, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Keith and Tim - Susan has put a map showing sites w/ available proxy data for the last 2000 years in the Tech Summ. as a placeholder. We agreed that chap 6 should look into the feasibility of including such a fig in chap 6 and the TS, and would like to ask if you could produce such a figure (perhaps with some interation w/ us to make sure it's on the mark) in time for us to use in our chap 6 plenary presentations. Below, see the example pulled by Susan for the TS - hopefully, we can do better than this? Also, is there anything else NEW (since our FOD) and exciting that we might want to share with the entire WG1 team in our Christchurch plenary? For example, a figure illustrating a new compelling reason to have faith in the recons for the last 1000 years? Something related to the M and M controversy? thanks for helping with this extra request. We are asking several of our LAs to help generate new graphics for Christchruch, and figure in each case that it is work that has to be done sooner or later before the SOD, so we might as well do it before Christchuch and get much more credit and feedback. Thanks again! Cheers, Peck and Eystein 248a09cf.jpg -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 604. 2005-11-28 15:32:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Nov 28 15:32:03 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Fw: 2005JC003188 Decision Letter to: Sandy Tudhope Hi Sandy I look forward to more drink and discussion - but in the meantime hope everything is well with you. My feeling as you know , is that the pre-selection of "useful" coral records does negate some of the power in the verification - and we kow of course about the uniformatarianism assumption . However this is a first attempt , and still suggests unprecedented warming (in the context of these quite short data) and I suppose we could refer to "isotopically warmer" and put the caveats in - but the work still deserves publication. Let's see what Rob comes up with as a revision and response - but I am confident we can get this (and it deserves to be) published. Cheers Keith At 06:01 22/11/2005, you wrote: Hi Keith, Sorry I won't get to share a beer with you in Bern. Next time I'm back I'll come down to UEA ... or you could come up to Edinburgh. I've taken a quick look at the reviews. Some are easy to deal with, but I imagine that diagnosing the causes of temperature change in HadCM3 will depend on how much time Philip and Simon can spare to do the work. Mike Evans is of course right that the empirical approach hides complexities of changing relationships between SST and SSS as a function of frequency, and it is hard to know how stable even these frequency-dependent relationships will be through time. Cheers, Sandy Keith Briffa wrote: Rob we will digest and talk in Bern Keith At 15:54 21/11/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: Greetings, reviews are in. Not accepted in its current form. However, I had a quick look through - I think all the comments can be addressed. see you in Bern Rob ----- Original Message ----- From: <[1]mailto:jgr-oceans@agu.org>jgr-oceans@agu.org To: <[2]mailto:rob.wilson@ed.ac.uk>rob.wilson@ed.ac.uk Cc: <[3]mailto:rob.dendro@virgin.net>rob.dendro@virgin.net Sent: Monday, November 21, 2005 3:44 PM Subject: 2005JC003188 Decision Letter Dear Dr. Wilson: Thank you for submitting your manuscript "250-years of reconstructed and modeled tropical temperatures" [Paper #2005JC003188]. I have now received 3 reviews of your manuscript which I enclose for your reference. Based on the comments of the reviewrs and the associate editors, I findyour manuscript unsuitable for publication in JGR-Oceans in its present form. The reviewers do find the contribution valuable and ingteresting and make a large number of constructive critical remarks and suggestions. Additional concerns were raised by the associate editor about the reconstruction technique which is quite inadequately described. From lines 21-23 on p.6, the reconstruction is a simple averaging of normalized coral records available for the target period. If so, then there are no need to tune anything, why then there are calibration period? Further how verification statistics, like CE or RE can be "extended back to 1644" (p.8, line 2 and further, Table S1), if the instrumental dataset HadISST starts in 1870? While clarifying this, the authors also need to provide explicit formula for all statistics they use that are less standard than mean, correlation coefficients, and standard deviations. Even using RE and CE without definition will make this paper unreadable for JGR-Oceans audience, not to mention more exotic statistics (PM,ST,LIN). Another basic issue not discussed is what kind of consistency can be expected, to begin with, between paleoreconstructions and coupled GCM runs. The authors take the mean of the coupled GCM ensemble and compare it on annual basis with their paleoreconstruction. Earth climate has a lot of noise, on annual basis. It is not obvios why anything but very long-term trends (and perhaps imulse responses to volcanic eruptions) should be consistent. And considering that all trends correlate, it is necessary to ensure that the trend signals are produced for the same reasons or are due to the same mechanisms. A reconsideration of your manuscript will require detailed responses to each of the reviewers comments and appropriately highlighted revisions which are necessary and mandatory. Please submit your revised manuscript by December 31, 2005. If you do not plan to submit a revision, or if you cannot do so in the time allotted, I would be grateful if you could let me know as soon as possible. Please review the Important Links to JGR Information attached below before uploading your revised manuscript. When you are ready to submit your revision, please use the link below. <<[4]http://jgr-oceans-submit.agu.org/cgi-bin/main.plex?el=A1D1BjvY3A2CcrO2I7A9KGXg2FZaf NJvsZyA2JF0mAZ>[5]http://jgr-oceans-submit.agu.org/cgi-bin/main.plex?el=A1D1BjvY3A2CcrO2 I7A9KGXg2FZafNJvsZyA2JF0mAZ> I thank you for submitting your best work to Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans. Sincerely, Raghu Murtugudde Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans --------------------IMPORTANT PUBLICATION INFORMATION--------------------- To ensure prompt publication: 1. Follow file format guidelines 2. Provide a color option 3. Combine figure parts or provide separate captions 4. Provide copyright permissions for reprinted figures and tables 5. Sign and send copyright transfer agreement 6. A formal estimate will be sent to you a few weeks after acceptance. For information on all of the above items, see Tools for Authors at <[6]http://www.agu.org/pubs/inf4aus.html>[7]http://www.agu.org/pubs/inf4aus.html. If you have any questions, reply to this e-mail. A manuscript tracking tool is available for you to to track the status of your article after acceptance: <[8]http://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/ms_status/ms_status.cgi>http://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/ms_sta tus/ms_status.cgi Adobe Acrobat Reader is available, free, on the internet at the following URL: <[9]http://www.adobe.com/prodindex/acrobat/readstep.html>[10]http://www.adobe.com/prodin dex/acrobat/readstep.html ************************************END************************************* Reviewer Comments Associate Editor(Comments): All reviewers consider this paper interesting and valuable, and made a large number of constructive critical remarks and suggestions. However, neither reviewer commented about the reconstruction technique, but that is precisely where I find myself completely confused by the manuscript. From lines 21-23 on p.6, the reconstruction is a simple averaging of normalized coral records available for the target period. If so, then there are no need to tune anything, why then there are calibration period? Further how verification statistics, like CE or RE can be "extended back to 1644" (p.8, line 2 and further, Table S1), if the instrumental dataset HadISST starts in 1870? While clarifying this, the authors also need to provide explicit formula for all statistics they use that are less standard than mean, correlation coefficients, and standard deviations. Even using RE and CE without definition will make this paper unreadable for JGR-Oceans audience, not to mention more exotic statistics (PM,ST,LIN). Another basic issue not discussed by the authors is what kind of consistency can be expected, to begin with, between paleoreconstructions and coupled GCM runs. The authors take the mean of the coupled GCM ensemble and compare it on annual basis with their paleoreconstruction. Earth climate has a lot of noise, on annual basis. Why anything but very long-term trends (and perhaps imulse responses to volcanic eruptions) should be consistent. My recommendation is to request a major revision, addressing these issues and all comments by the reviewers. Detailed descriptiopn how comments were addressed is also necessary. Reviewer #1(Comments): This is a careful, detailed and useful paper that shows how information from massive corals can be used to develop reconstructions of average tropical temperatures and thus contribute to a more realistic (ie less biased to extra-tropical latitudes) history of past temperature variations. It is also informative to see the comparisons with long model runs. I consider the paper suitable for publication in JGR after revision. Specific comments include: · The reliability of the reconstruction declines markedly prior to 1850. The authors need to emphasize even more than they do that this is a "first go" to illustrate what is possible. I am concerned that the full series maybe used by people unfamiliar with the problems as a robust reconstruction. · The Isdale et al (1998) coral fluorescence series has been superseded by the series published by Hendy et al (2003) who also noted dating errors in the original; also Isdale et al (1998) noted that a long-term trend in the Havannah Island coral record may not be real; I am not sure how much this would affect the outcomes of the present study; these problems should, at least, be noted. · I would prefer the names of the coral sites be written in full in the text, rather than "RUS, PAL and MTA" etc · It would be useful to include a Table giving the names & locations of the series used and their record length & showing which series were used in the various nestings. This will help the reader follow the "nested" procedures. · Why were the series averaged together to form the various reconstructions? Why were multiple regressions not used? Would this have made any difference to the outcomes? I think, at least, there should be a bit more justification of the averaging approach. · I think the work of Evans in various papers, although reconstructing patterns, should be highlighted more, as several of the conclusions are similar. I have also made a number of comments and suggested changes on the attached manuscript. Additional references: Evans, M.N., A. Kaplan & M.A. Cane, 1998. Optimal sites for coral-based reconstruction of global sea surface temperature. Paleoceanograhy, 13: 502-516. Evans, M.N., A. Kaplan & M.A. Cane, 2000. Intercomparison of coral oxygen isotope data and historical sea surface temperature (SST): potential for coral-based SST field reconstruction. Paleoceanography, 15: 551-563 Hendy, E.J., M.K. Gagan & J.M. Lough, 2003. Chronological control of coral records using luminescent lines and evidence for non-stationary ENSO teleconnections in northeast Australia. The Holocene 13: 187.199. Reviewer #2(Comments): Please see attached file. Reviewer #3(Comments): In the manuscript:" 250-years of reconstructed and modeled tropical temperatures" from Wilson, Tudhope, Brohan, Briffa, Osborn and Tett, the authors present a new reconstruction tropical sea surface temperature derived from coral proxies and compared with model output. Such a reconstruction is of prime importance because tropical climatic variability plays a key role in global climate and remains poorly known. It could be publish after some minor precisions. The aim of the paper is clearly exposed. The strategy used to respond is well explained. However some details need to be revised. 1- For assessing the calibration you do not indicate precisely the SST time series compared with pooling coral records: do you consider local data or an average over a specific area? The explanation given p 7 line 10-12 is not clear for me. 2- You select the coral data by comparing the records with local SST. We could expect that Sr/Ca would be the best records, because it is commonly regarded as a pure SST proxy. Instead Sr/Ca, which is supposed to respond to one forcing, the best correlation is obtained with δ18O known to depend upon two factors. What do you mean p 5 line 12, by "not always"? Tudhope being among the authors we could suppose a comment or a discussion about this curious result. 3- The trend recorded from the early 19th century is estimated about 0.7, 1{degree sign}C. The start of the temperature increase occurs very early and the amplitude seems overestimated for tropical latitude. There are no comments in the discussion. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [11]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- _____________________________________________________________________ Professor Sandy Tudhope, AND: Sandy Tudhope, School of GeoSciences, Ocean Sciences Building Rm521, Grant Institute, Box 355351,University of Washington, Edinburgh University, Seattle, WA 98195-5351,U.S.A. West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW,U.K. PACKAGES AND MAIL REQUIRING SIGNATURE: Marine Sciences Building Room G, Tel: +44 131 650 8508 University of Washington, +44 131 650 4842 (sec.) Seattle, WA 98195-7940,U.S.A. Fax: +44 131 668 3184 e-mail: sandy.tudhope@ed.ac.uk Tel: +1 206 221 5630 (work) +1 206 612 3243 (mobile) Fax: +1 206 685 3351 e-mail: -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [12]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1335. 2005-11-29 10:26:33 ______________________________________________________ cc: Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , Heinz Wanner date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 10:26:33 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Workshop: Participants/ 1. Circular to: Christoph Kull Christoph, Can I please have an explanation of what happened here???? You sent out a list yesterday of partipipants that we had all agreed upon. Today, you sent out emails to a DIFFERENT list, inviting an additional participant (Zorita) who we SPECIFICALLY DISCUSSED and decided (as I understood it) would not be invited because of personality conflict issues. At the very least, this needed further discussion, not unilateral overruling without notice. I'd like an explanation of what happened here. I do not believe that this event will be constructive and amicable with Zorita's participation. If the recommendaitons of the organizers are not going to be followed, I am unsure I can participate in or endorse this event. If Zorita is in, I am out! Mike Christoph Kull wrote: >Dear all, >I incorporated the comments received so far regarding the 1. Circular for >the "Past Millennia Variability" workshop and made the final version >(attached). >Attached is also the finalized participants list. >Please have a quick look - thanks! We once also discussed having an Asian >participant. Actually, there is nobody from Japan or China on the list... > >If you agree, I will send out the information (1. Circular, "Invited >Participant list") this week. > >Thanks for your feedback, >All the best, >Christoph > > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 2677. 2005-11-29 11:22:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Heinz Wanner , Phil Jones date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 11:22:37 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: workshop: participants / 1.Circular to: Christoph Kull Dear All, There is only one reasonable solution now. Since Zorita has been invited, so also must be Eugene Wahl of Alfred University ([1]wahle@alfred.edu) who has been doing extensive work in testing the statistical reconstruciton methods...This would introduce back some degree of balance in the participants. If Wahl is invited, I would reconsider participating in this, Mike Christoph Kull wrote: Dear Mike, I got the email below from you, where you replied on the note from Keith and Phil....I therefore assumed that you both can live with the suggestion made by Keith and Heinz of having a member of the German team (Zorita) on board. We will certainly expect from all participants to contribute in a constructive way! In the cc list I copied the PAGES/CLIVAR chairs and the PAGES chair for information on the ongoing activity. This seems justified to me. Sorry to boarder you - this really wasn't intended! All the best, Christoph On 28.11.2005 17:40, "Michael E. Mann" [2] wrote: I agree. looks very great. I'm at an NSF meeting right now, and may mention this is an upcoming activity relevant to the ESH program... mike Phil Jones wrote: sending again as Mike's old email address is there. Christoph, I have nothing further to add. Happy for invitations to go out. Phil At 16:20 28/11/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: Christoph just back from Switzerland - only comment is that I really believe inviting Eduardo Zorita to incorporate a member of the German team would seem justified and necessary. Obviously, inviting Hans von Storch is not practical,but Eduardo is , I believe, objective and fair and would certainly contribute constructively (and could include relevant work from Gerd Burger from Berlin, who published the recent Tellus paper on the various simulated reconstructions). best wishes all Keith At 13:40 28/11/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear all, I incorporated the comments received so far regarding the 1. Circular for the "Past Millennia Variability" workshop and made the final version (attached). Attached is also the finalized participants list. Please have a quick look - thanks! We once also discussed having an Asian participant. Actually, there is nobody from Japan or China on the list... If you agree, I will send out the information (1. Circular, "Invited Participant list") this week. Thanks for your feedback, All the best, Christoph -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [5]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [6]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 4862. 2005-11-29 13:11:49 ______________________________________________________ cc: Christoph Kull , Heinz Wanner , Phil Jones date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 13:11:49 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: workshop: participants / 1.Circular to: Keith Briffa ok Keith--thanks for clarifying. It sounds like it was just an unfortunate but entirely honest mistake. Clearly too late to uninvite Eduardo, and I take Keith's word for it that he will "behave" appropriately. I would urge the invitation of Eugene Wahl too, if people don't object, just to provide a bit more balance in terms of the people who have actually been testing the multivariate calibration methods, etc... Would people agree to this? thanks mike Keith Briffa wrote: > Mike > > I absolutely accept responsibility for this fuck up - I simply did a > multiple reply when I suggested this and did not notice that your > email address was wrong. I thought there might be some sensitivity > (hence my remark that it was clearly inappropriate to ask Hans) but > my suggestion was just that - a suggestion , which required your > acceptance, and motivated only by recent contact with Eduardo where > he was clearly not in any way personally critical of you - but > honestly seemed motivated by a wish to advance the science. > I too misinterpreted your silence as agreement . > We simply will not allow you to withdraw . You know perfectly well > that you are too important in all this to take such action. If it > requires my talking to Eduardo and getting him to withdraw , then so > be it. However, please accept that I (and I believe Eduardo) consider > Hans' attack to have been unacceptable , and consider that as a group > we need to move the subject on. I think we should try to build bridges > here . > > > > with genuine apologies for all this > sincerely > Keith > > At 16:11 29/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: > >> Keith's comment was never sent to me. I only saw Phil's comment >> (which apparently had Keith's comment below. Howver Keith never sent >> this to me!). We had specifically discussed this in Bern and decided >> that Zwiers could more objectively reflect that group than either >> Zorita for Von Storch who have been involved in ad hominem public >> attacks against us. Again, we had a specific discussion about this. >> >> I hereby formally withdraw my participation from this event. >> >> Mike >> >> Christoph Kull wrote: >> >>> >>> Dear Mike, >>> I got the email below from you, where you replied on the note from >>> Keith and >>> Phil....I therefore assumed that you both can live with the >>> suggestion made >>> by Keith and Heinz of having a member of the German team (Zorita) on >>> board. >>> We will certainly expect from all participants to contribute in a >>> constructive way! >>> In the cc list I copied the PAGES/CLIVAR chairs and the PAGES chair for >>> information on the ongoing activity. This seems justified to me. >>> Sorry to boarder you - this really wasn't intended! >>> >>> >>> >>> All the best, >>> Christoph >>> >>> >>> >>> On 28.11.2005 17:40, "Michael E. Mann" >>> wrote: >>> >>> >>>> >>>> I agree. looks very great. I'm at an NSF meeting right now, and may >>>> mention this is an upcoming activity relevant to the ESH program... >>>> >>>> mike >>>> >>>> Phil Jones wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> sending again as Mike's old email address is there. >>>>> >>>>> Christoph, >>>>> I have nothing further to add. Happy for invitations to go >>>>> out. >>>>> >>>>> Phil >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> At 16:20 28/11/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Christoph >>>>>> just back from Switzerland - only comment is that I really believe >>>>>> inviting Eduardo Zorita to incorporate a member of the German team >>>>>> would seem justified and necessary. Obviously, inviting Hans von >>>>>> Storch is not practical,but Eduardo is , I believe, objective and >>>>>> fair and would certainly contribute constructively (and could >>>>>> include >>>>>> relevant work from Gerd Burger from Berlin, who published the recent >>>>>> Tellus paper on the various simulated reconstructions). >>>>>> best wishes all >>>>>> Keith >>>>>> >>>>>> At 13:40 28/11/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Dear all, >>>>>>> I incorporated the comments received so far regarding the 1. >>>>>>> Circular for >>>>>>> the "Past Millennia Variability" workshop and made the final >>>>>>> version >>>>>>> (attached). >>>>>>> Attached is also the finalized participants list. >>>>>>> Please have a quick look - thanks! We once also discussed having an >>>>>>> Asian >>>>>>> participant. Actually, there is nobody from Japan or China on the >>>>>>> list... >>>>>>> >>>>>>> If you agree, I will send out the information (1. Circular, >>>>>>> "Invited >>>>>>> Participant list") this week. