1998 Emails ______________________________________________________ 783. 1998-01-02 19:51:49 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 02 Jan 1998 19:51:49 from: Alastair Grant subject: To be positive..... to: M.Hulme@uea.ac.uk I've been thinking about positive routes forward from the current situation in Trinity. Let me test an idea out on you: Clear biblical teaching is not always what we get on a Sunday, so why not think about alternative routes to providing it? The Tuesday morning group has been a very positive experience for a number of people, but is only available as an option if you are: a) female b) free on a Tuesday morning. What would be your response to the possibility of an evening group run along similar lines to the Tuesday morning meeting? i.e. 1) A focus on bible study as the primary aim 2) A commitment for group members to do some preparatory work (say 30 mins) 3) A request that people opt in for a term at a time, with a committment to do their very best to attend each meeting for the full term but a clear agreement that it is OK to come for a term then opt out. 4) A clear statement that the function of the group is not pastoral support, while recognising that honest study of scripture is often an excellent method of building relationships and can be a lot more beneficial than sitting and discussing one's problems. I am undecided on the relative merits of making it a "mens" group or making it open (there are a number of females in the church who are not free on Tuesday mornings, as you are aware). By holding it on either a Monday or a Thursday evening, there would be little conflict of timetable slots with existing homegroups, and this might be of help to couples where currently only one can go to a homegroup in a particular week. The aim of serious bible study would link very clearly with the stated strategic focus of discipleship, and presumably no-one could object to the idea of a group meeting together to discuss scripture. Your honest response to the suggestion would be gratefully received, both in terms of whether this would be of personal interest and whether you think there would be enough interest within the church to make such a group viable. There are however a few potential sensitivities around the idea, so please don't discuss the the suggestion with anyone for the moment. I will take a few other soundings, then float the idea with Rob Gladstone, who is the staff member responsible for small groups. Yours, Alastair Dr. Alastair Grant School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. Phone 01603 592537 Fax 01603 507719 Email: A.Grant@uea.ac.uk WWW: http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e130/ag.htm 1518. 1998-01-06 18:50:09 ______________________________________________________ cc: t.osborn@uea date: Tue Jan 6 18:50:09 1998 from: Tim Osborn subject: Re: Previous message sent to Tim ... to: David Stephenson At 11:35 AM 12/23/97 +0100, you wrote: >1. I would be very interested to see your analysis >of the HadCM2 ... it might give me some ideas of what >to look at in the 18 CMIP models. If you have any >fascinating points then let me know them and we can >look for those in the other models. Things have been progressing rather slowly due to the NERC proposal and other commitments (hence my very delayed reply), so I have yet to complete a draft write up of our findings. But I hope to do so very soon and will certainly send you a copy as soon as possible. I very brief summary is that: HADCM2 has an NAO, with a multivariate spatial structure very similar to that observed (in pressure, temperature, precipitation and synoptic variability), with the possible exception of enhanced correlation with what's going on over the North Pacific. Temporally it is also very similar if the recent observed trend from the 1960s to the 1990s is ignored. If the latter is included, however, then it is outside the range found in the 1400 yr of model data. It is also not explained by the climate change signals found in ensembles of CO2 and CO2&aerosol forced integrations of HADCM2, which show a decrease in the NAO index going into next century. I've yet to check individual ensemble members in detail, though, but have noticed that some appear to show a peak in the NAO index in the 1990s. >2. We have all the CMIP data now and will start analysing >it in spring 1998 ... the idea is to keep the analysis as >simple as possible. Plots of variance, filtered variance etc. >We have developed a simple box index (NAOSTI -- NAO ST index) >which seems to agree well with Hurrell's NAO index and with >PC1 of the Jones ST covariance. We will calculate that for all >models together with PC1 for each model. Good luck! Curt Covey indicated to me that most models submitting perturbed 80 yr integrations for CMIP2 would also submit SLP and precipitation control runs to go with them. That may help too! >3. It may be nice if you joined us on the CMIP comparison. Your >experience with the UKMO results would be invaluable. It would >be great to have you on board (and it doesnt involve any bureaucracy >since we dont get any money for doing NAOMIP !). Yes, I would be keen to be involved in this way. Even more so if you plan to extend the project to include SLP from CMIP2. Its probably best if you look through the draft paper that I will soon be sending you, and that may (or may not!) suggest aspects to which I could usefully contribute. >4. I am working more with real statisticians these days and would >be very interested in knowing about your NERC project and being >included if possible ?? I could help supply some statistical >methods to better extract the predictable part of the NAO signal. >Please consider me in the proposal if you haven't already sent it >off. Unfortunately there was no time for this - sorry. The two PIs (Keith Briffa and Phil Jones) managed to be out of the country for the last weeks of November immediately prior to the 1 Dec submission deadline. It meant that it was all a bit rushed to get the proposal finalised. >5. I work with some Spanish scientists who are very interested in >relating their rainfall to the NAO. Yesterday, they explained to me >that they have a lot of station data (>100years monthly means) over >the Iberian peninsula except over western Spain and Portugal. Do you >have rainfall data sets for these regions ?? Personally, I do not. Mike Hulme's gridded precipitation dataset ( see http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/datasets/global/ ) has monthly gridded values and he may be able to supply you with the underlying monthly stations values. For use only by the MEDALUS project ( see http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~jeanp/med1.htm ), Jean Palutikof and Clare Goodess have access to some daily and monthly station data. While they cannot give you access to these data, they may be able to point you to wherever they obtained them from. >P.S. As part of CMIP1, there would be no problem getting hold of >SLP data from some of the larger groups such as UKMO, GFLD, NCAR, MPI. >(GFLD=GFDL). See above re. CMIP2. >P.P.S. What do you know about NAO 2-5 year variability and the >possible quasi-bienniality of the NAO ?? Any ideas welcome ! Not alot. I do know that Ed Cook has done some Singular Spectral Analysis of the NAO index and identified quasi-bienniality. It also appears that Ed's reconstruction of the winter NAO index back to 1700 using tree-ring-width data captured variability on these timescales better than on some other timescales. Regards Tim 2154. 1998-01-15 15:54+0 ______________________________________________________ cc: sfbtett@meto.gov.uk, llivingston@meto.gov.uk date: Thu, 15 Jan 1998 15:54 +0000 (GMT) from: llivingston@meto.gov.uk subject: March Workshop - Travel Inn Reservations to: jean-claude.duplessy@cfr.cnrs-gif.fr, dempster@hustat.harvard.edu, hsv@dmi.min.dk, ses@bnl.gov, reiner.schnur@gkss.de, bsanter@pcmdi.llnl.gov, rodhe@misu.su.se, vr@gfdl.gov, north@csrp.tamu.edu, rlindzen@mit.edu, lean@demeter.nrl.navy.mil, gerbrand.komen@knmi.nl, djk@vortex.shm.monash.edu.au, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, hegerl@atmos.washington.edu, klaus.hasselmann@dkrz.de, cubasch@dkrz.de, christy@atmos.uah.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, tbarnett@ucsd.edu Euroclivar / DoE Workshop Attribution: Beyond Discernible? 9-12 March 1998, Hadley Centre Dear Participant I have been advised by the Travel Inn, Bracknell to confirm the accommodation for the Participants of the Workshop. Most participants will be arriving on 8 March, but have different times of departing, I would be grateful if you could all check the list below. Please contact me if it is incorrect. Thank you Participant Arrival Departure No of Nights Tim Barnett 8 March 13 March 5 nights Keith Briffa 8 March 10 March 2 nights John Christy 8 March 12 March 4 nights Ulrich Cubasch 8 March 12 March 4 nights Arthur Dempster 8 March 12 March 4 nights Klaus Hasselmann 9 March 12 March 3 nights Gabriele Hegerl 8 March 12 March 4 nights Phil Jones 8 March 11 March 3 nights David Karoly 8 March 13 March 5 nights Gerbrand Komen 8 March 12 March 4 nights Judith Lean 8 March 13 March 5 nights Gerald North 8 March 12 March 5 nights V Ramaswamy 8 March 12 March 4 nights Henning Rodhe 8 March 12 March 4 nights Reiner Schnur 8 March 12 March 4 nights Stephen Schwartz 8 March 13 March 5 nights Henrik Svensmark 8 March 12 March 4 nights I have not heard from Dr Duplessy, Dr Santer or Dr Lindzen, would you like me to reserve accommodation for you? INFORMATION 1. Accommodation Travel Inn Wokingham Road Bracknell RG12 1WA Tel: +44 1344 486 320 Fax: +44 1344 486 172 Travel Inn is 10 minutes walk from Train or Bus Station, shown on map which was sent with Invitation 2. Travel a) From Heathrow Airport by Beeline Bus From the Central Bus Station, Stand V Bus number 190 or 191 to Bracknell Bus Station, the journey takes 70 minutes. (Cost is 3 pounds 15 pence) b) From Heathrow by car. Take the M4 motorway, heading West towards Reading. Leave at Junction 10 and follow A329(M) to Bracknell. Turn left at sign to Arlington Square. Travel Inn is situated at the front of the Business Park on Wokingham Road, next to the Weather Vane Brewers Fayre. (NOTE. If participants are to be travelling by car, then please let me know, as the Hadley car park is small and car spaces must be reserved.) 3. To get to the Hadley Centre on foot from the Travel Inn. Make your way to the (large) 3M building. With the 3M building on your left,walk up through the town till you get to the Police Station. With the Police station on your right you will see a subway in front of you (and the Met Office in the distance). There are 4 subways (or underpasses). At the 4th, choose the one on the right, walk through, turn left and then right which takes you on to London Road. The Hadley Centre is the 4th Building on the left down London Road. (This is a 15-17 minute walk) With best wishes Linda Livingston Administrative Officer llivingston@meto.gov.uk 1792. 1998-01-22 17:27:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 22 Jan 98 17:27:46 EST from: ddokken@usgcrp.gov (Dave Dokken) subject: TAR Nomination Letter to: tar@usgcrp.gov, tp_impacts@usgcrp.gov, tp_policy@usgcrp.gov, tpfyi_impacts@usgcrp.gov, tpfyi_policy@usgcrp.gov, tprev_impacts@usgcrp.gov, tprev_policy@usgcrp.gov No. 27096/M/IPCC/TAR Geneva, 5 December 1997 Sir/Madam, I have the honour of writing to you to invite nomination(s) from your Government of experts for consideration as Lead Author(s), Contributing Author(s) or Review Editor(s) for the different chapters of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As you may know, the IPCC has been jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess available information on the science, the environmental and the socio-economic impacts, options for adaptation and mitigation and the economics of climate change and to provide, on request, scientific/technical/socio-economic information to the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) and its bodies. As you may further know, the IPCC decided at its Thirteenth Session (Maldives, 22 & 25-28 September 1997) that the TAR would consist of the Reports of its three Working Groups, with their respective Summaries for Policymakers and Technical Summaries, and an IPCC Synthesis Report (see the attached copy, in Annex 1, of the Decision Paper on the IPCC Third Assessment Report). The Working Group Reports are expected to be completed late in the year 2000 and the Synthesis Report by mid-2001. Being fully intergovernmental, it has been the practice in IPCC for the Governments in the developed world to support their respective Lead Authors/Contributing Authors/Review Editors for participation in the preparation of the chapters/sections of the TAR. Such support extends to the travel and subsistence of Lead Authors/Review Editors to attend meetings of Lead Authors and other relevant meetings such as the sessions of the IPCC Working Groups and of the IPCC. The travel and subsistence of the Lead Authors/Review Editors from the developing countries and countries with economies in transition to attend the meetings of Lead Authors and other relevant meetings will be borne out of the IPCC Trust Fund by the IPCC Secretariat. The Contributing Authors are normally not required to attend these meetings. An IPCC description of the roles and responsibilities of its Lead Authors/Contributing Authors is attached, in Annex 2, for your information. The Lead Authors are expected to draft the chapters, revise them at the end of the three IPCC- mandated reviews, namely, the expert review, government technical/expert review and the final government review for further action. They will also contribute to drafting, revising and finalizing the Summaries for Policymakers (SPMs). The roles and responsibilities of Review Editors are to be found in Decision 7 in the attached Decision Paper (Annex 1). The presence of Review Editors and selected Lead Authors may be requested at the sessions of the Working Groups and of the IPCC to assist in finalizing the SPM and/or the Report. To Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Members of the UN and of WMO The time commitment envisaged for the Lead Authors is of the order of a month or two per year for 1998, 1999 and 2000 and that for Review Editors is less the first year; this time includes attendance in the meetings. It is expected that the Lead Authors/Review Editors each would need to attend 3 meetings in 1998, one as early as in May. Charged with assessing and presenting factual matter, the tasks of the IPCC require that the nominee(s) have appropriate expertise. In this connection, I wish to inform you that the IPCC re-organized its Working Groups II and III at the Thirteenth Session so that: (i) Working Group I will continue to assess the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change; (ii) Working Group II will assess the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of vulnerability (i.e., sensitivity and adaptability) to climate change of, and the negative and positive impacts for, ecological systems, socio-economic sectors and human health, with an emphasis on regional sectoral and cross-sectoral issues; (iii) Working Group III will assess the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change, and through a multidisciplinary task group, will assess the methodological aspects of cross-cutting issues (e.g., equity, discount rates and decision-making frameworks). The Synthesis Report will provide a policy-relevant synthesis and integration of the three Working Group Reports. A provisional listing of the contents of the Reports of the three Working Groups is enclosed, as Annex 3, for your use in guiding the choice your nominee(s). As many experts as you wish may be nominated whether it be for the same chapter or for different chapters. Every nomination must be accompanied by a curriculum vitae (c.v.) which includes a list of publications (or describes equivalent experience) in the field of the candidate's expertise. The IPCC will be unable to consider any candidacy which is unaccompanied by a c.v. For your information, nominations are being requested from intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations as well. Irrespective of such request, your Government may wish to include experts from the academia, industry, environmental organizations and other non-governmental bodies in your nomination(s). All nominations will be forwarded to the respective Bureaux of the Working Groups, who are charged with selecting the Lead Authors/Contributing Authors/Review Editors. The IPCC procedures call for the inclusion of at least one Lead Author from the developing world for every chapter. Authors will be listed chapter-wise in the TAR. All nominations should reach me no later than 27 February 1998 at the IPCC Secretariat, c/o World Meteorological Organization, 41, Avenue Giuseppe Motta, P.O. Box 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland (Tel: +41 22 7308208/284; Fax: +41 22 7331270; Telex: 414190 OMM CH). Your Government is invited to make use of the attached form (Annex 4) in making the nomination(s). The form can be duplicated as many times as you wish. Copies of this letter are being sent to the IPCC Focal/Contact Point(s), if any, the Permanent Representative with WMO and the UNEP Focal Point(s) of your country for information. Accept, Sir/Madam, the assurances of my highest consideration. N. Sundararaman Secretary of the IPCC ANNEX 1 The IPCC Third Assessment Report Decision Paper 1. Scope of the Third Assessment Report (i) The IPCC agrees that the Third Assessment Report will be comprehensive and cover the complete range of scientific, technical, economic and social issues associated with the climate system and climate change deemed important by the expert or policy- making communities; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the Third Assessment Report will summarize the state of knowledge covered in previous IPCC reports, but will primarily assess information generated since the Second Assessment Report, recognizing that climate change is a global issue, but emphasizing the assessment of the regional aspects of climate change. 2. Structure of the Third Assessment Report (i) The IPCC agrees that the Third Assessment Report will consist of reports of the three IPCC Working Groups (each with a brief Summary for Policymakers, a technical summary, and a series of chapters, each with an executive summary) and a Synthesis Report. (ii) The IPCC agrees that: Working Group I will assess the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change; Working Group II will assess the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of the vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptability) to climate change of, and the negative and positive consequences (impacts) for, ecological systems, socio-economic sectors and human health, with an emphasis on regional sectoral and cross- sectoral issues; Working Group III will assess the scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change, and through a task group (multidisciplinary team), will assess the methodological aspects of cross-cutting issues (e.g., equity, discount rates and decision making frameworks); The Synthesis Report will provide a policy-relevant synthesis and integration of the three Working Group Reports (see issue number 4). 3. Scope of the Working Groups and Nomination of Lead Authors (i) The IPCC agrees that the proposed scope of each of the three Working Groups (outlined in the Background section) is adequate for the IPCC Secretary to promptly request governments and IPCC focal points, as well as organizations and experts to propose lead authors for the Third Assessment Report; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the Working Group Bureaus will meet early in 1998 to provisionally identify lead authors for the Third Assessment report primarily based on written proposals received from governments, organizations and experts (curriculum vitaes should accompany nominations to assist the Bureaus select the most appropriate experts); (iii) The IPCC agrees that the chapter structures of each Working Group will be developed at a scoping meeting that will be attended by the Working Group Bureaus and the provisionally identified lead authors, and later approved by the IPCC Working Groups in mid-1998. 4. Scope and Structure of the Synthesis Report (i) The IPCC agrees that the Third Assessment Report should include a Synthesis Report that will be written in a non-technical style suitable for policymakers and will address a broad range of key policy-relevant questions; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the IPCC Chairman and the Working Group Co-chairs will develop a list of key policy-relevant scientific questions in consultation with the President of the Conference of the Parties (COP) and the chairs of the subsidiary, and other, bodies of the COP, using the mechanism of the IPCC/FCC Joint Working Group. The list will be circulated to governments for comment and the IPCC will approve the list at its Fourteenth Session. This list can be revised at a later date under the responsibility of the IPCC Chair, and with the approval of the IPCC; (iii) The IPCC agrees that the Working Groups will be asked to include assessment information relevant to those key policy-relevant scientific questions in their contributions to the TAR and to bring forward the key points in their summaries for policy-makers; (iv) The IPCC agrees that the Synthesis Report should synthesize/integrate material contained within the assessment reports of the three Working Groups; (v) The IPCC agrees that the Synthesis Report should consist of a short SPM and a longer report; (vi) The IPCC agrees that the SPM of the Synthesis Report will undergo a simultaneous expert/government review, and then be approved line by line by the IPCC; (vii) The IPCC agrees that the IPCC Chair will chair a geographically balanced the writing team for the Synthesis Report, with the writing team composition being agreed by the IPCC Bureau. 5. Responsibility for ongoing special reports (i) The IPCC agrees that the Special Report entitled RAviation and the Global AtmosphereS will continue to be developed under the Co-chairs and TSUs of the past (1992-1997) Working Groups I and II, but in close collaboration with the new co-chairs and TSUs of Working Groups I and III, and will be submitted for approval/acceptance to a joint session of the new Working Groups I and III; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the Special Report entitled RMethodological and Technological Aspects of Technology Transfer: Opportunities for Technology CooperationS will continue to be developed under the Co-chairs and TSU of the past (1992-1997) Working Group II, but in close collaboration with the new Working Group III Co-chairs and TSU, and will be submitted for approval/acceptance to a session of the new Working Group III; (iii) The IPCC agrees that the Special Report entitled REmissions ScenariosS will be transferred for further development to the new Working Group III after the Thirteenth session of the IPCC ( Maldives, 22 and 25-28 September, 1997) and will be submitted for approval/acceptance to a session of the new Working Group III. 6. Peer-review process for the Working Group Reports of the Third Assessment Report (i) The IPCC agrees that Working Group reports (chapters, chapter executive summaries, and technical summaries) should undergo sequential open expert and expert/government peer reviews and then be accepted by the Working Groups; (ii) The Summaries for Policymakers will undergo simultaneous expert/government reviews and then be approved line-by-line by the Working Groups. 7. The Editorial Review Process (i) The IPCC agrees that review editor(s) should be selected for the chapters (including their executive summaries) and technical summary of each Working Group report; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the review editors should be selected from both members of the Working Group Bureaus and independent experts. Review editors should not be involved in the preparation or review of material for which they are an review editor; (iii) The IPCC agrees that there should be one or two review editors per chapter and per technical summary; (iv) The IPCC agrees that the Working Group Bureaus are responsible for the selection of the review editors, ensuring appropriate representation from developed countries, developing countries and countries with economies in transition; (v) The IPCC agrees that the primary responsibilities of the review editors include: (i) assisting the Working Group Bureaus in identifying reviewers for the RexpertS review process; (ii) ensuring that all substantive expert and government review comments are afforded appropriate consideration; (iii) advising lead authors on how to handle contentious/controversial issues; and (iv) ensuring genuine scientific controversies are reflected adequately in the text. (vi) The IPCC agrees that the review editors communicate their findings to the Working Group sessions. (vii) The IPCC agrees that responsibility for the final text is that of the lead authors. Where significant differences of opinion remain unresolved, the review editors should ensure that such differences are described in an Annex to the report. 8. Timing of the Third Assessment Report (i) The IPCC agrees that the three Working Group Reports of the Third Assessment Report should be approved/accepted by late 2000/ early 2001; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the Synthesis Report should be completed during the second quarter of the year 2001. 9. Promoting Enhanced participation of experts from Developing Countries and Countries with Economies in Transition (i) The IPCC agrees that the IPCC Vice-chairs and Working Group Bureau members from developing countries and countries with economies in transition work with IPCC focal points within their regions to identify appropriate review editors, lead authors, contributing authors and peer-reviewers: in addition, all members of the Bureaus are encouraged to assist in this process; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the Working Group Bureaus should ensure balanced representation of lead authors (experts from developed and developing countries, and countries with economies in transition); (iii) The IPCC agrees that the Working Group Bureaus should be encouraged to increase the number of expert meetings and workshops in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, thus contributing to enhancing the networks of scientists and other experts in these regions. 10. Promoting the participation of experts from Business/Industry/Finance, Development and Environmental Organizations (i) The IPCC agrees that non-government experts, including those from business, industry, finance and development and environmental organizations, with relevant expertise, should be involved in the preparation and review of the Third Assessment Report; (ii) The IPCC agrees that itUs Bureau and the TSUs, assist the IPCC Secretary, in identifying those experts; (iii) The IPCC agrees that it will be critical to have balance, including geographic balance, within and between experts from various non-governmental organizations. These experts will act in their personnel capacity, bring to bear their scientific, technological and economic expertise. 11. Utilization of the non-English Language Literature (i) The IPCC agrees that the Working Group Bureaus, in conjunction with the chapter lead authors, should make every effort to assess the non-English language literature. 12. Publication Procedures (i) The IPCC agrees that itUs Secretary, in conjunction with the Working Group TSUs, should examine the potential of placing IPCC publications on Internet while using a commercial publisher. 13. Translation Procedures (i) The IPCC agrees that the IPCC Secretary should invite all governments (developed, developing and countries with economies in transition) to contribute to the work of the IPCC by translating accepted Working Group reports into non-English languages, in particular the official UN languages. 14. Structure of the IPCC Bureau (i) The IPCC agrees that the Bureau should consist of thirty members: the IPCC Chairman, the five IPCC Vice-chairmen, and the Bureaus of the three Working Groups; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the Bureau should be balanced, i.e., between developed countries, countries with economies in transition and developing countries; and between regions; (iii) The IPCC agrees that there will be five IPCC Vice- chairs: two developed countries, one being a country with an economy in transition; and three from developing countries (one each from WMO regions 1, 2 or 5, 3 or 4); (vi) The IPCC agrees that each Working Group has two Co-chairs (one from a developed country and one from a developing country); (v) The IPCC agrees that there is one developing country Working Group Co-chair from each of Africa, Asia and Latin America/Caribbean; (vi) The IPCC agrees that each Working Group Bureau will consist of two Co-chairs and six Vice-chairs (one from each of the WMO regions not covered by the co-chairs, wherever possible); (vii) The IPCC agrees that each WMO region may nominate their candidates for the IPCC Vice-chairs and its representatives on each Working Group Bureau (co-chairs and vice-chairs), taking into account the relevant expertise/qualifications needed to perform the roles and responsibilities assigned to the IPCC Vice-chairs and Working Group Bureaus. 15. Funding for technical support units (i) The IPCC agrees that the traditional approach be largely continued, whereby the government of the developed country Co-chair assumes the primary responsibility for funding the TSU (office space, equipment, postage, communications, publications, travel, expert meeting facilities, and 1-2 professional and 3-4 support staff); (ii) The IPCC agrees that the IPCC trust fund should fund, to the extent needed and financially feasible, the agreed costs to assist the developing country Co- chairs perform their duties; (iii) The IPCC agrees that the secondments and/or financial assistance to the TSUs from the developed country Vice-chairs is highly desirable. 16. Financial task team (i) The IPCC agrees to establish a small financial task team to review income and expenditures, to assist in preparing the annual budget and to develop other recommendations on matters related to finance and administration for consideration by the IPCC; (ii) The IPCC agrees that the team should be co-chaired by two government representatives from countries represented on the IPCC Bureau: one from a developed country, and one from either a developing country or country with an economy in transition. The co-chairs, and other members of the team (about four government representatives from countries represented on the Bureau), will be selected by the Bureau. ANNEX 2 Tasks and Responsibilities for Lead Authors, Contributors, and Expert Reviewers of IPCC Report and IPCC Government Contacts 1. LEAD AUTHORS (LAs) Function: To produce designated sections addressing items of the work programme on the basis of the best scientific and technical information available. Comment: Lead authors will typically work as small groups which have responsibility for ensuring that the various components of their sections are brought together on time, are of uniformly high quality and conform to any overall standards of style set for the document as a whole. The task of lead authors is a demanding one and in recognition of this the names of LAs should appear prominently in the final report. During the final stages of report preparation, when the workload is often particularly heavy and when lead authors are heavily dependent upon each other to read and edit material, and to agree to changes promptly, it is essential that the work should be accorded the highest priority. The essence of the lead authors' task is synthesis of material drawn from the peer reviewed literature, generated at workshops or submitted by contributors. Lead authors may not necessarily write original text themselves, but they must have the proven technical ability to develop text that is scientifically sound and that faithfully represents, to the extent that this is possible, contributions by a wide variety of experts. The ability to work to deadlines is also a necessary practical requirement. Principles Governing IPCC Work require LAs to record views which cannot be reconciled with a consensus view but which are nonetheless scientifically or technically valid. Lead authors may convene meetings with contributors, as appropriate, in their preparations of their sections and to suggest any workshops in their relevant areas to the Subgroup or Working Group co-chairs. 2. CONTRIBUTORS Function: To prepare technical information in the form of text, graphs or data for assimilation by the lead authors into the draft section. Comment: Input from a wide range of contributors is a key element in the success of IPCC assessments, and the names of all contributors should be acknowledged in the reports. Contributions are sometimes solicited by Lead Authors but unprompted contributions are positively encouraged. Contributed material may be edited, merged and if necessary, amended, in the course of developing the overall draft text. 3. EXPERT REVIEWERS Function: To comment on the accuracy and completeness of the scientific/technical content and the overall scientific/technical balance of the drafts. Comment: Expert reviewers will comment on the text according to their own knowledge and experience. They may be nominated by Governments, national and international organizations, Working Group Bureaus, Lead Authors and contributors. 4. GOVERNMENT REVIEW Function: To comment on the accuracy and completeness of the scientific/technical content and the overall scientific/technical balance of the drafts. Comment: Government review will typically be carried out within and between a number of Departments and Ministries. Countries may convene their own seminars and workshops to review draft reports and advise on comments. For administrative convenience, countries should nominate a single IPCC Government Contact. ANNEX 3 Provisional Listing of the Contents of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) This list is based on the outline which was provided in the background to Decision 3 in the IPCC Decision Paper on TAR. The background is not included in Annex 1. Please note that the order of the subject matter could be different from what is given. It is also possible that other subject areas could be included in the TAR at the suggestion of, for example, the user community (particularly the bodies of the UNFCCC), Lead Authors, Bureaux of the Working Groups/IPCC and IPCC. Working Group I - A Scientific Assessment of the Climate System Subject area 1: The Climate System: an overview (description of the climate system); Subject area 2: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change (natural - including solar output and volcanic emissions, and anthropogenic - including greenhouse gases and aerosols; climate forcing factors; the carbon cycle; atmospheric chemistry) Subject area 3: Observed Climate Variability and Change (observed changes in atmospheric composition, climate variables, cryosphere; climate variability; model-guided interpretation of the observations) Subject area 4a: Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks (physical processes involving, inter alia, oceans (including thermohaline circulation), clouds, cryosphere and water vapour; feedbacks and rapid non-linear effects) Subject area 4b: Biological Climate Processes and Feedbacks (terrestrial and aquatic ecological and biogeochemical processes including feedbacks and rapid non-linear effects) Subject area 5: Climate Models: Evaluation (the reliability and utility of the full hierarchy of climate models) Subject area 6: Global Climate Models: Projections of Future Climate (model simulations of past and current global climate; climate sensitivity; model simulations of future global changes in atmospheric composition, radiative forcing, climate, and cryosphere, using a wide range of possible long- term emission scenarios and stabilization levels of greenhouse gases; response of major climate regimes such as, for example, El Nino, to greenhouse forcing; predictability and considerations from chaos theory) Subject area 7: Regional Information: Models and Projections (approaches for developing regional climate information, downscaling etc.; reliability and utility of regional models; model simulations of past, current and future regional climate) Subject area 8: Changes in Sea Level (observed changes in sea level; model simulations of future changes in sea level) Subject area 9: Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes Subject area 10: Advancing our Understanding (likely areas of advances in our understanding of climate change; priorities for research) Working Group II - A Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options % Potential impacts of climate change and associated sea- level rise on ecosystems, economic sectors and activities (including trade), infrastructure, human health, and societies. % Focus on regional and global scales of analysis; examination of potential economic, environmental, and social costs and benefits of changes in climate (including trade and equity implications) and the degree to which climate change may affect future capabilities to meet human needs (e.g., adequate food, clean water, a healthy environment, safe shelter). % Sensitivity of each system or sector (the degree to which a system responds to changes in climate), adaptation options (spontaneous or planned adjustments to climate changes) and vulnerability (the extent to which climate change may cause damage). % Results quantified to the extent possible, and based on a range of potential rates and magnitudes of change. % Analysis of adaptation options in terms of constraints and opportunities affecting implementation. % Wide range of disciplines (ecology, biology, hydrology, agronomy, geology, economics, and other natural and social sciences) covered. The subject areas, each studied in terms of the above, include: Subject area 1: Forests and forestry Subject area 2: Agriculture and food security Subject area 3: Rangelands Subject area 4: Deserts Subject area 5: Soils and land degradation Subject area 6: Mountain regions Subject area 7: Cryosphere Subject area 8: Hydrology and water resources management Subject area 9: Freshwater, wetland, coastal, and marine ecosystems (including fisheries) Subject area 10: Infrastructure in coastal zones and on small islands Subject area 11: Human settlement patterns and conditions Subject area 12: Energy, industry, and transportation Subject area 13: Financial services (including insurance) Subject area 14: Human health Subject area 15: Integrated assessment Working Group III - A Scientific, Technical, Environmental, Economic and Social Assessment of Options to Mitigate Climate Change % Technologies, practices, policies and policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sources and to enhance removals of greenhouse gases by sinks, covering all sectors and all greenhouse gases. Subject area 1: Technical, economic and market potential of technologies and practices to reduce greenhouse gases from energy supply and demand, industrial and transportation sources, waste disposal, agriculture and forestry, and other sources Subject area 2: Technical, economic and market potential of technologies and practices to enhance the removal of greenhouse gases, including both biological sinks (forests, soils, oceans) as well as technologies to capture and store carbon and technologies that can directly influence the earthUs radiation balance (geo-engineering) Subject area 3: Technical, financial, institutional and political barriers to effective use, diffusion and transfer of these technologies and practices Subject area 4: Policies and policy instruments to harness the potential of these technologies and practices and to overcome barriers, including incentives for the penetration of new technologies, national and regional information centres, public and private sector R&D programmes as well as fiscal instruments such as carbon, energy and pollution taxes, subsidy elimination, internalization of externalities, negotiated agreements, joint implementation, emissions trading and regulation Subject area 5: Global assessment of the mitigation potential of these technologies, practices and policies for all sectors and sources and sinks, including their social, economic and environmental dimensions Subject area 6: Regional assessment of the mitigation potential of these technologies, practices and policies for all sectors and for sources and sinks, including their local and regional social, economic and environmental dimensions Subject area 7: Assessment of emission scenarios to achieve stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and of the relevant policy mix underlying these scenarios Subject area 8: Costs and benefits of achieving different emission profiles and different stabilization levels on a global basis and costs and benefits of achieving different emission limitation and reduction profiles at a regional level, including cross-sectoral assessment of the use of discount rates Subject area 9: Assessment of the social, economic and environmental impacts of mitigation actions on all countries, including impact on trade relations Subject area 10: Assessment of decision-making frameworks involving both adaptation and mitigation approaches, equity and sustainable development considerations (such as common and differentiated responsibility, equitable burden sharing, intergenerational equity), integrated environmental assessment tools and other relevant aspects, including synergy with other global sustainable development and environmental protection regimes. ANNEX 4 Nomination Form for Lead Author(s)/Contributing Authors/Review Editors for the TAR Please send the completed form with the nomineeUs CV attached no later than 27 February 1998 to: IPCC Secretariat, c/o WMO 41, Giuseppe Motta C.P. N! 2300 1211 Geneva SWITZERLAND TEL: +441 2 7308 284/208 FAX: +41 22 7331 270 E-MAIL: IPCC_Sec@gateway.wmo. ch Please print NOMINEEUS FULL NAME (including title such as Prof., Dr, Mr, Ms ) NOMINEEUS FULL POSTAL ADDRESS TEL: FAX: EMAIL: Please indicate which Working Group Subject Area(s) the nominee would be qualified to contribute to and in which role(s) [LA = Lead Author; CA =Contributing Author; RE = Review Editor]. OTHER SUBJECT AREA: WORKING GROUP: NomineeUs CV attached ___ NOMINATED BY (Name, address, country and/or organisation): Signature: Date: 4455. 1998-01-22 19:49:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: Mike Hulme date: Thu, 22 Jan 1998 19:49:21 -0700 (MST) from: Tom Wigley subject: COSMIC to: Philip Newton Dear Philip, Michael Schlesinger mentioned to me that you had expressed an interest in his software package "COSMIC". You may not realize that my colleagues and I in CRU (notably Mike Hulme, Mike Salmon, Sarah Raper and Ogla Brown) developed similar user-friendly software some years ago. It comes in two integrated components, MAGICC and SCENGEN. MAGICC does the global-mean calculations that are used to drive the regional climate-change pattern algorithms in SCENGEN. It is widely used; and has been integrated into a more complex Integrated Assessment package by Jae Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher and others at Battelle. The principle used by our software is the same as used by Schlesinger in COSMIC. The method was invented by Ben Santer and me almost 10 years ago. MAGICC employs the same models that I used in doing the latest IPCC global-mean temperature and sea level projections. Michael uses similar models, but they are not "the" IPCC models. SCENGEN employs a large database of GCM results, overlapping the database that Michael uses. SCENGEN also includes regionally-specific SO2 emissions scenarios, using a compositing method that I invented some years ago. Michael uses the same method; but I don't think he has implemented this part of his code yet. SCENGEN can give global maps of climate change, or higher-resolution maps for a number of selected regions. SCENGEN uses a better observed climate database than COSMIC, drawing on 20 years of work in this area in CRU. I believe SCENGEN also gives output for a wider range of climate variables than COSMIC. In my view, COSMIC simply re-invents the wheel that we developed some time ago. Michael tends to be rather cavalier in giving credit to others. He has known about MAGICC/SCENGEN for some time; but I doubt that he has ever bothered to look at the software. If you want to know more, contact Mike Hulme (details below). The latest version of MAGICC/SCENGEN was developed largely under his direction. It is available on a CD-ROM to run under Windows. It is easy, educational and fun to use. Cheers, Tom cc: Mike Hulme Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom Tel: 1603-593162 Fax: 1603-507784 Email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk ********************************************************** *Tom M.L. Wigley * *Senior Scientist * *National Center for Atmospheric Research * *P.O. Box 3000 * *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * *USA * *Phone: 303-497-2690 * *Fax: 303-497-2699 * *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * ********************************************************** 2529. 1998-01-26 11:47:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 26 Jan 1998 11:47:46 -0500 (EST) from: g025 subject: Theological Activities to: "Acton, Professor Edward" , "Aidley, Dr. David" , "Akehurst, James" , "Andrews, Professor David" , "Anstey, Dr. Paddy" , "Aslin, Dr. Chris" , "Baker, Dr. David" , "Barber, The Revd. Garth" , "Belshaw, Deryk" , "Breathnach, Mairin" , "Casey, Dr. Jim" , "Chalk, Keith" , "Clark, Sophie" , "Cutter, Richard" , "Cutting, Heather" , "Dowsing, Dr. Roy" , "Dyer, Alison" , "Easton, John (& Jean)" , "Edwards, Peter" , "Elliott, Dr. Ralph" , "Elliott, Professor John" , "Evans, Dr. Tom" , "Evans, Rob" , "Everest, Dr. Graham" , "Gilbert, Judith" , "Glauert, Dr. John" , "Gorringe, Peter" , "Grant, Dr. Alistair" , "Gray, John" , "Green, Debbie" , "Hall, Gillian" , "Havers, Janet" , "Haylock, Derek" , "Houssart, Marion" , "Howard, Melanie" , "Howard, Lynne" , "Hulme, Dr. MIke" , "Jones, Dr. Alan" , "Jones, Professor Stuart" , "Kenning, Dr. Marie-M" , "King, Sue" , "Lewis, Dr. Brian" , "Logan, Dr. Oliver" , "Malcolm, Chris" , "Marcantonio, Julia Mary" , "Marsh, Lyn" , "Page, Sue" , "Pedley, Kate" , "Penfold, David" , "Perowne, Naomi" , "Peterson, Steve" , "Pounds, Gabrina" , "Rashid, Steve" , "Rayward Smith, Professor Vic" , "Rose, Martin" , "Russell, Peter" , "Sanderson, Anne (& Michael)" , "Seeley, Sue" , "Summers, Jan" , "Tovey, Dr. K" , "Vaughan, Dr. Helen" , "Vine, Professor Fred" , "Watson, Bridget" , "Williamson, Anne" , "Winkler, Birgit" , "Woodhouse, Lisa" Dear Member of the Christian Staff Group, Please excuse another circular, it is the quickest method of contacting all who may be interested with notices of activities. (If this is the second copy I apologise but I've had problems with the e-mail!) 1. The 'UEA Theological Forum' begins today, Monday the 26th January, with a series of lunch time meetings. This term there is a weekly series of eight sessions entitled 'Reading the Bible with New Eyes' given by Roy Robinson the URC Chaplain. In the Summer Term there will be a further four sessions in the area of Science and Faith led by myself and Peter Richmond. These will be at 1.05 - 1.55 pm in the Meeting Room of the Chaplaincy. We are also advertising the 'Christians in Development' seminars which meet in DEV 1.81, mainly on Wednesdays at 17.45. If you are interested in those please contact Professor Deryk Belshaw on extension 2338. Programs of the entire series are available from me in the Chaplaincy. 2. If I may remind you that there is a lunchtime RC Mass on Wednesdays and an Anglican Eucharist on Thursdays, both welcome all staff and students, at 1.05pm in the Chaplaincy Quiet Room. 3. Watch this space for the first of the new Christian Staff Group activities once the Theological Forum is up and running. If I have not yet met you please e-mail me and we perhaps can have lunch together sometime! God Bless, Yours Garth Barber, UEA Anglican Chaplain 826. 1998-02-03 12:00:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 03 Feb 1998 12:00:35 +0000 from: Mike Hulme subject: DETR meeting minutes and date to: Peter@westwind.demon.co.uk,j.kings@bham.ac.uk,ckfolland@meto.govt.uk, deparker@meto.govt.uk,Tracy Basnett , p.jones@uea.ac.uk,j.jones@uea.ac.uk,t.osborn@uea.ac.uk,m.new@uea.ac.uk Dear All, A few slight amendments to the minutes were made so here is the final version. In response to comments on July dates, I have gone for 16th July as the meeting date in Bracknell (with 2nd July as a back-up in case of problems with the 16th). Perhaps you could put these dates in your diaries now. Thanks, Mike ___________________________________________________________ Joint Hadley Centre/Westwind Services/Climatic Research Unit Progress and Planning Meeting University of East Anglia Thursday 22 January 1998, 11.45am to 4.30pm Attending: Chris Folland, David Parker, Tracy Basnett (Hadley Centre) Peter Wright, John Kings (Westwind Services) Mike Hulme, Phil Jones, Tim Osborn, Julie Jones, Declan Conway and Mark New (part-time) (CRU) Minutes (corrected 3/2/98) 1. Review of Actions from July meeting a. Jenkinson pressure indices: these have been calculated from 1881 and are updated each month by Tracy Basnett, being available through ftp. This Jenkinson index should be widely publicised as a replacement to Lamb. b. Regional precip. series: owing to staffing changes at the Hadley Centre there will be several months delay before the new monthly EWP can be calculated in near real-time. In the interim, the Met. Office EWR could be used by CRU to obtain a rough estimate of EWP. Updating the 1931-83 regional daily precip. series requires appropriate data from the BADC. c. Daily precipitation intensities: a compilation of hourly data from the IH exists, some of which may be useful for investigations into changes in convective/frontal precip. Additional sources of relevant hourly data maybe found through Eddie Spackman at the Met. Office or the hourly/3-hourly SYNOP reports at BADC. Some prior analysis of changing daily UK precip. intensities may be worthwhile using the data CRU already have. d. A complete global Tmean gridded 1961-90 climatology: this exercise will require the blending of CRU's land climatology, with marine air temperatures calculated by adding (night) air-sea temperature differences to GISST2.2 climatology, and the COADS Arctic Ocean climatology. CRU first need to complete their analysis by generating a Tmean (Tmin and Tmax) surface for Antarctica and surrounding sea ice regions. The objective is to calculate a more accurate estimate of 'true' global surface mean temperature. 2. Hadley Centre update. Chris Folland summarised the recently completed ensemble experiments using HADAM2b for 1871-1997. Runs using GISST3, but no natural or anthropogenic forcing, will be used by Westwind in their trend analysis. Over the next few months, sets of ensemble experiments will be run using HADAM3 with a) GISST3 forcing and b) GISST3 forcing combined with an array of additional natural and anthropogenic forcings (volcanic, solar, GHG, aerosol, etc.). These HADAM3 results will also be used by Westwind before the completion of their current work in March 1999. 3. Westwind update. A summary of recently completed work was presented. Differences between the Lamb and Jenkinson derived PCSM trends were noted. Relationships between CET (from 1921) Tmin and Tmax and discrete wind directions for successive 15-year slices were analysed. Additional work will be completed along these lines using CET Tmin/Tmax back to 1890 and using shorter averaging periods (e.g. 5-years), before work commences on analysing HADAM2b runs. 4. CRU update. Two aspects of work were presented. a. An intercomparison of about 10 near-global precip. climatologies has recently commenced. This will enable uncertainties in 'true' global precip. trends and patterns to be quantified. Comparison with NWP re-analysis products may yet be premature. This work has also included a new assessment of the biases introduced into OLR-derived precip. estimates because of changing equator crossing times. b. Work comparing airflow/weather relationships over the UK in observations and in the HADCM2 control simulation has continued. This has used Jenkinson-type indices to evaluate GCM performance. This work will be written up in the next few weeks. 5. Monthly CLIMAT screening. Staffing changes at the Hadley Centre have created some pressures on continuing with full CLIMAT QC. It was recognised as essential, however, that this QC work be maintained. Some rationalisation could be achieved by excluding T stations not used by CRU. Also, possible co-ordination of QC work with Germany and Japan might be possible in the future. This will get looked at again by the soon to be appointed Hadley Centre data manager. 6. DETR funding and priorities. In the absence of DETR, this item was postponed. Minutes of this meeting will form the basis of a follow-up meeting between CRU and DETR. 7. Request from 'Weather' for monthly climate data. Roger Brugge's request was discussed. Quarterly reports in Weather were felt to be most appropriate. These could include CET and global and hemispheric temperatures, but EWP would need to wait until later in 1998. The exact timing of availability for 'Weather' needs to be resolved. The Hadley Centre may be placing some of these data on their web site. Actions (excluding bilateral arrangements between Hadley and Westwind) 1. The Jenkinson index to be publicised as the 'official' replacement for Lamb. 2. Met. Office to supply 1961-1997 EWR to CRU as an interim solution to the EWP update. 3. Hadley Centre to initiate production of EWP as soon as feasible over the next months and certainly by the autumn. This task has in fact now (23/1/98) agreed to be done by the technical department of the services and business division of the Met. Office and Briony will transfer Phil's software to them. 4. CRU to approach BADC for daily precip. updates (post-1983) for the UK regional precip. series. Also to enquire about daily SYNOP data. 5. Hadley Centre to send GISST CD-ROM to CRU for use in creating Tmean global climatology. 6. CRU to explore changing daily P intensities in the UK and to evaluate opportunity/desirability of using hourly series for such investigation. 7. David Parker and Phil Jones to decide on availability schedule of global temperature data for 'Weather'. Mike Hulme to reply to Roger Brugge. 8. Phil Jones to supply Hadley Centre with a list of redundant T stations in CLIMAT messages. 9. Tim Osborn to supply Hadley Centre and Westwind with a set of summary diagrams re. validation work on HADCM2 (for internal use only). The next progress meeting will be held in Bracknell on Thursday 16th July (with Thursday 2nd July as a back-up date). 2262. 1998-02-13 12:39:40 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 13 Feb 1998 12:39:40 -0000 from: Magna Specialist Confectioners subject: Climate change in the UK to: "m.hulme" Dear Dr Hulme, I am the Resource director of Magna Specialist Confectioners a company in Telford who manufacture chocolate confectionery. We are members of the British Cake Chocolate and Confectionery Alliance. This organization is the focal point for all companies in our industry including some global players such as Cadbury, Nestle, and Mars. This year we a chairing our annual conference and are responsible for producing a theme and speakers. We have decided that the theme to the conference will be "predicting the unpredictable". We aim to open the conference with a speaker to discuss the theory of prediction. Then to lead into four speakers on a diverse range of topics where prediction of the future is regularly performed and where the subject is relevant to our industry. We aim to end the conference with a speaker who represents a large business who currently try to predict future external events and how they may impact on their company. In the main section of the conference we want to have a section on climate and how changes in the future can be predicted and what impact possible changes would have on the consumers and consumption patterns for out products. Having studied climate change some 15 years ago at UCL I was drawn to the UEA knowing the type of work carried out at the CRU. Having investigated the website and the description of your book Climates of the British Isles: present, past and future, I wondered if you would be interested in discussing this speaking opportunity further. The conference will be attended by senior executives of a wide range of members of the Alliance. Obviously we would discuss fees at the appropriate time. Yours Sincerely Tim Green 2464. 1998-02-20 08:58:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Fri, 20 Feb 1998 08:58:42 +200 from: hleusch@gwdg.de subject: reimburse to: j.sear@uea.ac.uk Dr. Hanns Hubert Leuschner Inst. f. Palynologie University Goettingen e-mail copy of a letter sent by snail mail today Cc to Dr. Keith Briffa CRU UEA For the attention of Mrs. Janet Sear The Registry Finance Division University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 /TJ England Grant ref. EV5V-CT94-0500 Dear Mrs. Sear We have recieved your letter and e-mail. Please excuse "disallowed", I had in mind a much softer meaning than it has now after looking at the dictionary. Nevertheless I can not agree with your request. We have checked all our cost statements as well as the cost statement from Bruxelles with the payment breakdown details. We found out that there is a disagreement concerning the second cost statement (period 07/95- 07/96). The exchange rate of ECU/DM at the time of the transfer of the money (04/96) had been 1.88. That means that we have spent in this period not 68.160 ECU but 70.719,10 ECU. In agreement with that your second transfer of 32.316,88 ECU had been exchanged to 60.711,83 DM. In the payment breakdown an exchange rate of about 1.95 as at the end of the project is taken into account. We have spent the whole money for the project except 732,72 ECU. This "overpayment" is mainly due to the high exchange rate for the final 10% rate. I therefore only agree to reimburse this calculated difference of 732,62 ECU. Yours sincerely Hanns Hubert Leuschner 3778. 1998-02-24 15:20:47 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 24 Feb 1998 15:20:47 +0300 (MSK) from: From to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk TO: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk SUBJECT: IGBP-NES program Date: February 23, 1998 Krasnoyasrk Dear Dr. Briffa, We send you suggestions on the forming of IGBP-NES program management and forming of international research groups to realize works on the Yenisei meridional transect. To coordinate research works it is suggested on recommendation of Will Steffen, Anatoly Shvidenko, G. Zavarzin, V. Kotlyakov, A. Isaev, D. Efremov to form the International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC), including: Vaganov (Russia) as the Chair and Leader of the Yenisei transect; Yefremov (Russia) as the Co-Chair and Leader of the Far East transect; Steffen (Australia), Inoue (Japan), Schulze (Germany), Shvidenko (Russia) as Deputy Chairs (each of them has to have some definite permanent obligations). Members: Russia - Kondrashov (FEAST coordinator), Pleshikov (YM coordinator), Kamensky (Yakutsk), Zimov (Cherskiy), Zavarzin, Kotlyakov, Isaev. It was also suggested to include two governers of the Krasnoyarsk krai and Khabarovsk krai or their Vice- governers. It seems to be a very good suggestion if it could be realized. International Community -Goldammer (Germany), Chapin (USA), Apps (Canada), Fukuda (Japan), Deering (USA), Fosberg (IGBP), Don Lee (Korea). Based on questionnaires processing of the International workshop participants concerning the study of global changes in the Yenisei IGBP-NES Transect (Krasnoyarsk, September 1997) five international research groups are formed. The main information on these groups (work interests, leaders of the groups, list of the participants, funding, sponsors) is given in enclosure applied. Sincerely yours Dr. Elena Muratova, Assistant of Chairman of IGBP-NES (Siberian IGBP Transect Conference) begin 777 igbp.doc MT,\1X*&Q&N$`````````````````````.P`#`/[_"0`&```````````````! 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The same is true for pn3 which is precip at a specific location normalized by the global average temp for that specific GCM. The deltaTglobal(time) that I refer to below is provided by the Energy Balance Climate/Upwelling Diffusion Ocean model which provides the global average temperature. Regards, Larry PS. Mike, Hugh Pitcher has suggested that I make you aware of our COSMIC model. Since Joel has provided your email address, let me use this opportunity to direct you to Michael Schlesinger's web page that has an announcement letter and a few sample screens from the model. The url is: http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu If you would like a copy of the model just let me know. It is available with a no-cost license. Larry Williams |voice: + (650) 855-2695 EPRI |fax: + (650) 855-2950 3412 Hillview Ave | email:ljwillia@epri.com Palo Alto, CA 94304-1395 USA >-----Original Message----- >From: Joel Smith [SMTP:JSMITH@habaco.com] >Sent: Tuesday, February 24, 1998 5:23 PM >To: Williams, Larry >Cc: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk >Subject: RE: COSMIC summary -Reply > >Larry, > >I believe SCENGEN does it somewhat differently, but I am cc'ing Mike Hulme on >this to be sure. > >I believe SCENGEN uses the ratio of temperature change at a specific location >(2xCO2 - 1xCO2) to change in global average temperature for a specific GCM >and >holds that ratio constant while changing global average temperature. I think >precipitation is measures as the ratio of 2xCO2 to 1xCO2 for the given >location >and the ratio is normalized by the change in global average temperature. The >precipitation is slightly different, but still generally similar to COSMIC. > >Mike, please comment if I misinterpreted SCENGEN. > >Joel > >>>> "Williams, Larry" 02/24/98 06:03pm >>> >Joel, > >It looks ok--but I am not 100 percent sure how SCENGEN does the scaling. >Here is how I do it: >To get the "normalized" GCM data I divided the country specific GCM data >as follows: >* tn3 = "normalized" temp = [t2x -t1x]/(deltaT in ) = dimensionless >* pn3 = "normalized" prec, = [p2x-p1x]/(deltaT in ) = in/(month- ) >* tn3(i,j,k) and pn3(i,j,k) where i=1:158 countries, j=1:12 months, >k=1:14 GCMs >Then I multiply by the deltaTglobal(time) to get country specific temp >and precip. If that >is how SCENGEN does it, then everything is ok. > >Larry > >Larry Williams |voice: + (650) 855-2695 >EPRI |fax: + (650) 855-2950 >3412 Hillview Ave | email:ljwillia@epri.com >Palo Alto, CA 94304-1395 >USA > >>-----Original Message----- >>From: Joel Smith [SMTP:JSMITH@habaco.com] >>Sent: Tuesday, February 24, 1998 4:26 PM >>To: Williams, Larry >>Subject: COSMIC summary >> >>Hi Larry, >> >>I wonder if you would not mind reading the following brief summary of COSMIC >>to >>see if it is accurate. This will appear in a UNEP handbook which is an >>overview >>of options for assessing climate change impacts. >> >>thanks a lot, >> >>Joel >> >>********************************* >> >>In addition, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the Electric >>Power Research Institute developed a scenario generator that runs on a desk >>top >>PC, called the Country Specific Model for Intertemporal Climate (COSMIC). >>It >>allows the user to choose between seven sulphate emissions scenarios, ten >>greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (based on the IPCC (Schimel et al., >>1996) >>and the *WRE* stabilization scenarios (Wigley et al., 1996), outputs from >>fourteen GCM models. The model uses a >>energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-ocean model to calculate changes >>in >>mean global temperature and sea level on an annual basis out to 2200. >>COSMIC >>scales the GCM outputs to 0.5o cells and averages the changes in each half >>degree cell for each of 158 countries (Williams et al., in press). The >>scaling >>of the GCMs is done in the same fashion as SCENGEN (Larry Williams, EPRI, >>personal communication). Results for changes in temperature and >>precipitation >>are given for each month in up to the year requested by the user. > 4129. 1998-02-24 19:31:55 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 24 Feb 1998 19:31:55 -0500 from: Joel Smith subject: COSMIC to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, Sorry to bother you again about the Scenarios Chapter. Jan Feenstra asked if we would mention the COSMIC model developed by Mike Schlesinger and Larry Williams (of EPRI). I drafted the following paragraph, which appears below my name. I suggest putting it at the end of the section describing SCENGEN. If you want to learn more about COSMIC, its web page address is: http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu/COSMIC/announce.html thanks, Joel **************************************************** In addition, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the Electric Power Research Institute developed a scenario generator that runs on a desk top PC, called the Country Specific Model for Intertemporal Climate (COSMIC). It allows the user to choose between seven sulphate emissions scenarios, ten greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (based on the IPCC (Schimel et al., 1996) and the *WRE* stabilization scenarios (Wigley et al., 1996), outputs from fourteen GCM models. The model uses a energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-ocean model to calculate changes in mean global temperature and sea level on an annual basis out to 2200. COSMIC scales the GCM outputs to 0.5o cells and averages the changes in each half degree cell for each of 158 countries (Williams et al., in press). The scaling of the GCMs is done in the same fashion as SCENGEN (Larry Williams, EPRI, personal communication). Results for changes in temperature and precipitation are given for each month in up to the year requested by the user. 2726. 1998-02-27 14:40:37 ______________________________________________________ cc: Mike Hulme date: 27 Feb 1998 14:40:37 -0700 from: Tom Wigley subject: MAG.F and EXE (2 of 2) to: Mike Salmon REGARDING MAG.F and EXE (2 of 2) C MAG.FOR C C Revision history: C C 980223 * NVALUES PUT BACK INTO MAGUSER.CFG. C 980216 * FORMAT STATEMENT 226 RETURNED TO ORIGINAL VERSION. ALL FILE C NAMES SET TO LOWER CASE TO ACCORD WITH SCENGEN. C 980210 * NVALUES REMOVED FROM MAGUSER.CFG AND SET IN MAIN PROGRAM. C 980208 * REGIONAL SULPHATE AEROSOL PATTERN DRIVERS CORRECTED (OUTPUT C IN LO*, MID*, HI* AND USRDRIVE.OUT). THE PROBLEM WITH C CALCULATING THESE IS THAT THE RAW TEMPERATURES (TSO21,2,3) C CALCULATED BY USING THE SO2 EMISSIONS IN REGIONS 1,2,3 C ALONE ARE INTERNALLY INCONSISTENT BECAUSE OF THE NONLINEAR C RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ESO2 AND INDIRECT AEROSOL FORCING. C IN OTHER WORDS, IN GENERAL, TALL (TEMPS WITH FULL SO2 C EMISSIONS) MINUS TGHG (TEMPS WITH NO SO2 EMISSIONS CHANGES C AFTER 1990) WILL NOT EQUAL TSO21+TSO22+TSO23. TO CORRECT C FOR THIS, THE FIRST METHOD USED WAS TO CALCULATE REGION 3 C TEMPS BY SUBTRACTING REGION 1 PLUS REGION 2 RESULTS FROM C THE GLOBAL EMISSIONS RESULTS. THIS AT LEAST GIVES THE C CORRECT SUM, BUT CAN LEAD TO RIDICULOUS RESULTS FOR REGION C 3; FOR EXAMPLE, IF REGION 3 EMISSIONS ARE ZERO, IT WILL C GIVE NONZERO TEMPS. THIS METHOD HAS THE 'ADVANTAGE' OF C REQUIRING ONLY 16 NSIM LOOPS, SINCE REGION 3 RESULTS ARE C NOT DIRECTLY CALCULATED. THE SECOND METHOD TRIED WAS TO C USE THE REGIONAL BREAKDOWN OF FORCING TO SCALE REGIONAL C TEMPERATURE RESULTS, AS CALCULATED BY THE MODEL. (THIS C REQUIRES 4 MORE NSIM LOOPS TO COVER REGION 3.) WHILE THIS C METHOD AVOIDS GIVING RIDICULOUS RESULTS, IT STILL REQUIRES C ADDITIONAL CALCULATIONS TO GET THE FORCING BREAKDOWN. THE C THIRD (AND BEST) METHOD IS TO CALCULATE THE FULL SET OF C REGIONAL TEMPS (REQUIRING 20 NSIM LOOPS) AND THEN SCALING C THE TSO2i BY (TALL-TGHG)/(SUM TSO2i) (GIVING XSO2i AS THE C PATTERN DRIVER WEIGHTS). THIS IS THE METHOD NOW C IMPLEMENTED. FOR DIAGNOSTIC PURPOSES, THE UNSCALED WEIGHTS C ARE OUTPUT TO L0*, MID*, HI* AND USRDRIVE.RAW. THE WEIGHTS C TO USE IN SCENGEN ARE OUTPUT TO LO*, MID*, HI* AND C USRDRIVE.OUT. ALL THIS INVOLVED SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE C CODE, TOO NUMEROUS TO ITEMIZE. C 980120 * OUTPUT OF FORCING DETAILS (DECADAL BREAKDOWN AND LAND/OCEAN C SPLIT) MOVED OUT OF MAG.OUT TO QDETAILS.OUT. C 980118 * 'common /SecOrd/iSecYear,SecCH4' removed : no longer used. C dcdt90 and emiss removed from 'common /TauMeth/' C 980110 * METHANE SOIL LIFETIME SPECIFICATION MOVED TO MAGEXTRA.CFG C INSTANTANEOUS METHANE LIFETIME ADDED TO MAG.OUT OUTPUT. C NEW 1980-1990 CH4 HISTORY ADDED (ACCESSED BY SETTING C METHHIST>0 IN MAGEXTRA.CFG) IN WHICH MID-1990 VALUES C ARE C = 1700 ppbv, dC/dt = 10 ppbv/yr (AS IN IPCC SAR). C 971227 * CONCENTRATION OUTPUT SECTION IN MAG.OUT CHANGED TO GIVE C MIDYEAR INSTEAD OF END OF YEAR CONCS. C 971214 * METHANE PARAMS CHANGED TO GIVE BETTER SIMULATIONS OF IPCC C SAR RESULTS AS PER TABLE 2.5a IN SAR. 1990 TAU SET TO 9.1: C PREVIOUSLY 9.08. IF DELTAU IS SET AT +/- 0.8 (CF. IPCC C RANGE IS +/- 1.8), WHICH MAKES HIGH TAU = 9.9, AND C ITAUMETH IS SET AT 3 (WHICH GIVES UPPER BOUND CONCS FOR C THE ORIGINAL OSBORN & WIGLEY MODEL) THEN OUTPUT AGREES C EXTREMELY WELL PRATHER'S IPCC RESULTS. THIS IMPLIES THAT C PRATHER'S MODEL MUST HAVE A HIGH TAU AND/OR A TAU C SENSITIVITY THAT DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL C OSBORN & WIGLEY VALUE. C C COMPARISON OF PRATHER IPCC (CH.2) AND CURRENT MODEL (IPCC C VALUES HAVE 17ppbv ADDED BECAUSE THE IPCC VALUE IN 1990 C IS 17ppbv BELOW THE VALUE USED HERE - THIS MAKES THE C COMPARISON HERE MORE TRUE TO A FORCING COMPARISON). C C RESULTS BELOW ARE IN ORDER : OLD VERSION (I.E., NUMBER C USED IN CH.6 OF SAR); NEW VERSION; IPCC (CH.2). NOTE THAT C THE MAIN REASON WHY THE CH.6 VALUES ARE SO DIFFERENT FROM C THE IPCC CH.2 VALUES IS THAT THE PRESENT MODEL WAS TUNED C TO AN EARLY VERSION OF PRATHER'S RESULTS. (THESE RESULTS C WERE REVISED ON 12/27/97 BY USING ACTUAL MIDYEAR MODEL C OUTPUT. PREVIOUSLY HAD INTERPOLATED FROM DECADAL DATA.) C C SCENARIO 2050 CONCS 2100 CONCS C IS92A,B 2752 2821 2810 3461 3603 3633 C IS92C 2147 2249 2241 1999 2092 2086 C IS92D 2154 2256 2247 2058 2163 2163 C IS92E 2959 3041 3031 4097 4289 4308 C IS92F 2982 3066 3055 4477 4694 4686 C CH.6 NEW CH.2 CH.6 NEW CH.2 C C THE TABLE BELOW COMPARES NEW WITH OLD (IPCC CH.6) T & MSL C CHANGES OVER 1990-2100. C C SCENARIO SIMULATION OLD DT NEW DT OLD DMSL NEW DMSL C IS92C LOW 0.8622 0.8747 12.63 12.86 C IS92A MID 2.0308 2.0504 48.94 49.28 C IS92E HIGH 3.5260 3.5601 94.75 95.21 C C 971213 * ERROR IN CORRECTING INPUT METHANE EMISSIONS FOR 1990 C IMBALANCE CORRECTED (SUBSTANTIAL REVISION). THIS WAS FIRST C CORRECTED IN OPT.FOR ON 961024. IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE C TO THE OUTPUT: OUTPUT IS ONLY AFFECTED FOR NON-ZERO DELTAU. C IN PREVIOUS VERSION OF THE CODE, DELTAU WAS SET TO ZERO. C 971123 * TWO ERRORS FOUND C (1) S90IND=0.0 INPUT CAUSES CRASH. CORRECTED TEMPORARILY C BY RESETTING S90IND=-0.0001 C (2) EQUIVCO2 MISCALCULATED (USED IF NOUT=4 ONLY). C CODE CORRECTED. C 970728 * NOTES TO USER : C EMISSIONS INPUT IS VIA GAS.EM. THIS USED TO BE CALLED C GASEM.$$$. C OUTPUT FILES QFORCE, LO* MID* HI* & USRDRIVE NOT FULLY C IMPLEMENTED IN THIS VERSION. SHOULD USE ISCENGEN=0 C ONLY IN MAGUSER.CFG. C DATE SUBROUTINE getdat MAY NOT WORK ON ALL MACHINES. C TO GET AN IDEA HOW THIS PROGRAM WORKS READ THE COMMENTS C IN THIS FILE AND IN THE .CFG FILES. C 970721 * ERROR IN TEMP PRINTOUT CORRECTED (AFFECTED NOUT=1 ONLY) C 960420 * ICOLD OPTION REMOVED FROM CODE C 960420 * NSIM LOOP CHANGED SO THAT FORCING ONLY CALCULATED C ON FIRST PASS THROUGH LOOP. FOR FULL SCENGEN RUN C (NUMSIMS=16), THIS CUTS RUN TIME BY 12% C 960415 * CHECKED FOR CONSISTENCY WITH STAG.FOR C NUMSIMS (LOOP FOR FULL MODEL RUNS) MODIFIED TO COVER C ADDITIONAL AEROSOL RUNS FOR SCENGEN INPUT C OUTPUT FILES ADDED FOR DATA TRANSFER TO SCENGEN C 960308 * RUN TIME FOR VARIABLE W REDUCED BY 55% BY PUTTING C INITIAL TEMP PROFILE CALCULATION IN SUBROUTINE INIT. C OPTION ADDED TO USE OBSERVED INITIAL TEMP PROFILE C INSTEAD OF THEORETICAL (EXPONENTIAL) PROFILE. C 960226 * CO2 HISTORY REMOVED FROM BLOCK DATA TO CO2HIST.IN C 951205 * OPTION ADDED TO CHANGE W(t) AT DIFF RATES IN NH VS SH C 951109 * CO2SCALE CHANGED TO APPLY TO ICO2READ = 1, 3 & 4 C 951108 * EXTRA Q INPUT FILE RENAMED QEXTRA.IN C 951005 * METHANE TEMPERATURE FEEDBACK REVISED BUT NOT ACTIVATED C 950911 * SEPARATED FROM STAG.FOR FOR NEW MAGICC C 950814 * MINOR CHANGE MADE TO QCH4OZ TO ENSURE THAT MID 1990 C VALUE IS EXACTLY 0.08. THIS IS NECESSARY IF TOTAL C O3 FORCING IS TO BE 0.40 IN MID 1990. C BUG IN 1990 S90OZ VALUE FINALLY TRACKED DOWN! C 950811 * MINOR CHANGES MADE RE OZONE FORCING AROUND 1990. OUTPUT C DOESN'T QUITE GIVE S90OZ VALUE IN 1990, BUT CORRECT C VALUES ARE USED INTERNALLY. BUG STILL NOT QUITE FIXED. C 950810 * OPTION ADDED TO USE OLD (INPUT=0) OR NEW GASEM.$$$ FILES C CH4-INDUCED OZONE TERM ADDED AS OUTPUT TO DELQ BREAKDOWN C 950808 * REVISED IPCC CONCENTRATION HISTORY OF JUNE 1995 ADDED. C NEW BCO2 FORMULA INSERTED TO ACCOUNT FOR REVISED CONC C HISTORY. C CONVOLUTION CONSTANTS UPDATED. C PSI FOR OCEAN FLUX UPDATED. C DN(1990) UPDATED. C CORRECTION MADE TO ALGORITHM FOR ADDING IN METHANE C OXIDATION CONTIBUTION TO FOSSIL CO2 EMISSIOMS. C 950804 * GAS-BY-GAS DQ BREAKDOWN CHANGED SO THAT TROP O3 ASSOC C WITH METHANE IS INCLUDED WITH TROP O3 RATHER THAN CH4. C 950719 * STAG.CFG INPUT ORDER CHANGED AND RATIONALIZED C 950717 * QEXTRA INPUT EXPANDED TO ALLOW SEPARATE INPUT FROM ALL C BOXES (NHO, NHL, SHO AND SHL) C 950715 * CUMULATIVE ROUNDOFF TIME ERROR CORRECTION ALGORITHM C IMPROVED C UNNECESSARY ITEMS RELATED TO STAGOPT.FOR REMOVED C QEXTRA INPUT ADDED (SET BY IQREAD, DATA FROM QEXTRA.DAT) C METHOD TO GET SPATIAL FORCING BREAKDOWN ALTERED C QGLOBE (=MIDYEAR DELTA-Q) ARRAY ADDED C CALC OF TEQU MOVED TO RUNMOD SUBROUTINE C 950612 * CARBON CYCLE BCO2, CPART AND AA UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR C NEW INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS HISTORY. BCO2 FIT SIMPLIFIED. C 950610 * OPTIONS ADDED TO ADD SINGLE YEAR PULSE OR STEP EMISSIONS C FOR CO2, CH4, N2O OR SO2. OUTPUT IN STAGPULS.OUT C OPTION TO CHANGE DELQ(2xCO2) ADDED TO STAG.CFG C 950609 * ICOMP AND IQCONST ALGORITHMS CORRECTED C 950529 * INPUT FROM GASEM.$$$ CHANGED TO ALLOW ANY NUMBER OF C KEY YEARS C ICO2READ SWITCH MODIFIED : C =1, USES JUST CO2 FORCING AS DETERMINED BY CONCS FROM C CO2INPUT.DAT, SCALED BY CO2SCALE AS SPECIFIED NOW C IN STAG.CFG C =2, USES CO2 CONCS FROM CO2INPUT.DAT AND OTHER GASES C FROM GASEM.$$$ C =3, USES CO2 CONCS FROM CO2INPUT.DAT AND AEROSOL C FROM GASEM.$$$. OTHER GASES IGNORED. C =4, USES CO2 CONCS FROM CO2INPUT.DAT AND AEROSOL C BY SCALING EFOSS FROM GASEM.$$$. OTHER GASES IGNORED. C 950410 * NOUT OPTIONS INCREASED C 950402 * CARBON CYCLE MODEL PARAMS UPDATED TO IPCC95/6 C (1980S MASS INCREASE = 3.28GtC/yr) C 950329 * CH4 AND N2O INPUT METHOD CHANGED. CORRECTION APPLIED TO C ALL VALUES EQUAL TO ERROR IN 1990 BASED ON 1990 VALUE C BEING CONSISTENT WITH TAU, C AND DC/DT IN 1990 C 950316 * CARBON CYCLE MODEL PARAMS UPDATED TO IPCC94/5 C (1980S MASS INCREASE = 3.24GtC/yr) c 950315 * CH4 SOIL SINK TAU CHANGED TO 160YRS, FROM PRATHER. c CORRECTION MADE TO USE TAUINIT CORRECTLY. C 950315 * OZONE HISTORY CHANGED C 950312 * NH/SH AND LAND OCEAN SPLIT REVISED C 950311 * TROP O3 ASSOCIATED WITH CH4 CHANGES ADDED C CO2 CONC HISTORY CHANGED TO FEB 95 VERSION OF IPCC c 950309 * TROP O3 SEPARATED FROM AEROSOLS C QBIO PUT INTO ARRAY C RAD FORCING OUTPUTS REVISED C GREENLAND PARAMS RESTORED TO IPCC90 VALUES C GSIC MODEL PARAMS ALTERED FOR MANYTAU CASE C ANTARCTIC DB3 CHANGED TO -0.04(0.01)0.06 C 950306 * GLACIER AND SMALL ICE CAP (GSIC) MODEL COMPLETELY REVISED c 950224 * NEW AEROSOL VALUES AND INPUT METHOD ADDED. c 950215 * NEW SMALL GLACIER & ICE SHEET MODELS INSERTED. C 950214 * DIFFERENTIAL CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ADDED. C VARIABLE UPWELLING RATE ADDED. C OPTION FOR STEP OR RAMP-TO-CONSTANT DELQ ADDED. C 941122 * SMALL GLACIER OPTION ADDED (ICEOPT) C ICEOPT=1, ORIGINAL PARAMETERS C ICEOPT=2, REVISED Z0 & TAU, ORIG OBS DEL-MSL C ICEOPT=3, AS 2 WITH OBS DEL-MSL HALVED C 941122 * GREENLAND AND ANTARCTIC MELT SENSITIVITIES CHANGED C PER WARRICK EMAIL (G, 0.25+/-0.15, A, -0.30+/-0.15) C 941118 * OPTIONS ADDED TO REMOVE GHG FORCING (IGHG=0 C IN STAG.CFG) AND TO REMOVE ALL GHG FORCING EXCEPT C CO2 (IGHG=1 IN STAG.CFG). NOTE THAT GHG FORCING C HERE INCLUDES BIOMASS AEROSOL FORCING AND TROP O3. C 941016 * VARIOUS CHANGES MADE TO ACCORD WITH IPCC94. AEROSOL C FORCING CHANGED TO A BEST GUESS DIRECT VALUE IN 1990 C OF 0.38W/m**2. INDIRECT FORCING MADE EQUAL TO DIRECT. C PIECEWISE LINEAR BIOMASS BURNING AEROSOL TERM ADDED C RISING TO -0.16W/m**2 IN 1990, ROUGHLY TRACKING C TROPICAL GROSS DEFOR. TROP OZONE ADDED IN SULPHATE C SUBROUTINE SO AS TO BE SPLIT NH/SH AS FOR AEROSOLS. C FORCING TRACKS SO2 EMISSIONS TO +0.3W/m**2 IN 1990. C NH/SH SPLIT FOR AEROSOLS CHANGED FROM 9/1 TO 7/1. c 940918 * DN80S CHANGED TO 0.4(1.1)1.8 C 940715 * N2O HISTORY CHANGED TO ACCORD MORE FULLY WITH IPCC94 c 940715 * LIFETIMES FOR F11, F12, F22, F134A, N2O CHANGED TO C MATCH IPCC94 C 940713 * MINOR CHANGE TO FORMAT STATEMENT 201 C 940701 * INIT N2O CHANGED TO 270PPBV C 940617 * EXTRA CALL TO METHANE SUBROUTINE ADDED C 940616 * METHANE SUBROUTINE CORRECTED C 940517 * SWITCH ADDED TO ADD IN RANDOM FORCING C 940508 * NEW (TELLUS) CARBON CYCLE MODEL INSERTED C 940401 * CFC SUBROUTINE SIMPLIFIED. PRODUCTION INPUT ELIMINATED C 940401 * EXPANSION ALGORITHM CHANGED TO INCREMENT EXPN AT EACH C TIME STEP. OLD ALGORITHM RETAINED AND ACCESSIBLE VIA C STAG.CFG. (THIS HAS NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON OUTPUT) C 940331 * OPTION ADDED TO PRINT OUT LAND/OCEAN OR TOP/BOTTOM C TEMPS INSTEAD OF NH/SH (NOUT). NOUT=3 ALSO GIVES TEMP C DISEQUILIBRIUM. NOUT=4 IS AS NOUT=3, BUT GIVES EQUIV C CO2 INSTEAD OF DELTA-Q C 940328 * COLD START ALGORITHM CORRECTED TO ACCOUNT FOR AEROSOLS C 940324 * ICO2READ SWITCH (940117) GENERALIZED TO READ CO2 CONCS C IF ICO2READ=1 OR 2, AND CALCULATE QTOT BY SCALING UP C QCO2 OF ICO2READ=1 OR BY ADDING OTHER GASES FROM C GASEM.$$$ IF ICO2READ=2. C 940322 * ICOMP SWITCH GENERALIZED. ICOLD=1 SETS DELQ=0.0 TO MID C 1990. ICOMP=1 OVERWRITES POST-1990 FORCING WITH C COMPOUNDED CO2 INCREASE AT COMPRATE. C 940321 * NEW SWITCH ADDED TO DO COMPOUNDED CO2 AND COLD START. C ICOMP=1 GIVES OBS DELQ TO MID 1990, THEN COMPOUND CO2 C AT COMPRATE. ICOMP=2 DITTO BUT DELQ=0.0 TO MID 1990. C 940318 * SWITCH ADDED TO DO 1% COMPOUND CO2 INCREASE POST-1990 C ACCESSED BY PUTTING ICO2READ=9. ZERO FORCING TO 1990. C 940317 * CORRECTION MADE TO 940117 CHANGE C 940316 * STAG.CFG CHANGED TO ALLOW SPECIFICN OF PI, W, K & H. C 940117 * N2O HISTORY CHANGED AGAIN C 940117 * SWITCH ADDED TO STAG.CFG TO ALLOW CO2 CONCS TO BE READ C FROM CO2INPUT.DAT TO OVER-RIDE CALCULATED CO2 CONCS. C OTHER GAS FORCINGS ARE ACCOUNTED FOR BY SCALING CO2 C FORCING BY FACTOR SPECIFIED IN CO2INPUT.DAT c 940104 * ISULPH INPUT IN STAG.CFG CHANGED TO DIRECT INPUT OF C FACTOR THAT MULTIPLIES BEST GUESS FORCING VALUE (XSULF) C 940103 * MORE GENERAL LOOP FOR DELTA-T2X PUT INTO STAG.CFG C 931230 * IPCC CO2 CONC HISTORY INSERTED AND N2O HISTORY C CHANGED TO HAVE INIT VALUE OF 265 INSTEAD OF 285. C 931229 * SPLIT FROM STAG92B.FOR. RENAMED STAG.FOR, CFG FILE C RENAMED STAG.CFG AND OUTPUT RENAMED STAG.OUT C 931022 * LAST YEAR (LASTYEAR) FOR MODEL RUN ADDED TO CFG FILE C 930120 * MORE MINOR CHANGES FOR CONSISTENCY WITH MAGMOD.FOR C 930119 * CONST CH4 TAU OPTION ADDED FOR CONSISTENCY WITH MAGMOD.FOR C (VIA STAG92B.CFG THRU ITAUMETH=4, AND CHOSEN TAU90CH4) C 930117 * HALOCARBONS CHANGED TO ACCOUNT FOR ISAKSEN ET AL REPORT C ON CFC14 AND CFC116, AND REVISED 1990 CONCS FOR CFC13 C AND METH/ENE CHLORIDE. CHANGE IN HISTORY TO GET REVISED C 1990 EQUIV HFC134a CONC. CHANGE IN SCALING FACTORS TOO. C 930104 * CH4 & N20 DELTA-Q REVISED TO ALLOW VARIABLE INIT CONCS. C 921221 * TIME STEP PUT INTO STAG92B.CFG C 921220 * PRINTOUT (ESCOUT.DAT) MODIFIED AND IMPROVED C 921219 * HALOCARBON SCALING FACTORS REVISED AGAIN C * HFC134a CONC REPLACED BY EQUIV HFC134a CONC C 921216 * HALO COMMON BLOCK ADDED TO MAIN AND DELTAQ C * IO3FEED AND ISULPH SPECIFICATION PUT INTO STAG92B.CFG C 921215 * HALOCARBON SCALING FACTORS REVISED C 921126 * ERROR IN SULPHATE FORCING PRIOR TO 1990 CORRECTED BY C CHANGING HISTORY (ONLY OCCURRED FOR NSIM=1) C * ERRORS IN FORMULAE FOR INITIAL OCEAN TEMP PROFILE CORRECTED C * PRINTOUT OF KYRREF ADDED C * IY0, IPRT AND KYRREF ADDED TO STAG92.CFG c 921020 * date/name line c 920918 * changes to output C 920916 * .CFG file added C * changes to carbon cycle INITs c * OUTPUT changed c * block data added for RS/6000 compatability c 920915 * split from STAG92A; new CARBON +init+commons c ------ c 920915 * minor correction to SULPHATE c 920911 * revised HISTORY & CFC scaling factors; temps back to 1990; c changed dcdt90 c 920910 * DT changed from 1.0 to 0.1 c * slight changes to output text c * XKNS from 1 to 3 c * temps from 1765 c * array errors fixedin forcing c 920909 * split from STAGGER; heavily cut down C ----- C c------------------------------------------------------------------------------- c Written by Tom Wigley, Sarah Raper & Mike Salmon, Climatic Research Unit, UEA. c------------------------------------------------------------------------------- c PROGRAM CLIMAT C C THIS IS THE CLIMATE MODEL MODULE. C parameter (iTp =550) C common /Limits/KEND C INTEGER IY1(100) DIMENSION DCH4(100),DN2O(100) DIMENSION DSO2(100),DSO21(100),DSO22(100),DSO23(100) DIMENSION FOS(100),DEF(100) DIMENSION QSO2SAVE(0:iTp+1),QDIRSAVE(0:iTp+1) DIMENSION QRATIO(3,227:iTp+1) C DIMENSION TEMUSER(iTp),TEMLO(iTp),TEMMID(iTp),TEMHI(iTp), &TEMNOSO2(iTp) DIMENSION SLUSER(iTp),SLLO(iTp),SLMID(iTp),SLHI(iTp), &SLNOSO2(iTp) DIMENSION TALL(4,iTp-225),TGHG(4,iTp-225),TSO21(4,iTp-225), &TSO22(4,iTp-225),TSO23(4,iTp-225),TREF(4) DIMENSION XSO21(4,iTp-225),XSO22(4,iTp-225),XSO23(4,iTp-225) C COMMON/CLIM/IC,IP,KC,DT,DZ,FK,HM,Q2X,QXX,PI,T,TE,TEND,W0,XK,XKLO, +XKNS,XLAM,FL(2),FO(2),FLSUM,FOSUM,HEM(2),P(40),TEM(40),TO(2,40), +AL,BL,CL,DTH,DTZ,DZ1,XLL,WWW,XXX,YYY,RHO,SPECHT,HTCONS,Y(4) C C NOTE THAT EMISSIONS AND DELAY BOX ARRAYS START WITH J=226, =1990. C COMMON/CONCS/CH4(iTp),CN2O(iTp),C11(iTp),C12(iTp),C22(iTp), &C134EQ(iTp),ECH4(226:iTp),EN2O(226:iTp),ECO(226:iTp), &EVOC(226:iTp),ENOx(226:iTp),ESO2(0:iTp+1),ESO2SUM(226:iTp+1), &ESO21(226:iTp+1),ESO22(226:iTp+1),ESO23(226:iTp+1) C COMMON/COBS/COBS(0:226) C COMMON/CARB/CCO2(4,224:iTp),EDGROSS(4,226:iTp),EF(226:iTp), ®ROW(4,226:iTp),PL(4,226:iTp),HL(4,226:iTp),SOIL(4,226:iTp), &TTT(226:iTp),ESUM(226:iTp),ETOT(4,226:iTp),EDNET90(4), &FOC(4,226:iTp),co2(0:iTp) C COMMON/TANDSL/TEQU(iTp),TGAV(iTp),TNHO(iTp), &TSHO(iTp),TNHL(iTp),TSHL(iTp),TDEEP(iTp),TNHAV(iTp),TSHAV(iTp), &TLAND(iTp),TOCEAN(iTp),TOCN(40),TOCNPREV(40),IEXPAN, &SIP,SGP,SAP,SLI(iTp),SLG(iTp),SLA(iTp),EX(0:iTp),SLT(iTp), &QTOT(0:iTp),QGH(0:iTp),QOZ(0:iTp),QBIO(0:iTp), &QSO2(0:iTp+1),QDIR(0:iTp+1) C COMMON/CAR/EL1,EL2,EL3,TINV0(5),TINV(4,5),A(3,5),AA(4,5), &BCO2(4),BTGPP,BTRESP,BTHUM,GAMP,GPP0,RESP0,QA0,U0,C0,B340(4), &PHI,RG,TAUP,TAUH,TAUS,THP,THS,THH0,THS0,THPL,G1,G2,G3,FACTOR, &EL21,EL32,XX1,XX2,XX3,XX4,XX5,XX6,DEE1,DEE2,DEE3,DEE4,DEE5,DEE6, &FL1,FL2,FL3,XL,GAMH,GAMS,QS0,BTSOIL,FERTTYPE,TOTEM,CONVTERP, &R(4),CPART(4,5),DELMASS(4,226:iTp),ABFRAC(4,226:iTp) C common /meth/emeth(226:iTp),imeth,ch4l(225:iTp),ch4b(225:iTp), +ch4h(225:iTp),ef4(226:iTp) c common /radforc/qco2(0:iTp),qm(0:iTp),qn(0:iTp),qcfc(0:iTp) COMMON /QOZONE/QCH4O3(0:iTp) c common /StratH2O/StratH2O c common /TauMeth/ITAUMETH,TAU90CH4,TauSoil,DELTAU, + TAUINIT,ch4bar90,eno90,eco90,evo90 COMMON /TCH4/TCH4(iTp) COMMON /CH4HIST/METHHIST common /powc/powc0,delpowc c common /TauNitr/TAUN2O c common /O3feedback/iO3feed common /Sulph/S90DIR,S90IND,S90BIO,S90OZ,enat,es1990, &dqdcoz,QCH4OZ COMMON /IGHG/IGHG COMMON /CO2READ/ICO2READ,XC(226:iTp),CO2SCALE COMMON /COLDETC/ICOMP,COMPRATE,qtot86 COMMON /QCON/IQCONST,QCONST,RAMPDQDT COMMON /DSENS/IXLAM,XLAML,XLAMO common /netdef/ednet(226:iTp),DUSER,FUSER COMMON /VARW/Z(40),W(2),DW(2),TO0(2),TP0(2),WNH(iTp),WSH(iTp), &TW0NH,TW0SH,IVARW COMMON /QSPLIT/QNHO,QNHL,QSHO,QSHL,QGLOBE(0:iTp), &QQNHO(0:iTp),QQNHL(0:iTp),QQSHO(0:iTp),QQSHL(0:iTp), &QQQNHO(0:iTp),QQQNHL(0:iTp),QQQSHO(0:iTp),QQQSHL(0:iTp) C COMMON /ICE/TAUI,DTSTAR,DTEND,BETAG,BETA1,BETA2,DB3 COMMON /ICEPARA/ZI0,NVALUES,MANYTAU,TAUFACT,ZI0BIT(100) COMMON /ICEINIT/SIPBIT(100),SIBIT(100) COMMON /AREAS/FNO,FNL,FSO,FSL COMMON /TEMEXP/TEMEXP(2,40) C COMMON /QADD/IQREAD,JQFIRST,JQLAST,QEX(0:iTp),QEXNH(0:iTp), &QEXSH(0:iTp),QEXNHO(0:iTp),QEXNHL(0:iTp),QEXSHO(0:iTp), &QEXSHL(0:iTp) C COMMON /OLDTZ/IOLDTZ COMMON /NSIM/NSIM,NCLIM,ISCENGEN COMMON /CH4CORR/CORRUSER,CORRMHI,CORRMMID,CORRMLO C C ******************************************************************** C character*20 mnem character*3 month(12) data (month(i),i=1,12) /'Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun', + 'Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec'/ C C ******************************************************************** C C READ CO2 CONCENTRATION HISTORY C lun = 42 ! spare logical unit no. open(unit=lun,file='co2hist.IN',status='OLD') DO ICO2=0,226 READ(LUN,4444)COBS(ICO2) END DO CLOSE(lun) C C ******************************************************************** C C READ PARAMETERS FROM MAGUSER.CFG C lun = 42 ! spare logical unit no. open(unit=lun,file='maguser.cfg',status='OLD') READ(LUN,4240) ISCENGEN READ(LUN,4240) IUSERGAS READ(LUN,4241) DT2XUSER READ(LUN,4241) RLO READ(LUN,4241) HM READ(LUN,4241) YK READ(LUN,4241) W0 READ(LUN,4241) PI READ(LUN,4240) IVARW READ(LUN,4241) TW0NH READ(LUN,4241) TW0SH READ(LUN,4240) NVALUES READ(LUN,4241) ZI0IN READ(LUN,4241) TAUIN READ(LUN,4241) DTSTARIN READ(LUN,4241) DTENDIN READ(LUN,4241) BETAGIN READ(LUN,4241) BETA1IN READ(LUN,4241) BETA2IN READ(LUN,4241) DB3IN READ(LUN,4240) KYRREF READ(LUN,4240) IY0 READ(LUN,4240) LASTYEAR READ(LUN,4240) ITEMPRT READ(LUN,4240) ITAUMETH READ(LUN,4241) TAU90CH4 READ(LUN,4241) TAUINIT READ(LUN,4241) DELTAU READ(LUN,4240) IMETH READ(LUN,4240) IO3FEED READ(LUN,4241) S90DIR READ(LUN,4241) S90IND READ(LUN,4241) S90BIO READ(LUN,4240) IQREAD READ(LUN,4241) QOFFSET READ(LUN,4241) QFACTOR READ(LUN,4241) DUSER READ(LUN,4241) FUSER READ(LUN,4241) TAUN2O close(lun) C C INTERIM CORRECTION TO AVOID CRASH IF S90IND SET TO ZERO IN C MAGUSER.CFG C IF(S90IND.EQ.0.0)S90IND=-0.0001 C XK=YK*3155.76 C C SELECT USER OR DEFAULT VALUES FOR GAS CYCLE PARAMETERS C IF(IUSERGAS.EQ.0)THEN ! DEFAULT ITAUMETH = 2 TAU90CH4 = 9.08 TAUINIT = 9.08 DELTAU = 0.0 IMETH = 1 IO3FEED = 1 S90DIR = -0.3 S90IND = -0.8 S90BIO = -0.2 DUSER = 1.1 FUSER = 2.0 TAUN2O = 120. ENDIF C C ************************************************************ C C READ PARAMETERS FROM MAGEXTRA.CFG C lun = 42 ! spare logical unit no. open(unit=lun,file='magextra.cfg',status='OLD') READ(LUN,4240) IOLDTZ READ(LUN,4241) DT READ(LUN,4241) CO2DELQ READ(LUN,4241) XKLO READ(LUN,4241) XKNS READ(LUN,4240) IEXPAN READ(LUN,4240) NOUT READ(LUN,4240) IEMPRT READ(LUN,4240) ICO2PRT READ(LUN,4240) ICONCPRT READ(LUN,4240) IQDECPRT READ(LUN,4240) INSLOPRT READ(LUN,4240) IQGASPRT READ(LUN,4240) IDIS READ(LUN,4241) TOFFSET READ(LUN,4241) STRATH2O READ(LUN,4241) DQDCOZ READ(LUN,4241) S90OZ READ(LUN,4241) ENAT READ(LUN,4240) IGHG READ(LUN,4240) ICO2READ READ(LUN,4241) CO2SCALE READ(LUN,4241) SO2SCALE READ(LUN,4240) ICOMP READ(LUN,4241) COMPRATE READ(LUN,4240) IQCONST READ(LUN,4241) QCONST READ(LUN,4241) RAMPDQDT READ(LUN,4241) TAUSOIL READ(LUN,4240) METHHIST close(lun) C C SPECIFICATION OF CH4 MODEL PARAMS MOVED TO HERE FOR CONVENIENCE. C POWC0 = 0.030 DELPOWC= 0.015 C C TAU FOR CH4 SOIL SINK CHANGED TO ACCORD WITH IPCC94 (160 yr). C SPECIFICATION OF TauSoil MOVED TO MAGEXTRA.CFG ON 1/10/97. C C ************************************************************ C IF(ISCENGEN.EQ.1)THEN NUMSIMS=20 ELSE NUMSIMS=4 ENDIF C C SWITCH TO PRODUCE ONLY 1 SIMULATIONS. C IF(ISCENGEN.EQ.9)NUMSIMS=1 C IXLAM=1 IF(RLO.EQ.1.0) IXLAM=0 C C ************************************************************ C IF(ICO2READ.GE.1)IMETH=0 C IF(DT.GT.1.0)DT=1.0 C QXX=CO2DELQ Q2X=QXX*ALOG(2.) C IF(IQCONST.NE.0)THEN S90DIR=0.0 S90IND=0.0 S90BIO=0.0 S90OZ =0.0 ENDIF C C ***************************************************************** C C FO(I) AND FL(I) ARE N.H. AND S.H. OCEAN AND LAND FRACTIONS. C FO(1)=1.0-FL(1) FO(2)=1.0-FL(2) C FK=RHO*SPECHT*HTCONS/31.5576 C C *************************************************************** C C TRAP TO CATCH AND OVERWRITE UNREALISTIC D80SIN C IF(DUSER.LT.-0.5)THEN DOLD=DUSER DUSER=-0.5 WRITE(8,808)DOLD,DUSER ENDIF IF(DUSER.GT.3.0)THEN DOLD=DUSER DUSER=3.0 WRITE(8,809)DOLD,DUSER ENDIF C C ************************************************************ C C READ CO2 CONCS DIRECTLY FROM CO2INPUT.DAT IF ICO2READ.GE.1 C IF(ICO2READ.GE.1)THEN lun = 42 ! spare logical unit no. open(unit=lun,file='co2input.dat',status='OLD') C C CO2INPUT.DAT MUST HAVE FIRST YEAR = 1990 AND MUST HAVE ANNUAL END C OF YEAR VALUES. FIRST LINE OF FILE GIVES LAST YEAR OF ARRAY. C READ(lun,900)LCO2 ILCO2=LCO2-1764 DO JCO2=226,ILCO2 READ(lun,902)JYEAR,XC(JCO2) END DO C C IF LAST YEAR OF INPUT CO2 DATA LESS THAN LASTYEAR FILL OUT C ARRAY WITH CONSTANT CO2 C IF(LASTYEAR.GT.LCO2)THEN DO JCO2=ILCO2+1,LASTYEAR-1764 XC(JCO2)=XC(ILCO2) END DO ENDIF close(lun) ENDIF C C ************************************************************ C C READ EXTRA FORCING IF IQREAD=1 OR 2. IF IQREAD=1, FORCING C IN QEXTRA.IN IS ADDED TO ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING. IF IQREAD=2, C QEXTRA.IN FORCING IS USED ALONE. QEXTRA.IN HAS A FLAG (NCOLS) C TO TELL WHETHER THE DATA ARE GLOBAL (ONE Q COLUMN), HEMISPHERIC C (TWO Q COLUMNS, NH THEN SH) OR FOR ALL BOXES (FOUR Q COLUMNS, C IN ORDER NHO, NHL, SHO, SHL) C IF(IQREAD.GE.1)THEN lun = 42 ! spare logical unit no. open(unit=lun,file='qextra.in',status='OLD') C READ(LUN,900)NCOLS READ(lun,901)IQFIRST,IQLAST JQFIRST=IQFIRST-1764 C C TRAP IN CASE FIRST YEAR IS BEFORE 1765 C IF(JQFIRST.LT.1)THEN DO JQ=JQFIRST,0 IF(NCOLS.EQ.1)READ(lun,902)JYEAR,QQQGL IF(NCOLS.EQ.2)READ(lun,903)JYEAR,QQQNH,QQQSH IF(NCOLS.EQ.4)READ(lun,904)JYEAR,QQQNHO,QQQNHL,QQQSHO,QQQSHL END DO JQFIRST=1 IQFIRST=1765 ENDIF C JQLAST=IQLAST-1764 DO JQ=JQFIRST,JQLAST IF(NCOLS.EQ.1)THEN READ(lun,902)JYEAR,QEX(JQ) QEXNHO(JQ)=QEX(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXNHL(JQ)=QEX(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXSHO(JQ)=QEX(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXSHL(JQ)=QEX(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXNHO(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXNHO(JQ) QEXNHL(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXNHL(JQ) QEXSHO(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXSHO(JQ) QEXSHL(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXSHL(JQ) ENDIF IF(NCOLS.EQ.2)THEN READ(lun,903)JYEAR,QEXNH(JQ),QEXSH(JQ) QEXNHO(JQ)=QEXNH(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXNHL(JQ)=QEXNH(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXSHO(JQ)=QEXSH(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXSHL(JQ)=QEXSH(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXNHO(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXNHO(JQ) QEXNHL(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXNHL(JQ) QEXSHO(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXSHO(JQ) QEXSHL(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXSHL(JQ) ENDIF IF(NCOLS.EQ.4)THEN READ(lun,904)JYEAR,QEXNHO(JQ),QEXNHL(JQ),QEXSHO(JQ), & QEXSHL(JQ) QEXNHO(JQ)=QEXNHO(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXNHL(JQ)=QEXNHL(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXSHO(JQ)=QEXSHO(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXSHL(JQ)=QEXSHL(JQ)-QOFFSET QEXNHO(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXNHO(JQ) QEXNHL(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXNHL(JQ) QEXSHO(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXSHO(JQ) QEXSHL(JQ)=QFACTOR*QEXSHL(JQ) ENDIF END DO IF(NCOLS.EQ.1.OR.NCOLS.EQ.2)THEN QEXNH(JQFIRST-1)=QEXNH(JQFIRST) QEXSH(JQFIRST-1)=QEXSH(JQFIRST) ENDIF IF(NCOLS.EQ.4)THEN QEXNHO(JQFIRST-1)=QEXNHO(JQFIRST) QEXNHL(JQFIRST-1)=QEXNHL(JQFIRST) QEXSHO(JQFIRST-1)=QEXSHO(JQFIRST) QEXSHL(JQFIRST-1)=QEXSHL(JQFIRST) ENDIF close(lun) ENDIF C C ****************************************************************** C C Read in gas emissions from GAS.EM C lun = 42 ! spare logical unit no. C open(unit=lun,file='gas.em',status='OLD') C C READ HEADER AND NUMBER OR ROWS OF EMISIONS DATA FROM GASEM.$$$ C read(lun,4243) NVAL read(lun,'(a)') mnem read(lun,*) ! skip description read(lun,*) ! skip column headings read(lun,*) ! skip units C C READ INPUT EMISSIONS DATA FROM GAS.EM C NOTE THAT, IN CONTRAST TO STAG.FOR AND EARLIER VERSIONS OF MAGICC, C THE SO2 EMISSIONS (BY REGION) MUST BE INPUT AS CHANGES FROM 1990. C C SET 1990 VALUE OF GLOBAL SO2 EMISSIONS C es1990=75.0 C do i=1,NVAL read(lun,4242) IY1(i),fos(i), def(i), DCH4(i), DN2O(i), & DSO21(i),DSO22(i),DSO23(i) C C ADJUST SO2 EMISSIONS INPUT C DSO21(I)= DSO21(I)+es1990 DSO22(I)= DSO22(I)+es1990 DSO23(I)= DSO23(I)+es1990 DSO2(I) = DSO21(I)+DSO22(I)+DSO23(I)-2.0*es1990 C end do close(lun) C C ************************************************************ C C TRAP TO CATCH INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN LASTYEAR FROM CFG FILE C AND LAST YEAR OF EMISSIONS INPUT OR MAX ARRAY SIZE C IF(ICO2READ.EQ.0)THEN IF((LASTYEAR-1764).GT.iTp)LASTYEAR=iTp+1764 IF(LASTYEAR.GT.IY1(NVAL)) LASTYEAR=IY1(NVAL) ENDIF IYEND = LASTYEAR KEND = IYEND-1764 KREF = KYRREF-1764 TEND = FLOAT(KEND-1) C C Store 1990 values of CO, VOC and NOx emissions C eco90 = 499.0 evo90 = 321.0 eno90 = 55.0 C C Offset IY1 entries from 1990 : i.e., make IY1(1)=0, C IY1(2)=IY1(2)-1990, etc. C do i=1,NVAL IY1(i) = IY1(i) - 1990 end do C C *************************************************************** C C INITIAL (1990) METHANE VALUES: EMISS (LO, MID, HI OR CON) IS THE C 'CORRECT' 1990 VALUE CALCULATED TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE C CORRESPONDING VALUE OF TAUINIT. IN GENERAL, EMISS C WILL BE INCONSISTENT WITH THE 1990 INPUT VALUE. THIS IS CORRECTED C BY OFFSETTING ALL INPUT VALUES BY THE 1990 'ERROR'. SINCE C THIS ERROR DEPENDS ON TAU, DIFFERENT OFFSETS MUST BE CALCULATED FOR C EACH 1990 TAU VALUE. C Note that C and dC/dt must be for mid 1990. VALUES CORRECTED TO C AGREE WITH IPCC SAR ON 1/10/98. HISTORY CORRECTED TOO. NOTE THAT C THE OLD C AND dC/dt VALUES DON'T QUITE AGREE WITH THE OLD CONC C HISTORY (WHICH GAVE C(MID1990)=1717 & dC/dt(MID1990)=10.83). C IF(METHHIST.EQ.0)THEN CH4BAR90 = 1711.5 DCDT90 = 11.22 ELSE CH4BAR90 = 1700. DCDT90 = 10. ENDIF C T90LO = TAUINIT-DELTAU T90MID = TAUINIT T90HI = TAUINIT+DELTAU T90CON = TAU90CH4 C IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.1)T90USER=T90LO IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.1)T90USER=T90MID IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.1)T90USER=T90HI IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.1)T90USER=T90CON C EMISSLO = 2.75*(DCDT90+CH4BAR90*(1./T90LO +1./TAUSOIL)) EMISSMID = 2.75*(DCDT90+CH4BAR90*(1./T90MID+1./TAUSOIL)) EMISSHI = 2.75*(DCDT90+CH4BAR90*(1./T90HI +1./TAUSOIL)) EMISSCON = 2.75*(DCDT90+CH4BAR90*(1./T90CON+1./TAUSOIL)) C C INITIAL (1990) N2O VALUE: FOLLOWS CH4 CASE, BUT THERE IS ONLY ONE C CORRECTION FACTOR (emissN). THIS IS CALCULATED to be consistent C with TAUN2O. Note that C and dC/dt must be for mid 1990. C N2Obar90 = 307.6 dcdt90N = 0.8 emissN = 4.81*(dcdt90N+N2Obar90/TAUN2O) C C ADD (OR SUBTRACT) CONSTANT TO ALL CH4 AND N2O EMISSIONS TO GIVE C 1990 VALUE CONSISTENT WITH LIFETIME, CONC AND DC/DT. C FOR CH4, ONLY THE CORRECTION FOR THE USER-SPECIFIED 1990 LIFETIME C IS APPLIED (GIVEN BY THE CHOICE OF ITAUMETH). C C SPECIFY USER LIFETIME. NOTE, THIS IS RESPECIFIED IN DELTAQ. C IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.1) T90USER = T90LO IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.2) T90USER = T90MID IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.3) T90USER = T90HI IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.4) T90USER = T90CON C CORRMLO = EMISSLO - DCH4(1) CORRMMID = EMISSMID - DCH4(1) CORRMHI = EMISSHI - DCH4(1) CORRMCON = EMISSCON - DCH4(1) CORRN2O = EMISSN - DN2O(1) C IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.1) CORRUSER = CORRMLO IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.2) CORRUSER = CORRMMID IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.3) CORRUSER = CORRMHI IF(ITAUMETH.EQ.4) CORRUSER = CORRMCON C do i=1,NVAL DCH4(I)=DCH4(I)+CORRUSER DN2O(I)=DN2O(I)+CORRN2O end do C C *************************************************************** C C INTERP(no-of-input-values,start-of-output,key-years,input-values,output) C INTERP(N,ISTART,IY,X,Y) C C SUBROUTINE INTERP TAKES EMISSIONS (E.G. ARRAY X=DCO2) SPECIFIED AT C KEY YEARS, WITH THE KEY YEARS IDENTIFIED RELATIVE TO 1990=0 IN C THE IY ARRAY, AND LINEARLY INTERPOLATES TO FIND ANNUAL VALUES C WHICH ARE OUTPUT TO AN ARRAY (E.G. Y=ECH4) BEGINNING WITH ISTART C AND ENDING WITH IEND. THUS X(1) AND Y(ISTART) ARE THE SAME, AS C ARE X(IY(N)) AND Y(IEND). NOTE THAT ONLY ISTART MUST BE SPECIFIED C (USUALLY AS 226, CORRESP TO 1990), SINCE IEND=ISTART+IY(N). C HERE, N IS THE SIZE OF THE IY ARRAY. C call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,fos,ef) call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,def,ednet) C call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,DCH4,ECH4) call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,DN2O,EN2O) C C NOTE, IF ESO2 WERE BEING INTERPOLATED, WOULD HAVE TO HAVE ESO2(226) C AS LAST ARGUMENT BECAUSE OF MISMATCH OF ESO2 AND Y ARRAYS IN MAIN C AND SUBROUTINE INTERP. THIS IS AVOIDED BY USING ESO2SUM. C call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,dSO2,ESO2SUM) C call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,dSO21,ESO21) call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,dSO22,ESO22) call interp(NVAL,226,IY1,dSO23,ESO23) C C SET ESO2 ARRAY C DO KE=226,KEND ESO2(KE)=ESO2SUM(KE) END DO C C **************************************************************** C CALL INIT C C **************************************************************** C DO KE=226,KEND ECO(KE) = eco90 EVOC(KE) = evo90 ENOX(KE) = eno90 END DO C C IF ICO2READ=4, TOTAL SO2 EMISSIONS ARE REPLACED BY SCALED EFOSS. C NUMSIMS MUST BE SET TO 4 SINCE SO2 EM ARE EFFECTIVELY IGNORED. C IF(ICO2READ.EQ.4)THEN NUMSIMS=4 DO IS=226,KEND ESO2SUM(IS)=ESO2SUM(226)+SO2SCALE*(EF(IS)-EF(226)) END DO ENDIF C C LINEARLY EXTRAPOLATE LAST ESO2 VALUES FOR ONE YEAR C ESO2SUM(KEND+1) = 2.*ESO2SUM(KEND)-ESO2SUM(KEND-1) ESO21(KEND+1) = 2.*ESO21(KEND)-ESO21(KEND-1) ESO22(KEND+1) = 2.*ESO22(KEND)-ESO22(KEND-1) ESO23(KEND+1) = 2.*ESO23(KEND)-ESO23(KEND-1) ESO2(KEND+1) = ESO2SUM(KEND+1) C C CALCULATE REGIONAL SO2 EMISSIONS RATIOS FOR LATER APPORTIONING C OF AEROSOL FORCING C DO KE=227,KEND+1 C IF(ESO2SUM(KE).NE.es1990)THEN QRATIO(1,KE)=(ESO21(KE)-es1990)/(ESO2SUM(KE)-es1990) QRATIO(2,KE)=(ESO22(KE)-es1990)/(ESO2SUM(KE)-es1990) QRATIO(3,KE)=(ESO23(KE)-es1990)/(ESO2SUM(KE)-es1990) ELSE QRATIO(1,KE)=0.0 QRATIO(2,KE)=0.0 QRATIO(3,KE)=0.0 ENDIF C END DO C C ************************************************************ C C OPEN MAIN OUTPUT FILE (MAG.OUT) AND QDETAILS.OUT FILE C OPEN(UNIT=8,FILE='mag.out',STATUS='UNKNOWN') OPEN(UNIT=88,FILE='qdetails.out',STATUS='UNKNOWN') C C **************************************************************** C call getdat(myr,imon,iday) write(8,87) mnem,iday,month(imon),myr write(88,87) mnem,iday,month(imon),myr 87 format(' Emissions profile: ',a20,20x,' Date: ',i2,1x,a3,1x,i4) C C ******************************************************************** C C WRITE OUT HEADER INFORMATION FOR MAG.OUT C C SCALING FACTOR FOR CO2 FORCING : C (QTOT-Q1990)=(QCO2-QCO2.1990)*CO2SCALE C SCAL=100.*(CO2SCALE-1.) IF(ICO2READ.EQ.1)WRITE(8,871)SCAL IF(ICO2READ.EQ.2)WRITE(8,872) IF(ICO2READ.EQ.3)WRITE(8,873) IF(ICO2READ.EQ.4)WRITE(8,874)SO2SCALE C IF(ICO2READ.GE.1.AND.ICOMP.EQ.1)WRITE(8,876) IF(ICOMP.EQ.1)WRITE(8,877)COMPRATE C C ************************************************************ C IF(IQREAD.EQ.0)WRITE(8,756) IF(IQREAD.GE.1)THEN IF(NCOLS.EQ.1)WRITE(8,757)IQFIRST,IQLAST IF(NCOLS.EQ.2)WRITE(8,758)IQFIRST,IQLAST IF(NCOLS.EQ.4)WRITE(8,759)IQFIRST,IQLAST IF(QOFFSET.NE.0.0)WRITE(8,760)QOFFSET IF(QFACTOR.NE.1.0)WRITE(8,761)QFACTOR ENDIF IF(IQREAD.EQ.2)WRITE(8,762) C WRITE (8,10) Q2X C WRITE (8,11) FO(1),FO(2),FL(1),FL(2) C C ************************************************************ C IF(IQREAD.EQ.0)WRITE(88,756) IF(IQREAD.GE.1)THEN IF(NCOLS.EQ.1)WRITE(88,757)IQFIRST,IQLAST IF(NCOLS.EQ.2)WRITE(88,758)IQFIRST,IQLAST IF(NCOLS.EQ.4)WRITE(88,759)IQFIRST,IQLAST IF(QOFFSET.NE.0.0)WRITE(88,760)QOFFSET IF(QFACTOR.NE.1.0)WRITE(88,761)QFACTOR ENDIF IF(IQREAD.EQ.2)WRITE(88,762) C WRITE (88,10) Q2X C C ************************************************************ C IF(S90DIR.EQ.0.0) write(8,*) 'DIRECT AEROSOL FORCING IGNORED' IF(ABS(S90DIR).GT.0.0) write(8,60)S90DIR IF(S90IND.EQ.0.0) write(8,*) 'INDIRECT AEROSOL FORCING IGNORED' IF(ABS(S90IND).GT.0.0) write(8,61)S90IND IF(S90BIO.EQ.0.0) write(8,*) 'BIOMASS AEROSOL FORCING IGNORED' IF(ABS(S90BIO).GT.0.0) write(8,62)S90BIO IF(S90OZ.EQ.0.0) write(8,*) 'TROPOSPHERIC OZONE FORCING IGNORED' IF(ABS(S90OZ).GT.0.0) write(8,63)S90OZ C if(iO3feed.eq.0) write(8,*) & 'STRAT OZONE DEPLETION FEEDBACK OMITTED' if(iO3feed.ne.0) write(8,*) & 'STRAT OZONE DEPLETION FEEDBACK INCLUDED' C write(8,53)STRATH2O C C **************************************************************** C **************************************************************** C C Run model NUMSIMS times for different values of DT2X. C The input parameter ICEOPT determines what ice melt parameter C values are used in each case. C C THE KEY FOR NSIM IS AS FOLLOWS (CASES 17-20 ADDED FEB 7, 1998) ... C NOTE : IF ISCENGEN=9, ONLY NSIM=1 IS RUN, BUT NCLIM IS SET TO 4. C C NSIM CLIM MODEL EMISSIONS NESO2 NCLIM C 1 LOW ALL 1 1 C 2 MID ALL 1 2 C 3 HIGH ALL 1 3 C 4 USER ALL 1 4 C 5 LOW ESO2 = CONST AFTER 1990 2 1 C 6 MID ESO2 = CONST AFTER 1990 2 2 C 7 HIGH ESO2 = CONST AFTER 1990 2 3 C 8 USER ESO2 = CONST AFTER 1990 2 4 C 9 LOW ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 1) 3 1 C 10 MID ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 1) 3 2 C 11 HIGH ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 1) 3 3 C 12 USER ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 1) 3 4 C 13 LOW ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 2) 4 1 C 14 MID ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 2) 4 2 C 15 HIGH ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 2) 4 3 C 16 USER ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 2) 4 4 C 17 LOW ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 3) 5 1 C 18 MID ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 3) 5 2 C 19 HIGH ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 3) 5 3 C 20 USER ESO2 = ESO2(REGION 3) 5 4 C C NOTE : NSIM=5-20 ONLY USED IF ISCENGEN=1 (I.E., USER PLANS TO C GO INTO SCENGEN AFTER MAGICC). C DO 1 NSIM=1,NUMSIMS NESO2=1+INT((NSIM-0.1)/4.0) NCLIM=NSIM C C RE-SET NCLIM FOR SULPHATE PATTERN WEIGHT CASES (NSIM.GE.5). C IF(NSIM.GE.5)NCLIM=NSIM-4 IF(NSIM.GE.9)NCLIM=NSIM-8 IF(NSIM.GE.13)NCLIM=NSIM-12 IF(NSIM.GE.17)NCLIM=NSIM-16 C C RE-SET NCLIM=4 (USER CASE) IF ONLY ONE SIMULATION (ISCENGEN=9). C IF(ISCENGEN.EQ.9)NCLIM=4 C C **************************************************************** C IF(NESO2.EQ.1)THEN DO KE=226,KEND+1 ESO2(KE)=ESO2SUM(KE) END DO ENDIF C IF(NESO2.EQ.2)THEN DO KE=226,KEND+1 ESO2(KE)=es1990 END DO ENDIF C IF(NESO2.EQ.3)THEN DO KE=226,KEND+1 ESO2(KE)=ESO21(KE) END DO ENDIF C IF(NESO2.EQ.4)THEN DO KE=226,KEND+1 ESO2(KE)=ESO22(KE) END DO ENDIF C IF(NESO2.EQ.5)THEN DO KE=226,KEND+1 ESO2(KE)=ESO23(KE) END DO ENDIF C C **************************************************************** C C SET CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND ICE MELT PARAMETERS C IF(NCLIM.EQ.1)THEN ! LOW TE = 1.5 ZI0 = 30.0 TAUI = 150.0 DTSTAR= 0.9 DTEND = 4.5 BETAG = 0.01 BETA1 = -0.045 BETA2 = 0.0 DB3 = -0.04 ENDIF C IF(NCLIM.EQ.2)THEN ! MID TE = 2.5 ZI0 = 30.0 TAUI = 100.0 DTSTAR= 0.7 DTEND = 3.0 BETAG = 0.03 BETA1 = -0.03 BETA2 = 0.01 DB3 = 0.01 ENDIF C IF(NCLIM.EQ.3)THEN ! HIGH TE = 4.5 ZI0 = 30.0 TAUI = 50.0 DTSTAR= 0.6 DTEND = 2.5 BETAG = 0.05 BETA1 = -0.015 BETA2 = 0.02 DB3 = 0.06 ENDIF C IF(NCLIM.EQ.4)THEN ! USER TE = DT2XUSER ZI0 = ZI0IN TAUI = TAUIN DTSTAR= DTSTARIN DTEND = DTENDIN BETAG = BETAGIN BETA1 = BETA1IN BETA2 = BETA2IN DB3 = DB3IN ENDIF C IF(IXLAM.EQ.1)THEN CALL LAMCALC(Q2X,FL(1),FL(2),XKLO,XKNS,TE,RLO,XLAMO,XLAML) ENDIF C XLAM=Q2X/TE C CALL INIT C WRITE (8,179) WRITE (8,176) NSIM,TE IF(NESO2.EQ.1)WRITE(8,186) IF(NESO2.EQ.2)WRITE(8,187) IF(NESO2.EQ.3)WRITE(8,188) IF(NESO2.EQ.4)WRITE(8,189) IF(NESO2.EQ.5)WRITE(8,190) IF(IVARW.EQ.0)THEN WRITE (8,122) ENDIF IF(IVARW.EQ.1)THEN WRITE (8,123) TW0NH WRITE (8,124) TW0SH ENDIF IF(IVARW.EQ.2)THEN WRITE (8,125) ENDIF C WRITE (8,12) XKNS,XKLO WRITE (8,120) HM,YK WRITE (8,121) PI,W0 C WRITE (8,910) DTSTAR,DTEND,taui,zi0 WRITE (8,912) betag WRITE (8,913) beta1,beta2,db3 IF(IXLAM.EQ.1)THEN WRITE(8,914) RLO,XLAML,XLAMO IF(XLAML.LT.0.0)WRITE(8,916) ELSE WRITE(8,915) XLAM ENDIF C C *********************************************************** C CALL RUNMOD C C *********************************************************** C C EXTRA CALL TO RUNMOD TO GET FINAL FORCING VALUES FOR K=KEND C WHEN DT=1.0 C C IF((K.EQ.KEND).AND.(DT.EQ.1.0))CALL RUNMOD C C SAVE SULPHATE AEROSOL FORCINGS IN FIRST PASS THROUGH OF NSIM C LOOP, WHEN TOTAL SO2 EMISSIONS ARE BEING USED. C IF(NSIM.EQ.1)THEN DO K=1,KEND QSO2SAVE(K)=QSO2(K) QDIRSAVE(K)=QDIR(K) END DO ENDIF C C PRINT OUT RESULTS C DT1 = TGAV(226)-TGAV(116) DMSL1 = SLT(226)-SLT(116) DTNH1 = TNHAV(226)-TNHAV(116) DTSH1 = TSHAV(226)-TSHAV(116) DTLAND = TLAND(226)-TLAND(116) DTOCEAN= TOCEAN(226)-TOCEAN(116) DTNHO = TNHO(226)-TNHO(116) DTSHO = TSHO(226)-TSHO(116) DTNHL = TNHL(226)-TNHL(116) DTSHL = TSHL(226)-TSHL(116) C WRITE (8,140) DT1,DMSL1 WRITE (8,141) DTNHL,DTNHO,DTSHL,DTSHO WRITE (8,142) DTNH1,DTSH1,DTLAND,DTOCEAN WRITE (8,15) KYRREF WRITE (8,16) C IF(IVARW.EQ.1)THEN WRITE(8,178)TE ELSE WRITE(8,177)TE ENDIF C IF(NCLIM.EQ.1)WRITE(8,161) IF(NCLIM.EQ.2)WRITE(8,162) IF(NCLIM.EQ.3)WRITE(8,163) IF(NCLIM.EQ.4)WRITE(8,164) C IF(IUSERGAS.EQ.1)THEN WRITE(8,166) ELSE WRITE(8,167) ENDIF C IF(NOUT.EQ.1)WRITE(8,171) IF(NOUT.EQ.2)WRITE(8,172) IF(NOUT.EQ.3)WRITE(8,173) IF(NOUT.EQ.4)WRITE(8,174) IF(NOUT.EQ.5)THEN WRITE(8,175) ENDIF C C PRINTOUT OPTIONS C IF(NOUT.EQ.1)THEN COL9 = TNHAV(226) COL10 = TSHAV(226) ENDIF IF(NOUT.EQ.2.OR.NOUT.EQ.5)THEN COL9 = TLAND(226) COL10 = TOCEAN(226) IF(COL10.NE.0.0)THEN COL11= COL9/COL10 ELSE COL11= 9.999 ENDIF ENDIF IF(NOUT.EQ.3.OR.NOUT.EQ.4)THEN COL9 = TEQU(226)-TGAV(226) COL10 = TDEEP(226) ENDIF C TEOUT=TEQU(226) IF(IQCONST.GE.1)TEOUT=(TE/Q2X)*QCONST C IF(NOUT.EQ.1)THEN WRITE(8,181)QGLOBE(226),TEOUT,TGAV(226),EX(226),SLI(226), & SLG(226),SLA(226),SLT(226),COL9,COL10,WNH(226),WSH(226) ENDIF IF(NOUT.EQ.2) THEN WRITE(8,182)QGLOBE(226),TEOUT,TGAV(226),EX(226),SLI(226), & SLG(226),SLA(226),SLT(226),COL9,COL10,COL11,WNH(226),WSH(226) ENDIF IF(NOUT.EQ.3)THEN WRITE(8,183)QGLOBE(226),TEOUT,TGAV(226),EX(226),SLI(226), & SLG(226),SLA(226),SLT(226),COL9,COL10,WNH(226),WSH(226) ENDIF IF(NOUT.EQ.4)THEN C C CONVERT W/M**2 TO EQUIV CO2 RELATIVE TO END-1765 CO2 CONC C EQUIVCO2=COBS(1)*EXP(QGLOBE(226)/QXX) WRITE(8,184)EQUIVCO2,TEOUT,TGAV(226),EX(226),SLI(226), & SLG(226),SLA(226),SLT(226),COL9,COL10,WNH(226),WSH(226) ENDIF IF(NOUT.EQ.5)THEN WRITE(8,185)QGLOBE(226),TGAV(226),COL11,SLT(226),EX(226), & SLI(226),SLG(226),SLA(226),WNH(226) ENDIF C C **************************************************************** C C MAIN PRINT OUT LOOP C TE1 = 0. TT1 = 0. TN1 = 0. TS1 = 0. C QR = QGLOBE(KREF) XPRT = FLOAT(ITEMPRT) NPRT = INT(225./XPRT +0.01) MPRT = NPRT*ITEMPRT KYEAR0= 1990-MPRT C TREFSUM=0.0 C DO 987 K=1,KEND KYEAR=1764+K QK = QGLOBE(K) C IF(IQCONST.EQ.0)THEN Q1 = QK-QR TEQUIL = TEQU(K) TEQUIL0= TEQU(KREF) ENDIF IF(IQCONST.EQ.1)THEN Q1 = QCONST TEQUIL = (TE/Q2X)*QCONST TEQUIL0= 0.0 ENDIF IF(IQCONST.EQ.2)THEN Q1 = RAMPDQDT*(K-1) IF(Q1.GT.QCONST)Q1=QCONST TEQUIL = (TE/Q2X)*Q1 TEQUIL0= 0.0 ENDIF C TE1 = TEQUIL-TEQUIL0 TT1 = TGAV(K)-TGAV(KREF) TN1 = TNHAV(K)-TNHAV(KREF) TS1 = TSHAV(K)-TSHAV(KREF) C C CALCULATE 1961-1990 MEAN TEMPERATURE AS REFERENCE LEVEL FOR C CALCULATION OF INPUT INTO SCENGEN DRIVER FILES. C NOTE : TREF DEPENDS ON CLIMATE MODEL PARAMS (I.E. ON NCLIM) C IF(K.GE.197.AND.K.LE.226)TREFSUM=TREFSUM+TGAV(K) IF(K.EQ.226)TREF(NCLIM)=TREFSUM/30. C C PRINTOUT OPTIONS C IF(NOUT.EQ.1)THEN COL9 = TN1 COL10 = TS1 ENDIF C IF(NOUT.EQ.2.OR.NOUT.EQ.5)THEN COL9 = TLAND(K)-TLAND(KREF) COL10 = TOCEAN(K)-TOCEAN(KREF) IF(TOCEAN(K).NE.0.0)THEN COL11= TLAND(K)/TOCEAN(K) ELSE COL11= 9.999 ENDIF ENDIF C IF(NOUT.EQ.3.OR.NOUT.EQ.4)THEN COL9 = TE1-TT1 COL10 = TDEEP(K)-TDEEP(KREF) ENDIF C EX1=EX(K) -EX(KREF) SI1=SLI(K)-SLI(KREF) SG1=SLG(K)-SLG(KREF) SA1=SLA(K)-SLA(KREF) ST1=SLT(K)-SLT(KREF) C C PUT TEMPERATURE AND SEA LEVEL RESULTS FOR FULL GLOBAL FORCING C INTO DISPLAY OUTPUT FILES C IF(ISCENGEN.NE.9)THEN IF(NSIM.EQ.1)THEN TEMLO(K) = TT1 SLLO(K) = ST1 ENDIF ENDIF C IF(NSIM.EQ.2)THEN TEMMID(K) = TT1 SLMID(K) = ST1 ENDIF C IF(NSIM.EQ.3)THEN TEMHI(K) = TT1 SLHI(K) = ST1 ENDIF C IF((ISCENGEN.EQ.9).OR.(NSIM.EQ.4))THEN TEMUSER(K)= TT1 SLUSER(K) = ST1 ENDIF C C RESULTS FOR ESO2 CONST AFTER 1990 STORED ONLY FOR MID CLIMATE CASE. C ZERO VALUES STORED IF ISCENGEN=0 OR =9 C IF(ISCENGEN.EQ.0.OR.ISCENGEN.EQ.9)THEN TEMNOSO2(K)= 0.0 SLNOSO2(K) = 0.0 ENDIF C IF(NSIM.EQ.6)THEN TEMNOSO2(K)= TT1 SLNOSO2(K) = ST1 ENDIF C C IF(NOUT.EQ.1.)THEN C WRITE (8,191) KYEAR,Q1,TE1,TT1,EX1,SI1,SG1,SA1,ST1,COL9, C & COL10,WNH(K),WSH(K),KYEAR C ENDIF C C PRINT OUT FLAG IS KKKK=1 C KKKK=0 C C ALWAYS PRINT OUT 1765, IY0 AND 1990 VALUES C IF(KYEAR.EQ.1764.OR.KYEAR.EQ.IY0.OR.KYEAR.EQ.1990)KKKK=1 C IF(KYEAR.GE.IY0)THEN PRIN=(KYEAR-KYEAR0+0.01)/XPRT BIT=PRIN-INT(PRIN) IF(PRIN.GT.0.0.AND.BIT.LT.0.02)KKKK=1 IF(KKKK.EQ.1)THEN C C ADD CONSTANT TO ALL TEMPS FOR IPCC DETEX TIME FIGURE C TT1=TT1+TOFFSET C IF(NOUT.EQ.1.)THEN WRITE (8,191) KYEAR,Q1,TE1,TT1,EX1,SI1,SG1,SA1,ST1,COL9, & COL10,WNH(K),WSH(K),KYEAR ENDIF C IF(NOUT.EQ.2)THEN WRITE (8,192) KYEAR,Q1,TE1,TT1,EX1,SI1,SG1,SA1,ST1,COL9, & COL10,COL11,WNH(K),WSH(K),KYEAR ENDIF C IF(NOUT.EQ.3)THEN WRITE (8,193) KYEAR,Q1,TE1,TT1,EX1,SI1,SG1,SA1,ST1,COL9, & COL10,WNH(K),WSH(K),KYEAR ENDIF C IF(NOUT.EQ.4)THEN EQUIVCO2=COBS(1)*EXP(QK/QXX) WRITE (8,194) KYEAR,EQUIVCO2,TE1,TT1,EX1,SI1,SG1,SA1,ST1, & COL9,COL10,WNH(K),WSH(K),KYEAR ENDIF C IF(NOUT.EQ.5)THEN WRITE(8,195) KYEAR,Q1,TT1,COL11,ST1,EX1,SI1,SG1,SA1, & WNH(K),KYEAR ENDIF C ENDIF ENDIF 987 CONTINUE C IF(NOUT.EQ.1)WRITE(8,171) IF(NOUT.EQ.2)WRITE(8,172) IF(NOUT.EQ.3)WRITE(8,173) IF(NOUT.EQ.4)WRITE(8,174) IF(NOUT.EQ.5)WRITE(8,175) WRITE(8,30) C C ************************************************************** C C DEFINE TEMPERATURE ARRAYS FOR WRITING TO SCENGEN DRIVER FILES. C ARRAY SUBSCRIPT NCLIM=1,2,3,4 CORRESPONDS TO LO, MID, HIGH C AND USER CLIMATE MODEL PARAMETER SETS. C NOTE THAT THESE ARRAYS START WITH KSG=1 IN 1990. C C TSO21,2,3 ARE THE RAW TEMPERATURES. THEY ARE INTERNALLY C INCONSISTENT BECAUSE OF THE NONLINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN C ESO2 AND INDIRECT AEROSOL FORCING. IN OTHER WORDS, IN GENERAL, C TALL MINUS TGHG WILL NOT EQUAL TSO21+TSO22+TSO23. TO CORRECT C FOR THIS, SCALE TSO2i (GIVING XSO2i) BY (TALL-TGHG)/(SUM TSO2i). C DO K=197,KEND KSG=K-196 IF(NESO2.EQ.1)THEN TALL(NCLIM,KSG)=TGAV(K)-TREF(NCLIM) ENDIF C IF(NESO2.EQ.2)THEN TGHG(NCLIM,KSG)=TGAV(K)-TREF(NCLIM) ENDIF C IF(NESO2.EQ.3)THEN TSO21(NCLIM,KSG)=TGAV(K)-TGHG(NCLIM,KSG)-TREF(NCLIM) IF(K.LT.226)TSO21(NCLIM,KSG)=0.0 ENDIF 1279. 1998-03-02 14:56:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Mar 2 14:56:38 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: brirecon103.dat to: t.osborn@uea >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 14:52:10 +0000 >From: "M.Salmon" >Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 14:51:59 GMT >To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk >Subject: brirecon103.dat > > 915 > 1073 0.62 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.41 0.37 > 1074 1.79 -9.99 0.00 0.33 0.41 0.53 > 1075 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.30 0.41 0.49 > 1076 0.89 -9.99 0.00 0.29 0.41 0.48 > 1077 0.77 -9.99 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.62 > 1078 -1.90 -9.99 0.00 0.62 0.41 0.89 > 1079 -0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.27 0.41 0.45 > 1080 -0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.41 0.28 > 1081 0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.41 0.31 > 1082 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.37 0.69 0.57 > 1083 -0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.37 0.69 0.56 > 1084 0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.22 0.69 0.39 > 1085 -0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.75 0.36 > 1086 -0.43 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.75 0.28 > 1087 -0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.75 0.29 > 1088 -0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.75 0.26 > 1089 -0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.75 0.28 > 1090 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.75 0.31 > 1091 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.75 0.30 > 1092 -0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.75 0.30 > 1093 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.75 0.35 > 1094 -0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.75 0.32 > 1095 -0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.75 0.30 > 1096 0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.75 0.28 > 1097 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.75 0.40 > 1098 0.89 -9.99 0.00 0.26 0.75 0.43 > 1099 -0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.75 0.32 > 1100 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.75 0.25 > 1101 -0.80 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.75 0.27 > 1102 0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.75 0.28 > 1103 0.72 -9.99 0.00 0.27 0.75 0.44 > 1104 -0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.28 0.75 0.45 > 1105 0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.75 0.31 > 1106 0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.75 0.34 > 1107 0.89 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.75 0.41 > 1108 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1416 -1.03 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1417 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1418 -0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1419 -0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1420 -1.11 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.28 > 1421 -0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1422 -1.06 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1423 -1.15 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.28 > 1424 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1425 -0.61 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1426 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.31 > 1427 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1428 -0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.98 0.26 > 1429 -0.61 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.24 > 1430 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.98 0.24 > 1431 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1432 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.24 > 1433 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.98 0.29 > 1434 0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.31 > 1435 -0.71 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.98 0.31 > 1436 -0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1437 -0.33 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.24 > 1438 -1.19 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1439 -0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1440 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.24 > 1441 -0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.27 > 1442 -0.92 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1443 -0.99 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1444 -0.61 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.24 > 1445 -1.59 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.32 > 1446 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.32 > 1447 -0.80 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.25 > 1448 -1.08 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.30 > 1449 -1.43 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.32 > 1450 -1.23 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.31 > 1451 -0.92 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.33 > 1452 -0.98 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1453 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.24 > 1454 -0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.25 > 1455 -0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.25 > 1456 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.27 > 1457 -1.26 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1458 -0.92 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1459 -1.17 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.28 > 1460 -1.04 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.99 0.31 > 1461 -0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.33 > 1462 -1.17 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.30 > 1463 -0.79 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.28 > 1464 -1.23 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1465 -1.32 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.30 > 1466 -1.07 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1467 -1.03 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1468 -1.50 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.99 0.31 > 1469 -0.99 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.30 > 1470 -0.66 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.25 > 1471 -0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.24 > 1472 -1.20 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.30 > 1473 -0.75 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1474 -1.41 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1475 -0.83 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.32 > 1476 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1477 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1478 -0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.25 > 1479 -1.06 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1480 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1481 -1.09 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1482 -0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.26 > 1483 -1.16 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.27 > 1484 -0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1485 -0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.24 > 1486 -0.48 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.24 > 1487 -0.61 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.24 > 1488 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.29 > 1489 -1.11 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1490 -0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1491 -1.50 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.31 > 1492 -0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.32 > 1493 -0.82 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1494 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1495 -1.49 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.32 > 1496 -1.36 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.35 > 1497 -1.37 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.33 > 1498 -1.36 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.33 > 1499 -1.18 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.31 > 1500 -1.22 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.30 > 1501 -0.82 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.27 > 1502 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1503 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1504 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1505 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1506 -0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1507 -0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1508 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1509 -0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1510 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1511 -0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1512 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1513 -0.53 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1514 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1515 -0.70 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1516 -0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.29 > 1517 -0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1518 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1519 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1520 -0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1521 -0.62 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1522 -1.26 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1523 -0.92 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.27 > 1524 -1.01 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1525 -0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.27 > 1526 -0.36 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1527 -0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1528 0.00 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1529 -0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.26 > 1530 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1531 0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1532 -0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1533 -0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1534 -0.29 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.34 > 1535 -1.18 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.30 > 1536 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.28 > 1537 -1.24 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.30 > 1538 -0.71 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.33 > 1539 -1.16 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.28 > 1540 -0.75 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.26 > 1541 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.26 > 1542 -1.46 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.29 > 1543 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.30 > 1544 -1.19 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.27 > 1545 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.28 > 1546 -0.80 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1547 -0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1548 -0.36 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1549 -0.53 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1550 -0.09 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1551 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1552 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1553 -0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.27 > 1554 -1.14 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.29 > 1555 -0.16 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1556 -0.95 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1557 -0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1558 -0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1559 -0.71 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1560 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1561 -0.70 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1562 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1563 -0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1564 -0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1565 0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.27 > 1566 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1567 -0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1568 -0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.33 > 1569 -0.68 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1570 -0.76 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1571 -1.29 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1572 -0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1573 -0.72 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1574 -0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1575 -0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1576 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1577 -0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1578 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1579 -0.87 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1580 -0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1581 -0.91 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1582 -0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.27 > 1583 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1584 -0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1585 -1.01 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1586 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1587 -1.30 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1588 -0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1589 -1.22 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.27 > 1590 -0.82 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.28 > 1591 -0.33 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1592 -0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1593 -0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1594 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1595 -0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1596 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.26 > 1597 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1598 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1599 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1600 -0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1601 -1.58 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.32 > 1602 -1.28 -9.99 0.00 0.21 1.00 0.36 > 1603 -0.87 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.27 > 1604 -0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1605 -0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.27 > 1606 -0.94 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1607 -0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1608 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1609 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1610 0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.31 > 1611 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1612 -0.88 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1613 -0.99 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1614 -0.29 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1615 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1616 -0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1617 -0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1618 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1619 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1620 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1621 -0.09 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1622 -0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1623 -0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1624 -0.95 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1625 -0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1626 -1.31 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1627 -0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.29 > 1628 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1629 -1.61 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.32 > 1630 -1.31 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.33 > 1631 -1.43 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.33 > 1632 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.28 > 1633 -0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1634 -0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1635 -0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.24 > 1636 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1637 -1.25 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.27 > 1638 -0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.28 > 1639 -0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1640 -0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1641 -1.52 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.31 > 1642 -0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.32 > 1643 -1.11 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.27 > 1644 -0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.27 > 1645 -0.07 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1646 -0.20 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1647 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.25 > 1648 -0.70 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.26 > 1649 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.24 > 1650 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.25 > 1651 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.25 > 1652 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1653 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.32 > 1654 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.27 > 1655 -1.40 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.99 0.31 > 1656 0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.30 > 1657 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.29 > 1658 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.25 > 1659 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.26 > 1660 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.29 > 1661 -0.20 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.27 > 1662 -0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.25 > 1663 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.24 > 1664 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1665 -1.39 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1666 -0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1667 -0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1668 -1.62 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.98 0.31 > 1669 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.32 > 1670 -1.21 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1671 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.28 > 1672 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.98 0.29 > 1673 0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1674 -1.94 -9.99 0.00 0.21 0.98 0.36 > 1675 -0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.21 0.98 0.36 > 1676 -0.76 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1677 -1.76 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.97 0.34 > 1678 -0.87 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.33 > 1679 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.25 > 1680 -0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.26 > 1681 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.24 > 1682 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.97 0.24 > 1683 -0.47 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.25 > 1684 0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.27 > 1685 -0.94 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.96 0.28 > 1686 -0.79 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.96 0.27 > 1687 -0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.96 0.25 > 1688 -1.37 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.95 0.30 > 1689 -0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.95 0.30 > 1690 -0.82 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.26 > 1691 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.94 0.26 > 1692 -0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.94 0.26 > 1693 -0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.94 0.27 > 1694 -0.48 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.94 0.25 > 1695 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.94 0.26 > 1696 -1.60 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.94 0.32 > 1697 -1.54 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.94 0.36 > 1698 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0.30 > 1801 -2.23 -9.99 7.76 0.23 0.99 0.39 > 1802 -0.76 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.99 0.39 > 1803 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1804 -0.95 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.28 > 1805 0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.28 > 1806 -1.83 -9.99 0.00 0.21 0.99 0.36 > 1807 -0.88 -9.99 0.00 0.21 0.99 0.36 > 1808 -0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.27 > 1809 -0.79 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1810 -1.89 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.99 0.36 > 1811 -2.46 -9.99 7.53 0.30 0.99 0.47 > 1812 -0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.99 0.40 > 1813 -2.87 -9.99 7.12 0.31 0.99 0.48 > 1814 -0.91 -9.99 0.00 0.34 0.99 0.52 > 1815 -1.53 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.31 > 1816 -0.77 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.30 > 1817 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1818 -2.20 -9.99 7.79 0.25 0.99 0.41 > 1819 -1.37 -9.99 0.00 0.28 0.99 0.44 > 1820 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1821 -1.30 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.28 > 1822 -0.90 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.30 > 1823 -1.00 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.26 > 1824 -1.09 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.99 0.31 > 1825 -1.40 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.33 > 1826 -1.55 -9.99 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0.29 0.98 0.45 > 1878 -0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1879 -0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.24 > 1880 -2.07 -9.99 7.92 0.22 0.98 0.37 > 1881 -1.36 -9.99 0.00 0.25 0.98 0.41 > 1882 -0.99 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.98 0.31 > 1883 -0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1884 -0.75 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1885 -1.07 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1886 -0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1887 -0.97 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.98 0.29 > 1888 -0.66 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1889 -0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1890 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1891 -0.22 -0.93 0.71 0.07 0.98 0.24 > 1892 -1.05 -1.65 0.60 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1893 -0.55 -1.63 1.08 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1894 -0.33 -0.72 0.39 0.14 0.98 0.29 > 1895 -1.45 -1.31 -0.14 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1896 -1.12 -1.59 0.47 0.17 0.98 0.32 > 1897 -1.05 0.01 -1.06 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1898 0.05 -0.37 0.42 0.12 0.98 0.28 > 1899 -2.29 -2.37 0.08 0.25 0.98 0.41 > 1900 -1.13 -0.77 -0.36 0.27 0.98 0.43 > 1901 -0.12 -1.65 1.53 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1902 -0.97 -1.27 0.30 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1903 -0.87 -1.10 0.23 0.12 0.98 0.28 > 1904 0.05 -0.30 0.35 0.09 0.98 0.26 > 1905 -0.21 -0.51 0.30 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1906 0.25 0.43 -0.18 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1907 -1.56 -2.13 0.57 0.17 0.98 0.33 > 1908 -0.40 -0.51 0.11 0.16 0.98 0.31 > 1909 -1.12 -1.98 0.86 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1910 -0.59 -0.75 0.16 0.13 0.98 0.28 > 1911 -1.19 -1.89 0.70 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1912 -0.87 -0.55 -0.32 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1913 -0.94 -0.74 -0.20 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1914 -0.42 -0.12 -0.30 0.09 0.98 0.26 > 1915 -0.30 0.35 -0.65 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1916 -0.58 -0.95 0.37 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1917 -0.75 -1.25 0.49 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1918 -0.85 -0.85 0.00 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1919 -0.08 -0.54 0.45 0.12 0.98 0.28 > 1920 -0.39 -1.13 0.73 0.07 0.98 0.24 > 1921 -0.52 -0.98 0.46 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1922 -0.67 -0.18 -0.49 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1923 -0.43 -0.27 -0.16 0.07 0.98 0.24 > 1924 -0.28 -0.40 0.12 0.07 0.98 0.24 > 1925 0.53 0.40 0.13 0.14 0.98 0.29 > 1926 -0.03 0.11 -0.14 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1927 -0.30 -0.85 0.55 0.07 0.98 0.24 > 1928 -0.23 -0.43 0.19 0.07 0.98 0.24 > 1929 -0.05 -0.51 0.46 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1930 -0.08 0.15 -0.23 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1931 -0.04 -0.16 0.12 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1932 -0.19 -0.16 -0.03 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1933 -0.09 -0.75 0.66 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1934 -0.40 0.66 -1.06 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1935 -0.81 -1.31 0.50 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1936 0.75 0.86 -0.11 0.16 0.98 0.32 > 1937 -0.99 -0.63 -0.36 0.19 0.98 0.34 > 1938 -0.77 0.12 -0.89 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1939 0.11 0.22 -0.11 0.17 0.98 0.33 > 1940 -0.28 0.30 -0.59 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1941 0.08 1.38 -1.30 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1942 -0.20 -0.10 -0.10 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1943 -0.96 -0.93 -0.03 0.13 0.98 0.28 > 1944 -0.79 0.01 -0.80 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1945 -0.09 -0.63 0.55 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1946 -0.19 0.09 -0.28 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1947 -0.25 0.03 -0.28 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1948 -0.18 -0.23 0.06 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1949 0.18 0.24 -0.06 0.13 0.98 0.28 > 1950 -0.20 -0.73 0.53 0.14 0.98 0.30 > 1951 -0.01 -0.75 0.74 0.17 0.98 0.32 > 1952 0.04 0.13 -0.09 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1953 -0.31 -0.63 0.32 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1954 -0.90 -2.28 1.38 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1955 -0.08 -0.99 0.90 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1956 0.65 0.66 -0.01 0.18 0.98 0.33 > 1957 -0.56 -0.23 -0.33 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1958 0.07 1.59 -1.52 0.12 0.98 0.27 > 1959 -1.42 -1.15 -0.26 0.17 0.98 0.32 > 1960 -0.06 -0.28 0.22 0.17 0.98 0.32 > 1961 -0.67 1.06 -1.73 0.11 0.98 0.26 > 1962 -0.85 -0.71 -0.14 0.15 0.98 0.30 > 1963 -0.55 -0.28 -0.28 0.13 0.98 0.29 > 1964 -1.27 -0.80 -0.47 0.13 0.98 0.29 > 1965 -0.12 0.27 -0.38 0.13 0.98 0.29 > 1966 -1.01 -0.97 -0.04 0.13 0.98 0.28 > 1967 0.12 -0.09 0.21 0.19 0.98 0.35 > 1968 -0.50 -0.86 0.36 0.18 0.98 0.33 > 1969 -0.59 0.80 -1.39 0.13 0.98 0.28 > 1970 -0.15 0.80 -0.95 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1971 0.13 0.95 -0.82 0.19 0.98 0.34 > 1972 -0.23 -0.10 -0.13 0.08 0.98 0.25 > 1973 -0.11 -0.27 0.17 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1974 -0.22 -0.26 0.04 0.09 0.98 0.25 > 1975 -0.87 -0.68 -0.19 0.10 0.98 0.26 > 1976 -0.96 -0.53 -0.43 0.18 0.98 0.33 > 1977 -0.26 -0.06 -0.20 0.14 0.98 0.29 > 1978 0.01 0.18 -0.17 0.11 0.98 0.27 > 1979 0.12 -0.06 0.18 0.10 0.98 0.27 > 1980 -0.34 0.26 -0.60 0.10 0.98 0.27 > 1981 -0.17 0.07 -0.24 0.07 0.98 0.25 > 1982 -0.14 -0.97 0.83 0.12 0.98 0.29 > 1983 0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.29 > 1984 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.41 0.29 > 1985 -1.26 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.41 0.30 > 1986 -0.48 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.41 0.28 > 1987 -0.71 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.41 0.27 > 4155. 1998-03-02 14:57:02 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Mar 2 14:57:02 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: pural.dat to: t.osborn@uea >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 14:52:32 +0000 >From: "M.Salmon" >Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 14:52:15 GMT >To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk >Subject: pural.dat > >1077 > 914 -1.26 -9.99 0.00 0.32 0.51 0.63 > 915 -2.56 -9.99 7.43 0.32 0.51 0.62 > 916 -1.45 -9.99 0.00 0.21 0.51 0.51 > 917 -2.44 -9.99 7.55 0.19 0.51 0.50 > 918 -2.05 -9.99 7.94 0.17 0.51 0.48 > 919 -0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.51 0.55 > 920 1.12 -9.99 0.00 0.26 0.51 0.57 > 921 -0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.51 0.47 > 922 0.22 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-9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.32 > 1802 0.02 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.97 0.36 > 1803 1.06 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.97 0.37 > 1804 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.97 0.38 > 1805 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.97 0.41 > 1806 -0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.28 0.98 0.51 > 1807 -0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.26 0.98 0.48 > 1808 -0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.37 > 1809 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.98 0.38 > 1810 -1.58 -9.99 0.00 0.26 0.98 0.48 > 1811 -2.82 -9.99 7.17 0.24 0.98 0.46 > 1812 -0.91 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.35 > 1813 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.98 0.36 > 1814 -1.72 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.98 0.41 > 1815 -2.59 -9.99 7.40 0.31 0.98 0.54 > 1816 -4.03 -9.99 5.96 0.32 0.98 0.55 > 1817 -2.68 -9.99 7.31 0.26 0.97 0.48 > 1818 -2.95 -9.99 7.04 0.27 0.97 0.49 > 1819 -2.45 -9.99 7.54 0.19 0.97 0.41 > 1820 -1.46 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.37 > 1821 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.33 > 1822 -0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.36 > 1823 0.77 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.97 0.37 > 1824 -0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.97 0.39 > 1825 -1.56 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.35 > 1826 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.33 > 1827 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.97 0.38 > 1828 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.97 0.40 > 1829 -0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.35 > 1830 -0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.37 > 1831 -1.51 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.98 0.40 > 1832 -1.65 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.98 0.39 > 1833 -1.75 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.98 0.42 > 1834 -2.66 -9.99 7.33 0.19 0.98 0.40 > 1835 -0.99 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.34 > 1836 -1.38 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.35 > 1837 -1.51 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.35 > 1838 -0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.36 > 1839 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.32 > 1840 -0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.99 0.37 > 1841 -0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.39 > 1842 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.34 > 1843 -0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.34 > 1844 0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.33 > 1845 -0.82 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.33 > 1846 0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.99 0.37 > 1847 -0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.38 > 1848 -0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.99 0.40 > 1849 0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.21 0.99 0.42 > 1850 -0.62 -9.99 0.00 0.22 0.99 0.43 > 1851 0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.39 > 1852 -0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.33 > 1853 -0.09 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.35 > 1854 -1.16 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.99 0.45 > 1855 -2.54 -9.99 7.45 0.28 0.99 0.50 > 1856 -0.75 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.38 > 1857 -1.38 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.36 > 1858 -0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.35 > 1859 -0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.35 > 1860 -0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.35 > 1861 0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.99 0.45 > 1862 -2.99 -9.99 7.00 0.24 1.00 0.46 > 1863 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1864 -0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.33 > 1865 -0.76 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.99 0.44 > 1866 -2.80 -9.99 7.19 0.25 0.99 0.46 > 1867 -1.27 -9.99 0.00 0.24 1.00 0.46 > 1868 0.07 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1869 1.40 -9.99 0.00 0.31 1.00 0.54 > 1870 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.29 1.00 0.52 > 1871 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.32 1.00 0.55 > 1872 -2.97 -9.99 7.02 0.32 1.00 0.55 > 1873 -0.62 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.31 > 1874 -0.07 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1875 0.47 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.37 > 1876 -0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.40 > 1877 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.22 1.00 0.43 > 1878 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.28 1.00 0.50 > 1879 -1.97 -9.99 0.00 0.25 1.00 0.47 > 1880 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.32 > 1881 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.39 > 1882 -2.41 -2.92 0.51 0.21 1.00 0.43 > 1883 -2.29 -2.07 -0.22 0.27 1.00 0.49 > 1884 -3.40 -3.27 -0.13 0.25 1.00 0.46 > 1885 -2.18 -2.71 0.53 0.18 1.00 0.39 > 1886 -1.40 -2.16 0.76 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1887 -0.05 0.72 -0.77 0.12 1.00 0.33 > 1888 -0.37 -0.01 -0.37 0.18 1.00 0.39 > 1889 -1.71 -0.57 -1.14 0.21 1.00 0.42 > 1890 -0.66 -1.68 1.01 0.27 1.00 0.48 > 1891 -3.55 -3.34 -0.21 0.24 1.00 0.45 > 1892 -0.67 1.02 -1.69 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1893 -0.57 -0.51 -0.06 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1894 -0.24 0.48 -0.72 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1895 -1.41 -1.10 -0.32 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1896 -0.42 0.72 -1.14 0.09 1.00 0.32 > 1897 0.49 1.19 -0.70 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1898 -0.30 0.54 -0.84 0.19 1.00 0.40 > 1899 -1.22 -1.46 0.25 0.13 1.00 0.35 > 1900 0.16 0.04 0.12 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1901 -0.44 -1.63 1.20 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1902 -0.54 -1.07 0.53 0.14 1.00 0.36 > 1903 -0.45 -1.00 0.56 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1904 0.80 1.09 -0.29 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1905 -0.48 -0.49 0.02 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1906 -0.33 0.67 -1.01 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1907 -0.39 0.18 -0.57 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1908 -0.14 0.07 -0.21 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1909 0.35 0.28 0.07 0.16 1.00 0.37 > 1910 0.64 0.50 0.14 0.16 1.00 0.37 > 1911 0.60 0.26 0.33 0.14 1.00 0.35 > 1912 -1.22 -1.71 0.49 0.14 1.00 0.36 > 1913 0.62 -0.36 0.98 0.14 1.00 0.36 > 1914 -0.42 -0.03 -0.39 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1915 0.85 2.66 -1.81 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1916 0.03 -1.42 1.45 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1917 -0.03 -0.84 0.81 0.18 1.00 0.39 > 1918 -2.30 -1.83 -0.47 0.22 1.00 0.43 > 1919 -0.22 -0.47 0.25 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1920 1.30 1.84 -0.54 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1921 0.95 0.28 0.67 0.14 1.00 0.35 > 1922 1.85 1.88 -0.03 0.21 1.00 0.42 > 1923 0.70 1.13 -0.42 0.24 1.00 0.45 > 1924 0.08 0.33 -0.24 0.23 1.00 0.45 > 1925 -1.58 -1.48 -0.11 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1926 -0.15 -2.40 2.25 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1927 0.98 1.27 -0.29 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1928 0.88 0.85 0.02 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1929 -1.20 -0.58 -0.62 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1930 -0.56 -0.70 0.14 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1931 0.48 1.25 -0.77 0.16 1.00 0.37 > 1932 0.99 0.98 0.01 0.22 1.00 0.44 > 1933 -1.88 -1.24 -0.64 0.17 1.00 0.39 > 1934 -0.72 -0.84 0.12 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1935 0.68 -0.09 0.78 0.13 1.00 0.34 > 1936 0.98 0.33 0.65 0.19 1.00 0.40 > 1937 0.23 -0.13 0.36 0.18 1.00 0.39 > 1938 1.04 0.85 0.18 0.25 1.00 0.46 > 1939 -0.99 -1.17 0.19 0.26 1.00 0.48 > 1940 0.53 0.67 -0.14 0.13 1.00 0.35 > 1941 -0.17 -0.74 0.58 0.16 1.00 0.37 > 1942 1.14 1.03 0.11 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1943 1.47 2.26 -0.79 0.15 1.00 0.37 > 1944 0.26 0.07 0.19 0.12 1.00 0.33 > 1945 0.63 1.47 -0.84 0.13 1.00 0.35 > 1946 -0.07 -0.91 0.84 0.20 1.00 0.41 > 1947 -2.37 -0.58 -1.80 0.18 1.00 0.40 > 1948 -0.23 1.23 -1.46 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1949 -1.34 -1.12 -0.22 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1950 0.71 0.23 0.49 0.13 1.00 0.34 > 1951 0.10 0.42 -0.31 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1952 0.78 -0.10 0.87 0.14 1.00 0.35 > 1953 1.10 1.40 -0.31 0.13 1.00 0.35 > 1954 1.11 1.25 -0.14 0.13 1.00 0.34 > 1955 1.01 0.71 0.30 0.18 1.00 0.39 > 1956 0.42 0.56 -0.13 0.21 1.00 0.42 > 1957 1.30 2.27 -0.97 0.14 1.00 0.36 > 1958 -0.81 -2.05 1.24 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1959 0.92 1.28 -0.36 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1960 0.38 -0.69 1.07 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1961 0.56 -0.34 0.90 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1962 1.03 1.40 -0.37 0.18 1.00 0.39 > 1963 0.20 0.42 -0.22 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1964 -0.24 -0.48 0.24 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1965 0.28 -0.34 0.62 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1966 -0.53 -0.54 0.01 0.14 1.00 0.35 > 1967 1.15 0.42 0.73 0.21 1.00 0.42 > 1968 -1.76 -1.86 0.10 0.17 1.00 0.38 > 1969 -1.74 -2.20 0.46 0.15 1.00 0.36 > 1970 -1.15 -1.90 0.75 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1971 -0.77 -0.94 0.17 0.11 1.00 0.33 > 1972 -0.51 -2.28 1.77 0.12 1.00 0.33 > 1973 -0.28 -0.20 -0.08 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1974 0.23 -0.48 0.71 0.21 1.00 0.42 > 1975 -2.20 -1.78 -0.42 0.21 1.00 0.42 > 1976 0.32 0.92 -0.60 0.13 1.00 0.34 > 1977 1.02 2.04 -1.02 0.24 1.00 0.46 > 1978 -1.96 -2.88 0.92 0.20 1.00 0.42 > 1979 -0.93 0.16 -1.09 0.14 1.00 0.35 > 1980 -0.96 -1.08 0.12 0.13 1.00 0.35 > 1981 0.72 0.46 0.26 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1982 0.25 0.68 -0.43 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1983 -0.15 -0.60 0.45 0.14 1.00 0.36 > 1984 0.58 0.26 0.32 0.13 1.00 0.35 > 1985 0.21 -0.60 0.81 0.14 1.00 0.35 > 1986 -0.72 -1.56 0.84 0.16 1.00 0.37 > 1987 -0.56 0.10 -0.66 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1988 0.57 0.70 -0.13 0.10 1.00 0.32 > 1989 0.64 2.26 -1.62 0.12 1.00 0.34 > 1990 1.28 1.70 -0.42 0.14 1.00 0.35 > 2555. 