1997 Emails ______________________________________________________ 1036. 1997-01-07 15:33:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 07 Jan 1997 15:33:54 +0100 from: Michael Williams subject: training proposal to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Greetings. I received a one-page proposal with "Summary" and "The Package". This proactive training approach looks good to me. Several thoughts on possible synergies: I have just read a proposal from START and others to the GEF for a project on integrated assessments of climate change, with a focus on policies and economics, but some similar language to yours regarding the approach. Tom Downing of the ECU at Oxford is involved with it. I have received funds to organize a few workshops in Central/Eastern Europe to promote awareness based on the IPCC reports, targeting policymakers, probably in June. The Dutch government has produced a sophisticated CD ROM that demonstrates the science of climate change, with a second module that lets you plug in numbers and so forth to see what your national policies result in. It's quite good, and I will seek funds to translate and adapt it from the Dutch. Let me know what type of endorsement you are looking for. Regards, Michael. +-----------------------------------------------------------+ | Michael Williams (Mr.) Voice:(41-22)979 9242/4 | | Information Unit for Conventions Fax: (41-22)797 3464 | | UN Environment Programme Email: michael.williams | | Geneva Executive Center, C.P.356 @unep.ch | | 1219 Chatelaine, Switzerland http://www.unep.ch | +-----------------------------------------------------------+ 1637. 1997-01-09 10:37:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 9 Jan 1997 10:37:26 -0000 from: Mick Kelly subject: Proposal to: Mike Hulme Mike Comments on the proposal... Think you should spell out at the start that climate change=the potential change in climate resulting from etc just in case you get a dubm reviewer. Tiempo ref: I'm assuming that we are in the land of no reference to actual institutes here so the following wording will have to do. Original wording... "The final package will also include the contents of an electronic information service on climate change aimed at the developing nations (and funded separately from this proposal). " Change to... "The final package will also include the contents of an electronic bulletin and related information on climate change aimed at the developing nations produced by Partner A (and funded separately from this proposal through Partner B). " Where A=CRU and B=SEI. I leave you to translate the A and B to 1, 2 or 3. I'd rather not put in more than this as we don't know for sure that we have money to expand the current Web site (just the bulletin pretty much) at present so risky to get too precise about what we're adding to the current proposal. 2.2.2: Four components: When you describe the four components, the emphasis now on son of SCENGEN as a GCM viewer (which I think is right) does mean that this account doesn't really spell out the scenario development angle. This point only comes in in the last para as an aside. Just needs a short para at the end of the desc of component three something like.. "In combination, component 1, 2 and 3 enable the user to develop time-dependent estimates of future climate change for their region based on the latest technical information and taking full acount of scientific uncertainies." You also need an intro phase saying "Component one is..." up top. 2.2.3: trails not trails! Schedule: I'd be careful about committing to a Web site too early. It's easy to produce a useless Web site but would take longer to create anything of value. I'd leave this as a commitment till the point you have the first CD trial version. You can do it earlier but you don't want a very visible front for the project looking second-rate, and you won't have much too offer by month 3. Deliverables: I think that your trial version is actually the alpha version following standard software release terminology. Not important but Mike S has figured this out so you could ask him if you want to be precise. Partner table: Dr Nguyen Huu Ninh (Huu missing) My description: Dr Mick Kelly is a Reader in CRU and the Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment at UEA and is the editor of Tiempo, a bulletin and related electronic information service on global warming and developing nations. He is the Course Director of the MSc in Climate Change run by CRU and manages a collaborative project between UEA and the International Institute for Environment and Development concerning support for developing country activities on climate change. His major research project, at present, is an interdisciplinary study of vulnerability to climate change in Vietnam. BCAS: Description sent earlier. I'd add the material I sent on Atiq to the general description of BCAS then you have the few lines on the actual indvidual who's the contact point. Unfortunately I don't have any references to his work so I think you'll just have to live with a blank here unless BCAS deliver. Check the IPCC report as you could include that if nothing else. ACTS: Just so you know we have multiple corporate links, Siri is going to be based at ACTS during her fieldwork over the next couple of years. You probably picked this up as Kate from CSERGE, Siri's other supervisor, was at ACTS when you were liaising with them over Xmas. Reference to Tiempo towards end of proposal: Original... The project will take advantage of a parallel initiative being undertaken in the Climatic Research Unit concerning the provision of climate change information through the Internet based on the quarterly publication, Tiempo, [Mick - please advise] Change to.. The project will take advantage of a parallel initiative being undertaken in the Climatic Research Unit concerning the provision of climate change news, information, comment and resources through the Internet based on the quarterly publication, Tiempo. Production of the bulletin is supported by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency through the Stockholm Environment Institute. During 1997, it is planned that the existing Tiempo Web site will be expanded to include additional material and resources alongside the electronic version of the bulletin. Then new sentence for ECLAT. I'd prefer you didn't cut the above in any way as the wording is designed to reflect the fact that we don't have formal confirmation of funding for th expanded Web site as yet. OK - that's all. I've limited my comments as I know how tight time is. I'd suggest you read through the introductory few paragraphs and make sure it's clear that the overall point of the project is to address the issue of global warming. I think you maybe get into the specifics of what's being proposed a little too quickly for a non-climate reviewer. Equally, you might think about including the usual flow-chart diagram which shows how these aspects of climate study (emisisons scenarios, gas cycle models, global climate mdels and GCMs, climate scenarios) relate to the whole. Or simply say that climate scenario development is needed as a basis for impact stsudies and impact studies are needed as they are the gauge of the overall significance of the climate problem, and refer to the objective of the FCCC. Time is too tight for me to give you draft text on these general points I'm afraid. Setting up the fieldwork in Vietnam I'm responsible for in February and need to get various OKs from Ninh in Hanoi by the weekend. As this fieldwork is mainly social science and I'm flying solo on this without Neil, getting the planning right is of some importance! Cheers Mick __________________________________________ Mick Kelly Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: 1603 592722 Fax: 1603 507784 Email: m.kelly@uea.ac.uk Web: http:/www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ __________________________________________ 3669. 1997-01-15 12:40:24 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 15 Jan 1997 12:40:24 +0100 from: Michael Williams subject: project proposal to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Greetings. I am faxing you now a brief letter of support. The person handling the Dutch CD on climate change science and policy modelling is Yvo de Boer, at the Directorate Air and Energy, Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, y.y.deboer@dle.dgm.minvron.nl, tel. 31 70 3394386, fasx 3391310. I'm sure he would be pleased to speak with you. In a couple weeks we will republish our updated 30-sheet dossier on climate change; I've recently drafted a summary sheet, if you have a few mintues to review, please do (all underlying sheets already reviewed by several IPCC experts each). Best regards, Michael. Information Sheet 1 An introduction to climate change Human activity is releasing key greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is produced when fossil fuels are burned and forests are cut down. Methane and nitrous oxide are emitted from agricultural activities, changes in land use, and other sources. CFCs and other gases are released by industrial processes, while ozone in the lower atmosphere is generated by automobile exhaust fumes. Rising levels of greenhouse gases are expected to cause rapid climate change. By absorbing infrared radiation, these gases control natural energy flows through the climate system. The climate must somehow adjust to a "thicker blanket" of greenhouse gases in order to maintain the balance between energy arriving from the sun and energy escaping back into space. Climate models predict that the global temperature will rise by about 1-3.5°C by the year 2100. This projection is based on current emissions trends and assumes that no efforts are made to limit greenhouse gases. It contains many uncertainties, particularly about the scale and impacts of climate change at the regional level. The climate does not respond immediately to greenhouse gas emissions, so climate change will continue for many decades after atmospheric concentrations have stabilized. Meanwhile, the balance of the evidence suggests that the climate may already be responding to past emissions. Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the global environment. In general, the faster the climate changes, the greater will be the risk of damage. The mean sea level is expected to rise 15-95 cm by the year 2100, causing flooding of low-lying areas and other damage. Climatic zones (and thus ecosystem and agricultural zones) could shift towards the poles by 150-550 km in the mid-latitude regions. Forests, deserts, rangelands, and other unmanaged ecosystems would face new climatic stresses. As a result, many will decline or fragment, and individual species will become extinct. Human society will face new risks and pressures. Food security is unlikely to be threatened at the global level, but some regions are likely to experience food shortages and hunger. Water resources will be affected as precipitation and evaporation patterns change around the world. Physical infrastructure will be damaged, particularly by sea-level rise and by extreme weather events. Economic activities, human settlements, and human health will experience many direct and indirect effects. The poor and disadvantaged are the most vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change. People and ecosystems will need to adapt to future climatic regimes. Past and current emissions have already committed the earth to some degree of climate change in the 21st century. Adapting to these effects will require a good understanding of socio-economic and natural systems, their sensitivity to climate change, and their inherent ability to adapt. Many strategies are available for promoting adaptation. Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will demand a major effort. Based on current trends, the growth in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions is expected to result in the equivalent of a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 concentrations by 2030, and a trebling by 2100. Freezing global CO2 emissions at their current levels would postpone CO2-doubling to 2100. Emissions would eventually have to fall to about 30% of their current levels for concentrations to stabilize at doubled-CO2 levels sometime in the future. Given an expanding world economy and growing populations, this would require dramatic improvements in energy efficiency and fundamental changes in other economic sectors. The international community is tackling this challenge through the Climate Change Convention. Adopted in 1992, the Convention seeks to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels. Some 165 countries are Parties to this agreement. Developed countries are committed to taking measures aimed at returning their emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000; they have agreed to complete negotiations by December 1997 on emissions cuts for the first decades of the 21st century. Developed countries are also committed to promoting financial and technological transfers to developing countries to help them address climate change. Meanwhile, all Parties are gathering information on their national emissions and developing strategies for adapting to and minimizing climate change. Many options are available in the short- and medium-term for limiting emissions. Policymakers can promote energy efficiency and other climate-friendly trends in both the supply and consumption of energy. Key energy consumers include industry, houses and offices, transport, and farming. This can be achieved in large part by providing an appropriate economic and regulatory framework for consumers and investors. Policies should be cost-effective. "No regrets" solutions that make economic and environmental sense irrespective of climate change. They can greatly reduce emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by encouraging the best current and future technologies. Changes in practices, from better urban transport planning to personal habits such as turning out the lights, are also important. Taxes, regulatory standards, tradable emissions permits, information programmes, voluntary programmes, and the phase-out of counterproductive subsidies can all play a role. Energy efficiency gains of 10-30% above baseline trends can be realized over the next 20-30 years at no net cost. Some researchers believe that much greater gains are also feasible during this time and beyond. Improvements over the baseline can be achieved with current knowledge and today’s best technologies in all major economic sectors. In the longer term, it is possible to move close to a zero-emissions industrial economy – with its innumerable environmental and economic benefits. Reducing uncertainties about climate change, its impacts, and the costs of various response options is vital. In the meantime, it will be necessary to balance concerns about risks and damages with concerns about costs and economic development. The prudent response to climate change, therefore, is to adopt a portfolio of actions aimed at controlling emissions, adapting to impacts, and encouraging scientific, technological, and socio-economic research. +-----------------------------------------------------------+ | Michael Williams (Mr.) Voice:(41-22)979 9242/4 | | Information Unit for Conventions Fax: (41-22)797 3464 | | UN Environment Programme Email: michael.williams | | Geneva Executive Center, C.P.356 @unep.ch | | 1219 Chatelaine, Switzerland http://www.unep.ch | +-----------------------------------------------------------+ 1545. 1997-01-16 10:00:48 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 16 Jan 1997 10:00:48 +-1300 from: Richard Warrick subject: RE: Scengen and CC:Train to: 'Mike Hulme' Dear Mike, Thanks for your detailed reply concerning Scengen and CC:Train. I was not proposing to incorporate Scengen in a major way into the training package, and I am quite aware of the problems of consistency regarding aerosol effects, natural variability, etc. Rather, I thought that the training package would be an excellent way to introduce the existence of Scengen (and MAGICC) to the Country Teams which are responsible for coordinating national assessments. (the intention was NOT to provide intensive technical training in its use -- the country team members are largely coordinators, not technical climate experts). In this way, when it comes time to actually carry out the national assessments, Scengen would be recognised as a major tool for scenario generation and, if appropriate, CRU could be contacted regarding its application, technical training or collaboration. You had mentioned to me at the IPCC meeting in London that one of your major aims was to get Scengen recognised as the "standard" for scenario generation for impact assessments, and I simply thought I saw a way of furthering that aim through the CC:Train mechanism. Given the training programmes that you are currently proposing through ENRICH and others, I can understand your fears that we might "muddy the waters". Let me pose the following options; that we (1) use some hard-copy examples from Scengen; (2) incorporate a demonstration diskette (do you have one?); (3) just mention the existence of Scengen; (4) not mention Scengen at all. Frankly, I am quite happy with any of these. The part on climate change scenarios is really only a small bit of the overall V&A training package in any case. Good luck with your proposals. Cheers, Dick ---------- From: Mike Hulme[SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Thursday, 16 January 1997 00:45 To: Richard Warrick Cc: m.kelly@uea.ac.uk; tim.carter@fmi.fi; wigley@ncar.ucar.edu Subject: Re: Scengen and CC:Train Dick, And Happy New Year to you also. You've posed me a tricky one re. SCENGEN and my answer about it being incorporated into the CC:Train package as a component tool is going to have to be 'no'. Let me explain. We too here have plans to exploit SCENGEN (and MAGICC) in a training/educational context. I ran a pilot seminar here for UNEP before Christmas on scenario construction, although this was using the new WINDOWS/Unix versions of both MAGICC and SCENGEN (MAGICC 2 and SCENGEN 2; IPCC 1995 compatible) we have re-written. Also, I have just submitted a proposal (called SPARCCS) to ENRICH in DGXII for a support package for regional climate change scenarios. This would be a 2-year project with emissions people, as well as MAGICC, SCENGEN and our new global historic climatology. I think we have a good chance of funding. With this background I do not want SCENGEN (and especially the old DOS version) 'leaking' out into the climate training community at this stage. I am confirmed in this view by thinking that the complex issues surrounding scenario creation (and the new IPCC Taskgroup on scenarios for the 3rd assessment is grappling with these - ask Tim Carter about it) should _not_ be an essential part of a vulnerability/adaptation package. And even if you think differently then let me suggest the following: if you think it should be a minor part then I do not think that you need SCENGEN formally incorporated; if you think it should be a major part then not only do I think you are wrong in thinking so, but there is more to the scenario issue than can be supplied by SCENGEN - for example, you need MAGICC, you need to consider how you handle aerosols, and you need to think about natural variability and signal/noise issues. My feeling is that by all means use SCENGEN within CEARS in thinking about the training package and coming up with some off-line examples (either sample scenarios or guided sensitivity), but do _not_ incorporate it in the package. [By the way SCENGEN does not have imaginery countries!]. If people want more detailed thinking on scenarios then you could always refer them to CRU (which is what our speciality is). I hope you understand my feelings on this - I am not trying to be negative, but am thinking ahead and about the complexity of the scenario issue. I have talked with Tim Carter recently at some length about some of these things so I will copy this correspondence to him. Good luck with CC:Train anyway and I'm sure you'll come up with something good. Regards, Mike At 14:41 10/01/97 +-1300, you wrote: >Dear Mike, > >Happy New Year's Greetings from Downunder! > >I have a question for you regarding Scengen that relates to a "training >package" which CEARS have agreed to develop for CC:Train (under UNITAR). > CC:Train is currently developing about four such training packages >pertaining to climate change, of which CEARS has agreed to undertake one, >on Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment. The V&A and other packages are >supposed to be flexible enough to be used under a variety of regional and >country contexts. These packages build upon existing guidelines and >manuals (e.g. Carter et al's IPCC Guidelines...) and are designed for >trainers who will be conducting training workshops for the coordinators of >national assessments (the CC:Train "Country Teams"). Beginning on 21 >January, Tim Carter will be here for 3 weeks, as will Stephanie Lenhart >(U.S. Country Studies Program), in order to help with this task. The V&A >training modules will closely follow the IPCC Guidelines. I have proposed >developing the package as a kind of role-playing simulation exercise in >which the participants carry out a mini-assessment for a hypothetical >country. > >One of the major steps in the assessment, of course, is the development of >climate change scenarios. I thought it would be very effective to use >Scengen for this purpose, and to make Scengen a component tool of the >training package. Can I use Scengen for this purpose? One possible >advantage of doing so is that Scengen could, de facto, quickly become the >standard method used by various Country Teams in carrying out national >assessments for UNFCCC reporting (or is this not an advantage?!). > >Please advise on how I should proceed. > >Best wishes to all at CRU. > >Cheers, >Dick > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----- Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ Norwich NR4 7TJ Mean temperature in C.England during 1996 was 0.3degC below the 1961-90 average. The maximum temperature in Norwich: Tuesday 13 January: 9.1degC. 690. 1997-01-21 06:53:51 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 21 Jan 97 06:53:51 EST from: drdendro@lamont.ldgo.columbia.edu (edward cook) subject: Que pasa? to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Hi Keith, I was just wondering how you are making out with that Kalman filter mess I sent you. I am only going to be around for about 2 more weeks before I go downunder. So, if you have anything you want to pass by me, it ought to be before then. In my conversations with Brendan, it has occurred to me that something analogous to what you find in your data (a systematic departure between tree rings and temperature over the past few decades) also is apparent in some of the Huon pine data. Specifically, the BCH site of Brendan's, which is the second highest site compared to Lake Johnston, shows the same effect as you see, at least in the ring widths anyway. We don't yet have density data for that site. The high-pass variations in ring width lock in beautifully with temperature, better in fact than does Lake Johnston. However, the low-pass side goes down over the past 30 years years as temperatures have increased. Brendan and I have speculated about this a lot. My pet theory is that temperatures have risen sufficiently to cause net photosynthesis to go into deficit occasionally (i.e. respiration exceeds primary photosynthesis). Of course, this theory is pretty bad as is because it doesn't explain why the slightly higher (say 50m) Lake Johnston site maintains its temperature response at all frequencies. I suppose it is arguable that what we are seeing is a very sharply defined threshold response and the LJH site is just cold enough to escape this effect. There also appears to be an inversion layer over western Tasmania that kicks in at around 900m. I don't know. Maybe it is totally coincidental. Cheers, Ed 523. 1997-01-30 12:18:00 ______________________________________________________ cc: ddokken@usgcrp.gov date: Thu, 30 Jan 1997 12:18:00 -0500 from: ddokken@usgcrp.gov (Dave Dokken) subject: Re: Regional Climate Projection Piece to: Mike Hulme Thank you Mike. Since you never saw the figs/tables, I faxed them to your attention. dave >Dave, > >Here are some comments on the IPCC Special Paper on Regional Climate >Impacts. I have copied these to Richard also and have put a manuscript in >the post which you might care to pass on to the authors of the IPCC >manuscript for me. > >Thanks, > >Mike > > >Simulation of Regional Climate Change with Coupled Climate Models and >Regional Modelling Techniques > >Some comments by Mike Hulme >Climatic Research Unit >UEA, Norwich NR4 7TJ >(email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk) > > >I found the paper clear and well-written and it should form the basis of a >useful introduction for the Special Report. I have not seen the Figures so >I cannot comment on these in detail. My additional comments are below: > >p.1, Regional Simulations .... 1st para: Figure 1: it is not strictly >legitimate to compare change fields from eq. and tr. experiments at the time >of CO2 doubling (because of the difference between equilibrium and realised >change) or between warm-start and cold-start tr. experiments at the time of >CO2 doubling (because realised warming is a function of the historic forcing >which may or may not have been included). I have not seen a list of the >experiments in Figure 1 so I do not know how far this is a problem. But be >careful. Even if it is not a problem, the point should be made that DC at >time of CO2 doubling in a tr. experiment is not equivalent to DC at time of >CO2 doubling in an eq. experiment. People used to dealing with eq. 2xCO2 >experiments may get confused here. > >p.2: the point should be made when comparing regional change patterns from >different GCMs that some (maybe a lot) of the differences between >experiments is due to interdecadal variability in the experiments >(especially true of non-temperature variables). A range of precip. changes >for a region from -20% to +20% is not a robust measure of the true >disagreement amongst the models about the GHG rainfall signal since no >allowance is made for interdecadal variability (i.e., signal to noise >ratios). Several simulations from the same model and same forcing would >also yield a range of regional precip. changes which might be just as >large!! Little work has been published on the analysis of GHG signals from >ensemble experiments, but see Cubasch et al. (1995) for a helpful example >(also a manuscript in preparation by John Mitchell). I think this point is >an important one to make (see also later). > >p.3: final bullet: this difference between the statistical significance of >precip. and temp. biases is most important (see my point above). A regional >rainfall 'signal' of +10% from a single GCM simulation may be meaningless >against the background noise. > >p.3: I do not like your use of the term 'model sensitivity' (and elsewhere >'climate sensitivity', e.g. line 17) to describe the regional DC from a >model simulation. This is dangerously confusing with the proper use of the >term 'climate sensitivity' which is the equilibrium warming from an >instantaneous doubling of CO2-equivalent. 'Biases' is fine for >model-observed differences; perturbed minus control differences should be >called 'regional climate changes', not sensitivities. > >p.3, lines 12/13: the sentence, ' ... the range of simulated scenarios of >the model regional biases were still large ....' is muddled. I cannot >discern your meaning. > >p.4, section on aerosol and GHG signals: I think again the point about >signal to noise ratios should be made. Just because an aerosol simulation >changes the sign of precip. change for a region, does not mean that this is >at all significant. If the rainfall change for a decade (or 30-year period) >switches from +5% to -5% when aerosols are included means nothing if the >natural 10-30 year rainfall variability is, say, 20% (see my manuscript >Hulme & Brown). > >p.5, 'Precipitation' section: here it is stated (twice) about a general >reduction in precip. over southern Europe, but on p.2 all models agreed >about a winter increase in precip. over the same region! Which is correct? > >p.5: I think this point about switching of rainfall change over Asian >monsoon in the aerosol experiments needs handling with some care. While it >may be true for the particular domain chosen here (5-30N, 70-105E), if one >looks within this domain or else looks at surrounding regions, one does not >necessarily get the same result. Here is a case where the headline rainfall >change number is highly sensitive on the region defined. For example, in >HADCM2 experiment over the Indian land area only, both GHG and aerosol >experiments yield a decrease in rainfall (see Hulme & Brown). > >pp.5/6, soil moisture section: I think the point should be made that many >environmental modellers prefer to calculate soil moisture themselves using >GCM output as an input into their (often) more sophisticated models of soil >and the water cycle. GCM soil moisture schemes are very crude! Relying on >GCMs for soil moisture changes is not often a good idea. > >p.7, statistical downscaling: a word of caution is needed here about >downscaling. Just because these methods may yield more spatial detail >and/or actual point data does not necessitate that these scenarios are in >any way 'better' than the GCM-derived ones. Downscaling methods still rely >on GCM output to drive them and, furthermore, most downscaling methods make >the big assumption that synoptic-weather relationships will remain unchanged >between the past and the future. The impression must not be given that >downscaling will solve all scenario difficulties (see below). > >p.7, line -11: change 'Limited applications ...' to 'A few applications ....' > >pp.7/8, regional modelling: very few climate change experiments with >regional models using more than 5-10 years of simulation. I do not know of >a high resolution climate change experiment for Africa (p.8, line 12). >There have been high res. experiments that include aerosols (p.8, lines >14/15) - the Hadley Centre have done this. > >pp. 7/8: time slice experiments should be mentioned here (see Cubasch et >al., 1995). > >p.9, line -5: 'inherent predictability' this statement may well be true, >but it depends what you mean by it. See my earlier comments about >signal/noise ratios. > >p.10, line 3: a good example where 'model sensitivities' should be replaced >by 'regional climate changes'. > >p.10, lines 7/8: dangerous to imply that high resolution models yield high >accuracy scenario!!! They may well yield more faithful control simulations >of regional climate, but their 'accuracy' re. future scenarios still depends >on assumptions about what drives the climate (i.e., what emissions scenario) >and about how good the driving GCM is! If your comment about inherent limts >to climate predictability is true then it doesn't matter what resolution the >climate model is!!! Even 1km resolution can give you appearance of excellent >control climate but says nothing about the accuracy of any scenario. > >These comments above also apply to the last paragraph. It seems you to me >that you are too upbeat about what high resolution models can do for us. >Climate prediction will still be elusive because: > >a) we do not know future forcing >b) we do not know the climate sensitivity (1.5 to 4.5C) >c) there are inherent limitations on climate predictability which are >resolution independent. > > > >Some Other References: > > >Airey,M., Hulme,M. and Johns,T. (1996) Performance of the Hadley Centre >GCM in simulating precipitation over land areas Geophys. Res. Letts., 23, >1657-1660. >Cubasch,U., Waszkewitz,J., Hegerl,G. and Perlwitz,J. (1995) Regional >climate changes as simulated in time-slice experiments Climatic Change, >31, 273-304 >Hewitson,B.C. and Crane,R.G. (1996) Climate downscaling: techniques and >application Climate Research, 7, 85-95. >Hulme,M. and Brown,O. (1997) How likely is tolerable regional climate >change? Unpublished manuscript, UEA, Norwich. (copy mailed to Dave Dokken) > >Risbey,J.S. and Stone,P.H. (1996) A case study of the adequacy of GCM >simulations for input to regional climate change assessments J. Climate, >9, 1441-1467. >Whetton,P., England,M., O'Farrell,S., Watterson,I. and Pittock,B. (1996) >Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse >coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: implications for climate change >scenario development Climatic Change 33, 497-519. > > > > > >At 12:33 15/01/97 -0500, you wrote: >>Dear Dr. Hulme - >> >>Richard Moss asked that I forward this draft chapter for the IPCC Special >>Report on the Regional Impacts of Climate Change to your attention. Since >>it is now a Special Report, we can bring in post-SAR material, and you may >>have an opinion on how to augment the piece. >> >>Any observations should be forwarded to both Richard and my attention, >>since he's on travel for the next 4 weeks solid! For easy reference, his >>e-mail address is rmoss@usgcrp.gov. >> >>I'm merely going to attach the MSWord 6.0 file as a quick fix. If you >>cannot read it, get back to me and I can pipe it from our server as an >>ASCII, convert it to your preferred word-processing package, or rely on the >>tried-and-true fax. >> >>Thanks for your help, >> >> >> >>Attachment Converted: c:\eudora\attach\Regional.doc >> >>Dave Dokken >>Project Administrator >>IPCC Working Group II TSU >>Code YS-1 >>300 E Street, SW >>Washington, DC 20546 >>+1.202.358.0507 (voice) >>+1.202.358.4104 (fax) >> >> >> >----------------------------------------------------------------------------- >Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 >Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 >School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk >University of East Anglia web site: >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ >Norwich NR4 7TJ > > >Mean temperature in C.England during 1996 was 0.3degC below the 1961-90 >average. >The maximum temperature in Norwich: Tuesday 28 January: 8.1degC. 4293. 1997-02-07 10:37:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 7 Feb 1997 10:37:01 GMT from: tj subject: Re: scenario files to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, SPECTRE is pick up the new files, it is just the title screen not updated. On SPECTRE root directory, there is a file SCENARIO.SLT which determins what will appear on the selection screen. It is a text file that can be edited by DOS editor. At the moment it looks like this, SCENARIO SPIS95A.OUT IS95a The standard IPCC 95 scenario; 2.68xC SPIS95B.OUT IS95b The second IPCC 95 scenario; 2.60xC SPIS95C.OUT IS95c The third IPCC 95 scenario; 1.48xC SPIS95D.OUT IS95d The fourth IPCC 95 scenario; 1.80xC SPIS95E.OUT IS95e The fifth IPCC 95 scenario; 3.40xC SPIS95F.OUT IS95f The sixth IPCC 95 scenario; 3.16xC SPFFES.OUT FFES Fossil free emissions scenario (Greenpeace); 1.23xC SPWEC93B.OUT WECREF World Energy Council reference scenario; 2.34xC SPMIN60.OUT Min60 A 60% reduction in global CO2 emissions by 2010; 1.26xC Starting from the second line, every two lines correspond to one scenario. First the filename, the next line is used in the selection menu. You don't have to used the old names. The majority of the vectory outline files were from the VAX and others are from various sources which I have forgot. I rediscover anything I'll let you know. Best wishes, Jiang 2627. 1997-02-07 11:29:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 7 Feb 1997 11:29:43 -0700 (MST) from: eronen matti subject: Re: Pentti and this mess to: Keith Briffa On Fri, 7 Feb 1997, Keith Briffa wrote: > Matti, > please tell me in some detail what the hell is going on. I was away for > a week with flu and come back to find incomprehensible messages from Joensuu > and now you. I have tried to phone Pentti but with no success. What is the > problem and is what Janice wrote back a problem for you. Please do not think > I have yet taken any side in this because I have yet to find out the > background. > > awaiting some sane explanation > > Keith > -- > Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom > Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784 > Dear Keith, This is a difficult thing, but I try to explain this in simple words. Before I left here, I wanted to make sure that dendro work will be in progress in Finland while I am absent. As you know, Pentti has not given the data (just a part) to the other members of the Finnish research group. I told him that I will not sign the contract with him for this spring, before he has delivered all data. A short time before I left here he told me that he had sent the data to Markus and Mauri, and I put my name to the contract paper. Markus and Mauri managed to open the files after some difficulties, but when they had studied the data for some weeks, they found that the "gap" was about 600 years long! Pentti had cut and hidden this part of the material. We cannot work with a man like him. He lied to me that he had sent all data and this way got my signature to the contract. I think that it is also a serious wrongdoing to hide a crucial part of the data in this way without telling anything to the collaborators. He only makes tricks to prevent the other researchers (including me and undirectly also you) from making progress in the research. And he pretends to work with us for a common project! You can make your own conclusions from this, but in Finland Pentti has spoiled many things. One thing is that I am not willing to be his supervisor any more. For five years he has told me that the doctoral thesis will be finished in a few months. I guess it will remain at that stage. As you can see, I am really angry and disappointed. I try to continue the research with Mauri and Markus. I have written here in Boulder a rather long manuscript, some kind of synthesis of our five-six year work in Lapland. I intended to publish it with Pentti, but I have now changed my mind and must partly rewrite it. I don't know the details of the financial disagreement, but Dr. Veijo Ilmavirta, the man responsible for EU-projects at the University of Helsinki, is furious. He has only sent me some short messages telling that Pentti's behaviour is unacceptable. His e-mail is Veijo.Ilmavirta@Helsinki,fi. These things will be settled but there is no return back as it was before this incident. Best wishes, Matti 1438. 1997-02-10 14:25:31 ______________________________________________________ cc: fritz.schweingruber@wsl.ch date: Mon Feb 10 14:25:31 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: reply to Gordon - Confidential to: druid@ldgo.columbia.edu -Please note that some words intended to be stressed have been bracketed by asterisks - Gordon, I have sat for a few days and mused on the message you recently sent to me. I am still, however, somewhat bemused by its content and frankly, wondering how things seem to have reached what I can only describe as this undesirable situation. First, you say there is no work going on in the Taimyr region and inform me that you have submitted a proposal to do this. Let me state clearly that as far as I am aware significant work is going on in Taimyr. This is being coordinated in Russia from Eugene Vaganov's lab. and *not insignificant* funding already has, is, and will continue to come from here and from Fritz Schweingruber's resources to fund this work. Ed Cook, who, incidentally, said nothing to me about your proposal to work in Taimyr, is well aware of our involvement and considerable investment in time and money in the area, and indeed tried to play with some of the data from this area while he was working on his version of the RCS programme during his recent visit here. Both Stepan and Eugene are official contractors on my current EC grant and I have put a great deal of additional effort, trying (as yet unsuccessfully) to get them both more funds under the COPERNICUS initiative in Europe. This proposal will be resubmitted in 1997 - specifically to fund ongoing densitometry in the Taimyr area. A past joint initiative, submitted by Fritz and myself and our Russian colleagues, resulted in INTAS funding the entire purchase and installation of the densitometric equipment at Krasnoyarsk, and Fritz is also supplying additional funds ,where he can ,to continue this work. Note that the densitometer was, initially at least, justified specifically on the grounds of sub-fossil data analysis in Taimyr and this is the ongoing justification being used for the resubmission of the COPERNICUS proposal. Maybe you did not know, but there are more than just 'dots on the map' as far as Taimyr work goes. There is a continuous chronology reaching back to ....... and much additional and ongoing work based on subfossil data. There are also spatial reconstructions based on the ring width and density data, and papers in preparation and in press describing this work. All of this, it is true, is by the by, and of course I fully respect both Eugene's and Stepan's need to go out and attempt to get funding wherever they can. I couldn't agree more with you about the perilous state of Russian funding, and I fully support in any way possible their attempts to secure whatever funding they can. Likewise, I fully acknowledge your own right to follow your exploration and work wherever you see fit. I hear you are working anyway in places such as Norway, eastern Russia, central Russia, etc. etc. So be it. There are many approaches and none is entirely 'right' or exclusive of others. Nevertheless, the current picture of research, as presented in your note, is misleading: more frankly, it is simply wrong. My only purpose here is to state a 'truer' version of the state of affairs. As for your next point about the RCS, in theory, different aged cohorts of trees do not necessarily render the method inapplicable. Provided there is no systematic growth bias in different cohorts - i.e. provided enough natural climate variability *long term* is represented in the *total* sample, the RCS curve should be a reasonable model of expected growth with age. The real problem arises when there is bias in the samples at a particular time that is not related to a climate shift - i.e. if one cohort all derive from an elevation that is significantly different from the mean, or perhaps all from a more boggy site so that growth was suppressed overall by this fact alone, then this bias will be imparted to the final chronology. This, I believe, may be a common problem in long, poorly replicated sub-fossil derived chronologies, especially where the tree age is relatively short. However, I still believe these (and raw averages where replication is high) at least offer a prospect of seeing long-term change that would otherwise be definitely removed. I am currently redoing the standardization of all of our chronologies, in an attempt to produce a grand reconstruction over the whole network - not with RCS which is definitely inapplicable to generally even-aged stands of trees - but with simple straight- line standardization. Now, let me turn to your last remarks. These, of course, epitomise a long standing and, in my opinion, disappointing polarity that has developed between you and Fritz over recent years. I stand in the middle - this is very different from 'sitting on the fence' inasmuch as I am not taking sides. On the contrary, I disagree with both of you and feel it is a great pity that you can't find more common ground. I know you both well and am happy to consider you both as friends. There are people in this field whose motives or at least methods I have always regarded with suspicion. You two, however, are motivated only by genuine scientific goals. Now it seems you have adopted positions which you both consider mutually exclusive and it is a great pity that you have taken up positions behind 'the barricades'. It is a greater pity that you can't respect each other's genuine concern for the subject and the contribution that each of you has made, and continue to make. Frankly, I think the disagreement started from little, grew unreasonably because of misunderstanding, and has become fossilized largely because of stubbornness. You specifically asked for my comments, so here they are. I think (as does Fritz) that you have been able to locate 'extreme' sites where greater recent ring-width increases occur than are apparent in many other northern or high altitude sites. Which of the sites is 'typical' and 'of what' are the most pertinent questions. It is possible that your sites are the 'odd' ones because they reflect extreme sensitivity to recent warming or even perhaps to some change in another growth limiting factor, e.g. Nitrate input. However, where I think you and Fritz have possibly gone wrong is in adopting too rigid interpretations of what your data, or Fritz's data, say about global change questions. The subject is long and involved, but I think you are both wrong if you insist on maintaining an aggressive attitude to each other's data. There are several questions relating to the various data, the forcing factors (not just climate), their manipulation (standardization and chronology construction) and the statistical interpretation of their variability. It would take me too much time to detail all this here. Basically, I think both of your data sets can be presented and possibly interpreted in different ways. My personal opinion is that you may both be laying too much stress on your opinions and that you are both potentially right and wrong in different aspects. There is a need for you and others to talk constructively together - informally, and without axes to grind - about this. What the subject in general does not need is sweeping statements, oversimplifying and partly misrepresenting each other's positions. I hope you will forgive my cheek in saying this - but I consider both of you to be true pioneers in the field and - I was asked. You both have my greatest regard and respect, and I think some more constructive interaction needs to be reinjected between you. I have always considered honest and open talk best, and that has been my justification for this note. Best wishes, Keith 4058. 1997-02-12 09:23:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Feb 12 09:23:35 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: the paper to: Brian We must put in more details of the calibration/verification stats. This means showing the regression coefficients for both calibration sub periods as well as the overall period equations. We must show re,ce stats and the significance levels of the verification rsquared and sign tests - I taqke it you have all these. What is the point of Table 3. All reconstructions based on regression underestimate the extreme predictand years .This Table just says the most extreme instrumental years produce the biggest residuals. I would drop this. Did you take a note of how the ring-width data were standardised? I'm making corrections/suggested ammendments to the manuscript. In the meantime you can get all your refs. confirmed and listed. I will sort out which ones of ours need to go in and rewrite the bit on calibration and data standartdisation if you can fax me back the stats a.s.a.p. this will help. Perhaps you could ring today? best wishes Keith 4418. 1997-02-15 19:10:14 ______________________________________________________ date: Sat, 15 Feb 1997 19:10:14 +0000 from: Menno Bouma subject: malaria in Europe to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Mike, It has been some time ago that we last met! Hope that things are well in East Anglia. 1) Did you hear that our joint proposal (with Pim Martens) is one of 1,500 now assessed by the EU? Does not look hopeful. However, maybe we can do some PR and raise the profile of the proposal a bit. What I have in mind is a letter to the Lancet relating weather and historic malaria fluctuations in Europe. In an earlier letter (1994, I may have given you a copy), the geographical association was made between areas affected by ENSO and periodic epidemics. This letter ends with an open explanation for the 20-year periods in malaria in Europe (Italy and the Netherlands). Last weeks publication in Science on a possible North Atlantic equivalent of the Nino with a period of 20 years may be of significance. I dug up the malaria data (Italy and The Netherlands) between 1820-1930 which do show evidence of this 20 year cycle, with exacerbations in 1821, 1839, 1860, 1879, 1902, 1920. I have no idea whether there are any climate data (sea temperature or otherwise) to justify a hypothesis that both phenomena. Do you have any suggestions? 2) We (Jon Cox and I) recently visited Colombia, and acquired (bought) temperature data series (varying in length), mainly from the highlands (min & max) for approximately 35 stations. They are on disk, so in case they are of any help to you, let us know. 3). We still have not got the monthly India data series (Rajasthan) for rainfall (and if possible also humidity, and temperature) to continue our work on remote sensing and epidemic forecasting there. You mentioned that you tried too to get these data too without result. In case you have been successful recently, we would be very interested! Alternatively, maybe the monsoon anomaly maps (per year) which Poona appears to release, might be useful too. Again, if you have any suggestions, we would be very obliged. Hope your work is going well, and look forward to meeting again in the future. Best wishes, Menno Bouma 2997. 1997-02-21 08:24:01 ______________________________________________________ cc: Tom Holt , Mike Hulme date: Fri, 21 Feb 1997 08:24:01 -0000 from: Mick Kelly subject: Re: Use of Unified Model to: Nick Brooks Dear Nick Use of Unified Model in principle might be fine but you should be aware, and think seriously, about the fact that I doubt it's actually going to be of any use for your work because of the difficulties involved in using it. That's why I've never pushed it as an option for you. You're going to have to work hard to convince the panel it's a reasonable move. So start thinking now about the logistics of using it. One problem, for example, is that the model is not set up to do the kind of experiments you want to do so you'll have to alter the model most likely at the source code level. With GBP20K of funding to support Wan's project and three month's training in Bracknell for him, Tom and I have said we will not attempt to alter the source code of the model because we regard it as beyond our immediate capabilities without time working with the unmodified model. You need to do this, test the result and run the resulting experiments all by the summer's end to meet the panel's deadline. The second problem you will have is that you need to get time on a decent computer to run the UM in climate experiments. This will cost money that CRU won't put up, Maybe you can arrange it through UGAMP? Finally, you need to figure out how you are going to get technical support for the model. Bracknell won't give this to you directly so you'll have to, again, get UGAMP backing. Tom and I, with TDD's approval, won't support any other CRU UM user for the next 12 months at least other than Wan till we're sure the UM is 'usable'. Think seriously about all this because my feeling is that, if you see the UM as an alternative to the NASA modelling option, then we have a problem. The reason I'm pushing you over this - and will continue to do so! - is because we have to have a cast-iron justification at the next supervision meeting for the main thrust of your thesis and, if there are any remaining uncertainties, then we will most likely go back to the original plot. So - get organising! Cheers Mick __________________________________________ Mick Kelly Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK Tel: 1603 592722 Fax: 1603 507784 Email: m.kelly@uea.ac.uk Web: http:/www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ __________________________________________ 1380. 1997-02-24 13:34:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 24 Feb 1997 13:34:36 -0000 from: bigal@paston.co.uk subject: Smith's to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk 1. Yes to your "Boxall" slot. The Robinson home-group is on duty, and they would probably appreciate help on the missionary angle. (Tel.700303). Do please help them to beware, however, the "bunging down" of 15 different missionary requests, from which we have recently suffered. Try to make something coherent out of it all. I hope I have done right to slightly steer clear of the "as the waters cover the sea" tone to most mission services. My guess is that Simon on Jonah 2 will direct us much more to God than to heroic mission culture. 2. Smith's. At the moment 1 and 8 June are both free. I have a slight preference for 1, but only because it is equidistant between two other more unusual services. I shall assume 1. The rota will be put together in the next few weeks, so I'd appreciate confirmation. Alan Strange 3933. 