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Thanks for your feedback, >>>>>>> All the best, >>>>>>> Christoph >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> Christoph Kull >>>>>>> Science Officer >>>>>>> PAGES IPO >>>>>>> Sulgeneckstrasse 38 >>>>>>> CH-3007 Bern >>>>>>> Switzerland >>>>>>> >>>>>>> phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 >>>>>>> fax: +4131 312 31 68 >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>>>> >>>>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>>>> >>>>>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Prof. Phil Jones >>>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>> Norwich Email >>>>> p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>>>> NR4 7TJ >>>>> UK >>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: >> mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 312. 2005-11-29 15:08:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 15:08:10 -0000 from: "Dean Sec" subject: Biggest ever global climate change demo to: From: info-admin@uea.ac.uk [mailto:info-admin@uea.ac.uk] On Behalf Of SU Comms (STU) sucomm Campaign against Climate Change Make sure you get to BRITAIN'S BIGGEST-EVER DEMO AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE on Sat Dec 3rd in London The London Climate March will go past 10 Downing Street where a letter will be handed in demanding that the British government reaffirm its commitment to a climate treaty with legally binding targets, before finishing at the US embassy where the speakers will include Michael Meacher MP (Environment Minister 1997-2003) George Monbiot Norman Baker MP (Lib-Dem Shadow Environment Minister) Caroline Lucas MEP (Green Party) Plus Fazlun Khalid from IFEES (Islamic Foundation for Ecology and the Environmental Sciences), Ruth Jarman from Christian Ecology Link, Peter Bunyard science editor from the Ecologist, Nick Rau from Friends of the Earth and a speaker from Rising tide. More details www.campaigncc.org There are around 30 coaches planned for the day (see http://forum.campaigncc.org/?q=coachesDec3 ) And demonstrations or events are planned in 30 countries around the world on December 3rd (see www.globalclimatecampaign.org) This includes a minimum of 15,000 people in Montreal, a protest in Iquitos in the Amazon Rainforest, a Global Warming Party in New Orleans USA, a 'Climate Walk' in 7 Australian cities, a demo of thousands in Istanbul, and events/demos in places from Cape Town to Helsinki and San Francisco to Seoul. However big this demo will be it still needs to be bigger - please spread the word to whoever you haven't already, pass around this email, distribute some leaflets, help build this demo in any way you can think of... And be there - its going to be a fantastic day ! _______________________________________________ Info mailing list Info@uea.ac.uk http://www.uea.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/info 2028. 2005-11-29 17:42:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Wahl, Eugene R" date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 17:42:25 -0700 from: Caspar Ammann subject: IPCC ref. regarding McIntyre and McKitrick to: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn Hi everybody, just a quick update that I got word from the Chief Editor of GRL (Jay Famiglietti) that our comment in GRL about the MM paper earlier this year has finally been accepted. They are now soliciting a response from McIntyre and McKitrick, but that should now move rather quickly. No official word on the Climatic Change paper just yet. Cheers, Caspar PS Here the full references: Ammann C.M., and E.R. Wahl, accepted: Comment on “Hockey sticks, principle components, and spurious significance” by S. McIntyre and R. McKitrick, Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted. Wahl, E.R and C.M. Ammann, revised: Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence. Climatic Change, revised and in review. -- Caspar M. Ammann National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80307-3000 email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 3744. 2005-11-30 08:01:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 08:01:22 +0000 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Released today - climate change and the media research to: cru.internal@uea.ac.uk Reply-To: From: "solitaire townsend" To: Cc: , , , , , , , , , Subject: Released today - climate change and the media research Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 18:18:54 -0000 Organization: Futerra X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook, Build 11.0.5510 Thread-Index: AcX1EVqI9JITiU0lRO+BLKrnd1fxbw== X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - ocean.dns-nac-zone.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - uea.ac.uk X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [47 12] / [47 12] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - futerra.co.uk X-Source: X-Source-Args: X-Source-Dir: X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Is the media helping to tackle climate change? The Futerra team have read every story on climate change across the main UK newspapers over the past three months. Interesting work but, as we suspected, the UK print news media portrays climate change as a big nasty with no real solution. Coverage on the solutions or ideas for what the public can do is hard to find. In the attached report youll also find rankings of the top10 newspapers and journalists covering climate change. We hope you find this brief report interesting. Please contact us with any comments, questions or observations. Best wishes The Futerra Team Futerra Sustainability Communications Ltd + 44 (0)20 7378 4000 [1]www.futerra.co.uk Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Climate Fear v Climate Hope1.pdf" 1547. 2005-11-30 09:21:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 09:21:37 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: IPCC ref. regarding McIntyre and McKitrick to: Caspar Ammann Thanks Caspar. This is good news. Please keep us posted. Best, Peck >Hi everybody, > >just a quick update that I got word from the Chief Editor of GRL >(Jay Famiglietti) that our comment in GRL about the MM paper earlier >this year has finally been accepted. They are now soliciting a >response from McIntyre and McKitrick, but that should now move >rather quickly. No official word on the Climatic Change paper just >yet. > >Cheers, >Caspar > >PS Here the full references: > >Ammann C.M., and E.R. Wahl, accepted: Comment on "Hockey sticks, >principle components, and spurious significance" by S. McIntyre and >R. McKitrick, Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted. > >Wahl, E.R and C.M. Ammann, revised: Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, >Hughes reconstruction of surface temperatures: Examination of >criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate >evidence. Climatic Change, revised and in review. > > >-- >Caspar M. Ammann >National Center for Atmospheric Research >Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology >1850 Table Mesa Drive >Boulder, CO 80307-3000 >email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2554. 2005-11-30 11:04:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: Phil Jones , Keith Briffa date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 11:04:40 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: [Fwd: u seen?] to: Tim Osborn fair enough, I'll go w/ flimsy. The real problem is the fairly inflammatory wording of this, and the really flawed interpretations w.r.t. implicatinos for natural vs. anthropogenic variaiblity. normally I'd ignore, but the fact that Andy Revkin received this suggests they are trying to publicize this review paper, which I find a bit odd... mike Tim Osborn wrote: > Hi Mike, > > I've seen this before (and probably Keith has too) because our EU > "SOAP" project supported Rob Wilson, the second author. I'd say that > it is "flimsy" rather than "shoddy"! Still, it's only supposed to be > a "viewpoint" rather than new science. > > Tim > > At 15:31 30/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: > >> thought you guys would be interested. pretty shoddy stuff in my view... >> >> mike >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> >> >> >> >> Return-Path: >> X-Original-To: mann@meteo.psu.edu >> Delivered-To: mann@meteo.psu.edu >> Received: from tr12n04.aset.psu.edu (tr12g04.aset.psu.edu >> [128.118.146.130]) >> by mail.meteo.psu.edu (Postfix) with ESMTP id 2027520401A >> for ; Wed, 30 Nov 2005 10:15:10 -0500 (EST) >> Received: from nytimes.com (nat-hq-gate-02.nytimes.com >> [199.181.175.222]) >> by tr12n04.aset.psu.edu (8.13.2/8.13.2) with ESMTP id >> jAUFF8P22437280 >> for ; Wed, 30 Nov 2005 10:15:08 -0500 >> Message-Id: <6.1.2.0.2.20051130101420.02d14460@smtp-store.nytimes.com> >> X-Sender: anrevk@smtp-store.nytimes.com >> X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.2.0 >> Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 10:14:45 -0500 >> To: mann@psu.edu >> From: Andy Revkin >> Subject: u seen? >> Mime-Version: 1.0 >> Content-Type: multipart/alternative; >> boundary="=====================_79165303==.ALT" >> X-NYTOriginatingHost: , 10.149.64.222 >> X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-sophos >> X-PSU-Spam-Flag: NO >> X-PSU-Spam-Hits: 0.695 >> X-PSU-Spam-Level: * >> X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.0.2 (2004-11-16) on >> mail.meteo.psu.edu >> X-Spam-Level: >> X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.6 required=5.0 >> tests=AWL,BAYES_00,HTML_00_10, >> HTML_MESSAGE,MIME_QP_LONG_LINE autolearn=no version=3.0.2 >> >> purely fyi.. u seen? >> >> >>> Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 24, Issues 20-21 , November 2005, >>> Pages 2164-2166 >>> http://tinyurl.com/b95ee >>> >>> Climate: past ranges and future changes >>> >>> Jan Esper a), Robert J.S. Wilson b), David C. Frank a), Anders >>> Moberg c), Heinz Wanner d) and Jürg Luterbacher d) >>> >>> a) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland >>> b) School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, >>> Edinburgh, UK >>> c) Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, >>> Sweden >>> d) NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, 3012 >>> Bern, Switzerland >>> >>> Abstract >>> >>> Comparison of large-scale temperature reconstructions over the past >>> millennium reveals agreement on major climatic episodes, but >>> substantial divergence in reconstructed (absolute) temperature >>> amplitude. We here detail several research priorities to overcome >>> this 'amplitude desideratum', and discuss the relevance of this >>> effort for the prediction of future temperature changes and the >>> meaning of the Kyoto protocol. >>> >>> Persisting controversy (Regalado, 2005) surrounding a pioneering >>> northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction (Mann et al., 1999) >>> indicates the importance of such records to understand our changing >>> climate. Such reconstructions, combining data from tree rings, >>> documentary evidence and other proxy sources are key to evaluate >>> natural forcing mechanisms, such as the sun's irradiance or volcanic >>> eruptions, along with those from the widespread release of >>> anthropogenic greenhouse gases since about 1850 during the >>> industrial (and instrumental) period. We here demonstrate that our >>> understanding of the shape of long-term climate fluctuations is >>> better than commonly perceived, but that the absolute amplitude of >>> temperature variations is poorly understood. We argue that the >>> knowledge of this amplitude is critical for predicting future >>> trends, and detail four research priorities to solve this >>> incertitude: (i) reduce calibration uncertainty, (ii) preserve >>> 'colour' in proxy data, (iii) utilize accurate instrumental data, >>> and (iv) update old and develop new proxy data. >>> >>> When matching existing temperature reconstructions (Jones et al., >>> 1999; Mann et al., 1999; Briffa, 2000; Esper et al., 2002; Moberg, >>> et al., 2005) over the past 1000 years, although substantial >>> divergences exist during certain periods, the timeseries display a >>> reasonably coherent picture of major climatic episodes: 'Medieval >>> Warm Period', 'Little Ice Age' and 'Recent Warming' (Fig. 1). >>> However, when calibrated against instrumental temperature records, >>> these same reconstructions splay outwards with temperature >>> amplitudes ranging from 0.4 to 1.0 °C for decadal means (Moberg et >>> al., 2005). Further, a comparison of commonly used regression and >>> scaling approaches shows that the reconstructed absolute amplitudes >>> easily vary by over 0.5 °C, depending on the method and instrumental >>> target chosen (Esper et al., 2005). Overall, amplitude discrepancies >>> are in the order of the total variability estimated over the past >>> millennium, and undoubtedly confuse future modelled temperature >>> trends via parameterisation uncertainties related to inadequately >>> simulated behaviour of past variability. >>> >>> Fig. 1. Course of temperature variations. Large-scale temperature >>> reconstructions scaled to the same mean and variance over the common >>> period 1000-1979 AD, and their arithmetic mean. The normalisation >>> highlights the similarity between the records, but broadly ignores >>> the differing calibration statistics with instrumental data, and >>> their particular 'shapes' and distribution of variance, e.g. during >>> the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The average >>> correlation between the original reconstructions is 0.47, and 0.64 >>> after smoothing (as done in the figure using a 40-year low-pass >>> filter). Lag-1 autocorrelations range from 0.52 (Jones98) to 0.93 >>> (Moberg05; with no variability <4 years represented). >>> >>> >>> Solutions to reduce calibration uncertainty include the use of >>> pseudo-proxy experiments (Osborn and Briffa, 2004; von Storch et >>> al., 2004) derived from ensemble simulations of different models >>> (Knutti et al., 2002; Stainforth et al., 2005) to test statistical >>> calibration methods, e.g. principal component (Cook et al., 1994) >>> and timescale-dependent (Osborn and Briffa, 2000) regression. Such >>> analyses, however, should mimic the character of empirical proxy >>> data, e.g. the decline of replication (numbers of sites, quality per >>> site) back in time, and the addition of noise typical to empirical >>> proxy data (i.e., not just white; Mann and Rutherford, 2002). >>> Further, reconstructions from areas such as Europe (Luterbacher et >>> al., 2004; Xoplaki et al., 2005), where long instrumental series and >>> high densities of proxy records exist, allow extended calibration >>> periods and increased degrees of freedom enabling the assessment of >>> robust relationships at all timescales (i.e., low and high >>> frequency), both critical to reduce calibration uncertainty. >>> Subsequent comparison of such regional records with hemispheric >>> reconstructions that can be downscaled should provide greater >>> understanding of reconstructed amplitudes at larger spatial scales. >>> >>> Accurate preservation and assessment of low-to-high frequency >>> variation ('colour') in proxy data, and a selected use of certain >>> frequency bands that best fit those of instrumental data (Moberg et >>> al., 2005), are further desirable when compiling large-scale >>> reconstructions that seek to yield the true absolute temperature >>> amplitude. This approach, however, requires a comprehensive >>> examination of regional proxy data including the seasonality of >>> temperature signals, and a selection of only those records that >>> effectively capture low-frequency climate variation. Inclusion of >>> regional tree ring records in which long-term trends are not >>> preserved, should be avoided in efforts to reconstruct low frequency >>> temperature variations (Esper et al., 2004; Melvin, 2004). In these >>> data, such limitations primarily occur when age-related biases from >>> tree-ring series are individually estimated and removed ('the >>> segment length curse' Cook et al., 1995). Similar considerations >>> apply to documentary evidence, long isotope records and other proxy >>> sources that should, on a site-by-site basis, be examined for >>> potential low-frequency limitations. >>> >>> The instrumental target data chosen (Esper et al., 2005), and >>> adjustments made to these data are also vital to the reconstructed >>> amplitude. A recent analysis of a carefully homogenised instrumental >>> network from the Alps and surrounding areas (Böhm et al., 2001), for >>> example, shows the annual temperature trend over the last ca 110 >>> years to be 1.1 °C-twice that observed over the same alpine >>> gridboxes in the global dataset provided by the Climatic Research >>> Unit (Jones et al., 1999). Such changes in the character of >>> observational data, resulting from homogeneity adjustments and >>> methodology differences (Moberg et al., 2003), directly affect the >>> temperature amplitude in proxy-based reconstructions, since >>> instrumental calibration sets the pulse in these paleorecords >>> (Büntgen et al., 2005). Accurate instrumental data are therefore >>> crucial to the reconstructed amplitude, and this again argues for >>> regional studies where mutual verification between proxy and >>> instrumental records is viable (Frank and Esper, 2005; Wilson et >>> al., 2005). >>> >>> Finally, more proxy data covering the full millennium and >>> representing the same spatial domain as the instrumental target data >>> (e.g., hemisphere) are required to solve the amplitude puzzle. The >>> current pool of 1000-year long annually resolved temperature proxies >>> is limited to a handful of timeseries, with some of them also >>> portraying differing seasonal (e.g., summer or annual) responses. >>> Furthermore, the strength of many of these local records and >>> literally all tree ring chronologies varies and almost always >>> declines back in time (Cook et al., 2004). The reasons are manifold >>> and include dating uncertainty, loss of signal fidelity in the >>> recent period, assumptions about signal stationarity, reduction of >>> sample replication, etc., and are generally not considered in the >>> uncertainty estimates of combined large-scale reconstructions. Also, >>> data from the most recent decades, absent in many regional proxy >>> records, limits the calibration period length and hinders tests of >>> the behaviour of the proxies under the present 'extreme' temperature >>> conditions. Calibration including the exceptional conditions since >>> the 1990s would, however, be necessary to estimate the robustness of >>> a reconstruction during earlier warm episodes, such as the Medieval >>> Warm Period, and would avoid the need to splice proxy and >>> instrumental records together to derive conclusions about recent >>> warmth. >>> >>> So, what would it mean, if the reconstructions indicate a larger >>> (Esper et al., 2002; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) >>> or smaller (Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999) temperature >>> amplitude? We suggest that the former situation, i.e. enhanced >>> variability during pre-industrial times, would result in a >>> redistribution of weight towards the role of natural factors in >>> forcing temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing the impact >>> of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted scenarios. >>> If that turns out to be the case, agreements such as the Kyoto >>> protocol that intend to reduce emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse >>> gases, would be less effective than thought. This scenario, however, >>> does not question the general mechanism established within the >>> protocol, which we believe is a breakthrough. >>> >>> doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.07.001 >>> Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved. >> >> >> >> Andrew C. Revkin, Science Reporter, The New York Times >> 229 West 43d St. NY, NY 10036 >> Tel: 212-556-7326, 914-441-5556 (mobile); Fax: 509-357-0965 >> Recent Arctic coverage: www.nytimes.com/pages/science/sciencereport >> Book on the Amazon: The Burning Season ( www.islandpress.org/burning ) >> Acoustic-Roots Band: www.sonicbids.com/unclewade > > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 4486. 