1998-03-02 14:58:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Mar 2 14:58:27 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: torn.dat to: t.osborn@uea >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 14:52:39 +0000 >From: "M.Salmon" >Date: Mon, 2 Mar 1998 14:52:24 GMT >To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk >Subject: torn.dat > >1481 > 500 1.24 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.81 0.31 > 501 0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.25 0.81 0.39 > 502 0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.81 0.25 > 503 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.34 > 504 -1.32 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.34 > 505 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.81 0.25 > 506 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.81 0.24 > 507 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.33 > 508 0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.81 0.31 > 509 0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.27 > 510 0.02 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.81 0.29 > 511 -1.62 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.81 0.35 > 512 -0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.81 0.28 > 513 1.00 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.27 > 514 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.81 0.29 > 515 -0.96 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.26 > 516 -0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.81 0.27 > 517 0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25 > 518 0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26 > 519 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26 > 520 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26 > 521 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.85 0.38 > 522 -0.83 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.85 0.37 > 523 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24 > 524 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.85 0.25 > 525 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24 > 526 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.25 > 527 -0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.85 0.28 > 528 0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25 > 529 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25 > 530 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26 > 531 0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24 > 532 0.33 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24 > 533 0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24 > 534 0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.85 0.24 > 535 -0.16 -9.99 0.00 0.22 0.85 0.37 > 536 -2.00 -9.99 7.99 0.22 0.85 0.37 > 537 0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.85 0.30 > 538 -1.02 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.85 0.38 > 539 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.85 0.27 > 540 -0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.85 0.30 > 541 -1.55 -9.99 0.00 0.30 0.85 0.45 > 542 0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.30 0.88 0.45 > 543 -0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.88 0.30 > 544 -1.14 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.88 0.27 > 545 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.88 0.24 > 546 -0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.06 0.88 0.23 > 547 -0.18 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.94 0.23 > 548 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.94 0.26 > 549 -1.07 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.94 0.27 > 550 -0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.94 0.30 > 551 -0.89 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.94 0.29 > 552 0.00 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.94 0.27 > 553 0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.94 0.26 > 554 -0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.94 0.24 > 555 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.94 0.25 > 556 0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.94 0.28 > 557 -0.53 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.95 0.31 > 558 0.98 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.95 0.31 > 559 0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.95 0.28 > 560 -0.88 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.95 0.26 > 561 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907 -0.66 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 908 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.06 0.97 0.22 > 909 0.20 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 910 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 911 -0.75 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 912 0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 913 -0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 914 -0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 915 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.23 > 916 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 917 -0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 918 0.07 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 919 0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 920 -0.09 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.25 > 921 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 922 0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 923 -0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 924 0.66 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.26 > 925 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.97 0.28 > 926 0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.30 > 927 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 928 0.81 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 929 0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 930 1.42 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.97 0.32 > 931 0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.97 0.32 > 932 1.00 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 933 0.96 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.97 0.29 > 934 1.57 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.31 > 935 1.10 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 936 -0.43 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 937 -0.09 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 938 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 939 0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.29 > 940 -1.12 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.30 > 941 -0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.97 0.31 > 942 -0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.97 0.28 > 943 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.23 > 944 0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 945 0.75 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 946 0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.23 > 947 0.16 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 948 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.06 0.97 0.22 > 949 -0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.23 > 950 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 951 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 952 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.97 0.22 > 953 -0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.06 0.97 0.22 > 954 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.97 0.22 > 955 -0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 956 -0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 957 0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.23 > 958 0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.98 0.24 > 959 0.72 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.25 > 960 0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.98 0.32 > 961 -1.69 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.98 0.30 > 962 0.16 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.26 > 963 0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.29 > 964 0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.25 > 965 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.23 > 966 0.29 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.25 > 967 0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.98 0.23 > 968 0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.98 0.28 > 969 1.22 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.27 > 970 0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.27 > 971 0.70 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.98 0.28 > 972 1.27 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.98 0.28 > 973 0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.98 0.27 > 974 -0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.23 > 975 0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.98 0.23 > 976 -0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.98 0.24 > 977 0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.98 0.25 > 978 0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.98 0.26 > 979 -0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.98 0.24 > 980 0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.25 > 981 0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.98 0.32 > 982 1.57 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.98 0.30 > 983 0.87 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.98 0.25 > 984 -0.18 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.98 0.23 > 985 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 986 1.35 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.29 > 987 0.72 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.28 > 988 0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.97 0.29 > 989 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.31 > 990 1.15 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 991 0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 992 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 993 0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.97 0.31 > 994 0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.22 0.97 0.36 > 995 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 996 0.48 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 997 0.70 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 998 0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.97 0.23 > 999 0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.30 > 1000 1.33 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.28 > 1001 0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 1002 0.74 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.25 > 1003 0.02 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 1004 0.61 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.23 > 1005 0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.23 > 1006 0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 1007 0.47 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 1008 -0.98 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.97 0.32 > 1009 -0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 1010 -0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.97 0.23 > 1011 0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.97 0.23 > 1012 -0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 1013 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.97 0.22 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1040 0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.94 0.25 > 1041 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.23 > 1042 0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.92 0.26 > 1043 0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.92 0.26 > 1044 0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.92 0.27 > 1045 0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.92 0.26 > 1046 0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.22 0.92 0.36 > 1047 -0.45 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.92 0.37 > 1048 1.34 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.92 0.29 > 1049 0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.92 0.27 > 1050 -0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.92 0.38 > 1051 1.99 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.92 0.34 > 1052 0.62 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.94 0.26 > 1053 -0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.94 0.24 > 1054 0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.94 0.24 > 1055 0.76 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.94 0.27 > 1056 0.95 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.94 0.29 > 1057 1.16 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.94 0.30 > 1058 1.41 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.94 0.29 > 1059 0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.94 0.29 > 1060 0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.94 0.34 > 1061 1.46 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.94 0.31 > 1062 0.91 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.94 0.29 > 1063 0.20 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.94 0.24 > 1064 0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.94 0.23 > 1065 0.61 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.94 0.27 > 1066 0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.94 0.26 > 1067 -0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.94 0.28 > 1068 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.94 0.25 > 1069 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.94 0.23 > 1070 0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.94 0.26 > 1071 0.82 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.94 0.27 > 1072 0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.94 0.25 > 1073 0.72 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.94 0.25 > 1074 0.48 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.94 0.24 > 1075 0.16 -9.99 0.00 0.06 0.94 0.23 > 1076 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.94 0.24 > 1077 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.25 > 1078 -0.47 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.95 0.26 > 1079 0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.25 > 1080 0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.25 > 1081 0.00 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.25 > 1082 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.95 0.23 > 1083 -0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.95 0.28 > 1084 0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.95 0.28 > 1085 0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.95 0.32 > 1086 1.30 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.95 0.28 > 1087 0.71 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.95 0.26 > 1088 1.23 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.95 0.30 > 1089 0.86 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.95 0.36 > 1090 1.10 -9.99 0.00 0.22 0.95 0.36 > 1091 1.76 -9.99 0.00 0.25 0.94 0.39 > 1092 1.74 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1170 -0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.96 0.23 > 1171 -0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.96 0.29 > 1172 0.95 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.96 0.30 > 1173 0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.96 0.28 > 1174 0.33 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.96 0.29 > 1175 1.03 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.96 0.27 > 1176 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.96 0.23 > 1177 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.95 0.24 > 1178 0.36 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.95 0.24 > 1179 -0.07 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.25 > 1180 0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.25 > 1181 -0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.95 0.23 > 1182 -0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.25 > 1183 0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.95 0.24 > 1184 0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.95 0.23 > 1185 0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.95 0.26 > 1186 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.95 0.24 > 1187 0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.95 0.24 > 1188 0.37 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.95 0.24 > 1189 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.95 0.23 > 1190 0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.95 0.24 > 1191 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.95 0.25 > 1192 -0.57 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.95 0.38 > 1193 1.00 -9.99 0.00 0.24 0.95 0.38 > 1194 -1.14 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.95 0.31 > 1195 0.18 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.95 0.24 > 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1403 0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 1404 0.88 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 1405 0.91 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 1406 0.82 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 1407 0.76 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 1408 0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.97 0.24 > 1409 0.62 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 1410 0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.30 > 1411 1.48 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.97 0.31 > 1412 -0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 1413 0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 1414 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 1415 0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 1416 1.20 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.97 0.33 > 1417 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.29 > 1418 0.68 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.97 0.28 > 1419 0.62 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.26 > 1420 0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 1421 0.68 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 1422 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.06 0.97 0.22 > 1423 0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.97 0.27 > 1424 1.18 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.29 > 1425 1.09 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.97 0.26 > 1426 0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.97 0.25 > 1427 0.98 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.97 0.29 > 1428 0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.97 0.24 > 1429 0.49 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-9.99 0.00 0.06 1.00 0.22 > 1715 0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1716 -0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1717 -0.36 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 > 1718 -0.72 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 > 1719 -0.96 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.27 > 1720 -1.18 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1721 -0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 > 1722 -0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1723 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.25 > 1724 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.23 > 1725 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1726 0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1727 0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29 > 1728 -1.34 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.28 > 1729 -0.48 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 > 1730 0.02 -9.99 0.00 0.06 0.99 0.22 > 1731 -0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.22 > 1732 0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.24 > 1733 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.27 > 1734 -0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.27 > 1735 0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.26 > 1736 0.83 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.25 > 1737 -0.09 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.24 > 1738 0.64 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.23 > 1739 -0.41 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.30 > 1740 -0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.27 > 1741 -0.77 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.30 > 1742 -0.63 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.24 > 1743 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.23 > 1744 -0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.23 > 1745 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.23 > 1746 -0.09 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.23 > 1747 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.24 > 1748 -0.29 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.24 > 1749 -0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.22 > 1750 -0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.23 > 1751 -0.13 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.24 > 1752 0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 > 1753 0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.24 > 1754 0.78 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.27 > 1755 1.09 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.26 > 1756 0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.28 > 1757 1.29 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.28 > 1758 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.24 > 1759 0.12 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.25 > 1760 1.23 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.31 > 1761 1.75 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.31 > 1762 0.76 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.99 0.25 > 1763 0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 > 1764 -0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.23 > 1765 0.34 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.99 0.29 > 1766 1.23 -9.99 0.00 0.17 0.99 0.30 > 1767 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.25 > 1768 -1.16 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.28 > 1769 -1.04 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.27 > 1770 0.11 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 > 1771 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.31 > 1772 -1.00 -9.99 0.00 0.21 0.99 0.35 > 1773 0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1774 0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.27 > 1775 0.77 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.29 > 1776 1.06 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.30 > 1777 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 > 1778 0.16 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.27 > 1779 0.97 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.28 > 1780 0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1781 -0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 > 1782 -0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.23 > 1783 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 > 1784 -0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 > 1785 -0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.27 > 1786 -0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.32 > 1787 -1.03 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1788 -0.20 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.26 > 1789 0.95 -9.99 0.00 0.22 0.99 0.35 > 1790 -1.12 -9.99 0.00 0.18 0.99 0.31 > 1791 0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.23 > 1792 0.00 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.24 > 1793 0.22 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.99 0.24 > 1794 0.90 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.25 > 1795 0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 > 1796 0.29 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.22 > 1797 0.24 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.25 > 1798 0.92 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.25 > 1799 0.23 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.26 > 1800 -0.69 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.99 0.27 > 1801 0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.99 0.24 > 1802 -0.95 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.27 > 1803 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.29 > 1804 0.87 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.99 0.25 > 1805 -0.42 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.99 0.27 > 1806 -0.43 -9.99 0.00 0.15 0.99 0.28 > 1807 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1808 0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1809 -0.48 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1810 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1811 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.30 > 1812 -1.67 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.30 > 1813 -0.17 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 > 1814 -0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.06 1.00 0.22 > 1815 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 > 1816 0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 > 1817 0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 > 1818 0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.32 > 1819 0.99 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1820 0.07 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.32 > 1821 -1.25 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.28 > 1822 0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.17 1.00 0.30 > 1823 0.58 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29 > 1824 -0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 > 1825 -0.26 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.32 > 1826 1.55 -9.99 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.31 > 1827 0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1828 0.96 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 > 1829 0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.23 > 1830 0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.20 1.00 0.33 > 1831 1.64 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.32 > 1832 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.23 > 1833 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1834 -0.40 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 > 1835 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.27 > 1836 -1.02 -9.99 0.00 0.21 1.00 0.35 > 1837 -1.27 -9.99 0.00 0.24 1.00 0.37 > 1838 -0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 > 1839 -0.85 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 > 1840 -0.83 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 > 1841 -0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 > 1842 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 > 1843 0.16 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 > 1844 0.94 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.27 > 1845 0.21 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.28 > 1846 0.56 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 > 1847 0.75 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 > 1848 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 > 1849 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 > 1850 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29 > 1851 0.04 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.27 1.92 0.96 -1.98 -1.24 -1.41 -0.35 > 1852 0.68 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.82 0.59 1.66 1.95 2.12 0.70 > 1853 0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 -2.23 0.24 2.27 1.64 -0.33 0.32 > 1854 1.13 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.27 0.21 1.57 0.89 2.47 2.11 1.45 > 1855 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.29 -0.74 -0.80 0.24 4.19 -0.16 0.55 > 1856 -1.41 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.33 -0.48 -1.24 -1.37 -0.34 -2.55 -1.20 > 1857 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.32 -1.13 -0.78 -1.39 -0.23 2.44 -0.22 > 1858 0.81 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.28 -0.63 0.48 1.37 2.74 2.72 1.34 > 1859 -0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 -1.28 0.73 1.04 0.10 0.16 0.15 > 1860 0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.41 -1.37 0.62 0.42 0.17 -0.11 > 1861 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.19 -2.59 1.54 2.27 0.33 0.07 > 1862 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.06 1.00 0.22 -0.06 0.50 -1.16 -2.08 -1.95 -0.95 > 1863 0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.00 -0.79 0.18 -1.72 -0.60 -0.39 > 1864 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.49 -3.34 0.26 0.74 -2.40 -1.05 > 1865 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 0.10 0.14 -2.96 1.61 -1.31 -0.48 > 1866 -0.37 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.29 -1.99 0.67 -1.17 0.67 -0.31 > 1867 -1.03 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.83 -5.37 -2.59 -0.62 -0.31 -2.34 > 1868 -0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29 -0.02 1.04 -0.36 1.72 2.78 1.03 > 1869 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 1.21 -1.14 -1.40 0.53 -0.63 -0.29 > 1870 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.33 -0.70 -0.27 1.12 -0.36 0.22 > 1871 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -2.34 -2.32 -2.34 1.12 -0.09 -1.19 > 1872 0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 0.80 0.57 1.16 1.32 -0.34 0.70 > 1873 0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 -1.97 -2.50 0.82 1.38 0.12 -0.43 > 1874 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.25 -2.24 -1.15 0.15 -1.06 -0.81 > 1875 0.36 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 -1.96 0.36 0.00 0.87 -0.33 -0.21 > 1876 0.46 -0.15 0.61 0.12 1.00 0.25 -0.70 -3.06 1.93 0.74 0.34 -0.15 > 1877 -0.98 -1.74 0.76 0.14 1.00 0.28 -3.31 -2.70 -1.18 0.26 -1.76 -1.74 > 1878 -0.04 -0.19 0.15 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.02 -0.30 0.16 -1.71 -0.12 -0.19 > 1879 0.20 -0.41 0.62 0.10 1.00 0.25 -1.24 -0.19 -1.09 -0.64 1.09 -0.41 > 1880 -1.05 0.14 -1.19 0.17 1.00 0.31 0.17 -0.53 -0.70 -0.20 1.94 0.14 > 1881 -1.34 -1.88 0.54 0.17 1.00 0.30 -3.66 -2.02 -1.35 -1.07 -1.32 -1.88 > 1882 0.30 0.37 -0.08 0.16 1.00 0.30 -0.32 0.21 -0.36 0.56 1.78 0.37 > 1883 1.13 0.24 0.89 0.13 1.00 0.26 0.49 -0.08 0.99 0.52 -0.70 0.24 > 1884 0.00 -0.80 0.80 0.14 1.00 0.27 -0.80 -1.99 -1.15 0.32 -0.39 -0.80 > 1885 -1.26 -1.25 -0.01 0.14 1.00 0.28 -0.29 -2.26 -2.34 0.42 -1.76 -1.25 > 1886 -0.24 0.10 -0.34 0.15 1.00 0.28 0.69 -0.55 -0.01 0.13 0.24 0.10 > 1887 -0.83 -0.40 -0.43 0.14 1.00 0.27 -0.10 0.23 -1.01 -0.12 -1.02 -0.40 > 1888 -0.79 -1.69 0.90 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.95 -1.85 -1.37 -1.05 -1.25 -1.69 > 1889 0.28 0.71 -0.43 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.46 2.98 2.28 -0.40 -0.84 0.71 > 1890 0.47 0.22 0.25 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.06 2.04 -0.58 -1.18 -0.26 0.22 > 1891 -0.55 -0.49 -0.06 0.16 1.00 0.30 -0.43 -0.38 -1.74 1.24 -1.12 -0.49 > 1892 -1.58 -1.46 -0.12 0.16 1.00 0.29 -0.95 -1.55 -2.20 -1.24 -1.36 -1.46 > 1893 -0.61 -0.60 -0.01 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.46 -1.17 -0.48 -0.07 -0.80 -0.60 > 1894 0.53 0.79 -0.26 0.09 1.00 0.24 2.61 0.07 0.50 1.18 -0.40 0.79 > 1895 0.68 0.38 0.30 0.09 1.00 0.24 -0.15 2.19 0.78 -0.66 -0.24 0.38 > 1896 0.06 0.47 -0.41 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.04 -0.30 1.40 2.02 -0.73 0.47 > 1897 0.71 1.01 -0.30 0.13 1.00 0.27 0.90 2.20 -0.20 1.10 1.05 1.01 > 1898 0.10 -0.61 0.71 0.12 1.00 0.25 -1.06 -0.20 -0.16 -1.03 -0.60 -0.61 > 1899 -1.36 -0.84 -0.53 0.17 1.00 0.31 -0.98 -1.95 -1.85 2.38 -1.79 -0.84 > 1900 -0.38 -0.89 0.51 0.18 1.00 0.31 -1.31 -2.02 -0.02 -1.11 -0.01 -0.89 > 1901 0.85 1.32 -0.47 0.17 1.00 0.30 0.76 0.56 1.05 3.24 1.00 1.32 > 1902 -1.59 -2.44 0.85 0.19 1.00 0.33 -2.71 -2.33 -2.44 -2.52 -2.22 -2.44 > 1903 -1.27 -0.42 -0.85 0.20 1.00 0.33 0.36 0.14 -0.37 -1.02 -1.22 -0.42 > 1904 -1.52 -1.11 -0.42 0.15 1.00 0.29 0.77 -1.61 -1.73 -1.64 -1.32 -1.11 > 1905 -0.45 -0.06 -0.39 0.08 1.00 0.23 -1.29 0.69 1.41 0.05 -1.16 -0.06 > 1906 -0.44 0.55 -0.98 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.44 1.74 0.34 0.69 -1.47 0.55 > 1907 -0.40 -1.10 0.69 0.07 1.00 0.23 0.24 -2.05 -0.31 -0.70 -2.67 -1.10 > 1908 -0.15 -0.55 0.41 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.36 -1.22 -1.31 -0.22 -0.38 -0.55 > 1909 -0.77 -1.71 0.94 0.09 1.00 0.24 -2.54 -3.21 -1.26 -0.51 -1.03 -1.71 > 1910 -0.16 0.00 -0.16 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.18 0.91 -0.19 -0.60 -1.32 0.00 > 1911 -0.38 0.02 -0.40 0.09 1.00 0.24 -0.37 1.25 -1.34 -0.55 1.12 0.02 > 1912 0.06 -0.23 0.29 0.06 1.00 0.22 -1.32 -0.99 0.16 0.79 0.20 -0.23 > 1913 0.08 0.29 -0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.68 0.02 -1.15 0.99 -0.07 0.29 > 1914 0.09 0.84 -0.75 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.51 -0.37 0.47 3.50 -0.93 0.84 > 1915 0.11 -0.91 1.01 0.06 1.00 0.22 -0.20 -1.59 -2.40 0.61 -0.95 -0.91 > 1916 -0.35 -0.51 0.16 0.13 1.00 0.26 0.46 -1.26 -1.37 1.65 -2.04 -0.51 > 1917 0.18 -0.02 0.20 0.11 1.00 0.25 -1.95 -1.60 1.89 -0.78 2.35 -0.02 > 1918 0.71 -0.39 1.10 0.10 1.00 0.24 1.11 -0.49 -1.73 0.68 -1.52 -0.39 > 1919 -0.09 0.12 -0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.88 1.29 0.09 1.87 -1.79 0.12 > 1920 0.33 0.85 -0.52 0.07 1.00 0.22 2.05 2.16 -0.36 0.93 -0.51 0.85 > 1921 0.29 0.75 -0.46 0.10 1.00 0.24 3.97 2.43 -0.68 -1.35 -0.62 0.75 > 1922 0.66 -0.23 0.89 0.12 1.00 0.26 -0.60 0.22 0.00 0.12 -0.88 -0.23 > 1923 -0.66 -1.84 1.19 0.12 1.00 0.26 -1.53 -1.74 -3.76 0.02 -2.20 -1.84 > 1924 0.49 -0.46 0.95 0.08 1.00 0.23 -1.60 -0.68 -1.93 0.64 1.25 -0.46 > 1925 0.30 1.10 -0.80 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.66 0.70 -0.63 3.49 0.30 1.10 > 1926 0.47 0.06 0.41 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.06 -0.51 0.02 0.75 0.12 0.06 > 1927 0.23 0.10 0.14 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.58 -2.17 -1.54 3.18 1.60 0.10 > 1928 -0.82 -1.21 0.39 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.42 -0.20 -3.05 -2.14 -1.09 -1.21 > 1929 0.00 -1.25 1.26 0.15 1.00 0.28 -3.24 0.57 -1.51 -1.02 -1.06 -1.25 > 1930 1.00 1.42 -0.42 0.16 1.00 0.29 1.78 1.81 0.59 1.58 1.34 1.42 > 1931 -0.67 -0.21 -0.46 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.29 1.18 -2.95 1.21 -0.20 -0.21 > 1932 -0.32 0.27 -0.59 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.54 0.03 -1.68 1.74 0.74 0.27 > 1933 0.65 0.36 0.29 0.12 1.00 0.26 -0.33 -0.86 1.64 1.77 -0.43 0.36 > 1934 0.56 0.98 -0.42 0.12 1.00 0.26 0.37 1.88 -0.48 1.88 1.27 0.98 > 1935 -0.56 -0.37 -0.20 0.09 1.00 0.24 0.30 -1.94 0.11 -0.05 -0.25 -0.37 > 1936 -0.09 1.48 -1.57 0.19 1.00 0.33 0.03 1.84 2.96 1.86 0.71 1.48 > 1937 1.77 2.39 -0.62 0.19 1.00 0.32 2.82 2.55 1.32 2.26 3.01 2.39 > 1938 0.58 0.91 -0.33 0.09 1.00 0.24 0.59 -0.07 -0.60 2.49 2.14 0.91 > 1939 0.31 0.71 -0.40 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.22 -0.15 0.04 0.99 2.88 0.71 > 1940 0.20 0.42 -0.22 0.15 1.00 0.28 -0.95 2.26 0.72 0.67 -0.60 0.42 > 1941 -0.03 -0.20 0.17 0.14 1.00 0.28 -2.00 -1.34 -1.20 3.70 -0.17 -0.20 > 1942 0.11 -0.50 0.61 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.14 -1.04 -1.47 -0.32 0.20 -0.50 > 1943 0.36 0.69 -0.33 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.55 0.88 0.99 0.69 -0.64 0.69 > 1944 0.12 -0.50 0.62 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.67 -1.25 -1.58 1.18 0.83 -0.50 > 1945 0.57 0.71 -0.14 0.10 1.00 0.25 1.21 -0.53 -0.86 1.81 1.91 0.71 > 1946 0.48 0.64 -0.16 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.17 0.28 -0.18 1.62 0.31 0.64 > 1947 0.69 1.20 -0.51 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.18 1.48 1.69 1.43 1.20 1.20 > 1948 0.00 0.67 -0.67 0.08 1.00 0.23 2.10 1.66 0.03 0.74 -1.18 0.67 > 1949 -0.21 0.11 -0.32 0.14 1.00 0.27 1.26 1.76 -1.34 -0.14 -1.01 0.11 > 1950 0.83 0.73 0.09 0.10 1.00 0.24 2.24 0.91 -0.14 -0.52 1.18 0.73 > 1951 -0.13 -0.34 0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 0.78 -1.83 -1.25 -1.23 1.84 -0.34 > 1952 -0.13 -0.38 0.25 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.78 -0.91 -1.17 -0.26 -1.34 -0.38 > 1953 0.95 1.11 -0.16 0.11 1.00 0.25 1.80 0.21 3.01 0.37 0.16 1.11 > 1954 0.12 0.32 -0.20 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.60 2.11 -0.57 0.70 -0.05 0.32 > 1955 0.02 -0.76 0.77 0.09 1.00 0.24 -2.65 -2.42 -2.22 1.42 2.09 -0.76 > 1956 -0.26 -0.94 0.68 0.07 1.00 0.22 -2.32 0.39 0.12 -0.73 -2.15 -0.94 > 1957 -0.15 -0.31 0.16 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.09 -0.53 -2.06 1.32 -0.19 -0.31 > 1958 -0.08 -0.90 0.82 0.09 1.00 0.24 -1.29 -1.07 -1.05 -0.77 -0.31 -0.90 > 1959 0.83 0.98 -0.16 0.15 1.00 0.28 1.03 0.66 0.44 1.32 1.47 0.98 > 1960 1.13 1.02 0.11 0.13 1.00 0.27 0.63 1.88 0.92 1.39 0.29 1.02 > 1961 0.05 0.17 -0.11 0.10 1.00 0.25 -0.12 0.10 1.47 0.19 -0.81 0.17 > 1962 -0.45 -1.01 0.56 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.27 -0.52 -2.15 -1.65 -2.00 -1.01 > 1963 0.11 0.79 -0.68 0.18 1.00 0.31 0.43 3.15 -0.33 -0.07 0.77 0.79 > 1964 -0.21 -0.09 -0.13 0.15 1.00 0.28 0.64 1.02 -0.78 -0.42 -0.90 -0.09 > 1965 -0.82 -0.82 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.62 -1.64 -0.03 -1.74 -1.30 -0.82 > 1966 0.07 -0.13 0.20 0.06 1.00 0.22 -2.47 0.26 1.97 0.46 -0.87 -0.13 > 1967 -0.22 0.21 -0.44 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.69 0.29 -0.80 0.13 0.75 0.21 > 1968 -0.57 0.10 -0.67 0.13 1.00 0.27 1.18 -1.20 1.37 -1.07 0.22 0.10 > 1969 0.55 0.54 0.01 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.21 -0.61 0.90 0.37 1.82 0.54 > 1970 0.37 0.40 -0.04 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.25 0.51 2.27 0.05 0.44 0.40 > 1971 -0.31 -0.12 -0.19 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.71 0.81 -0.64 0.03 -0.07 -0.12 > 1972 0.25 1.18 -0.94 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.18 0.44 1.62 3.00 0.68 1.18 > 1973 0.30 0.85 -0.55 0.10 0.99 0.25 -0.02 0.76 1.31 2.85 -0.66 0.85 > 1974 0.07 0.12 -0.05 0.11 0.99 0.25 0.86 -0.41 0.62 -0.30 -0.18 0.12 > 1975 -0.49 0.51 -1.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 0.45 1.72 -1.09 0.62 0.84 0.51 > 1976 0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.22 -0.28 1.72 -1.36 -0.23 0.05 -0.02 > 1977 -0.33 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 -1.05 -0.01 -0.50 -0.90 -0.65 -0.62 > 1978 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.96 0.23 -0.98 0.92 0.14 -0.48 -1.07 -0.29 > 1979 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.95 0.26 -0.73 0.75 1.02 -0.83 0.07 0.06 > 1980 0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.95 0.26 1.42 -0.37 1.23 1.02 -0.36 0.59 > 577. 1998-03-03 10:00:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 03 Mar 1998 10:00:15 -0700 from: Connie Woodhouse subject: Nature paper to: Keith Briffa Keith, I found your recent Nature paper on the decreasing sensitivity of tree-growth to temperature in the second half of the 20th century quite interesting. I've been working with a collection of tree-ring chronologies for the Colorado Front Range (you've probably used some of these chronologies in your analysis) and have noted something similar. Although I'm looking at ring widths, and these are more high-elevation than high latitude, I found that most of the higher elevation species (limber pine, lodgepole pine, bristlecone pine) have an inconsistent response to climate. I've been trying to put together a decent regional precipitation reconstruction, so I just deleted those chronologies from my analysis, and have been working with ponderosa pine and Douglas fir, the lower elevation species, which seem to have a stable response to climate. I know Don Graybill noted this inconsistent response with high elevation species when he worked in this area 10 years ago, and he seemed to think the change took place in the 1930s. I haven't looked very closely at these chronologies yet, but this change in response/sensitivity is something I'd like to look at, especially in light of you and your co-authors' findings which suggests a possible hemispheric-scale forcing. Thanks for a thought-provoking paper! Connie Connie Woodhouse NOAA Paleoclimatology Program National Geophysical Data Center 325 Broadway St. Boulder, CO 80303 (303)497-6297 woodhous@ngdc.noaa.gov 1928. 1998-03-05 13:11:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 5 Mar 1998 13:11:50 +0000 from: zetterberg subject: PZ Abs chron to: Keith Briffa Keith, > I will pay you transport and living costs while here. Sorry to ask again, but do you mean that you are able to cover my transport only in UK (i.e. buses etc, no flights), or the total costs from Joe-Hel-Sto-Lon-Sto-Cph-Sto-Hel-Joe? I wish we could use FTP in transporting me also! > SORRY TO GO ON - but I have received lots of files which I am trying to > translate - can you ftp me your modern series so that I can create an RCS > chronology fot the modern data . I dont know if I understood right this! Do you mean living trees? If I remember right all the modern data was sent to you after the meeting at Cambridge, I guess it was early Oct-96 when I sent you a discette containing the modern data. There is no other new modern data. > also can you email me straight away your > chronology (raw average) fot this modern (A.D.) period. You can find it below. Pentti --------------------------------------------------------------------- ABSOLUTE CHRON (year/raw mean/sample depth) -154 101 1 -153 72 1 -152 91 1 -151 100 1 -150 67 1 -149 76 1 -148 80 1 -147 82 1 -146 77 1 -145 75 1 -144 84 1 -143 60 1 -142 67 1 -141 73 1 -140 73 1 -139 45 1 -138 35 1 -137 34 1 -136 20 1 -135 76 2 -134 54 2 -133 84 2 -132 70 2 -131 75 2 -130 63 2 -129 58 2 -128 84 2 -127 83 2 -126 75 2 -125 69 2 -124 48 2 -123 36 2 -122 49 2 -121 47 2 -120 61 2 -119 73 2 -118 72 2 -117 70 2 -116 72 2 -115 77 2 -114 68 2 -113 67 2 -112 56 2 -111 53 2 -110 60 2 -109 58 2 -108 40 2 -107 60 2 -106 52 2 -105 71 3 -104 63 3 -103 57 3 -102 83 3 -101 95 3 -100 103 4 -99 101 4 -98 89 4 -97 102 4 -96 95 4 -95 110 4 -94 100 4 -93 95 4 -92 92 4 -91 89 4 -90 113 4 -89 121 4 -88 85 4 -87 86 4 -86 86 4 -85 104 4 -84 109 4 -83 110 4 -82 99 5 -81 113 5 -80 110 5 -79 90 5 -78 120 5 -77 112 5 -76 110 5 -75 93 5 -74 93 5 -73 98 5 -72 101 5 -71 75 5 -70 67 5 -69 73 5 -68 90 5 -67 100 5 -66 91 6 -65 73 6 -64 81 6 -63 78 6 -62 67 6 -61 76 6 -60 58 6 -59 56 6 -58 70 6 -57 85 6 -56 88 6 -55 90 6 -54 85 6 -53 103 6 -52 97 6 -51 87 6 -50 89 6 -49 78 6 -48 89 6 -47 75 6 -46 73 6 -45 71 7 -44 76 8 -43 47 8 -42 40 8 -41 51 8 -40 31 8 -39 40 8 -38 30 8 -37 30 8 -36 26 8 -35 31 8 -34 30 8 -33 41 8 -32 30 8 -31 42 8 -30 46 8 -29 60 8 -28 76 8 -27 83 8 -26 64 8 -25 46 8 -24 64 8 -23 58 8 -22 43 8 -21 37 8 -20 44 8 -19 50 8 -18 56 8 -17 52 8 -16 45 8 -15 29 8 -14 44 8 -13 48 8 -12 35 8 -11 48 8 -10 53 7 -9 72 7 -8 65 7 -7 71 7 -6 67 7 -5 62 7 -4 83 7 -3 75 7 -2 79 7 -1 70 7 1 70 7 2 80 7 3 77 7 4 71 7 5 58 7 6 62 8 7 81 8 8 73 8 9 39 8 10 45 8 11 44 8 12 48 8 13 42 8 14 41 8 15 39 8 16 54 8 17 50 8 18 43 8 19 53 8 20 46 8 21 49 8 22 38 8 23 51 8 24 62 8 25 57 8 26 56 8 27 66 8 28 66 8 29 56 8 30 60 8 31 62 8 32 60 8 33 70 8 34 66 8 35 65 9 36 63 9 37 71 10 38 67 10 39 61 10 40 30 10 41 57 10 42 52 10 43 64 10 44 56 10 45 53 10 46 70 11 47 60 11 48 53 11 49 71 11 50 67 11 51 56 11 52 68 12 53 71 12 54 70 13 55 74 14 56 70 14 57 81 14 58 80 13 59 94 13 60 74 13 61 77 13 62 58 13 63 67 13 64 79 13 65 82 14 66 87 13 67 67 13 68 65 12 69 72 12 70 70 13 71 77 13 72 61 13 73 75 13 74 69 13 75 69 14 76 63 14 77 70 14 78 94 14 79 103 14 80 93 15 81 102 15 82 90 14 83 79 14 84 60 14 85 43 15 86 46 15 87 51 15 88 55 15 89 58 15 90 87 16 91 79 16 92 81 16 93 75 16 94 79 16 95 78 17 96 72 18 97 66 18 98 73 18 99 78 18 100 71 18 101 55 18 102 63 18 103 81 18 104 75 18 105 58 18 106 76 18 107 81 18 108 74 18 109 72 17 110 65 17 111 55 17 112 64 17 113 59 18 114 57 18 115 79 19 116 89 19 117 76 19 118 82 19 119 77 19 120 67 19 121 64 19 122 82 20 123 73 20 124 67 20 125 75 20 126 82 20 127 67 20 128 66 20 129 54 19 130 66 19 131 67 19 132 77 19 133 60 19 134 52 19 135 46 19 136 53 19 137 53 19 138 58 18 139 71 19 140 71 19 141 68 20 142 53 20 143 63 20 144 59 21 145 54 21 146 63 20 147 66 20 148 57 20 149 53 21 150 36 22 151 48 22 152 50 22 153 47 21 154 52 20 155 47 20 156 43 20 157 47 19 158 65 18 159 68 18 160 74 18 161 79 18 162 70 18 163 66 19 164 62 19 165 52 19 166 42 19 167 51 20 168 44 20 169 56 20 170 62 20 171 59 20 172 65 20 173 67 20 174 64 20 175 56 20 176 53 20 177 60 20 178 74 20 179 72 20 180 76 21 181 79 21 182 87 20 183 79 19 184 53 19 185 65 18 186 51 19 187 43 19 188 60 19 189 64 19 190 66 19 191 77 19 192 80 18 193 75 17 194 66 19 195 65 20 196 70 20 197 59 20 198 55 20 199 53 20 200 62 20 201 71 20 202 69 20 203 67 20 204 77 20 205 74 21 206 81 21 207 70 22 208 68 22 209 72 22 210 85 22 211 67 22 212 85 23 213 76 23 214 67 23 215 72 23 216 78 24 217 76 24 218 55 25 219 74 25 220 69 25 221 53 26 222 60 26 223 71 27 224 61 27 225 64 27 226 84 27 227 72 27 228 65 28 229 86 28 230 61 28 231 59 28 232 63 28 233 55 28 234 58 28 235 59 28 236 42 28 237 52 28 238 59 28 239 60 28 240 59 28 241 74 28 242 82 28 243 70 28 244 68 28 245 63 28 246 62 29 247 54 29 248 67 29 249 61 30 250 49 30 251 50 29 252 60 29 253 57 29 254 48 29 255 57 29 256 61 29 257 52 30 258 48 30 259 55 30 260 45 30 261 49 30 262 58 30 263 45 30 264 40 31 265 26 30 266 45 30 267 38 30 268 27 30 269 36 30 270 30 30 271 40 29 272 45 29 273 45 28 274 39 28 275 44 28 276 40 28 277 33 28 278 23 28 279 35 28 280 45 28 281 47 28 282 48 28 283 57 28 284 69 28 285 51 27 286 56 27 287 62 27 288 57 27 289 49 27 290 46 27 291 60 27 292 59 27 293 51 27 294 56 27 295 50 27 296 47 27 297 46 27 298 57 27 299 55 26 300 41 27 301 42 27 302 39 27 303 37 27 304 25 27 305 26 27 306 30 27 307 34 27 308 33 27 309 33 27 310 34 26 311 26 26 312 36 26 313 39 26 314 31 26 315 39 26 316 37 27 317 39 27 318 41 27 319 46 27 320 45 27 321 51 27 322 46 27 323 45 27 324 53 26 325 50 25 326 50 25 327 58 25 328 59 25 329 52 25 330 67 25 331 55 25 332 52 26 333 60 27 334 55 27 335 52 27 336 38 27 337 51 27 338 72 27 339 40 27 340 39 28 341 40 28 342 41 28 343 32 29 344 41 29 345 38 29 346 44 30 347 56 30 348 60 30 349 63 30 350 54 30 351 60 30 352 46 29 353 61 29 354 67 29 355 65 29 356 49 29 357 50 29 358 58 29 359 60 29 360 55 29 361 56 29 362 47 29 363 54 28 364 45 28 365 42 28 366 47 29 367 54 29 368 51 29 369 47 28 370 55 28 371 54 28 372 36 28 373 57 28 374 65 28 375 58 28 376 60 27 377 61 29 378 67 29 379 53 29 380 56 29 381 50 29 382 51 29 383 53 29 384 59 29 385 55 29 386 47 29 387 43 28 388 54 27 389 55 26 390 71 26 391 61 26 392 64 26 393 56 26 394 53 26 395 56 26 396 57 26 397 46 26 398 58 26 399 65 26 400 74 26 401 81 26 402 71 26 403 69 26 404 85 26 405 71 27 406 98 27 407 105 26 408 97 26 409 89 25 410 87 26 411 73 26 412 70 25 413 50 25 414 55 25 415 64 25 416 51 25 417 42 25 418 50 23 419 68 23 420 57 23 421 37 23 422 55 23 423 70 23 424 65 23 425 66 23 426 61 22 427 81 22 428 78 23 429 91 23 430 96 22 431 78 22 432 72 21 433 76 21 434 72 20 435 84 19 436 59 19 437 60 19 438 59 18 439 44 18 440 53 18 441 49 18 442 64 18 443 59 18 444 62 18 445 71 18 446 67 18 447 63 17 448 68 17 449 79 16 450 71 17 451 85 17 452 66 17 453 77 17 454 58 18 455 65 18 456 60 19 457 68 19 458 70 19 459 49 19 460 48 20 461 65 20 462 53 20 463 43 20 464 41 20 465 42 20 466 43 20 467 47 20 468 46 21 469 47 21 470 54 19 471 52 19 472 55 19 473 79 18 474 67 18 475 75 18 476 80 18 477 78 18 478 69 18 479 63 18 480 69 19 481 74 19 482 100 19 483 92 19 484 78 18 485 92 18 486 102 18 487 97 18 488 86 18 489 94 18 490 88 17 491 91 17 492 82 18 493 105 18 494 98 18 495 82 18 496 111 18 497 96 18 498 103 18 499 101 17 500 91 17 501 117 17 502 103 16 503 116 16 504 102 16 505 62 15 506 71 16 507 53 16 508 69 16 509 67 16 510 91 16 511 77 16 512 86 16 513 98 15 514 90 15 515 84 14 516 85 14 517 91 14 518 81 14 519 80 14 520 62 14 521 67 13 522 33 12 523 41 13 524 53 13 525 51 13 526 48 13 527 50 13 528 61 13 529 78 13 530 84 13 531 88 13 532 77 13 533 96 13 534 105 13 535 137 13 536 45 13 537 70 13 538 68 13 539 37 13 540 51 13 541 45 12 542 17 12 543 26 12 544 26 12 545 28 12 546 27 12 547 34 13 548 39 14 549 37 14 550 28 14 551 35 14 552 30 14 553 47 14 554 38 15 555 35 16 556 50 16 557 59 16 558 62 16 559 76 16 560 58 16 561 65 16 562 68 16 563 72 16 564 50 16 565 40 16 566 42 16 567 50 16 568 50 16 569 45 16 570 45 16 571 59 16 572 62 16 573 78 15 574 54 15 575 31 16 576 41 16 577 49 16 578 49 16 579 59 16 580 60 16 581 57 16 582 53 16 583 51 16 584 61 16 585 63 16 586 86 16 587 88 15 588 92 15 589 69 15 590 74 16 591 77 17 592 63 17 593 64 18 594 74 18 595 70 18 596 69 18 597 66 18 598 54 18 599 65 18 600 77 18 601 73 17 602 86 18 603 74 18 604 96 18 605 91 18 606 83 18 607 76 18 608 62 19 609 72 19 610 64 19 611 62 19 612 60 19 613 69 19 614 57 19 615 51 19 616 66 20 617 46 20 618 32 21 619 52 21 620 50 21 621 45 21 622 52 21 623 71 21 624 61 21 625 79 21 626 58 21 627 59 21 628 37 21 629 39 21 630 46 21 631 50 21 632 51 21 633 57 21 634 58 20 635 67 20 636 73 20 637 69 20 638 76 20 639 78 20 640 56 20 641 73 20 642 58 19 643 72 20 644 74 20 645 89 20 646 72 19 647 71 19 648 49 19 649 69 19 650 51 19 651 48 19 652 56 18 653 47 18 654 73 19 655 49 19 656 66 19 657 69 18 658 60 19 659 60 17 660 47 17 661 57 17 662 49 18 663 58 18 664 60 18 665 63 18 666 78 18 667 82 18 668 62 18 669 55 19 670 59 20 671 69 20 672 56 20 673 58 20 674 64 20 675 64 21 676 61 21 677 43 21 678 52 21 679 46 21 680 39 22 681 41 23 682 51 23 683 49 23 684 54 23 685 32 23 686 60 23 687 48 23 688 47 23 689 61 23 690 52 23 691 63 23 692 45 23 693 48 23 694 57 23 695 55 22 696 53 22 697 51 21 698 51 22 699 64 22 700 50 23 701 63 23 702 61 23 703 62 25 704 56 26 705 54 27 706 52 27 707 60 27 708 69 27 709 53 27 710 40 27 711 46 27 712 30 27 713 44 27 714 50 27 715 43 27 716 45 27 717 47 27 718 44 27 719 37 27 720 39 27 721 48 27 722 52 27 723 58 27 724 59 27 725 73 27 726 63 27 727 58 26 728 49 26 729 54 26 730 54 26 731 42 26 732 46 26 733 50 26 734 52 25 735 56 25 736 34 25 737 55 25 738 50 24 739 58 25 740 63 25 741 50 24 742 59 24 743 55 24 744 36 24 745 37 23 746 49 22 747 66 22 748 53 22 749 43 22 750 44 22 751 50 22 752 42 22 753 55 22 754 64 22 755 57 22 756 49 22 757 54 22 758 45 22 759 47 22 760 41 22 761 51 22 762 35 22 763 47 22 764 51 21 765 49 21 766 41 21 767 39 21 768 56 21 769 46 21 770 46 21 771 62 21 772 52 21 773 42 21 774 37 21 775 48 21 776 39 21 777 47 21 778 56 21 779 49 22 780 52 22 781 43 22 782 43 22 783 46 21 784 54 21 785 47 22 786 50 22 787 43 22 788 44 22 789 45 21 790 50 21 791 45 21 792 54 21 793 40 22 794 39 21 795 46 21 796 35 22 797 38 21 798 38 22 799 41 22 800 28 23 801 33 23 802 33 23 803 27 23 804 18 22 805 29 22 806 28 22 807 32 21 808 39 21 809 37 21 810 36 21 811 36 21 812 30 21 813 38 21 814 39 21 815 33 21 816 37 21 817 34 21 818 30 21 819 27 21 820 37 21 821 29 20 822 29 21 823 30 21 824 21 21 825 40 21 826 41 21 827 49 22 828 47 23 829 47 21 830 49 21 831 55 21 832 56 21 833 57 20 834 56 19 835 49 22 836 53 22 837 55 22 838 49 22 839 67 22 840 58 22 841 61 22 842 70 22 843 77 22 844 73 23 845 76 23 846 67 23 847 61 22 848 51 22 849 62 22 850 69 22 851 53 21 852 50 21 853 58 21 854 62 21 855 71 21 856 61 22 857 66 22 858 47 23 859 45 23 860 50 22 861 36 22 862 36 22 863 42 21 864 34 21 865 25 21 866 38 21 867 42 22 868 42 22 869 51 22 870 54 22 871 81 22 872 84 23 873 79 23 874 85 23 875 83 24 876 87 24 877 87 26 878 78 27 879 101 27 880 101 28 881 75 28 882 76 30 883 85 30 884 88 29 885 96 29 886 77 29 887 107 29 888 86 29 889 85 29 890 88 30 891 117 29 892 96 29 893 89 30 894 98 30 895 95 31 896 83 32 897 97 31 898 74 31 899 91 31 900 66 31 901 78 33 902 64 33 903 72 34 904 77 35 905 69 37 906 75 37 907 78 36 908 81 35 909 71 35 910 64 35 911 61 35 912 80 35 913 67 36 914 68 36 915 78 36 916 79 36 917 68 35 918 63 35 919 69 35 920 75 35 921 72 34 922 78 34 923 76 34 924 73 34 925 65 34 926 59 35 927 61 34 928 81 34 929 74 34 930 72 35 931 80 35 932 88 35 933 95 36 934 105 36 935 111 36 936 100 37 937 92 38 938 77 40 939 86 40 940 76 41 941 65 41 942 81 42 943 63 44 944 56 44 945 79 44 946 82 44 947 75 44 948 71 43 949 75 42 950 58 42 951 72 42 952 48 42 953 57 42 954 53 42 955 49 43 956 35 44 957 47 44 958 42 44 959 45 44 960 41 44 961 35 43 962 40 43 963 50 43 964 49 43 965 44 42 966 51 42 967 48 42 968 48 42 969 65 42 970 73 42 971 71 42 972 78 42 973 66 42 974 67 42 975 74 42 976 50 42 977 55 42 978 53 42 979 41 42 980 52 40 981 52 40 982 59 40 983 43 40 984 39 40 985 38 40 986 49 40 987 53 40 988 41 40 989 50 39 990 59 39 991 52 37 992 58 36 993 48 36 994 73 36 995 61 36 996 59 36 997 76 36 998 77 36 999 67 36 1000 75 36 1001 72 36 1002 75 36 1003 63 36 1004 67 37 1005 78 35 1006 72 35 1007 64 37 1008 57 37 1009 51 37 1010 46 36 1011 59 36 1012 57 36 1013 53 36 1014 49 35 1015 44 35 1016 58 35 1017 49 35 1018 49 35 1019 56 35 1020 53 35 1021 53 35 1022 62 35 1023 56 36 1024 72 36 1025 82 36 1026 60 36 1027 68 36 1028 48 36 1029 56 36 1030 71 32 1031 71 32 1032 54 34 1033 57 34 1034 61 34 1035 57 33 1036 67 33 1037 67 32 1038 44 32 1039 56 32 1040 53 32 1041 47 33 1042 45 32 1043 49 32 1044 42 31 1045 32 31 1046 27 31 1047 31 31 1048 23 30 1049 25 31 1050 29 31 1051 30 31 1052 38 30 1053 28 30 1054 29 30 1055 38 29 1056 41 30 1057 44 30 1058 49 30 1059 50 30 1060 37 30 1061 55 30 1062 70 30 1063 54 31 1064 47 32 1065 52 32 1066 57 32 1067 43 32 1068 49 32 1069 53 33 1070 61 33 1071 53 33 1072 37 33 1073 41 33 1074 42 34 1075 51 34 1076 58 34 1077 47 34 1078 57 34 1079 56 34 1080 46 34 1081 54 34 1082 64 34 1083 68 34 1084 64 34 1085 72 34 1086 77 34 1087 76 34 1088 85 34 1089 105 33 1090 69 32 1091 100 31 1092 101 29 1093 79 27 1094 67 26 1095 60 26 1096 50 26 1097 68 26 1098 52 26 1099 36 25 1100 45 25 1101 49 26 1102 58 26 1103 52 26 1104 66 26 1105 78 25 1106 81 23 1107 68 22 1108 70 21 1109 75 20 1110 50 20 1111 78 20 1112 48 20 1113 56 19 1114 50 20 1115 43 19 1116 40 19 1117 40 20 1118 53 20 1119 40 20 1120 47 20 1121 55 20 1122 61 20 1123 75 20 1124 53 19 1125 40 19 1126 76 19 1127 47 18 1128 36 18 1129 51 18 1130 38 18 1131 41 18 1132 37 18 1133 35 18 1134 49 18 1135 55 18 1136 54 18 1137 46 18 1138 35 18 1139 41 18 1140 39 18 1141 43 18 1142 42 19 1143 51 19 1144 50 19 1145 60 20 1146 58 21 1147 65 21 1148 62 21 1149 66 21 1150 63 22 1151 75 22 1152 76 22 1153 64 22 1154 56 22 1155 63 23 1156 65 23 1157 75 23 1158 74 23 1159 71 24 1160 78 25 1161 77 24 1162 85 24 1163 84 23 1164 80 23 1165 89 22 1166 80 22 1167 86 23 1168 98 25 1169 90 26 1170 86 26 1171 81 26 1172 63 26 1173 82 26 1174 70 26 1175 83 26 1176 76 27 1177 76 27 1178 79 27 1179 77 28 1180 93 29 1181 79 28 1182 51 29 1183 70 29 1184 74 29 1185 63 29 1186 58 29 1187 67 28 1188 75 28 1189 58 27 1190 53 29 1191 64 29 1192 61 30 1193 60 31 1194 60 31 1195 49 31 1196 64 31 1197 51 30 1198 40 30 1199 63 30 1200 55 30 1201 37 30 1202 50 29 1203 46 29 1204 54 29 1205 47 30 1206 47 30 1207 40 30 1208 49 30 1209 50 30 1210 36 31 1211 56 31 1212 76 31 1213 62 30 1214 72 30 1215 52 30 1216 63 30 1217 82 29 1218 72 29 1219 61 29 1220 66 29 1221 85 29 1222 67 29 1223 86 27 1224 81 27 1225 81 26 1226 63 26 1227 91 26 1228 70 27 1229 44 27 1230 51 26 1231 43 25 1232 39 24 1233 45 24 1234 53 24 1235 62 24 1236 49 24 1237 63 24 1238 44 24 1239 42 24 1240 43 24 1241 53 24 1242 48 24 1243 50 23 1244 60 23 1245 65 23 1246 67 23 1247 55 23 1248 56 23 1249 64 23 1250 69 23 1251 67 23 1252 57 23 1253 86 23 1254 85 23 1255 79 22 1256 71 21 1257 83 21 1258 84 21 1259 66 21 1260 70 22 1261 61 22 1262 55 21 1263 40 21 1264 52 21 1265 58 21 1266 65 21 1267 69 20 1268 65 20 1269 80 20 1270 72 20 1271 69 20 1272 90 20 1273 77 20 1274 57 18 1275 70 17 1276 73 17 1277 61 17 1278 61 16 1279 52 16 1280 53 15 1281 58 15 1282 55 15 1283 82 15 1284 60 15 1285 79 15 1286 82 15 1287 81 14 1288 72 14 1289 63 14 1290 54 14 1291 61 12 1292 68 12 1293 68 12 1294 62 12 1295 71 12 1296 50 12 1297 44 12 1298 55 12 1299 34 12 1300 24 12 1301 47 12 1302 49 12 1303 54 13 1304 70 12 1305 74 12 1306 83 12 1307 90 11 1308 68 11 1309 70 12 1310 64 12 1311 55 11 1312 38 11 1313 31 11 1314 28 11 1315 44 11 1316 48 12 1317 42 12 1318 47 12 1319 48 13 1320 31 11 1321 51 11 4935. 1998-03-06 14:05:21 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 06 Mar 1998 14:05:21 +0100 from: Padruot Nogler subject: From Rashit Hantemirov to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, I am in Birmensdorf now and will stay here until March 20s. As far as I know Stepan Shiyatov has to translate the proposal into Russian because of this year there are two possibility to get grant. The one is just INTAS competition and other is joint INTAS-RFBR (Russian Foundation for Basic Researches) ones with the same requirements and grant amounts. For second one we have to submit russian version to RFBR. If proposal will reject by RFBR it will be automatically submit for INTAS competition. Attached file is the ring-width series of subfossil (first letter is L in series number) and living larches from Yamal, used for mean chronology developing (best or the only ones for corresponding period). Best regards, hope to see you in London next month, Rashit Hantemirov Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\AB-XVII.RWM" 3200. 1998-03-06 14:29:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 6 Mar 1998 14:29:33 +0100 from: Karen O'Brien subject: RE: Cuba expenses to: 'Mike Hulme' Daer Mike, Sorry for the delay in replying to your inquiry -- I was quite knocked out with a cold earlier this week. According to our accountant, the ?4,289.02 that she transferred to your account included the airfare, train and taxi (?1771), and the 6 days consulting fee ($3900) and 3 days per diem ($360). The exchange rates that she applied to this period were 1$ = NOK 7.32, and 1? = NOK12.384. The UNEP per diem rate for Cuba is $120.00 /day. If your actual expenses were more, you can send in the receipt and we will reimburse you for the true costs. Have a nice weekend! Regards, Karen Karen O'Brien Senior Research Fellow CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo) P.O. Box 1129 Blindern 0317 Oslo Norway Tel: 47 22 85 87 62 Fax: 47 22 85 87 51 email: karen.obrien@cicero.uio.no Internet: http://www.cicero.uio.no -----Original Message----- From: Mike Hulme [SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 1998 1:18 PM To: karenob Subject: Cuba expenses Karen, The payment for my Cuba visit has been made successfully to my account, a total of 4287.02 pounds. My travel costs were 1771 pounds, thus leaving 2516.02 pounds as my consulting rate (6 days@$650/day allows for $1.55 to the pound). The contract with you also stated however that a per diem was also to be paid at the standard UNEP rate. I spent three days in the country, but the per diem for thesee 3 days seems not to have been included in the payment. Can you check this out for me and see whether something has been omitted? Many thanks, Mike ************************************************************************ **** Dr Mike Hulme Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162 Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ Norwich NR4 7TJ ************************************************************************ **** Mean temp. in Central England during 1997 was about 1.06deg C above the 1961-90 average (the third warmest year since 1659 - after 1990 and 1949) *************************************************** The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly estimate for 1997 was about +0.43deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet on record (beating 1995) ************************************************************************ **** 1488. 1998-03-09 14:39:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 9 Mar 1998 14:39:58 +0000 from: Sari Kovats subject: short course to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk >Tony, > >I would be happy to participate in your proposed School and to give >twolectures on the themes mentioned. If you think it will help for >CRU/UEA to be a Partner feel free to use us. What else do you need? Any forms to sign? > >Please also send a draft proposal so I know the full picture. > >Your abstract was not logged in the Conference file, but I have asked >for >it to be added. You should hear something soon. > >Regards, > >Mike Dear Dr Hulme, Thanks for your agreement to participate in the EU Advanced Study course on climate change nad human health. I will send you a draft of the proposal shortly. I would be grateful if you could send me a brief (one page CV) with following headings: NAME QUALIFICATIONS PRESENT POST AND PREVIOUS APPOINTMENTS RELEVANT EXPERIENCE (including IPCC work, post grad teaching etc,) RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS (approx 8, 1992+) thanks very much Sari Kovats ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sari Kovats Research Fellow Epidemiology Unit Department of Epidemiology & Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel St London WC1E 7HT UK Tel: +44 (0)171 927 2078 Fax: +44 (0)171 580 6897 email: skovats@lshtm.ac.uk +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 700. 1998-03-20 16:52:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 20 Mar 1998 16:52:28 +0100 from: Carol Williams subject: EC polar climate research meeting to: "'domraynaud@glaciog.grenet.fr'" , "'reeh@emi.dtu.dk'" , "'Ib.Troen@dg12.cec.be'" , "'anver.ghazi@dg12.cec.be'" , "'ola.johannessen@nrsc.no'" , "'jouzel@obelix.saclay.cea.fr'" Dear colleagues, Please find attached a first draft of the discussion during this meeting. I know that I was unable to assign names to some of the comments, so you may wish to add this to your other additions and corrections. I look forward to hearing from you by 1 April please. Please let me know if you have any problems reading the attached file. Best regards, Carol EC Meeting on Polar Climate Research Copenhagen 12-13 March 1998 DISCUSSION On future challenges for the polar regions Discussion Panel : A Ghazi, J. Thiede, O. Orheim Participants : L Anderson, K Briffa, H Decleir, M Fily, T Friborg, A Hakon Hoel, J O Hagen, C Hammer, J P Hart Hansen, D Hedberg, J C Hesselbjerg, K Holmen, K Hutter, E Jansen, O Johannessen, J Jouzel, G Jugie, A Korhola, K Kristjansson, E Larsen, P Lemke, P Malkki, H Miller, J Oerlemans, V Pavlenko, S Raper, C Rapley, D Raynaud ; N Reeh, O Rogne, B Stauffer, J Taagholt, I Troen, C A Williams, M Zucchelli, Anver Ghazi outlined before the discussion that global change, climate and biodiversity received during Framework Programme 1V 350 MECU over 5 years. The Framework Programme 5 budget will be 1.04 BECU. The EC is obliged to follow the environmental policy as outlined in the Maastrict Treaty and the science results are meant to provide input to the policy makers within EC DGXI If the Environmental policy continues then it is very likely that the research on the environment will continue to be funded. The EC has funded various different areas of climate research but we should go beyond this and achieve a European dimension in the understanding of climate and the environment. 32 MECU is reserved for polar research in additon to funds within the MAST programme in FP4. There should be close interaction between the European Polar Board (EPB) and the thematic groups. In addition the EC will be setting up external advisory groups. O Johannessen asked what the position was for US and Canadian collaborators. There is a science and technology agreement between the EC and these countries and there will be the first meeting between Clinton's science advisor and Routti in June 1998 and climate research will be discussed there. Under FP5 the funding of projects outside the EC will be possible, for example, joint workshops in which US or Canadian scientists can join. A Ghazi also mentioned that there was an inter DG Cabinet meeting on 11 March to address the post-Kyoto research agenda which will be developed by DGXII in collaboration with other DGs. For example transport ministers are now interested in climate change in order to mitigate the effects upon transportation. This gives climate studies a high profile in the European Parliament. C Rapley commented that in a report of the UK Department of Environment and Transport there is no mention of scientific research. Similarly the UN advisory Board on Sustainable Development identified the impediments of climate change but again with no mention of scientific research; this is a crucial issue. The connection between science and society is still not adequately developed. P Malkki said the EU science agenda is similar to national science council agendas and was more reactive than active. The message from this meeting should be on focussing. For example in global change by combining basic research and applied developments this could lead, for example, to the development of a comprehensive model on ozone/ice. Modelling C Rapley gave an example where during IGBP pieces of the GAME project were synthesied into a world model. Similar syntheses could be done with parts of WCRP and IHDP which would be valuable. O Orheim added that if the Arctic is to be shown as being important for Europe then models should be on a smaller rather than on a global scale. C Rapley replied that there should be an overlap between research and processes. There will be some funding for monitoring in FP5 and it could be of European interest to put these three - research, processes and monitoring - together. E Augstein said that the outcome from Kyoto could be very critical. We know enough about climate to have to react, but we do not know enough especially about ocean functions and polar regions with respect to climate. We should put atmosphere, ocean, ice, glaciers and ice sheets together in models to see how the rest of the climate system reacts with the polar part. O Johanessen remarked that Augstein and he are on the ESA Advisory Committee and it was important to bring ESA closer to European Climate science. C Hammer was pessimistic that models which provide information for the global system do not fit into a regional model. Regional models need a separate approach and their own philosophy. Orheim said the challenge is to seek a scale which illustrates the European dimension and also the scale which usefully relates to societal aspects. E Augstein added that probably there will be a break through on the decadel scale but we also need the decadel to century scale, particularly for northern ocean oscillations and carbon flux models. P Lemke expanded this need into the small scale, the mesoscale and large scale. It was added that there is also a need to include more terrestrial aspects. E Larsen pointed out that it would be more useful to move away from time-slices and to think more about time-dependent models. The future Augstein said that we know enough about the risks of an anthropogenic effect upon the climate, but we do not know enough about natural climate changes ; We should encourage the EC to embark upon a CLIVAR programme lasting 15-20 years. N Reeh added that we know present ice reactions to climate but we do not know them in the past, therefore we need to study the long-term effects. We should also take a bi-polar approach and remember that tele-connections are very important aspects in climate. The interface between science and politics B Stauffer said that science could not prevent global climate change, therefore science should support sustainability, however if science can point to means of reducing the rate of global change, this would show that there was something that could be done and would evoke political decisions. J Jouzel said that the truth will come from the use of models and their validation and that there was a move in WCRP - CLIVAR to take more interest in palaeo-data. Communications between scientists and politicians are becoming more and more important and the scientific population must be large enough to be visible. D Raynaud commented that the work by Stocker in 1997 on the gross rate of emissions and the change in thermo circulation is important to conferences such as Kyoto. K Hutter added that politicians accused scientists of a high signal to noise ratio; scientists must make sure that they come up with stronger signals. The time-frame for science and politics is very different; politicians need instant information, but scientific results take a long time A Ghazi pointed out that the funding is set once the politicians want the research to be done. We need to make them understand that we do not understand the climate system. Kyoto was a compromise and the EC accepted pollution levels which were not accepted by all members. At the next meeting in Buenos Aires in November 1998 we must learn how to approach the USA. The USA wants to buy the 30% of emissions that is not achieved in Russia. This emission trading is not acceptable. However the US argues that if the EC is trading within itself then it can do so also, however the EC will be achieving an emissions reduction of 6-8 There needs to be more science representation to interact with the policy makers. Chris Rapley added that the message needs to be passed that science has the rational approach and that to look at the Earth from a policy-makers point of view raises different issues and interconnections. Biodiversity P Malkki said politicians should realise that ninety percent of the bio-variables is due to physical and chemical factors; this is so for variations in fish stocks, although cod and other pelagic species are affected by climate and this can be of great consequence to some societies. Orheim added that humans also affect the whale populations. The Biodiversity strategy paper of the EC should consider this. Hutter asked whether biodiversivity is being taken enough into account in climate change models, for example in the carbon dioxide variables. Most studies concentrated on summer data, but winter fluxes could also be significant. Shared Facilities J Thiede stated that the EC projects presented here lacked linkages between themselves and between other programmes. How can DGXII and the EPB react usefully to ipmprove this ? We need to convince politicians that the study of earth system resources is Earth system management and that Europe has unique facilities for bi-polar research. These are not used very efficiently and networking between international programmes would help this. Biffa added that the integration of Russian resources is often spoken about but there exists no mechanism for integrating fieldwork or programmes. However C Rapley pointed out that during the IGBP transects the purpose was to integrate field work. A Ghazi said that in principal FP5 will be open to Eastern European countries and funds will be made available for global change and several other projects where Russian science is involved and it looks optimistic for INTAS and other mechanisms for funding Russian scientists. Ib Troen suggested it might be worth considering a polar concerted action to discuss programmes such as CLIVAR, modelling and palaeocimate at the same time. Sweden and Finland have nine ice breakers each which cannot all be funded by science; we should look into the better use of these. We should also look into co-ordinating research aeroplanes. Ghazi mentioned that some chemistry programmes had a concerted approach to the use of planes, balloons etc. Anders Karlqvist pointed out that current arrangements for the exchange of facilities is based on an exchange of services with no money passing hands. There is a lack of mechanisms for dealing with money and we need European advice for this. The pooling of resources is interesting and it will be a challenge to get nations working together. This could be a constructive role for the EPB. Thanks J P Hart Hansen thanked Anver Ghazi and the rest of the meeting for their contributions. He reminded us that polar science is a very broad field covering the natural and also social and medical sciences and the humanities. There were many useful comments on the sharing logistics and facilities and on communications to politicians and it is clear that bi-polar science must continue. 20.3.98 3360. 1998-03-23 16:54:36 ______________________________________________________ cc: i.harris@uea date: Mon Mar 23 16:54:36 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Rubin's data to: arc7@uea.ac.uk KP21 18521981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP21 18529990 9990 245 354 177 205 260 280 328 196 KP21 1860 300 329 345 265 296 225 170 455 296 324 KP21 1870 321 516 430 409 200 410 375 408 423 489 KP21 1880 351 482 153 109 83 91 104 142 245 187 KP21 1890 315 338 576 355 462 500 269 252 172 270 KP21 1900 312 279 368 485 349 212 371 420 390 353 KP21 1910 639 489 554 319 249 334 406 626 489 350 KP21 1920 341 246 527 319 275 391 283 354 406 625 KP21 1930 324 238 308 280 325 387 415 361 235 404 KP21 1940 572 412 420 211 130 412 315 313 276 193 KP21 1950 261 247 310 485 290 357 399 314 517 287 KP21 1960 226 446 280 218 381 303 415 344 230 195 KP21 1970 193 271 187 325 208 264 275 193 287 339 KP21 1980 275 259 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP30 18541981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP30 18549990 9990 9990 9990 715 455 466 443 360 383 KP30 1860 419 500 479 379 387 349 527 579 571 608 KP30 1870 656 428 600 530 283 397 401 572 494 353 KP30 1880 359 328 261 356 377 389 306 348 419 433 KP30 1890 572 447 618 412 307 349 251 315 342 411 KP30 1900 375 376 304 309 359 261 266 252 206 142 KP30 1910 179 187 219 289 283 218 218 295 241 197 KP30 1920 197 146 227 177 159 175 220 261 204 174 KP30 1930 125 161 243 225 172 175 220 229 205 260 KP30 1940 272 278 309 192 145 190 247 287 156 125 KP30 1950 168 212 230 273 204 270 284 238 354 195 KP30 1960 179 232 181 228 350 329 310 274 253 236 KP30 1970 210 222 167 161 159 195 126 118 168 216 KP30 1980 199 120 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP18 18111981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP18 18119990 246 304 291 288 271 230 286 196 148 KP18 1820 253 240 234 321 296 288 269 329 334 428 KP18 1830 344 352 247 235 249 272 282 427 310 258 KP18 1840 183 350 295 218 257 290 348 240 240 256 KP18 1850 269 337 347 433 257 319 254 331 349 287 KP18 1860 380 350 335 256 265 378 359 438 253 332 KP18 1870 436 295 342 275 162 308 349 284 307 502 KP18 1880 268 373 202 144 100 153 189 171 227 205 KP18 1890 225 335 375 219 366 405 242 217 207 222 KP18 1900 303 226 295 333 237 216 231 196 201 199 KP18 1910 215 203 284 338 238 320 346 324 149 185 KP18 1920 171 191 374 160 202 193 234 218 145 160 KP18 1930 175 217 147 87 106 144 194 203 168 219 KP18 1940 249 267 231 180 115 298 238 255 144 99 KP18 1950 137 225 177 209 196 146 182 130 170 109 KP18 1960 183 175 186 240 201 208 214 183 211 142 KP18 1970 160 162 121 127 153 145 161 153 147 184 KP18 1980 146 154 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP05 17261981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP05 17269990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 72 114 80 84 KP05 1730 87 85 108 88 75 92 92 54 130 139 KP05 1740 89 32 49 84 110 144 153 149 125 107 KP05 1750 98 151 123 139 253 167 341 306 324 275 KP05 1760 160 168 98 230 205 150 149 124 110 121 KP05 1770 145 99 120 60 104 102 144 123 105 77 KP05 1780 157 103 150 138 126 127 94 146 182 194 KP05 1790 148 142 115 98 94 185 105 194 227 184 KP05 1800 163 162 139 108 141 246 183 198 143 124 KP05 1810 178 221 291 298 211 169 192 185 183 134 KP05 1820 158 186 190 203 194 176 158 155 178 251 KP05 1830 311 231 122 129 161 151 180 255 224 183 KP05 1840 134 218 218 167 169 244 227 129 252 251 KP05 1850 198 160 148 235 225 199 217 165 175 130 KP05 1860 164 183 165 135 149 112 189 290 165 168 KP05 1870 210 276 250 170 96 147 195 232 227 245 KP05 1880 170 147 175 189 162 147 175 141 190 171 KP05 1890 215 248 265 186 164 193 143 155 115 133 KP05 1900 173 176 184 211 172 136 116 116 165 189 KP05 1910 193 182 157 246 193 165 187 225 152 145 KP05 1920 158 119 228 196 141 157 167 187 155 190 KP05 1930 121 116 115 105 128 121 136 135 119 129 KP05 1940 197 214 220 141 101 115 109 192 159 140 KP05 1950 176 199 184 206 221 207 152 129 154 160 KP05 1960 167 168 178 199 275 267 286 229 215 137 KP05 1970 166 189 158 215 200 131 155 136 123 251 KP05 1980 186 93 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP13 17991981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP13 17999990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 302 KP13 1800 216 261 292 176 283 285 204 186 183 226 KP13 1810 235 249 273 286 196 254 199 301 239 254 KP13 1820 264 254 290 347 279 225 274 209 340 360 KP13 1830 214 307 211 205 240 196 269 319 220 283 KP13 1840 252 320 260 230 147 255 315 199 223 336 KP13 1850 212 252 206 274 169 147 172 165 188 159 KP13 1860 211 210 152 115 115 112 107 131 101 108 KP13 1870 108 109 112 126 72 106 105 170 150 191 KP13 1880 134 115 164 142 118 116 108 106 105 115 KP13 1890 122 135 158 125 150 156 106 112 101 110 KP13 1900 168 152 178 155 112 102 88 86 85 67 KP13 1910 84 85 95 100 96 117 91 115 85 71 KP13 1920 74 78 92 79 79 81 115 99 99 110 KP13 1930 73 89 91 76 78 98 92 90 112 82 KP13 1940 106 114 118 94 103 142 121 133 98 66 KP13 1950 105 126 130 126 136 124 104 88 108 99 KP13 1960 137 124 106 116 135 109 120 110 119 109 KP13 1970 119 158 155 127 114 115 95 122 159 234 KP13 1980 176 124 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP23 17391981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP23 17399990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 220 KP23 1740 126 56 49 41 42 60 83 117 134 166 KP23 1750 165 236 134 102 120 102 122 106 94 89 KP23 1760 84 82 96 168 162 143 125 155 179 111 KP23 1770 146 164 181 182 163 156 230 188 173 139 KP23 1780 215 197 268 196 232 219 269 287 150 265 KP23 1790 217 235 210 160 135 327 160 274 180 223 KP23 1800 177 152 168 157 128 166 146 182 161 139 KP23 1810 206 274 246 219 207 153 172 124 150 124 KP23 1820 151 130 153 232 223 164 207 191 216 285 KP23 1830 207 178 163 152 148 134 162 308 229 287 KP23 1840 165 261 255 205 158 227 210 162 180 205 KP23 1850 163 130 146 207 162 207 158 158 151 139 KP23 1860 213 138 152 124 234 154 145 221 153 207 KP23 1870 170 155 189 184 99 203 221 177 177 208 KP23 1880 169 164 179 234 188 150 153 148 150 178 KP23 1890 157 230 204 153 155 175 121 129 92 133 KP23 1900 151 159 176 156 176 120 119 118 134 116 KP23 1910 199 153 174 204 177 175 199 195 148 127 KP23 1920 137 85 184 115 182 216 202 201 155 164 KP23 1930 108 142 145 121 137 127 184 215 168 260 KP23 1940 205 203 188 100 92 155 228 261 152 113 KP23 1950 180 234 183 205 173 218 156 140 280 136 KP23 1960 118 112 100 115 106 109 128 144 133 164 KP23 1970 123 168 131 166 104 107 126 120 203 208 KP23 1980 166 194 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP20 18231981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP20 18239990 9990 9990 533 451 324 449 455 570 509 KP20 1830 364 361 276 310 365 334 400 446 339 382 KP20 1840 222 384 304 343 197 299 300 248 335 342 KP20 1850 290 258 211 283 207 221 262 220 260 224 KP20 1860 326 337 300 209 176 305 258 369 213 326 KP20 1870 284 279 365 256 141 273 371 434 400 442 KP20 1880 419 394 384 333 281 240 366 242 294 283 KP20 1890 207 214 262 165 233 228 168 215 150 203 KP20 1900 196 180 202 235 246 167 144 166 164 130 KP20 1910 164 137 169 201 165 151 167 237 190 157 KP20 1920 154 107 242 147 196 225 186 172 168 176 KP20 1930 149 155 173 139 147 214 183 182 178 171 KP20 1940 200 209 219 143 105 177 121 218 204 103 KP20 1950 174 212 184 244 189 168 152 184 258 146 KP20 1960 216 214 154 176 223 218 209 187 170 188 KP20 1970 152 172 144 156 119 154 118 218 170 282 KP20 1980 166 168 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP14 17591981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP14 17599990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 424 KP14 1760 374 408 327 488 439 330 298 285 166 201 KP14 1770 312 183 220 290 265 303 310 337 273 258 KP14 1780 378 403 443 295 213 350 236 355 388 282 KP14 1790 288 271 213 141 143 145 163 204 199 130 KP14 1800 93 146 120 108 232 130 150 128 106 89 KP14 1810 139 162 269 248 154 262 138 212 260 197 KP14 1820 141 105 195 164 250 186 143 166 243 284 KP14 1830 187 255 176 230 191 230 226 237 146 225 KP14 1840 141 155 164 157 144 166 237 174 129 250 KP14 1850 176 162 173 185 138 128 121 127 126 129 KP14 1860 129 117 121 70 73 57 68 102 80 93 KP14 1870 98 75 105 96 71 81 81 169 118 91 KP14 1880 95 98 111 112 102 124 115 135 132 164 KP14 1890 133 161 233 165 155 225 171 198 123 254 KP14 1900 204 186 206 164 166 134 150 143 147 93 KP14 1910 180 155 150 180 127 117 139 151 118 150 KP14 1920 152 89 165 84 94 123 104 102 90 112 KP14 1930 66 80 82 53 62 65 81 65 62 74 KP14 1940 103 119 154 89 85 134 99 135 67 47 KP14 1950 126 134 98 126 101 79 72 75 80 68 KP14 1960 70 66 80 97 114 91 111 112 90 87 KP14 1970 86 92 76 116 129 145 92 145 132 230 KP14 1980 147 170 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP12 17711981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP12 17719990 142 140 128 92 86 135 123 128 79 KP12 1780 114 101 120 107 117 113 169 161 176 165 KP12 1790 131 138 152 97 94 98 93 89 111 112 KP12 1800 108 92 135 124 129 151 146 167 155 155 KP12 1810 137 147 164 158 179 197 173 182 221 224 KP12 1820 240 237 197 219 186 158 202 217 269 256 KP12 1830 250 237 236 232 192 191 262 282 206 278 KP12 1840 202 261 239 258 187 268 211 191 203 181 KP12 1850 181 152 143 152 139 168 155 167 165 129 KP12 1860 158 177 154 114 120 189 165 167 135 172 KP12 1870 186 160 140 118 99 122 111 139 113 136 KP12 1880 115 140 137 147 123 124 138 152 157 189 KP12 1890 191 182 194 201 181 233 149 151 125 155 KP12 1900 166 153 168 158 136 117 139 154 160 127 KP12 1910 149 135 161 165 172 179 166 248 198 206 KP12 1920 183 117 180 124 138 162 169 139 139 173 KP12 1930 125 156 142 113 108 124 118 154 113 155 KP12 1940 158 149 159 105 121 185 164 243 213 138 KP12 1950 180 208 215 219 230 254 194 213 222 215 KP12 1960 269 252 149 85 84 91 90 92 92 107 KP12 1970 140 152 129 150 146 182 116 141 137 232 KP12 1980 209 177 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP02 18211981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP02 18219990 298 238 386 399 288 332 321 366 463 KP02 1830 399 373 273 310 297 235 235 357 258 342 KP02 1840 258 322 258 343 239 406 439 253 274 365 KP02 1850 363 278 302 397 273 210 239 274 243 239 KP02 1860 246 248 292 277 222 214 277 327 279 310 KP02 1870 323 330 358 282 91 168 190 375 353 397 KP02 1880 288 231 224 288 227 246 234 201 192 326 KP02 1890 302 360 428 292 350 245 215 209 170 217 KP02 1900 265 255 223 278 241 231 189 250 195 146 KP02 1910 211 244 247 307 281 208 185 271 208 198 KP02 1920 195 158 240 203 186 254 241 342 237 231 KP02 1930 169 262 312 174 140 153 182 247 113 181 KP02 1940 183 276 298 126 175 205 201 371 184 153 KP02 1950 189 202 291 240 267 291 243 222 277 211 KP02 1960 193 202 216 245 314 279 276 240 202 229 KP02 1970 233 173 172 190 163 211 154 231 230 362 KP02 1980 232 177 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP24 17691981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP24 17699990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 122 KP24 1770 115 77 70 125 56 86 184 138 108 84 KP24 1780 144 105 138 89 132 108 124 147 150 156 KP24 1790 120 91 92 70 90 144 100 162 139 106 KP24 1800 95 106 75 77 83 115 113 144 87 146 KP24 1810 119 220 194 171 141 128 125 150 111 119 KP24 1820 162 99 121 157 123 87 135 126 223 173 KP24 1830 142 107 98 123 131 116 113 166 129 186 KP24 1840 89 125 160 155 91 176 138 126 214 201 KP24 1850 135 114 143 178 140 121 132 119 197 162 KP24 1860 161 147 238 113 133 248 177 184 133 161 KP24 1870 168 136 173 145 92 190 216 142 185 198 KP24 1880 137 135 216 162 148 149 168 175 212 199 KP24 1890 208 186 231 141 215 199 149 149 179 185 KP24 1900 173 149 176 196 166 118 99 125 137 143 KP24 1910 166 125 161 197 155 145 127 157 142 112 KP24 1920 128 90 138 111 150 147 169 198 116 152 KP24 1930 148 169 170 113 96 128 165 141 119 168 KP24 1940 142 155 158 107 81 164 203 186 209 103 KP24 1950 137 164 174 178 185 189 185 178 320 174 KP24 1960 152 100 105 138 221 179 226 136 134 133 KP24 1970 118 164 125 156 111 142 105 111 163 207 KP24 1980 160 154 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP28 18651981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP28 18659990 9990 9990 9990 9990 1402 1308 956 760 751 KP28 1870 825 564 513 603 381 391 605 725 754 581 KP28 1880 491 445 359 463 407 346 370 297 299 493 KP28 1890 636 497 693 395 271 268 207 265 216 274 KP28 1900 253 332 322 315 337 323 255 192 182 176 KP28 1910 276 279 266 306 288 216 219 315 217 205 KP28 1920 275 249 269 233 174 291 334 269 254 192 KP28 1930 175 270 323 193 222 218 249 264 127 188 KP28 1940 140 127 159 72 47 67 100 133 88 86 KP28 1950 124 149 169 141 113 121 124 144 156 124 KP28 1960 115 115 119 117 201 161 130 133 142 153 KP28 1970 128 143 110 114 135 185 114 118 135 209 KP28 1980 249 197 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP03 18331981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP03 18339990 9990 9990 353 280 239 304 430 311 318 KP03 1840 292 423 407 319 345 348 306 226 181 447 KP03 1850 397 430 390 372 207 283 298 267 295 277 KP03 1860 341 415 411 213 205 195 216 391 233 370 KP03 1870 407 366 353 379 141 180 263 388 364 345 KP03 1880 282 240 143 192 176 225 164 172 174 272 KP03 1890 387 294 369 244 170 203 245 213 173 229 KP03 1900 272 245 252 325 302 189 181 262 156 161 KP03 1910 240 247 170 331 256 242 175 294 168 216 KP03 1920 185 140 276 110 163 146 133 263 161 156 KP03 1930 127 163 159 128 133 120 176 269 118 203 KP03 1940 180 195 214 127 124 139 143 208 144 111 KP03 1950 257 242 238 277 212 228 185 126 237 153 KP03 1960 210 264 194 206 295 244 340 245 290 198 KP03 1970 234 203 165 271 197 279 140 216 257 260 KP03 1980 274 136 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP17 18181981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP17 18189990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 444 335 KP17 1820 492 285 361 702 433 350 439 421 290 403 KP17 1830 312 333 242 329 458 360 297 564 517 475 KP17 1840 312 350 470 320 231 483 521 329 331 389 KP17 1850 346 281 277 397 377 256 237 251 312 257 KP17 1860 324 300 230 248 397 333 232 325 229 279 KP17 1870 341 220 340 256 193 307 246 272 239 285 KP17 1880 210 174 242 278 278 198 245 237 201 329 KP17 1890 261 399 425 324 216 282 198 179 180 219 KP17 1900 312 267 290 189 176 183 170 227 206 94 KP17 1910 240 142 269 295 172 179 123 235 185 146 KP17 1920 174 130 145 79 106 153 240 207 147 222 KP17 1930 154 252 193 93 204 148 230 154 111 234 KP17 1940 230 230 196 93 163 220 96 242 179 155 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106 123 252 197 227 196 173 KP16 1800 117 163 148 95 163 128 137 126 120 128 KP16 1810 111 193 167 174 148 117 156 140 136 108 KP16 1820 152 83 104 126 118 87 151 127 210 203 KP16 1830 164 236 151 183 182 124 240 336 214 231 KP16 1840 154 176 157 143 162 197 175 142 126 182 KP16 1850 162 185 143 221 126 143 129 147 124 101 KP16 1860 131 154 139 85 102 118 110 120 89 98 KP16 1870 152 141 143 139 72 113 124 154 116 117 KP16 1880 134 121 81 136 137 120 101 129 118 163 KP16 1890 182 168 181 150 126 137 108 134 83 129 KP16 1900 157 139 151 164 122 151 141 125 119 105 KP16 1910 154 134 134 161 158 134 116 234 124 148 KP16 1920 156 113 127 111 100 129 211 161 140 120 KP16 1930 113 167 148 108 121 113 160 137 75 138 KP16 1940 205 147 170 73 94 156 104 171 117 74 KP16 1950 124 141 137 133 111 99 94 66 74 71 KP16 1960 71 68 55 80 69 60 51 52 48 40 KP16 1970 43 45 41 35 42 40 39 57 55 113 KP16 1980 83 93 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP04 18121981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP04 18129990 9990 343 333 264 243 278 265 237 147 KP04 1820 218 149 230 277 286 247 315 256 265 376 KP04 1830 398 289 200 230 302 254 291 499 314 300 KP04 1840 320 380 284 275 218 396 333 159 147 289 KP04 1850 327 328 402 418 348 399 295 273 409 377 KP04 1860 456 304 243 247 335 330 241 412 340 457 KP04 1870 381 374 237 249 157 221 194 301 287 303 KP04 1880 170 206 191 268 169 217 157 163 153 208 KP04 1890 187 225 350 211 239 265 230 202 198 213 KP04 1900 308 275 228 231 266 237 233 198 223 185 KP04 1910 242 220 213 241 241 281 243 432 294 187 KP04 1920 225 166 252 192 177 206 176 207 231 248 KP04 1930 153 160 161 93 101 64 119 115 69 130 KP04 1940 135 168 180 103 128 121 125 189 128 111 KP04 1950 212 193 197 233 229 316 148 149 240 188 KP04 1960 249 261 244 354 315 365 468 324 337 335 KP04 1970 302 305 267 338 278 319 247 334 428 320 KP04 1980 350 278 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP31 18091981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP31 18099990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 206 KP31 1810 351 435 585 591 402 473 377 487 487 510 KP31 1820 582 296 276 343 305 213 303 237 274 357 KP31 1830 290 287 260 291 376 265 332 344 249 322 KP31 1840 202 437 377 310 248 364 305 231 208 368 KP31 1850 382 390 274 383 232 279 277 253 224 225 KP31 1860 230 311 299 183 213 354 262 280 174 319 KP31 1870 228 247 320 265 120 226 238 334 262 348 KP31 1880 240 219 236 277 169 198 305 189 242 350 KP31 1890 255 247 408 187 217 276 168 263 178 228 KP31 1900 246 217 284 243 185 170 163 157 169 181 KP31 1910 212 191 212 287 248 274 181 323 199 201 KP31 1920 180 152 313 188 246 242 239 248 250 196 KP31 1930 167 228 169 105 115 137 153 147 109 124 KP31 1940 137 107 118 67 72 71 67 61 62 46 KP31 1950 39 56 52 53 63 65 56 48 63 58 KP31 1960 51 57 63 73 84 89 84 95 98 81 KP31 1970 89 95 110 133 122 162 125 147 196 294 KP31 1980 217 170 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP01 17691981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP01 17699990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 547 KP01 1770 714 624 586 488 721 421 605 363 296 449 KP01 1780 581 461 457 301 551 673 994 623 345 382 KP01 1790 350 289 377 232 189 328 244 302 282 264 KP01 1800 335 228 195 174 224 249 219 135 115 145 KP01 1810 175 140 180 245 253 255 136 168 267 208 KP01 1820 185 220 199 217 218 204 202 183 159 256 KP01 1830 264 215 181 285 272 238 235 349 273 293 KP01 1840 187 330 308 242 213 283 437 308 311 304 KP01 1850 214 178 178 194 180 234 144 137 138 240 KP01 1860 165 226 160 184 218 216 187 244 158 206 KP01 1870 214 176 170 139 89 133 126 126 118 110 KP01 1880 76 116 69 95 103 112 91 90 93 129 KP01 1890 138 172 136 172 173 291 123 133 96 139 KP01 1900 111 129 115 137 115 95 107 66 96 59 KP01 1910 116 101 118 102 98 113 111 156 100 103 KP01 1920 108 84 118 92 99 131 116 154 106 147 KP01 1930 139 148 143 84 75 65 76 102 47 78 KP01 1940 114 97 84 56 61 81 78 170 93 72 KP01 1950 88 93 106 102 72 81 61 54 48 64 KP01 1960 122 121 119 172 164 175 155 141 126 131 KP01 1970 126 125 76 100 123 145 85 161 165 159 KP01 1980 110 82 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP15B 17921974151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP15B 17929990 9990 151 61 65 168 155 184 140 180 KP15B 1800 109 122 176 121 353 266 231 204 152 156 KP15B 1810 177 192 235 189 171 189 164 181 163 133 KP15B 1820 221 219 184 243 262 208 216 231 264 343 KP15B 1830 261 307 247 227 184 167 211 255 171 271 KP15B 1840 179 343 228 230 286 333 412 229 272 268 KP15B 1850 294 289 276 409 233 258 330 176 262 168 KP15B 1860 202 259 394 163 140 276 242 258 156 307 KP15B 1870 230 192 248 210 88 117 122 231 246 202 KP15B 1880 185 186 144 185 114 136 169 118 178 291 KP15B 1890 296 313 330 209 206 305 151 160 145 210 KP15B 1900 252 196 218 226 152 129 150 104 165 99 KP15B 1910 219 136 246 284 159 213 230 281 208 209 KP15B 1920 164 88 188 127 129 206 166 172 144 160 KP15B 1930 121 241 226 95 120 133 210 160 91 189 KP15B 1940 201 196 202 109 120 140 143 219 134 83 KP15B 1950 228 311 259 262 241 247 200 137 330 189 KP15B 1960 262 220 187 180 247 229 249 216 188 192 KP15B 1970 166 183 143 156 145 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP06 15861981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP06 15869990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 369 337 401 505 KP06 1590 305 199 245 342 283 423 320 382 362 279 KP06 1600 224 120 158 87 54 48 61 67 72 56 KP06 1610 53 83 91 124 109 121 136 173 115 145 KP06 1620 211 162 162 164 149 175 78 26 25 40 KP06 1630 32 50 47 44 55 53 69 67 58 72 KP06 1640 60 59 48 64 76 84 130 136 267 133 KP06 1650 64 50 47 50 58 72 84 101 142 133 KP06 1660 116 153 146 164 160 202 195 164 304 121 KP06 1670 43 31 46 50 48 43 41 53 32 40 KP06 1680 48 43 93 86 84 69 86 89 45 31 KP06 1690 19 40 34 37 39 95 120 95 112 166 KP06 1700 195 157 134 120 93 85 79 111 85 38 KP06 1710 53 59 50 59 20 48 40 74 71 96 KP06 1720 187 197 204 109 69 63 143 79 149 87 KP06 1730 83 105 115 99 87 165 146 164 221 86 KP06 1740 30 22 17 28 22 39 72 82 88 39 KP06 1750 63 113 81 89 139 155 158 118 146 103 KP06 1760 115 79 66 91 89 47 49 34 54 51 KP06 1770 57 62 63 64 96 64 100 59 84 45 KP06 1780 105 45 71 58 67 53 57 79 97 103 KP06 1790 77 71 113 55 55 82 62 82 74 60 KP06 1800 60 40 49 50 60 42 35 38 41 37 KP06 1810 43 59 63 72 69 46 53 46 67 36 KP06 1820 68 52 39 61 65 52 60 69 72 88 KP06 1830 59 56 32 60 32 40 70 77 70 67 KP06 1840 43 80 61 70 43 91 63 74 79 70 KP06 1850 53 42 55 78 68 98 79 59 73 70 KP06 1860 111 84 82 35 74 111 80 90 32 87 KP06 1870 119 128 123 90 46 81 81 89 124 199 KP06 1880 114 89 84 83 70 64 121 63 101 70 KP06 1890 49 76 90 78 107 111 65 97 72 92 KP06 1900 90 56 69 41 45 50 35 69 66 35 KP06 1910 46 37 81 67 62 73 58 109 89 60 KP06 1920 62 39 103 34 75 35 82 51 50 72 KP06 1930 48 121 79 82 79 50 122 78 63 101 KP06 1940 95 99 75 45 61 85 82 118 76 52 KP06 1950 54 58 39 65 63 63 53 39 53 63 KP06 1960 39 64 50 73 66 49 51 41 37 44 KP06 1970 48 49 34 57 39 46 28 33 56 66 KP06 1980 33 43 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP10 17281981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP10 17289990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 76 72 KP10 1730 115 126 174 195 171 120 138 174 57 33 KP10 1740 26 27 33 31 58 64 75 67 113 74 KP10 1750 104 242 103 113 166 206 258 241 412 451 KP10 1760 288 346 210 597 533 333 337 362 473 244 KP10 1770 303 310 262 247 214 251 340 286 250 205 KP10 1780 288 219 388 236 296 267 183 215 184 279 KP10 1790 135 151 189 127 142 369 182 201 138 201 KP10 1800 149 179 189 144 194 181 102 120 104 103 KP10 1810 115 135 186 218 178 129 192 191 171 97 KP10 1820 149 74 88 172 175 133 217 160 181 293 KP10 1830 217 183 112 129 96 170 183 247 225 250 KP10 1840 121 269 236 199 155 292 173 201 230 223 KP10 1850 198 154 116 312 177 154 148 137 171 100 KP10 1860 173 186 114 82 140 101 127 182 85 123 KP10 1870 165 179 165 120 47 121 124 151 119 287 KP10 1880 111 148 103 89 54 93 110 106 208 152 KP10 1890 105 172 194 163 134 132 83 83 71 91 KP10 1900 120 98 115 85 108 87 57 101 83 82 KP10 1910 85 106 124 124 75 126 105 195 159 104 KP10 1920 109 106 276 119 185 170 159 140 120 183 KP10 1930 134 159 142 79 82 164 205 147 123 190 KP10 1940 242 220 136 83 58 120 100 98 37 21 KP10 1950 43 88 61 106 96 119 122 87 154 107 KP10 1960 138 124 119 164 155 130 137 124 131 170 KP10 1970 114 132 89 103 73 137 77 74 66 110 KP10 1980 85 66 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP27 16971981151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP27 16979990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 70 65 51 KP27 1700 59 103 97 91 133 130 92 148 103 56 KP27 1710 35 59 67 74 71 48 119 76 100 102 KP27 1720 135 229 236 37 30 19 26 78 191 115 KP27 1730 230 199 182 126 112 196 102 52 49 39 KP27 1740 55 53 79 111 76 86 107 84 71 73 KP27 1750 114 180 121 74 113 135 138 174 202 186 KP27 1760 119 92 121 192 140 210 117 128 229 164 KP27 1770 204 173 191 191 192 215 224 261 199 163 KP27 1780 191 191 222 214 170 246 164 183 211 178 KP27 1790 178 156 194 94 65 191 130 216 208 178 KP27 1800 159 151 163 96 133 136 160 183 145 151 KP27 1810 181 221 190 205 192 127 156 176 166 98 KP27 1820 163 130 132 169 159 121 168 156 232 253 KP27 1830 217 208 104 133 147 113 137 206 209 213 KP27 1840 97 162 195 172 137 238 213 147 115 196 KP27 1850 199 176 148 191 152 139 175 166 152 130 KP27 1860 147 141 106 91 99 98 118 144 93 171 KP27 1870 178 245 208 187 90 175 174 264 192 204 KP27 1880 162 158 148 166 122 120 184 116 149 153 KP27 1890 209 235 293 213 181 196 118 129 98 125 KP27 1900 182 177 229 182 153 149 186 170 155 138 KP27 1910 214 215 196 203 157 212 175 184 137 156 KP27 1920 195 87 185 133 259 255 226 220 176 181 KP27 1930 118 201 180 110 128 159 220 223 110 256 KP27 1940 192 189 181 95 92 96 107 204 133 111 KP27 1950 255 180 204 192 165 173 169 156 210 133 KP27 1960 156 218 189 217 242 215 275 195 172 204 KP27 1970 189 200 155 227 155 169 128 235 274 309 KP27 1980 199 128 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 KP26A 16161725151.8 -1.5QUSP1 KP26A 16169990 9990 9990 9990 9990 9990 236 263 157 50 KP26A 1620 67 106 121 133 202 239 347 329 234 220 KP26A 1630 195 187 140 90 83 127 50 73 75 77 KP26A 1640 64 54 32 58 102 126 127 157 176 159 KP26A 1650 127 134 152 64 18 21 28 26 35 89 KP26A 1660 81 92 70 81 100 86 84 109 107 104 KP26A 1670 37 39 47 52 75 87 138 160 137 161 KP26A 1680 143 104 121 200 141 146 197 138 311 196 KP26A 1690 60 55 46 68 67 156 136 99 91 63 KP26A 1700 57 77 115 107 164 151 144 196 127 82 KP26A 1710 54 28 38 37 53 82 131 139 134 190 KP26A 1720 189 194 199 122 240 270 9990 9990 9990 9990 2240. 1998-03-24 12:39:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Mar 24 12:39:36 1998 from: Mike Hulme subject: ACACIA to: bruna.de-marchi@ta.isei.jrc.it Dear Bruna, I am contacting you on behalf of the ACACIA Concerted Action, being co-ordinated by Martin Parry with liaison in Brussels (DGXII) through Angela Liberatore. Your name has been recommended to me by Markku Wilenius in Finland. Attached below is a brief summary of what we would like to ask you to assist us with. If you have time to read this now please do and I will follow up with a phone call in the next 2-3 days to discuss your possible involvement (please send me by email your telephone number which I do not have). Thank you. Regards, Mike ______________________________________________________________________________ Terms of Reference for ACACIA Briefing Papers on User Needs ACACIA is a Concerted Action of the European Union co-ordinated by Professor Martin Parry and the Jackson Institute in London. The primary aim of ACACIA is to improve climate change impacts and adaptation assessments in the EU and thereby help society reduce the costs of adaptation to climate change. The three specific objectives of the Action are: · The formulation of design specifications for an in-depth assessment of the potential effects of climate change in the EU and the array of adaptive options. · The production of an interim assessment of the state of current knowledge of the likely impacts and potential adaptations with respect to climate change in the EU. · Recommendations concerning concrete steps needed to achieve an in-depth assessment of possible impacts and potential adaptations with respect to climate change in the EU. At the first ACACIA meeting in January 1998 a number of preliminary initiatives were agreed to be undertaken before the next meeting 15-16 June. These included the commissioning of a series of short (10pp.) papers from a number of key individuals around Europe with expertise in the area of stakeholder (footnote 1) needs regarding information about climate change impact and adaptation options. The purpose of these short briefings is to give the ACACIA team a summary of what we know about user/stakeholder needs, so that a judgement can be made about the required content of the interim synthesis (footnote 2) of current knowledge about climate impacts that will follow from the July meeting. REMIT FOR AUTHORS: What do we know about stakeholder needs in Europe for climate change impact information and adaptation options? Is there a recognised taxonomy of key users of this type of information? What ways exist for stratifying users according to their needs? How would you define user needs with respect to a synthesis of current knowledge on impacts from, and adaptations to, climate change in Europe? What would the product look like - the 1996 UK CCIRG Review, the 1998 IPCC Report on Regional Impacts, something different? How would you go about the synthesis? Authors should be prepared, if asked, to attend the July meeting. Notes: · The people to be approached are: Sue Postle, Merylyn MacKenzie-Hedger, Carlo Jaeger, Ferenc Toth, Markku Wilenius. · Briefing papers should be prepared by 15 May 1998 to allow time for synthesis prior to the 2nd ACACIA meeting in July. · Remuneration is available to the extent of ECU500 per author. Mike Hulme and Martin Parry, February 1998 Footnotes --------- 1 ACACIA defines users as a) policy-makers and managers at the EU, member-state and regional/local levels concerned with adaptation to climate change and with management under conditions altered by climate change (i.e., not specifically mitigators); b) entrepreneurs ( viz. in corporate sector); c) researchers; and d) citizens. NGOs and the media were not identified as prime stakeholders to be targeted by ACACIA. 2 The ACACIA interim assessment is expected to take about 12 months (from end of 1998) and be resourced by salary money totalling 15 person months (which can be divided into, for example, 1 month per 15 authors) as well as a 2/3 time report manager and scientific editor. There are funds to publish the report. 3549. 1998-03-25 10:51:49 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 10:51:49 +0000 (GMT) from: Simon Tett subject: Re: NAO paper etc. to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >>>>> "Tim" == Tim Osborn writes: Tim> Hi Simon Tim> I held off contacting you, knowing that you'd probably be very busy with Tim> the detection meeting. Now that's over I was wondering about your comments Tim> on the HADCM2 NAO paper, spectral analysis and annual Atlantic overturning Tim> series. Hope to hear from you soon. Tim, I've started to read the Paper, enclosed is a PS file of the two spectra. 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953 21 R 765 25 R 639 29 R 548 32 R 481 34 R 427 36 R 385 35 R 351 34 R 321 31 R 297 26 R 276 19 R 258 13 R 241 4 R D 10.000000 setlinewidth L0 7202 2619 M -222 -222 R 111 111 R -111 111 R 222 -222 R D 16296 2619 M -222 -222 R 111 111 R -111 111 R 222 -222 R D end restore showpage %%Trailer restore %%Pages: 1 %%DocumentFonts: Helvetica-Bold -- ============================================================ + Spinning in the wind at the UKMO + ============================================================ Tel : +[44]-1344-856886 Fax: +[44]-1344-854898 4066. 1998-03-25 11:09:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 25 Mar 1998 11:09:12 +0000 (GMT) from: Simon Tett subject: data of nth atl overturing. to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Tim, here is the north atlantic data you asked for: Year Overturning (Sv) 1851 20.7873 1852 21.4415 1853 21.8682 1854 21.0833 1855 21.5777 1856 21.3112 1857 21.1925 1858 21.5932 1859 20.7214 1860 22.0294 1861 21.5757 1862 21.3185 1863 21.6358 1864 22.3714 1865 21.2599 1866 19.8533 1867 21.0935 1868 19.6683 1869 18.8725 1870 18.6112 1871 18.8883 1872 19.2613 1873 20.6465 1874 19.8836 1875 19.9928 1876 20.5036 1877 19.6682 1878 19.3708 1879 19.2953 1880 19.5486 1881 19.8323 1882 20.6101 1883 20.6369 1884 20.7147 1885 20.4647 1886 20.9106 1887 19.5750 1888 20.4123 1889 20.7375 1890 18.7237 1891 20.3334 1892 18.8134 1893 19.3425 1894 18.5400 1895 18.4375 1896 19.4197 1897 18.8515 1898 18.8185 1899 19.5402 1900 19.4921 1901 19.6355 1902 19.6413 1903 20.8700 1904 20.0993 1905 20.4561 1906 19.0527 1907 18.9994 1908 19.5637 1909 19.5367 1910 19.5371 1911 19.9686 1912 18.5567 1913 19.8664 1914 19.3034 1915 19.5584 1916 20.7407 1917 20.3164 1918 19.3745 1919 18.5011 1920 19.4224 1921 18.4717 1922 18.8161 1923 18.2706 1924 18.7182 1925 19.5764 1926 19.1724 1927 19.1009 1928 19.1821 1929 18.6856 1930 19.1529 1931 19.1386 1932 18.2874 1933 18.5780 1934 18.2625 1935 18.6395 1936 18.9450 1937 19.0068 1938 20.1434 1939 18.8921 1940 19.7820 1941 19.9543 1942 19.0131 1943 19.1780 1944 18.9211 1945 19.2470 1946 18.7988 1947 19.7052 1948 19.8692 1949 20.6596 1950 20.0367 1951 19.0129 1952 19.8233 1953 19.4298 1954 19.3634 1955 20.6260 1956 19.4248 1957 19.8733 1958 19.3292 1959 20.7088 1960 19.4960 1961 19.3665 1962 19.0697 1963 19.2851 1964 18.9847 1965 19.7059 1966 19.8403 1967 18.3661 1968 19.7817 1969 20.2674 1970 19.6059 1971 20.2614 1972 19.4850 1973 18.5452 1974 18.0902 1975 18.8176 1976 18.6821 1977 19.2350 1978 19.8143 1979 19.6895 1980 19.6230 1981 20.0761 1982 19.0163 1983 18.6828 1984 19.3377 1985 19.3031 1986 19.1353 1987 19.7214 1988 19.5672 1989 20.5894 1990 19.8400 1991 19.3473 1992 20.1208 1993 19.7489 1994 20.3843 1995 20.0856 1996 19.7585 1997 19.9522 1998 20.0448 1999 20.2691 2000 20.8202 2001 20.8982 2002 20.4016 2003 19.5448 2004 21.4988 2005 20.4424 2006 19.8125 2007 19.2598 2008 19.8419 2009 19.0359 2010 18.7937 2011 18.4589 2012 18.9429 2013 18.6023 2014 19.5010 2015 19.5002 2016 18.2465 2017 18.7682 2018 19.7259 2019 19.4604 2020 19.5848 2021 19.6919 2022 18.5852 2023 20.2744 2024 20.5773 2025 20.4927 2026 19.6165 2027 19.7913 2028 20.3053 2029 20.1334 2030 20.3200 2031 20.4757 2032 20.1383 2033 20.9765 2034 20.0120 2035 21.3212 2036 21.2357 2037 20.9172 2038 20.3292 2039 20.2026 2040 20.2391 2041 20.6302 2042 21.6544 2043 20.0119 2044 20.3906 2045 20.2460 2046 21.0112 2047 20.4133 2048 20.6639 2049 20.7820 2050 20.9470 2051 20.9336 2052 19.3944 2053 20.4288 2054 20.5661 2055 20.8447 2056 20.6288 2057 20.5351 2058 20.0602 2059 20.2472 2060 19.5492 2061 20.1566 2062 20.5048 2063 21.1512 2064 20.4606 2065 21.0663 2066 20.5005 2067 20.8458 2068 21.5470 2069 19.7251 2070 19.8455 2071 20.2996 2072 19.6552 2073 19.6188 2074 21.2236 2075 20.3047 2076 20.9872 2077 20.1963 2078 19.9544 2079 19.9958 2080 19.9079 2081 20.9496 2082 19.9643 2083 20.6410 2084 20.2579 2085 21.3584 2086 20.2990 2087 20.4073 2088 21.2460 2089 20.7888 2090 21.2490 2091 20.6901 2092 21.4187 2093 20.6555 2094 21.5886 2095 20.6084 2096 20.3220 2097 20.4608 2098 20.6423 2099 20.8085 2100 21.7897 2101 20.2165 2102 19.6772 2103 20.7785 2104 20.2156 2105 20.8383 2106 20.1702 2107 20.6982 2108 21.3840 2109 21.1917 2110 20.6976 2111 20.8514 2112 20.6670 2113 21.3194 2114 21.3820 2115 21.3740 2116 21.9137 2117 21.8296 2118 21.5337 2119 20.2635 2120 20.8903 2121 21.1366 2122 20.0581 2123 20.1973 2124 20.5164 2125 20.9387 2126 21.3262 2127 20.6406 2128 21.6690 2129 21.6896 2130 21.1116 2131 20.5594 2132 20.9422 2133 20.4138 2134 21.5408 2135 21.5069 2136 20.7859 2137 20.1758 2138 20.9176 2139 20.2073 2140 21.5452 2141 20.4766 2142 19.6797 2143 20.6276 2144 20.4381 2145 20.7718 2146 19.9392 2147 19.9952 2148 20.6038 2149 21.6882 2150 20.9385 2151 19.7557 2152 20.4269 2153 20.7366 2154 19.9078 2155 19.7753 2156 20.4980 2157 19.7668 2158 20.2280 2159 20.2523 2160 20.5615 2161 20.0754 2162 20.2639 2163 20.1997 2164 19.7502 2165 21.2069 2166 19.8581 2167 20.9806 2168 20.7183 2169 20.7898 2170 20.3966 2171 20.7880 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2326 22.1836 2327 20.6552 2328 20.3653 2329 20.7059 2330 20.9014 2331 20.3669 2332 20.4990 2333 21.0322 2334 21.0144 2335 21.2793 2336 21.0608 2337 19.6325 2338 20.7663 2339 20.7139 2340 19.2672 2341 20.7206 2342 20.4389 2343 21.0433 2344 19.8189 2345 21.4535 2346 21.4321 2347 22.0111 2348 21.9704 2349 21.3507 2350 21.6225 2351 20.9525 2352 20.9297 2353 21.2179 2354 21.1009 2355 21.6095 2356 21.0008 2357 20.5963 2358 19.7910 2359 20.6283 2360 20.2104 2361 20.4059 2362 20.3600 2363 20.8790 2364 20.9894 2365 21.4711 2366 20.4324 2367 21.1249 2368 21.1551 2369 21.1598 2370 20.6980 2371 20.6672 2372 21.4048 2373 21.8010 2374 21.4278 2375 21.4180 2376 20.4273 2377 21.1010 2378 21.2849 2379 20.7957 2380 20.2718 2381 20.7142 2382 21.1813 2383 21.1362 2384 19.6420 2385 19.4236 2386 21.2385 2387 19.2314 2388 19.5978 2389 19.4780 2390 20.5988 2391 19.6173 2392 19.7141 2393 20.7759 2394 20.1794 2395 21.0323 2396 19.5194 2397 20.0727 2398 20.6497 2399 20.7800 2400 20.1987 2401 19.2941 2402 19.8981 2403 19.8945 2404 19.7812 2405 19.1005 2406 19.6869 2407 19.9287 2408 20.2939 2409 20.2236 2410 20.0385 2411 19.7198 2412 20.9081 2413 21.6797 2414 19.7788 2415 20.8101 2416 21.0196 2417 20.7986 2418 21.2046 2419 20.8773 2420 21.6427 2421 20.2003 2422 20.5136 2423 20.5493 2424 19.7320 2425 20.8489 2426 19.6921 2427 19.9888 2428 20.5907 2429 21.5803 2430 20.2625 2431 19.8605 2432 20.1559 2433 21.0333 2434 21.2673 2435 20.2369 2436 20.1276 2437 21.1738 2438 19.8929 2439 21.5815 2440 20.6456 2441 20.1435 2442 21.6819 2443 21.6091 2444 20.5484 2445 20.4177 2446 20.4738 2447 20.4990 2448 20.7746 2449 20.8195 2450 21.0501 2451 19.8665 2452 20.1029 2453 20.0908 2454 20.4793 2455 21.2183 2456 20.0033 2457 20.5699 2458 19.8136 2459 19.9963 2460 20.9044 2461 21.0516 2462 21.0483 2463 20.3873 2464 20.2579 2465 20.9642 2466 19.4287 2467 20.0490 2468 20.3512 2469 20.2072 2470 19.8795 2471 19.0324 2472 19.6930 2473 19.6483 2474 19.6462 2475 20.2868 2476 19.3929 2477 21.4160 2478 20.1036 2479 19.4702 2480 20.4398 2481 20.5138 2482 20.4665 2483 20.5175 2484 20.7702 2485 19.6599 2486 21.3462 2487 21.5108 2488 21.2938 2489 21.3430 2490 22.6357 2491 20.6830 2492 20.5748 2493 21.1600 2494 20.3749 2495 20.2257 2496 19.2731 2497 20.5526 2498 20.7922 2499 21.3109 2500 20.0568 2501 21.9791 2502 21.3279 2503 21.2113 2504 20.5083 2505 20.6889 2506 19.6483 2507 20.5284 2508 21.4370 2509 20.5520 2510 19.6257 2511 20.1644 2512 20.1598 2513 20.2297 2514 21.2749 2515 21.1686 2516 19.7003 2517 21.1046 2518 20.3914 2519 21.5609 2520 20.5618 2521 21.6342 2522 21.0100 2523 20.9004 2524 20.1935 2525 19.2024 2526 20.5229 2527 19.7314 2528 20.3012 2529 20.4268 2530 19.4208 2531 20.3770 2532 19.6318 2533 20.6210 2534 20.3267 2535 21.2332 2536 21.0751 2537 20.9949 2538 20.7827 2539 20.8823 2540 20.4845 2541 19.6883 2542 19.3192 2543 19.7071 2544 20.2789 2545 19.4721 2546 19.5399 2547 20.2157 2548 19.5975 2549 20.8307 2550 19.5369 2551 19.7645 2552 20.1507 2553 19.5666 2554 20.2761 2555 20.1563 2556 20.2197 2557 20.8169 2558 20.2353 2559 20.7306 2560 19.9504 2561 19.2796 2562 20.0881 2563 20.0093 2564 19.2713 2565 19.0413 2566 20.2323 2567 20.0807 2568 19.9127 2569 19.6463 2570 20.5802 2571 20.3037 2572 20.6978 2573 20.1563 2574 21.1517 2575 21.1802 2576 19.6589 2577 19.9925 2578 20.7211 2579 21.1605 2580 19.9374 2581 20.8052 2582 20.7426 2583 19.4523 2584 19.2163 2585 19.9334 2586 20.3218 2587 20.6807 2588 20.3913 2589 21.3687 2590 20.8368 2591 21.1366 2592 20.7284 2593 22.7549 2594 21.1078 2595 21.2941 2596 21.2710 2597 21.3051 2598 20.6850 2599 20.6421 2600 19.4552 2601 21.0154 2602 20.1126 2603 20.7301 2604 19.7939 2605 19.4937 2606 19.7095 2607 20.5347 2608 18.9116 2609 19.0099 2610 18.5660 2611 18.0754 2612 19.7825 2613 19.2626 2614 18.7233 2615 19.5855 2616 20.3690 2617 20.6344 2618 19.6895 2619 20.1795 2620 19.8658 2621 19.9249 2622 21.0133 2623 21.2055 2624 20.2801 2625 20.5121 2626 20.9502 2627 20.7579 2628 20.6110 2629 20.4372 2630 19.9139 2631 19.8519 2632 20.7527 2633 19.9281 2634 21.2548 2635 20.2780 2636 20.0363 2637 20.0695 2638 20.9436 2639 19.9355 2640 21.1790 2641 19.5667 2642 18.8749 2643 19.9152 2644 19.4218 2645 19.5540 2646 19.8769 2647 19.5287 2648 19.0978 2649 19.6877 2650 20.8758 2651 19.6445 2652 20.5142 2653 20.7463 2654 21.4665 2655 19.9627 2656 20.5021 2657 20.3346 2658 20.0700 2659 20.3741 2660 19.7824 2661 20.7775 2662 20.6336 2663 20.7224 2664 20.7386 2665 21.2221 2666 20.0572 2667 19.4891 2668 20.4075 2669 19.5094 2670 19.4248 2671 19.4806 2672 20.1947 2673 20.5545 2674 20.5466 2675 20.2547 2676 19.9199 2677 18.9308 2678 18.7133 2679 18.7825 2680 18.8370 2681 18.5263 2682 20.0190 2683 19.3767 2684 19.0887 2685 19.5058 2686 20.4891 2687 20.6455 2688 20.8874 2689 20.4084 2690 19.3950 2691 20.1176 2692 18.6723 2693 19.7718 2694 19.6215 2695 20.0298 2696 20.0366 2697 19.9490 2698 20.4109 2699 21.1311 2700 20.5233 2701 20.2219 2702 20.8331 2703 22.0182 2704 21.6306 2705 20.0812 2706 21.5063 2707 20.6306 2708 22.9036 2709 21.3370 2710 21.1044 2711 22.1031 2712 22.1574 2713 22.0610 2714 21.3662 2715 22.5439 2716 22.5602 2717 21.5221 2718 21.9472 2719 22.2795 2720 21.0529 2721 21.2451 2722 21.1931 2723 20.7283 2724 21.1622 2725 20.9049 2726 20.6413 2727 21.1783 2728 20.9705 2729 20.6108 2730 20.6506 2731 21.1116 2732 21.9030 2733 21.6111 2734 22.7422 2735 21.4497 2736 22.6340 2737 23.2439 2738 22.6959 2739 23.8603 2740 23.8826 2741 23.2253 2742 23.7673 2743 24.0622 2744 22.0682 2745 22.4708 2746 22.5504 2747 22.6320 2748 22.7981 2749 23.8238 2750 21.7164 2751 21.9030 2752 21.9877 2753 21.1103 2754 21.3899 2755 21.8068 2756 22.1658 2757 21.3621 2758 19.8377 2759 21.0838 2760 21.3327 2761 21.5243 2762 21.2894 2763 21.9680 2764 22.0167 2765 21.2677 2766 21.7742 2767 22.1061 2768 21.1466 2769 22.1283 2770 21.4578 2771 20.8998 2772 20.5208 2773 21.9363 2774 21.6243 2775 21.3064 2776 21.8073 2777 21.0570 2778 21.5262 2779 22.0996 2780 22.0258 2781 22.3132 2782 23.0599 2783 21.4122 2784 22.1925 2785 22.1645 2786 22.5008 2787 22.2079 2788 22.3709 2789 22.9113 2790 22.7431 2791 21.8682 2792 22.3783 2793 21.0271 2794 21.9895 2795 21.8504 2796 21.3970 2797 21.8191 2798 23.0003 2799 23.0733 2800 22.7596 2801 24.2713 2802 23.2440 2803 23.7601 2804 23.2817 2805 22.5732 2806 23.0496 2807 23.9783 2808 22.6098 2809 23.2448 2810 22.0602 2811 22.0787 2812 23.0826 2813 21.2265 2814 21.5295 2815 22.4526 2816 22.0194 2817 20.9463 2818 21.0906 2819 21.6241 2820 20.6641 2821 21.3104 2822 21.2969 2823 21.1192 2824 21.8343 2825 21.3181 2826 20.7049 2827 21.7138 2828 21.1008 2829 20.8368 2830 21.3325 2831 21.5795 2832 22.3451 2833 21.5102 2834 22.8233 2835 22.6233 2836 23.0337 2837 22.4151 2838 22.1883 2839 23.0242 2840 21.7689 2841 21.7681 2842 22.8530 2843 22.5634 2844 20.9477 2845 21.0633 2846 21.5043 2847 20.4277 2848 20.0127 2849 21.8081 2850 21.3076 2851 20.6354 2852 21.1530 2853 21.9032 2854 22.1439 2855 21.7056 2856 21.5449 2857 20.6814 2858 22.6525 2859 22.3549 2860 21.8780 2861 20.5352 2862 21.3008 2863 21.2280 2864 20.4267 2865 21.5089 2866 22.1325 2867 21.7914 2868 22.3912 2869 21.7505 2870 21.6860 2871 21.0533 2872 21.5418 2873 22.0301 2874 21.6020 2875 20.9219 2876 21.8972 2877 21.8976 2878 20.9418 2879 21.1222 2880 21.0978 2881 20.5113 2882 21.0780 2883 20.8160 2884 21.0140 2885 21.2936 2886 20.8639 2887 22.5201 2888 21.8537 2889 20.9667 2890 21.8831 2891 22.3451 2892 22.2773 2893 21.1407 2894 22.0754 2895 21.7131 2896 20.9206 2897 21.7130 2898 20.8471 2899 21.9795 2900 22.4963 2901 21.9115 2902 20.6113 2903 21.2436 2904 20.9283 2905 21.2670 2906 20.4457 2907 21.0464 2908 20.0871 2909 20.5949 2910 21.7554 2911 20.6906 2912 21.1263 2913 21.0495 2914 21.4513 2915 19.8030 2916 21.4829 2917 20.9507 2918 20.5889 2919 20.6017 2920 19.3436 2921 21.1970 2922 20.5149 2923 20.4282 2924 20.6623 2925 20.4548 2926 21.2401 2927 20.0800 2928 20.1310 2929 19.6062 2930 20.6399 2931 20.7121 2932 20.2698 2933 19.6863 2934 20.9700 2935 20.6612 2936 20.5102 2937 20.8497 2938 21.2236 2939 20.9836 2940 21.0302 2941 21.0373 2942 19.0937 2943 19.0013 2944 19.2749 2945 20.0359 2946 20.8452 2947 20.7437 2948 20.0261 2949 20.4408 2950 20.3064 2951 21.3382 2952 21.5700 2953 20.6636 2954 20.5802 2955 20.0827 2956 21.5422 2957 20.5042 2958 20.5023 2959 21.3028 2960 20.7956 2961 21.2623 2962 21.1742 2963 20.6452 2964 20.6416 2965 20.4382 2966 21.0807 2967 20.5694 2968 20.6604 2969 21.1610 2970 22.4252 2971 21.7875 2972 21.0229 2973 20.0375 2974 20.1510 2975 20.3212 2976 20.0912 2977 20.4043 2978 19.5339 2979 19.1233 2980 20.1216 2981 19.2392 2982 19.7735 2983 19.9054 2984 20.7314 2985 20.1584 2986 19.8408 2987 21.1558 2988 20.3661 2989 19.4689 2990 20.4796 2991 20.9506 2992 20.6025 2993 20.7499 2994 21.3287 2995 21.6735 2996 21.5188 2997 22.4154 2998 22.1008 2999 21.5144 3000 21.3045 3001 21.0883 3002 21.8061 3003 22.1209 3004 22.2483 3005 21.5824 3006 21.7719 3007 21.0727 3008 21.2198 3009 21.4255 3010 20.9445 3011 22.2067 3012 20.4440 3013 20.2081 3014 19.7811 3015 21.1315 3016 20.0136 3017 20.1820 3018 21.6997 3019 20.2302 3020 20.9005 3021 20.4604 3022 21.2480 3023 20.9209 3024 21.3015 3025 21.5970 3026 21.0474 3027 20.7614 3028 20.4724 3029 20.6844 3030 20.1232 3031 19.7645 3032 20.6330 3033 20.8360 3034 20.6619 3035 21.0751 3036 20.1881 3037 21.3219 3038 22.0906 3039 20.3903 3040 20.4896 3041 21.5549 3042 20.7611 3043 20.7951 3044 21.5219 3045 20.6286 3046 22.4055 3047 21.3489 3048 20.9624 3049 21.3077 3050 21.4563 3051 20.6888 3052 21.0731 3053 20.7984 3054 21.3757 3055 20.7978 3056 21.6839 3057 20.9834 3058 21.3975 3059 20.9471 3060 21.6292 3061 20.8959 3062 20.6919 3063 20.9913 3064 20.4940 3065 21.3192 3066 20.7240 3067 21.0817 3068 22.5156 3069 22.4195 3070 21.1448 3071 21.1449 3072 22.2141 3073 20.9173 3074 22.4645 3075 22.9078 3076 21.2350 3077 22.1998 3078 20.8712 3079 21.1561 3080 21.7290 3081 21.6170 3082 22.2288 3083 22.7776 3084 21.6494 3085 22.7390 3086 21.7723 3087 22.0833 3088 21.9350 3089 22.0237 3090 21.8613 3091 21.2765 3092 22.4055 3093 21.0772 3094 21.4824 3095 21.2512 3096 21.0404 3097 21.2509 3098 22.4002 3099 21.8862 3100 20.8313 3101 20.2537 3102 21.0928 3103 22.3045 3104 22.1040 3105 22.3217 3106 22.4330 3107 21.8846 3108 21.7718 3109 21.7519 3110 22.3530 3111 21.5888 3112 22.9158 3113 21.5456 3114 22.1791 3115 22.6357 3116 22.7032 3117 21.7762 3118 22.2129 3119 22.2831 3120 22.2371 3121 21.9236 3122 21.1659 3123 21.8311 3124 21.9467 3125 22.5217 3126 21.4940 3127 20.5485 3128 21.0852 3129 21.4402 3130 20.5111 3131 19.8691 3132 19.7431 3133 20.6186 3134 20.3070 3135 20.9974 3136 20.4110 3137 21.4768 3138 20.2926 3139 20.1430 3140 19.9346 3141 20.8284 3142 20.7707 3143 19.9622 3144 20.4857 3145 21.5778 3146 20.2966 3147 21.1059 3148 21.2014 3149 20.6838 3150 21.2893 3151 21.9608 3152 21.4169 3153 21.1310 3154 21.4853 3155 22.4891 3156 21.9672 3157 22.2805 3158 21.7374 3159 22.4864 3160 22.9482 3161 21.5967 3162 21.9808 3163 22.2196 3164 22.5769 3165 21.7587 3166 22.0097 3167 22.4417 3168 22.2368 3169 22.0618 3170 20.8760 3171 20.7825 3172 19.8274 3173 20.3003 3174 20.0038 3175 20.0885 3176 21.8016 3177 21.6428 3178 20.6824 3179 21.9213 3180 19.9629 3181 19.5495 3182 19.9439 3183 21.4050 3184 20.5133 3185 20.6005 3186 20.2197 3187 21.3183 3188 20.7365 3189 20.5638 3190 20.0194 3191 20.2794 3192 21.7245 3193 21.1772 3195 22.5193 3196 20.8997 3197 21.2506 3198 21.2114 3199 21.4045 3200 21.4880 3201 21.6837 3202 22.2447 3203 22.3449 3204 22.3701 3205 21.5006 3206 22.0228 3207 22.6574 3208 21.5529 3209 22.8326 3210 21.0871 3211 22.1833 3212 22.2316 3213 21.1095 3214 22.5202 3215 23.2312 3216 21.8647 3217 22.5924 3218 22.4474 3219 22.3004 3220 21.8952 3221 22.2325 3222 22.2949 3223 21.7389 3224 21.3900 3225 21.4114 3226 21.7358 3227 22.2125 3228 21.8444 3229 20.6536 3230 19.4878 3231 19.6744 3232 21.1989 3233 19.9338 3234 20.4935 3235 20.8631 3236 21.3403 3237 22.0712 3238 21.2020 3239 21.2280 3240 20.9803 3241 20.1247 3242 19.1480 3243 20.3961 3244 21.2426 3245 20.7433 3246 20.4081 3247 21.0302 3248 20.7039 3249 21.4706 3250 22.1098 3251 22.0737 3252 21.7749 3253 21.5826 3254 21.9322 3255 21.5699 3256 20.8176 3257 21.0556 3258 20.5397 3259 20.1466 3260 19.8003 3261 21.6253 3262 20.2873 3263 21.7559 3264 21.3101 3265 21.3880 3276 21.3574 3277 21.7129 3278 21.1128 3279 22.3272 3280 21.5144 3281 21.4253 3282 21.3176 3283 21.5639 3284 21.7862 3285 22.4830 3286 21.4926 3287 20.8703 3288 21.4671 3289 21.4381 3290 21.5394 3291 21.2393 3292 21.9961 3293 20.3059 3294 20.3519 3295 20.5432 3296 21.4926 3297 20.6494 3298 20.6905 3299 20.8447 3300 20.7472 3301 21.4741 3302 20.8581 3303 20.8998 3304 21.1820 3305 20.5602 3306 21.9342 3307 21.0362 3308 20.8416 3309 20.3162 3310 21.3555 3311 21.1923 3312 20.8443 3313 21.2593 3314 22.4170 3315 21.0753 3316 21.0235 3317 20.4819 3318 20.1300 3319 20.7229 3320 21.1404 3321 21.7000 3322 21.3016 3323 21.3726 3324 22.1449 3325 21.0643 3326 20.7551 3327 21.8448 3328 22.1153 3329 22.0749 3330 21.2514 3331 21.8037 3332 21.5742 3333 22.2749 3334 21.6516 3335 21.6112 3336 21.0993 3337 20.5066 3338 21.7186 3339 22.0775 3340 21.9671 3341 21.8457 3342 22.2292 3343 21.5383 3344 22.3083 3345 21.5671 3346 21.6705 3347 21.7959 3348 20.9775 3349 21.2896 3350 22.2827 3351 21.9087 3352 20.5193 3353 21.2152 3354 20.4422 3721. 1998-04-03 16:02:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 03 Apr 1998 16:02:58 +0200 from: Hĺkan grudd subject: Dropstones and tree rings to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Keith, I have just been listening to a very interesting seminar on dropstones from caves in South Africa and Gotland (Island east of Sweden). Both are works by graduate students. In the African dropstone annual varves have been identified and crosdated with tree rings. The width of the varves correlate with annual precipitation (semiarid climate) and tree-ring width. The maximum gray tone in each varve has been correlated with temperature. The correlation values for the calibration period is very good! The student presented a temperature curve for the last c. 6500 years. It looks really interesting: a generally warm period in the first part, drops down to generally lower vaules at around 2000 BC, a big peak centered around 400 BC! Little bit varmer with a lot of variability in Medieval times, a drop in 14th century with cold temperature and very little variation for some hundreds of years (Little Ice Age?) and the again higher in the last two centuries. The dropstone from Gotland had dating problems. They tried to crossdate with Bartholin's pine chronologies without success. Karin Holmgren, who has been supervising this work and herself made her thesis on dropstones and climate, have very little knowledge in dendro-methods and seeks co-operation. The world seems filled with prospects! Do you know anything about tree-ring chronologies from north-eastern South Africa? Cheers, Hĺkan PS. Any luck in finding my keys? 4330. 1998-04-06 14:14:38 ______________________________________________________ cc: 'isobel' date: Mon, 6 Apr 1998 14:14:38 +0100 from: "Measures, Jane" subject: Climate Change CD ROM to: 'Mike Hulme' Mike It was good to talk with you last week. Sorry for the delay in sending this but today was my first opportunity to talk with our multimedia developers. It looks like we could potentially wait until the end of June for your input. We are in fact having a meeting this Wednesday to assimilate all of the information received to date from our external advisers, look for gaps and generate issues to plug the gaps. We will also recheck the schedule. Here is the latest Design document. Here is a list of issue triggers which I think will enable us to cover the content of the Science Briefing Paper -we could do it by simply covering the ones I have asterisked (these appear in cirlces alongside the appropriate parts of the briefing paper on the fax I will send you if you supply your fax number) and the additional ones enable us to add a bit of extra depth (these will be indicated with brackets in the fax). Please view these as provisional until we have had our meeting on Wednesday but they will be indicative of the number and scope. Here is a blank issue template: And here is one which has been completed as an example: We discussed the fact that it would be good if you could provide us with the briefing paper and the completed issues templates by end June. Can you let me know what you think now that you have this additional information? The OU have provided me with some useful tapes about CLimate Change and I was watching one yesterday from their Open Saturday series which featured someone from UEA, name escapes me but I've written it down at home, he was very good. I particularly like one of his statements which went something like 'It would be very presumptious of us if we thought we could exactly model something as complex as the natural environment.....' a good way of describing the complexity we face. I will make fresh contact with WWF this week to see if they have any interest in trialling the disc and creating teacher guidance notes on potential uses for the disc. Regards Jane Jane Measures BP Britannic House Tel. +44 171 496 4924 Fax. +44 171 496 4738 E mail MEASUREJ@BP.COM Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\DesignMarch.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Science Issue triggers .doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\TEMPLAT1.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\issue038.doc" 3455. 1998-04-07 10:10+0 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 07 Apr 1998 10:10 +0000 (GMT) from: djgriggs@meto.gov.uk subject: IPCC Third Assessment Report to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike You probably know most of the information below already. I hope you are able to come. Dave Dear Mike I am writing to inform you that you will be receiving an invitation to a Scoping Meeting for the Working Group I volume of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. As you may already be aware IPCC is beginning preparations for its Third Assessment Report (TAR). The Third Assessment Report will be comprehensive and cover the complete range of scientific, technical, economic issues associated with the climate system and climate change deemed important by the expert or policy-making communities. The TAR will summarise the state of knowledge covered in previous IPCC reports, but will primarily assess information generated since the Second Assessment Report, recognising that climate change is a global issue but emphasising the assessment of the regional aspects of climate change. It will consist of reports of the three IPCC Working Groups and a Synthesis Report. The Synthesis Report will be written in a non-technical style suitable for policymakers and will address a broead range of key policy-relevant questions. The process for selecting Lead Authors (LA), Contributing Authors (CA) and Review Editors (RE) has begun. The Bureaux of the three IPCC Working Groups met in March 1998 to identify experts (about 4-5 per chapter) to come to a Scoping Meeting scheduled for 29 June - 1 July 1998. It is anticipated that many of the experts selected for the Scoping Meeting will play an important role in the drafting of the three Working Group Reports. At the Scoping Meeting the chapter structure and contents of each of the Reports will be planned and the selection process for the Lead Author teams will be advanced. The chapter structure and contents of the reports will be adopted at an IPCC Plenary scheduled for 1-3 October 1998, by which time it is expected that the Lead Author teams will be complete, subject to minor amendments. Chapter teams will begin the drafting process in late 1998/early 1999. The three WG Reports will each undergo sequential expert and government reviews during the year 2000 and the reports are expected to be completed by late 2000/early 2001. As I indicated you will be receiving a formal invitation to this meeting from IPCC in the near future but as the meeting is only a few months away I thought it advisable to let you know as soon as possible that you will be receiving an invitation. It would also be very useful for me to know if you are willing and able to attend the meeting so that replacements can be found for those unable to attend. I look forward to hearing from you and hopefully to your attendance at the meeting and involvement in the preparation of the TAR. Regards David Griggs Head IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr David Griggs IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit Hadley Centre Met Office London Road Bracknell Berks, RG12 2SY Tel: +44 (0)1344 856615 Fax: +44 (0)1344 856912 e-mail: djgriggs@meto .gov.uk ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4771. 1998-04-07 18:00:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 7 Apr 1998 18:00:00 +0100 from: Tom Downing subject: Comments on two recent meetings to: IEA@NIC.SURFNET.NL EFers: After the Amsterdam meeting I attended two other "global change" meetings, where I saw at least some of you as well. My (very) personal reflections: The GCTE/LUCC Open Science Meeting (Barcelona, end of February) demonstrated the reluctance of the IGBP (and to some extent the IHDP as well) to tackle IEA, and the integration of social and natural sciences in particular. Although there is some experimentation in LUCC, the emphasis tends to be on using tools to answer a land use question rather than evaluating the use of the tools themselves. The IPCC (San Jose, end of March) is beginning to look at adaptation to impacts, not just mitigation. This opens new doors for IEA, and new requirements for representing stakeholders and decision making. However there is no clear methodology or mandate from the IPCC so far, and lots of dissention about what is adaptation and how to include it in the third assessment report. Two specific tensions are: 1. Adaptation/short term decision making vv long term scenarios and the major effort to provide climate scenarios to users (e.g., the data distribution centers). In the short term, say up to 2025, that is a pretty long planning horizon for most stakeholders, the climate scenarios are not well differentiated and are likely to have little impact on responses. The issue is strategy and uncertainty rather than predicted impacts. Would the IPCC ever acknowledge that most of the climate science is irrelevant to most present adaptation decisions? 2. Vulnerability/local development vv impacts/global policy. The local nature of vulnerability (especially in developing countries) is at odds with the mandate for large impacts at the global level to drive climate (abatement) policy. In contrast, my (very?) personal view of the EF is that at least we are asking the right questions and have assembled a first-rate group of people who are willing to learn from each other. Tom 115. 1998-04-16 09:17:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 16 Apr 1998 09:17:07 +0300 from: Wilenius Markku subject: RE: Acacia-questions to: 'Mike Hulme' Dear Mike, Thanks for your reflections which sure help me a lot in my orientation. Best regards Markku > -----Original Message----- > From: Mike Hulme [SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: 9. huhtikuuta 1998 13:15 > To: Wilenius Markku > Subject: Re: Acacia-questions > > Markku, > > Here are a few more thoughts about the ACACIA briefing papers. > > The purpose of these papers (I have commissioned four) is to draw upon > the > experience and expertise of people around Europe who have been > involved in > considering the types of information needs organisations have when > considering their response to climate change. The ACACIA group wishes > to > reflect on these experiences before designing their synthesis report > on: > "The impacts of climate change on Europe and options for adaptation." > This > report - to be presented to the Commission in the year 2000 - needs to > include the 'right' type of information, presented in the 'right' way, > and > targeted to meet the needs of the hierarchy of organisations (public > and > private) who may be seen as stakeholders in the climate change issue. > Two > examples of reports covering the same ground are the UK CCIRG report > of > 1996 on potential effects of climate change on the UK and the European > chapter in the recent 1998 IPCC report on regional impacts. We think > both > these reports, although having strengths, can be substantially > improved > upon in the way in which information is synthesised and presented. > > For example, the CCIRG report went through 15 sectoral chapters > structured > as follows: Introduction, Assessment of Impact, Adaptation Potential, > Unknowns and Uncertainties, Implications for Other Sectors, and > Research > and Policy Issues. The IPCC chapter for Europe was structured: > Introduction and Background, Regional Climate Characteristics, Key > Impacts, > Integrated Assessment of Potential Vulnerabilities and Impacts. > > We want the structure of our report to be driven more explicitly by > user > and stakeholder needs. Therefore the sort of considerations we need > to > make (and this is where we are asking for your insights and opinions) > are > these: > > · What time-scales of information are needed? Do stakeholders want > descriptions of future climate and climate impact 50-100 years in the > future or a better description, including extremes, of past and > present > climate variability and near-term future climate? Is 2020 too far > ahead to > worry about or is 2050 or 2080 a necessary horizon? > > · At what space-scales is information needed? At what point down the > hierarchy from global impacts to local/site impacts are stakeholders > interested? Is there any value at all in global or European-wide > studies > that generalise greatly? > > · What mechanisms for information dissemination are preferred? All > knowledge is provisional and one of the key questions is how do > stakeholders gain access to the changing knowledge base. Related to > this > of course is how is uncertainty presented - as a range of > possibilities, as > a best guess plus a range, as a probability distribution, as simply a > best > guess case? And what about scenario extremes (i.e., very low risk, > high > impact outcomes)? How do stakeholders handle these extreme > possibilities? > > · Do different types of organisations (national government, commerce, > local > government, consumer groups and co-operatives, etc.) need different > types > of information (e.g. lists of impacts, probability judgements on scale > of > impacts, time horizons of change, impacts or adaptation options, > etc.)? > > · What is the balance between concern about climate impact versus > opportunity for adaptation to climate? What information is perhaps > uniquely relevant for adaptation considerations that is rarely > considered > in a climate change impact assessment? > > · How does information about climate change relate to information they > may > need/use about other, non-climatic futures - e.g. scenarios of > cultural and > technological change, predictions of economic growth, etc.? It may be > that > climate information is relatively low priority for some. How > contingent on > other non-climatic assumptions should climate change impact scenarios > be? > > · What information is of most use and to whom and delivered in what > way - > formal models, expert synthesis, probabilistic statements or > qualitative > information? > > > And some general points. Examples can be from national, European or > non-European case studies. Our report will focus on the EU, but we > can > learn from experiences in other regions. We are considering the full > array > of social and ecosystem activities in our assessment - thus forests, > commerce, water, energy, culture, etc. The whole array of climate > variables is therefore relevant. Organisations can be public (e.g., > EU > Commission, national ministries, local government, nationalised/public > industries) and private (e.g., insurance, commodity trading, > consultancies, > manufacturing, utilities, consumer groups), but not primarily NGOs. > > Regards, > > Mike > > At 15:06 06/04/98 +0300, you wrote: > >Dear Mike, > > > >As I'm orientating to activities that touch upon the issues to be > raised > >in coming Acacia-paper, I wonder if you'd be able to elaborate a bit > >further types of questions/concerns/variables that should be > introduced > >and discussed in the coming paper/project > > > >Best wishes > > > >Markku > > 1664. 1998-05-15 14:30:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 15 May 1998 14:30:42 +0100 from: "Waumsley, Lorraine J" subject: CD Rom Triggers to: 'mike hulme' Mike Sorry if my conversation earlier today regarding the CD Rom triggers was confusing. I had not realised that Jane had already arranged for you to send your input to Isobel Pring. Can you stick with her plan please. Thanks for the offer to come and talk to the Berkhamsted Branch of the GA I look forward to your reply re: the date. Regards Lorraine Waumsley Education Liaison Co-ordinator Extension 2922 Desk 1529 2335. 1998-05-15 17:13:49 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 15 May 1998 17:13:49 +0100 from: Mike Hulme subject: DDC & Guidelines to: tgcia@meto.gov.uk Dear All, I have some responses to various points raised in the Conference so far. On Monday I wish to raise some more specific issues that remain unresolved in the Guidelines and on the web site. Paul Desanker: the 'CRU climatology' has received no funding from IPCC. It has been developed over a long period of time with many funders. We have a Part I paper coming out in J.Climate and a Part II paper in preparation. We have compared our new fields with Legates/Wilmott and Leemans/Cramer (the two other most widely used to date, but both have problems!). Both Rik and Wolfgang have encouraged us in our work and recognise that our new product is superior to theirs - indeed they are already using our new dataset as are an increasing number of others. We include it not as an IPCC-endorsed product, but as *one* (useful) product among many others. People can of course use what they like. Finer resolution (spatial and temporal) is part of our longer-term research plan but we need funding and data!!! We are working on it. Tell as many people who have influence that there *is* the potential to go down to 10k resolution and daily time-steps, but only if data are forthcoming and funding is in place. Funders seem not to like funding such 'boring' data work - we got turned down by the EU recently. John Mitchell: I think John's point about a quick-look quide to the main pitfalls in scenario use is important. It can be in the Guidelines, but it is also the sort of thing I intend to have on the web site under FAQs. These have not been activated yet, but will do so gradually - and in response to questions from DDC users. This is a dynamic thing. Suggestions welcome. Luis Mata: interesting question about harmonising and/or simplyfing the web site. We have debated how to structure all the material - a 'single route' through or 'multiple-links' between pages. We have gone for the latter. This may be too confusing in the end, although our desire was to allow people to make quick connections between the various components essential for scenario construction. Other comments welcome on this. The CD-ROM will only contain the 30-year aggregates so there will be a degree of uniformity among CD-ROM users rather than web users who can download all monthly data. In the end the data are the same, but what you can do with them differs. Martin Parry: on the question of 'hand-holding examples' for DDC users. This is tricky. The TGCIA, through Tim and the DDC, could certainly provide these, but we then become rather prescriptive and since there are many options and even more opinions on how best to handle all the issues can the TGCIA (and IPCC?) endorse this? I personally would like to be more prescriptive (e.g. on incorporating uncertainties), but this may lead us into trouble. Tim has laid out the options very well. Maybe we could include some 'worked examples' in an Appendix or on the web site and CD-ROM? The role of training is important here, since the 'hand-holding' is best done in this context. About distribution: the Guidelines *must* exist in hardcopy, but we will also attempt to put them on the web. But I intend the CD-ROM (available free for any user) would also contain them, as it will also include (I hope) core datasets and some Tables and graphs. I will raise my own questions on Monday - have a good weekend. Mike 4092. 1998-05-18 10:00:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 18 May 1998 10:00:38 +0100 from: Trevor Davies subject: goldman-sachs to: j.palutikof@uea,p.jones@uea,m.hulme@uea Jean, We (Mike H) have done a modest amount of work on degree-days for G-S. They now want to extend this. They are involved in dealing in the developing energy futures market. G-S is the sort of company that we might be looking for a 'strategic alliance' with. I suggest the four of us meet with ?? (forgotten his name) for an hour on the afternoon of Friday 12 June (best guess for Phil & Jean - he needs a date from us). Thanks. Trevor ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Professor Trevor D. Davies Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ United Kingdom Tel. +44 1603 592721 Fax. +44 1603 507784 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 3486. 1998-06-02 15:18:26 ______________________________________________________ cc: nth@WPO.NERC.AC.UK, rcpad@WPO.NERC.AC.UK date: Tue, 02 Jun 1998 15:18:26 +0100 from: Geraint Webber subject: PALAEOCLIMATE PROPOSAL to: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Dr Briffa Dr Neville Hollingworth has asked me to formally invite you on behalf of ESTB to become a member of a small working group which is being set up to develop a Palaeoclimate proposal. Your name was suggested by the Earth Science & Technology Board as a potential member due to your expertise and research into climate change. Following the May ESTB meeting it was decided to meet with the Atmospheric Science community in order to consider furthering the proposal via a brainstorming meeting. A draft palaeoclimate proposal was produced following a discussion between Professor Boulton, Professor Lowe, Professor Shackleton and the office secretariat during Geoscience *98 in Keele and was discussed at the May ESTB meeting. The Board felt that - the proposal lacked a significant novel component. In attempting to interface the geological climate record with the modelling activities of the atmospheric community, it would be necessary to establish the historical data requirements needed to validate and populate the current and proposed new climate prediction models. The geological record is essential to exploring timescales and changes from non-linear (but predictable) to chaotic climatic conditions. The Chief Executive pointed out that the key drivers of climate research will probably arise from the Kyoto summit and include carbon budgets, regional climate prediction, biogeochemical cycles, with the palaeoclimate record per se probably lower down the list of priorities. Linking the ancient record to the modelling criteria will therefore be essential. With the above in mind I would be grateful if you could: a) confirm whether you would be willing to become involved in the palaeoclimate proposal and its possible development as a joint board bid (with ASTB). (A copy of the draft proposal is attached for your reference and comments are welcome); and if so, b) confirm by Monday 8th June any free dates in your diary for an am or pm meeting between now and June 18th. The venue will be London or Swindon. Relevant papers will be circulated as soon as a date is fixed. For your information, the following individuals have been invited onto the working group: Prof N Shackleton (Godwin Lab, Cambridge) Prof J Lowe (Geography, Royal Holloway) Dr P Gibbard (Plant Sciences, Cambridge) Prof M Pilling (Chemistry, Leeds & ASTB Chairman) Dr K Briffa (Environmental Sciences, Climatic Research Unit, UEA) Dr P Valdes (Meteorology, Reading) Should you wish to discuss further details please contact the ESTB secretariat - Dr Roger Padgham or Dr Neville Hollingworth on 01793 411573 or 411527 respectively. Yours sincerely Geraint Webber *********************************** Mr Geraint Webber Earth Science & Technology Board Science Programmes Directorate Natural Environment Research Council Polaris House North Star Avenue SWINDON SN2 1EU 01793 411687 (Direct Line) 01793 411545 (Fax) ************************************ begin 644 DRAFT_GB.WPD M_U=00PT.```!"@(!`````@4```"L,`````(``#Q45C>3F-*Q6*J:OE?4L[]S M2$F$;0,JG^ZL9OT<2,2SM,QQ-K.WKM:--^:XEBAWCP5*B6#4>0\I/!B88CZZ MP[U-9#,7Y**W=E5<>J3%C*"Z6<**64^Z?L,,PI:WM+^83\%B'F"-^X3OWT]) MKM+\[`=[33*FJKGWJQ/<;OHK\5 M=Q)J..:>[,D5O0U2I"+OA>\GL!]H-0YSW:U'2J.+P[`5,-+N1!K)$"E"57CY MJ.UE#_[B&A&\GAK2M#,Q0/B1<'>9:!X=WA#TDP$D=VQ>0YJ(PFMH\&&W703Z M:]>&ES&7"VOE:X/_)8W=D&Y\Q&59X2#!:ENZ?>]FJ^OF94FW2C2;TUC-%+UV M,=;/?;Y4"N0:Z>J+#IZ\5QPWUE.S/+:2]*U;A&CZZQ"Q<7+^QLLQOOEE>KT( M_MHOQB?I+P@\3T8/0P!VE#8U)E)OYXG8G,7YA`D=NGTZ?'.0^8FT^+`_Q&BN M&N[+O5GJ\=.B^/1`C1A-*+$[*1B$;F\ITWM+A\XIRFVQN@634HE98V,.*;S% MW;7)"1UIJ25>+\HV#("`"?D"`%<```````````````@C`0````L!``#"!@`` M`%4"````3@```,T'```))0$````&````&P@```LP`P```-H!```A"```"`4! 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I'm happy to participate. I would also be very interested in helping to formulate a joint Board bid arising out of this or similar subsequent meetings. As fo availablity , I can pretty much confirm that I could make any day within your stated range , provided it was not a weekend. It would help to have a few days notice. I have decoded the short draft proposal and will comment on it after having had a chance to consider it. yours sincerely Keith At 03:18 PM 6/2/98 +0100, Geraint Webber wrote: >Dear Dr Briffa > >Dr Neville Hollingworth has asked me to formally invite >you on behalf of ESTB to become a member of a small >working group which is being set up to develop a >Palaeoclimate proposal. Your name was suggested by the >Earth Science & Technology Board as a potential member >due to your expertise and research into climate change. > >Following the May ESTB meeting it was decided to meet >with the Atmospheric Science community in order to >consider furthering the proposal via a brainstorming >meeting. > >A draft palaeoclimate proposal was produced following a >discussion between Professor Boulton, Professor Lowe, >Professor Shackleton and the office secretariat during >Geoscience *98 in Keele and was discussed at the May >ESTB meeting. > >The Board felt that - the proposal lacked a significant >novel component. In attempting to interface the geological >climate record with the modelling activities of the >atmospheric community, it would be necessary to establish >the historical data requirements needed to validate and >populate the current and proposed new climate prediction >models. The geological record is essential to exploring >timescales and changes from non-linear (but predictable) >to chaotic climatic conditions. The Chief Executive pointed >out that the key drivers of climate research will probably >arise from the Kyoto summit and include carbon budgets, >regional climate prediction, biogeochemical cycles, with >the palaeoclimate record per se probably lower down the >list of priorities. Linking the ancient record to the modelling >criteria will therefore be essential. > >With the above in mind I would be grateful if you could: > >a) confirm whether you would be willing to become >involved in the palaeoclimate proposal and its possible >development as a joint board bid (with ASTB). (A copy >of the draft proposal is attached for your reference and >comments are welcome); and if so, > >b) confirm by Monday 8th June any free dates in your >diary for an am or pm meeting between now and June >18th. The venue will be London or Swindon. Relevant >papers will be circulated as soon as a date is fixed. 3546. 1998-06-05 02:06:10 ______________________________________________________ cc: ipcc@earth.usgcrp.gov date: Fri, 05 Jun 1998 02:06:10 -0500 from: Richard Moss subject: Part II, Agenda items 4 and 5 to: tgcia@meto.gov.uk TimesDear All: This is the third or three messages I am sending on the TGCIA email conference. This one contains a few observations on the TAR, as well as an attachment--the strawman outline for the WG II TAR, which was emailed to WG II participants in the scoping meeting earlier today (The attachment is a microsoft word file; if you have trouble opening it, please let me know and we will send it to you in another format, or by fax--just indicate you preferrences). As you will see when you review the outline, the strawman proposal is to organize the WG II TAR into three broad sections: 1) State of Science Update; 2) Regional Vulnerability Analyses; and 3) Global Integration and Synthesis. This form of organization is intended to respond to the mandate given the report by the IPCC at the Plenary Session last September in the Maldives, as well as to respond to information needs raised directly by a number of governments. Please note that this outline is not intended to provide fine detail of what is to be covered in each chapter. Indeed, the strawman outline should be viewed as a starting point for discussion of the overall purposes and structure for our part of the TAR. We fully expect that the outline will be modified substantially through the contributions of scoping meeting participants and other experts such as yourselves over the coming weeks and months. Note that a number of the TGCIA members will be at the scoping meeting, and that we expect additional members to be added to writing teams in the next phase of preparation of the report. WG II scoping participants will soon be starting an email conference of their own to provide their initial reactions to the strawman outline. The TGCIA's recommendations on the TAR will be provided to them, either as part of the conference (if they are ready in time), or as part of the background materials sent to participants before the meeting. In addition, I would welcome comments from you (addressed to rmoss@usgcrp.gov) on the outline. Comments on TGCIA Agenda Item 4., Recommendations for TAR Proposals made by various TGCIA members can be accommodated in this broad outline, providing that there is a consensus among scoping participants to do so. For example, were it to be determined that WG II should include material on scenarios, as Linda Mearns has suggested, this material could be housed in the state of science evaluation of methods (chapter 2); Mike Hulme's suggestion to include a detailed description of the scenarios used in the regional vulnerability assessments could be included as part of the chapter describing the framework and methods used in conducting this assessment (chapter 5). My own view of this debate is that to the extent that the issue is evaluating methods for use in creating scenarios, the material covering this point should be included in WG I, as this is really their domain. The scenarios information in WG II should be limited to assessing application of these techniques in impacts analysis. Regarding the suggestion for study regions in the TAR, I agree that this should be discussed at the scoping meeting. However, I am personally skeptical that we will actually be able to do a very complete job of this in the TAR, but should begin to plan now, so that we might be ready to take this on in the Fourth Assessment Report. Additional Item: Report on interactions with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A number of us (Cynthia Rosenzweig, Mike Hulme, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Arnulf Grubler, Tsuneyuki Morita, Hugh Pitcher, and myself--I hope I haven't left anyone out) have interacted over the last months in order to coordinate preparation of socio-economic scenarios for use in the IPCC TAR. The need to do this obvious--the climate/ socio-economic scenarios for impacts analysis that we are providing through the DDC should be as consistent as possible with the descriptions of "not implausible" potential future states of the world being developed by SRES to project emissions. >From the TGCIA perspective, cooperation with SRES is essential, for at the moment, we have no other option for generating updated socio-economic scenarios to accompany the climate scenarios on the DDC. Note that we have made the socio-economic projections underlying the IS92 scenarios (rather simple spreadsheets) available on the DDC. In addition, we have also included the baseline data that were produced by the WG II TSU for use in the Special Report on the Regional Impacts of Climate Change. At the last meeting of the SRES lead authors and modeling groups, we reached agreement that SRES modeling teams would be providing data from their modeling runs on the DDC website, as follows: Time slices Symbol… Times2020s Symbol… Times2050s Symbol… Times2100 Socio-economic scenario sets to be provided Symbol… TimesNew 1999 scenarios, representing each of the four storylines Regions Symbol… TimesReport results at the regional level of detail in the particular model used (this is more detailed than highly aggregated level of reporting that will be used in the SRES itself) Variables (source in parentheses--note that some variables, such as those in I., are standardized input assumptions, while others are produced by the integrated models used to generate the emissions scenarios) I. Demographic (use UN projections at national level?) I.1 Total Population I.2 Assumed annual growth rate for the period I.3 Population density I.4 Percentage population working age I.5 Percentage population urban I.6 Percentage population in coastal margins II. Economic variables (from IAMs) II.1 GDP/capita II.2 Assumed annual GDP growth rate II.3 Percentage population employed in agriculture II.4 Rate of growth of labor-force productivity III. Biophysical resource base (from IAMS) III.1 Gross caloric output/person to meet typical daily diet III.2 Land use (land under production for biomass energy?) III.3 Water availability per capita (with GCM community) I would like to ask Mike Hulme to comment on this hurriedly assembled report, as he was at the last day of the SRES meeting (I had to leave early to attend another meeting) and may have more detailed information on exactly when these data are expected to be made available. I would also hope that Mike might comment on the extensive discussions regarding which of the initial SRES results are expected to be made available to climate modeling groups. These were only completed on the last day of the meeting as well. Closing In closing, let me again thank Martin Parry and all TGCIA members who participated for their comments. The TGCIA has made an excellent contribution to the IPCC and the TAR because of all your efforts. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WG_II_outline_3June98.doc" 3515. 1998-06-05 15:04:07 ______________________________________________________ cc: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, batterbu@spot.Colorado.EDU date: Fri, 5 Jun 1998 15:04:07 -0600 (MDT) from: Batterbury Simon subject: Sahel comments to: andrew , Judy Longbottom , camilla.toulmin@iied.org, mikemortimore@compuserve.com, a.h.scott@sussex.ac.uk I have received the following intriguing set of comments from Gerti and Han at Leiden about the Sahel meeting. I agree with a lot of what was said and I apologize for not including the Bank in our discussions and guestlist (although I did try). I have highlighted a couple of points where they might be incorrect. And of course IIED is working on the land tenure issue right now, as Mike M is doing on the agriculture point. I am still deep in trying to write up the meeting and will try and accommodate some of this. Any response needed from Mike (Hulme) on the climate issue? They are trying to push for future research areas, and see climate as important as a major issue where we need to more work. Simon B *************** Sahel conference remarks - by Han van Dijk Gerti Hesseling Leiden - African Studies Centre The first day of the conference a kind of state of the art overview was given of past and current research on the Sahel. It gave a broad overview of high level and local level perspectives, and of agro-ecological to socio-economic approaches. However, what was missing in this overview was a very important stakeholder in research and development, the World Bank. The world Bank is very efficient in picking all kind of new trends and buzz words, developed in the research community, flavouring them with World Bank jargon, and baking new concepts into a new World Bank neo-classical economic cake. In fact the World Bank is more important for setting the research agenda than any of us present at the conference. In the first place World Bank concepts are dominantly normative instead of analytical, e.g. sustainability, equilibrium, carrying capacity, social structure, food security. These concepts indicate norms and describe reality as far as it deviates from the norms. The problem is that we cannot even think of ever reaching a situation in which life in the Sahel is adequately described by these norms. So, they are not useful for an analytical perspective, and even not from a policy point of view, i.e. if policy is meant to solve problems instead of encapsulating and perpetuating them. There is thus an urgent need to develop concepts with which we will be able to describe more adequately the extremely dynamic situation in semi-arid zones. The lessons learnt from the new range land ecology need to be translated into social science concepts, economic concepts, legal concepts. We should not focus on static indicators, but process indicators, which enable to analyse the drivers behind the dynamics of the Sahel. One of these process indicators we have not addressed is culture and the dynamics of ethnicity and inter-ethnic relations What is lacking then at present is a consistent and complete picture of how climate instability relates to all kinds of societal process at micro and meso-level. If we want to generate information that is useful for a more adequate reaction on calamities we need to focus on the interactions between nature and society from the perspective of instability, e.g. on: The relation between climatic instability and resource management; The reactions of regional economies to rainfall fluctuations; Climate instability, resource conflicts and administrative decentralisation; Changes in social relations with respect to social care and food entitlements; etc. Looking back at 25 years of research on the Sahel we have not done very well in this respect. We still lack insight into the fluctuations of food and livestock markets, though we have enormous piles of data. There is still an enormous lack of knowledge on decision-making of farmers and herdsmen in relation to the complex realities that they have to face. Our micro-economic models are getting better everyday, but we need also a large number of empirical research under real-life (thus unstable) conditions), done by very devoted observers. We have no idea of the role of micro-variability of soils, topography, and rainfall in agricultural production. [note from SB - they are incorrect here]. How to develop a new agronomic paradigm and a new kind of statistics to study these extremely complicated man-environment interactions. We have far too little studies on how people adapt rules of land tenure and regulate access to pastures under conditions of resource scarcity and how these local-level adaptations of rules and procedures interact with policy initiatives and state law. In particular we know too little about how people structure negotiations and what procedures they have developed for the transfer of rights of access to resources. Is security of tenure the only answer or do we need to focus on more dynamic arrangements of resource tenure? In view of pending (or non-pending) climate change it might be worthwhile to devote attention to migration of farmers and herdsmen and the factors which govern their decision-making. In particular we know very little about rural-rural migration, because these people escape all censuses and seem to disappear in the bush. [note from SB - they are incorrect here too!]. The urban question has been addressed many times in a quite positive perspective. This is fully justified if we look at the urban centres and the rural growth centres and if you focus on the entrepreneurial class, which thrives with political liberalisation. However, if we look at the polarisation between the northern and southern part of the Sahel, the picture is less positive. Market integration stops at the fourteenth parallel, let's say the frontier of the climatic Sahel, where no cash-crops can be grown and. Bad luck for the +12 million people living north of this line. There are indications that relatively speaking these areas are getting poorer. Literacy rates and child mortality rate are not improving here. Donor attention for these areas is declining. Rather they gamble on high-potential areas further south to go for fast success, to satisfy public opinion in the North. Political tension in these areas is on the increase again, and civil unrest may arise again. Within cities there is also a polarisation between the big mass of angry young men and women and the entrepreneurial class. Even in democratic countries like Mali corruption is on the increase again, and mismanagement of public resources continues. How are we going to integrate all these young people into the economy, so that they can lead a decent life? At present young people are postponing marriage and remain dependent on elders because there are no possibilities to get settled as their parents once were. This will inevitably lead to tensions and discontent, not only against the elders, who block their careers, but also against those in power. So three points have to be made The dominance of normative prescripts, born out of World Bank ideology encapsulating normative science; The need for better and more process indicators for the analysis of the relation between climatic instability and social and economic dynamics; Attention on polarisation as a threat to social and political instability in the long run ************** Simon Batterbury visiting lecturer Department of Geography Campus Box 260 University of Colorado, Boulder CO 80309-0260 USA tel. 303 492 5388 fax. 303 492 7501 email batterbu@spot.colorado.edu Web http://www.colorado.edu/geography/people/faculty.html 702. 1998-06-08 16:16:48 ______________________________________________________ cc: g.boulton@ed.ac.uk, NTH@WPO.NERC.AC.UK, RCPAD@WPO.NERC.AC.UK date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 16:16:48 +0100 from: Geraint Webber subject: PALAEOCLIMATE WORKING GROUP MEETING - WED 17 JUNE to: NJS5@cam.ac.uk, plg1@cus.cam.ac.uk, rbattarb@geog.ucl.ac.uk, P.J.Valdes@reading.ac.uk, j.lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear colleague I can now confirm that the Palaeoclimate Working Group meeting will take place on the morning of Wednesday 17 June, at Henrietta Street, London. It is anticipated that the meeting will finnish with lunch. Those available to attend are: Professor R Battarbee, UCL Dr K Briffa, UEA Dr P Gibbard, Cambridge Professor N Shackleton, Cambridge Dr N Hollingworth and/or Dr R Padgham of ESTB. Professor J Lowe, RHUL and Dr P Valdes, Reading are both unavailable, but are willing to be involved. Professor Boulton (Chair of ESTB) and a member of ASTB may also possibly be attending, if available. Should your availability change please inform me as soon as possible. Papers will follow shortly. Any queries should be addressed to Dr Neville Hollingworth (01793 411527, nth@wpo.nerc.ac.uk). Yours sincerely Geraint Webber *********************************** Mr Geraint Webber Earth Science & Technology Board Science Programmes Directorate Natural Environment Research Council Polaris House North Star Avenue SWINDON SN2 1EU 01793 411687 (Direct Line) 01793 411545 (Fax) ************************************ 1810. 1998-06-09 10:57:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Jun 9 10:57:54 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: to: Eugene Vaganov Eugene thankyou for the data. I will produce an RCS curve and a 'age-banded' chronology for comparison. I am currently working on our version of the degree day reconstructions for Russia but am still having problems sorting out the data - rationalising Fritz, and yours and Stepan's data in the same file. Meanwhile I hope you are well . Keith At 11:57 PM 6/8/98 +0400, you wrote: >To: Keith Briffa >To: Fritz Schweingruber > >Dear Keith, >there is a set of absolutely dated 115 trees for Taymir (-212-1996 yy.) (13 additional to >last one). One tree about 800 year old dated-397 y. (start) doesn't finished yet and >will be send later. Several additional chronologies are measured too. We >focus now on measurements because a lot of material. >Regards, Gene > > [] DENDROCHRONOLOGY PROGRAM LIBRARY Run 1998 Program COF 11:30 Tue 09 JUN 1998 Page 1 > [] P R O G R A M C O F E C H A Version 2.04P 23172 > QUALITY CONTROL AND DATING CHECK OF TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS > > File of DATED series: 1998-(115 series) > > File of UNDATED series: KTU244ddd > > RUN CONTROL OPTIONS SELECTED VALUE > 1 Cubic smoothing spline 50% wavelength cutoff for filtering > 32 years > 2 Segments examined are 50 years lagged successively by 25 years > 3 Autoregressive model applied A Residuals are used in master dating series and testing > 4 Series transformed to logarithms Y Each series log-transformed for master dating series and testing > 5 Critical correlation, 99% confidence level .3281 > 6 Master dating series saved N > 7 Ring measurements listed N > 8 Parts printed 1578 > 9 Absent rings included in master series N > > Title of data: 08APR1997 (101 series) + 14MART1998 (1 ser.) + 08JN1998 (13 series) = 115 serie > Time span of Master dating series is -212 to 1996 2209 years > Continuous time span is -212 to 1996 2209 years > Portion with two or more series is -157 to 1994 2152 years > > **************************************** > *C* Number of dated series 115 *C* > *O* Master series -212 1996 2209 yrs *O* > *F* Total rings in all series 32858 *F* > *E* Total dated rings checked 32801 *E* > *C* Series intercorrelation .755 *C* > *H* Average mean sensitivity .510 *H* > *A* Segments, possible problems 0 *A* > **************************************** > > ABSENT RINGS listed by SERIES: (See Master Dating Series for absent rings listed by year) > > KTU243me 6 absent rings: 21 31 106 209 216 338 > ktu255me 6 absent rings: 6 34 180 209 216 552 > ktu258me 2 absent rings: 159 180 > KTU254me 1 absent rings: -12 > KTU262dd 4 absent rings: 209 216 347 380 > KTU239dd 8 absent rings: 233 330 536 537 543 552 690 707 > KTU252dd 2 absent rings: 301 338 > KTU240dd 1 absent rings: 338 > KTU247dd 15 absent rings: 682 683 690 707 743 756 780 815 826 834 854 855 870 883 884 > K165 1 absent rings: 180 > K201 4 absent rings: 301 682 690 854 > K192 1 absent rings: 536 > K185 1 absent rings: 536 > K168 3 absent rings: 536 690 780 > K189 5 absent rings: 545 682 690 711 854 > K180 1 absent rings: 690 > K18! 1 absent rings: 854 > K181 2 absent rings: 854 855 > K199 1 absent rings: 1151 > M705 2 absent rings: 903 945 > K202 9 absent rings: 1309 1317 1334 1335 1336 1338 1345 1347 1350 > M723 3 absent rings: 1151 1173 1196 > M710 4 absent rings: 1129 1216 1237 1259 > K115 12 absent rings: 1393 1468 1515 1523 1529 1533 1541 1547 1555 1576 1696 1735 > K052 1 absent rings: 1642 > M712 4 absent rings: 1475 1523 1576 1589 > K034 1 absent rings: 1622 > K036 2 absent rings: 1642 1779 > X002 13 absent rings: 1533 1589 1622 1642 1699 1718 1735 1807 1812 1825 1830 1899 1912 > R221 5 absent rings: 1589 1869 1899 1974 1989 > R021 3 absent rings: 1681 1699 1714 > D011 4 absent rings: 1699 1807 1819 1869 > N231 4 absent rings: 1699 1825 1838 1885 > N131 5 absent rings: 1702 1812 1819 1825 1989 > X005 2 absent rings: 1718 1830 > D007 1 absent rings: 1869 > D013 2 absent rings: 1927 1989 > M714 1 absent rings: 1807 > R071 3 absent rings: 1779 1830 1899 > D008 2 absent rings: 1869 1989 > K211 8 absent rings: 1812 1819 1825 1830 1833 1849 1869 1873 > N211 1 absent rings: 1885 > R311 1 absent rings: 1869 > N011 1 absent rings: 1885 > D001 1 absent rings: 1899 > > 160 absent rings .487% > > PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 11:30 Tue 09 JUN 1998 Page 5 > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years > Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position > > Seq Series Time_span -175 -150 -125 -100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 > -126 -101 -76 -51 -26 -1 24 49 74 99 124 149 174 199 224 249 274 299 324 349 > --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- > 1 KTU243me -212 421 .61 .65 .65 .66 .77 .78 .83 .91 .76 .64 .70 .79 .86 .85 .82 .77 .76 .82 .81 .77 > 2 ktu255me -157 639 .59 .64 .69 .64 .65 .72 .79 .87 .86 .83 .70 .65 .80 .84 .79 .78 .77 .84 .85 .82 > 3 ktu258me -135 416 .66 .67 .73 .72 .63 .75 .87 .79 .75 .71 .71 .79 .85 .82 .77 .56 .58 .75 .82 > 4 KTU265me -126 82 .64 .65 .76 .85 .80 .80 .85 .76 .71 > 5 KTU254me -81 96 .61 .59 .71 .81 .86 .77 .70 > 6 KTU260me -3 300 .69 .71 .50 .41 .74 .76 .84 .91 .89 .81 .81 .81 .81 > 7 KTU262dd 86 482 .38 .57 .78 .82 .80 .85 .82 .82 .82 .83 > 8 KTU239dd 122 777 .71 .71 .82 .61 .42 .58 .71 .80 .82 > 9 KTU261 240 420 .80 .86 .76 .76 > 10 KTU252dd 267 420 .83 .81 .79 > 11 KTU240dd 303 488 .49 > 14 K106 72 425 .64 .66 .81 .81 .86 .85 .86 .88 .89 .88 .88 > 15 K170 118 465 .53 .71 .72 .70 .75 .78 .86 .86 .87 > 16 K165 138 439 .77 .79 .73 .55 .57 .71 .73 .74 > 17 K188 272 445 .79 .77 .75 > 18 K201 292 871 .75 .77 > PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 11:30 Tue 09 JUN 1998 Page 6 > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years > Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position > > Seq Series Time_span 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 650 675 700 725 750 775 800 > 374 399 424 449 474 499 524 549 574 599 624 649 674 699 724 749 774 799 824 849 > --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- > 1 KTU243me -212 421 .80 .71 .69 > 2 ktu255me -157 639 .80 .82 .87 .83 .70 .65 .74 .78 .86 .74 .59 .55 > 3 ktu258me -135 416 .87 .83 .82 > 7 KTU262dd 86 482 .91 .89 .87 .88 .68 .55 > 8 KTU239dd 122 777 .78 .78 .82 .78 .62 .60 .67 .72 .74 .78 .80 .70 .76 .84 .81 .69 .70 .75 > 9 KTU261 240 420 .85 .83 .82 > 10 KTU252dd 267 420 .65 .55 .62 > 11 KTU240dd 303 488 .57 .75 .69 .70 .74 .68 > 12 KTU247dd 513 890 .62 .77 .89 .85 .80 .84 .90 .91 .88 .80 .80 .81 .83 > 13 KTU248A 818 894 .84 > 14 K106 72 425 .89 .84 .80 .80 > 15 K170 118 465 .89 .86 .87 .85 .77 > 16 K165 138 439 .74 .79 .76 .76 > 17 K188 272 445 .78 .78 .83 .86 > 18 K201 292 871 .77 .82 .86 .81 .73 .68 .73 .83 .78 .79 .78 .75 .79 .88 .84 .69 .73 .88 .80 .74 > 19 K167 338 852 .80 .74 .75 .83 .76 .68 .72 .82 .79 .80 .86 .85 .88 .91 .88 .82 .81 .85 .85 .84 > 20 K197 346 444 .56 .61 .72 .69 > 21 K192 365 565 .48 .54 .77 .75 .64 .62 .68 .55 > 22 K185 371 593 .49 .56 .50 .54 .61 .59 .74 .79 .69 > 23 K207 456 806 .54 .47 .60 .79 .78 .67 .67 .60 .68 .84 .71 .68 .86 .85 > 24 K206 487 754 .56 .69 .85 .86 .87 .81 .82 .90 .94 .85 .82 > 25 K168 491 825 .61 .64 .80 .77 .75 .80 .88 .87 .84 .81 .87 .89 .84 .83 > 26 K205 493 741 .73 .77 .86 .88 .86 .77 .83 .91 .84 .73 > 27 K189 503 862 .77 .81 .70 .64 .60 .63 .75 .85 .80 .77 .86 .87 .80 > 28 K105 513 804 .55 .67 .65 .68 .75 .84 .89 .80 .73 .84 .85 .82 > 29 K183 548 785 .71 .79 .80 .83 .85 .89 .94 .79 .72 .77 > 30 K110 603 891 .57 .78 .87 .90 .89 .86 .86 .88 .87 > 31 K180 614 958 .67 .72 .78 .80 .80 .77 .83 .81 .82 > 32 K111 726 861 .65 .81 .87 .82 > 33 K208 735 953 .50 .59 .70 .68 > 34 K18! 742 1099 .68 .65 .44 .38 > 35 M919 746 975 .73 .77 .62 .57 > 36 K108 752 1015 .53 .73 .83 > 37 K181 755 906 .65 .74 .82 > 38 K203 764 853 .81 .85 .85 > 39 K085 782 1106 .63 .67 > 40 K198 805 1042 .74 > 41 K199 823 1172 .84 > PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: 11:30 Tue 09 JUN 1998 Page 7 > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years > Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position > > Seq Series Time_span 825 850 875 900 925 950 975 1000 1025 1050 1075 1100 1125 1150 1175 1200 1225 1250 1275 1300 > 874 899 924 949 974 999 1024 1049 1074 1099 1124 1149 1174 1199 1224 1249 1274 1299 1324 1349 > --- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- > 12 KTU247dd 513 890 .84 .85 > 13 KTU248A 818 894 .86 .92 > 18 K201 292 871 .85 > 19 K167 338 852 .85 > 27 K189 503 862 .84 > 30 K110 603 891 .86 .88 > 31 K180 614 958 .86 .86 .81 .87 .81 > 32 K111 726 861 .68 > 33 K208 735 953 .83 .84 .80 .83 .82 > 34 K18! 742 1099 .80 .90 .88 .88 .86 .86 .80 .76 .81 .79 > 35 M919 746 975 .66 .70 .76 .78 .65 .63 > 36 K108 752 1015 .87 .91 .87 .86 .84 .81 .81 > 37 K181 755 906 .86 .82 .75 > 38 K203 764 853 .84 > 39 K085 782 1106 .72 .77 .85 .88 .88 .89 .91 .87 .72 .75 .55 > 40 K198 805 1042 .84 .88 .84 .85 .85 .87 .90 .86 > 41 K199 823 1172 .83 .86 .91 .91 .91 .87 .84 .83 .81 .86 .85 .79 .85 > 42 K094 828 1225 .65 .77 .81 .80 .79 .86 .86 .68 .61 .73 .73 .68 .80 .82 .80 .80 > 43 K223 833 1035 .82 .86 .87 .84 .88 .91 .87 .89 > 44 K107 850 1175 .72 .80 .88 .90 .87 .83 .84 .79 .71 .75 .81 .65 .64 > 45 M705 864 1052 .77 .80 .83 .83 .77 .73 .63 .63 > 46 M923z 1004 1204 .50 .57 .61 .57 .66 .79 .77 .68 > 47 K176 1044 1232 .78 .81 .82 .79 .89 .86 .79 .78 > 48 K202 1050 1584 .74 .66 .64 .79 .85 .81 .66 .66 .82 .87 .88 > 49 M918z 1067 1235 .68 .72 .86 .91 .79 .74 .76 > 50 M723 1073 1213 .69 .71 .80 .89 .89 .76 > 51 K166 1074 1250 .49 .48 .70 .77 .79 .82 .82 .82 > 52 M710 1090 1288 .81 .82 .86 .82 .76 .71 .75 .62 > 53 M917 1103 1278 .70 .76 .78 .79 .83 .81 .79 > 54 K038 1151 1617 .61 .80 .85 .80 .81 .87 .91 > 55 M707 1154 1260 .80 .84 .76 .65 > 56 K009 1157 1626 .42 .56 .64 .76 .77 .71 .78 > 57 K012 1158 1550 .72 .75 .84 .82 .84 .86 .86 > 58 K040 1184 1600 .65 .76 .85 .90 .86 .89 > 59 K182 1212 1471 .72 .67 .62 .68 .80 > 60 K115 1229 1749 .64 .71 .75 .71 > 61 K052 1231 1861 .75 .72 .74 .81 > 62 K099 1270 1591 .63 .60 .76 > 63 K030 1281 1652 .74 .79 > 64 K109 1299 1500 .74 .74 > 65 K086 1324 1494 .64 > PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: 11:30 Tue 09 JUN 1998 Page 2 > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ > No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR > Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () > --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- > 1 KTU243me -212 421 634 23 0 .763 .28 1.05 .183 .764 .406 1.93 .226 -.020 1 > 2 ktu255me -157 639 797 32 0 .748 .25 .95 .154 .522 .545 1.96 .285 .001 8 > 3 ktu258me -135 416 552 22 0 .750 .28 1.49 .272 .832 .541 2.00 .345 -.013 1 > 4 KTU265me -126 82 209 9 0 .765 .34 1.60 .284 .737 .489 2.14 .361 -.015 1 > 5 KTU254me -81 96 178 7 0 .722 .38 1.23 .218 .478 .506 2.02 .379 -.045 1 > 6 KTU260me -3 300 304 13 0 .729 .30 1.10 .234 .709 .520 2.20 .399 -.026 1 > 7 KTU262dd 86 482 397 16 0 .740 .32 .92 .160 .437 .480 1.94 .313 -.013 1 > 8 KTU239dd 122 777 656 27 0 .725 .24 1.43 .168 .551 .543 2.20 .316 -.027 1 > 9 KTU261 240 420 181 7 0 .803 .36 1.80 .258 .703 .472 1.97 .327 -.024 1 > 10 KTU252dd 267 420 154 6 0 .728 .46 1.52 .253 .656 .423 1.97 .329 .016 1 > 11 KTU240dd 303 488 186 7 0 .645 .41 1.00 .167 .298 .378 1.90 .321 .014 2 > 12 KTU247dd 513 890 378 15 0 .825 .22 1.09 .183 .596 .707 2.05 .348 -.008 2 > 13 KTU248A 818 894 77 3 0 .867 .87 2.20 .428 .548 .437 1.92 .352 -.013 1 > > 14 K106 72 425 354 15 0 .819 .37 1.09 .193 .372 .515 2.07 .421 -.026 1 > 15 K170 118 465 348 14 0 .777 .30 1.40 .214 .716 .459 2.04 .337 -.014 1 > 16 K165 138 439 302 12 0 .715 .25 1.10 .166 .672 .475 2.04 .318 -.042 1 > 17 K188 272 445 174 7 0 .800 .24 .69 .132 .234 .574 1.97 .339 .009 1 > 18 K201 292 871 580 23 0 .790 .18 .56 .102 .353 .580 1.99 .355 -.003 1 > 19 K167 338 852 515 21 0 .816 .22 .70 .138 .480 .565 1.95 .269 -.020 1 > 20 K197 346 444 99 4 0 .622 .54 2.10 .319 .394 .478 2.31 .510 -.046 1 > 21 K192 365 565 201 8 0 .610 .42 1.45 .294 .742 .440 2.09 .361 -.027 2 > 22 K185 371 593 223 9 0 .612 .33 1.24 .244 .666 .569 1.99 .341 -.020 1 > 23 K207 456 806 351 14 0 .713 .27 .93 .148 .626 .404 1.88 .310 -.011 1 > 24 K206 487 754 268 11 0 .794 .30 .99 .211 .599 .542 1.96 .373 -.014 1 > 25 K168 491 825 335 14 0 .796 .24 1.15 .197 .613 .560 2.20 .344 .002 1 > 26 K205 493 741 249 10 0 .812 .27 1.10 .198 .476 .632 1.93 .317 -.003 1 > 27 K189 503 862 360 14 0 .752 .21 .86 .135 .640 .548 1.98 .294 -.005 1 > 28 K105 513 804 292 12 0 .750 .33 1.19 .206 .695 .449 1.86 .261 -.005 1 > 29 K183 548 785 238 10 0 .822 .40 1.00 .214 .393 .556 2.02 .299 -.005 1 > 30 K110 603 891 289 11 0 .828 .29 .83 .166 .466 .512 1.94 .359 -.001 1 > 31 K180 614 958 345 14 0 .796 .23 .96 .161 .569 .561 2.07 .332 -.007 1 > 32 K111 726 861 136 5 0 .739 .58 1.61 .323 .581 .468 1.97 .369 -.069 1 > 33 K208 735 953 219 9 0 .732 .35 .92 .208 .535 .526 1.98 .357 -.015 1 > 34 K18! 