1997-02-25 18:14:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 25 Feb 1997 18:14:42 +0000 (GMT) from: J Mitchell subject: Re: IPCC scenario team to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) > > John, > > I have had an approach from IIASA (Nakicenovic and Gruebler) to join the > writing team for the new IPCC emissions scenarios for the 2000 IPCC > assessment (see email below). They seem to want someone who has a grasp of > what GCM'ers, and simple modellers, might need/use with regard to designing > different forcings for climate change simulations. While I have some idea > about how we have used such scenarios in Tom's model (MAGICC), I only have a > sketchy idea about what your sort of requirements might be (especially in > regard to sulphur) Hi Mike I have a responsibility in CLIVAR to guide forcing scenarios - CLIVAR is more interested in science but I think recognises that it must be seen to cooperate with IPCC. I think the best way is for modellers to use simple scenarios which bracket the range of interest, but there is political pressure to do actual scenarios. Big centres may do both. I don't want to get involved in any more committees, but i will help where I have time John > > I would be prepared to accept the invitation but only if I was sure I could > adequately represent the sort of viewpoint on these questions which GCM'ers > may have. What would your advice be? Does this require someone else to do > the job properly (if so is there anyone in Hadley who could be appropriated) > or are your concerns fairly general and therefore ones that I could > adequately represent in the report/writing process? I don't want to end up > trying to (mis?)represent views which some climate modellers may hold very > strongly. > > The sort of questions I imagine to be important are: > > 1) are GCM-based simulations going to make use of detailed scenario data, or > more likely use generalised appoximations such as 0.5% or 1% p.a. CO2 > equivalent? Hard to answer. Off the top of my head, I would prefer simple scenarios as you sugggest for scientific purposes and one or so stabilization scenarios. In practice, I think we and places like Hamburg might run some "real" scenarios > 2) what priorities are GCM'ers likely to have in the future: middle of the > road scenarios, high scenarios, low scenarios or stabilisation scenarios? Ideally, as few as we can cover the range with. > 3) what range of gas species would a GCM forcing scenario potentially use > (now and in 3 years time)? For example, we can cope with CO2 O3 N2O CH4 CFC11,12. > 4) what spatial disaggregation is necessary (for S and for GHGs)? Emissions or concentrations? > Some of these questions were mentioned in the IPCC Climate Scenario > Taskgroup and some are pertinent to the use of scaling methods etc. > > Thanks for your advice on this one. > > Mike > > > ____________________________________________________________________ > Mike > > I write to you to find out your interest in participating in the > writing team for the development of a new set of IPCC emissions > scenarios (convening lead author: N. Nakicenovic from IIASA). > > I feel it would be very important to involve you as representative > of the climate modelers, i.e. an important user community of such > scenarios. Unfortunately, the time frame of the work suggested by > Bob and Eric is near infeasible: they want the special report go to > expert review by mid-1998, which leaves about one year for the > development of scenarios. Please let me know if you see any chance > at all for participating actively in this important activity. > > As a kind of example of the inputs expected from you let me address > another small request. > > I have been asked to draft a short (3 page) discussion paper on > sulfur emissions and their role in the new round of scenarios. > I would be interested to get your advice what would be an: > > 1. ideal set of sulfur emissions > and > 2. an absolute minimum set of sulfur emissions > > you would expect from emission scenarios that are useful inputs to > simple and (lateron) also complex climate models (e.g. time periods, > spatial resolution, disaggregation by source, range of emissions > etc.). > > I have a good grasp what is possible in terms of energy sector > models. However, considering that sulfur is only one (although > important) gas species, it is important to define the requirements > on the scenarios not in terms what would be possible under ideal > conditions (i.e. ample of time and money), but rather what is the > minimum output requirements for the scenarios still to be useful. > Obviously, in light of recent findings what the new scenarios should > consider more explicitly are more vigorous sulfur control scenarios. > Suggestions are most welcome. > Reference to the IS92 series would also be helful for this assessment as > well. > > Many thanks in advance for your help. I hope it will be possible for > you to come on board this effort! > > Bets regards, Arnulf. > > 3070. 1997-02-28 10:39:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 28 Feb 1997 10:39:59 +0000 (GMT) from: "N.W.Arnell" subject: Re: thresholds paper.. to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) Mike, How likely is tolerable climate change... I think this is a very good - and revealing - paper. I like the approach taken, and methods proposed. My comments fall into two areas. 1. Signal/noise ratios and defining climate change scenarios I very much like the comparison of 30-year time slices from the HADCM2 transient run. This is exactly the sort of information I was seeking at the DoE Global meeting. Have you done it for other seasons, or for months or locations? I guess the problem is even worse with decades! The variability you show emphasises the dangers of simply comparing two n-year periods or, more worringly, comparing results from scenarios based on different periods (eg rescaled 2080s compared to 2020s). The only solution appears to lie in the use of ensembles... I'm not so concerned about the similarities (or otherwise) between future changes and past n-year variability. In practice, most impact assessments use (or should use) a well-defined baseline period, and it is change relative to that which is important, even if it is small (but systematic). Managers are planning for the future, not the past, although an idea of future vs past variability would give them some clues about their ability to manage future changes. One significant point that you have highlighted, however, is that changes in estimated system performance due to climate change may be of a similar magnitude to changes which appear simply because different data periods are used (as a footnote, water companies in Britain are currently reviewing their system yields, supposedly using consistent baseline data - they are in for some surprises!!). 2. Identification of critical thresholds Although thresholds appear attractive in water management and are reasonably easy to define (eg implementation of a hosepipe ban / water level in a reservoir below 10% of usable storage...), it can be very difficult to work out or generalise the risk of them being exceeded. In water resources terms, for example, it is not just summer temperature and precipitation that is important, but rather the state of storages at the beginning of the summer season: these are an integration, in Britain, of climate over winter. Unfortunately, the winter-end/summer start storage can depend very much on how climate was distributed over winter. It is not just the rainfall total that is important, but also (although probably to a lesser extent) how it was distributed over the winter. A full assessment of the risk of threshold exceedance would therefore be multivariate, with axes defining, for example, cumulative winter net rainfall, the distribution of that rainfall through winter (eg December total as % of the DJF total??), summer precipitation and summer temperature. The "danger zone" would be multi-dimensional. ...but this is a quibble, and perhaps reflects problems peculiar to the water system, which is by nature integrative over time. I promised Ferenc Toth that I would prepare a paper on thresholds and water - even though I had to withdraw from the workshop at the last minute....! - and I am attempting to work some of these issues up. I will try to include some numerical examples. I'll let you see a draft once I have made some proper progress. Regards Nigel Arnell 2503. 1997-03-03 14:40:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 3 Mar 1997 14:40:25 -0000 from: bigal@paston.co.uk subject: Re: Fall out from Sub-group meeting to: Mike Hulme At 19:42 27/02/97 +0000, you wrote: >At 10:47 27/02/97 -0000, you wrote: > >I am not confident about recommending Rosie to preach (and I guess she would >say no anyway), but it's an interesting idea. She is a good speaker at >small/medium groups (I had good feedback from her Coffee Plus talk >yesterday). I think it best to stick to a morning 5 minute input, in which >I will try to ask a couple of searching questions about how Christ crosses >cultural differences and how her 5 years in Zimbabwe has altered her view of >Christian Mission in the 1990s. > >Mike > >1. Great - I'll leave you to fix that up with her. >2. Without being worried, I do just want to check that you're going to be OK after APCM. I know you've felt bruised, and I'm sure you need time to get past that, but I don't want you to feel without a "place". As your workload increases, you are going to need some times when you just sit back and absorb, and I'm delighted if we can be that sort of place for you. Nonetheless, what you are doing may well make you frustrated with the "World church" issues, and I want you to feel an open permission from me to walk into anything I/we are up to and tell us how we can do it better: I shan't in the least feel "What's *he* doing here?". I'm also concerned not to lose your gifts from the church and I take it that even busy people still need to offer service of some kind, if they are to grow. I've booked to talk to you in September, but I want to make sure we get there safely! I want to be sure that Trinity will continue to be a place of nurture, growth and challenge for you even the other side of Mission co-ordinator. If there is anything I can do to assist that, please talk to me. Alan Strange 1554. 1997-03-05 16:42:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 5 Mar 97 16:42:10 EST from: drdendro@lamont.ldgo.columbia.edu (edward cook) subject: The devil ... to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Hi Keith, The devil made me do it. I have nominated you for a LDEO Climate Center visiting Climate Scholar. If it comes about, you can of course tell them (me) to get stuffed! I really think that there would be keen interest here on your work. Cheers, Ed P.S. Here is my message to Broecker's secretary: Hi Moanna, Sorry for not responding on that. Bob Dickson would be fine. My nomination for a CC visitor in the future is Keith Briffa from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. He is doing some very interesting work with multi-millennial tree-ring records covering much of the Holocene and is working on understanding the cause(s) of a very large-scale change in the response of trees to climate (e.g. over most of Siberia) that has resulted in an anomalous divergence between temperature and tree rings since ca. 1950. Cheers, Ed PP.SS. Any more luck with the Kalman files? 3416. 1997-03-05 17:31:47 ______________________________________________________ cc: malcolm@larva.forestry.utoronto.ca date: Wed, 05 Mar 1997 17:31:47 -0500 from: Adam Markham subject: Arctic warming to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Greetings, I did get your paper the other day, and promise to look at it in the next few. Have you heard that we are trying to put together a meeting on rates of change with RIVM? Rik and Rob Swart came up with the idea, and we will co-sponsor if it comes off. It would be great to get you involved. A couple of questions meanwhile though. I have to help Prince Philip give an Anchorage press conference on climate change in the Arctic on March 18. I then have to go and do some briefing of Dutch press at Resolute Bay (74N) in what ued to be the North West Territories, but I think is now Nunavut. Both are very interesting opportunities that I'm quite excited about. However, I expect pretty hostile questions at the Anchorage briefing, becaue the press is conservative there, its too damn cold anyway, and 85% of the state's economy is oil. Therefore, do you have any recent, useful updates on warming signals in the Arctic, trends, ice melt or other juicy tidbits? Anything to fend off the naysayers. We hope to have Gunter Weller (director of the Centre for global chnage at the University of Alaska there also, but they depend on oil money for their research). Cheers, Adam 1390. 1997-03-06 14:40:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 6 Mar 97 14:40:15 +0000 (KRS) from: Eugene Vaganov subject: from Vaganov to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk 06.03.97 fAJL partid.txt 2.1 CO 2.2 Professor 2.3 Head of Group 2.4 M 2.5 Fritz 2.6 2.7 Schweingruber 2.8.1 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research 2.8.2 Department of Ecology 2.8.3 Forest and Climate Research Unit 2.9 2.10 Zuercherstrasse 111 2.11 2.12 8903 2.13 Birmensdorf 2.14 CH 2.15 41 1 7392281 2.16 41 1 7392215 2.17 fritz.schweingruber@wsl.ch 2.18 1 2.19 6000 2.20 0 2.21 2000 2.22 3000 2.23 0 2.24 1000 2.26 0 2.1 CR 2.2 Doctor of Philosophy 2.3 Senior Research Associate 2.4 M 2.5 Keith 2.6 2.7 Briffa 2.8.1 University of East Anglia 2.8.2 School of Environmental Sciences 2.8.3 Climatic Research Unit 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 NR4 7TJ 2.13 Norwich 2.14 GB 2.15 44 1603 592090 2.16 44 1603 507784 2.17 k.briffa@uea.ac.uk 2.18 2 2.19 6,000 2.20 0 2.21 2,000 2.22 4,000 2.23 0 2.24 0 2.25 0 2.1 CR 2.2 Doctor of Biological Sciences 2.3 Head of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology 2.4 M 2.5 Stepan 2.6 Grigor'evich 2.7 Shiyatov 2.8.1 Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology 2.8.2 2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology 2.9 Ural Branch RAS 2.10 8 Marta Street 202 2.11 2.12 620144 2.13 Ekaterinburg 2.14 RU 2.15 7 3432 294080 2.16 7 3432 294161 2.17 plant@insec.quorus.e-burg.su 2.18 3 2.19 24000 2.20 12000 2.21 1300 2.22 4700 2.23 0 2.24 1000 2.25 5000 2.1 CR 2.2 Doctor of Biological Sciences 2.3 Director of Forest Institute 2.4 M 2.5 Evgeny 2.6 Alexandrovich 2.7 Vaganov 2.8.1 Institute of Forest 2.8.2 2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology 2.9 Siberian Branch RAS 2.10 2.11 2.12 660036 2.13 Krasnoyarsk 2.14 RU 2.15 7 3912 431429 2.16 7 3912 433686 2.17 evag@ifor.krasnoyarsk.su 2.18 3 2.19 24000 2.20 12000 2.21 1300 2.22 4700 2.23 0 2.24 1000 2.25 5000 fAJL power.txt "MULTI-MILLENNIAL-LENGTH DENDROCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONS AT HIGH-LATITUDE REGIONS OF SIBERIA". By signing this declaration, I certify that the information given in this proposal relating to me and the team I represent is to the best of my knowledge true and complete. I have been involved in the preparation of the full proposal and I agree with its contents. I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I represent to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and obligations assigned to us in this research proposal, if selected. I hereby authorise the co-ordinator as lawful attorney and administrator and empower him to act all of the necessary actions to administrate validly the herein said rights on behalf of me in case the proposal should be selected by INTAS, inter alia, to negotiate and to conclude the co-operation agreement, as well as any amendments, variations or additions to the co-operation agreement on my behalf. Laboratory of Dendrochronology Institute of Forest SB RAS Krasnoyarsk Dr.Eugene A.Vaganov 5 March, 1997 fAJL projid.txt 1.1 Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions at high-latitude regions of Siberia. 1.2 5 1.3 600 1.4 36 1.5 Oct-97 1.6 4 1.7 60000 By signing this proposal, I certify that the information given in this proposal is the best of my knowledge, true and complete as received from all project participants; that all participants were involved in the preparation, agree with this project proposal and have declared themselves ready to perform the project as proposed in case of selection. I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I represent to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and obligations assigned to us in this research proposal and I am ready to act as the co-ordinator of the project. The proposal contains ..... pages. PROJECT CO-ORDINATOR First name and family name: Fritz Schweingruber Date: ..... March,1997 Original signature: fAJL sum.txt 4.1. TITLE OF THE PROJECT Multi-millennial-length dendroclimaticreconstructions at high-latitude regions of Siberia 4.2. SUMMARY This research will make a major contribution to our knowledge of high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique potential of tree-ring data. The specific objectives of this proposal are the development of two supra-long (each spanning 6-9000 years up to present) continuous larch ring-width chronologies at two distant each other high-latitude locations of Siberia (Yamal and Taimyr peninsulas). Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous trees growing at the polar timberline in Siberia contain a very strong climatic signal, mainly summer air temperatures. With these chronologies high-resolution continuous and quantitative reconstruction of summer temperatures will be made. As in the areas of the past and present polar and upper timberlines trees megafossils have been preserved properly in large quantities in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine and peat), there is a good possibility to develop continuous, multi-millennial tree-ring chronologies. Now the material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil wood samples from Yamal and 280 samples from Taimyr) has yielded the ring-width chronologies continuously spanning the last 3200 years (Yamal) and 950 years (Taimyr). However, there are also many more samples that have been measured and have provided data, now assembled in a number of provisionally "floating" chronologies covering much of the period from 7000 to 1700 B.C. (based on some 70 radiocarbon dates of samples of this wood). There is a fair chance that a 6-9000-year continuous chronologies will be constructed within the span of the proposed project. These chronologies and temperature reconstructions will be the first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare and contrast the details of temperature changes at the moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability patterns of pre-industrial era. Participants of the proposed project are the well-known institutions which are engaged in the field of dendrochronology and dendroclimatology and have collaborated with each other during the last 6 years. fAJL workpro.txt 3.1 TITLE Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions at high-latitude regions of Siberia 3.2 OBJECTIVES This research will make a major contribution to our knoweledge of high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique potential of tree-ring data. The specific objectives of this proposal are as follows: - to develop two supra-long (each spanning 6-9000 years up to present) continuous ring-width larch chronologies at two high-latitude locations of Siberia; - using these tree-ring chronologies, tomake a multi-millennial high-resolution continuous and quantitative reconstruction of summer temperatures; - to analyse spatio-temporal patterns of temperature variability at these locations over a range of timescales (annual, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial) and their connections with various forcing factors and other annual resolution records being developed elsewhere in the Arctic and Subarctic. 3.3. BACKGROUND Reconstruction and analysis of natural climatic changes through the whole Holocene at high latitudes are of great importance as climatic conditions, especially air temperature, are most variable and sensitive to various forcing functions (Budyko, 1980; Jones and Kelly, 1983; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1990). However, there are a minute quantity of long, precisely-dated and high-resolution proxy climatic series for these regions. The territory of Yamal Peninsula located on the eastern boundary of influence of the Atlantic air masses and the territory of the eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula located between the Arctic High and Siberian High are of major importance for monitoring regional and global-mean air temperatures and assessing theories and models concerned with past, current and future climate changes (Lamb, 1977; Briffa and Jones, 1993; Moses et al., 1987). Tree rings as a proxy indicator of the past climatic conditions are of special interest as they allow to reconstruct climatic parameters with seasonal and annual resolution for many hundred and thousand years, to provide an exact absolute and relative dating of the tree-ring data, to establish high-frequency climate changes (from interannual to centennial timescales) with high confidence, to obtain dendroclimatic information practically for every site where trees grow at present or grew in the past. Intensive dendroclimatic investigations are carrying out in many countries and regions, mainly in temperate and subtropic zones (Fritts, 1976, 1991 ). At high latitudes such works began later (during the last two decades) and living trees were used primarily for developing tree-ring chronologies of 200-500 years long (Aniol and Eckstein, 1984; Shiyatov, 1984, 1986; Jacoby and D'Arrigo, 1989; Schweingruber, Briffa and Nogler, 1993; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Vaganov,1996; Jacoby, Wiles, D'Arrigo, 1996; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996). As in the areas of the past and present polar and upper timberlines trees megafossils have been preserved properly in large quantities on the surface and in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine and peat), there is a possibility to develop continuous, multi-millennium and sensitive to climate tree-ring chronologies. Such works began in the Polar Ural Mountains (Shiyatov, 1986; Graybill and Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Cook, 1995), in the southern part of Yamal Peninsula (Shiyatov, Surkov, 1980; Hantemirov, 1995), in Finnish Lapland and Northern Sweden (Zetterberg, Eronen and Briffa, 1995), in the eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula (Vaganov, Naurazbaev, Schweingruber and Briffa, in press) and in the Lower Indigirka River at present. Now the longest, continuous and absolute-dated ring-width chronologies developed for the Yamal Peninsula (spanning 3200 years) and for the Northern Scandinavia (spanning 2160 years) and the "floating" chronologies dated by the radiocarbon method extended back 9500 and over 7000 years respectively. Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous trees growing at the polar timberline in moderate-continental and continental regions of Siberia contain a very strong climatic signal, mainly summer air temperatures of tree growth year (Graybill and Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Cook, 1995; Hantemirov, 1995; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996).The explained variance over the calibration and verification periods is highest reported in the literature to date (65-70%) and it allows to make a quantitative reconstructions of summer temperatures. These chronologies and temperature reconstructions will be the first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare and contrast the details of temperature changes at the moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability patterns of pre-industrial era. Participants of the proposed project are the well-known institutions which are engaged in the field of dendrochronology and dendroclimatology and have collaborated with each other during the last 6 years. - The Group of Tree-Ring and Site of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Birmensdorf, Switzerland). The Group is currently engaged on a major programme of densitometric and ring-width chronology development involving many sites across the whole of the Northern Hemisphere including sites with living trees in the polar timberline area of Russia. This work is specifically designed to provide climatically-sensitive data for use in large spatial climate reconstruction work. Dr. F.H.Schweingruber, Head of the Group, is known throughout the world for his work in wood anatomy and dendrochronology and the development of tree-ring densitometry. He has published extensively in different areas of wood anatomy and tree-growth research and has authored several classic books. - The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ekaterinburg, Russia is one of the leading laboratory in the field of dendrochronology in Russia. The Laboratory has an international reputation for its work on the developing ring-width chronologies at high latitudes and altitudes, reconstruction of climatic conditions, developing long-term chronologies, studying cycles in tree-ring series, using tree-ring data for studies of the upper and polar timberlines dynamics and forest succession. Dr. S.G.Shiyatov, Head of the Laboratory, is one of the pioneers of dendrochronology in Russia and has worked for more than 30 years in the Far North and mountains of the Urals, Siberia, Far East and Middle Asia. He has published more than 130 articles and three monographs. Dr. Shiyatov was the first who began to collect subfossil wood in Russia for developing long-term chronologies. - The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Forest of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia is another leading laboratory in the field of dendrochronology in Russia. Dr. E.A.Vaganov, Director of the Institute of Forest and Head of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology, has an international reputation for his work on the cell structure of wood lyers of coniferous trees, seasonal growth variations and cambium activity, developing simulation models of seasonal tree growth, developing ring-width and cell chronologies, reconstructing climatic conditions of the past using tree-ring chronologies. He has published more than 100 articles and 5 monographs. - The Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, Great Britain is one of the world's leading research organisation specialising in the study of climate change: climate history, current climates, projected changes and impacts. Dr. K.R.Briffa, Senior Research Associate at the Climatic Research Unit, has considerable experience in climatology and with the use of statistical methods of climate analyses and dendroclimatic reconstruction, especially with regard to large-spatial-scale reconstructions of climate patterns and published many articles on the theoretical and practical aspects of dendrochronology and dendroclimatology, and on use of paleoclimate data for understanding current and possible future climates. 3.4 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION 3.4.1. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES Tree-ring data will be obtained from living trees and subfossil wood of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) in western Siberia and Gmelini larch (Larix Gmelini Pilger) in central Siberia. The first location is situated in the southern part of Yamal Peninsula (67-688N, 69-718E), the second location in the eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula (71-738N, 98-1058E). There is a great many properly preserved subfossil wood in the Holocene deposits at both locations, mainly in the alluvial and peat deposits. The main variable measured will be ring width. This variable reflects properly climate influences on tree growth at the polar timberline areas of Siberia having a continental climate. Ring-width chronologies for the last 400-500 years will be developed from the oldest living trees. Extensions to these chronologies back further in time will be made by using subfossil material, joined with the living material by standard crossdating procedures. High-precision radiocarbon dates will be used for rough dating of "floating" tree-ring chronologies. The sampling subfossil wood and development of the Yamal's supra-long chronology began since 1982 by the workers of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology (Ekaterinburg). Most intensively this work was carried out during the last five years. Now the material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil wood cuts) has yielded the ring-width chronology continuously spanning the last 3200 years. However, there are also many more samples that have been measured and have provided data, now assembled in a number of provisionally "floating" chronologies covering much of the period from 7000 to 1700 B.C. (based on some 45 radiocarbon dates of samples of this wood). These chronologies separated by 50 to 500 year length gaps. There is a fair chance that a 9000-year continuous chronology will be constructed for this location within the span of the proposed project. Similarly, work with a shorter history than the Yamal's research has clearly established potential to build a chronology at least as long in the Taimyr Peninsula where the modern polar timberline extends to about 72830'N, most northern over the world. This work is not so advanced as in Yamal, but the work to date suggests that very rapid progress is likely. Samples from living and dead trees have already been assembled at the Laboratory of Dendrochronology (Krasnoyarsk) into the 950-year continuous chronology. The collections from this location are not so extensive as those made to date at Yamal (280 subfossil wood samples), but there is an abundant supply of subfossil trees, many with over 300 annual rings. 25 radiocarbon dates of samples of this material suggest major phases of tree growth around 8500 B.P. and 5000 B.P. The general distribution of the radiocarbon dates suggests that, eventually, sufficient trees can probably be located to span the whole of the last 10000 years. It is not expected that a continuous 10000-year ring-width chronology will be produced within timeframe of this project. However, there are good prospects of producing a 5-6000- year chronology to the present. 3.4.2 RESEARCH RESULTS During three years we expect to develop the continuous and good-replicated tree-ring 9000-year larch chronology for the Yamal Peninsula and the 5-6000-year larch chronology for the Taimyr Peninsula. Using these chronologies we intend to reconstruct and analyse a summer temperature variation at several time scales (annual, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial) and compare the data obtained with other high-resolution Holocene-length proxy data (ice cores, laminated sediments, historical documents). The results of this project will be published primarily in the scientific literature in Russian and English and presented at different national and international conferences. Because of the fundamental interdisciplinarity and collaborative interaction within the subgroups, a number of multi-authored papers will be produced. The individual and mean ring-width chronologies and the reconstructions produced will be distributed to the international scientific community through submission to the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (Boulder, Colorado, USA) and to other national and international institutions and data centres. 3.5 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION 3.5.1 TASK DIVISION Dr F.H.Schweingruber (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) will be the project co-ordinator on the proposed project from the INTAS countries. Dr S.G.Shiyatov (Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology) will be the responsible scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in collecting, dating, developing and analysing the multi-millennial ring-width chronology at the area of Yamal Peninsula. The next young scientists of the Institute will be involved in the project: Rashit M. Hantemirov, Candidate of Biological Sciences, 34 years old. He will take part in collecting, cross-dating and analysing the material. Alexander Yu. Surkov, technician, 30 years old. He will take part in collecting, preparing and measuring the subfossil wood samples. Dr E.A.Vaganov (Institute of Forest) will be the responsible scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in collecting, dating, developing and analysing the multi-millennial ring-width chronology at the area of Taimyr Peninsula. The next young scientists will be involved in the project: Mukhtar M. Naurazbaev, junior research fellow,35 years old. He will take part in collecting, preparing, measuring, cross- dating and analysing the material. Alexander V.Kirdyanov, post-graduate, 25 years old. He will take part in data processing, density measurements, chronology analysis. Dmitry V.Ovchinnikov, post-graduate, 26 years old. He will take part in cross-dating, data processing, chronology analysis. Dr K.R.Briffa (Climatic Research Unit) will be the responsible scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in analysing growth-climate relationships, developing statistical models of tree growth, extracting climatic signal, reconstructing and analysing climatic conditions of the remote past. 3.5.2 PLANNING To carry-out the objectives of this proposal the workers of the Russian laboratories will carry out an intensive collecting subfossil wood during summers of 1997-1998 at two high-latitude locations (Yamal and Taimyr peninsulas) using helicopters, boats and ships. To finish the development of the Yamal chronology it is necessary to collect additionally no less than 300-400 cuts of subfossil wood. Much more intensive collecting (600-800 cuts for two field seasons) is needed to develop the Taimyr chronology. All samples collected during these two years and earlier will be measured and cross-dated at Ekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk laboratories until the middle of 1999. The Russian laboratories together with the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia during 1997-1999 will be analysing the material obtained (standardization of individual series, development of mean chronologies, studying growth-climate relationships, developing statistical models of tree growth, extracting climatic signal, reconstructing and analysing climatic conditions of the remote past). This work will be finished at the end of 1999. 3.5.3 EQUIPMENT Participants of the proposed project have the necessary equipment for fieldwork, measuring equipment and compatible software. 3.5.4 SCIENTIFIC REFERENCES Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G. and Cook, E.R. Unusual twentieth-century summer warmth in a 1,000-year temperature record from Siberia. Nature, 1995, Vol. 376, 13 July, 156-159. Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G., Vaganov, E.A. Development of a North Eurasian chronology network: Rationale and preliminary results of comparative ring-width and densitimetric analyses in Northern Russia. Radiocarbon, 1996, 25-41. Hantemirov, R.M. A 2,305 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean June-July temperature deviations in the Yamal Peninsula. Publication of the Academy of Finland,1995, 6, 124-127. Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S., Vaganov, E.A., Schweingruber, F.H. Summer temperature variations reconstructed by tree-ring Data at the polar timberline in Siberia. Radiocarbon, 1996, 61-70. Vaganov, E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S. Dendroclimatic Study in Ural-Siberian Subarctic. Novosibirsk: "Nauka", Siberian Publishing Firm RAS, 1996, 246 pp. (in Russian). 2738. 1997-03-19 11:36:02 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 19 Mar 1997 11:36:02 +0200 (SAST) from: Dave Le Sueur subject: Re: Highland Malaria (fwd) to: Mike Hulme Dear Mike The funds have been approved by IDRC. We will thus need your bank details sothat we can transfer the funds. They will probably only be deposited in our account by 1April. Do you need some kind of basic agreement? We will be liable for accounting for expenditure so we will need an audited statement from you to submit with our overall report by July 1998. I would be interested in what value you think such a "surface" will have to other sectors in that they will: a) Reflect a more recent mean b) Will encapsulate the variation around the mean. The need and value within malaria is very clear...but if we can come up with some other clear application which illustrate the generic value of these, then I would like to approach IDRC or another Agency (NOAA, FAO, WHO) about producing this in CD format and making it widely available?? Sy Hi to Mark and sorry about the delay but I'm sure you're familiar with these when it comes to funding! Regards Dave Dr David le Sueur T H AL LY Senior Specialist Scientist I TI National Malaria Research Programme N A Medical Research Council K University of Natal S Medical School Campus P PO Box 17120, Congella Tel 27 31 251481 4013 South Africa Fax 27 31 258840 www.malaria.org.za www.mara.org.za www.arma.org.za 3255. 1997-03-21 13:01:21 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Mar 21 13:01:21 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Recent Results of EC's Climate Research to: Marina.VEREERTBRUGGHEN@DG12.cec.be At 17:41 20/03/97 +0100, you wrote: >Dear Dr. Briffa, > >Thanks for your fax of today and the enclosures. I would appreciate very much if you yourself could send me a text of a few lines concerning the important results, which could be incorporated in the above mentioned document. > >Yours sincerely, > >Anver GHAZI > Dear Anver, Please see below a suggested piece of text that could be included in Section 1.4 (Past Climates), probably directly following "..disentangle human-induced changes from the natural variability." ADVANCE-10K (Analysis of Dendrochronological Variability and Associated Climates in Eurasia : the last 10,000 years) is drawing together existing tree-ring data at high and middle latitudes and developing a new network of densitometric tree-ring chronologies across northern Fennoscandia and Russia. Detailed year-by-year maps of summer temperatures have been produced over hundreds of years and long reconstructions at several sites with subfossil wood remains, extend back over millennia. These data provide unique insight into high-resolution and longer timescales of past climate variability. They show the influence of large volcanic eruptions. They also suggest that tree growth rates have progressively increased over the last two centuries but this trend reversed abruptly and dramatically several decades ago - both phenomena likely being associated with different anthropogenic influences, as yet unproven. I hope this is of some use. I envisage that the papers describing the results alluded to above will cause quite a stir when they are produced . We hope to get these done and submitted over the next few months (EC reports permitting!). with very best wishes Keith 894. 1997-04-01 13:26:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 1 Apr 1997 13:26:01 -0500 (EST) from: ray bradley subject: standardisation to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Hiya Keef: Hope you survived the journey back from Cape Town. I hear you got hit with a large bill at the hotel...maybe you covered my bar bill which did not appear on my statement!!! Could you look over this section which I propose to add to my book, dealing with the problems of standardisation.....& let me know if I got it wrong...(The proposed Figures 10.9-10.11 are Figs 2- 4 from your Climate Dynamics paper)...All comments would be appreciated. I've enjoyed reading your papers on this & other matters.... ".......It is clear that this standardization procedure is not easy to apply and may actually remove important low-frequency climatic information. It is not possible, a priori, to decide if part of the long-term change in ring width is due to a coincident climatic trend. The problem is exacerbated if one is attempting to construct a long-term dendrochronological record, when only tree fragments or historical timbers are available and the corresponding growth function may not be apparent. ***added*** The consequences of different approaches to standardisation are well illustrated by the studies of long tree-ring series (Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris) from northern Fennoscandia by Briffa et al. (1990, 1992). In order to produce a long dendroclimatic reconstruction extending over 1500 years, Briffa et al. (1990) constructed a composite chronology made up of many overlapping cores which varied in their individual length, from less than 100 to more than 200 years (Figure 10.9). In the shorter segments, the growth function is significant over the entire segment length, but in longer segments the growth factor becomes less significant (cf Figure 10.7, upper panel). In Briffa et al. (1990) each segment was standardised individually (the procedure used in almost all dendroclimatic studies) in this case by the use of a spline function which retains variance at periods less than ~2/3 of the record length. Thus, in a 100 year segment, variance at periods >66 years would be lost whereas in a 300 year segment, variance at periods up to 200 years would be retained. All standardised cores were then averaged together, producing the record shown in Figure 10.10c. This shows considerable interannual to decadal scale variability, but little long-term, low frequency variability. In fact, since the mean segment length varies over time (Figure 10. 9) so too will the low frequency variance represented in the composite series. In Briffa et al. (1992) the standardisation procedure was revised by first aligning all core segments by their relative age, then averaging them (i.e. all values of the first year in each segment (t1) were averaged, then all values of t2 etc.... to tn.; this assumes that in each segment sampled, t1 was at (or very close to) the center [pith?] of the tree). The resulting 'regional curve' then provided a target for deriving a mean growth function which could be applied to all of the individual core segments, regardless of length (Figure 10.11). Averaging together the core segments, standardised in this way by the regional curve, produced the record shown in Figure 10.10b. This has far more low frequency information than the record produced from individually standardised cores (Figure 10.10c) and retains many of the characteristics seen in the original data. From this series, low growth from the late 1500s to the early 1800s is clearly seen, corresponding to other European records which record a "Little Ice Age" during this interval. Also seen is a period of enhanced growth from ~950-1100 A.D., during a period which Lamb (1965) characterised as the "Medieval Warm Epoch". It is apparent from a comparison of Figures 10.9b and 10.9c that any conclusions drawn about which were the warmest or coldest years and decades of the past can be greatly altered by the standardisation procedure employed. All of the high frequency variance of Figure 10.10c is still represented in the record produced by regional curve standardisation (Figure 10.10b) but potentially important climatic information at lower frequencies is also retained. The problem of extracting low frequency climatic information from long composite records made up of many individual short segments is addressed explicitly by Cook et al. (1995) who refer to this as the 'segment length curse'! Although it is of particular concern in dendroclimatology, it is in fact an important problem in all long-term paleoclimatic reconstructions which utilise limited duration records (e.g. historical data, composite coral records etc) yet it has received relatively little attention in the literature so far.****** 3626. 1997-04-04 14:26:42 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri Apr 4 14:26:42 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: from Rashit to: m.salmon@uea >To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk >Organization: ECOLOGY INSTITUTE >From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" >Date: Mon, 9 Dec 96 14:19:37 +0500 >Return-Receipt-To: tatm@insec.quorus.e-burg.su >Subject: from Rashit >Return-Receipt-To: tatm@insec.quorus.e-burg.su >Lines: 106 > >Dear Keith, >we received your letters concerning our paper for Dendrochronologia >and three long chronologies. >1. As regards individual ring width data of living trees from >Yamal we would remind you that you have them. Stepan gave to you >in England one diskette. There are data for Larix sibirica from >three sites (KHA - from Khadyta river, 67812'N 69850'E; JAH - >from Yahody river 67807'N 69854'E and POR - from Portsa river >67827'N 71800'E) and for Picea obovata from two points (SCH - >Shtshutshya river 66849'N 69850'E and KHD - from Khadyta river >67807'N 69854'E). >2. We would be very gratefull if you can do some corrections and >additions in the paper for Dendrochronologia. We did not quite >understand what we have to do on missing rings? Just enumerate >years when missing rings occur? If so, these are following years: > > Year absent % ind % Year absent % ind % >-1172 1 of 4 25% 51 700 2 of 8 25% 31 >-1171 1 of 4 25% 12 707 1 of 9 11% 31 >-1168 1 of 4 25% 13 718 1 of 8 13% 33 >-1142 1 of 5 20% 50 773 1 of 8 13% 38 >-1127 1 of 5 20% 15 777 1 of 9 11% 67 >-1126 1 of 5 20% 10 814 3 of 9 33% 12 >-1029 1 of 10 10% 57 816 3 of 9 33% 10 >-1021 1 of 10 10% 55 818 3 of 10 30% 14 > -988 1 of 10 10% 17 867 1 of 11 9% 34 > -987 1 of 10 10% 12 903 1 of 11 9% 12 > -986 2 of 10 20% 17 904 1 of 10 10% 30 > -971 1 of 12 8% 44 914 1 of 9 11% 25 > -969 1 of 12 8% 67 915 1 of 9 11% 61 > -964 1 of 12 8% 14 959 1 of 10 10% 59 > -899 1 of 10 10% 29 1006 1 of 12 8% 28 > -886 1 of 9 11% 42 1007 1 of 12 8% 28 > -882 4 of 9 44% 5 1170 2 of 12 17% 8 > -860 1 of 11 9% 20 1259 1 of 10 10% 28 > -823 2 of 8 25% 18 1270 1 of 11 9% 36 > -792 1 of 6 17% 15 1278 3 of 11 27% 15 > -547 2 of 5 40% 61 1290 1 of 10 10% 44 > -543 1 of 6 17% 91 1300 1 of 9 11% 18 > -318 1 of 5 20% 29 1302 1 of 9 11% 58 > -294 1 of 5 20% 66 1323 1 of 7 14% 18 > -292 1 of 6 17% 24 1334 1 of 8 13% 53 > -288 1 of 6 17% 61 1342 1 of 9 11% 8 > -287 2 of 6 33% 25 1347 1 of 9 11% 14 > -261 1 of 5 20% 30 1380 1 of 12 8% 38 > -248 1 of 5 20% 13 1453 5 of 13 38% 9 > -246 1 of 5 20% 25 1456 1 of 13 8% 20 > -241 1 of 5 20% 12 1460 1 of 13 8% 24 > -239 1 of 5 20% 25 1466 1 of 12 8% 30 > -139 2 of 7 29% 9 1529 2 of 7 29% 10 > -119 1 of 7 14% 14 1560 1 of 7 14% 6 living > -118 1 of 7 14% 11 1714 1 of 11 9% 49 1 of 16 6% > 16 1 of 8 13% 26 1718 73 1 of 16 6% > 49 1 of 9 11% 11 1730 45 1 of 20 5% > 134 1 of 22 5% 33 1732 28 2 of 20 10% > 143 4 of 21 19% 7 1739 3 of 9 33% 50 1 of 20 5% > 155 1 of 21 5% 54 1742 23 3 of 20 15% > 207 1 of 16 6% 54 1749 57 1 of 20 5% > 426 1 of 6 17% 19 1752 67 1 of 21 5% > 492 1 of 9 11% 19 1755 72 1 of 21 5% > 493 1 of 9 11% 16 1783 39 1 of 22 5% > 495 1 of 9 11% 16 1788 83 1 of 22 5% > 536 1 of 12 8% 38 1789 92 1 of 22 5% > 546 1 of 12 8% 12 1795 102 1 of 22 5% > 579 1 of 16 6% 41 1806 68 1 of 22 5% > 589 1 of 19 5% 31 1808 97 1 of 22 5% > 596 1 of 18 6% 22 1812 35 1 of 22 5% > 598 1 of 18 6% 51 1814 54 1 of 22 5% > 623 3 of 17 18% 6 1815 30 1 of 22 5% > 636 2 of 17 12% 32 1816 2 of 3 67% 2 16 of 22 73% > 637 4 of 17 24% 9 1817 33 1 of 22 5% > 639 3 of 17 18% 9 1818 3 of 3 100% 4 14 of 22 64% > 640 7 of 17 41% 7 1819 22 6 of 22 27% > 644 1 of 18 6% 22 1820 1 of 3 33% 9 12 of 22 55% > 646 2 of 18 11% 26 1824 1 of 3 33% 66 > l i v i n g > 1825 2 of 22 9% 38 > 1828 1 of 22 5% 47 > 1831 5 of 22 23% 28 > 1833 4 of 22 18% 31 > 1837 1 of 22 5% 49 > 1867 3 of 23 13% 21 > 1882 1 of 23 4% 39 > 1883 1 of 23 4% 50 > 1884 1 of 23 4% 29 > 1885 1 of 23 4% 28 > 1889 1 of 24 4% 20 > 1891 1 of 24 4% 32 > 1903 2 of 24 8% 46 > 1934 1 of 24 4% 45 > 1946 1 of 24 4% 46 > 1947 1 of 24 4% 40 > 1967 1 of 20 5% 102 > 1971 1 of 20 5% 50 > 1975 1 of 20 5% 40 > >We have to note that frequency of missing rings on increment >cores of living trees higher, because on samples of subfossil >trees we try to find this kind of rings on whole disc. >Some periods are notable for missing rings: 988-964 BC, 882 BC, >143 AD, 623-646 AD (especially 640 AD), 814-816-818 AD, 1453 AD >and beginning of 1800th AD. >3. Stepan ask what about book by Bailey? >Best wishes, >Rashit > > 2673. 