2005-11-30 13:25:54 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, mann@psu.edu date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 13:25:54 -0500 from: "raymond s. bradley" subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: christoph.kull@pages.unibe.ch Dear Christoph: I regret that I will not be able to make it to the PAGES/CLIVAR meeting in early June. I am already committed to fieldwork in the High Arctic at that time. May I suggest that you invite Dominik Fleitmann to the meeting. He has some very important high resolution records from speleothems and I don't see anybody on the list who represents that approach to paleoclimate reconstruction. Stalagmite records are providing very valuable new insights into past climate (including past forcing) from many areas where we hitherto had no paleoclimatic reconstructions. Dominik's email address is: fleitman@geo.umass.edu Regards Ray At 03:33 AM 11/29/2005, you wrote: Dear all, After discussing the issue of past climate variability during the past years, this topic remained a burning issue for PAGES, CLIVAR, the wide scientific community and the public. Especially the fact that the late 20th century warmth is most probably anomalous in the context of the past 1,000-2,000 years fuelled this discussion. Significant differences and uncertainties exist, however, between various estimates with regard to both empirical reconstructions and model simulations. - Therefore: PAGES/CLIVAR is pleased to announce a workshop that aims at making progress in that respective field of research! >From June 7 to June 10 2006, we would like to invite a group of approx. 25 to 30 scientists (see attached email list, including you!) for extended discussions at a nice location in the Swiss alps (Wengen or Mürren). Timing of the event will allow travel afterwards to a facultative excursion on June 11 directly to the HOLIVAR meeting in London that starts on June 12. The workshop is entitled: "Past Millennia Climate Variability: Proxy based reconstructions, Modeling and Methodology - Synthesis and Outlook" Funding is provided by PAGES and EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) and the workshop is scientifically organized by Phil Jones, Heinz Wanner, Mike Mann, Keith Briffa and the PAGES IPO in Bern. As a major outcome, the group is expected to publish a peer-reviewed summary paper. Please have a look at the attached first circular for further information and let me know by January 31th if you are able to attend this event! For information on PAGES/CLIVAR, please have a look at the attached document CLIVAR-PAGES-info.pdf. We are looking forward to meeting you - hopefully at the latest in June! In behalf of the organizing committee! Christoph Kull -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 Raymond S. Bradley Director, Climate System Research Center* Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Morrill Science Center 611 North Pleasant Street AMHERST, MA 01003-9297 Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 *Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 <[1] http://www.paleoclimate.org> Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html Publications (download .pdf files): [3]http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradleypub.html 3833. 2005-11-30 15:35:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 15:35:45 -0700 from: IPCC-WG1 subject: [Wg1-ar4-las] Third Lead Author Meeting - Update to: Wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu, wg1-ar4-re@joss.ucar.edu Dear Colleagues, The WG1 LA3 website has recently been updated! A programme (including chapter room assignments) is now available on the website and is attached here. Some of you may be contacted separately by us or your CLAs regarding the cluster sessions and cross-chapter topics. Additional detailed maps have also been posted on the website to assist you in locating your chapter room, the plenary, etc. Each chapter room will come equipped with laptop, projector, screen, and one copy each of the FOD, the WG1 Third Assessment Report and the recently published IPCC Special Report on Ozone and Climate. FOD review comments will be available electronically, but if you would like a hardcopy, please bring this with you to Christchurch,. Updated information may be located at: URL: [1]http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/meeting/WG1-LA3/restricted/WG1-LA3_partic.html UserName: WG1-LA3 Password: Christchurch If you have not already done so, please do register for meals (lunches) and the optional social event (conference dinner) at: [2]https://events.conference.canterbury.ac.nz/ei/getdemo.ei?id=32&s=_1LG0Q27FA (also linked from our website). Best regards, Melinda Tignor WGI TSU -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IPCC WGI TSU NOAA Chemical Sciences Division 325 Broadway DSRC CSD08 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Phone: +1 303 497 7072 Fax: +1 303 497 5686/5628 Email: [3]ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WG1LA3_Programme.pdf" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-las mailing list Wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-las 2833. 2005-12-01 10:42:18 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Tim Osborn" date: Thu Dec 1 10:42:18 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: ENSO and Hadcm3 to: "Rob Wilson" , "Brohan, Philip" Rob et al this looks good on the surface and would have been well worth including - IF - as you say , the Cook and the Mann reconstructions had been independent. I do not believe they are. Surely Mann included the Texas/Mexico tree-ring data (produced largely by Stahle) in predictors - perhaps in the form of major PC amplitude series ? We need to check this . I am sure these are the major contributer to Ed's reconstruction . At 14:26 30/11/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: Hi Philip, Tim and Keith, if you have a minute, any comments on my musings below would be greatly appreciated. thanks Rob ---------------------- in trying to address some of Mike Evans' comments, I am going to add an extra section to the paper - essentially comparing the reconstruction and models to ENSO. Spectral analysis (MTM) of the coral recon, and the ALL run for HADCM3 identifies significant (99%) spectral peaks at secular (>~90 yrs) scales and within the ENSO bandwidth. ECHO-G does not show any ENSO equivalent spectral peaks at this high confidence limit, although some spectral peaks are identified at the 95% level. In general the MTM spectra for the coral recon and HADCM3 ALL are surprisingly similar - see attached. However, after high pass filtering the time series with an 8 yr Gaussian filter, there is little coherence between the coral recon and HADCM3 (r = -0.03) I chose Ed's NINO3 TR based reconstruction for comparative analysis - he reconstructed Dec-Feb NINO3 SSTS back to 1408. This reconstruction is completely independent to the coral recon. I thought this better than Mann's NINO3 recon as it included some coral data. Anyway, after high pass (8 yr) filtering, over the 1870-1978, the correlation between instrumental annual tropical SSTs and Dec-Feb NINO3 SSTs = 0.76. The correlation between the coral recon and TR NINO3 recon over the same period = 0.47. Weaker, but the series are after all independent. Again, there is no coherence between HADCM3 and Ed's NINO3 recon. So - if I interpret these results correctly, HADCM3 does portray variability at the ENSO time-scale, but this variability has NOT been 'tuned' to the real world - i.e. the model all run does not correlate with reality. I am sure I am not the first to notice this - is there any relevant references? -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4487. 2005-12-02 09:37:23 ______________________________________________________ cc: Stefan Rahmstorf , stocker@climate.unibe.ch, Malcolm Hughes , "Raymond S. Bradley" , Caspar Ammann , Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 09:37:23 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Your recent article and Fox News to: Juerg Luterbacher , Heinz Wanner Dear Juerg and Heinz, I consider both of you friends, and so its a bit awkward to have to send this email. Its probably not a surprise to you that many of us are disconcerted in the wording of the abstract (the offending sentences provided below for those who not seen) in the recent Quat. Sci. Rev article you were both co-authors on. I am surprised that the two of you would sign on to this. Whle many of the scientific points are valid, the interpretation and word choice is not objectively defensible. It isn't my purpose to get into technical details here, though one obvious point is that greater variability may, in many cases, actually indicate increased sensitivity to radiative forcing, yielding precisely the opposite policy implication from the one you cite. I think you need to see how this is already being played in the U.S. media: [1]http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,177380,00.html Heinz in particular: I think you've been around long enough to know that this would play right into the hands of the contrarians, so I'm particularly disappointed in your complicity. This makes the job all that much more difficult for those of us who are trying to fight the disinformation campaign. I *know* that neither of you will feel good about that. Mike So, what would it mean, if the reconstructions indicate a larger (Esper et al., 2002; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) or smaller (Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999) temperature amplitude? We suggest that the former situation, i.e. enhanced variability during pre-industrial times, would result in a redistribution of weight towards the role of natural factors in forcing temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing the impact of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted scenarios. If that turns out to be the case, agreements such as the Kyoto protocol that intend to reduce emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, would be less effective than thought. -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [2]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [3]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 4908. 2005-12-09 15:07:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 9 Dec 2005 15:07:35 +0000 (GMT) from: Martin Juckes subject: First draft to: mitrie -- Anders Moberg , Eduardo Zorita , hegerl@duke.edu, Jan Esper , Keith Briffa , Myles Allen , Nanne Weber , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hello, here, at last, is a draft review. It is still rough, but I would appreciate any comments on the from and content. There are probably plenty of key papers I have forgotten to mention. I've organised the discussion of the various reconstructions into thematic sections. I've also added a couple of plots of my own, going through the steps of the Mann et al. reconstruction. I am now sceptical about the ability of his network to reconstruct temperatures back to 1000AD, but back to 1400AD appears to be robust. The quality of these figures is currently very bad: I'll deal with that soon. I don't want to over emphasise the McIntyre and McKitrick claims, but I thought it was important to go through the major issues. I've used the Briffa et al. (2001) reconstruction back to 1400AD rather than the Briffa (2000) reconstruction back to 0, because the former publication says more about the segment length curse. cheers, Martin Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\mitrie_03.pdf" 4201. 2005-12-13 00:54:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith Briffa" , date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 00:54:40 -0500 from: "Wahl, Eugene R" subject: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues to: "Jonathan Overpeck" Hello Jonathan: 1) I want you to know that we heard from Steve Schneider today that our paper with Climatic Change has been provisionally accepted for publication. The provisions Steve outlined are ones we fully accept and will implement (extra statistics of merit and remaking of graphics), so this paper can be viewed as accepted, I should think. Caspar and I are getting right on it. We wanted you to know this ASAP. 2) The Ammann-Wahl GRL comment on the MM GRL paper from early 2005 is being sent for final review along with a response by MM that GRL is soliciting. We had thought, based on info from James Famiglietti (editor), that this article had been accepted and the response from MM was just being sought. We did not realize that the entire package of comment and response would be put through a final review. We just heard about this last Friday. Sorry that we had that one mistaken. Hope you are well. Best wishes on IPCC work. Peace, Gene Dr. Eugene R. Wahl Asst. Professor of Environmental Studies Alfred University 607-871-2604 1 Saxon Drive Alfred, NY 14802 1704. 2005-12-14 10:56:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: celineh@ldeo.columbia.edu, James.Todd@noaa.gov date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 10:56:42 -0500 (EST) from: Richard Seager subject: two new research papers on North American drought, etc. to: david@atmos.washington.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, gilbert.p.compo@noaa.gov, adai@ucar.edu, Tom.Delworth@noaa.gov, cdeser@ucar.edu, randall.m.dole@noaa.gov, David.Enfield@noaa.gov, ffye@uark.edu, gutzler@unm.edu, whiggins@ncep.noaa.gov, martin.hoerling@noaa.gov, randal.koster@gsfc.nasa.gov, ekalnay@atmos.umd.edu, Arun.Kumar@noaa.gov, gabriel.lau@noaa.gov, Ants.Leetmaa@noaa.gov, dennisl@u.washington.edu, Kingste.Mo@noaa.gov, nigam@atmos.umd.edu, jto@u.arizona.edu, siegfried.d.schubert@nasa.gov, dstahle@uark.edu, ronald.stouffer@noaa.gov, rowan@met.rdg.ac.uk, trenbert@ucar.edu, connie.woodhouse@noaa.gov Dear colleagues, I have attached two papers recently submitted to J. Climate. The first is a modeling and observational study of the 1998-2004 North American drought. The second is an analysis of tree ring records of the Medieval megadroughts of the American West which seeks to place them in the context of historical droughts. This one is authored by my student, Celine Herweijer. Comments welcome. These papers, and several others, can also be dowloaded from: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/index.shtml Unlimited access to all the CCM3 model simulations (16 member ensembles, 1856 to April 2005, GOGA, POGA and POGA-ML - with TAGA in progress) can be found at: http://kage.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/SOURCES/.LDEO/.ClimateGroup/.PROJECTS/.CCM3/ Happy holidays to all! Richard -- Richard Seager Doherty Senior Research Scientist Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory Rt 9W, Palisades, NY 10964 Tel: 845-365-8743 FAX: 845-365-8736 email: seager@ldeo.columbia.edu Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\seager_2006.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Herweijer_NADA_joc.pdf" 1507. 2005-12-14 17:10:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Stefan Rahmstorf , stocker@climate.unibe.ch, Malcolm Hughes , "Raymond S. Bradley" , Caspar Ammann , Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck , juerg@giub.unibe.ch date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 17:10:47 +0100 from: Heinz Wanner subject: Our article in QSR to: mann@meteo.psu.edu Dear Mike, back from the AGU in S.F. I found your comment about our short QSR article. I tried to understand your concern, and I think I can do it. Let me tell first that I always supported the MBH 98 and your other publications in their general statements even I always warned my students about the problem of a precise estimation of the amplitudes. I also often defended your work in European newspapers and in TV interviews and always said that human influence is crucial and greenhouse gas concentrations grow. I very often argued with your, Jim Hansens and others stuff and fought with sceptics directly. I always voted in the way that we will get hundreds of new reconstructions but no change of the general structure and statements. I also had discussions with Hans von Storch because, in my view, he pushes the adaptation part too much (and does in fact not think about the poor populated areas like Bangladesh who have no penny to do adaptation!). There is a minor difference between our argumentation which is reflected in the last sentence of our article. Let me try to explain what this difference is: First of all, many European colleagues have the chance to talk with ministers, parliament members and directors of federal agencies directly. Secondly, we often have open discussions with greenhouse gas sceptics where we only have a chance if we are strict and precise, but also critical against our methods and findings. Thirdly, and that is probably the most important statement, we got a terrible warning shot across the bows in Europe with the whole debate on forest decline in the 1980s. Almost all forecasts were wrong. Therefore, I am very careful with my statements, and this last sentence was a statement showing that we have to be critical with the assessment of our methodological instruments. When talking with ministers (and I know our president very well) I am also open minded in the way that I show them that temperature is steadily rising, mostly induced by daily increasing greenhouse gas emissions. But we have to take in mind that this temperature trend, linear or not, is clearly superimposed with possible decadal oscillators (e.g., in Europe by NAO /AMO processes). What happens with the public opinion if we get another ten cold winters or our temperature estimates of the past get a slight correction? I am convinced that the way we actually go is quite successful. Also realize that we set up a national platform on our academy of sciences which informs policy and industry and organizes one luncheon talk on climate change issues for ministers and parliament members given by important scientists during each parliament session. That is quite successful. Finally, I think our standpoints are not far away. I only believe that our freedom to talk directly with the responsible politicians gives us the opportunity to express our position in an extremely open way. Therefore, it could be that I would not have supported to write such a sentence when living in a very big country not having our chances to talk with opinion leaders. Anyway, I do not have the feeling that we are not travelling in the same ship or that we fight in different armies, on the contrary! Merry Christmas, Heinz --------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Heinz Wanner, Prof., Director of NCCR (National Center of Competence in Research in Climate) --------------------------------------------------------------- Office Institute of Geography: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 8885 Phone +41 (0)31 631 3160 Fax +41 (0)31 631 8511 Fax +41 (0)31 631 4383 www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch e-mail: heinz.wanner@giub.unibe.ch --------------------------------------------------------------- 3590. 2005-12-14 19:20:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: Peter Lemke , k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, olgasolomina date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 19:20:09 +0100 (MET) from: Georg Kaser subject: IPCC AR4 to: Hans Oerlemans Dear Hans, at the IPCC Lead Author meeting taking presently place in Christchurch, NZ, it was suggested that I ask you to provide us with curves such as in your Science paper but showing the glacier retraet only instead of the reconstructed temperature. The retreat curves would fit into the Chapter 4.5 on "Observations: Changes in Glaciers and ice Caps". It was agreed that the temperature curve such as published will be handled by the Palaeoclimate team in Chapter 6. I would be glad if you could also send me the numbers in order to allow me to adapt the figure layout to the general Chapter design. If it makes it easier for you, you can also provide me with the numbers only and I can compile the respective graph. I hope this does not cause to much work for you and I look forward to keep in touch. I will be visiting some of the NZ glaciers together with Peter Lemke next week and will be back in Karthaus for Christmas. Best wishes and looking forward to see you in Obergurgl, Georg Georg Kaser ------------------------------------------------- Institut fuer Geographie Innrain 52 A-6020 INNSBRUCK AUSTRIA Tel: ++43 512 507 5407 Fax: ++43 512 507 2895 http://meteo9.uibk.ac.at/IceClim/CRYO/cryo_a.html 2436. 2005-12-16 17:15:04 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Dec 16 17:15:04 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: Salvage plan for severe droughts project to: "Phil Jones" Hi Phil, from the message below and one from Gerry which you were also cc'd on, and also from speaking to Rob on the phone, I have to say that they're not too chuffed about my revelation of errors in the scenarios. They (Rob) did, however, very much appreciate our honesty and openness in announcing the problems. At first I thought that we could just tell them about ARPEGE errors, but in fact HIRHAM errors are just as large. The problems are indeed large and couldn't be glossed over if we ever hoped to publish them. Rob has proposed the plan below. The crux of it is items 3 and 4 below, in which Steven Wade could re-run the old (wrong) flows with a simpler yield model (item 4) and if it gave similar results to the water companies' own results, then he could also use his simpler model with the new (correct) flows (item 3) and thus obtain the necessary correct results. Apparently he can do this quicker and cheaper than the water companies can. Obviously (4) should be done before (3), because if he can't replicate their results with the old flows, there's little point him using the new flows. The problem for us is that Steven would require more money. He is talking about £3k (including overheads I think). I've looked at the PMA accounts for this project and there is apparently >£5k (*plus* overheads) of staff costs that is currently unspent. I'm not sure if you have plans/commitments for this. I think it was originally partly for Adam (I never understood why Janice only gave him a 5 month contract rather than a 6 month one - that extra month would have been very useful with hindsight!) and partly for us. If possible can we talk on Monday AM before the Christmas lunch about this plan and whether we are happy to go along with it, including switching £3k of money from UEA to HR-Wallingford? I know you'll have many things to catch up on, but Steven would need to get going before Christmas if he were to have some results in time for the project meeting in mid Jan. Cheers Tim Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 16:29:20 +0000 From: "Rob Wilby" To: , , , , Subject: Salvage plan for severe droughts project ** High Priority ** Dear All Having discussed the matter with each of you I'm proposing the following six-point salvage plan: 1. Rebrand the old runs as "sensitivity" tests of the OSAY and MOSPA models. Tim will perform some additional analyses and provide additonal commentary on how representative our envelope of three runs are of the broader family of GCM/RCM combinations. 