742 1099 358 14 0 .752 .22 1.00 .173 .697 .525 2.15 .341 -.030 1 > 35 M919 746 975 230 10 0 .670 .29 1.05 .210 .674 .570 1.89 .349 .043 1 > 36 K108 752 1015 264 10 0 .791 .34 1.30 .236 .729 .437 2.01 .366 -.027 1 > 37 K181 755 906 152 6 0 .756 .27 1.17 .239 .738 .536 2.13 .351 .003 1 > 38 K203 764 853 90 4 0 .816 .63 2.04 .393 .767 .361 1.98 .367 -.022 1 > 39 K085 782 1106 325 13 0 .760 .23 .85 .156 .615 .544 1.99 .356 -.004 1 > 40 K198 805 1042 238 9 0 .836 .22 .87 .156 .601 .522 2.05 .352 -.056 1 > 41 K199 823 1172 350 14 0 .851 .34 1.79 .288 .741 .562 1.96 .336 -.030 1 > 42 K094 828 1225 398 16 0 .759 .32 1.15 .230 .586 .571 1.98 .352 -.033 1 > 43 K223 833 1035 203 8 0 .860 .32 .88 .182 .618 .464 2.07 .400 -.023 1 > 44 K107 850 1175 326 13 0 .774 .24 .88 .143 .571 .467 2.01 .297 -.020 1 > 45 M705 864 1052 189 8 0 .748 .60 1.81 .289 .385 .471 2.06 .386 -.016 1 > 46 M923z 1004 1204 201 8 0 .631 .46 1.83 .322 .602 .432 2.21 .407 .026 1 > 47 K176 1044 1232 189 8 0 .822 .37 1.04 .242 .690 .519 2.01 .392 -.005 1 > 48 K202 1050 1584 535 21 0 .791 .24 1.23 .205 .718 .575 2.01 .293 .001 1 > Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ > No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR > Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () > --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- > 49 M918z 1067 1235 169 7 0 .796 .64 2.28 .470 .738 .473 2.02 .312 -.037 1 > 50 M723 1073 1213 141 6 0 .763 .48 2.19 .448 .848 .504 1.89 .323 -.039 1 > 51 K166 1074 1250 177 8 0 .721 .51 1.50 .360 .695 .451 1.97 .299 -.040 1 > 52 M710 1090 1288 199 8 0 .760 .36 1.60 .313 .622 .667 2.07 .404 -.002 1 > 53 M917 1103 1278 176 7 0 .753 .39 1.29 .251 .693 .451 1.97 .292 -.009 1 > 54 K038 1151 1617 467 18 0 .820 .18 1.03 .158 .629 .590 2.08 .367 -.027 1 > 55 M707 1154 1260 107 4 0 .744 .37 1.34 .195 .317 .492 2.00 .310 -.029 1 > 56 K009 1157 1626 470 19 0 .734 .24 .99 .177 .669 .520 2.24 .361 -.026 1 > 57 K012 1158 1550 393 16 0 .829 .32 1.29 .239 .677 .528 2.06 .313 -.033 1 > 58 K040 1184 1600 417 17 0 .801 .26 1.00 .182 .661 .537 1.99 .387 -.040 1 > 59 K182 1212 1471 260 10 0 .772 .29 .87 .175 .682 .452 2.05 .336 -.050 1 > 60 K115 1229 1749 521 20 0 .757 .14 .60 .091 .422 .652 2.18 .378 -.043 1 > 61 K052 1231 1861 631 25 0 .834 .16 .72 .114 .501 .578 2.05 .338 -.022 2 > 62 K099 1270 1591 322 13 0 .774 .29 1.05 .194 .591 .489 2.14 .381 -.014 1 > 63 K030 1281 1652 372 15 0 .830 .29 .94 .178 .447 .579 2.03 .341 -.011 1 > 64 K109 1299 1500 202 9 0 .782 .40 1.96 .356 .717 .517 2.21 .380 .002 1 > 65 K086 1324 1494 171 7 0 .783 .44 1.43 .244 .663 .373 2.02 .321 -.024 1 > 66 K028 1349 1679 331 14 0 .821 .26 1.59 .212 .735 .537 2.00 .338 -.020 1 > 67 K100 1355 1515 161 6 0 .824 .37 1.25 .222 .576 .462 2.07 .360 -.004 1 > 68 K098 1357 1530 174 7 0 .822 .38 1.07 .253 .558 .578 2.02 .373 .012 1 > 69 K043 1359 1819 461 18 0 .791 .23 1.02 .167 .721 .466 2.05 .353 -.007 1 > 70 K173 1359 1503 145 6 0 .619 .42 1.71 .254 .603 .440 2.06 .364 -.060 1 > 71 K035 1363 1819 457 18 0 .786 .23 .97 .158 .602 .514 2.12 .386 -.025 3 > 72 K187 1370 1474 105 4 0 .715 .44 1.38 .284 .623 .467 1.91 .364 -.040 1 > 73 K078 1391 1675 285 12 0 .699 .29 1.06 .196 .680 .386 2.31 .443 -.039 1 > 74 M712 1395 1614 220 9 0 .658 .23 1.35 .237 .869 .519 1.96 .338 -.005 1 > 75 K200 1396 1562 167 7 0 .711 .35 1.15 .215 .543 .491 2.08 .451 .000 1 > 76 K034 1402 1794 393 15 0 .799 .31 .90 .170 .450 .532 1.99 .308 -.031 2 > 77 K004 1403 1994 592 23 0 .708 .22 .57 .100 .659 .316 1.97 .222 -.022 1 > 78 K026 1404 1822 419 16 0 .772 .30 1.39 .271 .695 .572 2.15 .388 -.033 1 > 79 K184 1409 1551 143 6 0 .758 .74 2.50 .532 .724 .423 1.95 .372 .002 1 > 80 K048 1429 1799 371 14 0 .815 .26 .90 .149 .411 .568 2.02 .318 -.020 1 > 81 K036 1442 1797 356 14 0 .849 .24 .94 .139 .342 .615 2.16 .366 -.026 1 > 82 K104 1463 1673 211 8 0 .735 .29 1.27 .233 .758 .499 2.11 .421 -.012 1 > 83 X002 1487 1986 500 20 0 .765 .20 .74 .115 .409 .558 2.03 .301 -.020 1 > 84 K010 1529 1678 150 6 0 .793 .38 1.67 .287 .489 .644 2.05 .395 -.034 1 > 85 K103 1538 1810 273 11 0 .695 .25 .80 .162 .605 .458 2.03 .380 -.022 1 > 86 K027 1552 1807 256 10 0 .789 .29 .81 .145 .183 .560 2.16 .377 -.013 1 > 87 R221 1559 1990 432 17 0 .750 .24 .87 .135 .554 .485 1.94 .337 -.023 1 > 88 K164 1597 1795 199 8 0 .774 .28 .88 .184 .590 .483 2.04 .368 -.052 1 > 89 K102 1611 1767 157 6 0 .743 .37 1.16 .239 .618 .493 2.00 .349 -.036 3 > 90 R021 1622 1990 369 15 0 .665 .39 1.36 .231 .491 .498 1.90 .298 -.033 1 > 91 K068 1628 1927 300 12 0 .709 .35 1.15 .219 .594 .435 2.14 .379 -.034 1 > 92 D011 1637 1991 355 14 0 .717 .23 .61 .118 .494 .493 1.98 .315 -.044 1 > 93 N231 1648 1990 343 14 0 .714 .32 1.14 .199 .452 .590 2.07 .352 -.022 1 > 94 N131 1651 1990 340 13 0 .657 .29 1.16 .224 .748 .521 1.95 .297 -.016 1 > 95 X005 1658 1986 329 13 0 .738 .30 .87 .166 .493 .486 1.90 .268 -.023 1 > 96 K005 1684 1994 311 12 0 .756 .32 1.00 .191 .676 .449 2.14 .350 -.026 1 > Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\ > No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR > Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr () > --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- > 97 R101 1700 1990 291 11 0 .668 .46 1.48 .252 .477 .464 2.01 .353 -.036 1 > 98 D007 1705 1991 287 11 0 .630 .27 .90 .158 .807 .331 2.13 .344 -.064 1 > 99 D013 1709 1991 283 11 0 .745 .31 1.25 .245 .792 .481 1.83 .249 -.028 1 > 100 M714 1710 1921 212 8 0 .659 .31 1.15 .209 .678 .454 1.99 .339 -.033 1 > 101 R071 1718 1990 273 11 0 .700 .35 1.32 .192 .320 .540 1.95 .283 .019 1 > 102 D015 1733 1991 259 10 0 .803 .37 1.10 .234 .770 .417 1.76 .263 -.042 1 > 103 D008 1734 1991 258 10 0 .739 .29 .91 .156 .604 .414 2.00 .293 -.045 1 > 104 R031 1760 1990 231 9 0 .681 .43 1.27 .232 .592 .379 2.17 .372 -.030 3 > 105 K211 1769 1996 228 9 0 .674 .23 .94 .153 .556 .615 2.12 .349 .005 2 > 106 N211 1777 1990 214 8 0 .641 .41 1.30 .246 .482 .511 2.07 .357 -.001 1 > 107 R311 1783 1990 208 8 0 .690 .29 .76 .169 .725 .353 1.97 .333 -.038 1 > 108 N011 1787 1990 204 8 0 .658 .29 .91 .190 .622 .510 2.06 .358 -.021 1 > 109 X008 1843 1986 144 6 0 .801 .60 1.69 .333 .516 .460 1.94 .325 -.030 1 > 110 X010 1850 1986 137 5 0 .701 .62 1.89 .349 .503 .408 2.10 .320 -.004 2 > 111 N-68 1855 1990 136 5 0 .642 .33 .85 .189 .524 .496 2.06 .422 .043 1 > 112 N081 1860 1990 131 5 0 .592 .37 1.42 .225 .468 .421 2.23 .417 .109 1 > 113 D001 1883 1991 109 4 0 .732 .56 1.47 .308 .610 .493 1.96 .339 -.018 1 > 114 N-70 1924 1990 67 3 0 .594 .44 1.17 .237 .397 .428 2.14 .479 -.101 1 > 115 N-54 1934 1990 57 2 0 .522 .44 1.10 .197 .347 .406 2.23 .460 -.021 1 > --- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -- > Total or mean: 32858 1307 0 .755 .30 2.50 .199 .590 .510 2.31 .338 -.019 > > > - = [ COFECHA 1998 COF ] = - >08APR1997 (101 series) + 14MART1998 (1 ser.) + 08MAY1998 (13 series) = 115 serie > 634=N -212=I KTU243me -2(26F3.0)~ > 23 24 42 14 27 21 13 28 20 30 38 65 58 54 66 65 16 55 46 56 53 68 29 21 48 15 > 29 25 32 22 31 29 18 27 53 41 35 47 66 89 52 28 34 39 33 25 28 36 32 43 47 63 > 49 49 50 65 49 44 40 56 33 28 55 49 50 26 21 41 9 21 34 46 54 29 47 37 30 52 > 56 46 35 44 71 53 73 87 75 65 45 48 63 37 32 30 41 32 37 49 37 60 62 57 55 79 > 46 91 56 92 74 62105 90 54 64 77 38 52 78 86 58 72 70 76 65104 55 56 36 67 28 > 39 51 48 43 56 82 76 67 61 34 32 24 54 34 69 50 49 36 79 90 63 72 75 80 62 39 > 48 40 51 55 52 53 55 51 55 57 45 36 41 46 3 30 55 45 42 32 36 40 50 27 16 41 > 19 28 40 41 30 22 8 17 26 23 26 19 21 27 15 18 11 20 13 22 9 24 17 20 22 11 > 28 16 22 21 13 14 19 24 37 21 1 18 14 14 9 14 10 16 17 4 18 20 13 16 17 0 > 18 12 13 18 10 9 12 12 5 0 18 12 2 23 6 9 7 7 12 12 17 16 8 13 5 14 > 13 9 15 14 16 17 14 16 18 10 17 19 32 28 23 20 18 23 10 26 14 25 24 16 22 26 > 19 19 32 28 20 20 30 35 30 24 30 22 20 21 30 30 23 27 27 26 17 21 32 27 19 19 > 23 20 20 23 18 10 0 13 6 2 19 11 8 10 12 9 12 10 13 15 15 21 28 20 14 30 > 20 24 25 32 36 33 22 7 16 20 24 7 5 9 17 10 10 13 18 9 6 15 17 23 19 16 > 12 18 21 34 27 23 34 17 37 33 19 12 20 26 16 23 28 19 5 26 20 15 26 18 22 10 > 17 21 5 5 9 15 19 19 6 14 7 16 12 20 8 24 21 23 15 21 15 7 13 10 15 12 > 13 13 7 7 8 0 3 13 8 19 9 12 0 12 12 6 10 13 20 13 9 12 8 17 12 15 > 21 23 14 10 11 20 24 18 23 18 30 19 16 13 17 31 22 32 31 41 36 29 41 34 21 10 > 25 25 25 23 23 24 17 21 20 26 20 25 31 25 40 6 25 28 20 14 25 15 26 14 30 25 > 45 36 49 32 27 35 20 15 18 34 31 23 22 29 44 21 11 31 28 12 21 20 27 14 21 21 > 19 16 23 26 25 43 29 24 24 22 17 21 11 19 30 15 25 25 33 40 40 31 15 19 24 27 > 27 37 37 27 0 15 12 3 15 20 17 26 19 6 12 15 16 3 10 17 18 17 23 14 20 6 > 18 20 26 24 32 45 26 20 27 14 36 28 17 23 17 13 20 21 11 11 2 21 9 19 19 35 > 31 24 20 17 21 34 23 13 15 22 35 38 54 41 54 24 50 52 27 20 21 21 13 32 19 28 > 24 13 26 41 54 41 47 31 34 21 > 797=N -157=I ktu255me -2(26F3.0)~ > 47 31 40 53 74 23 33 55 32 39 23 28 60 4 24 44 28 54 31 48 45 16 32 17 4 16 > 16 34 50 72 61 53 38 33 55 34 45 58 70 82 52 59 68 51 40 95 68 37 68 44 90 72 > 90 44 43 66 42 22 57 76 35 40 44 65 38 45 38 35 35 54 43 62 29 49 14 27 25 5 > 22 25 50 37 29 24 9 5 7 31 9 17 2 9 10 26 21 23 34 33 32 39 25 43 24 46 > 49 38 50 75 32 39 62 34 23 33 49 11 33 44 30 27 23 23 35 27 29 15 43 11 22 44 > 28 15 10 7 24 16 22 19 13 19 11 18 18 8 19 12 14 9 15 6 18 11 5 12 11 17 > 11 2 9 12 9 17 3 0 17 7 11 10 13 15 19 16 1 24 21 13 22 14 2 22 15 12 > 16 9 16 19 31 8 2 24 13 0 26 8 7 7 10 12 16 15 13 13 13 4 26 17 11 12 > 15 22 28 17 18 12 5 19 16 9 20 13 20 13 16 3 12 1 10 12 10 13 19 15 12 19 > 9 4 11 18 19 12 16 7 10 21 17 20 30 8 15 25 24 6 10 27 29 14 17 24 15 16 > 23 26 15 5 30 19 4 24 11 6 11 10 14 19 16 13 8 14 17 20 15 20 32 12 16 26 > 20 27 34 20 11 21 20 15 8 14 20 27 20 11 19 16 8 7 24 10 21 8 17 7 19 8 > 19 13 16 15 3 23 18 10 4 14 15 4 13 15 18 1 25 7 10 19 8 17 11 17 25 0 > 3 10 10 8 12 2 14 4 12 13 10 1 4 13 9 4 14 8 2 12 1 11 10 18 18 2 > 12 7 0 7 14 2 17 10 12 0 15 6 5 3 18 13 4 5 14 14 20 7 15 11 25 15 > 4 7 31 25 9 11 7 20 6 15 25 18 19 14 28 22 33 16 23 36 33 11 18 29 27 21 > 19 22 29 19 26 32 34 14 18 22 25 36 11 38 34 22 15 26 14 28 9 27 20 45 29 33 > 23 18 21 13 13 17 41 8 19 27 33 34 19 9 36 16 7 30 39 32 22 28 35 25 16 22 > 25 29 32 26 36 31 30 24 16 15 12 35 8 44 35 38 40 44 26 9 25 49 17 37 28 33 > 30 7 41 33 10 40 30 45 32 39 15 17 38 28 4 13 33 19 23 27 21 16 13 25 31 24 > 55 49 40 22 29 33 13 47 11 35 32 20 29 34 34 18 55 6 38 31 49 54 51 51 30 38 > 28 20 41 42 12 26 56 37 36 47 16 50 24 58 46 21 36 36 35 17 37 23 40 22 15 39 > 55 53 39 52 47 30 10 38 32 49 41 13 33 25 49 26 49 31 57 43 45 18 61 27 52 57 > 40 30 38 41 43 39 38 31 20 41 41 32 38 30 36 46 37 44 51 17 45 43 44 25 21 23 > 42 35 47 33 37 16 39 11 29 27 31 46 30 36 34 39 28 33 24 42 50 23 42 49 31 38 > 37 20 36 36 16 25 33 53 26 41 5 39 28 24 26 13 50 23 31 21 28 17 42 19 16 35 > 23 45 33 40 25 57 43 33 56 6 37 12 35 25 7 50 36 2 4 16 43 19 12 35 6 12 > 16 19 34 26 34 21 25 0 21 43 20 37 32 30 50 29 16 25 35 39 28 28 30 20 43 41 > 15 26 19 17 18 35 16 46 56 46 38 15 39 28 31 42 25 32 27 48 32 56 18 47 31 21 > 15 10 16 25 22 16 14 22 23 19 19 20 21 19 18 10 9 22 21 17 18 14 8 22 15 25 > 13 18 15 27 6 13 12 9 8 10 16 18 16 9 15 18 22 > 552=N -135=I ktu258me -2(26F3.0)~ >109 87 48 63 59112 97113103 83 71 52 63 65 79 92 74126 76114 89 90120141121 83 >112 74149 93127 96 75121 97 85122125 67 92105 91112 90102106 88129114124 53 74 > 36 53 54 21 55 78 99107 86106 82 28 40 82 35 46 27 66 40 56 81 86 70 76 64 58 > 41 70 38 69 56 37 29 54 24 34 38 23 29 48 55 11 27 37 36 34 48 32 51 39 44 18 > 56 16 21 54 47 22 28 14 38 24 33 36 26 22 13 38 2 25 38 25 30 21 34 15 32 25 > 11 37 30 41 28 19 16 32 26 36 19 2 23 14 18 15 18 24 30 18 2 20 28 23 30 27 > 1 35 23 15 25 15 24 20 25 12 8 48 29 7 37 17 20 15 29 15 29 24 17 19 7 2 > 31 18 14 12 18 22 26 17 16 20 9 26 20 12 29 10 18 9 22 5 23 4 24 21 12 17 > 28 19 22 29 26 9 18 22 19 15 22 6 4 20 9 12 17 2 9 15 13 4 5 20 11 11 > 12 18 15 23 15 17 10 2 25 6 5 26 18 4 6 6 16 12 16 22 19 24 27 31 24 18 > 31 13 11 20 13 23 18 11 2 13 10 16 2 6 9 10 4 9 8 9 7 5 15 4 17 5 > 18 4 23 11 34 11 14 19 0 20 17 9 3 11 14 4 12 9 16 2 19 3 5 10 3 13 > 7 13 14 0 2 4 13 12 12 5 18 6 13 15 12 6 12 9 17 9 9 10 2 24 5 6 > 9 14 22 10 9 16 3 14 14 6 23 18 18 3 19 13 14 11 23 28 16 15 19 13 25 7 > 14 16 23 19 6 8 16 14 6 16 4 13 5 15 10 16 14 10 18 12 18 16 15 16 24 7 > 13 16 9 18 19 27 33 28 27 34 30 11 13 17 20 27 11 17 27 18 17 25 6 26 14 31 > 20 44 36 29 19 12 11 15 6 8 29 20 23 27 25 33 22 8 29 14 8 14 36 21 25 20 > 34 20 19 24 21 20 23 23 21 18 22 19 13 11 7 28 2 30 23 23 33 25 20 5 11 28 > 7 28 23 25 22 8 20 25 11 31 33 24 16 21 2 12 24 14 5 11 28 24 18 27 20 12 > 6 21 31 32 26 30 23 19 17 22 6 32 18 11 17 12 22 16 17 6 26 5 12 15 21 23 > 26 39 19 12 15 12 23 18 11 16 35 25 19 23 15 25 11 19 20 12 15 25 30 14 24 12 > 16 11 5 20 23 33 > 209=N -126=I KTU265me -2(26F3.0)~ > 42 41 43 49 34 27 20 20 26 16 17 30 22 22 31 34 23 31 30 59 54106 54 45 75 70 > 36 64 98 36 59 71112 65 25 62101130155160115 62 93 24 69 53 15 42 55 81100135 >110 67 56 55115 42 77 27 37 33 53 56 51 52 52 67 69 50 73 35 56 44 26 43 61 26 > 29 49 24 17 45 45 5 35 45 31 36 27 32 41 43 30 12 61 18 26 54 50 34 26 17 44 > 48 28 22 16 20 32 27 22 17 22 11 16 12 24 16 20 22 12 20 24 34 25 18 18 23 33 > 42 17 1 22 17 16 9 22 23 23 20 4 18 32 23 25 31 1 39 12 10 19 8 23 18 27 > 8 7 29 13 5 26 2 5 5 9 7 13 7 12 5 3 2 15 6 10 8 13 11 13 20 18 > 15 6 8 16 14 35 15 20 14 15 5 14 2 13 18 9 19 24 14 18 24 17 12 17 21 22 > 32 > 178=N -81=I KTU254me -2(26F3.0)~ > 18 5 13 13 24 28 26 15 5 2 1 12 11 21 15 18 13 22 32 15 18 13 19 27 20 27 > 24 26 32 26 15 29 61 50 77 52 54 78123 25 45 52 48 39 62 86 94 61 35 6 36 15 > 23 50 46 30 23 10 40 50 66 63 44 55 30 44 21 11 12 0 16 17 35 44 67 64 29 55 > 47 50 43 20 24 44 57 80 65 6 31 44 38 27 49 53 75 74 22 64 57 19 37 48 7 43 > 45 33 43 28 43 54 56 23 14 57 52 19 64 33 20 29 47 44 42 79 87 40 57 16 41 40 > 17 19 25 50 39 42 73 79 38 77 42 44 51 40 29 38 35 15 41 6 36 33 23 52 48 83 > 76 89 29 16 43 49 63 36 39 20 27 64 46 62 70 15 28 41 50 7 12 22 > 304=N -3=I KTU260me -2(26F3.0)~ > 7 4 4 3 3 3 5 8 10 2 7 5 2 3 5 8 4 7 4 8 9 3 9 5 1 7 > 4 6 7 3 6 7 12 11 2 13 10 1 7 6 4 3 3 3 7 12 7 6 6 3 11 11 > 3 10 12 23 17 14 44 34 20 13 2 15 15 11 12 15 20 8 16 11 7 12 8 6 9 12 > 21 36 24 19 22 42 47 40 51 56 39 52 49 63 50 22 25 33 36 26 43 72 56 64 41 76 > 47 31 49 56 41 13 55 37 7 57 84 26 39 43 69 60 66 64 43 81 80 88 38 34 60 40 > 35 72 76 90110 78 49 63 82 87 18 20 16 47 38 30 48 53 50 53 97 76 83 57 81 58 > 78 52 97 81 57 78 34 96 59 54 21 41 51 22 48 61 62 8 35 15 23 46 32 69 36 46 > 57 6 14 26 49 37 46 37 71 37 26 29 39 15 36 36 33 17 31 17 7 22 9 12 19 23 > 33 9 11 6 1 5 17 4 20 9 13 1 20 11 5 7 22 19 12 8 21 17 31 11 20 9 > 24 16 4 16 35 34 22 28 16 26 13 27 21 14 32 37 38 24 34 46 52 55 71 28 27 52 > 36 32 38 15 30 23 28 26 32 12 18 29 28 63 12 28 36 21 21 23 16 29 12 4 43 84 > 44 33 44 27 23 12 12 16 30 12 14 24 25 27 17 1 34 20 > 397=N 86=I KTU262dd -2(26F3.0)~ > 8 15 20 31 38 47 24 19 45 49 68 48 34 19 32 18 31 46 38 24 8 21 49 36 51 33 > 22 32 40 63 49 32 38 39 41 42 45 29 38 52 36 51 76 65 92 79 49 28 51 45 55 17 > 13 19 25 34 22 31 40 58 46 39 26 34 25 40 25 30 36 72 48 37 58 28 60 74 49 23 > 38 45 29 45 38 34 2 34 26 14 32 19 48 30 44 37 5 29 47 47 48 52 21 52 18 24 > 32 22 14 36 23 25 15 20 20 4 10 8 10 14 21 30 17 16 18 0 10 25 7 21 12 13 > 0 23 20 12 12 38 30 20 28 27 22 49 12 26 21 24 18 9 17 39 35 14 24 12 32 19 > 31 23 18 32 25 33 26 44 40 36 37 34 17 19 40 32 29 32 21 29 19 24 26 28 16 22 > 35 40 80 34 56 76 45 41 60 45 71 20 54 45 84 52 51 47 42 58 40 32 20 62 23 36 > 60 53 54 24 22 65 39 20 24 55 58 34 84 63 72 38 49 51 50 55 38 30 51 35 41 32 > 18 29 74 20 62 53 53 42 55 35 12 15 40 23 34 32 45 29 10 24 41 14 34 45 39 30 > 33 0 17 28 26 8 12 39 43 40 33 23 19 7 26 44 43 41 52 61 37 23 36 4 53 22 > 25 30 20 21 31 23 7 43 0 36 23 30 43 43 48 39 37 23 15 44 34 18 19 48 35 29 > 35 16 47 16 31 34 19 27 29 27 11 31 24 31 16 16 23 30 35 30 35 28 21 2 20 30 > 37 31 14 24 20 40 14 26 21 25 28 24 6 36 19 36 38 22 16 22 26 22 27 14 22 10 > 19 25 23 6 39 20 15 32 25 30 8 18 21 26 31 18 19 13 26 20 16 11 8 23 24 14 > 10 36 20 23 21 16 26 > 656=N 122=I KTU239dd -2(26F3.0)~ > 69 41 37 53 79 56143 95 79 66 73 20 68 45 80 17 30 25 63 40 53 57 62 28 25 65 > 78 93 79 75 48 61 34 52 86 71 87 21 83 67 35 12 32 28 19 61 55 51 6 51 26 18 > 41 27 58 29 27 49 2 6 6 9 14 20 4 19 7 13 10 12 5 16 13 10 5 11 6 4 > 18 6 9 6 8 11 4 4 15 3 7 15 10 12 7 9 12 6 10 6 11 14 10 7 14 14 > 16 14 11 16 17 18 6 0 11 23 30 18 23 16 22 18 20 22 14 18 16 17 23 25 17 32 > 24 30 18 15 20 20 29 23 11 11 6 12 16 16 10 14 17 12 20 4 15 25 34 15 18 12 > 18 7 18 10 25 37 14 24 14 23 11 11 14 34 20 18 20 21 20 10 3 17 8 5 15 19 > 14 8 19 23 21 20 20 32 25 53 34 19 30 38 22 18 5 13 24 3 18 14 9 16 15 7 > 0 12 21 7 12 10 17 16 2 16 15 10 21 31 23 31 25 5 7 23 16 2 9 18 11 10 > 23 20 25 5 24 37 37 49 70 86 39 27 28 10 31 12 27 12 16 24 23 36 22 35 7 30 > 27 46 51 56 26 17 22 20 27 52 59 22 21 54 64 41 31 17 49 17 41 38 20 36 45 25 > 15 27 12 29 15 19 23 43 36 46 40 36 34 2 30 24 24 32 13 34 25 54 20 29 18 30 > 24 14 10 48 31 47 62 45 33 24 26 35 36 24 51 23 35 25 34 15 33 18 22 22 36 75 > 17 14 10 17 8 2 14 14 15 9 16 13 18 15 10 17 16 15 43 20 21 30 22 47 28 11 > 19 23 11 22 37 23 17 26 15 10 22 7 9 18 22 10 20 8 12 23 21 25 6 35 21 30 > 21 45 28 59 1 21 35 24 41 41 35 26 60 73 24 25 5 22 12 30 45 7 43 36 0 0 > 24 23 17 10 19 0 15 7 11 17 9 23 16 36 0 22 63 25 19 27 34 44 30 32 41 30 > 36 26 24 32 18 37 46 14 35 45 23 40 51 21 26 32 38 34 16 39 31 46 66 39 34 24 > 32 29 50 26 25 26 17 22 18 2 23 14 19 11 17 22 27 22 43 52 19 23 10 3 23 20 > 15 13 17 12 22 3 17 12 15 17 26 2 7 12 23 17 24 34 34 34 8 16 23 14 21 14 > 29 24 44 25 21 22 17 21 29 25 30 27 8 36 13 27 35 43 35 34 22 23 32 20 16 34 > 23 14 27 20 12 20 24 32 21 21 8 23 24 17 1 8 12 10 7 12 20 7 0 24 12 11 > 16 17 18 9 14 24 20 20 14 18 27 32 36 0 31 20 33 9 22 33 20 39 10 27 35 42 > 24 20 23 16 12 18 15 18 14 19 10 17 13 16 21 13 24 11 18 24 10 21 16 12 17 11 > 17 15 35 23 19 18 9 20 2 25 5 17 8 34 15 19 13 26 19 29 16 22 22 26 23 21 > 16 8 11 7 14 2 > 181=N 240=I KTU261 -2(26F3.0)~ >130 77 71 44 73104130180110101110 98 80 62 21 29 64 52 39 36 16 28 17 20 24 40 > 22 38 38 31 57 14 42 47 22 28 24 14 26 7 24 21 44 29 31 31 18 26 12 16 13 35 > 15 28 42 43 41 22 1 35 10 9 21 28 29 24 41 31 30 29 11 32 34 45 41 40 60 56 > 53 50 22 17 38 8 34 37 41 45 61 39 8 17 45 21 27 22 36 38 5 26 62 14 45 45 > 32 32 32 7 10 33 34 17 10 43 42 45100 62 29 25 59 92 63 52 67 85 60 44 59 17 > 55 39 46 31 21 24 27 33 14 47 1 19 22 36 38 39 37 30 30 18 12 30 31 12 21 41 > 34 38 39 22 36 14 16 20 11 36 29 19 17 21 13 16 6 7 12 19 25 18 24 22 18 > 154=N 267=I KTU252dd -2(26F3.0)~ > 66 63 62 96 45 60 74 64 60 74 54 60 36 66 68 77 56 54 45 49 56 47 36 40 55 36 > 40 54 50 68 37 23 52 23 0 21 33 42 31 33 32 35 25 36 42 36 30 32 35 33 22 24 > 33 14 18 42 18 40 35 35 42 48 36 31 56 70 48 59 76 54 30 0 26 36 10 21 25 20 > 22 20 2 16 32 24 13 22 43 36 35 37 19 40 26 34 54 63 60 58 45 58 50 79 61100 > 52 40 31 35 51 38 78 37 55 8 48 92134100 92 76 77 32 31 83152 99114 88 95116 > 39 24 33 44 20 45 32 37 60 58 44 31 53 30 26 17 1 18 24 41 32 39 40 26 > 186=N 303=I KTU240dd -2(26F3.0)~ > 31 46 20 31 44 61 29 38 59 59 37 40 39 35 39 38 43 13 15 38 39 33 58 45 62 65 > 69 70 64 48 71 60 54 43 19 0 11 20 16 39 35 31 64 56 27 42 80 64 20 42 36 31 > 41 59 22 29 13 29 52 38 44 62 68 57 77 40 20 45 29 36 35 33 45 50 96 34100 23 > 48 51 70 48 47 41 44 40 38 52 74 66 39 35 59 49 40 43 18 41 21 51 39 22 46 38 > 68 46 50 35 63 43 37 46 79 54 51 50 54 38 27 69 48 64 58 31 87 35 72 23 29 27 > 42 35 32 21 53 29 54 42 39 37 22 28 34 32 25 28 20 33 23 27 16 30 29 40 33 37 > 45 12 34 33 33 28 22 36 29 37 40 29 24 26 30 21 34 33 28 48 35 65 59 48 37 19 > 26 37 36 24 > 378=N 513=I KTU247dd -2(26F3.0)~ > 11 12 15 13 17 18 10 12 15 11 3 14 15 10 13 2 7 4 22 46 13 39 46 3 10 17 > 30 15 5 19 4 6 2 4 7 10 8 12 16 4 20 34 23 33 36 24 60 60 41 30 46 43 > 38 17 24 20 56 65 21 35 21 26 29 33 17 36 53 75 42 29 75 68 47 65 53 87 40 71 > 52 94 57109 98 36 40 44 8 47 66 79 49 47 72 53 48 67 45 37 44 37 26 37 47 49 > 58 45 26 63 19 79 44 36 51 70 10 6 19 26 14 23 19 25 23 9 21 35 23 27 22 24 > 15 39 19 36 46 20 34 32 19 30 26 2 29 3 30 54 49 40 26 13 31 41 19 40 43 22 > 9 39 19 23 30 38 46 25 19 2 18 24 23 0 0 21 18 13 16 26 2 0 26 24 18 20 > 22 23 9 16 19 10 16 6 30 14 39 21 0 34 24 19 2 30 7 9 25 6 19 32 20 22 > 5 23 14 2 21 15 11 13 13 13 11 7 22 16 22 18 9 15 26 13 43 18 0 21 18 15 > 2 38 42 26 7 4 26 2 28 0 9 21 28 13 9 13 28 17 26 11 23 29 5 21 16 11 > 14 12 11 21 4 14 15 0 23 9 21 7 33 23 29 30 32 53 8 33 36 17 13 23 4 22 > 13 7 20 2 15 3 7 13 2 4 13 5 19 4 10 5 0 8 12 14 16 17 9 3 15 7 > 12 0 5 7 15 25 18 11 22 0 5 11 7 16 4 27 50 23 13 26 9 5 14 19 11 17 > 6 8 19 0 0 11 17 3 8 6 3 14 13 2 10 14 11 9 10 0 1 7 12 11 5 2 > 9 18 13 23 6 14 0 0 20 13 11 10 5 14 > 77=N 818=I KTU248A -2(26F3.0)~ > 65 67 93 87 93 99 85110 37 88 90 59130120160140 76 51 85 73110 79150210220130 >170120 98150140170130 86 75100 11 38 80 95 57 55 41 83130 86 98 73100120 98130 > 25 93 57 95 55 55 24 74 85 82140 61 93 22 16 66 77 63 34 44 53 28 45 20 82 > 354=N 72=I K106 -2(26F3.0)~ > 27 33 43 32 40 66 50 43 60 68 26 43 35 26 46 43 44 55 24 20 33 44 31 42 63 64 > 68 49 84 56 45 81 73 62 11 72 44 24 54 71 23 38 24 47 45 29 52 35 69 72 62 44 > 48 79 56 48 97 91 69 82 42 28 39 49 50 35 21 52 88 56 38 58 67 53 41 88 48 67 > 43 69 41 88 57 79 86 89109 25 85 71 24 14 41 66 20 36 59 57 7 54 30 27 39 24 > 62 41 79 62 5 9 31 45 36 58 19 53 12 26 28 51 15 31 31 42 31 26 20 12 43 17 > 28 23 33 47 14 25 10 2 10 25 3 28 15 14 2 34 17 15 7 29 36 12 20 28 15 38 > 9 27 22 28 15 7 24 28 41 16 23 13 29 12 25 20 22 36 19 36 27 52 45 39 56 54 > 17 34 33 34 35 48 27 42 28 39 36 49 18 24 35 38 60 11 58 55 36 41 49 25 59 14 > 48 46 84 49 64 42 30 41 24 23 32 70 31 26 41 41 48 46 15 56 31 10 22 37 32 19 > 38 26 43 31 28 37 45 54 37 33 50 22 25 36 18 22 48 16 46 39 34 35 49 16 11 30 > 46 23 24 38 37 32 7 40 50 8 39 35 30 42 34 3 12 32 28 7 11 42 26 22 25 16 > 14 7 21 20 22 31 49 48 19 15 26 10 31 11 21 24 31 30 44 39 23 48 10 44 32 41 > 35 57 74 34 28 24 19 42 37 11 26 49 23 22 36 21 70 16 57 60 28 44 39 31 15 39 > 24 34 18 29 36 50 64 49 47 32 26 11 15 21 38 31 > 348=N 118=I K170 -2(26F3.0)~ > 24 21 11 7 2 4 6 18 28 17 15 20 25 21 13 4 10 16 10 4 9 11 22 13 21 32 > 43 48 24 31 23 14 16 23 25 34 34 61 48 27 21 22 44 55 43 15 31 33 21 38 34 28 > 4 28 20 20 31 20 24 21 12 29 2 5 8 15 30 24 27 48 33 25 38 17 22 33 46 55 > 31 45 41 26 36 18 30 35 38 43 28 23 34 7 15 31 27 53 41 47 12 43 75 56 52 62 > 52 20 38 46 56 82 56 65 68 96 42 27 33 67 39 27 37 10 25 22 30 28 26 33 45 53 > 69 78 66 55 51 75 27 33 67 64 70 75 51 46 36 46 78 90 54 62 80 65140 58 93 88 > 72 60 82 53 76 33 58 78104 58 84 60 58 82 57 34 25 65 26 32 42 50 61 30 5 68 > 32 12 18 30 52 33 61 75 62 42 53 48 76 74 56 45 39 29 31 24 11 8 22 6 27 21 > 24 33 28 18 5 14 21 8 21 13 20 19 5 18 17 7 19 24 21 26 18 2 13 19 15 6 > 3 17 14 15 20 15 8 5 15 21 17 14 18 21 11 13 17 9 21 11 19 20 15 22 17 25 > 10 38 4 20 11 18 22 26 25 23 26 27 19 22 29 17 20 34 32 28 26 11 41 13 26 31 > 15 17 19 17 14 24 13 24 19 9 16 27 29 22 25 17 12 4 15 9 20 21 7 16 5 17 > 7 10 9 10 13 11 2 21 6 14 24 13 10 14 19 15 22 15 18 11 18 20 16 18 16 20 > 21 9 18 22 7 14 13 17 12 10 > 302=N 138=I K165 -2(26F3.0)~ > 2 3 6 4 8 11 20 16 12 14 12 8 15 14 18 25 12 30 28 21 25 6 22 19 17 5 > 20 31 17 14 16 20 2 11 9 12 11 13 17 16 17 23 0 6 8 9 10 13 6 17 12 15 > 16 18 6 17 24 17 8 12 10 16 19 7 11 32 44 55 36 22 33 4 13 27 12 20 18 27 > 10 21 28 18 62 48 38 19 21 17 21 16 25 22 28 24 16 26 30 49 34 22 35 20 32 19 > 66 38 47 67 75110 60 70 95 91 68 55 30 32 43 51 60 35 15 20 17 30 52 70 46 36 > 53 35 54 7 22 35 45 43 60 54 44 21 35 31 76 36 49 42 50 55 41 20 37 63 28 30 > 33 41 37 18 11 32 20 8 17 47 45 21 29 32 25 18 24 20 24 20 24 13 29 27 18 30 > 11 16 21 7 17 21 19 28 33 29 15 34 32 25 45 41 24 17 6 25 33 18 35 43 23 16 > 14 5 16 24 23 8 10 21 19 23 26 13 16 5 8 25 14 16 25 27 11 18 13 10 14 2 > 4 14 10 8 14 23 10 26 2 16 6 10 9 14 17 10 9 7 14 28 20 13 24 41 25 31 > 34 16 25 9 20 11 10 15 19 16 8 26 19 23 20 15 22 29 36 33 31 42 35 15 36 29 > 34 24 13 20 8 25 4 18 13 16 23 27 16 50 33 46 > 174=N 272=I K188 -2(26F3.0)~ > 64 69 50 35 46 31 34 16 36 22 38 44 46 23 17 29 17 13 10 29 19 22 18 28 23 14 > 6 25 12 2 17 16 15 10 15 13 28 17 26 29 24 32 34 18 47 27 36 45 12 17 43 15 > 25 39 28 37 44 17 5 15 32 16 13 10 25 22 10 25 59 9 40 36 34 42 29 6 14 26 > 48 18 13 42 36 35 48 25 24 8 18 32 28 22 42 51 14 20 24 17 59 16 27 21 14 23 > 33 42 10 41 2 14 9 18 12 17 14 11 25 10 9 20 26 6 16 34 16 18 31 11 43 9 > 23 32 10 18 15 14 13 22 8 14 11 9 14 26 32 17 23 26 11 3 10 21 31 21 9 17 > 10 27 5 30 11 53 30 29 11 40 20 42 53 30 18 20 23 17 > 580=N 292=I K201 -2(26F3.0)~ > 11 8 10 13 10 6 3 15 5 0 2 12 10 4 10 7 4 3 6 8 11 15 8 6 12 10 > 5 10 6 5 14 2 9 14 10 14 9 7 2 4 7 2 4 8 10 16 2 18 28 10 14 18 > 11 19 16 2 6 19 15 3 5 12 11 12 9 11 12 6 11 32 16 31 19 26 12 14 31 10 > 37 18 24 28 23 52 42 54 15 56 5 29 39 37 27 42 38 20 12 17 14 30 40 11 25 55 > 35 26 23 21 51 17 34 29 14 21 23 19 15 29 16 21 14 13 25 36 40 24 33 32 21 9 > 34 26 33 26 11 17 11 26 5 16 10 34 32 28 18 44 29 34 46 40 35 40 33 31 18 23 > 26 14 24 29 27 24 49 36 16 28 37 43 7 17 27 39 25 12 17 14 19 26 33 10 16 21 > 13 29 23 19 32 21 16 18 29 30 22 13 34 36 11 27 30 23 12 15 11 13 17 2 9 11 > 24 14 17 4 15 23 12 24 5 29 18 16 13 18 6 22 12 15 19 14 23 27 20 8 20 28 > 25 32 4 17 6 22 19 3 29 25 2 4 13 30 20 8 42 4 11 9 18 21 16 18 13 19 > 7 16 33 19 26 21 16 30 23 18 10 18 24 18 4 9 7 34 27 13 22 15 26 23 33 16 > 40 40 54 49 17 41 20 30 26 25 23 10 18 19 29 17 33 28 12 14 21 2 29 22 27 16 > 23 38 30 22 19 17 7 21 19 3 9 15 20 14 20 12 31 2 17 13 19 15 22 2 16 23 > 19 6 14 7 14 11 3 17 26 13 19 10 24 9 22 12 9 22 13 27 22 17 25 30 8 45 > 14 27 21 33 20 6 11 20 24 6 16 19 10 6 35 16 14 15 26 19 10 13 2 10 21 14 > 0 2 13 16 12 10 9 3 0 22 14 6 20 13 18 3 12 21 12 16 5 19 2 18 10 9 > 11 9 15 2 20 15 11 14 8 15 19 13 9 6 14 8 6 14 25 18 24 16 13 11 15 21 > 12 16 21 8 22 26 16 27 13 4 17 20 11 6 21 19 16 7 6 34 5 16 4 9 7 20 > 8 11 9 22 20 23 19 20 16 9 17 22 13 10 8 5 21 7 13 16 4 20 18 15 11 26 > 30 27 14 19 31 7 24 22 20 17 21 18 25 21 11 14 6 16 12 9 18 5 9 11 8 17 > 19 10 8 15 20 29 24 20 19 20 10 22 14 12 4 12 8 9 12 15 8 21 9 20 25 14 > 23 9 27 31 23 19 32 12 10 16 24 20 26 14 10 11 0 2 10 16 4 12 14 18 21 13 > 16 20 18 22 12 13 4 6 > 515=N 338=I K167 -2(26F3.0)~ > 2 10 19 9 18 17 12 10 13 2 3 15 22 11 5 18 14 10 14 5 9 4 14 24 34 39 > 43 45 21 29 56 14 60 32 26 34 43 61 32 63 14 29 6 32 17 28 32 33 22 6 3 9 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16 > 152=N 755=I K181 -2(26F3.0)~ > 15 13 6 9 69 16 13 9 8 28 38 43 28 21 52 47 44 25 27 17 2 13 7 9 18 7 > 25 48 45 47 69 95117 66 87 94 32 42 50 54 35 68 56 71102 43 67 41 80 55 30 61 > 55 51 80 65110 72 58 25 13 18 27 30 36 48 53 24 31 25 24 2 16 9 13 21 13 19 > 28 11 15 22 18 23 9 13 25 18 8 23 11 6 13 20 16 29 10 12 16 0 0 14 22 8 > 6 10 13 15 16 13 14 17 18 15 12 2 13 7 14 17 13 6 13 17 12 23 6 15 3 2 > 16 12 16 9 6 16 9 15 6 15 27 33 24 15 25 32 23 39 3 9 4 9 > 90=N 764=I K203 -2(26F3.0)~ > 16 24 12 17 42 37 35 26 17 22 22 19 37 40 39 29 9 37 39 40 44 67 79 83 54 42 > 53 17 44 54 41 62 86 54 87 81 36 46 32 47 28 20 40 21 37 73 53 90 82 62 70 50 > 56 91 99154159110 69 88 89 61 29 38 47 55 82 73 60 80 40 53 57 37 51 28 83116 > 92 59 97 80 66125204152200124103130 > 325=N 782=I K085 -2(26F3.0)~ > 24 36 25 20 34 25 28 29 24 8 14 17 10 9 13 24 26 11 4 10 6 11 8 6 13 7 > 5 10 5 15 12 11 13 23 17 25 23 25 17 16 12 19 22 25 2 3 12 12 22 14 15 10 > 7 13 15 20 13 7 40 41 31 14 48 23 25 48 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2 9 16 7 0 > 13 11 9 7 5 18 3 0 7 6 2 5 8 2 10 8 13 4 16 10 11 20 13 11 0 0 > 0 5 0 14 2 8 13 9 14 0 2 0 14 9 0 6 9 7 8 11 17 9 4 12 9 14 > 19 17 14 22 16 14 6 9 2 13 5 10 7 9 13 17 14 18 19 2 4 11 18 14 13 8 > 14 16 19 14 7 2 16 13 5 17 19 22 16 29 18 17 21 17 21 3 12 25 16 22 17 25 > 7 15 22 4 9 11 20 15 7 11 26 19 24 10 5 16 19 25 17 16 21 10 14 27 13 25 > 38 19 37 60 22 41 28 27 12 18 39 37 38 49 38 27 43 26 34 26 25 27 6 28 17 24 > 24 32 12 32 14 26 32 30 37 11 40 28 28 8 19 12 30 38 18 44 48 35 15 36 60 32 > 32 27 11 31 34 21 31 28 37 29 10 27 39 22 16 29 19 29 38 23 35 7 12 6 19 9 > 11 18 17 7 10 6 15 8 28 16 13 4 7 13 18 3 19 9 31 18 20 25 9 2 5 15 > 4 6 14 10 17 13 19 12 16 24 16 9 13 18 14 8 21 28 13 20 18 21 6 16 5 12 > 10 18 13 32 21 22 13 47 10 7 31 23 15 7 24 > 169=N 1067=I M918z -2(26F3.0)~ >133 18 28 33 18 51133164158 60119213184164228198123202 96141123102127125126 70 >159134152 76 86128108124 79143107 68 91100114 75113 98 66 87 97 95122140116 87 >133103 78 14 59 74 17 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8 36 60 78 74 81 90 48104100150 36 > 85 49 57 95 94101 93128112 95129 54 43 40 17 52 81 69130 65113 97113 48 82129 >102 94 87107 61105117137108 93 89 73 70 67 95 64 26 66 4 50 51 47 70 92 72 88 > 69 73 51 66112 38 10 79 56 15 41 22 33 28 43 15 27 50 78 85 28 91 56 78 60 72 > 75140 80 29 53 47 55 8 36 18 54 23 29 17 15 18 14 28 22 18 15 > 199=N 1090=I M710 -2(26F3.0)~ > 52 77 35124112129 60 72102106139 58105110 53 76123 68 54 72 71 77 63 81 86 57 > 52 91 40 82 68 31 5 45 37 10 26 37 24 0 49 50 48 60 30 53 34 37 62 64 7 20 > 68 49 40 44 25 21 23 23 53 6 30 40 27 62 91 58 67 92 76 19 86 6 36 4 11 24 > 62 29 27 7 82 7 36 61 84160 83 65 58119 35 65 32 60 15 15 42 32 29 35 34 32 > 14 31 4 44 35 31 14 16 7 21 16 22 13 26 53 4 3 35 25 12 4 24 0 4 22 5 > 9 13 23 19 5 21 11 22 18 10 19 21 30 4 22 14 13 0 5 16 31 18 12 2 18 18 > 16 23 26 18 20 12 12 16 15 25 13 13 11 0 18 24 19 4 3 21 13 19 29 14 25 5 > 24 14 4 14 7 4 15 10 10 11 7 3 8 16 12 15 6 > 176=N 1103=I M917 -2(26F3.0)~ > 27 38 30 42 33 29 35 65 30 59 61 53 50 57 61 52 70 58 46 24 51 24 12 28 31 27 > 17 53 54 36 65 62 75 43 50112104 57 59116 91100 84 52 59 69 73106 31 50105 85 >129 68 64 73 79 55 45 71 35 55 37 47 51 76 55 62 38 84 43 66 62 64105 68 48 36 > 50 34 50 55 62 31 26 34 22 29 43 43 31 30 34 4 27 35 40 31 38 27 36 27 22 16 > 18 27 15 2 32 10 10 16 31 17 6 31 9 12 21 22 19 3 25 17 32 24 24 29 36 31 > 17 34 7 25 8 16 10 27 19 16 10 22 26 17 25 24 12 23 9 17 19 22 20 17 23 13 > 5 16 20 23 12 3 27 16 17 29 22 35 6 38 34 22 35 27 17 24 > 467=N 1151=I K038 -2(26F3.0)~ > 9 5 8 8 10 20 35 43 57 44 30 42 47 30 23 17 32 36 22 33 25 28 16 37 46 35 > 42 29 21 19 30 28 42 59 55 15 31 43 17 24 16 26 16 8 18 3 32 34 45 43 48 29 > 66 48 62 21 22 77 20 3 60 39 14 22 27 21 23 47 20 20 47 71 96 16 58 46 48 24 > 50 85100103 42 54 21 48 6 20 9 43 31 42 29 65 69 47 83 46 38 51 30 27 25 21 > 28 20 21 12 4 20 28 41 12 11 46 41 44 49 19 22 6 26 21 11 40 17 15 24 11 15 > 17 17 8 10 9 4 9 11 6 20 9 14 2 8 17 9 10 13 15 7 26 2 21 27 7 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37 41 41 34 39 32 45 32 38 > 14 27 54 18 8 48 39 18 31 53 27 8 30 16 20 30 41 30 14 60 41 56 34 23 36 48 > 42 19 39 23 38 12 36 30 68 45 38 22 35 33 25 30 37 23 31 18 20 38 30 35 24 30 > 34 22 38 > 470=N 1157=I K009 -2(26F3.0)~ > 9 7 10 7 8 13 14 11 9 5 5 6 13 19 7 7 4 5 4 4 8 3 6 3 8 7 > 6 6 18 8 4 6 5 3 7 5 12 7 9 3 9 7 12 19 18 20 24 21 9 5 11 19 > 5 3 13 10 5 6 4 2 5 4 5 2 8 5 3 2 7 9 14 8 16 32 46 42 24 38 > 24 27 4 10 6 12 26 40 32 26 34 28 39 20 24 35 16 18 28 26 33 36 38 19 14 28 > 33 37 21 22 29 32 42 54 39 29 13 32 27 14 31 22 35 46 48 35 35 69 24 10 30 22 > 31 29 17 49 28 23 10 12 38 20 36 18 19 19 31 10 31 63 27 49 59 34 24 53 52 40 > 45 39 57 31 9 13 17 27 38 44 38 99 89 84 79 98 88 38 36 28 24 11 15 2 17 6 > 19 16 21 57 86 81 10 28 22 47 46 16 32 35 37 53 82 61 44 35 34 41 88 90 54 44 > 53 40 27 24 31 13 25 12 24 14 19 19 35 23 16 19 2 16 21 30 12 12 20 57 47 67 > 62 65 7 24 32 5 40 33 30 23 12 8 13 14 19 35 11 11 44 27 11 13 30 15 15 34 > 27 27 13 24 16 12 7 17 16 13 14 6 15 21 28 20 18 24 12 15 38 18 34 39 31 31 > 36 20 37 13 22 6 4 29 25 35 37 12 11 22 22 28 17 25 17 2 28 11 9 8 17 3 > 25 11 16 15 27 24 3 43 25 19 6 21 12 18 21 7 27 54 81 22 55 68 36 64 59 37 > 62 58 57 38 37 28 30 4 11 26 42 29 30 15 13 21 12 24 10 11 5 16 14 15 19 14 > 14 16 8 16 16 16 17 20 2 15 30 15 4 15 17 39 30 47 48 29 14 18 33 12 11 27 > 9 36 28 35 45 53 44 42 23 20 33 21 16 20 21 21 37 34 29 16 24 14 31 25 24 31 > 19 2 25 19 24 8 5 20 10 17 13 25 6 24 22 16 2 22 3 11 13 19 12 13 16 40 > 25 4 14 16 4 9 14 3 11 6 13 14 5 7 13 3 6 11 14 2 8 10 12 6 13 31 > 11 21 > 393=N 1158=I K012 -2(26F3.0)~ > 29 33 43 13 27 12 13 5 5 8 10 8 10 5 12 7 13 8 9 11 8 9 12 23 28 29 > 38 41 4 26 11 12 11 15 18 15 5 13 2 15 17 20 27 23 20 21 14 7 12 21 49 14 > 5 27 30 8 12 18 9 13 15 17 13 22 33 31 4 40 34 26 21 38 51 54 35 14 27 17 > 28 4 27 12 36 37 34 18 32 48 41 65 32 21 40 34 86 89 76 66 92108 42 45 90113 >114 37 38 84 45 51 75 42 53 14 53 60 35 74 37 36 71 63 70 80 84 35 21 34 18 44 > 31 18 58 31 41 8 20 35 29 26 25 40 17 44 8 34 54 28 27 40 34 23 26 77102 85 > 85105 37 27 33 52 36 54 58 35 77 97129 96112109 86 95 86 98 9 6 3 6 6 18 > 11 13 24 21 18 2 7 7 22 23 4 20 31 16 26 38 34 3 11 21 17 45 43 33 35 44 > 43 17 10 10 4 16 8 19 12 17 24 30 28 62 51 6 14 20 48 28 27 12 57 76 64 32 > 38 10 31 49 32 68 47 44 46 56 43 62 83 76 73 25 49103 40 44 39 77 35 48 68 26 > 33 27 57 53 46 34 61 55 36 45 20 39 48 46 48 42 60 31 22 55 24 42 43 20 39 60 > 20 40 10 21 2 7 35 29 33 38 17 14 25 11 27 13 21 28 3 30 10 9 21 33 7 34 > 17 21 13 23 24 2 37 16 21 11 17 9 19 22 10 22 34 16 4 13 16 13 32 17 5 16 > 26 22 21 25 28 24 12 12 24 22 19 23 21 2 18 13 21 10 14 8 22 22 21 38 21 11 > 14 10 19 18 32 30 27 7 16 32 26 2 19 24 38 28 30 27 10 2 11 12 9 18 20 10 > 22 19 23 > 417=N 1184=I K040 -2(26F3.0)~ > 32 20 19 22 31 5 11 4 12 9 3 11 2 17 10 16 30 48 33 48 23 25 9 11 23 8 > 3 22 24 11 22 36 20 29 62 48 57 66 87 55 16 48 50 52 53 79 77 66 56 38 61 19 > 47 12 25 34 55 51 76 49 75 77 76100 80 62 83 50 55 53 48 62 72 81 29 25 45 71 > 91 26 27 53 39 44 58 42 37 12 50 36 21 46 22 22 38 24 23 33 24 10 17 11 8 19 > 16 9 36 27 33 12 21 36 18 21 28 34 12 38 6 27 46 13 26 41 19 14 23 36 50 67 > 42 72 40 31 33 38 25 38 38 25 38 46 66 35 67 65 52 62 64 55 27 30 18 30 19 56 > 31 37 46 42 46 5 19 17 34 33 7 25 28 28 32 41 40 25 16 25 16 47 56 32 33 39 > 58 17 9 13 6 17 6 15 11 12 16 16 16 23 21 2 17 18 36 15 19 16 39 32 47 25 > 16 2 21 20 4 26 24 24 20 30 17 22 27 27 31 11 19 39 23 17 20 32 14 25 42 16 > 31 24 25 20 18 18 39 31 18 16 5 27 20 35 33 24 33 8 11 25 20 43 65 47 52 51 > 24 39 16 25 3 3 34 18 28 31 11 18 29 20 30 20 29 33 8 31 20 17 18 25 2 29 > 22 23 24 28 30 8 35 15 11 4 15 11 17 21 11 22 33 24 7 18 20 20 33 29 11 25 > 34 40 33 18 30 12 11 20 27 24 17 30 19 5 22 9 21 5 8 14 25 22 18 28 19 9 > 10 8 20 9 30 28 20 2 12 14 14 3 19 19 36 16 21 17 6 3 9 9 6 6 12 4 > 23 21 29 21 26 22 11 11 4 18 13 8 12 17 15 19 19 22 12 16 2 17 10 12 18 2 > 20 17 9 15 3 11 2 9 4 15 14 5 9 13 13 8 17 10 7 6 17 2 12 2 7 6 > 2 > 260=N 1212=I K182 -2(26F3.0)~ > 30 15 26 29 10 14 31 20 34 33 40 33 9 37 34 47 48 52 58 60 71 39 51 41 30 8 > 19 24 39 29 58 29 18 30 24 42 28 20 25 37 28 25 19 20 30 25 10 12 40 30 20 4 > 7 10 9 15 13 14 13 4 10 18 9 25 10 15 23 27 36 25 31 9 3 8 7 12 13 2 > 11 20 25 8 12 7 5 10 13 15 10 30 12 20 27 24 20 23 14 6 15 19 22 16 11 25 > 18 14 8 16 21 17 30 22 44 63 60 59 66 77 40 43 50 65 26 8 2 7 5 23 12 17 > 36 49 48 8 15 25 40 44 20 33 43 48 44 72 87 86 64 71 41 56 55 40 51 73 63 44 > 29 39 20 33 12 36 27 26 28 27 24 29 32 8 39 36 54 32 30 33 50 83 73 45 47 4 > 33 39 23 43 48 41 39 46 34 47 32 22 27 23 26 34 28 32 29 50 28 26 40 32 51 26 > 47 33 20 29 59 52 64 55 15 33 24 29 15 21 18 9 12 26 11 29 39 17 30 52 21 35 > 22 12 9 11 22 16 21 25 6 10 15 11 14 13 12 23 4 32 13 15 18 21 13 25 15 23 > 521=N 1229=I K115 -2(26F3.0)~ > 16 24 21 26 16 18 9 14 6 16 14 34 49 24 13 28 22 9 17 15 7 9 16 22 18 12 > 17 26 22 8 11 14 25 48 19 6 18 16 27 20 10 9 4 15 14 11 27 13 11 16 9 11 > 19 20 2 3 18 9 17 13 8 15 10 20 5 10 22 12 10 14 16 4 23 5 10 17 2 16 > 28 11 8 11 20 13 26 28 41 18 13 9 13 8 18 16 20 19 10 27 15 21 29 30 60 37 > 28 6 9 6 18 9 26 13 20 22 23 25 2 26 14 17 21 8 28 45 36 26 30 17 18 15 > 31 24 35 41 25 32 45 36 16 20 30 9 25 12 22 9 14 20 18 22 27 21 2 19 20 27 > 10 13 11 7 16 22 13 10 0 9 8 2 25 13 17 21 23 13 11 9 12 16 3 6 13 11 > 2 4 21 2 8 12 4 3 7 8 9 7 3 12 20 14 11 2 8 6 12 10 4 11 4 6 > 13 12 20 32 8 24 20 13 19 9 14 2 7 25 23 25 32 10 12 25 16 24 17 22 21 2 > 19 9 10 13 10 0 12 10 8 9 13 18 2 26 14 9 4 10 3 14 12 3 8 20 7 5 > 9 16 12 22 22 7 21 33 24 20 13 17 12 9 16 22 26 19 30 10 12 18 19 21 2 7 > 0 10 6 3 8 2 3 8 0 3 2 11 6 7 0 8 4 7 0 8 2 12 6 9 8 4 > 0 7 9 5 3 8 0 3 11 12 9 8 6 9 0 5 19 9 4 8 7 5 11 14 16 7 > 13 2 11 9 14 16 13 11 2 0 19 2 6 15 5 6 4 14 2 11 8 13 2 19 7 8 > 7 11 8 10 9 25 13 6 12 19 10 15 25 12 11 19 27 29 20 19 19 15 16 18 21 5 > 9 10 17 5 15 19 13 24 22 15 14 31 15 24 19 28 33 22 35 7 29 40 28 5 18 7 > 32 38 18 23 19 18 14 29 11 26 19 23 10 28 30 7 25 16 21 14 22 26 38 25 25 13 > 21 20 22 11 16 20 15 7 8 11 7 6 11 10 2 21 11 2 16 13 16 13 16 6 21 0 > 10 2 7 10 6 5 10 7 22 17 20 2 14 6 4 13 9 2 21 17 18 2 11 6 8 10 > 10 13 17 13 19 3 22 11 6 2 8 12 0 7 2 15 12 16 18 8 2 20 18 14 12 14 > 11 > 631=N 1231=I K052 -2(26F3.0)~ > 30 37 18 34 5 38 4 14 5 26 18 34 12 32 50 29 40 34 15 16 39 26 40 37 59 43 > 44 12 15 30 37 72 15 18 38 29 49 32 9 20 8 36 52 17 48 6 14 34 23 24 28 22 > 7 29 24 16 30 29 15 43 37 36 12 27 43 18 16 19 21 12 36 5 20 18 4 9 27 12 > 5 13 17 14 12 7 28 12 13 22 22 6 21 23 22 27 33 51 21 36 27 25 40 38 22 9 > 23 7 22 13 58 30 27 59 50 56 4 22 24 54 36 6 29 37 42 43 56 35 29 26 32 27 > 48 53 26 41 46 31 21 18 30 11 31 12 55 23 25 42 32 47 45 26 8 26 38 55 24 27 > 17 46 47 47 31 22 3 19 23 11 28 21 24 26 32 19 27 21 21 20 6 19 31 12 19 18 > 28 11 12 23 14 16 15 26 19 11 14 24 16 6 13 7 21 14 18 11 10 15 9 16 25 12 > 29 27 9 23 36 14 30 11 22 6 7 25 14 17 16 2 7 12 8 16 6 13 17 2 17 9 > 9 10 16 2 19 10 16 14 21 20 2 29 20 8 11 14 4 16 17 13 17 25 14 2 15 19 > 17 21 13 6 16 14 19 7 8 9 7 3 12 15 8 7 15 7 12 11 10 19 2 9 6 12 > 10 15 17 8 2 6 5 9 7 10 16 5 2 11 10 10 3 8 4 10 10 13 10 7 2 10 > 9 2 8 5 2 11 9 12 9 10 11 16 6 6 20 15 14 15 14 12 18 16 16 8 16 3 > 16 13 12 19 11 13 10 4 19 3 6 17 7 6 7 11 2 11 5 6 2 20 5 13 12 20 > 9 11 6 21 14 5 11 15 6 8 12 8 13 14 12 20 10 7 12 11 11 16 12 2 8 7 > 9 2 14 15 11 14 15 8 11 20 4 16 8 12 18 13 18 2 19 19 17 0 10 5 12 8 > 5 2 11 3 4 13 2 13 7 5 5 15 13 4 10 8 7 9 10 15 20 12 11 10 17 13 > 17 3 7 9 11 7 5 11 7 7 12 10 4 20 11 11 15 7 17 13 13 9 18 2 9 3 > 2 11 9 5 7 16 21 12 10 4 17 14 11 17 20 2 13 12 12 2 12 11 12 12 9 12 > 16 13 23 7 34 23 17 12 15 16 4 8 10 10 18 17 9 2 22 17 19 19 23 23 19 16 > 11 18 9 12 9 16 22 12 3 4 12 8 8 9 14 17 19 5 16 3 10 5 2 12 15 7 > 18 10 2 11 9 10 6 12 12 8 10 8 22 20 10 11 19 16 8 11 7 6 13 2 13 12 > 13 10 8 15 2 15 12 7 13 4 5 13 9 10 10 13 2 9 12 13 12 7 8 12 13 5 > 6 2 12 4 3 7 12 9 2 8 4 10 10 9 5 6 7 10 8 12 5 9 7 9 12 7 > 12 13 14 10 10 15 16 > 322=N 1270=I K099 -2(26F3.0)~ > 14 8 20 14 10 42 40 31 19 15 18 40 32 6 11 9 10 29 31 10 18 8 7 3 5 8 > 5 6 4 7 7 13 2 9 11 5 9 15 9 7 17 14 11 12 8 10 12 11 9 16 14 16 > 12 8 11 18 20 13 15 22 17 26 23 18 3 2 2 4 5 14 8 13 26 29 30 3 13 15 > 26 29 8 12 18 18 23 35 37 41 32 45 30 49 58 57 42105 67 43 14 38 15 28 15 41 > 49 41 51 64 43 33 38 9 10 22 26 17 34 21 30 22 35 15 13 6 10 16 6 31 30 25 > 20 33 22 27 21 25 30 5 14 24 35 22 24 60 19 18 37 48 60 49 71 53 30 44 57 75 > 94 86 21 44 37 77 45 49 41 25 28 58 43 52 74 56 59100 32 62 27 39 11 24 49 58 > 44 38 23 26 61 48 66 44 36 64 25 61 57 53 55 57 19 70 48 64 35 40 55 16 71 42 > 29 11 23 13 25 36 18 38 55 37 10 37 50 45 72 54 28 51 65 96 44 35 38 32 14 39 > 86 40 59 27 29 2 26 21 42 18 15 9 23 16 23 22 17 15 17 14 17 16 30 43 30 9 > 22 36 21 12 30 27 35 24 40 50 27 2 24 30 16 19 39 12 25 30 42 40 45 22 32 13 > 12 40 21 21 28 20 20 21 20 27 14 22 4 23 15 15 36 45 28 22 13 28 9 9 30 15 > 6 7 30 6 16 11 10 12 5 7 > 372=N 1281=I K030 -2(26F3.0)~ > 25 26 4 6 3 5 10 11 3 14 9 13 6 8 7 12 19 16 17 16 36 3 13 24 8 17 > 28 19 8 24 54 41 50 55 54 45 18 34 43 48 47 50 20 55 58 76 55 70 50 15 47 68 > 80 29 6 2 3 5 19 7 17 48 46 47 3 13 14 40 43 10 7 20 21 36 67 61 22 12 > 29 25 44 54 37 56 69 46 41 22 27 16 24 9 27 22 46 57 61 54 55 56 6 9 19 30 > 32 29 20 61 81 94 53 48 5 18 31 13 51 53 38 40 52 31 51 42 38 50 23 29 64 23 > 19 27 57 21 20 52 28 46 29 52 36 32 37 49 45 27 36 5 31 41 62 25 38 47 20 15 > 45 16 52 65 33 40 63 20 49 28 36 7 7 43 33 46 35 13 13 21 18 37 23 24 40 11 > 56 32 35 31 44 12 33 22 45 25 27 40 8 55 29 26 20 25 12 35 62 25 49 61 57 16 > 37 87 45 72 54 24 36 48 65 33 48 51 14 5 20 83 53 32 41 33 17 37 23 44 17 24 > 19 35 21 28 40 35 15 26 11 42 20 47 46 36 8 16 37 28 5 23 27 43 42 56 52 39 > 16 28 27 10 36 35 14 43 29 35 23 29 39 33 23 32 57 31 17 34 34 22 28 49 50 27 > 37 20 27 26 28 36 11 27 36 6 36 7 16 38 25 27 8 35 10 38 25 26 2 34 3 27 > 13 34 18 26 29 41 25 9 17 18 5 17 21 12 18 21 20 25 14 12 29 14 18 17 2 5 > 12 10 17 4 8 14 7 12 19 7 13 25 6 18 16 20 20 20 32 3 31 28 27 5 17 4 > 25 15 8 4 7 3 7 17 > 202=N 1299=I K109 -2(26F3.0)~ > 8 10 39 15 11 9 6 3 14 18 2 14 29 40 26 29 53 25 17 28 42 35 39 67 49 78 >105 69 55 70 74 55 62 74108 31 21 14 12 11 58 39 50120116104 11 19 16 45 70 32 > 28 58 88139146 22111 69 84 79133146 90109155196 84 51 61 35 68 26 56 78 65103 >101 78 91102 29 37 47 66 73 90 42 91132102156 52 2 12 10 8 17 23 34 32 37 21 > 34 33 22 32 15 19 38 21 23 22 26 7 13 21 10 20 18 24 15 10 13 18 25 27 21 8 > 27 19 25 15 19 18 20 5 33 16 22 42 10 23 26 11 25 20 24 2 3 36 23 25 30 9 > 14 21 17 26 24 18 16 2 26 20 18 21 24 7 48 47 57 43 43 50 16 49 31 16 2 11 > 3 18 21 17 20 29 15 5 15 24 19 27 17 7 15 22 19 11 13 20 > 171=N 1324=I K086 -2(26F3.0)~ > 17 23 33 34 25 23 13 16 26 26 12 13 6 11 12 37 34 16 40 32 42 16 10 8 24 20 > 11 11 20 34 45 47 38 75 59 73 69 76 91 74 54 80 69 65 35 59 45 49 29 36 51 37 > 33 38 33 34 30 16 18 28 65 51 44 38100143130 70 73 6 28 26 14 36 35 38 61 83 > 67 85 51 49 56 38 37 54 45 44 60117 77 53 86 74 68 43 94 71 64 94 99 81 91 92 > 23 49 49 60 51 48 49 23 20 49 34 52 65 46 53 62 28 52 53 65 29 15 58 40 41 48 > 35 24 35 37 41 37 44 51 20 49 29 31 24 37 20 46 28 41 39 38 57 19 57 40 21 8 > 19 12 26 25 22 35 45 32 17 31 46 40 55 38 19 > 331=N 1349=I K028 -2(26F3.0)~ > 11 4 10 8 22 37 28 23 27 15 34 24 31 63 39 40 40 57 57 22 18 18 26 19 47 48 > 54 88 34 75 82 89 67 54 98159100 82 57141125119 63 45 13 39 56 23 54 37 38 59 > 57 65 64 52 56 65 30 35 53 45 39 45 63 50 47 49 39 40 29 50 37 32 20 46 38 29 > 29 17 25 39 38 29 32 44 18 29 37 26 43 55 34 45 55 16 44 28 22 4 7 40 32 33 > 40 17 17 30 29 32 27 32 30 9 38 20 14 14 24 2 31 15 17 16 18 32 7 52 32 19 > 5 24 8 26 26 15 20 26 21 8 27 30 18 35 19 13 23 29 23 19 23 32 18 2 13 48 > 33 33 34 22 8 17 14 21 12 13 8 17 15 17 31 19 9 9 9 22 16 26 22 17 4 12 > 18 15 2 23 21 30 20 23 19 12 2 11 7 3 19 11 3 23 21 25 19 30 21 14 11 10 > 22 14 11 25 33 19 27 26 22 19 25 11 22 27 17 14 12 14 16 2 18 3 5 20 6 13 > 13 28 7 23 18 16 2 19 6 12 14 28 20 24 18 34 29 7 14 18 13 15 29 22 24 20 > 28 39 26 24 37 17 27 28 30 3 18 17 18 2 17 20 10 18 24 12 16 27 3 15 16 12 > 17 30 26 2 23 23 19 3 15 2 19 13 2 7 12 6 10 21 2 17 13 10 5 20 18 2 > 13 5 5 3 5 12 13 11 12 2 7 9 8 9 3 9 6 6 7 > 161=N 1355=I K100 -2(26F3.0)~ >125 63115 52 50 28 47 72 65 67 99 72 37 41 71 22 45 16 44 36 32 35 34 33 36 28 > 13 24 33 50 32 24 35 61 57 66 39 43 2 30 33 20 51 52 57 57 89 65 91 51 42 43 > 18 28 59 57 64 58 89 53 35 53 41 69 45 74 44 22 27 33 34 76 73 29 52 47 55 30 > 38 42 26 23 42 18 35 55 39 52 84 37 49 33 30 6 16 38 27 35 34 16 16 37 26 43 > 27 21 33 8 39 28 26 20 27 16 49 26 42 43 38 48 12 47 33 17 9 10 8 16 24 13 > 22 23 20 8 17 27 27 41 27 11 25 25 31 19 16 15 14 6 12 28 13 6 18 5 7 13 > 7 12 5 11 6 > 174=N 1357=I K098 -2(26F3.0)~ > 25 20 26 23 28 31 23 26 38 39 29 37 55 35 55 26 62 54 37 54 36 42 50 59 24 37 > 52 94 48 58 32 85100 96 51 48 2 32 53 29 69 56 33 70 89 41 91 60 53 70 31 45 > 81104 92 62107 65 49 81 44 75 47101 53 38 47 58 66 53 88 25 46 43 83 47 36 42 > 38 33 60 27 59 70 39 70105 34 77 46 38 14 10 51 32 45 49 32 23 47 57 71 35 40 > 60 11 60 31 40 42 45 13 59 27 52 40 36 48 8 50 36 23 4 14 6 25 27 12 21 29 > 13 2 13 27 17 25 19 6 23 26 28 17 10 17 11 2 16 32 14 5 17 4 8 13 5 20 > 2 9 3 15 5 10 16 9 3 9 2 6 5 16 14 11 9 11 > 461=N 1359=I K043 -2(26F3.0)~ > 9 27 35 40 25 27 52 41 35 25 35 23 34 23 35 25 20 43 46 56 70 68 27 54 65102 > 51 67 60 91 83 74 52 41 13 40 49 32 70 60 59 66 50 43 43 45 45 52 7 17 25 57 > 31 30 67 22 44 67 52 48 41 46 48 50 25 56 46 33 33 18 28 14 22 22 14 26 17 29 > 46 24 30 45 23 32 54 20 40 21 31 9 11 32 33 28 32 10 16 33 27 35 17 31 25 5 > 36 17 15 26 32 4 33 21 26 25 31 29 9 41 23 16 11 18 11 20 34 22 27 44 18 13 > 26 40 27 40 26 14 23 34 35 37 30 40 24 15 25 40 25 20 23 29 20 32 19 32 13 18 > 7 14 11 16 25 15 8 5 6 6 8 14 15 11 4 12 22 23 8 17 18 24 13 20 15 13 > 2 12 11 6 5 10 6 14 13 11 10 15 15 12 10 5 19 15 15 21 18 17 16 15 17 11 > 18 6 16 12 15 16 23 21 18 6 26 6 10 19 10 8 11 18 7 18 12 12 2 25 9 10 > 7 19 11 11 6 27 19 7 9 13 11 13 13 7 18 12 30 30 28 26 36 23 30 23 32 7 > 13 15 18 4 18 15 20 26 24 20 26 25 12 29 25 28 41 53 70 29 60102 72 35 37 45 > 60 48 42 47 55 43 43 53 23 51 49 34 24 39 45 20 34 30 26 26 25 38 47 47 49 38 > 37 32 37 11 20 22 21 15 13 19 7 11 19 17 7 23 19 11 24 14 15 16 25 8 22 4 > 11 10 3 20 13 13 14 10 20 19 21 3 15 9 6 13 13 13 22 16 16 5 14 13 14 14 > 8 13 14 18 22 11 26 13 7 9 13 12 4 5 14 11 13 14 7 2 21 14 13 13 16 10 > 10 10 10 13 6 4 9 11 18 6 2 2 8 5 5 6 14 13 8 4 12 2 8 2 3 10 > 11 5 12 7 2 10 7 12 4 10 11 6 13 5 13 12 5 10 17 19 9 10 4 7 14 5 > 18 13 17 17 10 18 8 15 10 9 8 2 4 6 6 9 9 10 2 > 145=N 1359=I K173 -2(26F3.0)~ > 22 13 35 53 34 27 42 35 47 40 60 50 51 33 40 54 30 43 44 31 48 57 44 43 54 46 > 41 47 42 73130171129157 15 53 73 37 56 41 43 39 93 68 59 42 50 49 38 32 62 51 > 56 69 81 56 26 49 46 65 46 58 50 41 53 51 40 43 77 51 62 59 71 48 52 65 39 22 > 46 24 34 63 17 42 90 24 47 30 40 25 16 40 24 39 55 33 22 33 30 43 28 27 29 10 > 41 22 19 29 41 19 41 32 43 45 44 31 10 43 56 21 18 25 18 26 27 17 24 30 24 5 > 28 35 27 29 17 4 15 13 5 11 2 10 12 2 10 > 457=N 1363=I K035 -2(26F3.0)~ > 25 54 47 39 31 34 36 28 45 15 77 52 45 51 45 34 4 17 6 17 21 16 14 20 16 48 > 51 68 28 21 13 24 36 21 66 65 64 43 92 50 97 71 76 71 33 40 68 51 50 62 84 39 > 38 45 25 32 24 30 32 38 28 46 57 21 18 5 24 35 50 47 55 60 18 17 51 21 45 52 > 16 34 55 18 43 24 20 9 8 40 31 36 33 14 14 23 20 30 23 27 21 8 36 18 20 23 > 20 10 31 18 31 20 18 22 4 37 11 10 2 8 4 13 16 4 14 29 8 3 9 18 11 31 > 26 10 23 28 31 15 22 19 17 2 9 22 18 21 17 11 4 15 11 18 14 10 9 15 25 40 > 35 34 21 11 5 17 9 15 14 19 4 6 19 21 2 11 16 25 21 27 31 13 4 10 11 4 > 16 15 8 26 33 34 25 32 31 17 11 16 26 15 16 28 37 24 42 34 51 52 51 19 23 37 > 30 37 56 40 46 18 35 21 15 46 56 46 20 43 21 39 30 20 2 32 13 20 16 35 16 24 > 17 36 48 19 19 32 20 31 35 49 56 22 16 23 18 16 17 5 13 11 5 3 6 7 7 2 > 6 12 8 16 10 4 11 20 10 16 11 14 13 12 23 2 27 20 21 4 9 3 15 10 8 5 > 10 5 9 12 2 17 10 6 3 10 11 4 9 6 4 5 8 10 18 19 26 30 32 19 29 15 > 11 15 14 7 8 13 4 5 10 10 5 17 17 14 16 14 16 9 14 12 23 12 16 3 3 6 > 9 5 8 15 21 19 19 14 25 19 7 21 41 5 25 21 28 5 25 17 15 20 13 28 44 36 > 51 11 25 12 20 12 13 14 11 15 14 17 31 24 16 6 26 25 24 28 30 31 28 21 16 25 > 14 20 21 20 36 30 21 10 25 28 31 26 29 28 61 28 65 30 22 11 10 13 29 20 32 18 > 13 18 21 23 15 17 27 13 31 15 26 19 12 14 31 46 11 21 12 8 15 2 24 16 15 14 > 23 38 5 21 17 14 9 2 3 11 6 8 7 6 3 > 105=N 1370=I K187 -2(26F3.0)~ > 46 59 22 46 41 68 41 44 13 50 40 19 18 13 29 19 47 57105110138100115 2 23 40 > 29 89 70 44 51 58 51 90 52 41 48 13 28 52 55 85125121 61 74 78 40 99 66 78 79 > 43 62 80 62 65 62 20 37 45 40 21 38 42 15 19 46 32 48 46 16 38 56 15 44 31 24 > 17 12 33 16 19 21 7 11 20 14 22 13 27 26 11 34 25 26 25 33 13 34 26 30 32 34 > 36 > 285=N 1391=I K078 -2(26F3.0)~ > 9 8 4 5 8 7 12 13 13 14 18 13 10 8 6 6 8 11 16 9 9 7 12 8 6 9 > 5 9 10 12 12 15 6 10 17 35 24 14 26 29 24 11 15 18 12 8 18 8 9 8 3 6 > 11 6 14 15 12 12 5 14 15 17 24 14 11 10 8 16 24 21 26 21 34 28 18 19 20 17 > 26 13 17 18 25 28 16 37 37 38 19 35 24 45 73 42 60 82 50 24 32 54 36 37 50 28 > 54 51 44 35 46 51 52 37 37106 65 73 48 39 28 43 41 52 40 32 39 75 49 69 69 58 > 45 41 24 36 24 37 52 45 22 21 46 45 23 36 50 75 61 74101 66 22 31 45 19 43 62 > 31 53 55 61 39 39 44 42 22 25 43 27 28 44 46 37 37 54 43 32 43 27 37 39 43 57 > 62 59 45 18 67 21 14 53 32 41 14 59 29 42 30 31 24 49 19 44 32 49 22 44 36 70 > 76 41 46 65 39 39 75 42 33 23 42 89 47 53 50 24 49 49 47 13 17 16 16 10 21 24 > 17 25 19 10 13 31 12 24 14 18 27 26 46 19 39 38 40 16 23 14 20 15 15 6 12 10 > 7 15 6 13 10 11 7 11 17 9 18 19 16 5 7 13 21 14 17 9 10 7 7 5 10 > 220=N 1395=I M712 -2(26F3.0)~ > 65 40 64 86 66 77 95 68109104108135 89 88117 89 88 71 91 44 57 61 30 31 18 32 > 36 31 21 37 49 44 62 35 28 55 50 38 43 53 37 33 52 11 31 26 6 18 26 9 25 15 > 13 6 3 18 24 33 17 5 10 15 14 21 13 15 14 4 19 11 17 15 19 10 30 12 23 17 > 13 21 0 24 14 11 14 16 6 15 23 16 14 13 9 7 12 15 12 19 8 7 13 15 17 10 > 16 10 14 4 12 18 18 8 9 7 6 11 7 12 10 9 10 9 8 13 11 7 8 6 0 5 > 6 10 18 13 3 8 17 12 3 29 13 25 23 30 18 12 4 15 19 7 5 14 15 25 29 47 > 26 27 21 17 4 5 23 13 10 21 17 16 14 15 14 16 17 14 9 12 10 21 9 20 11 0 > 17 8 5 17 6 9 7 16 3 10 11 8 0 11 7 11 10 7 10 9 8 9 7 3 4 11 > 13 10 8 13 4 13 28 24 13 5 18 7 > 167=N 1396=I K200 -2(26F3.0)~ > 11 26 22 18 14 27 22 30 28 36 64 50 46 59 26 45 63 74 47 27 60 31 46 17 55 28 > 33 37 47 57 55 71 26 49 65 63 57 75 59 36 29 73 32 58 72 63 66115 30 83 62 53 > 28 24 52 42 84 82 51 47 56 43 77 49 41 69 28 57 36 45 43 39 35 69 28 52 34 42 > 49 21 70 44 40 10 23 11 19 40 18 45 55 58 21 52 79 36 52 42 29 48 39 37 47 66 > 55 46 12 15 51 24 30 29 40 28 30 28 49 14 17 11 28 6 15 24 18 12 20 7 15 10 > 17 26 21 5 7 11 3 1 10 9 17 12 28 37 29 5 16 20 5 14 15 4 22 13 28 22 > 19 16 18 6 4 13 6 8 10 13 10 > 393=N 1402=I K034 -2(26F3.0)~ > 20 42 45 34 24 16 28 60 68 40 39 66 46 48 53 61 43 44 47 50 45 29 42 50 45 26 > 8 23 43 53 50 64 48 27 16 39 24 39 58 33 52 70 22 86 56 55 20 25 75 64 56 63 > 15 16 28 29 36 36 26 28 7 30 12 10 9 21 6 25 16 19 25 24 29 2 26 21 18 15 > 16 9 22 31 7 20 28 28 7 22 33 27 30 23 8 23 24 27 30 27 30 27 10 15 44 40 > 43 36 24 9 18 15 31 28 29 18 19 19 20 36 19 4 6 2 16 24 46 39 49 19 46 62 > 52 7 30 38 53 30 58 60 24 10 22 24 12 19 37 15 44 44 45 34 90 66 41 23 25 62 > 46 32 46 37 21 41 53 51 25 33 13 29 57 42 34 8 13 20 4 31 15 19 31 24 18 9 > 35 5 36 46 27 2 51 21 30 59 63 34 49 47 49 52 28 29 29 9 16 29 17 34 27 6 > 26 15 10 27 14 24 32 9 3 9 15 23 0 15 28 24 26 36 14 26 59 20 30 31 21 36 > 40 50 2 34 60 31 2 20 8 21 20 2 12 16 8 12 31 17 25 20 21 7 42 61 32 51 > 53 22 22 39 47 49 64 66 50 49 47 52 20 19 30 26 15 16 34 15 31 36 25 12 26 24 > 30 43 43 42 36 33 35 47 8 20 9 3 18 18 17 18 41 85 74 68 44 54 41 38 40 49 > 4 43 49 46 3 42 40 41 33 25 37 60 36 60 13 53 69 46 29 28 30 18 18 31 24 44 > 44 21 6 44 51 36 45 50 63 35 32 24 32 14 20 19 22 44 12 7 2 35 25 36 25 24 > 38 53 31 61 20 31 17 4 19 39 15 29 22 6 20 19 25 12 23 19 13 21 19 34 32 10 > 25 37 20 > 592=N 1403=I K004 -2(26F3.0)~ > 15 12 14 23 8 11 17 10 9 11 20 12 13 14 11 31 17 29 22 18 29 26 13 6 13 10 > 14 14 22 27 42 38 12 15 35 19 25 41 30 26 50 27 37 32 32 18 26 42 32 32 47 21 > 36 48 36 23 35 29 35 11 30 29 25 32 41 19 31 32 32 29 28 30 11 43 38 25 22 24 > 23 34 31 21 29 31 30 17 35 42 42 34 31 20 31 36 27 42 37 52 32 28 40 57 36 39 > 31 40 16 19 17 18 19 24 29 28 33 32 37 18 8 6 8 14 14 15 22 20 16 11 16 23 > 10 32 36 28 38 26 25 15 5 14 23 13 15 24 10 22 32 28 30 42 39 31 26 27 38 37 > 42 50 40 43 44 57 44 35 49 31 41 39 29 40 29 32 37 22 30 18 20 22 22 13 18 26 > 12 22 21 20 5 19 13 16 18 21 19 17 18 30 28 14 14 21 12 12 16 14 22 13 18 19 > 15 22 23 14 14 18 19 9 10 19 13 10 19 20 23 30 21 11 15 31 12 13 16 17 19 35 > 35 39 42 55 49 27 29 23 29 27 18 19 22 15 18 32 19 22 36 44 24 32 35 26 22 33 > 33 25 26 21 21 22 25 20 23 20 23 15 16 17 15 14 9 19 12 9 15 13 8 16 20 17 > 23 20 22 20 25 24 40 17 17 15 8 20 20 13 29 37 36 31 31 23 41 38 24 29 32 13 > 30 29 25 13 19 17 26 24 18 20 24 22 23 12 25 26 15 16 15 12 10 12 16 21 26 22 > 18 2 20 18 16 14 16 15 21 20 18 21 12 12 9 12 17 10 4 8 11 12 14 12 18 19 > 21 15 24 16 15 14 7 20 26 20 29 19 19 20 13 19 13 21 19 19 16 10 17 19 15 16 > 21 24 13 17 16 17 19 11 20 14 15 17 14 23 9 22 18 16 10 8 7 10 13 13 8 8 > 3 2 8 9 9 9 2 8 14 12 16 3 16 9 5 15 21 15 11 16 12 17 18 21 16 17 > 10 16 9 14 14 19 12 18 17 11 17 14 21 19 10 20 27 22 15 21 22 13 13 27 16 11 > 16 19 8 10 19 17 23 22 16 23 23 22 21 12 15 16 21 20 15 14 17 16 12 16 18 27 > 38 18 14 16 19 16 15 19 14 17 15 22 13 18 10 13 13 13 14 18 15 19 20 21 13 18 > 20 20 12 21 8 19 16 20 19 26 22 31 29 31 37 40 54 45 46 40 44 35 47 38 28 39 > 26 39 32 33 38 34 30 31 28 24 23 22 27 28 22 25 19 13 19 17 19 17 12 21 11 5 > 16 24 18 19 29 8 19 17 20 24 17 20 21 21 3 22 20 27 22 24 > 419=N 1404=I K026 -2(26F3.0)~ > 74 86132 74 50 78 72 67 66 95 57 50 96 84 90 60 56 60 62 36 54 57 24 28 28 50 > 56139114101115 54 87109 93 93134 81 93112 45 79 46 60 18 65129100101105 60 49 > 73 43 81 77 95103 15107 68 57 74102 16130 62 68 56 72 82 27129 42 33 27 36 27 > 51 48 20 47 50 38 15 48 50 27 34 49 22 51 56 36 31 41 41 32 3 49 80 48 68 35 > 35 20 27 12 39 5 21 7 27 12 28 35 21 11 12 15 26 17 36 36 30 7 12 27 41 10 > 21 42 54 37 37 39 23 7 23 24 15 20 34 29 49 19 47 32 54 30 31 18 28 50 30 28 > 52 27 24 40 58 51 39 49 25 50 37 33 58 70 52 52 16 44 15 21 56 25 29 8 37 15 > 40 26 23 2 32 12 24 14 32 20 22 19 36 24 10 25 23 10 11 28 20 31 25 20 37 25 > 22 40 16 30 23 11 2 10 14 15 2 15 23 14 17 18 13 20 23 2 23 15 15 21 16 21 > 3 25 26 18 5 20 3 21 7 9 9 17 2 12 14 26 26 17 17 10 14 19 5 16 8 15 > 8 10 13 22 15 20 15 20 16 22 2 17 14 15 8 7 19 10 10 16 12 2 16 18 19 21 > 17 16 7 20 5 19 2 10 9 9 22 24 9 25 73 53 24 23 8 16 6 4 21 14 5 22 > 17 15 2 15 12 14 11 2 10 13 7 19 2 18 14 8 10 12 17 5 6 21 22 19 23 16 > 4 26 22 16 17 22 20 18 13 5 14 7 9 10 16 29 14 8 8 19 19 27 14 21 14 23 > 17 25 8 12 11 2 15 19 10 28 15 7 17 9 15 4 18 11 6 17 4 19 15 11 9 21 > 26 3 13 5 2 14 3 15 9 11 13 22 23 5 21 11 10 11 8 15 6 15 8 13 10 8 > 4 12 9 > 143=N 1409=I K184 -2(26F3.0)~ > 75 64 70 60 64 54 50 88 72114 91125106 96102 98165200170 35 87165183 99137157 >144103177 85165225161167250 89171152131 86 79138127205145 93 69100 66209165114 >143 52121 90122100 89 76103 54 76 45 75 80 30 65 45 40 11 34 30 55100 57 91 76 > 82 37 54 89 63 74 67 58 85 88 74 84 80 42 47 29 39 98 53 61 48 74 39 52 35 51 > 20 36 25 41 21 27 33 34 19 39 16 26 19 31 29 25 15 14 24 19 5 18 15 33 20 39 > 41 21 4 9 18 5 7 14 4 15 10 13 11 > 371=N 1429=I K048 -2(26F3.0)~ > 64 58 30 15 7 13 2 7 17 7 24 27 14 32 42 20 52 22 29 9 13 40 34 38 39 13 > 13 26 23 23 20 19 19 4 31 23 19 19 28 5 32 22 26 28 42 48 12 57 36 30 23 32 > 8 42 50 26 43 59 38 18 43 67 52 49 43 16 32 52 46 43 42 41 39 15 40 64 47 37 > 46 67 35 53 51 70 38 35 29 36 24 25 52 18 13 15 13 17 11 20 32 24 8 22 38 30 > 5 27 22 26 19 31 33 25 18 17 27 12 29 30 8 30 31 39 33 59 34 28 23 68 90 61 > 52 55 38 31 40 37 39 26 56 31 34 27 28 48 49 35 38 7 53 18 25 69 35 37 25 53 > 24 44 32 35 8 46 19 41 23 54 24 34 33 55 57 14 28 38 13 26 30 44 36 23 38 41 > 31 30 60 19 25 26 35 6 17 20 19 2 25 28 13 16 17 6 14 18 3 19 13 14 23 24 > 37 8 21 36 27 2 26 4 31 27 21 13 37 30 13 35 4 37 25 21 7 25 21 8 20 14 > 13 7 10 17 30 27 25 21 28 18 40 10 24 30 33 19 20 24 20 4 11 9 2 23 10 18 > 31 17 27 17 29 9 30 4 15 2 16 22 9 8 26 31 31 27 30 15 23 17 10 24 46 2 > 42 36 35 2 23 17 14 13 5 15 12 11 29 7 31 20 12 11 20 20 3 6 14 11 28 25 > 17 7 33 32 36 30 48 44 36 31 16 28 17 7 22 24 36 14 11 3 27 12 19 19 20 17 > 22 11 25 12 18 12 2 22 25 10 33 19 5 14 14 21 12 21 18 11 24 8 17 9 6 9 > 16 20 8 14 6 5 6 > 356=N 1442=I K036 -2(26F3.0)~ > 16 42 14 32 26 24 10 12 41 28 35 41 16 23 39 20 29 47 46 49 21 44 35 24 28 38 > 10 30 23 34 25 45 49 13 56 25 13 4 11 14 26 28 11 38 43 32 10 34 41 24 35 25 > 9 29 34 26 32 47 53 32 15 34 68 52 42 37 30 18 29 24 33 16 19 13 18 26 34 44 > 36 27 20 22 26 24 47 54 38 11 25 47 50 5 31 30 49 28 34 30 26 2 24 21 14 32 > 40 12 45 28 41 37 41 38 23 8 8 39 34 29 45 41 31 51 48 40 24 40 8 27 25 31 > 25 20 29 33 6 38 6 12 27 12 19 12 27 2 40 42 38 2 38 16 25 35 47 37 41 39 > 94 60 33 37 36 18 29 41 23 38 23 48 56 24 33 42 19 23 45 24 3 16 17 29 2 24 > 31 25 41 34 20 29 41 4 22 16 27 26 24 27 2 30 26 22 0 14 2 23 8 5 11 19 > 10 21 36 5 27 29 26 15 43 42 8 31 19 14 8 14 26 36 30 37 22 28 22 29 18 25 > 31 21 9 10 17 5 3 14 12 2 34 21 14 18 10 15 13 18 4 33 3 6 3 2 24 17 > 8 10 16 38 32 27 2 32 17 11 31 29 3 28 24 22 2 19 18 16 18 4 13 23 27 54 > 4 27 27 26 19 25 37 19 21 33 39 50 41 12 5 44 25 16 20 28 18 15 11 13 16 10 > 13 12 15 28 4 3 2 24 22 20 4 19 24 37 13 30 6 20 3 2 15 15 14 24 15 0 > 9 3 13 8 11 12 2 18 8 15 17 6 15 26 25 6 10 7 > 211=N 1463=I K104 -2(26F3.0)~ > 32 34 48 42 53 41 85 40 60 63 78 92 43 63 41 32 22 31 22 48 54 29 80 79 47 24 > 56 88 99127 95 66120100109 74 83 67 60 23 30 75 63 36 43 30 22 27 23 46 35 30 > 33 55 35 40 36 39 33 53 22 58 32 52 68 50 25 33 35 18 12 28 32 35 38 52 70 52 > 14 30 34 22 28 34 18 27 13 29 22 31 24 30 6 20 34 13 10 15 16 11 18 27 18 11 > 17 5 13 14 11 24 5 12 15 8 34 13 9 28 13 14 10 38 14 22 18 22 7 37 10 17 > 10 15 9 14 9 31 17 7 13 17 3 8 20 16 9 21 18 26 20 10 28 22 24 28 16 6 > 13 14 24 7 22 33 21 24 17 9 5 16 7 14 10 11 12 10 17 11 24 25 40 5 18 9 > 25 17 11 4 16 7 12 22 3 15 14 13 9 16 15 3 16 15 11 7 9 15 23 17 21 13 > 16 13 16 > 500=N 1487=I X002 -2(26F3.0)~ > 10 9 13 41 37 36 26 27 46 43 24 26 22 24 20 11 28 37 21 20 22 29 10 14 15 23 > 5 13 12 12 13 15 24 27 24 17 14 18 13 22 29 25 5 11 13 11 0 5 14 16 10 24 > 26 22 7 14 21 10 6 14 7 23 30 37 18 13 13 11 4 5 18 14 10 19 14 8 9 10 > 4 3 5 4 5 8 6 23 11 6 5 3 13 6 6 15 7 7 7 18 3 17 16 13 0 20 > 11 16 12 16 10 11 7 10 10 10 10 15 4 13 23 20 19 25 26 32 31 18 53 25 16 28 > 9 4 8 8 15 0 12 14 7 16 19 13 13 24 16 22 19 16 23 22 31 19 36 42 44 0 > 15 9 25 26 16 5 17 19 17 29 8 22 26 27 16 21 23 10 28 23 9 27 25 30 50 40 > 37 11 21 27 37 25 14 19 21 10 20 22 18 2 16 10 3 21 14 12 14 10 10 18 19 10 > 31 4 12 5 0 16 14 13 17 30 31 30 30 10 25 24 16 22 29 14 39 25 28 0 29 28 > 24 20 20 24 29 24 38 7 44 23 22 4 20 14 0 6 13 18 27 18 15 12 26 28 19 15 > 37 43 29 20 18 32 20 17 12 19 33 35 22 5 31 23 39 31 40 51 43 28 52 19 25 19 > 5 36 51 35 49 38 17 30 22 39 25 38 40 7 39 26 39 42 25 37 39 74 25 31 28 5 > 16 3 32 29 35 25 32 29 0 37 19 25 10 0 12 15 10 11 13 17 7 6 16 24 4 9 > 0 7 13 21 12 0 26 9 5 16 18 11 6 11 11 13 10 15 11 11 8 12 6 12 4 21 > 5 25 19 13 20 25 27 18 13 40 33 25 15 17 25 7 10 32 15 12 15 22 10 11 30 19 > 27 36 28 29 15 20 26 9 6 19 31 27 5 19 38 40 33 38 27 30 45 15 0 8 4 22 > 18 20 18 16 14 42 15 12 13 0 12 24 25 26 19 24 24 37 23 30 28 33 14 36 17 48 > 48 38 24 39 32 21 25 24 18 25 24 34 43 31 47 27 42 39 6 49 22 23 25 14 30 10 > 24 16 17 6 19 20 23 18 12 20 15 18 28 11 24 18 16 22 6 5 19 30 9 31 44 12 > 25 29 29 41 12 34 > 150=N 1529=I K010 -2(26F3.0)~ > 17 35 40 44 15 65 34 76 67150167106 38 45 68 22 84 30 10 69 51 41 27 67102106 > 29 40 87 62 48 60 86 41 66 91101 54 64 37 68 85 63 72 34 39 26 17 80 10 24 63 > 49 48 31117 26 53 77 43 2 54 4 19 19 35 14 24 29 65 50 30 35 27 6 33 35 26 > 35 43 30 55 22 26 39 21 25 33 28 2 11 10 20 2 18 22 11 33 30 18 30 42 16 69 > 46 51 39 44 57 22 48 46 43 12 31 16 41 14 22 11 43 25 25 51 12 58 42 16 7 22 > 45 4 27 5 8 2 11 21 21 12 16 7 11 9 11 2 8 13 13 6 > 273=N 1538=I K103 -2(26F3.0)~ > 49 80 46 25 40 46 17 32 33 15 23 21 15 16 21 22 37 17 19 48 35 29 40 48 44 36 > 51 52 27 40 31 42 47 30 65 34 37 44 23 65 41 34 70 46 29 18 65 27 47 43 44 30 > 74 37 50 44 56 21 49 32 58 39 30 33 38 21 24 63 57 45 48 58 34 23 34 28 37 55 > 49 17 29 32 35 50 17 23 67 51 67 50 23 27 68 40 39 27 37 29 17 27 17 36 33 40 > 13 27 15 44 29 25 16 27 14 15 50 27 41 18 24 10 22 30 10 26 24 19 10 31 45 42 > 49 72 53 42 35 29 15 17 19 24 19 19 14 10 15 19 6 4 21 15 13 21 18 21 20 25 > 14 18 7 8 2 4 6 10 5 7 17 23 24 24 11 22 13 8 21 18 10 30 21 32 7 18 > 10 11 15 13 12 16 8 23 2 27 19 14 10 10 18 17 13 12 23 32 20 19 2 17 18 12 > 25 20 25 17 8 16 21 10 5 3 13 17 6 4 7 13 6 17 12 15 18 20 16 21 4 11 > 11 2 11 16 12 17 14 7 8 11 18 12 11 8 11 14 9 15 14 11 16 14 20 10 10 6 > 3 13 6 11 10 12 9 12 16 10 8 3 7 > 256=N 1552=I K027 -2(26F3.0)~ > 24 14 9 5 3 18 23 22 29 24 35 45 53 47 30 36 13 26 24 25 31 47 26 39 10 39 > 19 20 39 28 46 31 62 21 54 38 22 2 40 14 21 26 50 37 38 24 42 51 26 26 33 23 > 22 42 44 37 35 37 45 32 27 73 34 31 42 33 5 15 23 35 7 51 45 34 40 40 29 40 > 51 22 27 38 40 54 45 47 33 51 68 43 12 22 7 22 21 16 14 46 42 35 56 4 47 56 > 43 19 44 48 18 50 42 24 51 25 33 52 42 37 25 23 28 30 13 9 31 32 17 11 27 7 > 6 23 2 18 29 26 25 26 21 22 26 35 20 45 2 20 2 6 27 20 11 29 31 69 43 34 > 20 36 35 7 29 41 6 49 36 35 3 40 38 37 32 9 33 23 19 46 8 49 40 44 37 40 > 41 9 12 38 32 26 33 22 7 44 33 25 26 39 41 33 34 12 34 25 22 24 38 81 16 15 > 4 36 15 17 14 28 28 36 15 19 7 31 23 4 29 28 16 40 27 3 25 30 35 40 44 27 > 35 41 26 42 40 12 15 36 31 7 45 19 11 37 3 23 15 17 15 10 14 13 > 432=N 1559=I R221 -2(26F3.0)~ > 18 32 24 21 35 43 36 39 43 31 54 42 38 42 50 24 36 17 32 35 19 62 87 46 48 67 > 35 59 43 29 0 25 11 13 16 27 24 20 13 18 22 10 12 11 17 13 20 14 17 16 18 17 > 11 13 22 17 13 20 24 7 8 7 11 8 18 20 17 13 22 12 29 49 28 28 36 27 35 60 > 53 8 34 53 28 5 17 15 23 21 8 17 21 30 27 33 19 21 40 40 18 30 54 41 41 71 > 33 30 27 41 73 49 40 36 39 47 61 19 29 26 24 11 13 19 11 19 32 26 8 27 38 24 > 43 27 37 30 23 13 29 10 21 10 4 21 18 11 28 45 59 33 33 27 34 20 19 25 23 11 > 36 40 30 18 31 42 44 35 23 27 31 35 50 14 43 40 25 37 41 37 19 27 39 28 30 50 > 19 5 26 30 33 29 51 43 34 35 33 41 34 19 35 36 36 30 12 5 34 29 38 19 39 36 > 33 20 38 10 21 26 3 31 35 22 37 34 3 17 17 34 28 33 35 29 27 23 39 32 18 28 > 39 49 23 35 26 27 43 10 23 19 20 23 16 29 2 25 24 28 18 2 17 18 13 19 15 20 1805. 1998-06-10 9:23:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 10 Jun 98 9:23:22 +6000 from: richard.tol@ivm.vu.nl subject: Naming lead authors to: acacia_conf First, e have now embarked on a process of naming our friends and colleagues to be lead authors in the ACACIA report. It may be a good idea to have some publications of these people as well. Not all those that have been named are obvious experts. Second, and again, we need to think what we want this report to do. We have just been through an IPCC Special Report on Regional Impacts, and preparations for the IPCC TAR are ongoing. We need to choose between doing preparatory work for IPCC, or doing something completely different. I prefer the latter. If we opt not to do a standard literature review, we could work towards more integration between sectors, or work more towards policy advice. I do not think the former is doable (although it is my preference). The latter is hard, but worth pursuing. If this is the course taken, we are not looking for detail-experts but for skilled communicators with a broad overlook. Third, and again, the outline of the report needs thought, and needs to reflect the purpose of the report. In any case, I do not think it is wise to single out extreme weather. The little that is known about the impact of future extreme weather should be placed in the relevant sector chapters. So little is known about the impact of past weather extremes that I doubt it deserves a separate chapter -- instead, we could ask each chapter to add a historical/empirical review, say of weather impacts on agriculture in the past 20 years. I doubt the purpose of common scenarios. Authors will not have time to analyse these. Although the impact of climate change on manufacturing, retailing, construction, insurance, tourism, migration and so on may be substantial, the body of literature is not. It is distortion of the state of the art to have a mining (say) chapter next to a coastal zone (say) chapter. Being a social scientist, singling out soils occurs strange to me. There is no Minister of Soils in any country I know, but there are ministers of agriculture and nature (through which soils make themselves felt). Fourth, an alternative structure would be: water resources, agriculture, un- and semi-maneged ecosystems, sea level rise, health and miscellaneous -- apart from the last, this is recognizable to the policy makers we may seek to inform. Each chapter could then follow this structure: mechanisms, past impacts of weather and climate, estimates of impacts of future changes, adaptation options. If agreed, I could think of some authors. Richard Tol 4389. 1998-06-12 15:40:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jun 12 15:40:39 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: tree ring data to: "Karin A. KOINIG" Dear Karin I enclose the data that make up our Figure 1. Note the different columns represent the actual sigma data and the temperatute estimates based on them as described in the paper. I can send a more local curve later if you wish but this will have to be constructed by weighted averaging of the existing area curves. There are other temperature proxies for the Alps which are not included here - tree rings by Holzhauser etc. Bset wishes for now Keith Year NHD1 NHLMT(est.) NHD2 1400 -0.042 -0.005 -0.304 1401 0.403 0.047 0.351 1402 0.220 0.026 0.463 1403 -0.642 -0.075 -0.267 1404 0.351 0.041 0.514 1405 -0.339 -0.039 -0.230 1406 0.255 0.030 0.364 1407 0.021 0.003 -0.370 1408 -1.153 -0.134 -0.751 1409 -0.805 -0.094 -0.762 1410 0.212 0.025 0.535 1411 0.367 0.043 0.832 1412 -0.198 -0.023 -0.402 1413 0.312 0.036 0.070 1414 -1.860 -0.217 -1.913 1415 -1.055 -0.123 -0.774 1416 -0.458 -0.053 -0.225 1417 0.404 0.047 -0.003 1418 0.581 0.068 0.627 1419 -0.760 -0.089 -0.722 1420 -1.540 -0.180 -1.732 1421 -0.584 -0.068 -0.118 1422 -1.559 -0.182 -1.653 1423 -0.537 -0.063 -0.713 1424 0.415 0.048 0.656 1425 1.392 0.162 1.241 1426 -1.014 -0.118 -0.634 1427 0.441 0.051 0.702 1428 -0.039 -0.005 0.087 1429 -0.405 -0.047 -0.408 1430 0.181 0.021 0.158 1431 0.560 0.065 0.363 1432 0.630 0.073 0.786 1433 0.548 0.064 0.699 1434 1.414 0.165 1.641 1435 -1.634 -0.191 -1.189 1436 -0.399 -0.047 -0.073 1437 0.902 0.105 0.937 1438 -1.716 -0.200 -1.822 1439 0.101 0.012 -0.188 1440 -1.696 -0.198 -1.505 1441 -0.187 -0.022 0.089 1442 0.115 0.013 -0.487 1443 0.972 0.113 0.027 1444 -1.550 -0.181 -1.347 1445 -0.863 -0.101 -1.377 1446 -2.203 -0.257 -1.313 1447 -1.831 -0.214 -1.858 1448 -2.574 -0.300 -2.012 1449 -1.343 -0.157 -2.325 1450 0.267 0.031 -0.334 1451 0.185 0.022 -0.311 1452 -0.413 -0.048 -0.179 1453 -4.240 -0.495 -4.046 1454 -0.171 -0.020 -0.744 1455 -1.687 -0.197 -1.968 1456 0.847 0.099 -0.140 1457 -1.456 -0.170 -1.243 1458 -0.612 -0.071 -1.547 1459 -0.849 -0.099 -1.239 1460 -1.924 -0.224 -0.977 1461 -1.920 -0.224 -1.646 1462 -2.063 -0.241 -1.610 1463 -2.040 -0.238 -2.084 1464 -0.391 -0.046 -0.672 1465 -0.068 -0.008 -0.435 1466 -0.486 -0.057 -1.377 1467 -1.900 -0.222 -1.313 1468 -1.811 -0.211 -1.172 1469 -0.617 -0.072 -0.668 1470 -0.676 -0.079 -0.263 1471 0.218 0.025 0.209 1472 -0.253 -0.030 -1.195 1473 1.106 0.129 -0.067 1474 -2.165 -0.252 -2.202 1475 -0.908 -0.106 -1.441 1476 -0.411 -0.048 -0.979 1477 0.403 0.047 0.122 1478 0.852 0.099 0.310 1479 -0.955 -0.111 -0.686 1480 -1.299 -0.152 -1.204 1481 -1.598 -0.186 -1.646 1482 0.017 0.002 -0.190 1483 -1.065 -0.124 -1.957 1484 0.481 0.056 0.312 1485 1.166 0.136 0.707 1486 0.274 0.032 0.038 1487 -1.180 -0.138 -1.469 1488 -0.591 -0.069 -0.692 1489 -0.370 -0.043 -0.474 1490 -0.748 -0.087 -0.678 1491 -1.276 -0.149 -1.003 1492 -0.243 -0.028 0.294 1493 -0.383 -0.045 -0.605 1494 -0.682 -0.080 -0.798 1495 -2.415 -0.282 -2.223 1496 -0.379 -0.044 0.076 1497 -0.927 -0.108 -1.306 1498 -0.253 -0.030 -0.648 1499 1.166 0.136 0.430 1500 0.093 0.011 -0.738 1501 -0.377 -0.044 -0.584 1502 0.317 0.037 -0.778 1503 0.463 0.054 0.507 1504 1.107 0.129 0.900 1505 -0.634 -0.074 -0.483 1506 -0.055 -0.006 0.265 1507 -1.181 -0.138 -1.034 1508 0.157 0.018 0.181 1509 -1.027 -0.120 -1.190 1510 -0.020 -0.002 -0.244 1511 -0.298 -0.035 -0.599 1512 -0.450 -0.052 -0.410 1513 0.057 0.007 0.638 1514 -1.108 -0.129 -0.799 1515 -0.186 -0.022 -0.152 1516 -0.773 -0.090 -1.105 1517 0.123 0.014 0.374 1518 0.065 0.008 0.915 1519 0.237 0.028 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-0.858 -0.100 -1.362 1560 -0.361 -0.042 -0.543 1561 0.791 0.092 0.428 1562 0.313 0.037 -0.159 1563 -0.585 -0.068 -0.503 1564 0.972 0.113 0.168 1565 1.451 0.169 1.437 1566 0.100 0.012 0.017 1567 -0.676 -0.079 -0.460 1568 -1.555 -0.181 -1.116 1569 -0.113 -0.013 0.033 1570 -0.921 -0.107 -1.375 1571 -1.391 -0.162 -1.388 1572 -1.619 -0.189 -2.216 1573 -1.227 -0.143 -0.960 1574 -0.118 -0.014 -0.285 1575 0.579 0.068 0.835 1576 -0.614 -0.072 -1.382 1577 -0.356 -0.042 -0.935 1578 -0.490 -0.057 -0.806 1579 -1.272 -0.148 -1.793 1580 -1.266 -0.148 -1.737 1581 -0.630 -0.073 -0.925 1582 0.237 0.028 -0.065 1583 -0.103 -0.012 -0.647 1584 -0.018 -0.002 -0.859 1585 -0.507 -0.059 -1.580 1586 -0.858 -0.100 -1.023 1587 -2.638 -0.308 -2.502 1588 -0.042 -0.005 -0.855 1589 -1.910 -0.223 -1.723 1590 -0.382 -0.045 -0.160 1591 -0.145 -0.017 0.017 1592 -0.305 -0.036 0.056 1593 -0.559 -0.065 -0.727 1594 -0.486 -0.057 -0.848 1595 -0.245 -0.029 -0.089 1596 -0.584 -0.068 -1.263 1597 -0.561 -0.065 -0.051 1598 1.080 0.126 1.084 1599 1.362 0.159 1.060 1600 -0.262 -0.031 0.187 1601 -6.903 -0.805 -6.754 1602 -1.734 -0.202 -2.407 1603 -0.669 -0.078 -0.760 1604 -1.548 -0.181 -1.549 1605 -0.926 -0.108 -0.605 1606 -0.973 -0.113 -1.754 1607 -0.665 -0.078 -2.099 1608 -0.977 -0.114 -0.917 1609 -0.556 -0.065 -0.853 1610 0.513 0.060 0.425 1611 0.026 0.003 -0.661 1612 -0.927 -0.108 -0.753 1613 1.707 0.199 1.194 1614 -1.096 -0.128 -1.353 1615 0.221 0.026 0.610 1616 -0.820 -0.096 -0.587 1617 -0.467 -0.054 0.038 1618 0.336 0.039 0.855 1619 -0.329 -0.038 0.595 1620 -0.230 -0.027 0.247 1621 -1.104 -0.129 -0.843 1622 -0.364 -0.042 -0.438 1623 -0.265 -0.031 -0.119 1624 -0.487 -0.057 0.390 1625 -0.017 -0.002 0.179 1626 -0.974 -0.114 -0.893 1627 -0.871 -0.102 -1.446 1628 0.208 0.024 -0.356 1629 0.021 0.002 0.144 1630 0.085 0.010 -0.508 1631 1.299 0.152 0.517 1632 0.491 0.057 -0.341 1633 -0.544 -0.063 -0.585 1634 0.687 0.080 0.093 1635 1.093 0.127 0.697 1636 1.820 0.212 0.487 1637 0.520 0.061 0.313 1638 -0.884 -0.103 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-1.617 1679 -1.606 -0.187 -2.649 1680 -1.178 -0.137 -2.290 1681 0.176 0.021 0.438 1682 -0.274 -0.032 -0.117 1683 1.175 0.137 0.692 1684 0.282 0.033 0.039 1685 -0.602 -0.070 -1.093 1686 1.783 0.208 0.750 1687 0.249 0.029 0.131 1688 -0.553 -0.065 0.697 1689 0.704 0.082 1.359 1690 0.274 0.032 0.806 1691 1.076 0.126 0.893 1692 -0.180 -0.021 0.380 1693 1.473 0.172 1.492 1694 0.929 0.108 1.050 1695 -3.500 -0.408 -3.640 1696 -1.143 -0.133 -2.495 1697 -1.058 -0.123 -0.771 1698 -3.082 -0.359 -3.397 1699 -2.963 -0.346 -2.497 1700 -1.445 -0.169 -1.280 1701 -1.398 -0.163 -1.837 1702 -0.358 -0.042 -0.757 1703 0.640 0.075 0.627 1704 0.660 0.077 0.326 1705 -0.759 -0.088 -0.500 1706 0.641 0.075 0.047 1707 0.914 0.107 0.354 1708 -0.349 -0.041 -1.030 1709 -1.310 -0.153 -1.907 1710 -0.058 -0.007 -0.704 1711 -0.299 -0.035 -0.250 1712 0.109 0.013 -0.154 1713 0.039 0.005 0.340 1714 -1.613 -0.188 -0.872 1715 -0.136 -0.016 -0.671 1716 -1.242 -0.145 -0.492 1717 -0.181 -0.021 -0.140 1718 0.104 0.012 -0.529 1719 -0.063 -0.007 0.245 1720 1.058 0.123 1.127 1721 -0.388 -0.045 -0.647 1722 1.537 0.179 1.217 1723 -0.150 -0.017 0.386 1724 0.167 0.019 -0.203 1725 -1.458 -0.170 -1.843 1726 -0.475 -0.055 -0.727 1727 0.478 0.056 0.469 1728 1.311 0.153 0.501 1729 0.264 0.031 -0.389 1730 -1.579 -0.184 -2.262 1731 -2.127 -0.248 -2.326 1732 -0.632 -0.074 -1.525 1733 0.181 0.021 -0.412 1734 1.328 0.155 0.901 1735 -0.513 -0.060 -0.972 1736 -0.419 -0.049 -0.582 1737 1.074 0.125 0.663 1738 -0.900 -0.105 -1.760 1739 0.255 0.030 -0.039 1740 -2.606 -0.304 -1.718 1741 -0.632 -0.074 -0.773 1742 -2.352 -0.274 -2.644 1743 -0.148 -0.017 -0.368 1744 -0.638 -0.074 -0.802 1745 -0.041 -0.005 -0.499 1746 -0.901 -0.105 -0.945 1747 0.876 0.102 1.002 1748 -0.965 -0.113 -0.895 1749 -0.430 -0.050 -0.364 1750 0.475 0.055 0.693 1751 0.266 0.031 -0.512 1752 0.230 0.027 0.477 1753 -0.284 -0.033 0.567 1754 -0.184 -0.021 -0.422 1755 -0.052 -0.006 0.453 1756 0.512 0.060 0.595 1757 -0.159 -0.019 0.810 1758 -1.046 -0.122 -0.569 1759 0.033 0.004 0.345 1760 -0.712 -0.083 -0.356 1761 -0.580 -0.068 -0.242 1762 -0.494 -0.058 -0.867 1763 -0.466 -0.054 -1.071 1764 -1.266 -0.148 -1.371 1765 -0.408 -0.048 -0.070 1766 0.368 0.043 0.273 1767 -1.089 -0.127 -0.690 1768 -0.453 -0.053 -1.120 1769 -0.340 -0.040 -0.676 1770 -0.969 -0.113 -0.713 1771 -0.501 -0.058 0.081 1772 -0.925 -0.108 -1.345 1773 -0.845 -0.099 -0.892 1774 1.371 0.160 1.063 1775 -0.196 -0.023 -0.301 1776 0.538 0.063 0.412 1777 -0.298 -0.035 -0.834 1778 0.112 0.013 -0.041 1779 -1.408 -0.164 -1.791 1780 -0.200 -0.023 -0.418 1781 0.024 0.003 -0.556 1782 -0.046 -0.005 -0.583 1783 -2.349 -0.274 -2.507 1784 0.108 0.013 0.011 1785 0.467 0.054 0.160 1786 -0.284 -0.033 -0.286 1787 -1.091 -0.127 -1.177 1788 0.144 0.017 -0.129 1789 0.048 0.006 0.135 1790 -1.798 -0.210 -2.130 1791 0.160 0.019 0.387 1792 0.314 0.037 0.686 1793 0.883 0.103 0.616 1794 0.768 0.090 0.418 1795 0.098 0.011 0.087 1796 0.947 0.110 0.787 1797 -1.190 -0.139 -2.194 1798 0.964 0.112 0.849 1799 0.014 0.002 -0.340 1800 -0.321 -0.037 -0.451 1801 -0.963 -0.112 -1.833 1802 0.588 0.069 0.299 1803 0.777 0.091 1.286 1804 1.219 0.142 0.995 1805 0.249 0.029 0.139 1806 -0.434 -0.051 -0.451 1807 0.998 0.116 0.549 1808 0.076 0.009 0.043 1809 -1.301 -0.152 -1.604 1810 -1.905 -0.222 -2.677 1811 -1.248 -0.146 -1.470 1812 -1.407 -0.164 -1.754 1813 -1.553 -0.181 -1.787 1814 -1.540 -0.180 -1.356 1815 -1.528 -0.178 -1.985 1816 -4.326 -0.504 -3.361 1817 -3.762 -0.439 -3.181 1818 -2.454 -0.286 -3.324 1819 -2.213 -0.258 -2.359 1820 0.149 0.017 -0.738 1821 -0.652 -0.076 -0.977 1822 0.241 0.028 -0.312 1823 -0.056 -0.006 -0.453 1824 -0.610 -0.071 -0.833 1825 0.008 0.001 -0.183 1826 0.965 0.113 0.918 1827 -0.172 -0.020 -0.221 1828 1.293 0.151 0.659 1829 0.409 0.048 0.394 1830 1.054 0.123 0.546 1831 0.698 0.081 0.501 1832 -1.572 -0.183 -1.623 1833 -2.045 -0.238 -1.857 1834 0.711 0.083 0.364 1835 -2.021 -0.236 -1.969 1836 -2.482 -0.289 -2.398 1837 -2.778 -0.324 -3.226 1838 -1.420 -0.166 -1.420 1839 -0.432 -0.050 -0.505 1840 0.273 0.032 0.183 1841 0.609 0.071 0.239 1842 -0.473 -0.055 -0.676 1843 -1.108 -0.129 -1.263 1844 0.559 0.065 0.622 1845 -1.369 -0.160 -1.152 1846 1.504 0.175 1.220 1847 0.287 0.033 0.389 1848 -0.517 -0.060 -0.923 1849 -0.765 -0.089 -0.949 1850 -0.049 -0.006 0.029 1851 -0.465 -0.054 -0.221 1852 0.009 0.001 -0.022 1853 -0.287 -0.034 -0.083 1854 0.090 0.010 0.071 1855 -1.101 -0.128 -0.912 1856 -0.333 -0.039 -0.615 1857 -1.409 -0.164 -1.606 1858 0.349 0.041 0.268 1859 0.105 0.012 0.121 1860 -0.662 -0.077 -0.713 1861 1.020 0.119 1.076 1862 -1.828 -0.213 -2.264 1863 -0.205 -0.024 -0.365 1864 -0.955 -0.111 -0.990 1865 -0.867 -0.101 -0.866 1866 -1.284 -0.150 -1.462 1867 -1.078 -0.126 -1.288 1868 0.624 0.073 0.789 1869 -0.082 -0.010 -0.014 1870 -0.040 -0.005 -0.065 1871 -0.663 -0.077 -0.630 1872 0.090 0.010 0.050 1873 0.078 0.009 0.034 1874 -0.362 -0.042 -0.394 1875 0.167 0.020 0.134 1876 -1.315 -0.153 -1.350 1877 -0.081 -0.009 -0.410 1878 2.173 0.253 1.959 1879 0.199 0.023 0.089 1880 -0.910 -0.106 -0.846 1881 -0.264 -0.031 -0.377 1882 -0.285 -0.033 -0.411 1883 -0.302 -0.035 -0.286 1884 -2.887 -0.337 -3.088 1885 -1.792 -0.209 -1.755 1886 -1.040 -0.121 -1.313 1887 -0.109 -0.013 -0.168 1888 -0.950 -0.111 -0.746 1889 0.368 0.043 0.209 1890 -0.817 -0.095 -0.637 1891 -1.310 -0.153 -1.316 1892 -0.312 -0.036 -0.245 1893 -0.370 -0.043 -0.393 1894 0.004 0.001 0.183 1895 0.232 0.027 0.149 1896 -0.884 -0.103 -1.015 1897 0.749 0.087 0.856 1898 1.367 0.159 1.256 1899 -2.096 -0.244 -2.211 1900 -0.104 -0.012 -0.295 1901 0.785 0.092 0.586 1902 -0.943 -0.110 -0.979 1903 0.037 0.004 0.107 1904 -0.292 -0.034 -0.179 1905 -0.769 -0.090 -0.896 1906 0.654 0.076 0.785 1907 -1.143 -0.133 -0.860 1908 0.581 0.068 0.609 1909 -0.786 -0.092 -0.791 1910 -0.017 -0.002 -0.202 1911 0.545 0.064 0.534 1912 -3.328 -0.388 -3.375 1913 0.188 0.022 0.341 1914 -0.946 -0.110 -1.010 1915 0.289 0.034 0.062 1916 -0.792 -0.092 -0.970 1917 -0.783 -0.091 -0.522 1918 -1.977 -0.231 -1.812 1919 1.179 0.137 1.068 1920 0.145 0.017 0.233 1921 0.443 0.052 0.497 1922 0.519 0.061 0.344 1923 -1.310 -0.153 -1.033 1924 -0.024 -0.003 0.021 1925 -0.634 -0.074 -0.718 1926 0.337 0.039 0.411 1927 -0.124 -0.014 -0.012 1928 0.587 0.068 0.671 1929 -0.258 -0.030 -0.049 1930 1.382 0.161 1.290 1931 0.963 0.112 0.823 1932 1.351 0.158 1.327 1933 0.565 0.066 0.549 1934 0.292 0.034 0.594 1935 0.504 0.059 0.506 1936 0.547 0.064 0.625 1937 1.629 0.190 1.463 1938 1.530 0.178 1.429 1939 0.234 0.027 0.067 1940 1.038 0.121 0.902 1941 -0.993 -0.116 -1.147 1942 1.511 0.176 1.488 1943 1.392 0.162 1.719 1944 0.428 0.050 0.383 1945 1.287 0.150 1.562 1946 1.002 0.117 1.054 1947 0.122 0.014 0.427 1948 0.699 0.081 0.551 1949 0.565 0.066 0.575 1950 -0.332 -0.039 -0.312 1951 0.360 0.042 0.220 1952 0.733 0.085 0.617 1953 1.647 0.192 1.753 1954 -0.260 -0.030 -0.326 1955 0.373 0.044 0.186 1956 -1.175 -0.137 -0.708 1957 -0.062 -0.007 -0.109 1958 -0.263 -0.031 -0.152 1959 0.134 0.016 0.115 1960 1.436 0.167 1.268 1961 0.869 0.101 0.894 1962 -0.573 -0.067 -0.522 1963 -0.372 -0.043 -0.409 1964 -1.031 -0.120 -0.831 1965 -2.101 -0.245 -2.092 1966 0.572 0.067 0.506 1967 0.090 0.010 0.169 1968 -2.383 -0.278 -2.319 1969 -0.979 -0.114 -0.946 1970 -0.126 -0.015 -0.249 1971 -0.543 -0.063 -0.545 1972 -2.038 -0.238 -2.256 1973 -0.162 -0.019 -0.223 1974 -1.135 -0.132 -0.898 1975 -1.177 -0.137 -1.194 1976 -1.909 -0.223 -1.889 1977 -0.635 -0.074 -0.613 1978 -2.804 -0.327 -2.893 1979 0.010 0.001 -0.130 1980 -1.851 -0.216 -2.097 1981 0.381 0.044 0.392 1982 -2.071 -0.242 -1.901 1983 0.148 0.017 0.053 1984 -0.370 -0.043 -0.800 1985 -1.031 -0.120 -1.194 1986 -0.655 -0.076 -0.964 1987 -0.548 -0.064 -0.934 1988 0.101 0.012 0.078 1989 -0.878 -0.102 -1.019 1990 -1.027 -0.120 -0.962 1991 -0.224 -0.026 -0.282 1992 -2.562 -0.299 -1.916 1993 -2.194 -0.256 -2.264 1994 0.339 0.040 0.295 At 08:33 PM 6/8/98 +0100, you wrote: >Dear Keith, > >Thanks for your fast and cooperative reply! We were especially >interested in your data in Figure 1 on page 451 (Nature 393): >estimates of northern hemisphere temperature anomalies. > >I do not know which of your sets is the best as we are studying high >alpine lakes in Austria. So although our study sites are located in >the region which you separated as southern European sites the "SEUR >data" including also mediterranean sites for the high alpine sites >might give too high estimates ... may be the data for the >northern hemisphere - or SEUR +NEUR are better?? > >We are looking for long term data covering almost the last 800-1000 >years. "Our" glacier data go back to 1600 and they are based on one >glacier only ... We compare them with pH shifts in lakes - >reconstructed from diatom assemblages for the last 800 years: (warm >periods = higher pH and vice versa). However, we have no data for >the whole period for central Europe + Austria/Switzerland ... that >would probably be the ideal data set ... > >I do not know whether you need other details as well? We were >discussing your graphs and thought of comparing them with our pH >shifts... (We tried to do so roughly by comparing the peaks). > >Best wishes and thanks once more for you prompt reply, Karin > > > > > > > > 4675. 1998-06-13 11:33:06 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 11:33:06 -0600 from: Murari Lal subject: TGCIA Report to: "tgcia@meto.gov.uk" Dear Martin, I have gone through your report on TGCIA activities during the past one year, its proposed recommendations to WG I and II and to TAR Scoping Participants> I have also read Tim's comments (on GM) and Mike Hulme's comments on TGCIA draft report. Inspite of amny limitations, the setting up and starting DDCs, and preparing a working GM has been the major achievements of TGCIA. Much of the credit for this goes to UEA and DKRZ collaborators for the DDC and to Tim for the GM. Ofcourse, we all have tried our best to offer constructive suggestions during the process. I fully agree with the proposed method of reporting TGCIA activity to the IPCC Bureau and Plenary and to TAR Scoping Meet. I can realise that it is tough to get data from Modelling Centre too quick as it takes a whole lot of time in extraction and checks. Hopefully DDC would have CCC and GFDL data in a couple of months. If TGCIA is to continue as also DDCs, availability of continued resources is the major issue and needs to be sorted out between Martin, DDC Managers and IPCC WG I and WG II Chairs. A definite mandate and the time schedule also need to be chalked out. The most crucial issue for TAR would perhaps be the scaling issues (and the model vise validation aspects underneath it) that need to be considered seriously in the mext few months. The issue of selection of a particular region or regions is critical and need to be decided perhaps by the decision makers at IPCC Bureau or Plenary keeping in view of the scientific information available or likely to be available in near future. Unfortunately, I would not be able to attend the TAR Scoping Meeting as I have not been invited. Partly, this was due to delay on part of our Govt in forwarding a list of names to IPCC Secretariat and then perhaps the Vice Chair to IPCC from India may have other more competent choices. Anyway, currently I am visiting NCAR for 7 weeks and am looking into the intraseasonal variability as simulated in CSM runs and this would keep me fully occupied until mid-July. Tim - if you need my help in re-drafting/updating a portion of GM for its update, please let me know. I had submitted a proposal to START (Prof. Fuch and Hassan Virji is aware of it) in February 1998 to seek their funding support ($45000 which also included travel cost and boarding and lodging expenses of about 40 participants) to organise a 3 week's training course in Nov - Dec 1998 on regional climate change and impact assessment for scientists from south Asian and Middle East country Scientists. I spoke to Dr. Virji in March when he was visiting India. Can TGCIA or IPCC recommend to START for this support? UNEP has regretted funding but offered providing an expert for this course. USAID and APN have kept silent thus far and time is now running out. I close this note here now with best of luck to TGCIAians who are going to meet in Germany to discuss some of these issues at greater length. Until mid-July I can be reached at either lal@al.noaa.gov or mlal@ucar.edu (Fax: 303-497 5373; 303-497 2699). Ofcourse all e-mails to my IIT Delhi address would continue to be read by me. with best regards to all, Lal 3369. 1998-06-15 12:03:28 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 15 Jun 1998 12:03:28 -0600 (MDT) from: Linda Mearns subject: Comments on Draft TGCIA Report to: tgcia@meto.gov.uk TGCIAers: My comments, Linda COMMENTS ON DRAFT TGCIA REPORT, received June 9, 1998. Any sections for which I have no specific comments are ones that I largely agree with. Under 2.1 OUTPUTS -- II. I assume that whether the guidance material is to be a reviewed IPCC document will be discussed at the scoping meeting? I like Filippo's idea of dividing the guidance material into two parts. (And with which it appears TIm also agrees). However, I think all this must be considered in light of what we do about a Scenarios Chapter in WGI and WGII. III. a. Inventory of Air-Ocean GCMs - Air should be changed to Atmosphere III. b. In principle, yes WGI TSU could handle this, but I think good coordination with WG II would be essential -- the point of making this inventory is the use of the regional models for climate change scenarios development -- in this regard it really is the purview of both WG's. Also, I repeat here a comment I have made several times now, that has not been addressed. It's fine not to address it now, but I'd like to know if we will ever address it or will the whole idea be dropped? This is a comment I included in response to agenda items: Point 3.1c, however, is incomplete. As I indicated to Richard Moss a few weeks ago, M. Noguer, L. Mearns, and F. Giorgi were charged with coming up with a plan for doing some intercomparisons of regional models. I have gone ahead and discussed some possible plans with some of the major regional modelers in the world. This has included Renee LaPrise, Machenauer, John McGregor. I need to contact Richard Jones as well. What I disussed was doing an intercomparison of regional model responses to the same external forcings in the same region. A preliminary region and possible nesting GCMs have been discussed. We should either go forward to firm up these plans, or abandon them. I have found the regional modelers quite willing to participate. Under 2.2 RECOMMENDATIONS III. a) I LIKE THE OPENING STATEMENT, but I feel we should make a STRONGER STATEMENT regarding how this recognition is to be expressed. I think we should explicitly recommend a chapter or chapters on climate change scenario development, and EMPHASIZE ITS (THEIR) ROLE IN UNIFYING WG I and II WORK. I feel this is still leaving the details to the scoping meeting, as seemed to be the general will of TGCIAers, but makes a stronger statement in the report. Of course you, Martin and Richard, know a great deal more about the politics of IPCC than I do. My reasoning is based on the simple principle of asking for 100%. I fear if we don't make a strong statement in the report, it will be easier to whittle the scenarios down to a sub section of another chapter. I really don't think it makes much sense to have it as part of a regional analysis chapter. b) Regions -- I'm not sure the second statement is very meaningful, since it seems very unlikely that there would be time now to develop regional scenarios for TAR, depending on what you mean by regional scenarios -- I assume this has to mean some form of higher resolution scenario (either downscaling or regional modeling). The statement as it stands is pretty bland, but I agree that we should say something. But we can't we say a little more here? Perhaps at least make a statement to recommend regional intercomparisons of downscaling techniques? I believe we did go so far as to encourage comparative studies (see my point above in 2.1 III.b). 3. REMAINING WORK Yes, I think work on REGIONAL SCENARIOS could become a major task for the TGCIA for the next two years. I assume we don't have to become extremely detailed about the task at this point. This could entail recommending further comparisons, or perhaps revisiting selection of scenarios, depending on how this discussion goes in the scoping meeting. An additional area could be in the ANNOTATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS -- i.e., work in trying to determine the effect of errors in climate model control runs on the scenarios produced. I think this would be a good task for further unifying WG I and WG II activities. -- ****************************************************************************** Dr. Linda O. Mearns Phone: 303 497 8124 Scientist Fax: 303 497 8125 Environmental and Societal Impacts Group e-mail: lindam@ucar.edu NCAR P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307 1183. 1998-06-17 09:24:29 ______________________________________________________ cc: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk date: Wed, 17 Jun 1998 09:24:29 +0100 from: Phil Jones subject: Something far more interesting to: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu Mike, Tim Osborn is resubmitting a NERC proposal to work on paleo data/reconstructions. NERC is the UK NSF. He would like to put your name down as a collaborator, to work on the project for 0.5hrs per week. 0.5 is the minimum value we can put down. All you would have to do though is one of the following : - run your reconstruction method through some data we give you - give us your program and we run it here - come to some agreement about your basic data used in the Nature paper One of the first two is OK, but the latter in the longer-term would be preferable. We can live without the latter, though. The main benefit from our point of view is joint work, so you would be a co-author on at least one paper resulting from the work. You will also get to see others for comments etc. We are reasonably confident of success as we've been asked to resubmit the proposal from a year ago. We need an answer, hopefully positive, in the next couple of days. Cheers Phil Dr Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1907. 1998-06-19 10:47:36 ______________________________________________________ cc: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk date: Fri, 19 Jun 1998 10:47:36 -0600 (MDT) from: Linda Mearns subject: Re: Regional models and the IPCC DDC to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) Mike, Maria, Yes, I know the PIRCS program and have been at some of their meetings. They will be using my stats package to do some of their comparisons. I think they are definitely doing some very good comparisons, but I also know that they are rather behind schedule, and I rather doubt they will have what Ray says they will have by the end of the year. However, we are all being pushed rather hard by the US Assemssment demands, so maybe they will. At any rate, the regional modelers I talked to (who are also involved with PIRCS) didn't indicate that they were participating in these particular runs. One of the problems with PIRCS is that they don't have resources to pay people to do runs, so this of course affects people's motivations, and priorities. (Not that the IPCC is about to provide any funding either). At any rate, I discussed doing some runs over western Canada, with Machenhuaer, Rene Laprise, John McGregor, and Filippo. They were all interested in doing this. We chose western Canada for its complex coasline, topography, and also because it isn't the US. And it would help the Canadians a bit, since they have already worked in the region, and they are having some difficulties with their model. So this would involve four different regional models. I think we should follow up on this. We (at NCAR) already have a smaller project going with John McGregor comparing the Australian regional model with the RegCM2 in the Southeastern US. Also, Machenauer showed some interesting results at a workshop I was at in Canada a couple of months ago. They were results from two different regional models using transient boundary conditions from, I believe, the ECHAM4. The two models produced different responses. Perhaps we (Maria, Filippo, Mike, me) could have a discussion about all this in Germany. Cheers, Linda >Ray, > >Thank you for your email. The IPCC Task Group set up to oversee the >establishment of the DDC has been preparing its summary report to go before >the IPCC Bureau in July. Regional modelling and the issue of selecting >regions for IPCC focus has been part of that discussion. > >At present, we have not felt it appropriate for the DDC to incorporate >results from RCMs for a number of reasons that I won't elaborate on here. >Clearly, IPCC will be reviewing the science of regional climate modelling >in the TAR and the Guidance Material on climate scenarios being prepared by >the TGCIA (Tim Carter co-ordinating) will also address the question of how >valuable RCM results are for impacts analysis. > >If the TGCIA and DDC win a renewed mandate from IPCC this summer then over >the next 1-2 years we may well look at criteria for the inclusion of RCM >results in the DDC and at that stage your offer may well be important. For >now, it remains a little premature. > >I look forward to meeting you again in September. > >Regards, > >Mike > > >At 16:58 02/06/98 -0500, you wrote: >>Dear Mike, >> >>It was a pleasure to meet you at last month's LINK conference. You may >>recall our conversation over dinner when we briefly discussed the PIRCS >>project. One of the prime motivations for our regional modeling work under >>PIRCS is to provide high resolution climate change projections for the >>impacts assessment community, especially in the context of the the IPCC >>TAR. Thus we are very interested in furnishing our results to the IPCC >>data distribution centre. >> >>By the end of this year, we expect to have at least 10 years of control >>climate and CO2 scenario results from at least three different regional >>models over North America, driven by HadCM2 output. There is a strong >>possibility that this will be expanded to 20 years of output from up to >>five different regional models. Below is appended an abstract for the >>upcoming University of East Anglia "Climate and History" conference which >>gives an overview of these runs. Negotiations are presently underway to >>fund a similar set of regional projections driven by a different GCM. >> >>Please let me know if you think there is a place in the DDC for these >>regional scenarios as a supplement to the global models. We look forward >>to providing the regional output for wider use. >> >>Regards, >>Ray Arritt >> >> >> >>Regional Climate Change for Impacts Analysis: >>Evaluating Ensemble Projections >> >>R.W. Arritt, E.S. Takle, W.J. Gutowski Jr. and Z. Pan >>Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011 USA >>Telephone +1-515-294-9870, fax +1-515-294-2619 >>email rwarritt@iastate.edu >> >>J. Hesselbjerg Christensen >>Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, >>DK-2100 Copenhagen Ř Denmark >> >>Oral presentation is preferred; poster presentation is acceptable. >> >>The discussions following the Kyoto Protocol have emphasized the need to >>understand better the potential regional impacts of global climate change. >>Impacts on agriculture, water resources, human health, and ecosystems are >>tied to climate change over regions (provinces, counties or states) rather >>than to changes in broad continental or global averages. It is therefore >>imperative to understand and, ideally, to predict how global climate change >>is manifested at these regional scales. >> >>The horizontal resolution of present-day numerical general circulation >>models (GCMs) is too coarse to provide satisfactory depictions of regional >>climate change. Studies of regional climate-change impacts thus require >>methodologies to translate GCM output to smaller scales. Using the GCM >>output to drive limited-area atmospheric simulations of climate change on >>regional scales is a promising but relatively new approach and research is >>actively underway to assess its merits. In response to a challenge from >>the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) of the World Climate >>Research Programme (WCRP), we are coordinating a community-based project to >>examine the validity of the regional climate modelling approach and to >>assess its added value relative to GCM predictions. >> >>An international team of nine modeling groups from North America, Europe >>and Australia is conducting the first stage of this research, in which >>sub-seasonal (60 day) simulations are being performed for two extreme >>events in the central United States. Preliminary results indicate >>strengths and weaknesses common to these regional models as well as >>occasional substantial differences between models. The second stage is >>being performed using three of these regional models to simulate 10 years >>of climate for the central United States. These simulations are being run >>with three sets of lateral boundary conditions: >> >>· First, climate of the recent past (1979-1988, included within the AMIP >>period) is being simulated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis output to provide the >>same initial and boundary conditions for all three of the regional models. >>These results can be compared directly to observed data in order to >>establish the models’ skill at replicating regional climate and its >>variability. Using three distinct regional models gives a preliminary >>indication of the robustness of regional climate projections. >> >>· Second, these three models will perform 10-year simulations of regional >>climate for the same location but with initial and boundary conditions >>supplied from Hadley Centre GCM simulations of present climate. By >>comparing these results with the preceding simulations and with >>observations we can identify biases that are attributable to driving the >>regional models with large-scale information from this GCM rather than from >>observations. >> >>· The third set of simulations will be identical to the second except that >>initial and boundary data will be taken from Hadley Centre output for >>future climate perturbed by increased greenhouse gases and by aerosol >>effects (around the year 2050). Comparison of these results with the >>preceding two sets allows us to interpret the projected regional climate >>change in light of the errors induced both by the regional models and by >>the use of the GCM-supplied initial and boundary conditions. >> >>We are coordinating our efforts with statistical downscaling research and >>other regional climate modeling projects such as the European Community >>MERCURE project. Output from these simulations will be prepared for use by >>impacts analysts for the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental >>Panel on Climate Change. >> >> >>_____________________________________________________________________ >>Raymond W. Arritt tel (515) 294-4758 >>Associate Professor fax (515) 294-2619 >>Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011 USA >>e-mail: rwarritt@iastate.edu web: http://www.mesoscale.iastate.edu >> > -- ****************************************************************************** Quote of the week: ``Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggy" until you can find a rock'' Dr. Linda O. Mearns Phone: 303 497 8124 Scientist Fax: 303 497 8125 Environmental and Societal Impacts Group e-mail: lindam@ucar.edu NCAR P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307 4317. 1998-06-23 16:44:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: Robert.Wasson@anu.edu.au, rbattarb@geography.ucl.ac.uk, hzimmerm@nsf.gov, gasse@cerege.fr, keith.alverson@pages.unibe.ch, morais@igbp.kva.se, Marie-Jose.Gaillard-Lemdahl@geol.lu.se date: Tue, 23 Jun 1998 16:44:21 +0200 from: Frank Oldfield subject: PAGES FOCUS 3 to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, messerli@giub.unibe.ch, patrick.dedeckker@anu.edu.au, ztguo@mimi.cnc.ac.cn, laurent.labeyrie@cfr.cnrs-gif.fr, yugo@ees.hokudai.ac.jp, 141tcp@cosmos.wits.ac.za, jto@paleosun.ngdc.noaa.gov, t.pedersen@geocean.u-bordeaux.fr, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu, domraynaud@glaciog.grenet.fr, matti.saarnisto@gsf.fi, r21024@er.uqam.ca, pbonin@lanet.losandes.com.ar, lautenschlager@dkrz.de, gbpant@tropmet.ernet.in Dear colleagues, This is a hasty first draft (both as a Word attachment and as unformatted e-mail text) of notes on our recently agreed plans for the development of Focus 3 (Human interactions in past environmental changes)within PAGES. Those of you who were at the meeting in Pallanza will recognize it as an expansion of the preliminary ideas presented and endorsed there. My intention is to circulate a revised version of this text, as a Newsletter item and via e-mail, as soon as possible after my return to Bern, July 18. To that end, I would very much welcome any observations you would like to make, any suggestions for changes or improvements and any ideas about key people to contact. With best wishes, Frank ---------------------------- PAGES Focus 3: A new initiative on past human impacts The main thrust of the PAGES program hitherto has been towards a better understanding of past climate change and its implications for the future. Focus 3, which is concerned with the past impact of human activity on ecological and hydrological systems, has never been fully articulated, though significant progress has been made in one specific area - human impact on fluvial systems- thanks to the efforts of Bon Wasson. At the recent PAGES SSC meeting, held in Pallanza, N. Italy, June 19-21, an overall strategy was presented and endorsed. This strategy envisages seven interlinked themes as set out below. Their coordination and their articulation as PAGES Activities and Tasks will be the responsibility of a small steering group, yet to be identified. The goals of the paleoscientists involved in this exercise will include the following: 1. To define, promote and pursue areas of shared interest between PAGES and other IGBP project elements. 2. To contribute fully to the PAGES, and eventually IGBP, syntheses currently being undertaken 3. To lay the basis for the further development of these themes during the next stage of IGBP's work from the year 2000 onwards. The themes briefly noted below have yet to be fully defined and, in some cases, leaders have yet to be identified. A workshop to develop science and implementation plans will be held in late 98/ early 99. Meanwhile, colleagues interested in contributing to this aspect of PAGES work are invited to contact the IPO and its Executive Director (frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch) who will be responsible for the overall coordination of Focus 3 in its early stages. SEVEN THEMES The themes envisaged at this stage are as follows: 1. The history of greenhouse gas exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere. These exchanges are of major concern in relation to understanding present day and future carbon dioxide and methane fluxes and budgets. There is an urgent need to improve our insight into the way past changes in land cover and hydrology have affected the fluxes and reservoirs over the non-marine part of the biosphere. The task spans a range of themes, from the past carbon balance in wetlands, to the impact of both deforestation and reforestation on CO2 fluxes at both regional and global scales. One major advantage of undertaking this task for the past lies in the way in which it can be linked, on a range of timescales, to the traced gas record in ice cores. The task is seen as contributing to the GAIM led 'paleo-trace-gas challenge' and as helping to forge links between PAGES and other project elements such as GCTE and BAHC especially. 2. Past biogeochemical fluxes within fluvial systems. This theme is closely linked to the next two and it embraces the concerns of the BLOP report (proper title goes here) as well as one of the main tasks for PAGES within the IGBP inter project initiative on 'Continental Aquatic Systems.' It is also currently being actively promoted by the LUCIFS project (Land Use and Climate Impacts on Fluvial Systems during the Period of Agriculture) led by Bob Wasson. Further information on this project is available viaŠ 3. The historical context of multiple threats to both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Climate variability and future climate change are only one factor, and perhaps often not the most important factor, in the complex of threats facing both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Studies of soil erosion, surface water acidification and eutrophication as well as the amelioration of the effects of these processes requires that they be set in historical context. Lake sediments serve as archives of all these processes, including the more recently recognized threats posed by increased nitrogen deposition and contamination by a range of 'new' compounds. Well-focused paleodata is essential for setting present day monitoring in time context as well as for model evaluation. This may be best illustrated by work on the history of acidification and eutrophication carried out worldwide over the last two to three decades in response to urgent environmental problems. 4. Historical perspectives on water quality/lake ecosystems. This theme is closely linked to the ones above and reflects a significant part of PAGES input to the IGBP 'Continental Aquatic Systems' inter-project already mentioned. It has now been accepted as a PAGES Activity within Focus 3, led by Rick Battarbee. 5. Non-linear ecosystem changes in the geologically recent past. Many researchers within the IGBP community rely on developing models of change through time by postulating temporal linkages between the different elements in a spatial mosaic. This approach has both strengths and weaknesses. One of the latter arises from the problem of rapid non-linear shifts in ecosystem function once key thresholds (e.g. in water retention or nutrient cycling) are transgressed. The paleo record is rich in evidence for such changes and there is a need to generate a better awareness of their causes and effects especially where the record from the past can be used to improve our understanding of highly stressed ecosystems at the present day. 6. Global and regional time-slice reconstructions The well-developed BIOME 6000 program is an example of this type of activity. The need now is for reconstructions, especially of terrestrial vegetation and land cover, for the last 200 - 300 years, the period of rapidly accelerating change and human impact. This will call for an integration of paleorecords from sources as diverse as pollen analyses and past tax returns, and it will contribute directly to the needs of GCTE and LUCC, as well as to the theme identified under 1 above. It will be one of the themes in a joint PAGES-LUCC workshop planned for November, 1998. 7. The historical context of contemporary and future changes in areas of high 'value' and/or vulnerability. In several cases, LUCC and GCTE, for example, envision a detailed focus on a specific region. In one case at least, the LBA in Amazonia, there is a coordinated IGBP activity across a wide range of Project Elements. Where such regions are defined, whether as transects across ecotones or as areas of concentrated research, PAGES can play an important role in placing changes in present day ecosystems and in the hydrology of the region in a longer time perspective. This can provide a dynamic baseline for future monitoring, an insight into processes operating on timescales longer than the span of available direct observations, and a quantitative estimate of the range of natural climate variability in the recent past. The capacity to do this will differ in different parts of the world, since it depends on the presence of suitable paleo-archives, ideally high resolution ones with records that come through continuously to the present day. Full exploitation of these rests on an acknowledgement that PAGES shares the task of understanding processes rather than simply providing 'historical reconstructions'. Many key processes in the climate system, at the ecosystem level and within hydrological systems, operate on decadal to century timescales. Establishing their functioning and their effects has an important role to play in understanding present and future earth system dynamics on all spatial scales. AN EYE ON THE FUTURE The themes outlined above must be a crucial part of PAGES' and IGBP's overall strategy for several reasons. From the PAGES standpoint, we have to realize that no amount of paleoreconstruction can fully prepare us for future changes and future impacts operating on the present day landscape. The effects of human activity over the last ca. 200 years have led to transformations much more significant than those resulting from climate change. They have endowed us with a 'no-analogue' biosphere as the canvas upon which future climate changes and human activities will interact. Moreover, this no-analogue biosphere is the point of departure for the future part of the global experiment to which increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will contribute. To consider this complex and rapidly changing canvas without regard to its antecedents is not a realistic enterprise. PAGES FOCUS 3 is therefore a research domain within which, as the messages from the past overlap the observations of the present, we may hope to develop and optimize the interactions between many aspects of IGBP's endeavors. Human activities are as much drivers of contemporary and future environmental change as are anticipated changes in climate. The interplay between the two types of forcing is of vital concern and the history of their interaction is ignored at our peril, especially in the realm of future impacts and their integrated assessment. In this respect, the proposed FOCUS 3 initiatives are a response to human needs as well as to the emerging research agendas of national and international funding agencies. A CALL FOR PARTICIPATION The various themes outlined above are closely interwoven and will require a coordinated network approach for their realization. We can illustrate this simply by identifying the key archives for many of the themes, namely lacustrine and high resolution, near-shore marine sediment records of changing land cover, associated biogeochemical fluxes and their impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem structure and function. There are other vital linking concerns. The concept of sustainability has no realistic meaning unless it accommodates what we know of past climate variability, human activities and the consequences of their interaction. Equally, development of the themes proposed is a prerequisite for model evaluation, which, in turn serves to improve predictive capability. The first task is to identify a cohort of potential participants ready to share the challenges implicit in this proposal. An immense volume of highly relevant data already exists. One of our main roles must be to evaluate, filter, coordinate and systematize what is already known, as it bears on the key issues already partly identified in the outlines above. This 'prospectus' therefore comes with a request that all interested scientists contact us in the PAGES Office in Bern with an outline of their own perspectives and of the potential roles they may be prepared to play. In some cases, as for example in the case of aquatic ecosystems and of human impact on fluvial systems, the leaders (Rick Battarbee and Bob Wasson respectively) have been identified and work is already in progress. In other cases, there is a need to identify those who will be prepared to play a crucial, active role in coordination and leadership. Again, we are putting this proposal forward in an effort to solicit both potential volunteers and nominees. By joining in such an effort, our hope is that you will not only contribute to making the best possible use of current knowledge and ongoing research; you will also be helping to define key aspects of the global change research agenda for the future. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\focus31.doc" ____________________________________________ Frank Oldfield Executive Director PAGES IPO Barenplatz 2 CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland e-mail: frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch Phone: +41 31 312 3133; Fax: +41 31 312 3168 http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html 1836. 1998-06-23 22:49:49 ______________________________________________________ cc: D Parker D Parker , John Mitchell John Mitchell , k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Tue, 23 Jun 1998 22:49:49 +0100 from: sfbtett@meto.gov.uk subject: Re: Draft Report on Detection Workshop (March 1998, Bracknell) to: Phil Jones Phil Jones Hi Phil, thanks for your comments -- almost missed including them (my fault) but here they are. Thanks for taking the time to read and comment on the report. Below is my response to your and Keith's comments. Phil Jones wrote: > > Simon, > Here are some comments from Keith and me. > > Background 1.1 > Should the 3rd paragraph include that the program also needs > longer climatic datasets to estimate longer timescale variability ? Yes -- added a sentence saying "Homogeneous observations of climate greater than 50 years would allow better comparison of model simulated variability with observed variability." -- sound OK? > Page 6 #4 > > Rewritten as : > > The reasons for the poor comparison between many proxy data > sources and temperature measurements should be explored with a > view to improving the proxy data. The development and expansion > of existing datasets of tree-ring density and tree-ring width > should be continued and these data made easily available to > the scientific community in order to allow validation of model > variability. OK -- included the 2nd sentence (1st sentence is what we have already) I note the addition of the word "expansion" -- John you happy with this? > Summaries of talks > > Mine : David sent some - here are some more > > Since 1900 the land surface temperature network shows large > changes in coverage. A network of about 1000 stations whose > records are homogeneous is sufficient to monitor regional-to- > global scale temperatures. The network needs to be maintained > and should be improved. Both these should be achieved as a > result of the initiative of GCOS (the GCOS surface network). > The 'Urbanization' contribution to warming over the twentieth > century is 0.05K, which is an order of magnitude smaller than > the observed warming. Sea surface temperature (SST) data is easier > to correct for changes in the observing system than the land > surface data as it can be calibrated against the night marine air > temperature and coastal land surface temperature measurements. > The five warmest years have all occurred during the 1990s. The > standard error of estimate of annual-mean global-mean temperature > is approximately 0.05K. Over the last 50 years diurnal temperature > range has decreased. A detection study using this variable may be > worth undertaking. OK -- made those changes > David has sent me some improvements to his piece on U/A datasets > which I agree with. > > Keith's talk > > Tree-ring width and tree-ring density measurements are a good > proxy for surface temperatures on timescales of 1 to 100 years. > On timescales beyond 100 years the results are often affected by > the removal of biological factors related to tree aging. Research is > currently being undertaken to extend the climate information > recoverable on longer timescales. Dating is very good for these > data sources. However, post-1950 they may contain significant > anthropogenic effects, which need to be removed. Other proxy data > sources such as corals and ice cores have great potential for > representing tropical and polar/high elevation regions but are > presently less certain in terms of dating and further work in > formal calibration with climatic data is desirable. Um, I thought that a fair summary of Keith's talk was that the Proxy data was really bad -- I think that does need to be said. How about, for the last sentence: "Other proxy data sources such as corals and ice cores have great potential for representing tropical and polar/high elevation regions but are currently unreliable as measures of surface temperature. This may be because the dating of them is less certain than tree ring proxies, and further work in formal calibration of these proxies with climatic data is needed." Simon Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\vcard1.vcf" 4264. 1998-06-24 09:45:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 24 Jun 1998 09:45:57 +0100 from: "Measures, Jane" subject: FW: Briefing paper to: 'Mike Hulme' Mike Just between meetings and have picked up some quick feedback from Simon on our BP HSE team. Pleased to see how positive they are and what do you think of the suggestion? Regrds JAne Jane Measures BP Britannic House Tel. +44 171 496 4924 Fax. +44 171 496 4738 E mail MEASUREJ@BP.COM > ---------- > From: Worthington, Simon > Sent: 24 June 1998 09:08 > To: Measures, Jane > Cc: Thomas, Charles; Grezo, Charlotte AB > Subject: RE: Briefing paper > > Jane, > > This is really good - balanced clear and concise, covering a wide area > well. > > When completed I would like to get it in to a format to go out to our > climate change list as a briefing paper and to all HSE managers - > would this be OK with Mike of course we would quote him as the author. > > Simon > Simon Worthington > Environmental Policy Adviser > Group Health, Safety and Environment > The British Petroleum Company p.l.c. > Britannic House, 1 Finsbury Circus, London EC2M 7BA > Tel. +44 171 496 4951 Fax. +44 171 496 4379 > > ---------- > From: Measures, Jane > Sent: 24 June 1998 08:42 > To: isobel; Russell; Thomas, Charles; Waumsley, Lorraine; > Worthington, Simon > Subject: FW: Briefing paper > > > Jane Measures > BP > Britannic House > Tel. +44 171 496 4924 > Fax. +44 171 496 4738 > E mail MEASUREJ@BP.COM > > ---------- > From: Mike Hulme[SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: 23 June 1998 22:51 > To: Measures, Jane > Subject: Re: Briefing paper > > <> > Jane, > > Attached is a nearly complete briefing paper on the science of climate > change. Two topics remain to be completed. It is incredibly hard to > condense such a wide-ranging and complex topic into such a format. I > hope > this is what you had in mind. > > I will have a go later today at drafting one of these topics in terms > of > information sources. > > Your feedback would be welcome before I progress much further. > > Mike > > At 11:40 16/06/98 +0100, you wrote: > >Mike > > > >Can you give me a ring please as I'm getting no response from your > >telephone number. > > > >Many thanks > > > >Jane > >Jane Measures > >BP > >Britannic House > >Tel. +44 171 496 4924 > >Fax. +44 171 496 4738 > >E mail MEASUREJ@BP.COM > > > > > 3762. 1998-06-25 18:02:06 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 25 Jun 1998 18:02:06 +0100 from: Keith Alverson subject: PAGES input to Global Change in Mountain Regions to: keith.alverson@pages.unibe.ch, ammann@sgi.unibe.ch, rbattarb@geography.ucl.ac.uk, behling@bio.uva.nl, rbradley@geo.umass.edu, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, karlen@natgeo.su.se, lotter@sgi.unibe.ch, maggi@alpha.disat.unimi.it, markgraf@spot.colorado.edu, messerli@giub.unibe.ch, frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch, yugo@ees.hokudai.ac.jp, matti.saarnisto@gsf.fi, rthompson@usgs.gov, thompson.3@osu.edu, veit@giub.unibe.ch, c_wake@unh.edu Dear PAGES mountain scientists, Apologies for the format of the last message attachment. Here the attachemts are included in word 6.0 format as well as in ascii text embedded in this message. At the recent PAGES SSC meeting (June 19-21, Pallanza) the PAGES steering committee endorsed participation in an intercore project on global change in mountain regions. The other interested projects include GCTE, BAHC, LUCC, and IHDP. Enclosed are two word 98 documents. The executive summary of the implementation plan for this project and the pages contributions to the implementation plan as they currently stand. We are now at a stage where a wider involvement from PAGES scientists who are doing research in mountian regions is being suought in order to develop a more detailed implementation. I would greatly appreciate any comments on these documents, any new input either as text or figures which would highlight PAGES ongoing efforts in mountain regions, as well as offers from scientists who would like to take the lead in this initiative. Feel free to distribute these documents widely should you know of interested scientists who did not receive this mailing. Replies can be sent to me by either by email (alverson@pages.unibe.ch) or c/o the PAGES IPO in Bern. Keith ______________________________ Potential PAGES contributions to the IGBP/IHDP "Global Change in Mountain Regions" initiative Keith Alverson, Heinz Veit and Bruno Messerli BACKGROUND The "Global Change Research in Mountain Regions" program is currently developing an implementation plan as an IGBP inter-core project cooperation with input from BAHC, GCTE, LUCC and PAGES as well as the IHDP. A draft version of the executive summary of this implementation plan is included below. To date PAGES role in this project has been: 1. The written contribution from Bruno Messerli (PAGES IPO) contained in an appendix to IGBP report 43; 2. The input of Keith Alverson (PAGES IPO) and Heinz Veit (University of Bern) at the workshop in Pontresina Switzerland at which a draft version of the Mountain Initiative implementation plan was begun, and a draft version of this "PAGES contributions" document was written. MOTIVATION Mountain areas are valuable locations to carry out paleoclimatic research for exactly the same reasons that they are being considered as prime regions to investigate global change. … High sensitivity to climate change. … Steep relief leading to intense geomorphic and hydrological processes. … A wide variety of ecosystems within a small geographical area providing a model, with sharper gradients and smaller overall scales, which can provide insight into latitudinal and temporal ecosystem changes. OBJECTIVES 1. Make a fundamental contribution to the improvement of our understanding of physical and biological processes within ecosystems and to global change studies in mountain regions. 2. Define the envelope of natural variability within which the climate and ecosystem monitoring program can be assessed, thereby facilitating the extrapolation of observed time series of hydrological and ecological characteristics into the past, and the future. 3. Construct examples and scenarios of climate change impacts at the landscape level from the paleorecord, both with and without human impacts, which provide an excellent mechanism for validation of climate and ecosystem models. Past landscape development provides an understanding of modern and future conditions. Many modern plant communities, permafrost, glaciers and soils are strongly influenced by the environmental conditions from years, decades, centuries, even millennia in the past. This dependence on past conditions will continue to influence any potential future reorganizations due to global climate change. A hierarchy of timescales exist in both climatic forcing and ecosystem dynamics including extreme events, changes in seasonality, interannual modes of oscillation such as ENSO and the NAO, decadal, century and millennial scale variability. Behavior on all of these timescales require different methods and archives for their study. In order to address questions on this wide range of temporal and spatial scales, it is of utmost importance that a synergy is established between paleoclimate mountain research and modern ecosystem and land use based monitoring, modeling and synthesis studies. For example, complementary locations for global change monitoring stations with intensive paleoclimate study sites should be sought where possible. PRINCIPAL RESEARCH THEMES 1. Long-term observation systems to detect and analyze signals of global change, as the mountain-specific component of the Global Observing Systems (GTOS/GCOS/GHOST/FRIENDS) Monitoring of modern climate and ecosystem parameters provides an invaluable calibration of proxy records of past climatic and environmental change. Paleoclimatic records contained in ice cores, tree rings, lake sediments, terrestrial and aquatic biological assemblages all depend critically on transfer functions based on comparisons of the modern responses to instrumentally measured climatic parameters. The dependence of proxy records on specific climatic parameters can also change in time. Such changes provide both a challenge in interpreting paleorecords as well as valuable insights into changing ecosystem dynamics. Such nuances necessitate long term monitoring. Thus, both short and long term monitoring are fundamental to PAGES research. It is important to plan monitoring activities which, in addition to providing their own inherent value, can facilitate a smooth blending of the proxy based information with recent instrumental data, thereby maximizing the accuracy and length of the available aggregate climate record. Whenever possible monitoring programs should seek to complement and benefit from PAGES monitoring programs which already exist, for example on the Tibetan plateau as part of the HIPP program, and on high altitude tropical glaciers worldwide in support of ice coring work. In establishing a global monitoring program attention should be paid to ways in which the program can both serve the wider interdisciplinary climate research community as well as the ways in which it can benefit from extant monitoring programs such as those within the PAGES research umbrella. Selections of sites, for example, could take account of the locations of intense paleoclimatic research. In addition, isotope monitoring is an example of a key area of potentially fruitful interaction between studies of modern climate and ecosystem dynamics and paleoclimatic reconstructions. Key to developing methodologies for coordinated use of altitude related indicators of anthropogenic global change, and its impacts, is knowledge of the continuing natural background variability with which and anthropogenic changes will interact. Natural background loads in precipitation and atmospheric deposition are recorded, with annual resolution in ice cores from mountain glaciers. Varved sediments in proglacial lakes provide records of natural variability in climate and lake ecosystem dynamics with a similarly high resolution. In the past century, anthropogenic effects, mainly due to local pollution, are also reflected in these records. 2. Integrated modelling framework for analysis and vulnerability assessment Models need to be rigorously validated. Such validation can make use of data obtained from altitudinal gradient and catchment studies. Another method of validation, and improvement, of these models is to compare them with reconstructions of climatic and land use change driven hydrological and ecological changes of the past. As with any model data comparison, a crucial requirement for meaningful comparison is explicit estimates of uncertainties in the model fields as well as the reconstructions. For example, detailed reconstructions of past environmental response to climatic forcing in mountainous regions provide an excellent test for the applicability of plant functional types to a wide range of background climatic situations. In return, plant functional type definitions can provide an excellent method for streamlining the biospheric interactions components of paleoclimate models. These models are often run for much longer periods of time than modern climate simulations and, as such, require that computational efficiency be maximized at the expense of species level detail. 3. Environmental-change-related process studies in mountain environments, in particular along altitudinal gradients and in associated headwater basins. There are well established PAGES programs in reconstructing, for example, treeline, permafrost occurrence, species occurrence and Equilibrium Line Altitude. Similarly, high alpine lacustrine sediments, because of the relative lack of anthropogenic influences, comprise a core PAGES proxy record. In identifying environmental change processes along altitudinal gradients, attention should be paid to the added value provided by an accurate reconstruction of the long term past behavior of the system. Assessing the lag times associated with ecotone response to environmental change is an area of active research within PAGES. 4. Development of scaling and regionalization methods for mountain regions. The connections between catchment scale dynamics and global climatic change is far from trivial. It is a connection that has been particularly intensely studied within the paleoclimate community because of the point source nature of paleoclimate proxy data. In addition, the paleoclimate record allows comparisons across a staggering temporal and spatial array of sites. For example paleoclimatic tree line reconstructions for the past 100,000 years from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego are being produced as part of the PAGES PEP I program. It is exactly such spatial and temporal syntheses which can begin to provide the full spectrum of information required to asses of scaling and regionalization methods in mountain regions. 5. Development of strategies to ensure sustainable development in mountain regions, and to avoid or mitigate damaging effects of disastrous events. Many mountains of the world have a long history of human influence. In the alps there is at least a 50,000 year history of human habitation with strong human impacts beginning to be seen in paleoclimate records around 5,000 years ago. In the Andes human habitation has been marked by dramatic oscillations, often in concert with climatic and ecosystem changes, and has a record reaching back some 10,000 years. There is a strong relationship between the natural environment in Holocene times and human activities. The interaction and feedbacks between human activities, land use, climatic and environmental change, and disastrous events is recorded in paleorecord. Reconstructing and understanding these interactions in the past can provide an important tool for understanding how to create strategies for human security in the face of climatic variability and environmental change in the future. __________________________________ "Global Change Research in Mountain Regions" Proposal for an IGBP/IHDP Implementation Plan Executive Summary Rationale Mountain regions occupy about one-fifth of the Earth's surface. They are home to approxi-mate-ly one-tenth of the global population and provide goods and services to about half of hu-manity. Accordingly, they received particular attention in "Agenda 21", endorsed at UNCED. Chapter 13 of this document focuses on mountain regions, and states: "Mountain environments are essential to the survival of the glob-al ecosystem. Many of them are experiencing degradation in terms of accelerated soil ero-sion, landslides, and rapid loss of habi-tat and genetic diversity. Hence, proper management of moun-tain resources and socio-economic development of the people deserves immediate action." Moreover, mountain regions often provide unique opportunities (sometimes the best on Earth) to detect and analyse global change processes and phenomena: 1) Due to the often strong altitudinal gradients in mountain regions, meteorological, hy-dro-logical (including cryospheric), and ecological conditions (in particular ve-ge-tation, soil, and related conditions) change strong-ly over relatively short distances. Consequently, bio-di-ver-sity tends to be high, and characteristic sequences of eco-systems and cryospheric systems are found along mountain slopes. The bound-aries be-tween these systems (e.g., ecotones, snowline, and glacier boundaries) experience shifts due to environmental change and thus can be used as indicators; some can even be observed at the global scale by remote sensing. 2) Many mountain ranges, particularly their higher parts, are not affected by direct human activities. These areas include many na-tional parks and other protected, "near-natural" environments. They may serve as locations where the environmental impacts of climate change alone, including changes in atmospheric chemistry, can be studied directly. 3) Mountain regions are distributed all over the globe, from the Equator almost to the poles and from oceanic to highly continental climates. This global distribution allows us to per-form comparative regional studies and to analyse the regional differentiation of environ-mental change processes as characterized above. Accordingly, mountain regions are of particular significance for global change research. A Joint IGBP/IHDP Initiative Recognising the significance of mountain regions for global change re-search, the IGBP core projects BAHC and GCTE, together with START/SASCOM, organised a workshop in Kath-man-du, Nepal (March/April 1996), which resulted in IGBP Report #43: "Predicting Global Change Impacts on Mountain Hydrology and Ecology". This report was complemented by documents from two follow-up meetings: a LUCC Work-shop on "Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover Change in the Hindukush-Hi-malayas" in Kath-man-du, Nepal (April 1997), and the "European Conference on Environ-men-tal and Societal Change in Mountain Regions" in Oxford, UK (December 1997). The reports from these meetings served as the basis for developing a draft implementation plan on "Global Change Research in Mountain Regions" at a joint IGBP/IHDP (BAHC, GCTE, LUCC, PAGES) workshop in Pontresina, Switzerland (16-18 April 1998). Fifteen experts at-tend-ed the workshop, sponsored mainly by the Swiss Academy of Natural Sciences (SANW). In the implementation plan, the need for interdisciplinary environmental change research in mountain regions involving both natural and social scien-tists is emphasized. Thus, in addition to the IGBP and IHDP core projects mentioned above, IDGC and GECHS (IHDP) as well as START and its regional programmes should join the group of collaborators. Objectives The IGBP/IHDP Initiative on Global Change Research in Mountain Regions is based on an "integrated approach" for observing (detect-ing, monitoring), modelling and investigating global change phenomena and processes in moun-tain regions, including their impacts on ecosystems and socio-economic systems. Both en-vironmental aspects - in particular land use/ land cover changes and climate change - and socio-economic aspects - in particular social, economic, and political driving forces and changes - as well as their complex interactions and interdependencies will be taken into account in their mountain-specific forms. The ultimate objectives of the approach are: o to develop a strategy for detecting signals of global environmental change on mountain en-vi-ron-ments; o to define the consequences of global environmental change for mountain regions as well as low-land systems dependent on mountain resources; and o to develop sustainable land, water, and resource management strategies for mountain re-gions at local to regional scales. It is understood that, at least in the coming decades, socio-economic changes are likely to be at least as important as en-vi-ron-men-tal changes in mountain regions. The environmental changes may significantly threat-en sustainable development in these regions, and both environmental and socio-eco-nomic changes may reduce the ability of these regions to pro-vide critical goods and services to society in the mountains as well as downstream and else-where; for instance, in terms of wa-ter and energy supply, biodiversity, attraction to tourists, and measures to avoid or mitigate damaging effects of disastrous events (floods, debris flows). Research Activities The implementation plan for global change research in mountain regions is structured around the following five overarching themes: 1) Long-term observation systems to detect and analyse signals of global change, as the moun-tain-specific component of the Global Observing Systems (in particular GTOS/ GCOS/GHOST/FRIENDS) 2) Integrated modelling framework for analysis, vulnerability assessment and predictive studies, including the development of scaling and regionalisation methods for mountain regions 3) Environmental-change-related mountain specific process studies, in particular along altitudinal gradients and in associated headwater basins 4) Development of strategies to ensure sustainable development in mountain regions, and to avoid or mitigate damaging effects of disastrous events. Below, more details are given on these topics and their implemen-ta-tion. Activity 1: Long-term observation systems to detect signals of global change Due to their continuous exposure to extreme environmental conditions, mountain ecosystems have developed well-adapted but often sensitive forms of life which respond in characteristic ways to continuous and/or abrupt environmental changes. Accordingly, the record of events that have influ-enced the dynamics of mountain systems is archived in glacier deposits, lake sediments, wetlands, tree rings, vegetation patterns and structure, and also in glacial ice. Actually, the cryosphere, due to its sensitivity to environ-mental changes, represents a valuable, widely observed indicator of global change. Moreover, mountain ecosystems are not only useful to follow past and present environmental changes, but can also serve as reference sites for comparison with changes in lowland eco-systems which are under more complex pressures. Activity 1 will therefore consider indicators that define signals of change in atmospheric inputs and the associated responses of mountain systems. It will be accomplished through the coordi-na-tion of ongoing research (supported by various national funding agencies and, e.g., the Euro-pean Commission) and, where required, the initiation of new projects in mountain regions around the world. Wherever possible, long-term observation of these indicators will build on ex-isting struc-tures and networks (e.g., high mountain field stations, biosphere reserves, gauged water-sheds), equating to level 3 of the Global Hierarchical Observation system GHOST. Prox-imity to sites within the network of the World Glacier Monitoring Service will also be envisaged. Sets of indicators are proposed both for the study of direct cause-effect relationships in individ-ual systems, and also to follow changes that derive from the complex interactions of different drivers of global change. The indicators fall into the following three groups: o snow and ice (cryosphere): seasonal snow, snow chemistry, permafrost, and glaciers; o water balance components (precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration) and lake dynamics; o vegetation, fauna, and soils: short-, medium-, and long-term changes, typically based on a permanent plot approach. These indicators have been chosen based on the current understanding of the processes deter-min-ing the dynamics of mountain systems. However, our understanding of these processes is in-complete, and more detailed studies are desirable to refine the definition of suitable indicator variables. Ecological and hydrological experiments can be very valuable in this respect (see Activity 3 below). Tasks under this activity will concern studies of the cryosphere, plant communities and soils, Alpine aquatic ecosystems and water balance components as well as interrelations between the different characteristics. Activity 2: Integrated modelling framework for analysis and predictive studies Modelling is an important tool for synthesizing and analysing field data, for making sensitivity analyses, including vulnerability assessments, and ultimately for studying in a predictive mode the effects of global change on mountain regions. Cor-re-sponding to the integrated approach outlined above, it is necessary to develop and provide for wider application a frame-work allowing the analysis and predictive studies of hydrological and ecologi-cal characteristics and their linkages in mountain regions under changing climatic and land co-ver/use conditions. As a specific step towards this end, models of terrestrial ecosystems and coupled hydrological systems dynamics will be tested and applied along altitudinal gradients and in associated headwater basins in different mountain regions, based on either existing or new transects. These transects should meet the following requirements: o extending across several vegetation zones; o including both continuous changes and thresholds of ecosystem properties; o designed similarly across different mountain regions; o including a large number of sampling sites. These activities are focused towards the development and application of predictive regional mod-els of mountain landscapes that incorporate the dynamics of ecosystem structure, bio-geo-chemistry, hydrology, and land cover/use. This will involve the resolution of a number of chal-lenges, including linking models of ecosystem structure with biogeochemistry and hydro-logy; handling the interactions between different plant life forms; and explicit modelling of the changes of land cover/use and their interactions with regional-scale ecosystem dynamics. Ecosystem models will be selected or developed for the appropriate scales and major questions of interest. They will utilise data from study sites with the most complete and long-term data sets. As quantitatively-structured expressions of existing knowledge, models must be evaluated rigorously, and evolve to answer new questions or address the changing needs of resource managers. They must effectively consider scaling issues in both temporal and spatial do-mains, recognising that: o extrapolation across scales is rarely linear in ecosystems; o establishing background levels of variability requires a consideration of several scales; o the dynamics of emergent properties are scale-sensitive. Consequently, research programmes need to have a standardised design that can be adapted to spe-cific ecosystems while retaining enough common elements to permit cross-site comparisons at dif-ferent scales of interest. Within such core data sets, several types of scaling will be con-sid-ered: o spatial: plots to mountain ranges, with an emphasis on nested watersheds; o temporal: hourly fluxes to century-long trends, depending on the hydrological or ecological process under consideration; o ecological: individuals to trophic levels. Two tasks were identified to be specifically addressed: "Integrated regional modelling" and "scaling and regionalisation" Activity 3: Mountain specific process studies along altitudinal gradients and in associated headwater basins Ecological and hydrological experiments, par-ticu-larly manipulative ones, along altitudinal gra-di-ents and in high-elevation catchments will pro-vide valuable data on the potential responses of moun-tain ecosystems to human-induced global change, as well as increasing understanding of the biotic feedbacks that accompany environ-mental change and influence ecosystem function and hydrological processes. Thus, this re-search will provide information for developing and testing process-based models of mountain ecosystems; it will help to refine the se-lec-tion of indi-ca-tors men-tioned above, and to de-fine additional sensitive indicators of global change. Recognising that the agents of global change vary regionally, these studies should stress the most important environmental forcing factors for different regions, and be used to determine the sen-si-tivity of ecological and hydrological systems to these factors. The spatial scale will vary from studies along extended altitudinal gradients and whole catchment analyses to the plot level, de-pending on the factor of concern, the goal of the study, and the available resources. Basic research themes to be addressed in these studies will include: o evaluation of the links between biological diversity and ecosystem function, especially along altitudinal gradients; o tracer studies of stream- and baseflow, to identify and trace sources and flowpaths of water; o topographically-based modelling of runoff, soil moisture, and vegetation dynamics. This work will be linked to research focusing on two forcing factors of global change: o climate change: meteorological monitoring and synthesis; climate manipulations of eco-sys-tems; altitudinal gradients as a proxy for climate change; stream chemistry as an indi-ca-tor of global change; o increases in nitrogen deposition: basic monitoring; fertilisation experiments; 15N pulse-chase experiments; d18O tracer experiments; snowmelt recharge of NO3- water. Tasks under this activity will focus on experiments, including manipulative ones, and on related small scale modelling studies of hydrological and ecological processes, and their interaction, being subject to environmental change, as well as on land cover/use development ensuring sustainable development and avoiding or mitigating disastrous effects of natural hazards. Activity 4: Strategies to ensure sustainable development An ultimate overall objective of this initiative is to develop sustainable land, water, and resource management strategies for mountain regions. Activities pursuant to this objective will take place in mountain regions where global-scale driving forces are having the greatest impacts, in order to develop regional-scale strategies for mitigation and adaptation. A primary task will be to identify potentially unsustainable trajectories in land and/or water resources that are partially driven by global change and portend threats to the ability of specific regions to support current and future livelihoods. Three priorities are suggested for assessment: o changes in forest area and/or composition and structure, with implications for agricul-ture, rates of erosion and magnitude of floods, and biodiversity; o intensification and/or extensification of agriculture (including grazing), with implications for food security, rates of erosion and magnitude of floods, and biodiversity; o change in water regimes due to factors such as changing agricultural practices, increas-ing temporary or permanent population, and/or increasing energy generation, with implications for downstream water supply, energy availability, flooding, and sediment transfer. Work on these linked themes must involve local people in defining and implementing research, recognising the complementarity between local knowledge and scientific investigation: o evaluating optimal combinations of traditional and innovative resource management systems, in order to ensure the stability and resilience of both natural and human-managed ecosystems and the conservation of biodiversity; o assessing appropriate institutional arrangements, based on understanding of traditional arrangements, the processes which contribute to changing them, and the alliances and interactions between mountain communities and interest groups at different levels; o evaluating economic instruments to achieve a new balance between production and the provision of societal benefits in relation to driving forces of global change, including climate change (especially changing frequencies of extreme events), migration, and the evolution of communication networks. Draft Implementation Plan Based on the above a draft implementation plan is under preparation which will be distributed to the international science community for consideration, comments and suggestions. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\exec_sum.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\pag_contr.doc" ______________________________________________________________________________ Keith Alverson, Science Officer e-mail: alverson@pages.unibe.ch PAGES International Project Office Phone: +41 31 312 3133 Bärenplatz 2, CH-3011 Fax: +41 31 312 3168 Bern, Switzerland Internet: http://www.pages.unibe.ch/ ______________________________________________________________________________ 4840. 1998-07-03 09:48+0 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 03 Jul 1998 09:48 +0000 (GMT) from: gjjenkins@meto.gov.uk subject: IS92d glacier contribution to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Date: Thu, 02 Jul 1998 17:00 +0000 (GMT) From: jalowe@meadow.meto.gov.uk Subject: IS92d glacier contribution To: gjjenkins@meadow.meto.gov.uk MIME-version: 1.0 Content-type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset="usascii" Mike: SLR data for UKCIP Geoff ______________________________ Forward Header __________________________________ Subject: IS92d glacier contribution Author: jalowe at internet Date: 02/07/98 17:00 Dear Geoff, Jonathan has now completed melt calculations for the IS92d GHG ensemble using HadCM2 temperatures. Year Glaciers Greenland Antarctica 2000 0.0072456 0.0035838 -0.0036792 2010 0.0155970 0.0080937 -0.0072453 2020 0.0257004 0.0132285 -0.0117743 2030 0.0370795 0.0192018 -0.0168048 2040 0.0492602 0.0257994 -0.0228578 2050 0.0627830 0.0326636 -0.0289260 2060 0.0779482 0.0404479 -0.0360934 2070 0.0930458 0.0484434 -0.0439739 2080 0.108728 0.0564294 -0.0525227 2090 0.125772 0.0645219 -0.0614751 2100 0.144236 0.0740966 -0.0716289 Note:- Glacier and Greenland contributions are LESS than predicted by Magicc. The fixed upwelling version produced the expansion estimate that was closest to the HadCM2 expansion value. However, the variable upwelling estimate of glacier and Greenland melt was closest to the HadCM2 glacier and Greenland value. Jason -- Dr Jason A Lowe Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research UK Met. Office Tel: +44(0)1344 856883 Fax: +44(0)1344 854898 E-mail: jalowe@meto.gov.uk 1933. 1998-07-07 15:12:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 07 Jul 1998 15:12:33 -0500 from: Joel Smith subject: Re: Boer Citation -Forwarded -Reply to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, Yeah, I need to go to their web site. I'll pick something and let you know. I fortunately or unfortunately landed a major assignment. I am tentatively tagged to be convening or coordinating lead author on the synthesis chapter for WorK Group II. This will review what we know about how different stabilization levels would reduce impacts. This is one of the key impacts questions (getting right at Article 2 in the UNFCCC) so it could be quite exciting. The problem is I am not sure I can rustle up enough support to allow me to put in the time necessary for this. Joel 4856. 1998-07-08 12:45:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: Myles Allen , Tim Barnett , Keith Briffa , John Christy , Ulrich Cubasch , Arthur Dempster , Jean-Claude Duplessy , Chris Folland , Jo Haigh , Klaus Hasselmann , Gabriele Hegerl , Phil Jones , Gerbrand Komen , Richard Lindzen , J Mitchell , Gerald North , Tim Palmer , "V. Ramaswamy" , Ben Santer , David Sexton , Keith Shine , Peter Stott , Tom Wigley date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998 12:45:32 +0900 ("EDT) from: David Karoly subject: IPCC Detection/Attribution workshop to: Simon Tett Hi, This message is being sent to some of the participants at the EuroCLIVAR workshop held at the Hadley Centre in March. I have just returned to Australia from the IPCC Scoping meeting for the Third Assessment Report, held in Germany last week. As you may have heard in Bracknell or from other sources, John Mitchell and I have been asked to be the coordinating lead authors for the chapter on detection and attribution, and the other lead authors identified so far are Francis Zwiers and Vincente Barros(from Argentina). We were all at the meeting in Germany. Enough background, now to the reason for contacting you. We would like to hold a workshop for likely contributors to the chapter immediately after another conference that is likely to attract a number of the relevant people. We agreed that immediately after the AMS Annual Mtg in January in Texas would be best as we need to have a first complete draft of the chapter completed by the middle of 99. We plan to have the workshop over two days, the Friday and Saturday, immediately after the AMS mtg. A venue for the workshop has not been finalised. We would like to hold it at a University in Texas, but our fall-back would be a room in the same hotel as the AMS meeting. These arrangements will be finalised soon. The bulk of the time in the two day workshop will be spent on presentations by people on their latest work and their plans for the future, if they are relevant to IPCC 2000. We will circulate a chapter outline soon, and have discussion on that for half a day at the workshop, but plenty of time for presentations from the participants. I expect that there would be many of the same people from the EuroCLIVAR workshop, plus some extras, and that we would be aiming at about 20-30 participants, who would be the likely contributors to the chapter. We will be encouraging as many people as possible to give talks at the AMS session, but they will be limited to 15 minutes. There will be much more time for discussion at the workshop. The relevant session at the AMS meeting is the 10th Symposium on Global Change Studies, being organised by Tom Karl. Abstracts for papers were due by 1 July but Tom has allowed late abstracts till about 15 July (he's away on vacation). There are a number of relevant sessions, including 2) solar-climate interactions, 3) model simulations of past, present and future climate, including results from CMIP, 7) climate change detection and attribution, 13) a special session on IPCC 2000. This session is scheduled to run all week but I think I can persuade Tom to make sure that our relevant sessions are not held on Friday. Further information is available at the AMS WWW site http://www.confex2.com/ams/99annual/authors/Change.htm Please note that abstracts should be sent via email to Tom Karl at tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov and not via the AMS electronic submission system, as this may not allow late abstracts or not send them straight to Tom. If you are interested in being involved in this workshop and/or a contributor to the Detection/Attribution chapter of IPCC 2000, (i) please let me know via email, and (ii) consider submitting an abstract to the AMS mtg, to the Global Change symp, noting that late abstracts will only be accepted until about 15 July Best wishes, David ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Prof David Karoly CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology Monash University phone: +61-3-9905 9669 Clayton VIC 3168 fax: +61-3-9905 9689 AUSTRALIA email: djk@vortex.shm.monash.edu.au ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 4052. 1998-07-10 10:51:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 10 Jul 1998 10:51:26 -0500 from: Joel Smith subject: CR special -Reply to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, Let me apologize for not keeping you posted on this. Nobuo Mimura is the lead editor on the special edition. We (Hagler Bailly) are unable to provide technical assistance to Nobuo because of insufficient availability of funds. EMR, which provides on-site consulting services to the US Country Studies Program, has agreed to provide technical support for the agreement. I had heard that Climate Research was one of the journals being considered for the special edition. I regret that I forgot to ask Nobuo last week whether a journal had been selected. Joel >>> Mike Hulme 07/10/98 05:35am >>> Dear Joel, I have heard that Bill Maly from EMR has approached Climate Research with a proposal for a Special Issue re. the Costa Rica meeting. Is this related to your original proposal? Did you take your idea elsewhere? Do you know Bill Maly? And who is he? Thanks, Mike 1250. 1998-07-10 15:44:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 10 Jul 1998 15:44:33 +0100 (BST) from: Jonathan Gregory subject: results to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Sea-level rise/m from run CBQMJ Year Expansion Glaciers Greenland Antarctica Total 1861 0.001 1862 -0.001 1863 -0.001 1864 0.002 1865 0.003 1866 0.002 1867 0.002 1868 0.000 1869 -0.001 1870 -0.001 1871 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.003 1872 -0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.001 1873 -0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.002 1874 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.003 1875 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 1876 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.003 1877 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 1878 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.005 1879 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 1880 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.004 1881 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.003 1882 0.000 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.002 1883 0.001 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.004 1884 0.002 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.005 1885 0.004 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.006 1886 0.005 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.007 1887 0.006 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.008 1888 0.006 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.008 1889 0.006 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.008 1890 0.006 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.008 1891 0.004 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.005 1892 0.004 0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.005 1893 0.007 0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.008 1894 0.007 0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.009 1895 0.008 0.003 0.001 -0.002 0.010 1896 0.010 0.003 0.001 -0.002 0.012 1897 0.012 0.003 0.001 -0.002 0.014 1898 0.010 0.003 0.002 -0.002 0.012 1899 0.010 0.003 0.002 -0.002 0.012 1900 0.011 0.003 0.002 -0.002 0.013 1901 0.011 0.003 0.002 -0.002 0.014 1902 0.011 0.004 0.002 -0.002 0.014 1903 0.012 0.004 0.002 -0.002 0.015 1904 0.012 0.004 0.002 -0.002 0.015 1905 0.011 0.004 0.002 -0.003 0.014 1906 0.012 0.004 0.002 -0.003 0.016 1907 0.012 0.004 0.002 -0.003 0.016 1908 0.012 0.005 0.002 -0.003 0.016 1909 0.014 0.005 0.002 -0.003 0.018 1910 0.015 0.005 0.002 -0.003 0.019 1911 0.014 0.005 0.002 -0.003 0.018 1912 0.014 0.005 0.002 -0.003 0.018 1913 0.015 0.005 0.002 -0.003 0.019 1914 0.014 0.006 0.002 -0.003 0.018 1915 0.012 0.006 0.002 -0.003 0.017 1916 0.011 0.006 0.002 -0.003 0.016 1917 0.012 0.006 0.002 -0.003 0.017 1918 0.015 0.006 0.002 -0.003 0.020 1919 0.017 0.006 0.002 -0.003 0.022 1920 0.018 0.007 0.002 -0.003 0.023 1921 0.019 0.007 0.002 -0.003 0.025 1922 0.017 0.007 0.003 -0.004 0.023 1923 0.016 0.007 0.003 -0.004 0.022 1924 0.017 0.007 0.003 -0.004 0.024 1925 0.019 0.007 0.003 -0.004 0.025 1926 0.020 0.008 0.003 -0.004 0.027 1927 0.019 0.008 0.003 -0.004 0.027 1928 0.019 0.008 0.004 -0.004 0.027 1929 0.019 0.008 0.004 -0.004 0.027 1930 0.018 0.008 0.004 -0.004 0.026 1931 0.018 0.009 0.004 -0.004 0.027 1932 0.019 0.009 0.004 -0.004 0.028 1933 0.018 0.009 0.004 -0.004 0.027 1934 0.018 0.009 0.005 -0.004 0.028 1935 0.020 0.009 0.005 -0.004 0.029 1936 0.021 0.010 0.005 -0.004 0.031 1937 0.021 0.010 0.005 -0.004 0.032 1938 0.022 0.010 0.005 -0.004 0.033 1939 0.023 0.010 0.005 -0.004 0.034 1940 0.023 0.010 0.005 -0.005 0.035 1941 0.022 0.010 0.006 -0.005 0.034 1942 0.022 0.011 0.006 -0.005 0.034 1943 0.023 0.011 0.006 -0.005 0.035 1944 0.023 0.011 0.006 -0.005 0.035 1945 0.025 0.011 0.006 -0.005 0.037 1946 0.026 0.011 0.006 -0.005 0.038 1947 0.027 0.011 0.006 -0.005 0.040 1948 0.028 0.012 0.006 -0.005 0.042 1949 0.030 0.012 0.006 -0.005 0.043 1950 0.032 0.012 0.007 -0.005 0.045 1951 0.032 0.012 0.007 -0.005 0.046 1952 0.032 0.012 0.007 -0.005 0.046 1953 0.031 0.012 0.007 -0.005 0.046 1954 0.032 0.013 0.007 -0.005 0.046 1955 0.033 0.013 0.007 -0.006 0.048 1956 0.034 0.013 0.008 -0.006 0.049 1957 0.036 0.013 0.008 -0.006 0.051 1958 0.036 0.013 0.008 -0.006 0.051 1959 0.037 0.013 0.008 -0.006 0.052 1960 0.037 0.013 0.008 -0.006 0.053 1961 0.037 0.014 0.009 -0.006 0.053 1962 0.039 0.014 0.009 -0.006 0.055 1963 0.040 0.015 0.009 -0.007 0.057 1964 0.042 0.015 0.009 -0.007 0.059 1965 0.041 0.015 0.009 -0.007 0.059 1966 0.040 0.016 0.010 -0.007 0.059 1967 0.042 0.016 0.010 -0.007 0.061 1968 0.042 0.017 0.010 -0.007 0.062 1969 0.042 0.017 0.010 -0.007 0.062 1970 0.042 0.017 0.011 -0.007 0.063 1971 0.043 0.018 0.011 -0.008 0.065 1972 0.045 0.018 0.011 -0.008 0.067 1973 0.045 0.019 0.011 -0.008 0.068 1974 0.048 0.019 0.012 -0.008 0.071 1975 0.050 0.020 0.012 -0.008 0.073 1976 0.052 0.020 0.012 -0.009 0.076 1977 0.052 0.021 0.013 -0.009 0.077 1978 0.052 0.021 0.013 -0.009 0.077 1979 0.053 0.022 0.013 -0.009 0.078 1980 0.053 0.022 0.014 -0.009 0.079 1981 0.054 0.023 0.014 -0.010 0.081 1982 0.054 0.023 0.014 -0.010 0.081 1983 0.056 0.024 0.014 -0.010 0.084 1984 0.059 0.024 0.014 -0.011 0.087 1985 0.062 0.025 0.015 -0.011 0.090 1986 0.062 0.025 0.015 -0.011 0.091 1987 0.063 0.026 0.015 -0.011 0.093 1988 0.063 0.026 0.015 -0.012 0.093 1989 0.063 0.027 0.015 -0.012 0.093 1990 0.065 0.027 0.016 -0.012 0.096 1991 0.068 0.028 0.016 -0.013 0.099 1992 0.068 0.029 0.016 -0.013 0.100 1993 0.069 0.029 0.017 -0.013 0.102 1994 0.072 0.030 0.017 -0.014 0.105 1995 0.074 0.030 0.018 -0.014 0.108 1996 0.075 0.031 0.018 -0.014 0.109 1997 0.076 0.031 0.018 -0.015 0.111 1998 0.079 0.032 0.019 -0.015 0.114 1999 0.079 0.032 0.019 -0.015 0.115 2000 0.081 0.033 0.020 -0.016 0.118 2001 0.083 0.034 0.020 -0.016 0.120 2002 0.084 0.034 0.020 -0.016 0.122 2003 0.087 0.035 0.021 -0.017 0.126 2004 0.089 0.036 0.021 -0.017 0.129 2005 0.090 0.037 0.021 -0.017 0.131 2006 0.092 0.038 0.022 -0.018 0.134 2007 0.096 0.039 0.022 -0.018 0.138 2008 0.098 0.039 0.022 -0.018 0.142 2009 0.099 0.040 0.023 -0.019 0.143 2010 0.099 0.041 0.023 -0.019 0.144 2011 0.101 0.042 0.024 -0.020 0.147 2012 0.104 0.043 0.024 -0.020 0.152 2013 0.106 0.044 0.025 -0.021 0.154 2014 0.106 0.045 0.025 -0.021 0.156 2015 0.108 0.047 0.026 -0.022 0.159 2016 0.110 0.048 0.027 -0.022 0.162 2017 0.113 0.049 0.027 -0.023 0.166 2018 0.117 0.050 0.028 -0.023 0.171 2019 0.119 0.051 0.028 -0.024 0.175 2020 0.121 0.052 0.029 -0.025 0.177 2021 0.122 0.053 0.030 -0.025 0.179 2022 0.122 0.055 0.030 -0.026 0.181 2023 0.126 0.056 0.031 -0.026 0.186 2024 0.129 0.057 0.031 -0.027 0.191 2025 0.130 0.059 0.032 -0.027 0.193 2026 0.133 0.060 0.033 -0.028 0.197 2027 0.134 0.061 0.033 -0.029 0.200 2028 0.138 0.063 0.034 -0.029 0.205 2029 0.142 0.064 0.034 -0.030 0.210 2030 0.144 0.065 0.035 -0.030 0.214 2031 0.146 0.067 0.036 -0.031 0.218 2032 0.147 0.068 0.037 -0.032 0.220 2033 0.149 0.070 0.037 -0.033 0.223 2034 0.153 0.071 0.038 -0.033 0.229 2035 0.157 0.073 0.039 -0.034 0.235 2036 0.160 0.074 0.039 -0.035 0.239 2037 0.164 0.076 0.040 -0.035 0.244 2038 0.165 0.077 0.041 -0.036 0.247 2039 0.166 0.079 0.042 -0.037 0.250 2040 0.169 0.080 0.042 -0.037 0.254 2041 0.172 0.082 0.043 -0.038 0.258 2042 0.173 0.083 0.044 -0.039 0.261 2043 0.176 0.085 0.045 -0.040 0.266 2044 0.177 0.086 0.045 -0.041 0.268 2045 0.180 0.088 0.046 -0.042 0.272 2046 0.181 0.089 0.047 -0.042 0.275 2047 0.184 0.091 0.048 -0.043 0.280 2048 0.187 0.093 0.049 -0.044 0.284 2049 0.192 0.094 0.049 -0.045 0.290 2050 0.195 0.096 0.050 -0.046 0.295 2051 0.198 0.097 0.051 -0.047 0.299 2052 0.199 0.099 0.052 -0.048 0.302 2053 0.201 0.101 0.053 -0.049 0.306 2054 0.204 0.103 0.054 -0.050 0.310 2055 0.208 0.104 0.055 -0.051 0.316 2056 0.213 0.106 0.055 -0.052 0.323 2057 0.218 0.108 0.056 -0.053 0.329 2058 0.221 0.110 0.057 -0.054 0.334 2059 0.224 0.111 0.058 -0.055 0.339 2060 0.227 0.113 0.059 -0.056 0.344 2061 0.228 0.115 0.060 -0.057 0.347 2062 0.232 0.117 0.061 -0.058 0.352 2063 0.236 0.119 0.062 -0.059 0.358 2064 0.239 0.121 0.063 -0.060 0.363 2065 0.243 0.123 0.064 -0.061 0.369 2066 0.246 0.125 0.065 -0.062 0.374 2067 0.250 0.127 0.065 -0.063 0.379 2068 0.253 0.129 0.066 -0.064 0.384 2069 0.256 0.131 0.067 -0.065 0.390 2070 0.260 0.133 0.068 -0.066 0.396 2071 0.264 0.135 0.069 -0.067 0.402 2072 0.267 0.137 0.070 -0.068 0.406 2073 0.269 0.139 0.071 -0.069 0.410 2074 0.272 0.141 0.072 -0.070 0.416 2075 0.276 0.143 0.073 -0.072 0.421 2076 0.280 0.146 0.074 -0.073 0.427 2077 0.283 0.148 0.075 -0.074 0.432 2078 0.287 0.150 0.077 -0.075 0.439 2079 0.292 0.152 0.078 -0.076 0.445 2080 0.295 0.154 0.079 -0.078 0.450 2081 0.299 0.156 0.080 -0.079 0.456 2082 0.302 0.159 0.081 -0.080 0.461 2083 0.307 0.161 0.082 -0.082 0.468 2084 0.312 0.164 0.083 -0.083 0.475 2085 0.316 0.166 0.084 -0.085 0.481 2086 0.320 0.169 0.085 -0.086 0.487 2087 0.324 0.171 0.086 -0.088 0.494 2088 0.329 0.173 0.087 -0.089 0.501 2089 0.333 0.176 0.089 -0.091 0.507 2090 0.335 0.178 0.090 -0.092 0.511 2091 0.340 0.181 0.091 -0.094 0.518 2092 0.345 0.183 0.092 -0.095 0.525 2093 0.348 0.186 0.094 -0.097 0.531 2094 0.352 0.189 0.095 -0.098 0.537 2095 0.356 0.191 0.096 -0.100 0.544 2096 0.360 0.194 0.098 -0.101 0.551 2097 0.364 0.197 0.099 -0.103 0.557 2098 0.368 0.199 0.100 -0.104 0.563 2099 0.370 0.202 0.102 -0.106 0.568 2100 0.374 0.205 0.103 -0.107 0.574 Sea-level rise/m from run CBQMT Year Expansion Glaciers Greenland Antarctica Total 1861 0.020 1862 0.022 1863 0.023 1864 0.024 1865 0.025 1866 0.025 1867 0.025 1868 0.025 1869 0.026 1870 0.026 1871 0.025 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.023 1872 0.025 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.024 1873 0.025 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.023 1874 0.026 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.025 1875 0.026 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.025 1877 0.027 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.025 1878 0.028 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.026 1879 0.027 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.026 1880 0.027 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.025 1881 0.028 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.026 1882 0.029 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.028 1883 0.029 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.028 1884 0.030 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.029 1885 0.030 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.029 1886 0.030 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.029 1887 0.029 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.029 1888 0.031 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.030 1889 0.031 0.001 0.000 -0.002 0.030 1890 0.031 0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.031 1891 0.031 0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.031 1892 0.032 0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.032 1893 0.032 0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.032 1894 0.031 0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.031 1895 0.032 0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.032 1896 0.031 0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.032 1897 0.029 0.002 0.001 -0.002 0.030 1898 0.030 0.003 0.001 -0.003 0.031 1899 0.031 0.003 0.001 -0.003 0.032 1900 0.032 0.003 0.001 -0.003 0.033 1901 0.032 0.003 0.001 -0.003 0.033 1902 0.032 0.003 0.001 -0.003 0.034 1903 0.032 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.034 1904 0.033 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.035 1905 0.032 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.034 1906 0.032 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.034 1907 0.032 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.034 1908 0.034 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.037 1909 0.035 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.038 1910 0.036 0.003 0.002 -0.003 0.038 1911 0.035 0.004 0.002 -0.003 0.038 1912 0.036 0.004 0.002 -0.003 0.039 1913 0.039 0.004 0.002 -0.003 0.042 1914 0.040 0.004 0.002 -0.003 0.043 1915 0.040 0.004 0.003 -0.003 0.043 1916 0.040 0.004 0.003 -0.003 0.042 1920 0.036 0.004 0.003 -0.004 0.039 1930 0.042 0.007 0.005 -0.005 0.049 1940 0.048 0.008 0.006 -0.006 0.056 1950 0.051 0.011 0.007 -0.007 0.062 1960 0.058 0.014 0.007 -0.008 0.071 1963 0.058 0.016 0.007 -0.009 0.073 1964 0.060 0.016 0.008 -0.009 0.075 1965 0.061 0.017 0.008 -0.009 0.076 1966 0.062 0.017 0.008 -0.009 0.077 1967 0.062 0.018 0.008 -0.010 0.079 1968 0.064 0.018 0.009 -0.010 0.081 1969 0.064 0.019 0.009 -0.010 0.081 1970 0.066 0.019 0.009 -0.010 0.084 1971 0.068 0.020 0.009 -0.010 0.086 1972 0.069 0.020 0.009 -0.011 0.088 1973 0.069 0.021 0.010 -0.011 0.089 1974 0.068 0.022 0.010 -0.011 0.089 1975 0.070 0.022 0.010 -0.011 0.091 1976 0.070 0.023 0.010 -0.011 0.091 1977 0.071 0.023 0.011 -0.012 0.093 1978 0.072 0.024 0.011 -0.012 0.095 1979 0.074 0.025 0.011 -0.012 0.097 1980 0.075 0.025 0.011 -0.012 0.099 1981 0.076 0.026 0.011 -0.013 0.101 1982 0.077 0.026 0.012 -0.013 0.103 1983 0.078 0.027 0.012 -0.013 0.104 1984 0.078 0.028 0.012 -0.013 0.104 1985 0.080 0.028 0.012 -0.014 0.107 1986 0.080 0.029 0.013 -0.014 0.107 1987 0.081 0.029 0.013 -0.014 0.109 1988 0.083 0.030 0.013 -0.014 0.112 1989 0.085 0.031 0.013 -0.015 0.115 1990 0.087 0.031 0.014 -0.015 0.117 1991 0.088 0.032 0.014 -0.015 0.119 1992 0.088 0.033 0.014 -0.015 0.120 1993 0.089 0.034 0.015 -0.016 0.122 1994 0.092 0.034 0.015 -0.016 0.126 1995 0.094 0.035 0.016 -0.016 0.129 1996 0.094 0.036 0.016 -0.016 0.129 1997 0.095 0.037 0.016 -0.017 0.132 1998 0.097 0.037 0.017 -0.017 0.134 1999 0.099 0.038 0.017 -0.017 0.137 2000 0.100 0.039 0.018 -0.017 0.140 2001 0.103 0.040 0.018 -0.018 0.143 2002 0.103 0.041 0.019 -0.018 0.144 2003 0.103 0.041 0.019 -0.018 0.145 2004 0.106 0.042 0.019 -0.019 0.149 2005 0.108 0.043 0.020 -0.019 0.152 2006 0.110 0.044 0.020 -0.020 0.154 2007 0.111 0.045 0.021 -0.020 0.156 2008 0.114 0.046 0.021 -0.020 0.161 2009 0.117 0.047 0.022 -0.021 0.164 2010 0.119 0.047 0.022 -0.021 0.167 2011 0.121 0.048 0.022 -0.022 0.171 2012 0.123 0.050 0.023 -0.022 0.173 2013 0.125 0.051 0.024 -0.023 0.177 2014 0.127 0.052 0.024 -0.023 0.180 2015 0.128 0.053 0.025 -0.023 0.182 2016 0.130 0.054 0.025 -0.024 0.185 2017 0.131 0.055 0.026 -0.024 0.187 2018 0.134 0.056 0.026 -0.025 0.191 2019 0.138 0.057 0.027 -0.025 0.196 2020 0.139 0.058 0.027 -0.026 0.199 2021 0.140 0.059 0.028 -0.026 0.201 2022 0.141 0.061 0.029 -0.027 0.203 2023 0.143 0.062 0.029 -0.028 0.206 2024 0.145 0.063 0.030 -0.028 0.209 2025 0.148 0.064 0.030 -0.029 0.214 2026 0.150 0.066 0.031 -0.029 0.218 2027 0.153 0.067 0.032 -0.030 0.222 2028 0.155 0.068 0.032 -0.031 0.225 2029 0.157 0.070 0.033 -0.031 0.228 2030 0.159 0.071 0.034 -0.032 0.232 2031 0.162 0.072 0.034 -0.033 0.237 2032 0.166 0.074 0.035 -0.033 0.242 2033 0.169 0.075 0.036 -0.034 0.247 2034 0.171 0.077 0.037 -0.035 0.250 2035 0.172 0.078 0.038 -0.036 0.253 2036 0.173 0.080 0.039 -0.036 0.256 2037 0.175 0.081 0.040 -0.037 0.259 2038 0.178 0.083 0.041 -0.038 0.264 2039 0.178 0.084 0.042 -0.038 0.266 2040 0.181 0.086 0.043 -0.039 0.270 2041 0.182 0.087 0.044 -0.040 0.273 2042 0.186 0.089 0.044 -0.041 0.278 2043 0.189 0.090 0.045 -0.042 0.282 2044 0.193 0.092 0.046 -0.042 0.288 2045 0.194 0.093 0.047 -0.043 0.291 2046 0.194 0.095 0.048 -0.044 0.292 2047 0.198 0.096 0.048 -0.045 0.298 2048 0.201 0.098 0.049 -0.046 0.302 2049 0.204 0.099 0.050 -0.046 0.307 2050 0.206 0.101 0.051 -0.047 0.310 2051 0.209 0.102 0.052 -0.048 0.315 2052 0.211 0.104 0.052 -0.049 0.319 2053 0.215 0.106 0.053 -0.050 0.325 2054 0.217 0.108 0.054 -0.051 0.328 2055 0.218 0.110 0.055 -0.052 0.331 2056 0.221 0.112 0.056 -0.053 0.336 2057 0.226 0.113 0.057 -0.054 0.342 2058 0.230 0.115 0.057 -0.055 0.348 2059 0.233 0.117 0.058 -0.056 0.353 2060 0.236 0.119 0.059 -0.057 0.357 2061 0.239 0.121 0.060 -0.058 0.362 2062 0.243 0.123 0.061 -0.059 0.368 2063 0.247 0.125 0.062 -0.060 0.374 2064 0.248 0.127 0.063 -0.061 0.378 2065 0.253 0.129 0.064 -0.062 0.384 2066 0.257 0.131 0.065 -0.063 0.390 2067 0.260 0.133 0.066 -0.064 0.396 2068 0.262 0.135 0.067 -0.065 0.399 2069 0.266 0.137 0.069 -0.066 0.405 2070 0.271 0.139 0.070 -0.067 0.412 2071 0.273 0.141 0.071 -0.068 0.417 2072 0.277 0.143 0.072 -0.070 0.422 2073 0.280 0.146 0.073 -0.071 0.428 2074 0.284 0.148 0.074 -0.072 0.434 2075 0.287 0.150 0.075 -0.073 0.439 2076 0.289 0.153 0.076 -0.074 0.443 2077 0.292 0.155 0.077 -0.076 0.449 2078 0.296 0.157 0.078 -0.077 0.454 2079 0.299 0.159 0.079 -0.078 0.460 2080 0.302 0.162 0.081 -0.079 0.465 2081 0.305 0.164 0.082 -0.080 0.471 2082 0.309 0.166 0.083 -0.082 0.477 2083 0.311 0.169 0.084 -0.083 0.481 2084 0.315 0.171 0.085 -0.084 0.487 2085 0.320 0.173 0.086 -0.085 0.494 2086 0.323 0.176 0.087 -0.086 0.500 2087 0.325 0.178 0.088 -0.088 0.504 2088 0.328 0.181 0.090 -0.089 0.510 2089 0.332 0.183 0.091 -0.090 0.515 2090 0.335 0.185 0.092 -0.091 0.521 2091 0.340 0.188 0.093 -0.093 0.529 2092 0.346 0.190 0.094 -0.094 0.536 2093 0.350 0.193 0.096 -0.095 0.543 2094 0.353 0.195 0.097 -0.097 0.548 2095 0.358 0.198 0.098 -0.098 0.555 2096 0.362 0.200 0.099 -0.100 0.562 2097 0.369 0.203 0.100 -0.101 0.571 2098 0.372 0.206 0.102 -0.103 0.577 2099 0.377 0.208 0.103 -0.104 0.584 2100 0.381 0.211 0.104 -0.105 0.590 Sea-level rise/m from run CBQMU Year Expansion Glaciers Greenland Antarctica Total 1861 0.036 1862 0.035 1863 0.036 1864 0.036 1865 0.038 1866 0.040 1867 0.041 1868 0.041 1869 0.041 1870 0.039 1871 0.041 0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.042 1872 0.041 0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.043 1873 0.042 0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.043 1874 0.041 0.001 0.001 -0.001 0.043 1875 0.042 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.044 1876 0.043 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.045 1877 0.044 0.002 0.001 -0.001 0.046 1878 0.044 0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.046 1879 0.041 0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.044 1880 0.039 0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.042 1881 0.040 0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.043 1882 0.041 0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.044 1883 0.042 0.002 0.002 -0.001 0.046 1884 0.044 0.003 0.002 -0.001 0.048 1885 0.046 0.003 0.002 -0.001 0.050 1886 0.047 0.003 0.002 -0.001 0.051 1887 0.046 0.003 0.002 -0.001 0.050 1888 0.045 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.049 1889 0.045 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.049 1890 0.044 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.049 1891 0.046 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.050 1892 0.045 0.003 0.003 -0.002 0.050 1893 0.046 0.003 0.003 -0.002 0.051 1894 0.046 0.004 0.003 -0.002 0.051 1895 0.047 0.004 0.003 -0.002 0.052 1896 0.047 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.053 1897 0.047 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.053 1898 0.048 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.054 1899 0.047 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.054 1900 0.045 0.005 0.004 -0.002 0.051 1901 0.045 0.005 0.004 -0.002 0.052 1902 0.047 0.005 0.005 -0.002 0.054 1903 0.049 0.005 0.005 -0.002 0.057 1904 0.049 0.005 0.005 -0.002 0.057 1905 0.048 0.005 0.005 -0.002 0.056 1906 0.049 0.005 0.005 -0.002 0.057 1907 0.048 0.006 0.005 -0.002 0.057 1908 0.049 0.006 0.006 -0.002 0.058 1909 0.049 0.006 0.006 -0.002 0.058 1910 0.049 0.006 0.006 -0.003 0.059 1911 0.050 0.006 0.006 -0.003 0.060 1912 0.051 0.007 0.006 -0.003 0.061 1913 0.051 0.007 0.006 -0.003 0.062 1914 0.050 0.007 0.007 -0.003 0.061 1915 0.050 0.007 0.007 -0.003 0.061 1916 0.052 0.007 0.007 -0.003 0.063 1917 0.052 0.008 0.007 -0.003 0.064 1918 0.053 0.008 0.007 -0.003 0.065 1919 0.054 0.008 0.008 -0.003 0.066 1920 0.055 0.008 0.008 -0.003 0.068 1921 0.057 0.009 0.008 -0.003 0.070 1922 0.057 0.009 0.008 -0.004 0.070 1923 0.058 0.009 0.008 -0.004 0.072 1924 0.058 0.010 0.008 -0.004 0.073 1925 0.059 0.010 0.009 -0.004 0.073 1926 0.059 0.011 0.009 -0.004 0.074 1927 0.059 0.011 0.009 -0.004 0.074 1928 0.058 0.011 0.009 -0.004 0.074 1929 0.057 0.012 0.009 -0.004 0.074 1930 0.055 0.012 0.010 -0.005 0.072 1931 0.055 0.012 0.010 -0.005 0.073 1932 0.056 0.013 0.010 -0.005 0.074 1933 0.056 0.013 0.010 -0.005 0.074 1934 0.057 0.013 0.010 -0.005 0.076 1935 0.059 0.013 0.010 -0.005 0.078 1936 0.060 0.013 0.011 -0.005 0.079 1937 0.062 0.014 0.011 -0.005 0.081 1938 0.063 0.014 0.011 -0.005 0.082 1939 0.062 0.014 0.011 -0.005 0.082 1940 0.061 0.014 0.011 -0.005 0.081 1941 0.061 0.015 0.012 -0.005 0.082 1942 0.062 0.015 0.012 -0.006 0.083 1943 0.063 0.015 0.012 -0.006 0.085 1944 0.063 0.016 0.012 -0.006 0.085 1945 0.064 0.016 0.013 -0.006 0.087 1946 0.066 0.016 0.013 -0.006 0.089 1947 0.067 0.016 0.013 -0.006 0.090 1948 0.066 0.017 0.013 -0.006 0.090 1949 0.065 0.017 0.014 -0.006 0.089 1950 0.066 0.017 0.014 -0.006 0.091 1951 0.068 0.018 0.014 -0.007 0.093 1952 0.069 0.018 0.014 -0.007 0.094 1953 0.068 0.018 0.015 -0.007 0.093 1954 0.069 0.019 0.015 -0.007 0.095 1955 0.070 0.019 0.015 -0.007 0.096 1956 0.071 0.019 0.015 -0.008 0.098 1957 0.072 0.020 0.016 -0.008 0.099 1958 0.071 0.020 0.016 -0.008 0.099 1959 0.071 0.020 0.016 -0.008 0.099 1960 0.074 0.021 0.016 -0.008 0.102 1961 0.075 0.021 0.017 -0.009 0.104 1962 0.075 0.022 0.017 -0.009 0.105 1963 0.076 0.022 0.017 -0.009 0.106 1964 0.076 0.022 0.017 -0.009 0.106 1965 0.077 0.023 0.018 -0.009 0.108 1966 0.078 0.023 0.018 -0.010 0.109 1967 0.080 0.024 0.018 -0.010 0.112 1968 0.079 0.024 0.018 -0.010 0.112 1969 0.079 0.025 0.019 -0.010 0.112 1970 0.079 0.025 0.019 -0.011 0.113 1971 0.078 0.026 0.019 -0.011 0.113 1972 0.079 0.026 0.020 -0.011 0.114 1973 0.081 0.027 0.020 -0.011 0.117 1974 0.080 0.027 0.020 -0.011 0.117 1975 0.081 0.028 0.021 -0.012 0.118 1976 0.083 0.028 0.021 -0.012 0.121 1977 0.085 0.029 0.021 -0.012 0.123 1978 0.086 0.029 0.021 -0.012 0.125 1979 0.085 0.030 0.022 -0.013 0.125 1980 0.086 0.031 0.022 -0.013 0.126 1981 0.084 0.031 0.022 -0.013 0.125 1982 0.086 0.032 0.023 -0.013 0.128 1983 0.088 0.032 0.023 -0.013 0.130 1984 0.090 0.033 0.024 -0.014 0.133 1985 0.092 0.034 0.024 -0.014 0.136 1986 0.093 0.035 0.024 -0.014 0.138 1987 0.094 0.035 0.025 -0.014 0.140 1988 0.095 0.036 0.025 -0.014 0.142 1989 0.095 0.037 0.026 -0.014 0.143 1990 0.097 0.037 0.026 -0.015 0.145 1991 0.099 0.038 0.026 -0.015 0.148 1992 0.100 0.039 0.027 -0.015 0.151 1993 0.103 0.040 0.027 -0.015 0.154 1994 0.104 0.041 0.028 -0.016 0.156 1995 0.104 0.041 0.028 -0.016 0.157 1996 0.107 0.042 0.028 -0.016 0.161 1997 0.108 0.043 0.029 -0.017 0.163 1998 0.109 0.044 0.029 -0.017 0.165 1999 0.111 0.045 0.030 -0.017 0.168 2000 0.113 0.046 0.030 -0.018 0.171 2001 0.114 0.047 0.031 -0.018 0.174 2002 0.116 0.048 0.031 -0.019 0.177 2003 0.118 0.049 0.032 -0.019 0.180 2004 0.119 0.050 0.032 -0.020 0.182 2005 0.121 0.051 0.033 -0.020 0.185 2006 0.123 0.052 0.034 -0.020 0.188 2007 0.125 0.053 0.034 -0.021 0.191 2008 0.125 0.054 0.035 -0.021 0.193 2009 0.127 0.055 0.035 -0.022 0.195 2010 0.128 0.056 0.036 -0.022 0.198 2011 0.131 0.057 0.037 -0.023 0.202 2012 0.135 0.058 0.037 -0.023 0.207 2013 0.137 0.059 0.038 -0.024 0.210 2014 0.139 0.060 0.038 -0.024 0.214 2015 0.140 0.062 0.039 -0.025 0.216 2016 0.142 0.063 0.040 -0.025 0.219 2017 0.146 0.064 0.040 -0.026 0.224 2018 0.148 0.065 0.041 -0.026 0.227 2019 0.150 0.066 0.041 -0.027 0.230 2020 0.151 0.067 0.042 -0.028 0.232 2021 0.152 0.068 0.042 -0.028 0.235 2022 0.153 0.069 0.043 -0.029 0.237 2023 0.155 0.071 0.044 -0.029 0.240 2024 0.157 0.072 0.044 -0.030 0.243 2025 0.159 0.073 0.045 -0.030 0.247 2026 0.161 0.075 0.045 -0.031 0.251 2027 0.164 0.076 0.046 -0.031 0.255 2028 0.166 0.077 0.047 -0.032 0.258 2029 0.167 0.078 0.047 -0.032 0.260 2030 0.169 0.080 0.048 -0.033 0.263 2031 0.171 0.081 0.049 -0.034 0.267 2032 0.173 0.083 0.049 -0.034 0.271 2033 0.177 0.084 0.050 -0.035 0.277 2034 0.181 0.085 0.051 -0.035 0.282 2035 0.183 0.087 0.052 -0.036 0.286 2036 0.185 0.088 0.053 -0.036 0.289 2037 0.189 0.090 0.053 -0.037 0.295 2038 0.192 0.091 0.054 -0.038 0.300 2039 0.194 0.093 0.055 -0.038 0.303 2040 0.195 0.094 0.056 -0.039 0.306 2041 0.198 0.096 0.056 -0.039 0.310 2042 0.202 0.097 0.057 -0.040 0.316 2043 0.204 0.099 0.058 -0.041 0.320 2044 0.206 0.100 0.059 -0.042 0.323 2045 0.210 0.102 0.060 -0.043 0.329 2046 0.213 0.104 0.061 -0.044 0.333 2047 0.216 0.105 0.062 -0.045 0.338 2048 0.219 0.107 0.063 -0.046 0.343 2049 0.223 0.108 0.063 -0.046 0.349 2050 0.226 0.110 0.064 -0.047 0.353 2051 0.226 0.112 0.065 -0.048 0.355 2052 0.228 0.114 0.066 -0.049 0.358 2053 0.231 0.115 0.067 -0.050 0.363 2054 0.234 0.117 0.068 -0.051 0.368 2055 0.237 0.119 0.069 -0.052 0.374 2056 0.240 0.121 0.070 -0.052 0.378 2057 0.244 0.123 0.071 -0.053 0.385 2058 0.246 0.124 0.072 -0.054 0.389 2059 0.249 0.126 0.073 -0.055 0.393 2060 0.251 0.128 0.074 -0.056 0.398 2061 0.253 0.130 0.075 -0.057 0.401 2062 0.256 0.132 0.076 -0.058 0.407 2063 0.259 0.134 0.077 -0.059 0.411 2064 0.262 0.136 0.078 -0.060 0.416 2065 0.265 0.138 0.079 -0.061 0.420 2066 0.266 0.140 0.080 -0.062 0.424 2067 0.268 0.142 0.081 -0.063 0.428 2068 0.271 0.144 0.082 -0.064 0.432 2069 0.275 0.146 0.083 -0.065 0.438 2070 0.280 0.147 0.084 -0.066 0.445 2071 0.284 0.150 0.085 -0.067 0.451 2072 0.288 0.152 0.086 -0.069 0.457 2073 0.292 0.154 0.087 -0.070 0.463 2074 0.294 0.156 0.088 -0.071 0.467 2075 0.298 0.158 0.089 -0.072 0.473 2076 0.301 0.161 0.090 -0.073 0.479 2077 0.303 0.163 0.091 -0.074 0.482 2078 0.307 0.165 0.092 -0.075 0.489 2079 0.311 0.167 0.093 -0.076 0.495 2080 0.314 0.169 0.094 -0.077 0.501 2081 0.318 0.172 0.095 -0.079 0.506 2082 0.321 0.174 0.097 -0.080 0.512 2083 0.324 0.177 0.098 -0.081 0.517 2084 0.328 0.179 0.099 -0.082 0.524 2085 0.332 0.182 0.100 -0.084 0.531 2086 0.337 0.184 0.101 -0.085 0.538 2087 0.342 0.187 0.103 -0.086 0.545 2088 0.346 0.189 0.104 -0.087 0.552 2089 0.351 0.192 0.105 -0.089 0.559 2090 0.355 0.194 0.106 -0.090 0.565 2091 0.357 0.197 0.107 -0.091 0.570 2092 0.359 0.199 0.109 -0.093 0.575 2093 0.364 0.202 0.110 -0.094 0.581 2094 0.368 0.204 0.112 -0.096 0.588 2095 0.373 0.207 0.113 -0.097 0.595 2096 0.377 0.210 0.114 -0.099 0.602 2097 0.381 0.212 0.116 -0.100 0.609 2098 0.385 0.215 0.117 -0.102 0.615 2099 0.387 0.217 0.118 -0.103 0.620 2100 0.391 0.220 0.120 -0.105 0.626 Sea-level rise/m from run CBQMV Year Expansion Glaciers Greenland Antarctica Total 1861 0.054 1862 0.054 1863 0.055 1864 0.055 1865 0.057 1866 0.058 1867 0.057 1868 0.055 1869 0.054 1870 0.054 1871 0.053 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.055 1872 0.055 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.057 1873 0.057 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.059 1874 0.059 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.062 1875 0.061 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.064 1876 0.061 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.065 1877 0.060 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.064 1878 0.060 0.002 0.003 0.000 0.064 1879 0.060 0.002 0.003 0.000 0.065 1880 0.061 0.002 0.003 0.000 0.066 1881 0.062 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.067 1882 0.062 0.003 0.003 0.000 0.068 1883 0.062 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.067 1884 0.062 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.067 1885 0.064 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.069 1886 0.063 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.069 1887 0.063 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.069 1888 0.063 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.069 1890 0.063 0.003 0.003 -0.001 0.068 1900 0.065 0.005 0.005 -0.003 0.072 1907 0.065 0.006 0.006 -0.004 0.072 1908 0.066 0.006 0.006 -0.004 0.073 1909 0.066 0.006 0.006 -0.004 0.073 1910 0.066 0.006 0.006 -0.004 0.074 1911 0.066 0.006 0.006 -0.004 0.073 1912 0.065 0.006 0.006 -0.004 0.073 1913 0.066 0.006 0.006 -0.004 0.074 1914 0.065 0.007 0.006 -0.004 0.073 1915 0.065 0.007 0.006 -0.004 0.074 1916 0.066 0.007 0.006 -0.004 0.075 1917 0.067 0.007 0.006 -0.004 0.076 1918 0.067 0.007 0.006 -0.004 0.076 1919 0.067 0.007 0.006 -0.004 0.076 1920 0.068 0.008 0.006 -0.004 0.078 1921 0.070 0.008 0.006 -0.005 0.080 1922 0.070 0.008 0.007 -0.005 0.081 1923 0.071 0.008 0.007 -0.005 0.082 1924 0.073 0.009 0.007 -0.005 0.084 1925 0.072 0.009 0.008 -0.005 0.083 1926 0.072 0.009 0.008 -0.005 0.084 1927 0.073 0.009 0.008 -0.006 0.085 1928 0.074 0.010 0.009 -0.006 0.087 1929 0.076 0.010 0.009 -0.006 0.089 1930 0.077 0.010 0.009 -0.006 0.090 1931 0.076 0.011 0.010 -0.006 0.090 1932 0.075 0.011 0.010 -0.006 0.090 1933 0.075 0.011 0.010 -0.006 0.090 1934 0.077 0.011 0.010 -0.007 0.092 1935 0.076 0.012 0.011 -0.007 0.092 1936 0.078 0.012 0.011 -0.007 0.094 1937 0.078 0.012 0.011 -0.007 0.095 1938 0.079 0.012 0.011 -0.007 0.096 1939 0.080 0.013 0.011 -0.007 0.097 1940 0.079 0.013 0.012 -0.007 0.097 1941 0.079 0.013 0.012 -0.007 0.097 1942 0.080 0.014 0.012 -0.008 0.098 1943 0.080 0.014 0.012 -0.008 0.098 1944 0.079 0.014 0.013 -0.008 0.098 1945 0.079 0.014 0.013 -0.008 0.098 1946 0.081 0.015 0.013 -0.008 0.101 1947 0.083 0.015 0.013 -0.008 0.103 1948 0.083 0.015 0.013 -0.008 0.103 1949 0.082 0.016 0.013 -0.008 0.103 1950 0.083 0.016 0.014 -0.009 0.104 1951 0.082 0.016 0.014 -0.009 0.104 1952 0.081 0.017 0.014 -0.009 0.103 1953 0.082 0.017 0.014 -0.009 0.104 1954 0.083 0.017 0.014 -0.009 0.106 1955 0.084 0.018 0.014 -0.009 0.107 1956 0.086 0.018 0.015 -0.009 0.109 1957 0.085 0.019 0.015 -0.010 0.109 1958 0.085 0.019 0.015 -0.010 0.109 1959 0.085 0.019 0.015 -0.010 0.110 1960 0.086 0.020 0.015 -0.010 0.111 1961 0.088 0.020 0.015 -0.010 0.113 1962 0.087 0.021 0.015 -0.010 0.113 1963 0.087 0.021 0.016 -0.011 0.113 1964 0.088 0.021 0.016 -0.011 0.114 1965 0.090 0.022 0.016 -0.011 0.116 1966 0.091 0.022 0.016 -0.011 0.118 1967 0.091 0.023 0.016 -0.011 0.118 1968 0.092 0.023 0.016 -0.012 0.120 1969 0.093 0.023 0.016 -0.012 0.120 1970 0.094 0.024 0.016 -0.012 0.122 1971 0.095 0.024 0.017 -0.012 0.124 1972 0.095 0.025 0.017 -0.013 0.124 1973 0.094 0.025 0.017 -0.013 0.125 1974 0.096 0.026 0.018 -0.013 0.126 1975 0.096 0.027 0.018 -0.013 0.127 1976 0.097 0.027 0.018 -0.013 0.129 1977 0.097 0.028 0.019 -0.013 0.130 1978 0.098 0.028 0.019 -0.014 0.132 1979 0.099 0.029 0.019 -0.014 0.134 1980 0.100 0.029 0.019 -0.014 0.135 1981 0.102 0.030 0.020 -0.014 0.138 1982 0.104 0.031 0.020 -0.015 0.140 1983 0.104 0.031 0.021 -0.015 0.141 1984 0.104 0.032 0.021 -0.015 0.141 1985 0.103 0.033 0.021 -0.016 0.142 1986 0.105 0.033 0.022 -0.016 0.144 1987 0.107 0.034 0.022 -0.016 0.146 1988 0.108 0.034 0.023 -0.016 0.149 1989 0.112 0.035 0.023 -0.017 0.153 1990 0.112 0.036 0.023 -0.017 0.154 1991 0.113 0.036 0.024 -0.017 0.155 1992 0.114 0.037 0.024 -0.018 0.158 1993 0.114 0.038 0.025 -0.018 0.159 1994 0.116 0.039 0.025 -0.019 0.162 1995 0.118 0.040 0.026 -0.019 0.165 1996 0.120 0.041 0.026 -0.019 0.168 1997 0.122 0.042 0.027 -0.020 0.171 1998 0.122 0.043 0.027 -0.020 0.172 1999 0.124 0.044 0.028 -0.021 0.175 2000 0.126 0.045 0.028 -0.021 0.178 2001 0.127 0.046 0.029 -0.021 0.180 2002 0.128 0.047 0.029 -0.022 0.182 2003 0.129 0.048 0.030 -0.022 0.184 2004 0.132 0.049 0.030 -0.023 0.188 2005 0.133 0.050 0.031 -0.023 0.189 2006 0.136 0.050 0.031 -0.024 0.194 2007 0.139 0.051 0.032 -0.024 0.197 2008 0.140 0.052 0.032 -0.025 0.200 2009 0.140 0.053 0.033 -0.025 0.200 2010 0.141 0.054 0.033 -0.026 0.202 2011 0.142 0.055 0.034 -0.026 0.205 2012 0.144 0.057 0.034 -0.027 0.208 2013 0.148 0.058 0.035 -0.028 0.214 2014 0.151 0.059 0.036 -0.028 0.218 2015 0.155 0.060 0.036 -0.029 0.223 2016 0.158 0.062 0.037 -0.029 0.228 2017 0.160 0.063 0.037 -0.030 0.231 2018 0.163 0.064 0.038 -0.031 0.235 2019 0.165 0.066 0.039 -0.031 0.238 2020 0.165 0.067 0.039 -0.032 0.239 2021 0.166 0.068 0.040 -0.032 0.242 2022 0.167 0.069 0.041 -0.033 0.244 2023 0.168 0.071 0.042 -0.033 0.247 2024 0.170 0.072 0.042 -0.034 0.250 2025 0.171 0.073 0.043 -0.035 0.252 2026 0.174 0.074 0.044 -0.035 0.257 2027 0.178 0.076 0.044 -0.036 0.262 2028 0.180 0.077 0.045 -0.036 0.266 2029 0.181 0.078 0.046 -0.037 0.268 2030 0.183 0.080 0.046 -0.037 0.271 2031 0.184 0.081 0.047 -0.038 0.275 2032 0.187 0.082 0.048 -0.038 0.279 2033 0.189 0.084 0.049 -0.039 0.283 2034 0.190 0.085 0.049 -0.039 0.286 2035 0.192 0.087 0.050 -0.040 0.289 2036 0.195 0.088 0.051 -0.041 0.294 2037 0.198 0.090 0.052 -0.041 0.299 2038 0.200 0.091 0.052 -0.042 0.302 2040 0.203 0.094 0.054 -0.043 0.308 2041 0.205 0.096 0.055 -0.043 0.312 2042 0.209 0.098 0.056 -0.044 0.318 2043 0.212 0.099 0.056 -0.045 0.322 2044 0.215 0.101 0.057 -0.046 0.327 2045 0.220 0.102 0.058 -0.047 0.334 2046 0.223 0.104 0.059 -0.047 0.339 2047 0.226 0.105 0.060 -0.048 0.344 2048 0.229 0.107 0.061 -0.049 0.348 2049 0.233 0.109 0.062 -0.050 0.354 2050 0.234 0.110 0.063 -0.051 0.356 2051 0.237 0.112 0.064 -0.052 0.361 2052 0.240 0.114 0.065 -0.052 0.366 2053 0.243 0.116 0.066 -0.053 0.371 2054 0.246 0.118 0.067 -0.054 0.376 2055 0.249 0.120 0.068 -0.055 0.381 2056 0.253 0.121 0.069 -0.056 0.386 2057 0.255 0.123 0.070 -0.057 0.390 2058 0.258 0.125 0.071 -0.058 0.396 2059 0.261 0.127 0.071 -0.059 0.400 2060 0.263 0.129 0.072 -0.060 0.404 2061 0.267 0.131 0.073 -0.061 0.410 2062 0.268 0.133 0.075 -0.062 0.414 2063 0.272 0.135 0.076 -0.063 0.420 2064 0.273 0.137 0.077 -0.065 0.422 2065 0.276 0.139 0.078 -0.066 0.427 2066 0.280 0.141 0.079 -0.067 0.433 2067 0.284 0.143 0.080 -0.068 0.439 2068 0.288 0.145 0.081 -0.069 0.446 2069 0.291 0.148 0.082 -0.070 0.451 2070 0.296 0.150 0.083 -0.071 0.458 2071 0.300 0.152 0.084 -0.072 0.464 2072 0.303 0.154 0.086 -0.073 0.470 2073 0.306 0.156 0.087 -0.075 0.474 2074 0.307 0.159 0.088 -0.076 0.478 2075 0.312 0.161 0.089 -0.077 0.485 2076 0.316 0.163 0.090 -0.078 0.491 2077 0.319 0.166 0.092 -0.079 0.496 2078 0.321 0.168 0.093 -0.080 0.501 2079 0.325 0.170 0.094 -0.082 0.507 2080 0.326 0.172 0.095 -0.083 0.510 2081 0.328 0.175 0.096 -0.084 0.516 2082 0.332 0.177 0.098 -0.085 0.521 2083 0.337 0.179 0.099 -0.087 0.528 2084 0.340 0.182 0.100 -0.088 0.534 2085 0.343 0.184 0.101 -0.089 0.540 2087 0.351 0.189 0.104 -0.092 0.552 2088 0.355 0.191 0.105 -0.093 0.558 2089 0.358 0.193 0.106 -0.094 0.563 2090 0.362 0.196 0.107 -0.095 0.570 2091 0.365 0.198 0.109 -0.097 0.576 2092 0.369 0.201 0.110 -0.098 0.582 2093 0.373 0.203 0.111 -0.100 0.588 2094 0.376 0.206 0.113 -0.101 0.593 2095 0.380 0.208 0.114 -0.103 0.600 2096 0.384 0.211 0.115 -0.104 0.606 2097 0.390 0.213 0.117 -0.106 0.614 2098 0.395 0.216 0.118 -0.107 0.622 2099 0.399 0.219 0.119 -0.108 0.628 2100 0.403 0.221 0.121 -0.110 0.635 Sea-level rise/m from run AAWZA Year Expansion Glaciers Greenland Antarctica Total 1991 0.085 1992 0.086 1993 0.087 1994 0.087 1995 0.089 1996 0.092 1997 0.093 1998 0.094 1999 0.095 2000 0.097 2001 0.100 2002 0.102 2003 0.102 2004 0.102 2005 0.104 2006 0.106 2007 0.109 2008 0.111 2009 0.113 2010 0.115 2011 0.115 2012 0.115 2013 0.117 2014 0.118 2015 0.120 2016 0.121 2017 0.123 2018 0.126 2019 0.130 2020 0.132 2021 0.133 2022 0.136 2023 0.137 2024 0.137 2025 0.138 2026 0.139 2027 0.141 2028 0.143 2029 0.144 2030 0.145 2031 0.145 2032 0.146 2033 0.149 2034 0.151 2035 0.155 2036 0.154 2037 0.156 2038 0.155 2039 0.157 2040 0.158 2041 0.164 2042 0.165 2043 0.167 2044 0.168 2045 0.171 2046 0.173 2047 0.176 2048 0.177 2049 0.179 2050 0.179 2051 0.180 2052 0.182 2053 0.184 2054 0.184 2055 0.186 2056 0.186 2057 0.191 2058 0.193 2059 0.196 2060 0.198 2061 0.199 2062 0.202 2063 0.202 2064 0.204 2065 0.206 2066 0.207 2067 0.210 2068 0.212 2069 0.216 2070 0.218 2071 0.219 2072 0.220 2073 0.221 2074 0.222 2075 0.222 2076 0.224 2077 0.226 2078 0.229 2079 0.230 2080 0.232 2081 0.234 2082 0.236 2083 0.237 2084 0.238 2085 0.241 2086 0.243 2087 0.247 2088 0.247 2089 0.250 2090 0.252 2091 0.255 2092 0.256 2093 0.258 2094 0.260 2095 0.262 2096 0.262 2097 0.264 2098 0.265 2099 0.268 2100 0.271 2101 0.274 2102 0.276 2103 0.276 2104 0.277 2105 0.279 2106 0.281 2107 0.282 2108 0.285 2109 0.287 2110 0.289 2111 0.291 2112 0.293 2113 0.293 2114 0.296 2115 0.299 2116 0.301 2117 0.301 2118 0.303 2119 0.305 2120 0.307 2121 0.309 2122 0.311 2123 0.315 2124 0.317 2125 0.318 2126 0.321 2127 0.324 2128 0.326 2129 0.326 2130 0.327 2131 0.330 2132 0.331 2133 0.331 2134 0.334 2135 0.335 2136 0.337 2137 0.339 2138 0.342 2139 0.345 2140 0.347 2141 0.348 2142 0.348 2143 0.349 2144 0.353 2145 0.354 2146 0.356 2147 0.357 2148 0.361 2149 0.363 2150 0.365 2151 0.367 2152 0.370 2153 0.371 2154 0.372 2155 0.373 2156 0.374 2157 0.378 2158 0.379 2159 0.380 2160 0.384 2161 0.385 2162 0.387 2163 0.389 2164 0.389 2165 0.390 2166 0.392 2167 0.393 2168 0.395 2169 0.395 2170 0.397 2171 0.400 2172 0.401 2173 0.402 2174 0.403 2175 0.405 2176 0.407 2177 0.409 2178 0.411 2179 0.413 2180 0.415 2181 0.417 2182 0.421 2183 0.423 2184 0.425 2185 0.428 2186 0.429 2187 0.431 2188 0.433 2189 0.434 2190 0.436 2191 0.436 2192 0.438 2193 0.440 2194 0.440 2195 0.443 2196 0.446 2197 0.449 2198 0.450 2199 0.452 2200 0.453 2201 0.454 2202 0.455 2203 0.456 2204 0.458 2205 0.460 2206 0.462 2207 0.464 2208 0.466 2209 0.468 2210 0.470 2211 0.471 2212 0.473 2213 0.475 2214 0.478 2215 0.480 2216 0.481 2217 0.483 2218 0.483 2219 0.486 2220 0.487 2221 0.489 2222 0.490 2223 0.491 2224 0.492 2225 0.494 2226 0.495 2227 0.497 2228 0.498 2229 0.502 2230 0.505 2231 0.506 2232 0.507 2233 0.508 2234 0.509 2235 0.508 2236 0.510 2237 0.513 2238 0.516 2239 0.517 2240 0.520 2241 0.521 2242 0.523 2243 0.523 2244 0.523 2245 0.523 2246 0.525 2247 0.527 2248 0.530 2249 0.530 2250 0.531 2077. 