1997-04-07 17:32:32 ______________________________________________________ cc: Keith Briffa date: 7 Apr 1997 17:32:32 -0600 from: Tom Wigley subject: Data to: Phil Jones Dear Phil, Thanks for your e-mail. You'll see from my later fax that some of what you said has been superceded. Your "Crete" and DF's "Crete" do NOT correlate as well as I think they should. Running correlation files are attached. Thanks for telling me that DF's Crete is actually his Central W Greenland (CWG). This doesn't resolve the puzzle, however. Your "Crete" should be made up of the same cores, so it isn't strictly Crete at all. Or DID you use the same cores? Are you just trying to confuse me? (Sucessfully!) In Fisher's paper, CWG is made up of A, B, C, D, H, Crete 74 and Milcent (his Table 1, cross-referenced to his Table 2). Note that this is only 7 cores (not 8 -- ???). From the mean/SD Table you sent, it is clear that core 8 is Milcent, because it is at a much lower elevation than the others (hence less negative de1O18). What are the other 7? I suspect you may have included data from core "G" as well as the ones used by DF. The divide must run very close to G and H. If there is a difference between G and H, then including G could explain why the PDJ and DF series differ. If the extra core you have used (whether it is G or not) is long, then this means that, when you have 3 cores (1176-1621) DF may only have 2. Most big discrepancies in terms of correlations are earlier than 1621. I hope you can clarify this for me. On another matter, could you please send me Trausti's Icelandic temperature time series, monthly values. Astrid says you have the latest version. I need it for finalizing some analyses with Astrid's sea ice record. I'm copying this to Keith. Cheers, Tom <<<<<< Attached TEXT file named "R-2CRETE.ALL" follows >>>>>> APRIL 7, 1997 RUNNING CORRELATIONS BETWEEN PDJ AND DF 'CRETE', CENTRED OUTPUT NOTE : FROM 1051 & EARLIER, ONLY ONE CORE (REAL CRETE PRESUMABLY). CORRELATIONS FROM 1046.5 & EARLIER SHOULD BE 1.0, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF ROUNDOFF ERRORS DURING MY RE-NORMALIZATION OF THE DATA. INTERVAL 10 30 50 100YEARS MIDYEAR CORREL CORREL CORREL CORREL 1977.5 .952062 1976.5 .951308 1975.5 .940575 1974.5 .936743 1973.5 .930825 1972.5 .786260 1971.5 .513144 1970.5 .230721 1969.5 .329244 1968.5 .496684 1967.5 .470337 .807392 1966.5 .346948 .807684 1965.5 .438445 .802159 1964.5 .591716 .802094 1963.5 .818178 .838576 1962.5 .928774 .837014 1961.5 .936084 .810610 1960.5 .951963 .833011 1959.5 .933735 .849666 1958.5 .907898 .853170 1957.5 .927560 .865227 .884617 1956.5 .923342 .862405 .896837 1955.5 .910610 .894503 .897971 1954.5 .898740 .906226 .897543 1953.5 .910021 .931172 .907935 1952.5 .913574 .935261 .898378 1951.5 .920911 .937674 .892177 1950.5 .934796 .940832 .896081 1949.5 .951866 .942322 .896675 1948.5 .957861 .943756 .908670 1947.5 .962221 .945345 .907454 1946.5 .964391 .952514 .908940 1945.5 .976213 .953143 .926861 1944.5 .974236 .953097 .933709 1943.5 .965058 .957898 .942351 1942.5 .953147 .947006 .950084 1941.5 .963928 .943007 .944393 1940.5 .964703 .939181 .951320 1939.5 .958044 .942680 .951855 1938.5 .957838 .953587 .952560 1937.5 .953564 .950930 .953054 1936.5 .982303 .957401 .953791 1935.5 .981043 .966073 .952901 1934.5 .980134 .966505 .952780 1933.5 .981286 .963944 .947074 1932.5 .923438 .964958 .951031 .918283 1931.5 .864418 .958323 .951653 .921873 1930.5 .889306 .962922 .954042 .921378 1929.5 .908519 .960253 .957874 .921944 1928.5 .950402 .961445 .955503 .927149 1927.5 .944974 .960853 .952822 .927052 1926.5 .927936 .963880 .955443 .922266 1925.5 .942064 .961047 .956583 .922412 1924.5 .938299 .961164 .957703 .922756 1923.5 .890652 .947108 .956746 .923318 1922.5 .959972 .953357 .956735 .923547 1921.5 .891122 .954490 .955800 .924985 1920.5 .969350 .957930 .953992 .929326 1919.5 .965473 .959903 .952951 .932863 1918.5 .960847 .952272 .953311 .937470 1917.5 .967382 .947024 .950427 .940999 1916.5 .967936 .941437 .951446 .939635 1915.5 .957640 .938682 .949389 .935079 1914.5 .953311 .938719 .950630 .931606 1913.5 .909823 .930385 .947033 .930891 1912.5 .922376 .943129 .948888 .930807 1911.5 .962093 .941312 .948607 .931581 1910.5 .946739 .943770 .949006 .931120 1909.5 .952846 .948912 .946874 .930918 1908.5 .937365 .947145 .943137 .930581 1907.5 .931939 .945966 .941526 .931587 1906.5 .948538 .944996 .936354 .930898 1905.5 .952682 .939147 .931862 .930559 1904.5 .954695 .940241 .931860 .930956 1903.5 .972415 .938076 .924981 .930942 1902.5 .960142 .937104 .934359 .929997 1901.5 .948843 .951756 .929663 .932305 1900.5 .937155 .937879 .930536 .933647 1899.5 .953238 .931292 .933335 .933891 1898.5 .960602 .926200 .929151 .932970 1897.5 .953072 .925316 .929432 .933260 1896.5 .951336 .929085 .933411 .932956 1895.5 .947887 .928041 .928353 .931729 1894.5 .943515 .929916 .928748 .929691 1893.5 .898041 .942191 .929356 .929366 1892.5 .886490 .933370 .929357 .928555 1891.5 .891064 .921833 .935392 .928678 1890.5 .923509 .907537 .908202 .926865 1889.5 .895797 .904060 .898292 .926755 1888.5 .856343 .908334 .896358 .924668 1887.5 .909925 .909174 .898249 .925828 1886.5 .920214 .911905 .899975 .924125 1885.5 .905333 .918492 .900488 .927358 1884.5 .911465 .912857 .900402 .929945 1883.5 .901922 .910472 .905853 .925180 1882.5 .891485 .912122 .898233 .924049 1881.5 .854163 .903624 .893813 .918788 1880.5 .879690 .884322 .885219 .915622 1879.5 .909280 .865297 .877798 .915161 1878.5 .949018 .861506 .879175 .911391 1877.5 .937618 .871789 .881250 .916086 1876.5 .917548 .875423 .884150 .916679 1875.5 .929128 .874961 .887219 .918475 1874.5 .936139 .871089 .882900 .918400 1873.5 .944048 .867285 .882839 .915462 1872.5 .946357 .861045 .883130 .914323 1871.5 .933472 .859461 .886847 .914257 1870.5 .901924 .855946 .888617 .910142 1869.5 .879505 .853832 .883818 .912077 1868.5 .878189 .856287 .880272 .911934 1867.5 .855814 .859041 .885918 .911991 1866.5 .814552 .867212 .885882 .918704 1865.5 .750042 .875367 .889216 .910283 1864.5 .699126 .873497 .886680 .910479 1863.5 .671928 .877863 .887124 .909612 1862.5 .667859 .876626 .885361 .910002 1861.5 .559237 .889068 .882078 .910100 1860.5 .782366 .890812 .894494 .910775 1859.5 .933398 .885607 .907704 .910712 1858.5 .917509 .882976 .902853 .914284 1857.5 .812436 .883393 .902930 .909615 1856.5 .901632 .871191 .899040 .907408 1855.5 .922632 .872512 .898520 .903431 1854.5 .911930 .867760 .897653 .902633 1853.5 .942185 .866621 .898121 .902665 1852.5 .941845 .862990 .898679 .895344 1851.5 .946498 .862467 .904037 .900010 1850.5 .948280 .914308 .905387 .900873 1849.5 .966677 .943670 .901095 .899810 1848.5 .970171 .929790 .900948 .898508 1847.5 .970464 .932214 .897312 .896953 1846.5 .963948 .929170 .891228 .893786 1845.5 .955345 .924524 .885091 .894911 1844.5 .927074 .926451 .890237 .891648 1843.5 .919213 .928957 .889403 .889852 1842.5 .887643 .929904 .889552 .893530 1841.5 .869951 .932156 .897798 .894252 1840.5 .943156 .935546 .912424 .894226 1839.5 .959835 .935887 .925084 .891638 1838.5 .941462 .938413 .924844 .891331 1837.5 .941400 .932151 .926540 .890329 1836.5 .952522 .924813 .924811 .891421 1835.5 .949293 .921825 .925226 .896325 1834.5 .942960 .925582 .925871 .897595 1833.5 .945695 .922989 .925812 .898731 1832.5 .946934 .922288 .921854 .894556 1831.5 .957860 .927371 .921757 .892177 1830.5 .942874 .925755 .922511 .893087 1829.5 .847841 .926182 .927940 .888976 1828.5 .900397 .927397 .925458 .890910 1827.5 .864141 .928956 .909533 .893124 1826.5 .887437 .935023 .915396 .895424 1825.5 .897412 .930391 .914440 .895300 1824.5 .922436 .927919 .915488 .893606 1823.5 .920404 .924528 .913724 .892318 1822.5 .941106 .917914 .909658 .887809 1821.5 .942370 .922175 .899836 .885543 1820.5 .921265 .905351 .900506 .883525 1819.5 .935060 .886019 .898464 .883655 1818.5 .930336 .899168 .897861 .883357 1817.5 .955349 .875083 .900092 .883203 1816.5 .954203 .911100 .902201 .885421 1815.5 .952637 .921146 .899671 .895403 1814.5 .897517 .922015 .896464 .898772 1813.5 .941353 .920155 .895808 .902807 1812.5 .951663 .911288 .895117 .900340 1811.5 .945266 .893244 .899644 .900007 1810.5 .963893 .890834 .899764 .901693 1809.5 .939536 .888572 .888131 .901107 1808.5 .874302 .885714 .898212 .901709 1807.5 .824414 .894745 .888333 .901947 1806.5 .913411 .895729 .889639 .899140 1805.5 .921753 .894406 .894786 .899649 1804.5 .921121 .880001 .885822 .900932 1803.5 .917080 .879253 .890061 .900953 1802.5 .902413 .874658 .896492 .900329 1801.5 .871100 .869988 .896657 .890983 1800.5 .870532 .895915 .893323 .888435 1799.5 .845086 .896247 .893782 .886578 1798.5 .844305 .894978 .891197 .885318 1797.5 .901962 .875018 .885034 .883986 1796.5 .827206 .874214 .887265 .878648 1795.5 .828556 .875031 .887884 .876720 1794.5 .767167 .861417 .884755 .876938 1793.5 .771050 .869036 .885484 .872985 1792.5 .780896 .884174 .881685 .871406 1791.5 .931021 .888248 .877015 .871012 1790.5 .963611 .887078 .881331 .860000 1789.5 .948301 .881198 .874919 .847226 1788.5 .942859 .882852 .884575 .848058 1787.5 .831972 .885200 .882344 .848070 1786.5 .838733 .851537 .883430 .854668 1785.5 .866204 .847558 .886387 .844849 1784.5 .863874 .852067 .885963 .835461 1783.5 .902355 .855709 .886797 .841111 1782.5 .929066 .862863 .889236 .842598 1781.5 .933047 .885155 .883037 .843661 1780.5 .861948 .887477 .883235 .847461 1779.5 .830329 .876375 .880189 .846636 1778.5 .832445 .893352 .883702 .858686 1777.5 .854261 .886510 .892879 .862389 1776.5 .869978 .888383 .858351 .859941 1775.5 .864805 .897714 .854006 .857349 1774.5 .932380 .902064 .849133 .860417 1773.5 .934386 .904760 .849366 .858854 1772.5 .894147 .906217 .849863 .858848 1771.5 .853460 .896096 .850638 .858552 1770.5 .866292 .877540 .845667 .856852 1769.5 .851522 .873589 .850475 .854430 1768.5 .910528 .872795 .844298 .855431 1767.5 .953968 .882788 .832649 .851132 1766.5 .955151 .862827 .832265 .847996 1765.5 .953594 .859318 .808933 .845579 1764.5 .954325 .865980 .780342 .844440 1763.5 .952258 .856679 .783125 .843609 1762.5 .956096 .834398 .786872 .839420 1761.5 .939377 .815760 .801650 .840110 1760.5 .939630 .816843 .772473 .838950 1759.5 .954055 .828958 .776495 .836622 1758.5 .902301 .818760 .779850 .838294 1757.5 .846883 .836337 .793622 .838614 1756.5 .584537 .826958 .796146 .836687 1755.5 .268609 .752209 .802674 .835774 1754.5 .217341 .678446 .811854 .834845 1753.5 .174311 .683690 .833257 .832659 1752.5 .241244 .697370 .833765 .836439 1751.5 .077772 .743240 .830337 .819609 1750.5 .023225 .735556 .828841 .815579 1749.5 .107231 .766247 .832958 .815287 1748.5 -.008149 .716617 .833280 .814946 1747.5 -.051153 .713950 .840688 .815485 1746.5 .040744 .706709 .843165 .821986 1745.5 -.073913 .712555 .843006 .829495 1744.5 .115547 .740334 .843949 .831550 1743.5 .152699 .802602 .846386 .833309 1742.5 .362260 .818092 .841453 .828087 1741.5 .713896 .823763 .841065 .829041 1740.5 .746228 .818592 .833576 .828101 1739.5 .802895 .823327 .838421 .822424 1738.5 .839886 .821487 .827081 .824049 1737.5 .842943 .819471 .819306 .828338 1736.5 .846879 .846195 .818475 .826105 1735.5 .904754 .847180 .806007 .816568 1734.5 .967527 .853092 .801919 .814125 1733.5 .963078 .856583 .807010 .817887 1732.5 .965190 .852756 .801830 .824533 1731.5 .933465 .866595 .800849 .827424 1730.5 .932727 .858100 .801665 .827286 1729.5 .917418 .852536 .803500 .842112 1728.5 .916068 .860976 .796534 .840045 1727.5 .928105 .848812 .791842 .835968 1726.5 .910700 .848435 .794061 .837157 1725.5 .905028 .865048 .789404 .841660 1724.5 .917176 .890976 .793032 .839916 1723.5 .925334 .893093 .793895 .846574 1722.5 .863286 .887905 .800115 .851331 1721.5 .806529 .869796 .814402 .850230 1720.5 .801319 .872923 .830103 .850935 1719.5 .736667 .860257 .830346 .848243 1718.5 .766909 .840819 .839546 .846052 1717.5 .872575 .829707 .836923 .845119 1716.5 .867849 .820702 .839621 .849442 1715.5 .893989 .809225 .851047 .851011 1714.5 .866630 .815958 .855665 .851785 1713.5 .787731 .764753 .855584 .848858 1712.5 .815030 .740746 .859514 .850947 1711.5 .786839 .752998 .849606 .844059 1710.5 .860642 .792759 .850380 .842014 1709.5 .862410 .774317 .842734 .841941 1708.5 .796045 .788291 .845320 .842722 1707.5 .697467 .777869 .845842 .841495 1706.5 .610542 .781863 .849864 .846554 1705.5 .556517 .778455 .846447 .846814 1704.5 .582877 .741344 .864725 .847703 1703.5 .170177 .743317 .845597 .844547 1702.5 .037980 .768018 .832104 .845082 1701.5 .415054 .766596 .832819 .849369 1700.5 .648844 .768561 .842713 .850768 1699.5 .654867 .764495 .835650 .851974 1698.5 .585598 .788028 .854127 .854147 1697.5 .651399 .803847 .855392 .851727 1696.5 .824149 .805497 .855240 .852421 1695.5 .857453 .809415 .859329 .854006 1694.5 .810444 .850246 .852735 .853842 1693.5 .845215 .839858 .846520 .859104 1692.5 .900678 .837492 .848404 .860753 1691.5 .920541 .850191 .858717 .857780 1690.5 .874185 .865399 .867245 .865758 1689.5 .808812 .857017 .865130 .875390 1688.5 .838703 .883912 .869072 .873549 1687.5 .862659 .890388 .877577 .872932 1686.5 .855975 .897655 .864808 .868563 1685.5 .864649 .907444 .867684 .868257 1684.5 .954111 .899878 .871225 .866602 1683.5 .957255 .900724 .867316 .864632 1682.5 .950333 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.635562 .565763 .685183 1323.5 .633422 .560854 .567030 .683645 1322.5 .603802 .484072 .573237 .683324 1321.5 .639069 .553543 .555943 .689241 1320.5 .631695 .604917 .544146 .690771 1319.5 .495905 .572229 .558639 .692544 1318.5 .548002 .552348 .566221 .694615 1317.5 .521553 .558684 .612330 .692578 1316.5 .320857 .547333 .618978 .686327 1315.5 .128890 .528282 .623528 .684775 1314.5 .074797 .528216 .624305 .670566 1313.5 .045440 .525233 .608219 .656266 1312.5 .077462 .539325 .597689 .657178 1311.5 .331837 .545044 .575246 .663794 1310.5 .344246 .543860 .599490 .660373 1309.5 .293931 .553916 .593671 .663978 1308.5 .353582 .565387 .601672 .662366 1307.5 .499743 .616150 .598265 .666889 1306.5 .712043 .587936 .602807 .671106 1305.5 .710273 .564216 .605730 .657883 1304.5 .741005 .547260 .593983 .652551 1303.5 .734044 .552476 .592770 .661672 1302.5 .854980 .570350 .590554 .681490 1301.5 .696306 .543662 .601218 .656648 1300.5 .557309 .549920 .608788 .622106 1299.5 .590879 .561122 .610950 .626134 1298.5 .625555 .578408 .616481 .634363 1297.5 .710628 .588089 .622884 .635490 1296.5 .763749 .674531 .606951 .629282 1295.5 .780128 .697914 .588251 .634432 1294.5 .736530 .686556 .589440 .634438 1293.5 .756390 .688550 .598545 .636093 1292.5 .754589 .711368 .623208 .640754 1291.5 .650818 .694534 .615105 .641629 1290.5 .745358 .679353 .615841 .637918 1289.5 .757893 .677109 .594321 .639275 1288.5 .764126 .692580 .601451 .621484 1287.5 .613041 .682243 .612532 .625184 1286.5 .625826 .706206 .679875 .624371 1285.5 .653340 .713825 .667716 .628634 1284.5 .677159 .719146 .664678 .623608 1283.5 .683660 .725218 .668452 .624066 1282.5 .667503 .730130 .674491 .621404 1281.5 .769453 .729647 .663968 .623433 1280.5 .846250 .768217 .655794 .618908 1279.5 .863594 .725866 .649935 .611888 1278.5 .794814 .727358 .686199 .631325 1277.5 .784127 .697172 .739787 .641702 1276.5 .718681 .725299 .746999 .645469 1275.5 .695055 .696453 .718316 .649310 1274.5 .767125 .700159 .716359 .640395 1273.5 .814059 .700433 .728070 .624327 1272.5 .843044 .695357 .739927 .632088 1271.5 .740875 .735424 .733658 .630399 1270.5 .814924 .737165 .754604 .637418 1269.5 .630843 .722728 .741105 .640974 1268.5 .623999 .744198 .739712 .642916 1267.5 .629097 .801952 .721990 .648805 1266.5 .579255 .800645 .717484 .638097 1265.5 .532085 .753458 .706838 .636364 1264.5 .619535 .753701 .707081 .640211 1263.5 .504875 .772529 .674845 .642757 1262.5 .545887 .770100 .687697 .647026 1261.5 .559499 .760972 .703346 .670314 1260.5 .815426 .771486 .704809 .675109 1259.5 .873880 .741612 .699548 .667622 1258.5 .915991 .741548 .693465 .679202 1257.5 .942757 .735733 .690033 .671221 1256.5 .923166 .723414 .690962 .664241 1255.5 .870476 .724751 .680482 .655381 1254.5 .871941 .726743 .671030 .645966 1253.5 .876327 .661923 .702749 .652500 1252.5 .868692 .678723 .717467 .660985 1251.5 .882221 .690085 .717543 .670419 1250.5 .861052 .717927 .714720 .678280 1249.5 .765275 .719295 .692433 .675309 1248.5 .751168 .713646 .661491 .675691 1247.5 .578565 .680294 .671956 .683339 1246.5 .576036 .651326 .683534 .684188 1245.5 .665595 .658828 .701256 .661295 1244.5 .642226 .650289 .699111 .665401 1243.5 .305068 .705668 .698199 .662947 1242.5 .406200 .740462 .695969 .653035 1241.5 .484545 .736931 .681116 .649941 1240.5 .389563 .733871 .690189 .654573 1239.5 .252848 .711280 .701284 .653576 1238.5 .194431 .648566 .701153 .652253 1237.5 .259895 .582392 .694360 .652123 1236.5 .387374 .627242 .671242 .659878 1235.5 .539192 .706037 .686774 .663962 1234.5 .537966 .699701 .677128 .665714 1233.5 .896064 .677757 .694024 .661351 1232.5 .897954 .679382 .675325 .659106 1231.5 .934862 .656645 .664324 .657547 1230.5 .963689 .640891 .650257 .649390 1229.5 .899500 .654476 .638765 .644609 1228.5 .881959 .655245 .627910 .642330 1227.5 .871057 .672134 .600962 .645436 1226.5 .915163 .664707 .617254 .633000 1225.5 .896500 .695460 .654651 .608530 1224.5 .846678 .683967 .652496 .616690 1223.5 .744110 .740679 .639992 .614545 1222.5 .577674 .684313 .652028 .610316 1221.5 .471357 .679452 .664793 .604800 1220.5 .431251 .657470 .595641 .605600 1219.5 .549066 .637810 .607139 .604196 1218.5 .799334 .639016 .603105 .600469 1217.5 .802073 .655806 .606332 .616172 1216.5 .736675 .671382 .606318 .619825 1215.5 .745250 .691834 .628576 .623286 1214.5 .572083 .691649 .628877 .625741 1213.5 .697066 .648821 .644161 .615125 1212.5 .570253 .615628 .631776 .615028 1211.5 .562914 .605892 .637888 .617597 1210.5 .444068 .515959 .643993 .623907 1209.5 .337377 .568303 .649804 .624512 1208.5 .362148 .598471 .645990 .623914 1207.5 .472542 .586206 .642079 .626196 1206.5 .616756 .565269 .639272 .623022 1205.5 .648295 .565455 .632981 .621184 1204.5 .668105 .560329 .632020 .624977 1203.5 .452014 .553504 .597231 .610892 1202.5 .727098 .551035 .583168 .574614 1201.5 .835582 .583298 .559598 .584702 1200.5 .506135 .595994 .517824 .600593 1199.5 .581728 .594819 .548321 .598923 1198.5 .587819 .580477 .562010 .592968 1197.5 .580888 .563091 .544926 .593421 1196.5 .497096 .560385 .519281 .591993 1195.5 .479355 .539146 .493570 .589503 1194.5 .500258 .549593 .490405 .593213 1193.5 .485690 .452648 .484046 .595565 1192.5 .409075 .502026 .529552 .599673 1191.5 .386498 .470275 .551946 .603705 1190.5 .697951 .409732 .552632 .611243 1189.5 .649524 .483073 .541711 .609190 1188.5 .644149 .488373 .517364 .621433 1187.5 .471919 .459907 .526855 .618050 1186.5 .461413 .419487 .552365 .618832 1185.5 .323262 .383038 .549572 .620285 1184.5 .370601 .389081 .560771 .623073 1183.5 .433955 .383008 .511583 .631030 1182.5 .398462 .435310 .534425 .642778 1181.5 .122218 .423425 .539617 .653490 1180.5 -.025845 .519937 .543900 .645303 1179.5 .193210 .500445 .558372 .640358 1178.5 .195121 .463712 .545086 .624492 1177.5 .169314 .492413 .512283 .614733 1176.5 .126047 .548936 .519308 .616717 1175.5 .154756 .534424 .511625 .618360 1174.5 .159799 .551639 .513896 .617176 1173.5 .160553 .557405 .518539 .616091 1172.5 .431515 .551134 .493860 .607682 1171.5 .545320 .545111 .479760 .599438 1170.5 .837850 .527766 .556484 .591739 1169.5 .835692 .522370 .558058 .578302 1168.5 .605215 .506009 .569414 .577846 1167.5 .752180 .470660 .563781 .573509 1166.5 .842508 .511732 .572697 .582018 1165.5 .836717 .535590 .574493 .585443 1164.5 .844794 .536773 .582976 .581271 1163.5 .864568 .553064 .590010 .580690 1162.5 .745273 .543865 .598845 .578886 1161.5 .731718 .572164 .600288 .577780 1160.5 .708828 .700659 .600407 .574354 1159.5 .715231 .687193 .599066 .579713 1158.5 .702714 .687760 .628954 .562196 1157.5 .375387 .699999 .654781 .572894 1156.5 .337584 .718088 .679656 .563722 1155.5 .363974 .730396 .675214 .545655 1154.5 .228241 .731043 .665181 .555903 1153.5 .147194 .735219 .666157 .557000 1152.5 .207603 .704377 .660492 .550963 1151.5 .478924 .703230 .686487 .541657 1150.5 .792084 .710625 .751692 .541796 1149.5 .783328 .715408 .722920 .544001 1148.5 .776026 .788111 .683719 .543767 1147.5 .855659 .789530 .683665 .538215 1146.5 .818493 .787961 .686109 .539336 1145.5 .793703 .757273 .688415 .562487 1144.5 .772722 .743981 .663042 .552482 1143.5 .732533 .738215 .666450 .554172 1142.5 .683402 .743620 .623247 .550132 1141.5 .788241 .741830 .614631 .549688 1140.5 .801115 .757198 .619489 .544773 1139.5 .783947 .709459 .616599 .544124 1138.5 .858970 .655710 .638916 .545363 1137.5 .852540 .671363 .633529 .542787 1136.5 .807560 .622738 .610557 .548200 1135.5 .666280 .595766 .606538 .544588 1134.5 .671763 .543058 .606962 .539078 1133.5 .659226 .499405 .599569 .540420 1132.5 .709200 .462780 .596098 .543938 1131.5 .688682 .483215 .578362 .539933 1130.5 .732178 .486069 .539721 .548668 1129.5 .692880 .487286 .531716 .542741 1128.5 .570397 .517489 .535989 .544870 1127.5 .459095 .558202 .547691 .539190 1126.5 .326463 .536852 .515302 .569625 1125.5 .387143 .543174 .530536 .605104 1124.5 .421211 .548632 .526769 .595888 1123.5 .213474 .526143 .506624 .592934 1122.5 .034907 .532364 .498742 .598083 1121.5 -.032534 .500823 .506843 .575209 1120.5 -.276458 .426999 .495459 .578862 1119.5 -.284067 .424020 .487115 .559651 1118.5 .338370 .380151 .489196 .566344 1117.5 .455271 .334144 .491433 .544773 1116.5 .456317 .258146 .480996 .536132 1115.5 .425328 .330618 .478210 .541299 1114.5 .598140 .349442 .481662 .544867 1113.5 .520005 .321171 .478546 .553784 1112.5 .565631 .314208 .471051 .550280 1111.5 .448079 .289059 .483437 .537067 1110.5 .073016 .271546 .481539 .535299 1109.5 .151340 .302129 .479220 .550067 1108.5 .115772 .370413 .452410 .551888 1107.5 -.217646 .329735 .425084 .560007 1106.5 -.180694 .323207 .370689 .567648 1105.5 .246521 .323446 .389797 .571652 1104.5 .225224 .383951 .393003 .571159 1103.5 .228762 .374755 .368522 .575167 1102.5 .213086 .380339 .368353 .590367 1101.5 .309784 .428010 .415665 .579866 1100.5 .742434 .413961 .418501 .574266 1099.5 .675958 .414022 .433706 .573669 1098.5 .684059 .409713 .471236 .567692 1097.5 .692514 .358946 .460715 .566002 1096.5 .789571 .350993 .401186 .581137 1095.5 .543195 .371012 .402803 .580470 1094.5 .517460 .347295 .392345 .579833 1093.5 .567919 .366103 .415524 .581804 1092.5 .525069 .369364 .431493 .598856 1091.5 .642191 .527269 .421041 .596619 1090.5 .673367 .683084 .417548 .596469 1089.5 .762158 .664018 .427283 .597012 1088.5 .781606 .645463 .419585 .601251 1087.5 .780743 .650538 .410393 .599790 1086.5 .703053 .535394 .417599 .600204 1085.5 .727068 .497260 .419966 .598693 1084.5 .559232 .418792 .458141 .605481 1083.5 .496321 .462504 .470891 .595276 1082.5 .560589 .465239 .503659 .585718 1081.5 .690897 .444305 .541588 .568510 1080.5 .682283 .466641 .606703 .574358 1079.5 .654217 .488066 .608208 .581237 1078.5 .660151 .483225 .605053 .587457 1077.5 .660832 .496513 .620484 .588123 1076.5 .543081 .512133 .626118 .584134 1075.5 .475936 .500100 .615006 .593266 1074.5 .090826 .548456 .614096 .618306 1073.5 .376492 .558202 .613762 .638868 1072.5 .410839 .614768 .611699 .648481 1071.5 .147198 .601731 .639981 .651725 1070.5 .182227 .591997 .645355 .654070 1069.5 .257999 .595746 .652229 .673630 1068.5 .263328 .605148 .663124 .680598 1067.5 .278736 .622850 .703743 .686276 1066.5 .588958 .636284 .715192 .686885 1065.5 .549895 .618317 .714489 .685366 1064.5 .785789 .636223 .714304 .701096 1063.5 .718390 .639609 .732010 .704633 1062.5 .807141 .647414 .741172 .716435 1061.5 .862733 .659516 .734315 .725090 1060.5 .862720 .668643 .734432 .729315 1059.5 .862014 .679840 .745589 .730687 1058.5 .979786 .704223 .753120 .741354 1057.5 .999988 .750778 .753770 .740759 1056.5 .999987 .838227 .762627 .762920 1055.5 .999815 .836432 .756884 .799610 1054.5 .999151 .907841 .776282 .802790 1053.5 .999023 .915605 .783533 .803474 1052.5 .998009 .915087 .788456 .807914 1051.5 .995336 .937328 .779502 .809205 1050.5 .995832 .940653 .795500 .820587 1049.5 .995669 .945907 .813576 .820448 1048.5 .996222 .989598 .819109 1047.5 .999868 .996631 .825720 1046.5 .999982 .996824 .881576 1045.5 .999986 .996796 .885370 1044.5 .999988 .996855 .936143 1043.5 .999989 .996966 .940592 1042.5 .999990 .998152 .940630 1041.5 .999991 .998342 .953549 1040.5 .999984 .998515 .958845 1039.5 .999986 .998745 .965381 1038.5 .999992 .998848 .993331 1037.5 .999988 .999926 .997620 1036.5 .999987 .999978 .997881 1035.5 .999986 .999979 .997900 1034.5 .999982 .999979 .998180 1033.5 .999972 .999981 .998244 1032.5 .999958 .999982 .999060 1031.5 .999940 .999981 .999252 1030.5 .999951 .999980 .999275 1029.5 .999953 .999982 .999328 1028.5 .999949 .999984 .999393 1027.5 .999964 .999981 .999956 1026.5 .999963 .999983 .999981 1025.5 .999970 .999982 .999981 1024.5 .999973 .999982 .999981 1023.5 .999979 .999980 1022.5 .999982 .999979 1021.5 .999988 .999981 1020.5 .999989 .999983 1019.5 .999992 .999983 1018.5 .999988 .999982 1017.5 .999985 .999982 1016.5 .999990 .999980 1015.5 .999987 .999980 1014.5 .999990 .999980 1013.5 .999986 1012.5 .999984 1011.5 .999986 1010.5 .999990 1009.5 .999989 1008.5 .999989 1007.5 .999990 1006.5 .999974 1005.5 .999975 1004.5 .999971 246. 1997-04-21 17:28:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 21 Apr 1997 17:28:44 GMT from: "D.Jewson" subject: Baikal ice data to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk This is Lake Baikal data. The first row means that lake froze in 7 jan 1869. if you look at 5th row you will see this 12 Dec so 1872. The 5th & 6th columns again are numbered from Jul 1st. Note - the last three columns are not in the same order as earlier Angara data. The length of ice duration is last here. Best wishes, David. Year,Year,Freezing,melting,Ice on,Ice off,Duration 1868,1869,7-Jan,8-May,191,313,122 1869,1870,5-Jan,12-May,189,317,128 1870,1871,8-Jan,8-May,192,313,121 1871,1872,5-Jan,11-May,189,316,127 1872,1873,28-Dec,10-May,181,315,134 1873,1874,19-Jan,15-May,203,320,117 1874,1875,9-Jan,8-May,193,313,120 1875,1876,27-Dec,9-May,180,314,134 1876,1877,14-Dec,17-May,167,322,155 1877,1878,23-Dec,29-Apr,176,304,128 1878,1879,20-Dec,26-May,173,331,158 1879,1880,5-Jan,16-May,189,321,132 1880,1881,16-Jan,13-May,200,318,118 1881,1882,13-Jan,10-May,197,315,118 1882,1883,1-Jan,20-May,185,325,140 1883,1884,13-Jan,14-May,197,319,122 1884,1885,8-Jan,11-May,192,316,124 1885,1886,23-Jan,5-May,207,310,103 1886,1887,15-Jan,29-Apr,199,304,105 1887,1888,14-Jan,8-May,198,313,115 1888,1889,1-Jan,14-May,185,319,134 1889,1890,31-Dec,26-Apr,184,301,117 1890,1891,28-Dec,11-May,181,316,135 1891,1892,7-Jan,6-May,191,311,120 1892,1893,7-Jan,9-May,191,314,123 1893,1894,13-Jan,2-May,197,307,110 1894,1895,9-Jan,29-Apr,193,304,111 1895,1896,10-Jan,7-May,194,312,118 1896,1897,11-Jan,19-May,195,324,129 1897,1898,1-Jan,1-May,185,306,121 1898,1899,4-Feb,30-Apr,219,305,86 1899,1900,5-Jan,12-May,189,317,128 1900,1901,5-Jan,2-May,189,307,118 1901,1902,30-Dec,30-Apr,183,305,122 1902,1903,5-Jan,3-May,189,308,119 1903,1904,1-Jan,7-May,185,312,127 1904,1905,24-Jan,30-Apr,208,305,97 1905,1906,3-Jan,29-Apr,187,304,117 1906,1907,19-Jan,30-Apr,203,305,102 1907,1908,12-Jan,10-May,196,315,119 1908,1909,8-Jan,10-May,192,315,123 1909,1910,8-Jan,13-May,192,318,126 1910,1911,19-Dec,2-May,172,307,135 1911,1912,29-Dec,27-Apr,182,302,120 1912,1913,26-Dec,1-May,179,306,127 1913,1914,22-Jan,2-May,206,307,101 1914,1915,14-Jan,4-May,198,309,111 1915,1916,7-Jan,20-Apr,191,295,104 1916,1917,20-Dec,20-Apr,173,295,122 1917,1918,26-Dec,24-Apr,179,299,120 1918,1919,28-Dec,20-Apr,181,295,114 1919,1920,14-Jan,7-May,198,312,114 1920,1921,2-Jan,4-May,186,309,123 1921,1922,1-Jan,25-Apr,185,300,115 1922,1923,4-Jan,17-Apr,188,292,104 1923,1924,10-Jan,15-May,194,320,126 1924,1925,13-Jan,2-May,197,307,110 1925,1926,19-Jan,19-Apr,203,294,91 1926,1927,13-Jan,5-May,197,310,113 1927,1928,8-Jan,2-May,192,307,115 1928,1929,6-Jan,5-May,190,310,120 1929,1930,31-Dec,17-May,184,322,138 1930,1931,9-Jan,12-May,193,317,124 1931,1932,2-Feb,21-Apr,217,296,79 1932,1933,24-Jan,27-Apr,208,302,94 1933,1934,18-Jan,1-May,202,306,104 1934,1935,17-Jan,1-May,201,306,105 1935,1936,1-Jan,10-May,185,315,130 1936,1937,14-Jan,5-May,198,310,112 1937,1938,3-Jan,28-Apr,187,303,116 1938,1939,6-Jan,29-Apr,190,304,114 1939,1940,18-Jan,29-Apr,202,304,102 1940,1941,18-Jan,3-May,202,308,106 1941,1942,15-Jan,3-May,199,308,109 1942,1943,17-Jan,26-Apr,201,301,100 1943,1944,5-Jan,29-Apr,189,304,115 1944,1945,31-Dec,2-May,184,307,123 1945,1946,8-Jan,24-Apr,192,299,107 1946,1947,6-Jan,4-May,190,309,119 1947,1948,19-Dec,5-May,172,310,138 1948,1949,21-Jan,22-Apr,205,297,92 1949,1950,30-Dec,9-May,183,314,131 1950,1951,5-Jan,8-May,189,313,124 1951,1952,28-Jan,30-Apr,212,305,93 1952,1953,31-Dec,1-May,184,306,122 1953,1954,15-Jan,3-May,199,308,109 1954,1955,4-Jan,7-May,188,312,124 1955,1956,18-Jan,11-May,202,316,114 1956,1957,2-Jan,3-May,186,308,122 1957,1958,18-Jan,6-May,202,311,109 1958,1959,6-Feb,19-Apr,221,294,73 1959,1960,28-Dec,27-Apr,181,302,121 1960,1961,20-Jan,19-Apr,204,294,90 1961,1962,13-Jan,24-Apr,197,299,102 1962,1963,17-Jan,2-May,201,307,106 1963,1964,29-Jan,7-May,213,312,99 1964,1965,21-Jan,2-May,205,307,102 1965,1966,15-Jan,9-May,199,314,115 1966,1967,29-Dec,2-May,182,307,125 1967,1968,6-Jan,29-Apr,190,304,114 1968,1969,3-Jan,8-May,187,313,126 1969,1970,6-Jan,12-May,190,317,127 1970,1971,7-Jan,9-May,191,314,123 1971,1972,12-Jan,28-Apr,196,303,107 1972,1973,17-Jan,13-May,201,318,117 1973,1974,26-Jan,8-May,210,313,103 1974,1975,27-Dec,10-May,180,315,135 1975,1976,17-Jan,30-Apr,201,305,104 1976,1977,8-Jan,11-May,192,316,124 1977,1978,29-Jan,27-Apr,213,302,89 1978,1979,22-Jan,3-May,206,308,102 1979,1980,11-Jan,10-May,195,315,120 1980,1981,18-Jan,24-Apr,202,299,97 1981,1982,14-Jan,19-Apr,198,294,96 1982,1983,30-Jan,6-May,214,311,97 1983,1984,28-Jan,3-May,212,308,96 1984,1985,12-Jan,9-May,196,314,118 1985,1986,7-Jan,5-May,191,310,119 1986,1987,30-Jan,7-May,214,312,98 1987,1988,12-Jan,29-Apr,196,304,108 1988,1989,30-Jan,23-Apr,214,298,84 1989,1990,21-Jan,24-Apr,205,299,94 1990,1991,25-Jan,27-Apr,209,302,93 1991,1992,3-Jan,19-May,187,324,137 1992,1993,15-Jan,7-May,199,312,113 1993,1994,17-Jan,6-May,201,311,110 1994,1995,28-Jan,3-May,212,308,96 1995,1996,18-Jan,9-May,202,314,112 Dr. David Jewson Freshwater Laboratory, University of Ulster Traad Point, Ballyronan, Magherafelt, Co. Derry, BT45 6LR, UK Tel: +44-1648 418264 or 418350 Fax: +44-1648 418777 E-mail: d.jewson@ulst.ac.uk 3229. 1997-04-22 08:06:10 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 22 Apr 1997 08:06:10 +0100 from: Mick Kelly subject: Fw: From WCMC to: Mike Hulme ---------- > From: Jim Paine > To: m.kelly@uea.ac.uk > Subject: Re: Project thoughts > Date: 16 April 1997 18:54 > > > Dear Mick > > I've put together a draft project concept, hopefully inserted into this > email. As we have already briefly touched upon, I'd be very grateful if > you could review this, in particualr with respect to (i) the basic > credibility, soundness and practicality of the idea and (ii) the extent > (and cost) of CRU's involvement. > > For example, is it possible/realistic for CRU to provide Arc-Info files of > GCM results, and is it realistic to simply overlay/intersect that with our > GIS files of say, forest cover? > > Is it defensible to take this very simple approach to say that 'this piece > of the Earth's surface is going to experience climate change and that is a > bad thing'? > > Is my interpretation of the outcome of Kyoto (optimistic/business as > usual/pessimistic) realistic, and can we actually work on the tolerance > levels (0.01 degree/0.1degree and 0.3 degree per decade) I mention in the > proposal? > > > Staff time and costs - is 5-10 days CRU time at 300/day in the right ball > park? > > Is the whole approach, to produce something simple, bright and cheerful > (or depressing) a useful input to the Kyoto meeting (probably backed by a > WWF press conference)? > > What are your thoughts on doing GIS analysis in Norwich - can we share the > GIS load? > > We have an internal project review board meeting in the next couple of > weeks, so if you or Mike Hulme have any thought please let us know, say by > some time next week - many thanks > > best wishes, Jim > > > Project concept > > The impact of climate change on global biodiversity: an overview > > Objective > > To draw the attention of The Third Conference of the Parties to the > United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to the > potential impact of climate change on global biodiversity. > > Aims > > To identify global habitats, protected areas and areas important > for biodiversity conservation that will be subject to the most > severe climate change > > To identify areas that are likely to be subject to the least > climate change and which might act as Pleistocene Refugia. > > Justification > > The Third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework > convention on Climate Change meets in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997 > in order to attempt to establish internationally agreed targets for > reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. State parties will > debate the depth of cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. The outcome > of this meeting therefore may lead to deep cuts in missions (an > 'optimistic' scenario), a renewed commitment to the current targets > ('business as usual') or a complete failure to establish any > emission targets at all (pessimistic). This project is designed to > show in simple and graphical terms what the consequences of these > three outcomes from the Conference will mean for the status of > global biodiversity in the next century. It is hoped that the > project results will encourage state parties to make commitments to > deep cuts in emissions in order to, inter alia, minimise the impact > on biodiversity. > > The concept of global climate change due to the emission of 'green > house' gases is now broadly accepted orthodoxy in the scientific > community. There is also a growing body of research that indicates > that many natural systems will be unable to adapt to the rapidly > changing climate conditions predicted by computer simulations. It > is assumed therefore that anthropogenically accelerated climate > change inevitably has negative and undesirable impacts on > biodiversity. (It is also assumed that the current distribution of > habitats is the 'normal' expression of current climate conditions.) > This project takes these two important concepts as established fact > and is designed to create a readily accessible and visual > illustration of the scale and intensity of the threat to global > biodiversity from climate change. > > The project does not attempt to cover the impact on specific > habitats or species in any detail nor does it attempt to predict > what the predicted natural ecosystem would be under the modified > climate regime. For example, WWF (1996) suggest that tropical > montane forest is sensitive to cloud cover and sunlight hours, > hurricane frequency and severity and drought frequency and annual > rainfall distribution. Climate models suggest these factors could > all change in the future, undermining the long term persistence of > these forests. Site-specific predictions have also bee made. A > long-term drying trend in central Panama appears to be leading to > major changes in forest composition and reduction in diversity. In > the rich tropical forests of Barro Colorado Island, several shrub > and tree species are heading for local extinction. > > In contrast, the project sets out to make a simple assessment of > whether or not ecosystems existing today will be subject to severe > climate change, [for example defined as a temperature change > greater than 0.01!C/decade ("WWF-tolerable"), >0.1!C/decade > ("tolerable") or 0.3!C/decade (GCM consensus)] and to review, at a > global level, the implications this could have for biodiversity > conservation. > > Using WCMC's unique global data sets and climate modelling data to > make assessments of the extent and severity impact of climate > change at the global level, the project will answer a number of > questions: > > Under three emission/climate change scenarios (optimistic/business > as usual/pessimistic): > > ! How much of the world's natural habitats will be subject to > severe climate stress? > > ! How many protected areas will be subject to severe climate > stress? > > ! How many of the world's known biodiversity 'hot spots' will be > subject to severe climate stress? > > ! Are there are regions that appear to facing lesser climate > change and are these suitable for biodiversity conservation, > for example through protected areas. > > Activities > > In collaboration with UEA-CRU, a number of suitable climate change > scenario data sets, in Arc-Info format, will be selected. > > The results of a number of climate change scenarios (reflecting the > three scenarios) will be overlain and compared to a series of > global biodiversity data layers using GIS. > > The biodiversity data layers will comprise: > > Global forest cover > Global protected areas networks > Global biodiversity 'hot spots': > Natural World Heritage properties > Centres of Plant Diversity > Endemic Bird Areas > > >From the intersection of these data layers, the following graphical > output will be produced: > > 1. A world map showing forests that will subject to severe > climate change, plus supporting statistics (type and area) > > 2. A world map showing major protected areas that will subject to > severe climate change plus supporting statistics (number and > area) > > 3. A world map showing biodiversity hotspots that will subject to > severe climate change plus supporting statistics (type and > area) > > 4. A world map showing those areas that are likely to be subject > to the least climate change and which could there fore act as > refuges. > > Output > > The output of the project will comprise a brief and visual report, > largely comprising maps with a brief discussion of the main > implications of the analysis. > > > Budget > > To be calculated, but roughly 5 days GIS/analysis per map, plus 3 > days for map production = 8*4 themes = 32 days > > ?5-10 days CRU time > > Report production: 10 days > > Printing costs, 5000 copies, c.14 pp report with colour maps: > #5,000 > > Shipping: #250 (wild guess) > > Assuming approximate staff cost of #300 per day, total = #15,600 > (+5,000+250)=#20,850 > > > Timing > > Project to be completed in time for distribution to participants at > the COP 3. > > Collaborators > WCMC, UEA-CRU, WWF > > ! > > -- > James R. Paine > Senior Research Officer > Protected Areas Unit > World Conservation Monitoring Centre > 219 Huntingdon Road > Cambridge > CB3 0DL > United Kingdom > > Tel (+) 1223 277 314 > Fax (+) 1223 277 136 > Email: jim.paine@wcmc.org.uk WWW: http://www.wcmc.org.uk 3332. 1997-04-24 16:51:05 ______________________________________________________ cc: Mike Hulme date: Thu, 24 Apr 1997 16:51:05 +0100 from: Mick Kelly subject: Re: Project thoughts to: "jim.paine" Dear James I've now had time to discuss the proposal with Mike Hulme who has done most work here on climate scenarios and we reckon you need to do some serious thinking! Basically, the problem is that to do better than has been done before in this area probably requires a lot more time and investment that you've estimated. Main point is that this kind of analysis has been done before by Hank Shuggart and others who have used, eg, the Holdridge classification to identify areas of stress on existing climate-determined habitats on a global basis and identified areas, including reserves, at risk. To do better, i.e. to make any impact at Kyoto, requires quite a substantial project. Using rates of change alone (rather than some climate-ecosystem model) is somewhat different but neglects the precip. contribution to moisture availability side which is likely to be crucial in many areas and the conclusions would therefore be vulnerable to criticism. But what is a critical rate of change in precipitation? One approach would be to compare the projected rates for both temperature and precip. with the past record (probably derived from model control simulations) and then argue that what has not been experienced in the past is probably likely to cause damage. This would be original and is definitely worth doing. But... it's a lot more work! And I suspect it would not reveal that many areas at risk in the near-term as the past rates of change can be quite large. A less critical point is that there is absolutely no chance that the Kyoto conference will result in deep cuts. It can't because the developing nations are excluded and there is no way the indust. nations will agree to much more than a slight strengthening and extension in time of the current commitments. So you are only left with one scenario really as the current commitments, even with some strengthening, are little different from what would have happened without a climate treaty. I know this sounds negative but it's the reality of the current situation. But that's maybe not a major problem as the way to pitch the analysis is to argue that precautionary action must be taken now to protect reserves etc against the inevitable (given current emission controls) change in climate. To go this route would probably involve CRU in at least a couple of months of work, i.e. a fair amount of money!, and I'm not even sure it's manageable in time for Kyoto - and I have a feeling that the results would not be zappy enough to support a real splash there anyway as there would be so many caveats. For example, there are many uncertainties in the climate projections which would have to be covered and would dilute the main story. Now - you could do the work you propose by accessing the Hadley Centre climate projections we have here in the Unit through the Link Project, set up by the DoE to provide impact analysts with input data for studies just such as you propose. That data would come free, but I'm not sure I'd advise you to go this alternative route unless you're confident you have in-house backup on the climate side. There is, thinking about it, a whole other way to highlight the climate change-biodiversity link which would to use the GIS databases you have to identify areas at risk from biodiversity loss in the present-day and then access projections for a few illustrative areas and draw out the link that way. Again, in terms of comparision with the past variability. That might cut the workload somewhat but I still reckon you could double you projected cost and still run into completion problems by year's end. Frankly, the most useful and practical thing to do might be to commission a review of work in this area backed up by maps of areas at risk from your GIS databases and some climate projections from us without actually attempting to do any fresh analysis linking the biodiversity risk areas and the climate projections explicitly. I think we may be able to commit to that final option but we are very nervous about taking anything more ambitious on given the timing. And even that won't be cheap at our end if we are doing anything other than providing data. Hope I've balanced the negative comments with some constructive suggestions! I do think that there is a very good scientific project lurking here which we could develop over a longer timescale - and we'd like to do that - but I can't really see that targetting the work at Kyoto is going to be feasible. OK - over to you. I'm away till early next week now but will pick this up again then. Best wishes Mick 1732. 1997-04-29 09:51:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 29 Apr 1997 09:51:23 +0100 from: Nick Brooks subject: Re: rainfall - temp analysis to: Mike Hulme Mike Thanks for your reply. Comments on rainfall anomalies noted. Padding at the extremities of the curves is something I'm addressing: the IDL routines automatically "fill in" at the ends - I'll look at the maths of it and think about which year to use as the start of each curve as we discussed in the last meeting. As for the requirements for the meeting/report, by "draft chapter outline" I presume you mean a draft structure of the whole thesis, as opposed to a single draft chapter? I've mailed Mick and Steve, and I'll let you know when I hear from them - both your dates are OK for me, but 16 May would have to be after 12 noon. Cheers Nick Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ U.K. Direct line +44 1603 592702 Office +44 1603 592722 Fax +44 1603 507784 E-mail n.brooks@uea.ac.uk what's possible? For this meeting we should have from you (a day or > two ahead) a fairly firmed up work plan for the next 12 months, a draft > chapter outline for the PhD, your latest thoughts about the modelling, and > any other progress you wish to discuss. Before the meeting I would like to > see a redraft of the GFDL paper. > > Cheers, > > Mike > > > 16:56 28/04/97 +0100, you wrote: > >Mike > > > >Another question to do with the pertinence of my GFDL analyses. Now that I > >have all my data in standard anomaly form, I am considering the Sahel > >rainfall / global temperature correlations. As the correlations will be > >unaffected by the units, I don't need to redo the analysis to take account > >of the fact that the rainfall is now in standardised anomaly form. However, > >as it stands the correlatations are with annual, rather than seasonal mean > >temperatures. My instinct is to keep it like this, bearing in mind the fact > >that (i) we don't know much about the rainfall - temperature relationships > >apart from on a broad spatial scale, and know nothing at all about the > >intra-annual variations in these relationships in the model, and (ii) the > >seasonality of the rainfall in the model is not realistic - so identifying > >a season in which temperature anomalies are important for a (poorly > >modelled) monsoon phenomenon would be difficult. Obviously we'll know more > >if a seasonally based analysis is done, but then identifying a season of > >particular importance would involve quite a bit of analysis itself - maybe > >this will be worth doing later but I think not now for an initial > >publication, when a first analysis should suffice. > > > >What do you think? > > > >Nick > > > >Climatic Research Unit > >School of Environmental Sciences > >University of East Anglia > >Norwich NR4 7TJ > >U.K. > > > >Direct line +44 1603 592702 > >Office +44 1603 592722 > >Fax +44 1603 507784 > >E-mail n.brooks@uea.ac.uk > > 4904. 1997-04-30 15:57:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Apr 30 15:57:27 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: your note and CAPE to: druid@ldgo.columbia.edu (Gordon Jacoby) Gordon I too am not sure where we left our conversation last. Yes I couldn't agree more about PAGES and the million spawning devils that seem to be the product. Somewhere there has to be a balance between self interest and Science good - both for PAGES and the individual- but at the moment I don't know where. There is going to be a CAPE project document and there is supposed to be a high-resolution aspect and Greg Zielinski and I are supposed to organise it. At least we should put in why tree rings are important but what good that does the dendro community I'm honestlty not sure. But to go to science - surely you have talked to Ed about the work I've been doing trying to document and understand the change in sensitivity of northern density (and ring widths) to temperature. I have a manuscript but the problem is a major one and is complicated by the issues of CO2 , temperature thresholds,standardisation regional coverage(i.e. spatial scale),appropriate climate signal etc. etc. Simply we see a loss of decadal scale sensitivity in much of our large spatial average data - and in our recent Russian calibrations. I know you talked about this in a couple of papers and have suggested a recent appearance of moisture sensitivity in your northern American trees. I do not know why this is happening but it seems clearer in the density data. We (at least Fritz) has explored the technological possibilities - i.e. that density is biased by an inability to record maximums correctly in very narrow rings but we do not believe this to be the case. I think some threshold may have been crossed that means the densities are limited in their ability to record high temperatures and of course it could be a drought type response in warm periods. These suggestions do not seem to be the answer - or at least all of the answer. Similar warmth before and less of an underprediction of temperatue then, plus the widespread (though not perfectly synchronous) manifestation of the phenomenon lead me to suspect synergistic influences. I really think that nitrates,CO2.tropospheric ozone - and ,certainly not least, increased uv could each or all be playing some part. As for calibrating transfer functions , I think we have to somehow adjust recent tree growth records or not use recent data in the calibrations! Please would you send me copies of your 1995 paper with Rosanne in Woodwell and Mackenzie,Eds. and the 1991 paper in the Fairbanks meeting proceedings, please. I will fax you a page from the EC report that went to Brussels in March. It refers to these points. Also did you know that you were criticised in a recent paper by Lloyd and Farquhar?(Functional Ecology, 1996,10,4-32. I am trying to get a backlog of stuff out , including our maps of degree day reconstructions in Russia and a short and a longer paper describing the stuff above. At the moment I would be happy if you did not therefore distribute the page I am faxing or this information until I can at least get the manuscripts sent off. We must also talk at length about PAGES and CAPE but I haven't got the time or stomach for it now!! as always best wishes to you Keith At 16:45 29/04/97 -0500, you wrote: >Keith: > >I am not sure where we are in our conversation. I thought you had a few >more comments about my comments. > >Anyway, about your comments on PAGES, etc. That is exactly the issue I was >raising, about CAPE becoming just a second generation of PALE. These narrow >initiatives are an abomination unless it is something unique like the >ice-core program. Why is paleoclimatology evolving into so many sub-systems >and acronyms. Many of them might fit under World Atmosphere Studies Toward >Environment and Circum-Arctic Studies of Holocene. One cynic who had a >brief fling with PAGES thought it was just an additional layer in the >bureaucracy of science. I am not sure I agree with him but the >proliferation of commitees under PAGES seems in danger of going out of >control. Eventually each paleoclimatologist will have their own committee >under GOTSUM (Group Organized To SUpport Me) CAPE should be broadened to >cover more with a single committee and replace some related groups. > >On a more productive science note: I have begun some analyses of the data >from our Taymyr chronologies and there is a noticeable change in response >to climate in recent decades. It is not as clear as the Alaska spruce >situation exactly what is happening but one cannot make simple models >assuming a constant relationship. I would assume you are aware of this and >wonder what your thoughts are. > >Gordon > > > 2258. 1997-05-05 09:44:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 5 May 97 09:44:43 +0500 from: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" subject: from Shiyatov to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, After our long silence we would like inform you about our sucesses, problems and plans. 1. The main success to our mind is the next. We have filled up the gap (1350-1250 BC) between the absolutely dated 3250-year Yamal chronology and the nearest floating chronology. It was happened few weeks ago using samples collected in 1996. Now there are no obstacles to develop in the nearest future the 7000-7500-year length continuous chronology. Now we are working with ancient samples: searching the places of missing and false rings, making more precise datings of individual chronologies and so on. During this time interval we have some problems. For example, no more samples were found up to now to confirm the absence of false ring near 360 BC. 2. This summer we intend to hold an expedition from the end of June to the middle of August in the southern part of Yamal peninsula to collect more samples of subfossil wood which have a great many of rings, are sensitive and cover the intervals represented by insufficient quantity of samples at present. We think that during this field season we must collect a necessary quantity of samples to develop a well represented 7000-7500 years chronology. Next year we intend to collect subfossil samples of wood from the middle part of Yamal peninsula to reconstruct the dynamics of polar timberline during the Holocene in detail using a large number of tree remnants absolutely dated by dendrochronological method. 2. This year we have a small grant the from the Russsian Science Foundation for developing the Yamal supra-long chronology (approximately 4000 USD). But we are not sure that all this sum we will receive. For example, last year we have received 37% from the promised sum of money. As cost of helicopter's rent is increased again this year (about $ 2.000 for one hour), we have the problem how to reach our research area in the Yamal peninsula. E. Vaganov have the same problem with organisation of field works over the territory of Taimyr peninsula. That is why we and E.Vaganov ask you to transfer each of us 7-8.000 USD until the end of June from the ADVANCE project, if it is possible. Last summer, when I was in England, you promised to help us with money to organise field works this year. 3. I am finishing a measurements of rings of subfossil wood samples collected last year on the surface and in one lake and some bogs in the Polar Ural Mountains. I found a little more ancient wood (not all samples are dated until now) and can prolong this chronology at least up to one hundred years. This summer I will be in the mountains and try to collect wood from other lakes. I want to develop the Polar Urals chronology for the last 2.000 years. 4. Now we are preparing the paper concerning Yamal project in Russian and we need to cite the paper prepared for Dendrochronologia in English. Could you send to us the last version of this articles by e-mail or by post? We wish you and your family the best. We wish the same to Phil Jones and his family. Sincerely yours Stepan Shiyatov and Rashit Hantemirov 781. 1997-05-13 15:38:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 13 May 1997 15:38:03 -0600 (MDT) from: ogilvie@spot.Colorado.EDU (Astrid Ogilvie) subject: Meeting in Reykjavik to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, It was lovely to see you and Sarah. See you again in June. This is info on my meeting in Reykjavik. Wish you could come! Astrid.