2. Evaluate differences between the old runs and new runs for the 2050s and 2080s. Tim will also undertake this quick assessment and circulate plots as per 2020s. 3. CRU and HR will negotiate reprofiling/contracting of resources to enable Steven to perform runs using latest scenarios and a generic yield assessment tool. This could potentially bring added-value to the project by enabling a consistent modelling approach to be performed for both regions. 4. Steven will apply the same generic tool to the old runs to assess its ability to replicate MOSPA and OSAY runs. 5. The new runs will be presented by Steven to the PSG on 12 Jan 2006, by powerpoint presentation. 6. Steven to receive general comments on the draft interim report as circulated, and to weave in the old (sensivity) and new (generic) results in the final report. None of the above would, of course, preclude Gerry from re-running OSAY with the new inflow sequences once he can summon the time/energy/enthusiasm. Likewise for Janet. However, one potentially useful outcome of this fix maybe that we find the Steven's 'magic' spreadsheet model closely replicates the behaviour of MOSPA and/or OSAY. In which case we will all have learnt something! Unless I hear any strong objections, I hope that everyone is content with this pragmatic line. Thanks for your constructive input along the way. Rob 2018. 2005-12-18 13:53:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 13:53:03 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi Chapter 6 Friends - Just wanted to thank you all for a great IPCC meeting and solid progress toward the SOD of Chapter 6, as well as give you a report on the TS meeting that took place on Friday. I'm in transit, so haven't been able to see any emails, but I suspect Eystein is also sending some updates on what we need to be doing. We'll have to work fast and hard to make all the deadlines, but I think its safe to say that our chapter will have real impact. I want to personally thank you for your dedication to our team effort! PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING CAREFULLY The TS/SPM meeting on Friday was exhausting, as appears to be traditional for all things IPCC. But, it was quite impressive in terms of how paleo was viewed by the broader WG1 team of authors. This is reflected in the decision to consider (without any pushing from me, believe it or not) several new figures from our chapter. Below I list these along with the others that will need refinement for use by the TS. Please note where I insert "ACTION ITEM" - these are very time sensitive assignments that should be carried out ASAP (i.e., before the new year where possible). Note that everything (i.e., figures) in the TS will also have to be in our chapter. 1) the orbital box. Eystein and I have the draft completed by Valerie et al in New Zealand. We will read/edit (ACTION ITEM) and send around to the group for further editing. The TS version might have to be altered to reflect the broader audience, and I'm not yet sure what figure would best go with the TS version. I believe Valerie (ACTION ITEM) is exploring (with Stefan?) a nice figure that illustrates the mechanisms of orbital forcing. 2) there will also be an model evaluation box in the TS that will have paleo. Once I get more feedback on this (Chap 8 is leading on this box), I'll connect the rest of our team with this effort, with Bette in the role of lead chap 6 person. 3) there will a sea level box led by Chap 5. I'm not sure what the fig will look like in this box, but if Dick (ACTION ITEM) can produce his new Chap 6 sea level figure FAST, we can float it as a possible contributor to the TS Box figure. It would be great to get paleo sea level perspectives in this box! 4) there will be expanded discussion of abrupt change with focus on paleo - Richard Alley is leading this, and I think that will be a real plus in making sure the discussion isn't just model based 4) Keith's sites through time figure is also still a TS item. There will hopefully also be a fig showing the distribution of instrumental sites. Keith has the ACTION ITEM on his figure. Peck and Eystein can help get the data released to Keith and Tim if needed - just let us know. 5) Keith's 6.8 figure will have to be worked on to find the best mode of presentation, and I have a separate email on this one for him and Tim. The TS team would like to see inserted on the fig (e.g., along the lower edge of the figure, perhaps) some depiction of how the site number used changes back in time, and some color coding to denote how our expert judgement suggests the implied confidence in the recons change back in time. I'm guessing this will require some phone conversations to think through with Keith (ACTION ITEM for Eystein, Peck and Keith). 6) A NEW FIGURE - depicting inferred solar forcing over the last X centuries. The request is that we show Judith Lean et al's latest for 1600 to present. This could include the volcanic forcing too, but it seems more appropriate that we stick with our plan to add this to the expanded 6.8. We'll have to try both figs (this new one, and the expanded 6.8) figure w/ and w/o the volcanic series (i.e., detrended multi-core average excess sulfate from each of two polar regions) on each fig. I think Keith/Tim gets the ACTION ITEM on all this figure stuff - Perhaps David (ACTION ITEM) can send Judith's latest solar recon to Keith? 7) Expanded/modified recent forcing figureS by Fortunat (ACTION ITEM). One will be for Chap 6, the other will combine Chap 2 and 6 perspectives into a single figure for the TS. I'll send a separate fig to Fortunat with the details, but everyone likes his new rate of change depiction, and the TS team also wants a ice core tropospheric aerosol record too (e.g., for the last couple centuries - Jean Jouzel thought we could do this using Greenland ice core data, and we'd add this to the TS fig (and either a chap 2 or 6 figure, since everyting in the TS has to also be in a chapter. 8) A NEW FIGURE for the TS (and maybe not chapt 6, since we already have 6.8 and 6.10 with most of the info) should be the one of Keith's that we showed in our plenary talk on Thursday - the multi-model range of simulated change over the last 1000 (red shading) superimposed on our chap 6 observed record (represented by grey shading as in the fig we showed). Requested modifications for Keith/Tim (ACTION ITEM) include: a) using a 20th century ref period as in the current Fig 6.8, b) adding (where possible) simulations that include natural forcing only (and thus not enough warming in 20th century) and c) adding one or more EMIC simulations using the new Lean solar recon (at least over the last 400 years, with all the other forcing). This last one is tricky, since no one at the TS mtg thought such a simulation exists, BUT it seems it is ok for us to get/use a new long simulation by one of the EMIC models used in Chap 10. Peck (ACTION ITEM) needs to figure out how to get this, but Thomas Stocker indicated he'd help. Stafan - what about you guys doing this? Who else could we ask for fast turnaround? 9) Another NEW FIGURE (that I actually fought including since we don't want to be seen showing off our own stuff) of Last Interglacial (LIG) Change. The TS team (and Susan) really liked this paleo message, so we came up with a proposed scheme (which I already discussed with Bette - who has the ACTION ITEM) that will involve the inclusion of more than one LIG climate simulation, plotted with observations superimposed, and perhaps more than one LIG ice sheet reconstruction as well. Should Tarasov and Peltier be considered for this fig (forced by ice-core inferred LIG climate)? Are there others? For this figure to work, it has to be a synthesis of multiple studies, not just the recent Otto-Bleisner et al effort. So, that is the news - all good from the view point of chap 6 exposure/impact, but of course, not so good in terms of the additional fast-turn-around work that is needed. The other tough issue is that - after several negotiating sessions with Susan (the last one with Jean Jouzel helping) - the best we could do is get our page limit increased from 30 to 35 pages. That doesn't sound too bad, except that we have to a) get all our existing material into less space than now (we're currently at an estimated 36 pages) AND b) get the new figures mentioned above in (two I think - solar, plus the LIG fig). We can do it, but everyone has to be thinking NOW about how to reduce our text. Again, many thanks for all the travel and hard work over the last two weeks. Also (in advance) for all the hard work coming up this month and the next two. Best, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4076. 2005-12-18 13:53:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 13:53:11 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: more on TS feedback to: Keith Briffa , Bette Otto-Bleisner , Eystein Jansen Dear Keith, Bette and Eystein: This email should be read after the one to the entire team - it provides post LA3/TS feedback on figures. Since Bette is going on a short vacation, she and I emailed about her new LIG fig before I left, so she's ready to go when she gets home. Keith (and Tim), on the other hand, have lots to consider, and I just wanted to reiterate to you (and Bette) that it's a priority for me and Eystein to help you brainstorm all these figures. Here are a few more comments I got on Keith/Tim Figs: For 6.8: 1) removing the oldest portion of the records from the plot is only ok IF: -we can justify on an obvious and objective basis - for example that sample depth hits goes down significantly at ca. 700AD or wherever we want to chop it. -We don't remove part of the series that will give rise to accusations of bias Thus, it might be better to leave as was in the FOD, just to be safe, or to try multiple versions. 2) had a long talk with Martin Manning about the idea of multiple plots, vs just the existing one (by the way, the TS team WANTS the instrumental part of the fig as we agreed to modify in Chap 6 sessions). I think the best idea is to keep the bottom panel as is, with modifications - keep the error bars as is - try a version with some sort of annually-resolved volc forcing placed at the top of the panel, with eruption (sufate) lines sticking down farther for big eruptions - try inserting some representation of average (median? or?) sample depth along the bottom (time) side of the panel. This will thus show, lots of sample depth back to ca. 1700, then less and less (in steps?). Martin suggests we go one step farther and color the sample depth part of the plot with different colors, based on our expert judgement of confidence. We could have two or three colors - one color for the interval overwhich we have "very likely" confidence (e.g., in the exec summary) and another for just "very." perhaps we want a third for some term reflecting "don't trust inferences regarding hemispheric temp that much over this interval" - this will obviously take some thinking/creativity, but this fig will go all the way to the TSM, so it's worth the effort. 3) linear axis for sure 4) if would still be good to try a density shaded version of this plot (instead of all the recon lines) for the TS and SPM. When in doubt, make an extra version. We can then share with our team and with Susan. Thanks for doing this! Also, FYI, Gabe indicated that her regional plots were not scaled separately. Surprising, but maybe the models are actually better than we thought. Best, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3004. 2005-12-18 21:51:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 21:51:10 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Re: the to: Stefan Rahmstorf Hi Stefan and Chap 6 friends - normalizing to the 20th century was the way we agreed to do it at the TS/SPM meeting, so thanks for your independent endorsement. Even more thanks to Keith and Tim who need to work on all these figs. Best, Peck >Dear chapter 6 colleagues, > >I'd like to come back to a point Susan made in the plenary: the >millennium reconstruction curves should be normalised for the 20th >Century (or parts thereof, e.g. mid 20th Century). I strongly agree >with Susan here, for the reasons below: >- normal people (policy makers) think of climate change relative to >recent experience, not in some abstract absolute terms >- those data do in fact not give absolute temperatures, but those >relative to the recent instrumental period - they are in fact >normalised for this (a very valid point that Gabi made in the >plenary) >- the main conclusion we draw is that recent warmth is unprecedented >- if you want to see this, you must show the curves relative to the >recent times >- it makes no sense if the proxy curves diverge strongly in the 20th >Century, since this is only period where we really know what the >climate was like. > >These arguments are slightly different for the model results, hence >in the current draft, the proxy data are normalised for recent >climate, and the model results for something else. For the models >maybe we need to debate this - the main reason for doing it >differently for the models seems to be to show the correction for >the Von Storch result. When the AR4 comes out, this will be in the >published literature, so no need to make our whole graph look >different just to cater for one bad model run. I think the models >would be better shown normalised the same way as the proxy data; >this would also help avoid possible confusion. But I very strongly >feel that the simplified joint plot shown in the plenary, with the >envelopes of both models and proxies, definitely must be normalised >for the 20th Century. > >Cheers, Stefan -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 922. 2005-12-19 01:47:16 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 01:47:16 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] the sports-implement-that-must-not-be-mentioned to: Jonathan Overpeck Dear chapter 6 colleagues, I'd like to come back to a point Susan made in the plenary: the millennium reconstruction curves should be normalised for the 20th Century (or parts thereof, e.g. mid 20th Century). I strongly agree with Susan here, for the reasons below: - normal people (policy makers) think of climate change relative to recent experience, not in some abstract absolute terms - those data do in fact not give absolute temperatures, but those relative to the recent instrumental period - they are in fact normalised for this (a very valid point that Gabi made in the plenary) - the main conclusion we draw is that recent warmth is unprecedented - if you want to see this, you must show the curves relative to the recent times - it makes no sense if the proxy curves diverge strongly in the 20th Century, since this is only period where we really know what the climate was like. These arguments are slightly different for the model results, hence in the current draft, the proxy data are normalised for recent climate, and the model results for something else. For the models maybe we need to debate this - the main reason for doing it differently for the models seems to be to show the correction for the Von Storch result. When the AR4 comes out, this will be in the published literature, so no need to make our whole graph look different just to cater for one bad model run. I think the models would be better shown normalised the same way as the proxy data; this would also help avoid possible confusion. But I very strongly feel that the simplified joint plot shown in the plenary, with the envelopes of both models and proxies, definitely must be normalised for the 20th Century. Cheers, Stefan _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4726. 2005-12-19 13:26:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 13:26:13 +0000 from: Gerard van der Schrier subject: Re: "Bjerknes hypothesis" reprints to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, It would be nice (though not essential) to have them here: I've already send the pdf and handed out print-outs of the article to quite a few people. About work: I've been busy with preparing some of the work we promised to do in the (new) RAPID proposal. However, most of the time has been spend on the fingerprinting work. I was not very happy with the relatively low skill of the fingerprinting method in determining MHT (Meridional Heat Transport) changes. So I first tried to redo the analysis with two response patterns, hoping to be able to estimate the *meridional structure* of the oceanic heat transport. That did not work. So I tried something less ambitous: estimating oceanic heat transport at 30N using two response patterns (instead of one). What I did is: 1) estimate the response pattern using regression techniques on MHT and sea surface height (SSH) 2) you can then orthogonalize the MHT time series and SSH maps by using ordinary Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization. 3) the second response pattern is determined using regression on the *reduced* MHT and *reduced* SSH. Unfortunately, that did not give the improvement I hoped it would. In fact: using the fingerprinting with two response pattern does not outperform the single-pattern estimates. The motivation to search for ways to 'tweak' the fingerprinting method into giving more reliable estimates are the recent results by Knight et al (2005, GRL doi:10.1029/2005GL024233) and Bryden et al (Nature) who estimated an increase and decrease of the overturning over the past decades respectively. It would be nice to contribute to this discussion with the TOPEX/Poseidon data. We can still contribute to this, but with the rather large error bounds..... We aimed the study to comment on the predictability of trends in MHT using SSH data. Initially, we wanted to construct a 'predictability matrix' by making estimates and 95%-confidence intervals for 10, 20 and 40 year trends. I was wondering, wouldn't it be more relevant for the paleo-perspective, to make a different predictability matrix. One that gives estimates of error bounds for trends in MHT based on single or multiple (point) reconstructions of SSH? This would be more closely associated with your original idea (only based on the marine climate rather than the terrestrial climate). The question we might try to answer is then: what is the skill of estimating trends in MHT based on reconstructions of SSH in key areas (like west-Iceland or Bermuda). I know that there are (or will be shortly) reconstructions of SSH from west-Iceland (I'm not sure of Bermuda though) which would give some extra relevance to this. Will you be at CRU this week, and next week? Cheers, Gerard > Hi Gerard, > > just to let you know that your reprints for this arrived from the > publishers of Climate Dynamics. I can send them on to you in The > Netherlands, unless you're happy to wait until you visit next year to > collect them in person? Please let me know. > > Best wishes and Happy Christmas! > > Cheers > > Tim > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > -- ---------------------------------------------------------- Gerard van der Schrier Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) dept. KS/VO PO Box 201 3730 AE De Bilt The Netherlands schrier@knmi.nl ---------------------------------------------------------- 287. 2005-12-19 18:10:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 18:10:53 -0000 from: "David Willans" subject: Training Dates to: Hello, Some dates for your new year diary... Futerra are launching a series of masterclasses on communicating sustainable development in early 2006. Communicating Climate Change on a Local and Regional Level 12.30 - 5.30pm Thursday 26 January 2006 Communicating Sustainable Development 12.30 - 5.30pm Thursday 23 February 2006 Communicating Climate Change 12.30 - 5.30pm Thursday 30 March 2006 Using international case studies and proven communication tools, each session is designed to build your confidence to plan and implement campaigns. "Enthusiastic and friendly trainers with a tremendous amount of knowledge" - Past participant For more information or to book then please see the attached flyer or visit our [1]website. The groups will be kept to only 15 people, so please sign up early to avoid disappointment. The Futerra team wish you a very merry Christmas! David David Willans Consultant Futerra Sustainability Communications Ltd [2]www.futerra.co.uk We've moved! Please note new contact details Direct Dial: +44 (0)20 7378 4003 Switchboard: +44 (0)20 7378 4000 84 Long Lane London SE1 4AU Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Futerra_Masterclass.pdf" 2807. 