1998-07-13 10:11:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 10:11:12 +0100 (BST) from: Jason A Lowe subject: Re: sea-level to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) Dear Mike, > Geoff Jenkins forwarded your/Jonathan's sea-level rise estimates to me for > the UKCIP scenario. Can I check I have interpretated them correctly? By > 2100 IS92d GHG run generates (wrt 1990): > > +27.0cm thermal expansion > +14.4cm glacier melt > +7.4cm Greenland melt > -7.2cm Antarctica melt > > +41.6cm total sea-level rise. > > This compares with something between 55cm and 60cm for 'IS92a' GHG run. >Are these calculations from the 1st ensemble member or from the ensemble-mean? > Sorry I couldn't get back to you last week, I was off sick. I see from the various E-mails that have been going backwards and forwards that Jonathan has clarified the ice melt calculations are correct wrt 1990. The thermal expansion 27.5 cm is relative to 1860 (there was a header on the raw data I forwarded to Geoff). The value relative to 1990 is 20.9 cm. These are the results for the Ensemble mean. On another subject, HadCM3 thermal expansion results are available as decadal averages. The yearly values should be available in a couple of days. Jonathan tells me you would like the HadCM3 data but was uncertain whether you require the yearly or decadal values - which would you like ? Regards Jason -- Dr Jason A Lowe Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research UK Met. Office Tel: +44(0)1344 856883 Fax: +44(0)1344 854898 E-mail: jalowe@meto.gov.uk 5253. 1998-07-13 10:41:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 10:41:09 +0100 (BST) from: Jonathan Gregory subject: aawza - S550 to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Sea-level rise/m from run AAWZA Year Expansion Glaciers Greenland Antarctica Total 1991 0.004 1992 0.005 1993 0.006 1994 0.005 1995 0.007 1996 0.010 1997 0.011 1998 0.011 1999 0.013 2000 0.014 2001 0.017 0.007 0.004 -0.004 0.024 2002 0.019 0.007 0.004 -0.004 0.027 2003 0.019 0.008 0.004 -0.005 0.027 2004 0.019 0.009 0.005 -0.005 0.028 2005 0.021 0.010 0.005 -0.005 0.031 2006 0.023 0.011 0.006 -0.006 0.033 2007 0.025 0.011 0.006 -0.006 0.036 2008 0.028 0.012 0.006 -0.007 0.039 2009 0.030 0.013 0.007 -0.007 0.042 2010 0.031 0.014 0.007 -0.008 0.044 2011 0.031 0.014 0.007 -0.008 0.045 2012 0.031 0.015 0.008 -0.009 0.046 2013 0.033 0.016 0.008 -0.009 0.048 2014 0.034 0.017 0.009 -0.010 0.050 2015 0.035 0.018 0.009 -0.010 0.053 2016 0.037 0.019 0.009 -0.010 0.055 2017 0.039 0.020 0.010 -0.011 0.058 2018 0.042 0.021 0.010 -0.011 0.062 2019 0.045 0.022 0.010 -0.012 0.066 2020 0.047 0.023 0.011 -0.012 0.069 2021 0.048 0.024 0.011 -0.013 0.071 2022 0.051 0.025 0.012 -0.013 0.075 2023 0.051 0.026 0.012 -0.013 0.076 2024 0.052 0.027 0.013 -0.014 0.078 2025 0.053 0.028 0.013 -0.014 0.080 2026 0.054 0.029 0.014 -0.015 0.082 2027 0.055 0.030 0.014 -0.015 0.084 2028 0.058 0.031 0.015 -0.015 0.088 2029 0.058 0.032 0.015 -0.016 0.089 2030 0.059 0.033 0.016 -0.016 0.091 2031 0.059 0.034 0.016 -0.017 0.092 2032 0.060 0.035 0.017 -0.017 0.094 2033 0.062 0.036 0.017 -0.018 0.098 2034 0.065 0.037 0.018 -0.018 0.101 2035 0.068 0.038 0.018 -0.019 0.106 2036 0.067 0.039 0.019 -0.019 0.106 2037 0.069 0.040 0.019 -0.020 0.109 2038 0.068 0.041 0.020 -0.020 0.109 2039 0.070 0.042 0.020 -0.021 0.111 2040 0.071 0.043 0.021 -0.021 0.113 2041 0.076 0.044 0.021 -0.022 0.120 2042 0.078 0.045 0.022 -0.022 0.123 2043 0.079 0.047 0.023 -0.023 0.126 2044 0.080 0.048 0.023 -0.024 0.128 2045 0.083 0.049 0.024 -0.025 0.131 2046 0.085 0.050 0.025 -0.025 0.135 2047 0.088 0.051 0.025 -0.026 0.139 2048 0.089 0.053 0.026 -0.027 0.141 2049 0.091 0.054 0.027 -0.027 0.144 2050 0.090 0.055 0.028 -0.028 0.145 2051 0.091 0.056 0.028 -0.029 0.147 2052 0.093 0.058 0.029 -0.029 0.151 2053 0.095 0.059 0.030 -0.030 0.154 2054 0.095 0.060 0.030 -0.030 0.155 2055 0.097 0.061 0.031 -0.031 0.158 2056 0.097 0.062 0.032 -0.031 0.160 2057 0.102 0.064 0.032 -0.032 0.166 2058 0.103 0.065 0.033 -0.033 0.169 2059 0.106 0.066 0.034 -0.033 0.173 2060 0.108 0.067 0.034 -0.034 0.176 2061 0.109 0.069 0.035 -0.034 0.178 2062 0.112 0.070 0.035 -0.035 0.182 2063 0.111 0.071 0.036 -0.036 0.183 2064 0.114 0.073 0.037 -0.036 0.187 2065 0.115 0.074 0.037 -0.037 0.189 2066 0.117 0.075 0.038 -0.038 0.192 2067 0.119 0.077 0.038 -0.038 0.196 2068 0.121 0.078 0.039 -0.039 0.199 2069 0.125 0.079 0.040 -0.040 0.204 2070 0.127 0.081 0.040 -0.040 0.207 2071 0.127 0.082 0.041 -0.041 0.209 2072 0.128 0.083 0.041 -0.042 0.212 2073 0.130 0.085 0.042 -0.042 0.214 2074 0.131 0.086 0.043 -0.043 0.216 2075 0.130 0.087 0.043 -0.044 0.217 2076 0.132 0.089 0.044 -0.044 0.220 2077 0.134 0.090 0.045 -0.045 0.224 2078 0.137 0.092 0.045 -0.046 0.228 2079 0.137 0.093 0.046 -0.046 0.230 2080 0.140 0.094 0.047 -0.047 0.234 2081 0.142 0.096 0.047 -0.047 0.238 2082 0.144 0.097 0.048 -0.048 0.240 2083 0.144 0.099 0.048 -0.049 0.243 2084 0.145 0.100 0.049 -0.049 0.245 2085 0.148 0.101 0.050 -0.050 0.249 2086 0.150 0.103 0.050 -0.051 0.253 2087 0.154 0.104 0.051 -0.051 0.258 2088 0.154 0.106 0.052 -0.052 0.259 2089 0.157 0.107 0.052 -0.052 0.264 2090 0.159 0.109 0.053 -0.053 0.267 2091 0.161 0.110 0.053 -0.054 0.271 2092 0.162 0.111 0.054 -0.054 0.273 2093 0.164 0.113 0.055 -0.055 0.276 2094 0.165 0.114 0.055 -0.056 0.279 2095 0.167 0.116 0.056 -0.057 0.282 2096 0.168 0.117 0.056 -0.057 0.284 2097 0.170 0.119 0.057 -0.058 0.287 2098 0.171 0.120 0.058 -0.059 0.290 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0.208 0.103 -0.109 0.472 2155 0.272 0.209 0.104 -0.110 0.474 2156 0.273 0.211 0.104 -0.111 0.477 2157 0.277 0.213 0.105 -0.112 0.483 2158 0.277 0.215 0.106 -0.113 0.485 2159 0.278 0.216 0.107 -0.114 0.488 2160 0.282 0.218 0.108 -0.115 0.493 2161 0.283 0.220 0.109 -0.116 0.496 2162 0.285 0.221 0.110 -0.117 0.500 2163 0.287 0.223 0.111 -0.118 0.502 2164 0.287 0.225 0.111 -0.119 0.504 2165 0.288 0.226 0.112 -0.120 0.507 2166 0.290 0.228 0.113 -0.121 0.510 2167 0.290 0.230 0.114 -0.122 0.512 2168 0.292 0.231 0.115 -0.123 0.515 2169 0.292 0.233 0.116 -0.124 0.517 2170 0.294 0.234 0.117 -0.125 0.520 2171 0.296 0.236 0.118 -0.126 0.524 2172 0.298 0.238 0.119 -0.127 0.527 2173 0.298 0.240 0.119 -0.128 0.529 2174 0.299 0.241 0.120 -0.129 0.532 2175 0.301 0.243 0.121 -0.130 0.536 2176 0.304 0.245 0.122 -0.131 0.540 2177 0.305 0.247 0.123 -0.132 0.543 2178 0.307 0.248 0.124 -0.133 0.546 2179 0.309 0.250 0.125 -0.134 0.550 2180 0.310 0.252 0.126 -0.135 0.553 2181 0.313 0.254 0.127 -0.136 0.557 2182 0.317 0.255 0.128 -0.137 0.562 2183 0.319 0.257 0.129 -0.138 0.566 2184 0.320 0.259 0.129 -0.139 0.569 2185 0.323 0.261 0.130 -0.140 0.574 2186 0.324 0.262 0.131 -0.141 0.577 2187 0.326 0.264 0.132 -0.142 0.579 2188 0.327 0.266 0.133 -0.144 0.583 2189 0.328 0.268 0.134 -0.145 0.585 2190 0.330 0.269 0.135 -0.146 0.589 2191 0.331 0.271 0.136 -0.147 0.591 2192 0.332 0.273 0.137 -0.148 0.594 2193 0.334 0.275 0.138 -0.149 0.597 2194 0.334 0.276 0.139 -0.150 0.599 2195 0.337 0.278 0.140 -0.151 0.604 2196 0.340 0.280 0.141 -0.152 0.608 2197 0.343 0.282 0.142 -0.153 0.613 2198 0.344 0.283 0.143 -0.154 0.616 2199 0.345 0.285 0.144 -0.155 0.619 2200 0.346 0.287 0.145 -0.157 0.621 2201 0.347 0.289 0.146 -0.158 0.624 2202 0.348 0.290 0.147 -0.159 0.626 2203 0.349 0.292 0.148 -0.160 0.629 2204 0.351 0.294 0.148 -0.161 0.633 2205 0.353 0.295 0.149 -0.162 0.636 2206 0.354 0.297 0.150 -0.163 0.639 2207 0.356 0.299 0.151 -0.164 0.642 2208 0.358 0.300 0.152 -0.165 0.646 2209 0.360 0.302 0.153 -0.166 0.649 2210 0.362 0.304 0.154 -0.167 0.653 2211 0.363 0.305 0.155 -0.168 0.655 2212 0.365 0.307 0.156 -0.169 0.659 2213 0.367 0.309 0.157 -0.170 0.662 2214 0.370 0.310 0.157 -0.171 0.667 2215 0.371 0.312 0.158 -0.172 0.669 2216 0.372 0.314 0.159 -0.173 0.672 2217 0.374 0.316 0.160 -0.175 0.676 2218 0.375 0.317 0.161 -0.176 0.677 2219 0.377 0.319 0.162 -0.177 0.681 2220 0.378 0.321 0.163 -0.178 0.683 2221 0.380 0.322 0.164 -0.179 0.687 2222 0.380 0.324 0.165 -0.180 0.689 2223 0.382 0.326 0.166 -0.181 0.693 2224 0.383 0.328 0.166 -0.182 0.695 2225 0.384 0.330 0.167 -0.183 0.699 2226 0.386 0.331 0.168 -0.184 0.701 2227 0.387 0.333 0.169 -0.185 0.705 2228 0.389 0.335 0.170 -0.186 0.708 2229 0.392 0.337 0.171 -0.187 0.713 2230 0.395 0.338 0.172 -0.188 0.718 2231 0.396 0.340 0.173 -0.189 0.720 2232 0.397 0.342 0.174 -0.190 0.723 2233 0.398 0.344 0.175 -0.191 0.725 2234 0.398 0.346 0.176 -0.192 0.728 2235 0.398 0.347 0.177 -0.194 0.729 2236 0.399 0.349 0.178 -0.195 0.732 2237 0.402 0.351 0.179 -0.196 0.737 2238 0.405 0.353 0.180 -0.197 0.741 2239 0.406 0.355 0.181 -0.198 0.744 2240 0.409 0.356 0.182 -0.199 0.748 2241 0.410 0.358 0.183 -0.200 0.751 2242 0.411 0.360 0.184 -0.202 0.754 2243 0.412 0.362 0.185 -0.203 0.756 2244 0.411 0.364 0.186 -0.204 0.757 2245 0.411 0.365 0.186 -0.205 0.758 2246 0.413 0.367 0.187 -0.206 0.762 2247 0.415 0.369 0.188 -0.207 0.765 2248 0.418 0.371 0.189 -0.208 0.770 2249 0.418 0.373 0.190 -0.209 0.771 2250 0.419 0.374 0.190 -0.210 0.773 1329. 1998-07-14 13:07:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 14 Jul 1998 13:07:42 +0000 from: Tony McMichael subject: 3 items to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, Three things: 1. We are drafting an outline application, with Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (PHLS) co-investigators, to the Wellcome Trust for a study of the recent historical relationships of climatic trends/variations to the occurrence of various climate-sensitive infectious diseases, both in Britain and Europe-wide. We have had some limited experience in using climatic data for this type of study, but we would appreciate having some more expert input on that front to this larger study. Would you (or a nominated colleague) be interested, and able, to be a named "recognised collaborator" on this application? (At this stage, it's just a two-page outline, to see if it fits their funding criteria. We must submit it within about 10 days.) 2. We have been advised by the EC that we will not hear about our Advanced Study Course (Sept 1999) until sometime this September. 3. My colleague Sari Kovats (who works with me on IPCC matters, as well as research - and, indeed, is about to enrol for a PhD here) is interested in attending some sessions at the impending Second International Climate and history Conference, at UEA. Do you have any cut-price deals? Tony McMichael --- From: A.J. McMichael Professor of Epidemiology Department of Epidemiology and Population Health London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Keppel Street London WC1E 7HT U.K. Ph: +44 171 927.2254 Fax: +44 171 580.6897 email: t.mcmichael@LSHTM.ac.uk Web: http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/eps/eu/euintro.htm 5245. 1998-07-15 15:08:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 15 Jul 1998 15:08:33 +0100 (BST) from: Jason A Lowe subject: Re: sea-level to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Mike, > > A reminder about the HadCM3 thermal expansion numbers - decade-means would > be fine. > > I think Jonathan was going to generate the melt components separately. > I am enclosing the decadal means for thermal expansion and the melt components (supplied by Jonathan). YEAR EXPANSION GLACIER GREENLAND ANTARCTICA 1859 .000 .000 .000 .000 1869 .001 .000 -.001 .001 1879 .000 .001 .000 .002 1889 .001 .001 -.002 .001 1899 .005 .001 -.001 .001 1909 .006 .001 -.001 .000 1919 .006 .002 .000 .000 1929 .008 .003 .001 -.001 1939 .011 .004 .000 -.002 1949 .016 .007 .001 -.002 1959 .019 .008 .002 -.002 1969 .023 .010 .003 -.004 1979 .033 .013 .006 -.007 1989 .046 .018 .010 -.010 1999 .060 .025 .014 -.015 2009 .074 .034 .020 -.020 2019 .092 .044 .026 -.024 2029 .113 .053 .031 -.030 2039 .135 .066 .036 -.037 2049 .160 .081 .043 -.045 2059 .190 .099 .053 -.054 2069 .220 .117 .063 -.063 2079 .250 .141 .076 -.075 2089 .280 .164 .086 -.088 2099 .312 .191 .099 -.101 The values are given for 1st December on the year in the first column and where generated using decadal mean temperatures. The sea-level changes are in units of metres and are relative to 1860. On a seperate note, Jonathan also suggested you might know the "best" values of the ice parameters used in current runs of Magicc. Regards Jason -- Dr Jason A Lowe Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research UK Met. Office Tel: +44(0)1344 856883 Fax: +44(0)1344 854898 E-mail: jalowe@meto.gov.uk 3138. 1998-07-20 18:00+0 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 20 Jul 1998 18:00 +0000 (GMT) from: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk subject: Scenarios issues to: scenarios@meto.gov.uk Dear colleagues, I will like to post here some correspondence which is clearly relevant for this "scenarios discussion group" regarding some issues related to the use of the new emission scenarios, simple models, etc. Please post any comments on these issues or any other issue that you may want to raise to the following address "scenarios@meto.gov.uk". I have added the following experts to the list posted in my first Email: P Wagner R Watson J Edmonds S Smith G Marland Many thanks. Maria Noguer *********************************** Issues raised by J Mitchell: 1. There are several uses for scenarios: a) Conversion to concentration using chemistry models to produce forcing curves b) Forcings for GCM runs c) Use in simpler models to produce global mean curves of concentrations, forcing, temperature and sea level. This would requires a simple model which is documented and calibrated against one (preferably several) climate models. The final IPCC approved scenarios will not be available until February 2000, so we should decide now on which draft scenarios to use 2. The provisional emissions will be made available imminently. These need to be evaluated as there are four basic families and many variants. How is the median scenario defined? 3. What criteria are to be set for the simpler models used for global mean projections? ************************************* Issue raised by Tom Wigley and reponses: Date: Mon, 13 Jul 1998 11:00:54 -0600 (MDT) From: Tom Wigley To: Sir John Houghton , Patricia WAGNER , Hugh Pitcher , Robert Watson Cc: Jae Edmonds , Mike Hulme , Atul Jain , Fortunat Joos , Richard Richels , Dave Schimel , ssmith@ucar.edu Subject: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios Dear Bob, Hugh, Naki and John, Mike Hulme has told me something that is quite alarming about the soon-to-be-released 'IPCC' CO2 emissions scenarios. If this is correct, you/IPCC should try to remedy it as a matter of some urgency. He said that the new 'IPCC' CO2 emissions scenarios will still begin in 1990 and will not use observed (Marland) emissions for the 1990s. You may either not realize, or not remember, that during the preparation of the SAR and (especially) TPs 2 and 4, IPCC was frequently criticized for using out-of-date emissions data that were manifestly wrong during the 1990s. It would be extremely embarrassing to be subject to the same criticism with the TAR. Indeed, since the criticism is a justifiable one, it would be inexcusable not to have responded to it. Equally embarrassing should be the fact that, in the published literature (my 1997 Nature and 1998 GRL papers), this 'error' has already been avoided. How can you get around this problem? Ideally, the energy-economics models need to be revised to begin in or around 2000 instead of 1990. Indeed, in talking to Rich Richels about this issue, as well as echoing my concern, he noted that his model (MERGE) is currently being updated in just this way. He also pointed out that beginning an energy-economics model run in 1990 leads to considerable 'flexibility' in 2000 emissions; when, in fact, the 2000 emissions will already be fixed and known by the time the TAR comes out. It is probably impossible to make this ideal type of 'fix', but a 'fix' can still be made. What you could do is just what I have done in the above two papers. This is a simple procedure that CAN be used since it is in the published literature. All I did was use observed emissions to 1996 (as far as data were available), linearly extrapolate these to 2000 (under the assumption that this was a better projection than the corresponding IS92a projection), and then use IS92a CHANGES from 2000. You may be able to improve on the second step, but this is unimportant. The crucial thing is to get the beginning years of the record to match observed emissions as far as such data are available. The above, by the way, does not have to be applied to emissions from land-use change because of the way we deal with initialization with the carbon cycle models. We do not use historical land-use- change emissions. You may argue that, in terms of projected CO2 concentrations, incorrect 1990s emissions have only a minor effect. This is such an obviously specious argument that I won't bother to discuss it. Not least, it will not satisfy the critics. A parallel issue does, however, arise with the CO2 concentration stabilization profiles. The 'S' profiles are already ludicrous, since their concentrations and implied emissions already diverge markedly from observations. The WRE profiles diverge less, but still enough for me to deem that they need revising. I have, in fact, already done this. I would be happy to pass the new profiles on to IPCC. Best wishes, Tom ======================================================= >From Robert Watson on July 13: Tom: I appreciate you bringing this critical issue to the fore - you are absolutely right that we must not look naive. I assume that Naki and Jon et al. Will deal with this while I an on vacation for the next four days. Bob ========================================================= Date: Wed, 15 Jul 1998 02:18:09 +0000 From: David Schimel To: Tom Wigley Subject: Re: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios Tom, I raised this issue at the scoping meeting in Bad (very bad) Munstereieffel, where it was greeted with general agreement but it appeared to come as a complete surprise to many that scenarios should have a relationship to reality. There was also general mild surprise at the degree of non GCM-community interest in following Kyoto and stabilization rather than 1% per year and similar reactions to the fact that 1% year doubles the current rate of change. But the wind is shifting DS ======================================================== Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 09:46:49 -0500 From: Atul Jain To: Tom Wigley Cc: Sir John Houghton , Patricia WAGNER , Hugh Pitcher , Jae Edmonds , Mike Hulme , Fortunat Joos , Richard Richels , Dave Schimel , ssmith@ucar.edu Subject: Re: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios Dear Tom, I got the same impression from Hugh's talk during the last week Community Meeting on IA, which was sponsored by NSF. It does not matter so much whether the starting point for the scenario calculations is 1990 or 2000. The main concern is that the emission scenarios should reflect the recent changes in fossil emissions, which show a decreasing trend from 1990 to 1995 in Annex B emissions. Using projected emissions that are incorrect, rather than updating them with observed emissions, is clearly not acceptable. I agree with you that the effects of these emissions on CO2 concentration is minor. However, recent observed emissions will have a major impact on estimates of the cost of CO2 abatement, which depend mainly on cumulative emissions rather than on concentration. It is important, especially in light of Kyoto commitments, not to produce inaccurate emission pathways that overestimate emissions from 1990-2000, since they may be used as baselines for producing cost estimates. Cheers! Atul ========================================================= Date: Thu, 16 Jul 1998 08:19:22 -0700 From: "Pitcher, Hugh M" To: "'jain@uiatma.atmos.uiuc.edu'" , Tom Wigley Cc: Sir John Houghton , Patricia WAGNER , Hugh Pitcher , Robert Watson , Jae Edmonds , Mike Hulme , Fortunat Joos , Richard Richels , Dave Schimel , ssmith@ucar.edu Subject: RE: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios Dear Tom et al In setting up the MiniCAM to do the scenario work for the SRES, we tuned the 2005 energy and hence emissions numbers to reproduce the latest IEA forecast, which explicitly incorporates the slowdown in 1990 to 1995. The only problem here is that informal feedback from within Russia(Igor Bashmakov) suggests the IEA data significantly overstate the reduction in energy use. Our scenarios all go through the short term forecast for 2005 and then diverge onto alternative paths. Getting a good handle on recent historical data and a consistent/reasonable forecast for tuning the short term aspect of the scenarios is going to be increasingly critical as we try to sort out strategies and costs of strategies. This is a separate problem from the long term scenario work, and requires rather different tools. cheers, hugh ========================================================= Date: Fri, 17 Jul 1998 14:27:51 -0600 (MDT) From: Tom Wigley To: "Pitcher, Hugh M" Cc: "'jain@uiatma.atmos.uiuc.edu'" , Sir John Houghton , Patricia WAGNER , Hugh Pitcher , Robert Watson , Jae Edmonds , Mike Hulme , Fortunat Joos , Richard Richels , Dave Schimel , Gregg Marland , ssmith@ucar.edu Subject: RE: IPCC CO2 Emissions Scenarios Dear all, I appreciate the responses regarding my concern about the new 'IPCC' fossil CO2 emissions scenarios. However, no-one seems to be willing to grasp the nettle and suggest what can be done about it. From what Hugh says, all scenarios go through the same 2005 value, so this suggests an obvious 'fix'. (I am curious to know what this 2005 value is, and how close it is to what I used in my Kyoto papers.) Hugh also suggests the 'IPCC' 2005 value may be open to improvement, but I presume it is too late to do this now. So ... what should be done? The obvious solution would be to use Gregg Marland's 'observed' values as far as they go, and then linearly interpolate from his latest year to 2005. When I did my work, I had Gregg's values to 1995, and was able to make a good guess from what he told me about what the 1996 value would be. By now, 1996 should be available, and a good estimate may be possible for 1997. If so, then the linear interpolation would go over 1997 to 2005. Do you all agree with this strategy? ... or does someone have a better idea?? I'm copying this to Gregg to see what more recent data he can provide. Cheers, Tom 3863. 1998-07-21 08:48:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 21 Jul 1998 08:48:46 +0100 from: "Measures, Jane" subject: flyer to: 'Mike Hulme' , 'nassefa' , 'fareed' , 'Ian Househam' Hello Did you receive a fax from me last week checking that I am using the correct names for your organsiation. I will be signing off the artwork today so hope it will be possible for you to confirm or change what I have. Currently it says: BP has produced this disc with advice and guidance from IEA Greenhouse Gas R & D Programme, The Open University, United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, Royal Institute of International Affairs (they will be put into alphabetical order). The final launch flyer will include additional organisations who have not yet particpated but will be. Thanks Jane Jane Measures BP Britannic House Tel. +44 171 496 4924 Fax. +44 171 496 4738 E mail MEASUREJ@BP.COM 1604. 1998-07-21 17:40:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 21 Jul 1998 17:40:38 +0100 (BST) from: Jonathan Gregory subject: derivation of headline results to: scenarios@meto.gov.uk Dear Colleagues I believe that it is important to clarify how the "headline" figures for climate change appearing in the TAR and its summaries should be derived from atmospheric concentrations. The choice of approach will affect the contents of more than one chapter. I am not addressing the difficult issues of emissions scenarios and how they are converted to concentrations, which are also being debated in this email list. I am particularly writing to the proposed LAs of the climate-change and sea-level chapters. One possibility would be to restrict the TAR to assessment of results for climate change and sea-level rise which come from coupled GCMs. This would be a clean and attractive approach if the GCMs involved had all been run with the same concentration scenarios. However, it would not give the complete range of uncertainty because most GCMs are unlikely to have been run with the extreme concentration cases. If it is the assessment of the TAR that the extant GCMs do not cover the complete plausible ranges of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake, those uncertainties would also not be fully represented. Because of these limitations, it is probable that some means will be needed for calculating results for outlying scenarios and sensitivities. In the SAR, simple climate models were used for this. I think the role of simple models in the TAR should be discussed now. Simple models of aspects of the climate system are very useful for investigating and understanding how things work. Such models should, I think, be discussed in the TAR along with the processes they are used to investigate. Simple models of the whole climate system (such as the two used in the SAR) are also useful in their own right for investigating the effect of different concentration scenarios, for instance. However, I think that a question which has to be clearly addressed in the TAR is whether a simple model is in any way scientifically superior to a coupled GCM for doing this job (setting aside the practical issue of whether you can afford to use a GCM). The answer to this question will determine how simple models are presented. Question 1: (a) If GCMs are the principal tools, producing results which are more reliable in detail than those from any simple model, then simple models are needed only as tools for EXTRAPOLATING or INTERPOLATING between GCM results, to estimate the effect of different scenarios or sensitivities. (b) If the assessment is that some simple models offer independent climate predictions to be treated on the same footing as coupled GCMs, then simple models should be discussed at much greater length in the model assessment and model predictions chapters than they were in the SAR. An assessment of all available simple models and their results should be given. My view is (a), which I think is consistent with the IPCC simple models paper. If (a) is the view taken by the authors of the relevant chapters, then I argue that what we are seeking to do the job is a NUMERICAL TOOL. The test of the tool is that it can reliably reproduce the results of several coupled GCMs, both for temperature change and thermal expansion, for different kinds of scenarios (e.g. 1%, historical forcing, stabilisation). This is a stringent requirement. I do not think that a 2D climate model is necessarily preferable to a 1D climate model for this task. In fact, the more elaborate the simple model - the more physics it has got in it - the less amenable it will probably be to being tuned to reproduce GCM results. It is essential that this calibration can be demonstrated to be good, because in view (a) it is the GCMs which are basically providing the results. The tool must not be allowed to go its own way. It is not necessary to interpret the tuning parameters of a simple model in terms of the physics of the real climate system when it is being used for this purpose. It is not necessarily the case that a simple climate model is the best choice anyway. Question 2: If this view is followed, the calibration of the tool will be needed for both the climate-change and sea-level chapters. Where is the best place to put it? (a) It could be in the climate-change chapter, which is earlier, in which case we will have to take care that the climate-change and sea-level chapters fit well together. (b) It could be in the scenarios chapter, which may be dealing with this kind of issue anyway. (c) It could be in an annex or additional "results" chapter, in which case the climate-change and sea-level chapters would present GCM results only. This would have the drawback that the headline results of the TAR would look rather like a footnote in the main text, even though they would feature prominently in the summary. However, that's what was done in the 1992 report. >From the point of view of clarity, I think (c) would be best. It would have to be presented as a main conclusions chapter of the TAR, resting on the GCM results which had earlier been extensively discussed. Question 3: How many such tools are needed i.e. how many simple climate models or equivalent? I think more than one should be investigated, to see how well they fit the GCMs. If they all fit well, and their extrapolations to outlying scenarios agree closely, only one need be presented in the TAR. If there is a range of results, this gives a measure of the additional uncertainty in the procedure of extrapolation, and should be reported. Thanks for reading all this! Jonathan Gregory jmgregory@meto.gov.uk +44 1344 854542 fax +44 1344 854898 Hadley Centre, Met. Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berks., UK. RG12 2SY 1923. 1998-07-22 10:02+0 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 22 Jul 1998 10:02 +0000 (GMT) from: djgriggs@meto.gov.uk subject: TAR emission scenarios to: scenarios@meto.gov.uk begin 600 Emission MT,\1X*&Q&N$`````````````````````.P`#`/[_"0`&```````````````" M````BP``````````$```CP````$```#^____`````(T```",````________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M______________________\`4@`````````````````````````````````` M`````````````````````````````````````````````````@`%`/______ M____`P`````)`@``````P````````$8`````````````````><#-5K6]`08` M``"``@````````$`0P!O`&T`<`!/`&(`:@`````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````2``(!________________ M`````````````````````````````````````````````````````%P````` M````5P!O`'(`9`!$`&\`8P!U`&T`90!N`'0````````````````````````` M`````````````````````````````!H``@'_____!````/____\````````` M```````````````````````````````````````'````A`\!``````!/`&(` M:@!E`&,`=`!0`&\`;P!L```````````````````````````````````````` M````````````````````%@`!`0$````"````_____P`````````````````` M`````````%5I+52UO0$`56DM5+6]`0````````````````,```#]_____?__ M__[____^_____O___P4````(````"0````H````+````=@````T````.```` M#P```!`````1````$@```!,````4````%0```!8````7````&````!D````: M````&P```!P````=````'@```!\````@````(0```"(````C````)````"4` M```F````)P```"@````I````*@```"L````L````+0```"X````O````,``` M`#$````R````,P```#0````U````-@```#<````X````.0```#H````[```` M/````#T````^````/P```$````!!````0@```$,```!$````10```$8```!' 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M`_[8`!#7``4__@``_^#T``$#_M@`$-<`!3_\``'_P/0``0/^V``0UP`%/_P` M`?_`]``!!_[8`!'7``4__``#_\#T``('_X#9`!#7``5_^``#_\#T``$'_]@` M$-<`!?_X``/_P/0``0?_V``0UP`%__```__`]``!#_[8`!#7``1_X``#__,` M`@_^#-D`$-<`!'_@``/_\P`"!_X^V0`0UP`$?^```_[S``('_W_9`!'7``1_ M\``'_/,``P?__X#:`!#7``1_\``'_/,``@___]D`$-<`!'_P``?X\P`"'___ MV0`0UP`$?_``!_CS``(?___9`!#7``1_\``?^/,``C___MD`$-<`!'_P`!_X M\P`"'__\V0`0UP`$?_``'_CS``(?__C9`!#7``1_\``?^/,``A__\-D`$-<` M!/_@`!_X\P`"'__@V0`0UP`$?^``'_CS``(?_^#9`!#7``1_P``_^/,``C__ MX-D`$-<`!/_``#_X\P`"/__@V0`1V``%`?^``#_X\P`"'__@V0`0UP`$?\`` M/_#S``(__^#9`!'8``4$_\``?_#S``(?_\#9`!'8``4$_\``__#S``(?_\#9 M`!#7``1_P`#_X/,``A__@-D`$-<`!'_``__@\P`"'_^`V0`0V``%`?_@`__@ M\P`!'__8`!#8``4!_\`'_^#S``$?_]@`#]<`!/_``?^`\P`!?__8``_7``3_ MP`'_@/,``3__V``/UP`#_X`!__,``@,__M@`#M<``W^``?_R``$__M@`#M<` M`W^``?_R``$__M@`#M<``_^``/_R``%__M@`#M<``_^``/[R``%__M@`#M<` 4414. 1998-07-24 11:42:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 24 Jul 1998 11:42:59 +0200 from: Nebojsa NAKICENOVIC subject: SRES web-site and one emissions scenario to: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk, scenarios@meto.gov.uk Dear Colleagues, I found the discussions concerning scenarios during the "Bad" meeting very useful and would like to use this opportunity to brief you about our work progress on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). During the "Bad" meeting we had a tentative agreement that SRES group will choose three emissions trajectories as possible input for the next climate model runs. The minimum set of emissions we agreed to share are CO2, CH4 and SO2 (anthropogenic sources only). The three emissions trajectories would include a central case, a 550 ppmv stabilization case and a high emissions case leading roughly to a doubling of concentrations. Our plan is to post the initial SRES scenarios (including these three trajectories) on an IPCC web-site in early August. The web-site is being constructed by SIESIN and the address is: http://sres.ciesin.org. Please keep in mind that the site will be available in early August - I will inform you when it is so far. Recently, I talked to John Mitchell concerning these matters and we thought that it might be a good idea that I distribute a kind of informal preview of how these emissions trajectories look like so that you can all have a personal impression. I have decided to distribute only one of these trajectories at this time - the central case - simply labeled B2 marker scenario. Marker denotes that is representative for a group of scenario variants SRES team has considered. Tables are attached in Excel. My colleagues here at IIASA have compiled the tables, they are informal in nature, and the final tables posted on the web-site might include some modification. However, the big picture is not likely to change. There are three tables: First gives global energy-related emissions, second the non-energy and third the total emissions including natural sources (as specified in the table). Emissions trajectories are from two different models from a group of six participating models in SRES work. The SRES site will include results from all other models. A brief description of SRES activities is attached for your information. Naki At 06:14 PM 7/16/98 +0000, mnoguer@meto.gov.uk wrote: >Dear colleagues, > >At the Scoping Meeting for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (BadMunstereifel, 29 >June 1 July, 1998) we agreed to set up an Email address for the modelling >community who are likely to be involved in the Third Assessment Report to >exchange views and co-ordinate their activities. By also including some experts >from WGII and III it will also, hopefully, help to co-ordinate some of the >modelling aspects of the cross-WG issues. When you use the address >scenarios@meto.gov.uk, everybody on this list will receive your Email: > >J Mitchell >J Gregory >J Church >G Boer >G Meehl >R Stouffer >U Cubasch >B McAvaney >P Whetton >H Letreut >A Noda >F Joos >Q-C Zeng >G Russell >T Wigley >S Raper >M Claussen >M Hulme >A Jain >D Schimel >R Richels >H Pitcher >N Nakicenovic >L Mearns >J Houghton >Y Ding >D Griggs >R Moss >R Swart >M Noguer > > >For example, the first issue raised at he Scoping meeting was that of the use of >the draft emission scenarios being prepared for the IPCC Special Report on >Emission Scenarios. The IPCC Bureau discussed this and a letter summarising >their views should be ready to be sent out over this Email list next week. >Another issue which could be address through this list is that of the proposed >Chapter on Climate Change Scenario Development, and the cross-over between WGI >and WGII in this area. This issue is currently under discussion between WG I and >II and when we have further information we will post it here. > >We hope that during the next few weeks a fruitful discussion will develop. > >Regards, > >Dave Griggs and Maria Noguer >IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > begin 600 b2 marker emi.xls MT,\1X*&Q&N$`````````````````````/@`#`/[_"0`&```````````````# M````'P$`````````$```_O___P````#^____`````!P!```=`0``'@$``/__ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M______________________\)"!````8%`-,0S`?)````!@```.$``@"P!,$` M`@```.(```!<`'``!```;F%K:2`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@ M("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@ M("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@("`@($(``@"P!&$!`@`` M`#T!"``!``8``@`#`)P``@`.`!D``@```!(``@```!,``@```*\!`@```+P! 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M@$5`#P`AM/)`#P`!Y,%`#P`1K`%!#P`A:NE`#``#`@X`-@$-``\`BVSG^ZEQ M%$!^`@H`-@$.``\``"*@0+T`,``W`0$`#P``+*!`#P`!`)-`#P`!4)-`#P`! M`!!`#P`!`#C`#P`!@%9`#P`!D'U`!P`#`@X`-P$(``\`@\#*H46VVS^]`!X` M-P$)``\`H=[R0`\``?W!0`\`(;H!00\``*:`0`P``P(.`# M`#@!"0`/``! subject: NERC Thematic bid to: rcpad@wpo.nerc.ac.uk,nth@wpo.nerc.ac.uk,gdw@wpo.nerc.ac.uk, davidw@globatmo.demon.co.uk,njs5@cam.ac.uk,p.j.valdes@reading.ac.uk, jfbmitchell@meto.gov.uk,sfbtett@meto.gov.uk,pmcox@meto.gov.uk, rbattarb@geography.ucl.ac.uk,frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch, j,lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk,g.boulton@ed.ac.uk,plg1@cam.ac.uk, alan@met.rdg.ac.uk,studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk Dear Colleagues please see the attached word document thanks Keith 2100. 1998-07-24 14:30:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 24 Jul 1998 14:30:59 +0100 (BST) from: J Mitchell subject: Re: NERC Thematic bid to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk (Keith Briffa) Hi Kieth Can you send it in ascii? 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AAQAgxAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACQDTAAAHkM6XFdJTldPUkRcVEVNUExBVEVc > TkVXTEVULkRPVAAAAAANSnVsaWUgQnVyZ2Vzcw1KdWxpZSBCdXJnZXNzAAAAAAAAAAAAANDPEeCh > sRrhAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADsAAwD+/wkABgAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAgAAAAEAAAAAAAAAABAAAAIA > AAABAAAA/v///wAAAAAAAAAAfgAAAP////////////////////// > --=====================_901279085==_ > Content-type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > > -- > Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom > Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > --=====================_901279085==_-- > 4501. 1998-07-24 16:48:52 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Jul 24 16:48:52 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: the message I sent earlier- fyio to: jfbmitchell@meto.gov.uk >Return-path: >Envelope-to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Fri, 24 Jul 1998 15:57:18 +0100 >Date: Fri, 24 Jul 1998 15:03:26 BST >From: Julie Burgess >Subject: letter to colleagues >To: "K.R. Briffa" >Priority: Normal >Delivery-Receipt-To: Julie Burgess >Return-Receipt-To: Julie Burgess > >Keith, here is the letter you wanted to forward. >JulieB > >Thursday, 23 July 1998 > >Dear Colleagues > >This note is to let you know that at the behest of NERC >(Rodger Padgham/Neville Hollingworth/Geraint Webber) >we have been asked to have another go at putting together >a bid for a Thematic Programme of Research. This is a >follow up to the previous application to the Earth Science >and Technology Board (ESTB) that attempted, as it turns >out unsuccessfully, to get support for a palaeo/climate-modelling >collaboration. Following a discussion between Geoff Bolton, >John Lowe and Nick Shackleton at Geoscience ‘98 earlier >this year, a decision was made to go for a new proposal but to >direct it, of necessity, equally towards ESTB and the Atmospheric >Science and Technology Board (ASTB). It has been emphasised >by NERC that Climate Change is still very much on the NERC >agenda and they endorse (indeed they recommend) the joint >board approach. > >I have been asked to organise the drafting of the new proposal. >At an initial meeting of a small palaeoclimate working group, held >at NERC headquarters in London on 17th June, the reasons for the >failure of the previous bid were discussed and I consider it imperative >at this juncture to pass on the following information regarding the >previous thematic application: > > ... the proposal lacked a significant novel component. In attempting to > interface the geological climate record with the modelling activities of the > atmospheric community, it would be necessary to establish the historical > data requirements needed to validate and populate the current and > proposed new climate prediction models. The geological record is > essential to exploring timescales and changes from non-linear (but > predictable) to chaotic climatic conditions. > >These comments were apparently agreed by ESTB members. NERC has >also indicated that > > “the key drivers of climate research will probably arise from the Kyoto > summit and include carbon budgets, regional climate prediction, > biogeochemical cycles, with the palaeoclimate record per se probably > lower down the list of priorities. Linking the ancient record to the modelling > criteria will therefore be essential.” > >I reproduce these comments here to emphasise that if the reworked >proposal is to gain NERC support, it will require a clear ‘novel’ component >and a focus on the types of model being used now and that will be used >in the future to explore (anthropogenic) climate change detection and >future climate scenarios. > >At a subsequent, brief meeting attended by myself, Paul Valdes and >Nick Shackleton in Cambridge, we decided that the novel component >of a new proposal could best be represented by building it around the >Hadley Centre Aims and the Unified Model. Paul and I then met at >Bracknell with John Mitchell, Simon Tett and Peter Cox to discuss the >Hadley Centre interest and to decide whether true mutual benefit was >achievable under this scenario. I am pleased to report that the suggestion >was enthusiastically endorsed by them and we have moved on to plan an >initial proposal drafting along these lines. > >The purpose of this note is to inform you and, through you, the wider >palaeoclimate community of this effort and to assure you that your full >participation in this effort is requested. For practical reasons only, a >small drafting team was suggested at our original London meeting. >This is made up of, along with myself, Paul Valdes (Reading), John >Lowe (RHUL), Nick Shackleton (Cambridge), Alan O’Niell (Reading), >Phil Gibbard (Cambridge), and Rick Battarbee (UCL). These are >supplemented with Simon Tett and Peter Cox (Hadley Centre). When >we have something on paper, the intention is to solicit comments from >a wider ‘consultative team’ made up of David Warrilow (DETR), Geoff >Bolton (Edinburgh), David Peel (BAS), Sandy Tudhope (Edinburgh) >and Frank Oldfield (PAGES) and others. > >At this point, it would not be productive to go into greater detail about >the logic and discussions that occurred at the various meetings, other >than to say that there was a concensus that there must be a clear >focus on ‘state of the art’ modelling and the palaeowork envisaged >must be justified within the context of this (and future) climate modelling. > >Note that we are heading for a submission by the end of October! >This information should hopefully get some sort of common discussion >going. I will get back to everyone in due course. > >Best wishes > >Keith Briffa > > > > > >********************************************************************* >Message from: > >J. Burgess - Any views expressed are my own - >Climatic Research Unit - and not of the department or - >University of East Anglia - institution for which I work. - >Norwich NR4 7TJ >United Kingdom > >Tel. +44 1603 592722 >Fax. +44 1603 507784 >email. j.burgess@uea.ac.uk >Climatic Research Unit web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ > > > 2027. 1998-07-24 17:42:05 ______________________________________________________ cc: ssmith@ucar.edu date: Fri, 24 Jul 1998 17:42:05 +0100 from: Sarah Raper subject: naki's emissions data to: scenarios@meto.gov.uk Dear all, The emissions data sent out by Naki seem to me to be deficient for a number of reasons ... (1) CO2 emissions need to be split into fossil and net deforestation in order to do carbon cycle modeling. (2) My crucial point about consistency with 'observed' emissions has been ignored. (3) CH4 emissions in 1990 are grossly out of budget balance - even worse that in the IS92 scenarios. (4) 1990 SOx emissions are too low compared with Steve Smith's corrected GEAI data. (5) Global SOx emissions are useless -- it is essential to have a global GRIDDED data set. This is what we have done at NCAR. We are willing to make these data sets available to modelers. In addition, there were some scientific flaws in the letter from Watson et al. For example (read the SAR!) it is not possible (and not necessary!!) to devise a CO2 emissions scenarios from first principles that will stabilize CO2 concentrations. The E-C link depends on the carbon cycle model used -- and I do not believe that all of the emissions generating groups have the same model (or that they have the Joos model in particular). What we did in the SAR is start with the CONCENTRATION profile and derive the emissions, which requires specifying a particular net deforestation scenario. It is possible to do a similar inverse calculation to what was done for the SAR with an energy-economics model -- this is what Steve Smith has done to derive 'our' stabilization cases. I doubt that anyone else has done this -- but perhaps I am underestimating people. Even if I am underestimating people, I can't see how anyone can have done this properly, since no-one has updated concentration stabilization profiles (i.e., profiles that are consistent with observations through the 1990s). Again, I've made the offer to distribute these already. As a final painfully obvious point, modelers DO NOT NEED CO2 emissions data for a stabilization case, since we already have the concentrations! It is the concentrations that go into the model!! The reason why an energy-economics model is needed in such a case is in order to get consistent emissions for non-CO2 gases, especially SO2. You might guess from the above that I was very disappointed by the material distributed by Naki. Please think about the points made above and try again. This is really important data and 'we' can't afford to have it open to the elementary types of criticisms raised here. Constructively (albiet bluntly) yours, Tom Wigley. --------------------------- | Dr S. C. B. Raper | | Climatic Research Unit | | University of East Anglia | | Norwich | | NR4 7TJ | | | | Tel. +44 1603 592089 | | Fax +44 1603 507784 | --------------------------- 492. 1998-07-25 13:50:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 25 Jul 1998 13:50:58 -0400 from: Richard Goldberg subject: GCM WWW site to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike: Here are a few more questions/ comments about down-loading the GCM data from the WWW. It is Saturday. I was able to download files quickly from 7am- 11 am New York time, but unlike last week, I was unable to download any more files after that (11am - 1:30 pm NY time). It kept getting stuck in certain places. There appears to be an error in the CCCM data. The precipitation values are very small (.1E-5 for example). This cant be. The Solar radiation values also look funny. They continually decrease, instead of decreasing towards the poles. (Unless maybe I have done something wrong?) It would be helpful to include a note saying what the difference is between the average temperature and just taking (tmax+tmin) / 2. I was just re-reading some of the notes on using HADCM2 Results (the document that you gave us in February of 1997.) Many of the suggestions in there about how to form the climate change scenarios are very different than the way that we have normally done things. we usually use a 100 year control run as the base and ten years of data to represent the altered green-house gas decades. We use differences for temperature and ratios for precipitation and solar radiation. So, in line with this, let me see if I understand your methodology completely. Your suggestion for creating the GCM climate change scenarios on the Web is to use differences only, thirty year slices of data at a time, both for the control and altered data. So in order to get the climate changes for the 2020s for example, I have to average the 3 decades (2010-2039) of the increased green-house run and compare that to 1961-1990 of the control run. Is that correct? Is there any way that I can obtain a sample value or two from the scenarios to check to make sure that in the proccess of downloading and manipulating the data I have not mangled any of the results? As far as maps are concerned, we usually are primarily interested in annual changes in the various variables, over the world, for each scenario. The maps that we make are usually in color, (and sometimes black&white) Sometimes we use maps of specific continents only. Uusually annual temperature,precip, and solar radiation change. Yours truly, Richie Goldberg 683. 1998-07-28 15:53:30 ______________________________________________________ cc: tony.mcmichael@lshtm.ac.uk date: Tue, 28 Jul 1998 15:53:30 +0000 from: Sari Kovats subject: infectious disease, climate change and grant proposal to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk >1. Yes, put me down as a named collaborator. We have a variety of >observed datasets that would probably be relevant and obviously the sort of >expertise you need in interpreting such data. Do you need anything from me >at this point? Dear Dr Hulme, Thanks very much for your positive response about our Wellcome proposal. Attached is the scientific outline of the preliminary proposal which has been submitted to the Wellcome - we hope to hear within a few weeks whether this fits their funding criteria. If so, we would very much appreciate your help with the full grant proposal. In Europe, the majority of infections are food or water-related. We are hoping to find some evidence of climate change in the seasonality of these diseases. Small shifts in the incidence of very common diseases have an important public health impact - although these do not receive much attention. The impact of climate change would be primarily due to warming/temperature trends. Precipitation mechanisms are more complicated - I will discuss these in a later email. The type of data used to produce the map of annual trends in the past century would be useful (Figure A-2 in the IPCC Regional Report). Thus, initial data requirements are as follows but we look forward to your advice. - monthly temperature and precipitation data series (possible weekly, if this is available) - time period 1982 to 1997 - geographic resolution at least subnational. 1x1 deg should be sufficient. - selected countries in Europe (e.g. UK, + one country in north/Scandinavia, one in souther, e.g. Spain, Greece, and one in central, e.g. Germany). I should also mention that Tony and I are also interested in related projects looking at vector borne disease patterns outside Europe. We would be interested in the historical data which you have for Africa, South America, and (South and East) Asia. I look forward to hearing from you. Best regards Sari Kovats ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sari Kovats Research Fellow Epidemiology Unit Department of Epidemiology & Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel St London WC1E 7HT UK Tel: +44 (0)171 927 2078 Fax: +44 (0)171 580 6897 email: s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\inf_W.doc" 529. 1998-07-30 10:14:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 30 Jul 1998 10:14:35 +0000 from: Sari Kovats subject: Re: infectious disease, climate change to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Mike, I am sorry about this -- the document is now pasted in below. Sari *************WELLCOME PROPOSAL********************** 1. Applicant: Anthony J McMichael Co-applicant: Rosalind Stanwell-Smith (CDSC) Co-applicant: Laura Rodrigues (LSHTM) 2. Institution: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT. Source of institution's core funding: Higher Education Funding Council 3. Scientific Outline Proposed start date: March 1999 Period requested: 24 months Title: Assessment of the impact of recent climate change and climate variability on selected infectious diseases in Europe Aims of the project (hypothesis to be tested and experimental objectives): · Hypothesis: Changes in climate over the past two decades have affected the transmission, seasonality, or range of certain infectious diseases in Western Europe. · Main objective: Given that changes in climate within Europe have occurred over the past two decades (with documented regional differences), to determine if there have been accompanying changes in selected infectious diseases (e.g. water- and food-borne infections, including Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium). Two closely-related objectives are: a) to further develop research methods to detect and characterise the impact of climate/weather on selected non-vector-borne infectious diseases in Europe; and b) in light of this research, and recent moves by European agencies to initiate surveillance of the potential health impacts of long-term climate change, to make appropriate recommendations. Work which has led up to the project: Prof. McMichael has played a leading role internationally in defining and developing the research strategies applicable to the assessment of current and future health impacts of climate change. Since 1993, he has chaired the scientific panel assessing this topic for the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He has investigated the relationship between climate and malaria outbreaks in West Rajasthan, and, in a preliminary analysis with Dr Rodrigues, between weather events and cryptosporidiosis cases in the UK. Dr Rodrigues has extensive experience in developing research methods in the study of infectious diseases, and, in particular, food-borne and water-related diarrhoea in England. Dr Stanwell-Smith is an expert on surveillance data and has a particular interest in the surveillance of water-related diseases; she and Prof. McMichael are members of a recently-commissioned WHO Working Group on the early detection of health impacts of climate change in Europe. Experimental design and methods to be used in investigating the problem: Global climate change (for which climate scientists have now adduced "discernible evidence") is a prime manifestation of world population growth, urbanisation, and increasing economic activity. Climate conditions and weather variations are important in the transmission of certain infectious diseases, and changes in climate can affect the seasonality and range of such diseases. This study will use recent and ongoing infectious disease surveillance data to describe climate/health relationships and determine if these have been affected by recent changes in climate within Europe. From existing knowledge of how climatic factors (e.g. temperature) affect transmission, the potential future impacts of climate change on various tropical vector-borne disease patterns have been modelled by scientists elsewhere. However, there is a dearth of empirical evidence, particularly in temperate-zone countries, of how medium-term changes in climate might actually have begun to affect patterns of infection. Design: The composite study will examine relationships between climate factors and infectious disease in the UK and other countries throughout Europe, including Scandinavia. Countries will be selected by the availability of data as well as to maximize contrasts in climates and rates of warming. Time series data of infectious disease cases will be obtained from national disease surveillance centres and regional networks. Appropriate geographical and temporal resolution will be used to aggregate data and link the datasets. Climate data will be obtained from the internationally prominent Climatic Research Unit, Univ. of East Anglia (Dr M Hulme). Observed warming and associated ecological impacts have been greatest at high latitudes, including Europe. Rainfall has increased at higher latitudes and spring is arriving earlier in Europe. Since climate change impacts would amplify, or add to, other ongoing trends that arise out of changes in human ecology and social behaviour, information will be obtained on confounding and interacting factors. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sari Kovats Research Fellow Epidemiology Unit Department of Epidemiology & Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel St London WC1E 7HT UK Tel: +44 (0)171 927 2078 Fax: +44 (0)171 580 6897 email: s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 3446. 1998-07-30 16:34:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme), tim.carter@fmi.fi (Tim Carter) date: Thu, 30 Jul 1998 16:34:32 -0600 (MDT) from: Linda Mearns subject: Re: Future of Chapter 13 to: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk > >After some conversations with our co-chairs regarding the contents of Chapter 13 >and where should it go, the following opinion was reached: > >They would like to see a very short Chapter on the assessment of Scenario >Development (5 to 7 pages). According to them, the Chapter outline presented in >BadMustereifel is still a review and not an Assessment. They argue that, in the >same way as IPCC does not review the development of Climate Models, it should >not review the development of climate change scenarios. It should, on the other >hand, asses the utility of these scenarios concentrating on signal to noise, >errors, uncertainties,... They would like to see a modified outline that would >comply with the comments raised. It would be great if you could send me the >"modified" outline as soon as possible so that we can start the process. What comments raised? I don't see any comments raised except their saying that it is a review and not an assessment. We went over this several times in B. M. and the outline was modified to remove review segments and keep only assessment segments. If it is now again felt that this is not an assessment, then we need further clarification about the difference between an assessment and a review. Moreover, given that this entire topic has really not been addressed in the FAR or SAR, I would recommend that the co-chairs reconsider the desirability for some basic background material to be included, if this is what is considered objectionable in the outline. All other subjects have inherent back ground by the very continuation of the topics through the three assessment reports. The topic of climate change scenario development does not have this, even though this topic could have (and some might argue should have been) included in the earllier reports. I have just wandered through various segments of the FAR and SAR, and in point of fact, back ground material is indeed included in some chapters. However, there is not much point in providing extended justifications here without our all working with a clear, operational definition of an assessment versus a review versus providing back ground material. Kind Regards, Linda > >The outline that was presented in BadMustereifel was: > >13 Climate Change Scenario Development > >13.1 Introduction, definition, context > 13.1.2 Impact needs driven > 13.1.2 Need for scenarios > >13.2 Evaluation of evolution of methods > 13.2.1 Sensitivity Analyses > 13.2.2 Analogue approaches > 13.2.3 Equilibrium experiments > 13.2.4 Transients experiments > 13.2.5 Simple models - Integrated models > >13.3 Spatial Resolution > 13.3.1 Need for varying resolution - levels of aggregation > 13.3.2 Downscaling > >13.4 Temporal Resolution - Variability > 14.4.1 High frequency > 13.4.2 Low frequency - decadal to century > 13.4.3 Extreme events > >13.5 Baseline climatologies > >13.6 Inclusion of transience > 13.6.1 Scaling of AOGCMs results > 13.6.2 Effect of control run variability > 13.6.3 Integrated Assessments models > >13.7 Consistency of scenario components > >13.8 Measures of uncertainty > 13.8.1 Signal to noise in changes in climate variables > 13.8.2 Annotation of scenarios - control run errors - validation for impact >use > 13.8.3 Range of scenarios - range of forcing > > > >I am sure this will raised lots of comments from all of you...... > >Regards, > >Maria > > > > >************************************************* > Dr. Maria Noguer  > IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit  > Hadley Centre   > Met Office  > London Road  > Bracknell > Berks, RG12 2SY > UK > > Tel: +44 (0) 1344 854938 > Fax: +44 (0) 1344 856912  > Email: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk   >************************************************ > > > > > > > -- ****************************************************************************** Quote of the week: ``Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggy" until you can find a rock'' Dr. Linda O. Mearns Phone: 303 497 8124 Scientist Fax: 303 497 8125 Environmental and Societal Impacts Group e-mail: lindam@ucar.edu NCAR P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307 3218. 1998-08-05 11:39:35 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Mike Hulme (E-mail)" , "'GJJenkins@meto.gov.uk'" date: Wed, 5 Aug 1998 11:39:35 +0100 from: Merylyn McKenzie-Hedger subject: US National Climate Assessment-ideas for UKCIP? to: Tom Downing , Megan Gawith , John Orr , "Tim Denne (ERM)" When I was in Washington for the IPCC meeting on tech transfer (on my leave), I called into the USGCRP office (location of the IPCC TSU) and talked with Mike McCracken of the US National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Change. Their program is making rapid strides with a series of 20 regional workshops almost completed for the entire country- each sponsored by various government agencies and departments from EPA, DOI, DOE, USFA, USDA to NOAA and NASA. They also have 5 sectoral teams covering agriculture, forests, coastal zones, human health and water preparing national assessments. They are due to report to Congress next April and are also driven by what is the obvious- the US Country Studies Programme has meant that more is known about impacts in developing countries than the US (and indeed other Annex 1 countries.......). I was given a set of very useful documents which I am sending round. Their deliberations on strategy, approaches to climate scenarios and socio-economic scenarios have mirrored ours but they have produced different outcomes. Basically they are less worried about methodology, integration,coherent structure and precedents and more concerned to get things moving.(This may lead to problems down the line when they try and put reports together although a data management group has produced guidelines and templates for studies.) Their approach can be characterised as an informal, CCIRG type exercise undertaken at a regional level by stakeholders, led by a local university, and driven from a policy and communications perspective. They have an on-going time frame and will prepare synthesis reports as when required using what information is available at that time. I urge you to read the documents as they provide a stimulating experience. Their approach seems to be useful for us particularly in respect of the following: 1) Greater involvement of government agencies across the board ( I have already raised this with DETR and hopefully this could lead to an autumn meeting of Governmental Departments). But that doesn't meant the agencies control the process- they are activating a nation-wide process. It is viewed as a 'pioneering exercise in environmental policy with a three way engagement among scientists, policy-makers and stakeholders'. 2) Climate scenarios etc- a)they are using a historical climatology of the US since 1850 to examine the potential consequences of continuation of past climatic trends and future occurrence of past climatic variations; b ) AOGCM simulations: They have decided to use the Canadian model because it has daily data, and are distributing data in ASCII and ARC/Info GIS format . c) Development of regional scenarios by regional teams either by downscaling or nested GCMs and also development of 'what if' scenarios to cover specific vulnerabilities. (The question of archiving data sets and providing user support has only just been raised on the climate scenarios.) 3) They are trying to get 'stories' developed for different areas around the main priority issues and key findings to attract public interest. Some ideas already have been developed for some areas, more were due to be developed at a mega workshop 2 weeks ago (National Assessment Workshop in Monterey, CA ). 4) Their approach to regional workshops is interesting as they have got wide stakeholder buy-in. They tackle them as brainstorming sessions which generate lots of issues to study. They use national (Gore) and 'local' politicians Follow-ups are then focused on 2-3 issues. All the workshops have addressed 3 questions: a) What other environmental issues are you facing? b) How will climate change amplify/ modify/ ameliorate these issues and produce new stresses? c) Information needs, d) Win-win solutions. 5) On socio-economic scenarios they developed a very pragmatic but effective approach suggesting that studies handling impacts cover two types of variables: impact and context with a high and low range in each case (2 x 2). The selection of these variables would be carried out depending on the study. As a separate complementary exercise, ORNL has been asked to generate background data on population, landuse and other trends on a high-low range of confidence to provide an overall context on a future world. Read the detail yourselves- it is quite robust and I solves most of the problems we have encountered, in my view. 6) They seem to have got the US business community involved at a regional level rather more successfully than we have so far which is counter-intuitive. They play a greater stress on climate variability, emphasise the exercise has nothing to do with Kyoto and that there is a need to cope with the climate change which is occurring. 592. 1998-08-06 08:28:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 06 Aug 1998 08:28:53 +0100 from: Karen Campbell subject: NERC research grant application Briffa/Jones/Osborn to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Improving our understanding of natural climate cariability by the combined use of observational, palaeo and GCM climate data: A step towards anthropogenic climate change detection. Re the above, in section 18b of the application, you answered NO to does the period of your current post exceed the end date of the proposal? We were actually looking for a YES answer! Is it possible to have some kind of written confirmation from the University that you will still be employed in some capacity by them and also confirmation that you are able to use their facilites etc to complete the research grant, I.e. be fully responsibile by the University? I would appreciate an early reply. Many thanks Karen Campbell Awards & Training Section NERC Polaris House North Star Avenue Swindon Wilts SN2 1QE. 4737. 1998-08-13 17:08:04 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 13 Aug 1998 17:08:04 +0100 () from: Andy Baker subject: stalagmite and tree ring high resolution holocene palaeoclimate to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, You may remember that we met and spoke some years ago at the NERC Town Meeting on Palaeoclimate, where I was advocating the posibilities of high resolution stalagmite records from luminescence variations. You expressed some interest at the time in doing some collaborative work. Of course that was about 4 years ago now! I am now nearing the end of a 2 year NERC funded project to investigate the potential of stalagmite luminescence laminations as a palaeoclimate proxy. We have at present a 1000 year continuous annual record from NW Scotland, which demonstrates good correlations with both historical climate data and other expected longer term trends (e.g double Little Ice Age). We are hoping to get an extension to extend this record back to 4000 years (we have three triplicate stals, but not the man-time!). Would you be interested in some joint work. For our 1000 year record, annual stalagmite growth rate seems to be a complex proxy of T/Pptn (based on calibration against the historical record) and is the weakest of our proxies. Winter band structure gives a good record of winter storminess and is much clearer as a proxy. Do you have / know of any tree ring records that could be useful? Our stals are from Inchnadamph, Assynt, NW Scotland (nearest met. station - Stornoway). Given the uniqueness of the regions rainfall record compared to the rest of the UK/Ireland, and the fact that we seem to be getting a winter rainfall signal, suggests (at least to me as a non-expert) that comparison to tree-ring records from outside the region may not be too useful. But if you have records from the region, then we may be able to construct a better palaeoclimate proxy using the two records together?? Please let me know if you would be interested in pursuing this further. Yours Andy ps If replying after 1.9.98, I will be at Newcastle University, so please mail me there. Should be something obvious - try andy.baker@ncl.ac.uk or a.baker@ncl.ac.uk pps have greatly enjoyed your recent publications, and would value any offprints if you have spares. ---------------------- Andy Baker University of Exeter 2451. 1998-08-19 13:20:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 19 Aug 1998 13:20:59 +0100 from: merylyn hedger subject: UKCIP Summary report: possible revisions to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, Take a deep breath. I enclose Tom's comments. I suggest that: a) You think whether they have merit and if whether you can accommodate his ideas, logistically. b) I have told him that I am not convinced his proposals add a great deal and that basically the report is yours. I realise this must not be altogether welcome and I apologise for UKCIP's seeming incoherence (for which I take responsibility). Please reply by email to this address today, and then we can speak if necessary. I am in and out of various (routine) medical appointments today, back in Oxford tomorrow. Merylyn (The earlier email he refers to is the one sent yesterday). --------------------------------------------------------------------- >From TED. Merylyn: Herein some thoughts... Comments on scenarios summary document My concerns with this summary are: 1. It needs a few technical details added in to make sure the choice of scenarios is clear. These are fairly minor additions suggested in an earlier email. 2. The distinction between scenario and forecast recurs in too many places, as noted in my earlier email. I suggest the first para under More Detail should begin with "We show more details..." Make sure the qualifications and notes on probabilities are covered in the concluding section on uncertainty. 3. Most importantly, the document fails to deliver a clear message. However, there is some important news: the use of a range of scenarios instead of one (eg CCIRG), more information now available (eg HADCM2), CD-Rom oriented toward users, statements on extreme events, particularly heat waves, others? Can we bring the significant conclusions to the fore? Note that there is no conclusion section. Some ideas follow. We could move preface to inside front cover. That would give us a full page of summary and contents at the front (ie right-hand page). The reader would automatically focus on this page as the most significant. Or do away with the preface and begin the "Summary and Contents" below with a short paragraph: This summary of a Technical Report presents new scenarios of how the climate of the UK may change over the next 100 years. The scenarios, called the UKCIP98 scenarios, have been prepared for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The range of possible future climates will assist stakeholders to carry out integrated assessments of climate change impacts and responses. [I don't think we need to call this introduction a preface, or to have is "signed".] Then expand contents page: Summary and Contents Scenarios of climate change are fundamental aspects of impact assessments. The UKCIP presents four scenarios that span a range of possible future climates. These should be used to evaluate the sensitivity of sectoral and regional impacts to climate change. See pages 2-4. Trends in the UK climate confirm a warming of 0.5 0 in the 20th Century, with a marked decrease in the number of cold days. Trends in precipitation and gales are less clear. See pages 4-5. The four scenarios span a range of global average warming of 0.1 - 0.3 0 per decade, with concurrent increases in sea level and carbon dioxide concentrations. See pages 5-6. Warming in the UK will be similar to the global average, with more rapid warming in the southeast compared to the northwest. Precipitation changes are less consistent than for temperature and are fairly modest on average until later in the 21st Century. See pages 6-9. Additional climatic variables are available for the Medium-high scenario-including climatic variability and extreme events. Changes in variability and extremes are likely to be more important for many impacts than changes in average climate. See pages 9-11. These national climate scenarios may need to be supplemented with more detailed regional scenarios, using a regional climate model or statistical downscaling techniques. See pages 11-12. The scenarios enable evaluation of the magnitude of climate change compared to natural climate variations. Other climate scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change can be compared to the UKCIP98 scenarios. And, major uncertainties remain, including the potential for rapid climate change, future emission profiles and the climate sensitivity. See pages 12-14. A technical report, a CD-Rom of the UKCIP98 scenarios, and further information are available from the UK Climate Impacts Programme and the Climate Impacts LINK Project. See page 15. NB: Put Figures 6 and 7 on facing pages. This will change the page numbering above. Tom -- merylyn hedger 1549. 1998-08-24 09:59:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 24 Aug 1998 09:59:10 +0100 from: David Viner subject: Fwd: Re: USGCRP Study to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk >Envelope-to: f046@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >From: Linda Mearns >Subject: Re: USGCRP Study >To: d.viner@uea.ac.uk (David Viner) >Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 13:48:37 -0600 (MDT) >MIME-Version: 1.0 >Status: > >David, >> >>We are curious over here as to why the USGCRP National Assessment has opted >>for using CCCMA as their prime model. We have a document that says that >>daily data is not available from the numerous runs performed with HadCM2 >>(which is not correct). >Good question. I'd be interested in knowing what document you have that >states this (about the daily data). This, however, is consistent with the >information I received from Mike McCracken, head of the USGCRP (that >daily data were not readily available from the HADCM2) > >>Would it be possible for you to shed some light on this issue? > >I can shed little additional light. You might try asking Dave Schimel >(at NCAR - his e-mail is probably schimel@ucar.edu - I can't look it >up at the moment since I only have one window on my lap top when connected >to the NCAR system). He is in charge of climate change scenarios. > >The decision certainly wasn't made based on quality of control runs. >>From what we have analyzed the control runs are either pretty close, >or HADCM2 does a bit better - of course its resolution is a bit better. > >Many decisions made in this US assessment business are very mysterious. >One of the reasons I am comparing the CCCMA with the HADCM2 is so that >users of the output can have some comparativer results. >I haven't exactly been encouraged to do this. But luckily I have >a good deal of control over what we do. But our timeline is very short. > >Let me know what you find out from Schimel - his anser will surely be >interesting. > >Cheers, >Linda > > >-- > > >****************************************************************************** > Dr. Linda O. Mearns Phone: 303 497 8124 > Scientist Fax: 303 497 8125 > Environmental and Societal Impacts Group e-mail: lindam@ucar.edu > NCAR P.O. Box 3000 > Boulder, CO 80307 > #-------------------------------------------- # Dr. David Viner # Climate Impacts LINK Project # Climatic Research Unit # University of East Anglia # Norwich NR4 7TJ # UK # mailto://d.viner@uea.ac.uk # WWW: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link # WWW: http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk # Tel: +44 (0)1603 592089 # Fax: +44 (0)1603 507784 #--------------------------------------------- 4575. 1998-08-26 17:25:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 26 Aug 1998 17:25:39 -0600 (MDT) from: Linda Mearns subject: Chap. 13 - Final I hope to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) Mike, Below is what I sent as our final chapter. I also included this little intro paragraph on things. I hope it is acceptable this time. By the way, any info from Schimel regarding the US Assessment climate models? Cheers, Linda Below is the new outline fo the chapter on climate change scenario development. In preparing the new (and it is hoped, final) chapter outline, we considered material prepared in other outlines for comparison. We examined other chapter outlines for TAR for WGI and II and find that the content of our outline is in keeping with the basic stucture and breadth of material covered in other chapters. There remains, however, the issue of the fact that THIS SUBJECT HAS NOT BEEN COVERED IN EARLIER ASSESSMENTS. In going over chapters in all three Working Groups from the second assessment and from the chapter outlines for TAR, it is very clear that the point of departure for `assessment' is meant research that has appeared since the last assessment, and thus was not covered in the earlier assessments. It is important to note that this point of departure does not exist for the topic of climate change scenario development. We note that this truly does blur the distinction between a `review' and an `assessment' in this case. For example, consider the problem climate modelers would have in constructing and writing the current chapter 9 in WGI, if the topic of climate models and climate model projections had not been covered in SAR and FAR. We hope that the co-chairs of WGI will recognize and give due consideration to the unique aspects of this chapter. It cannot conform completely to expectations developed in the context of other chapters that cover material already examined in earlier assessments. Another issue that must be considered in viewing this outline is the fact that where simple climate model results are to be primarily discussed has not been determined. If it is decided that this discussion should reside in chapter 13, then, our outline will have to be expanded and the length of the chapter increased. This simple model discussion may also affect the choice of an additional lead author. We already have a total of five lead authors for a rather short chapter. We feel this is probably sufficient if the main discussion of simple models resides elsewhere. Final Draft Revised 8/26/98 IPCC WGI Chapter 13 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT L. O. Mearns (USA) and M. Hulme (UK), convening lead authors; T. Carter (Finland), M. Lal (India), R. Leemans (Netherlands), confirmed lead authors; B. Pittock (or Roger Jones) (Australia), possible additional lead author, or a climate modeler (G. Boer or J. Mitchell?) Contributors: (suggested) P. Whetton (Australia), Demetrious Gyalistras (Switzerland), M. Semenov (UK), Namasova (Chech Republic), R. Katz (USA) D. Wilks (USA), T. Kittel (USA), J. Mitchell (UK), G. Boer (Canada), Rob Wilby (USA/UK?) OUTLINE 13.1 Introduction 13.1.1 Definition of climate change scenario - distinction between climate change projections and scenarios 13.1.2 Need for scenarios -- impacts needs driven - specifically what information is needed by impacts researchers 13.1.3 Background on scenario use in quantitative climate impacts (Estimated Length - 1 page) 13.2 Sources of information on climate change for scenario development (This will be an assessment of the adequacy of these various sources. Most of them are still used or have been recently used (past 5 years)). 13.2.1. Sensitivity analysis 13.2.2. Analogue approaches 13.2.2.1. Historical 13.2.2.2 Paeleoclimate 13.2.3. Equilibrium GCM integrations 13.2.4. Transient integrations 13.2.5. Simple models - from integrated assessment models (Estimated Length - 1 page) 13.3 Baseline Climatologies - assessment of the effect on scenario formation 13.3.1. Historical period - effect of its variability on scenario formed 13.3.2. Resolution in time and space - density of station network - adequacy for regional representation 13.3.3 Deltas versus ratios (i.e., taking differences perturbed minus control, versus taking ratio of perturbed to control) (Estimated Length - 1/2 page) 13.4 Incorporation of Spatial and Temporal Resolution 13.4.1. Spatial - need for varying spatial scales (levels of aggregation), depending upon impacts type -- downscaling -- specific needs for use in impacts assessment - issues of spatial correlation and intercorrelation of variables 13.4.1.1 Dynamical downscaling -- increasing GCM resolution, stretched grids, nested regional models 13.4.1.2. Empirical Statistical Downscaling Methods (Note: coordination with chapter 10 is necessary here). 13.4.2 Temporal Resolution (assessment of mean versus variance changes in scenarios) 13.4.2.1. Incorporation of mean changes - the traditional, most commonly used scenario formation method - assessment of adequacy for representing climate change - 13.4.2.2. High frequency variability and extremes - daily to interannual 13.4.2.3. Low frequency -- decadal to century (Estimated Length 2 pages) 13.6 Measures of Uncertainty 13.6.1. Use of multiple GCM results to provide ranges of climate change scenarios, and to show climate change response to range of emission scenarios 13.6.2. Signal to noise in changes in climate variables and scaling of A/O GCMS 13.6.3 Effect of control run variability 13.6.4. Annotation of scenarios - effect of control run errors - climate model validation for impacts purposes (Estimated Length - 2 pages) 13.7 Consistency Among Scenario Components -- (Will assess how successfully scenarios maintain internal consistency of individual components, and issues of inconsistencies arising from taking only certain variables from climate models, and calculating others offline.) 13.7.1 Consistency of Sea Level Rise, Climate, and Direct CO2 Effects 13.7.2 Relationship between off-line vegetation/hydrology impacts calculations and vegetation/hydrology models coupled interactively into climate models, (i.e., assessment of direct use of climate model output) (coordination with material in WGII). (Estimated Length - 2/3 page) TOTAL LENGTH - a little over 7 pages. COORDINATION ISSUES - UNRESOLVED ISSUES WG I - Chap 10 -- Regional Analysis - technical downscaling, weather generators, regional validation, regional models WG I - Chap 9 - Climate Model Projections -- Where will simple model results go (primarily)? Where will the scenario ranges come from -- simple models, AOGCMs, combination of both? WG II - Chap 3 - Scenarios - how much detail about climate change scenarios will be in here? What discussion of the TGCIA scenarios will be in here? WG II - ? - Vegetation/hydrology models incorporated in GCMs WG III - Chap on emissions scenarios - relates to our uncertainty section Coordination with following individuals related to above issues: N. Nakicenovic, J. Mitchell, T. Carter, M. Hulme, L. Mearns, R. Leemans, F. Giorgi, H. Von Storch. END -- ****************************************************************************** Dr. Linda O. Mearns Phone: 303 497 8124 Scientist Fax: 303 497 8125 Environmental and Societal Impacts Group e-mail: lindam@ucar.edu NCAR P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307 4491. 1998-08-28 17:29:45 ______________________________________________________ cc: pmcox@meto.gov.uk, p.j.valdes@reading.ac.uk, jfbmitchell@meto.gov.uk, sfbtett@meto.gov.uk date: Fri, 28 Aug 1998 17:29:45 +0100 from: Peter Cox subject: Re: writing Thematic proposal to: Keith Briffa Keith, I attach a draft of the model description/development section of the NERC Thematic proposal which I produced by editing Simon's contribution and adding some bits on the carbon cycle. Let me know if you need anything else. Cheers Peter Believable predictions of climate change require models which both reproduce the current climate and its variability, and also respond realistically to previous climatic forcings (e.g. well documented changes in CO2 and solar insolation). The model development programme at the Hadley Centre mirrors these goals, in aiming to improve the representation of the processes already included in GCM's, and also to incorporate new processes and related feedbacks which may be relevant to future (and indeed past) climatic changes. On both counts, the third generation Hadley Centre coupled climate model, HadCM3, must be considered a significant advance over its predecessor. HadCM3 (Gordon et al,?) was successfully developed to remove the need for ocean flux-corrections and multi-century integrations have already been completed which show minimal climate drift. A suite of improvements were made to both the ocean and atmosphere components of the GCM. The ocean model resolution was increased to 1.25 degrees by 1.25 degrees (from 3.25 by 2.5 degrees) and this along with new parametrisations of mixing processes (due to Gent and McWilliams,? and Visbeck,?) has resulted in a much improved simulation of ocean currents. The atmospheric component of HadCM3 includes a state-of-the-art radiation code (Edwards and Slingo,?), which allows explicit representation of the major greenhouse gases and aerosols and a parametrisation of momentum transport by convection (Kershaw and Gregory, ?). A new land surface scheme, called ``MOSES'', accounts for the effects of soil water phase changes and the impact of CO2 concentrations on transpiration (Cox et al, 1998). HadCM3 represents the first step in the development of an Earth System Model in that it includes a sulphur-cycle sub-model which converts prescribed emissions into aerosol concentrations, which can influence the Earth's radiation budget both directly and indirectly through their influence on the properties of clouds. Other work at the Hadley Centre is also extending the remit of the GCM by including formerly prescribed elements as interactive components of the model. A variant of HadCM3 is being used as the basis for the first coupled climate-carbon cycle model. "HadCM3LC" will incorporate models of the ocean and land carbon cycle which have been developed at the Hadley Centre in collaboration with partners from elsewhere. "HadOCC" represents chemical uptake of carbon dioxide by the ocean and includes a simple 4-box model of ocean biology which was developed at the Southampton Oceanography Centre. An interactive vegetation model, "TRIFFID", resolves the terrestrial biosphere into five plant functional types which can grow and spread based on the competition between the types and the carbon balance of each. Land surface parameters (such as albedo and roughness) are updated based on the changing vegetation distribution and structural properties, so that physical climate -vegetation feedbacks can be included as well as those associated with CO2. The model developments outlined above will require additional and new methods of validation. Slow processes such as forest migration and carbon uptake cannot be adequately validated by detailed observation of the current climate system and its variability. Here, palaeoclimate data is likely to be especially useful, as it offers the possibility of testing the ability of Earth System models to reproduce past equilibrium states of climate, vegetation and CO2. An effective partnership with the Hadley Centre in this area would provide valuable guidance on future model developments and improvements. With this in mind we would aim to complement the experiments which the Hadley Centre plans to carry out before the end of 1999: 1) A 1000-year simulation with constant forcing. 2) An ensemble of 4 simulations in which the model will be forced with anthropogenic forcings (Greenhouse gases, sulphates and ozone) for the period 1850--2000. 3) An ensemble of 4 simulations in which the model will be forced with changes in solar irradiance (Lean et al) and Volcanic aerosol changes (Sato et al) for the period 1850--2000. 4) An ensembles of 4 simulations in which the model will be forced with changes in well mixed Greenhouse gases for the period 1850--2000. 5) One of the anthropogenic and one of the well mixed greenhouse gas simulations will be continued to 2100. 6) Control (zero CO2 emissions) and anomaly (anthropogenic emissions) coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations for the period 1850--2100. 2694. 1998-08-31 01:48:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 31 Aug 1998 01:48:35 -0400 from: shein@gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov subject: Attention Data Professionals to: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk You will find within the text below announcements for two upcoming conferences during the first week of November in the Washington D.C. area. Please plan to attend both. DATA ARCHIVING: POLICIES AND PRACTICE A USGCRP DATA MANAGEMENT WORKING GROUP WORKSHOP November 4-6, 1998, Laurel, MD The Data Management Working Group (DMWG) of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is pleased to announce the third in a series of annual workshops focusing on data center operational issues. This year's workshop, hosted by NASA, is devoted to data archiving issues and is directed toward data center, library and archives operational staff. The venue for the workshop will be the National Wildlife Research Center in Laurel, MD. The workshop is limited to 100 attendees and the cost of participation is $50, which includes meals and evening programs. For more details regarding this workshop or to register, please contact the workshop organizers or visit the workshop web page: http://gcmd.nasa.gov/dmwg98/ Data Archiving Workshop contacts: - Lola Olsen, NASA/GSFC, Tel: +1 (301) 614-5361 Fax: +1 (301) 614-5268, E-mail: olsen@gcmd.nasa.gov - Karsten Shein, Raytheon, Tel: +1 (301) 441-4214 Fax: +1 (301) 441-4335, E-mail: shein@gcmd.nasa.gov ---------------------------------------------------------------------- And earlier during the first week of November... SCIENTIFIC DATA CENTERS SYMPOSIUM HOSTED BY RAYTHEON & NOAA/NESDIS November 2-4, Silver Spring, MD Preceding the DMWG workshop, Raytheon in partnership with NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS), will be hosting the Third Annual Raytheon Science Data Centers Symposium on November 2-4 at the NOAA Science Center in Silver Spring, MD. Intended primarily for Raytheon, government, and university employees, the symposium brings together a broad group of predominantly space and Earth science data centers and data management facilities to share visions, approaches, technologies, procedures, and practices for improving the services that are offered to researchers, educational institutions, and the general public. The theme for this year's symposium is: "Interoperability: The Next Generation of Data Access." If you'd like more information on the Data Centers Symposium, including contact information, abstract submission (attendees are invited to submit abstracts for poster or oral presentations), and registration, visit: http://www.stx.com/dcs98 Scientific Data Centers Symposium contacts: - Lou Mayo, Raytheon, Tel: +1 (301) 286-0165, E-mail: lmayo@pop600.gsfc.nasa.gov - Marc McCloy, NOAA/NESDIS, +1 (301) 713-3580, E-mail: mmccloy@nesdis.noaa.gov The conference and workshop are both relevant to data management and do not overlap. One could plan to attend both and not miss a session. If you know of anyone who may have an interest in these conferences, please forward this announcement to them. Our apologies if you should happen to receive multiple copies of this announcement. =================== End of message ================= 4879. 1998-09-03 12:33:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: p.jones@uea,t.osborn@uea date: Thu Sep 3 12:33:47 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: NERC proposal review to: "Dr. Myles Allen" Myles thanks indeed for the trouble you have taken and particularly for your willingness to discuss the issues you raise openly. On a quick first reading I have to say that I think I agree with almost everything you say - certainly I agree that the complex methods of analyses we mention do not necessarily hold out greater promise than simple regression. However, you are absolutely correct when you assume that this is just the message I intended to relay. The truth of this must be explicitly demonstrated and considerable efforts to compare methods with the same input data will no doubt be required. I , and I know Tim and Phil, will be really delighted to collaborate with you on this if we are successful . I believe Mike Mann will do likewise and I believe that together we would likely make a useful contribution to the science of this area. At this moment , I am (almost literally) up to my neck in bits of scrawl trying to put together a draft NERC Thematic Proposal and I must defer discussion 'til next week. In the meantime I will pass this message and your comments on to Tim and Phil and , with your permission (?) , later forward them to Mike Mann. Again thanks for the review and let's hope we are funded. See you soon. best wishes Keith At 11:53 AM 9/3/98 +0100, you wrote: >Dear Keith, Phil and Tim, > >I just completed a (rather late) review of your proposal, "Improving our >understanding of natural climate variability...", enclosed. Since NERC have a >habit of selectively editing these reviews before passing them back to the >proposers, I wanted you to see the whole thing. As you can see, I'm strongly >recommending funding, although I did have some reservations about your proposed >methodology. I think these should be straightforward for you to reply to -- in >any case, the committee might just see this as a difference of opinion between >us. If you are interested in pursuing the explicit modelling approach and would >like to discuss it further before replying, we could perhaps talk it over at the >conference next week. > >Regards, > >Myles >-------- >Review of GR3/12107, Briffa et al, "Improving our understanding of >natural climate variability..." > >This is an excellent project which I rate overall as highly recommend >for funding. The resources requested seem very reasonable for a >significant extension of what is already an internationally successful >research programme addressing a topic of central significance to the >mission of NERC. Drs. Osborne, Jones and Briffa are all leading >experts in the field of centennial-timescale climate reconstruction, >eminently well-qualified for this project. This recommendation is >based on general expertise in the analysis of climate variability and >its role in the the detection of anthropogenic climate change, some >work on secondary analysis of paleoclimatic indicators but no direct >experience in the acquisition or primary analysis of paleodata. I >have a number of methodological queries, detailed below, which it >might be helpful for the authors to clarify, although I stress these >are relatively minor details which should not be taken as >justification for denying funding. > >The authors' key advantage over many others working in this field is >direct familiarity with the primary acquisition of paleodata and, with >it, an appreciation of the central problem of potential >non-stationarity in the functional relationship between >paleo-indicators and climate variables (see, for example, Briffa et >al, 1998a). Thus, despite the fact that the project is extremely >ambitious, I am confident that they will not, as others may have done, >fall into the trap of overinterpreting the paleorecord. A key output >of this project should be an assessment of the implications of such >non-stationarity on the used of the 20th century instrumental record >as a calibration period for paleodatasets. > >Part of the problem in much recent work in this area has been an >over-reliance on apparently sophisticated analysis techniques which >are not obviously motivated by the problem and which make it extremely >difficult to evaluate the significance (physical or statistical) of >any relationships observed. Spectral techniques (whether or not they >are evolutive) are particularly dangerous, since they rely explicitly >on an assumption of stationarity over a certain timescale the >implications of which are often obscure. Lagged-window eigenvector >techniques like EEOFs/MSSA looked like a solution when first >introduced, but turned out to be subject to many of the same sorts of >problems. Thus I don't fully understand why the authors feel that >EEOFs/MSSA, evolutive spectral analysis (methodology part i) and >frequency-domain transfer function estimation (part ii) are the >techniques of first resort. If the aim is to critically evaluate some >of the more extravagant claims which have recently been made on the >basis of these techniques, then I fully support it. For the purposes >of actually advancing our understanding of the relationship between >past climate and paleoindicators, I suggest that a simpler and more >direct approach is likely to be much more informative. > >The hypothesised relationships between hemispheric-scale and grid-box >climate variables and between grid-box variables and local >paleoindicators must be written down explicitly (this doesn't need to >mean an explicit model of tree growth -- very likely nothing more >complicated would be needed in either case than a linear regression >model with a red noise residual term) and a standard uncertainty >analysis provided on all unknown parameters. If no such relationships >can be written down, or no consistent model found, then we must >question the point of the whole exercise, but I am prepared to believe >this is not the case. If they can be written down, then techniques >like EEOFs/MSSA should only be brought in if there is a clear argument >that they are likely to provide a better estimate of model parameters >than simpler techniques like regression. I have not seen this >argument made, although this may simply reflect my relative >unfamiliarity with the primary paleoclimate literature. > >Having worked quite extensively on techniques like EEOFs/MSSA and >frequency-domain EOF analysis (the precursor of the Park-Mann >approach), I think I can state with some confidence that interdecadal >and centennial timescale modes of climate variability will be found, >which will appear coherent with similar modes extracted from the >paleorecord, and which will possibly even bear a striking resemblance >to modes extracted from the GCM control integrations, quite >irrespective of the true relationship, if any, between these various >datasets. I think, therefore, it would be reasonable for the >committee to request reassurance that parts (i) and (ii) of the >scientific methodology will not simply consist in applying these >analysis techniques to these datasets and inspecting the results, but >will include at least an element of explicit modelling along the lines >described above. This may be precisely what the authors mean by >"exploring the spatial congruence and sensitivity in spectral >character of the major modes" and comparing "the major spatiotemporal >components of this paleomatrix ... with those of the instrumental >matrix and model datasets", but I am afraid these sentences are too >compressed for me to understand exactly what they mean. If the >authors wish to correspond over this point in replying to this review, >I am quite happy for you to disclose my identity. I would also, if >the authors are interested and feel it would be helpful, be very >interested in advising them on their analysis approach as (as I assume >it will) the project proceeds. > >Please accept my apologies for the late return of this review. > >Myles Allen > 5148. 1998-09-04 17:27:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Sep 4 17:27:25 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Thematic Proposal-something to chew on to: rcpad@wpo.nerc.ac.uk,nth@wpo.nerc.ac.uk,gdw@wpo.nerc.ac.uk, davidw@globatmo.demon.co.uk,njs5@cam.ac.uk,p.j.valdes@reading.ac.uk, jfbmitchell@meto.gov.uk,sfbtett@meto.gov.uk,pmcox@meto.gov.uk, rbattarb@geography.ucl.ac.uk,frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch, j.lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk,g.boulton@ed.ac.uk,plg1@cam.ac.uk, alan@met.rdg.ac.uk,studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk Hi everyone, Following my and Paul's meeting with John Mitchell, Simont Tett and Peter Cox at the Hadley Centre and the general earlier discussions at Henrietta Street and Cambridge, I've come up with a first draft of a proposal. This is attached as a WORD file. Thanks to Simon ,Peter , John and Nick for contributions. Obviously what we have now is not that different in concept from the earlier proposal , which was good, but here I stress the novelty of a link with The Hadley Centre and put emphasis on climate change detection and attribution. It is not finished but I wanted to get something to you all by this weekend. Next week I am tied up with a conference we are organising here . Do not therefore expect something polished or very sharp! What we eventually need is a 3-page ( 6 sides) single-spaced document . We will need to squeeze up and prune the text therefore to make room for for additions and changes.Note then that your contributions need to be somewhat pithy or our pruning harsh. Obviously, it is easier to focus and refine our ideas when there is some- thing in print to attack, add to, or modify. That is the purpose of the attached text. I am far from happy with it because it needs better definition and organisation of the 'Research Programme' section and a good shake out of the specifics. I expect you all to do the relevant bits on your areas of the 'Specific Palaeo Context ' section. I have just put in some text to start us off . This needs obvious expanding (Rick,Frank,Geoff) and what about Palynology/plant macros? You will see that I've kept bits of the earlier proposal objectives and some sections such as 'deliverables' are pretty much the same. My main effort has been directed towards trying to overcome the'lack of originality' jibe of the earlier attempt. The emphasis is now on the Unified model, but I need Paul and Alan especially to work on the specific nature of the relationship with UGAMP, which is not yet in (perhaps in collaboration with John). Also, John, I want you to redo the bit about 'climate sensitivity'. We still need to be able to bring in a more explicit rationale for comparing slow response systems like vegetation dynamics. Nick, I'm not sure to what extent you wanted the relevance of late glacial or other pre-Holocene processes made explicit. The present proposal appears to stress high-resolution data and variability in the Holocene, but it's not meant to exclude other periods. I have a note in my records that says we agreed not to specify time periods as was done before but I think everyone should reconsider this. When you've all digested this attempt, I suggest you copy your comments (no matter how vicious) to all on the 'writing team'. That way, we can get all get a feeling for where the concensus lies. Let me say that I know this is hardly likely to please a large section of the Earth Science body, but we clearly agreed the need to push the variability issue up front. Neville has said we need a meeting in September to discuss this. He will contact you about it. There are some sections I can't write - Requested Resources and a Gannt chart of scheduling - until we agree the specific objectives. These can be finalised, and the criticisms discussed, at Neville's meeting. If we are going to finalise this by the end of September, you need to give me actual text, along with general comments, in time for me to try and assimilate everything and provide a review at this meeting. Best wishes, Keith 1534. 1998-09-14 14:38:34 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 14 Sep 1998 14:38:34 -0700 from: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" subject: climate of the last millennia... to: p.jones@uea.ac.uk, Keith Briffa , mann@snow.geo.umass.edu, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu, drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu, coleje@spot.colorado.edu, Brian Luckman Hi Phil et al. - just read the Jones et al. Holocene paper (v. 8, p. 456-471) and had a couple comments/questions.... 1) nice paper 2) would you like to archive the reconstructions at the WDC-A for Paleo?? It would be great to add them to existing recent ones (Cook et al. - drought; Mann et al. NH temp; Briffa et al. NH temp, Overpeck et al. Arctic temp). It would be ideal to get each of the 17 proxy records PLUS the hemispheric recons. 3) regarding proxies, I wonder how much of the "quality" issue regarding ice cores and some other remote proxy records is due to there not being any instrumental stations near them (and at the same altitude)? Also, with respect to coral records, I get the feeling most in the coral community now think there is something "funny" about long Galapagos record (age model, maybe more - I think a new record is being generated). Also, many coral 18O records (e.g., New Caledonia) are influenced by both temp and salinity variations. This is a solid reason why the fit of such a record to temp won't be as good as you'd like (or as good as a buffo dendro record). I think Terry Quinn is generating the trace metal data to sort temp out. Lastly, I've now seen a number of coral records (most not published, but Tarawa is an example I think) where the proxy does as well as local instrumental data (in this case ppt) in getting the regional signal, AND the local instrumental record only go back to the war. I'm guessing, just between us, that ENSO recons based on proxies will soon be better than instrumental ones before 1950 - not just before 1850! In fact, I'd bet on it (using some of the money Ray still owes Julie!). Thus, I worry that it might not be wise to dismiss reconstructions on a proxy basis, particularly since trees lack one important trait - they don't work for all parts of the globe. 4) About trees.... (Keith are you still reading?? - I sent this to Ed and Brian too, since they might have insights). Has anyone examined how a tree-ring recon degrades as a function of sample size back in time. I always see the quality of dendro recons cast as GREAT vs.other proxies (and they are) based on comparison with instrumental records. But, the dendro records usually have the best sample replication in this same instrumental period, and then tail off back in time. For example, Brian's Jasper recon has a sample depth of ca 28 trees in the last century, but drops off to ca. 5 in the 12th century and 1 (?) in the 11th century. The "quality" of the recon must degrade too?? In contrast, some non-dendro reconstructions may not verify as well as dendro vs the instrumental record, but they might not degrade with time either since the sample density doesn't change with time. Thus, could it be that at some point back in time, the dendro records degrade to the same quality (or worse) than other proxies??? 5) Talking specifically about Jasper, it is interesting that the 20th century is as warm or warmer than everything in the last 1000 years EXCEPT before ca. 1110 AD. Since the sample depth before this time is 5 or less, how much faith should we put in those warmer than modern temps?? 6) I went to the trouble of all this mainly to A) get some feedback (and data into the WDC) and also B) to highlight that we need to extra careful in judging the quality of one proxy over or under another. If a well known group of paleo scientists suggest that, for example, corals are not that useful, then it might mean more years before we have a mutli-century record of tropical climate variability. I think it is clear that each proxy has limitations (and I like the table 2 idea of Jones et al), but the real need is to understand that each record (not just each proxy) has pros and cons, and that wise use requires knowing these pros/cons. Some coral, ice core and sediment records are no doubt better than some dendro records (also, for example, with respect to reconstructing low frequency variations in climate). I'm NOT trying to dis tree-rings, but rather to suggest more balance in what we all say in the literature. 7) Lastly, I think there is a need to have a small workshop to put together an expanded version of Jones' et al. table 2, and, more importantly, to set some guidelines for data generators in terms of the kinds of data and meta data that need to be archived to ensure best use of the data (for example, information of the nature of the climate signal and what might bias it - like the salinity effect on a coral record or method of standardization on a dendro record). Also, we need guidelines on what info should be archived with a climate reconstruction (for example, are error bars available; if not, why not - there are often good reasons, but the interdisicplinary user might not get it). It might be best if the database could be upgreaded, so that users would know, for example, that a proxy record or recon they want to use has some recently discovered problem or verification. I've asked Mike Mann if he'd like to help put together such a workshop with me, and I think I have some US funding for it - it would be small, with just a couple folks from each proxy plus some folks like Phil and Mike who are well-know users of paleo data. Like the idea?? Thx for reading this far. Cheers, Peck Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program National Geophysical Data Center 325 Broadway E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6172 fax: 303-497-6513 jto@ngdc.noaa.gov For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries, PLEASE USE: Dr. Jonathan Overpeck NOAA National Geophysical Data Center 3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136 Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6160 2883. 1998-09-16 14:08:02 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 14:08:02 -0700 from: "Pitcher, Hugh M" subject: RE: WGI emissions/scenarios conference to: 'Mike Hulme' Hi Mike, As an internal constructor, I have concerns about GNP growth rates being much too high, leading to per capita incomes in 2100 that are a factor of two to three too high--implying impacts wiol be less of a problem. From a carbon point of view, these high GNP levels are offset by high reductions in final energy demand, and high rates of decarbonization, leading to carbon scenarios that are not too bad. I am working on a spreadsheet model that will allow a quick and dirty way to redress these issues. But the modeling groups have already put in a lot of work, and are not likely to be willling to go back to square one and redo things. This is particularly an issue for compute intensive tools such as message, image, and Maria. see below for my reactions to the points you make. could you send this on to scenario discussion group. Outlook is not treating me well on trying to get the message to everybody. cheers, hugh -----Original Message----- From: Mike Hulme [SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 1998 4:23 PM To: scenarios Subject: WGI emissions/scenarios conference Dear All, Here are three comments on the questions raised by WGI TSU on 7 Sept. and by some of the other contributions to the discussion about scenarios for IPCC TAR. I am commenting from the perspective of a climate scenario constructor servicing the impacts research community: 1. The SRES Working Group have identified 4 Marker Scenarios (out of a much larger range, although these 4 largely capture the range). I think the choice is good. I do not see why some modelling centres should not be able to run all 4 emissions scenarios through their GCM. From an impacts perspective I believe this would be very desirable and would enable a fair range of climate change scenarios to be used in impacts work using direct GCM output (without the need for scaling). And if all four Markers could be run through more than one GCM (i.e., with different climate sensitivities) then impacts work would have an even better sample of the possible climate change space to analyse. These aspects of uncertainty seem to me to be critical for impacts people (and integrated assessors) to explore, to get us away from single number 'answers'. amen 2. If a single emissions scenario *has* to be adopted by some GCM groups, B2 seems to have the recommendation from Naki (and maybe SRES too - the storyline refers to it as 'dynamics as usual'). I think there are probably good reasons why SO2 emissions fall so much in this storyline - regional rather than global solutions and the encouragement of environmental protection. The fact that the reduced C emissions relative to IS92a are offset by the big fall in SO2 emissions (the net global warming in B2 is actually slightly higher than IS92a if aerosol effects are included) should simply be seen as a reflection of a more carefully worked out storyline than was the case with IS92a. I do not think it a good idea (indeed, I think it would be a very *bad* idea) for GCM centres to mix-and-match elements of IS92 and SRES98 scenarios - the TAR should try and stick with the SRES stories and emissions wherever possible. The internal consistency in these storylines (and hopefully emissions) is important to maintain (especially later on for impacts work), and the thinking behind the SRES scenarios is considerably better than was achieved in the IS92 scenarios. I agree about not mixing. the real issue is finding a good way to fill in emissions that are not estimated by a given group. We may need an explicit table that each group fills in that gives which sources they do estimate. see response to question 4. 3. The problem of different Markers having different 1990 emissions values (and the fact that 1990s C emissions diverge from those observed) is more serious. By 2000 the four Markers range in C emissions from energy sources from 6.6GtC (B1) to 8.0 GtC (A1). Given where we are right now (about 6.7GtC in 1997) it seems daft to have such a range for only 2 years hence (as Tom Wigley has pointed out). For example, by the time TAR is published we will know that A1 C emissions for 2000 are too high by, say, 15%. Surely we need to impose a 'fix' on all 4 Markers to account for this. Such amendment may occur as a result of the SRES 'open-process', but this will take up to 12 months to be agreed and published. Should not someone (WGI or WGIII TSUs) impose a temporary solution now for climate modellers? The problem is that different models use different baseline data sets, and this is very expensive to redo. One approach is to adapt a common 1990 data set and then apply model based rates of change to get to predicted levels. This does not solve the year 2000 problem, or the year 2005 or 2010 problem. The larger issue here is that most of the long term scenarios that are available have economic growth rates that are implausibly high, and this was true before the current financial crisis began. Good sceanrios for the short term require very different kinds of tools than we are using for the long term scenarios. I would be willing to vote for a uniform set of emissions values for the year 2000 and then let the models diverge from there, based on their growth rates. We would still have to come to an agreement about what the economic activity and emissions levels would be for the year 2000. Similarly, something needs to be done for CH4 and N20 1990 emissions. CH4 1990 emissions range from 281 to 481Tg in the 4 Markers (compared with 506Tg in IS92). Surely this range is not defendable. I think at the least we need some assurance from SRES that there has been some investigation into these differences and that they will withstand scientific scrutiny in peer review. Again, maybe the open-process may lead to revisions, but what do climate modellers do in the meantime? [By the way, the difference in global warming by 2100 that the SRES CH4 and N2O scenarios generates relative to those in IS92a is between 0.05 and 0.3degC - lower in all cases]. the issue here is that all the models do not do ag and land use emissions, leading to lower values because these emissions are omitted. Another issue that has recently arisen here is that animal manure is a significant source of n20--latest ipcc protocol on emissions--and is apt to grow rapidly. this changes our understanding of the potential role of agriculture when it comes to trying to stabilize climate. Mike **************************************************************************** Dr Mike Hulme Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162 Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ Norwich NR4 7TJ **************************************************************************** Mean temp. in Central England during 1998 is running at about 1.2 deg C above the 1961-90 average *************************************************** The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly estimate for the first half of 1998 was about +0.60 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest such period yet recorded **************************************************************************** 440. 1998-09-16 15:02:55 ______________________________________________________ cc: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk date: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 15:02:55 +0100 from: Dave Slade subject: RE: CONFIDENTIAL REFEREE FEEDBACK FOR STANDARD GRANT GR3/11950 to: nwal@soton.ac.uk Dear Dr Arnell, This e-mail contains comments provided by the referees of your standard grant (grant number in subject line) which you may wish to respond to. Please note that you are only being sent those parts of the report that contain queries or criticisms of your proposal and these may not reflect the overall tone of the report or the funding recommendation. Should you wish to respond to the points raised by the referees, please do so by the end of 29th September 1998 to allow us to include your response in the papers sent to the committee reviewing your grant. We realise that this is a short period of time and would encourage you to submit your response by e-mail or fax where possible. Please make sure that you include your grant number. Where appropriate (and possible) this e-mail has been copied to the other PI's on the grant in case the lead PI is out of contact. However we can only accept one response to these comments (preferably from the lead PI) - not one from each PI contacted. Please note that further referee comments that have arrived late may be forwarded to you as they come in. Please acknowledge receipt of this e-mail. Yours sincerely Dave Slade ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REFEREE C The proposal seeks to simulate time series of monthly streamflow using regional climatic time series or patterns of rainfall, temperature and other data that can be given to the hydrological model which in turn are calculated to be correlated to large scale atmospheric or oceanic indices. The latter might be the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino or spatial patterns of sea surface temperature or atmospheric variability. The way this is to be done is described very little. In fact some fairly concrete examples of possible approaches to one or two specific problems could have been given. I have a feeling that the hydrological modelling part of this proposal has been thought out more than the climatic inputs. There has been much work relating ENSO to rainfall deficiency or excess over the globe, and also to temperature anomalies. Presumably this work (key papers might have been referenced) can be readily adapted to calculate large scale streamflow using the CRU climatic data sets and the large scale model. The links between NAO and rainfall and temperature in the winter half year have also been investigated by several authors and are very strong in some parts of Europe and perhaps North West Africa. Evidence is also starting to emerge from UKMO research that the winter NAO might have a predictable component and that decadal modulation of the interannual variability is important. In addition there is evidence of strong non-ENSO influences of sea surface temperature patterns (e.g. in the Atlantic) on some South American and African rainfall, and presumably streamflow. Note that work is going on in Australia and South Africa, with links to the UKMO, on this problem. This background favours the proposal. The proposal does not note that a complicating factor in ENSO-related rainfall predictability is the time-varying nature of some of the links. An example is Australia where this problem has long been known, if so far largely ignored in, for instance, the Bureau of Meteorology RAINMAN service to farmers and hydrologists. Recent research seems to implicate decadal to multidecadal modulation of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. One might suspect this problem is important in Southern Africa where large quasi-bidecadal variations of rainfall are well known. In both cases active research is now being done to investigate decadal modulation of interannual rainfall teleconnections. The misbehaviour of some 1997-8 El Nino teleconnections might be related in part to this. Decadal/multidecadal modulation of interannual variability is starting to emerge more generally as an important paradigm, stimulated by recent published evidence for mechanisms in the Pacific and the Atlantic. Since the proposal involves hydrological simulations over the whole twentieth century, this aspect of the problem should be explicitly considered. The proposal needs to be revised to demonstrate in more detail that a strong start can be made in two or three key large regions (including Europe perhaps), using current or emerging knowledge about climatic teleconnections. It would help to reformulate the project to consult with other selected projects that have related aims, and do a better review of teleconnection and climate mechanisms literature. REFEREE E The overall goal of the proposal is to test the hypothesis that there is an influence of large scale phenomena (such as ENSO) in hydrological records. This is a laudable and meritorious goal and one that should be addressed. However, the test should be made using real hydrological records not with synthetic hydrological records created by introducing a synthetic daily pattern into monthly precipitation records and then calculating synthetic runoff records. The daily pattern of precipitation may itself depend on the global phenomenon and there will always be argument about the realism of the hydrological model (despite the intention to test it against data). The net effect of introducing this artificiality will be to denigrate rather than enhance the credibility of any relationship found. The fact that the actual hydrological records may not be globally available or may be unreliable in certain parts of the world (if this is in fact what motivates suggesting the approach described in the proposal) does not justify replacing true records with artificial records to carry out the test. Rather, the testing should be restricted to regions where the data is robust enough to allow it. ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: Mr Dave Slade Awards & Training NERC Tel: 01793 411783 Fax: 01793 411655 e-mail:david.a.slade@nerc.ac.uk 717. 1998-09-17 10:35:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: coleje@spot.colorado.edu, jto@ngdc.noaa.gov, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, luckman@sscl.uwo.ca, mann@geo.umass.edu, mhughes@ltrr.arizona.edu, rbradley@geo.umass.edu date: Thu, 17 Sep 1998 10:35:12 -0400 (EDT) from: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu to: p.jones@uea.ac.uk Dear Phil, Thanks for your message. I've chosen to "expand" the distribution list to include a few other individuals who can better address some of the key points you raise. A meeting in January built around the AMS meeting (which should bring people into the Boulder vicinity) sounds like a good tentative plan. Peck? I'm assuming everyone on this list is a potential attendee... As for your general comments, they get to some essential points. The modeling community leaders are probably about as skeptical about our paleo-reconstructions as we are of their sulphate aerosol parameterizations, flux corrections (or more worrying, supposed lack thereof in some cases!), and handling of the oh-so-important tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interface... So my personal philosophy is that more than one side here can benefit from extending the olive branch, and there are a few individuals in the modeling community who could benefit from slowing down on the stone throwing from their fragile glass tower :) More to the point, though, I strongly believe the paleo community needs to present an honest but unified front regarding what we all agree we can definitely, probably, and simply not yet say about the climate of the past several centuries, and plan strategies that will allow us all to work towards improved reconstructions without stepping on each others toes. There's a challenge there, but one I'm sure we can all rise to. I am grateful to Peck for realizing that the time is ripe for a workshop in which we all strategize as a group towards these ends. I believe we all go into this in "good faith", and I'm very excited about what the workshop might produce, in particular, in terms of effective long-term strategies. I share Phil's concern about getting things "straightened out" before the IPCC report. As one of the lead authors on the "observed climate variation and change" chapter for the 3rd assessment report, a key goal of mine will be to present fairly and accurately all of our different efforts, and the common denominator amongst them... I also understand all-to-well Phil's concerns about free data exchange. In fact, we've been working closely w/ Peck to get every aspect of our reconstructions, including calibration/verification statistics, etc., available on-line at NGDC. The one catch w/ the paleo network is that a few of the indicators we used were provided us under conditions that they not yet be passed along (this includes, I believe, the Morrocan tree rings, and some others. And at least one important indicator--Malcolm's Yakutia record--was as yet unpublished. Not myself knowing the details of the propietary issues involved here, I have resisted simply putting our entire multiproxy network out their for public consumption. But working w/ Peck and Malcolm, I'm sure we can do this appropriately and quickly. That's an example of a key issue that would be on the table at the workshop in question. --------------------PHIL'S MESSAGE TO PECK------------------------ Peck, Thanks for the comments on the paper in The Holocene ! The paper stems from work Keith and I have been doing with the Climate Change Detection group headed by Tim Barnett. It is much toned down from some of the things about paleo data that Tim and Simon Tett wanted to say. Long paleo series (either the individual ones or regional/hemispheric averages) have got to be good before these sorts of people will begin to use them and believe they tell us something about variability in the past - something that cannot be got from long control runs of GCMs. A small meeting would be a good idea, therefore. Mike Mann knows the next few times I'll be in the US. The first possible date for him is the AMS annual meeting in Dallas in Jan 99 - maybe we can tag something onto the end of this for a day or two. I'll let you and Mike work something out on this. I'm also in the US for a meeting on Climate Extremes which is tentatively scheduled for March 9-13 in Asheville. Prsentation of the paleo data is the key in all this. Tim Barnett was somewhat horrified by the coherency diagrams he produced (fig 9). He then produced Fig 10 from the GCM and that was not much better. Hidden between the lines of the paper is the theme that a number of us have been saying for years ( especially Ray and Malcolm) that the LIA and MWE were not that global and not that different from today's temperatures. Mike's paper in Nature reiterates this. Keith and I have been thinking of writing a forum piece for The Holocene addressing in somewhat provocative terms what paleoclimatologists should be doing with regard the detection issue and to some extent with respect to science in general - should be continue using terms like LIA and MWE for example. We hope to address many of the issues you make in your email - seasonality, consistency of the proxy through time, goodness of the proxy etc. We need to come up with some agreed strategy on this especially with IPCC coming up. What we did in the paper was one way of assessing proxy quality. Something like Tables 2 and 4 are what is required though to inform the uninitiated (modellers) about proxy data. For use in detection at the moment a paleo series has to be a proxy for temperature. I know proxies tell us about other aspects of the climate as well, but a clear, unambiguous temperature signal is what is needed. Some other quick answers - 1) Happy to send to you all the series and the hemispheric values. I hope Mike will send all his as well, but the last time we discussed this he said that some could not be made freely available. This isn't Mike's fault but there are still some stumbling blocks to free exchange of data within the various paleo communities. 2) We all know the quality of proxies changes with time. Trees don't have dating problems but do have the reduction in sample depths you talk about. Dendro people are much more open about this though than the coral and especially the ice core communitites. 3) Trees may not grow everywhere but they are more global in extent than the others. There are also many more chronologies available and this is a factor. We had much more choice there than in the other paleo groups. 4) Whilst we are taking bets, proxies will never be better than instrumental data. Corals will eventually extend the SOI series but never be better than it for the years after 1850. Similarly with the NAO. Instrumental data exists to extend this to about 1750 and the fact that such data is sitting out there is only just begining to be realised. A great NAO reconstruction could be produced if the real data extended over nearly 200 years, enabling the low-frequency aspects to be considered in much more detail than ever before ( a la Stahle with the SOI). That's enough for now. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- _______________________________________________________________________ Michael E. Mann Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Geosciences Morrill Science Center University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu (normal) memann@titan.oit.umass.edu (attachments) Web: http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/mike Phone: (413) 545-9573 FAX: (413) 545-1200 1620. 1998-09-18 10:51:20 ______________________________________________________ cc: t.osborn@uea, k.briffa@uea, p.jones@uea date: Fri Sep 18 10:51:20 1998 from: Tim Osborn subject: GR3/12107 response to referee's comments to: kec@wpo.nerc.ac.uk Dear Karen On behalf of Keith Briffa, Phil Jones and myself, I have attached our responses to the referee's comments regarding our NERC research grant proposal (GR3/12107). They are included as a Word 7.0 document attached to the e-mail, and repeated below as plain text. Please acknowledge receipt of this message, and confirm that you can read our comments. Regards Tim -------------------------------------------------------- 16 September 1998 Dear Ms Campbell Thank you for the opportunity to respond to the referees’ comments on our invited resubmission (GR3/12107; ML:21). In general, the various remarks could justifiably stimulate protracted discussion, though we have restricted ourselves to relatively brief responses. These are ordered as in your letter: Referee A Many of this referee’s remarks are most appropriately viewed as comments rather than ‘problems’ or questions. We wish to say that, in almost all respects, we concur with the spirit of what is said. We agree that "in much recent work .... there has been an over-reliance on apparently sophisticated analysis techniques" which make it "difficult to evaluate the significance .... of any relationships observed". However, the referee is mistaken (perhaps because of the way we described our intended methodology) that we consider such methods to be the "techniques of first resort". On the contrary, we argue strongly (in our published work and in this proposal) that simpler techniques are always to be preferred: ones where explicit attention can be given to quantifying the nature of the association between palaeo and real/modelled data. This is not to say that the more complex techniques we specify are not useful. Indeed they can represent very efficient and objective methods for summarising and comparing the associations between the various data sets - provided (as the referee implies) that there exist direct, local relationships between the palaeodata and the relevant primary observed (or modelled) climate parameter, one that can be expressed in the form of a simple linear equation (with some autoregressive error term). Incidentally, the more sophisticated spatio/temporal techniques need not necessarily provide ‘better’ estimates of the (regression) model parameters, if they provide a more efficient or easily demonstrable means by which the patterns of interest may be portrayed. However, they should provide reconstructions that are demonstrably no worse than simpler techniques. We wish to investigate this and issues of comparative reconstruction confidence in this proposed work. We do reassure the referee and the committee, that our analyses were never intended to apply the ‘sophisticated’ techniques exclusively and we had always intended to include the ‘explicit modelling’ referred to by the referee. We wish to make one final point, as regards referee A’s remarks. We believe the simple model associations (and hence reconstruction uncertainties) between palaeodata and the observed data are frequency-dependent [we discuss this in Jones et al. (1998) referred to in the proposal] and require appropriate quantification in explicitly specified period bands, hence the suggested use of some of the techniques we list. Again, this issue has not been adequately addressed in the recent literature. In summary, we disagree with nothing in principle said by this referee and indeed their remarks suggest that, were this proposal to be successful, some collaboration would prove very beneficial to its outcome. Referee D The proposal is ambitious - perhaps somewhat overly ambitious - but this is an important and extensive area for research. Given the collaboration with others that we hope for, however, we are determined to make a valuable contribution. It is somewhat contradictory of this referee to then suggest we adopt a more global perspective for this research. This would significantly increase the workload. We made a pragmatic decision to concentrate on the Northern Hemisphere (or near Northern Hemisphere - we intend to include tropical data). Extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere data are not as numerous or as well documented as data north of 20°S. True, the mechanisms that drive climate change may operate outside of the region upon which we are focussing. However, that focus is only on issues of palaeoquality and the scope and veracity of climate inference; and the relationships with model data. The GCM model experiments are global in extent. It is not our intention to deal with model deficiencies - merely to identify what these are, or might be, on the evidence of the palaeodata. It is indeed true that the recent NAO trend is outside the range of "natural" variability defined by some GCM simulations (Osborn et al., 1998). As the referee then states, the question is, are the models deficient or are the recent trends "unnatural"? It is precisely for this reason that we wish to reconstruct an alternative estimate of natural variability of the NAO (and other indices and modes), based on proxy data. We note also that models with anthropogenic forcing or forced by observed SST (which has part of the anthropogenic signal in it) are able to reproduce part of the recent observed trend in the NAO (Osborn et al., 1998; Mark Rodwell and Chris Folland, pers. comm., 1998). Referee G 1. True, most of the available NAO-related palaeodata display stronger coherence with the observations in summer. The Moroccan tree-ring-based reconstruction of winter precipitation will, therefore, be important, but it is not our only source of data. Besides existing long instrumental data (e.g. CET) we will have significant new and longer ‘instrumental’ data (e.g. Cadiz MSLP data to 1776) because of other work at CRU. This will include an extended NAO record, itself extending back 200 years. Other proxies include ice core winter isotopes (Barlow et al., 1993), west Greenland ice accumulation (Appenzeller et al., 1998), tree-ring chronologies with some sensitivity to winter temperatures (Cook et al., 1998) and others. 2. Yes it does suggest that either the spatial pattern of response (as reflected in different climate parameters) has changed - or that the response pattern has remained the same, but some other spatial signal has degraded the NAO signal. This is a complex problem but one that can only be addressed by maintaining separate, pressure-related (including instrumental) evidence of the NAO variability and independent proxy evidence of the response pattern. We wish to explore this issue in collaboration with Dr. J. Hurrell, who we have recently learned will be visiting the Hadley Centre for an extended visit during 1999. 3. Page 3, paragraph 2, line 12 was poorly expressed. Not all the proxies go back 1000 years and the CET record only extends to 1659. Referee H All of this research, including part (i), will be done in close collaboration with modellers at the UK Met. Office and at DKRZ in Hamburg. Indeed, Drs. Simon Tett and Ulrich Cubasch will be actively collaborating with us and providing direct input to the project, and we are in close contact with other modelling/palaeo institutions that are now proposing similar investigations (e.g. Dr. Hans von Storch at GKSS in Germany and Dr. Nanne Weber at KNMI in Netherlands). We hope that the above points clarify the issues raised by the referees. If the committee requires any other clarification, we would be happy to attempt to respond. Yours sincerely Keith R. Briffa Phil D. Jones Timothy J. Osborn 908. 1998-09-18 12:36:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Sep 18 12:36:19 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: palaeo data to: "Jenkins, Geoff" Dear Geoff it good to hear from you. By now you may know that we had a small working meeting to consider the current draft of the thematic bid yesterday in London. Simon Tett , Nick Shackleton , Paul Valdes and I really did get to grips with a lot of the important details concerning the way in which such a project might actually run. We are going for a joint Earth science/Atmospheric Science Board application for 8 million to run over 5 years. Simon told us about your offer of some support - perhaps as money , perhaps as some equivelent- and the spirit of the offer is much appreciated. Frankly, the fact that you consider this a worthy and valid scientific exercise is what really gives me cheer. We have a long way to go to really sort out many of the problems with the palaeo data and with the methodology of using them in a validation and/or detection context, but I genuinely believe this approach will yield rewards somewhere down the line. I think our support from the earth science side is very probable. The politics of the Atmospheric Board - and the potential clash with other initiatives coming from Reading - mean that their support ( in any meaningful sense) can't be thought of as more than possible. I suppose we may have something like a near 50 % chance of eventually getting some money , but 50% is pretty good. I will now ammend the document to show an explicit requirement for formal supervisory input on the programme from the Hadley Centre and I acknowledge that there will be no blanket release of data whatever happens. I will forward the application to you soon. If we get through the outline agreement stage with NERC , we will surely revisit these practical details , along with others. For now I simply say thanks to you and John for your support , and thanks for the input of Simon and Peter Cox. I will stay in touch as and when things develop. Even if we fail here, the science imperative will mean that we find other means of working with you -most likely through an EC grant - on these issues. Thanks again and I hope you are bearing up under the strain of recent troubles Keith At 11:53 AM 9/14/98 +0100, you wrote: >Keith > >Im afraid I dont have your original email abou you proposal for oa thematic >programme on palaeo data - we just got converted to Windows NT and I have >wiped my old emails by mistake. > >We would be very supportive of a programme which delivered better estimates >of natural variability of climate over the past 1000 yrs globally and >regionally which, as I recall, is the main aim. > >What do you want me / us to do, ie a letter to someone in NERC or you from >me/ Dave Carson/ Paul Mason saying ho w important the topic is and that we >would be immediate users of deliverables etc? > >Let me know and I will draft something. Can you re-email what you set please >- sorry. > >Cheers >Geoff > 3078. 1998-09-18 12:57:16 ______________________________________________________ cc: oldfield@ubecx01.unibe.ch date: Fri Sep 18 12:57:16 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: PAGES Open Science Meeting publication to: rbradley@geo.umass.edu Ray this is simply to say that I will get my paper to you as soon as I can. Frank knows that I am currently involved with writing a bid on behalf of the earth science community to try to extract 8 million pounds for a 5 year project from NERC to support Palaeo/Modelling validatin work. I was not allowed to say no to this request and it is involving me in a lot of meetings and associated crap. I am now redrafting the proposal. Also I must write my application to NERC for a fellowship - if this fails Sarah and I are unemployed after December as things stand. God knows there is little chance of success but the application must be in be the end of September and I have not started it yet. This is a big deal for me and I am putting you down as my primary suggested scientific referee. The PAGES paper can only be done in mid October and I really need your and Frank's understanding on this. I had to do the Thematic bid proposal as Nick Shackleton asked me to , and I want to put him down as my primary Personal reference! In early October I have to attend a NERC Earth Science Board meeting to defend the Thematic bid; a meeting of PEP3 in Belgium;a UK CLIVAR meeting in London; an EC meeting to present our ADVANCE-10K results in Vienna. This is not bullshit. I will do the PAGES meetin paper as fast as I can and you must please allow me the leeway . Sorry - but this will not really hold the publication up . If I could sort out some funding I could afford to drop some of these things but with the EC future also up in the air at the moment , I have to try to juggle these things. Sorry again Ray Keith At 09:07 PM 9/12/98 -0400, you wrote: >This is a reminder that the due date for your paper to be reviewed for the >Special edition of Quaternary Science Reviews was August 31....unless you >made a special deal with me (and have sent your checks to my Swiss bank >account) you should send me your manuscript AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!!! > >Thanks > >Ray > > >Raymond S. Bradley >Professor and Head of Department >Department of Geosciences >University of Massachusetts >Amherst, MA 01003-5820 >Tel: 413-545-2120 >Fax: 413-545-1200 >Climate Lab: 413-545-0659 >Climate Lab Web Site: > >Chairman IGBP-PAGES >Scientific Steering Committee >Baerenplatz 2 >CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland >Tel: +41-31-312-3133 >Fax: +41-31-312-3168 >EMail: pages@pages.unibe.ch >PAGES Web Site: > > 2603. 1998-09-22 13:37:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Sep 22 13:37:25 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: advice on manuscript K08434 to: grudd@natgeo.su.se Hakan this is in confidence Keith >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 12:34:02 +0100 >From: "VanDecar, John" >To: "'K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk'" >Subject: advice on manuscript K08434 >Date: Tue, 22 Sep 1998 12:33:04 +0100 > >Dear Keith, > > I am writing in the hope that you may be able to provide some advice >on a manuscript submitted to Nature by Douglas Keenan, entitled "The >300-year upheaval induced by the eruption of 2037 BC, and regional >radiocarbon disparities". > >The first paragraph of the paper follows: > >"Several researchers have previously identified a climatic upheaval in >tropical North Africa and south-western Asia that began just over 4000 >years ago and lasted for about three centuries. We argue here that the >upheaval included Europe, the North Atlantic, and probably most of the >world, that the principal climatic mechanism was an extremely high phase >of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and that it was likely the largest >climatic upheaval since the ice ages. The full scope of the upheaval has >previously been missed in part because radiocarbon dates from some areas >are centuries too early: palaeoclimatic events in different areas thus >appeared asynchronous. The cause of the radiocarbon-dating disparities >is identified as a regional deficiency in 14C, and we locate the >region's source of 14C-deficient carbon. The upheaval as previously >identified is known to have occurred shortly after a volcanic eruption. >A companion paper proposes that the eruption was colossal and dates it >to 2037 +/- 1 BC. Here we suggest how the eruption acted as a trigger >for the upheaval" > > Is this a paper that you would be willing to review for us? If so, >please let me know as soon as possible, and I will send it to you. To be >honest, we are not completely sure that the paper is not somewhat >fanciful, so if you felt that it did not deserve a detailed review, a >short report describing the main areas of deficiency would be adequate. > > Many thanks in advance for whatever help you are able to give me, and >I hope to hear from you soon. > >Best wishes, >John VanDecar > >=-------------------------------------------------------------------= > j.vandecar@nature.com / +44 171-843-4545 / fax +44 171-843-4596 > Nature Nature > 4 Crinan Street 968 National Press Building > London N1 9XW England Washington, DC 20045-1938 USA >=-------------------------------------------------------------------= > > 1533. 1998-09-23 13:22:45 ______________________________________________________ cc: p.jones@uea date: Wed Sep 23 13:22:45 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: request to: Nalan Koc please forgive my not getting round to this - I am stuck trying to get a proposal together with a very close deadline. I will ask someone else to send you these data. Sorry again Keith At 02:57 PM 9/18/98 +0200, you wrote: >Dear Dr. Briffa, > >We had met at the last PAGES meeeting in London, and I had later asked you >if you could send me a file containing Fennoscandinavian summer temperature >reconstructions. I still have not heard from you... The reason I ask for >this dataset is that I am reconstructing decadal scale sea-surface >temperatures from the Norwegian Sea where we see a clear "little ice age" >and Medieval warm periods, and would eventually like to compare them to >continental temperatures. > >Looking forward to hearing from you. > >Best regards, > >Nalan > >Dr. Nalan Koc >Dept. of Geology >University of Bergen >Allegt. 41 >N-5007 Bergen >NORWAY >Tlf: (47)55583470 >Fax: (47)55589417 > > > 5222. 1998-09-23 16:41:17 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 16:41:17 +0200 from: Frank Oldfield subject: Submission to NERC to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, Sorry it has taken so long to respond to this - a rather hectic time as ever, then I go off to the States tomorrow. I think you've done a great job and I find it hard to comment on the strategic aspects; not least because I was only very rarely a successful grant getter, which makes me think I don't have a very good mind set for doing these things. Here are a few questions - Does it stress benefit to UK enough? (as distinct from benefit to UK science and especially the Hadley Centre) Is it worth emphasizing more the dependence of all future planning of responses (crops/freshwater/renewable resources of all kinds) to global change on the reliablity of CLIMATE models? People in some other fields may need this ramming home, the more so since I think regional impacts will be higher and higher on the funding agenda from now on. Chronology is paramount and much of the work already done is at least partly compromised by poor dating control (as well as relatively low temporal/stratigraphic resolution). Maybe some stress on the need for additional PALAEO work meeting the goals of dating control + resolution + calibratable proxies needs to be made; possibly also ref. not only to tephra, but to the NERC C-14 dating capability and TIMS (eg. at OU) Links by UK scientists to international programmes of all knds - EU funded; PAGES-type stuff etc etc are very high in this whole research area. maybe a bit more can be made of this since it guarantees a lack of parochiality as well as a high potential for drawing in international resources to the endeavour. Beyond these points, I've made a few trivial observations on the text - mostly in CPAS and between !! !! I've returned the modified attachment both in Word 98 and Word 5. On another tack - is their anything we should be doing here in PAGES to help your Holocene publication plans along. I've looked over the outline you gave me again - it seems just great. Finally - in the middle of these very substantial and urgent commitments, what chance the Newsletter stuff and when? Replies on this to Keith Alverson who will be pulling it together. All the very best, Frank Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Themepro2.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Themepro.doc_-Wd5.doc" ____________________________________________ Frank Oldfield Executive Director PAGES IPO Barenplatz 2 CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland e-mail: frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch Phone: +41 31 312 3133; Fax: +41 31 312 3168 http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html 4236. 1998-09-23 21:11:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 21:11:09 +0100 (BST) from: Simon Tett subject: [sfbtett@meto.gov.uk: Modified proposal] to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk ------- Start of forwarded message ------- Date: Wed, 23 Sep 1998 20:57:22 +0100 From: Simon Tett Subject: Modified proposal To: Kieth Briffa Organization: Hadley Centre, UK Met Office Content-type: MULTIPART/MIXED; BOUNDARY="Boundary_(ID_5gUc/i7y8FnOOHNuhh+OxA)" This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_5gUc/i7y8FnOOHNuhh+OxA) Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Kieth, I have modified the proposal. Mosly minor changes -- flux corrections are now defined and 3 out of 4 aspects have been filled in -- I'm still waiting for Peter Cox to do the Carbon Cycle one. I'll hassle him tomorrow (thursday). This proposal is right down the midle of all the Global Change ones so I also added some reference to the NERC science plan. I havn't removed the 100K contribution from the HC(Did you see Geoff's message?). I'll let you figure out the form of words you want here. I hope this proposal goes through -- it would really help us deal with some important scientific issues. Its much more relevant that the COAPEC one! Simon P.S. 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AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA - --Boundary_(ID_5gUc/i7y8FnOOHNuhh+OxA) Content-type: text/x-vcard; name=vcard.vcf; charset=us-ascii Content-description: Card for Simon Tett Content-disposition: attachment; filename=vcard.vcf Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT begin: vcard fn: Simon Tett n: Tett;Simon org: Hadley Centre, U.K. Met. Office email;internet: sfbtett@meto.gov.uk x-mozilla-cpt: ;0 x-mozilla-html: FALSE version: 2.1 end: vcard - --Boundary_(ID_5gUc/i7y8FnOOHNuhh+OxA)-- ------- End of forwarded message ------- -- ============================================================ + Spinning in the wind at the UKMO + ============================================================ Tel : +[44]-1344-856886 Fax: +[44]-1344-854898 4343. 1998-09-24 12:01:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 12:01:13 +0200 from: Fortunat Joos subject: fix to co2 emissions and carbon cycle simulations to: scenarios@meto.gov.uk, colin@planteco.lu.se, stocker@climate.unibe.ch Dear Colleagues, Just two quick comments on the recent mails by David and Maria and Michael Prather >(David and Maria:) our recommendations are the following: >* Impose a "fix" on the 4 Markers to account for the differences in >the 1990 values (make them consistent with the observed data). One >possibility is to use the fix suggested by Wigley (Wigley, Nature 390, >1997): Use observed emissions to 1996 (as far as data is available), >linearly extrapolate these to 2000 (under the assumption that this is better >projection than the corresponding Marker projection) and then use Marker >changes from 2000. This fix is not big science and will have a marginal impact on projected CO2 given the overall scenario uncertainties. E.g. it is not really relevant whether emissions in 2100 are lets say 13.9 or 13.6 GtC/yr and we should not spend to much time on this issue. However, to avoid a mess and annoying discussions and recalculations somebody, e.g. the scenario group, must do this simple fix for all groups. Presently only the values for the year 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2100 are on the web site. Values for the other years e.g. similar to the table provide by Naki for B2, should be made available for all scenarios. >Finally we think it would be very useful for 1 or 2 GCM modellers, 1 or 2 >atmospheric chemistry experts and 1 or 2 scenario development experts to >attend the next SRES full author meeting (7-9 October 1998 - Beijing, >China). In that meeting the provisional scenarios will be discussed hence it >will be appropriate to present the points raised here and to discuss the >needs and preferences of the GCM community. >Our suggestions would be: >GCM modellers: G Boer, J Mitchell, J Meehl? >Atmospheric chemistry: F Joos, S Smith? >Scenarios: M Hulme? > >Are any of you able to attend the SRES meeting at such short notice? We >realise this may not seem like a high priority but we believe the scenarios >issue is critical for the TAR and if we can resolve it in this way it will >be well worth the investment in time. Sorry, but I do not see how I can make it to Beijing given all the ongoing obligations here in Bern as well as next weeks Vienna IPCC meeting. >(Michael:) Step-1: Generate the major forcing from B2 scenario. Limit >the RF to major gases: > > CO2 - WGI-Ch.3 (Prentice) to map emissions to CO2 (ppm) > .. We are ready in Bern to project CO2 concentrations for all of the Marker scenarios using 1) the Bern model as used in SAR 2) the Bern model as updated to include an energy balance model to project global SST and mean surface air temperature as well as sea level rise for prescribed climate sensitivities (dT2xCO2). SST is then used in the calculation of surface water CO2 partial pressure. Also included is sediment-ocean interaction. The temperature feedback on sea water carbonate chemistry is important for long term projections. 3) the 2.5-d physical-biogeochemical model of Stocker et al and Marchal et al. that allows us to study the interaction between the carbon cycle and changing thermohaline circulation. With best wishes, Fortunat -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Fortunat Joos Physics Institute, KUP, Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 44 05 e-mail: joos@climate.unibe.ch Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ 5099. 1998-09-24 17:31:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 17:31:38 +0100 (BST) from: J Mitchell subject: Re: new Thematic to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk (Keith Briffa) Hi Keith I can't read this. Plain text should work John > > > --Boundary_(ID_SP+6Fj6SyuN7yoHI9tGFvg) > Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii > Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT > > >Hi everyone > >At a 17th September meeting in London of part of the 'writing team', we > >considered the specific comments arising out of Draft 1 of the 'new' > >Thematic Proposal. I am now sending around Draft 2. This, hopefully, > >strengthens the argument for a major contribution from the atmospheric > >science community, formulated primarily through the involvement and > >coordination of UGAMP. Note that this was always the intention - it > >just wasn't written in at that stage. The Intro., Background and Research > >Programme Sections have all been modified in line with the comments > >received - and I believe successfully integrating all to a point where > >everyone should feel able to concur. You can now see that the > >resources we are requesting are UK pounds 8,000,000, not an > >unreasonable sum, given the scope and ambition of the programme. > > > >I am now of the opinion that something pretty like this draft should be > >forwarded for consideration by ESTB in early October. I know this > >is very near - but the timetable was always too short! Please, > >therefore, try to find time to go over this soon, remembering the > >remarks I forwarded to you previously about the reasons for the > >failure of the earlier proposal. The plan is for me to 'represent' this > >proposal at the ESTB meeting and if it is accepted it will then go > >forward for consideration by ASTB. Only after that stage (if accepted) > >is there any logic in thinking about the next stage of detailed planning > >- including another Town Meeting to thrash out formal organisation > >and logistics. > > > >Best wishes, > > > >Keith Briffa > > --Boundary_(ID_SP+6Fj6SyuN7yoHI9tGFvg) > Content-type: application/msword; x-mac-creator=4D535744; x-mac-type=42494E41; > name=Themed2.doc > Content-disposition: attachment; filename=Themed2.doc > Content-transfer-encoding: base64 > > 0M8R4KGxGuEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAOwADAP7/CQAGAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABAAAAWAAAAAAAAAAA > EAAAWwAAAAEAAAD+////AAAAAFkAAAD///////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > 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NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom > Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > --Boundary_(ID_SP+6Fj6SyuN7yoHI9tGFvg)-- 3720. 1998-09-28 09:28:17 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 28 Sep 1998 09:28:17 +0100 from: "Noguer, Maria" subject: FW: A quick, late comment on Agenda item one to: "scenarios," > ---------- > From: Tom Wigley > Sent: Friday, September 25, 1998 10:47 pm > To: Peter Whetton > Cc: Noguer, Maria > Subject: Re: A quick, late comment on Agenda item one > > At 10:48 AM 9/22/98 +1000, you wrote: > >Dear All, > > > >This is a brief follow-up to Mike Hulme's contribution of a few days > >ago, where he suggested that modelling groups may well be happy to use > >all four marker scenarios. I agree that this would be best, particularly > >if it was done using GCMs with a range of sensitivities. In this > >context, the group may be interested to know that CSIRO would be willing > >to undertake AOGCM simulations for all four scenarios (once converted to > >concentrations in an agreed manner) and that this could be undertaken > >within a reasonable timetable. (However, there is still interest here > >in the selection of a single scenario for use in ensemble runs.) I also > >should note that clearing up inconsistencies between scenarios and > >observed emissions over the period 1990-2000 is seen here as of vital > >importance. > > > >Peter Whetton > > > > > >Peter Whetton > >CSIRO Atmospheric Research > >Private Bag No 1, Aspendale, Vic, 3195, Australia > >Ph +61 3 9239 4535 > >Fax +61 3 9239 4444 > >Email peter.whetton@dar.csiro.au > > > > Peter, > > A fine offer, but I don't think you can do these runs. To do the > SO4, you need to have a full S cycle. Otherwise you have to > use 4-D SO4 loadings, or an albedo proxy. For our collaborative > work, using the ACACIA/NCAR scenarios (which are superior > to what is on the IPCC table, because we thought of all the > problems beforehand), we will be handing over the SO4 data > for you to use. To get these data requires running our model, > which has full S chemistry, out to 2100. For the IPCC scenarios, > someone will have to do a similar full-chem run before you could > run your model -- and, if they did such a run, IPCC would already > have what you were offering! > > There was an indication in an email from Prather that Penner might > produce the SO4 loadings. I pointed out to him that she cannot do > this because, to my knowledge, she does not have access to an > appropriate coupled model. She might think it can be done with an > equilibrium model, but this would be wrong. Think of 2050 as an > example. To get the SO4 loadings with an MLO/AGCM requires > getting the correct (or at least consistent) climate for 2050. To do > this, in turn, requires using some artificial CO2 or CO2-equiv that > would give an MLO/AGCM equilibrium climate response that simulated > the response in 2050 of an OAGCM. In fact, to really do this 'right' > one would also have to 'fake up' the SO2 emissions! We have thought > this issue through at great length here, and decided that there simply > was no adequate MLO/AGCM-based 'short cut' to getting the SO4 > loadings -- which is why we go the full-chem route. > > I presume you are going to China. If so, enjoy. I will be at the CMIP > workshop on Oct 14,15 and will be at CSIRO on the 16th. > > Cheers, Tom. > 3543. 