>Date: Wed, 7 May 1997 15:37:29 -0600 (MDT) >To: ecdc.hist@dmi.min.dk >From: ogilvie@spot.Colorado.EDU (Astrid Ogilvie) >Subject: Meeting in Reykjavik >X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by spot.Colorado.EDU id >PAA22212 >Status: > >6 May 1997 > >Dear Colleagues and Friends, > >Regarding the meeting of the North European Group for Historical >Climatology, August 1997. Second circular. > >Considerable interest has been shown in our proposed meeting in Reykjavik, >Iceland in August 1997, and the organisers now need confirmation and titles >of talks from those who wish to attend. > >The keynote will be informality, but we shall be putting together a general >programme of papers. No firm decisions have been made on the publication of >papers arising, but we have had two lines of thought on this. One is that >we will not make any attempt to publish the papers. This is because we all >have our own publication plans and schedules, and some of us have found to >our cost that papers published in conference proceedings do not rate as >highly as papers published in peer-refereed journals. The other idea is >that we would consider approaching a journal with a view to producing a >special issue of that journal. > >The meeting will be held in honour of Erik Wishman and Knud Frydendahl, and >we are happy to report that they have accepted our invitation to attend the >meeting. > > >THIS MESSAGE WILL ALSO BE SENT TO ALL COLLEAGUES AT VEDURSTOFA ISLANDS (THE >ICELANDIC METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE) WHO ARE MOST WARMLY INVITED TO ATTEND, >EITHER JUST TO GRACE US WITH THEIR PRESENCE, OR TO PRESENT A PAPER, AS THEY >WISH. In this regard we wish to add a special invitation to Páll >Bergthórsson, former Director of the Icelandic Meteorological Office, and >distinguished pioneer in the field of Historical Climatology in Iceland. > >In order to accommodate the interests of as many group members (and >potential group members) as possible, we have chosen a farly wide time >frame, and a somewhat general theme for our meeting. The title will be:" >Climatic and Environmental History of Northern Europe and the North >Atlantic Region over the past 1000 years". However, we are also interested >in focusing on the so-called "Little Ice Age" in the manner of the meeting >held in Tucson in 1991 on the "Medieval Warm Period". This workshop >resulted in a special issue of the journal "Climatic Change", with an >editorial entitled: "Was there a 'Medieval Warm Period', and if so, Where >and When?". It might be profitable for us to think along these lines in >terms of: "Was there a 'Little Ice Age' in Northern Europe and and the >North Atlantic Region, and if so, precisely Where and When?" We hope that >this focus will produce some lively discussions, as well as some >interesting new data and ideas. In this regard, we may mention that we are >delighted that Jean Grove (we hope she will not mind if we term her the >"Little Ice Age" expert) has indicated her strong interest in attending our >meeting. > >Our meeting of the North European Group for Historical Climatology will >take place within the framework of a larger group meeting, that is a >meeting of NABO (The North Atlantic Biocultural Organisation). For those >unfamiliar with this group, it was founded in 1992, and your co-chair >Astrid Ogilvie was one of the original founder members. Astrid Ogilvie and >Paul Buckland (Sheffield, UK) are co-chairs of the NABO climate group. It >is because of Astrid Ogilvie's links with this group that we are joining >together with them for this meeting (and indeed benefitting from the >arrangements that they have been able to make with regard to meeting rooms >etc.) Astrid Ogilvie and Trausti Jonsson are working closely with Jón >Haukur Ingimundarsson who is the main organiser of the NABO meeting. > >NABO is a multidisciplinary, international, non-governmental, regional >research cooperative working to serve scholars interested in the >interactions of humans and changing landscapes across the broad and >critical region of the North Atlantic. While many members have a focus in >the traditional disciplines of, e.g. archaeology, anthropology, history and >geology, there is a common interest in issues such as global change >(encompassing environmental and climate history) and human dimensions >issues. Many members have a specific focus in the areas of geochronology >and bio- and zooarchaeology. NABO is supported by grants from the UK, USA >and Scandinavia, and currently has over 200 members from 46 institutions in >10 nations. As many of you will note, the name also means "neighbour" in >several Scandinavian languages. (For more information on NABO, please >contact: Sophia Perdikaris, Bioarchaeology Laboratory, Hunter College, >CUNY, 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10021, USA. Tel: 212 772 5655. Fax: 212 >772 5423. Email: tmcgover@shiva.hunter.CUNY.edu). > >The NABO meeting will start on Friday 1 August and run through Sunday 3 >August. The North European Group for Historical Climatology meeting will >run through Monday 4 August and half of Tuesday 5 August. It is anticipated >that the afternoon of Tuesday 5 August will be given over to discussions >and presentations of mutual interest between our group and NABO. The >meetings will be held in the building known as "Oddi" at the University of >Iceland, Reykjavik. > >We hope to have a conference dinner for our group (and interested NABO >members) on the evening of Tuesday 5 August. > >If there is interest in this, we may be able to organise an excursion into >the countryside surrounding Reykjavik (to include the beautiful and >spectacular site of the world's oldest parliament, Thingvellir) on >Wednesday 6 August. > >Also during our meeting, the organisers and co-chairs wish to consider >re-naming our group. Our current name is somewhat clumsy, and it would be >nice to follow in the tradition of NABO, with a pleasing and appropriate >acronym. As several of us work in the North Atlantic region, we are also >interested in discussing with current members whether we should widen our >membership to include those working more specifically in that area. As may >be seen from the list of those attending, there would almost certainly be >considerable interest in this idea. One suggestion that has been made is >that our new name could be "EACH" (for European and Atlantic Climate >Historians). The sense of this would also be that each of us has something >to contribute to our group. > > > >If you wish to attend the meeting(s) please send us the following information: >1. Name, including title >2. Affiliation >3. Mailing address, plus fax, phone and email >4. The title of your talk >5. The days you wish to stay in Reykjavik >6. If you wish to attend the conference dinner >7. If you would be interested in an excursion if we could arrange it. > >The following is a list of some of those who have so far expressed interest >in attending our meeting: > >1. Erik Wishman (Invited Guest of Honour), Archaeological Museum of >Stavanger, retired. >2. Knud Frydendahl (Invited Guest of Honour), Danish Meteorological office, >retired. >3. Heikki Vesajoki, University of Joensuu >4. Andy Dugmore, The University of Edinburgh, >5. Gaston Demarée, Meteorological Office of Belgium . >6. Peter Scholefield, Chief, World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme >Division, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland > >7. Peter Jönsson, University of Lund >8. Tadeusz Niedzwiedz and >9. Zbigniew Ustrnul, the Institute of Meteorology >and Water Management in Cracow, Poland. >10. Paul Buckland, University of Sheffield, >11. Jean Grove, University of Cambridge <100701.3655@CompuServe.COM> >12. Rudolf Brazdil, Massaryk University of Brno >13. Christian Pfister, University of Bern >14. Povl Frich, Danish Meteorological Office >15. John Andrews, University of Colorado, andrewsj@spot.Colorado.EDU >16. Aslaug Geirsdóttir, University of Iceland >17. Jorunn Hardardóttir, University of Colorado > (graduate student) >18. Ingibjörg Jónsdottir, University of Cambridge, > (graduate student) >19. Laryn Micaela Smith, University of Colorado >(graduate student) >20. Lisa Barlow, University of Colorado >21. Trausti Jónsson, Meteorological Office of Iceland >22. Astrid Ogilvie, University of Colorado and University of East Anglia > > > >Below follows additional information sent initially to the NABO group by >Jon Haukur Ingimundarsson. Please note that we are sure that many of you >will very much enjoy many of the talks given within the framework of the >NABO meeting. Note especially "The conference >promises to promote a lively, informative, argumentative dialogue, and it >will include sessions focusing on both broad (regionally, >theoretically-comparative, interdisciplinary/ multidisciplinary) and long >(past-present) views." > > >Best regards from Astrid Ogilvie and Trausti Jónsson, Co-Chairs > >Date: Wed, 30 Apr 1997 17:42:42 +0900 >From: JINGIMUNDARSON@anthro.arizona.edu (Jón Haukur Ingimundarson) >Subject: Re: Oddi meeting etc. >To: ogilvie@spot.Colorado.EDU (Astrid Ogilvie) > >Dear Colleagues and Friends, > >This summer's NABO meeting in Reykjavik has been planned for August 1-5 >(begins Friday morning; ends Tuesday afternoon). Sponsored by the >Department of Anthropology at the University of Iceland, it will be held in >Oddi, the Social Science Building, which has good facilities and equipment >(the cafeteria; projectors, computers, xerox machine etc.). Reiknistofnun >Haskola Islands, the computer center, provides certain equipment & >services which some of us will need--especially for computer package >demonstrations, printing and converting documents. It needs to be >mentioned here that at University of Iceland Microsoft stuff for Windows >(Word, Access, Excel) is being kept up while much DOS-based hardware has >been dumped. > >It now appears that the five day multi-purpose conference in Oddi will >attract a rather large, disparate group of scientists, many of whom >represent not only themselves, but larger research teams, institutes and >organizations. The conference consists of two closely linked meetings, or >session sets: Sessions organized by Astrid Ogilvie and Trausti >Jonsson--constituting the "Meeting of the North European Group for >Historical Climatology"--will take place during August 4th and the morning >of the 5th, and come under the title: " Climatic and Environmental History >of Northern Europe and the North Atlantic Region over the past 1000 years". >With a focus on "The Little Ice Age in the North Atlantic: Was this a real >event?" (or "Little Ice Age revisited"). The other parts of our >conference--sessions and events on August 1-3 and during the afternoon of >the 5th--come under the broad heading of "The 1997 annual >meeting of the NABO working groups." It is possible that Astrid Ogilvie may >be able to arrange visits to the Manuscript Insitute at the University of >Iceland (Stofnun Arna Magnussonar) to view some of the saga manuscripts. >Also, the meeting may include a >field excursion led by Andy Dugmore and colleagues, and possibly be >followed by a field trip to Eyjafjallasveit in southern Iceland. > >In brief and broadly speaking, the main subject/topical areas around which >this summer's meeting in Oddi will be organized are: 1) Human impact on >landscape/environment and terrestrial and marine resources, 2) Impact of >environmental & climate change on people and landscape & seascape, and 3) >Political ecology & economy, environmental policy & discourse, and >ecological politics (historical and contemporary foci). The conference >promises to promote a lively, informative, argumentative dialogue, and it >will include sessions focusing on both broad (regionally, >theoretically-comparative, interdisciplinary/ multidisciplinary) and long >(past-present) views. > >We will start off the overall conference (Friday morning) with short >introductions and discussions about NABO and its working groups (Models, >Northern farming ecology, Climate, Zooarchaeology, Maritime adaptations, >Dating, Museums..?), as well as other groups/organizations/institutes which >will be represented at the meetings. Then we will go to a series of short >presentations (with overheads, slides, computer as needed) and subject >focused, problem-oriented discussions and workshops--punctuated by a few >more formal and longer presentations (on hot topics, new findings and >projects, broad issues...). One full day will be given over to >presentations/demonstrations by geographical modellers and environmental >(resource) scientists, and to focused discussions between "data holders," >theorists and environmental modellers of human-environmental interactions >in the North Atlantic region. During these sessions we will try to achieve >an appropriate balance between discussion of empirical data and related >modelling, in order to integrate modelling experiments with the >environmental record, historical document information and archaeological >datasets. You will be receiving further information about of the >conference as things continue to come together. By the middle of May we >should be able to send out a preliminary schedule, including titles of >special presentations and names of speakers, and description of various >sessions & focus discussions. > >All the best for now, >Jón Haukur Ingimundarson >Co-chair, Northern Farming Ecology Working Group > >Below is my current list over people who have expressed interest in >participating in the conference. >Olafur Arnalds, Icelandic Agricultural Research Institute (RALA) > ola@rala.is >Gretar Gudbergsson, Icelandic Agricultural Research Institute (RALA) > blaskjar@vortex.is >Halldor Thorgeirsson, Icelandic Agricultural Research Institute (RALA) > fax 577-1020 >Asa Aradottir, The Icelandic Research Institute at Mogilsa > asarsr@isholf.is >Anna Gudrun Thorhallsdottir, The Agricultural College Hvanneyri > annagudrun@hvanneyri.is >Bjorn Thorsteinsson, The Agricultural College Hvanneyri > fax 437-0048 >Andres Arnalds, Iceland Soil Conservation Service > aa.landgr@isholf.is >Throstur Eysteinsson, Iceland Forest Service > throstur@isholf.is >Aevar Petersen, Natural History Museum of Iceland > aevar@nattsf.is >Haukur Johannesson, Natural History Museum of Iceland > Haukur@nattsf.is >Maria Hildur Maack, Education Institute Kria > kriamari@ismennt.is >Gudmundur Olafsson, National Museum of Iceland > fax 552-8967 >Bjarni F. Einarsson, National Museum of Iceland > fax 552-8967 >Gardar Gudmundsson, National Museum of Iceland > gardargu@rhi.hi.is >Mjoll Snaesdottir, Icelandic Institute of Archaeology > fax 562-1791 >Adolf Fridriksson, Icelandic Institute of Archaeology > adolf@worldnet.fr >Orri Vesteinsson, Icelandic Institute of Archaeology > orri@dircon.co.uk >Gisli Palsson, Department of Anthropology, University of Iceland > gpals@rhi.hi.is >Haraldur Olafsson, Department of Anthropology, University of Iceland > fax 552-6806 >Unnur Dis Skaptadottir, Department of Anthropology, University of Iceland > unnurd@rhi.hi.is >Gudrun Olafsdottir, Department of Geography, University of Iceland > gudrunmo@raunvis.hi.is >Olof Gardarsdottir, Institute of History, University of Iceland > gag@rhi.hi.is >Niels Einarsson, The University of Iceland Akureyri > ne@ismennt.is > >Andrew J. Dugmore, Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh > ajd@geo.ed.ac.uk >Andrew R. Kerr, Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh > ark@geo.ed.ac.uk >N. R. J. Hulton, Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh >T. J. Malthus, Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh >M. B. McCulloch, Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh >A. J. Newton, Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh >R. Purves, Department of Geography, University of Edinburgh >Ian Simpson, Department of Environmental Science, U of Stirling > ias1@stir.ac.uk >Paul Buckland, Dept of Archaeology and Prehistory, U of Sheffield, > p.buckland@sheffield.ac.uk >Ingrid Mainland, Dept of Archaeology and Prehistory, U of Sheffield > i.l.mainland@sheffield.ac.uk >Gudrun Sveinbjarnardottir, London School of Economics > g.sveinbjarnardottir@lse.ac.uk >Ingibjorg Jonsdottir, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University >Agnar Helgason, Department of Anthropology, Cambridge University > ash23@cam.ac.uk > >Hans Peter Blankholm, Department of Archaeology, University of Tromso > hanspb@isv.uit.no >Ivar Berglund, Department of Social Anthropology, University of Tromso >Morten Meldgaard, Danish Polar Center > mm@dpc.min.dk >Jette Arneborg, National Museum of Denmark > gs-ja@palais.natmus.min.dk >Philip Buckland, Dept of Archaeology, Umea University > phpbud96@student.umu.se > >Thomas H. McGovern, Dept of Anthropology, Hunter College of CUNY > nabo@voicenet.com ; tmcgover@shiva.hunter.cuny.edu >Thomas Amorosi, Dept of Anthropology, Hunter College of CUNY > nabo@voicenet.com ; tamorosi@ix.netcom.com >Sophia Perdikaris, Dept of Anthropology, Hunter College of CUNY > nabo@voicenet.com ; sophiap@erols.com >Astrid Ogilvie, Institute of Arctic & Alpine Research, University of >Colorado at Boulder > ogilvie@spot. colorado.edu >Lisa Barlow, Institute of Arctic & Alpine Research, University of Colorado >at Boulder > barlow@spot.colorado.edu >Noel D. Broadbent, US NSF Polar Programs, and Dept of Archaeology, Umea >University, Sweden > noel.broadbent@arke.umu.se ; nbroadbe@nsf.gov >Daniel Vasey, Dept of Cross-Cultural Studies, Divine Word College > dvasey@aol.com >E. Paul Durrenberger, Department of Anthropology, University of Iowa > pdurren@blue.weeg.uiowa.edu >Jon H. Ingimundarson, Dept of Anthropology, University of Arizona > jingimundarson@anthro.arizona.edu > > > > > > > Dr Astrid E. J. Ogilvie, Associate Director, > Institute of Arctic & Alpine Research > University of Colorado at Boulder > 1560 30th Street, Campus Box 450 > Boulder CO, 80309-0450, USA > Tel: 303-492-6072 Fax: 303-492-6388 > email: ogilvie@spot.colorado.edu > > > Dr Astrid E. J. Ogilvie, Associate Director, Institute of Arctic & Alpine Research University of Colorado at Boulder 1560 30th Street, Campus Box 450 Boulder CO, 80309-0450, USA Tel: 303-492-6072 Fax: 303-492-6388 email: ogilvie@spot.colorado.edu 3724. 1997-05-14 09:55:49 ______________________________________________________ cc: ckfolland@hc0100.meto.gov.uk, bhorton@hc0100.meto.gov.uk, j.kings@bham.ac.uk, Peter@westwind.demon.co.uk date: Wed, 14 May 1997 09:55:49 +0100 (BST) from: D Parker subject: Re: UK climate trends to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) To Mike Hulme Climatic Research Unit, Univ. East Anglia Mike Thank you for your message which adds momentum to our strategy of enhancing and coordinating research into UK climatic change. I am faxing to you a copy of the contract M/DOE/11/56 with Westwind Services. Note that: i). The analysis of the changes in frequency of atmospheric circulation types affection the UK is only the opening stage. We are well aware of your work in Internat. J. Climatol. 13, 655-663 (1993). However we have made the input daily MSL pressure fields slightly more homogeneous by making them consistent with the new monthly Global Mean Sea Level Pressure GMSLP2.1 dataset developed by Tracy Basnett. ii). Briony Horton is carrying out parallel analyses using the Hadley centre model simulations. l There is considerable potential for overlap between your deliverable (b) and the contract with Westwind Services. However, so much work needs doing in this area, that, given thorough coordination through the meeting you suggest, it should be possible for you, us and Westwind to pursue complementary lines of research, with positive feedbacks between each. Chris Folland would like to participate in the meeting which needs, therefore, to be before July 4th as he goes to Melbourne on 5th. He suggests July 1st. We are planning a meeting with Westwind on around June 18th: one outcome of this will be a more focused report than the one you read, and we could bring this to the meeting with you. Another basic area for consideration is the database of UK climate data. The Westwind project, and yours, need homogeneous long-term temperature and precipitation data as prerequisites for success. Within the Met. Office, the Observations Division (O-Div) has responsiblity for the maintenance and optimization of the observing network and the archival and accessibility of data and metadata. So there is a case for someone from O-Div to be involved in the discussions. I will copy this message to Eddie Spackman of O-Div for consideration. Did you receive our request for the replacement OLR precipitation trends diagram? Please ring me tomorrow (May 16th) so that we can agree the best words for you to fax to DoE. Regards David 14 May 1997 David E Parker Room H001 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Meteorological Office London Road BRACKNELL Berkshire RG12 2SY UNITED KINGDOM Tel +44-1344-856649 Fax +44-1344-854898 email deparker@meto.gov.uk > > David, > > As you will know, we have a contract with the DoE looking at datasets, model > validation and climate change detection. The next 2 years of this contract > is nearly finalised (we had a meeting with Geoff and DoE a fortnight ago). > One of the overlaps which came up was looking at UK climate trends (cf. > Westwind services). DoE seem to want us to devote a little of our contract > effort to these issues too (as specified in their invitation to tender - a > single action tender so no-one else is competing!). When we met with Geoff, > we weren't too sure what Peter Wright would be doing and I have now > discovered Peter is in the States until the end of May (we have to move > quicker than this, i.e., Thursday!). Geoff has sent me a March 1997 report > from Peter in which he is looking at airflow types from Lamb, comparing them > with the Jenkinson scheme, and in HADAM2 (by the way Phil and I had already > done the first two parts of this a few years ago). > > The section of text below is what I am putting into our contract with DoE on > this topic. We do not want to compete with Peter and clearly wish to > address one or two different issues. It would be very sensible, we think, > to have a meeting here later in the summer (maybe July with Peter, yourself, > Briony, etc., and us) so we can maximise our efforts here. > > In the meantime could you cast you eye over the text below and let me know > of any things > that I should or should not be saying at this point to DoE? I am in London > tomorrow - Wednesday - at an IJC Board Meeting, but need to finalise things > here on Thursday and fax them down to DoE. > > Your thoughts on this most welcome. If you care to talk with someone > tomorrow, then Phil knows the background and you could discuss it with him. > > > Thanks, > > Mike > > ___________________________________________________ > Work Package 5: Trends in the UK Climate and Detection of UK Climate Change > [6 person months; 1MH; 5TO; ca. =A321k] > > Until now, detection studies have focused on trends in global climate or in > the geographic (Santer et al., 1996) and vertical patterns (Tett et al., > 1996) of temperature change in the atmosphere. While these approaches > remain the most likely to result in significant detection outcomes, at a > regional scale there is increasing interest in whether observed trends in > climate can be a) detected, and b) attributed to human agency. This is > particularly true with regard to the UK, the climate of which has warmed > over recent decades and which has superficially experienced changes in other > climate variables. In this work package we will work in conjunction with > the Hadley Centre and Westwind Services to supplement on-going work into UK > climate trends. In particular, we will establish -with the Commercial > Services of the Met. Office - the homogenous England and Wales Precipitation > record (Jones & Conway, 1997) on a real-time basis to improve monitoring of > precipitation related anomalies in the UK. We will also extend our work > into airflow types and surface weather anomalies in the UK, looking at > trends in these relationships, links to the NAO, and also the extent to > which any trends can be found in climate model simulations. We will also > undertake some exploratory work into the feasibility of determining from > observed datasets changes in the ratio of frontal and convective > precipitation in recent decades. Many model simulations suggest that this > ratio should move in favour of convective precipitation as a result of > anthropogenic climate change (Osborn, 1997). > > A meeting will be arranged during the 1997 summer with Westwind Services and > the Hadley Centre to co-ordinate this work. > > Deliverables > > a. Establish, with Commercial Services, the real-time update of the > homogenised England and Wales Precipitation record (in a similar way to that > done for the Central England Temperature Record). > b. An analysis of airflow-climate relationships in the UK (including links > with the NAO) and a comparison with trends simulated by HADCM2, HADCM3 and > the Regional Model. > c. An exploration of the feasibility of determining from observations > changes in the mix of frontal and convective precipitation. > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------= > - > Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 > Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 > School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ > Norwich NR4 7TJ > > ****************************************************************************= 1469. 1997-05-16 17:28:32 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 16 May 1997 17:28:32 -0500 from: druid@ldgo.columbia.edu (Gordon Jacoby) subject: Your Paper to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Keith: Your paper is interesting and I would agree that it s a large-scale problem. I have also found the problem in the Taymyr trees. At one site there is a definite change and increase in moisture stress; at others the explanation is not obvious. For full understanding each site may have to be examined in detail. I have found individual sites/trees where the response to temperature is still continuing. The second sentence raises a point that I have mentioned to you before. A substantial number of the sites across Canada are in the boreal forest but nowhere near latitudinal or elevational treeline. The boreal forest is complex and should not be catagorized by a blanket "temperature sensitive" description regarding ring widths. I suggest a qualifying phrase to indicate something about the site variations.and not the use of the word "all". e. g. some were at lower elevations but still within the boreal forest. I have no firsthand knowledge of the sites in the US southwest but from other montane sites in the same regions, there is clear moisture stress even at some of the higher elevations. There is also the related problem of primarily selecting sites for temperature sensitivity and then using the same data set as representative of general forest growth conditions that relate to the CO-2 problem. I do not believe the problem will be solved by lumping grand arrays of data and regionalizing some varied gross impacts. It can be used to point out a serious problem but will not lead to real understanding of causes. Maybe just calling attention to the problem is your intent with this paper. Be explicit in the abstract that by "tree-growth records" you are referring to ring widths. The abstract makes the same point Rosanne and I made in the paper that you cite about the Alaska trees. In those particular trees, the effect of moisture stress was clear. On a personal note: I made a sincere effort at the IAI meeting in Calgary last fall to restart a cooperative mode in communicating with both Malcolm and Lisa. Then in the last hour they pulled their collective grab for control of the entire project by stacking a proposal committee with themselves. It subverted the whole concept of a communal, multi-institution, multi-disciplinary enterprise. I find it very difficult to work with someone who at every opening will try to take over any communal project. Cheers, Gordon 4001. 1997-05-19 15:24:28 ______________________________________________________ cc: rbattarb@geography.ucl.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, rbradley date: Mon, 19 May 1997 15:24:28 +0100 from: oldfield@pageigbp.unibe.ch (Frank Oldfield) subject: PEP III in the Implementation Plan to: gasse@geophy.geol.u-psud.fr Dear friends, It is my prilvilege and delight on this sunny Whit Monday afternoon to be finalising the text of our dear and much anticipated Implementation Plan. As one of the books I was obliged to learn my terrible french from in the 1940's said (for reasons I have never fully understood...it was sometimes hard to work out what Michel and Denise were getting up to... but the phrase sticks in the numbed and crumbling mind)... "Oh joie! Oh paresse!" There was a plan to put some stuff on Stream I into the Plan from the Beirville Meeting - it is even minuted in the Stellenbosch SSC notes. All I have is a Working Group report from Keith. I have created a new sub-heading ( STREAM I PRIORITIES) and used his text to put together a draft entry. In so doing I have deleted some bits that seem to be said elsewhere in the PEP III part of the Plan and I have changed odd bits where they need to be rephrased. Please can I have reactions from you all as soon as possible. Rick and Keith - does this still say what you mean and would you like to see it included? Francoise - est-ce que tu pense que ca sera bon de l'ajouter a ce qui est deje la? Y-a-t-il des idees dedans qui ne sont pas essentielles ou avec lesquelles tu n'est pas contente? (Et j'espere que ca va mieux pour toi). Please let me have your responses as soon as ever possible. I really must try to get this finalized before, like the Forth Bridge, the whole damn lot needs another coat of paint. ------------------------------------------------------------ STREAM I PRIORITIES Arisng from discussions at the September 1996 Bierville Meeting, the following priorities were identified:- * A major focus of PEP III Stream I research should be on establishing the degree to which 20th century climates are unprecedented. This must involve quantitative reconstruction of past mean climates on multi-decadal and century timescales as well as inter-annual variability and the frequency of extremes. * There remains a widespread preconception that the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Epoch were ubiquitous features of the climate history of the last two millennia. There is still a need to further clarify the definition of these concepts in terms of their character, extent and precise timing, even within Europe. More research is required to establish the extent to which the concepts of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Epoch are valid or relevant in other areas of the transect. Future research must attempt to clarify whether, if real, these phenomena represent unique events within the last 2000 years, and, if possible, in the context of the Holocene as a whole. * Traditionally, high-resolution studies within the Stream I timeframe have been very much concentrated in the mid-to-high latitudes of the northern part of the PEP III transect. In part, this reflects genuine difficulty in locating datable, high-resolution records in low latitudes and in the African part of the transect.The existence of numerous, long tree-ring chronologies in Morocco is an important exception. Some potential for other dendroclimatological studies in north and east Africa has been clearly demonstrated and the future development of this potential should be explored. * Given the problems of identifying annually resolved palaeosources in Africa, there is a need to explore other less-well-resolved sources, particularly where they might be represented across wide areas of the transect. The concept of a specific research initiative aimed at exploring climate proxies in the sediments of a series of African crater lakes along the East African section of the transect is considered worthy of prioritisation and a Workshop in Ethiopia in November 1997 has been provisionally planned. * Even in Europe, there is important potential for identifying and processing historical and early meteorological records. Some palaeo-series, produced perhaps decades ago, now require updating. * More research is required in order to identify and gauge the significance of anthropogenic environmental disturbance and the implications for palaeoclimate estimates calibrated against modern climate data. * Archaeological data have been underutilised in a palaeoclimate context. Collaboration between archaeologists and palaeoclimatologists, especially in areas with a tradition of detailed high-resolution archaeological work and historical and palaeoclimate proxies, should be promoted. Several regions, such as in the Mediterranean and in monsoon areas (particularly in Egypt) and in the south of Africa, are potential foci for such efforts. * Intense attention to accurate chronology is encouraged in situations where absolute dating is not feasible. This might involve multiple dating proxies. * Work to establish a detailed network of tephra histories in the circum North Atlantic Region and the possibility of developing a widely applicable tephra chronology to provide fixed dating points for many less-well-resolved data sources is noted. * Studies within Time Stream I should not be constrained by the 2000 year limit if longer timescales within the Holocene can be embraced with equivalent precision and accuracy. -------------------------------------------------------------- Over to you, Frank 1344. 1997-05-27 08:40:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: yiou@asterix.saclay.cea.fr, yiou@atmos.ucla.edu date: Tue, 27 May 1997 08:40:42 +0200 from: Thomas Stocker subject: Invitation to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith You may remember that Pascal Yiou, Michael Ghil and I are organising a NATO ASI in Les Houches. The date has now been confirmed and funding is well under way. The dates are Jan, 5-17th, 1998 and the title of the Study Institute is "Mathematical and Physical Tools for Climate Dynamics". When Pascal asked you lst time you had a conflict of date. I would like to ask you again, whether you'd be interested to participate. I should say that it will be quite a unique setting in which you and your tree ring research would fit in perfectly. For some uptodate information regarding the ASI please consult http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~yiou/houches98 You will see on these pages that Christian Pfister is a speaker for tree rings. This is a mix-up at the time the html was composed; please ignore it. If he comes, he will speak about historical archives, of course. Travel expenses, accommodation would be covered and your participation would consist of 1 to 2 90 minute lectures. The only "snag" is that lecturers are expected to prepare lecture notes which are then published in the famous NATO volumes. Let me say, once again, that your contribution to our NATO ASI would be indeed very valuable and nicely show the link between the mathematical models and the high-resolution proxy data. It would also be an excellent opportunity to familiarize the climate dynamicists with real data and the sophisticated statistical methods that are used to distill the dynamics from them. I am looking forward to your reply. Best Regards, Thomas ------------------------------------------------------------------ Thomas Stocker Climate and Environmental Physics Physics Institute stocker@climate.unibe.ch University of Bern Sidlerstrasse 5 phone: +41 31 631 44 64 3012 Bern, Switzerland fax: +41 31 631 44 05 ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1472. 1997-06-05 11:17:45 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 5 Jun 1997 11:17:45 -0400 from: drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu (Edward R. Cook) subject: Re: Your paper to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, One would think that your paper would be a slamdunk. But we all know how incredibly fickle Nature is. I got a call from Philip Newton (no doubt Isaac's direct lineal descendent. Nature wouldn't have it any other way!). He asked me to review a 2-page comment-style submission on Bayesian regression methods applied to tree-ring analysis. I wonder if it is from Van Deusen. He is the only one who has ever played with that stuff with tree rings. Seems the tone of the comment is that tree-ring scientists have been getting it wrong for all these years by using standard OLS. I'll let you know what it says when I get it. Ken is working on a general non-linear regression routine for fitting non-linear growth models to tree-ring series. He is generalizing the Hugershoff and general exponential models to allow for a positive asymptote, like the modified neg expon curve, and for allowing for an offset from the origin. As it stands now, the Hugerhoff and gen expon models assume that the first ring is formed at year t=1. We know that this is not the case in almost all cases. How it will all work in practice is yet to be seen. I also found an error in the modified negative exponential curve routine in the Tucson DPL version of ARSTAN. Seems it would not iterate properly and kicked out too quickly often giving near-linear fits to exponential growth trends. I validated it, with the help of Dave Meko, with 6 independent programs like MATLAB, SPSS, and Kaleidagraph. So, I sent my Fortran code to Richard and the error has been corrected. The corrected version of DPL ARSTAN is now on the Tucson ftp site. If you or anyone else uses it, please tell them. Henri suggested that I put out a notice on the forum, but I reckon that that is something that Tucson should do. Afterall, it's their baby ... with a few birth defects. I have been able to change my schedule and flight for Australia, so now I can make the session. I haven't hear from Phil yet on this, but I guess he will be pleased. Cheers, Ed 1851. 1997-06-05 14:06:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu Jun 5 14:06:36 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: Your paper to: drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu (Edward R. Cook) Ed, many thanks indeed for your comments. I agree about the carbon sequestration emphasis and to be honest I would be happy to tone that down or leave it out - the truth is that this was meant as a possible lead into a later paper on the increasing biomass on the longer term. We are ahead of you on the rotated PCA of the effect and in factoring out the decline in the density data by identifying it in a analysis of the rotated PCs. This stuff is for a more detailed (some would say scientific) paper - but is too detailed for a first (wider appeal!) description of the phenomenon. I too agree that soil moisture stress must play some part in this but I do not believe we have unprecidented conditions (summer precip. or temp) that explain this without the need to invoke a new synergistic effect - nitrate/CO2/UVb or whatever. This effect - and particularly in the density , is I believe real and important. I appreciate Gordon's comments too - but the effect is a valid signal even when identified on these spatial scales. We are justified in drawing attention to it and following up with a detailed analysis. For once I think this deserves the audience of a Nature paper which is why it will probably be rejected! We need you to do some work with us on this and I still want to get the means of doing this sorted. Please let us make it happen. Keith At 08:54 05/06/97 -0400, you wrote: >Hi Keith, > >I got your draft paper from Gordon, with his comments, and read it. It >reads pretty well. I would have emphasized things a bit differently, but >it's all a matter of taste. For example, I wouldn't have mentioned the >carbon sequestration thing, or at least would not have made it an important >issue. Rather, I would have emphasized the possible large-scale degradation >of a globally significant biome (or maybe ecotype, i.e. temperature-limited >trees), which is highly significant whether or not it relates in any >meaningful way to changes in carbon sequestration. I read Gordon's comments >and talked with him a bit about it. He is beating his usual >anti-Schweingruber drum in reference to lumping large swaths of data >without taking account of site differences. But he even admits, in his >written comments to you anyway, that it is a useful way to go as a first >cut in documenting the problem. > >Obviously, there are numerous ways to proceed with the analyses that would >answer many of the questions and criticisms that Gordon raises. It should >be possible to more objectively regionalize the data using rotated EOF >analysis. That would, perhaps, blunt that criticism. Also, doing the high >and low-pass filtering should enable one to indirectly determine the degree >to which a change in climate response (say temperature to moisture) is >involved. I am sure that Gordon is right about some sites have increasing >moisture stress, but I doubt that that is the main cause, or even one that >is of any significance in a large-scale sense. The main hypotheses I favor >are (not necessarily in order of importance): Arctic haze, excessively high >temperatures, and UV-B. However, I do favor the first two above UV-B. >"Maybe I don't know" (a Nepali saying). > >Cheers, > >Ed > > > > 4004. 1997-06-11 08:59:09 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 11 Jun 1997 08:59:09 -0400 from: drdendro@ldgo.columbia.edu (Edward R. Cook) subject: Re: Your paper to: Keith Briffa Hi Keith, I just got the paper from Nature to review concerning Bayesian methods of calibrating tree rings. Its title is "Implications of regression errors in proxy palaeoclimatic reconstructions" by Robertson et al. I think you know them because the tree-ring data they use for example is the dC13 data from oak. It is hard to see exactly what they are doing because the paper is a comment to Nature about 2 pages long. So, there is little description of the method. Their Bayesian method appears to do somewhat better then classical regression (just bi-variate between temperature and dC13), but not startling so (unlike their use of words like "substantially"). Also, they don't show any verification results. So, I am going to recommend that it be rejected and also recommend that a more lengthy paper on it be submitted as a forum article to The Holocene. What they claim is provocative enough to warrant it and they will have more room to describe the method. Cheers, Ed 1992. 1997-06-11 17:05:04 ______________________________________________________ date: 11 Jun 1997 17:05:04 U from: Macol Stewart subject: Georgakakos Proposal to: Mike Hulme REGARDING Georgakakos Proposal Dear Mike, NOAA's Office of Global Programs has received the enclosed Pilot Demonstration Project proposal as part of the follow-up activities to the Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa. I have also sent you a hard copy of the enclosed proposal, supporting materials, and letter requesting your assistance in reviewing the proposal. Due to potential delays in delivery, and in consideration of your busy schedule, I have elected to back up the hard copy by sending you an electronic version. I realize the burden which even a short 3-5 page proposal such as this can place on your already constrained time, and I hope that this electronic version will facilitate a timely review. Please feel free to use the electronic review form below. If you are unable to read the attachments (enclosed at WordPerfect 5.0), please contact me by e-mail (stewart@ogp.noaa.gov). I would be happy to fax you the PI's curriculum vitae in the event that you wish to review it prior to receipt of the hard copy. Thank you for your assistance. With best regards, Macol ENCLOSURES: Pilot Project Guidelines Proposal: K.P. Georgakakos, "Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of the Zambezi River Basin with Outlet at Livingston, Zambia" ----------------------------------- Dear Dr. Hulme: NOAA's Office of Global Programs has received the enclosed proposal as part of the follow-up activities to the Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa. Because of your expertise in areas covered by this proposal, we would appreciate your review. In light of the multidisciplinary nature of the proposal, it is clear that no reviewer will be an expert in all of the topics and methodologies proposed; therefore, please feel free to focus the majority of your review on those sections for which you feel most qualified to comment. The attached Pilot Demonstration Project guidelines encourage projects which enhance regional expertise to interpret and apply new forecasting capabilities in the areas of agriculture and food security, water resource management, public health, and forestry. At present, priority will be given to projects which begin the systematic distribution and application of experimental climate forecasts in selected sectors, evaluate the utilization of these forecasts, and document how early information can alter perceptions and change decision making (see attached information sheet). However, we recognize that some user groups may not yet be equipped to utilize experimental climate forecast information. In these cases, targeted research activities may be designed to lay the foundation for future Pilot Demonstration Projects by responding to critical near-term information gaps. We would like your review to concentrate on the following: * Relevance to the current program focus; * Scientific and technical merit (strong theory, well-identified methods, achievability etc.); * Usefulness of the results for societal application of climate forecast information; * Potential for links with other projects, researchers or users. Please use the form provided and return the review by 1 July. If you are sending the review from outside of the U.S., please send it by e-mail (stewart@ogp.noaa.gov), or fax (1-301-427-2082, Attn. Macol Stewart). If you find that you cannot provide us with this review personally, we would appreciate it if you would pass it to a qualified colleague or if you would suggest an alternate reviewer. If you can neither review it nor pass it on, please notify me promptly via electronic mail, fax, or phone (1-301-427-2089 ext. 38). The contents of this proposal should be treated as confidential, as will your identity as a reviewer. Your comments will be passed on anonymously to the principal investigator. In your cover letter, please inform us of any conflicts that may influence your ability to evaluate this proposal in an unbiased way. Thank you for your professional advice in evaluating this proposal. Sincerely, Macol Stewart Program Coordinator for Africa ------------------------------------------------ PILOT DEMONSTRATION PROJECT PROPOSAL REVIEW FORM PI: K.P. Georgakakos Proposal Title: "Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of the Zambezi River Basin with Outlet at Livingston, Zambia" SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL MERIT Rating (Excellent, Very Good, Good, Fair, Poor): Comments: RELEVANCE TO CURRENT PROGRAM FOCUS Rating (High, Average, Low): Comments: SOCIETAL APPLICATION of project results Rating (excellent, Very good, Good, Fair, Poor) : Comments: POTENTIAL FOR LINKAGES with other projects, researchers, or users Rating (High, Average, Low): Comments: -----------------END------------------ begin 666 Arkin/Graham/GeorgakakosWP5.0 M_U=00_8,```!"@```````/O_!0`R```````&``@```!"``````&J#```2@`` M``@``@```/0,````````````````"`!\`'@```!-04-.;W)M86P````````` M`````,L````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M``````````````````````%5!@`!_04!`0``Q`S$Q`C$Q`[$Q`?$Q`G$Q`#$ MQ`#$Q`#$Q`K$Q`W$Q`;$Q`7$Q`O$Q`#$Q`'$Q`+$Q`/$Q`3$Q`_$T``(```` M```(``#0T`$,``````"P!+`$#``!T-`""``````!"``"T-`#"````!L`"``# MT-`$T``````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M``````````````````````!8`K`$"`=@";@+$`YH$,`2&!5P%\@9(!QX'M`@ M*".`)=@G,"J(+.`N.#&0,^@U0#B8.O`\____________________________ M______\`````````````````#________[`$L`30``30T`4,``````"P!+`$ M#``%T-`&!@````8`!M#0!P8````&``?0T`@*``````````H`"-#9!0P````` M```````,``79T0`*``````````H``-'1`2```#H"?0#<'D06-`@`````$%`` M`MD,`````````"```='9!0P````````````,``79T@)4```````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````@22X@02X@,2X@82XH,2DH M82D@:2D@82D`````````````````````5``"TM(#H``````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M``````````````````````````#(`"P!L`0P`2H```````````##!<.-Q`7$ M`````````````````,,%PXW$!<0`````````````````L`2P!``````````` M``````````"@``/2T@2@```````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M`````,@`+`&P!``!*@```````````,,%PXW$!<0`````````````````C0`` M``````````````````````"P!+`$`````````````````````*``!-+3``P` M`````"X`+``,``#3TP$&```!!@`!T],%#@````````&$`P$`#@`%T],1"``` M`%53"``1T](%@``````````````````````````````````````````````` M`````````````````````````````````````"$``````!@`&``8`!@`&``8 M`!@`&`".```````````````````````````````````````````````````` M@``%TM(&@``````````````````````````````````````````````````` M`````````````````````````````````"$``````!@`&``8`!@`&``8`!@` M&`".````````````````````````````````````````````````````@``& MTM('@``````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M`````````````````````````````"$``````!@`&``8`!@`&``8`!@`&`". 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`UE>'!L;W)E('1H92!U2!P87)T2!PFD@4FEV97(@8F%S:6X@9F%L;',@<')I;6%R:6QY(&1U M2P@97-P96-I86QL>2!A M="!D96-A9&%L('1I;64@FD@8F%S:6X@=VET:"!G;&]B86P@4U-4FD@8F%S:6X@9'5R:6YG(&%UFD@3TQ2(&%N;VUA M;&EE2!R86YG92!B971W M965N(*DP+C0@86YD(*DP+C8@;W9E"!0;&%N8VL@26YS=&ET=71E($5#2$%-,R!!1T--+`UG879E('-I M;6EL87(@2!S=&%T:7-T:6-A;"!S8VAE;64@8F%S960@;VX@;V)S97)V960@ M4U-4 subject: Progress report? to: Keith Briffa Keith, The final version of the JGR paper has been submitted and will be published in July/August. Thanks again to yourself and Phil for writing it!! I would be grateful if the following message is treated confidentially. I've just returned from a week in Juelich. Although the trip was not related to the EC project we worked on the Irish data. To be honest the situation is a bit of a nightmare! The person that has done most of the work is Gerd Helle, who as far as I can see was NOT employed on the EC project in any capacity. They have all their carbon results, however there will not be any oxygen results until there is a continuous flow system (months??). We used a Gaussian filter to emphasise the year-to-year variability in a similar manner to the JGR paper and Gerd is working on a paper. They are very wary of the errors inherent in the mirrored ends of the 60 year Gaussian filter. Fair enough! Therefore they may compare the results to discrimination calculations - sounds good... As far as I'm aware there is no relative humidity data for Armagh - I've contacted John Butler there... The problem as you're aware is that there still doesn't appear to be a sense of urgency - I gather you indicated in the final EC report that the Juelich report would follow. Gerd has just got his PhD and now has time to work on the data. If you haven't given up, his e-mail is Gerd Helle . Along with Schleser they plan to come to Cambridge later in the year... Have you pulled all your hair out? Iain ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Iain Robertson + Godwin Institute for Quaternary Research + University of Cambridge + Tel ++ 44 (0)1223 334881 Free School Lane, Cambridge + Fax ++ 44 (0)1223 334871 UNITED KINGDOM CB2 3RS + Mobile ++ 44 (0)976 987908 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Godwin Institute homepage http://www.esc.cam.ac.uk/GIQR.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2830. 1997-06-17 11:30:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 17 Jun 1997 11:30:23 +0400 (MSD) from: From subject: message from Vaganov to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith sorry for late answer - was busy with annual meeting of Academy (several visits to Moscow and Novosibirsk). Thanks a lot for your efforts to get money to continue the field wood collection in Taymir. Also many thanks for your making the manuskripts. For my point of view your suggestion to bring money to Krasnoyrsk seems more acceptable that to send it with Fritz. We start with Taymir expedition in the end of August (just before the Krasnoyarsk meeting) and for short period I can easily to borrow the needed amount in Institute (because you'll be in Krasnoyarsk at Semtember 1-2). So, for me this variant seems better. Only one problem - transfer the cash money. You can use also the way to transfer on bank, but now there is only rigth way (without lost a money and overcome some bureacratic problems) - to transfer from your personal (privite) account to my bank account. Let me know, what you prefer? Regards, Gene. P.S. Did you receive my fin.report? 5193. 1997-06-18 13:57:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 18 Jun 1997 13:57:27 -0500 from: Joel Smith subject: Scenarios Chapter to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Hi Mike, How are you? It is almost that time to ask how one's summer is going. The weather is finally beautiful here. Only problem is to find the time to enjoy it. You may have heard that Jan Feenstra's group received more funding to revise the UNEP Handbook. There are several goals for this revision. One is to make it more acceptable to IPCC. This will mainly involve bringing in developing country co-authors. The second is to revise the chapters to reflect a new, somewhat different format. The attachment describes the new format (but, ignore the description of Section 2.4). The other change is the editorial board (of which I am a member) decided to elevate the Scenarios Appendix to a Chapter. Would you like to work with me on converting the appendix to a chapter? I enjoyed collaborating with you on the last go around and would enjoy another chance to work together. The editorial board met in Amsterdam a few months ago and Martin Parry expressed some general, (but vague) concerns about the scenarios discussion. I just sent him a fax asking him to give us specific comments. It seeems that we need to search out a co-author from a developing country. I don't feel that there is much productive another person can do on revising the main text of the chapter. You and I have something worked out and can best put the chapter in the new format (and address whatever comments Martin has) by working with each other. One thing a developing country could do is prepare a "box" describing the development of regional climate change scenarios for an impacts assessment. I'd be content with a description of SCENGEN based on work you have done with scientists in other countries. Another possibility is to use one of the many US Country Studies teams I worked with. I suggest we just add one co-author, since we'll need to offer them an honorarium. Speaking of funding, I need to check with Feenstra about what is going on. He may be sending funds my way to subcontract with you. I'd be happy to issue you a consulting contract. Let me check with Jan about this. Please let me know if you are interested in this. Joeo Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="CHPGUID3.W51" Content-Description: WordPerfect 5.1 Content-type: application/WordPerfect5.1 Attachment Converted: c:\eudora\attach\CHPGUID3.wp Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="CHPGUID3.DOC" Content-Description: WordPerfect 5.1 Content-type: application/WordPerfect5.1 Attachment Converted: c:\eudora\attach\CHPGUID1.wp 2574. 1997-06-19 15:17:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: dc_bader@pnl.gov, wanda.ferrell@oer.doe.gov date: Thu, 19 Jun 1997 15:17:06 -0400 from: Dave Bader subject: US Dept of Energy grant to: p.jones@uea.ac.uk Phil, (This is a follow up to our conversation in Asheville. The following is a form letter that contains all of the relevant information. Please let me know if you have any questions. Dave Bader dc_bader@pnl.gov) As part of the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Global Change research program evolution, we plan to integrate the research activities related to climate modeling and climate data analysis into a single program focused on improving decade to century climate prediction. This new program will have several complementary pieces, one of which will be a competitive research grant component. We currently are soliciting grant applications through a Federal Register announcement. You can access the announcement through the DOE WWW site, using the information appended to this message. As we implement this system for grants, which has been used for the last several years in all new programs developed by the Environmental Sciences Division, existing projects will not be automatically renewed. Specifically, this means that your project will not be renewed past its planned expiration date unless a new application is received in response to the announcement and is successful in the competition. Please feel free to call me should you have any questions. Sincerely, Dave Bader for Patrick Crowley and Wanda Ferrell, Climate Change Prediction Program Managers ------------------------------------------------------------------------ DOE Climate Change Prediction Program Grant Announcement (Follow-on to the CHAMMP, Climate modeling and Climate Data programs) The request for grant applications has been completed and was published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, May 27, 1997. The announcement also appears on the DOE Office of Energy Research Grants WWW site. http://www.er.doe.gov/production/grants/fr97_16.html Additional information about the DOE Global Change and Climate Research Programs can be found on the DOE/OHER/ESD WWW site: http://www.er.doe.gov/production/oher/ESD_top.html Also, appended below is the address to obtain the appropriate forms and information needed to submit a grant application. Please look this information over carefully before submitting an application. Dave Bader dc_bader@pnl.gov for Patrick Crowley and Wanda Ferrell, DOE CCPP Program Managers -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ER's Grants and Contracts Division (ER-64) has created a web site so that potential grant applicants could access the ER Grant Application Guide without requesting a paper copy via mail or phone. Also, ER's grant solicitation notices (about 15 per year) contain our web site address for easy access to the Guide. Please be mindful that the web is a very important tool to make the latest information available to our customers. Grant and contract procedures change frequently. With the web, our customers have immediate access to this new information while paper copies could become outdated very quickly. Also, a new section at the beginning of the Guide summarizes any significant changes so that a user who had viewed or printed the Guide earlier may know immediately what changes were made since they last viewed or printed it. Your cooperation is appreciated. The ER Grants and Contracts Web Site address is http://www.er.doe.gov/production/grants/grants.html. (The information above was adapted from a letter sent by John A. Alleva, Director, Grants and Contracts Division, Office of Energy Research(ER) April, 1997, to ER program offices.) 