2005-12-20 08:49:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: Thomas Stocker date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 08:49:32 +0100 from: Fortunat Joos subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi Peck, We are running the BernCC and we could do simulations with different solar (and volcanic and GHGs) forcing over the past millennium. The BernCC as used in the AR4 includes the 2.5d Stocker Wright climate model and a marine carbon cycle (Marchal et al.) and LPJ for the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Bern CC is used in chapter 2 for the calculation of the carbon cycle impulse response function to determine GWPs. It is used in chapter 10 to do the set of SRES simulations and stabilization pathways scenarios (SP450 to SP1000). It is forseen that we will run the mitigation scenarios for WGIII with BernCC as well (The plan was to have those in WGI report already, but the scenarios are not in press within the WGI time line). The plan is to to run BernCC with different climate sensitivities following the probability density function for clim. sens given in chapter 10. This would yield a band of climate response both for the old and new solar forcing. I think using BernCC would provide a nice, consistent link of chap 6 with chap2, chap10 and WGIII modelling efforts. Finally, it is always good to have more than one model for consistency check. With best regards, Fortunat Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > Hi Stefan and team - great. David Rind is getting the solar forcing > series de jour (latest Lean). I expect Keith back on line soon, and then > he can help us figure out what type of simulation(s) we'd like, and what > other forcings we ought to use. My take is that it would be good to use > the same forcing used in the runs currently in Fig 6.10 (or at least the > "best" of those runs - subjective, I'm sure, and all with the old larger > amplitude Lean solar), but with the new reduced amplitude forcing. > > Fig 6.10 currently has the Bauer et al, 2003 run w/ CLIMBER - is it > CLIMBER2? Could/should we just re-run with the new solar in place of the > old solar (I don't have the paper here - was the solar used scaled to > Lean?). > > I'll cc this to the entire team, as there might be other ideas on how to > do this - I think we would want two simulations over the last 400 years. > One w/ the old Lean solar, one with the new. If we could use one of the > existing plotted runs as the "old Lean" run, then we only need one new > run. The idea is to show what difference TAR solar (old Lean) vs. AR4 > solar (new Lean) means. > > So, lets see what Keith and others say, and then line things up to get > the run done. If we can do it w/ CLIMBER, great. If we need to involve > another EMIC (assuming we're not going to get a AOGCM run done in less > than a month), then we need to line that up. Whatever model we use, it > should be one already in use by the AR4, so we don't have to worry about > the results being published - just the model. Make sense? > > Thanks again for the quick reply. Best, Peck > >> Dear Jonathan, >> >> concerning item 8: we can deliver a millennium simulation with any >> given forcing provided to us within days. (Actually takes just about 1 >> hour to run on the computer with CLIMBER-2.) >> >> Cheers, >> Stefan > > > -- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 2701. 2005-12-21 10:55:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , joos date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 10:55:06 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch to: Stefan Rahmstorf Hi Stefan - thanks. I'm not sure if we can more that fast, but if David can get the new solar forcing, then perhaps you could then run w/ the other forcings the same as the Bauer runs? I'll cc to Fortunat too, since he has offered to carry out the same runs w/ the Bern model - he might have the new/latest Lean solar series too (I think back to 1600 only). It would be good to have both CLIMBER (two versions) and BernCC runs with the same (or very similar) forcing, so perhaps you two can coordinate in European time. Keep Eystein and me posted - David too, in case Fortunat already has the new solar series. Thanks, Peck >Hi Jonathan, I got a positive response for doing those runs with >both models - but it would be good to get the forcing time series we >should use within a day, to start at least the slow model before the >christmas holidays. > >Stefan -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2323. 2005-12-23 16:12:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 16:12:23 +0000 from: Gerard van der Schrier subject: first version of ms. to: Tim Osborn , Keith Briffa Tim & Keith, Attached is a first version of a ms. about the optimal fingerprinting technique, and an application to relate changes in sea-surface height (SSH) to changes in oceanic meridonal heat transport (MHT). There are two major differences with an earlier version we discussed some time ago. The estimates of trends in MHT from trends in SSH is beefed up some more. The correlation between observed and estimated changes in MHT is now 0.71, which is not too bad. The 95% confidence levels decreased to 1.39, which is still pretty large (the trends in MHT are normalized, so the confidence limits are 1.39 sd.......). On the other hand, this would relate to a trend of 0.039 PW/yr. Bryden et al. recently found a change over the 1990s of 0.33-0.5 PW/yr. The other thing is that my estimate of a change in MHT over the 1990s, based on altimetry data, is now negligable. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Knight et al. (2005) recently estimated an *increase* in MHT, Bryden et al estimated a *decrease* and Carl Wunsch has a submitted paper in which he estimates the change in MHT to be negligable too. The ms. still feels a bit 'thin'. I've tried two approaches to extent this analysis. One was Tim's suggestion to look at trends of 5, 20 and 40 years too. You see that the skill of the method increases somewhat when the length of the trend is increased to 20 years, to decrease again for 40 years. The improvement in skill, and the associated decrease of the size of the confidence limits, is not very impressive. The other way was to use multiple patterns to estimate trends in MHT. For some reason, this did not yield better estimates of MHT compared to the univariate approach. This is somewhat counter-intuative though. I don't know why the skill does not improve. Cheers, Gerard -- ---------------------------------------------------------- Gerard van der Schrier Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) dept. KS/VO PO Box 201 3730 AE De Bilt The Netherlands schrier@knmi.nl ---------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\artv13.pdf" se a comment or a discussion about this curious result. 3- The trend recorded from the early 19th century is estimated about 0.7, 1{degree sign}C. The start of the temperature increase occurs very early and the amplitude seems overestimated for tropical latitude. There are no comments in the discussion. -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [11]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- _____________________________________________________________________ Professor Sandy Tudhope, AND: Sandy Tudhope, School of GeoSciences, Ocean Sciences Building Rm521, Grant Institute, Box 355351,University of Washington, Edinburgh University, Seattle, WA 98195-5351,U.S.A. West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW,U.K. PACKAGES AND MAIL REQUIRING SIGNATURE: Marine Sciences Building Room G, Tel: +44 131 650 8508 University of Washington, +44 131 650 4842 (sec.) Seattle, WA 98195-7940,U.S.A. Fax: +44 131 668 3184 e-mail: sandy.tudhope@ed.ac.uk Tel: +1 206 221 5630 (work) +1 206 612 3243 (mobile) Fax: +1 206 685 3351 e-mail: -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [12]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 1335. 2005-11-29 10:26:33 ______________________________________________________ cc: Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , Heinz Wanner date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 10:26:33 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: Workshop: Participants/ 1. Circular to: Christoph Kull Christoph, Can I please have an explanation of what happened here???? You sent out a list yesterday of partipipants that we had all agreed upon. Today, you sent out emails to a DIFFERENT list, inviting an additional participant (Zorita) who we SPECIFICALLY DISCUSSED and decided (as I understood it) would not be invited because of personality conflict issues. At the very least, this needed further discussion, not unilateral overruling without notice. I'd like an explanation of what happened here. I do not believe that this event will be constructive and amicable with Zorita's participation. If the recommendaitons of the organizers are not going to be followed, I am unsure I can participate in or endorse this event. If Zorita is in, I am out! Mike Christoph Kull wrote: >Dear all, >I incorporated the comments received so far regarding the 1. Circular for >the "Past Millennia Variability" workshop and made the final version >(attached). >Attached is also the finalized participants list. >Please have a quick look - thanks! We once also discussed having an Asian >participant. Actually, there is nobody from Japan or China on the list... > >If you agree, I will send out the information (1. Circular, "Invited >Participant list") this week. > >Thanks for your feedback, >All the best, >Christoph > > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 2677. 2005-11-29 11:22:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa , Heinz Wanner , Phil Jones date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 11:22:37 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: workshop: participants / 1.Circular to: Christoph Kull Dear All, There is only one reasonable solution now. Since Zorita has been invited, so also must be Eugene Wahl of Alfred University ([1]wahle@alfred.edu) who has been doing extensive work in testing the statistical reconstruciton methods...This would introduce back some degree of balance in the participants. If Wahl is invited, I would reconsider participating in this, Mike Christoph Kull wrote: Dear Mike, I got the email below from you, where you replied on the note from Keith and Phil....I therefore assumed that you both can live with the suggestion made by Keith and Heinz of having a member of the German team (Zorita) on board. We will certainly expect from all participants to contribute in a constructive way! In the cc list I copied the PAGES/CLIVAR chairs and the PAGES chair for information on the ongoing activity. This seems justified to me. Sorry to boarder you - this really wasn't intended! All the best, Christoph On 28.11.2005 17:40, "Michael E. Mann" [2] wrote: I agree. looks very great. I'm at an NSF meeting right now, and may mention this is an upcoming activity relevant to the ESH program... mike Phil Jones wrote: sending again as Mike's old email address is there. Christoph, I have nothing further to add. Happy for invitations to go out. Phil At 16:20 28/11/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: Christoph just back from Switzerland - only comment is that I really believe inviting Eduardo Zorita to incorporate a member of the German team would seem justified and necessary. Obviously, inviting Hans von Storch is not practical,but Eduardo is , I believe, objective and fair and would certainly contribute constructively (and could include relevant work from Gerd Burger from Berlin, who published the recent Tellus paper on the various simulated reconstructions). best wishes all Keith At 13:40 28/11/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: Dear all, I incorporated the comments received so far regarding the 1. Circular for the "Past Millennia Variability" workshop and made the final version (attached). Attached is also the finalized participants list. Please have a quick look - thanks! We once also discussed having an Asian participant. Actually, there is nobody from Japan or China on the list... If you agree, I will send out the information (1. Circular, "Invited Participant list") this week. Thanks for your feedback, All the best, Christoph -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [4]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [5]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [6]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 4862. 2005-11-29 13:11:49 ______________________________________________________ cc: Christoph Kull , Heinz Wanner , Phil Jones date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 13:11:49 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: workshop: participants / 1.Circular to: Keith Briffa ok Keith--thanks for clarifying. It sounds like it was just an unfortunate but entirely honest mistake. Clearly too late to uninvite Eduardo, and I take Keith's word for it that he will "behave" appropriately. I would urge the invitation of Eugene Wahl too, if people don't object, just to provide a bit more balance in terms of the people who have actually been testing the multivariate calibration methods, etc... Would people agree to this? thanks mike Keith Briffa wrote: > Mike > > I absolutely accept responsibility for this fuck up - I simply did a > multiple reply when I suggested this and did not notice that your > email address was wrong. I thought there might be some sensitivity > (hence my remark that it was clearly inappropriate to ask Hans) but > my suggestion was just that - a suggestion , which required your > acceptance, and motivated only by recent contact with Eduardo where > he was clearly not in any way personally critical of you - but > honestly seemed motivated by a wish to advance the science. > I too misinterpreted your silence as agreement . > We simply will not allow you to withdraw . You know perfectly well > that you are too important in all this to take such action. If it > requires my talking to Eduardo and getting him to withdraw , then so > be it. However, please accept that I (and I believe Eduardo) consider > Hans' attack to have been unacceptable , and consider that as a group > we need to move the subject on. I think we should try to build bridges > here . > > > > with genuine apologies for all this > sincerely > Keith > > At 16:11 29/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: > >> Keith's comment was never sent to me. I only saw Phil's comment >> (which apparently had Keith's comment below. Howver Keith never sent >> this to me!). We had specifically discussed this in Bern and decided >> that Zwiers could more objectively reflect that group than either >> Zorita for Von Storch who have been involved in ad hominem public >> attacks against us. Again, we had a specific discussion about this. >> >> I hereby formally withdraw my participation from this event. >> >> Mike >> >> Christoph Kull wrote: >> >>> >>> Dear Mike, >>> I got the email below from you, where you replied on the note from >>> Keith and >>> Phil....I therefore assumed that you both can live with the >>> suggestion made >>> by Keith and Heinz of having a member of the German team (Zorita) on >>> board. >>> We will certainly expect from all participants to contribute in a >>> constructive way! >>> In the cc list I copied the PAGES/CLIVAR chairs and the PAGES chair for >>> information on the ongoing activity. This seems justified to me. >>> Sorry to boarder you - this really wasn't intended! >>> >>> >>> >>> All the best, >>> Christoph >>> >>> >>> >>> On 28.11.2005 17:40, "Michael E. Mann" >>> wrote: >>> >>> >>>> >>>> I agree. looks very great. I'm at an NSF meeting right now, and may >>>> mention this is an upcoming activity relevant to the ESH program... >>>> >>>> mike >>>> >>>> Phil Jones wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>>> >>>>> sending again as Mike's old email address is there. >>>>> >>>>> Christoph, >>>>> I have nothing further to add. Happy for invitations to go >>>>> out. >>>>> >>>>> Phil >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> At 16:20 28/11/2005, Keith Briffa wrote: >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Christoph >>>>>> just back from Switzerland - only comment is that I really believe >>>>>> inviting Eduardo Zorita to incorporate a member of the German team >>>>>> would seem justified and necessary. Obviously, inviting Hans von >>>>>> Storch is not practical,but Eduardo is , I believe, objective and >>>>>> fair and would certainly contribute constructively (and could >>>>>> include >>>>>> relevant work from Gerd Burger from Berlin, who published the recent >>>>>> Tellus paper on the various simulated reconstructions). >>>>>> best wishes all >>>>>> Keith >>>>>> >>>>>> At 13:40 28/11/2005, Christoph Kull wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Dear all, >>>>>>> I incorporated the comments received so far regarding the 1. >>>>>>> Circular for >>>>>>> the "Past Millennia Variability" workshop and made the final >>>>>>> version >>>>>>> (attached). >>>>>>> Attached is also the finalized participants list. >>>>>>> Please have a quick look - thanks! We once also discussed having an >>>>>>> Asian >>>>>>> participant. Actually, there is nobody from Japan or China on the >>>>>>> list... >>>>>>> >>>>>>> If you agree, I will send out the information (1. Circular, >>>>>>> "Invited >>>>>>> Participant list") this week. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Thanks for your feedback, >>>>>>> All the best, >>>>>>> Christoph >>>>>>> -- >>>>>>> Christoph Kull >>>>>>> Science Officer >>>>>>> PAGES IPO >>>>>>> Sulgeneckstrasse 38 >>>>>>> CH-3007 Bern >>>>>>> Switzerland >>>>>>> >>>>>>> phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 >>>>>>> fax: +4131 312 31 68 >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> -- >>>>>> Professor Keith Briffa, >>>>>> Climatic Research Unit >>>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. >>>>>> >>>>>> Phone: +44-1603-593909 >>>>>> Fax: +44-1603-507784 >>>>>> >>>>>> http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Prof. Phil Jones >>>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>>>> University of East Anglia >>>>> Norwich Email >>>>> p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>>>> NR4 7TJ >>>>> UK >>>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: >> mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> >> > > -- > Professor Keith Briffa, > Climatic Research Unit > University of East Anglia > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > > Phone: +44-1603-593909 > Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 312. 2005-11-29 15:08:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 15:08:10 -0000 from: "Dean Sec" subject: Biggest ever global climate change demo to: From: info-admin@uea.ac.uk [mailto:info-admin@uea.ac.uk] On Behalf Of SU Comms (STU) sucomm Campaign against Climate Change Make sure you get to BRITAIN'S BIGGEST-EVER DEMO AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE on Sat Dec 3rd in London The London Climate March will go past 10 Downing Street where a letter will be handed in demanding that the British government reaffirm its commitment to a climate treaty with legally binding targets, before finishing at the US embassy where the speakers will include Michael Meacher MP (Environment Minister 1997-2003) George Monbiot Norman Baker MP (Lib-Dem Shadow Environment Minister) Caroline Lucas MEP (Green Party) Plus Fazlun Khalid from IFEES (Islamic Foundation for Ecology and the Environmental Sciences), Ruth Jarman from Christian Ecology Link, Peter Bunyard science editor from the Ecologist, Nick Rau from Friends of the Earth and a speaker from Rising tide. More details www.campaigncc.org There are around 30 coaches planned for the day (see http://forum.campaigncc.org/?q=coachesDec3 ) And demonstrations or events are planned in 30 countries around the world on December 3rd (see www.globalclimatecampaign.org) This includes a minimum of 15,000 people in Montreal, a protest in Iquitos in the Amazon Rainforest, a Global Warming Party in New Orleans USA, a 'Climate Walk' in 7 Australian cities, a demo of thousands in Istanbul, and events/demos in places from Cape Town to Helsinki and San Francisco to Seoul. However big this demo will be it still needs to be bigger - please spread the word to whoever you haven't already, pass around this email, distribute some leaflets, help build this demo in any way you can think of... And be there - its going to be a fantastic day ! _______________________________________________ Info mailing list Info@uea.ac.uk http://www.uea.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/info 2028. 2005-11-29 17:42:25 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Wahl, Eugene R" date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 17:42:25 -0700 from: Caspar Ammann subject: IPCC ref. regarding McIntyre and McKitrick to: Jonathan Overpeck , Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn Hi everybody, just a quick update that I got word from the Chief Editor of GRL (Jay Famiglietti) that our comment in GRL about the MM paper earlier this year has finally been accepted. They are now soliciting a response from McIntyre and McKitrick, but that should now move rather quickly. No official word on the Climatic Change paper just yet. Cheers, Caspar PS Here the full references: Ammann C.M., and E.R. Wahl, accepted: Comment on “Hockey sticks, principle components, and spurious significance” by S. McIntyre and R. McKitrick, Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted. Wahl, E.R and C.M. Ammann, revised: Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence. Climatic Change, revised and in review. -- Caspar M. Ammann National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80307-3000 email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 3744. 2005-11-30 08:01:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 08:01:22 +0000 from: Phil Jones subject: Fwd: Released today - climate change and the media research to: cru.internal@uea.ac.uk Reply-To: From: "solitaire townsend" To: Cc: , , , , , , , , , Subject: Released today - climate change and the media research Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2005 18:18:54 -0000 Organization: Futerra X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook, Build 11.0.5510 Thread-Index: AcX1EVqI9JITiU0lRO+BLKrnd1fxbw== X-AntiAbuse: This header was added to track abuse, please include it with any abuse report X-AntiAbuse: Primary Hostname - ocean.dns-nac-zone.com X-AntiAbuse: Original Domain - uea.ac.uk X-AntiAbuse: Originator/Caller UID/GID - [47 12] / [47 12] X-AntiAbuse: Sender Address Domain - futerra.co.uk X-Source: X-Source-Args: X-Source-Dir: X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 X-UEA-Spam-Level: / X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO Is the media helping to tackle climate change? The Futerra team have read every story on climate change across the main UK newspapers over the past three months. Interesting work but, as we suspected, the UK print news media portrays climate change as a big nasty with no real solution. Coverage on the solutions or ideas for what the public can do is hard to find. In the attached report youll also find rankings of the top10 newspapers and journalists covering climate change. We hope you find this brief report interesting. Please contact us with any comments, questions or observations. Best wishes The Futerra Team Futerra Sustainability Communications Ltd + 44 (0)20 7378 4000 [1]www.futerra.co.uk Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Climate Fear v Climate Hope1.pdf" 1547. 