1998-09-29 14:44:35 ______________________________________________________ cc: Bill.Eichbaum@WWFUS.ORG date: Tue, 29 Sep 1998 14:44:35 -0400 from: Adam Markham subject: An urgent request for 3 minutes of your thinking on to: wu_chandler@ccmail.pnl.gov, 100713.1311@compuserve.com, 101322.3724@compuserve.com, equilibrium@compuserve.com, wwf_pacific@compuserve.com, avinawwfmex@compuserve.com.mx, bb@ermuk.com, HGALBRAI@habaco.com, irvingm@ibm.net, yurikaa@ibm.net, malcolm@larva.forestry.utoronto.ca, wwfsarpo@maial.pci.co.zw, corcuera@mail.retina.ar, croque@mozcom.com, hedger@mycos.demon.co.uk, MKENBER@natura.ecuanex.net.ec, wwfmrae@ozemail.com.au, path@pinus.env.duke.edu, VEIT@POSTBOX.CSI.CUNY.EDU, Q.cronk@rbge.org.uk, rik.leemans@rivm.nl, rob.swart@rivm.nl, tmathew@sdalt.ernet.in, mnhvz055@sivm.si.edu, peter@sn.no, goldtoad@sol.racsa.co.cr, smjudd@sun.ihep.ac.cn, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, hellmessen@wwf.de, Rapf@wwf.de, singer@wwf.de, lgjensen@wwf.dk, garo@wwf.org.br, ulisses@wwf.org.br, pdover@wwfcanada.org, Alan.Hamilton@wwfnet.org, aquarles@wwfnet.org, Gordon.Shepherd@wwfnet.org, JLoh@wwfnet.org, kpanji@wwfnet.org, LLacerda@wwfnet.org, NMabey@wwfnet.org, rmarsh@wwfnet.org, smaginnis@wwfnet.org, SPullen@wwfnet.org, sschone@wwfnet.org, tlong@wwfnet.org, ucollier@wwfnet.org, imacdon@wwfsa.org.za, bhutan@WWFUS.ORG, Francis.Grant-Suttie@WWFUS.ORG, Henri.Nsanjama@WWFUS.ORG, jennifer.morgan@WWFUS.ORG, Kate.Newman@WWFUS.ORG, Kim.Doyle@WWFUS.ORG, Marijke.Unger@WWFUS.ORG, Michael.Ross@WWFUS.ORG, mingma.sherpa@WWFUS.ORG, Richard.Mott@WWFUS.ORG, pfrost@zimbix.uz.zw A really quick (and urgent) note to ask you to devote a few minutes of thought about what are some of the best examples of climate trends or impacts linked to climate change. What I'm really looking for is your top ten, or three, or one idea(s) as to what could be highlighted from your region (or elsewhere) on a world map. Is enhanced sea-level rise happening; are fires increasing; animal and plant distributions changing. WWF-US is teaming up with 5 other NGOs (Sierra Club, EDF, NRDC, UCS and World Resources Institute) to produce a poster showing convincing evidence of change related to global warming. We have a wealth of information from North America and pretty good stuff on glaciers and sea-level rise, but we need to get more on biodiversity impacts, infectious diseases, drought, changes in seasons or other, less obvious changes. The criteria for inclusion are that the effects could be strongly related to observed climatic changes as outlined by the IPCC, and that they can be substantiated. So the long-term rainfall deficit in parts of southern Africa and associated events or changes would qualify, as would accelerated glacier melt in Canada, tree-line change in the Alps, sea-level rise on the U.S. east coast or birds nesting earlier in the UK. A big hurricane hitting Florida is not an example. I've attached a more detailed list of criteria and some of the examples already under consideration. If you could suggest some good local examples that we in the US have probably not heard about, I would be VERY VERY grateful. If you could do it before Monday October 5th, I will be forever in your debt. Best wishes, Adam Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\CCMAP.DOC" 525. 1998-09-29 15:47:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Sep 29 15:47:15 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: reference to: "Raymond S. Bradley" Dear Ray thanks a million for the reference. I am sending the proposal for your files. It is rather a large file ( only because of the Figures - the text is only 9 pages total ) so I am sending it zipped. If you have a problem reading it - assuming you wish to- I'll fax it. As for the reference to your book , I still await this as I am supposedly reviewing it for The Holocene. It is of course comforting to know that I will be able to give it the rich praise that I know it will deserve. Best wishes to you and I look forward to sharing a good bottle ( no , a very good bottle) of red wine with you - perhaps even at NERC's expense! Keith At 06:22 PM 9/28/98 -0400, you wrote: >I sent the attached to sholt@nerc...today as an attachment. Will mail the >original tomorrow. Good luck with this! >ray > >Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\briffa-nerc.doc" > >Raymond S. Bradley >Professor and Head of Department >Department of Geosciences >University of Massachusetts >Amherst, MA 01003-5820 >Tel: 413-545-2120 >Fax: 413-545-1200 >Climate Lab: 413-545-0659 >Climate Lab Web Site: > >Chairman IGBP-PAGES >Scientific Steering Committee >Baerenplatz 2 >CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland >Tel: +41-31-312-3133 >Fax: +41-31-312-3168 >EMail: pages@pages.unibe.ch >PAGES Web Site: > 3378. 1998-10-01 12:17:24 ______________________________________________________ cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, ray bradley , mann@snow.geo.umass.edu date: Thu, 1 Oct 1998 12:17:24 -0700 from: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" subject: Re: climate of the last millennia... to: Phil Jones Hi Phil - thanks for your detailed reply to my email. I look forward to working with you and the rest of the gang to really improve the state of paleo contributions to the detection/attribution issue. The earlier we get a small group together, the better, so I suggest we try to take you up on the AMS add-on idea. It would be ideal to have a 1 to 1.5day mtg in Boulder since we have many of the needed perspectives (ice core, coral, seds, data, etc) here. What would be the best dates for you (and Keith - I'm hoping he'll be up for this too). We can find the extra $$ to get folks to Boulder and have a quality time (do you ski?). Once we set the dates with you (PLEASE SEND FAVORED DATES), Mike and Ray, we can set the agenda. The main thing is that it would set the stage for the extra degree of data sharing we'll need before the planned Santorini mtg (still no dates - please bug Jean-Claude!!). Sound ok? As for the data from your paper, I'd like to get them up with the data from the other studies on the WDC www site asap. (JUST LET ME KNOW HOW!) The White House is interested in knowing the state-of-the-art, and if we can get everything together at one www site (including data and figs), I think I can get some needed visibility for the paleo perspective. You probably know this, but Henry Pollack's Borehole view of things (similar conclusions to the other recent papers) is about to appear in Science. Although each proxy and method does have it's limitations and biases, the multiproxy view is compelling with regard to the patterns of temp change over the past several centuries. The IPCC next time around should be much stronger than last on the paleo side of things (although still not as good as it can get!). Of course, I'll continue to work with Mike and Ray to get the rest of the individual series out into the public domain. Santorini should be the goal - not alowwed on the island without coughing up data first! Aloha and thanks again! Peck Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program National Geophysical Data Center 325 Broadway E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6172 fax: 303-497-6513 jto@ngdc.noaa.gov For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries, PLEASE USE: Dr. Jonathan Overpeck NOAA National Geophysical Data Center 3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136 Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6160 4597. 1998-10-01 12:52:08 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Oct 1 12:52:08 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: comments on Thematic bid to: J.Lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk,njs5@cam.ac.uk,p.j.valdes@reading.ac.uk,sfbtett@meto.gov.uk Dear all, I am passing on some comments on the proposal made by 'a modeller' via John Lowe. By now you should have the draft of the proposal that Neville will circulate to the ESTB . There was not time to do much more than some small corrections and to put in a GANTT chart. Neville says the size of the overall text is not a problem now and if it gets further , obviously, things will need changing again . Neville also tells me that I should not now attend the ESTB meeting , which is a relief because I have to go to a PAGES meeting in Belgium next week anyway. So below are my replies and below that is John's message . I don't have time to cut and paste the appropriate comments and answers so you best just list the whole thing off. Keith John, Thanks for the comments . I have been through them and made some small changes. I don't think that anything more is warranted at this time - especially given the fact that Neville needs it now. It is a bit long but he says this is not vital at the moment and I would rather over emphasise some points now rather than cut lots of stuff out before getting everyone else's say so. As for your modeller's comments ( I will call him/her M for now) 1. I don't what M is saying here. What fuxes precisely? We are not proposing to use palaeo-data to take the place of , or validate every possible feature or process within the GCM. We wish to produce data and methods with which to test the realism of important features or outputs of an existing model and aid in the interpretation of predictions made with it, and to show how it needs inprovement.The project is about finding out what we can do and can't do with the existing Palaeodata along these lines, and about going and getting the best data to do more. Some data will allow us to compare seasonal variability e.g. tree-ring data show interannual patterns of summer changes in high latitudes, or moisture patterns across North America that can be directly compared with model output. These may not show the full amplitude of regional mean variability over centuries . Other data may only have decadal resolution, but if they capture low-frequency changes with good fidelity ,such as in the behaviour of the NAO over centuries, they would be invaluable. 2. If M thinks we are trying to drive a GCM with palaeo-data , then this is not sensible. Possibly such data could be used to constrain experimental runs to different extents, an issue I know is of interest to some groups (such as Hans von Storch in Germany) but again this would need to be carefully formulatd in terms of the spatial , seasonal and timescale limitations of the various proxies. As for the UK trying to do what the interbnational community are doing -the project is intended to allow UK workers to participate in what is clearly a priority need. Our community has much to offer this effort but it needs the sort of initiative we are proposing to enable it to deliver. Also, there is no restriction on using non UK data. On the contrary, the project should support initiatives in gathering, screening, and exploiting good data from anywhere, provided they match the criteria for joint data/model experiments. I don't understand the reference to NOAA. 3. The whole point is that the UK has already got one of the most advanced predictive tools in the world i.e. The Hadley Centre Unified Model. This is not to say that it is good enough. Hence, the continuing work to improve it. Meanwhile, it is being used to inform the world about future warming and patterns of coming climate change. We can help reduce the uncertainties in these predictions. By all means someone can go ahead and develop limited-area models where these contibute to our understanding of the GCM, but such development for its own sake ( or for predicting local changes) would be ruled out of this work and anyway, it would need to be driven by a GCM. 4. There is no need to ' approach .. CLIVAR..to establish what the UK could do '. The proposal represents exactly part of what CLIVAR has said needs doing - in its published Implementation Plan. This is clearly stated in the document. Also, who does M think CLIVAR is/are anyway? Surely it is a group of internationally collaborating scientists that include people at the Hadley Centre and members of the UK palaeo-community. As for 'distinctive', where else in the world is there a formal prgramme of coordinated model/proxy data projects? 5. Such a model falls within the scope of this proposal, provided it can be justified and shown to be testable with palaeo-data . Incidently, the Hadley Centre has such a model. Restricting the whole theme to such an end is ,however, going to tell us nothing about the validity of future predictions of global changes , and ( as I said above) must anyway be driven by a GCM. 6. I do not understand this question. 7. Again,(see points 1+2 ) , what inputs does M mean? We are not trying to drive a model , except with additional external forcings gleaned from palaeo-data. True, there may be problems avoiding circularity in distinquihing cause and effect in such work, but this is a different matter. I am happy to discuss these points further , but only if we get to a stage where this is worth doing. The proposal might not get past ESTB and ASTB. Frankly, the points raised by M do not in my judgement suggest changes in the current draft. If even several of the rest of you think so then we can look at them again later. I am passing these comments on to Simon , Paul , Nick and Neville to give them the chance to comment but I don't think they should go wider for now. thanks again for your thoughts and help Keith Dear Keith I have been through the PRESCIENT document (I am not too taken by this name, but cannot think of a better one at present - how about PRISM - Palaeoclimatic Research and Integrated earth System Modelling ??). Some minor details: 1st line, para 2, change 'demands' to requires', as the word 'demands' could be read as verb or noun, so that the sentence threw me for a while. para 3, l.6: "..resolution than AVAILABLE hitherto." ?? under 'General Scientific Context', para 1, sentence 2. I found the construction of this to be cumbersome. How about "The reality of climate change on many timescales is now widely appreicated, as is the need to quantify the different 'natural' and anthropogenic factors that are believed to 'force' the climate system, an understanding of which holds the key to successful prediction of future climate changes." Or something like that ? Same section, para 2: "To meet these challenges ...." Which ? The sentence follows on from consideration of "..the only prospect...". Are you referring to (a) the prospect of the challenges of model construction, (b) identifying the important parameters to be included in the model model, or (c) something else ? Section headed "Background and Potential of Current Pal.. Research" para 1: palaeoceanography (not -oo- as in your sp.) para 2. grammatical blip in l. 8 "UK scientists have, and will, make ...." is grammatically incorrect because if you take out the "and will", the construction is wrong. It needs to be "...have made, and will make..." General It is getting tighter, especially in emphasising the need for REAL co--operation, from design stage onwards, between the modelling and palaeo- communities. It is, however, too long, since the max ed = 6 pages at font size 10. In my view there is a little repetition or over-emphasis of certain points, and I would recommend omission (or serious reduction) of the following sections: 1st para under 'Research Programme' - this does not seem necessary to me. Much of the penulttimate para (with bullet points) at the end of the same section, from "Within the above themes....." down to "climate and vegetation interactions, etc." I would expand, a little, or emphasise in bold, the final sentence in this section "Each proposal should test a hypothesis...." This seems to me to be vital to what is being proposed. Under "Relevance to UK and Internat...." Could the first para here be cut right down ? Under DELIVERABLES include a statement about giving appropriate advice to UK government offices and to international collaboration programmes concerned with global climate change and its environmental consequences. The deliverables should indicate to whom the deliverables are being delivered. ___________________________________________________- Finally (and I hope you do not object), I took the liberty of showing the document to a numerical modeller, IN STRICTEST CONFIDENCE - who wishes to remain anonymous for the time being. I simply wanted to see how a modeller would repond to the document,. I will precis his comments. You may be able to rebuff some of these outright; on the other hand you might find them of value, and use them to tighten up arguments, with the help of UGAMP and Hadley personnel. At least you will be prepared if the same comments come from ESTB members or from external referees. His main comments were as follows: 1) The perception from reading the document is that the fundamental premise is flawed because the palaeo-comunity will not be able to deliver time-series data at scales appropriate to represent fluxes in the models, which are based on 'real time' and can represent seasonal fluxes (not the annual to decadal scales aimed for AT BEST in the palaeo-data). 2) Why is the UK community (apparently) trying to do what the international community is now collaborating to do, on a huge scale ? Can the UK palaeo-data community hope to provide data-sets that are anywhere near adequate for 'driving' global models ??? Surely globally-spread data are going to be needed, and will the UK community seek to procure them ? Or will we simply work in tandem with NOAA etc. ?? 3) If the UK community wants its own stand-alone modelling programme, why does it not go for a limited-area model, capable of dealing with transient climate states (which is a major need), cf. developments under way in Germany and France, rather than attempt to spread its expertise (perhaps unwisely) over the globe ? 4) At the very least, an approach should be made to CLIVAR or other global modelling groups to establish what the UK community could do that would be distinctive AND meet a perceived need. Links to, and an established dialogue with, the international collaborative programmes should be essential first steps, clearly spelled out in the document. 5) Given the perceived importance of the North Atlantic in the global climate machine, and given the UK's known lead in studying the N Atlantic region (and recent investment by NERC in studying the region, such as NEAPACC), why not focus on developing a nested regional climate model for the N Atlantic which will link in to an established GCM ? 6) What is the numerical stochasticity which should be used for for palaeo-conditions, and how will that be defined ? 7) Are UK scientists able to provide inputs at the same scale of resolution and detail for all spatial fields included in the model AND provide the validation data-sets at the same time ? There are other queries, concerning the degree of 'determinism' in the models or 'palaeo-models' and (mis-)match between palaeo-fields and model-fields, that I am not equipped to deal with. I therefore have some concerns about how the document might be receivd by external (overseas) referees. I assume it will go to quite a number of external referees, in view of the sum of money being sought. These seem to me to be good questions (though some may need to be clarified a bit), and if we have good answers to them, then fine. We can go to ESTB with a spring in our step. It would be dangerous to press forward, however, if we feel uneasy about how well we could respond, because we could well be slaughtered by external referees. Sorry to end so negatively, and I hope my pet modeller has got it all wrong, (he is not a climate modeller) and that ESTB can be convinced that our case is a sound one. On reflection, and after receiving these comments from the modeller, it does look as though what he have produced is somehting which makes the best of what the UK currently has to offer (a climate modelling centre with a sophisticated global model and a palaeo-community engaged in diverse research programmes that have not traditionally been tied into the modelling efforts). Is the combination of these two teams what the international community NEEDS right now to help solve some of the pressing problems ? The external referees will tell us ! Do Hadley personnel have a handle on this ???? You have done a sterling job with the document. I just wonder whether we are attempting to bite off more than we can chew, and whether referees might also think so. I cannot help feeling that a nested, regional model might provide a much tighter focus, where we can test, at various timescales, the degree to which, for example, the North Atlantic circulation pattern is active or passive in the overall process which leads to abrupt climate shift (and model effects on the UK or NW Europe). Could we lead the way in developing the most sophisticated, integrated regional model, which can be incorporated into GCMs ? Could it be that other major bodies could also develop similar models for other parts of the global system (Southern Ocean; China Monsoon system; Arctic Ocean; etc.), and that this is one way of eventually leading to very sophisticated global models ? Or am I talking twaddle ?? John 4688. 1998-10-01 18:05:02 ______________________________________________________ cc: fritz.schweingruber@wsl.ch date: Thu Oct 1 18:05:02 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: increasing tree biomass results to: joos@climate.unibe.ch Dear Fortunat I don't know if you remember , but some time ago you and Tom visited us at the Climatic Research Unit and you and I discussed some work I was doing with Fritz Schweingruber's tree-ring densitometric data base . It contains annual measurements of spring and summer radial tree growth and corresponding mean density values. The data represent nearly 400 sites, mainly around the northern boreal forest. I now have sufficient output to write up what I believe will be a very significant paper showing that growth has increased greatly during the 19th century - but perhaps more significantly it levelled off after the middle of the 20th century. To complicate issues it seems that this is not so for very young trees (under 50) . The replication of these young tree data is very low but it seems that basal area increment and maximum latewood density increase remarkably in the last few decades up to the 1980s when the data run out. The maximum density data decline steadily from 1950 onwards . So the picture is not simple but I believe the data show overall evidence of increasing tree biomass in the northern boreal forest from the middle of the last century to about the middle of this . Carbon sequestration probably did likewise in these regions. The question is : what are the implications for carbon uptake, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and past and future climate . The curves we have are relative indices. We also need to estimate absolute carbon fluxes associated with this phenomenon, probably by using published estimates of carbon in different components of the boreal forest. Also I would like to compare our Cross Sectional Mass (a combination of the Basal Area Increment and mean wood density) data timeseries (from A.D.1700 on) with reconstructed changes in the estimated northern terrestrial carbon sink, based on your carbon isotope interpretations. I am sending just a few plots and a Table by post to illustrate some of these points. I intend to write this up and would appreciate you opinion - and ideally your input. One or two joint papers is what I have in mind - perhaps one (with me and Fritz as first authors) showing the relative changes, one (with you first) dealing with the carbon implications (and perhaps another with Sarah Raper looking at the climate implications of the concentration changes we come up with, using a simple upwelling diffusion energy balance model). What do you think? At least look at the Figures I send but please treat them as confidential. I know you are a busy guy. If you can't do anything , I would still appreciate your opinion. Incidentally, though I will only send illustrations of overall geographically-averaged data, remember that different large sub-regions (e.g. central Siberia, Eastern North America etc.)all seem to show the general dramatic increase in radial growth in the last century. In one or two very restricted areas where we have long data (e.g. eastern Siberia ) the increase is unprecedented since 1200 or 1400 A.D. I will post the Figures tomorrow. Best wishes Keith 4000. 1998-10-02 10:51:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Oct 2 10:51:37 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: INTAS,Vienna and Norwich to: stepan@ipae.uran.ru,evag@ifor.krasnoyarsk.su Dear Stepan and Eugene ( and Fritz), I have now receivd contracts from The EC for the INTAS work. I have received the real signed Power Of Attorney form from Stepan , but not from Eugene. It seems I must have both . I am a bit reluctant to forge Eugene's signature! We will need to think about how the money should be handled . Also please all go back and look at the document I wrote and be sure you are happy with the committment. The most important new aspect is the biomass work and I think new , or additional collections need to be taken to look at the growth of young , medium and old trees separately through time. We have very few recent young and middle age trees in recent years. We could consider using data along north/south transects (how goes the status of the Siberian Transect?). Also, I must go to Vienna in 2 weeks to present the results of ADVANCE10K . We have a meeting of this group here in Norwich in November but I am very sorry that I have no funds to invite you to attend this. Could you afford a meeting some time , perhaps in a neutral spot where we all (including Fritz) might get together to talk about the INTAS work and future EC work? A state of the art report of progress of the Taimyr and Yamal work is needed very soon ( by email),also so that I can report on it in Vienna and Norwich. I am also writing a paper for PAGES for the book of the conference in London that Rashit attended. I will include a report of both projects , hopefully with some Figures of the data distribution or plots of the some version of the curves themselves ( along with others at high latitudes) . I would appreciate new copies of the full dated raw data sets , in Tucson compact format, to produce some curves in a standard style. I would like to compare changing variance through time at different wave lengths and perhaps co spectra. As for money on ADVANCE10K, I initially was awarded 50,000ECU to be split between Krasnoyarsk and Ekaterinburg. Because of exchange rate changes , which have gone against us continually since the start of the project, this is now worth between 0.2 and 0.25 LESS than it did then. I have looked at the remaining money and I think I can give you each a final payment of between 4000 and 4500 US dollars. This is not definate - but it is pretty definate! I hope this means you may be able to do this year's fieldwork. We need to think also about how and if this should be coordinted with the INTAS work - but maybe not? How about some discussion by email regarding these points. I look forward to a quick reply. my best wishes Keith 4123. 1998-10-06 11:06:20 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 11:06:20 -0400 (EDT) from: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu subject: Re: climate of the last millennia... to: coleje@spot.colorado.edu, drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu, jto@ngdc.noaa.gov, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, luckman@sscl.uwo.ca, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu Dear all, I just wanted to thank Keith for his comments. They are right on target. There is indeed, as many of us are aware, at least one key player in the modeling community that has made overly dismissive statements about the value of proxy data as late, because of what might be argued as his/her own naive assessment/analysis of these data. This presents the danger of just the sort of backlash that Keith warns of, and makes all the more pressing the need for more of a community-wide strategizing on our part. I think the workshop in Jan that Peck is hosting will go far in this regard, and I personally am really looking forward to it! cheers, mike. _______________________________________________________________________ Michael E. Mann Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Geosciences Morrill Science Center University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu (normal) memann@titan.oit.umass.edu (attachments) Web: http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/mike Phone: (413) 545-9573 FAX: (413) 545-1200 4772. 1998-10-06 12:53:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 06 Oct 1998 12:53:12 +0100 from: "Jenkins, Geoff" subject: FW: coP4 handout to: "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" > -----Original Message----- > From: Jenkins, Geoff > Sent: 06 October 1998 09:55 > To: 'a.white@ite.ac.uk'; 'nwa1@soton.ac.uk'; 'parrym@aol.com'; > 'robert14@mdx.ac.uk'; 't.mcmichael@LSHTM.ac.uk' > Subject: coP4 handout > > Below is the text for the introduction, summary and further info sections > of the CoP4 handout. I would be grateful if you would let me have > corrections etc as soon as possible. If you want me to put in a website > address please let me know it, otherwise I will omit it. > The draft of your text and diagrams is currently with DETR for final > agreeement. > > Thanks for all your help > <> Geoff Jenkins > > Introduction > > Recognising the threat of future climate change and its impacts, the UK > Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions established in > 1997 a series of linked research projects which predict changes in climate > over the next decades and assess the potential global impact in key > sectors. These sectors covered natural ecosystems, water resources, food > supply and coastal areas. The first report from this study was published > in December 1997 as "Climate change and its impacts". > > Since then, the Hadley Centre has generated a new scenario of climate > change based on predictions from a new model, HadCM3. The scenario assumes > an increase in greenhouse gases according to the IPCC "business-as-usual" > emissions projections, without changes in sulphate aerosols (which make > little difference to the global temperature rise but could affect regional > patterns of change). As in 1997, assessment models have been used to look > at the impacts arising from this new scenario, and the range of sectors > has been extended to include human health - specifically, malaria. > > This report can be considered as an update of the one issued in December > 1997, and much of the background, assumptions and caveats discussed in > that report are still current. The contributions to research from the UK > Public Meteorological Service programme are fully acknowledged. > > Summary > > * The 1997/98 El Nino was the most extreme on record. Global mean > surface temperature in 1998 is likley to exceed that in 1997 and be the > highest since global instrumental records began. > > * Predictions of climate change have been made using an improved climate > model without arbitrary corrections. IPCC-projected increases in > greenhouse gas emissions result in a warming of about 3°C over the next > 100 years. Based on a revised projection of human-made sulphur emissions, > sulphate aerosols make little difference to this global prediction. > > * Comparisons of model simulations and observations, based on new > statistical techniques, indicate that human-made made greenhouse gases > have contributed substantially to global warming over the past 50 years. > Initial results also show that sensitivity of the climate model to changes > in greenhouse gases is not dissimilar to that of the real climate system. > > * The new climate model has a better representation of ocean currents. > Increases in greenhouse gases result in a slowing down of the North > Atlantic ocean circulation, although not as rapidly as with some other > models. > > * Based on the new climate scenario for the 2050s, tropical forests will > die back in many areas of northern S America. In other areas of the world > tropical grassland will be transformed to desert or temperate grassland. > > * Vegetation will absorb CO2 at the rate of 2-3 GtC/y in the first half > of the next century. Due to vegetation dieback, this will later become a > source of 2 GtC/y and will enhance CO2 build up in the atmosphere. > > * Water resource stresses in many of the poorest countries will be > enhanced by climate change. Due to climate change alone, some 66 million > extra people will live in countries with water stress, and some 170 > million people will live in countries which are extremely stressed. > > * Climate change is expected to increase crop yields in high and > mid-latitude countries such as Canada and Europe, but lead to decreases in > lower latitudes. The food system will accommodate to regional variations > in yields at the global level, with production, prices and risk of hunger > being relatively unaffected (Matt: is 30M more at risk of hunger > unaffected???). > > * Some regions, particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics, will be most > adversely affected, experiencing marked reductions in yield, decreases in > production and increases in the risk of hunger. In Africa, for example, X > (Matt - absolute number pse - instead of the 18%) million additional > people will be at risk of hunger due to climate change alone by the 2050s. > > > * The predicted 21cm sea level rise by the 2050s, and assuming no changes > in coastal protection, some 50 million additional people will be at risk > annually. Even with evolving protection sea level rise will each year put > an additional 20 million people at risk of flooding. South and south-east > Asia are most vulnerable. > > * Growth in population alone will increase the number of people at risk > of malaria; climate change will add to this increase, particularly in > areas where currently the disease is not endemic. > > Further information > Further information on the topics covered in this report can be obtained > from the contacts below. > > Climate change science > * Dr Geoff Jenkins, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, > The Met.Office: gjjenkins@meto.gov.uk > > Website:www.meto.gov.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html > > * Dr Mike Hulme, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia: > m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > > Website: www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link > > > Impacts on natural vegetation > * Dr Andy White, NERC Institute of Terrestrial Ecology: > a.white@ite.ac.uk > > Website: ??? > > > Impacts on coastal areas > * Dr Robert Nicholls, University of Middlesex: r.nicholls@mdx.ac.uk > > Website: ???? > > > Impacts on food supply > Professor Martin Parry, Jackson Environmental Institute, University > College London: parrym@aol.com > > Website: ???? > > Impacts on water resources > Dr Nigel Arnell, University of Southampton: n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk > > Website: ??? > > Impacts on Human Health > Professor Tony McMichael, London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine: > t.mcmichael@LSHTM.ac.uk > > Website: ???? > > > > > > > > > > > Content-disposition: attachment; filename=COP4SUM Content-Location: ATT-0-BBD4ED23F95CD211AC0F00104B428DD2-C OP4SUM Content-type: application/octet-stream; name="COP4SUM" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\COP4SUM" 2490. 1998-10-06 13:38:33 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue Oct 6 13:38:33 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: climate of the last millennia... to: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" , p.jones@uea.ac.uk, mann@snow.geo.umass.edu, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu, drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu, coleje@spot.colorado.edu, Brian Luckman Hi Peck et al. A little late but I'd like to put in my twopence worth regarding your original message and Phil's reply. I have been tied up with a load of stuff so don't interpret my lack of speedy response as a lack of interest in these matters. My first comment is that I agree with all of your general remarks and with your implied rebuke to Phil that we should be very wary of seeming to dam certain proxies and over hype others when we all know that there are real strengths and weaknesses associted with them all. The truth is that all of this group are well aware of this and of the associated fact that even within each of these sub-disciplines e.g. Dendro, coral etc. there is a large range of value , or concern with the external usage of our data. However, my own and Phil's concerns are motivated ,like yourself, by the outside world's inability to appreciate these points and the danger that we will all be seen as uncritical or niave about the real value of proxy data. The rationale for the recent Jones et al paper, and some things that I have written in the past is to inform would be users , particularly the modellers, that there are critical questions to be addressed about how the palaeo-data are best used in a 'detection' or 'model validation' context. Many in the palaeo-community understand these issues , but perhaps there has been some reluctance to air them in sufficient depth or in the right situations where they will be heard/seen by those people who now seek to use the data . I believe that many of the modellers , having been blissfully unaware for years of the need to work with the palaeo-community, are now expecting too much . This carries the danger of a backlash as they undertake simple assessments of the palaeo-series and conclude that they are all of very little use. The problem is that as we try to inform them we may get the balance between valueable self criticism and scientific flagellation wrong. The more so when the whip is seemingly aimed at others! There is no doubt though, that many palaeo- types are not concerned with the 'bigger issues' of climate change , so it is up to those who do ,such as this group, to try to sort out some sensible approach to how we do explore the good and bad ,fairly, in our collective data and how we present this to the outside world. The meeting you propose is a good way forward.If he is already not included, I also urge you to invite Ed Cook. I hate cold feet and I don't ski so I vote for anywhere away from snow. To answer the question about the degradation in tree-ring chronology confidence back in time - yes, we ( that is several of us in tree rings , and rising out of them, in average temperature or rainfall series, have suggested a basis for quantifying chronology error as a function of series replication and time-dependent chages in the correlations of the series that go to form the mean chronology. The problem is tricky because the error is timescale ( i.e frequency) dependent also. This is just the chronology. Calculating confidence limits on reconstructions derived from one or more chronologies must take account of the regression error (again likely to be timescale dependent) while incorporating the additional uncertainty associated with the chronology. When the reconstructions are derived using a spatial transfer function ( such as in canonical correlation or our similar Orthogonal Spatial Regression technique )the reconstruction at each point in the predictand network has some ,different, uncertainty relating to the error in each predictor series and the magnitude of its influence in the specific regression equation relating to that point. Finally, as regards this issue, if you have detrended or high-pass filtered the original predictor series in some way (i.e. tree-ring standardisation) , you have some potential long-timescale uncertainty around the final reconstruction which can not be represented by any analyses of the remaining prdictors or their association with a relatively short instrumental predictand series. I have a half drafted paper on this which I intended to submit to Tree-Ring Bulletin - perhaps one day! Your question about Jasper, the sample depth, in my opinion , IS responsible for the early high values. So don't put much faith in the early warmth. We have devised a simple method of scaling down the variance in average series to take account of the inflated variance that occurs when a reduced number of series are averaged - such as at the start of this chronology . We used this in our recent Nature paper looking at a possible volcanic signal in the density data averaged over the northern network. Ed has incorporated this in the latest version of his super tree-ring standardisation/chronolgy construction program , but it was not used in the Jasper work . I agree that we must be careful not to appear to be knocking other proxies- even if this is not intended . We must also be explicit about where problems lie and in suggesting the ways to overcome them. I for one do not think the world revolves only around trees. The only sensible way forward is through interpretation of multiple proxies and we need much more work comparing and reconciling the different evidence they hold. Let's have more balance in the literature and more constructive dialogue /debate between ourselves. Keith At 02:38 PM 9/14/98 -0700, Jonathan T. Overpeck wrote: >Hi Phil et al. - just read the Jones et al. Holocene paper (v. 8, p. >456-471) and had a couple comments/questions.... > >1) nice paper > >2) would you like to archive the reconstructions at the WDC-A for Paleo?? >It would be great to add them to existing recent ones (Cook et al. - >drought; Mann et al. NH temp; Briffa et al. NH temp, Overpeck et al. Arctic >temp). It would be ideal to get each of the 17 proxy records PLUS the >hemispheric recons. > >3) regarding proxies, I wonder how much of the "quality" issue regarding >ice cores and some other remote proxy records is due to there not being any >instrumental stations near them (and at the same altitude)? Also, with >respect to coral records, I get the feeling most in the coral community now >think there is something "funny" about long Galapagos record (age model, >maybe more - I think a new record is being generated). Also, many coral 18O >records (e.g., New Caledonia) are influenced by both temp and salinity >variations. This is a solid reason why the fit of such a record to temp >won't be as good as you'd like (or as good as a buffo dendro record). I >think Terry Quinn is generating the trace metal data to sort temp out. >Lastly, I've now seen a number of coral records (most not published, but >Tarawa is an example I think) where the proxy does as well as local >instrumental data (in this case ppt) in getting the regional signal, AND >the local instrumental record only go back to the war. I'm guessing, just >between us, that ENSO recons based on proxies will soon be better than >instrumental ones before 1950 - not just before 1850! In fact, I'd bet on >it (using some of the money Ray still owes Julie!). Thus, I worry that it >might not be wise to dismiss reconstructions on a proxy basis, particularly >since trees lack one important trait - they don't work for all parts of the >globe. > >4) About trees.... (Keith are you still reading?? - I sent this to Ed and >Brian too, since they might have insights). Has anyone examined how a >tree-ring recon degrades as a function of sample size back in time. I >always see the quality of dendro recons cast as GREAT vs.other proxies (and >they are) based on comparison with instrumental records. But, the dendro >records usually have the best sample replication in this same instrumental >period, and then tail off back in time. For example, Brian's Jasper recon >has a sample depth of ca 28 trees in the last century, but drops off to ca. >5 in the 12th century and 1 (?) in the 11th century. The "quality" of the >recon must degrade too?? In contrast, some non-dendro reconstructions may >not verify as well as dendro vs the instrumental record, but they might not >degrade with time either since the sample density doesn't change with time. >Thus, could it be that at some point back in time, the dendro records >degrade to the same quality (or worse) than other proxies??? > >5) Talking specifically about Jasper, it is interesting that the 20th >century is as warm or warmer than everything in the last 1000 years EXCEPT >before ca. 1110 AD. Since the sample depth before this time is 5 or less, >how much faith should we put in those warmer than modern temps?? > >6) I went to the trouble of all this mainly to A) get some feedback (and >data into the WDC) and also B) to highlight that we need to extra careful >in judging the quality of one proxy over or under another. If a well known >group of paleo scientists suggest that, for example, corals are not that >useful, then it might mean more years before we have a mutli-century >record of tropical climate variability. I think it is clear that each proxy >has limitations (and I like the table 2 idea of Jones et al), but the real >need is to understand that each record (not just each proxy) has pros and >cons, and that wise use requires knowing these pros/cons. Some coral, ice >core and sediment records are no doubt better than some dendro records >(also, for example, with respect to reconstructing low frequency variations >in climate). I'm NOT trying to dis tree-rings, but rather to suggest more >balance in what we all say in the literature. > >7) Lastly, I think there is a need to have a small workshop to put together >an expanded version of Jones' et al. table 2, and, more importantly, to set >some guidelines for data generators in terms of the kinds of data and meta >data that need to be archived to ensure best use of the data (for example, >information of the nature of the climate signal and what might bias it - >like the salinity effect on a coral record or method of standardization on >a dendro record). Also, we need guidelines on what info should be archived >with a climate reconstruction (for example, are error bars available; if >not, why not - there are often good reasons, but the interdisicplinary user >might not get it). It might be best if the database could be upgreaded, so >that users would know, for example, that a proxy record or recon they want >to use has some recently discovered problem or verification. > >I've asked Mike Mann if he'd like to help put together such a workshop with >me, and I think I have some US funding for it - it would be small, with >just a couple folks from each proxy plus some folks like Phil and Mike who >are well-know users of paleo data. Like the idea?? > >Thx for reading this far. Cheers, Peck > >Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck >Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program >National Geophysical Data Center >325 Broadway E/GC >Boulder, CO 80303 > >tel: 303-497-6172 >fax: 303-497-6513 >jto@ngdc.noaa.gov > >For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries, >PLEASE USE: > >Dr. Jonathan Overpeck >NOAA National Geophysical Data Center >3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136 >Boulder, CO 80303 >tel: 303-497-6160 > > > > > 1975. 1998-10-06 17:02:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 6 Oct 1998 17:02:39 -0700 from: "Jonathan T. Overpeck" subject: Re: climate of the last millennia... to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith - thx for the good comments. As Mike responded, I agree you hit the nail on the head w.r.t. backlash potential. About that mtg in January, although I can't promise snow-free land surface in Boulder, we can avoid outdoor activities. Assuming you can get a cheapish ticket, we'll find the $$ to get you over if Jan 15-16th is a doable time for you (right after AMS - the dates chosen by Phil). Ed is here next week and I'll make sure he is invited. We'll keep it small - just a couple per proxy, and get more info to you soon. thx! Peck >Hi Peck et al. > A little late but I'd like to put in my twopence worth regarding >your original message and Phil's reply. I have been tied up with a load of >stuff so don't interpret my lack of speedy response as a lack of interest >in these matters. > My first comment is that I agree with all of your general remarks >and with your implied rebuke to Phil that we should be very wary of seeming >to dam certain proxies and over hype others when we all know that there are >real strengths and weaknesses associted with them all. The truth is that >all of this group are well aware of this and of the associated fact that >even within each of these sub-disciplines e.g. Dendro, coral etc. there is >a large range of value , or concern with the external usage of our data. >However, my own and Phil's concerns are motivated ,like yourself, by the >outside world's inability to appreciate these points and the danger that we >will all be seen as uncritical or niave about the real value of proxy data. >The rationale for the recent Jones et al paper, and some things that I have >written in the past is to inform would be users , particularly the >modellers, that there are critical questions to be addressed about how the >palaeo-data are best used in a 'detection' or 'model validation' context. >Many in the palaeo-community understand these issues , but perhaps there >has been some reluctance to air them in sufficient depth or in the right >situations where they will be heard/seen by those people who now seek to >use the data . I believe that many of the modellers , having been >blissfully unaware for years of the need to work with the palaeo-community, >are now expecting too much . This carries the danger of a backlash as they >undertake simple assessments of the palaeo-series and conclude that they >are all of very little use. The problem is that as we try to inform them we >may get the balance between valueable self criticism and scientific >flagellation wrong. The more so when the whip is seemingly aimed at others! >There is no doubt though, that many palaeo- types are not concerned with >the 'bigger issues' of climate change , so it is up to those who do ,such >as this group, to try to sort out some sensible approach to how we do >explore the good and bad ,fairly, in our collective data and how we present >this to the outside world. The meeting you propose is a good way >forward.If he is already not included, I also urge you to invite Ed Cook. > I hate cold feet and I don't ski so I vote for anywhere away from >snow. > >To answer the question about the degradation in tree-ring chronology >confidence back in time - yes, we ( that is several of us in tree rings , >and rising out of them, in average temperature or rainfall series, have >suggested a basis for quantifying chronology error as a function of series >replication and time-dependent chages in the correlations of the series >that go to form the mean chronology. The problem is tricky because the >error is timescale ( i.e frequency) dependent also. This is just the >chronology. Calculating confidence limits on reconstructions derived from >one or more chronologies must take account of the regression error (again >likely to be timescale dependent) while incorporating the additional >uncertainty associated with the chronology. When the reconstructions are >derived using a spatial transfer function ( such as in canonical >correlation or our similar Orthogonal Spatial Regression technique )the >reconstruction at each point in the predictand network has some ,different, >uncertainty relating to the error in each predictor series and the >magnitude of its influence in the specific regression equation relating to >that point. Finally, as regards this issue, if you have detrended or >high-pass filtered the original predictor series in some way (i.e. >tree-ring standardisation) , you have some potential long-timescale >uncertainty around the final reconstruction which can not be represented by >any analyses of the remaining prdictors or their association with a >relatively short instrumental predictand series. I have a half drafted >paper on this which I intended to submit to Tree-Ring Bulletin - perhaps >one day! > > Your question about Jasper, the sample depth, in my opinion , IS >responsible for the early high values. So don't put much faith in the early >warmth. We have devised a simple method of scaling down the variance in >average series to take account of the inflated variance that occurs when a >reduced number of series are averaged - such as at the start of this >chronology . We used this in our recent Nature paper looking at a possible >volcanic signal in the density data averaged over the northern network. Ed >has incorporated this in the latest version of his super tree-ring >standardisation/chronolgy construction program , but it was not used in the >Jasper work . > > I agree that we must be careful not to appear to be knocking other >proxies- even if this is not intended . We must also be explicit about >where problems lie and in suggesting the ways to overcome them. I for one >do not think the world revolves only around trees. The only sensible way >forward is through interpretation of multiple proxies and we need much more >work comparing and reconciling the different evidence they hold. Let's have >more balance in the literature and more constructive dialogue /debate >between ourselves. > > Keith > > > > >At 02:38 PM 9/14/98 -0700, Jonathan T. Overpeck wrote: >>Hi Phil et al. - just read the Jones et al. Holocene paper (v. 8, p. >>456-471) and had a couple comments/questions.... >> >>1) nice paper >> >>2) would you like to archive the reconstructions at the WDC-A for Paleo?? >>It would be great to add them to existing recent ones (Cook et al. - >>drought; Mann et al. NH temp; Briffa et al. NH temp, Overpeck et al. Arctic >>temp). It would be ideal to get each of the 17 proxy records PLUS the >>hemispheric recons. >> >>3) regarding proxies, I wonder how much of the "quality" issue regarding >>ice cores and some other remote proxy records is due to there not being any >>instrumental stations near them (and at the same altitude)? Also, with >>respect to coral records, I get the feeling most in the coral community now >>think there is something "funny" about long Galapagos record (age model, >>maybe more - I think a new record is being generated). Also, many coral 18O >>records (e.g., New Caledonia) are influenced by both temp and salinity >>variations. This is a solid reason why the fit of such a record to temp >>won't be as good as you'd like (or as good as a buffo dendro record). I >>think Terry Quinn is generating the trace metal data to sort temp out. >>Lastly, I've now seen a number of coral records (most not published, but >>Tarawa is an example I think) where the proxy does as well as local >>instrumental data (in this case ppt) in getting the regional signal, AND >>the local instrumental record only go back to the war. I'm guessing, just >>between us, that ENSO recons based on proxies will soon be better than >>instrumental ones before 1950 - not just before 1850! In fact, I'd bet on >>it (using some of the money Ray still owes Julie!). Thus, I worry that it >>might not be wise to dismiss reconstructions on a proxy basis, particularly >>since trees lack one important trait - they don't work for all parts of the >>globe. >> >>4) About trees.... (Keith are you still reading?? - I sent this to Ed and >>Brian too, since they might have insights). Has anyone examined how a >>tree-ring recon degrades as a function of sample size back in time. I >>always see the quality of dendro recons cast as GREAT vs.other proxies (and >>they are) based on comparison with instrumental records. But, the dendro >>records usually have the best sample replication in this same instrumental >>period, and then tail off back in time. For example, Brian's Jasper recon >>has a sample depth of ca 28 trees in the last century, but drops off to ca. >>5 in the 12th century and 1 (?) in the 11th century. The "quality" of the >>recon must degrade too?? In contrast, some non-dendro reconstructions may >>not verify as well as dendro vs the instrumental record, but they might not >>degrade with time either since the sample density doesn't change with time. >>Thus, could it be that at some point back in time, the dendro records >>degrade to the same quality (or worse) than other proxies??? >> >>5) Talking specifically about Jasper, it is interesting that the 20th >>century is as warm or warmer than everything in the last 1000 years EXCEPT >>before ca. 1110 AD. Since the sample depth before this time is 5 or less, >>how much faith should we put in those warmer than modern temps?? >> >>6) I went to the trouble of all this mainly to A) get some feedback (and >>data into the WDC) and also B) to highlight that we need to extra careful >>in judging the quality of one proxy over or under another. If a well known >>group of paleo scientists suggest that, for example, corals are not that >>useful, then it might mean more years before we have a mutli-century >>record of tropical climate variability. I think it is clear that each proxy >>has limitations (and I like the table 2 idea of Jones et al), but the real >>need is to understand that each record (not just each proxy) has pros and >>cons, and that wise use requires knowing these pros/cons. Some coral, ice >>core and sediment records are no doubt better than some dendro records >>(also, for example, with respect to reconstructing low frequency variations >>in climate). I'm NOT trying to dis tree-rings, but rather to suggest more >>balance in what we all say in the literature. >> >>7) Lastly, I think there is a need to have a small workshop to put together >>an expanded version of Jones' et al. table 2, and, more importantly, to set >>some guidelines for data generators in terms of the kinds of data and meta >>data that need to be archived to ensure best use of the data (for example, >>information of the nature of the climate signal and what might bias it - >>like the salinity effect on a coral record or method of standardization on >>a dendro record). Also, we need guidelines on what info should be archived >>with a climate reconstruction (for example, are error bars available; if >>not, why not - there are often good reasons, but the interdisicplinary user >>might not get it). It might be best if the database could be upgreaded, so >>that users would know, for example, that a proxy record or recon they want >>to use has some recently discovered problem or verification. >> >>I've asked Mike Mann if he'd like to help put together such a workshop with >>me, and I think I have some US funding for it - it would be small, with >>just a couple folks from each proxy plus some folks like Phil and Mike who >>are well-know users of paleo data. Like the idea?? >> >>Thx for reading this far. Cheers, Peck >> >>Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program >>National Geophysical Data Center >>325 Broadway E/GC >>Boulder, CO 80303 >> >>tel: 303-497-6172 >>fax: 303-497-6513 >>jto@ngdc.noaa.gov >> >>For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries, >>PLEASE USE: >> >>Dr. Jonathan Overpeck >>NOAA National Geophysical Data Center >>3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136 >>Boulder, CO 80303 >>tel: 303-497-6160 >> >> >> >> >> >-- >Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom >Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784 Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program National Geophysical Data Center 325 Broadway E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6172 fax: 303-497-6513 jto@ngdc.noaa.gov For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries, PLEASE USE: Dr. Jonathan Overpeck NOAA National Geophysical Data Center 3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136 Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6160 4732. 1998-10-07 14:58:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 7 Oct 1998 14:58:00 EDT from: PARRYML@aol.com subject: NATURE:IMPORTANT to: mtjl.jei@ucl.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, nwa1@soton.ac.uk, arnell61@btinternet.com, r.nicholls@mdx.ac.uk Mike,Nigel,Robert and Matt: I have revised the message below, because the attached file will not send. I am therefore pasting it to this e-mail: I have just received this from Nature. Bold indicates where they would like more. I will aim to draft inserts tomorrow afternoon; BUT, before then, could you please help with some ideas [a) on reducing vulnerability and b) on next steps in the setting of targets - tho not at B. Aires as the editor suggests]. Robert and Nigel: note that I know the numbers in the tabele need to be changed. Thanks and regards, Martin from Nature: New agenda required for climate management Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Mike Hulme, Robert Nicholls and Matthew Livermore. The world is far more vulnerable to the threat of climate change than is suggested by the emissions targets currently being discussed. International negotiations resume in Buenos Aires next month, but a far more radical agenda is required. In Kyoto last December, at the third conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, targets were agreed for reductions in 'greenhouse' gases by the 38 countries who have signed the convention. On 2 November in Buenos Aires, negotiators will reconvene at the Framework Convention's fourth conference to agree the mechanisms and a timetable for implementation. We shall be hearing a good deal about trading permits, compliance and enforcement in the weeks to come. But in reality, the control on global warming that can be achieved on the current agenda is limited. We urgently need to reduce our vulnerability to impacts from climate change, for example through crop breeding to offset yield losses and efficient irrigation to counter water shortages. Author, please say how you think this reduction could be achieved, as specifically as possible (approx. 100 words). Adaptations of this kind, as well as climate-change mitigation, will be needed in a package of responses to climate change that is much wider than that being discussed at Buenos Aires. Author: please add a paragraph here to say what you think specifically should be discussed at Buenos Aires to address the problem you've identified (approx. 200 words). The Kyoto Protocol last December is an agreement to a 5.2 per cent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions by about 2010 (relative to 1990), and constant emissions thereafter. But these targets only relate to so-called Annex 1 countries (38 industrialized nations), which together account for about 57 per cent of present global carbon emissions but which will produce only 25 per cent of emissions growth over the next 20 years. Most future growth in emissions is expected to occur in the fast-developing countries of Asia and Latin America, which are not signatories to the Framework Convention. As a consequence, the Kyoto target does relatively little to combat the rate of climate change. The warming expected by 2050, without any deliberate mitigation, is currently estimated (author: please provide reference) by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) at about 1.4 °C with respect to the 1961-90 average. About 0.25 °C of this has already been realized since? (Author, do you mean since 1961-90? Please insert date.) Model predictions (reference, or say "our") suggest that fully implemented Kyoto targets would reduce this global warming in 2050 only by about 0.05 °C. Even substantially more radical targets, such as a 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from Annex-1 countries, would reduce only a further 0.1 °C by 2050. The impact of climate change will be serious whatever emissions target is agreed. To take an example, the number of people put at risk of hunger, water shortage or coastal flooding during storms as a result of projected climate changes is barely touched by the targets under discussion at Buenos Aires, even if full implementation of the targets is agreed there. The numbers given in the table are derived from impact models reported at Kyoto (reference). Although, for example, about 50 million additional people could be flooded every year during storms resulting from sea-level rise due to climate change without any mitigation, perhaps one million might avoid such flooding as a result of achieving the Kyoto target. The Framework Convention calls on signatories to take action to safeguard food security, ecosystems and sustainable development from dangerous levels of climate change. The current target does not do this. This does not mean that we should despair, but it emphasizes two things. First, Kyoto and Buenos Aires are only the first steps in a process that must involve much greater reduction in emissions and also, crucially, the participation of developing countries. In this respect, the achievements of the industrialized countries at Kyoto, if ratified, are important in providing a lead that will encourage others to follow. Second, mitigation by reducing greenhouse emissions cannot be the entire response to the threat posed by global climate change. Given the long history of past emissions from industrialized countries and the inertia of the climate system, we are committed to experiencing a substantial amount of further global warming even if we implement huge emissions cuts. Martin Parry and Matthew Livermore are in the Jackson Environment Institute, University College London, 5 Gower Street, London WC1E 6HA; Nigel Arnell is in the Department of Geography at the University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ; Mike Hulme is at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, and Robert Nicholls is at The Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Enfield EN3 4SF, UK. They are lead authors of the IPCC. Impacts estimated for the year 2050 additional people (millions) at risk of: Emissions scenario global warming (°C) with respect to 1961-90 water shortage sea-level rise hunger due to global warming unmitigated 1.39 1,465 50 22 Kyoto 1.33 1,465 49 20 20% reduction 1.22 1,321 48 17 30% reduction 1.19 1,321 47 16 5341. 1998-10-09 16:09:24 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 09 Oct 1998 16:09:24 +0000 (GMT) from: Robert Nicholls subject: Re: IMPORTANT:NATURE COMMENTARY to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, nwa1@soton.ac.uk, arnell61@btinternet.com, PARRYML@aol.com All numbers are correct and I find the new text fine. The two additional paragraphs make an excellent case for adaptation. However, an implicit message of Table 2 is that adaptation could handle climate change alone (the -15% option), so why are we worrying about mitigation? I think that this will be noted by many readers and it would be best if the piece had an explicit view on this, or delete the -15% option. We could note the long-term benefits of mitigation earlier in the piece (like GEC), or alternatively the cummulative threats of an unmitigated pathway. The only other change I would suggest is to table 1. Remove sea-level rise and replace with "coastal flooding (per year)". Robert ______________________________________________________________________ Note New Fax Number Below Robert J. Nicholls Middlesex University Queensway Enfield EN3 4SF United Kingdom 44-181-362-5569 (Tel and answer phone) 44-181-362-6957 (Fax) R.nicholls@mdx.ac.uk (Internet) 4493. 1998-10-12 11:31:39 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 11:31:39 +0200 from: Laurie.MICHAELIS@oecd.org subject: Storylines to: sres@iiasa.ac.at At the meeting last week in Beijing, I committed to produce a revised draft summary of the storylines for the web site. This is attached. Please could you send comments to me, and copy them to Naki, by Friday 16 October at the latest. At the meeting we agreed on a few points which I've tried to address in the revised draft. The most important is that 1) we see the scenarios as multidimensional rather than adopting the earlier two-axis scheme; 2) we do not want to have a "central", "best guess" or "business-as-usual" case; 3) we do not want to appear to be making policy recommendations and do not want A1 and B1 to appear as "utopias". Hence, I have paid particular attention to redrafting B2 which was previously presented as "dynamics as usual", and to including positive and negative features in all of the scenarios. Thanks very much for your prompt comments! Laurie. <> From: Laurie Michaelis Tel +33 1 45 24 98 17 Fax +33 1 45 24 78 76 OECD Environment Directorate 2 rue André-Pascal 75775 Paris CEDEX 16 France Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="Webst2.doc" Content-Location: ATT-0-6F0CB28CAE61D21197590000F8004FC7-W EBST2.DOC Content-type: application/msword; name="Webst2.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Webst2.doc" 1553. 1998-10-12 12:10:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Oct 12 12:10:26 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: copy to a safe place!!and leave original there to: i.Harris@uea >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 08:27:00 +0100 >Date: Fri, 9 Oct 1998 19:17:12 +0500 >From: Rashit Hantemirov >Reply-To: Rashit Hantemirov >Organization: IPAE >Priority: Normal >Return-Receipt-To: rashit@ipae.uran.ru >X-Confirm-Reading-To: Rashit Hantemirov >To: Keith Briffa >Subject: Short report on progress in Yamal work > >Dear Keith, > >I apologize for delay with reply. Below is short information about >state of Yamal work. > >Samples from 2,172 subfossil larches (appr. 95% of all samples), >spruces (5%) and birches (solitary finding) have been collected within >a region centered on about 67030'N, 70000'E at the southern part of >Yamal Peninsula. All of them have been measured. > >Success has already been achieved in developing a continuous larch >ring-width chronology extending from the present back to 4999 BC. My >version of chronology (individual series indexed by corridor method) >attached (file "yamal.gnr"). I could guarantee today that last >4600-years interval (2600 BC - 1996 AD) of chronology is reliable. >Earlier data (5000 BC - 2600 BC) are needed to be examined more >properly. > >Using this chronology 1074 subfossil trees have been dated. Temporal >distribution of trees is attached (file "number"). Unfortunately, I >can't sign with confidence the belonging to certain species (larch or >spruce) of each tree at present. > >Ring width data of 539 dated subfossil trees and 17 living larches are >attached (file "yamal.rwm"). Some samples measured on 2 or more radii. >First letter means species (l- larch, p- spruce, _ - uncertain), last >cipher - radius. These series are examined for missing rings. If you >need all the dated individual series I can send the rest of data, but >the others are don't corrected as regards to missing rings. > >Residuary 1098 subfossil trees don't dated as yet. More than 200 of >them have less than 60 rings, dating of such samples often is not >confident. Great part undated wood remnants most likely older than >7000 years. > >Some results (I think, the temperature reconstruction you will done >better than me): > >Millennium-scale changes of interannual tree growth variability have >been discovered. There were periods of low (5000-2800 BC), middle >(2800-1700 BC) and high interannual variability (1700 BC - to the >present). > >Exact dating of hundreds of subfossil trees gave a chance to clear up >the temporal distribution of trees abundance, age structure, frequency >of trees deaths and appearances during last seven millennia. >Assessment of polar tree line changes has been carried out by mapping >of dated subfossil trees. > >According to reconsructions most favorable conditions for tree growth >have been marked during 5000-1700 BC. At that time position of tree >line was far northward of recent one. >[Unfortunately, region of our research don't include the whole area >where trees grew during the Holocene. We can maintain that before 1700 >BC tree line was northward of our research area. We have only 3 dated >remnants of trees from Yuribey River sampled by our colleagues (70 km >to the north from recent polar tree line) that grew during 4200-4016 >and 3330-2986 BC.] >This period is pointed out by low interannual variability of tree >growth and high trees abundance discontinued, however, by several >short (50-100 years) unfavorable periods, most significant of them >dated about 4060-3990 BC. Since about 2800 BC gradual worsening of >tree growth condition has begun. Significant shift of the polar tree >line to the south have been fixed between 1700 and 1600 BC. At the >same time interannual tree growth variability increased appreciably. >During last 3600 years most of reconstructed indices have been varying >not so very significant. Tree line has been shifting within 3-5 km >near recent one. Low abundance of trees has been fixed during >1410-1250 BC and 500-350 BC. Relatively high number of trees has been >noted during 750-1450 AD. >There are no evidences of moving polar timberline to the north during >last century. > >Please, let me know if you need more data or detailed report. > > >Best regards, >Rashit Hantemirov > >Lab. of Dendrochronology >Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology >8 Marta St., 202 >Ekaterinburg, 620144, Russia >e-mail: rashit@ipae.uran.ru >Fax: +7 (3432) 29 41 61; phone: +7 (3432) 29 40 92 >Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\yamal.rwm" > >Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Yamal.gnr" > >Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Number" > 415. 1998-10-12 15:03:31 ______________________________________________________ cc: "'Sundararaman, N'" , "'Stone, John'" , "'Kuehr, Helmut'" , "Noguer, Maria" , Dave Griggs , "Moss, Richard" , "Swart, Rob" date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 15:03:31 +0100 from: "Noguer, Maria" to: "Baede, Fons" , Chris Folland , "Church, John" , "Cubasch, U" , "Ehhalt, Dieter" , "Giorgi, Filippo" , "Hewitson, Bruce" , "Hulme, Mike" , JohnFB Mitchell , Jonathan Gregory , "Karl, Tom" , "Karoly, David" , "McAvaney, Bryant" , "Mearns, Linda" , "Meehl, Jerry" , "Moore, Berrien" , "Penner, Joyce" , "Prather, Michael" , "Prentice, Colin" , "Ramaswamy, V" , "Stocker, Thomas" Dear Co-ordinating Lead Authors, As you are already aware, the list of Lead Authors and Review Editors for the WGI TAR together with the WGI TAR outline were approved by the IPCC WGI Bureau and WGI Plenary (28 ń 30 September 1998). The WGI TAR outline has been slightly modified by the WGI IPCC Plenary and reflects what the Governments consider to be the critical points. You are not oblige to take up these changes but please consider them seriously. It is very important that the Report adequately addresses the areas of science which the governments feel are important, and you could save yourselves considerable work at the government review stage by ensuring that their priorities are well covered. Some of the additions are things that were already under your detailed outline but the Plenary was only shown the short version. When you have had the chance to consider these changes, please send us your new detailed outline. The Governments also expressed other priorities which did not result in changes in the outline. We will prepare a short note of these and send it to you shortly. Please find within this Email the following files: * The new WGI TAR outline as an attachment and as text at the end of this Email * The list of all CLAs, LAs and REs for WGI TAR as an attachment and as text at the end of this Email Many thanks again for all the work you have put in this first stage and we are looking forward to working with you in the production of the TAR. David Griggs and Maria Noguer IPCC WGI TSU <> <> IPCC Third Assessment Report - Working Group I Draft List of Lead Authors - 12 October 1998 1. The Climate System - an Overview CLA: A Baede (Netherlands) LA: D Schimel (Germany) Y Ding (China) E Ahlonsou (Benin) RE: H Nassarallah (Kuwait) B Bolin (Sweden) S Pollonais (Trinidad & Tobago) 2. Observed Climate Variability and Change CLA: C Folland (UK) T Karl (USA) LA: S Wang (China) J Christy (USA) J Jouzel (France) A Clarke (Canada) J Oerlemans (Netherlands) M Mann (USA) G Gruza (Russian Federation) M Salinger (New Zealand) RE: B Nyenzi (Tanzania) R Hallgren (USA) 3. Carbon Cycle & Atmospheric CO2 CLA: C Prentice (Germany) LA: M Heimann (Germany) G Farquhar (Australia) R Scholes (South Africa) H Kheshgi (Industry/USA) C Le Quéré (France) D Wallace (USA) V Jaramillo (Mexico) M Goulden (USA) M Fasham (UK) RE: A Ramirez (Venezuela) L Pitelka (USA) 4. Atmospheric Chemistry & Radiative Trace Gases CLA: M Prather (USA) D Ehhalt (Germany) LA: I Isaksen (Norway) F Dentener (Netherlands) P Matson (USA) B Holland (Germany) V Kirchhoff (Brazil) M-X Wang (China) E Dlugokencky (USA) D Derwent (UK) P Midgley (Industry/Germany) J Katima (Tanzania) RE: F Joos (Switzerland) M McFarland (Industry/USA) 5. Aerosols and their Indirect Effects on Cloud CLA: J Penner (USA) LA: D Hegg (USA) M Andreae (Germany) G Pitari (Italy) H Annegarn (South Africa) D Murphy (USA) J Nganga (Kenya) L Barrie (Canada) R Leaitch (Canada) J Feichter (Germany) A Jayaraman (India) RE: B Nyenzi (Tanzania) J Prospero (USA) 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate CLA: V Ramaswamy (USA) LA: G-Y Shi (China) T Nakajima (Japan) S Solomon (USA) J Haywood (UK) J Haigh (UK) O Boucher (France) D Hauglustaine (France) G Myhre (Norway) RE: F Joos (Switzerland) J Srinivasan (India) 7. Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks CLA: T Stocker (Switzerland) LA: H Le Treut (France) K Trenberth (USA) V Meleshko (Russian Federation) P Sellers (USA) J Willebrand (Germany) G Clarke (Canada) R Pierrhumbert (USA) T Palmer (UK) (to be confirmed) R Mugara (Zambia) R Lindzen (USA) (to be confirmed) RE: H Nassarallah (Kuwait) P Mason (UK) S Manabe (Japan) 8. Global Climate Models - Evaluation CLA: B McAvaney (Australia) LA: A Weaver (Canada) Z Zhao (China) A Kitoh (Japan) R Wood (UK) S Joussaume (France) W Ogana (Kenya) V Kattsov (Russian Federation) A Pitman (Australia) C Covey (USA) RE: J Stone (Canada) Y-F Qian (China) 9. Global Climate Models - Projections CLA: U Cubash (Germany) G Meehl (USA) LA: R Stouffer (USA) G Boer (Canada) C Senior (UK) K S Yap (Malaysia) A Noda (Japan) S Raper (UK) M Dix (Australia) RE: J Stone (Canada) JW Kim (South Korea) 10 Regional Information - Evaluation and Projections CLA: F Giorgi (Italy) B Hewitson (South Africa) LA: J Christensen (Denmark) M Hulme (UK) H Von Storch (Germany) P Whetton (Australia) R Jones (UK) L Mearns (USA) C Fu (China) RE: J Zillman (Australia) M Mietus (Poland) 11. Changes in Sea Level CLA: J Church (Australia) J Gregory (UK) LA: P Woodworth (UK) K Lambeck (Australia) D-H Qin (China) N Nhuan (Vietnam) P Huybrechts (Belgium) M Kuhn (Austria) RE: A Ramirez (Venezuela) B Douglas (USA) 12. Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes CLA: D Karoly (Australia) J Mitchell (UK) LA: F Zwiers (Canada) V Barros (Argentina) B Santer (USA) (not confirmed, possible later additition) G Hegerl (Germany) RE: J Zillman (Australia) TBD 13. Climate Change Scenario Development CLA: L Mearns (USA) M Hulme (UK) LA: T Carter (Finland) TBD (P Whetton (Australia) to be asked) M Lal (India) R Leemans (Netherlands) RE: J Zillman (Australia) L Mata (Venezuela) 14. Advancing our Understanding CLA: B Moore (USA) LA: TBD TBD TBD RE: A Ramirez (Venezuela) B Bolin (Sweden) ************************************ IPCC Third Assessment Report Working Group I Draft Outline 12 October 1998 Note: Each chapter will have (i) an Executive Summary and (ii) as its first sub-section a summary of the main conclusions from the corresponding chapter(s) from the SAR. 1 The Climate System - an Overview 1.1 Introduction to the Climate System 1.2 The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change 1.3 Natural Climate Forcing and Climate Variability 1.4 Terminology and Definitions 1.5 Key new issues - Introduction to the Report 2 Observed Climate Variability and Change 2.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 2.2 Is the Global Temperature Changing (including comparison of surface and satellite observations)? 2.3 Is the Recent Warming Unusual (including discussion of general trends and episodes and comparison with paleo-records)? 2.4 How Rapidly did Climate Change in the Past? 2.5 Has Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture Increased? 2.6 Is the Atmospheric Circulation Changing? 2.7 Is the Oceanic Circulation Changing? 2.8 Has the Climate Become More Variable or Extreme? 2.9 Is the Climate Really Changing? 3 Carbon Cycle & Atmospheric CO2 3.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 3.2 Biogeochemical / Physical Sources, Sinks and Feedbacks (Terrestrial & Ocean) 3.3 Potential Releases of CO2 under Climate Change (including variations in CO2 over the last 50 million years) 3.4 Industrial Sources and Sinks 3.5 Observations, Budgets, Trends (inverse modelling) 3.6 Modelling / Projections 3.7 Sensitivity to Climate Change 4 Atmospheric Chemistry & Radiative Trace Gases 4.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 4.2 Current Observations, Trends and Budgets of Trace Gases 4.3 Projections of Future Emissions 4.4 Projections of Future Atmospheric Composition 4.5 Major Factors Controlling the Buildup of Greenhouse Gases 5 Aerosols and their Indirect Effects on Clouds 5.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 5.2 Biogeochemical Sources and Sinks (Terrestrial & Ocean) 5.3 Industrial Sources and Sinks 5.4 Volcanic Activity 5.5 Observations, Trends 5.6 Indirect Forcing on the Radiative Forcing of Clouds 5.7 Modelling / Projections 5.8 Sensitivity to Climate Change and Future Role 6 Radiative Forcing of Climate 6.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 6.2 By Gas / Aerosol 6.3 Aggregated by Sector 6.4 Solar Variability (including the possible amplification of response to solar changes) 6.5 Radiative Forcing and the Stratosphere, including stratospheric clouds 6.6 Surface Albedo Changes (including the effects of land-use change and changes in evapotranspiration) 6.7 Additivity and Regionality of Radiative Forcing 6.8 GWP and Alternative Approaches 6.9 Modelling / Projections of Radiative Forcing (past & future) 7 Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks 7.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 7.2 Atmospheric Processes and Feedbacks 7.3 Oceanic Processes and Feedbacks 7.4 Land-Surface Processes and Feedbacks 7.5 Cryosphere Processes and Feedbacks (including sea ice change) 7.6 Possible non-linear events and instabilities (including El Nińo / La Nińa and the dynamics of natural variability of coupled earth systems) 8 Global Climate Models - Evaluation 8.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 8.2 What do we mean by Evaluation? 8.3 Model Hierarchy 8.4 Coupled Models - Description and Methods (including model data validity and representativeness) 8.5 Coupled Models - Means 8.6 Coupled Models - Variability on Different Time Scales 8.7 Coupled Models - Phenomena 8.8 Coupled Models - Extreme Events 8.9 Sources of Uncertainty 8.10 Sensitivity of Coupled Models 8.11 Level of Confidence in Coupled Models 8.12 Simple Climate Models (MAY MOVE TO ANOTHER CHAPTER) 9 Global Climate Models - Projections 9.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 9.2 Methods of Projection Using Global Climate Models 9.3 Climate Sensitivity 9.4 Changes in the Mean 9.5 Changes in Variability 9.6 Changes in Extreme Events 9.7 Changes in Scenarios and Projections Since 1990 and 1995 9.8 Synthesis Section 10 Regional Information - Evaluation and Projections 10.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 10.2 Approaches to Regionalisation 10.3 Coupled AOGCMs 10.4 High Resolution / Variable Resolution Timeslice GCMs 10.5 Regional Climate Models 10.6 Empirical / Statistical Methods 10.7 Statistical-Dynamical Methods 10.8 Simulation and Projections of Extreme Events with Regional Climate Models 10.9 Intercomparison of Different Approaches (including comparison of models with observations) 10.10 Introduction to the Inventory of Regional Model Studies (including a wide range of regions) Appendix (Inventory of Regional Model Studies, to include tables with regions and the regional model/empirical studies applied) 11 Changes in Sea Level 11.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 11.2 Observed Sea-level Changes 11.3 Factors Contributing to Sea-level Change 11.4 Can Sea-level Changes During the Last 100 Years be Explained? 11.5 How Might Sea-level Change in the Future? 11.6 Reducing the Uncertainties in Future Estimates of Sea-level Change 12 Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes 12.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 12.2 How have Detection Methodologies Advanced? 12.3 How well can Natural Factors Explain Observed Climate Change? 12.4 How well can Anthropogenic Forcing Explain Observed Climate Change? 12.5 What are the other Qualitative Consistencies and Inconsistencies between Observed and Modelled Climate Change? 13 Climate Change Scenario Development 13.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 13.2 Sources of Information on Climate Change for Scenario Development 13.3 Baseline Climatologies, including discussion of extreme events 13.4 Incorporation of Spatial and Temporal Resolution 13.5 Measures of Uncertainty 13.6 Consistency among Scenario Components 14 Advancing our Understanding 14.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 14.2 Improvements Needed in Observational Systems 14.3 New Research Priorities Index *************************************************  Dr. Maria Noguer  IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit  Hadley Centre   Met Office  London Road  Bracknell Berks, RG12 2SY UK Tel: +44 (0) 1344 854938 Fax: +44 (0) 1344 856912  Email: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk   ************************************************ Content-description: TAR CLA,LA,RE -12/10/98 Content-disposition: attachment; filename="TAR CLA,LA,RE -12/10/98.DOC" Content-Location: ATT-0-38AC8E2CCD61D211AC0F00104B428DD2-T ARCLALA.DOC Content-type: application/msword; name="TAR CLA,LA,RE -12/10/98.DOC" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\TAR CLA,LA,RE -121098.doc" Content-description: TAR outline short 12/10/98 Content-disposition: attachment; filename="TAR outline short 12/10/98.DOC" Content-Location: ATT-1-39AC8E2CCD61D211AC0F00104B428DD2-T AROUTLI.DOC Content-type: application/msword; name="TAR outline short 12/10/98.DOC" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\TAR outline short 121098.doc" 2105. 1998-10-12 15:45:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 15:45:48 +0200 from: "T.Kram" subject: Re: B2 sulphur to: sres@iiasa.ac.at Dear all, I fully agree with Naki that we should be very careful with such last-minute changes, in particular if they seem to be inspired by the wish to make B2 the preferred single case. In my view there are plenty arguments in favour and against higher sulphur emissions in B2 than B1 that need to be sorted out in due course for final assessments for the final report. As Naki mentions rightfully, the model-based approach selected is not compatible with 'simply' adjusting emission coefficients ex-post. Moreover, as we need to freeze numerical data for the Open Process on very short notice (e.g. Alex already prepared graphs based on the current calculations in Beijing and we cannot continue adjusting all these numbers and graphs!). So, I suggest to leave the markers unchanged as there are no convincing arguments in support of S-emissions being "too low" in B2. In the worst case we may want to revise our position somewhat in the final report, causing slightly less global climate effect and less regional spread in temperature forcing due to the higher S emissions. Tom PS: If the group decides not to adhere to my views, an extremely tight schedule will have to be developed to ensure that new runs are made and data are made available on the Website before the end of the month. So we must decide very, very quickly. Tom ---------- From: Nebojsa NAKICENOVIC To: sres@iiasa.ac.at Cc: johnson@thames.iiasa.ac.at Subject: Re: B2 sulphur Date: maandag 12 oktober 1998 15:15 Laurie and Ken, I appreciate the importance of this discussion and full review of all model runs. However, we need to be absolutely careful not to make a mess of our work in the last minute, so to say. Modeling groups have now spent months harmonizing the scenarios and we all know that we still have a lot of work to do. However, we should not ask them to make fundamental changes in the scenarios while we have not yet agreed on the exact text of the storylines. I also agree with Laurie that we should resist further temptations to make B2 appear as the only baseline scenario. They all are reference scenarios. Yes, let us review sulfur and all other features of the scenarios. Please send specific comments to the modeling groups, but let us not propose fundamental changes until the proposed changes have been analyzed. Sulfur emissions calculations are based on technical emissions coefficients so that they cannot be changed by simply pushing a button. Some sulfur is removed from coal in synfuel production, other is scrubbed from powerplants, etc. Reintroducing these emissions into the final model solution requires changes in technology mix and costs meaning that we are likely to have a new scenario that is different in other aspects as well and not only in sulfur emissions. Cheers, Naki At 02:36 PM 10/12/98 +0200, Laurie.MICHAELIS@oecd.org wrote: >I agree with taking another look at sulphur profiles across the scenarios >and I'm comfortable with the idea that B2 might have higher sulphur but I do >not agree with Ken's rationale. > >The modelling community may or may not take B2 as their preferred case to >model, but we decided last week that we do not want to offer a "median >case". B2 has to have its own story. I do not believe that there is any >harm in giving the message that median variables do not necessarily go >together. > >Having said this, B2 has been explained as an environmentally conscious case >with a regional governance emphasis -- "regional self-reliance". The real >question is, do we seen this storyline as having more or less advanced >sulphur control technology than B1. The way I've currently slanted the >storylines, B1 has more technical change, and B2 has more behavioural >change. Hence, I would be comfortable with B2 having a higher emission >factor for sulphur from coal. > > > >From: > >Laurie Michaelis > >Tel +33 1 45 24 98 17 >Fax +33 1 45 24 78 76 > >OECD Environment Directorate >2 rue André-Pascal >75775 Paris >CEDEX 16 >France > > > > ---------- 3462. 1998-10-13 12:46:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 13 Oct 1998 12:46:54 +0500 from: Rashit Hantemirov subject: Re: Your data- a reference? to: Keith Briffa Dear Keith, below is the list of publications concerning Yamal chronology. References of russian articles are in three forms: a) original russian text. I am afraid you will be not able to read (see) it without any russian driver. Therefore, if you need this form of reference, please see attached file as well (.doc file) using attached russian font; b) russian words written by english letters; c) english translation (excuse me for my english). 1. Hantemirov, R.M. A 2,305 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean June-July temperature deviations in the Yamal Peninsula //Int. Conf. on Past, Present and Future Climate: Proc. of the SILMU conf. Helsinki, Finland, 22-25 August 1995 /Publication of the Academy of Finland 6/95.- Helsinki, 1995.- P. 124-127. 2. U`mrelhpnb P.L., Qspjnb @.^. 3243-kerm dpebeqmn-jnk|veb` pejnmqrpsjvh jkhl`rhweqjhu sqknbhi dk qebep` G`o`dmni Qhahph // Opnakel{ nayei h ophjk`dmni }jnknchh (L`reph`k{ lnkndefmni jnmtepemvhh).- Ej`rephmaspc, 1996.- Q. 266-278. Hantemirov R.M., Surkov A.Yu. 3243-letnyaya drevesno-kol'cevaya rekonstrukciya klimaticheskich usloviy dlya severa Zapadnoy Sibiri // Problemy obshchey i prikladnoy ekologii (Materialy molodezhnoy konferencii).- Ekaterinburg, 1996.- S. 266-278. Hantemirov R.M., Surkov A.Yu. A 3243-year tree-ring reconstruction of climatic conditions for the north of West Siberia // Problems of general and applied ecology (Proceedings of young scientists conference).- Ekaterinburg, 1996.- P. 266-278. 3. Xhrnb Q.C., U`mrelhpnb P.L., L`geo` B.Q. Onbeqr| _l`k|qjhu ker. Kernohq| hglememhi jkhl`r` m` _l`ke g` onqkedmhe rph r{qwekerh, g`ohq`mm` b cndhwm{u jnk|v`u depeb|eb. // _l`k - qnjpnbhymhv` Pnqqhh.- 1996.- N 4.- Q. 6-7. Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Mazepa V.S. Povest' Yamal'skich let. Letopis' izmeneniy klimata na Yamale za posledniye tri tysyacheletiya, zapisannaya v godichnych kol'zach derev'ev // Yamal - sokrovishchnica Rossii.- 1996.- N 4.- S. 6-7. Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Mazepa V.S. The tale of Yamal's years [summers]. A chronicle of climate changes on Yamal during last three millennia recorded in tree rings. // Yamal - the treasury of Russia.- 1996.- N 4.- P.6-7. I am sorry, it is difficult for me to translate properly the title of this article in the popular magazine. 4. Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Schweingruber, F.H., Briffa K.R. and Moell M. Potential long chronology development on the northwest Siberian plain: Early results // Dendrochronologia.- 1996.- V. 14.- P. 13-29. 5. B`c`mnb E.@., Xhrnb Q.C., U`mrelhpnb P.L., M`spga`eb L.L. Hglemwhbnqr| kermei reloep`rsp{ bngdsu` b b{qnjhu xhpnr`u Qebepmncn onksx`ph g` onqkedmhe 1.5 r{q. ker: qp`bmhrek|m{i `m`khg d`mm{u cndhwm{u jnkev depeb|eb h kednb{u jnknmnj // Dnjk. @M.- 1997.- R. 358, 9 5.- Q. 681-684. Vaganov E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Naurzbaev M.M. Izmenchivost' letney temperatury vozducha v vysokich shirotach Severnogo polushariya za posledniye 1.5 tys. let: sravnitel'nyy analiz dannych godichnych kolec derev'ev i ledovych kolonok // Doklady Akademii Nauk.- 1997.- T. 358, N 5.- S. 681-684. Vaganov E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Hantemirov, R.M., Naurzbaev M.M. Variability of summer air temperature in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during last 1.5 thousand years: comparative analysis of tree-ring and ice core data // Proceedings of the [Russian] Academy of Sciences.- 1997.- V. 358, N 5.- P. 681-684. Papers in press expected to be published this year: 6. U`mrelhpnb P.L. Dpebeqmn-jnk|veb` pejnmqrpsjvh kermhu reloep`rsp m` qebepe G`o`dmni Qhahph g` onqkedmhe 3248 ker // Qha. }jnk. f..- 1998.-R. 5, N 5 (b oew`rh). Hantemirov R.M. Drevesno-kol'cevaya rekonstrukciya letnich temperatur na severe Zapadnoy Sibiri za posledniye 3248 let // Sibirskii ecologicheskii zhurnal.- 1998.- T. 5, N 5 (v pechati). Hantemirov R.M. Tree ring reconstruction of summer temperatures on the north of West Siberia during last 3248 years // Siberian Ecological Journal.- 1998.- V. 5, N 5 (in press) There is English version of this journal 7. U`mrelhpnb P.L. 4309-kerm upnmnknch dk _l`k` h ee hqonk|gnb`mhe dk pejnmqrpsjvhh hqrnphh jkhl`rhweqjhu hglememhi m` qebepe G`o`dmni Qhahph. // Opnakel{ }jnknchweqjncn lnmhrnphmc` h lndekhpnb`mh }jnqhqrel.- QOa.: Chdpnlerenhgd`r, 1998.- R. 17.- (b oew`rh) Hantemirov R.M. 4309-letnyaya chronologiya dlya Yamala i yeyo ispol'zovaniye dlya rekonstrukcii istorii klimaticheskich izmeneniy na severe Zapadnoy Sibiri // Problemy ecologicheskogo monitoringa i modelirovaniya ekosistem.- SPb.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1998.- T.17 (v pechati). Hantemirov R.M. A 4309 year chronology for Yamal and its use for reconstruction of climatic changes history on the north of West Siberia // Problems of ecological monitoring and modelling of ecosystems.- S.Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat, 1998.- V.17 (in press) 8. U`mrelhpnb P.L., Xhrnb Q.C. P`dhnsckepndm{e h demdpnupnmnknchweqjhe d`rhpnbjh onkshqjno`elni dpebeqhm{ m` _l`ke h hu hqonk|gnb`mhe dk hgswemh dhm`lhjh keqnrsmdpnb{u }jnqhqrel. // Ahnr` Ophsp`k|qjni Qsa`pjrhjh b ongdmel okeiqrnveme h cnknveme. Ej`rephmaspc, hgd-bn "Ej`rephmaspc", 1998 (b oew`rh). Hantemirov R.M., Shiyatov S.G. Radiouglerodnyye i dendrochronologicheskiye datirovki poluiskopayemoy drevesiny na Yamale i ich ispol'zovaniye dlya izucheniya dinamiki lesotundrovych ekosistem // Biota Priural'skoy Subarktiki v pozdnem pleistocene i golocene. Ekaterinburg, izdatel'stvo "Ekaterinburg", 1998 (v pechati) Hantemirov R.M., Shiyatov S.G. Radiocarbon and dendrochronological datings of subfossil wood from Yamal and their using to study forest-tundra ecosystems dynamic // Biota of [near]Ural Subarctic during the late Pleistocene and the Holocene. Ekaterinburg, publishing house "Ekaterinburg", 1998 (in press) 9. Xhrnb Q. C., U`mrelhpnb P. L. Demdpnupnmnknchweqj` d`rhpnbj` dpebeqhm{ jsqr`pmhjnb hg `puenknchweqjncn onqekemh _pre-6 m` onksnqrpnbe _l`k // Dpebmnqrh _l`k`. Rnank|qj, 1998 (b oew`rh). Shiyatov S.G., Hantemirov R.M. Dendrochronologicheskaya datirovka drevesiny kustarnikov iz archeologicheskogo poseleniya Yarte-6 na poluostrove Yamal // Drevnosti Yamala. Tobol'sk, 1998 (v pechati) Shiyatov S.G., Hantemirov R.M. Dendrochronological dating of shrubs wood from archeological settlement "Yarte-6" on the Yamal Peninsula // Antiquities of Yamal. Tobolsk, 1998 (in press). I am not quite get your question about fieldwork. You mean "this year" is 1998? If so it is too late now, on southern part of Yamal yesterday was about -10 C. Next year we plane fieldwork, final decision about where and when we will make in the beginning of next year. I would like to go to Yuribey River, northward of our usual research area. Best regards, Rashit Hantemirov Lab. of Dendrochronology Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology 8 Marta St., 202 Ekaterinburg, 620144, Russia e-mail: rashit@ipae.uran.ru Fax: +7 (3432) 29 41 61; phone: +7 (3432) 29 40 92 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\articles.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Timcyr.ttf" 617. 1998-10-15 09:25:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 09:25:07 +0100 from: Shelly Holtham subject: Re: NERC postdoctoral fellowships -Reply to: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Tim Sorry but we no longer send out confirmation automatically. I can confirm your application has arrived safely. Regards Shelly. Shelly Holtham Awards & Training Email; sholt@nerc.ac.uk 1281. 1998-10-15 13:21:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 13:21:57 +0000 from: Henryk Gaj subject: RE: taxonomy to: sres@iiasa.ac.at Thank you for the response, Laurie. Details are inserted to the text below - > From: Laurie.MICHAELIS@oecd.org > To: sres@iiasa.ac.at > Subject: RE: taxonomy > Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 09:17:45 +0200 > Thanks very much, Henryk. I think the ideas in this are important -- my > main question is how we should present it. Your table carries the same > basic information as the one we produced last year but it presents it > spatially which could make it easier for people to grasp, certainly. Do you > have a preference for the dimensions you have included over the ones I put > in my table? Actually, my dimensions cover the same area yours do. There are only some differences in aggregation of dimensions (driving forces). The main difference is a different order of dimensions presented in the table. What I wanted to achieve changing the order was a certain internal logic by putting the dimensions in a sequence of "causes and results". This implies also certain ranking of dimensions. E.g.: "global governance" may be treated as a "top hierarchy" driving force; if it is perfect (see left side of the table)" global institutions" are well developed and "geopolitical stability" is achieved; next, if all three dimensions are highly positive the "free communication and global co-operation" is ensured; all above provides a good background for "good education" .... a.s.o. In this way, you can recreate a story for all storylines tracing (according to the proposed sequence) its ranking over all dimensions. This exercise let you check and verify the internal logical consistency of the storylines. > > On the time aspect, if I understand correctly, your main message is that > "sustainability" is subjective and context-dependent. Misunderstanding. My concept has nothing in common with the subjectivity. Subjectivity of assessments is quite an obvious thing, but this is not the concept is about. I wanted to show, that sustainability of developments, development as defined by our storylines, depends on how long period of time do we consider. If those patterns of development lasted for 400 years we would get a quite ruined world, which is not the case if we consider only 20-50 years period. The message I wanted to transfer was, that the SRES modelling team applied rather a short time perspective in its thinking (otherwise it had to include to the storyline set at least one storyline based on quite a different paradigm). But nobody can blame us we did not it. We are living now, and the reality of our life determines the discounting we apply in our thinking (2-5%). From that point our judgements are context dependent. I agree. End of file. Henryk I'm not sure if this > is just a time-scale issue. For example, some people would argue that A1 is > sustainable because it allows for the development of technology to > substitute for ecological services. Others would argue that any > irreversible change in ecosystems and biosphere cycles is unsustainable. > This is not just "us" versus "our children". I have tried to suggest that > the four scenarios actually play out different people's views of > sustainability, placing differing stresses on the economic, social and > environmental aspects. I am rather uncomfortable with trying to rank the > four scenarios in terms of "sustainability" in the short or long term. That > would be almost like ranking them for "goodness". > > My preference would be to have a paragraph in the overview on the scenarios > that conveys some of these ideas, including the idea that ideas about what > is "sustainable" are likely to change over time. What do you think? > > > > > > > ---------- > > From: Henryk Gaj[SMTP:fewewar@butler.medianet.pl] > > Sent: Tuesday, 13 October, 1998 18:29 > > To: laurie.michaelis@oecd.org > > Cc: naki@iiasa.ac.at; schlesin@atmos.uiuc.edu > > Subject: taxonomy > > > > <> > > > > Laurie, > > In the attachment I send possible input to the "Scenario taxonomy" > > chapter. This is done according to the concept I presented in > > Beijing. Feel free to make use of it, if you considered it valuable. > > Regards, Henryk > > > > ***************** > > Henryk Gaj Ph.D. > > Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency > > 21, Brodzinskiego Str. > > 01-557 Warsaw, POLAND > > ----------------------- > > phone/fax: (+48)22 394945 or 393618 or 392141 > > e-mail: fewewar@ternet.pl > > web: http://www.silesia.top.pl/fewe/ > > ***************** > > > > ***************** Henryk Gaj Ph.D. Polish Foundation for Energy Efficiency 21, Brodzinskiego Str. 01-557 Warsaw, POLAND ----------------------- phone/fax: (+48)22 394945 or 393618 or 392141 e-mail: fewewar@ternet.pl web: http://www.silesia.top.pl/fewe/ ***************** 4243. 1998-10-15 16:07:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: sres@iiasa.ac.at date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 16:07:21 +0200 from: Arnulf GRUBLER subject: Re: Storylines to: Laurie.MICHAELIS@oecd.org Dear Laurie This is a comment on your writeup of the storylines. I think you have done a good job on the introductory material explaining the process and the why's of storylines. Conversely I feel you have gone overboard in introducing highly negative and politicised languages in some storylines, partcularly in A1 that were 1. never part of any draft storylines produced so far 2. add neither interprative nor explanatory power to the A1 quantification in terms of GHG emissions 3. make no reference that the "balanced" variant represents tha marker A1 scenario, but alternative path dependent resource/technological configurations are equally feasible (clean coal, oil/gas forever, "bionuc"). 4. introduce an inconsistent statement on economic growth. Ad 1 and 2. To be blunt, I consider to put statements like: "a global underclass develops.. crime, drug dependence, homelessness and suicide rates increase...religous cults spring up everywhere....etc.." is guarantee to kill the entire SRES process and all work done thus far. Your literary "creativity" drive risks of destroying the entire hard work put into this by a large number of people, without any intellectual/scientific basis. I distance myself strongly from such statements and I guess others feel like that too. I request that you delete the entire paragraph beginning with "While international economic....." and ending with "...social malaise of teh world." ad 3. As you are one of the lead authors on technology, I think it is worth an effort of trying to capture the idea of path dependency and of the fact that near-term choices can introduce long-term irreversibilities into the text, plus explain that the marker is characterized by a "balanced" technology mix. ad 4. If growth rates to 2100 are the same as since 1850, how can the conditions be unparallelled in history? What is indeed unprecendented in A1 compared to history is that over the long-term no region/country is excluded from economic catch-up. Hence, the convergence characteristic of the scenario, that compares only with conditional convergence (i.e. Japan or Western Europe have joined the productivity/affluence frontier of the US, but many developing countries not) seen in the historical record. Or using Hugh's terminology, what may be called unprecedented in history is that all regions catch up to the labor productivity frontier resulting in an aggregate growth of 3 %/yr, whereas historically only a limited number of countries have cought-up with yet higher rates than assumed in the scenario, resulting also in a 3%/yr GWP growth. Thanks for your consideration of my comments in the revised text. Arnulf. Arnulf GRUBLER International Institute for | Email: gruebler@iiasa.ac.at Applied Systems Analysis | Phone: +43 2236 807 470 A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: +43 2236 71313 1930. 1998-10-15 18:05:48 ______________________________________________________ cc: sres@iiasa.ac.at date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:05:48 +0200 from: Arnulf GRUBLER subject: Re: Comments on SRES scenarios to: Bill Hare Dear Bill A few answers to your questions. 1. As stated in the minutes of both the Washington and Laxenburg SRES meetings the A1 marker is represented by the "balanced" technology variant. Oil/Gas, clean coal, as well as "bio-nuc" are alternative equally plausible scenario variants in which technological change and resource accessabiliy go in alternative mutually exclusive directions. Indeed the clean coal and oil/gas intensive variants have much higher emissions than the "balanced" scenario A1, and the non-fossil-intensive scenario have lower emissions. While the final report will preserve this scenario bifurcation, the entire writing team felt it to be a too complex story to be put on the website for a single scenario. Hence, the Washington agreement to develop a "balanced" scenario (progress in clean coal, oil/gas, renewables as well as nuclear). In terms of emissions this results in moderating tendencies. Progress in oil/gas means no C-intensive large-scale synfuels are required. Progress in clean-coal mean that coal can be used without too adverse impacts on local and regional environments. Progress in nuclear and renewables alike result in a regionally/global diversified fuel mix, not requiring overreliance on coal. 2. Variant A1 4 ("bionuc") is entirely plausible because there resource availability is precisely NOT high as in the two fossil-rich alternatives (cf. the storyline text on this). Instead, conventional oil and gas are scarce, clean coal technologies do not get developed, which induces technological change into a post-fossil technological direction. Some might say this is only possible with policies. I would answer that we have left a coal-based steam economy behind us entirely without policy intervention. Hence, I consider the "bionuc" scenario as plausible as the fossil alternatives or the "balanced" marker scenario. 3. I cannot comment in detail on the low sulfur emissions in A2 (perhaps Alex would like to answer you in detail). By looking at the fuel mix some regions go out of fossils which means low sulfur emissions. Other regions stay in coal or fossils which would mean high sulfur emissions. However, A2 is a highly populated world. Food security therefore will be on the top policy agenda. Any environmental impacts like acidification that threatens food security is unlikely to pass unchecked in a 16 billion world. So to me low sulfur emissions appear entirely plausible and consistent. 4. Nuclear in B1. In fact Bert forcefully argued at our Beijing meeting that he and his model are not prepared to forecast nuclear. In fact he uses a generic zero-carbon electricity "backstop" in modeling the B1 marker scenario. This could include anything from wind, PVs, geothermal, nuclear, etc. So your comment points indeed to a reporting problem. Any specific suggestions are welcome. 5. Nuclear in B2. Given that B2 assumes more modest dynamics in both technology (compared to A1) and social and lifestyle patterns (compared to B1) means that: 1. demand is higher than in B1 2. technological change is less radical than in A1 (and B1). This translates into market growth largely for established technologies which means clean coal, and (wether you like it or not) nuclear. It might not seem intuitive, but in all the scenario literature I am aware of, "muddling through" scenarios have generally always the highest nuclear shares. This simply because resource depletion sets in earlier and renewables and other alternative sources are not improving fast enough that they can compete with coal and nuclear. With modest dynamics the choice is therefore largely between coal and nuclear. Evidently this can play out differently in various regions and that's what the scenarios actually assumes. Regions with high population and energy densities and no indiginous coal (all the countries outside US, Canada, Australia, South Africa, Russia, China and India) tilt rather towards nuclear, and the coal-rich regions rather tilt towards coal based technologies. The emphasis on regional self-reliance and environmental protection precludes gigantomanic coal trade in the B2 scenario. So there is not much choice left. 6. You may recall, the repeated staements of the SRES writing team in its discussion and in its minutes, that in view of an unpredictable future we consider a priori all scenarios as equally likely. We may have different personal opinions. But there is no scientific way of assigning relative probabilities to a whole complex of interacting developments that characterizes one particular scenario. Therefore it is in my viewpoint not productive to always try to give probability rankings to the scenarios. If you feel that B1 does not look likely from today's perspective, try to imagine yourself in the year 2020. Try to imagine a scenario with an FCCC and COP-4 back in 1980! You would have been hard pressed even in Greenpeace to suggest this as a "most likely" scenario. Still it all happened. So who can decide? Perhaps we all will think in 10 years B1 as most likely, or A1, or B2. The useful answer is not to decide now, but to explore the implications of alternative futures. That's what SRES is all about and that's what we want to recommend to the scenario users: stay away from the use of a single scenario! 7. I conclude with a personal note. As you are member of the writing team I feel it would have been more productive if you could have provided the Greenpeace view in our meetings in Washington, Laxenburg, and more recently in Beijing. If you are too busy, nominate a colleague to substitute you. But I find it a bit funny to conduct the very function of a scenario writing team only in batch, electronic and fax mode. To me it looks a bit unfair to try to be at the same time within and outside the process and to interpret work burden sharing in a very one sided way. We have to respond to your questions, but you are never present to answer some of ours too. Yours truly, Arnulf. Arnulf GRUBLER International Institute for | Email: gruebler@iiasa.ac.at Applied Systems Analysis | Phone: +43 2236 807 470 A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: +43 2236 71313 1144. 1998-10-15 18:13:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: tar_la@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_reved@earth.usgcrp.gov, wgii.bureau@earth.usgcrp.gov, ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:13:46 -0500 from: ddokken@usgcrp.gov (Dave Dokken) subject: Approved WG2 TAR Outline to: tar_cla@earth.usgcrp.gov IPCC WORKING GROUP II THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT OUTLINE Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Chapter 1. Overview (15 pp.) Chapter 1 will explain the importance of the issue of climate change impacts on environmental and human systems, introduce some of the concepts and terms used in the report, and provide a guide for using the report in language accessible to non-specialist audiences. Executive Summary 1.1 Climate change impacts: what is potentially at stake 1.2 Overview of policy-relevant scientific/technical questions addressed in the report 1.3 The nature of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: illustration and integration of key concepts 1.4 Audiences and information needs addressed 1.5 "Users' Guide" to the WG II TAR (e.g., treatment of uncertainties/levels of confidence) Chapter 2. Methods and Tools (20 pp.) This chapter will assess approaches available in the literature and describe the methods and tools that will be used in regional and sectoral analyses. Executive Summary 2.1 Observational studies, including non-climate indicators of climate change and responses to climate variability 2.2 Methods for assessing impacts and vulnerability, including historical case studies, scenario analysis, thresholds, modeling, critical zones and populations, tolerable windows, and integrated assessment 2.3 Costing and valuation methods and issues (joint with WG III, Chapter 7) 2.4 Decision analytic methods and frameworks (joint with WG III, Chapter 10) 2.5 Alternative methods for explicitly incorporating uncertainty and characterizing "levels of confidence" Chapter 3: Development and Application of Scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment (20 pp.) Executive Summary 3.1 Definitions and uses of scenarios 3.2 Types of global change scenarios 3.3 Characterizing present-day conditions (baselines) 3.4 Developing socio-economic scenarios (c.f. WG III Chapter 2) 3.5 Developing land surface change scenarios 3.6 Developing environmental scenarios 3.7 Developing climate change scenarios (cross cut to WG I Chapter 13) 3.8 Representing feedbacks and consistency between scenarios 3.9 Description and evaluation of baseline data and projections provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC) 3.10 Facilitating the distribution, use, and interpretation of scenarios Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Building on the conclusions of the SAR, recent developments in the state of knowledge of climate change impacts will be assessed. Special attention will be given to vulnerabilities, natural variability, baseline trends, cross-sectoral issues, non-linear interactions, and adaptation options. The developments in experimental work, observations, and modeling that contributed to advances in the state of knowledge will be assessed, including estimation of confidence in reported results. For major components and subcomponents, the chapters of this section will assess or review (as relevant): * Current status and projected trends/demands * Major findings of SAR with respect to systems and human uses * Analysis of natural response of systems (sensitivity, vulnerability, adaptation) using scenarios as per Chapter 3 * New knowledge, including: a. direct effects of CO2 fertilization/N deposition, surface ozone b. direct effects of climate variables c. effects of variability/extreme events d. interactions with other environmental conditions (e.g., pollution) e. effects on production, distribution (market/non-market) systems, and human communities f. effects on biodiversity and wildlifeg. potential surprises, thresholds, and indicators of system instability h. directed adaptation and responses i. tools/methods/approaches/models used in developing new knowledge, including assumptions, sensitivities, and scenarios used in models Chapter 4: Hydrology and Water Resources (20 pp.) Executive Summary 4.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 4.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources 4.3 The hydrological cycle, including precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, groundwater, and extreme hydrological events, including effects on erosion 4.4 Water demands (quantity and quality) for natural and managed ecosystems, municipal, industrial, navigation, and recreational uses, and competition among demands 4.5 Water supply (quantity and quality) for different types of systems 4.6 Management implications and adaptation options, including responses to extreme hydrological events 4.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 4.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 5: Natural and Managed Ecosystems (40 pp.) Executive Summary 5.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 5.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on landscapes: global distribution of biomes/vegetation types/ecotones, including transitions from one type of system to another; ecosystem functions/processes, including state of knowledge of carbon budget; biodiversity, migratory wildlife, and endangered species; protected areas and conservation reserves; global markets and distribution of food and fiber 5.3 Agriculture 5.4 Grasslands/Rangelands/Grazing systems 5.5 Savannas/Woodlands 5.6 Forests/Forestry 5.7 Deserts 5.8 Lakes/Streams/Freshwater fisheries and aquaculture 19.1 Wetlands 19.2 Mountain Regions 5.11 Cryosphere 5.12 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, adaptation potential and opportunities, valuation of systems and their services, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 5.13 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 6: Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems (20 pp.) Executive Summary 6.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 6.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on coastal zones and marine ecosystems, including sea-level rise 6.3 Ecosystems (including fisheries) and biogeochemical functions 6.4 Biogeophysical aspects of coastal zones 6.5 Indices of social and economic vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change and sea-level change 6.6 Adaptation 6.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 6.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 7: Energy, Industry, and Settlements (20 pp.) Executive Summary 7.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 7.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on human population migration/security and settlements 7.3 Industry, energy, transportation, and other climate-sensitive sectors 7.4 Infrastructure (e.g., utilities, waste management, sanitation) 7.5 Vulnerabilities of human settlements by type (e.g., coastal, arid region, agrarian, urban) 7.6 Management implications and adaptation options 7.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 7.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 8: Financial Services (15 pp.) Executive Summary 8.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 8.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation 19.1 Financial aspects of impacts and adaptation 19.2 Institutional mechanisms to cover the cost of impacts and adaptation investment, including insurance, governmental, and multi-lateral mechanisms 8.5 Private-sector mechanisms, including primary insurance and reinsurance 8.6 Governmental and multilateral financial mechanisms 19.1 Other financial services 19.2 Case studies 8.9 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 8.10 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 9: Human Health (20 pp.) Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 9.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on health 9.3 Sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability 9.4 Thermal stresses (heatwaves, cold seasons) 9.5 Extreme weather events 9.6 Air pollution (gases, fine particulates) 9.7 Aeroallergens (spores, moulds, etc.) 9.8 Vector-borne infectious diseases 9.9 Other infectious diseases (esp. water-borne and food-borne) 9.10 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures; identification of key vulnerabilities; health as integrating concept and its relationship to water resources/quality, food/fiber security, natural and managed ecosystems interactions, and socio-economic disruption/migration; potential for non-linear interactions; and other cross-cutting issues 9.11 Science and information needs, including monitoring Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Each chapter will focus on key findings of the Regional Impacts Special Report and update regional baselines and trends (climate, socio-economic, and other environmental). Each chapter and subchapter will explore what has been learned regarding the context of change, sensitivity, adaptation, and vulnerability of key sectors and an integrated cross-sectoral and cross-regional analyses. The template will be tailored as appropriate for each region, giving full consideration to social/equity issues relevant to the region or sectors. Common template for each chapter Executive Summary X.1 Summary of the important issues in the Regional Impacts Special Report X.2 Baseline data, including climatic and socio-economic X.3 Regional scenarios X.4 Hydrology and water resources X.5 Ecosystems and agriculture, including food security X.6 Coastal zones and marine ecosystems, and sea-level change X.7 Energy, industry, and settlements X.8 Financial services X.9 Human health X.10 Integration and synthesis, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, adaptation potential and opportunities, valuation of systems and their services, potential for non-linear interactions, risks and uncertainties, and other cross-cutting issues. A variety of approaches will be used, including historical case studies, scenario analysis, thresholds, modeling, critical zones and populations, tolerable windows, and integrated assessment Chapter 10: Africa (25 pp.) Chapter 11: Asia (45 pp.) Chapter 12: Australasia (20 pp.) Chapter 13: Europe (25 pp.) Chapter 14: Latin America (25 pp.) Chapter 15: North America (25 pp.) Chapter 16: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic) (15 pp.) Chapter 17: Small Island States (25 pp.) Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis This section will focus on cross sectoral and cross regional analyses, building upon the preceding sections and considering cumulative effects. Such comparison will allow relative scaling of vulnerability across sectors and regions with respect to ecosystems, including wildlife, hydrology and water resources, agriculture and forestry, coastal zones and marine ecosystems, human settlements, financial services, and human health. This section will synthesize the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Chapter 18. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity (20 pp.) This chapter will analyze the opportunities for and barriers to adaptation identified in the regional chapters of the report. It will highlight options for a) the UNFCCC; b) multilateral organizations; c) national governments; and d) other actors (including the private sector) to facilitate adaptation, particularly for vulnerable populations, countries, or zones. The chapter will be organized around a series of key questions. Executive Summary 18.1 Summary of sectoral and regional changes, and adaptation options 18.2 Lessons learned from past experience with adaptation to climate variability and change, including discussion of importance of time frames 18.3 Factors that account for adaptation success (and failure), and current trends 19.1 Adaptation to climate change in the development context 19.2 Equity and adaptation to climate change 18.6 Barriers and limits that hinder adaptation, and options for enhancing successful adaptation Chapter 19: Synthesis and Integration of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (35 pp.) In this chapter, emphasis will be placed on Article 2 of the UNFCCC and key provisions [e.g., Articles 2.3, 3.14, and 10(d)] of the Kyoto Protocol, drawing on important issues that occur in many regions/sectors, or for which there will be cross-regional or global interactions. Potential global impacts of stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at a variety of levels will be assessed, including assessment of uncertainties. Information from the other sections of the report also will be integrated to address key policy-relevant questions identified by Parties to the UNFCCC and other stakeholders. The authors will assess vulnerability within the framework of sustainable development and equity, acknowledging common but differentiated responsibilities. The chapter will be divided into the following sections: Executive Summary 19.1 Impacts associated with different rates and magnitudes of change: A review of comprehensive approaches, including intercomparison of results 19.2 Comparative analysis of vulnerability in different regions and across different sectors/systems 19.3 Analysis of sensitivities and critical thresholds of change (magnitudes and rates) for sectors and systems, including biospheric components of the climate system 19.4 What observations are necessary to test estimates of the relationship between emissions trajectories and impacts? 19.5 The potential for unexpected changes 19.6 Strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, and implicit research needs 19.7 Analyses focusing on policy-relevant scientific/technical questions, including decisionmaking in the face of uncertainties; state of knowledge regarding the extent and distribution of vulnerability; equity issues; and, with Working Group III, balancing adaptation and mitigation. TOTAL PAGE LENGTH = ~450 pp. (plus references) 2849. 1998-10-15 18:24:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: tar_la@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_reved@earth.usgcrp.gov, wgii.bureau@earth.usgcrp.gov, ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:24:21 -0500 from: ddokken@usgcrp.gov (Dave Dokken) subject: Approved WG3 TAR Outline to: tar_cla@earth.usgcrp.gov IPCC WORKING GROUP III THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT OUTLINE Climate Change: Mitigation SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS TECHNICAL SUMMARY Chapter 0: Introduction Road map to the report Chapter 1: Scope of the report Executive Summary 1.1 The historical context of climate change mitigation 1.2 Policy-relevant scientific questions 1.3 Development, sustainability and equity in climate change mitigation in different sectors: key social, behavioural, ecological and economic issues 1.4 Alternative development pathways (e.g. structural change, social development) 1.5 Decision-making frameworks: an introduction Chapter 2: Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios and implications Executive Summary 2.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR 2.2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: summary and differences with TAR 2.3 Scenarios: definitions, methodologies, advantages and limitations 2.4 Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios, including scenarios that lead to stabilisation of the concentration of GHGs, and the associated socio-economic and technological assumptions 2.5 Policy implications of scenarios: development, sustainability and equity, technological change, timing, flexibility, robustness of options, relationships Chapter 3: Technological and economic potential of GHG emissions reduction [Chapter 3 deals with agricultural emissions of GHGs, chapter 4 deals with GHG emissions from forestry and carbon sequestration. ] Executive Summary 3.1 Introduction: summary of the SAR, progress since the SAR, definitions, time frame, regional breakdown, link with scenarios 3.2 Drivers of technological change and innovation 3.2.1 Research, development and demonstration 3.2.2 Societal and institutional factors, including market creation 3.3 For each of the following sectors: 3.3.1 Buildings 3.3.2 Transport 3.3.3 Industry 3.3.4 Agriculture 3.3.5 Wastes 3.3.6 Energy supply, including non-renewable and renewable resources, physical CO2 removal [The following issues are covered: * Summary of SAR * Historic and future trends * Different greenhouse gases * New technological and other options, including social and behavioural issues, consumption patterns * Regional differences * Technical and economic potential] Chapter 4: Technological and economic potential of options to enhance, maintain and manage biological carbon reservoirs and geo-engineering Executive Summary 4.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR 4.2 Special Report on Land-use, Land-use Change and Forestry: summary and relationship with SAR 4.3 Potential of terrestrial ecosystems to enhance sinks and mitigate CO2 emissions, taking into account competition with biofuel resources 4.4 Strategies: market and non-market options to enhance, maintain and manage biological carbon reservoirs 4.5 Socio-economic evaluation of mitigation options 4.6 Environmental evaluation of mitigation options, including influence on non-CO2 GHGs 4.7 Enhanced human-induced biological CO2 uptake in oceans and freshwater reservoirs and other types of geo-engineering Chapter 5: Barriers, opportunities and market potential of technologies and practices [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 3, 4 and 6] Executive Summary 5.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR 5.2 Summary of the Special Report on Technology Transfer 5.3 Financial, technological, political, legal, institutional, social and behavioural barriers and opportunities 5.4 Sector and technology-specific barriers, opportunities and market potential for the following sectors: 5.4.1 Buildings 5.4.2 Transport 5.4.3 Industry 5.4.4 Agriculture 5.4.5 Forestry 5.4.6 Wastes 5.4.7 Energy supply 5.5 Case studies illustrating barriers, opportunities as they are influenced by policies and measures (linking section with chapter 6) Chapter 6: Policies, measures and instruments [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 5, 8, and 9] Executive Summary 6.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR 6.2 National and international policy making context; relationships between national development policies and climate change mitigation: constraints, conflicts and "win-win" options 6.3 International policies and measures for mitigation 6.3.1 (combinations of) economic instruments, regulatory instruments, technology transfer, other 6.3.2 mechanisms contained in the articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto Protocol 6.3.3 social, behavioural, economic and institutional aspects, including equity, regional differences, investment patterns 6.4 National and sectoral policies and measures 6.4.1 (combinations of) economic instruments, regulatory instruments, voluntary agreements, R&D policies, innovation promotion, other 6.4.2 social, behavioural, economic and institutional aspects, including equity, regional differences 6.5 Interrelations between international and national policies, measures and instruments 6.6 Case studies illustrating barriers and opportunities as they are influenced by policies and measures (linking section with chapter 5) Chapter 7: Costing methodologies for mitigation (co-ordinated with WG-II) [This chapter should provide guidance to chapters 8 and 9. Methods for valuation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change and methods for costing of adaptation are addressed in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in TAR WG-III, chapter 10.] Executive Summary 7.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR; coverage, definitions 7.2 Important elements of costing methodologies at micro, meso and macro scale: including discount rates, equity and development aspects, importance of baselines, "system boundaries", uncertainties, market failures and externalities, revenue recycling, valuation of ancillary benefits, "win-win" options, differences between theory and practice 7.3 Issues in cost methodologies, including effects on income, equity, employment, trade, inflation, interest rates, availability of capital 7.4 Different approaches to cost assessments: top-down models, sector models, bottom-up analyses, hybrid models Chapter 8: Global, regional and national costs and ancillary benefits of mitigation [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 2, 6, 7 and 9; valuation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change is addressed in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in TAR WG-III, chapter 10.] Executive Summary 8.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR; coverage and definitions 8.2 Global, regional and national impacts of international mitigation policies and measures on such factors as (a) aggregate demand, terms of trade, employment, income distribution (b) social and environmental ancillary benefits 8.3 Global, regional and national impacts of domestic mitigation policies and measures on such factors as (as) aggregate demand, terms of trade, employment, income distribution, (b) social and environmental ancillary benefits 8.4 Spill-over effects: social, environmental and economic effects of measures in countries on other countries 8.5 Social, environmental and economic impacts of alternative pathways for meeting a range of concentration stabilisation levels 8.6 Discussion on why studies differ: influence of methods and baselines, the role of assumptions, including those on technology development Chapter 9: Sector costs and ancillary benefits of mitigation [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 2, 6, 7 and 8; evaluation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change is addressed in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in TAR WG-III, chapter 10.] Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction: summary or SAR and progress since SAR 9.2 Economic, social, and environmental impacts of policies and measures on prices, economic output, employment competitiveness and trade relations at the sector and subsector level 9.3 Spill-over effects: social, environmental and economic effects of measures in countries on sectors in other countries 9.4 Social, environmental and economic impacts on sectors of alternative pathways for meeting a range of concentration stabilisation levels 9.5 Discussion on why studies differ: influence of methods and baselines, the role of assumptions, including those on technology transfer Chapter 10: Decision making frameworks (co-ordinated with WG-II) Executive Summary 10.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR, different decision making frameworks 10.2 Policy-relevant scientific questions in climate change response, e.g. * Relationships between adaptation and mitigation * Relationships between early and delayed response * Relationships between domestic mitigation and the use of international mechanisms such as those contained in the Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Protocol * Mitigation by countries and sectors: equity and cost-effectiveness considerations * How can technology development, diffusion and transfer be facilitated to mitigate and adapt to climate change? 10.3 Decision analysis studies: e.g. cost-effectiveness, least cost, cost-benefit, tolerable windows/safe landing, risk management/decision making under uncertainty 10.4 Comparing available decision analyses with current decision making: global, regional and national implementation of the FCCC and implications of the Kyoto Protocol, Interaction with other objectives, Public and private sector decision making 10.5 Key aspects of decision making by looking at the literature beyond the economic and environmental sciences 10.6 Analysis of policy relevant scientific questions: integrating insights from different disciplines and Chapters 1-9 of TAR WG III 2573. 1998-10-15 18:27:58 ______________________________________________________ cc: tar_la@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_reved@earth.usgcrp.gov, wgii.bureau@earth.usgcrp.gov, ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:27:58 -0500 from: ddokken@usgcrp.gov (Dave Dokken) subject: Approved SRLFC Outline to: tar_cla@earth.usgcrp.gov IPCC SPECIAL REPORT Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry The Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry is being prepared in response to a request from SBSTA at its Eighth Session (Bonn, 2-12 June 1998). The outline of the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry was approved by the IPCC Panel at its Fourteenth Session. This outline responds to the SBSTA mandate and addresses issues raised in FCCC/SBSTA/1998/INF1. It has been designed to provide scientific, technical, economic and social information that can assist governments operationalize Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol. In addition it will provide information relevant to assessing the potential for other human-induced additional activities as mentioned in Article 3.4 and issues associated with operationalizing this Article. It also provides information relevant to other Articles of the Kyoto Protocol. While the Speciaql Report will primarily focus on carbon dioxide, it should address methane and nitrous oxide as appropriate. The Special Report will be policy relevant, but will not be policy prescriptive. The IPCC Panel has approved the topics that need to be addressed in the Special Report, but will allow the lead authors to re-organize the outline to minimize duplication of topics and ensure the most logical flow of information. The IPCC Panel did request that the outlines of the chapters dealing with Articles 3.3 and 3.4 be as parallel as possible. The Panel also recognized that the content of different chapters is closely linked, therefore, noting that many chapters will need to have common lead authors to ensure consistency. In addition, there is a need for common lead authors with the relevant chapters in the Third Assessment Report. The Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry will be approved and accepted by the Panel meeting in a Plenary Session since it cuts across the three working groups and the task force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI). The procedures for the preparation, review, acceptance, approval and publication of IPCC Special Reports shall apply. The Special Report will be chaired by R. Watson and guided by two "overall co-ordinating lead authors". Each chapter will have one or two co-ordinating lead authors in addition to numerous lead and contributing authors. There will be a steering committee for this Special Report comprising of the IPCC Chair, two IPCC Bureau members from each working group (one of the co-chairs and one vice chair) and the chair of the task force on inventories who will approve the selection of co-ordinating lead authors and lead authors and oversee the whole process. The Secretary of the IPCC and the heads of the working group technical support units will be ex-officio members of the steering committee. There will be a one-person technical support unit for this report located with the Chair, IPCC Secretary or one of the working group technical support units (funding and the identification of the individual for this position has yet to be identified). IPCC Special Report Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Summary for Policymakers (5-10 pages) Chapter 1 - Introduction and Mandate (2 pages) This chapter will briefly discuss the SBSTA mandate and the relationship of this Special Report to the IPCC Third Assessment Report. * Chapter 2 - Global Perspective (10 pages) This chapter will be a primer to explain how the carbon cycle operates, and the potential to influence the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by land-use activities. Executive Summary 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Biogeochemical Cycles (global stocks, flows, processes, timescales and uncertainties) 2.3. Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Role of Management (sources, sinks and stocks by land cover type, land-use and region) 2.4. Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions and Sequestration Potential (competition for land) 2.5. Features of Global Carbon Models and National Inventories Chapter 3 - Implications of Different Definitions and Generic Issues (30 pages) This chapter will focus on exploring the implications of different definitions on the Kyoto Protocol, the different methodologies that can be employed to measure and assess carbon stocks and pools, and issues associated with accounting and reporting. Executive Summary 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Implications of Different Definitions by Broad Category (e.g., forests, afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, forest degradation, sustainable forest management, restoration of degraded lands, agriculture and land practices, and full carbon accounting and its anthropogenic implications) 3.3 Measurement of Above and Below Ground Biomass and Soil Carbon (stocks -- remote sensing and in-situ; flows -- direct flux measurements and stock differences; accuracy and precision; verifiability; propagation of errors; effects of contiguous and non-contiguous commitment periods; integration and consistency of methods -- national inventories and modeling). 3.4 Accounting and Reporting Issues (Direct human-induced vs indirect human-induced vs natural; program vs project activities; baselines - 1990 baselines, 1990-2007 baselines; stock differences 2012-2008; attribution of stocks and changes in stocks -- pre-1990 vs post-1990 activities; fires and pests; permanence, additionality; leakage; techniques for treating uncertainties; and costs of accounting and reporting). Chapter 4: Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation Activities -- Article 3.3 (25 pages) This chapter will address a wide range of scientific and technical issues and options associated with Article 3.3 by region. Executive Summary 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Options for definitions and their general implications (afforestation, reforestation and deforestation) 4.3 Processes, timescales, and carbon accounting rules (pools; spatial scales -- project to biome to national inventory; direct vs indirect) 4.4 Data needs for operationalizing afforestation, reforestation and deforestation activities (observational and modelling methods for area change in land use and carbon stock for different time periods; operational implications of uncertainties; sensitivity analysis of uncertainties; verification) 4.5 Data availability (ground, aircraft and satellite data for land use/cover and carbon stocks in all pools by ecosystem - at the project, biome and national inventory scale; accuracy and precision; costs; models) 4.6 Regional and global potentials, differences and implications of afforestation, reforestation and deforestation activities (by pool; activity type -- policies, practices, and technologies; Annex I countries and by region) 4.7 Associated impacts of afforestation, reforestation and deforestation activities (environmental -- biodiversity, soil quality, watersheds, etc. and socio-economic -- poverty, employment, resettlement, agriculture, forestry, etc.) Chapter 5: Additional Human-Induced Activities -- Article 3.4 (30 pages) This chapter will address a wide range of issues associated with assessing the potential of additional human-induced activities mentioned in Article 3.4. It will also address issues that would arise in operationalizing Article 3.4. Executive Summary 5.1 Introduction (implications of Kyoto Protocol; ancillary benefits; sequestration, emissions reductions and substitution potential; additional human-induced activities -- Arable, Pastoral and Forestry Land Management, Restoration of Degraded Lands, Protected Areas, Agroforestry, Urban Expansion and Infrastructure, Modern Biomass Energy, etc.) 5.2 Processes, timescales and carbon accounting rules (pools; spatial scales -- project to biome to national inventory; direct vs indirect; temporary vs long-term sequestration) 5.3 Data needs for operationalizing Article 3.4 activities (past, present and projected land - use activities and cover; carbon pools; project and program; observational and modelling methods for area change in land use and carbon stock for different time periods; operational implications of uncertainties; sensitivity analysis of uncertainties; verification) 5.4 Potential magnitude of carbon sinks and sources by activity type, regionally and globally (barriers; costs and benefits; short vs long-term sequestration, including threats to permanence; accounting rules; detailed table on types of current land use and practices which have implications for C; detailed table on types of land use change and conversion; highlight important changes; competition for land; evolution vs additional activities) 5.6 Land Use and its relationship to carbon and energy (modern biomass and energy- intensive materials -- tables of specific options) 5.7 Associated impacts of additional activities (environmental -- biodiversity, soil quality, watersheds, etc. and socio-economic -- poverty, employment, resettlement, agriculture, forestry, etc.) Chapter 6: Project Based Activities (10 pages) This chapter will address the unique issues associated with project-based activities related to the Kyoto Protocol. Executive Summary 6.1 Introduction (relationship between projects, regional and national programs and national accounts; potential magnitude of activities in terms of land area and carbon) 6.2 Specific issues arising from the implementation of biotic activities (accounting units and procedures; baseline and additionality questions; leakage; permanence; risks and risk management strategies; associated costs, benefits and impacts, including employment) 6.3 Scientific and technical aspects of monitoring, evaluation and verification (protocols, approaches, costs and practicalities; uncertainties; pilot project experience) Chapter 7: Implications of the Kyoto Protocol for the Reporting Guidelines (10 pages) This chapter will review the adequacy of the IPCC reporting guidelines for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories in light of the Kyoto Protocol assess what changes may be required. It will also assess the scientific and technical elements of an IPCC reporting framework for project-level activities. Executive Summary 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Review of relevance of the IPCC Guidelines for reporting activities under the Kyoto Protocol (implications of proposed definitions discussed in this Special Report; country case studies) 7.2 Implications for potential additions and modifications to the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guidelines for different activities under the Kyoto Protocol (elements for carbon stock accounting; periodicity of input data and implications for assessing annual fluxes; alternative methods and approaches to the Revised Guidelines; potential additions and modifications to IPCC Modules for accounting) 7.4 Scientific and technical reporting framework for project-level activities for greenhouse gases (elements for reporting project-level activities; reporting monitoring and verification procedures; issues related to consistency and comparability with national inventories; integration of project with national inventories) 7.5 Supplementary information for reporting under the 1996 IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Guidelines (identify major gaps in knowledge) 2015. 1998-10-16 08:48:17 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 08:48:17 -0400 from: Sylvia Decotiis subject: Key Contributors IPCC Working Group I Lead Authors Meeting to: 'Rind David' , "'Frich, Povl'" , "'Robinson, David'" , "'Walsh, John'" Below is information for the IPCC Working Group I Lead Authors Meeting. I am sending it again in text for those of you who could not read the files I sent yesterday. Sylvia DeCotiis Secretary for Tom Karl IPCC Working Group I LEAD AUTHORS MEETING Paris, France November 30-December 2, 1998 Co-Convening Lead Authors --- Folland and Karl Lead Authors Christy, Clarke, Gruza, Jouzel, Mann, Oerlemans, Salinger, Wang Key Contributors Groisman(Precip/Extremes), Hurrell (tropospheric temperature and circulation), Hulme (Precip), Jones (Temp and Paleo), Parker (Upper Air), Peterson (Temp/Evap/Precip, extremes), Robinson (Snow Cover), Rind (Solar/Volcanic),Walsh(Sea Ice), Frich (extremes). Goals for Chapter 2 Authors A. Developing the Chapter 1) Transform existing Chapter 2 outline into a topic sentence, or list, outline highlighting areas to be covered within each section. 2) Develop a list of invited contributors, and contributions, on specific topics. 3) Liase with other Chapter Lead Authors especially the detection and attribution chapter and the model projection chapter. 4) Identify key diagrams. 5) Develop guidelines and timetables for submission of work to convening lead authors. 6) Identify any new calculations required and who might be able to carry them out. 7) For special diagrams/tables identify individuals who will produce the diagrams/tables. B. Special topic for presentations and discussion: Changing indices of Extremes Led by the leader (Tom Peterson), and deputy leader (Povl Frich) of a WMO CLIVAR/CCl ad hoc Task Group on Changing Climate Extremes, in consultation with Chris Folland. This ad hoc group was set up by a Task Group of the CLIVAR/CCl Working Group on Climate Change Detection in September 1998 and has started work. C. Practical arrangements for efficiently writing and distributing text and diagrams. One proposal, for discussion, is to put all Chapter 2 text and diagrams on one or two FTP sites. Text in WORD97. Diagrams in POSTSCRIPT and/or embedded as files in WORD97 and using a scanner where needed. This would only apply to the developing draft chapter, not individual contributions. Chapter 2 Outline and Assigned Areas of Primary Responsibility 1 The overall length of Chapter 2 should be about 25 two column pages including figures In the outline below Lead Authors are identified with key contributors and in some cases contributors as well. 2 Introduction Folland and Karl 2.1 Summary of progress since IPCC 1995 ---- Folland and Karl 2.2 Is the world warming? 2.2.1 Background ---- Folland and Karl 2.2.2 Surface temperature ---- Folland, Jones, Peterson,Salinger,Gruza, Karl 2.2.2.1 Land surface air temperature 2.2.2.2 Sea surface and ocean surface air temperature 2.2.2.3 Land and sea combined 2.2.2.4 Are the surface temperature trends consistent 2.2.3 Tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures Christy with Hurrell and Parker 2.2.3.1 Tropospheric trends 2.2.3.2 Lower stratospheric trends 2.2.3.3 Are tropospheric and surface trends consistent? 2.2.4 Volcanic and solar effects in the recent temperature record Folland with Rind & 2.2.5 Retreat of the glaciers including lake ice records Oerlemans 2.2.6 Trends in snow cover extent Oerlermans, Karl, with Robinson 2.2.6.1 Are the retreat of glaciers, lake ice records, and trends in snow cover consistent with surface temperature trends 2.2.7 Sea ice and thickness ---- Clarke with Walsh 2.2.8 Subsurface ocean temperatures ---- Clarke with Levitus & 2.2.9 Summary of Section 2.2 ---- All lead authors lead by Karl 2.3 Is the recent warming unusual? 2.3.1 Background Jouzel, Mann, Wang, Salinger with Jones (all of 2.3) 2.3.2 Climate of the past 1000 years 2.3.2.1 Ice core records 2.3.2.2 Borehole temperatures 2.3.2.3 Corals 2.3.2.4 Tree rings 2.3.2.5 Length of the growing season 2.3.2.6 Was there a Little Ice Age and a Medieval Warm Spell? 2.3.3 Summary of 2.3 ----- All lead authors lead by Folland 2.4 How rapidly did climate change in the past? 2.4.1 Background ---- Jouzel, Mann, Salinger with Jones all of 2.4 2.4.2 How stable was the Holocene climate? 2.4.3 How fast did climate change during the glacial period? 2.4.4 How stable was the previous interglacial? 2.4.5 Summary of 2.4 ---- All Lead Authors lead by Jouzel 2.5 How have precipitation and atmospheric moisture changed? 2.5.1 Background ---- Karl 2.5.2 Trends in precipitation---- Karl, Gruza, Groisman, Peterson with Hulme all of 2.5.2 2.5.2.1 Land 2.5.2.2 Ocean 2.5.2.3 Simultaneous changes of precipitation and temperature ---- Karl 2.5.3 Snowfall and snowdepth -----Karl with Groisman and Robinson 2.5.4 Land-surface and subsurface water 2.5.4.1 Streamflow ----Karl with Groisman, Salinger and Lattenmeir 2.5.4.2 Lake Levels -----Salinger, Karl with Groisman 2.5.4.3 Soil moisture ----Salinger with Peterson and Groisman 2.5.5 Evaporation--- Karl, Salinger with Peterson 2.5.5.1 Land 2.5.5.2 Ocean 2.5.6 Water Vapor--- Folland 2.5.6.1 Surface water vapor --- Folland with Gaffen 2.5.6.2 Tropospheric water vapor ---- Folland with Pan Mao Zhai, Gaffen, and Elliott 2.5.7 Clouds ---- Salinger and Karl with Dai 2.5.7.1 Land 2.5.7.2 Ocean 2.5.8 Summary of 2.5 All lead by Karl 2.6 Are the atmospheric/oceanic circulations changing? 2.6.1 Background, including new evidence for natural decadal variability ----- Folland 2.6.2 El Nino/Southern Oscillation ---- Salinger, Folland 2.6.3 NAO, PNA AO, and the COWL ---- Folland with Hurrell and Wallace 2.6.4 Northern hemisphere circulation ---- Folland, Gruza 2.6.5 Southern hemisphere circulation ---- Salinger 2.6.6 Summary of Section 2.6 ---- All Lead Authors lead by Folland 2.7 Has climate variability or climate extremes changed? ---- Karl, Gruza with Groisman, Jones all below 2.7.1 Background 2.7.2 Is there evidence for changes in climate variability? 2.7.2.1 Temperature 2.7.2.2 Precipitation 2.7.2.3 Atmospheric circulation 2.7.3 Are extreme weather events changing? 2.7.3.1 Tropical cyclones 2.7.3.2 Extra-tropical storminess 2.7.3.3 Intense precipitation events 2.7.3.4 Extreme temperature 2.7.3.5 Extreme surface moisture 2.7.3.6 Tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail, dust storms, and fire weather 2.7.4 Summary of Section 2.7 2.8 Is the climate really changing? 2.8.1 Are the observed trends internally consistent? Karl 2.8.2 What are the clearest changes? Folland and Karl REFERENCES IPCC TAR Chapter 2 Lead Authors Meeting Asheville, NC March 11-12, 1999 with related Chapter 2 workshops March 8 (8:30 a) - March 9 (1200) MSU, radiosonde, surface temperature controversy March 9 (2p) March 10 (6p) Trends in weather and climate extremes (update) SATELLITE DERIVED TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE RECORD: UNDERSTANDING BIASES. This is an invitation to attend a special meeting on understanding biases in the satellite derived tropospheric temperature record. The Co-Convening Lead Authors of Chapter 2 are holding a special meeting to clarify what is known and what remains to be understood regarding the MSU, radiosonde surface temperature controversy. There a series of question that we would like to address during the 1.5 day meeting. These are articulated below: 1. Exactly how is the latest version of MSU2R and MSU2 created, allowing for the various satellite drifts and offsets, including orbital altitude decay? Why does correction for the latter effect not influence MSU2R trends much. What is the interannual variability and trend in both over the tropics, remainder of the globe land and ocean? ? Are the latest MSU2 and MSU2R results dynamically compatible or possible? John Christy will lead this 2. How do model simulations (AGCM, CGCM) of changes in temperature lapse rates (at all levels from the surface to lower stratosphere) compare with MSU2R and MSU2 especially when natural (e.g. volcanoes) and anthropogenic forcings are included? What do they show over the longer term? What are the shapes of any lapse rate changes? What about long control runs, what can they tell us about possible changes in lapse rate over on decadal time scales? Simon Brown will present new results 3. Are the surface data free from time-varying biases, especially in the last few decades. Are land surface, SST and marine air temperature compatible? Why do we see a sudden cooling in the night marine air temperature around 1991 in parts of the tropics, relative to SST, that still persists? 4. How are state of the art radiosonde data sets created? What biases etc remain? How do state of the art radiosonde analyses compare to MSU and model simulations? Is there evidence for real decadal variations in the lower tropospheric lapse rate since the 1950s? Where? How much can we believe any variations or changes? David Parker to talk 5. What is the way forward for resolving the MSU trend debate before completion of the IPCC TAR? IPCC TAR Chapter 2 Lead Authors Meeting Asheville, NC March 11-12, 1999 with related Chapter 2 workshops March 8 (8:30 am) - March 9 (noon) MSU, radiosonde, surface temperature controversy March 9 (2pm)- March 10 (6pm) Trends in weather and climate extremes (update) TRENDS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES: UPDATE SINCE JUNE 1997 ASHEVILLE CONFERENCE The purpose of this meeting is to invite the authors of the chapters physical climate articles of the special edition of Climatic Change (in press) to focus on new information that may be used for the IPCC TAR report. A series of talks will also be invited to discuss topics related to the IPCC TAR Chapter 2 Section 7 outline on trends in extreme weather and climate events (enclosed). Additional requests for plenary lectures should be made to Tom Karl by January 1, 1999. Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Key Contributors IPCC Working G1" 503. 1998-10-16 09:46:16 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 09:46:16 +0200 from: Laurie.MICHAELIS@oecd.org subject: A1 wording to: sres@iiasa.ac.at How about something along the lines of. While the high average level of income per capita contributes to a great improvement of the overall health and social conditions of the majority of people, this world is not without its problems. In particular, many communities could face some of the social challenges that have been experienced in the wealthiest countries in the late 20th century. From: Laurie Michaelis Tel +33 1 45 24 98 17 Fax +33 1 45 24 78 76 OECD Environment Directorate 2 rue André-Pascal 75775 Paris CEDEX 16 France 2057. 1998-10-17 10:09:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:09:48 +0400 (MSD) from: From to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk trwcrn.rwm Tree-ring widths (TRW) chronology: -------------------------------------------------------------------- Ident., Trees, Inent. N (trees) No. No. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1) 118 all living and dead 2209-years chronology 2)* 4 MAY,925,927,928, CHA044 3)* 1 CHA-H1 4)* 1 MAY702 5)* 1 NOV001 6)* 1 CHA-H6 7)* 1 NOV078 8)* 1 NOV-A02 9)* 1 CHA005 10)* 1 NOV029 11)* 5 CHA060,012,009,017,001 --------------------------------------------------------------------- * - calibrated radiocarbon age 1) all living and dead 2209-years chronology 2209=N -212=I 1) 118 samples -5(13F6.0)~ 23000 24000 42000 14000 27000 21000 13000 28000 20000 30000 38000 65000 58000 54000 66000 65000 16000 55000 46000 56000 53000 68000 29000 21000 48000 15000 29000 25000 32000 22000 31000 29000 18000 27000 53000 41000 35000 47000 66000 89000 52000 28000 34000 39000 33000 25000 28000 36000 32000 43000 47000 63000 49000 49000 50000 56000 40000 42000 46500 65000 28000 30500 55000 40500 44500 24500 24500 50500 6500 22500 39000 37000 54000 30000 47500 41000 23000 52000 56000 46000 35000 44000 71000 53000 73000 87000 64000 53000 44000 52000 48500 41000 45000 50000 61500 42000 48000 58500 44000 50000 78500 62500 46000 73500 45000 90500 64000 99000 64000 53500 90000 80000 45000 64000 87500 37000 55500 74500 88500 61500 58500 66000 88500 76500116500 84500 88500 44500 70500 26000 46000 51000 15000 42000 55000 81000 76000 67000 61000 34000 28000 24000 54000 34000 46000 27000 37000 33000 53000 56000 51000 52000 52000 64000 58000 39000 48000 35000 51000 49000 37000 43000 55000 32000 39000 57000 34000 29000 45000 49000 11000 33000 45000 36000 36000 32000 32000 41000 43000 30000 15000 43000 16000 23000 50000 46000 30000 23000 10000 38000 26000 28000 26000 19000 21000 27000 27000 18000 11000 20000 12000 16000 12000 24000 16000 20000 22000 11000 28000 22017 28065 21856 12882 14098 22014 25112 35140 14161 1219 19996 13315 13517 10704 15207 19702 19134 16446 3039 17992 25257 15901 23191 23203 1000 27479 15919 11296 19473 10860 19530 15335 26299 9411 5291 31041 12069 4539 27818 7493 10411 7919 10605 9945 17887 14974 13111 12423 8397 3226 22759 13618 10784 12556 15426 18972 22968 16454 17000 19389 10860 16583 17472 16410 29186 14931 19302 13833 21143 7466 21325 6210 18981 19848 12337 19850 26400 18285 20246 31337 23294 13450 17941 34285 38733 27586 32435 25338 21392 32594 28435 35517 40156 18777 23268 28298 30149 19095 25926 42906 39255 34173 22065 29118 17902 27172 38119 37347 25090 6500 34301 26855 5941 38507 35826 14832 22651 22197 36162 32763 24581 31479 25689 34191 36718 42915 26990 26878 43824 34625 32174 57385 51360 55039 55054 37906 18168 34882 34761 41604 12657 13161 16197 31916 24132 21855 30630 36385 30745 24153 40741 30006 33620 26577 33367 26186 38229 29349 52789 47438 35978 47997 17548 51853 46033 28743 12085 27608 34020 17925 32088 34944 33101 4081 30879 17446 15978 28435 18335 35868 22251 21528 34309 2773 6384 9014 19779 23547 26701 11470 22866 13911 18834 21164 20124 10157 23354 23804 25057 14675 20483 14798 8351 21108 8335 10598 17069 23246 30087 13235 14254 15864 2164 9347 19932 7031 20000 12181 12757 3687 20469 14247 10620 8746 28494 27058 13708 17022 20529 15788 28236 10115 19326 18135 23963 15390 7162 17279 32849 31069 16989 24420 13018 25653 14928 27235 23283 18571 29915 27266 33951 24041 47844 47675 44769 46163 46952 19771 23019 38639 34723 33079 33469 21124 29181 20774 26725 29081 34518 17204 28940 37208 32775 58976 10594 42606 48863 36946 32213 41849 27432 39733 16259 35834 34341 62407 42028 44445 35859 29798 36765 23502 18434 20274 45121 21526 24560 31877 34800 38334 20428 8781 37238 19716 7604 19439 30829 32487 20464 29784 31750 31928 23184 25438 32931 32310 39233 32585 27749 35201 28107 26776 28485 12709 15027 33760 11325 31204 31662 30223 36039 40012 25509 8772 19157 35361 17630 29531 29212 31187 24300 4562 21532 31632 10503 29400 31222 25730 28030 26917 4688 12078 26173 26710 9482 10246 28444 24912 24827 28289 17974 20492 7018 21514 34516 33310 36256 44727 45114 28650 23419 33516 11778 43465 20220 25175 23955 21139 26410 28461 35890 14156 38692 4772 28678 23572 30616 34457 38619 34856 26276 23577 22361 19873 37267 34284 15317 24184 48975 37987 31429 35273 18054 43859 16763 36500 38608 21093 31207 32854 30413 13416 33594 19433 30082 19389 15758 27999 39612 44671 37417 39594 37086 28268 12974 30605 29249 37753 33663 11363 36143 21306 46288 16113 30107 18372 38803 28205 29546 14434 46587 26678 41108 43586 37374 30224 28331 31544 30825 32838 26578 33066 20678 36675 25315 28839 26035 37685 30226 24501 28528 33510 51162 13581 21995 29417 32967 23924 14920 20805 20512 25141 25598 25703 18462 17040 21751 16046 21996 18069 20342 35014 28332 35165 35442 33871 33850 27816 23579 31256 28535 12889 22552 32800 23463 18168 23192 13514 12918 18007 9645 12635 13072 21150 14148 23932 9018 12498 18710 16600 21805 7213 22851 15759 15814 15200 23895 13963 25953 17684 20987 27162 17110 30437 32360 29106 16759 32655 33595 19709 33258 6052 26222 17722 34334 39148 11789 42244 36821 1797 4814 13594 26070 12939 6916 23229 4446 10246 7540 13714 22299 20476 19088 13476 18404 3900 19064 32509 18843 22990 28820 26310 43229 39537 31840 28824 37437 49123 36642 26598 35534 22271 52498 57130 24689 41995 27017 30140 37749 57837 25520 46108 54090 49658 45089 24465 57550 46258 47711 57767 40029 55404 32947 54873 46590 58746 34993 54879 61748 27910 32067 31872 7046 36295 37264 37901 26789 30777 43434 37700 29501 43272 44470 25658 40156 29332 20015 29524 36727 36948 31928 29953 19737 41447 12328 39805 22439 26927 23239 39549 7098 15840 20929 23772 15353 28007 22955 21463 24290 8873 17708 27278 21769 28332 18403 23837 14195 28935 20013 26065 23293 17814 25742 24984 18238 28932 31088 8914 36008 13544 29850 32271 43589 40051 23543 16407 22265 30511 16002 27839 32794 22413 10217 39905 27802 20776 26814 33852 34807 22456 20637 4815 21855 37894 25930 1818 6596 23364 29193 17672 24675 23853 5993 1193 29426 28114 14413 24810 26160 25576 11685 23679 28930 27702 26763 11733 36410 22337 39023 39591 5069 35118 21200 20396 8735 31218 18536 17272 31415 7196 22859 27298 25531 19425 10399 23570 12696 8352 15032 18992 14626 15444 18765 19280 16423 13234 21223 18692 21367 30821 15418 19031 27041 18009 33393 21949 9369 17344 27753 26670 14494 37218 36654 23904 16576 15594 29869 8638 29094 10394 19081 16729 39305 24061 16216 18959 35626 30247 34454 27558 23983 33922 24609 29676 30460 18236 15331 13953 11694 24988 14321 19124 20936 4785 26340 29808 33539 20732 42390 43144 48471 35663 44234 58963 18491 38119 42704 34253 30509 45563 28242 40627 26959 19787 30831 17054 29454 14203 11907 23517 12541 22802 33360 23233 45317 36219 25209 18721 16921 19920 27720 26663 34059 49228 40157 24209 39570 35193 26808 7585 20873 18554 23309 30212 16812 20517 23079 11592 18401 30493 24638 26735 13995 36813 48920 40278 28927 47026 31865 20986 39037 34740 33252 38718 22690 19176 35577 2580 11231 25408 24867 15897 22064 19354 25936 36895 19666 28904 37001 44624 50833 37233 36536 10932 23639 22069 37132 32183 18924 14646 39770 48286 41257 61823 38685 48732 17881 14121 42920 48009 43173 31532 31883 41708 27496 35394 21644 60068 59735 39445 37137 52625 62747 31373 22840 37017 4124 18122 16422 23362 11732 27172 29596 28005 12863 26527 33936 40401 25001 19088 35345 14541 41458 29285 35867 35215 41416 40820 28276 29922 54348 48932 45189 27202 40680 22536 12274 11911 15438 31847 15518 32623 16994 6958 28295 12391 20124 15200 3872 19066 6154 16046 21994 9883 13803 18203 7738 24826 25802 41665 39420 10082 23138 36672 23293 15780 30997 32336 56083 52873 12327 57182 35586 39138 25576 20923 11457 19626 15096 25439 32855 38655 44821 46423 37342 52026 68594 56632 41091 56548 10213 47772 55599 47835 50947 38083 45772 33426 42712 34339 15275 23257 18921 15782 25821 22725 11567 21104 29535 19800 39800 27438 11278 22770 28603 19851 33342 52927 32471 27769 46087 43229 17067 37574 15950 24974 27458 24971 20471 11634 36141 41870 25253 34853 36198 40878 37941 32716 14577 17551 29037 15527 27155 30336 16565 13659 17427 17985 15333 28674 31912 33061 21280 39694 16494 20841 27794 13885 2565 19240 20764 14003 15234 17235 32861 32447 37592 43724 40821 49210 38946 15957 19545 27864 13492 27344 42029 37682 27146 11498 40925 31045 29398 27439 38022 32927 49087 49043 49449 35359 36962 24378 36666 31602 50729 24814 62188 46992 57665 8994 31133 41369 49188 49729 34232 51923 44904 33188 44207 52862 39145 33680 38792 39171 26952 39862 49060 53489 47236 46363 57434 40117 62997 50508 35887 11315 40273 26840 11259 22813 29683 23477 9655 45503 48217 39129 57846 36584 54067 27905 34950 53044 49242 6346 26682 60001 42356 39453 38095 28854 32367 43999 43182 76475 9980 26734 37163 32521 56584 52948 47244 45685 57133 54086 22626 57892 25345 31469 14592 13839 30265 43116 32693 39278 17673 47578 16717 40561 32427 46271 70501 45415 38845 32493 52634 28619 43829 41729 49462 16162 21579 36292 22750 23572 28727 33052 21509 13640 26083 3888 31372 24734 25512 27071 31571 24681 30374 24534 33169 12625 20093 53206 17146 4073 38241 27796 10701 20413 24781 13696 14691 28574 14242 17157 26778 36497 29876 10106 36171 30465 36840 30557 36331 47945 55943 49453 23943 40887 18421 35653 7226 20925 16290 39092 30054 33829 21976 27694 36015 25317 41708 28307 18924 28561 25760 21980 32029 24752 35831 31853 29046 13943 13463 29012 27598 46246 15320 14192 32116 25571 32122 37198 21309 24451 7718 29199 25351 12890 36031 18695 18575 27989 21409 22320 26659 23255 6836 11240 14685 10076 20696 16281 8961 25734 18756 22537 6889 12456 22313 13306 15308 15505 17235 10645 30885 6203 18640 26682 10589 16431 28376 17826 6304 17627 27904 30156 32025 27955 46022 22728 14528 20370 26056 21896 28926 34096 22612 41428 48536 56094 40957 53286 50459 32060 44338 44482 41154 13807 11326 3297 11426 7576 26075 16469 17875 40687 38680 42653 4189 15048 13883 31267 30324 8534 19704 27760 28691 32492 52563 38623 37560 27673 33206 25809 42342 53294 36139 40726 48492 45376 34414 24610 35000 20567 34436 15964 36710 32282 31438 38330 35359 34186 40505 38729 11085 23307 29585 45856 30278 35038 28031 61066 71654 75101 44821 39539 5015 23301 32435 16773 42902 38394 35250 38140 50031 34522 47063 39538 37625 44671 19419 26965 49777 39253 37798 39380 60435 32630 31485 47937 32777 43802 30784 47142 37691 30497 28847 43470 41648 37101 40726 16574 33858 35558 42346 32535 35480 39239 19817 17962 40171 19816 37158 48680 26345 38391 56809 20909 43281 26427 28300 10520 11234 37255 28329 33247 37494 15393 17142 30050 24568 30868 25822 26042 29408 8962 34690 23488 22172 23157 30993 11397 34005 23622 34032 29107 33019 39124 10729 45917 29799 21484 11154 19750 10963 25793 29698 16148 30739 40478 28837 11405 28409 42056 28589 36331 30851 14922 29795 35541 30907 29046 30087 31996 24960 10172 22222 47286 32457 29091 29240 24873 14528 23808 17266 29730 13252 16810 11011 21315 17198 20894 28959 19943 11296 13434 9382 17430 13696 25412 27865 23093 7885 13852 25494 22304 5032 21311 21766 32202 24233 32537 34665 21149 4541 17197 21595 10014 17248 23052 9932 26619 24058 31319 24079 32681 26048 23140 12880 14733 33067 20015 18721 29651 26843 21754 30090 35288 33385 22382 30894 14728 26071 25792 23771 32227 27265 24298 26117 10108 33626 11545 13202 32819 20454 20939 12584 32712 11446 29923 24529 21244 2000 29325 10270 18780 14979 29992 17247 22835 19369 36933 31079 14026 18997 22716 11568 16741 26364 20229 24592 20948 24879 29982 19867 19478 31888 17419 22989 28106 21737 4936 12040 15016 18961 5235 18167 24849 18367 27222 23919 14306 20386 33748 14910 22044 19999 22210 27410 29148 38037 12635 33100 44025 36026 9169 22049 10997 26327 23360 15028 14360 25476 19163 18067 32330 14489 31136 28690 24305 13269 27592 35264 13291 29446 26123 19894 18688 21564 28586 40368 33895 36981 22843 28835 25897 31387 15225 17297 21077 21867 12440 14398 19166 13061 11008 20385 14993 7768 23283 20160 17045 26833 22701 26387 23256 27723 21111 32775 7176 14600 6560 4525 15770 14353 9099 15162 24470 36183 31308 31823 19556 30681 26487 20038 29204 35066 17925 36458 32013 32462 8064 28601 25226 27308 24907 17930 24206 28880 26326 46087 11387 42678 40037 31112 25112 32453 36598 19521 23389 36012 27063 36490 35092 22232 9785 37702 38043 30604 35077 43926 47220 41646 34102 26212 39082 25302 17634 23170 24958 41060 25989 17794 6167 29321 25024 31646 23853 40694 40252 44804 27458 47022 24027 27829 24725 8566 25765 37958 26832 44567 34530 16105 27248 26055 34928 27453 39903 34871 26434 37469 24709 39487 30218 22976 28462 41952 49108 25851 32901 22448 18331 29066 10315 28571 29070 32664 32870 28318 40625 10357 35280 25849 23649 19720 8395 12389 17508 13577 16774 11858 18736 6479 12156 19628 23655 22221 18061 6689 17556 20901 29764 30796 7261 32870 14236 5948 23671 27600 21503 20273 15348 15678 27342 22366 27979 21643 19756 20343 27883 18753 21325 9415 21976 11436 37690 27274 28101 25355 33940 30386 34422 25320 52582 45733 36687 35368 37902 42693 22233 16666 45695 7105 21338 22127 26892 13168 12589 29874 19946 38389 42508 38118 44281 34808 34262 42548 20033 17134 18463 34504 32362 18734 22133 37281 30119 18316 28807 26584 45163 45681 23834 13205 14869 29485 27289 22233 23254 13266 19679 17399 43549 17745 22862 19067 10631 18321 26515 32895 29419 28948 38780 37180 30926 21697 33762 31089 41763 25857 40686 14920 39838 35513 36599 27497 43523 38081 35011 32143 40349 36135 43614 51856 50396 67195 57225 61241 41440 65260 48097 28219 48738 24261 40273 29658 36309 51236 32544 40954 36983 33193 27788 32247 29070 28358 30658 23016 35060 22024 25796 37168 21417 28881 28177 23317 24240 15012 13238 22566 26812 17797 23989 38457 13285 22011 26412 25138 40011 18164 32288 21720 33763 9829 29992 21171 21000 10000 24000 12000 19000 2) MAY,925,927,928, CHA044 296=N -670=I 2) 4 samples (MAY925,927,928, CHA044) -5(13F6.0)~ 42000 76000 35000 37000 35000 27000 47000 24000 95000105000128000 94000102000 51000 37000 26000 38000 30000 35000 20000 37000 19000 16000 39000 50000 44000 78000 44000 69000 79000 66000 31000 55000 32000 34000 17000 51000 22750 26000 55000 55250 43500 37750 28250 61250 33750 55500 28750 51750 38500 42000 22250 39250 46750 41750 32500 39250 23000 34000 15000 22750 3250 9250 21000 24250 15250 26500 13250 15500 33750 50750 27500 9750 48000 67500 71500 70500 54500 59000 54500 44750 31000 23250 42250 26250 44750 54750 56000 44750105500 44000 33250 43250 30750 47250 40750 34000 33750 50750 59250 43500 72000 42000 35250 42500 37500 47750 51000 84750 47000 73000 28500 59000 56750 46000 58000 28000 23500 16000 13500 25500 27000 49500 31500 58000 80000 83000 73000 35500 74750 43750 16750 12000 43000 27750 24750 26250 45250 43250 35250 38000 49500 35000 14250 41000 44000 36500 39000 16750 54750 60250 65500 54250 36750 57250 63778 58250 88583 83250 72250 97563117313 75875 75750 76250 38000 85563 82938 92500 77313 98125 28250 33313 51688 42063 73438 49938 92375 32563 65125 48188 55125 51688 63250 48125 82688 57188 99813 74313 63750 85625 39063 58563 87750 77438 19063 79563 58750 35063 47750 36188 56750 63125 65938 49917 91833 41833 60833 55917 94083 58083 66417 84167 84250115167102750103417 52583 72333 52000 86917 92167 58167 37750 41583 43000 40333 65417 43750 58667 18667 34250 52667 77583 46917 48417 37583 54500 45833 64417 41000 28167 44417 39000 33500 23111 7167 27667 40000 14500 13833 34500 20667 28833 35333 36000 16167 29667 32667 28500 23167 32833 33667 21167 29500 18167 23500 29333 23167 19167 18750 14750 12750 27250 19500 19000 12250 8250 21000 24000 7000 21000 26000 28500 24000 18000 10500 21000 9000 10000 7000 8000 16000 3000 13000 8000 3) CHA-H1 306=N -1398=I 3) 1 sample (CHA-H1) -3(20F4.0)~ 710 520 595 790 500 760 775 425 640 410 295 115 295 405 335 305 245 575 465 365 11701070 710 630 430 315 615 640 625 540 365 310 755 295 665 550 460 90 565 735 905 310 755 425 660 590 690 640 765 770 640 405 645 475 595 490 705 480 760 840 375 415 675 650 650 390 770 935 815 465 660 705 980 645 595 920 715 280 490 400 925 7501015 890 740 9201085 595 685 755 440 260 450 160 215 430 235 515 695 505 300 605 395 530 120 60 420 500 480 260 510 485 420 515 765 475 395 675 265 475 455 465 740 690 280 705 670 795 480 465 455 940 5551210 855 805 740 790 85 465 405 340 615 735 280 115 510 685 610 165 280 500 765 760 960 685 715 385 300 555 325 365 235 305 55 215 410 415 600 65 415 315 130 35 200 135 500 295 360 330 510 415 755 765 490 305 185 145 45 225 315 215 335 325 200 165 270 255 305 280 315 160 410 345 415 340 325 385 340 185 405 100 365 250 315 320 415 355 125 410 425 235 270 540 415 340 470 295 525 375 385 235 320 320 125 175 140 80 155 225 265 255 50 30 170 150 80 50 135 80 65 230 285 430 295 195 245 340 245 255 285 405 290 395 390 450 250 400 225 250 385 325 285 400 325 315 475 170 85 55 95 235 180 290 235 400 495 585 640 465 280 510 350 740 5601100 930 380 400 580 350 650 500 540 510 580 4) MAY702 270=N -2456=I 4) 1 sample (MAY702) -2(26F3.0)~ 83 71101 76 62 66 89124144164 11 95 99 74 70 78 85122 55178202161102130153109 123128153124147152 68173 97131147134111 94 80106 55 72 98 22 58 28 66 76 36 73 2 65 27 32 48 43 56 39 18 43 33 17 33 36 30 31 15 39 28 37 33 27 23 32 30 16 29 21 17 25 29 18 35 35 36 15 28 25 26 23 21 26 25 16 14 16 21 31 26 2 20 16 30 32 26 23 25 40 9 20 35 41 17 12 20 17 13 26 18 25 13 29 20 12 23 15 14 10 10 19 11 15 12 17 12 10 16 9 10 2 18 14 10 16 5 13 5 4 9 7 12 10 19 21 13 16 14 32 6 16 27 18 14 9 18 7 11 21 17 11 13 5 16 14 21 17 14 12 14 19 16 18 15 21 22 17 13 26 4 21 7 9 14 7 23 26 29 8 15 17 13 18 13 12 12 12 13 16 16 16 7 21 6 7 4 16 18 5 10 11 9 24 9 18 13 10 11 7 3 12 5 9 11 7 11 10 12 40 34 9 16 2 10 13 13 2 8 5 2 6 3 9 2 8 4 6 8 10 6 3 14 6 13 9 6 2 5 9 5) NOV001 246=N -2923=I 5) 1 sample (NOV001) -2(26F3.0)~ 2 24 4 46 49 46 31 20125114115 71 33115148130 81 58 75107104 57119179106182 169117127160187162143170102174 60112 93 34 17 72 76 86100 94109125137 62104133 139 89 99 61 92 40 94 67 16 93 86136 90 60 60 40 78 79 79133 74 81120159 82103 70 52 72 36 83 65 39108 68 79142127 56 83116138133 62 71 51 77 49113128103158 106 51 54 71 88 70149 60 14 26 43 23 89 35 64100 84 67108 78 48 52 44 22 52 52 57 13 64 29 43 22109 71 47 37 89 74 93 82 29 52 50 34 64 53 16 8 32 19 38 18 20 46 40 36 49 15 17 47 43 15 19 31 49 26 29 36 19 25 53 8 36 35 52 46 22 29 26 43 31 42 22 14 46 48 17 30 49 17 60 51 48 43 32 42 33 21 21 13 28 24 20 38 40 73 37 36 41 48 47 13 73 28 45 24 46 18 34 33 13 59 21 38 51 22 28 24 31 28 25 17 10 10 16 23 14 26 14 20 11 18 6) CHA-H6 345=N -3178=I 6) 1 sample (CHA-H6) -2(26F3.0)~ 71 90 55 99 41 94 87138157143113 98188184168144147136 66 91 65 26 95 87 62 58 93 21 50106 79 61 68 50 85 21101 68 96 73 94 84 65 71 78 46 91 81 79 64 73 33 49 39 71 42 82102 67 23 26 49 11 55 60 71103 91 65 61 68 38 42 47 42 50 33 37 63 50 62 90104 87 26 58 72 52 17 9 32 22 18 44 67 78 40 76 29 62 63 57 29 4 20 31 30 16 31 51 55 52 42 28 15 50 72 58 73 59 71 67 34 29 48 29 51 41 61 20 31 11 34 43 40 31 45 19 44 39 48 56 29 41 11 40 44 30 40 27 32 58 5 81 18 16 31 6 38 6 44 67 15 52105 63 97 67 33 29 43 47 87 70 39 76 63 79 54 83 33 43 57 4 24 55 85 68 72 75 40 44 27 42 29 54 67 43 47 31 33 19 4 20 26 34 38 47 13 17 30 24 38 5 20 19 15 12 29 19 43 25 24 31 4 20 19 20 3 34 2 52 26 42 28 46 31 42 36 17 31 6 28 34 64 35 33 34 7 22 14 31 7 22 5 20 7 15 4 15 13 2 37 24 8 22 34 32 19 27 31 56 27 2 28 10 21 37 18 20 9 27 18 27 9 7 1 11 5 27 26 36 52 40 50 42 14 23 4 25 10 38 26 40 56 35 72 38 74 80 32 42 39 20 14 28 25 8 23 28 23 44 29 54 79 28 29 36 39 45 86 94 11 51 8 3 28 5 13 15 11 6 18 1 26 7) NOV078 299=N -3358=I 7) 1 sample (NOV078) -2(26F3.0)~ 55 86139 68 20 40136142152115153161154170 95134136113106101 83119184 81166118 92 18 78160117118 84 90132114 43112123 60 52 34 30 30 8 52 9 21 30 13 49 3 58 52 18 25 22 33 24 60 27 44 32 39 18 33 43 60 72 81 75 67116 87 25 81 38 41 41 71 80 93 53 34 78 67 75 82 48 66 18 49 36 41 21 6 10 44 90 53 23 63 98 33 68 83 50104 88 70 66 60 82 65 41 80 88111 41 45 48 60 29 47 46 50 58 73 50 90 39 73 46 68 27 68 93 55 51 83 80 40 43 72 23 40 77 86 91 60 67 47 20 20 32 50 32 37 41 30 31 30 23 19 40 12 27 46 56 58 31 30 20 16 33 30 48 25 22 36 41 50 24 42 28 20 46 44 19 18 25 23 22 8 37 42 25 6 22 10 20 18 25 29 20 22 23 13 17 18 36 20 33 32 6 25 26 37 37 33 16 27 38 18 45 41 29 44 42 57 27 53 17 16 32 17 7 20 22 20 17 22 7 14 7 18 16 6 18 25 24 19 34 14 14 17 15 10 29 24 40 53 10 47 29 15 35 27 39 32 22 63 28 49 50 64 47 21 34 9 29 27 12 21 34 20 43 31 34 31 32 14 41 59 42 34 25 33 24 8) NOV-A02 286=N -3457=I 8) 1 sample (NOV-A02) -5(13F6.0)~ 83000 84500 67500 62000 50500 64500106500 96500 75500 82500 83000 83000 84500 94000 73000 73000 64500 72000 75500 94000 93000 52667 66667 56333 53000 57000 35333 46000 8000 5500 24000 32500 30000 19000 22000 37000 27500 37500 22500 29500 33000 32500 54500 70500 42000 61000 69000 84000 68000 73500 52000 70500 77000 91000112500 59000 14500 80000 47000 74500 64000116500 56500 88000 89500 54500 56000 83000 58000 21000 67500 86500 85500 97000 86000 94500109000 70500 65500 52000 82500 50500 39500 48500 49500 55000 54500 57000 47500 45000 66000 77000 78000 76000 54000 68000 58500 21000 28000 14500 46500 29000 48500 37000 41500 19000 28000 29500 31000 38500 22000 11500 28500 25500 28000 27500 34000 22000 30000 62500 49500 38500 38000 47000 43000 46500 39500 39000 44000 40500 45500 38500 74500 38500 42000 22500 30000 46000 41000 22500 37000 31500 19500 4000 12500 26000 32000 43000 37500 43000 53000 72500 62500 46000 58500 7000 25500 40500 51000 64000 89000 70000 81000 47500 77500 20500 70000 84000 71000 76000 56000 54500 76500 59500 35000 51000 62500 39500 41500 28500 48000 23000 25500 28500 36000 4000 21000 20000 13500 6500 12500 5500 21000 14500 21500 14000 5000 12500 2000 32500 28000 26500 29000 9000 29000 37500 22500 14000 41000 22000 1500 5000 23000 11500 19000 20000 26000 24000 29000 15000 11500 28000 21500 26500 42000 22000 22000 8500 22000 18000 8500 7500 16500 20500 30500 18500 39500 22000 17000 28500 21000 30000 49500 35500 54000 34500 65500 53000 55500 44500 43500 75000 76000 56000 63500 39500 37000 10500 38000 48000 53000 67500 82000 71000 89500103500 85500 83000107000 67000105500117500 78000 123000139500 97500122000 99500 78500 60000 69000 76000 66500 67500 44500 11000 9) CHA005 198=N -3513=I 9) 1 sample (CHA005) -2(26F3.0)~ 28 66 47 28 20 50 50 36 44 38 29 38 25 22 19 17 10 18 9 16 9 10 16 19 18 19 13 14 16 12 10 22 17 17 23 34 38 40 37 67 92 56 41 52 60 47 57 52 77100 90103 80 49 50 56 38 47 34 44 25 31 47 65 94 91 39 29 62 40 60 44 34 33 43 41 49 34 63 56 38 43 44 41 33 38 37 38 48 30 46 31 15 13 16 30 41 43 51 50 43 56 69 67 30 37 52 59 43 44 53 43 64 52 40 47 17 34 35 35 52 26 32 52 43 44 16 10 37 44 28 39 33 39 38 56 27 58 33 58 79 67 38 24 38 30 38 39 44 19 34 32 28 25 29 27 25 30 57 55 40 34 47 49 51 37 34 35 24 17 28 35 43 38 56 62 88 79 81 69 85 38 60 73 78 52 73 38 53 81109121 93 85124116145141 10) NOV029 306=N -3634=I 10) 1 sample (NOV029) -2(26F3.0)~ 129159235264201202138213132154 98111136129125115106 62100126101107108104175111 43 15 47 53 54108 83119 57 64 81 71 74 44 30 72 82 43 38 82 43 41117 98 98102 68 74 88 57 47 78 61 94124168 58 41 32 51 45 44 33 37 35 33 19 62 51 65 78132 77 90 94 79 60 60 21 16 8 21 57 61 45 67 47 64 21 53 58 59 86 50 62 60 52 27 74 73 76 61 52 67 45 30 27 25 17 12 11 2 12 9 29 12 23 17 9 18 2 35 17 31 58 41 67 50 52 22 60 40 13 42 28 31 46 60 34 37 23 31 55 32 59 53 27 37 18 36 23 27 27 13 8 34 35 24 23 27 20 13 28 33 17 42 31 37 32 35 38 35 35 52 42 54 33 35 36 45 19 20 20 18 32 33 26 46 30 53 24 55 25 46 57 39 35 69 55 37 42 41 22 34 59 51 49 53 67 46 19 26 47 45 45 60 46 25 39 47 38 24 47 21 30 46 34 57 30 18 21 18 39 28 34 21 26 26 15 32 16 29 25 13 33 28 29 17 25 14 31 14 39 37 33 3 23 5 25 13 19 25 14 26 31 13 7 8 36 15 22 21 3 20 19 24 24 23 13 17 35 18 26 24 13 31 30 37 17 23 17 10 16 12 7 21 13 12 9 9 11) CHA060,012,009,017,001 685=N -3964=I 11) 5 samples (CHA060,012,009,017,001) -5(13F6.0)~ 29500 20500 15000 24000 33000 36500 10000 11000 12500 13500 10500 5500 7000 7000 10000 4500 3000 6500 9500 16000 13000 16000 5500 7000 9000 11000 13500 22000 15000 15500 13500 12500 4500 6000 7000 9000 21000 23000 42000 14000 17000 5000 5000 14000 22000 21000 17000 15000 12000 15000 17000 16000 10500 10000 15000 6000 22000 8500 17500 15000 34000 27000 12500 9500 14000 14000 13500 9500 15500 17000 9000 5000 8000 8000 8000 9000 7500 4500 7500 12500 15000 26500 19000 20500 32000 39500 23500 35000 29000 27000 19000 21000 20500 22500 24500 26500 23500 41500 32500 43000 56000 33000 44000 77000 45500 59000 29000 55500 35500 24000 41500 51500 48000 44500 42500 48500 33000 26500 22000 30500 30500 32000 50500 40000 29000 11000 19000 21000 13500 25500 25500 30000 5000 5500 18500 6500 31000 14000 35000 32500 15000 42000 50500 57000 22500 50000 57000 53000 64099 21470 9631 18304 35842 46483 57075 55743 62066 81774 72528 56319 37556 34971 50015 39598 21283 53422 56443 68633 77002 39117 41629 35335 29859 38102 46170 39393 53294 51532 57480 43041 48908 45052 22796 30368 71920 47418 38804 16721 18342 30597 39246 54877 44497 63724 47343 56569 41014 35417 57015 38640 55746 40256 38815 28450 28771 35747 40459 40367 43102 37881 33733 53481 52421 41144 57534 49544 62108 48135 32065 49386 40716 19883 31000 43000 54000 65000 30000 19000 53000 34000 31000 51000 38000 30000 39000 54000 31000 41000 24000 5000 26000 30000 37000 28000 27000 36000 52000 51000 83000 94000 57000 27000 28000 40000 34000 53000 47000 35000 30000 51000 60000 53000 45000 26000 22000 15000 47000 40000 41000 36000 29000 41000 32000 30000 46000 28000 21000 44000 47000 61000 26000 39000 31000 23000 27000 34000 17000 17000 14000 22000 26000 27000 42000 39000 37143 36479 34282 15973 46985 41586 45817 35541 34462 33297 57851 38141 39830 58005 52402 64245 61268 95274 77879 79103 44527 73461 67818 51382 66915 48836 58044 48542 60188 50493 34297 21814 30343 27318 19330 31028 37674 22448 25890 20938 27414 34284 36175 22814 22155 18932 34119 28429 46027 39944 28606 37674 58716 57737 33924 59131 47706 67784 57924 47264 56184 23589 35398 50320 59990 41211 56298 48331 56917 46614 60352 73078100871 72100100826 46340 71674 67785 70748 65034 57059 83787 82437 97654102262 97603 96917110019 72257 67592 83499 86173107194 53370 83050 71618 72105 62601 70925 75670 71983 92814 83718 69543 58714 54920 59474 43291 66602 48121 79532 69034 25023 50577 63493 77587 77307 56182 45723 67844 49108 75721 46890 84507 77881 70337 46438 52629 60915 50684 57532 58031 43993 32527 61223 52640 49079 42544 53483 61960 79030 66823 73806 32689 35046 18242 62750 55673 61686 52388 77760 33551 53130 63936 65666 51292 68383 50993 61192 60891 43838 56876 51626 58651 36797 26491 52839 38990 52762 33637 22651 49848 53290 66765 72486 53265 79909 30593 34434 40624 45162 24607 27409 45092 66972 71704 67281 33133 53007 43198 57953 62357 38773 42726 57282 60859 38621 38300 31630 48192 51651 34748 43513 36436 50128 54668 29234 31987 36751 31569 37721 13337 42200 40125 59482 44299 19273 30587 26770 18675 28352 53830 37686 33647 20975 22003 24719 35767 26587 26669 18037 25899 19415 22622 31868 31603 11966 28692 25282 11026 24117 27808 12843 15031 12381 21029 14078 17673 24989 21396 13818 36290 32305 30660 18314 40216 43074 55488 30400 52655 48880 80052 64740 40598 78201 38192 61936 43419 22177 17147 17388 5300 24236 32535 13552 16430 13265 21525 11911 36666 10407 31224 29079 21922 39323 27000 26000 45000 41000 55000 41000 57893 51388 45397 21782 37218 35585 31277 19650 31069 5221 17963 30678 39867 11885 34455 16000 12500 12500 31000 47500 19000 33500 24500 13000 42000 29000 17000 44000 37000 34500 31500 55500 28500 32500 32000 25500 17000 26000 29000 10500 27000 34000 32000 14000 11000 24000 27000 8000 14000 10000 16000 24000 18000 26000 20500 26000 35500 48500 42500 38000 43500 29500 32500 44000 47000 56000 55000 74500 66000 67000 80000 31000 52000 64000 81000 34000 39000 17000 43000 29000 61000 60000 47000 65000 79000114000 22000 68000 59000113000 54000 103000106000110000 58000 82000107000133000180000178000 tem-rcs.rwm Temperature reconstructed: 1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology 2) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology (5-years moving average) 3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology (5-years moving average) 1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology 2072=N -77=I TJJ -4(13F6.0)~ 150043131332106186 94108 55646 60349 66041119600 86633105443 73367 90395 86782 117175117224102770101186 98365116284103958 74753 94355 75545106681103513 82673 95246111730 74902 91385117818 77971 77228104255107077 48370 92672109750 93019 95197 84505 85990103166104602 81089 59210111680 63814 83614128906111334 82673 70942 52181110096 87623 92177 87623 73565 82475 94058 92969 76634 66437 86039 72971 84208 77228 99058 81683 88564 90890 68665103562 92771104008 87970 67279 74753 93910 99701117719 67031 44410 91930 77575 83911 78119 85594 95345 91138 83564 55795 92128105196 82426 97919 92524 45944109750 79654 73268 93712 71041 93316 82921104057 66338 61735117719 72377 62576112423 62972 76931 72724 78367 80693 95741 86782 81188 79505 71437 64358107324 83218 77872 81485 84950 93118 98662 81634 82624 87277 70348 86089 87227 84257110047 75100 86485 74951 91583 64804 96830 63913 94108 94108 75595 92672101335 82030 87227106928 86287 68566 80792113017117521 89851 95147 79010 75446101137 90742104849109205 64556 79505 90742 95296 76486 90544120244104503 93068 69308 85940 69259 92029110789103909 80050 48469105592 90148 55894119551103958 66190 85346 81386109057100097 81931 100048 85198102919105097107423 75991 79010111631 92029 89851132965111581115442 110245 75842 49112 89851 93167108611 55993 62032 73714104057 90395 84752 97721 103414 91435 80000108364 86138 94058 81733 93761 82574104701 86831126778109700 85594107869 51736122422107324 75149 53320 86039101038 73664102671102028 96236 45004101236 74555 77278103463 78515113858 82129 81485106730 43816 63022 72823 95939103166102968 68714 92326 73417 86485 91979 87524 68962 97226 95246 96286 74060 86386 75743 66437 97177 68368 77674 91930100988112076 70744 75298 80495 54310 78713101285 70397101582 78416 80198 62873101978 85247 77179 74456116977 107522 73615 82723 88960 80000110987 64309 90247 86930 99652 79852 61487 90395 124303113561 75347 92524 64556 96781 74357103166 92771 80792107374 95890109997 83911135143125590112472112522108760 49756 70546112522102770101434 99157 69259 95395 77674 95840101830111136 69209 95147111581 98959155240 36490120095127718 94702 90544107819 75347110591 57131108463103859162071104552105245 84901 74506 100246 72130 69506 80396136975 78713 88762103265105245113809 68962 48766120739 77525 57923 89702110740112126 81832100394100147 99652 80891 86435103661100345 113611 94256 83069101434 85000 86089 91534 59606 73318115393 64408111829105196 97127109057110294 77179 47776 79010115294 76783104354 97573 98860 84950 44707 88366108413 65150107720103067 89009 95197 86534 47083 71635101533100394 66982 70249105740 95692 94900 97523 73912 82871 58814 92969116977107423108562116927 113561 77327 71041 96187 54805128857 72872 86584 86237 79109 95098 96830109502 63368115789 44360101978 90692102374109552109552 98612 79406 77179 79060 78961 117373105443 64556 87623135589105592 91435 97028 60200123164 62824110789111532 70051 99157 98315 93662 60745108562 75595103265 79307 72476103810124204128461 102028102473 94504 77822 52379 97375 95147114155101533 51488109997 76139131728 63913 95890 72625116977 93316 93860 63418133658 85396117422114205 94405 83218 81040 92375 93959 99602 85940101384 74060112621 85099 94256 89059113611 94949 77971 89405 99652135292 51488 77426 94900102424 86386 67328 82525 84158 96434 96187 93316 77723 76931 89554 78218 93415 83812 88811118759 97127109552104305 97573 94652 82277 77575 97919 96385 62675 90940112175 90643 79753 86188 66734 72872 87574 70249 81139 82228 98414 81337100691 66833 77723 92672 85742 97721 63071 99602 81436 82376 82624103315 78020105641 81782 88960102374 76040107374 105889 94652 68764104156102869 73565104948 45845 96880 79555113215118066 56092 121432101384 34955 55795 76436105146 79753 67675 98464 60299 78119 73664 85297 101335 93118 87425 74753 84851 59111 92474114106 82228 90643 96286 88861119254 104453 87029 82327 98068117719 91682 74110 92078 70249128263127916 64853100493 70843 83812101830131480 70100108859116878104354 97969 60596124550100741103909 119600 81782113561 72229116185 99602119600 76139111185120491 60002 78812 80990 44756109601106087104503 85544 90346113611 98959 83861110096107869 72130104255 81040 68714 96385108017106483 93613 87772 68764117373 56389118759 78763 89356 84950115096 49013 75298 88168 93811 79555105839 89999 86683 92672 58963 84703 104701 89702101335 76486 88861 70843103067 83218 95543 88564 76436 95098 91435 78416100939100741 56488115541 65150102919104849119798108166 70397 62032 80099 100196 73219 99107104354 80990 61240121531 91336 79703 92672102127103364 77476 76040 49360 92128122867 92474 46390 61685 98563109849 84257 95147 88960 54854 54656114898106334 77179 97177 93316 92573 65794 92722101879 97127 94256 61438 115987 82673118412113066 37430111581 77179 81683 62923110690 82129 81683111383 54409 96484102622 95098 83267 63022 96533 72773 68615 86683 95147 84703 86188 91781 90940 84059 76931 96335 88564 96137114848 72179 84604102919 79208119056 85891 57181 83960108067100196 71882122620112175 81238 68318 69754108265 59755 112373 64408 88168 84554131530 90197 71486 80347115591102523108859 88069 79406 104255 82079 96484 96583 69704 70199 71783 72229103909 78317 88118 89900 56983 105592106631108908 79604118709111383116878 88217102226127669 48271 96286102869 87326 86386111581 77080104057 77476 68219 93910 69160 97127 69110 69160 93860 71882 93613107770 84406121234 96137 75941 69061 69506 81089 96583 92227101879 121036 97919 70744 97919 89009 78713 52528 80198 79951 90247100345 74308 82376 86881 68516 84109101978 88663 91534 68714106483121036 99800 79802106978 80050 68219101632 91435 91138100939 71486 71338100048 47182 72080 96632 92722 79406 87722 81089 92722108463 74605 91336101533109700115640 87128 85346 48023 78367 79852105146 95246 71932 68714108859117323101087127174 81634 99355 53171 56983 110542113710104008 81782 81386 99107 76387 91286 70942130391121630 85000 83168 104849119105 70397 63269 89900 43667 79258 78614 90643 73763 96979 97028 91286 67625 90494100592107869 80297 71239 99256 65398114452 88811 98068 95642102077 99800 77575 83614124451109502101038 68912 95395 67477 58765 67328 77773109948 77377107176 74258 59161103265 70645 89702 79703 59309 93217 67427 89455 98464 71536 81980 88366 68269103364 99503124550111383 50251 81683106879 81584 72922 101483100493143657125045 40747135787 84653 98266 75298 67031 59408 83366 78367 99998111185115195120343114749 91930120788146875113957 82228115244 22729119353 132124110245117422 82822103513 80446105344 88811 53072 81436 75446 75991101632 90989 68120 94553109651 84752130144 90692 55547 89801100889 83020115145149399 91187 81733121729109255 54508108364 57329 88960 98117 89603 83218 63962122917 128263 84653105988101978111532103661 89504 52726 69655101384 72724104008105146 71585 71090 81089 86188 82673111977111581108017 77674121283 63022 80495 98959 65843 50993 93712 95147 81040 84208 85297117422109403113759118214104008118511 86584 47281 66190 88762 67180 99454117175102968 82178 55201111779 91484 90247 86435101335 91930118165110938106136 80396 85247 67972 95246 85000115492 71536 131183 98909112918 36935 80941101335112274108809 78911106433 93860 78169 98711 108760 84158 79555 88514 90494 75892 97622108166110789 97771 93860108809 81436 118165 95098 74803 45944 97672 79604 62477 85693 93365 84851 65695120541115838 96830122026 79802109849 68021 84505115640104552 39658 81634133757 99899 96533 89207 73912 87079107275103364154349 33322 73763 94751 85643131233112918101731 100097116482107918 53666123461 62081 83564 59854 64160102077120145 96484104255 61883118759 60794107522 91088109601146132 90940 82129 73615110641 73070103117 97672108314 54112 70546 99305 76882 84554 91534 96682 77674 67081 90791 55201 107275 91138 90197 92227 94801 82970 92771 81931 96088 62873 80000133312 66338 52825111284 89356 65992 84703 88514 72575 78218 99899 73516 81733 96236107770 93415 59260105542 89999100840 88811 93019109997115046100889 60349 91336 60250 93365 55052 80990 77377110294 93365 94850 75545 84554 97820 80495106087 81733 69754 88366 82426 80149 95840 82475 99454 90692 85099 64507 68615 95840 91534 117620 64952 66982 96979 85148 98018101335 73120 82723 57824 97622 90544 70447 109453 75001 78515 94603 80050 84604 89950 83119 60101 72179 80000 74951 93415 82871 70694 97177 82574 88663 64259 75397 92078 76783 81931 80792 84059 74110 106730 62477 86237 97424 68219 82723 99256 79109 63665 84406 99404100889 99701 87871114601 71882 63467 78565 89257 85297 96484100939 78911114601119105124897 92029110641102176 71140 99602 98563 94504 50746 55745 51884 76486 75248107869 85247 85396122075108166110740 39262 67378 71635106829102275 60398 83614 95494 96236101533128312 94801 93910 75793 86732 78119108710122917 87178 95642105196 97820 81634 68417 90593 69704 97870 67675104156 94058 90494101285 91633 89999 99355 94157 52082 79753 91187116779 88069 93019 80198131678139153132866 80149 72971 26095 73961 95692 73219119006101137 92870 96533110789 83564105592 89455 87227100592 60002 80396118462 96236 94702 93811123263 75743 78416105889 79703 102721 79852106433 90098 79357 80594104107 99800 91633 96236 57874 92128 94949 104305 87871 90643 95791 65843 70150107374 73120104552116333 74951 98068121778 60695103810 73516 81040 59408 65893112571 92870 99998101483 61982 72031 95345 85841 97820 85990 85396 91633 58468106235 83861 83069 86188 96187 64309105641 83960101483 90544 94058103463 53864119650 86039 74506 62675 79654 70051 99355 102572 74951101632112324 86435 59161 92128114056 88267101978 87277 60943 94652 102721 93464 90098 89752 93167 81188 58369 86287130391 96434 89405 86683 78664 66190 88811 77575103117 70496 79604 70892 92425 85049 91187104305 81980 67477 75001 69952 90346 82525104305103859 89207 59111 75496100543 92722 59210 94702 92227112324 91435104255104552 73912 46439 80842 92375 71239 89603 97523 68665 106483 95048107176 88118103018 86881 81782 64606 73664114799 83465 81584102176 91732 83564100196106285 99602 76634 95098 63319 93118 92821 87871105790 90643 84901 89455 58270112274 64408 74011115640 83119 87623 69556111383 65546106582 91435 82723 48815108760 67922 89950 81881108958 80594 91633 83168117175100345 63616 78515 86633 68120 84554102424 86732 95989 85099 92524101978 78713 80594 105839 73763 89455 98216 82871 53221 73862 82525 92672 65249 91682101087 85247 101929 88762 70051 85544108958 70991 88267 82723 87475 98761 98117109750 59012 102077118412 98266 50300 79951 62576 99503 93712 75100 76090 96286 83663 83020 108265 69605103661 94801 84752 67427 94454107176 65497 99157 88613 78169 80248 85198 98810117620 98860101285 72278 86980 84257 96583 67328 75793 85495 87871 72328 78317 87425 76436 75446 93415 81287 69457100246 89653 83416101186 88019 95147 87128 94553 81188104552 53419 75446 63715 65101 92969 86732 76387 87871 102176117521100691 96731 71041 93563 85198 76090 95939103463 71239107869 94108 94553 51785 93761 87970 93118 89356 74258 88861 96731 90593124699 54607117472 105889 86683 79852 90989 98464 69605 81733104453 86435105097 97771 73021 56636 112472108859 93365 99949110096112868 99454 83416 71833101137 76882 68764 84554 88762120491 85891 70793 53023103166 94504106285 87178115789109502113215 76436 113314 67625 82376 81188 53369 97276117620 91088122372 93217 58765 88168 86089 106532 89752111185 97078 79654102473 76139108512 88514 75892 90791114799124154 73862 89801 70051 69209 97177 60893101929 99206102622100840 87128110542 50746 106285 85396 83069 79753 58567 74654 87326 80594 88118 76684 90395 66190 79802 94108 98612 92474 81733 60695 86089 92474107918104701 55102109205 68615 59210 100444101929 89554 85891 73912 78070103463 90395100790 82723 79505 83218 98711 80099 86633 63665 91732 71932124352 96385 94355 86386 99998 93217100345 81485 131134110146 89059 87970 92177104255 67081 64012123511 46786 86089 87079 94999 72179 72229107522 84158120739119204102325112076 87673 89306105047 61586 66041 75248109799104305 74704 83317112175 94850 72773 95741 88960127520120838 70199 54706 65645103166 99652 87574 88465 66932 86089 82822137222 73912 86881 78614 62428 88465104354114502101285 95543114007105592 90395 71932102226 96286119452 80644113759 55102116878104255103909 85049118016102919 93662 88960106334 97226 114155127421116779148261115442121679 77228134054 95098 58171114700 59656108463 85693101632134797 84604107126 95345 88019 82228 94603 89801 91138 97474 79852 110096 77971 90346115987 75545 98018 93910 83020 89405 69011 71090 97177104800 82228 96731125441 61240 88564 97276 92870129401 69407106334 78317108562 54211 107077 91979 94999 65893107918 2) Early summer temperature reconstructed (5-years moving average) 2068=N -75=I TJJ5 -4(13F6.0)~ 107463 89524 76466 79149 77654 87613 90217 95088 88524 94632 96988102869105027 107344107166104512 98909 97543 92979 91058 90969 92553 92731 99968 93613 91187 98216 94761 87861 93731 96870 82980 85920 92425 90177 87801 95028 93692 92375 94692 91870 86811 91949 84079 79881 89445 99869 94068 95494 89207 85445 80703 82604 85940 90217 84693 85980 86138 83940 82515 83227 79010 77258 77377 83901 83029 86148 87484 85772 86673 88890 91979 91395 91118 85356 85584 84722 90672 90623 84554 84158 79733 72971 75189 83425 84109 86821 86752 82287 83594 85564 83821 86692 94038 84802 85712 85158 80228 80465 85485 82198 82851 89009 83534 81673 86554 84445 76149 85366 85613 77456 77525 80683 74337 80891 82861 84554 84782 82930 76654 80762 81168 80842 82851 86970 84128 87217 87970 88197 88663 84109 81594 82713 83039 87593 88544 88623 86168 87633 78584 82930 78416 82247 82752 84910 84079 91563 89148 87772 94038 92761 86207 85960 91118 93236 93949 99265 98909 91395 88118 88296 90237 96276 94098 89771 89771 87861 81317 86514 94662 97414 96969 95533 94612 84415 81921 85465 92385 91207 87049 89761 85633 76030 83930 95028 87148 86188 91286 89187 88415 91563 94504 95266 94038 95038 100137 95325 94088 95830 93217 89702101097107611108373112017109215 92444 88098 83643 83317 79347 81931 78703 80881 77238 82990 90128 96068 93543 91464 96187 93870 91999 90058 92811 87653 91365 89920 98929102117102721103354 96335 95464 94989 92900 81990 88851 84574 77842 83346 93088 95127 83920 89435 83812 78862 80307 87009 89534 91048 91890 92543 85603 75436 73575 76466 75753 87583 88722 92623 88118 84782 82584 86346 81673 86435 88187 89049 86356 89841 85544 79782 79960 78822 77080 80317 87227 90207 90682 90207 87920 78584 71912 78020 77040 81257 86079 86376 78693 85009 81742 81495 80347 91167 92276 89950 91058 93959 86564 87257 85396 86900 86494 90425 84198 83633 83663 91138 93919 93019 99226 94058 88554 80713 86277 86326 89573 91692 95998 97365 95593106463110106113422 113927118897101820 90811 90821 88870 87405 97285 97028 93603 88583 87465 87999 96375 91138 94632 97780 97206106027 99483104473107700106849 93910108175 99226 95800 88286 91870 91078108423107215116838112126106255 93890 87405 80257 79357 91850 87544 90870 97622102592 97959 96008 88009 91504 85960 74783 78931 91326 89603 90464 98959101047 98830 92583 93504 94157 94197 96988 99661 98988 98543 95474 89969 89425 84732 79109 85188 80851 84910 94028 98790 97523106700 99770 88286 84663 85910 79208 84643 94603 98572 92504 86089 82891 85059 78317 82871 94543 94672 92029 96305 84178 77891 80396 81436 77525 82158 88979 87811 86712 92821 93553 88979 81604 81218 85108 91811 96949108571112690104760 97483 95008 82584 85643 84752 87861 85871 90732 83980 88771 93355 88781 96117 85970 86999 83237 91039 89791102829102156 99899 94860 88762 82643 86395 91603 89078 90791 102117 99760 96959103453 97969 95484 86930 90801 93702 95672 90870 97969 94543 84386 92088 87376 88366 85495 87841 86890 96612101651106195112195110334101057 85841 84910 83445 87376 92118 91939 94464 90662 94177 86653 95533 88059 96226 88544 94533 88039100246 93929 98751102820109017 98929 98058 93048 88999 90039 90583 94652 90989 94721 91821 93484 91019 98929 95395 93969 92999 95117 99454 90761 90652 91751 92306 82525 85693 86712 84564 83366 85326 90524 89563 88118 86742 83148 83168 84386 86762 92603 96385 99612103711105463100642 97672 91276 89999 89761 83366 85099 92019 90563 87237 91939 87098 79238 78624 76723 75713 78812 83920 82673 88762 85900 85000 83851 84732 84138 83386 87762 85514 84841 81822 89870 85554 90395 90276 91543 91355 90959 91306 96127 97266 90544 96167 95266 88801 90860 86277 84821 80158 88088 90712 92761 97672102037 86386 73931 78000 74743 70417 76961 85495 82267 76862 75644 79168 79743 86306 88168 88385 88296 79852 79723 85059 86554 87712 95147 94424 95454 99899 99176 96385 98226 97919 95365 92781 94731 89167 91276 98523 96672 98355 98473 89583 84366 97691 91613 99216105829106334 99632 97731100869 97642 97553101879106116103918 98216 100671 96672104235 96751104542105403 97483 89326 90296 77010 74832 84049 89187 90098 99216100018 98592 94464 99374102879 94583 95642 95078 86801 84505 91682 92128 94642 98454 92929 94801 84782 89811 88009 92128 85643 97384 83435 82742 82505 84277 77169 88534 91474 91177 90949 86831 82604 85544 86148 87880 91385 92217 85445 88118 84495 88306 88247 89365 87772 89415 85990 88465 93325 85603 90425 87772 88168 88989101651100176101226 93048 88098 84178 77188 82930 91395 91573 83782 93444 91890 86960 89296 97474 93840 91068 90336 81673 79673 83574 86574 80644 83109 84396 81792 80149 89900 95355 86613 75575 81703 83940 81584 90049 97780 93316 85207 88316 89257 90019 90355 89484 94137 90296 94553 98315 93514 92632 91534 84188 74159 88811 82921 83821 89761 88059 85217 89316 91999 86376 88098 88108 82138 76842 77525 83950 81584 84267 88900 89752 87534 85980 88009 87366 88405 94563 93613 91266 94137 90751 91593 94335 88851 85059 90831 87059 84257 97345102988 97622 91246 90821 87950 77466 83693 82911 86593 81851 96206 91771 93187 91623 97830 92029 95761 99077 98889 96622 92533 90058 91761 89821 83010 80950 76099 77565 79287 82871 86494 83445 83782 89445 93603 91543 103889105047107096102958107482109274 96652 92533 95464 92484 84227 96889 93048 93286 91316 87682 84148 82564 81178 79505 79693 79683 80228 79525 87257 90306 95781100632 97097 89356 86376 78347 78436 81693 88257 98563101929 96761 97899 95325 86861 77782 79673 76080 76327 80653 85009 85445 86831 82485 79238 84772 86029 86960 86999 91474 95286 97513 95167102820 97533 86970 87336 89662 86494 90672 91326 85267 86989 78198 72427 77456 81733 77604 85712 87514 86732 89880 88920 89643 93731 97127 98563101067 99869 89167 82901 75743 79347 81327 86108 84178 89979 92415 93583104631107215105314 92484 83663 80337 86752 87682 93405 98285 95998 88534 85990 83821 93622 98127 99850 98226105007102750 92504 88158 89504 77268 69298 70942 76416 73189 83851 87405 89940 85336 88682 89405 91573 89375 90098 91850 84811 86128 87831 93197 92474 99810 96880 94632 91741 97503 98988 99236 97503 99859 88465 78317 71575 73347 76258 78238 87920 89306 85584 84247 82901 79406 80495 80525 78515 77872 77822 81574 84019 81772 85960 81723 82703 88296 96810101414 97810 93474 94949 86356 78664 88910 92672100028108720 102285109146105978 96899 86950 92207 76931 76674 72694 77634 86465 97622105017 112294110680112601118937117660111155115818 96206 90702 94335 99939100374112393 109225 98889 97909 92187 86237 81822 80822 74951 77515 85099 82435 86257 92989 89613 97444101958 94157 90187 93415 83990 88880107651107928104097111838110660 91682 95117 90237 83683 81455 88474 83445 84772 91563 97592 96602101156108760 106483101562102532 91880 85415 83386 77198 80099 90583 90969 84910 86584 83020 78525 86603 94702100087 98384106106 96315 90098 88286 85920 71862 78000 80931 77347 81020 87880 92623 95474102018108819112561112779108215 94919 84514 81465 71199 73773 87752 95107 93791 91395 93860 88722 86178 87029 96256 92286 97622 101760105700101513100176 90138 86999 82772 89791 87049 99691100424106007 90296 92177 86207 88880 88059 96454101552100057 93236 91217 97186 92731 89870 91939 90296 83722 86415 92137 96592 98048101641103879 98533100008 99473 95662 83089 86336 78624 72100 74278 83762 81198 78416 90029 96058 96751104186107007104869 95305 92840 91563 96513 82475 85198 95048 91900 90296100206 98662 89326 90801 92167105196 97078 94414 91910 88366 83742 99661105255106324112492107829 95979 100325 92722 86138 76525 78624 74347 85960 88544 97424 96969100305 88435 90643 88009 97553103027109057103978100483100691 86079 88514 91623 98563 87257 86752 85990 81832 77080 84564 89791 85465 83505 84752 77485 79604 82297 86920 87207 95127 90266 90593 88940 89712 83326 82732 90841 87722 79069 88752 90623 77159 80832 87970 80228 78000 84782 82544 81188 85920 91831 90534 87682 92444 91197 89811 88890 95642 96533101542101552 95860 95523 85574 81238 72070 76198 73407 83416 83416 91375 90286 91722 89227 86653 88900 90138 87178 85287 85673 80485 83307 85851 88069 89722 90712 84445 81673 80950 81119 87623 87712 87385 87613 86336 82416 89692 90920 88069 82604 82525 80366 79832 85178 88613 84792 85603 87524 82554 85544 86465 79564 77990 77070 74070 76129 80683 80386 83821 85346 84396 80673 81614 80594 79436 78089 81396 83128 79535 85524 81634 82723 85396 84217 79416 86772 85346 78594 81832 85168 85495 89613 94454100493 94989 87504 83277 83554 77693 82614 90108 90177 95246102008107690105908112254109769100176 95117 96424 93197 82911 79832 70288 65873 62022 73446 79347 86049 95167101750 102325 93127 89524 79436 79168 77476 81703 84950 89722 87603 87455101038103275 102958 98869 95909 85871 88653 94454 96731 98513103928101750 93494 89742 88732 81634 81643 78852 85999 86692 90850 91534 96325 93494 94553 95286 85445 83069 83307 86791 85574 93761 93850101948106423115383112809111363 90247 77208 69773 68387 77594 92603 96385 96553104067 96979 97870 97186 95325 93286 88573 83534 89336 91138 89959 96721105295 96751 93187 95424 92603 88494 89316 94919 91761 91692 87267 92118 90791 91098 94474 89930 87534 86564 89098 87425 93979 94711 88890 82059 85960 82455 84208 94306 95266 93405103136 94365 91860 91573 88168 75694 76733 78485 82356 86148 94563 93781 85673 86168 83336 82604 87405 90078 89336 83861 85544 85118 84653 83564 91108 82723 87079 87257 90316 89187 95137 94702 88682 92316 91415 87504 79347 84505 74585 77248 82861 85316 89712 98167 95583 86900 90336 92821 88009 91118 96741 90504 86623 89514 87811 88375 94137 93840 89534 82515 81752 89880 90534 92177 97840 96315 83475 81950 79584 82871 81238 83920 80337 83307 79693 83831 88771 90989 85999 83990 79743 76951 77060 84425 90197 94048 87801 86395 85643 83416 77416 84534 87880 90237 89979 98988 100958 97295 84118 82000 79624 72961 76099 86316 83881 86702 91464 94979 93098 99968 96048 93395 84881 81990 84346 83663 83623 91138 94751 88504 91850 96790 96276 93256 95563 88187 85554 84198 86445 88583 94048 92405 91732 85811 87108 81861 79683 84920 89890 84960 85990 93464 83445 88138 88900 91534 79020 87663 79931 79634 79465 91494 85861 90603 89247 96305 94583 91187 88564 89257 79446 76288 84049 85693 87564 90959 92553 92464 90860 87781 91930 88177 85673 89573 90029 79505 79525 78139 77030 73506 81198 86643 87187 89039 93741 89415 86306 91048 84861 84762 87296 87682 85643 91068 95365 90623 93543 97474 97503 85613 89801 81901 78119 77208 82168 81396 88138 84970 82831 89464 88168 89643 91870 92217 84049 89019 89722 83861 86742 90979 87722 82336 86277 86207 92009 96147 100354 97771 95404 88732 88276 81485 82188 81891 82614 77763 79960 82287 80475 77990 82208 82802 79208 83970 86811 84811 88791 92504 91484 90979 93207 89207 92514 84168 81832 75664 72446 70130 76792 76981 81812 89227 94137 96929100998 97632 95909 89445 84524 84366 90850 86386 90920 94523 94246 83911 88415 84435 84237 83198 87692 86712 88465 87960 95028 91098 96820 98652 97870 88900 96177 92375 85118 84128 89049 88138 89464 95098 93355 83792 88999 89752 88870 94256 104948105027103146101156 95533 93741 86544 80406 80634 84019 87890 89692 90098 83792 86673 81475 85554 88831101384102651106393100424105651 96018 90593 84188 79574 76367 86366 88108 96345104314 96612 90722 89722 86554 85861 96345 98127 96840 96028 93306 92771 91058 90306 87970 95701 98830 95899 98681 94533 85415 80020 77426 79852 85683 92365 93098 98345100067 90375 91108 88019 87207 81049 82614 76288 76674 76179 77852 81475 84623 80396 80238 81436 85821 86237 89346 85524 83920 82693 85782 90375 89257 93880 89108 79366 78515 87880 83950 87405 90346 85871 86178 86346 89326 91088 91375 87326 88989 84851 85633 82465 84168 78812 87663 89613 95751 94682100295 94068 94860 92286101236103265102433 99958 102097 96721 88108 83099 90207 81129 77495 81495 87692 77426 82515 86801 86217 91365100770106789107700108403102117 99285 91138 81931 79446 83544 83396 86019 89474 96860 93870 87564 91771 92900 95969101166100651 92444 87781 82911 78673 82148 88900 89158 85742 82376 92306 89395 93385 91890 87811 78060 84148 89672 94207100830105938106186101364 95494 96830 93286 96058 94108102473 93048 97167 94127 98780 93038105621102829100711 97721101978 97820100067106819112383120768 124411125916115878119333108700 97246 95850 92335 87217 85336 94028 98048103037 102770104701101978 91464 93464 89999 89158 91048 90573 93672 91306 91147 94850 93989 91573 94761 93296 87979 86673 81287 81940 86296 84861 90405101275 94088 90841 93850 93078 93870 95503 99058 95266 98404 83366 90900 88029 91365 82831 93573 3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology (5-years moving average) 2068=N -75=I TYY5 -3(13F6.0)~ -12564-12358-12537-12656-13098-12929-13147-13257-13384-13016-12835-12903-12930 -13576-13553-13649-13392-13177-12819-12688-12926-13075-13332-13153-13197-13410 -13017-13152-13072-13194-12905-12848-12725-12723-12681-12927-13628-13809-13580 -13499-13547-13069-13036-12979-12913-12830-12735-12648-12783-12679-12869-13358 -13367-13615-14005-13568-13824-14163-14297-14023-13902-13566-13862-13968-13582 -13782-13605-13476-13375-13224-13576-13357-13123-13099-13014-13030-13354-12940 -13430-13238-13308-13270-13675-13594-13725-13726-13363-13538-13683-13824-13714 -13667-13512-13704-13096-13097-13400-13343-13264-13211-13644-13630-13382-13402 -13211-13007-13084-13185-13179-13128-13308-13570-13688-14509-13992-13869-14206 -13872-13900-13415-13486-13465-13495-13484-13772-13586-13270-13622-14089-14416 -13938-14000-14046-14121-13928-13935-13861-13886-13708-13628-13599-13337-13584 -13540-13487-13910-13628-13637-13691-13598-13807-13756-13706-13380-13027-13069 -13124-13416-13260-13649-13760-13475-13061-13456-13343-13435-13419-13789-13868 -13259-12929-13089-13432-13436-13657-13806-13358-13567-13504-13095-13069-13156 -13475-13179-13461-13262-13199-13027-13255-13113-13764-13904-14151-13754-13034 -13415-13462-13486-13015-13330-13488-13139-13130-12885-12759-12938-12595-12574 -12878-13176-12923-12994-13381-13337-13364-13491-13691-13535-13755-13754-13622 -13730-13870-13928-13997-13994-13800-13806-13148-12882-13265-13062-13043-13063 -12997-12825-12703-12692-13028-13093-13032-13457-13561-13230-13464-13109-13156 -13165-13535-13322-13271-13553-13225-13093-13070-13208-13163-13285-13301-13604 -13527-13440-13611-13486-13674-13724-13762-13707-13747-13266-13691-13481-13392 -13791-13550-13618-13475-13473-13174-13404-13125-13344-13318-13734-13432-13343 -13238-13358-13508-13540-13649-13975-13986-14033-13732-13660-13645-13627-13389 -13931-13917-14016-13817-13816-13658-13615-13495-13508-13190-13057-12882-12900 -12774-12902-13117-13299-13446-13945-13713-13901-13311-13268-13309-13240-13368 -13251-13316-12818-12489-12514-12564-12865-13234-13551-13622-13445-13438-13273 -12893-12915-12989-12763-12838-12489-12515-12471-12298-12401-12689-12887-12669 -12937-12691-12788-12973-12360-12344-12604-12586-12531-13175-12910-12845-13020 -12757-13265-13129-12966-12744-13062-12841-12791-12770-12695-12940-13042-12944 -13165-13127-13508-13451-13463-13268-13625-13392-13212-13143-13734-13594-13740 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-13126-13064-13189-12987-13583-13555-13505-13039-13123-13178-13270-13804-13634 -13362-13002-13048-13134-13249-13460-13376-13107-13115-12807-12843-13085-13634 -13626-13721-13447-13629-13848-13011-13267-13400-13455-13349-14140-13548-13070 -13016-13323-13538-13442-13401-13017-13026-13052-12941-12876-12927-12697-12714 -12803-12891-12986-13276-13270-13280-13323-13524-13647-13448-12860-12670-11908 -12246-12327-12022-11984-12141-12061-12254-12041-12587-12902-13151-12930-13018 -13082-13070-13042-13436-13347-13571-13785-13804-13559-13389-13360-13416-13036 -13119-13153-13133-13099-13567-13372-13366-13786-13629-13808-13726-13372-13241 -13335-13219-13261-13066-13127-12816-12859-12887-12983-13197-13145-13160-13229 -13368 Draft manuscript VARIABILITY OF LARCH RADIAL GROWTH IN THE EAST OF TAYMIR AND PUTORAN FOR THE LAST 2000 YEARS M.M.Naurzbaev, E.A.Vaganov Taymir Biospheric Reserve, Khatanga Institute of Forest, Krasnoyarsk Abstract Regional tree-ring chronology with extension 2209 years (since 212 B.C. till 1996 A.D.) was built for the east of Taymir according to wood of living trees, well preserved residues of dead trees and semi-fossil wood from alluvial bank deposits by the cross-dating method. In addition the "floading" tree-ring width chronology for the period of Holocene Optimum (3300-2600 B.C.) was built with extention 685 years and supported by several rdiocarbon dates. High values of synchrony and correlation of individual tree-ring series show a prevailing effect of one external factor on radial tree growth change in the studied region of Siberian subarctic. It was established that the main factor of growth variability the early summer and annual temperature is which explains up to 70% of tree growth rate variability. Cyclic components stable for two millennia were revealed at analysis of the tree-ring chronology: double secular (about 180 years), secular (78-90) and intrasecular (44, 28, 11 and 6,7-6,9 years) variations. Models for reconstruction of the early summer and annual air temperature were obtained according to tree growth variability. Temperature dynamics in the eastern part of Taymir for the last two millenia agrees well with temperature variations in the northern hemisphere obtained according to other indirect sources. The warming of the middle of the 20-th century is not extraordinary. The more long in time, and close in amplitude the warming at the border of the first and the second millennia was. Key words: radial growth, tree-ring chronologies, temperature change, dendrochronology, climate, growth cyclicity, temperature reconstruction, response functions. Introduction The leading dendrochronological groups began their work in some key regions of circumpolar zone of the northern hemisphere on building the superlong (several millennia, and for the whole Holocene period if to use subfossil wood) tree-ring chronologies for the quantitative reconstruction of natural temperature variations [6,8,19,20,35,36]. The high latitudinal regions in the northern hemisphere are of greatest interest for assessing natural and anthropogenic variations of air temperature, forest-tundra ecosystem growth and productivity, regeneration regime as well as of polar timberline dynamics because the ecosystems of high latitudes have the highest sensibility to the expected global climate warming [4,15,18,19,22,43]. Owing to accessibility and great amount of well-preserved wood of dead trees as well as of subfossil wood from alluvial river deposits and wood buried in bogs several regions in high latitudes of Russia turned to be promising for building millennial chronologies: the Polar Urals [15,31], Yamal peninsula [32], the east of Taymir and Putoran [7,8,14] and the lower Indigirka river[34]. The following problems were solved in the given paper: 1) obtaining of the absolutely dated 2000 year tree-ring chronology suitable for quantitative reconstruction of climate changes; 2) revealing of the main climatic factor responsible for the year-to-year and long -term growth variability; 3) building of models of climate change reconstruction for the whole period of long tree-ring chronology. Material and methods Dendrochronological material was collected in Kheta-Khatanga plain as well as in Moyero-Kotuy plateau regions of the Middle-Siberian forest zone within the northern stripe of the northern taiga subzone [1] (Fig.1). The wood samples were taken with the help of a borer or chainsaw from the living trees, from the well preserved residues of a dead and subfossil wood. The whole sampled material is from trees from three types of conditions: 1) from the contemporary northern timberline of larch in the stow (urotchishche) Ary-Mas of the Taymir biospheric reservation (latitude of 72 28' N.); 2) from contemporary upper timberline with absolute marks 200-300 m above sea level in the Kotuy river valley (latitude of 70 30'-71 00' N.); 3) from alluvial deposits of flood-land and over-flood-land terraces of large tributaries of the Khatanga river (latitude of 70 30'- 73 00'N.). Measuring of the tree-ring width was made with the help of automatized devices with resolution up to 0.001 mm, and later the measured individual tree-ring chronologies were treated in the standard software package for dendrochronological and dendroclimatological analysis [26,33]. Owing to the high year-to-year variability, high synchrony of individual series between each other the results of the cross dating gave a chance to build the continuous chronology since the year 212 B.C. till 1996 A.D., it means the total length 2209 years. Besides, according to the well-cross-dated discs of subfossil wood for which the series of radiocarbon dates was made at the University of Bern (Switzerland) and at the Joint Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy SB RAS (Novosibirsk) the "floading" chronology of 685 years long was obtained which according to the dates agreed with climatic optimum of the Holocene (3300-2600 years B.C.). Standartization method is used to treat individual series for the best revealing of climatic signal. This method is intended to remove the changes caused by age or by factors of the non-climatic nature (for example, effect of phytocoenotic factors) from tree-ring width variability. For standartization two approaches were used: 1) an approximating curve of age variations is tried for every individual series [15,26]; 2) an age curve is used which is built according to the entire totality of analysed individual curves of growth [3,11,21,23]. As the special studies showed, the long climatic changes (or super-secular variations) remain more reliably at the second standartization method [21]. Therefore, it was chosen for standartization of individual series and obtaining of the long chronology of tree-ring indexes. Obtaining of regional tree-ring chronology (C1) and of the so-called "residual" series (C2), from which autocorrelation was removed [26,40], was as a result of individual series standartization. The main statistic characteristics were calculated for the obtained chronologies: inter-series coefficient of correlation (as an index of synchrony of individual series), sensitivity coefficient, standard deviation,1-st order autocorrelation etc.[30,41]. Analysis of the frequency-temporal structure of obtained chronologies at the entire period and at the 500-year intervals was carried out by Fourie method of direct transforming (Blackman-Tyuki method) and Fourie method of "fast or inverse transforming" (Kuli-Tyuki method) [10]. The methods of graphical assessment of smoothed curves [15,16], analysis of autocorrelational function [2,15], a narrow-striped filtering of series [12] were used at the revealing of long (super-secular) cycles in growth variability. Revealing of the main climatic factors of growth variability was based on response function assessing and interpreting [30,42]. The quantitative reconstruction of climatic factors according to variability of growth indexes was made on the base of calculated regression model at which building one part of climatic series was used for calibration, another part - for verification [6,7,41]. Adequacy of reconstruction model was assessed by standard statistic indexes: correlation coefficient, Fisher's criterion, autocorrelation of residues - criterion of Darbin-Watson [17]. Results In the result of the cross dating (its quality was checked by statistic estimates according to the COFECHA program [26,33]) of Larix gmelini living trees and trees dead long ago from the upper timberline as well as of subfossil wood from alluvial deposits the reginal tree-ring chronology since the year 212 B.C. till 1996 A.D. was built for the eastern part of Taymir and Putoran. The total number of wood samples being dated was 118, including 27 living and 91 dead trees. The average age of the used trees made 300 years, the maximum age was 798 years. The percentage of the missing rings is not very large - only 0,5% because the discs were analysed, mainly, but not wood cores [44]. The tree number in the regional chronology is not homogeneous in calendar scale and has a tendency to decrease when moving to the past: 3 and more models since the year 135 B.C., 5 and more models since the year 81 B.C. Dating of dead trees showed that in the upper timberline under continental climate the dead tree residues can remain on the day surface during more than 1900 years. Inter-series correlation coefficient for the whole time period is rather higher than the threshold value (0,62- 0,75, p < 0,01). It confirms a stable and strong external influence which synchronizes growth variability of individual trees. The main statistic C1 chronology for the whole period and in 500- year intervals are given in the Table 1. The high and close coefficient values of sensitivity and standard deviation for the different time intervals show that tree growth variability under these conditions is controlled by one and the same factor during two millennia. Autocorrelation of the first order which shows the growth effect of the previous year on the growth in the next year is of great importance as well. Autocorrelation is not significant after treating it by autoregression model in C2. The average tree-ring width for two thousand years is at the level 0,28 mm but it greatly varies in time, the average tree-ring width is more high (0,40 mm) for the Holocene optimum period (Fig.3). Radiocarbon datings agree well with absolute dendrochronological data. Analysis of spectral density allowed to show the frequency stripes important by their contribution to the total growth variability and to assess their amplitude (Table 2). The contribution of millennial cyclic component makes about 4%. The large contribution is brought by double secular cycle (in frequency stripe of 120-220 years) up to 20,6% and secular cycle (in frequency stripe of 60-120 years) - up to 13,3%. The cross-spectral analysis of the 500 year old fragments of chronology showed that during two millennia the double secular (180 years), secular (78-90 years) and several intrasecular (44,28,11 6,7- 6,9 years) cycles are steadily present. Hereat, re-distribution in the capacity of separate cyclic components is observed. Such a re-distribution was already noted in the papers on dendroclimatic data from boreal taiga forests and forest-tundra regions [2,12,15]. Positive anomalies of growth, the most strong in amplitude and long in time, fall on the 4-th century, the border of the 6-th and 7-th centuries, the border of the 1-st and 2-nd millennia, the middle of the 20-th century. However, the negative anomalies fall on the 1-st century, the border of the 13-th and 14-th centuries and the first half of the 19-th century. These anomalies can be explained by superposition of cycles of different length. So, growth increase in the middle of the 20-th century agreed with positive periods of the double secular, secular, and several intrasecular cycles (44, 11, and 6,7 years). Since at the polar timberline the summer temperature is the main factor of growth limiting [6, 15,35,43], then the dendroclimatic analysis of relation of growth variability was carried out, first of all, with air temperature data for summer period. However, some changes were brought to the traditional searching scheme of correlation with average monthly temperature data.In order to reveal the key interval of the season when temperature mainly affected on radial tree growth the value of correlation coefficient between C2 growth indexes and air temperature for every five days beginning from the 8-th of May was calculated. Everyday data of the Khatanga meteorological station since 1933 to 1989 were used. All the calculations are given in the Fig.4. As we see, the significant positive connection (p<0,01) between air temperature for every five days and growth indexes is observed for the period since June 17 to July 11 and it falls on the interval of stable temperature rise in the season. The temperature of the more late intervals of the season does not show large connection with growth variations. The temperature for the period June 17 -July 11 we called as an early summer temperature. Temperature sum for this time period shows the most correlation with C2 tree-ring indices (R=0,77). Thus, variability of C2 tree-ring indexes is determined by the early summer temperature variability in the east of Taymir and Putoran by 60%. The smoothed (the 5-year moving average) C1 tree-ring indexes and instrumental values of average annual air temperature show high agreement too (R=0,72). At the same time the smoothed annual temperature shows the significant relationship with the concordance coefficient calculated for the same period of 5 years based on all wood samples available. This relationship is positive (R=0.44,p<0.01) and shows that in cool periods the synchrony in tree-ring variations among all trees measured becames lower, in warm periods it becomes higher, but has a non-significant relation to tree-ring width variations. Therefore, at seaching of quantitative models of reconstruction of leading climatic variables using tree-ring chronologies it was conventionally taken to use C2 for the early summer temperature reconstruction, and C1 - for the annual temperature reconstruction. The results of calibration and verification of obtained models of the early summer and average annual temperature reconstruction according to 2000-year chronologies data are given in the Table 3 and in the Fig.5. As we can see, the early summer temperature variability is well explained by tree-ring indexes variability in C2 (R^2 =0,59 - 0,72), the average annual temperature variability is described by the model with two variables: by smoothed values of tree-ring indexes in C1 and by concordance coefficient values between individual series (R^2 =0,67) (Fig.5). Comparison of calculated values of the early summer and average annual temperatures with the real ones for the period of instrumental observations shows (Fig.5) that the calculated values of the early summer temperature agree well with the year-to-year variability of real values repeating the most large positive (1940-41, 1953, 1967,1979, 1984) and negative (1947, 1949, 1980, 1989) extremes. Hereat, in the curves of the early summer temperature variability the long fluctuations are not expressed. To the contrary, the periods of large temperature rise (1938-1956,1983-1989) and temperature fall (the end of (19)50s and (19)70s clearly agree in reconstructed and real values of average annual temperature. Based on the obtained models according to two chronologies the reconstruction of the early summer and average annual air temperature was made for the east of Taymir and Putoran for the period since the year 81 B.C. to the present time (it means, for the period provided by 5 and more samples). The curves of variability of the reconstructed early summer temperature (smoothed by the 5-year and 57-year moving average) are given in the Fig.6. The average value of the early summer temperature equals to 9,6 C for the instrumental observation period. The most large fall of the early summer temperature is marked in the 1-st century (T=8,4 C), and in the end of the 13-th century (8,4 C). The most warm periods with the raised average early summer temperature are the end of the 3-rd century (T=9,7 C), the border of two millennia (9,6 C), the middle of the 20-th century (9,9 C). The middle of the 20-th century is characterized by the most rise of the early summer temperature, but the 11-th and 12-th centuries are characterized by the long period with high early summer temperatures. Long variations of the average annual temperature range from minus 14 C to minus 12,5 C. It was of great interest for average annual temperature to compare the reconstruction data with other indirect data on dynamics of average annual air temperature of the northern hemisphere in order to make clear whether temperature variations in the east of Taymir and Putoran reflect global temperature changes in the northern hemisphere. As such the data on reconstruction of temperature variation in high latitudes according to ratio of oxygen isotopes in ice cores of Greenland were used [25,29]. In the Fig.7 both reconstructions are matched in the calendar scale since the late of the 12-th century. Their good agreement is well seen, especially in positive (the 14-th and 15-th centuries, the end of the 18-th and the middle of the 20-th centuries) and in negative (the late of the 13-th and of the 17-th centuries, and the first half of the 19-th) extremes. It means, the long fluctuations of average annual temperature in the east of Taymir and Putoran agree well with global air temperature variations of the northern hemisphere for the last millennium, and hence the tree-ring chrnology of this region can be used to analyse both regional peculiarities and global temperature variations in the northern hemisphere. Discussion and conclusions The results of analysis of the super-long tree-ring chronology of the Taymir and Putoran east show that the information on the main climate changes in the northern hemisphere for the last 2000 years is reliably fixed in it: fall of temperature in the first century, climate warming in the 3-rd and 4-th centuries, warming in the Medival Warm Period (?) or "the small climatic optimum" at the border of two millennia, the long fall of temperature in the 17-th and 19-th centuries ("the small glacial period") and the present climate warming in the middle of the 20-th century [27]. Since the obtained regional chronology has good correlations with other chronologies of subarctic zone within 500- 600 km [6,43], then we can believe that similar regularities of the early summer and average annual temperature variability are typical of large sector of Siberian subarctic. It was shown earlier that the long growth variations agree well for the entire Siberian subarctic [8,24]. The studied region (and this is shown by subfossil wood samples and by obtained "floating" chronology) has a high potential to build the tree-ring chronology for the whole Holocene period and to study in details temperature variations for this period of the Earth history. Two important consequenses from reconstruction analysis should be noted especially. First, the analysis of frequency structure of series and of their separate fragments illustrates a constancy of the main environmental factors limiting growth. It is confirmed also by comparing reconstructions with other indirect evidences. Second, the warming in the middle of the 20-th century, marked as extraordinary [22], has the analogs in the past. So, the warming at the border of millennia shows a close amplitude and was more long [27,38]. Historical evidences on climate of this Medival Warm period say about the more large climate warming than the present one [13]. The obtained data demonstrate that temperature variations in high latitudes for the instrumental period (1850- 1990) do not go far beyond limits of natural variations revealed during two millennia. Ratio of natural and anthropogenic components in the present and future climate changes is especially discussed. It is proved in some papers based on the long tree-ring chronologies of North America that the influence of anthropogenic component becomes large and can be separated and assessed quantitatively [39]. Hereat, the trees growing above the upper or polar timberline reflect stable temperature rise in the northern hemisphere [28,35,37]. However, a direct correlation between temperature and growth is marked only for trees from growth regime especially chosen [36,37]. The stable trend of summer and especially winter temperatures for the last decades is connected with the increase of anthropogenic component share, mainly, at the expense of atmospheric green-house gases [4]. At the same time, on large areas of high latitudes (mainly, in subarctic zone) tree growth, correlating well with temperature rise till (19)60s, begins to stunt after this period from the rise of temperature [24]. We can believe that the direct temperature effect is combined with other factors which influence growth rate of trees in polar latitudes. For instance, increase of winter precipitation can shift the dates of snow cover melting to the more late time even at summer temperature rise [9]. In polar latitudes the conditions of the first season half play the leading role in radial tree growth and tree-ring forming [5,6]. Therefore, tree growth response at the polar timberline will be more complex than we can expect only from summer temperature variations. Conclusions 1. The long 2209-year (since the year 212 B.C. till 1996 A.D) regional tree-ring chronology was obtained for the east of Taymir and Putoran, suitable for quantitative dendroclimatic analysis and climate change reconstruction. Numerous radiocarbon data of sub- fossil wood and several built "floating" chronologies show a high potential of dendrochronological material of the given region for the building of absolute tree-ring chronology for the main Holocene period (more than 6000 years). 2. The main factors were established which determined the year-to-year variability as well as long-term variability of larch growth in the study region. They are the early summer and average annual air temperature and they determine up to 70% of the total growth variability. 3. In long-term growth variability during two millennia the millennial, the double secular and secular cycles as well as some intrasecular cycles which are met the most often in tree growth variability in polar latitudes of the northern hemisphere are steadily seen. The most large warmings and falls of temperature can be explained by matching particular cycles. 4. Reconstruction of the early summer and average annual temperature variations in the east of Taymir and Putoran showed good agreement of temperature variations in the given region with temperature variations in the northern hemisphere obtained in other indirect sources. The warming in the middle of the 20-th century is not extraordinary. The warming at the border of the 1-st and 2-nd millennia was more long in time and similar in amplitude. The work was done under financial support of the Russian Foundation of Fundamental Research (grant 96-04-48258) and European Community Foundation (grant ADVANCE -10K). REFERENCES 1. 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Paul Haupt Publ.,Berne/Stuttgart/Vienna, 1996,-609 pp. 44.Vaganov E.A., Naurzbaev M.M.,Schweingruber F.H.,Briffa K.R.,Moell M. An 840-year tree-ring width chronology for taymir as an indicator of summer temperature changes."Dendrochronologia", 1996,14:193-205. Tabl.1.The main statistical characteristics of C1 chronology _________________________________________________________________________ Period Years Statistical parameters Mean index Sensit. St.dev. 1-st autocorr. Coef.var. ___________________________________________________________________________ 212 BC- 1996 AD 2209 1.016 0.421 0.443 0.41 43.6 212BC-287AD 500 1.014 0.411 0.482 0.53 47.5 0-499AD 500 0.963 0.426 0.421 0.38 43.7 500-999AD 500 0.982 0.457 0.441 0.38 44.9 1000-1499AD 500 1.015 0.427 0.433 0.37 43.6 1497-1996AD 500 1.039 0.339 0.441 0.44 42.4 ___________________________________________________________________________ Tabl.2. The relative power of different cyclic components in C1 chronology (in % to common variation) ___________________________________________________________________________ Period Spectral window <600 years 220-600 years 120-220 years 60-120 years ___________________________________________________________________________ 81 BC-1996 AD 4.0 6.1 11.3 6.7 0-499 AD 2.8 20.6 2.6 500-999 AD 3.7 6.9 11.0 1000-1499 AD 12.0 2.3 4.9 1497-1996 AD 5.9 8.8 13.3 ___________________________________________________________________________ Tabl.3. Statistical evaluations of model for reconstruction early summer temperature based on C2 chronology and annual temperature based on C1 chronology ____________________________________________________________________________ Calibration Verification Period R^2 F value D-W statistics Period R^2 F value D-W statistics ____________________________________________________________________________ early summer temperature 1933- 1989 0.59 79.6 1.914 (p<0.00001) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1960- 1933- 1989 0.72 72.7 1.907 1959 0.45 20.5 1.877 (p<0.00001) (p<0.001) _____________________________________________________________________________ annual temperature (average) 1933- 1993 0.67 46.0 2.51 (p<0.000001) _____________________________________________________________________________ FIGURES Fig.1.The map of territory where wood samples were collected: 1- sites of living old trees; 2- sites where wood remains of dead trees and subfossil wood were collected; 3-recent polar timberline. Fig.2.The variability of average tree-ring width (smoothed) in absolutely dated (upper) and "floating"(below) Taymir chronology. The according radiocarbon dates shown at right column. Fig.3.Correlation of C2 index chronology with pentad temperatures (asterisk shows the significant value of correlation coefficient). The many years average temperature curve also shown as wide line. Fig.4.Comparison between observed and calculated early summer (1) and annual (2) temperature for Taymir. Empty columns indicate the residuals. Fig.5.Reconstructed early summer temperature from C2 chronology: 1- 5-year smoothing, 2- 57-year smoothing. Fig.6.Comparison of long-term changes in annual temperature reconstructed from Taymir C1 chronology (2) with oxygen isotopic ratio in Greenland ice cores (2)(according to Burroughs,1992). 4804. 1998-10-17 10:14:46 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:14:46 +0400 (MSD) from: From to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk 11).rwm all radius cross-dated measurements = 5 trees 474=N 0=I CHA001A -2(26F3.0)~ 35 56 14 17 5 5 14 22 28 18 15 14 15 19 17 11 9 17 7 22 11 19 21 37 28 12 16 16 14 13 11 17 18 9 5 8 9 5 9 8 8 11 16 12 23 18 18 39 42 26 40 35 25 21 20 21 21 24 25 24 44 33 53 74 32 51 94 52 66 44 57 39 27 41 52 53 51 47 48 31 27 22 29 32 36 55 39 28 33 22 21 17 40 29 52 8 6 14 7 61 11 60 36 19 48 54 60 24 54 64 58 61 22 6 14 40 70 55 77 45 40 26 52 70 28 43 30 32 47 43 44 72 22 32 44 45 65 49 57 46 62 64 52103 41 7 32109 73 47 15 13 53 59 77 96 108 80 98 64 46 78 47 99105112 88 73 91 82 67112 75 76 90 86 60120 81109 76 31 73 69 31 69 63129117 30 19 68 75 87 68 59 30 46117 54 59 26 5 26 32 40 28 36 49 74 85108109 83 56 55 49 47 67 82 67 36 93 74 79 51 41 33 18 65 67 79 42 35 49 32 50 54 28 22 54 47120 51 64 48 56 51 56 49 40 22 48 34 42 47 42 54 60 55 31 71 69 73 58 57 41 84 71 65 88 82114108166115112 90151138101135103 95 81121 103 73 56 58 40 33 68 76 38 49 30 43 44 62 36 31 25 44 28 57 35 35 42 56 56 29 58 57 88 63 51 88 43 53 42 43 44 60 38 40 49 27 28 43 52 64 49 71 47 80 52 42 74 66 62 42 61 53 64 38 74 56 51 87 29 85 63 65 45 34 58 36 57 52 33 58 67 91 69 92 56102 76 21 54 53 58 66 39 43 50 55 87 54 68 85 30 41 47 54 52 46 33 31 32 56 26 30 32 50 39 64 43 51 22 53 18 40 26 18 12 19 7 22 32 27 47 42 47 55 50 42 45 48 57 35 36 46 32 33 23 21 39 28 46 45 36 51 18 19 25 35 36 16 28 21 42 53 39 68 47 65 61 33 46 58 47 22 26 20 45 35 31 39 12 20 28 7 9 11 16 26 7 20 17 24 14 12 321=N 0=I CHA001B -2(26F3.0)~ 27 31 42 27 27 4 4 13 21 24 17 16 12 16 16 18 15 11 16 5 24 9 16 12 33 27 12 8 10 14 12 7 11 16 10 5 7 7 7 4 3 4 7 14 10 13 16 17 24 27 9 30 21 29 14 16 18 23 19 26 21 25 24 24 26 16 22 41 20 26 12 32 21 12 32 35 27 31 25 21 23 21 20 26 29 19 39 28 19 6 7 8 10 15 17 23 5 2 18 6 25 5 32 27 8 33 34 36 16 31 32 48 35 18 2 11 49 44 24 33 26 30 19 14 21 13 20 17 22 40 27 26 26 8 18 15 22 27 14 22 26 28 30 17 40 20 2 13 56 54 21 15 20 33 32 38 43 20 17 21 14 22 36 20 35 40 42 34 29 39 25 34 42 36 33 44 40 29 44 39 47 51 28 45 36 19 31 30 54 65 8 15 33 34 31 51 27 19 24 37 21 41 2 8 19 14 22 20 24 32 52 51 83 94 57 26 28 15 24 25 39 35 21 36 28 53 45 25 20 10 39 28 41 36 29 32 27 30 46 27 11 44 54 61 22 35 25 21 23 21 15 17 12 22 24 27 42 45 58 38 39 11 41 31 40 27 17 23 37 20 16 41 39 38 28 64 69 79 40 61 62 34 45 35 34 37 50 44 34 22 31 26 11 32 34 21 26 16 26 26 40 29 27 9 30 25 33 21 15 18 28 22 8 39 18 26 24 18 30 8 13 475=N 0=I CHA001C -2(26F3.0)~ 17 14 45 13 10 4 5 17 22 21 13 12 10 17 18 15 10 11 14 7 22 8 23 15 35 25 20 11 18 16 14 9 14 18 9 6 8 9 9 11 11 5 4 11 22 30 20 23 25 37 21 29 26 25 18 22 20 22 25 27 23 43 35 47 58 34 51 98 48 60 39 54 42 28 42 58 49 47 44 49 36 36 25 33 50 44 55 47 32 15 33 21 10 28 22 25 5 5 19 8 26 20 38 36 16 38 47 54 24 56 65 67 57 30 6 11106150 68 89 57 47 42 48 70 28 46 27 32 39 41 32 66 16 41 33 50 77 49 52 46 56 61 47105 44 10 28108 52 54 8 13 36 62106 143103 78 87 67 49 77 52 91 83 84 77 82 91 76 71 86 62 68 91 85 60101 66 86 57 30 68 66 32 63 60123120 34 23 61 75 81 69 66 32 46119 53 65 24 2 33 30 39 30 27 42 79 86110120102 65 65 54 52 56 82 72 53 96 74 86 52 36 35 15 71 62 82 50 39 48 39 52 68 37 36 95 90132 57 72 56 69 53 59 43 42 31 51 39 50 52 39 61 60 55 35 80 76 70 60 50 45 81 73 63 98 91116111204126133102149123 80116 83 92 69 100 97 64 55 47 40 25 61 64 32 36 28 30 42 56 37 27 23 47 29 44 46 31 43 44 48 29 60 39 67 56 49 68 30 39 39 42 36 66 51 54 46 45 36 61 38 89 67 76 45 62 61 45 62 49 60 35 46 37 62 43 59 57 64 84 34 98 68 66 51 43 60 45 52 46 30 42 53 91 52 83 40 95 88 33 55 81 86 73 47 54 58 46 82 50 64 86 43 59 61 60 41 50 39 47 37 53 25 20 24 40 35 57 39 53 21 23 18 53 32 17 11 23 10 25 51 43 49 41 48 49 42 37 47 51 53 38 38 48 29 33 28 15 45 30 47 44 41 56 26 25 24 40 20 22 30 28 42 81 71 89 53 68 64 48 43 67 52 20 39 29 43 37 29 40 12 22 28 5 13 14 12 21 11 15 17 29 12 14 48=N 0=I CHA001D -2(26F3.0)~ 34 52 10 15 19 16 26 12 70 63 69 33 19 46 24 14 25 43 22 36 27 14 24 20 28 21 34 38 16 30 36 29 16 32 47 38 28 38 24 18 11 24 22 16 17 12 11 35 201=N 0=I CHA001E -2(26F3.0)~ 29 21 16 24 33 37 10 11 13 14 11 6 8 6 10 4 3 6 10 19 15 18 6 8 10 13 13 22 16 15 14 13 3 5 6 10 25 23 40 15 19 14 6 17 24 17 26 23 15 11 16 10 6 9 11 2 13 3 10 15 29 27 13 8 12 11 15 10 18 16 8 4 9 6 13 9 7 2 8 11 18 33 25 34 59 56 37 42 32 31 20 28 26 23 36 37 48 40 32 39 54 34 37 60 43 58 19 57 32 21 49 51 47 42 41 54 35 26 22 32 29 28 46 41 30 7 16 26 19 23 29 35 5 8 24 5 36 17 31 29 14 46 64 70 21 46 50 48 76 28 5 15 48 84 56 62 52 47 38 39 63 39 35 37 38 67 66 64 69 21 50 51 56100 65 60 62 69 90 79130 40 10 25 97 68 58 2 23 30 54 93130103 62 90 63 46103 68135 50=N 4001=I CHA001F -2(26F3.0)~ 30 20 14 24 33 36 10 11 12 13 10 5 6 8 10 5 3 7 9 13 11 14 5 6 8 9 14 22 14 16 13 12 6 7 8 8 10 9 14 4 11 6 9 11 15 11 7 10 8 3 203=N 0=I CHA009A -2(26F3.0)~ 90120205157225 21 88148152106101184132144169140155150128141214192213 95202166 134109160149184267272205174162121100194 78177162 95182193237175217176196209281 215157187182201284207207178191161212239202147 56113170186131238127209151181193 239227190 70104142127106 88 65107113 77109 87132 57 8 87 46 62 51 61 83105125 104 59 93 19 51 55 47 26 38 84139173 75 64 52 30 89115 73 71116113 84146117134 160 80112115121122 81113120 84123 63 79 74153174 85121 85 62 88121 82105 37 46 72 55 52 87 73 38 51 51 50 59 34 54 41 19 30 38 9 23 22 24 17 21 35 32 25 44 38 37 81 68 66130173158147160132 93121 95107 62 33 22 53 35 47 177=N 0=I CHA009B -2(26F3.0)~ 70124181152208 16 86135142104 96153126126154113137134 94 66110 79131 59105108 111 82 88 74 67112 99 85 62 50 52 16 61 36 71 90 42 31 52117128 88 69 84100149 156126126128134159143148135125 76123132101 98 25 67 86133 89127 81135113171193 81154166 52 76105105 91 95 72 86 80 45 80 86 69 53 5 79 65 55 51 18 67 57 66 66 33 60 37 27 47 41 27 44 48 73 89 54 34 28 22 40 48 27 27 31 36 28 29 35 37 29 24 33 37 28 23 22 24 49 33 26 15 24 36 55 68 29 23 29 25 30 55 35 39 19 35 30 42 28 33 14 20 24 32 29 25 14 33 16 11 18 20 5 17 13 20 12 127=N 0=I CHA009C -2(26F3.0)~ 86 71 21 49 65 73 37 4 62 48 76 55 42 61 58 55 78 67104 36 39 48 43 22 41 56 64 68 36 35 21 15 54 46 20 27 39 43 22 36 34 52 43 24 50 36 40 44 39 47 92 42 65 26 57 39 74 57 24 31 25 22 40 51 52 50 23 28 36 47 36 51 35 29 34 39 37 39 16 35 25 8 20 25 11 17 11 16 14 18 22 25 28 57 41 48 71 56 49 85 73 75 70113 103 68110 51 76 52 37 17 37 22 31 60 6 17 30 32 34 49 35 59 60 41 81 345=N 0=I CHA012Y -2(26F3.0)~ 17 25 26 12 43 37 44 38 48 50 90 39 62 77 72 77 88107117104 27 53 55 68 70 49 86 65 56 35 21 12 16 17 12 21 25 18 20 19 30 39 19 15 18 22 36 40 64 61 82 63 101111 61116 84 92 81 54 48 11 7 25 30 17 36 26 36 35 42 34 62 43 51 33 47 34 36 27 30 51 57 88116 97108 86 53 59 55 37 54 7 38 30 42 21 64 80 93 70 78 65 61 56 53 31 49 26 46 53 19 42 37 46 27 37 35 51 46 86 78 96 75 91 61 46 43 56 59 53 49 22 63 50 43 51 47 67 61 59 72 20 36 11 60 59 66 48 91 45 63 76 82 38 57 54 44 57 45 37 25 53 26 20 41 35 39 25 14 52 32 38 62 34 54 36 22 23 46 26 30 59 87 59 55 13 45 34 29 49 42 53 62 96 72 50 34 63 64 40 56 79 73 71 53 52 30 52 54 10 50 45 59 54 16 40 38 21 18 56 22 36 25 19 24 46 28 31 49 36 17 11 35 45 13 28 29 7 39 38 26 24 19 40 54 53 46 39 17 69 55 41 16 45 65 63 27 57 39 67 56 38 73 31 77 56 27 44 21 7 31 30 11 18 17 31 11 50 23 39 31 24 51 46 55 72 75 59 70 65 59 43 21 32 35 23 29 56 8 24 43 55 7 54 17 11 10 30 18 16 32 22 7 47 36 22 52 47 44 36 47 23 38 29 36 40 43 40 7 27 26 23 14 11 24 27 19 14 22 26 39 60 42 318=N 0=I CHA017A -2(26F3.0)~ 66 20 19 31 22 32 57 48 77115101 75 25 39 67 57 13 64 75104 95 64 54 39 21 35 52 31 66 50 58 52 51 49 48 30 47 33 33 31 22 23 32 40 43 32 28 32 23 27 35 28 40 38 34 24 31 33 32 29 46 25 36 48 45 38 48 42 55 42 39 44 32 14 27 43 38 62 40 32 53 17 30 39 38 31 39 54 31 41 32 9 35 31 37 28 29 36 41 40 29 32 38 26 27 40 34 53 47 31 30 51 60 49 44 26 22 25 47 40 41 29 28 41 39 30 32 33 21 40 31 33 26 39 31 23 27 34 17 13 14 17 26 25 26 14 16 20 18 12 26 19 27 17 19 23 30 17 16 23 15 22 17 18 17 21 5 17 19 11 21 13 24 23 20 15 23 17 18 22 19 22 26 14 18 19 26 33 19 11 15 20 25 28 42 49 31 43 95 89 58 65 65 92 88 56 76 32 33 58 73 44 50 63 72 57 47 54 67 35 81 49 50 36 55 71 80124122140 92116 97115 65 64 56 53 79 61 62 53 43 52 81113 74 81 63 60 48 52 61 27 53 35 30 44 20 35 29 32 24 23 39 30 25 64 42 61 59 52 39 40 38 51 62 33 34 16 32 41 42 47 63 50 44 63 43 13 26 23 29 24 22 24 42 18 32 30 27 18 32 20 25 28 28 25 16 33 15 21 29 25 32 14 4 14 318=N 0=I CHA017B -2(26F3.0)~ 71 21 16 35 24 37 59 49 79125101 70 30 50 73 55 12 62 72105 98 69 48 41 23 33 63 38 68 54 63 41 45 41 38 32 43 22 25 20 16 19 33 42 45 39 31 35 26 24 34 25 38 28 29 24 25 34 30 22 39 29 28 33 28 26 30 31 35 29 25 27 23 8 17 20 22 41 20 19 31 9 24 34 30 21 26 47 20 24 21 2 18 12 18 14 20 18 28 29 21 28 26 27 20 29 30 37 38 25 22 36 35 32 35 15 12 10 32 34 31 19 15 24 20 14 17 17 12 31 26 19 17 24 21 15 24 17 13 8 7 17 21 24 27 14 17 18 13 4 23 24 22 14 16 18 25 16 17 21 15 20 16 16 17 21 9 18 13 15 18 13 17 16 17 15 24 16 19 22 17 23 16 15 19 17 24 21 23 9 15 12 23 31 38 28 19 17 33 23 20 38 24 33 35 19 27 18 17 23 25 11 23 24 30 21 17 19 31 20 31 20 27 26 41 21 32 46 42 52 48 53 47 55 32 46 33 28 30 19 18 23 24 29 47 40 23 34 29 28 25 13 29 9 31 14 13 26 8 19 15 13 15 14 27 23 20 33 19 32 24 22 22 17 19 21 17 14 15 7 20 21 16 24 21 23 27 22 27 3 19 7 26 21 23 16 30 15 29 26 21 13 31 15 18 25 21 19 16 34 17 23 28 21 31 15 4 10 176=N 0=I CHA017C -2(26F3.0)~ 63 40 38 19 33 41 47 50 64 50 45 48 43 8 24 21 34 42 52 33 49 25 45 68 55 40 71 32 51 69 56 58 41 57 47 49 60 55 61 35 23 36 30 27 17 15 18 3 6 4 2 9 4 12 9 4 3 2 2 5 2 7 7 3 5 10 6 2 8 21 14 9 13 20 10 19 10 17 12 19 19 12 21 19 27 18 13 14 17 17 20 27 12 14 10 13 12 28 9 16 17 27 9 13 21 23 2 11 12 2 22 19 14 10 11 19 14 13 21 12 7 13 18 22 16 14 9 14 10 18 14 24 26 22 35 17 33 19 8 18 12 5 19 41 11 16 7 21 13 37 10 26 28 23 39 24 26 45 34 43 29 32 41 29 25 31 33 31 19 35 5 17 33 41 3 30 74=N 0=I CHA017D -2(26F3.0)~ 65 17 12 20 23 28 57 53 82128130 70 15 40 59 49 13 61 66 86 89 61 47 32 18 30 43 30 59 46 49 36 47 55 38 35 52 30 34 26 21 26 29 33 47 44 37 38 31 34 47 33 28 34 36 27 30 37 38 33 45 26 31 42 43 36 49 46 53 37 40 41 28 16 35=N 0=I CHA017E -2(26F3.0)~ 64 20 12 16 27 25 54 43 74122124 73 19 38 55 44 11 47 58 87 82 52 37 25 11 26 28 27 48 44 50 29 42 59 30 114=N 0=I CHA017F -2(26F3.0)~ 5 7 12 12 14 7 8 11 13 6 9 13 5 8 6 8 6 12 16 11 21 13 21 16 7 12 15 10 13 18 10 15 10 2 14 9 20 11 16 11 15 7 5 18 2 14 11 5 15 9 6 4 5 8 7 10 12 7 4 12 15 11 10 16 10 13 11 14 8 19 20 13 26 12 30 18 5 10 5 4 11 14 5 10 4 13 4 25 7 18 19 15 26 16 20 31 22 25 21 16 26 17 5 26 24 21 9 19 2 11 21 26 2 21 298=N 0=I CHA060A -2(26F3.0)~ 61 73112 57 67 48 61 59 82110123 74 85 83 82 75 64 68 55 65 78110126122116154 94 84112155148 77113 82 83 84 84 75 87132119 93 79 65 53 45 76 74 99 80 28 72 84 93 97 74 51 86 62 53 44 86 47 67 44 68 78 60 71 77 53 49 77 70 60 55 49 77 104 97 97 53 41 23 74 73 94 71 99 47 69 64 85 61104 81 74 58 60 81 71 72 53 32 64 51 76 38 37 67 75100105113128 35 56 52 61 32 29 50 94107127 18 83 95106 95 65 79 99 87 49 57 45 56 82 57 57 37104111 46 44 51 50 64 15 52 57 81 61 30 41 35 54 68107 55 43 22 29 21 45 22 22 14 17 9 15 33 35 14 40 34 26 32 42 17 18 15 43 41 35 36 33 17 29 34 23 17 28 38 34 28 38 44 98 87 39124 45 68 54 25 15 4 2 18 33 35 32 14 18 13 31 10 24 31 14 26 27 24 45 41 55 41 58 50 54 24 38 25 30 12 23 6 14 29 35 16 30 10 14 12 32 51 17 35 27 13 37 22 12 34 27 21 24 49 19 17 23 13 11 22 18 3 17 34 32 13 10 12 15 6 5 10 4 7 8 5 19 20 20 39 12 10 18 12 25 32 44 39 22 42 45 167=N 0=I CHA060B -2(26F3.0)~ 26 56 60 38 73 39 24 55 56 90117155148 47 73 88 59 28 27 50 94 88100 36 74 70 66 77 68 70 85114 89 76 54 84 81 54 60 35121113 52 51 41 29 74 19 56 62 85 70 29 34 24 21 26 60 53 32 19 14 11 28 23 19 16 17 14 13 25 23 9 13 14 9 14 21 6 3 5 14 13 17 13 12 2 33 27 32 28 54 60 59 36 52 48 83 34 23 58 32 44 38 19 9 2 2 16 20 20 10 11 15 11 29 11 30 33 21 31 37 40 58 58 84 65 68 54 54 17 45 47 39 19 17 4 17 32 39 14 27 15 5 13 30 44 21 30 22 13 25 9 2 36 27 25 27 62 34 27 35 15 9 21 15 19 128=N 0=I CHA060C -2(26F3.0)~ 60100158 87 95118132119144136155124125 80111 99 60 74 46 70 75 97135115118170 106 91135167147100 77 88 87 91 81 73 95135118 89 77 65 53 50 79 75101 79 29 73 82 95 97 74 49 86 61 57 44 85 48 66 47 70 78 63 71 77 54 49 80 70 62 58 48 80 105 85103 49 41 21 78 72 93 72 99 48 70 64 87 64127 74 78 83 53 79 61 60 37 28 34 25 62 31 28 61 67 81 85 64 93 44 35 45 44 18 21 37 63 73 86 25 63 65 100=N 0=I CHA060D -2(26F3.0)~ 115 80116 39 74 50 44 30 39 6 25 30 44 35 50 40 18 32 47 76 53 68 75 43 76 72 46 80 71 64 60115 85 50 62 41 23 30 56 14 47 81 94 42 89 27 85 8 18 10 16 24 18 26 22 32 51 58 73 66 69 47 40 56 50 73 88107 87 67 80 31 52 64 81 34 39 17 43 29 61 60 47 65 79114 22 68 59113 54103106110 58 82107133180178 2).rwm all series cross-dated measurements = 4 trees 270=N 0=I CHA044d -2(26F3.0)~ 42 76 35 37 35 27 47 24 95105128 94102 51 37 26 38 30 35 20 37 19 16 39 50 44 78 44 69 79 66 31 55 32 34 17 51 37 36 88 73 17 15 27 76 45 48 39 70 47 52 25 44 65 62 19 38 29 36 16 37 3 15 37 36 25 34 20 22 50 78 37 14 68 94 93 87 78 82 68 55 38 21 43 28 39 43 56 42116 45 47 40 27 45 54 39 34 40 42 45 83 42 29 34 37 43 48102 53 74 31 47 48 37 43 29 12 11 8 30 15 54 24 62100138113 51100 48 15 13 28 12 18 19 41 30 38 36 48 48 20 38 40 45 35 19 48 61 59 27 20 33 49 41 50 32 15 35 38 21 38 54 24 58 55118 95107 70 28 26 30 43 39 59 20 37 35 24 58 47 47 83 26 68 53 38 65 31 33 64 52 15 54 29 10 10 12 16 19 32 17 42 27 36 27 41 19 19 36 29 51 74 57 38 44 38 71 57 38 22 15 19 16 35 24 30 8 19 39 51 18 32 17 25 14 17 12 10 11 20 26 6 12 18 13 30 7 17 19 20 13 24 12 21 26 19 22 20 20 13 22 32 12 16 6 6 167=N 37=I MAY928d -3(20F4.0)~ 85 160 220 375 700 605 295 465 225 630 185 335 300 320 195 345 285 215 460 405 170 320 140 85 35 35 50 125 55 190 65 90 175 235 180 55 280 410 500 540 310 360 410 345 240 255 415 245 505 665 560 475 950 430 195 465 345 495 275 290 335 615 765 420 610 420 415 510 380 525 540 675 410 720 260 710 655 550 730 270 350 210 190 210 390 450 390 540 600 280 330 200 495 395 185 110 580 435 315 335 495 565 325 400 510 220 85 440 480 280 430 145 615 595 720 815 535 815 580 580 790 740 67511751080 820 790 880 430 880 995 935 625 945 205 110 160 410 780 585 1135 335 640 420 505 390 540 450 830 4751015 660 535 420 110 200 430 310 410 350 70 140 50 120 180 330 200 133=N 155=I MAY925X -5(13F6.0)~ 84333 75750136750 97000104500121750162250 89500 91000 92000 47000109250 98250 68500 69750 88000 9500 41250 77750 46250 73750 48250 79000 37750 63500 46750 60000 47750 68000 50500 75750 64250105750 72250 69500102500 45250 86250134000 139750 10250125250104000 45250 81000 54750103000 99500100750 54750117500 51500 75500 76750124250 95250112250121500122750178500132250165250 79750118000 85000 120750122500 81500 54250 66750 76000 61000100250 76250112000 39000 61750 78000 128750 86750 75250 52750 80500 79500107250 71000 50500 78250 57000 44500 34333 3500 36000 56000 5500 15500 44500 28000 47500 62000 57000 25500 45000 42000 37500 30500 49500 55000 34500 44500 13500 37500 42000 40500 31500 23500 14500 13500 33500 24000 20000 11500 8500 19000 27000 7000 24000 35000 37000 33000 24000 14000 24000 138=N 158=I MAY9271 -2(26F3.0)~ 130102116161111 95 71 38 87 79 90 82103 13 53 87 51 99 54118 39 96 69 86 62 84 50 89 91124106 94133 69 95110 87 10104 95 71 95 66 90101111 78116 47 71 64117 60 68 95101116102 88 40 55 33 69 97 55 37 43 34 44 61 31 34 9 22 41 53 36 38 43 58 44 69 40 24 44 40 30 29 6 29 51 8 19 42 15 19 31 27 11 23 30 29 17 29 26 16 22 9 21 30 23 20 14 15 12 21 15 18 13 8 23 21 7 18 17 20 15 12 7 18 9 10 7 8 16 3 13 8 Some information about the super-long tree-ring chronology the East of Taymir and Putoran (10.10.1998) 1. There are following samples in our laboratory (Fig.1): - tree-ring cores and cross-sections from living tree of different sites near the northern (Ari-Mas) and upper timberline (Kotuy river) - 70 samples; - cross-sections from dead (about 200-1900 years ago) trees from the upper timberline (Kotuy river) - 163 samples; - cross-sections of subfossil wood - 167 samples. 2. What abready done? - Measurements: 91 cross-sections of dead trees 45 cross-sections of subfossil wood (only some have radiocarbon dates); - The results of cross-dating: a) the chronology from BC 212 till AD 1996 was built (2209 years) for the dead trees. 118 samples (from 27 living trees and 91 dead trees) were cross-dated (Fig.2). b) 9 samples of subfossil wood from Heta and Maimecha rivers were used to build the 543 years - chronology from AD 746 till AD 1288 years. c) the 296 years "floating" chronology was built using 4 samples of subfossil wood. The radiocarbon dates 1 sample (MAY925) - years BP 2440#20 B-6785 (Fig 2). d) the 685 years "floating" chronology was built using 5 samples of subfossil wood. The radiocarbon dates of this material lay near the climatic optimum of Holocene - years BP 5150 till 4910 (Fig. 2); d) some floating chronologies were built using 1-2 samples (Fig.2). - The results of radiocarbon dating is showuin (Tabl.1 and Fig.2). 3. The potential of the dendrochronological material: The radiocarbon dates and all the chronologies built show the great potential of the collected material to get the 5500 years (maybe longer) chronology from the climatic optimum of Holocene till the present time. 4. INFORMATION DATA (Compact format ITRDB): trwcrn.rwm -> Tree-ring widths (TRW) chronology (Tabl.2 TIME SERIES) Ident. No. - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 time series measurements 1).rwm -> Cross-dated measurements, Ident. No. 1). 2).rwm -> Cross-dated measurements, Ident. No. 2). 11).rwm -> Cross-dated measurements, Ident. No. 11). rcscrn.rwm -> RCS index cronology (Briffa et al, 1992,1996) 5 or more series (trees) - interval BC 81 till AD 1994 years: 1) RCS chronology 2) RCS-RES chronology 3) 5-years moving average concordance coeffient tem-rec.rwm -> Temperature reconstructed: 1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology 2) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology (5-years moving average) 3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology (5-years moving average) Tabl.1 RADIOCARBON DATES OF TAYMIR SAMPLES _________________________________________________________________________ Radiocarbon Age: Ident. Lab. Uncalibrated Calibrated age(s) Dendrochronology age, No. No. age, ***, Years BP Years AD/BC Years AD/BC __________________________________________________________________________ 1 KTU-004 230#65 so an-3391** - 1750 AD 1 KTU-030 400#35 so an-3392** - 1500 AD 1 KTU-009 665#50 so an-3390** - 1300 AD 1 MAY-923 910#30 B-6089 * 1161 AD 1168 AD 1 MAY-918 960#30 B-6087 * 1037 AD 1108 AD MAY-920 1100#30 B-6088 * 974 AD (Betula) 2 MAY-925 2440#20 B-6785 * 514 BC - 2 MAY-927 - - - 2 MAY-928 - - - 2 CHA-044 - - - NOV-069 2890#20 B-6788 * 1030 BC - 3 CHA-H1 3110#30 B-6083 * 1398 BC - CHA-059 3400#30 B-6427 * 1683 BC - 4 MAY-702 3930#30 B-6784 * 2456 BC - NOV-077 4240#30 B-6789 * 2881 BC - 5 NOV-001 4370#40 B-6419 * 2923 BC - 6 CHA-H6 4510#40 B-6086 * 3302, 3234, 3178, - 3164, 3110 BC NOV-030 4570#40 B-6082 * 3345 BC - 7 NOV-078 4600#40 B-6420 * 3358 BC - NOV-080 4640#30 B-6421 * 3370 BC - 8 NOV-A02 4680#40 B-6081 * 3497, 3457, 3378 BC - 9 CHA-005 4730#30 B-6780 * 3611, 3608, 3513, - 3391, 3390 BC CHA-023 4750#30 B-6781 * 3617, 3588, 3528 BC - 10 NOV-029 4810#40 B-6080 * 3634 BC - CHA-043 4900#30 B-6783 * 3690, 3666 BC - 11 CHA-060 4970#40 B-6418 * 3761, 3735, 3726 BC - 11 CHA-060 4910#40 so an-3390** - - 11 CHA-012 4980#30 B-6423 * 3772 BC - 11 CHA-012 4855#45 so an-3388** - - 11 CHA-009 4990#30 B-6424 * 3776 BC - 11 CHA-017 5010#40 B-6425 * 3785 BC - CHA-H4 5020#40 B-6084 * 3792 BC - CHA-036 5040#30 B-6782 * 3899, 3884, 3801 BC - CHA-032 5110#30 B-6426 * 3950 BC - 11 CHA-001 5150#40 B-6085 * 3964 BC - 11 CHA-001 4865#45 so an-3387** - - CHA-011 5250#30 B-6422 * 4038, 4014, 4007 BC - NOV-005 5400#30 B-6787 * 4310, 4248 BC - ____________________________________________________________________________ * - Institute of Fhysics, University of Bern, Swiss. ** - Institute of geology, geophysics and mineralogy, Novosibirsk, Russia. *** - Stuiver M. and Reimer P.J., 1993, Radiocarbon, 35, p. 215-230 # - +/- Tabl.2 TIME SERIES ____________________________________________________________ Interval, Years AD/BC: Ident. No. Trees, Years Chronology No. Start End samples _____________________________________________________________ 1 118 -212 1996 2209 2 4 -670* -375 296 3 1 -1398* -1093 306 4 1 -2456* -2187 270 5 1 -2923* -2678 245 6 1 -3178* -2874 345 7 1 -3358* -3060 299 8 1 -3457* -3172 286 9 1 -3513* -3316 198 10 1 -3634* -3329 306 11 5 -3964* -3280 685 ______________________________________________________________ * - Calibrated radiocarbon age (Tabl.1) rcscrn.rwm 118 series => RCS index cronology (Briffa et al, 1992,1996) 5 or more series (trees) - interval BC 81 till AD 1994 years: 1) RCS chronology 2) RCS-RES chronology 3) 5-years moving average concordance coeffient 1) RCS chronology 2076=N -81=I RCS -4(16F5.0)~ 14011 4098116021511022253208791840716758 9341 7692 659314917 934112637 745910221 9116147221564214246144441452517877162011089413559 98871440714000105111221615625 91951120716286 9770 84801315814244 3216 9706133141065110651 9467 95241227513030 9091 454513190 4908 70551543214286 9317 7188 312511950 8176 8805 8228 6051 6774 8766 8766 5844 3595 6536 3947 5298 4000 8054 5369 6711 7432 3716 9459 839710808 8521 5000 5423 8527 965413500 5462 462 7634 5057 5192 4115 5802 7577 7346 6260 1145 6844 9620 6046 8821 8923 38210496 6046 4297 7443 4144 7358 5817 9925 3521 200011610 4566 168510491 2809 3895 2959 3955 3708 6679 5660 4943 4679 3170 1199 8539 5094 4045 4719 5746 7090 8614 6180 6367 7266 4113 6264 6604 614210936 5623 7338 5267 8053 2863 8130 2366 7252 7557 4731 7388 9814 6778 750911593 8598 4945 658112564142281014711530 9036 761611479 99651245614007 6505 8034 979210451 6632 8962148441314411438 7318 9700 5927 90071253312310 8284 213111320 8878 194712664 11776 4868 7467 73031190810789 811911413 9278122141310714348 8940 89371455111495 106621900716964181521818512508 5987114431144713729 4178 4125 506310000 7555 6865 959211447 9654 765812921 952410633 847110603 834412244 939116977152901161315484 56631685115033 9379 3980 910911258 5927107001171111145 138510510 5918 5442 9726 628912379 7690 751711993 986 2261 3203 7046 8363 9570 4152 8267 5018 6836 7709 7390 3764 8635 8848 9366 5506 7678 5585 3182 8023 3168 4046 6577 895811622 5156 5608 6285 876 3705 7960 2800 8065 4919 5182 1510 8402 5844 4362 35951182611292 5732 7173 8686 669512000 4298 8283 780210345 6696 3130 75551432313640 745610702 572710363 600811012 9510 7623122541118913992 98771967119711185891925019665 8319 970516356147031402514255 897912532 9004115581259715000 757711700150611333324082 432717824204601543913473174901141716611 679214917142922600017500185001495812469 15397 9833 7731 852918870 918810468135171468416160 8608 369715565 8243 3128 7951 1267513265 8402122131288612967 9431102421326612972156801304011036140241115110593 11220 5020 590613255 44311218812383117971406315686 9961 3438 750013774 684811434 1140612188 9492 1716 802211791 39031092911642 959010487 9607 1679 4321 9391 9570 3405 366910216 8989 895310217 6522 7455 2545 7818125911215313248163741714810913 893112786 450416603 7454 9299 8856 7815 97781055613346 529914440 179810789 8906 1154713019146211327010000 8973 8550 76251429113192 5907 934418919147291221813789 709817216 66141442715257 8373124301310812160 538213548 782312186 7918 647511475 162961839515081160321502011457 522111907113621476613216 436813885 819217876 6240 11712 7188152161110211614 569218492106371644016965146091184311142124511227113120 1072613455 8449150411045511901107881570812689 9496110471303519922 5313 859411529 12992 9409 5889 8000 7885 9691 9922 9961 7198 6641 8549 6299 8661 7154 808814000 113651413714274137801320310902 92911237212128 5466 96581401710538 8125 9355 5444 5181 7229 3855 5040 5219 8406 5595 9447 3704 5123 7633 6748 8826 2892 9197 6295 6270 600810346 600911111 7468 878711333 7066124081317111734 66931297613228 7695 12907 235510038 67301299214699 44031563013579 659 1745 4928 9422 4624 2464 8227 1555 3592 2632 4774 7770 7321 6797 4787 6502 1368 667811324 6505 7958 9897 9007 147441348110816 9763126781653212323 880811716 73601727018783 809813770 8852 9869 1236118951 836115115177381629514836 80591894715281157431907613245183441093018300 1553319632117061794120163 91481059410563 2326121001247512718 9504109611544513416 105361552016007 92451446010616 72461121713954140301212911407 749015802 469515191 858210307 888915134 2731 6077 8038 9154 592311245 9200 8635 9720 3546 705210876 865110843 7023 9084 539910989 7576 9886 8826 6742 9698 9434 68681086511648 3333 13483 505611199120521626914963 8736 6097 832111338 59481033512193 8327 379214833 10335 7732 99631260212937 8333 7658 1784 817214142 9664 672 2463 876410977 6654 9286 9019 2264 4531113610644 5475 9466 9962 9808 4483 9115111581069510388 4553 14163 87111529415529 201613929 8413 8127 348012480 7430 697612661 2927 930911143 10451 7984 4280 9793 5292 3515 6276 8333 6404 6784 8282 8502 7257 5841 9381 8274 977214000 7000 863612273 81821518210234 4372 80091281111558 6250160341575110258 7094 684213114 375512707 4522 8268 71981686710255 6894 801714958129061461911646 1004214125101651222212449 7398 6169 5622 4680 9921 5652 7290 7947 1811 992511288 12642 7753158211578817701129821595721223 66311355915142121201073916000 986014146 9375 687510512 581610000 4797 4061 7993 4139 752510987 76071480411792 8182 6071 5487 6440 8935 8476107911557012681 76341237511000 8349 2317 6372 5706 7125 9235 5138 6269 7219 3614 5732 9472 7640 8292 4334112881504612362 886514417 9785 6442 11963106441018312208 7161 605710954 812 3500 7913 7757 4969 6906 6062 811911567 6024 88651138513723156311144611061 3303 7152 648110912 9471 5559 42941174014248 12183182841145014451 5327 4209128061432812934 9488 960812598 808810143 620717320 1725411420107851533518333 9208 670610914 1213 5371 4881 7006 3462 8095 8836 8383 3874 80061027312280 7622 585910862 448912928 915611254110691314312994 9042 9583 175161587714723 888913388 7450 4086 3967 516810743 525411088 5822 2405 9792 4306 7003 5333 1373 6749 2206 5735 7914 3574 5000 6618 2821 8986 94161527514485 3727 830913249 8442 576611355119192077819665 4590214231338314811 9734 7977 4406 7568 5830 962112510147711716517846144572023326693221091611822244 4032189682215119120 203601536318543135771742914000 6270 9588 7810 655610705 9458 4833 933612996 8761 1768912124 50221013312655 8805147352340714381121932021918947 750016419 698710917 1200910917 8991 50661576418297110481517415739177831647814217 6348 761912554 6710 1177513060 7155 5905 7436 7930 6711125331387014329 918117803 7333 920412247 6070 1126 8276 8889 5932 6414 719713651133881547317837165851991914569 5970 722210295 4963 99641443313045 9313 39381391210508 9932 9226127091100316367162791635811683 12211 802612033 969315505 7584190211432917591 2744 94821262215000145751002915220 13323 9852131161569711108 95741102311168 769211368139891528613486132951649411523 181561459510406 327511749 7813 3304 6686 8735 6932 28781354214388117071741011057 16394 8506107031625815185 1957 831818750133331246112095 920410385141481398124838 3257 87251219710285179681684715733158131975818655 782019966 872410862 5034 4759 10448148621127613552 610316414 55851357910836150322289014693125571055217078 9286 141751358316124 5260 701311786 7346 7638 928810712 6935 4387 8419 125810129 7968 8226 874210194 7968 9806 790310540 4000 638116943 5446 130612204 9175 3531 6602 8026 4434 4757 9256 4595 5566 867311812 9708 327911753 953111500 95631100014515 1658814732 696811924 536410142 2045 5954 465711203 8625 9713 6340 800610405 7333 12122 8251 5526 8387 7393 6322 9222 716810407 9300 8480 4076 3982 8580 802313509 4487 4189 9497 7619 961111171 6416 7609 2399 9097 7937 404411321 5899 5886 8861 6646 6925 8140 7104 2080 3425 4509 3108 6369 5031 2679 7672 5629 6757 2072 3765 6737 4018 4636 4711 5478 3376 9841 1975 5924 8503 3387 5240 9073 5705 2019 5641 8942 971110289 900314839 7323 4693 6602 8447 7110 938311107 7362143251678219412 14187184431747411107153291539814256 4775 3910 1142 3958 2639 9063 5729 621514132 1348414878 1463 5226 48431094410306 2891 6678 9424 972911017177701299713056 9618 11216 865814195178261203313522160601498311316 806611438 668811097 51451180110319 100321219711238108231277612208 3491 7327 927914389 946910938 8750190942233623396 1445212742 1613 751610221 538513750122681124612134159241098715048124611182414013 6082 8438158101243711962124291899410252 9875150161025013687 96251471911745 9502 897213551129601155812679 5171104631102213056100621099112136 6130 559012484 6149 1158915171 82191203817862 657213616 8328 8927 3323 354411841 89841057311981 4920 5481 9678 7935 9968 8350 8442 9577 294111377 7730 7327 768210265 378711333 7893 11409 96681100013077 35911545510068 7288 3810 6724 3767 886610241 55711066014111 9863 3918 979314567 99311264810804 5228104931254410957103201075011470 8929 3656 798617076117751058210657 9121 5351 8815 643111082 4981 6316 4151 8068 6540 7977 11111 7654 4363 5194 3658 6824 53941004011071 9203 3123 551610159 8920 2000 8554 879013036 97981326514221 8648 1844 7078 8889 4132 7107 9545 4108110371004213042 99181351210744 9545 5331 607413678 8264 74801188010720 8720120881417713414 8996 12410 59271052410403 95971303611053 983810567 410613659 4694 538813388 8402 8566 518513457 461512105 9959 8618 81611959 4221 7642 609812245 7020 9344 791815123 12746 5738 7692 9190 4696 678910732 824510041 85661020512295 8156 799213074 7131 938811469 8857 1960 4819 6024 7631 2016 7054 9650 716010584 9157 5417 775712814 5687 8397 7663 8538105381123614232 4737124441660413636 3485 8365 419810038 8966 5769 5373 9551 7218 680512189 53901156110709 9101 49811007312930 487210809 9631 7343 6926 803010632150751269713910 860410868 981111939 5758 6578 7962 8295 4697 5475 7191 4925 4151 7727 5747 3000 8962 7799 658910388 883310313 910210863 8275 12913 2846 5771 2619 1786 6172 5647 3569 5961 9646138171194712184 751011455 9636 72991065712857 6557134191176511993 292410325 9130 9927 9088 6533 886410625 9669 17011 4222158741492511648 94011194913165 7040 847813091 98551332112857 8162 3616 1396314126114181314616504178111575812772 985014755 9583 6692 8855 96151586910078 6926 241211401 976612392 94091608715992177781095618288 937510902 9724 338610198 15079106771735413477 63141066710276137941074215647137401039414479 95741531011751 89841113316471192551007812802 8716 706611236 3946109581119212625127521096915798 40631373510039 9219 7665 3268 4844 6863 5354 6640 4722 7450 2600 4710 7597 9222 8506 6988 2597 6822 81321164112078 287413004 5635 2351 948011084 8669 8219 6220 640811189 921811570 8640 7952 818511296 7642 8659 3837 8730 4542150201092011285 996113294119691359710040203091771314008135111452116423 8571 647317782 2763 8320 866710591 5217 500011912 796015360170681536317935141461400016865 7968 6840 7430 1385513065 7571 89841522412336 753111901109921875519042 9958 5546 62871250011617 9447 9957 5708 8491 753218913 772910000 8377 4670 80971172614622131251296017477 1683313982 98641536414201189141177318500 680418009160631656112500197731739715556 14267179111604419464231702250030000255362744418565292832166712703219371094618235 13439165002327314773186361689515160127521477113349130881414710599162501018512000 17302 995313505131781093911362 7075 62261071112701 84361142918421 63641052612692 1206719324 8792156801043316250 4734144931177812500 595214371 2) RCS-RES chronology 2072=N -77=I RCS-RES -3(20F4.0)~ 2215183713291085 308 403 5181600 9341314 6661010 9371551155212601228117115331284 6941090 71013391275 85411081441 69710301564 759 74412901347 1611056140110631107 891 92112681297 822 3801440 473 87317881433 854 617 2381408 9541046 954 670 850 10841062 732 526 922 658 885 7441185 834 9731020 571127610581285 961 543 6941081 11981562 538 811041 751 879 762 91311101025 872 31110451309 84911621053 1121401 793 6641077 6191069 8591286 524 4311562 646 4481455 456 738 653 767 8141118 937 824 790 627 4841352 865 757 830 90010651177 833 853 947 605 923 946 8861407 701 931 6981034 4931140 47510851085 71110561231 841 9461344 927 569 81614671558 999 1106 780 7081227101713021390 488 79010171109 7291013161312951064 584 920 5831043 14221283 801 16313171005 31315991284 521 908 82813871206 8391205 905126313071354 719 78014391043 9991870143815161411 716 176 99910661378 315 437 67312861010 896 115812731031 8001373 9241084 8351078 8521299 93817451400 9131363 22916571352 702 261 9221225 672125812451128 931229 690 7451274 7701484 843 8301340 69 457 655 112212681264 5721049 667 9311042 952 577114811081129 680 929 714 5261147 565 753 104112241448 613 705 810 281 7741230 6061236 768 804 4541244 906 743 68815471356 671 855 981 8001426 4831007 9401197 797 426101016951478 7061053 4881139 6861268 1058 816135311211406 87919141721145614571381 189 6091457126012331187 5831111 753 112012411429 5821106143811832320 -7916101764109710131362 7061418 338137512822458 12961310 899 6891209 641 588 8081951 774 977127013101483 577 1691623 750 354 996 14211449 837121212071197 818 9301278121114791088 8621233 901 9231033 388 6651515 48514431309114613871412 743 149 7801513 735129211551181 900 87 9691374 5001360 1266 9821107 932 135 63112351212 537 6031320111711011154 677 858 372106215471354 137715461478 746 6191127 2911787 656 933 926 782110511401396 4641523 8012441016 1252139713971176 788 743 781 77915551314 488 9541923131710311144 4001672 4531422 1437 599118711701076 4111377 7111270 786 648128116931779124512541093 756 2421151 110614901235 2241406 7221845 4751121 651154710691080 4651884 909155614911091 865 821105010821196 9201232 6801459 9031088 98314791102 759 99011971917 224 7481101 1253 929 544 851 884113211271069 754 738 993 7641071 877 97815831146139712911155 1096 846 75111621131 450102114501015 795 925 532 656 953 603 823 8451172 8271218 534 7541056 9161158 4581196 829 848 8531271 7601318 836 9811252 720135313231096 57312881262 6701304 1101141 79114711569 31716371232-110 311 7281308 795 5511173 402 762 672 90712311065 950 694 898 37810521489 84510151129 97915931294 942 847 116515621036 6811044 60317751768 4941214 615 87712411840 6001383154512921163 408 1700121912831600 8361478 643153111961600 72214301618 396 776 820 88139813271295 912100914791183 87814081363 6411290 821 5721131136613351075 957 5731555 3231583 775 989 9001509 174 705 9651079 79113221002 9351056 375 8951299 9961231 729 979 6151266 8651114 973 72811051031 76812231219 3251518 5001263130216041369 606 437 8021208 66311861292 820 42116391029 794105612471272 749 720 181104516661052 121 43011751403 8861106 981 292 28815051332 743114710691054 5131057124211461088 425 1527 85415761468 -601438 743 834 4551420 843 8341434 283113312571105 866 4571134 654 570 9351106 895 92510381021 882 7381130 97311261504 642 8931263 7841589 919 339 88013671208 63616611450 825 564 5931371 3911454 485 965 89218411006 628 807 151912551383 963 7881290 84211331135 592 602 634 6431283 766 9641000 33513171338 1384 792158214341545 96612491763 15911291262 948 9291438 7411286 749 5621081 581 1146 580 5811080 63610751361 88916331126 718 579 588 82211351047124216291162 613 1162 982 774 245 804 79910071211 685 848 939 568 8831244 9751033 572133516291200 7961345 801 5621237103110251223 628 6251205 137 64011361057 788 956 82210571375 6911029123514001520 944 908 154 767 79713081108 637 5721383155412261753 8331191 258 335141714811285 836 8281186 7271028 61718181641 901 86413021590 606 4621000 66 785 7721015 674114311441028 550101212161363 806 6231189 5051496 97811651116 12461200 751 873169813961225 5761111 547 371 544 7551405 7471349 684 3791270 611 996 794 3821067 546 9911173 629 840 969 5631272119417001434 199 8341343 832 657 1234121420861710 71927 8941169 705 538 384 868 7671204143015111615150210411624 21511486 8451512-3571595185314111556 8571275 8091312 978 256 829 708 71912371022 56010941399 89618131016 306 9981222 861151022021026 83516431391 2851373 342 981 1166 994 865 47616671775 8941325124414371278 992 249 5911232 65312851308 630 620 822 925 854144614381366 7531634 457 8101183 514 21410771106 821 885 90715561394 1482157212851578 933 139 521 977 541119315511264 844 299144210321007 93012311041 157114251328 808 906 5571108 9011517 629183411821465 -70 819123114521382 7781334 1080 76311781381 884 791 9721012 717115613691422115910801382 82915711105 695 112 1157 792 446 9151070 898 5111619152411401649 7961403 558 89115201296 -15 8331886 12021134 986 677 943135112722302-143 6741098 914183514651239120615371364 2681678 438 872 393 4801246161111331290 4341583 41213561024139821361021 843 6711419 660 126711571372 277 6091190 737 89210331137 753 5391018 29913511025100610471099 860 1058 8391125 454 8001877 524 2511432 989 517 895 972 650 7641202 669 83511281361 1071 381131610021221 9781063140615081222 4031029 4011070 296 820 747141210701100 710 8921160 8101327 835 593 969 849 8031120 85011931016 903 487 570112010331560 496 5371143 90411641231 661 855 35211561013 6071395 699 7701095 801 8931001 863 398 642 800 6981071 858 6121147 852 975 482 7071044 735 839 816 882 6811340 446 9261152 562 8551189 782 470 889119212221198 9591499 636 466 771 987 90711331223 778149915901707104314191248 621119611751093 209 310 232 729 7041363 906 9091650 13691421 -23 545 63113421250 404 873111311281235177610991081 715 936 76213801667 945111613091160 833 5661014 5921161 55112881084101212301035100211911086 236 795 10261543 9631063 804184419951868 803 658-289 6781117 66315881227106011341422 872 1317 991 9461216 396 80815771128109710791674 714 7681323 7941259 79713341004 787 8121287120010351128 353104511021291 95910151119 514 6011353 66112961534 6981165 1644 4101281 669 821 384 5151458106012041234 436 6391110 9181160 921 9091035 365 1330 878 862 9251127 4831318 8801234101310841274 2721601 922 689 450 793 5991191 1256 69812371453 930 37910451488 9671244 947 4151096125910721004 9971066 824 363 92718181132 990 935 773 521 978 7511267 608 792 6161051 90210261291 840 547 699 5971009 85112911282 986 378 70912151057 380109710471453103112901296 677 122 817 1050 623 9941154 571133511041349 9641265 939 836 489 6721503 870 83212481037 872 120813311196 7321105 46310651059 95913211015 899 991 3611452 485 6791520 863 954 5891434 50813371031 855 1701381 5561001 8381385 8121035 86415511211 469 770 934 560 8921253 9361123 90310531244 774 8121322 674 9911168 858 259 676 8511056 502 10361226 9061243 977 599 9121385 618 967 855 951117911661401 376124615761169 200 799 44811941077 701 7211129 874 8611371 59012781099 896 54610921349 5071187 974 763 805 9051180156011811230 644 941 8861135 544 715 911 959 645 766 950 728 708 1071 826 5871209 995 8691228 9621106 9441094 8241296 263 708 471 4991062 936 727 9591248155812181138 6191074 905 72111221274 623136310851094 2301078 9611065 989 684 979113810141703 28715571323 935 79710221173 590 8351294 93013071159 659 328 1456138310701203140814641193 869 6351227 737 573 892 9771618 919 614 25512681093 1331 945152313961471 7281473 550 848 824 26211491560102416561067 371 965 9231336 99714301145 7931254 7221376 972 717101815031692 676 998 599 5821147 41412431188 12571221 9441417 2091331 909 862 795 367 692 948 812 964 7331010 521 79610851176 1052 835 410 923105213641299 2971390 570 38012131243 993 919 677 761127410101220 855 790 8651178 802 934 4701037 637169611311090 929120410671211 83018331409 983 96110461290 539 4771679 129 923 9431103 642 6431356 8841623159212511448 955 988 1306 428 518 70414021291 693 86714501100 6541118 98117601625 602 289 51012681197 953 971 536 923 8571956 677 939 772 445 9711292149712301114148713171010 6371249 11291597 8131482 297154512901283 902156812631076 9811332114814901758154321791516 1642 74418921105 3591501 3891375 91512371907 89313481110 962 8451095 99810251153 7971408 75910091527 71011641081 861 990 578 62011471301 84511381718 421 9731149 10601798 5861332 7661377 279134710421103 5151364 3) Concordance => 118 series (5-years moving average concordance coeffients) [15JUN98-Muchtar] 2148=N -155=I CONC5 -2(26F3.0)~ 55 80 90 95 85 85 95 95 80 90 83 99 85 95 85 85 85 95 80 55 55 78 79 83 79 92 82 51 73 87 87 40 23 13 2 25 53 66 61 68 38 59 67 71 63 79 91 90 91 90 87 78 85 84 78 74 85 91 89 74 69 38 36 26 8 59 53 39 66 69 84 93 81 81 55 47 86 91 82 54 60 87 92 89 72 78 66 56 55 70 77 66 60 18 16 10 28 41 66 77 66 58 45 49 52 43 59 54 66 55 68 85 92 87 92 82 36 26 40 42 41 73 71 82 92 90 85 94 84 94 87 66 66 51 26 56 41 22 17 35 42 66 53 49 66 56 63 68 74 81 58 66 78 78 87 86 69 87 59 75 72 79 65 71 58 58 76 65 60 51 55 59 65 46 87 86 69 77 83 82 61 62 70 73 86 93 90 93 86 88 86 73 64 25 50 55 34 52 51 84 77 78 77 76 55 67 81 59 31 11 41 40 37 33 40 38 41 41 49 62 61 81 65 68 69 46 54 54 51 49 36 44 47 60 77 73 63 44 58 39 33 48 66 45 55 50 53 40 33 60 75 65 45 44 41 37 61 44 49 76 75 74 67 79 53 71 76 80 68 77 37 25 9 31 69 41 41 40 64 48 43 52 44 54 54 42 75 82 72 60 83 81 66 70 75 65 48 50 38 38 39 33 26 24 17 22 30 31 59 69 44 52 57 56 60 72 91 88 75 81 83 51 43 72 54 79 83 84 58 68 69 51 67 80 92 89 92 89 79 60 59 66 58 67 53 55 49 50 46 75 47 62 73 52 68 68 75 69 82 67 81 69 79 64 78 86 90 79 69 74 62 46 46 45 51 52 53 51 59 34 34 30 40 41 46 54 62 62 73 77 86 77 86 83 79 65 58 28 39 23 53 55 40 36 21 22 8 48 77 78 80 69 42 25 25 41 44 55 70 74 67 76 71 81 83 79 83 75 70 45 64 53 76 69 62 81 81 54 55 60 35 58 73 70 78 56 63 66 72 57 70 80 79 90 90 85 81 71 73 42 40 39 54 32 44 54 55 18 25 16 18 19 15 60 66 71 76 73 75 50 58 34 48 64 57 58 54 55 30 29 27 55 55 60 77 79 54 58 54 20 64 76 78 72 83 77 70 70 63 53 33 30 66 63 77 79 68 42 22 38 39 38 56 60 71 77 67 45 14 10 34 62 68 87 84 82 73 62 25 23 19 26 34 19 37 58 61 65 62 59 63 46 56 50 76 73 71 72 68 39 38 37 35 49 47 55 73 57 81 90 83 61 26 40 59 61 64 51 55 49 58 66 78 80 77 76 85 82 60 76 76 78 84 76 61 58 54 49 15 9 23 17 47 55 64 54 55 20 21 18 19 22 54 73 78 80 77 55 70 70 61 45 47 22 11 21 22 21 17 17 17 50 51 45 25 13 20 9 36 42 39 60 63 60 43 50 25 55 66 60 75 60 60 56 36 45 51 49 57 51 42 57 61 61 58 43 30 33 60 58 32 38 31 36 50 53 70 52 54 60 58 63 59 60 76 76 67 71 54 83 94 94 92 85 75 80 90 84 78 79 77 63 55 41 26 70 71 73 69 74 47 28 56 46 40 29 22 35 45 54 55 79 75 79 80 73 70 64 44 62 62 73 58 40 34 48 58 53 52 48 28 30 55 51 46 49 49 29 27 60 68 72 76 57 53 52 64 34 55 55 52 41 30 43 38 46 55 44 47 50 44 15 51 59 76 79 80 72 67 58 69 70 75 77 74 55 49 52 48 49 60 74 65 66 44 35 48 45 49 49 51 45 40 33 37 28 39 61 77 72 81 71 52 49 30 56 70 59 53 55 52 62 81 74 74 81 83 69 61 62 54 77 74 80 88 94 92 90 83 85 64 24 65 82 84 83 88 72 41 51 76 54 47 43 38 54 54 49 63 66 64 75 72 68 71 76 68 67 73 72 62 80 60 64 65 67 75 85 78 78 74 71 33 31 14 20 29 28 37 49 48 55 64 73 82 66 83 75 67 50 52 50 67 60 73 77 67 65 67 75 80 74 75 66 52 55 62 55 62 51 33 32 28 19 18 43 53 74 64 47 42 59 59 72 66 68 64 61 50 56 49 48 9 23 65 68 68 69 61 37 45 58 59 71 62 83 69 68 59 49 57 38 57 55 71 53 56 52 53 31 29 30 48 49 32 38 31 31 30 62 60 65 53 71 47 46 46 59 45 55 53 47 57 63 84 79 82 64 71 76 73 72 52 44 47 67 71 82 82 87 83 81 54 38 39 56 44 47 29 40 56 40 23 59 68 68 72 62 40 61 69 81 80 85 53 51 78 89 82 80 82 69 38 47 52 37 56 74 82 62 55 39 53 62 65 65 83 76 87 82 70 57 58 52 75 50 55 73 75 51 61 79 80 73 67 73 50 48 48 55 74 79 83 76 64 61 82 82 70 70 63 85 84 87 85 89 87 86 90 83 83 81 87 87 80 76 74 59 49 69 83 81 91 82 79 74 57 52 60 64 75 64 75 77 72 57 52 52 36 54 74 61 75 49 50 32 63 67 60 49 81 64 67 66 67 54 58 79 70 43 75 88 83 73 56 32 63 67 73 70 80 51 61 69 57 56 75 82 76 71 58 47 64 64 78 72 65 64 42 54 74 77 81 80 49 48 44 11 50 73 66 53 45 48 53 53 38 37 24 50 69 71 59 51 61 60 49 55 66 70 78 57 48 11 49 66 62 59 25 40 29 63 84 85 75 49 54 60 56 61 57 62 59 60 30 33 28 36 19 25 29 40 23 18 24 38 61 71 62 83 87 82 85 69 37 34 18 36 31 26 35 47 46 46 24 14 21 33 45 10 8 30 47 51 70 87 87 78 81 87 76 61 81 84 87 89 75 53 67 79 72 45 38 47 51 77 85 79 47 41 22 29 33 71 87 91 90 87 73 61 38 28 21 22 60 54 61 57 62 64 54 70 68 75 65 66 71 66 60 55 70 55 61 62 66 53 58 49 42 60 58 51 51 29 24 38 37 54 60 88 83 78 55 55 19 22 30 37 32 46 49 63 72 90 90 83 84 89 66 62 43 49 45 38 56 68 68 77 65 62 57 59 20 45 57 73 71 69 82 70 78 78 62 82 78 61 57 30 29 35 58 45 66 64 58 25 22 19 26 21 22 50 70 71 83 86 83 82 73 78 76 74 47 35 65 67 59 80 85 77 72 72 50 37 47 29 65 65 55 39 45 42 71 80 58 59 76 83 68 70 53 25 42 40 69 90 75 71 75 64 71 69 71 75 74 72 55 12 38 46 50 45 56 28 43 46 38 54 56 68 64 45 38 44 35 29 26 63 73 85 69 43 77 85 86 91 73 75 82 71 80 83 80 74 74 65 67 70 65 45 34 42 39 37 56 71 71 72 60 57 48 63 65 66 59 78 67 65 49 54 19 20 24 10 46 57 60 70 64 37 34 50 66 75 70 53 80 88 68 78 89 75 64 55 28 33 35 32 26 15 46 58 68 61 52 32 47 51 52 66 68 42 43 45 40 40 45 46 42 32 19 41 43 40 53 57 23 30 59 53 66 68 69 75 72 72 72 85 80 77 76 80 84 82 80 83 70 65 75 75 71 66 57 34 31 61 68 78 82 76 56 67 80 80 78 72 48 44 65 80 75 84 85 85 79 77 89 79 74 60 60 79 71 78 74 77 46 70 66 68 55 57 19 16 18 59 60 79 79 77 46 42 35 37 54 59 69 64 57 59 39 43 63 41 64 56 71 53 42 65 85 63 77 66 70 58 74 65 55 71 71 53 44 51 80 88 79 74 66 53 61 67 53 58 60 27 29 23 55 71 77 77 68 64 44 38 43 32 36 46 37 69 68 60 48 52 15 14 13 47 52 65 71 70 72 58 47 58 62 78 78 76 78 62 75 88 84 78 61 46 52 64 55 69 73 76 66 47 59 54 52 30 15 28 34 41 51 57 37 46 42 61 71 72 64 81 68 73 65 67 35 55 58 70 67 62 55 56 42 21 51 55 59 63 54 79 79 89 85 74 62 60 50 41 32 60 56 68 68 53 68 56 62 77 73 56 72 56 36 34 60 65 54 41 42 46 47 50 57 54 45 32 40 49 54 31 35 38 47 63 65 60 60 17 23 26 20 27 36 70 80 80 79 64 63 65 65 56 78 78 52 35 33 39 50 48 50 52 56 37 35 61 63 61 61 52 24 22 33 28 62 61 69 67 60 58 35 33 45 45 47 48 44 36 29 69 67 65 61 49 16 24 25 25 44 49 63 61 54 54 54 55 60 71 73 56 61 54 39 48 51 66 46 63 65 46 72 51 65 72 84 59 75 72 70 49 41 43 42 36 31 41 40 39 42 35 36 53 60 57 64 59 31 55 49 52 48 55 7 22 56 58 69 69 64 71 65 63 57 55 24 16 33 39 52 65 61 36 51 49 46 54 59 52 47 56 72 71 66 71 59 49 55 53 52 56 48 48 39 43 26 33 60 57 51 68 70 43 42 15 14 14 16 40 48 52 52 35 22 34 63 70 78 62 70 72 58 52 74 71 73 64 46 51 11 14 17 51 58 62 57 31 41 54 66 65 66 55 41 42 50 47 71 74 67 44 45 35 51 45 37 74 62 50 47 56 23 52 74 72 46 24 24 27 52 49 51 55 61 49 71 66 64 54 55 25 26 26 26 9 6 15 40 42 72 43 30 52 47 47 65 60 80 61 52 34 45 36 32 29 32 21 26 19 11 11 27 35 40 38 56 52 53 51 54 34 48 56 35 42 35 35 42 54 51 53 50 60 54 66 66 60 70 52 59 56 63 45 4646. 1998-10-21 10:49:07 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 21 Oct 1998 10:49:07 +0200 from: Marcel Kok subject: Invitation IPCC IA workshop Zimbabwe to: ucc-khal@risoe.dk, ogunlade.davidson@risoe.dk, john.turkson@risoe.dk, Rik.Leemans@rivm.nl, fuj.jaeger@magnet.at, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, Bertjan.Heij@rivm.nl, Bert.Metz@rivm.nl, hvirji@kosmos.agu.org, toth@pik-potsdam.de, ehaites@netcom.ca, rmoss@usgcrp.gov, shukla@iimahd.ernet.in, pzhou@global.bw, dwrs@delphi.com, scohen@sdri.ubc.ca, sivakumar_m@gateway.wmo.ch, afoudab@intnet.bj, prof.magadza@intersol.co.zw, Toures@globeaccess.net, pfrost@zimbix.uz.zw, bscholes@csir.co.za, chandar@noka.ub.bw, totoloo@noka.ub.bw, pagesnbo@form-net.com, o.ndoye@cgnet.com, desanker@virginia.edu, energy@endadak.gn.apc.org, mgaye@ucad.refer.sn, mboko@syfed.bj.refer.org, f.d.yamba@eng.unza.zm, epaops@ghana.com, wrmakundi@lbl.gov, y.vyas@afdb.org, omojola@nigeria.lead.org, adejuwon@nigeria.lead.org, root@malmet.stellar.zw, iucn@info.bw, meteo@dts.mg, ntaganda@rwandatel1.rwanda1.com, bnyenzi@nyenzi.com, smd@zamnet.zm, denmark@samara.co.zw, Anita.Meier@rivm.nl Dear all, Hereby you receive the invitation, programme and registrationform for the IPCC workshop on integrated assessment in Kodoma, 22-25 NOvember 1998. We expect participants to arrive on the 21 st of November. THIS INVITATION WILL OR IS ALREADY FAXED TO YOU BY THE TSU-WG III. START and LEAD WILL ALSO BE CONTACTED BY THE START AND LEAD OFFICES IN WASHINGTON, USA. TO ALL SPEAKERS!!! We like you to give in your draft paper on arrival at the workshop. The papers will be photocopied and distributed during the meeting to all participants. After the workshop proceedings of the workshop will be published. IF YOU DON'T HAVE CONFIRMED YOUR CONTRIBUTION TO THE WORKSHOP YET (THIS IS MENTIONED IN THE PROGRAMME), PLEASE NOTIFY ME ASAP ABOUT THIS. YOUR SINCERELY, Marcel Kok ******************************************************* Date : 20 October 1998 Our reference : 031/98 IPCC RS Your reference : Subject : Confirmation participation IPCC Workshop on Integrated Assessment Kadoma, Zimbabwe from 22-25 November 1998 Fax number : + 31.30.274 4464 Tel : +31.30 274 2639/3026/4281 I am pleased to confirm your participation to the IPCC Workshop on Integrated Assessment in Africa, to be held Kadoma, Zimbabwe from 22-25 November 1998. Please find attached a preliminary programme. Please fill out the attached registration form as soon as possible and send it to mr. Sahanga to allow for arrangements for travel and local accommodation.(fax 263-4-774890/7 or email zimmeteo@weather.utande.co.zw or stn.manager@weather.utande.co.zw), if possible before October 27. Mr. Sahanga will take care of the hotel reservations in the Kadoma Ranch Motel. Participants from developing countries and countries with economies in transition that qualify for travel and subsistence support from the IPCC Trust Fund will receive information about travel arrangements separately from the IPCC Secretariat in Geneva. All other participants are requested to make their own travel arrangements, including visa if appropriate. The Kadoma Hotel and Conference Centre is approximately 140 km from Harare and this distance is too expensive for a taxi. Therefore, the local organisers, notably the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services will kindly provide transport from Harare to the conference facilities. Depending on the number of arrivals, transport would be arranged for one group in the morning and a group in the late afternoon/evening. Final arrangements will be made when mr. Sahanga will have received details of arrivals from all participants. Kadoma is situated along the National Highway from Harare to Bulawayo. Public transport is available and - if needed - arrangements can be made with Met. Officials at the Airport Met.Office. However, to the extent possible arrangements will be made which will take care of the late arrivals. If you have any remaining questions about the local organisation, please contact mr. Sahanga (tel. 263-4-774891/2/6, email zimmeteo@weather.utande.co.zw or stn.manager@weather.utande.co.zw). If you have questions regarding the programme, please contact mr. Marcel Kok (tel. 31-30-2743717, email marcel.kok@rivm.nl). Wishing you a productive workshop, Yours sincerely, Dr. Rob Swart Head, IPCC WG-III Technical Support Unit (See attached file: iaws1910-extern)(See attached file: Regfzim.doc) Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\iaws1910-extern.doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Regfzim.doc" 2610. 1998-10-22 17:47:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 22 Oct 1998 17:47:15 +0100 (BST) from: J Mitchell subject: Re: Thematic Bid - latest draft to ESTB to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk (Keith Briffa) Hi Keith i cant read your attachment John > > > --Boundary_(ID_152w4WHv5enmdnYzd2soTQ) > Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii > Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT > > Dear all > attached is the draft of the bid that Neville is now circulating to > the ESTB for consideration on the 6th I think. Thanks for all help. 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b2plY3RzBwcHBwcgICAgICAgICAgBwdQb3NzaWJsZSBTdGFnZSBUaHJlZSBQcm9qZWN0cwcHBwcH > BwdTdGFnZSBXb3Jrc2hvcHMHBwcoBygHKAcHRGF0YSBNYW5hZ2Vt > > --Boundary_(ID_152w4WHv5enmdnYzd2soTQ) > Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii > Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT > > > -- > Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom > Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > --Boundary_(ID_152w4WHv5enmdnYzd2soTQ)-- > 1231. 1998-10-23 10:19:53 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 23 Oct 1998 10:19:53 +0100 from: Gary Kass subject: adaptation to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Mike, Many thanks for the email. I accept your points, and look forward to receiving more soon. I loved the Nature commentary. Just the sort of pre-publication publicity our report needs... thanks! How's this for a theory as to why there's bneen little concentration on adaptation. While I agree with you that to talk about adaptation may seem defeatist and may be too complex, there may also be a more deep-rooted political agenda in action (call me cynical!!). Some countries (mainly the US, Canada and Australia), as major users and exporters of fossil fuels, are loathed to do anything to reduce emissions at home (hence the Kyoto stitch-up over emssions trading). As such, it is argued that (as you rightly point out) adaptation may be more effective than mitigation (so far!). However, these countries take the argument a bit further to suggest that adaptation will always be the most cost-effective means of dealing with climate change, and thus is an alternative to mitigation, not just the other side of the coin. In this context, presenting a case for work on adaptation should stress that it is in no way an alternative to mitigation - as indeed you do in the last sentence of the commentary. Indeed, in some areas, there is inevitable convergence between strategies for mitigation and adaptation - e.g. energy use in buildings. I hope your article helps start the ball rolling in earnest. I have alerted Ehsan Massod at Nature about POST's forthcoming report at the end of November, so there should be some useful momentum building up. Regards Gary 5246. 1998-10-26 10:52:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Oct 26 10:52:45 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: HEFCE Response to: t.d,davies@uea >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Wed, 21 Oct 1998 10:37:53 +0100 >Date: Wed, 21 Oct 1998 10:36:35 +0100 >From: Ted Nield >To: ddg@aber.ac.uk, d.c.green@anglia.ac.uk, g.k.westbrook@bham.ac.uk, > d.e.g.briggs@bristol.ac.uk, Rickard@cardiff.ac.uk, CRRoberts@chelt.ac.uk, > katkins@csm.ex.ac.uk, P.J.Hill@derby.ac.uk, R.C.Searle@durham.ac.uk, > yardleyb@earth.leeds.ac.uk, keith.onions@earth.ox.ac.uk, > Roger.Scrutton@ed.ac.uk, mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk, c.j.caseldine@exeter.ac.uk, > s.ellis@geo.hull.ac.uk, g.walkden@geol.abdn.ac.uk, C.Gribble@geol.gla.ac.uk, > jonesm@geol.port.ac.uk, m.menzies@gl.rhbnc.ac.uk, pleyshon@glam.ac.uk, > ba12@gre.ac.uk, david.sanderson@ic.ac.uk, gga09@keele.ac.uk, > a.rankin@kingston.ac.uk, r.macdonald@lancaster.ac.uk, ra12@le.ac.uk, > sr11@liv.ac.uk, m.j.hambrey@livjm.ac.uk, geoff.notcutt@luton.ac.uk, > graced@macollamh.ucd.ie, David.Vaughan@man.ac.uk, a.c.aplin@newcastle.ac.uk, > c.j.hawkesworth@open.ac.uk, j1griffiths@plymouth.ac.uk, g.leslie@qub.ac.uk, > a.parker@reading.ac.uk, C.W.Mcleod@Sheffield.ac.uk, djs2@soton.ac.uk, > mjt4@st-andrews.ac.uk, d.e.roberts@staffs.ac.uk, > bob.harrison@sunderland.ac.uk, paallen@tcd.ie, pbruck@ucc.ie, mohr@ucg.ie, > d.price@ucl.ac.uk, h.downes@ucl.ac.uk, K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk >Subject: HEFCE Response > >Dear CHUGD members, > >The following has been sent to me by Helen King of So'ton (see her >introductory letter to me). > >Please let Helen know if you have any comments, on >Helen.L.King@soc.soton.ac.uk by lunchtime tomorrow (22 Oct). > >BWs > >Ted Nield > >text follows: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > >Dear Ted, > >We (Geol. Soc, Malcom Hart, various FDTL projects) have written a draft >response to the HEFCE learning and teaching strategy consultation >document. >We would like to send a copy to CHUGD members for their opinions as >soon as possible (I have to send the final version to HEFCE tomorrow >afternoon!). Malcolm has told me that you have a copy of the CHUGD >email addresses. > >I'd be very grateful if you would forward it to CHUGD members and ask >for any comments to be sent to me before lunchtime tomorrow. > >Sorry for the short timescale and thanks very much for your help, >Best wishes >Helen >Helen.L.King@soc.soton.ac.uk > >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > >EARTH SCIENCES RESPONSE TO HEFCE CONSULTATION 98/40: >LEARNING AND TEACHING: >STRATEGY AND FUNDING PROPOSALS > > >1.0 Introduction > >This response to Consultation 98/40 is made by the National Earth >Sciences >Education Network (NESEN), a national body which speaks on behalf of >the >Earth Sciences HE community. NESEN membership includes all major >current >Earth Sciences learning and teaching initiatives being run in HE >institutions. The core membership of NESEN is: > >the FDTL-funded Earth Sciences Staff Development Project (ESSDP), the >FDTL-funded TRIADS project, the TLTP- funded UK Earth Sciences >Courseware Consortium (UKESCC), the DfEE-funded Earth Sciences >Discipline Network project (ESDN), the Geological Society (discipline >professional body and central to the structure) and the Committee of >Heads of University Geosciences Departments (CHUGD). > >NESEN is currently seeking endorsement from other key national >(Petroleum >Exploration Society of Great Britain, British Geological Survey, Institute of >Petroleum, Palaeontological Association, Mineralogical Society, National >History Museum) and international (National Association of Geoscience >Teachers, International Association for Geoscience Education and >Training) agencies. > >NESEN welcomes the proposed new funding initiatives introduced in the >consultation document 98/40, in particular the proposed rationalisation of >support under a single programme - the TQEF. Our response offers >comments on all aspects of the consultation document but we primarily >focus on the proposals regarding the establishment of subject centres. >To this end our response to paragraph 50d (concerning the subject >strand of the TQEF) is given first and comments on paragraph 50a - c >and 50e-g follow later. > > >2.0 Response to Subject Strand of TQEF Proposals (paragraph 50d) > >2.1 General Comments >We believe that the proposal to develop a UK-wide network of new >integrated subject centres to support learning and teaching is the most >effective mechanism for disseminating and embedding existing >experience and good practice developed during the FDTL and TLTP >programmes and related initiatives funded by other organisations, such >as the DfEE-funded >Discipline Networks. > >Regarding the suggested subject-centres listed in the CTI / TLTSN review >document 98/47 we consider that the inclusion of Geology in a >subject-centre along with Physical Geography and Meteorology is >inappropriate. Our current and past learning and teaching projects have >focused sharply on a discipline-based Earth Sciences approach. We >would prefer an Earth Sciences subject centre incorporating Geology, >Geophysics, Geochemistry and Marine >Sciences, spanning 50 HE institutions throughout the UK which offer >such courses. This suggestion is in line with the subject benchmarking >framework of the QAA (THES: 16/10/98) which places Earth Sciences >and Geography in separate subject units. We believe that single set of >subject units for all teaching and learning issues is the most sensible >way forward and, hence, would advocate separate subject-centres for >Earth Sciences (as defined above) and Geography. > >2.2 Paragraph 50di - current programmes >We welcome the rationalisation of current initiatives and suggest that >partnerships are enabled between successful projects and those >subject areas not already covered by previous phases of FDTL / TLTP >funding. > >2.3 Paragraph 50dii - reward successful project completion >We believe that the reward of successful projects is imperative. The >experience and expertise developed is most effectively used if funding >opportunities are provided for full dissemination and implementation of the >learning outcomes and recommendations of previous projects. > >2.4 Paragraph 50diii - invest in a programme >We agree that investing in quality improvement is required but suggest >that networks with a proven track record should be at the core of this >process in order to ensure maximum benefit from partnerships between >'best practice' and 'weaker' subject providers. > >2.5 Paragraph 50div - subject-centres >We welcome and support the proposal to develop a UK-wide programme >of new integrated subject centres to support learning and teaching. We, >in the >Earth Sciences, have considerable expertise and experience in >developing and successfully completing learning and teaching projects, >as witnessed by the membership list in section 1.0. Staff loyalties >dominantly lie with their discipline and we urge the funding councils to >encourage and enhance good practice in learning and teaching by >building on this fact. > >We strongly recommend that the physical structure of the >subject-centres should be in the form of co-ordinated networks, with a >membership comprising key projects having a proven track record of >delivering in learning and teaching. We suggest that, where appropriate >(e.g. in the Earth Sciences), the relevant professional body (in this >example, the Geological Society) could co-ordinate the network to draw >on existing membership networks and to avoid the 'not developed here' >syndrome. The network director need not necessarily be physically >based at the professional body but, preferably at an HEI. We strongly >support a network approach in preference to a single subject centre. > >As an example of how such a network might be realised we outline >how, in the >Earth Sciences, we can provide an effective service by building on >current initiatives, contacts and experience. All 5 points (a-e) in >paragraph 33 of the consultation document 98_40 are well covered by >our proposed structure given that the individual strands of expertise >provided by the NESEN core membership would be responsible for >promoting / disseminating good practice and sharing experiences; >disseminating outcomes of other initiatives; reviewing new materials and >initiatives in a subject context. This would be effected through the >NESEN, under the co-ordination of the national director. > >We have subject expertise in the key areas of: staff development >(ESSDP), student development (personal and career development - 'key >skills': ESDN)), computers and IT (UKESCC), continued professional >development (CPD - >Geological Society, ESSDP) and assessment (TRIADS). These initiatives >contribute to the development of individuals and the curriculum. > >These current Earth Sciences projects (funded under the FDTL and DfEE >programmes) have successfully collaborated for two years, sharing >experience and expertise in order to disseminate good practice to the >Earth Sciences academic community. The NESEN will be the primary >vehicle in the continuation strategy of these projects. This provides >evidence of our proven track record in, and commitment to, delivering a >truly national discipline-based learning and teaching strategy. > > >3.0 Response to Other Proposals (paragraphs 50a-c and 50e-g) > >3.1 Paragraph 50a - proposed strategic purposes >We welcome the strategic purposes and recognise their potential for >raising the status of learning and teaching in HE. However, we wish to >emphasise that, if the profile of learning and teaching in HEIs is to be >raised to that of research, the funding should be appropriately organised. >Current short-term programmes (e.g. FDTL, TLTP) have initiated >invaluable learning and teaching innovations but without long-term >funding options these are difficult to fully implement and adequately >sustain. We would like to see the funding councils taking a long-term >view of funding for learning and teaching, similar to that adopted by >research councils. > >Encouragement and reward. The reward to individuals for high quality >learning and teaching, as currently obtained for excellence in research, >should be implemented as a priority. Promotion on the basis of pedagogic >achievement will stimulate staff to engage in learning and teaching >initiatives and encourage more rapid development of both staff and >initiatives. > >Co-ordination and collaboration. We see co-ordination and collaboration >of existing learning and teaching initiatives and agencies as an essential >ingredient to the promotion and development of high quality learning and >teaching. Our national learning and teaching profile, in the Earth >Sciences, is enhanced by collaboration with organisations such as the >Geological >Society and CHUGD. Additionally, we also recognise the value of >cross-discipline interaction for sharing and enhancing good practice, as >witnessed by our connections with existing projects and networks in >other subject areas (e.g. Geography Discipline Network). > >Disseminating and embedding good practice. Many outcomes of current >Earth >Sciences learning and teaching projects are ripe for dissemination and >embedding. The implementation of new subject-specific networks would >be an ideal and timely vehicle for introducing these on a national basis. >UK HEIs are beginning to play an important role in the high profile area of >international educational development in Earth Sciences. We have >several links with international agencies (e.g. the International >Association for >Geoscience Education and Training - IAGET and the USA -based National >Association of Geoscience Teachers - NAGT) and we also collaborate >on learning and teaching matters with individual academics in Europe, the >USA, >Australia and South Africa. We intend to build on this international >network to enhance the global competitiveness of Earth Sciences >learning and teaching in the UK and would welcome the potential funding >council support for such activities. > >Research and innovation. The recognition of the need to identify areas >for further investment in research and development is welcomed and we >would look to assist the process by widely disseminating our >experiences. > >Capacity for change. We support proposals to promote a culture of >acceptance of new initiatives at a senior management level within >institutions. We recognise the crucial importance of this approach in >breaking down current barriers to change. > >3.2 Paragraph 50b - bidding mechanism >We agree that an open tendering mechanism is the fairest way of >allocating funding with the proviso that there is adequate support and >guidance for bidders. We also recognise that research is not only >supported by bidding for grants but also by the automatic reward / >penalty for good / poor performance in the RAE. We seek confirmation >from the funding councils as to whether they envisage an allocation of >learning and teaching funding along similar lines. > >3.3 Paragraph 50c - additional student numbers >>From experience in our own subject area, we note that additional student >numbers are not a benefit unless the resources they bring actually reach >the disciplines that earn them. > >3.4 Paragraph 50e - invitations to institutions to bid for funding >We welcome the proposal for making awards to individual academics to >enhance learning and teaching. As indicated in our response to 50a >above, individual incentives are crucial to engage staff and provide them >with increased credibility for their pedagogic development work and we >believe this should be a major funding priority. However, we seek >clarification of the phrasing of this proposal. Will institutions be invited to >bid on behalf of individuals? or will individuals be able to bid, with the >prior approval and support of their institutions, directly to the funding >councils? We believe that the latter approach (as used in bidding for >FDTL funding) is preferable. > >3.5 Paragraph 50f - areas for innovation and development >We believe that future investment should be focused on staff, student >and curriculum development. However, we would like to emphasise that >disciplines, and HE in general, would benefit from funding that focuses >on holistic programmes rather than purely on enhancing individual >strands. > >3.6 Paragraph 50g - the TQEF >Funding is essential for the advancement and global competitiveness of >learning and teaching in the UK. We agree that the proposed TQEF is the >best model - a single funding mechanism will be simpler for all involved. >We envisage the purpose of the fund will be to improve quality in learning >and teaching and its nature will be to promote discipline-based >centres/networks with close links to the Institute for Learning and >Teaching. > >Again, we would like to emphasise the need for a long-term, or rolling, >programme in preference to another one-off, short-lived 'radical new >initiative'. We would encourage, and appreciate, funding councils to work >on academics' behalf to educate government ministers on the crucial >importance of these funding proposals for the future of learning and >teaching in HE. > > > > >Collated by Dr Helen King (ESSDP) for NESEN >20/10/98 12:16 > > > 2900. 1998-10-27 12:55:15 ______________________________________________________ cc: s.boland@uea date: Tue Oct 27 12:55:15 1998 from: Keith Briffa subject: Vienna and Norwich to: csander@aixh0401.holz.uni-hamburg.de, hleusch@gwdg.de, K.Briffa@UEA.AC.UK, niels.bonde@natmus.dk, j.hillam@sheffield.ac.uk, thomas.bartolin@natmus.dk, PADRUOT.NOGLER@WSL.CH, c.m.groves@sheffield.ac.uk, Matti.Eronen@Helsinki.fi, Wibjorn.Karlen@natgeo.su.se, grudd@natgeo.su.se, eckstein@aixh0401.holz.uni-hamburg.de,zetter@cc.joensuu.fi , i.tyers@sheffield.ac.uk, m.salmon@UEA.AC.UK, marco@pkdb.botanik.uni-hohenheim.de, lindholm@joyl.joensuu.fi, mauri.timonen@roi.metla.fi, Esther.Jansma@archis.nl, olafur.eggertsson@geol.lu.se, hasse@natgeo.su.se, bjorne@natgeo.su.se, Maarit.Kalela-Brundin@svek.slu.se, j.spain@qub.ac.uk, m.baillie@qub.ac.uk, TWAZNY@plearn.edu.pl Hi everyone I thought I'd just give a brief report of the Vienna meeting that I attended last week. It turned out that all climate-related projects funded under Framework 4 were represented. Interestingly, some have only just started and have a couple of years to run. The large majority are now winding up . In my opinion, the week went pretty well for us in as much as my presentation seemed well received. I have to say a special thankyou here to Marco and Rashit and Eugene, who came up with some nice results and plots at short notice. I did my best to give a fair display of the different aspects of our project, so the network and long chronology development and the oak work all got equal time . I heard, indirectly ,that Troen thought our results and my talk(!) were very good. However , I think we have a long way to go to show added value from the intergration of the different aspects of the work , which must be clear in our Holocene special issue. There was a discussion of the likely format of the Framework 5 call, but it is clear that the precise details of this call are not in place yet. I was hoping that I might be invited to be one of the experts asked to put this together but it looks like this is not to be. One thing is clear. There will be a climate change section but this will be incorporated in a wider area of projects that come under a general heading of Ecosystem preservation / biodiversity! I did see seasonal/annual/decadal variabilty , in the past and future, specifically mentioned and my feeling is that the general priorities of the CLIVAR Implementation Plan will figure strongly in their thinking. I also got the strong message that large interlinked projects ( how large I don't yet know) are very much back in fashion. I suspect this will mean having to link with other discilpines - say within an 'Arctic' or 'western European' context. The worry is that the whole emphasis has now swung to 'problem solving' and integated assessment of the consequences of change rather than just establishing the details of change per se. The ministers are still arguing about the budget so that the best guess regarding the next call is probably still around March 1999. There is always the worry , however, that they will suddenly jump at vey short notice to an earlier, say January, call. The question of data availability and release , and large scale data management were much discussed and we must confirm our timetable for the release and format of our data during the Norwich meeting. I have now to write the short paper for the proceedings of this meetin and am still waiting on most of your very brief ideas of what are the MOST important points to stress in this regarding the different aspects of the work. At this moment I expect Mike Baillie John Spain Hakan Grudd Bjorn Gunnarson Hans Linderholm Matti Eronen Marcus Linderholm Mauri Timonen Pentti Zetterberg Maarit Brundin Olafur Eggertsson Niels Bonde Thomas Bartholin Hubert Leuschner Along with me and a few hangers on from here that will mean only about 15 or 16 people taking part in the meeting. I have had no word from Ian and the other Sheffield Mafia, nothing from Thomas Wazny. I have no funds to invite our Russian colleagues and I know that Esther. Wibjorn and Fritz can not make it. I am now confirming the room bookings for the 4 nights , Wednesday 11th through Saturday 14th inclusive for all those people listed above. If this is wrong , please let me know immediately if this is wrong. Thanks Keith 4957. 1998-10-28 08:19:58 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 28 Oct 1998 08:19:58 -0500 from: robert swart subject: storylines to: sres team Dear Naki, Laurie and other SRES team members, Reading the last version of Laurie's storylines, I am feeling comfortable enough to put them on the website and have them as the basis of the actual SRES report, with the notable exception of B2, which has been rewritten considerably, apparently to make the story less middle-of-the-road. It now reads sometimes almost as utopian as A1 and B1 were claimed to be by some commentators, leaving only A2 as a relatively unattractive world. In my view, some of the negative aspects of B2 (low incomes, unsuccessful management of global problems!) may be mentioned more strongly, while positive aspects can be described more neutral. I do realize that the political context of IPCC seems to force us to make the storylines flatter than some authors would like to see, but a more balanced language may also reconcile differing views within the team itself. * general: spelling has to be checked (developping, developped, ressources, abandonned) * 4th line: country to country rather than countries to countries * line 6: replace "abandoned" by " loosing momentum" (no intentional development!) * line 8: replace "agressive" by "local and regional" to avoid conflict with the first paragraph * lines 11-12: delete; monitoring of economic development/pollution levels does not seem a key issue to me, while " achieving an optimum welfare level" is an unnecessary value judgement. * lines 13-14: why would international trade in this scenario be limited to commodities? I would just say that the increase in global trade slows down. * line 19: is "convergence of economic growth" an evident term? Are decreasing income differences between regions typical for B2? According to the table (and my understanding) international income inequalities only decrease slowly or not at all as compared to A1/B1. * line 25: replace "holistically" by "integrated" * last line: a reduction of emissions at all scales is incorrect: CO2 emissions are increasing in this scenario, mention how much as in the other cases. I hope that before the end of this week the revised storylines can be put on the web, and I would like to call upon the small SRES editorial board (Shukla, Kram, Naki and myself) to check the website next week and decide on another round of advertising, noting that a.o. based on responses the contents have been upgraded and that input is still needed to help the team with the drafting of its report. Last time, the website hits were highest just after such advertising. Finally, I would like to call on all team members to collect literature references to (elements of) storylines that can be used to found the narratives in the literature in the SRES report. I volunteer to keep a file on these references for future use, so please send me copies of articles or - in case of reports, books - summaries and full reference information. If Naki agrees, I can also send the last version of the storylines to Jerome Glenn of the Millennium Project, who is keeping a bibliography of published futures/scenarios and who may helpin this respect. Regards, Rob Swart 1614. 1998-10-30 14:05:02 ______________________________________________________ cc: slocke@ucsusa.org date: Fri, 30 Oct 1998 14:05:02 -0500 from: Molly_Smith@edf.org subject: Re: Follow-up to conversation with Adam Markham to: Mike Hulme From: Molly Smith@EDF on 10/30/98 02:05 PM Subject: Re: Follow-up to conversation with Adam Markham Thanks! I'll add the second two spots to our list, and we'll re-think our precipitation ideas. There is a chance that someone else from our group, Sharon Locke, may contact you to further discuss precipitation and droughts. I will also check out the Scientific American article you suggest. Molly From: Mike Hulme on 10/30/98 05:38 PM GMT To: Molly Smith cc: Subject: Re: Follow-up to conversation with Adam Markham Molly, To take your three points: 1. Southern African rainfall. Avoid this one - and indeed avoid pretty much all climate indicators related to precipitation. The large natural variability of precip. makes it very hard for a human-induced climate change trend to be picked up. 2. The CET daily temperature series are fine. Cold days are with mean temperature (i.e., average of day and night) below zero Celsius and hot days are with Tmean above 20degC. The records are homogenous to 1772. 1995 had the most hot days with 26 (1961-90 average is only about 4). 3. Your wording is accurate although I would replace 'JFM' with 'January to March' And if you're looking for more climate indicators try the following article in Scientific American: Karl,T.R., Nicholls,N. and Gregory,J. (1997) The coming climate Scientific American, May, 54-59. Regards, Mike At 14:10 27/10/98 -0500, you wrote: > >From: Molly Smith@EDF on 10/27/98 02:10 PM > >Subject: Follow-up to conversation with Adam Markham > >Hello: > >I am a researcher at the Environmental Defense Fund who is working on a >project with Adam Markham and others to compile a list of areas around the >world where there is evidence that global climate change is already >starting to occur. I believe Adam spoke to you not too long ago about this >project and that he gathered from you a list of additional trends that >could be used. I am writing to follow-up on that conversation and get a >few more details on the information you gave Adam. To summarize the >intentions of our project -- we woud like to create a world map that points >out the locations of these trends and events that give evidence in support >of the claim that climate change is already beginning to occur. Each site >would be accompanied by a 1-2 sentence blurb that summarizes the >trend/event and puts it in context. In order to include a point on our >map, it must be verified by a reliable source (i.e. peer-reviewed article >or expert on the matter), and it must be heavily climate influenced. If >the trend is only slightly due to climate and primarily due to outside >factors (i.e. Sea level rise in New Orleans which is mainly due to geologic >subsidence), we will not include the site, or possibly will include it with >an explanation of the non-climate factors(s). > >The first question I have is in regards to your information about southern >Africa and its recent period of rainfall deficeit. I read the Climatic >Change and Southern Africa report you wrote for WWF and am not sure what >your opinion is on whether this two-decade dry period is significant enough >to attribute it to a longer trend. I would also like your opinion on how >much of that drying trend can be blamed on climatic changes that have >already begun to occur. Does the occurrence of a wet year in 1995/96 >lessen the claim that the drier period was due to a changing climate? What >sort of blurb would be accurate for our pruposes? > >Another trend that I have questions about is the increase in hot days and >decrease in cold days in central England since 1772. The blurb I have is >as follows: > >"Central England ? RISING TEMPERATURES: The number of cold days per year >have declined in central England since 1772, while the number of hot days >per year have increased over that same period. Cold days have declined >from 15 to 20 days per year at the beginning of the record down to 10 days >per year in this century. The number of hot days have increased at a >slightly lower rate with the last decade averaging nearly 8 hot days per >year, the highest number on record (Mike Hulme, pers. comm.)" > >However, what temperatures define "cold" and "hot"? Is the information >quoted properly in this blurb? Do all of the records go back to 1772? >What year had the most # of hot days ever? > >The last trend I merely would like you to confirm the wording and check the >accuracy: > >"Southern England ? EARLIER SPRING: Oak trees (Quercus robur) have been >leafing earlier and earlier over the past 41 years in response to >increasing JFM temperatures at a rate of 5 to 6 days per 1C of warming. >The four earliest leafing dates in the last 41 years have all occurred in >the last decade (Mike Hulme, pers. comm.)" > >I appreciate your assistance on these questions and thank you in advance >for your time. We are trying to gather all of the information for our map >by the end of the month and therefore would appreciate a response as soon >as you get the chance. If you have any additional suggestions or ideas, >please feel free to pass those along as well. > >Thank you again for your help! > >Molly Smith >========================== >Environmental Defense Fund >257 Park Avenue South >New York, NY 10010 USA >tel: (212) 505-2100 >fax: (212) 505-2375 >e-mail: molly_smith@edf.org > > > 5154. 1998-11-02 14:21:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 14:21:25 -0500 from: Laura Lee Dooley subject: WRI Events at the UNFCCC COP4 to: kimo@iisd.org, climate-l@MBnet.MB.CA UPCOMING EVENTS AT THE UNFCCC COP4 SPONSORED BY WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE WRI experts and partners will be hosting the following workshops at the UNFCCC COP4 in Buenos Aires. Further information about these events and related postings can be found on the WRI website at: http://www.wri.org/wri/cpi/cop4.html -------------------------------------------------------------- PANEL DISCUSSION: *Forests, Land-Use, and Carbon: A Dialogue on the Issues* TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 1998 (1:00-3:00 p.m.) ROOM TO BE ANNOUNCED Co-hosted by World Resources Institute with World Bank and The Nature Conservancy The World Bank, in collaboration with the World Resources Institute and the Nature Conservancy, is sponsoring a systematic discussion of the technical issues related to implementing transferable emissions reductions from forest and land use change projects. Will these projects have beneficial impacts? Is it possible to assure that emissions reductions are genuine? Issues discussed will include permanence, determination of the reference case, measurement, leakage, insurance mechanisms, and local social and environmental impacts. Representatives from forest carbon projects in Belize and Bolivia will discuss how they have faced these challenges. -------------------------------------------------------------- PRESS CONFERENCE: *Climate and Forests: Why Ignore 30% of the Problem?* FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 1998 (11:00 a.m. - 1:00 p.m.) PRESS BRIEFING ROOM The 1997 Kyoto Protocol is a key step towards the mitigation of climate change -- it was the first international agreement to place legally binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions from developed countriies. Although the Protocol significantly advances the cause of climate protection, it leaves many questions unanswered, including the role of forests and land-use change in meeting obligations to slow global warming. Over the past 150 years, deforestation has contributed an estimated 30 percent of the atmospheric build-up of CO2. It is also a significant driving force behind the loss of genes, species, and critical ecosystem services. However, in the international policy arena, biodiversity loss and climate change have often moved in wholly unconnected domains. Available at the briefing will be copies of three new reports that examine the role of forests and land-use change as a contribution to greenhouse gas build-up in the atmosphere as well as the role of forests in mitigating emissions. -------------------------------------------------------------- PANEL PRESENTATION: *Forests, Climate, and the Kyoto Protocol: Cross-Cutting Issues* SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 1998 (10:00-11:30 a.m.) Organized by Union of Concerned Scientists and TATA Energy Research Institute and others In December 1997, Parties to the UNFCCC negotiated the Kyoto Protocol, which recognized a limited set of forest activities -- afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation -- that could be used by industrialized countries to meet their legally binnding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. There are no clear definitions for these terms, leading to concerns that countries may adopt a narrow focus toward forests and other natural ecosystems valuing them only for their carbon sequestration benefits. The Climate and Forests session will examine this possibility. Paige Brown, Research Analyst at the World Resources Institute, will present findings from *Climate, Biodiversity, and Forests: Issues and Opportunities Emerging from the Kyoto Protocol*, which examines why the role of forests and land-use change under the Kyoto Protocol remains controversial. The report focuses on the need for strong international commitments and concerted action. -------------------------------------------------------------- PANEL PRESENTATION: *Financing Sustainable Development via the CDM: Case Studies for Brazil, China and India* SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 1998 (4:30-6:30 p.m.) Hosted by World Resources Institute As much as $15 billion a year could flow to developing countries under the Clean Development Mechanism. While intended for carbon abatement projects, many of these investments will generate important co-benefits. These include environmental benefits such as cleaner air and water, reduced deforestation, soil conservation, and biodiversity protection; and social benefits such as rural development and poverty alleviation. In many cases, these benefits are goals that developing countries have formally identified as development priorities. Experts in Brazil, China and India have investigated potential CDM options within their own countries and assessed the type and magnitude of co-benefits associated with these projects. In all three countries, potential CDM projects promise not only to abate carbon but also to promote key sustainable development objectives. Authors will present findings from this ongoing collaborative exercise. PRESENTERS Chair: Tony La Vińa, World Resources Institute Ronaldo Seroa da Motta (Brazil), Instituto do Pesquisas Economica Aplicada Zou Ji (China), Institute of Environmental Economics, Renmin University Sujata Gupta (India), Tata Energy Research Institute Duncan Austin (United States), World Resources Institute -------------------------------------------------------------- PANEL BRIEFING: *Safe Climate, Sound Business* MONDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 1998 (9:30 - 10:30 a.m.) Alvear Palace Hotel, Gobernador Room, Avenida Alvear 1981 (1129), Tel: 808-2100 Co-hosted by World Resources Institute with General Motors, British Petroleum, and Monsanto Corporation Precautionary action is needed now to address the climate challenge. Moreover, with the right policy environment, there will be major business opportunities in reducing climate change risks for proactive business leaders. These are two of the key conclusions from a new, collaborative report -- Building A Safe Climate, Sound Business Future -- by British Petroleum, General Motors, Monsanto, and the World Resources IInstitute. For more than 18 months, the partners evaluated scenarios for meeting world energy demand, explored new technologies and potential business opportunities, and identified strategies that build a supportive policy environment that would enable substantial contributions from the business community. As a result of this collaboration, the group developed recommendations for governments and businesses, as well as an *Action Agenda* to implement the business recommendations for their own organizations. ======================================= World Resources Institute 1709 New York Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20006 202/638-6300; fax: 202/638-0036 http://www.wri.org/wri/ 5340. 1998-11-03 11:46:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 03 Nov 98 11:46:38 -0500 from: James Sniffen subject: UNEP Calls for Continued Collaboration at COP4 to: climate-l UNEP PRESS RELEASE CONTINUED COLLABORATION REQUIRED TO ENSURE RESULTS FROM BUENOS AIRES CLIMATE TALKS BUENOS AIRES, 2 November 1998 - On the opening day of the Climate Change Treaty talks here in Buenos Aires, the Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Klaus Toepfer, called for effective cooperation and collaboration among all players, in order to "repair the environment and forestall a climate catastrophe". Outlining UNEP's expectations for the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-4) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), meeting here from 2 to 13 November, Mr. Toepfer emphasized the importance of building on the good preparations undertaken by UNEP and others for the Conference. "Such work is a pre-condition for action and will, I hope, enable Governments to agree on a clear Plan of Action and timetable, to solve the many outstanding substantial and methodological problems faced by both developed and developing countries alike", he said. Mr. Toepfer underlined that the "mechanisms" agreed to in Kyoto at the last meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-3) cannot be a substitute for domestic action by industrialized countries. "The bottom line is that developed countries must start cutting their emissions of greenhouse gases. They should adopt win-win strategies, those that reduce emissions in ways that also help the economy. All other action should be supplemental to this effort", he said. Last year in Kyoto, Japan, Governments agreed on a Protocol to the UNFCCC. By adopting the Kyoto Protocol, Annex 1 countries to the UNFCCC (developed countries) signed up to the first ever legally binding targets for cutting the production of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change. Now, one year on, the task in Buenos Aires is to establish the rules of the game - the practical steps - for reaching those Kyoto Protocol targets. "UNEP will continue to play a leading, integrated role in this process", said Mr. Toepfer. "In collaboration with others, UNEP is contributing to the development of the mechanisms established under the Kyoto Protocol, just as it did in establishing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with the World Meteorological Organization." UNEP is specifically responding to the question of the impact of climate change. In this regard, the Global Environment Facility's Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) - for which UNEP provides the secretariat - is convening a workshop today at COP-4. "Climate Change Impact, Assessment and Responses" is being held in collaboration with UNEP, IPCC and the Convention on Climate Change's Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). "The important work we are doing on impact, mitigation, adaptation and assessment will be closely integrated into the work of the IPCC's Working Group II", said Mr. Toepfer. "A further priority for UNEP", Mr. Toepfer continued, "is to look at the sustainable development component - the social, economic and environmental implications - of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and ensure developing countries have access to the necessary information about it. It is fundamental that we help fully integrate all countries into the climate change debate and act as a forum for open, informed dialogue", he said. To this end, UNEP hosted a special meeting of African environment ministers and experts in Nairobi last month where COP-4 topped the agenda. The meeting, attended by 26 ministers, was designed to provide them with an opportunity to learn more about, and discuss, the implications for Africa of important environment agreements (on climate change, the ozone layer, biodiversity and desertification), and the strong inter-linkages between them. There are strong scientific relationships between the various environmental conventions and UNEP believes a strong initiative to reinforce inter-linkages between environmental issues and human needs can offer new and better opportunities to devise effective policies that meet both local and global needs. On 12 November in Buenos Aires, UNEP and The World Bank will launch a new "Inter-linkages Assessment Report." (Media are invited.) The Nairobi ministerial meeting allowed for African countries to agree on a Common Position with regard to the CDM, which they agreed should be a high priority for Africa. UNEP will continue to actively facilitate similar dialogue amongst developing countries and, at the request of African Governments, play a more active role in CDM-related activities. The Kyoto Protocol's mechanisms may be one way forward, especially with regard to the CDM and transfer of environment friendly technology to developing countries, but they are not, on their own, a solution to the climate change problem. "From Buenos Aires we need a clear signal that all involved with the issue mean business", said Mr. Toepfer. "Action from Governments will help convince producers, consumers, communities and individuals to adjust their activities in ways that limit emissions, as the Convention and its Kyoto Protocol will only succeed if they are widely supported by the public and by key constituencies and interest groups", he said. For more information or to arrange interviews, please contact Robert Bisset, UNEP Press Officer on tel/fax: (54-1)-314 1400, mobile: 15-4166147, E-mail: rbisset@rocketmail.com UNEP News Release 1998/COP4/1 3995. 