5206. 1997-06-23 14:24:01 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 23 Jun 1997 14:24:01 +0100 from: F IAN WOODWARD subject: Re: trees to: Keith Briffa > Date: Mon, 23 Jun 1997 13:41:05 +0100 > To: F IAN WOODWARD > From: Keith Briffa > Subject: Re: trees Dear Keith, Many thanks for the rapid response. > > Ian > I have just come back from Switzerland - trying to convince Schweingruber > (and Koerner) that the incresing basal area story is real. I have not > therefore sent off my paper but I am literally at my desk writing it. For > obvious reasons I am a little worried about the precise content as most of > the story (some reconstructions , the volcano story, the temperature signal > drift - and above all, the basal area study ) are all unpublished. > I am awaiting news of the temperature/growth drift from Nature and I > think I can show some basal stuff which will not compromise a submission to > Nature on this - the rest I don't mind about. This is not just > prevarication but I am now nearly through and will get off what will be a > relly uptodate contribution which I would have thought preferable to an old > hat submission! Please therefore support my reasons for tardiness and > intervene on my behalf with Bill Chaloner and The Royal Society. I will get > this off very soon now! So what do you say - feel free to pass on this plea > to the others. I would prefer any ms that was not old hat and, clearly you would have to reduce rather from your oral presentation anyway. Nearly through probably sounds good enough for me, and so I hope that this means, at the most, a couple of weeks. > As for your second point - I can get someone to order some corers from > Sweden and get them to you faster than we can get them from an American > supplier. You would have to pay them pretty sharply though. What size trees > do you have in mind? The corers are about 100 pounds or a bit less if small > - say 30 cms. I'll find out more details if you want me to. I can't really > let you have anything from here because all the decent ones went to > Ethiopia with a colleague of mine - but some may be back in a few weeks if > you can wait that long. > Yes, I am talking about 30 cms, and I will be quite happy to pay 100 pounds or so, I wasn't making an unsubtle attempt to borrow yours! So I would greatly appreciate details, or an immediate order, or similar, thanks in advance. With best wishes, Ian > get back to me and also put my mind at ease on the paper - please > > the best to you > Keith > > > > At 13:10 23/06/97 +0100, you wrote: > >Dear Keith, > > > >Two issues. > > > >The first, I hope that you have now sent your paper re the Royal > >Society meeting to Janet Clifford at the Royal Society. > > > >The second is more interesting. Could you tell me where I can > >purchase a tree corer? I would like to be able to age birch trees, > >probably up to an age of at most 80 to 100 years. Any ideas? > > > > > >With best wishes, > > > >Ian > > > >Professor F. Ian Woodward > >Dept. of Animal & Plant Sciences, > >University of Sheffield, > >Sheffield, > >S10 2TN, > >UK > > > >Tel.: +44 (0)114 22 24374 > >Fax.: +44 (0)114 27 60159 > >Email: F.I.Woodward@Sheffield.ac.uk > > > -- > Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, > Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom > Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > Professor F. Ian Woodward Dept. of Animal & Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK Tel.: +44 (0)114 22 24374 Fax.: +44 (0)114 27 60159 Email: F.I.Woodward@Sheffield.ac.uk 5323. 1997-06-26 12:09:35 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 26 Jun 1997 12:09:35 0100 from: Joseph Alcamo subject: Re: Climate Statement Version 4 to: Mike Hulme Mike, Thanks for your positive comments. If it's OK with you, I would like to take your comments into account in the next version of the statement (Version 5). In the meantime, I would like to take you up on your offer that you would distribute the current version (Version 4) for comment around the UK. The idea that Rob Swart and I have is to keep the circle fairly small right now so that we can have a good statement agreed upon by some prominent people before we send it out for signing. Therefore we would like to send the Statement to no more than about 5 or 10 rather prominent people in the climate scene in our respective countries. For example, I will be discussing it in the next few days with Schellnhuber, Grassl, Crutzen and others here in Germany. Who do you propose to send it to in the UK? (By the way, I already received comments back from S. Subak.) Another issue is what you use as a cover letter for the Statement. I think it is important either to send the cover letter you now have (signed by me) or a modified one (signed either by you alone or both of us) because it spells out the aims and intended audience of the Statement. What do you think? With best wishes, Joe Alcamo ------------R Diane diane@crseo.ucsb.edu Geography, Univ of California, Santa Barbara, USA SCIALDONE John N scialdon@killians.gsfc.nasa.gov Hughes-STX Corp, NASA EOS Data Information System, USAFrom ???@??? Tue Jul 01 10:11:21 1997 Received: from mailgate1.uea.ac.uk by cpca2.uea.ac.uk; (5.65/1.1.8.2/29Jun95-0305PM) id AA13175; Tue, 1 Jul 1997 10:03:54 +0100 Received: from hrz-sun1 (actually host hrz-sun1.hrz.uni-kassel.de) by mailgate1.uea.ac.uk with SMTP (PP); Tue, 1 Jul 1997 10:03:36 +0100 Received: from usf.uni-kassel.de by hrz-sun1 (SMI-8.6/SMI-4.1) id LAA03880; Tue, 1 Jul 1997 11:03:35 +0200 Message-Id: <199707010903.LAA03880@hrz-sun1> Received: from USF1/SpoolDir by usf.uni-kassel.de (Mercury 1.31); 1 Jul 97 11:03:31 +0100 Received: from SpoolDir by USF1 (Mercury 1.31); 1 Jul 97 11:03:03 +0100 From: Joseph Alcamo To: Mike Hulme Date: Tue, 1 Jul 1997 11:02:55 0100 Subject: Re: Climate Statement Version 4 Reply-To: alcamo@usf.uni-kassel.de Return-Receipt-To: alcamo@usf.uni-kassel.de Priority: normal In-Reply-To: <3.0.1.32.19970630205429.006fba58@pop.uea.ac.uk> References: <199706261010.MAA00971@hrz-sun1> X-Mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v2.53/R1) Status: Date: Mon, 30 Jun 1997 20:54:29 +0100 To: alcamo@usf.uni-kassel.de From: Mike Hulme Subject: Re: Climate Statement Version 4 Joe, I can approach a few people over here if you wish, using your cover letter with a couple of amendments and signed by me and you. That would be great! One question to be clear about is how is it going to appear in public - as an independent statement or under the umbrella of some organisation? This is the current idea: 1. You, Rob Swart and I should first consult with a manageable-number of people about the content of the Statement. The three of us would act as "Coordinators" of the Statement. 2. After this fairly small group agrees on the content of the Statement we should try and convince ten or so "prominent" scientists from different parts of Europe to be official signers. The names of these prominent people would appear on the same page as the Statement. Rob and I have not discussed who these ten people should be. Some could be from the original circle that we consult in step 1. 3. After "The Ten" have signed on, we need an enthusiastic organization to carry out the time-consuming task of collecting as many signatures of scientists in Europe as possible, so that we can say "1,865 European scientists, including (the prominent ten) have signed a Statement that says .. and so forth". I don't think that either you or Rob or I have the time to do this. For the American statement this job was done by an organization called "Redefining Progress". Perhaps for us it could be WWF. What do you think. 4. The last step would be to hold a press conference(s) to announce the Statement. For this we would try and get as many of "The Ten" as possible to attend. My idea would be to aim for the AGBM meeting in October, when the debate should be pretty hot, and media interest in anticipation of Kyoto should be increasing. People here I would think of are: Martin Parry Kerry Turner Melvyn Cannell Mick Kelly Michael Grubb David Carson What about John Mitchell? I would also limit number to about five at this point. e.g. In the coming two weeks I will speak to Schellnhuber, Jill Jaeger, Grassl, and maybe two others about the Statement. Best regards, Joe Alcamo ---------------------------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Kurt Wolters Strasse 3 D-34109 Kassel Germany Phone: +49 561 804 3898 Fax: +49 561 804 3176 2803. 1997-07-07 13:39:41 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 07 Jul 1997 13:39:41 +0100 (BST) from: J Mitchell subject: Re: your advice sought to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk (Mike Hulme) Hi Mike, 1. Can you send me the message in plain text - I couldn't read it 2. Gabi Hegerl is here. We are interested in the state of the NAO in HadCM2 which Tim has been looking at. Can you FAX pictures of the NAO index (model and observed) so we can make some subjective judgement on (a) the frequency (b) the amplitude (c0 the pattern of the model relative to obsevations thanks John > > --=====================_867848803==_ > Content-type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > Dear John, > > Please read the attached letter and statement which you will find > self-explanatory. 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//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// > //8BAP7/AwoAAP////8GCQIAAAAAAMAAAAAAAABGGAAAAE1pY3Jvc29mdCBXb3JkIERvY3VtZW50 > AAoAAABNU1dvcmREb2MAEAAAAFdvcmQuRG9jdW1lbnQuOAD0ObJxAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA > AA== > --=====================_867848803==_ > Content-type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 > Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 > School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ > Norwich NR4 7TJ > > **************************************************************************** > *** > NOW PUBLISHED: 'Climates of the British Isles' (eds. Hulme,M. and > Barrow,E.M.) > Have a look at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/cotbi/ > **************************************************************************** > *** > > Mean temp. in C.England during 1997 has been about 1.0degC above the > 1961-90 average. > The maximum temperature in Norwich: Tuesday 1 July: 16.1degC. > --=====================_867848803==_-- > 723. 1997-07-09 16:40:37 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 9 Jul 1997 16:40:37 +0100 from: Elaine Barrow subject: SPECTRE to: Mike Hulme Mike, There is a slight problem with SPECTRE. If you select UKTR, IS92e and the max temp. change and then look at the graph for Santon Downham in the extremes section for maximum temp, you'll see a warming which is off the scale. I have checked the figures for this site and they are correct - the problem is that it is in a land grid box and for August and September there appears to be an anomalous warming cf. the other months (3.2 and 3.8 deg C, resp. cf. approx. 1 for the other months). Either the scale needs adjusting, or we need to fudge the figures... I'll let you know if I find anything else. Elaine Elaine Barrow Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ Tel: 44 1603 593162 Fax: 44 1603 507784 Email: e.barrow@uea.ac.uk WWW: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk 2756. 1997-07-18 08:27:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 18 Jul 1997 08:27:22 BST from: Janice Darch subject: Battelle & US DOE (fwd) to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk Mike and Phil, Are you happy with this arrangem,ent? It seems fine to me and avoids alot of hassle. Janice Forwarded Message: From: Tom Wigley Date: 17 Jul 1997 23:51:07 -0600 Subject: Battelle & US DOE To: Janice Darch Cc: Mike Hulme , Phil Jones , Sarah Raper Dear Janice, Here is the situation regarding US DOE and Battelle. In US DOE, there is money earmarked for me. In a current Battelle contract that I have, there is money for CRU. This is Part 2 of an earlier Battelle contract. CRU actually did get money under Battelle Part 1, and Mike Hulme should have been aware of the situation under Part 2. However, this is irrelevant. As it happens, CRU has done nothing under Part 2---I've done all the work myself. What I plan to do now (a change from my earlier idea) is to use the notional CRU money in Battelle Part 2 for me, and leave the notional TMLW money in US DOE in CRU. The amounts are similar, so there are no winners and no losers. Logistically, this is much easier---no paperwork whatsoever! If you agree we will cancel our request for a sub-contract with CRU for the Battelle work. The bottom line is that you can use the TMLW money in US DOE for whatever is advantageous to CRU (within the terms of reference of the proposal). Cheers, Tom ________________________________ Dr J P Darch j.darch@uea.ac.uk Research Administrator, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Tel: +44 (0)1603 592994 Fax: +44 (0) 1603 507784/507719 5204. 1997-07-22 16:46:46 ______________________________________________________ cc: rbattarb@geog.ucl.ac.uk, K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk, jacques-louis.2-beaulieu@VMESA12.U-3MRS.FR, beaulieu@dialup.francenet.fr, gex012@coventry.ac.uk, WME@WPO.NERC.AC.UK, fellous@medias1.cst.cnes.fr, joel.guiot@VMESA12.U-3MRS.FR, lakes@dungbeatle.planteco.lu.se, lakes@dungbeatle.planteco.lu.se, E.Gibert-Massault@iaea.org, Stephen.Juggins@newcastle.ac.uk, s.kroe@uni-koeln.de, Stein.Lauritzen@geol.uib.no, s.leroy@qub.ac.uk, magri@uniroma1.it, jan.mangerud@geol.uib.no, fmitchll@sun1.tcd.ie, neg@gfz-potsdam.de, matti.saarnisto@gsf.fi, bmueller@geo.unibe.ch, paul.sinclair@arkeologi.uu.se, seret@page.ucl.ac.be, F.A.Street-Perrott@swansea.ac.uk, Michael.Talbot@geol.uib.no, fabio@boigm2.igm.bo.cnr.it, vanj@geo.vu.nl, oldfield@pageigbp.unibe.ch date: Tue, 22 Jul 1997 16:46:46 +0100 from: gasse@geol.u-psud.fr ( françoise gasse) subject: EUROPEP failure to: daniel@erdw.ethz.ch Daer all, 1- EUROPEP FAILURE. I am sorry. I was waiting for the official information from Bruxelles, that I received today, about the failure of our EUROPEP concerted action proposal.The reviewers were unconvinced about the usefullness and/or the efficiency of a pluriproxy data base. The marks given at Stage 1 were not too bad, but those of stage 2 (i:European dimension and added EU value; iii) Economic, societal and enviornmental benefits or risks; iv) relevance and contribution to Union policies) were relatievly very low........... I can of course send the details of the report by mail on request. So, I have just to thank you for your enthousiasm and your help concerning the died EUROPEP 2. A PEP III-brochureincluding the BIERVILLE WORKSHOP REPORT. I was also waiting for the EU results to finalize the report; the presentation and conclusions would have been different... .In attachement, you will find the draft, that Frank Oldfield and I have worked on. Every suggestions, additions, corrections will be welcome.. It is still time to add a short abstract on your field research if not done...It should help to sail PEP III elsewhere.... Sorry for disturbing you again but: THE URGENT QUESTION IS ILLUSTRATIVE MATERIAL. MAY I RENEW MY REQUEST FOR GOOD ILLUSTRATIONS: photographies, graphs.... preferentially by e-mail in PICT or TIFF format (scanned photographies). It is still time to add a short abstract on your field research if not done (I did not receive so many....). The report must be achieved by August 20 for publication in 1997. Thanks again to all of you Yours Francoise Francoise Gasse URA CNRS 723- Laboratoire d'hydrologie et geochimie isotopique Bat 504 - Universite PARIS XI - 91405 ORSAY FRANCE tel : 33 (0) 1 69 15 67 56 - Fax : 33 (0) 1 69 15 49 32 ou 49 17 e-mail: gasse@geol.u-psud.fr 3810. 1997-07-24 03:13:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 24 Jul 1997 03:13:50 -0400 from: Ray Bradley subject: ice core data to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk Hey guys: Dave Fisher said you might be able to send me the stacked ice core record; he has disappeared for 2 weeks camping and said to contact you if I needed it faster than that (which I do....): "The central west Greenland time series now includes about 5 more long series and is called DELNORM6.CWG instead of DELNORM3 which is the version you have. The new version has new series from around Summit and it also includes the GISP2 series. It is the one I hand out under the grand title of "super stack". Phil Jones and Keith Briffa have copies and have I believe used it already ..." Second: Mike Mann would like to know how confident you are in the SOI record before 1881....he is using it in verification and wants to know if it's crap. Third: KEEF: are you going to accept the PAGES invitation to the Open meeting? Thanks Ray Raymond S. Bradley Professor and Head of Department Department of Geosciences University of Massachusetts Amherst MA 01003-5820 U.S.A. Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 Climate Lab. Tel: 413-545-0659 Climate Lab Home Page: http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/climate.html 1826. 1997-07-25 21:44:26 ______________________________________________________ cc: Mike Hulme , Phil Jones , Sarah Raper date: 25 Jul 1997 21:44:26 -0600 from: Tom Wigley subject: Battelle & US DOE to: Janice Darch Dear Janice, With regard to your message of July 18; "I'll be back to you once Mike and Phil have had a chance to discuss it." ... There is nothing to discuss. There is no contract or formal arrangement with CRU for Battelle Part 2. The money is mine to do with as I decide, and I have decided to spend it here. If I had given part of this to CRU, it would have been just that --- a gift. For US DOE, CRU has both a personal and contractual commitment to give some money to me. Not only that, CRU has failed to fulfill this obligation for the previous two years of the US DOE contract --- something I find quite annoying. By not demanding this money, I am essentially *giving* a considerable sum to CRU. I'm sorry to have to point this out to you, but obviously I do. When I said in my last email that there were no winners or losers with this arrangement, I was wrong. CRU is the winner and I am the loser. Regarding the issue of whether the work will be done, this is of no concern to CRU for the Battelle work. For US DOE, it is an issue that Phil, as the in-house PI, should be concerned about. As far as I can see, however, there is no problem here. As always, CRU has done far more per $ that any other US DOE grant recipient. Cheers, Tom 3911. 1997-07-30 11:51:25 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 30 Jul 1997 11:51:25 +0100 from: "Dr. David Viner" subject: HADCM2 Request to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, gjjenkinks@meto.gov..uk Do you have any comments on the following e-mail from Joel Smith? Cheers David >Date: Thu, 24 Jul 1997 16:15:33 -0500 >From: Joel Smith >To: d.viner@uea.ac.uk >Cc: gpitts@habaco.com, slenhart@habaco.com >Subject: Hadely Centre Model >Mime-Version: 1.0 >Status: > >Hi David, > >We have been asked by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to prepare a >guidance document for state governments to use in conducting vulnerability and >adaptation assessments. EPA intends to use this guidance in conjunction with >training workshops for state staff and hopes to prepare a single report >summarizing the results of state-level assessments. > >As part of the guidance document we would like to describe some of the most >recent GCM runs and explain how they should (and should not) be used to create >climate change scenarios. We hope to include a description of the Hadley >Centre >model (with aerosols) and would like to request permission to distribute the >Hadley data to individual states. Please contact me if you have any questions >about the guidance or any concerns about how the data would be used. > >Thank you for your assistance, > >Joel > #-------------------------------------------------------------- # Dr. David Viner # Climate Impacts LINK Project # Climatic Research Unit # University of East Anglia # Norwich NR4 7TJ # UK # E-Mail: d.viner@uea.ac.uk # WWW: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link # http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link/eclat.html # Tel: +44 (0)1603 592089 # Fax: +44 (0)1603 507784 #-------------------------------------------------------------- 4548. 1997-08-03 15:30:45 ______________________________________________________ cc: hzimmerm date: Sun, 3 Aug 1997 15:30:45 +0100 from: oldfield@pageigbp.unibe.ch (Frank Oldfield) subject: Open Science Meeting - additional flier to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, messerli@giub.unibe.ch, patrick.dedeckker@anu.edu.au, ztguo@mimi.cnc.ac.cn, laurent.labeyrie@cfr.cnrs-gif.fr, lautenschlager@dkrz.d400.de, yugo@geoeco.hokudai.ac.jp, gbpant@tropmet.ernet.in, 141tcp@cosmos.wits.ac.za, jto@paleosun.ngdc.noaa.gov, tfp@unixg.ubc.ca, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu, domraynaud@glaciog.grenet.fr, wfr5c@virginia.edu, evag@ifor.krasnoyarsk.su, miriondo@alpha.arcride.edu.ar Dear colleagues, At the recent meeting in London with the co-sponsors of the Meeting in UCL and RHUL, we agreed that it was essential to seek additional external sponsors and key 'policy-linked' participants as quickly as possible. We also agreed that in order to do this, we needed a quite diferent kind of flier designed specifically for the purpose. I have tried to draft the possible outline of such a flier as a matter of great urgency. I am hoping it may be possible for Cindy to convert it into reality very quickly indeed - by mid-August at the latest. I therefore need your critical comments on the attached by return in e-mail or fax. I find it a very difficult job since I sense a need both to present something brief and simple for some target groups, yet to give enough detail to convince others that we are not simply puffing out hot air. I badly need reactions from all who are reached by this. I have circulated a formatted e-mail version less widely by FAX - please let me know if you would like to see this. The leaflet, as presently designed, would be 4 pages, with interspersed colour graphics if and where possible. I would not think to produce more than, say 200. It could also go on the web. REACTIONS PLEASE. With all good wishes and thanks in advance, Frank -------------------- PAGES 1 The First IGBP PAGES Open Science Meeting Royal Holloway University of London April 19 - 23, 1998 'Understanding the past for a better view of the future' The Past Global Changes (PAGES) project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) works towards a better understanding the earth's past environment and its natural variability, above all as it affects our ability to predict and respond to future climate change. It therefore focuses on those aspect of past global change that are of greatest relevance to future policy issues. The first Open Science Meeting of PAGES will be a major international landmark in the development of an area of science that makes crucial contributions to future planning and management for human welfare in a changing environment. The Meeting will take the form of a carefully planned sequence of invited overview papers by some thirty experts drawn from all over the world, interspersed with poster sessions illustrating the best scientific research in the field. The final afternoon will include a Panel Discussion addressing future policy issues on a global scale in the light of the presentations made at the Meeting and the needs of present day decision makers. PAGE 2 Past Global Changes and their Significance for the Future The majority view among informed scientists is that human activities, by increasing the concentration of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere, will have a discernable influence on global climate in the next century. The magnitude and nature of this impact is still very hard to estimate, but two things are quite certain:- … Whatever the impact, it will be superimposed on and interact with natural variability as recorded in the record from the past … The alternative to a future climate modified by human activity is not a stable one - natural climate variation has occurred and will continue to occur on all timescales and it affects people and their livelihood in ways that are still hard to predict and plan for. Both points reinforce the need to document and understand the course of past climate variation, its causes, regional expression and consequences. Among the needs of policy makers concerned with future global changes and their impacts on human society are the following:- … a range of possible future scenarios that are consistent with both empirical evidence and theory, can be articulated at global, regional, and preferably national and local level, and can form a framework for policy making … an increasingly realistic assessment of the balance of probabilities within the range of scenarios presented … some indication of the potential rates of change under realistic forcing and feedback conditions … a robust framework within which to assess the possible future resource implications both of predictable trends and of changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events such as severe droughts or floods The notes that follow give a brief outline of some of the key ways in which PAGES Science helps to meet these needs. PAGE 3 The highly focused research agenda of PAGES Science provides essential evidence underpinning the information and advice needed of policy makers by:- … reconstructing the history of forcing mechanisms and their effects. Links between forcing mechanism such as solar variation and volcanic activity and the response they generate in the earth's climate must be established through studies of past events, as well as modelled and explained in theoretical terms. These forcing processes will persist through and interact with any greenhouse gas effects. We need to know much more about how they have affected past climate before we can assess their future significance. … documenting the internal dynamics and feedback effects that modulate climate changes from seasons to centuries.. These too will interact with and modify any human-induced changes that may occur and they will happen even in their absence. They often involve complex leads and lags that can only be explored in the evidence from sources such as tree rings, corals, ice cores and sediments that allow us to reach beyond the short time span of instrumental records. They affect the way in which we interpret present day trends and they will strongly affect the course of future changes. To predict their future impacts , we need to greatly improve our knowledge of their pattern and amplitude in the past. … providing data for developing, testing and validating climate models. Model simulations of the earth's climate system often highlight particular areas and processes of key importance for improving their validity and predictive power. This in turn requires that evidence from the past is refined in order to test the models against reconstructed past conditions. Models form one of the major links between empirical science and policy. To be fully effective in simulating future climates, they need testing under different boundary conditions and this can only be done with reference to our knowledge of the past. Unless models can achieve an adequate level of realism in their simulations of the past, their value in future prediction remains in serious doubt. Working alongside modellers is one of the key roles of PAGES. Many past climate changes are global in their effect and can be traced as simultaneous responses in both hemispheres and from the equator to the poles; but the way these changes are expressed varies greatly from place to place. The challenge for PAGES is to understand the global mechanisms and document the regional effects. Both are vital for model development and validation, hence for reducing uncertainties in future prediction. … refining our knowledge of the past role of greenhouse gases during rapid warming episodes.. The parallel trends in past global temperature, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations, as revealed in ice core records, provide one of the most dramatic arguments in favour of future greenhouse gas warming, but the precise phasing of and the processes reponsible for the parallel changes in temperature and gas concentractions need to be more fully understood before the future implications can be confidently established. Only the historical record contains the evidence needed to resolve these crucial issues. PAGE 3 … estimating the probability of major instabilities in the earth system under warm climate conditions. It is now clear that the earth's coupled ocean-atmosphere system has been highly unstable in the recent geological past, with massive swings of ocean circulation and associated dramatic changes in climate taking place over the space of a few decades at most. Even though such dramatic 'switches' are more typical of cool, glacial times, there is growing evidence that they cannot be excluded from the range of future possibilities in a warming world. Many lines of evidence from sources as diverse as tree rings and sediments show that even during the warm period since the last glaciation - the period we live in now - climate varied over a much greater range than instrumental records would lead us to believe. The recorded impact of these past, natural variations on, for example, lake levels, river regimes and the incidence of extreme events like droughts and floods, lies beyond the range that human planning envisages. Such impacts would also lead to changes in the resource base of human populations well beyond the scope of adaptation within many social and economic systems. There is also growing evidence for sudden, major changes in climate during the warm period before the last glaciation, the Eemian Interglacial. All these warm climate fluctuations need much fuller investigation, since they may hold part of the key to estimating the likelihood of similarly dramatic changes in the near future, changes that would have human consequences well beyond the range of recent experience. … documenting the impact of past environmental changes on human resources and activities. The record of the past contained in historical documents, sediments, peats and the like is rich in illustrations of the ways in which climate change and human activity have been closely interwoven. It is not a simple story, for the impact of climate variation through extreme events for example, is often in part a function of the pattern of human resource use at the time. Human activities create the canvas upon which climate variation expresses its consequences for people, their welfare and their very survival. One of the responsibilities of PAGES is to improve our understanding of these interactions so that future resource management and environmental policy can learn from the lessons of the past. The goals of the PAGES Open Science Meeting are to present the 'state-of -the-art' in these vital research areas, to identify the most urgent future challenges for all those involved in PAGES activities and to optimize interaction between PAGES Science and the formulation of future policy, especially in the areas of environmental planning and resource management. Academic co-sponsors of the Meeting are The Environmental Change Research Centre, University College London and the Centre for Quaternary Research, Royal Holloway University of London. Further information and updates on plans for the Meeting are available from the IGBP PAGES International Project Office,Bärenplatz 2, CH 3011, Bern, Switzerland. e-mail - pages@ubeclu.unibe.ch PHONE:- + 41 31 312 3133; FAX:- + 41 31 312 3168 http://www. pages.unibe.ch/pages.html ____________________________________________ Frank Oldfield Executive Director PAGES IPO Barenplatz 2 CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland Phone: +41 31 312 3133; Fax: +41 31 312 3168 http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html 2576. 1997-08-05 15:22:27 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 5 Aug 1997 15:22:27 BST from: Susan Subak subject: Protocol Projections to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Hi Mike, The one-pager was sent to Bonn on Saturday, and an email version went out over Clim-L and to WWF's paper, also some media mailings. What do you think of this letter to the New Scientist? This is based on a tip from Mick about how to get Fred Pearce to write a story. August 4, 1997 Fred Pearce New Scientist Stamford Street London SE1 9LS Dear Fred Pearce, Enclosed is a briefing sheet we recently prepared for the FCCC talks for the two sessions leading up to COP3 in Kyoto. Please feel free to incorporate these results into a piece, or we could write it up as a NS article ourselves, if you suggest. In isolation, these proposed cuts would not lead to a significant reduction in global warming, says Subak. Industrialized countries would need to sign onto more stringent cuts after the 2000-2020 period under negotiation, and an agreement would need to be made with developing countries to slow the growth in their emissions. These protocols are an important first step, Subak said. While the EU protocol involves less stringent cuts of carbon dioxide and in a longer time frame than the AOSIS protocol, says Subak. It should achieve an equivalent reduction in temperature because the target also encompasses the other greenhouse gases. The proposed greenhouse gas emissions protocols are not significantly different in their implications for future temperature, says Subak. Countries should support protocols instead on the basis of cost, burden-sharing and verification. In the nearer term, trends related to the emission of sulfur from coal will have a more important impact on climate change than will the control of greenhouse gases, Hulme said. Because the atmospheric residence time of sulfur dioxide and other aerosols is short-lived compared with greenhouse gases, says Hulme, the relative cooling effects of aerosols will diminish over time, because the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will eventually far outweigh future aerosol emissions, Hulme said. Both of these sulfur scenarios assume a rather high reliance on coal in the future, says Hulme. For a given scenario of carbon dioxide emissions, if a higher share of oil, gas and renewables were assumed instead, sulfur emissions and hence cooling would be lower and the projections would show a greater temperature increase than shown here, said Hulme. I hope that this briefing is of interest. Sincerely yours, Susan Subak 3176. 1997-08-11 21:23:03 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 11 Aug 1997 21:23:03 from: Sirje Keevallik subject: unep to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, I try to send you by Attachment a very first draft of my piece. Please feel free to correct my mistakes as well as to tell me if something is missing or something should be removed. Additionally, I have got one question, two comments and two problems. 1. My version of SCENGEN contains 14 GCMs. In your text you show that the number is 11. Which GCMs have been left out? 2. You should point out in your text more clearly that CHANGES can be estimated only on a grid of 5 degrees and that a resolution of 0.5 degrees can be obtained only when these changes are added to basic climatology. 3. At first I tried to get scenarios that correspond to extreme parameter combinations (MAGICC + emissions scenarios). This ended up with rather unbelievable results: According to ECHAM3TR, the maximal warming in January will be 17 degrees by 2100. To my mind, this refers to the possibility that regional patterns are not constant when scaling with large values of global warming projections. 4. What to do with aerosol? At the present version of my text there is a discrepancy between MAGICC (that takes aerosol inti account) and regional patterns (that do not). Is this a very stupid idea, when I find an earlier year (instead of 2100) that corresponds to a global warming WITH aerosol and ascribe this pattern to 2100? More clearly: High emission/high climate sensitivity gives by 2100 3.5 K with aerosol and 4.7 K without. Without aerosol the warming of 3.5 K will be reached by 2077. Can I regard this as year 2100 WITH aerosol? I repeat that in Estonia the influence of aerosol should be significant. 5. People here want to have one central scenario instead of two. Can I recommend to take precipitation estimates from HadCM2 and temperature estimates as averages between HadCM2 and ECHAM3TR? If you look at the histogram we constructed at Norwich you see that HadCM2 predicts central estimate of precipitation among all models. This feature is also characteristic of similar histograms of different seasons. Best regards, Sirje 2920. 1997-08-19 13:31:13 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 19 Aug 1997 13:31:13 +0400 (MSD) from: From subject: message from Vaganov to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith just there is short info about money transfer: usage YOUR PRIVATE ACCOUNT help me to overcome some formal restrictions and additional documents (if such a way a transfer will be formally dificult from your side, better to use a traveller cheques). You can send to me the Stepan's portion and I easily give it to him, but REMEMBER that one day transfer have to be less than 9900 US dollars. And last note - better transfer US dollars, I think that our bank has a small experience with other currency (except, maybe DM). Please, inform me and Elene Muratove about your visit's schedule, I wish to be sure to meet you in airport etc. See you soon, Gene. 801. 1997-08-28 08:41:34 ______________________________________________________ cc: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, alcamo@usf.uni-kassel.de, jaeger@iiasa.ac.at, pier.vellinga@vu.ivm.nl date: Thu, 28 Aug 1997 08:41:34 +0100 from: Rob Swart subject: Re: European scientists' letter 2 -Reply to: Merylyn McKenzie-Hedger Dear Merylyn, I am very happy that you are enthusiastic about the idea of presenting a letter by European scientists to the Kyoto negotiations. What we had in mind was a similar procedure as in the US. After the initial drafting of the letter by a limited number of scientists (done), an ngo with more time/resources would take the letter and start collecting signatures through their network, primarily through email, but possibly also through mail/fax. I think we have reached that step. What would be needed is WWF distrbuting a message/letter from WWF accompanying the scientists's letter explaining the plan on their behalf. The letter should be relatively "objective" not to scare scientists that they are used in an unscientific ngo advocacy action. That is why we have approached you rather than Greenpeace, Climate Action Network or Friends of the Earth. I am sure you have your own network of climate scientists, screening the IPCC reports for IPCC lead authors would be an important second step. The people that are in the process now (like Mike Hulme, Joe Alcamo, Jill Jaeger, Pier Vellinga and others) will also provide you with as many names and addresses as they can come up with. I'll talk to Adam Markham about it next week. I propose that we start providing you with names/addresses now. In addition, other ways of collecting signatures may be through leaflets distributed during scientific climate meetings in Europe? Several hundreds of signatures would be the goal, including key people. Unfortunately, sofar we only came up with few names outside Germany/UK/Netherlands. I think we should actively try to get eastern and southern Europeans on board. I believe Joe's suggestion was to aim at a release of the letter in a joint WWF/scientists' press conference at the next AGBM in Bonn, or if that would be too early, in Kyoto. I am not sure to whom the letter should be directed: European heads of state with copies to delegation leaders? Environment Ministers? My question to you would be: could you give us your ideas on how to proceed (possibly with a proposal for an accompanying letter) next week. You may want to discuss it with Mike Hulme, who is closest to you. I hope others will come up with suggestions/reactions and therefore I copy this mail to them. Let's keep in touch. By the way, we are short on UK scientists yet.... Rob At 06:42 PM 8/26/97 +0200, you wrote: >Adma and I have discussed this and are very enthudiastic. Let us know >exaclty what you want from us. I'm away for a week. Count us in. Do >you wan to use our website. > > Dr. Robert J. Swart, RIVM/Air Reserarch Laboratory/Policy Analysis and Scenarios, P.O.Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands, tel. 31-30-2743026, fax. 31-30-2287531, email rob.swart@rivm.nl 2336. 1997-09-03 18:50:38 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 3 Sep 1997 18:50:38 +0100 (BST) from: "B.J.Matthews" subject: The Drowning Village: (about global climate change negotiations) to: titus.alexander@mcr1.poptel.org.uk Dear Climate colleagues, I thought you might like this story from Titus Alexander (please accept my apology if you get this message more than once) Ben ***************************************************************** The Drowning Village An allegory about global climate change "I don't want to frighten you" said Ipsee, the village seer, "but if we don't act now the village will be flooded. Spent Carbon Water is seeping into the soil. The ground water is rising and one day floods will force people from their homes and fields." "That can't be true," said Uncle Sam, self-appointed village headman. "Our life depends on Carbon Water. We can't possibly live without Carbon Water!" And so it was in Annex One, the district where the rich people lived. "Why is Carbon Water bad?" asked little Bird Sam, the boy who knew everything about competitive baseball and always wanted to do the right thing. "Carbon Water is wonderful! Our life depends on it" explained General MacSam, Uncle Sam's powerful brother. "It is a magical fluid full of energy that comes from deep wells in the ground. We use Carbon Water to heat our homes, drive our cars and make ever ything we want. Carbon Water is like liquid gold." General MacSam and his friends Olly Pec and Bull Carson owned most of the Carbon Water wells in the village. "Look son" said Uncle Sam, "Carbon Water helps us win at baseball." "And spent Carbon Water?" asked Little Sam again. "What is that?" "Oh, some nonsense Ipsee made up to cause trouble" snorted the General. "You can't believe everything the old seer says." "Spent Carbon Water is what's left when you use Carbon Water" explained Ipsee patiently. "It runs straight out into the ground and there is nothing we can do to catch it." "It can't be true!" said Uncle Sam again. "What can we do?" "More than half of all the Carbon Water is used by the fifteen families in Annex One. You could stop using so much Carbon Water" said Ipsee. "We can't do that!" said General MacSam. "We'll go bust if we stop using Carbon Water." "You could plant more trees," said Ipsee. "Trees soak up spent Carbon Water through their roots, but planting trees is not enough." "Aha! The trees!" cried Uncle Sam. "That's the real problem. Everybody knows that the Brazza boys down the road are cutting down too many trees, and the Mala mob on the other side of the village. We'll get them to stop cutting down trees and save the vill age!" "With respect" said Ipsee, who was always terribly polite. "These families are only cutting down the trees to sell you the wood and make fields for your cattle. Only a third of the Carbon Water is used by the 77 poor families who live outside Annex One." "Go away and do more studies" said Uncle Sam to Ipsee, and went to find other seers who would tell him Carbon Water was wonderful and there was no danger of flooding. The Sam clan had many magicians, soothsayers and spin doctors who had many clever ways of telling people what they paid to hear. Pearl River Sam was a glamorous honey-tongued soothsayer in the Sam clan who mingled stealthily among the villagers, telling them whatever MacSam paid her to say: "Carbon Water is not a problem" she whispered huskily. "Ipsee is just guessing. If you stop using Carbon Water you will be ruined." She visited families in their homes with shiny charts and numbers to show them that using less Carbon Water would make them poorer. She courted the rich uncles outside Annex One with flattery and charm. "Just as you are doing do so well, they are trying to make you give it all up. Don't be panicked. Don't do anything hasty. Something will come up. Don't stop using Carbon Water just because old Ipsee scares you" she soothed. Fraser Gold Sam wasn't a soothsayer but a tough backwoodsman who didn't like what Ipsee said one little bit. "Its a leftist plot to take over the village, you all watch out" he warned his fellow clansmen. "Them folks outside the Annex want what we've got, an' we worked damn hard for what we got. They just want to take our Carbon Water and tell us what to do here in our very own homes. That Carbon Water scare is nothing but a dangerous plot to take over the village, you all watch out!" But the frightening rumours about floods of Spent Carbon Water spread amongst the villagers. "Is it true that Ipsee has warned of terrible floods?" they asked. "What are we going to do?" "We must stop using Carbon Water!" said Greasy Eye, an artist who lived in Annex One. "Save the forests!" he cried. But few listened. "The Carbon Waters are rising" repeated Ipsee to all who would listen. "We must use less Carbon Water or one day the village will flood." "Call a village summit" said the Strong Man in Annex One. "There are many problems we must deal with together. The forests are dying, the fish are disappearing and Carbon Waters are rising. We must make a plan for the whole village to look after our envir onment." "What about the poor people!" said Lou Brazza, speaking for the seventy seven families outside Annex One. "All you care about is the environment. Many of us do not have enough food to eat. We do not have enough clean water to drink. Some of our people are starving. Look at our poor shacks around the village. We also need to talk about poverty." The 77 families lived on the edge of the village, cultivating fields, digging the mines or just struggling to survive. Many proud, ancient families lived outside Annex One, suffering the indignity of poverty. Here lived the beautiful Indira with her large and argumentative family, the boisterous Brazza brothers and many others. The elegant Mr Chin had the biggest family of all, making one in five of the villagers. Mr Chin's extended family usually kept to themselves in their large walled garden, but they too were worried about the rising Carbon Waters. "Let us talk about all these problems together" said the Strong Man. "Rich or poor, we are all in trouble if the Carbon Waters rise. Where can we meet?" And so the Brazza brothers invited one person from every family to the Rio Restaurant on the riverside to talk about poverty and the environment. There the villagers wrote a long list of things to do, which they called Action 21. Everyone agreed that the danger of flooding from Carbon Water was the number one problem. Ipsee explained the problem very clearly. "When we use Carbon Water for energy it spreads over the village like dew. The trees soak some of it up and some flows away in the river, but most of the spent Carbon Water stays in the ground. Soon the water will form puddles in the low lying areas. "For every twenty thousand buckets of Carbon Water, the water could rise about an inch. Every year the village uses over six thousand buckets. That means a foot of water every forty years, even if we only use the same amount of Carbon Water as today. The only way to stop the floods is to use less than one thousand four hundred buckets a year." "Less than one thousand four hundred buckets! You must be crazy" shouted General MacSam, Uncle Sam's powerful brother. "We use more than that in half a year." "That is the problem" said Ipsee. "More than half the Carbon Water is used by 15 families in Annex One. Boris and his former family uses nearly a thousand buckets. The 77 families use just two thousand buckets between them, but they are digging new wells because they also want to be rich." "And what's wrong with that!?" shouted Mat Mala. "Uncle Sam and his fat friends have hogged the Carbon Water to themselves for far too long. Now it's our turn." "I am just a humble seer," said Ipsee. "My task is to present the problem, not to blame anyone or tell you how to solve it. Nobody in the village can escape this problem. Everybody is using more Carbon Water. The ground water is rising, the river is burst ing its banks. If the village carries on like this it will be under three feet of water in a century." "You can't scare us with stories about floods a 100 years from now, old man" said General MacSam. "We can live with that." "Maybe you can, up on your hill, but your fields in the valley will all be under water. And all the families living along the river bank will have to move up the hill with you." After Ipsee spoke everyone was silent. It was terrible news. Worse than any nightmare. The wonderful, magical golden Carbon Water was slowly drowning their beautiful village. "We will stop the Carbon Water flowing any faster" agreed all the rich families from the Annex One. "We will also give more money to the poor. And we will meet again every year to work on this terrible problem together." But the Carbon Water kept on flowing. It was such a wonderful liquid, everyone wanted it. "We can't do without it" people said in Annex One. "We need more Carbon Water to end our poverty." said the 77 poor families. "The rich families in Annex One caused the problem. They should solve it." And so the argument went on, year after year. One person from each family met every few months at a different place - at the Berlin Bar, Hotel Geneva or the Bonn Bordello. But still the Carbon Water kept on flowing. Everybody wanted more magic liquid, and the rich families did not want to give money to the poor. "They will only spend it on food and fast cars" said Uncle Sam. Ipsee came again and said, "Friends, the flood waters are still rising. If we do not stop using Carbon Water our fields will all be under water and that will be the end of this story." The Aosis family lived on the banks of the river at the edge of the village. Every year the spring floods rose a little higher. Some fields were already beginning to disappear. One day their homes would go too. They wrote a solemn petition to the village meeting, pleading with the 15 families of Annex One to use less Carbon Water. "If the waters rise, we'll move you little guys somewhere else" said Uncle Sam. "The Sam clan would go bust if we stop using Carbon Water. - Let's be reasonable. A little flooding is not so bad. It could even make your crops grow better. It would be much easier if we just put sand bags round our houses." "Its alright for you," said Johnny Aosis, "Annex One is rich and up the hill. We can't even afford sandbags." "If you used more Carbon Water you could buy more sandbags" said Uncle Sam. "And my brother does a good line in second hand sand bags." "You're crazy" said Greasy Eye, pointing a finger in his face. "If a single member of the Aosis family goes under you'll be done for murder." "We run the police round here" said Uncle Sam, with just the slightest hint of menace. "But this is a time for rational debate, my friend. We're very sympathetic to the Aosis family. Tell you what, we'll give them second hand sand bags at half price." Then General MacSam discovered a wizard to solve the problem. Captain Dave was a clever Economagician who made problems disappear in a cloud of magic numbers. "If the village stopped using Carbon Water it will cost ten million Bucks a year" said Captain Dave gravely, pulling out scrolls of paper covered in tiny figures. "But if we let the waters rise it will cost a million Bucks in damages. Now that's about the same price as sandbags round every single house and field and more...." "See. The solution's simple" said MacSam. "We buy enough sandbags for everyone and save nine million Bucks a year. Its a win-win solution, folks." "Hang on a minute" said Greasy Eye. "How did you work out those costs, Captain Dave? Let me see those figures" Greasy Eye grabbed the scrolls. "Rude boy" scowled Captain Dave. "Who let that madman in here?" "Peer View means that everyone can look at the figures" said Ipsee. "Its an ancient village custom." "Look!" shouted Greasy Eye. "The conniving Captain has costed the damages in Annex One fifteen times more than everyone else. No wonder it looks cheaper to buy sandbags. But if the damage costs are equal across the village, they work out at more than twel ve million Bucks a year." "Is