2005-11-30 09:21:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 09:21:37 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: IPCC ref. regarding McIntyre and McKitrick to: Caspar Ammann Thanks Caspar. This is good news. Please keep us posted. Best, Peck >Hi everybody, > >just a quick update that I got word from the Chief Editor of GRL >(Jay Famiglietti) that our comment in GRL about the MM paper earlier >this year has finally been accepted. They are now soliciting a >response from McIntyre and McKitrick, but that should now move >rather quickly. No official word on the Climatic Change paper just >yet. > >Cheers, >Caspar > >PS Here the full references: > >Ammann C.M., and E.R. Wahl, accepted: Comment on "Hockey sticks, >principle components, and spurious significance" by S. McIntyre and >R. McKitrick, Geophys. Res. Lett., accepted. > >Wahl, E.R and C.M. Ammann, revised: Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, >Hughes reconstruction of surface temperatures: Examination of >criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate >evidence. Climatic Change, revised and in review. > > >-- >Caspar M. Ammann >National Center for Atmospheric Research >Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology >1850 Table Mesa Drive >Boulder, CO 80307-3000 >email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2554. 2005-11-30 11:04:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: Phil Jones , Keith Briffa date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 11:04:40 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: [Fwd: u seen?] to: Tim Osborn fair enough, I'll go w/ flimsy. The real problem is the fairly inflammatory wording of this, and the really flawed interpretations w.r.t. implicatinos for natural vs. anthropogenic variaiblity. normally I'd ignore, but the fact that Andy Revkin received this suggests they are trying to publicize this review paper, which I find a bit odd... mike Tim Osborn wrote: > Hi Mike, > > I've seen this before (and probably Keith has too) because our EU > "SOAP" project supported Rob Wilson, the second author. I'd say that > it is "flimsy" rather than "shoddy"! Still, it's only supposed to be > a "viewpoint" rather than new science. > > Tim > > At 15:31 30/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: > >> thought you guys would be interested. pretty shoddy stuff in my view... >> >> mike >> >> -- >> Michael E. Mann >> Associate Professor >> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) >> >> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 >> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 >> The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu >> University Park, PA 16802-5013 >> >> http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm >> >> >> >> >> Return-Path: >> X-Original-To: mann@meteo.psu.edu >> Delivered-To: mann@meteo.psu.edu >> Received: from tr12n04.aset.psu.edu (tr12g04.aset.psu.edu >> [128.118.146.130]) >> by mail.meteo.psu.edu (Postfix) with ESMTP id 2027520401A >> for ; Wed, 30 Nov 2005 10:15:10 -0500 (EST) >> Received: from nytimes.com (nat-hq-gate-02.nytimes.com >> [199.181.175.222]) >> by tr12n04.aset.psu.edu (8.13.2/8.13.2) with ESMTP id >> jAUFF8P22437280 >> for ; Wed, 30 Nov 2005 10:15:08 -0500 >> Message-Id: <6.1.2.0.2.20051130101420.02d14460@smtp-store.nytimes.com> >> X-Sender: anrevk@smtp-store.nytimes.com >> X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.1.2.0 >> Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 10:14:45 -0500 >> To: mann@psu.edu >> From: Andy Revkin >> Subject: u seen? >> Mime-Version: 1.0 >> Content-Type: multipart/alternative; >> boundary="=====================_79165303==.ALT" >> X-NYTOriginatingHost: , 10.149.64.222 >> X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-sophos >> X-PSU-Spam-Flag: NO >> X-PSU-Spam-Hits: 0.695 >> X-PSU-Spam-Level: * >> X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.0.2 (2004-11-16) on >> mail.meteo.psu.edu >> X-Spam-Level: >> X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.6 required=5.0 >> tests=AWL,BAYES_00,HTML_00_10, >> HTML_MESSAGE,MIME_QP_LONG_LINE autolearn=no version=3.0.2 >> >> purely fyi.. u seen? >> >> >>> Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 24, Issues 20-21 , November 2005, >>> Pages 2164-2166 >>> http://tinyurl.com/b95ee >>> >>> Climate: past ranges and future changes >>> >>> Jan Esper a), Robert J.S. Wilson b), David C. Frank a), Anders >>> Moberg c), Heinz Wanner d) and Jürg Luterbacher d) >>> >>> a) Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland >>> b) School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, >>> Edinburgh, UK >>> c) Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, >>> Sweden >>> d) NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, 3012 >>> Bern, Switzerland >>> >>> Abstract >>> >>> Comparison of large-scale temperature reconstructions over the past >>> millennium reveals agreement on major climatic episodes, but >>> substantial divergence in reconstructed (absolute) temperature >>> amplitude. We here detail several research priorities to overcome >>> this 'amplitude desideratum', and discuss the relevance of this >>> effort for the prediction of future temperature changes and the >>> meaning of the Kyoto protocol. >>> >>> Persisting controversy (Regalado, 2005) surrounding a pioneering >>> northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction (Mann et al., 1999) >>> indicates the importance of such records to understand our changing >>> climate. Such reconstructions, combining data from tree rings, >>> documentary evidence and other proxy sources are key to evaluate >>> natural forcing mechanisms, such as the sun's irradiance or volcanic >>> eruptions, along with those from the widespread release of >>> anthropogenic greenhouse gases since about 1850 during the >>> industrial (and instrumental) period. We here demonstrate that our >>> understanding of the shape of long-term climate fluctuations is >>> better than commonly perceived, but that the absolute amplitude of >>> temperature variations is poorly understood. We argue that the >>> knowledge of this amplitude is critical for predicting future >>> trends, and detail four research priorities to solve this >>> incertitude: (i) reduce calibration uncertainty, (ii) preserve >>> 'colour' in proxy data, (iii) utilize accurate instrumental data, >>> and (iv) update old and develop new proxy data. >>> >>> When matching existing temperature reconstructions (Jones et al., >>> 1999; Mann et al., 1999; Briffa, 2000; Esper et al., 2002; Moberg, >>> et al., 2005) over the past 1000 years, although substantial >>> divergences exist during certain periods, the timeseries display a >>> reasonably coherent picture of major climatic episodes: 'Medieval >>> Warm Period', 'Little Ice Age' and 'Recent Warming' (Fig. 1). >>> However, when calibrated against instrumental temperature records, >>> these same reconstructions splay outwards with temperature >>> amplitudes ranging from 0.4 to 1.0 °C for decadal means (Moberg et >>> al., 2005). Further, a comparison of commonly used regression and >>> scaling approaches shows that the reconstructed absolute amplitudes >>> easily vary by over 0.5 °C, depending on the method and instrumental >>> target chosen (Esper et al., 2005). Overall, amplitude discrepancies >>> are in the order of the total variability estimated over the past >>> millennium, and undoubtedly confuse future modelled temperature >>> trends via parameterisation uncertainties related to inadequately >>> simulated behaviour of past variability. >>> >>> Fig. 1. Course of temperature variations. Large-scale temperature >>> reconstructions scaled to the same mean and variance over the common >>> period 1000-1979 AD, and their arithmetic mean. The normalisation >>> highlights the similarity between the records, but broadly ignores >>> the differing calibration statistics with instrumental data, and >>> their particular 'shapes' and distribution of variance, e.g. during >>> the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The average >>> correlation between the original reconstructions is 0.47, and 0.64 >>> after smoothing (as done in the figure using a 40-year low-pass >>> filter). Lag-1 autocorrelations range from 0.52 (Jones98) to 0.93 >>> (Moberg05; with no variability <4 years represented). >>> >>> >>> Solutions to reduce calibration uncertainty include the use of >>> pseudo-proxy experiments (Osborn and Briffa, 2004; von Storch et >>> al., 2004) derived from ensemble simulations of different models >>> (Knutti et al., 2002; Stainforth et al., 2005) to test statistical >>> calibration methods, e.g. principal component (Cook et al., 1994) >>> and timescale-dependent (Osborn and Briffa, 2000) regression. Such >>> analyses, however, should mimic the character of empirical proxy >>> data, e.g. the decline of replication (numbers of sites, quality per >>> site) back in time, and the addition of noise typical to empirical >>> proxy data (i.e., not just white; Mann and Rutherford, 2002). >>> Further, reconstructions from areas such as Europe (Luterbacher et >>> al., 2004; Xoplaki et al., 2005), where long instrumental series and >>> high densities of proxy records exist, allow extended calibration >>> periods and increased degrees of freedom enabling the assessment of >>> robust relationships at all timescales (i.e., low and high >>> frequency), both critical to reduce calibration uncertainty. >>> Subsequent comparison of such regional records with hemispheric >>> reconstructions that can be downscaled should provide greater >>> understanding of reconstructed amplitudes at larger spatial scales. >>> >>> Accurate preservation and assessment of low-to-high frequency >>> variation ('colour') in proxy data, and a selected use of certain >>> frequency bands that best fit those of instrumental data (Moberg et >>> al., 2005), are further desirable when compiling large-scale >>> reconstructions that seek to yield the true absolute temperature >>> amplitude. This approach, however, requires a comprehensive >>> examination of regional proxy data including the seasonality of >>> temperature signals, and a selection of only those records that >>> effectively capture low-frequency climate variation. Inclusion of >>> regional tree ring records in which long-term trends are not >>> preserved, should be avoided in efforts to reconstruct low frequency >>> temperature variations (Esper et al., 2004; Melvin, 2004). In these >>> data, such limitations primarily occur when age-related biases from >>> tree-ring series are individually estimated and removed ('the >>> segment length curse' Cook et al., 1995). Similar considerations >>> apply to documentary evidence, long isotope records and other proxy >>> sources that should, on a site-by-site basis, be examined for >>> potential low-frequency limitations. >>> >>> The instrumental target data chosen (Esper et al., 2005), and >>> adjustments made to these data are also vital to the reconstructed >>> amplitude. A recent analysis of a carefully homogenised instrumental >>> network from the Alps and surrounding areas (Böhm et al., 2001), for >>> example, shows the annual temperature trend over the last ca 110 >>> years to be 1.1 °C-twice that observed over the same alpine >>> gridboxes in the global dataset provided by the Climatic Research >>> Unit (Jones et al., 1999). Such changes in the character of >>> observational data, resulting from homogeneity adjustments and >>> methodology differences (Moberg et al., 2003), directly affect the >>> temperature amplitude in proxy-based reconstructions, since >>> instrumental calibration sets the pulse in these paleorecords >>> (Büntgen et al., 2005). Accurate instrumental data are therefore >>> crucial to the reconstructed amplitude, and this again argues for >>> regional studies where mutual verification between proxy and >>> instrumental records is viable (Frank and Esper, 2005; Wilson et >>> al., 2005). >>> >>> Finally, more proxy data covering the full millennium and >>> representing the same spatial domain as the instrumental target data >>> (e.g., hemisphere) are required to solve the amplitude puzzle. The >>> current pool of 1000-year long annually resolved temperature proxies >>> is limited to a handful of timeseries, with some of them also >>> portraying differing seasonal (e.g., summer or annual) responses. >>> Furthermore, the strength of many of these local records and >>> literally all tree ring chronologies varies and almost always >>> declines back in time (Cook et al., 2004). The reasons are manifold >>> and include dating uncertainty, loss of signal fidelity in the >>> recent period, assumptions about signal stationarity, reduction of >>> sample replication, etc., and are generally not considered in the >>> uncertainty estimates of combined large-scale reconstructions. Also, >>> data from the most recent decades, absent in many regional proxy >>> records, limits the calibration period length and hinders tests of >>> the behaviour of the proxies under the present 'extreme' temperature >>> conditions. Calibration including the exceptional conditions since >>> the 1990s would, however, be necessary to estimate the robustness of >>> a reconstruction during earlier warm episodes, such as the Medieval >>> Warm Period, and would avoid the need to splice proxy and >>> instrumental records together to derive conclusions about recent >>> warmth. >>> >>> So, what would it mean, if the reconstructions indicate a larger >>> (Esper et al., 2002; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) >>> or smaller (Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999) temperature >>> amplitude? We suggest that the former situation, i.e. enhanced >>> variability during pre-industrial times, would result in a >>> redistribution of weight towards the role of natural factors in >>> forcing temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing the impact >>> of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted scenarios. >>> If that turns out to be the case, agreements such as the Kyoto >>> protocol that intend to reduce emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse >>> gases, would be less effective than thought. This scenario, however, >>> does not question the general mechanism established within the >>> protocol, which we believe is a breakthrough. >>> >>> doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.07.001 >>> Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved. >> >> >> >> Andrew C. Revkin, Science Reporter, The New York Times >> 229 West 43d St. NY, NY 10036 >> Tel: 212-556-7326, 914-441-5556 (mobile); Fax: 509-357-0965 >> Recent Arctic coverage: www.nytimes.com/pages/science/sciencereport >> Book on the Amazon: The Burning Season ( www.islandpress.org/burning ) >> Acoustic-Roots Band: www.sonicbids.com/unclewade > > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 4486. 2005-11-30 13:25:54 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, mann@psu.edu date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 13:25:54 -0500 from: "raymond s. bradley" subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop to: christoph.kull@pages.unibe.ch Dear Christoph: I regret that I will not be able to make it to the PAGES/CLIVAR meeting in early June. I am already committed to fieldwork in the High Arctic at that time. May I suggest that you invite Dominik Fleitmann to the meeting. He has some very important high resolution records from speleothems and I don't see anybody on the list who represents that approach to paleoclimate reconstruction. Stalagmite records are providing very valuable new insights into past climate (including past forcing) from many areas where we hitherto had no paleoclimatic reconstructions. Dominik's email address is: fleitman@geo.umass.edu Regards Ray At 03:33 AM 11/29/2005, you wrote: Dear all, After discussing the issue of past climate variability during the past years, this topic remained a burning issue for PAGES, CLIVAR, the wide scientific community and the public. Especially the fact that the late 20th century warmth is most probably anomalous in the context of the past 1,000-2,000 years fuelled this discussion. Significant differences and uncertainties exist, however, between various estimates with regard to both empirical reconstructions and model simulations. - Therefore: PAGES/CLIVAR is pleased to announce a workshop that aims at making progress in that respective field of research! >From June 7 to June 10 2006, we would like to invite a group of approx. 25 to 30 scientists (see attached email list, including you!) for extended discussions at a nice location in the Swiss alps (Wengen or Mürren). Timing of the event will allow travel afterwards to a facultative excursion on June 11 directly to the HOLIVAR meeting in London that starts on June 12. The workshop is entitled: "Past Millennia Climate Variability: Proxy based reconstructions, Modeling and Methodology - Synthesis and Outlook" Funding is provided by PAGES and EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) and the workshop is scientifically organized by Phil Jones, Heinz Wanner, Mike Mann, Keith Briffa and the PAGES IPO in Bern. As a major outcome, the group is expected to publish a peer-reviewed summary paper. Please have a look at the attached first circular for further information and let me know by January 31th if you are able to attend this event! For information on PAGES/CLIVAR, please have a look at the attached document CLIVAR-PAGES-info.pdf. We are looking forward to meeting you - hopefully at the latest in June! In behalf of the organizing committee! Christoph Kull -- Christoph Kull Science Officer PAGES IPO Sulgeneckstrasse 38 CH-3007 Bern Switzerland phone: +4131 312 31 53/33 fax: +4131 312 31 68 Raymond S. Bradley Director, Climate System Research Center* Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts Morrill Science Center 611 North Pleasant Street AMHERST, MA 01003-9297 Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 *Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 <[1] http://www.paleoclimate.org> Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html Publications (download .pdf files): [3]http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradleypub.html 3833. 2005-11-30 15:35:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 30 Nov 2005 15:35:45 -0700 from: IPCC-WG1 subject: [Wg1-ar4-las] Third Lead Author Meeting - Update to: Wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu, wg1-ar4-re@joss.ucar.edu Dear Colleagues, The WG1 LA3 website has recently been updated! A programme (including chapter room assignments) is now available on the website and is attached here. Some of you may be contacted separately by us or your CLAs regarding the cluster sessions and cross-chapter topics. Additional detailed maps have also been posted on the website to assist you in locating your chapter room, the plenary, etc. Each chapter room will come equipped with laptop, projector, screen, and one copy each of the FOD, the WG1 Third Assessment Report and the recently published IPCC Special Report on Ozone and Climate. FOD review comments will be available electronically, but if you would like a hardcopy, please bring this with you to Christchurch,. Updated information may be located at: URL: [1]http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/meeting/WG1-LA3/restricted/WG1-LA3_partic.html UserName: WG1-LA3 Password: Christchurch If you have not already done so, please do register for meals (lunches) and the optional social event (conference dinner) at: [2]https://events.conference.canterbury.ac.nz/ei/getdemo.ei?id=32&s=_1LG0Q27FA (also linked from our website). Best regards, Melinda Tignor WGI TSU -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IPCC WGI TSU NOAA Chemical Sciences Division 325 Broadway DSRC CSD08 Boulder, CO 80305, USA Phone: +1 303 497 7072 Fax: +1 303 497 5686/5628 Email: [3]ipcc-wg1@al.noaa.gov Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WG1LA3_Programme.pdf" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-las mailing list Wg1-ar4-las@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-las 2833. 2005-12-01 10:42:18 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Tim Osborn" date: Thu Dec 1 10:42:18 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: ENSO and Hadcm3 to: "Rob Wilson" , "Brohan, Philip" Rob et al this looks good on the surface and would have been well worth including - IF - as you say , the Cook and the Mann reconstructions had been independent. I do not believe they are. Surely Mann included the Texas/Mexico tree-ring data (produced largely by Stahle) in predictors - perhaps in the form of major PC amplitude series ? We need to check this . I am sure these are the major contributer to Ed's reconstruction . At 14:26 30/11/2005, Rob Wilson wrote: Hi Philip, Tim and Keith, if you have a minute, any comments on my musings below would be greatly appreciated. thanks Rob ---------------------- in trying to address some of Mike Evans' comments, I am going to add an extra section to the paper - essentially comparing the reconstruction and models to ENSO. Spectral analysis (MTM) of the coral recon, and the ALL run for HADCM3 identifies significant (99%) spectral peaks at secular (>~90 yrs) scales and within the ENSO bandwidth. ECHO-G does not show any ENSO equivalent spectral peaks at this high confidence limit, although some spectral peaks are identified at the 95% level. In general the MTM spectra for the coral recon and HADCM3 ALL are surprisingly similar - see attached. However, after high pass filtering the time series with an 8 yr Gaussian filter, there is little coherence between the coral recon and HADCM3 (r = -0.03) I chose Ed's NINO3 TR based reconstruction for comparative analysis - he reconstructed Dec-Feb NINO3 SSTS back to 1408. This reconstruction is completely independent to the coral recon. I thought this better than Mann's NINO3 recon as it included some coral data. Anyway, after high pass (8 yr) filtering, over the 1870-1978, the correlation between instrumental annual tropical SSTs and Dec-Feb NINO3 SSTs = 0.76. The correlation between the coral recon and TR NINO3 recon over the same period = 0.47. Weaker, but the series are after all independent. Again, there is no coherence between HADCM3 and Ed's NINO3 recon. So - if I interpret these results correctly, HADCM3 does portray variability at the ENSO time-scale, but this variability has NOT been 'tuned' to the real world - i.e. the model all run does not correlate with reality. I am sure I am not the first to notice this - is there any relevant references? -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4487. 