1998-11-04 11:54:49 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Nov 4 11:54:49 1998 from: Keith Briffa to: i.harris@uea >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 03:38:46 +0100 >Original-Received: by > kintra.krasnoyarsk.su (/\oo/\ Smail3.1.29.1 #29.2) > with Taylor UUCP v1.06 Sat, 17 Oct 98 10:24 KRSK >PP-warning: Illegal Received field on preceding line >To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk >Organization: Institute of Forest >From: Eugene Vaganov >Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:14:46 +0400 (MSD) >From: From >Lines: 737 > >11).rwm >all radius cross-dated measurements = 5 trees > 474=N 0=I CHA001A -2(26F3.0)~ > 35 56 14 17 5 5 14 22 28 18 15 14 15 19 17 11 9 17 7 22 11 19 21 37 28 12 > 16 16 14 13 11 17 18 9 5 8 9 5 9 8 8 11 16 12 23 18 18 39 42 26 40 35 > 25 21 20 21 21 24 25 24 44 33 53 74 32 51 94 52 66 44 57 39 27 41 52 53 51 47 > 48 31 27 22 29 32 36 55 39 28 33 22 21 17 40 29 52 8 6 14 7 61 11 60 36 19 > 48 54 60 24 54 64 58 61 22 6 14 40 70 55 77 45 40 26 52 70 28 43 30 32 47 43 > 44 72 22 32 44 45 65 49 57 46 62 64 52103 41 7 32109 73 47 15 13 53 59 77 96 >108 80 98 64 46 78 47 99105112 88 73 91 82 67112 75 76 90 86 60120 81109 76 31 > 73 69 31 69 63129117 30 19 68 75 87 68 59 30 46117 54 59 26 5 26 32 40 28 36 > 49 74 85108109 83 56 55 49 47 67 82 67 36 93 74 79 51 41 33 18 65 67 79 42 35 > 49 32 50 54 28 22 54 47120 51 64 48 56 51 56 49 40 22 48 34 42 47 42 54 60 55 > 31 71 69 73 58 57 41 84 71 65 88 82114108166115112 90151138101135103 95 81121 >103 73 56 58 40 33 68 76 38 49 30 43 44 62 36 31 25 44 28 57 35 35 42 56 56 29 > 58 57 88 63 51 88 43 53 42 43 44 60 38 40 49 27 28 43 52 64 49 71 47 80 52 42 > 74 66 62 42 61 53 64 38 74 56 51 87 29 85 63 65 45 34 58 36 57 52 33 58 67 91 > 69 92 56102 76 21 54 53 58 66 39 43 50 55 87 54 68 85 30 41 47 54 52 46 33 31 > 32 56 26 30 32 50 39 64 43 51 22 53 18 40 26 18 12 19 7 22 32 27 47 42 47 55 > 50 42 45 48 57 35 36 46 32 33 23 21 39 28 46 45 36 51 18 19 25 35 36 16 28 21 > 42 53 39 68 47 65 61 33 46 58 47 22 26 20 45 35 31 39 12 20 28 7 9 11 16 26 > 7 20 17 24 14 12 > 321=N 0=I CHA001B -2(26F3.0)~ > 27 31 42 27 27 4 4 13 21 24 17 16 12 16 16 18 15 11 16 5 24 9 16 12 33 27 > 12 8 10 14 12 7 11 16 10 5 7 7 7 4 3 4 7 14 10 13 16 17 24 27 9 30 > 21 29 14 16 18 23 19 26 21 25 24 24 26 16 22 41 20 26 12 32 21 12 32 35 27 31 > 25 21 23 21 20 26 29 19 39 28 19 6 7 8 10 15 17 23 5 2 18 6 25 5 32 27 > 8 33 34 36 16 31 32 48 35 18 2 11 49 44 24 33 26 30 19 14 21 13 20 17 22 40 > 27 26 26 8 18 15 22 27 14 22 26 28 30 17 40 20 2 13 56 54 21 15 20 33 32 38 > 43 20 17 21 14 22 36 20 35 40 42 34 29 39 25 34 42 36 33 44 40 29 44 39 47 51 > 28 45 36 19 31 30 54 65 8 15 33 34 31 51 27 19 24 37 21 41 2 8 19 14 22 20 > 24 32 52 51 83 94 57 26 28 15 24 25 39 35 21 36 28 53 45 25 20 10 39 28 41 36 > 29 32 27 30 46 27 11 44 54 61 22 35 25 21 23 21 15 17 12 22 24 27 42 45 58 38 > 39 11 41 31 40 27 17 23 37 20 16 41 39 38 28 64 69 79 40 61 62 34 45 35 34 37 > 50 44 34 22 31 26 11 32 34 21 26 16 26 26 40 29 27 9 30 25 33 21 15 18 28 22 > 8 39 18 26 24 18 30 8 13 > 475=N 0=I CHA001C -2(26F3.0)~ > 17 14 45 13 10 4 5 17 22 21 13 12 10 17 18 15 10 11 14 7 22 8 23 15 35 25 > 20 11 18 16 14 9 14 18 9 6 8 9 9 11 11 5 4 11 22 30 20 23 25 37 21 29 > 26 25 18 22 20 22 25 27 23 43 35 47 58 34 51 98 48 60 39 54 42 28 42 58 49 47 > 44 49 36 36 25 33 50 44 55 47 32 15 33 21 10 28 22 25 5 5 19 8 26 20 38 36 > 16 38 47 54 24 56 65 67 57 30 6 11106150 68 89 57 47 42 48 70 28 46 27 32 39 > 41 32 66 16 41 33 50 77 49 52 46 56 61 47105 44 10 28108 52 54 8 13 36 62106 >143103 78 87 67 49 77 52 91 83 84 77 82 91 76 71 86 62 68 91 85 60101 66 86 57 > 30 68 66 32 63 60123120 34 23 61 75 81 69 66 32 46119 53 65 24 2 33 30 39 30 > 27 42 79 86110120102 65 65 54 52 56 82 72 53 96 74 86 52 36 35 15 71 62 82 50 > 39 48 39 52 68 37 36 95 90132 57 72 56 69 53 59 43 42 31 51 39 50 52 39 61 60 > 55 35 80 76 70 60 50 45 81 73 63 98 91116111204126133102149123 80116 83 92 69 >100 97 64 55 47 40 25 61 64 32 36 28 30 42 56 37 27 23 47 29 44 46 31 43 44 48 > 29 60 39 67 56 49 68 30 39 39 42 36 66 51 54 46 45 36 61 38 89 67 76 45 62 61 > 45 62 49 60 35 46 37 62 43 59 57 64 84 34 98 68 66 51 43 60 45 52 46 30 42 53 > 91 52 83 40 95 88 33 55 81 86 73 47 54 58 46 82 50 64 86 43 59 61 60 41 50 39 > 47 37 53 25 20 24 40 35 57 39 53 21 23 18 53 32 17 11 23 10 25 51 43 49 41 48 > 49 42 37 47 51 53 38 38 48 29 33 28 15 45 30 47 44 41 56 26 25 24 40 20 22 30 > 28 42 81 71 89 53 68 64 48 43 67 52 20 39 29 43 37 29 40 12 22 28 5 13 14 12 > 21 11 15 17 29 12 14 > 48=N 0=I CHA001D -2(26F3.0)~ > 34 52 10 15 19 16 26 12 70 63 69 33 19 46 24 14 25 43 22 36 27 14 24 20 28 21 > 34 38 16 30 36 29 16 32 47 38 28 38 24 18 11 24 22 16 17 12 11 35 > 201=N 0=I CHA001E -2(26F3.0)~ > 29 21 16 24 33 37 10 11 13 14 11 6 8 6 10 4 3 6 10 19 15 18 6 8 10 13 > 13 22 16 15 14 13 3 5 6 10 25 23 40 15 19 14 6 17 24 17 26 23 15 11 16 10 > 6 9 11 2 13 3 10 15 29 27 13 8 12 11 15 10 18 16 8 4 9 6 13 9 7 2 > 8 11 18 33 25 34 59 56 37 42 32 31 20 28 26 23 36 37 48 40 32 39 54 34 37 60 > 43 58 19 57 32 21 49 51 47 42 41 54 35 26 22 32 29 28 46 41 30 7 16 26 19 23 > 29 35 5 8 24 5 36 17 31 29 14 46 64 70 21 46 50 48 76 28 5 15 48 84 56 62 > 52 47 38 39 63 39 35 37 38 67 66 64 69 21 50 51 56100 65 60 62 69 90 79130 40 > 10 25 97 68 58 2 23 30 54 93130103 62 90 63 46103 68135 > 50=N 4001=I CHA001F -2(26F3.0)~ > 30 20 14 24 33 36 10 11 12 13 10 5 6 8 10 5 3 7 9 13 11 14 5 6 8 9 > 14 22 14 16 13 12 6 7 8 8 10 9 14 4 11 6 9 11 15 11 7 10 8 3 > 203=N 0=I CHA009A -2(26F3.0)~ > 90120205157225 21 88148152106101184132144169140155150128141214192213 95202166 >134109160149184267272205174162121100194 78177162 95182193237175217176196209281 >215157187182201284207207178191161212239202147 56113170186131238127209151181193 >239227190 70104142127106 88 65107113 77109 87132 57 8 87 46 62 51 61 83105125 >104 59 93 19 51 55 47 26 38 84139173 75 64 52 30 89115 73 71116113 84146117134 >160 80112115121122 81113120 84123 63 79 74153174 85121 85 62 88121 82105 37 46 > 72 55 52 87 73 38 51 51 50 59 34 54 41 19 30 38 9 23 22 24 17 21 35 32 25 44 > 38 37 81 68 66130173158147160132 93121 95107 62 33 22 53 35 47 > 177=N 0=I CHA009B -2(26F3.0)~ > 70124181152208 16 86135142104 96153126126154113137134 94 66110 79131 59105108 >111 82 88 74 67112 99 85 62 50 52 16 61 36 71 90 42 31 52117128 88 69 84100149 >156126126128134159143148135125 76123132101 98 25 67 86133 89127 81135113171193 > 81154166 52 76105105 91 95 72 86 80 45 80 86 69 53 5 79 65 55 51 18 67 57 66 > 66 33 60 37 27 47 41 27 44 48 73 89 54 34 28 22 40 48 27 27 31 36 28 29 35 37 > 29 24 33 37 28 23 22 24 49 33 26 15 24 36 55 68 29 23 29 25 30 55 35 39 19 35 > 30 42 28 33 14 20 24 32 29 25 14 33 16 11 18 20 5 17 13 20 12 > 127=N 0=I CHA009C -2(26F3.0)~ > 86 71 21 49 65 73 37 4 62 48 76 55 42 61 58 55 78 67104 36 39 48 43 22 41 56 > 64 68 36 35 21 15 54 46 20 27 39 43 22 36 34 52 43 24 50 36 40 44 39 47 92 42 > 65 26 57 39 74 57 24 31 25 22 40 51 52 50 23 28 36 47 36 51 35 29 34 39 37 39 > 16 35 25 8 20 25 11 17 11 16 14 18 22 25 28 57 41 48 71 56 49 85 73 75 70113 >103 68110 51 76 52 37 17 37 22 31 60 6 17 30 32 34 49 35 59 60 41 81 > 345=N 0=I CHA012Y -2(26F3.0)~ > 17 25 26 12 43 37 44 38 48 50 90 39 62 77 72 77 88107117104 27 53 55 68 70 49 > 86 65 56 35 21 12 16 17 12 21 25 18 20 19 30 39 19 15 18 22 36 40 64 61 82 63 >101111 61116 84 92 81 54 48 11 7 25 30 17 36 26 36 35 42 34 62 43 51 33 47 34 > 36 27 30 51 57 88116 97108 86 53 59 55 37 54 7 38 30 42 21 64 80 93 70 78 65 > 61 56 53 31 49 26 46 53 19 42 37 46 27 37 35 51 46 86 78 96 75 91 61 46 43 56 > 59 53 49 22 63 50 43 51 47 67 61 59 72 20 36 11 60 59 66 48 91 45 63 76 82 38 > 57 54 44 57 45 37 25 53 26 20 41 35 39 25 14 52 32 38 62 34 54 36 22 23 46 26 > 30 59 87 59 55 13 45 34 29 49 42 53 62 96 72 50 34 63 64 40 56 79 73 71 53 52 > 30 52 54 10 50 45 59 54 16 40 38 21 18 56 22 36 25 19 24 46 28 31 49 36 17 11 > 35 45 13 28 29 7 39 38 26 24 19 40 54 53 46 39 17 69 55 41 16 45 65 63 27 57 > 39 67 56 38 73 31 77 56 27 44 21 7 31 30 11 18 17 31 11 50 23 39 31 24 51 46 > 55 72 75 59 70 65 59 43 21 32 35 23 29 56 8 24 43 55 7 54 17 11 10 30 18 16 > 32 22 7 47 36 22 52 47 44 36 47 23 38 29 36 40 43 40 7 27 26 23 14 11 24 27 > 19 14 22 26 39 60 42 > 318=N 0=I CHA017A -2(26F3.0)~ > 66 20 19 31 22 32 57 48 77115101 75 25 39 67 57 13 64 75104 95 64 54 39 21 35 > 52 31 66 50 58 52 51 49 48 30 47 33 33 31 22 23 32 40 43 32 28 32 23 27 35 28 > 40 38 34 24 31 33 32 29 46 25 36 48 45 38 48 42 55 42 39 44 32 14 27 43 38 62 > 40 32 53 17 30 39 38 31 39 54 31 41 32 9 35 31 37 28 29 36 41 40 29 32 38 26 > 27 40 34 53 47 31 30 51 60 49 44 26 22 25 47 40 41 29 28 41 39 30 32 33 21 40 > 31 33 26 39 31 23 27 34 17 13 14 17 26 25 26 14 16 20 18 12 26 19 27 17 19 23 > 30 17 16 23 15 22 17 18 17 21 5 17 19 11 21 13 24 23 20 15 23 17 18 22 19 22 > 26 14 18 19 26 33 19 11 15 20 25 28 42 49 31 43 95 89 58 65 65 92 88 56 76 32 > 33 58 73 44 50 63 72 57 47 54 67 35 81 49 50 36 55 71 80124122140 92116 97115 > 65 64 56 53 79 61 62 53 43 52 81113 74 81 63 60 48 52 61 27 53 35 30 44 20 35 > 29 32 24 23 39 30 25 64 42 61 59 52 39 40 38 51 62 33 34 16 32 41 42 47 63 50 > 44 63 43 13 26 23 29 24 22 24 42 18 32 30 27 18 32 20 25 28 28 25 16 33 15 21 > 29 25 32 14 4 14 > 318=N 0=I CHA017B -2(26F3.0)~ > 71 21 16 35 24 37 59 49 79125101 70 30 50 73 55 12 62 72105 98 69 48 41 23 33 > 63 38 68 54 63 41 45 41 38 32 43 22 25 20 16 19 33 42 45 39 31 35 26 24 34 25 > 38 28 29 24 25 34 30 22 39 29 28 33 28 26 30 31 35 29 25 27 23 8 17 20 22 41 > 20 19 31 9 24 34 30 21 26 47 20 24 21 2 18 12 18 14 20 18 28 29 21 28 26 27 > 20 29 30 37 38 25 22 36 35 32 35 15 12 10 32 34 31 19 15 24 20 14 17 17 12 31 > 26 19 17 24 21 15 24 17 13 8 7 17 21 24 27 14 17 18 13 4 23 24 22 14 16 18 > 25 16 17 21 15 20 16 16 17 21 9 18 13 15 18 13 17 16 17 15 24 16 19 22 17 23 > 16 15 19 17 24 21 23 9 15 12 23 31 38 28 19 17 33 23 20 38 24 33 35 19 27 18 > 17 23 25 11 23 24 30 21 17 19 31 20 31 20 27 26 41 21 32 46 42 52 48 53 47 55 > 32 46 33 28 30 19 18 23 24 29 47 40 23 34 29 28 25 13 29 9 31 14 13 26 8 19 > 15 13 15 14 27 23 20 33 19 32 24 22 22 17 19 21 17 14 15 7 20 21 16 24 21 23 > 27 22 27 3 19 7 26 21 23 16 30 15 29 26 21 13 31 15 18 25 21 19 16 34 17 23 > 28 21 31 15 4 10 > 176=N 0=I CHA017C -2(26F3.0)~ > 63 40 38 19 33 41 47 50 64 50 45 48 43 8 24 21 34 42 52 33 49 25 45 68 55 40 > 71 32 51 69 56 58 41 57 47 49 60 55 61 35 23 36 30 27 17 15 18 3 6 4 2 9 > 4 12 9 4 3 2 2 5 2 7 7 3 5 10 6 2 8 21 14 9 13 20 10 19 10 17 > 12 19 19 12 21 19 27 18 13 14 17 17 20 27 12 14 10 13 12 28 9 16 17 27 9 13 > 21 23 2 11 12 2 22 19 14 10 11 19 14 13 21 12 7 13 18 22 16 14 9 14 10 18 > 14 24 26 22 35 17 33 19 8 18 12 5 19 41 11 16 7 21 13 37 10 26 28 23 39 24 > 26 45 34 43 29 32 41 29 25 31 33 31 19 35 5 17 33 41 3 30 > 74=N 0=I CHA017D -2(26F3.0)~ > 65 17 12 20 23 28 57 53 82128130 70 15 40 59 49 13 61 66 86 89 61 47 32 18 30 > 43 30 59 46 49 36 47 55 38 35 52 30 34 26 21 26 29 33 47 44 37 38 31 34 47 33 > 28 34 36 27 30 37 38 33 45 26 31 42 43 36 49 46 53 37 40 41 28 16 > 35=N 0=I CHA017E -2(26F3.0)~ > 64 20 12 16 27 25 54 43 74122124 73 19 38 55 44 11 47 58 87 82 52 37 25 11 26 > 28 27 48 44 50 29 42 59 30 > 114=N 0=I CHA017F -2(26F3.0)~ > 5 7 12 12 14 7 8 11 13 6 9 13 5 8 6 8 6 12 16 11 21 13 21 16 7 12 > 15 10 13 18 10 15 10 2 14 9 20 11 16 11 15 7 5 18 2 14 11 5 15 9 6 4 > 5 8 7 10 12 7 4 12 15 11 10 16 10 13 11 14 8 19 20 13 26 12 30 18 5 10 > 5 4 11 14 5 10 4 13 4 25 7 18 19 15 26 16 20 31 22 25 21 16 26 17 5 26 > 24 21 9 19 2 11 21 26 2 21 > 298=N 0=I CHA060A -2(26F3.0)~ > 61 73112 57 67 48 61 59 82110123 74 85 83 82 75 64 68 55 65 78110126122116154 > 94 84112155148 77113 82 83 84 84 75 87132119 93 79 65 53 45 76 74 99 80 28 72 > 84 93 97 74 51 86 62 53 44 86 47 67 44 68 78 60 71 77 53 49 77 70 60 55 49 77 >104 97 97 53 41 23 74 73 94 71 99 47 69 64 85 61104 81 74 58 60 81 71 72 53 32 > 64 51 76 38 37 67 75100105113128 35 56 52 61 32 29 50 94107127 18 83 95106 95 > 65 79 99 87 49 57 45 56 82 57 57 37104111 46 44 51 50 64 15 52 57 81 61 30 41 > 35 54 68107 55 43 22 29 21 45 22 22 14 17 9 15 33 35 14 40 34 26 32 42 17 18 > 15 43 41 35 36 33 17 29 34 23 17 28 38 34 28 38 44 98 87 39124 45 68 54 25 15 > 4 2 18 33 35 32 14 18 13 31 10 24 31 14 26 27 24 45 41 55 41 58 50 54 24 38 > 25 30 12 23 6 14 29 35 16 30 10 14 12 32 51 17 35 27 13 37 22 12 34 27 21 24 > 49 19 17 23 13 11 22 18 3 17 34 32 13 10 12 15 6 5 10 4 7 8 5 19 20 20 > 39 12 10 18 12 25 32 44 39 22 42 45 > 167=N 0=I CHA060B -2(26F3.0)~ > 26 56 60 38 73 39 24 55 56 90117155148 47 73 88 59 28 27 50 94 88100 36 74 70 > 66 77 68 70 85114 89 76 54 84 81 54 60 35121113 52 51 41 29 74 19 56 62 85 70 > 29 34 24 21 26 60 53 32 19 14 11 28 23 19 16 17 14 13 25 23 9 13 14 9 14 21 > 6 3 5 14 13 17 13 12 2 33 27 32 28 54 60 59 36 52 48 83 34 23 58 32 44 38 > 19 9 2 2 16 20 20 10 11 15 11 29 11 30 33 21 31 37 40 58 58 84 65 68 54 54 > 17 45 47 39 19 17 4 17 32 39 14 27 15 5 13 30 44 21 30 22 13 25 9 2 36 27 > 25 27 62 34 27 35 15 9 21 15 19 > 128=N 0=I CHA060C -2(26F3.0)~ > 60100158 87 95118132119144136155124125 80111 99 60 74 46 70 75 97135115118170 >106 91135167147100 77 88 87 91 81 73 95135118 89 77 65 53 50 79 75101 79 29 73 > 82 95 97 74 49 86 61 57 44 85 48 66 47 70 78 63 71 77 54 49 80 70 62 58 48 80 >105 85103 49 41 21 78 72 93 72 99 48 70 64 87 64127 74 78 83 53 79 61 60 37 28 > 34 25 62 31 28 61 67 81 85 64 93 44 35 45 44 18 21 37 63 73 86 25 63 65 > 100=N 0=I CHA060D -2(26F3.0)~ >115 80116 39 74 50 44 30 39 6 25 30 44 35 50 40 18 32 47 76 53 68 75 43 76 72 > 46 80 71 64 60115 85 50 62 41 23 30 56 14 47 81 94 42 89 27 85 8 18 10 16 24 > 18 26 22 32 51 58 73 66 69 47 40 56 50 73 88107 87 67 80 31 52 64 81 34 39 17 > 43 29 61 60 47 65 79114 22 68 59113 54103106110 58 82107133180178 > >2).rwm >all series cross-dated measurements = 4 trees > 270=N 0=I CHA044d -2(26F3.0)~ > 42 76 35 37 35 27 47 24 95105128 94102 51 37 26 38 30 35 20 37 19 16 39 50 44 > 78 44 69 79 66 31 55 32 34 17 51 37 36 88 73 17 15 27 76 45 48 39 70 47 52 25 > 44 65 62 19 38 29 36 16 37 3 15 37 36 25 34 20 22 50 78 37 14 68 94 93 87 78 > 82 68 55 38 21 43 28 39 43 56 42116 45 47 40 27 45 54 39 34 40 42 45 83 42 29 > 34 37 43 48102 53 74 31 47 48 37 43 29 12 11 8 30 15 54 24 62100138113 51100 > 48 15 13 28 12 18 19 41 30 38 36 48 48 20 38 40 45 35 19 48 61 59 27 20 33 49 > 41 50 32 15 35 38 21 38 54 24 58 55118 95107 70 28 26 30 43 39 59 20 37 35 24 > 58 47 47 83 26 68 53 38 65 31 33 64 52 15 54 29 10 10 12 16 19 32 17 42 27 36 > 27 41 19 19 36 29 51 74 57 38 44 38 71 57 38 22 15 19 16 35 24 30 8 19 39 51 > 18 32 17 25 14 17 12 10 11 20 26 6 12 18 13 30 7 17 19 20 13 24 12 21 26 19 > 22 20 20 13 22 32 12 16 6 6 > 167=N 37=I MAY928d -3(20F4.0)~ > 85 160 220 375 700 605 295 465 225 630 185 335 300 320 195 345 285 215 460 405 > 170 320 140 85 35 35 50 125 55 190 65 90 175 235 180 55 280 410 500 540 > 310 360 410 345 240 255 415 245 505 665 560 475 950 430 195 465 345 495 275 290 > 335 615 765 420 610 420 415 510 380 525 540 675 410 720 260 710 655 550 730 270 > 350 210 190 210 390 450 390 540 600 280 330 200 495 395 185 110 580 435 315 335 > 495 565 325 400 510 220 85 440 480 280 430 145 615 595 720 815 535 815 580 580 > 790 740 67511751080 820 790 880 430 880 995 935 625 945 205 110 160 410 780 585 >1135 335 640 420 505 390 540 450 830 4751015 660 535 420 110 200 430 310 410 350 > 70 140 50 120 180 330 200 > 133=N 155=I MAY925X -5(13F6.0)~ > 84333 75750136750 97000104500121750162250 89500 91000 92000 47000109250 98250 > 68500 69750 88000 9500 41250 77750 46250 73750 48250 79000 37750 63500 46750 > 60000 47750 68000 50500 75750 64250105750 72250 69500102500 45250 86250134000 >139750 10250125250104000 45250 81000 54750103000 99500100750 54750117500 51500 > 75500 76750124250 95250112250121500122750178500132250165250 79750118000 85000 >120750122500 81500 54250 66750 76000 61000100250 76250112000 39000 61750 78000 >128750 86750 75250 52750 80500 79500107250 71000 50500 78250 57000 44500 34333 > 3500 36000 56000 5500 15500 44500 28000 47500 62000 57000 25500 45000 42000 > 37500 30500 49500 55000 34500 44500 13500 37500 42000 40500 31500 23500 14500 > 13500 33500 24000 20000 11500 8500 19000 27000 7000 24000 35000 37000 33000 > 24000 14000 24000 > 138=N 158=I MAY9271 -2(26F3.0)~ >130102116161111 95 71 38 87 79 90 82103 13 53 87 51 99 54118 39 96 69 86 62 84 > 50 89 91124106 94133 69 95110 87 10104 95 71 95 66 90101111 78116 47 71 64117 > 60 68 95101116102 88 40 55 33 69 97 55 37 43 34 44 61 31 34 9 22 41 53 36 38 > 43 58 44 69 40 24 44 40 30 29 6 29 51 8 19 42 15 19 31 27 11 23 30 29 17 29 > 26 16 22 9 21 30 23 20 14 15 12 21 15 18 13 8 23 21 7 18 17 20 15 12 7 18 > 9 10 7 8 16 3 13 8 > > Some information about the super-long tree-ring chronology > the East of Taymir and Putoran > (10.10.1998) > >1. There are following samples in our laboratory (Fig.1): > - tree-ring cores and cross-sections from living tree > of different sites near the northern (Ari-Mas) and upper > timberline (Kotuy river) - 70 samples; > - cross-sections from dead (about 200-1900 years ago) > trees from the upper timberline (Kotuy river) - 163 > samples; > - cross-sections of subfossil wood - 167 samples. > >2. What abready done? > - Measurements: > 91 cross-sections of dead trees > 45 cross-sections of subfossil wood (only some have radiocarbon dates); > - The results of cross-dating: > a) the chronology from BC 212 till AD 1996 was built > (2209 years) for the dead trees. 118 samples (from 27 > living trees and 91 dead trees) were cross-dated (Fig.2). > b) 9 samples of subfossil wood from Heta and Maimecha > rivers were used to build the 543 years - chronology from > AD 746 till AD 1288 years. > c) the 296 years "floating" chronology was built using > 4 samples of subfossil wood. The radiocarbon dates 1 > sample (MAY925) - years BP 2440#20 B-6785 (Fig 2). > d) the 685 years "floating" chronology was built using > 5 samples of subfossil wood. The radiocarbon dates of > this material lay near the climatic optimum of Holocene - > years BP 5150 till 4910 (Fig. 2); > d) some floating chronologies were built using 1-2 > samples (Fig.2). > - The results of radiocarbon dating is showuin (Tabl.1 and Fig.2). > >3. The potential of the dendrochronological material: > The radiocarbon dates and all the chronologies built > show the great potential of the collected material to get > the 5500 years (maybe longer) chronology from the > climatic optimum of Holocene till the present time. > > >4. INFORMATION DATA (Compact format ITRDB): > >trwcrn.rwm -> Tree-ring widths (TRW) chronology (Tabl.2 TIME SERIES) > Ident. No. - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 time series measurements >1).rwm -> Cross-dated measurements, Ident. No. 1). >2).rwm -> Cross-dated measurements, Ident. No. 2). >11).rwm -> Cross-dated measurements, Ident. No. 11). > >rcscrn.rwm -> RCS index cronology (Briffa et al, 1992,1996) > 5 or more series (trees) - interval BC 81 till AD 1994 years: > 1) RCS chronology > 2) RCS-RES chronology > 3) 5-years moving average concordance coeffient > >tem-rec.rwm -> Temperature reconstructed: > 1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology > 2) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology > (5-years moving average) > 3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology > (5-years moving average) > > > >Tabl.1 RADIOCARBON DATES OF TAYMIR SAMPLES >_________________________________________________________________________ > Radiocarbon Age: >Ident. Lab. Uncalibrated Calibrated age(s) Dendrochronology age, > No. No. age, ***, > Years BP Years AD/BC Years AD/BC >__________________________________________________________________________ > > 1 KTU-004 230#65 so an-3391** - 1750 AD > 1 KTU-030 400#35 so an-3392** - 1500 AD > 1 KTU-009 665#50 so an-3390** - 1300 AD > 1 MAY-923 910#30 B-6089 * 1161 AD 1168 AD > 1 MAY-918 960#30 B-6087 * 1037 AD 1108 AD > > MAY-920 1100#30 B-6088 * 974 AD (Betula) > > 2 MAY-925 2440#20 B-6785 * 514 BC - > 2 MAY-927 - - - > 2 MAY-928 - - - > 2 CHA-044 - - - > > NOV-069 2890#20 B-6788 * 1030 BC - > > 3 CHA-H1 3110#30 B-6083 * 1398 BC - > > CHA-059 3400#30 B-6427 * 1683 BC - > > 4 MAY-702 3930#30 B-6784 * 2456 BC - > > NOV-077 4240#30 B-6789 * 2881 BC - > > 5 NOV-001 4370#40 B-6419 * 2923 BC - > > 6 CHA-H6 4510#40 B-6086 * 3302, 3234, 3178, - > 3164, 3110 BC > > NOV-030 4570#40 B-6082 * 3345 BC - > > 7 NOV-078 4600#40 B-6420 * 3358 BC - > > NOV-080 4640#30 B-6421 * 3370 BC - > > 8 NOV-A02 4680#40 B-6081 * 3497, 3457, 3378 BC - > > 9 CHA-005 4730#30 B-6780 * 3611, 3608, 3513, - > 3391, 3390 BC > > CHA-023 4750#30 B-6781 * 3617, 3588, 3528 BC - > > 10 NOV-029 4810#40 B-6080 * 3634 BC - > > CHA-043 4900#30 B-6783 * 3690, 3666 BC - > > 11 CHA-060 4970#40 B-6418 * 3761, 3735, 3726 BC - > 11 CHA-060 4910#40 so an-3390** - - > 11 CHA-012 4980#30 B-6423 * 3772 BC - > 11 CHA-012 4855#45 so an-3388** - - > 11 CHA-009 4990#30 B-6424 * 3776 BC - > 11 CHA-017 5010#40 B-6425 * 3785 BC - > > CHA-H4 5020#40 B-6084 * 3792 BC - > > CHA-036 5040#30 B-6782 * 3899, 3884, 3801 BC - > > CHA-032 5110#30 B-6426 * 3950 BC - > > 11 CHA-001 5150#40 B-6085 * 3964 BC - > 11 CHA-001 4865#45 so an-3387** - - > > CHA-011 5250#30 B-6422 * 4038, 4014, 4007 BC - > > NOV-005 5400#30 B-6787 * 4310, 4248 BC - >____________________________________________________________________________ > >* - Institute of Fhysics, University of Bern, Swiss. >** - Institute of geology, geophysics and mineralogy, Novosibirsk, Russia. >*** - Stuiver M. and Reimer P.J., 1993, Radiocarbon, 35, p. 215-230 ># - +/- > > > > Tabl.2 TIME SERIES >____________________________________________________________ > Interval, Years AD/BC: >Ident. No. Trees, Years >Chronology No. Start End > samples >_____________________________________________________________ > > 1 118 -212 1996 2209 > 2 4 -670* -375 296 > 3 1 -1398* -1093 306 > 4 1 -2456* -2187 270 > 5 1 -2923* -2678 245 > 6 1 -3178* -2874 345 > 7 1 -3358* -3060 299 > 8 1 -3457* -3172 286 > 9 1 -3513* -3316 198 > 10 1 -3634* -3329 306 > 11 5 -3964* -3280 685 >______________________________________________________________ > >* - Calibrated radiocarbon age (Tabl.1) > >rcscrn.rwm >118 series => RCS index cronology (Briffa et al, 1992,1996) >5 or more series (trees) - interval BC 81 till AD 1994 years: > 1) RCS chronology > 2) RCS-RES chronology > 3) 5-years moving average concordance coeffient > >1) RCS chronology > 2076=N -81=I RCS -4(16F5.0)~ >14011 4098116021511022253208791840716758 9341 7692 659314917 934112637 745910221 > 9116147221564214246144441452517877162011089413559 98871440714000105111221615625 > 91951120716286 9770 84801315814244 3216 9706133141065110651 9467 95241227513030 > 9091 454513190 4908 70551543214286 9317 7188 312511950 8176 8805 8228 6051 6774 > 8766 8766 5844 3595 6536 3947 5298 4000 8054 5369 6711 7432 3716 9459 839710808 > 8521 5000 5423 8527 965413500 5462 462 7634 5057 5192 4115 5802 7577 7346 6260 > 1145 6844 9620 6046 8821 8923 38210496 6046 4297 7443 4144 7358 5817 9925 3521 > 200011610 4566 168510491 2809 3895 2959 3955 3708 6679 5660 4943 4679 3170 1199 > 8539 5094 4045 4719 5746 7090 8614 6180 6367 7266 4113 6264 6604 614210936 5623 > 7338 5267 8053 2863 8130 2366 7252 7557 4731 7388 9814 6778 750911593 8598 4945 > 658112564142281014711530 9036 761611479 99651245614007 6505 8034 979210451 6632 > 8962148441314411438 7318 9700 5927 90071253312310 8284 213111320 8878 194712664 >11776 4868 7467 73031190810789 811911413 9278122141310714348 8940 89371455111495 >106621900716964181521818512508 5987114431144713729 4178 4125 506310000 7555 6865 > 959211447 9654 765812921 952410633 847110603 834412244 939116977152901161315484 > 56631685115033 9379 3980 910911258 5927107001171111145 138510510 5918 5442 9726 > 628912379 7690 751711993 986 2261 3203 7046 8363 9570 4152 8267 5018 6836 7709 > 7390 3764 8635 8848 9366 5506 7678 5585 3182 8023 3168 4046 6577 895811622 5156 > 5608 6285 876 3705 7960 2800 8065 4919 5182 1510 8402 5844 4362 35951182611292 > 5732 7173 8686 669512000 4298 8283 780210345 6696 3130 75551432313640 745610702 > 572710363 600811012 9510 7623122541118913992 98771967119711185891925019665 8319 > 970516356147031402514255 897912532 9004115581259715000 757711700150611333324082 > 432717824204601543913473174901141716611 679214917142922600017500185001495812469 >15397 9833 7731 852918870 918810468135171468416160 8608 369715565 8243 3128 7951 >1267513265 8402122131288612967 9431102421326612972156801304011036140241115110593 >11220 5020 590613255 44311218812383117971406315686 9961 3438 750013774 684811434 >1140612188 9492 1716 802211791 39031092911642 959010487 9607 1679 4321 9391 9570 > 3405 366910216 8989 895310217 6522 7455 2545 7818125911215313248163741714810913 > 893112786 450416603 7454 9299 8856 7815 97781055613346 529914440 179810789 8906 >1154713019146211327010000 8973 8550 76251429113192 5907 934418919147291221813789 > 709817216 66141442715257 8373124301310812160 538213548 782312186 7918 647511475 >162961839515081160321502011457 522111907113621476613216 436813885 819217876 6240 >11712 7188152161110211614 569218492106371644016965146091184311142124511227113120 >1072613455 8449150411045511901107881570812689 9496110471303519922 5313 859411529 >12992 9409 5889 8000 7885 9691 9922 9961 7198 6641 8549 6299 8661 7154 808814000 >113651413714274137801320310902 92911237212128 5466 96581401710538 8125 9355 5444 > 5181 7229 3855 5040 5219 8406 5595 9447 3704 5123 7633 6748 8826 2892 9197 6295 > 6270 600810346 600911111 7468 878711333 7066124081317111734 66931297613228 7695 >12907 235510038 67301299214699 44031563013579 659 1745 4928 9422 4624 2464 8227 > 1555 3592 2632 4774 7770 7321 6797 4787 6502 1368 667811324 6505 7958 9897 9007 >147441348110816 9763126781653212323 880811716 73601727018783 809813770 8852 9869 >1236118951 836115115177381629514836 80591894715281157431907613245183441093018300 >1553319632117061794120163 91481059410563 2326121001247512718 9504109611544513416 >105361552016007 92451446010616 72461121713954140301212911407 749015802 469515191 > 858210307 888915134 2731 6077 8038 9154 592311245 9200 8635 9720 3546 705210876 > 865110843 7023 9084 539910989 7576 9886 8826 6742 9698 9434 68681086511648 3333 >13483 505611199120521626914963 8736 6097 832111338 59481033512193 8327 379214833 >10335 7732 99631260212937 8333 7658 1784 817214142 9664 672 2463 876410977 6654 > 9286 9019 2264 4531113610644 5475 9466 9962 9808 4483 9115111581069510388 4553 >14163 87111529415529 201613929 8413 8127 348012480 7430 697612661 2927 930911143 >10451 7984 4280 9793 5292 3515 6276 8333 6404 6784 8282 8502 7257 5841 9381 8274 > 977214000 7000 863612273 81821518210234 4372 80091281111558 6250160341575110258 > 7094 684213114 375512707 4522 8268 71981686710255 6894 801714958129061461911646 >1004214125101651222212449 7398 6169 5622 4680 9921 5652 7290 7947 1811 992511288 >12642 7753158211578817701129821595721223 66311355915142121201073916000 986014146 > 9375 687510512 581610000 4797 4061 7993 4139 752510987 76071480411792 8182 6071 > 5487 6440 8935 8476107911557012681 76341237511000 8349 2317 6372 5706 7125 9235 > 5138 6269 7219 3614 5732 9472 7640 8292 4334112881504612362 886514417 9785 6442 >11963106441018312208 7161 605710954 812 3500 7913 7757 4969 6906 6062 811911567 > 6024 88651138513723156311144611061 3303 7152 648110912 9471 5559 42941174014248 >12183182841145014451 5327 4209128061432812934 9488 960812598 808810143 620717320 >1725411420107851533518333 9208 670610914 1213 5371 4881 7006 3462 8095 8836 8383 > 3874 80061027312280 7622 585910862 448912928 915611254110691314312994 9042 9583 >175161587714723 888913388 7450 4086 3967 516810743 525411088 5822 2405 9792 4306 > 7003 5333 1373 6749 2206 5735 7914 3574 5000 6618 2821 8986 94161527514485 3727 > 830913249 8442 576611355119192077819665 4590214231338314811 9734 7977 4406 7568 > 5830 962112510147711716517846144572023326693221091611822244 4032189682215119120 >203601536318543135771742914000 6270 9588 7810 655610705 9458 4833 933612996 8761 >1768912124 50221013312655 8805147352340714381121932021918947 750016419 698710917 >1200910917 8991 50661576418297110481517415739177831647814217 6348 761912554 6710 >1177513060 7155 5905 7436 7930 6711125331387014329 918117803 7333 920412247 6070 > 1126 8276 8889 5932 6414 719713651133881547317837165851991914569 5970 722210295 > 4963 99641443313045 9313 39381391210508 9932 9226127091100316367162791635811683 >12211 802612033 969315505 7584190211432917591 2744 94821262215000145751002915220 >13323 9852131161569711108 95741102311168 769211368139891528613486132951649411523 >181561459510406 327511749 7813 3304 6686 8735 6932 28781354214388117071741011057 >16394 8506107031625815185 1957 831818750133331246112095 920410385141481398124838 > 3257 87251219710285179681684715733158131975818655 782019966 872410862 5034 4759 >10448148621127613552 610316414 55851357910836150322289014693125571055217078 9286 >141751358316124 5260 701311786 7346 7638 928810712 6935 4387 8419 125810129 7968 > 8226 874210194 7968 9806 790310540 4000 638116943 5446 130612204 9175 3531 6602 > 8026 4434 4757 9256 4595 5566 867311812 9708 327911753 953111500 95631100014515 >1658814732 696811924 536410142 2045 5954 465711203 8625 9713 6340 800610405 7333 >12122 8251 5526 8387 7393 6322 9222 716810407 9300 8480 4076 3982 8580 802313509 > 4487 4189 9497 7619 961111171 6416 7609 2399 9097 7937 404411321 5899 5886 8861 > 6646 6925 8140 7104 2080 3425 4509 3108 6369 5031 2679 7672 5629 6757 2072 3765 > 6737 4018 4636 4711 5478 3376 9841 1975 5924 8503 3387 5240 9073 5705 2019 5641 > 8942 971110289 900314839 7323 4693 6602 8447 7110 938311107 7362143251678219412 >14187184431747411107153291539814256 4775 3910 1142 3958 2639 9063 5729 621514132 >1348414878 1463 5226 48431094410306 2891 6678 9424 972911017177701299713056 9618 >11216 865814195178261203313522160601498311316 806611438 668811097 51451180110319 >100321219711238108231277612208 3491 7327 927914389 946910938 8750190942233623396 >1445212742 1613 751610221 538513750122681124612134159241098715048124611182414013 > 6082 8438158101243711962124291899410252 9875150161025013687 96251471911745 9502 > 897213551129601155812679 5171104631102213056100621099112136 6130 559012484 6149 >1158915171 82191203817862 657213616 8328 8927 3323 354411841 89841057311981 4920 > 5481 9678 7935 9968 8350 8442 9577 294111377 7730 7327 768210265 378711333 7893 >11409 96681100013077 35911545510068 7288 3810 6724 3767 886610241 55711066014111 > 9863 3918 979314567 99311264810804 5228104931254410957103201075011470 8929 3656 > 798617076117751058210657 9121 5351 8815 643111082 4981 6316 4151 8068 6540 7977 >11111 7654 4363 5194 3658 6824 53941004011071 9203 3123 551610159 8920 2000 8554 > 879013036 97981326514221 8648 1844 7078 8889 4132 7107 9545 4108110371004213042 > 99181351210744 9545 5331 607413678 8264 74801188010720 8720120881417713414 8996 >12410 59271052410403 95971303611053 983810567 410613659 4694 538813388 8402 8566 > 518513457 461512105 9959 8618 81611959 4221 7642 609812245 7020 9344 791815123 >12746 5738 7692 9190 4696 678910732 824510041 85661020512295 8156 799213074 7131 > 938811469 8857 1960 4819 6024 7631 2016 7054 9650 716010584 9157 5417 775712814 > 5687 8397 7663 8538105381123614232 4737124441660413636 3485 8365 419810038 8966 > 5769 5373 9551 7218 680512189 53901156110709 9101 49811007312930 487210809 9631 > 7343 6926 803010632150751269713910 860410868 981111939 5758 6578 7962 8295 4697 > 5475 7191 4925 4151 7727 5747 3000 8962 7799 658910388 883310313 910210863 8275 >12913 2846 5771 2619 1786 6172 5647 3569 5961 9646138171194712184 751011455 9636 > 72991065712857 6557134191176511993 292410325 9130 9927 9088 6533 886410625 9669 >17011 4222158741492511648 94011194913165 7040 847813091 98551332112857 8162 3616 >1396314126114181314616504178111575812772 985014755 9583 6692 8855 96151586910078 > 6926 241211401 976612392 94091608715992177781095618288 937510902 9724 338610198 >15079106771735413477 63141066710276137941074215647137401039414479 95741531011751 > 89841113316471192551007812802 8716 706611236 3946109581119212625127521096915798 > 40631373510039 9219 7665 3268 4844 6863 5354 6640 4722 7450 2600 4710 7597 9222 > 8506 6988 2597 6822 81321164112078 287413004 5635 2351 948011084 8669 8219 6220 > 640811189 921811570 8640 7952 818511296 7642 8659 3837 8730 4542150201092011285 > 996113294119691359710040203091771314008135111452116423 8571 647317782 2763 8320 > 866710591 5217 500011912 796015360170681536317935141461400016865 7968 6840 7430 >1385513065 7571 89841522412336 753111901109921875519042 9958 5546 62871250011617 > 9447 9957 5708 8491 753218913 772910000 8377 4670 80971172614622131251296017477 >1683313982 98641536414201189141177318500 680418009160631656112500197731739715556 >14267179111604419464231702250030000255362744418565292832166712703219371094618235 >13439165002327314773186361689515160127521477113349130881414710599162501018512000 >17302 995313505131781093911362 7075 62261071112701 84361142918421 63641052612692 >1206719324 8792156801043316250 4734144931177812500 595214371 > >2) RCS-RES chronology > 2072=N -77=I RCS-RES -3(20F4.0)~ >2215183713291085 308 403 5181600 9341314 6661010 9371551155212601228117115331284 > 6941090 71013391275 85411081441 69710301564 759 74412901347 1611056140110631107 > 891 92112681297 822 3801440 473 87317881433 854 617 2381408 9541046 954 670 850 >10841062 732 526 922 658 885 7441185 834 9731020 571127610581285 961 543 6941081 >11981562 538 811041 751 879 762 91311101025 872 31110451309 84911621053 1121401 > 793 6641077 6191069 8591286 524 4311562 646 4481455 456 738 653 767 8141118 937 > 824 790 627 4841352 865 757 830 90010651177 833 853 947 605 923 946 8861407 701 > 931 6981034 4931140 47510851085 71110561231 841 9461344 927 569 81614671558 999 >1106 780 7081227101713021390 488 79010171109 7291013161312951064 584 920 5831043 >14221283 801 16313171005 31315991284 521 908 82813871206 8391205 905126313071354 > 719 78014391043 9991870143815161411 716 176 99910661378 315 437 67312861010 896 >115812731031 8001373 9241084 8351078 8521299 93817451400 9131363 22916571352 702 > 261 9221225 672125812451128 931229 690 7451274 7701484 843 8301340 69 457 655 >112212681264 5721049 667 9311042 952 577114811081129 680 929 714 5261147 565 753 >104112241448 613 705 810 281 7741230 6061236 768 804 4541244 906 743 68815471356 > 671 855 981 8001426 4831007 9401197 797 426101016951478 7061053 4881139 6861268 >1058 816135311211406 87919141721145614571381 189 6091457126012331187 5831111 753 >112012411429 5821106143811832320 -7916101764109710131362 7061418 338137512822458 >12961310 899 6891209 641 588 8081951 774 977127013101483 577 1691623 750 354 996 >14211449 837121212071197 818 9301278121114791088 8621233 901 9231033 388 6651515 > 48514431309114613871412 743 149 7801513 735129211551181 900 87 9691374 5001360 >1266 9821107 932 135 63112351212 537 6031320111711011154 677 858 372106215471354 >137715461478 746 6191127 2911787 656 933 926 782110511401396 4641523 8012441016 >1252139713971176 788 743 781 77915551314 488 9541923131710311144 4001672 4531422 >1437 599118711701076 4111377 7111270 786 648128116931779124512541093 756 2421151 >110614901235 2241406 7221845 4751121 651154710691080 4651884 909155614911091 865 > 821105010821196 9201232 6801459 9031088 98314791102 759 99011971917 224 7481101 >1253 929 544 851 884113211271069 754 738 993 7641071 877 97815831146139712911155 >1096 846 75111621131 450102114501015 795 925 532 656 953 603 823 8451172 8271218 > 534 7541056 9161158 4581196 829 848 8531271 7601318 836 9811252 720135313231096 > 57312881262 6701304 1101141 79114711569 31716371232-110 311 7281308 795 5511173 > 402 762 672 90712311065 950 694 898 37810521489 84510151129 97915931294 942 847 >116515621036 6811044 60317751768 4941214 615 87712411840 6001383154512921163 408 >1700121912831600 8361478 643153111961600 72214301618 396 776 820 88139813271295 > 912100914791183 87814081363 6411290 821 5721131136613351075 957 5731555 3231583 > 775 989 9001509 174 705 9651079 79113221002 9351056 375 8951299 9961231 729 979 > 6151266 8651114 973 72811051031 76812231219 3251518 5001263130216041369 606 437 > 8021208 66311861292 820 42116391029 794105612471272 749 720 181104516661052 121 > 43011751403 8861106 981 292 28815051332 743114710691054 5131057124211461088 425 >1527 85415761468 -601438 743 834 4551420 843 8341434 283113312571105 866 4571134 > 654 570 9351106 895 92510381021 882 7381130 97311261504 642 8931263 7841589 919 > 339 88013671208 63616611450 825 564 5931371 3911454 485 965 89218411006 628 807 >151912551383 963 7881290 84211331135 592 602 634 6431283 766 9641000 33513171338 >1384 792158214341545 96612491763 15911291262 948 9291438 7411286 749 5621081 581 >1146 580 5811080 63610751361 88916331126 718 579 588 82211351047124216291162 613 >1162 982 774 245 804 79910071211 685 848 939 568 8831244 9751033 572133516291200 > 7961345 801 5621237103110251223 628 6251205 137 64011361057 788 956 82210571375 > 6911029123514001520 944 908 154 767 79713081108 637 5721383155412261753 8331191 > 258 335141714811285 836 8281186 7271028 61718181641 901 86413021590 606 4621000 > 66 785 7721015 674114311441028 550101212161363 806 6231189 5051496 97811651116 >12461200 751 873169813961225 5761111 547 371 544 7551405 7471349 684 3791270 611 > 996 794 3821067 546 9911173 629 840 969 5631272119417001434 199 8341343 832 657 >1234121420861710 71927 8941169 705 538 384 868 7671204143015111615150210411624 >21511486 8451512-3571595185314111556 8571275 8091312 978 256 829 708 71912371022 > 56010941399 89618131016 306 9981222 861151022021026 83516431391 2851373 342 981 >1166 994 865 47616671775 8941325124414371278 992 249 5911232 65312851308 630 620 > 822 925 854144614381366 7531634 457 8101183 514 21410771106 821 885 90715561394 >1482157212851578 933 139 521 977 541119315511264 844 299144210321007 93012311041 >157114251328 808 906 5571108 9011517 629183411821465 -70 819123114521382 7781334 >1080 76311781381 884 791 9721012 717115613691422115910801382 82915711105 695 112 >1157 792 446 9151070 898 5111619152411401649 7961403 558 89115201296 -15 8331886 >12021134 986 677 943135112722302-143 6741098 914183514651239120615371364 2681678 > 438 872 393 4801246161111331290 4341583 41213561024139821361021 843 6711419 660 >126711571372 277 6091190 737 89210331137 753 5391018 29913511025100610471099 860 >1058 8391125 454 8001877 524 2511432 989 517 895 972 650 7641202 669 83511281361 >1071 381131610021221 9781063140615081222 4031029 4011070 296 820 747141210701100 > 710 8921160 8101327 835 593 969 849 8031120 85011931016 903 487 570112010331560 > 496 5371143 90411641231 661 855 35211561013 6071395 699 7701095 801 8931001 863 > 398 642 800 6981071 858 6121147 852 975 482 7071044 735 839 816 882 6811340 446 > 9261152 562 8551189 782 470 889119212221198 9591499 636 466 771 987 90711331223 > 778149915901707104314191248 621119611751093 209 310 232 729 7041363 906 9091650 >13691421 -23 545 63113421250 404 873111311281235177610991081 715 936 76213801667 > 945111613091160 833 5661014 5921161 55112881084101212301035100211911086 236 795 >10261543 9631063 804184419951868 803 658-289 6781117 66315881227106011341422 872 >1317 991 9461216 396 80815771128109710791674 714 7681323 7941259 79713341004 787 > 8121287120010351128 353104511021291 95910151119 514 6011353 66112961534 6981165 >1644 4101281 669 821 384 5151458106012041234 436 6391110 9181160 921 9091035 365 >1330 878 862 9251127 4831318 8801234101310841274 2721601 922 689 450 793 5991191 >1256 69812371453 930 37910451488 9671244 947 4151096125910721004 9971066 824 363 > 92718181132 990 935 773 521 978 7511267 608 792 6161051 90210261291 840 547 699 > 5971009 85112911282 986 378 70912151057 380109710471453103112901296 677 122 817 >1050 623 9941154 571133511041349 9641265 939 836 489 6721503 870 83212481037 872 >120813311196 7321105 46310651059 95913211015 899 991 3611452 485 6791520 863 954 > 5891434 50813371031 855 1701381 5561001 8381385 8121035 86415511211 469 770 934 > 560 8921253 9361123 90310531244 774 8121322 674 9911168 858 259 676 8511056 502 >10361226 9061243 977 599 9121385 618 967 855 951117911661401 376124615761169 200 > 799 44811941077 701 7211129 874 8611371 59012781099 896 54610921349 5071187 974 > 763 805 9051180156011811230 644 941 8861135 544 715 911 959 645 766 950 728 708 >1071 826 5871209 995 8691228 9621106 9441094 8241296 263 708 471 4991062 936 727 > 9591248155812181138 6191074 905 72111221274 623136310851094 2301078 9611065 989 > 684 979113810141703 28715571323 935 79710221173 590 8351294 93013071159 659 328 >1456138310701203140814641193 869 6351227 737 573 892 9771618 919 614 25512681093 >1331 945152313961471 7281473 550 848 824 26211491560102416561067 371 965 9231336 > 99714301145 7931254 7221376 972 717101815031692 676 998 599 5821147 41412431188 >12571221 9441417 2091331 909 862 795 367 692 948 812 964 7331010 521 79610851176 >1052 835 410 923105213641299 2971390 570 38012131243 993 919 677 761127410101220 > 855 790 8651178 802 934 4701037 637169611311090 929120410671211 83018331409 983 > 96110461290 539 4771679 129 923 9431103 642 6431356 8841623159212511448 955 988 >1306 428 518 70414021291 693 86714501100 6541118 98117601625 602 289 51012681197 > 953 971 536 923 8571956 677 939 772 445 9711292149712301114148713171010 6371249 >11291597 8131482 297154512901283 902156812631076 9811332114814901758154321791516 >1642 74418921105 3591501 3891375 91512371907 89313481110 962 8451095 99810251153 > 7971408 75910091527 71011641081 861 990 578 62011471301 84511381718 421 9731149 >10601798 5861332 7661377 279134710421103 5151364 > >3) Concordance => 118 series (5-years moving average concordance coeffients) [15JUN98-Muchtar] > 2148=N -155=I CONC5 -2(26F3.0)~ > 55 80 90 95 85 85 95 95 80 90 83 99 85 95 85 85 85 95 80 55 55 78 79 83 79 92 > 82 51 73 87 87 40 23 13 2 25 53 66 61 68 38 59 67 71 63 79 91 90 91 90 87 78 > 85 84 78 74 85 91 89 74 69 38 36 26 8 59 53 39 66 69 84 93 81 81 55 47 86 91 > 82 54 60 87 92 89 72 78 66 56 55 70 77 66 60 18 16 10 28 41 66 77 66 58 45 49 > 52 43 59 54 66 55 68 85 92 87 92 82 36 26 40 42 41 73 71 82 92 90 85 94 84 94 > 87 66 66 51 26 56 41 22 17 35 42 66 53 49 66 56 63 68 74 81 58 66 78 78 87 86 > 69 87 59 75 72 79 65 71 58 58 76 65 60 51 55 59 65 46 87 86 69 77 83 82 61 62 > 70 73 86 93 90 93 86 88 86 73 64 25 50 55 34 52 51 84 77 78 77 76 55 67 81 59 > 31 11 41 40 37 33 40 38 41 41 49 62 61 81 65 68 69 46 54 54 51 49 36 44 47 60 > 77 73 63 44 58 39 33 48 66 45 55 50 53 40 33 60 75 65 45 44 41 37 61 44 49 76 > 75 74 67 79 53 71 76 80 68 77 37 25 9 31 69 41 41 40 64 48 43 52 44 54 54 42 > 75 82 72 60 83 81 66 70 75 65 48 50 38 38 39 33 26 24 17 22 30 31 59 69 44 52 > 57 56 60 72 91 88 75 81 83 51 43 72 54 79 83 84 58 68 69 51 67 80 92 89 92 89 > 79 60 59 66 58 67 53 55 49 50 46 75 47 62 73 52 68 68 75 69 82 67 81 69 79 64 > 78 86 90 79 69 74 62 46 46 45 51 52 53 51 59 34 34 30 40 41 46 54 62 62 73 77 > 86 77 86 83 79 65 58 28 39 23 53 55 40 36 21 22 8 48 77 78 80 69 42 25 25 41 > 44 55 70 74 67 76 71 81 83 79 83 75 70 45 64 53 76 69 62 81 81 54 55 60 35 58 > 73 70 78 56 63 66 72 57 70 80 79 90 90 85 81 71 73 42 40 39 54 32 44 54 55 18 > 25 16 18 19 15 60 66 71 76 73 75 50 58 34 48 64 57 58 54 55 30 29 27 55 55 60 > 77 79 54 58 54 20 64 76 78 72 83 77 70 70 63 53 33 30 66 63 77 79 68 42 22 38 > 39 38 56 60 71 77 67 45 14 10 34 62 68 87 84 82 73 62 25 23 19 26 34 19 37 58 > 61 65 62 59 63 46 56 50 76 73 71 72 68 39 38 37 35 49 47 55 73 57 81 90 83 61 > 26 40 59 61 64 51 55 49 58 66 78 80 77 76 85 82 60 76 76 78 84 76 61 58 54 49 > 15 9 23 17 47 55 64 54 55 20 21 18 19 22 54 73 78 80 77 55 70 70 61 45 47 22 > 11 21 22 21 17 17 17 50 51 45 25 13 20 9 36 42 39 60 63 60 43 50 25 55 66 60 > 75 60 60 56 36 45 51 49 57 51 42 57 61 61 58 43 30 33 60 58 32 38 31 36 50 53 > 70 52 54 60 58 63 59 60 76 76 67 71 54 83 94 94 92 85 75 80 90 84 78 79 77 63 > 55 41 26 70 71 73 69 74 47 28 56 46 40 29 22 35 45 54 55 79 75 79 80 73 70 64 > 44 62 62 73 58 40 34 48 58 53 52 48 28 30 55 51 46 49 49 29 27 60 68 72 76 57 > 53 52 64 34 55 55 52 41 30 43 38 46 55 44 47 50 44 15 51 59 76 79 80 72 67 58 > 69 70 75 77 74 55 49 52 48 49 60 74 65 66 44 35 48 45 49 49 51 45 40 33 37 28 > 39 61 77 72 81 71 52 49 30 56 70 59 53 55 52 62 81 74 74 81 83 69 61 62 54 77 > 74 80 88 94 92 90 83 85 64 24 65 82 84 83 88 72 41 51 76 54 47 43 38 54 54 49 > 63 66 64 75 72 68 71 76 68 67 73 72 62 80 60 64 65 67 75 85 78 78 74 71 33 31 > 14 20 29 28 37 49 48 55 64 73 82 66 83 75 67 50 52 50 67 60 73 77 67 65 67 75 > 80 74 75 66 52 55 62 55 62 51 33 32 28 19 18 43 53 74 64 47 42 59 59 72 66 68 > 64 61 50 56 49 48 9 23 65 68 68 69 61 37 45 58 59 71 62 83 69 68 59 49 57 38 > 57 55 71 53 56 52 53 31 29 30 48 49 32 38 31 31 30 62 60 65 53 71 47 46 46 59 > 45 55 53 47 57 63 84 79 82 64 71 76 73 72 52 44 47 67 71 82 82 87 83 81 54 38 > 39 56 44 47 29 40 56 40 23 59 68 68 72 62 40 61 69 81 80 85 53 51 78 89 82 80 > 82 69 38 47 52 37 56 74 82 62 55 39 53 62 65 65 83 76 87 82 70 57 58 52 75 50 > 55 73 75 51 61 79 80 73 67 73 50 48 48 55 74 79 83 76 64 61 82 82 70 70 63 85 > 84 87 85 89 87 86 90 83 83 81 87 87 80 76 74 59 49 69 83 81 91 82 79 74 57 52 > 60 64 75 64 75 77 72 57 52 52 36 54 74 61 75 49 50 32 63 67 60 49 81 64 67 66 > 67 54 58 79 70 43 75 88 83 73 56 32 63 67 73 70 80 51 61 69 57 56 75 82 76 71 > 58 47 64 64 78 72 65 64 42 54 74 77 81 80 49 48 44 11 50 73 66 53 45 48 53 53 > 38 37 24 50 69 71 59 51 61 60 49 55 66 70 78 57 48 11 49 66 62 59 25 40 29 63 > 84 85 75 49 54 60 56 61 57 62 59 60 30 33 28 36 19 25 29 40 23 18 24 38 61 71 > 62 83 87 82 85 69 37 34 18 36 31 26 35 47 46 46 24 14 21 33 45 10 8 30 47 51 > 70 87 87 78 81 87 76 61 81 84 87 89 75 53 67 79 72 45 38 47 51 77 85 79 47 41 > 22 29 33 71 87 91 90 87 73 61 38 28 21 22 60 54 61 57 62 64 54 70 68 75 65 66 > 71 66 60 55 70 55 61 62 66 53 58 49 42 60 58 51 51 29 24 38 37 54 60 88 83 78 > 55 55 19 22 30 37 32 46 49 63 72 90 90 83 84 89 66 62 43 49 45 38 56 68 68 77 > 65 62 57 59 20 45 57 73 71 69 82 70 78 78 62 82 78 61 57 30 29 35 58 45 66 64 > 58 25 22 19 26 21 22 50 70 71 83 86 83 82 73 78 76 74 47 35 65 67 59 80 85 77 > 72 72 50 37 47 29 65 65 55 39 45 42 71 80 58 59 76 83 68 70 53 25 42 40 69 90 > 75 71 75 64 71 69 71 75 74 72 55 12 38 46 50 45 56 28 43 46 38 54 56 68 64 45 > 38 44 35 29 26 63 73 85 69 43 77 85 86 91 73 75 82 71 80 83 80 74 74 65 67 70 > 65 45 34 42 39 37 56 71 71 72 60 57 48 63 65 66 59 78 67 65 49 54 19 20 24 10 > 46 57 60 70 64 37 34 50 66 75 70 53 80 88 68 78 89 75 64 55 28 33 35 32 26 15 > 46 58 68 61 52 32 47 51 52 66 68 42 43 45 40 40 45 46 42 32 19 41 43 40 53 57 > 23 30 59 53 66 68 69 75 72 72 72 85 80 77 76 80 84 82 80 83 70 65 75 75 71 66 > 57 34 31 61 68 78 82 76 56 67 80 80 78 72 48 44 65 80 75 84 85 85 79 77 89 79 > 74 60 60 79 71 78 74 77 46 70 66 68 55 57 19 16 18 59 60 79 79 77 46 42 35 37 > 54 59 69 64 57 59 39 43 63 41 64 56 71 53 42 65 85 63 77 66 70 58 74 65 55 71 > 71 53 44 51 80 88 79 74 66 53 61 67 53 58 60 27 29 23 55 71 77 77 68 64 44 38 > 43 32 36 46 37 69 68 60 48 52 15 14 13 47 52 65 71 70 72 58 47 58 62 78 78 76 > 78 62 75 88 84 78 61 46 52 64 55 69 73 76 66 47 59 54 52 30 15 28 34 41 51 57 > 37 46 42 61 71 72 64 81 68 73 65 67 35 55 58 70 67 62 55 56 42 21 51 55 59 63 > 54 79 79 89 85 74 62 60 50 41 32 60 56 68 68 53 68 56 62 77 73 56 72 56 36 34 > 60 65 54 41 42 46 47 50 57 54 45 32 40 49 54 31 35 38 47 63 65 60 60 17 23 26 > 20 27 36 70 80 80 79 64 63 65 65 56 78 78 52 35 33 39 50 48 50 52 56 37 35 61 > 63 61 61 52 24 22 33 28 62 61 69 67 60 58 35 33 45 45 47 48 44 36 29 69 67 65 > 61 49 16 24 25 25 44 49 63 61 54 54 54 55 60 71 73 56 61 54 39 48 51 66 46 63 > 65 46 72 51 65 72 84 59 75 72 70 49 41 43 42 36 31 41 40 39 42 35 36 53 60 57 > 64 59 31 55 49 52 48 55 7 22 56 58 69 69 64 71 65 63 57 55 24 16 33 39 52 65 > 61 36 51 49 46 54 59 52 47 56 72 71 66 71 59 49 55 53 52 56 48 48 39 43 26 33 > 60 57 51 68 70 43 42 15 14 14 16 40 48 52 52 35 22 34 63 70 78 62 70 72 58 52 > 74 71 73 64 46 51 11 14 17 51 58 62 57 31 41 54 66 65 66 55 41 42 50 47 71 74 > 67 44 45 35 51 45 37 74 62 50 47 56 23 52 74 72 46 24 24 27 52 49 51 55 61 49 > 71 66 64 54 55 25 26 26 26 9 6 15 40 42 72 43 30 52 47 47 65 60 80 61 52 34 > 45 36 32 29 32 21 26 19 11 11 27 35 40 38 56 52 53 51 54 34 48 56 35 42 35 35 > 42 54 51 53 50 60 54 66 66 60 70 52 59 56 63 45 > > > 1931. 1998-11-06 08:43:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Nov 6 08:43:19 1998 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: Inquiries to: diane@moe.gov.lb Diane, Answers to your two questions: 1. You are right in idenitfying box (32.5-35N,33.75-37.5E) as the closest HadCM2 box for Lebanon (NOTE: this definition defines the edges of *one* box). This box is row 23 and column 11 in the HadCM2 grid layout, but remember that each row has 96 gridboxes (360/3.75). To identify the actual box number in the 7008 member array, you need to multiply 22(rows) by 96 = 2112 and then add 11 (i.e, the 11th column in row 23) which gives you 2123. If you use the *four* boxes you identified (and you might argue that for Lebanon that you should) then you need box numbers 2122, 2123, 2218, 2219. But you should note that boxes 2122 and 2218 are 'ocean' and the other two are 'land' in HadCM2. Your climate responses in the model will be quite different between ocean and land and really you only want the land response. 2. The choice of what forcing (0.5% or 1% pa) is just that - a choice. And who knows which rate of GHG will be realised. The IS92a scenario is about 1% pa. but IPCC never said IS92a was a best guess scenario - just one of 6 possibilities they identified. Current GHG concentration increase is about 0.7% to 0.8% p.a. My preference in any scenario and impatc study would be to choose both, i.e., explore the impacts of a low growth *and* and a high growth scenario. By the way, I am not aware that IPCC have ever said that GHG doubling by 2100 is the most likely. Regards, Mike At 14:55 05/11/98 +0200, you wrote: >Dear Dr. Hulme, >I thank you for your prompt response. However, your explanation was not >very clear. I am here informing you of the steps we have followed to >identify GCM values relevant to Lebanon: >- Lebanon's coordinates are: > 33deg3' - 34deg41' N and 35deg6'-36deg37' E >- The closest to these in the HADCM2 grid are: > 32.5 -35 N and 33.75 -37.5 E >- They correspond to HADCM2 coordinates : > 24-23 N and 10-11 E >- Since 96 longitudes x 73 latitudes = 7008 GCM output results, the >relevant grid box numbers have been obtained by multiplying x by y: >10x23=230 >10x24=240 >11x23=253 >11x24=264 >Therefore Lebanon lies at the corners of 4 boxes on the grid. > >The box number 2123 you proposed is way out of range according to my >method. >Please list the steps you followed to get this number or let me know >wether my method is correct. > >Another thing, we have chosen 1% CO2 increase which implies a doubling >of CO2 by the year 2070 but we have found unreasonnably high values of >temperature increase. ex:October minimal T increase listed values up to >8deg centigrade by the year 2020. >Would it be more suitable to choose 0.5 % CO2 increase with doubling >around the year 2130 bearing in mind that the doubling date specified by >IPCC guidelines is the year 2100? > >Thank you >Diane > > 3506. 1998-11-08 21:01:03 ______________________________________________________ cc: wigley@ncar.ucar.edu date: Sun, 8 Nov 1998 21:01:03 -0700 (MST) from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: global land precip. to: Mike Hulme Mike, Many thanks for the precip. data. When I compared the mm(sd) column with IPCC Fig. 3.11 (top panel) I found big differences in the individual annual values (plus IPCC only goes to 1994). Have you improved things? IPCC says that there is a 1% increase overall, which is clearly garbage. The apparent rend depends on the years before 1915: surely these are less reliable and represent poorer coverage? By the way, what paper can I cite for these data? Cheers, Tom, On Thu, 5 Nov 1998, Tom Wigley wrote: > Mike, > > I didn't get the attachment. Can you try again please? > > Thanx, > Tom > > On Thu, 5 Nov 1998, Mike Hulme wrote: > > > Tom, > > > > Attached is an output file from my regional precip. program. This contains > > annual precip. anomalies (wrt 1961-90) for global land areas derived from > > my 1900-1996 gridded (on HadCM2 grid) precip. dataset. > > > > The first block of data are diagnostics for the 1496 boxes contributing. > > > > The time series at the end of the file are for 1900-96 and show various > > methods of calculating anomaly series for precip. (see Jones and Hulme > > paper in IJC, 1996). > > > > The one is prefer is column 5 mm(sd) which are mm anomalies from the > > 1961-90 weighted mean of 989 mm. Column 2 are the number of boxes > > contributing each year. Column 3 is the conventional standardised anomaly > > index. > > > > These data are equivalent to those shown in Figure 3.11 (top panel) in IPCC > > 1996. There are only three such series in existence to my knowledge - > > mine, Dai et al. and the one from Karl/Peterson. Dave Easterling showed > > the latest version of their's at a recent meeting in Vienna so I know > > he/Tom have one. Dai has also published a version (JoC 1997), but this was > > based on inferior data and used a different (less robust) method. > > > > Regards, > > > > Mike > > > > > > > > > > > ********************************************************** > *Tom M.L. Wigley * > *Senior Scientist * > *National Center for Atmospheric Research * > *P.O. Box 3000 * > *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * > *USA * > *Phone: 303-497-2690 * > *Fax: 303-497-2699 * > *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * > ********************************************************** > > ********************************************************** *Tom M.L. Wigley * *Senior Scientist * *National Center for Atmospheric Research * *P.O. Box 3000 * *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * *USA * *Phone: 303-497-2690 * *Fax: 303-497-2699 * *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * ********************************************************** 2340. 1998-11-11 14:07:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 11 Nov 1998 14:07:35 -0500 from: Tony Socci (by way of mmaccrac@earth.usgcrp.gov \(Mike MacCracken\)) subject: COP-4 FCCC INDIGENOUS DECLARATION to: nainfo.teams@earth.usgcrp.gov FYI--This declaration was prepared by Native Peoples participating in the Albuquerque workshop. It has been forwarded to the COP-4 meeting in Buenos Aires. Mike >>Global climate change and warming issue. Indigenous voice. >>The Indigenous Peoples of the Turtle Island of North America recently >completed a four day gathering, "Circles of Wisdom," Native Peoples/Native >Homelands Climate Change Workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico within >what is known as the United States. The Indigenous Peoples of North America >sent over 180 delegates to share ideas on the impact of climate change and >climate variability on Indigenous Peoples and all life on Mother Earth. The >Indigenous Peoples worked together to offer solutions to reduce global >warming and contribute to the restoration of sustainable economies on Native >homelands for our future generations. >> >>This gathering was a historic gathering that enabled a meeting between the >Indigenous elders, governmental, environmental, educators and many other >community leaders and United States scientists involved in identifying the >impacts of climate change. Both advice and action were offered from >spiritual and scientific perspectives to restore balance to Mother Earth. >The gathering provided a teaching and reminder to the scientists working on >climate change issues that these things were foreseeen and global warming is >being caused by unsustainable technologies and developments throughout the >world. >>> >>>We have been delegated as an ad hoc group of the Indigenous Peoples in >attendance at this gathering to prepare and send the following ALBUQUERQUE >DECLARATION to appropriate contacts in attendance at the Conference of the >Parties Four (COPs-4) at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate >Change (FCCC) being held in Buenos Aries, Argentina, November 2-13, 1998. >We are requesting the FCCC allow a voice for Indigenous Peoples be added to >the global discussions on the impacts of climate imbalance to all life on >the sacred Mother Earth. >> >>On behalf of the delegates at this Albuquerque gathering (partial list of >delagates attached), we are sending this ALBUQUERQUE DECLARATION throughout >the world for global dissemination. The words within the PREAMBLE and other >parts of this declaration is a CALL FOR ACTION that the people of the world >must open their eyes to the dangerous situation ALL humans are in - if we >continue this path of unsustainable developments - we may not have a future >for our children. >> >>Oren Lyons, Faithkeeper, Chief, Onondaga Nation >>Tom "Mato Awanyankapi" Goldtooth, National Coordinator, Indigenous >Environmental Network (IEN) >>Patrick Spears, President, and Bob Gough, Secreatary, Intertribal Council >on Utility Policy (ICOUP) >>Jackie Warledo, Field Representative, International Indian Treaty Council >(IITC) >> >>*************************************************************************** >> >>THE ALBUQUERQUE DECLARATION >> >>FROM THE "CIRCLES OF WISDOM" NATIVE PEOPLES / NATIVE HOMELANDS CLIMATE >CHANGE WORKSHOP-SUMMIT, NOVEMBER 1, 1998,ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO >> >>TO BE PRESENTED TO THE CONFERENCES OF THE PARTIES FOUR (COP-4) OF THE >UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC), BUENOS, >AIRES, ARGENTINA, NOVEMBER 2-13, 1998 >> >> >>PREAMBLE >> >>As Indigenous Peoples, we begin each day with a prayer, bringing our minds >together in thanks for every part of the natural world. We are grateful >that each part of our natural world continues to fulfill the >responsibilities that have been set for it by our Creator, in an unbreakable >relationship to each other. As the roles and responsibilities are fulfilled, >we are allowed to live our lives in peace. We are grateful for the natural >order put in place and regulated by natural laws. >> >>Most of our ceremonies are about giving thanks, at the right time and in >the right way. They are what was given to us, what makes us who we are. They >enable us to speak about life itself. Maintaining our ceremonies is an >important part of our life. There is nothing more important than preserving >life, celebrating life, and that is what the ceremonies do. Our instruction >tells us that we are to maintain our ceremonies, however few of us there >are, so that we can fulfil the spiritual responsibilities given to us by the >Creator. >> >>The balance of men and women is the leading principle of our wisdom. This >balance is the creative principle of Father Sky and Mother Earth that >fosters life. In our traditions, it is women who carry the seeds, both of >our own future generations and of the plant life. It is women who plant and >tend the gardens, and women who bear and raise the children. The women >remind us of our connection to the earth, for it is from the earth that life >comes. >> >>We draw no line between what is political and what is spiritual. Our >leaders are also our spiritual leaders. In making any law, our leaders must >consider three things: the effect of their decisions on peace; the effect on >the natural order and law; and the effect on future generations. The natural >order and laws are self-evident and do not need scientific proof. We believe >that all lawmakers should be required to think this way, that all >constitutions should contain these principles. >> >>Our prophecies and teachings tell us that life on earth is in danger of >coming to an end. We have accepted the responsibility designated by our >prophecies to tell the world that we must live in peace and harmony and >ensure balance with the rest of Creation. The destruction of the rest of >Creation must not be allowed to continue, for if it does, Mother Earth will >react in such a way that almost all people will suffer the end of life as we >know it. >> >>A growing body of western scientific evidence now suggests what Indigenous >Peoples have expressed for a long time: life as we know it is in danger. We >can no longer afford to ignore the consequences of this evidence. We must >learn to live with this shadow, and always strive towards the light that >will restore the natural order. How western science and technology is being >used needs to be examined in order for Mother Earth to sustain life. >> >>Our Peoples and lands are a scattering of islands within a sea of our >neighbors, the richest material nations in the world. The world is beginning >to recognize that today's market driven economies are not sustainable and >place in jeopardy the existence of future generations. It is upsetting the >natural order and laws created for all our benefit. The continued >extraction and destruction of natural resources is unsustainable. >> >>There is a direct relationship between the denial of Indigenous Peoples >land and water rights, along with the appropriation without consent of >Indigenous Peoples' natural resources, and the causes of global climate >change today. Examples include deforestation, contamination of land and >water by pesticides and industrial waste, toxic and radioactive poisoning, >military and mining impacts. >> >>The four elements of fire, water, earth and air sustain all life. These >elements of life are being destroyed and misused by the modern world. Fire >gives life and understanding, but is being disrespected by technology of the >industrialized world that allows it to take life such as the fire in the >coal-fired powered plants, the toxic waste incinerators, the fossil-fuel >combustion engine and other polluting technologies that add to greenhouse >gases. Coal extraction from sacred earth is being used to fuel the >greenhouse gases that are causing global climate warming. >> >>Because of our relationship with our lands, waters and natural surroundings >which has sustained us since time immemorial, we carry the knowledge and >ideas that the world needs today. We know how to live with this land: we >have done so for thousands of years. We are a powerful spiritual people. It >is this spiritual connection to Mother Earth, Father Sky, and all Creation >that is lacking in the rest of the world. >> >>Our extended family includes our Mother Earth, Father Sky, and our brothers >and sisters, the animal and plant life. We must speak for the plants, for >the animals, for the rest of Creation. It is our responsibility, given to us >by our Creator, to speak on their behalf to the rest of the world. >> >>For the future of all the children, for the future of Mother Earth and >Father Sky, we call upon the leaders of the world, at all levels of >governments, to accept responsibility for the welfare of future generations. >Their decisions must reflect their consciousness of this responsibility and >they must act on it. We demand a place at the table in discussions that >involve and effect our future and the natural order and natural laws that >govern us. >> >>THEREFORE >> >>We, the participants in the "Circles of Wisdom" Native Peoples / Native >Homelands Climate Change Workshop, held in Albuquerque, New Mexico of the >United States, in the traditional territory of the Pueblo Peoples, express >profound concern for the well being of our sacred Mother Earth and Father >Sky and the potential consequences of climate imbalance for our Indigenous >Peoples and the significance of these consequences for our communities, our >environment, our economies, our culture and our relationships to the natural >order and laws. >> >>Indigenous prophecy now meets scientific prediction. What we have known and >believed, you also now know: The Earth is out of balance. The plants are >disappearing, the animals are dying, and the very weather --rain, wind, fire >itself -- reacts against the actions of the human being. For the future of >the children, for the health of our Mother Earth, Father Sky, and rest of >Creation, we call upon the people of the world to hold your leaders >accountable. >> >>We submit this declaration to the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-4) >to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) being >held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, November 2-13, 1998. We wish to add our >voices to ongoing global discussions regarding the impact of climate >imbalance on forests, oceans, plants, animals, fish, humans and biodiversity. >> >>PRINCIPLES >> >>The following principles are self-evident and guide our beliefs and actions. >> >>· Mother Earth, Father Sky, and all of Creation, from microorganisms to >human, plant, trees, fish, bird, and animal relatives are part of the >natural order and regulated by natural laws. Each has a unique role and is >a critical part of the whole that is Creation. Each is sacred, respected, >and a unique living being with its own right to survive, and each plays an >essential role in the survival and health of the natural world. >> >>· As sovereign Peoples and Nations, we have an inherent right to >self-determination, protected through inherent rights and upheld through >treaties and other binding agreements. As Indigenous Peoples, our consent >and approval are necessary in all negotiations and activities that have >direct and indirect impact on our lands, ecosystems, waters, other natural >resources and our human bodies. >> >>· Human beings are part of the natural order. Our role and responsibility, >as human beings, is to live peacefully and in a harmonious balance with all >life. Our cultures are based on this harmony, peace and ecological balance >which ensures long term sustainability for future generations. This concept >of sustainability must be the basis of the decisions and negotiations >underway on national and international levels. >> >>· The Creator has entrusted us a sacred responsibility to protect and care >for the land and all of life, as well as to safeguard its well being for >future generations to come. >> >>· Indigenous Peoples have the right and responsibility to control access to >our traditional knowledge, innovations and practices, which constitute the >basis for the maintenance of our lifestyles and future [The Draft >Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples]; >> >>CONCLUSIONS >> >>Indigenous Peoples of North America were invited by neither the United >States nor Canada to participate in the negotiations of the United Nations >Convention on Climate Change. >> >>In June 1997, more than 2,000 U.S. scientists, from over 150 countries, >including Nobel Laureates, signed the Scientists Statement on Global Climate >Disruption which reads, in part, the "accumulation of greenhouses gases >commits the sacred earth irreversibly to further global climate change and >consequent ecological, economic, social and spiritual disruption" >(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, December 1995). Climate >imbalance will cause the greatest suffering to the Indigenous peoples and >most pristine ecosystems globally. >> >>The migration of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) through the air and >water pathways continues from warmer southern climates to the colder >climates of the Great Lakes and Arctic climates of North America and the >Arctic Circle. Increased temperatures and persistent organic pollutants >(POPs) disproportionately impact indigenous Peoples, through their food web >systems, causing health and ecosystem impacts. >> >>Within the next 20 years, temperatures over land areas of North America, >Europe and Northern Asia will increase as much as 5 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit >over today's normal temperatures, well in excess of the global average (IPCC >Report 1998). This increase in temperature will cause the sea level to rise >(5-25 feet over the next 500 years), drying out North America's soil >moisture (20 - 50%), and result in major increases in the summer heat index >(10 - 25 degrees F). >> >>The burning of oil, gas, and coal ("fossil fuels") is the primary source of >human-induced climate change. The increasing demand and use of fossil fuels >continues to have adverse impacts on natural forests. Natural forests are >critical parts of the ecosystems that maintain global climate stability. The >continued large-scale taking of fossil fuels results in numerous impacts on >these vital areas through deforestation and pollution from drilling >operations and ultimately forest degradation from the global climate >imbalance. The mining and drilling for coal, oil, and gas, as well as other >mineral extractions, results in substantial local environmental >consequences, including severe degradation of air, forests, rivers, oceans >and farmlands. Cultural impacts, forced removal, land appropriation, >destruction of sacred and historical significant areas, breakdown of >Indigenous social systems, and violence against women and children are too >often the outcomes of fossil fuel development on Indigenous Peoples. Fossil >fuel extraction areas are home to some of Mother Earth's last and most >vulnerable Indigenous populations, resulting in accelerated losses of >biodiversity, traditional knowledge, and ultimately in ethnocide and genocide. >> >>ACTIONS >> >>We request that the potential consequences of climate imbalance for >Indigenous Peoples and our environments, economies, culture, place and role >in the natural order be addressed by: >> >>1. Establishing and funding an Inter-sessional Open-ended Working Group >for Indigenous Peoples within the Conference of the Parties (COPs) of the UN >Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC); >> >>2. Provisions for case studies be established within the framework of FCCC >that would allow for assessing how climate changes effect different regions >of Indigenous Peoples and local communities; assessing climate changes on >flora and fauna, freshwater and oceans, forestry, traditional agricultural >practices, medicinal plants and other biodiversity that impact subsistence >and land-based cultures of Indigenous Peoples; and other case studies that >would provide a clearer understanding of all effects and impacts of climate >change and warming upon Indigenous Peoples and local communities; >> >>3. Indigenous Peoples have the right, responsibility and expertise to >participate as equal partners at every level of decision-making including >needs assessments, case studies, within national and international >policy-making activities concerning climate change impacts, causes and >solutions; >> >>4. Within the FCCC, establish protocols that would actively promote >international energy efficient and sustainable forms of development, >including the widespread use of appropriately scaled solar energy and >renewable energy technologies as well as sustainable agricultural and >forestry practice models; >> >>5. Mandating a moratorium on new exploration and projects for extraction >for fossil fuel reserves in pristine areas. Exploration and development in >the traditional territories of Indigenous Peoples of the world must be done >with the full consent of Indigenous Peoples, respecting their right to >decline a project that may adversely impact them; >> >>6. Imposing a legally binding obligation to restore all areas already >affected by oil, gas, and coal exploration and exploitation by the >corporations or public entities that are responsible. This restoration must >be done such that Indigenous Peoples can continue traditional uses of their >lands. >> >> >> >>This is a partial list of additional Indigenous and non-Indigenous groups >signing in support of the Declaration. The following Indigenous Peoples and >Nations attended this Albuquerque Workshop-Summit and fully endorse this >declaration: >> >>Haudenosaunee Environmental Task Force - Mohawk, Oneida, Onondaga, Cayuga, >Seneca and Tuscarora Nations >>Native Coalition for Cultural Restoration of Mount Shasta and Medicine Lake >Highlands Defense >>Columbia River Alliance for Economic and Environmental Education >>International Movement Against All Forms of Discrimination and Racism >>International Indian Treaty Council >>Intertribal Council on Utility Policy >>Native American Council of New York City >>Seventh Generation Fund >>Roundtable of Institutions of People of Color >> >>Sapa Dawn Center >>Dine' Citizens Against Ruining the Environment (CARE) >> >>Anishinabe Niijii >>North American Indigenous Peoples Biodiversity Project >> >>Gwiichin Steering Committee >>Alaska Council of Indigenous Environmental Network >>Eastern Cherokee Defense League >>Great Lakes Regional Indigenous Environmental Network >> >>White Clay Society of Gros Ventre >>Oklahoma Regional Indigenous Environmental Network >>Shundahai Network >>American Indian Chamber of Commerce of New Mexico >>American Indian Law Alliance >> >>Traditional and Spiritual Leaders: >>Oren Lyons, Onondaga >>Kendall Rice, Potawatomi >>Arvol Looking Horse, Lakota >>Marvin Stevens, Kickapoo >>Tom Stillday Jr., Red Lake Ojibway >>Johnny Jackson, Yakama Cascade Band >>Corbin Harney, Western Shoshone >>Jake Swamp, Mohawk >>Albert Yazzie, Navajo >>Richard Dalton Sr, Tlingit >> >>Individuals: >>Tonya Goubella Frichuer, Onondaga >>Chuck Crowe, Eastern Band of Cherokee >>Kent Lebsock, Lakota >>Fidel Moreno, Yaqui/Huichol >>Carlon Ami, Hopi/Tewa >>Mary Defender-Wilson, Dakota/Hidatsa >>Jan Stevens, Sac & Fox >>Walt Bresette, Red Cliff Ojibwe >>Earl Tulley, Dine' >>Floyd Buckskin, Pitt River >>Andrew Becenti, Dine' >>Barbara Bernacik, Laguna Pueblo >>M.C. Balwin, Dine' >>Joseph Campbell, Dakota >>Elena Bautista Sparrow, Yujpik >>Joseph Chasing Horse, Lakota >>Charlotte Caldwell, Menominee >>Tami Soreson, Ojibwe >>Marylou Stillday, Ojibwe >>Sarah James, Neestaii Gwichin Athapascan >>Tom Goldtooth, Dine'/Dakota >>Michael Sturdevant, Menominee >>Jose Barrero, Taino >>James Main, Sr, Gros Ventre >>Roy Taylor, Pawnee/Choctow >>Barbara McCloud, Puyallup >>Valerie Taliman, Dine' >>Janet McCloud, Tulalip >>Wilbur Slockish Jr, Yakama Klickitat Band >>Dana Mitchell, Penobscot >>James Ransom, Haudenesaunee >>Robert Shimek, Ojibwe >>Jimbo Simmons, Choctow >>Patrick Spears, Lakota >>Carlos Pelayo, Yoreme >>Dean Suagee, Oklahoma Band of Cherokee >>Angel Valencia, Yaqui >>Mose Walkingstick, Eastern Band of Cherokee >>Geraldine Warledo, Cheyenne/Arapaho >>Jackie Warledo, Seminole >>Debbie Tewa, Hopi >> >>This is a partial list. >> >> >>For more information contact: >> >Indigenous Environmental Network - National Office >P.O. Box 485 >Bemidji, Minnesota 56619-0485 USA >Phone: (218) 751-4967 >Fax: (218) 751-0561 >e-mail: ien@igc.apc.org >Web Site: http://www.alphacdc.com/ien > >"An alliance of Indigenous Peoples protecting the sacredness of Mother Earth >and building sustainable communities." > 4639. 1998-11-11 16:23:17 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Nov 11 16:23:17 1998 from: Keith Briffa to: m.salmon@uea >Return-path: >Envelope-to: f023@cpca11.uea.ac.uk >Delivery-date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 03:37:33 +0100 >Original-Received: by > kintra.krasnoyarsk.su (/\oo/\ Smail3.1.29.1 #29.2) > with Taylor UUCP v1.06 Sat, 17 Oct 98 10:24 KRSK >PP-warning: Illegal Received field on preceding line >To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk >Organization: Institute of Forest >From: Eugene Vaganov >Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:09:48 +0400 (MSD) >From: From >Lines: 1489 > >trwcrn.rwm >Tree-ring widths (TRW) chronology: > >-------------------------------------------------------------------- >Ident., Trees, Inent. N (trees) > No. No. >-------------------------------------------------------------------- >1) 118 all living and dead 2209-years chronology >2)* 4 MAY,925,927,928, CHA044 >3)* 1 CHA-H1 >4)* 1 MAY702 >5)* 1 NOV001 >6)* 1 CHA-H6 >7)* 1 NOV078 >8)* 1 NOV-A02 >9)* 1 CHA005 >10)* 1 NOV029 >11)* 5 CHA060,012,009,017,001 >--------------------------------------------------------------------- >* - calibrated radiocarbon age > >1) all living and dead 2209-years chronology > 2209=N -212=I 1) 118 samples -5(13F6.0)~ > 23000 24000 42000 14000 27000 21000 13000 28000 20000 30000 38000 65000 58000 > 54000 66000 65000 16000 55000 46000 56000 53000 68000 29000 21000 48000 15000 > 29000 25000 32000 22000 31000 29000 18000 27000 53000 41000 35000 47000 66000 > 89000 52000 28000 34000 39000 33000 25000 28000 36000 32000 43000 47000 63000 > 49000 49000 50000 56000 40000 42000 46500 65000 28000 30500 55000 40500 44500 > 24500 24500 50500 6500 22500 39000 37000 54000 30000 47500 41000 23000 52000 > 56000 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17875 40687 38680 42653 4189 15048 13883 > 31267 30324 8534 19704 27760 28691 32492 52563 38623 37560 27673 33206 25809 > 42342 53294 36139 40726 48492 45376 34414 24610 35000 20567 34436 15964 36710 > 32282 31438 38330 35359 34186 40505 38729 11085 23307 29585 45856 30278 35038 > 28031 61066 71654 75101 44821 39539 5015 23301 32435 16773 42902 38394 35250 > 38140 50031 34522 47063 39538 37625 44671 19419 26965 49777 39253 37798 39380 > 60435 32630 31485 47937 32777 43802 30784 47142 37691 30497 28847 43470 41648 > 37101 40726 16574 33858 35558 42346 32535 35480 39239 19817 17962 40171 19816 > 37158 48680 26345 38391 56809 20909 43281 26427 28300 10520 11234 37255 28329 > 33247 37494 15393 17142 30050 24568 30868 25822 26042 29408 8962 34690 23488 > 22172 23157 30993 11397 34005 23622 34032 29107 33019 39124 10729 45917 29799 > 21484 11154 19750 10963 25793 29698 16148 30739 40478 28837 11405 28409 42056 > 28589 36331 30851 14922 29795 35541 30907 29046 30087 31996 24960 10172 22222 > 47286 32457 29091 29240 24873 14528 23808 17266 29730 13252 16810 11011 21315 > 17198 20894 28959 19943 11296 13434 9382 17430 13696 25412 27865 23093 7885 > 13852 25494 22304 5032 21311 21766 32202 24233 32537 34665 21149 4541 17197 > 21595 10014 17248 23052 9932 26619 24058 31319 24079 32681 26048 23140 12880 > 14733 33067 20015 18721 29651 26843 21754 30090 35288 33385 22382 30894 14728 > 26071 25792 23771 32227 27265 24298 26117 10108 33626 11545 13202 32819 20454 > 20939 12584 32712 11446 29923 24529 21244 2000 29325 10270 18780 14979 29992 > 17247 22835 19369 36933 31079 14026 18997 22716 11568 16741 26364 20229 24592 > 20948 24879 29982 19867 19478 31888 17419 22989 28106 21737 4936 12040 15016 > 18961 5235 18167 24849 18367 27222 23919 14306 20386 33748 14910 22044 19999 > 22210 27410 29148 38037 12635 33100 44025 36026 9169 22049 10997 26327 23360 > 15028 14360 25476 19163 18067 32330 14489 31136 28690 24305 13269 27592 35264 > 13291 29446 26123 19894 18688 21564 28586 40368 33895 36981 22843 28835 25897 > 31387 15225 17297 21077 21867 12440 14398 19166 13061 11008 20385 14993 7768 > 23283 20160 17045 26833 22701 26387 23256 27723 21111 32775 7176 14600 6560 > 4525 15770 14353 9099 15162 24470 36183 31308 31823 19556 30681 26487 20038 > 29204 35066 17925 36458 32013 32462 8064 28601 25226 27308 24907 17930 24206 > 28880 26326 46087 11387 42678 40037 31112 25112 32453 36598 19521 23389 36012 > 27063 36490 35092 22232 9785 37702 38043 30604 35077 43926 47220 41646 34102 > 26212 39082 25302 17634 23170 24958 41060 25989 17794 6167 29321 25024 31646 > 23853 40694 40252 44804 27458 47022 24027 27829 24725 8566 25765 37958 26832 > 44567 34530 16105 27248 26055 34928 27453 39903 34871 26434 37469 24709 39487 > 30218 22976 28462 41952 49108 25851 32901 22448 18331 29066 10315 28571 29070 > 32664 32870 28318 40625 10357 35280 25849 23649 19720 8395 12389 17508 13577 > 16774 11858 18736 6479 12156 19628 23655 22221 18061 6689 17556 20901 29764 > 30796 7261 32870 14236 5948 23671 27600 21503 20273 15348 15678 27342 22366 > 27979 21643 19756 20343 27883 18753 21325 9415 21976 11436 37690 27274 28101 > 25355 33940 30386 34422 25320 52582 45733 36687 35368 37902 42693 22233 16666 > 45695 7105 21338 22127 26892 13168 12589 29874 19946 38389 42508 38118 44281 > 34808 34262 42548 20033 17134 18463 34504 32362 18734 22133 37281 30119 18316 > 28807 26584 45163 45681 23834 13205 14869 29485 27289 22233 23254 13266 19679 > 17399 43549 17745 22862 19067 10631 18321 26515 32895 29419 28948 38780 37180 > 30926 21697 33762 31089 41763 25857 40686 14920 39838 35513 36599 27497 43523 > 38081 35011 32143 40349 36135 43614 51856 50396 67195 57225 61241 41440 65260 > 48097 28219 48738 24261 40273 29658 36309 51236 32544 40954 36983 33193 27788 > 32247 29070 28358 30658 23016 35060 22024 25796 37168 21417 28881 28177 23317 > 24240 15012 13238 22566 26812 17797 23989 38457 13285 22011 26412 25138 40011 > 18164 32288 21720 33763 9829 29992 21171 21000 10000 24000 12000 19000 > >2) MAY,925,927,928, CHA044 > 296=N -670=I 2) 4 samples (MAY925,927,928, CHA044) -5(13F6.0)~ > 42000 76000 35000 37000 35000 27000 47000 24000 95000105000128000 94000102000 > 51000 37000 26000 38000 30000 35000 20000 37000 19000 16000 39000 50000 44000 > 78000 44000 69000 79000 66000 31000 55000 32000 34000 17000 51000 22750 26000 > 55000 55250 43500 37750 28250 61250 33750 55500 28750 51750 38500 42000 22250 > 39250 46750 41750 32500 39250 23000 34000 15000 22750 3250 9250 21000 24250 > 15250 26500 13250 15500 33750 50750 27500 9750 48000 67500 71500 70500 54500 > 59000 54500 44750 31000 23250 42250 26250 44750 54750 56000 44750105500 44000 > 33250 43250 30750 47250 40750 34000 33750 50750 59250 43500 72000 42000 35250 > 42500 37500 47750 51000 84750 47000 73000 28500 59000 56750 46000 58000 28000 > 23500 16000 13500 25500 27000 49500 31500 58000 80000 83000 73000 35500 74750 > 43750 16750 12000 43000 27750 24750 26250 45250 43250 35250 38000 49500 35000 > 14250 41000 44000 36500 39000 16750 54750 60250 65500 54250 36750 57250 63778 > 58250 88583 83250 72250 97563117313 75875 75750 76250 38000 85563 82938 92500 > 77313 98125 28250 33313 51688 42063 73438 49938 92375 32563 65125 48188 55125 > 51688 63250 48125 82688 57188 99813 74313 63750 85625 39063 58563 87750 77438 > 19063 79563 58750 35063 47750 36188 56750 63125 65938 49917 91833 41833 60833 > 55917 94083 58083 66417 84167 84250115167102750103417 52583 72333 52000 86917 > 92167 58167 37750 41583 43000 40333 65417 43750 58667 18667 34250 52667 77583 > 46917 48417 37583 54500 45833 64417 41000 28167 44417 39000 33500 23111 7167 > 27667 40000 14500 13833 34500 20667 28833 35333 36000 16167 29667 32667 28500 > 23167 32833 33667 21167 29500 18167 23500 29333 23167 19167 18750 14750 12750 > 27250 19500 19000 12250 8250 21000 24000 7000 21000 26000 28500 24000 18000 > 10500 21000 9000 10000 7000 8000 16000 3000 13000 8000 > >3) CHA-H1 > 306=N -1398=I 3) 1 sample (CHA-H1) -3(20F4.0)~ > 710 520 595 790 500 760 775 425 640 410 295 115 295 405 335 305 245 575 465 365 >11701070 710 630 430 315 615 640 625 540 365 310 755 295 665 550 460 90 565 735 > 905 310 755 425 660 590 690 640 765 770 640 405 645 475 595 490 705 480 760 840 > 375 415 675 650 650 390 770 935 815 465 660 705 980 645 595 920 715 280 490 400 > 925 7501015 890 740 9201085 595 685 755 440 260 450 160 215 430 235 515 695 505 > 300 605 395 530 120 60 420 500 480 260 510 485 420 515 765 475 395 675 265 475 > 455 465 740 690 280 705 670 795 480 465 455 940 5551210 855 805 740 790 85 465 > 405 340 615 735 280 115 510 685 610 165 280 500 765 760 960 685 715 385 300 555 > 325 365 235 305 55 215 410 415 600 65 415 315 130 35 200 135 500 295 360 330 > 510 415 755 765 490 305 185 145 45 225 315 215 335 325 200 165 270 255 305 280 > 315 160 410 345 415 340 325 385 340 185 405 100 365 250 315 320 415 355 125 410 > 425 235 270 540 415 340 470 295 525 375 385 235 320 320 125 175 140 80 155 225 > 265 255 50 30 170 150 80 50 135 80 65 230 285 430 295 195 245 340 245 255 > 285 405 290 395 390 450 250 400 225 250 385 325 285 400 325 315 475 170 85 55 > 95 235 180 290 235 400 495 585 640 465 280 510 350 740 5601100 930 380 400 580 > 350 650 500 540 510 580 > >4) MAY702 > 270=N -2456=I 4) 1 sample (MAY702) -2(26F3.0)~ > 83 71101 76 62 66 89124144164 11 95 99 74 70 78 85122 55178202161102130153109 >123128153124147152 68173 97131147134111 94 80106 55 72 98 22 58 28 66 76 36 73 > 2 65 27 32 48 43 56 39 18 43 33 17 33 36 30 31 15 39 28 37 33 27 23 32 30 16 > 29 21 17 25 29 18 35 35 36 15 28 25 26 23 21 26 25 16 14 16 21 31 26 2 20 16 > 30 32 26 23 25 40 9 20 35 41 17 12 20 17 13 26 18 25 13 29 20 12 23 15 14 10 > 10 19 11 15 12 17 12 10 16 9 10 2 18 14 10 16 5 13 5 4 9 7 12 10 19 21 > 13 16 14 32 6 16 27 18 14 9 18 7 11 21 17 11 13 5 16 14 21 17 14 12 14 19 > 16 18 15 21 22 17 13 26 4 21 7 9 14 7 23 26 29 8 15 17 13 18 13 12 12 12 > 13 16 16 16 7 21 6 7 4 16 18 5 10 11 9 24 9 18 13 10 11 7 3 12 5 9 > 11 7 11 10 12 40 34 9 16 2 10 13 13 2 8 5 2 6 3 9 2 8 4 6 8 10 > 6 3 14 6 13 9 6 2 5 9 > >5) NOV001 > 246=N -2923=I 5) 1 sample (NOV001) -2(26F3.0)~ > 2 24 4 46 49 46 31 20125114115 71 33115148130 81 58 75107104 57119179106182 >169117127160187162143170102174 60112 93 34 17 72 76 86100 94109125137 62104133 >139 89 99 61 92 40 94 67 16 93 86136 90 60 60 40 78 79 79133 74 81120159 82103 > 70 52 72 36 83 65 39108 68 79142127 56 83116138133 62 71 51 77 49113128103158 >106 51 54 71 88 70149 60 14 26 43 23 89 35 64100 84 67108 78 48 52 44 22 52 52 > 57 13 64 29 43 22109 71 47 37 89 74 93 82 29 52 50 34 64 53 16 8 32 19 38 18 > 20 46 40 36 49 15 17 47 43 15 19 31 49 26 29 36 19 25 53 8 36 35 52 46 22 29 > 26 43 31 42 22 14 46 48 17 30 49 17 60 51 48 43 32 42 33 21 21 13 28 24 20 38 > 40 73 37 36 41 48 47 13 73 28 45 24 46 18 34 33 13 59 21 38 51 22 28 24 31 28 > 25 17 10 10 16 23 14 26 14 20 11 18 > >6) CHA-H6 > 345=N -3178=I 6) 1 sample (CHA-H6) -2(26F3.0)~ > 71 90 55 99 41 94 87138157143113 98188184168144147136 66 91 65 26 95 87 62 58 > 93 21 50106 79 61 68 50 85 21101 68 96 73 94 84 65 71 78 46 91 81 79 64 73 33 > 49 39 71 42 82102 67 23 26 49 11 55 60 71103 91 65 61 68 38 42 47 42 50 33 37 > 63 50 62 90104 87 26 58 72 52 17 9 32 22 18 44 67 78 40 76 29 62 63 57 29 4 > 20 31 30 16 31 51 55 52 42 28 15 50 72 58 73 59 71 67 34 29 48 29 51 41 61 20 > 31 11 34 43 40 31 45 19 44 39 48 56 29 41 11 40 44 30 40 27 32 58 5 81 18 16 > 31 6 38 6 44 67 15 52105 63 97 67 33 29 43 47 87 70 39 76 63 79 54 83 33 43 > 57 4 24 55 85 68 72 75 40 44 27 42 29 54 67 43 47 31 33 19 4 20 26 34 38 47 > 13 17 30 24 38 5 20 19 15 12 29 19 43 25 24 31 4 20 19 20 3 34 2 52 26 42 > 28 46 31 42 36 17 31 6 28 34 64 35 33 34 7 22 14 31 7 22 5 20 7 15 4 15 > 13 2 37 24 8 22 34 32 19 27 31 56 27 2 28 10 21 37 18 20 9 27 18 27 9 7 > 1 11 5 27 26 36 52 40 50 42 14 23 4 25 10 38 26 40 56 35 72 38 74 80 32 42 > 39 20 14 28 25 8 23 28 23 44 29 54 79 28 29 36 39 45 86 94 11 51 8 3 28 5 > 13 15 11 6 18 1 26 > >7) NOV078 > 299=N -3358=I 7) 1 sample (NOV078) -2(26F3.0)~ > 55 86139 68 20 40136142152115153161154170 95134136113106101 83119184 81166118 > 92 18 78160117118 84 90132114 43112123 60 52 34 30 30 8 52 9 21 30 13 49 3 > 58 52 18 25 22 33 24 60 27 44 32 39 18 33 43 60 72 81 75 67116 87 25 81 38 41 > 41 71 80 93 53 34 78 67 75 82 48 66 18 49 36 41 21 6 10 44 90 53 23 63 98 33 > 68 83 50104 88 70 66 60 82 65 41 80 88111 41 45 48 60 29 47 46 50 58 73 50 90 > 39 73 46 68 27 68 93 55 51 83 80 40 43 72 23 40 77 86 91 60 67 47 20 20 32 50 > 32 37 41 30 31 30 23 19 40 12 27 46 56 58 31 30 20 16 33 30 48 25 22 36 41 50 > 24 42 28 20 46 44 19 18 25 23 22 8 37 42 25 6 22 10 20 18 25 29 20 22 23 13 > 17 18 36 20 33 32 6 25 26 37 37 33 16 27 38 18 45 41 29 44 42 57 27 53 17 16 > 32 17 7 20 22 20 17 22 7 14 7 18 16 6 18 25 24 19 34 14 14 17 15 10 29 24 > 40 53 10 47 29 15 35 27 39 32 22 63 28 49 50 64 47 21 34 9 29 27 12 21 34 20 > 43 31 34 31 32 14 41 59 42 34 25 33 24 > >8) NOV-A02 > 286=N -3457=I 8) 1 sample (NOV-A02) -5(13F6.0)~ > 83000 84500 67500 62000 50500 64500106500 96500 75500 82500 83000 83000 84500 > 94000 73000 73000 64500 72000 75500 94000 93000 52667 66667 56333 53000 57000 > 35333 46000 8000 5500 24000 32500 30000 19000 22000 37000 27500 37500 22500 > 29500 33000 32500 54500 70500 42000 61000 69000 84000 68000 73500 52000 70500 > 77000 91000112500 59000 14500 80000 47000 74500 64000116500 56500 88000 89500 > 54500 56000 83000 58000 21000 67500 86500 85500 97000 86000 94500109000 70500 > 65500 52000 82500 50500 39500 48500 49500 55000 54500 57000 47500 45000 66000 > 77000 78000 76000 54000 68000 58500 21000 28000 14500 46500 29000 48500 37000 > 41500 19000 28000 29500 31000 38500 22000 11500 28500 25500 28000 27500 34000 > 22000 30000 62500 49500 38500 38000 47000 43000 46500 39500 39000 44000 40500 > 45500 38500 74500 38500 42000 22500 30000 46000 41000 22500 37000 31500 19500 > 4000 12500 26000 32000 43000 37500 43000 53000 72500 62500 46000 58500 7000 > 25500 40500 51000 64000 89000 70000 81000 47500 77500 20500 70000 84000 71000 > 76000 56000 54500 76500 59500 35000 51000 62500 39500 41500 28500 48000 23000 > 25500 28500 36000 4000 21000 20000 13500 6500 12500 5500 21000 14500 21500 > 14000 5000 12500 2000 32500 28000 26500 29000 9000 29000 37500 22500 14000 > 41000 22000 1500 5000 23000 11500 19000 20000 26000 24000 29000 15000 11500 > 28000 21500 26500 42000 22000 22000 8500 22000 18000 8500 7500 16500 20500 > 30500 18500 39500 22000 17000 28500 21000 30000 49500 35500 54000 34500 65500 > 53000 55500 44500 43500 75000 76000 56000 63500 39500 37000 10500 38000 48000 > 53000 67500 82000 71000 89500103500 85500 83000107000 67000105500117500 78000 >123000139500 97500122000 99500 78500 60000 69000 76000 66500 67500 44500 11000 > >9) CHA005 > 198=N -3513=I 9) 1 sample (CHA005) -2(26F3.0)~ > 28 66 47 28 20 50 50 36 44 38 29 38 25 22 19 17 10 18 9 16 9 10 16 19 18 19 > 13 14 16 12 10 22 17 17 23 34 38 40 37 67 92 56 41 52 60 47 57 52 77100 90103 > 80 49 50 56 38 47 34 44 25 31 47 65 94 91 39 29 62 40 60 44 34 33 43 41 49 34 > 63 56 38 43 44 41 33 38 37 38 48 30 46 31 15 13 16 30 41 43 51 50 43 56 69 67 > 30 37 52 59 43 44 53 43 64 52 40 47 17 34 35 35 52 26 32 52 43 44 16 10 37 44 > 28 39 33 39 38 56 27 58 33 58 79 67 38 24 38 30 38 39 44 19 34 32 28 25 29 27 > 25 30 57 55 40 34 47 49 51 37 34 35 24 17 28 35 43 38 56 62 88 79 81 69 85 38 > 60 73 78 52 73 38 53 81109121 93 85124116145141 > >10) NOV029 > 306=N -3634=I 10) 1 sample (NOV029) -2(26F3.0)~ >129159235264201202138213132154 98111136129125115106 62100126101107108104175111 > 43 15 47 53 54108 83119 57 64 81 71 74 44 30 72 82 43 38 82 43 41117 98 98102 > 68 74 88 57 47 78 61 94124168 58 41 32 51 45 44 33 37 35 33 19 62 51 65 78132 > 77 90 94 79 60 60 21 16 8 21 57 61 45 67 47 64 21 53 58 59 86 50 62 60 52 27 > 74 73 76 61 52 67 45 30 27 25 17 12 11 2 12 9 29 12 23 17 9 18 2 35 17 31 > 58 41 67 50 52 22 60 40 13 42 28 31 46 60 34 37 23 31 55 32 59 53 27 37 18 36 > 23 27 27 13 8 34 35 24 23 27 20 13 28 33 17 42 31 37 32 35 38 35 35 52 42 54 > 33 35 36 45 19 20 20 18 32 33 26 46 30 53 24 55 25 46 57 39 35 69 55 37 42 41 > 22 34 59 51 49 53 67 46 19 26 47 45 45 60 46 25 39 47 38 24 47 21 30 46 34 57 > 30 18 21 18 39 28 34 21 26 26 15 32 16 29 25 13 33 28 29 17 25 14 31 14 39 37 > 33 3 23 5 25 13 19 25 14 26 31 13 7 8 36 15 22 21 3 20 19 24 24 23 13 17 > 35 18 26 24 13 31 30 37 17 23 17 10 16 12 7 21 13 12 9 9 > >11) CHA060,012,009,017,001 > 685=N -3964=I 11) 5 samples (CHA060,012,009,017,001) -5(13F6.0)~ > 29500 20500 15000 24000 33000 36500 10000 11000 12500 13500 10500 5500 7000 > 7000 10000 4500 3000 6500 9500 16000 13000 16000 5500 7000 9000 11000 > 13500 22000 15000 15500 13500 12500 4500 6000 7000 9000 21000 23000 42000 > 14000 17000 5000 5000 14000 22000 21000 17000 15000 12000 15000 17000 16000 > 10500 10000 15000 6000 22000 8500 17500 15000 34000 27000 12500 9500 14000 > 14000 13500 9500 15500 17000 9000 5000 8000 8000 8000 9000 7500 4500 > 7500 12500 15000 26500 19000 20500 32000 39500 23500 35000 29000 27000 19000 > 21000 20500 22500 24500 26500 23500 41500 32500 43000 56000 33000 44000 77000 > 45500 59000 29000 55500 35500 24000 41500 51500 48000 44500 42500 48500 33000 > 26500 22000 30500 30500 32000 50500 40000 29000 11000 19000 21000 13500 25500 > 25500 30000 5000 5500 18500 6500 31000 14000 35000 32500 15000 42000 50500 > 57000 22500 50000 57000 53000 64099 21470 9631 18304 35842 46483 57075 55743 > 62066 81774 72528 56319 37556 34971 50015 39598 21283 53422 56443 68633 77002 > 39117 41629 35335 29859 38102 46170 39393 53294 51532 57480 43041 48908 45052 > 22796 30368 71920 47418 38804 16721 18342 30597 39246 54877 44497 63724 47343 > 56569 41014 35417 57015 38640 55746 40256 38815 28450 28771 35747 40459 40367 > 43102 37881 33733 53481 52421 41144 57534 49544 62108 48135 32065 49386 40716 > 19883 31000 43000 54000 65000 30000 19000 53000 34000 31000 51000 38000 30000 > 39000 54000 31000 41000 24000 5000 26000 30000 37000 28000 27000 36000 52000 > 51000 83000 94000 57000 27000 28000 40000 34000 53000 47000 35000 30000 51000 > 60000 53000 45000 26000 22000 15000 47000 40000 41000 36000 29000 41000 32000 > 30000 46000 28000 21000 44000 47000 61000 26000 39000 31000 23000 27000 34000 > 17000 17000 14000 22000 26000 27000 42000 39000 37143 36479 34282 15973 46985 > 41586 45817 35541 34462 33297 57851 38141 39830 58005 52402 64245 61268 95274 > 77879 79103 44527 73461 67818 51382 66915 48836 58044 48542 60188 50493 34297 > 21814 30343 27318 19330 31028 37674 22448 25890 20938 27414 34284 36175 22814 > 22155 18932 34119 28429 46027 39944 28606 37674 58716 57737 33924 59131 47706 > 67784 57924 47264 56184 23589 35398 50320 59990 41211 56298 48331 56917 46614 > 60352 73078100871 72100100826 46340 71674 67785 70748 65034 57059 83787 82437 > 97654102262 97603 96917110019 72257 67592 83499 86173107194 53370 83050 71618 > 72105 62601 70925 75670 71983 92814 83718 69543 58714 54920 59474 43291 66602 > 48121 79532 69034 25023 50577 63493 77587 77307 56182 45723 67844 49108 75721 > 46890 84507 77881 70337 46438 52629 60915 50684 57532 58031 43993 32527 61223 > 52640 49079 42544 53483 61960 79030 66823 73806 32689 35046 18242 62750 55673 > 61686 52388 77760 33551 53130 63936 65666 51292 68383 50993 61192 60891 43838 > 56876 51626 58651 36797 26491 52839 38990 52762 33637 22651 49848 53290 66765 > 72486 53265 79909 30593 34434 40624 45162 24607 27409 45092 66972 71704 67281 > 33133 53007 43198 57953 62357 38773 42726 57282 60859 38621 38300 31630 48192 > 51651 34748 43513 36436 50128 54668 29234 31987 36751 31569 37721 13337 42200 > 40125 59482 44299 19273 30587 26770 18675 28352 53830 37686 33647 20975 22003 > 24719 35767 26587 26669 18037 25899 19415 22622 31868 31603 11966 28692 25282 > 11026 24117 27808 12843 15031 12381 21029 14078 17673 24989 21396 13818 36290 > 32305 30660 18314 40216 43074 55488 30400 52655 48880 80052 64740 40598 78201 > 38192 61936 43419 22177 17147 17388 5300 24236 32535 13552 16430 13265 21525 > 11911 36666 10407 31224 29079 21922 39323 27000 26000 45000 41000 55000 41000 > 57893 51388 45397 21782 37218 35585 31277 19650 31069 5221 17963 30678 39867 > 11885 34455 16000 12500 12500 31000 47500 19000 33500 24500 13000 42000 29000 > 17000 44000 37000 34500 31500 55500 28500 32500 32000 25500 17000 26000 29000 > 10500 27000 34000 32000 14000 11000 24000 27000 8000 14000 10000 16000 24000 > 18000 26000 20500 26000 35500 48500 42500 38000 43500 29500 32500 44000 47000 > 56000 55000 74500 66000 67000 80000 31000 52000 64000 81000 34000 39000 17000 > 43000 29000 61000 60000 47000 65000 79000114000 22000 68000 59000113000 54000 >103000106000110000 58000 82000107000133000180000178000 > >tem-rcs.rwm >Temperature reconstructed: >1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology >2) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology (5-years moving average) >3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology (5-years moving average) > >1) Early summer temperature reconstructed, RCS-RES chronology > 2072=N -77=I TJJ -4(13F6.0)~ >150043131332106186 94108 55646 60349 66041119600 86633105443 73367 90395 86782 >117175117224102770101186 98365116284103958 74753 94355 75545106681103513 82673 > 95246111730 74902 91385117818 77971 77228104255107077 48370 92672109750 93019 > 95197 84505 85990103166104602 81089 59210111680 63814 83614128906111334 82673 > 70942 52181110096 87623 92177 87623 73565 82475 94058 92969 76634 66437 86039 > 72971 84208 77228 99058 81683 88564 90890 68665103562 92771104008 87970 67279 > 74753 93910 99701117719 67031 44410 91930 77575 83911 78119 85594 95345 91138 > 83564 55795 92128105196 82426 97919 92524 45944109750 79654 73268 93712 71041 > 93316 82921104057 66338 61735117719 72377 62576112423 62972 76931 72724 78367 > 80693 95741 86782 81188 79505 71437 64358107324 83218 77872 81485 84950 93118 > 98662 81634 82624 87277 70348 86089 87227 84257110047 75100 86485 74951 91583 > 64804 96830 63913 94108 94108 75595 92672101335 82030 87227106928 86287 68566 > 80792113017117521 89851 95147 79010 75446101137 90742104849109205 64556 79505 > 90742 95296 76486 90544120244104503 93068 69308 85940 69259 92029110789103909 > 80050 48469105592 90148 55894119551103958 66190 85346 81386109057100097 81931 >100048 85198102919105097107423 75991 79010111631 92029 89851132965111581115442 >110245 75842 49112 89851 93167108611 55993 62032 73714104057 90395 84752 97721 >103414 91435 80000108364 86138 94058 81733 93761 82574104701 86831126778109700 > 85594107869 51736122422107324 75149 53320 86039101038 73664102671102028 96236 > 45004101236 74555 77278103463 78515113858 82129 81485106730 43816 63022 72823 > 95939103166102968 68714 92326 73417 86485 91979 87524 68962 97226 95246 96286 > 74060 86386 75743 66437 97177 68368 77674 91930100988112076 70744 75298 80495 > 54310 78713101285 70397101582 78416 80198 62873101978 85247 77179 74456116977 >107522 73615 82723 88960 80000110987 64309 90247 86930 99652 79852 61487 90395 >124303113561 75347 92524 64556 96781 74357103166 92771 80792107374 95890109997 > 83911135143125590112472112522108760 49756 70546112522102770101434 99157 69259 > 95395 77674 95840101830111136 69209 95147111581 98959155240 36490120095127718 > 94702 90544107819 75347110591 57131108463103859162071104552105245 84901 74506 >100246 72130 69506 80396136975 78713 88762103265105245113809 68962 48766120739 > 77525 57923 89702110740112126 81832100394100147 99652 80891 86435103661100345 >113611 94256 83069101434 85000 86089 91534 59606 73318115393 64408111829105196 > 97127109057110294 77179 47776 79010115294 76783104354 97573 98860 84950 44707 > 88366108413 65150107720103067 89009 95197 86534 47083 71635101533100394 66982 > 70249105740 95692 94900 97523 73912 82871 58814 92969116977107423108562116927 >113561 77327 71041 96187 54805128857 72872 86584 86237 79109 95098 96830109502 > 63368115789 44360101978 90692102374109552109552 98612 79406 77179 79060 78961 >117373105443 64556 87623135589105592 91435 97028 60200123164 62824110789111532 > 70051 99157 98315 93662 60745108562 75595103265 79307 72476103810124204128461 >102028102473 94504 77822 52379 97375 95147114155101533 51488109997 76139131728 > 63913 95890 72625116977 93316 93860 63418133658 85396117422114205 94405 83218 > 81040 92375 93959 99602 85940101384 74060112621 85099 94256 89059113611 94949 > 77971 89405 99652135292 51488 77426 94900102424 86386 67328 82525 84158 96434 > 96187 93316 77723 76931 89554 78218 93415 83812 88811118759 97127109552104305 > 97573 94652 82277 77575 97919 96385 62675 90940112175 90643 79753 86188 66734 > 72872 87574 70249 81139 82228 98414 81337100691 66833 77723 92672 85742 97721 > 63071 99602 81436 82376 82624103315 78020105641 81782 88960102374 76040107374 >105889 94652 68764104156102869 73565104948 45845 96880 79555113215118066 56092 >121432101384 34955 55795 76436105146 79753 67675 98464 60299 78119 73664 85297 >101335 93118 87425 74753 84851 59111 92474114106 82228 90643 96286 88861119254 >104453 87029 82327 98068117719 91682 74110 92078 70249128263127916 64853100493 > 70843 83812101830131480 70100108859116878104354 97969 60596124550100741103909 >119600 81782113561 72229116185 99602119600 76139111185120491 60002 78812 80990 > 44756109601106087104503 85544 90346113611 98959 83861110096107869 72130104255 > 81040 68714 96385108017106483 93613 87772 68764117373 56389118759 78763 89356 > 84950115096 49013 75298 88168 93811 79555105839 89999 86683 92672 58963 84703 >104701 89702101335 76486 88861 70843103067 83218 95543 88564 76436 95098 91435 > 78416100939100741 56488115541 65150102919104849119798108166 70397 62032 80099 >100196 73219 99107104354 80990 61240121531 91336 79703 92672102127103364 77476 > 76040 49360 92128122867 92474 46390 61685 98563109849 84257 95147 88960 54854 > 54656114898106334 77179 97177 93316 92573 65794 92722101879 97127 94256 61438 >115987 82673118412113066 37430111581 77179 81683 62923110690 82129 81683111383 > 54409 96484102622 95098 83267 63022 96533 72773 68615 86683 95147 84703 86188 > 91781 90940 84059 76931 96335 88564 96137114848 72179 84604102919 79208119056 > 85891 57181 83960108067100196 71882122620112175 81238 68318 69754108265 59755 >112373 64408 88168 84554131530 90197 71486 80347115591102523108859 88069 79406 >104255 82079 96484 96583 69704 70199 71783 72229103909 78317 88118 89900 56983 >105592106631108908 79604118709111383116878 88217102226127669 48271 96286102869 > 87326 86386111581 77080104057 77476 68219 93910 69160 97127 69110 69160 93860 > 71882 93613107770 84406121234 96137 75941 69061 69506 81089 96583 92227101879 >121036 97919 70744 97919 89009 78713 52528 80198 79951 90247100345 74308 82376 > 86881 68516 84109101978 88663 91534 68714106483121036 99800 79802106978 80050 > 68219101632 91435 91138100939 71486 71338100048 47182 72080 96632 92722 79406 > 87722 81089 92722108463 74605 91336101533109700115640 87128 85346 48023 78367 > 79852105146 95246 71932 68714108859117323101087127174 81634 99355 53171 56983 >110542113710104008 81782 81386 99107 76387 91286 70942130391121630 85000 83168 >104849119105 70397 63269 89900 43667 79258 78614 90643 73763 96979 97028 91286 > 67625 90494100592107869 80297 71239 99256 65398114452 88811 98068 95642102077 > 99800 77575 83614124451109502101038 68912 95395 67477 58765 67328 77773109948 > 77377107176 74258 59161103265 70645 89702 79703 59309 93217 67427 89455 98464 > 71536 81980 88366 68269103364 99503124550111383 50251 81683106879 81584 72922 >101483100493143657125045 40747135787 84653 98266 75298 67031 59408 83366 78367 > 99998111185115195120343114749 91930120788146875113957 82228115244 22729119353 >132124110245117422 82822103513 80446105344 88811 53072 81436 75446 75991101632 > 90989 68120 94553109651 84752130144 90692 55547 89801100889 83020115145149399 > 91187 81733121729109255 54508108364 57329 88960 98117 89603 83218 63962122917 >128263 84653105988101978111532103661 89504 52726 69655101384 72724104008105146 > 71585 71090 81089 86188 82673111977111581108017 77674121283 63022 80495 98959 > 65843 50993 93712 95147 81040 84208 85297117422109403113759118214104008118511 > 86584 47281 66190 88762 67180 99454117175102968 82178 55201111779 91484 90247 > 86435101335 91930118165110938106136 80396 85247 67972 95246 85000115492 71536 >131183 98909112918 36935 80941101335112274108809 78911106433 93860 78169 98711 >108760 84158 79555 88514 90494 75892 97622108166110789 97771 93860108809 81436 >118165 95098 74803 45944 97672 79604 62477 85693 93365 84851 65695120541115838 > 96830122026 79802109849 68021 84505115640104552 39658 81634133757 99899 96533 > 89207 73912 87079107275103364154349 33322 73763 94751 85643131233112918101731 >100097116482107918 53666123461 62081 83564 59854 64160102077120145 96484104255 > 61883118759 60794107522 91088109601146132 90940 82129 73615110641 73070103117 > 97672108314 54112 70546 99305 76882 84554 91534 96682 77674 67081 90791 55201 >107275 91138 90197 92227 94801 82970 92771 81931 96088 62873 80000133312 66338 > 52825111284 89356 65992 84703 88514 72575 78218 99899 73516 81733 96236107770 > 93415 59260105542 89999100840 88811 93019109997115046100889 60349 91336 60250 > 93365 55052 80990 77377110294 93365 94850 75545 84554 97820 80495106087 81733 > 69754 88366 82426 80149 95840 82475 99454 90692 85099 64507 68615 95840 91534 >117620 64952 66982 96979 85148 98018101335 73120 82723 57824 97622 90544 70447 >109453 75001 78515 94603 80050 84604 89950 83119 60101 72179 80000 74951 93415 > 82871 70694 97177 82574 88663 64259 75397 92078 76783 81931 80792 84059 74110 >106730 62477 86237 97424 68219 82723 99256 79109 63665 84406 99404100889 99701 > 87871114601 71882 63467 78565 89257 85297 96484100939 78911114601119105124897 > 92029110641102176 71140 99602 98563 94504 50746 55745 51884 76486 75248107869 > 85247 85396122075108166110740 39262 67378 71635106829102275 60398 83614 95494 > 96236101533128312 94801 93910 75793 86732 78119108710122917 87178 95642105196 > 97820 81634 68417 90593 69704 97870 67675104156 94058 90494101285 91633 89999 > 99355 94157 52082 79753 91187116779 88069 93019 80198131678139153132866 80149 > 72971 26095 73961 95692 73219119006101137 92870 96533110789 83564105592 89455 > 87227100592 60002 80396118462 96236 94702 93811123263 75743 78416105889 79703 >102721 79852106433 90098 79357 80594104107 99800 91633 96236 57874 92128 94949 >104305 87871 90643 95791 65843 70150107374 73120104552116333 74951 98068121778 > 60695103810 73516 81040 59408 65893112571 92870 99998101483 61982 72031 95345 > 85841 97820 85990 85396 91633 58468106235 83861 83069 86188 96187 64309105641 > 83960101483 90544 94058103463 53864119650 86039 74506 62675 79654 70051 99355 >102572 74951101632112324 86435 59161 92128114056 88267101978 87277 60943 94652 >102721 93464 90098 89752 93167 81188 58369 86287130391 96434 89405 86683 78664 > 66190 88811 77575103117 70496 79604 70892 92425 85049 91187104305 81980 67477 > 75001 69952 90346 82525104305103859 89207 59111 75496100543 92722 59210 94702 > 92227112324 91435104255104552 73912 46439 80842 92375 71239 89603 97523 68665 >106483 95048107176 88118103018 86881 81782 64606 73664114799 83465 81584102176 > 91732 83564100196106285 99602 76634 95098 63319 93118 92821 87871105790 90643 > 84901 89455 58270112274 64408 74011115640 83119 87623 69556111383 65546106582 > 91435 82723 48815108760 67922 89950 81881108958 80594 91633 83168117175100345 > 63616 78515 86633 68120 84554102424 86732 95989 85099 92524101978 78713 80594 >105839 73763 89455 98216 82871 53221 73862 82525 92672 65249 91682101087 85247 >101929 88762 70051 85544108958 70991 88267 82723 87475 98761 98117109750 59012 >102077118412 98266 50300 79951 62576 99503 93712 75100 76090 96286 83663 83020 >108265 69605103661 94801 84752 67427 94454107176 65497 99157 88613 78169 80248 > 85198 98810117620 98860101285 72278 86980 84257 96583 67328 75793 85495 87871 > 72328 78317 87425 76436 75446 93415 81287 69457100246 89653 83416101186 88019 > 95147 87128 94553 81188104552 53419 75446 63715 65101 92969 86732 76387 87871 >102176117521100691 96731 71041 93563 85198 76090 95939103463 71239107869 94108 > 94553 51785 93761 87970 93118 89356 74258 88861 96731 90593124699 54607117472 >105889 86683 79852 90989 98464 69605 81733104453 86435105097 97771 73021 56636 >112472108859 93365 99949110096112868 99454 83416 71833101137 76882 68764 84554 > 88762120491 85891 70793 53023103166 94504106285 87178115789109502113215 76436 >113314 67625 82376 81188 53369 97276117620 91088122372 93217 58765 88168 86089 >106532 89752111185 97078 79654102473 76139108512 88514 75892 90791114799124154 > 73862 89801 70051 69209 97177 60893101929 99206102622100840 87128110542 50746 >106285 85396 83069 79753 58567 74654 87326 80594 88118 76684 90395 66190 79802 > 94108 98612 92474 81733 60695 86089 92474107918104701 55102109205 68615 59210 >100444101929 89554 85891 73912 78070103463 90395100790 82723 79505 83218 98711 > 80099 86633 63665 91732 71932124352 96385 94355 86386 99998 93217100345 81485 >131134110146 89059 87970 92177104255 67081 64012123511 46786 86089 87079 94999 > 72179 72229107522 84158120739119204102325112076 87673 89306105047 61586 66041 > 75248109799104305 74704 83317112175 94850 72773 95741 88960127520120838 70199 > 54706 65645103166 99652 87574 88465 66932 86089 82822137222 73912 86881 78614 > 62428 88465104354114502101285 95543114007105592 90395 71932102226 96286119452 > 80644113759 55102116878104255103909 85049118016102919 93662 88960106334 97226 >114155127421116779148261115442121679 77228134054 95098 58171114700 59656108463 > 85693101632134797 84604107126 95345 88019 82228 94603 89801 91138 97474 79852 >110096 77971 90346115987 75545 98018 93910 83020 89405 69011 71090 97177104800 > 82228 96731125441 61240 88564 97276 92870129401 69407106334 78317108562 54211 >107077 91979 94999 65893107918 >2) Early summer temperature reconstructed (5-years moving average) > 2068=N -75=I TJJ5 -4(13F6.0)~ >107463 89524 76466 79149 77654 87613 90217 95088 88524 94632 96988102869105027 >107344107166104512 98909 97543 92979 91058 90969 92553 92731 99968 93613 91187 > 98216 94761 87861 93731 96870 82980 85920 92425 90177 87801 95028 93692 92375 > 94692 91870 86811 91949 84079 79881 89445 99869 94068 95494 89207 85445 80703 > 82604 85940 90217 84693 85980 86138 83940 82515 83227 79010 77258 77377 83901 > 83029 86148 87484 85772 86673 88890 91979 91395 91118 85356 85584 84722 90672 > 90623 84554 84158 79733 72971 75189 83425 84109 86821 86752 82287 83594 85564 > 83821 86692 94038 84802 85712 85158 80228 80465 85485 82198 82851 89009 83534 > 81673 86554 84445 76149 85366 85613 77456 77525 80683 74337 80891 82861 84554 > 84782 82930 76654 80762 81168 80842 82851 86970 84128 87217 87970 88197 88663 > 84109 81594 82713 83039 87593 88544 88623 86168 87633 78584 82930 78416 82247 > 82752 84910 84079 91563 89148 87772 94038 92761 86207 85960 91118 93236 93949 > 99265 98909 91395 88118 88296 90237 96276 94098 89771 89771 87861 81317 86514 > 94662 97414 96969 95533 94612 84415 81921 85465 92385 91207 87049 89761 85633 > 76030 83930 95028 87148 86188 91286 89187 88415 91563 94504 95266 94038 95038 >100137 95325 94088 95830 93217 89702101097107611108373112017109215 92444 88098 > 83643 83317 79347 81931 78703 80881 77238 82990 90128 96068 93543 91464 96187 > 93870 91999 90058 92811 87653 91365 89920 98929102117102721103354 96335 95464 > 94989 92900 81990 88851 84574 77842 83346 93088 95127 83920 89435 83812 78862 > 80307 87009 89534 91048 91890 92543 85603 75436 73575 76466 75753 87583 88722 > 92623 88118 84782 82584 86346 81673 86435 88187 89049 86356 89841 85544 79782 > 79960 78822 77080 80317 87227 90207 90682 90207 87920 78584 71912 78020 77040 > 81257 86079 86376 78693 85009 81742 81495 80347 91167 92276 89950 91058 93959 > 86564 87257 85396 86900 86494 90425 84198 83633 83663 91138 93919 93019 99226 > 94058 88554 80713 86277 86326 89573 91692 95998 97365 95593106463110106113422 >113927118897101820 90811 90821 88870 87405 97285 97028 93603 88583 87465 87999 > 96375 91138 94632 97780 97206106027 99483104473107700106849 93910108175 99226 > 95800 88286 91870 91078108423107215116838112126106255 93890 87405 80257 79357 > 91850 87544 90870 97622102592 97959 96008 88009 91504 85960 74783 78931 91326 > 89603 90464 98959101047 98830 92583 93504 94157 94197 96988 99661 98988 98543 > 95474 89969 89425 84732 79109 85188 80851 84910 94028 98790 97523106700 99770 > 88286 84663 85910 79208 84643 94603 98572 92504 86089 82891 85059 78317 82871 > 94543 94672 92029 96305 84178 77891 80396 81436 77525 82158 88979 87811 86712 > 92821 93553 88979 81604 81218 85108 91811 96949108571112690104760 97483 95008 > 82584 85643 84752 87861 85871 90732 83980 88771 93355 88781 96117 85970 86999 > 83237 91039 89791102829102156 99899 94860 88762 82643 86395 91603 89078 90791 >102117 99760 96959103453 97969 95484 86930 90801 93702 95672 90870 97969 94543 > 84386 92088 87376 88366 85495 87841 86890 96612101651106195112195110334101057 > 85841 84910 83445 87376 92118 91939 94464 90662 94177 86653 95533 88059 96226 > 88544 94533 88039100246 93929 98751102820109017 98929 98058 93048 88999 90039 > 90583 94652 90989 94721 91821 93484 91019 98929 95395 93969 92999 95117 99454 > 90761 90652 91751 92306 82525 85693 86712 84564 83366 85326 90524 89563 88118 > 86742 83148 83168 84386 86762 92603 96385 99612103711105463100642 97672 91276 > 89999 89761 83366 85099 92019 90563 87237 91939 87098 79238 78624 76723 75713 > 78812 83920 82673 88762 85900 85000 83851 84732 84138 83386 87762 85514 84841 > 81822 89870 85554 90395 90276 91543 91355 90959 91306 96127 97266 90544 96167 > 95266 88801 90860 86277 84821 80158 88088 90712 92761 97672102037 86386 73931 > 78000 74743 70417 76961 85495 82267 76862 75644 79168 79743 86306 88168 88385 > 88296 79852 79723 85059 86554 87712 95147 94424 95454 99899 99176 96385 98226 > 97919 95365 92781 94731 89167 91276 98523 96672 98355 98473 89583 84366 97691 > 91613 99216105829106334 99632 97731100869 97642 97553101879106116103918 98216 >100671 96672104235 96751104542105403 97483 89326 90296 77010 74832 84049 89187 > 90098 99216100018 98592 94464 99374102879 94583 95642 95078 86801 84505 91682 > 92128 94642 98454 92929 94801 84782 89811 88009 92128 85643 97384 83435 82742 > 82505 84277 77169 88534 91474 91177 90949 86831 82604 85544 86148 87880 91385 > 92217 85445 88118 84495 88306 88247 89365 87772 89415 85990 88465 93325 85603 > 90425 87772 88168 88989101651100176101226 93048 88098 84178 77188 82930 91395 > 91573 83782 93444 91890 86960 89296 97474 93840 91068 90336 81673 79673 83574 > 86574 80644 83109 84396 81792 80149 89900 95355 86613 75575 81703 83940 81584 > 90049 97780 93316 85207 88316 89257 90019 90355 89484 94137 90296 94553 98315 > 93514 92632 91534 84188 74159 88811 82921 83821 89761 88059 85217 89316 91999 > 86376 88098 88108 82138 76842 77525 83950 81584 84267 88900 89752 87534 85980 > 88009 87366 88405 94563 93613 91266 94137 90751 91593 94335 88851 85059 90831 > 87059 84257 97345102988 97622 91246 90821 87950 77466 83693 82911 86593 81851 > 96206 91771 93187 91623 97830 92029 95761 99077 98889 96622 92533 90058 91761 > 89821 83010 80950 76099 77565 79287 82871 86494 83445 83782 89445 93603 91543 >103889105047107096102958107482109274 96652 92533 95464 92484 84227 96889 93048 > 93286 91316 87682 84148 82564 81178 79505 79693 79683 80228 79525 87257 90306 > 95781100632 97097 89356 86376 78347 78436 81693 88257 98563101929 96761 97899 > 95325 86861 77782 79673 76080 76327 80653 85009 85445 86831 82485 79238 84772 > 86029 86960 86999 91474 95286 97513 95167102820 97533 86970 87336 89662 86494 > 90672 91326 85267 86989 78198 72427 77456 81733 77604 85712 87514 86732 89880 > 88920 89643 93731 97127 98563101067 99869 89167 82901 75743 79347 81327 86108 > 84178 89979 92415 93583104631107215105314 92484 83663 80337 86752 87682 93405 > 98285 95998 88534 85990 83821 93622 98127 99850 98226105007102750 92504 88158 > 89504 77268 69298 70942 76416 73189 83851 87405 89940 85336 88682 89405 91573 > 89375 90098 91850 84811 86128 87831 93197 92474 99810 96880 94632 91741 97503 > 98988 99236 97503 99859 88465 78317 71575 73347 76258 78238 87920 89306 85584 > 84247 82901 79406 80495 80525 78515 77872 77822 81574 84019 81772 85960 81723 > 82703 88296 96810101414 97810 93474 94949 86356 78664 88910 92672100028108720 >102285109146105978 96899 86950 92207 76931 76674 72694 77634 86465 97622105017 >112294110680112601118937117660111155115818 96206 90702 94335 99939100374112393 >109225 98889 97909 92187 86237 81822 80822 74951 77515 85099 82435 86257 92989 > 89613 97444101958 94157 90187 93415 83990 88880107651107928104097111838110660 > 91682 95117 90237 83683 81455 88474 83445 84772 91563 97592 96602101156108760 >106483101562102532 91880 85415 83386 77198 80099 90583 90969 84910 86584 83020 > 78525 86603 94702100087 98384106106 96315 90098 88286 85920 71862 78000 80931 > 77347 81020 87880 92623 95474102018108819112561112779108215 94919 84514 81465 > 71199 73773 87752 95107 93791 91395 93860 88722 86178 87029 96256 92286 97622 >101760105700101513100176 90138 86999 82772 89791 87049 99691100424106007 90296 > 92177 86207 88880 88059 96454101552100057 93236 91217 97186 92731 89870 91939 > 90296 83722 86415 92137 96592 98048101641103879 98533100008 99473 95662 83089 > 86336 78624 72100 74278 83762 81198 78416 90029 96058 96751104186107007104869 > 95305 92840 91563 96513 82475 85198 95048 91900 90296100206 98662 89326 90801 > 92167105196 97078 94414 91910 88366 83742 99661105255106324112492107829 95979 >100325 92722 86138 76525 78624 74347 85960 88544 97424 96969100305 88435 90643 > 88009 97553103027109057103978100483100691 86079 88514 91623 98563 87257 86752 > 85990 81832 77080 84564 89791 85465 83505 84752 77485 79604 82297 86920 87207 > 95127 90266 90593 88940 89712 83326 82732 90841 87722 79069 88752 90623 77159 > 80832 87970 80228 78000 84782 82544 81188 85920 91831 90534 87682 92444 91197 > 89811 88890 95642 96533101542101552 95860 95523 85574 81238 72070 76198 73407 > 83416 83416 91375 90286 91722 89227 86653 88900 90138 87178 85287 85673 80485 > 83307 85851 88069 89722 90712 84445 81673 80950 81119 87623 87712 87385 87613 > 86336 82416 89692 90920 88069 82604 82525 80366 79832 85178 88613 84792 85603 > 87524 82554 85544 86465 79564 77990 77070 74070 76129 80683 80386 83821 85346 > 84396 80673 81614 80594 79436 78089 81396 83128 79535 85524 81634 82723 85396 > 84217 79416 86772 85346 78594 81832 85168 85495 89613 94454100493 94989 87504 > 83277 83554 77693 82614 90108 90177 95246102008107690105908112254109769100176 > 95117 96424 93197 82911 79832 70288 65873 62022 73446 79347 86049 95167101750 >102325 93127 89524 79436 79168 77476 81703 84950 89722 87603 87455101038103275 >102958 98869 95909 85871 88653 94454 96731 98513103928101750 93494 89742 88732 > 81634 81643 78852 85999 86692 90850 91534 96325 93494 94553 95286 85445 83069 > 83307 86791 85574 93761 93850101948106423115383112809111363 90247 77208 69773 > 68387 77594 92603 96385 96553104067 96979 97870 97186 95325 93286 88573 83534 > 89336 91138 89959 96721105295 96751 93187 95424 92603 88494 89316 94919 91761 > 91692 87267 92118 90791 91098 94474 89930 87534 86564 89098 87425 93979 94711 > 88890 82059 85960 82455 84208 94306 95266 93405103136 94365 91860 91573 88168 > 75694 76733 78485 82356 86148 94563 93781 85673 86168 83336 82604 87405 90078 > 89336 83861 85544 85118 84653 83564 91108 82723 87079 87257 90316 89187 95137 > 94702 88682 92316 91415 87504 79347 84505 74585 77248 82861 85316 89712 98167 > 95583 86900 90336 92821 88009 91118 96741 90504 86623 89514 87811 88375 94137 > 93840 89534 82515 81752 89880 90534 92177 97840 96315 83475 81950 79584 82871 > 81238 83920 80337 83307 79693 83831 88771 90989 85999 83990 79743 76951 77060 > 84425 90197 94048 87801 86395 85643 83416 77416 84534 87880 90237 89979 98988 >100958 97295 84118 82000 79624 72961 76099 86316 83881 86702 91464 94979 93098 > 99968 96048 93395 84881 81990 84346 83663 83623 91138 94751 88504 91850 96790 > 96276 93256 95563 88187 85554 84198 86445 88583 94048 92405 91732 85811 87108 > 81861 79683 84920 89890 84960 85990 93464 83445 88138 88900 91534 79020 87663 > 79931 79634 79465 91494 85861 90603 89247 96305 94583 91187 88564 89257 79446 > 76288 84049 85693 87564 90959 92553 92464 90860 87781 91930 88177 85673 89573 > 90029 79505 79525 78139 77030 73506 81198 86643 87187 89039 93741 89415 86306 > 91048 84861 84762 87296 87682 85643 91068 95365 90623 93543 97474 97503 85613 > 89801 81901 78119 77208 82168 81396 88138 84970 82831 89464 88168 89643 91870 > 92217 84049 89019 89722 83861 86742 90979 87722 82336 86277 86207 92009 96147 >100354 97771 95404 88732 88276 81485 82188 81891 82614 77763 79960 82287 80475 > 77990 82208 82802 79208 83970 86811 84811 88791 92504 91484 90979 93207 89207 > 92514 84168 81832 75664 72446 70130 76792 76981 81812 89227 94137 96929100998 > 97632 95909 89445 84524 84366 90850 86386 90920 94523 94246 83911 88415 84435 > 84237 83198 87692 86712 88465 87960 95028 91098 96820 98652 97870 88900 96177 > 92375 85118 84128 89049 88138 89464 95098 93355 83792 88999 89752 88870 94256 >104948105027103146101156 95533 93741 86544 80406 80634 84019 87890 89692 90098 > 83792 86673 81475 85554 88831101384102651106393100424105651 96018 90593 84188 > 79574 76367 86366 88108 96345104314 96612 90722 89722 86554 85861 96345 98127 > 96840 96028 93306 92771 91058 90306 87970 95701 98830 95899 98681 94533 85415 > 80020 77426 79852 85683 92365 93098 98345100067 90375 91108 88019 87207 81049 > 82614 76288 76674 76179 77852 81475 84623 80396 80238 81436 85821 86237 89346 > 85524 83920 82693 85782 90375 89257 93880 89108 79366 78515 87880 83950 87405 > 90346 85871 86178 86346 89326 91088 91375 87326 88989 84851 85633 82465 84168 > 78812 87663 89613 95751 94682100295 94068 94860 92286101236103265102433 99958 >102097 96721 88108 83099 90207 81129 77495 81495 87692 77426 82515 86801 86217 > 91365100770106789107700108403102117 99285 91138 81931 79446 83544 83396 86019 > 89474 96860 93870 87564 91771 92900 95969101166100651 92444 87781 82911 78673 > 82148 88900 89158 85742 82376 92306 89395 93385 91890 87811 78060 84148 89672 > 94207100830105938106186101364 95494 96830 93286 96058 94108102473 93048 97167 > 94127 98780 93038105621102829100711 97721101978 97820100067106819112383120768 >124411125916115878119333108700 97246 95850 92335 87217 85336 94028 98048103037 >102770104701101978 91464 93464 89999 89158 91048 90573 93672 91306 91147 94850 > 93989 91573 94761 93296 87979 86673 81287 81940 86296 84861 90405101275 94088 > 90841 93850 93078 93870 95503 99058 95266 98404 83366 90900 88029 91365 82831 > 93573 >3) Annual temperature reconstructed, RCS-chronology (5-years moving average) > 2068=N -75=I TYY5 -3(13F6.0)~ >-12564-12358-12537-12656-13098-12929-13147-13257-13384-13016-12835-12903-12930 >-13576-13553-13649-13392-13177-12819-12688-12926-13075-13332-13153-13197-13410 >-13017-13152-13072-13194-12905-12848-12725-12723-12681-12927-13628-13809-13580 >-13499-13547-13069-13036-12979-12913-12830-12735-12648-12783-12679-12869-13358 >-13367-13615-14005-13568-13824-14163-14297-14023-13902-13566-13862-13968-13582 >-13782-13605-13476-13375-13224-13576-13357-13123-13099-13014-13030-13354-12940 >-13430-13238-13308-13270-13675-13594-13725-13726-13363-13538-13683-13824-13714 >-13667-13512-13704-13096-13097-13400-13343-13264-13211-13644-13630-13382-13402 >-13211-13007-13084-13185-13179-13128-13308-13570-13688-14509-13992-13869-14206 >-13872-13900-13415-13486-13465-13495-13484-13772-13586-13270-13622-14089-14416 >-13938-14000-14046-14121-13928-13935-13861-13886-13708-13628-13599-13337-13584 >-13540-13487-13910-13628-13637-13691-13598-13807-13756-13706-13380-13027-13069 >-13124-13416-13260-13649-13760-13475-13061-13456-13343-13435-13419-13789-13868 >-13259-12929-13089-13432-13436-13657-13806-13358-13567-13504-13095-13069-13156 >-13475-13179-13461-13262-13199-13027-13255-13113-13764-13904-14151-13754-13034 >-13415-13462-13486-13015-13330-13488-13139-13130-12885-12759-12938-12595-12574 >-12878-13176-12923-12994-13381-13337-13364-13491-13691-13535-13755-13754-13622 >-13730-13870-13928-13997-13994-13800-13806-13148-12882-13265-13062-13043-13063 >-12997-12825-12703-12692-13028-13093-13032-13457-13561-13230-13464-13109-13156 >-13165-13535-13322-13271-13553-13225-13093-13070-13208-13163-13285-13301-13604 >-13527-13440-13611-13486-13674-13724-13762-13707-13747-13266-13691-13481-13392 >-13791-13550-13618-13475-13473-13174-13404-13125-13344-13318-13734-13432-13343 >-13238-13358-13508-13540-13649-13975-13986-14033-13732-13660-13645-13627-13389 >-13931-13917-14016-13817-13816-13658-13615-13495-13508-13190-13057-12882-12900 >-12774-12902-13117-13299-13446-13945-13713-13901-13311-13268-13309-13240-13368 >-13251-13316-12818-12489-12514-12564-12865-13234-13551-13622-13445-13438-13273 >-12893-12915-12989-12763-12838-12489-12515-12471-12298-12401-12689-12887-12669 >-12937-12691-12788-12973-12360-12344-12604-12586-12531-13175-12910-12845-13020 >-12757-13265-13129-12966-12744-13062-12841-12791-12770-12695-12940-13042-12944 >-13165-13127-13508-13451-13463-13268-13625-13392-13212-13143-13734-13594-13740 >-13739-13817-13922-13234-13280-13152-13178-13214-13040-13374-13216-13432-13224 >-13108-13313-13301-13538-13493-13788-13718-13834-13432-13496-13400-13253-13190 >-13449-13348-13444-13942-13332-13256-13224-13349-13269-13339-13352-13360-13496 >-13546-13849-13954-13434-13509-13215-13074-13161-13363-13544-13291-13333-13360 >-13263-13202-13071-12957-13209-13539-14219-14232-13728-13297-13065-12877-12926 >-13045-13088-13310-13728-13717-13768-13691-13633-14032-13692-13258-13262-13176 >-13017-13062-13010-13164-13028-13167-12857-12869-12877-12835-12996-13390-13451 >-13654-13592-13430-13483-13420-13079-13403-12816-12539-12529-12741-13298-13139 >-13049-13073-13107-13344-13239-13362-13165-13082-12810-12905-12821-12964-12672 >-12853-13144-12972-12759-12810-12603-12645-12744-12922-12984-13148-13841-13976 >-13748-13811-13353-13158-13048-13204-13236-13723-13749-13821-13819-13723-13074 >-12875-12803-12758-12812-13402-13124-13135-13364-13711-13665-14034-14245-14090 >-14094-14180-14275-14276-14249-13559-13446-13450-13672-13779-13669-13873-13484 >-13413-13497-13269-13239-13204-13541-13491-13863-13408-13379-13548-13361-13709 >-13713-13724-14111-13845-13764-13801-13673-13758-13930-13678-13531-13556-13618 >-13938-14029-14036-13465-13478-13888-13763-13868-13754-13398-13289-13074-13283 >-13232-13228-13242-13234-13361-13465-13081-13047-13169-12992-13166-12882-12930 >-12920-13072-13365-13509-13298-13184-13400-13544-13483-13527-13668-13750-13959 >-14193-13531-13525-13404-13443-13327-13647-13941-13379-13426-13479-13677-13733 >-13468-13311-13189-13134-12807-12864-12672-12667-12753-12779-13025-13501-12977 >-13079-12765-12884-13131-13315-13071-12821-12956-12985-12976-13235-13210-12847 >-12870-13026-12852-12977-13201-13202-12735-12762-12712-12935-13424-13433-13411 >-13217-13589-13152-13135-13229-13312-13413-13298-13367-13223-13219-13504-13363 >-13317-13396-13834-13263-13086-12959-12848-12883-12972-13191-13155-13194-13223 >-13177-13136-13363-13541-13589-13524-13585-13612-13495-13214-13374-13335-13661 >-13783-13655-13664-13654-13601-13570-13651-13765-13854-13840-13962-13674-13402 >-13041-13164-12997-13168-13263-13288-13558-13191-13012-13300-13576-13511-13449 >-13271-13075-13033-13033-12992-12926-13009-13187-13207-13351-13095-13232-13102 >-12935-12959-12982-13007-13191-13212-13424-14012-13405-13300-13180-13173-13150 >-13300-13673-13520-13190-13514-13606-13664-13742-13456-13361-13496-13160-13010 >-13093-12902-12961-13167-13340-13054-13319-13364-13172-13200-13438-13047-13338 >-13355-13311-13267-13234-13187-13343-13267-13402-13428-14014-14008-14331-14235 >-14026-14044-13860-13519-13515-13405-13169-13039-12856-13080-12858-13081-13136 >-13507-13546-13362-12914-13087-12939-12857-13090-13351-13269-13175-13060-13278 >-13013-13220-13424-13375-13105-13304-13097-13204-13486-13520-13642-13848-13850 >-13455-13427-13138-13458-13808-13930-13606-13563-13385-13492-13350-13321-13378 >-13310-13093-13097-13109-13649-13298-12723-12747-12706-12761-13100-13351-13278 >-13066-13100-12959-13222-12924-13251-13355-13568-13794-13683-14068-13613-13582 >-13169-13346-13280-13443-13465-14014-14104-14080-13671-13464-13649-13567-13618 >-13614-13768-13393-13452-13489-13775-13438-13812-13832-13803-13638-13953-13694 >-13703-13790-13599-13387-12909-12909-12845-12976-12879-12952-13013-12997-13433 >-13530-13463-13218-13141-13121-13285-13182-13221-13369-13735-13972-13950-13576 >-13770-13679-13900-13599-13237-13420-13682-13193-13156-13328-13267-13475-13824 >-13504-13263-12986-12953-12625-13060-13045-12732-12686-12913-12895-12888-13041 >-13491-13335-13363-13683-13406-12941-12711-13004-13117-13230-12962-12953-12988 >-12986-12931-13299-13185-13268-13622-13724-13641-13682-13331-13691-13561-13176 >-13154-13544-13313-13101-13071-13167-13172-13061-13308-13342-13345-13251-12792 >-12652-12548-12675-12817-13060-12908-13110-13394-13443-13609-13086-13069-13068 >-13121-13068-13180-13207-13155-13337-13376-13436-13281-13239-13397-13385-13475 >-13722-13790-13241-12844-12863-12697-12786-12967-13220-13380-13401-13117-12835 >-12661-12667-12444-12521-12796-13000-13409-13518-13972-13653-13212-13249-12819 >-13056-12947-13122-12346-12182-12339-12389-12124-12572-12517-12479-12496-12515 >-12452-12239-12431-13031-12632-12569-12767-13149-13514-13881-13419-13319-13091 >-13181-12848-13227-13130-13042-13182-13367-12980-12509-12536-12634-12651-12767 >-12764-12726-12574-12856-13111-13065-13596-13418-12971-12800-12726-12627-12979 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>-13119-13153-13133-13099-13567-13372-13366-13786-13629-13808-13726-13372-13241 >-13335-13219-13261-13066-13127-12816-12859-12887-12983-13197-13145-13160-13229 >-13368 > >Draft manuscript > VARIABILITY OF LARCH RADIAL GROWTH IN THE EAST OF TAYMIR AND > PUTORAN FOR THE LAST 2000 YEARS > > M.M.Naurzbaev, E.A.Vaganov >Taymir Biospheric Reserve, Khatanga >Institute of Forest, Krasnoyarsk > >Abstract > Regional tree-ring chronology with extension 2209 years (since >212 B.C. till 1996 A.D.) was built for the east of Taymir >according to wood of living trees, well preserved residues of dead >trees and semi-fossil wood from alluvial bank deposits by the >cross-dating method. In addition the "floading" tree-ring width >chronology for the period of Holocene Optimum (3300-2600 B.C.) >was built with extention 685 years and supported by several >rdiocarbon dates. High values of synchrony and correlation >of individual tree-ring series show a prevailing effect of one >external factor on radial tree growth change in the studied region >of Siberian subarctic. It was established that the main factor of >growth variability the early summer and annual temperature >is which explains up to 70% of tree growth rate variability. >Cyclic components stable for two millennia were revealed at analysis >of the tree-ring chronology: double secular (about 180 years), >secular (78-90) and intrasecular (44, 28, 11 and 6,7-6,9 years) >variations. Models for reconstruction of the early summer and >annual air temperature were obtained according to tree growth >variability. Temperature dynamics in the eastern part of Taymir >for the last two millenia agrees well with temperature variations >in the northern hemisphere obtained according to other indirect >sources. The warming of the middle of the 20-th century is not >extraordinary. The more long in time, and close in amplitude the >warming at the border of the first and the second millennia was. > >Key words: radial growth, tree-ring chronologies, temperature >change, dendrochronology, climate, growth cyclicity, temperature >reconstruction, response functions. > >Introduction > > The leading dendrochronological groups began their work >in some key regions of circumpolar zone of the northern hemisphere >on building the superlong (several millennia, and for the whole >Holocene period if to use subfossil wood) tree-ring chronologies >for the quantitative reconstruction of natural temperature >variations [6,8,19,20,35,36]. The high latitudinal regions in the >northern hemisphere are of greatest interest for assessing natural >and anthropogenic variations of air temperature, forest-tundra >ecosystem growth and productivity, regeneration regime as well as >of polar timberline dynamics because the ecosystems of high >latitudes have the highest sensibility to the expected global >climate warming [4,15,18,19,22,43]. Owing to accessibility and >great amount of well-preserved wood of dead trees as well as of >subfossil wood from alluvial river deposits and wood buried in >bogs several regions in high latitudes of Russia turned to be >promising for building millennial chronologies: the Polar Urals >[15,31], Yamal peninsula [32], the east of Taymir and Putoran >[7,8,14] and the lower Indigirka river[34]. The following problems >were solved in the given paper: 1) obtaining of the absolutely >dated 2000 year tree-ring chronology suitable for quantitative >reconstruction of climate changes; 2) revealing of the main >climatic factor responsible for the year-to-year and long -term >growth variability; 3) building of models of climate change >reconstruction for the whole period of long tree-ring chronology. > >Material and methods > Dendrochronological material was collected in Kheta-Khatanga >plain as well as in Moyero-Kotuy plateau regions of the >Middle-Siberian forest zone within the northern stripe of the >northern taiga subzone [1] (Fig.1). The wood samples were taken >with the help of a borer or chainsaw from the living trees, from the well >preserved residues of a dead and subfossil wood. The whole >sampled material is from trees from three types of conditions: >1) from the contemporary northern timberline of larch in the stow >(urotchishche) Ary-Mas of the Taymir biospheric reservation >(latitude of 72 28' N.); 2) from contemporary upper timberline >with absolute marks 200-300 m above sea level in the Kotuy river >valley (latitude of 70 30'-71 00' N.); 3) from alluvial deposits >of flood-land and over-flood-land terraces of large tributaries of >the Khatanga river (latitude of 70 30'- 73 00'N.). Measuring of >the tree-ring width was made with the help of automatized devices >with resolution up to 0.001 mm, and later the measured individual >tree-ring chronologies were treated in the standard software >package for dendrochronological and dendroclimatological analysis >[26,33]. Owing to the high year-to-year variability, high >synchrony of individual series between each other the results of >the cross dating gave a chance to build the continuous chronology >since the year 212 B.C. till 1996 A.D., it means the total length >2209 years. Besides, according to the well-cross-dated discs of >subfossil wood for which the series of radiocarbon dates was >made at the University of Bern (Switzerland) and at the Joint >Institute of Geology, Geophysics and Mineralogy SB RAS >(Novosibirsk) the "floading" chronology of 685 years long was >obtained which according to the dates agreed with climatic optimum >of the Holocene (3300-2600 years B.C.). > Standartization method is used to treat individual series for >the best revealing of climatic signal. This method is intended to >remove the changes caused by age or by factors of the non-climatic >nature (for example, effect of phytocoenotic factors) from >tree-ring width variability. For standartization two approaches >were used: 1) an approximating curve of age variations is tried >for every individual series [15,26]; 2) an age curve is used which >is built according to the entire totality of analysed individual >curves of growth [3,11,21,23]. As the special studies showed, the >long climatic changes (or super-secular variations) remain more >reliably at the second standartization method [21]. Therefore, it >was chosen for standartization of individual series and obtaining >of the long chronology of tree-ring indexes. Obtaining of >regional tree-ring chronology (C1) and of the so-called "residual" >series (C2), from which autocorrelation was removed [26,40], was >as a result of individual series standartization. The main >statistic characteristics were calculated for the obtained >chronologies: inter-series coefficient of correlation (as an >index of synchrony of individual series), sensitivity coefficient, >standard deviation,1-st order autocorrelation etc.[30,41]. > Analysis of the frequency-temporal structure of obtained >chronologies at the entire period and at the 500-year intervals >was carried out by Fourie method of direct transforming >(Blackman-Tyuki method) and Fourie method of "fast or inverse >transforming" (Kuli-Tyuki method) [10]. The methods of graphical >assessment of smoothed curves [15,16], analysis of >autocorrelational function [2,15], a narrow-striped filtering of >series [12] were used at the revealing of long (super-secular) >cycles in growth variability. Revealing of the main climatic >factors of growth variability was based on response function >assessing and interpreting [30,42]. The quantitative >reconstruction of climatic factors according to variability of >growth indexes was made on the base of calculated regression model >at which building one part of climatic series was used for >calibration, another part - for verification [6,7,41]. Adequacy of >reconstruction model was assessed by standard statistic indexes: >correlation coefficient, Fisher's criterion, autocorrelation of >residues - criterion of Darbin-Watson [17]. > >Results > In the result of the cross dating (its quality was checked by >statistic estimates according to the COFECHA program [26,33]) of >Larix gmelini living trees and trees dead long ago from the upper >timberline as well as of subfossil wood from alluvial deposits >the reginal tree-ring chronology since the year 212 B.C. till 1996 >A.D. was built for the eastern part of Taymir and Putoran. The >total number of wood samples being dated was 118, including 27 living >and 91 dead trees. The average age of the used trees made 300 >years, the maximum age was 798 years. The percentage of the >missing rings is not very large - only 0,5% because the discs were >analysed, mainly, but not wood cores [44]. The tree number in the >regional chronology is not homogeneous in calendar scale and has a >tendency to decrease when moving to the past: 3 and more models >since the year 135 B.C., 5 and more models since the year 81 >B.C. Dating of dead trees showed that in the upper timberline under >continental climate the dead tree residues can remain on the day >surface during more than 1900 years. Inter-series correlation >coefficient for the whole time period is rather higher than the >threshold value (0,62- 0,75, p < 0,01). It confirms >a stable and strong external influence which >synchronizes growth variability of individual trees. > The main statistic C1 chronology for the whole period and in >500- year intervals are given in the Table 1. The high and close >coefficient values of sensitivity and standard deviation for the >different time intervals show that tree growth variability under >these conditions is controlled by one and the same factor during >two millennia. Autocorrelation of the first order which shows the >growth effect of the previous year on the growth in the next year >is of great importance as well. Autocorrelation is not significant >after treating it by autoregression model in C2. The average >tree-ring width for two thousand years is at the level 0,28 mm >but it greatly varies in time, the average tree-ring width is more >high (0,40 mm) for the Holocene optimum period (Fig.3). >Radiocarbon datings agree well with absolute dendrochronological >data. > Analysis of spectral density allowed to show the frequency >stripes important by their contribution to the total growth >variability and to assess their amplitude (Table 2). The >contribution of millennial cyclic component makes about 4%. The >large contribution is brought by double secular cycle (in >frequency stripe of 120-220 years) up to 20,6% and secular cycle >(in frequency stripe of 60-120 years) - up to 13,3%. The >cross-spectral analysis of the 500 year old fragments of >chronology showed that during two millennia the double secular >(180 years), secular (78-90 years) and several intrasecular >(44,28,11 6,7- 6,9 years) cycles are steadily present. Hereat, >re-distribution in the capacity of separate cyclic components is >observed. Such a re-distribution was already noted in the papers >on dendroclimatic data from boreal taiga forests and forest-tundra >regions [2,12,15]. Positive anomalies of growth, the most strong in >amplitude and long in time, fall on the 4-th century, the border of >the 6-th and 7-th centuries, the border of the 1-st and 2-nd >millennia, the middle of the 20-th century. However, the negative >anomalies fall on the 1-st century, the border of the 13-th and >14-th centuries and the first half of the 19-th century. These >anomalies can be explained by superposition of cycles of different >length. So, growth increase in the middle of the 20-th century >agreed with positive periods of the double secular, secular, and >several intrasecular cycles (44, 11, and 6,7 years). > Since at the polar timberline the summer temperature is the >main factor of growth limiting [6, 15,35,43], then the >dendroclimatic analysis of relation of growth variability was >carried out, first of all, with air temperature data for summer >period. However, some changes were brought to the traditional >searching scheme of correlation with average monthly temperature >data.In order to reveal the key interval of the season when >temperature mainly affected on radial tree growth the >value of correlation coefficient between >C2 growth indexes and air temperature for every five days >beginning from the 8-th of May was calculated. Everyday data of >the Khatanga meteorological station since 1933 to 1989 were used. >All the calculations are given in the Fig.4. As we see, the significant >positive connection (p<0,01) between air temperature for every >five days and growth indexes is observed for the period since June >17 to July 11 and it falls on the interval of stable temperature >rise in the season. The temperature of the more late intervals of >the season does not show large connection with growth variations. >The temperature for the period June 17 -July 11 we called as an >early summer temperature. Temperature sum for this time period >shows the most correlation with C2 tree-ring indices (R=0,77). Thus, >variability of C2 tree-ring indexes is determined by the early >summer temperature variability in the east of Taymir and Putoran >by 60%. The smoothed >(the 5-year moving average) C1 tree-ring indexes and instrumental >values of average annual air temperature show high agreement too >(R=0,72). At the same time the smoothed annual temperature shows the >significant relationship with the concordance coefficient calculated >for the same period of 5 years based on all wood samples available. >This relationship is positive (R=0.44,p<0.01) and shows that in >cool periods the synchrony in tree-ring variations among all trees >measured becames lower, in warm periods it becomes higher, but has >a non-significant relation to tree-ring width variations. >Therefore, at seaching of quantitative models of >reconstruction of leading climatic variables using tree-ring >chronologies it was conventionally taken to use C2 for the early >summer temperature reconstruction, and C1 - for the >annual temperature reconstruction. > The results of calibration and verification of obtained >models of the early summer and average annual temperature >reconstruction according to 2000-year chronologies data are given >in the Table 3 and in the Fig.5. As we can see, the early summer >temperature variability is well explained by tree-ring indexes >variability in C2 (R^2 =0,59 - 0,72), the average annual >temperature variability is described by the model with two >variables: by smoothed values of tree-ring indexes in C1 and by >concordance coefficient values between individual series (R^2 =0,67) >(Fig.5). Comparison of calculated values of the early summer and >average annual temperatures with the real ones for the period of >instrumental observations shows (Fig.5) that the calculated values of >the early summer temperature agree well with the year-to-year >variability of real values repeating the most large positive >(1940-41, 1953, 1967,1979, 1984) and negative (1947, 1949, 1980, >1989) extremes. Hereat, in the curves of the early summer >temperature variability the long fluctuations are not expressed. >To the contrary, the periods of large temperature rise >(1938-1956,1983-1989) and temperature fall (the end of (19)50s and >(19)70s clearly agree in reconstructed and real values of average >annual temperature. > Based on the obtained models according to two chronologies the >reconstruction of the early summer and average annual air temperature >was made for the east of Taymir and Putoran for the period since the >year 81 B.C. to the present time (it means, for the period provided >by 5 and more samples). The curves of variability of the >reconstructed early summer temperature (smoothed by the 5-year and >57-year moving average) are given in the Fig.6. The average value >of the early summer temperature equals to 9,6 C for the >instrumental observation period. The most large fall of the early >summer temperature is marked in the 1-st century (T=8,4 C), and in >the end of the 13-th century (8,4 C). The most warm periods with >the raised average early summer temperature are the end of the >3-rd century (T=9,7 C), the border of two millennia (9,6 C), the >middle of the 20-th century (9,9 C). The middle of the 20-th >century is characterized by the most rise of the early summer >temperature, but the 11-th and 12-th centuries are characterized >by the long period with high early summer temperatures. > Long variations of the average annual temperature range from >minus 14 C to minus 12,5 C. It was of great interest for average >annual temperature to compare the reconstruction data with other >indirect data on dynamics of average annual air temperature of the >northern hemisphere in order to make clear whether temperature >variations in the east of Taymir and Putoran reflect global >temperature changes in the northern hemisphere. As such the data >on reconstruction of temperature variation in high latitudes >according to ratio of oxygen isotopes in ice cores of Greenland >were used [25,29]. In the Fig.7 both reconstructions are matched >in the calendar scale since the late of the 12-th century. Their >good agreement is well seen, especially in positive (the 14-th and >15-th centuries, the end of the 18-th and the middle of the 20-th >centuries) and in negative (the late of the 13-th and of the 17-th >centuries, and the first half of the 19-th) extremes. It means, >the long fluctuations of average annual temperature in the east of >Taymir and Putoran agree well with global air temperature >variations of the northern hemisphere for the last millennium, and >hence the tree-ring chrnology of this region can be used to >analyse both regional peculiarities and global temperature >variations in the northern hemisphere. > >Discussion and conclusions > The results of analysis of the super-long tree-ring chronology >of the Taymir and Putoran east show that the information on the >main climate changes in the northern hemisphere for the last 2000 >years is reliably fixed in it: fall of temperature in the first >century, climate warming in the 3-rd and 4-th centuries, warming >in the Medival Warm Period (?) or "the small climatic optimum" at the border >of two millennia, the long fall of temperature in the 17-th and >19-th centuries ("the small glacial period") and the present >climate warming in the middle of the 20-th century [27]. Since the >obtained regional chronology has good correlations with >other chronologies of subarctic zone within 500- 600 km [6,43], >then we can believe that similar regularities of the early summer >and average annual temperature variability are typical of large >sector of Siberian subarctic. It was shown earlier that the long >growth variations agree well for the entire Siberian subarctic >[8,24]. The studied region (and this is shown by subfossil wood >samples and by obtained "floating" chronology) has a high potential >to build the tree-ring chronology for the whole Holocene period >and to study in details temperature variations for this period of >the Earth history. > Two important consequenses from reconstruction analysis should >be noted especially. First, the analysis of frequency structure of >series and of their separate fragments illustrates a constancy of >the main environmental factors limiting growth. It is confirmed >also by comparing reconstructions with other indirect >evidences. Second, the warming in the middle of the 20-th century, >marked as extraordinary [22], has the analogs in the past. So, >the warming at the border of millennia shows a close amplitude and >was more long [27,38]. Historical evidences on climate of this >Medival Warm period say about the more large climate warming than >the present one [13]. The obtained data demonstrate that >temperature variations in high latitudes for the instrumental >period (1850- 1990) do not go far beyond limits of natural >variations revealed during two millennia. > Ratio of natural and anthropogenic components in the present >and future climate changes is especially discussed. It is proved >in some papers based on the long tree-ring chronologies of North >America that the influence of anthropogenic component becomes >large and can be separated and assessed quantitatively [39]. Hereat, >the trees growing above the upper or polar timberline reflect >stable temperature rise in the northern hemisphere [28,35,37]. >However, a direct correlation between temperature and growth is >marked only for trees from growth regime especially chosen [36,37]. >The stable trend of summer and especially winter temperatures for >the last decades is connected with the increase of anthropogenic >component share, mainly, at the expense of atmospheric green-house >gases [4]. At the same time, on large areas of high latitudes >(mainly, in subarctic zone) tree growth, correlating well with >temperature rise till (19)60s, begins to stunt after this period >from the rise of temperature [24]. We can believe that the direct >temperature effect is combined with other factors which influence >growth rate of trees in polar latitudes. For instance, increase of winter >precipitation can shift the dates of snow cover melting to the >more late time even at summer temperature rise [9]. In polar >latitudes the conditions of the first season half play the leading >role in radial tree growth and tree-ring forming [5,6]. Therefore, >tree growth response at the polar timberline will be more complex >than we can expect only from summer temperature variations. > >Conclusions >1. The long 2209-year (since the year 212 B.C. till 1996 A.D) >regional tree-ring chronology was obtained for the east of Taymir >and Putoran, suitable for quantitative dendroclimatic analysis and >climate change reconstruction. Numerous radiocarbon data of sub- >fossil wood and several built "floating" chronologies show a high >potential of dendrochronological material of the given region for >the building of absolute tree-ring chronology for the main >Holocene period (more than 6000 years). >2. The main factors were established which determined the >year-to-year variability as well as long-term variability of >larch growth in the study region. They are the early summer and >average annual air temperature and they determine up to 70% of the >total growth variability. >3. In long-term growth variability during two millennia the >millennial, the double secular and secular cycles as well as some >intrasecular cycles which are met the most often in tree growth >variability in polar latitudes of the northern hemisphere are >steadily seen. The most large warmings and falls of temperature >can be explained by matching particular cycles. >4. Reconstruction of the early summer and average annual >temperature variations in the east of Taymir and Putoran showed >good agreement of temperature variations in the given region with >temperature variations in the northern hemisphere obtained in >other indirect sources. The warming in the middle of the 20-th >century is not extraordinary. The warming at the border of the >1-st and 2-nd millennia was more long in time and similar in >amplitude. > > >The work was done under financial support of the Russian Foundation >of Fundamental Research (grant 96-04-48258) and European Community >Foundation (grant ADVANCE -10K). > >REFERENCES >1. Abaimov A.P., Bondarev A.V.,Zyryanova O.A., Shitova S.A. The Forests > of Polar Sector of Krasnoyarskii Krai.Novosibirsk, Nauka,1997,-207 pp. > (in Russ.). >2.Adamenko V.N.,Masanova M.D., Chetverikov A.F. Indication of climate > change. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1982, -110 pp. (in Russ.) >3. Bitvinskas T.T. Dendroclimatic research. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, > 1974,-170 pp. (in Russ.). >4. Budyko M.I., Izrael Yu.A. (eds.) Antropogenic climate changes. Gidro- > meteoizdat, Leningrad, 1987, -406 pp. (in Russ.). >5. Vaganov E.A., Vysotskaya L.G., Shashkin A.V. 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Cluwer Acad.Publ.,Dordtrecht, > 1990:302-308. >41.Methods of Dendrochronology.Applications in the Environmental Sciences > (E.Cook,L.Kairiukstis, eds.),Kluwer Acad.Publ.,Dordtrecht, 1990,-394 pp. >42.Schweingruber F.H., Briffa K.R.,Jones P.D. Yearly maps of summer temperatures > in Western Europe from A.D. 1750 to 1975 and Western North America from > 1600 to 1982: results of radiodensitometrical study on tree rings."Vegetatio", > 1991,92:5-71. >43.Schweingruber F.H. Tree Rings and Environment.Dendroecology. Paul Haupt > Publ.,Berne/Stuttgart/Vienna, 1996,-609 pp. >44.Vaganov E.A., Naurzbaev M.M.,Schweingruber F.H.,Briffa K.R.,Moell M. An > 840-year tree-ring width chronology for taymir as an indicator of summer > temperature changes."Dendrochronologia", 1996,14:193-205. > >Tabl.1.The main statistical characteristics of C1 chronology >_________________________________________________________________________ >Period Years Statistical parameters > Mean index Sensit. St.dev. 1-st autocorr. Coef.var. >___________________________________________________________________________ >212 BC- >1996 AD 2209 1.016 0.421 0.443 0.41 43.6 >212BC-287AD 500 1.014 0.411 0.482 0.53 47.5 >0-499AD 500 0.963 0.426 0.421 0.38 43.7 >500-999AD 500 0.982 0.457 0.441 0.38 44.9 >1000-1499AD 500 1.015 0.427 0.433 0.37 43.6 >1497-1996AD 500 1.039 0.339 0.441 0.44 42.4 >___________________________________________________________________________ > >Tabl.2. The relative power of different cyclic components in C1 chronology > (in % to common variation) >___________________________________________________________________________ >Period Spectral window > <600 years 220-600 years 120-220 years 60-120 years >___________________________________________________________________________ >81 BC-1996 AD 4.0 6.1 11.3 6.7 >0-499 AD 2.8 20.6 2.6 >500-999 AD 3.7 6.9 11.0 >1000-1499 AD 12.0 2.3 4.9 >1497-1996 AD 5.9 8.8 13.3 >___________________________________________________________________________ > >Tabl.3. Statistical evaluations of model for reconstruction early summer > temperature based on C2 chronology and annual temperature based on > C1 chronology >____________________________________________________________________________ > Calibration Verification >Period R^2 F value D-W statistics Period R^2 F value D-W statistics >____________________________________________________________________________ > early summer temperature >1933- >1989 0.59 79.6 1.914 > (p<0.00001) >---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >1960- 1933- >1989 0.72 72.7 1.907 1959 0.45 20.5 1.877 > (p<0.00001) (p<0.001) >_____________________________________________________________________________ > annual temperature (average) >1933- >1993 0.67 46.0 2.51 > (p<0.000001) >_____________________________________________________________________________ > >FIGURES > >Fig.1.The map of territory where wood samples were collected: 1- sites of > living old trees; 2- sites where wood remains of dead trees and > subfossil wood were collected; 3-recent polar timberline. >Fig.2.The variability of average tree-ring width (smoothed) in absolutely > dated (upper) and "floating"(below) Taymir chronology. The according > radiocarbon dates shown at right column. >Fig.3.Correlation of C2 index chronology with pentad temperatures (asterisk > shows the significant value of correlation coefficient). The many years > average temperature curve also shown as wide line. >Fig.4.Comparison between observed and calculated early summer (1) and annual > (2) temperature for Taymir. Empty columns indicate the residuals. >Fig.5.Reconstructed early summer temperature from C2 chronology: 1- 5-year > smoothing, 2- 57-year smoothing. >Fig.6.Comparison of long-term changes in annual temperature reconstructed > from Taymir C1 chronology (2) with oxygen isotopic ratio in Greenland > ice cores (2)(according to Burroughs,1992). > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > 3658. 1998-11-29 09:31:21 ______________________________________________________ cc: tar_reved@usgcrp.gov date: Sun, 29 Nov 1998 09:31:21 -0800 (PST) from: Stephen H Schneider subject: E-MAIL CONF FOR CHAPT 1 WG2 to: b.walker@dwe.csiro.au, baethgen@un.undp.org.uy, ch11@eng.cam.ac.uk, chris.hope@jims.cam.ac.uk, Dave Dokken , ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov, hssam@bath.ac.uk, jadejuwo@oauife.edu.ng, jpbruce@sympatico.ca, leary.neil@epamail.epa.gov, meteonat@telecom-plus.sn, rrichels@epri.com, "Dr. Jose Sarukhan" , shs@leland.Stanford.EDU, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele Hello All, and welcome to our two year process of preparing the introductory chapter for IPCC WG2 TAR(good thing all of you are familar with all this acronym stuff or we'd spend even more hours in front of computer screens than now!). Although two years seems like a long time, there will only be a handfull of meetings and many rounds of review and rewriting, so the idea of the e-mail conference that Neil Leary has set up is a good way to jump start our tasks--indeed, it worked well for Bad Munstereifel workshop and for a just concluded e-mail conference on four cross-cutting theme papers(I personally was involved in the uncertainties draft, and was very pleased at the good help we got). Our guidance from Neil in an e-mail dated 24 Nov( which unfortunately I didn't see until today as I'm on travel and will not be e-mail accessible again until next Saturday dec 5) outlines our tasks in two parts. Part I asks "authors of each chapter to communicate among themselves by e-mail regarding issues related to the development of their chapter." Part II (to begin Dec7 until Dec 14) will be devoted "to cross chapter working group issues..to provide authors an opportunity to discuss the [guidance]papers [already prepared and to be distributed by the TSU soon I presume] and provide authors an oportunity to discuss additional cross-cutting issues". My view is that we should combine these two functions, since our Chapter has a rather unique mission relative to other "more disciplinary" chapters: we are to write in clear generalist language( Scientific American style for example) why Impacts are important, and to provide clear but non-technical definitions of terms and concepts that will appear throughout the WG2 report(and cross-cuts to other working groups). That of necessity will force us to be "roving ambassadors" at Working Group meetings in the sense that our introductory roadmap to the entire WG2 report must be consitent with all the other chapters. Our task is not to summarize thier finding--that is what the SPM is for--but rather to put the purpose of the various other chapters in perspective and to help our very divese readership with a variety of backgrounds to have an overview of the connections between chapters. So while we will thus spend considerable time as individuals "crashing" the writing sessions of other chapters to assure that our introductory task is consistent with their detailed assessments, I believe we can most productively use the first part of our e-mail conference time reviewing the entire WG2 outline(attatched below) and then to be sure that our preliminary Chapter 1 outline is broadly consistent with the overall Working Group agenda. Although the Bad Munstereifel effort was directed at that goal(and a considerable effort from the CLAs and the TSU head after the B-M meeting), it undoubtedly could be improved. Also, if anyone sees parts of the Chapt 1 outline that seems particularly appropriate for that Lead Author, volunteers are welcome to take initial responsibility for drafting a more fleshed out next iteration outline. Finally, since we must be consitent in our definitions of many policy-related concepts(e.g., adaptability, integrated assessment etc) we will have to coordinate very closely with WG2 Chapt 19 lead Authors and a number of Chapters in WG3. Of course, when you all see the four latest versions of the cross-cutting guidance papers, it will be much easier for us to do our job of revising the current outline for Chapt 1 to be compatible with the rest of the Report. So in essence, we may need to postpone the bulk of our e-mail conversation a week or so until we've had a chance to read the four guidance papers. Neil and Dave Dokken will get a copy of this e-mail, and thus will soon alert us as to when to expect the guidance papers to arrive. Also, if anyone has technical problems(e.g., I can only down load Windows 95 attatchments in Word) we should let the TSU people help us solve those by letting them know the details as soon as possible. Although we have a very daunting task to summarize in clear language the main concepts and terms of the WG 2 report, I very much look forward to this challenge and to work with all of you in accomplishing our important task of helping decisionmakers and the scientific community alike to get a clear and credible picture of the state of the science in climatic impacts assessment research. Cheers, Steve PS- Note in particular the annoted version of Chapt 1 at the very end of the attatched e-mail from Dave Dokken. That is our first task--to make sure it is comprehensive and consistent with rest of WG2 Report, and then to flesh it out more and have individual Lead Authors volunteer to take resposibility for preparing each subsection of the first draft ------ Stephen H. Schneider Dept. of Biological Sciences Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A. Tel: (650)725-9978 Fax: (650)725-4387 shs@leland.stanford.edu ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 2 Nov 1998 17:58:44 -0500 From: Dave Dokken (excerpts from this e-mail appear below, SHS) ...the TSU will start sending out invitations to the First Lead Authors Meeting, which will be held in Geneva, Switzerland, 5-8 January 1999. Once those have gone out, we will initiate the e-mail conference (as indicated on the master schedule distributed 15 October). All of your team members should definitely be aware of their appointments, so you should feel free to broadcast your welcome if you have not done so already. In a couple of the preliminary contacts I've seen, however, I've noticed that outdated versions of the outline (pre-Vienna) were distributed. For ease of reference, I am lifting the approved WG2 outline AND the relevant portion of the annotated version that came out of the Scoping Meeting (Bad Munstereifel, June 1998). You'll note that the fleshed-out version does not exactly correspond with that of the abridged (approved at IPCC Plenary XIV). But it's fairly close. It's your job to bring them in line, and to hone the annotated outline in consultation with your team (identifying writing assignments in the process) and in the larger forum of the WG2-wide e-mail conference. We've yet to decide whether or not to confine the broader e-mail conference to just CLAs; including all LAs and REs could prove unwieldy. Sincerely, dave _________ [IPCC Plenary XIV -- Approved Abridged Version] IPCC Third Assessment Report Working Group II Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Chapter 1. Overview (15 pp.) Chapter 1 will explain the importance of the issue of climate change impacts on environmental and human systems, introduce some of the concepts and terms used in the report, and provide a guide for using the report in language accessible to non-specialist audiences. Executive Summary 1.1 Climate change impacts: what is potentially at stake 1.2 Overview of policy-relevant scientific/technical questions addressed in the report 1.3 The nature of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: illustration and integration of key concepts 1.4 Audiences and information needs addressed 1.5 "Users' Guide" to the WG II TAR (e.g., treatment of uncertainties/levels of confidence) Chapter 2. Methods and Tools (20 pp.) This chapter will assess approaches available in the literature and describe the methods and tools that will be used in regional and sectoral analyses. Executive Summary 2.1 Observational studies, including non-climate indicators of climate change and responses to climate variability 2.2 Methods for assessing impacts and vulnerability, including historical case studies, scenario analysis, thresholds, modeling, critical zones and populations, tolerable windows, and integrated assessment 2.3 Costing and valuation methods and issues (joint with WG III, Chapter 7) 2.4 Decision analytic methods and frameworks (joint with WG III, Chapter 10) 2.5 Alternative methods for explicitly incorporating uncertainty and characterizing "levels of confidence" Chapter 3: Development and Application of Scenarios in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment (20 pp.) Executive Summary 3.1 Definitions and uses of scenarios 3.2 Types of global change scenarios 3.3 Characterizing present-day conditions (baselines) 3.4 Developing socio-economic scenarios (c.f. WG III Chapter 2) 3.5 Developing land surface change scenarios 3.6 Developing environmental scenarios 3.7 Developing climate change scenarios (cross cut to WG I Chapter 13) 3.8 Representing feedbacks and consistency between scenarios 3.9 Description and evaluation of baseline data and projections provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC) 3.10 Facilitating the distribution, use, and interpretation of scenarios Part II. Sectors and Systems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Building on the conclusions of the SAR, recent developments in the state of knowledge of climate change impacts will be assessed. Special attention will be given to vulnerabilities, natural variability, baseline trends, cross-sectoral issues, non-linear interactions, and adaptation options. The developments in experimental work, observations, and modeling that contributed to advances in the state of knowledge will be assessed, including estimation of confidence in reported results. For major components and subcomponents, the chapters of this section will assess or review (as relevant): … Current status and projected trends/demands … Major findings of SAR with respect to systems and human uses … Analysis of natural response of systems (sensitivity, vulnerability, adaptation) using scenarios as per Chapter 3 … New knowledge, including: a. direct effects of CO2 fertilization/N deposition, surface ozone b. direct effects of climate variables c. effects of variability/extreme events d. interactions with other environmental conditions (e.g., pollution) e. effects on production, distribution (market/non-market) systems, and human communities f. effects on biodiversity and wildlifeg. potential surprises, thresholds, and indicators of system instability h. directed adaptation and responses i. tools/methods/approaches/models used in developing new knowledge, including assumptions, sensitivities, and scenarios used in models Chapter 4: Hydrology and Water Resources (20 pp.) Executive Summary 4.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 4.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources 4.3 The hydrological cycle, including precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, groundwater, and extreme hydrological events, including effects on erosion 4.4 Water demands (quantity and quality) for natural and managed ecosystems, municipal, industrial, navigation, and recreational uses, and competition among demands 4.5 Water supply (quantity and quality) for different types of systems 4.6 Management implications and adaptation options, including responses to extreme hydrological events 4.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 4.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 5: Natural and Managed Ecosystems (40 pp.) Executive Summary 5.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 5.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on landscapes: global distribution of biomes/vegetation types/ecotones, including transitions from one type of system to another; ecosystem functions/processes, including state of knowledge of carbon budget; biodiversity, migratory wildlife, and endangered species; protected areas and conservation reserves; global markets and distribution of food and fiber 5.3 Agriculture 5.4 Grasslands/Rangelands/Grazing systems 5.5 Savannas/Woodlands 5.6 Forests/Forestry 5.7 Deserts 5.8 Lakes/Streams/Freshwater fisheries and aquaculture 5.9 Wetlands 5.10 Mountain Regions 5.11 Cryosphere 5.12 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, adaptation potential and opportunities, valuation of systems and their services, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 5.13 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 6: Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems (20 pp.) Executive Summary 6.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 6.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on coastal zones and marine ecosystems, including sea-level rise 6.3 Ecosystems (including fisheries) and biogeochemical functions 6.4 Biogeophysical aspects of coastal zones 6.5 Indices of social and economic vulnerability of coastal zones to climate change and sea-level change 6.6 Adaptation 6.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 6.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 7: Energy, Industry, and Settlements (20 pp.) Executive Summary 7.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 7.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on human population migration/security and settlements 7.3 Industry, energy, transportation, and other climate-sensitive sectors 7.4 Infrastructure (e.g., utilities, waste management, sanitation) 7.5 Vulnerabilities of human settlements by type (e.g., coastal, arid region, agrarian, urban) 7.6 Management implications and adaptation options 7.7 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 7.8 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 8: Financial Services (15 pp.) Executive Summary 8.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 8.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptation 8.3 Financial aspects of impacts and adaptation 8.4 Institutional mechanisms to cover the cost of impacts and adaptation investment, including insurance, governmental, and multi-lateral mechanisms 8.5 Private-sector mechanisms, including primary insurance and reinsurance 8.6 Governmental and multilateral financial mechanisms 8.7 Other financial services 8.8 Case studies 8.9 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, potential for non-linear interactions, and other cross-cutting issues 8.10 Science and information needs, including monitoring Chapter 9: Human Health (20 pp.) Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction and scope (including types of effects and cross-sectoral impacts) 9.2 The state of knowledge of climate change impacts on health 9.3 Sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability 9.4 Thermal stresses (heatwaves, cold seasons) 9.5 Extreme weather events 9.6 Air pollution (gases, fine particulates) 9.7 Aeroallergens (spores, moulds, etc.) 9.8 Vector-borne infectious diseases 9.9 Other infectious diseases (esp. water-borne and food-borne) 9.10 Integration, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures; identification of key vulnerabilities; health as integrating concept and its relationship to water resources/quality, food/fiber security, natural and managed ecosystems interactions, and socio-economic disruption/migration; potential for non-linear interactions; and other cross-cutting issues 9.11 Science and information needs, including monitoring Part III. Regional Analyses: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Each chapter will focus on key findings of the Regional Impacts Special Report and update regional baselines and trends (climate, socio-economic, and other environmental). Each chapter and subchapter will explore what has been learned regarding the context of change, sensitivity, adaptation, and vulnerability of key sectors and an integrated cross-sectoral and cross-regional analyses. The template will be tailored as appropriate for each region, giving full consideration to social/equity issues relevant to the region or sectors. Common template for each chapter Executive Summary X.1 Summary of the important issues in the Regional Impacts Special Report X.2 Baseline data, including climatic and socio-economic X.3 Regional scenarios X.4 Hydrology and water resources X.5 Ecosystems and agriculture, including food security X.6 Coastal zones and marine ecosystems, and sea-level change X.7 Energy, industry, and settlements X.8 Financial services X.9 Human health X.10 Integration and synthesis, including relative importance of climate change and other pressures, identification of key vulnerabilities, adaptation potential and opportunities, valuation of systems and their services, potential for non-linear interactions, risks and uncertainties, and other cross-cutting issues. A variety of approaches will be used, including historical case studies, scenario analysis, thresholds, modeling, critical zones and populations, tolerable windows, and integrated assessment Chapter 10: Africa (25 pp.) Chapter 11: Asia (45 pp.) Chapter 12: Australasia (20 pp.) Chapter 13: Europe (25 pp.) Chapter 14: Latin America (25 pp.) Chapter 15: North America (25 pp.) Chapter 16: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic) (15 pp.) Chapter 17: Small Island States (25 pp.) Part IV. Global Issues and Synthesis This section will focus on cross sectoral and cross regional analyses, building upon the preceding sections and considering cumulative effects. Such comparison will allow relative scaling of vulnerability across sectors and regions with respect to ecosystems, including wildlife, hydrology and water resources, agriculture and forestry, coastal zones and marine ecosystems, human settlements, financial services, and human health. This section will synthesize the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Chapter 18. Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity (20 pp.) This chapter will analyze the opportunities for and barriers to adaptation identified in the regional chapters of the report. It will highlight options for a) the UNFCCC; b) multilateral organizations; c) national governments; and d) other actors (including the private sector) to facilitate adaptation, particularly for vulnerable populations, countries, or zones. The chapter will be organized around a series of key questions. Executive Summary 18.1 Summary of sectoral and regional changes, and adaptation options 18.2 Lessons learned from past experience with adaptation to climate variability and change, including discussion of importance of time frames 18.3 Factors that account for adaptation success (and failure), and current trends 18.4 Adaptation to climate change in the development context 18.5 Equity and adaptation to climate change 18.6 Barriers and limits that hinder adaptation, and options for enhancing successful adaptation Chapter 19: Synthesis and Integration of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (35 pp.) In this chapter, emphasis will be placed on Article 2 of the UNFCCC and key provisions [e.g., Articles 2.3, 3.14, and 10(d)] of the Kyoto Protocol, drawing on important issues that occur in many regions/sectors, or for which there will be cross-regional or global interactions. Potential global impacts of stabilization of atmospheric concentrations of GHGs at a variety of levels will be assessed, including assessment of uncertainties. Information from the other sections of the report also will be integrated to address key policy-relevant questions identified by Parties to the UNFCCC and other stakeholders. The authors will assess vulnerability within the framework of sustainable development and equity, acknowledging common but differentiated responsibilities. The chapter will be divided into the following sections: Executive Summary 19.1 Impacts associated with different rates and magnitudes of change: A review of comprehensive approaches, including intercomparison of results 19.2 Comparative analysis of vulnerability in different regions and across different sectors/systems 19.3 Analysis of sensitivities and critical thresholds of change (magnitudes and rates) for sectors and systems, including biospheric components of the climate system 19.4 What observations are necessary to test estimates of the relationship between emissions trajectories and impacts? 19.5 The potential for unexpected changes 19.6 Strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, and implicit research needs 19.7 Analyses focusing on policy-relevant scientific/technical questions, including decisionmaking in the face of uncertainties; state of knowledge regarding the extent and distribution of vulnerability; equity issues; and, with Working Group III, balancing adaptation and mitigation. TOTAL PAGE LENGTH = ~450 pp. (plus references) _____________ [Bad Munstereifel - Annotated Version] Part I. Setting the Stage for Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Assessment Chapter 1. Overview of Impacts Issues Chapter 1 will explain the importance of the issue of climate change impacts on environmental and human systems, introduce some of the concepts and terms used in the report, and provide a guide for using the report in language accessible to non-specialist audiences. 1.1 Climate change impacts: what is potentially at stake … Context of change-current state of human-environment system, and disturbances to and response of this system, including issues such as globalization, economic and social change, land-use changes, and relationships with sustainability) … An overview of kinds of potential effects and indicators of change … Potential interactive and combined effects, e.g., fragmented habitats and climate change; interacting effects of changes in surface temperature, CO2, O3 on plant growth and productivity; and interaction of global, regional, and local environmental changes on human health 1.2 Overview of policy-relevant scientific/technical questions addressed in the report … Impacts associated with different rates and magnitudes of change … Thresholds and unexpected, non-linear interactions … Valuation of impacts and equity-efficiency issues … Particularly vulnerable populations, countries, and zones … Adaptation options: synergies and tradeoffs with other environmental/social issues … Synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation … Synergies and trade-offs between early and delayed response 1.3 The nature of vulnerability: illustration and integration of key concepts … Interactions of sensitivity, adaptation, and other key concepts … Complexities of analysis (e.g., risk, uncertainty, extreme events, scaling, multidisciplinarity, validation) 1.4 Audiences and information needs addressed … UNFCCC: assessment of vulnerability and options for adaptation in UNFCCC (Article 2) and Kyoto Protocol … Desertification and Biodiversity Conventions: linkages with climate change, effects of linkages on vulnerability … Resource planners and managers in national and sub-national institutions … Specialized international institutions … NGOs, businesses and other groups 1.5 "Users' Guide" for the Assessment 2466. 