that true!?" demanded Mr Chin. "Well, everything in Annex one costs fifteen times more than everywhere else, so obviously the damages are higher there." "What scoundrel!" said Mat Mala. Uncle Sam never mentioned Captain Dave again and the discussions dragged on as before. The 77 families were getting more and more angry with the 15 families in Annex One. "Everyone in the Sam clan uses five buckets of Carbon Water every single day. We just get half a bucket a day. That's not fair" said the Brazza brothers. "But there are more of you" said Uncle Sam. "We're all in this together. We'll use less Carbon Water if you use less." "That's right" said Little Bird Sam. "Me and my pals wont let Uncle Sam do anything that will stop us winning at baseball. If we use less Carbon Water and you lot carry on using it, then all our best baseball players will move out of Annex One." "See. My family are very stubborn. They won't use less Carbon Water until everyone in the village agrees that they will also use less. We won't agree to anything until everyone agrees to everything." "Its almost too late" said Johnny Aosis. "Some of our fields are under an inch of water." "Grow rice!" exclaimed MacSam, who always saw an opportunity where others saw problems. "Grow up!" snapped Greasy Eye. The arguments went on for days and weeks and years without any end in sight. Every year the waters rose a little higher, and every year the voices rose louder too. The fifteen rich families in Annex One lived safely, enjoying everything that money can buy, made with the magical powers of Carbon Water. They really didn't want to know anything about floods or the poor outside their district. They built flood barriers, hired more armed guards and put higher fences round their houses. The poor could only come in if they had a pass to work as a servant - or if they were very rich, like Olly Pec, who lived outside Annex One but owned the biggest Carbon Water well of all. But the 15 families also argued among themselves. Mrs Eura wrung her hands and said "We've got to do something" over and over again, without actually doing anything, of course. John Bull Eura sacked one of his water carriers. That slowed the flow slightly , but then he let Bull Carson start digging new wells in Atlantic Pond behind his house. Old Boris had a heart attack, so he stopped fetching Carbon Water, but his crooked sons were soon in business selling the stuff cheap to Uncle Sam. The polite Mr Jay said little but his family invented lots of gadgets which used less Carbon Water. "More g adgets, less Carbon Water" they said softly, but used just as much as everyone else in Annex One. Many children in Annex One didn't like what the grown-ups were doing and tried to stop people using Carbon Water by planting green peas round the wells. General MacSam and Bull Carson hated green peas, but they were more of a nuisance than a threat. Bull Carson hired armed guards to chase the children away from the wells, but they just kept coming back planting more and more green peas. Uncle Sam came up with lots more clever scams to make the problem disappear without doing anything about it. His favourite scam was called Join In, - J.I. for short. "Its all very simple and very very smart" said Uncle Sam. "Listen guys, everybody wins when you all Join In." Uncle Sam was always so positive and friendly people always listened. He was also head of the richest and most powerful family in the village, so it was hard to argue with him. "Join In works like this. We carry on using Carbon Water, but we pay you guys to plant trees anywhere you like. You get the trees and we get to use the Carbon Water. The trees soak up the Carbon Water, so that way they cancel out. Win-win all round." The 77 families looked at Uncle Sam as if he was stupid. "Am I being too smart for you?" said Uncle Sam. "Listen guys, you can sell the wood from the trees later" he winked. A few friend of Uncle Sam outside Annex One agreed to Join In, but most people in the village saw it for what it was, a scam to divert att ention from the main problem. Little Bird Sam sang "There were ten in a bed and the little one said, 'Win win, win win, and they all win-won and one fell out, and the little one said - " "Hey, that's leverage" said Pearl Sam, smiling like a toothpaste advert. "Smart kid. Loads brighter than those green pea nuts messing up our Carbon Water wells." The 77 families also argued between themselves. Olly Pec had the biggest Carbon Water well in the whole village. It made him very rich and he didn't want to loose out. "All I want is compensation" said Olly Pec. "If the village decides to use less Carbon Water, then the village should pay us to keep it in the ground." "What about compensation for my fields?" asked Johnny Aosis. "That's an act of nature" smiled Pearl Sam, appearing mysteriously beside Olly Pec. "The rich families must lead the way" insisted Father Chin. "He who fouls the nest, must clean it." The large and venerable Chin family were very worried about the rising water, but they were also very poor and wanted more Carbon Water to make life easier . "The families outside Annex One must be allowed to use more Carbon Water." And so the arguments went on year after year and the water kept rising, inch by inch. More and more children planted green peas round the wells. They tried to stop Bull Carson from digging wells . "The families in Annex One should cut the amount of Carbon Water used by one tenth in five years" suggested Mrs Eura. "Impossible!" said Uncle Sam. "Not enough" said Lou Brazza. "Look at the way the stuff is flowing as if there will be no tomorrow." "At this rate there will be no tomorrow" sighed Greasy Eye. "Annex One must make a solemn oath to cut its use of Carbon Water by ten per cent in five years" said Mrs Eura again. "And twenty per cent in ten years." "That looks good" said Lou, "but that still means you can use more than two thousand buckets a year in ten years time. Where does that leave us outside Annex One? The flood waters will rise and your solemn oath means that you don't need to cut any more, s o all of us outside Annex One will have to cut down on Carbon Water even more." And so the arguments continued in bars and hotels around the village. The Carbon Waters kept on flowing, Bull Carson dug more wells and slowly puddles of floodwater continued to rise. In desperation Greasy Eye painted a big picture of the village drowning under spent Carbon water. He painted one person from each family with a bucket showing the amount of Carbon Water each person used. At one end stood Lady Indira, Mr Chin and most of t he village with less than one bucket each. At the other end stood the rich from Annex One, with Uncle Sam balancing six buckets on his head. Looking at this picture gave Mrs Black an idea for a new way forward. "My friends, we all suffer from the rising water. The longer we argue, the more it will rise. My family is one of the poorest in the village. Our crops are drowning and disease is sprea ding. We hardly use any Carbon Water, less than half a bucket each. We would like more Carbon Water and be rich like the people of Annex One, but we must find another way to meet our needs so that the whole village does not suffer. We did not cause this p roblem, but it hurts us most. We cannot wait for the rich families in Annex One to agree among themselves. We need action now." Mrs Black paused. Everyone looked at her. Uncle Sam bent down to tie his shoe laces and pretended not to hear. "We believe that each person in the village is equal. This magical Carbon Water is a gift of nature. It belongs equally to us all. We should therefore have equal rights to use Carbon Water." "Outrageous" muttered General MacSam. "Bravo" called Lady Indira, who had been silent for a long time. "Let me continue" said Mrs Black. "Uncle Sam says that the Sam clan won't agree to use less Carbon Water until every family agrees to use less. Very well then. Let us agree that every person should have the same right to draw an equal amount of Carbon Wat er from the wells. Our wiser seer Ipsee has said that to protect the village from flooding we must not use more than 1,400 buckets of water a year. That is about one bucket a day for every person in the village." "Well said!" said Mr Chin. "Spot on!" said Toni Brazza. "We want equal rights to use Carbon Water. One bucket per person is only fair." "Outrageous" growled General MacSam, his voice rising. "We can't live on less than four buckets a day!" "Sssh" hissed Uncle Sam at his brother. "We need to think this one through carefully." "It's robbery" growled the General. "They want to steal our Carbon Water." "One bucket of water a day for every person" continued Mrs Black. "If General MacSam wants to use more, he can buy it from us. We will use the money to improve our land in other ways. We can use the money to buy gadgets from Mr Jay." "At last!" said Johnny Aosis. "Maybe now we will get some action." When the village summit met again at Kyoto Cafe Mrs Black presented a solemn petition before them. Each person would have an equal right to one bucket of Carbon Water a day. If people wanted more, they could buy it from someone else. If people used more without buying it they would pay a heavy fine. "Its almost too late" said Johnny Aosis. "Some of our fields are under two inches of water." "We don't like it" said General MacSam, "we could make more money selling sandbags." "Where's the leverage?" said Pearl Sam, smiling as if her life depended on it. "I warned you" screamed Fraser Gold Sam. "They're taking over the village. Just you wait. Soon they'll want elections for the village Council. One bucket, one vote, mark my words." "Rising water affect us all" sighed Uncle Sam. "You can't argue with nature, Fraser." "Win-win, too-win, too-woo" wittered Little Bird Sam, snuggling up to his dad in anxiety. "Its a tough deal" confessed Uncle Sam. "You got what you wanted" snapped the Brazza brothers. "We've all agreed to use no more than a safe amount of Carbon Water." "Ok, Ok. We'll pay you to look after your trees in exchange for the right to use some of your Carbon Water." "That's not enough" said the Brazza brothers. "We want you to help us build a decent homes for all our family, so that we can live in peace and cook with solar power." And so this chapter in the story ends with rich and poor families helping each other to create a village safe from flooding. Let us make sure that the Climate Change negotiators learn the lesson of this little fable before it is too late. Copyright 1997: Titus Alexander, 32 Carisbrooke Road, London UK, E17 7EF Please send comments to titus.alexander@mcr1.poptel.org.uk Non-profit organisations are free to circulate this story on the internet or in magazines for campaign purposes, provided credit is given and the following background notes and action points are included. Where writers are normally paid, please pay the us ual rate to Titus Alexander. This material can also be adapted for use as a play or street theatre. A cartoon version will be available. Background note: interpreting the story Global warming is the most serious threat ever faced by humanity. It is potentially more dangerous than World War 2 or the cold war. To avoid dangerous climate change, we need to devote at least as much effort to using less fossil fuels as went into defen ce over the past 50 years. This story is a lose analogy of the climate change crisis and global negotiations that have continued for ten years without cutting any greenhouse gases. None of the characters represent real people, but the following may provide an insight into the compl ex issues involved. The IPCC ("Ipsee") is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of over 2,000 scientists who have provided evidence of global warming and have warned that greenhouse gases must be cut by upto 60% to prevent dangerous climate change. A major cause of i ncreased global warming is man-made greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, which is a by-product of fossil fuels such as oil and coal. These are loosely represented in the story by Carbon Water and CO2 as spent Carbon Water. CO2 is absorbed by trees, plants, ocean plankton and other natural sinks, but more CO2 is being produced than can be absorbed. Like the rising flood waters, carbon is accumulating in the sky and trapping heat in the earth's atmosphere, thus causing global warming. More than half of all CO2 is produced by the industrialised countries of the West and former Soviet block. These countries are listed in Annex One of the Climate Change Convention. In 1992 they agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio to cut CO2 emissions to 199 0 levels by 2000. So far emissions continue to rise, apart from Britain (due to the closure of the coal industry) and the former Soviet Union. The West has fifteen percent of world population, loosely represented by the 15 rich families in the story. During the negotiations some Western economists calculated that the cost of damage due to dangerous climate change would be roughly equal to the cost of measures to protect against its effects (the sandbags), using calculations that valued the death of on e person in the West as 15 times greater than a person in developing countries. The United States has been very reluctant to commit itself to cutting CO2 emissions unless developing countries also do so. This campaign has been led by the fossil fuel industry, caricatured in the story as General MacSam, assisted by professional lobbyi sts such as Don Pearlman and Charles River Associates, and supported by Senator Byrd in Congress. The Fraser Institute, Sovereignty International and other US organisations deny global warming is a problem or see the Climate Change negotiations as a plot to set up world government, or both. The US is also very keen on Joint Implantation (or JI) which involves projects to cut CO2 emissions or plant trees in developing countries to off-set emissions in the US. The US also want to set up a system of emissions trading, so that countries with low emissions can sell 'emissions rights' to countries with high emissions, like the US. Developing countries make up over 75 per cent of world population and emit less than half of all CO2, although emissions from newly industrialising countries are rising rapidly. Developing countries have presented joint positions as the G77 plus China. Teams of negotiators from almost every country in the world have met at least four times a year to hammer out proposals for cutting CO2 emissions, but process is painfully slow. The next big meeting is in Kyoto in December 1997. The Global Commons Institute has argued that the fairest way of dealing with the problem is to set a global ceiling on permissable emissions and the allocate emissions rights on an equal per capita basis. This is equivalent to the one bucket per person in the story. Under the GCI proposals, the global ceiling on CO2 emissions would gradually come down and per capita emissions would coverage towards an equal per capita limit of about one tonne of carbon per person per year at a specific date in the future. We see climate change is an equal rights issue about the use of the global commons. For more details, see the GCI web site at http://www.gn.apc.org/gci Action points Use the story to encourage people to talk and find out more about global warming. It can be reprinted or serialised in school and university magazines. It can be used as a basis for drama improvisation in youth clubs, schools, drama societies or street th eatre. Science and drama teachers might be persuaded to work together on this topic. As a play, you could develop the story to involve the audience in a discussion about the issues and ways of reducing use of fossil fuels. Use the story to campaign for your workplace, university, school or town to use less fossil fuels. This could fit it with Local Agenda 21. Get people to write to their MP and Robin Cook (Foreign Secretary) John Prescott (Environment Secretary) and Tony Blair (Prime Minister) to • declare climate change to be a global security interest • support proposals for a global limit on CO2 emissions and equal per capita CO2 emissions rights as the basis of an agreement at Kyoto • support the government's proposal for a minimum 20% cut in emissions by 2010 • urge the government to bring in measures to cut CO2 1077. 1997-09-10 11:25:22 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 10 Sep 1997 11:25:22 -0400 from: rmoss@usgcrp.gov (Richard Moss) subject: Re: Please call -- urgent to: Mike Hulme Mike: Your help is potentially still relevant, although I have also asked others to look at the text as well. Here is the current situation: The Africa chapter submitted by Zinyowera was a mess. It came about 48 hours before we had to have all the copy out to governments to meet the deadline for the review, so we had no time to edit it before it was sent out (as it was, Dave Dokken and I were in all weekend trying to piece together the fragments we received). I've gotten Z's permissions to contact lead authors for clarification -- and what I'm doing is getting them to submit new text to me (in some cases, it was text they submitted previously, but which he mangled in the assembly process). Because of your work in the region, I was going to ask you to help me in the re-assembly. From your point of view, you were probably lucky to be on holiday. At the moment, Paul Desanker is working on the ecosystems and hydrology sections, Tom Downing is working on agriculture and a short introduction on vulnerability; Coleen Voegel has also just sent in some comments. Dave Griggs at WGI TSU is just back from holiday and the TP-4 meeting in Boulder and is looking at the regional climate section. Tom Karl's shop is looking at the convoluted "observations" information. I'm trying to get something out to Zinyowera to review as soon as possible -- I had initially promised by COB on Friday, had been hoping to do it by COB today, but would wait if I knew I would get some inputs from you. I expect political trouble on all ends of this. So that's the status. Let me ask you to quickly review two pieces of text, if possible: 1)the edited draft of the introduction (including climate information); and 2) a nascent section on "integration," taken from the current introduction, plus some other information I've quickly pulled together. You would be great to look at both sections because of your work in the region generally, and the WWF report specifically. I would actually have quoted the report, but I gave my only copy to Zinyowera, and haven't been able to get hold of one here. Please confirm receipt of this message and whether it is feasible for you to contribute in this way. At the moment, I am planning to be in Amsterdam, but given the way report preparations are going (and the fact that you will be there), maybe I should reconsider. I look forward to hearing from you. And THANKS. Richard begin 644 Karl=WGI.doc MT,\1X*&Q&N$`````````````````````.P`#`/[_"0`&```````````````! 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M;W1E('1O($UI:V4@2'5L;64Z(%1H:7,@'0L(&%L=&AO=6=H M(&ET(&ES(&)E8V]M:6YG(&%N(&ET96T@;VX@=&AE(&%G96YD82!O9B!S979E MF%T:6]N2!R97-E87)C:"!O M;B!I;7!A8W1S(&]N('1H92!P;W1E;G1I86QL>2!M;W-T('9U;&YE2!P;W1E;G1I86P@8V]S=',@ M86YD(&)E;F5F:71S(&-A;B!B92!A2!S:71E'!E2!A;F0@=G5L M;F5R86)I;&ET>2!O9B!K97D@2!I;G1E9W)A=&EN9R!T:&4@8VAA:6X@;V8@969F M96-T2!F;W(@=&AE(')E M9VEO;BX@(`T-07,@=&AI2!A;'-O(&5N2!A;F0@<75A;&ET>3H@<')E=F5N=&EN M9R!A;F0@2!A/2HO`%``````(!VT_+,YP%``````!P= MQH6\O`$#``````````,`````````0```````````````'@```!,```!-:6-R M;W-O9G0@5V]R9"`V+C```P`````````>`````@```#8``P`````````````` M``````'____^``````````#_____________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M____________________________________________________________ M_________________________________P`#``!A`P``B`,``*(8``"C&``` MI!@```#^```````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````"7@$%``,` M``<%```(!0``-P4``#@%``!!"```0@@``*(*``"C"@``Q0H``,8*```F#0`` M)PT``(,/``"$#P``\Q```+41```8$@``EA(``/,2``#T$@``O1,``+X3``!E M%@``9A8``*$8``"B&```HQ@``*08``#^``;`(?``_@`!P"'P`/X``<`A\`#^ M``'`(?``_@`)P"'P`/X``<`A\`#^``?`(?``_@`!P"'P`/X``<`A\`#^``'` M(?``_@`'P"'P`/X``<`A\`#^``?`(?``_@`!P"'P`/X`!<`A\`#=!/_`(2`# MW03_P"$P`MT$_\`A,`+=!/_`(3`"_@`!P"'P`/X``\`A\`#^``'`(?``_@`( MP"'P`/X``<`A\`#^``?`(?``_@`!P"'P`/X```````#^``'`(?`````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M```````````````````````````````````````````````````````````` M`````````````````````````````````````````````"````T+$6@!$YC^ M##3_`0`(```!`````0!H`0```````+<````````````````````````````` M``````````````$``!P.`!$`"``!`$L`#P````,`'```0/'_`@`<``9.;W)M M86P``@````8`80D$8Q@`````````````````````````(@!!0/+_H0`B`!9$ M969A=6QT(%!A'0```(`#P`#`&,4```@`"9`H@`!`2``$D9O;W1N;W1E(%)E M9F5R96YC90`"`&@!I!4````````#`````@`0`?__`0`0`/__`@`````````` M``,````````````!````````````I!4```D`_____P``_____P(`!"#__P$` M`"#__P(``````+4.``"D%0````!C`````0````````,``*08```-```#``"D M&```#@#8`!!3:&%R9'5L($%G date: Thu, 11 Sep 1997 09:47:58 +0200 from: Nebojsa NAKICENOVIC subject: Re: IPCC meeting in NL to: Mike Hulme Dear Mike, I am glad that you will be able to join us on Thursday evening and on Wednesday. This message is also forwarded to Rob so that he knows about your travel plans. There is room for your talk/comments in the draft agenda on Wednesday mornings if this suits you. I will include you in the next draft. Perhaps you know that Steve Schneider joined us during our last meeting and briefed the participants on on-going work on climate change and what role temissions scenarios have in driving the climate models. Your work on including more realistic treatment of emissions/forcing by considering both GHGs and sulfur aerosols in simple and global climate models would be of great interest to our group. Our timing is to have a first set of tentative (``template'') scenarios ready within six months or so. The final, refined set would be ready in early 1999, but for your purposes it might not appear to be too different from the tentative set. Thank you for joining us. Regards, Naki At 04:25 PM 9/8/97 +0100, you wrote: >Naki, > >I have only just got back from 10 days vacation. > >Yes, I am planning on being at the RIVM meeting, although only for the >Wednesday evening and Thursday. I have (I think) booked in with RIVM for >the dinner and night. > >I will endeavour to make a few comments about emissions/forcing scenarios >being used in both simple and global climate models. > >Look forward to seeing you next week! > >Regards, > >Mike > >At 18:10 02/09/97 +0200, you wrote: >> >>Dear Mike, >> >>We plan to hold the next meeting of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions >>Scenarios at RIVM in Netherlands (close to Amsterdam) on 17-19. September. >> >>It would be of a great benefit for our group working on the new emissions >>scenarios if you could come to the meeting and brief us on your current >>work on integrating the joint forcing of GHG and sulfur emissions. >>We need to know from you perspective what are the desirable characteristics >>of new emissions scenarios given the requirements of climate modelers. The >>meeting starts with dinner on the 17th. If you do not have enough time >>you might consider attending only on the 18th. >> >>The organizer of the meeting is Rob Swart at RIVM (email address: >>Rob.Swart@rivm.nl). Please contact him directly concerning the logistics. >> >>Hope you can join us, >> >>Naki >> >> >> >>Nebojsa Nakicenovic >>Project Leader >>Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies >> International Institute for | Email: naki@iiasa.ac.at >> Applied Systems Analysis | Phone: +43 2236 807 411 >> A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: +43 2236 71313 >----------------------------------------------------------------------------- >Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 >Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 >School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk >University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ >Norwich NR4 7TJ > >**************************************************************************** >*** >NOW PUBLISHED: 'Climates of the British Isles' (eds. Hulme,M. and >Barrow,E.M.) >Have a look at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/cotbi/ >**************************************************************************** >*** > >Mean temp. in C.England during 1997 has been about 1.2degC above the >1961-90 average. >The maximum temperature in Norwich: Sunday 7 September: 22.1degC. > > > > 3014. 1997-09-15 15:37:52 ______________________________________________________ cc: Eugene date: Mon Sep 15 15:37:52 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: URGENT MONEY QUESTION to: Stepan Stepan problems have now certainly arisen as regards the payment for your laboratory. I am just back from Sweden and have been able to confirm after a long search by my bank that the payment for you was indeed returned to England. At this moment it is not certain where it is - only that it has reduced in size from 7948 u.s.dollars to 7885 dollars. If it is officially returned to my account it will be coverted to 4869 pounds sterling - a total loss of 131 pounds to get back to where we started! I am told that the transfer failed because 'through operations are not for this type of account' - which means I messed up by writing your name in the details box. I am told that I can resend the remaining money cheaper if I simply repeat the original transaction (oviously with no comments this time) but this would mean sending it to Eugene and him transfering it someway to you. I need to know immediately if this is acceptable to you . If not I will recollect the 4869 pounds and reconvert to dollars and send it to wherever you tell me. Please let me know straight away the best thing to do . it was nice seeing you best wishes Keith 4880. 1997-09-17 11:45:32 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed Sep 17 11:45:32 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: from Shiyatov to: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" Stepan I have only just received your email . Yesterday I gave instructions to the bank to send the remaining money($u.s. 7885.70) in dollars to the American bank account you indicated in your last message - with the necessary phrase included. I hope this transaction will go through smoothly and that you will please inform me as soon as you here anything about it. Very best wishes Keith At 04:11 PM 9/17/97 +0500, you wrote: >Dear Keith, > >I have received your e-mail of 16th September. > >After a consultation with the specialists , I decided it is better >if you will transfer these money to my account to the Urals Branch >of Mosbuisnessbank. It is not necessary to reconvert the remaining >pounds to dollars. You can transfer this sum in pounds sterling to >my account. The Mosbuisnessbank can reconvert pounds to dollars and >this operation can be cheaper. If you can not transfer these money >in pounds, please reconvert pounds to dollars and send this sum of >money in dollars to my account. > >Best wishes to you, your family and Phil > Stepan Shiyatov > > 3725. 1997-09-21 16:58:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 21 Sep 1997 16:58:44 +0200 from: Arnulf GRUBLER subject: IS92 data to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Mike It was good to meet you at RIVM and I look forward receiving your comments on the sulfur draft paper. Enclosed as attachment I add the IS92 emission data in their original Lotus 123 spreadsheed format. Apart from more detail you will also find (at the end of the spreadsheets) energy and industrial sulfur emissions by IS92 region. The naming conventions are straightforward: tr*4.wk1 where * is for a, b, c, d, e, and f, referring to teh respective IS92 scenario. 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MPCT_6X+[N3\.``T`@A``T`'!0PJ@AM"[/P\`&P"!``#1`2<@($-(-"!F\84XP=`#@`-`((*`-$!4L?J7^.\#D`.``T`@@L`T0&*"8E1>*$30`X`#0"" M#`#1`0858D^Q/!E`#@`-`((-`-$!S&*66-]-($`.``T`@@X`T0'0D1Q>D%LM M0`X`#0""#P#1`7-E&A?BWRU`#@`-`((0`-$!V;W+1(AF+D`/`!T`@0``T@$G M0T\R(&9R;VT@1&5F;W)EG>'95JZ#A`#@`-`((&`-0!/8P* M6-4L.$`.``T`@@<`U`'OEO\=94`W0`X`#0"""`#4`0:V8'U14C9`#@`-`(() M`-0!\*+%%_M7-4`.``T`@@H`U`&_A=^`%E8T0`X`#0"""P#4`7JD2JJ=5C-` M#@`-`((,`-0!P7B@:[)?,D`.``T`@@T`U`%D<*#M)GXQ0`X`#0""#@#4`3#) MP::_\3%`#@`-`((/`-0!29Y9Y56C,4`.``T`@A``U`'CHLB5K,PQ0`\`#`"! M``#5`2<@($Y/>``.``T`@@4`U0$J"=*6Q-/M/PX`#0""!@#5`1?)]'LZ?NT_ M#@`-`(('`-4!'[)&/6+<[#\.``T`@@@`U0&BZSL':3KL/PX`#0"""0#5`=6V M>+/8?^L_#@`-`((*`-4!J]=\]<&RZC\.``T`@@L`U0'K';XI".#I/PX`#0"" M#`#5`6HR&`0R#ND_#@`-`((-`-4!CAO85Q-4Z#\.``T`@@X`U0%].;3;,37I M/PX`#0""#P#5`6&..!Q]G.@_#@`-`((0`-4!&2"$;?[LZ#\/``P`@0``U@$G M("!.,D\`#@`-`((%`-8!EY5K`/[PK3\.``T`@@8`U@$KV1T6()NM/PX`#0"" M!P#6`;M9O$2I^*P_#@`-`(((`-8!K&>Q6Q%6K#\.``T`@@D`U@&$<1$]RIJK M/PX`#0"""@#6`3*&K(WJS*H_#@`-`((+`-8!O<6B2F+YJ3\.``T`@@P`U@$% MV+V,OB:I/PX`#0""#0#6`1):_(3I:Z@_#@`-`((.`-8!ISU?FN1-J3\.``T` M@@\`U@&H?V0\FK2H/PX`#0""$`#6`=-P9&YJ!:D_#P`,`($``- subject: Re: statement to: Mike Hulme Mike, Great work. I don't think it is necessary to try anyone else. I think the balls in my court now, and I should make the final revisions to the Statement (based on your suggestions and those of Riordan. I will also draft a letter to "the 10", along with a proposed list of who these ten should be. With regards to selecting a list of "the 10", I also would like to wait until Rob contacts Opschoor and other prominent Dutch scientists. This means that I won't have a draft letter to "the 10" until later this week -- You mentioned that you are out of the office after Tuesday. How can I reach you by fax or email later in the week? Best wishes. Joe Alcamo ---------------------------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo, Director Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Kurt Wolters Strasse 3 D-34109 Kassel Germany Phone: +49 561 804 3898 Fax: +49 561 804 3176 2099. 1997-09-22 16:16:16 ______________________________________________________ cc: "Reddish, Iain" date: Mon, 22 Sep 1997 16:16:16 +0100 from: "Wallace, Helen" subject: Climate sceptics to: 'Mike Hulme' Dear Mike, I am wondering whether you could help us with some urgent (paid) work we need doing for Kyoto. Or perhaps you can recommend someone else? We want to produce a briefing that replies to all the usual climate 'sceptics' arguments, in the form of short questions and answers. The work would involve supplying short (single paragraph) answers to a list of about 15 to 20 questions. Unfortunately, we have (as usual!) a very tight deadline - Friday 3 October. We could pay standard rates for the work, and it would be fine to have a number of different people helping with the answers, provided one person could be responsible for meeting the deadline. The report would be published as a Greenpeace International one. If you are unable to help, perhaps you could suggest someone else in your department who could - maybe with help from postgrads/postdocs in your department? Thanks in advance for your help, I look forward to hearing from you. Best regards, Helen Wallace Dr Helen Wallace Senior Scientist Greenpeace UK Greenpeace, Canonbury Villas, London, N1 2PN Tel: +44-171-865-8241 Fax: +44-171-865-8202 2396. 1997-09-23 09:36:26 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 23 Sep 97 09:36:26 +0500 from: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" subject: from Shiyatov to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith, I have been consulted with officials of my Bank concerning the question of your Bank and they explaned to me the next: the Bank in Ekaterinburg where I have an account is the Urals Branch of the Mosbusinessbank. The Mosbusinessbank is located in Moscow. That is why there are two numbers for the Mosbuisnessbank, one for Intermediary Bank (Moscow) and one for Beneficiary's Bank (Ekaterinburg). The officials of my Bank asked me to send you and your Bank the next information which must take away this misunderstanding: INTERMEDIARY BANK:/ Mosbusinessbank 15, Kuznetsky Most, Moscow, 103780, Russia. BENEFICIARY'S BANK:/ 0010843136, Urals Branch of Mosbusinessbank, Ekaterinburg, Russia. BENEFICIARY:/ 001711013, Stepan Shiyatov. Last year I received money through the same Bank and I have no any problems. I repeart the necessary information to transfer money for my account. "Pay USD (sum) to the account of Mosbusinessbank N 04-093-945 with Bankers Trust Co., New York, USA for Urals Branch of Mosbusinessbank, Ekaterinburg, Russia, N 0010893136 in favour of account 001711013 Stepan Shiyatov". The Russian bank rules ask additional details (words) in one position of transfer document : "voluntaries (or humanitarian) instalment (or payment) for EC Project Advance REF AG1190/482- 38 ENV 4CT950127". It will give me the possibility to avoid a high taxation. Sincerely yours Stepan Shiyatov 3106. 1997-09-23 15:35:47 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 23 Sep 1997 15:35:47 +0100 from: Sam Kanyamibwa subject: Re:Payment to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Mike, thanks for your message of 22 September. I have just checked with our financial department who have contcated the Bank. The bank has confirmed that the money was transfered to your account on 18th September. Please check again and contact us if necessary. Thanks again and all the best. Sam >>> Mike Hulme 09/22 12:27 pm >>> A message for Sam Kanyamibwa Sam, Thanks for your fax. This is to let you know that I have _not_ yet received my payment. Perhaps you could just check that everything is in order and that it will sent on soon. Thanks, Mike (P.S. I do not know your personal email address). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ Norwich NR4 7TJ **************************************************************************** Mean temp. in C.England during 1997 has been about 1.1degC above the 1961-90 average. The maximum temperature in Norwich: Sunday 21 September: 16.4degC. 2187. 1997-09-29 12:42:23 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 29 Sep 1997 12:42:23 +0100 from: Iain Reddish subject: Sceptics Project to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Hi, Mike, Following up: 1. Hopefully you received my two e-mail messages: one with full set of questions; the other with specific allocation for answer 2. When reasonably could you deliver? 3. As explained, preferred format would be a one/two sentence quick reply, followed by a 2/3 par more focused explanation/justification, including where necessary any IPCC quotes. Although there will be a final drafting here by Greenpeace, still useful to remember the target gropup - the final paper is aimed at non-specialist journalists who will be covering Kyoto, & non science graduate GP Campaigners worldwide who are likely to have to field questions 4. Let me know your sense of consultancy fee - or how long it will take - so that I can start organising payment this end 5. Time lines: (Difficult one as not being a scientist it's almost impossible to assess with any accuracy). Hopefully end of week - Tues/Wed next week final final final .... although it might be a good idea if you were maybe to feed back two or three answers once completed 6. Slight amendment to 3 of the questions, (all quasi-typos): Question 12 ...... should read "1963 & 1986" (not 1963 & 1968) Question 26 (a) ... should read "radio sondes" not "radio sounds" Question 32 ....... "the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere both promotes GROWTH and reduces the demand for water .........." I'll call you in a bit Cheers Iain 4475. 1997-10-01 15:29:06 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 1 Oct 1997 15:29:06 -0600 (MDT) from: Tom Wigley subject: Forwarded mail.... to: Mike Hulme Dear Mike, Can you send me data on grid box elevations for the USA? I'd like these for both the HadCM2 GCM and for the real world. I realize that there are different ways to define a grid-box elevation, so I'll leave that choice up to you. My main concern is to determine elevation differences, so I can account for this effect in validating HadCM temperatures. This is probably an issue you have though about, so I'd appreciate your insights and opinions. For example, does one normally (or can one) account for any global-mean bias; are there any seasonally-specific effects, etc. Cheers, Tom P.S. See also attached item sent to John Mitchell. Do you have any thoughts on this? ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 29 Sep 1997 11:44:56 -0600 (MDT) From: Tom Wigley To: "J.M. Gregory" , John Mitchell Cc: Robert Wilby Dear John and Jonathan, Have you ever done any work on explaining why precipitation changes in GCM runs (or do you know of any such work)? The key physical factors should be: changes in the circulation (e.g., vorticity, divergence), changes in the moisture held by the atmosphere (e.g., as measured by specific humidity), or changes in cloudiness. Rob Wilby and I have looked at the circulation and moisture factors statistically in HadCM2 and find that they are nowhere near enough to explain the precipitation changes. From other models, I know that cloud changes in perturbation experiments have low SNR, so I doubt that they are the answer. So what is it? Could there be some effect through the way the precipitation on/off is parameterized in the model -- i.e., something that may not be realistically linked to what happens in the real world? As a related issue, we recently looked at precipitation changes in the 9-box region around Hawaii. In the control run, there is little change between roughly 1990 and 2040, but then an increase of around 30% (similar in all seasons) between 2040 and 2090. This seems a very big change, given no forcing. I wonder whether this could be an artifact of the strong zone of coherence HadCM2 has in the tropics -- if this were a wet zone, and it showed a low-frequency northward (or poleward) change, Hawaii could be mainly outside the zone to around 2040 and then "move" to mainly within it? Any ideas? How is HadCM3 going? Is there any point in trying to understand HadCM2 if it is soon to be replaced by HadCM3? Cheers, Tom ********************************************************** *Tom M.L. Wigley * *Senior Scientist * *National Center for Atmospheric Research * *P.O. Box 3000 * *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * *USA * *Phone: 303-497-2690 * *Fax: 303-497-2699 * *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * ********************************************************** 4540. 1997-10-02 12:12:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: Rob.Swart@rivm.nl date: Thu, 2 Oct 1997 12:12:12 0100 from: Joseph Alcamo subject: Statement and Letters to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, I have too much going on and can't seem to stay on schedule. Anyway, I attach -- 1. Revised Statement -- down to one page! (partly by cheating on the font size). 2. Draft letter to "the ten" 3. Draft letter to "all". Revise the letters as you see fit, although I would be happy to discuss them with you by phone, if you wish. How goes it with the assistance from WWF? Best wishes Joe Alcamo ---------------------------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo, Director Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Kurt Wolters Strasse 3 D-34109 Kassel Germany Phone: +49 561 804 3898 Fax: +49 561 804 3176 3275. 1997-10-03 18:22:50 ______________________________________________________ cc: 101322.3724@compuserve.com, merylym.hedger@ecu.ox.ac.uk, wwfmrae@ozemail.com.au, lgjensen@wwf.de, singer@wwf.de, sschone@wwfnet.org, cfarrow@wwfnet.org, kgill@wwfnet.org, nmabey@wwfnet.org, rpellew@wwfnet.org, adam.markham@WWFUS.org, gisele.mcauliffe@wwfus.org, peter.debrine@wwfus.org date: Fri, 03 Oct 1997 18:22:50 +0100 from: Merylyn McKenzie-Hedger subject: European Scientists climate statement -Reply to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike as we have discussed, and following my chat with Adam, we are of course enthusaistic about your project. As agreed I am copying the details to colleagues. UEA will get 10 key people to craft a European version of the US science and economist letters. You will get it signed onto. Would like 750 of help from us for that. Then you will send this to heads of state in November. You want WWF to organise a press event around that at a suitable location(s) (London/Geneva/Brussels). There is money in the UK (SP5) budget here and I will discuss that with Nick Mabey as mentioned. He should be your contact here. Otherwise Lars Georg Jensen in WWF Denmark is a key contact for the TDA. We will no doubt talk again soon about other things! >>> Mike Hulme 12/September/1997 10:42am >>> Merylyn, Following Rob Swart's contact with you, I would like to speak about ways we can activate this climate statement, ideally before I leave for Holland on Tuesday. I will try phoning you on Monday or you can contact me at my office: 01603 593162: Monday 9am-2.30pm and 6.30-11.00pm or home: 01603 453312: Monday 3-6pm or Tuesday am Thanks, Mike ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ Norwich NR4 7TJ **************************************************************************** *** NOW PUBLISHED: 'Climates of the British Isles' (eds. Hulme,M. and Barrow,E.M.) Have a look at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/cotbi/ **************************************************************************** *** Mean temp. in C.England during 1997 has been about 1.1degC above the 1961-90 average. The maximum temperature in Norwich: Thursday 11 September: 19.3degC. 3368. 1997-10-06 16:59+0 ______________________________________________________ cc: jfbmitchell@meadow.meto.gov.uk, mnoguer@meadow.meto.gov.uk date: Mon, 06 Oct 1997 16:59 +0000 (GMT) from: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk subject: TGCIA ad hoc meeting to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, cubasch@dkrz.de, mparry@geog.ucl.ac.uk Dear Martin, Ulrich and Mike, After some discussions at the IPCC plenary meeting at the Maldives, it was decided that the selection of a DDC should be done by the Task Group due to the technical aspects to be considered in the decision. Different countries made nominations for the establishment of a DDC. An ad hoc group with those countries that made the nominations was established and we met to consider the different proposals. It was concluded that CRU and DKRZ were the ones that could undertake the tasks most appropriately. In order to set up the responsibilities of each of the centres and to finalize the commitments of the DDC it would be a good idea to have a meeting. This meeting would only have to involve the following members of the Task Group: M Parry, U Cubasch, M Hulme, R Moss, D Griggs and myself The most appropriate date for Richard and Dave would be 22 October, here in Bracknell (they will be flying to Bonn (for SBSTA) on the 23rd). Can you all make that date? Please get back to me as soon as possible, Many thanks, Maria *************************************************  Dr. Maria Noguer  IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit  Hadley Centre   Met Office  London Road  Bracknell Berks, RG12 2SY UK Tel: +44 (0) 1344 854938 Fax: +44 (0) 1344 856912  Email: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk   ************************************************ 1186. 1997-10-07 14:55:31 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 7 Oct 1997 14:55:31 +0200 from: Angela.LIBERATORE@DG12.cec.be subject: Copy of: climate: Japanese proposal to: "m.hulme" , "Martin.OConnor" , alcamo , jaeger , dvm , eepriia , hourcade , "t.jackson" , jaeger , vertic , "pier.vellinga" , pweingart , fy1 From: Andrew Kerr <101322.3724@compuserve.com> Sender: Andrew Kerr <101322.3724@compuserve.com> To: Peter DEBRINE , Patricia DESMARES , Cherry FARROW , Elizabeth FOLEY , Karen GILL , "Merylyn HEDGER (wwfnet)" , Martin HILLER , Aldo IACOMELLI , Lars Georg JENSEN , Steve JUDD , Paolo LOMBARDI , Tony LONG , Sten LUNDBERG , Nick MABEY , Adam MARKHAM , Gisele McAULIFFE , Konrad MEYER , Stefan MOIDL , Lee POSTON , Michael RAE , Andrea RIES , Sible SCHONE , Stephan SINGER , Marc van den TWEEL , Marijke UNGER , Koichi WATANABE 2 , Helge WEINBERG Cc: Michael Brown , "Kornelis BLOK (ecofys)" , "Kornelis BLOK (univ)" , Yvo de BOER , Michael BROWN <100563.1340@compuserve.com>, Renate CHRIST , Kirsty HAMILTON , Kirsty HAMILTON 2 , Sabri ZAIN , Bill HARE 1 , Bill HARE 2 , Martina KRUEGER , Penehuro LEFALE , Yasuko MATSUMOTO , Paul METZ , Katarina PANJI , "Michel RAQUET (dg11)" , Holger ROENITZ , Cornelia SIDLER , "Ad van WIJK (ecofys)" , "Ad van WIJK (uu)" Subject: climate: Japanese proposal Message-ID: <199710051347_MC2-22DC-A5E4@compuserve.com> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" From: Andrew Kerr, WWF Climate Change Campaign re.: "scandalous" Japanese climate change proposal Dear All I am in Japan for the next week. If you need to, you can contact me by phone at the following numbers: * Monday - +81 10 760 5022 (Yurika?s mobile) * Tuesday-Thursday - via WWF Japan. Tel: +81 3 3769 1711; fax: 3326 1717. * Friday - Tokyo Grand Hotel. Tel: +81 3 3456 2222 Tomorrow the Japanese government is due to formally announce its emission reduction proposal for the industrialised world for the Kyoto climate summit: a maximum of a 5% reduction from 1990 levels for a basket of three greenhouse gases over the period 2008-2012. In a second period up to 2017, industrialised countries would not be obliged to make further reductions. See below for fuller details and an analysis of the emission reduction implications for various industrialised nations. The information has been well-leaked. In a talk to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan last Friday I described the proposal as a "joke". This was well picked up by the written press here. Now more details have emerged, the proposal is even weaker than first thought. We are faxing a press release out this afternoon to Japan-based agencies and press with WWF?s reaction (see below). You might like to join in the condemnation of what Japan is proposing and ensure that your country flatly rejects the proposal. Japan?s Special Ambassador, Toshiaki Tanabe, is on a world tour canvassing for the support of other industrialised nations. After visiting Washington DC he moved on to Hawaii a few days ago for an informal conference including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US. Today's Yomiuri Shimbun gave front-page coverage to Australia?s outrage over the stringency of the Japanese proposal! Tanabe is moving to Europe for talks in the next few days. It is vital that European governments reject the proposal in no uncertain terms and urge Japan to at least support the EU standpoint. (Note: the WWF policies and measures study for Japan identifies how to cut CO2 emissions 8.8% below 1990 levels by 2005 and 14.8% by 2010 - very similar to the EU position). It would also be very useful if progressive business groups would express their horror at the new economic opportunities which will be foregone if Kyoto is a flop. Best wishes, Andrew --- CLIMATE CHANGE: JAPANESE PROPOSAL FOR KYOTO To be formally announced by the Japanese government, Monday 6 October 1997 Following information is from the Nikkei Journal, 4 October 1997 A. Content of the proposal 1. First period: the five years from 2008 to 2012 Reduction of 5%; Base year: 1990 1) Gases: CO2, methane, Nitrous oxide 2) Target figures will be flexible according to the future energy situation, changes in industrial structures, etc. But in any case, the total emission should not exceed 1990 level. 3) Each country's target would be based on emission per GDP, emission per capita, and population growth rate. If emission per GDP of 1990 (A) is smaller than emission per GDP of all countries (B), the reduction rate should be 5%x(A/B) If per capita emission of 1990(C) is smaller than per capita emission of all countries (D), the reduction rate should be 5%x(C/D). If population growth rate from 1990 to 1995 is more than the population growth rate of all other countries, the reduction target of that country should put into consideration their high population growth rate. Banking, Borrowing, Joint Implementaion and Emission Trading schemes should be introduced with certain conditions. 2. Second period: 2013-2017 Emission should not exceed the level of the first period. More sophisticated differentiation scheme should be adopted for the second period. B. Implications of the proposal Resulting emission reduction targets for the five years 2008-2012, relative to 1990: % Australia 1.8 Czech Republic 5.0 Denmark 2.5 Germany 3.1 Italy 2.5 Japan 2.5 Portugal 1.6 Russia 5.0 Spain 2.2 Switzerland 1.3 UK 3.7 US 2.6 Overall reduction for all industrialised countries: 3.2 % --- WWF PRESS RELEASE JAPAN PROPOSAL FOR KYOTO SUMMIT SCANDALOUS, WWF SAYS KYOTO, JAPAN, 5 October 1997 ? The World Wide Fund for Nature condemned as "scandalous" the Japanese government?s proposal for reducing greenhouse gases responsible for climate change, Sunday, and called on industrialised nations to flatly reject it. As full details of the proposal emerged over the weekend, it was revealed that Japan suggests allowing industrialised countries to make extremely marginal reductions in their emissions by as late as 2008-2012. In a second five-year period up to 2017, countries would only be required to ensure their emissions were lower than in 1990. "The Japanese plan presents a bleak future for the environment, already suffering from the serious impacts of global warming including rising sea-levels, rising sea temperatures, and increased extreme weather patterns ? to name just a few," said Andrew Kerr of WWF?s international Climate Change Campaign. "The plan is laughable when you consider that some European nations already have cut their greenhouse gas emissions by several times more than the amount Japan proposes for emission reductions more than a decade from now." According to the just released "WWF State of the Climate" report that evaluates the global impacts of climate change, a long list of impacts already are visible today including the destruction of several land and marine ecosystems in Asia and around the world because they cannot keep up with the pace of global warming. The Japanese proposal also proves the government is back-tracking on a Ministerial Declaration concluded at the 1996 climate summit in Geneva. At that conference, 130 countries, including Japan, agreed that the Kyoto Summit should agree on "legally-binding objectives for emission limitations and significant overall reductions" of greenhouse gases. At the Geneva meeting, the Ministers recognised that climate change science showed human activities, primarily the burning of coal, oil and gasoline, are already affecting the planet?s climate and the impacts would be wide-ranging and irreversible, posing threats to food supplies, public health and the survival of many species. Nations also agreed that "significant reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically possible and economically feasible". WWF is calling on industrial nations to cut their carbon dioxide emissions 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2005. A WWF report written by Dr. Haruki Tsuchiya of the Research Institute for Systems Technology, in Tokyo, (to be released by WWF later this month) shows that Japan can reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by nearly nine percent by 2005 and by almost 15 percent by 2010 without damaging the economy. Policies and measures suggested by the WWF report would stimulate the economy and help position Japan as a world leader in the development of new, energy efficient technologies. "Environmentally, Japan?s plan is worse than no plan whatsoever because it pretends to legitimise an emissions cut that is so low it will produce no tangible result in the effort to combat climate change, " said Kerr. "Even more alarming, it encourages many nations also to cut their emissions by much less than they now plan. This proposal is an embarrassment for Japan because it spells disaster for the Kyoto Summit in December which will be seen as an absolute failure by several European nations and the entire environmental community if such meagre greenhouse gas emission cuts are adopted." The complicated emission-reduction formulae that Japan proposes would require Japan to make only a 2.5 percent cut in emissions. The United States, responsible for over one-fifth of world releases of carbon dioxide, would only need to make a 2.6 percent reduction. Highlighting the political irrelevance of the Japanese formula, Germany, Denmark and the UK would have to make reductions of 3.1 percent, 2.5 percent and 3.7 percent respectively. But Germany already has achieved around half of its national target of cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 25 percent by 2005. Denmark is aiming for a 20 percent reduction by the same date and the UK?s target is a 20 percent cut by 2010. Contact: Andrew Kerr or Yurika Ayukawa. Mobile tel: 010-760 5022 and Hearton Hotel, 075-222 1300. 981. 1997-10-08 09:45:03 ______________________________________________________ cc: cfarrow@wwfnet.org date: Wed, 08 Oct 1997 09:45:03 +0100 from: Nick Mabey subject: European climate statement -Reply to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Hi Mike, A quick reply before I go to the Tory Conference: 1/ MMH did not mention this to me but it seems a good idea in principle - however we should talk about targets etc to make sure Europe needs more movement on the sience side - perhaps an economic approach would be more politically usefull. 