2005-12-02 09:37:23 ______________________________________________________ cc: Stefan Rahmstorf , stocker@climate.unibe.ch, Malcolm Hughes , "Raymond S. Bradley" , Caspar Ammann , Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 09:37:23 -0500 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Your recent article and Fox News to: Juerg Luterbacher , Heinz Wanner Dear Juerg and Heinz, I consider both of you friends, and so its a bit awkward to have to send this email. Its probably not a surprise to you that many of us are disconcerted in the wording of the abstract (the offending sentences provided below for those who not seen) in the recent Quat. Sci. Rev article you were both co-authors on. I am surprised that the two of you would sign on to this. Whle many of the scientific points are valid, the interpretation and word choice is not objectively defensible. It isn't my purpose to get into technical details here, though one obvious point is that greater variability may, in many cases, actually indicate increased sensitivity to radiative forcing, yielding precisely the opposite policy implication from the one you cite. I think you need to see how this is already being played in the U.S. media: [1]http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,177380,00.html Heinz in particular: I think you've been around long enough to know that this would play right into the hands of the contrarians, so I'm particularly disappointed in your complicity. This makes the job all that much more difficult for those of us who are trying to fight the disinformation campaign. I *know* that neither of you will feel good about that. Mike So, what would it mean, if the reconstructions indicate a larger (Esper et al., 2002; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) or smaller (Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999) temperature amplitude? We suggest that the former situation, i.e. enhanced variability during pre-industrial times, would result in a redistribution of weight towards the role of natural factors in forcing temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing the impact of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted scenarios. If that turns out to be the case, agreements such as the Kyoto protocol that intend to reduce emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, would be less effective than thought. -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [2]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [3]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 4908. 2005-12-09 15:07:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 9 Dec 2005 15:07:35 +0000 (GMT) from: Martin Juckes subject: First draft to: mitrie -- Anders Moberg , Eduardo Zorita , hegerl@duke.edu, Jan Esper , Keith Briffa , Myles Allen , Nanne Weber , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Hello, here, at last, is a draft review. It is still rough, but I would appreciate any comments on the from and content. There are probably plenty of key papers I have forgotten to mention. I've organised the discussion of the various reconstructions into thematic sections. I've also added a couple of plots of my own, going through the steps of the Mann et al. reconstruction. I am now sceptical about the ability of his network to reconstruct temperatures back to 1000AD, but back to 1400AD appears to be robust. The quality of these figures is currently very bad: I'll deal with that soon. I don't want to over emphasise the McIntyre and McKitrick claims, but I thought it was important to go through the major issues. I've used the Briffa et al. (2001) reconstruction back to 1400AD rather than the Briffa (2000) reconstruction back to 0, because the former publication says more about the segment length curse. cheers, Martin Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\mitrie_03.pdf" 4201. 2005-12-13 00:54:40 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Keith Briffa" , date: Tue, 13 Dec 2005 00:54:40 -0500 from: "Wahl, Eugene R" subject: RE: Wahl-Ammann paper on MBH-MM issues to: "Jonathan Overpeck" Hello Jonathan: 1) I want you to know that we heard from Steve Schneider today that our paper with Climatic Change has been provisionally accepted for publication. The provisions Steve outlined are ones we fully accept and will implement (extra statistics of merit and remaking of graphics), so this paper can be viewed as accepted, I should think. Caspar and I are getting right on it. We wanted you to know this ASAP. 2) The Ammann-Wahl GRL comment on the MM GRL paper from early 2005 is being sent for final review along with a response by MM that GRL is soliciting. We had thought, based on info from James Famiglietti (editor), that this article had been accepted and the response from MM was just being sought. We did not realize that the entire package of comment and response would be put through a final review. We just heard about this last Friday. Sorry that we had that one mistaken. Hope you are well. Best wishes on IPCC work. Peace, Gene Dr. Eugene R. Wahl Asst. Professor of Environmental Studies Alfred University 607-871-2604 1 Saxon Drive Alfred, NY 14802 1704. 2005-12-14 10:56:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: celineh@ldeo.columbia.edu, James.Todd@noaa.gov date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 10:56:42 -0500 (EST) from: Richard Seager subject: two new research papers on North American drought, etc. to: david@atmos.washington.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, gilbert.p.compo@noaa.gov, adai@ucar.edu, Tom.Delworth@noaa.gov, cdeser@ucar.edu, randall.m.dole@noaa.gov, David.Enfield@noaa.gov, ffye@uark.edu, gutzler@unm.edu, whiggins@ncep.noaa.gov, martin.hoerling@noaa.gov, randal.koster@gsfc.nasa.gov, ekalnay@atmos.umd.edu, Arun.Kumar@noaa.gov, gabriel.lau@noaa.gov, Ants.Leetmaa@noaa.gov, dennisl@u.washington.edu, Kingste.Mo@noaa.gov, nigam@atmos.umd.edu, jto@u.arizona.edu, siegfried.d.schubert@nasa.gov, dstahle@uark.edu, ronald.stouffer@noaa.gov, rowan@met.rdg.ac.uk, trenbert@ucar.edu, connie.woodhouse@noaa.gov Dear colleagues, I have attached two papers recently submitted to J. Climate. The first is a modeling and observational study of the 1998-2004 North American drought. The second is an analysis of tree ring records of the Medieval megadroughts of the American West which seeks to place them in the context of historical droughts. This one is authored by my student, Celine Herweijer. Comments welcome. These papers, and several others, can also be dowloaded from: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/index.shtml Unlimited access to all the CCM3 model simulations (16 member ensembles, 1856 to April 2005, GOGA, POGA and POGA-ML - with TAGA in progress) can be found at: http://kage.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/SOURCES/.LDEO/.ClimateGroup/.PROJECTS/.CCM3/ Happy holidays to all! Richard -- Richard Seager Doherty Senior Research Scientist Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory Rt 9W, Palisades, NY 10964 Tel: 845-365-8743 FAX: 845-365-8736 email: seager@ldeo.columbia.edu Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\seager_2006.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Herweijer_NADA_joc.pdf" 1507. 2005-12-14 17:10:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: Stefan Rahmstorf , stocker@climate.unibe.ch, Malcolm Hughes , "Raymond S. Bradley" , Caspar Ammann , Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck , juerg@giub.unibe.ch date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 17:10:47 +0100 from: Heinz Wanner subject: Our article in QSR to: mann@meteo.psu.edu Dear Mike, back from the AGU in S.F. I found your comment about our short QSR article. I tried to understand your concern, and I think I can do it. Let me tell first that I always supported the MBH 98 and your other publications in their general statements even I always warned my students about the problem of a precise estimation of the amplitudes. I also often defended your work in European newspapers and in TV interviews and always said that human influence is crucial and greenhouse gas concentrations grow. I very often argued with your, Jim Hansens and others stuff and fought with sceptics directly. I always voted in the way that we will get hundreds of new reconstructions but no change of the general structure and statements. I also had discussions with Hans von Storch because, in my view, he pushes the adaptation part too much (and does in fact not think about the poor populated areas like Bangladesh who have no penny to do adaptation!). There is a minor difference between our argumentation which is reflected in the last sentence of our article. Let me try to explain what this difference is: First of all, many European colleagues have the chance to talk with ministers, parliament members and directors of federal agencies directly. Secondly, we often have open discussions with greenhouse gas sceptics where we only have a chance if we are strict and precise, but also critical against our methods and findings. Thirdly, and that is probably the most important statement, we got a terrible warning shot across the bows in Europe with the whole debate on forest decline in the 1980s. Almost all forecasts were wrong. Therefore, I am very careful with my statements, and this last sentence was a statement showing that we have to be critical with the assessment of our methodological instruments. When talking with ministers (and I know our president very well) I am also open minded in the way that I show them that temperature is steadily rising, mostly induced by daily increasing greenhouse gas emissions. But we have to take in mind that this temperature trend, linear or not, is clearly superimposed with possible decadal oscillators (e.g., in Europe by NAO /AMO processes). What happens with the public opinion if we get another ten cold winters or our temperature estimates of the past get a slight correction? I am convinced that the way we actually go is quite successful. Also realize that we set up a national platform on our academy of sciences which informs policy and industry and organizes one luncheon talk on climate change issues for ministers and parliament members given by important scientists during each parliament session. That is quite successful. Finally, I think our standpoints are not far away. I only believe that our freedom to talk directly with the responsible politicians gives us the opportunity to express our position in an extremely open way. Therefore, it could be that I would not have supported to write such a sentence when living in a very big country not having our chances to talk with opinion leaders. Anyway, I do not have the feeling that we are not travelling in the same ship or that we fight in different armies, on the contrary! Merry Christmas, Heinz --------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Heinz Wanner, Prof., Director of NCCR (National Center of Competence in Research in Climate) --------------------------------------------------------------- Office Institute of Geography: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 8885 Phone +41 (0)31 631 3160 Fax +41 (0)31 631 8511 Fax +41 (0)31 631 4383 www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch e-mail: heinz.wanner@giub.unibe.ch --------------------------------------------------------------- 3590. 2005-12-14 19:20:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: Peter Lemke , k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, olgasolomina date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 19:20:09 +0100 (MET) from: Georg Kaser subject: IPCC AR4 to: Hans Oerlemans Dear Hans, at the IPCC Lead Author meeting taking presently place in Christchurch, NZ, it was suggested that I ask you to provide us with curves such as in your Science paper but showing the glacier retraet only instead of the reconstructed temperature. The retreat curves would fit into the Chapter 4.5 on "Observations: Changes in Glaciers and ice Caps". It was agreed that the temperature curve such as published will be handled by the Palaeoclimate team in Chapter 6. I would be glad if you could also send me the numbers in order to allow me to adapt the figure layout to the general Chapter design. If it makes it easier for you, you can also provide me with the numbers only and I can compile the respective graph. I hope this does not cause to much work for you and I look forward to keep in touch. I will be visiting some of the NZ glaciers together with Peter Lemke next week and will be back in Karthaus for Christmas. Best wishes and looking forward to see you in Obergurgl, Georg Georg Kaser ------------------------------------------------- Institut fuer Geographie Innrain 52 A-6020 INNSBRUCK AUSTRIA Tel: ++43 512 507 5407 Fax: ++43 512 507 2895 http://meteo9.uibk.ac.at/IceClim/CRYO/cryo_a.html 2436. 2005-12-16 17:15:04 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Dec 16 17:15:04 2005 from: Tim Osborn subject: Fwd: Salvage plan for severe droughts project to: "Phil Jones" Hi Phil, from the message below and one from Gerry which you were also cc'd on, and also from speaking to Rob on the phone, I have to say that they're not too chuffed about my revelation of errors in the scenarios. They (Rob) did, however, very much appreciate our honesty and openness in announcing the problems. At first I thought that we could just tell them about ARPEGE errors, but in fact HIRHAM errors are just as large. The problems are indeed large and couldn't be glossed over if we ever hoped to publish them. Rob has proposed the plan below. The crux of it is items 3 and 4 below, in which Steven Wade could re-run the old (wrong) flows with a simpler yield model (item 4) and if it gave similar results to the water companies' own results, then he could also use his simpler model with the new (correct) flows (item 3) and thus obtain the necessary correct results. Apparently he can do this quicker and cheaper than the water companies can. Obviously (4) should be done before (3), because if he can't replicate their results with the old flows, there's little point him using the new flows. The problem for us is that Steven would require more money. He is talking about £3k (including overheads I think). I've looked at the PMA accounts for this project and there is apparently >£5k (*plus* overheads) of staff costs that is currently unspent. I'm not sure if you have plans/commitments for this. I think it was originally partly for Adam (I never understood why Janice only gave him a 5 month contract rather than a 6 month one - that extra month would have been very useful with hindsight!) and partly for us. If possible can we talk on Monday AM before the Christmas lunch about this plan and whether we are happy to go along with it, including switching £3k of money from UEA to HR-Wallingford? I know you'll have many things to catch up on, but Steven would need to get going before Christmas if he were to have some results in time for the project meeting in mid Jan. Cheers Tim Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2005 16:29:20 +0000 From: "Rob Wilby" To: , , , , Subject: Salvage plan for severe droughts project ** High Priority ** Dear All Having discussed the matter with each of you I'm proposing the following six-point salvage plan: 1. Rebrand the old runs as "sensitivity" tests of the OSAY and MOSPA models. Tim will perform some additional analyses and provide additonal commentary on how representative our envelope of three runs are of the broader family of GCM/RCM combinations. 2. Evaluate differences between the old runs and new runs for the 2050s and 2080s. Tim will also undertake this quick assessment and circulate plots as per 2020s. 3. CRU and HR will negotiate reprofiling/contracting of resources to enable Steven to perform runs using latest scenarios and a generic yield assessment tool. This could potentially bring added-value to the project by enabling a consistent modelling approach to be performed for both regions. 4. Steven will apply the same generic tool to the old runs to assess its ability to replicate MOSPA and OSAY runs. 5. The new runs will be presented by Steven to the PSG on 12 Jan 2006, by powerpoint presentation. 6. Steven to receive general comments on the draft interim report as circulated, and to weave in the old (sensivity) and new (generic) results in the final report. None of the above would, of course, preclude Gerry from re-running OSAY with the new inflow sequences once he can summon the time/energy/enthusiasm. Likewise for Janet. However, one potentially useful outcome of this fix maybe that we find the Steven's 'magic' spreadsheet model closely replicates the behaviour of MOSPA and/or OSAY. In which case we will all have learnt something! Unless I hear any strong objections, I hope that everyone is content with this pragmatic line. Thanks for your constructive input along the way. Rob 2018. 2005-12-18 13:53:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 13:53:03 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu Hi Chapter 6 Friends - Just wanted to thank you all for a great IPCC meeting and solid progress toward the SOD of Chapter 6, as well as give you a report on the TS meeting that took place on Friday. I'm in transit, so haven't been able to see any emails, but I suspect Eystein is also sending some updates on what we need to be doing. We'll have to work fast and hard to make all the deadlines, but I think its safe to say that our chapter will have real impact. I want to personally thank you for your dedication to our team effort! PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING CAREFULLY The TS/SPM meeting on Friday was exhausting, as appears to be traditional for all things IPCC. But, it was quite impressive in terms of how paleo was viewed by the broader WG1 team of authors. This is reflected in the decision to consider (without any pushing from me, believe it or not) several new figures from our chapter. Below I list these along with the others that will need refinement for use by the TS. Please note where I insert "ACTION ITEM" - these are very time sensitive assignments that should be carried out ASAP (i.e., before the new year where possible). Note that everything (i.e., figures) in the TS will also have to be in our chapter. 1) the orbital box. Eystein and I have the draft completed by Valerie et al in New Zealand. We will read/edit (ACTION ITEM) and send around to the group for further editing. The TS version might have to be altered to reflect the broader audience, and I'm not yet sure what figure would best go with the TS version. I believe Valerie (ACTION ITEM) is exploring (with Stefan?) a nice figure that illustrates the mechanisms of orbital forcing. 2) there will also be an model evaluation box in the TS that will have paleo. Once I get more feedback on this (Chap 8 is leading on this box), I'll connect the rest of our team with this effort, with Bette in the role of lead chap 6 person. 3) there will a sea level box led by Chap 5. I'm not sure what the fig will look like in this box, but if Dick (ACTION ITEM) can produce his new Chap 6 sea level figure FAST, we can float it as a possible contributor to the TS Box figure. It would be great to get paleo sea level perspectives in this box! 4) there will be expanded discussion of abrupt change with focus on paleo - Richard Alley is leading this, and I think that will be a real plus in making sure the discussion isn't just model based 4) Keith's sites through time figure is also still a TS item. There will hopefully also be a fig showing the distribution of instrumental sites. Keith has the ACTION ITEM on his figure. Peck and Eystein can help get the data released to Keith and Tim if needed - just let us know. 5) Keith's 6.8 figure will have to be worked on to find the best mode of presentation, and I have a separate email on this one for him and Tim. The TS team would like to see inserted on the fig (e.g., along the lower edge of the figure, perhaps) some depiction of how the site number used changes back in time, and some color coding to denote how our expert judgement suggests the implied confidence in the recons change back in time. I'm guessing this will require some phone conversations to think through with Keith (ACTION ITEM for Eystein, Peck and Keith). 6) A NEW FIGURE - depicting inferred solar forcing over the last X centuries. The request is that we show Judith Lean et al's latest for 1600 to present. This could include the volcanic forcing too, but it seems more appropriate that we stick with our plan to add this to the expanded 6.8. We'll have to try both figs (this new one, and the expanded 6.8) figure w/ and w/o the volcanic series (i.e., detrended multi-core average excess sulfate from each of two polar regions) on each fig. I think Keith/Tim gets the ACTION ITEM on all this figure stuff - Perhaps David (ACTION ITEM) can send Judith's latest solar recon to Keith? 