1998-11-30 15:31:48 ______________________________________________________ cc: mcdougall@marine.csiro.au, David.Jackett@marine.csiro.au, m.e.mcintyre@damtp.cam.ac.uk, John.Church@marine.csiro.au, jmgregory@meto.gov.uk, wigley@meeker.ucar.edu, s.raper@uea.ac.uk, spo@dar.csiro.au, m.england@unsw.edu.au, ach@dar.csiro.au date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 15:31:48 +1100 from: Trevor McDougall subject: Re: Thermal expansion to: Jonathan Gregory , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk Dear All, A few comments on the thermal expansion issues. First, Tim suggests that we may have prejudged the answer when we reduced the Greens function in the lowest layer of our model. Without claiming that that model is the last word, this is best answered by imagining the result we would have obtained if we had not reduced the Greens function in that way. Then the thermal expansion would have been overestimated with a model that had been tuned to today's ocean circulation. So we had not prejudged the issue:- to get the best fit we might have had to increase the Green's function rather than decrease it. Of course, in our present and continuing work we are adressing the issue of the slowing THC in a more comprehensive fashion by allowing the response functions of all layers to be a function of the globally averaged sea surface temperature. In some layers we fully expect the ventillation rate to increase while in others it will decrease. In the meantime, we intend to be more circumspect in the discussion of these issues in the next draft of the present Jackett et al manuscript. Then there is the issue about the existing THC giving up heat to the atmosphere and warming Europe. When the THC slows there will be less heat delivered in this way to the atmosphere which would tend to increase the thermal expansion. But, if there is less heat delivered to the atmosphere in this latitude band, then there will also be correspondingly less heat taken from the atmosphere at low latitudes, so this argument is not conclusive. The argument about the Deacon Cell is very unsatisfying to a physical oceanographer. The Deacon Cell is a phenomenon that occurs when averaging in Cartesian coordinates and appears to be a diabatic circulation. However, the Deacon Cell, and in particular, its diabatic nature, is simply an artifact of the averaging. As Doos & Webb, and McIntosh & McDougall have explained, when doing the zonal averaging in density coordinates, the Deacon Cell disappears. In fact Doos & Webb have defined the Deacon Cell in just this fashion as the cell that appears under z-coordinate averaging but not under density-coordinate averaging. The Deacon Cell corresponds to the Ferrel cells in the atmosphere (see Karoly et al, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 1997, 123, 519-526). The Deacon Cell is primarily wind-driven and since it is the result of a three-dimensional circulation that is adiabatic, we would not want to model it in a diffusive way. It is this desire to (a) not prejudge the signs of the answers (of SST increase and thermal expansion trend), and (b) have a closer resemblence between the physical balance of the model and of reality that has driven us to embark on the present project. At the end of the day, any simplified model will have an element of tuning involved in it as it strives to mimick a fully coupled three-dimensional model. As physical oceanographers, we are very uncomfortable with a model that is knowingly constructed as diffusive when we all agree that this is not the primary balance in the ocean or in the coupled models. It is our intuition that the slowing circulation will lead the a smaller-than-otherwise thermal expansion and probably a higher-than-otherwise SST trend. However, we are prepared to be surprised by the fully coupled model results. The work we are doing will answer this question, and we will not be prejudging the answer. Given the interest this discussion has generated in the above email group, it is our intention to write up some notes about the work we are embarked upon and to circulate it among the group for comment. With best wishes, Trevor & David. ______________________________________________________________________ From: Dr Trevor J McDougall [address for couriers] CSIRO Marine Research CSIRO Marine Research GPO Box 1538 Castray Esplanade Hobart, TAS 7001 Hobart, TAS 7000 Australia Australia +61-3-6232-5250 (telephone) +61-3-6232-5123 (fax) 4776. 1998-12-09 17:31:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 17:31:57 +0300 (MSK) from: From to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk From: To: Keith Briffa Subject: Some information about the super-long tree-ring chronology the East of Taymir and Putoran (09.12.1998) Dear Keith, Send to you all data and reference: M.M.Naurzbaev, E.A.Vaganov VARIABILITY OF LARCH RADIAL GROWTH IN THE EAST OF TAYMIR AND PUTORAN FOR THE LAST 2000 YEARS // "Lesovedenie" (Russ. Forest. J.), 1999 (in press) FILES: 1)tay1998.rwm -> Tree-ring widths (TRW), all calendar dated series 2)rcs.crv -> RCS-curve standartization (Briffa et al, 1992,1996) Best wishes, Gene and Muchtar 09.12.98 ******************************************************************************* 1)tay1998.rwm: 08APR1997(101 series) + 14MART1998(1 ser.) + 10JN1998(16 series) = 118 series all calendar dated series (trees) 634=N -212=I KTU243me -2(26F3.0)~ 23 24 42 14 27 21 13 28 20 30 38 65 58 54 66 65 16 55 46 56 53 68 29 21 48 15 29 25 32 22 31 29 18 27 53 41 35 47 66 89 52 28 34 39 33 25 28 36 32 43 47 63 49 49 50 65 49 44 40 56 33 28 55 49 50 26 21 41 9 21 34 46 54 29 47 37 30 52 56 46 35 44 71 53 73 87 75 65 45 48 63 37 32 30 41 32 37 49 37 60 62 57 55 79 46 91 56 92 74 62105 90 54 64 77 38 52 78 86 58 72 70 76 65104 55 56 36 67 28 39 51 48 43 56 82 76 67 61 34 32 24 54 34 69 50 49 36 79 90 63 72 75 80 62 39 48 40 51 55 52 53 55 51 55 57 45 36 41 46 3 30 55 45 42 32 36 40 50 27 16 41 19 28 40 41 30 22 8 17 26 23 26 19 21 27 15 18 11 20 13 22 9 24 17 20 22 11 28 16 22 21 13 14 19 24 37 21 1 18 14 14 9 14 10 16 17 4 18 20 13 16 17 0 18 12 13 18 10 9 12 12 5 0 18 12 2 23 6 9 7 7 12 12 17 16 8 13 5 14 13 9 15 14 16 17 14 16 18 10 17 19 32 28 23 20 18 23 10 26 14 25 24 16 22 26 19 19 32 28 20 20 30 35 30 24 30 22 20 21 30 30 23 27 27 26 17 21 32 27 19 19 23 20 20 23 18 10 0 13 6 2 19 11 8 10 12 9 12 10 13 15 15 21 28 20 14 30 20 24 25 32 36 33 22 7 16 20 24 7 5 9 17 10 10 13 18 9 6 15 17 23 19 16 12 18 21 34 27 23 34 17 37 33 19 12 20 26 16 23 28 19 5 26 20 15 26 18 22 10 17 21 5 5 9 15 19 19 6 14 7 16 12 20 8 24 21 23 15 21 15 7 13 10 15 12 13 13 7 7 8 0 3 13 8 19 9 12 0 12 12 6 10 13 20 13 9 12 8 17 12 15 21 23 14 10 11 20 24 18 23 18 30 19 16 13 17 31 22 32 31 41 36 29 41 34 21 10 25 25 25 23 23 24 17 21 20 26 20 25 31 25 40 6 25 28 20 14 25 15 26 14 30 25 45 36 49 32 27 35 20 15 18 34 31 23 22 29 44 21 11 31 28 12 21 20 27 14 21 21 19 16 23 26 25 43 29 24 24 22 17 21 11 19 30 15 25 25 33 40 40 31 15 19 24 27 27 37 37 27 0 15 12 3 15 20 17 26 19 6 12 15 16 3 10 17 18 17 23 14 20 6 18 20 26 24 32 45 26 20 27 14 36 28 17 23 17 13 20 21 11 11 2 21 9 19 19 35 31 24 20 17 21 34 23 13 15 22 35 38 54 41 54 24 50 52 27 20 21 21 13 32 19 28 24 13 26 41 54 41 47 31 34 21 797=N -157=I ktu255me -2(26F3.0)~ 47 31 40 53 74 23 33 55 32 39 23 28 60 4 24 44 28 54 31 48 45 16 32 17 4 16 16 34 50 72 61 53 38 33 55 34 45 58 70 82 52 59 68 51 40 95 68 37 68 44 90 72 90 44 43 66 42 22 57 76 35 40 44 65 38 45 38 35 35 54 43 62 29 49 14 27 25 5 22 25 50 37 29 24 9 5 7 31 9 17 2 9 10 26 21 23 34 33 32 39 25 43 24 46 49 38 50 75 32 39 62 34 23 33 49 11 33 44 30 27 23 23 35 27 29 15 43 11 22 44 28 15 10 7 24 16 22 19 13 19 11 18 18 8 19 12 14 9 15 6 18 11 5 12 11 17 11 2 9 12 9 17 3 0 17 7 11 10 13 15 19 16 1 24 21 13 22 14 2 22 15 12 16 9 16 19 31 8 2 24 13 0 26 8 7 7 10 12 16 15 13 13 13 4 26 17 11 12 15 22 28 17 18 12 5 19 16 9 20 13 20 13 16 3 12 1 10 12 10 13 19 15 12 19 9 4 11 18 19 12 16 7 10 21 17 20 30 8 15 25 24 6 10 27 29 14 17 24 15 16 23 26 15 5 30 19 4 24 11 6 11 10 14 19 16 13 8 14 17 20 15 20 32 12 16 26 20 27 34 20 11 21 20 15 8 14 20 27 20 11 19 16 8 7 24 10 21 8 17 7 19 8 19 13 16 15 3 23 18 10 4 14 15 4 13 15 18 1 25 7 10 19 8 17 11 17 25 0 3 10 10 8 12 2 14 4 12 13 10 1 4 13 9 4 14 8 2 12 1 11 10 18 18 2 12 7 0 7 14 2 17 10 12 0 15 6 5 3 18 13 4 5 14 14 20 7 15 11 25 15 4 7 31 25 9 11 7 20 6 15 25 18 19 14 28 22 33 16 23 36 33 11 18 29 27 21 19 22 29 19 26 32 34 14 18 22 25 36 11 38 34 22 15 26 14 28 9 27 20 45 29 33 23 18 21 13 13 17 41 8 19 27 33 34 19 9 36 16 7 30 39 32 22 28 35 25 16 22 25 29 32 26 36 31 30 24 16 15 12 35 8 44 35 38 40 44 26 9 25 49 17 37 28 33 30 7 41 33 10 40 30 45 32 39 15 17 38 28 4 13 33 19 23 27 21 16 13 25 31 24 55 49 40 22 29 33 13 47 11 35 32 20 29 34 34 18 55 6 38 31 49 54 51 51 30 38 28 20 41 42 12 26 56 37 36 47 16 50 24 58 46 21 36 36 35 17 37 23 40 22 15 39 55 53 39 52 47 30 10 38 32 49 41 13 33 25 49 26 49 31 57 43 45 18 61 27 52 57 40 30 38 41 43 39 38 31 20 41 41 32 38 30 36 46 37 44 51 17 45 43 44 25 21 23 42 35 47 33 37 16 39 11 29 27 31 46 30 36 34 39 28 33 24 42 50 23 42 49 31 38 37 20 36 36 16 25 33 53 26 41 5 39 28 24 26 13 50 23 31 21 28 17 42 19 16 35 23 45 33 40 25 57 43 33 56 6 37 12 35 25 7 50 36 2 4 16 43 19 12 35 6 12 16 19 34 26 34 21 25 0 21 43 20 37 32 30 50 29 16 25 35 39 28 28 30 20 43 41 15 26 19 17 18 35 16 46 56 46 38 15 39 28 31 42 25 32 27 48 32 56 18 47 31 21 15 10 16 25 22 16 14 22 23 19 19 20 21 19 18 10 9 22 21 17 18 14 8 22 15 25 13 18 15 27 6 13 12 9 8 10 16 18 16 9 15 18 22 552=N -135=I ktu258me -2(26F3.0)~ 109 87 48 63 59112 97113103 83 71 52 63 65 79 92 74126 76114 89 90120141121 83 112 74149 93127 96 75121 97 85122125 67 92105 91112 90102106 88129114124 53 74 36 53 54 21 55 78 99107 86106 82 28 40 82 35 46 27 66 40 56 81 86 70 76 64 58 41 70 38 69 56 37 29 54 24 34 38 23 29 48 55 11 27 37 36 34 48 32 51 39 44 18 56 16 21 54 47 22 28 14 38 24 33 36 26 22 13 38 2 25 38 25 30 21 34 15 32 25 11 37 30 41 28 19 16 32 26 36 19 2 23 14 18 15 18 24 30 18 2 20 28 23 30 27 1 35 23 15 25 15 24 20 25 12 8 48 29 7 37 17 20 15 29 15 29 24 17 19 7 2 31 18 14 12 18 22 26 17 16 20 9 26 20 12 29 10 18 9 22 5 23 4 24 21 12 17 28 19 22 29 26 9 18 22 19 15 22 6 4 20 9 12 17 2 9 15 13 4 5 20 11 11 12 18 15 23 15 17 10 2 25 6 5 26 18 4 6 6 16 12 16 22 19 24 27 31 24 18 31 13 11 20 13 23 18 11 2 13 10 16 2 6 9 10 4 9 8 9 7 5 15 4 17 5 18 4 23 11 34 11 14 19 0 20 17 9 3 11 14 4 12 9 16 2 19 3 5 10 3 13 7 13 14 0 2 4 13 12 12 5 18 6 13 15 12 6 12 9 17 9 9 10 2 24 5 6 9 14 22 10 9 16 3 14 14 6 23 18 18 3 19 13 14 11 23 28 16 15 19 13 25 7 14 16 23 19 6 8 16 14 6 16 4 13 5 15 10 16 14 10 18 12 18 16 15 16 24 7 13 16 9 18 19 27 33 28 27 34 30 11 13 17 20 27 11 17 27 18 17 25 6 26 14 31 20 44 36 29 19 12 11 15 6 8 29 20 23 27 25 33 22 8 29 14 8 14 36 21 25 20 34 20 19 24 21 20 23 23 21 18 22 19 13 11 7 28 2 30 23 23 33 25 20 5 11 28 7 28 23 25 22 8 20 25 11 31 33 24 16 21 2 12 24 14 5 11 28 24 18 27 20 12 6 21 31 32 26 30 23 19 17 22 6 32 18 11 17 12 22 16 17 6 26 5 12 15 21 23 26 39 19 12 15 12 23 18 11 16 35 25 19 23 15 25 11 19 20 12 15 25 30 14 24 12 16 11 5 20 23 33 209=N -126=I KTU265me -2(26F3.0)~ 42 41 43 49 34 27 20 20 26 16 17 30 22 22 31 34 23 31 30 59 54106 54 45 75 70 36 64 98 36 59 71112 65 25 62101130155160115 62 93 24 69 53 15 42 55 81100135 110 67 56 55115 42 77 27 37 33 53 56 51 52 52 67 69 50 73 35 56 44 26 43 61 26 29 49 24 17 45 45 5 35 45 31 36 27 32 41 43 30 12 61 18 26 54 50 34 26 17 44 48 28 22 16 20 32 27 22 17 22 11 16 12 24 16 20 22 12 20 24 34 25 18 18 23 33 42 17 1 22 17 16 9 22 23 23 20 4 18 32 23 25 31 1 39 12 10 19 8 23 18 27 8 7 29 13 5 26 2 5 5 9 7 13 7 12 5 3 2 15 6 10 8 13 11 13 20 18 15 6 8 16 14 35 15 20 14 15 5 14 2 13 18 9 19 24 14 18 24 17 12 17 21 22 32 178=N -81=I KTU254me -2(26F3.0)~ 18 5 13 13 24 28 26 15 5 2 1 12 11 21 15 18 13 22 32 15 18 13 19 27 20 27 24 26 32 26 15 29 61 50 77 52 54 78123 25 45 52 48 39 62 86 94 61 35 6 36 15 23 50 46 30 23 10 40 50 66 63 44 55 30 44 21 11 12 0 16 17 35 44 67 64 29 55 47 50 43 20 24 44 57 80 65 6 31 44 38 27 49 53 75 74 22 64 57 19 37 48 7 43 45 33 43 28 43 54 56 23 14 57 52 19 64 33 20 29 47 44 42 79 87 40 57 16 41 40 17 19 25 50 39 42 73 79 38 77 42 44 51 40 29 38 35 15 41 6 36 33 23 52 48 83 76 89 29 16 43 49 63 36 39 20 27 64 46 62 70 15 28 41 50 7 12 22 304=N -3=I KTU260me -2(26F3.0)~ 7 4 4 3 3 3 5 8 10 2 7 5 2 3 5 8 4 7 4 8 9 3 9 5 1 7 4 6 7 3 6 7 12 11 2 13 10 1 7 6 4 3 3 3 7 12 7 6 6 3 11 11 3 10 12 23 17 14 44 34 20 13 2 15 15 11 12 15 20 8 16 11 7 12 8 6 9 12 21 36 24 19 22 42 47 40 51 56 39 52 49 63 50 22 25 33 36 26 43 72 56 64 41 76 47 31 49 56 41 13 55 37 7 57 84 26 39 43 69 60 66 64 43 81 80 88 38 34 60 40 35 72 76 90110 78 49 63 82 87 18 20 16 47 38 30 48 53 50 53 97 76 83 57 81 58 78 52 97 81 57 78 34 96 59 54 21 41 51 22 48 61 62 8 35 15 23 46 32 69 36 46 57 6 14 26 49 37 46 37 71 37 26 29 39 15 36 36 33 17 31 17 7 22 9 12 19 23 33 9 11 6 1 5 17 4 20 9 13 1 20 11 5 7 22 19 12 8 21 17 31 11 20 9 24 16 4 16 35 34 22 28 16 26 13 27 21 14 32 37 38 24 34 46 52 55 71 28 27 52 36 32 38 15 30 23 28 26 32 12 18 29 28 63 12 28 36 21 21 23 16 29 12 4 43 84 44 33 44 27 23 12 12 16 30 12 14 24 25 27 17 1 34 20 397=N 86=I KTU262dd -2(26F3.0)~ 8 15 20 31 38 47 24 19 45 49 68 48 34 19 32 18 31 46 38 24 8 21 49 36 51 33 22 32 40 63 49 32 38 39 41 42 45 29 38 52 36 51 76 65 92 79 49 28 51 45 55 17 13 19 25 34 22 31 40 58 46 39 26 34 25 40 25 30 36 72 48 37 58 28 60 74 49 23 38 45 29 45 38 34 2 34 26 14 32 19 48 30 44 37 5 29 47 47 48 52 21 52 18 24 32 22 14 36 23 25 15 20 20 4 10 8 10 14 21 30 17 16 18 0 10 25 7 21 12 13 0 23 20 12 12 38 30 20 28 27 22 49 12 26 21 24 18 9 17 39 35 14 24 12 32 19 31 23 18 32 25 33 26 44 40 36 37 34 17 19 40 32 29 32 21 29 19 24 26 28 16 22 35 40 80 34 56 76 45 41 60 45 71 20 54 45 84 52 51 47 42 58 40 32 20 62 23 36 60 53 54 24 22 65 39 20 24 55 58 34 84 63 72 38 49 51 50 55 38 30 51 35 41 32 18 29 74 20 62 53 53 42 55 35 12 15 40 23 34 32 45 29 10 24 41 14 34 45 39 30 33 0 17 28 26 8 12 39 43 40 33 23 19 7 26 44 43 41 52 61 37 23 36 4 53 22 25 30 20 21 31 23 7 43 0 36 23 30 43 43 48 39 37 23 15 44 34 18 19 48 35 29 35 16 47 16 31 34 19 27 29 27 11 31 24 31 16 16 23 30 35 30 35 28 21 2 20 30 37 31 14 24 20 40 14 26 21 25 28 24 6 36 19 36 38 22 16 22 26 22 27 14 22 10 19 25 23 6 39 20 15 32 25 30 8 18 21 26 31 18 19 13 26 20 16 11 8 23 24 14 10 36 20 23 21 16 26 656=N 122=I KTU239dd -2(26F3.0)~ 69 41 37 53 79 56143 95 79 66 73 20 68 45 80 17 30 25 63 40 53 57 62 28 25 65 78 93 79 75 48 61 34 52 86 71 87 21 83 67 35 12 32 28 19 61 55 51 6 51 26 18 41 27 58 29 27 49 2 6 6 9 14 20 4 19 7 13 10 12 5 16 13 10 5 11 6 4 18 6 9 6 8 11 4 4 15 3 7 15 10 12 7 9 12 6 10 6 11 14 10 7 14 14 16 14 11 16 17 18 6 0 11 23 30 18 23 16 22 18 20 22 14 18 16 17 23 25 17 32 24 30 18 15 20 20 29 23 11 11 6 12 16 16 10 14 17 12 20 4 15 25 34 15 18 12 18 7 18 10 25 37 14 24 14 23 11 11 14 34 20 18 20 21 20 10 3 17 8 5 15 19 14 8 19 23 21 20 20 32 25 53 34 19 30 38 22 18 5 13 24 3 18 14 9 16 15 7 0 12 21 7 12 10 17 16 2 16 15 10 21 31 23 31 25 5 7 23 16 2 9 18 11 10 23 20 25 5 24 37 37 49 70 86 39 27 28 10 31 12 27 12 16 24 23 36 22 35 7 30 27 46 51 56 26 17 22 20 27 52 59 22 21 54 64 41 31 17 49 17 41 38 20 36 45 25 15 27 12 29 15 19 23 43 36 46 40 36 34 2 30 24 24 32 13 34 25 54 20 29 18 30 24 14 10 48 31 47 62 45 33 24 26 35 36 24 51 23 35 25 34 15 33 18 22 22 36 75 17 14 10 17 8 2 14 14 15 9 16 13 18 15 10 17 16 15 43 20 21 30 22 47 28 11 19 23 11 22 37 23 17 26 15 10 22 7 9 18 22 10 20 8 12 23 21 25 6 35 21 30 21 45 28 59 1 21 35 24 41 41 35 26 60 73 24 25 5 22 12 30 45 7 43 36 0 0 24 23 17 10 19 0 15 7 11 17 9 23 16 36 0 22 63 25 19 27 34 44 30 32 41 30 36 26 24 32 18 37 46 14 35 45 23 40 51 21 26 32 38 34 16 39 31 46 66 39 34 24 32 29 50 26 25 26 17 22 18 2 23 14 19 11 17 22 27 22 43 52 19 23 10 3 23 20 15 13 17 12 22 3 17 12 15 17 26 2 7 12 23 17 24 34 34 34 8 16 23 14 21 14 29 24 44 25 21 22 17 21 29 25 30 27 8 36 13 27 35 43 35 34 22 23 32 20 16 34 23 14 27 20 12 20 24 32 21 21 8 23 24 17 1 8 12 10 7 12 20 7 0 24 12 11 16 17 18 9 14 24 20 20 14 18 27 32 36 0 31 20 33 9 22 33 20 39 10 27 35 42 24 20 23 16 12 18 15 18 14 19 10 17 13 16 21 13 24 11 18 24 10 21 16 12 17 11 17 15 35 23 19 18 9 20 2 25 5 17 8 34 15 19 13 26 19 29 16 22 22 26 23 21 16 8 11 7 14 2 181=N 240=I KTU261 -2(26F3.0)~ 130 77 71 44 73104130180110101110 98 80 62 21 29 64 52 39 36 16 28 17 20 24 40 22 38 38 31 57 14 42 47 22 28 24 14 26 7 24 21 44 29 31 31 18 26 12 16 13 35 15 28 42 43 41 22 1 35 10 9 21 28 29 24 41 31 30 29 11 32 34 45 41 40 60 56 53 50 22 17 38 8 34 37 41 45 61 39 8 17 45 21 27 22 36 38 5 26 62 14 45 45 32 32 32 7 10 33 34 17 10 43 42 45100 62 29 25 59 92 63 52 67 85 60 44 59 17 55 39 46 31 21 24 27 33 14 47 1 19 22 36 38 39 37 30 30 18 12 30 31 12 21 41 34 38 39 22 36 14 16 20 11 36 29 19 17 21 13 16 6 7 12 19 25 18 24 22 18 154=N 267=I KTU252dd -2(26F3.0)~ 66 63 62 96 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28 48 35 65 59 48 37 19 26 37 36 24 378=N 513=I KTU247dd -2(26F3.0)~ 11 12 15 13 17 18 10 12 15 11 3 14 15 10 13 2 7 4 22 46 13 39 46 3 10 17 30 15 5 19 4 6 2 4 7 10 8 12 16 4 20 34 23 33 36 24 60 60 41 30 46 43 38 17 24 20 56 65 21 35 21 26 29 33 17 36 53 75 42 29 75 68 47 65 53 87 40 71 52 94 57109 98 36 40 44 8 47 66 79 49 47 72 53 48 67 45 37 44 37 26 37 47 49 58 45 26 63 19 79 44 36 51 70 10 6 19 26 14 23 19 25 23 9 21 35 23 27 22 24 15 39 19 36 46 20 34 32 19 30 26 2 29 3 30 54 49 40 26 13 31 41 19 40 43 22 9 39 19 23 30 38 46 25 19 2 18 24 23 0 0 21 18 13 16 26 2 0 26 24 18 20 22 23 9 16 19 10 16 6 30 14 39 21 0 34 24 19 2 30 7 9 25 6 19 32 20 22 5 23 14 2 21 15 11 13 13 13 11 7 22 16 22 18 9 15 26 13 43 18 0 21 18 15 2 38 42 26 7 4 26 2 28 0 9 21 28 13 9 13 28 17 26 11 23 29 5 21 16 11 14 12 11 21 4 14 15 0 23 9 21 7 33 23 29 30 32 53 8 33 36 17 13 23 4 22 13 7 20 2 15 3 7 13 2 4 13 5 19 4 10 5 0 8 12 14 16 17 9 3 15 7 12 0 5 7 15 25 18 11 22 0 5 11 7 16 4 27 50 23 13 26 9 5 14 19 11 17 6 8 19 0 0 11 17 3 8 6 3 14 13 2 10 14 11 9 10 0 1 7 12 11 5 2 9 18 13 23 6 14 0 0 20 13 11 10 5 14 237=N 632=I KTU269 -2(26F3.0)~ 9 12 13 6 6 7 11 3 4 7 13 7 4 5 15 20 20 11 19 12 10 18 7 28 14 14 6 8 7 15 6 5 6 5 16 23 24 2 30 22 19 12 21 23 27 43 21 57 91100 30 11 43 67 60 60 54 12 0 51 63 65 68 67 97 43 38 59 48 48 26 52 33 94130 30 95 74 76 40130110 33 89 41 66 81 77 60 46 51 44 23 79 96 55 61 45 73130 51 88 16 71 67 22 50120 49130 60 41 91 84 58 18 70 59 36 24 35 39 3 30 5 18 20 38 31 14 30 36 31 48 34 31 48 31 61 62 20 22 18 12 23 4 20 16 5 38 37 36 20 63 38 67 59100160 39 93 96 70 47 71 39 53 21 17 28 11 28 11 13 29 14 23 21 20 38 22 17 25 12 19 21 18 34 41 24 16 32 41 29 5 27 19 30 37 20 15 18 6 9 19 23 21 8 35 33 28 32 39 24 22 38 38 38 35 26 22 53 0 7 23 54 10 20 27 37 42 15 25 21 32 26 22 90=N 801=I KTU224A -2(26F3.0)~ 67 61 51 72 46 12 11 91 63 50 88 64110 75 38 37 80 98140130100 53 81140150 24 60 31 51 80 57 75 78 63 59 47 45 36 34 69120150100118116 87100 97 73 87 49 44 71 9 38 56 65 63 77 50 68 99 64 70 85130170130 94 21 63 59 64 38 25 27 67 56 45 81 69 50 26 25 45 48 45 31 35 45 77=N 818=I KTU248A -2(26F3.0)~ 65 67 93 87 93 99 85110 37 88 90 59130120160140 76 51 85 73110 79150210220130 170120 98150140170130 86 75100 11 38 80 95 57 55 41 83130 86 98 73100120 98130 25 93 57 95 55 55 24 74 85 82140 61 93 22 16 66 77 63 34 44 53 28 45 20 82 250=N 840=I KTU230 -2(26F3.0)~ 38 53 54 29 49 46 25 33 37 39 49 28 15 24 0 34 42 63 48 57 30 48 70 34 50 55 100 70 43 50 11 24 33 51 28 26 16 35 67 53 72 57 62 23 36 68 46 53 44 41 48 36 51 35 90120110 97130110 74 81 91 10 61 43 20 13 38 33 30 13 25 30 30 5 14 30 16 54 27 27 18 28 37 33 24 42 31 29 13 39 25 0 15 18 28 18 32 13 3 15 4 14 6 0 7 0 14 14 10 7 8 4 8 5 10 7 0 11 16 6 3 10 14 19 15 2 27 17 20 15 18 11 20 13 12 15 20 22 18 24 25 26 20 16 18 3 30 29 29 26 17 20 13 21 18 13 15 13 4 24 11 9 15 14 6 16 14 4 22 22 23 23 34 21 10 30 29 17 27 14 12 20 14 13 14 22 34 23 31 28 29 16 23 6 21 24 10 20 27 21 18 18 14 6 13 16 18 8 15 11 3 18 14 0 12 17 0 12 10 22 27 27 29 33 31 21 0 14 16 13 14 20 26 19 11 17 17 16 16 25 17 19 20 21 16 11 9 6 354=N 72=I K106 -2(26F3.0)~ 27 33 43 32 40 66 50 43 60 68 26 43 35 26 46 43 44 55 24 20 33 44 31 42 63 64 68 49 84 56 45 81 73 62 11 72 44 24 54 71 23 38 24 47 45 29 52 35 69 72 62 44 48 79 56 48 97 91 69 82 42 28 39 49 50 35 21 52 88 56 38 58 67 53 41 88 48 67 43 69 41 88 57 79 86 89109 25 85 71 24 14 41 66 20 36 59 57 7 54 30 27 39 24 62 41 79 62 5 9 31 45 36 58 19 53 12 26 28 51 15 31 31 42 31 26 20 12 43 17 28 23 33 47 14 25 10 2 10 25 3 28 15 14 2 34 17 15 7 29 36 12 20 28 15 38 9 27 22 28 15 7 24 28 41 16 23 13 29 12 25 20 22 36 19 36 27 52 45 39 56 54 17 34 33 34 35 48 27 42 28 39 36 49 18 24 35 38 60 11 58 55 36 41 49 25 59 14 48 46 84 49 64 42 30 41 24 23 32 70 31 26 41 41 48 46 15 56 31 10 22 37 32 19 38 26 43 31 28 37 45 54 37 33 50 22 25 36 18 22 48 16 46 39 34 35 49 16 11 30 46 23 24 38 37 32 7 40 50 8 39 35 30 42 34 3 12 32 28 7 11 42 26 22 25 16 14 7 21 20 22 31 49 48 19 15 26 10 31 11 21 24 31 30 44 39 23 48 10 44 32 41 35 57 74 34 28 24 19 42 37 11 26 49 23 22 36 21 70 16 57 60 28 44 39 31 15 39 24 34 18 29 36 50 64 49 47 32 26 11 15 21 38 31 348=N 118=I K170 -2(26F3.0)~ 24 21 11 7 2 4 6 18 28 17 15 20 25 21 13 4 10 16 10 4 9 11 22 13 21 32 43 48 24 31 23 14 16 23 25 34 34 61 48 27 21 22 44 55 43 15 31 33 21 38 34 28 4 28 20 20 31 20 24 21 12 29 2 5 8 15 30 24 27 48 33 25 38 17 22 33 46 55 31 45 41 26 36 18 30 35 38 43 28 23 34 7 15 31 27 53 41 47 12 43 75 56 52 62 52 20 38 46 56 82 56 65 68 96 42 27 33 67 39 27 37 10 25 22 30 28 26 33 45 53 69 78 66 55 51 75 27 33 67 64 70 75 51 46 36 46 78 90 54 62 80 65140 58 93 88 72 60 82 53 76 33 58 78104 58 84 60 58 82 57 34 25 65 26 32 42 50 61 30 5 68 32 12 18 30 52 33 61 75 62 42 53 48 76 74 56 45 39 29 31 24 11 8 22 6 27 21 24 33 28 18 5 14 21 8 21 13 20 19 5 18 17 7 19 24 21 26 18 2 13 19 15 6 3 17 14 15 20 15 8 5 15 21 17 14 18 21 11 13 17 9 21 11 19 20 15 22 17 25 10 38 4 20 11 18 22 26 25 23 26 27 19 22 29 17 20 34 32 28 26 11 41 13 26 31 15 17 19 17 14 24 13 24 19 9 16 27 29 22 25 17 12 4 15 9 20 21 7 16 5 17 7 10 9 10 13 11 2 21 6 14 24 13 10 14 19 15 22 15 18 11 18 20 16 18 16 20 21 9 18 22 7 14 13 17 12 10 302=N 138=I K165 -2(26F3.0)~ 2 3 6 4 8 11 20 16 12 14 12 8 15 14 18 25 12 30 28 21 25 6 22 19 17 5 20 31 17 14 16 20 2 11 9 12 11 13 17 16 17 23 0 6 8 9 10 13 6 17 12 15 16 18 6 17 24 17 8 12 10 16 19 7 11 32 44 55 36 22 33 4 13 27 12 20 18 27 10 21 28 18 62 48 38 19 21 17 21 16 25 22 28 24 16 26 30 49 34 22 35 20 32 19 66 38 47 67 75110 60 70 95 91 68 55 30 32 43 51 60 35 15 20 17 30 52 70 46 36 53 35 54 7 22 35 45 43 60 54 44 21 35 31 76 36 49 42 50 55 41 20 37 63 28 30 33 41 37 18 11 32 20 8 17 47 45 21 29 32 25 18 24 20 24 20 24 13 29 27 18 30 11 16 21 7 17 21 19 28 33 29 15 34 32 25 45 41 24 17 6 25 33 18 35 43 23 16 14 5 16 24 23 8 10 21 19 23 26 13 16 5 8 25 14 16 25 27 11 18 13 10 14 2 4 14 10 8 14 23 10 26 2 16 6 10 9 14 17 10 9 7 14 28 20 13 24 41 25 31 34 16 25 9 20 11 10 15 19 16 8 26 19 23 20 15 22 29 36 33 31 42 35 15 36 29 34 24 13 20 8 25 4 18 13 16 23 27 16 50 33 46 174=N 272=I K188 -2(26F3.0)~ 64 69 50 35 46 31 34 16 36 22 38 44 46 23 17 29 17 13 10 29 19 22 18 28 23 14 6 25 12 2 17 16 15 10 15 13 28 17 26 29 24 32 34 18 47 27 36 45 12 17 43 15 25 39 28 37 44 17 5 15 32 16 13 10 25 22 10 25 59 9 40 36 34 42 29 6 14 26 48 18 13 42 36 35 48 25 24 8 18 32 28 22 42 51 14 20 24 17 59 16 27 21 14 23 33 42 10 41 2 14 9 18 12 17 14 11 25 10 9 20 26 6 16 34 16 18 31 11 43 9 23 32 10 18 15 14 13 22 8 14 11 9 14 26 32 17 23 26 11 3 10 21 31 21 9 17 10 27 5 30 11 53 30 29 11 40 20 42 53 30 18 20 23 17 580=N 292=I K201 -2(26F3.0)~ 11 8 10 13 10 6 3 15 5 0 2 12 10 4 10 7 4 3 6 8 11 15 8 6 12 10 5 10 6 5 14 2 9 14 10 14 9 7 2 4 7 2 4 8 10 16 2 18 28 10 14 18 11 19 16 2 6 19 15 3 5 12 11 12 9 11 12 6 11 32 16 31 19 26 12 14 31 10 37 18 24 28 23 52 42 54 15 56 5 29 39 37 27 42 38 20 12 17 14 30 40 11 25 55 35 26 23 21 51 17 34 29 14 21 23 19 15 29 16 21 14 13 25 36 40 24 33 32 21 9 34 26 33 26 11 17 11 26 5 16 10 34 32 28 18 44 29 34 46 40 35 40 33 31 18 23 26 14 24 29 27 24 49 36 16 28 37 43 7 17 27 39 25 12 17 14 19 26 33 10 16 21 13 29 23 19 32 21 16 18 29 30 22 13 34 36 11 27 30 23 12 15 11 13 17 2 9 11 24 14 17 4 15 23 12 24 5 29 18 16 13 18 6 22 12 15 19 14 23 27 20 8 20 28 25 32 4 17 6 22 19 3 29 25 2 4 13 30 20 8 42 4 11 9 18 21 16 18 13 19 7 16 33 19 26 21 16 30 23 18 10 18 24 18 4 9 7 34 27 13 22 15 26 23 33 16 40 40 54 49 17 41 20 30 26 25 23 10 18 19 29 17 33 28 12 14 21 2 29 22 27 16 23 38 30 22 19 17 7 21 19 3 9 15 20 14 20 12 31 2 17 13 19 15 22 2 16 23 19 6 14 7 14 11 3 17 26 13 19 10 24 9 22 12 9 22 13 27 22 17 25 30 8 45 14 27 21 33 20 6 11 20 24 6 16 19 10 6 35 16 14 15 26 19 10 13 2 10 21 14 0 2 13 16 12 10 9 3 0 22 14 6 20 13 18 3 12 21 12 16 5 19 2 18 10 9 11 9 15 2 20 15 11 14 8 15 19 13 9 6 14 8 6 14 25 18 24 16 13 11 15 21 12 16 21 8 22 26 16 27 13 4 17 20 11 6 21 19 16 7 6 34 5 16 4 9 7 20 8 11 9 22 20 23 19 20 16 9 17 22 13 10 8 5 21 7 13 16 4 20 18 15 11 26 30 27 14 19 31 7 24 22 20 17 21 18 25 21 11 14 6 16 12 9 18 5 9 11 8 17 19 10 8 15 20 29 24 20 19 20 10 22 14 12 4 12 8 9 12 15 8 21 9 20 25 14 23 9 27 31 23 19 32 12 10 16 24 20 26 14 10 11 0 2 10 16 4 12 14 18 21 13 16 20 18 22 12 13 4 6 515=N 338=I K167 -2(26F3.0)~ 2 10 19 9 18 17 12 10 13 2 3 15 22 11 5 18 14 10 14 5 9 4 14 24 34 39 43 45 21 29 56 14 60 32 26 34 43 61 32 63 14 29 6 32 17 28 32 33 22 6 3 9 7 18 14 3 15 30 48 36 29 20 26 5 15 36 24 18 15 10 7 26 13 20 8 5 9 15 23 11 22 29 17 2 12 14 18 11 5 6 3 13 4 10 3 13 16 12 3 30 13 21 34 12 15 18 19 13 16 7 13 3 13 17 14 23 22 15 18 26 19 36 13 18 21 22 13 5 9 13 10 15 8 10 7 11 4 10 12 10 24 33 35 26 39 20 37 30 33 22 7 28 32 27 22 28 8 15 20 3 4 11 22 10 15 2 12 15 8 16 3 22 20 17 7 10 3 13 10 8 23 12 20 26 16 10 23 31 20 45 5 35 31 49 57 15 68 45 3 6 14 48 19 13 42 5 10 6 11 20 18 20 6 8 1 16 29 18 22 17 11 31 35 30 28 50 68 61 51 42 26 62 59 29 25 21 14 15 23 17 26 22 35 37 9 37 36 40 54 44 46 27 47 40 50 23 40 59 23 25 31 2 34 32 34 24 26 32 35 27 39 37 12 25 23 19 29 43 37 30 25 18 37 14 34 25 32 27 42 7 13 17 16 8 16 21 17 21 5 15 28 16 14 11 19 10 24 12 15 23 11 24 19 18 27 30 10 38 19 39 43 52 40 23 12 18 33 19 27 22 21 12 37 22 17 27 24 29 18 20 6 18 38 29 2 6 19 24 17 14 11 2 2 26 24 10 22 16 22 13 18 21 43 33 11 32 17 29 21 2 27 18 16 12 39 28 21 40 4 27 24 29 18 8 18 13 2 10 20 11 10 9 17 18 11 18 25 29 26 10 18 32 17 27 26 13 19 22 20 28 45 47 35 13 10 37 5 35 9 19 18 41 31 25 33 59 49 50 17 24 28 32 46 38 17 10 15 10 30 26 22 25 7 46 42 51 39 60 53 59 32 56 70 22 41 39 35 37 56 31 50 53 36 41 15 36 19 9 22 7 21 32 20 43 37 31 19 3 9 13 8 21 32 28 15 28 25 12 3 15 13 8 25 14 12 23 4 2 11 7 18 2 19 27 24 16 26 13 5 19 17 13 18 14 16 99=N 346=I K197 -2(26F3.0)~ 43 25116 75 51 19 14 18 31 28 37 26 58 22 66128 52 40 53 41 60 85 68 36 97 45 68 79 98 90100159 98210 40 96 80105117 89 47 57 30 40 36 57 74 39 47 70 63 40 46 34 55 33 57 74 29 46 70 56 65 51 26 70 37 21 47 50 54 42 48 64 55 16 52 33 28 34 12 73 40 64 22 30 12 36 30 24 12 39 46 60 36 21 15 34 40 201=N 365=I K192 -2(26F3.0)~ 17 10 16 14 7 12 10 12 17 23 17 13 22 9 16 6 10 12 16 10 8 6 12 23 46 27 44 34 58 40 80 62 91 77 44 85 38 54 64 38 40 35 45 53 83 76 69 65 29 53 91108 91104100107 46 35 43 96 69 55 90 34 81 29 53 31 63 74 70 38 96 66123145 83 58 51 62 54 48 54 67 42 98 69 44 58109 90 98 62 95110 39 46 52 51 38 18 26 21 27 22 32 33 19 34 37 27 32 38 58 48 64 98 57 78 62 54 88 94 68114 92 74 53 38 31 33 42 24 39 32 38 19 41 24 19 28 15 19 6 21 15 18 25 29 11 22 20 19 23 15 38 18 22 16 42 29 12 40 13 32 19 22 18 14 19 21 0 2 4 12 7 3 18 5 14 6 13 33 23 17 8 14 7 22 13 20 13 29 26 22 36 40 34 42 58 34 223=N 371=I K185 -2(26F3.0)~ 2 5 10 13 9 3 10 2 14 2 11 6 5 11 8 14 20 11 17 29 45 30 23 30 48 27 17 26 13 23 8 24 47 24 39 57 56 82 80 62 36 49 33 60 58 76 80 69 76 71 26 37 55 61 49 43 62 40 92 35 76 42 99 89 65 26 88 26 41 44 75 80 32 37 45 62 91 50 54 83 98 71 68 94 67 84 89124115 23 63 60 68 50 44 53 37 50 42 53 44 40 12 24 31 6 3 32 28 37 49 29 36 17 25 31 29 10 15 22 28 19 22 10 15 20 14 18 12 13 12 31 6 10 17 13 20 3 27 3 6 9 28 12 29 25 28 30 24 14 37 32 19 29 41 34 28 8 35 21 49 47 8 55 53 0 3 16 32 7 5 32 5 13 23 14 22 17 18 10 16 2 27 34 12 16 27 15 33 25 14 29 39 34 29 9 17 12 28 30 3 25 17 31 27 33 9 33 23 31 36 15 46 5 24 27 7 14 5 21 28 24 12 351=N 456=I K207 -2(26F3.0)~ 23 26 36 29 9 19 21 20 11 8 3 7 9 11 13 14 10 12 2 5 4 3 12 20 26 24 18 15 21 14 22 24 7 9 10 13 21 16 11 13 9 7 5 9 13 21 17 14 16 12 16 23 10 12 14 10 9 13 9 12 17 24 23 21 28 50 40 20 36 40 25 51 35 26 30 49 40 20 42 54 3 12 21 23 5 7 15 6 10 9 17 15 23 18 12 16 3 14 26 18 21 23 16 32 27 30 22 22 35 32 31 27 24 62 72 43 58 37 43 62 66 39 72 79 68 62 56 93 77 60 70 42 53 52 50 46 38 50 43 63 25 19 23 6 40 27 22 21 16 27 21 11 18 15 19 16 19 9 14 17 20 28 26 17 22 14 21 16 26 20 24 9 16 20 23 15 27 23 21 25 6 13 21 33 26 28 25 13 24 23 26 23 18 28 7 19 24 44 27 49 26 36 39 59 53 40 38 43 33 30 51 40 32 25 36 29 26 34 32 39 32 25 22 32 48 33 2 6 20 27 21 29 22 10 2 33 30 24 35 37 30 18 42 35 43 53 19 33 34 48 55 5 42 25 37 15 37 24 30 46 26 49 40 32 26 18 32 30 22 34 36 31 35 33 30 23 26 30 31 28 34 24 34 31 22 30 38 10 40 39 33 18 45 42 33 27 21 44 17 51 17 26 24 44 23 14 23 33 24 28 25 27 30 20 33 31 22 29 17 18 32 16 24 25 2 29 34 37 18 47 38 30 32 34 38 8 32 22 27 29 40 28 30 19 11 16 7 15 8 11 15 268=N 487=I K206 -2(26F3.0)~ 10 13 11 13 14 10 12 7 10 14 11 14 15 17 10 16 10 8 15 18 26 12 20 24 18 30 37 15 45 37 31 35 9 30 41 35 21 36 44 21 39 15 49 47 72 84 23 78 65 3 7 13 28 20 9 28 8 13 8 23 35 39 30 23 15 5 17 22 10 21 28 35 54 52 37 20 29 40 41 23 31 27 56 65 28 57 33 44 52 79 31 52 73 67 66 46 94 84 67 72 46 85 56 95 69 99 35 78 67 29 35 29 6 40 50 58 36 50 80 71 51 86 82 41 80 54 28 48 58 61 40 38 37 75 21 47 30 46 34 62 16 49 41 49 35 56 43 37 45 23 30 37 31 53 38 58 20 35 23 27 52 14 30 29 21 33 31 7 37 12 28 25 60 58 27 21 25 30 6 16 23 12 11 62 44 30 36 42 32 24 21 2 27 37 29 2 8 31 36 18 24 20 6 2 35 25 12 23 14 18 6 19 16 14 13 7 36 13 25 22 2 27 10 12 4 30 14 15 22 3 17 23 19 20 5 12 3 2 8 13 5 10 8 17 12 4 20 15 19 25 10 19 22 10 21 11 8 20 12 9 5 10 19 20 7 10 18 10 335=N 491=I K168 -2(26F3.0)~ 15 20 14 10 14 18 8 10 11 9 10 26 12 7 16 19 18 13 17 8 2 5 7 6 7 11 21 18 16 23 27 21 8 15 21 7 12 4 7 6 8 13 11 17 12 0 2 7 8 6 2 7 2 3 2 8 11 16 17 16 21 2 14 15 10 18 25 24 41 36 45 23 38 60 51 34 56 17 35 47 22 50 29 32 40 73 26 35 64 50 34 11 52 62 66 58 36115 71110 93100 43 83 96 36 50 51 7 37 46 38 24 34 59 57 62 98 87 38 66 56 48 76 90 48 38 49 41101 21 75 24 42 24 52 4 17 25 29 16 39 24 20 22 8 17 24 13 18 10 22 10 24 10 15 22 7 17 23 16 34 24 5 34 18 33 30 34 24 19 13 19 26 12 23 21 13 9 36 22 21 17 34 36 17 10 7 19 27 23 2 7 29 41 21 30 33 8 0 32 43 14 20 28 32 10 18 27 31 34 17 50 26 39 45 30 44 20 8 2 41 24 18 23 8 17 28 30 11 8 16 9 2 10 18 10 13 12 16 20 15 19 23 24 21 9 17 25 11 24 11 6 16 17 14 13 31 23 12 10 8 20 2 23 8 15 9 26 18 7 9 26 17 24 10 12 25 18 28 29 10 6 10 8 24 14 16 18 0 22 16 17 10 24 21 34 23 36 70 13 33 27 22 24 33 15 29 24 18 13 5 19 3 6 17 11 22 38 11 28 24 22 16 6 9 13 11 20 25 22 8 20 17 11 249=N 493=I K205 -2(26F3.0)~ 25 22 13 19 8 12 15 20 14 23 12 15 14 9 7 2 13 11 9 7 15 6 18 14 19 27 11 26 28 21 12 20 19 6 9 2 13 9 12 23 6 26 21 2 4 11 19 8 3 12 2 4 3 8 19 25 21 7 11 2 8 26 10 24 46 40 48 38 13 34 43 67 32 15 29 11 59 78 16 31 15 27 31 67 25 32 38 24 32 9 50 45 33 38 32 39 19 29 34 43 19 46 52 14 27 23 3 29 28 34 32 36 41 23 24 29 34 16 52 32 20 42 50 55 39 37 23 63 12 70 55 51 44 69 22 30 56 61 42 64 47 51 41 32 47 75 41 56 28 49 14 52 33 42106 45 62 67 46 55 66 10 82 21 80 88110 86 23 13 31 40 22 44 46 29 11 54 34 40 31 46 39 27 22 2 24 33 17 2 6 29 35 18 19 11 3 2 26 20 11 21 31 30 10 21 27 20 4 10 48 8 31 37 5 38 17 12 2 34 11 7 36 2 19 21 17 20 7 24 9 13 6 21 6 9 11 12 8 4 26 12 19 26 5 14 21 20 34 360=N 503=I K189 -2(26F3.0)~ 9 5 18 35 29 7 17 15 18 21 44 30 35 37 26 24 16 40 28 31 16 18 23 13 18 5 11 8 15 22 6 28 25 2 3 5 19 8 2 10 2 3 0 7 11 14 12 7 11 3 8 10 9 17 26 30 39 48 37 51 39 42 39 35 45 33 46 63 28 46 21 23 39 86 46 57 45 26 43 30 43 47 51 64 46 56 33 37 49 42 47 32 51 30 33 28 11 28 19 24 34 40 51 39 33 47 69 47 54 46 29 37 28 38 36 33 24 41 9 33 22 12 19 29 5 20 25 30 10 36 17 25 26 21 23 30 21 27 18 19 4 16 19 13 20 14 18 15 17 28 21 12 29 4 13 20 14 22 15 16 13 26 23 38 42 24 18 47 29 18 34 40 42 22 12 4 19 26 13 0 2 11 9 7 12 9 2 0 16 22 14 26 17 20 16 19 13 22 18 8 20 26 28 31 2 18 21 11 0 17 9 3 14 8 10 14 23 12 6 14 7 2 9 16 4 7 11 19 14 10 13 9 12 18 4 6 15 4 14 7 3 10 13 9 12 23 21 13 3 6 9 2 7 2 11 13 29 13 8 12 33 26 29 17 13 26 20 19 16 12 14 10 7 23 20 14 20 4 17 22 24 20 27 33 40 31 28 33 15 36 32 34 25 36 23 29 21 14 20 17 36 13 8 21 7 11 24 13 27 37 17 15 10 16 20 17 24 36 27 21 29 25 22 7 29 15 26 24 7 12 24 7 9 15 21 26 12 23 41 30 16 33 26 9 31 27 21 26 18 14 23 0 2 19 15 5 8 4 8 11 292=N 513=I K105 -2(26F3.0)~ 27 35 28 22 27 50 46 60 51 63 43 63 41 26 67 42 52 51 65 79 24 59 41 3 18 15 29 17 11 25 8 18 12 27 51 77 64 55 56 12 33 69 43 44 41 33 50 54 41 77104105 94 49 70 46 87 61 50 65 38 46 60101 91119104 66 52 33 72 71 85 67 57 68 39 83 71 73 56 49 89 45 47 52 30 60 58 57 46 38 47 35 25 44 55 30 46 28 24 36 39 38 41 25 13 31 7 26 18 12 20 39 7 14 10 16 8 21 27 19 22 9 18 35 23 27 18 25 24 32 21 32 32 22 30 34 32 36 34 13 33 16 41 37 35 46 24 19 21 34 15 24 31 20 19 45 38 21 43 49 35 18 30 5 21 52 33 5 5 22 32 21 17 26 4 3 23 30 14 26 28 26 12 27 22 23 21 10 38 24 38 37 31 33 25 25 17 26 9 14 28 9 17 29 27 27 13 31 20 11 26 24 20 18 19 27 17 14 21 18 24 27 13 17 33 18 32 24 9 18 24 14 15 36 33 22 8 12 29 4 27 11 20 11 47 28 15 20 33 24 31 24 24 38 19 26 30 18 23 18 15 28 18 19 18 3 22 22 28 16 30 27 27 32 19 37 14 30 20 24 18 22 11 19 15 13 22 14 17 11 238=N 548=I K183 -2(26F3.0)~ 43 48 25 39 11 36 50 35 70 64 73 83 65 45 31 52 61 47 29 56 33 83 87 54 89 55 57 56 73 37 86 79 65 69 46 84 28 45 64 63 76 35 79 54 71 52100 81 49 63 58 7 49 68 55 33 39 61 79 43 52 56 47 74 45 35 41 70 73 52 49 32 73 17 83 37 43 35 56 10 27 45 28 20 44 36 58 39 11 29 40 30 50 33 60 26 85 48 51 65 26 42 68 39 56 48 5 52 13 47 39 75 66 58 34 46 54 20 35 38 43 9 59 34 23 25 37 35 28 21 2 30 60 43 2 8 30 39 36 39 40 10 2 47 41 24 51 31 38 14 30 40 47 34 14 49 13 38 47 6 44 23 20 8 27 16 8 23 6 18 23 21 19 11 23 10 6 9 19 17 18 17 25 20 8 20 22 30 53 26 33 38 35 37 26 13 29 35 33 13 38 55 53 29 26 80 13 45 7 25 22 53 45 24 20 52 73 90 60 40 60 32 34 27 20 7 3 9 32 13 17 22 2 30 34 50 21 55 289=N 603=I K110 -2(26F3.0)~ 10 12 14 11 9 8 10 2 5 3 11 9 17 24 19 23 9 22 10 19 6 3 9 30 6 8 14 26 22 29 17 25 28 12 19 25 25 41 19 24 16 29 26 33 43 29 28 31 18 28 37 17 34 9 23 31 28 25 17 11 17 14 13 19 31 25 9 29 35 22 32 38 49 34 29 8 28 47 43 3 10 25 43 31 39 55 15 6 41 53 46 58 63 69 42 41 63 30 32 13 63 50 58 62 10 61 36 31 12 62 54 38 49 17 48 48 54 56 28 43 24 16 31 54 31 37 24 38 55 30 44 59 63 75 28 62 83 38 75 38 16 50 47 39 28 76 62 35 20 22 44 19 50 18 35 23 51 33 22 26 56 50 54 39 34 49 24 34 38 32 37 26 19 35 17 31 26 10 31 27 38 16 52 43 57 44 61 82 32 56 67 47 37 57 31 50 31 24 34 14 35 14 14 25 14 22 30 17 35 20 17 10 11 19 25 18 38 43 32 17 28 30 20 7 20 18 17 34 17 11 29 11 14 19 17 16 6 20 25 23 16 34 24 15 24 17 28 27 18 21 37 2 4 23 21 3 11 9 17 30 17 21 23 34 31 49 34 8 23 13 42 35 19 13 28 40 25 45 15 25 7 2 29 40 24 16 11 29 8 345=N 614=I K180 -2(26F3.0)~ 6 12 26 24 22 11 14 8 31 17 23 19 12 2 7 14 16 9 21 18 14 7 2 4 12 19 24 4 13 9 30 17 32 21 16 8 10 12 14 21 10 23 8 11 34 43 45 27 19 21 30 14 28 46 26 9 30 27 16 19 23 30 10 8 3 12 29 22 3 14 25 19 14 36 7 2 0 22 28 17 32 19 27 20 25 39 28 36 11 23 29 75 58 5 37 28 22 12 32 14 20 26 9 27 25 22 18 11 16 8 5 9 10 7 16 24 22 23 18 16 22 29 40 25 22 36 14 35 20 11 17 22 17 11 32 40 28 19 17 37 13 32 14 22 15 33 25 15 13 23 35 34 37 25 44 35 43 52 25 10 14 12 21 12 15 16 3 19 17 20 25 41 80 71 62 60 91 32 63 65 54 46 56 30 48 38 13 31 12 37 21 10 22 8 6 21 16 28 35 26 13 12 15 27 25 42 67 73 28 96 81 46 5 16 7 20 60 54 33 53 10 16 29 23 31 21 33 56 48 43 78 65 27 40 46 39 50 25 37 55 5 7 21 26 15 18 22 27 36 27 17 27 31 41 43 38 13 15 8 23 20 18 13 30 37 20 40 21 28 5 2 21 45 29 28 29 39 15 18 2 26 18 43 18 24 37 7 13 17 2 8 3 9 4 8 10 18 7 11 14 20 17 10 18 13 29 26 27 23 35 26 15 13 29 36 29 15 19 13 5 2 8 17 3 14 9 2 19 9 13 9 2 17 3 12 20 5 13 14 5 8 5 9 8 7 136=N 726=I K111 -2(26F3.0)~ 13 4 14 33 17 69 17 84102 72 70 45118120 60 88 92 69 83 78 97 55161159110 76 31 39 35 46 34 49 31 60 27 18 27 53 67 74 75 57 47 37 28 38 26 12 20 19 38 28 33 37 6 27 60 75 41 69 82 99 89115142 45 60 98 95104123 95151100 54 69 50 61 58 29 71 43 59 90 58113 80 68 69 49 41 72 49 84 93 56 22 65 47 44 17 34 28 24 45 29 36 57 34 46 70 42 64 23 53 85 84 38 70 78 49 69 55 58 72 44 20 62 3 45 44 4 23 19 29 32 219=N 735=I K208 -2(26F3.0)~ 7 9 16 19 20 16 43 26 12 8 34 43 13 39 46 13 30 37 32 22 33 17 48 43 52 60 48 46 72 68 75 33 18 22 11 22 28 21 7 11 13 15 8 12 11 5 18 35 41 13 39 37 61 31 55 66 28 59 71 37 52 70 58 92 45 29 42 34 28 24 20 54 27 26 35 38 80 65 77 76 37 43 59 40 46 66 29 34 69 61 50 13 27 26 26 33 20 28 25 16 14 39 39 33 20 47 64 90 62 90 51 61 80 60 68 83 46 39 74 5 22 73 59 34 38 22 60 74 35 62 65 66 57 58 35 2 29 27 39 24 13 11 26 26 16 46 33 40 7 15 41 25 24 22 31 29 20 30 20 42 36 49 24 48 61 27 39 51 4 29 29 31 10 33 23 17 8 33 32 53 27 40 61 11 46 24 61 33 62 48 18 14 51 50 24 12 26 21 11 5 15 30 4 23 15 6 28 11 18 10 5 18 4 12 16 2 4 9 3 358=N 742=I K18! -2(26F3.0)~ 16 12 15 24 31 16 28 27 15 17 14 10 2 8 4 6 5 7 8 3 2 9 6 7 4 6 10 14 6 8 3 7 4 7 12 8 10 7 2 13 8 6 5 14 20 19 14 18 24 4 8 11 3 5 8 4 11 13 7 8 4 7 2 9 3 6 2 14 13 8 10 5 4 6 3 2 5 3 5 7 9 4 10 5 7 6 8 7 14 8 6 13 2 3 7 5 9 2 6 15 14 8 19 11 6 14 12 8 11 6 8 12 0 2 5 9 2 6 4 7 10 11 7 6 13 14 8 10 2 5 2 12 19 8 6 18 23 22 27 16 19 6 3 14 22 18 21 22 25 16 12 10 45 48 30 21 32 36 8 9 12 2 9 8 14 6 10 12 14 7 13 16 24 18 14 33 15 35 40 34 42 47 61 32 39100 62 66 47 77 37 18 3 6 29 13 24 16 6 23 11 21 17 4 18 6 15 18 7 11 16 3 13 28 40 45 14 31 43 28 19 33 22 57 76 17 65 40 51 43 22 15 11 13 29 32 29 32 35 33 31 55 45 36 40 7 64 80 71 78 56 69 56 64 47 21 37 26 20 22 26 16 22 25 18 38 24 11 27 39 32 45 84 38 28 32 50 30 39 17 14 25 47 30 12 38 40 24 32 42 45 50 55 21 19 33 19 39 49 62 27 30 20 15 31 38 50 25 53 31 27 25 19 2 16 18 23 19 26 32 27 34 43 40 55 28 14 12 21 12 23 33 54 45 11 30 32 42 30 38 20 31 33 37 20 26 21 32 20 41 15 41 18 33 8 11 9 14 230=N 746=I M919 -2(26F3.0)~ 89 28 61 26 13 7 14 28 8 32 21 17 21 62 46 36 43 72 91 93 61 68 80 87 92 93 56 45 39 27 43 17 21 32 13 48 49 47 24 38 32 24 33 29 47 13 18 39 28 27 36 22 41 37 26 32 20 26 19 29 28 16 29 30 21 37 26 18 26 37 25 14 20 31 36 26 40 33 23 22 2 11 23 33 37 40 27 57 44 78 84 42 81 46 86105 80 54 78 35 17 51 51 56 61 44 34 45 2 9 40 46 22 28 19 13 9 26 27 26 37 29 32 43 20 36 29 41 34 20 6 53 57 45 64 27 52 16 20 52 36 42 40 18 31 14 30 18 42 23 6 11 23 24 15 12 14 4 2 11 15 2 9 3 9 2 12 11 12 3 2 21 3 28 17 17 25 30 31 12 14 42 17 29 10 18 23 5 7 16 28 15 27 19 10 30 4 23 14 2 20 5 12 23 9 7 8 10 24 8 24 18 4 15 24 14 20 8 25 18 20 11 17 2 6 3 15 3 13 9 264=N 752=I K108 -2(26F3.0)~ 10 16 12 23 9 13 9 11 7 19 4 6 3 3 6 12 33 21 22 19 16 12 8 7 14 21 26 28 6 21 30 17 22 34 51 38 25 23 18 8 19 28 32 27 31 14 21 17 9 22 16 21 18 9 30 17 23 42 30 57 46 29 16 14 18 32 41 75 66 77 39 64 67 62 33 31 50 60 122 83 67108 28 30 49 68101 47100130100 71111 87 65 92 77 99 75 59 42 65 14 22 39 66 31 49 34 63 76 78 62 81 75 90 77 53 25 40 27 55 38 25 26 46 69 61 87 45 48 21 14 46 50 45 35 26 38 15 27 17 50 34 28 25 36 56 25 29 31 9 17 16 21 17 28 35 38 15 33 30 51 27 20 38 28 53 43 35 54 40 52 38 34 61 53 55 25 37 17 10 8 8 21 8 17 19 8 29 14 17 15 7 18 3 13 22 12 12 20 12 25 24 30 29 10 18 23 15 14 16 14 25 31 7 30 26 39 26 29 16 28 18 30 29 33 35 24 20 30 46 32 27 35 9 24 57 41 47 32 24 35 38 35 15 16 17 11 28 18 6 15 26 21 31 27 5 19 18 15 22 26 16 152=N 755=I K181 -2(26F3.0)~ 15 13 6 9 69 16 13 9 8 28 38 43 28 21 52 47 44 25 27 17 2 13 7 9 18 7 25 48 45 47 69 95117 66 87 94 32 42 50 54 35 68 56 71102 43 67 41 80 55 30 61 55 51 80 65110 72 58 25 13 18 27 30 36 48 53 24 31 25 24 2 16 9 13 21 13 19 28 11 15 22 18 23 9 13 25 18 8 23 11 6 13 20 16 29 10 12 16 0 0 14 22 8 6 10 13 15 16 13 14 17 18 15 12 2 13 7 14 17 13 6 13 17 12 23 6 15 3 2 16 12 16 9 6 16 9 15 6 15 27 33 24 15 25 32 23 39 3 9 4 9 90=N 764=I K203 -2(26F3.0)~ 16 24 12 17 42 37 35 26 17 22 22 19 37 40 39 29 9 37 39 40 44 67 79 83 54 42 53 17 44 54 41 62 86 54 87 81 36 46 32 47 28 20 40 21 37 73 53 90 82 62 70 50 56 91 99154159110 69 88 89 61 29 38 47 55 82 73 60 80 40 53 57 37 51 28 83116 92 59 97 80 66125204152200124103130 325=N 782=I K085 -2(26F3.0)~ 24 36 25 20 34 25 28 29 24 8 14 17 10 9 13 24 26 11 4 10 6 11 8 6 13 7 5 10 5 15 12 11 13 23 17 25 23 25 17 16 12 19 22 25 2 3 12 12 22 14 15 10 7 13 15 20 13 7 40 41 31 14 48 23 25 48 31 34 21 15 9 14 2 4 13 24 30 25 12 19 31 14 26 21 40 55 35 45 6 7 15 37 27 10 7 35 45 36 54 40 57 18 9 28 53 45 30 22 40 49 62 49 79 70 45 55 65 66 41 29 31 6 12 19 38 19 35 32 25 16 23 41 38 28 14 29 6 30 27 46 32 40 35 16 20 38 35 32 24 35 8 5 6 9 14 2 15 13 2 31 13 17 19 4 19 10 28 41 18 16 23 6 17 25 45 40 5 19 35 25 6 34 47 68 62 23 50 31 33 18 16 8 12 11 15 25 39 48 54 39 58 85 70 52 71 11 38 60 41 39 20 37 32 39 22 8 11 10 5 17 16 3 11 16 20 35 25 12 28 24 15 30 42 27 24 54 43 15 27 8 22 24 17 18 11 33 50 32 38 47 28 30 29 10 11 21 11 19 29 13 2 9 10 5 18 12 15 6 20 2 10 19 2 3 22 18 13 7 22 35 22 18 26 30 49 24 5 10 17 11 8 33 24 10 4 23 22 12 23 33 27 35 28 20 11 16 7 10 5 15 5 24 12 18 5 12 12 15 7 19 14 10 12 18 5 238=N 805=I K198 -2(26F3.0)~ 11 22 14 20 16 10 28 16 9 10 5 7 13 7 6 9 10 6 15 12 21 6 17 11 16 22 18 20 23 12 6 13 16 18 8 19 30 21 12 22 12 8 15 25 18 20 14 7 12 2 4 10 17 6 10 7 9 22 14 23 34 57 50 36 33 5 4 9 28 34 17 13 46 87 74 79 37 55 12 10 34 60 49 25 18 27 17 28 16 52 57 44 40 69 79 33 23 28 3 14 7 13 9 23 26 14 4 19 14 20 14 18 25 5 23 11 22 19 30 26 24 21 35 33 28 10 20 11 9 8 13 33 10 24 16 3 23 11 23 11 5 24 12 19 20 9 11 18 7 11 10 20 23 4 19 31 35 20 34 32 77 46 14 67 38 40 23 22 12 21 12 20 21 35 30 29 29 45 60 53 39 54 10 43 64 41 46 34 35 22 35 29 15 22 21 12 20 15 7 14 25 12 19 13 9 22 30 15 27 40 23 23 27 18 9 28 8 11 18 16 11 12 30 24 16 23 26 36 32 21 11 8 12 4 14 12 14 3 350=N 823=I K199 -2(26F3.0)~ 21 18 13 5 7 10 8 15 17 12 20 6 8 11 5 8 3 10 20 11 7 22 11 8 18 19 22 31 18 10 15 2 10 16 17 3 8 10 16 31 14 16 14 34 37 17 22 2 6 4 20 34 25 15 59 71 42 72 43 78 23 17 67100 76 69 57 74 52 41 22 75 85 47 53 73 87 39 29 47 6 17 10 24 9 21 28 45 17 31 42 63 40 28 50 10 42 23 30 38 49 45 40 42 82 63 65 31 39 13 10 11 14 31 9 32 16 2 29 7 30 17 7 23 6 22 35 14 22 38 21 44 65103 70 16 39 50 28 25 46 60 83 86 19 91 72 60 39 21 10 19 14 28 46 59 85 90 79119169151117114 38 90156144179 98101 70105 54 31 34 36 32 50 41 24 43 63 47102 65 27 63 72 61 76101 41 47 55 41 17 47 19 33 38 30 33 29 70 76 35 54 71 68 72 77 44 36 70 39 56 60 53 9 23 22 28 47 54 51 48 75 24 25 26 12 2 17 23 19 12 10 46 27 47 58 45 57 37 27 29 34 2 19 36 43 25 8 36 33 28 34 48 44 46 39 37 31 33 13 20 16 26 8 42 18 38 2 14 19 24 21 12 21 27 9 8 27 13 10 15 4 5 13 11 15 14 14 21 13 21 20 10 2 21 15 2 12 9 11 2 23 20 17 27 4 17 7 13 28 20 4 14 21 25 18 19 12 18 20 23 35 0 6 15 10 27 21 23 27 25 20 2 30 7 25 5 13 17 21 20 29 3 29 398=N 828=I K094 -2(26F3.0)~ 25 17 18 14 9 22 15 32 65 12 39 16 44 42 40 29 30 11 7 16 19 22 17 12 9 17 2 15 21 24 11 14 11 15 27 8 17 7 45 30 40 43 10 2 13 34 38 2 4 17 30 25 47 51 50 20 4 40 52 57 29 33 43 24 29 17 47 73 38 52 67 57 36 19 39 2 25 14 51 20 43 46 41 15 28 46 54 37 10 24 3 43 31 36 33 44 32 25 45 62 64 59 47 49 14 17 36 45 62 43 76 67 20 72 19 80 30 6 60 50100110 18 26 41 30 51 67115 78 21 66 87 57 15 65103101100 26110 77 55 35 37 38 93 38 66 50 51 66 72 61 93 90 88 51 77 14 63 62 77 61 43 63 40 57 38 13 35 23 20 60 42 23 58 74 75 65 47 40 86 76 56 98100 86 31 78 65 15 47 9 41 54 29 30 10 47 44 36 52 44 60 49 62 31 33 24 10 20 18 11 15 8 6 2 18 16 11 13 19 7 24 31 25 3 32 25 16 24 7 23 35 40 50 34 25 15 10 14 25 6 21 48 39 30 10 51 30 24 23 36 42 40 39 46 37 41 14 26 16 36 30 53 41 48 6 18 33 61 45 30 38 31 24 40 58 55 44 31 41 14 40 25 48 44 51 38 34 53 32 37 6 38 16 3 22 17 25 9 33 38 29 30 26 38 22 28 17 14 2 9 19 10 5 3 9 14 9 11 27 4 8 17 10 25 23 19 19 22 16 6 23 14 15 9 6 22 22 12 13 8 23 5 26 13 14 20 13 17 7 12 9 12 12 18 6 25 26 14 22 15 22 10 5 12 2 20 13 14 12 16 8 22 11 17 10 17 22 7 2 20 10 3 9 14 5 13 20 14 13 20 18 15 4 16 203=N 833=I K223 -2(26F3.0)~ 20 12 8 17 8 16 7 12 33 19 12 21 18 16 20 34 21 38 19 11 21 4 12 18 21 11 28 34 41 55 48 51 57 50 67 38 40 22 41 38 50 62 37 31 62 44 63 88 58 69 41 28 76 73 57 62 55 58 42 38 28 78 67 44 32 49 80 41 27 45 13 18 16 41 22 55 51 42 24 40 56 47 30 24 41 24 53 33 42 58 53 47 31 51 84 65 60 34 55 37 31 29 27 48 35 54 30 5 32 16 21 12 4 15 3 13 20 7 15 14 10 24 20 37 41 10 20 34 17 15 19 21 46 39 6 44 28 34 21 17 8 20 18 29 32 39 43 42 31 34 51 49 57 50 11 39 48 41 35 15 26 24 27 29 8 11 10 11 19 11 4 24 29 19 44 21 6 23 28 19 36 49 40 34 46 60 17 30 16 11 18 16 12 9 19 25 11 14 25 22 19 17 7 326=N 850=I K107 -2(26F3.0)~ 26 17 29 27 3 8 16 12 10 28 19 16 23 21 19 60 36 88 38 52 6 20 19 22 27 21 15 23 27 34 50 30 33 31 19 33 57 48 42 60 76 45 44 34 57 62 34 32 43 44 22 22 29 2 17 23 25 15 28 31 28 14 34 52 47 29 25 55 25 51 34 38 42 40 43 28 23 41 41 37 31 43 31 17 19 20 44 20 44 28 12 42 20 25 15 4 29 10 21 24 9 17 22 7 22 13 38 37 9 25 20 8 12 20 25 37 40 4 41 17 19 18 16 13 17 19 25 22 20 28 32 24 19 38 28 28 28 8 33 34 40 43 22 38 28 31 27 8 9 8 10 9 8 3 10 14 9 17 12 8 22 25 19 28 35 26 17 37 35 20 37 24 23 30 26 19 14 32 41 25 34 32 49 40 28 13 16 31 17 28 25 17 10 13 15 10 14 18 23 12 28 22 14 34 19 3 20 33 29 42 30 51 57 49 48 49 60 53 26 30 28 9 26 19 32 28 6 28 27 16 20 37 28 36 55 57 51 36 28 30 18 22 17 37 18 28 7 27 25 37 31 16 27 24 10 12 22 6 5 7 8 4 12 11 11 21 10 23 11 21 24 17 2 20 16 8 10 17 15 6 34 31 30 33 9 31 13 15 24 17 2 18 22 13 14 12 3 7 12 12 17 5 7 8 14 9 11 8 8 6 7 2 5 2 9 7 5 7 6 5 6 5 10 6 9 6 189=N 864=I M705 -2(26F3.0)~ 48 54 45 70 46 51 37 60 53 48 50 70 33 80 73 82 97 85 96 47 35 83129125108 91 94 81103 72135134 61 65 86131 57 89 85 0 50 36 23 7 26 53 43 26 61 57 65 50 63106 32114 44 57101119107 66 89181 90 79 91 94 51 34 43 65103 52 75 69 15 73 34 60 30 0 52 24 80 87 42 40 58 36 72 58123 84 23 46 64 30 23 61 49 86 69 8 94 52 74 76104 45 58 49 69 69 64 83 77 74 98103 72 48 85 23 61 62 71 95 66 59 31 49 46 23 45 77 40 51 56 24 39 96 64 69 58 52 57 43 40 57 69 48 49 76 58 18 64 27 64 63 53 32 44 56 74 32 48 42 49 53 17 17 9 60 34 50 46 35 22 13 28 32 59 51 49 29 40 5 36 201=N 1004=I M923z -2(26F3.0)~ 7 9 19 23 10 11 19 22 13 13 29 33 18 33 33 20 35 18 30 19 13 7 11 24 18 18 23 11 25 21 28 5 10 9 6 8 9 13 17 26 29 36 38 59 45 24 79 18 36 35 15 14 34 24 6 8 18 27 38 39 46 60 63 78 37 24 51 40 51 48 68 59 40 83 83 86 64 58 39 60 70 59 28 33 33 46 58 85 45 80 84 62 36 43 52 49 27 35 54 67 73 86 58 35 33 28 17 13 32 54 61 34 29 51 36 61 50 32 16 46 35 24 35 36 45 24 57107 61 90 62 91 41 14 85 87 31 69163 76 57 60 81 97 98 79165 30 51 88 63127 76102114183 128 47141 72 83 37 37 89101108115 88116 35 56 35 46 75 49 46 40 81 29 40 29 43 17 29 56 31 23 13 33 16 15 24 10 49 18 21 22 28 10 19 18 189=N 1044=I K176 -2(26F3.0)~ 18 11 25 27 35 29 60 45 25 50 14 6 16 20 16 18 29 51 56 68 73 61 69 53 17 30 44 34 65 79 59 37 22 72 85 70 82104 87100 97102 57 62 64 98 64 82 40 85 70 73 23 43 57 68 59 28 63 76 37 73 87 43 38 53 34 36 32 46 59 56 60 96 68 90 81 46 18 54 27 11 19 27 23 9 36 33 32 58 24 34 2 21 20 30 3 6 33 24 26 28 18 20 24 27 46 5 9 20 24 41 34 37 34 41 39 10 51 22 23 4 13 24 28 25 42 13 36 8 39 25 42 49 35 28 14 52 23 34 28 23 14 21 35 28 35 38 29 18 10 20 2 29 15 6 18 16 21 18 12 33 13 19 35 8 2 26 13 2 15 8 4 14 13 9 7 14 33 21 10 34 24 28 36 42 54 73 55 535=N 1050=I K202 -2(26F3.0)~ 12 5 8 15 4 2 7 6 4 6 3 8 6 20 22 14 27 24 7 4 13 5 10 12 9 13 3 16 22 12 16 20 10 16 13 15 12 14 17 19 16 12 15 25 20 18 5 10 19 28 40 29 34 28 16 10 22 17 11 18 4 9 18 60 52 20 23 27 19 47 37 31 10 23 32 12 20 28 22 5 34 44 37 53 34 45 16 11 2 17 4 13 38 30 33 36 25 28 49 63110 21 23 32 53 64 48 64 59 66 69 37103 63 43 29 19 54 71 68 81 45 83 37 74 45 61123 66 72 64 75 62100 93 96 55 71 82 70 83 95 85 42 25 47 8 48 44 42 60 69 75 70 50 80 55 69108 35 9 70 66 33 41 38 24 26 28 19 27 29 41 30 22 30 31 27 30 41 61 89 80 43 85 69 90 23 28 21 46 18 31 34 30 23 18 41 29 20 30 25 20 38 24 35 31 33 15 8 17 24 22 7 12 23 17 13 17 14 19 7 20 13 9 26 10 9 24 9 14 22 18 6 13 5 2 17 10 2 16 11 15 3 10 11 7 3 6 10 4 22 2 10 15 2 9 16 7 0 13 11 9 7 5 18 3 0 7 6 2 5 8 2 10 8 13 4 16 10 11 20 13 11 0 0 0 5 0 14 2 8 13 9 14 0 2 0 14 9 0 6 9 7 8 11 17 9 4 12 9 14 19 17 14 22 16 14 6 9 2 13 5 10 7 9 13 17 14 18 19 2 4 11 18 14 13 8 14 16 19 14 7 2 16 13 5 17 19 22 16 29 18 17 21 17 21 3 12 25 16 22 17 25 7 15 22 4 9 11 20 15 7 11 26 19 24 10 5 16 19 25 17 16 21 10 14 27 13 25 38 19 37 60 22 41 28 27 12 18 39 37 38 49 38 27 43 26 34 26 25 27 6 28 17 24 24 32 12 32 14 26 32 30 37 11 40 28 28 8 19 12 30 38 18 44 48 35 15 36 60 32 32 27 11 31 34 21 31 28 37 29 10 27 39 22 16 29 19 29 38 23 35 7 12 6 19 9 11 18 17 7 10 6 15 8 28 16 13 4 7 13 18 3 19 9 31 18 20 25 9 2 5 15 4 6 14 10 17 13 19 12 16 24 16 9 13 18 14 8 21 28 13 20 18 21 6 16 5 12 10 18 13 32 21 22 13 47 10 7 31 23 15 7 24 169=N 1067=I M918z -2(26F3.0)~ 133 18 28 33 18 51133164158 60119213184164228198123202 96141123102127125126 70 159134152 76 86128108124 79143107 68 91100114 75113 98 66 87 97 95122140116 87 133103 78 14 59 74 17 44 55 46 12 71 77 70 91 67 79 44 67107 79 12 42 88 51 45 42 30 42 58 50 93 1 46 63 46 70 72 56 56 71 56 30 75 28 34 17 12 43 51 40 44 23 54 44 52 39 60 62 56 46 39 45 32 39 36 54 6 30 45 30 31 39 42 24 16 42 7 38 20 14 23 23 22 27 24 50 36 58102 31 12 59 33 12 23 23 8 10 31 14 8 18 24 24 4 20 13 21 18 18 24 32 26 12 24 18 141=N 1073=I M723 -2(26F3.0)~ 154219189124182207146142167129112143118118124 74 80 82 90 21 92 91129 39 53 74 75100 81111 66 46 60 73 53 48 59 72 28 66 59 56 73 69 55 52 84 59 51 18 55 28 14 26 39 25 14 57 33 34 53 39 51 27 62 61 53 8 25 63 27 36 19 17 31 33 28 52 0 20 31 13 24 41 33 34 41 35 6 31 15 27 5 8 20 32 28 34 3 34 0 33 22 33 35 26 24 20 23 12 24 23 18 7 6 22 8 11 14 16 12 6 15 0 24 10 11 11 12 8 22 14 13 12 13 22 24 10 13 12 7 177=N 1074=I K166 -2(26F3.0)~ 5 3 2 5 3 2 3 4 3 5 9 6 7 5 7 10 7 6 13 24 21 11 4 6 8 14 20 13 19 22 18 30 28 19 27 29 21 30 22 36 44 58 55 58 39 42 32 22 10 29 22 14 19 33 43 11 54 84 49 77 46 82 59 74 68 59 8 36 60 78 74 81 90 48104100150 36 85 49 57 95 94101 93128112 95129 54 43 40 17 52 81 69130 65113 97113 48 82129 102 94 87107 61105117137108 93 89 73 70 67 95 64 26 66 4 50 51 47 70 92 72 88 69 73 51 66112 38 10 79 56 15 41 22 33 28 43 15 27 50 78 85 28 91 56 78 60 72 75140 80 29 53 47 55 8 36 18 54 23 29 17 15 18 14 28 22 18 15 199=N 1090=I M710 -2(26F3.0)~ 52 77 35124112129 60 72102106139 58105110 53 76123 68 54 72 71 77 63 81 86 57 52 91 40 82 68 31 5 45 37 10 26 37 24 0 49 50 48 60 30 53 34 37 62 64 7 20 68 49 40 44 25 21 23 23 53 6 30 40 27 62 91 58 67 92 76 19 86 6 36 4 11 24 62 29 27 7 82 7 36 61 84160 83 65 58119 35 65 32 60 15 15 42 32 29 35 34 32 14 31 4 44 35 31 14 16 7 21 16 22 13 26 53 4 3 35 25 12 4 24 0 4 22 5 9 13 23 19 5 21 11 22 18 10 19 21 30 4 22 14 13 0 5 16 31 18 12 2 18 18 16 23 26 18 20 12 12 16 15 25 13 13 11 0 18 24 19 4 3 21 13 19 29 14 25 5 24 14 4 14 7 4 15 10 10 11 7 3 8 16 12 15 6 176=N 1103=I M917 -2(26F3.0)~ 27 38 30 42 33 29 35 65 30 59 61 53 50 57 61 52 70 58 46 24 51 24 12 28 31 27 17 53 54 36 65 62 75 43 50112104 57 59116 91100 84 52 59 69 73106 31 50105 85 129 68 64 73 79 55 45 71 35 55 37 47 51 76 55 62 38 84 43 66 62 64105 68 48 36 50 34 50 55 62 31 26 34 22 29 43 43 31 30 34 4 27 35 40 31 38 27 36 27 22 16 18 27 15 2 32 10 10 16 31 17 6 31 9 12 21 22 19 3 25 17 32 24 24 29 36 31 17 34 7 25 8 16 10 27 19 16 10 22 26 17 25 24 12 23 9 17 19 22 20 17 23 13 5 16 20 23 12 3 27 16 17 29 22 35 6 38 34 22 35 27 17 24 467=N 1151=I K038 -2(26F3.0)~ 9 5 8 8 10 20 35 43 57 44 30 42 47 30 23 17 32 36 22 33 25 28 16 37 46 35 42 29 21 19 30 28 42 59 55 15 31 43 17 24 16 26 16 8 18 3 32 34 45 43 48 29 66 48 62 21 22 77 20 3 60 39 14 22 27 21 23 47 20 20 47 71 96 16 58 46 48 24 50 85100103 42 54 21 48 6 20 9 43 31 42 29 65 69 47 83 46 38 51 30 27 25 21 28 20 21 12 4 20 28 41 12 11 46 41 44 49 19 22 6 26 21 11 40 17 15 24 11 15 17 17 8 10 9 4 9 11 6 20 9 14 2 8 17 9 10 13 15 7 26 2 21 27 7 10 26 23 7 21 21 27 25 12 50 13 14 28 26 20 26 31 23 35 41 58 33 48 39 24 33 35 25 9 10 2 8 2 21 10 15 40 19 20 2 7 4 13 15 2 15 13 15 15 19 15 11 5 13 12 20 25 16 15 17 20 11 8 11 2 15 6 12 5 9 9 10 6 12 8 2 6 4 9 5 5 4 14 16 18 6 4 2 5 6 2 10 5 9 9 11 6 9 11 12 14 4 7 22 2 5 6 18 2 7 10 4 8 8 13 9 6 9 18 16 9 9 4 15 13 25 17 9 17 6 8 17 9 26 24 13 21 30 12 25 15 18 5 7 30 13 18 24 12 13 22 17 28 12 15 22 3 25 17 10 21 26 7 25 19 20 17 19 19 2 28 11 10 3 10 8 21 19 14 12 17 9 2 15 14 7 14 11 5 12 13 17 8 8 12 6 2 10 17 11 11 14 13 4 14 8 10 3 10 3 10 9 10 16 12 2 7 2 6 5 11 12 13 2 7 10 10 2 7 10 17 5 10 13 2 2 5 7 3 8 12 5 16 14 36 20 26 22 15 5 7 15 14 13 18 12 9 12 17 17 15 16 3 15 8 11 15 20 14 13 4 18 2 5 16 2 12 7 18 2 16 8 11 2 17 2 10 10 15 9 9 9 18 10 2 4 9 5 6 12 10 12 5 2 16 3 4 8 3 4 5 3 107=N 1154=I M707 -2(26F3.0)~ 26 62 90 65 49 77134 34 69 18 41 19 19 23 49 33 47 16 28 20 33 39 64104 57 39 33 68 38 55 66 72 31 17 31 25 33 40 49 33 24 36 6 37 41 41 34 39 32 45 32 38 14 27 54 18 8 48 39 18 31 53 27 8 30 16 20 30 41 30 14 60 41 56 34 23 36 48 42 19 39 23 38 12 36 30 68 45 38 22 35 33 25 30 37 23 31 18 20 38 30 35 24 30 34 22 38 470=N 1157=I K009 -2(26F3.0)~ 9 7 10 7 8 13 14 11 9 5 5 6 13 19 7 7 4 5 4 4 8 3 6 3 8 7 6 6 18 8 4 6 5 3 7 5 12 7 9 3 9 7 12 19 18 20 24 21 9 5 11 19 5 3 13 10 5 6 4 2 5 4 5 2 8 5 3 2 7 9 14 8 16 32 46 42 24 38 24 27 4 10 6 12 26 40 32 26 34 28 39 20 24 35 16 18 28 26 33 36 38 19 14 28 33 37 21 22 29 32 42 54 39 29 13 32 27 14 31 22 35 46 48 35 35 69 24 10 30 22 31 29 17 49 28 23 10 12 38 20 36 18 19 19 31 10 31 63 27 49 59 34 24 53 52 40 45 39 57 31 9 13 17 27 38 44 38 99 89 84 79 98 88 38 36 28 24 11 15 2 17 6 19 16 21 57 86 81 10 28 22 47 46 16 32 35 37 53 82 61 44 35 34 41 88 90 54 44 53 40 27 24 31 13 25 12 24 14 19 19 35 23 16 19 2 16 21 30 12 12 20 57 47 67 62 65 7 24 32 5 40 33 30 23 12 8 13 14 19 35 11 11 44 27 11 13 30 15 15 34 27 27 13 24 16 12 7 17 16 13 14 6 15 21 28 20 18 24 12 15 38 18 34 39 31 31 36 20 37 13 22 6 4 29 25 35 37 12 11 22 22 28 17 25 17 2 28 11 9 8 17 3 25 11 16 15 27 24 3 43 25 19 6 21 12 18 21 7 27 54 81 22 55 68 36 64 59 37 62 58 57 38 37 28 30 4 11 26 42 29 30 15 13 21 12 24 10 11 5 16 14 15 19 14 14 16 8 16 16 16 17 20 2 15 30 15 4 15 17 39 30 47 48 29 14 18 33 12 11 27 9 36 28 35 45 53 44 42 23 20 33 21 16 20 21 21 37 34 29 16 24 14 31 25 24 31 19 2 25 19 24 8 5 20 10 17 13 25 6 24 22 16 2 22 3 11 13 19 12 13 16 40 25 4 14 16 4 9 14 3 11 6 13 14 5 7 13 3 6 11 14 2 8 10 12 6 13 31 11 21 393=N 1158=I K012 -2(26F3.0)~ 29 33 43 13 27 12 13 5 5 8 10 8 10 5 12 7 13 8 9 11 8 9 12 23 28 29 38 41 4 26 11 12 11 15 18 15 5 13 2 15 17 20 27 23 20 21 14 7 12 21 49 14 5 27 30 8 12 18 9 13 15 17 13 22 33 31 4 40 34 26 21 38 51 54 35 14 27 17 28 4 27 12 36 37 34 18 32 48 41 65 32 21 40 34 86 89 76 66 92108 42 45 90113 114 37 38 84 45 51 75 42 53 14 53 60 35 74 37 36 71 63 70 80 84 35 21 34 18 44 31 18 58 31 41 8 20 35 29 26 25 40 17 44 8 34 54 28 27 40 34 23 26 77102 85 85105 37 27 33 52 36 54 58 35 77 97129 96112109 86 95 86 98 9 6 3 6 6 18 11 13 24 21 18 2 7 7 22 23 4 20 31 16 26 38 34 3 11 21 17 45 43 33 35 44 43 17 10 10 4 16 8 19 12 17 24 30 28 62 51 6 14 20 48 28 27 12 57 76 64 32 38 10 31 49 32 68 47 44 46 56 43 62 83 76 73 25 49103 40 44 39 77 35 48 68 26 33 27 57 53 46 34 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40 44 20 33 43 48 44 72 87 86 64 71 41 56 55 40 51 73 63 44 29 39 20 33 12 36 27 26 28 27 24 29 32 8 39 36 54 32 30 33 50 83 73 45 47 4 33 39 23 43 48 41 39 46 34 47 32 22 27 23 26 34 28 32 29 50 28 26 40 32 51 26 47 33 20 29 59 52 64 55 15 33 24 29 15 21 18 9 12 26 11 29 39 17 30 52 21 35 22 12 9 11 22 16 21 25 6 10 15 11 14 13 12 23 4 32 13 15 18 21 13 25 15 23 521=N 1229=I K115 -2(26F3.0)~ 16 24 21 26 16 18 9 14 6 16 14 34 49 24 13 28 22 9 17 15 7 9 16 22 18 12 17 26 22 8 11 14 25 48 19 6 18 16 27 20 10 9 4 15 14 11 27 13 11 16 9 11 19 20 2 3 18 9 17 13 8 15 10 20 5 10 22 12 10 14 16 4 23 5 10 17 2 16 28 11 8 11 20 13 26 28 41 18 13 9 13 8 18 16 20 19 10 27 15 21 29 30 60 37 28 6 9 6 18 9 26 13 20 22 23 25 2 26 14 17 21 8 28 45 36 26 30 17 18 15 31 24 35 41 25 32 45 36 16 20 30 9 25 12 22 9 14 20 18 22 27 21 2 19 20 27 10 13 11 7 16 22 13 10 0 9 8 2 25 13 17 21 23 13 11 9 12 16 3 6 13 11 2 4 21 2 8 12 4 3 7 8 9 7 3 12 20 14 11 2 8 6 12 10 4 11 4 6 13 12 20 32 8 24 20 13 19 9 14 2 7 25 23 25 32 10 12 25 16 24 17 22 21 2 19 9 10 13 10 0 12 10 8 9 13 18 2 26 14 9 4 10 3 14 12 3 8 20 7 5 9 16 12 22 22 7 21 33 24 20 13 17 12 9 16 22 26 19 30 10 12 18 19 21 2 7 0 10 6 3 8 2 3 8 0 3 2 11 6 7 0 8 4 7 0 8 2 12 6 9 8 4 0 7 9 5 3 8 0 3 11 12 9 8 6 9 0 5 19 9 4 8 7 5 11 14 16 7 13 2 11 9 14 16 13 11 2 0 19 2 6 15 5 6 4 14 2 11 8 13 2 19 7 8 7 11 8 10 9 25 13 6 12 19 10 15 25 12 11 19 27 29 20 19 19 15 16 18 21 5 9 10 17 5 15 19 13 24 22 15 14 31 15 24 19 28 33 22 35 7 29 40 28 5 18 7 32 38 18 23 19 18 14 29 11 26 19 23 10 28 30 7 25 16 21 14 22 26 38 25 25 13 21 20 22 11 16 20 15 7 8 11 7 6 11 10 2 21 11 2 16 13 16 13 16 6 21 0 10 2 7 10 6 5 10 7 22 17 20 2 14 6 4 13 9 2 21 17 18 2 11 6 8 10 10 13 17 13 19 3 22 11 6 2 8 12 0 7 2 15 12 16 18 8 2 20 18 14 12 14 11 631=N 1231=I K052 -2(26F3.0)~ 30 37 18 34 5 38 4 14 5 26 18 34 12 32 50 29 40 34 15 16 39 26 40 37 59 43 44 12 15 30 37 72 15 18 38 29 49 32 9 20 8 36 52 17 48 6 14 34 23 24 28 22 7 29 24 16 30 29 15 43 37 36 12 27 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27 35 34 16 16 37 26 43 27 21 33 8 39 28 26 20 27 16 49 26 42 43 38 48 12 47 33 17 9 10 8 16 24 13 22 23 20 8 17 27 27 41 27 11 25 25 31 19 16 15 14 6 12 28 13 6 18 5 7 13 7 12 5 11 6 174=N 1357=I K098 -2(26F3.0)~ 25 20 26 23 28 31 23 26 38 39 29 37 55 35 55 26 62 54 37 54 36 42 50 59 24 37 52 94 48 58 32 85100 96 51 48 2 32 53 29 69 56 33 70 89 41 91 60 53 70 31 45 81104 92 62107 65 49 81 44 75 47101 53 38 47 58 66 53 88 25 46 43 83 47 36 42 38 33 60 27 59 70 39 70105 34 77 46 38 14 10 51 32 45 49 32 23 47 57 71 35 40 60 11 60 31 40 42 45 13 59 27 52 40 36 48 8 50 36 23 4 14 6 25 27 12 21 29 13 2 13 27 17 25 19 6 23 26 28 17 10 17 11 2 16 32 14 5 17 4 8 13 5 20 2 9 3 15 5 10 16 9 3 9 2 6 5 16 14 11 9 11 461=N 1359=I K043 -2(26F3.0)~ 9 27 35 40 25 27 52 41 35 25 35 23 34 23 35 25 20 43 46 56 70 68 27 54 65102 51 67 60 91 83 74 52 41 13 40 49 32 70 60 59 66 50 43 43 45 45 52 7 17 25 57 31 30 67 22 44 67 52 48 41 46 48 50 25 56 46 33 33 18 28 14 22 22 14 26 17 29 46 24 30 45 23 32 54 20 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17 17 10 18 8 15 10 9 8 2 4 6 6 9 9 10 2 145=N 1359=I K173 -2(26F3.0)~ 22 13 35 53 34 27 42 35 47 40 60 50 51 33 40 54 30 43 44 31 48 57 44 43 54 46 41 47 42 73130171129157 15 53 73 37 56 41 43 39 93 68 59 42 50 49 38 32 62 51 56 69 81 56 26 49 46 65 46 58 50 41 53 51 40 43 77 51 62 59 71 48 52 65 39 22 46 24 34 63 17 42 90 24 47 30 40 25 16 40 24 39 55 33 22 33 30 43 28 27 29 10 41 22 19 29 41 19 41 32 43 45 44 31 10 43 56 21 18 25 18 26 27 17 24 30 24 5 28 35 27 29 17 4 15 13 5 11 2 10 12 2 10 457=N 1363=I K035 -2(26F3.0)~ 25 54 47 39 31 34 36 28 45 15 77 52 45 51 45 34 4 17 6 17 21 16 14 20 16 48 51 68 28 21 13 24 36 21 66 65 64 43 92 50 97 71 76 71 33 40 68 51 50 62 84 39 38 45 25 32 24 30 32 38 28 46 57 21 18 5 24 35 50 47 55 60 18 17 51 21 45 52 16 34 55 18 43 24 20 9 8 40 31 36 33 14 14 23 20 30 23 27 21 8 36 18 20 23 20 10 31 18 31 20 18 22 4 37 11 10 2 8 4 13 16 4 14 29 8 3 9 18 11 31 26 10 23 28 31 15 22 19 17 2 9 22 18 21 17 11 4 15 11 18 14 10 9 15 25 40 35 34 21 11 5 17 9 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78 79 43 62 80 62 65 62 20 37 45 40 21 38 42 15 19 46 32 48 46 16 38 56 15 44 31 24 17 12 33 16 19 21 7 11 20 14 22 13 27 26 11 34 25 26 25 33 13 34 26 30 32 34 36 285=N 1391=I K078 -2(26F3.0)~ 9 8 4 5 8 7 12 13 13 14 18 13 10 8 6 6 8 11 16 9 9 7 12 8 6 9 5 9 10 12 12 15 6 10 17 35 24 14 26 29 24 11 15 18 12 8 18 8 9 8 3 6 11 6 14 15 12 12 5 14 15 17 24 14 11 10 8 16 24 21 26 21 34 28 18 19 20 17 26 13 17 18 25 28 16 37 37 38 19 35 24 45 73 42 60 82 50 24 32 54 36 37 50 28 54 51 44 35 46 51 52 37 37106 65 73 48 39 28 43 41 52 40 32 39 75 49 69 69 58 45 41 24 36 24 37 52 45 22 21 46 45 23 36 50 75 61 74101 66 22 31 45 19 43 62 31 53 55 61 39 39 44 42 22 25 43 27 28 44 46 37 37 54 43 32 43 27 37 39 43 57 62 59 45 18 67 21 14 53 32 41 14 59 29 42 30 31 24 49 19 44 32 49 22 44 36 70 76 41 46 65 39 39 75 42 33 23 42 89 47 53 50 24 49 49 47 13 17 16 16 10 21 24 17 25 19 10 13 31 12 24 14 18 27 26 46 19 39 38 40 16 23 14 20 15 15 6 12 10 7 15 6 13 10 11 7 11 17 9 18 19 16 5 7 13 21 14 17 9 10 7 7 5 10 220=N 1395=I M712 -2(26F3.0)~ 65 40 64 86 66 77 95 68109104108135 89 88117 89 88 71 91 44 57 61 30 31 18 32 36 31 21 37 49 44 62 35 28 55 50 38 43 53 37 33 52 11 31 26 6 18 26 9 25 15 13 6 3 18 24 33 17 5 10 15 14 21 13 15 14 4 19 11 17 15 19 10 30 12 23 17 13 21 0 24 14 11 14 16 6 15 23 16 14 13 9 7 12 15 12 19 8 7 13 15 17 10 16 10 14 4 12 18 18 8 9 7 6 11 7 12 10 9 10 9 8 13 11 7 8 6 0 5 6 10 18 13 3 8 17 12 3 29 13 25 23 30 18 12 4 15 19 7 5 14 15 25 29 47 26 27 21 17 4 5 23 13 10 21 17 16 14 15 14 16 17 14 9 12 10 21 9 20 11 0 17 8 5 17 6 9 7 16 3 10 11 8 0 11 7 11 10 7 10 9 8 9 7 3 4 11 13 10 8 13 4 13 28 24 13 5 18 7 167=N 1396=I K200 -2(26F3.0)~ 11 26 22 18 14 27 22 30 28 36 64 50 46 59 26 45 63 74 47 27 60 31 46 17 55 28 33 37 47 57 55 71 26 49 65 63 57 75 59 36 29 73 32 58 72 63 66115 30 83 62 53 28 24 52 42 84 82 51 47 56 43 77 49 41 69 28 57 36 45 43 39 35 69 28 52 34 42 49 21 70 44 40 10 23 11 19 40 18 45 55 58 21 52 79 36 52 42 29 48 39 37 47 66 55 46 12 15 51 24 30 29 40 28 30 28 49 14 17 11 28 6 15 24 18 12 20 7 15 10 17 26 21 5 7 11 3 1 10 9 17 12 28 37 29 5 16 20 5 14 15 4 22 13 28 22 19 16 18 6 4 13 6 8 10 13 10 393=N 1402=I K034 -2(26F3.0)~ 20 42 45 34 24 16 28 60 68 40 39 66 46 48 53 61 43 44 47 50 45 29 42 50 45 26 8 23 43 53 50 64 48 27 16 39 24 39 58 33 52 70 22 86 56 55 20 25 75 64 56 63 15 16 28 29 36 36 26 28 7 30 12 10 9 21 6 25 16 19 25 24 29 2 26 21 18 15 16 9 22 31 7 20 28 28 7 22 33 27 30 23 8 23 24 27 30 27 30 27 10 15 44 40 43 36 24 9 18 15 31 28 29 18 19 19 20 36 19 4 6 2 16 24 46 39 49 19 46 62 52 7 30 38 53 30 58 60 24 10 22 24 12 19 37 15 44 44 45 34 90 66 41 23 25 62 46 32 46 37 21 41 53 51 25 33 13 29 57 42 34 8 13 20 4 31 15 19 31 24 18 9 35 5 36 46 27 2 51 21 30 59 63 34 49 47 49 52 28 29 29 9 16 29 17 34 27 6 26 15 10 27 14 24 32 9 3 9 15 23 0 15 28 24 26 36 14 26 59 20 30 31 21 36 40 50 2 34 60 31 2 20 8 21 20 2 12 16 8 12 31 17 25 20 21 7 42 61 32 51 53 22 22 39 47 49 64 66 50 49 47 52 20 19 30 26 15 16 34 15 31 36 25 12 26 24 30 43 43 42 36 33 35 47 8 20 9 3 18 18 17 18 41 85 74 68 44 54 41 38 40 49 4 43 49 46 3 42 40 41 33 25 37 60 36 60 13 53 69 46 29 28 30 18 18 31 24 44 44 21 6 44 51 36 45 50 63 35 32 24 32 14 20 19 22 44 12 7 2 35 25 36 25 24 38 53 31 61 20 31 17 4 19 39 15 29 22 6 20 19 25 12 23 19 13 21 19 34 32 10 25 37 20 592=N 1403=I K004 -2(26F3.0)~ 15 12 14 23 8 11 17 10 9 11 20 12 13 14 11 31 17 29 22 18 29 26 13 6 13 10 14 14 22 27 42 38 12 15 35 19 25 41 30 26 50 27 37 32 32 18 26 42 32 32 47 21 36 48 36 23 35 29 35 11 30 29 25 32 41 19 31 32 32 29 28 30 11 43 38 25 22 24 23 34 31 21 29 31 30 17 35 42 42 34 31 20 31 36 27 42 37 52 32 28 40 57 36 39 31 40 16 19 17 18 19 24 29 28 33 32 37 18 8 6 8 14 14 15 22 20 16 11 16 23 10 32 36 28 38 26 25 15 5 14 23 13 15 24 10 22 32 28 30 42 39 31 26 27 38 37 42 50 40 43 44 57 44 35 49 31 41 39 29 40 29 32 37 22 30 18 20 22 22 13 18 26 12 22 21 20 5 19 13 16 18 21 19 17 18 30 28 14 14 21 12 12 16 14 22 13 18 19 15 22 23 14 14 18 19 9 10 19 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25 19 13 19 17 19 17 12 21 11 5 16 24 18 19 29 8 19 17 20 24 17 20 21 21 3 22 20 27 22 24 419=N 1404=I K026 -2(26F3.0)~ 74 86132 74 50 78 72 67 66 95 57 50 96 84 90 60 56 60 62 36 54 57 24 28 28 50 56139114101115 54 87109 93 93134 81 93112 45 79 46 60 18 65129100101105 60 49 73 43 81 77 95103 15107 68 57 74102 16130 62 68 56 72 82 27129 42 33 27 36 27 51 48 20 47 50 38 15 48 50 27 34 49 22 51 56 36 31 41 41 32 3 49 80 48 68 35 35 20 27 12 39 5 21 7 27 12 28 35 21 11 12 15 26 17 36 36 30 7 12 27 41 10 21 42 54 37 37 39 23 7 23 24 15 20 34 29 49 19 47 32 54 30 31 18 28 50 30 28 52 27 24 40 58 51 39 49 25 50 37 33 58 70 52 52 16 44 15 21 56 25 29 8 37 15 40 26 23 2 32 12 24 14 32 20 22 19 36 24 10 25 23 10 11 28 20 31 25 20 37 25 22 40 16 30 23 11 2 10 14 15 2 15 23 14 17 18 13 20 23 2 23 15 15 21 16 21 3 25 26 18 5 20 3 21 7 9 9 17 2 12 14 26 26 17 17 10 14 19 5 16 8 15 8 10 13 22 15 20 15 20 16 22 2 17 14 15 8 7 19 10 10 16 12 2 16 18 19 21 17 16 7 20 5 19 2 10 9 9 22 24 9 25 73 53 24 23 8 16 6 4 21 14 5 22 17 15 2 15 12 14 11 2 10 13 7 19 2 18 14 8 10 12 17 5 6 21 22 19 23 16 4 26 22 16 17 22 20 18 13 5 14 7 9 10 16 29 14 8 8 19 19 27 14 21 14 23 17 25 8 12 11 2 15 19 10 28 15 7 17 9 15 4 18 11 6 17 4 19 15 11 9 21 26 3 13 5 2 14 3 15 9 11 13 22 23 5 21 11 10 11 8 15 6 15 8 13 10 8 4 12 9 143=N 1409=I K184 -2(26F3.0)~ 75 64 70 60 64 54 50 88 72114 91125106 96102 98165200170 35 87165183 99137157 144103177 85165225161167250 89171152131 86 79138127205145 93 69100 66209165114 143 52121 90122100 89 76103 54 76 45 75 80 30 65 45 40 11 34 30 55100 57 91 76 82 37 54 89 63 74 67 58 85 88 74 84 80 42 47 29 39 98 53 61 48 74 39 52 35 51 20 36 25 41 21 27 33 34 19 39 16 26 19 31 29 25 15 14 24 19 5 18 15 33 20 39 41 21 4 9 18 5 7 14 4 15 10 13 11 371=N 1429=I K048 -2(26F3.0)~ 64 58 30 15 7 13 2 7 17 7 24 27 14 32 42 20 52 22 29 9 13 40 34 38 39 13 13 26 23 23 20 19 19 4 31 23 19 19 28 5 32 22 26 28 42 48 12 57 36 30 23 32 8 42 50 26 43 59 38 18 43 67 52 49 43 16 32 52 46 43 42 41 39 15 40 64 47 37 46 67 35 53 51 70 38 35 29 36 24 25 52 18 13 15 13 17 11 20 32 24 8 22 38 30 5 27 22 26 19 31 33 25 18 17 27 12 29 30 8 30 31 39 33 59 34 28 23 68 90 61 52 55 38 31 40 37 39 26 56 31 34 27 28 48 49 35 38 7 53 18 25 69 35 37 25 53 24 44 32 35 8 46 19 41 23 54 24 34 33 55 57 14 28 38 13 26 30 44 36 23 38 41 31 30 60 19 25 26 35 6 17 20 19 2 25 28 13 16 17 6 14 18 3 19 13 14 23 24 37 8 21 36 27 2 26 4 31 27 21 13 37 30 13 35 4 37 25 21 7 25 21 8 20 14 13 7 10 17 30 27 25 21 28 18 40 10 24 30 33 19 20 24 20 4 11 9 2 23 10 18 31 17 27 17 29 9 30 4 15 2 16 22 9 8 26 31 31 27 30 15 23 17 10 24 46 2 42 36 35 2 23 17 14 13 5 15 12 11 29 7 31 20 12 11 20 20 3 6 14 11 28 25 17 7 33 32 36 30 48 44 36 31 16 28 17 7 22 24 36 14 11 3 27 12 19 19 20 17 22 11 25 12 18 12 2 22 25 10 33 19 5 14 14 21 12 21 18 11 24 8 17 9 6 9 16 20 8 14 6 5 6 356=N 1442=I K036 -2(26F3.0)~ 16 42 14 32 26 24 10 12 41 28 35 41 16 23 39 20 29 47 46 49 21 44 35 24 28 38 10 30 23 34 25 45 49 13 56 25 13 4 11 14 26 28 11 38 43 32 10 34 41 24 35 25 9 29 34 26 32 47 53 32 15 34 68 52 42 37 30 18 29 24 33 16 19 13 18 26 34 44 36 27 20 22 26 24 47 54 38 11 25 47 50 5 31 30 49 28 34 30 26 2 24 21 14 32 40 12 45 28 41 37 41 38 23 8 8 39 34 29 45 41 31 51 48 40 24 40 8 27 25 31 25 20 29 33 6 38 6 12 27 12 19 12 27 2 40 42 38 2 38 16 25 35 47 37 41 39 94 60 33 37 36 18 29 41 23 38 23 48 56 24 33 42 19 23 45 24 3 16 17 29 2 24 31 25 41 34 20 29 41 4 22 16 27 26 24 27 2 30 26 22 0 14 2 23 8 5 11 19 10 21 36 5 27 29 26 15 43 42 8 31 19 14 8 14 26 36 30 37 22 28 22 29 18 25 31 21 9 10 17 5 3 14 12 2 34 21 14 18 10 15 13 18 4 33 3 6 3 2 24 17 8 10 16 38 32 27 2 32 17 11 31 29 3 28 24 22 2 19 18 16 18 4 13 23 27 54 4 27 27 26 19 25 37 19 21 33 39 50 41 12 5 44 25 16 20 28 18 15 11 13 16 10 13 12 15 28 4 3 2 24 22 20 4 19 24 37 13 30 6 20 3 2 15 15 14 24 15 0 9 3 13 8 11 12 2 18 8 15 17 6 15 26 25 6 10 7 211=N 1463=I K104 -2(26F3.0)~ 32 34 48 42 53 41 85 40 60 63 78 92 43 63 41 32 22 31 22 48 54 29 80 79 47 24 56 88 99127 95 66120100109 74 83 67 60 23 30 75 63 36 43 30 22 27 23 46 35 30 33 55 35 40 36 39 33 53 22 58 32 52 68 50 25 33 35 18 12 28 32 35 38 52 70 52 14 30 34 22 28 34 18 27 13 29 22 31 24 30 6 20 34 13 10 15 16 11 18 27 18 11 17 5 13 14 11 24 5 12 15 8 34 13 9 28 13 14 10 38 14 22 18 22 7 37 10 17 10 15 9 14 9 31 17 7 13 17 3 8 20 16 9 21 18 26 20 10 28 22 24 28 16 6 13 14 24 7 22 33 21 24 17 9 5 16 7 14 10 11 12 10 17 11 24 25 40 5 18 9 25 17 11 4 16 7 12 22 3 15 14 13 9 16 15 3 16 15 11 7 9 15 23 17 21 13 16 13 16 500=N 1487=I X002 -2(26F3.0)~ 10 9 13 41 37 36 26 27 46 43 24 26 22 24 20 11 28 37 21 20 22 29 10 14 15 23 5 13 12 12 13 15 24 27 24 17 14 18 13 22 29 25 5 11 13 11 0 5 14 16 10 24 26 22 7 14 21 10 6 14 7 23 30 37 18 13 13 11 4 5 18 14 10 19 14 8 9 10 4 3 5 4 5 8 6 23 11 6 5 3 13 6 6 15 7 7 7 18 3 17 16 13 0 20 11 16 12 16 10 11 7 10 10 10 10 15 4 13 23 20 19 25 26 32 31 18 53 25 16 28 9 4 8 8 15 0 12 14 7 16 19 13 13 24 16 22 19 16 23 22 31 19 36 42 44 0 15 9 25 26 16 5 17 19 17 29 8 22 26 27 16 21 23 10 28 23 9 27 25 30 50 40 37 11 21 27 37 25 14 19 21 10 20 22 18 2 16 10 3 21 14 12 14 10 10 18 19 10 31 4 12 5 0 16 14 13 17 30 31 30 30 10 25 24 16 22 29 14 39 25 28 0 29 28 24 20 20 24 29 24 38 7 44 23 22 4 20 14 0 6 13 18 27 18 15 12 26 28 19 15 37 43 29 20 18 32 20 17 12 19 33 35 22 5 31 23 39 31 40 51 43 28 52 19 25 19 5 36 51 35 49 38 17 30 22 39 25 38 40 7 39 26 39 42 25 37 39 74 25 31 28 5 16 3 32 29 35 25 32 29 0 37 19 25 10 0 12 15 10 11 13 17 7 6 16 24 4 9 0 7 13 21 12 0 26 9 5 16 18 11 6 11 11 13 10 15 11 11 8 12 6 12 4 21 5 25 19 13 20 25 27 18 13 40 33 25 15 17 25 7 10 32 15 12 15 22 10 11 30 19 27 36 28 29 15 20 26 9 6 19 31 27 5 19 38 40 33 38 27 30 45 15 0 8 4 22 18 20 18 16 14 42 15 12 13 0 12 24 25 26 19 24 24 37 23 30 28 33 14 36 17 48 48 38 24 39 32 21 25 24 18 25 24 34 43 31 47 27 42 39 6 49 22 23 25 14 30 10 24 16 17 6 19 20 23 18 12 20 15 18 28 11 24 18 16 22 6 5 19 30 9 31 44 12 25 29 29 41 12 34 150=N 1529=I K010 -2(26F3.0)~ 17 35 40 44 15 65 34 76 67150167106 38 45 68 22 84 30 10 69 51 41 27 67102106 29 40 87 62 48 60 86 41 66 91101 54 64 37 68 85 63 72 34 39 26 17 80 10 24 63 49 48 31117 26 53 77 43 2 54 4 19 19 35 14 24 29 65 50 30 35 27 6 33 35 26 35 43 30 55 22 26 39 21 25 33 28 2 11 10 20 2 18 22 11 33 30 18 30 42 16 69 46 51 39 44 57 22 48 46 43 12 31 16 41 14 22 11 43 25 25 51 12 58 42 16 7 22 45 4 27 5 8 2 11 21 21 12 16 7 11 9 11 2 8 13 13 6 273=N 1538=I K103 -2(26F3.0)~ 49 80 46 25 40 46 17 32 33 15 23 21 15 16 21 22 37 17 19 48 35 29 40 48 44 36 51 52 27 40 31 42 47 30 65 34 37 44 23 65 41 34 70 46 29 18 65 27 47 43 44 30 74 37 50 44 56 21 49 32 58 39 30 33 38 21 24 63 57 45 48 58 34 23 34 28 37 55 49 17 29 32 35 50 17 23 67 51 67 50 23 27 68 40 39 27 37 29 17 27 17 36 33 40 13 27 15 44 29 25 16 27 14 15 50 27 41 18 24 10 22 30 10 26 24 19 10 31 45 42 49 72 53 42 35 29 15 17 19 24 19 19 14 10 15 19 6 4 21 15 13 21 18 21 20 25 14 18 7 8 2 4 6 10 5 7 17 23 24 24 11 22 13 8 21 18 10 30 21 32 7 18 10 11 15 13 12 16 8 23 2 27 19 14 10 10 18 17 13 12 23 32 20 19 2 17 18 12 25 20 25 17 8 16 21 10 5 3 13 17 6 4 7 13 6 17 12 15 18 20 16 21 4 11 11 2 11 16 12 17 14 7 8 11 18 12 11 8 11 14 9 15 14 11 16 14 20 10 10 6 3 13 6 11 10 12 9 12 16 10 8 3 7 256=N 1552=I K027 -2(26F3.0)~ 24 14 9 5 3 18 23 22 29 24 35 45 53 47 30 36 13 26 24 25 31 47 26 39 10 39 19 20 39 28 46 31 62 21 54 38 22 2 40 14 21 26 50 37 38 24 42 51 26 26 33 23 22 42 44 37 35 37 45 32 27 73 34 31 42 33 5 15 23 35 7 51 45 34 40 40 29 40 51 22 27 38 40 54 45 47 33 51 68 43 12 22 7 22 21 16 14 46 42 35 56 4 47 56 43 19 44 48 18 50 42 24 51 25 33 52 42 37 25 23 28 30 13 9 31 32 17 11 27 7 6 23 2 18 29 26 25 26 21 22 26 35 20 45 2 20 2 6 27 20 11 29 31 69 43 34 20 36 35 7 29 41 6 49 36 35 3 40 38 37 32 9 33 23 19 46 8 49 40 44 37 40 41 9 12 38 32 26 33 22 7 44 33 25 26 39 41 33 34 12 34 25 22 24 38 81 16 15 4 36 15 17 14 28 28 36 15 19 7 31 23 4 29 28 16 40 27 3 25 30 35 40 44 27 35 41 26 42 40 12 15 36 31 7 45 19 11 37 3 23 15 17 15 10 14 13 432=N 1559=I R221 -2(26F3.0)~ 18 32 24 21 35 43 36 39 43 31 54 42 38 42 50 24 36 17 32 35 19 62 87 46 48 67 35 59 43 29 0 25 11 13 16 27 24 20 13 18 22 10 12 11 17 13 20 14 17 16 18 17 11 13 22 17 13 20 24 7 8 7 11 8 18 20 17 13 22 12 29 49 28 28 36 27 35 60 53 8 34 53 28 5 17 15 23 21 8 17 21 30 27 33 19 21 40 40 18 30 54 41 41 71 33 30 27 41 73 49 40 36 39 47 61 19 29 26 24 11 13 19 11 19 32 26 8 27 38 24 43 27 37 30 23 13 29 10 21 10 4 21 18 11 28 45 59 33 33 27 34 20 19 25 23 11 36 40 30 18 31 42 44 35 23 27 31 35 50 14 43 40 25 37 41 37 19 27 39 28 30 50 19 5 26 30 33 29 51 43 34 35 33 41 34 19 35 36 36 30 12 5 34 29 38 19 39 36 33 20 38 10 21 26 3 31 35 22 37 34 3 17 17 34 28 33 35 29 27 23 39 32 18 28 39 49 23 35 26 27 43 10 23 19 20 23 16 29 2 25 24 28 18 2 17 18 13 19 15 20 4 10 18 16 12 16 2 19 11 28 31 14 36 20 9 17 19 19 22 8 13 30 25 31 24 18 18 28 16 25 4 13 3 22 14 18 10 15 17 21 16 34 29 17 20 16 18 11 6 18 0 12 7 7 3 4 14 8 14 15 19 24 26 30 26 21 25 19 24 34 17 15 24 19 13 22 21 38 36 10 0 2 12 8 8 10 4 16 15 20 26 26 13 5 25 32 39 34 34 51 46 31 21 38 33 31 27 39 16 39 25 34 22 28 28 28 21 19 30 25 39 39 39 38 27 18 38 24 11 18 7 23 6 31 27 20 22 11 10 3 19 12 11 15 6 11 4 5 10 10 8 11 10 16 4 0 20 15 5 12 15 10 8 6 5 9 5 5 5 5 0 7 199=N 1597=I K164 -2(26F3.0)~ 25 51 43 26 21 27 10 14 25 21 23 26 25 25 6 3 11 14 46 71 56 10 20 35 55 16 32 30 22 46 38 20 22 44 21 28 25 37 32 41 52 31 59 88 48 10 40 20 36 59 52 38 44 37 31 72 47 59 55 70 22 49 86 35 66 60 47 27 48 59 66 57 84 64 56 52 70 18 15 24 34 6 10 16 17 28 46 30 12 30 27 31 33 46 40 42 43 38 62 8 25 7 8 10 15 8 12 20 34 64 37 54 51 34 28 36 42 30 43 51 60 10 31 24 25 26 21 22 37 17 38 5 26 19 16 10 8 17 14 8 10 14 11 14 9 2 21 20 18 24 23 27 30 19 13 21 12 13 5 11 21 18 5 3 16 10 23 11 29 32 26 11 19 5 12 14 2 20 17 15 18 14 4 15 12 17 15 17 9 11 15 11 17 22 8 17 21 25 8 157=N 1611=I K102 -2(26F3.0)~ 25 36 80 41 24 88 40 5 10 19 45 12 21 46 54 76 87 48 36 88 44 76 79 80 62 65 99 62116 96 81 23 61 32 69 62 93 38 49 25 24 41 19 39 29 26 19 29 44 17 43 33 32 25 38 30 57 56 70 53 59 45 70 31 24 25 31 18 16 21 36 55 43 23 18 35 25 37 42 50 89 90 78 61 50 13 18 3 9 9 16 3 6 20 37 55 48 50 32 25 41 49 42 38 65 54 65 10 40 27 29 35 33 29 50 27 49 7 35 51 47 20 16 28 27 18 20 23 29 19 15 2 19 16 22 39 32 38 37 25 17 24 11 17 6 13 18 16 5 6 12 2 11 4 8 4 12 369=N 1622=I R021 -2(26F3.0)~ 29 25 21 44 52 23 22 31 31 35 21 21 20 29 28 33 10 30 42 45 22 39 17 36 52 32 36 38 31 14 23 19 22 28 22 14 22 26 13 26 28 14 20 14 23 63 58 59 21 44 38 31 15 16 17 13 2 12 18 0 13 30 27 16 17 30 10 35 36 31 31 31 23 31 10 21 15 0 15 17 14 17 16 18 17 20 12 22 21 15 19 12 0 20 14 16 4 11 14 11 12 8 12 11 2 25 24 44 61 44 50 57 46 20 42 57 23 46 49 30 17 54 56 54 61 59 59 80 68 42 76 42 12 21 22 26 20 20 10 33 38 29 10 38 57 51 30 43 30 30 35 25 40 78 47 61 62 8 27 46 48 45 98 69 65 44 30 89 25 28 36 86 66 12 39 15 54 58 5 18 44 54 49 20 50 7 34 33 38 36 26 18 44 23 57 15 61 45 50 88 66 69 75 24 84 31 59 74 17129 75 66 57120102 78 48 61136126 71 59 61 90 84 62 76 22 38 71119 55 53 48 63 31 73 14 52 62 42 67 69 65 51 34 88 10 32 43 62 21 58 62 28 56 45 71 83 53 54 79 50 60 37 46 47 23 42 47 51 47 28 39 66 41 23 14 4 41 35 23 27 3 28 25 45 22 33 27 10 26 40 46 37 36 46 46 37 18 32 37 39 22 44 8 42 24 48 39 60 39 42 24 37 45 48 70 73 73 78 85 34 74 44 33 36 16 55 20 59 87 92 54 33 23 20 37 31 29 43 34 54 19 33 37 33 40 36 31 32 14 13 37 39 43 29 45 9 18 32 30 44 20 34 20 58 10 61 300=N 1628=I K068 -2(26F3.0)~ 10 11 14 11 12 11 14 12 7 17 7 12 23 12 7 9 6 10 12 2 9 16 9 7 12 10 13 14 10 5 10 10 8 12 15 10 12 14 10 24 20 29 25 28 25 31 17 22 16 14 22 21 41 20 38 46 31 8 33 23 12 27 30 31 24 50 37 34 14 16 11 7 13 8 9 10 12 32 30 32 19 22 24 28 38 43 40 32 37 38 17 23 26 31 31 25 31 40 21 34 19 52 57 35 34 33 44 22 18 34 23 22 31 24 14 41 42 45 30 29 49 39 34 22 30 23 24 28 34 39 25 19 8 34 26 39 30 69 54 74 42 92 55 56 39 12 27 39 34 58 56 17 35 44 60 44 71 47 71 73 47103 55 26 34 65 61 35 47 28 53 58 27 52 42 49 48 34 46 25 53 33 56 31 15 19 29 17 19 13 15 4 9 24 17 18 21 11 24 26 23 40 11 54 34 33 58 69 58 43 48 46 93 61 69 48 55 26 54 60115 24 67 30 94 57 44 39 53 52 81 29 84 78 75 63 51 46 35 13 45 2 30 16 23 6 22 36 8 42 46 56 70 51 52 63 42 33 14 35 26 39 30 63 24 28 23 27 58106 39 13 7 43 36 22 45 14 25 31 65 17 47 63 71 58 73101 83100 85 58 34 31 58 66 87 61 75 46 355=N 1637=I D011 -2(26F3.0)~ 57 9 32 61 50 20 25 14 25 31 16 29 48 36 24 40 28 53 44 28 22 34 30 20 27 28 28 38 28 44 56 29 44 20 24 24 28 24 32 27 23 21 19 20 13 17 16 23 14 41 28 15 42 30 36 39 43 32 35 13 8 14 0 15 13 15 15 22 43 25 43 15 34 24 26 39 48 34 41 44 29 13 20 20 22 21 12 18 20 12 30 13 33 37 19 23 20 23 14 13 19 18 25 26 18 11 31 31 28 25 29 42 28 23 16 24 16 14 13 23 29 15 10 5 24 29 21 15 20 25 35 22 27 5 7 21 4 15 27 23 36 32 6 31 30 30 20 26 19 16 16 7 20 5 10 12 22 27 7 13 5 12 21 2 16 5 10 17 8 9 0 11 2 9 10 2 6 10 8 14 2 17 0 2 8 13 15 11 5 7 7 15 21 2 25 5 4 14 17 16 15 13 14 35 31 29 17 20 15 25 16 22 3 18 11 25 8 17 7 22 20 19 18 32 24 24 18 28 16 17 13 35 0 21 29 31 7 15 29 21 26 25 25 26 32 31 31 24 15 20 31 28 18 21 31 15 7 21 18 34 20 14 13 2 33 19 10 13 8 18 13 24 24 22 19 8 15 28 32 28 12 28 22 13 11 16 22 24 14 17 2 15 10 16 6 18 27 21 20 17 23 25 29 35 44 36 49 26 59 58 36 49 10 32 17 35 34 44 37 27 32 38 41 42 34 30 24 41 26 33 36 28 39 54 26 39 23 15 27 18 22 16 20 13 24 16 24 38 49 45 37 47 24 23 33 343=N 1648=I N231 -2(26F3.0)~ 10 28 36 27 37 29 81 85 51 31 46 67 22 53 58 42 48 42 67 93 73 63 27 50 44 88 36 55 45 56 18 42 61 43 11 34 17 42114 88 77 50 42 55 31 33 30 39 4 22 2 0 22 26 11 22 49 58 40 52 27 29 28 17 30 46 26 53 40 29 2 36 34 41 32 26 36 35 43 74 12 43 4 8 9 25 23 4 28 20 22 41 31 29 6 37 55 9 33 62 51 43 18 25 28 14 12 9 12 31 38 36 3 18 14 59 43 62 53 67 44 75 23 35 19 2 28 47 43 66 59 43 47 32 65 24 37 64 11 97 65 51 52 38 32 74 85 64 58 55 13 9 12 53 50 49 38 52 70 4 65 39 58 49 11 11 21 10 15 23 19 20 11 22 41 16 17 0 5 16 36 17 13 16 5 7 25 38 18 26 0 6 13 27 28 26 26 29 24 12 15 14 14 9 42 25 37 37 58 35 29 49 67 43 30 20 30 38 3 14 35 7 19 14 23 6 4 20 12 26 33 25 19 7 14 20 7 0 2 21 20 3 12 22 20 9 32 9 33 44 13 14 14 16 21 15 18 8 11 16 50 22 14 10 2 8 33 27 32 30 35 36 35 18 31 30 55 25 43 6 43 34 24 22 65 41 28 50 82 40 46 47 36 67 43 50 31 55 51 9 41 22 28 31 11 39 11 32 36 48 24 29 27 23 32 13 40 33 24 48 25 32 30 29 28 17 16 10 30 13 18 28 15 32 32 15 52 6 30 17 22 11 10 340=N 1651=I N131 -2(26F3.0)~ 30 45 15 31 28 24 14 26 36 7 27 20 15 18 16 23 25 18 8 4 15 14 30 10 11 11 25 15 20 22 18 4 8 5 2 3 3 9 3 6 9 7 10 11 13 3 4 2 1 4 4 0 2 7 4 6 18 14 11 14 12 15 19 16 28 26 16 2 23 21 32 27 24 26 33 46 60 14 66 51 37 17 39 46 22 54 41 31 51 53 42 36 54 91 29 56114113 74 38 63 77 60 39 33 20 66 79 70 48 53 36116 76102 87103 65 79 29 35 34 15 37 62 48 52 46 33 27 15 28 10 24 25 5 31 26 37 34 30 31 34 43 44 34 24 8 4 10 25 22 25 18 19 29 6 25 16 17 6 0 3 6 6 2 12 2 0 4 9 12 4 6 0 2 12 19 9 4 18 13 1 18 19 18 2 15 6 13 18 19 10 13 21 15 4 25 8 3 5 23 30 30 29 31 32 22 20 31 36 24 16 26 35 8 10 35 6 17 19 29 18 9 24 26 49 50 48 50 44 35 41 13 3 23 40 38 22 28 44 40 31 51 36 50 67 37 20 32 25 31 29 26 22 17 14 40 16 21 11 15 6 32 27 50 42 51 51 48 31 50 49 56 32 61 28 66 58 40 45 67 58 39 43 67 54 61 71 79115 83 90 62 96 61 40 60 51 39 53 31 45 30 43 39 28 43 44 39 35 27 27 33 22 20 33 14 18 16 15 16 14 5 6 18 15 18 25 24 11 21 22 40 7 22 13 12 0 16 329=N 1658=I X005 -2(26F3.0)~ 42 80 21 61 60 41 32 40 48 61 49 45 9 29 30 54 30 23 22 32 14 25 21 23 7 11 10 7 20 22 18 14 26 40 42 45 44 49 9 21 7 4 17 18 9 14 35 44 58 45 25 34 33 23 29 45 15 46 39 34 0 33 34 43 37 42 45 30 32 58 11 61 42 32 20 34 34 18 25 34 41 31 31 34 5 34 63 25 42 61 75 72 49 44 53 23 41 30 28 56 41 22 2 16 16 37 36 47 36 49 32 52 9 17 14 4 28 47 27 39 31 26 21 12 26 27 48 40 17 46 22 32 29 14 21 18 49 35 27 39 7 22 12 31 37 46 32 36 36 16 46 41 14 11 7 9 12 14 12 14 20 9 5 14 21 6 7 3 5 7 21 17 0 13 8 7 15 22 8 4 6 8 16 8 20 7 12 15 19 15 17 7 23 10 38 27 60 42 37 47 41 36 62 62 46 49 46 53 23 27 50 10 14 28 41 16 13 36 29 59 87 54 56 42 53 56 21 14 45 64 44 24 27 53 59 33 57 36 61 86 39 35 27 37 38 29 11 15 17 17 53 42 29 35 19 15 49 52 36 49 37 31 31 19 24 26 25 21 41 19 44 51 49 22 25 34 26 28 51 32 45 39 48 64 40 53 41 53 43 11 50 23 18 31 20 31 16 34 24 24 18 20 18 20 20 10 24 26 22 34 7 22 11 10 18 16 15 18 33 5 15 38 7 12 26 20 33 12 33 311=N 1684=I K005 -2(26F3.0)~ 9 5 16 21 24 35 14 31 29 26 35 37 10 11 10 7 23 12 6 13 19 26 20 28 18 35 25 21 28 39 30 63 43 40 13 35 26 32 38 47 35 49 45 64 28 54 74 71 58 57 70 50 31 66 72100 86 54 24 76 60 70 63 92100 80 63 68 93 80 67 71 59 73 54 38 64 68 58 55 48 64 83 72 54 65 28 38 27 15 37 65 32 52 32 44 31 27 28 30 47 46 41 50 29 37 59 43 30 56 67 50 52 34 26 36 18 50 34 32 35 34 60 15 55 47 27 18 9 15 21 20 21 20 21 3 12 16 29 19 27 11 22 33 30 39 8 41 16 6 25 33 21 14 29 15 30 21 36 12 15 19 16 9 15 7 28 5 44 30 22 30 26 36 40 28 84 49 33 27 35 31 16 18 36 2 15 25 30 6 9 25 13 25 36 24 36 31 27 26 19 21 16 22 11 8 17 28 22 17 31 16 59 72 29 10 21 31 33 27 27 20 22 16 39 13 33 19 20 17 31 26 32 19 35 29 25 13 24 21 32 21 39 12 28 15 29 22 24 23 31 24 33 33 29 37 35 40 33 39 28 45 33 20 40 20 32 22 30 39 17 25 18 23 13 19 23 21 26 15 24 13 2 15 8 14 11 4 17 9 4 15 23 13 18 26 22 22 15 20 25 13 25 23 25 3 33 22 21 10 23 291=N 1700=I R101 -2(26F3.0)~ 11 15 11 17 21 18 24 31 34 39 49 25 30 13 18 25 21 16 11 14 15 11 10 18 24 25 10 66 47 67 96 61 79 79 66 43 51 79 33 42 37 22 11 46 41 43 53 54 67 81 86 57 77 54 16 27 27 48 24 18 7 34 34 34 13 40 63 44 42 53 50 40 46 45 82117 70 79 86 21 46 73116 72130 85 72 54 28 91 31 41 67 97 61 17 36 22 49 63 7 22 43 71 57 22 51 8 36 37 37 30 26 23 42 24 56 16 54 46 66 91 63 64 66 23 86 42 65 67 16118 72 67 55107 98 92 53 80148106 72 49 64 76 87 69 81 21 52 47122 73 58 54 61 39 84 15 53 62 42 53 61 66 52 35 84 14 20 43 66 18 51 82 30 55 43 62 77 48 51 81 51 63 44 58 58 24 45 49 53 48 38 42 63 53 14 16 5 46 31 27 32 4 38 29 52 19 30 25 12 30 32 40 26 30 42 40 26 15 26 26 32 20 33 9 39 28 53 37 65 49 40 29 30 47 60 88 80 75 79 75 35 75 44 39 42 16 41 17 62 58 54 59 38 21 19 44 37 34 44 26 54 16 29 39 30 27 36 25 28 12 13 33 42 46 34 45 12 22 29 35 48 20 37 24 54 8 57 287=N 1705=I D007 -2(26F3.0)~ 90 62 59 42 58 54 45 48 69 68 80 64 60 37 56 44 47 44 29 28 24 30 35 20 32 37 46 45 53 58 41 40 72 63 52 54 52 28 46 41 44 53 44 49 49 37 26 31 23 19 20 27 33 30 24 27 35 33 40 19 39 35 38 27 36 34 27 25 16 28 30 22 35 25 19 21 22 23 23 29 22 34 33 19 23 8 23 27 29 32 21 21 15 15 28 10 25 21 31 36 23 21 3 17 9 6 12 8 10 11 11 10 10 18 6 9 15 16 16 2 13 23 49 37 24 6 15 14 5 25 18 18 29 14 15 22 23 21 14 17 15 19 18 26 6 8 7 9 8 7 8 11 11 15 15 17 18 22 17 16 17 14 8 16 0 22 20 16 3 8 21 14 19 17 14 16 14 11 17 11 10 11 9 10 7 8 15 11 9 11 10 18 13 8 8 11 43 27 14 21 14 24 17 34 9 14 16 10 19 26 35 31 30 43 50 48 45 44 49 50 39 44 16 28 21 25 24 31 42 34 21 30 35 40 49 48 60 52 44 37 34 40 42 50 28 55 32 38 55 46 36 39 49 41 43 42 32 25 25 31 15 19 24 18 23 29 29 24 18 12 19 15 12 13 22 5 14 17 13 21 18 23 18 18 3 14 13 283=N 1709=I D013 -2(26F3.0)~ 56 54 44 46 67 39 31 36 49 45 55 58 46 32 10 39 31 74 83 58 81102 72 82 96119 69 54 83 69 83104 63 37 86 84125 98109 92 67 73 62 76 57 40 43 53 87 66 48 22 74 76 95 62 77 66 69 36 52 38 32 37 7 18 43 42 61 51 6 41 44 54 33 55 57 88 61 36 56 37 20 39 44 67 33 37 15 28 34 12 43 42 33 60 52 66 16 42 27 19 24 10 13 21 12 16 11 23 8 14 33 30 27 21 2 27 34 31 33 4 46 24 13 23 26 24 27 16 23 30 26 21 16 22 16 25 18 20 5 16 4 12 6 14 6 16 15 17 5 24 30 29 31 44 40 37 11 41 7 22 14 16 7 14 33 23 31 27 28 29 22 22 28 21 18 8 20 17 10 13 15 13 9 15 17 32 22 13 5 2 29 14 7 14 2 16 9 20 8 6 8 8 6 9 13 12 11 17 14 13 7 8 10 13 7 10 0 10 9 14 14 16 15 13 14 13 18 25 28 30 41 35 37 16 36 29 16 25 9 19 6 17 25 24 23 14 10 5 19 22 12 11 9 17 6 14 17 11 12 13 11 21 7 6 20 18 13 9 26 2 16 17 27 28 18 22 10 23 0 20 12 212=N 1710=I M714 -2(26F3.0)~ 59 41 54 82 56 48 26 67 24 63 67 35 36 18 24 45 56 90 48 64 94 75 65 86 73 63 47 73 26 42 40 41 15 55 58 35 40 55 61 70 73 85 74 44 49 53 81115 66 23 6 18 26 20 26 54 47 71 8 45 26 43 47 12 16 28 21 47 36 43 38 33 46 28 40 27 22 34 21 27 27 19 25 33 50 28 30 31 14 36 11 32 22 22 39 40 40 0 45 43 53 32 14 32 54 33 33 35 34 11 28 29 28 27 16 5 14 37 23 30 7 22 12 5 38 41 33 35 24 25 36 31 31 15 26 23 30 21 29 12 27 18 25 27 29 27 32 40 36 24 35 35 30 13 22 22 16 5 21 7 9 16 23 15 8 24 6 16 8 14 17 10 11 13 12 11 18 16 16 7 4 13 12 9 19 11 27 19 21 8 5 9 7 10 12 7 11 7 22 11 5 3 3 6 11 11 8 6 9 8 9 4 273=N 1718=I R071 -2(26F3.0)~ 29 88132 63 34 23 29 37 45131 50 79 53 36 31 44 76 46 49 88 59 62 54 21 10 64 49 58 44 51 47 40 33 23 59 26 17 28 27 48 12 24 10 53 33 48 41107 66 57 34 87 44 71 68 29 51 58 31 51 28 0 45 35 50 40 63 56 45 63 37 73 42 15 18 52 57 21 45 32 48 62 9 28 20 34 39 20 44 10 44 25 25 23 10 24 29 10 29 16 31 11 27 39 30 25 13 4 29 19 35 44 0 55 7 7 22 23 16 18 12 21 39 22 21 14 23 17 34 38 32 12 26 12 43 14 25 11 31 29 30 6 49 40 19 25 23 21 26 8 55 4 28 22 20 17 10 32 21 51 36 41 39 52 60 43 30 26 15 36 38 27 33 48 34 12 28 43 84 48 23 0 8 50 27 25 33 12 34 34 53 19 24 33 33 40 47 48 39 31 45 31 31 27 47 51 46 19 42 11 34 24 43 29 43 39 43 15 25 30 40 45 44 46 39 55 34 65 44 34 38 15 48 15 39 38 38 39 14 17 9 26 20 24 31 38 43 17 28 39 24 26 36 28 23 10 12 38 36 30 22 46 9 21 31 15 33 27 35 21 44 16 41 259=N 1733=I D015 -2(26F3.0)~ 60 63 47 51 81 70 94 98 70 46 91 72 66 86100 94102106 90110 90 59 67 81 98 63 50 8 73 59 62 53 66 62 70 52 78 65 49 55 21 34 54 57 83 72 24 69 61 58 62 68 56 56 55 31 46 21 32 43 94102 71 69 33 48 66 20 65 56 50 49 35 44 7 27 22 16 18 11 7 18 17 22 4 16 8 16 24 23 28 18 2 20 22 34 28 4 33 17 5 18 19 26 21 11 15 27 28 31 14 20 18 28 26 27 3 28 7 28 18 14 15 21 30 41 30 53 46 44 34 36 32 32 12 35 2 33 25 27 11 20 30 24 38 45 49 61 59 51 57 36 33 22 39 30 14 21 34 29 29 32 34 43 40 26 2 17 39 27 15 23 18 26 20 29 18 24 16 7 14 22 33 24 20 36 32 25 20 28 29 31 18 24 11 22 21 21 24 27 26 31 26 31 34 39 46 51 68 64 75 48 67 39 25 42 25 50 34 48 61 36 39 31 28 22 26 21 18 25 20 32 13 26 37 25 30 24 14 20 7 4 23 12 17 13 23 6 17 18 17 29 20 23 25 26 6 19 19 258=N 1734=I D008 -2(26F3.0)~ 44 14 17 36 25 45 40 28 22 28 21 40 32 36 51 46 36 26 46 42 35 44 45 54 38 19 9 21 20 22 22 26 23 26 16 21 23 24 19 10 14 22 19 22 21 14 20 21 20 27 43 33 29 25 17 20 11 23 29 35 44 35 25 18 12 21 11 25 31 28 54 44 42 18 26 22 18 20 7 15 11 11 17 14 30 15 18 25 29 47 28 6 30 36 44 48 18 43 24 9 30 49 44 30 29 36 87 88 68 33 37 42 46 34 39 10 36 37 61 45 41 35 36 35 42 56 72 61 50 33 41 42 31 26 45 0 36 29 32 9 14 33 21 40 49 41 39 39 29 29 22 24 17 25 21 17 14 33 17 13 22 19 30 29 21 6 5 25 19 23 18 16 22 17 28 10 27 17 10 13 22 32 27 25 35 29 23 21 28 26 31 15 30 7 24 21 19 33 32 35 41 24 42 34 32 42 52 70 89 70 64 91 49 36 52 20 67 27 57 64 53 35 31 23 23 27 26 18 21 14 29 15 24 27 14 16 26 15 22 17 4 41 21 10 21 25 5 17 8 15 21 11 19 8 20 0 31 14 231=N 1760=I R031 -2(26F3.0)~ 38 55 52 62 52127 85 68 66119 98 71 55 17 44 65 49 82 85 32 70 69112 49 89 61 78 58 58 89 48 49 49 92 93 30 53 48 49 64 20 43 57 72 75 57 72 30 67 49 62 37 12 18 30 19 26 9 29 13 25 35 35 39 45 13 42 18 44 52 29 99 44 35 37 66 48 31 16 16 32 22 36 29 23 29 44 38 22 11 36 37 89 58 45 36 39 34 55 35 61 54 44 64 49 56 54 19 52 6 27 21 25 11 21 29 14 13 24 30 30 36 39 18 19 19 16 30 33 27 21 38 51 17 34 38 41 29 25 11 8 15 14 12 10 9 16 16 27 17 23 21 4 24 23 41 31 28 32 31 29 15 22 23 24 21 19 21 28 23 28 18 28 38 44 37 29 42 50 79 77 84 85 85 72 95 74 49 58 46 68 36 65 96 68 63 49 47 36 41 35 28 32 19 36 22 35 46 39 57 60 54 56 45 38 58 51 42 40 50 23 22 44 55 76 48 57 46 75 24 80 228=N 1769=I K211 -2(26F3.0)~ 57 43 31 35 11 33 49 36 94 43 30 39 27 52 50 56 38 36 30 21 41 46 60 68 52 82 32 43 22 13 25 13 37 27 38 41 44 68 10 49 27 20 15 0 11 14 10 14 11 14 0 2 13 12 16 18 0 10 13 20 13 0 7 13 0 19 13 11 3 5 8 13 8 12 9 6 7 11 4 11 0 13 7 18 24 23 28 22 23 9 30 46 36 19 20 22 15 4 11 21 0 8 6 14 0 4 16 2 13 28 7 15 17 19 18 5 8 9 20 7 2 4 20 18 10 33 11 26 31 19 10 21 14 10 7 13 8 15 8 32 14 32 12 10 7 24 17 20 22 33 26 36 24 40 22 44 28 46 18 32 21 48 29 37 28 35 20 22 21 20 26 28 40 52 25 37 61 34 39 48 32 28 25 23 34 6 19 14 24 16 22 11 29 22 30 24 18 29 39 25 35 26 30 17 13 20 17 20 18 25 21 27 31 33 18 26 3 25 21 24 2 20 25 10 2 28 12 19 214=N 1777=I N211 -2(26F3.0)~ 126130 47116 51107 49 70 73 19 62 54 77 89 78 68 64 69 56 48 48 21 18 19 38 61 59 37 52 70 22 94 64 59 34 13 6 14 22 35 63 54 45 28 49 78 48 35 13 6 16 43 65 74 70 75 32 82111 45 10 21 21 41 64 44 36 21 54 48 13 16 10 11 20 56 65 62 42 61 77 53 70108 75 52 48 57 94 14 16 70 9 38 53 44 37 34 73 39 66 69 50 43 31 26 48 16 0 8 36 24 7 14 29 20 8 32 23 23 51 26 21 25 34 41 47 45 25 26 19 60 19 7 5 2 5 14 7 18 8 18 28 30 16 23 17 38 14 58 16 55 41 23 24 65 63 34 29 31 23 40 49 35 77 52 58 21 50 36 12 38 21 24 25 6 30 33 55 86 54 41 43 40 43 28 24 46 33 32 47 23 31 27 31 27 27 19 16 25 24 50 68 27 35 47 31 66 11 34 26 38 13 24 208=N 1783=I R311 -2(26F3.0)~ 37 39 37 29 40 39 46 41 41 34 34 42 46 63 43 27 43 17 30 30 37 32 21 48 28 29 30 26 27 16 23 23 18 23 8 13 8 13 18 23 23 21 13 23 21 30 26 8 22 10 11 15 19 22 17 8 13 24 17 7 7 6 7 8 11 10 2 6 7 11 15 10 8 12 7 13 13 24 28 16 14 18 18 11 13 21 0 12 13 12 5 11 19 10 19 28 25 24 19 29 26 17 19 15 19 19 14 20 30 37 16 19 26 42 35 22 20 6 24 17 12 10 10 19 18 27 17 19 30 9 20 21 23 30 25 27 32 24 23 24 24 38 36 43 15 22 29 45 23 28 47 50 49 48 49 48 55 53 72 76 63 39 71 52 28 57 25 65 64 69 75 65 55 36 31 29 39 37 43 54 45 60 31 44 53 49 51 69 42 60 32 25 56 48 45 51 63 14 33 37 44 52 31 50 40 48 12 56 204=N 1787=I N011 -2(26F3.0)~ 60 50 45 44 63 55 70 91 56 35 22 4 6 13 21 39 31 28 39 69 20 51 31 11 12 2 2 5 5 3 7 4 6 4 10 25 17 15 2 9 12 23 18 4 12 16 6 16 33 20 6 8 17 10 14 19 29 9 18 14 6 14 9 12 10 31 23 33 15 17 29 11 21 32 35 24 11 15 30 6 13 33 6 11 13 24 17 6 24 26 50 57 41 51 42 37 48 8 0 22 33 39 32 36 57 60 34 87 32 50 64 38 18 17 22 25 35 18 9 22 16 61 36 23 11 4 12 22 21 31 47 42 39 32 16 23 28 42 24 42 19 54 62 40 25 64 42 20 39 38 42 59 63 62 74 82 72 52 69 67 35 68 30 31 42 34 70 22 52 46 46 32 20 15 19 17 13 26 24 21 30 23 30 28 26 21 20 23 7 24 18 27 43 16 20 27 20 47 8 36 20 23 11 21 144=N 1843=I X008 -2(26F3.0)~ 60 32 41 44 24 38 23 55 24 99 88155110 92112 99 55104 81 83 98109110 29 35110 15 40 74 87 42 32 84 68114118109 98 57 62 76 20 13 41 67 66 51 56 96111 80148 65117169 68 42 33 46 52 40 56 28 47 47112 81 99 53 22 49 92 85100 77 77 74 86 33 80 66 80 57 92 21 85 87 85 42 74 56 59 67 92 48 58 74 64109 84113 70 97 60 19 82 38 32 32 28 59 24 54 31 29 23 37 27 35 28 24 41 38 36 48 22 40 24 14 32 15 8 20 31 8 32 46 10 24 25 22 39 13 21 137=N 1850=I X010 -2(26F3.0)~ 8 5 8 8 11 16 36 38 30 26 53 58 45 53 44 57 20 32 91 19 17 26 24 18 13 18 14 37 73 65 85 48 51 73 25 24 46 68 78 43 57 98123 98112 60 85189 69 57 34 29 43 35 34 17 23 26 88 47 41 56 25 34 71 58 86 85 79 91100 63 91 93 66103122 45 83 82 77 43 62 52 44 77100 69 82 99 99125 72 93 75 90 62 17 75 55 60 98 65135 42 82 70 63 40 37 46 78 64 58 82127104135 88159133 96 86 48 22 38 52 28 35 67 14 54 87 62161 39 93 136=N 1855=I N-68 -2(26F3.0)~ 28 65 85 54 63 84 53 47 53 62 84 22 40 63 13 15 18 40 25 9 42 25 52 65 37 51 36 27 56 17 2 9 45 49 22 24 34 29 11 26 13 26 48 26 18 25 32 35 28 18 13 16 20 49 4 8 6 7 6 27 20 42 33 43 44 48 35 40 35 61 23 48 26 57 64 47 64 59 37 26 50 41 32 57 44 51 65 55 51 25 58 59 33 62 28 42 37 23 44 17 31 39 30 43 27 38 31 34 21 29 14 25 41 19 27 19 10 12 13 6 9 17 9 14 24 9 10 16 11 28 2 18 13 9 5 11 131=N 1860=I N081 -2(26F3.0)~ 102 69 96 79 69114 40 57142 42 40 47 44 46 26 61 47 91 85 49 90 48 35 66 14 2 15 32 41 12 18 32 19 10 27 19 15 39 30 25 24 22 41 35 36 17 16 18 50 15 10 5 3 10 22 17 27 26 38 52 42 43 41 34 54 41 55 20 56 55 32 37 52 26 20 33 43 24 34 50 36 76 33 48 31 42 39 39 45 29 51 45 36 86 28 37 65 47 34 31 28 32 40 22 29 33 24 42 19 25 25 17 21 14 17 16 20 16 14 28 18 22 21 22 40 19 32 42 36 25 34 109=N 1883=I D001 -2(26F3.0)~ 73 50 45 52 61 99 83 88131136117121123119106 25 0 26 82 76 36 44 26 61 41 74 55 54 33 26 31 46 63 62 36 77 57 41 25 71 61 67 38 35 4 39 50 52 34 59 65 51 32 50 77 86111 57 78 68 91 49103 86 47 72 17 59 34 83147129 56 64 45 45 73 67 48 46 48 51 31 68 77 79 68 54 36 50 14 9 38 30 18 24 59 2 19 10 32 61 35 39 25 37 2 42 34 67=N 1924=I N-70 -2(26F3.0)~ 30 42 51 21 42 38 25 28 40 33 41 36 51 27 30 37 53105 62 71 69107 66 36 50 30 40 35 23 48 14 45 82 76 59 71 34 42 49 30 52 37 32 45 16 24 19 14 11 22 18 10 22 17 25 59 31 36 56 53117 19 93 89 61 32 37 57=N 1934=I N-54 -2(26F3.0)~ 55 50 77 42 53 54 41 80 48 56 59 57 48 17 38 31 24 38 20 39 13 35 48 40 45 25 18 27 38 13 28 33 36 72 33 38 39 48 28 23 32 20 32 22 35 60 51 45 65 64110 35 94 73 64 34 45 ******************************************************************************** 2)RCS.crv: Regional Curve Standartization (RCS) function for the Taimyr data. Tree age growth curves = polinomial + negative exsponential function RCS-curve, mm., 09.12.1998 800=N 1=I RCS-crv -2(26F3.0)~ 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 29 30 31 31 32 33 33 34 34 35 35 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 40 41 41 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 42 42 42 42 41 41 41 41 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 38 38 38 38 37 37 37 37 36 36 36 35 35 35 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 1795. 1998-12-11 11:22:06 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 11 Dec 1998 11:22:06 +0000 from: John Shepherd subject: Multi-millennial ESM to: gjjenkins@meto.gov.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Message also sent to : modellers, sci div heads, centre/survey directors, a.watson, bill, j.gould, m.fasham, p.liss, p.williamson, r.dickson, t.tyrrell, tom anderson, j.gash Dear Colleague Herewith as body text and as a Word 6 attachment an updated version of an outline proposal (which some of you have seen before) for a project which I am planning to develop. I think it's pretty much self-explanatory. I hope to convene a workshop to kick the idea around early in the New Year, with a view to submitting a full proposal in summer 1999... All expressions of interest, comments and suggestions are invited. With best wishes John ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------- Third Draft Straw-man Proposal for a NERC Cross-Board Initiative Consortium Project Multimillennial Models of the Earth Climate System A) Aims 1) To build an integrated model of the Earth's climate system, including the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and biosphere, capable of integration for about one million years. 2) To test its ability to reproduce natural variations of Earth climate through several major glacial/interglacial cycles. 3) To improve the model to the point where it has significant predictive utility in assessing the combined effects of natural and man-made climate forcing. B) Background and Rationale We cannot be confident of any long-term predictions of climate change because we do not yet understand Earth's climate system : in particular the glacial/interglacial cycles which sometime occur. These are believed to be due to an enhanced response (positive feedback) of the atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere/biosphere coupled system to weak solar forcing (Milankovitch cycles), but a full explanation is lacking. It is difficult to evaluate proposed mechanisms quantitatively, because integrated dynamic models of the complete system are not generally available. The most fully developed model is possibly that of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research, which is planned to embrace social and economic factors too (which may be extremely difficult to do well). [note: the status of other integrated models needs to be checked] It is suggested that the scientific community in the UK is uniquely well placed to create an integrated model of the Earth Climate system, drawing on expertise from NERC Centres & Surveys, the Hadley Centre, and other supported groups. Since we do not believe that we yet understand the system, the model would be exploratory rather than predictive, at the outset, and involve a high risk of failing to simulate the natural system for some time. Nevertheless, use of such models is a necessary part of developing our understanding and evaluating the credibility and magnitude of proposed mechanisms, and the failures should be instructive. Testing and validation will require comparison with palaeodata on temperature, ocean circulation, productivity, etc. This may probably best be done by attempting to simulate the occurrence (or not) of ice-ages as a function of solar forcing, and continental and oceanic configurations, for which data exist in the geological record. C) Method & Model Structure The model will need to incorporate suitable representations of the oceans, the atmosphere, the cryosphere (ice-caps and sea-ice), the biosphere (marine and terrestrial) and certain aspects of the lithosphere (variable continental configurations, erosion and calcium run-off, at least). At present GCM-based integrated climate models such as those of the Hadley Centre are just capable of integration for about one millennium. To permit multiple realisations of integrations one thousand times longer will require extremely simplified representations of most components of the system, with very carefully selected parameterisations of many important processes (e.g. clouds, deep water formation, and atmospheric transport). The longest times scales involved are those for ice-sheet dynamics and ocean chemistry (the calcium/carbonate system), and these will need to be represented with most detail and realism. Other aspects may be modelled using highly simplified (and possibly transient equilibrium) representations. Modest geographical resolution will be required to enable latitudinal gradients (important for ice dynamics) and continental configurations, which are important in determining oceanic heat transport, to be represented. The model parameterisations should be derived from theoretical considerations, and calibrated using comparison with field data and/or the results of more detailed models of subsystems, run for shorter time periods, such as those of the Hadley Centre and those to be developed under the Prescient Programme. The model should almost certainly be modular, to enable alternative representations of subsystems to be incorporated, evaluated and compared easily. Careful attention to the definition and implementation of interface schemes will therefore be required. Such a structure will also permit and facilitate involvement of a broad (and probably distributed) community in the project. However, since the goal is the creation of an integrated tool, the project needs to be a rather highly integrated and managed effort - a consortium project rather than a conventional thematic programme. It would therefore be similar to the early phase of the UGAMP programme (now designated as core-strategic). A tentative outline of a possible structure and scope of the model for each major subsystem is given below. The initial spatial resolution might be of the order of 10 deg latitude by 30 deg longitude, with (say) 5 levels in both the atmosphere and the ocean. Atmosphere A global spatially resolved radiative/convective or energy balance model (?), including parameterised representations of meridional heat (and water) transport, the effects of water vapour and green-house gases on transmission, emissivity and radiation balance, and exchanges with the land, oceans, and cryosphere, including precipitation and evaporation. Ocean Multiple meridional-vertical representations (two or three per ocean, linked via the Southern Ocean (i.e. similar to that of Stocker (1997)). CO2/carbonate/calcium chemistry, including calcite formation/dissolution, needs to be incorporated, as do biological production, organic & inorganic carbon burial, and interchanges with the atmosphere and cryosphere. Parameterisation of deep-water formation (and therefore the meridional circulation) will be a crucial feature (to be derived from process models?). Cryosphere A model of the thickness and latitudinal extent of sea-ice and ice-sheets, and their dynamics, accounting for the presence/absence of land, will be needed. This module will be closest to the state-of-the-art representations in this field. Effects on sea-level and ocean temperature and salinity must be included because of possible transient (?) effects on ocean circulation. Biosphere (a) Terrestrial : to be determined : a simple (transient-equilibrium?) representation of biomass and its growth/decay for latitudinal zones on each continent (or a coarse subdivision thereof) may be adequate. Effects on albedo and interaction with the hydrosphere should be included (as simple parameterisations) (b) Marine A simple (NPZD?) representation of marine production needs to be incorporated and linked to the carbonate chemistry, to represent the carbon cycle and the interactions with atmospheric CO2, so that both natural and anthropogenic effects of CO2 variation can be assessed. Hydrosphere [to be inserted (CEH)] Lithosphere A static (but variable) representation of continental configuration (and elevation ?) and ocean bathymetry should be adequate. Variable effects of precipitation on erosion and Calcium dissolution need to be included to close the Calcium/Carbonate/sediment accumulation cycle. NB: The acquisition of suitable palaeo-data from the geological record is a vital part of the overall project, but not part of the model construction per se. Overall In all of the above modules, it should (so far as possible) be possible to switch key processes on and off, in order that (numerous) alternative simulations can be run to determine the relative importance of each process.. The model needs to be capable of running for several hundred thousand years at least, for each of a large number of scenarios. With the degree of spatial resolution outlined above, there would be around one thousand grid points in the atmosphere and the ocean, compared to several million in GCM-based climate models. Great care will be needed to parameterise sub-grid scale processes adequately, and this represents a major challenge. It is not clear whether or not seasonal processes will need to be represented explicitly. If they do, then time-steps of less than one year will be needed, and computational speed is likely to be a serious limiting factor. If they can be parameterised effectively, much longer time-steps mat be achievable, allowing considerable elaboration of other aspects of the model. D) Resources It is suggested that the model should be highly modular, (possibly with a NERC Centre/Survey or University group taking lead responsibility for each module). As a first guess, it should be possible for prototypes of each module to be constructed by a few people (mostly post-docs or equivalent) working for a few years. The scale of the initial development project, including a synthesis and interface teams, co-ordination and project management and hardware (workstations, etc.) is therefore of the order of Ł1M per annum for (say) 5 years. Access to supercomputer facilties may also be required during the later stages, especially for sensitivity testing, estimation of confidence limits, etc. It is possible that some external funding (or at least co-funding) might be secured (DoE ?). The project does not easily fit into any of the categories of NERC's present Funding Model. If successful, it should probably evolve in due course into a joint collaborative core-strategic programme between the Centres/Surveys and the other institutions involved. These would include SOC, BAS, CEH, CCMS, BGS, UEA, UGAMP/CGAM (Reading) and the Hadley Centre. The development work can be carried out in a distributed but highly co-ordinated manner, and may probably thus best be treated as a "consortium" project, rather than a thematic programme. A core team (including probably the synthesis and interfacing teams) will be required at one location, and the possibility of secondments and joint appointments of staff at other sites should be considered as a possible mode of operation. The people involved would all require good mathematical/computational skills, and appropriate appointments might therefore be to fellowships similar to those available under the existing conversion scheme for physicists and mathematicians. John Shepherd Southampton Oceanography Centre 10 December 1998 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Mmesm.doc" 1915. 1998-12-18 14:40:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 18 Dec 1998 14:40:10 +0000 from: Sari Kovats subject: EU Short Course: dates for meeting to: p.martens@icis.unimaas.nl, a.haines@ucl.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, elisa@system.ecology.su.se, t.mcmichael@lshtm.ac.uk Dear Committee, I am pleased to announce that the EU have confirmed that they will fund our short course with the revised budget. We hope to produce the leaflet early next year - Please publicise the course where possible. I will send you a summary of the course details as soon as I can confirm the deadline for applications from the EU. We are scheduled to have a course committee meeting sometime in February. Therefore, please could you send me some details about your availability and I will try and confirm a date as soon as possible. Best wishes for Christmas and the New Year Sari ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sari Kovats Research Fellow Epidemiology Unit Department of Epidemiology & Population Health London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Keppel St London WC1E 7HT UK Tel: +44 (0)171 927 2078 Fax: +44 (0)171 580 6897 email: s.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 2181. 1998-12-21 10:27:35 ______________________________________________________ cc: sari.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk date: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 10:27:35 GMT from: Graham Bentham subject: Re: Jan 15 mtg: summary proposal in advance? to: "t.mcmichael" Tony, Yes I am happy to take the lead on 1 and 6. I'll be in touch with Sari about 1 early in the New Year. I am due to see Brian Diffey at a DETR meeting in January so I will ask him about whether he wants to be involved then: in the meantime I will sort out my own thoughts on the study design. The "new thoughts" that Mike Hulme and I have come up with are really mostly tactical to try to try to shape at least a couple of proposals so that they could be seen to be NERC-led and therefore hopefully attractive enough for them to put up some money. The suggestion is to have one on climate change and air pollution (I will liaise with Peter Brimblecombe and Steve Dorling at UEA on this). The other would be something that Mike and CRU could take a lead on and this would focus on extreme events (I guess this would include bits of number 3 and 4, so we will have to sort out the question of overlap at the meeting). Have a nice Christmas, Graham Professor Graham Bentham Director, Centre for Environmental Risk School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, England Telephone 01603 592561 Fax: 01603 507719 e-mail: g.bentham@uea.ac.uk 1065. 1998-12-21 16:35:29 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 16:35:29 -0700 from: "Mann, Margaret" subject: RE: GWPs to: 'Mike Hulme' Mike, Thanks for your help. Yes, I'd be interested in having you fax me the tables, but I'm more interested in getting a hold of the original report. I couldn't find the one you mentioned on the IPCC web site. Can you give me some guidance? My fax number is 303-275-2905. Thanks and Happy Holidays! Maggie > -----Original Message----- > From: Mike Hulme [SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: Friday, December 18, 1998 7:45 AM > To: margaret_mann > Subject: GWPs > > Margaret, > > Your request was forwarded by Michael Lautenschlager ........ > > We are not responsible on the IPCC DDC for determining GWPs. All I can do > is point you to Tables 2.8 and 2.9 in the 1996 IPCC Second Assessment > Report volume on the science of climate change, published by Cambridge > Univ. Press. These Tables have IPCC's latest word on the matter. > > If you do not have this publication I can fax you the tables if you give > me > your fax number. > > Regards, > > Mike > > > ************************************************************************** > *** > Dr Mike Hulme > Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162 > Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 > School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > University of East Anglia web site: > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ > Norwich NR4 7TJ > ************************************************************************** > *** > Mean temp. in Central England during 1998 is running > at about +0.9 deg C above the 1961-90 average > *************************************************** > The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly estimate for 1998 > is for +0.58 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet > recorded > ************************************************************************** > *** 2761. 1998-12-29 15:54:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 29 Dec 1998 15:54:09 -0500 from: sdecotii@ncdc.noaa.gov subject: IPCC Chapter 2 Outline and Letter for Contributors to: pgroisma@ncdc.noaa.gov, drobins@gandalf.rutgers.edu, serreze@kryos.colorado.edu, jmagnuson@macc.wisc.edu, tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, gruza@omvpk.msk.su, raino.heino@fmi.fi, pf@dmi.min.dk, Phil.Arkin@noaa.gov, rheim@ncdc.noaa.gov, Richard_Armstrong@nocc.gov, j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz, William.Hogg@ec.gc.ca, Frank.H.Quinn@noaa.gov, robock@envsci.rutgers.edu, swwang@pku.edu.cn, laban.ogallo@meteo.go.ke, mechoso@cloud.atmos.ucla.edu, adai@cgd.ucar.edu, d9k@d9k.esd.ornl.gov, conway@atmos.washington.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k-kunkel@uiuc.edu, deparker@meto.gov.uk, n.plummer@bom.gov.au, fzwiers@ec.gc.ca, ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, rquayle@ncdc.noaa.gov, robert.balling@asu.edu, landsea@aoml.noaa.gov, nnn@bom.gov.au, trenbert@ra.cgd.ucar.EDU, rdrosen@aer.com, gibm0978@info.iuol.cn.net, James.Angell@noaa.gov, sen@met.fsu.edu, mlal@cas.iitd.ernet.in, brazdil@porthos.geogr.muni.cz (See attached file: Ipcclead_prelim.doc)(See attached file: Paris4.doc) December 24, 1998 Dear Invited Contributor: This note is to formally request a contribution from you as a Contributor to the IPCC Third Assessment Report. In particular, we are soliciting your input to Chapter 2 of the report AObserved Variations and Changes in Climate@. A draft topic sentence outline for the content of the chapter, along with a list of Convening Lead Authors (CLA), Lead Authors (LA) and review Editors (RE) is given for your information at the end of this letter. Please see the enclosed outline for the areas we thought you could best contribute, but if there are additional areas you would like to contribute to, please provide the material to me and I will forward it to the appropriate Lead Author. Essentially, the fundamental purpose of the Chapter is to assess research on obtaining information about changes and variations of the climate based on observed and proxy records. Please consult a copy of the 1995 IPCC chapter for guidance on general content and style, though we are, of course, intending to put major new emphases on the recent issues that have arisen. You should also bear in mind the relevence of any material to the climate change detection issue. Although most of the material directly relevant to that chapter (Chapter 12) will go directly to those Lead Authors, do not hesitate to draw attention to material within your terms of reference that might be relevant in either that or our chapter. At this time, we are looking for short text contributions (1 to 3 pages) for each section where your name appears. In addition, we are requesting diagrams or figures you think are appropriate. If these can be provided in electronic form, that would be a benefit. Please discuss this with your lead author but POSTSCRIPT or embedded WORD97 diagrams are preferred in many cases. It is especially important that you write to the style of previous IPCC reports and you include references to work cited. As many of you know, it is extremely unlikely that your text will be preserved in the final draft, but we have found that almost without exception that the topics addressed in invited contributions have found their way into the final report. We need to have your contribution by February 20 to meet the schedule listed below: February 20, 1999 B> Assemble Draft Minus 1 for review at the Asheville Meeting March 8-12, 1999B> Asheville Lead Author and Contributor Review Meeting (Contributors attend at their discretion) May 14, 1999 --> Zero order draft for informal review within the IPCC October 1, 1999 --> First draft for official Expert Review March 24, 2000 --> Second draft for official Government Review September 29, 2000 --> Third Draft addressing all review comments January 2001 --> Last plenary in which the TAR is finalized However, we recognize that this timetable may be insufficient for all your material. Please advise your requesting lead author of material you wish to submit a little later. Other key dates include material presented by your lead author at the Asheville meeting (March 8-12) and delivery by early April for inclusion in the zero order draft. We point out that inclusion in the Chapter of the material you send to us is not guaranteed. It is up to the CLAs and LAs to evaluate the appropriateness of including your material in the Chapter. The Chapter will only include material produced subsequent to the publication of the 1995 WGI SAR report, unless it is relevant to ongoing controversies, or material that for whatever reason was not included in the SAR, but that it is relevant for the TAR. Therefore, please do not send all of your research products, but only recent (i.e. post 1995) and relevant ones (based on the points above and the Chapter outline. Please be concise and focused with the material you send. In particular, state clearly if you want to convey a specific message. The information you send should be available in the published literature papers, books, reports, proceedings etc., not necessarily in English, be part of a database that has been peer-reviewed and is available for analysis or at least be part of a submitted paper or report (and thus available in preprint format) by the time of the various deadlines. Following IPCC rules also "unpublished reports in the public domain" are eligible for inclusion/reference. Although the basic structure of the Chapter is not cast in stone at this time, we will likely not modify it substantially unless there was a very compelling reason. This basic Chapter structure has already been accepted by the IPCC Plenary. We have organized our chapter and the handling of submitted contributions in the following way: We formed sub-groups of LAs and Key Contributors in charge of producing a first draft of each section of the Chapter. If we have not tagged you in the appropriate section, we ask that you identify the section of the Chapter you feel your contribution is most relevant for and send your contribution to the LAs in charge of that section or the Key Contributor who will forward it on to the appropriate LA. Please, do not send material to all of us or only to the Chapter CLAs. The contribution can be in the form of written summary statements, figures and tables (possibly with comments on them), pre- and re-prints of papers and other published material. Electronic mail, fax or hard copies are ok. If you have any question you can reach me by e-mail, fax or phone as noted above. Thanks again for your help. Please let us know if you cannot meet the February 20 deadline. Based on this set of deadlines, it is evident that the scheduling for the production of the Chapter is extremely tight, so that we need to receive contributions AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, noting the statement made under the timetable above. In particular, the most relevant deadline is that of the first draft, because this is the first one going out for official external review. Likely, the basic content of the Chapter will highly resemble that of the first draft. Therefore, we stress the importance of sending us material early that can be updated relatively easily until the first full draft of October 1, 1999 (which means realistically by MID SEPTEMBER 1999), even better for the 0 order draft of May 14, 1999. Also, again following IPCC rules, material can still be cited anytime up to the 2nd draft stage (February-March 2000) for late-breaking papers/reports. Also, we ask you to please circulate this solicitation for contribution to colleagues that are not included in the above email list and that you think should (please also let us know their email address so we can include them in the list for future communications). If you have any question on the Chapter, you can address them at the following email addresses: tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov or cfolland@meto.gov.uk With the best regards of all the authors of Chapter Chapter 2 authors: CLA: C. Folland (UK) E-Mail: cfolland@meto.gov.uk T. Karl (USA) E-Mail: tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov LA: S. Wang (China) E-Mail: swwang@pku.edu.cn J. Christy (USA) E-Mail: christy@atmos.uah.edu J. Jouzel (France) E-Mail: jouzel@obelix.saclay.cea.fr A. Clarke (Canada) E-Mail: clarke@eos.ubc.ca J. Oerlemans (Netherlands) E-Mail: j.oerlmans@fys.ruu.nl M. Mann (USA) E-Mail: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu (normal) memann@titan.oit.umass.edu (attachments) G. Gruza (Russian Federation) E-Mail: climate@cabel.net M. Salinger (New Zealand) E-Mail:j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz RE: B. Nyenzi (Tanzania) E-Mail: bnyenzi@nyenzi.com R. Hallgren (USA) E.Mail: hallgren@dc.ametsoc.org Sincerely, Chris Folland Tom Karl . Co-Convening Lead Authors 10 Chapter 2 Outline and Assigned Areas of Primary Responsibility 1 The overall length of Chapter 2 should be about 35 two-column pages including figures. In the outline below contributions are identified along with topic sentence issues related to the contribution from each contributor. Those authors with an asterisk beside their name are responsible for developing first draft all material until the next author with an asterisk appears in the outline. 2 Introduction — Folland* and Karl to describe the motivation for Chapter 2, primary issues, and how uncertainty is addressed 2.1 Summary of IPCC 1995 ---- Folland and Karl* to describe the highlights of IPCC 1995 and provide information to the reader regarding areas of particular note for this report as related to major advances in our knowledge about climate variations and changes within the IPCC 2000 report. Put in context of key controversies. 2.2 How much is the world warming? 2.2.1 Background ---- Karl to discuss the variety of thermal indicators available and why we look at so many different measures of temperature change. 2.2.2 Surface temperature ---- Karl to describe primary issues affecting our confidence in documenting changes of temperature in the instrumental record on global, regional and local space scales. We will be calculating various trends and smoothing methods, so please send data described below to tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov. 2.2.2.1 Land surface air temperature Folland */Jones/Peterson/Gruza/Hansen to provide update of worldwide surface land temperature change and description of data trends and improvements since 1995 IPCC report. Four data sets will be used (Hansen, Jones, Peterson, and Gruza/Laguina to update Vinnikov/Groisman data set). Please include NH, SH and Globe. Please provide annual and monthly values to Tom Peterson for plotting and trend calculation. If possible provide data on 5x5 grid for each year/month value for the following data sets: GHCN and Jones (East Anlglia data). Easterling to provide write-up on updated trends for max/min/dtr. These data should be provided on a 5x5 grid (Annual). Cloud amounts could be plotted on the same time series graph (see Dai analysis) ---- Easterling -- Coordinate with Groisman, Kaiser and Dai to obtain national cloud cover data sets. 2.2.2.2 Sea surface and ocean surface air temperature. 2.2.1.1 Folland/Parker/Reynolds/Quayle to update worldwide NH, SH, and global SSTs with accompanying diagrams including recent modeling results with fixed SSTs with and without bucket corrections. Please include a description of observed changes. Reynolds/Quayle to provide data subsequent to bucket corrections, e.g., satellite era. Provide annual and year-month values to David Parker for plotting and trend calculations for NH, SH, and Globe. For Folland/Parker provide 5x5 gridded data. Also Folland and Parker will provide plots of SST and nighttime marine air temperatures on an annual basis for Globe. 2.2.1.1 Land and sea combined Folland/Parker/Jones/Peterson/ Quayle. Folland will provide write-up describing results of combined data of the NH, SH and Globe which will include both circle plots reflecting trends at 5x5 grid cells as well as isopleth values depicting trends since the turn of the Century. This will be in addition to the time series plots of NH, SH, and Globe. 2.2.1.2 Are the surface temperature trends consistent? Folland and Parker to produce a description of the consistency among different data sets and land and ocean temperatures. We will also show here the trends of temperature for different periods (winter & summer) for the periods 1910-1945, 1946-1975, and 1976-present. These will be shown either in circle representation (5x5 grid cells) or in isopleth form. We have also been requested to produce the following time series on an annual basis for temps: NH-SH, Zonal 10-30N - 50-70N, Tland - Tocean, Twinter-Tsummer averaged for both hemispheres 1.1.1 2.2.2 Tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures — Christy*/Hurrell/ Parker/Santer/Palmer/Changery/Eskridge/Brown/Stendel/Angell/ Sterin/Gaffen/Ramaswamy. Zonal mean Temps T 700mb - T 100mb using radiosonde data. John Christy will lead this section. It will include a discussion of the observed changes of radiosonde and MSU temperatures as well as a discussion of these same trends from the NCEP re-analysis. Christy will provide an illustration depicting the trends of temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere using various data sets. Discussion should include the likelihood that the trends can change sign from the surface to the stratosphere as observed based on model simulations as well as physical arguments. CARDS data as well as the Parker data sets should be used. 2.2.21 Tropospheric trends Zonal plots are requested for the zones 20S to 20N and 20N and 60N. Discussion of radiosonde errors and error related to orbital drift, orbital decay, and calibration of instruments need to be considered. 2.2.2.2 Lower stratospheric trends ---- Alex Sterin should be contacted and the Ozone Assessment for 1998 should be considered (Ramanathan had the lead in the ozone assessment for this part of the report). 2.2.2.3 Are tropospheric and surface trends consistent? See notes in 2.2.3. 1.1.2 Volcanic and solar effects in the recent temperature record — Rind/Folland*/Haigue/Leen to discuss the effect of solar and volcanic forcing in the observed temperature record and the proxy record. — This section may be moved to the proxy records section. 2.2.3 Retreat of the glaciers — Oerlemans* to discuss both mass balance data and glacier length data as related to temperature.. Illustration required converting glacier length deviations to temperature based on modeling information. 1.1.1 2.2.4 Trends in snow cover extent and lake ice Karl*/Groisman/Robinson/Serreze/Magnuson. Provide updated figure of snow cover extent with co-plotted temperature data. Consider additional time series plots as related to snow cover from in-situ data. Discuss uncertainties in the data. Error due to gridding and method of observing and data processing. An update of the satellite N.H. snow cover extent data set is required (co-plotted with temperatures) for each season. Temperature should be within the snow covered areas. 2.2.5 Are the retreat of glaciers, lake ice records, and trends in snow cover consistent with surface temperature trends. Karl* 2.2.6 Sea ice and thickness — Clarke* /Walsh/Rayner. Provide time series of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice with discussion of data uncertainties and observed changes. Please to the extent possible discuss the physical factors governing sea ice extent to help interpret any changes in the time series. 2.2.7 Subsurface ocean temperatures — Clarke/Levitus/White/Philander Subsurface Ocean Temperature—A. Clarke will lead this session. Contribution will include Warren White, George Philander, and Syd Levitus but others are certain to be relevant. Issues to be addressed include changes in upper ocean temperature/salinity, to the dynamics related to changes in the N. Atlantic during the 1990s e.g., temperature and salinity as related to circulation, such as the NAO, and deep water temperature change that may be related to global surface temperature change points, e.g., 1945, 1977. Include Pacific Ocean where possible e.g, North Pacific gyre, inter-decadal tropical Pacific changes. This section may need interaction by the Lead Author with the Processes Chapter at an early stage. 2.2.8 All lead authors lead by Karl* (summary of 2.2) 2.3 Is the recent warming unusual? 2.3.1 Background — Mann*/Jouzel— Emphasize outstanding issues from the 1995 report and new areas of info since then, plus emphasize why this section is important. 2.3.2 Climate of the past 1000 years Mann will lead with Jones/Jouzel/Salinger. Emphasis will be on proxy, historical and borehole data that have been used to identify interannual and decadal temperature (N. Hemisphere or global) anomalies back to the so-called “Mediaeval Warm Period”. Discussion will emphasis uncertainties in reconstruction and compare the 1990s and the temperature increase of the 20th Century with the recent Millennium. Moisture related indicators should not be ignored. 2.3.2.1 Proxy Climate Indicators This section will focus on proxy indicators including tree ring data. Contributions from Overpeck, Fisher, J. Cole, Briffa, Barnett, Cook, and Bradley will be solicited. Assessment of uncertainties with respect to calibration differences between observed and proxy data as well as the effects in incomplete spatial coverage should be discussed. A figure showing best estimate and 95% confidence of temp back to 1000 AD is desirable. 2.3.2.2 Historical Documentary Evidence Section lead by Wang*/Salinger with contribution from Bradley, Diaz/Wang, Pfister, and Selivanov. New information on the warming trend in the Tibetan Plateau during the 20th Century should be discussed as well as other historical data. Historical documents from China and other parts of the world should be discussed as they relate to confirm and contradict present thinking about temperature change of the past 1000 years. 2.3.2.3 Borehole Measurements Section lead by Mann* with contribution from Pollock. This section should focus on recent efforts to develop a worldwide network of borehole measurements. Again uncertainties with respect to incomplete coverage and analysis methods should be discussed. A figure of borehole worldwide temps back to at least 1500 is desirable. 2.3.2.4 Multi-Proxy Synthesis Mann will lead this section. Emphasis will be on whether the proxy data builds a consistent picture of change. A figure showing both Borehole and Proxy temperature changes is desirable. 2.3.2.5 Glacier Length Records Oelermans* will lead with contr ibutions sought from Haeberli and Fitzharris. Rowden-Rich (Tasmania) has offered to contribute. Both observed glacier length and model data will be used to build a picture of multi-century temperature change. If possible, at least 1 figure should be produced to show the relation between temperature and glacial length. 2.3.2.6 Was there a Little Ice Age and a Mediaeval Warm Spell Mann* and Jones to lead. Discussion should answer the question posed in context with data from 2.3.2.1 to 2.3.2.5. 2.3.3. Summary of 2.3.2 Led by Folland* 2.4 2.4 How rapidly did climate change in the distant past? 2.4.1 Background Jouzel* will lead and emphasize data used to answer question above. Some discussion on why we can use just a few ice cores to discern changes of global climate in the distant past. 2.4.2 How stable was the Holocene climate? Jouzel to lead. Stability of the climate will be discussed as related to the 20th Century warming. Lake sediments, ice cores, deep sea sediments will all be referenced to provide a comprehensive picture. A figure showing temperature changes is desirable. How much warmer than now was the Holocene maximum? 2.4.3 How fast did climate change during the glacial period? Jouzel with contributions from Thompson (shallow ice cores) lakes (Overpeck), Magnuson (deep ice cores). Jouzel will also address ocean sediment data to discuss improved information about multiple episodes of almost global extent of “rapid climate change” since the last IPCC assessment. 2.4.4 How stable was the previous inter-glacial? Jouzel to lead. Primary question here is whether the earth has warmed by more than 0.6 EC during any Century since the previous inter-glacial. Has it warmed by more than 1-3EC (likely prediction for next Century). 2.4.5 Summary of 2.4 -- All lead authors lead by Jouzel 2.5 How have precipitation and atmospheric moisture changed? 2.5.1 Background Karl* will discuss uncertainties in precipitation and moisture measurements, and the need to intercompare observations from a variety of observing systems as well as their spatial continuity. Difficulties of high lat. and ocean precip measurements also discussed. Mention new “integrated” global precip data sets. 2.5.2 Trends in precipitation 2.5.2.1 Karl will lead with contributions from Groisman/Peterson/Hulme and Gruza. Precipitation changes will be identified in global maps (circle) as in 1995 report for 20th Century and during periods of change points 1900-45, 45-76 and 77-98 similar to temperature change points. These will be annual values as well as a cold and warm season. Projection of figure will be based on time series zonal plots and global maps with trend magnitude depicted by circles. Issues to resolve include precip in high latitudes, especially Russia . GHCN and Hulme combined data sets will be used, but national data from Russia (USSR) will take precedence to resolve apparent discrepancy with National Data Sets. Heino and Frich will contribute regional information (data to GHCN/Hulme data set as appropriate). Razuvaev will be contacted for Russian precip data . 2.5.2.2 Ocean Primary contributors include Arkin and Xie as related to the GPCP dataset. Primary issue relates to whether we have any information about large scale changes in ocean precip we can trust. Related data includes OLR and High reflectivity Data Sets as discussed in IPCC 1995. Arkin again is the primary information source. 2.5.2.3 Simultaneous changes of temp and precip Karl will discuss the trends (spatially and zonally) of temperature and precipitation changes for various periods of consistent global temperature change (1900-45, 45-76, and 77-98) for both the cold and warm season. 2.5.3 Snowfall Karl/Groisman/Robinson/Heim/ Lal/Armstrong will be the primary contributors. Snowfall information and snow depth from longer term in-situ data should also be incorporated as these data now span large areas of the NH (Robinson) key contact for N.A., Armstrong, USSR, Gruza/Razuvaev USSR also; Wang/Li for PRC. Lake Ice contribution John Magnusson (Univ of Wisconsin). 2.5.4 Land-surface and subsurface water 2.5.4.1 Streamflow Karl with lead with contributions from Salinger, Lins, Shiklomanov, and Georgievsky. South American data to include recent work appearing in J. Climate. Main issue is whether streamflow and precip trends are consistent. Other contributors include Lattenmeir (USA) and Salinger for S.H. information. Hogg to contribute info on Canadian Streamflow. Salinger will work with WMO Hydro group. S.A. information from Jose Marengo INPE. 2.5.4.2 Lake Levels Karl will lead with Vuglinsky as a contributor along with Nicholson and Street-Pernot to provide any update from 1995 report on lake levels. Quinn to update US Great Lakes and Hogg Canadian Lake levels. An update of the Caspian Sea level will be presented by Vuglinsky/Skiklomanov/Georgivsky. Salinger will work with WMO to obtain new data for S.H. 2.5.4.3 Soil moisture Robock/Speranskaya will be asked to provide updates of soil moisture over Russia and Wang/Robock over China. Key issue is whether soil moisture is consistent with related work. 2.5.5 Evaporation 2.5.5.1 Land Update of pan evaporation data over USA; Peterson; Update of Russian data Golevbev; Salinger to identify and develop S.H. pan evaporation data; Wang to focus on China Pan Evap data and Lal data and trends from India. Frich to focus on European pan evap data. Ogallo, African data and for S.A., Mechoso. 2.5.5.2 Ocean Allen Clarke* will lead this section. Primary issue will be to discuss trends of Evap and their affect on ocean circulation as well as trends of Evap over the ocean tropics in particular. Is there any new material since IPCC 1995? 2.5.6 Water Vapor Folland* with Parker will develop this contribution; new analyses from Zhai and Eskridge. CARDS data (Eskridge) Elliott and Gaffen for Euresia and North America. 2.5.6.1Surface water vapor SSM/I data and analyses by Gaffen may hold promise for new data. Christy will provide SSM/I analyses. Prospects of major new analyses of global water vapor at the surface?. 2.5.6.2 Tropospheric water vapor See notes in 2.5.6; Rob Allen could contribute w/r to his analysis of changes in global sea level pressure. 2.5.7 Clouds Karl* to lead with (Dai/Kaiser over land) 2.5.7.1 Land — New analyses by Dai and Kaiser over the land area should be included. 2.5.7.2 Ocean — New research by Bajuk/Leovy should be discussed; Bajuk will be asked to develop a 1-page contribution updating his recent paper. 2.5.8 Summary of 2.5 All lead authors led by Karl 2.6 Are the atmospheric/oceanic circulations changing? 2.6.1Background, including new evidence for natural decadal variability, Folland* to lead, with substantial support from Hurrell. 2.6.2 El Nino/Southern Oscillation Clarke, Folland, Salinger with input from K. Wolter, Livezey, Goddard and Graham. Emphasis to include a variety of ways to categorize ENSO/El Nino/La Nina and what they tell us, e.g, sea level, clouds, etc. This should also include quantitative information on subsurface temperature and salinity. SST analysis by Kaplan should also be considered. Time Series plans of ENSO should be developed and the question of changes in frequency/intensity, and contribution to global warmth of 1997/1998 addressed. 2.6.3 NAO, PNA AO, PDO, monsoonal indices and the COWL Folland with Hurrell, Wallace, Clarke, Wang, and Livezey. Information should include time series plots of important indices and a discussion regarding why these indices are useful measures of variability and how they affect our understanding of climate change. 2.6.4 Northern hemisphere circulation Gruza, Trenberth, Kingste Mo, and Livezey. Results from reanalysis should be discussed as related to changes in circulation. Can also include important large-scale changes as they would affect storms, precipitation, and other climate elements. 2.6.5 Southern hemisphere circulation Salinger to lead with contributions from Rob Allen, Neville Nicholls, and Warren White. Information should include circulation indices (including Austral-Asian Monsoon) and the Antarctic circumpolo-circulation both ocean and atmosphere. The South Pacific Convergence Zone and its relation to the understanding of climate variability/change 2.6.6 Summary of Section 2.6 ---- All Lead Authors lead by Folland 2.7 Has climate variability or climate extremes changed? ---- Karl*, Gruza, Groisman, Jones, Frich, Kunkel, Parker, Peterson, Plummer, Salinger and Heino. Should be asked to contribute to the section where appropriate 2.7.1 Background Definition of extremes, types of weather and climate extremes addressed, and what constitutes extremes in a changing climate. What is the use results from difference between variability changes and extremes. The Extremes Meeting in Aspen 1998, and the APN extremes meeting. Zwiers to contribute here with Peterson/Folland on APN Meeting. 2.7.2 Is there evidence for changes in climate variability? Define time scale and elements. New information from Robert Balling and R. Quayle. 2.7.2.1 Temperature Address changes in daily/monthly/seasonal/interannual and decadal changes in variability and extremes. New information from Extremes Workshop., Frich’s work with Peterson, Salinger for S.H. and Gruza indices 2.7.2.2 Precipitation Contribution from Peterson/Gruza/Thapliyal/Lal (India). Analyses of changes in precipitation variability that would be useful include changes in interannual precipitation, e.g., Indian Monsoonal Index, Zonal and Regional patterns. 2.7.2.3 Atmospheric circulation Input data sets include the CARDS (GUAN network plus) and the reanalysis. New analyses are encouraged with contributions from Folland*, Livezey, K. Mo, Eskridge, observed/calculated changes in variability of indices and patterns discussed in the circulation section 2.7.3 Are extreme weather events changing? Define terms here Karl* e.g., weather related to transcient circulation 2.7.3.1 Tropical cyclones Salinger, Landsea, Nicholls to discuss trends and variation of tropical cyclones, landfalling storms, and the intensity of storms. Include discussion of El Nino, La Nina effects all interannual variability. How good is our data on trends? 2.7.3.2 Extra-tropical storminess Karl with input from Jones, Gruza, Trenberth, Rosen to discuss new analyses with respect to storm intensity/tracts using reanalysis and sea level pressure. 2.7.3.3 Intense precipitation events Frich, Groisman, Zhai, Peterson, Jones, Kunkel and others participating in the AVL Extremes Meeting. Primary interest is new evidence improving information on trends and understanding how they arise. Discussion of changes in frequency and intensity are appropriate. 2.7.3.4 Extreme temperature Same as above with focus on breaking daily and monthly extreme records. Also include information on freeze days and high apparent temperature (combination of temperature and humidity) 2.7.3.5 Extreme surface moisture Dai as primary contribution. Include time series of drought/wet areal extent in terns of areal extent a/a recent paper by Dai et al. To show whether extremes of drought wet spells are increasing in areal extent. 2.7.3.6 Tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail, dust storms, and fire weather Contributors include Changnon, Angell, Brazdil, Trenberth, Landsea to provide data (time series) and discussion related to changes in these phenomena. 2.7.4 Summary of Section 2.7. Karl with input by all L.A. 2.8 Is the climate really changing? 2.8.1 Are the observed trends internally consistent Karl to lead the development of the IPCC 2001 version of the 1995 cartoon of observed changes with a 3 star rating with explanation for number of stars given to each variable e.g., conflicting analyses, quantity of information limited, etc. 2.8.2 What are the clearest changes? Folland* with input from all L.A. f East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, England Telephone 01603 592561 Fax: 01603 507719 e-mail: g.bentham@uea.ac.uk 1065. 1998-12-21 16:35:29 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 21 Dec 1998 16:35:29 -0700 from: "Mann, Margaret" subject: RE: GWPs to: 'Mike Hulme' Mike, Thanks for your help. Yes, I'd be interested in having you fax me the tables, but I'm more interested in getting a hold of the original report. I couldn't find the one you mentioned on the IPCC web site. Can you give me some guidance? My fax number is 303-275-2905. Thanks and Happy Holidays! Maggie > -----Original Message----- > From: Mike Hulme [SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: Friday, December 18, 1998 7:45 AM > To: margaret_mann > Subject: GWPs > > Margaret, > > Your request was forwarded by Michael Lautenschlager ........ > > We are not responsible on the IPCC DDC for determining GWPs. All I can do > is point you to Tables 2.8 and 2.9 in the 1996 IPCC Second Assessment > Report volume on the science of climate change, published by Cambridge > Univ. Press. These Tables have IPCC's latest word on the matter. > > If you do not have this publication I can fax you the tables if you give > me > your fax number. > > Regards, > > Mike > > > ************************************************************************** > *** > Dr Mike Hulme > Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162 > Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 > School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > University of East Anglia web site: > http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ > Norwich NR4 7TJ > ************************************************************************** > *** > Mean temp. in Central England during 1998 is running > at about +0.9 deg C above the 1961-90 average > *************************************************** > The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly estimate for 1998 > is for +0.58 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet > recorded > ************************************************************************** > *** 2761. 1998-12-29 15:54:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 29 Dec 1998 15:54:09 -0500 from: sdecotii@ncdc.noaa.gov subject: IPCC Chapter 2 Outline and Letter for Contributors to: pgroisma@ncdc.noaa.gov, drobins@gandalf.rutgers.edu, serreze@kryos.colorado.edu, jmagnuson@macc.wisc.edu, tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, gruza@omvpk.msk.su, raino.heino@fmi.fi, pf@dmi.min.dk, Phil.Arkin@noaa.gov, rheim@ncdc.noaa.gov, Richard_Armstrong@nocc.gov, j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz, William.Hogg@ec.gc.ca, Frank.H.Quinn@noaa.gov, robock@envsci.rutgers.edu, swwang@pku.edu.cn, laban.ogallo@meteo.go.ke, mechoso@cloud.atmos.ucla.edu, adai@cgd.ucar.edu, d9k@d9k.esd.ornl.gov, conway@atmos.washington.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, k-kunkel@uiuc.edu, deparker@meto.gov.uk, n.plummer@bom.gov.au, fzwiers@ec.gc.ca, ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, rquayle@ncdc.noaa.gov, robert.balling@asu.edu, landsea@aoml.noaa.gov, nnn@bom.gov.au, trenbert@ra.cgd.ucar.EDU, rdrosen@aer.com, gibm0978@info.iuol.cn.net, James.Angell@noaa.gov, sen@met.fsu.edu, mlal@cas.iitd.ernet.in, brazdil@porthos.geogr.muni.cz (See attached file: Ipcclead_prelim.doc)(See attached file: Paris4.doc) December 24, 1998 Dear Invited Contributor: This note is to formally request a contribution from you as a Contributor to the IPCC Third Assessment Report. In particular, we are soliciting your input to Chapter 2 of the report AObserved Variations and Changes in Climate@. A draft topic sentence outline for the content of the chapter, along with a list of Convening Lead Authors (CLA), Lead Authors (LA) and review Editors (RE) is given for your information at the end of this letter. Please see the enclosed outline for the areas we thought you could best contribute, but if there are additional areas you would like to contribute to, please provide the material to me and I will forward it to the appropriate Lead Author. Essentially, the fundamental purpose of the Chapter is to assess research on obtaining information about changes and variations of the climate based on observed and proxy records. Please consult a copy of the 1995 IPCC chapter for guidance on general content and style, though we are, of course, intending to put major new emphases on the recent issues that have arisen. You should also bear in mind the relevence of any material to the climate change detection issue. Although most of the material directly relevant to that chapter (Chapter 12) will go directly to those Lead Authors, do not hesitate to draw attention to material within your terms of reference that might be relevant in either that or our chapter. At this time, we are looking for short text contributions (1 to 3 pages) for each section where your name appears. In addition, we are requesting diagrams or figures you think are appropriate. If these can be provided in electronic form, that would be a benefit. Please discuss this with your lead author but POSTSCRIPT or embedded WORD97 diagrams are preferred in many cases. It is especially important that you write to the style of previous IPCC reports and you include references to work cited. As many of you know, it is extremely unlikely that your text will be preserved in the final draft, but we have found that almost without exception that the topics addressed in invited contributions have found their way into the final report. We need to have your contribution by February 20 to meet the schedule listed below: February 20, 1999 B> Assemble Draft Minus 1 for review at the Asheville Meeting March 8-12, 1999B> Asheville Lead Author and Contributor Review Meeting (Contributors attend at their discretion) May 14, 1999 --> Zero order draft for informal review within the IPCC October 1, 1999 --> First draft for official Expert Review March 24, 2000 --> Second draft for official Government Review September 29, 2000 --> Third Draft addressing all review comments January 2001 --> Last plenary in which the TAR is finalized However, we recognize that this timetable may be insufficient for all your material. Please advise your requesting lead author of material you wish to submit a little later. Other key dates include material presented by your lead author at the Asheville meeting (March 8-12) and delivery by early April for inclusion in the zero order draft. We point out that inclusion in the Chapter of the material you send to us is not guaranteed. It is up to the CLAs and LAs to evaluate the appropriateness of including your material in the Chapter. The Chapter will only include material produced subsequent to the publication of the 1995 WGI SAR report, unless it is relevant to ongoing controversies, or material that for whatever reason was not included in the SAR, but that it is relevant for the TAR. Therefore, please do not send all of your research products, but only recent (i.e. post 1995) and relevant ones (based on the points above and the Chapter outline. Please be concise and focused with the material you send. In particular, state clearly if you want to convey a specific message. The information you send should be available in the published literature papers, books, reports, proceedings etc., not necessarily in English, be part of a database that has been peer-reviewed and is available for analysis or at least be part of a submitted paper or report (and thus available in preprint format) by the time of the various deadlines. Following IPCC rules also "unpublished reports in the public domain" are eligible for inclusion/reference. Although the basic structure of the Chapter is not cast in stone at this time, we will likely not modify it substantially unless there was a very compelling reason. This basic Chapter structure has already been accepted by the IPCC Plenary. We have organized our chapter and the handling of submitted contributions in the following way: We formed sub-groups of LAs and Key Contributors in charge of producing a first draft of each section of the Chapter. If we have not tagged you in the appropriate section, we ask that you identify the section of the Chapter you feel your contribution is most relevant for and send your contribution to the LAs in charge of that section or the Key Contributor who will forward it on to the appropriate LA. Please, do not send material to all of us or only to the Chapter CLAs. The contribution can be in the form of written summary statements, figures and tables (possibly with comments on them), pre- and re-prints of papers and other published material. Electronic mail, fax or hard copies are ok. If you have any question you can reach me by e-mail, fax or phone as noted above. Thanks again for your help. Please let us know if you cannot meet the February 20 deadline. Based on this set of deadlines, it is evident that the scheduling for the production of the Chapter is extremely tight, so that we need to receive contributions AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, noting the statement made under the timetable above. 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If you have any question on the Chapter, you can address them at the following email addresses: tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov or cfolland@meto.gov.uk With the best regards of all the authors of Chapter Chapter 2 authors: CLA: C. Folland (UK) E-Mail: cfolland@meto.gov.uk T. Karl (USA) E-Mail: tkarl@ncdc.noaa.gov LA: S. Wang (China) E-Mail: swwang@pku.edu.cn J. Christy (USA) E-Mail: christy@atmos.uah.edu J. Jouzel (France) E-Mail: jouzel@obelix.saclay.cea.fr A. Clarke (Canada) E-Mail: clarke@eos.ubc.ca J. Oerlemans (Netherlands) E-Mail: j.oerlmans@fys.ruu.nl M. Mann (USA) E-Mail: mann@snow.geo.umass.edu (normal) memann@titan.oit.umass.edu (attachments) G. Gruza (Russian Federation) E-Mail: climate@cabel.net M. Salinger (New Zealand) E-Mail:j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz RE: B. Nyenzi (Tanzania) E-Mail: bnyenzi@nyenzi.com R. Hallgren (USA) E.Mail: hallgren@dc.ametsoc.org Sincerely, Chris Folland Tom Karl . Co-Convening Lead Authors 10 Chapter 2 Outline and Assigned Areas of Primary Responsibility 1 The overall length of Chapter 2 should be about 35 two-column pages including figures. In the outline below contributions are identified along with topic sentence issues related to the contribution from each contributor. Those authors with an asterisk beside their name are responsible for developing first draft all material until the next author with an asterisk appears in the outline. 2 Introduction — Folland* and Karl to describe the motivation for Chapter 2, primary issues, and how uncertainty is addressed 2.1 Summary of IPCC 1995 ---- Folland and Karl* to describe the highlights of IPCC 1995 and provide information to the reader regarding areas of particular note for this report as related to major advances in our knowledge about climate variations and changes within the IPCC 2000 report. Put in context of key controversies. 2.2 How much is the world warming? 2.2.1 Background ---- Karl to discuss the variety of thermal indicators available and why we look at so many different measures of temperature change. 2.2.2 Surface temperature ---- Karl to describe primary issues affecting our confidence in documenting changes of temperature in the instrumental record on global, regional and local space scales. We will be calculating various trends and smoothing methods, so please send data described below to tpeterso@ncdc.noaa.gov. 2.2.2.1 Land surface air temperature Folland */Jones/Peterson/Gruza/Hansen to provide update of worldwide surface land temperature change and description of data trends and improvements since 1995 IPCC report. Four data sets will be used (Hansen, Jones, Peterson, and Gruza/Laguina to update Vinnikov/Groisman data set). Please include NH, SH and Globe. Please provide annual and monthly values to Tom Peterson for plotting and trend calculation. If possible provide data on 5x5 grid for each year/month value for the following data sets: GHCN and Jones (East Anlglia data). Easterling to provide write-up on updated trends for max/min/dtr. These data should be provided on a 5x5 grid (Annual). Cloud amounts could be plotted on the same time series graph (see Dai analysis) ---- Easterling -- Coordinate with Groisman, Kaiser and Dai to obtain national cloud cover data sets. 2.2.2.2 Sea surface and ocean surface air temperature. 2.2.1.1 Folland/Parker/Reynolds/Quayle to update worldwide NH, SH, and global SSTs with accompanying diagrams including recent modeling results with fixed SSTs with and without bucket corrections. Please include a description of observed changes. Reynolds/Quayle to provide data subsequent to bucket corrections, e.g., satellite era. Provide annual and year-month values to David Parker for plotting and trend calculations for NH, SH, and Globe. For Folland/Parker provide 5x5 gridded data. Also Folland and Parker will provide plots of SST and nighttime marine air temperatures on an annual basis for Globe. 2.2.1.1 Land and sea combined Folland/Parker/Jones/Peterson/ Quayle. Folland will provide write-up describing results of combined data of the NH, SH and Globe which will include both circle plots reflecting trends at 5x5 grid cells as well as isopleth values depicting trends since the turn of the Century. This will be in addition to the time series plots of NH, SH, and Globe. 2.2.1.2 Are the surface temperature trends consistent? Folland and Parker to produce a description of the consistency among different data sets and land and ocean temperatures. We will also show here the trends of temperature for different periods (winter & summer) for the periods 1910-1945, 1946-1975, and 1976-present. These will be shown either in circle representation (5x5 grid cells) or in isopleth form. We have also been requested to produce the following time series on an annual basis for temps: NH-SH, Zonal 10-30N - 50-70N, Tland - Tocean, Twinter-Tsummer averaged for both hemispheres 1.1.1 2.2.2 Tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures — Christy*/Hurrell/ Parker/Santer/Palmer/Changery/Eskridge/Brown/Stendel/Angell/ Sterin/Gaffen/Ramaswamy. Zonal mean Temps T 700mb - T 100mb using radiosonde data. John Christy will lead this section. It will include a discussion of the observed changes of radiosonde and MSU temperatures as well as a discussion of these same trends from the NCEP re-analysis. Christy will provide an illustration depicting the trends of temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere using various data sets. Discussion should include the likelihood that the trends can change sign from the surface to the stratosphere as observed based on model simulations as well as physical arguments. CARDS data as well as the Parker data sets should be used. 2.2.21 Tropospheric trends Zonal plots are requested for the zones 20S to 20N and 20N and 60N. Discussion of radiosonde errors and error related to orbital drift, orbital decay, and calibration of instruments need to be considered. 2.2.2.2 Lower stratospheric trends ---- Alex Sterin should be contacted and the Ozone Assessment for 1998 should be considered (Ramanathan had the lead in the ozone assessment for this part of the report). 2.2.2.3 Are tropospheric and surface trends consistent? See notes in 2.2.3. 1.1.2 Volcanic and solar effects in the recent temperature record — Rind/Folland*/Haigue/Leen to discuss the effect of solar and volcanic forcing in the observed temperature record and the proxy record. — This section may be moved to the proxy records section. 2.2.3 Retreat of the glaciers — Oerlemans* to discuss both mass balance data and glacier length data as related to temperature.. Illustration required converting glacier length deviations to temperature based on modeling information. 1.1.1 2.2.4 Trends in snow cover extent and lake ice Karl*/Groisman/Robinson/Serreze/Magnuson. Provide updated figure of snow cover extent with co-plotted temperature data. Consider additional time series plots as related to snow cover from in-situ data. Discuss uncertainties in the data. Error due to gridding and method of observing and data processing. An update of the satellite N.H. snow cover extent data set is required (co-plotted with temperatures) for each season. Temperature should be within the snow covered areas. 2.2.5 Are the retreat of glaciers, lake ice records, and trends in snow cover consistent with surface temperature trends. Karl* 2.2.6 Sea ice and thickness — Clarke* /Walsh/Rayner. Provide time series of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice with discussion of data uncertainties and observed changes. Please to the extent possible discuss the physical factors governing sea ice extent to help interpret any changes in the time series. 2.2.7 Subsurface ocean temperatures — Clarke/Levitus/White/Philander Subsurface Ocean Temperature—A. Clarke will lead this session. Contribution will include Warren White, George Philander, and Syd Levitus but others are certain to be relevant. Issues to be addressed include changes in upper ocean temperature/salinity, to the dynamics related to changes in the N. Atlantic during the 1990s e.g., temperature and salinity as related to circulation, such as the NAO, and deep water temperature change that may be related to global surface temperature change points, e.g., 1945, 1977. Include Pacific Ocean where possible e.g, North Pacific gyre, inter-decadal tropical Pacific changes. This section may need interaction by the Lead Author with the Processes Chapter at an early stage. 2.2.8 All lead authors lead by Karl* (summary of 2.2) 2.3 Is the recent warming unusual? 2.3.1 Background — Mann*/Jouzel— Emphasize outstanding issues from the 1995 report and new areas of info since then, plus emphasize why this section is important. 2.3.2 Climate of the past 1000 years Mann will lead with Jones/Jouzel/Salinger. Emphasis will be on proxy, historical and borehole data that have been used to identify interannual and decadal temperature (N. Hemisphere or global) anomalies back to the so-called “Mediaeval Warm Period”. Discussion will emphasis uncertainties in reconstruction and compare the 1990s and the temperature increase of the 20th Century with the recent Millennium. Moisture related indicators should not be ignored. 2.3.2.1 Proxy Climate Indicators This section will focus on proxy indicators including tree ring data. Contributions from Overpeck, Fisher, J. Cole, Briffa, Barnett, Cook, and Bradley will be solicited. Assessment of uncertainties with respect to calibration differences between observed and proxy data as well as the effects in incomplete spatial coverage should be discussed. A figure showing best estimate and 95% confidence of temp back to 1000 AD is desirable. 2.3.2.2 Historical Documentary Evidence Section lead by Wang*/Salinger with contribution from Bradley, Diaz/Wang, Pfister, and Selivanov. New information on the warming trend in the Tibetan Plateau during the 20th Century should be discussed as well as other historical data. Historical documents from China and other parts of the world should be discussed as they relate to confirm and contradict present thinking about temperature change of the past 1000 years. 2.3.2.3 Borehole Measurements Section lead by Mann* with contribution from Pollock. This section should focus on recent efforts to develop a worldwide network of borehole measurements. Again uncertainties with respect to incomplete coverage and analysis methods should be discussed. A figure of borehole worldwide temps back to at least 1500 is desirable. 2.3.2.4 Multi-Proxy Synthesis Mann will lead this section. Emphasis will be on whether the proxy data builds a consistent picture of change. A figure showing both Borehole and Proxy temperature changes is desirable. 2.3.2.5 Glacier Length Records Oelermans* will lead with contr ibutions sought from Haeberli and Fitzharris. Rowden-Rich (Tasmania) has offered to contribute. Both observed glacier length and model data will be used to build a picture of multi-century temperature change. If possible, at least 1 figure should be produced to show the relation between temperature and glacial length. 2.3.2.6 Was there a Little Ice Age and a Mediaeval Warm Spell Mann* and Jones to lead. Discussion should answer the question posed in context with data from 2.3.2.1 to 2.3.2.5. 2.3.3. Summary of 2.3.2 Led by Folland* 2.4 2.4 How rapidly did climate change in the distant past? 2.4.1 Background Jouzel* will lead and emphasize data used to answer question above. Some discussion on why we can use just a few ice cores to discern changes of global climate in the distant past. 2.4.2 How stable was the Holocene climate? Jouzel to lead. Stability of the climate will be discussed as related to the 20th Century warming. Lake sediments, ice cores, deep sea sediments will all be referenced to provide a comprehensive picture. A figure showing temperature changes is desirable. How much warmer than now was the Holocene maximum? 2.4.3 How fast did climate change during the glacial period? Jouzel with contributions from Thompson (shallow ice cores) lakes (Overpeck), Magnuson (deep ice cores). Jouzel will also address ocean sediment data to discuss improved information about multiple episodes of almost global extent of “rapid climate change” since the last IPCC assessment. 2.4.4 How stable was the previous inter-glacial? Jouzel to lead. Primary question here is whether the earth has warmed by more than 0.6 EC during any Century since the previous inter-glacial. Has it warmed by more than 1-3EC (likely prediction for next Century). 2.4.5 Summary of 2.4 -- All lead authors lead by Jouzel 2.5 How have precipitation and atmospheric moisture changed? 2.5.1 Background Karl* will discuss uncertainties in precipitation and moisture measurements, and the need to intercompare observations from a variety of observing systems as well as their spatial continuity. Difficulties of high lat. and ocean precip measurements also discussed. Mention new “integrated” global precip data sets. 2.5.2 Trends in precipitation 2.5.2.1 Karl will lead with contributions from Groisman/Peterson/Hulme and Gruza. Precipitation changes will be identified in global maps (circle) as in 1995 report for 20th Century and during periods of change points 1900-45, 45-76 and 77-98 similar to temperature change points. These will be annual values as well as a cold and warm season. Projection of figure will be based on time series zonal plots and global maps with trend magnitude depicted by circles. Issues to resolve include precip in high latitudes, especially Russia . GHCN and Hulme combined data sets will be used, but national data from Russia (USSR) will take precedence to resolve apparent discrepancy with National Data Sets. Heino and Frich will contribute regional information (data to GHCN/Hulme data set as appropriate). Razuvaev will be contacted for Russian precip data . 2.5.2.2 Ocean Primary contributors include Arkin and Xie as related to the GPCP dataset. Primary issue relates to whether we have any information about large scale changes in ocean precip we can trust. Related data includes OLR and High reflectivity Data Sets as discussed in IPCC 1995. Arkin again is the primary information source. 2.5.2.3 Simultaneous changes of temp and precip Karl will discuss the trends (spatially and zonally) of temperature and precipitation changes for various periods of consistent global temperature change (1900-45, 45-76, and 77-98) for both the cold and warm season. 2.5.3 Snowfall Karl/Groisman/Robinson/Heim/ Lal/Armstrong will be the primary contributors. Snowfall information and snow depth from longer term in-situ data should also be incorporated as these data now span large areas of the NH (Robinson) key contact for N.A., Armstrong, USSR, Gruza/Razuvaev USSR also; Wang/Li for PRC. Lake Ice contribution John Magnusson (Univ of Wisconsin). 2.5.4 Land-surface and subsurface water 2.5.4.1 Streamflow Karl with lead with contributions from Salinger, Lins, Shiklomanov, and Georgievsky. South American data to include recent work appearing in J. Climate. Main issue is whether streamflow and precip trends are consistent. Other contributors include Lattenmeir (USA) and Salinger for S.H. information. Hogg to contribute info on Canadian Streamflow. Salinger will work with WMO Hydro group. S.A. information from Jose Marengo INPE. 2.5.4.2 Lake Levels Karl will lead with Vuglinsky as a contributor along with Nicholson and Street-Pernot to provide any update from 1995 report on lake levels. Quinn to update US Great Lakes and Hogg Canadian Lake levels. An update of the Caspian Sea level will be presented by Vuglinsky/Skiklomanov/Georgivsky. Salinger will work with WMO to obtain new data for S.H. 2.5.4.3 Soil moisture Robock/Speranskaya will be asked to provide updates of soil moisture over Russia and Wang/Robock over China. Key issue is whether soil moisture is consistent with related work. 2.5.5 Evaporation 2.5.5.1 Land Update of pan evaporation data over USA; Peterson; Update of Russian data Golevbev; Salinger to identify and develop S.H. pan evaporation data; Wang to focus on China Pan Evap data and Lal data and trends from India. Frich to focus on European pan evap data. Ogallo, African data and for S.A., Mechoso. 2.5.5.2 Ocean Allen Clarke* will lead this section. Primary issue will be to discuss trends of Evap and their affect on ocean circulation as well as trends of Evap over the ocean tropics in particular. Is there any new material since IPCC 1995? 2.5.6 Water Vapor Folland* with Parker will develop this contribution; new analyses from Zhai and Eskridge. CARDS data (Eskridge) Elliott and Gaffen for Euresia and North America. 2.5.6.1Surface water vapor SSM/I data and analyses by Gaffen may hold promise for new data. Christy will provide SSM/I analyses. Prospects of major new analyses of global water vapor at the surface?. 2.5.6.2 Tropospheric water vapor See notes in 2.5.6; Rob Allen could contribute w/r to his analysis of changes in global sea level pressure. 2.5.7 Clouds Karl* to lead with (Dai/Kaiser over land) 2.5.7.1 Land — New analyses by Dai and Kaiser over the land area should be included. 2.5.7.2 Ocean — New research by Bajuk/Leovy should be discussed; Bajuk will be asked to develop a 1-page contribution updating his recent paper. 2.5.8 Summary of 2.5 All lead authors led by Karl 2.6 Are the atmospheric/oceanic circulations changing? 2.6.1Background, including new evidence for natural decadal variability, Folland* to lead, with substantial support from Hurrell. 2.6.2 El Nino/Southern Oscillation Clarke, Folland, Salinger with input from K. Wolter, Livezey, Goddard and Graham. Emphasis to include a variety of ways to categorize ENSO/El Nino/La Nina and what they tell us, e.g, sea level, clouds, etc. This should also include quantitative information on subsurface temperature and salinity. SST analysis by Kaplan should also be considered. Time Series plans of ENSO should be developed and the question of changes in frequency/intensity, and contribution to global warmth of 1997/1998 addressed. 2.6.3 NAO, PNA AO, PDO, monsoonal indices and the COWL Folland with Hurrell, Wallace, Clarke, Wang, and Livezey. Information should include time series plots of important indices and a discussion regarding why these indices are useful measures of variability and how they affect our understanding of climate change. 2.6.4 Northern hemisphere circulation Gruza, Trenberth, Kingste Mo, and Livezey. Results from reanalysis should be discussed as related to changes in circulation. Can also include important large-scale changes as they would affect storms, precipitation, and other climate elements. 2.6.5 Southern hemisphere circulation Salinger to lead with contributions from Rob Allen, Neville Nicholls, and Warren White. Information should include circulation indices (including Austral-Asian Monsoon) and the Antarctic circumpolo-circulation both ocean and atmosphere. The South Pacific Convergence Zone and its relation to the understanding of climate variability/change 2.6.6 Summary of Section 2.6 ---- All Lead Authors lead by Folland 2.7 Has climate variability or climate extremes changed? ---- Karl*, Gruza, Groisman, Jones, Frich, Kunkel, Parker, Peterson, Plummer, Salinger and Heino. Should be asked to contribute to the section where appropriate 2.7.1 Background Definition of extremes, types of weather and climate extremes addressed, and what constitutes extremes in a changing climate. What is the use results from difference between variability changes and extremes. The Extremes Meeting in Aspen 1998, and the APN extremes meeting. Zwiers to contribute here with Peterson/Folland on APN Meeting. 2.7.2 Is there evidence for changes in climate variability? Define time scale and elements. New information from Robert Balling and R. Quayle. 2.7.2.1 Temperature Address changes in daily/monthly/seasonal/interannual and decadal changes in variability and extremes. New information from Extremes Workshop., Frich’s work with Peterson, Salinger for S.H. and Gruza indices 2.7.2.2 Precipitation Contribution from Peterson/Gruza/Thapliyal/Lal (India). Analyses of changes in precipitation variability that would be useful include changes in interannual precipitation, e.g., Indian Monsoonal Index, Zonal and Regional patterns. 2.7.2.3 Atmospheric circulation Input data sets include the CARDS (GUAN network plus) and the reanalysis. New analyses are encouraged with contributions from Folland*, Livezey, K. Mo, Eskridge, observed/calculated changes in variability of indices and patterns discussed in the circulation section 2.7.3 Are extreme weather events changing? Define terms here Karl* e.g., weather related to transcient circulation 2.7.3.1 Tropical cyclones Salinger, Landsea, Nicholls to discuss trends and variation of tropical cyclones, landfalling storms, and the intensity of storms. Include discussion of El Nino, La Nina effects all interannual variability. How good is our data on trends? 2.7.3.2 Extra-tropical storminess Karl with input from Jones, Gruza, Trenberth, Rosen to discuss new analyses with respect to storm intensity/tracts using reanalysis and sea level pressure. 2.7.3.3 Intense precipitation events Frich, Groisman, Zhai, Peterson, Jones, Kunkel and others participating in the AVL Extremes Meeting. Primary interest is new evidence improving information on trends and understanding how they arise. Discussion of changes in frequency and intensity are appropriate. 2.7.3.4 Extreme temperature Same as above with focus on breaking daily and monthly extreme records. Also include information on freeze days and high apparent temperature (combination of temperature and humidity) 2.7.3.5 Extreme surface moisture Dai as primary contribution. Include time series of drought/wet areal extent in terns of areal extent a/a recent paper by Dai et al. To show whether extremes of drought wet spells are increasing in areal extent. 2.7.3.6 Tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail, dust storms, and fire weather Contributors include Changnon, Angell, Brazdil, Trenberth, Landsea to provide data (time series) and discussion related to changes in these phenomena. 2.7.4 Summary of Section 2.7. Karl with input by all L.A. 2.8 Is the climate really changing? 2.8.1 Are the observed trends internally consistent Karl to lead the development of the IPCC 2001 version of the 1995 cartoon of observed changes with a 3 star rating with explanation for number of stars given to each variable e.g., conflicting analyses, quantity of information limited, etc. 2.8.2 What are the clearest changes? Folland* with input from all L.A.