2/ Conditional on 1 we have some funding and could do the lauch 3/ If you cant contact me over the next few days talk to Cherry Farrow who runs the press side of the climate campaign about this and I will be in touch with her Talk to you soon Nick mabey PS Could you email me your phone number! 4855. 1997-10-09 12:24:19 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 09 Oct 1997 12:24:19 -0400 from: Caspar Ammann to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Dear Dr. Hulme, my name is Caspar Ammann. I'm working as a Ph.D. student for Raymond Bradley at the University of Massachusetts. He told me to collect Dust Veil Index data from the time period 1985 to 1995. I knew that H. Lamb was updating his pubicated data of early seventies in Climate Monitor, but I could not found any more recent data since 1983 (Climate Monitor 12, No. 3). So my questions: are you still updating DVI at the Climatic Research Unit? If yes, would you be able to send me yearly N-Hemispheric values 1985-1995? If not, do you know, where I could get them? Thanks a lot for your help already! Sincerely, Caspar Ammann ------------------------------------------------------------ Caspar Ammann University of Massachusetts Department of Geosciences Climate Lab Phone : ++1 +413 545 27 94 Morrill Science Center Fax : ++1 +413 545 12 00 Amherst, MA 01003-5820, USA email : caspar@geo.umass.edu ------------------------------------------------------------ 4233. 1997-10-13 11:52:57 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Oct 13 11:52:57 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: cruddy chapter immediate need!! to: m.baillie@qub.ac.uk Mike I am committed to, and late , producing a paper for some special issue of Climate Change that Christian Pfister is editing. I promised it a year ago!! Now I wish to do it this week and I wondered if I could include a page from the EC report showing the clusters for European oaks for the period from 1500 onwards (page 58) and just put Hubert's name on the author list. I would prefer to get him/Ena to redo the clustering with more low frequency in - but its presumably out of the question in a week. I also wondered if you could reproduce some of the sort of curves you do from 1500 onwards so I could say something about those - of course I would include you on the author list - but this is not going to be a classic. However, it would be nice to have your perspective in this. Time is a real problem though so if it just means lifting the curves you've already done can we do that please? I tried ringing you but without luck so can you give me a ring. The focus of the paper is the 16th century and the period 1550 - 1600 within that - though of course I'd like to give a longer term context. Let me know as soon as you can whether you/we can cobble something together quick. Thanks Keith 5051. 1997-10-24 15:35:36 ______________________________________________________ date: Fri, 24 Oct 1997 15:35:36 -0500 from: Joel Smith subject: Transfer to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike, I've been told that we wired $1300 today to your account. Please let me know if you've received. I put in a request to Feenstra to cover you for another two days - one for the uncompensated day you've already put in and the second for this next round of revisions (most of which I can probably handle). Joel 3009. 1997-11-02 22:17:02 ______________________________________________________ date: Sun, 02 Nov 1997 22:17:02 from: Alastair Grant subject: six day creation to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk I've done a little thinking about your problem. I wonder whether it might be worthwhile trying to tackle the underlying issues about the relationship between scientific method and scripture, rather than tackling the creationism head on? If you you for the creationist jugular, then you automatically get into a confrontation and, as you noted, the creationist views may be so closely ingrained into his whole thinking that movement on this might undermine a major part of his faith. Hooykas particularly springs to mind (I have a copy of religion and the rise of modern science, if you don't) but there is some relevant material in Colin Russel's books too. You might also try discussing the Galileo issue as an example of where most would now agree that the church got it wrong on the basis of scriptural interpretation (albeit the catholics rather than BCS!). Another possible approach is the literature which looks at the theological context of the Genesis narrative and argues that it is couched as a polemic against the Babylonian creation myth rather than being primarily designed as a science text book (Blocher would be a start on this, but I've got a useful book by Wiseman that discusses this in detail from a very conservative perspective). But I suspect that line may not cut much ice. Hope this is of some help, best wishes, Alastair Dr. Alastair Grant School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. Phone 01603 592537 Fax 01603 507719 Email: A.Grant@uea.ac.uk WWW: http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e130/ag.htm 927. 1997-11-03 18:25:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 03 Nov 1997 18:25:44 +0100 from: Cherry Farrow subject: kyoto -Reply to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Hello Mike - two thinhs - we can help you with politicians - our two parliamentary (public affairs ) officers here are talking with MPs constantly on this one - adn could come up with a suitable list..ref CLimate action Network - we're part of that umbrella organisation. I know delia well (she used to be WWF) and is now with them in Brussels. Obviously, given the money we've contributed to the process I would rather that we release the letter to them AFTER the press - that's how we would normally do it - they will then go ahead under their own letterhead - If you want to retain "neutrality" then it would be better that they pick it up separately than that you release it to them, which would align you with 122 NGOs...but it is right and proper they should have it at some time....We can help you with the database of journos of course - obvious ones are Paul Brown, Nick Schoon, Charles Clover, Fred Pearce, Geoffrey lean Jonathan Leake etc., and Julian Rush or Andy Veitch at Ch4 news - remember they have to "sell" it to their news editors. which means they need time to write the story too - if you want a real ppiece with real analysis then give them lead in time under an embargo - and remember certain of them cannot be trusted not to break the embargo (we can tell you who!)...we ought to talk at the beginning of next week perhaps? 1483. 1997-11-03 18:28:04 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon Nov 3 18:28:04 1997 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: to: Tom Wigley Tom thanks for the info. Actually this is a chance for me to to mention that we have for the last few months at least, been reworking the idea of looking in the Schweingruber network data for evidence of increasing tree growth and hence ,potentially at least, evidence of changing tree(read biomass) uptake of carbon. The results are dramatic - not to say earth shattering because they demonstrate major time-dependent changes - but changes that are consistent in different areas of the network. We have regionalised over 350 site collections , each with ring width and density data , age-banded the data so that we look only at relative growth in similar ages of trees through time and recombined the standardisd curves to produce growth changes in each region. Basically growth is roughly constant (except for relatively small climate variablity forcing) from 1700 to about 1850. It then increases linearly by about up until about 1950 after which time young ( up to 50 year old) basal area explodes but older trees remain constant . The implication is a major increase in carbon uptake before the mid 20th century - temperatue no doubt partly to blame but much more likely to be nitrate/Co2 . Equally important though is the levelling off of carbon uptake in the later 20th century. This levelling is coincident with the start of a density decline - we have a paper coming out in Nature documenting the decline . In relative terms (i.e. by comparison with increasing summer temperatures) the decline is represented in the ring width and basal area data as a levelling off in the long-timescale inrease ( which you only see when you process the data as we have). The density data do not show the increase over and above what you expect from temperature forcing. I have been agonising for months that these results are not some statistical artifact of the analysis method but we can't see how. For just two species (spruce in the western U.S. Great Basin area and larch in eastern Siberia) we can push the method far enough to get an indication of much longer term growth changes ( from about 1400) and the results confirm a late 20th century apparent fertilization! The method requires standardizing (localized mean subtraction and standard deviation division) by species/age band so we reconstruct relative (e.g. per cent change) only . We have experimented with integrating the different signals in basal area and density(after extracting intra ring ring width and density data where available) within a 'flat mass' measure which shows a general late 20th century increase - but whether this incorporates a defensible relative waiting on the different components (and what the relative carbon components are) is debatable. We now need to make some horrible simplistic assumptions about absolute carbon in these (relatively small) components of the total biomass carbon pool and imlpications for terrestrial and total carbon fluxes over the last few hundred years - and beyond! Without these implications we will have difficulty convincing Nature that this work is mega important. There are problems with explaining and interpreting these data but they are by far the best produced for assessing large scale carbon-cycle-relevant vegetation changes - at least as regards well-dated continous trends. I will send you a couple of Figures ( a tiny sample of the literally hundreds we have) which illustrate some of this. I would appreciate your reaction. Obviously this stuff is very hush hush till I get a couple of papers written up on this. We are looking at a moisture sensive network of data at the moment to see if any similar results are produced when non-temperature-sensitive data are used. You would expect perhaps a greater effect in such data if Co2 acts on the water use efficiency . At 09:30 AM 11/3/97 -0700, you wrote: >Dear Keith, > >Look at Tremblay et al. GRL 24, 2027-30 (1997) and Dyke et al. Arctic 50, >1-16 (1997). These papers deal with driftwood in the Arctic over the past >9000 years. They note that genera can be distinguished, but not species >Hence, they can't say where the wood comes from, North America versus >Europe. Surely cross-dating could do this? May be worth getting in touch >with Dyke et al. > >Tom > > > ********************************************************** > *Tom M.L. Wigley * > *Senior Scientist * > *National Center for Atmospheric Research * > *P.O. Box 3000 * > *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * > *USA * > *Phone: 303-497-2690 * > *Fax: 303-497-2699 * > *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * > ********************************************************** > > 4428. 1997-11-04 11:02:54 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 4 Nov 1997 11:02:54 -0700 (MST) from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: protocols to: Mike Hulme Dear Mike, What I said about your paper still holds -- TP4 makes it largely unnecessary, and the S issue is more complex than your analysis implied. Steve Smith, Hugh Pitcher and I have produced new, spatially detailed SO2 emissions scenarios that are based on CO2 concentration stabilization. We are using these in O/AGCM runs here, in collaboration with Hadley and CSIRO -- the runs will begin early next year. As far as I know, IPCC is only looking at BAU cases -- which we have done as well, of course. Given that the FCCC goal is CO2 stabilization, I can't see the point in re-doing BAU cases. Re MAGICC, there is a more serious aerosol breakdown problem. I'll have to tell you more about it later (and fix it of course). The errors involved, however, are quite small -- so don't panic. By May next year, we will have O/AGCM results consistent with FCCC and including direct and indirect aerosol effects that you can compare with SCENGEN. I think Mickey's job opening has closed -- i.e., deadline for applications is past. NCAR is offering more $ for ESIG, so it is quite an attractive job. Cheers, Tom On Mon, 3 Nov 1997, Mike Hulme wrote: > Tom, > > I got a copy of your comments on the Subak et al. paper, and also your > email of course. > > You're right in thinking the manuscript was hastily prepared. Susan sent > off the final version to Martin Parry before I had had a second look at it. > Also, we undertook the work under the false assumption that TP4 did not have > T and MSL estimates included (the July version I had on my desk indeed did > not have these in). I agree that given the final appearance of TP4, our work > loses some of it significance. What the actual Kyoto outcome will be will > also > need interpretation. (Clinton's proposal for stabilisation by 2012, actually > makes virtually no difference from a 2000 stablisation for Annex 1 countries > in terms of 2050 or 2100 T change; the WRE 1996 analysis and conclusion > remains > largely valid). > > Our intention though was to provide some quantification of what the various > Kyoto proposals mean in T and MSL terms and, also, importantly, to demonstrate > that uncertainties in the S aerosols component in global-mean terms are very > large re. what has been tabled. These uncertainties relate of course both > to the > forcing (as your earlier work shows), but also the emissions (i.e., the old > IS92 > S scenarios are now largely invalid and have been superceeded by WEC and > IIASA and > will be further superceeded next year by IPCC). Indeed, the new IS98/99 S > scenarios will > be radically different and will therefore yield very different regional > climate > changes to the '1995' vintage GCM experiments of HADCM2, ECHAM3 and GFDL. > In fact, > over Europe, for example, S emissions are likely to fall _below_ 1990 > levels hence > we should be adding warming and not cooling for next century. This is > exactly the situation for which MAGICC/SCENGEN has been designed. > > I have set up a system for handling MAGICC/SCENGEN requests, and am keeping > all > Licence Agreements. If you ever want a list of who has got the software > then let me > know. Probably about 30 people/institutes so far. > > As far as MAGICC is concerned, I think the only problem that I am aware of re. > S aerosol forcing is that the global cooling values re. the regional S > emissions > are wrt 1990, rather than 1961-90. This causes a slight inconsistency in the > application of the results. If you think there is a more serious problem then > let me know. > > Yes, it would be nice to have a more complete revised MAGICC handbook from > you, but > for now MAGICC 2.3 has an on-line help facility which provides some basic > information > for the novice. > > The IPCC have agreed for us, together with DKRZ Hamburg, to handle the > climate change > scenarios for the TAR. We should have something up and running by > April/May next > year. This will be a web site, with on-line tutorial about scenarios, and > also a > CD-ROM with aggregate datasets, scenarios and our new baseline climatology. > If there > is anything I should know about what ACACIA is doing and using, then please > let me > know (or else I'll get it from Rob). > > Finally, what do you know about Micky Glantz's position being advertised? > Is that > an opening worth looking at in more detail or is it a poisoned chalice > given NCAR > politics? > > Cheers, > > Mike > > > > > > > > > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 > Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 > School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ > Norwich NR4 7TJ > **************************************************************************** > > Mean temp. in C.England during 1997 has been about 1.0degC above the > 1961-90 average. > The maximum temperature in Norwich: Sunday 2 November: 10.7degC. > > > ********************************************************** *Tom M.L. Wigley * *Senior Scientist * *National Center for Atmospheric Research * *P.O. Box 3000 * *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * *USA * *Phone: 303-497-2690 * *Fax: 303-497-2699 * *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * ********************************************************** 352. 1997-11-05 10:09:42 ______________________________________________________ cc: naki@uea.ac.uk date: Wed, 05 Nov 1997 10:09:42 +0100 from: Arnulf GRUBLER subject: Re: SRES minutes to: Mike Hulme Dear Mike Thanks for your precision concerning the minutes. I'll take a note and report back at our next meeting. I personally had never the illusion that new GCM runs AND new scenarios could be used for the TAR. Personally I also do not think this is a major issue, as long as CONSISTENCY can be maintained. Your suggestion of reinterpreting the two GCM (1 and 0.5 % increase) runs for impact assessment with data, storylines, etc. of the the new IS98 scenarios is indeed excellent. This would be also of great use for impact assessment in general as only the new IS98 scenarios provide the kind of contextual and quantitative data (GDP structure, etc.) impact assessment requires. The only major open consistency issue as you correctly state is that of sulfur emissions, where numbers will be very different (lower) in the new IS98 scenarios, at least in the "success" scenarios compared to IS92. You will have to educate me if it is possible to rescale some of the GCM runs with lower sulfur emissions. If not, well then one needs to be explicit about this shortcoming for the TAR analysis and start a.s.a.p. a quick analysis of how big the difference would be in case IS98 sulfur emissions had been included. Somewhat naively I assume that you guys must have a couple of runs with LOW sulfur emissions available (e.g. based on the IIASA-WEC A3 scenario, or some other similar one). Concerning first quantifications by March. I can only speak for our group here at IIASA, and it is feasible to provide quantifications for most of the new scenarios/variants by March (at least for A1, B1, and B2; A2 with it's "fragmentation" story is a difficult nut to crack with formal models that generally prefer stylized general relationships amenable to quantitative modeling). I do not know yet which ones will come close to the 1% and 0.5% GCM scenarios, but considering the many variants and subscenarios, it is a reasonable expectation that matching pairs can be identified. We have agreed on a minimum reporting standard of 4 regions for IS98 at RIVM. Of course finer geographical detail will be made available from different models (our models e.g. use 11 regions, for IS98 we aggregate them to 4, as simply no time is left to redesign a 4-region model, or to analyze 11 regions in detail and report them). I note your interest in sulfur data. Data can be made available for 11 world regions. I cannot provide emissions by altitude; what is feasible however, is to seperate large point sources (with high stack heights) from diffuse sources (e.g. household fuel use). If this is of interest, please let me know a.s.a.p. so we can change it in the models. Please indicate also further data requirements beyond sulfur where higher spatial resolution is essential rather than simply of interest, so I can try to plan for providing the maximum possible. Concerning the data distribution center I strongly suggest you stay in touch with Naki on this. I personally feel that extremely useful synergies could be exploited if you would also host directly the SRES site. In any case I stronlgy urge you to consider joining the SRES group again, so we can continue exchange on all of these issues. Best regards, Arnulf. Arnulf GRUBLER International Institute for | Email: gruebler@iiasa.ac.at Applied Systems Analysis | Phone: +43 2236 807 470 A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria | Fax: +43 2236 71313 2510. 1997-11-10 14:17:26 ______________________________________________________ cc: mparry@geog.ucl.ac.uk, mnoguer@meto.gov.uk date: Mon, 10 Nov 1997 14:17:26 -0500 from: rmoss@usgcrp.gov (Richard Moss) subject: Re: ENRICH to: Mike Hulme Mike: Thanks for forwarding the information on ENRICH as well as the proposal CRU submitted. I haven't yet looked at the latter in detail, as I received it only this morning, but I will. I have written to Steve Morgan of IPCC's interest in acting in a catalytic capacity to help spark something, and I indicated that we could move quickly to submit a proposal for preparatory support to develop a training proposal, if we can find the right institutional partners. Earlier, I contacted Hassan Virji and Roland Fuchs at START. To my surprise, they were lukewarm about the possibility of collaboration on this, primarily (it seemed to me)because they felt ENRICH would not be likely to channel support to such a training activity through them. I indicated that I thought it could go through a partnership of some European institution and a participating START center, such as BIOTROP in Indonesia. They were still lukewarm, perhaps because of the ongoing effort they are involved in on integrated assessment. I would have thought this created more opportunities for synergy, but perhaps I'm wrong. Anyway, I'm not sure what else to do for the moment other than to wait and see if Steven Morgan has a more positive response. I'll keep you posted. Thanks again for the information and a copy of your proposal. Richard NOTE NEW ADDRESS AND PHONE NUMBERS EFFECTIVE MONDAY 25 AUGUST IPCC Working Group II TSU 400 Virginia Avenue SW Washington, DC 20024 USA General number: 1 202 314-2225 Direct number: 1 202 314-2224 Fax: 1 202 488-8678 email: rmoss@usgcrp.gov or ipcc@usgcrp.gov 4300. 1997-11-10 15:34:56 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 10 Nov 1997 15:34:56 -0700 (MST) from: Tom Wigley subject: Re: MMIA (NSF) proposal to: Mike Hulme Dear Mike, I appreciate your concerns regarding putting SUL (or the ECHAM3 equivalent) into SCENGEN. The reason I suggested it is in order to make this information more readily available to users -- the only alternative is through LINK. The demand for this is very large. David Viner can provide proof of this; but, also, I have used HadCM2 SUL in a series of state-by-state information sheets published by EPA. These are being distributed by the tens of thousands, so the potential demand for HadCM2 SUL results is much larger than currently. If we can supply this through SCENGEN, this would be a big boost for SCENGEN. Of course, one would have to add some additional information (caveats) for this specific model -- and put in a "lock" so it could not be used in conjunction with other models. Note that scaling by delta-T is still okay. The problem of realism and applicability is one that is common to all model data sets in SCENGEN (albeit in a slightly different way), so I don't think this is a serious issue. Carrying your argument to an extreme would mean abandoning SCENGEN completely! The bottom line of this is that I STRONGLY urge you to put HadCM2 SUL into SCENGEN. In my view, the benefits FAR outweigh any negative aspects. This is not just an "off the cuff" suggestion, but one that I have thought through and discussed with a number of people. John Mitchell should know about the ESO2 scenarios, although I may not have updated him on them recently. I've not talked to Dave Roberts directly. I assumed John was filling him in, but perhaps not. What we have done so far is develop time and spatially dependent ESO2 scenarios consistent with WRE550 (and others consistent with IS92a). It is a non-trivial task, but we are well aware of all the problems, pitfalls and complexities. We are, of course, also in touch with IIASA on this. Hugh Pitcher's involvement ensures consistency with what IPCC is doing. I have, in addition, also looked at other pathways to 550 ppmv accounting for protocols -- see Nov. 20 issue of _Nature_. I'll send you a report on the ESO2 work if you are interested. Cheers, Tom P.S. I don't agree with your statement that aerosols will "become of vanishing relevance" in Europe -- certainly not over the next 50 years, which is what people are most concerned about now. On Wed, 5 Nov 1997, Mike Hulme wrote: > Tom, > > SCENGEN currently has, in aging order of vintage: > > HADCM2 > ECHAM3-TR > CSIRO-Mk2 > UKTR > CSIRO > CCCEQ > BMRC > LLNL > ECHAM1-TR > UKHI > OSU > UKLO > GFDL > GISSEQ > > We have put Mike Schlesinger's aerosol patterns into SCENGEN using our > three regions. Mechanically, MAGICC/SCENGEN now works and allows variable > regional aerosol patterns to be generated. The questions however concern > additivity of T and P patterns and also S:N ratios re. precip. > > At present we only have the first realisation from HADCM2 (i.e., not the > ensemble mean) in SCENGEN and only the pattern from the 1% pa forcing rather > then the 0.5% pa forcing. These are matters we could change of course. > > About SUL runs from HADCM2 and ECHAM3 I'm not so sure. Yes, mechanically > we could put in the HADCM2 SUL patterns and scale them by a global dT, but > I don't think this is desirable. What would be a better solution would be > to difference the GHG and SUL patterns from HADCM2 and then treat this > difference > as the aerosol pattern and treat these fields like we have treated Mike > Schlesinger's results. The problem with this is that the aerosol patterns > (if one > could deconvolve them from the GHG patterns) in HADCM2 relate to one S > emissions > scenario with a particular geography. Unlike what Schlesinger did, for > some regions > the aerosol forcing in HADCM2 reduces to very small levels by 2100 > (therefore there > is only a very weak and probably meaningless aerosol signal remaining). For > precip. > I have showed this happening over Europe. > > Bottom line is that I am not convinced that we should use the HADCM2 and > ECHAM3 SUL > runs in SCENGEN. Much better to use Schlesinger's results and add them to the > GHG simulations from the good GCMs. > > About new O/AGCM runs, if I understand you correctly Hadley Centre (as well > as CSIRO and > NCAR) will be using new regionalised SO2 emissions scenarios in a > stablisation experiment > early next year. Does Dave Roberts (S transport modeller at Hadley) know > about this? > Last week he seemed not to. I guess I should talk to John Mitchell instead. > > The new SRES scenarios (4 or 6) are all supposed to be 'BAU' scenarios > (although the > distinction between BAU and policy intervention begins to blur) since that is > what IPCC have asked them to do. These different futures _do_ need to be > interpreted in > climate terms and the versatility of MAGICC/SCENGEN is excellent for this > without > calling upon more GCM runs. The FCCC only deals with CO2 stabilisation of > course and > says nothing about S emissions. There are a number of possible S futures > compatible with > FCCC and probably none of them will look like IS92a. And in most S > futures, the > relative importance of S forcing vs. GHG forcing will diminish over time > (for most > if not all large regions). I still think that given the problems with > modelling indirect > aerosol effects, and the vanishing relevance of S forcing vs. GHG (cf. > halocarbons and > GHG forcing), that the majority of impacts work should relate to > GHG-induced climate > scenarios. Impacts work with aerosol-included scenarios should be an > additional > sensitivity analysis, but not a central one, more relevant for some regions > than > for others. > > For example over Europe and N.America, our (or anyone else's!) baseline > 1961-90 climate > has got a large aerosol signal embedded within it. Getting aerosol effects > right for > this region in scenario terms, means successfully being able to _remove_ > the aerosol signal > from the baseline climate, not _adding_ any aerosol signal. But clearly > what will > dominate future climate patterns for this region is GHG-induced change. > Aerosols > become of vanishing relevance. > > Mike > > At 12:20 04/11/97 -0700, you wrote: > >Dear Mike, > > > >Can you give me an update on SCENGEN please. > > > >(1) What GCMs are currently in the database? > > > >(2) Could you put HadCM2 SUL in? In other words, produce normalized > >changes for 2080-99 minus 1980-99 for the SUL run, and treat these like > >any other model. > > > >(3) Could you do (2), but use SUL (2080-99 minus 1980-99) minus CONTROL > >(2080-99 minus 1980-99) as a way of looking at the possible effects of > >drift in the model? > > > >(4) Have you composited Michael Schlesinger's runs into our three regions, > >North Atlantic, Asia, ROW? > > > >(5) Have you put these into SCENGEN yet? > > > >Cheers, > >Tom > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 > Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 > School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ > Norwich NR4 7TJ > **************************************************************************** > ********************************************************** *Tom M.L. Wigley * *Senior Scientist * *National Center for Atmospheric Research * *P.O. Box 3000 * *Boulder, CO 80307-3000 * *USA * *Phone: 303-497-2690 * *Fax: 303-497-2699 * *E-mail: wigley@ucar.edu * ********************************************************** 4077. 1997-11-17 10:20:16 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 17 Nov 97 10:20:16 CET from: richard.tol@ivm.vu.nl subject: re: re: positives and negatives to: "m.hulme" >Thanks for the comments. I agree about the idealism of Kyoto; I agree >that scientifically none of the proposals are well-founded; and I agree >that if the US really does stabilise by 2012 that would in itself be a >massive achievement. I agree, for example, that the UK have no clear plan >to achieve 20% reductions. > >But I also believe that without pressure and heckling then there would >be few incentives for governments or businesses to begin to start >thinking creatively about alternative transport policies, about non- >fossil fuel obligations, about energy-efficiency legislation, etc., etc. >This is why I am prepared to be part of such an initiative. Mike, I'm glad that we agree in principle: The most important thing is to get emission reduction going. I disagree, however, that supporting unrealistic goals is helpful, as that may well lead to frustration and and polarization. A slow start may be more effective in the long run. Richard 2601. 1997-11-19 16:41:12 ______________________________________________________ date: Wed, 19 Nov 1997 16:41:12 -0800 from: hm_pitcher@ccmail.pnl.gov (Hugh M Pitcher) subject: scenarios meeting to: m.hulme@UEA.AC.UK Mike, The question put to me by Richard Moss is whether we have or could create an emissions scenario which approximates the forcing used in the three scenarios for the TGCIA. We certainly can do this, but I would have to be able to convert the forcing from Magicc to the carbon equivalent expression used in the attached table. Is there some simple way to do this, or do we again get lost in the issue of atmospheric lifetimes etc. I would appreciate any advice you have on how to make the computation. thanks!! cheers, hugh ______________________________ Forward Header __________________________________ Subject: scenarios meeting Author: rh_moss@pnl.gov (Richard Moss) at -SMTPLink Date: 11/18/97 6:08 PM Hugh: We've been able to arrange the meeting, and so Naki, Cynthia, and I will get together. Seems like too good an opportunity to waste. I would like to talk to you beforehand. As a prelude to this, I'm sending detailed information about the forcings used in each of the model runs selected by the TGCIA (courtesy of Maria Noguer at WG I TSU). The issue is what it indicates about providing socio-economic data from one of the new scenarios, to accompany the climate data. We would need to make sure that the forcings were approximately the same. We should talk about when it might be possible to determine this for the new scenarios. Of course the GHG and aerosol forcing is not exactly the same as IS92 a either, although it is pretty close. The problem with the socio-economic data for the latter is that not all of the variables requested by the impacts community are available. Hadley forcing info in a MS word file attached (because of tabular info). Others follow below: ----------- GFDL forcing (Haywood et al, 1997): 300-year model integrations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations only, increasing sulphate and increasing greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations. The integrations are performed form 1765 to 2065. the experiment uses estimates of past, present and future sulphate and equivalent CO2 concentration from IS92a (IPCC (1992)); these are identical to those used in the Hadley Model (HADCM2) hh see above. The direct radiative forcing of sulphate aerosol is simulated by increasing the surface albedo (similar to the Hadley model but with slightly different coefficients to calculate the increase in surface albedo) In the control integration the concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosol are held constant. DKRZ/MPI forcing (ECHAM3/LSG) The ECHAM3/LSG model uses the same greenhouse gas/sulphate aerosol forcing as the Hadley model (HADCM2). The simulation starts in 1880 and run to 2050 (sulphate experiments) and to 2085 (greenhouse gases only). Contrary to the HADCM2 simulation, the ECHAM3/LSG simulation uses a time-dependent aerosol pattern. To gain a better statistical representation, the aerosol experiment was carried out twice with a slight modification in the aerosol forcing field. -------------- I'll be at PNNL tomorrow morning to attend a benefits briefing and will try to look you up immediately after. 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Bob Carling >X-Sender: cbdewitt@facstaff.wisc.edu >X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 2.1.2 >Approved-By: "Calvin B. DeWitt" >Date: Mon, 20 Oct 1997 05:43:45 -0500 >Reply-To: "Discussion list for evangelicals and the environment." > >Sender: "Discussion list for evangelicals and the environment." > >From: "Calvin B. DeWitt" >Subject: CEC Resolution on Climate Change >To: EEN-L@PEACH.EASE.LSOFT.COM > >Hello Dan, > >It was nice to see you at Canby. Here is a note for the EENet on the >resolution as Stan LeQuire cabled it through Western Union to President >Clinton and Vice President Gore. > >Dear EENet Participants, > >The Christian Environmental Council adopted unanimously a resolution >on Climate Change at its meeting on Saturday, October 18, 1997 after >careful deliberation. It comes at a time when the President may well >act to provide strong leadership at the upcoming Summit on Climate >Change in Kyoto, Japan. Support from evangelicals on this may be >particularly significant, and thus also this resolution. > >Please distribute this resolution as you believe to be appropriate. > >For a start on the abundant literature on this topic I recommend that you >consult the internet at the following addresses: > > http://www.usgcrp.gov/ipcc/ for information on the Intergovernmental > Panel on Climate Change > > http://www.dieoff.org/page128.htm for the World Scientists' Call for > Action at the Kyoto Climate Summit > > http://www.dieoff.org/page105.htm for the Economists' Statement on > Climate Change of Feb. 13, 1997 > > >Sincerely, > >Calvin B. DeWitt > >### >___________________________________ > > > CHRISTIAN ENVIRONMENTAL COUNCIL RESOLUTION ON THE POSITION OF THE > UNITED STATES AT THE CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT IN KYOTO > > Whereas Scripture persistently affirms that Christians are to seek > justice for the less powerful of the Earth and to care for the rest of > Creation, and > > Whereas the potential consequences arising from Global Warming > seriously threaten both, and > > Whereas the upcoming third meeting of the Conference of the Parties > (COP-III) to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), to be > held in Kyoto, Japan, December 1-12, 1997, promises to be the most > important meeting to date of the Nations of God's Earth who are > concerned about Global Warming, and > > Whereas decisions made at this meeting could determine for years to > come the human response to the threat of climate change, and > > Whereas reports indicate that the policy options being considered by > the Administration on the position of the United States at Kyoto are > substantially less than what is required to seek justice for the less > powerful and care for the rest of Creation, > > Be it therefore resolved, that we, the Christian Environmental > Council, assembled in Portland, Oregon, October 18, 1997, call upon > you, President Clinton and Vice-President Gore, to exercise strong, > just, and decisive leadership in addressing the challenge of Global > Warming. Specifically, we urge that the Clinton administration > advocate a legally-binding reduction of at least ten percent in > emission of greenhouse gases for all of the industrialized countries > of God's earth by 2010. > > Signed: Calvin B. DeWitt > President > October 18, 1997 > > >_______________________________________________________ > >### > >Contacts: > > Dr. Calvin DeWitt - via Dr. Peter Bakken, 608-255-0950 > Dr. Richard Wright 978-927-2300 ext. 4382 > Rev. Stan LeQuire 610-649-8090 > > >_______________________________________________________ > >Here is an corresponding news release prepared by: > Michael Nyenhuis > Moderator > Strategies Committee > Christian Environmental Council > > > News Release from the: > CHRISTIAN ENVIRONMENTAL COUNCIL > > FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE -- Oct. 20, 1997 > > Contacts: > Dr. Calvin DeWitt - via Dr. Peter Bakken, 608-255-0950 > Dr. Richard Wright 978-927-2300 ext. 4382 > Stan LeQuire 610-649-8090 > > CHRISTIANS URGE CLINTON TO TAKE LEAD AT CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE > > October 20, 1997 - The Christian Environmental Council today urged > President Clinton to take a strong leadership role at the upcoming > international conference on climate change, to be held in Kyoto, > Japan, December 1-12. > > A resolution sent to the White House expressed the Council's desire > that the "Clinton administration advocate a legally-binding reduction > of at least 10 percent in the emission of greenhouse gases for all of > the industrialized countries of God's earth by 2010." > > "The climate of earth is God's gift to life -- it's not ours to defile > or destroy," said Dr. Calvin DeWitt, president of Christian > Environmental Council. "Do we have the courage to tell this to the > world? Do we have the courage to lead?" > > The resolution resulted from the Council's annual meeting this weekend > in Portland, Oregon. Attending were representatives of 41 Christian > groups, including The Christian Society of the Green Cross, Christian > Environmental Association, and the Evangelical Environmental Network. > > The Christian Environmental Council is a gathering of evangelical > leaders concerned with creation care. The Council was instrumental in > the successful defense of the Endangered Species Act in 1996. > > The Council's deliberations on global climate change were guided by six > environmental scientists from a wide array of colleges and > universities. Dr. Richard Wright, author of the textbook Environmental > Science: The Way the World Works, and professor of biology at Gordon > College in Massachusetts expressed the Council's concerns: "Twelve of > the last 17 years are the hottest on record for global temperature. Sea > level is rising at a rate of 3 millimeters a year. Violent storms and > climatic fluctuations like the El Nino have been increasing in recent > years. It seems obvious that the burning of fossil fuels increases the > atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide resulting in major changes > in the climate." > > Concern for the "the less powerful of the Earth" and "the rest of > creation" motivated the resolution. "These changes in the climate will > have their greatest impact on people in the developing world where > environmental degradation is already seriously impacting their way of > life," said Wright. > > The Council emphasized that all of the global climate change scenarios > predict major shifts in rainfall and temperature over mere decades. > "These shifts will impact ecosystems in serious and unpredictable > ways. In a world struggling to feed an expanding population, global > climate change represents the greatest threat to our agricultural > capacity," said Wright. > ### > > The mission of the Christian Environmental Council is to serve the > church and society in all matters concerning the care of creation. The > council provides a forum for discussion of mutual concerns, a > structure to facilitate joint action, and a platform for expression of > common views. > > The Names and Affiliations of CEC's consulting scientists: > Dr. Jeff Greenberg, Wheaton College, Wheaton, IL > Dr. Jeff Schloss, Westmont College, Santa Barbara, CA > Dr. John Wood, Kings University College, Edmunton, Alberta > Dr. Calvin DeWitt, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI > Dr. Ken Peterson, Dort College, Sioux Center, IA > Dr. Richard Wright, Gordon College, Wenham, MA > > ### > > ============================================================ Dr R.C.J. Carling, Home address Senior Editor, Life Sciences 90 Charlton Road Chapman & Hall Shirley 2-6 Boundary Row Southampton, SO15 5EW, UK London SE1 8HN, UK Tel: +44(0)1703-778830 Tel: +44(0)171-865-0066 Fax: +44(0)1703-342838 (but Fax: +44(0)171-410-6907 please call first) www.chapmanhall.com www.tcp.co.uk/~carling bob.carling@chall.co.uk (work) carling@tcp.co.uk (home) ============================================================ 2666. 1997-11-20 17:03:43 ______________________________________________________ date: Thu, 20 Nov 1997 17:03:43 -0500 (EST) from: g025 subject: Staff Christian Fellowship to: "Acton, Professor Edward" , "Aidley, Dr. David" , "Akehurst, James" , "Andrews, Professor David" , "Anstey, Dr. Paddy" , "Aslin, Dr. Chris" , "Baker, Dr. David" , "Barber, The Revd. Garth" , "Breathnach, Mairin" , "Casey, Dr. Jim" , "Chalk, Keith" , "Cutter, Richard" , "Cutting, Heather" , "Dowsing, Dr. Roy" , "Dyer, Alison" , "Easton, John (& Jean)" , "Edwards, Peter" , "Elliott, Dr. Ralph" , "Elliott, Professor John" , "Evans, Dr. Tom" , "Evans, Rob" , "Everest, Dr. Graham" , "Fox, Dr. Jeremy" , "Gilbert, Judith" , "Glauert, Dr. John" , "Gorringe, Peter" , "Grant, Dr. Alistair" , "Gray, John" , "Green, Debbie" , "Hall, Gillian" , "Havers, Janet" , "Haylock, Derek" , "Houssart, Marion" , "Howard, Melanie" , "Howard, Lynne" , "Hulme, Dr. MIke" , "Jones, Dr. Alan" , "Jones, Professor Stuart" , "Kenning, Dr. Marie-M" , "King, Sue" , "Lewis, Dr. Brian" , "Logan, Dr. Oliver" , "Malcolm, Chris" , "Marcantonio, Julia Mary" , "Marsh, Lyn" , "Page, Sue" , "Pedley, Kate" , "Penfold, David" , "Perowne, Naomi" , "Peterson, Steve" , "Pounds, Gabrina" , "Rashid, Steve" , "Rayward Smith, Professor Vic" , "Rose, Martin" , "Russell, Peter" , "Sanderson, Anne (& Michael)" , "Seeley, Sue" , "Summers, Jan" , "Tovey, Dr. K" , "Vaughan, Dr. Helen" , "Vine, Professor Fred" , "Watson, Bridget" , "Williamson, Anne" , "Winkler, Birgit" , "Woodhouse, Lisa" Dear Staff Member, Please excuse this"Round Robin" but it seems the most effective way of contacting everybody. Let me introduce myself, if you do not already know me. I am the new Anglican Chaplain to UEA and I began here at the beginning of this academic year, after 10 years in a parish in West London. One of my hopes at UEA is to be able to help restart the Staff Christian Fellowship which I understand has been lying fallow for a few months. The first step will be to get together a Steering Group to decide what form that Fellowship should take. If you would like to be on that group please let me know and we can arrange a first planning meeting. On another tack it is intended to start a UEA Theological Society to look at various issues as they relate to the university. If you would like to be involved in planning that then please contact me again. And now for some general notices:- 1. You may have seen that I have started a mid-week communion service, a Eucharist, on Thursday lunchtimes from 1.05p.m.. in the Quiet Room at the Chaplaincy. All are very welcome to attend. 2. May I remind you that there is also a Catholic Mass at 1.05p.m. every Wednesday. 3. The University Carol Service will be on Thursday the 4th December at 5.15 in the Main Meeting Room of the Chaplaincy, again everybody will be very welcome and there will be "Mincepies and Mulled Wine" afterwards. 3097. 1997-11-24 15:59:44 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 24 Nov 1997 15:59:44 +0100 from: Christian Pfister subject: Article 16th century /Address of reviewers to: K.Briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Keith I am very glad that you have succeeded to find some time for writing this article. The conclusions are important for two reasons: The tree ring data confirm the long term cooling of summers in C Europe obtained from documentary data and they show that the cooling trend included Scandinavia from where we have no data. For Switzerland I have reinterpreted the (enlarged) evidence and I have obtained new indices that will be included into the volume. (They agree better with your curves than those of 1984/1992). Likewise indices from Germany and the Czech Rep are available. Would it make sense including these data into you figure? You mention the address of Eckstein in your letter, but it is not included (I need also Tel, Fax,. email). Then I have to suggest tghe name of two reviewers. Therefore I need a second one. Thank you again for cooperating Sincerely yours Christian Pfister ................... from: Dr. Christian Pfister, Professor of Economic, Social and Environmental History Group for Regional and Environmental History Dept. of History, University of Bern Unitobler CH-3000 Bern 9, Switzerland (http://ubeclu.unibe.ch/hist/fru) visitors: Lerchenweg 36, 2nd floor, s225 (Bus 12, stop "Mittelstrasse") recent publications and abstracts see: http://ubeclu.unibe.ch/hist/fru e-mail: pfister@hist.unibe.ch phone: +41-31-6318384 (direct,office), +41-31-6318091 (secretary) fax: +41-31-6314866 or 41-31-6314410 Bernhist team: +41-31-6314803: Daniel Brändli, Peter Bär, Beat Brodbeck, Philippe Jung Euro-Climhist: +41-31-6313871: Andreas Dannecker, Urs Dietrich, Euro- Climhist +41-31-6314803: Patrick Beeli, Euro-Climhist 2168. 1997-11-25 17:12:06 ______________________________________________________ cc: hzimmerm@nsf.gov, keith.alverson@pages.unibe.ch date: Tue, 25 Nov 1997 17:12:06 +0100 from: frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch (Frank Oldfield) subject: EXCOMM Meeting and the PAGES Open Science Meeting to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, messerli@giub.unibe.ch, patrick.dedeckker@anu.edu.au, ztguo@mimi.cnc.ac.cn, laurent.labeyrie@cfr.cnrs-gif.fr, lautenschlager@dkrz.d400.de, yugo@geoeco.hokudai.ac.jp, gbpant@tropmet.ernet.in, 141tcp@cosmos.wits.ac.za, jto@paleosun.ngdc.noaa.gov, tfp@unixg.ubc.ca, rbradley@climate1.geo.umass.edu, domraynaud@glaciog.grenet.fr, matti.saarnisto@gsf.fi, r21024@er.uquam.ca, pbonin@lanet.losandes.com.ar Dear colleagues, First a warm welcome to our three new members Anne de Vernal, Pepe Boninsegna and Matti Saarnisto. I look forward to meeting you along with the rest of the PAGES SSC next year. I am sending along with this message, both as simple text below and as an attachment, the notes made at our recent EXCOMM meeting. Please do not hesitate to get in touch if you need more information or have any observations or queries. The EXCOMM took place on either side of a PAGES Leaders Meeting, the first ever. One of the important functions of the meeting over and above the main agenda was to consider the problems posed by the overwhelming response to the call for poster abstracts for the PAGES Open Science Meeting in April 98. This has already generated over 240, with many gaps to be filled and a steady trickle increasing the final number. Even if only 50 percent of those submitting abstracts come to the meeting and only one person per poster (which seems unlikely), those numbers, plus invited speakers, members of other IGBP projects, a growing number of 'non-contributing' intended participants, PAGES SSC members, additional graduate students etc etc would exceed the capacity of the original venue. The invidious and divisive task of rigorously pruning the number of posters for presentation was not welcomed and we (rightly I believe) saw the likelihood of demand far exceeding capacity no matter what strategy we adopted within the constraints of the original venue. We have therefore agreed to move the meeting to Central London - the University Senate House close to University College in Bloomsbury. This new venue gives us a maximum capacity of 500 participants, all the advantages of a central location (as well as the costs alas) and a very much more attractive base for the lectures and poster sessions. It is therefore most important that all PAGES leaders and SSC members now help to ensure that the meeting is fully subscribed. Preliminary details of the speakers and draft programme are given below. I believe it will be a quite superb conference in an excellent setting. The fees proposed are:- Full registration fee: £100 (US$150) Student registration fee: £35 (US$50) These fees will include the volume of abstracts. A day fee will also be arranged. We are in the process of finalising the programme and as soon as this is done, we shall circulate it to all who have expressed an interest in coming. Meanwhile, you may be interested to know the list of invited speakers, all of whom have agreed to speak:- Richard Alley, Zhisheng An, Edouard Bard, Rick Battarbee, Juerg Beer, Ed Boyle, Ray Bradley, Keith Briffa, Paul Colinvaux, Elsa Cortijo, Anne De Vernal, Peter DeMenocal, David Drewry, Mike Gagan, Francoise Gasse, Sandy Harrison, Sylvie Joussaume, Jean Jouzel, Jim Knox, Suki Manabe, Vera Markgraf, Bruno Messerli, Jonathan Overpeck, Tom Pedersen, Colin Prentice, Dominique Raynaud, David Rind, Thomas Stocker, Lonnie Thompson and Greg Zielinski. Those of you who wish to attend but are not presenting one of the invited lectures or offering a poster may wish to fill in the form below and return it by e-mail if at all possible. PLEASE DO COME IF AT ALL POSSIBLE AND STRONGLY ENCOURAGE COLLEAGUES AND RESEARCH ASSOCIATES TO DO SO TOO. ----------------------------------- Name............ Institution and address .................. Please delete all but one of the following statements:- 1. I plan to come to the Meeting and would prefer accommodation + meal costs within the range £300 - £350; £350 - £400; £400 - 450 (please delete all but one of these price ranges). 2. My attendance at the Meeting depends on securing external financial support and at present, I regard my participation as ...highly likely fairly likely rather unlikely (PLEASE DELETE ALL BUT ONE OF THE ABOVE) 3. My attendance at the Meeting depends on securing finanical support through PAGES directly....YES/NO. (please delete one). 4. If you have answered 'YES' to question 3, please state the likely minimum financial support you will need from PAGES in order to make your attendance possible: US$.... PLEASE NOTE:- In answering questions 2 to 4, please bear in mind that PAGES is unlikely to be able to offer financial support to participants from 'developed' countries. We are seeking sponsorship for the meeting from a wide range of sources and we hope this will allow us to offer support to selected participants from developing countries. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'll try to send a further message soon with more news from the PAGES Office. meanwhile, I would draw your attention especially to the section in the EXCOMM notes referring to the PAGES SSC Meeting. Please note these dates; I hope you will all be able to attend. With very best wishes, Frank ----------------------------------------------- Meeting of the PAGES Executive Committee Hilterfingen - 7 & 10 Nov. 1997 (NB. the Meeting took place in two halves, either side of the first PAGES Leaders Meeting). NOTES and immediate sequels 1. Web Site. Access is still patchy and unpredictable. As soon as possible Keith will explore the reasons for the problem and will also liaise with those responsible for the web sites in Boulder and Médias-France, Toulouse, in order to arrange for the Bern-maintained site to be mirrored in both places. Action: KA 2. Newsletter. As soon as item 1 has been addressed, it will be necessary to make a prominent announcement on page 1 of the next newsletter. Publication and availability of the Implementation Plan should also be announced in the newsletter. Action: CJ The upcoming newsletter should include: - a synopsis/executive summary of the ARTS and ITASE workshop reports, as well as the promised article by Ray Bradley on the current El Niño within the context of PAGES. Action: FO/CJ Ray Bradley 3. Leaders Meeting. A report on the meeting and some of the highlights should form part of the next PAGES newsletter as well as of the PAGES entry to the IGBP newsletter to be prepared for the deadline of 6.12.97. The desirability of obtaining wide approval for any reports compiled after the meeting was recognized. Action: FO Several issues were raised before the leaders meeting and identified for discussion by EXCOMM after the meeting. Not all were fully resolved. The majority view at the leaders meeting was that a similar event would be useful and desirable in 2 - 3 years time (and this was presumably endorsed by EXCOMM). It was suggested that contributions to any future leaders meeting should be more strongly science-driven and should also focus more strongly on linkages and on problems. It was also recommended that all PAGES SSC members should be invited to attend the next leaders meeting; indeed a leaders meeting and SSC could be linked together. 