7) Expanded/modified recent forcing figureS by Fortunat (ACTION ITEM). One will be for Chap 6, the other will combine Chap 2 and 6 perspectives into a single figure for the TS. I'll send a separate fig to Fortunat with the details, but everyone likes his new rate of change depiction, and the TS team also wants a ice core tropospheric aerosol record too (e.g., for the last couple centuries - Jean Jouzel thought we could do this using Greenland ice core data, and we'd add this to the TS fig (and either a chap 2 or 6 figure, since everyting in the TS has to also be in a chapter. 8) A NEW FIGURE for the TS (and maybe not chapt 6, since we already have 6.8 and 6.10 with most of the info) should be the one of Keith's that we showed in our plenary talk on Thursday - the multi-model range of simulated change over the last 1000 (red shading) superimposed on our chap 6 observed record (represented by grey shading as in the fig we showed). Requested modifications for Keith/Tim (ACTION ITEM) include: a) using a 20th century ref period as in the current Fig 6.8, b) adding (where possible) simulations that include natural forcing only (and thus not enough warming in 20th century) and c) adding one or more EMIC simulations using the new Lean solar recon (at least over the last 400 years, with all the other forcing). This last one is tricky, since no one at the TS mtg thought such a simulation exists, BUT it seems it is ok for us to get/use a new long simulation by one of the EMIC models used in Chap 10. Peck (ACTION ITEM) needs to figure out how to get this, but Thomas Stocker indicated he'd help. Stafan - what about you guys doing this? Who else could we ask for fast turnaround? 9) Another NEW FIGURE (that I actually fought including since we don't want to be seen showing off our own stuff) of Last Interglacial (LIG) Change. The TS team (and Susan) really liked this paleo message, so we came up with a proposed scheme (which I already discussed with Bette - who has the ACTION ITEM) that will involve the inclusion of more than one LIG climate simulation, plotted with observations superimposed, and perhaps more than one LIG ice sheet reconstruction as well. Should Tarasov and Peltier be considered for this fig (forced by ice-core inferred LIG climate)? Are there others? For this figure to work, it has to be a synthesis of multiple studies, not just the recent Otto-Bleisner et al effort. So, that is the news - all good from the view point of chap 6 exposure/impact, but of course, not so good in terms of the additional fast-turn-around work that is needed. The other tough issue is that - after several negotiating sessions with Susan (the last one with Jean Jouzel helping) - the best we could do is get our page limit increased from 30 to 35 pages. That doesn't sound too bad, except that we have to a) get all our existing material into less space than now (we're currently at an estimated 36 pages) AND b) get the new figures mentioned above in (two I think - solar, plus the LIG fig). We can do it, but everyone has to be thinking NOW about how to reduce our text. Again, many thanks for all the travel and hard work over the last two weeks. Also (in advance) for all the hard work coming up this month and the next two. Best, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4076. 2005-12-18 13:53:11 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 13:53:11 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: more on TS feedback to: Keith Briffa , Bette Otto-Bleisner , Eystein Jansen Dear Keith, Bette and Eystein: This email should be read after the one to the entire team - it provides post LA3/TS feedback on figures. Since Bette is going on a short vacation, she and I emailed about her new LIG fig before I left, so she's ready to go when she gets home. Keith (and Tim), on the other hand, have lots to consider, and I just wanted to reiterate to you (and Bette) that it's a priority for me and Eystein to help you brainstorm all these figures. Here are a few more comments I got on Keith/Tim Figs: For 6.8: 1) removing the oldest portion of the records from the plot is only ok IF: -we can justify on an obvious and objective basis - for example that sample depth hits goes down significantly at ca. 700AD or wherever we want to chop it. -We don't remove part of the series that will give rise to accusations of bias Thus, it might be better to leave as was in the FOD, just to be safe, or to try multiple versions. 2) had a long talk with Martin Manning about the idea of multiple plots, vs just the existing one (by the way, the TS team WANTS the instrumental part of the fig as we agreed to modify in Chap 6 sessions). I think the best idea is to keep the bottom panel as is, with modifications - keep the error bars as is - try a version with some sort of annually-resolved volc forcing placed at the top of the panel, with eruption (sufate) lines sticking down farther for big eruptions - try inserting some representation of average (median? or?) sample depth along the bottom (time) side of the panel. This will thus show, lots of sample depth back to ca. 1700, then less and less (in steps?). Martin suggests we go one step farther and color the sample depth part of the plot with different colors, based on our expert judgement of confidence. We could have two or three colors - one color for the interval overwhich we have "very likely" confidence (e.g., in the exec summary) and another for just "very." perhaps we want a third for some term reflecting "don't trust inferences regarding hemispheric temp that much over this interval" - this will obviously take some thinking/creativity, but this fig will go all the way to the TSM, so it's worth the effort. 3) linear axis for sure 4) if would still be good to try a density shaded version of this plot (instead of all the recon lines) for the TS and SPM. When in doubt, make an extra version. We can then share with our team and with Susan. Thanks for doing this! Also, FYI, Gabe indicated that her regional plots were not scaled separately. Surprising, but maybe the models are actually better than we thought. Best, Peck -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 3004. 2005-12-18 21:51:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 21:51:10 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Re: the to: Stefan Rahmstorf Hi Stefan and Chap 6 friends - normalizing to the 20th century was the way we agreed to do it at the TS/SPM meeting, so thanks for your independent endorsement. Even more thanks to Keith and Tim who need to work on all these figs. Best, Peck >Dear chapter 6 colleagues, > >I'd like to come back to a point Susan made in the plenary: the >millennium reconstruction curves should be normalised for the 20th >Century (or parts thereof, e.g. mid 20th Century). I strongly agree >with Susan here, for the reasons below: >- normal people (policy makers) think of climate change relative to >recent experience, not in some abstract absolute terms >- those data do in fact not give absolute temperatures, but those >relative to the recent instrumental period - they are in fact >normalised for this (a very valid point that Gabi made in the >plenary) >- the main conclusion we draw is that recent warmth is unprecedented >- if you want to see this, you must show the curves relative to the >recent times >- it makes no sense if the proxy curves diverge strongly in the 20th >Century, since this is only period where we really know what the >climate was like. > >These arguments are slightly different for the model results, hence >in the current draft, the proxy data are normalised for recent >climate, and the model results for something else. For the models >maybe we need to debate this - the main reason for doing it >differently for the models seems to be to show the correction for >the Von Storch result. When the AR4 comes out, this will be in the >published literature, so no need to make our whole graph look >different just to cater for one bad model run. I think the models >would be better shown normalised the same way as the proxy data; >this would also help avoid possible confusion. But I very strongly >feel that the simplified joint plot shown in the plenary, with the >envelopes of both models and proxies, definitely must be normalised >for the 20th Century. > >Cheers, Stefan -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 922. 2005-12-19 01:47:16 ______________________________________________________ cc: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 01:47:16 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] the sports-implement-that-must-not-be-mentioned to: Jonathan Overpeck Dear chapter 6 colleagues, I'd like to come back to a point Susan made in the plenary: the millennium reconstruction curves should be normalised for the 20th Century (or parts thereof, e.g. mid 20th Century). I strongly agree with Susan here, for the reasons below: - normal people (policy makers) think of climate change relative to recent experience, not in some abstract absolute terms - those data do in fact not give absolute temperatures, but those relative to the recent instrumental period - they are in fact normalised for this (a very valid point that Gabi made in the plenary) - the main conclusion we draw is that recent warmth is unprecedented - if you want to see this, you must show the curves relative to the recent times - it makes no sense if the proxy curves diverge strongly in the 20th Century, since this is only period where we really know what the climate was like. These arguments are slightly different for the model results, hence in the current draft, the proxy data are normalised for recent climate, and the model results for something else. For the models maybe we need to debate this - the main reason for doing it differently for the models seems to be to show the correction for the Von Storch result. When the AR4 comes out, this will be in the published literature, so no need to make our whole graph look different just to cater for one bad model run. I think the models would be better shown normalised the same way as the proxy data; this would also help avoid possible confusion. But I very strongly feel that the simplified joint plot shown in the plenary, with the envelopes of both models and proxies, definitely must be normalised for the 20th Century. Cheers, Stefan _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 4726. 2005-12-19 13:26:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 13:26:13 +0000 from: Gerard van der Schrier subject: Re: "Bjerknes hypothesis" reprints to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, It would be nice (though not essential) to have them here: I've already send the pdf and handed out print-outs of the article to quite a few people. About work: I've been busy with preparing some of the work we promised to do in the (new) RAPID proposal. However, most of the time has been spend on the fingerprinting work. I was not very happy with the relatively low skill of the fingerprinting method in determining MHT (Meridional Heat Transport) changes. So I first tried to redo the analysis with two response patterns, hoping to be able to estimate the *meridional structure* of the oceanic heat transport. That did not work. So I tried something less ambitous: estimating oceanic heat transport at 30N using two response patterns (instead of one). What I did is: 1) estimate the response pattern using regression techniques on MHT and sea surface height (SSH) 2) you can then orthogonalize the MHT time series and SSH maps by using ordinary Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization. 3) the second response pattern is determined using regression on the *reduced* MHT and *reduced* SSH. Unfortunately, that did not give the improvement I hoped it would. In fact: using the fingerprinting with two response pattern does not outperform the single-pattern estimates. The motivation to search for ways to 'tweak' the fingerprinting method into giving more reliable estimates are the recent results by Knight et al (2005, GRL doi:10.1029/2005GL024233) and Bryden et al (Nature) who estimated an increase and decrease of the overturning over the past decades respectively. It would be nice to contribute to this discussion with the TOPEX/Poseidon data. We can still contribute to this, but with the rather large error bounds..... We aimed the study to comment on the predictability of trends in MHT using SSH data. Initially, we wanted to construct a 'predictability matrix' by making estimates and 95%-confidence intervals for 10, 20 and 40 year trends. I was wondering, wouldn't it be more relevant for the paleo-perspective, to make a different predictability matrix. One that gives estimates of error bounds for trends in MHT based on single or multiple (point) reconstructions of SSH? This would be more closely associated with your original idea (only based on the marine climate rather than the terrestrial climate). The question we might try to answer is then: what is the skill of estimating trends in MHT based on reconstructions of SSH in key areas (like west-Iceland or Bermuda). I know that there are (or will be shortly) reconstructions of SSH from west-Iceland (I'm not sure of Bermuda though) which would give some extra relevance to this. Will you be at CRU this week, and next week? Cheers, Gerard > Hi Gerard, > > just to let you know that your reprints for this arrived from the > publishers of Climate Dynamics. I can send them on to you in The > Netherlands, unless you're happy to wait until you visit next year to > collect them in person? Please let me know. > > Best wishes and Happy Christmas! > > Cheers > > Tim > > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > -- ---------------------------------------------------------- Gerard van der Schrier Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) dept. KS/VO PO Box 201 3730 AE De Bilt The Netherlands schrier@knmi.nl ---------------------------------------------------------- 287. 2005-12-19 18:10:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 19 Dec 2005 18:10:53 -0000 from: "David Willans" subject: Training Dates to: Hello, Some dates for your new year diary... Futerra are launching a series of masterclasses on communicating sustainable development in early 2006. Communicating Climate Change on a Local and Regional Level 12.30 - 5.30pm Thursday 26 January 2006 Communicating Sustainable Development 12.30 - 5.30pm Thursday 23 February 2006 Communicating Climate Change 12.30 - 5.30pm Thursday 30 March 2006 Using international case studies and proven communication tools, each session is designed to build your confidence to plan and implement campaigns. "Enthusiastic and friendly trainers with a tremendous amount of knowledge" - Past participant For more information or to book then please see the attached flyer or visit our [1]website. The groups will be kept to only 15 people, so please sign up early to avoid disappointment. The Futerra team wish you a very merry Christmas! David David Willans Consultant Futerra Sustainability Communications Ltd [2]www.futerra.co.uk We've moved! Please note new contact details Direct Dial: +44 (0)20 7378 4003 Switchboard: +44 (0)20 7378 4000 84 Long Lane London SE1 4AU Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Futerra_Masterclass.pdf" 2807. 2005-12-20 08:49:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: Thomas Stocker date: Tue, 20 Dec 2005 08:49:32 +0100 from: Fortunat Joos subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch to: Jonathan Overpeck Hi Peck, We are running the BernCC and we could do simulations with different solar (and volcanic and GHGs) forcing over the past millennium. The BernCC as used in the AR4 includes the 2.5d Stocker Wright climate model and a marine carbon cycle (Marchal et al.) and LPJ for the terrestrial carbon cycle. The Bern CC is used in chapter 2 for the calculation of the carbon cycle impulse response function to determine GWPs. It is used in chapter 10 to do the set of SRES simulations and stabilization pathways scenarios (SP450 to SP1000). It is forseen that we will run the mitigation scenarios for WGIII with BernCC as well (The plan was to have those in WGI report already, but the scenarios are not in press within the WGI time line). The plan is to to run BernCC with different climate sensitivities following the probability density function for clim. sens given in chapter 10. This would yield a band of climate response both for the old and new solar forcing. I think using BernCC would provide a nice, consistent link of chap 6 with chap2, chap10 and WGIII modelling efforts. Finally, it is always good to have more than one model for consistency check. With best regards, Fortunat Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > Hi Stefan and team - great. David Rind is getting the solar forcing > series de jour (latest Lean). I expect Keith back on line soon, and then > he can help us figure out what type of simulation(s) we'd like, and what > other forcings we ought to use. My take is that it would be good to use > the same forcing used in the runs currently in Fig 6.10 (or at least the > "best" of those runs - subjective, I'm sure, and all with the old larger > amplitude Lean solar), but with the new reduced amplitude forcing. > > Fig 6.10 currently has the Bauer et al, 2003 run w/ CLIMBER - is it > CLIMBER2? Could/should we just re-run with the new solar in place of the > old solar (I don't have the paper here - was the solar used scaled to > Lean?). > > I'll cc this to the entire team, as there might be other ideas on how to > do this - I think we would want two simulations over the last 400 years. > One w/ the old Lean solar, one with the new. If we could use one of the > existing plotted runs as the "old Lean" run, then we only need one new > run. The idea is to show what difference TAR solar (old Lean) vs. AR4 > solar (new Lean) means. > > So, lets see what Keith and others say, and then line things up to get > the run done. If we can do it w/ CLIMBER, great. If we need to involve > another EMIC (assuming we're not going to get a AOGCM run done in less > than a month), then we need to line that up. Whatever model we use, it > should be one already in use by the AR4, so we don't have to worry about > the results being published - just the model. Make sense? > > Thanks again for the quick reply. Best, Peck > >> Dear Jonathan, >> >> concerning item 8: we can deliver a millennium simulation with any >> given forcing provided to us within days. (Actually takes just about 1 >> hour to run on the computer with CLIMBER-2.) >> >> Cheers, >> Stefan > > > -- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 2701. 2005-12-21 10:55:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: cddhr@giss.nasa.gov, Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa , joos date: Wed, 21 Dec 2005 10:55:06 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch to: Stefan Rahmstorf Hi Stefan - thanks. I'm not sure if we can more that fast, but if David can get the new solar forcing, then perhaps you could then run w/ the other forcings the same as the Bauer runs? I'll cc to Fortunat too, since he has offered to carry out the same runs w/ the Bern model - he might have the new/latest Lean solar series too (I think back to 1600 only). It would be good to have both CLIMBER (two versions) and BernCC runs with the same (or very similar) forcing, so perhaps you two can coordinate in European time. Keep Eystein and me posted - David too, in case Fortunat already has the new solar series. Thanks, Peck >Hi Jonathan, I got a positive response for doing those runs with >both models - but it would be good to get the forcing time series we >should use within a day, to start at least the slow model before the >christmas holidays. > >Stefan -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 2323. 2005-12-23 16:12:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 23 Dec 2005 16:12:23 +0000 from: Gerard van der Schrier subject: first version of ms. to: Tim Osborn , Keith Briffa Tim & Keith, Attached is a first version of a ms. about the optimal fingerprinting technique, and an application to relate changes in sea-surface height (SSH) to changes in oceanic meridonal heat transport (MHT). There are two major differences with an earlier version we discussed some time ago. The estimates of trends in MHT from trends in SSH is beefed up some more. The correlation between observed and estimated changes in MHT is now 0.71, which is not too bad. The 95% confidence levels decreased to 1.39, which is still pretty large (the trends in MHT are normalized, so the confidence limits are 1.39 sd.......). On the other hand, this would relate to a trend of 0.039 PW/yr. Bryden et al. recently found a change over the 1990s of 0.33-0.5 PW/yr. The other thing is that my estimate of a change in MHT over the 1990s, based on altimetry data, is now negligable. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Knight et al. (2005) recently estimated an *increase* in MHT, Bryden et al estimated a *decrease* and Carl Wunsch has a submitted paper in which he estimates the change in MHT to be negligable too. The ms. still feels a bit 'thin'. I've tried two approaches to extent this analysis. One was Tim's suggestion to look at trends of 5, 20 and 40 years too. You see that the skill of the method increases somewhat when the length of the trend is increased to 20 years, to decrease again for 40 years. The improvement in skill, and the associated decrease of the size of the confidence limits, is not very impressive. The other way was to use multiple patterns to estimate trends in MHT. For some reason, this did not yield better estimates of MHT compared to the univariate approach. This is somewhat counter-intuative though. I don't know why the skill does not improve. Cheers, Gerard -- ---------------------------------------------------------- Gerard van der Schrier Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) dept. KS/VO PO Box 201 3730 AE De Bilt The Netherlands schrier@knmi.nl ---------------------------------------------------------- Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\artv13.pdf"