4. Open Science Meeting. Discussion of this item evolved during both of the EXCOMM sessions as well as during the leaders meeting itself. The response to the call for poster abstracts has already generated over 240 submissions. This number, or any generally acceptable reduction of it on the basis of scientific or financial criteria, would generate a potential audience which, alongside invited speakers, guests, student assistants, members of other IGBP Project Elements etc., would be significantly in excess of the maximum capacity of both the lecture theatre and the dining facilities at Royal Holloway. The problem is compounded by the fact that many essential PAGES Activities are still under-represented in, or entirely absent from the list of poster abstracts. Near unanimous opinion amongst the leaders was that more abstracts should be solicited in these areas. Moreover, the strong feeling of EXCOMM was that the capacity of the banquet hall was too small for the number of people likley to want to attend. These issues were of great concern not only to EXCOMM but also to the PAGES leaders, who debated the problems at length. In view of the concerns expressed, an alternative venue within central London is being sought. Action: FO Anson Mackay (UCL) Provisional calculations suggested that a full fee of approximately $200 with a reduction to $100 for students would be sufficient to cover the general costs associated with the conference. This will need to be reconsidered if a change of venue imposes extra costs. Invited speakers were to be asked to submit abstracts with a likely deadline of 1.3.98, subject to this date providing sufficient time for printing the abstract volume for distribution at the meeting. The abstract volume would contain the synopses of invited lectures followed by poster abstracts in alphabetical order. It was decided that the invited lecture chapters would be peer reviewed. Actions related to the request for sponsorship, invitations to publishers and press, and the composition and organization of the panel discussion on the final afternoon of the meeting were discussed at length. EXCOMM made suggestions as to the membership of the panel but left final coordination of this to the University College team in consultation with FO. Actions: FO/CJ to obtain estimates of the cost of printing an Abstract Volume and to find out how long such a volume would take to produce Ray Bradley to contact all invited speakers to prepare abstracts to the agreed deadline and to remind them of the guidelines, the overall shape of the Meeting and sequence of themes. FO to filter out the few Abstracts that are clearly inappropriate for the PAGES Meeting. Rick Battarbee's team and FO to coordinate Panel invitations. !!!(NB - I would propose to add notes on the venue and cost changes made after the EXCOMM)!!! 5. Proposed Cambridge University Press (CUP) book. EXCOMM recommended that all invited speakers should contribute to this within a suggested limit of 15 pages each, including figures etc. This would lead to a book of 450 to 500 pages; higher than the ideal size recommended by CUP, but less than the published GCTE volume. It was decided that in view of the carefully coordinated nature of the proposed volume, any publisher should be required to accept the format proposed; should CUP refuse to do this, an alternative publisher would be sought. The thrust of the volume would be strongly oriented towards to IPCC with the timing linked as closely as possible to the IPCC process. It is intended that preprints of chapters be available in time to contribute directly to IPCC 2000, and be sent directly to the scientists drafting relevant parts of the IPCC report. Action: Ray Bradley, Jonathan Overpeck and FO to act as initial editorial board and as negotiators with CUP and other publishers if necessary. 6. Workshop proposals and modifications to existing plans. It was noted that - * the PICE Workshop (Sept. 1998 in China) would require more than the $3k agreeed at the last PAGES SSC. * A PAGES/CLIVAR Workshop is now proposed for late 1998 to be held on Santorini. This will probably place significant demands on PAGES funds for 1998/9. * A joint ITASE/ARTS workshop is being considered for 1999. * A proposal for PAGES to part-fund a workshop on fossil records of fish-otoliths was discussed. It was proposed that modest PAGES finanical support might be considered, provided GLOBEC strongly endorses the proposal and were prepared to co-fund. 9. The PAGES-GAIM-IGAC joint initiative/ 'Paleogas Grand Challenge'. So far, GAIM has taken most of the initiative in this area and a draft GAIM document was circulated which set out a possible agenda within this area. It proposes a strong emphasis on releveant aspect of PAGES science and the key requirement from now on is that PAGES be seen to be a full partner in, and co-sponsor of the initiative. Action: KA to liaise closely with Gaim in order to ensure full PAGES involvement from now on. 10. Proposed PAGES 'synthesis' document. Communications from IGBP stress the desirability of having a document perhaps similar to the recently published 'GCTE Synthesis' for each of the IGBP Project Elements that have advanced their science sufficiently. A deadline for the availability of such a document would be the next IGBP Congress in 1999. In the case of PAGES, it was proposed that such a document should be based on, and developed from, synopses of the peer-reviewed chapters contributed by speakers invited to the Open Science Meeting. In this way, the synthesis document would be based on state-of-the-art research of the highest quality available from the PAGES community. Action: Ray Bradley to report this to IGBP in connection with the upcoming discussion of this theme in Boulder, Feb.1998. 11. PEP III. There was much discussion of the problems faced by Françoise Gasse as coordinator of PEP III. These arise, in large part, from the refusal of EEC and national research councils in Europe to provide funding for the essential administrative and post-doctoral support required to launch, promote and coordinate the many initiatives required. It was decided that the leadership and coordination of PEP III needs to be shared and that the urgency of the problems posed by PEP III requires a one time input of PAGES funds on the clear understanding that these are to be used, along with the efforts of a broader group of people involved in PEP III, to secure the future of the Activity from the end of 1998 onwards: * Up to $20k will be made available during 1998. This will be administered by Rick Battarbee (University College London) who proposes to share it equally between the predominantly Time-stream I initiatives to be coordinated by his group and the predominantly Time-stream II activities to be coordinated by Françoise from her new base in Aix-en-Provence. Before any funds are released, Rick and Françoise will present a proposal detailing their plans for approval by EXCOMM. * Responsibility for PEP III coordination should be clearly demonstrated to be international within the European context in the hope that this will increase both national and international funding opportunities. * The European countries/groups most closely involved will be the UK (Battarbee et al.), France (Gasse et al.), Germany, through both the ongoing Paleomonsoon programme of Stefan Kroepelin (and his links to the ACACIA programme) and the Negendank-led ELDP programme, and Switzerland, through initiatives taken from the PAGES IPO. * At the appropriate time during 1998, approaches will be made to both national and international groups (eg. ESF) for financial support. * Rick Battarbee will work with Françoise Gasse and FO to produce a promotional document for PEP III consistent with the science goals already stated, but reshaping them and linking them explicitly to upcoming funding opportunies and research agendas within the EEC and European National Research Councils. This document should be ready, at least in draft form, for presentation and discussion at SAC V in Nairobi, September 1998. 12. Human impact on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the 'Freshwater' theme within IGBP. A final decision as to whether PAGES should incorporate an 'Activity' on 'Human Impact on freshwater ecosystems' in Focus III, alongside related themes, will be taken at the next SSC. The venue will provide a good location for exploring this theme. Meanwhile, the leaders of actual and potential Focus III Activities should liaise in order to optimize their research plans without spreading their effort too thinly. This observation also applies to initiatives centred around Human Impact on Terrestrial Ecosystems. In this case, further initiatives by PAGES should develop above all in response to requests from other IGBP Projects, such as GCTE, BAHC and LUCC, for PAGES expertise, information and collaboration. Action: FO to liaise with Rick Battarbee and Bob Wasson in order to develop the most effective way of addressing the inter-related themes within Focus III. Rick to make a presentation on the 'Aquatic Ecosystem' theme at the next SSC in Pallanza. FO to attend the first meeting (late Nov. '97) of the group charged with producing a Science Plan for a Fresh water 'inter-project' within IGBP: 13 Next SSC and associated Workshop. In planning for the next SSC, to be held in Pallanza, N Italy, June 20 & 21, 1998, SSC may wish to consider, inter alia, the following themes: * Possible reductions and rationalizations within the PAGES spread of Foci and Activities. For example: - there was thought to be scope for bringing both NAD and ICAPP under the general remit of CAPE, - Activities dealing with different forcing mechanisms might usefully be linked within a single framework, - Focus III may be reconfigured in light of the initiatives and discussions linked to 1 and 2 above, - PMAP might realistically be subsumed within the Data Activity and regarded as one of the ways in which this Activity finds expression * The future of those apsects of PAGES most closely linked to IGBP Projects such as GCTE, LUCC and BAHC, that deal more directly with human impact and with human/climate relations. For this purpose, it was thought useful to consider inviting representatives from the relevant IGBP Projects to the meeting. The next SSC should also consider the procedures to be used for appointing and evaluating the next Executive Director; also issues of timing related to this and to the need to ensure overlap and continuity at a stage when the membership of SSC was due to undergo a major change, (including appointment of a new Chair). FO stated that, if this were consistent with the wishes of SSC, he would hope to continue in Bern until Fall 1999, with the possibility of any extension beyond that left as an open question at present. It was agreed that the order of rotation, with separation of at least six months, would be first Ray Bradley, then Frank Oldfield, and finally Bruno Messerli. It was agreed that the Frank's position should be advertised well ahead of time as an open competition. The applicants will be required to submit a one page statement of goals. Several senior scientists have already expressed potential interest in the position. It was decided that clear rules and guidlines for the mechanism for hiring a new director and executive director should be drawn up for approval at the next SSC meeting in Palanza. Action: SSC members to react to these ideas and to suggest other items for the June agenda. Ray Bradley to circulate the list of SSC resignations/ replacements/renewals due on 31.12.98. It was proposed that the PEP III Symposium/Workshop to be held in Milan should, if possible, take place on Monday June 22, ie. after the SSC Meeting. In view of his growing involvement in PEP III, it was hoped that Rick Battarbee would have some involvement in the planning of the programme, in association with Françoise Gasse and Dr. Orombelli, the host. The Symposium should be regarded as an essential commitment for all SSC members attending the Pallanza meeting. Action: Gasse, Battarbee and Orombelli to plan the programme in consultation with FO. 14. Proposed SSC Meeting in India, Jan. 1999. * It was recognized that in order to mobilize the Indian PAGES community and make maximum use of the venue as a forum for interaction betwen SSC and the research community in India, firm plans should be made soon. Action: Ray Bradley to contact Govind Pant. APPENDIX - PAGES OPEN MTG SCHEDULE Here is an update on the outline circulated by Ray just before the list of invited speakers had been finalised. We had planned 25 minute talks, plus 15 for discussions, as follows: A. 8.45-9.25 B. 9.25-10.05 C. 10.05-10.45 COFFEE D. 11.15-11.55 E. 11.55-12.35 LUNCH F. 2.00-2.40 G. 2.40-3.20 H. 3.20-4.00 4.00-6.00 POSTER SESSIONS ....so 8 talks per day, Monday-Thursday noon = 29 talks in all. Thursday pm will be for the "policy" discussion session. Currently, we have 29 speakers for the main sessions, plus 1 (David Drewry) who is a policy type for the PANEL. Overpeck and Boyle have not yet been alloted a place in the sequence. MONDAY Bradley Briffa Gagan Thompson Markgraf An Gasse Knox TUESDAY Alley Cortijo Raynaud Beer Zielinski Stocker Manabe Bard WEDNESDAY De Vernal Joussaume Harrison Jouzel Rind Prentice Colinvaux Pedersen THURSDAY Battarbee DeMenocal Messerli THURSDAY PM Panel Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\EXCOMM_Notes_-_18.11__.doc" ____________________________________________ Frank Oldfield Executive Director PAGES IPO Barenplatz 2 CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland e-mail: frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch *** NOTE CHANGE *** Phone: +41 31 312 3133; Fax: +41 31 312 3168 http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html 5120. 1997-11-28 08:01:00 ______________________________________________________ cc: n.nicholls@bom.gov.au date: Fri, 28 Nov 1997 08:01:00 +1000 from: Neville Nicholls subject: Re: TV Stars!! to: ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz (Jim Salinger) Hi Guys, I haven't seen you on TV, but you are also the lead item on Australian ABC radio news and current affairs this morning. Well done (and nicely timed). Phil, I look forward to some interesting reactions from our mutual friend John Daly on this! Regards, Papa Nino > Date: Fri, 28 Nov 1997 07:11:46 +1300 > To: ckfolland@meto.gov.uk, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > From: j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz (Jim Salinger) > Subject: TV Stars!! > Cc: n.nicholls@bom.gov.au, m.manning@niwa.cri.nz > Dear Chris, Phil and Mike > > I see you are now competing with Neville, except none of you were labelled > the 'father of global warming'. > > Well done - the NZ media is running hot, and it was nice to see you all on > BBC World at 6 am this morning, as the lead story "British Scientists are > about to announce that 1997 is on course to be the warmest year on record" > and that "a change in climate is happening". I liked Chris showing curves > of warming in the South Pacific, and Mike you looked very much like the > Pope making very authoritive pronouncements! > > We have re- released the material this morning, and it is now the No 1 item > on Radio New Zealand news. This is very refreshing after all the recycled > bunkem the skeptics have been putting out this week before Kyoto, and I am > sure our Minister for the Environment, Simon Upton will like it, as he was > getting frustrated at the industry lobbey, and the pro-industry press in > NZ. > > Neville probably hasn't told you, but Australia seems to be recording > regularly 45 C somewhere in the continent - these must be near records for > the time of year. > > Must away, but well done. > > Antipodean Jim > > ******************************************************************* > Dr Jim Salinger Tel: (+64 9) 375 2090 (office reception) > NIWA, Tel: (+64 9) 375 2053 (direct dial) > 269 Khyber Pass Road Fax: (+64 9) 375 2051 > Newmarket, Auckland E-mail: j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz > > Postal Address: P. O. Box 109 - 695 > Newmarket > Auckland, New Zealand > > ******************************************************************* > > > > Neville Nicholls Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Postal address: BMRC, PO Box 1289K, Melbourne 3001, AUSTRALIA Phone: 61 3 9669 4407 Fax: 61 3 9669 4660 Street address: BMRC, Floor 13, 150 Lonsdale Street, Melbourne 3000, AUSTRALIA Email: N.Nicholls@bom.gov.au Web page: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/mrlr/nnn/nnn.htm 2040. 1997-12-01 18:23:59 ______________________________________________________ date: Mon, 1 Dec 1997 18:23:59 SAST-2 from: "O'Riordan, T, Prof" subject: That letter to: Mike Hulme From: Mail Delivery System To: ORIORDAN@enviro.uct.ac.za Subject: Mail delivery failed: returning message to sender Date: Mon, 1 Dec 1997 18:09:00 +0200 This message was created automatically by mail delivery software. A message that you sent could not be delivered to all of its recipients. The following address(es) failed: M.Hulme@ueaa.ac.uk: unknown mail domain ------ This is a copy of the message, including all the headers. ------ Return-path: Received: from mort by mail2.uct.ac.za with local (Exim 1.70 #3) id 0xcYP4-0002FG-00; Mon, 1 Dec 1997 18:08:58 +0200 Received: by mail2.uct.ac.za (Mort 2.22) id 531 from ORIORDAN@ENVIRO; Mon Dec 1 18:08:58 1997 From: "O'Riordan, T, Prof" Organization: UCT To: Mike Hulme Date: Mon, 1 Dec 1997 17:50:03 SAST-2 Subject: Thaa letter Priority: normal X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Windows (v2.23) Message-Id: Dear Mike, Please let mre see tthe letter, though I doubt if Environment will publish as they are in hot water over the lettter that Phil Jones wrote regarding the credentials of Micheals.Indeed there may even be litigation! But I would like to see it for the record. Cheers, Tim 2518. 1997-12-02 13:08:15 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 02 Dec 1997 13:08:15 +0000 from: Tim Mitchell subject: General Accident to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk An insurance company want the email list!!! Tim >Date: Tue, 2 Dec 1997 20:54:48 +0000 >From: David Crichton >Reply-To: davidc@genacc.com >Organization: General Accident plc Registered in Scotland No 2116 >To: t.mitchell@uea.ac.uk >Subject: Statement of European Climate Scientists > >Dear Tim, > >I'm sorry to trouble you, but I wonder if it would be possible to have a >list of the signatories to the above? I'd like to pass it on to Dr >Andrew Dlugolecki, a member of IPCC, and a senior manager with General >Accident. Andrew is currently in Japan, speaking at a conference of >insurers concerned about the implications of climate change, and he will >be attending the later stages of the Kyoto Conference on behalf of the >UNEP Insurance Initiative. >For more details of the UNEP Insurance and Banking Initiatives, see >http://www.unep.ch/finance.html > >There's no rush, I know this will be a busy time for you. If you are >planning a report on the statement and the outcome, I'd be very >interested in seeing that too. > >Regards, > >David Crichton > V i s i t m y /// \\\ W E B S I T E ! ! ( 0 0 ) __________________________oOO (_) OOo_____________________ Tim Mitchell Climatic Research Unit post: CRU, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK email: t.mitchell@uea.ac.uk web: http://www.uea.ac.uk/~f709762 phone: 01603 593762 fax: 01603 507784 ____________________________________________________________ 1825. 1997-12-06 17:03:12 ______________________________________________________ cc: gruebler@uea.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk date: Sat, 06 Dec 1997 17:03:12 +0100 from: Nebojsa NAKICENOVIC subject: Sulphate aerosol emissions to: Tim Carter Dear Tim, We are now working on new emissions scenarios, as Mike told you. They are not complete yet, the first pre-view should be available by April and final versions in early 1999. Arnulf is working of the literature assessment of sulfate aerosol emissions. He will forward you a copy of his most recent draft that we will be using to determine alternative sulfur emissions to go with new scenarios. As you will see, our current view is that older scenarios over-estimated sulfur emissions. They are going to be lower because of the need to protect against acidification, because of technological change in the energy system and because of the shift away from coal-intensive energy systems. Best regards, Naki >X-Sender: carter@popper.fmi.fi >Date: Fri, 05 Dec 1997 15:47:54 +0200 >To: naki@iiasa.ac.at >From: Tim Carter >Subject: Sulphate aerosol emissions > >Servus Naki, > >Just a quick enquiry about sulphate emissions. Mike Hulme reported to our >IPCC Task Group on Climate Scenarios in London in October some discussions >he had with you and others about the new IPCC emissions scenarios >(storylines, I believe they may be called). > >Although I realise that these are not available yet, one feature that Mike >reported was a considerable downward revision (relative to IS92a) of the >sulphate aerosol scenarios under all foreseeable futures. Since IS92a, or >something like it, was used to create the direct sulphate aerosol scenario >employed in several recent (1995-) coupled GCM runs, I would like to ask >what the latest opinion is about the concentrations assumed for 2050, >especially over east Asia. Mike suggested that the concentrations assumed in >the model runs were unrealistically high, to the extent of presenting a >potential toxic hazard. > >Do you know of any published article(s) that discusses this apparent >overestimation of the sulphate aerosol forcing? Unpublished will do, if it >is authoritative. > >Any thoughts would be much appreciated. > >Best regards to you and to all friends at IIASA. > >Tim > > >**************************************************** >Dr. Timothy Carter >Affiliation: Agricultural Research Centre of Finland >Postal address: c/o Finnish Meteorological Institute >Box 503, FIN-00101 Helsinki, FINLAND > >Tel: +358-9-1929-4125 >Fax: +358-9-1929-4129 >Email: tim.carter@fmi.fi >**************************************************** > > > 2958. 1997-12-15 14:14:53 ______________________________________________________ date: 15 Dec 1997 14:14:53 -0700 from: Tom Wigley subject: MAGICC CH4 results to: Mike Hulme , Sarah Raper Dear Mike and Sarah, I have revised some of the code in MAGICC to improve the CH4 results. There were two glitches. The first was in the initialization of ECH4 to give a balanced 1990 budget. By a fluke, this didn't affect any results because of the specific choice of parameters I had. The second was in the calculated CH4 concentrations. I had tuned the model to match an early set of IPCC results, and these are all somewhat lower than the published values. This required tedious trial and error retuning of the methane model parameters, which I have now done. The new parameters are better, because a single set works for all IS92 scenarios---previously different parameters were required for A,B,E,F versus C,D. With regard to the distributed code, we have to make a choice whether to stick to the old code (which agrees with Ch. 6, but not Ch. 2) or the new code (which agrees with Ch.2). I'm inclined to go with Ch. 2 consistency and the new code. What do you think? I have more things to clean up in MAGICC, so I won't send the new code (for MAG.FOR) until I've done these. In the meantime, here are the header notes from the new code to fill in some details. Cheers, Tom C MAG.FOR C C Revision history: C C 971214 * METHANE PARAMS CHANGED TO GIVE BETTER SIMULATIONS OF IPCC C SAR RESULTS AS PER TABLE 2.5a IN SAR. 1990 TAU SET TO 9.1: C PREVIOUSLY 9.08. IF DELTAU IS SET AT +/- 0.8 (CF. IPCC C RANGE IS +/- 1.8), WHICH MAKES HIGH TAU = 9.9, AND C ITAUMETH IS SET AT 3 (WHICH GIVES UPPER BOUND CONCS FOR C THE ORIGINAL OSBORN & WIGLEY MODEL) THEN OUTPUT AGREES C EXTREMELY WELL PRATHER'S IPCC RESULTS. THIS IMPLIES THAT C PRATHER'S MODEL MUST HAVE A HIGH TAU AND/OR A TAU C SENSITIVITY THAT DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL C OSBORN & WIGLEY VALUE. C C COMPARISON OF PRATHER IPCC (CH.2) AND CURRENT MODEL (IPCC C VALUES HAVE 17ppbv ADDED BECAUSE THE IPCC VALUE IN 1990 C IS 17ppbv BELOW THE VALUE USED HERE - THIS MAKES THE C COMPARISON HERE MORE TRUE TO A FORCING COMPARISON). C C RESULTS BELOW ARE IN ORDER : OLD VERSION (I.E., NUMBER C USED IN CH.6 OF SAR); NEW VERSION; IPCC (CH.2). NOTE THAT C THE MAIN REASON WHY THE CH.6 VALUES ARE SO DIFFERENT FROM C THE IPCC CH.2 VALUES IS THAT THE PRESENT MODEL WAS TUNED C TO AN EARLY VERSION OF PRATHER'S RESULTS. C C SCENARIO 2050 CONCS 2100 CONCS C IS92A,B 2764 2833 2810 3467 3611 3633 C IS92C 2148 2252 2241 1997 2088 2086 C IS92D 2157 2259 2247 2056 2161 2163 C IS92E 2972 3056 3031 4109 4301 4308 C IS92F 2996 3081 3055 4492 4711 4686 C CH.6 NEW CH.2 CH.6 NEW CH.2 C C C THE TABLE BELOW COMPARES NEW WITH OLD (IPCC CH.6) T & MSL C CHANGES OVER 1990-2100. C C SCENARIO SIMULATION OLD DT NEW DT OLD DMSL NEW DMSL C IS92C LOW 0.8622 0.8747 12.63 12.86 C IS92A MID 2.0308 3.0504 48.94 49.28 C IS92E HIGH 3.5260 3.5601 94.75 95.21 C C 971213 * ERROR IN CORRECTING INPUT METHANE EMISSIONS FOR 1990 C IMBALANCE CORRECTED (SUBSTANTIAL REVISION). THIS WAS FIRST C CORRECTED IN OPT.FOR ON 961024. IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE C TO THE OUTPUT: OUTPUT IS ONLY AFFECTED FOR NON-ZERO DELTAU. C IN PREVIOUS VERSION OF THE CODE, DELTAU WAS SET TO ZERO. C 971123 * TWO ERRORS FOUND C (1) S90IND=0.0 INPUT CAUSES CRASH. CORRECTED TEMPORARILY C BY RESETTING S90IND=-0.0001 C (2) EQUIVCO2 MISCALCULATED (USED IF NOUT=4 ONLY). C CODE CORRECTED. TABLE 1: FOSSIL CO2 EMISSIONS DATA USED IN CARBON CYCLE CALCULATIONS. MODIFIED IS92a KYOTO EXTENDED KYOTO YEAR ANNEX I NON-I BUNKER GLOBAL ANNEX I GLOBAL ANNEX I GLOBAL 1990 3.907 2.088 0.114 6.109 3.907 6.109 3.907 6.109 1991 3.791 2.270 0.117 6.178 3.791 6.178 3.791 6.178 1992 3.708 2.240 0.136 6.084 3.708 6.084 3.708 6.084 1993 3.631 2.293 0.129 6.053 3.631 6.053 3.631 6.053 1994 3.676 2.484 0.132 6.292 3.676 6.292 3.676 6.292 1995 3.801 2.567 0.138 6.506 3.801 6.506 3.801 6.506 1996 3.869 2.662 0.138 6.669 3.869 6.669 3.869 6.669 1997 3.920 2.758 0.138 6.816 3.920 6.816 3.920 6.816 1998 3.971 2.854 0.138 6.963 3.971 6.963 3.971 6.963 1999 4.022 2.950 0.138 7.110 4.022 7.110 4.022 7.110 2000 4.073 3.046 0.138 7.257 4.073 7.257 4.073 7.257 2001 4.110 3.177 0.138 7.425 4.029 7.344 4.029 7.344 2002 4.147 3.308 0.138 7.593 3.985 7.431 3.985 7.431 2003 4.183 3.440 0.138 7.761 3.941 7.519 3.941 7.519 2004 4.220 3.571 0.138 7.929 3.897 7.606 3.897 7.606 2005 4.257 3.702 0.138 8.097 3.853 7.693 3.853 7.693 2006 4.294 3.814 0.138 8.246 3.810 7.762 3.810 7.762 2007 4.331 3.924 0.138 8.393 3.766 7.828 3.766 7.828 2008 4.367 4.036 0.138 8.541 3.722 7.896 3.722 7.896 2009 4.404 4.146 0.138 8.688 3.678 7.962 3.678 7.962 2010 4.441 4.258 0.138 8.837 3.634 8.030 3.634 8.030 2011 4.478 4.370 0.138 8.986 3.634 8.142 3.598 8.106 2012 4.515 4.480 0.138 9.133 3.634 8.252 3.562 8.180 2013 4.551 4.592 0.138 9.281 3.634 8.364 3.526 8.256 2014 4.588 4.702 0.138 9.428 3.634 8.474 3.491 8.331 2015 4.625 4.814 0.138 9.577 3.634 8.586 3.456 8.408 2016 4.662 4.945 0.138 9.745 3.634 8.717 3.421 8.504 2017 4.699 5.077 0.138 9.914 3.634 8.849 3.387 8.602 2018 4.735 5.207 0.138 10.080 3.634 8.979 3.353 8.698 2019 4.772 5.339 0.138 10.249 3.634 9.111 3.320 8.797 2020 4.809 5.470 0.138 10.417 3.634 9.242 3.287 8.895 2021 4.846 5.601 0.138 10.585 3.634 9.373 3.254 8.993 2022 4.883 5.733 0.138 10.754 3.634 9.505 3.221 9.092 2023 4.919 5.863 0.138 10.920 3.634 9.635 3.189 9.190 2024 4.956 5.995 0.138 11.089 3.634 9.767 3.157 9.290 2025 4.993 6.126 0.138 11.257 3.634 9.898 3.125 9.389 2026 4.993 6.230 0.138 11.361 3.634 10.002 3.094 9.462 2027 4.993 6.334 0.138 11.465 3.634 10.106 3.063 9.535 2028 4.993 6.438 0.138 11.569 3.634 10.210 3.033 9.609 2029 4.993 6.542 0.138 11.673 3.634 10.314 3.002 9.682 2030 4.993 6.646 0.138 11.777 3.634 10.418 2.972 9.756 2031 4.993 6.750 0.138 11.881 3.634 10.522 2.943 9.831 2032 4.993 6.854 0.138 11.985 3.634 10.626 2.913 9.905 2033 4.993 6.958 0.138 12.089 3.634 10.730 2.884 9.980 2034 4.993 7.062 0.138 12.193 3.634 10.834 2.855 10.055 2035 4.993 7.166 0.138 12.297 3.634 10.938 2.827 10.131 2036 4.993 7.270 0.138 12.401 3.634 11.042 2.798 10.206 2037 4.993 7.374 0.138 12.505 3.634 11.146 2.770 10.282 2038 4.993 7.478 0.138 12.609 3.634 11.250 2.743 10.359 2039 4.993 7.582 0.138 12.713 3.634 11.354 2.715 10.435 2040 4.993 7.686 0.138 12.817 3.634 11.458 2.688 10.512 2041 4.993 7.790 0.138 12.921 3.634 11.562 2.661 10.589 2042 4.993 7.894 0.138 13.025 3.634 11.666 2.635 10.667 2043 4.993 7.998 0.138 13.129 3.634 11.770 2.608 10.744 2044 4.993 8.102 0.138 13.233 3.634 11.874 2.582 10.822 2045 4.993 8.206 0.138 13.337 3.634 11.978 2.556 10.900 2046 4.993 8.310 0.138 13.441 3.634 12.082 2.531 10.979 2047 4.993 8.414 0.138 13.545 3.634 12.186 2.505 11.057 2048 4.993 8.518 0.138 13.649 3.634 12.290 2.480 11.136 2049 4.993 8.622 0.138 13.753 3.634 12.394 2.456 11.216 2050 4.993 8.726 0.138 13.857 3.634 12.498 2.431 11.295 2051 5.011 8.806 0.138 13.955 3.634 12.578 2.407 11.351 2052 5.028 8.886 0.138 14.052 3.634 12.658 2.383 11.407 2053 5.046 8.968 0.138 14.152 3.634 12.740 2.359 11.465 2054 5.063 9.048 0.138 14.249 3.634 12.820 2.335 11.521 2055 5.081 9.128 0.138 14.347 3.634 12.900 2.312 11.578 2056 5.099 9.208 0.138 14.445 3.634 12.980 2.289 11.635 2057 5.116 9.289 0.138 14.543 3.634 13.061 2.266 11.693 2058 5.134 9.369 0.138 14.641 3.634 13.141 2.243 11.750 2059 5.151 9.450 0.138 14.739 3.634 13.222 2.221 11.809 2060 5.169 9.530 0.138 14.837 3.634 13.302 2.199 11.867 2061 5.187 9.610 0.138 14.935 3.634 13.382 2.177 11.925 2062 5.204 9.691 0.138 15.033 3.634 13.463 2.155 11.984 2063 5.222 9.771 0.138 15.131 3.634 13.543 2.133 12.042 2064 5.239 9.852 0.138 15.229 3.634 13.624 2.112 12.102 2065 5.257 9.932 0.138 15.327 3.634 13.704 2.091 12.161 2066 5.275 10.012 0.138 15.425 3.634 13.784 2.070 12.220 2067 5.292 10.093 0.138 15.523 3.634 13.865 2.049 12.280 2068 5.310 10.173 0.138 15.621 3.634 13.945 2.029 12.340 2069 5.327 10.254 0.138 15.719 3.634 14.026 2.008 12.400 2070 5.345 10.334 0.138 15.817 3.634 14.106 1.988 12.460 2071 5.363 10.415 0.138 15.916 3.634 14.187 1.968 12.521 2072 5.380 10.495 0.138 16.013 3.634 14.267 1.949 12.582 2073 5.398 10.575 0.138 16.111 3.634 14.347 1.929 12.642 2074 5.415 10.655 0.138 16.208 3.634 14.427 1.910 12.703 2075 5.433 10.736 0.138 16.307 3.634 14.508 1.891 12.765 2076 5.451 10.888 0.138 16.477 3.634 14.660 1.872 12.898 2077 5.468 11.040 0.138 16.646 3.634 14.812 1.853 13.031 2078 5.486 11.194 0.138 16.818 3.634 14.966 1.835 13.167 2079 5.503 11.346 0.138 16.987 3.634 15.118 1.816 13.300 2080 5.521 11.498 0.138 17.157 3.634 15.270 1.798 13.434 2081 5.539 11.650 0.138 17.327 3.634 15.422 1.780 13.568 2082 5.556 11.803 0.138 17.497 3.634 15.575 1.762 13.703 2083 5.574 11.955 0.138 17.667 3.634 15.727 1.745 13.838 2084 5.591 12.108 0.138 17.837 3.634 15.880 1.727 13.973 2085 5.609 12.260 0.138 18.007 3.634 16.032 1.710 14.108 2086 5.627 12.412 0.138 18.177 3.634 16.184 1.693 14.243 2087 5.644 12.565 0.138 18.347 3.634 16.337 1.676 14.379 2088 5.662 12.717 0.138 18.517 3.634 16.489 1.659 14.514 2089 5.679 12.870 0.138 18.687 3.634 16.642 1.643 14.651 2090 5.697 13.022 0.138 18.857 3.634 16.794 1.626 14.786 2091 5.715 13.174 0.138 19.027 3.634 16.946 1.610 14.922 2092 5.732 13.327 0.138 19.197 3.634 17.099 1.594 15.059 2093 5.750 13.479 0.138 19.367 3.634 17.251 1.578 15.195 2094 5.767 13.632 0.138 19.537 3.634 17.404 1.562 15.332 2095 5.785 13.784 0.138 19.707 3.634 17.556 1.547 15.469 2096 5.803 13.937 0.138 19.878 3.634 17.709 1.531 15.606 2097 5.820 14.089 0.138 20.047 3.634 17.861 1.516 15.743 2098 5.838 14.241 0.138 20.217 3.634 18.013 1.501 15.880 2099 5.855 14.393 0.138 20.386 3.634 18.165 1.486 16.017 2100 5.873 14.546 0.138 20.557 3.634 18.318 1.471 16.155 784. 1997-12-16 12:05:50 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 16 Dec 1997 12:05:50 +0000 from: Mike Hulme subject: January meeting to: acacia_conf To Acacia colleagues, 1. Who are the users? The key target group should really be those people at EU, national, regional or local level who are charged with long-term planning decisions or environmental legislation. Richard mentions coastal and water managers - these functions in most countries are usually split between many different agencies which causes problems. Local authorities, especially those in metropolitan areas, should also be seen as a key target group. As far as influencing Framework V is concerned, we have missed the boat, so additional research managers will need to be targeted. By the way, I'm not convinced by Jan Goudrian's notion of targeting science journalists. There are some really dumb journalists around and although the idea is good to influence and improve the quality of public debate in this area, in the end journalists are about getting or creating a good story and not about the critical process of scientific exploration and reflection. 2. How do we canvass them? This is potentially a huge task and we need to devise some strategy to make it manageable. Inviting voluntary involvement runs into the same problem we faced here in the UK in that only those already convinced of the importance of the issue will get involved. For many other potantial users, they need convincing that there is a real policy issue here, and one that demands their immediate attention. And convincing people of the priority of this issue is not easy - after all, I don't think we really know where climate change impacts should fit in the hierarchy of policy issues, or even in the subset of environmental policy issues. In the proposal we talk about a Workshop for practitioners and users. I suspect we need some form of short questionnaire we can send out to a range of potential European users asking what sort of information about climate change impacts and adaptation options would alter their perception of decisions they take. If this is done sooner rather than later we could use the publicity surrounding the Kyoto process as a way to engage attention. For example, 'The Kyoto outcome reduces estimated global warming by 2100 by 2-3 tenths of a degC (2.38 down to 2.11 under a standard scenario). Does this reduction in global warming have any significance for you and your business or for decisions you are charged with making? What information would you ideally need to have in order for you to make this judgement? (and give some examples)' Workshop I should then follow on from this survey by inviting a small number of key users to discuss with scientists what can be done to improve knowledge. Mike **************************************************************************** ********* Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162 Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ Norwich NR4 7TJ **************************************************************************** ********* For the new CRU 1961-90 mean monthly climatology look at: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~markn/carbon/nerc.htm **************************** Mean temp. in C.England during 1997 has been about 1.0deg C above the 1961-90 average. December needs an anomaly of about +3degC for 1997 to break the 1990 'warmest year' record **************************** The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly estimate for 1997 is +0.43deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet on record (beating 1995) **************************************************************************** ********* 1565. 1997-12-16 14:52:00 ______________________________________________________ date: Tue, 16 Dec 1997 14:52:00 -0700 from: Connie Woodhouse subject: Re: rainday reconstruction data to: Keith Briffa Dear Keith, Dave and I are glad to hear that you and your Ph.d student are interested in putting our rainday reconstructions to use, and we'd be happy to share them with you! It sounds like Tim has some interesting applications in mind and if he finds he can use these series, I'd be interested in hearing about his results. I've appended the 6 reconstructed series at the end of this message -let me know if they come through O.K. (1983 should be the last year). I can easily put the file on our anonymous FTP server if that is better for you. I'm also including a table of calibration/verification results so you know what you are getting. I have a set of maximum winter temperature reconstructions for the same regions and if you are interested in those as well, let me know. Happy holidays! Connie Connie Woodhouse NOAA Paleoclimatology Program National Geophysical Data Center 325 Broadway St. Boulder, CO 80303 (303)497-6297 woodhous@ngdc.noaa.gov ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CALIBRATION AND VERIFICATION STATISTICS FOR RECONSTRUCTED RAINY DAY SERIES region #pred. adj R2 F cal/ver r cal/ver RE cal/ver sign test CAC 6 0.56 11.6 .780/.699 .608/.481 40/12 37/15 CACO 8 0.56 9.2 .795/.699 .632/.475 47/5 45/5 NAZNM 8 0.73 18.0 .878/.815 .770/.660 46/6 43/9 SCAZ 8 0.73 17.8 .877/.810 .768/.651 45/7 42/10 CAZNM 8 0.67 13.7 .848/.760 .719/.567 45/7 45/7 SAZNM 7 0.71 18.5 .864/.802 .746/.637 45/7 45/7 RECONSTRUCED RAINY DAY SERIES yr cacrd cacord naznmrd scazrd caznmrd saznmrd 1702 1.25448 1.54846 1.02431 1.12069 1.77165 0.841835 1703 -0.9082 -1.0735 -0.46598 -0.4741 0.565426 -0.22656 1704 0.277248 0.802013 0.250286 0.411572 -0.31089 0.220507 1705 1.27926 0.645604 0.502238 0.179552 0.431676 0.581484 1706 0.029259 0.266589 0.12629 -0.055153 1.21681 0.891842 1707 -0.54023 -0.55642 -1.5836 -1.5329 0.0763783 -0.71826 1708 -0.12323 0.372743 -0.18506 -0.021075 0.714542 0.2453 1709 0.287747 -0.20076 -0.00897 -0.23216 0.213266 -0.21186 1710 0.672166 0.933012 0.780002 0.775587 1.21705 1.33019 1711 -0.003292 0.248458 0.009933 0.146824 -0.25344 0.154057 1712 0.611814 0.929844 0.708681 0.776152 0.729544 0.643183 1713 -0.94264 -0.9503 -0.025237 -0.027049 0.169366 0.0632851 1714 -0.73183 -0.64268 -0.34091 -0.19047 -0.22308 0.0301967 1715 -0.72687 -0.86557 -0.67638 -0.50721 -0.42718 -0.17732 1716 -0.8989 -1.1247 -1.1652 -1.2568 -0.50283 -1.2297 1717 0.578068 0.750167 0.073276 0.153446 1.21197 0.320586 1718 1.53768 1.61626 0.853172 0.758846 0.78163 -0.01497 1719 1.48735 1.87451 0.524044 0.495045 0.270375 0.0367838 1720 1.17298 1.10645 0.81808 0.655172 1.52374 0.905025 1721 -0.33264 -0.028105 -0.33298 -0.27928 0.9471 0.425338 1722 -1.9243 -1.3894 -1.0488 -0.93603 -0.14082 -0.048835 1723 0.673184 0.800287 0.244821 0.264148 0.654925 0.509952 1724 -0.34602 -0.96751 -0.83786 -0.66475 -1.3284 -1.5633 1725 0.087853 0.158555 1.26394 1.18615 -0.156 0.990861 1726 0.887239 1.14361 1.21214 1.10514 0.338168 1.745 1727 0.110462 0.284494 0.320198 0.433685 0.669501 0.579342 1728 -1.9676 -2.3025 -1.667 -1.4428 -0.95583 -2.2022 1729 -2.2669 -2.0642 -2.4334 -2.1306 -1.428 -1.0869 1730 -0.21662 -0.38721 -0.59993 -0.81491 -0.67406 0.0689565 1731 1.39063 0.669419 0.66937 0.614535 -0.015286 0.0264665 1732 0.137319 0.323795 0.807206 0.872051 -0.3014 0.30728 1733 -0.63884 -0.66093 -0.94617 -1.2202 0.288513 0.0763757 1734 0.245347 0.476118 0.057728 0.019361 0.983608 -0.61153 1735 -1.7778 -0.96611 -1.7883 -1.6121 -0.10793 -0.79839 1736 0.607663 -0.018427 0.526772 0.563868 0.300409 -0.18794 1737 -0.6487 -0.76839 -0.048508 0.130806 -0.59862 -0.055865 1738 0.614024 0.337702 1.03334 0.972569 -0.29869 0.343591 1739 -0.61658 -1.0595 -0.59312 -0.72834 -0.46738 -0.026387 1740 0.428017 0.606562 0.2013 0.176467 0.4763 0.157369 1741 0.883307 0.929748 0.600415 0.671896 0.578908 0.615047 1742 -0.57487 -0.47512 -0.42408 -0.58744 0.0697031 0.578687 1743 1.14585 1.07216 1.13721 1.15381 0.666589 0.635653 1744 0.26424 0.541099 -0.015232 -0.069122 -0.3601 0.132554 1745 0.896023 1.01838 1.18258 1.13253 0.380419 0.878442 1746 1.34923 2.1869 1.3903 1.3251 0.781123 1.39263 1747 1.61825 2.30847 1.99777 2.24423 1.12023 1.27143 1748 -1.8622 -2.2187 -2.871 -2.546 -2.7453 -2.8509 1749 0.190146 0.015803 0.85142 0.773328 1.0834 0.737059 1750 -0.91855 -0.9948 -1.1562 -1.1915 -0.39095 -0.26497 1751 -1.2174 -0.80363 -0.72782 -0.76825 -0.21756 -0.48928 1752 -2.0955 -1.8944 -1.5965 -1.618 -0.48913 -0.90545 1753 -0.15318 -0.29846 -1.1069 -1.3584 0.328951 -0.86187 1754 -0.97092 -1.3476 -0.28161 -0.5257 1.37293 0.681642 1755 0.031722 0.182566 -0.19222 -0.092583 0.000328799 0.112764 1756 0.66361 0.206831 -0.068926 -0.00474 -0.16807 -0.72604 1757 0.11495 -0.60878 -0.29451 -0.52488 -0.75077 -1.2189 1758 0.697699 0.918214 0.737791 0.63928 0.531266 0.948508 1759 0.649264 1.24972 0.866766 0.950454 0.743556 1.54196 1760 0.923324 0.974164 0.356492 0.373994 0.459813 0.0417183 1761 -0.038596 0.515543 -0.47221 -0.59321 0.366784 0.308316 1762 0.937574 1.01129 1.28773 1.36388 0.805258 1.06789 1763 -1.4771 -1.5166 -0.74039 -0.6778 -1.4634 -0.97007 1764 0.44114 0.425426 0.83996 0.915301 0.615984 1.03944 1765 -1.2484 -1.4539 -1.6723 -1.5892 -0.42551 -0.032192 1766 1.32688 1.58407 0.979149 0.863427 0.946914 0.816816 1767 0.179817 0.264586 -0.003222 -0.025593 -0.35301 -0.52241 1768 0.619699 0.941276 1.11964 1.23 0.815217 0.731122 1769 -0.00493 -0.054712 -0.60511 -0.4688 0.084151 -0.61721 1770 -0.5164 -0.48724 -0.78451 -0.8518 0.176032 0.217254 1771 1.0817 1.23834 1.19459 1.2604 0.778449 1.25619 1772 0.090537 0.330952 0.338877 0.546911 -0.19026 -0.016911 1773 -0.92824 -1.2008 -1.8806 -1.5448 -1.8742 -2.4671 1774 0.078307 -0.29432 0.02883 0.072911 -0.16022 -0.88745 1775 0.378635 0.124332 0.141695 0.138304 0.0905498 -0.30181 1776 -0.28899 -0.41071 -0.039077 -0.084237 0.499968 0.114731 1777 -1.9048 -2.3492 -2.1188 -2.2075 0.129274 -0.79819 1778 -1.4222 -1.4091 -0.67601 -0.72435 -0.35351 -0.26101 1779 -0.32901 0.123323 0.592129 0.726301 0.520013 1.1447 1780 -0.44057 -0.83416 -0.83369 -0.83516 -0.83047 -0.90608 1781 -0.18986 0.408078 0.03127 0.063763 0.473482 0.415947 1782 -1.3574 -1.6272 -1.9611 -2.1345 -0.41775 -0.90978 1783 1.21515 1.38735 0.805538 0.654621 1.83609 1.56799 1784 1.14784 0.964595 0.930086 0.804251 0.855605 0.877785 1785 -0.42111 -0.66002 0.27152 0.535394 -0.9514 -0.61415 1786 0.099787 0.017477 0.052182 0.141041 -1.3419 -0.49159 1787 0.950486 1.07639 1.31929 1.224 1.0539 1.37843 1788 -1.0426 -0.87507 -1.2019 -1.1267 -0.43639 -0.54321 1789 0.043 -0.61293 -0.57049 -0.67535 0.259112 -0.38192 1790 -1.0436 -1.1959 0.007417 -0.19836 -0.26446 -0.20435 1791 1.15414 1.35891 1.0831 1.01367 0.61544 1.59626 1792 1.31697 1.21827 0.814989 0.699229 0.295771 0.574101 1793 0.988192 1.64939 0.829962 0.636046 1.77159 1.21711 1794 -0.82333 -0.5188 -0.95368 -0.88828 -0.4394 -1.0321 1795 -0.57011 -0.049942 -0.66944 -0.49861 0.800705 0.234113 1796 -0.69243 -0.76757 -0.6117 -0.54131 -0.87221 -1.4236 1797 0.051372 -0.15711 0.080961 -0.041856 -0.85001 -0.63563 1798 -0.087498 -0.11659 0.062961 0.21244 0.287862 0.0746161 1799 0.256285 -0.14581 0.263625 0.154123 0.224867 0.0380084 1800 -0.2507 0.064959 -0.53939 -0.28695 0.212081 0.623225 1801 -0.63498 -0.076454 -0.52479 -0.39588 -0.5202 -0.10835 1802 0.714699 0.745857 0.059967 -0.11978 0.732371 0.0750364 1803 -0.24381 -0.16714 -0.79144 -0.81686 0.228818 -0.64562 1804 0.758847 0.867309 0.989684 1.01888 0.729626 0.468497 1805 -0.64788 -0.74888 -0.007793 0.18514 -0.51876 -0.50472 1806 -0.52768 -0.52704 -1.2621 -1.184 -1.5213 -1.3922 1807 -0.005223 -0.41586 0.114913 0.053801 0.738024 0.498174 1808 0.044213 -0.39081 0.310692 0.333271 -0.24714 -0.41113 1809 -1.8959 -1.9074 -1.0729 -1.2383 0.564393 0.925181 1810 -0.12296 0.308865 -0.46045 -0.31972 0.328496 0.128819 1811 0.72828 0.657435 0.704618 0.78196 -0.11225 -0.42516 1812 0.037137 0.13013 -0.13618 -0.1113 0.396605 0.157332 1813 -0.71024 -0.69853 -0.62454 -0.33747 -0.31865 -0.75485 1814 -0.21234 -0.27556 0.18547 0.116184 -0.22075 0.0694108 1815 0.22208 0.863106 0.446889 0.409431 0.477958 1.46466 1816 1.43331 2.21973 1.66466 1.64311 0.522638 1.67023 1817 1.46479 1.94552 1.44308 1.67358 0.381687 0.378462 1818 0.338396 -0.20985 -1.2741 -1.2018 -1.9864 -3.3067 1819 -0.53239 -0.52153 -0.91948 -1.1592 -0.61633 -1.7006 1820 -1.4911 -1.5052 -1.4518 -1.5652 -0.3223 -0.46039 1821 1.12485 0.967604 1.19838 1.3157 1.27145 0.888769 1822 -1.6271 -2.0873 -1.3547 -1.1986 -1.3376 -1.6455 1823 -1.2922 -1.4495 -0.7917 -0.83977 -0.21586 -0.032057 1824 0.233946 0.159218 -0.11782 -0.14606 0.373719 0.762767 1825 0.893095 0.59948 1.47708 1.48624 1.34281 1.33598 1826 0.92374 0.550497 0.490474 0.417633 0.987492 0.68122 1827 0.06812 0.233779 -0.66133 -0.65857 -0.30474 0.157454 1828 1.36014 1.30325 1.4297 1.21651 1.75074 1.90351 1829 -2.3644 -2.3947 -1.8404 -1.8624 -0.72679 -0.77137 1830 -0.72379 0.154052 0.158089 0.000648 0.169308 1.20203 1831 1.30049 0.227943 0.306331 0.326277 0.0262691 -0.24823 1832 0.344826 0.330363 0.544037 0.520011 -0.66905 -0.020608 1833 1.33151 1.53779 0.761121 0.739082 0.442552 0.740865 1834 -0.40583 0.197445 -0.51989 -0.3819 0.236992 0.290095 1835 -0.16871 -0.56515 0.1152 0.084086 -0.0011605 -0.2594 1836 -0.43742 0.030522 -0.35259 -0.29359 -0.74975 -0.38069 1837 0.747773 1.02542 0.292591 0.228115 0.0104818 0.509596 1838 1.20048 1.0174 0.876285 0.692971 0.430681 0.323322 1839 1.15974 1.54326 1.08188 0.987907 1.17758 1.02739 1840 0.686985 1.2799 0.347682 0.283905 0.934911 0.638944 1841 -1.5478 -1.7028 -1.3596 -1.2312 0.106572 -0.83831 1842 -1.5459 -1.4222 -1.5018 -1.3428 -0.93411 -1.2868 1843 -1.5526 -2.0233 -1.2061 -1.3648 -0.30898 -0.68272 1844 0.288419 0.041782 0.372279 0.355563 0.860725 0.35818 1845 -2.3227 -1.725 -1.6178 -1.4779 -0.24528 -0.20638 1846 0.668448 1.26715 0.594496 0.893006 0.196106 -0.15931 1847 -1.0841 -0.96332 -1.3271 -1.1597 -1.5371 -1.9354 1848 1.01245 0.540566 0.691559 0.613852 0.367489 0.231925 1849 1.16715 1.17732 1.27667 1.21505 0.956357 1.42917 1850 1.25665 1.16925 1.41725 1.4818 0.524322 0.422065 1851 -0.97853 -0.84261 -1.1668 -1.1565 -0.84013 -0.79771 1852 0.214116 0.044301 0.971294 0.854281 0.78829 0.593812 1853 0.60346 0.823325 0.645866 0.54674 0.746892 0.925037 1854 -0.072892 -0.43819 -0.84049 -0.87193 -1.0257 -1.0044 1855 1.01488 1.06599 0.890313 0.858303 1.02221 1.62332 1856 -0.73978 -0.7438 -0.94776 -0.80439 0.60847 0.0831359 1857 -3.0119 -2.3671 -2.1257 -1.9167 -0.12224 0.100313 1858 0.475722 1.08522 0.89448 0.983173 0.744941 1.053 1859 -0.64525 -0.85799 -0.7946 -0.73088 -0.74659 -0.69915 1860 -0.24662 -0.029839 0.376654 0.339822 0.508609 -0.036371 1861 -0.2226 -0.11335 -1.0068 -0.72923 -1.9351 -1.6376 1862 1.65461 0.761456 0.801538 0.563036 -0.26065 -0.28827 1863 0.029195 -0.39032 -0.33044 -0.47097 -0.68915 -1.3442 1864 -1.3688 -1.5917 -1.5675 -1.5402 -1.0111 -1.1906 1865 0.360705 0.345263 0.856404 0.811917 0.386193 0.779749 1866 1.0769 0.824765 0.809523 0.57343 0.248701 0.775165 1867 0.936875 0.717944 1.31201 1.3665 0.606256 1.46246 1868 1.55418 1.70264 2.01262 1.78482 0.721407 1.45962 1869 0.339341 0.74418 0.595993 0.759838 1.33424 1.10431 1870 -1.2768 -0.73725 -1.7523 -1.7256 -0.1398 -0.46735 1871 -1.0833 -1.2185 -1.9411 -1.8783 0.103577 -1.5219 1872 -1.1179 -1.1665 -0.83493 -0.83308 -0.33486 -1.7575 1873 -0.85464 -0.43479 -0.75352 -0.63117 -0.40704 -0.10964 1874 0.851421 0.209143 0.602804 0.654431 0.624064 0.4725 1875 -0.74415 -0.69297 -0.27403 -0.22547 0.105718 -0.033109 1876 -0.2402 0.059469 -0.79988 -0.82533 -0.38751 -0.33138 1877 -0.8442 -0.9662 -0.13762 -0.17857 1.51188 1.2405 1878 -0.061707 -0.19891 0.164109 0.210809 -0.589 -0.6544 1879 -1.8192 -1.592 -0.61924 -0.38774 -0.51005 -0.018122 1880 0.06247 0.063163 -0.69042 -0.57226 -0.83765 -1.2032 1881 -0.31037 0.00474 -0.66706 -0.86139 0.149761 -0.62777 1882 -0.091638 0.217229 0.124194 0.058721 1.23126 0.804236 1883 -0.57703 -0.56112 -0.57374 -0.60388 -0.43482 -0.52583 1884 1.27102 1.14503 1.09961 1.09717 0.490216 0.466467 1885 0.761728 0.650703 1.17932 1.09225 0.182765 0.624842 1886 0.727349 0.902145 0.14566 0.171931 0.410978 0.45632 1887 -0.062985 0.662135 -0.51942 -0.44643 0.133746 0.299382 1888 1.10579 0.877116 0.936455 0.837658 1.1132 1.14885 1889 0.655696 0.591911 0.664618 0.688082 0.305025 0.128232 1890 0.857505 0.40081 0.09464 -0.051475 -0.87996 -0.50065 1891 1.6226 1.90612 1.54727 1.56097 -0.0059595 0.706527 1892 0.633065 0.396128 0.541752 0.596279 -0.082918 -0.52809 1893 -1.08 -0.61302 -1.1734 -1.0212 -0.60208 -0.8685 1894 -0.54305 -0.95668 -1.5833 -1.8053 -0.29667 -1.268 1895 0.242913 -0.76012 0.641353 0.678934 1.01918 -0.32512 1896 -2.4482 -1.8956 -1.877 -1.7533 -0.76135 -0.42664 1897 1.02755 0.933783 0.631616 0.543925 2.2425 1.12855 1898 -1.7853 -2.1366 -0.84441 -0.87106 1.79384 0.338657 1899 -2.8949 -2.5367 -2.2923 -2.001 -1.7452 -1.2039 1900 -0.56841 -0.67329 -0.63959 -0.70209 -0.37397 -0.53134 1901 0.740818 0.659595 0.958977 0.961921 0.113372 -0.3862 1902 -0.71216 -0.62333 -1.008 -0.92552 -0.1019 -0.014765 1903 0.665075 0.790292 0.780258 0.697624 0.0991035 0.169635 1904 -0.45394 -0.66179 -0.89243 -0.81759 -1.2303 -0.61814 1905 1.19682 1.15992 1.10595 0.976298 0.841299 1.25774 1906 1.4417 1.05624 1.07252 0.846217 1.07362 1.20342 1907 0.655052 0.665343 0.972953 0.786183 2.19032 2.06049 1908 -0.17266 -0.12623 0.092707 0.102728 0.79011 1.62115 1909 0.604283 0.857698 0.806577 0.901901 -1.4361 -0.47515 1910 0.708982 0.233659 -0.28881 -0.29687 -0.52429 -0.51446 1911 0.208395 0.195109 0.375018 0.295161 0.0766035 -0.22666 1912 -0.10834 0.487179 -0.011026 0.196206 1.62417 1.5349 1913 -0.59408 -0.36711 -1.2843 -1.1802 -0.42428 -1.4066 1914 0.46865 0.297789 0.655383 0.607261 -0.14072 -0.076503 1915 0.656684 1.08625 0.766594 0.743993 0.646269 1.56265 1916 1.11354 1.27649 1.08878 0.979777 0.383927 0.652226 1917 0.113486 0.416883 0.055055 0.107812 0.544421 0.211588 1918 -0.4938 -0.66071 -1.7475 -1.582 -0.81642 -1.2885 1919 -0.024519 0.291753 0.410666 0.469707 0.69382 1.05197 1920 0.647242 1.10888 0.640968 0.644224 0.592004 0.743286 1921 -0.55326 0.258486 0.364373 0.238631 -1.0207 -0.68535 1922 0.645261 0.108716 0.226033 0.477578 -0.55187 -0.92035 1923 -1.0856 -0.99503 -1.1341 -1.3013 -1.3925 -1.4947 1924 -0.16434 0.148059 0.778885 0.927165 0.504159 1.06169 1925 -1.0022 -2.0312 -1.6509 -2.0093 -1.9638 -1.9986 1926 0.477261 0.363118 0.713538 0.864298 1.28854 1.33751 1927 -0.76958 -0.8497 -0.5953 -0.4927 -0.048214 -0.24846 1928 -1.0388 -1.1126 -0.77082 -0.8151 0.134148 -0.36996 1929 -0.47071 -0.018426 -0.35184 -0.53054 0.867222 0.0886474 1930 0.31851 0.289248 -0.86699 -0.80654 1.26158 0.471643 1931 -0.30983 0.690454 -0.17964 -0.00142 0.0596771 -0.13211 1932 0.473928 0.315965 0.642625 0.645642 0.73072 0.668656 1933 -0.6919 0.173722 -0.12069 0.073752 -0.63376 -0.33173 1934 -0.78198 -1.3876 -1.3575 -1.6847 -1.2922 -0.91424 1935 1.00116 0.645149 0.749899 0.878943 0.464432 0.389898 1936 -0.62488 -0.48915 -0.17351 -0.091655 -0.68645 -0.61741 1937 1.45945 1.29177 1.21925 1.26935 0.268083 0.247289 1938 0.098551 0.203858 0.0823 0.167422 -0.67367 -0.2277 1939 0.395468 0.086598 0.003857 0.043239 -0.34011 -0.26604 1940 -0.46967 -0.26827 -0.76535 -0.73944 -0.12886 -0.41799 1941 0.629453 0.978394 0.942183 0.880019 1.16377 1.56892 1942 0.062084 -0.1595 0.291858 0.185759 0.162552 0.284425 1943 -0.54337 -0.1664 -0.38813 -0.33101 -0.54414 -0.34989 1944 0.263934 0.248995 -0.018085 0.017089 0.125334 -0.098362 1945 -0.21046 0.640473 0.930921 1.09394 -0.071326 0.493078 1946 -0.17614 -0.17156 -1.0755 -1.0253 -0.99736 -0.87947 1947 -0.50169 -0.55222 -0.90994 -1.0364 -0.6971 -1.2955 1948 -0.4513 -0.76374 0.287834 0.074056 0.734564 0.639413 1949 0.288889 -0.2232 0.289985 0.266906 1.05042 0.749086 1950 -1.5197 -1.6857 -1.3859 -1.278 -1.1398 -1.3281 1951 -1.5307 -1.6344 -1.8004 -1.4748 -1.4001 -1.5463 1952 1.07608 0.717308 1.24093 1.10784 0.816179 0.332729 1953 -0.34452 -0.43344 -0.42238 -0.2872 -0.17828 -0.26041 1954 0.20802 -0.34038 -0.3561 -0.36426 -0.86427 -0.99957 1955 -0.20843 0.123289 -0.47654 -0.50636 -1.1084 -0.57739 1956 -0.2271 -0.72555 -0.14928 -0.29186 -0.41857 -0.85971 1957 0.384481 -0.053952 -0.045387 -0.063283 0.310674 -0.19113 1958 0.585293 0.882799 0.643172 0.730598 1.46325 1.15868 1959 -0.81488 -0.43157 -1.3332 -1.1887 -0.20437 -0.68596 1960 -0.16247 0.212235 0.15103 0.024585 1.36695 0.964946 1961 -1.2278 -1.4602 -0.78143 -0.88742 -0.0054617 -0.50721 1962 0.644313 0.525026 1.23158 1.28324 0.690591 1.04016 1963 -1.3801 -1.0876 -0.22654 0.021363 -0.25073 0.499503 1964 -0.008095 -0.1835 -0.43442 -0.68451 -0.58303 -0.30425 1965 1.23467 0.811636 1.26001 1.22962 1.39188 0.859808 1966 0.431492 0.568228 0.73733 0.945285 0.839919 0.856627 1967 -0.062243 -0.43415 -0.99464 -0.97488 -1.2006 -1.2074 1968 -0.13361 1.00362 0.447554 0.515472 1.29935 1.75386 1969 1.34781 0.801611 0.702603 0.560931 0.584007 -0.42542 1970 -0.12478 0.372167 -0.29697 -0.20668 0.54604 -0.10442 1971 -0.7019 -1.0884 -1.5324 -1.5871 -1.1312 -1.6924 1972 -0.26469 -0.096981 -0.68515 -0.73412 -0.27065 -0.3305 1973 1.18762 1.00846 1.53561 1.54988 0.559348 1.10883 1974 -0.39798 -0.76785 -0.62203 -0.65773 -1.0404 -1.1873 1975 0.24337 0.01053 0.768272 0.66484 0.755411 0.568139 1976 -0.69479 -0.16246 -0.12615 -0.026035 0.302191 0.111637 1977 -0.6111 -0.16475 -1.0315 -0.93369 -1.3835 -0.88356 1978 0.98403 1.04812 0.888103 0.893478 0.550291 1.07998 1979 0.985048 1.14838 1.20398 1.18739 0.848654 1.27333 1980 0.901853 0.73196 1.11958 1.00616 0.817132 0.470623 1981 -1.0843 -0.85858 -1.18 -1.0502 -0.63752 -0.45773 1982 0.728688 0.542266 0.650182 0.559198 0.0823839 1.02887 1983 1.44744 1.92004 1.48732 1.4261 1.43194 1.36015